Cost of illness among patients with diabetic foot ulcer in Turkey

PubMed Central

Oksuz, Ergun; Malhan, Simten; Sonmez, Bilge; Numanoglu Tekin, Rukiye

2016-01-01

AIM To evaluate the annual cost of patients with Wagner grade 3-4-5 diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) from the public payer’s perspective in Turkey. METHODS This study was conducted focused on a time frame of one year from the public payer’s perspective. Cost-of-illness (COI) methodology, which was developed by the World Health Organization, was used in the generation of cost data. By following a clinical path with the COI method, the main total expenses were reached by multiplying the number of uses of each expense item, the percentage of cases that used them and unit costs. Clinical guidelines and real data specific to Turkey were used in the calculation of the direct costs. Monte Carlo Simulation was used in the study as a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS The following were calculated in DFU treatment from the public payer’s perspective: The annual average per patient outpatient costs $579.5 (4.1%), imaging test costs $283.2 (2.0%), laboratory test costs $284.8 (2.0%), annual average per patient cost of intervention, rehabilitation and trainings $2291.7 (16.0%), annual average per patient cost of drugs used $2545.8 (17.8%) and annual average per patient cost of medical materials used in DFU treatment $735.0 (5.1%). The average annual per patient cost for hospital admission is $7357.4 (51.5%). The average per patient complication cost for DFU is $210.3 (1.5%). The average annual per patient cost of DFU treatment in Turkey is $14287.70. As a result of the sensitivity analysis, the standard deviation of the analysis was $5706.60 (n = 5000, mean = $14146.8, 95%CI: $13988.6-$14304.9). CONCLUSION The health expenses per person are $-PPP 1045 in 2014 in Turkey and the average annual per patient cost for DFU is 14-fold of said amount. The total health expense in 2014 in Turkey is $-PPP 80.3 billion and the total DFU cost has a 3% share in the total annual health expenses for Turkey. Hospital costs are the highest component in DFU disease costs. In order to prevent DFU, training of the patients at risk and raising consciousness in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) will provide benefits in terms of economy. Appropriate and efficient treatment of DM is a health intervention that can prevent complications. PMID:27795820

PM2.5 Population Exposure in New Delhi Using a Probabilistic Simulation Framework.

PubMed

Saraswat, Arvind; Kandlikar, Milind; Brauer, Michael; Srivastava, Arun

2016-03-15

This paper presents a Geographical Information System (GIS) based probabilistic simulation framework to estimate PM2.5 population exposure in New Delhi, India. The framework integrates PM2.5 output from spatiotemporal LUR models and trip distribution data using a Gravity model based on zonal data for population, employment and enrollment in educational institutions. Time-activity patterns were derived from a survey of randomly sampled individuals (n = 1012) and in-vehicle exposure was estimated using microenvironmental monitoring data based on field measurements. We simulated population exposure for three different scenarios to capture stay-at-home populations (Scenario 1), working population exposed to near-road concentrations during commutes (Scenario 2), and the working population exposed to on-road concentrations during commutes (Scenario 3). Simulated annual average levels of PM2.5 exposure across the entire city were very high, and particularly severe in the winter months: ∼200 μg m(-3) in November, roughly four times higher compared to the lower levels in the monsoon season. Mean annual exposures ranged from 109 μg m(-3) (IQR: 97-120 μg m(-3)) for Scenario 1, to 121 μg m(-3) (IQR: 110-131 μg m(-3)), and 125 μg m(-3) (IQR: 114-136 μ gm(-3)) for Scenarios 2 and 3 respectively. Ignoring the effects of mobility causes the average annual PM2.5 population exposure to be underestimated by only 11%.

Effect of inter-annual variability in pasture growth and irrigation response on farm productivity and profitability based on biophysical and farm systems modelling.

PubMed

Vogeler, Iris; Mackay, Alec; Vibart, Ronaldo; Rendel, John; Beautrais, Josef; Dennis, Samuel

2016-09-15

Farm system and nutrient budget models are increasingly being used in analysis to inform on farm decision making and evaluate land use policy options at regional scales. These analyses are generally based on the use of average annual pasture yields. In New Zealand (NZ), like in many countries, there is considerable inter-annual variation in pasture growth rates, due to climate. In this study a modelling approach was used to (i) include inter-annual variability as an integral part of the analysis and (ii) test the approach in an economic analysis of irrigation in a case study within the Hawkes Bay Region of New Zealand. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to generate pasture dry matter yields (DMY) for 20 different years and under both dryland and irrigation. The generated DMY were linked to outputs from farm-scale modelling for both Sheep and Beef Systems (Farmaxx Pro) and Dairy Systems (Farmax® Dairy Pro) to calculate farm production over 20 different years. Variation in DMY and associated livestock production due to inter-annual variation in climate was large, with a coefficient of variations up to 20%. Irrigation decreased this inter-annual variation. On average irrigation, with unlimited available water, increased income by $831 to 1195/ha, but when irrigation was limited to 250mm/ha/year income only increased by $525 to 883/ha. Using pasture responses in individual years to capturing the inter-annual variation, rather than the pasture response averaged over 20years resulted in lower financial benefits. In the case study income from irrigation based on an average year were 10 to >20% higher compared with those obtained from individual years. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Twelve-month, 12 km resolution North American WRF-Chem v3.4 air quality simulation: performance evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tessum, C. W.; Hill, J. D.; Marshall, J. D.

We present results from and evaluate the performance of a 12-month, 12 km horizontal resolution year 2005 air pollution simulation for the contiguous United States using the WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry) meteorology and chemical transport model (CTM). We employ the 2005 US National Emissions Inventory, the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (RACM), and the Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model for Europe (MADE) with a volatility basis set (VBS) secondary aerosol module. Overall, model performance is comparable to contemporary modeling efforts used for regulatory and health-effects analysis, with an annual average daytime ozone (O 3) mean fractional bias (MFB) ofmore » 12% and an annual average fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) MFB of −1%. WRF-Chem, as configured here, tends to overpredict total PM 2.5 at some high concentration locations and generally overpredicts average 24 h O 3 concentrations. Performance is better at predicting daytime-average and daily peak O 3 concentrations, which are more relevant for regulatory and health effects analyses relative to annual average values. Predictive performance for PM 2.5 subspecies is mixed: the model overpredicts particulate sulfate (MFB = 36%), underpredicts particulate nitrate (MFB = −110%) and organic carbon (MFB = −29%), and relatively accurately predicts particulate ammonium (MFB = 3%) and elemental carbon (MFB = 3%), so that the accuracy in total PM 2.5 predictions is to some extent a function of offsetting over- and underpredictions of PM 2.5 subspecies. Model predictive performance for PM 2.5 and its subspecies is in general worse in winter and in the western US than in other seasons and regions, suggesting spatial and temporal opportunities for future WRF-Chem model development and evaluation.« less

Twelve-month, 12 km resolution North American WRF-Chem v3.4 air quality simulation: performance evaluation

DOE PAGES

Tessum, C. W.; Hill, J. D.; Marshall, J. D.

2015-04-07

We present results from and evaluate the performance of a 12-month, 12 km horizontal resolution year 2005 air pollution simulation for the contiguous United States using the WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry) meteorology and chemical transport model (CTM). We employ the 2005 US National Emissions Inventory, the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (RACM), and the Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model for Europe (MADE) with a volatility basis set (VBS) secondary aerosol module. Overall, model performance is comparable to contemporary modeling efforts used for regulatory and health-effects analysis, with an annual average daytime ozone (O 3) mean fractional bias (MFB) ofmore » 12% and an annual average fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) MFB of −1%. WRF-Chem, as configured here, tends to overpredict total PM 2.5 at some high concentration locations and generally overpredicts average 24 h O 3 concentrations. Performance is better at predicting daytime-average and daily peak O 3 concentrations, which are more relevant for regulatory and health effects analyses relative to annual average values. Predictive performance for PM 2.5 subspecies is mixed: the model overpredicts particulate sulfate (MFB = 36%), underpredicts particulate nitrate (MFB = −110%) and organic carbon (MFB = −29%), and relatively accurately predicts particulate ammonium (MFB = 3%) and elemental carbon (MFB = 3%), so that the accuracy in total PM 2.5 predictions is to some extent a function of offsetting over- and underpredictions of PM 2.5 subspecies. Model predictive performance for PM 2.5 and its subspecies is in general worse in winter and in the western US than in other seasons and regions, suggesting spatial and temporal opportunities for future WRF-Chem model development and evaluation.« less

Evaluation on the cost-effective threshold of osteoporosis treatment on elderly women in China using discrete event simulation model.

PubMed

Ni, W; Jiang, Y

2017-02-01

This study used a simulation model to determine the cost-effective threshold of fracture risk to treat osteoporosis among elderly Chinese women. Osteoporosis treatment is cost-effective among average-risk women who are at least 75 years old and above-average-risk women who are younger than 75 years old. Aging of the Chinese population is imposing increasing economic burden of osteoporosis. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment among the senior Chinese women population. A discrete event simulation model using age-specific probabilities of hip fracture, clinical vertebral fracture, wrist fracture, humerus fracture, and other fracture; costs (2015 US dollars); and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated. The willingness to pay (WTP) for a QALY in China was compared with the calculated ICER to decide the cost-effectiveness. To determine the absolute 10-year hip fracture probability at which the osteoporosis treatment became cost-effective, average age-specific probabilities for all fractures were multiplied by a relative risk (RR) that was systematically varied from 0 to 10 until the WTP threshold was observed for treatment relative to no intervention. Sensitivity analyses were also performed to evaluate the impacts from WTP and annual treatment costs. In baseline analysis, simulated ICERs were higher than the WTP threshold among Chinese women younger than 75, but much lower than the WTP among the older population. Sensitivity analyses indicated that cost-effectiveness could vary due to a higher WTP threshold or a lower annual treatment cost. A 30 % increase in WTP or a 30 % reduction in annual treatment costs will make osteoporosis treatment cost-effective for Chinese women population from 55 to 85. The current study provides evidence that osteoporosis treatment is cost-effective among a subpopulation of Chinese senior women. The results also indicate that the cost-effectiveness of using osteoporosis treatment is sensitive to the WTP threshold and annual treatment costs.

Growth process and model simulation of three different classes of Schima superba in a natural subtropical forest in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Hui; Deng, Xiangwen; Ouyang, Shuai; Chen, Lijun; Chu, Yonghe

2017-01-01

Schima superba is an important fire-resistant, high-quality timber species in southern China. Growth in height, diameter at breast height (DBH), and volume of the three different classes (overtopped, average and dominant) of S. superba were examined in a natural subtropical forest. Four growth models (Richards, edited Weibull, Logistic and Gompertz) were selected to fit the growth of the three different classes of trees. The results showed that there was a fluctuation phenomenon in height and DBH current annual growth process of all three classes. Multiple intersections were found between current annual increment (CAI) and mean annual increment (MAI) curves of both height and DBH, but there was no intersection between volume CAI and MAI curves. All selected models could be used to fit the growth of the three classes of S. superba, with determinant coefficients above 0.9637. However, the edited Weibull model performed best with the highest R2 and the lowest root of mean square error (RMSE). S. superba is a fast-growing tree with a higher growth rate during youth. The height and DBH CAIs of overtopped, average and dominant trees reached growth peaks at ages 5-10, 10-15 and 15-20 years, respectively. According to model simulation, the volume CAIs of overtopped, average and dominant trees reached growth peaks at ages 17, 55 and 76 years, respectively. The biological rotation ages of the overtopped, average and dominant trees of S. superba were 29, 85 and 128 years, respectively.

Modeling the clinical and economic implications of obesity using microsimulation.

PubMed

Su, W; Huang, J; Chen, F; Iacobucci, W; Mocarski, M; Dall, T M; Perreault, L

2015-01-01

The obesity epidemic has raised considerable public health concerns, but there are few validated longitudinal simulation models examining the human and economic cost of obesity. This paper describes a microsimulation model as a comprehensive tool to understand the relationship between body weight, health, and economic outcomes. Patient health and economic outcomes were simulated annually over 10 years using a Markov-based microsimulation model. The obese population examined is nationally representative of obese adults in the US from the 2005-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, while a matched normal weight population was constructed to have similar demographics as the obese population during the same period. Prediction equations for onset of obesity-related comorbidities, medical expenditures, economic outcomes, mortality, and quality-of-life came from published trials and studies supplemented with original research. Model validation followed International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research practice guidelines. Among surviving adults, relative to a matched normal weight population, obese adults averaged $3900 higher medical expenditures in the initial year, growing to $4600 higher expenditures in year 10. Obese adults had higher initial prevalence and higher simulated onset of comorbidities as they aged. Over 10 years, excess medical expenditures attributed to obesity averaged $4280 annually-ranging from $2820 for obese category I to $5100 for obese category II, and $8710 for obese category III. Each excess kilogram of weight contributed to $140 higher annual costs, on average, ranging from $136 (obese I) to $152 (obese III). Poor health associated with obesity increased work absenteeism and mortality, and lowered employment probability, personal income, and quality-of-life. This validated model helps illustrate why obese adults have higher medical and indirect costs relative to normal weight adults, and shows that medical costs for obese adults rise more rapidly with aging relative to normal weight adults.

Contributions of Lower Atmospheric Drivers to the Semiannual Oscillation in Thermospheric Global Mass Density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, M., Jr.; Emmert, J. T.; Drob, D. P.; Siskind, D. E.

2016-12-01

The thermosphere exhibits intra-annual variations (IAV) in globally averaged mass density that noticeably impact the drag environment of satellites in low Earth orbit. Particularly, the annual and semiannual oscillations (AO and SAO) are collectively the second largest component, after solar variability, of thermospheric global mass density variations. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the oscillations, but they have yet to be reproduced by first-principles modeling simulations. Recent studies have focused on estimating the SAO in eddy diffusion required to explain the thermospheric SAO in mass density. Less attention has been paid to the effect of lower and middle atmospheric drivers on the lower boundary of the thermosphere. In this study, we utilize the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM), to elucidate how the different lower atmospheric drivers influence IAV, and in particular the SAO of globally-averaged thermospheric mass density. We performed numerical simulations of a continuous calendar year assuming constant solar forcing, manipulating the lower atmospheric tidal forcing and gravity wave parameterization in order to quantify the SAO in thermospheric mass density attributable to different lower atmospheric drivers. The prominent initial results are as follows: (1) The "standard" TIME-GCM is capable of simulating the SAO in globally-averaged mass density at 400 km from first-principles, and its amplitude and phase compare well with empirical models; (2) The simulations suggest that seasonally varying Kzz driven by breaking GWs is not the primary driver of the SAO in upper thermospheric globally averaged mass density; (3) Preliminary analysis suggests that the SAO in the upper thermospheric mass density could be a by-product of dynamical wave transport in the mesopause region.

Ground-Water Storage Change and Land Subsidence in Tucson Basin and Avra Valley, Southeastern Arizona, 1998-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pool, Donald R.; Anderson, Mark T.

2008-01-01

Gravity and land subsidence were measured annually at wells and benchmarks within two networks in Tucson Basin and Avra Valley from 1998 to 2002. Both networks are within the Tucson Active Management Area. Annual estimates of ground-water storage change, ground-water budgets, and land subsidence were made based on the data. Additionally, estimates of specific yield were made at wells within the monitored region. Increases in gravity and water-level rises followed above-average natural recharge during winter 1998 in Tucson Basin. Overall declining gravity and water-level trends from 1999 to 2002 in Tucson Basin reflected general declining ground-water storage conditions and redistribution of the recent recharge throughout a larger region of the aquifer. The volume of stored ground-water in the monitored portion of Tucson Basin increased 200,000 acre-feet from December 1997 to February 1999; however, thereafter an imbalance in ground-water pumpage in excess of recharge led to a net storage loss for the monitoring period by February 2002. Ground-water storage in Avra Valley increased 70,000 acre-feet during the monitoring period, largely as a result of artificial and incidental recharge in the monitored region. The water-budget for the combined monitored regions of Tucson Basin and Avra Valley was dominated by about 460,000 acre-feet of recharge during 1998 followed by an average-annual recharge rate of about 80,000 acre-feet per year from 1999 to 2002. Above-average recharge during winter 1998, followed by average-annual deficit conditions, resulted in an overall balanced water budget for the monitored period. Monitored variations in storage compared well with simulated average-annual conditions, except for above-average recharge from 1998 to 1999. The difference in observed and simulated conditions indicate that ground-water flow models can be improved by including climate-related variations in recharge rates rather than invariable rates of average-annual recharge. Observed land-subsidence during the monitoring period was less than 1 inch except in the central part of Tucson Basin where land subsidence was about 2-3 inches. Correlations of gravity-based storage and water-level change at 37 wells were variable and illustrate the complex nature of the aquifer system. Storage and water-level variations were insufficient to estimate specific yield at many wells. Correlations at several wells were poor, inverse, or resulted in unreasonably large values of specific yield. Causes of anomalously correlated gravity and water levels include significant storage change in thick unsaturated zones, especially near major ephemeral channels, and multiple aquifers that are poorly connected hydraulically. Good correlation of storage and water-level change at 10 wells that were not near major streams where significant changes in unsaturated zone storage occur resulted in an average specific-yield value of 0.27.

Titanium Dioxide Nanoparticle Integrated Concrete: An Assessment of Nanoparticle Release When Exposed to UV Radiation and Wet Weather Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-23

polystyrene tubes . This procedure was repeated 30 times to simulate an annual exposure to acidic precipitation weathering. The average annual number...with diluted nitric acid in a 10 mL test tube . This sample was used for the ICP-AES analysis. The remainder of the sample solution was acid...Water at a Semiconducter Electrode. Nature 238 9. Gamer AO, Leibold E, van Ravenzwaay B. 2006. The in vitro absorption of microfine zinc oxide and

Systems analysis techniques for annual cycle thermal energy storage solar systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baylin, F.

1980-07-01

Community-scale annual cycle thermal energy storage solar systems are options for building heat and cooling. A variety of approaches are feasible in modeling ACTES solar systems. The key parameter in such efforts, average collector efficiency, is examined, followed by several approaches for simple and effective modeling. Methods are also examined for modeling building loads for structures based on both conventional and passive architectural designs. Two simulation models for sizing solar heating systems with annual storage are presented. Validation is presented by comparison with the results of a study of seasonal storage systems based on SOLANSIM, an hour-by-hour simulation. These models are presently used to examine the economic trade-off between collector field area and storage capacity. Programs directed toward developing other system components such as improved tanks and solar ponds or design tools for ACTES solar systems are examined.

Effects of alternative instream-flow criteria and water-supply demands on ground-water development options in the Big River Area, Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granato, Gregory E.; Barlow, Paul M.

2005-01-01

Transient numerical ground-water-flow simulation and optimization techniques were used to evaluate potential effects of instream-flow criteria and water-supply demands on ground-water development options and resultant streamflow depletions in the Big River Area, Rhode Island. The 35.7 square-mile (mi2) study area includes three river basins, the Big River Basin (30.9 mi2), the Carr River Basin (which drains to the Big River Basin and is 7.33 mi2 in area), the Mishnock River Basin (3.32 mi2), and a small area that drains directly to the Flat River Reservoir. The overall objective of the simulations was to determine the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn from the three basins when constrained by streamflow requirements at four locations in the study area and by maximum rates of withdrawal at 13 existing and hypothetical well sites. The instream-flow requirement for the outlet of each basin and the outfall of Lake Mishnock were the primary variables that limited the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn. A requirement to meet seasonal ground-water-demand patterns also limits the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn by up to about 50 percent of the total withdrawals without the demand-pattern constraint. Minimum water-supply demands from a public water supplier in the Mishnock River Basin, however, did not have a substantial effect on withdrawals in the Big River Basin. Hypothetical dry-period instream-flow requirements and the effects of artificial recharge also affected the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn. Results of simulations indicate that annual average ground-water withdrawal rates that range up to 16 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) can be withdrawn from the study area under simulated average hydrologic conditions depending on instream-flow criteria and water-supply demand patterns. Annual average withdrawals of 10 to 12 Mgal/d are possible for proposed demands of 3.4 Mgal/d in the Mishnock Basin, and for a constant annual instream-flow criterion of 0.5 cubic foot per second per square mile (ft3/s/mi2) at the four streamflow-constraint locations. An average withdrawal rate of 10 Mgal/d can meet estimates of future (2020) water-supply needs of surrounding communities in Rhode Island. This withdrawal rate represents about 13 percent of the average 2002 daily withdrawal from the Scituate Reservoir (76 Mgal/d), the State?s largest water supply. Average annual withdrawal rates of 6 to 7 Mgal/d are possible for more stringent instream-flow criteria that might be used during dry-period hydrologic conditions. Two example scenarios of dry-period instream-flow constraints were evaluated: first, a minimum instream flow of 0.1 cubic foot per second at any of the four constraint locations; and second, a minimum instream flow of 10 percent of the minimum monthly streamflow estimate for each streamflow-constraint location during the period 1961?2000. The State of Rhode Island is currently (2004) considering methods for establishing instream-flow criteria for streams within the State. Twelve alternative annual, seasonal, or monthly instream-flow criteria that have been or are being considered for application in southeastern New England were used as hypothetical constraints on maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates in management-model calculations. Maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates ranged from 5 to 16 Mgal/d under five alternative annual instream-flow criteria. Maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates ranged from 0 to 13.6 Mgal/d under seven alternative seasonal or monthly instream-flow criteria. The effect of ground-water withdrawals on seasonal variations in monthly average streamflows under each criterion also were compared. Evaluation of management-model results indicates that a single annual instream-flowcriterion may be sufficient to preserve seasonal variations in monthly average streamflows and meet water-supply demands in the Big River Area, because withdrawals from wells in the Big

Groundwater Salinity Simulation of a Subsurface Reservoir in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, H. T.

2015-12-01

The subsurface reservoir is located in Chi-Ken Basin, Pescadores (a group islands located at western part of Taiwan). There is no river in these remote islands and thus the freshwater supply is relied on the subsurface reservoir. The basin area of the subsurface reservoir is 2.14 km2 , discharge of groundwater is 1.27×106m3 , annual planning water supplies is 7.9×105m3 , which include for domestic agricultural usage. The annual average temperature is 23.3oC, average moisture is 80~85%, annual average rainfall is 913 mm, but ET rate is 1975mm. As there is no single river in the basin; the major recharge of groundwater is by infiltration. Chi-Ken reservoir is the first subsurface reservoir in Taiwan. Originally, the water quality of the reservoir is good. The reservoir has had the salinity problem since 1991 and it became more and more serious from 1992 until 1994. Possible reason of the salinity problem was the shortage of rainfall or the leakage of the subsurface barrier which caused the seawater intrusion. The present study aimed to determine the leakage position of subsurface barrier that caused the salinity problem. In order to perform the simulation for different possible leakage position of the subsurface reservoir, a Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) is used to define soils layer data, hydro-geological parameters, initial conditions, boundary conditions and the generation of three dimension meshes. A three dimension FEMWATER(Yeh , 1996) numerical model was adopted to find the possible leakage position of the subsurface barrier and location of seawater intrusion by comparing the simulation of different possible leakage with the observations. 1.By assuming the leakage position in the bottom of barrier, the simulated numerical result matched the observation better than the other assumed leakage positions. It showed that the most possible leakage position was at the bottom of the barrier. 2.The research applied three dimension FEMWATER and GMS as an interface to input parameter. The simulation of water level and chloride concentration already showed the real situation, and the result can be applied to the future study of the Chi-Ken subsurface reservoir salinity problems.

Recent advances in lunar base simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johenning, B.; Koelle, H. H.

This article reports about the results of the latest computer runs of a lunar base simulation model. The lunar base consists of 20 facilities for lunar mining, processing and fabrication. The infrastructure includes solar and nuclear power plants, a central workshop, habitat and farm. Lunar products can be used for construction of solar power systems (SPS) or other spacecraft at several space locations. The simulation model evaluates the mass, energy and manpower flows between the elements of the system as well as system cost and cost of products on an annual basis for a given operational period. The 1983 standard model run over a fifty-years life cycle (beginning about the year 2000) was accomplished for a mean annual production volume of 78 180 Mg of hardware products for export resulting in average specific manufacturing cost of 8.4 $/kg and total annual cost of 1.25 billion dollars during the life cycle. The reference space transportation system uses LOX/LH 2 propulsion for which at the average 210 500 Mg LOX per year is produced on the moon. The sensitivity analysis indicates the importance of bootstrapping as well as the influence of market size, space transportation cost and specific resources demand on the mean lunar manufacturing cost. The option using lunar resources turns out to be quite attractive from the economical viewpoint. Systems analysis by this lunar base model and further trade-offs will be a useful tool to confirm this.

Simulated impacts of climate change on phosphorus loading to Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Saad, David A.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Lorenz, David J

2016-01-01

Phosphorus (P) loading to the Great Lakes has caused various types of eutrophication problems. Future climatic changes may modify this loading because climatic models project changes in future meteorological conditions, especially for the key hydrologic driver — precipitation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to project how P loading may change from the range of projected climatic changes. To project the future response in P loading, the HydroSPARROW approach was developed that links results from two spatially explicit models, the SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) transport and fate watershed model and the water-quantity Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS was used to project changes in streamflow throughout the Lake Michigan Basin using downscaled meteorological data from eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) subjected to three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Downscaled GCMs project a + 2.1 to + 4.0 °C change in average-annual air temperature (+ 2.6 °C average) and a − 5.1% to + 16.7% change in total annual precipitation (+ 5.1% average) for this geographic area by the middle of this century (2045–2065) and larger changes by the end of the century. The climatic changes by mid-century are projected to result in a − 21.2% to + 8.9% change in total annual streamflow (− 1.8% average) and a − 29.6% to + 17.2% change in total annual P loading (− 3.1% average). Although the average projected changes in streamflow and P loading are relatively small for the entire basin, considerable variability exists spatially and among GCMs because of their variability in projected future precipitation.

Estimating total maximum daily loads with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granato, Gregory; Jones, Susan Cheung

2017-01-01

The Massachusetts Department of Transportation (DOT) and the Rhode Island DOT are assessing and addressing roadway contributions to total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). Example analyses for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, and total zinc in highway runoff were done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with FHWA to simulate long-term annual loads for TMDL analyses with the stochastic empirical loading and dilution model known as SELDM. Concentration statistics from 19 highway runoff monitoring sites in Massachusetts were used with precipitation statistics from 11 long-term monitoring sites to simulate long-term pavement yields (loads per unit area). Highway sites were stratified by traffic volume or surrounding land use to calculate concentration statistics for rural roads, low-volume highways, high-volume highways, and ultraurban highways. The median of the event mean concentration statistics in each traffic volume category was used to simulate annual yields from pavement for a 29- or 30-year period. Long-term average yields for total nitrogen, phosphorus, and zinc from rural roads are lower than yields from the other categories, but yields of sediment are higher than for the low-volume highways. The average yields of the selected water quality constituents from high-volume highways are 1.35 to 2.52 times the associated yields from low-volume highways. The average yields of the selected constituents from ultraurban highways are 1.52 to 3.46 times the associated yields from high-volume highways. Example simulations indicate that both concentration reduction and flow reduction by structural best management practices are crucial for reducing runoff yields.

Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-15

atmospheric fields, including sea level pressure ( SLP ), on daily and sub-daily time scales at 2° horizontal resolution. A higher-resolution and more...its 21st-century simulation. Extreme cyclones were defined as occurrences of daily mean SLP at least 40 hPa below the climatological annual-average... SLP at a grid point. As such, no cyclone-tracking algorithm was employed, because the purpose here is to identify instances of extremely strong

Impact of increasing milk production on whole farm environmental management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increasing herd milk production can provide both economic benefit to the producer and environmental benefit to society. Simulated dairy farms with average annual herd productions from 16,000 to 30,000 lb/cow illustrate that increasing milk yield per cow improves feed efficiency, reduces feed costs a...

Infiltration in layered loessial deposits: Revised numerical simulations and recharge assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dafny, Elad; Šimůnek, Jirka

2016-07-01

The objective of this study is to assess recharge rates and their timing under layered loessial deposits at the edge of arid zones. Particularly, this study is focused on the case of the coastal plain of Israel and Gaza. First, results of a large-scale field infiltration test were used to calibrate the van Genuchten parameters of hydraulic properties of the loessial sediments using HYDRUS (2D/3D). Second, optimized soil hydraulic parameters were used by HYDRUS-1D to simulate the water balance of the sandy-loess sediments during a 25-year period (1990-2015) for three environmental conditions: bare soil, and soil with both sparse and dense natural vegetation. The best inverse parameter optimization run fitted the infiltration test data with the RMSE of 0.27 d (with respect to a moisture front arrival) and R2 of 96%. The calibrated model indicates that hydraulic conductivities of the two soil horizons, namely sandy loam and sandy clay loam, are 81 cm/d and 17.5 cm/d, respectively. These values are significantly lower than those previously reported, based on numerical simulations, for the same site. HYDRUS-1D simulation of natural recharge under bare soil resulted in recharge estimates (to the aquifer) in the range of 21-93 mm/yr, with an average recharge of 63 mm/yr. Annual precipitation in the same period varied between 100 and 300 mm/yr, with an average of 185 mm/yr. For semi-stabilized dunes, with 26% of the soil surface covered by local shrub (Artemisia monosperma), the mean annual recharge was 28 mm. For the stabilized landscape, with as much as 50% vegetation coverage, it was only 2-3 mm/yr. In other words, loessial sediments can either be a source of significant recharge, or of no recharge at all, depending on the degree of vegetative cover. Additionally, the time lag between specific rainy seasons and corresponding recharge events at a depth of 22 m, increased from 2.5 to 5 years, and to about 20 years, respectively, with an increasing vegetative cover. For this reason, and also likely due to a great depth of loessial sediments, no correlation was found between annual recharge and annual precipitations of the same year or subsequent years. Similarly, no differences were found between summer and winter recharge fluxes. Instead, numerical simulations indicated continuous year-round recharge of the aquifer. We conclude that the layered subsurface acts as a short-term (annual) and long-term (multi-annual) buffer to smooth sudden precipitation/infiltration events. Vegetation conditions can help in predicting long-term recharge rates (as percentage of annual precipitation), which in turn need to be considered when assigning recharge characteristics in regional assessments and models.

The importance of temporal inequality in quantifying vegetated filter strip removal efficiencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gall, H. E.; Schultz, D.; Mejia, A.; Harman, C. J.; Raj, C.; Goslee, S.; Veith, T.; Patterson, P. H.

2017-12-01

Vegetated filter strips (VFSs) are best management practices (BMPs) commonly implemented adjacent to row-cropped fields to trap overland transport of sediment and other constituents often present in agricultural runoff. VFSs are generally reported to have high sediment removal efficiencies (i.e., 70 - 95%); however, these values are typically calculated as an average of removal efficiencies observed or simulated for individual events. We argue that due to: (i) positively correlated sediment concentration-discharge relationships; (ii) strong temporal inequality exhibited by sediment transport; and (iii) decreasing VFS performance with increasing flow rates, VFS removal efficiencies over annual time scales may be significantly lower than the per-event values or averages typically reported in the literature and used in decision-making models. By applying a stochastic approach to a two-component VFS model, we investigated the extent of the disparity between two calculation methods: averaging efficiencies from each event over the course of one year, versus reporting the total annual load reduction. We examined the effects of soil texture, concentration-discharge relationship, and VFS slope to reveal the potential errors that may be incurred by ignoring the effects of temporal inequality in quantifying VFS performance. Simulation results suggest that errors can be as low as < 2% and as high as > 20%, with the differences between the two methods of removal efficiency calculations greatest for: (i) soils with high percentage of fine particulates; (ii) VFSs with higher slopes; and (iii) strongly positive concentration-discharge relationships. These results can aid in annual-scale decision making for achieving downstream water quality goals.

Estimate of the direct production losses in Canadian dairy herds with subclinical Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infection

PubMed Central

Tiwari, Ashwani; VanLeeuwen, John A.; Dohoo, Ian R.; Keefe, Greg P.; Weersink, Alfons

2008-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the annual losses from Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) for an average, MAP-seropositive, Canadian dairy herd. A partial-budget simulation model was developed with 4 components of direct production losses (decreased milk production, premature voluntary culling, mortality, and reproductive losses). Input values were obtained primarily from a national seroprevalence survey of 373 Canadian dairy farms in 8 of 10 provinces. The model took into account the variability and uncertainty of the required input values; consequently, it produced probability distributions of the estimated losses. For an average Canadian dairy herd with 12.7% of 61 cows seropositive for MAP, the mean loss was $2992 (95% C.I., $143 to $9741) annually, or $49 per cow per year. Additional culling, decreased milk production, mortality, and reproductive losses accounted for 46%, 9%, 16%, and 29% of the losses, respectively. Canadian dairy producers should use best management practices to reduce these substantial annual losses. PMID:18624066

40 CFR 63.1260 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... process vents as required in § 63.1257(d)(2)(ii). (6) Data and other information supporting the determination of annual average concentrations by process simulation as required in § 63.1257(e)(1)(ii). (7... must be performed while a process with a vent subject to § 63.1254(a)(3) will be operating. (g...

How does increasing horizontal resolution in a global climate model improve the simulation of aerosol-cloud interactions?

DOE PAGES

Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Minghuai; ...

2015-06-23

We report the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 is run at horizontal grid spacing of 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.25°, with the meteorology nudged toward the Year Of Tropical Convection analysis, and cloud simulators and the collocated A-Train satellite observations are used to explore the resolution dependence of aerosol-cloud interactions. The higher-resolution model produces results that agree better with observations, showing an increase of susceptibility of cloud droplet size, indicating a stronger first aerosol indirect forcing (AIF), and a decrease of susceptibility of precipitation probability, suggesting a weaker second AIF. The resolution sensitivities of AIF are attributed to those ofmore » droplet nucleation and precipitation parameterizations. Finally, the annual average AIF in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (where most anthropogenic emissions occur) in the 0.25° model is reduced by about 1 W m -2 (-30%) compared to the 2° model, leading to a 0.26 W m -2 reduction (-15%) in the global annual average AIF.« less

A long-term simulation of forest carbon fluxes over the Qilian Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Min; Tian, Xin; Li, Zengyuan; Chen, Erxue; Li, Chunmei; Fan, Wenwu

2016-10-01

In this work, we integrated a remote-sensing-based (the MODIS MOD_17 Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) model (MOD_17)) and a process-based (the Biome-BioGeochemical Cycles (Biome-BGC) model) ecological model in order to estimate long-term (from 2000 to 2012) forest carbon fluxes over the Qilian Mountains in northwest China, a cold and arid forest ecosystem. Our goal was to obtain an accurate and quantitative simulation of spatial GPP patterns using the MOD_17 model and a temporal description of forest processes using the Biome-BGC model. The original MOD_17 model was first optimized using a biome-specific parameter, observed meteorological data, and reproduced fPAR at the eddy covariance site. The optimized MOD_17 model performed much better (R2 = 0.91, RMSE = 5.19 gC/m2/8d) than the original model (R2 = 0.47, RMSE = 20.27 gC/m2/8d). The Biome-BGC model was then calibrated using GPP for 30 representative forest plots selected from the optimized MOD_17 model. The calibrated Biome-BGC model was then driven in order to estimate forest GPP, net primary productivity (NPP), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). GPP and NEE were validated against two-year (2010 and 2011) EC measurements (R2 = 0.79, RMSE = 1.15 gC/m2/d for GPP; and R2 = 0.69, RMSE = 1.087 gC/m2/d for NEE). NPP estimates from 2000 to 2012 were then compared to dendrochronological measurements (R2 = 0.73, RMSE = 24.46 gC/m2/yr). Our results indicated that integration of the two models can be used for estimating carbon fluxes with good accuracy and a high temporal and spatial resolution. Overall, NPP displayed a downward trend, with an average rate of 0.39 gC/m2/yr, from 2000 and 2012 over the Qilian Mountains. Simulated average annual NPP yielded higher values for the southeast as compared to the northwest. The most positive correlative climatic factor to average annual NPP was downward shortwave radiation. The vapor pressure deficit, and mean temperature and precipitation yielded negative correlations to average annual NPP.

50 CFR 218.21 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... annually); (xv) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuate)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (xvi) Killer whale... dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (x) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually...

50 CFR 218.21 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... annually); (xv) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuate)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (xvi) Killer whale... dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (x) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually...

50 CFR 218.21 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... annually); (xv) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuate)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (xvi) Killer whale... dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (x) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually...

50 CFR 218.11 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... annually); (viii) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (ix) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (x) Beaked whales—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata)—15 (an average of 3 annually). (2) Level A Harassment...

50 CFR 218.11 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... annually); (viii) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (ix) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (x) Beaked whales—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata)—15 (an average of 3 annually). (2) Level A Harassment...

50 CFR 218.11 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... annually); (viii) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (ix) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (x) Beaked whales—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata)—15 (an average of 3 annually). (2) Level A Harassment...

Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections.

PubMed

Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L

2017-08-15

The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydrology and simulation of ground-water flow in the Tooele Valley ground-water basin, Tooele County, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stolp, Bernard J.; Brooks, Lynette E.

2009-01-01

Ground water is the sole source of drinking water within Tooele Valley. Transition from agriculture to residential land and water use necessitates additional understanding of water resources. The ground-water basin is conceptualized as a single interconnected hydrologic system consisting of the consolidated-rock mountains and adjoining unconsolidated basin-fill valleys. Within the basin fill, unconfined conditions exist along the valley margins and confined conditions exist in the central areas of the valleys. Transmissivity of the unconsolidated basin-fill aquifer ranges from 1,000 to 270,000 square feet per day. Within the consolidated rock of the mountains, ground-water flow largely is unconfined, though variability in geologic structure, stratigraphy, and lithology has created some areas where ground-water flow is confined. Hydraulic conductivity of the consolidated rock ranges from 0.003 to 100 feet per day. Ground water within the basin generally moves from the mountains toward the central and northern areas of Tooele Valley. Steep hydraulic gradients exist at Tooele Army Depot and near Erda. The estimated average annual ground-water recharge within the basin is 82,000 acre-feet per year. The primary source of recharge is precipitation in the mountains; other sources of recharge are irrigation water and streams. Recharge from precipitation was determined using the Basin Characterization Model. Estimated average annual ground-water discharge within the basin is 84,000 acre-feet per year. Discharge is to wells, springs, and drains, and by evapotranspiration. Water levels at wells within the basin indicate periods of increased recharge during 1983-84 and 1996-2000. During these periods annual precipitation at Tooele City exceeded the 1971-2000 annual average for consecutive years. The water with the lowest dissolved-solids concentrations exists in the mountain areas where most of the ground-water recharge occurs. The principal dissolved constituents are calcium and bicarbonate. Dissolved-solids concentration increases in the central and northern parts of Tooele Valley, at the distal ends of the ground-water flow paths. Increased concentration is due mainly to greater amounts of sodium and chloride. Deuterium and oxygen-18 values indicate water recharged primarily from precipitation occurs throughout the ground-water basin. Ground water with the highest percentage of recharge from irrigation exists along the eastern margin of Tooele Valley, indicating negligible recharge from the adjacent consolidated rock. Tritium and tritiogenic helium-3 concentrations indicate modern water exists along the flow paths originating in the Oquirrh Mountains between Settlement and Pass Canyons and extending between the steep hydraulic gradient areas at Tooele Army Depot and Erda. Pre-modern water exists in areas east of Erda and near Stansbury Park. Using the change in tritium along the flow paths originating in the Oquirrh Mountains, a first-order estimate of average linear ground-water velocity for the general area is roughly 2 to 5 feet per day. A numerical ground-water flow model was developed to simulate ground-water flow in the Tooele Valley ground-water basin and to test the conceptual understanding of the ground-water system. Simulating flow in consolidated rock allows recharge and withdrawal from wells in or near consolidated rock to be simulated more accurately. In general, the model accurately simulates water levels and water-level fluctuations and can be considered an adequate tool to help determine the valley-wide effects on water levels of additional ground-water withdrawal and changes in water use. The simulated increase in storage during a projection simulation using 2003 withdrawal rates and average recharge indicates that repeated years of average precipitation and recharge conditions do not completely restore the system after multiple years of below-normal precipitation. In the similar case where precipitation is 90

COLLABORATIVE MODELING OF THE BENEFITS AND HARMS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT U.S. BREAST CANCER SCREENING STRATEGIES

PubMed Central

Mandelblatt, Jeanne S.; Stout, Natasha K.; Schechter, Clyde B.; van den Broek, Jeroen J.; Miglioretti, Diana; Krapcho, Martin; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Munoz, Diego; Lee, Sandra J.; Berry, Donald A.; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T.; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Kerlikowske, Karla; Tosteson, Anna N.A.; Near, Aimee M.; Hoeffken, Amanda; Chang, Yaojen; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A.; Chisholm, Gary; Huang, Xuelin; Huang, Hui; Ergun, Mehmet Ali; Gangnon, Ronald; Sprague, Brian L.; Plevritis, Sylvia; Feuer, Eric; de Koning, Harry J.; Cronin, Kathleen A.

2016-01-01

Background Controversy persists about optimal mammography screening strategies. Objective To evaluate mammography strategies considering screening and treatment advances. Design Collaboration of six simulation models. Data Sources National data on incidence, risk, breast density, digital mammography performance, treatment effects, and other-cause mortality. Target Population An average-risk cohort. Time Horizon Lifetime. Perspective Societal. Interventions Mammograms from age 40, 45 or 50 to 74 at annual or biennial intervals, or annually from 40 or 45 to 49 then biennially to 74, assuming 100% screening and treatment adherence. Outcome Measures Screening benefits (vs. no screening) include percent breast cancer mortality reduction, deaths averted, and life-years gained. Harms include number of mammograms, false-positives, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis. Results for Average-Risk Women Biennial strategies maintain 79.8%-81.3% (range across strategies and models: 68.3–98.9%) of annual screening benefits with almost half the false-positives and fewer overdiagnoses. Screening biennially from ages 50–74 achieves a median 25.8% (range: 24.1%-31.8%) breast cancer mortality reduction; annual screening from ages 40–74 years reduces mortality an additional 12.0% (range: 5.7%-17.2%) vs. no screening, but yields 1988 more false-positives and 7 more overdiagnoses per 1000 women screened. Annual screening from ages 50–74 had similar benefits as other strategies but more harms, so would not be recommended. Sub-population Results Annual screening starting at age 40 for women who have a two- to four-fold increase in risk has a similar balance of harms and benefits as biennial screening of average-risk women from 50–74. Limitations We do not consider other imaging technologies, polygenic risk, or non-adherence. Conclusion These results suggest that biennial screening is efficient for average-risk groups, but decisions on strategies depend on the weight given to the balance of harms and benefits. Primary Funding Source National Institutes of Health PMID:26756606

Modelling Inland Flood Events for Hazard Maps in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, S.; Nzerem, K.; Sassi, M.; Hilberts, A.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Mathur, P.; Mitas, C.; Rafique, F.

2015-12-01

Taiwan experiences significant inland flooding, driven by torrential rainfall from plum rain storms and typhoons during summer and fall. From last 13 to 16 years data, 3,000 buildings were damaged by such floods annually with a loss US$0.41 billion (Water Resources Agency). This long, narrow island nation with mostly hilly/mountainous topography is located at tropical-subtropical zone with annual average typhoon-hit-frequency of 3-4 (Central Weather Bureau) and annual average precipitation of 2502mm (WRA) - 2.5 times of the world's average. Spatial and temporal distributions of countrywide precipitation are uneven, with very high local extreme rainfall intensities. Annual average precipitation is 3000-5000mm in the mountainous regions, 78% of it falls in May-October, and the 1-hour to 3-day maximum rainfall are about 85 to 93% of the world records (WRA). Rivers in Taiwan are short with small upstream areas and high runoff coefficients of watersheds. These rivers have the steepest slopes, the shortest response time with rapid flows, and the largest peak flows as well as specific flood peak discharge (WRA) in the world. RMS has recently developed a countrywide inland flood model for Taiwan, producing hazard return period maps at 1arcsec grid resolution. These can be the basis for evaluating and managing flood risk, its economic impacts, and insured flood losses. The model is initiated with sub-daily historical meteorological forcings and calibrated to daily discharge observations at about 50 river gauges over the period 2003-2013. Simulations of hydrologic processes, via rainfall-runoff and routing models, are subsequently performed based on a 10000 year set of stochastic forcing. The rainfall-runoff model is physically based continuous, semi-distributed model for catchment hydrology. The 1-D wave propagation hydraulic model considers catchment runoff in routing and describes large-scale transport processes along the river. It also accounts for reservoir storage. Major historical flood events have been successfully simulated along with spatial patterns of flows. Comparison of stochastic discharge statistics w.r.t. observed ones from Hydrological Year Books of Taiwan over all recorded years are also in good agreement.

InMAP: a new model for air pollution interventions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessum, C. W.; Hill, J. D.; Marshall, J. D.

2015-10-01

Mechanistic air pollution models are essential tools in air quality management. Widespread use of such models is hindered, however, by the extensive expertise or computational resources needed to run most models. Here, we present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations - the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages - attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical information from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model (WRF-Chem) within an Eulerian modeling framework, to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. InMAP uses a variable resolution grid that focuses on human exposures by employing higher spatial resolution in urban areas and lower spatial resolution in rural and remote locations and in the upper atmosphere; and by directly calculating steady-state, annual average concentrations. In comparisons run here, InMAP recreates WRF-Chem predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional error (MFE) and bias (MFB) < 10 % and population-weighted R2 ~ 0.99. Among individual PM2.5 species, the best predictive performance is for primary PM2.5 (MFE: 16 %; MFB: 13 %) and the worst predictive performance is for particulate nitrate (MFE: 119 %; MFB: 106 %). Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. Features planned for future model releases include a larger spatial domain, more temporal information, and the ability to predict ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online.

The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenech, Sara; Doherty, Ruth M.; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Macintyre, Helen L.; O'Connor, Fiona M.

2018-04-01

We examine the impact of model horizontal resolution on simulated concentrations of surface ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5), and the associated health impacts over Europe, using the HadGEM3-UKCA chemistry-climate model to simulate pollutant concentrations at a coarse (˜ 140 km) and a finer (˜ 50 km) resolution. The attributable fraction (AF) of total mortality due to long-term exposure to warm season daily maximum 8 h running mean (MDA8) O3 and annual-average PM2.5 concentrations is then calculated for each European country using pollutant concentrations simulated at each resolution. Our results highlight a seasonal variation in simulated O3 and PM2.5 differences between the two model resolutions in Europe. Compared to the finer resolution results, simulated European O3 concentrations at the coarse resolution are higher on average in winter and spring (˜ 10 and ˜ 6 %, respectively). In contrast, simulated O3 concentrations at the coarse resolution are lower in summer and autumn (˜ -1 and ˜ -4 %, respectively). These differences may be partly explained by differences in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations simulated at the two resolutions. Compared to O3, we find the opposite seasonality in simulated PM2.5 differences between the two resolutions. In winter and spring, simulated PM2.5 concentrations are lower at the coarse compared to the finer resolution (˜ -8 and ˜ -6 %, respectively) but higher in summer and autumn (˜ 29 and ˜ 8 %, respectively). Simulated PM2.5 values are also mostly related to differences in convective rainfall between the two resolutions for all seasons. These differences between the two resolutions exhibit clear spatial patterns for both pollutants that vary by season, and exert a strong influence on country to country variations in estimated AF for the two resolutions. Warm season MDA8 O3 levels are higher in most of southern Europe, but lower in areas of northern and eastern Europe when simulated at the coarse resolution compared to the finer resolution. Annual-average PM2.5 concentrations are higher across most of northern and eastern Europe but lower over parts of southwest Europe at the coarse compared to the finer resolution. Across Europe, differences in the AF associated with long-term exposure to population-weighted MDA8 O3 range between -0.9 and +2.6 % (largest positive differences in southern Europe), while differences in the AF associated with long-term exposure to population-weighted annual mean PM2.5 range from -4.7 to +2.8 % (largest positive differences in eastern Europe) of the total mortality. Therefore this study, with its unique focus on Europe, demonstrates that health impact assessments calculated using modelled pollutant concentrations, are sensitive to a change in model resolution by up to ˜ ±5 % of the total mortality across Europe.

28 CFR 505.2 - Annual determination of average cost of incarceration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION COST OF INCARCERATION FEE § 505.2 Annual determination of average cost of... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Annual determination of average cost of... average cost of incarceration. This calculation is reviewed annually and the revised figure is published...

Simulation of High-Latitude Hydrological Processes in the Torne-Kalix Basin: PILPS Phase 2(e). 3; Equivalent Model Representation and Sensitivity Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowling, Laura C.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Nijssen, Bart; Polcher, Jan; Koster, Randal D.; Lohmann, Dag; Houser, Paul R. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Project for Intercomparison of Land Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) Phase 2(e) showed that in cold regions the annual runoff production in Land Surface Schemes (LSSs) is closely related to the maximum snow accumulation, which in turn is controlled in large part by winter sublimation. To help further explain the relationship between snow cover, turbulent exchanges and runoff production, a simple equivalent model-(SEM) was devised to reproduce the seasonal and annual fluxes simulated by 13 LSSs that participated in PILPS Phase 2(e). The design of the SEM relates the annual partitioning of precipitation and energy in the LSSs to three primary parameters: snow albedo, effective aerodynamic resistance and evaporation efficiency. Isolation of each of the parameters showed that the annual runoff production was most sensitive to the aerodynamic resistance. The SEM was somewhat successful in reproducing the observed LSS response to a decrease in shortwave radiation and changes in wind speed forcings. SEM parameters derived from the reduced shortwave forcings suggested that increased winter stability suppressed turbulent heat fluxes over snow. Because winter sensible heat fluxes were largely negative, reductions in winter shortwave radiation imply an increase in annual average sensible heat.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

Hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio favors switchgrass production on marginal croplands over existing grasslands

PubMed Central

Yimam, Yohannes Tadesse; Ochsner, Tyson E.; Fox, Garey A.

2017-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has attracted attention as a promising second generation biofuel feedstock. Both existing grasslands and marginal croplands have been suggested as targets for conversion to switchgrass, but the resulting production potentials and hydrologic impacts are not clear. The objectives of this study were to model switchgrass production on existing grasslands (scenario-I) and on marginal croplands that have severe to very severe limitations for crop production (scenario-II) and to evaluate the effects on evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the 1063 km2 Skeleton Creek watershed in north-central Oklahoma, a watershed dominated by grasslands (35%) and winter wheat cropland (47%). The simulated average annual yield (2002–2011) for rainfed Alamo switchgrass for both scenarios was 12 Mg ha-1. Yield varied spatially under scenario-I from 6.1 to 15.3 Mg ha-1, while under scenario-II the range was from 8.2 to 13.8 Mg ha-1. Comparison of average annual ET and streamflow between the baseline simulation (existing land use) and scenario-I showed that scenario-I had 5.6% (37 mm) higher average annual ET and 27.7% lower streamflow, representing a 40.7 million m3 yr-1 streamflow reduction. Compared to the baseline, scenario-II had only 0.5% higher ET and 3.2% lower streamflow, but some monthly impacts were larger. In this watershed, the water yield reduction per ton of biomass production (i.e. hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio) was more than 5X greater under scenario-I than under scenario-II. These results suggest that, from a hydrologic perspective, it may be preferable to convert marginal cropland to switchgrass production rather than converting existing grasslands. PMID:28792541

Hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio favors switchgrass production on marginal croplands over existing grasslands.

PubMed

Yimam, Yohannes Tadesse; Ochsner, Tyson E; Fox, Garey A

2017-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has attracted attention as a promising second generation biofuel feedstock. Both existing grasslands and marginal croplands have been suggested as targets for conversion to switchgrass, but the resulting production potentials and hydrologic impacts are not clear. The objectives of this study were to model switchgrass production on existing grasslands (scenario-I) and on marginal croplands that have severe to very severe limitations for crop production (scenario-II) and to evaluate the effects on evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the 1063 km2 Skeleton Creek watershed in north-central Oklahoma, a watershed dominated by grasslands (35%) and winter wheat cropland (47%). The simulated average annual yield (2002-2011) for rainfed Alamo switchgrass for both scenarios was 12 Mg ha-1. Yield varied spatially under scenario-I from 6.1 to 15.3 Mg ha-1, while under scenario-II the range was from 8.2 to 13.8 Mg ha-1. Comparison of average annual ET and streamflow between the baseline simulation (existing land use) and scenario-I showed that scenario-I had 5.6% (37 mm) higher average annual ET and 27.7% lower streamflow, representing a 40.7 million m3 yr-1 streamflow reduction. Compared to the baseline, scenario-II had only 0.5% higher ET and 3.2% lower streamflow, but some monthly impacts were larger. In this watershed, the water yield reduction per ton of biomass production (i.e. hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio) was more than 5X greater under scenario-I than under scenario-II. These results suggest that, from a hydrologic perspective, it may be preferable to convert marginal cropland to switchgrass production rather than converting existing grasslands.

Chemistry-Climate Interactions in the GISS GCM. Part 1; Tropospheric Chemistry Model Description and Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew T.; Grenfell, J. Lee; Rind, David; Price, Colin; Grewe, Volker; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A tropospheric chemistry module has been developed for use within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to study interactions between chemistry and climate change. The model uses a simplified chemistry scheme based on CO-NOx-CH4 chemistry, and also includes a parameterization for emissions of isoprene, the most important non-methane hydrocarbon. The model reproduces present day annual cycles and mean distributions of key trace gases fairly well, based on extensive comparisons with available observations. Examining the simulated change between present day and pre-industrial conditions, we find that the model has a similar response to that seen in other simulations. It shows a 45% increase in the global tropospheric ozone burden, within the 25% - 57% range seen in other studies. Annual average zonal mean ozone increases by more than 125% at Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes near the surface. Comparison of model runs that allow the calculated ozone to interact with the GCM's radiation and meteorology with those that do not shows only minor differences for ozone. The common usage of ozone fields that are not calculated interactively seems to be adequate to simulate both the present day and the pre-industrial ozone distributions. However, use of coupled chemistry does alter the change in tropospheric oxidation capacity, enlarging the overall decrease in OH concentrations from the pre-industrial to the present by about 10% (-5.3% global annual average in uncoupled mode, -5.9% in coupled mode). This indicates that there may be systematic biases in the simulation of the pre-industrial to present day decrease in the oxidation capacity of the troposphere (though a 10% difference is well within the total uncertainty). Global annual average radiative forcing from pre-industrial to present day ozone change is 0.32 W/sq m. The forcing seems to be increased by about 10% when the chemistry is coupled to the GCM. Forcing values greater than 0.8 W/sq m are seen over large areas of the United States, Southern Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Arctic. Radiative forcing is greater than 1.5 W/sq m over parts of these areas during Northern summer Though there are local differences, the radiative forcing is overall in good agreement with the results of other modeling studies in both its magnitude and spatial distribution, demonstrating that the simplified chemistry is adequate for climate studies.

50 CFR 216.242 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—8270 (an average of 1654 annually). (Q) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—1400 (an average of 280 annually). (R) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—2690 (an average of 538 annually). (S) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—2515 (an average of 503 annually). (T) Pilot whales...

50 CFR 216.242 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—8270 (an average of 1654 annually). (Q) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—1400 (an average of 280 annually). (R) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—2690 (an average of 538 annually). (S) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—2515 (an average of 503 annually). (T) Pilot whales...

Modeling and predicting intertidal variations of the salinity field in the Bay/Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knowles, Noah; Uncles, Reginald J.

1995-01-01

One approach to simulating daily to monthly variability in the bay is the development of intertidal model using tidally-averaged equations and a time step on the order of the day.  An intertidal numerical model of the bay's physics, capable of portraying seasonal and inter-annual variability, would have several uses.  Observations are limited in time and space, so simulation could help fill the gaps.  Also, the ability to simulate multi-year episodes (eg, an extended drought) could provide insight into the response of the ecosystem to such events.  Finally, such a model could be used in a forecast mode wherein predicted delta flow is used as model input, and predicted salinity distribution is output with estimates days and months in advance.  This note briefly introduces such a tidally-averaged model (Uncles and Peterson, in press) and a corresponding predictive scheme for baywide forecasting.

Annual Research Briefs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spinks, Debra (Compiler)

1997-01-01

This report contains the 1997 annual progress reports of the research fellows and students supported by the Center for Turbulence Research (CTR). Titles include: Invariant modeling in large-eddy simulation of turbulence; Validation of large-eddy simulation in a plain asymmetric diffuser; Progress in large-eddy simulation of trailing-edge turbulence and aeronautics; Resolution requirements in large-eddy simulations of shear flows; A general theory of discrete filtering for LES in complex geometry; On the use of discrete filters for large eddy simulation; Wall models in large eddy simulation of separated flow; Perspectives for ensemble average LES; Anisotropic grid-based formulas for subgrid-scale models; Some modeling requirements for wall models in large eddy simulation; Numerical simulation of 3D turbulent boundary layers using the V2F model; Accurate modeling of impinging jet heat transfer; Application of turbulence models to high-lift airfoils; Advances in structure-based turbulence modeling; Incorporating realistic chemistry into direct numerical simulations of turbulent non-premixed combustion; Effects of small-scale structure on turbulent mixing; Turbulent premixed combustion in the laminar flamelet and the thin reaction zone regime; Large eddy simulation of combustion instabilities in turbulent premixed burners; On the generation of vorticity at a free-surface; Active control of turbulent channel flow; A generalized framework for robust control in fluid mechanics; Combined immersed-boundary/B-spline methods for simulations of flow in complex geometries; and DNS of shock boundary-layer interaction - preliminary results for compression ramp flow.

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress in a model simulation of the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacfic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Dake; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Rothstein, Lewis M.

1994-01-01

The climatological seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific is simulated using a newly developed upper ocean model. The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress are investigated in a hierarchy of numerical experiments with various combinations of vertical mixing algorithms and surface-forcing products. It is found that the large SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific is, to a large extent, controlled by the annually varying mixed layer depth which, in turn, is mainly determined by the competing effects of solar radiation and wind forcing. With the application of our hybrid vertical mixing scheme the model-simulated SST annual cycle is much improved in both amplitude and phase as compared to the case of a constant mixed layer depth. Beside the strong effects on vertical mixing, solar radiation is the primary heating term in the surface layer heat budget, and wind forcing influences SST by driving oceanic advective processes that redistribute heat in the upper ocean. For example, the SST seasonal cycle in the western Pacific basically follows the semiannual variation of solar heating, and the cycle in the central equatorial region is significantly affected by the zonal advective heat flux associated with the seasonally reversing South Equatorial Current. It has been shown in our experiments that the amount of heat flux modification needed to eliminate the annual mean SST errors in the model is, on average, no larger than the annual mean uncertainties among the various surface flux products used in this study. Whereas a bias correction is needed to account for remaining uncertainties in the annual mean heat flux, this study demonstrates that with proper treatment of mixed layer physics and realistic forcing functions the seasonal variability of SST is capable of being simulated successfully in response to external forcing without relying on a relaxation or damping formulation for the dominant surface heat flux contributions.

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

DOE PAGES

Tessum, Christopher W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.; ...

2017-04-19

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. We present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical informationmore » from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons we run, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of -17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license.« less

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

PubMed Central

Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

2017-01-01

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. Here, we present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical information from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons run here, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of −17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license. PMID:28423049

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tessum, Christopher W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. We present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical informationmore » from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons we run, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of -17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license.« less

Multi-criteria Evaluation of Discharge Simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H.; Piao, S.; Zeng, Z.; Ciais, P.; Yin, Y.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sitch, S.; Ahlström, A.; Guimberteau, M.; Huntingford, C.; Levis, S.; Levy, P. E.; Huang, M.; Li, Y.; Li, X.; Lomas, M.; Peylin, P. P.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.; Zhao, F.; Wang, L.

2015-12-01

In this study, we assessed the performance of discharge simulations by coupling the runoff from seven Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs; LPJ, ORCHIDEE, Sheffield-DGVM, TRIFFID, LPJ-GUESS, CLM4CN, and OCN) to one river routing model for 16 large river basins. The results show that the seasonal cycle of river discharge is generally modelled well in the low and mid latitudes, but not in the high latitudes, where the peak discharge (due to snow and ice melting) is underestimated. For the annual mean discharge, the DGVMs chained with the routing model show an underestimation. Furthermore the 30-year trend of discharge is also under-estimated. For the inter-annual variability of discharge, a skill score based on overlapping of probability density functions (PDFs) suggests that most models correctly reproduce the observed variability (correlation coefficient higher than 0.5; i.e. models account for 50% of observed inter-annual variability) except for the Lena, Yenisei, Yukon, and the Congo river basins. In addition, we compared the simulated runoff from different simulations where models were forced with either fixed or varying land use. This suggests that both seasonal and annual mean runoff has been little affected by land use change, but that the trend itself of runoff is sensitive to land use change. None of the models when considered individually show significantly better performances than any other and in all basins. This suggests that based on current modelling capability, a regional-weighted average of multi-model ensemble projections might be appropriate to reduce the bias in future projection of global river discharge.

Interannual Variability in Intercontinental Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Mohan; Douglass, Anne; Kawa, S. Randy; Pawson, Steven

2003-01-01

We have investigated the importance of intercontinental transport using source-receptor relationship. A global radon-like and seven regional tracers were used in three-dimensional model simulations to quantify their contributions to column burdens and vertical profiles at world-wide receptors. Sensitivity of these contributions to meteorological input was examined using different years of meteorology in two atmospheric simulations. Results show that Asian emission influences tracer distributions in its eastern downwind regions extending as far as Europe with major contributions in mid- and upper troposphere. On the western and eastern sides of the US, Asian contribution to annual average column burdens are 37% and 5% respectively with strong monthly variations. At an altitude of 10 km, these contributions are 75% and 25% respectively. North American emissions contribute more than 15% to annual average column burden and about 50% at 8 km altitude over the European region. Contributions from tropical African emissions are wide-spread in both the hemispheres. Differences in meteorological input cause non-uniform redistribution of tracer mass throughout the troposphere at all receptors. We also show that in model-model and model-data comparison, correlation analysis of tracer's spatial gradients provides an added measure of model's performance.

Digital simulation of the effects of urbanization on runoff in the upper Santa Ana Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Durbin, Timothy J.

1974-01-01

The Stanford Watershed Model was used to simulate the effects of urbanization on the discharge from five drainage basins in the upper Santa Ana Valley, an area with an average annual precipitation of 15 inches. The drainage basins ranged in size from 3.72 to 83.4 square miles. Using the model, synthetic records of streamflow for each basin were generated to represent various degrees of urban development. Examination of the synthetic records indicated that urbanization has the following effects on streamflow in the area:Average annual runoff from a drainage basin with an effective impervious area of 10 percent of the drainage area is approximately 2 inches, and increases by 1 inch for each increase in effective impervious cover equal to 10 percent of the drainage area. About 30 percent of a fully urbanized area is effectively impervious.Urbanization can increase the magnitude of peak discharge and daily mean discharge with a recurrence interval of 2 years by a factor of three to six.Peak discharges and daily mean discharges that have recurrence intervals greater than a limiting value ranging from 50 to 200 years or more are little affected by urbanization.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Logue, Jennifer M; Singer, Brett

Range hood use during residential cooking is essential to maintaining good indoor air quality. However, widespread use will impact the energy demand of the U.S. housing stock. This paper describes a modeling study to determine site energy, source energy, and consumer costs for comprehensive range hood use. To estimate the energy impacts for all 113 million homes in the U.S., we extrapolated from the simulation of a representative weighted sample of 50,000 virtual homes developed from the 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Survey database. A physics-based simulation model that considered fan energy, energy to condition additional incoming air, and the effectmore » on home heating and cooling due to exhausting the heat from cooking was applied to each home. Hoods performing at a level common to hoods currently in U.S. homes would require 19?33 TWh [69?120 PJ] of site energy, 31?53 TWh [110-190 PJ] of source energy; and would cost consumers $1.2?2.1 billion (U.S.$2010) annually in the U.S. housing stock. The average household would spend less than $15 annually. Reducing required airflow, e.g. with designs that promote better pollutant capture has more energy saving potential, on average, than improving fan efficiency.« less

Source apportionment of speciated PM10 in the United Kingdom in 2008: Episodes and annual averages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redington, A. L.; Witham, C. S.; Hort, M. C.

2016-11-01

The Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment), has been used to simulate the formation and transport of PM10 over North-West Europe in 2008. The model has been evaluated against UK measurement data and been shown to adequately represent the observed PM10 at rural and urban sites on a daily basis. The Lagrangian nature of the model allows information on the origin of pollutants (and hence their secondary products) to be retained to allow attribution of pollutants at receptor sites back to their sources. This source apportionment technique has been employed to determine whether the different components of the modelled PM10 have originated from UK, shipping, European (excluding the UK) or background sources. For the first time this has been done to evaluate the composition during periods of elevated PM10 as well as the annual average composition. The episode data were determined by selecting the model data for each hour when the corresponding measurement data was >50 μg/m3. All the modelled sites show an increase in European pollution contribution and a decrease in the background contribution in the episode case compared to the annual average. The European contribution is greatest in southern and eastern parts of the UK and decreases moving northwards and westwards. Analysis of the speciated attribution data over the selected sites reveals that for 2008, as an annual average, the top three contributors to total PM10 are UK primary PM10 (17-25%), UK origin nitrate aerosol (18-21%) and background PM10 (11-16%). Under episode conditions the top three contributors to modelled PM10 are UK origin nitrate aerosol (12-33%), European origin nitrate aerosol (11-19%) and UK primary PM10 (12-18%).

Modeling the Response of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in the Kenya Highlands to a Rise in Mean Annual Temperature.

PubMed

Wallace, Dorothy; Prosper, Olivia; Savos, Jacob; Dunham, Ann M; Chipman, Jonathan W; Shi, Xun; Ndenga, Bryson; Githeko, Andrew

2017-03-01

A dynamical model of Anopheles gambiae larval and adult populations is constructed that matches temperature-dependent maturation times and mortality measured experimentally as well as larval instar and adult mosquito emergence data from field studies in the Kenya Highlands. Spectral classification of high-resolution satellite imagery is used to estimate household density. Indoor resting densities collected over a period of one year combined with predictions of the dynamical model give estimates of both aquatic habitat and total adult mosquito densities. Temperature and precipitation patterns are derived from monthly records. Precipitation patterns are compared with average and extreme habitat estimates to estimate available aquatic habitat in an annual cycle. These estimates are coupled with the original model to produce estimates of adult and larval populations dependent on changing aquatic carrying capacity for larvae and changing maturation and mortality dependent on temperature. This paper offers a general method for estimating the total area of aquatic habitat in a given region, based on larval counts, emergence rates, indoor resting density data, and number of households.Altering the average daily temperature and the average daily rainfall simulates the effect of climate change on annual cycles of prevalence of An. gambiae adults. We show that small increases in average annual temperature have a large impact on adult mosquito density, whether measured at model equilibrium values for a single square meter of habitat or tracked over the course of a year of varying habitat availability and temperature. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evaluation of Near-Tropopause Ozone Distributions in the Global Modeling Initiative Combined Stratosphere/Troposphere Model with Ozonesonde Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Considine, David B.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Olsen, Mark A.

2008-01-01

The NASA Global Modeling Initiative has developed a combined stratosphere/troposphere chemistry and transport model which fully represents the processes governing atmospheric composition near the tropopause. We evaluate model ozone distributions near the tropopause, using two high vertical resolution monthly mean ozone profile climatologies constructed with ozonesonde data, one by averaging on pressure levels and the other relative to the thermal tropopause. Model ozone is high biased at the SH tropical and NH midlatitude tropopause by approx. 45% in a 4 deg. latitude x 5 deg. longitude model simulation. Increasing the resolution to 2 deg. x 2.5 deg. increases the NH tropopause high bias to approx. 60%, but decreases the tropical tropopause bias to approx. 30%, an effect of a better-resolved residual circulation. The tropopause ozone biases appear not to be due to an overly vigorous residual circulation or excessive stratosphere/troposphere exchange, but are more likely due to insufficient vertical resolution or excessive vertical diffusion near the tropopause. In the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, model/measurement intercomparisons are strongly affected by the averaging technique. NH and tropical mean model lower stratospheric biases are less than 20%. In the upper troposphere, the 2 deg. x 2.5 deg. simulation exhibits mean high biases of approx. 20% and approx. 35% during April in the tropics and NH midlatitudes, respectively, compared to the pressure averaged climatology. However, relative-to-tropopause averaging produces upper troposphere high biases of approx. 30% and 70% in the tropics and NH midlatitudes. This is because relative-to-tropopause averaging better preserves large cross-tropopause O3 gradients, which are seen in the daily sonde data, but not in daily model profiles. The relative annual cycle of ozone near the tropopause is reproduced very well in the model Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In the tropics, the model amplitude of the near tropopause annual cycle is weak. This is likely due to the annual amplitude of mean vertical upwelling near the tropopause, which analysis suggests is approx. 30% weaker than in the real atmosphere.

20 CFR 30.805 - What evidence does OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced compensable wage-loss... OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced... the Social Security Administration to establish a covered Part E employee's presumed average annual...

20 CFR 30.805 - What evidence does OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced compensable wage-loss... OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced... the Social Security Administration to establish a covered Part E employee's presumed average annual...

Collaborative Modeling of the Benefits and Harms Associated With Different U.S. Breast Cancer Screening Strategies.

PubMed

Mandelblatt, Jeanne S; Stout, Natasha K; Schechter, Clyde B; van den Broek, Jeroen J; Miglioretti, Diana L; Krapcho, Martin; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Munoz, Diego; Lee, Sandra J; Berry, Donald A; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Kerlikowske, Karla; Tosteson, Anna N A; Near, Aimee M; Hoeffken, Amanda; Chang, Yaojen; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A; Chisholm, Gary; Huang, Xuelin; Huang, Hui; Ergun, Mehmet Ali; Gangnon, Ronald; Sprague, Brian L; Plevritis, Sylvia; Feuer, Eric; de Koning, Harry J; Cronin, Kathleen A

2016-02-16

Controversy persists about optimal mammography screening strategies. To evaluate screening outcomes, taking into account advances in mammography and treatment of breast cancer. Collaboration of 6 simulation models using national data on incidence, digital mammography performance, treatment effects, and other-cause mortality. United States. Average-risk U.S. female population and subgroups with varying risk, breast density, or comorbidity. Eight strategies differing by age at which screening starts (40, 45, or 50 years) and screening interval (annual, biennial, and hybrid [annual for women in their 40s and biennial thereafter]). All strategies assumed 100% adherence and stopped at age 74 years. Benefits (breast cancer-specific mortality reduction, breast cancer deaths averted, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years); number of mammograms used; harms (false-positive results, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis); and ratios of harms (or use) and benefits (efficiency) per 1000 screens. Biennial strategies were consistently the most efficient for average-risk women. Biennial screening from age 50 to 74 years avoided a median of 7 breast cancer deaths versus no screening; annual screening from age 40 to 74 years avoided an additional 3 deaths, but yielded 1988 more false-positive results and 11 more overdiagnoses per 1000 women screened. Annual screening from age 50 to 74 years was inefficient (similar benefits, but more harms than other strategies). For groups with a 2- to 4-fold increased risk, annual screening from age 40 years had similar harms and benefits as screening average-risk women biennially from 50 to 74 years. For groups with moderate or severe comorbidity, screening could stop at age 66 to 68 years. Other imaging technologies, polygenic risk, and nonadherence were not considered. Biennial screening for breast cancer is efficient for average-risk populations. Decisions about starting ages and intervals will depend on population characteristics and the decision makers' weight given to the harms and benefits of screening. National Institutes of Health.

Improving the representation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in the MOZART-4 global chemical transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Barsanti, K. C.

2012-12-01

The secondary organic aerosol (SOA) module in the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4) has been updated by replacing existing two-product (2p) parameters with those obtained from two-product volatility basis set (2p-VBS) fits, and by treating SOA formation from the following volatile organic compounds (VOCs): isoprene, propene and lumped alkenes. Strong seasonal and spatial variations in global SOA distributions were demonstrated, with significant differences in the predicted concentrations between the base-case and updated model versions. The base-case MOZART-4 predicted annual average SOA of 0.36 ± 0.50 μg m-3 in South America, 0.31 ± 0.38 μg m-3 in Indonesia, 0.09 ± 0.05 μg m-3 in the USA, and 0.12 ± 0.07 μg m-3 in Europe. Concentrations from the updated versions of the model showed a~marked increase in annual average SOA. Using the updated set of parameters alone (MZ4-v1) increased annual average SOA by ~8%, ~16%, ~56%, and ~108% from the base-case in South America, Indonesia, USA, and Europe, respectively. Treatment of additional parent VOCs (MZ4-v2) resulted in an even more dramatic increase of ~178-406% in annual average SOA for these regions over the base-case. The increases in predicted SOA concentrations further resulted in increases in corresponding SOA contributions to annual average total aerosol optical depth (AOD) by <1% for MZ4-v1 and ~1-6% for MZ4-v2. Estimated global SOA production was ~6.6 Tg yr-1 and ~19.1 Tg yr-1 with corresponding burdens of ~0.24 Tg and ~0.59 Tg using MZ4-v1 and MZ4-v2, respectively. The SOA budgets predicted in the current study fall well within reported ranges for similar modeling studies, 6.7 to 96 Tg yr-1, but are lower than recently reported observationally-constrained values, 50 to 380 Tg yr-1. With MZ4-v2, simulated SOA concentrations at the surface were also in reasonable agreement with comparable modeling studies and observations. Concentrations of estimated organic aerosol (OA) at the surface, however, showed under-prediction in Europe and over-prediction in the Amazonian regions and Malaysian Borneo during certain months of the year. Overall, the updated version of MOZART-4, MZ4-v2, showed consistently better skill in predicting SOA and OA levels and spatial distributions as compared with unmodified MOZART-4. The MZ4-v2 updates may be particularly important when MOZART-4 output is used to generate boundary conditions for regional air quality simulations that require more accurate representation of SOA concentrations and distributions.

Optical performance effects of the misalignment of nonimaging optics solar collectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferry, Jonathan; Ricketts, Melissa; Winston, Roland

2017-09-01

The use of non-imaging optics in the application of high temperature solar thermal collectors can be extremely advantageous in eliminating the need to track the sun. The stationary nature of non-imaging optics collectors, commonly called compound parabolic concentrators (CPC's), present a unique design challenge when orienting them to collect sunlight. Many facilities throughout the world that adopt CPCs are not situated to orient the collectors in the ideal angle facing the sun. This East-West misalignment can adversely affect the optical and power performance of the CPC collector. To characterize how this misalignment effects CPCs, reverse raytracing simulations are conducted for varying offset angles of the collectors from solar South. Optical performance is analyzed for an ideal East-West oriented CPC with a 40-degree acceptance angle. Direction cosine plots are used to develop a ratio of annual solar collection by the CPC over the total annual solar input. From these simulations, average annual collector performance is given for offset angles ranging from 0 to 90 degrees for different Earth Latitudes in 10 degree increments.

Assessment of hydrology, suspended sediment and particulate organic carbon transport in a large agricultural catchment using SWAT model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chantha, Oeurng; Sabine, Sauvage; José-Miguel, Sánchez-Pérez

2010-05-01

Suspended sediment transport from agricultural catchments to stream networks is responsible for aquatic habitat degradation, reservoir sedimentation and the transport of sediment-bound pollutants (pesticides, particulate nutrients, heavy metals and other toxic substances). Quantifying and understanding the dynamics of suspended sediment transfer from agricultural land to watercourses is essential in controlling soil erosion and in implementing appropriate mitigation practices to reduce stream suspended sediment and associated pollutant loads, and hence improve surface water quality downstream. Gascogne area, southwest France, has been dominated by anthropogenic activities particularly intensive agriculture causing severe erosion in recent decades. This leads to a major threat to surface water quality due to soil erosion. Therefore, the catchment water quality has been continuously monitored since January 2007 and the historical data of hydrology and suspended sediment has existed since 1998. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT 2005) was applied to assess hydrology, suspended sediment and particulate organic carbon in this catchment Agricultural management practices (crop rotation, planting date, fertilizer quantity and irrigations) were taken into the model for simulation period of 11 years (July, 1998 to March, 2009). The investigation was conducted using a 11-year streamflow and two years of suspended sediment record from January 2007 to March 2009. Modelling strategy with dominant landuse and soil type was chosen in this study. The SWAT generally performs satisfactorily and could simulate both daily and monthly runoff and sediment yield. The simulated daily and monthly runoff matched the observed values satisfactorily (ENash>0.5). For suspended sediment simulation, the simulated values were compared with the observed continuous suspended sediment derived from turbidity data. Based on the relationship between SSC and POC (R2 = 0.93), POC was modelled by simulated SSC from SWAT. The model predicted that the average annual catchment rainfall of the 11-year evaluation period (726 mm) with evapotranspiration (78.3%), percolation/groundwater recharge (14.1%), transmission loss (0.5%), and yielding surface runoff (7.1%). The simulated average total water yield of 11 years accounted for 138 mm (observed=133mm) and annual sediment yield varying from 4766 t to 123000 t (Mean= 48 t km-2). The annual yield of particulate organic carbon ranged from 120 t to 3100 t (Mean=1.2 t km-2).

Modelling the impact of retention-detention units on sewer surcharge and peak and annual runoff reduction.

PubMed

Locatelli, Luca; Gabriel, Søren; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Taylor, Heidi; Bockhorn, Britta; Larsen, Hauge; Kjølby, Morten Just; Blicher, Anne Steensen; Binning, Philip John

2015-01-01

Stormwater management using water sensitive urban design is expected to be part of future drainage systems. This paper aims to model the combination of local retention units, such as soakaways, with subsurface detention units. Soakaways are employed to reduce (by storage and infiltration) peak and volume stormwater runoff; however, large retention volumes are required for a significant peak reduction. Peak runoff can therefore be handled by combining detention units with soakaways. This paper models the impact of retrofitting retention-detention units for an existing urbanized catchment in Denmark. The impact of retrofitting a retention-detention unit of 3.3 m³/100 m² (volume/impervious area) was simulated for a small catchment in Copenhagen using MIKE URBAN. The retention-detention unit was shown to prevent flooding from the sewer for a 10-year rainfall event. Statistical analysis of continuous simulations covering 22 years showed that annual stormwater runoff was reduced by 68-87%, and that the retention volume was on average 53% full at the beginning of rain events. The effect of different retention-detention volume combinations was simulated, and results showed that allocating 20-40% of a soakaway volume to detention would significantly increase peak runoff reduction with a small reduction in the annual runoff.

Geohydrology and simulation of ground-water flow in the Red Clay Creek Basin, Chester County, Pennsylvania, and New Castle County, Delaware

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vogel, Karen L.; Reif, Andrew G.

1993-01-01

The 54-square-mile Red Clay Creek Basin, located in the lower Delaware River Basin, is underlain primarily by metamorphic rocks that range from Precambrian to Lower Paleozoic in age. Ground water flows through secondary openings in fractured crystalline rock and through primary openings below the water table in the overlying saprolite. Secondary porosity and permeability vary with hydrogeologic unit, topographic setting, and depth. Thirty-nine percent of the water-bearing zones are encountered within 100 feet of the land surface, and 79 percent are within 200 feet. The fractured crystalline rock and overlying saprolite act as a single aquifer under unconfined conditions. The water table is a subdued replica of the land surface. Local ground-water flow systems predominate in the basin, and natural ground-water discharge is to streams, comprising 62 to 71 percent of streamflow. Water budgets for 1988-90 for the 45-square-mile effective drainage area above the Woodale, Del., streamflow-measurement station show that annual precipitation ranged from 43.59 to 59.14 inches and averaged 49.81 inches, annual streamflow ranged from 15.35 to 26.33 inches and averaged 20.24 inches, and annual evapotranspiration ranged from 27.87 to 30.43 inches and averaged 28.98 inches. The crystalline rocks of the Red Clay Creek Basin were simulated two-dimensionally as a single aquifer under unconfined conditions. The model was calibrated for short-term steady-state conditions on November 2, 1990. Recharge was 8.32 inches per year. Values of aquifer hydraulic conductivity in hillside topographic settings ranged from 0.07 to 2.60 feet per day. Values of streambed hydraulic conductivity ranged from 0.08 to 26.0 feet per day. Prior to simulations where ground-water development was increased, the calibrated steady-state model was modified to approximate long-term average conditions in the basin. Base flow of 11.98 inches per year and a ground-water evapotranspiration rate of 2.17 inches per year were simulated by the model. Different combinations of ground-water supply and wastewater-disposal plans were simulated to assess their effects on the stream-aquifer system. Six of the simulations represent an increase in population of 14,283 and water use of 1.07 million gallons per day. One simulation represents an increase in population of 28,566 and water use of 2.14 million gallons per day. Reduction of average base flow is greatest for development plans with wastewater removed from the basin through sewers and is proportional to the amount of water removed from the basin. The development plan that had the least effect on water levels and base flow included on-lot wells and on-lot septic systems. Five organochlorine insecticides--lindane, DDT, dieldrin, heptachlor, and methoxychlor--were detected in ground water. Four organophosphorus insecticides--malathion, parathion, diazinon, and phorate--were detected in ground water. Four volatile organic compounds--benzene, toluene, tetrachloroethylene, and trichloroethylene--were detected in ground water. Phenol was detected at concentrations up to 8 micrograms per liter in water from 50 percent of 14 wells sampled. The concentration of dissolved nitrate in water from 18 percent of wells sampled exceeded 10 milligrams per liter as nitrogen; concentration of nitrate were as high as 19 milligrams per liter. PCB was detected in the bottom material of West Branch Red Clay Creek at Kennet Square at concentrations up to 5,600 micrograms per kilogram.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

PubMed

Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

2013-09-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Precipitation and runoff simulations of select perennial and ephemeral watersheds in the middle Carson River basin, Eagle, Dayton, and Churchill Valleys, west-central Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jeton, Anne E.; Maurer, Douglas K.

2011-01-01

The effect that land use may have on streamflow in the Carson River, and ultimately its impact on downstream users can be evaluated by simulating precipitation-runoff processes and estimating groundwater inflow in the middle Carson River in west-central Nevada. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, began a study in 2008 to evaluate groundwater flow in the Carson River basin extending from Eagle Valley to Churchill Valley, called the middle Carson River basin in this report. This report documents the development and calibration of 12 watershed models and presents model results and the estimated mean annual water budgets for the modeled watersheds. This part of the larger middle Carson River study will provide estimates of runoff tributary to the Carson River and the potential for groundwater inflow (defined here as that component of recharge derived from percolation of excess water from the soil zone to the groundwater reservoir). The model used for the study was the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, a physically based, distributed-parameter model designed to simulate precipitation and snowmelt runoff as well as snowpack accumulation and snowmelt processes. Models were developed for 2 perennial watersheds in Eagle Valley having gaged daily mean runoff, Ash Canyon Creek and Clear Creek, and for 10 ephemeral watersheds in the Dayton Valley and Churchill Valley hydrologic areas. Model calibration was constrained by daily mean runoff for the 2 perennial watersheds and for the 10 ephemeral watersheds by limited indirect runoff estimates and by mean annual runoff estimates derived from empirical methods. The models were further constrained by limited climate data adjusted for altitude differences using annual precipitation volumes estimated in a previous study. The calibration periods were water years 1980-2007 for Ash Canyon Creek, and water years 1991-2007 for Clear Creek. To allow for water budget comparisons to the ephemeral models, the two perennial models were then run from 1980 to 2007, the time period constrained somewhat by the later record for the high-altitude climate station used in the simulation. The daily mean values of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, and groundwater inflow simulated from the watershed models were summed to provide mean annual rates and volumes derived from each year of the simulation. Mean annual bias for the calibration period for Ash Canyon Creek and Clear Creek watersheds was within 6 and 3 percent, and relative errors were about 18 and -2 percent, respectively. For the 1980-2007 period of record, mean recharge efficiency and runoff efficiency (percentage of precipitation as groundwater inflow and runoff) averaged 7 and 39 percent, respectively, for Ash Canyon Creek, and 8 and 31 percent, respectively, for Clear Creek. For this same period, groundwater inflow volumes averaged about 500 acre-feet for Ash Canyon and 1,200 acre-feet for Clear Creek. The simulation period for the ephemeral watersheds ranged from water years 1978 to 2007. Mean annual simulated precipitation ranged from 6 to 11 inches. Estimates of recharge efficiency for the ephemeral watersheds ranged from 3 percent for Eureka Canyon to 7 percent for Eldorado Canyon. Runoff efficiency ranged from 7 percent for Eureka Canyon and 15 percent at Brunswick Canyon. For the 1978-2007 period, mean annual groundwater inflow volumes ranged from about 40 acre-feet for Eureka Canyon to just under 5,000 acre-feet for Churchill Canyon watershed. Watershed model results indicate significant interannual variability in the volumes of groundwater inflow caused by climate variations. For most of the modeled watersheds, little to no groundwater inflow was simulated for years with less than 8 inches of precipitation, unless those years were preceded by abnormally high precipitation years with significant subsurface storage carryover.

Steady State Staff Planning: The Experience of a "Mature" Liberal Arts College and Its Implications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lamson, George; And Others

The end of faculty growth in higher education has led to near panic predictions of aging, highly tenured, more costly, steady-state faculties as the "growth bulge" hired in the 1960's age. This study discusses two models for simulating the behavior over time of indices of faculty health such as average age and salary, annual new hires,…

On the Trend of the Annual Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature Range in the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, Dataset, 1844 -2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Examined are the annual averages, 10-year moving averages, decadal averages, and sunspot cycle (SC) length averages of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, during the interval 1844-2012. Strong upward trends are apparent in the Armagh surface-air temperatures (ASAT), while a strong downward trend is apparent in the DTR, especially when the ASAT data are averaged by decade or over individual SC lengths. The long-term decrease in the decadaland SC-averaged annual DTR occurs because the annual minimum temperatures have risen more quickly than the annual maximum temperatures. Estimates are given for the Armagh annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and the DTR for the current decade (2010-2019) and SC24.

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow, eastern and western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jeton, A.E.; Dettinger, M.D.; Smith, J. LaRue

1996-01-01

Precipitation-runoff models of the East Fork Carson and North Fork American Rivers were developed and calibrated for use in evaluating the sensitivity of streamflow in the north-central Sierra Nevada to climate change. The East Fork Carson River drains part of the rain-shadowed, eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada and is generally higher than the North Fork American River, which drains the wetter, western slope. First, a geographic information system was developed to describe the spatial variability of basin characteristics and to help estimate model parameters. The result was a partitioning of each basin into noncontiguous, but hydrologically uniform, land units. Hydrologic descriptions of these units were developed and the Precipitation- Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to simulate water and energy balances for each unit in response to daily weather conditions. The models were calibrated and verified using historical streamflows over 22-year (Carson River) and 42-year (American River) periods. Simulated annual streamflow errors average plus 10 percent of the observed flow for the East Fork Carson River basin and plus 15 percent for the North Fork American River basin. Interannual variability is well simulated overall, but, at daily scales, wet periods are simulated more accurately than drier periods. The simulated water budgets for the two basins are significantly different in seasonality of streamflow, sublimation, evapotranspiration, and snowmelt. The simulations indicate that differences in snowpack and snowmelt timing can play pervasive roles in determining the sensitivity of water resources to climate change, in terms of both resource availability and amount. The calibrated models were driven by more than 25 hypothetical climate-change scenarios, each 100 years long. The scenarios were synthesized and spatially disaggregated by methods designed to preserve realistic daily, monthly, annual, and spatial statistics. Simulated streamflow timing was not very sensitive to changes in mean precipitation, but was sensitive to changes in mean temperatures. Changes in annual streamflow amounts were amplified reflections of imposed mean precipitation changes, with especially large responses to wetter climates. In contrast, streamflow amount was surprisingly insensitive to mean temperature changes as a result of temporal links between peak snowmelt and the beginning of warm-season evapotranspiration. Comparisons of simulations driven by temporally detailed climate-model changes in which mean temperature changes vary from month to month and simulations in which uniform climate changes were imposed throughout the year indicate that the snowpack accumulates the influences of short-term conditions so that season average climate changes were more important than shorter term changes.

50 CFR 217.172 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... dolphin (Grampus griseus)—100 (an average of 20 annually). (vi) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—100 (an... right whale (Eubalaena glacialis)—120 (an average of 24 annually). (ii) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—145 (an average of 29 annually). (iii) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—390 (an average of 78...

50 CFR 217.172 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... dolphin (Grampus griseus)—100 (an average of 20 annually). (vi) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—100 (an... right whale (Eubalaena glacialis)—120 (an average of 24 annually). (ii) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—145 (an average of 29 annually). (iii) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—390 (an average of 78...

Hydrogeology of, and simulation of ground-water flow in a mantled carbonate-rock system, Cumberland Valley, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chichester, D.C.

1996-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study in a highly productive and complex regolith-mantled carbonate valley in the northeastern part of the Cumberland Valley, Pa., as part of its Appalachian Valleys and Piedmont Regional Aquifer-system Analysis program. The study was designed to quantify the hydrogeologic characteristics and understand the ground-water flow system of a highly productive and complex thickly mantled carbonate valley. The Cumberland Valley is characterized by complexly folded and faulted carbonate bedrock in the valley bottom, by shale and graywacke to the north, and by red-sedimentary and diabase rocks in the east-southeast. Near the southern valley hillslope, the carbonate rock is overlain by wedge-shaped deposit of regolith, up to 450 feet thick, that is composed of residual material, alluvium, and colluvium. Locally, saturated regolith is greater than 200 feet thick. Seepage-run data indicate that stream reaches, near valley walls, are losing water from the stream, through the regolith, to the ground-water system. Results of hydrograph-separation analyses indicate that base flow in stream basins dominated by regolith-mantled carbonate rock, carbonate rock, and carbonate rock and shale are 81.6, 93.0, and 67.7 percent of total streamflow, respectively. The relative high percentage for the regolith-mantled carbonate-rock basin indicates that the regolith stores precipitation and slowly, steadily releases this water to the carbonate-rock aquifer and to streams as base flow. Anomalies in water-table gradients and configuration are a result of topography and differences in the character and distribution of overburden material, permeability, rock type, and geologic structure. Most ground-water flow is local, and ground water discharges to nearby springs and streams. Regional flow is northeastward to the Susquehanna River. Average-annual water budgets were calculated for the period of record from two continuous streamflow-gaging stations. Average-annual precipitation range from 39.0 to 40.5 inches, and averages about 40 inches for the model area. Average-annual recharge, which was assumed equal to the average-annual base flow, ranged from 12 inches for the Conodoguinet Creek, and 15 inches for the Yellow Breeches Creek. The thickly-mantled carbonate system was modeled as a three- dimensional water-table aquifer. Recharge to, ground-water flow through, and discharge from the Cumberland Valley were simulated. The model was calibrated for steady-state conditions using average recharge and discharge data. Aquifer horizontal hydraulic conductivity was calculated from specific-capacity data for each geologic unit in the area. Particle-tracking analyses indicate that interbasin and intrabasin flows of groundwater occur within the Yellow Breeches Creek Basin and between the Yellow Breeches and Conodoguinet Creek Basins.

The Importance of Asia as a Source of Black Carbon to the Arctic Constrained by Aircraft and Surface Measurements.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, J.; Martin, R.; Morrow, A.; Sharma, S.; Huang, L.; Leaitch, W. R.; Burkart, J.; Schulz, H.; Zanatta, M.; Willis, M. D.; Henze, D. K.; Lee, C. J.; Herber, A. B.; Abbatt, J.

2017-12-01

The contribution of Asian sources to Arctic black carbon (BC) remains uncertain. We interpret a series of recent airborne (NETCARE 2015, PAMARCMiP 2009 and 2011 campaigns) and ground-based measurements (at Alert, Barrow and Ny-Ålesund) from multiple methods (thermal, laser incandescence and light absorption) with the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model and its adjoint to attribute the sources of Arctic BC. Our simulations with the addition of seasonally varying domestic heating and of gas flaring emissions are consistent with ground-based measurements of BC concentrations at Alert and Barrow to within 13% in winter and spring, and with airborne measurements to within 17 % except for an underestimation in the middle troposphere (500-700 hPa). Sensitivity simulations suggest that anthropogenic emissions from eastern and southern Asia have the largest impact on the Arctic BC column burden both in spring (56 %) and annually (37 %), with the largest contribution in the middle troposphere (400-700 hPa). Anthropogenic emissions from northern Asia are the primary source of the Arctic surface BC ( 40% annually). Our adjoint simulations indicate noteworthy contributions from emissions in eastern China (15 %) and western Siberia (6.5 %) to the Arctic BC loadings on an annual average. Emissions from as south as the Indo-Gangetic Plain have a substantial impact (6.3 % annually) on Arctic BC as well. The Tarim oilfield in western China stands out as the second most influential grid cell with an annual contribution of 2.6 %. Gas flaring emissions from oilfields in western Siberia have a striking impact (13 %) on Arctic BC loadings in January, comparable to the total influence of continental Europe and North America (6.5 % each in January).

Modeling thermospheric neutral density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Liying

Satellite drag prediction requires determination of thermospheric neutral density. The NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) and the global-mean Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIMEGCM) were used to quantify thermospheric neutral density and its variations, focusing on annual/semiannual variation, the effect of using measured solar irradiance on model calculations of solar-cycle variation, and global change in the thermosphere. Satellite drag data and the MSIS00 empirical model were utilized to compare to the TIEGCM simulations. The TIEGCM simulations indicated that eddy diffusion and its annual/semiannual variation is a mechanism for annual/semiannual density variation in the thermosphere. It was found that eddy diffusion near the turbopause can effectively influence thermospheric neutral density. Eddy diffusion, together with annual insolation variation and large-scale circulation, generated global annual/semiannual density variation observed by satellite drag. Using measured solar irradiance as solar input for the TIEGCM improved the solar-cycle dependency of the density calculation shown in F10.7 -based thermospheric empirical models. It has been found that the empirical models overestimate density at low solar activity. The TIEGCM simulations did not show such solar-cycle dependency. Using historic measurements of CO2 and F 10.7, simulations of the global-mean TIMEGCM showed that thermospheric neutral density at 400 km had an average long-term decrease of 1.7% per decade from 1970 to 2000. A forecast of density decrease for solar cycle 24 suggested that thermospheric density will decrease at 400 km from present to the end of solar cycle 24 at a rate of 2.7% per decade. Reduction in thermospheric density causes less atmospheric drag on earth-orbiting space objects. The implication of this long-term decrease of thermospheric neutral density is that it will increase the lifetime of satellites, but also it will increase the amount of space junk.

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-02-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. Climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 did not cause a statistically significant change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations within any major sub-region of California in the current study. Climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-year period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines particles (+32%) and wood combustion particles (+14%) when averaging across the population of the entire state. Enhanced stagnation also isolated populations from distant sources such as shipping (-61%) during extreme events. The combination of these factors altered the statewide population-averaged composition of particles during extreme events, with EC increasing by 23%, nitrate increasing by 58%, and sulfate decreasing by 46%.

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-08-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines particles (+32%) and wood combustion particles (+14%) when averaging across the population of the entire state. Enhanced stagnation also isolated populations from distant sources such as shipping (-61%) during extreme events. The combination of these factors altered the statewide population-averaged composition of particles during extreme events, with EC increasing by 23 %, nitrate increasing by 58%, and sulfate decreasing by 46%.

The consideration of atmospheric stability within wind farm AEP calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Jonas; Chang, Chi-Yao; Dörenkämper, Martin; Salimi, Milad; Teichmann, Tim; Stoevesandt, Bernhard

2016-09-01

The annual energy production of an existing wind farm including thermal stratification is calculated with two different methods and compared to the average of three years of SCADA data. The first method is based on steady state computational fluid dynamics simulations and the assumption of Reynolds-similarity at hub height. The second method is a wake modelling calculation, where a new stratification transformation model was imposed on the Jensen an Ainslie wake models. The inflow states for both approaches were obtained from one year WRF simulation data of the site. Although all models underestimate the mean wind speed and wake effects, the results from the phenomenological wake transformation are compatible with high-fidelity simulation results.

Hydrogeology and simulation of water flow in strata above Bearpaw Shale and equivalents of eastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hotchkiss, W.R.; Levings, J.F.

1986-01-01

The Powder River, Bull Mountains, and Williston basins of Montana and Wyoming were investigated to understand the geohydrology and subsurface water flow. Rocks were separated into: Fox Hills-lower Hell Creek aquifer (layer 1), upper Hell Creek confining layer (layer 2), Tullock aquifer (layer 3), Lebo confining layer (layer 4), and Tongue River aquifer (layer 5). Aquifer transmissivities were estimated from ratios of sand and shale and adjusted for kinematic viscosity and compaction. Vertical hydraulic conductance per unit area between layers was estimated. Potentiometric surface maps were drawn from limited data. A three-dimensional finite-difference model was used for simulation. Five stages of simulation decreased and standard error of estimate for hydraulic head from 135 to 110 feet for 739 observation nodes. The resulting mean transmissivities for layers 1-5 were 443, 191, 374, 217, and 721 sq ft/d. The corresponding mean vertical hydraulic conductances per unit area between the layers were simulated; they ranged from 0.000140 to 0.0000150. Mean annual recharge across the study area was about 0.26 percent of average annual precipitation. Large volumes of interlayer flow indicate the vertical flow may be significant. (USGS)

Influence of Transport on Two-Dimensional Model Simulation: 2. Stratospheric Aircraft Perturbations. 2; Stratospheric Aircraft Perturbations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleming, Eric L.; Jackman, Charles H.; Considine, David B.

1999-01-01

We have adopted the transport scenarios used in Part 1 to examine the sensitivity of stratospheric aircraft perturbations to transport changes in our 2-D model. Changes to the strength of the residual circulation in the upper troposphere and stratosphere and changes to the lower stratospheric K(sub zz) had similar effects in that increasing the transport rates decreased the overall stratospheric residence time and reduced the magnitude of the negative perturbation response in total ozone. Increasing the stratospheric K(sub yy) increased the residence time and enhanced the global scale negative total ozone response. However, increasing K(sub yy) along with self-consistent increases in the corresponding planetary wave drive, which leads to a stronger residual circulation, more than compensates for the K(sub yy)-effect, and results in a significantly weaker perturbation response, relative to the base case, throughout the stratosphere. We found a relatively minor model perturbation response sensitivity to the magnitude of K(sub yy) in the tropical stratosphere, and only a very small sensitivity to the magnitude of the horizontal mixing across the tropopause and to the strength of the mesospheric gravity wave drag and diffusion. These transport simulations also revealed a generally strong correlation between passive NO(sub y) accumulation and age of air throughout the stratosphere, such that faster transport rates resulted in a younger mean age and a smaller NO(y) mass accumulation. However, specific variations in K(sub yy) and mesospheric gravity wave strength exhibited very little NO(sub y)-age correlation in the lower stratosphere, similar to 3-D model simulations performed in the recent NASA "Models and Measurements" II analysis. The base model transport, which gives the most favorable overall comparison with inert tracer observations, simulated a global/annual mean total ozone response of -0.59%, with only a slightly larger response in the northern compared to the southern hemisphere. For transport scenarios which gave tracer simulations within some agreement with measurements, the annual/globally averaged total ozone response ranged from -0.45% to -0.70%. Our previous 1995 model exhibited overly fast transport rates, resulting in a global/annually averaged perturbation total ozone response of -0.25%, which is significantly weaker compared to the 1999 model. This illustrates how transport deficiencies can bias model simulations of stratospheric aircraft.

Simulation of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the lower San Antonio River Watershed, South-Central Texas, 2000-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lizarraga, Joy S.; Ockerman, Darwin J.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the San Antonio River Authority, the Evergreen Underground Water Conservation District, and the Goliad County Groundwater Conservation District, configured, calibrated, and tested a watershed model for a study area consisting of about 2,150 square miles of the lower San Antonio River watershed in Bexar, Guadalupe, Wilson, Karnes, DeWitt, Goliad, Victoria, and Refugio Counties in south-central Texas. The model simulates streamflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater recharge using rainfall, potential ET, and upstream discharge data obtained from National Weather Service meteorological stations and USGS streamflow-gaging stations. Additional time-series inputs to the model include wastewater treatment-plant discharges, withdrawals for cropland irrigation, and estimated inflows from springs. Model simulations of streamflow, ET, and groundwater recharge were done for 2000-2007. Because of the complexity of the study area, the lower San Antonio River watershed was divided into four subwatersheds; separate HSPF models were developed for each subwatershed. Simulation of the overall study area involved running simulations of the three upstream models, then running the downstream model. The surficial geology was simplified as nine contiguous water-budget zones to meet model computational limitations and also to define zones for which ET, recharge, and other water-budget information would be output by the model. The model was calibrated and tested using streamflow data from 10 streamflow-gaging stations; additionally, simulated ET was compared with measured ET from a meteorological station west of the study area. The model calibration is considered very good; streamflow volumes were calibrated to within 10 percent of measured streamflow volumes. During 2000-2007, the estimated annual mean rainfall for the water-budget zones ranged from 33.7 to 38.5 inches per year; the estimated annual mean rainfall for the entire watershed was 34.3 inches. Using the HSPF model it was estimated that for 2000-2007, less than 10 percent of the annual mean rainfall on the study watershed exited the watershed as streamflow, whereas about 82 percent, or an average of 28.2 inches per year, exited the watershed as ET. Estimated annual mean groundwater recharge for the entire study area was 3.0 inches, or about 9 percent of annual mean rainfall. Estimated annual mean recharge was largest in water-budget zone 3, the zone where the Carrizo Sand outcrops. In water-budget zone 3, the estimated annual mean recharge was 5.1 inches or about 15 percent of annual mean rainfall. Estimated annual mean recharge was smallest in water-budget zone 6, about 1.1 inches or about 3 percent of annual mean rainfall. The Cibolo Creek subwatershed and the subwatershed of the San Antonio River upstream from Cibolo Creek had the largest and smallest basin yields, about 4.8 inches and 1.2 inches, respectively. Estimated annual ET and annual recharge generally increased with increasing annual rainfall. Also, ET was larger in zones 8 and 9, the most downstream zones in the watershed. Model limitations include possible errors related to model conceptualization and parameter variability, lack of data to quantify certain model inputs, and measurement errors. Uncertainty regarding the degree to which available rainfall data represent actual rainfall is potentially the most serious source of measurement error.

Hydrogeology and steady-state numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the Lost Creek Designated Ground Water Basin, Weld, Adams, and Arapahoe Counties, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, L.R.

2010-01-01

The Lost Creek Designated Ground Water Basin (Lost Creek basin) is an important alluvial aquifer for irrigation, public supply, and domestic water uses in northeastern Colorado. Beginning in 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Lost Creek Ground Water Management District and the Colorado Water Conservation Board, collected hydrologic data and constructed a steady-state numerical groundwater flow model of the Lost Creek basin. The model builds upon the work of previous investigators to provide an updated tool for simulating the potential effects of various hydrologic stresses on groundwater flow and evaluating possible aquifer-management strategies. As part of model development, the thickness and extent of regolith sediments in the basin were mapped, and data were collected concerning aquifer recharge beneath native grassland, nonirrigated agricultural fields, irrigated agricultural fields, and ephemeral stream channels. The thickness and extent of regolith in the Lost Creek basin indicate the presence of a 2- to 7-mile-wide buried paleovalley that extends along the Lost Creek basin from south to north, where it joins the alluvial valley of the South Platte River valley. Regolith that fills the paleovalley is as much as about 190 ft thick. Average annual recharge from infiltration of precipitation on native grassland and nonirrigated agricultural fields was estimated by using the chloride mass-balance method to range from 0.1 to 0.6 inch, which represents about 1-4 percent of long-term average precipitation. Average annual recharge from infiltration of ephemeral streamflow was estimated by using apparent downward velocities of chloride peaks to range from 5.7 to 8.2 inches. Average annual recharge beneath irrigated agricultural fields was estimated by using passive-wick lysimeters and a water-balance approach to range from 0 to 11.3 inches, depending on irrigation method, soil type, crop type, and the net quantity of irrigation water applied. Estimated average annual recharge beneath irrigated agricultural fields represents about 0-43 percent of net irrigation. The U.S. Geological Survey modular groundwater modeling program, MODFLOW-2000, was used to develop a steady-state groundwater flow model of the Lost Creek basin. Groundwater in the basin is simulated generally to flow from the basin margins toward the center of the basin and northward along the paleovalley. The largest source of inflow to the model occurs from recharge beneath flood- and sprinkler-irrigated agricultural fields (14,510 acre-feet per year [acre-ft/yr]), which represents 39.7 percent of total simulated inflow. Other substantial sources of inflow to the model are recharge from precipitation and stream-channel infiltration in nonirrigated areas (13,810 acre-ft/yr) seepage from Olds Reservoir (4,280 acre-ft/yr), and subsurface inflow from ditches and irrigated fields outside the model domain (2,490 acre-ft/yr), which contribute 37.7, 11.7, and 6.8 percent, respectively, of total inflow. The largest outflow from the model occurs from irrigation well withdrawals (26,760 acre-ft/yr), which represent 73.2 percent of total outflow. Groundwater discharge (6,640 acre-ft/yr) at the downgradient end of the Lost Creek basin represents 18.2 percent of total outflow, and evapotranspiration (3,140 acre-ft/yr) represents about 8.6 percent of total outflow.

Combine the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) with sediment geochemistry to evaluate diffuse heavy metal loadings at watershed scale.

PubMed

Jiao, Wei; Ouyang, Wei; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Shan, Yushu; Geng, Xiaojun

2014-09-15

Assessing the diffuse pollutant loadings at watershed scale has become increasingly important when formulating effective watershed water management strategies, but the process was seldom achieved for heavy metals. In this study, the overall temporal-spatial variability of particulate Pb, Cu, Cr and Ni losses within an agricultural watershed was quantitatively evaluated by combining SWAT with sediment geochemistry. Results showed that the watershed particulate heavy metal loadings displayed strong variability in the simulation period 1981-2010, with an obvious increasing trend in recent years. The simulated annual average loadings were 20.21 g/ha, 21.75 g/ha, 47.35 g/ha and 21.27 g/ha for Pb, Cu, Cr and Ni, respectively. By comparison, these annual average values generally matched the estimated particulate heavy metal loadings at field scale. With spatial interpolation of field loadings, it was found that the diffuse heavy metal pollution mainly came from the sub-basins dominated with cultivated lands, accounting for over 70% of total watershed loadings. The watershed distribution of particulate heavy metal losses was very similar to that of soil loss but contrary to that of heavy metal concentrations in soil, highlighting the important role of sediment yield in controlling the diffuse heavy metal loadings. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation of Long-term Yield and Soil Water Consumption in Apple Orchards on the Loess Plateau, China, in Response to Fertilization.

PubMed

Peng, Xingxing; Guo, Zheng; Zhang, Yujiao; Li, Jun

2017-07-14

The Loess Plateau, China, is the world's largest apple-producing region, and over 80% of the orchards are in rainfed (dryland) areas. Desiccation of the deep soil layer under dryland apple orchards is the main stressor of apple production in this region. Fertilization is a factor that causes soil desiccation in dryland apple orchards. Given its applicability and precision validations, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to simulate the dynamics of fruit yield and deep soil desiccation in apple orchards under six fertilization treatments. During the 45 years of study, the annual fruit yield under the fertilization treatments initially increased and then decreased in a fluctuating manner, and the average fruit yields were 24.42, 27.27, 28.69, 29.63, 30.49 and 29.43 t/ha in these respective fertilization treatments. As fertilization increased, yield of the apple orchards increased first and then declined,desiccation of the soil layers occurred earlier and extended deeper, and the average annual water consumption, over-consumption and water use efficiency increased as fertilization increased. In terms of apple yields, sustainable soil water use, and economic benefits, the most appropriate fertilization rate for drylands in Luochuan is 360-480 kg/ha N and 180-240 kg/ha P.

Modelling and Evaluation of Environmental Impact due to Continuous Emissions of the Severonickel Plant (Kola Peninsula)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahura, A.; Gonzalez-Aparicio, I.; Nuterman, R.; Baklanov, A.

2012-04-01

In this study, evaluation of potential impact - through concentration, deposition and loadings patterns - on population and environment due to continuous anthropogenic emissions (on example of sulfates) of the Cu-Ni smelters of the Russian North is given. To estimate impact, the Danish Emergency Response Model for Atmosphere (DERMA) was employed to perform long-term simulations of air concentration, time integrated air concentration (TIAC), dry (DD) and wet (WD) deposition patterns resulting from continuous emissions of the Severonickel smelters located on the Kola Peninsula (Murmansk region, Russia). To perform such simulations the 3D meteorological fields (from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF) for the year 2000 were used as input. For simplicity, it has been assumed that normalized releases of sulfates from smelters location occurred at a constant rate every day. For each daily release the atmospheric transport, dispersion, dry and wet deposition due to removal processes were estimated during 10 day interval. Output from these long-term simulations is an essential input for evaluation of impact, doses, risks, and short- and long-term consequences, etc. Detailed analyses of simulated concentration and deposition fields allowed evaluating the spatial and temporal variability of resulted patterns on different scales. Temporal variability of both wet and dry deposition as well as their contribution into total deposition have been estimated. On an annual scale, the concentration and deposition patterns were estimated for the most populated cities of the North-West Russia. The modeled annual fields were also integrated into GIS environment as well as layers with population density (from the Center for International Earth Science Information Network, CIESIN) and standard administrative division of the North-West Russia and bordering countries. Furthermore, the estimation of deposited amounts (loadings) of sulfates for selected regions of Russia and border countries has been performed. It has been found that for the "mild emission scenario" (i.e. approx. 31.6 ths. ton), for the Severonickel smelters, the annual average daily dry deposition value is 5.79 ton (with the highest - 10.4 ton - in September, and the lowest - 2.9 ton - in March). The annual average daily wet deposition is 22.7 tons, and a strong month-to-month variability is seen compared with dry deposition. The highest average WD (46.3 ton) is in January, and the lowest - 5.5 ton - in July. There are also differences in amount deposited in total from daily releases. On an annual scale, on average, 32.9% of emitted amount could be deposited at the surface during the considered duration (i.e. 10 days) of atmospheric transport. The highest deposited amount of 57.2% is observed in January and the lowest of 14.3% - in July. Taking into account actual annual (on example of year 2000) emissions of sulfur dioxide as 45.3 ths. ton (Severonickel smelters, city of Monchegorsk), the summary annual time integrated air concentration, dry and wet deposition were re-scaled and these have been estimated for most populated cities (Arkhangelsk, Petrozavodsk, Sankt-Petersburg, Syktyvkar, Pskov, and Vologda) of the North-West Russia. It was found that among these cities, the TIAC is the highest - 86 μg•h/m3 - for Arkhangelsk and the lowest - 4 μg•h/m3 - for Pskov. Both dry and wet depositions were also the highest for Arkhangelsk - 0.5 and 2.2 mg/m2, respectively. Detailed analysis also showed that for regions surrounding the Kola Peninsula, on average (maximum), the total (dry plus wet) deposition was 0.6 (3.0), 1.8 (5.1), and 28.3 (122) mg/m2 for the territories of the Arkhangelsk, Karelia, and Murmansk regions of Russia. For border regions with Scandinavian countries, on average (maximum), the total deposition was 2.2 (6.7) mg/m2 in Finnmark (Norway); 0.2 (0.4) in Norrbotten and 0.03 (0.1) mg/m2 in Vsterbotten counties (Sweden); 0.6 (1.2) in Eastern Finland, 2.2 (7.2) in Lapland, and 1.4 (2.9) mg/m2 in Oulu provinces of Finland. For urban population living in the central and northern territories of the Kola Peninsula the yearly loading due to deposition of sulfates could be more than 40 kg/person. For bordering territories with the Murmansk region such loadings are less than 5 kg/person for the Eastern Finland, Karelia, and Arkhangelsk regions; and up to 15 kg/person - for the Northern Norway.

Spatial Distribution of Ground-Water Recharge Estimated with a Water-Budget Method for the Jordan Creek Watershed, Lehigh County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risser, Dennis W.

2008-01-01

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Geological Survey, to illustrate a water-budget method for mapping the spatial distribution of ground-water recharge for a 76-square-mile part of the Jordan Creek watershed, northwest of Allentown, in Lehigh County, Pennsylvania. Recharge was estimated by using the Hydrological Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) water-budget model for 577 landscape units in Jordan Creek watershed, delineated on the basis of their soils, land use/land cover, and mean annual precipitation during 1951-2000. The water-budget model routes precipitation falling on each landscape unit to components of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, storage, and vertical percolation (recharge) for a five-layer soil column on a daily basis. The spatial distribution of mean annual recharge during 1951-2000 for each landscape unit was mapped by the use of a geographic information system. Recharge simulated by the water-budget model in Jordan Creek watershed during 1951-2000 averaged 12.3 inches per year and ranged by landscape unit from 0.11 to 17.05 inches per year. Mean annual recharge during 1951-2000 simulated by the water-budget model was most sensitive to changes to input values for precipitation and runoff-curve number. Mean annual recharge values for the crop, forest, pasture, and low-density urban land-use/land-cover classes were similar (11.2 to 12.2 inches per year) but were substantially less for high-density urban (6.8 inches per year), herbaceous wetlands (2.5 inches per year), and forested wetlands (1.3 inches per year). Recharge rates simulated for the crop, forest, pasture, and low-density urban land-cover classes were similar because those land-use/land-cover classes are represented in the model with parameter values that either did not significantly affect simulated recharge or tended to have offsetting effects on recharge. For example, for landscapes with forest land cover, values of runoff-curve number assigned to the model were smaller than for other land-use/land-cover classes (causing more recharge and less runoff), but the maximum depth of evapotranspiration was larger than for other land-use/ land-cover classes because of deeper root penetration in forests (causing more evapotranspiration and less recharge). The smaller simulated recharge for high-density urban and wetland land-use/land-cover classes was caused by the large values of runoff-curve number (greater than 90) assigned to those classes. The large runoff-curve number, however, certainly is not realistic for all wetlands; some wetlands act as areas of ground-water discharge and some as areas of recharge. Simulated mean annual recharge computed by the water-budget model for the 53-square-mile part of the watershed upstream from the streamflow-gaging station near Schnecksville was compared to estimates of recharge and base flow determined by analysis of streamflow records from 1967 to 2000. The mean annual recharge of 12.4 inches per year simulated by the water-budget method for 1967-2000 was less than estimates of mean annual recharge of 19.3 inches per year computed from the RORA computer program and base flow computed by the PART computer program (15.1 inches per year). In theory, the water-budget method provides a practical tool for estimating differences in recharge at local scales of interest, and the watershed- average recharge rate of 12.4 inches per year computed by the method is reasonable. However, the mean annual surface runoff of 4.5 inches per year simulated by the model is unrealistically small. The sum of surface runoff and recharge simulated by the water-budget model (16.9 inches per year) is 7 inches per year less than the streamflow measured at the gaging station near Schnecksville (23.9 inches per year) during 1967-2000, indicating that evapotranspiration is overestimated by the water-budget model by that amount. This discrepancy ca

Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Tiedeman, Claire; O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Davis, Jeffrey B.; Burger, Patrick

2012-01-01

A numerical transient model of the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida was developed to (1) increase the understanding of water exchanges between the surficial and the Floridan aquifer systems, (2) assess the recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system from infiltration through the unsaturated zone and (3) obtain a simulation tool that could be used by water-resource managers to assess the impact of changes in groundwater withdrawals on spring flows and on the potentiometric surfaces of the hydrogeologic units composing the Floridan aquifer system. The hydrogeology of east-central Florida was evaluated and used to develop and calibrate the groundwater flow model, which simulates the regional fresh groundwater flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional groundwater flow model, MODFLOW-2005, was used to simulate transient groundwater flow in the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems from 1995 to 2006. The East-Central Florida Transient model encompasses an actively simulated area of about 9,000 square miles. Although the model includes surficial processes-rainfall, irrigation, evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, infiltration, lake water levels, and stream water levels and flows-its primary purpose is to characterize and refine the understanding of groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system. Model-independent estimates of the partitioning of rainfall into ET, streamflow, and aquifer recharge are provided from a water-budget analysis of the surficial aquifer system. The interaction of the groundwater flow system with the surface environment was simulated using the Green-Ampt infiltration method and the MODFLOW-2005 Unsaturated-Zone Flow, Lake, and Streamflow-Routing Packages. The model is intended to simulate the part of the groundwater system that contains freshwater. The bottom and lateral boundaries of the model were established at the estimated depths where the chloride concentration is 5,000 milligrams per liter in the Floridan aquifer system. Potential flow across the interface represented by this chloride concentration is simulated by the General Head Boundary Package. During 1995 through 2006, there were no major groundwater withdrawals near the freshwater and saline-water interface, making the general head boundary a suitable feature to estimate flow through the interface. The east-central Florida transient model was calibrated using the inverse parameter estimation code, PEST. Steady-state models for 1999 and 2003 were developed to estimate hydraulic conductivity (K) using average annual heads and spring flows as observations. The spatial variation of K was represented using zones of constant values in some layers, and pilot points in other layers. Estimated K values were within one order of magnitude of aquifer performance test data. A simulation of the final two years (2005-2006) of the 12-year model, with the K estimates from the steady-state calibration, was used to guide the estimation of specific yield and specific storage values. The final model yielded head and spring-flow residuals that met the calibration criteria for the 12-year transient simulation. The overall mean residual for heads, defining residual as simulated minus measured value, was -0.04 foot. The overall root-mean square residual for heads was less than 3.6 feet for each year in the 1995 to 2006 simulation period. The overall mean residual for spring flows was -0.3 cubic foot per second. The spatial distribution of head residuals was generally random, with some minor indications of bias. Simulated average ET over the 1995 to 2006 period was 34.47 inches per year, compared to the calculated average ET rate of 36.39 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system was 3.58 inches per year, compared with the calculated average of 3.39 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system averaged about 920 million gallons per day, which is equivalent to about 2 inches per year over the model area and slightly more than half of the simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system over the same period. Annual net simulated recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system were less than the total groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system only during the below-average rainfall years of 2000 and 2006.

Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Tiedeman, Claire; O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Davis, Jeffery B.; Burger, Patrick

2012-01-01

A numerical transient model of the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida was developed to (1) increase the understanding of water exchanges between the surficial and the Floridan aquifer systems, (2) assess the recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system from infiltration through the unsaturated zone and (3) obtain a simulation tool that could be used by water-resource managers to assess the impact of changes in groundwater withdrawals on spring flows and on the potentiometric surfaces of the hydrogeologic units composing the Floridan aquifer system. The hydrogeology of east-central Florida was evaluated and used to develop and calibrate the groundwater flow model, which simulates the regional fresh groundwater flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional groundwater flow model, MODFLOW-2005, was used to simulate transient groundwater flow in the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems from 1995 to 2006. The east-central Florida transient model encompasses an actively simulated area of about 9,000 square miles. Although the model includes surficial processes-rainfall, irrigation, evapotranspiration, runoff, infiltration, lake water levels, and stream water levels and flows-its primary purpose is to characterize and refine the understanding of groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system. Model-independent estimates of the partitioning of rainfall into evapotranspiration, streamflow, and aquifer recharge are provided from a water-budget analysis of the surficial aquifer system. The interaction of the groundwater flow system with the surface environment was simulated using the Green-Ampt infiltration method and the MODFLOW-2005 Unsaturated-Zone Flow, Lake, and Streamflow-Routing Packages. The model is intended to simulate the part of the groundwater system that contains freshwater. The bottom and lateral boundaries of the model were established at the estimated depths where the chloride concentration is 5,000 milligrams per liter in the Floridan aquifer system. Potential flow across the interface represented by this chloride concentration is simulated by the General Head Boundary Package. During 1995 through 2006, there were no major groundwater withdrawals near the freshwater and saline-water interface, making the general head boundary a suitable feature to estimate flow through the interface. The east-central Florida transient model was calibrated using the inverse parameter estimation code, PEST. Steady-state models for 1999 and 2003 were developed to estimate hydraulic conductivity (K) using average annual heads and spring flows as observations. The spatial variation of K was represented using zones of constant values in some layers, and pilot points in other layers. Estimated K values were within one order of magnitude of aquifer performance test data. A simulation of the final two years (2005-2006) of the 12-year model, with the K estimates from the steady-state calibration, was used to guide the estimation of specific yield and specific storage values. The final model yielded head and spring-flow residuals that met the calibration criteria for the 12-year transient simulation. The overall mean residual for heads, defining residual as simulated minus measured value, was -0.04 foot. The overall root-mean square residual for heads was less than 3.6 feet for each year in the 1995 to 2006 simulation period. The overall mean residual for spring flows was -0.3 cubic foot per second. The spatial distribution of head residuals was generally random, with some minor indications of bias. Simulated average evapotranspiration (ET) over the 1995 to 2006 period was 34.5 inches per year, compared to the calculated average ET rate of 36.6 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system was 3.6 inches per year, compared with the calculated average of 3.2 inches per year from the model-independent waterbudget analysis. Groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system averaged about 800 million gallons per day, which is equivalent to about 2 inches per year over the model area and slightly more than half of the simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system over the same period. Annual net simulated recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system were less than the total groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system only during the below-average rainfall years of 2000 and 2006.

Simulation of ground-water flow and evaluation of water-management alternatives in the upper Charles River basin, eastern Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeSimone, Leslie A.; Walter, Donald A.; Eggleston, John R.; Nimiroski, Mark T.

2002-01-01

Ground water is the primary source of drinking water for towns in the upper Charles River Basin, an area of 105 square miles in eastern Massachusetts that is undergoing rapid growth. The stratified-glacial aquifers in the basin are high yield, but also are thin, discontinuous, and in close hydraulic connection with streams, ponds, and wetlands. Water withdrawals averaged 10.1 million gallons per day in 1989?98 and are likely to increase in response to rapid growth. These withdrawals deplete streamflow and lower pond levels. A study was conducted to develop tools for evaluating water-management alternatives at the regional scale in the basin. Geologic and hydrologic data were compiled and collected to characterize the ground- and surface-water systems. Numerical flow modeling techniques were applied to evaluate the effects of increased withdrawals and altered recharge on ground-water levels, pond levels, and stream base flow. Simulation-optimization methods also were applied to test their efficacy for management of multiple water-supply and water-resource needs. Steady-state and transient ground-water-flow models were developed using the numerical modeling code MODFLOW-2000. The models were calibrated to 1989?98 average annual conditions of water withdrawals, water levels, and stream base flow. Model recharge rates were varied spatially, by land use, surficial geology, and septic-tank return flow. Recharge was changed during model calibration by means of parameter-estimation techniques to better match the estimated average annual base flow; area-weighted rates averaged 22.5 inches per year for the basin. Water withdrawals accounted for about 7 percent of total simulated flows through the stream-aquifer system and were about equal in magnitude to model-calculated rates of ground-water evapotranspiration from wetlands and ponds in aquifer areas. Water withdrawals as percentages of total flow varied spatially and temporally within an average year; maximum values were 12 to 13 percent of total annual flow in some subbasins and of total monthly flow throughout the basin in summer and early fall. Water-management alternatives were evaluated by simulating hypothetical scenarios of increased withdrawals and altered recharge for average 1989?98 conditions with the flow models. Increased withdrawals to maximum State-permitted levels would result in withdrawals of about 15 million gallons per day, or about 50 percent more than current withdrawals. Model-calculated effects of these increased withdrawals included reductions in stream base flow that were greatest (as a percentage of total flow) in late summer and early fall. These reductions ranged from less than 5 percent to more than 60 percent of model-calculated 1989?98 base flow along reaches of the Charles River and major tributaries during low-flow periods. Reductions in base flow generally were comparable to upstream increases in withdrawals, but were slightly less than upstream withdrawals in areas where septic-system return flow was simulated. Increased withdrawals also increased the proportion of wastewater in the Charles River downstream of treatment facilities. The wastewater component increased downstream from a treatment facility in Milford from 80 percent of September base flow under 1989?98 conditions to 90 percent of base flow, and from 18 to 27 percent of September base flow downstream of a treatment facility in Medway. In another set of hypothetical scenarios, additional recharge equal to the transfer of water out of a typical subbasin by sewers was found to increase model-calculated base flows by about 12 percent of model-calculated base flows. Addition of recharge equal to that available from artificial recharge of residential rooftop runoff had smaller effects, augmenting simulated September base flow by about 3 percent. Simulation-optimization methods were applied to an area near Populatic Pond and the confluence of the Mill and Charles Rivers in Franklin,

50 CFR 218.171 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...); (2) Northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus)—220 (an average of 44 annually); (3) California sea lion (Zalophus californianus)—570 (an average of 114 annually); (4) Northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris)—70 (an average of 14 annually); (5) Harbor seal (Phoca vitulina richardsi) (Washington Inland...

Hydrological simulation of a small ungauged agricultural watershed Semrakalwana of Northern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Himanshu; Denis, Derrick Mario; Suryavanshi, Shakti; Kumar, Mukesh; Srivastava, Santosh Kumar; Denis, Anjelo Francis; Kumar, Rajendra

2017-10-01

A study was conducted to develop a hydrological model for agriculture dominated Semra watershed (4.31 km2) and Semrakalwana village at Allahabad using a semi distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. In model evaluation it was found that the SWAT does not require much calibration, and therefore, can be employed in unguaged watershed. A seasonal (Kharif, Rabi and Zaid seasons) and annual water budget analysis was performed to quantify various components of the hydrologic cycle. The average annual surface runoff varied from 379 to 386 mm while the evapotranspiration of the village was in the range of 359-364 mm. The average annual percolation and return flow was found to be 265-272 mm and 147-255 mm, respectively. The initial soil water content of the village was found in the range of 328-335 mm while the final soil water content was 356-362 mm. The study area fall under a rain-fed river basin (Tons River basin) with no contribution from snowmelt, the winter and summer season is highly affected by less water availability for crops and municipal use. Seasonal (Rabi, Kharif and Zaid crop seasons) and annual water budget of Semra watershed and Semrakalwana village evoke the need of conservation structures such as check dams, farm ponds, percolation tank, vegetative barrier, etc. to reduce monsoon runoff and conserve it for basin requirements for winter and summer period.

50 CFR 216.272 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... electra)—100 (an average of 20 annually) (S) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—100 (an average of 20 annually) (T) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—100 (an average of 20 annually) (U) Killer whale... percent of the number of takes indicated below): (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera...

50 CFR 217.142 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... method and amount of take: (1) Level B Harassment: (i) Cetaceans: (A) Bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus)—75 (an average of 15 annually) (B) Gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus)—10 (an average of 2 annually) (C) Beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas)—100 (an average of 20 annually) (ii) Pinnipeds: (A) Ringed...

Sediment measurement and transport modeling: impact of riparian and filter strip buffers.

PubMed

Moriasi, Daniel N; Steiner, Jean L; Arnold, Jeffrey G

2011-01-01

Well-calibrated models are cost-effective tools to quantify environmental benefits of conservation practices, but lack of data for parameterization and evaluation remains a weakness to modeling. Research was conducted in southwestern Oklahoma within the Cobb Creek subwatershed (CCSW) to develop cost-effective methods to collect stream channel parameterization and evaluation data for modeling in watersheds with sparse data. Specifically, (i) simple stream channel observations obtained by rapid geomorphic assessment (RGA) were used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model stream channel variables before calibrating SWAT for streamflow and sediment, and (ii) average annual reservoir sedimentation rate, measured at the Crowder Lake using the acoustic profiling system (APS), was used to cross-check Crowder Lake sediment accumulation rate simulated by SWAT. Additionally, the calibrated and cross-checked SWAT model was used to simulate impacts of riparian forest buffer (RF) and bermudagrass [ (L.) Pers.] filter strip buffer (BFS) on sediment yield and concentration in the CCSW. The measured average annual sedimentation rate was between 1.7 and 3.5 t ha yr compared with simulated sediment rate of 2.4 t ha yr Application of BFS across cropped fields resulted in a 72% reduction of sediment delivery to the stream, while the RF and the combined RF and BFS reduced the suspended sediment concentration at the CCSW outlet by 68 and 73%, respectively. Effective riparian practices have potential to increase reservoir life. These results indicate promise for using the RGA and APS methods to obtain data to improve water quality simulations in ungauged watersheds. American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America.

RCCM2-BATS model over tropical South America: Applications to tropical deforestation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hahmann, A.N.; Dickinson, R.E.

A multiyear simulation of the global climate uses a revised version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 2 (CCM2) coupled to the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). It is compared with global and rain gauge precipitation climatologies to evaluate precipitation fields and European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts analyses to evaluate the atmospheric circulation. The near-surface climate is compared with data from Amazonian field campaigns. The model simulation of the South American climate agrees closely with the observational record and is much improved from past simulations with previous versions of the NCAR Community Climate model overmore » this portion of the Tropics. The model is then used to study the local and regional response to tropical deforestation over Amazonia. In addition to the standard deforestation forcing, consisting mainly of increased albedo and decreased roughness length, two additional sensitivity experiments were conducted to assess the individual contributions from these forcings to the deforestation changes. The standard deforestation simulation shows slight increases in annually averaged surface temperature (+1{degrees}C) and reductions in annually averaged precipitation and evaporation (-363 and -149 mm yr{sup -1}, respectively). As expected, increases in surface albedo over Amazonia produce a reduction in net downward solar radiation at the surface and consequently a reduction in net surface radiation and surface latent heat flux. The roughness decrease, on the other hand, reduces the surface latent heat fluxes through decreases in the surface drag coefficient. The regional changes in moisture convergence and precipitation during the Amazonian wet season display a shift in the area of maximum precipitation rather than an overall decrease over the deforested area. 45 refs., 16 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Improving the representation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in the MOZART-4 global chemical transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Barsanti, K.

2013-07-01

The secondary organic aerosol (SOA) module in the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4) was updated by replacing existing two-product (2p) parameters with those obtained from two-product volatility basis set (2p-VBS) fits (MZ4-C1), and by treating SOA formation from the following additional volatile organic compounds (VOCs): isoprene, propene and lumped alkenes (MZ4-C2). Strong seasonal and spatial variations in global SOA distributions were demonstrated, with significant differences in the predicted concentrations between the base case and updated model simulations. Updates to the model resulted in significant increases in annual average SOA mass concentrations, particularly for the MZ4-C2 simulation in which the additional SOA precursor VOCs were treated. Annual average SOA concentrations predicted by the MZ4-C2 simulation were 1.00 ± 1.04 μg m-3 in South America, 1.57 ± 1.88 μg m-3 in Indonesia, 0.37 ± 0.27 μg m-3 in the USA, and 0.47 ± 0.29 μg m-3 in Europe with corresponding increases of 178, 406, 311 and 292% over the base-case simulation, respectively, primarily due to inclusion of isoprene. The increases in predicted SOA mass concentrations resulted in corresponding increases in SOA contributions to annual average total aerosol optical depth (AOD) by ~ 1-6%. Estimated global SOA production was 5.8, 6.6 and 19.1 Tg yr-1 with corresponding burdens of 0.22, 0.24 and 0.59 Tg for the base-case, MZ4-C1 and MZ4-C2 simulations, respectively. The predicted SOA budgets fell well within reported ranges for comparable modeling studies, 6.7 to 96 Tg yr-1, but were lower than recently reported observationally constrained values, 50 to 380 Tg yr-1. For MZ4-C2, simulated SOA concentrations at the surface also were in reasonable agreement with comparable modeling studies and observations. Total organic aerosol (OA) mass concentrations at the surface, however, were slightly over-predicted in Europe, Amazonian regions and Malaysian Borneo (Southeast Asia) during certain months of the year, and under-predicted in most sites in Asia; relative to those regions, the model performed better for sites in North America. Overall, with the inclusion of additional SOA precursors (MZ4-C2), namely isoprene, MOZART-4 showed consistently better skill (NMB (normalized mean bias) of -11 vs. -26%) in predicting total OA levels and spatial distributions of SOA as compared with unmodified MOZART-4. Treatment of SOA formation by these known precursors (isoprene, propene and lumped alkenes) may be particularly important when MOZART-4 output is used to generate boundary conditions for regional air quality simulations that require more accurate representation of SOA concentrations and distributions.

Satellite-derived methane hotspot emission estimates using a fast data-driven method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchwitz, Michael; Schneising, Oliver; Reuter, Maximilian; Heymann, Jens; Krautwurst, Sven; Bovensmann, Heinrich; Burrows, John P.; Boesch, Hartmut; Parker, Robert J.; Somkuti, Peter; Detmers, Rob G.; Hasekamp, Otto P.; Aben, Ilse; Butz, André; Frankenberg, Christian; Turner, Alexander J.

2017-05-01

Methane is an important atmospheric greenhouse gas and an adequate understanding of its emission sources is needed for climate change assessments, predictions, and the development and verification of emission mitigation strategies. Satellite retrievals of near-surface-sensitive column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of atmospheric methane, i.e. XCH4, can be used to quantify methane emissions. Maps of time-averaged satellite-derived XCH4 show regionally elevated methane over several methane source regions. In order to obtain methane emissions of these source regions we use a simple and fast data-driven method to estimate annual methane emissions and corresponding 1σ uncertainties directly from maps of annually averaged satellite XCH4. From theoretical considerations we expect that our method tends to underestimate emissions. When applying our method to high-resolution atmospheric methane simulations, we typically find agreement within the uncertainty range of our method (often 100 %) but also find that our method tends to underestimate emissions by typically about 40 %. To what extent these findings are model dependent needs to be assessed. We apply our method to an ensemble of satellite XCH4 data products consisting of two products from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT and two products from TANSO-FTS/GOSAT covering the time period 2003-2014. We obtain annual emissions of four source areas: Four Corners in the south-western USA, the southern part of Central Valley, California, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. We find that our estimated emissions are in good agreement with independently derived estimates for Four Corners and Azerbaijan. For the Central Valley and Turkmenistan our estimated annual emissions are higher compared to the EDGAR v4.2 anthropogenic emission inventory. For Turkmenistan we find on average about 50 % higher emissions with our annual emission uncertainty estimates overlapping with the EDGAR emissions. For the region around Bakersfield in the Central Valley we find a factor of 5-8 higher emissions compared to EDGAR, albeit with large uncertainty. Major methane emission sources in this region are oil/gas and livestock. Our findings corroborate recently published studies based on aircraft and satellite measurements and new bottom-up estimates reporting significantly underestimated methane emissions of oil/gas and/or livestock in this area in EDGAR.

Trade-offs among ecosystem services in a typical Karst watershed, SW China.

PubMed

Tian, Yichao; Wang, Shijie; Bai, Xiaoyong; Luo, Guangjie; Xu, Yan

2016-10-01

Nowadays, most research results on ecosystem services in Karst areas are limited to a single function of an ecosystem service. Few scholars conduct a comparative study on the mutual relationships among ecosystem services, let alone reveal the trade-off and synergic relationships in typical Karst watershed. This research aims to understand and quantitatively evaluate the relationships among ecosystem services in a typical Karst watershed, broaden the depth and width of trade-off and synergic relationships in ecosystem services and explore a set of technical processes involved in these relationships. With the Shibantang Karst watershed in China as the research site, we explore the trade-off and synergic relationships of net primary productivity (NPP), water yield, and sediment yield by coupling Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA), and simulating and evaluating these three ecosystem services between 2000 and 2010. Results of this study are as follows. (1) The annual average water yield decreased from 528mm in 2000 to 513mm in 2010, decreasing by 2.84%. (2) The annual average sediment yield decreased from 26.15t/ha in 2000 to 23.81t/ha in 2010, with an average annual reduction of 0.23t/ha. (3) The annual average NPP increased from 739.38gCm(-2)a(-1) in 2000 to 746.25gCm(-2)a(-1) in 2010, increasing by 6.87gCm(-2)a(-1) . (4) Water yield and sediment yield are in a synergic relationship. The increase of water yield can accumulate the soil erosion amount. NPP is in a trade-off relationship with water yield and sediment yield. The improvement of NPP is good for decreasing water yield and soil erosion amount and increasing soil conservation amount. This study provides policy makers and planners an approach to develop an integrated model, as well as design mapping and monitoring protocols for land use change and ecosystem service assessments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Air quality impact of the coal-fired power plants in the northern passageway of the China West-East Power Transmission Project.

PubMed

Xue, Zhigang; Hao, Jiming; Chai, Fahe; Duan, Ning; Chen, Yizhen; Li, Jindan; Chen, Fu; Liu, Simei; Pu, Wenqing

2005-12-01

This paper analyzes the air quality impacts of coal-fired power plants in the northern passageway of the West-East Power Transmission Project in China. A three-layer Lagrangian model called ATMOS, was used to simulate the spatial distribution of incremental sulfur dioxide (SO2) and coarse particulate matter (PM10) concentrations under different emission control scenarios. In the year 2005, the emissions from planned power plants mainly affected the air quality of Shanxi, Shaanxi, the common boundary of Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, and the area around the boundary between Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. In these areas, the annually averaged incremental SO2 and PM10 concentrations exceed 2 and 2.5 microg/m3, respectively. The maximum increases of the annually averaged SO2 and PM10 concentrations are 8.3 and 7.2 microg/m3, respectively, which occur around Hancheng city, near the boundary of the Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces. After integrated control measures are considered, the maximum increases of annually averaged SO2 and PM10 concentrations fall to 4.9 and 4 microg/m3, respectively. In the year 2010, the areas affected by planned power plants are mainly North Shaanxi, North Ningxia, and Northwest Shanxi. The maximum increases of the annually averaged SO2 and PM10, concentrations are, respectively, 6.3 and 5.6 microg/m3, occurring in Northwest Shanxi, which decline to 4.4 and 4.1 microg/m3 after the control measures are implemented. The results showed that the proposed power plants mainly affect the air quality of the region where the power plants are built, with little impact on East China where the electricity will be used. The influences of planned power plants on air quality will be decreased greatly by implementing integrated control measures.

Impact of the Mountain Pine Beetle on the Forest Carbon Cycle in British Columbia from 1999 TO 2008 (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J. M.; Czurylowicz, P.; Mo, G.; Black, T. A.

2013-12-01

The unprecedented mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) (MPB) outbreak in British Columbia starting in 1998 affected about 50% of the lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forests occupying about 50% of the land area of the province. The impact of this outbreak on the C cycle is assessed in this study. Annual leaf area index (LAI) maps of the affected area from 1999 to 2008 were produced using SPOT VEGETATION data, and net ecosystem production (NEP) was modeled using inputs of LAI, land cover, soil texture and daily meteorological data with the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS). Both LAI and NEP were validated using field measurements. LAI was found to decrease on average by 20% compared to pre-outbreak conditions, while NEP decreased on average by 90%. Annual NEP values ranged from 2.4 to -8.0 Tg C between 1999 and 2008, with the ecosystem changing from a carbon sink to a carbon source in 2000. The annual average NEP was -2.9 Tg C over the 10 years, resulting in a total loss of carbon of 29 Tg C to the atmosphere. The inter-annual variability of both LAI and NEP was characterized by substantial initial decreases followed by steady increases from 2006 to 2008 with NEP returning to near carbon neutrality in 2008 (-1.8 Pg C/y). The impact of this MPB outbreak appears to be less dramatic than previously anticipated. The apparent fast recovery of LAI and NEP after MPB attacks is examined under the framework of ecosystem resilience which was manifested in the form of secondary overstory and understory growth and increased production of non-attacked host trees.

Wind Resource Assessment of Gujarat (India)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Draxl, C.; Purkayastha, A.; Parker, Z.

India is one of the largest wind energy markets in the world. In 1986 Gujarat was the first Indian state to install a wind power project. In February 2013, the installed wind capacity in Gujarat was 3,093 MW. Due to the uncertainty around existing wind energy assessments in India, this analysis uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the wind at current hub heights for one year to provide more precise estimates of wind resources in Gujarat. The WRF model allows for accurate simulations of winds near the surface and at heights important for wind energy purposes.more » While previous resource assessments published wind power density, we focus on average wind speeds, which can be converted to wind power densities by the user with methods of their choice. The wind resource estimates in this study show regions with average annual wind speeds of more than 8 m/s.« less

50 CFR 218.102 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—4,120 (an average of 824 annually); (B) Killer whale...) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—14,315 (an average of 2,863 annually); (J) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—800 (an average of 160 annually); (K) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—6,445...

50 CFR 218.102 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—4,120 (an average of 824 annually); (B) Killer whale...) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—14,315 (an average of 2,863 annually); (J) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—800 (an average of 160 annually); (K) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—6,445...

50 CFR 218.102 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—4,120 (an average of 824 annually); (B) Killer whale...) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—14,315 (an average of 2,863 annually); (J) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—800 (an average of 160 annually); (K) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—6,445...

50 CFR 218.102 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

...) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—4,120 (an average of 824 annually); (B) Killer whale...) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—14,315 (an average of 2,863 annually); (J) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—800 (an average of 160 annually); (K) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—6,445...

50 CFR 218.2 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...: (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—10 (an average of 2 annually); and (B) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually). (ii) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually); (B) Pygmy or dwarf sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an...

50 CFR 218.2 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...: (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—10 (an average of 2 annually); and (B) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually). (ii) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually); (B) Pygmy or dwarf sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an...

50 CFR 218.2 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...: (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—10 (an average of 2 annually); and (B) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually). (ii) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually); (B) Pygmy or dwarf sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an...

Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation and Hydropower Potential: A Case of Upper Blue Nile Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdella, E. J.; Gosain, A. K.; Khosa, R.

2017-12-01

Due to the growing pressure in water resource and climate change there is great uncertainty in the availability of water for existing as well as proposed irrigation and hydropower projects in the Upper Blue Nile basin (longitude 34oE and 39oE and latitude 7oN and 12oN). This study quantitatively assessed the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the basin which intern affect water availability for different use including hydropower and irrigation. Ensemble of four bias corrected regional climate models (RCM) of CORDEX Africa domain and two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to determine climate projections for future (2021-2050) period. The outputs from the climate models used to drive the calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to simulate future runoff. The simulated discharge were used as input to a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) water allocation model to determine the implication in hydropower and irrigation potential of the basin. The WEAP model was setup to simulate three scenarios which includes Current, Medium-term (by 2025) and Long-term (by 2050) Development scenario. The projected mean annual temperature of the basin are warmer than the baseline (1982 - 2005) average in the range of 1 to 1.4oC. Projected mean annual precipitation varies across the basin in the range of - 3% to 7%, much of the expected increase is in the highland region of the basin. The water use simulation indicate that the current annual average irrigation water demand in the basin is 1.29Bm3y-1 with 100% coverage. By 2025 and 2050, with the development of new schemes and changing climate, water demand for irrigation is estimated to increase by 2.5 Bm3y-1 and 3.4 Bm3y-1 with 99 % and 96% coverage respectively. Simulation for domestic water demand coverage for all scenarios shows that there will be 100% coverage for the two major cities in the basin. The hydropower generation simulation indicate that 98% of hydroelectricity potential could be produced if all planed dams are constructed. The results in this study demonstrate the general idea of future water availability for different purpose in the basin, but uncertainties still exist in the projected future climate and simulated runoff. Optimal operation of existing and proposed reservoirs is also crucial in the context of climate change.

Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Predicting Annual Maximum and Annual Maximum Moving-Average Concentrations of Atrazine in Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Crawford, Charles G.

2008-01-01

Regression models were developed for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average concentrations of atrazine in streams using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology developed by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The current effort builds on the original WARP models, which were based on the annual mean and selected percentiles of the annual frequency distribution of atrazine concentrations. Estimates of annual maximum and annual maximum moving-average concentrations for selected durations are needed to characterize the levels of atrazine and other pesticides for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks for evaluation of potential concerns regarding human health or aquatic life. Separate regression models were derived for the annual maximum and annual maximum 21-day, 60-day, and 90-day moving-average concentrations. Development of the regression models used the same explanatory variables, transformations, model development data, model validation data, and regression methods as those used in the original development of WARP. The models accounted for 72 to 75 percent of the variability in the concentration statistics among the 112 sampling sites used for model development. Predicted concentration statistics from the four models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentration statistics for most of the model development and validation sites. Overall, performance of the models for the development and validation sites supports the application of the WARP models for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentration in streams and provides a framework to interpret the predictions in terms of uncertainty. For streams with inadequate direct measurements of atrazine concentrations, the WARP model predictions for the annual maximum and the annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentrations can be used to characterize the probable levels of atrazine for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks. Sites with a high probability of exceeding a benchmark for human health or aquatic life can be prioritized for monitoring.

Economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico.

PubMed

Undurraga, Eduardo A; Betancourt-Cravioto, Miguel; Ramos-Castañeda, José; Martínez-Vega, Ruth; Méndez-Galván, Jorge; Gubler, Duane J; Guzmán, María G; Halstead, Scott B; Harris, Eva; Kuri-Morales, Pablo; Tapia-Conyer, Roberto; Shepard, Donald S

2015-03-01

Dengue imposes a substantial economic and disease burden in most tropical and subtropical countries. Dengue incidence and severity have dramatically increased in Mexico during the past decades. Having objective and comparable estimates of the economic burden of dengue is essential to inform health policy, increase disease awareness, and assess the impact of dengue prevention and control technologies. We estimated the annual economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico for the years 2010-2011. We merged multiple data sources, including a prospective cohort study; patient interviews and macro-costing from major hospitals; surveillance, budget, and health data from the Ministry of Health; WHO cost estimates; and available literature. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to derive 95% certainty levels (CL) for our estimates. Results suggest that Mexico had about 139,000 (95%CL: 128,000-253,000) symptomatic and 119 (95%CL: 75-171) fatal dengue episodes annually on average (2010-2011), compared to an average of 30,941 symptomatic and 59 fatal dengue episodes reported. The annual cost, including surveillance and vector control, was US$170 (95%CL: 151-292) million, or $1.56 (95%CL: 1.38-2.68) per capita, comparable to other countries in the region. Of this, $87 (95%CL: 87-209) million or $0.80 per capita (95%CL: 0.62-1.12) corresponds to illness. Annual disease burden averaged 65 (95%CL: 36-99) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per million population. Inclusion of long-term sequelae, co-morbidities, impact on tourism, and health system disruption during outbreaks would further increase estimated economic and disease burden. With this study, Mexico joins Panama, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, and Thailand as the only countries or areas worldwide with comprehensive (illness and preventive) empirical estimates of dengue burden. Burden varies annually; during an outbreak, dengue burden may be significantly higher than that of the pre-vaccine level of rotavirus diarrhea. In sum, Mexico's potential economic benefits from dengue control would be substantial.

Estimation of average annual streamflows and power potentials for Alaska and Hawaii

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Verdin, Kristine L.

2004-05-01

This paper describes the work done to develop average annual streamflow estimates and power potential for the states of Alaska and Hawaii. The Elevation Derivatives for National Applications (EDNA) database was used, along with climatic datasets, to develop flow and power estimates for every stream reach in the EDNA database. Estimates of average annual streamflows were derived using state-specific regression equations, which were functions of average annual precipitation, precipitation intensity, drainage area, and other elevation-derived parameters. Power potential was calculated through the use of the average annual streamflow and the hydraulic head of each reach, which is calculated from themore » EDNA digital elevation model. In all, estimates of streamflow and power potential were calculated for over 170,000 stream segments in the Alaskan and Hawaiian datasets.« less

Flooding dynamics on the lower Amazon floodplain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudorff, C.; Melack, J. M.; Bates, P. D.

2013-05-01

We analyzed flooding dynamics of a large floodplain lake in the lower reach of the Amazon River for the period between 1995 through 2010. Floodplain inundation was simulated using the LISFLOOD-FP model, which combines one-dimensional river routing with two-dimensional overland flow, and a local hydrological model. Accurate representation of floodplain flows and inundation extent depends on the quality of the digital elevation model (DEM). We combined digital topography (derived from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) with extensive floodplain echo-sounding data to generate a hydraulically sound DEM. Analysis of daily water balances revealed that the dominant source of inflow alternated seasonally among direct rain and local runoff (October through January), Amazon River (March through August), and seepage (September). As inflows from the Amazon River increase during the rising limb of the hydrograph, regional floodwaters encounter the floodplain partially inundated from local hydrological inputs. At peak flow the floodplain routes, on average, 2.5% of the total discharge for this reach. The falling limb of the hydrograph coincides with the locally dry period, allowing seepage of water stored in sediments to become a dominant source. The average annual inflow from the Amazon River was 58.8 km3 (SD = 33.5), representing more than three thirds (80%) of inputs from all sources, with substantial inter-annual variability. The average annual net export of water from the floodplain to the Amazon River was 7.9 km3 (SD = 2.7).

Water resources management: Hydrologic characterization through hydrograph simulation may bias streamflow statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, W. H.; Kiang, J. E.

2017-12-01

The development, deployment and maintenance of water resources management infrastructure and practices rely on hydrologic characterization, which requires an understanding of local hydrology. With regards to streamflow, this understanding is typically quantified with statistics derived from long-term streamgage records. However, a fundamental problem is how to characterize local hydrology without the luxury of streamgage records, a problem that complicates water resources management at ungaged locations and for long-term future projections. This problem has typically been addressed through the development of point estimators, such as regression equations, to estimate particular statistics. Physically-based precipitation-runoff models, which are capable of producing simulated hydrographs, offer an alternative to point estimators. The advantage of simulated hydrographs is that they can be used to compute any number of streamflow statistics from a single source (the simulated hydrograph) rather than relying on a diverse set of point estimators. However, the use of simulated hydrographs introduces a degree of model uncertainty that is propagated through to estimated streamflow statistics and may have drastic effects on management decisions. We compare the accuracy and precision of streamflow statistics (e.g. the mean annual streamflow, the annual maximum streamflow exceeded in 10% of years, and the minimum seven-day average streamflow exceeded in 90% of years, among others) derived from point estimators (e.g. regressions, kriging, machine learning) to that of statistics derived from simulated hydrographs across the continental United States. Initial results suggest that the error introduced through hydrograph simulation may substantially bias the resulting hydrologic characterization.

39 CFR 3010.21 - Calculation of annual limitation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... notice of rate adjustment and dividing the sum by 12 (Recent Average). Then, a second simple average CPI... Recent Average and dividing the sum by 12 (Base Average). Finally, the annual limitation is calculated by dividing the Recent Average by the Base Average and subtracting 1 from the quotient. The result is...

39 CFR 3010.21 - Calculation of annual limitation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... notice of rate adjustment and dividing the sum by 12 (Recent Average). Then, a second simple average CPI... Recent Average and dividing the sum by 12 (Base Average). Finally, the annual limitation is calculated by dividing the Recent Average by the Base Average and subtracting 1 from the quotient. The result is...

39 CFR 3010.21 - Calculation of annual limitation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... notice of rate adjustment and dividing the sum by 12 (Recent Average). Then, a second simple average CPI... Recent Average and dividing the sum by 12 (Base Average). Finally, the annual limitation is calculated by dividing the Recent Average by the Base Average and subtracting 1 from the quotient. The result is...

Annual asymmetry in thermospheric density: Observations and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Jiuhou; Dou, Xiankang; Burns, Alan; Wang, Wenbin; Luan, Xiaoli; Zeng, Zhen; Xu, Jiyao

2013-05-01

In this paper, the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations during 2002-2010 are utilized to study the variation of the annual asymmetry in thermospheric density at 400 km under low solar activity condition (F10.7 = 80) based on the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). The derived asymmetry index (AI) in thermospheric density from the EOF analysis shows a strong latitudinal variation at night but varies a little with latitudes in daytime. Moreover, it exhibits a terdiurnal tidal signature at low to middle latitudes. The global mean value of the AI is 0.191, indicating that a 47% difference in thermosphere between the December and June solstices in the global average. In addition, the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model (TIEGCM) is used to explore the possible mechanisms responsible for the observed annual asymmetry in thermospheric density. It is found that the standard simulations give a lower AI and also a weaker day-to-night difference. The simulated AI shows a semidiurnal pattern in the equatorial and low-latitude regions in contrast with the terdiurnal tide signature seen in the observed AI. The daily mean AI obtained from the simulation is 0.125, corresponding to a 29% December-to-June difference in thermospheric density at 400 km. Further sensitivity simulations demonstrated that the effect of the varying Sun-Earth distance between the December and June solstices is the main process responsible for the annual asymmetry in thermospheric density, while the magnetic field configuration and tides from the lower atmosphere contribute to the temporal and spatial variations of the AI. Specifically, the simulations show that the Sun-Earth distance effect explains 93% of the difference in thermospheric density between December and June, which is mainly associated with the corresponding changes in neutral temperature. However, our calculation from the density observations reveals that the varying Sun-Earth distance effect only accounts for ~67% of the December-to-June difference in thermosphere density, indicating that the TIEGCM might significantly underestimate the forcing originating from the lower atmosphere.

The role of land surface fluxes in Saudi-KAU AGCM: Temperature climatology over the Arabian Peninsula for the period 1981-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaqur Rahman, M.; Almazroui, Mansour; Nazrul Islam, M.; O'Brien, Enda; Yousef, Ahmed Elsayed

2018-02-01

A new version of the Community Land Model (CLM) was introduced to the Saudi King Abdulaziz University Atmospheric Global Climate Model (Saudi-KAU AGCM) for better land surface component representation, and so to enhance climate simulation. CLM replaced the original land surface model (LSM) in Saudi-KAU AGCM, with the aim of simulating more accurate land surface fluxes globally, but especially over the Arabian Peninsula. To evaluate the performance of Saudi-KAU AGCM, simulations were completed with CLM and LSM for the period 1981-2010. In comparison with LSM, CLM generates surface air temperature values that are closer to National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The global annual averages of land surface air temperature are 9.51, 9.52, and 9.57 °C for NCEP, CLM, and LSM respectively, although the same atmospheric radiative and surface forcing from Saudi-KAU AGCM are provided to both LSM and CLM at every time step. The better temperature simulations when using CLM can be attributed to the more comprehensive plant functional type and hierarchical tile approach to the land cover type in CLM, along with better parameterization of upward land surface fluxes compared to LSM. At global scale, CLM exhibits smaller annual and seasonal mean biases of temperature with respect to NCEP data. Moreover, at regional scale, CLM demonstrates reasonable seasonal and annual mean temperature over the Arabian Peninsula as compared to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data. Finally, CLM generated better matches to single point-wise observations of surface air temperature and surface fluxes for some case studies.

A benefit-cost analysis of ten tree species in Modesto, California, U.S.A

Treesearch

E.G. McPherson

2003-01-01

Tree work records for ten species were analyzed to estimate average annual management costs by dbh class for six activity areas. Average annual benefits were calculated by dbh class for each species with computer modeling. Average annual net benefits per tree were greatest for London plane (Platanus acerifolia) ($178.57), hackberry (...

Reducing elective general surgery cancellations at a Canadian hospital

PubMed Central

Azari-Rad, Solmaz; Yontef, Alanna L.; Aleman, Dionne M.; Urbach, David R.

2013-01-01

Background In Canadian hospitals, which are typically financed by global annual budgets, overuse of operating rooms is a financial risk that is frequently managed by cancelling elective surgical procedures. It is uncertain how different scheduling rules affect the rate of elective surgery cancellations. Methods We used discrete event simulation modelling to represent perioperative processes at a hospital in Toronto, Canada. We tested the effects of the following 3 scenarios on the number of surgical cancellations: scheduling surgeons’ operating days based on their patients’ average length of stay in hospital, sequencing surgical procedures by average duration and variance, and increasing the number of post-surgical ward beds. Results The number of elective cancellations was reduced by scheduling surgeons whose patients had shorter average lengths of stay in hospital earlier in the week, sequencing shorter surgeries and those with less variance in duration earlier in the day, and by adding up to 2 additional beds to the postsurgical ward. Conclusion Discrete event simulation modelling can be used to develop strategies for improving efficiency in operating rooms. PMID:23351498

Lightning Forcing in Global Fire Models: The Importance of Temporal Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felsberg, A.; Kloster, S.; Wilkenskjeld, S.; Krause, A.; Lasslop, G.

2018-01-01

In global fire models, lightning is typically prescribed from observational data with monthly mean temporal resolution while meteorological forcings, such as precipitation or temperature, are prescribed in a daily resolution. In this study, we investigate the importance of the temporal resolution of the lightning forcing for the simulation of burned area by varying from daily to monthly and annual mean forcing. For this, we utilize the vegetation fire model JSBACH-SPITFIRE to simulate burned area, forced with meteorological and lightning data derived from the general circulation model ECHAM6. On a global scale, differences in burned area caused by lightning forcing applied in coarser temporal resolution stay below 0.55% compared to the use of daily mean forcing. Regionally, however, differences reach up to 100%, depending on the region and season. Monthly averaged lightning forcing as well as the monthly lightning climatology cause differences through an interaction between lightning ignitions and fire prone weather conditions, accounted for by the fire danger index. This interaction leads to decreased burned area in the boreal zone and increased burned area in the Tropics and Subtropics under the coarser temporal resolution. The exclusion of interannual variability, when forced with the lightning climatology, has only a minor impact on the simulated burned area. Annually averaged lightning forcing causes differences as a direct result of the eliminated seasonal characteristics of lightning. Burned area is decreased in summer and increased in winter where fuel is available. Regions with little seasonality, such as the Tropics and Subtropics, experience an increase in burned area.

Reservoir-development impacts on surface-water quantity and quality in the Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, D. Briane; Bauer, Daniel P.; Dale, Robert H.; Steele, Timothy Doak

1983-01-01

Development of coal resources and associated economy is accelerating in the Yampa River basin in northwestern Colorado and south-central Wyoming. Increased use of the water resources of the area will have a direct impact on their quantity and quality. As part of 18 surface-water projects, 35 reservoirs have been proposed with a combined total storage of 2.18 million acre-feet, 41% greater than the mean annual outflow from the basin. Three computer models were used to demonstrate methods of evaluating future impacts of reservoir development in the Yampa River basin. Four different reservoir configurations were used to simulate the effects of different degrees of proposed reservoir development. A multireservoir-flow model included both within-basin and transmountain diversions. Simulations indicated that in many cases diversion amounts would not be available for either type of diversion. A corresponding frequency analysis of reservoir storage levels indicated that most reservoirs would be operating with small percentages of total capacities and generally with less than 20% of conservation-pool volumes. Simulations using a dissolved-solids model indicated that extensive reservoir development could increase average annual concentrations at most locations. Simulations using a single-reservoir model indicated no significant occurrence of water-temperature stratification in most reservoirs due to limited reservoir storage. (USGS)

Regional warming of hot extremes accelerated by surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat, M.; Pitman, A.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-12-01

Strong regional differences exist in how hot temperature extremes increase under global warming. Using an ensemble of coupled climate models, we examine the regional warming rates of hot extremes relative to annual average warming rates in the same regions. We identify hotspots of accelerated warming of model-simulated hot extremes in Europe, North America, South America and Southeast China. These hotspots indicate where the warm tail of a distribution of temperatures increases faster than the average and are robust across most CMIP5 models. Exploring the conditions on the specific day the hot extreme occurs demonstrates the hotspots are explained by changes in the surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils. Furthermore, in these hotspot regions we find a relationship between the temperature - heat flux correlation under current climate conditions and the magnitude of future projected changes in hot extremes, pointing to a potential emergent constraint for simulations of future hot extremes. However, the model-simulated accelerated warming of hot extremes appears inconsistent with observations of the past 60 years, except over Europe. The simulated acceleration of hot extremes may therefore be unreliable, a result that necessitates a re-evaluation of how climate models resolve the relevant terrestrial processes.

Simulation of soil loss processes based on rainfall runoff and the time factor of governance in the Jialing River Watershed, China.

PubMed

Wu, Lei; Long, Tian-Yu; Liu, Xia; Mmereki, Daniel

2012-06-01

Jialing River is the largest tributary in the catchment area of Three Gorges Reservoir, and it is also one of the important areas of sediment yield in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. In recent years, significant changes of water and sediment characteristics have taken place. The "Long Control" Project implemented since 1989 had greatly changed the surface appearance of the Jialing River Watershed (JRW), and it had made the environments of the watershed sediment yield and sediment transport change significantly. In this research, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was selected and used to predict the annual average amount of soil erosion for the special water and sediment environments in the JRW after the implementation of the "Long Control" Project, and then the rainfall-runoff modulus and the time factor of governance were both considered as dynamic factors, the dynamic sediment transport model was built for soil erosion monitoring and forecasting based on the average sediment yield model. According to the dynamic model, the spatial and temporal distribution of soil erosion amount and sediment transport amount of the JRW from 1990 to 2007 was simulated using geographic information system (GIS) technology and space-grid algorithm. Simulation results showed that the average relative error of sediment transport was less than 10% except for the extreme hydrological year. The relationship between water and sediment from 1990 to 2007 showed that sediment interception effects of the soil and water conservation projects were obvious: the annual average sediment discharge reduced from 145.3 to 35 million tons, the decrement of sediment amount was about 111 million tons, and decreasing amplitude was 76%; the sediment concentration was also decreased from 2.01 to 0.578 kg/m(3). These data are of great significance for the prediction and estimation of the future changing trends of sediment storage in the Three Gorges Reservoir and the particulate non-point source pollution load carried by sediment transport from watershed surface.

Spatial and temporal variability of groundwater recharge in Geba basin, Northern Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yenehun, Alemu; Walraevens, Kristine; Batelaan, Okke

2017-10-01

WetSpa, a physically based, spatially distributed watershed model, has been used to study the spatial and temporal variation of recharge in the Geba basin, Northern Ethiopia. The model covers an area of about 4, 249 km2 and integrates elevation, soil and land-use data, hydrometeorological and river discharge data. The Geba basin has a highly variable topography ranging from 1000 to 3280 m with an average slope of 12.9%. The area is characterized by a distinct wet and long dry season with a mean annual precipitation of 681 mm and temperatures ranging between 6.5 °C and 32 °C. The model was simulated on daily basis for nearly four years (January 1, 2000 to December 18, 2003). It resulted in a good agreement between measured and simulated streamflow hydrographs with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of almost 70% and 85% for, respectively, the calibration and validation. The water balance terms show very strong spatial and temporal variability, about 3.8% of the total precipitation is intercepted by the plant canopy; 87.5% infiltrates into the soil (of which 13% percolates, 2.7% flows laterally off and 84.2% evapotranspired from the root zone), and 7.2% is surface runoff. The mean annual recharge varies from about 45 mm (2003) to 208 mm (2001), with average of 98.6 mm/yr. On monthly basis, August has the maximum (73 mm) and December the lowest (0.1 mm) recharge. The mean annual groundwater recharge spatially varies from 0 to 371 mm; mainly controlled by the distribution of rainfall amount, followed by soil and land-use, and to a certain extent, slope. About 21% of Geba has a recharge larger than 120 mm and 1% less than 5 mm.

Multimodel Uncertainty Changes in Simulated River Flows Induced by Human Impact Parameterizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong; Cui, Huijuan; Mu, Mengfei; Gerten Dieter; Gosling, Simon; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-01-01

Human impacts increasingly affect the global hydrological cycle and indeed dominate hydrological changes in some regions. Hydrologists have sought to identify the human-impact-induced hydrological variations via parameterizing anthropogenic water uses in global hydrological models (GHMs). The consequently increased model complexity is likely to introduce additional uncertainty among GHMs. Here, using four GHMs, between-model uncertainties are quantified in terms of the ratio of signal to noise (SNR) for average river flow during 1971-2000 simulated in two experiments, with representation of human impacts (VARSOC) and without (NOSOC). It is the first quantitative investigation of between-model uncertainty resulted from the inclusion of human impact parameterizations. Results show that the between-model uncertainties in terms of SNRs in the VARSOC annual flow are larger (about 2 for global and varied magnitude for different basins) than those in the NOSOC, which are particularly significant in most areas of Asia and northern areas to the Mediterranean Sea. The SNR differences are mostly negative (-20 to 5, indicating higher uncertainty) for basin-averaged annual flow. The VARSOC high flow shows slightly lower uncertainties than NOSOC simulations, with SNR differences mostly ranging from -20 to 20. The uncertainty differences between the two experiments are significantly related to the fraction of irrigation areas of basins. The large additional uncertainties in VARSOC simulations introduced by the inclusion of parameterizations of human impacts raise the urgent need of GHMs development regarding a better understanding of human impacts. Differences in the parameterizations of irrigation, reservoir regulation and water withdrawals are discussed towards potential directions of improvements for future GHM development. We also discuss the advantages of statistical approaches to reduce the between-model uncertainties, and the importance of calibration of GHMs for not only better performances of historical simulations but also more robust and confidential future projections of hydrological changes under a changing environment.

Winter Cover Crop Effects on Nitrate Leaching in Subsurface Drainage as Simulated by RZWQM-DSSAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malone, R. W.; Chu, X.; Ma, L.; Li, L.; Kaspar, T.; Jaynes, D.; Saseendran, S. A.; Thorp, K.; Yu, Q.

2007-12-01

Planting winter cover crops such as winter rye (Secale cereale L.) after corn and soybean harvest is one of the more promising practices to reduce nitrate loss to streams from tile drainage systems without negatively affecting production. Because availability of replicated tile-drained field data is limited and because use of cover crops to reduce nitrate loss has only been tested over a few years with limited environmental and management conditions, estimating the impacts of cover crops under the range of expected conditions is difficult. If properly tested against observed data, models can objectively estimate the relative effects of different weather conditions and agronomic practices (e.g., various N fertilizer application rates in conjunction with winter cover crops). In this study, an optimized winter wheat cover crop growth component was integrated into the calibrated RZWQM-DSSAT hybrid model and then we compare the observed and simulated effects of a winter cover crop on nitrate leaching losses in subsurface drainage water for a corn-soybean rotation with N fertilizer application rates over 225 kg N ha-1 in corn years. Annual observed and simulated flow-weighted average nitrate concentration (FWANC) in drainage from 2002 to 2005 for the cover crop treatments (CC) were 8.7 and 9.3 mg L-1 compared to 21.3 and 18.2 mg L-1 for no cover crop (CON). The resulting observed and simulated FWANC reductions due to CC were 59% and 49%. Simulations with the optimized model at various N fertilizer rates resulted in average annual drainage N loss differences between CC and CON to increase exponentially from 12 to 34 kg N ha-1 for rates of 11 to 261 kg N ha-1. The results suggest that RZWQM-DSSAT is a promising tool to estimate the relative effects of a winter crop under different conditions on nitrate loss in tile drains and that a winter cover crop can effectively reduce nitrate losses over a range of N fertilizer levels.

Meltwater flux and runoff modeling in the abalation area of jakobshavn Isbrae, West Greenland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mernild, Sebastian Haugard; Chylek, Petr; Liston, Glen

2009-01-01

The temporal variability in surface snow and glacier melt flux and runoff were investigated for the ablation area of lakobshavn Isbrae, West Greenland. High-resolution meteorological observations both on and outside the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) were used as model input. Realistic descriptions of snow accumulation, snow and glacier-ice melt, and runoff are essential to understand trends in ice sheet surface properties and processes. SnowModel, a physically based, spatially distributed meteorological and snow-evolution modeling system was used to simulate the temporal variability of lakobshavn Isbrre accumulation and ablation processes for 2000/01-2006/07. Winter snow-depth observations and MODIS satellite-derived summer melt observations weremore » used for model validation of accumulation and ablation. Simulations agreed well with observed values. Simulated annual surface melt varied from as low as 3.83 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2001/02) to as high as 8.64 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2004/05). Modeled surface melt occurred at elevations reaching 1,870 m a.s.l. for 2004/05, while the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) fluctuated from 990 to 1,210 m a.s.l. during the simulation period. The SnowModel meltwater retention and refreezing routines considerably reduce the amount of meltwater available as ice sheet runoff; without these routines the lakobshavn surface runoff would be overestimated by an average of 80%. From September/October through May/June no runoff events were simulated. The modeled interannual runoff variability varied from 1.81 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2001/02) to 5.21 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2004/05), yielding a cumulative runoff at the Jakobshavn glacier terminus of {approx}2.25 m w.eq. to {approx}4.5 m w.eq., respectively. The average modeled lakobshavn runoff of {approx}3.4 km{sup 3} y{sup -1} was merged with previous estimates of Jakobshavn ice discharge to quantify the freshwater flux to Illulissat Icefiord. For both runoff and ice discharge the average trends are similar, indicating increasing (insignificant) influx of freshwater to the Illulissat Icefiord for the period 2000/01-2006/07. This study suggests that surface runoff forms a minor part of the overall Jakobshavn freshwater flux to the fiord: around 7% ({approx}3.4 km{sup 3} y{sup -1}) of the average annual freshwater flux of {approx}51.0 km{sup 3} y{sup -1} originates from the surface runoff.« less

Radiation dose to the global flying population.

PubMed

Alvarez, Luis E; Eastham, Sebastian D; Barrett, Steven R H

2016-03-01

Civil airliner passengers and crew are exposed to elevated levels of radiation relative to being at sea level. Previous studies have assessed the radiation dose received in particular cases or for cohort studies. Here we present the first estimate of the total radiation dose received by the worldwide civilian flying population. We simulated flights globally from 2000 to 2013 using schedule data, applying a radiation propagation code to estimate the dose associated with each flight. Passengers flying in Europe and North America exceed the International Commission on Radiological Protection annual dose limits at an annual average of 510 or 420 flight hours per year, respectively. However, this falls to 160 or 120 h on specific routes under maximum exposure conditions.

40 CFR Table Jj-1 to Subpart Jj of... - Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report Emissions...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Emissions Under Subpart JJ 1 2 Animal group Average annual animal population (Head) 3 Beef 29,300 Dairy 3... groups except dairy, the average annual animal population represents the total number of animals present at the facility. For dairy facilities, the average annual animal population represents the number of...

40 CFR Table Jj-1 to Subpart Jj of... - Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report Emissions...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Emissions Under Subpart JJ 1,2 Animal group Average annual animal population (Head) 3 Beef 29,300 Dairy 3... groups except dairy, the average annual animal population represents the total number of animals present at the facility. For dairy facilities, the average annual animal population represents the number of...

50 CFR 218.112 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... average of 119274 annually). (ii) Pinnipeds: (A) Northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris)—1890 (an...) Short-beaked common dolphin—10 (an average of 2 annually); (vii) Northern elephant seal—10 (an average...

50 CFR 218.112 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... average of 119274 annually). (ii) Pinnipeds: (A) Northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris)—1890 (an...) Short-beaked common dolphin—10 (an average of 2 annually); (vii) Northern elephant seal—10 (an average...

50 CFR 218.112 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... average of 119274 annually). (ii) Pinnipeds: (A) Northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris)—1890 (an...) Short-beaked common dolphin—10 (an average of 2 annually); (vii) Northern elephant seal—10 (an average...

Comparing groundwater recharge and storage variability from GRACE satellite observations with observed water levels and recharge model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, D. M.; Henry, C.; Demon, H.; Kirste, D. M.; Huang, J.

2011-12-01

Sustainable management of groundwater resources, particularly in water stressed regions, requires estimates of groundwater recharge. This study in southern Mali, Africa compares approaches for estimating groundwater recharge and understanding recharge processes using a variety of methods encompassing groundwater level-climate data analysis, GRACE satellite data analysis, and recharge modelling for current and future climate conditions. Time series data for GRACE (2002-2006) and observed groundwater level data (1982-2001) do not overlap. To overcome this problem, GRACE time series data were appended to the observed historical time series data, and the records compared. Terrestrial water storage anomalies from GRACE were corrected for soil moisture (SM) using the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) to obtain monthly groundwater storage anomalies (GRACE-SM), and monthly recharge estimates. Historical groundwater storage anomalies and recharge were determined using the water table fluctuation method using observation data from 15 wells. Historical annual recharge averaged 145.0 mm (or 15.9% of annual rainfall) and compared favourably with the GRACE-SM estimate of 149.7 mm (or 14.8% of annual rainfall). Both records show lows and peaks in May and September, respectively; however, the peak for the GRACE-SM data is shifted later in the year to November, suggesting that the GLDAS may poorly predict the timing of soil water storage in this region. Recharge simulation results show good agreement between the timing and magnitude of the mean monthly simulated recharge and the regional mean monthly storage anomaly hydrograph generated from all monitoring wells. Under future climate conditions, annual recharge is projected to decrease by 8% for areas with luvisols and by 11% for areas with nitosols. Given this potential reduction in groundwater recharge, there may be added stress placed on an already stressed resource.

Integrated ray tracing simulation of annual variation of spectral bio-signatures from cloud free 3D optical Earth model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, Dongok; Kim, Sug-Whan; Kim, Dae Wook; Lee, Jae-Min; Lee, Hanshin; Park, Won Hyun; Seong, Sehyun; Ham, Sun-Jeong

2010-09-01

Understanding the Earth spectral bio-signatures provides an important reference datum for accurate de-convolution of collapsed spectral signals from potential earth-like planets of other star systems. This study presents a new ray tracing computation method including an improved 3D optical earth model constructed with the coastal line and vegetation distribution data from the Global Ecological Zone (GEZ) map. Using non-Lambertian bidirectional scattering distribution function (BSDF) models, the input earth surface model is characterized with three different scattering properties and their annual variations depending on monthly changes in vegetation distribution, sea ice coverage and illumination angle. The input atmosphere model consists of one layer with Rayleigh scattering model from the sea level to 100 km in altitude and its radiative transfer characteristics is computed for four seasons using the SMART codes. The ocean scattering model is a combination of sun-glint scattering and Lambertian scattering models. The land surface scattering is defined with the semi empirical parametric kernel method used for MODIS and POLDER missions. These three component models were integrated into the final Earth model that was then incorporated into the in-house built integrated ray tracing (IRT) model capable of computing both spectral imaging and radiative transfer performance of a hypothetical space instrument as it observes the Earth from its designated orbit. The IRT model simulation inputs include variation in earth orientation, illuminated phases, and seasonal sea ice and vegetation distribution. The trial simulation runs result in the annual variations in phase dependent disk averaged spectra (DAS) and its associated bio-signatures such as NDVI. The full computational details are presented together with the resulting annual variation in DAS and its associated bio-signatures.

[Simulation of effect of irrigation with reclaimed water on soil water-salt movement by ENVIRO-GRO model].

PubMed

Lü, Si-Dan; Chen, Wei-Ping; Wang, Mei-E

2012-12-01

As the conflict between water supply and demand, wastewater reuse has become an important measure, which can relieve the water shortage in Beijing. In order to promote safe irrigation with reclaimed water and prevent soil salinisation, the dynamic transport of salts in urban soils of Beijing, a city of water shortage, under irrigation of reclaimed water was simulated by ENVIRO-GRO model in this research. The accumulation trends of soil salinity were predicted. Simultaneously, it investigated the effects of different irrigation practices on soil water-salt movement and salt accumulation. Results indicated that annual averages of soil salinity (EC(e)) increased 29.5%, 97.2%, 197.8% respectively, with the higher irrigation, normal irrigation, and low irrigation under equilibrium conditions. Irrigation frequency had little effect on soil salt-water movement, and soil salt accumulation was in a downward trend with low frequency of irrigation. Under equilibrium conditions, annual averages of EC(e) increased 23.7%, 97.2%, 208.5% respectively, with irrigation water salinity (EC(w)) 0.6, 1.2, 2.4 dS x m(-1). Soil salinity increased slightly with EC(w) = 0.6 dS x m(-1), while soil salinization did not appear. Totally, the growth of Blue grass was not influenced by soil salinity under equilibrium conditions with the regular irrigation in Beijing, but mild soil salinization appeared.

Simulation of ground-water flow near the nuclear-fuel reprocessing facility at the Western New York Nuclear Service Center, Cattaraugus County, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yager, R.M.

1987-01-01

A two-dimensional finite-difference model was developed to simulate groundwater flow in a surficial sand and gravel deposit underlying the nuclear fuel reprocessing facility at Western New York Nuclear Service Center near West Valley, N.Y. The sand and gravel deposit overlies a till plateau that abuts an upland area of siltstone and shale on its west side, and is bounded on the other three sides by deeply incised stream channels that drain to Buttermilk Creek, a tributary to Cattaraugus Creek. Radioactive materials are stored within the reprocessing plant and are also buried within a till deposit at the facility. Tritiated water is stored in a lagoon system near the plant and released under permit to Franks Creek, a tributary to Buttermilk Creek. Groundwater levels predicted by steady-state simulations closely matched those measured in 23 observation wells, with an average error of 0.5 meter. Simulated groundwater discharges to two stream channels and a subsurface drain were within 5% of recorded values. Steady-state simulations used an average annual recharge rate of 46 cm/yr; predicted evapotranspiration loss from the ground was 20 cm/yr. The lateral range in hydraulic conductivity obtained through model calibration was 0.6 to 10 m/day. Model simulations indicated that 33% of the groundwater discharged from the sand and gravel unit (2.6 L/sec) is lost by evapotranspiration, 3% (3.0 L/sec) flows to seepage faces at the periphery of the plateau, 20% (1.6 L/sec) discharges to stream channels that drain a large wetland area near the center of the plateau, and the remaining 8% (0.6 L/sec) discharges to a subsurface french drain and to a wastewater treatment system. Groundwater levels computed by a transient-state simulation of an annual climatic cycle, including seasonal variation in recharge and evapotranspiration, closely matched water levels measured in eight observation wells. The model predicted that the subsurface drain and the stream channel that drains the wetland would intercept most of the recharge originating near the reprocessing plant. (Lantz-PTT)

Earth radiation budget measurements from satellites and their interpretation for climate modeling and studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vonderhaar, T. H.; Stephens, G. L.; Campbell, G. G.

1980-01-01

The annual and seasonal averaged Earth atmosphere radiation budgets derived from the most complete set of satellite observations available are presented. The budgets were derived from a composite of 48 monthly mean radiation budget maps. Annually and seasonally averaged radiation budgets are presented as global averages and zonal averages. The geographic distribution of the various radiation budget quantities is described. The annual cycle of the radiation budget was analyzed and the annual variability of net flux was shown to be largely dominated by the regular semi and annual cycles forced by external Earth-Sun geometry variations. Radiative transfer calculations were compared to the observed budget quantities and surface budgets were additionally computed with particular emphasis on discrepancies that exist between the present computations and previous surface budget estimates.

Forecasting fish biomasses, densities, productions, and bioaccumulation potentials of mid-atlantic wadeable streams.

PubMed

Barber, M Craig; Rashleigh, Brenda; Cyterski, Michael J

2016-01-01

Regional fishery conditions of Mid-Atlantic wadeable streams in the eastern United States are estimated using the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) bioaccumulation and fish community model and data collected by the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). Average annual biomasses and population densities and annual productions are estimated for 352 randomly selected streams. Realized bioaccumulation factors (BAF) and biomagnification factors (BMF), which are dependent on these forecasted biomasses, population densities, and productions, are also estimated by assuming constant water exposures to methylmercury and tetra-, penta-, hexa-, and hepta-chlorinated biphenyls. Using observed biomasses, observed densities, and estimated annual productions of total fish from 3 regions assumed to support healthy fisheries as benchmarks (eastern Tennessee and Catskill Mountain trout streams and Ozark Mountains smallmouth bass streams), 58% of the region's wadeable streams are estimated to be in marginal or poor condition (i.e., not healthy). Using simulated BAFs and EMAP Hg fish concentrations, we also estimate that approximately 24% of the game fish and subsistence fishing species that are found in streams having detectable Hg concentrations would exceed an acceptable human consumption criterion of 0.185 μg/g wet wt. Importantly, such streams have been estimated to represent 78.2% to 84.4% of the Mid-Atlantic's wadeable stream lengths. Our results demonstrate how a dynamic simulation model can support regional assessment and trends analysis for fisheries. © 2015 SETAC.

40 CFR 61.356 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration, and annual benzene quantity. (2) For each waste... measurements, calculations, and other documentation used to determine that the continuous flow of process... benzene concentrations in the waste, the annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration of the waste...

40 CFR 61.356 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration, and annual benzene quantity. (2) For each waste... measurements, calculations, and other documentation used to determine that the continuous flow of process... benzene concentrations in the waste, the annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration of the waste...

40 CFR 61.356 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration, and annual benzene quantity. (2) For each waste... measurements, calculations, and other documentation used to determine that the continuous flow of process... benzene concentrations in the waste, the annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration of the waste...

Comparisons between consumption estimates from bioenergetics simulations and field measurements for walleyes from Oneida Lake, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lantry, B.F.; Rudstam, L. G.; Forney, J.L.; VanDeValk, A.J.; Mills, E.L.; Stewart, D.J.; Adams, J.V.

2008-01-01

Daily consumption was estimated from the stomach contents of walleyes Sander vitreus collected weekly from Oneida Lake, New York, during June-October 1975, 1992, 1993, and 1994 for one to four age-groups per year. Field rations were highly variable between weeks, and trends in ration size varied both seasonally and annually. The coefficient of variation for weekly field rations within years and ages ranged from 45% to 97%. Field estimates were compared with simulated consumption from a bioenergetics model. The simulation averages of daily ration deviated from those of the field estimates by -20.1% to +70.3%, with a mean across all simulations of +14.3%. The deviations for each time step were much greater than those for the simulation averages, ranging from -92.8% to +363.6%. A systematic trend in the deviations was observed, the model producing overpredictions at rations less than 3.7% of body weight. Analysis of variance indicated that the deviations were affected by sample year and week but not age. Multiple linear regression using backwards selection procedures and Akaike's information criterion indicated that walleye weight, walleye growth, lake temperature, prey energy density, and the proportion of gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum in the diet significantly affected the deviations between simulated and field rations and explained 32% of the variance. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Year-to-year variations in annual average indoor 222Rn concentrations.

PubMed

Martz, D E; Rood, A S; George, J L; Pearson, M D; Langner, G H

1991-09-01

Annual average indoor 222Rn concentrations in 40 residences in and around Grand Junction, CO, have been measured repeatedly since 1984 using commercial alpha-track monitors (ATM) deployed for successive 12-mo time periods. Data obtained provide a quantitative measure of the year-to-year variations in the annual average Rn concentrations in these structures over this 6-y period. A mean coefficient of variation of 25% was observed for the year-to-year variability of the measurements at 25 sampling stations for which complete data were available. Individual coefficients of variation at the various stations ranged from a low of 7.7% to a high of 51%. The observed mean coefficient of variation includes contributions due to the variability in detector response as well as the true year-to-year variation in the annual average Rn concentrations. Factoring out the contributions from the measured variability in the response of the detectors used, the actual year-to-year variability of the annual average Rn concentrations was approximately 22%.

20 CFR 30.811 - How will OWCP calculate the duration and extent of a covered Part E employee's initial period of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... exceed 50 percent of his or her average annual wage, OWCP will pay the employee $15,000 as compensation... did not exceed 75 percent of such average annual wage, OWCP will pay the employee $10,000 as... EEOICPA Determinations of Average Annual Wage and Percentages of Loss § 30.811 How will OWCP calculate the...

20 CFR 30.811 - How will OWCP calculate the duration and extent of a covered Part E employee's initial period of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... exceed 50 percent of his or her average annual wage, OWCP will pay the employee $15,000 as compensation... did not exceed 75 percent of such average annual wage, OWCP will pay the employee $10,000 as... EEOICPA Determinations of Average Annual Wage and Percentages of Loss § 30.811 How will OWCP calculate the...

Evaluating and improving count-based population inference: A case study from 31 years of monitoring Sandhill Cranes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

2017-01-01

Monitoring animal populations can be difficult. Limited resources often force monitoring programs to rely on unadjusted or smoothed counts as an index of abundance. Smoothing counts is commonly done using a moving-average estimator to dampen sampling variation. These indices are commonly used to inform management decisions, although their reliability is often unknown. We outline a process to evaluate the biological plausibility of annual changes in population counts and indices from a typical monitoring scenario and compare results with a hierarchical Bayesian time series (HBTS) model. We evaluated spring and fall counts, fall indices, and model-based predictions for the Rocky Mountain population (RMP) of Sandhill Cranes (Antigone canadensis) by integrating juvenile recruitment, harvest, and survival into a stochastic stage-based population model. We used simulation to evaluate population indices from the HBTS model and the commonly used 3-yr moving average estimator. We found counts of the RMP to exhibit biologically unrealistic annual change, while the fall population index was largely biologically realistic. HBTS model predictions suggested that the RMP changed little over 31 yr of monitoring, but the pattern depended on assumptions about the observational process. The HBTS model fall population predictions were biologically plausible if observed crane harvest mortality was compensatory up to natural mortality, as empirical evidence suggests. Simulations indicated that the predicted mean of the HBTS model was generally a more reliable estimate of the true population than population indices derived using a moving 3-yr average estimator. Practitioners could gain considerable advantages from modeling population counts using a hierarchical Bayesian autoregressive approach. Advantages would include: (1) obtaining measures of uncertainty; (2) incorporating direct knowledge of the observational and population processes; (3) accommodating missing years of data; and (4) forecasting population size.

Mediterranean Overflow Water (MOW) Simulation Using a Coupled Multiple-Grid Mediterranean Sea/North Atlantic Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-07-22

close to GDEM climatology but also quite similar to the upper level flow shown in Figure 5b of Johnson et al. [2002], although they used higher...will make comparisons with climatology ( GDEM and lorga and Lozier [1999]) and other model results [Drillet et al, 2005]. [41] Figure 9 compares the...annual averaged model salin- ity (a) with the U. S. Navy’s Generalized Digital Environ- mental Model ( GDEM ) 1/4° resolution climatology (b). The

Fluvial response to climate variations and anthropogenic perturbations for the Ebro River, Spain in the last 4,000 years.

PubMed

Xing, Fei; Kettner, Albert J; Ashton, Andrew; Giosan, Liviu; Ibáñez, Carles; Kaplan, Jed O

2014-03-01

Fluvial sediment discharge can vary in response to climate changes and human activities, which in return influences human settlements and ecosystems through coastline progradation and retreat. To understand the mechanisms controlling the variations of fluvial water and sediment discharge for the Ebro drainage basin, Spain, we apply a hydrological model HydroTrend. Comparison of model results with a 47-year observational record (AD 1953-1999) suggests that the model adequately captures annual average water discharge (simulated 408 m(3)s(-1) versus observed 425 m(3)s(-1)) and sediment load (simulated 0.3 Mt yr(-1) versus observed 0.28 ± 0.04 Mt yr(-1)) for the Ebro basin. A long-term (4000-year) simulation, driven by paleoclimate and anthropogenic land cover change scenarios, indicates that water discharge is controlled by the changes in precipitation, which has a high annual variability but no long-term trend. Modeled suspended sediment load, however, has an increasing trend over time, which is closely related to anthropogenic land cover variations with no significant correlation to climatic changes. The simulation suggests that 4,000 years ago the annual sediment load to the ocean was 30.5 Mt yr(-1), which increased over time to 47.2 Mt yr(-1) (AD 1860-1960). In the second half of the 20th century, the emplacement of large dams resulted in a dramatic decrease in suspended sediment discharge, eventually reducing the flux to the ocean by more than 99% (mean value changes from 38.1 Mt yr(-1) to 0.3 Mt yr(-1)). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Runoff generation from neighboring headwater basins with differing glacier coverage using the distributed hydrological model WaSiM, Eklutna, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostman, J. S.; Loso, M.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Gaedeke, A.; Geck, J. E.

2017-12-01

Many Alaska glaciers are thinning and retreating, and glacier wastage is projected to affect runoff processes from glacierized basins. Accordingly, effective resource management in glacierized watersheds requires quantification of a glacier's role on streamflow generation. The Eklutna catchment (311 km2) supplies water and electricity for Anchorage, Alaska (pop. 300,000) via Eklutna Lake. The Eklutna headwaters include the West Fork (64 km2, 46% glacier), and the East Fork (101 km2, 12% glacier). Total average annual discharge (2009-2015) is similar from the West (42,100 m3) and East (42,200 m3) forks, while specific annual runoff from the West Fork (2940 mm) exceeds that of the East Fork (1500 mm). To better understand what controls runoff, we are simulating the Eklutna annual water budget using a distributed watershed-level hydrological model. We force the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) using continuous air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, shortwave incoming radiation, and relative humidity primarily measured in the West Fork basin. We use Eklutna Glacier snow accumulation and ablation to calibrate the snowmelt and glacier sub-modules. Melt season discharge from the West and East forks is used for runoff comparison. Preliminary results show 2013-2015 simulated glacier point balances (accumulation and melt) are within 15% of glacier stake observations. Runoff was effectively modeled in the West Fork (NSE=0.80), while being over-predicted in the East Fork , which we attribute to a lack of forcing data in the less-glacierized basin. The simulations suggest that 78% of West Fork total runoff is from glacier melt, compared with <40% in the East Fork where glacier runoff contribution is higher during low-snow years.

Modeling the spatial-temporal dynamics of net primary production in Yangtze River Basin using IBIS model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Z.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Zhu, Q.; Wei, X.; Jiang, Z.; Zhou, G.; Zhang, X.; Han, J.

2011-01-01

The climate change has significantly affected the carbon cycling in Yangtze River Basin. To better understand the alternation pattern for the relationship between carbon cycling and climate change, the net primary production (NPP) were simulated in the study area from 1956 to 2006 by using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). The results showed that the average annual NPP per square meter was about 0.518 kg C in Yangtze River Basin. The high NPP levels were mainly distributed in the southeast area of Sichuan, and the highest value reached 1.05 kg C/m2. The NPP increased based on the simulated temporal trends. The spatiotemporal variability of the NPP in the vegetation types was obvious, and it was depended on the climate and soil condition. We found the drought climate was one of critical factor that impacts the alterations of the NPP in the area by the simulation. ?? 2011 IEEE.

LES, DNS and RANS for the analysis of high-speed turbulent reacting flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Givi, Peyman

1994-01-01

The objective of this research is to continue our efforts in advancing the state of knowledge in Large Eddy Simulation (LES), Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS), and Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) methods for the analysis of high-speed reacting turbulent flows. In the first phase of this research, conducted within the past six months, focus was in three directions: RANS of turbulent reacting flows by Probability Density Function (PDF) methods, RANS of non-reacting turbulent flows by advanced turbulence closures, and LES of mixing dominated reacting flows by a dynamics subgrid closure. A summary of our efforts within the past six months of this research is provided in this semi-annual progress report.

Bet hedging via seed banking in desert evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae): demographic evidence from natural populations.

PubMed

Evans, Margaret E K; Ferrière, Régis; Kane, Michael J; Venable, D Lawrence

2007-02-01

Bet hedging is one solution to the problem of an unpredictably variable environment: fitness in the average environment is sacrificed in favor of lower variation in fitness if this leads to higher long-run stochastic mean fitness. While bet hedging is an important concept in evolutionary ecology, empirical evidence that it occurs is scant. Here we evaluate whether bet hedging occurs via seed banking in natural populations of two species of desert evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae), one annual and one perennial. Four years of data on plants and 3 years of data on seeds yielded two transitions for the entire life cycle. One year was exceptionally dry, leading to reproductive failure in the sample areas, and the other was above average in precipitation, leading to reproductive success in four of five populations. Stochastic simulations of population growth revealed patterns indicative of bet hedging via seed banking, particularly in the annual populations: variance in fitness and fitness in the average environment were lower with seed banking than without, whereas long-run stochastic mean fitness was higher with seed banking than without across a wide range of probabilities of the wet year. This represents a novel, unusually rigorous demonstration of bet hedging from field data.

Alternatives to the Moving Average

Treesearch

Paul C. van Deusen

2001-01-01

There are many possible estimators that could be used with annual inventory data. The 5-year moving average has been selected as a default estimator to provide initial results for states having available annual inventory data. User objectives for these estimates are discussed. The characteristics of a moving average are outlined. It is shown that moving average...

75 FR 41556 - Proposed Collection Renewal; Correction

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-16

... global education in the classroom. Estimated annual number of respondents: 300. Estimated average time to... the annual World Wise Schools Conference. The information is used as a record of attendance. 2. Title... global education in the classroom. Estimated annual number of responses: 300. Estimated average time to...

Criterion 6, indicator 37 : average wage rates, annual average income, and annual injury rates in major forest employment categories

Treesearch

Kenneth Skog; Susan J. Alexander; John Bergstrom; Ken Cordell; Elizabeth Hill; James Howard; Rebecca Westby

2011-01-01

Average annual incomes for forest management and protection includes salaries for full-time permanent employees of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, which have increased from a median of $41,300 in 1992 to $48,200 in 2000, to $50,500 in 2006 (all in 2005$). Salary of full-time permanent employees in state forestry agencies in 1998, for entry level...

Estimating catchment-scale groundwater dynamics from recession analysis - enhanced constraining of hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Mengistu, Zelalem

2016-12-01

In this study, we propose a new formulation of subsurface water storage dynamics for use in rainfall-runoff models. Under the assumption of a strong relationship between storage and runoff, the temporal distribution of catchment-scale storage is considered to have the same shape as the distribution of observed recessions (measured as the difference between the log of runoff values). The mean subsurface storage is estimated as the storage at steady state, where moisture input equals the mean annual runoff. An important contribution of the new formulation is that its parameters are derived directly from observed recession data and the mean annual runoff. The parameters are hence estimated prior to model calibration against runoff. The new storage routine is implemented in the parameter parsimonious distance distribution dynamics (DDD) model and has been tested for 73 catchments in Norway of varying size, mean elevation and landscape type. Runoff simulations for the 73 catchments from two model structures (DDD with calibrated subsurface storage and DDD with the new estimated subsurface storage) were compared. Little loss in precision of runoff simulations was found using the new estimated storage routine. For the 73 catchments, an average of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion of 0.73 was obtained using the new estimated storage routine compared with 0.75 using calibrated storage routine. The average Kling-Gupta efficiency criterion was 0.80 and 0.81 for the new and old storage routine, respectively. Runoff recessions are more realistically modelled using the new approach since the root mean square error between the mean of observed and simulated recession characteristics was reduced by almost 50 % using the new storage routine. The parameters of the proposed storage routine are found to be significantly correlated to catchment characteristics, which is potentially useful for predictions in ungauged basins.

A Simulation of Biological Prosesses in the Equatorial Pacific Warm Pool at 165 deg E

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClain, Charles R.; Murtugudde, Ragu; Signorini, Sergio

1998-01-01

A nine-year simulation (1984-1992) of biological processes in the equatorial Pacific Warm Pool is presented. A modified version of the 4-component (phytoplankton, zooplankton, nitrate and ammonium) ecosystem model by McClain et al. (1996) is used. Modifications include use of a spectral model for computation of PAR and inclusion of fecal pellet remineralization and ammonium nitrification. The physical parameters (horizontal and vertical velocities and temperature) required by the ecosystem model were derived from an improved version of the Gent and Cane (1990) ocean general circulation model (Murtugudde and Busalacchi, 1997). Surface downwelling spectral irradiance was estimated using the clear-sky models of Frouin et al. (1989) and Gregg and Carder (1990) and cloud cover information from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). The simulations indicate considerable variability on interannual time scales in all four ecosystem components. In particular, surface chlorophyll concentrations varied by an order of magnitude with maximum values exceeding 0.30 mg/cu m in 1988, 1989, and 1990, and pronounced minimums during 1987 and 1992. The deep chlorophyll maximum ranged between 75 and 125 meters with values occasionally exceeding 0.40 mg/cu m. With the exception of the last half of 1988, surface nitrate was always near depletion. Ammonium exhibited a subsurface maximum just below the DCM with concentrations as high as 0.5 mg-atN/cu m . Total integrated annual primary production varied between 40 and 250 gC/sq m/yr with an annual average of 140 gC/sq m/yr. Finally, the model is used to estimate the mean irradiance at the base of the mixed layer, i.e., the penetration irradiance, which was 18 Watts/sq m over the nine year period. The average mixed layer depth was 42 m.

50 CFR 218.31 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...); (x) Melon-headed whales (Peponocephala electra)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) False killer... annually); (xiv) Pygmy killer whale (Ferresa attenuatta)—50 (an average of 10 annually); (xv) Rough-toothed... method of take and the indicated number of times: (1) Level B Harassment: (i) Sperm whale (Physeter...

50 CFR 218.31 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...); (x) Melon-headed whales (Peponocephala electra)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) False killer... annually); (xiv) Pygmy killer whale (Ferresa attenuatta)—50 (an average of 10 annually); (xv) Rough-toothed... method of take and the indicated number of times: (1) Level B Harassment: (i) Sperm whale (Physeter...

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 km and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemblemore » during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late 21st century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late 21st century.« less

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble duringmore » the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.« less

Runoff simulations from the Greenland ice sheet at Kangerlussuaq from 2006-2007 to 2007/08. West Greenland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mernild, Sebastian Haugard; Hasholt, Bent; Van Den Broeke, Michiel

2009-01-01

This study focuses on runoff from a large sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) - the Kangerlussuaq drainage area, West Greenland - for the runoff observation period 2006/07 to 2007/08. SnowModel, a state-of-the-art snow-evolution modeling system, was used to simulate winter accumulation and summer ablation processes, including runoff. Independent in situ end-of-winter snow depth and high-resolution runoff observations were used for validation of simulated accumulation and ablation processes. Runoff was modeled on both daily and hourly time steps, filling a data gap of runoff exiting part of the GrIS. Using hourly meteorological driving data instead of smoothed daily-averaged datamore » produced more realistic meteorological conditions in relation to snow and melt threshold surface processes, and produced 6-17% higher annual cumulative runoff. The simulated runoff series yielded useful insights into the present conditions of inter-seasonal and inter-annual variability of Kangerlussuaq runoff, and provided an acceptable degree of agreement between simulated and observed runoff. The simulated spatial runoff distributions, in some areas of the GrIS terminus, were as high as 2,750 mm w.eq. of runoff for 2006/07, while only 900 mm w.eq was simulated for 2007/08. The simulated total runoff from Kangerlussuaq was 1.9 km{sup 3} for 2006/07 and 1.2 km{sup 3} for 2007/08, indicating a reduction of 35-40% caused by the climate conditions and changes in the GrIS freshwater storage. The reduction in runoff from 2006/07 to 2007/08 occurred simultaneously with the reduction in the overall pattern of satellite-derived GrIS surface melt from 2007 to 2008.« less

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

2018-06-01

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

2017-09-01

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

Streamflow Impacts of Biofuel Policy-Driven Landscape Change

PubMed Central

Khanal, Sami; Anex, Robert P.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Herzmann, Daryl E.

2014-01-01

Likely changes in precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) resulting from policy-driven expansion of bioenergy crops in the United States are shown to create significant changes in streamflow volumes and increase water stress in the High Plains. Regional climate simulations for current and biofuel cropping system scenarios are evaluated using the same atmospheric forcing data over the period 1979–2004 using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model coupled to the NOAH land surface model. PET is projected to increase under the biofuel crop production scenario. The magnitude of the mean annual increase in PET is larger than the inter-annual variability of change in PET, indicating that PET increase is a forced response to the biofuel cropping system land use. Across the conterminous U.S., the change in mean streamflow volume under the biofuel scenario is estimated to range from negative 56% to positive 20% relative to a business-as-usual baseline scenario. In Kansas and Oklahoma, annual streamflow volume is reduced by an average of 20%, and this reduction in streamflow volume is due primarily to increased PET. Predicted increase in mean annual P under the biofuel crop production scenario is lower than its inter-annual variability, indicating that additional simulations would be necessary to determine conclusively whether predicted change in P is a response to biofuel crop production. Although estimated changes in streamflow volume include the influence of P change, sensitivity results show that PET change is the significantly dominant factor causing streamflow change. Higher PET and lower streamflow due to biofuel feedstock production are likely to increase water stress in the High Plains. When pursuing sustainable biofuels policy, decision-makers should consider the impacts of feedstock production on water scarcity. PMID:25289698

Assessing the effects of adaptation measures on optimal water resources allocation under varied water availability conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dedi; Guo, Shenglian; Shao, Quanxi; Liu, Pan; Xiong, Lihua; Wang, Le; Hong, Xingjun; Xu, Yao; Wang, Zhaoli

2018-01-01

Human activities and climate change have altered the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability which is a principal prerequisite for allocation of different water resources. In order to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on water availability and optimal allocation of water resources, hydrological models and optimal water resource allocation models should be integrated. Given that increasing human water demand and varying water availability conditions necessitate adaptation measures, we propose a framework to assess the effects of these measures on optimal allocation of water resources. The proposed model and framework were applied to a case study of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin in China. Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) were employed to project future climate, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was used to simulate the variability of flows under historical (1956-2011) and future (2012-2099) conditions. The water availability determined by simulating flow with the VIC hydrological model was used to establish the optimal water resources allocation model. The allocation results were derived under an extremely dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 95%), a very dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 90%), a dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 75%), and a normal year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 50%) during historical and future periods. The results show that the total available water resources in the study area and the inflow of the Danjiangkou Reservoir will increase in the future. However, the uneven distribution of water availability will cause water shortage problems, especially in the boundary areas. The effects of adaptation measures, including water saving, and dynamic control of flood limiting water levels (FLWLs) for reservoir operation, were assessed and implemented to alleviate water shortages. The negative impacts from the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (Middle Route) in the mid-lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin can be avoided through the dynamic control of FLWLs in Danjiangkou Reservoir, under the historical and future RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. However, the effects of adaptation measures are limited due to their own constraints, such as the characteristics of the reservoirs influencing the FLWLs. The utilization of storm water appears necessary to meet future water demand. Overall, the results indicate that the framework for assessing the effects of adaptation measures on water resources allocation might aid water resources management, not only in the study area but also in other places where water availability conditions vary due to climate change and human activities.

7 CFR 760.1304 - Eligibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... in an eligible dairy operation must meet the average adjusted gross income eligibility requirements... benefit under this subpart if their annual average adjusted nonfarm income is over $500,000 as determined... Corporation A. For DELAP, the relevant period for the annual average adjusted nonfarm income is 2005 through...

7 CFR 760.1304 - Eligibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... in an eligible dairy operation must meet the average adjusted gross income eligibility requirements... benefit under this subpart if their annual average adjusted nonfarm income is over $500,000 as determined... Corporation A. For DELAP, the relevant period for the annual average adjusted nonfarm income is 2005 through...

Cumulative Expenditures under the DI, SSI, Medicare, and Medicaid Programs for a Cohort of Disabled Working-Age Adults

PubMed Central

Riley, Gerald F; Rupp, Kalman

2015-01-01

Objective To estimate cumulative DI, SSI, Medicare, and Medicaid expenditures from initial disability benefit award to death or age 65. Data Sources Administrative records for a cohort of new CY2000 DI and SSI awardees aged 18–64. Study Design Actual expenditures were obtained for 2000–2006/7. Subsequent expenditures were simulated using a regression-adjusted Markov process to assign individuals to annual disability benefit coverage states. Program expenditures were simulated conditional on assigned benefit coverage status. Estimates reflect present value of expenditures at initial award in 2000 and are expressed in constant 2012 dollars. Expenditure estimates were also updated to reflect benefit levels and characteristics of new awardees in 2012. Data Collection We matched records for a 10 percent nationally representative sample. Principal Findings Overall average cumulative expenditures are $292,401 through death or age 65, with 51.4 percent for cash benefits and 48.6 percent for health care. Expenditures are about twice the average for individuals first awarded benefits at age 18–30. Overall average expenditures increased by 10 percent when updated for a simulated 2012 cohort. Conclusions Data on cumulative expenditures, especially combined across programs, are useful for evaluating the long-term payoff of investments designed to modify entry to and exit from the disability rolls. PMID:25109322

Feasibility studies and pre-design simulation of Warsaw's new wastewater treatment plant.

PubMed

Oleszkiewicz, J A; Kalinowska, E; Dold, P; Barnard, J L; Bieniowski, M; Ferenc, Z; Jones, R; Rypina, A; Sudol, J

2004-12-01

The proposed transfer of wastewater from the western part of Warsaw, across the Wisla (Vistula) River for joint treatment at the existing eastern side "Czajka" wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) will result in combined winter flows of approx. 580,000 m3 d(-1). One-year of pilot-scale studies defined the COD characteristics and kinetics of nitrogen removal and VFA production from primary sludge. BioWin simulation was used to size and price the optional processes and pointed to the Westbank process as the most cost-effective. The process consists of a sequence of a RAS pre-denitrification zone followed by an anaerobic, anoxic and aerobic zone. Some 100-150 t d(-1) of 10% methanol would be needed to remove 2-4 mg l(-1) of NO3-N above the recommended effluent level TN = 10 mg l(-1). Applying the principle of annual average 80% TN removal, and allowing for use of daily composite samples (rather than grab) could annually save the municipality over 1.5 million Euro on external carbon source.

Assessment of phytoplankton resources suitable for bigheaded carps in Lake Michigan derived from remote sensing and bioenergetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Karl R.; Chapman, Duane C.; Wynne, Tim T.; Paukert, Craig P.

2017-01-01

We used bioenergetic simulations combined with satellite-measured water temperature and estimates of algal food availability to predict the habitat suitability of Lake Michigan for adult silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (H. nobilis). Depending on water temperature, we found that bigheaded carp require ambient algal concentrations between 1 and 7 μg chlorophyll/L or between 0.25 × 105 and 1.20 × 105 cells/mL Microcystis to maintain body weight. When the bioenergetics model is forced with the observed average annual temperature cycle, our simulations predicted silver carp bioenergetics predicted annual weight change ranging from 9% weight loss to 23% gain; bighead carp ranged from 68 to 177% weight gain. Algal concentrations b4 μg chlorophyll/L and b200,000 cells/mL were below the detection limits of the remote sensing method. However, all areas with detectable algae have sufficient concentrations of algal foods for bigheaded carp weight-maintenance and growth. Those areas are predominately along the nearshore areas.

Climate-driven uncertainties in modeling terrestrial gross primary production: a site level to global-scale analysis.

PubMed

Barman, Rahul; Jain, Atul K; Liang, Miaoling

2014-05-01

We used a land surface model to quantify the causes and extents of biases in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) due to the use of meteorological reanalysis datasets. We first calibrated the model using meteorology and eddy covariance data from 25 flux tower sites ranging from the tropics to the northern high latitudes and subsequently repeated the site simulations using two reanalysis datasets: NCEP/NCAR and CRUNCEP. The results show that at most sites, the reanalysis-driven GPP bias was significantly positive with respect to the observed meteorology-driven simulations. Notably, the absolute GPP bias was highest at the tropical evergreen tree sites, averaging up to ca. 0.45 kg C m(-2)  yr(-1) across sites (ca. 15% of site level GPP). At the northern mid-/high-latitude broadleaf deciduous and the needleleaf evergreen tree sites, the corresponding annual GPP biases were up to 20%. For the nontree sites, average annual biases of up to ca. 20-30% were simulated within savanna, grassland, and shrubland vegetation types. At the tree sites, the biases in short-wave radiation and humidity strongly influenced the GPP biases, while the nontree sites were more affected by biases in factors controlling water stress (precipitation, humidity, and air temperature). In this study, we also discuss the influence of seasonal patterns of meteorological biases on GPP. Finally, using model simulations for the global land surface, we discuss the potential impacts of site-level reanalysis-driven biases on the global estimates of GPP. In a broader context, our results can have important consequences on other terrestrial ecosystem fluxes (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem production, energy/water fluxes) and reservoirs (e.g., soil carbon stocks). In a complementary study (Barman et al., ), we extend the present analysis for latent and sensible heat fluxes, thus consistently integrating the analysis of climate-driven uncertainties in carbon, energy, and water fluxes using a single modeling framework. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Economic and Disease Burden of Dengue in Mexico

PubMed Central

Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Betancourt-Cravioto, Miguel; Ramos-Castañeda, José; Martínez-Vega, Ruth; Méndez-Galván, Jorge; Gubler, Duane J.; Guzmán, María G.; Halstead, Scott B.; Harris, Eva; Kuri-Morales, Pablo; Tapia-Conyer, Roberto; Shepard, Donald S.

2015-01-01

Background Dengue imposes a substantial economic and disease burden in most tropical and subtropical countries. Dengue incidence and severity have dramatically increased in Mexico during the past decades. Having objective and comparable estimates of the economic burden of dengue is essential to inform health policy, increase disease awareness, and assess the impact of dengue prevention and control technologies. Methods and Findings We estimated the annual economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico for the years 2010–2011. We merged multiple data sources, including a prospective cohort study; patient interviews and macro-costing from major hospitals; surveillance, budget, and health data from the Ministry of Health; WHO cost estimates; and available literature. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to derive 95% certainty levels (CL) for our estimates. Results suggest that Mexico had about 139,000 (95%CL: 128,000–253,000) symptomatic and 119 (95%CL: 75–171) fatal dengue episodes annually on average (2010–2011), compared to an average of 30,941 symptomatic and 59 fatal dengue episodes reported. The annual cost, including surveillance and vector control, was US$170 (95%CL: 151–292) million, or $1.56 (95%CL: 1.38–2.68) per capita, comparable to other countries in the region. Of this, $87 (95%CL: 87–209) million or $0.80 per capita (95%CL: 0.62–1.12) corresponds to illness. Annual disease burden averaged 65 (95%CL: 36–99) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per million population. Inclusion of long-term sequelae, co-morbidities, impact on tourism, and health system disruption during outbreaks would further increase estimated economic and disease burden. Conclusion With this study, Mexico joins Panama, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, and Thailand as the only countries or areas worldwide with comprehensive (illness and preventive) empirical estimates of dengue burden. Burden varies annually; during an outbreak, dengue burden may be significantly higher than that of the pre-vaccine level of rotavirus diarrhea. In sum, Mexico’s potential economic benefits from dengue control would be substantial. PMID:25786225

40 CFR Appendix to Subpart G of... - Applicant Questionnaire for Modification of Secondary Treatment Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... upon which your application for a modification is based: —BOD5 ___ mg/L —Suspended solids ___ mg/L —pH... dry weather —average wet weather —maximum —annual average BOD5 (mg/L) for the following plant flows: —minimum —average dry weather —average wet weather —maximum —annual average Suspended solids (mg/L) for the...

40 CFR Appendix to Subpart G of... - Applicant Questionnaire for Modification of Secondary Treatment Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... upon which your application for a modification is based: —BOD5 ___ mg/L —Suspended solids ___ mg/L —pH... dry weather —average wet weather —maximum —annual average BOD5 (mg/L) for the following plant flows: —minimum —average dry weather —average wet weather —maximum —annual average Suspended solids (mg/L) for the...

The influence of air temperature inversions on snowmelt and glacier mass-balance simulations, Ammassalik island, SE Greenland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mernild, Sebastian Haugard; Liston, Glen

2009-01-01

In many applications, a realistic description of air temperature inversions is essential for accurate snow and glacier ice melt, and glacier mass-balance simulations. A physically based snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) was used to simulate eight years (1998/99 to 2005/06) of snow accumulation and snow and glacier ice ablation from numerous small coastal marginal glaciers on the SW-part of Ammassalik Island in SE Greenland. These glaciers are regularly influenced by inversions and sea breezes associated with the adjacent relatively low temperature and frequently ice-choked fjords and ocean. To account for the influence of these inversions on the spatiotemporal variation of airmore » temperature and snow and glacier melt rates, temperature inversion routines were added to MircoMet, the meteorological distribution sub-model used in SnowModel. The inversions were observed and modeled to occur during 84% of the simulation period. Modeled inversions were defined not to occur during days with strong winds and high precipitation rates due to the potential of inversion break-up. Field observations showed inversions to extend from sea level to approximately 300 m a.s.l., and this inversion level was prescribed in the model simulations. Simulations with and without the inversion routines were compared. The inversion model produced air temperature distributions with warmer lower elevation areas and cooler higher elevation areas than without inversion routines due to the use of cold sea-breeze base temperature data from underneath the inversion. This yielded an up to 2 weeks earlier snowmelt in the lower areas and up to 1 to 3 weeks later snowmelt in the higher elevation areas of the simulation domain. Averaged mean annual modeled surface mass-balance for all glaciers (mainly located above the inversion layer) was -720 {+-} 620 mm w.eq. y{sup -1} for inversion simulations, and -880 {+-} 620 mm w.eq. y{sup -1} without the inversion routines, a difference of 160 mm w.eq. y{sup -1}. The annual glacier loss for the two simulations was 50.7 x 10{sup 6} m{sup 3} y{sup -1} and 64.4 x 10{sup 6} m{sup 3} y{sup -1} for all glaciers - a difference of {approx}21%. The average equilibrium line altitude (ELA) for all glaciers in the simulation domain was located at 875 m a.s.l. and at 900 m a.s.l. for simulations with or without inversion routines, respectively.« less

Global economic burden of Chagas disease: a computational simulation model.

PubMed

Lee, Bruce Y; Bacon, Kristina M; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Hotez, Peter J

2013-04-01

As Chagas disease continues to expand beyond tropical and subtropical zones, a growing need exists to better understand its resulting economic burden to help guide stakeholders such as policy makers, funders, and product developers. We developed a Markov simulation model to estimate the global and regional health and economic burden of Chagas disease from the societal perspective. Our Markov model structure had a 1 year cycle length and consisted of five states: acute disease, indeterminate disease, cardiomyopathy with or without congestive heart failure, megaviscera, and death. Major model parameter inputs, including the annual probabilities of transitioning from one state to another, and present case estimates for Chagas disease came from various sources, including WHO and other epidemiological and disease-surveillance-based reports. We calculated annual and lifetime health-care costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for individuals, countries, and regions. We used a discount rate of 3% to adjust all costs and DALYs to present-day values. On average, an infected individual incurs US$474 in health-care costs and 0·51 DALYs annually. Over his or her lifetime, an infected individual accrues an average net present value of $3456 and 3·57 DALYs. Globally, the annual burden is $627·46 million in health-care costs and 806,170 DALYs. The global net present value of currently infected individuals is $24·73 billion in health-care costs and 29,385,250 DALYs. Conversion of this burden into costs results in annual per-person costs of $4660 and lifetime per-person costs of $27,684. Global costs are $7·19 billion per year and $188·80 billion per lifetime. More than 10% of these costs emanate from the USA and Canada, where Chagas disease has not been traditionally endemic. A substantial proportion of the burden emerges from lost productivity from cardiovascular disease-induced early mortality. The economic burden of Chagas disease is similar to or exceeds those of other prominent diseases globally (eg, rotavirus $2·0 billion, cervical cancer $4·7 billion) even in the USA (Lyme disease $2·5 billion), where Chagas disease has not been traditionally endemic, suggesting an economic argument for more attention and efforts towards control of Chagas disease. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Application of spatially explicit landscape model in soil loss study in Huzhong area].

PubMed

Xu, Chonggang; Hu, Yuanman; Chang, Yu; Li, Xiuzhen; Bu, Renchang; He, Hongshi; Leng, Wenfang

2004-10-01

Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) has been widely used to estimate the average annual soil loss. In most of the previous work on soil loss evaluation on forestland, cover management factor was calculated from the static forest landscape. The advent of spatially explicit forest landscape model in the last decade, which explicitly simulates the forest succession dynamics under natural and anthropogenic disturbances (fire, wind, harvest and so on) on heterogeneous landscape, makes it possible to take into consideration the change of forest cover, and to dynamically simulate the soil loss in different year (e.g. 10 years and 20 years after current year). In this study, we linked a spatially explicit landscape model (LANDIS) with USLE to simulate the soil loss dynamics under two scenarios: fire and no harvest, fire and harvest. We also simulated the soil loss with no fire and no harvest as a control. The results showed that soil loss varied periodically with simulation year, and the amplitude of change was the lowest under the control scenario and the highest under the fire and no harvest scenario. The effect of harvest on soil loss could not be easily identified on the map; however, the cumulative effect of harvest on soil loss was larger than that of fire. Decreasing the harvest area and the percent of bare soil increased by harvest could significantly reduce soil loss, but had no significant effects on the dynamic of soil loss. Although harvest increased the annual soil loss, it tended to decrease the variability of soil loss between different simulation years.

An urban runoff model designed to inform stormwater management decisions.

PubMed

Beck, Nicole G; Conley, Gary; Kanner, Lisa; Mathias, Margaret

2017-05-15

We present an urban runoff model designed for stormwater managers to quantify runoff reduction benefits of mitigation actions that has lower input data and user expertise requirements than most commonly used models. The stormwater tool to estimate load reductions (TELR) employs a semi-distributed approach, where landscape characteristics and process representation are spatially-lumped within urban catchments on the order of 100 acres (40 ha). Hydrologic computations use a set of metrics that describe a 30-year rainfall distribution, combined with well-tested algorithms for rainfall-runoff transformation and routing to generate average annual runoff estimates for each catchment. User inputs include the locations and specifications for a range of structural best management practice (BMP) types. The model was tested in a set of urban catchments within the Lake Tahoe Basin of California, USA, where modeled annual flows matched that of the observed flows within 18% relative error for 5 of the 6 catchments and had good regional performance for a suite of performance metrics. Comparisons with continuous simulation models showed an average of 3% difference from TELR predicted runoff for a range of hypothetical urban catchments. The model usually identified the dominant BMP outflow components within 5% relative error of event-based measured flow data and simulated the correct proportionality between outflow components. TELR has been implemented as a web-based platform for use by municipal stormwater managers to inform prioritization, report program benefits and meet regulatory reporting requirements (www.swtelr.com). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Effective control measures at high particulate pollution areas : analysis of data from the 2000 Phoenix Greenwood study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-02-01

Annual average PM10 concentrations at the Greenwood monitoring station in western Phoenix have : exceeded EPAs annual average air quality standard and are higher on average than values observed at the : West Phoenix monitor, which is located just ...

ERROR IN ANNUAL AVERAGE DUE TO USE OF LESS THAN EVERYDAY MEASUREMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Long term averages of the concentration of PM mass and components are of interest for determining compliance with annual averages, for developing exposure surrogated for cross-sectional epidemiologic studies of the long-term of PM, and for determination of aerosol sources by chem...

40 CFR 464.34 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards and maximum day and maximum for monthly average concentration (mg/l) standards shall apply. Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.34 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

...-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards and maximum day and maximum for monthly average concentration (mg/l) standards shall apply. Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.34 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards and maximum day and maximum for monthly average concentration (mg/l) standards shall apply. Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

24 CFR 235.204 - Amount of annual MIP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... and Obligations-Homes for Lower Income Families § 235.204 Amount of annual MIP. (a) With respect to... an annual MIP shall be paid in an amount equal to one-half percent of the average outstanding... be paid in an amount equal to seven-tenths of one percent of the average outstanding principal...

24 CFR 235.204 - Amount of annual MIP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... and Obligations-Homes for Lower Income Families § 235.204 Amount of annual MIP. (a) With respect to... an annual MIP shall be paid in an amount equal to one-half percent of the average outstanding... be paid in an amount equal to seven-tenths of one percent of the average outstanding principal...

Modeling the effects of different N fertilizer rates on N2O emissions and nitrate leaching from arable soils in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Berger, S.; Tenhunen, J. D.; Gebauer, G.; Kiese, R.

2012-12-01

Process-based biogeochemical models can be used to predict the impact of various agricultural management practices on plant nitrogen use efficiency and nitrogen losses to the environment such as greenhouse gas emissions and nitrate leaching by analyzing the interactions between management practices, primary drivers such as climate, soil properties, crop types, etc., and biogeochemical reactions. In this study we applied the Landscape-DNDC model, which combines and uniforms functions of the agricultural-DNDC and the Forest-DNDC for simulation of C and N turnover, GHG emissions, nitrate leaching, and plant growth for a Korean arable field cultivated with radish (Raphanus sativus L.). The annual average temperature is app. 8.5°C and the annual precipitation is app. 1,500 mm. According to farmers practice the study field received a basal fertilizer application of app. 200 kg N ha-1 before setting up four fertilizer treatments i.e. additionally 50, 150, 250 and 350 kg N ha-1. All N treatment plots were tilled a week after application of specific N fertilizer in order to make row and interrow. Just before radish seeding rows were covered with black plastic mulch which was removed after harvest. In spite the widespread usage of black mulch in Korea or even Asia; so far biogeochemical models do not consider impacts of mulch on soil environmental conditions and soil biogeochemistry. Based on field measurements we adjusted input information and used only half of the annual precipitation and the maximum temperature for simulation of row conditions, whereas the actual weather data were used for the interrow simulations. Simulated N2O emissions agreed well with measurements; however peak emissions after fertilization were slightly underestimated in row and interrow. Annual N2O emissions of the fertilizer treatments increased with increasing fertilization rates from around 1.5 to 3 kg N ha-1 in the row and lower emissions of app. 1.5 kg N ha-1 (for all N treatments) in the interrow resulting in total direct emissions of about 1.5 to 2.3 kg N ha-1 yr-1 (area weighted average of row and interrow). Compared with the IPCC approach (EF = 0.01) these values are rather low which can be explained by high rates of simulated and measured nitrate leaching across all N treatments (row: 214 - 240 kg N ha-1 yr-1; interrow: 259 - 263 kg N ha-1 yr-1). Seasonal dynamic and magnitude of measured and simulated NO3 concentrations in soil water in different soil depths agreed well which give further evidence for the simulated nitrate leaching. Using the IPCC EF of 0.0075, nitrate leaching results in indirect N2O emissions of additionally 1.8 kg N ha-1 yr-1. Only slight increase of measured and simulated yields (4 to 5.2 t DW ha-1) with higher rates of N fertilization indicate that actual farmer practices can be improved and optimizing agricultural management considering the specific climatic and soil conditions has a high potential to reduce environmental impacts of crop cultivations in the study area of the Haean catchment.

How tropical cyclone inter-annual timing and trajectory control gross primary productivity in the SE US at seasonal and annual timescales and impacts on mountain forest eco-hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowman, L.; Barros, A.

2015-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are an important source of freshwater input to the SE US eco-hydrologic function. Soil moisture, a temporal integral of precipitation, is critical to plant photosynthesis and carbon assimilation. In this study, we investigate the impact TCs have on gross primary productivity (GPP) in the SE US using the physically-based Duke Coupled Hydrology Model with Vegetation (DCHM-V) which includes coupled water and energy cycles and a biochemical representation of photosynthesis. A parsimonious evaluation of model-estimated GPP against all available AmeriFlux data in the SE US is presented. We characterize the seasonality of vegetation activity in the SE US by simulating water, energy, and carbon fluxes using the DCHM-V at high spatial (4 km) and temporal (30-min) resolution over the period 2002 - 2012. The model is run offline using atmospheric forcing data from NLDAS-2, precipitation from StageIV, and phenology indices from MODIS FPAR/LAI. Analysis of model results show the tendency for low GPP to occur in the Appalachian Mountains during peak summer months when water stress limits stomatal function. We contrast these simulations with model runs where periods of TC activity are replaced with the monthly climatological diurnal cycle from NARR. Results show that the timing and trajectory of TCs are key to understanding their impact on GPP across the SE US. Specifically: 1) Timing of moisture input from TCs greatly influences the vegetation response. TCs during peak summer months increase GPP and years with TCs falling in peak summer months see much higher annual GPP averages; 2) Years of drought and low plant productivity (2006-2007, 2011-2012) in the SE US tend to have TCs that fall later in the year when the additional moisture input does not have a significant impact on vegetation activity; and 3) TC path impacts regional GPP averages. The mountain region shows large inter- and intra-annual variability in plant productivity and high sensitivity to water stress. The Appalachian mountain region tends to have higher GPP when TC trajectories are closer in proximity.

Onchocerciasis control in Nigeria: will households be able to afford community-directed treatment with ivermectin?

PubMed

Onwujekwe, O; Shu, E; Onwuameze, O; Ndum, C; Okonkwo, P

2001-12-21

To determine the level of affordability of community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) to households living in two onchocerciasis endemic Nigerian communities namely Toro in the north and Nike in the south. The proportion of the cost of treating people with ivermectin will deplete in average monthly/projected annual household expenditure on food and health care, and on average monthly and projected annual household income were respectively calculated and used to determine the level of affordability of CDTI. Questionnaires administered to heads of households or their representatives were used to collect information on the household expenditures and income. The suggested unit CDTI cost of $0.20 was used. However, as a test of sensitivity, we also used the unit cost of $0.056 which some community based distributors are charging per treatment. Using $0.20 as the unit treatment cost, this will consume less than 0.05% of average annual household income in both communities. It will equally deplete 0.05% of combined annual household expenditures on food and health care in both communities. However, using $0.056 as the unit treatment cost, then 0.02% of average annual household expenditure on health care, 0.01% average annual expenditure on combined health care and food, and 0.01% of average annual household income will be depleted. The households living in both communities may be able to afford CDTI schemes. However, the final decision on levels of affordability lies with the households. They will decide whether they can afford to trade-off some household income for ivermectin distribution.

78 FR 19262 - Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average Total Assets That Defines Community Financial...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-29

... FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY [No. 2013-N-04] Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average.... ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has adjusted the cap on average total... Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and that has average total assets below a statutory cap.\\2\\ The Bank...

75 FR 9601 - Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average Total Assets That Defines Community Financial...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-03

... FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY [No. 2010-N-01] Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average.... ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has adjusted the cap on average total... Deposit Insurance Corporation and that has average total assets below a statutory cap. See 12 U.S.C. 1422...

26 CFR 1.411(d)-3 - Section 411(d)(6) protected benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... an annual benefit of 2% of career average pay times years of service commencing at normal retirement... an annual benefit of 1.3% of final pay times years of service, with final pay computed as the average... has 16 years of service, M's career average pay is $37,500, and the average of M's highest 3...

Mars Characterization for Future Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

1999-01-01

Annual simulations of Mars' atmosphere made with the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model have been used to extract and generate products to provide statistical products that detail the variability of Mars' atmosphere on fairly short time scales. These products are needed for the creation of a new version of Mars-GRAM, due for completion in June, 1999. The updated Mars-Gram, in turn, will provide guidance for forthcoming aerobraking and aerocapture activities. We have created files containing zonally-averaged fields (temperatures, densities, pressures, and winds, all on z-surfaces), as well as zonally-averaged diurnal and semidiurnal tidal amplitudes and phases. All fields represent a time averaged state (over either 5 or 30 sols), and all fields are available at each of 12 seasons for a Mars year (the seasons being 30deg of Ls apart). Files for low and moderate dust loading cases are liable via anonymous ftp. Files for a high dust case will be in place shortly.

Unexpected extreme events drive the inter-annual variabilty in carbon exchange at the Pine forest in Netherlands.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sethi, Sanjna; Moors, Eddy; Jamir, Chubamenla

2017-04-01

The carbon exchange between vegetation and the atmosphere tends to vary on an annual basis. This change is a continuous process its trend emerging over a period of years can be analysed. In any such trend over a prolonged period, some years stand out more than the others on account of extreme events. Explaining deviations from the expected average emissions may help to understand the drivers behind these interannual deviations. Such noticeable deviations in trend maybe on account of extreme events and need to be analysed in overall context of the ecosystem. This research's focus is to identify the main drivers responsible for the deviations, and how extreme events impact the variability over a prolonged period of time. The hypothesis being that extreme events are driving these deviations. Carbon flux data done for multiple years (1997-2015) for a site at the Loobos Pine Forest is used and compared with an ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) to understand if the deviation of measured data from the simulated data is on account of extreme events on a monthly and daily basis. A Principal Component Analysis is performed on the identified deviations between measured and simulated carbon exchange to pin point the main cause behind their occurrence.​

Simulations of wind erosion along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway in north-central Tibet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Yingsha; Gao, Yanhong; Dong, Zhibao; Liu, Benli; Zhao, Lin

2018-06-01

Wind erosion along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway causes sand hazard and poses threats to the safety of trains and passengers. A coupled land-surface erosion model (Noah-MPWE) was developed to simulate the wind erosion along the railway. Comparison with the data from the 137Cs isotope analysis shows that this coupled model could simulate the mean erosion amount reasonably. The coupled model was then applied to eight sites along the railway to investigate the wind-erosion distribution and variations from 1979 to 2012. Factors affecting wind erosion spatially and temporally were assessed as well. Majority wind erosion occurs in the non-monsoon season from December to April of the next year except for the site located in desert. The region between Wudaoliang and Tanggula has higher wind erosion occurrences and soil lose amount because of higher frequency of strong wind and relatively lower soil moisture than other sites. Inter-annually, all sites present a significant decreasing trend of annual soil loss with an average rate of -0.18 kg m-2 a-1 in 1979-2012. Decreased frequency of strong wind, increased precipitation and soil moisture contribute to the reduction of wind erosion in 1979-2012. Snow cover duration and vegetation coverage also have great impact on the occurrence of wind erosion.

Effects of Changes in Irrigation Practices and Aquifer Development on Groundwater Discharge to the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve near Salinas, Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuniansky, Eve L.; Rodriguez, Jose M.

2010-01-01

Since 1990, about 75 acres of black mangroves have died in the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve near Salinas, Puerto Rico. Although many factors can contribute to the mortality of mangroves, changes in irrigation practices, rainfall, and water use resulted in as much as 25 feet of drawdown in the potentiometric surface of the aquifer in the vicinity of the reserve between 1986 and 2002. To clarify the issue, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources, conducted a study to ascertain how aquifer development and changes in irrigation practices have affected groundwater levels and groundwater flow to the Mar Negro area of the reserve. Changes in groundwater flow to the mangrove swamp and bay from 1986 to 2004 were estimated in this study by developing and calibrating a numerical groundwater flow model. The transient simulations indicate that prior to 1994, high irrigation return flows more than offset the effect of reduced groundwater withdrawals. In this case, the simulated discharge to the coast in the modeled area was 19 million gallons per day. From 1994 through 2004, furrow irrigation was completely replaced by micro-drip irrigation, thus eliminating return flows and the simulated average coastal discharge was 7 million gallons per day, a reduction of 63 percent. The simulated average groundwater discharge to the coastal mangrove swamps in the reserve from 1986 to 1993 was 2 million gallons per day, compared to an average simulated discharge of 0.2 million gallons per day from 1994 to 2004. The average annual rainfall for each of these periods was 38 inches. The groundwater discharge to the coastal mangrove swamps in the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve was estimated at about 0.5 million gallons per day for 2003-2004 because of higher than average annual rainfall during these 2 years. The groundwater flow model was used to test five alternatives for increasing groundwater discharge to the coastal mangrove swamps to approximately 1.4 million gallons per day: (1) artificially recharging the aquifer with injection wells or (2) by increasing irrigation return flow by going back to furrow irrigation; (3) termination of groundwater withdrawals near the mangroves; (4) reduction of groundwater withdrawals at irrigation wells by 50 percent; and (5) a combination of alternatives 2 and 4 increasing irrigation return flows and decreasing irrigation withdrawals. Each alternative assumed average climatic conditions and groundwater withdrawals at 2004 rates. Alternative 1 required 1.5 million gallons per day of injected water. Alternative 2 required flooding 958 acres with a rate of 1.84 million gallons per day if no crops are grown. Alternative 3 required the termination of 2.44 million gallons per day of withdrawals to achieve 1.34 million gallons per day of discharge to the mangroves. Alternative 4 did not achieve the objective with only 0.80 million gallons per day simulated discharge to the mangroves, while requiring a 1.26 million gallon per day reduction in groundwater withdrawals. Alternative 5 required flooding fields with additional 1.13 million gallons of day and the same reduction in groundwater withdrawals, but did achieve the objective of about 1.4 million gallons per day discharge to the mangroves. Alternative 1, incorporating injection wells near the reserve required the least amount of water to raise groundwater levels and maintain discharge of 1.4 million gallons per day through the mangroves.

50 CFR 218.122 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—1,645 (an average of 329 annually); (B) Killer whale... the rule must be maintained. (4) Level B Harassment: (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—6,975 (an average of 1,395 annually); (B) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—55185 (an average of...

50 CFR 218.122 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

...: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—1,645 (an average of 329 annually); (B) Killer whale... the rule must be maintained. (4) Level B Harassment: (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—6,975 (an average of 1,395 annually); (B) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—55185 (an average of...

50 CFR 218.122 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—1,645 (an average of 329 annually); (B) Killer whale... the rule must be maintained. (4) Level B Harassment: (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—6,975 (an average of 1,395 annually); (B) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—55185 (an average of...

Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

PubMed

Deng, Cai; Zhang, Wanchang

2018-05-30

As the backland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the river source region is highly sensitive to changes in global climate. Air temperature estimation using remote sensing satellite provides a new way of conducting studies in the field of climate change study. A geographically weighted regression model was applied to estimate synchronic air temperature from 2001 to 2015 using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometry (MODIS) data. The results were R 2  = 0.913 and RMSE = 2.47 °C, which confirmed the feasibility of the estimation. The spatial distribution and variation characteristics of the average annual and seasonal air temperature were analyzed. The findings are as follows: (1) the distribution of average annual air temperature has significant terrain characteristics. The reduction in average annual air temperature along the elevation of the region is 0.19 °C/km, whereas the reduction in the average annual air temperature along the latitude is 0.04 °C/degree. (2) The average annual air temperature increase in the region is 0.37 °C/decade. The average air temperature increase could be arranged in the following decreasing order: Yangtze River Basin > Mekong River Basin > Nujiang River Basin > Yarlung Zangbo River Basin > Yellow River Basin. The fastest, namely, Yangtze River Basin, is 0.47 °C/decade. (3) The average air temperature rise in spring, summer, and winter generally increases with higher altitude. The average annual air temperature in different types of lands following a decreasing order is as follows: wetland > construction land > bare land glacier > shrub grassland > arable land > forest land > water body and that of the fastest one, wetland, is 0.13 °C/year.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Comparison of Software Models for Energy Savings from Cool Roofs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

New, Joshua Ryan; Miller, William A; Huang, Yu

2014-01-01

A web-based Roof Savings Calculator (RSC) has been deployed for the United States Department of Energy as an industry-consensus tool to help building owners, manufacturers, distributors, contractors and researchers easily run complex roof and attic simulations. This tool employs modern web technologies, usability design, and national average defaults as an interface to annual simulations of hour-by-hour, whole-building performance using the world-class simulation tools DOE-2.1E and AtticSim in order to provide estimated annual energy and cost savings. In addition to cool reflective roofs, RSC simulates multiple roof and attic configurations including different roof slopes, above sheathing ventilation, radiant barriers, low-emittance roofmore » surfaces, duct location, duct leakage rates, multiple substrate types, and insulation levels. A base case and energy-efficient alternative can be compared side-by-side to estimate monthly energy. RSC was benchmarked against field data from demonstration homes in Ft. Irwin, California; while cooling savings were similar, heating penalty varied significantly across different simulation engines. RSC results reduce cool roofing cost-effectiveness thus mitigating expected economic incentives for this countermeasure to the urban heat island effect. This paper consolidates comparison of RSC s projected energy savings to other simulation engines including DOE-2.1E, AtticSim, Micropas, and EnergyPlus, and presents preliminary analyses. RSC s algorithms for capturing radiant heat transfer and duct interaction in the attic assembly are considered major contributing factors to increased cooling savings and heating penalties. Comparison to previous simulation-based studies, analysis on the force multiplier of RSC cooling savings and heating penalties, the role of radiative heat exchange in an attic assembly, and changes made for increased accuracy of the duct model are included.« less

Remote sensing evaluation of CLM4 GPP for the period 2000 to 2009

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mao, Jiafu; Thornton, Peter E; Shi, Xiaoying

2012-01-01

The ability of a process-based ecosystem model like Version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4) to provide accurate estimates of CO2 flux is a top priority for researchers, modelers and policy makers. Remote sensing can provide long-term and large scale products suitable for ecosystem model evaluation. Global estimations of gross primary production (GPP) at the 1 km spatial resolution from years 2000 to 2009 from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensor offer a unique opportunity for evaluating the temporal and spatial patterns of global GPP and its relationship with climate for CLM4. We compare monthly GPP simulated bymore » CLM4 at half-degree resolution with satellite estimates of GPP from the MODIS GPP (MOD17) dataset for the 10-yr period, January 2000 December 2009. The assessment is presented in terms of long-term mean carbon assimilation, seasonal mean distributions, amplitude and phase of the annual cycle, and intra-annual and inter-annual GPP variability and their responses to climate variables. For the long-term annual and seasonal means, major GPP patterns are clearly demonstrated by both products. Compared to the MODIS product, CLM4 overestimates the magnitude of GPP for tropical evergreen forests. CLM4 has longer carbon uptake period than MODIS for most plant functional types (PFTs) with an earlier onset of GPP in spring and later decline of GPP in autumn. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the monthly GPP changes indicates that on the intra-annual scale, both CLM4 and MODIS display similar spatial representations and temporal patterns for most terrestrial ecosystems except in northeast Russia and the very dry region in central Australia. For 2000-2009, CLM4 simulates increases in annual averaged GPP over both hemispheres, however estimates from MODIS suggest a reduction in the Southern Hemisphere (-0.2173 PgC/year) balancing the significant increase over the Northern Hemisphere (0.2157 PgC/year).« less

Influence of net freshwater supply on salinity in Florida Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nuttle, William K.; Fourqurean, James W.; Cosby, Bernard J.; Zieman, Joseph C.; Robblee, Michael B.

2000-01-01

An annual water budget for Florida Bay, the large, seasonally hypersaline estuary in the Everglades National Park, was constructed using physically based models and long‐term (31 years) data on salinity, hydrology, and climate. Effects of seasonal and interannual variations of the net freshwater supply (runoff plus rainfall minus evaporation) on salinity variation within the bay were also examined. Particular attention was paid to the effects of runoff, which are the focus of ambitious plans to restore and conserve the Florida Bay ecosystem. From 1965 to 1995 the annual runoff from the Everglades into the bay was less than one tenth of the annual direct rainfall onto the bay, while estimated annual evaporation slightly exceeded annual rainfall. The average net freshwater supply to the bay over a year was thus approximately zero, and interannual variations in salinity appeared to be affected primarily by interannual fluctuations in rainfall. At the annual scale, runoff apparently had little effect on the bay as a whole during this period. On a seasonal basis, variations in rainfall, evaporation, and runoff were not in phase, and the net freshwater supply to the bay varied between positive and negative values, contributing to a strong seasonal pattern in salinity, especially in regions of the bay relatively isolated from exchanges with the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Changes in runoff could have a greater effect on salinity in the bay if the seasonal patterns of rainfall and evaporation and the timing of the runoff are considered. One model was also used to simulate spatial and temporal patterns of salinity responses expected to result from changes in net freshwater supply. Simulations in which runoff was increased by a factor of 2 (but with no change in spatial pattern) indicated that increased runoff will lower salinity values in eastern Florida Bay, increase the variability of salinity in the South Region, but have little effect on salinity in the Central and West Regions.

Effects of simulated daily precipitation patterns on annual plant populations depend on life stage and climatic region.

PubMed

Köchy, Martin

2008-03-27

To improve the understanding of consequences of climate change for annual plant communities, I used a detailed, grid-based model that simulates the effect of daily rainfall variability on individual plants in five climatic regions on a gradient from 100 to 800 mm mean annual precipitation (MAP). The model explicitly considers moisture storage in the soil. I manipulated daily rainfall variability by changing the daily mean rain (DMR, rain volume on rainy days averaged across years for each day of the year) by +/- 20%. At the same time I adjusted intervals appropriately between rainy days for keeping the mean annual volume constant. In factorial combination with changing DMR I also changed MAP by +/- 20%. Increasing MAP generally increased water availability, establishment, and peak shoot biomass. Increasing DMR increased the time that water was continuously available to plants in the upper 15 to 30 cm of the soil (longest wet period, LWP). The effect of DMR diminished with increasing humidity of the climate. An interaction between water availability and density-dependent germination increased the establishment of seedlings in the arid region, but in the more humid regions the establishment of seedlings decreased with increasing DMR. As plants matured, competition among individuals and their productivity increased, but the size of these effects decreased with the humidity of the regions. Therefore, peak shoot biomass generally increased with increasing DMR but the effect size diminished from the semiarid to the mesic Mediterranean region. Increasing DMR reduced via LWP the annual variability of biomass in the semiarid and dry Mediterranean regions. More rainstorms (greater DMR) increased the recharge of soil water reservoirs in more arid sites with consequences for germination, establishment, productivity, and population persistence. The order of magnitudes of DMR and MAP overlapped partially so that their combined effect is important for projections of climate change effects on annual vegetation.

[Emission inventory of greenhouse gases from agricultural residues combustion: a case study of Jiangsu Province].

PubMed

Liu, Li-hua; Jiang, Jing-yan; Zong, Liang-gang

2011-05-01

Burning of agricultural crop residues was a major source greenhouse gases. In this study, the proportion of crop straws (rice, wheat, maize, oil rape, cotton and soja) in Jiangsu used as household fuel and direct open burning in different periods (1990-1995, 1996-2000, 2001-2005 and 2006-2008) was estimated through questionnaire. The emission factors of CO2, CO, CH4 and NO20 from the above six types of crop straws were calculated by the simulated burning experiment. Thus the emission inventory of greenhouse gases from crop straws burning was established according to above the burning percentages and emission factors, ratios of dry residues to production and crop productions of different periods in Jiangsu province. Results indicated that emission factors of CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O depended on crop straw type. The emission factors of CO2 and CH4 were higher for oil rape straw than the other straws, while the maize and the rice straw had the higher N2O and CO emission factor. Emission inventory of greenhouse gases from agricultural residues burning in Jiangsu province showed, the annual average global warming potential (GWP) of six tested crop straws were estimated to be 9.18 (rice straw), 4.35 (wheat straw), 2.55 (maize straw), 1.63 (oil rape straw), 0.55 (cotton straw) and 0. 39 (soja straw) Tg CO2 equivalent, respectively. Among the four study periods, the annual average GWP had no obvious difference between the 1990-1995 and 2006-2008 periods, while the maximal annual average GWP (23.83 Tg CO2 equivalent) happened in the 1996-2000 period, and the minimum (20.30 Tg CO2 equivalent) in 1996-2000 period.

76 FR 3142 - Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average Total Assets That Defines Community Financial...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-19

... FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY [No. 2011-N-01] Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average.... ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has adjusted the cap on average total... average total assets below a statutory cap. See 12 U.S.C. 1422(10)(A); 12 CFR 1263.1. The Bank Act was...

Dynamical diagnostics of the SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific: Part II analysis of CMIP5 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ying-Ying; Jin, Fei-Fei

2017-12-01

In this study, a simple coupled framework established in Part I is utilized to investigate inter-model diversity in simulating the equatorial Pacific SST annual cycle (SSTAC). It demonstrates that the simulated amplitude and phase characteristics of SSTAC in models are controlled by two internal dynamical factors (the damping rate and phase speed) and two external forcing factors (the strength of the annual and semi-annual harmonic forcing). These four diagnostic factors are further condensed into a dynamical response factor and a forcing factor to derive theoretical solutions of amplitude and phase of SSTAC. The theoretical solutions are in remarkable agreement with observations and CMIP5 simulations. The great diversity in the simulated SSTACs is related to the spreads in these dynamic and forcing factors. Most models tend to simulate a weak SSTAC, due to their weak damping rate and annual harmonic forcing. The latter is due to bias in the meridional asymmetry of the annual mean state of the tropical Pacific, represented by the weak cross-equatorial winds in the cold tongue region.

Globally Averaged Atmospheric CFC-11 Concentrations: Monthly and Annual Data for the Period 1975-1992 (DB1010)

DOE Data Explorer

Khalil, M. A.K. [Oregon Graduate Institute of Science and Technology Portland, Oregon (USA); Rasmussen, R. A. [Oregon Graduate Institute of Science and Technology Portland, Oregon

1996-01-01

This data set presents globally averaged atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbon 11, known also as CFC-11 or F-11 (chemical name: trichlorofluoromethane; formula: CCl3F). The monthly global average data are derived from flask air samples collected at eight sites in six locations over the period August 1980-July 1992. The sites are Barrow (Alaska), Cape Meares (Oregon), Cape Kumukahi and Mauna Loa (Hawaii), Cape Matatula (American Samoa), Cape Grim (Tasmania), Palmer Station, and the South Pole (Antarctica). At each collection site, monthly averages were obtained from three flask samples collected every week. In addition to the monthly global averages available for 1980-992, this data set also contains annual global average data for 1975-1985. These annual global averages were derived from January measurements at the South Pole and in the Pacific Northwest of the United States (specifically, Washington state and the Oregon coast).

Kriging analysis of mean annual precipitation, Powder River Basin, Montana and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karlinger, M.R.; Skrivan, James A.

1981-01-01

Kriging is a statistical estimation technique for regionalized variables which exhibit an autocorrelation structure. Such structure can be described by a semi-variogram of the observed data. The kriging estimate at any point is a weighted average of the data, where the weights are determined using the semi-variogram and an assumed drift, or lack of drift, in the data. Block, or areal, estimates can also be calculated. The kriging algorithm, based on unbiased and minimum-variance estimates, involves a linear system of equations to calculate the weights. Kriging variances can then be used to give confidence intervals of the resulting estimates. Mean annual precipitation in the Powder River basin, Montana and Wyoming, is an important variable when considering restoration of coal-strip-mining lands of the region. Two kriging analyses involving data at 60 stations were made--one assuming no drift in precipitation, and one a partial quadratic drift simulating orographic effects. Contour maps of estimates of mean annual precipitation were similar for both analyses, as were the corresponding contours of kriging variances. Block estimates of mean annual precipitation were made for two subbasins. Runoff estimates were 1-2 percent of the kriged block estimates. (USGS)

Systematic review of the relationship of Helicobacter pylori infection with geographical latitude, average annual temperature and average daily sunshine.

PubMed

Lu, Chao; Yu, Ye; Li, Lan; Yu, Chaohui; Xu, Ping

2018-04-17

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection is a worldwide threat to human health with high prevalence. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between latitude, average annual temperature, average daily sunshine time and H. pylori infection. The PubMed, ClinicalTrials.gov , EBSCO and Web of Science databases were searched to identify studies reporting H. pylori infection. Latitude 30° was the cut-off level for low and mid-latitude areas. We obtained information for latitude, average annual temperature, average daily sunshine, and Human Development Index (HDI) from reports of studies of the relationships with H. pylori infection. Of the 51 studies included, there was significant difference in H. pylori infection between the low- and mid-latitude areas (P = 0.05). There was no significant difference in the prevalence of H. pylori infection in each 15°-latitude zone analyzed (P = 0.061). Subgroup analysis revealed the highest and lowest H. pylori infection rates in the developing regions at > 30° latitude subgroup and the developed regions at < 30° latitude subgroup, respectively (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that average annual temperature, average daily sunshine time and HDI were significantly correlated with H. pylori infection (P = 0.009, P < 0.001, P < 0.001), while there was no correlation between H. pylori infection and latitude. Our analysis showed that higher average annual temperature was associated with lower H. pylori infection rates, while average daily sunshine time correlated positively with H. pylori infection. HDI was also found to be a significant factor, with higher HDI associated with lower infection rates. These findings provide evidence that can be used to devise strategies for the prevention and control of H. pylori.

Estimating 1970-99 average annual groundwater recharge in Wisconsin using streamflow data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Walker, John F.; Kennedy, James L.

2011-01-01

Average annual recharge in Wisconsin for the period 1970-99 was estimated using streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations and partial-record sites. Partial-record sites have discharge measurements collected during low-flow conditions. The average annual base flow of a stream divided by the drainage area is a good approximation of the recharge rate; therefore, once average annual base flow is determined recharge can be calculated. Estimates of recharge for nearly 72 percent of the surface area of the State are provided. The results illustrate substantial spatial variability of recharge across the State, ranging from less than 1 inch to more than 12 inches per year. The average basin size for partial-record sites (50 square miles) was less than the average basin size for the gaging stations (305 square miles). Including results for smaller basins reveals a spatial variability that otherwise would be smoothed out using only estimates for larger basins. An error analysis indicates that the techniques used provide base flow estimates with standard errors ranging from 5.4 to 14 percent.

ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT AND DRIFT, MODELED AS A VISCOUS FLUID.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ling, Chi-Hai; Parkinson, Claire L.

1986-01-01

A dynamic/thermodynamic numerical model of sea ice has been used to calculate the yearly cycle of sea ice thicknesses, concentrations, and velocities in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. The model combines the formulations of two previous models, taking the thermodynamics and momentum equations from the model of Parkinson and Washington and adding the constitutive equation and equation of state from the model of Ling, Rasmussen, and Campbell. Simulated annually averaged ice drift vectors compare well with observed ice drift from the Arctic Ocean Buoy Program.

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes from three contrasting evergreen forests: the role of forest dynamics and climate.

PubMed

Sierra, Carlos A; Loescher, Henry W; Harmon, Mark E; Richardson, Andrew D; Hollinger, David Y; Perakis, Steven S

2009-10-01

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed approximately 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results also show that the variation of annual carbon fluxes poses an important challenge in our ability to determine whether an ecosystem is a source, a sink, or is neutral in regard to CO2 at longer timescales. In simulations where climate change negatively affected ecosystem carbon stores, there was a 20% chance of committing Type II error, even with 20 years of sequential data.

Sediment Flux of Particulate Organic Phosphorus in the Open Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkhomenko, A. V.; Kukushkin, A. S.

2018-03-01

The interannual variation of the monthly average (weighted average) concentrations of particulate organic phosphorus (PPOM) in the photosynthetic layer, oxycline, redox zone, and H2S zone in the open Black Sea is estimated based on long-term observation data. The suspension sedimentation rates from the studied layers are assessed using model calculations and published data. The annual variation of PPOM sediment fluxes from the photosynthetic layer, oxycline, redox zone, and upper H2S zone to the anaerobic zone of the sea and the correspondingly annual average values are estimated for the first time. A regular decrease in the PPOM annual average flux with depth in the upper active layer is demonstrated. A correlation between the annual average values of PPOM sediment flux from the photosynthetic layer and ascending phosphate flux to this layer is shown, which suggests their balance in the open sea. The results are discussed in terms of the phosphorus biogeochemical cycle and the concept of new and regenerative primary production in the open Black Sea.

An estimation of Canadian population exposure to cosmic rays.

PubMed

Chen, Jing; Timmins, Rachel; Verdecchia, Kyle; Sato, Tatsuhiko

2009-08-01

The worldwide average exposure to cosmic rays contributes to about 16% of the annual effective dose from natural radiation sources. At ground level, doses from cosmic ray exposure depend strongly on altitude, and weakly on geographical location and solar activity. With the analytical model PARMA developed by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency, annual effective doses due to cosmic ray exposure at ground level were calculated for more than 1,500 communities across Canada which cover more than 85% of the Canadian population. The annual effective doses from cosmic ray exposure in the year 2000 during solar maximum ranged from 0.27 to 0.72 mSv with the population-weighted national average of 0.30 mSv. For the year 2006 during solar minimum, the doses varied between 0.30 and 0.84 mSv, and the population-weighted national average was 0.33 mSv. Averaged over solar activity, the Canadian population-weighted average annual effective dose due to cosmic ray exposure at ground level is estimated to be 0.31 mSv.

Hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow and analysis of projected water use for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer, western and central Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, John H.; Mashburn, Shana L.; Graves, Grant M.; Peterson, Steven M.; Smith, S. Jerrod; Fuhrig, Leland T.; Wagner, Derrick L.; Sanford, Jon E.

2017-02-13

This report describes a study of the hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer in western and central Oklahoma conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board. The report (1) quantifies the groundwater resources of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer by developing a conceptual model, (2) summarizes the general water quality of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer groundwater by using data collected during August and September 2013, (3) evaluates the effects of estimated equal proportionate share (EPS) on aquifer storage and streamflow for time periods of 20, 40, and 50 years into the future by using numerical groundwater-flow models, and (4) evaluates the effects of present-day groundwater pumping over a 50-year period and sustained hypothetical drought conditions over a 10-year period on stream base flow and groundwater in storage by using numerical flow models. The Canadian River alluvial aquifer is a Quaternary-age alluvial and terrace unit consisting of beds of clay, silt, sand, and fine gravel sediments unconformably overlying Tertiary-, Permian-, and Pennsylvanian-age sedimentary rocks. For groundwater-flow modeling purposes, the Canadian River was divided into Reach I, extending from the Texas border to the Canadian River at the Bridgeport, Okla., streamgage (07228500), and Reach II, extending downstream from the Canadian River at the Bridgeport, Okla., streamgage (07228500), to the confluence of the river with Eufaula Lake. The Canadian River alluvial aquifer spans multiple climate divisions, ranging from semiarid in the west to humid subtropical in the east. The average annual precipitation in the study area from 1896 to 2014 was 34.4 inches per year (in/yr).A hydrogeologic framework of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was developed that includes the areal and vertical extent of the aquifer and the distribution, texture variability, and hydraulic properties of aquifer materials. The aquifer areal extent ranged from less than 0.2 to 8.5 miles wide. The maximum aquifer thickness was 120 feet (ft), and the average aquifer thickness was 50 ft. Average horizontal hydraulic conductivity for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was calculated to be 39 feet per day, and the maximum horizontal hydraulic conductivity was calculated to be 100 feet per day.Recharge rates to the Canadian River alluvial aquifer were estimated by using a soil-water-balance code to estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge and a water-table fluctuation method to estimate localized recharge rates. By using daily precipitation and temperature data from 39 climate stations, recharge was estimated to average 3.4 in/yr, which corresponds to 8.7 percent of precipitation as recharge for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer from 1981 to 2013. The water-table fluctuation method was used at one site where continuous water-level observation data were available to estimate the percentage of precipitation that becomes groundwater recharge. Estimated annual recharge at that site was 9.7 in/yr during 2014.Groundwater flow in the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was identified and quantified by a conceptual flow model for the period 1981–2013. Inflows to the Canadian River alluvial aquifer include recharge to the water table from precipitation, lateral flow from the surrounding bedrock, and flow from the Canadian River, whereas outflows include flow to the Canadian River (base-flow gain), evapotranspiration, and groundwater use. Total annual recharge inflows estimated by the soil-water-balance code were multiplied by the area of each reach and then averaged over the simulated period to produce an annual average of 28,919 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) for Reach I and 82,006 acre-ft/yr for Reach II. Stream base flow to the Canadian River was estimated to be the largest outflow of groundwater from the aquifer, measured at four streamgages, along with evapotranspiration and groundwater use, which were relatively minor discharge components.Objectives for the numerical groundwater-flow models included simulating groundwater flow in the Canadian River alluvial aquifer from 1981 to 2013 to address groundwater use and drought scenarios, including calculation of the EPS pumping rates. The EPS for the alluvial and terrace aquifers is defined by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board as the amount of fresh water that each landowner is allowed per year per acre of owned land to maintain a saturated thickness of at least 5 ft in at least 50 percent of the overlying land of the groundwater basin for a minimum of 20 years.The groundwater-flow models were calibrated to water-table altitude observations, streamgage base flows, and base-flow gain to the Canadian River. The Reach I water-table altitude observation root-mean-square error was 6.1 ft, and 75 percent of residuals were within ±6.7 ft of observed measurements. The average simulated stream base-flow residual at the Bridgeport streamgage (07228500) was 8.8 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), and 75 percent of residuals were within ±30 ft3/s of observed measurements. Simulated base-flow gain in Reach I was 8.8 ft3/s lower than estimated base-flow gain. The Reach II water-table altitude observation root-mean-square error was 4 ft, and 75 percent of residuals were within ±4.3 ft of the observations. The average simulated stream base-flow residual in Reach II was between 35 and 132 ft3/s. The average simulated base-flow gain residual in Reach II was between 11.3 and 61.1 ft3/s.Several future predictive scenarios were run, including estimating the EPS pumping rate for 20-, 40-, and 50-year life of basin scenarios, determining the effects of current groundwater use over a 50-year period into the future, and evaluating the effects of a sustained drought on water availability for both reaches. The EPS pumping rate was determined to be 1.35 acre-feet per acre per year ([acre-ft/acre]/yr) in Reach I and 3.08 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II for a 20-year period. For the 40- and 50-year periods, the EPS rate was determined to be 1.34 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach I and 3.08 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II. Storage changes decreased in tandem with simulated groundwater pumping and were minimal after the first 15 simulated years for Reach I and the first 8 simulated years for Reach II.Groundwater pumping at year 2013 rates for a period of 50 years resulted in a 0.2-percent decrease in groundwater-storage volumes in Reach I and a 0.6-percent decrease in the groundwater-storage volumes in Reach II. The small changes in storage are due to groundwater use by pumping, which composes a small percentage of the total groundwater-flow model budgets for Reaches I and II.A sustained drought scenario was used to evaluate the effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought on water availability. A 10-year period was chosen where the effects of drought conditions would be simulated by decreasing recharge by 75 percent. In Reach I, average simulated stream base flow at the Bridgeport streamgage (07228500) decreased by 58 percent during the hypothetical 10-year drought compared to average simulated stream base flow during the nondrought period. In Reach II, average simulated stream base flows at the Purcell streamgage (07229200) and Calvin streamgage (07231500) decreased by 64 percent and 54 percent, respectively. In Reach I, the groundwater-storage drought scenario resulted in a storage decline of 30 thousand acre-feet, or an average decline in the water table of 1.2 ft. In Reach II, the groundwater-storage drought scenario resulted in a storage decline of 71 thousand acre-feet, or an average decline in the water table of 2.0 ft.

Simulating the impacts of land use in northwest Europe on Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE): the role of arable ecosystems, grasslands and forest plantations in climate change mitigation.

PubMed

Abdalla, Mohamed; Saunders, Matthew; Hastings, Astley; Williams, Mike; Smith, Pete; Osborne, Bruce; Lanigan, Gary; Jones, Mike B

2013-11-01

In this study, we compared measured and simulated Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) values from three wide spread ecosystems in the southeast of Ireland (forest, arable and grassland), and investigated the suitability of the DNDC (the DeNitrification-DeComposition) model to estimate present and future NEE. Although, the field-DNDC version overestimated NEE at temperatures >5 °C, forest-DNDC under-estimated NEE at temperatures >5 °C. The results suggest that the field/forest DNDC models can successfully estimate changes in seasonal and annual NEE from these ecosystems. Differences in NEE were found to be primarily land cover specific. The annual NEE was similar for the grassland and arable sites, but due to the contribution of exported carbon, the soil carbon increased at the grassland site and decreased at the arable site. The NEE of the forest site was an order of magnitude larger than that of the grassland or arable ecosystems, with large amounts of carbon stored in woody biomass and the soil. The average annual NEE, GPP and Reco values over the measurement period were -904, 2379 and 1475 g C m(-2) (forest plantations), -189, 906 and 715 g C m(-2) (arable systems) and -212, 1653 and 1444 g C m(-2) (grasslands), respectively. The average RMSE values were 3.8 g C m(-2) (forest plantations), 0.12 g C m(-2) (arable systems) and 0.21 g C m(-2) (grasslands). When these models were run with climate change scenarios to 2060, predictions show that all three ecosystems will continue to operate as carbon sinks. Further, climate change may decrease the carbon sink strength in the forest plantations by up to 50%. This study supports the use of the DNDC model as a valid tool to predict the consequences of climate change on NEE from different ecosystems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Annual and Semi-Annual Temperature Oscillations in the Upper Mesosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Niciejewski, R. J.; Killeen, T. L.

1995-01-01

Fourier transform spectrometer observations of the mesosphere have been performed at the University of Michigan (latitude: 42.5 N) on a long term basis. A database of near infrared Meinel hydroxyl spectra has been accumulated from which rotational temperatures have been determined. Harmonic analysis of one-day averaged temperatures for the period 1992.0 to 1994.5 has shown a distinct annual and semi-annual variation. Subsequent fitting of a five term periodic function characterizing the annual and semi-annual temperature oscillations to the daily averaged temperatures was performed. The resultant mean temperature and the amplitudes and phases of the annual and semi-annual variations are shown to coincide with an emission height slightly above 85 km which is consistent with the mean rocket derived altitude for peak nocturnal hydroxyl emission.

Evaluation of the solar conditions for the acquisitions of energy from renewable sources on the base of Sosnowiec city (Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarapata, Sonia

2014-09-01

The country's energy security risk, as well as a desire to protect the environment from the pollution and degradation which are the results of conventional fuels acquisition - these was a motivation for intensive researches on the use of renewable energy sources in eco - innovative installations. Solar radiation is one of the self - renewable energy sources which can be used both as a source of electricity and heat. The area of research is Sosnowiec city located in the south of Poland in the eastern part of Silesia voivodeship. The solar radiation data covering the years 2003 to 2013 was used. The intra - annual variability of daily averaged solar radiation hesitated in a wide range from 0.6 kWh/m2 (December) to 5.2 kWh/m2 (June). Day duration varies on average from 10 hours in January, November and December to 17 hours in May, June and July. Day occupies 56% of the 8767 hours in year. On average the largest amount of energy reached the analyzed area in July: 157 kWh/m2 (15% of the annual average), while the smallest in December: 18 kWh/m2 (less than 2% of the annual average). The 75% of the average annual total of energy falls on the period from 1st March to 31th August (spring - summer). The range of the annual solar radiation was determined by the minimum of 980 kWh/m2 and the maximum of 1094 kWh/m2. In Sosnowiec the average annual irradiation total on the horizontal surface amounts to 1052 kWh/m2 (2003 - 2013)

Machine Learning Predictions of a Multiresolution Climate Model Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Gemma J.; Lucas, Donald D.

2018-05-01

Statistical models of high-resolution climate models are useful for many purposes, including sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, but building them can be computationally prohibitive. We generated a unique multiresolution perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model. We use a novel application of a machine learning technique known as random forests to train a statistical model on the ensemble to make high-resolution model predictions of two important quantities: global mean top-of-atmosphere energy flux and precipitation. The random forests leverage cheaper low-resolution simulations, greatly reducing the number of high-resolution simulations required to train the statistical model. We demonstrate that high-resolution predictions of these quantities can be obtained by training on an ensemble that includes only a small number of high-resolution simulations. We also find that global annually averaged precipitation is more sensitive to resolution changes than to any of the model parameters considered.

Present-day Antarctic climatology of the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tzeng, Ren-Yow; Bromwich, David H.; Parish, Thomas R.

1993-01-01

The ability of the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 1 (CCM1) with R 15 resolution to simulate the present-day climate of Antarctica was evaluated using the five-year seasonal cycle output produced by the CCM1 and comparing the model results with observed horizontal syntheses and point data. The results showed that the CCM1 with R 15 resolution can simulate to some extent the dynamics of Antarctic climate on the synoptic scale as well as some mesoscale features. The model can also simulate the phase and the amplitude of the annual and semiannual variation of the temperature, sea level pressure, and zonally averaged zonal (E-W) wind. The main shortcomings of the CCM1 model are associated with the model's anomalously large precipitation amounts at high latitudes, due to the tendency of the scheme to suppress negative moisture values.

20 CFR 226.63 - Determining monthly compensation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... obtained by dividing the average annual wage for the indexing year by the average annual wage for the year... wage for 1951 is used. (2) Indexing year defined. The indexing year is the second year before the year...

20 CFR 226.63 - Determining monthly compensation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... obtained by dividing the average annual wage for the indexing year by the average annual wage for the year... wage for 1951 is used. (2) Indexing year defined. The indexing year is the second year before the year...

20 CFR 226.63 - Determining monthly compensation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... obtained by dividing the average annual wage for the indexing year by the average annual wage for the year... wage for 1951 is used. (2) Indexing year defined. The indexing year is the second year before the year...

20 CFR 226.63 - Determining monthly compensation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... obtained by dividing the average annual wage for the indexing year by the average annual wage for the year... wage for 1951 is used. (2) Indexing year defined. The indexing year is the second year before the year...

20 CFR 226.63 - Determining monthly compensation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... obtained by dividing the average annual wage for the indexing year by the average annual wage for the year... wage for 1951 is used. (2) Indexing year defined. The indexing year is the second year before the year...

Schedule of average annual equipment ownership expense

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-03-06

The "Schedule of Average Annual Equipment Ownership Expense" is designed for use on Force Account bills of Contractors performing work for the Illinois Department of Transportation and local government agencies who choose to adopt these rates. This s...

The Great Basin Canada goose in southcentral Washington: A 40-year nesting history

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fitzner, R.E.; Rickard, W.H.; Eberhardt, L.E.

1991-04-01

Overall, the nesting population of Great Basin Canada geese (Branta canadensis moffitti) on the Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State is doing well and appears to be increasing. The average annual total nests for the period 1981 through 1990 was 215 nests, which is slightly above the average reported for the period 1950 through 1970. The nesting population has shifted its nucleus from upriver islands (1--10) to the lower river islands (11--20) with over 70% of the present-day nesting occurring on Islands 17, 18, 19, 20. The annual percent-successful nests from 1981 through 1990 was 80%. This is above themore » 71% reported for 1950 to 1970, but is below the 82% reported for 1971 to 1980. Average annual clutch size for 1981 to 1990 was 6.05, which is above the 1971-to-1980 average of 5.6 and the 1950-to-70 average of 5.5. Next desertions for 1981 to 1990 averaged 8%. This rate is well below the 14% reported for 1950 to 1970. Predators were responsible for an annual predation rate of 9% from 1981 to 1990. This is below the 1950-to-1970 annual average predation rate of 14%. Flooding losses to nests were low during the 1980s, except for 1989 and 1990 when 6% and 9% of the total nests, respectively, were destroyed by flooding. 9 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.« less

What is the effect of LiDAR-derived DEM resolution on large-scale watershed model results?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ping Yang; Daniel B. Ames; Andre Fonseca

This paper examines the effect of raster cell size on hydrographic feature extraction and hydrological modeling using LiDAR derived DEMs. LiDAR datasets for three experimental watersheds were converted to DEMs at various cell sizes. Watershed boundaries and stream networks were delineated from each DEM and were compared to reference data. Hydrological simulations were conducted and the outputs were compared. Smaller cell size DEMs consistently resulted in less difference between DEM-delineated features and reference data. However, minor differences been found between streamflow simulations resulted for a lumped watershed model run at daily simulations aggregated at an annual average. These findings indicatemore » that while higher resolution DEM grids may result in more accurate representation of terrain characteristics, such variations do not necessarily improve watershed scale simulation modeling. Hence the additional expense of generating high resolution DEM's for the purpose of watershed modeling at daily or longer time steps may not be warranted.« less

Simulation of streamflow in small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, R.S.; Norris, J.M.

1989-01-01

Coal mining operations in northwestern Colorado commonly are located in areas that have minimal available water-resource information. Drainage-basin models can be a method for extending water-resource information to include periods for which there are no records or to transfer the information to areas that have no streamflow-gaging stations. To evaluate the magnitude and variability of the components of the water balance in the small drainage basins monitored, and to provide some method for transfer of hydrologic data, the U.S. Geological Survey 's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was used for small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin to simulate daily mean streamflow using daily precipitation and air-temperature data. The study area was divided into three hydrologic regions, and in each of these regions, three drainage basins were monitored. Two of the drainage basins in each region were used to calibrate the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The model was not calibrated for the third drainage basin in each region; instead, parameter values were transferred from the model that was calibrated for the two drainage basins. For all of the drainage basins except one, period of record used for calibration and verification included water years 1976-81. Simulated annual volumes of streamflow for drainage basins used in calibration compared well with observed values; individual hydrographs indicated timing differences between the observed and simulated daily mean streamflow. Observed and simulated annual average streamflows compared well for the periods of record, but values of simulated high and low streamflows were different than observed values. Similar results were obtained when calibrated model parameter values were transferred to drainage basins that were uncalibrated. (USGS)

Implementation of a national external quality assessment program for medical laboratories in Burkina Faso: challenges, lessons learned, and perspectives.

PubMed

Sakandé, Jean; Nikièma, Abdoulaye; Kabré, Elie; Sawadogo, Charles; Nacoulma, Eric W; Sanou, Mamadou; Sangaré, Lassana; Traoré-Ouédraogo, Rasmata; Sawadogo, Mamadou; Gershy-Damet, Guy Michel

2014-02-01

The National External Quality Assessment (NEQA) program of Burkina Faso is a proficiency testing program mandatory for all laboratories in the country since 2006. The program runs two cycles per year and covers all areas of laboratories. All panels were validated by the expert committee before dispatch under optimal storage and transport conditions to participating laboratories along with report forms. Performance in the last 5 years varied by panel, with average annual performance of bacteriology panels for all laboratories rising from 75% in 2006 to 81% in 2010 and with a best average performance of 87% in 2007 and 2008. During the same period, malaria microscopy performance varied from 85% to 94%, with a best average performance of 94% in 2010; chemistry performance increased from 87% to 94%, with a best average annual performance of 97% in 2009. Hematology showed more variation in performance, ranging from 61% to 86%, with a best annual average performance of 90% in 2008. Average annual performance for immunology varied less between 2006 and 2010, recording 97%, 90%, and 95%. Except for malaria microscopy, annual performances for enrolled panels varied substantially from year to year, indicating some difficulty in maintaining consistency in quality. The main challenges of the NEQA program observed between 2006 to 2010 were funding, sourcing, and safe transportation of quality panels to all laboratories countrywide.

Topographically Driven Lateral Water Fluxes and Their Influence on Carbon Assimilation of a Black Spruce Ecosystem.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govind, A.; Chen, J. M.; Margolis, H.; Bernier, P. Y.

2006-12-01

Current estimates of ecophysiological indicators overlook the effects of topographically-driven lateral flow of soil water. We hypothesize that topographically driven lateral water flows over the landscape have significant influence on the terrestrial carbon cycle. To this end, we simulated the hydrological controls on carbon cycle processes in a black spruce forest in central Quebec, Canada, using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) at a daily time step. We accounted for lateral surface and subsurface flows in BEPS by incorporating a distributed, process-oriented hydrological procedure. The results show that modeled dynamics of ecophysiological processes such as evapotranspiration (ET) and photosynthesis (GPP) are consistent with the spatial variation of land cover, topography, soil texture, and leaf area index. Simulated ET and GPP averaged within the footprint of an eddy covariance tower in the watershed agree well with flux measurements with R2=0.77 and 0.83 for ET and GPP, respectively. For ET simulation, much of the remaining discrepancies are found in the winter when the model underestimates snow sublimation. For GPP, there is an underestimation in the fall coinciding with a mid growing season drought, showing the high sensitivity of the model to the soil water status. The key processes controlling primary production were hydraulic limitations for water transfer from soil, roots, stems and leaves through stomatal conductance. Therefore, a further understanding of soil water dynamics is warranted. Comparison with the soil water content of the footprint- averaged unsaturated zone showed that the model captured the annual trend. We also simulated the variations in the water table as well as the mid growing season drought, with a reasonable accuracy(R2=0.68). The foot print average water budget reveals that the annual precipitation of 835mm is partitioned into 282mm of ET, 541 mm of subsurface runoff, and 6 mm of storage change. To test the influence of topographically driven lateral water flow on the carbon cycle, we made three hydrological modeling scenarios viz. 1) explicit hydrological simulation including lateral water routing, 2) bucket model with implicit runoff calculations and 3) a control run, where the lateral water flow was turned off in the model. Bucket model overestimated GPP as much as 25% as opposed to explicit simulations because there was no topographical constrain on runoff. Flat areas dominated with mineral soils shows the highest overestimation because of an increase in stomatal conductance. Control simulation, on the other hand, underestimated GPP as much as 15% as opposed to explicit routing because of rapid soil saturation, which decreases stomatal conductance. These results suggest that lateral water flow does play a significant role in the terrestrial carbon cycle and should be accounted for in ecological models. For details please see http://ajit.govind.googlepages.com/agu2006

25 CFR 30.116 - If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other methods may it use to...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... participated in the assessment. (b) Method B—Uniform Averaging Procedure. A school may use uniform averaging... 25 Indians 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable... Adequate Yearly Progress § 30.116 If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other...

25 CFR 30.116 - If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other methods may it use to...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... participated in the assessment. (b) Method B—Uniform Averaging Procedure. A school may use uniform averaging... 25 Indians 1 2012-04-01 2011-04-01 true If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable... Adequate Yearly Progress § 30.116 If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other...

25 CFR 30.116 - If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other methods may it use to...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... participated in the assessment. (b) Method B—Uniform Averaging Procedure. A school may use uniform averaging... 25 Indians 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable... Adequate Yearly Progress § 30.116 If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other...

25 CFR 30.116 - If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other methods may it use to...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... participated in the assessment. (b) Method B—Uniform Averaging Procedure. A school may use uniform averaging... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable... Adequate Yearly Progress § 30.116 If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other...

25 CFR 30.116 - If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other methods may it use to...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... participated in the assessment. (b) Method B—Uniform Averaging Procedure. A school may use uniform averaging... 25 Indians 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable... Adequate Yearly Progress § 30.116 If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other...

Satellite derived estimates of forest leaf area index in South-west Western Australia are not tightly coupled to inter-annual variations in rainfall: implications for groundwater decline in a drying climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smettem, Keith; Waring, Richard; Callow, Nik; Wilson, Melissa; Mu, Qiaozhen

2013-04-01

There is increasing concern that widespread forest decline could occur in regions of the world where droughts are predicted to increase in frequency and severity as a result of climate change. Ecological optimality proposes that the long term average canopy size of undisturbed perennial vegetation is tightly coupled to climate. The average annual leaf area index (LAI) is an indicator of canopy cover and the difference between the annual maximum and minimum LAI is an indicator of annual leaf turnover. In this study we analysed satellite-derived estimates of monthly LAI across forested coastal catchments of South-west Western Australia over a 12 year period (2000-2011) that included the driest year on record for the last 60 years. We observed that over the 12 year study period, the spatial pattern of average annual satellite-derived LAI values was linearly related to mean annual rainfall. However, inter-annual changes to LAI in response to changes in annual rainfall were far less than expected from the long-term LAI-rainfall trend. This buffered response was investigated using a physiological growth model and attributed to availability of deep soil moisture and/or groundwater storage. The maintenance of high LAIs may be linked to a long term decline in areal average underground water storage storage and diminished summer flows, with a trend towards more ephemeral flow regimes.

Estimation of annual average daily traffic for off-system roads in Florida

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-07-28

Estimation of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is extremely important in traffic planning and operations for the state departments of transportation (DOTs), because AADT provides information for the planning of new road construction, determination...

Population viability analysis to identify management priorities for reintroduced elk in the Cumberland Mountains, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kindall, J.L.; Muller, L.I.; Clark, J.D.; Lupardus, J.L.; Murrow, J.L.

2011-01-01

We used an individual-based population model to perform a viability analysis to simulate population growth (λ) of 167 elk (Cervus elaphus manitobensis; 71 male and 96 female) released in the Cumberland Mountains, Tennessee, to estimate sustainability (i.e., λ > 1.0) and identify the most appropriate options for managing elk restoration. We transported elk from Elk Island National Park, Alberta, Canada, and from Land Between the Lakes, Kentucky, and reintroduced them beginning in December 2000 and ending in February 2003. We estimated annual survival rates for 156 radio-collared elk from December 2000 until November 2004. We used data from a nearby elk herd in Great Smoky Mountains National Park to simulate pessimistic and optimistic recruitment and performed population viability analyses to evaluate sustainability over a 25-year period. Annual survival averaged 0.799 (Total SE = 0.023). The primary identifiable sources of mortality were poaching, disease from meningeal worm (Parelaphostrongylus tenuis), and accidents (environmental causes and unintentional harvest). Population growth given pessimistic recruitment rates averaged 0.895 over 25 years (0.955 in year 1 to 0.880 in year 25); population growth was not sustainable in 100% of the runs. With the most optimistic estimates of recruitment, mean λ increased to 0.967 (1.038 in year 1 to 0.956 in year 25) with 99.6% of the runs failing to be sustainable. We suggest that further translocation efforts to increase herd size will be ineffective unless survival rates are increased in the Cumberland Mountains.

Improved vegetation parameterization for hydrological model and assessment of land cover change impacts on flow regime of the Upper Bhima basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohaideen, M. M. Diwan; Varija, K.

2018-05-01

This study investigates the potential and applicability of variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model to simulate different hydrological components of the Upper Bhima basin under two different Land Use Land Cover (LULC) (the year 2000 and 2010) conditions. The total drainage area of the basin was discretized into 1694 grids of about 5.5 km by 5.5 km: accordingly the model parameters were calibrated at each grid level. Vegetation parameters for the model were prepared using temporal profile of Leaf Area Index (LAI) from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and LULC. This practice provides a methodological framework for the improved vegetation parameterization along with region-specific condition for the model simulation. The calibrated and validated model was run using the two LULC conditions separately with the same observed meteorological forcing (1996-2001) and soil data. The change in LULC has resulted to an increase in the average annual evapotranspiration over the basin by 7.8%, while the average annual surface runoff and baseflow decreased by 18.86 and 5.83%, respectively. The variability in hydrological components and the spatial variation of each component attributed to LULC were assessed at the basin grid level. It was observed that 80% of the basin grids showed an increase in evapotranspiration (ET) (maximum of 292 mm). While the majority of the grids showed a decrease in surface runoff and baseflow, some of the grids showed an increase (i.e. 21 and 15% of total grids—surface runoff and baseflow, respectively).

Simulation of seasonal anomalies of atmospheric circulation using coupled atmosphere-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolstykh, M. A.; Diansky, N. A.; Gusev, A. V.; Kiktev, D. B.

2014-03-01

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model intended for the simulation of coupled circulation at time scales up to a season is developed. The semi-Lagrangian atmospheric general circulation model of the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, SLAV, is coupled with the sigma model of ocean general circulation developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), INMOM. Using this coupled model, numerical experiments on ensemble modeling of the atmosphere and ocean circulation for up to 4 months are carried out using real initial data for all seasons of an annual cycle in 1989-2010. Results of these experiments are compared to the results of the SLAV model with the simple evolution of the sea surface temperature. A comparative analysis of seasonally averaged anomalies of atmospheric circulation shows prospects in applying the coupled model for forecasts. It is shown with the example of the El Niño phenomenon of 1997-1998 that the coupled model forecasts the seasonally averaged anomalies for the period of the nonstationary El Niño phase significantly better.

Effects of topography on simulated net primary productivity at landscape scale.

PubMed

Chen, X F; Chen, J M; An, S Q; Ju, W M

2007-11-01

Local topography significantly affects spatial variations of climatic variables and soil water movement in complex terrain. Therefore, the distribution and productivity of ecosystems are closely linked to topography. Using a coupled terrestrial carbon and hydrological model (BEPS-TerrainLab model), the topographic effects on the net primary productivity (NPP) are analyzed through four modelling experiments for a 5700 km(2) area in Baohe River basin, Shaanxi Province, northwest of China. The model was able to capture 81% of the variability in NPP estimated from tree rings, with a mean relative error of 3.1%. The average NPP in 2003 for the study area was 741 gCm(-2)yr(-1) from a model run including topographic effects on the distributions of climate variables and lateral flow of ground water. Topography has considerable effect on NPP, which peaks near 1350 m above the sea level. An elevation increase of 100 m above this level reduces the average annual NPP by about 25 gCm(-2). The terrain aspect gives rise to a NPP change of 5% for forests located below 1900 m as a result of its influence on incident solar radiation. For the whole study area, a simulation totally excluding topographic effects on the distributions of climatic variables and ground water movement overestimated the average NPP by 5%.

76 FR 79579 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans and Designation of Areas for Air Quality...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-22

... posting of the availability of the submittal on EPA's Adequacy Web site (at http://www.epa.gov/otaq... average annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour average ozone concentration), if it had a 1-hour design... ozone standard is attained when the three-year average of the annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour...

GIS Tools to Estimate Average Annual Daily Traffic

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-06-01

This project presents five tools that were created for a geographical information system to estimate Annual Average Daily : Traffic using linear regression. Three of the tools can be used to prepare spatial data for linear regression. One tool can be...

West Bank of the Mississippi River in the Vicinity of New Orleans, Louisiana (East of the Harvey Canal) Hurricane Protection Study. Technical Appendixes. Volume 2

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-08-01

ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, 30-YEAR NORMALS (1951-1980) A-I-3 A-I-2 MEAN MONTHLY AND ANNUAL TEMPERATURE , 30-YEAR NORMALS (1951-1980) A-I-4 A-1-3 AVERAGE ...Environmental Quality (DEQ). CLIMATE The climate of the area is humid si!btropicl. AMual average temperature in the project area is 68°F, with monthly...normal temperatures varying from 82’F in July to 531F in Januwry. Average annual precipitation over tae area is 63 inche!, maiying from a monthly

Tailoring Breast Cancer Screening Intervals by Breast Density and Risk for Women Aged 50 Years or Older: Collaborative Modeling of Screening Outcomes.

PubMed

Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Kerlikowske, Karla; Stout, Natasha K; Miglioretti, Diana L; Schechter, Clyde B; Ergun, Mehmet Ali; van den Broek, Jeroen J; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Sprague, Brian L; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T; Near, Aimee M; Gangnon, Ronald E; Hampton, John M; Chandler, Young; de Koning, Harry J; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S; Tosteson, Anna N A

2016-11-15

Biennial screening is generally recommended for average-risk women aged 50 to 74 years, but tailored screening may provide greater benefits. To estimate outcomes for various screening intervals after age 50 years based on breast density and risk for breast cancer. Collaborative simulation modeling using national incidence, breast density, and screening performance data. United States. Women aged 50 years or older with various combinations of breast density and relative risk (RR) of 1.0, 1.3, 2.0, or 4.0. Annual, biennial, or triennial digital mammography screening from ages 50 to 74 years (vs. no screening) and ages 65 to 74 years (vs. biennial digital mammography from ages 50 to 64 years). Lifetime breast cancer deaths, life expectancy and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), false-positive mammograms, benign biopsy results, overdiagnosis, cost-effectiveness, and ratio of false-positive results to breast cancer deaths averted. Screening benefits and overdiagnosis increase with breast density and RR. False-positive mammograms and benign results on biopsy decrease with increasing risk. Among women with fatty breasts or scattered fibroglandular density and an RR of 1.0 or 1.3, breast cancer deaths averted were similar for triennial versus biennial screening for both age groups (50 to 74 years, median of 3.4 to 5.1 vs. 4.1 to 6.5 deaths averted; 65 to 74 years, median of 1.5 to 2.1 vs. 1.8 to 2.6 deaths averted). Breast cancer deaths averted increased with annual versus biennial screening for women aged 50 to 74 years at all levels of breast density and an RR of 4.0, and those aged 65 to 74 years with heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts and an RR of 4.0. However, harms were almost 2-fold higher. Triennial screening for the average-risk subgroup and annual screening for the highest-risk subgroup cost less than $100 000 per QALY gained. Models did not consider women younger than 50 years, those with an RR less than 1, or other imaging methods. Average-risk women with low breast density undergoing triennial screening and higher-risk women with high breast density receiving annual screening will maintain a similar or better balance of benefits and harms than average-risk women receiving biennial screening. National Cancer Institute.

The role of long-range transport and domestic emissions in determining atmospheric secondary inorganic particle concentrations across the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieno, M.; Heal, M. R.; Hallsworth, S.; Famulari, D.; Doherty, R. M.; Dore, A. J.; Tang, Y. S.; Braban, C. F.; Leaver, D.; Sutton, M. A.; Reis, S.

2014-08-01

Surface concentrations of secondary inorganic particle components over the UK have been analysed for 2001-2010 using the EMEP4UK regional atmospheric chemistry transport model and evaluated against measurements. Gas/particle partitioning in the EMEP4UK model simulations used a bulk approach, which may lead to uncertainties in simulated secondary inorganic aerosol. However, model simulations were able to accurately represent both the long-term decadal surface concentrations of particle sulfate and nitrate and an episode in early 2003 of substantially elevated nitrate measured across the UK by the AGANet network. The latter was identified as consisting of three separate episodes, each of less than 1 month duration, in February, March and April. The primary cause of the elevated nitrate levels across the UK was meteorological: a persistent high-pressure system, whose varying location impacted the relative importance of transboundary versus domestic emissions. Whilst long-range transport dominated the elevated nitrate in February, in contrast it was domestic emissions that mainly contributed to the March episode, and for the April episode both domestic emissions and long-range transport contributed. A prolonged episode such as the one in early 2003 can have substantial impact on annual average concentrations. The episode led to annual concentration differences at the regional scale of similar magnitude to those driven by long-term changes in precursor emissions over the full decade investigated here. The results demonstrate that a substantial part of the UK, particularly the south and southeast, may be close to or exceeding annual mean limit values because of import of inorganic aerosol components from continental Europe under specific conditions. The results reinforce the importance of employing multiple year simulations in the assessment of emissions reduction scenarios on particulate matter concentrations and the need for international agreements to address the transboundary component of air pollution.

Simulation of climate change effects on streamflow, groundwater, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP in the Black Earth Creek Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Regan, R. Steven; Leaf, Andrew T.; Saad, David A.

2016-08-23

Potential future changes in air temperature drivers were consistently upward regardless of General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; thus, simulated stream temperatures are forecast to increase appreciably with future climate. However, the amount of temperature increase was variable. Such uncertainty is reflected in temperature model results, along with uncertainty in the groundwater/surface-water interaction itself. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 3 to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the upper reaches of Black Earth Creek and 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in reaches farther downstream. As with all forecasts that rely on projections of an unknowable future, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change given the underlying uncertainty.

National Economic Development Procedures Manual. Coastal Storm Damage and Erosion

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

study area is temperate with warm summers and moderate winters. The annual temperature averages approximately 53 degrees Fahrenheit (*F). On average ...January is the coolest month with a mean temperature of 32°F and July is the warmest month. The average annual precipitation is about 45 inches with...0704.0188 Public rooing burden for rhr$ LoIlecton of ,nformaton .s estma eO to average I hour oer resiorse including the time for resrewing inttuctiOn

EnviroAtlas - Biological nitrogen fixation in natural/semi-natural ecosystems by 12-digit HUC for the Conterminous United States, 2006

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This EnviroAtlas dataset contains data on the mean biological nitrogen fixation in natural/semi-natural ecosystems per 12-digit Hydrologic Unit (HUC) in 2006. Biological N fixation (BNF) in natural/semi-natural ecosystems was estimated using a correlation with actual evapotranspiration (AET). This correlation is based on a global meta-analysis of BNF in natural/semi-natural ecosystems (Cleveland et al. 1999). AET estimates for 2006 were calculated using a regression equation describing the correlation of AET with climate (average annual daily temperature, average annual minimum daily temperature, average annual maximum daily temperature, and annual precipitation) and land use/land cover variables in the conterminous US (Sanford and Selnick 2013). Data describing annual average minimum and maximum daily temperatures and total precipitation for 2006 were acquired from the PRISM climate dataset (http://prism.oregonstate.edu). Average annual climate data were then calculated for individual 12-digit USGS Hydrologic Unit Codes (HUC12s; http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/huc.html; 22 March 2011 release) using the Zonal Statistics tool in ArcMap 10.0. AET for individual HUC12s was estimated using equations described in Sanford and Selnick (2013). BNF in natural/semi-natural ecosystems within individual HUC12s was modeled with an equation describing the statistical relationship between BNF (kg N ha-1 yr-1) and actual evapotranspiration (AET; cm yr-1) and scaled to the proportion

Conceptual and numerical models of the glacial aquifer system north of Aberdeen, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marini, Katrina A.; Hoogestraat, Galen K.; Aurand, Katherine R.; Putnam, Larry D.

2012-01-01

This U.S. Geological Survey report documents a conceptual and numerical model of the glacial aquifer system north of Aberdeen, South Dakota, that can be used to evaluate and manage the city of Aberdeen's water resources. The glacial aquifer system in the model area includes the Elm, Middle James, and Deep James aquifers, with intervening confining units composed of glacial till. The Elm aquifer ranged in thickness from less than 1 to about 95 feet (ft), with an average thickness of about 24 ft; the Middle James aquifer ranged in thickness from less than 1 to 91 ft, with an average thickness of 13 ft; and the Deep James aquifer ranged in thickness from less than 1 to 165 ft, with an average thickness of 23 ft. The confining units between the aquifers consisted of glacial till and ranged in thickness from 0 to 280 ft. The general direction of groundwater flow in the Elm aquifer in the model area was from northwest to southeast following the topography. Groundwater flow in the Middle James aquifer was to the southeast. Sparse data indicated a fairly flat potentiometric surface for the Deep James aquifer. Horizontal hydraulic conductivity for the Elm aquifer determined from aquifer tests ranged from 97 to 418 feet per day (ft/d), and a confined storage coefficient was determined to be 2.4x10-5. Estimates of the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the sediments separating the Elm River from the Elm aquifer, determined from the analysis of temperature gradients, ranged from 0.14 to 2.48 ft/d. Average annual precipitation in the model area was 19.6 inches per year (in/yr), and agriculture was the primary land use. Recharge to the Elm aquifer was by infiltration of precipitation through overlying outwash, lake sediments, and glacial till. The annual recharge for the model area, calculated by using a soil-water-balance method for water year (WY) 1975-2009, ranged from 0.028 inch in WY 1980 to 4.52 inches in WY 1986, with a mean of 1.56 inches. The annual potential evapotranspiration, calculated in soil-water-balance analysis, ranged from 21.8 inches in WY 1983 to 27.0 inches in WY 1985, with a mean of 24.6 inches. Water use from the glacial aquifer system primarily was from the Elm aquifer for irrigation, municipal, and suburban water supplies, and the annual rate ranged from 1.0 to 2.4 cubic feet per second (ft3/s). The MODFLOW-2005 numerical model represented the Elm aquifer, the Middle James aquifer, and the Deep James aquifer with model layers 1-3 respectively separated by confining layers 1-2 respectively. Groundwater flow was simulated with 75 stress periods beginning October 1, 1974, and ending September 30, 2009. Model grid spacing was 200 by 200 ft and boundaries were represented by specified-head boundaries and no-flow boundaries. The model used parameter estimation that focused on minimizing the difference between 954 observed and simulated hydraulic heads for 135 wells. Calibrated mean horizontal hydraulic conductivity values for model layers 1-3 were 94, 41, and 30 ft/d respectively. Vertical hydraulic conductivity values for confining layers 1 and 2 were 0.0002 and 0.0003 ft/d, respectively. Calibrated specific yield for model layer 1was 0.1 and specific storage ranged from 0.0003 to 0.0005 per foot. Calibrated mean recharge rates ranged from 2.5 in/yr where glacial till thickness was less than 10 ft to 0.8 in/yr where glacial till thickness was greater than 30 ft. Calibrated mean annual evapotranspiration rate was 8.8 in/yr. Simulated net streamflow gain from model layer 1 was 3.1 ft3/s.

Use of a watershed-modeling approach to assess hydrologic effects of urbanization, North Fork Pheasant Branch basin near Middleton, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steuer, Jeffrey J.; Hunt, R.J.

2001-01-01

The North Fork Pheasant Branch Basin in Dane County, Wisconsin is expected to undergo development. There are concerns that development will adversely affect water resources with increased flood peaks, increased runoff volumes, and increased pollutant loads. To provide a scientific basis for evaluating the hydrologic system response to development the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to model the upper Pheasant Branch Creek watershed with an emphasis on the North Fork Basin. The upper Pheasant Branch Creek (18.3 mi2; 11,700 acres) Basin was represented with 21 Hydrologic Response Units (daily time step) and 50 flow planes (5-minute time steps). Precipitation data from the basin outlet streamflow-gaging station located at Highway 12 and temperature data from a nearby airport were used to drive the model. Continuous discharge records at three gaging stations were used for model calibration. To qualitatively assess model representation of small subbasins, periodic reconnaissance, often including a depth measurement, was made after precipitation to determine the occurrence of flow in ditches and channels from small subbasins. As a further effort to verify the model on a small subbasin scale, continuous-stage sensors (15-minute intervals) measured depth at the outlets of three small subbasins (500 to 1,200 acres). Average annual precipitation for the simulation period from 1993 to 1998 was 35.2 inches. The model simulations showed that, on average, 23.9 inches were intercepted by vegetation, or lost to evapotranspiration, 6.0 inches were infiltrated and moved to the regional ground-water system, and 4.8 inches contributed to the upper Pheasant Branch streamflow. The largest runoff event during the calibration interval was in July 1993 (746 ft3/sec; with a recurrence interval of approximately 25 years). Resulting recharge rates from the calibrated model were subsequently used as input into a ground-water-flow model. Average annual recharge varied spatially from 2.3 inches per year in the highly impervious commercial/industrial area to 9.7 inches per year in the undeveloped North Fork Basin with an average overall recharge rate of 8.1 inches per year. Two development scenarios were examined to assess changes in water-budget fluxes. In scenario A, when development was predominantly low-density residential with 5 to 10 percent commercial development along principal roadways, mean annual streamflow increased by 53 percent, overland flow increased by 84 percent, base flow decreased by 15 percent and annual recharge to the regional ground-water system was reduced by 10 percent. In development scenario B, the entire North Fork and intervening area basins contained 50 percent commercial and 50 percent medium density residential land use. Annual storm runoff increased by over 450 percent. The ground-water model for the Pheasant Branch that used the scenario B recharge rates simulated a lowered water table with zero base flow and that flow from Frederick Springs would be reduced 26 percent from present-day (1993?98) conditions.An additional example application of the model evaluated locations of flood detention ponds and potential recharge areas that may mitigate the changes in flood peaks and ground-water recharge resulting from urbanization. From February 1998 through July 1998, water-quality samples were collected by use of stage-activated automated samplers. Median suspended- sediment concentrations were similar between the North and South Fork Basins (194 and 242 mg/L, respectively); however, for other constituents, North Fork values were considerably higher: median phosphorus concentrations by 4 times (1.5 and 0.35 mg/L), median ammonia concentrations by 13 times (1.9 and 0.14 mg/L), and the phosphorus-to-sediment ratio by more than 6 times (21 and 3.1 mg/g).

Modeling sustainable reuse of nitrogen-laden wastewater by poplar.

PubMed

Wang, Yusong; Licht, Louis; Just, Craig

2016-01-01

Numerical modeling was used to simulate the leaching of nitrogen (N) to groundwater as a consequence of irrigating food processing wastewater onto grass and poplar under various management scenarios. Under current management practices for a large food processor, a simulated annual N loading of 540 kg ha(-1) yielded 93 kg ha(-1) of N leaching for grass and no N leaching for poplar during the growing season. Increasing the annual growing season N loading to approximately 1,550 kg ha(-1) for poplar only, using "weekly", "daily" and "calculated" irrigation scenarios, yielded N leaching of 17 kg ha(-1), 6 kg ha(-1), and 4 kg ha(-1), respectively. Constraining the simulated irrigation schedule by the current onsite wastewater storage capacity of approximately 757 megaliters (Ml) yielded N leaching of 146 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) while storage capacity scenarios of 3,024 and 4,536 Ml yielded N leaching of 65 and 13 kg ha(-1) yr(-1), respectively, for a loading of 1,550 kg ha(-1) yr(-1). Further constraining the model by the current wastewater storage volume and the available land area (approximately 1,000 hectares) required a "diverse" irrigation schedule that was predicted to leach a weighted average of 13 kg-N ha(-1) yr(-1) when dosed with 1,063 kg-N ha(-1) yr(-1).

A predictive analysis of CO2 emissions, environmental policy stringency, and economic growth in China.

PubMed

Ahmed, Khalid; Ahmed, Sidrah

2018-03-28

This study takes environmental policy stringency and economic activity as the controlling variables and forecasts the CO 2 emissions in China up to 2022. In doing so, an application of corrected grey model with convolution is used over the annual time series data between 1990 and 2012. The simulation results show that (1) between 2012 and 2022, CO 2 emissions in China is expected to increase at an average rate of 17.46% annually, raising the emissions intensity from 7.04 in 2012 to 25.461 metric tons per capita by 2022; (2) stringent environmental policies reduce CO 2 emissions-whereas, GDP tends to increase the emissions intensity in China; (3) stringent environmental policies are found to have a negative impact on GDP in China. Based on the empirical findings, the study also provides some policy suggestions to reduce emissions intensity in China.

Environmental Influences in the Simulation of a Solar Space Heating System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-01-01

this simulation an optimum collector size was determined from the energy requirements given by each model and a comparison made between the...Solar Collector Cross Section .. ............... 26 4. Solar System Schematic. .. .................. 31 5. Contributions to Annual Energy Cost...40 6. House Size I Annual Energy Cost. ....... ........ 46 7. House Size II Annual Energy Cost .. ..... ......... 47 8. House Size III Annual

Benefits of increasing transpiration efficiency in wheat under elevated CO2 for rainfed regions.

PubMed

Christy, Brendan; Tausz-Posch, Sabine; Tausz, Michael; Richards, Richard; Rebetzke, Greg; Condon, Anthony; McLean, Terry; Fitzgerald, Glenn; Bourgault, Maryse; O'Leary, Garry

2018-05-01

Higher transpiration efficiency (TE) has been proposed as a mechanism to increase crop yields in dry environments where water availability usually limits yield. The application of a coupled radiation and TE simulation model shows wheat yield advantage of a high-TE cultivar (cv. Drysdale) over its almost identical low-TE parent line (Hartog), from about -7 to 558 kg/ha (mean 187 kg/ha) over the rainfed cropping region in Australia (221-1,351 mm annual rainfall), under the present-day climate. The smallest absolute yield response occurred in the more extreme drier and wetter areas of the wheat belt. However, under elevated CO 2 conditions, the response of Drysdale was much greater overall, ranging from 51 to 886 kg/ha (mean 284 kg/ha) with the greatest response in the higher rainfall areas. Changes in simulated TE under elevated CO 2 conditions are seen across Australia with notable increased areas of higher TE under a drier climate in Western Australia, Queensland and parts of New South Wales and Victoria. This improved efficiency is subtly deceptive, with highest yields not necessarily directly correlated with highest TE. Nevertheless, the advantage of Drysdale over Hartog is clear with the benefit of the trait advantage attributed to TE ranging from 102% to 118% (mean 109%). The potential annual cost-benefits of this increased genetic TE trait across the wheat growing areas of Australia (5 year average of area planted to wheat) totaled AUD 631 MIL (5-year average wheat price of AUD/260 t) with an average of 187 kg/ha under the present climate. The benefit to an individual farmer will depend on location but elevated CO 2 raises this nation-wide benefit to AUD 796 MIL in a 2°C warmer climate, slightly lower (AUD 715 MIL) if rainfall is also reduced by 20%. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A comparison of renewable energy technologies using two simulation softwares: HOMER and RETScreen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramli, Mohd Sufian; Wahid, Siti Sufiah Abd; Hassan, Khairul Kamarudin

2017-08-01

This paper concerns on modelling renewable energy technologies including PV standalone system (PVSS) and wind standalone system (WSS) as well as PV-wind hybrid system (PVWHS). To evaluate the performance of all power system configurations in term of economic analysis and optimization, simulation tools called HOMER and RETScreen are used in this paper. HOMER energy modeling software is a powerful tool for designing and analyzing hybrid power systems, which contains a mix of conventional generators, wind turbines, solar photovoltaic's, hydropower, batteries, and other inputs. RETScreen uses a Microsoft Excel-based spreadsheet model that consists of a set of workbooks which calculates the annual average energy flows with adjustment factors to account for temporal effects such as solar-load coincidence. Sizes of equipments are calculated and inserted as inputs to HOMER and RETScreen. The result obtained are analyzed and discussed. The cost per kWh to generate electricity using the PVSS system to supply the average demand of 8.4 kWh/day ranges between RM 1.953/kWh to RM 3.872/kWh. It has been found that the PVSS gives the lowest cost of energy compared to the other proposed two technologies that have been simulated by using HOMER and RETScreen.

The Effects of Lightning NO(x) Production during the July 21 EULINOX Storm studied with a 3-D Cloud-scale Chemical Transport Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, Lesley E.; Pickering, Kenneth E.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Huntrieser, Heidi; Schumann, Ulrich

2006-01-01

The July 21,1998 thunderstonn observed during the European Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Project (EULINOX) project was simulated using the three-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The simulation successfully reproduced a number of observed storm features including the splitting of the original cell into a southern cell which developed supercell characteristics, and a northern cell which became multicellular. Output from the GCE simulation was used to drive an offline cloud-scale chemical transport model which calculates tracer transport and includes a parameterization of lightning NO(x) production which uses observed flash rates as input. Estimates of lightning NO(x) production were deduced by assuming various values of production per intracloud and production per cloud-to-ground flash and comparing the results with in-cloud aircraft observations. The assumption that both types of flashes produce 360 moles of NO per flash on average compared most favorably with column mass and probability distribution functions calculated from observations. This assumed production per flash corresponds to a global annual lightning NOx source of 7 Tg N per yr. Chemical reactions were included in the model to evaluate the impact of lightning NO(x), on ozone. During the storm, the inclusion of lightning NOx in the model results in a small loss of ozone (on average less than 4 ppbv) at all model levels. Simulations of the chemical environment in the 24 hours following the storm show on average a small increase in the net production of ozone at most levels resulting from lightning NO(x), maximizing at approximately 5 ppbv per day at 5.5 km. Between 8 and 10.5 km, lightning NO(x) causes decreased net ozone production.

Effects of lightning NOx production during the 21 July European Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Project storm studied with a three-dimensional cloud-scale chemical transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ott, Lesley E.; Pickering, Kenneth E.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Huntrieser, Heidi; Schumann, Ulrich

2007-03-01

The 21 July 1998 thunderstorm observed during the European Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Project (EULINOX) project was simulated using the three-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The simulation successfully reproduced a number of observed storm features including the splitting of the original cell into a southern cell which developed supercell characteristics and a northern cell which became multicellular. Output from the GCE simulation was used to drive an offline cloud-scale chemical transport model which calculates tracer transport and includes a parameterization of lightning NOx production which uses observed flash rates as input. Estimates of lightning NOx production were deduced by assuming various values of production per intracloud and production per cloud-to-ground flash and comparing the results with in-cloud aircraft observations. The assumption that both types of flashes produce 360 moles of NO per flash on average compared most favorably with column mass and probability distribution functions calculated from observations. This assumed production per flash corresponds to a global annual lightning NOx source of 7 Tg N yr-1. Chemical reactions were included in the model to evaluate the impact of lightning NOx on ozone. During the storm, the inclusion of lightning NOx in the model results in a small loss of ozone (on average less than 4 ppbv) at all model levels. Simulations of the chemical environment in the 24 hours following the storm show on average a small increase in the net production of ozone at most levels resulting from lightning NOx, maximizing at approximately 5 ppbv day-1 at 5.5 km. Between 8 and 10.5 km, lightning NOx causes decreased net ozone production.

Simulation of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific based on CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Haibo; Zhou, Weican; Zhao, Haikun

2017-09-01

Based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models, the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the summers of 1965-2005 over the western North Pacific (WNP) is simulated by a TC dynamically downscaling system. In consideration of diversity among climate models, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and equal-weighed model averaging (EMA) methods are applied to produce the ensemble large-scale environmental factors of the CMIP5 model outputs. The environmental factors generated by BMA and EMA methods are compared, as well as the corresponding TC simulations by the downscaling system. Results indicate that BMA method shows a significant advantage over the EMA. In addition, impacts of model selections on BMA method are examined. To each factor, ten models with better performance are selected from 30 CMIP5 models and then conduct BMA, respectively. As a consequence, the ensemble environmental factors and simulated TC activity are similar with the results from the 30 models' BMA, which verifies the BMA method can afford corresponding weight for each model in the ensemble based on the model's predictive skill. Thereby, the existence of poor performance models will not particularly affect the BMA effectiveness and the ensemble outcomes are improved. Finally, based upon the BMA method and downscaling system, we analyze the sensitivity of TC activity to three important environmental factors, i.e., sea surface temperature (SST), large-scale steering flow, and vertical wind shear. Among three factors, SST and large-scale steering flow greatly affect TC tracks, while average intensity distribution is sensitive to all three environmental factors. Moreover, SST and vertical wind shear jointly play a critical role in the inter-annual variability of TC lifetime maximum intensity and frequency of intense TCs.

Analysis of the solar radiation data for Beer Sheva, Israel, and its environs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kudish, A.I.; Ianetz, A.

The solar radiation climate of Beer Sheva, Israel, is reported upon in detail. The database utilized in this analysis consisted of global radiation on a horizontal surface, normal incidence beam radiation, and global radiation on a south-facing surface tilted at 40{degree}. Monthly-average hourly and daily values are reported for each of these three types of measured radiations, together with the calculated monthly-average daily values for the components of the global radiation, viz. the horizontal beam and diffuse radiations. The monthly-average hourly and daily clearness index values have also been calculated and analyzed. Monthly-average daily frequency distributions of the clearness indexmore » values are reported for each month. The solar radiation climate of Beer Sheva has also been compared to those reported for a number of countries in this region. The annual-average daily global radiation incident on a horizontal surface is 18.91 MG/m{sup 2} and that for normal incidence beam radiation is 21.17 MG/m{sup 2}. The annual-average daily fraction of the horizontal global radiation that is beam is 0.72. The annual-average daily value for the clearness index is 0.587 and the average frequency of clear days annually is 58.6%. The authors conclude, based upon the above analysis, that Beer Sheva and its environs are characterized by relatively high, average-daily irradiation rates, both global and beam, and a relatively high frequency of clear days.« less

Subsurface recharge to the Tesuque aquifer system from selected drainage basins along the western side of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains near Santa Fe, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wasiolek, Maryann

1995-01-01

Water budgets developed for basins of five streams draining the western side of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in northern New Mexico indicate that subsurface inflow along the mountain front is recharging the Tesuque aquifer system of the Espanola Basin. Approximately 14,700 acre-feet of water per year, or 12.7 percent of average annual precipitation over the mountains, is calculated to leave the mountain block and enter the basin as subsurface recharge from the drainage basins of the Rio Nambe, Rio en Medio, Tesuque Creek, Little Tesuque Creek, and Santa Fe River. About 5,520 acre- feet per year, or about 12 percent of average annual precipitation, is calculated to enter from the Rio Nambe drainage basin; about 1,710 acre- feet per year, or about 15 percent of average annual precipitation, is calculated to enter from the Rio en Medio drainage basin; about 1,530 acre- feet, or about 10 percent of average annual precipi- tation, is calculated to enter from the Tesuque Creek drainage basin; about 1,790 acre-feet, or about 19 percent of average annual precipitation, is calculated to enter from the Little Tesuque Creek drainage basin; and about 4,170 acre-feet per year, or about 12 percent average annual precipitation, is calculated to enter from the Santa Fe River drainage basin. Calculated subsurface recharge values were used to define maximum fluxes permitted along the specified-flux boundary defining the mountain front of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains in a numerical computer model of the Tesuque aquifer system near Santa Fe, New Mexico.

Validation of a Ground-Water Flow Model of the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer Using Water-Level and Water-Use Data for 1998-2005 and Evaluation of Water-Use Scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gillip, Jonathan A.; Czarnecki, John B.

2009-01-01

A ground-water flow model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in eastern Arkansas, developed in 2003 to simulate the period of 1918-98, was validated with the addition of water-level and water-use data that extended the observation period to 2005. The original model (2003) was calibrated using water-level observations from 1972, 1982, 1992, and 1998, and water-use data through 1997. The original model subsequently was used to simulate water levels from 1999 to 2049 and showed that simulation of continued pumping at the 1997 water-use rate could not be sustained indefinitely without causing dry cells in the model. After publication of the original ground-water flow model, a total of 3,616 water-level observations from 698 locations measured during the period of 1998 to 2005 became available. Additionally, water-use data were compiled and used for the same period, totaling 290,005 discrete water-use values from 43,440 wells with as many as 39,169 wells pumping in any one year. Total pumping (which is primarily agricultural) for this 8-year period was about 2.3 trillion cubic feet of water and was distributed over approximately 10,340 square miles within the model area. An updated version of the original ground-water flow model was used to simulate the period of 1998-2005 with the additional water-level and water-use data. Water-level observations for 1998-2005 ranged from 74 to 293 feet above National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 across the model area. The maximum water-level residual (observed minus simulated water-level values) for the 3,616 water-level observations was 52 feet, the minimum water-level residual was 60 feet, the average annual root mean squared error was 8.2 feet, and the annual average absolute residual was 6.0 feet. A correlation coefficient value of 0.96 was calculated for the line of best fit for observed to simulated water levels for the combined 1998-2005 dataset, indicating a good fit to the data and an acceptable validation of the model. After the validation process was completed, additional ground-water model simulations were run to evaluate the response of the aquifer with the 2005 water-use rate applied through 2049 (scenario 1) and the 2005 water-use rate increased 2 percent annually until 2049 (scenario 2). Scenario 1 resulted in 779 dry cells (779 square miles) by 2049 and scenario 2 resulted in 2,910 dry cells (2,910 square miles) by 2049. In both scenarios, the dry cells are concentrated in the Grand Prairie area and Cache River area west of Crowleys Ridge. However, scenario 2 resulted in dry cells to the east of Crowleys Ridge as well. A simulation applying the 1997 water-use rate contained in the original ground-water flow model resulted in 401 dry cells (401 square miles) in the Grand Prairie and Cache River areas.

Simulating the effects of climatic variation on stem carbon accumulation of a ponderosa pine stand: comparison with annual growth increment data.

PubMed

Hunt, E R; Martin, F C; Running, S W

1991-01-01

Simulation models of ecosystem processes may be necessary to separate the long-term effects of climate change on forest productivity from the effects of year-to-year variations in climate. The objective of this study was to compare simulated annual stem growth with measured annual stem growth from 1930 to 1982 for a uniform stand of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl.) in Montana, USA. The model, FOREST-BGC, was used to simulate growth assuming leaf area index (LAI) was either constant or increasing. The measured stem annual growth increased exponentially over time; the differences between the simulated and measured stem carbon accumulations were not large. Growth trends were removed from both the measured and simulated annual increments of stem carbon to enhance the year-to-year variations in growth resulting from climate. The detrended increments from the increasing LAI simulation fit the detrended increments of the stand data over time with an R(2) of 0.47; the R(2) increased to 0.65 when the previous year's simulated detrended increment was included with the current year's simulated increment to account for autocorrelation. Stepwise multiple linear regression of the detrended increments of the stand data versus monthly meteorological variables had an R(2) of 0.37, and the R(2) increased to 0.47 when the previous year's meteorological data were included to account for autocorrelation. Thus, FOREST-BGC was more sensitive to the effects of year-to-year climate variation on annual stem growth than were multiple linear regression models.

77 FR 14366 - Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average Total Assets That Defines Community Financial...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-09

... FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY [No. 2012-N-02] Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average.... ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has adjusted the cap on average total... statutory cap.\\2\\ The Bank Act was amended in 2008 to set the statutory cap at $1 billion and to require the...

75 FR 71446 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Reports of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-23

... information regarding these corrections and removals and to determine whether recall action is adequate... Annual Reporting Burden\\1\\ Annual 21 CFR section Number of frequency per Total annual Hours per Total... Average Annual Recordkeeping Burden \\1\\ Annual 21 CFR Section Number of frequency per Total annual Hours...

Testing the Wisconsin Phosphorus Index with year-round, field-scale runoff monitoring.

PubMed

Good, Laura W; Vadas, Peter; Panuska, John C; Bonilla, Carlos A; Jokela, William E

2012-01-01

The Wisconsin Phosphorus Index (WPI) is one of several P indices in the United States that use equations to describe actual P loss processes. Although for nutrient management planning the WPI is reported as a dimensionless whole number, it is calculated as average annual dissolved P (DP) and particulate P (PP) mass delivered per unit area. The WPI calculations use soil P concentration, applied manure and fertilizer P, and estimates of average annual erosion and average annual runoff. We compared WPI estimated P losses to annual P loads measured in surface runoff from 86 field-years on crop fields and pastures. As the erosion and runoff generated by the weather in the monitoring years varied substantially from the average annual estimates used in the WPI, the WPI and measured loads were not well correlated. However, when measured runoff and erosion were used in the WPI field loss calculations, the WPI accurately estimated annual total P loads with a Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency (NSE) of 0.87. The DP loss estimates were not as close to measured values (NSE = 0.40) as the PP loss estimates (NSE = 0.89). Some errors in estimating DP losses may be unavoidable due to uncertainties in estimating on-farm manure P application rates. The WPI is sensitive to field management that affects its erosion and runoff estimates. Provided that the WPI methods for estimating average annual erosion and runoff are accurately reflecting the effects of management, the WPI is an accurate field-level assessment tool for managing runoff P losses. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Vegetative soil covers for hazardous waste landfills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peace, Jerry L.

Shallow land burial has been the preferred method for disposing of municipal and hazardous wastes in the United States because it is the simplest, cheapest, and most cost-effective method of disposal. Arid and semiarid regions of the western United States have received considerable attention over the past two decades in reference to hazardous, radioactive, and mixed waste disposal. Disposal is based upon the premise that low mean annual precipitation, high evapotranspiration, and low or negligible recharge, favor waste isolation from the environment for long periods of time. The objective of this study is to demonstrate that containment of municipal and hazardous wastes in arid and semiarid environments can be accomplished effectively without traditional, synthetic materials and complex, multi-layer systems. This research demonstrates that closure covers utilizing natural soils and native vegetation i.e., vegetative soil covers, will meet the technical equivalency criteria prescribed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for hazardous waste landfills. Vegetative soil cover design combines layers of natural soil, native plant species, and climatic conditions to form a sustainable, functioning ecosystem that maintains the natural water balance. In this study, percolation through a natural analogue and an engineered cover is simulated using the one-dimensional, numerical code UNSAT-H. UNSAT-H is a Richards' equation-based model that simulates soil water infiltration, unsaturated flow, redistribution, evaporation, plant transpiration, and deep percolation. This study incorporates conservative, site-specific soil hydraulic and vegetation parameters. Historical meteorological data from 1919 to 1996 are used to simulate percolation through the natural analogue and an engineered cover, with and without vegetation. This study indicates that a 1 m (3 ft) cover is the minimum design thickness necessary to meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency-prescribed technical equivalency criteria of 31.5 mm/year and 1 x 10-7 cm/second for net annual percolation and average flux, respectively. Increasing cover thickness to 1.2 m (4 ft) or 1.5 m (5 ft) results in limited additional improvement in cover performance. Under historical climatic conditions, net annual percolation and average flux through a 1 m (3 ft) cover is directed upward at 0.28 mm/year and 9.03 x 10-10 cm/second, respectively, for a soil cover with vegetation.

Medical expenditures in division I collegiate athletics: an analysis by sport and gender.

PubMed

Kaeding, Christopher C; Borchers, James; Oman, Janine; Pedroza, Angela

2014-09-01

Medical expenses for collegiate athletics include providing a training room with its supplies, equipment, personnel costs, and insurance coverage. Additional expenses beyond the training room include imaging, diagnostic testing, specialty consultations, and surgeries. We hypothesized that there would be no difference in average expenses or number of claims between male and female athletes over a 5-year period. Prospective patient cohort. A sports medicine center serving athletes in Big 10 Conference intercollegiate sports. All medical claims and charges for 36 varsity teams were analyzed from 2005 to 2010. The teams were categorized into 3 groups: female-only teams, male-only teams, and coed teams. Analysis of sports with corresponding male and female teams was also performed. Claims and charges for medical care for 36 intercollegiate athletic teams over 5 years. Individual team claims and charges were stable over the study period. In 11 of the 14 sex-matched sports, the female teams had higher average annual charges. After normalizing for roster size in the sex-matched sports, females had 0.97 more average annual claims (P < 0.01) and $1459 higher annual charges (P = 0.001) than their male counterparts. The charges per claim were similar between the sexes. The 5 teams with the highest average annual charges were football, wrestling, softball, women's crew, and men's lacrosse. When normalized for roster size, the 5 sports with the highest average annual charges per athlete were softball, women's diving, men's basketball, wrestling, and men's gymnastics. Charges per claim were similar between the sex-matched sports, but the female sports had a higher number of annual claims per athlete and thus higher total charges per athlete/year. Football had the highest average annual total charges as a team, but when normalized for roster size football charges per athlete/year were similar to those of other sports.

40 CFR 80.90 - Conventional gasoline baseline emissions determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Conventional gasoline baseline... gasoline baseline emissions determination. (a) Annual average baseline values. For any facility of a refiner or importer of conventional gasoline, the annual average baseline values of the facility's exhaust...

40 CFR 80.90 - Conventional gasoline baseline emissions determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Conventional gasoline baseline... gasoline baseline emissions determination. (a) Annual average baseline values. For any facility of a refiner or importer of conventional gasoline, the annual average baseline values of the facility's exhaust...

40 CFR 80.90 - Conventional gasoline baseline emissions determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Conventional gasoline baseline... gasoline baseline emissions determination. (a) Annual average baseline values. For any facility of a refiner or importer of conventional gasoline, the annual average baseline values of the facility's exhaust...

40 CFR 80.90 - Conventional gasoline baseline emissions determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Conventional gasoline baseline... gasoline baseline emissions determination. (a) Annual average baseline values. For any facility of a refiner or importer of conventional gasoline, the annual average baseline values of the facility's exhaust...

40 CFR 80.90 - Conventional gasoline baseline emissions determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Conventional gasoline baseline... gasoline baseline emissions determination. (a) Annual average baseline values. For any facility of a refiner or importer of conventional gasoline, the annual average baseline values of the facility's exhaust...

Rainfall-runoff characteristics and effects of increased urban density on streamflow and infiltration in the eastern part of the San Jacinto River basin, Riverside County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guay, Joel R.

2002-01-01

To better understand the rainfall-runoff characteristics of the eastern part of the San Jacinto River Basin and to estimate the effects of increased urbanization on streamflow, channel infiltration, and land-surface infiltration, a long-term (1950?98) time series of monthly flows in and out of the channels and land surfaces were simulated using the Hydrologic Simulation Program- FORTRAN (HSPF) rainfall-runoff model. Channel and land-surface infiltration includes rainfall or runoff that infiltrates past the zone of evapotranspiration and may become ground-water recharge. The study area encompasses about 256 square miles of the San Jacinto River drainage basin in Riverside County, California. Daily streamflow (for periods with available data between 1950 and 1998), and daily rainfall and evaporation (1950?98) data; monthly reservoir storage data (1961?98); and estimated mean annual reservoir inflow data (for 1974 conditions) were used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff model. Measured and simulated mean annual streamflows for the San Jacinto River near San Jacinto streamflow-gaging station (North-South Fork subbasin) for 1950?91 and 1997?98 were 14,000 and 14,200 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 1.4 percent. The standard error of the mean for measured and simulated annual streamflow in the North-South Fork subbasin was 3,520 and 3,160 acre-feet, respectively. Measured and simulated mean annual streamflows for the Bautista Creek streamflow-gaging station (Bautista Creek subbasin) for 1950?98 were 980 acre-feet and 991 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 1.1 percent. The standard error of the mean for measured and simulated annual streamflow in the Bautista Creek subbasin was 299 and 217 acre-feet, respectively. Measured and simulated annual streamflows for the San Jacinto River above State Street near San Jacinto streamflow-gaging station (Poppet subbasin) for 1998 were 23,400 and 23,500 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 0.4 percent. The simulated mean annual streamflow for the State Street gaging station at the outlet of the study basin and the simulated mean annual basin infiltration (combined infiltration from all the channels and land surfaces) were 8,720 and 41,600 acre-feet, respectively, for water years 1950-98. Simulated annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station ranged from 16.8 acre-feet in water year 1961 to 70,400 acre-feet in water year 1993, and simulated basin infiltration ranged from 2,770 acre-feet in water year 1961 to 149,000 acre-feet in water year 1983.The effects of increased urbanization on the hydrology of the study basin were evaluated by increasing the size of the effective impervious and non-effective impervious urban areas simulated in the calibrated rainfall-runoff model by 50 and 100 percent, respectively. The rainfall-runoff model simulated a long-term time series of monthly flows in and out of the channels and land surfaces using daily rainfall and potential evaporation data for water years 1950?98. Increasing the effective impervious and non-effective impervious urban areas by 100 percent resulted in a 5-percent increase in simulated mean annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station, and a 2.2-percent increase in simulated basin infiltration. Results of a frequency analysis of the simulated annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station showed that when effective impervious and non-effective impervious areas were increased 100 percent, simulated annual streamflow increased about 100 percent for low-flow conditions and was unchanged for high-flow conditions. The simulated increase in streamflow at the State Street gaging station potentially could infiltrate along the stream channel further downstream, outside of the model area.

Acid rain monitoring in East-Central Florida from 1977 to present

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madsen, B. C.; Kheoh, T.; Hinkle, C. R.; Dreschel, T. W.

1990-01-01

Rainfall has been collected on the University of Central Florida campus and at the Kennedy Space Center over a 12 year period. The chemical composition has been determined and summarized by monthly, annual periods, and for the entire 12 year period at both locations. The weighted average pH at each site is 4.58; however, annual weighted average pH has been equal to or above the 12 year average during six of the past eight years. Nitrate concentrations have increased slightly during recent years while excess sulfate concentrations have remained below the 12 year weighted average during six of the past seven years. Stepwise regression suggests that sulfate, nitrate, ammonium ion and calcium play major roles in the description of rainwater acidity. Annual acid deposition and annual rainfall have varied from 20 to 50 meg/(m(exp 2) year) and 100 to 180 cm/year, respectively. Sea salt comprises at least 25 percent of the total ionic composition.

[Simulation of air pollution characteristics and estimates of environmental capacity in Zibo City].

PubMed

Xue, Wen-Bo; Wang, Jin-Nan; Yang, Jin-Tian; Lei, Yu; Yan, Li; He, Jin-Yu; Han, Bao-Ping

2013-04-01

To develop a new pattern of air pollution control that is based on the integration of "concentration control, total amount control, and quality control", and in the context of developing national (2011-2015 air pollution control plan for key areas) and (Environmental protection plan of Zibo municipality for the "12th Five-Year Plan" period), a simulation of atmospheric dispersion of air pollutants in Zibo City and its peripheral areas is carried out by employing CALPUFF model, and the atmospheric environmental capacity of SO2, NO(x) and PM10 is estimated based on the results of model simulation and using multi-objective linear programming optimization. The results indicates that the air pollution in Zibo City is significantly related to the pollution sources outside of Zibo City, which contributes to the annual average concentration of SO2, NO2 and PM10 in Zibo City by 26.34%, 21.23%, and 14.58% respectively. There is a notable interaction between districts and counties of Zibo municipality, in which the contribution of SO2, NO(x) and PM10 emissions in surrounding counties and districts to the annual average concentrations of SO2, NO2 and PM10 in downtown area are 35.96%, 43.17%, and 17.69% respectively. There is a great variation in spatial sensitivity of air pollutant emission, and the environmental impact of unit pollutant emissions from Zhoucun, Huantai, Zhangdian and Zichuan is greater than that released from other districts/counties. To meet the requirement of (Ambient air quality standard) (GB 3095-2012), the environmental capacities of SO2, NO(x) and PM10 of Zibo City are only 8.03 x 10(4) t, 19.16 x 10(4) t and 3.21 x 10(4) t, respectively. Therefore, it is imperative to implement regional air pollution joint control in Shandong peninsula in order to ensure the achievement of air quality standard in Zibo City.

Estimating catchment scale groundwater dynamics from recession analysis - enhanced constraining of hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, T.; Mengistu, Z.

2015-10-01

In this study we propose a new formulation of subsurface water storage dynamics for use in rainfall-runoff models. Under the assumption of a strong relationship between storage and runoff, the temporal distribution of storage is considered to have the same shape as the distribution of observed recessions (measured as the difference between the log of runoff values). The mean subsurface storage is estimated as the storage at steady-state, where moisture input equals the mean annual runoff. An important contribution of the new formulation is that its parameters are derived directly from observed recession data and the mean annual runoff and hence estimated prior to calibration. Key principles guiding the evaluation of the new subsurface storage routine have been (a) to minimize the number of parameters to be estimated through the, often arbitrary fitting to optimize runoff predictions (calibration) and (b) maximize the range of testing conditions (i.e. large-sample hydrology). The new storage routine has been implemented in the already parameter parsimonious Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD) model and tested for 73 catchments in Norway of varying size, mean elevations and landscape types. Runoff simulations for the 73 catchments from two model structures; DDD with calibrated subsurface storage and DDD with the new estimated subsurface storage were compared. No loss in precision of runoff simulations was found using the new estimated storage routine. For the 73 catchments, an average of the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency criterion of 0.68 was found using the new estimated storage routine compared with 0.66 using calibrated storage routine. The average Kling-Gupta Efficiency criterion was 0.69 and 0.70 for the new and old storage routine, respectively. Runoff recessions are more realistically modelled using the new approach since the root mean square error between the mean of observed and simulated recessions was reduced by almost 50 % using the new storage routine.

Climate, soil water storage, and the average annual water balance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.

1994-01-01

This paper describes the development and testing of the hypothesis that the long-term water balance is determined only by the local interaction of fluctuating water supply (precipitation) and demand (potential evapotranspiration), mediated by water storage in the soil. Adoption of this hypothesis, together with idealized representations of relevant input variabilities in time and space, yields a simple model of the water balance of a finite area having a uniform climate. The partitioning of average annual precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff depends on seven dimensionless numbers: the ratio of average annual potential evapotranspiration to average annual precipitation (index of dryness); the ratio of the spatial average plant-available water-holding capacity of the soil to the annual average precipitation amount; the mean number of precipitation events per year; the shape parameter of the gamma distribution describing spatial variability of storage capacity; and simple measures of the seasonality of mean precipitation intensity, storm arrival rate, and potential evapotranspiration. The hypothesis is tested in an application of the model to the United States east of the Rocky Mountains, with no calibration. Study area averages of runoff and evapotranspiration, based on observations, are 263 mm and 728 mm, respectively; the model yields corresponding estimates of 250 mm and 741 mm, respectively, and explains 88% of the geographical variance of observed runoff within the study region. The differences between modeled and observed runoff can be explained by uncertainties in the model inputs and in the observed runoff. In the humid (index of dryness <1) parts of the study area, the dominant factor producing runoff is the excess of annual precipitation over annual potential evapotranspiration, but runoff caused by variability of supply and demand over time is also significant; in the arid (index of dryness >1) parts, all of the runoff is caused by variability of forcing over time. Contributions to model runoff attributable to small-scale spatial variability of storage capacity are insignificant throughout the study area. The consistency of the model with observational data is supportive of the supply-demand-storage hypothesis, which neglects infiltration excess runoff and other finite-permeability effects on the soil water balance.

Development and testing of transfer functions for generating quantitative climatic estimates from Australian pollen data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Ellyn J.; van der Kaars, Sander

2006-10-01

We review attempts to derive quantitative climatic estimates from Australian pollen data, including the climatic envelope, climatic indicator and modern analogue approaches, and outline the need to pursue alternatives for use as input to, or validation of, simulations by models of past, present and future climate patterns. To this end, we have constructed and tested modern pollen-climate transfer functions for mainland southeastern Australia and Tasmania using the existing southeastern Australian pollen database and for northern Australia using a new pollen database we are developing. After testing for statistical significance, 11 parameters were selected for mainland southeastern Australia, seven for Tasmania and six for northern Australia. The functions are based on weighted-averaging partial least squares regression and their predictive ability evaluated against modern observational climate data using leave-one-out cross-validation. Functions for summer, annual and winter rainfall and temperatures are most robust for southeastern Australia, while in Tasmania functions for minimum temperature of the coldest period, mean winter and mean annual temperature are the most reliable. In northern Australia, annual and summer rainfall and annual and summer moisture indexes are the strongest. The validation of all functions means all can be applied to Quaternary pollen records from these three areas with confidence. Copyright

Non-stationary Return Levels of CMIP5 Multi-model Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Cheng, L.; Phillips, T. J.; AghaKouchak, A.

2015-05-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate to what extent the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the climate of the twentieth century can represent observed warm monthly temperature extremes under a changing environment. The biases and spatial patterns of 2-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return levels of the annual maxima of monthly mean temperature (hereafter, annual temperature maxima) from CMIP5 simulations are compared with those of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data considered under a non-stationary assumption. The results show that CMIP5 climate models collectively underestimate the mean annual maxima over arid and semi-arid regions that are mostmore » subject to severe heat waves and droughts. Furthermore, the results indicate that most climate models tend to underestimate the historical annual temperature maxima over the United States and Greenland, while generally disagreeing in their simulations over cold regions. Return level analysis shows that with respect to the spatial patterns of the annual temperature maxima, there are good agreements between the CRU observations and most CMIP5 simulations. However, the magnitudes of the simulated annual temperature maxima differ substantially across individual models. Discrepancies are generally larger over higher latitudes and cold regions.« less

AVERAGE ANNUAL SOLAR UV DOSE OF THE CONTINENTAL US CITIZEN

EPA Science Inventory

The average annual solar UV dose of US citizens is not known, but is required for relative risk assessments of skin cancer from UV-emitting devices. We solved this problem using a novel approach. The EPA's "National Human Activity Pattern Survey" recorded the daily ou...

14 CFR Appendix A to Part 187 - Methodology for Computation of Fees for Certification Services Performed Outside the United States

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... hours of a U.S. Federal Government employee. This result in the hourly government paid cost of an... average annual leave hours and 1,800 average annual hours available for work for computer manpower...

40 CFR 464.44 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.14 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.14 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.44 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.24 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.24 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.24 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.44 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.44 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.24 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.44 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.24 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.14 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.14 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.14 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

Effects of different regional climate model resolution and forcing scales on projected hydrologic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Pablo A.; Mizukami, Naoki; Ikeda, Kyoko; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.; Rajagopalan, Balaji

2016-10-01

We examine the effects of regional climate model (RCM) horizontal resolution and forcing scaling (i.e., spatial aggregation of meteorological datasets) on the portrayal of climate change impacts. Specifically, we assess how the above decisions affect: (i) historical simulation of signature measures of hydrologic behavior, and (ii) projected changes in terms of annual water balance and hydrologic signature measures. To this end, we conduct our study in three catchments located in the headwaters of the Colorado River basin. Meteorological forcings for current and a future climate projection are obtained at three spatial resolutions (4-, 12- and 36-km) from dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, and hydrologic changes are computed using four different hydrologic model structures. These projected changes are compared to those obtained from running hydrologic simulations with current and future 4-km WRF climate outputs re-scaled to 12- and 36-km. The results show that the horizontal resolution of WRF simulations heavily affects basin-averaged precipitation amounts, propagating into large differences in simulated signature measures across model structures. The implications of re-scaled forcing datasets on historical performance were primarily observed on simulated runoff seasonality. We also found that the effects of WRF grid resolution on projected changes in mean annual runoff and evapotranspiration may be larger than the effects of hydrologic model choice, which surpasses the effects from re-scaled forcings. Scaling effects on projected variations in hydrologic signature measures were found to be generally smaller than those coming from WRF resolution; however, forcing aggregation in many cases reversed the direction of projected changes in hydrologic behavior.

Comparison of Selected EIA-782 Data With Other Data Sources

EIA Publications

2012-01-01

This article compares annual average prices reported from the EIA-782 survey series for residential No. 2 distillate, on-highway diesel fuel, retail regular motor gasoline, refiner No. 2 fuel oil for resale, refiner No. 2 diesel fuel for resale, refiner regular motor gasoline for resale, and refiner kerosene-type jet fuel for resale with annual average prices reported by other sources. In terms of volume, it compares EIA-782C Prime Supplier annual volumes for motor gasoline (all grades), distillate fuel oil, kerosene-type jet fuel and residual fuel oil with annual volumes from other sources.

Climate impact on airborne particulate matter concentrations in California using seven year analysis periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Hu, J.; Zhao, Z.; Chen, S.-H.; Kleeman, M. J.

2010-11-01

The effect of global climate change on the annual average concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in California was studied using a climate-air quality modeling system composed of global through regional models. Output from the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM) generated under the "business as usual" global emissions scenario was downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model followed by air quality simulations using the UCD/CIT airshed model. The system represents major atmospheric processes acting on gas and particle phase species including meteorological effects on emissions, advection, dispersion, chemical reaction rates, gas-particle conversion, and dry/wet deposition. The air quality simulations were carried out for the entire state of California with a resolution of 8-km for the years 2000-2006 (present climate with present emissions) and 2047-2053 (future climate with present emissions). Each of these 7-year analysis periods was analyzed using a total of 1008 simulated days to span a climatologically relevant time period with a practical computational burden. The 7-year windows were chosen to properly account for annual variability with the added benefit that the air quality predictions under the present climate could be compared to actual measurements. The climate-air quality modeling system successfully predicted the spatial pattern of present climate PM2.5 concentrations in California but the absolute magnitude of the annual average PM2.5 concentrations were under-predicted by ~4-39% in the major air basins. The majority of this under-prediction was caused by excess ventilation predicted by PCM-WRF that should be present to the same degree in the current and future time periods so that the net bias introduced into the comparison is minimized. Surface temperature, relative humidity (RH), rain rate, and wind speed were predicted to increase in the future climate while the ultra violet (UV) radiation was predicted to decrease in major urban areas in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). These changes lead to a predicted decrease in PM2.5 mass concentrations of ~0.3-0.7 μg m-3 in the southern portion of the SJV and ~0.3-1.1 μg m-3 along coastal regions of California including the heavily populated San Francisco Bay Area and the SoCAB surrounding Los Angeles. Annual average PM2.5 concentrations were predicted to increase at certain locations within the SJV and the Sacramento Valley (SV) due to the effects of climate change, but a corresponding analysis of the annual variability showed that these predictions are not statistically significant (i.e. the choice of a different 7-year period could produce a different outcome for these regions). Overall, virtually no region in California outside of coastal + central Los Angeles, and a small region around the port of Oakland in the San Francisco Bay Area experienced a statistically significant change in annual average PM2.5 concentrations due to the effects of climate change in the present~study. The present study employs the highest spatial resolution (8 km) and the longest analysis windows (7 years) of any climate-air quality analysis conducted for California to date, but the results still have some degree of uncertainty. Most significantly, GCM calculations have inherent uncertainty that is not fully represented in the current study since a single GCM was used as the starting point for all calculations. The PCM results used in the current study predicted greater wintertime increases in air temperature over the Pacific Ocean than over land, further motivating comparison to other GCM results. Ensembles of GCM results are usually employed to build confidence in climate calculations. The current results provide a first data-point for the climate-air quality analysis that simultaneously employ the fine spatial resolution and long time scales needed to capture the behavior of climate-PM2.5 interactions in California. Future downscaling studies should follow up with a full ensemble of GCMs as their starting point, and include aerosol feedback effects on local meteorology.

Teratogens: a public health issue – a Brazilian overview

PubMed Central

Mazzu-Nascimento, Thiago; Melo, Débora Gusmão; Morbioli, Giorgio Gianini; Carrilho, Emanuel; Vianna, Fernanda Sales Luiz; da Silva, André Anjos; Schuler-Faccini, Lavinia

2017-01-01

Abstract Congenital anomalies are already the second cause of infant mortality in Brazil, as in many other middle-income countries in Latin America. Birth defects are a result of both genetic and environmental factors, but a multifactorial etiology has been more frequently observed. Here, we address the environmental causes of birth defects – or teratogens – as a public health issue and present their mechanisms of action, categories and their respective maternal-fetal deleterious effects. We also present a survey from 2008 to 2013 of Brazilian cases involving congenital anomalies (annual average of 20,205), fetal deaths (annual average of 1,530), infant hospitalizations (annual average of 82,452), number of deaths of hospitalized infants (annual average of 2,175), and the average cost of hospitalizations (annual cost of $7,758). Moreover, we report on Brazilian cases of teratogenesis due to the recent Zika virus infection, and to the use of misoprostol, thalidomide, alcohol and illicit drugs. Special attention has been given to the Zika virus infection, now proven to be responsible for the microcephaly outbreak in Brazil, with 8,039 cases under investigation (from October 2015 to June 2016). From those cases, 1,616 were confirmed and 324 deaths occurred due to microcephaly complications or alterations on the central nervous system. Congenital anomalies impact life quality and raise costs in specialized care, justifying the classification of teratogens as a public health issue. PMID:28534929

Radiation exposure from consumer products and miscellaneous sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1977-01-01

This review of the literature indicates that there is a variety of consumer products and miscellaneous sources of radiation that result in exposure to the U.S. population. A summary of the number of people exposed to each such source, an estimate of the resulting dose equivalents to the exposed population, and an estimate of the average annual population dose equivalent are tabulated. A review of the data in this table shows that the total average annual contribution to the whole-body dose equivalent of the U.S. population from consumer products is less than 5 mrem; about 70 percent of this arisesmore » from the presence of naturally-occurring radionuclides in building materials. Some of the consumer product sources contribute exposure mainly to localized tissues or organs. Such localized estimates include: 0.5 to 1 mrem to the average annual population lung dose equivalent (generalized); 2 rem to the average annual population bronchial epithelial dose equivalent (localized); and 10 to 15 rem to the average annual population basal mucosal dose equivalent (basal mucosa of the gum). Based on these estimates, these sources may be grouped or classified as those that involve many people and the dose equivalent is relative large or those that involve many people but the dose equivalent is relatively small, or the dose equivalent is relatively large but the number of people involved is small.« less

Mass balance, meteorology, area altitude distribution, glacier-surface altitude, ice motion, terminus position, and runoff at Gulkana Glacier, Alaska, 1996 balance year

USGS Publications Warehouse

March, Rod S.

2003-01-01

The 1996 measured winter snow, maximum winter snow, net, and annual balances in the Gulkana Glacier Basin were evaluated on the basis of meteorological, hydrological, and glaciological data. Averaged over the glacier, the measured winter snow balance was 0.87 meter on April 18, 1996, 1.1 standard deviation below the long-term average; the maximum winter snow balance, 1.06 meters, was reached on May 28, 1996; and the net balance (from August 30, 1995, to August 24, 1996) was -0.53 meter, 0.53 standard deviation below the long-term average. The annual balance (October 1, 1995, to September 30, 1996) was -0.37 meter. Area-averaged balances were reported using both the 1967 and 1993 area altitude distributions (the numbers previously given in this abstract use the 1993 area altitude distribution). Net balance was about 25 percent less negative using the 1993 area altitude distribution than the 1967 distribution. Annual average air temperature was 0.9 degree Celsius warmer than that recorded with the analog sensor used since 1966. Total precipitation catch for the year was 0.78 meter, 0.8 standard deviations below normal. The annual average wind speed was 3.5 meters per second in the first year of measuring wind speed. Annual runoff averaged 1.50 meters over the basin, 1.0 standard deviation below the long-term average. Glacier-surface altitude and ice-motion changes measured at three index sites document seasonal ice-speed and glacier-thickness changes. Both showed a continuation of a slowing and thinning trend present in the 1990s. The glacier terminus and lower ablation area were defined for 1996 with a handheld Global Positioning System survey of 126 locations spread out over about 4 kilometers on the lower glacier margin. From 1949 to 1996, the terminus retreated about 1,650 meters for an average retreat rate of 35 meters per year.

Multicriteria evaluation of discharge simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hui; Piao, Shilong; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Ciais, Philippe; Yin, Yi; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Sitch, Stephen; Ahlström, Anders; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Huntingford, Chris; Levis, Sam; Levy, Peter E.; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Yue; Li, Xiran; Lomas, Mark R.; Peylin, Philippe; Poulter, Ben; Viovy, Nicolas; Zaehle, Soenke; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang; Wang, Lei

2015-08-01

In this study, we assessed the performance of discharge simulations by coupling the runoff from seven Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs; LPJ, ORCHIDEE, Sheffield-DGVM, TRIFFID, LPJ-GUESS, CLM4CN, and OCN) to one river routing model for 16 large river basins. The results show that the seasonal cycle of river discharge is generally modeled well in the low and middle latitudes but not in the high latitudes, where the peak discharge (due to snow and ice melting) is underestimated. For the annual mean discharge, the DGVMs chained with the routing model show an underestimation. Furthermore, the 30 year trend of discharge is also underestimated. For the interannual variability of discharge, a skill score based on overlapping of probability density functions (PDFs) suggests that most models correctly reproduce the observed variability (correlation coefficient higher than 0.5; i.e., models account for 50% of observed interannual variability) except for the Lena, Yenisei, Yukon, and the Congo river basins. In addition, we compared the simulated runoff from different simulations where models were forced with either fixed or varying land use. This suggests that both seasonal and annual mean runoff has been little affected by land use change but that the trend itself of runoff is sensitive to land use change. None of the models when considered individually show significantly better performances than any other and in all basins. This suggests that based on current modeling capability, a regional-weighted average of multimodel ensemble projections might be appropriate to reduce the bias in future projection of global river discharge.

40 CFR 141.132 - Monitoring requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... H system serving at least 10,000 persons which has a source water annual average TOC level, before.... Subpart H system serving from 500 to 9,999 persons which has a source water annual average TOC level... monitoring. (iii) Monitoring requirements for source water TOC. In order to qualify for reduced monitoring...

26 CFR 1.401(l)-1 - Permitted disparity in employer-provided contributions or benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... with respect to an employee's average annual compensation at or below the integration level (expressed... or below the integration level (expressed as a percentage of such plan year compensation). (5... plan with respect to an employee's average annual compensation above the integration level (expressed...

50 CFR 218.181 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... and the indicated number of times: (1) Level B Harassment: (i) Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)—10...); (vii) Spinner dolphin (S. longirostris)—115 (an average of 23 annually); (viii) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—10 (an average of 2 annually); (ix) Short-finned pilot whale (Globicephala macrorhynchus...

50 CFR 218.181 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... and the indicated number of times: (1) Level B Harassment: (i) Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)—10...); (vii) Spinner dolphin (S. longirostris)—115 (an average of 23 annually); (viii) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—10 (an average of 2 annually); (ix) Short-finned pilot whale (Globicephala macrorhynchus...

50 CFR 218.181 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... and the indicated number of times: (1) Level B Harassment: (i) Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)—10...); (vii) Spinner dolphin (S. longirostris)—115 (an average of 23 annually); (viii) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—10 (an average of 2 annually); (ix) Short-finned pilot whale (Globicephala macrorhynchus...

Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Y. H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Flanner, M. G.; Jiao, C.; Shindell, D. T.; Bernsten, T.; Bisiaux, M. M.; Cao, J.; Collins, W. J.; Curran, M.;

Evaluation of global climate model on performances of precipitation simulation and prediction in the Huaihe River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yenan; Zhong, Ping-an; Xu, Bin; Zhu, Feilin; Fu, Jisi

2017-06-01

Using climate models with high performance to predict the future climate changes can increase the reliability of results. In this paper, six kinds of global climate models that selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Path (RCP) 4.5 scenarios were compared to the measured data during baseline period (1960-2000) and evaluate the simulation performance on precipitation. Since the results of single climate models are often biased and highly uncertain, we examine the back propagation (BP) neural network and arithmetic mean method in assembling the precipitation of multi models. The delta method was used to calibrate the result of single model and multimodel ensembles by arithmetic mean method (MME-AM) during the validation period (2001-2010) and the predicting period (2011-2100). We then use the single models and multimodel ensembles to predict the future precipitation process and spatial distribution. The result shows that BNU-ESM model has the highest simulation effect among all the single models. The multimodel assembled by BP neural network (MME-BP) has a good simulation performance on the annual average precipitation process and the deterministic coefficient during the validation period is 0.814. The simulation capability on spatial distribution of precipitation is: calibrated MME-AM > MME-BP > calibrated BNU-ESM. The future precipitation predicted by all models tends to increase as the time period increases. The order of average increase amplitude of each season is: winter > spring > summer > autumn. These findings can provide useful information for decision makers to make climate-related disaster mitigation plans.

A novel methodology for interpreting air quality measurements from urban streets using CFD modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solazzo, Efisio; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Cai, Xiaoming

2011-09-01

In this study, a novel computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based methodology has been developed to interpret long-term averaged measurements of pollutant concentrations collected at roadside locations. The methodology is applied to the analysis of pollutant dispersion in Stratford Road (SR), a busy street canyon in Birmingham (UK), where a one-year sampling campaign was carried out between August 2005 and July 2006. Firstly, a number of dispersion scenarios are defined by combining sets of synoptic wind velocity and direction. Assuming neutral atmospheric stability, CFD simulations are conducted for all the scenarios, by applying the standard k-ɛ turbulence model, with the aim of creating a database of normalised pollutant concentrations at specific locations within the street. Modelled concentration for all wind scenarios were compared with hourly observed NO x data. In order to compare with long-term averaged measurements, a weighted average of the CFD-calculated concentration fields was derived, with the weighting coefficients being proportional to the frequency of each scenario observed during the examined period (either monthly or annually). In summary the methodology consists of (i) identifying the main dispersion scenarios for the street based on wind speed and directions data, (ii) creating a database of CFD-calculated concentration fields for the identified dispersion scenarios, and (iii) combining the CFD results based on the frequency of occurrence of each dispersion scenario during the examined period. The methodology has been applied to calculate monthly and annually averaged benzene concentration at several locations within the street canyon so that a direct comparison with observations could be made. The results of this study indicate that, within the simplifying assumption of non-buoyant flow, CFD modelling can aid understanding of long-term air quality measurements, and help assessing the representativeness of monitoring locations for population exposure studies.

Effects of tillage and application rate on atrazine transport to subsurface drainage: Evaluation of RZWQM using a six-year field study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malone, Robert W.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Ma, Liwang; Kanwar, Rameshwar S.; Pederson, Carl H.; Heilman, Philip

2014-01-01

Well tested agricultural system models can improve our understanding of the water quality effects of management practices under different conditions. The Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) has been tested under a variety of conditions. However, the current model's ability to simulate pesticide transport to subsurface drain flow over a long term period under different tillage systems and application rates is not clear. Therefore, we calibrated and tested RZWQM using six years of data from Nashua, Iowa. In this experiment, atrazine was spring applied at 2.8 (1990–1992) and 0.6 kg/ha/yr (1993–1995) to two 0.4 ha plots with different tillage (till and no-till). The observed and simulated average annual flow weighted atrazine concentrations (FWAC) in subsurface drain flow from the no-till plot were 3.7 and 3.2 μg/L, respectively for the period with high atrazine application rates, and 0.8 and 0.9 μg/L, respectively for the period with low application rates. The 1990–1992 observed average annual FWAC difference between the no-till and tilled plot was 2.4 μg/L while the simulated difference was 2.1 μg/L. These observed and simulated differences for 1993–1995 were 0.1 and 0.1 μg/L, respectively. The Nash–Sutcliffe model performance statistic (EF) for cumulative atrazine flux to subsurface drain flow was 0.93 for the no-till plot testing years (1993–1995), which is comparable to other recent model tests. The value of EF is 1.0 when simulated data perfectly match observed data. The order of selected parameter sensitivity for RZWQM simulated FWAC was atrazine partition coefficient > number of macropores > atrazine half life in soil > soil hydraulic conductivity. Simulations from 1990 to 1995 with four different atrazine application rates applied at a constant rate throughout the simulation period showed concentrations in drain flow for the no-till plot to be twice those of the tilled plot. The differences were more pronounced in the early simulation period (1990–1992), partly because of the characteristics of macropore flow during large storms. The results suggest that RZWQM is a promising tool to study pesticide transport to subsurface drain flow under different tillage systems and application rates over several years, the concentrations of atrazine in drain flow can be higher with no-till than tilled soil over a range of atrazine application rates, and atrazine concentrations in drain flow are sensitive to the macropore flow characteristics under different tillage systems and rainfall timing and intensity.

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes from three contrasting evergreen forests: The role of forest dynamics and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sierra, C.A.; Loescher, H.W.; Harmon, M.E.; Richardson, A.D.; Hollinger, D.Y.; Perakis, S.S.

2009-01-01

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed ?? 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results also show that the variation of annual carbon fluxes poses an important challenge in our ability to determine whether an ecosystem is a source, a sink, or is neutral in regard to CO2 at longer timescales. In simulations where climate change negatively affected ecosystem carbon stores, there was a 20% chance of committing Type II error, even with 20 years of sequential data. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Water and sediment transport modeling of a large temporary river basin in Greece.

PubMed

Gamvroudis, C; Nikolaidis, N P; Tzoraki, O; Papadoulakis, V; Karalemas, N

2015-03-01

The objective of this research was to study the spatial distribution of runoff and sediment transport in a large Mediterranean watershed (Evrotas River Basin) consisting of temporary flow tributaries and high mountain areas and springs by focusing on the collection and use of a variety of data to constrain the model parameters and characterize hydrologic and geophysical processes at various scales. Both monthly and daily discharge data (2004-2011) and monthly sediment concentration data (2010-2011) from an extended monitoring network of 8 sites were used to calibrate and validate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. In addition flow desiccation maps showing wet and dry aquatic states obtained during a dry year were used to calibrate the simulation of low flows. Annual measurements of sediment accumulation in two reaches were used to further calibrate the sediment simulation. Model simulation of hydrology and sediment transport was in good agreement with field observations as indicated by a variety of statistical measures used to evaluate the goodness of fit. A water balance was constructed using a 12 year long (2000-2011) simulation. The average precipitation of the basin for this period was estimated to be 903 mm yr(-1). The actual evapotranspiration was 46.9% (424 mm yr(-1)), and the total water yield was 13.4% (121 mm yr(-1)). The remaining 33.4% (302 mm yr(-1)) was the amount of water that was lost through the deep groundwater of Taygetos and Parnonas Mountains to areas outside the watershed and for drinking water demands (6.3%). The results suggest that the catchment has on average significant water surplus to cover drinking water and irrigation demands. However, the situation is different during the dry years, where the majority of the reaches (85% of the river network are perennial and temporary) completely dry up as a result of the limited rainfall and the substantial water abstraction for irrigation purposes. There is a large variability in the sediment yield within the catchment with the highest annual sediment yield (3.5 t ha(-1)yr(-1)) to be generated from the western part of the watershed. The developed methodology facilitated the simulation of hydrology and sediment transport of the catchment providing consistent results and suggesting its usefulness as a tool for temporary rivers management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

40 CFR 464.13 - Effluent limitations guidelines representing the degree of effluent reduction attainable by the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... copper, lead, zinc, and total phenols. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass limitations....0771 0.0421 Lead (T) 0.0791 0.039 Zinc (T) 0.114 0.0431 Maximum for any 1 day Maximum for monthly average Annual average 1 (mg/l) 2 (mg/l) 2 Copper (T) 0.77 0.42 0.017 Lead (T) 0.79 0.39 0.022 Zinc (T) 1...

40 CFR 464.13 - Effluent limitations guidelines representing the degree of effluent reduction attainable by the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... copper, lead, zinc, and total phenols. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass limitations....0771 0.0421 Lead (T) 0.0791 0.039 Zinc (T) 0.114 0.0431 Maximum for any 1 day Maximum for monthly average Annual average 1 (mg/l) 2 (mg/l) 2 Copper (T) 0.77 0.42 0.017 Lead (T) 0.79 0.39 0.022 Zinc (T) 1...

Formation, distribution and variability in snow cover on the Asian territory of the USSR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pupkov, V. N.

1985-01-01

A description is given of maps compiled for annual and average multiple-year water reserves. The annual and average multiple-year maximum snow cover height for winter, extreme values of maximum snow reserves, and the average height and snow reserves at the end of each decade are shown. These maps were made for the entire Asian territory of the USSR, excluding Central Asia, Kamchatka Peninsula, and the Sakhalin Islands.

Simulation of future land use change and climate change impacts on hydrological processes in a tropical catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marhaento, H.; Booij, M. J.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

2017-12-01

Future hydrological processes in the Samin catchment (278 km2) in Java, Indonesia have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using inputs from predicted land use distributions in the period 2030 - 2050, bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) output and output of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) to include climate model uncertainty. Two land use change scenarios namely a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where no measures are taken to control land use change, and a controlled (CON) scenario, where the future land use follows the land use planning, were used in the simulations together with two climate change scenarios namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. It was predicted that in 2050 settlement and agriculture area of the study catchment will increase by 33.9% and 3.5%, respectively under the BAU scenario, whereas agriculture area and evergreen forest will increase by 15.2% and 10.2%, respectively under the CON scenario. In comparison to the baseline conditions (1983 - 2005), the predicted mean annual maximum and minimum temperature in 2030 - 2050 will increase by an average of +10C, while changes in the mean annual rainfall range from -20% to +19% under RCP 4.5 and from -25% to +15% under RCP 8.5. The results show that land use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual stream flow and surface runoff. It was observed that combination of the RCP 4.5 climate scenario and BAU land use scenario resulted in an increase of the mean annual stream flow from -7% to +64% and surface runoff from +21% to +102%, which is 40% and 60% more than when land use change is acting alone. Furthermore, under the CON scenario the annual stream flow and surface runoff could be potentially reduced by up to 10% and 30%, respectively indicating the effectiveness of applied land use planning. The findings of this study will be useful for the water resource managers to mitigate future risks associated with land use and climate changes in the study catchment. Keywords: land use change, climate change, hydrological impact assessment, Samin catchment

Modeling the influence of river rehabilitation scenarios on bed material sediment flux in a large river over decadal timescales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, Michael B.; Dunne, Thomas

2006-01-01

A stochastic flood generator and calibrated sediment transport formulae were used to assess the decadal impact of major river rehabilitation strategies on two fraction bed material sediment flux and net storage, first‐order indicators of aquatic riverine habitat, in a large river system. Model boundary conditions were modified to reflect the implementation of three major river rehabilitation strategies being considered in the Sacramento River Valley: gravel augmentation, setting back of levees, and flow alteration. Fifty 30‐year model simulations were used to compute probabilities of the response in sediment flux and net storage to these strategies. Total annual average bed material sediment flux estimates were made at six gauged river cross sections, and ∼60 km reach‐scale sediment budgets were evaluated between them. Gravel augmentation to improve spawning habitat induced gravel accumulation locally and/or downstream, depending on the added mixture. Levee setbacks to recreate the river corridor reduced flow stages for most flows and hence lowered sediment flux. Flow alteration to mimic natural flow regimes systematically decreased total annual average flux, suggesting that high‐magnitude low‐frequency transport events do not affect long‐term trends in bed material flux. The results indicate that each rehabilitation strategy reduces sediment transport in its target reaches and modulates imbalances in total annual bed material sediment budgets at the reach scale. Additional risk analysis is necessary to identify extreme conditions associated with variable hydrology that could affect rehabilitation over decades. Sensitivity analysis suggests that sorting of bed material sediment is the most important determinant of modeled transport and storage patterns.

Investigating a method for estimating direct nitrous oxide emissions from grazed pasture soils in New Zealand using NZ-DNDC.

PubMed

Giltrap, Donna L; Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle E; Thakur, Kailash P; Sutherland, M Anne

2013-11-01

In this study, we developed emission factor (EF) look-up tables for calculating the direct nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from grazed pasture soils in New Zealand. Look-up tables of long-term average direct emission factors (and their associated uncertainties) were generated using multiple simulations of the NZ-DNDC model over a representative range of major soil, climate and management conditions occurring in New Zealand using 20 years of climate data. These EFs were then combined with national activity data maps to estimate direct N2O emissions from grazed pasture in New Zealand using 2010 activity data. The total direct N2O emissions using look-up tables were 12.7±12.1 Gg N2O-N (equivalent to using a national average EF of 0.70±0.67%). This agreed with the amount calculated using the New Zealand specific EFs (95% confidence interval 7.7-23.1 Gg N2O-N), although the relative uncertainty increased. The high uncertainties in the look-up table EFs were primarily due to the high uncertainty of the soil parameters within the selected soil categories. Uncertainty analyses revealed that the uncertainty in soil parameters contributed much more to the uncertainty in N2O emissions than the inter-annual weather variability. The effect of changes to fertiliser applications was also examined and it was found that for fertiliser application rates of 0-50 kg N/ha for sheep and beef and 60-240 kg N/ha for dairy the modelled EF was within ±10% of the value simulated using annual fertiliser application rates of 15 kg N/ha and 140 kg N/ha respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The changing trend in nitrate concentrations in major aquifers due to historical nitrate loading from agricultural land across England and Wales from 1925 to 2150.

PubMed

Wang, L; Stuart, M E; Lewis, M A; Ward, R S; Skirvin, D; Naden, P S; Collins, A L; Ascott, M J

2016-01-15

Nitrate is necessary for agricultural productivity, but can cause considerable problems if released into aquatic systems. Agricultural land is the major source of nitrates in UK groundwater. Due to the long time-lag in the groundwater system, it could take decades for leached nitrate from the soil to discharge into freshwaters. However, this nitrate time-lag has rarely been considered in environmental water management. Against this background, this paper presents an approach to modelling groundwater nitrate at the national scale, to simulate the impacts of historical nitrate loading from agricultural land on the evolution of groundwater nitrate concentrations. An additional process-based component was constructed for the saturated zone of significant aquifers in England and Wales. This uses a simple flow model which requires modelled recharge values, together with published aquifer properties and thickness data. A spatially distributed and temporally variable nitrate input function was also introduced. The sensitivity of parameters was analysed using Monte Carlo simulations. The model was calibrated using national nitrate monitoring data. Time series of annual average nitrate concentrations along with annual spatially distributed nitrate concentration maps from 1925 to 2150 were generated for 28 selected aquifer zones. The results show that 16 aquifer zones have an increasing trend in nitrate concentration, while average nitrate concentrations in the remaining 12 are declining. The results are also indicative of the trend in the flux of groundwater nitrate entering rivers through baseflow. The model thus enables the magnitude and timescale of groundwater nitrate response to be factored into source apportionment tools and to be taken into account alongside current planning of land-management options for reducing nitrate losses. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future water demand in California under a broad range of land use scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Cameron, D. R.

2016-12-01

California continues to be gripped by the most severe drought on record. Most general circulation models agree the state will continue to warm this century and research suggests persistent, long-term droughts may become the new normal, exacerbating an already uncertain water supply future. Population increases and agricultural intensification will likely stress existing, highly variable inter-annual water supplies even further in coming decades. Using the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model, we explore a wide range of potential water demand futures from 2012 to 2062 based on 8 alternative, spatially-explicit (1 km) land use scenarios and land-use related water demand. Scenarios include low and high rates for urbanization, agricultural expansion, and agricultural contraction as well as lowest and highest rates for the combined suite of anthropogenic land uses. Land change values were sampled from county-level historical (1991-2012) land change data and county-level average water use data for urban areas (i.e. municipal and industrial) and annual and perennial cropland. We modeled 100 Monte Carlo simulations for each scenario to better characterize and capture model uncertainty and a range of potential future outcomes. Results show water demand in Mediterranean California was lowest in the low anthropogenic change scenario, dropping an average 2.7 million acre feet (MAF) by 2062. The highest water demand was seen in the high urbanization (+3.2 MAF), high agricultural expansion (+4.1 MAF), and the high anthropogenic (+4.3 MAF) scenarios. Results provide water managers and policy makers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on observed land change and water use trends, helping better inform land and resource management decisions.

Evaluation of three harvest control rules for Bigeye Tuna ( Thunnus obesus) fisheries in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Yuhe; Chen, Xinjun; Kolody, Dale

2014-10-01

The stock of Bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Indian Ocean supports an important international fishery and is considered to be fully exploited. The responsible management agency, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission (IOTC), does not have an explicit management decision-making framework in place to prevent over-fishing. In this study, we evaluated three harvest control rules, i) constant fishing mortality (CF), from 0.2 to 0.6, ii) constant catch (CC), from 60000 to 140000 t, and iii) constant escapement (CE), from 0.3 to 0.7. The population dynamics simulated by the operating model was based on the most recent stock assessment using Stock Synthesis version III (SS3). Three simulation scenarios (low, medium and high productivity) were designed to cover possible uncertainty in the stock assessment and biological parameters. Performances of three harvest control rules were compared on the basis of three management objectives (over 3, 10 and 25 years): i) the probability of maintaining spawning stock biomass above a level that can sustain maximum sustainable yield (MSY) on average, ii) the probability of achieving average catches between 0.8 MSY and 1.0 MSY, and iii) inter-annual variability in catches. The constant escapement strategy ( CE=0.5), constant fishing mortality strategy ( F=0.4) and constant catch ( CC=80000) were the most rational among the respective management scenarios. It is concluded that the short-term annual catch is suggested at 80000 t, and the potential total allowable catch for a stable yield could be set at 120000 t once the stock had recovered successfully. All the strategies considered in this study to achieve a `tolerable' balance between resource conservation and utilization have been based around the management objectives of the IOTC.

Multi-centennial upper-ocean heat content reconstruction using online data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, W. A.; Hakim, G. J.

2017-12-01

The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) provides an advanced paleoclimate ensemble data assimilation framework for multi-variate climate field reconstructions over the Common Era. Although reconstructions in this framework with full Earth system models remain prohibitively expensive, recent work has shown improved ensemble reconstruction validation using computationally inexpensive linear inverse models (LIMs). Here we leverage these techniques in pursuit of a new multi-centennial field reconstruction of upper-ocean heat content (OHC), synthesizing model dynamics with observational constraints from proxy records. OHC is an important indicator of internal climate variability and responds to planetary energy imbalances. Therefore, a consistent extension of the OHC record in time will help inform aspects of low-frequency climate variability. We use the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) last millennium simulations to derive the LIMs, and the PAGES2K v.2.0 proxy database to perform annually resolved reconstructions of upper-OHC, surface air temperature, and wind stress over the last 500 years. Annual OHC reconstructions and uncertainties for both the global mean and regional basins are compared against observational and reanalysis data. We then investigate differences in dynamical behavior at decadal and longer time scales between the reconstruction and simulations in the last-millennium Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). Preliminary investigation of 1-year forecast skill for an OHC-only LIM shows largely positive spatial grid point local anomaly correlations (LAC) with a global average LAC of 0.37. Compared to 1-year OHC persistence forecast LAC (global average LAC of 0.30), the LIM outperforms the persistence forecasts in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, the equatorial Atlantic, and in certain regions near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. In other regions, the forecast correlations are less than the persistence case but still positive overall.

Soil-test N recommendations augmented with PEST-optimized RZWQM simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malone, R.W.; Jaynes, D.B.; Ma, Liwang; Nolan, B.T.; Meek, D.W.; Karlen, D.L.

2010-01-01

Improved understanding of year-to-year late-spring soil nitrate test (LSNT) variability could help make it more attractive to producers. We test the ability of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) to simulate watershed-scale variability due to the LSNT, and we use the optimized model to simulate long-term field N dynamics under related conditions. Autoregressive techniques and the automatic parameter calibration program PEST were used to show that RZWQM simulates significantly lower nitrate concentration in discharge from LSNT treatments compared with areas receiving fall N fertilizer applications within the tile-drained Walnut Creek, Iowa, watershed (>5 mg N L-1 difference for the third year of the treatment, 1999). This result is similar to field-measured data from a paired watershed experiment. A statistical model we developed using RZWQM simulations from 1970 to 2005 shows that early-season precipitation and early-season temperature account for 90% of the interannual variation in LSNT-based fertilizer N rates. Long-term simulations with similar average N application rates for corn (Zea mays L.) (151 kg N ha-1) show annual average N loss in tile flow of 20.4, 22.2, and 27.3 kg N ha -1 for LSNT, single spring, and single fall N applications. These results suggest that (i) RZWQM is a promising tool to accurately estimate the water quality effects of LSNT; (ii) the majority of N loss difference between LSNT and fall applications is because more N remains in the root zone for crop uptake; and (iii) year-to-year LSNT-based N rate differences are mainly due to variation in early-season precipitation and temperature. Copyright ?? 2010 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Responses of stream nitrate and DOC loadings to hydrological forcing and climate change in an upland forest of the northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Shanley, James B.

2009-06-01

In coming decades, higher annual temperatures, increased growing season length, and increased dormant season precipitation are expected across the northeastern United States in response to anthropogenic forcing of global climate. We synthesized long-term stream hydrochemical data from the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Vermont, United States, to explore the relationship of catchment wetness to stream nitrate and DOC loadings. We modeled changes in growing season length and precipitation patterns to simulate future climate scenarios and to assess how stream nutrient loadings respond to climate change. Model results for the 2070-2099 time period suggest that stream nutrient loadings during both the dormant and growing seasons will respond to climate change. During a warmer climate, growing season stream fluxes (runoff +20%, nitrate +57%, and DOC +58%) increase as more precipitation (+28%) and quick flow (+39%) occur during a longer growing season (+43 days). During the dormant season, stream water and nutrient loadings decrease. Net annual stream runoff (+8%) and DOC loading (+9%) increases are commensurate with the magnitude of the average increase of net annual precipitation (+7%). Net annual stream water and DOC loadings are primarily affected by increased dormant season precipitation. In contrast, decreased annual loading of stream nitrate (-2%) reflects a larger effect of growing season controls on stream nitrate and the effects of lengthened growing seasons in a warmer climate. Our findings suggest that leaching of nitrate and DOC from catchment soils will be affected by anthropogenic climate forcing, thereby affecting the timing and magnitude of annual stream loadings in the northeastern United States.

Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño-Southern Oscillation at the global scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, Philip J.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Kummu, M.

2013-01-01

Floods are amongst the most dangerous natural hazards in terms of economic damage. Whilst a growing number of studies have examined how river floods are influenced by climate change, the role of natural modes of interannual climate variability remains poorly understood. We present the first global assessment of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual river floods, defined here as the peak daily discharge in a given year. The analysis was carried out by simulating daily gridded discharges using the WaterGAP model (Water – a Global Assessment and Prognosis), and examining statistical relationships between these discharges and ENSO indices. We found that, over the period 1958–2000, ENSO exerted a significant influence on annual floods in river basins covering over a third of the world's land surface, and that its influence on annual floods has been much greater than its influence on average flows. We show that there are more areas in which annual floods intensify with La Niña and decline with El Niño than vice versa. However, we also found that in many regions the strength of the relationships between ENSO and annual floods have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. We discuss the implications of these findings for science and management. Given the strong relationships between ENSO and annual floods, we suggest that more research is needed to assess relationships between ENSO and flood impacts (e.g. loss of lives or economic damage). Moreover, we suggest that in those regions where useful relationships exist, this information could be combined with ongoing advances in ENSO prediction research, in order to provide year-to-year probabilistic flood risk forecasts.

Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Long-Term Simulations of Lake Alkalinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sijin; Georgakakos, Konstantine P.; Schnoor, Jerald L.

1990-03-01

A first-order second-moment uncertainty analysis has been applied to two lakes in the Adirondack Park, New York, to assess the long-term response of lakes to acid deposition. Uncertainty due to parameter error and initial condition error was considered. Because the enhanced trickle-down (ETD) model is calibrated with only 3 years of field data and is used to simulate a 50-year period, the uncertainty in the lake alkalinity prediction is relatively large. When a best estimate of parameter uncertainty is used, the annual average alkalinity is predicted to be -11 ±28 μeq/L for Lake Woods and 142 ± 139 μeq/L for Lake Panther after 50 years. Hydrologic parameters and chemical weathering rate constants contributed most to the uncertainty of the simulations. Results indicate that the uncertainty in long-range predictions of lake alkalinity increased significantly over a 5- to 10-year period and then reached a steady state.

Modifications of exposure to ambient particulate matter: Tackling bias in using ambient concentration as surrogate with particle infiltration factor and ambient exposure factor.

PubMed

Shi, Shanshan; Chen, Chen; Zhao, Bin

2017-01-01

Numerous epidemiological studies explored health risks attributed to outdoor particle pollution. However, a number of these studies routinely utilized ambient concentration as a surrogate for personal exposure to ambient particles. This simplification ignored the difference between indoor and outdoor concentrations of outdoor originated particles and may bias the estimate of particle-health associations. Intending to avoid the bias, particle infiltration factor (F inf ), which describes the penetration of outdoor particles in indoor environment, and ambient exposure factor (α), which represents the fraction of outdoor particles people are truly exposed to, are utilized as modification factors to modify outdoor particle concentration. In this study, the probabilistic distributions of annually-averaged and seasonally-averaged F inf and α were assessed for residences and residents in Beijing. F inf of a single residence and α of an individual was estimated based on the mechanisms governing particle outdoor-to-indoor migration and human time-activity pattern. With this as the core deterministic model, probabilistic distributions of F inf and α were estimated via Monte Carlo Simulation. Annually-averaged F inf of PM 2.5 and PM 10 for residences in Beijing tended to be log-normally distributed as lnN(-0.74,0.14) and lnN(-0.94,0.15) with geometric mean value as 0.47 and 0.39, respectively. Annually-averaged α of PM 2.5 and PM 10 for Beijing residents also tended to be log-normally distributed as lnN(-0.59,0.12) and lnN(-0.73,0.13) with geometric mean value as 0.55 and 0.48, respectively. As for seasonally-averaged results, F inf and α of PM 2.5 and PM 10 were largest in summer and smallest in winter. The obvious difference between these modification factors and unity suggested that modifications of ambient particle concentration need to be considered in epidemiological studies to avoid misclassifications of personal exposure to ambient particles. Moreover, considering the inter-individual difference of F inf and α may lead to a brand new perspective of particle-health associations in further epidemiological study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring recharge in areas of seasonally frozen ground in the Columbia Plateau and Snake River Plain, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark; Josberger, Edward

2014-01-01

Seasonally frozen ground occurs over approximately one‑third of the contiguous United States, causing increased winter runoff. Frozen ground generally rejects potential groundwater recharge. Nearly all recharge from precipitation in semi-arid regions such as the Columbia Plateau and the Snake River Plain in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, occurs between October and March, when precipitation is most abundant and seasonally frozen ground is commonplace. The temporal and spatial distribution of frozen ground is expected to change as the climate warms. It is difficult to predict the distribution of frozen ground, however, because of the complex ways ground freezes and the way that snow cover thermally insulates soil, by keeping it frozen longer than it would be if it was not snow covered or, more commonly, keeping the soil thawed during freezing weather. A combination of satellite remote sensing and ground truth measurements was used with some success to investigate seasonally frozen ground at local to regional scales. The frozen-ground/snow-cover algorithm from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, combined with the 21-year record of passive microwave observations from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager onboard a Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellite, provided a unique time series of frozen ground. Periodically repeating this methodology and analyzing for trends can be a means to monitor possible regional changes to frozen ground that could occur with a warming climate. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System watershed model constructed for the upper Crab Creek Basin in the Columbia Plateau and Reynolds Creek basin on the eastern side of the Snake River Plain simulated recharge and frozen ground for several future climate scenarios. Frozen ground was simulated with the Continuous Frozen Ground Index, which is influenced by air temperature and snow cover. Model simulation results showed a decreased occurrence of frozen ground that coincided with increased temperatures in the future climate scenarios. Snow cover decreased in the future climate scenarios coincident with the temperature increases. Although annual precipitation was greater in future climate scenarios, thereby increasing the amount of water available for recharge over current (baseline) simulations, actual evapotranspiration also increased and reduced the amount of water available for recharge over baseline simulations. The upper Crab Creek model shows no significant trend in the rates of recharge in future scenarios. In these scenarios, annual precipitation is greater than the baseline averages, offsetting the effects of greater evapotranspiration in future scenarios. In the Reynolds Creek Basin simulations, precipitation was held constant in future scenarios and recharge was reduced by 1.0 percent for simulations representing average conditions in 2040 and reduced by 4.3 percent for simulations representing average conditions in 2080. The focus of the results of future scenarios for the Reynolds Creek Basin was the spatial components of selected hydrologic variables for this 92 square mile mountainous basin with 3,600 feet of relief. Simulation results from the watershed model using the Continuous Frozen Ground Index provided a relative measure of change in frozen ground, but could not identify the within-soil processes that allow or reject available water to recharge aquifers. The model provided a means to estimate what might occur in the future under prescribed climate scenarios, but more detailed energy-balance models of frozen-ground hydrology are needed to accurately simulate recharge under seasonally frozen ground and provide a better understanding of how changes in climate may alter infiltration.

GCM simulations of volcanic aerosol forcing. I - Climate changes induced by steady-state perturbations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pollack, James B.; Rind, David; Lacis, Andrew; Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

1993-01-01

The response of the climate system to a temporally and spatially constant amount of volcanic particles is simulated using a general circulation model (GCM). The optical depth of the aerosols is chosen so as to produce approximately the same amount of forcing as results from doubling the present CO2 content of the atmosphere and from the boundary conditions associated with the peak of the last ice age. The climate changes produced by long-term volcanic aerosol forcing are obtained by differencing this simulation and one made for the present climate with no volcanic aerosol forcing. The simulations indicate that a significant cooling of the troposphere and surface can occur at times of closely spaced multiple sulfur-rich volcanic explosions that span time scales of decades to centuries. The steady-state climate response to volcanic forcing includes a large expansion of sea ice, especially in the Southern Hemisphere; a resultant large increase in surface and planetary albedo at high latitudes; and sizable changes in the annually and zonally averaged air temperature.

The Regional Differences of Gpp Estimation by Solar Induced Fluorescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Lu, S.

2018-04-01

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) at large spatial scales is important for studying the global carbon cycle and global climate change. In this study, the relationship between solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and GPP is analysed in different levels of annual average temperature and annual total precipitation respectively using simple linear regression analysis. The results showed high correlation between SIF and GPP, when the area satisfied annual average temperature in the range of -5 °C to 15 °C and the annual total precipitation is higher than 200 mm. These results can provide a basis for future estimation of GPP research.

Nutrient transport in surface runoff and interflow from an aspen-birch forest

Treesearch

D.R. Timmons; E.S. Verry; R.E. Burwell; R.F. Holt

1977-01-01

Nutrients transported in surface runoff and interflow from an undisturbed aspen-birch (Populus tremuloides Michx., and Betula papyrifera Marsh.) forest (6.48 ha) in northern Minnesota were measured for 3 years. Surface runoff from snowmelt accounted for 97% of the average annual surface runoff and for 57% of the average annual...

Annual forest inventory estimates based on the moving average

Treesearch

Francis A. Roesch; James R. Steinman; Michael T. Thompson

2002-01-01

Three interpretations of the simple moving average estimator, as applied to the USDA Forest Service's annual forest inventory design, are presented. A corresponding approach to composite estimation over arbitrarily defined land areas and time intervals is given for each interpretation, under the assumption that the investigator is armed with only the spatial/...

18 CFR 381.104 - Annual adjustment of fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... data are available multiplied by the average monthly employee cost in the most recent fiscal year for... multiplied by the average monthly employee cost in the most recent fiscal year for which data are available... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Annual adjustment of...

18 CFR 381.104 - Annual adjustment of fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... data are available multiplied by the average monthly employee cost in the most recent fiscal year for... multiplied by the average monthly employee cost in the most recent fiscal year for which data are available... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Annual adjustment of...

18 CFR 381.104 - Annual adjustment of fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... data are available multiplied by the average monthly employee cost in the most recent fiscal year for... multiplied by the average monthly employee cost in the most recent fiscal year for which data are available... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Annual adjustment of...

18 CFR 381.104 - Annual adjustment of fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... data are available multiplied by the average monthly employee cost in the most recent fiscal year for... multiplied by the average monthly employee cost in the most recent fiscal year for which data are available... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Annual adjustment of...

18 CFR 381.104 - Annual adjustment of fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... data are available multiplied by the average monthly employee cost in the most recent fiscal year for... multiplied by the average monthly employee cost in the most recent fiscal year for which data are available... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Annual adjustment of...

Twenty-year trends in the prevalence of disability in China

PubMed Central

Chen, Gong; Song, Xinming; Liu, Jufen; Yan, Lijing; Du, Wei; Pang, Lihua; Zhang, Lei; Wu, Jilei; Zhang, Bingzi; Zhang, Jun

2011-01-01

Abstract Objective To evaluate changes in the age-adjusted prevalence of disability in transitional China from 1987 to 2006. Methods Data from nationally representative surveys conducted in 1987 and 2006 were used to calculate age-adjusted disability prevalence rates by applying appropriate sample weights and directly adjusting to the age distribution of the 1990 Chinese population. Trends were assessed in terms of average annual percentage change. Findings The estimated number of disabled people in China in 1987 and 2006 was 52.7 and 84.6 million, respectively, corresponding to a weighted prevalence of 4.9% and 6.5%. The age-adjusted prevalence of disability decreased by an average of 0.5% per year (average annual percentage change, AAPC: −0.5%; 95% confidence interval, CI: −0.7 to −0.4) during 1987–2006. However, it increased by an average of 0.3% (AAPC: 0.3%; 95% CI: 0.1 to 0.5) per year in males and by an average of 1.0% (AAPC: 1.0%; 95% CI: 0.8 to 1.2) per year among rural residents, whereas among females it showed an average annual decrease of 1.5% (AAPC: −1.5%; 95% CI: −1.7 to −1.3) and among urban residents, an average annual decrease of 3.9% (AAPC: −3.9%; 95% CI: −4.3 to −3.5). Despite significant declining trends for hearing and speech, intellectual and visual disabilities, the annual age-adjusted prevalence of physical and mental disabilities increased by an average of 11.2% (AAPC: 11.2%; 95% CI: 10.5 to 11.9) and 13.3% (AAPC: 13.3%; 95% CI: 10.7 to 16.2), respectively. Conclusion In China, the age-adjusted prevalence of disability has declined since 1987, with inconsistencies dependent on the type of disability. These findings call for continuing and specific efforts to prevent disabilities in China. PMID:22084524

Hospitalization for Suicide Ideation or Attempt: 2008-2015.

PubMed

Plemmons, Gregory; Hall, Matthew; Doupnik, Stephanie; Gay, James; Brown, Charlotte; Browning, Whitney; Casey, Robert; Freundlich, Katherine; Johnson, David P; Lind, Carrie; Rehm, Kris; Thomas, Susan; Williams, Derek

2018-06-01

Suicide ideation (SI) and suicide attempts (SAs) have been reported as increasing among US children over the last decade. We examined trends in emergency and inpatient encounters for SI and SA at US children's hospitals from 2008 to 2015. We used retrospective analysis of administrative billing data from the Pediatric Health Information System database. There were 115 856 SI and SA encounters during the study period. Annual percentage of all visits for SI and SA almost doubled, increasing from 0.66% in 2008 to 1.82% in 2015 (average annual increase 0.16 percentage points [95% confidence intervals (CIs) 0.15 to 0.17]). Significant increases were noted in all age groups but were higher in adolescents 15 to 17 years old (average annual increase 0.27 percentage points [95% CI 0.23 to 0.30]) and adolescents 12 to 14 years old (average annual increase 0.25 percentage points [95% CI 0.21 to 0.27]). Increases were noted in girls (average annual increase 0.14 percentage points [95% CI 0.13 to 0.15]) and boys (average annual increase 0.10 percentage points [95% CI 0.09 to 0.11]), but were higher for girls. Seasonal variation was also observed, with the lowest percentage of cases occurring during the summer and the highest during spring and fall. Encounters for SI and SA at US children's hospitals increased steadily from 2008 to 2015 and accounted for an increasing percentage of all hospital encounters. Increases were noted across all age groups, with consistent seasonal patterns that persisted over the study period. The growing impact of pediatric mental health disorders has important implications for children's hospitals and health care delivery systems. Copyright © 2018 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Annual estimates of water and solute export from 42 tributaries to the Yukon River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frederick Zanden,; Suzanne P. Anderson,; Striegl, Robert G.

2012-01-01

Annual export of 11 major and trace solutes for the Yukon River is found to be accurately determined based on summing 42 tributary contributions. These findings provide the first published estimates of tributary specific distribution of solutes within the Yukon River basin. First, we show that annual discharge of the Yukon River can be computed by summing calculated annual discharges from 42 tributaries. Annual discharge for the tributaries is calculated from the basin area and average annual precipitation over that area using a previously published regional regression equation. Based on tributary inputs, we estimate an average annual discharge for the Yukon River of 210 km3 year–1. This value is within 1% of the average measured annual discharge at the U.S. Geological Survey gaging station near the river terminus at Pilot Station, AK, for water years 2001 through 2005. Next, annual loads for 11 solutes are determined by combining annual discharge with point measurements of solute concentrations in tributary river water. Based on the sum of solutes in tributary water, we find that the Yukon River discharges approximately 33 million metric tons of dissolved solids each year at Pilot Station. Discharged solutes are dominated by cations calcium and magnesium (5.65 × 109 and 1.42 × 109 g year–1) and anions bicarbonate and sulphate (17.3 × 109 and 5.40 × 109 g year–1). These loads compare well with loads calculated independently at the three continuous gaging stations along the Yukon River. These findings show how annual solute yields vary throughout a major subarctic river basin and that accurate estimates of total river export can be determined from calculated tributary contributions.

Disease Burden Due to Herpes Zoster among Population Aged ≥50 Years Old in China: A Community Based Retrospective Survey.

PubMed

Li, Yan; An, Zhijie; Yin, Dapeng; Liu, Yanmin; Huang, Zhuoying; Xu, Jianfang; Ma, Yujie; Tu, Qiufeng; Li, Qi; Wang, Huaqing

2016-01-01

To understand the disease burden due to Herpes Zoster (HZ) among people aged ≥50 years old in China and provide baseline data for future similar studies, and provide evidence for development of herpes zoster vaccination strategy. Retrospective cohort study was conducted in 4 townships and one community. A questionnaire was used to collect information on incidence and cost of HZ among people aged ≥ 50 years old. The cumulative incidence rate was 22.6/1,000 among people aged ≥ 50 years old. The average annual incidence rate of HZ was 3.43/1,000 among people aged ≥ 50 years old in 2010-2012. Cumulative incidence and average annual incidence rate increased with age: the cumulative incidence of HZ among people aged ≥ 80 years old was 3.34 times of that among 50-years old (52.3/1000 vs 15.7/1,000); average annual incidence rate rises from 2.66/1,000 among 50-years old to 8.55/1,000 among 80-year old. Cumulative incidence and average annual incidence rate for females were higher than that for males (cumulative incidence, 26.5/1000 vs 18.7/1,000; annual incidence rate, 3.95/1000 vs 2.89/1,000). Cumulative incidence and average annual incidence rate in urban were higher than in rural (cumulative incidence, 39.5/1000 vs 17.2/1,000; annual incidence rate, 7.65/1000 vs 2.06/1,000). The hospitalization rate of HZ was 4.53%. And with the increase of age, the rate has an increasing trend. HZ costs 945,709.5 RMB in total, corresponding to 840.6 RMB per patient with a median cost of 385 RMB (interquartile range 171.7-795.6). Factors associated with cost included the first onset year, area, whether hospitalized and whether sequelae left. Incidence rate, complications, hospitalization rate and average cost of HZ increase with age. We recommend that the HZ vaccinations should target people aged ≥50 years old if Zoster vaccine is licensed in China.

Numerical experiments to explain multiscale hydrological responses to mountain pine beetle tree mortality in a headwater watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Penn, Colin A.; Bearup, Lindsay A.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Clow, David W.

2016-01-01

The effects of mountain pine beetle (MPB)-induced tree mortality on a headwater hydrologic system were investigated using an integrated physical modeling framework with a high-resolution computational grid. Simulations of MPB-affected and unaffected conditions, each with identical atmospheric forcing for a normal water year, were compared at multiple scales to evaluate the effects of scale on MPB-affected hydrologic systems. Individual locations within the larger model were shown to maintain hillslope-scale processes affecting snowpack dynamics, total evapotranspiration, and soil moisture that are comparable to several field-based studies and previous modeling work. Hillslope-scale analyses also highlight the influence of compensating changes in evapotranspiration and snow processes. Reduced transpiration in the Grey Phase of MPB-induced tree mortality was offset by increased late-summer evaporation, while overall snowpack dynamics were more dependent on elevation effects than MPB-induced tree mortality. At the watershed scale, unaffected areas obscured the magnitude of MPB effects. Annual water yield from the watershed increased during Grey Phase simulations by 11 percent; a difference that would be difficult to diagnose with long-term gage observations that are complicated by inter-annual climate variability. The effects on hydrology observed and simulated at the hillslope scale can be further damped at the watershed scale, which spans more life zones and a broader range of landscape properties. These scaling effects may change under extreme conditions, e.g., increased total MPB-affected area or a water year with above average snowpack.

Impact of Spatial Soil and Climate Input Data Aggregation on Regional Yield Simulations

PubMed Central

Hoffmann, Holger; Zhao, Gang; Asseng, Senthold; Bindi, Marco; Biernath, Christian; Constantin, Julie; Coucheney, Elsa; Dechow, Rene; Doro, Luca; Eckersten, Henrik; Gaiser, Thomas; Grosz, Balázs; Heinlein, Florian; Kassie, Belay T.; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Klein, Christian; Kuhnert, Matthias; Lewan, Elisabet; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Priesack, Eckart; Raynal, Helene; Roggero, Pier P.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Siebert, Stefan; Specka, Xenia; Tao, Fulu; Teixeira, Edmar; Trombi, Giacomo; Wallach, Daniel; Weihermüller, Lutz; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Ewert, Frank

2016-01-01

We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations. PMID:27055028

Impact of Spatial Soil and Climate Input Data Aggregation on Regional Yield Simulations.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Holger; Zhao, Gang; Asseng, Senthold; Bindi, Marco; Biernath, Christian; Constantin, Julie; Coucheney, Elsa; Dechow, Rene; Doro, Luca; Eckersten, Henrik; Gaiser, Thomas; Grosz, Balázs; Heinlein, Florian; Kassie, Belay T; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Klein, Christian; Kuhnert, Matthias; Lewan, Elisabet; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Priesack, Eckart; Raynal, Helene; Roggero, Pier P; Rötter, Reimund P; Siebert, Stefan; Specka, Xenia; Tao, Fulu; Teixeira, Edmar; Trombi, Giacomo; Wallach, Daniel; Weihermüller, Lutz; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Ewert, Frank

2016-01-01

We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations.

Estimating the potential health impact and costs of implementing a local policy for food procurement to reduce the consumption of sodium in the county of Los Angeles.

PubMed

Gase, Lauren N; Kuo, Tony; Dunet, Diane; Schmidt, Steven M; Simon, Paul A; Fielding, Jonathan E

2011-08-01

We examined approaches to reduce sodium content of food served in settings operated or funded by the government of the County of Los Angeles, California. We adapted health impact assessment methods to mathematically simulate various levels of reduction in the sodium content of food served by the County of Los Angeles and to estimate the reductions' potential impacts on mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) among food-service customers. We used data provided by county government food-service vendors to generate these simulations. Our analysis predicted that if the postulated sodium-reduction strategies were implemented, adults would consume, on average, 233 fewer milligrams of sodium each day. This would correspond to an average decrease of 0.71 millimeters of mercury in SBP among adult hypertensives, 388 fewer cases of uncontrolled hypertension in the study population, and an annual decrease of $629,724 in direct health care costs. Our findings suggest that a food-procurement policy can contribute to positive health and economic effects at the local level. Our approach may serve as an example of sodium-reduction analysis for other jurisdictions to follow.

Suspended-sediment yields from an unmined area and from mined areas before and after reclamation in Pennsylvania, June 1978-September 1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, L.A.; Hainly, R.A.

1989-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources, has collected hydrologic data from areas in Tioga, Clearfield, and Fayette Counties to determine the effects of surface coal mining on sediment yields. The data were collected from June 1978 through September 1983. Rainfall, streamflow and suspended-sediment data were collected with automatic recording and sampling equipment. Data were collected in Tioga County from an agricultural area that was unaffected by mining and from a forested area prior to surface mining. Data were collected from two areas affected by active surface mining in Tioga County and from an area in Clearfield County being mined by the contour-surface method. Data also were collected from three areas, Tioga, Clearfield, and Fayette Counties, during and after reclamation. The efficiencies of sediment-control pounds in Clearfield and Fayette Counties also were determined. The average annual sediment yield from the agricultural area in Tioga County, which was 35 percent forested, was 0.48 ton per acre per year, and the yield from the forested area prior to mining was 0.0036 ton per acre per year. The average annual sediment yields from the areas affected by active surface mining were 22 tons per acre from the improved haul road and 148 tons per acre from the unimproved haul road. The average annual sediment yield from the site in Clearfield County that had been prepared for mining was 6.3 tons per acre. The average annual sediment yield from the same site while it was being mined by the contour method was 5.5 tons per acre per year. The sediment-control pond reduced the average annual sediment yield to 0.50 ton per acre while the site was prepared for mining and to 0.14 ton per acre while the site was being mined. Because the active surface mining reduced the effective drainage area to the pond, the sediment yield decreased from 0.50 to 0.14 ton per acre. Average annual suspended-sediment yields from the reclaimed site in Tioga County were 1.0 ton per acre during the first year, when vegetation was becoming established, and 0.037 ton per acre during the second year, when vegetation was well established. The average annual sediment yield below a 21.2-acre, reclaimed, surface mine in Clearfield County that had been mined by the contour method was 15 tons per acre during the first year when vegetation was becoming established. However, the average annual sediment yield below a sediment-control pond at this reclaimed site in Clearfield County was 0.30 ton per acre. Data collected from a 4.2-acre reclaimed area that had been surface mined by the block-cut method in Fayette County showed that annual sediment yields from the area were 77 tons per acre in 1981 (no vegetation), 32 tons per acre in 1982 (sparse vegetation), and 1.0 ton per acre in 1983 (well-esatablished vegetation). The average annual yield below a sediment-control pond at the mine site in Fayette County was 0.19 ton per acre during the 27 months of data collection.

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R. M.; Kuo, E.

1976-01-01

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

Effect of Simulated Anthonomus signatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Injury on Strawberries (Fragaria × ananassa) Grown in Southeastern Plasticulture Production.

PubMed

McPhie, Douglas; Burrack, Hannah J

2017-02-01

Female strawberry bud weevils (Anthonomus signatus Say) oviposit in developing flower buds of strawberries (Fragaria spp.), caneberries (Rubus spp.), and red bud (Cercis canadensis). After laying a single egg, weevils will girdle or "clip" the buds at the pedicel, killing the bud and preventing fruit development. This injury is of concern to commercial strawberry growers, who typically assume the loss of one clipped bud is the loss of one average sized fruit, causing the economic threshold to be set extremely low. There is evidence of compensation in some cultivars of strawberries, but research has previously only been conducted in perennial strawberry production. The majority of strawberries in the southeastern United States are grown in annual plasticulture systems. We assessed the ability of five strawberry cultivars commonly grown in annual plasticulture to compensate for A. signatus injury by removing buds at different growth stages. There was no effect of bud removal on total yield in any of the cultivars tested. Harvest timing was affected by simulated A. signatus damage in some cultivars, which may be an important consideration for direct market strawberry growers. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

High-Performance Integrated Control of water quality and quantity in urban water reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.; Goedbloed, A.

2015-11-01

This paper contributes a novel High-Performance Integrated Control framework to support the real-time operation of urban water supply storages affected by water quality problems. We use a 3-D, high-fidelity simulation model to predict the main water quality dynamics and inform a real-time controller based on Model Predictive Control. The integration of the simulation model into the control scheme is performed by a model reduction process that identifies a low-order, dynamic emulator running 4 orders of magnitude faster. The model reduction, which relies on a semiautomatic procedural approach integrating time series clustering and variable selection algorithms, generates a compact and physically meaningful emulator that can be coupled with the controller. The framework is used to design the hourly operation of Marina Reservoir, a 3.2 Mm3 storm-water-fed reservoir located in the center of Singapore, operated for drinking water supply and flood control. Because of its recent formation from a former estuary, the reservoir suffers from high salinity levels, whose behavior is modeled with Delft3D-FLOW. Results show that our control framework reduces the minimum salinity levels by nearly 40% and cuts the average annual deficit of drinking water supply by about 2 times the active storage of the reservoir (about 4% of the total annual demand).

Magnitude and frequency of flooding on small urban watersheds in the Tampa Bay area, west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lopez, M.A.; Woodham, W.M.

1983-01-01

Hydrologic data collected on nine small urban watersheds in the Tampa Bay area of west-central Florida and a method for estimating peak discharges in the study area are described. The watersheds have mixed land use and range in size from 0.34 to 3.45 square miles. Watershed soils, land use, and storm-drainage system data are described. Urban development ranged from a sparsely populated area with open-ditch storm sewers and 19% impervious area to a completely sewered watershed with 61% impervious cover. The U.S. Geological Survey natural-basin and urban-watershed models were calibrated for the nine watersheds using 5-minute interval rainfall data from the Tampa, Florida, National Weather Service rain gage to simulate annual peak discharge for the period 1906-52. A log-Pearson Type III frequency analysis of the simulated annual maximum discharge was used to determine the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year flood discharges for each watershed. Flood discharges were related in a multiple-linear regression to drainage area, channel slope, detention storage area, and an urban-development factor determined by the extent of curb and gutter street drainage and storm-sewer system. The average standard error for the regional relations ranged from + or - 32 to + or - 42%. (USGS)

Snowmelt in the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, F.

2016-12-01

Snow accumulation and melting are important hydrological processes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Qualification of snow dynamics is helpful for water resources management. In this study, a case study of snow and runoff modeling in a glaciated catchment in south Tibet was firstly conducted and showed that MODIS snow cover data can be successfully used for snow model calibration. Following the method, snow accumulation and melting in the TP was simulated using a distributed degree-day model through zonal calibration. The simulation results showed that the spatial pattern of snowmelt is basically in accordance with that of precipitation with discrepancy mainly introduced by elevation and temperature lapse. During 1979-2010, average annual precipitation and snowmelt in the TP was 394 and 80 mm/yr, respectively, indicating that about 1/5 of the precipitation in the TP supplied the rivers, lakes, and groundwater etc in the form of snowmelt. Seasonal snowmelt accounted for 35%, 37%, 26%, and 2% of the annual gross in spring, summer, fall, and winter, respectively, with net accumulation of snow in fall and winter added to the snowmelt in the following spring and summer. The overall changing trends of annual precipitation and snowmelt in the TP were 4.1 and 0.4 mm/yr, respectively, with the most intensive snowmelt increase of about 3.0 mm/yr in the upstream of Tarim river basin (UTA) but decrease of about -1.4 mm/yr in the upstream of Mekong river basin (UME) due to the interacting impacts of temperature and precipitation. Significant increasing trend of snowmelt in spring shown in the UTA may benefit the local water use for irrigation etc.

Determining storm sampling requirements for improving precision of annual load estimates of nutrients from a small forested watershed.

PubMed

Ide, Jun'ichiro; Chiwa, Masaaki; Higashi, Naoko; Maruno, Ryoko; Mori, Yasushi; Otsuki, Kyoichi

2012-08-01

This study sought to determine the lowest number of storm events required for adequate estimation of annual nutrient loads from a forested watershed using the regression equation between cumulative load (∑L) and cumulative stream discharge (∑Q). Hydrological surveys were conducted for 4 years, and stream water was sampled sequentially at 15-60-min intervals during 24 h in 20 events, as well as weekly in a small forested watershed. The bootstrap sampling technique was used to determine the regression (∑L-∑Q) equations of dissolved nitrogen (DN) and phosphorus (DP), particulate nitrogen (PN) and phosphorus (PP), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), and suspended solid (SS) for each dataset of ∑L and ∑Q. For dissolved nutrients (DN, DP, DIN), the coefficient of variance (CV) in 100 replicates of 4-year average annual load estimates was below 20% with datasets composed of five storm events. For particulate nutrients (PN, PP, SS), the CV exceeded 20%, even with datasets composed of more than ten storm events. The differences in the number of storm events required for precise load estimates between dissolved and particulate nutrients were attributed to the goodness of fit of the ∑L-∑Q equations. Bootstrap simulation based on flow-stratified sampling resulted in fewer storm events than the simulation based on random sampling and showed that only three storm events were required to give a CV below 20% for dissolved nutrients. These results indicate that a sampling design considering discharge levels reduces the frequency of laborious chemical analyses of water samples required throughout the year.

LVC Architecture Roadmap Implementation - Results of the First Two Years

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

NOTES Presented at the Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization?s (SISO) Spring Simulation Interoperability Workshop ( SIW ), 26-30 March...presented at the semi-annual Simulation Interoperability Workshops ( SIWs ) and the annual Interservice/Industry Training, Simulation & Education Conference...I/ITSEC), as well as other venues. For example, a full-day workshop on the initial progress of the effort was conducted at the 2010 Spring SIW [2

Analytical expressions for maximum wind turbine average power in a Rayleigh wind regime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carlin, P.W.

Average or expectation values for annual power of a wind turbine in a Rayleigh wind regime are calculated and plotted as a function of cut-out wind speed. This wind speed is expressed in multiples of the annual average wind speed at the turbine installation site. To provide a common basis for comparison of all real and imagined turbines, the Rayleigh-Betz wind machine is postulated. This machine is an ideal wind machine operating with the ideal Betz power coefficient of 0.593 in a Rayleigh probability wind regime. All other average annual powers are expressed in fractions of that power. Cases consideredmore » include: (1) an ideal machine with finite power and finite cutout speed, (2) real machines operating in variable speed mode at their maximum power coefficient, and (3) real machines operating at constant speed.« less

Feedbacks between air pollution and weather, part 2: Effects on chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makar, P. A.; Gong, W.; Hogrefe, C.; Zhang, Y.; Curci, G.; Žabkar, R.; Milbrandt, J.; Im, U.; Balzarini, A.; Baró, R.; Bianconi, R.; Cheung, P.; Forkel, R.; Gravel, S.; Hirtl, M.; Honzak, L.; Hou, A.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Langer, M.; Moran, M. D.; Pabla, B.; Pérez, J. L.; Pirovano, G.; San José, R.; Tuccella, P.; Werhahn, J.; Zhang, J.; Galmarini, S.

2015-08-01

Fully-coupled air-quality models running in ;feedback; and ;no-feedback; configurations were compared against each other and observation network data as part of Phase 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative. In the ;no-feedback; mode, interactions between meteorology and chemistry through the aerosol direct and indirect effects were disabled, with the models reverting to climatologies of aerosol properties, or a no-aerosol weather simulation, while in the ;feedback; mode, the model-generated aerosols were allowed to modify the models' radiative transfer and/or cloud formation processes. Annual simulations with and without feedbacks were conducted for domains in North America for the years 2006 and 2010, and for Europe for the year 2010. Comparisons against observations via annual statistics show model-to-model variation in performance is greater than the within-model variation associated with feedbacks. However, during the summer and during intense emission events such as the Russian forest fires of 2010, feedbacks have a significant impact on the chemical predictions of the models. The aerosol indirect effect was usually found to dominate feedbacks compared to the direct effect. The impacts of direct and indirect effects were often shown to be in competition, for predictions of ozone, particulate matter and other species. Feedbacks were shown to result in local and regional shifts of ozone-forming chemical regime, between NOx- and VOC-limited environments. Feedbacks were shown to have a substantial influence on biogenic hydrocarbon emissions and concentrations: North American simulations incorporating both feedbacks resulted in summer average isoprene concentration decreases of up to 10%, while European direct effect simulations during the Russian forest fire period resulted in grid average isoprene changes of -5 to +12.5%. The atmospheric transport and chemistry of large emitting sources such as plumes from forest fires and large cities were shown to be strongly impacted by the presence or absence of feedback mechanisms in the model simulations. Summertime model performance for ozone and other gases was improved through the inclusion of indirect effect feedbacks, while performance for particulate matter was degraded, suggesting that current parameterizations for in- and below cloud processes, once the cloud locations become more directly influenced by aerosols, may over- or under-predict the strength of these processes. Process parameterization-level comparisons of fully coupled feedback models are therefore recommended for future work, as well as further studies using these models for the simulations of large scale urban/industrial and/or forest fire plumes.

Stratigraphic evidence of desertification in the west-central Great Plains within the past 1000 yr

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madole, R.F.

1994-01-01

Stratigraphic and geomorphic relations, archaeological data, and eight radiocarbon ages at five widely scattered localities in northeastern Colorado indicate that eolian sand was mobilized over broad areas within the past 1000 yr. The mobilization began after 1 ka, was episodic, and ended at some as yet undetermined time prior to the latter part of the 19th century. Given that climate-model simulations suggest only slight variation in average surface temperature and annual precipitation in this region during the past 1000 yr, this part of the Great Plains evidently is near the threshold of widespread eolian sand transport under the present climate. -Author

1998 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-01-01

1998 ANNUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT Microwave imagery of Typhoon Rex (06W) as it passed through the Bonin Islands, taken at 0800Z on 28 August... DAVE ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 5.3 TESTING AND RESULTS...weighting the forecasts given by XTRP and CLIM. 5.2.5.2 DYNAMIC AVERAGE ( DAVE ) A simple average of all dynamic forecast aids: NOGAPS (NGPS), Bracknell

Forest statistics for Florida, 1987

Treesearch

Mark J. Brown; Michael T. Thompson

1988-01-01

Since 1980, area of timberland in Florida was decreased by 4 percent to less than 15.0 million acres. Area of nonindustrial private forest land has declined 12 percent to 7.1 million acres. Area harvested and retained in timberland averaged 296,000 acres annually. An average of 272,000 acres regenerated annually. 72 percent of which occurred through artificial methods...

Anatomy of backcountry management costs

Treesearch

Herbert E Echelberger; Harriet J. Plumley; Harriet J. Plumley

1986-01-01

Operation and management costs for several dispersed overnight site locations and backcountry trails in the White Mountain National Forest were studied. Average annual costs ranged from $200 to $1,500 per mile for trails and from $0.35 to $4.29 per visitor for overnight sites. Average annual costs for trails and overnight sites increased with elevation and use levels,...

40 CFR 76.5 - NOX emission limitations for Group 1 boilers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... wall-fired boiler (other than units applying cell burner technology) shall not discharge, or allow to... input on an annual average basis for tangentially fired boilers. (2) 0.50 lb/mmBtu of heat input on an annual average basis for dry bottom wall-fired boilers (other than units applying cell burner technology...

Green strips or vegetative fuel breaks

Treesearch

Loren St. John; Dan Ogle

2009-01-01

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, between 1998 and 2008 there were on average 65,581 fires per year and an average of 6,114,135 acres burned each year in the United States. Rangelands in the western United States have been invaded by many annual weed species including cheatgrass, an introduced winter annual grass that produces large quantities of...

Nutrient loading to Lewisville Lake, north-central Texas, 1984-87

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gain, W.S.; Baldys, Stanley

1995-01-01

The estimated long-term (1974-89 water years) average annual total nitrogen load (excluding loads from sewage-treatment plants in ungaged areas) is 11,800 pounds per day. The estimated long-term (1974 89 water years) average annual total phosphorus load (excluding loads from sewage-treatment plants in ungaged areas) is 1,100 pounds per day.

Examination of the Armagh Observatory Annual Mean Temperature Record, 1844-2004

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2006-01-01

The long-term annual mean temperature record (1844-2004) of the Armagh Observatory (Armagh, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom) is examined for evidence of systematic variation, in particular, as related to solar/geomagnetic forcing and secular variation. Indeed, both are apparent in the temperature record. Moving averages for 10 years of temperature are found to highly correlate against both 10-year moving averages of the aa-geomagnetic index and sunspot number, having correlation coefficients of approx. 0.7, inferring that nearly half the variance in the 10-year moving average of temperature can be explained by solar/geomagnetic forcing. The residuals appear episodic in nature, with cooling seen in the 1880s and again near 1980. Seven of the last 10 years of the temperature record has exceeded 10 C, unprecedented in the overall record. Variation of sunspot cyclic averages and 2-cycle moving averages of temperature strongly associate with similar averages for the solar/geomagnetic cycle, with the residuals displaying an apparent 9-cycle variation and a steep rise in temperature associated with cycle 23. Hale cycle averages of temperature for even-odd pairs of sunspot cycles correlate against similar averages for the solar/geomagnetic cycle and, especially, against the length of the Hale cycle. Indications are that annual mean temperature will likely exceed 10 C over the next decade.

Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change.

PubMed

Gregory, J M; Huybrechts, P

2006-07-15

Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding 4.5+/-0.9K in Greenland and 3.1+/-0.8K in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7m.

High-resolution multi-model projections of onshore wind resources over Portugal under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogueira, Miguel; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Tomé, Ricardo; Cardoso, Rita M.

2018-05-01

We present a detailed evaluation of wind energy density (WED) over Portugal, based on the EURO-CORDEX database of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Most RCMs showed reasonable accuracy in reproducing the observed near-surface wind speed. The climatological patterns of WED displayed large sub-regional heterogeneity, with higher values over coastal regions and steep orography. Subsequently, we investigated the future changes of WED throughout the twenty-first century, considering mid- and end-century periods, and two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). On the yearly average, the multi-model ensemble WED changes were below 10% (15%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). However, the projected WED anomalies displayed strong seasonality, dominated by low positive values in summer (< 10% for both scenarios), negative values in winter and spring (up to - 10% (- 20%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)), and stronger negative anomalies in autumn (up to - 25% (- 35%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)). These projected WED anomalies displayed large sub-regional variability. The largest reductions (and lowest increases) are linked to the northern and central-eastern elevated terrain, and the southwestern coast. In contrast, the largest increases (and lowest reductions) are linked to the central-western orographic features of moderate elevation. The projections also showed changes in inter-annual variability of WED, with small increases for annual averages, but with distinct behavior when considering year-to-year variability over a specific season: small increases in winter, larger increases in summer, slight decrease in autumn, and no relevant change in spring. The changes in inter-annual variability also displayed strong dependence on the underlying terrain. Finally, we found significant model spread in the magnitude of projected WED anomalies and inter-annual variability, affecting even the signal of the changes.

Low-head hydropower assessment of the Brazilian State of São Paulo

USGS Publications Warehouse

Artan, Guleid A.; Cushing, W. Matthew; Mathis, Melissa L.; Tieszen, Larry L.

2014-01-01

This study produced a comprehensive estimate of the magnitude of hydropower potential available in the streams that drain watersheds entirely within the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Because a large part of the contributing area is outside of São Paulo, the main stem of the Paraná River was excluded from the assessment. Potential head drops were calculated from the Digital Terrain Elevation Data,which has a 1-arc-second resolution (approximately 30-meter resolution at the equator). For the conditioning and validation of synthetic stream channels derived from the Digital Elevation Model datasets, hydrography data (in digital format) supplied by the São Paulo State Department of Energy and the Agência Nacional de Águas were used. Within the study area there were 1,424 rain gages and 123 streamgages with long-term data records. To estimate average yearly streamflow, a hydrologic regionalization system that divides the State into 21 homogeneous basins was used. Stream segments, upstream areas, and mean annual rainfall were estimated using geographic information systems techniques. The accuracy of the flows estimated with the regionalization models was validated. Overall, simulated streamflows were significantly correlated with the observed flows but with a consistent underestimation bias. When the annual mean flows from the regionalization models were adjusted upward by 10 percent, average streamflow estimation bias was reduced from -13 percent to -4 percent. The sum of all the validated stream reach mean annual hydropower potentials in the 21 basins is 7,000 megawatts (MW). Hydropower potential is mainly concentrated near the Serra do Mar mountain range and along the Tietê River. The power potential along the Tietê River is mainly at sites with medium and high potentials, sites where hydropower has already been harnessed. In addition to the annual mean hydropower estimates, potential hydropower estimates with flow rates with exceedance probabilities of 40 percent, 60 percent, and 90 percent were made.

Annual and longitudinal variations of the Pacific North Equatorial Countercurrent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lolk, Nina K.

1992-01-01

The climatological annual cycle of the Pacific North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) simulated by an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) was studied. The longitudinal variation of transports, degree of geostrophy, and the relationship between Ekman pumping and vertical displacement of the thermocline were emphasized. The longitudinal variation was explored using six sections along 150 deg E, 180 deg, 160 deg W, 140 deg W, 125 deg W, and 110 deg W. A primitive equation OGCM of the Pacific Ocean was run for three years and the fields used were from the third year. The fields consisted of zonal, meridional, and vertical current components and temperature and salinity averaged every three days. The model was forced with the Hellerman and Rosenstein climatological wind stress. The mean annual eastward transport (19.9 Sv) was largest at 160 deg W. The maximum-current boundaries along 160 deg W were 9.2 deg N (1.0 deg), 5.1 deg N (1.1 deg), and 187 m (90.6 m). The annual-cycle amplitude of the NECC was greatest between 160 deg W and 140 deg W. Although the NECC is geostrophic to the first order, deviations from geostrophy were found in the boreal spring and summer near the southern boundary and near the surface. Meridional local acceleration played a role between 3 deg N-5 deg N.

The relative contribution of waves, tides, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels on U.S. West Coast sandy beaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Serafin, Katherine A.; Ruggiero, Peter; Stockdon, Hilary F.

2017-01-01

To better understand how individual processes combine to cause flooding and erosion events, we investigate the relative contribution of tides, waves, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels (TWLs) at the shoreline of U.S. West Coast sandy beaches. Extreme TWLs, defined as the observed annual maximum event and the simulated 100 year return level event, peak in Washington, and are on average larger in Washington and Oregon than in California. The relative contribution of wave-induced and still water levels (SWL) to the 100 year TWL event is similar to that of the annual maximum event; however, the contribution of storm surge to the SWL doubles across events. Understanding the regional variability of TWLs will lead to a better understanding of how sea level rise, changes in storminess, and possible changes in the frequency of major El Niños may impact future coastal flooding and erosion along the U.S. West Coast and elsewhere.

Precipitation and Runoff Simulations of the Carson Range and Pine Nut Mountains, and Updated Estimates of Ground-Water Inflow and the Ground-Water Budgets for Basin-Fill Aquifers of Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada, and Alpine County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jeton, Anne E.; Maurer, Douglas K.

2007-01-01

Recent estimates of ground-water inflow to the basin-fill aquifers of Carson Valley, Nevada, and California, from the adjacent Carson Range and Pine Nut Mountains ranged from 22,000 to 40,000 acre-feet per year using water-yield and chloride-balance methods. In this study, watershed models were developed for watersheds with perennial streams and for watersheds with ephemeral streams in the Carson Range and Pine Nut Mountains to provide an independent estimate of ground-water inflow. This report documents the development and calibration of the watershed models, presents model results, compares the results with recent estimates of ground-water inflow to the basin-fill aquifers of Carson Valley, and presents updated estimates of the ground-water budget for basin-fill aquifers of Carson Valley. The model used for the study was the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, a physically based, distributed-parameter model designed to simulate precipitation and snowmelt runoff as well as snowpack accumulation and snowmelt processes. Geographic Information System software was used to manage spatial data, characterize model drainages, and to develop Hydrologic Response Units. Models were developed for * Two watersheds with gaged perennial streams in the Carson Range and two watersheds with gaged perennial streams in the Pine Nut Mountains using measured daily mean runoff, * Ten watersheds with ungaged perennial streams using estimated daily mean runoff, * Ten watershed with ungaged ephemeral streams in the Carson Range, and * A large area of ephemeral runoff near the Pine Nut Mountains. Models developed for the gaged watersheds were used as index models to guide the calibration of models for ungaged watersheds. Model calibration was constrained by daily mean runoff for 4 gaged watersheds and for 10 ungaged watersheds in the Carson Range estimated in a previous study. The models were further constrained by annual precipitation volumes estimated in a previous study to provide estimates of ground-water inflow using similar water input. The calibration periods were water years 1990-2002 for watersheds in the Carson Range, and water years 1981-97 for watersheds in the Pine Nut Mountains. Daily mean values for water years 1990-2002 were then simulated using the calibrated watershed models in the Pine Nut Mountains. The daily mean values of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, and ground-water inflow simulated from the watershed models were summed to provide annual mean rates and volumes for each year of the simulations, and mean annual rates and volumes computed for water years 1990-2002. Mean annual bias for the period of record for models of Daggett Creek and Fredericksburg Canyon watersheds, two gaged perennial watersheds in the Carson Range, was within 4 percent and relative errors were about 6 and 12 percent, respectively. Model fit was not as satisfactory for two gaged perennial watersheds, Pine Nut and Buckeye Creeks, in the Pine Nut Mountains. The Pine Nut Creek watershed model had a large negative mean annual bias and a relative error of -11 percent, underestimated runoff for all years but the wet years in the latter part of the record, but adequately simulated the bulk of the spring runoff most of the years. The Buckeye Creek watershed model overestimated mean annual runoff with a relative error of about -5 percent when water year 1994 was removed from the analysis because it had a poor record. The bias and error of the calibrated models were within generally accepted limits for watershed models, indicating the simulated rates and volumes of runoff and ground-water inflow were reasonable. The total mean annual ground-water inflow to Carson Valley computed using estimates simulated by the watershed models was 38,000 acre-feet, including ground-water inflow from Eagle Valley, recharge from precipitation on eolian sand and gravel deposits, and ground-water recharge from precipitation on the western alluvial fans. The estimate was in close agreement with that obtained from the chloride-balance method, 40,000 acre-feet, but was considerably greater than the estimate obtained from the water-yield method, 22,000 acre-feet. The similar estimates obtained from the watershed models and chloride-balance method, two relatively independent methods, provide more confidence that they represent a reasonably accurate volume of ground-water inflow to Carson Valley. However, the two estimates are not completely independent because they use similar distributions of mean annual precipitation. Annual ground-water recharge of the basin-fill aquifers in Carson Valley ranged from 51,000 to 54,000 acre-feet computed using estimates of ground-water inflow to Carson Valley simulated from the watershed models combined with previous estimates of other ground-water budget components. Estimates of mean annual ground-water discharge range from 44,000 to 47,000 acre-feet. The low range estimate for ground-water recharge, 51,000 acre-feet per year, is most similar to the high range estimate for ground-water discharge, 47,000 acre-feet per year. Thus, an average annual volume of about 50,000 acre-feet is a reasonable estimate for mean annual ground-water recharge to and discharge from the basin-fill aquifers in Carson Valley. The results of watershed models indicate that significant interannual variability in the volumes of ground-water inflow is caused by climate variations. During multi-year drought conditions, the watershed simulations indicate that ground-water recharge could be as much as 80 percent less than the mean annual volume of 50,000 acre-feet.

Modelling the potential impacts of afforestation on extreme precipitation over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odoulami, Romaric C.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Ajayi, Ayodele E.

2018-05-01

This study examines how afforestation in West Africa could influence extreme precipitation over the region, with a focus on widespread extreme rainfall events (WEREs) over the afforestation area. Two regional climate models (RegCM and WRF) were applied to simulate the present-day climate (1971-2000) and future climate (2031-2060, under IPCC RCP 4.5 emission scenario) with and without afforestation of the Savannah zone in West Africa. The models give a realistic simulation of precipitation indices and WEREs over the subcontinent. On average, the regional models projected future decreases in total annual wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and total annual daily precipitation greater than or equal to the 95th percentile of daily precipitation threshold (R95pTOT) and increases in maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) over Sahel. Over Savannah, the models projected decreases in PRCPTOT but increases in R95pTOT and CDD. Also, an increase in WEREs frequency is projected over west, central and east Savannah, except that RegCM simulated a decrease in WEREs over east Savannah. In general, afforestation increases PRCPTOT and R95pTOT but decreases CDD over the afforestation area. The forest-induced increases in PRCPTOT and decreases in CDD affect all ecological zones in West Africa. However, the simulations show that afforestation of Savannah also decreases R95pTOT over the Guinea Coast. It further increases WEREs over west and central Savannah and decreases them over east Savannah because of the local decrease in R95pTOT. Results of this study suggest that the future changes in characteristics of extreme precipitation events over West Africa are sensitive to the ongoing land modification.

Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buccola, Norman L.; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2016-04-01

A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990-1999) and future (2059-2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam's spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake's surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake's surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered salmonids. A hypothetical floating surface withdrawal at Detroit Dam improved temperature control in summer and autumn (0.6 °C warmer in summer, 0.6 °C cooler in autumn compared to existing structures) without altering release rates or lake level management rules.

Streamflow Simulations and Percolation Estimates Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for Selected Basins in North-Central Nebraska, 1940-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strauch, Kellan R.; Linard, Joshua I.

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Elkhorn, Lower Elkhorn, Upper Loup, Lower Loup, Middle Niobrara, Lower Niobrara, Lewis and Clark, and Lower Platte North Natural Resources Districts, used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate streamflow and estimate percolation in north-central Nebraska to aid development of long-term strategies for management of hydrologically connected ground and surface water. Although groundwater models adequately simulate subsurface hydrologic processes, they often are not designed to simulate the hydrologically complex processes occurring at or near the land surface. The use of watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, which are designed specifically to simulate surface and near-subsurface processes, can provide helpful insight into the effects of surface-water hydrology on the groundwater system. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated for five stream basins in the Elkhorn-Loup Groundwater Model study area in north-central Nebraska to obtain spatially variable estimates of percolation. Six watershed models were calibrated to recorded streamflow in each subbasin by modifying the adjustment parameters. The calibrated parameter sets were then used to simulate a validation period; the validation period was half of the total streamflow period of record with a minimum requirement of 10 years. If the statistical and water-balance results for the validation period were similar to those for the calibration period, a model was considered satisfactory. Statistical measures of each watershed model's performance were variable. These objective measures included the Nash-Sutcliffe measure of efficiency, the ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of the measured data, and an estimate of bias. The model met performance criteria for the bias statistic, but failed to meet statistical adequacy criteria for the other two performance measures when evaluated at a monthly time step. A primary cause of the poor model validation results was the inability of the model to reproduce the sustained base flow and streamflow response to precipitation that was observed in the Sand Hills region. The watershed models also were evaluated based on how well they conformed to the annual mass balance (precipitation equals the sum of evapotranspiration, streamflow/runoff, and deep percolation). The model was able to adequately simulate annual values of evapotranspiration, runoff, and precipitation in comparison to reported values, which indicates the model may provide reasonable estimates of annual percolation. Mean annual percolation estimated by the model as basin averages varied within the study area from a maximum of 12.9 inches in the Loup River Basin to a minimum of 1.5 inches in the Shell Creek Basin. Percolation also varied within the studied basins; basin headwaters tended to have greater percolation rates than downstream areas. This variance in percolation rates was mainly was because of the predominance of sandy, highly permeable soils in the upstream areas of the modeled basins.

Observations and simulations of the ionospheric lunar tide: Seasonal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedatella, N. M.

2014-07-01

The seasonal variability of the ionospheric lunar tide is investigated using a combination of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) observations and thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) simulations. The present study focuses on the seasonal variability of the lunar tide in the ionosphere and its potential connection to the occurrence of stratosphere sudden warmings (SSWs). COSMIC maximum F region electron density (NmF2) and total electron content observations reveal a primarily annual variation of the ionospheric lunar tide, with maximum amplitudes occurring at low latitudes during December-February. Simulations of the lunar tide climatology in TIME-GCM display a similar annual variability as the COSMIC observations. This leads to the conclusion that the annual variability of the lunar tide in the ionosphere is not solely due to the occurrence of SSWs. Rather, the annual variability of the lunar tide in the ionosphere is generated by the seasonal variability of the lunar tide at E region altitudes. However, compared to the observations, the ionospheric lunar tide annual variability is weaker in the climatological simulations which is attributed to the occurrence of SSWs during the majority of the years included in the observations. Introducing a SSW into the TIME-GCM simulation leads to an additional enhancement of the lunar tide during Northern Hemisphere winter, increasing the lunar tide annual variability and resulting in an annual variability that is more consistent with the observations. The occurrence of SSWs can therefore potentially bias lunar tide climatologies, and it is important to consider these effects in studies of the lunar tide in the atmosphere and ionosphere.

New insight of Arctic cloud parameterization from regional climate model simulations, satellite-based, and drifting station data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, D.; Dethloff, K.; Dorn, W.; Rinke, A.; Wu, D. L.

2016-05-01

Cloud observations from the CloudSat and CALIPSO satellites helped to explain the reduced total cloud cover (Ctot) in the atmospheric regional climate model HIRHAM5 with modified cloud physics. Arctic climate conditions are found to be better reproduced with (1) a more efficient Bergeron-Findeisen process and (2) a more generalized subgrid-scale variability of total water content. As a result, the annual cycle of Ctot is improved over sea ice, associated with an almost 14% smaller area average than in the control simulation. The modified cloud scheme reduces the Ctot bias with respect to the satellite observations. Except for autumn, the cloud reduction over sea ice improves low-level temperature profiles compared to drifting station data. The HIRHAM5 sensitivity study highlights the need for improving accuracy of low-level (<700 m) cloud observations, as these clouds exert a strong impact on the near-surface climate.

Sea Surface Temperature of the mid-Piacenzian Ocean: A Data-Model Comparison

PubMed Central

Dowsett, Harry J.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Chandler, Mark A.; Sohl, Linda E.; Bentsen, Mats; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Chan, Wing-Le; Contoux, Camille; Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Jonas, Jeff A.; Jost, Anne; Kamae, Youichi; Lohmann, Gerrit; Lunt, Daniel J.; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Ramstein, Gilles; Riesselman, Christina R.; Robinson, Marci M.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Stepanek, Christian; Strother, Stephanie L.; Ueda, Hiroaki; Yan, Qing; Zhang, Zhongshi

2013-01-01

The mid-Piacenzian climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth relative to the last million years, and shares similarities with the climate projected for the end of the 21st century. As such, it represents a natural experiment from which we can gain insight into potential climate change impacts, enabling more informed policy decisions for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we present the first systematic comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) between an ensemble of eight climate model simulations produced as part of PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) with the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project mean annual SST field. Our results highlight key regional and dynamic situations where there is discord between the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and the climate model simulations. These differences have led to improved strategies for both experimental design and temporal refinement of the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. PMID:23774736

Discrete event simulation model of sudden cardiac death predicts high impact of preventive interventions.

PubMed

Andreev, Victor P; Head, Trajen; Johnson, Neil; Deo, Sapna K; Daunert, Sylvia; Goldschmidt-Clermont, Pascal J

2013-01-01

Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD) is responsible for at least 180,000 deaths a year and incurs an average cost of $286 billion annually in the United States alone. Herein, we present a novel discrete event simulation model of SCD, which quantifies the chains of events associated with the formation, growth, and rupture of atheroma plaques, and the subsequent formation of clots, thrombosis and on-set of arrhythmias within a population. The predictions generated by the model are in good agreement both with results obtained from pathological examinations on the frequencies of three major types of atheroma, and with epidemiological data on the prevalence and risk of SCD. These model predictions allow for identification of interventions and importantly for the optimal time of intervention leading to high potential impact on SCD risk reduction (up to 8-fold reduction in the number of SCDs in the population) as well as the increase in life expectancy.

Application and Evaluation of a Snowmelt Runoff Model in the Tamor River Basin, Eastern Himalaya Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Data Assimilation Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Panday, Prajjwal K.; Williams, Christopher A.; Frey, Karen E.; Brown, Molly E.

2013-01-01

Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree-day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash-Sutcliffe metric approx. 0.84, annual volume bias <3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002-2006 period is estimated to be 29.7+/-2.9% (which includes 4.2+/-0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3+/-2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000-5500m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9+/-3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9+/-1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree-day melting model. Lastly, we demonstrate that the data assimilation approach is useful for quantifying and reducing uncertainty related to model parameters and thus provides uncertainty bounds on snowmelt and rainfall contributions in such mountainous watersheds.

Cloud radiative effects and changes simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Sun-Hee; Kim, Ok-Yeon; Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In

2017-07-01

Using 32 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, this study examines the veracity in the simulation of cloud amount and their radiative effects (CREs) in the historical run driven by observed external radiative forcing for 1850-2005, and their future changes in the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario runs for 2006-2100. Validation metrics for the historical run are designed to examine the accuracy in the representation of spatial patterns for climatological mean, and annual and interannual variations of clouds and CREs. The models show large spread in the simulation of cloud amounts, specifically in the low cloud amount. The observed relationship between cloud amount and the controlling large-scale environment are also reproduced diversely by various models. Based on the validation metrics, four models—ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, HadGEM2-CC, and HadGEM2-ES—are selected as best models, and the average of the four models performs more skillfully than the multimodel ensemble average. All models project global-mean SST warming at the increase of the greenhouse gases, but the magnitude varies across the simulations between 1 and 2 K, which is largely attributable to the difference in the change of cloud amount and distribution. The models that simulate more SST warming show a greater increase in the net CRE due to reduced low cloud and increased incoming shortwave radiation, particularly over the regions of marine boundary layer in the subtropics. Selected best-performing models project a significant reduction in global-mean cloud amount of about -0.99% K-1 and net radiative warming of 0.46 W m-2 K-1, suggesting a role of positive feedback to global warming.

Characterization of Xe-133 global atmospheric background: Implications for the International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achim, Pascal; Generoso, Sylvia; Morin, Mireille; Gross, Philippe; Le Petit, Gilbert; Moulin, Christophe

2016-05-01

Monitoring atmospheric concentrations of radioxenons is relevant to provide evidence of atmospheric or underground nuclear weapon tests. However, when the design of the International Monitoring Network (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) was set up, the impact of industrial releases was not perceived. It is now well known that industrial radioxenon signature can interfere with that of nuclear tests. Therefore, there is a crucial need to characterize atmospheric distributions of radioxenons from industrial sources—the so-called atmospheric background—in the frame of the CTBT. Two years of Xe-133 atmospheric background have been simulated using 2013 and 2014 meteorological data together with the most comprehensive emission inventory of radiopharmaceutical facilities and nuclear power plants to date. Annual average simulated activity concentrations vary from 0.01 mBq/m3 up to above 5 mBq/m3 nearby major sources. Average measured and simulated concentrations agree on most of the IMS stations, which indicates that the main sources during the time frame are properly captured. Xe-133 atmospheric background simulated at IMS stations turn out to be a complex combination of sources. Stations most impacted are in Europe and North America and can potentially detect Xe-133 every day. Predicted occurrences of detections of atmospheric Xe-133 show seasonal variations, more accentuated in the Northern Hemisphere, where the maximum occurs in winter. To our knowledge, this study presents the first global maps of Xe-133 atmospheric background from industrial sources based on two years of simulation and is a first attempt to analyze its composition in terms of origin at IMS stations.

Evaluations of tropospheric aerosol properties simulated by the community earth system model with a sectional aerosol microphysics scheme

PubMed Central

Toon, Owen B.; Bardeen, Charles G.; Mills, Michael J.; Fan, Tianyi; English, Jason M.; Neely, Ryan R.

2015-01-01

Abstract A sectional aerosol model (CARMA) has been developed and coupled with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Aerosol microphysics, radiative properties, and interactions with clouds are simulated in the size‐resolving model. The model described here uses 20 particle size bins for each aerosol component including freshly nucleated sulfate particles, as well as mixed particles containing sulfate, primary organics, black carbon, dust, and sea salt. The model also includes five types of bulk secondary organic aerosols with four volatility bins. The overall cost of CESM1‐CARMA is approximately ∼2.6 times as much computer time as the standard three‐mode aerosol model in CESM1 (CESM1‐MAM3) and twice as much computer time as the seven‐mode aerosol model in CESM1 (CESM1‐MAM7) using similar gas phase chemistry codes. Aerosol spatial‐temporal distributions are simulated and compared with a large set of observations from satellites, ground‐based measurements, and airborne field campaigns. Simulated annual average aerosol optical depths are lower than MODIS/MISR satellite observations and AERONET observations by ∼32%. This difference is within the uncertainty of the satellite observations. CESM1/CARMA reproduces sulfate aerosol mass within 8%, organic aerosol mass within 20%, and black carbon aerosol mass within 50% compared with a multiyear average of the IMPROVE/EPA data over United States, but differences vary considerably at individual locations. Other data sets show similar levels of comparison with model simulations. The model suggests that in addition to sulfate, organic aerosols also significantly contribute to aerosol mass in the tropical UTLS, which is consistent with limited data. PMID:27668039

Systematic influences of gamma-ray spectrometry data near the decision threshold for radioactivity measurements in the environment.

PubMed

Zorko, Benjamin; Korun, Matjaž; Mora Canadas, Juan Carlos; Nicoulaud-Gouin, Valerie; Chyly, Pavol; Blixt Buhr, Anna Maria; Lager, Charlotte; Aquilonius, Karin; Krajewski, Pawel

2016-07-01

Several methods for reporting outcomes of gamma-ray spectrometric measurements of environmental samples for dose calculations are presented and discussed. The measurement outcomes can be reported as primary measurement results, primary measurement results modified according to the quantification limit, best estimates obtained by the Bayesian posterior (ISO 11929), best estimates obtained by the probability density distribution resembling shifting, and the procedure recommended by the European Commission (EC). The annual dose is calculated from the arithmetic average using any of these five procedures. It was shown that the primary measurement results modified according to the quantification limit could lead to an underestimation of the annual dose. On the other hand the best estimates lead to an overestimation of the annual dose. The annual doses calculated from the measurement outcomes obtained according to the EC's recommended procedure, which does not cope with the uncertainties, fluctuate between an under- and overestimation, depending on the frequency of the measurement results that are larger than the limit of detection. In the extreme case, when no measurement results above the detection limit occur, the average over primary measurement results modified according to the quantification limit underestimates the average over primary measurement results for about 80%. The average over best estimates calculated according the procedure resembling shifting overestimates the average over primary measurement results for 35%, the average obtained by the Bayesian posterior for 85% and the treatment according to the EC recommendation for 89%. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality among Seed Trees in Longleaf Pine Shelterwood Stands

Treesearch

William D. Boyer

1970-01-01

Mortality of longieaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) seed trees was recorded in 27 regeneration areas ranging from North Carolina to Louisiana. Annual mortality averaged 0.7 percent before, and 1.9 percent after a seed cut reduced stand density to about 30 square feet of basal area per acre. On a per-acre basis, however, annual losses averaged 0....

Trends in Harvest Cost in New Hampshire: 1964 to 1983

Treesearch

Donald F. Dennis; Susan B. Remington; Susan B. Remington

1987-01-01

Timber harvesting costs for New Hampshire from 1964 to 1983 were examined. During this period, real harvesting costs for sawtimber decreased at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent, while stumpage prices increased. Real harvesting costs for pulpwood declined at a 0.8 percent average annual rate. Harvest cost data for fuelwood were available only for 1973 to 1983....

Retrospective analysis of trends and production factors associated with sow mortality on swine-breeding farms in USA.

PubMed

Koketsu, Y

2000-09-01

Of the 825 pig farms in USA that mailed in their electronic file containing production records, 604 farms were used to observe breeding-female mortality risk and related factors (herd size, lactation length, parity and season). Multiple regression was used to determine factors associated with annual mortality risk. Analyses of variance were used for comparisons of mortality risks among parity and season groups. Average annual mortality risks during the 1997 period was 5.68%. Average breeding-female inventories and average lactation length on USA farms were 733 and 18.3 days, respectively. Higher annual breeding-female mortality risk was associated with larger herd size, greater parity at farrowing and shorter lactation length (P<0.02). For example, as herd size increases by 500 females, mortality risk increases by 0.44%. Older parity was associated with higher mortality risks. Summer season was also associated with higher mortality risk. Using five-years' records on 270 farms, annual mortality risk in 1997 was higher than those of 1993 and 1994, while average breeding-female inventory increased and lactation length decreased. It is recommended that producers, especially in large herds, pay more attention to breeding females.

Evapotranspiration and water yield over China's landmass from 2000 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhou, Y.; Ju, W.; Chen, J.; Wang, S.; He, H.; Wang, H.; Guan, D.; Zhao, F.; Li, Y.; Hao, Y.

2013-12-01

Terrestrial carbon and water cycles are interactively linked at various spatial and temporal scales. Evapotranspiration (ET) plays a key role in the terrestrial water cycle, altering carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems. The study of ET and its response to climate and vegetation changes is critical in China because water availability is a limiting factor for the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems in vast arid and semiarid regions. To constrain uncertainties in ET estimation, the process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model was employed in conjunction with a newly developed leaf area index (LAI) data set, MODIS land cover, meteorological, and soil data to simulate daily ET and water yield at a spatial resolution of 500 m over China for the period from 2000 to 2010. The spatial and temporal variations of ET and water yield were analyzed. The influences of climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) and vegetation (land cover types and LAI) on these variations were assessed. Validations against ET measured at five ChinaFLUX sites showed that the BEPS model was able to simulate daily and annual ET well at site scales. Simulated annual ET exhibited a distinguishable southeast to northwest decreasing gradient, corresponding to climate conditions and vegetation types. It increased with the increase of LAI in 74% of China's landmass and was positively correlated with temperature in most areas of southwest, south, east, and central China. The correlation between annual ET and precipitation was positive in the arid and semiarid areas of northwest and north China, but negative in the Tibetan Plateau and humid southeast China. The national annual ET varied from 345.5 mm in 2001 to 387.8 mm in 2005, with an average of 369.8 mm during the study period. The overall rate of increase, 1.7 mm yr-1 (R2 = 0.18, p = 0.19), was mainly driven by the increase of total ET in forests. During 2006-2009, precipitation and LAI decreased widely and consequently caused a detectable decrease in national total ET. Annual ET increased over 62.2% of China's landmass, especially in the cropland areas of the southern Haihe River basin, most of the Huaihe River basin, and the southeastern Yangtze River basin. It decreased in parts of northeast, north, northwest, south China, especially in eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the south of Yunnan Province, and Hainan Province. Reduction in precipitation and increase in ET caused vast regions in China, especially the regions south of Yangtze River, to experience significant decreases in water yield, while some sporadically distributed areas experienced increases in water yield. This study shows that the terrestrial water cycles in China's terrestrial ecosystems appear to have been intensified by recent climatic variability and human induced vegetation changes.

Reducing EnergyPlus Run Time For Code Compliance Tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Athalye, Rahul A.; Gowri, Krishnan; Schultz, Robert W.

2014-09-12

Integration of the EnergyPlus ™ simulation engine into performance-based code compliance software raises a concern about simulation run time, which impacts timely feedback of compliance results to the user. EnergyPlus annual simulations for proposed and code baseline building models, and mechanical equipment sizing result in simulation run times beyond acceptable limits. This paper presents a study that compares the results of a shortened simulation time period using 4 weeks of hourly weather data (one per quarter), to an annual simulation using full 52 weeks of hourly weather data. Three representative building types based on DOE Prototype Building Models and threemore » climate zones were used for determining the validity of using a shortened simulation run period. Further sensitivity analysis and run time comparisons were made to evaluate the robustness and run time savings of using this approach. The results of this analysis show that the shortened simulation run period provides compliance index calculations within 1% of those predicted using annual simulation results, and typically saves about 75% of simulation run time.« less

Responses of stream nitrate and dissolved organic carbon loadings to hydrological forcing and climate change in an upland forest of the northeast USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Shanley, James B.

2009-01-01

[1] In coming decades, higher annual temperatures, increased growing season length, and increased dormant season precipitation are expected across the northeastern United States in response to anthropogenic forcing of global climate. We synthesized long-term stream hydrochemical data from the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Vermont, United States, to explore the relationship of catchment wetness to stream nitrate and DOC loadings. We modeled changes in growing season length and precipitation patterns to simulate future climate scenarios and to assess how stream nutrient loadings respond to climate change. Model results for the 2070–2099 time period suggest that stream nutrient loadings during both the dormant and growing seasons will respond to climate change. During a warmer climate, growing season stream fluxes (runoff +20%, nitrate +57%, and DOC +58%) increase as more precipitation (+28%) and quick flow (+39%) occur during a longer growing season (+43 days). During the dormant season, stream water and nutrient loadings decrease. Net annual stream runoff (+8%) and DOC loading (+9%) increases are commensurate with the magnitude of the average increase of net annual precipitation (+7%). Net annual stream water and DOC loadings are primarily affected by increased dormant season precipitation. In contrast, decreased annual loading of stream nitrate (−2%) reflects a larger effect of growing season controls on stream nitrate and the effects of lengthened growing seasons in a warmer climate. Our findings suggest that leaching of nitrate and DOC from catchment soils will be affected by anthropogenic climate forcing, thereby affecting the timing and magnitude of annual stream loadings in the northeastern United States.

Responses of stream nitrate and DOC loadings to hydrological forcing and climate change in an upland forest of the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sebestyen, S.D.; Boyer, E.W.; Shanley, J.B.

2009-01-01

In coming decades, higher annual temperatures, increased growing season length, and increased dormant season precipitation are expected across the northeastern United States in response to anthropogenic forcing of global climate. We synthesized long-term stream hydrochemical data from the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Vermont, United States, to explore the relationship of catchment wetness to stream nitrate and DOC loadings. We modeled changes in growing season length and precipitation patterns to simulate future climate scenarios and to assess how stream nutrient loadings respond to climate change. Model results for the 2070-2099 time period suggest that stream nutrient loadings during both the dormant and growing seasons will respond to climate change. During a warmer climate, growing season stream fluxes (runoff+20%, nitrate +57%, and DOC +58%) increase as more precipitation (+28%) and quick flow (+39%) occur during a longer growing season (+43 days). During the dormant season, stream water and nutrient loadings decrease. Net annual stream runoff (+8%) and DOC loading (+9%) increases are commensurate with the magnitude of the average increase of net annual precipitation (+7%). Net annual stream water and DOC loadings are primarily affected by increased dormant season precipitation. In contrast, decreased annual loading of stream nitrate (-2%) reflects a larger effect of growing season controls on stream nitrate and the effects of lengthened growing seasons in a warmer climate. Our findings suggest that leaching of nitrate and DOC from catchment soils will be affected by anthropogenic climate forcing, thereby affecting the timing and magnitude of annual stream loadings in the northeastern United States. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Gamification in thoracic surgical education: Using competition to fuel performance.

PubMed

Mokadam, Nahush A; Lee, Richard; Vaporciyan, Ara A; Walker, Jennifer D; Cerfolio, Robert J; Hermsen, Joshua L; Baker, Craig J; Mark, Rebecca; Aloia, Lauren; Enter, Dan H; Carpenter, Andrea J; Moon, Marc R; Verrier, Edward D; Fann, James I

2015-11-01

In an effort to stimulate residents and trainers to increase their use of simulation training and the Thoracic Surgery Curriculum, a gamification strategy was developed in a friendly but competitive environment. "Top Gun." Low-fidelity simulators distributed annually were used for the technical competition. Baseline and final video assessments were performed, and 5 finalists were invited to compete in a live setting from 2013 to 2015. "Jeopardy." A screening examination was devised to test knowledge contained in the Thoracic Surgery Curriculum. The top 6 2-member teams were invited to compete in a live setting structured around the popular game show Jeopardy. "Top Gun." Over 3 years, there were 43 baseline and 34 final submissions. In all areas of assessment, there was demonstrable improvement. There was increasing evidence of simulation as seen by practice and ritualistic behavior. "Jeopardy." Sixty-eight individuals completed the screening examination, and 30 teams were formed. The largest representation came from the second-year residents in traditional programs. Contestants reported an average in-training examination percentile of 72.9. Finalists reported increased use of the Thoracic Surgery Curriculum by an average of 10 hours per week in preparation. The live competition was friendly, engaging, and spirited. This gamification approach focused on technical and cognitive skills, has been successfully implemented, and has encouraged the use of simulators and the Thoracic Surgery Curriculum. This framework may capitalize on the competitive nature of our trainees and can provide recognition of their achievements. Copyright © 2015 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Origins of the Thermosphere-Ionosphere Semiannual Oscillation: Reformulating the "Thermospheric Spoon" Mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, M.; Emmert, J. T.; Drob, D. P.; Picone, J. M.; Meier, R. R.

2018-01-01

We demonstrate how Earth's obliquity generates the global thermosphere-ionosphere (T-I) semiannual oscillation (SAO) in mass density and electron density primarily through seasonally varying large-scale advection of neutral thermospheric constituents, sometimes referred to as the "thermospheric spoon" mechanism (TSM). The National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) is used to isolate the TSM forcing of this prominent intraannual variation (IAV) and to elucidate the contributions of other processes to the T-I SAO. An ˜30% SAO in globally averaged mass density (relative to its global annual average) at 400 km is reproduced in the TIME-GCM in the absence of seasonally varying eddy diffusion, tropospheric tidal forcing, and gravity wave breaking. Artificially, decreasing the tilt of Earth's rotation axis with respect to the ecliptic plane to 11.75° reduces seasonal variations in insolation and weakens interhemispheric pressure differences at the solstices, thereby damping the global-scale, interhemispheric transport of atomic oxygen (O) and molecular nitrogen in the thermosphere and reducing the simulated global mass density SAO amplitude to ˜10%. Simulated T-I IAVs in mass density and electron density have equinoctial maxima at all latitudes near the F2 region peak; this phasing and its latitude dependence agree well with empirically inferred climatologies. When tropospheric tides and gravity waves are included, simulated IAV amplitudes and their latitudinal dependence also agree well with empirically inferred climatologies. Simulated meridional and vertical transport of O due to the TSM couples to the upper mesospheric circulation, which also contributes to the T-I SAO through O chemistry.

Study of Patients' Willingness to Pay for a Cure of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chen, Yi-Ting; Ying, Yung-Hsiang; Chang, Koyin; Hsieh, Ya-Hui

2016-03-01

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is one of the fastest growing causes of death worldwide. However, few studies, if any, have been conducted that have investigated patient profiles in Asia. This paper analyzes patient willingness to pay (WTP) as a function of patient disease severity, health-related quality of life (HRQL), and smoking behavior in Taiwan. A cross-sectional survey was conducted using in-person interviews with COPD patients. A hypothetical scenario was designed and presented to ascertain each subject's willingness to pay (WTP) for a cure for COPD. A survey of subjects with COPD was performed in Taiwan. The contingent valuation method (CVM) was employed to measure patient financial burden, which was analyzed along with covariates that included various types of health-related quality of life (HRQL), severity level, and demographic background. Multivariate regression and simulation methods were employed for analysis. A total of 142 subjects were interviewed, with an average annual WTP of approximately $1422 USD (or 42,662.37 NTD, New Taiwan Dollars). The annual WTP for patients 55 years of age or younger, $5709.06, was the highest and equivalent to approximately one-third of Taiwan average annual personal income or quadruple the spending amount of the Taiwan National Bureau of Health Insurance (NBHI) for each COPD patient. Current cigarette smokers were willing to pay a substantially higher amount than former smokers and nonsmokers, which reflects a psychological desire for redemption in COPD patients. The results of this study provide directions for the relevant authorities regarding the alleviation of suffering as a result of COPD. Appropriate health promotion measures, such as measures to reduce tobacco usage, early diagnosis, and active treatment, may be necessary to contain the escalating costs related to COPD and to prevent this epidemic from worsening.

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition to China: a model analysis on nitrogen budget and critical load exceedance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.; Zhang, L.; Chen, Y.; Liu, X.; Xu, W.; Pan, Y.; Duan, L.

2016-12-01

We present a national-scale model analysis of the sources and processes of inorganic nitrogen deposition over China using the GEOS-Chem model at 1/2°×1/3° horizontal resolution. Averaged model results for 2008-2012 are evaluated with an ensemble of surface measurements of nitrogen wet deposition flux and concentration, and satellite measurements of tropospheric NO2 columns. Annual inorganic nitrogen deposition fluxes are shown to be generally less than 10 kg N ha-1 a-1 in the western China, 15-50 kg N ha-1 a-1 in the eastern China, and 15.6 kg N ha-1 a-1 averaged over China. The model simulates an annual total deposition flux of 16.4 Tg N to China, with 10.3 Tg N (63%) from reduced nitrogen (NHx) and 6.2 Tg N from oxidized nitrogen (NOy). Domestic anthropogenic sources contribute 86% of the total deposition; foreign anthropogenic sources 7% and natural sources 7%. Annually 23% of domestically emitted NH3 and 36% for NOx are exported out of China. We also find while nitrogen deposition to China is comparable to the nitrogen input from fertilizer application (16.5 Tg N a-1) on the national scale, it is much more widely distributed spatially. The deposition flux is also much higher than natural biological fixation (7.3 Tg N a-1). A comparison with estimates of nitrogen critical load for eutrophication indicates that about 40% of the land over China faces nitrogen critical load exceedances. However, 45% of the exceeding areas, mainly in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Central China, East China, and South China, will not occur in the absence of nitrogen deposition, demonstrating the necessity of nitrogen emission controls to avoid potential negative ecological effects over these areas.

Global evaluation of biofuel potential from microalgae

PubMed Central

Moody, Jeffrey W.; McGinty, Christopher M.; Quinn, Jason C.

2014-01-01

In the current literature, the life cycle, technoeconomic, and resource assessments of microalgae-based biofuel production systems have relied on growth models extrapolated from laboratory-scale data, leading to a large uncertainty in results. This type of simplistic growth modeling overestimates productivity potential and fails to incorporate biological effects, geographical location, or cultivation architecture. This study uses a large-scale, validated, outdoor photobioreactor microalgae growth model based on 21 reactor- and species-specific inputs to model the growth of Nannochloropsis. This model accurately accounts for biological effects such as nutrient uptake, respiration, and temperature and uses hourly historical meteorological data to determine the current global productivity potential. Global maps of the current near-term microalgae lipid and biomass productivity were generated based on the results of annual simulations at 4,388 global locations. Maximum annual average lipid yields between 24 and 27 m3·ha−1·y−1, corresponding to biomass yields of 13 to 15 g·m−2·d−1, are possible in Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Kenya, and Saudi Arabia. The microalgae lipid productivity results of this study were integrated with geography-specific fuel consumption and land availability data to perform a scalability assessment. Results highlight the promising potential of microalgae-based biofuels compared with traditional terrestrial feedstocks. When water, nutrients, and CO2 are not limiting, many regions can potentially meet significant fractions of their transportation fuel requirements through microalgae production, without land resource restriction. Discussion focuses on sensitivity of monthly variability in lipid production compared with annual average yields, effects of temperature on productivity, and a comparison of results with previous published modeling assumptions. PMID:24912176

Investigation and analysis of medical waste generation in Enshi area of Hubei Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengchao, Jin; Hongjun, Teng; Zhenbo, Bao; Yang, Li

2017-03-01

Based on medical waste collecting data of Enshi medical waste disposal center. The generation of medical waste and its change trend in Enshi area were both studied. The influencing factors and changing rules of medical waste generation were also analyzed. It can be found that the amount of medical waste in Enshi area is increasing year by year, the average annual growth rate of about 6.14% between 2011-2014. It was also found that the output of medical wastes varied regularity by seasons. February was the lowest month for medical waste, March and July were the peak months. By statistical analysis, average annual medical waste production per 10000 people was 4.5 ton and per bed average annual production was 133.58 kg.

Potentiometric surfaces of the upper glacial and Magothy aquifers and selected streamflow statistics, 1943-72, on Long Island, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaupel, Donald E.; Prince, K.R.; Koehler, A.J.; Runco, Mario

1977-01-01

A brief text describes the two major aquifers and the discharge pattern of major streams on Long Island. Four water-table maps for the years 1943, 1959, 1966, and 1972, an average water-table map for the period 1943-72 supplemented by five well hydrographs representing Kings, Queens, western Nassau, eastern Nassau, and Suffolk Counties, and three potentiometric- surface maps of the Magothy aquifer for the years 1959, 1966, and 1972 are included. A statistical summary of stream discharge presents average annual discharges, annual average discharges, and average 7-day, 10-year low-flow discharges for major streams.

Urbanization Effects on Fog in China: Field Research and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zi-hua; Yang, Jun; Shi, Chun-e.; Pu, Mei-juan

2012-05-01

Since the policy of "Reform and Open to the Outside World" was implemented from 1978, urbanization has been rapid in China, leading to the expansion of urban areas and population synchronous with swift advances in economy. With urban development underway, the urban heat island (UHI) and air pollution are being enhanced, together with vegetation coverage and relative humidity on the decrease. These changes lead to: (1) decline of annual fog days in cities (e.g. In Chongqing, so-called city of fog in China, the annual fog days have reduced from 100-145 in the 1950s to about 20-30 in the 2000s); (2) decrease in fog water content (FWC) and fog droplet size, but increase in fog droplets number concentration [e.g. Jinghong, a city in Yunnan province, the average FWC (the droplet diameter) during an extremely dense fog episode with drizzle was 0.74 g/m3 (28.6 μm) during the 1968/69 winter and 0.08 g/m3 (6.8 μm) in another extremely dense fog episode during the 1986/87 winter, correspondingly, the fog droplets number density had increased from 34.9 to 153 cm-3]; (3) decrease in fog water deposition (FWD) (e.g. the annual mean FWD measured in Jinghong had dropped from 17.3 mm in the 1950s to 4.4 mm in the 1970s and less than 1 mm in the 1980s, and no measurable FWD now.); (4) decrease in visibility in large cities (e.g. in Chongqing, the annual average visibility had decreased from 8.2-11.8 km in the 1960s to 4.9-6.5 km in the 1980s, and around 5 km in recent years); and (5) increase in the ion concentrations and acidity in fog water in urban areas [e.g. the average total ion concentration (TIC) in the center of Chongqing was 5.5 × 104 μmol/L, with mean pH value of 4.0, while the corresponding values are 9.7 × 103 μmol/L and over 5.5 in its rural area]. These changes endanger all kinds of transportation and human health. This paper summarized the authors' related studies, including observations and numerical simulations to confirm the above conclusions.

78 FR 56995 - Proposed Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-16

...: Businesses. Respondent Universe: 763 railroads. Frequency of Submission: On occasion. Reporting Burden Total annual Average time per Total annual CFR Section Respondent universe responses response burden hours 225... Universe: 763 railroads. Frequency of Submission: On occasion; annually. Reporting Burden Respondent Total...

Estimation of peak-discharge frequency of urban streams in Jefferson County, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Gary R.; Ruhl, Kevin J.; Moore, Brian L.; Rose, Martin F.

1997-01-01

An investigation of flood-hydrograph characteristics for streams in urban Jefferson County, Kentucky, was made to obtain hydrologic information needed for waterresources management. Equations for estimating peak-discharge frequencies for ungaged streams in the county were developed by combining (1) long-term annual peakdischarge data and rainfall-runoff data collected from 1991 to 1995 in 13 urban basins and (2) long-term annual peak-discharge data in four rural basins located in hydrologically similar areas of neighboring counties. The basins ranged in size from 1.36 to 64.0 square miles. The U.S. Geological Survey Rainfall- Runoff Model (RRM) was calibrated for each of the urban basins. The calibrated models were used with long-term, historical rainfall and pan-evaporation data to simulate 79 years of annual peak-discharge data. Peak-discharge frequencies were estimated by fitting the logarithms of the annual peak discharges to a Pearson-Type III frequency distribution. The simulated peak-discharge frequencies were adjusted for improved reliability by application of bias-correction factors derived from peakdischarge frequencies based on local, observed annual peak discharges. The three-parameter and the preferred seven-parameter nationwide urban-peak-discharge regression equations previously developed by USGS investigators provided biased (high) estimates for the urban basins studied. Generalized-least-square regression procedures were used to relate peakdischarge frequency to selected basin characteristics. Regression equations were developed to estimate peak-discharge frequency by adjusting peak-dischargefrequency estimates made by use of the threeparameter nationwide urban regression equations. The regression equations are presented in equivalent forms as functions of contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, and basin development factor, which is an index for measuring the efficiency of the basin drainage system. Estimates of peak discharges for streams in the county can be made for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals by use of the regression equations. The average standard errors of prediction of the regression equations ranges from ? 34 to ? 45 percent. The regression equations are applicable to ungaged streams in the county having a specific range of basin characteristics.

5 CFR 870.204 - Annual rates of pay.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... who works at different pay rates is the weighted average of the rates at which the employee is paid... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Annual rates of pay. 870.204 Section 870... rates of pay. (a) (1) An insured employee's annual pay is his/her annual rate of basic pay as fixed by...

Trends in Personal Belief Exemption Rates Among Alternative Private Schools: Waldorf, Montessori, and Holistic Kindergartens in California, 2000–2014

PubMed Central

Bednarczyk, Robert A.; Richards, Jennifer L.; Allen, Kristen E.; Warraich, Gohar J.; Omer, Saad B.

2017-01-01

Objectives. To evaluate trends in rates of personal belief exemptions (PBEs) to immunization requirements for private kindergartens in California that practice alternative educational methods. Methods. We used California Department of Public Health data on kindergarten PBE rates from 2000 to 2014 to compare annual average increases in PBE rates between schools. Results. Alternative schools had an average PBE rate of 8.7%, compared with 2.1% among public schools. Waldorf schools had the highest average PBE rate of 45.1%, which was 19 times higher than in public schools (incidence rate ratio = 19.1; 95% confidence interval = 16.4, 22.2). Montessori and holistic schools had the highest average annual increases in PBE rates, slightly higher than Waldorf schools (Montessori: 8.8%; holistic: 7.1%; Waldorf: 3.6%). Conclusions. Waldorf schools had exceptionally high average PBE rates, and Montessori and holistic schools had higher annual increases in PBE rates. Children in these schools may be at higher risk for spreading vaccine-preventable diseases if trends are not reversed. PMID:27854520

Trends in Personal Belief Exemption Rates Among Alternative Private Schools: Waldorf, Montessori, and Holistic Kindergartens in California, 2000-2014.

PubMed

Brennan, Julia M; Bednarczyk, Robert A; Richards, Jennifer L; Allen, Kristen E; Warraich, Gohar J; Omer, Saad B

2017-01-01

To evaluate trends in rates of personal belief exemptions (PBEs) to immunization requirements for private kindergartens in California that practice alternative educational methods. We used California Department of Public Health data on kindergarten PBE rates from 2000 to 2014 to compare annual average increases in PBE rates between schools. Alternative schools had an average PBE rate of 8.7%, compared with 2.1% among public schools. Waldorf schools had the highest average PBE rate of 45.1%, which was 19 times higher than in public schools (incidence rate ratio = 19.1; 95% confidence interval = 16.4, 22.2). Montessori and holistic schools had the highest average annual increases in PBE rates, slightly higher than Waldorf schools (Montessori: 8.8%; holistic: 7.1%; Waldorf: 3.6%). Waldorf schools had exceptionally high average PBE rates, and Montessori and holistic schools had higher annual increases in PBE rates. Children in these schools may be at higher risk for spreading vaccine-preventable diseases if trends are not reversed.

Average Annual Rainfall Over the Globe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agrawal, D. C.

2013-12-01

The atmospheric recycling of water is a very important phenomenon on the globe because it not only refreshes the water but it also redistributes it over land and oceans/rivers/lakes throughout the globe. This is made possible by the solar energy intercepted by the Earth. The half of the globe facing the Sun, on the average, intercepts 1.74×1017 J of solar radiation per second and it is divided over various channels as given in Table 1. It keeps our planet warm and maintains its average temperature2 of 288 K with the help of the atmosphere in such a way that life can survive. It also recycles the water in the oceans/rivers/ lakes by initial evaporation and subsequent precipitation; the average annual rainfall over the globe is around one meter. According to M. King Hubbert the amount of solar power going into the evaporation and precipitation channel is 4.0×1016 W. Students can verify the value of average annual rainfall over the globe by utilizing this part of solar energy. This activity is described in the next section.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larsen, Peter H.; LaCommare, Kristina H.; Eto, Joseph H.

Here, this study examines the relationship between annual changes in electricity reliability reported by a large cross-section of U.S. electricity distribution utilities over a period of 13 years and a broad set of potential explanatory variables, including weather and utility characteristics. We find statistically significant correlations between the average number of power interruptions experienced annually and above average wind speeds, precipitation, lightning strikes, and a measure of population density: customers per line mile. We also find significant relationships between the average number of minutes of power interruptions experienced and above average wind speeds, precipitation, cooling degree-days, and one strategy usedmore » to mitigate the impacts of severe weather: the amount of underground transmission and distribution line miles. Perhaps most importantly, we find a significant time trend of increasing annual average number of minutes of power interruptions over time—especially when interruptions associated with extreme weather are included. Lastly, the research method described in this analysis can provide a basis for future efforts to project long-term trends in reliability and the associated benefits of strategies to improve grid resiliency to severe weather—both in the U.S. and abroad.« less

Water and tritium movement through the unsaturated zone at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site near Sheffield, Illinois, 1981-85

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, Patrick C.; Healy, Richard W.

1993-01-01

The movement of water and tritium through the unsaturated zone was studied at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site near Sheffield, Bureau County, Illinois, from 1981 to 1985. Water and tritium movement occurred in an annual, seasonally timed cycle; recharge to the saturated zone generally occurred in the spring and early summer. Mean annual precipitation (1982-85) was 871 mm (millimeters); mean annual recharge to the disposal trenches (July 1982 through June 1984) was estimated to be 107 mm. Average annual tritium flux below the study trenches was estimated to be 3.4 mCi/yr (millicuries per year). Site geology, climate, and waste-disposal practices influenced the spatial and temporal variability of water and tritium movement. Of the components of the water budget, evapotranspiration contributed most to the temporal variability of water and tritium movement. Disposal trenches are constructed in complexly layered glacial and postglacial deposits that average 17 m (meters) in thickness and overlie a thick sequence of Pennsylvanian shale. The horizontal saturated hydraulic conductivity of the clayey-silt to sand-sized glacial and postglacial deposits ranges from 4.8x10 -1 to 3.4x10 4 mm/d (millimeters per day). A 120-m-long horizontal tunnel provided access for hydrologic measurements and collection of sediment and water samples from the unsaturated and saturated geologic deposits below four disposal trenches. Trench-cover and subtrench deposits were monitored with soil-moisture tensiometers, vacuum and gravity lysimeters, piezometers, and a nuclear soil-moisture gage. A cross-sectional, numerical ground-water-flow model was used to simulate water movement in the variably saturated geologic deposits in the tunnel area. Concurrent studies at the site provided water-budget data for estimating recharge to the disposal trenches. Vertical water movement directly above the trenches was impeded by a zone of compaction within the clayey-silt trench covers. Water entered the trenches primarily at the trench edges where the compacted zone was absent and the cover was relatively thin. Collapse holes in the trench covers that resulted from inadequate compaction of wastes within the trenches provided additional preferential pathways for surface-water drainage into the trenches; drainage into one collapse hole during a rainstorm was estimated to be 1,700 L (liters). Till deposits near trench bases induced lateral water and tritium movement. Limited temporal variation in water movement and small flow gradients (relative to the till deposits) were detected in the unsaturated subtrench sand deposit; maximum gradients during the spring recharge period averaged 1.62 mm/mm (millimeter per millimeter). Time-of-travel of water moving from the trench covers to below the trenches was estimated to be as rapid as 41 days (assuming individual water molecules move this distance in one recharge cycle). Tritium concentrations in water from the unsaturated zone ranged from 200 (background) to 10,000,000 pCi/L (picocuries per liter). Tritium concentrations generally were higher below trench bases (averaging 91,000 pCi/L) than below intertrench sediments (averaging 3,300 pCi/L), and in the subtrench Toulon Member of the Glasford Formation (sand) (averaging 110,000 pCi/L) than in the Hulick Till Member of the Glasford Formation (clayey silt) (averaging 59,000 pCi/L). Average subtrench tritium concentration increased from 28,000 to 100,000 pCi/L during the study period. Within the trench covers, there was a strong seasonal trend in tritium concentrations; the highest concentrations occurred in late summer when soil-moisture contents were at a minimum. Subtrench tritium movement occurred in association with the annual cycle of water movement, as well as independently of the cycle, in apparent response to continuous water movement through the subtrench sand deposits and to the deterioration of trench-waste containers. The increase in concen

Water and tritium movement through the unsaturated zone at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site near Sheffield, Illinois, 1981-85

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, Patrick C.; Healy, R.W.

1991-01-01

The movement of water and tritium through the unsaturated zone was studied at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site near Sheffield, Bureau County, Illinois, from 1981 to 1985. Water and tritium movement occurred in an annual, seasonally timed cycle; recharge to the saturated zone generally occurred in the spring and early summer. Mean annual precipitation (1982-85) was 871 millimeters; mean annual recharge to the disposal trenches (July 1982 through June 1984) was estimated to be 107 millimeters. Average annual tritium flux below the study trenches was estimated to be 3.4 millicuries per year. Site geology, climate, and waste-disposal practices influenced the spatial and temporal variability of water and tritium movement. Of the components of the water budget, evapotranspiration contributed most to the temporal variability of water and tritium movement. Disposal trenches are constructed in complexly layered glacial and postglacial deposits that average 17 meters in thickness and overlie a thick sequence of Pennsylvanian shale. The horizontal saturated hydraulic conductivity of the clayey-silt to sand-sized glacial and postglacial deposits ranges from 4.8x10^-1 to 3.4x10^4 millimeters per day. A 120-meter-long horizontal tunnel provided access for hydrologic measurements and collection of sediment and water samples from the unsaturated and saturated geologic deposits below four disposal trenches. Trench-cover and subtrench deposits were monitored with soil-moisture tensiometers, vacuum and gravity lysimeters, piezometers, and a nuclear soil-moisture gage. A cross-sectional, numerical ground-water-flow model was used to simulate water movement in the variably saturated geologic deposits in the tunnel area. Concurrent studies at the site provided water-budget data for estimating recharge to the disposal trenches. Vertical water movement directly above the trenches was impeded by a zone of compaction within the clayey-silt trench covers. Water entered the trenches primarily at the trench edges where the compacted zone was absent and the cover was relatively thin. Collapse holes in the trench covers that resulted from inadequate compaction of wastes within the trenches provided additional preferential pathways for surface-water drainage into the trenches; drainage into one collapse hole during a rainstorm was estimated to be 1,700 liters. Till deposits near trench bases induced lateral water and tritium movement. Limited temporal variation in water movement and small flow gradients (relative to the till deposits) were detected in the unsaturated subtrench sand deposit; maximum gradients during the spring recharge period averaged 1.62 millimeters per millimeter. Time-of-travel of water moving from the trench covers to below the trenches was estimated to be as rapid as 41 days (assuming individual water molecules move this distance in one recharge cycle). Tritium concentrations in water from the unsaturated zone ranged from 200 (background) to 10,000,000 pCi/L (picocuries per liter). Tritium concentrations generally were higher below trench bases (averaging 91,000 pCi/L) than below intertrench sediments (averaging 3,300 pCi/L), and in the subtrench Toulon Member of the Glasford Formation (sand) (averaging 110,000 pCi/L) than in the Hulick Till Member of the Glasford Formation (clayey silt) (averaging 59,000 pCi/L). Average subtrench tritium concentration increased from 28,000 to 100,000 pCi/L during the study period. Within the trench covers, there was a strong seasonal trend in tritium concentrations; the highest concentrations occurred in late summer when soil-moisture contents were at a minimum. Subtrench tritium movement occurred in association with the annual cycle of water movement, as well as independently of the cycle, in apparent response to continuous water movement through the subtrench sand deposits and to the deterioration of trench-waste containers. The increase in concentrations of tritium with incre

Importance of the Annual Cycles of SST and Solar Irradiance for Circulation and Rainfall: A Climate Model Simulation Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Yogesh C.; Lau, William K. M.; Walker, G. K.; Mehta, V. M.

2001-01-01

Annual cycle of climate and precipitation is related to annual cycle of sunshine and sea-surface temperatures. Understanding its behavior is important for the welfare of humans worldwide. For example, failure of Asian monsoons can cause widespread famine and grave economic disaster in the subtropical regions. For centuries meteorologists have struggled to understand the importance of the summer sunshine and associated heating and the annual cycle of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) on rainfall in the subtropics. Because the solar income is pretty steady from year to year, while SSTs depict large interannual variability as consequence of the variability of ocean dynamics, the influence of SSTs on the monsoons are better understood through observational and modeling studies whereas the relationship of annual rainfall to sunshine remains elusive. However, using NASA's state of the art climate model(s) that can generate realistic climate in a computer simulation, one can answer such questions. We asked the question: if there was no annual cycle of the sunshine (and its associated land-heating) or the SST and its associated influence on global circulation, what will happen to the annual cycle of monsoon rains? By comparing the simulation of a 4-year integration of a baseline Control case with two parallel anomaly experiments: 1) with annual mean solar and 2) with annual mean sea-surface temperatures, we were able to draw the following conclusions: (1) Tropical convergence zone and rainfall which moves with the Sun into the northern and southern hemispheres, specifically over the Indian, African, South American and Australian regions, is strongly modulated by the annual cycles of SSTs as well as solar forcings. The influence of the annual cycle of solar heating over land, however, is much stronger than the corresponding SST influence for almost all regions, particularly the subtropics; (2) The seasonal circulation patterns over the vast land-masses of the Northern Hemisphere at mid and high latitudes also get strongly influenced by the annual cycles of solar heating. The SST influence is largely limited to the oceanic regions of these latitudes; (3) The annual mode of precipitation over Amazonia has an equatorial regime revealing a maxima in the month of March associated with SST, and another maxima in the month of January associated with the solar annual cycles, respectively. The baseline simulation, which has both annual cycles, depicts both annual modes and its rainfall is virtually equal to the sum of those two modes; (4) Rainfall over Sahelian-Africa is significantly reduced (increased) in simulations lacking (invoking) solar irradiation with (without) the annual cycle. In fact, the dominant influence of solar irradiation emerges in almost all monsoonal-land regions: India, Southeast Asia, as well as Australia. The only exception is the Continental United States, where solar annual cycle shows only a relatively minor influence on the annual mode of rainfall.

STUDY OF RADIATION EXPOSURE DUE TO RADON, THORON AND PROGENY IN THE INDOOR ENVIRONMENT OF YAMUNA AND TONS VALLEYS OF GARHWAL HIMALAYA.

PubMed

Prasad, Mukesh; Rawat, Mukesh; Dangwal, Anoop; Prasad, Ganesh; Mishra, Rosaline; Ramola, R C

2016-10-01

Long-term measurements of indoor radon, thoron and their progeny concentrations have been carried out in dwellings of Yamuna and Tons Valleys of Uttarkashi, Garhwal Himalaya to investigate the health risk associated with inhalation of radon, thoron and progeny. The experimentally determined values of radon, thoron and progeny concentrations were used to estimate the annual inhalation doses and annual effective doses. The annual inhalation dose has been found to vary from 0.8 to 3.9 mSv y -1 with an average of 1.8 mSv y -1 The annual effective dose from the exposure to radon and its progeny in the study area has been found to vary from 0.1 to 2.4 mSv with an average of 1.2±0.6 mSv. Similarly, the annual effective dose due to thoron and its progeny has been found to vary from 0.2 to 1.5 mSv with an average of 0.6±0.4. The measurement techniques and results obtained are discussed in detail. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Cost savings from reduced catheter-related bloodstream infection after simulation-based education for residents in a medical intensive care unit.

PubMed

Cohen, Elaine R; Feinglass, Joe; Barsuk, Jeffrey H; Barnard, Cynthia; O'Donnell, Anna; McGaghie, William C; Wayne, Diane B

2010-04-01

Interventions to reduce preventable complications such as catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSI) can also decrease hospital costs. However, little is known about the cost-effectiveness of simulation-based education. The aim of this study was to estimate hospital cost savings related to a reduction in CRBSI after simulation training for residents. This was an intervention evaluation study estimating cost savings related to a simulation-based intervention in central venous catheter (CVC) insertion in the Medical Intensive Care Unit (MICU) at an urban teaching hospital. After residents completed a simulation-based mastery learning program in CVC insertion, CRBSI rates declined sharply. Case-control and regression analysis methods were used to estimate savings by comparing CRBSI rates in the year before and after the intervention. Annual savings from reduced CRBSIs were compared with the annual cost of simulation training. Approximately 9.95 CRBSIs were prevented among MICU patients with CVCs in the year after the intervention. Incremental costs attributed to each CRBSI were approximately $82,000 in 2008 dollars and 14 additional hospital days (including 12 MICU days). The annual cost of the simulation-based education was approximately $112,000. Net annual savings were thus greater than $700,000, a 7 to 1 rate of return on the simulation training intervention. A simulation-based educational intervention in CVC insertion was highly cost-effective. These results suggest that investment in simulation training can produce significant medical care cost savings.

Comparison of regional air dispersion simulation and ambient air monitoring data for the soil fumigant 1,3-dichloropropene.

PubMed

van Wesenbeeck, I J; Cryer, S A; de Cirugeda Helle, O; Li, C; Driver, J H

2016-11-01

SOFEA v2.0 is an air dispersion modeling tool used to predict acute and chronic pesticide concentrations in air for large air sheds resulting from agronomic practices. A 1,3-dichloropropene (1,3-D) air monitoring study in high use townships in Merced County, CA, logged 3-day average air concentrations at nine locations over a 14.5month period. SOFEA, using weather data measured at the site, and using a historical CDPR regulatory assumption of a constant 320m mixing height, predicted the general pattern and correct order of magnitude for 1,3-D air concentrations as a function of time, but failed to estimate the highest observed 1,3-D concentrations of the monitoring study. A time series and statistical comparison of the measured and modeled data indicated that the model underestimated 1,3-D concentrations during calm periods (wind speed <1m/s), such that the annual average concentration was under predicted by approximately 4.7-fold, and the variability was not representative of the measured data. Calm periods are associated with low mixing heights (MHs) and are more prevalent in the Central Valley of CA during the winter months, and thus the assumption of a constant 320m mixing height is not appropriate. An algorithm was developed to calculate the MH using the air temperature in the weather file when the wind speed was <1m/s. When the model was run using the revised MHs, the average of the modeled 1,3-D concentration Probability Distribution Function (PDF) was within 5% of the measured PDF, and the variability in modeled concentrations more closely matched the measured dataset. Use of the PCRAMMET processed weather data from the site (including PCRAMMET MH) resulted in the global annual average concentration within 2-fold of measured data. Receptor density was also found to have an effect on the modeled 1,3-D concentration PDF, and a 50×50 receptor grid in the nine township domain captured the measured 1,3-D concentration distribution much better than a 3×3 receptor grid (i.e., simulated receptors at the nine monitoring locations). Comparison of the monitored and simulated PDF for 72-h 1,3-D concentrations indicated that SOFEA slightly over predicts the 1,3-D concentration distribution at all percentiles below the 99th with slight under prediction of the 99-100th percentile values. This suggests that without further refinement, the SOFEA2 model, based upon field validation observations, will result in representative but conservative estimates of lifetime exposure to 1,3-D for bystanders in 1,3-D use areas. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Numerical modelling assessment of climate-change impacts and mitigation measures on the Querença-Silves coastal aquifer (Algarve, Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hugman, Rui; Stigter, Tibor; Costa, Luis; Monteiro, José Paulo

2017-11-01

Predicted changes in climate will lead to seawater intrusion in the Querença-Silves (QS) coastal aquifer (south Portugal) during the coming century if the current water-resource-management strategy is maintained. As for much of the Mediterranean, average rainfall is predicted to decrease along with increasing seasonal and inter-annual variability and there is a need to understand how these changes will affect the sustainable use of groundwater resources. A density-coupled flow and transport model of the QS was used to simulate an ensemble of climate, water-use and adaptation scenarios from 2010 to 2099 taking into account intra- and inter-annual variability in recharge and groundwater use. By considering several climate models, bias correction and recharge calculation methods, a degree of uncertainty was included. Changes in rainfall regimes will have an immediate effect on groundwater discharge; however, the effect on saltwater intrusion is attenuated by the freshwater-saltwater interfaces' comparatively slow rate of movement. Comparing the effects of adaptation measures demonstrates that the extent of intrusion in the QS is controlled by the long-term water budget, as the effectiveness of both demand and supply oriented measures is proportional to the change in water budget, and that to maintain the current position, average groundwater discharge should be in the order of 50 × 106 m3 yr-1.

Pre-development conditions to assess the impact of growth in an urbanizing watershed in Northern Virginia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Saurav; Godrej, Adil N.; Grizzard, Thomas J.

2016-09-01

Pre-development conditions are an easily understood state to which watershed nonpoint nutrient reduction targets may be referenced. Using the pre-development baseline, a "developed-excess" measure may be computed for changes due to anthropogenic development. Developed-excess is independent of many geographical, physical, and hydrological characteristics of the region and after normalization by area may be used for comparison among various sub-sets of the watershed, such as jurisdictions or land use types. We have demonstrated this method by computing pre-development nitrogen and phosphorus loads entering the Occoquan Reservoir from its tributary watershed in Northern Virginia. The pre-development loads in this study were computed using the calibrated water quality models for the period 2002-2007. Current forest land was used as a surrogate for pre-development land use conditions for the watershed and developed-excess was estimated for fluvial loads of Total Inorganic Nitrogen (TIN) and Orthophosphate-Phosphorus (OP) by subtracting simulated predevelopment loads from observed loads. It was observed that within the study period (2002-2007), the average annual developed-excess represented about 30% of the TIN and OP average annual loads exported to the reservoir. Comparison of the two disturbed land use types, urban and agricultural, showed that urban land uses exported significantly more excess nonpoint nutrient load per unit area than agricultural land uses.

Future productivity and phenology changes in European grasslands for different warming levels: implications for grassland management and carbon balance.

PubMed

Chang, Jinfeng; Ciais, Philippe; Viovy, Nicolas; Soussana, Jean-François; Klumpp, Katja; Sultan, Benjamin

2017-12-01

Europe has warmed more than the global average (land and ocean) since pre-industrial times, and is also projected to continue to warm faster than the global average in the twenty-first century. According to the climate models ensemble projections for various climate scenarios, annual mean temperature of Europe for 2071-2100 is predicted to be 1-5.5 °C higher than that for 1971-2000. Climate change and elevated CO 2 concentration are anticipated to affect grassland management and livestock production in Europe. However, there has been little work done to quantify the European-wide response of grassland to future climate change. Here we applied ORCHIDEE-GM v2.2, a grid-based model for managed grassland, over European grassland to estimate the impacts of future global change. Increases in grassland productivity are simulated in response to future global change, which are mainly attributed to the simulated fertilization effect of rising CO 2 . The results show significant phenology shifts, in particular an earlier winter-spring onset of grass growth over Europe. A longer growing season is projected over southern and southeastern Europe. In other regions, summer drought causes an earlier end to the growing season, overall reducing growing season length. Future global change allows an increase of management intensity with higher than current potential annual grass forage yield, grazing capacity and livestock density, and a shift in seasonal grazing capacity. We found a continual grassland soil carbon sink in Mediterranean, Alpine, North eastern, South eastern and Eastern regions under specific warming level (SWL) of 1.5 and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate. However, this carbon sink is found to saturate, and gradually turn to a carbon source at warming level reaching 3.5 °C. This study provides a European-wide assessment of the future changes in productivity and phenology of grassland, and their consequences for the management intensity and the carbon balance. The simulated productivity increase in response to future global change enables an intensification of grassland management over Europe. However, the simulated increase in the interannual variability of grassland productivity over some regions may reduce the farmers' ability to take advantage of the increased long-term mean productivity in the face of more frequent, and more severe drops of productivity in the future.

75 FR 63889 - Proposed Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-18

...: Railroads. Respondent Universe: Class I Railroads. Frequency of Submission: On occasion. Average time per Total annual Total annual CFR Section Respondent universe Total annual responses response burden hours.... Form Number(s): N/A. Affected Public: Railroads. Respondent Universe: 685 railroads/ 4 locomotive...

78 FR 18672 - Proposed Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-27

... monitoring regulatory compliance. Form Number(s): N/A. Affected Public: Businesses. Respondent Universe: 728 railroads. Frequency of Submission: On occasion. Average time CFR section Respondent universe Total annual... time CFR section Respondent universe Total annual per response Total annual responses (minutes) burden...

Method of estimating natural recharge to the Edwards Aquifer in the San Antonio area, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puente, Celso

1978-01-01

The principal errors in the estimates of annual recharge are related to errors in estimating runoff in ungaged areas, which represent about 30 percent of the infiltration area. The estimated long-term average annual recharge in each basin, however, is probably representative of the actual recharge because the averaging procedure tends to cancel out the major errors.

Ecological setting of the Wind River old-growth forest.

Treesearch

David C. Shaw; Jerry F. Franklin; Ken Bible; Jeffrey Klopatek; Elizabeth Freeman; Sarah Greene; Geoffrey G. Parker

2004-01-01

The Wind River old-growth forest, in the southern Cascade Range of Washington State, is a cool (average annual temperature, 8.7°C), moist (average annual precipitation, 2223 mm), 500-year-old Douglas-fir-western hemlock forest of moderate to low productivity at 371-m elevation on a less than 10% slope. There is a seasonal snowpack (November-March), and rain-on-snow and...

Northwest Forest Plan—the first 10 years (1994–2003): status and trends of northern spotted owl populations and habitat.

Treesearch

Joseph Lint

2005-01-01

This report presents results from monitoring spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) populations and habitat during the first 10 years of implementation of the Northwest Forest Plan (the Plan). Estimated population decline ranged from 0 to 10 percent across study areas (weighted average of 3.4 percent) annually. The average annual rate of decline...

Small Hardwoods Reduce Growth of Pine Overstory

Treesearch

Charles X. Grano

1970-01-01

Dense understory hardwoods materially decreased the growth of a 53-year-old and a 47-year-old stand of loblolly and shortleaf pines. Over a 14-year period, hardwood eradication with chemicals increased average annual yield from the 53-year-old stand by 14.3 cubic feet, or 123 board-feet per acre. In the 47-year-old stand the average annual treatment advantage was...

Hydrogeology and ground-water flow in the carbonate rocks of the Little Lehigh Creek basin, Lehigh County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, R.A.; Cecil, L.D.; Senior, L.A.

1991-01-01

The Little Lehigh Creek basin is underlain mainly by a complex assemblage of highly-deformed Cambrian and Ordovician carbonate rocks. The Leithsville Formation, Allentown Dolomite, Beekmantown Group, and Jacksonburg Limestone act as a single hydrologic unit. Ground water moves through fractures and other secondary openings and generally is under water-table conditions. Median annual ground-water discharge (base flow) to Little Lehigh Creek near Allentown (station 01451500) during 1946-86 was 12.97 inches or 82 percent of streamflow. Average annual recharge for 1975-83 was 21.75 inches. Groundwater and surface-water divides do not coincide in the basin. Ground-water underflow from the Little Lehigh Creek basin to the Cedar Creek basin in 1987 was 4 inches per year. A double-mass curve analysis of the relation of cumulative precipitation at Allentown to the flow of Schantz Spring for 1956-84 showed that cessation of quarry pumping and development of ground water for public supply in the Schantz Spring basin did not affect the flow of Schantz Spring. Ground-water flow in the Little Lehigh Creek basin was simulated using a finite-difference, two-dimensional computer model. The geologic units in the modeled area were simulated as a single water-table aquifer. The 134-squaremile area of carbonate rocks between the Lehigh River and Sacony Creek was modeled to include the natural hydrologic boundaries of the ground-water-flow system. The ground-water-flow model was calibrated under steady-state conditions using 1975-83 average recharge, evapotranspiration, and pumping rates. Each geologic unit was assigned a different hydraulic conductivity. Initial aquifer hydraulic conductivity was estimated from specific-capacity data. The average (1975-83) water budget for the Little Lehigh Creek basin was simulated. The simulated base flow from the carbonate rocks of the Little Lehigh Creek basin above gaging station 01451500 is 11.85 inches per year. The simulated ground-water underflow from the Little Lehigh Creek basin to the Cedar Creek basin is 4.04 inches per year. For steady-state calibration, the root-mean-squared difference between observed and simulated heads was 21.19 feet. The effects of increased ground-water development on base flow and underflow out of the Little Lehigh Creek basin for average and drought conditions were simulated by locating a hypothetical well field in different parts of the basin. Steady-state simulations were used to represent equilibrium conditions, which would be the maximum expected long-term effect. Increased ground-water development was simulated as hypothetical well fields pumping at the rate of 15, 25, and 45 million gallons per day in addition to existing ground-water withdrawals. Four hypothetical well fields were located near and away from Little Lehigh Creek in upstream and downstream areas. The effects of pumping a well field in different parts of the Little Lehigh Creek basin were compared. Pumping a well field located near the headwaters of Little Lehigh Creek and away from the stream would have greatest effect on inducing underflow from the Sacony Greek basin and the least effect on reducing base flow and underflow to the Ceda^r Creek basin. Pumping a well field located near the headwaters of Little Leh|igh Creek near the stream would have less impact on inducing underflow from|the Sacony Creek basin and a greater impact on reducing the base flow of Little Lehigh Creek because more of the pumpage would come from diverted base flow. Pumping a well field located in the downstream area of the Little Lehigh Creek basin away from the stream would have the greatest effect on the underflow to the Cedar Creek basin. Pumping a well field located in the downstream area of the Little Lehigh Creek basin near the stream would have the greatest effect on reducing the base flow of Little Lehigh Cteek. Model simulations show that groundwater withdrawals do not cause a proportional reduction in base flow. Under average conditions, ground-water withdrawals are equal to 48 to 70 percent of simulated base-flow reductions; under drought conditions, ground-water withdrawals are equal to 35 to 73 percent of simulated base-flow reductions. The hydraulic effects of pumping largely depend on well location. In the Little Lehigh basin, surface-water and ground-water divides do not coincide, and ground-water development, especially near surface-water divides, can cause ground-water divides to shift and induce ground-water underflow from adjacent basins. Large-scale ground-water pumping in a basin may not produce expected reductions of base flow in that basin because of shifts in the ground-water divide; however, such shifts can reduce base flow in adjacent surface-water basins. 

Survival of northern pintails banded during winter in North America, 1950-88

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hestbeck, J.B.

1993-01-01

From 1950 through 1988, the continental breeding population of northern pintails (Anas acuta) varied from 2.0 million to 9.9 million. Because pintails have high fidelity to certain wintering grounds along coasts and large bodies of water, management on these wintering areas may increase population size if changes in winter survival rate are related to changes in population size. I used band-recovery data to estimate survival rates for winter-banded pintails and to test for sex-specific, temporal, and geographic variation in survival rates. Survival rate estimates varied between 0.632 and 0.806 for males, and 0.421 and 0.769 for females. Males had higher (P lt 0.0001) average annual survival rates than females. Limited geographic variation occurred in estimates of average annual survival rates for males, and no variation occurred for females. Males had lower average annual survival rates in the Imperial Valley than in central California (P = 0.007) or in the Gulf Coast (P = 0.092). Little annual variation was found within time periods. However, longer-term variation was found in survival rate estimates for males and females. Males had higher (P = 0.054) average annual survival rates in the Pacific Flyway during 1959-61, a period of drought, breeding-population decline, and restrictive hunting regulations, than during 1950-58, a period with a higher breeding population and liberal regulations. The increase in wintering population size in the Pacific Flyway during the 1970's was associated with a higher average annual survival rate for females in the Pacific Flyway than during the 1950's. Results from the Pacific Flyway suggested that an interaction may exist between population size and the effect of harvest regulations on survival of males. Changes in harvest regulations appeared to have a greater effect at lower population levels.

Marine Cloud Brightening: regional applications to the weakening of hurricanes and reduction in coral bleaching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadian, A.; Hauser, R.; Kleypas, J. A.; Latham, J.; Parkes, B.; Salter, S.

2013-12-01

This study examines the potential to cool ocean surface waters in regions of hurricane genesis and early development. This would be achieved by seeding, with copious quantities of seawater cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), low-level maritime stratocumulus clouds covering these regions or those at the source of incoming currents. Higher cloud droplet density would increase these clouds' reflectivity to incoming sunlight, and possibly their longevity. This approach is a more localized application of the Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) geoengineering technique promoting global cooling. By utilizing a climate ocean/atmosphere coupled model, HadGEM1, and by judicious seeding of maritime stratocumulus clouds, we demonstrate that we may be able to significantly reduce sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in hurricane development regions. Thus artificial seeding may reduce hurricane intensity; but how well the magnitude of this effect is yet to be determined. Increases in coral bleaching events over the last few decades have been largely caused by rising SSTs, and continued warming is expected to cause even greater increases through this century. Using thr same Global Climate Model to examine the potential of MCB to cool oceanic surface waters in three coral reef provinces. Our simulations indicate that under doubled CO2 conditions, the substantial increases in coral bleaching conditions from current values in three reef regions (Caribbean, French Polynesia, and the Great Barrier Reef) were eliminated when MCB was applied, which reduced the SSTs at these sites roughly to their original values. In this study we also illustrate how even regional application of MCB can affect the planetary meridional heat flux and the reduction in poleward heat transfer. (a) Change in annual average sea surface temperature, Celsius, between the 2xCO2 and CONTROL simulations. (b) Change in annual average sea surface temperature, Celsius, between the CONTROL and 2xCO2+MCB simulations. The dashed black boxes in both panels represent the three coral reef regions. In the Southern north Atlantic, the warmer SSTs in (a) is reduced to the current "control" temperatures, weakening hurricane formation.

Ranking GCM Estimates of Twentieth Century Precipitation Seasonality in the Western U.S. and its Influence on Floristic Provinces.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, K. L.; Eischeid, J. K.; Garfin, G. M.; Ironside, K.; Cobb, N. S.

2008-12-01

Floristic provinces of the western United States (west of 100W) can be segregated into three regions defined by significant seasonal precipitation during the months of: 1) November-March (Mediterranean); 2) July- September (Monsoonal); or, 3) May-June (Rocky Mountain). This third region is best defined by the absence of the late spring-early summer drought that affects regions 1 and 2. Each of these precipitation regimes is characterized by distinct vegetation types and fire seasonality adapted to that particular cycle of seasonal moisture availability and deficit. Further, areas where these regions blend from one to another can support even more complex seasonal patterns and resulting distinctive vegetation types. As a result, modeling the effects of climates on these ecosystems requires confidence that GCMs can at least approximate these sub- continental seasonal precipitation patterns. We evaluated the late Twentieth Century (1950-1999 AD) estimates of annual precipitation seasonality produced by 22 GCMs contained within the IPCC Fourth Assessment (AR4). These modeled estimates were compared to values from the PRISM dataset, extrapolated from station data, over the same historical period for the 3 seasonal periods defined above. The correlations between GCM estimates and PRISM values were ranked using 4 measures: 1) A map pattern relationship based on the correlation coefficient, 2) A map pattern relationship based on the congruence coefficient, 3) The ratio of simulated/observed area averaged precipitation based on the seasonal precipitation amounts, and, 4) The ratio of simulated/observed area averaged precipitation based on the seasonal precipitation percentages of the annual total. For each of the four metrics, the rank order of models was very similar. The ranked order of the performance of the different models quantified aspects of the model performance visible in the mapped results. While some models represented the seasonal patterns very well, others showed little correspondence with the regional patterns, especially for the summer monsoon period. These sub-continental patterns were especially well simulated over this period by the UKMO-HadGEM1, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, and the MRI-CGCM2 model runs.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of atypical long-acting antipsychotics for treating chronic schizophrenia in Finland.

PubMed

Einarson, Thomas R; Pudas, Hanna; Zilbershtein, Roman; Jensen, Rasmus; Vicente, Colin; Piwko, Charles; Hemels, Michiel E H

2013-09-01

In Finland, regional rates of schizophrenia exceed those in most countries, impacting the healthcare burden. This study determined the cost-effectiveness of long-acting antipsychotic (LAI) drugs paliperidone palmitate (PP-LAI), olanzapine pamoate (OLZ-LAI), and risperidone (RIS-LAI) for chronic schizophrenia. This study adapted a decision tree analysis from Norway for the Finnish National Health Service. Country-specific data were sought from the literature and public documents, guided by clinical experts. Costs of health services and products were retrieved from literature sources and current price lists. This simulation study estimated average 1-year costs for treating patients with each LAI, average remission days, rates of hospitalization and emergency room visits and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). PP-LAI was dominant. Its estimated annual average cost was €10,380/patient and was associated with 0.817 QALY; OLZ-LAI cost €12,145 with 0.810 QALY; RIS-LAI cost €12,074 with 0.809 QALY. PP-LAI had the lowest rates of hospitalization, emergency room visits, and relapse days. This analysis was robust against most variations in input values except adherence rates. PP-LAI was dominant over OLZ-LAI and RIS-LAI in 77.8% and 85.9% of simulations, respectively. Limitations include the 1-year time horizon (as opposed to lifetime costs), omission of the costs of adverse events, and the assumption of universal accessibility. In Finland, PP-LAI dominated the other LAIs as it was associated with a lower cost and better clinical outcomes.

Modeled Impacts of Chronic Wasting Disease on White-Tailed Deer in a Semi-Arid Environment.

PubMed

Foley, Aaron M; Hewitt, David G; DeYoung, Charles A; DeYoung, Randy W; Schnupp, Matthew J

2016-01-01

White-tailed deer are a culturally and economically important game species in North America, especially in South Texas. The recent discovery of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in captive deer facilities in Texas has increased concern about the potential emergence of CWD in free-ranging deer. The concern is exacerbated because much of the South Texas region is a semi-arid environment with variable rainfall, where precipitation is strongly correlated with fawn recruitment. Further, the marginally productive rangelands, in combination with erratic fawn recruitment, results in populations that are frequently density-independent, and thus sensitive to additive mortality. It is unknown how a deer population in semi-arid regions would respond to the presence of CWD. We used long-term empirical datasets from a lightly harvested (2% annual harvest) population in conjunction with 3 prevalence growth rates from CWD afflicted areas (0.26%, 0.83%, and 2.3% increases per year) via a multi-stage partially deterministic model to simulate a deer population for 25 years under four scenarios: 1) without CWD and without harvest, 2) with CWD and without harvest, 3) with CWD and male harvest only, and 4) with CWD and harvest of both sexes. The modeled populations without CWD and without harvest averaged a 1.43% annual increase over 25 years; incorporation of 2% annual harvest of both sexes resulted in a stable population. The model with slowest CWD prevalence rate growth (0.26% annually) without harvest resulted in stable populations but the addition of 1% harvest resulted in population declines. Further, the male age structure in CWD models became skewed to younger age classes. We incorporated fawn:doe ratios from three CWD afflicted areas in Wisconsin and Wyoming into the model with 0.26% annual increase in prevalence and populations did not begin to decline until ~10%, ~16%, and ~26% of deer were harvested annually. Deer populations in variable environments rely on high adult survivorship to buffer the low and erratic fawn recruitment rates. The increase in additive mortality rates for adults via CWD negatively impacted simulated population trends to the extent that hunter opportunity would be greatly reduced. Our results improve understanding of the potential influences of CWD on deer populations in semi-arid environments with implications for deer managers, disease ecologists, and policy makers.

Modeled Impacts of Chronic Wasting Disease on White-Tailed Deer in a Semi-Arid Environment

PubMed Central

Hewitt, David G.; DeYoung, Charles A.; DeYoung, Randy W.; Schnupp, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

White-tailed deer are a culturally and economically important game species in North America, especially in South Texas. The recent discovery of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in captive deer facilities in Texas has increased concern about the potential emergence of CWD in free-ranging deer. The concern is exacerbated because much of the South Texas region is a semi-arid environment with variable rainfall, where precipitation is strongly correlated with fawn recruitment. Further, the marginally productive rangelands, in combination with erratic fawn recruitment, results in populations that are frequently density-independent, and thus sensitive to additive mortality. It is unknown how a deer population in semi-arid regions would respond to the presence of CWD. We used long-term empirical datasets from a lightly harvested (2% annual harvest) population in conjunction with 3 prevalence growth rates from CWD afflicted areas (0.26%, 0.83%, and 2.3% increases per year) via a multi-stage partially deterministic model to simulate a deer population for 25 years under four scenarios: 1) without CWD and without harvest, 2) with CWD and without harvest, 3) with CWD and male harvest only, and 4) with CWD and harvest of both sexes. The modeled populations without CWD and without harvest averaged a 1.43% annual increase over 25 years; incorporation of 2% annual harvest of both sexes resulted in a stable population. The model with slowest CWD prevalence rate growth (0.26% annually) without harvest resulted in stable populations but the addition of 1% harvest resulted in population declines. Further, the male age structure in CWD models became skewed to younger age classes. We incorporated fawn:doe ratios from three CWD afflicted areas in Wisconsin and Wyoming into the model with 0.26% annual increase in prevalence and populations did not begin to decline until ~10%, ~16%, and ~26% of deer were harvested annually. Deer populations in variable environments rely on high adult survivorship to buffer the low and erratic fawn recruitment rates. The increase in additive mortality rates for adults via CWD negatively impacted simulated population trends to the extent that hunter opportunity would be greatly reduced. Our results improve understanding of the potential influences of CWD on deer populations in semi-arid environments with implications for deer managers, disease ecologists, and policy makers. PMID:27711208

Estimation of global radiation for Sri Lanka

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samuel, T.D.M.A.

1991-01-01

There are several formulae that relate global radiation to other climatological parameters such as sunshine hours, relative humidity, maximum temperature, and average temperature. In this paper a generally accepted modified form of the formula first introduced by Angstrom is used. It relates global radiation to hours of sunshine that have been measured for several years in many of the meteorological stations in Sri Lanka. The annual average of the ratio of the hours of sunshine to the length of the day, i.e., annual average of (S/Z), is found to vary considerably and to lie in the range 0.42-0.66. Fre're etmore » al., have found, using data from many parts of the world, a general graphical representation for the variation of a and b with annual average (S/Z) lying in the range 0.28 to 0.75. This variation of a and b can be expressed as quadratic functions are modified and used to determine a and b values for stations in Sri Lanka.« less

Comparison of HSPF and PRMS model simulated flows using different temporal and spatial scales in the Black Hills, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chalise, D. R.; Haj, Adel E.; Fontaine, T.A.

2018-01-01

The hydrological simulation program Fortran (HSPF) [Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran version 12.2 (Computer software). USEPA, Washington, DC] and the precipitation runoff modeling system (PRMS) [Precipitation Runoff Modeling System version 4.0 (Computer software). USGS, Reston, VA] models are semidistributed, deterministic hydrological tools for simulating the impacts of precipitation, land use, and climate on basin hydrology and streamflow. Both models have been applied independently to many watersheds across the United States. This paper reports the statistical results assessing various temporal (daily, monthly, and annual) and spatial (small versus large watershed) scale biases in HSPF and PRMS simulations using two watersheds in the Black Hills, South Dakota. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (r">rr), and coefficient of determination (R2">R2R2) statistics for the daily, monthly, and annual flows were used to evaluate the models’ performance. Results from the HSPF models showed that the HSPF consistently simulated the annual flows for both large and small basins better than the monthly and daily flows, and the simulated flows for the small watershed better than flows for the large watershed. In comparison, the PRMS model results show that the PRMS simulated the monthly flows for both the large and small watersheds better than the daily and annual flows, and the range of statistical error in the PRMS models was greater than that in the HSPF models. Moreover, it can be concluded that the statistical error in the HSPF and the PRMSdaily, monthly, and annual flow estimates for watersheds in the Black Hills was influenced by both temporal and spatial scale variability.

Climate Expressions in Cellulose Isotopologues Over the Southeast Asian Monsoon Domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herzog, M. G.; LeGrande, A. N.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2013-12-01

Southeast Asia experiences a highly variant climate, strongly influenced by the Southeast Asian monsoon. Oxygen isotopes in the alpha cellulose of tree rings can be used as a proxy measure of climate, but it is not clear which parameter (precipitation, temperature, water vapor, etc) is the most influential. Earlier forward models using observed meteorological data have been successful simulating tree ring cellulose oxygen isotopes in the tropics. However, by creating a cellulose oxygen isotope model which uses input data from GISS ModelE climate runs, we are able to reduce model variability and integrate δ18O in tree ring cellulose over the entire monsoon domain for the past millennium. Simulated timescales of δ18O in cellulose show a consistent annual cycle, allowing confidence in the identification of interdecadal and interannual climate variability. By comparing paleoclimate data with Global Circulation Model (GCM) outputs and a forward tree cellulose δ18O model, this study explores how δ18O can be used as a proxy measure of the monsoon on both local and regional scales. Simulated δ18O in soil water and δ18O in water vapor were found to explain the most variability in the paleoclimate data. Precipitation amount and temperature held little significance. Our results suggest that δ18O in tree cellulose is most influenced by regional controls directly related to cellulose production. top: monthly modeled output for d18O cellulose center: annually averaged model output of d18O cellulose bottom: observed monthly paleoproxy data for d18O cellulose

Pluri-annual sediment budget in a navigated river system: the Seine River (France).

PubMed

Vilmin, Lauriane; Flipo, Nicolas; de Fouquet, Chantal; Poulin, Michel

2015-01-01

This study aims at quantifying pluri-annual Total Suspended Matter (TSM) budgets, and notably the share of river navigation in total re-suspension at a long-term scale, in the Seine River along a 225 km stretch including the Paris area. Erosion is calculated based on the transport capacity concept with an additional term for the energy dissipated by river navigation. Erosion processes are fitted for the 2007-2011 period based on i) a hydrological typology of sedimentary processes and ii) a simultaneous calibration and retrospective validation procedure. The correlation between observed and simulated TSM concentrations is higher than 0.91 at all monitoring stations. A variographic analysis points out the possible sources of discrepancies between the variabilities of observed and simulated TSM concentrations at three time scales: sub-weekly, monthly and seasonally. Most of the error on the variability of simulated concentrations concerns sub-weekly variations and may be caused by boundary condition estimates rather than modeling of in-river processes. Once fitted, the model permits to quantify that only a small fraction of the TSM flux sediments onto the river bed (<0.3‰). The river navigation contributes significantly to TSM re-suspension in average (about 20%) and during low flow periods (over 50%). Given the significant impact that sedimentary processes can have on the water quality of rivers, these results highlight the importance of taking into account river navigation as a source of re-suspension, especially during low flow periods when biogeochemical processes are the most intense. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Incidence of Malignant Tumors in Environmentally Disadvantaged Regions of Kazakhstan

PubMed

Mamyrbayev, Arstan; Djarkenov, Timur; Dosbayev, Askar; Dusembayeva, Nailya; Shpakov, Anatolyi; Umarova, Gulmira; Drobchenko, Yelena; Kunurkulzhayev, Temirgali; Zhaylybaev, Mukhtar; Isayeva, Gulnar

2016-12-01

Objective: To explore the prevalence of malignant tumors in the adult population through 2003-2014 in parts of the Aral Sea region: a zone of ecological disaster, a zone of ecological crisis and a zone of precritical conditions. Methods: The long-time average annual levels of cancer morbidity stratified by zones of the Aral Sea region and trends of long-time average annual incidence indicators of malignant tumors were identified. Leading cancer localizations in the adult population was established and associations between cancer incidence and environmental pollution were analyzed. In addition, associations between individual risk factors and cancer incidence in the adult population was established. Correlations between a hazard index and the cancer incidence in the adult population were calculated. Results: In all three Aral Sea regions, as well as in Zhanaarkinskii district, leading cancer in adult population was esophageal, stomach, tracheal, lung, hepatobiliary, and breast. Long-time average annual levels of cancer morbidity in adult population living in the Aral sea region is 1.5 times higher comparing to the control region. In particular, long-time average annual levels of cancer morbidity in adult population living in the zone of ecological disaster was 57.2% higher, in the zone of ecological crisis - 61.9% higher, and in the zone of precritical condition – 16.8% higher. Long-time average annual levels in the adult population of the Aral Sea region significantly exceeded control levels for brain and central nervous system cancer, cancer of bone and articular cartilage, and thyroid cancer. Conclusion: It has was established that the total cancer morbidity depended on the total hazard index associated with the inhalation of nickel and the combined cadmium intake (r=0.8). Creative Commons Attribution License

The Incidence of Malignant Tumors in Environmentally Disadvantaged Regions of Kazakhstan

PubMed Central

Mamyrbayev, Arstan; Djarkenov, Timur; Dosbayev, Askar; Dusembayeva, Nailya; Shpakov, Anatolyi; Umarova, Gulmira; Drobchenko, Yelena; Kunurkulzhayev, Temirgali; Zhaylybaev, Mukhtar; Isayeva, Gulnar

2016-01-01

Objective: To explore the prevalence of malignant tumors in the adult population through 2003-2014 in parts of the Aral Sea region: a zone of ecological disaster, a zone of ecological crisis and a zone of precritical conditions. Methods: The long-time average annual levels of cancer morbidity stratified by zones of the Aral Sea region and trends of long-time average annual incidence indicators of malignant tumors were identified. Leading cancer localizations in the adult population was established and associations between cancer incidence and environmental pollution were analyzed. In addition, associations between individual risk factors and cancer incidence in the adult population was established. Correlations between a hazard index and the cancer incidence in the adult population were calculated. Results: In all three Aral Sea regions, as well as in Zhanaarkinskii district, leading cancer in adult population was esophageal, stomach, tracheal, lung, hepatobiliary, and breast. Long-time average annual levels of cancer morbidity in adult population living in the Aral sea region is 1.5 times higher comparing to the control region. In particular, long-time average annual levels of cancer morbidity in adult population living in the zone of ecological disaster was 57.2% higher, in the zone of ecological crisis - 61.9% higher, and in the zone of precritical condition – 16.8% higher. Long-time average annual levels in the adult population of the Aral Sea region significantly exceeded control levels for brain and central nervous system cancer, cancer of bone and articular cartilage, and thyroid cancer. Conclusion: It has was established that the total cancer morbidity depended on the total hazard index associated with the inhalation of nickel and the combined cadmium intake (r=0.8). PMID:28125862

Trends in incidence of borderline ovarian tumors in Denmark 1978-2006.

PubMed

Hannibal, Charlotte Gerd; Huusom, Lene Drasbek; Kjaerbye-Thygesen, Anette; Tabor, Ann; Kjaer, Susanne K

2011-04-01

To examine period-, age- and histology-specific trends in the incidence rate of borderline ovarian tumors in Denmark in 1978-2006. Register-based cohort study. Denmark 1978-2006. 5079 women diagnosed with a borderline ovarian tumor in at least one of two nationwide registries (4312 epithelial tumors and 767 non-epithelial/unspecified tumors). Estimation of overall incidence rates and period-, age- and histology-specific incidence rates. Age-adjustment was done using the World Standard POPULATION. To evaluate incidence trends over time, we estimated average annual percentage change and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using log-linear Poisson models. Age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates and average annual percentage change. The incidence of epithelial borderline ovarian tumors increased from 2.6 to 5.5 per 100,000 women-years between 1978 and 2006, with an average annual percentage change of 2.6% (95% CI: 2.2-3.0). The median age at diagnosis was 52 years. Women 40 years or older had a higher average annual percentage change than women younger than 40 years. Most tumors were mucinous (49.9%) and serous tumors (44.4%). Women with mucinous tumors were younger at diagnosis (50 years) compared with women with serous tumors (53 years). Women with serous tumors had a higher average annual percentage incidence change than women with mucinous tumors. The incidence rate of borderline ovarian tumors increased significantly in Denmark in 1978-2006. In line with results for ovarian cancer, Denmark had a higher incidence rate of borderline ovarian tumors compared with the other Nordic countries in 1978-2006. © 2011 The Authors Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica© 2011 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Collegiate ACL Injury Rates Across 15 Sports: National Collegiate Athletic Association Injury Surveillance System Data Update (2004-2005 Through 2012-2013).

PubMed

Agel, Julie; Rockwood, Todd; Klossner, David

2016-11-01

To present data on the rate of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in 15 collegiate sports from 2004 to 2005 through 2012 to 2013 updating the 1988-1989 to 2003-2004 data. Prospectively designed descriptive epidemiology study. National Collegiate Athletic Association Schools. National Collegiate Athletic Association School athletes. Injury rate by year and sport. Most ACL injuries to women occurred by a noncontact mechanism (60%) versus a contact mechanism for men (59%). The highest average annual rate of ACL injury for men was found in football (0.17 per 1000 athlete-exposure [A-E]). The highest average annual rate of ACL injury for women was found in lacrosse (0.23 per 1000 A-E). There were statistically significant increases in average annual injury rate for men's (P = 0.04) and women's soccer (P = 0.01) and a statistically significant decrease in women's gymnastics over the 9 years (=0.009). Controlling for exposures, there were statistically significant increases in the average annual number of injuries for men's and women's basketball, ice hockey, field hockey, football, and volleyball and a decrease in the average annual number of injuries for baseball and women's gymnastics. Women continue to sustain ACL injuries at higher rates than men in the comparable sports of soccer, basketball, and lacrosse. Anterior cruciate ligament injury rates continue to rise in men's and women's soccer. Some sports have shown absolute increases in ACL rates, which persist even after exposure rates are taken into account. Despite extensive research and development of prevention programs before and during the time of this study, very few sports showed a reduction in ACL injury rates in this data set.

Wave energy analysis based on simulation wave data in the China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Zhan-sheng; Qian, Yu-hao; Sui, Yu-wei; Chen, Xuan; Zhang, Da

2018-05-01

In the current world, where human beings are severely plagued by environmental problems and energy crisis, the full and reasonable utilization of marine new energy resources will contribute to alleviating the energy crisis, contributing to global energy-saving, emission reduction and environmental protection, thus to promote sustainable development. In this study, we firstly simulated a 10-year (1991-2000) 6-hourly wave data of the China Sea, by using the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model nested with WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) wave model forced with Cross-Calibrated, Multi-Platform (CCMP) wind data. Considering the value size and stability of the wave energy density, we analyzed the overall characteristics of the China Sea wave energy with using the simulation wave data. Results show that: (1) The wave energy density in January and October is distinctly higher than that in April and July. The large center of annual average Wave energy density is located in the north of the South China Sea (of about 12-16 kW/m). (2) Synthetically considering the value size and stability of the wave energy density and stability, the energy-rich area is found to be located in the north region of the South China Sea.

Simulated runoff at many stream locations in the Methow River Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.

2015-01-01

Comparisons of the simulated runoff with observed runoff at six selected long-term streamflow-gaging stations showed that the simulated annual runoff was within +15.4 to -9.6 percent of the annual observed runoff. The simulated runoff generally matched the seasonal flow patterns, with bias at some stations indicated by over-simulation of the October–November late autumn season and under-simulation of the snowmelt runoff months of May and June. Sixty-one time series of daily runoff for a 26-year period representative of the long-term runoff pattern, water years 1988–2013, were simulated and provided to the trophic modeling team.

Some simulation estimates of mean annual increment of Douglas-fir: results, limitations, and implications for management.

Treesearch

Robert O. Curtis

1994-01-01

Patterns of development of mean annual increment in relation to age predicted by the widely used DFSIM, SPS, TASS, and ORGANON simulators were examined. Although predictions differ considerably among simulators for portions of the range of sites, ages, and treatments, comparisons indicated that (1) culmination is relatively late, (2) the curve is relatively flat in the...

Annual and average estimates of water-budget components based on hydrograph separation and PRISM precipitation for gaged basins in the Appalachian Plateaus Region, 1900-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelms, David L.; Messinger, Terence; McCoy, Kurt J.

2015-07-14

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Groundwater Resources Program study of the Appalachian Plateaus aquifers, annual and average estimates of water-budget components based on hydrograph separation and precipitation data from parameter-elevation regressions on independent slopes model (PRISM) were determined at 849 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations from Mississippi to New York and covered the period of 1900 to 2011. Only complete calendar years (January to December) of streamflow record at each gage were used to determine estimates of base flow, which is that part of streamflow attributed to groundwater discharge; such estimates can serve as a proxy for annual recharge. For each year, estimates of annual base flow, runoff, and base-flow index were determined using computer programs—PART, HYSEP, and BFI—that have automated the separation procedures. These streamflow-hydrograph analysis methods are provided with version 1.0 of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Toolbox, which is a new program that provides graphing, mapping, and analysis capabilities in a Windows environment. Annual values of precipitation were estimated by calculating the average of cell values intercepted by basin boundaries where previously defined in the GAGES–II dataset. Estimates of annual evapotranspiration were then calculated from the difference between precipitation and streamflow.

Satellite-derived estimates of forest leaf area index in southwest Western Australia are not tightly coupled to interannual variations in rainfall: implications for groundwater decline in a drying climate.

PubMed

Smettem, Keith R J; Waring, Richard H; Callow, John N; Wilson, Melissa; Mu, Qiaozhen

2013-08-01

There is increasing concern that widespread forest decline could occur in regions of the world where droughts are predicted to increase in frequency and severity as a result of climate change. The average annual leaf area index (LAI) is an indicator of canopy cover and the difference between the annual maximum and minimum LAI is an indicator of annual leaf turnover. In this study, we analyzed satellite-derived estimates of monthly LAI across forested coastal catchments of southwest Western Australia over a 12 year period (2000-2011) that included the driest year on record for the last 60 years. We observed that over the 12 year study period, the spatial pattern of average annual satellite-derived LAI values was linearly related to mean annual rainfall. However, interannual changes to LAI in response to changes in annual rainfall were far less than expected from the long-term LAI-rainfall trend. This buffered response was investigated using a physiological growth model and attributed to availability of deep soil moisture and/or groundwater storage. The maintenance of high LAIs may be linked to a long-term decline in areal average underground water storage and diminished summer flows, with an emerging trend toward more ephemeral flow regimes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Weighted south-wide average pulpwood prices

Treesearch

James E. Granskog; Kevin D. Growther

1991-01-01

Weighted average prices provide a more accurate representation of regional pulpwood price trends when production volumes valy widely by state. Unweighted South-wide average delivered prices for pulpwood, as reported by Timber Mart-South, were compared to average annual prices weighted by each state's pulpwood production from 1977 to 1986. Weighted average prices...

Modeling of extreme freshwater outflow from the north-eastern Japanese river basins to western Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troselj, Josko; Sayama, Takahiro; Varlamov, Sergey M.; Sasaki, Toshiharu; Racault, Marie-Fanny; Takara, Kaoru; Miyazawa, Yasumasa; Kuroki, Ryusuke; Yamagata, Toshio; Yamashiki, Yosuke

2017-12-01

This study demonstrates the importance of accurate extreme discharge input in hydrological and oceanographic combined modeling by introducing two extreme typhoon events. We investigated the effects of extreme freshwater outflow events from river mouths on sea surface salinity distribution (SSS) in the coastal zone of the north-eastern Japan. Previous studies have used observed discharge at the river mouth, as well as seasonally averaged inter-annual, annual, monthly or daily simulated data. Here, we reproduced the hourly peak discharge during two typhoon events for a targeted set of nine rivers and compared their impact on SSS in the coastal zone based on observed, climatological and simulated freshwater outflows in conjunction with verification of the results using satellite remote-sensing data. We created a set of hourly simulated freshwater outflow data from nine first-class Japanese river basins flowing to the western Pacific Ocean for the two targeted typhoon events (Chataan and Roke) and used it with the integrated hydrological (CDRMV3.1.1) and oceanographic (JCOPE-T) model, to compare the case using climatological mean monthly discharges as freshwater input from rivers with the case using our hydrological model simulated discharges. By using the CDRMV model optimized with the SCE-UA method, we successfully reproduced hindcasts for peak discharges of extreme typhoon events at the river mouths and could consider multiple river basin locations. Modeled SSS results were verified by comparison with Chlorophyll-a distribution, observed by satellite remote sensing. The projection of SSS in the coastal zone became more realistic than without including extreme freshwater outflow. These results suggest that our hydrological models with optimized model parameters calibrated to the Typhoon Roke and Chataan cases can be successfully used to predict runoff values from other extreme precipitation events with similar physical characteristics. Proper simulation of extreme typhoon events provides more realistic coastal SSS and may allow a different scenario analysis with various precipitation inputs for developing a nowcasting analysis in the future.

Surface-water availability, Tuscaloosa County, Alabama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knight, Alfred L.; Davis, Marvin E.

1975-01-01

The average annual runoff, about 1,270 mgd (million gallons per day), originating in Tuscaloosa County is equivalent to 20 inches or 0.95 mgd per square mile. The Black Warrior and Sipsey Rivers, the largest streams in the county, have average flows of 5,230 mgd and 580 mgd, respectively, where they leave the county, and median annual 7-day low flows in excess of 150 mgd and 35 mgd, respectively. North River, Big Sandy Creek, and Hurricane Creek have average flows in excess of 100 mgd and median annual 7-day low flows in excess of 2 mgd. Surface water generally contains less than 100 mg/l (milligrams per liter) dissolved solids, less than 10 mg/l chloride, and is soft to moderately hard. Streams having the higher hardness and the higher dissolved-solids content are in eastern Tuscaloosa County.

Modelling soil erosion in a Mediterranean watershed: Comparison between SWAT and AnnAGNPS models.

PubMed

Abdelwahab, O M M; Ricci, G F; De Girolamo, A M; Gentile, F

2018-06-20

In this study, the simulations generated by two of the most widely used hydrological basin-scale models, the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source (AnnAGNPS) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), were compared in a Mediterranean watershed, the Carapelle (Apulia, Southern Italy). Input data requirements, time and efforts needed for input preparation, strength and weakness points of each model, ease of use and limitations were evaluated in order to give information to users. Models were calibrated and validated at monthly time scale for hydrology and sediment load using a four year period of observations (streamflow and suspended sediment concentrations). In the driest year, the specific sediment load measured at the outlet was 0.89 t ha -1 yr -1 , while the simulated values were 0.83 t ha -1 yr -1 and 1.99 t ha -1 yr -1 for SWAT and AnnAGNPS, respectively. In the wettest year, the specific measured sediment load was 7.45 t ha -1 yr -1 , and the simulated values were 8.27 t ha -1 yr -1 and 6.23 t ha -1 yr -1 for SWAT and AnnAGNPS, respectively. Both models showed from fair to a very good correlation between observed and simulated streamflow and satisfactory for sediment load. Results showed that most of the basin is under moderate (1.4-10 t ha -1 yr -1 ) and high-risk erosion (> 10 t ha -1 yr -1 ). The sediment yield predicted by the SWAT and AnnAGNPS models were compared with estimates of soil erosion simulated by models for Europe (PESERA and RUSLE2015). The average gross erosion estimated by the RUSLE2015 model (12.5 t ha -1 yr -1 ) resulted comparable with the average specific sediment yield estimated by SWAT (8.8 t ha -1 yr -1 ) and AnnAGNPS (5.6 t ha -1 yr -1 ), while it was found that the average soil erosion estimated by PESERA is lower than the other estimates (1.2 t ha -1 yr -1 ). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increasing runoff and sediment load from the Greenland ice sheet at kangerlussuaq (Sonder Stromfjord) in a 30-year perspective, 1979-2008

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mernild, Sebastian Haugard; Liston, Glen; Hasholt, Bent

2009-01-01

This observation and modeling study provides insights into runoff and sediment load exiting the Watson River drainage basin, Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland during a 30 year period (1978/79-2007/08) when the climate experienced increasing temperatures and precipitation. The 30-year simulations quantify the terrestrial freshwater and sediment output from part of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and the land between the GrIS and the ocean, in the context of global warming and increasing GrIS surface melt. We used a snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) to simulate the winter accumulation and summer ablation processes, including runoff and surface mass balance (SMB), of the Greenland icemore » sheet. Observed sediment concentrations were related to observed runoff, producing a sediment-load time series. To a large extent, the SMB fluctuations could be explained by changes in net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation and sublimation), with 8 out of 30 years having negative SMB, mainly because of relatively low annual net precipitation. The overall trend in net precipitation and runoff increased significantly, while 5MB increased insignificantly throughout the simulation period, leading to enhanced precipitation of 0.59 km{sup 3} w.eq. (or 60%), runoff of 0.43 km{sup 3} w.eq (or 54%), and SMB of 0.16 km3 w.eq. (or 86%). Runoff rose on average from 0.80 km{sup 3} w.eq. in 1978/79 to 1.23 km{sup 3} w.eq. in 2007/08. The percentage of catchment oudet runoff explained by runoff from the GrIS decreased on average {approx} 10%, indicating that catchment runoff throughout the simulation period was influenced more by precipitation and snowmelt events, and less by runoff from the GrIS. Average variations in the increasing Kangerlussuaq runoff from 1978/79 through 2007/08 seem to follow the overall variations in satellite-derived GrIS surface melt, where 64% of the variations in simulated runoff were explained by regional melt conditions on the GrIS. Throughout the simulation period, the sediment load varied from a minimum of 0.96 x 10{sup 6} t y{sup -1} in 1991/92 to a maximum of 3.52 x 10{sup 6} t y{sup -1} in 2006/07, showing an average increase of sediment load of 9.42 x 10{sup 5} t (or 72%) throughout the period.« less

Changes in streamflow characteristics in Wisconsin as related to precipitation and land use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Garn, Herbert S.; Rose, William J.

2016-01-19

Streamflow characteristics were determined for 15 longterm streamflow-gaging stations for the periods 1915–2008, 1915–68, and 1969–2008 to identify trends. Stations selected represent flow characteristics for the major river basins in Wisconsin. Trends were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level at 13 of the 15 streamflow-gaging stations for various streamflow characteristics for 1915–2008. Most trends indicated increases in low flows for streams with agriculture as the dominant land use. The three most important findings are: increases in low flows and average flows in agricultural watersheds, decreases in flood peak discharge for many streams in both agricultural and forested watersheds, and climatic change occurred with increasing annual precipitation and changes in monthly occurrence of precipitation. When the 1915–68 period is compared to the 1969–2008 period, the annual 7-day low flow increased an average of 60 percent for nine streams in agricultural areas as compared to a 15 percent increase for the five forested streams. Average annual flow for the same periods increased 23 percent for the agriculture streams and 0.6 percent for the forested streams. The annual flood peak discharge for the same periods decreased 15 percent for agriculture streams and 8 percent for forested streams. The largest increase in the annual 7-day low flow was 117 percent, the largest increase in annual average flow was 41 percent, and the largest decrease in annual peak discharge was 51 percent. The trends in streamflow characteristics affect frequency characteristics, which are used for a variety of design and compliance purposes. The frequencies for the 1969–2008 period were compared to frequencies for the 1915–68 period. The 7-day, 10-year (Q7, 10) low flow increased 91 percent for nine agricultural streams, while the five forested streams had an increase of 18 percent. The 100-year flood peak discharge decreased an average of 15 percent for streams in the agriculture area and 27 percent for streams in the forested area. Increases in low flow for agriculture streams are attributed to changes in agricultural practices and land use as well as increased precipitation. The decrease in annual flood peak discharge with increased annual precipitation is less clear, but is attributed to increased infiltration from changes in agricultural practices and climatic changes. For future low-flow studies, the 1969–2008 period should be used to determine low-flow characteristics since it represents current (2014) conditions and was generally free of significant trends.

Applying GIPL2.0 Model to assess the permafrost dynamics on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, T.

2017-12-01

The modeling of active layer and permafrost distribution is of great importance to understand the permafrost dynamics of cold regions, especially in those regions where are difficult to approach such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). In this study we have applied the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab model (GIPL2.0) to estimate the active layer thickness and assess the permafrost thermal regime on the QTP. The GIPL 2.0 have been widely applied in the Arctic regions of Alaska, however less on the QTP. The model has been calibrated according to the four active layer in-situ measurement sites which have different underlying surface and soil characteristics. We extended the original GIPL2 model depth to the depth of 18 m. After the calibration of the GIPL2.0 at those four sites, the first-hand single point model is expanded to a regional model. The key permafrost parameters were simulated, including active layer thickness (ALT), mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) at multiple soil layers, and the permafrost classification was also carried out in order to study the permafrost the thermal stability across the QTP. To validate the performance of expanded regional-GIPL2 model, we compare simulated ALT and MAGT at the depth of zero annual amplitude (DZAA) with observed data. It is demonstrated that the modifications regional-GIPL2 model are able to improve the accuracy of permafrost thermal regime simulations greatly on the QTP. The simulated ALT are generally underestimate the observed ones with the MBE value of -0.14 m and the RMSE value of 0.22 m. For the MAGT at the DZAA of all 51 sites, the simulation errors range from - 0.9 ° to 0.9 ° with the RMSE value of 0.41 °. For the whole permafrost area of the QTP, the simulated ALT ranges from 0 to 8 m, with an average of 2.30 m. The simulated results indicate that most of regions were underlain by the sub-stable permafrost and less regions were underlain by the extremely stable permafrost.

A novel principal component analysis for spatially misaligned multivariate air pollution data.

PubMed

Jandarov, Roman A; Sheppard, Lianne A; Sampson, Paul D; Szpiro, Adam A

2017-01-01

We propose novel methods for predictive (sparse) PCA with spatially misaligned data. These methods identify principal component loading vectors that explain as much variability in the observed data as possible, while also ensuring the corresponding principal component scores can be predicted accurately by means of spatial statistics at locations where air pollution measurements are not available. This will make it possible to identify important mixtures of air pollutants and to quantify their health effects in cohort studies, where currently available methods cannot be used. We demonstrate the utility of predictive (sparse) PCA in simulated data and apply the approach to annual averages of particulate matter speciation data from national Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulatory monitors.

Building energy analysis of Electrical Engineering Building from DesignBuilder tool: calibration and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cárdenas, J.; Osma, G.; Caicedo, C.; Torres, A.; Sánchez, S.; Ordóñez, G.

2016-07-01

This research shows the energy analysis of the Electrical Engineering Building, located on campus of the Industrial University of Santander in Bucaramanga - Colombia. This building is a green pilot for analysing energy saving strategies such as solar pipes, green roof, daylighting, and automation, among others. Energy analysis was performed by means of DesignBuilder software from virtual model of the building. Several variables were analysed such as air temperature, relative humidity, air velocity, daylighting, and energy consumption. According to two criteria, thermal load and energy consumption, critical areas were defined. The calibration and validation process of the virtual model was done obtaining error below 5% in comparison with measured values. The simulations show that the average indoor temperature in the critical areas of the building was 27°C, whilst relative humidity reached values near to 70% per year. The most critical discomfort conditions were found in the area of the greatest concentration of people, which has an average annual temperature of 30°C. Solar pipes can increase 33% daylight levels into the areas located on the upper floors of the building. In the case of the green roofs, the simulated results show that these reduces of nearly 31% of the internal heat gains through the roof, as well as a decrease in energy consumption related to air conditioning of 5% for some areas on the fourth and fifth floor. The estimated energy consumption of the building was 69 283 kWh per year.

Hydrogeology of well-field areas near Tampa, Florida; Phase 2, development and documentation of a quasi-three-dimensional finite-difference model for simulation of steady-state ground-water flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hutchinson, C.B.

1984-01-01

This report describes a quasi-three-dimensional finite-difference model for simulation of steady-state ground-water flow in the Floridan aquifer over a 932-square-mile area that contains 10 municipal well fields. The over-lying surficial aquifer contains a water table and is coupled to the Floridan aquifer by leakage term that represents flow through a confining layer separating the two aquifers. Under the steady-state condition, all storage terms are set to zero. Use of the head-controlled flux condition allows simulated head and flow changes to occur in the Floridan aquifer at the model boundaries. Procedures used to calibrate the model, test its sensitivity to input-parameter errors, and validate its accuracy for predictive purposes are described. Also included are attachments that describe setting up and running the model. Example model-interrogation runs show anticipated drawdowns under high, average, and low recharge conditions with 10 well fields pumping simultaneously at the maximum annual permitted rates totaling 186.9 million gallons per day. (USGS)

One hundred years of Arctic ice cover variations as simulated by a one-dimensional, ice-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakkinen, S.; Mellor, G. L.

1990-09-01

A one-dimensional ice-ocean model consisting of a second moment, turbulent closure, mixed layer model and a three-layer snow-ice model has been applied to the simulation of Arctic ice mass and mixed layer properties. The results for the climatological seasonal cycle are discussed first and include the salt and heat balance in the upper ocean. The coupled model is then applied to the period 1880-1985, using the surface air temperature fluctuations from Hansen et al. (1983) and from Wigley et al. (1981). The analysis of the simulated large variations of the Arctic ice mass during this period (with similar changes in the mixed layer salinity) shows that the variability in the summer melt determines to a high degree the variability in the average ice thickness. The annual oceanic heat flux from the deep ocean and the maximum freezing rate and associated nearly constant minimum surface salinity flux did not vary significantly interannually. This also implies that the oceanic influence on the Arctic ice mass is minimal for the range of atmospheric variability tested.

Assessment of ecologic regression in the study of lung cancer and indoor radon.

PubMed

Stidley, C A; Samet, J M

1994-02-01

Ecologic regression studies conducted to assess the cancer risk of indoor radon to the general population are subject to methodological limitations, and they have given seemingly contradictory results. The authors use simulations to examine the effects of two major methodological problems that affect these studies: measurement error and misspecification of the risk model. In a simulation study of the effect of measurement error caused by the sampling process used to estimate radon exposure for a geographic unit, both the effect of radon and the standard error of the effect estimate were underestimated, with greater bias for smaller sample sizes. In another simulation study, which addressed the consequences of uncontrolled confounding by cigarette smoking, even small negative correlations between county geometric mean annual radon exposure and the proportion of smokers resulted in negative average estimates of the radon effect. A third study considered consequences of using simple linear ecologic models when the true underlying model relation between lung cancer and radon exposure is nonlinear. These examples quantify potential biases and demonstrate the limitations of estimating risks from ecologic studies of lung cancer and indoor radon.

Economic and Time-Sensitive Issues Surrounding CCS: A Policy Analysis.

PubMed

Maddali, Vijay; Tularam, Gurudeo Anand; Glynn, Patrick

2015-08-04

Are the existing global policies on combating global warming via the carbon capture and storage (CCS) method significant enough to curtail the temperature rise on time? We argue that it is already too late to have any reliance on CCS. The current status of CCS is that it is plagued by technical uncertainties, infrastructure, financial, and regulatory issues. The technology is far from maturity and, hence, commercialization. Simulations conducted in this work suggest that the relevance of CCS is completely defied if the annual emission growth rate is in excess of 2% between the years of 2015 and 2040. At such a growth rate, the annual emissions reduction between 2040 and 2100 will need to be in the vicinity of 5.5% by the year 2100. Considering an average annual emissions growth rate of 2.5% over the past decade, it seems unlikely that the emissions could be contained to a 2% growth level. CCS in its current shape and form is at odds with the economics of its implementation and the time in hand with which to play a significant role in a carbon mitigation strategy. There is an urgent need to rethink policies and strategies to combat global warming to at least some degree.

Wind energy potential assessment to estimate performance of selected wind turbine in northern coastal region of Semarang-Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Premono, B. S.; Tjahjana, D. D. D. P.; Hadi, S.

2017-01-01

The aims of this paper are to investigate the characteristic of the wind speed and wind energy potential in the northern coastal region of Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia. The wind data was gained from Meteorological Station of Semarang, with ten-min average time series wind data for one year period, at the height of 10 m. Weibull distribution has been used to determine the wind power density and wind energy density of the site. It was shown that the value of the two parameters, shape parameter k, and scale parameter c, were 3.37 and 5.61 m/s, respectively. The annual mean wind speed and wind speed carrying the maximum energy were 5.32 m/s and 6.45 m/s, respectively. Further, the annual energy density at the site was found at a value of 103.87 W/m2, and based on Pacific North-west Laboratory (PNL) wind power classification, at the height of 10 m, the value of annual energy density is classified into class 2. The commercial wind turbine is chosen to simulate the wind energy potential of the site. The POLARIS P25-100 is most suitable to the site. It has the capacity factor 29.79% and can produce energy 261 MWh/year.

A simulation-based approach for evaluating and comparing the environmental footprints of beef production systems.

PubMed

Rotz, C A; Isenberg, B J; Stackhouse-Lawson, K R; Pollak, E J

2013-11-01

A methodology was developed and used to determine environmental footprints of beef cattle produced at the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center (MARC) in Clay Center, NE, with the goal of quantifying improvements achieved over the past 40 yr. Information for MARC operations was gathered and used to establish parameters representing their production system with the Integrated Farm System Model. The MARC farm, cow-calf, and feedlot operations were each simulated over recent historical weather to evaluate performance, environmental impact, and economics. The current farm operation included 841 ha of alfalfa and 1,160 ha of corn to produce feed predominately for the beef herd of 5,500 cows, 1,180 replacement cattle, and 3,724 cattle finished per year. Spring and fall cow-calf herds were fed on 9,713 ha of pastureland supplemented through the winter with hay and silage produced by the farm operation. Feedlot cattle were backgrounded for 3 mo on hay and silage with some grain and finished over 7 mo on a diet high in corn and wet distillers grain. For weather year 2011, simulated feed production and use, energy use, and production costs were within 1% of actual records. A 25-yr simulation of their current production system gave an average annual carbon footprint of 10.9±0.6 kg of CO2 equivalent units per kg BW sold, and the energy required to produce that beef (energy footprint) was 26.5±4.5 MJ/kg BW. The annual water required (water footprint) was 21,300±5,600 L/kg BW sold, and the water footprint excluding precipitation was 2,790±910 L/kg BW. The simulated annual cost of producing their beef was US$2.11±0.05/kg BW. Simulation of the production practices of 2005 indicated that the inclusion of distillers grain in animal diets has had a relatively small effect on environmental footprints except that reactive nitrogen loss has increased 10%. Compared to 1970, the carbon footprint of the beef produced has decreased 6% with no change in the energy footprint, a 3% reduction in the reactive nitrogen footprint, and a 6% reduction in the real cost of production. The water footprint, excluding precipitation, has increased 42% due to greater use of irrigated corn production. This proven methodology provides a means for developing the production data needed to support regional and national full life cycle assessments of the sustainability of beef.

10 CFR Appendix P to Subpart B of... - Uniform Test Method for Measuring the Energy Consumption of Pool Heaters

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

...-1994. The expression of fuel consumption for oil-fired pool heaters shall be in Btu. 4.2Average annual fossil fuel energy for pool heaters. The average annual fuel energy for pool heater, EF, is defined as... of pool operating hours=4464 h QIN=rated fuel energy input as defined according to 2.9.1 or 2.9.2 of...

Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

2014-05-01

Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of drought periods, probably more acute by the year 2100 and in scenario A2. As a result, a decrease in inflows to the Castelo de Bode reservoir between 20 to 34% is expected, with emphasis in autumn. While for the near-term scenarios this is mostly due to a decrease in median annual inflow; for the long-term scenarios this is accompanied by lower inter-annual variability and a decrease of magnitude of wet year inflows. Associated with increased precipitation erosion potential, watershed sediment transport will probably tend to increase, enhancing phosphorous transport into surface water and thus contributing to potential eutrophication problems. However, modeling results do not indicate compromising water quality degradation. Decreased reservoir inflows should nevertheless be sufficient to sustain water supply, considering an average annual consumption of 160 hm3 y-1 and the legal prioritization of water supply over hydropower production, as worst case average annual inflows scenarios are estimated between 1 000 and 1 500 hm3 y-1. On the other hand, considering that hydropower comprises downstream releases averaging 1 400 hm3 y-1, restrictions to energy production will probably be required to compensate lower inflow periods and guaranty necessary water supply storage volumes. The presented modeling framework provided an adequate tool for assessing climate change impacts on water resources, demonstrating that climate scenarios are not likely to threaten Lisbon's water supply system but emphasizing the need for adequate reservoir management strategies contemplating the risk of competitive water uses in the Castelo de Bode reservoir.

Estimation of the climate change impact on a catchment water balance using an ensemble of GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reshmidevi, T. V.; Nagesh Kumar, D.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2018-01-01

This work evaluates the impact of climate change on the water balance of a catchment in India. Rainfall and hydro-meteorological variables for current (20C3M scenario, 1981-2000) and two future time periods: mid of the 21st century (2046-2065) and end of the century (2081-2100) are simulated using Modified Markov Model-Kernel Density Estimation (MMM-KDE) and k-nearest neighbor downscaling models. Climate projections from an ensemble of 5 GCMs (MPI-ECHAM5, BCCR-BCM2.0, CSIRO-mk3.5, IPSL-CM4, and MRI-CGCM2) are used in this study. Hydrologic simulations for the current as well as future climate scenarios are carried out using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) integrated with ArcGIS (ArcSWAT v.2009). The results show marginal reduction in runoff ratio, annual streamflow and groundwater recharge towards the end of the century. Increased temperature and evapotranspiration project an increase in the irrigation demand towards the end of the century. Rainfall projections for the future shows marginal increase in the annual average rainfall. Short and moderate wet spells are projected to decrease, whereas short and moderate dry spells are projected to increase in the future. Projected reduction in streamflow and groundwater recharge along with the increase in irrigation demand is likely to aggravate the water stress in the region under the future scenario.

Survey Summary of AGATE Concepts Demonstration at Annual NATA Convention, March 24-26, 1997. Volume 1; Basic Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1997-01-01

An AGATE Concepts Demonstration was conducted at the annual National Air Transportation Association (NATA) Convention in 1997. Following a 5-minute introductory briefing, an interactive simulation of a single-pilot, single-engine aircraft was conducted. The participant was able to take off, fly a brief enroute segment, fly a Global Positioning System (GPS) approach and landing, and repeat the approach and landing segment. The participant was provided an advanced "highway-in-the-sky" presentation on both a simulated head-up display and on a large LCD head-down display to follow throughout the flight. A single-lever power control and display concept was also provided for control of the engine throughout the flight. A second head-down, multifunction display in the instrument panel provided a moving map display for navigation purposes and monitoring of the status of the aircraft's systems. An estimated 100 people observed or participated in the demonstration, and 68 surveys were collected. The pilot ratings of the participants ranged from student to Air Transport Rating with an average of 6089 hours total flight time. The overwhelming response was that technologies that simplify piloting tasks are enthusiastically welcomed by pilots of all experience levels. The increase in situation awareness and use of the head-up display were universally accepted and lauded as steps in the right direction.

Optimisation potential for a SBR plant based upon integrated modelling for dry and wet weather conditions.

PubMed

Rönner-Holm, S G E; Kaufmann Alves, I; Steinmetz, H; Holm, N C

2009-01-01

Integrated dynamic simulation analysis of a full-scale municipal sequential batch reactor (SBR) wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) was performed using the KOSMO pollution load simulation model for the combined sewer system (CSS) and the ASM3 + EAWAG-BioP model for the WWTP. Various optimising strategies for dry and storm weather conditions were developed to raise the purification and hydraulic performance and to reduce operation costs based on simulation studies with the calibrated WWTP model. The implementation of some strategies on the plant led to lower effluent values and an average annual saving of 49,000 euro including sewage tax, which is 22% of the total running costs. Dynamic simulation analysis of CSS for an increased WWTP influent over a period of one year showed high potentials for reducing combined sewer overflow (CSO) volume by 18-27% and CSO loads for COD by 22%, NH(4)-N and P(total) by 33%. In addition, the SBR WWTP could easily handle much higher influents without exceeding the monitoring values. During the integrated simulation of representative storm events, the total emission load for COD dropped to 90%, the sewer system emitted 47% less, whereas the pollution load in the WWTP effluent increased to only 14% with 2% higher running costs.

How to improve the equity of health financial sources? - Simulation and analysis of total health expenditure of one Chinese province on system dynamics.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Sun, Yuanling; Mu, Xin; Guan, Li; Li, Jingjie

2015-08-27

We simulate and analyze Total Health Expenditure (THE) in financial sources and other economic indicators (such as THE per capita, GDP, etc.) in a province of China from 2002 to 2012 on System Dynamics. Based on actual data and certain mathematical methods, we use system dynamic software to construct a logic model for THE and changing proportions, and thus simulate the actual conditions of development and changes in THE. According to the simulation results, the government possess the largest investment in the average annual growth rate of THE, which was 25.16% in 2012. Social investment comprises the majority of the possession ratio, which was up to 41.20%. The personal investment growth rate decreased by almost 21%, but the total amount of personal investment increased by 28075 million yuan, which is far higher than the increase in government investment. Individuals are still the main carriers of health care expenses. The equity of health financial sources is still poor. The System Dynamics method used in this paper identifies a dynamic measurement process, provides a scientific basis for simulation and analysis of the changes in THE and its key constraining factors, as well as put forward suggestions for the improvement of equity of health financial sources.

Estimating the Potential Health Impact and Costs of Implementing a Local Policy for Food Procurement to Reduce the Consumption of Sodium in the County of Los Angeles

PubMed Central

Kuo, Tony; Dunet, Diane; Schmidt, Steven M.; Simon, Paul A.; Fielding, Jonathan E.

2011-01-01

Objectives. We examined approaches to reduce sodium content of food served in settings operated or funded by the government of the County of Los Angeles, California. Methods. We adapted health impact assessment methods to mathematically simulate various levels of reduction in the sodium content of food served by the County of Los Angeles and to estimate the reductions’ potential impacts on mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) among food-service customers. We used data provided by county government food-service vendors to generate these simulations. Results. Our analysis predicted that if the postulated sodium-reduction strategies were implemented, adults would consume, on average, 233 fewer milligrams of sodium each day. This would correspond to an average decrease of 0.71 millimeters of mercury in SBP among adult hypertensives, 388 fewer cases of uncontrolled hypertension in the study population, and an annual decrease of $629 724 in direct health care costs. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that a food-procurement policy can contribute to positive health and economic effects at the local level. Our approach may serve as an example of sodium-reduction analysis for other jurisdictions to follow. PMID:21680933

Documentation of a deep percolation model for estimating ground-water recharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bauer, H.H.; Vaccaro, J.J.

1987-01-01

A deep percolation model, which operates on a daily basis, was developed to estimate long-term average groundwater recharge from precipitation. It has been designed primarily to simulate recharge in large areas with variable weather, soils, and land uses, but it can also be used at any scale. The physical and mathematical concepts of the deep percolation model, its subroutines and data requirements, and input data sequence and formats are documented. The physical processes simulated are soil moisture accumulation, evaporation from bare soil, plant transpiration, surface water runoff, snow accumulation and melt, and accumulation and evaporation of intercepted precipitation. The minimum data sets for the operation of the model are daily values of precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperature, soil thickness and available water capacity, soil texture, and land use. Long-term average annual precipitation, actual daily stream discharge, monthly estimates of base flow, Soil Conservation Service surface runoff curve numbers, land surface altitude-slope-aspect, and temperature lapse rates are optional. The program is written in the FORTRAN 77 language with no enhancements and should run on most computer systems without modifications. Documentation has been prepared so that program modifications may be made for inclusions of additional physical processes or deletion of ones not considered important. (Author 's abstract)

Estimates of ground-water recharge from precipitation to glacial-deposit and bedrock aquifers on Lopez, San Juan, Orcas, and Shaw islands, San Juan County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Orr, Laura A.; Bauer, Henry H.; Wayenberg, Judith A.

2002-01-01

An important source of fresh water on Lopez, San Juan, Orcas, and Shaw Islands in San Juan County off the northwestern coast of Washington is glacial-deposit and bedrock aquifers. Two methods were used to estimate recharge from precipitation to the water tables on the islands. A daily near-surface water-balance method, the Deep Percolation Model (DPM), was used to simulate water budgets for the period October 1, 1996, through September 30, 1998 (water years 1997-98) for six small drainage basins?three on Lopez Island and one each on San Juan, Orcas, and Shaw Islands. The calibrated soil and subsoil parameters from the DPM for each small basin were then used in island-wide applications of the DPM where the direct runoff component (which is not available on an island-wide basis) was simulated, rather than input, and calibration was not required. A spatial distribution of annual recharge was simulated for each island, with island averages of: Lopez Island, 2.49 inches per year; San Juan Island, 1.99 inches per year; Orcas Island, 1.46 inches per year; and Shaw Island, 1.44 inches per year.A chloride mass-balance method that requires measurements of atmospheric chloride deposition, precipitation, streamflow, and chloride concentrations in ground water was used to estimate recharge to the glacial-deposit aquifers of Lopez Island. Only average recharge could be estimated using this method rather than area-specific recharge. Average recharge for Lopez Island estimated by this method was only 0.63 inch per year. The range of chloride concentrations in ground-water samples from selected wells indicates that the average recharge in areas of glacial deposits is between 0.29 and 1.95 inches per year. Recharge simulated using the DPM for two drainage basins on Lopez Island overlain by glacial deposits are 2.76 and 2.64 inches per year. Sources of chloride in ground water other than from the atmosphere would cause the recharge estimated by the chloride mass-balance method to be less than the actual recharge, therefore these estimates may represent lower limits which are, at least, consistent with the higher simulated recharge from the DPM. The average island-wide recharge is most closely related to the amount of area overlain by glacial deposits. Thus, even though Lopez Island receives the least precipitation, it has the most recharge per square mile because it proportionally has the largest area overlain by glacial deposits. Recharge simulated by the DPM for areas of shallow to outcropping bedrock generally were less than 1.5 inches per year, but recharge simulated in areas of glacial deposits ranged from less than 0.5 to 3 inches per year, with recharge as high as 9 inches per year in some small areas.

Cost of hospital management of Clostridium difficile infection in United States-a meta-analysis and modelling study.

PubMed

Zhang, Shanshan; Palazuelos-Munoz, Sarah; Balsells, Evelyn M; Nair, Harish; Chit, Ayman; Kyaw, Moe H

2016-08-25

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is the leading cause of infectious nosocomial diarrhoea but the economic costs of CDI on healthcare systems in the US remain uncertain. We conducted a systematic search for published studies investigating the direct medical cost associated with CDI hospital management in the past 10 years (2005-2015) and included 42 studies to the final data analysis to estimate the financial impact of CDI in the US. We also conducted a meta-analysis of all costs using Monte Carlo simulation. The average cost for CDI case management and average CDI-attributable costs per case were $42,316 (90 % CI: $39,886, $44,765) and $21,448 (90 % CI: $21,152, $21,744) in 2015 US dollars. Hospital-onset CDI-attributable cost per case was $34,157 (90 % CI: $33,134, $35,180), which was 1.5 times the cost of community-onset CDI ($20,095 [90 % CI: $4991, $35,204]). The average and incremental length of stay (LOS) for CDI inpatient treatment were 11.1 (90 % CI: 8.7-13.6) and 9.7 (90 % CI: 9.6-9.8) days respectively. Total annual CDI-attributable cost in the US is estimated US$6.3 (Range: $1.9-$7.0) billion. Total annual CDI hospital management required nearly 2.4 million days of inpatient stay. This review indicates that CDI places a significant financial burden on the US healthcare system. This review adds strong evidence to aid policy-making on adequate resource allocation to CDI prevention and treatment in the US. Future studies should focus on recurrent CDI, CDI in long-term care facilities and persons with comorbidities and indirect cost from a societal perspective. Health-economic studies for CDI preventive intervention are needed.

Climate change impacts on lake thermal dynamics and ecosystem vulnerabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sahoo, G. B; Forrest, A. L; Schladow, S. G ;; Reuter, J. E; Coats, R.; Dettinger, Michael

2016-01-01

Using water column temperature records collected since 1968, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on thermal properties, stability intensity, length of stratification, and deep mixing dynamics of Lake Tahoe using a modified stability index (SI). This new SI is easier to produce and is a more informative measure of deep lake stability than commonly used stability indices. The annual average SI increased at 16.62 kg/m2/decade although the summer (May–October) average SI increased at a higher rate (25.42 kg/m2/decade) during the period 1968–2014. This resulted in the lengthening of the stratification season by approximately 24 d. We simulated the lake thermal structure over a future 100 yr period using a lake hydrodynamic model driven by statistically downscaled outputs of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) for two different green house gas emission scenarios (the A2 in which greenhouse-gas emissions increase rapidly throughout the 21st Century, and the B1 in which emissions slow and then level off by the late 21st Century). The results suggest a continuation and intensification of the already observed trends. The length of stratification duration and the annual average lake stability are projected to increase by 38 d and 12 d and 30.25 kg/m2/decade and 8.66 kg/m2/decade, respectively for GFDLA2 and GFDLB1, respectively during 2014–2098. The consequences of this change bear the hallmarks of climate change induced lake warming and possible exacerbation of existing water quality, quantity and ecosystem changes. The developed methodology could be extended and applied to other lakes as a tool to predict changes in stratification and mixing dynamics.

The sterile-male-release technique in Great Lakes sea lamprey management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Twohey, Michael B.; Heinrich, John W.; Seelye, James G.; Fredricks, Kim T.; Bergstedt, Roger A.; Kaye, Cheryl A.; Scholefield, Ron J.; McDonald, Rodney B.; Christie, Gavin C.

2003-01-01

The implementation of a sterile-male-release technique from 1991 through 1999 and evaluation of its effectiveness in the Great Lakes sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) management program is reviewed. Male sea lampreys were injected with the chemosterilant bisazir (P,P-bis(1-aziridinyl)-N-methylphosphinothioic amide) using a robotic device. Quality assurance testing indicated the device delivered a consistent and effective dose of bisazir. Viability of embryos in an untreated control group was 64% compared to 1% in a treatment group. A task force developed nine hypotheses to guide implementation and evaluation of the technique. An annual average of 26,000 male sea lampreys was harvested from as many as 17 Great Lakes tributaries for use in the technique. An annual average of 16,100 sterilized males was released into 33 tributaries of Lake Superior to achieve a theoretical 59% reduction in larval production during 1991 to 1996. The average number of sterile males released in the St. Marys River increased from 4,000 during 1991 to 1996 to 20,100 during 1997 to 1999. The theoretical reduc-stertion in reproduction when combined with trapping was 57% during 1991 to 1996 and 86% during 1997 to 1999. Evaluation studies demonstrated that sterilized males were competitive and reduced production of larvae in streams. Field studies and simulation models suggest reductions in reproduction will result in fewer recruits, but there is risk of periodic high recruitment events independent of sterile-male release. Strategies to reduce reproduction will be most reliable when low densities of reproducing females are achieved. Expansion of the technique is limited by access to additional males for sterilization. Sterile-male release and other alternative controls are important in delivering integrated pest management and in reducing reliance on pesticides.

Potential savings associated with drug substitution in Medicare Part D: the Translating Research into Action for Diabetes (TRIAD) study.

PubMed

Duru, O Kenrik; Ettner, Susan L; Turk, Norman; Mangione, Carol M; Brown, Arleen F; Fu, Jeffery; Simien, Leslie; Tseng, Chien-Wen

2014-01-01

Drug substitution is a promising approach to reducing medication costs. To calculate the potential savings in a Medicare Part D plan from generic or therapeutic substitution for commonly prescribed drugs. Cross-sectional, simulation analysis. Low-income subsidy (LIS) beneficiaries (n = 145,056) and non low-income subsidy (non-LIS) beneficiaries (n = 1,040,030) enrolled in a large, national Part D health insurer in 2007 and eligible for a possible substitution. Using administrative data from 2007, we identified claims filled for brand-name drugs for which a direct generic substitute was available. We also identified the 50 highest cost drugs separately for LIS and non-LIS beneficiaries, and reached consensus on which drugs had possible therapeutic substitutes (27 for LIS, 30 for non-LIS). For each possible substitution, we used average daily costs of the original and substitute drugs to calculate the potential out-of-pocket savings, health plan savings, and when applicable, savings for the government/LIS subsidy. Overall, 39 % of LIS beneficiaries and 51 % of non-LIS beneficiaries were eligible for a generic and/or therapeutic substitution. Generic substitutions resulted in an average annual savings of $160 in the case of LIS beneficiaries and $127 in the case of non-LIS beneficiaries. Therapeutic substitutions resulted in an average annual savings of $452 in the case of LIS beneficiaries and $389 in the case of non-LIS beneficiaries. Our findings indicate that drug substitution, particularly therapeutic substitution, could result in significant cost savings. There is a need for additional studies evaluating the acceptability of therapeutic substitution interventions within Medicare Part D.