Evaluation of CAESAR-Lisflood as a tool for modelling river channel change and floodplain sediment residence times.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feeney, Christopher; Smith, Hugh; Chiverrell, Richard; Hooke, Janet; Cooper, James

2017-04-01

Sediment residence time represents the duration of particle storage, from initial deposition to remobilisation, within reservoirs such as floodplains. Residence time influences rates of downstream redistribution of sediment and associated contaminants and is a useful indicator of landform stability and hence, preservation potential of alluvial archives of environmental change. River channel change controls residence times, reworking sediments via lateral migration, avulsion and incision through floodplain deposits. As reworking progresses, the floodplain age distribution is 'updated', reflecting the time since 'older' sediments were removed and replaced with 'younger' ones. The relationship between ages and the spatial extents they occupy can be used to estimate the average floodplain sediment residence times. While dating techniques, historic maps and remote sensing can reconstruct age distributions from historic reworking, modelling provides advantages, including: i) capturing detailed river channel changes and resulting floodplain ages over longer timescales and higher resolutions than from historic mapping, and ii) control over inputs to simulate hypothetical scenarios to investigate the effects of different environmental drivers on residence times. CAESAR-Lisflood is a landform evolution model capable of simulating variable channel width, divergent flow, and both braided and meandering planforms. However, the model's ability to accurately simulate channel changes requires evaluation if it is to be useful for quantitative evaluation of floodplain sediment residence times. This study aims to simulate recent historic river channel changes along ten 1 km reaches in northern England. Simulation periods were defined by available overlapping historic map and mean daily flow datasets, ranging 27-39 years. LiDAR-derived 2 m DEMs were modified to smooth out present-day channels and burn in historic channel locations. To reduce run times, DEMs were resampled to coarser resolutions based on the size of the channel and historic rate of lateral channel migration. Separate pre-defined coarse and finer channel bed and floodplain grain size distributions were used, respectively, in combination with constructed reach DEMs for model simulations. Calibration was performed by modifying selected parameters to obtain best fits between observed and modelled channel planforms. Initial simulations suggest the model can broadly reproduce observed planform change and is comparable in terms of channel sinuosities and the mean radius of curvature. As such, CAESAR-Lisflood may provide a useful tool for evaluating floodplain sediment residence times under environmental change scenarios.

How well do terrestrial biosphere models simulate coarse-scale runoff in the contiguous United States?

Treesearch

C.R. Schwalm; D.N. Huntzinger; R.B. Cook; Y. Wei; I.T. Baker; R.P. Neilson; B. Poulter; Peter Caldwell; G. Sun; H.Q. Tian; N. Zeng

2015-01-01

Significant changes in the water cycle are expected under current global environmental change. Robust assessment of present-day water cycle dynamics at continental to global scales is confounded by shortcomings in the observed record. Modeled assessments also yield conflicting results which are linked to differences in model structure and simulation protocol. Here we...

Delivering better power: the role of simulation in reducing the environmental impact of aircraft engines.

PubMed

Menzies, Kevin

2014-08-13

The growth in simulation capability over the past 20 years has led to remarkable changes in the design process for gas turbines. The availability of relatively cheap computational power coupled to improvements in numerical methods and physical modelling in simulation codes have enabled the development of aircraft propulsion systems that are more powerful and yet more efficient than ever before. However, the design challenges are correspondingly greater, especially to reduce environmental impact. The simulation requirements to achieve a reduced environmental impact are described along with the implications of continued growth in available computational power. It is concluded that achieving the environmental goals will demand large-scale multi-disciplinary simulations requiring significantly increased computational power, to enable optimization of the airframe and propulsion system over the entire operational envelope. However even with massive parallelization, the limits imposed by communications latency will constrain the time required to achieve a solution, and therefore the position of such large-scale calculations in the industrial design process. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Characterize older driver behavior for traffic simulation and vehicle emission model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-05-01

The use of traffic simulation models is becoming more widespread as a means of : assessing traffic, safety and environmental impacts as a result of infrastructure, control and : operational changes at disaggregate levels. It is imperative that these ...

Using HexSim to link demography and genetics in animal and plant simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Simulation models are essential for understanding the effects of land management practices and environmental drivers, including landscape change, shape population genetic structure and persistence probabilities. The emerging field of eco-evolutionary modeling is beginning to dev...

Examining Projected Changes in Weather & Air Quality Extremes Between 2000 & 2030 using Dynamical Downscaling

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change may alter regional weather extremes resulting in a range of environmental impacts including changes in air quality, water quality and availability, energy demands, agriculture, and ecology. Dynamical downscaling simulations were conducted with the Weather Research...

Environmental, Transient, Three-Dimensional, Hydrothermal, Mass Transport Code - FLESCOT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onishi, Yasuo; Bao, Jie; Glass, Kevin A.

The purpose of the project was to modify and apply the transient, three-dimensional FLESCOT code to be able to effectively simulate cesium behavior in Fukushima lakes/dam reservoirs, river mouths, and coastal areas. The ultimate objective of the FLESCOT simulation is to predict future changes of cesium accumulation in Fukushima area reservoirs and costal water. These evaluation results will assist ongoing and future environmental remediation activities and policies in a systematic and comprehensive manner.

Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on French forests biodiversity.

PubMed

Rizzetto, Simon; Belyazid, Salim; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Nicolas, Manuel; Alard, Didier; Corcket, Emmanuel; Gaudio, Noémie; Sverdrup, Harald; Probst, Anne

2016-06-01

A dynamic coupled biogeochemical-ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space-based ornithology: studying bird migration and environmental change in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James A.; Deppe, Jill L.

2008-10-01

Natural fluctuations in the availability of critical stopover sites coupled with anthropogenic destruction of wetlands, land-use change, and anticipated losses due to climate change present migratory birds with a formidable challenge. Space based technology in concert with bird migration modeling and geographical information analysis yields new opportunities to shed light on the distribution and movement of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. At the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we are creating ecological forecasting tools for science and application users to address the consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, drought or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration. We use an individual-based bird biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate and hydrologic data, and biological field observations to study migratory bird responses to environmental change in North America. Simulation allows us to study bird migration across multiple scales and can be linked to mechanistic processes describing the time and energy budget states of migrating birds. We illustrate our approach by simulating the spring migration of pectoral sandpipers from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska. Mean stopover length and trajectory patterns are consistent with field observations.

Space-Based Ornithology - Studying Bird Migration and Environmental Change in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James A.; Deppe, Jill L.

2008-01-01

Natural fluctuations in the availability of critical stopover sites coupled with anthropogenic destruction of wetlands, land-use change, and anticipated losses due to climate change present migratory birds with a formidable challenge. Space based technology in concert with bird migration modeling and geographical information analysis yields new opportunities to shed light on the distribution and movement of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. At the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we are creating ecological forecasting tools for science and application users to address the consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, drought or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration. We use an individual-based bird biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate and hydrologic data, and biological field observations to study migratory bird responses to environmental change in North America. Simulation allows us to study bird migration across multiple scales and can be linked to mechanistic processes describing the time and energy budget states of migrating birds. We illustrate our approach by simulating the spring migration of pectoral sandpipers from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska. Mean stopover length and trajectory patterns are consistent with field observations.

Effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, bathymetric change and typhoon tracks on storm flooding in the coastal areas of Shanghai.

PubMed

Wang, Jun; Yi, Si; Li, Mengya; Wang, Lei; Song, Chengcheng

2018-04-15

We compared the effects of three key environmental factors of coastal flooding: sea level rise (SLR), land subsidence (LS) and bathymetric change (BC) in the coastal areas of Shanghai. We use the hydrological simulation model MIKE 21 to simulate flood magnitudes under multiple scenarios created from combinations of the key environmental factors projected to year 2030 and 2050. Historical typhoons (TC9711, TC8114, TC0012, TC0205 and TC1109), which caused extremely high surges and considerable losses, were selected as reference tracks to generate potential typhoon events that would make landfalls in Shanghai (SHLD), in the north of Zhejiang (ZNLD) and moving northwards in the offshore area of Shanghai (MNS) under those scenarios. The model results provided assessment of impact of single and compound effects of the three factors (SLR, LS and BC) on coastal flooding in Shanghai for the next few decades. Model simulation showed that by the year 2030, the magnitude of storm flooding will increase due to the environmental changes defined by SLR, LS, and BC. Particularly, the compound scenario of the three factors will generate coastal floods that are 3.1, 2.7, and 1.9 times greater than the single factor change scenarios by, respectively, SLR, LS, and BC. Even more drastically, in 2050, the compound impact of the three factors would be 8.5, 7.5, and 23.4 times of the single factors. It indicates that the impact of environmental changes is not simple addition of the effects from individual factors, but rather multiple times greater of that when the projection time is longer. We also found for short-term scenarios, the bathymetry change is the most important factor for the changes in coastal flooding; and for long-term scenarios, sea level rise and land subsidence are the major factors that coastal flood prevention and management should address. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PROCESS SIMULATION TOOLS FOR POLLUTION PREVENTION: NEW METHODS REDUCE THE MAGNITUDE OF WASTE STREAMS

EPA Science Inventory

Growing environmental concerns have spurred considerable interest in pollution prevention. In most instances, pollution prevention involves introducing radical changes to the design of processes so that waste generation is minimized. Process simulators can be effective tools in a...

Intensification of hydrological drought due to human activity in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Dan; Zhang, Qi; Qiu, Jiaming; Bai, Peng; Liang, Kang; Li, Xianghu

2018-10-01

Hydrological extremes are changing under the impacts of environmental change, i.e., climate variation and human activity, which can substantially influence ecosystems and the living environment of humans in affected region. This study investigates the impacts of environmental change on hydrological drought in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in China based on hydrological modelling. Change points for streamflow into two major lakes and a reservoir in the study area were detected in the late 1980s using the Mann-Kendall test. Streamflow simulation by a water balance model was performed, and the resulting Kling-Gupta efficiency value was >0.90. Hydrological drought events were identified based on the simulated streamflow under different scenarios. The results show that the hydrological drought occurrence was increased by precipitation, whereas the drought peak value was increased by potential evapotranspiration. The impacts of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration on drought severity and duration varied in the study area. However, hydrological drought was intensified by the influence of human activity, which increased the severity, duration and peak value of droughts. The dominant factor for hydrological drought severity is precipitation, followed by potential evapotranspiration and human activity. The impacts of climate variation and human activity on drought severity are larger than on drought duration. In addition, environmental change is shown to have an "accumulation effect" on hydrological drought, demonstrating that the indirect impacts of environmental change on hydrological drought are much larger than the direct impacts on streamflow. This study improves our understanding of the responses of hydrological extremes to environmental change, which is useful for the management of water resources and the prediction of hydrological disasters. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Can Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) be used to reconstruct palaeo-climate and sea-level histories?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.

2011-12-01

Reconstruction of palaeo-environmental conditions over long time periods is notoriously difficult, especially where there are limited or no proxy records from which to extract data. Application of landscape evolution models (LEMs) for palaeo-environmental reconstruction involves hindcast modeling, in which simulation scenarios are configured with specific model variables and parameters chosen to reflect a specific hypothesis of environmental change. In this form of modeling, the environmental time series utilized are considered credible when modeled and observed landscape metrics converge. Herein we account for the uncertainties involved in evaluating the degree to which the model simulations and observations converge using Monte Carlo analysis of reduced complexity `metamodels'. The technique is applied to a case study focused on a specific set of gullies found on the southwest coast of the Isle of Wight, UK. A key factor controlling the Holocene evolution of these coastal gullies is the balance between rates of sea-cliff retreat (driven by sea-level rise) and headwards incision caused by knickpoint migration (driven by the rate of runoff). We simulate these processes using a version of the GOLEM model that has been modified to represent sea-cliff retreat. A Central Composite Design (CCD) sampling technique was employed, enabling the trajectories of gully response to different combinations of driving conditions to be modeled explicitly. In some of these simulations, where the range of bedrock erodibility (0.03 to 0.04 m0.2 a-1) and rate of sea-level change (0.005 to 0.0059 m a-1) is tightly constrained, modeled gully forms conform closely to those observed in reality, enabling a suite of climate and sea-level change scenarios which plausibly explain the Holocene evolution of the Isle of Wight gullies to be identified.

Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.

PubMed

Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François

2014-01-01

Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems.

The contrasting effects of short-term climate change on the early recruitment of tree species.

PubMed

Ibáñez, Inés; Katz, Daniel S W; Lee, Benjamin R

2017-07-01

Predictions of plant responses to climate change are frequently based on organisms' presence in warmer locations, which are then assumed to reflect future performance in cooler areas. However, as plant life stages may be affected differently by environmental changes, there is little empirical evidence that this approach provides reliable estimates of short-term responses to global warming. Under this premise, we analyzed 8 years of early recruitment data, seed production and seedling establishment and survival, collected for two tree species at two latitudes. We quantified recruitment to a wide range of environmental conditions, temperature, soil moisture and light, and simulated recruitment under two forecasted climatic scenarios. Annual demographic transitions were affected by the particular conditions taking place during their onset, but the effects of similar environmental shifts differed among the recruitment stages; seed production was higher in warmer years, while seedling establishment and survival peaked during cold years. Within a species, these effects also varied between latitudes; increasing temperatures at the southern location will have stronger detrimental effects on recruitment than similar changes at the northern locations. Our simulations illustrate that warmer temperatures may increase seed production, but they will have a negative effect on establishment and survival. When the three early recruitment processes were simultaneously considered, simulations showed little change in recruitment dynamics at the northern site and a slight decrease at the southern site. It is only when we considered these three stages that we were able to assess likely changes in early recruitment under the predicted conditions.

A facility for long-term Mars simulation experiments: the Mars Environmental Simulation Chamber (MESCH).

PubMed

Jensen, Lars Liengaard; Merrison, Jonathan; Hansen, Aviaja Anna; Mikkelsen, Karina Aarup; Kristoffersen, Tommy; Nørnberg, Per; Lomstein, Bente Aagaard; Finster, Kai

2008-06-01

We describe the design, construction, and pilot operation of a Mars simulation facility comprised of a cryogenic environmental chamber, an atmospheric gas analyzer, and a xenon/mercury discharge source for UV generation. The Mars Environmental Simulation Chamber (MESCH) consists of a double-walled cylindrical chamber. The double wall provides a cooling mantle through which liquid N(2) can be circulated. A load-lock system that consists of a small pressure-exchange chamber, which can be evacuated, allows for the exchange of samples without changing the chamber environment. Fitted within the MESCH is a carousel, which holds up to 10 steel sample tubes. Rotation of the carousel is controlled by an external motor. Each sample in the carousel can be placed at any desired position. Environmental data, such as temperature, pressure, and UV exposure time, are computer logged and used in automated feedback mechanisms, enabling a wide variety of experiments that include time series. Tests of the simulation facility have successfully demonstrated its ability to produce temperature cycles and maintain low temperature (down to -140 degrees C), low atmospheric pressure (5-10 mbar), and a gas composition like that of Mars during long-term experiments.

A Facility for Long-Term Mars Simulation Experiments: The Mars Environmental Simulation Chamber (MESCH)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Lars Liengaard; Merrison, Jonathan; Hansen, Aviaja Anna; Mikkelsen, Karina Aarup; Kristoffersen, Tommy; Nørnberg, Per; Lomstein, Bente Aagaard; Finster, Kai

2008-06-01

We describe the design, construction, and pilot operation of a Mars simulation facility comprised of a cryogenic environmental chamber, an atmospheric gas analyzer, and a xenon/mercury discharge source for UV generation. The Mars Environmental Simulation Chamber (MESCH) consists of a double-walled cylindrical chamber. The double wall provides a cooling mantle through which liquid N2 can be circulated. A load-lock system that consists of a small pressure-exchange chamber, which can be evacuated, allows for the exchange of samples without changing the chamber environment. Fitted within the MESCH is a carousel, which holds up to 10 steel sample tubes. Rotation of the carousel is controlled by an external motor. Each sample in the carousel can be placed at any desired position. Environmental data, such as temperature, pressure, and UV exposure time, are computer logged and used in automated feedback mechanisms, enabling a wide variety of experiments that include time series. Tests of the simulation facility have successfully demonstrated its ability to produce temperature cycles and maintain low temperature (down to -140°C), low atmospheric pressure (5 10 mbar), and a gas composition like that of Mars during long-term experiments.

Use of state-and-transition simulation modeling in National Forest planning in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A

Treesearch

Ayn J. Shlisky; Don Vandendriesche

2012-01-01

Effective national forest planning depends on scientifically sound analyses of land management alternatives relative to desired future conditions and environmental effects. The USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Region is currently using state-and-transition simulation models (STMs) to simulate changes in forest composition and structure for the revisions of five...

Environmental change makes robust ecological networks fragile

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strona, Giovanni; Lafferty, Kevin D.

2016-01-01

Complex ecological networks appear robust to primary extinctions, possibly due to consumers’ tendency to specialize on dependable (available and persistent) resources. However, modifications to the conditions under which the network has evolved might alter resource dependability. Here, we ask whether adaptation to historical conditions can increase community robustness, and whether such robustness can protect communities from collapse when conditions change. Using artificial life simulations, we first evolved digital consumer-resource networks that we subsequently subjected to rapid environmental change. We then investigated how empirical host–parasite networks would respond to historical, random and expected extinction sequences. In both the cases, networks were far more robust to historical conditions than new ones, suggesting that new environmental challenges, as expected under global change, might collapse otherwise robust natural ecosystems.

CO line ratios in molecular clouds: the impact of environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peñaloza, Camilo H.; Clark, Paul C.; Glover, Simon C. O.; Klessen, Ralf S.

2018-04-01

Line emission is strongly dependent on the local environmental conditions in which the emitting tracers reside. In this work, we focus on modelling the CO emission from simulated giant molecular clouds (GMCs), and study the variations in the resulting line ratios arising from the emission from the J = 1-0, J = 2-1, and J = 3-2 transitions. We perform a set of smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations with time-dependent chemistry, in which environmental conditions - including total cloud mass, density, size, velocity dispersion, metallicity, interstellar radiation field (ISRF), and the cosmic ray ionization rate (CRIR) - were systematically varied. The simulations were then post-processed using radiative transfer to produce synthetic emission maps in the three transitions quoted above. We find that the cloud-averaged values of the line ratios can vary by up to ±0.3 dex, triggered by changes in the environmental conditions. Changes in the ISRF and/or in the CRIR have the largest impact on line ratios since they directly affect the abundance, temperature, and distribution of CO-rich gas within the clouds. We show that the standard methods used to convert CO emission to H2 column density can underestimate the total H2 molecular gas in GMCs by factors of 2 or 3, depending on the environmental conditions in the clouds.

How long can fisheries management delay action in response to ecosystem and climate change?

PubMed

Brown, Christopher J; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Possingham, Hugh P; Richardson, Anthony J

2012-01-01

Sustainable management of fisheries is often compromised by management delaying implementation of regulations that reduce harvest, in order to maintain higher catches in the short-term. Decreases or increases in fish population growth rate driven by environmental change, including ecosystem and climate change, affect the harvest that can be taken sustainably. If not acted on rapidly, environmental change could result in unsustainable fishing or missed opportunity for higher catches. Using simulation models of harvested fish populations influenced by environmental change, we explore how long fisheries managers can afford to wait before changing harvest regulations in response to changes in population growth. If environmental change causes population declines, delays greater than five years increase the probability of population collapse. Species with fast and highly variable population growth rates are more susceptible to collapse under delays and should be a priority for revised management where delays occur. Generally, the long-term cost of delay, in terms of lost fishing opportunity, exceeds the short-term benefits of overfishing. Lowering harvest limits and monitoring for environmental change can alleviate the impact of delays; however, these measures may be more costly than reducing delays. We recommend that management systems that allow rapid responses to population growth changes be enacted for fisheries management to adapt to ecosystem and climate change.

Behavioural response in subterranean and semi-aquatic invertebrates following experimental simulation of pre-seismic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conlan, Hilary; Grant, Rachel

2013-04-01

When tectonic stresses build up in the Earth's crust, highly mobile electronic charge carriers are activated which cause a range of follow-on reactions when they arrive at the Earth's surface, primarily air ionization and at the rock-water interface oxidation of water to hydrogen peroxide. Anecdotal reports of many earthworms appearing at the ground surface and behavioural changes in toads before earthquakes suggests that these animals may be reacting to environmental changes. This paper reports the results of experimental work, with subterranean and semi-aquatic invertebrates, simulating these pre-earthquake changes.

Integration of environmental simulation models with satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies: case studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steyaert, Louis T.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Reed, Bradley C.

1993-01-01

Environmental modelers are testing and evaluating a prototype land cover characteristics database for the conterminous United States developed by the EROS Data Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies. This database was developed from multi temporal, 1-kilometer advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for 1990 and various ancillary data sets such as elevation, ecological regions, and selected climatic normals. Several case studies using this database were analyzed to illustrate the integration of satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies with land-atmosphere interactions models at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The case studies are representative of contemporary environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management, and environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management and environmental risk assessment. The case studies feature land surface parameterizations for atmospheric mesoscale and global climate models; biogenic-hydrocarbons emissions models; distributed parameter watershed and other hydrological models; and various ecological models such as ecosystem, dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, ecotone variability, and equilibrium vegetation models. The case studies demonstrate the important of multi temporal AVHRR data to develop to develop and maintain a flexible, near-realtime land cover characteristics database. Moreover, such a flexible database is needed to derive various vegetation classification schemes, to aggregate data for nested models, to develop remote sensing algorithms, and to provide data on dynamic landscape characteristics. The case studies illustrate how such a database supports research on spatial heterogeneity, land use, sensitivity analysis, and scaling issues involving regional extrapolations and parameterizations of dynamic land processes within simulation models.

The genetic variance but not the genetic covariance of life-history traits changes towards the north in a time-constrained insect.

PubMed

Sniegula, Szymon; Golab, Maria J; Drobniak, Szymon M; Johansson, Frank

2018-06-01

Seasonal time constraints are usually stronger at higher than lower latitudes and can exert strong selection on life-history traits and the correlations among these traits. To predict the response of life-history traits to environmental change along a latitudinal gradient, information must be obtained about genetic variance in traits and also genetic correlation between traits, that is the genetic variance-covariance matrix, G. Here, we estimated G for key life-history traits in an obligate univoltine damselfly that faces seasonal time constraints. We exposed populations to simulated native temperatures and photoperiods and common garden environmental conditions in a laboratory set-up. Despite differences in genetic variance in these traits between populations (lower variance at northern latitudes), there was no evidence for latitude-specific covariance of the life-history traits. At simulated native conditions, all populations showed strong genetic and phenotypic correlations between traits that shaped growth and development. The variance-covariance matrix changed considerably when populations were exposed to common garden conditions compared with the simulated natural conditions, showing the importance of environmentally induced changes in multivariate genetic structure. Our results highlight the importance of estimating variance-covariance matrixes in environments that mimic selection pressures and not only trait variances or mean trait values in common garden conditions for understanding the trait evolution across populations and environments. © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Exploring coral reef responses to millennial-scale climatic forcings: insights from the 1-D numerical tool pyReef-Core v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salles, Tristan; Pall, Jodie; Webster, Jody M.; Dechnik, Belinda

2018-06-01

Assemblages of corals characterise specific reef biozones and the environmental conditions that change spatially across a reef and with depth. Drill cores through fossil reefs record the time and depth distribution of assemblages, which captures a partial history of the vertical growth response of reefs to changing palaeoenvironmental conditions. The effects of environmental factors on reef growth are well understood on ecological timescales but are poorly constrained at centennial to geological timescales. pyReef-Core is a stratigraphic forward model designed to solve the problem of unobservable environmental processes controlling vertical reef development by simulating the physical, biological and sedimentological processes that determine vertical assemblage changes in drill cores. It models the stratigraphic development of coral reefs at centennial to millennial timescales under environmental forcing conditions including accommodation (relative sea-level upward growth), oceanic variability (flow speed, nutrients, pH and temperature), sediment input and tectonics. It also simulates competitive coral assemblage interactions using the generalised Lotka-Volterra system of equations (GLVEs) and can be used to infer the influence of environmental conditions on the zonation and vertical accretion and stratigraphic succession of coral assemblages over decadal timescales and greater. The tool can quantitatively test carbonate platform development under the influence of ecological and environmental processes and efficiently interpret vertical growth and karstification patterns observed in drill cores. We provide two realistic case studies illustrating the basic capabilities of the model and use it to reconstruct (1) the Holocene history (from 8500 years to present) of coral community responses to environmental changes and (2) the evolution of an idealised coral reef core since the last interglacial (from 140 000 years to present) under the influence of sea-level change, subsidence and karstification. We find that the model reproduces the details of the formation of existing coral reef stratigraphic sequences both in terms of assemblages succession, accretion rates and depositional thicknesses. It can be applied to estimate the impact of changing environmental conditions on growth rates and patterns under many different settings and initial conditions.

Developing Best Practices for Detecting Change at Marine Renewable Energy Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linder, H. L.; Horne, J. K.

2016-02-01

In compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), an evaluation of environmental effects is mandatory for obtaining permits for any Marine Renewable Energy (MRE) project in the US. Evaluation includes an assessment of baseline conditions and on-going monitoring during operation to determine if biological conditions change relative to the baseline. Currently, there are no best practices for the analysis of MRE monitoring data. We have developed an approach to evaluate and recommend analytic models used to characterize and detect change in biological monitoring data. The approach includes six steps: review current MRE monitoring practices, identify candidate models to analyze data, fit models to a baseline dataset, develop simulated scenarios of change, evaluate model fit to simulated data, and produce recommendations on the choice of analytic model for monitoring data. An empirical data set from a proposed tidal turbine site at Admiralty Inlet, Puget Sound, Washington was used to conduct the model evaluation. Candidate models that were evaluated included: linear regression, time series, and nonparametric models. Model fit diagnostics Root-Mean-Square-Error and Mean-Absolute-Scaled-Error were used to measure accuracy of predicted values from each model. A power analysis was used to evaluate the ability of each model to measure and detect change from baseline conditions. As many of these models have yet to be applied in MRE monitoring studies, results of this evaluation will generate comprehensive guidelines on choice of model to detect change in environmental monitoring data from MRE sites. The creation of standardized guidelines for model selection enables accurate comparison of change between life stages of a MRE project, within life stages to meet real time regulatory requirements, and comparison of environmental changes among MRE sites.

Environmental change makes robust ecological networks fragile

PubMed Central

Strona, Giovanni; Lafferty, Kevin D.

2016-01-01

Complex ecological networks appear robust to primary extinctions, possibly due to consumers' tendency to specialize on dependable (available and persistent) resources. However, modifications to the conditions under which the network has evolved might alter resource dependability. Here, we ask whether adaptation to historical conditions can increase community robustness, and whether such robustness can protect communities from collapse when conditions change. Using artificial life simulations, we first evolved digital consumer-resource networks that we subsequently subjected to rapid environmental change. We then investigated how empirical host–parasite networks would respond to historical, random and expected extinction sequences. In both the cases, networks were far more robust to historical conditions than new ones, suggesting that new environmental challenges, as expected under global change, might collapse otherwise robust natural ecosystems. PMID:27511722

Space-based Ornithology-Studying Bird Migration and Environmental Change in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James; Deppe, Jill

2008-01-01

Natural fluctuations in the availability of critical stopover sites coupled with anthropogenic destruction of wetlands, land-use change, and anticipated losses due to climate change present migratory birds with a formidable challenge. We have developed an individual-based, spatially explicit bird migration model that simulates the migration routes, timing and energy budgets of individual birds under dynamic weather and land surface conditions. Our model incorporates biophysical constraints, individual bird energy status, bird behavior, and flight aerodynamics. We model the speed, direction, and timing of individual birds moving through a user specified Lagrangian grid. The model incorporates environmental properties including wind speed and direction, topography, dynamic hydrologic properties of the landscape, and environmental suitability. The model is driven by important variables estimated from satellite observations of the land surface, by data assimilation products from weather and climate models, and biological field data. We illustrate the use of the model to study the impact of both short- and long-term environmental variatios, e.g. climate, drought, anthropogenic, on migration timing (phenology), spatial pattern, and fitness (survival and reproductive success). We present several theoretical simulations of the spring migration of Pectoral Sandpiper (Calidris melanotos) in North America with emphasis on the Central flyway from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.

Addressing multi-use issues in sustainable forest management with signal-transfer modeling

Treesearch

Robert J. Luxmoore; William W. Hargrove; M. Lynn Tharp; W. Mac Post; Michael W. Berry; Karen S. Minser; Wendell P. Cropper; Dale W. Johnson; Boris Zeide; Ralph L. Amateis; Harold E. Burkhart; V. Clark Baldwin; Kelly D. Peterson

2002-01-01

Management decisions concerning impacts of projected changes in environmental and social conditions on multi-use forest products and services, such as productivity, water supply or carbon sequestration, may be facilitated with signal-transfer modeling. This simulation method utilizes a hierarchy of simulators in which the integrated responses (signals) from smaller-...

Community as client: environmental issues in the real world. A SimCity computer simulation.

PubMed

Bareford, C G

2001-01-01

The ability to think critically has become a crucial part of professional practice and education. SimCity, a popular computer simulation game, provides an opportunity to practice community assessment and interventions using a systems approach. SimCity is an interactive computer simulation game in which the player takes an active part in community planning. SimCity is supported on either a Windows 95/98 or a Macintosh platform and is available on CD-ROM at retail stores or at www.simcity.com. Students complete a tutorial and then apply a selected scenario in SimCity. Scenarios consist of hypothetical communities that have varying types and degrees of environmental problems, e.g., traffic, crime, nuclear meltdown, flooding, fire, and earthquakes. In problem solving with the simulated scenarios, students (a) identify systems and subsystems within the community that are critical factors impacting the environmental health of the community, (b) create changes in the systems and subsystems in an effort to solve the environmental health problem, and (c) evaluate the effectiveness of interventions based on the game score, demographic and fiscal data, and amount of community support. Because the consequences of planned intervention are part of the simulation, nursing students are able to develop critical-thinking skills. The simulation provides essential content in community planning in an interesting and interactive format.

Potential effects of climate change on ground water in Lansing, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Croley, T.E.; Luukkonen, C.L.

2003-01-01

Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri-County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.

Forecasts of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) off Chile under the A2 IPCC climate change scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Claudio; Yáñez, Eleuterio; Barbieri, María Angela; Bernal, Claudio; Aranis, Antonio

2015-05-01

Recent studies have demonstrated the effects of climate change on both oceanographic conditions and the relative abundance and distribution of fisheries resources. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) fisheries using predictions of changes from global models (according to the NCAR model and IPCC emissions scenario A2), bioclimate envelope models and satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from high-resolution regional models for the simulation period 2015-2065. Predictions of SST from global climate models were regionalised using the Delta statistical downscaling technique. The results show an SST trend of 0.0196 °C per year in the study area, equivalent to 0.98 °C for the simulation horizon and for a high CO2 emission scenario (A2). The bioclimate envelope models were developed using historical (2001-2011) monthly environmental and fisheries data. These data included the local relative abundance index of fish catch per unit effort (CPUE), corresponding to the total catch (kg) by 1000 hooks in a 1° latitude × 1° longitude fishing grid for swordfish and to the total catch (ton) by hold capacity (100 m3) in a 10‧ latitude × 10‧ longitude grid for common sardine. The environmental data included temporal (month), spatial (latitude) and thermal conditions (SST). In the first step of the bioclimate modelling performed in this study, generalised additive models (GAMs) were used as an exploratory tool to identify the functional relationships between the environmental variables and CPUE. These relationships were then parameterised using general linear models (GLMs) to provide a robust forecasting tool. With this modelling approach, environmental variables explained 58.7% of the variation in the CPUE of swordfish and 60.6% of the variation in the CPUE of common sardine in the final GLMs. Using IDRISI GIS, these GLMs simulated monthly changes in the relative abundance and distribution of the studied species forced by changes in the regionalised SST projected by the NCAR model under the A2 emission scenario. The simulations predicted a slight decline of 6% (17 kg/1000 hooks) and 7% (3.8 ton/100 m3) for swordfish and common sardine, respectively, in the spatial mean of the potential relative abundance (CPUE) by 2065.

A Regional-Scale Evaluation on Environmental Stability Conditions for Convective Rain under Climate Change from Super-High-Resolution GCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemi, T.; Nomura, S.; Oku, Y.; Ishikawa, H.

2011-12-01

Understanding and forecasting of convective rain due to intense thunderstorms, which develop under conditions both with and without significant synoptic-scale and/or mesoscale forcings, are critical in dealing with disaster prevention/mitigation and developing urban planning appropriate for disaster management. Thunderstorms rapidly develop even during the daytimes of fair weather conditions without any external forcings, and sometimes become strong enough to induce local-scale meteorological disasters such as torrential rain, flush flooding, high winds, and tornadoes/gusts. With the growing interests in climate change, future changes in the behavior of such convectively generated extreme events have gained scientific and societal interests. This study conducted the regional-scale evaluations on the environmental stability conditions for convective rain that develops under synoptically undisturbed, summertime conditions by using the outputs of super-high-resolution AGCM simulations, at a 20-km resolution, for the present, the near-future, and the future climates under global warming with IPCC A1B emission scenario. The GCM, MRI-AGCM3.2S, was developed by Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency under the KAKUSHIN program funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. The climate simulation outputs that were used in this study corresponded to three 25-year periods: 1980-2004 for the present climate; 2020-2044 for the near-future climate; and 2075-2099 for the future climate. The Kanto Plain that includes the Tokyo metropolitan area was chosen as the study area, since the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the largest metropolises in the world and is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Therefore, one of the purposes of this study was to examine how regional-scale evaluations are performed from the super-high-resolution GCM outputs. After verifying the usefulness of the GCM present-climate outputs with observations and operational mesoscale analyses, we examined, as another purpose of this study, the future changes in the environmental stability for convective rain. To diagnose the environmental conditions, some of the commonly used stability parameters and indices were examined. In the future climates, temperature lapse rate decreased in the lower troposphere, while water vapor mixing ratio increased throughout the deep troposphere. The changes in the temperature and moisture profiles resulted in the increase in both precipitable water vapor and convective available potential energy. These projected changes will be enhanced with the future period. Furthermore, the statistical analyses for the differences of the stability parameters between no-rain and rain days under the synoptically undisturbed condition in each simulated climate period indicated that the environmental conditions in terms of the stability parameters that distinguish no-rain and rain events are basically unchanged between the present and the future climates. This result suggests that the environmental characteristics favorable for afternoon rain events in the synoptically undisturbed environments will not change under global warming.

Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects of nonmetallic materials, second phase

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

Changes in the functional properties of a number of nonmetallic materials were evaluated experimentally as a function of simulated space environments and to use such data to develop models for accelerated test methods useful for predicting such behavioral changes. The effects of changed particle irradiations on candidate space materials are evaluated.

Computer modeling describes gravity-related adaptation in cell cultures.

PubMed

Alexandrov, Ludmil B; Alexandrova, Stoyana; Usheva, Anny

2009-12-16

Questions about the changes of biological systems in response to hostile environmental factors are important but not easy to answer. Often, the traditional description with differential equations is difficult due to the overwhelming complexity of the living systems. Another way to describe complex systems is by simulating them with phenomenological models such as the well-known evolutionary agent-based model (EABM). Here we developed an EABM to simulate cell colonies as a multi-agent system that adapts to hyper-gravity in starvation conditions. In the model, the cell's heritable characteristics are generated and transferred randomly to offspring cells. After a qualitative validation of the model at normal gravity, we simulate cellular growth in hyper-gravity conditions. The obtained data are consistent with previously confirmed theoretical and experimental findings for bacterial behavior in environmental changes, including the experimental data from the microgravity Atlantis and the Hypergravity 3000 experiments. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to utilize an EABM with realistic qualitative description to examine the effects of hypergravity and starvation on complex cellular entities.

Sensitivity of alpine watersheds to global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zierl, B.; Bugmann, H.

2003-04-01

Mountains provide society with a wide range of goods and services, so-called mountain ecosystem services. Besides many others, these services include the most precious element for life on earth: fresh water. Global change imposes significant environmental pressure on mountain watersheds. Climate change is predicted to modify water availability as well as shift its seasonality. In fact, the continued capacity of mountain regions to provide fresh water to society is threatened by the impact of environmental and social changes. We use RHESSys (Regional HydroEcological Simulation System) to analyse the impact of climate as well as land use change (e.g. afforestation or deforestation) on hydrological processes in mountain catchments using sophisticated climate and land use scenarios. RHESSys combines distributed flow modelling based on TOPMODEL with an ecophysiological canopy model based on BIOME-BGC and a climate interpolation scheme based on MTCLIM. It is a spatially distributed daily time step model designed to solve the coupled cycles of water, carbon, and nitrogen in mountain catchments. The model is applied to various mountain catchments in the alpine area. Dynamic hydrological and ecological properties such as river discharge, seasonality of discharge, peak flows, snow cover processes, soil moisture, and the feedback of a changing biosphere on hydrology are simulated under current as well as under changed environmental conditions. Results of these studies will be presented and discussed. This project is part of an over overarching EU-project called ATEAM (acronym for Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling) assessing the vulnerability of European ecosystem services.

Sandia’s Current Energy Conversion module for the Flexible-Mesh Delft3D flow solver v. 1.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chartand, Chris; Jagers, Bert

The DOE has funded Sandia National Labs (SNL) to develop an open-source modeling tool to guide the design and layout of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) arrays to maximize power production while minimizing environmental effects. This modeling framework simulates flows through and around a MHK arrays while quantifying environmental responses. As an augmented version of the Dutch company, Deltares’s, environmental hydrodynamics code, Delft3D, SNL-Delft3D-CEC-FM includes a new module that simulates energy conversion (momentum withdrawal) by MHK current energy conversion devices with commensurate changes in the turbulent kinetic energy and its dissipation rate. SNL-Delft3D-CEC-FM modified the Delft3D flexible mesh flow solver, DFlowFM.

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China.

PubMed

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-11-09

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution-severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

PubMed Central

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-01-01

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems. PMID:26569270

Tropical forests and global change: filling knowledge gaps.

PubMed

Zuidema, Pieter A; Baker, Patrick J; Groenendijk, Peter; Schippers, Peter; van der Sleen, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Sterck, Frank

2013-08-01

Tropical forests will experience major changes in environmental conditions this century. Understanding their responses to such changes is crucial to predicting global carbon cycling. Important knowledge gaps exist: the causes of recent changes in tropical forest dynamics remain unclear and the responses of entire tropical trees to environmental changes are poorly understood. In this Opinion article, we argue that filling these knowledge gaps requires a new research strategy, one that focuses on trees instead of leaves or communities, on long-term instead of short-term changes, and on understanding mechanisms instead of documenting changes. We propose the use of tree-ring analyses, stable-isotope analyses, manipulative field experiments, and well-validated simulation models to improve predictions of forest responses to global change. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the spread of changes in marine low cloud cover in climate model simulations of the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; Klein, Stephen A.; Caldwell, Peter M.

2014-05-01

In 36 climate change simulations associated with phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), changes in marine low cloud cover (LCC) exhibit a large spread, and may be either positive or negative. Here we develop a heuristic model to understand the source of the spread. The model's premise is that simulated LCC changes can be interpreted as a linear combination of contributions from factors shaping the clouds' large-scale environment. We focus primarily on two factors—the strength of the inversion capping the atmospheric boundary layer (measured by the estimated inversion strength, EIS) and sea surface temperature (SST). For a given global model, the respective contributions of EIS and SST are computed. This is done by multiplying (1) the current-climate's sensitivity of LCC to EIS or SST variations, by (2) the climate-change signal in EIS or SST. The remaining LCC changes are then attributed to changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, and other environmental factors. The heuristic model is remarkably skillful. Its SST term dominates, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the intermodel variance of LCC changes in CMIP3 models, and about half in CMIP5 models. Of the two factors governing the SST term (the SST increase and the sensitivity of LCC to SST perturbations), the SST sensitivity drives the spread in the SST term and hence the spread in the overall LCC changes. This sensitivity varies a great deal from model to model and is strongly linked to the types of cloud and boundary layer parameterizations used in the models. EIS and SST sensitivities are also estimated using observational cloud and meteorological data. The observed sensitivities are generally consistent with the majority of models as well as expectations from prior research. Based on the observed sensitivities and the relative magnitudes of simulated EIS and SST changes (which we argue are also physically reasonable), the heuristic model predicts LCC will decrease over the 21st-century. However, to place a strong constraint, for example on the magnitude of the LCC decrease, will require longer observational records and a careful assessment of other environmental factors producing LCC changes. Meanwhile, addressing biases in simulated EIS and SST sensitivities will clearly be an important step towards reducing intermodel spread in simulated LCC changes.

Simulating stand climate, phenology, and photosynthesis of a forest stand with a process-based growth model.

PubMed

Rötzer, Thomas; Leuchner, Michael; Nunn, Angela J

2010-07-01

In the face of climate change and accompanying risks, forest management in Europe is becoming increasingly important. Model simulations can help to understand the reactions and feedbacks of a changing environment on tree growth. In order to simulate forest growth based on future climate change scenarios, we tested the basic processes underlying the growth model BALANCE, simulating stand climate (air temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and precipitation), tree phenology, and photosynthesis. A mixed stand of 53- to 60-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) in Southern Germany was used as a reference. The results show that BALANCE is able to realistically simulate air temperature gradients in a forest stand using air temperature measurements above the canopy and PAR regimes at different heights for single trees inside the canopy. Interception as a central variable for water balance of a forest stand was also estimated. Tree phenology, i.e. bud burst and leaf coloring, could be reproduced convincingly. Simulated photosynthesis rates were in accordance with measured values for beech both in the sun and the shade crown. For spruce, however, some discrepancies in the rates were obvious, probably due to changed environmental conditions after bud break. Overall, BALANCE has shown to respond to scenario simulations of a changing environment (e.g., climate change, change of forest stand structure).

LPJ-GUESS Simulated Western North America Mid-latitude Vegetation Changes for 15-10 ka Using the CCSM3 TraCE Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2017-12-01

The period from 15-10 ka was a time of rapid vegetation changes in North America. Continental ice sheets in northern North America were receding, exposing new habitat for vegetation, and regions distant from the ice sheets experienced equally large environmental changes. Northern hemisphere temperatures during this period were increasing, promoting transitions from cold-adapted to temperate plant taxa at mid-latitudes. Long, transient paleovegetation simulations can provide important information on vegetation responses to climate changes, including both the spatial dynamics and rates of species distribution changes over time. Paleovegetation simulations also can fill the spatial and temporal gaps in observed paleovegetation records (e.g., pollen data from lake sediments), allowing us to test hypotheses about past vegetation changes (e.g., the location of past refugia). We used the CCSM3 TraCE transient climate simulation as input for LPJ-GUESS, a general ecosystem model, to simulate vegetation changes from 15-10 ka for parts of western North America at mid-latitudes ( 35-55° N). For these simulations, LPJ-GUESS was parameterized to simulate key tree taxa for western North America (e.g., Pseudotsuga, Tsuga, Quercus, etc.). The CCSM3 TraCE transient climate simulation data were regridded onto a 10-minute grid of the study area. We analyzed the simulated spatial and temporal dynamics of these taxa and compared the simulated changes with observed paleovegetation changes recorded in pollen and plant macrofossil data (e.g., data from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database). In general, the LPJ-GUESS simulations reproduce the general patterns of paleovegetation responses to climate change, although the timing of some simulated vegetation changes do not match the observed paleovegetation record. We describe the areas and time periods with the greatest data-model agreement and disagreement, and discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of the simulated climate and vegetation data. The magnitude and rate of the simulated past vegetation changes are compared with projected future vegetation changes for the region.

Simulated Response of Mercury and Nitrogen to Land Management and Land Use Change in a Large River Basin

EPA Science Inventory

Increases in nitrogen cascading from headwater systems to coastal waterways and bioaccumulation of mercury in aquatic ecosystems have become primary environmental concerns in recent decades. Studies assessing the effects of land use or climate change on water quality in large ri...

SNL-EFDC Simulations of Tidal Turbine-Related Changes to Hydrodynamics and Flushing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, J. D.; Johnson, E.; James, S. C.; Barco, J.; Jones, C.

2012-12-01

The marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) industry in the United States faces challenges associated with siting, permitting, construction, and operation of pilot- and full-scale facilities that must be addressed to accelerate environmentally sound deployment of these renewable energy technologies. Little is known about the potential effects of MHK device operation in coastal areas, estuaries, or rivers, or of the cumulative impacts of these devices on aquatic ecosystems. This lack of knowledge affects the actions of regulatory agencies, the opinions of stakeholder groups, and the commitment of energy project developers and investors. Two particularly important factors that can be used as a precursor for MHK-driven environmental changes in estuaries are the effect of decreased tidal range and flushing. For example, tidal-range changes could affect wetland systems that are only wetted under the highest of tides. Significant changes in tidal range could completely change the character of the wetlands through long-term drying. Changes to flushing must also be understood, especially when municipal wastewater and other pollutant sources are discharged into a bay. When MHK operation alters flow rates, decreased flushing of an embayment could yield increased residence times, decreased nutrient and contaminant dispersion, and even the possibility of algal blooms. Small changes to the flow could manifest as noticeable changes to sediment transport and water quality. This work provides example assessments of changes to the physical environment (i.e. currents, tidal ranges, water age, and e-folding time) potentially imposed by the operation of MHK turbine arrays in marine estuary environments using the modeling platform SNL-EFDC. Comparing model results with and without an MHK array facilitates an understanding of how an array of turbines might alter the environment. By using models to simulate water circulation, commensurate changes in water quality, benthic habitat quality, and aquatic food webs may be predicted. Scenarios may be developed that examine the limits of environmental changes that could occur in specific aquatic areas before unacceptable environmental degradation occurs. These simulations and scenario analyses can provide cost-effective planning tools for use before proceeding to detailed siting, engineering designs, and deployment of devices. The results of the models also imply that no single metric is suitable for determining the impact an array of MHK devices will have on a system and additional system-specific metrics should be included for a complete analysis. While it will be left to regulators and environmentalists to determine what degree of environmental changes are acceptable, or if an alternate design, array layout, or decreased power generation capacity is warranted, SNL-EFDC provides a tool developers and regulators can reference to determine the impact MHK devices will have on a site-by-site basis.

Modelling terrestrial nitrous oxide emissions and implications for climate feedback.

PubMed

Xu-Ri; Prentice, I Colin; Spahni, Renato; Niu, Hai Shan

2012-10-01

Ecosystem nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions respond to changes in climate and CO2 concentration as well as anthropogenic nitrogen (N) enhancements. Here, we aimed to quantify the responses of natural ecosystem N2O emissions to multiple environmental drivers using a process-based global vegetation model (DyN-LPJ). We checked that modelled annual N2O emissions from nonagricultural ecosystems could reproduce field measurements worldwide, and experimentally observed responses to step changes in environmental factors. We then simulated global N2O emissions throughout the 20th century and analysed the effects of environmental changes. The model reproduced well the global pattern of N2O emissions and the observed responses of N cycle components to changes in environmental factors. Simulated 20th century global decadal-average soil emissions were c. 8.2-9.5 Tg N yr(-1) (or 8.3-10.3 Tg N yr(-1) with N deposition). Warming and N deposition contributed 0.85±0.41 and 0.80±0.14 Tg N yr(-1), respectively, to an overall upward trend. Rising CO2 also contributed, in part, through a positive interaction with warming. The modelled temperature dependence of N2O emission (c. 1 Tg N yr(-1) K(-1)) implies a positive climate feedback which, over the lifetime of N2O (114 yr), could become as important as the climate-carbon cycle feedback caused by soil CO2 release. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

Predicting effects of environmental change on river inflows to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Estuarine river watersheds provide valued ecosystem services to their surrounding communities including drinking water, fish habitat, and regulation of estuarine water quality. However, the provisioning of these services can be affected by changes in the quantity and quality of river water, such as those caused by altered landscapes or shifting temperatures or precipitation. We used the ecohydrology model, VELMA, in the Trask River watershed to simulate the effects of environmental change scenarios on estuarine river inputs to Tillamook Bay (OR) estuary. The Trask River watershed is 453 km2 and contains extensive agriculture, silviculture, urban, and wetland areas. VELMA was parameterized using existing spatial datasets of elevation, soil type, land use, air temperature, precipitation, river flow, and water quality. Simulated land use change scenarios included alterations in the distribution of the nitrogen-fixing tree species Alnus rubra, and comparisons of varying timber harvest plans. Scenarios involving spatial and temporal shifts in air temperature and precipitation trends were also simulated. Our research demonstrates the utility of ecohydrology models such as VELMA to aid in watershed management decision-making. Model outputs of river water flow, temperature, and nutrient concentrations can be used to predict effects on drinking water quality, salmonid populations, and estuarine water quality. This modeling effort is part of a larger framework of

The Impacts of Various Environments Factors and Adaptive Management Strategies on Food Crops in the 21st Century Based on a Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, A. K.; Lin, T. S.; Lawrence, P.; Kheshgi, H. S.

2017-12-01

Environmental factors - characterized by increasing levels of CO2, and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns - present potential risks to global food supply. To date, understanding of environmental factors' effects on crop production remains uncertain due to (1) uncertainties in projected trends of these factors and their spatial and temporal variability; (2) uncertainties in the physiological, genetic and molecular basis of crop adaptation to adaptive management practices (e.g. change in planting time, irrigation and N fertilization etc.) and (3) uncertainties in current land surface models to estimate the response of crop production to changes in environmental factors and management strategies. In this study we apply a process-based land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment model (ISAM), to assess the impact of various environmental factors and management strategies on the production of row crops (corn, soybean and wheat) at regional and global scales. Results are compared to corresponding simulations performed with the crop model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Each model is driven with historical atmospheric forcing data (1901-2005), and projected atmospheric forcing data under RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 (2006-2100) from CESM CMIP5 simulations to estimate the effects of different climate change projections on potential productivity of food crops at a global scale. For each set of atmospheric forcing data, production of each crop is simulated with and without inclusion of adaptive management practices (e.g. application of irrigation, N fertilization, change in planting time and crop cultivars etc.) to assess the effect of adaptation on projected crop production over the 21st century. In detail, three questions are addressed: (1) what is the impact of different climate change projections on global crop production; (2) what is the effect of adaptive management practices on projected crop production; and (3) how do differences in model mechanisms in ISAM and CLM4.5 impact projected global crop production and adaptive management practices (irrigation and N fertilizer) over the 21st century. The major outcomes of this study will help to understand the uncertainties in potential productivity of food crops under different environmental conditions and management practices.

Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H.; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

2017-03-01

The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

Integrating international relations and environmental science course concepts through an interactive world politics simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straub, K. H.; Kesgin, B.

2012-12-01

During the fall 2012 semester, students in two introductory courses at Susquehanna University - EENV:101 Environmental Science and POLI:131 World Affairs - will participate together in an online international relations simulation called Statecraft (www.statecraftsim.com). In this strategy game, students are divided into teams representing independent countries, and choose their government type (democracy, constitutional monarchy, communist totalitarian, or military dictatorship) and two country attributes (industrial, green, militaristic, pacifist, or scientific), which determine a set of rules by which that country must abide. Countries interact over issues such as resource distribution, war, pollution, immigration, and global climate change, and must also keep domestic political unrest to a minimum in order to succeed in the game. This simulation has typically been run in political science courses, as the goal is to allow students to experience the balancing act necessary to maintain control of global and domestic issues in a dynamic, diverse world. This semester, environmental science students will be integrated into the simulation, both as environmental advisers to each country and as independent actors representing groups such as Greenpeace, ExxonMobil, and UNEP. The goal in integrating the two courses in the simulation is for the students in each course to gain both 1) content knowledge of certain fundamental material in the other course, and 2) a more thorough, applied understanding of the integrated nature of the two subjects. Students will gain an appreciation for the multiple tradeoffs that decision-makers must face in the real world (economy, resources, pollution, health, defense, etc.). Environmental science students will link these concepts to the traditional course material through a "systems thinking" approach to sustainability. Political science students will face the challenges of global climate change and gain an understanding of the nature of scientific research and uncertainty on this topic. One of the global issues that students must face in the simulation is the melting of "Ice Mountain," which threatens to flood coastal cities before the end of the game; only through cooperative action can the "Globe of Frost" be built to potentially stop the melting. In addition, the game fundamentally integrates tradeoffs between resources, pollution, immigration, education, health, defense, and other sustainability-related subjects throughout. Pre- and post-course surveys will include both environmental science/sustainability and political science concepts that may not be explicitly taught in both courses, but that students should have a greater awareness of through their interaction in the Statecraft simulation. Student attitudes toward integration of the course material will also be assessed.

A case study predicting environmental impacts of urban transport planning in China.

PubMed

Chen, Chong; Shao, Li-guo; Xu, Ling; Shang, Jin-cheng

2009-10-01

Predicting environmental impacts is essential when performing an environmental assessment on urban transport planning. System dynamics (SD) is usually used to solve complex nonlinear problems. In this study, we utilized system dynamics (SD) to evaluate the environmental impacts associated with urban transport planning in Jilin City, China with respect to the local economy, society, transport, the environment and resources. To accomplish this, we generated simulation models comprising interrelated subsystems designed to utilize changes in the economy, society, road construction, changes in the number of vehicles, the capacity of the road network capacity, nitrogen oxides emission, traffic noise, land used for road construction and fuel consumption associated with traffic to estimate dynamic trends in the environmental impacts associated with Jilin's transport planning. Two simulation scenarios were then analyzed comparatively. The results of this study indicated that implementation of Jilin transport planning would improve the current urban traffic conditions and boost the local economy and development while benefiting the environment in Jilin City. In addition, comparative analysis of the two scenarios provided additional information that can be used to aid in scientific decision-making regarding which aspects of the transport planning to implement in Jilin City. This study demonstrates that our application of the SD method, which is referred to as the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), is feasible for use in urban transport planning.

Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

PubMed Central

Tuluri, Francis; Reddy, R. Suseela; Anjaneyulu, Y.; Colonias, John; Tchounwou, Paul

2010-01-01

Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane) began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF) simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax) using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained at the equilibrium level (EL), from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS) for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes. PMID:20623002

Toward more robust projections of forest landscape dynamics under novel environmental conditions: embedding PnET within LANDIS-II

Treesearch

A. De Bruijn; E.J. Gustafson; B.R. Sturtevant; J.R. Foster; B.R. Miranda; N.I. Lichti; D.F. Jacobs

2014-01-01

Ecological models built on phenomenological relationships and behavior of the past may not be robustunder novel conditions of the future because global changes are producing environmental conditions that forests have not experienced historically. We developed a new succession extension for the LANDIS-II forest landscape model, PnET-Succession, to simulate forest growth...

Improving the Adaptability of Simulated Evolutionary Swarm Robots in Dynamically Changing Environments

PubMed Central

Yao, Yao; Marchal, Kathleen; Van de Peer, Yves

2014-01-01

One of the important challenges in the field of evolutionary robotics is the development of systems that can adapt to a changing environment. However, the ability to adapt to unknown and fluctuating environments is not straightforward. Here, we explore the adaptive potential of simulated swarm robots that contain a genomic encoding of a bio-inspired gene regulatory network (GRN). An artificial genome is combined with a flexible agent-based system, representing the activated part of the regulatory network that transduces environmental cues into phenotypic behaviour. Using an artificial life simulation framework that mimics a dynamically changing environment, we show that separating the static from the conditionally active part of the network contributes to a better adaptive behaviour. Furthermore, in contrast with most hitherto developed ANN-based systems that need to re-optimize their complete controller network from scratch each time they are subjected to novel conditions, our system uses its genome to store GRNs whose performance was optimized under a particular environmental condition for a sufficiently long time. When subjected to a new environment, the previous condition-specific GRN might become inactivated, but remains present. This ability to store ‘good behaviour’ and to disconnect it from the novel rewiring that is essential under a new condition allows faster re-adaptation if any of the previously observed environmental conditions is reencountered. As we show here, applying these evolutionary-based principles leads to accelerated and improved adaptive evolution in a non-stable environment. PMID:24599485

Designing environmental campaigns by using agent-based simulations: strategies for changing environmental attitudes.

PubMed

Mosler, Hans-Joachim; Martens, Thomas

2008-09-01

Agent-based computer simulation was used to create artificial communities in which each individual was constructed according to the principles of the elaboration likelihood model of Petty and Cacioppo [1986. The elaboration likelihood model of persuasion. In: Berkowitz, L. (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. Academic Press, New York, NY, pp. 123-205]. Campaigning strategies and community characteristics were varied systematically to understand and test their impact on attitudes towards environmental protection. The results show that strong arguments influence a green (environmentally concerned) population with many contacts most effectively, while peripheral cues have the greatest impact on a non-green population with fewer contacts. Overall, deeper information scrutiny increases the impact of strong arguments but is especially important for convincing green populations. Campaigns involving person-to-person communication are superior to mass-media campaigns because they can be adapted to recipients' characteristics.

Simulation Modeling of Lakes in Undergraduate and Graduate Classrooms Increases Comprehension of Climate Change Concepts and Experience with Computational Tools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carey, Cayelan C.; Gougis, Rebekka Darner

2017-01-01

Ecosystem modeling is a critically important tool for environmental scientists, yet is rarely taught in undergraduate and graduate classrooms. To address this gap, we developed a teaching module that exposes students to a suite of modeling skills and tools (including computer programming, numerical simulation modeling, and distributed computing)…

Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data.

PubMed

González, Edgar J; Martorell, Carlos

2013-07-01

Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with artificial and real data. The former involved simulated species with widely different demographic behaviors. The latter used a chronosequence of populations of an endangered cactus subject to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. In our simulations, the vital rates and their change were always reconstructed accurately. Nevertheless, the model frequently produced alternative results. The use of coarse knowledge of the species' biology (whether vital rates increase or decrease with size or their plausible values) allowed the correct rates to be identified with a 90% success rate. With real data, the model correctly reconstructed the effects of disturbance on vital rates. These effects were previously known from two populations for which demographic data were available. Our procedure seems robust, as the data violated several of the model's assumptions. Thus, time series of size structures and densities contain the necessary information to reconstruct changing vital rates. However, additional biological knowledge may be required to provide reliable results. Because time series of size structures and densities are available for many species or can be rapidly generated, our model can contribute to understand populations that face highly pressing environmental problems.

Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data

PubMed Central

González, Edgar J; Martorell, Carlos

2013-01-01

Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with artificial and real data. The former involved simulated species with widely different demographic behaviors. The latter used a chronosequence of populations of an endangered cactus subject to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. In our simulations, the vital rates and their change were always reconstructed accurately. Nevertheless, the model frequently produced alternative results. The use of coarse knowledge of the species' biology (whether vital rates increase or decrease with size or their plausible values) allowed the correct rates to be identified with a 90% success rate. With real data, the model correctly reconstructed the effects of disturbance on vital rates. These effects were previously known from two populations for which demographic data were available. Our procedure seems robust, as the data violated several of the model's assumptions. Thus, time series of size structures and densities contain the necessary information to reconstruct changing vital rates. However, additional biological knowledge may be required to provide reliable results. Because time series of size structures and densities are available for many species or can be rapidly generated, our model can contribute to understand populations that face highly pressing environmental problems. PMID:23919169

Simulated sensitivity of the tropical cyclone eyewall replacement cycle to the ambient temperature profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xulin; He, Jie; Ge, Xuyang

2017-09-01

In this study, the impacts of the environmental temperature profile on the tropical cyclone eyewall replacement cycle are examined using idealized numerical simulations. It is found that the environmental thermal condition can greatly affect the formation and structure of a secondary eyewall and the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle. Simulation with a warmer thermal profile produces a larger moat and a prolonged eyewall replacement cycle. It is revealed that the enhanced static stability greatly suppresses convection, and thus causes slow secondary eyewall formation. The possible processes influencing the decay of inner eyewall convection are investigated. It is revealed that the demise of the inner eyewall is related to a choking effect associated with outer eyewall convection, the radial distribution of moist entropy fluxes within the moat region, the enhanced static stability in the inner-core region, and the interaction between the inner and outer eyewalls due to the barotropic instability. This study motivates further research into how environmental conditions influence tropical cyclone dynamics and thermodynamics.

Dynamic Biological Functioning Important for Simulating and Stabilizing Ocean Biogeochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchanan, P. J.; Matear, R. J.; Chase, Z.; Phipps, S. J.; Bindoff, N. L.

2018-04-01

The biogeochemistry of the ocean exerts a strong influence on the climate by modulating atmospheric greenhouse gases. In turn, ocean biogeochemistry depends on numerous physical and biological processes that change over space and time. Accurately simulating these processes is fundamental for accurately simulating the ocean's role within the climate. However, our simulation of these processes is often simplistic, despite a growing understanding of underlying biological dynamics. Here we explore how new parameterizations of biological processes affect simulated biogeochemical properties in a global ocean model. We combine 6 different physical realizations with 6 different biogeochemical parameterizations (36 unique ocean states). The biogeochemical parameterizations, all previously published, aim to more accurately represent the response of ocean biology to changing physical conditions. We make three major findings. First, oxygen, carbon, alkalinity, and phosphate fields are more sensitive to changes in the ocean's physical state. Only nitrate is more sensitive to changes in biological processes, and we suggest that assessment protocols for ocean biogeochemical models formally include the marine nitrogen cycle to assess their performance. Second, we show that dynamic variations in the production, remineralization, and stoichiometry of organic matter in response to changing environmental conditions benefit the simulation of ocean biogeochemistry. Third, dynamic biological functioning reduces the sensitivity of biogeochemical properties to physical change. Carbon and nitrogen inventories were 50% and 20% less sensitive to physical changes, respectively, in simulations that incorporated dynamic biological functioning. These results highlight the importance of a dynamic biology for ocean properties and climate.

The effects of simulated space environmental parameters on six commercially available composite materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Funk, Joan G.; Sykes, George F., Jr.

1989-01-01

The effects of simulated space environmental parameters on microdamage induced by the environment in a series of commercially available graphite-fiber-reinforced composite materials were determined. Composites with both thermoset and thermoplastic resin systems were studied. Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) exposures were simulated by thermal cycling; geosynchronous-orbit (GEO) exposures were simulated by electron irradiation plus thermal cycling. The thermal cycling temperature range was -250 F to either 200 F or 150 F. The upper limits of the thermal cycles were different to ensure that an individual composite material was not cycled above its glass transition temperature. Material response was characterized through assessment of the induced microcracking and its influence on mechanical property changes at both room temperature and -250 F. Microdamage was induced in both thermoset and thermoplastic advanced composite materials exposed to the simulated LEO environment. However, a 350 F cure single-phase toughened epoxy composite was not damaged during exposure to the LEO environment. The simuated GEO environment produced microdamage in all materials tested.

Climate Change Impact on Air Quality in High Resolution Simulation for Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halenka, T.; Huszar, P.; Belda, M.

2009-04-01

Recently the effects of climate change on air-quality and vice-versa are studied quite extensively. In fact, even at regional and local scale especially the impact of climate change on the atmospheric composition and photochemical smog formation conditions can be significant when expecting e.g. more frequent appearance of heat waves etc. For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the magnitude of such effects and to study the potential of climate forcing due to atmospheric chemistry/aerosols on regional scale, chemistry-transport model was coupled to RegCM on the Department of Meteorology and Environmental Protection, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University in Prague, for the simulations in framework of the EC FP6 Project CECILIA. Off-line one way coupling enables the simulation of distribution of pollutants over 1991-2001 in very high resolution of 10 km is compared to the EMEP observations for the area of Central Europe. Simulations driven by climate change boundary conditions for time slices 1991-2000, 2041-2050 and 2091-2100 are presented to show the effect of climate change on the air quality in the region.

Simulating Water Resource Disputes of Transboundary River: A Case Study of the Zhanghe River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Liang; He, Weijun; Liao, Zaiyi; Mulugeta Degefu, Dagmawi; An, Min; Zhang, Zhaofang

2018-01-01

Water resource disputes within transboundary river basin has been hindering the sustainable use of water resources and efficient management of environment. The problem is characterized by a complex information feedback loop that involves socio-economic and environmental systems. This paper presents a system dynamics based model that can simulate the dynamics of water demand, water supply, water adequacy and water allocation instability within a river basin. It was used for a case study in the Zhanghe River basin of China. The base scenario has been investigated for the time period between 2000 and 2050. The result shows that the Chinese national government should change the water allocation scheme of downstream Zhanghe River established in 1989, more water need to be allocated to the downstream cities and the actual allocation should be adjusted to reflect the need associated with the socio-economic and environmental changes within the region, and system dynamics improves the understanding of concepts and system interactions by offering a comprehensive and integrated view of the physical, social, economic, environmental, and political systems.

A new magnetofossil approach to trace paleoenvironmental changes across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, L.; Harrison, R. J.; Heslop, D.; Roberts, A. P.

2017-12-01

We present a novel multiscale approach to environmental magnetic analysis of geological samples, where combined use of direct nanoscale observations of magnetic mineral particles, rock magnetism and micromagnetic simulation enable production of robust magnetic proxies for tracing important paleoenvironmental change. We have applied such an analysis to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), which was the most pronounced Cenozoic global warming event that has been cited as the best analog for understanding present-day warming. Investigating environmental changes across the PETM and associated biological turnovers in marine environments are crucially important because the ocean is a major reservoir for absorbed atmospheric CO2. Nevertheless, knowledge of marine productivity and deep sea oxygenation across the PETM is controversial. We present a new high-resolution PETM record from the South Atlantic Ocean using exceptionally preserved magnetofossils - the inorganic magnetite crystals produced by magnetotactic bacteria. Using rock magnetic properties, statistical analysis of magnetofossil morphologies, and micromagnetic simulation, we demonstrate consistent microfossil signatures for tracing paleoenvironmental changes across the PETM. Our data suggest a transient productivity rise in the pelagic South Atlantic Ocean. The bottom oxygenation decreased gradually from the PETM onset to its peak, and remained low during the early recovery stage of the PETM. Our microbial records provide new insights into the origin and environmental turnovers across the PETM.

Study report on interfacing major physiological subsystem models: An approach for developing a whole-body algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitzjerrell, D. G.; Grounds, D. J.; Leonard, J. I.

1975-01-01

Using a whole body algorithm simulation model, a wide variety and large number of stresses as well as different stress levels were simulated including environmental disturbances, metabolic changes, and special experimental situations. Simulation of short term stresses resulted in simultaneous and integrated responses from the cardiovascular, respiratory, and thermoregulatory subsystems and the accuracy of a large number of responding variables was verified. The capability of simulating significantly longer responses was demonstrated by validating a four week bed rest study. In this case, the long term subsystem model was found to reproduce many experimentally observed changes in circulatory dynamics, body fluid-electrolyte regulation, and renal function. The value of systems analysis and the selected design approach for developing a whole body algorithm was demonstrated.

A simulation model of building intervention impacts on indoor environmental quality, pediatric asthma, and costs

PubMed Central

Fabian, Maria Patricia; Adamkiewicz, Gary; Stout, Natasha Kay; Sandel, Megan; Levy, Jonathan Ian

2013-01-01

Background Although indoor environmental conditions can affect pediatric asthmatics, few studies have characterized the impact of building interventions on asthma-related outcomes. Simulation models can evaluate such complex systems but have not been applied in this context. Objective To evaluate the impacts of building interventions on indoor environmental quality and pediatric asthma healthcare utilization, and to conduct cost comparisons between intervention and healthcare costs, and energy savings. Methods We applied our previously developed discrete event simulation model (DEM) to simulate the effect of environmental factors, medication compliance, seasonality, and medical history on: 1) pollutant concentrations indoors, and 2) asthma outcomes in low-income multi-family housing. We estimated healthcare utilization and costs at baseline and subsequent to interventions, and then compared healthcare costs to energy savings and intervention costs. Results Interventions such as integrated pest management and repairing kitchen exhaust fans led to 7–12% reductions in serious asthma events with 1–3 year payback periods. Weatherization efforts targeted solely towards tightening a building envelope led to 20% more serious asthma events, but bundling with repairing kitchen exhaust fans and eliminating indoor sources (e.g. gas stoves or smokers) mitigated this impact. Conclusion Our pediatric asthma model provides a tool to prioritize individual and bundled building interventions based on their impact on health and cost, and highlighting the tradeoffs between weatherization, indoor air quality, and health. Our work bridges the gap between clinical and environmental health sciences by increasing physicians’ understanding of the impact that home environmental changes can have on their patients’ asthma. PMID:23910689

Impact of topography and land-sea distribution on east Asian paleoenvironmental patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z. S.; Wang, H. J.; Guo, Z. T.; Jiang, D. B.

2006-03-01

Much geological research has illustrated the transition of paleoenvironmental patterns during the Cenozoic from a planetary-wind-dominant type to a monsoon-dominant type, indicating the initiation of the East Asian monsoon and inland-type aridity. However, there is a dispute about the causes and mechanisms of the transition, especially about the impact of the Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau uplift and the Paratethys Sea retreat. Thirty numerical sensitivity experiments under different land-sea distributions and Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau topography conditions are performed here to simulate the evolution of climate belts with emphasis on changes in the rain band, and these are compared with the changes in the paleoenvironmental patterns during the Cenozoic recovered by geological records, The consistency between simulations and the geological evidence indicates that both the Tibetan Plateau uplift and the Paratethys Sea retreat play important roles in the formation of the monsoon-dominant environmental pattern. Furthermore, the simulations show the monsoon-dominant environmental pattern comes into being when the Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau reaches 1000-2000 m high and the Paratethys Sea retreats to the Turan Plate.

Agent-Based Model Simulating Pedestrian Behavioral Response to Environmental Structural Changes

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-12-01

The authors' research focused on understanding the travel behavior of individuals in complex urban environments. Specifically, the authors investigated how land use patterns and infrastructure influence how individuals across a broad range of travel ...

WASTE REDUCTION USING COMPUTER-AIDED DESIGN TOOLS

EPA Science Inventory

Growing environmental concerns have spurred considerable interest in pollution prevention. In most instances, pollution prevention involves introducing radical changes to the design of processes so that waste generation is minimized.
Process simulators can be effective tools i...

Suboptimal evolutionary novel environments promote singular altered gravity responses of transcriptome during Drosophila metamorphosis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Previous experiments have shown that the reduced gravity aboard the International Space Station (ISS) causes important alterations in Drosophila gene expression. These changes were shown to be intimately linked to environmental space-flight related constraints. Results Here, we use an array of different techniques for ground-based simulation of microgravity effects to assess the effect of suboptimal environmental conditions on the gene expression of Drosophila in reduced gravity. A global and integrative analysis, using “gene expression dynamics inspector” (GEDI) self-organizing maps, reveals different degrees in the responses of the transcriptome when using different environmental conditions or microgravity/hypergravity simulation devices. Although the genes that are affected are different in each simulation technique, we find that the same gene ontology groups, including at least one large multigene family related with behavior, stress response or organogenesis, are over represented in each case. Conclusions These results suggest that the transcriptome as a whole can be finely tuned to gravity force. In optimum environmental conditions, the alteration of gravity has only mild effects on gene expression but when environmental conditions are far from optimal, the gene expression must be tuned greatly and effects become more robust, probably linked to the lack of experience of organisms exposed to evolutionary novel environments such as a gravitational free one. PMID:23806134

An interactive tool for outdoor computer controlled cultivation of microalgae in a tubular photobioreactor system.

PubMed

Dormido, Raquel; Sánchez, José; Duro, Natividad; Dormido-Canto, Sebastián; Guinaldo, María; Dormido, Sebastián

2014-03-06

This paper describes an interactive virtual laboratory for experimenting with an outdoor tubular photobioreactor (henceforth PBR for short). This virtual laboratory it makes possible to: (a) accurately reproduce the structure of a real plant (the PBR designed and built by the Department of Chemical Engineering of the University of Almería, Spain); (b) simulate a generic tubular PBR by changing the PBR geometry; (c) simulate the effects of changing different operating parameters such as the conditions of the culture (pH, biomass concentration, dissolved O2, inyected CO2, etc.); (d) simulate the PBR in its environmental context; it is possible to change the geographic location of the system or the solar irradiation profile; (e) apply different control strategies to adjust different variables such as the CO2 injection, culture circulation rate or culture temperature in order to maximize the biomass production; (f) simulate the harvesting. In this way, users can learn in an intuitive way how productivity is affected by any change in the design. It facilitates the learning of how to manipulate essential variables for microalgae growth to design an optimal PBR. The simulator has been developed with Easy Java Simulations, a freeware open-source tool developed in Java, specifically designed for the creation of interactive dynamic simulations.

An Interactive Tool for Outdoor Computer Controlled Cultivation of Microalgae in a Tubular Photobioreactor System

PubMed Central

Dormido, Raquel; Sánchez, José; Duro, Natividad; Dormido-Canto, Sebastián; Guinaldo, María; Dormido, Sebastián

2014-01-01

This paper describes an interactive virtual laboratory for experimenting with an outdoor tubular photobioreactor (henceforth PBR for short). This virtual laboratory it makes possible to: (a) accurately reproduce the structure of a real plant (the PBR designed and built by the Department of Chemical Engineering of the University of Almería, Spain); (b) simulate a generic tubular PBR by changing the PBR geometry; (c) simulate the effects of changing different operating parameters such as the conditions of the culture (pH, biomass concentration, dissolved O2, inyected CO2, etc.); (d) simulate the PBR in its environmental context; it is possible to change the geographic location of the system or the solar irradiation profile; (e) apply different control strategies to adjust different variables such as the CO2 injection, culture circulation rate or culture temperature in order to maximize the biomass production; (f) simulate the harvesting. In this way, users can learn in an intuitive way how productivity is affected by any change in the design. It facilitates the learning of how to manipulate essential variables for microalgae growth to design an optimal PBR. The simulator has been developed with Easy Java Simulations, a freeware open-source tool developed in Java, specifically designed for the creation of interactive dynamic simulations. PMID:24662450

One multi-media environmental system with linkage between meteorology/ hydrology/ air quality models and water quality model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, C.; Lynch, J. A.; Dennis, R. L.

2016-12-01

The biogeochemical processing of nitrogen and associated pollutants is driven by meteorological and hydrological processes in conjunction with pollutant loading. There are feedbacks between meteorology and hydrology that will be affected by land-use change and climate change. Changes in meteorology will affect pollutant deposition. It is important to account for those feedbacks and produce internally consistent simulations of meteorology, hydrology, and pollutant loading to drive the (watershed/water quality) biogeochemical models. In this study, the ecological response to emission reductions in streams in the Potomac watershed was evaluated. Firstly, we simulated the deposition by using the fully coupled Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CAMQ) model; secondly, we created the hydrological data by the offline linked Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the WRF model. Lastly, we investigated the water quality by one comprehensive/environment model, namely the linkage of CMAQ, WRF, VIC and the Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchment (MAGIC) model from 2002 to 2010.The simulated results (such as NO3, SO4, and SBC) fit well to the observed values. The linkage provides a generally accurate, well-tested tool for evaluating sensitivities to varying meteorology and environmental changes on acidification and other biogeochemical processes, with capability to comprehensively explore strategic policy and management design.

The Effect of Considering Environmental Aspect to Distribution Planning: A Case in Logistics SME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prambudia, Yudha; Andrian Nur, Andri

2016-01-01

Environmental aspect is often neglected in traditional distribution planning process of a product. Especially in small-medium enterprises (SME) of developing countries where cost efficiency is the predominant factor. Bearing in mind that there is a large number of SME's performing logistics activities, the consideration of environmental aspect in their distribution planning process would be beneficial to climate change mitigation efforts. The purpose of this paper is to show the impact of environmental aspect should it be considered as a contributing factor in distribution planning. In this research, an adoption of CO2-emission factor in an SME's distribution planning in Indonesia was simulated. The outputs of distribution planning with and without the factor consideration are then compared. The result shows that adoption of CO2-emission factor would change the priority of delivery route.

Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Hongyi

This study explores the interactions between climate and thermoelectric generation in the U.S. by coupling an Earth System Model with a thermoelectric power generation model. We validated model simulations of power production for selected power plants (~44% of existing thermoelectric capacity) against reported values. In addition, we projected future usable capacity for existing power plants under two different climate change scenarios. Results indicate that climate change alone may reduce average thermoelectric generating capacity by 2%-3% by the 2060s. Reductions up to 12% are expected if environmental requirements are enforced without waivers for thermal variation. This study concludes that the impactmore » of climate change on the U.S. thermoelectric power system is less than previous estimates due to an inclusion of a spatially-disaggregated representation of environmental regulations and provisional variances that temporarily relieve power plants from permit requirements. This work highlights the significance of accounting for legal constructs in which the operation of power plants are managed, and underscores the effects of provisional variances in addition to environmental requirements.« less

Hydrology of Malaria: A New Class of Models for Environmental Management and Studies of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, E. A.

2011-12-01

A mechanistic and spatially-explicit model of hydrological and entomological processes that lead to malaria transmission is developed and tested against field observations. HYDREMATS (HYDRology, Entomology, and MAlaria Transmission Simulator) is described in (Bomblies and Eltahir, WRR, 44,2008). HYDREMATS is suitable for low cost screening of environmental management interventions, and for studying the impact of climate change on malaria transmission. Examples of specific applications will be presented from Niger in Africa. The potential for using HYDREMATS to study the impact of water reservoirs on malaria transmission will be discussed.

Simulation of Malaria Transmission among Households in a Thai Village using Remotely Sensed Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard K.; Adimi, Farida; Zollner, Gabriela E.; Coleman, Russell E.

2007-01-01

We have used discrete-event simulation to model the malaria transmission in a Thailand village with approximately 700 residents. Specifically, we model the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. Some of the meteorological and environmental parameters used in the simulation are derived from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and the Ikonos satellite data. Parameters used in the simulations reflect the realistic condition of the village, including the locations and sizes of the households, ages and estimated immunity of the residents, presence of farm animals, and locations of larval habitats. Larval habitats include the actual locations where larvae were collected and the probable locations based on satellite data. The output of the simulation includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Simulated transmission under homogeneous environmental condition was compared with that predicted by a SEIR model. Sensitivity of the output with respect to some extrinsic and intrinsic factors was investigated. Results were compared with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired over 4.5 years (June 1999 - January 2004) in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in Kanchanaburi Province, western Thailand. The simulation method is useful for testing transmission hypotheses, estimating the efficacy of insecticide applications, assessing the impacts of nonimmune immigrants, and predicting the effects of socioeconomic, environmental and climatic changes.

Basic Techniques in Environmental Simulation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-07-01

the devel- ’I or oper is liable for all necessary changes in the model or its supporting computer software . After the 90-day warranty expires, the user...processing unit, that part of a computer which accom- plishes arithmetic and logical operations DCFLOS Dynamic cloud -free line-of-sight, a simulation... Software Development ......... 12 1.7.7 Operational Environment, Interfaces, and Constraints. . 12 1.7.8 Effectiveness Evaluation, Value Analysis, and

Response of Vegetation Dynamics to Projected Climate Change based on NDVI Simulations using Stepwise Cluster Analysis in the Three-River Headwaters Region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.; Lv, E.; Huang, Y.

2016-12-01

Located in the hinterland of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the Three-River Headwaters region (THR) features unique eco-environmental conditions and fragile ecosystems, and is very vulnerable to climate change. To investigate the effects of climate change on the ecosystem, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was employed as an indicator to reflect the vegetation dynamics in response to climate change. This study proposed a model based on Stepwise-cluster analysis to predict the temporal and spatial distributions of NDVI values for five future years according to Global Circulation Models (GCMs) climate projections under the RCP4.5 scenario. The obtained spatial results showed very good agreements between simulations and remote sensing observations of the NDVI value for both training and validation, and the developed model demonstrated its capability of predicting the monthly changes of NDVI through representing the relationships between it and various climatic factors, including remote sensed precipitation and temperature with no, 1 and 2-month lag period. The monthly average precipitation with one-month lag period was further found to be the most important climatic factor that drives the changes of NDVI in the THR. Compared with the values of NDVI in 2000 - 2013, the predicting results indicate the values of NDVI for the THR in growing season (May to October) will decrease by 15.74% in the next 100 years, suggesting that the THR is going to experience an environmental degradation. The results also show that precipitation is the primary driving factor relative to temperature, especially the one-month-lag precipitation. Findings from this study would help policy makers draw up effective water resource and eco-environmental management strategies for adapting to climate change in the THR.

Using in situ simulation to identify and resolve latent environmental threats to patient safety: case study involving operational changes in a labor and delivery ward.

PubMed

Hamman, William R; Beaudin-Seiler, Beth M; Beaubien, Jeffrey M; Gullickson, Amy M; Orizondo-Korotko, Krystyna; Gross, Amy C; Fuqua, Wayne; Lammers, Richard

2010-01-01

Since the publication of "To Err Is Human" in 1999, health care professionals have looked to high-reliability industries such as aviation for guidance on improving system safety. One of the most widely adopted aviation-derived approaches is simulation-based team training, also known as crew resource management training. In the health care domain, crew resource management training often takes place in custom-built simulation laboratories that are designed to replicate operating rooms or labor and delivery rooms. Unlike these traditional crew resource management training programs, "in situ simulation" occurs on actual patient care units, involves actual health care team members, and uses actual organization processes to train and assess team performance. During the past 24 months, our research team has conducted nearly 40 in situ simulations. In this article, we present the results from 1 such simulation: a patient who experienced a difficult labor that resulted in an emergency caesarian section and hysterectomy. During the simulation, a number of latent environmental threats to safety were identified. This article presents the latent threats and the steps that the hospital has taken to remedy them.

The effect of adjusting model inputs to achieve mass balance on time-dynamic simulations in a food-web model of Lake Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langseth, Brian J.; Jones, Michael L.; Riley, Stephen C.

2014-01-01

Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) is a widely used modeling tool in fishery research and management. Ecopath requires a mass-balanced snapshot of a food web at a particular point in time, which Ecosim then uses to simulate changes in biomass over time. Initial inputs to Ecopath, including estimates for biomasses, production to biomass ratios, consumption to biomass ratios, and diets, rarely produce mass balance, and thus ad hoc changes to inputs are required to balance the model. There has been little previous research of whether ad hoc changes to achieve mass balance affect Ecosim simulations. We constructed an EwE model for the offshore community of Lake Huron, and balanced the model using four contrasting but realistic methods. The four balancing methods were based on two contrasting approaches; in the first approach, production of unbalanced groups was increased by increasing either biomass or the production to biomass ratio, while in the second approach, consumption of predators on unbalanced groups was decreased by decreasing either biomass or the consumption to biomass ratio. We compared six simulation scenarios based on three alternative assumptions about the extent to which mortality rates of prey can change in response to changes in predator biomass (i.e., vulnerabilities) under perturbations to either fishing mortality or environmental production. Changes in simulated biomass values over time were used in a principal components analysis to assess the comparative effect of balancing method, vulnerabilities, and perturbation types. Vulnerabilities explained the most variation in biomass, followed by the type of perturbation. Choice of balancing method explained little of the overall variation in biomass. Under scenarios where changes in predator biomass caused large changes in mortality rates of prey (i.e., high vulnerabilities), variation in biomass was greater than when changes in predator biomass caused only small changes in mortality rates of prey (i.e., low vulnerabilities), and was amplified when environmental production was increased. When standardized to mean changes in biomass within each scenario, scenarios when vulnerabilities were low and when fishing mortality was increased explained the most variation in biomass. Our findings suggested that approaches to balancing Ecopath models have relatively little effect on changes in biomass over time, especially when compared to assumptions about how mortality rates of prey change in response to changes in predator biomass. We concluded that when constructing food-web models using EwE, determining the effect of changes in predator biomass on mortality rates of prey should be prioritized over determining the best way to balance the model.

Parameterisation of Biome BGC to assess forest ecosystems in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, Sishir; Pietsch, Stephan A.

2010-05-01

African forest ecosystems are an important environmental and economic resource. Several studies show that tropical forests are critical to society as economic, environmental and societal resources. Tropical forests are carbon dense and thus play a key role in climate change mitigation. Unfortunately, the response of tropical forests to environmental change is largely unknown owing to insufficient spatially extensive observations. Developing regions like Africa where records of forest management for long periods are unavailable the process-based ecosystem simulation model - BIOME BGC could be a suitable tool to explain forest ecosystem dynamics. This ecosystem simulation model uses descriptive input parameters to establish the physiology, biochemistry, structure, and allocation patterns within vegetation functional types, or biomes. Undocumented parameters for larger-resolution simulations are currently the major limitations to regional modelling in African forest ecosystems. This study was conducted to document input parameters for BIOME-BGC for major natural tropical forests in the Congo basin. Based on available literature and field measurements updated values for turnover and mortality, allometry, carbon to nitrogen ratios, allocation of plant material to labile, cellulose, and lignin pools, tree morphology and other relevant factors were assigned. Daily climate input data for the model applications were generated using the statistical weather generator MarkSim. The forest was inventoried at various sites and soil samples of corresponding stands across Gabon were collected. Carbon and nitrogen in the collected soil samples were determined from soil analysis. The observed tree volume, soil carbon and soil nitrogen were then compared with the simulated model outputs to evaluate the model performance. Furthermore, the simulation using Congo Basin specific parameters and generalised BIOME BGC parameters for tropical evergreen broadleaved tree species were also executed and the simulated results compared. Once the model was optimised for forests in the Congo basin it was validated against observed tree volume, soil carbon and soil nitrogen from a set of independent plots.

Biological Interactions and Simulated Climate Change Modulates the Ecophysiological Performance of Colobanthus quitensis in the Antarctic Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Gallardo-Cerda, Jorge; Lavin, Paris; Oses, Rómulo; Carrasco-Urra, Fernando; Atala, Cristian; Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S.; Convey, Peter; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A.

2016-01-01

Most climate and environmental change models predict significant increases in temperature and precipitation by the end of the 21st Century, for which the current functional output of certain symbioses may also be altered. In this context we address the following questions: 1) How the expected changes in abiotic factors (temperature, and water) differentially affect the ecophysiological performance of the plant Colobanthus quitensis? and 2) Will this environmental change indirectly affect C. quitensis photochemical performance and biomass accumulation by modifying its association with fungal endophytes? Plants of C. quitensis from King George Island in the South Shetland archipelago (62°09′ S), and Lagotellerie Island in the Antarctic Peninsula (65°53′ S) were put under simulated abiotic conditions in growth chambers following predictive models of global climate change (GCC). The indirect effect of GCC on the interaction between C. quitensis and fungal endophytes was assessed in a field experiment carried out in the Antarctica, in which we eliminated endophytes under contemporary conditions and applied experimental watering to simulate increased precipitation input. We measured four proxies of plant performance. First, we found that warming (+W) significantly increased plant performance, however its effect tended to be less than watering (+W) and combined warming and watering (+T°+W). Second, the presence of fungal endophytes improved plant performance, and its effect was significantly decreased under experimental watering. Our results indicate that both biotic and abiotic factors affect ecophysiological performance, and the directions of these influences will change with climate change. Our findings provide valuable information that will help to predict future population spread and evolution through using ecological niche models under different climatic scenarios. PMID:27776181

Biological Interactions and Simulated Climate Change Modulates the Ecophysiological Performance of Colobanthus quitensis in the Antarctic Ecosystem.

PubMed

Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Gallardo-Cerda, Jorge; Lavin, Paris; Oses, Rómulo; Carrasco-Urra, Fernando; Atala, Cristian; Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S; Convey, Peter; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A

2016-01-01

Most climate and environmental change models predict significant increases in temperature and precipitation by the end of the 21st Century, for which the current functional output of certain symbioses may also be altered. In this context we address the following questions: 1) How the expected changes in abiotic factors (temperature, and water) differentially affect the ecophysiological performance of the plant Colobanthus quitensis? and 2) Will this environmental change indirectly affect C. quitensis photochemical performance and biomass accumulation by modifying its association with fungal endophytes? Plants of C. quitensis from King George Island in the South Shetland archipelago (62°09' S), and Lagotellerie Island in the Antarctic Peninsula (65°53' S) were put under simulated abiotic conditions in growth chambers following predictive models of global climate change (GCC). The indirect effect of GCC on the interaction between C. quitensis and fungal endophytes was assessed in a field experiment carried out in the Antarctica, in which we eliminated endophytes under contemporary conditions and applied experimental watering to simulate increased precipitation input. We measured four proxies of plant performance. First, we found that warming (+W) significantly increased plant performance, however its effect tended to be less than watering (+W) and combined warming and watering (+T°+W). Second, the presence of fungal endophytes improved plant performance, and its effect was significantly decreased under experimental watering. Our results indicate that both biotic and abiotic factors affect ecophysiological performance, and the directions of these influences will change with climate change. Our findings provide valuable information that will help to predict future population spread and evolution through using ecological niche models under different climatic scenarios.

Signal-transfer Modeling for Regional Assessment of Forest Responses to Environmental Changes in the Southeastern United States

Treesearch

Robert J. Luxmoore; William W. Hargrove; M. Lynn Tharp; Wilfred M. Post; Michael W. Berry; Karen S. Minser; Wendell P. Cropper; Dale W. Johnson; Boris Zeide; Ralph L. Amateis; Harold E. Burkhart; V. Clark Baldwin; Kelly D. Peterson

2000-01-01

Stochastic transfer of information in a hierarchy of simulators is offered as a conceptual approach for assessing forest responses to changing climate and air quality across 13 southeastern states of the USA. This assessment approach combines geographic information system and Monte Carlo capabilities with several scales of computer modeling for southern pine species...

A simulation model of building intervention impacts on indoor environmental quality, pediatric asthma, and costs.

PubMed

Fabian, Maria Patricia; Adamkiewicz, Gary; Stout, Natasha Kay; Sandel, Megan; Levy, Jonathan Ian

2014-01-01

Although indoor environmental conditions can affect pediatric asthmatic patients, few studies have characterized the effect of building interventions on asthma-related outcomes. Simulation models can evaluate such complex systems but have not been applied in this context. We sought to evaluate the impact of building interventions on indoor environmental quality and pediatric asthma health care use, and to conduct cost comparisons between intervention and health care costs and energy savings. We applied our previously developed discrete event simulation model (DEM) to simulate the effect of environmental factors, medication compliance, seasonality, and medical history on (1) pollutant concentrations indoors and (2) asthma outcomes in low-income multifamily housing. We estimated health care use and costs at baseline and subsequent to interventions, and then compared health care costs with energy savings and intervention costs. Interventions, such as integrated pest management and repairing kitchen exhaust fans, led to 7% to 12% reductions in serious asthma events with 1- to 3-year payback periods. Weatherization efforts targeted solely toward tightening a building envelope led to 20% more serious asthma events, but bundling with repairing kitchen exhaust fans and eliminating indoor sources (eg, gas stoves or smokers) mitigated this effect. Our pediatric asthma model provides a tool to prioritize individual and bundled building interventions based on their effects on health and costs, highlighting the tradeoffs between weatherization, indoor air quality, and health. Our work bridges the gap between clinical and environmental health sciences by increasing physicians' understanding of the effect that home environmental changes can have on their patients' asthma. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Land cover change or land-use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model.

PubMed

van Asselen, Sanneke; Verburg, Peter H

2013-12-01

Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land systems that are characterized by their land cover mosaic, the agricultural management intensity, and livestock. Land system changes are simulated by the model, driven by regional demand for goods and influenced by local factors that either constrain or promote land system conversion. A characteristic of the new model is the endogenous simulation of intensification of agricultural management versus expansion of arable land, and urban versus rural settlements expansion based on land availability in the neighborhood of the location. Model results for the OECD Environmental Outlook scenario show that allocation of increased agricultural production by either management intensification or area expansion varies both among and within world regions, providing useful insight into the land sparing versus land sharing debate. The land system approach allows the inclusion of different types of demand for goods and services from the land system as a driving factor of land system change. Simulation results are compared to observed changes over the 1970-2000 period and projections of other global and regional land change models. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Transgenerational plasticity and climate change experiments: Where do we go from here?

PubMed

Donelson, Jennifer M; Salinas, Santiago; Munday, Philip L; Shama, Lisa N S

2018-01-01

Phenotypic plasticity, both within and across generations, is an important mechanism that organisms use to cope with rapid climate change. While an increasing number of studies show that plasticity across generations (transgenerational plasticity or TGP) may occur, we have limited understanding of key aspects of TGP, such as the environmental conditions that may promote it, its relationship to within-generation plasticity (WGP) and its role in evolutionary potential. In this review, we consider how the detection of TGP in climate change experiments is affected by the predictability of environmental variation, as well as the timing and magnitude of environmental change cues applied. We also discuss the need to design experiments that are able to distinguish TGP from selection and TGP from WGP in multigenerational experiments. We conclude by suggesting future research directions that build on the knowledge to date and admit the limitations that exist, which will depend on the way environmental change is simulated and the type of experimental design used. Such an approach will open up this burgeoning area of research to a wider variety of organisms and allow better predictive capacity of the role of TGP in the response of organisms to future climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A statistical simulation model for field testing of non-target organisms in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

PubMed

Goedhart, Paul W; van der Voet, Hilko; Baldacchino, Ferdinando; Arpaia, Salvatore

2014-04-01

Genetic modification of plants may result in unintended effects causing potentially adverse effects on the environment. A comparative safety assessment is therefore required by authorities, such as the European Food Safety Authority, in which the genetically modified plant is compared with its conventional counterpart. Part of the environmental risk assessment is a comparative field experiment in which the effect on non-target organisms is compared. Statistical analysis of such trials come in two flavors: difference testing and equivalence testing. It is important to know the statistical properties of these, for example, the power to detect environmental change of a given magnitude, before the start of an experiment. Such prospective power analysis can best be studied by means of a statistical simulation model. This paper describes a general framework for simulating data typically encountered in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. The simulation model, available as Supplementary Material, can be used to generate count data having different statistical distributions possibly with excess-zeros. In addition the model employs completely randomized or randomized block experiments, can be used to simulate single or multiple trials across environments, enables genotype by environment interaction by adding random variety effects, and finally includes repeated measures in time following a constant, linear or quadratic pattern in time possibly with some form of autocorrelation. The model also allows to add a set of reference varieties to the GM plants and its comparator to assess the natural variation which can then be used to set limits of concern for equivalence testing. The different count distributions are described in some detail and some examples of how to use the simulation model to study various aspects, including a prospective power analysis, are provided.

A statistical simulation model for field testing of non-target organisms in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants

PubMed Central

Goedhart, Paul W; van der Voet, Hilko; Baldacchino, Ferdinando; Arpaia, Salvatore

2014-01-01

Genetic modification of plants may result in unintended effects causing potentially adverse effects on the environment. A comparative safety assessment is therefore required by authorities, such as the European Food Safety Authority, in which the genetically modified plant is compared with its conventional counterpart. Part of the environmental risk assessment is a comparative field experiment in which the effect on non-target organisms is compared. Statistical analysis of such trials come in two flavors: difference testing and equivalence testing. It is important to know the statistical properties of these, for example, the power to detect environmental change of a given magnitude, before the start of an experiment. Such prospective power analysis can best be studied by means of a statistical simulation model. This paper describes a general framework for simulating data typically encountered in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. The simulation model, available as Supplementary Material, can be used to generate count data having different statistical distributions possibly with excess-zeros. In addition the model employs completely randomized or randomized block experiments, can be used to simulate single or multiple trials across environments, enables genotype by environment interaction by adding random variety effects, and finally includes repeated measures in time following a constant, linear or quadratic pattern in time possibly with some form of autocorrelation. The model also allows to add a set of reference varieties to the GM plants and its comparator to assess the natural variation which can then be used to set limits of concern for equivalence testing. The different count distributions are described in some detail and some examples of how to use the simulation model to study various aspects, including a prospective power analysis, are provided. PMID:24834325

Wake Vortex Prediction Models for Decay and Transport Within Stratified Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switzer, George F.; Proctor, Fred H.

2002-01-01

This paper proposes two simple models to predict vortex transport and decay. The models are determined empirically from results of three-dimensional large eddy simulations, and are applicable to wake vortices out of ground effect and not subjected to environmental winds. The results, from the large eddy simulations assume a range of ambient turbulence and stratification levels. The models and the results from the large eddy simulations support the hypothesis that the decay of the vortex hazard is decoupled from its change in descent rate.

Environmental impacts of precision feeding programs applied in pig production.

PubMed

Andretta, I; Hauschild, L; Kipper, M; Pires, P G S; Pomar, C

2017-12-04

This study was undertaken to evaluate the effect that switching from conventional to precision feeding systems during the growing-finishing phase would have on the potential environmental impact of Brazilian pig production. Standard life-cycle assessment procedures were used, with a cradle-to-farm gate boundary. The inputs and outputs of each interface of the life cycle (production of feed ingredients, processing in the feed industry, transportation and animal rearing) were organized in a model. Grain production was independently characterized in the Central-West and South regions of Brazil, whereas the pigs were raised in the South region. Three feeding programs were applied for growing-finishing pigs: conventional phase feeding by group (CON); precision daily feeding by group (PFG) (whole herd fed the same daily adjusted diet); and precision daily feeding by individual (PFI) (diets adjusted daily to match individual nutrient requirements). Raising pigs (1 t pig BW at farm gate) in South Brazil under the CON feeding program using grain cultivated in the same region led to emissions of 1840 kg of CO2-eq, 13.1 kg of PO4-eq and 32.2 kg of SO2-eq. Simulations using grain from the Central-West region showed a greater climate change impact. Compared with the previous scenario, a 17% increase in climate change impact was found when simulating with soybeans produced in Central-West Brazil, whereas a 28% increase was observed when simulating with corn and soybeans from Central-West Brazil. Compared with the CON feeding program, the PFG and PFI programs reduced the potential environmental impact. Applying the PFG program mitigated the potential climate change impact and eutrophication by up to 4%, and acidification impact by up to 3% compared with the CON program. Making a further adjustment by feeding pigs according to their individual nutrient requirements mitigated the potential climate change impact by up to 6% and the potential eutrophication and acidification impact by up to 5% compared with the CON program. The greatest environmental gains associated with the adoption of precision feeding were observed when the diet combined soybeans from Central-West Brazil with corn produced in Southern Brazil. The results clearly show that precision feeding is an effective approach for improving the environmental sustainability of Brazilian pig production.

A model for global diversity in response to temperature change over geological time scales, with reference to planktic organisms.

PubMed

De Blasio, Fabio Vittorio; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Schweder, Tore; De Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben

2015-01-21

There are strong propositions in the literature that abiotic factors override biotic drivers of diversity on time scales of the fossil record. In order to study the interaction of biotic and abiotic forces on long term changes, we devise a spatio-temporal discrete-time Markov process model of macroevolution featuring population formation, speciation, migration and extinction, where populations are free to migrate. In our model, the extinction probability of these populations is controlled by latitudinally and temporally varying environment (temperature) and competition. Although our model is general enough to be applicable to disparate taxa, we explicitly address planktic organisms, which are assumed to disperse freely without barriers over the Earth's oceans. While rapid and drastic environmental changes tend to eliminate many species, generalists preferentially survive and hence leave generalist descendants. In other words, environmental fluctuations result in generalist descendants which are resilient to future environmental changes. Periods of stable or slow environmental changes lead to more specialist species and higher population numbers. Simulating Cenozoic diversity dynamics with both competition and the environmental component of our model produces diversity curves that reflect current empirical knowledge, which cannot be obtained with just one component. Our model predicts that the average temperature optimum at which planktic species thrive best has declined over the Neogene, following the trend of global average temperatures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quasispecies theory for evolution of modularity.

PubMed

Park, Jeong-Man; Niestemski, Liang Ren; Deem, Michael W

2015-01-01

Biological systems are modular, and this modularity evolves over time and in different environments. A number of observations have been made of increased modularity in biological systems under increased environmental pressure. We here develop a quasispecies theory for the dynamics of modularity in populations of these systems. We show how the steady-state fitness in a randomly changing environment can be computed. We derive a fluctuation dissipation relation for the rate of change of modularity and use it to derive a relationship between rate of environmental changes and rate of growth of modularity. We also find a principle of least action for the evolved modularity at steady state. Finally, we compare our predictions to simulations of protein evolution and find them to be consistent.

Visualization of simulated urban spaces: inferring parameterized generation of streets, parcels, and aerial imagery.

PubMed

Vanegas, Carlos A; Aliaga, Daniel G; Benes, Bedrich; Waddell, Paul

2009-01-01

Urban simulation models and their visualization are used to help regional planning agencies evaluate alternative transportation investments, land use regulations, and environmental protection policies. Typical urban simulations provide spatially distributed data about number of inhabitants, land prices, traffic, and other variables. In this article, we build on a synergy of urban simulation, urban visualization, and computer graphics to automatically infer an urban layout for any time step of the simulation sequence. In addition to standard visualization tools, our method gathers data of the original street network, parcels, and aerial imagery and uses the available simulation results to infer changes to the original urban layout and produce a new and plausible layout for the simulation results. In contrast with previous work, our approach automatically updates the layout based on changes in the simulation data and thus can scale to a large simulation over many years. The method in this article offers a substantial step forward in building integrated visualization and behavioral simulation systems for use in community visioning, planning, and policy analysis. We demonstrate our method on several real cases using a 200 GB database for a 16,300 km2 area surrounding Seattle.

Terrestrial Feedbacks Incorporated in Global Vegetation Models through Observed Trait-Environment Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodegom, P. V.

2015-12-01

Most global vegetation models used to evaluate climate change impacts rely on plant functional types to describe vegetation responses to environmental stresses. In a traditional set-up in which vegetation characteristics are considered constant within a vegetation type, the possibility to implement and infer feedback mechanisms are limited as feedback mechanisms will likely involve a changing expression of community trait values. Based on community assembly concepts, we implemented functional trait-environment relationships into a global dynamic vegetation model to quantitatively assess this feature. For the current climate, a different global vegetation distribution was calculated with and without the inclusion of trait variation, emphasizing the importance of feedbacks -in interaction with competitive processes- for the prevailing global patterns. These trait-environmental responses do, however, not necessarily imply adaptive responses of vegetation to changing conditions and may locally lead to a faster turnover in vegetation upon climate change. Indeed, when running climate projections, simulations with trait variation did not yield a more stable or resilient vegetation than those without. Through the different feedback expressions, global and regional carbon and water fluxes were -however- strongly altered. At a global scale, model projections suggest an increased productivity and hence an increased carbon sink in the next decades to come, when including trait variation. However, by the end of the century, a reduced carbon sink is projected. This effect is due to a downregulation of photosynthesis rates, particularly in the tropical regions, even when accounting for CO2-fertilization effects. Altogether, the various global model simulations suggest the critical importance of including vegetation functional responses to changing environmental conditions to grasp terrestrial feedback mechanisms at global scales in the light of climate change.

Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

PubMed

Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

2014-01-01

The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

Theory and Design Tools For Studies of Reactions to Abrupt Changes in Noise Exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fields, James M.; Ehrlich, Gary E.; Zador, Paul; Shepherd, Kevin P. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Study plans, a pre-tested questionnaire, a sample design evaluation tool, a community publicity monitoring plan, and a theoretical framework have been developed to support combined social/acoustical surveys of residents' reactions to an abrupt change in environmental noise, Secondary analyses of more than 20 previous surveys provide estimates of three parameters of a study simulation model; within individual variability, between study wave variability, and between neighborhood variability in response to community noise. The simulation model predicts the precision of the results from social surveys of reactions to noise, including changes in noise. When the study simulation model analyzed the population distribution, noise exposure environments and feasible noise measurement program at a proposed noise change survey site, it was concluded that the site could not yield sufficient precise estimates of human reaction model to justify conducting a survey. Additional secondary analyses determined that noise reactions are affected by the season of the social survey.

Trans-generational plasticity in response to immune challenge is constrained by heat stress.

PubMed

Roth, Olivia; Landis, Susanne H

2017-06-01

Trans-generational plasticity (TGP) is the adjustment of phenotypes to changing habitat conditions that persist longer than the individual lifetime. Fitness benefits (adaptive TGP) are expected upon matching parent-offspring environments. In a global change scenario, several performance-related environmental factors are changing simultaneously. This lowers the predictability of offspring environmental conditions, potentially hampering the benefits of TGP. For the first time, we here explore how the combination of an abiotic and a biotic environmental factor in the parental generation plays out as trans-generational effect in the offspring. We fully reciprocally exposed the parental generation of the pipefish Syngnathus typhle to an immune challenge and elevated temperatures simulating a naturally occurring heatwave. Upon mating and male pregnancy, offspring were kept in ambient or elevated temperature regimes combined with a heat-killed bacterial epitope treatment. Differential gene expression (immune genes and DNA- and histone-modification genes) suggests that the combined change of an abiotic and a biotic factor in the parental generation had interactive effects on offspring performance, the temperature effect dominated over the immune challenge impact. The benefits of certain parental environmental conditions on offspring performance did not sum up when abiotic and biotic factors were changed simultaneously supporting that available resources that can be allocated to phenotypic trans-generational effects are limited. Temperature is the master regulator of trans-generational phenotypic plasticity, which potentially implies a conflict in the allocation of resources towards several environmental factors. This asks for a reassessment of TGP as a short-term option to buffer environmental variation in the light of climate change.

Summary of hydrologic modeling for the Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williamson, Tanja N.; Lant, Jeremiah G.; Claggett, Peter; Nystrom, Elizabeth A.; Milly, Paul C.D.; Nelson, Hugh L.; Hoffman, Scott A.; Colarullo, Susan J.; Fischer, Jeffrey M.

2015-11-18

The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) is a decision support system for the nontidal part of the Delaware River Basin that provides a consistent and objective method of simulating streamflow under historical, forecasted, and managed conditions. In order to quantify the uncertainty associated with these simulations, however, streamflow and the associated hydroclimatic variables of potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and snow accumulation and snowmelt must be simulated and compared to long-term, daily observations from sites. This report details model development and optimization, statistical evaluation of simulations for 57 basins ranging from 2 to 930 km2 and 11.0 to 99.5 percent forested cover, and how this statistical evaluation of daily streamflow relates to simulating environmental changes and management decisions that are best examined at monthly time steps normalized over multiple decades. The decision support system provides a database of historical spatial and climatic data for simulating streamflow for 2001–11, in addition to land-cover and general circulation model forecasts that focus on 2030 and 2060. WATER integrates geospatial sampling of landscape characteristics, including topographic and soil properties, with a regionally calibrated hillslope-hydrology model, an impervious-surface model, and hydroclimatic models that were parameterized by using three hydrologic response units: forested, agricultural, and developed land cover. This integration enables the regional hydrologic modeling approach used in WATER without requiring site-specific optimization or those stationary conditions inferred when using a statistical model.

Computational approach to seasonal changes of living leaves.

PubMed

Tang, Ying; Wu, Dong-Yan; Fan, Jing

2013-01-01

This paper proposes a computational approach to seasonal changes of living leaves by combining the geometric deformations and textural color changes. The geometric model of a leaf is generated by triangulating the scanned image of a leaf using an optimized mesh. The triangular mesh of the leaf is deformed by the improved mass-spring model, while the deformation is controlled by setting different mass values for the vertices on the leaf model. In order to adaptively control the deformation of different regions in the leaf, the mass values of vertices are set to be in proportion to the pixels' intensities of the corresponding user-specified grayscale mask map. The geometric deformations as well as the textural color changes of a leaf are used to simulate the seasonal changing process of leaves based on Markov chain model with different environmental parameters including temperature, humidness, and time. Experimental results show that the method successfully simulates the seasonal changes of leaves.

Modeling Hydrodynamic Changes Due to Marine Hydrokinetic Power Production: Community Outreach and Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, S. C.; Jones, C.; Roberts, J.

2013-12-01

Power generation with marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbines is receiving growing global interest. Because of reasonable investment, maintenance, reliability, and environmental friendliness, this technology can contribute to national (and global) energy markets and is worthy of research investment. Furthermore, in remote areas, small-scale MHK energy from river, tidal, or ocean currents can provide a local power supply. The power-generating capacity of MHK turbines will depend, among other factors, upon the turbine type and number and the local flow velocities. There is an urgent need for deployment of practical, accessible tools and techniques to help the industry optimize MHK array layouts while establishing best sitting and design practices that minimize environmental impacts. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has modified the open-source flow and transport Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) to include the capability of simulating the effects of MHK power production. Upon removing energy (momentum) from the system, changes to the local and far-field flow dynamics can be estimated (e.g., flow speeds, tidal ranges, flushing rates, etc.). The effects of these changes on sediment dynamics and water quality can also be simulated using this model. Moreover, the model can be used to optimize MHK array layout to maximize power capture and minimize environmental impacts. Both a self-paced tutorial and in-depth training course have been developed as part of an outreach program to train academics, technology developers, and regulators in the use and application of this software. This work outlines SNL's outreach efforts using this modeling framework as applied to two specific sites where MHK turbines have been deployed.

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Land Configuration Changes Using an Integrated Hydrologic Model at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prucha, R. H.; Dayton, C. S.; Hawley, C. M.

2002-12-01

The Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in Golden, Colorado, a former Department of Energy nuclear weapons manufacturing facility, is currently undergoing closure. The natural semi-arid interaction between surface and subsurface flow at RFETS is complex and complicated by the industrial modifications to the flow system. Using a substantial site data set, a distributed parameter, fully-integrated hydrologic model was developed to assess the hydrologic impact of different hypothetical site closure configurations on the current flow system and to better understand the integrated hydrologic behavior of the system. An integrated model with this level of detail has not been previously developed in a semi-arid area, and a unique, but comprehensive, approach was required to calibrate and validate the model. Several hypothetical scenarios were developed to simulate hydrologic effects of modifying different aspects of the site. For example, some of the simulated modifications included regrading the current land surface, changing the existing surface channel network, removing subsurface trenches and gravity drain flow systems, installing a slurry wall and geotechnical cover, changing the current vegetative cover, and converting existing buildings and pavement to permeable soil areas. The integrated flow model was developed using a rigorous physically-based code so that realistic design parameters can simulate these changes. This code also permitted evaluation of changes to complex integrated hydrologic system responses that included channelized and overland flow, pond levels, unsaturated zone storage, groundwater heads and flow directions, and integrated water balances for key areas. Results generally show that channel flow offsite decreases substantially for different scenarios, while groundwater heads generally increase within the reconfigured industrial area most of which is then discharged as evapotranspiration. These changes have significant implications to site closure and operation.

Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Stressors in Mobile Bay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Quattrochi, Dale; Thom, Ronald; Woodruff, Dana; Judd, Chaeli; Ellis, Jean; Watson, Brian; Rodriquez, Hugo; Johnson, Hoyt

2009-01-01

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in Mobile Bay. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the Bay. Theses results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout Mobile Bay. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs.

Experimental and environmental factors affect spurious detection of ecological thresholds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Daily, Jonathan P.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Smith, David; Snyder, Craig D.

2012-01-01

Threshold detection methods are increasingly popular for assessing nonlinear responses to environmental change, but their statistical performance remains poorly understood. We simulated linear change in stream benthic macroinvertebrate communities and evaluated the performance of commonly used threshold detection methods based on model fitting (piecewise quantile regression [PQR]), data partitioning (nonparametric change point analysis [NCPA]), and a hybrid approach (significant zero crossings [SiZer]). We demonstrated that false detection of ecological thresholds (type I errors) and inferences on threshold locations are influenced by sample size, rate of linear change, and frequency of observations across the environmental gradient (i.e., sample-environment distribution, SED). However, the relative importance of these factors varied among statistical methods and between inference types. False detection rates were influenced primarily by user-selected parameters for PQR (τ) and SiZer (bandwidth) and secondarily by sample size (for PQR) and SED (for SiZer). In contrast, the location of reported thresholds was influenced primarily by SED. Bootstrapped confidence intervals for NCPA threshold locations revealed strong correspondence to SED. We conclude that the choice of statistical methods for threshold detection should be matched to experimental and environmental constraints to minimize false detection rates and avoid spurious inferences regarding threshold location.

Penetration of hydrogen-based energy system and its potential for causing global environmental change: Scoping risk analysis based on life cycle thinking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kikuchi, Ryunosuke

2006-03-15

A hydrogen-based economy seems superficially to be environmentally friendly, and many people have worked toward its realization. Today hydrogen is mainly produced by decarbonizing fossil fuels (e.g. natural gas), and in the future decarbonization of both fossil fuels and biomass will play a leading role in the production of hydrogen. The main purpose of this paper is to suggest the identification of potential environmental risks in terms of 'life cycle thinking' (which considers all aspects from production to utilization) with regard to the hydrogen-based economy to come. Hydrogen production by decarbonization results in CO{sub 2} emissions. The final destination ofmore » the recovered CO{sub 2} is uncertain. Furthermore, there is a possibility that hydrogen molecules will escape to the atmosphere, posing risks that could occasion global environmental changes such as depletion of stratospheric ozone, temperature change in the stratosphere and change of the hydrides cycle through global vaporization. Based on the results of simulation, requirements regarding the following items are proposed to minimize potential risks: hydrogen source, production and storage loss.« less

The Berkeley Environmental Simulation Laboratory: Its Use In Environmental Impact Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Appleyard, Donald; And Others

An environmental simulation laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley, is testing the adequacy of different techniques for simulating environmental experiences. Various levels of realism, with various costs, are available in different presentation modes. The simulations can aid in communication about and the resolution of environmental…

Simulating long-term impacts of cover crops and climate change on crop production and environmental outcomes in the midwestern United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

It is critical to evaluate conservation practices that protect soil and water resources from climate change in the Midwestern United States, a region that produces one-quarter of the world’s soybeans and one-third of the world’s maize. An over-winter cover crop in a maize-soybean rotation offers mul...

Energy analysis of cool, medium, and dark roofs on residential buildings in the U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, Michael A.

This study reports an energy analysis of cool, medium, and dark roofs on residential buildings in the U.S. Three analyses were undertaken in this study: energy consumption, economic analysis, and an environmental analysis. The energy consumption reports the electricity and natural gas consumption of the simulations. The economic analysis uses tools such as simple payback period (SPP) and net present value (NPV) to determine the profitability of the cool roof and the medium roof. The variable change for each simulation model was the roof color. The default color was a dark roof and the results were focused on the changes produced by the cool roof and the medium roof. The environmental analysis uses CO2 emissions to assess the environmental impact of the cool roof and the medium roof. The analysis uses the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) EnergyPlus software to produce simulations of a typical, two-story residential home in the U.S. The building details of the typical, two-story U.S. residential home and the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) building code standards used are discussed in this study. This study indicates that, when material and labor costs are. assessed, the cool roof and the medium roof do not yield a SPP less than 10 years. Furthermore, the NPV results assess that neither the cool roof nor the medium roof are a profitable investment in any climate zone in the U.S. The environmental analysis demonstrates that both the cool roof and the medium roof have a positive impact in warmer climates by reducing the CO2 emissions as much as 264 kg and 129 kg, respectively.

Monte Carlo simulation of quantum Zeno effect in the brain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiev, Danko

2015-12-01

Environmental decoherence appears to be the biggest obstacle for successful construction of quantum mind theories. Nevertheless, the quantum physicist Henry Stapp promoted the view that the mind could utilize quantum Zeno effect to influence brain dynamics and that the efficacy of such mental efforts would not be undermined by environmental decoherence of the brain. To address the physical plausibility of Stapp's claim, we modeled the brain using quantum tunneling of an electron in a multiple-well structure such as the voltage sensor in neuronal ion channels and performed Monte Carlo simulations of quantum Zeno effect exerted by the mind upon the brain in the presence or absence of environmental decoherence. The simulations unambiguously showed that the quantum Zeno effect breaks down for timescales greater than the brain decoherence time. To generalize the Monte Carlo simulation results for any n-level quantum system, we further analyzed the change of brain entropy due to the mind probing actions and proved a theorem according to which local projections cannot decrease the von Neumann entropy of the unconditional brain density matrix. The latter theorem establishes that Stapp's model is physically implausible but leaves a door open for future development of quantum mind theories provided the brain has a decoherence-free subspace.

Integrating GIS and ABM to Explore Spatiotemporal Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, M.; Jiang, Y.; Yang, C.

2013-12-01

Agent-based modeling as a methodology for the bottom-up exploration with the account of adaptive behavior and heterogeneity of system components can help discover the development and pattern of the complex social and environmental system. However, ABM is a computationally intensive process especially when the number of system components becomes large and the agent-agent/agent-environmental interaction is modeled very complex. Most of traditional ABM frameworks developed based on CPU do not have a satisfying computing capacity. To address the problem and as the emergence of advanced techniques, GPU computing with CUDA can provide powerful parallel structure to enable the complex simulation of spatiotemporal dynamics. In this study, we first develop a GPU-based ABM system. Secondly, in order to visualize the dynamics generated from the movement of agent and the change of agent/environmental attributes during the simulation, we integrate GIS into the ABM system. Advanced geovisualization technologies can be utilized for representing the spatiotemporal change events, such as proper 2D/3D maps with state-of-the-art symbols, space-time cube and multiple layers each of which presents pattern in one time-stamp, etc. Thirdly, visual analytics which include interactive tools (e.g. grouping, filtering, linking, etc.) is included in our ABM-GIS system to help users conduct real-time data exploration during the progress of simulation. Analysis like flow analysis and spatial cluster analysis can be integrated according to the geographical problem we want to explore.

[Direct human DNA damage by unfavorable environmental and climatic factors].

PubMed

Doroshtuk, N A; Postnov, A Iu; Doroshtuk, A D; Khasanova, E B; Konovalova, N V; Khesuani, Iu D; Osiaeva, M K; Rodnenkov, O V; Chazova, I E

2014-01-01

To study the impact of simulated climatic conditions of the 2010 summer in Moscow on the telomere repeats of chromosomes in human blood cells. The climatic conditions of July-August 2010 in Moscow were simulated at the Medical Technical Complex, Institute of Biomedical Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences. The relative length of the telomeric repeats of blood cell chromosomes from 6 apparently healthy volunteers was measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. These conditions were ascertained to lead to a statistically significant decline in the length of telomere repeats in the terminal portions of chromosomes by 15%. Environmental changes and abnormal temperature rises may result in oxidative stress accompanied by telomere shortening, which can be, in turn, a factor of premature aging.

Effects of Clonal Reproduction on Evolutionary Lag and Evolutionary Rescue.

PubMed

Orive, Maria E; Barfield, Michael; Fernandez, Carlos; Holt, Robert D

2017-10-01

Evolutionary lag-the difference between mean and optimal phenotype in the current environment-is of keen interest in light of rapid environmental change. Many ecologically important organisms have life histories that include stage structure and both sexual and clonal reproduction, yet how stage structure and clonality interplay to govern a population's rate of evolution and evolutionary lag is unknown. Effects of clonal reproduction on mean phenotype partition into two portions: one that is phenotype dependent, and another that is genotype dependent. This partitioning is governed by the association between the nonadditive genetic plus random environmental component of phenotype of clonal offspring and their parents. While clonality slows phenotypic evolution toward an optimum, it can dramatically increase population survival after a sudden step change in optimal phenotype. Increased adult survival slows phenotypic evolution but facilitates population survival after a step change; this positive effect can, however, be lost given survival-fecundity trade-offs. Simulations indicate that the benefits of increased clonality under environmental change greatly depend on the nature of that change: increasing population persistence under a step change while decreasing population persistence under a continuous linear change requiring de novo variation. The impact of clonality on the probability of persistence for species in a changing world is thus inexorably linked to the temporal texture of the change they experience.

Study report on combining diagnostic and therapeutic considerations with subsystem and whole-body simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Furukawa, S.

1975-01-01

Current applications of simulation models for clinical research described included tilt model simulation of orthostatic intolerance with hemorrhage, and modeling long term circulatory circulation. Current capabilities include: (1) simulation of analogous pathological states and effects of abnormal environmental stressors by the manipulation of system variables and changing inputs in various sequences; (2) simulation of time courses of responses of controlled variables by the altered inputs and their relationships; (3) simulation of physiological responses of treatment such as isotonic saline transfusion; (4) simulation of the effectiveness of a treatment as well as the effects of complication superimposed on an existing pathological state; and (5) comparison of the effectiveness of various treatments/countermeasures for a given pathological state. The feasibility of applying simulation models to diagnostic and therapeutic research problems is assessed.

The dominant role of climate change in determining changes in evapotranspiration in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2012

PubMed Central

Bai, Jie; Li, Longhui

2017-01-01

The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China has experienced significant land cover and climate change since the beginning of the 21st century. However, a reasonable simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and its response to environmental factors are still unclear. For this study, to simulate ET and its response to climate and land cover change in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2012, we used the Common Land Model (CoLM) by adding irrigation effects for cropland and modifying root distributions and the root water uptake process for shrubland. Our results indicate that mean annual ET from 2001 to 2012 was 131.22 (±21.78) mm/year and demonstrated no significant trend (p = 0.12). The model simulation also indicates that climate change was capable of explaining 99% of inter-annual ET variability; land cover change only explained 1%. Land cover change caused by the expansion of croplands increased annual ET by 1.11 mm while climate change, mainly resulting from both decreased temperature and precipitation, reduced ET by 21.90 mm. Our results imply that climate change plays a dominant role in determining changes in ET, and also highlight the need for appropriate land-use strategies for managing water sources in dryland ecosystems within Xinjiang. PMID:28841645

The dominant role of climate change in determining changes in evapotranspiration in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2012.

PubMed

Yuan, Xiuliang; Bai, Jie; Li, Longhui; Kurban, Alishir; De Maeyer, Philippe

2017-01-01

The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China has experienced significant land cover and climate change since the beginning of the 21st century. However, a reasonable simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and its response to environmental factors are still unclear. For this study, to simulate ET and its response to climate and land cover change in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2012, we used the Common Land Model (CoLM) by adding irrigation effects for cropland and modifying root distributions and the root water uptake process for shrubland. Our results indicate that mean annual ET from 2001 to 2012 was 131.22 (±21.78) mm/year and demonstrated no significant trend (p = 0.12). The model simulation also indicates that climate change was capable of explaining 99% of inter-annual ET variability; land cover change only explained 1%. Land cover change caused by the expansion of croplands increased annual ET by 1.11 mm while climate change, mainly resulting from both decreased temperature and precipitation, reduced ET by 21.90 mm. Our results imply that climate change plays a dominant role in determining changes in ET, and also highlight the need for appropriate land-use strategies for managing water sources in dryland ecosystems within Xinjiang.

Gap Models as Tools for Sustainable Development under Environmental Changes in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Wang, B.; Brazhnik, K.; Armstrong, A. H.; Foster, A.

2017-12-01

Agent-based models of complex systems or as used in this review, Individual-based Models (IBMs), emerged in the 1960s and early 1970s, across diverse disciplines from astronomy to zoology. IBMs arose from a deeply embedded ecological tradition of understanding the dynamics of ecosystems from a "bottom-up" accounting of the interactions of the parts. In this case, individual trees are principal among the parts. Because they are computationally demanding, these models have prospered as the power of digital computers has increased exponentially over the decades following the 1970s. Forest IBMs are no longer computationally bound from developing continental- or global-scale simulations of responses of forests to climate and other changes. Gap models simulate the changes in forests by simulating the birth, growth and death of each individual tree on small plots of land that in summation comprise a forest (or set of sample plots on a forested landscape or region). Currently, gap models have grown from continental-scale and even global-scale applications to assess the potential consequences of climate change on natural forests. These predictions are valuable in the planning and anticipatory decision-making needed to sustainably manage a vast region such as Northern Eurasia. Modifications to the models have enabled simulation of disturbances including fire, insect outbreak and harvest. These disturbances have significant exogenous drivers, notably weather variables, but their effects are also a function of the endogenous conditions involving the structure of forest itself. This feedback between the forest and its environment can in some cases produce hysteresis and multiple-stable operating-regimes for forests. Such responses, often characterized as "tipping points" could play a significant role in increasing risk under environmental change, notably global warming. Such dynamics in a management context imply regional systems that could be "unforgiving" of management mistakes.

Hydrologic-energy balance constraints on the Holocene lake-level history of lake Titicaca, South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, H. D.; Dunbar, R. B.

2004-09-01

A basin-scale hydrologic-energy balance model that integrates modern climatological, hydrological, and hypsographic observations was developed for the modern Lake Titicaca watershed (northern Altiplano, South America) and operated under variable conditions to understand controls on post-glacial changes in lake level. The model simulates changes in five environmental variables (air temperature, cloud fraction, precipitation, relative humidity, and land surface albedo). Relatively small changes in three meteorological variables (mean annual precipitation, temperature, and/or cloud fraction) explain the large mid-Holocene lake-level decrease (˜85 m) inferred from seismic reflection profiling and supported by sediment-based paleoproxies from lake sediments. Climatic controls that shape the present-day Altiplano and the sediment-based record of Holocene lake-level change are combined to interpret model-derived lake-level simulations in terms of changes in the mean state of ENSO and its impact on moisture transport to the Altiplano.

HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

40 CFR 86.163-00 - Spot check correlation procedures for vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. 86... tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. This section is applicable for vehicles which are tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell...

40 CFR 86.163-00 - Spot check correlation procedures for vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. 86... tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. This section is applicable for vehicles which are tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell...

40 CFR 86.163-00 - Spot check correlation procedures for vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. 86... tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. This section is applicable for vehicles which are tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell...

40 CFR 86.163-00 - Spot check correlation procedures for vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. 86... tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. This section is applicable for vehicles which are tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell...

40 CFR 86.163-00 - Spot check correlation procedures for vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... vehicles tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. 86... tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell for air conditioning emission testing. This section is applicable for vehicles which are tested using a simulation of the environmental test cell...

Coupled hydrologic and land use change models for decision making on land and water resources in the Upper Blue Nile basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yalew, Seleshi; van der Zaag, Pieter; Mul, Marloes; Uhlenbrook, Stefan; Teferi, Ermias; van Griensven, Ann; van der Kwast, Johannes

2013-04-01

Hydrology of a basin, alongside climate change, is well documented to impact and to be impacted by land use/land cover change processes. The need to understand the impacts of hydrology on land use change and vice- versa cannot be overstated especially in basins such as the Upper Blue Nile in Ethiopia, where the vast majority of farmers depend on rain-fed agriculture. A slight fluctuation in rainy seasons or an increase or decrease in magnitude of precipitation can easily trigger drought or flooding. On the other hand, ever growing population and emerging economic development, among others, is likely to continually alter land use/land cover change, thereby affecting hydrological processes. With the intention of identifying and analyzing interactions and future scenarios of the hydrology and land use/land cover, we carried out a case study on a meso-scale catchment, in the Upper Blue Nile basin. A land use model using SITE (SImulation of Terrestrial Environments) was built for analyzing land use trends from aerial land cover photographs of 1957 and simulate until 2009 based on socio-economic as well as biophysical factors. Major land use drivers in the catchment were identified and used as input to the land use model. Separate land use maps were produced using Landsat images of 1972, 1986, 1994 and 2009 for historical calibration of the land use model. By the same token, a hydrological model for the same catchment was built using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. After calibration of the two independent models, they were loosely coupled for analyzing the changes in either of the models and impacts on the other. Among other details, the coupled model performed better in identifying limiting factors from both the hydrology as well as from the land use perspectives. For instance, the simulation of the uncoupled land use model alone (without inputs from SWAT on the water budget of each land use parcel) continually considered a land use type such as a wet land/marsh land, simply as a wetland until the simulation period finishes. The wetland or the marsh land, which is not crop friendly in the location, does not get allocated to any other land use such as for certain crop types or settlement, because the land use model cannot tell how much water is added to or drained from each parcel every season. However, the simulation feedback from the coupled hydrological model shows that certain wetland/marsh land parcels, in fact, hold less and less water or even dry up during the simulation period, thereby putting themselves as a good candidate to be picked by the land use model in a next time step and to be allocated to other land use types. The same way, a measure in the land use aspect, which considers socio-economic as well as biophysical driving forces of in the catchment, shows changes in runoff and sedimentation levels in SWAT model outputs. The results of a future scenario considering the continuing population growth projects that about 35% of the wetland dries up and gets converted to cultivation by 2020. This study emphasizes the importance of identifying possible impacts of the future hydrology on other components of the socio-environmental systems and contrariwise during environmental decision making, especially in areas where a relatively small change may have large impacts (such flood and/or drought prone basins as the Nile). The study also demonstrates a sound methodology for assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology and vice-versa by dynamically exchanging data through feedback mechanisms (coupling socio-environmental and hydrological models) which lead to a better understanding of socio-environmental problems. Keywords: Coupling, socio-environment, Nile, land use models, hydrological models

Environmental and internal controls of tropical cyclone intensity change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desflots, Melicie

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change is governed by internal dynamics and environmental conditions. This study aims to gain a better understanding of the physical mechanisms responsible for TC intensity changes with a particular focus to those related to the vertical wind shear and the impact of sea spray on the hurricane boundary layer, by using high resolution, full physics numerical simulations. The coupled model consists of three components: the non-hydrostatic, 5th generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR mesoscale model (MM5), the NOAA/NCEP WAVEWATCH III (WW3) ocean surface wave model, and the WHOI three-dimensional upper ocean circulation model (3DPWP). Sea spray parameterizations (SSP) were developed at NOAA/ESRL, modified by the author and introduced in uncoupled and coupled simulations. The 0.5 km grid resolution MM5 simulation of Hurricane Lili showed a rapid intensification associated with a contracting eyewall. Hurricane Lili weakened in a 5-10 m s-1 vertical wind shear environment. The simulated storm experienced wind shear direction normal to the storm motion, which produced a strong wavenumber one rainfall asymmetry in the downshear-left quadrant of the storm. The increasing vertical wind shear induced a vertical tilt of the vortex with a time lag of 5-6 hours after the wavenumber one rainfall asymmetry was first observed in the model simulation. Other factors controlling intensity and intensity change in tropical cyclones are the air-sea fluxes. Recent studies have shown that the momentum exchange coefficient levels off at high wind speed. However, the behavior of the exchange coefficient for enthalpy flux in high wind and the potential impact of sea spray on it is still uncertain. The current SSP are closely tied to wind speed and overestimate the mediated heat fluxes by sea spray in the hurricane boundary layer. As the sea spray generation depends on wind speed and the variable wave state, a new SSP based on the surface wave energy dissipation (WED) is introduced in the coupled model. In the coupled simulations, the WED is used to quantify the amount of wave breaking related to the generation of spray. The SSP coupled to the waves offers an improvement compared to the wind dependent SSP.

In situ carbon turnover dynamics and the role of soil microorganisms therein: a climate warming study in an Alpine ecosystem.

PubMed

Djukic, Ika; Zehetner, Franz; Watzinger, Andrea; Horacek, Micha; Gerzabek, Martin H

2013-01-01

Litter decomposition represents one of the largest fluxes in the global terrestrial carbon cycle. The aim of this study was to improve our understanding of the factors governing decomposition in alpine ecosystems and how their responses to changing environmental conditions change over time. Our study area stretches over an elevation gradient of 1000 m on the Hochschwab massif in the Northern Limestone Alps of Austria. We used high-to-low elevation soil translocation to simulate the combined effects of changing climatic conditions, shifting vegetation zones, and altered snow cover regimes. In original and translocated soils, we conducted in situ decomposition experiments with maize litter and studied carbon turnover dynamics as well as temporal response patterns of the pathways of carbon during microbial decomposition over a 2-year incubation period. A simulated mean annual soil warming (through down-slope translocation) of 1.5 and 2.7 °C, respectively, resulted in a significantly accelerated turnover of added maize carbon. Changes in substrate quantity and quality in the course of the decomposition appeared to have less influence on the microbial community composition and its substrate utilization than the prevailing environmental/site conditions, to which the microbial community adapted quickly upon change. In general, microbial community composition and function significantly affected substrate decomposition rates only in the later stage of decomposition when the differentiation in substrate use among the microbial groups became more evident. Our study demonstrated that rising temperatures in alpine ecosystems may accelerate decomposition of litter carbon and also lead to a rapid adaptation of the microbial communities to the new environmental conditions. © 2012 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combination of first-principles molecular dynamics and XANES simulations for LiCoO2-electrolyte interfacial reactions in a lithium-ion battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamura, Tomoyuki; Kohyama, Masanori; Ogata, Shuji

2017-07-01

We performed a first-principles molecular dynamics (FPMD) simulation of the interfacial reactions between a LiCoO2 electrode and a liquid ethylene carbonate (EC) electrolyte. For configurations during the FPMD simulation, we also performed first-principles Co K-edge x-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) simulations, which can properly reproduce the bulk and surface spectra of LiCoO2. We observed strong absorption of an EC molecule on the LiCoO2 {110} surface, involving ring opening of the molecule, bond formation between oxygen atoms in the molecule and surface Co ions, and emission of one surface Li ion, while all the surface Co ions remain Co3 +. The surface Co ions having the bond with an oxygen atom in the molecule showed remarkable changes in simulated K-edge spectra which are similar to those of the in situ observation under electrolyte soaking [D. Takamatsu et al., Angew. Chem., Int. Ed. 51, 11597 (2012), 10.1002/anie.201203910]. Thus, the local environmental changes of surface Co ions due to the reactions with an EC molecule can explain the experimental spectrum changes.

Climate change effects on vegetation in the Pacific Northwest: a review and synthesis of the scientific literature and simulation model projections

Treesearch

David W. Peterson; Becky K. Kerns; Erich Kyle Dodson

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to review scientifi c knowledge and model projections on vegetation vulnerability to climatic and other environmental changes in the Pacifi c Northwest, with emphasis on fi ve major biome types: subalpine forests and alpine meadows, maritime coniferous forests, dry coniferous forests, savannas and woodlands (oak and juniper), and interior...

Contribution of Crop Models to Adaptation in Wheat.

PubMed

Chenu, Karine; Porter, John Roy; Martre, Pierre; Basso, Bruno; Chapman, Scott Cameron; Ewert, Frank; Bindi, Marco; Asseng, Senthold

2017-06-01

With world population growing quickly, agriculture needs to produce more with fewer inputs while being environmentally friendly. In a context of changing environments, crop models are useful tools to simulate crop yields. Wheat (Triticum spp.) crop models have been evolving since the 1960s to translate processes related to crop growth and development into mathematical equations. These have been used over decades for agronomic purposes, and have more recently incorporated advances in the modeling of environmental footprints, biotic constraints, trait and gene effects, climate change impact, and the upscaling of global change impacts. This review outlines the potential and limitations of modern wheat crop models in assisting agronomists, breeders, and policymakers to address the current and future challenges facing agriculture. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

DOE PAGES

Winterhalter, Wade E.

2011-09-01

Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I foundmore » that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.« less

Robustness of self-organised systems to changes in behaviour: an example from real and simulated self-organised snail aggregations.

PubMed

Stafford, Richard; Williams, Gray A; Davies, Mark S

2011-01-01

Group or population level self-organised systems comprise many individuals displaying group-level emergent properties. Current theory indicates that individual-level behaviours have an effect on the final group-level behaviour; that is, self-organised systems are sensitive to small changes in individual behaviour. Here we examine a self-organised behaviour in relation to environmentally-driven individual-level changes in behaviour, using both natural systems and computer simulations. We demonstrate that aggregations of intertidal snails slightly decrease in size when, owing to hotter and more desiccating conditions, individuals forage for shorter periods--a seemingly non-adaptive behaviour for the snails since aggregation reduces desiccation stress. This decrease, however, only occurs in simple experimental systems (and simulations of these systems). When studied in their natural and more complex environment, and simulations of such an environment, using the same reduced foraging time, no difference in aggregation behaviour was found between hot and cool days. These results give an indication of how robust self-organised systems are to changes in individual-level behaviour. The complexity of the natural environment and the interactions of individuals with this environment, therefore, can result in self-organised systems being more resilient to individual-level changes than previously assumed.

Linking 1D coastal ocean modelling to environmental management: an ensemble approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mussap, Giulia; Zavatarelli, Marco; Pinardi, Nadia

2017-12-01

The use of a one-dimensional interdisciplinary numerical model of the coastal ocean as a tool contributing to the formulation of ecosystem-based management (EBM) is explored. The focus is on the definition of an experimental design based on ensemble simulations, integrating variability linked to scenarios (characterised by changes in the system forcing) and to the concurrent variation of selected, and poorly constrained, model parameters. The modelling system used was previously specifically designed for the use in "data-rich" areas, so that horizontal dynamics can be resolved by a diagnostic approach and external inputs can be parameterised by nudging schemes properly calibrated. Ensembles determined by changes in the simulated environmental (physical and biogeochemical) dynamics, under joint forcing and parameterisation variations, highlight the uncertainties associated to the application of specific scenarios that are relevant to EBM, providing an assessment of the reliability of the predicted changes. The work has been carried out by implementing the coupled modelling system BFM-POM1D in an area of Gulf of Trieste (northern Adriatic Sea), considered homogeneous from the point of view of hydrological properties, and forcing it by changing climatic (warming) and anthropogenic (reduction of the land-based nutrient input) pressure. Model parameters affected by considerable uncertainties (due to the lack of relevant observations) were varied jointly with the scenarios of change. The resulting large set of ensemble simulations provided a general estimation of the model uncertainties related to the joint variation of pressures and model parameters. The information of the model result variability aimed at conveying efficiently and comprehensibly the information on the uncertainties/reliability of the model results to non-technical EBM planners and stakeholders, in order to have the model-based information effectively contributing to EBM.

Teaching undergraduate nursing students about environmental health: addressing public health issues through simulation.

PubMed

Stanley, Mary Jo; Rojas, Deb

2014-01-01

Schools of nursing are challenged to find clinical placements in public health settings. Use of simulation can address situations unique to public health, with attention to specific concerns, such as environmental health. Environmental health is an integral part of public health nursing and is a standard of professional practice. Current simulations focus on acute care situations, offering limited scenarios with a public health perspective and excluding environmental health. This study's simulation scenario was created to enhance nursing students' understanding of public health concepts within an environmental health context. Outcomes from the simulation include the need for integration of environmental issues in public health teaching. Students stated that this scenario provided a broader understanding of the environmental influences that can affect the client's and family's health. This scenario fills a void in simulation content, while providing an interactive teaching and learning strategy to help students to apply knowledge to practice. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong

2014-01-19

Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC – Environmental Policy Indicatormore » Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM – Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.« less

Glomed-Land: a research project to study the effect of global change in contrasted mediterranean landscapes and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Sinoga, José D.; Hueso-González, Paloma; León-Gross, Teodoro; Molina, Julián; Remond, Ricardo; Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.

2017-04-01

The Global Change is referred to the occurrence of great environmental changes associated to climatic fluctuations and human activity as wel (Vitousek et al., 1997; Steffen et al., 2004; Dearing et al., 2006). García-Ruiz et al. (2015) indicated that the relief varies very slowly in time while the changes in vegetation, overland flow generation and erosion occurred very rapidly and conditioned by their interactions and the climate variability as well. The GLOMED-LAND Project has its bases and scientific justification on the combination of the experience of the members of the research team, from one side, in the analysis of the dynamics and eco-geomorphological and climatic processes in Mediterranean environments of southern Spain, in the context of current Global change, and from another, in the study, development and application of new tools for simulation and modelling of future scenarios, and finally, in the analysis of the impact that society exercises the broadcast media related to the problem derived from the awareness and adaptation to Global change. Climate change (CC), directly affects the elements that compose the landscape. Both in the analysis of future climate scenarios raised by the IPCC (2013), such as the regionalisation carried out by AEMET, the Mediterranean region and, especially, the South of Spain, - with its defined longitudinal pluviometric gradient - configured as one of the areas of greatest uncertainty, reflected in a higher concentration of temporal rainfall, and even a reduction in the rainfall. Faced with this situation, the CC can modify the current landscape setting, with all the environmental impacts that this would entail for the terrestrial ecosystems and the systemic services rendered to the society. The combination of different work scales allows the analysis of the dynamics of the landscape and the consequence of its modifications on, hydro-geomorphological processes, closely related to degradation processes that can affect the abiotic, biotic, and human elements of the landscape (soil, plant cover, crops, water resources, etc.). Simulation and modelling is now an essential tool in the study of landscape and of the effects of Climate Change, not only towards the future through scenarios and simulation modelling, also to the past, to better understand what causes have led to effects, and to what extent. In this work we aim to create a set of software tools for analysis, modelling and simulation of the effects of Global change on two Mediterranean catchments: the middle and upper basin of the Grande River and the high Benamargosa River, both of them in the Province of Málaga (South of Spain). This will allow a full analysis, monitor, and predict those effects at local scale. Finally, we analyse the role that the impact of Global Change issues has had from the media point of view and what tendency can follow. References Dearing, J. et al. (2006): «Human-environment interactions: towards synthesis and simulation». Regional Environmental Change, n° 6, 115-123. García-Ruiz et al. (2015): «Los efectos geoecológicos del cambio global en el Pirineo central español: una revisión a distintas escalas espaciales y temporales». Pirineos, 170. Steffen, W. et al. (2004): Global Change and the Earth System: a planet under pressure. Executive summary. The IGBP Global Change Series. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelburg, 44 pp., New York. Vitousek, P.M. et al. (1997): «Human domination of earth's ecosystems». Science, n° 277, 494-499.

Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects on nonmetallic materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Changes in functional properties of a broad spectrum of nonmetallic materials as a function of environment and exposure time were evaluated. Models for predicting long-term material performance are discussed. A literature search on specific materials in the space and simulated space environment was carried out and evaluated.

Development of a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tool in R for parametrization of the APEX model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hydrologic models are used to simulate the responses of agricultural systems to different inputs and management strategies to identify alternative management practices to cope up with future climate and/or geophysical changes. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) is a model develope...

CROSS-DISCIPLINARY PHYSICS AND RELATED AREAS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: Environmental Impacts on Spiking Properties in Hodgkin-Huxley Neuron with Direct Current Stimulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Chang-Qing; Zhao, Tong-Jun; Zhan, Yong; Zhang, Su-Hua; Liu, Hui; Zhang, Yu-Hong

2009-11-01

Based on the well accepted Hodgkin-Huxley neuron model, the neuronal intrinsic excitability is studied when the neuron is subject to varying environmental temperatures, the typical impact for its regulating ways. With computer simulation, it is found that altering environmental temperature can improve or inhibit the neuronal intrinsic excitability so as to influence the neuronal spiking properties. The impacts from environmental factors can be understood that the neuronal spiking threshold is essentially influenced by the fluctuations in the environment. With the environmental temperature varying, burst spiking is realized for the neuronal membrane voltage because of the environment-dependent spiking threshold. This burst induced by changes in spiking threshold is different from that excited by input currents or other stimulus.

Organizational Adaptative Behavior: The Complex Perspective of Individuals-Tasks Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jiang; Sun, Duoyong; Hu, Bin; Zhang, Yu

Organizations with different organizational structures have different organizational behaviors when responding environmental changes. In this paper, we use a computational model to examine organizational adaptation on four dimensions: Agility, Robustness, Resilience, and Survivability. We analyze the dynamics of organizational adaptation by a simulation study from a complex perspective of the interaction between tasks and individuals in a sales enterprise. The simulation studies in different scenarios show that more flexible communication between employees and less hierarchy level with the suitable centralization can improve organizational adaptation.

The response of a simulated Mesoscale Convective System to increased aerosol pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clavner, Michal

This work focuses on the impacts of aerosols on the total precipitation amount, rates and spatial distribution of precipitation produced by a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), as well as the characteristics of a derecho event. Past studies have shown that the impacts on MCS-produced precipitation to changes in aerosol concentration are strongly dependent on environmental conditions, primarily humidity and environmental wind shear. Changes in aerosol concentrations were found to alter MCS-precipitation production directly by modifying precipitation processes and indirectly by affecting the efficiency of the storm's self-propagation. Observational and numerical studies have been conducted that have examined the dynamics responsible for the generation of widespread convectively-induced windstorms, primarily focusing on environmental conditions and the MCS features that generate a derecho event. While the sensitivity of the formation of bow-echoes, the radar signature associated with derecho events, to changes in microphysics has been examined, a study on a derecho-producing MCS characteristics to aerosol concentrations has not. In this study different aerosol concentrations and their effects on precipitation and a derecho produced by an MCS are examined by simulating the 8 May 2009 "Super-Derecho" MCS. The MCS was simulated using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with sophisticated aerosol and microphysical parameterizations. Three simulations were conducted that varied in their initial aerosol concentration, distribution and hygroscopicity as determined by their emission sources. The first simulation contained aerosols from only natural sources and the second with aerosols sourced from both natural and anthropogenic emissions The third simulation contained the same aerosol distribution as in the second simulation, however multiplied by a factor of 5 in order to represent a highly polluted scenario. In all three of the simulations aerosol concentrations were derived from the output of GEOS-Chem, a 3D chemical transport model. In the simulated MCS, the formation and propagation of the storm was not fundamentally modified by changes in the aerosol concentration, and the total MCS-produced precipitation was not significantly affected. However, the precipitation distribution (convective vs stratiform) and derecho-strength surface wind characteristics did vary among the simulations. The more polluted simulations exhibited higher precipitation rates, higher bulk precipitation efficiency, a larger area with heavier convective precipitation and a smaller area with lighter stratiform precipitation. These differences arose because aerosol pollution enhanced precipitation in the convective region while suppressing precipitation from the stratiform-anvil. Higher aerosol concentrations led to the invigoration of convective updrafts which supported the formation of larger rain drops, and lofted more liquid cloud mass to higher levels, thereby increasing both collision-coalescence and riming processes. The presence of greater aerosol concentrations in the free troposphere, as well as in the boundary layer, reduced both collision-coalescence and riming within the stratiform-anvil region. As a consequence, the more polluted simulations produced the smallest precipitation from the MCS stratiform-anvil region. In order to understand the impact of changes in aerosol concentrations on the derecho characteristics, the dynamical processes which produced the strong surface wind were determined by performing back-trajectory analysis during different periods of the simulated storm. The analysis showed that two main air flows contributed to the formation of the derecho winds at the surface; a rear-inflow jet and an up-down downdraft associated with a mesovortex at the gust font. The changes in aerosol concentrations impacted the simulated derecho event by altering the main flow contributing to the formation of the derecho winds though the amount of melting and evaporation of hydrometeors. Earlier in the storm, changes in melting and evaporation altered the intensity of the storm-produced cold pool. This, in turn, modified the balance between the horizontal relative vertical vorticity generated by the cold pool and that of the low-level environmental shear. The smaller hail and rain hydrometeors in the cleaner simulation exhibited higher melting and evaporation rates due to the larger surface area, which contributed to the formation of a stronger cold pool and led to the tilting of the convective updraft upshear. This, in turn, shifted the flow associated with the derecho event to be predominantly from a Rear-Inflow Jet (RIJ). An increase in aerosol concentration led to a weaker cold pool and therefore an upright convective updraft which promoted the formation of a stronger mesovortex, and subsequently shifting the flow to be predominantly from strong downdrafts following an up-down downdraft (UDD) trajectory. The shift from a RIJ flow to a UDD led to stronger surface winds over a smaller area. As the storm matured, the derecho winds were found to be associated with the formation of a mesovortex at the gust front. At this time, a non-linear trend between aerosol concentrations to derecho intensity was apparent and was attributed to the non-linear trend in mesovortex strength. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Macroscopic Theory for Evolving Biological Systems Akin to Thermodynamics.

PubMed

Kaneko, Kunihiko; Furusawa, Chikara

2018-05-20

We present a macroscopic theory to characterize the plasticity, robustness, and evolvability of biological responses and their fluctuations. First, linear approximation in intracellular reaction dynamics is used to demonstrate proportional changes in the expression of all cellular components in response to a given environmental stress, with the proportion coefficient determined by the change in growth rate as a consequence of the steady growth of cells. We further demonstrate that this relationship is supported through adaptation experiments of bacteria, perhaps too well as this proportionality is held even across cultures of different types of conditions. On the basis of simulations of cell models, we further show that this global proportionality is a consequence of evolution in which expression changes in response to environmental or genetic perturbations are constrained along a unique one-dimensional curve, which is a result of evolutionary robustness. It then follows that the expression changes induced by environmental changes are proportionally reduced across different components of a cell by evolution, which is akin to the Le Chatelier thermodynamics principle. Finally, with the aid of a fluctuation-response relationship, this proportionality is shown to hold between fluctuations caused by genetic changes and those caused by noise. Overall, these results and support from the theoretical and experimental literature suggest a formulation of cellular systems akin to thermodynamics, in which a macroscopic potential is given by the growth rate (or fitness) represented as a function of environmental and evolutionary changes.

Environmental influences on speleothem growth in southwestern Oregon during the last 380, 000 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ersek, Vasile; Hostetler, Steven W.; Cheng, Hai; Clark, Peter U.; Anslow, Faron S.; Mix, Alan C.; Edwards, R. Lawrence

2009-01-01

The growth of carbonate formations in caves (speleothems) is sensitive to changes in environmental conditions at the surface (temperature, precipitation and vegetation) and can provide useful paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental information. We use 73 230Th dates from speleothems collected from a cave in southwestern Oregon (USA) to constrain speleothem growth for the past 380 000 years. Most speleothem growth occurred during interglacial periods, whereas little growth occurred during glacial intervals. To evaluate potential environmental controls on speleothem growth we use two new modeling approaches: i) a one-dimensional thermal advection–diffusion model to estimate cave temperatures during the last glacial cycle, and ii) a regional climate model simulation for the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years before present) that assesses a range of potential controls on speleothem growth under peak glacial conditions. The two models are mutually consistent in indicating that permafrost formation did not influence speleothem growth during glacial periods. Instead, the regional climate model simulation combined with proxy data suggest that the influence of the Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets on atmospheric circulation induced substantial changes in water balance in the Pacific Northwest and affected speleothem growth at our location. The overall drier conditions during glacial intervals and associated periods of frozen topsoil at times of maximum surface runoff likely induced drastic changes in cave recharge and limited speleothem growth. This mechanism could have affected speleothem growth in other mid-latitude caves without requiring the presence of permafrost.

Bird Migration Under Climate Change - A Mechanistic Approach Using Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James A.; Blattner, Tim; Messmer, Peter

2010-01-01

The broad-scale reductions and shifts that may be expected under climate change in the availability and quality of stopover habitat for long-distance migrants is an area of increasing concern for conservation biologists. Researchers generally have taken two broad approaches to the modeling of migration behaviour to understand the impact of these changes on migratory bird populations. These include models based on causal processes and their response to environmental stimulation, "mechanistic models", or models that primarily are based on observed animal distribution patterns and the correlation of these patterns with environmental variables, i.e. "data driven" models. Investigators have applied the latter technique to forecast changes in migration patterns with changes in the environment, for example, as might be expected under climate change, by forecasting how the underlying environmental data layers upon which the relationships are built will change over time. The learned geostatstical correlations are then applied to the modified data layers.. However, this is problematic. Even if the projections of how the underlying data layers will change are correct, it is not evident that the statistical relationships will remain the same, i.e. that the animal organism may not adapt its' behaviour to the changing conditions. Mechanistic models that explicitly take into account the physical, biological, and behaviour responses of an organism as well as the underlying changes in the landscape offer an alternative to address these shortcomings. The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies enable the application of the mechanistic models to predict how continental bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier work, we simulated the impact of effects of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds in the central fly ways of North America. We demonstrated the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers consisting of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations using an individual based migration model driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data and biological field data. With the advent of new computing capabilities enabled hy recent GPU-GP computing paradigms and commodity hardware, it now is possible to simulate both larger ensemble populations and to incorporate more realistic mechanistic factors into migration models. Here, we take our first steps use these tools to study the impact of long-term drought variability on shorebird survival.

Slowly switching between environments facilitates reverse evolution in small populations.

PubMed

Tan, Longzhi; Gore, Jeff

2012-10-01

Natural populations must constantly adapt to ever-changing environmental conditions. A particularly interesting question is whether such adaptations can be reversed by returning the population to an ancestral environment. Such evolutionary reversals have been observed in both natural and laboratory populations. However, the factors that determine the reversibility of evolution are still under debate. The time scales of environmental change vary over a wide range, but little is known about how the rate of environmental change influences the reversibility of evolution. Here, we demonstrate computationally that slowly switching between environments increases the reversibility of evolution for small populations that are subject to only modest clonal interference. For small populations, slow switching reduces the mean number of mutations acquired in a new environment and also increases the probability of reverse evolution at each of these "genetic distances." As the population size increases, slow switching no longer reduces the genetic distance, thus decreasing the evolutionary reversibility. We confirm this effect using both a phenomenological model of clonal interference and also a Wright-Fisher stochastic simulation that incorporates genetic diversity. Our results suggest that the rate of environmental change is a key determinant of the reversibility of evolution, and provides testable hypotheses for experimental evolution. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Combined Space Environmental Exposure Tests of Multi-Junction GaAs/Ge Solar Array Coupons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoang, Bao; Wong, Frankie; Corey, Ron; Gardiner, George; Funderburk, Victor V.; Gahart, Richard; Wright, Kenneth H.; Schneider, Todd; Vaughn, Jason

2010-01-01

A set of multi-junction GaAs/Ge solar array test coupons were subjected to a sequence of 5-year increments of combined environmental exposure tests. The purpose of this test program is to understand the changes and degradation of the solar array panel components, including its ESD mitigation design features in their integrated form, after multiple years (up to 15) of simulated geosynchronous space environment. These tests consist of: UV radiation, electrostatic discharge (ESD), electron/proton particle radiation, thermal cycling, and ion thruster plume exposures. The solar radiation was produced using a Mercury-Xenon lamp with wavelengths in the UV spectrum ranging from 230 to 400 nm. The ESD test was performed in the inverted-gradient mode using a low-energy electron (2.6 - 6 keV) beam exposure. The ESD test also included a simulated panel coverglass flashover for the primary arc event. The electron/proton radiation exposure included both 1.0 MeV and 100 keV electron beams simultaneous with a 40 keV proton beam. The thermal cycling included simulated transient earth eclipse for satellites in geosynchronous orbit. With the increasing use of ion thruster engines on many satellites, the combined environmental test also included ion thruster exposure to determine whether solar array surface erosion had any impact on its performance. Before and after each increment of environmental exposures, the coupons underwent visual inspection under high power magnification and electrical tests that included characterization by LAPSS, Dark I-V, and electroluminescence. This paper discusses the test objective, test methodologies, and preliminary results after 5 years of simulated exposure.

Vulnerability of Coastal Wetlands in the Southeastern United States: Climate Change Research Results, 1992-97.

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-09-01

pro- jected to have significant regional impacts on resource management and use of these public lands . Southeastern coastal wetlands have also... land tree and shrub species. Measures of plant physiological activity using experi- mentally simulated environmental conditions predicted to occur...Hence, short- term rates of marsh transgression may be meaningless and may not be useful tools to predict wetland habitat change, at least for some

Computational Approach to Seasonal Changes of Living Leaves

PubMed Central

Wu, Dong-Yan

2013-01-01

This paper proposes a computational approach to seasonal changes of living leaves by combining the geometric deformations and textural color changes. The geometric model of a leaf is generated by triangulating the scanned image of a leaf using an optimized mesh. The triangular mesh of the leaf is deformed by the improved mass-spring model, while the deformation is controlled by setting different mass values for the vertices on the leaf model. In order to adaptively control the deformation of different regions in the leaf, the mass values of vertices are set to be in proportion to the pixels' intensities of the corresponding user-specified grayscale mask map. The geometric deformations as well as the textural color changes of a leaf are used to simulate the seasonal changing process of leaves based on Markov chain model with different environmental parameters including temperature, humidness, and time. Experimental results show that the method successfully simulates the seasonal changes of leaves. PMID:23533545

Simulation of Halocarbon Production and Emissions and Effects on Ozone Depletion

PubMed

Holmes; Ellis

1997-09-01

/ This paper describes an integrated model that simulates future halocarbon production/emissions and potential ozone depletion. Applications and historical production levels for various halocarbons are discussed first. A framework is then presented for modeling future halocarbon impacts incorporating differences in underlying demands, applications, regulatory mandates, and environmental characteristics. The model is used to simulate the potential impacts of several prominent issues relating to halocarbon production, regulation, and environmental interactions, notably: changes in agricultural methyl bromide use, increases in effectiveness of bromine for ozone depletion, modifications to the elimination schedule for HCFCs, short-term expansion of CFC demand in low use compliance countries, and delays in Russian Federation compliance. Individually, each issue does not unequivocally represent a significant likely increase in long-term atmospheric halogen loading and stratospheric ozone depletion. In combination, however, these impacts could increase peak halogen concentrations and long-term integral halogen loading, resulting in higher levels of stratospheric ozone depletion and longer exposure to increased levels of UV radiation.KEY WORDS: Halocarbons; Ozone depletion; Montreal Protocol; Integrated assessment

Urban Expansion Modeling Approach Based on Multi-Agent System and Cellular Automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Y. N.; Yu, M. M.; Li, S. N.

2018-04-01

Urban expansion is a land-use change process that transforms non-urban land into urban land. This process results in the loss of natural vegetation and increase in impervious surfaces. Urban expansion also alters the hydrologic cycling, atmospheric circulation, and nutrient cycling processes and generates enormous environmental and social impacts. Urban expansion monitoring and modeling are crucial to understanding urban expansion process, mechanism, and its environmental impacts, and predicting urban expansion in future scenarios. Therefore, it is important to study urban expansion monitoring and modeling approaches. We proposed to simulate urban expansion by combining CA and MAS model. The proposed urban expansion model based on MSA and CA was applied to a case study area of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, China. The results show that this model can capture urban expansion with good adaptability. The Kappa coefficient of the simulation results is 0.75, which indicated that the combination of MAS and CA offered the better simulation result.

Impact of land cover change on the environmental hydrology characteristics in Kelantan river basin, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saadatkhah, Nader; Mansor, Shattri; Khuzaimah, Zailani; Asmat, Arnis; Adnan, Noraizam; Adam, Siti Noradzah

2016-09-01

Changing the land cover/ land use has serious environmental impacts affecting the ecosystem in Malaysia. The impact of land cover changes on the environmental functions such as surface water, loss water, and soil moisture is considered in this paper on the Kelantan river basin. The study area at the east coast of the peninsular Malaysia has suffered significant land cover changes in the recent years. The current research tried to assess the impact of land cover changes in the study area focused on the surface water, loss water, and soil moisture from different land use classes and the potential impact of land cover changes on the ecosystem of Kelantan river basin. To simulate the impact of land cover changes on the environmental hydrology characteristics, a deterministic regional modeling were employed in this study based on five approaches, i.e. (1) Land cover classification based on Landsat images; (2) assessment of land cover changes during last three decades; (3) Calculation the rate of water Loss/ Infiltration; (4) Assessment of hydrological and mechanical effects of the land cover changes on the surface water; and (5) evaluation the impact of land cover changes on the ecosystem of the study area. Assessment of land cover impact on the environmental hydrology was computed with the improved transient rainfall infiltration and grid based regional model (Improved-TRIGRS) based on the transient infiltration, and subsequently changes in the surface water, due to precipitation events. The results showed the direct increased in surface water from development area, agricultural area, and grassland regions compared with surface water from other land covered areas in the study area. The urban areas or lower planting density areas tend to increase for surface water during the monsoon seasons, whereas the inter flow from forested and secondary jungle areas contributes to the normal surface water.

Evolution of environmental factors affecting tropical cyclones from the LGM through the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korty, R.

2010-12-01

The debate about whether and how tropical cyclones respond to warming climates has raised several interesting questions, but it has also revealed there is much we do not understand about controls on frequency and cumulative metrics of intensity and activity. In this work, I examine how the models used for anthropogenic climate predictions handle large-scale factors influencing tropical cyclone development in a different regime: the paleoclimate simulations of the LGM and Holocene. The models were forced under guidelines set forth by the second paleoclimate model intercomparison project (PMIP2), and produce equilibrium solutions for forcings far removed from small perturbations to the present-day world. (LGM has substantially lower CO2 and CH4 levels, while mid-Holocene cases have similar levels to today but different seasonal amplitudes from orbital variations.) The large-scale environmental factors that support tropical cyclones in today’s climate undergo complex and at times counter-intuitive changes in the colder simulations. The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones (MPI) is lower throughout the tropics in the mid-Holocene simulations, despite having SSTs very similar to today. MPI changes at LGM are more complex: lower in some regions but higher in much of the subtropics, while SSTs are uniformly lower than today. The water vapor deficits in the tropical midtroposphere change in such a way as to make tropical cyclone formation easier in the colder states; this is a counterintuitive result, but one consistent with the predictions of fewer storms in model simulations of a warmer climate by the end of the 21st century. I analyze the thermodynamic reasons behind the evolution in the large-scale environmental factors as well as relevant dynamic factors such as low-level vorticity and tropospheric wind shear. This analysis is the first part of a long-term project to analyze model prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the recent geologic past; the analysis provides a new line of evidence to compare with geologic proxies of tropical cyclone activity through the Holocene. Changes in midtropospheric entropy deficit from preindustrial (PI) climate to mid-Holocene (6ka) and LGM. Lower values indicate a smaller saturation deficit, which is conducive for tropical cyclone development.

LPJ-GUESS Simulated North America Vegetation for 21-0 ka Using the TraCE-21ka Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2016-12-01

Transient climate simulations that span multiple millennia (e.g., TraCE-21ka) have become more common as computing power has increased, allowing climate models to complete long simulations in relatively short periods of time (i.e., months). These climate simulations provide information on the potential rate, variability, and spatial expression of past climate changes. They also can be used as input data for other environmental models to simulate transient changes for different components of paleoenvironmental systems, such as vegetation. Long, transient paleovegetation simulations can provide information on a range of ecological processes, describe the spatial and temporal patterns of changes in species distributions, and identify the potential locations of past species refugia. Paleovegetation simulations also can be used to fill in spatial and temporal gaps in observed paleovegetation data (e.g., pollen records from lake sediments) and to test hypotheses of past vegetation change. We used the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation for 21-0 ka from CCSM3, a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The TraCE-21ka simulated temperature, precipitation, and cloud data were regridded onto a 10-minute grid of North America. These regridded climate data, along with soil data and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, were used as input to LPJ-GUESS, a general ecosystem model, to simulate North America vegetation from 21-0 ka. LPJ-GUESS simulates many of the processes controlling the distribution of vegetation (e.g., competition), although some important processes (e.g., dispersal) are not simulated. We evaluate the LPJ-GUESS-simulated vegetation (in the form of plant functional types and biomes) for key time periods and compare the simulated vegetation with observed paleovegetation data, such as data archived in the Neotoma Paleoecology Database. In general, vegetation simulated by LPJ-GUESS reproduces the major North America vegetation patterns (e.g., forest, grassland) with regional areas of disagreement between simulated and observed vegetation. We describe the regions and time periods with the greatest data-model agreement and disagreement, and discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of both the simulated climate and simulated vegetation data.

Simulation of thermomechanical fatigue in solder joints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fang, H.E.; Porter, V.L.; Fye, R.M.

1997-12-31

Thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) is a very complex phenomenon in electronic component systems and has been identified as one prominent degradation mechanism for surface mount solder joints in the stockpile. In order to precisely predict the TMF-related effects on the reliability of electronic components in weapons, a multi-level simulation methodology is being developed at Sandia National Laboratories. This methodology links simulation codes of continuum mechanics (JAS3D), microstructural mechanics (GLAD), and microstructural evolution (PARGRAIN) to treat the disparate length scales that exist between the macroscopic response of the component and the microstructural changes occurring in its constituent materials. JAS3D is used tomore » predict strain/temperature distributions in the component due to environmental variable fluctuations. GLAD identifies damage initiation and accumulation in detail based on the spatial information provided by JAS3D. PARGRAIN simulates the changes of material microstructure, such as the heterogeneous coarsening in Sn-Pb solder, when the component`s service environment varies.« less

The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Chelsea L.; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Mooney, Priscilla A.; Lynch, Amanda H.

2018-01-01

Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5-10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems.

Simulating the interactions of forest structure, fire regime, and plant invasion in the southern Appalachians using LANDIS

Treesearch

Weimin Xi; Szu-Hung Chen; Andrew G. Birt; John D. Waldron; Charles W. Lafon; David M. Cairns; Maria D. Tchakerian; Kier D. Klepzig; Robert N. Coulson

2011-01-01

Southern Appalachian forests face multiple environmental threats, including periodic fires, insect outbreaks, and more recently, exotic invasive plants. Past studies suggest these multiple disturbances interact to shape species-rich forest landscape, and they hypothesize that changes in fire regimes and increasing landscape fragmentation may influence invasive...

Soil Carbon Residence Time in the Arctic - Potential Drivers of Past and Future Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Fisher, J.; Schwalm, C. R.; Hayes, D. J.; Stofferahn, E.; Hantson, W.; Schaefer, K. M.; Fang, Y.; Michalak, A. M.; Wei, Y.

2017-12-01

Carbon residence time is one of the most important factors controlling carbon cycling in ecosystems. Residence time depends on carbon allocation and conversion among various carbon pools and the rate of organic matter decomposition; all of which rely on environmental conditions, primarily temperature and soil moisture. As a result, residence time is an emergent property of models and a strong determinant of terrestrial carbon storage capacity. However, residence time is poorly constrained in process-based models due, in part, to the lack of data with which to benchmark global-scale models in order to guide model improvements and, ultimately, reduce uncertainty in model projections. Here we focus on improving the understanding of the drivers to observed and simulated carbon residence time in the Arctic-Boreal region (ABR). Carbon-cycling in the ABR represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty in historical and future projections of land-atmosphere carbon dynamics. This uncertainty is depicted in the large spread of terrestrial biospheric model (TBM) estimates of carbon flux and ecosystem carbon pool size in this region. Recent efforts, such as the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), have increased the availability of spatially explicit in-situ and remotely sensed carbon and ecosystem focused data products in the ABR. Together with simulations from Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we use these observations to evaluate the ability of models to capture soil carbon stocks and changes in the ABR. Specifically, we compare simulated versus observed soil carbon residence times in order to evaluate the functional response and sensitivity of modeled soil carbon stocks to changes in key environmental drivers. Understanding how simulated carbon residence time compares with observations and what drives these differences is critical for improving projections of changing carbon dynamics in the ABR and globally.

Detecting drawdowns masked by environmental stresses with water-level models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, C.A.; Halford, K.J.; Fenelon, J.M.

2013-01-01

Detecting and quantifying small drawdown at observation wells distant from the pumping well greatly expands the characterized aquifer volume. However, this detection is often obscured by water level fluctuations such as barometric and tidal effects. A reliable analytical approach for distinguishing drawdown from nonpumping water-level fluctuations is presented and tested here. Drawdown is distinguished by analytically simulating all pumping and nonpumping water-level stresses simultaneously during the period of record. Pumping signals are generated with Theis models, where the pumping schedule is translated into water-level change with the Theis solution. This approach closely matched drawdowns simulated with a complex three-dimensional, hypothetical model and reasonably estimated drawdowns from an aquifer test conducted in a complex hydrogeologic system. Pumping-induced changes generated with a numerical model and analytical Theis model agreed (RMS as low as 0.007 m) in cases where pumping signals traveled more than 1 km across confining units and fault structures. Maximum drawdowns of about 0.05 m were analytically estimated from field investigations where environmental fluctuations approached 0.2 m during the analysis period.

Attribution of changes in global wetland methane emissions from pre-industrial to present using CLM4.5-BGC

DOE PAGES

Paudel, Rajendra; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Hess, Peter G. M.; ...

2016-03-10

An understanding of potential factors controlling methane emissions from natural wetlands is important to accurately project future atmospheric methane concentrations. Here, we examine the relative contributions of climatic and environmental factors, such as precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO 2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, wetland inundation extent, and land-use and land-cover change, on changes in wetland methane emissions from preindustrial to present day (i.e., 1850-2005). We apply a mechanistic methane biogeochemical model integrated in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), the land component of the Community Earth System Model. The methane model explicitly simulates methane production, oxidation, ebullition, transport through aerenchyma ofmore » plants, and aqueous and gaseous diffusion. We conduct a suite of model simulations from 1850 to 2005, with all changes in environmental factors included, and sensitivity studies isolating each factor. Globally, we estimate that preindustrial methane emissions were higher by 10% than present-day emissions from natural wetlands, with emissions changes from preindustrial to the present of +15%, -41%, and -11% for the high latitudes, temperate regions, and tropics, respectively. The most important change is due to the estimated change in wetland extent, due to the conversion of wetland areas to drylands by humans. This effect alone leads to higher preindustrial global methane fluxes by 33% relative to the present, with the largest change in temperate regions (+80%). These increases were partially offset by lower preindustrial emissions due to lower CO 2 levels (10%), shifts in precipitation (7%), lower nitrogen deposition (3%), and changes in land-use and land-cover (2%). Cooler temperatures in the preindustrial regions resulted in our simulations in an increase in global methane emissions of 6% relative to present day. Much of the sensitivity to these perturbations is mediated in the model by changes in methane substrate production and the areal extent of wetlands. The detrended interannual variability of high-latitude methane emissions is explained by the variation in substrate production and wetland inundation extent, whereas the tropical emission variability is explained by both of those variables and precipitation.« less

Attribution of changes in global wetland methane emissions from pre-industrial to present using CLM4.5-BGC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paudel, Rajendra; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Hess, Peter G. M.

An understanding of potential factors controlling methane emissions from natural wetlands is important to accurately project future atmospheric methane concentrations. Here, we examine the relative contributions of climatic and environmental factors, such as precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO 2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, wetland inundation extent, and land-use and land-cover change, on changes in wetland methane emissions from preindustrial to present day (i.e., 1850-2005). We apply a mechanistic methane biogeochemical model integrated in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), the land component of the Community Earth System Model. The methane model explicitly simulates methane production, oxidation, ebullition, transport through aerenchyma ofmore » plants, and aqueous and gaseous diffusion. We conduct a suite of model simulations from 1850 to 2005, with all changes in environmental factors included, and sensitivity studies isolating each factor. Globally, we estimate that preindustrial methane emissions were higher by 10% than present-day emissions from natural wetlands, with emissions changes from preindustrial to the present of +15%, -41%, and -11% for the high latitudes, temperate regions, and tropics, respectively. The most important change is due to the estimated change in wetland extent, due to the conversion of wetland areas to drylands by humans. This effect alone leads to higher preindustrial global methane fluxes by 33% relative to the present, with the largest change in temperate regions (+80%). These increases were partially offset by lower preindustrial emissions due to lower CO 2 levels (10%), shifts in precipitation (7%), lower nitrogen deposition (3%), and changes in land-use and land-cover (2%). Cooler temperatures in the preindustrial regions resulted in our simulations in an increase in global methane emissions of 6% relative to present day. Much of the sensitivity to these perturbations is mediated in the model by changes in methane substrate production and the areal extent of wetlands. The detrended interannual variability of high-latitude methane emissions is explained by the variation in substrate production and wetland inundation extent, whereas the tropical emission variability is explained by both of those variables and precipitation.« less

Modeling sediment supply of the Congo watershed since the last 23 ka.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molliex, Stéphane; Kettner, Albert J.; Laurent, Dimitri; Droz, Laurence; Marsset, Tania; Laraque, Alain; Rabineau, Marina

2017-04-01

The Congo River is the world's second river in term of drainage area (3.7 millions of km2) and water discharge (42,000 m3.s-1). Located in equatorial Africa, the basin extends over the two hemispheres, leading to an annual homogeneous repartition of climatic parameters and modest variation in intra-annual discharge. Monitored for decades, a large dataset is available for both the hydrology and sediment load for the Congo system. Moreover, the Quaternary Congo turbidite system geometry has been widely studied and an abundance of paleo-environmental parameters have been inferred from chemical proxies analyzed from offshore cores. These numerous data, both onshore and offshore, allow for accurate calibration of numeric modeling and for efficient comparison between observed and simulated data. This study aims (i) to quantify the evolution of sediment supply leaving the Congo watershed during the last 23 ka; (ii) to decipher the forcing parameters controlling the sediment supply over glacial/interglacial stages. HydroTrend is a model that simulates water discharge and sediment load leaving a hydrologic system. It is based on morphologic, climatic, hydrologic, lithologic, land cover and anthropogenic factors. After calibrating the present-day discharge and sediment load, we simulated discharge and sediment supply over 23 ka, integrating the changes in environmental conditions during this period. Results show that present-day simulations fit the observed data well if a significant part of sediments is being trapped by the catchment, in the floodplain. The long-term simulations show that the changes in climatic conditions (temperature and precipitations) between glacial and interglacial stages only account for a maximum variation of about 20 % of the sediment supply. The resulting land cover changes are most likely a more significant factor controlling the sediment supply; the loss of forest during colder and dryer stages can be responsible for up to 50 % of sediment supply increase.

Climate variability and change scenarios for a marine commodity: Modelling small pelagic fish, fisheries and fishmeal in a globalized market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merino, Gorka; Barange, Manuel; Mullon, Christian

2010-04-01

The world's small pelagic fish populations, their fisheries, fishmeal and fish oil production industries and markets are part of a globalised production and consumption system. The potential for climate variability and change to alter the balance in this system is explored by means of bioeconomic models at two different temporal scales, with the objective of investigating the interactive nature of environmental and human-induced changes on this globalised system. Short-term (interannual) environmental impacts on fishmeal production are considered by including an annual variable production rate on individual small pelagic fish stocks over a 10-year simulation period. These impacts on the resources are perceived by the fishmeal markets, where they are confronted by two aquaculture expansion hypotheses. Long-term (2080) environmental impacts on the same stocks are estimated using long-term primary production predictions as proxies for the species' carrying capacities, rather than using variable production rates, and are confronted on the market side by two alternative fishmeal management scenarios consistent with IPCC-type storylines. The two scenarios, World Markets and Global Commons, are parameterized through classic equilibrium solutions for a global surplus production bioeconomic model, namely maximum sustainable yield and open access, respectively. The fisheries explicitly modelled in this paper represent 70% of total fishmeal production, thus encapsulating the expected dynamics of the global production and consumption system. Both short and long-term simulations suggest that the sustainability of the small pelagic resources, in the face of climate variability and change, depends more on how society responds to climate impacts than on the magnitude of climate alterations per se.

Effect of climate change on environmental flow indicators in the narew basin, poland.

PubMed

Piniewski, Mikołaj; Laizé, Cédric L R; Acreman, Michael C; Okruszko, Tomasz; Schneider, Christof

2014-01-01

Environmental flows-the quantity of water required to maintain a river ecosystem in its desired state-are of particular importance in areas of high natural value. Water-dependent ecosystems are exposed to the risk of climate change through altered precipitation and evaporation. Rivers in the Narew basin in northeastern Poland are known for their valuable river and wetland ecosystems, many of them in pristine or near-pristine condition. The objective of this study was to assess changes in the environmental flow regime of the Narew river system, caused by climate change, as simulated by hydrological models with different degrees of physical characterization and spatial aggregation. Two models were assessed: the river basin scale model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the continental model of water availability and use WaterGAP. Future climate change scenarios were provided by two general circulation models coupled with the A2 emission scenario: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2. To assess the impact of climate change on environmental flows, a method based conceptually on the "range of variability" approach was used. The results indicate that the environmental flow regime in the Narew basin is subject to climate change risk, whose magnitude and spatial variability varies with climate model and hydrological modeling scale. Most of the analyzed sites experienced moderate impacts for the Generic Environmental Flow Indicator (GEFI), the Floodplain Inundation Indicator, and the River Habitat Availability Indicator. The consistency between SWAT and WaterGAP for GEFI was medium: in 55 to 66% of analyzed sites, the models suggested the same level of impact. Hence, we suggest that state-of-the-art, high-resolution, global- or continental-scale models, such as WaterGAP, could be useful tools for water management decision-makers and wetland conservation practitioners, whereas models such as SWAT should serve as a complementary tool for more specific, smaller-scale, local assessments. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Entropy generation method to quantify thermal comfort.

PubMed

Boregowda, S C; Tiwari, S N; Chaturvedi, S K

2001-12-01

The present paper presents a thermodynamic approach to assess the quality of human-thermal environment interaction and quantify thermal comfort. The approach involves development of entropy generation term by applying second law of thermodynamics to the combined human-environment system. The entropy generation term combines both human thermal physiological responses and thermal environmental variables to provide an objective measure of thermal comfort. The original concepts and definitions form the basis for establishing the mathematical relationship between thermal comfort and entropy generation term. As a result of logic and deterministic approach, an Objective Thermal Comfort Index (OTCI) is defined and established as a function of entropy generation. In order to verify the entropy-based thermal comfort model, human thermal physiological responses due to changes in ambient conditions are simulated using a well established and validated human thermal model developed at the Institute of Environmental Research of Kansas State University (KSU). The finite element based KSU human thermal computer model is being utilized as a "Computational Environmental Chamber" to conduct series of simulations to examine the human thermal responses to different environmental conditions. The output from the simulation, which include human thermal responses and input data consisting of environmental conditions are fed into the thermal comfort model. Continuous monitoring of thermal comfort in comfortable and extreme environmental conditions is demonstrated. The Objective Thermal Comfort values obtained from the entropy-based model are validated against regression based Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) values. Using the corresponding air temperatures and vapor pressures that were used in the computer simulation in the regression equation generates the PMV values. The preliminary results indicate that the OTCI and PMV values correlate well under ideal conditions. However, an experimental study is needed in the future to fully establish the validity of the OTCI formula and the model. One of the practical applications of this index is that could it be integrated in thermal control systems to develop human-centered environmental control systems for potential use in aircraft, mass transit vehicles, intelligent building systems, and space vehicles.

Entropy generation method to quantify thermal comfort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boregowda, S. C.; Tiwari, S. N.; Chaturvedi, S. K.

2001-01-01

The present paper presents a thermodynamic approach to assess the quality of human-thermal environment interaction and quantify thermal comfort. The approach involves development of entropy generation term by applying second law of thermodynamics to the combined human-environment system. The entropy generation term combines both human thermal physiological responses and thermal environmental variables to provide an objective measure of thermal comfort. The original concepts and definitions form the basis for establishing the mathematical relationship between thermal comfort and entropy generation term. As a result of logic and deterministic approach, an Objective Thermal Comfort Index (OTCI) is defined and established as a function of entropy generation. In order to verify the entropy-based thermal comfort model, human thermal physiological responses due to changes in ambient conditions are simulated using a well established and validated human thermal model developed at the Institute of Environmental Research of Kansas State University (KSU). The finite element based KSU human thermal computer model is being utilized as a "Computational Environmental Chamber" to conduct series of simulations to examine the human thermal responses to different environmental conditions. The output from the simulation, which include human thermal responses and input data consisting of environmental conditions are fed into the thermal comfort model. Continuous monitoring of thermal comfort in comfortable and extreme environmental conditions is demonstrated. The Objective Thermal Comfort values obtained from the entropy-based model are validated against regression based Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) values. Using the corresponding air temperatures and vapor pressures that were used in the computer simulation in the regression equation generates the PMV values. The preliminary results indicate that the OTCI and PMV values correlate well under ideal conditions. However, an experimental study is needed in the future to fully establish the validity of the OTCI formula and the model. One of the practical applications of this index is that could it be integrated in thermal control systems to develop human-centered environmental control systems for potential use in aircraft, mass transit vehicles, intelligent building systems, and space vehicles.

Numerical simulation of two-dimensional heat transfer in composite bodies with application to de-icing of aircraft components. Ph.D. Thesis. Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, D. F. K.

1983-01-01

Transient, numerical simulations of the de-icing of composite aircraft components by electrothermal heating were performed for a two dimensional rectangular geometry. The implicit Crank-Nicolson formulation was used to insure stability of the finite-difference heat conduction equations and the phase change in the ice layer was simulated using the Enthalpy method. The Gauss-Seidel point iterative method was used to solve the system of difference equations. Numerical solutions illustrating de-icer performance for various composite aircraft structures and environmental conditions are presented. Comparisons are made with previous studies. The simulation can also be used to solve a variety of other heat conduction problems involving composite bodies.

Re-Structuring of Marine Communities Exposed to Environmental Change: A Global Study on the Interactive Effects of Species and Functional Richness

PubMed Central

Wahl, Martin; Link, Heike; Alexandridis, Nicolaos; Thomason, Jeremy C.; Cifuentes, Mauricio; Costello, Mark J.; da Gama, Bernardo A. P.; Hillock, Kristina; Hobday, Alistair J.; Kaufmann, Manfred J.; Keller, Stefanie; Kraufvelin, Patrik; Krüger, Ina; Lauterbach, Lars; Antunes, Bruno L.; Molis, Markus; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Nyström, Julia; bin Radzi, Zulkamal; Stockhausen, Björn; Thiel, Martin; Vance, Thomas; Weseloh, Annika; Whittle, Mark; Wiesmann, Lisa; Wunderer, Laura; Yamakita, Takehisa; Lenz, Mark

2011-01-01

Species richness is the most commonly used but controversial biodiversity metric in studies on aspects of community stability such as structural composition or productivity. The apparent ambiguity of theoretical and experimental findings may in part be due to experimental shortcomings and/or heterogeneity of scales and methods in earlier studies. This has led to an urgent call for improved and more realistic experiments. In a series of experiments replicated at a global scale we translocated several hundred marine hard bottom communities to new environments simulating a rapid but moderate environmental change. Subsequently, we measured their rate of compositional change (re-structuring) which in the great majority of cases represented a compositional convergence towards local communities. Re-structuring is driven by mortality of community components (original species) and establishment of new species in the changed environmental context. The rate of this re-structuring was then related to various system properties. We show that availability of free substratum relates negatively while taxon richness relates positively to structural persistence (i.e., no or slow re-structuring). Thus, when faced with environmental change, taxon-rich communities retain their original composition longer than taxon-poor communities. The effect of taxon richness, however, interacts with another aspect of diversity, functional richness. Indeed, taxon richness relates positively to persistence in functionally depauperate communities, but not in functionally diverse communities. The interaction between taxonomic and functional diversity with regard to the behaviour of communities exposed to environmental stress may help understand some of the seemingly contrasting findings of past research. PMID:21611170

Active printed materials for complex self-evolving deformations.

PubMed

Raviv, Dan; Zhao, Wei; McKnelly, Carrie; Papadopoulou, Athina; Kadambi, Achuta; Shi, Boxin; Hirsch, Shai; Dikovsky, Daniel; Zyracki, Michael; Olguin, Carlos; Raskar, Ramesh; Tibbits, Skylar

2014-12-18

We propose a new design of complex self-evolving structures that vary over time due to environmental interaction. In conventional 3D printing systems, materials are meant to be stable rather than active and fabricated models are designed and printed as static objects. Here, we introduce a novel approach for simulating and fabricating self-evolving structures that transform into a predetermined shape, changing property and function after fabrication. The new locally coordinated bending primitives combine into a single system, allowing for a global deformation which can stretch, fold and bend given environmental stimulus.

Active Printed Materials for Complex Self-Evolving Deformations

PubMed Central

Raviv, Dan; Zhao, Wei; McKnelly, Carrie; Papadopoulou, Athina; Kadambi, Achuta; Shi, Boxin; Hirsch, Shai; Dikovsky, Daniel; Zyracki, Michael; Olguin, Carlos; Raskar, Ramesh; Tibbits, Skylar

2014-01-01

We propose a new design of complex self-evolving structures that vary over time due to environmental interaction. In conventional 3D printing systems, materials are meant to be stable rather than active and fabricated models are designed and printed as static objects. Here, we introduce a novel approach for simulating and fabricating self-evolving structures that transform into a predetermined shape, changing property and function after fabrication. The new locally coordinated bending primitives combine into a single system, allowing for a global deformation which can stretch, fold and bend given environmental stimulus. PMID:25522053

Improving Subtropical Boundary Layer Cloudiness in the 2011 NCEP GFS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fletcher, J. K.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Xiao, Heng

2014-09-23

The current operational version of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) shows significant low cloud bias. These biases also appear in the Coupled Forecast System (CFS), which is developed from the GFS. These low cloud biases degrade seasonal and longer climate forecasts, particularly of short-wave cloud radiative forcing, and affect predicted sea surface temperature. Reducing this bias in the GFS will aid the development of future CFS versions and contributes to NCEP's goal of unified weather and climate modelling. Changes are made to the shallow convection and planetary boundary layer parameterisations to make them more consistentmore » with current knowledge of these processes and to reduce the low cloud bias. These changes are tested in a single-column version of GFS and in global simulations with GFS coupled to a dynamical ocean model. In the single-column model, we focus on changing parameters that set the following: the strength of shallow cumulus lateral entrainment, the conversion of updraught liquid water to precipitation and grid-scale condensate, shallow cumulus cloud top, and the effect of shallow convection in stratocumulus environments. Results show that these changes improve the single-column simulations when compared to large eddy simulations, in particular through decreasing the precipitation efficiency of boundary layer clouds. These changes, combined with a few other model improvements, also reduce boundary layer cloud and albedo biases in global coupled simulations.« less

Introduction to the Physics of the Cryosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandells, Melody; Flocco, Daniela

2014-11-01

Introduction to the Physics of the Cryosphere is intended for graduates with a numerical sciences background, particularly those who are heading towards postgraduate study or are generally interested in environmental physics. Conservation equations underpin the physics encompassed in this book, although the interesting part comes in how the necessary variables and boundary conditions are defined to be able to simulate changes in the cryosphere. Phase changes between ice, liquid water and water vapour also come into play.

Complete energetic description of hydrokinetic turbine impact on flow channel dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brasseale, E.; Kawase, M.

2016-02-01

Energy budget analysis on tidal channels quantifies and demarcates the impacts of marine renewables on environmental fluid dynamics. Energy budget analysis assumes the change in total kinetic energy within a volume of fluid can be described by the work done by each force acting on the flow. In a numerically simulated channel, the balance between energy change and work done has been validated up to 5% error.The forces doing work on the flow include pressure, turbulent dissipation, and stress from the estuary floor. If hydrokinetic turbines are installed in an estuarine channel to convert tidal energy into usable power, the dynamics of the channel change. Turbines provide additional pressure work against the flow of the channel which will slow the current and lessen turbulent dissipation and bottom stress. These losses may negatively impact estuarine circulation, seafloor scour, and stratification.The environmental effects of turbine deployment have been quantified using a three dimensional, Reynolds-averaged, Navier-Stokes model of an idealized flow channel situated between the ocean and a large estuarine basin. The channel is five kilometers wide, twenty kilometers long and fifty meters deep, and resolved to a grid size of 10 meters by 10 meters by 1 meter. Tidal currents are simulated by an initial difference in sea surface height across the channel of 160 centimeters from the channel entrance to the channel exit. This creates a pressure gradient which drives flow through the channel. Tidal power turbines are represented as disks that force the channel in proportion to the strength of the current. Three tidal turbines twenty meters in diameters have been included in the model to simulate the impacts of a pilot scale test deployment.This study is the first to appreciate the energetic impact of marine renewables in a three dimensional model through the energy equation's constituent terms. This study provides groundwork for understanding and predicting the environmental impacts of marine renewables.

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Judd, Chaeli; Thom, Ron; Woodruff, Dana; Ellis, Jean T.; Quattrochi, Dale; Watson, Brian; Rodriquez, Hugo; Johnson, Hoyt

2012-01-01

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA s EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for dissemination to coastal resource managers and stakeholders.

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Estes, M. G.; Judd, C.; Thom, R.; Woodruff, D.; Ellis, J. T.; Quattrochi, D.; Watson, B.; Rodriguez, H.; Johnson, H.

2012-12-01

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA's EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for dissemination to coastal resource managers and stakeholders.

Extraction of land cover change information from ENVISAT-ASAR data in Chengdu Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Wenbo; Fan, Jinlong; Huang, Jianxi; Tian, Yichen; Zhang, Yong

2006-10-01

Land cover data are essential to most global change research objectives, including the assessment of current environmental conditions and the simulation of future environmental scenarios that ultimately lead to public policy development. Chinese Academy of Sciences generated a nationwide land cover database in order to carry out the quantification and spatial characterization of land use/cover changes (LUCC) in 1990s. In order to improve the reliability of the database, we will update the database anytime. But it is difficult to obtain remote sensing data to extract land cover change information in large-scale. It is hard to acquire optical remote sensing data in Chengdu plain, so the objective of this research was to evaluate multitemporal ENVISAT advanced synthetic aperture radar (ASAR) data for extracting land cover change information. Based on the fieldwork and the nationwide 1:100000 land cover database, the paper assesses several land cover changes in Chengdu plain, for example: crop to buildings, forest to buildings, and forest to bare land. The results show that ENVISAT ASAR data have great potential for the applications of extracting land cover change information.

Appendices to the model description document for a computer program for the emulation/simulation of a space station environmental control and life support system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yanosy, James L.

1988-01-01

A Model Description Document for the Emulation Simulation Computer Model was already published. The model consisted of a detailed model (emulation) of a SAWD CO2 removal subsystem which operated with much less detailed (simulation) models of a cabin, crew, and condensing and sensible heat exchangers. The purpose was to explore the utility of such an emulation simulation combination in the design, development, and test of a piece of ARS hardware, SAWD. Extensions to this original effort are presented. The first extension is an update of the model to reflect changes in the SAWD control logic which resulted from test. Also, slight changes were also made to the SAWD model to permit restarting and to improve the iteration technique. The second extension is the development of simulation models for more pieces of air and water processing equipment. Models are presented for: EDC, Molecular Sieve, Bosch, Sabatier, a new condensing heat exchanger, SPE, SFWES, Catalytic Oxidizer, and multifiltration. The third extension is to create two system simulations using these models. The first system presented consists of one air and one water processing system. The second consists of a potential air revitalization system.

Appendices to the user's manual for a computer program for the emulation/simulation of a space station environmental control and life support system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yanosy, James L.

1988-01-01

A user's Manual for the Emulation Simulation Computer Model was published previously. The model consisted of a detailed model (emulation) of a SAWD CO2 removal subsystem which operated with much less detailed (simulation) models of a cabin, crew, and condensing and sensible heat exchangers. The purpose was to explore the utility of such an emulation/simulation combination in the design, development, and test of a piece of ARS hardware - SAWD. Extensions to this original effort are presented. The first extension is an update of the model to reflect changes in the SAWD control logic which resulted from the test. In addition, slight changes were also made to the SAWD model to permit restarting and to improve the iteration technique. The second extension is the development of simulation models for more pieces of air and water processing equipment. Models are presented for: EDC, Molecular Sieve, Bosch, Sabatier, a new condensing heat exchanger, SPE, SFWES, Catalytic Oxidizer, and multifiltration. The third extension is to create two system simulations using these models. The first system presented consists of one air and one water processing system, the second a potential Space Station air revitalization system.

Technical Note: A minimally invasive experimental system for pCO2 manipulation in plankton cultures using passive gas exchange (atmospheric carbon control simulator)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, Brooke A.; Olson, M. Brady; Wuori, Tristen

2017-05-01

As research into the biotic effects of ocean acidification has increased, the methods for simulating these environmental changes in the laboratory have multiplied. Here we describe the atmospheric carbon control simulator (ACCS) for the maintenance of plankton under controlled pCO2 conditions, designed for species sensitive to the physical disturbance introduced by the bubbling of cultures and for studies involving trophic interaction. The system consists of gas mixing and equilibration components coupled with large-volume atmospheric simulation chambers. These chambers allow gas exchange to counteract the changes in carbonate chemistry induced by the metabolic activity of the organisms. The system is relatively low cost, very flexible, and when used in conjunction with semi-continuous culture methods, it increases the density of organisms kept under realistic conditions, increases the allowable time interval between dilutions, and/or decreases the metabolically driven change in carbonate chemistry during these intervals. It accommodates a large number of culture vessels, which facilitate multi-trophic level studies and allow the tracking of variable responses within and across plankton populations to ocean acidification. It also includes components that increase the reliability of gas mixing systems using mass flow controllers.

Changes in the Optical Properties of Simulated Shuttle Waste Water Deposits: Urine Darkening

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albyn, Keith; Edwards, David; Alred, John

2003-01-01

Manned spacecraft have historically dumped the crew generated waste water overboard, into the environment in which the spacecraft operates, sometimes depositing the waste water on the external spacecraft surfaces. The change in optical properties of wastewater deposited on spacecraft external surfaces, from exposure to space environmental effects, is not well understood. This study used nonvolatile residue (NVR) from Human Urine to simulate wastewater deposits and documents the changes in the optical properties of the NVR deposits after exposure to ultra violet(UV)radiation. Twenty four NVR samples of, 0-angstromes/sq cm to 1000-angstromes/sq cm, and one sample contaminated with 1 to 2-mg/sq cm were exposed to UV radiation over the course of approximately 6151 equivalent sun hours (ESH). Random changes in sample mass, NVR, solar absorbance, and infrared emission were observed during the study. Significant changes in the UV transmittance were observed for one sample contaminated at the mg/sq cm level.

Changes in the Optical Properties of Simulated Shuttle Waste Water Deposits- Urine Darkening

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albyn, Keith; Edwards, David; Alred, John

2004-01-01

Manned spacecraft have historically dumped the crew generated waste waster overboard, into the environment in which the spacecraft operates, sometimes depositing the waste water on the external spacecraft surfaces. The change in optical properties of wastewater deposited on spacecraft external surfaces, from exposure to space environmental effects, is not well understood. This study used nonvolatile residue (NVR) from Human Urine to simulate wastewater deposits and documents the changes in the optical properties of the NVR deposits after exposure to ultra violet (UV) radiation. Twenty NVR samples of, 0-angstromes/sq cm to 1000-angstromes/sq cm, and one sample contaminated with 1 to 2-mg/sq cm were exposed to UV radiation over the course of approximately 6151 equivalent sun hours (ESH). Random changes in sample mass, NVR, solar absorbance, and infrared emission were observed during the study. Significant changes in the UV transmittance were observed for one sample contaminated at the mg/sq cm level.

Entrainment, Drizzle, and Stratocumulus Cloud Albedo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackerman, A. S.; Kirkpatrick, M. P.; Stevens, D. E.; Toon, O. B.

2004-01-01

Globally averaged cloud changes from GCMs on average show a doubling of the Twomey effect, which is the change in cloud albedo with respect to changes in droplet concentrations for fixed cloud water and droplet dispersion. In contrast, ship-track measurements show a much more modest amplification of the Twomey effect, suggesting that the GCMs are exaggerating the indirect aerosol effect. We have run large-eddy simulations with bin microphysics of marine stratocumulus from multiple field campaigns, and find that the large-eddy simulations are in much better agreement with the ship-track measurements. The inversion strength over N. Pacific stratocumulus (as measured during DYCOMS-II) is generally much stronger than over N. Atlantic stratocumulus (as measured during ASTEX), and we have found that the response of cloud water to increasing droplet concentration changes sign as the inversion strengthens. For the different environmental conditions, we will show the overall response of cloud albedo to droplet concentrations, and decompose the response into its contributing factors of changes in cloud water, droplet dispersion, and horizontal inhomogeneity.

Identifying potential areas for biofuel production and evaluating the environmental effects: a case study of the James River Basin in the Midwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang; Li, Zhengpeng

2012-01-01

Biofuels are now an important resource in the United States because of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Both increased corn growth for ethanol production and perennial dedicated energy crop growth for cellulosic feedstocks are potential sources to meet the rising demand for biofuels. However, these measures may cause adverse environmental consequences that are not yet fully understood. This study 1) evaluates the long-term impacts of increased frequency of corn in the crop rotation system on water quantity and quality as well as soil fertility in the James River Basin and 2) identifies potential grasslands for cultivating bioenergy crops (e.g. switchgrass), estimating the water quality impacts. We selected the soil and water assessment tool, a physically based multidisciplinary model, as the modeling approach to simulate a series of biofuel production scenarios involving crop rotation and land cover changes. The model simulations with different crop rotation scenarios indicate that decreases in water yield and soil nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N) concentration along with an increase in NO3-N load to stream water could justify serious concerns regarding increased corn rotations in this basin. Simulations with land cover change scenarios helped us spatially classify the grasslands in terms of biomass productivity and nitrogen loads, and we further derived the relationship of biomass production targets and the resulting nitrogen loads against switchgrass planting acreages. The suggested economically efficient (planting acreage) and environmentally friendly (water quality) planting locations and acreages can be a valuable guide for cultivating switchgrass in this basin. This information, along with the projected environmental costs (i.e. reduced water yield and increased nitrogen load), can contribute to decision support tools for land managers to seek the sustainability of biofuel development in this region.

Abiotic/biotic coupling in the rhizosphere: a reactive transport modeling analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawrence, Corey R.; Steefel, Carl; Maher, Kate

2014-01-01

A new generation of models is needed to adequately simulate patterns of soil biogeochemical cycling in response changing global environmental drivers. For example, predicting the influence of climate change on soil organic matter storage and stability requires models capable of addressing complex biotic/abiotic interactions of rhizosphere and weathering processes. Reactive transport modeling provides a powerful framework simulating these interactions and the resulting influence on soil physical and chemical characteristics. Incorporation of organic reactions in an existing reactive transport model framework has yielded novel insights into soil weathering and development but much more work is required to adequately capture root and microbial dynamics in the rhizosphere. This endeavor provides many advantages over traditional soil biogeochemical models but also many challenges.

Effectiveness and Tradeoffs between Portfolios of Adaptation Strategies Addressing Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainties in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Van Lienden, B.; Das, T.; Munevar, A.; Young, C. A.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Huntington, J. L.

2013-12-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the major agricultural areas in the United States. The Central Valley Project (CVP) is operated by the Bureau of Reclamation to serve multiple purposes including generating approximately 4.3 million gigawatt hours of hydropower and providing, on average, 5 million acre-feet of water per year to irrigate approximately 3 million acres of land in the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Lake basins, 600,000 acre-feet per year of water for urban users, and 800,000 acre-feet of annual supplies for environmental purposes. The development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies requires assessing multiple risks including potential climate changes as well as uncertainties in future socioeconomic conditions. In this study, a scenario-based analytical approach was employed by combining three potential 21st century socioeconomic futures with six representative climate and sea level change projections developed using a transient hybrid delta ensemble method from an archive of 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP3 global climate model simulations to form 18 future socioeconomic-climate scenarios. To better simulate the effects of climate changes on agricultural water demands, analyses of historical agricultural meteorological station records were employed to develop estimates of future changes in solar radiation and atmospheric humidity from the GCM simulated temperature and precipitation. Projected changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide were computed directly by weighting SRES emissions scenarios included in each representative climate projection. These results were used as inputs to a calibrated crop water use, growth and yield model to simulate the effects of climate changes on the evapotranspiration and yields of major crops grown in the Central Valley. Existing hydrologic, reservoir operations, water quality, hydropower, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and both urban and agricultural economic models were integrated into a suite of decision support tools to assess the impacts of future socioeconomic-climate uncertainties on key performance metrics for the CVP, State Water Project and other Central Valley water management systems under current regulatory requirements. Four thematic portfolios consisting of regional and local adaptation strategies including changes in reservoir operations, increased water conservation, storage and conveyance were developed and simulated to evaluate their potential effectiveness in meeting delivery reliability, water quality, environmental, hydropower, GHG, urban and agricultural economic performance criteria. The results indicate that the portfolios exhibit a considerable range of effectiveness depending on the socioeconomic-climate scenario. For most criteria, the portfolios were more sensitive to climate projections than socioeconomic assumptions. However, the results demonstrate that important tradeoffs occur between portfolios depending on the performance criteria considered.

Modeling and Simulation of Optimal Resource Management during the Diurnal Cycle in Emiliania huxleyi by Genome-Scale Reconstruction and an Extended Flux Balance Analysis Approach.

PubMed

Knies, David; Wittmüß, Philipp; Appel, Sebastian; Sawodny, Oliver; Ederer, Michael; Feuer, Ronny

2015-10-28

The coccolithophorid unicellular alga Emiliania huxleyi is known to form large blooms, which have a strong effect on the marine carbon cycle. As a photosynthetic organism, it is subjected to a circadian rhythm due to the changing light conditions throughout the day. For a better understanding of the metabolic processes under these periodically-changing environmental conditions, a genome-scale model based on a genome reconstruction of the E. huxleyi strain CCMP 1516 was created. It comprises 410 reactions and 363 metabolites. Biomass composition is variable based on the differentiation into functional biomass components and storage metabolites. The model is analyzed with a flux balance analysis approach called diurnal flux balance analysis (diuFBA) that was designed for organisms with a circadian rhythm. It allows storage metabolites to accumulate or be consumed over the diurnal cycle, while keeping the structure of a classical FBA problem. A feature of this approach is that the production and consumption of storage metabolites is not defined externally via the biomass composition, but the result of optimal resource management adapted to the diurnally-changing environmental conditions. The model in combination with this approach is able to simulate the variable biomass composition during the diurnal cycle in proximity to literature data.

Enhanced simulations of CH4 and CO2 production in permafrost-affected soils address soil moisture controls on anaerobic decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, D. E.; Zheng, J.; Moon, J. W.; Painter, S. L.; Thornton, P. E.; Gu, B.; Wullschleger, S. D.

2017-12-01

Rapid warming of Arctic ecosystems exposes soil organic carbon (SOC) to accelerated microbial decomposition, leading to increased emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) that have a positive feedback on global warming. The magnitude, timing, and form of carbon release will depend not only on changes in temperature, but also on biogeochemical and hydrological properties of soils. In this synthesis study, we assessed the decomposability of thawed organic carbon from active layer soils and permafrost from the Barrow Environmental Observatory across different microtopographic positions under anoxic conditions. The main objectives of this study were to (i) examine environmental conditions and soil properties that control anaerobic carbon decomposition and carbon release (as both CO2 and CH4); (ii) develop a common set of parameters to simulate anaerobic CO2 and CH4 production; and (iii) evaluate uncertainties generated from representations of pH and temperature effects in the current model framework. A newly developed anaerobic carbon decomposition framework simulated incubation experiment results across a range of soil water contents. Anaerobic CO2 and CH4 production have different temperature and pH sensitivities, which are not well represented in current biogeochemical models. Distinct dynamics of CH4 production at -2° C suggest methanogen biomass and growth rate limit activity in these near-frozen soils, compared to warmer temperatures. Anaerobic CO2 production is well constrained by the model using data-informed labile carbon pool and fermentation rate initialization to accurately simulate its temperature sensitivity. On the other hand, CH4 production is controlled by water content, methanogenesis biomass, and the presence of alternative electron acceptors, producing a high temperature sensitivity with large uncertainties for methanogenesis. This set of environmental constraints to methanogenesis is likely to undergo drastic changes due to permafrost thawing, and extrapolation of methanogenesis rates into a future warmer climate remains challenging.

European vegetation during Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage-3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntley, Brian; Alfano, Mary J. o.; Allen, Judy R. M.; Pollard, Dave; Tzedakis, Polychronis C.; de Beaulieu, Jacques-Louis; Grüger, Eberhard; Watts, Bill

2003-03-01

European vegetation during representative "warm" and "cold" intervals of stage-3 was inferred from pollen analytical data. The inferred vegetation differs in character and spatial pattern from that of both fully glacial and fully interglacial conditions and exhibits contrasts between warm and cold intervals, consistent with other evidence for stage-3 palaeoenvironmental fluctuations. European vegetation thus appears to have been an integral component of millennial environmental fluctuations during stage-3; vegetation responded to this scale of environmental change and through feedback mechanisms may have had effects upon the environment. The pollen-inferred vegetation was compared with vegetation simulated using the BIOME 3.5 vegetation model for climatic conditions simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM2) nested within a coupled global climate and vegetation model (GENESIS-BIOME). Despite some discrepancies in detail, both approaches capture the principal features of the present vegetation of Europe. The simulated vegetation for stage-3 differs markedly from that inferred from pollen analytical data, implying substantial discrepancy between the simulated climate and that actually prevailing. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the simulated climate is too warm and probably has too short a winter season. These discrepancies may reflect incorrect specification of sea surface temperature or sea-ice conditions and may be exacerbated by vegetation-climate feedback in the coupled global model.

JAMS - a software platform for modular hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kralisch, Sven; Fischer, Christian

2015-04-01

Current challenges of understanding and assessing the impacts of climate and land use changes on environmental systems demand for an ever-increasing integration of data and process knowledge in corresponding simulation models. Software frameworks that allow for a seamless creation of integrated models based on less complex components (domain models, process simulation routines) have therefore gained increasing attention during the last decade. JAMS is an Open-Source software framework that has been especially designed to cope with the challenges of eco-hydrological modelling. This is reflected by (i) its flexible approach for representing time and space, (ii) a strong separation of process simulation components from the declarative description of more complex models using domain specific XML, (iii) powerful analysis and visualization functions for spatial and temporal input and output data, and (iv) parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis functions commonly used in environmental modelling. Based on JAMS, different hydrological and nutrient-transport simulation models were implemented and successfully applied during the last years. We will present the JAMS core concepts and give an overview of models, simulation components and support tools available for that framework. Sample applications will be used to underline the advantages of component-based model designs and to show how JAMS can be used to address the challenges of integrated hydrological modelling.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiong, Wei; Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, M.

Crop models are increasingly used to assess impacts of climate change/variability and management practices on productivity and environmental performance of alternative cropping systems. Calibration is an important procedure to improve reliability of model simulations, especially for large area applications. However, global-scale crop model calibration has rarely been exercised due to limited data availability and expensive computing cost. Here we present a simple approach to calibrate Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model for a global implementation of rice. We identify four parameters (potential heat unit – PHU, planting density – PD, harvest index – HI, and biomass energy ratio – BER)more » and calibrate them regionally to capture the spatial pattern of reported rice yield in 2000. Model performance is assessed by comparing simulated outputs with independent FAO national data. The comparison demonstrates that the global calibration scheme performs satisfactorily in reproducing the spatial pattern of rice yield, particularly in main rice production areas. Spatial agreement increases substantially when more parameters are selected and calibrated, but with varying efficiencies. Among the parameters, PHU and HI exhibit the highest efficiencies in increasing the spatial agreement. Simulations with different calibration strategies generate a pronounced discrepancy of 5–35% in mean yields across latitude bands, and a small to moderate difference in estimated yield variability and yield changing trend for the period of 1981–2000. Present calibration has little effects in improving simulated yield variability and trends at both regional and global levels, suggesting further works are needed to reproduce temporal variability of reported yields. This study highlights the importance of crop models’ calibration, and presents the possibility of a transparent and consistent up scaling approach for global crop simulations given current availability of global databases of weather, soil, crop calendar, fertilizer and irrigation management information, and reported yield.« less

Acclimation of microorganisms to harsh soil crust conditions: Experimental and genomic approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raanan, Hagai; Kaplan, Aaron

2015-04-01

Biological soil crusts (BSC) are formed by the adhesion of sand particles to cyanobacterial exo- polysaccharides and play an important role in stabilizing sandy desert. Its destruction promotes desertification. These organisms cope with extreme temperatures, excess light and frequent hydration/dehydration cycles; the mechanisms involved are largely unknown. With the genome of newly sequenced Leptolyngbya, isolated from Nizzana BSC, we conduct comparative genomics of three desiccation tolerant cyanobacteria. This yield 46 unique genes, some of them similar to genes involve in sporulation of the gram positive bacteria Bacillus. In order to understand the molecular mechanisms taking place during desiccation we built an environmental chamber capable of simulating dynamic changes of environmental conditions in the crust. This chamber allows us to perform repetitive and accurate desiccation/rehydration experiments and follow cyanobacterial physiological and molecular response to such environmental changes. When we compared fast desiccation (less than 5 min) of isolated cyanobacteria to simulation of natural desiccation, we observed a 60% lower fluorescence recovery rate. The extent of damage from desiccation depended on the stress conditions during the dry period. These results suggest that cyanobacteria activated protection mechanisms in response to desiccation stress but which were not activated in 5 min desiccation tests. Gene expression patterns during desiccation are being analyzed in order to provide a better understanding of desiccation stress protection mechanisms.

Do dynamic global vegetation models capture the seasonality of carbon fluxes in the Amazon basin? A data-model intercomparison

DOE PAGES

Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Levine, Naomi M.; Christoffersen, Bradley O.; ...

2016-08-29

To predict forest response to long-term climate change with high confidence requires that dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) be successfully tested against ecosystem response to short-term variations in environmental drivers, including regular seasonal patterns. Here, we used an integrated dataset from four forests in the Brasil flux network, spanning a range of dry-season intensities and lengths, to determine how well four state-of-the-art models (IBIS, ED2, JULES, and CLM3.5) simulated the seasonality of carbon exchanges in Amazonian tropical forests. We found that most DGVMs poorly represented the annual cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP), of photosynthetic capacity (Pc), and of othermore » fluxes and pools. Models simulated consistent dry-season declines in GPP in the equatorial Amazon (Manaus K34, Santarem K67, and Caxiuanã CAX); a contrast to observed GPP increases. Model simulated dry-season GPP reductions were driven by an external environmental factor, ‘soil water stress’ and consequently by a constant or decreasing photosynthetic infrastructure (Pc), while observed dry-season GPP resulted from a combination of internal biological (leaf-flush and abscission and increased Pc) and environmental (incoming radiation) causes. Moreover, we found models generally overestimated observed seasonal net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and respiration (Re) at equatorial locations. In contrast, a southern Amazon forest (Jarú RJA) exhibited dry-season declines in GPP and Re consistent with most DGVMs simulations. While water limitation was represented in models and the primary driver of seasonal photosynthesis in southern Amazonia, changes in internal biophysical processes, light-harvesting adaptations (e.g., variations in leaf area index (LAI) and increasing leaf-level assimilation rate related to leaf demography), and allocation lags between leaf and wood, dominated equatorial Amazon carbon flux dynamics and were deficient or absent from current model formulations. In conclusion, correctly simulating flux seasonality at tropical forests requires a greater understanding and the incorporation of internal biophysical mechanisms in future model developments.« less

Do dynamic global vegetation models capture the seasonality of carbon fluxes in the Amazon basin? A data-model intercomparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Levine, Naomi M.; Christoffersen, Bradley O.

To predict forest response to long-term climate change with high confidence requires that dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) be successfully tested against ecosystem response to short-term variations in environmental drivers, including regular seasonal patterns. Here, we used an integrated dataset from four forests in the Brasil flux network, spanning a range of dry-season intensities and lengths, to determine how well four state-of-the-art models (IBIS, ED2, JULES, and CLM3.5) simulated the seasonality of carbon exchanges in Amazonian tropical forests. We found that most DGVMs poorly represented the annual cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP), of photosynthetic capacity (Pc), and of othermore » fluxes and pools. Models simulated consistent dry-season declines in GPP in the equatorial Amazon (Manaus K34, Santarem K67, and Caxiuanã CAX); a contrast to observed GPP increases. Model simulated dry-season GPP reductions were driven by an external environmental factor, ‘soil water stress’ and consequently by a constant or decreasing photosynthetic infrastructure (Pc), while observed dry-season GPP resulted from a combination of internal biological (leaf-flush and abscission and increased Pc) and environmental (incoming radiation) causes. Moreover, we found models generally overestimated observed seasonal net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and respiration (Re) at equatorial locations. In contrast, a southern Amazon forest (Jarú RJA) exhibited dry-season declines in GPP and Re consistent with most DGVMs simulations. While water limitation was represented in models and the primary driver of seasonal photosynthesis in southern Amazonia, changes in internal biophysical processes, light-harvesting adaptations (e.g., variations in leaf area index (LAI) and increasing leaf-level assimilation rate related to leaf demography), and allocation lags between leaf and wood, dominated equatorial Amazon carbon flux dynamics and were deficient or absent from current model formulations. In conclusion, correctly simulating flux seasonality at tropical forests requires a greater understanding and the incorporation of internal biophysical mechanisms in future model developments.« less

Tropical Tree Trait Diversity Enhances Forest Biomass Resilience in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakschewski, B.; Kirsten, T.; von Bloh, W.; Poorter, L.; Pena-Claros, M.; Boit, A.

2016-12-01

Functional diversity of ecosystems has been found to increase ecosystem functions and therefore enhance ecosystem resilience against environmental stressors. However, global carbon-cycle and biosphere models still classify the global vegetation into a relatively small number of distinct plant functional types (PFT) with constant features over space and time. Therefore, those models might underestimate the resilience and adaptive capacity of natural vegetation under climate change by ignoring positive effects that functional diversity might bring about. We diversified a set a of selected tree traits in a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJmL). In the new subversion, called LPJmL-FIT, Amazon region biomass stocks and forest structure appear significantly more resilient against climate change. Enhanced tree trait diversity enables the simulated rainforests to adjust to new environmental conditions via ecological sorting. These results may stimulate a new debate on the value of biodiversity for climate change mitigation.

Simulation of Changes in the Near-Surface Soil Freeze/Thaw Cycle Using CLM4.5 With Four Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Donglin; Wang, Aihui; Li, Duo; Hua, Wei

2018-03-01

Change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle is critical for assessments of hydrological activity, ecosystems, and climate change. Previous studies investigated the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle change mostly based on in situ observations and satellite monitoring. Here numerical simulation method is tested to estimate the long-term change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle in response to recent climate warming for its application to predictions. Four simulations are performed at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution from 1979 to 2009 using the Community Land Model version 4.5, each driven by one of the four atmospheric forcing data sets (i.e., one default Climate Research Unit-National Centers for Environmental Prediction [CRUNCEP] and three newly developed Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim). The observations from 299 weather stations in both Russia and China are employed to validate the simulated results. The results show that all simulations reasonably reproduce the observed variations in the ground temperature, the freeze start and end dates, and the freeze duration (the correlation coefficients range from 0.47 to 0.99, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies range from 0.19 to 0.98). Part of the simulations also exactly simulate the trends of the ground temperature, the freeze start and end dates, and the freeze duration. Of the four simulations, the results from the simulation using the CRUNCEP data set show the best overall agreement with the in situ observations, indicating that the CRUNCEP data set could be preferentially considered as the basic atmospheric forcing data set for future prediction. The simulated area-averaged annual freeze duration shortened by 8.03 days on average from 1979 to 2009, with an uncertainty (one standard deviation) of 0.67 days caused by the different atmospheric forcing data sets. These results address the performance of numerical model in simulating the long-term changes in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle and the role of different atmospheric forcing data sets in the simulation, which are useful for the prediction of future freeze/thaw dynamics.

A Web-Based Modelling Platform for Interactive Exploration of Regional Responses to Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, I.

2014-12-01

Climate change adaptation is a complex human-environmental problem that is framed by the uncertainty in impacts and the adaptation choices available, but is also bounded by real-world constraints such as future resource availability and environmental and institutional capacities. Educating the next generation of informed decision-makers that will be able to make knowledgeable responses to global climate change impacts requires them to have access to information that is credible, accurate, easy to understand, and appropriate. However, available resources are too often produced by inaccessible models for scenario simulations chosen by researchers hindering exploration and enquiry. This paper describes the interactive exploratory web-based CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment (IA) Platform (www.climsave.eu/iap) that aims to democratise climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability modelling. The regional version of the Platform contain linked simulation models (of the urban, agriculture, forestry, water and biodiversity sectors), probabilistic climate scenarios and socio-economic scenarios, that enable users to select their inputs (climate and socioeconomic), rapidly run the models using their input variable settings and view their chosen outputs. The interface of the CLIMSAVE IA Platform is designed to facilitate a two-way iterative process of dialogue and exploration of "what if's" to enable a wide range of users to improve their understanding surrounding impacts, adaptation responses and vulnerability of natural resources and ecosystem services under uncertain futures. This paper will describe the evolution of the Platform and demonstrate how using its holistic framework (multi sector / ecosystem service; cross-sectoral, climate and socio-economic change) will help to assist learning around the challenging concepts of responding to global change.

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, J. M.

2013-12-01

Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation of toxic substances. The capability of the Framework to address cumulative impacts will be demonstrated for freshwater ecosystem services and mountaintop mining.

Quantitative simulation of intracellular signaling cascades in a Virtual Liver: estimating dose dependent changes in hepatocellular proliferation and apoptosis

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA Virtual Liver (v-Liver™) is developing an approach to predict dose-dependent hepatotoxicity as an in vivo tissue level response using in vitro data. The v-Liver accomplishes this using an in silico agent-based systems model that dynamically integrates environmental exp...

Application of SWAT to assess the effects of land use change in the Murchison Bay catchment in Uganda

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a versatile model presently used worldwide to evaluate water quality and hydrological concerns under varying land use and environmental conditions. In this study, SWAT was used to simulate streamflow and to estimate sediment yield and nutrients loss from ...

InSTREAM: the individual-based stream trout research and environmental assessment model

Treesearch

Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey; Stephen K. Jackson; Roland H. Lamberson

2009-01-01

This report documents Version 4.2 of InSTREAM, including its formulation, software, and application to research and management problems. InSTREAM is a simulation model designed to understand how stream and river salmonid populations respond to habitat alteration, including altered flow, temperature, and turbidity regimes and changes in channel morphology. The model...

Studies of vehicle lane-changing dynamics and its effect on traffic efficiency, safety and environmental impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiang; Sun, Jian-Qiao

2017-02-01

Drivers often change lanes on the road to maintain desired speed and to avoid slow vehicles, pedestrians, obstacles and lane closure. Understanding the effect of lane-changing on the traffic is an important topic in designing optimal traffic control systems. This paper presents a comprehensive study of this topic. We review the theory of microscopic dynamic car-following models and the lane-changing models, propose additional lane-changing rules to deal with moving bottleneck and lane reduction, and investigate the effects of lane-changing on the traffic efficiency, traffic safety and fuel consumption as a function of different variables including the distance of the emergency sign ahead of the lane closure, speed limit, traffic density, etc. Extensive simulations of the traffic system have been carried out in different scenarios. A number of important findings of the effect of various factors on the traffic are reported. These findings provide guidance on the traffic management and are important to the designers and engineers of modern highway or inner city roads to achieve high traffic efficiency and safety with minimum environmental impact.

Predicting habitat suitability and geographic distribution of anchovy (Engraulis ringens) due to climate change in the coastal areas off Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Claudio; Andrade, Isabel; Yáñez, Eleuterio; Hormazabal, Samuel; Barbieri, María Ángela; Aranis, Antonio; Böhm, Gabriela

2016-08-01

The effects of climate change on ocean conditions will have impacts on fish stocks, primarily through physiological and behavioural effects, such as changes in growth, reproduction, mortality and distribution. Habitat and distribution predictions for marine fishery species under climate change scenarios are important for understanding the overall impacts of such global changes on the human society and on the ecosystem. In this study, we examine the impacts of climate change on anchovy fisheries off Chile using predicted changes in global models according to the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) and IPCC high future CO2 emission scenario A2, habitat suitability index (HSI) models and satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) estimates from high-resolution regional models for the simulation period 2015-2065. Predictions of SST from global climate models were regionalised using the Delta statistical downscaling technique. Predictions of chlorophyll-a were developed using historical Chl-a and SST (2003-2013) satellite data and applying a harmonic model. The results show an increase in SST of up to 2.5 °C by 2055 in the north and central-south area for an A2 scenario. The habitat suitability index model was developed using historical (2001-2011) monthly fisheries and environmental data. The catch per unit effort (CPUE) was used as an abundance index in developing the HSI models and was calculated as the total catch (ton) by hold capacity (m3) in a 10‧ × 10‧ fishing grid square of anchovy, integrated over one month of fishing activity. The environmental data included the distance to coast (DC), thermal (SST) and food availability (Chl-a) conditions. The HSI modelling consists of estimating SI curves based on available evidence regarding the optimum range of environmental conditions for anchovy and estimating an integrated HSI using the Arithmetic Mean Model (AMM) method. The results of this work show that the model has produced robust estimates of habitat suitability and geographic distribution off Chile and has been especially effective in capturing the spatial and temporal variability of CPUE. Using IDRISI geographical information system (GIS), these HSI models simulated monthly changes in the habitat suitability (i.e., relative abundance) and distribution of anchovy off Chile forced by changes in the regionalised SST and Chl-a as projected by the NCAR model under the A2 emission scenario. The simulations predicted a moderate negative change of 17% and 13% for the north and central-south areas, respectively, in the habitat suitability (i.e., potential relative abundance) of anchovy by 2055.

The role of the geophysical template and environmental regimes in controlling stream-living trout populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Penaluna, Brooke E.; Railsback, Steve F.; Dunham, Jason B.; Johnson, S.; Bilby, Richard E.; Skaugset, Arne E.

2015-01-01

The importance of multiple processes and instream factors to aquatic biota has been explored extensively, but questions remain about how local spatiotemporal variability of aquatic biota is tied to environmental regimes and the geophysical template of streams. We used an individual-based trout model to explore the relative role of the geophysical template versus environmental regimes on biomass of trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii). We parameterized the model with observed data from each of the four headwater streams (their local geophysical template and environmental regime) and then ran 12 simulations where we replaced environmental regimes (stream temperature, flow, turbidity) of a given stream with values from each neighboring stream while keeping the geophysical template fixed. We also performed single-parameter sensitivity analyses on the model results from each of the four streams. Although our modeled findings show that trout biomass is most responsive to changes in the geophysical template of streams, they also reveal that biomass is restricted by available habitat during seasonal low flow, which is a product of both the stream’s geophysical template and flow regime. Our modeled results suggest that differences in the geophysical template among streams render trout more or less sensitive to environmental change, emphasizing the importance of local fish–habitat relationships in streams.

Pseudo-global warming controls on the intensity and morphology of extreme convective storm events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trapp, R. J.

2015-12-01

This research seeks to answer the basic question of how current-day extreme convective storm events might be represented under future anthropogenic climate change. We adapt the "pseudo-global warming" (PGW) methodology employed by Lackmann (2013, 2015) and others, who have investigated flooding and tropical cyclone events under climate change. Here, we exploit coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM data contributed to the CMIP5 archive, and take the mean 3D atmospheric state simulated during May 1990-1999 and subtract it from that simulated during May 2090-2099. Such 3D changes in temperature, humidity, geopotential height, and winds are added to synoptic/meso-scale analyses (NAM-ANL) of specific events, and this modified atmospheric state is then used for initial and boundary conditions for real-data WRF model simulations of the events at high resolution. Comparison of an ensemble of these simulations with control (CTRL) simulations facilitates assessment of PGW effects. In contrast to the robust development of supercellular convection in our CTRL simulations, the combined effects of increased CIN and decreased forcing under PGW led to a failure of convection initiation in many of our ensemble members. Those members that had sufficient matching between the CIN and forcing tended to generate stronger convective updrafts than in the CTRL simulations, because of the relatively higher CAPE under PGW. And, the members with enhanced updrafts also tended to have enhanced vertical rotation. In fact, such mesocyclonic rotation and attendant supercellular morphology were even found in simulations that were driven with PGW-reduced environmental wind shear.

Control of complex physically simulated robot groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brogan, David C.

2001-10-01

Actuated systems such as robots take many forms and sizes but each requires solving the difficult task of utilizing available control inputs to accomplish desired system performance. Coordinated groups of robots provide the opportunity to accomplish more complex tasks, to adapt to changing environmental conditions, and to survive individual failures. Similarly, groups of simulated robots, represented as graphical characters, can test the design of experimental scenarios and provide autonomous interactive counterparts for video games. The complexity of writing control algorithms for these groups currently hinders their use. A combination of biologically inspired heuristics, search strategies, and optimization techniques serve to reduce the complexity of controlling these real and simulated characters and to provide computationally feasible solutions.

Compromise-based Robust Prioritization of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Watershed Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Chung, E. S.

2014-12-01

This study suggests a robust prioritization framework for climate change adaptation strategies under multiple climate change scenarios with a case study of selecting sites for reusing treated wastewater (TWW) in a Korean urban watershed. The framework utilizes various multi-criteria decision making techniques, including the VIKOR method and the Shannon entropy-based weights. In this case study, the sustainability of TWW use is quantified with indicator-based approaches with the DPSIR framework, which considers both hydro-environmental and socio-economic aspects of the watershed management. Under the various climate change scenarios, the hydro-environmental responses to reusing TWW in potential alternative sub-watersheds are determined using the Hydrologic Simulation Program in Fortran (HSPF). The socio-economic indicators are obtained from the statistical databases. Sustainability scores for multiple scenarios are estimated individually and then integrated with the proposed approach. At last, the suggested framework allows us to prioritize adaptation strategies in a robust manner with varying levels of compromise between utility-based and regret-based strategies.

Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature

PubMed Central

Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua

2015-01-01

Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates. PMID:25761457

A generic multibody simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hopping, K. A.; Kohn, W.

1986-01-01

Described is a dynamic simulation package which can be configured for orbital test scenarios involving multiple bodies. The rotational and translational state integration methods are selectable for each individual body and may be changed during a run if necessary. Characteristics of the bodies are determined by assigning components consisting of mass properties, forces, and moments, which are the outputs of user-defined environmental models. Generic model implementation is facilitated by a transformation processor which performs coordinate frame inversions. Transformations are defined in the initialization file as part of the simulation configuration. The simulation package includes an initialization processor, which consists of a command line preprocessor, a general purpose grammar, and a syntax scanner. These permit specifications of the bodies, their interrelationships, and their initial states in a format that is not dependent on a particular test scenario.

Observations and Modelling of Alternative Tree Cover States of the Boreal Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abis, B.; Brovkin, V.

2017-12-01

Recently, multimodality of the tree cover distribution of the boreal forests has been detected, revealing the existence of three alternative vegetation modes. Identifying which are the regions with a potential for alternative tree cover states, and assessing which are the main factors underlying their existence, is important to project future change of natural vegetation cover and its effect on climate.Through the use of generalised additive models and phase-space analysis, we study the link between tree cover distribution and eight globally-observed environmental factors, such as rainfall, temperature, and permafrost distribution. Using a classification based on these factors, we show the location of areas with potentially alternative tree cover states under the same environmental conditions in the boreal region. Furthermore, to explain the multimodality found in the data and the asymmetry between North America and Eurasia, we study a conceptual model based on tree species competition, and use it to simulate the sensitivity of tree cover to changes in environmental factors.We find that the link between individual environmental variables and tree cover differs regionally. Nonetheless, environmental conditions uniquely determine the vegetation state among the three dominant modes in ˜95% of the cases. On the other hand, areas with potentially alternative tree cover states encompass ˜1.1 million km2, and correspond to possible transition zones with a reduced resilience to disturbances. Employing our conceptual model, we show that multimodality can be explained through competition between tree species with different adaptations to environmental factors and disturbances. Moreover, the model is able to reproduce the asymmetry in tree species distribution between Eurasia and North America. Finally, we find that changes in permafrost could be associated with bifurcation points of the model, corroborating the importance of permafrost in a changing climate.

Evaluation of Low Earth Orbit Environmental Effects on International Space Station Thermal Control Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dever, Joyce A.; Rutledge, Sharon K.; Hasegawa, Mark M.; Reed, Charles K.

1998-01-01

Samples of International Space Station (ISS) thermal control coatings were exposed to simulated low Earth orbit (LEO) environmental conditions to determine effects on optical properties. In one test, samples of the white paint coating Z-93P were coated with outgassed products from Tefzel(R) (ethylene tetrafluoroethylene copolymer) power cable insulation as-may occur on ISS. These samples were then exposed, along with an uncontaminated Z-93P witness sample, to vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation to determine solar absorptance degradation. The Z-93P samples coated with Tefzel(R) outgassing products experienced greater increases in solar absorptance than witness samples not coated with Tefzel(R) outgassing products. In another test, samples of second surface silvered Teflon(R) FEP (fluorinated ethylene propylene), SiO. (where x=2)-coated silvered Teflon(R) FEP, and Z-93P witness samples were exposed to the combined environments of atomic oxygen and VLTV radiation to determine optical properties changes due to these simulated ISS environmental effects. This test verified the durability of these materials in the absence of contaminants.

Reservoir Performance Under Future Climate For Basins With Different Hydrologic Sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mateus, M. C.; Tullos, D. D.

2013-12-01

In addition to long-standing uncertainties related to variable inflows and market price of power, reservoir operators face a number of new uncertainties related to hydrologic nonstationarity, changing environmental regulations, and rapidly growing water and energy demands. This study investigates the impact, sensitivity, and uncertainty of changing hydrology on hydrosystem performance across different hydrogeologic settings. We evaluate the performance of reservoirs in the Santiam River basin, including a case study in the North Santiam Basin, with high permeability and extensive groundwater storage, and the South Santiam Basin, with low permeability, little groundwater storage and rapid runoff response. The modeling objective is to address the following study questions: (1) for the two hydrologic regimes, how does the flood management, water supply, and environmental performance of current reservoir operations change under future 2.5, 50 and 97.5 percentile streamflow projections; and (2) how much change in inflow is required to initiate a failure to meet downstream minimum or maximum flows in the future. We couple global climate model results with a rainfall-runoff model and a formal Bayesian uncertainty analysis to simulate future inflow hydrographs as inputs to a reservoir operations model. To evaluate reservoir performance under a changing climate, we calculate reservoir refill reliability, changes in flood frequency, and reservoir time and volumetric reliability of meeting minimum spring and summer flow target. Reservoir performance under future hydrology appears to vary with hydrogeology. We find higher sensitivity to floods for the North Santiam Basin and higher sensitivity to minimum flow targets for the South Santiam Basin. Higher uncertainty is related with basins with a more complex hydrologeology. Results from model simulations contribute to understanding of the reliability and vulnerability of reservoirs to a changing climate.

Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.

2009-04-01

In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information that can serve as basis for further impact analysis. An exemplary simulation study with LandSHIFT is presented, based on scenario assumptions from the UNEP Global Environmental Outlook 4. Time horizon of the analysis is the year 2050. Changes of future food production on country level are computed by the agro-economy model IMPACT as a function of demography, economic development and global trade pattern. Together with scenario assumptions on climatic change and population growth, this data serves as model input to compute the changing land-use und land-cover. The continental and global scale model results are then analysed with respect to changes in the spatial pattern of natural vegetation as well as the resulting effects on evapotranspiration processes and land surface parameters. Furthermore, possible linkages of LandSHIFT to the different components of Earth System models (e.g. climate and natural vegetation) are discussed.

Scientific analysis is essential to assess biofuel policy effects: in response to the paper by Kim and Dale on "Indirect land use change for biofuels: Testing predictions and improving analytical methodologies"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kline, Keith L; Oladosu, Gbadebo A; Dale, Virginia H

2011-01-01

Vigorous debate on the effects of biofuels derives largely from the changes in land use estimated using economic models designed mainly for the analysis of agricultural trade and markets. The models referenced for land-use change (LUC) analysis in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Final Rule on the Renewable Fuel Standard include GTAP, FAPRI-CARD, and FASOM. To address bioenergy impacts, these models were expanded and modified to facilitate simulations of hypothesized LUC. However, even when models use similar basic assumptions and data, the range of LUC results can vary by ten-fold or more. While the market dynamics simulated in these modelsmore » include processes that are important in estimating effects of biofuel policies, the models have not been validated for estimating land-use changes and employ crucial assumptions and simplifications that contradict empirical evidence.« less

Effects of environmental change on groundwater recharge in the Desert Southwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phillips, Fred M.; Walvoord, Michelle Ann; Small, Eric E.; Hogan, James F.; Phillips, Fred M.; Scanlon, Bridget R.

2004-01-01

Climate and other environmental conditions have varied in the past, and will almost certainly vary significantly in the near future. The response of groundwater recharge to changes in environmental conditions is thus a matter of active concem for water-resources management. The major mechanisms for this response of recharge are three-fold. First, changes in vegetation communities can shift the water balance at the base of the root zone, increasing or decreasing the amount of recharge. Second, variations in the amount of runoff can affect channel recharge. Finally, shifts in the seasonality of precipitation can strongly affect the fraction that is evapotranspired back into the atmosphere and thus affect the amount that becomes recharge. Increases in recharge (defined as the water flux across the water table) may in some cases significantly increase fluxes through regional aquifers, but in other cases, depending on the hydrogeology, may only result in increased streamflow or evapotranspiration within the recharge area. Basins with relatively low maximum elevations, deep water tables, thin soils, and highly permeable recharge areas experience the largest recharge response to increases in precipitation. The relatively well-known paleoenvironmental history of the American Southwest can be compared with various lines of evidence for changes in recharge. These lines of evidence include timing of speleothem formation, chloride profiles in thick vadose zones, changes in water table shown by subsurface calcite precipitation, and expanded groundwater discharge areas. This evidence indicates that the wettest periods of the past 25 ka, which were generally between 20 and 13 ka, were also periods of enhanced vadose zone fluxes and aquifer discharge. Climate-driven changes in recharge appear to have been substantially mediated through changes in vegetation. This evidence for strong recharge response to past environmental changes indicates that expected future climate and environmental change will also cause changes in recharge. The ability to adequately predict future changes in recharge will depend on developing process-based numerical models that can simulate coupled climate/vegetation/ vadose zone processes and incorporate the outputs into groundwater/surface water models that can resolve processes at scales ranging from the hillslope to the basin. 

Combining state-and-transition simulations and species distribution models to anticipate the effects of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Frid, Leonardo; Chang, Tony; Piekielek, N. B.; Hansen, Andrew J.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2015-01-01

State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) are known for their ability to explore the combined effects of multiple disturbances, ecological dynamics, and management actions on vegetation. However, integrating the additional impacts of climate change into STSMs remains a challenge. We address this challenge by combining an STSM with species distribution modeling (SDM). SDMs estimate the probability of occurrence of a given species based on observed presence and absence locations as well as environmental and climatic covariates. Thus, in order to account for changes in habitat suitability due to climate change, we used SDM to generate continuous surfaces of species occurrence probabilities. These data were imported into ST-Sim, an STSM platform, where they dictated the probability of each cell transitioning between alternate potential vegetation types at each time step. The STSM was parameterized to capture additional processes of vegetation growth and disturbance that are relevant to a keystone species in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem—whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis). We compared historical model runs against historical observations of whitebark pine and a key disturbance agent (mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae), and then projected the simulation into the future. Using this combination of correlative and stochastic simulation models, we were able to reproduce historical observations and identify key data gaps. Results indicated that SDMs and STSMs are complementary tools, and combining them is an effective way to account for the anticipated impacts of climate change, biotic interactions, and disturbances, while also allowing for the exploration of management options.

Parallel computing method for simulating hydrological processesof large rivers under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Chen, Y.

2016-12-01

Climate change is one of the proverbial global environmental problems in the world.Climate change has altered the watershed hydrological processes in time and space distribution, especially in worldlarge rivers.Watershed hydrological process simulation based on physically based distributed hydrological model can could have better results compared with the lumped models.However, watershed hydrological process simulation includes large amount of calculations, especially in large rivers, thus needing huge computing resources that may not be steadily available for the researchers or at high expense, this seriously restricted the research and application. To solve this problem, the current parallel method are mostly parallel computing in space and time dimensions.They calculate the natural features orderly thatbased on distributed hydrological model by grid (unit, a basin) from upstream to downstream.This articleproposes ahigh-performancecomputing method of hydrological process simulation with high speedratio and parallel efficiency.It combinedthe runoff characteristics of time and space of distributed hydrological model withthe methods adopting distributed data storage, memory database, distributed computing, parallel computing based on computing power unit.The method has strong adaptability and extensibility,which means it canmake full use of the computing and storage resources under the condition of limited computing resources, and the computing efficiency can be improved linearly with the increase of computing resources .This method can satisfy the parallel computing requirements ofhydrological process simulation in small, medium and large rivers.

Agricultural policy environmental eXtender model simulation of climate change impacts on runoff from a small no-till watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Long-term hydrologic data sets are required to quantify the impacts of management, and climate on runoff at the field scale where management practices are applied. This study was conducted to evaluate the impacts of long-term management and climate on runoff from a small watershed managed with no-ti...

Learning to Question: The Roles of Multiple Hypotheses, Successive Approximations, Balloons and Toilet Paper in University Science Programs of Southwestern Amazonia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, I. Foster

2008-01-01

Learning to question is essential for determining pathways of conservation and development in southwestern Amazonia during a time of rapid global environmental change. Teaching such an approach in graduate science programs in regional universities can be done using play-acting and simulation exercises. Multiple working hypotheses help students…

Symbiotic specificity, association patterns, and function determine community responses to global changes: defining critical research areas for coral-Symbiodinium symbioses.

PubMed

Fabina, Nicholas S; Putnam, Hollie M; Franklin, Erik C; Stat, Michael; Gates, Ruth D

2013-11-01

Climate change-driven stressors threaten the persistence of coral reefs worldwide. Symbiotic relationships between scleractinian corals and photosynthetic endosymbionts (genus Symbiodinium) are the foundation of reef ecosystems, and these associations are differentially impacted by stress. Here, we couple empirical data from the coral reefs of Moorea, French Polynesia, and a network theoretic modeling approach to evaluate how patterns in coral-Symbiodinium associations influence community stability under climate change. To introduce the effect of climate perturbations, we simulate local 'extinctions' that represent either the loss of coral species or the ability to engage in symbiotic interactions. Community stability is measured by determining the duration and number of species that persist through the simulated extinctions. Our results suggest that four factors greatly increase coral-Symbiodinium community stability in response to global changes: (i) the survival of generalist hosts and symbionts maximizes potential symbiotic unions; (ii) elevated symbiont diversity provides redundant or complementary symbiotic functions; (iii) compatible symbiotic assemblages create the potential for local recolonization; and (iv) the persistence of certain traits associate with symbiotic diversity and redundancy. Symbiodinium may facilitate coral persistence through novel environmental regimes, but this capacity is mediated by symbiotic specificity, association patterns, and the functional performance of the symbionts. Our model-based approach identifies general trends and testable hypotheses in coral-Symbiodinium community responses. Future studies should consider similar methods when community size and/or environmental complexity preclude experimental approaches. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dual-compartmental transcriptomic + proteomic analysis of a marine endosymbiosis exposed to environmental change.

PubMed

Mayfield, Anderson B; Wang, Yu-Bin; Chen, Chii-Shiarng; Chen, Shu-Hwa; Lin, Chung-Yen

2016-12-01

As significant anthropogenic pressures are putting undue stress on the world's oceans, there has been a concerted effort to understand how marine organisms respond to environmental change. Transcriptomic approaches, in particular, have been readily employed to document the mRNA-level response of a plethora of marine invertebrates exposed to an array of simulated stress scenarios, with the tacit and untested assumption being that the respective proteins show a corresponding trend. To better understand the degree of congruency between mRNA and protein expression in an endosymbiotic marine invertebrate, mRNAs and proteins were sequenced from the same samples of the common, Indo-Pacific coral Seriatopora hystrix exposed to stable or upwelling-simulating conditions for 1 week. Of the 167 proteins downregulated at variable temperature, only two were associated with mRNAs that were also differentially expressed between treatments. Of the 378 differentially expressed genes, none were associated with a differentially expressed protein. Collectively, these results highlight the inherent risk of inferring cellular behaviour based on mRNA expression data alone and challenge the current, mRNA-focused approach taken by most marine and many molecular biologists. © 2016 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparative study of modeling the impacts of air pollution on carbon and water cycles in terrestrial ecosystems of China during 1980-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, W.; Tian, H.; Liu, M.; Chen, G.; Lu, C.; Xu, X.; Zhang, C.; Pan, S.; Felzer, B. S.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Melillo, J. M.; Mu, Q.; Running, S.; Zhao, M.

2008-12-01

China has experienced one of the most rapid changes in the past three decades, which has resulted in and will raise lots of environment problems as undergoing further rapid development in the coming years. Severe air pollution combined with other changing environment factors such as climate variability, increasing CO2 and nitrogen deposition, land use cover and change including agronomic management, significantly have been the most serious environmental problems that have threatened the sustainability of China's ecosystems as well as its economy. We investigated the potential effects of elevated ozone (O3) along with other multiple stresses on net primary productivity (NPP) and evapotransporatioin (ET) in China's terrestrial ecosystems for the period 1980-2005, by using three process-based models including the Biom-BGC, Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) forced by the gridded data of historical tropospheric O3, climate and other environmental factors. The comparative study of the model simulations showed that elevated O3 could result in a reduction of decadal mean NPP up to 390 TgC, and a small temporal change in total ET nationwide from 1980 to 2005. However, changes in annual NPP and ET across China's terrestrial ecosystems show substantial spatial variation and the reduction rate of NPP up to 32% indicate varied sensitivity and vulnerability to elevated ozone pollution among different plant functional types. The comparative study indicates that there is an important need to test the simulated results and models' behavior against field experiments.

Visual cues in low-level flight - Implications for pilotage, training, simulation, and enhanced/synthetic vision systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foyle, David C.; Kaiser, Mary K.; Johnson, Walter W.

1992-01-01

This paper reviews some of the sources of visual information that are available in the out-the-window scene and describes how these visual cues are important for routine pilotage and training, as well as the development of simulator visual systems and enhanced or synthetic vision systems for aircraft cockpits. It is shown how these visual cues may change or disappear under environmental or sensor conditions, and how the visual scene can be augmented by advanced displays to capitalize on the pilot's excellent ability to extract visual information from the visual scene.

A simulated avalanche search and rescue mission induces temporary physiological and behavioural changes in military dogs.

PubMed

Diverio, Silvana; Barbato, Olimpia; Cavallina, Roberta; Guelfi, Gabriella; Iaboni, Martina; Zasso, Renato; Di Mari, Walter; Santoro, Michele Matteo; Knowles, Toby G

2016-09-01

Saving human lives is of paramount importance in avalanche rescue missions. Avalanche military dogs represent an invaluable resource in these operations. However, their performance can be influenced by several environmental, social and transport challenges. If too severe, these are likely to activate a range of responses to stress, which might put at risk the dogs' welfare. The aim of this study was to assess the physiological and behavioural responses of a group of military dogs to a Simulated Avalanche Search and Rescue mission (SASR). Seventeen avalanche dogs from the Italian Military Force Guardia di Finanza (SAGF dogs) were monitored during a simulated search for a buried operator in an artificial avalanche area (SASR). Heart rate (HR), body temperature (RBT) and blood samples were collected at rest the day before the trial (T0), immediately after helicopter transport at the onset of the SASR (T1), after the discovery of the buried operator (T2) and 2h later (T3). Heart rate (HR), rectal body temperature (RBT), cortisol, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), creatine kinase (CK), non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) were measured. During the search mission the behaviour of each SAGF dog was measured by focal animal sampling and qualitatively assessed by its handler and two observers. Inter-rater agreement was evaluated. Snow and environmental variables were also measured. All dogs successfully completed their search for the buried, simulated victim within 10min. The SASR was shown to exert significant increases on RBT, NEFA and cortisol (P<0.001), CK and HR (P<0.01), AST and LDH (P<0.05). These indicate the activation of a response to stress probably induced by the addition of factors such as helicopter transport, disembarking, and the search and rescue exercise. However, changes were moderate and limited over time, progressively decreasing with complete recovery at T3 except for sera cortisol that showed a slightly slower decline. More time walking within the search was related to lower RBT, conversely to walking. Standing still with head up and exploring with head-up were inversely related with HR. Agreement between handler and observers' opinions on a dog's search mission ability was found only for motivation, signalling behaviour, signs of stress and possessive reward playing. More time signalling was related to shorter search time. In conclusion, despite extreme environmental and training conditions only temporary physiological and behavioural changes were recorded in the avalanche dogs. Their excellent performance in successful simulated SASR may be attributable to extensive training and good dog-handler relationships. Simulated SASR did not seem to impair SAGF dogs' performance or welfare. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Structure of Vertical Wind Shear in Tropical Cyclone Environments: Implications for Forecasting and Predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finocchio, Peter M.

The vertical wind shear measured between 200 and 850 hPa is commonly used to diagnose environmental interactions with a tropical cyclone (TC) and to forecast the storm's intensity and structural evolution. More often than not, stronger vertical shear within this deep layer prohibits the intensification of TCs and leads to predictable asymmetries in precipitation. But such bulk measures of vertical wind shear can occasionally mislead the forecaster. In the first part of this dissertation, we use a series of idealized numerical simulations to examine how a TC responds to changing the structure of unidirectional vertical wind shear while fixing the 200-850-hPa shear magnitude. These simulations demonstrate a significant intensity response, in which shear concentrated in shallow layers of the lower troposphere prevents vortex intensification. We attribute the arrested development of TCs in lower-level shear to the intrusion of mid-level environmental air over the surface vortex early in the simulations. Convection developing on the downshear side of the storm interacts with the intruding air so as to enhance the downward flux of low-entropy air into the boundary layer. We also construct a two-dimensional intensity response surface from a set of simulations that sparsely sample the joint shear height-depth parameter space. This surface reveals regions of the two-parameter space for which TC intensity is particularly sensitive. We interpret these parameter ranges as those which lead to reduced intensity predictability. Despite the robust response to changing the shape of a sheared wind profile in idealized simulations, we do not encounter such sensitivity within a large set of reanalyzed TCs in the Northern Hemisphere. Instead, there is remarkable consistency in the structure of reanalyzed wind profiles around TCs. This is evident in the distributions of two new parameters describing the height and depth of vertical wind shear, which highlight a clear preference for shallow layers of upper-level shear. Many of the wind profiles tested in the idealized simulations have shear height or depth values on the tails of these distributions, suggesting that the environmental wind profiles around real TCs do not exhibit enough structural variability to have the clear statistical relationship to intensity change that we expected. In the final part of this dissertation, we use the reanalyzed TC environments to initialize ensembles of idealized simulations. Using a new modeling technique that allows for time-varying environments, these simulations examine the predictability implications of exposing a TC to different structures and magnitudes of vertical wind shear during its life cycle. We find that TCs in more deeply distributed vertical wind shear environments have a more uncertain intensity evolution than TCs exposed to shallower layers of upper-level shear. This higher uncertainty arises from a more marginal boundary layer environment that the deeply distributed shear establishes, which enhances the TC sensitivity to the magnitude of deep-layer shear. Simulated radar reflectivity also appears to evolve in a more uncertain fashion in environments with deeply distributed vertical shear. However, structural predictability timescales, computed as the time it takes for errors in the amplitude or phase of azimuthal asymmetries of reflectivity to saturate, are similar for wind profiles with shallow upper-level shear and deeply distributed shear. Both ensembles demonstrate predictability timescales of two to three days for the lowest azimuthal wavenumbers of amplitude and phase. As the magnitude of vertical wind shear increases to universally destructive levels, structural and intensity errors begin to decrease. Shallow upper-level shear primes the TC for a more pronounced recovery in the predictability of the wavenumber-one precipitation structure in stronger shear. The recovered low-wavenumber predictability of TC precipitation structure and the collapse in intensity spread in strong shear suggests that vertical wind shear is most effective at reducing TC predictability when its magnitude is near the threshold between favorable and unfavorable values and when it is deeply distributed through the troposphere. By isolating the effect of the environmental flow, the simulations and analyses in this dissertation offer a unique understanding of how vertical wind shear affects TCs. In particular, the results have important implications for designing and implementing future environmental observing strategies that will be critical for improving forecasts of these destructive storms.

A Numerical Study of Hurricane Erin (2001). Part 1; Model Verification and Storm Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Liguang; Braun, Scott A.; Halverson, J.; Heymsfield, G.

2006-01-01

The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Hurricane Erin (2001) at high resolution (4-km spacing) from its early development as a tropical depression on 7 September 2001, through a period of rapid intensification into a strong hurricane (8 9 September), and finally into a stage during which it maintains its intensity on 10 September. These three stages of formation, intensification, and maintenance in the simulation are in good agreement with the observed evolution of Erin. The simulation shows that during the formation and early portions of the intensification stages, intensification is favored because the environmental wind shear is weak and the system moves over a warm tongue of water. As Erin intensifies, the wind shear gradually increases with the approach of an upper-level trough and strengthening of a low-level high pressure system. By 10 September, the wind shear peaks and begins to decrease, the storm moves over slightly cooler waters, and the intensification ends. Important structural changes occur at this time as the outer precipitation shifts from the northeastern and eastern sides to the western side of the eye. A secondary wind maximum and an outer eyewall begin to develop as precipitation begins to surround the entire eye. The simulation is used to investigate the role of vertical wind shear in the changes of the precipitation structure that took place between 9 and 10 September by examining the effects of changes in storm-relative flow and changes in the shear-induced tilt. Qualitative agreement is found between the divergence pattern and advection of vorticity by the relative flow with convergence (divergence) generally associated with asymmetric inflow (outflow) in the eyewall region. The shift in the outer precipitation is consistent with a shift in the low-level relative inflow from the northeastern to the northwestern side of the storm. The changes in the relative flow are associated with changes in the environmental winds as the hurricane moves relative to the upper trough and the low-level high pressure system. Examination of the shear-induced tilt of the vortex shows that the change in the tilt direction is greater than that of the shear direction as the tilt shifts from a northerly orientation to northwesterly. Consistent with theory for adiabatic vortices, the maximum low-level convergence and upper-level divergence (and the maximum upward motion) occurs in the direction of tilt. Consequently, both mechanisms may play roles in the changes in the precipitation pattern.

Environmental fog/rain visual display system for aircraft simulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chase, W. D. (Inventor)

1982-01-01

An environmental fog/rain visual display system for aircraft simulators is described. The electronic elements of the system include a real time digital computer, a caligraphic color display which simulates landing lights of selective intensity, and a color television camera for producing a moving color display of the airport runway as depicted on a model terrain board. The mechanical simulation elements of the system include an environmental chamber which can produce natural fog, nonhomogeneous fog, rain and fog combined, or rain only. A pilot looking through the aircraft wind screen will look through the fog and/or rain generated in the environmental chamber onto a viewing screen with the simulated color image of the airport runway thereon, and observe a very real simulation of actual conditions of a runway as it would appear through actual fog and/or rain.

Mechanistic Processes Controlling Persistent Changes of Forest Canopy Structure After 2005 Amazon Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Mingjie; Liu, Junjie; Zhao, Maosheng; Yu, Yifan; Saatchi, Sassan

2017-12-01

The long-term impact of Amazonian drought on canopy structure has been observed in ground and remote sensing measurements. However, it is still unclear whether it is caused by biotic (e.g., plant structure damage) or environmental (e.g., water deficiency) factors. We used the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and radar backscatter observations from SeaWinds Scatterometer on board QuikSCAT (QSCAT) satellite to investigate the relative role of biotic and environmental factors in controlling the forest canopy disturbance and recovery processes after the 2005 Amazonian drought. We validated the CLM4.5 simulation of the drought impact and the recovery of leaf carbon (C) pool, an indicator of canopy structure, over southwestern Amazonia with QSCAT backscatter observations, which are sensitive to canopy structure change. We found that the leaf C pool simulated by CLM4.5 recovered to the 2000-2009 mean level (343 g C m-2) in 3 years after a sharp decrease in 2005, consistent with the QSCAT observed slow recovery. Through sensitivity experiments, we found that the slow C recovery was primarily due to biotic factors represented by the canopy damage and reduction of plant C pools. The recovery of soil water and the coupling between water and C pools, which is an environmental factor, only contributes 24% to the leaf C recovery. The results showed (1) the strength of scatterometer backscatter measurements in capturing canopy damage over tropical forests and in validating C cycle models and (2) the biotic factors play the dominant role in regulating the drought induced disturbance and persistent canopy changes in CLM4.5.

Evaluation of Watershed-Scale Simulations of In-Stream Pesticide Concentrations from Off-Target Spray Drift.

PubMed

Winchell, Michael F; Pai, Naresh; Brayden, Benjamin H; Stone, Chris; Whatling, Paul; Hanzas, John P; Stryker, Jody J

2018-01-01

The estimation of pesticide concentrations in surface water bodies is a critical component of the environmental risk assessment process required by regulatory agencies in North America, the European Union, and elsewhere. Pesticide transport to surface waters via deposition from off-field spray drift can be an important route of potential contamination. The spatial orientation of treated fields relative to receiving water bodies make prediction of off-target pesticide spray drift deposition and resulting aquatic estimated environmental concentrations (EECs) challenging at the watershed scale. The variability in wind conditions further complicates the simulation of the environmental processes leading to pesticide spray drift contributions to surface water. This study investigates the use of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for predicting concentrations of malathion (O,O-deimethyl thiophosphate of diethyl mercaptosuccinate) in a flowing water body when exposure is a result of off-target spray drift, and assesses the model's performance using a parameterization typical of a screening-level regulatory assessment. Six SWAT parameterizations, each including incrementally more site-specific data, are then evaluated to quantify changes in model performance. Results indicate that the SWAT model is an appropriate tool for simulating watershed scale concentrations of pesticides resulting from off-target spray drift deposition. The model predictions are significantly more accurate when the inputs and assumptions accurately reflect application practices and environmental conditions. Inclusion of detailed wind data had the most significant impact on improving model-predicted EECs in comparison to observed concentrations. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Impact of aerosol emission controls on future Arctic sea ice cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagné, M.-Ã..; Gillett, N. P.; Fyfe, J. C.

2015-10-01

We examine the response of Arctic sea ice to projected aerosol and aerosol precursor emission changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios in simulations of the Canadian Earth System Model. The overall decrease in aerosol loading causes a warming, largest over the Arctic, which leads to an annual mean reduction in sea ice extent of approximately 1 million km2 over the 21st century in all RCP scenarios. This accounts for approximately 25% of the simulated reduction in sea ice extent in RCP 4.5, and 40% of the reduction in RCP 2.5. In RCP 4.5, the Arctic ocean is projected to become ice-free during summertime in 2045, but it does not become ice-free until 2057 in simulations with aerosol precursor emissions held fixed at 2000 values. Thus, while reductions in aerosol emissions have significant health and environmental benefits, their substantial contribution to projected Arctic climate change should not be overlooked.

Comparative evaluation of test methods to simulate acoustic response of shroud-enclosed spacecraft structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

On, F. J.

1975-01-01

Test methods were evaluated to ascertain whether a spacecraft, properly tested within its shroud, could be vibroacoustic tested without the shroud, with adjustments made in the acoustic input spectra to simulate the acoustic response of the missing shroud. The evaluation was based on vibroacoustic test results obtained from a baseline model composed (1) of a spacecraft with adapter, lower support structure, and shroud; (2) of the spacecraft, adapter, and lower structure, but without the shroud; and (3) of the spacecraft and adapter only. Emphasis was placed on the magnitude of the acoustic input changes required to substitute for the shroud and the difficulty of making such input changes, and the degree of missimulation which can result from the performance of a particular, less-than optimum test. Conclusions are drawn on the advantages and disadvantages derived from the use of input spectra adjustment methods and lower support structure simulations. Test guidelines were also developed for planning and performing a launch acoustic-environmental test.

Rapid Holocene thinning of an East Antarctic outlet glacier driven by marine ice sheet instability

PubMed Central

Jones, R. S.; Mackintosh, A. N.; Norton, K. P.; Golledge, N. R.; Fogwill, C. J.; Kubik, P. W.; Christl, M.; Greenwood, S. L.

2015-01-01

Outlet glaciers grounded on a bed that deepens inland and extends below sea level are potentially vulnerable to ‘marine ice sheet instability'. This instability, which may lead to runaway ice loss, has been simulated in models, but its consequences have not been directly observed in geological records. Here we provide new surface-exposure ages from an outlet of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that reveal rapid glacier thinning occurred approximately 7,000 years ago, in the absence of large environmental changes. Glacier thinning persisted for more than two and a half centuries, resulting in hundreds of metres of ice loss. Numerical simulations indicate that ice surface drawdown accelerated when the otherwise steadily retreating glacier encountered a bedrock trough. Together, the geological reconstruction and numerical simulations suggest that centennial-scale glacier thinning arose from unstable grounding line retreat. Capturing these instability processes in ice sheet models is important for predicting Antarctica's future contribution to sea level change. PMID:26608558

Modeling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Mediterranean During the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, S.; Xoplaki, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Zorita, E.; Fleitmann, D.; Preiser-Kapeller, J.; Toreti, A., , Dr; Sargent, A. M.; Bozkurt, D.; White, S.; Haldon, J. F.; Akçer-Ön, S.; Izdebski, A.

2017-12-01

Past civilisations were influenced by complex external and internal forces, including changes in the environment, climate, politics and economy. A geographical hotspot of the interplay between those agents is the Mediterranean, a cradle of cultural and scientific development. We analyse a novel compilation of high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Mediterranean and compare them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for three historical time intervals - the Crusaders, 1095-1290 CE; the Mamluk regime in Transjordan, 1260-1516 CE; and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion, 1580-1610 CE - when environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. ESMs provide important information on the dynamical mechanisms and underlying processes that led to anomalous hydroclimatic conditions of the past. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean during the three periods cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. The integrated analysis of palaeoclimate proxies, climate reconstructions and model simulations sheds light on our understanding of past climate change and its societal impact. Finally, our research emphasises the need to further study the societal dimension of environmental and climate change in the past, in order to properly understand the role that climate has played in human history.

Estimating effects of tidal power projects and climate change on threatened and endangered marine species and their food web.

PubMed

Busch, D Shallin; Greene, Correigh M; Good, Thomas P

2013-12-01

Marine hydrokinetic power projects will operate as marine environments change in response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We considered how tidal power development and stressors resulting from climate change may affect Puget Sound species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) and their food web. We used risk tables to assess the singular and combined effects of tidal power development and climate change. Tidal power development and climate change posed risks to ESA-listed species, and risk increased with incorporation of the effects of these stressors on predators and prey of ESA-listed species. In contrast, results of a model of strikes on ESA-listed species from turbine blades suggested that few ESA-listed species are likely to be killed by a commercial-scale tidal turbine array. We applied scenarios to a food web model of Puget Sound to explore the effects of tidal power and climate change on ESA-listed species using more quantitative analytical techniques. To simulate development of tidal power, we applied results of the blade strike model. To simulate environmental changes over the next 50 years, we applied scenarios of change in primary production, plankton community structure, dissolved oxygen, ocean acidification, and freshwater flooding events. No effects of tidal power development on ESA-listed species were detected from the food web model output, but the effects of climate change on them and other members of the food web were large. Our analyses exemplify how natural resource managers might assess environmental effects of marine technologies in ways that explicitly incorporate climate change and consider multiple ESA-listed species in the context of their ecological community. Estimación de los Efectos de Proyectos de Energía de las Mareas y el Cambio Climático sobre Especies Marinas Amenazadas y en Peligro y su Red Alimentaria. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

Impact of Future Emissions and Climate Change on Surface Ozone over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, C. T.; Westervelt, D. M.; Fiore, A. M.; Rieder, H. E.; Kinney, P.; Wang, S.; Correa, G. J. P.

2017-12-01

China's immense ambient air pollution problem and world-leading greenhouse gas emissions place it at the forefront of global efforts to address these related environmental concerns. Here, we analyze the impact of ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) future emissions scenarios representative of current legislation (CLE) and maximum technically feasible emissions reductions (MFR) on surface ozone (O3) concentrations over China in the 2030s and 2050s, in the context of a changing climate. We use a suite of simulations performed with the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM3 global chemistry-climate model. To estimate the impact of climate change in isolation on Chinese air quality, we hold emissions of air pollutants including O3 precursors fixed at 2015 levels but allow climate (global sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover) to change according to decadal averages for the years 2026-2035 and 2046-2055 from a three-member ensemble of GFDL-CM3 simulations under the RCP8.5 high warming scenario. Evaluation of the present-day simulation (2015 CLE) with observations from 1497 chiefly urban air quality monitoring stations shows that simulated surface O3 is positively biased by 26 ppb on average over the domain of China. Previous studies, however, have shown that the modeled ozone response to changes in NOx emissions over the Eastern United States mirrors the magnitude and structure of observed changes in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) O3 distributions. Therefore, we use the model's simulated changes for the 2030s and 2050s to project changes in policy-relevant MDA8 O3 concentrations. We find an overall increase in MDA8 O3 for CLE scenarios in which emissions of NOx precursors are projected to increase, and under MFR scenarios, an overall decrease, with the highest changes occurring in summertime for both 2030 and 2050 MFR. Under climate change alone, the model simulates a mean summertime decrease of 1.3 ppb and wintertime increase of 3.3 ppb by 2050. Adjustment of the observed site-level MDA8 O3 distribution to reflect regionally interpolated projected changes from AM3 allows us to examine changes in the number of days in exceedance of MDA8 O3 Level I (50 ppb) and Level II (80 ppb) Chinese national ambient air quality standards.

Military Training: Observations on Efforts to Prepare Personnel to Survive Helicopter Crashes into Water

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-14

Air Force Environmental conditions simulation equipment Equipment that simulates conditions such as waves, wind, rain, thunder , lightning , and...Environmental conditions simulation equipment Equipment that simulates conditions such as waves, wind, rain, thunder , lightning , and combat sounds...items such as wave generators, heavy-duty fans to simulate high winds, strobe lights to simulate lightning , water spray and injection systems to

Satellite image time series simulation for environmental monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Tao

2014-11-01

The performance of environmental monitoring heavily depends on the availability of consecutive observation data and it turns out an increasing demand in remote sensing community for satellite image data in the sufficient resolution with respect to both spatial and temporal requirements, which appear to be conflictive and hard to tune tradeoffs. Multiple constellations could be a solution if without concerning cost, and thus it is so far interesting but very challenging to develop a method which can simultaneously improve both spatial and temporal details. There are some research efforts to deal with the problem from various aspects, a type of approaches is to enhance the spatial resolution using techniques of super resolution, pan-sharpen etc. which can produce good visual effects, but mostly cannot preserve spectral signatures and result in losing analytical value. Another type is to fill temporal frequency gaps by adopting time interpolation, which actually doesn't increase informative context at all. In this paper we presented a novel method to generate satellite images in higher spatial and temporal details, which further enables satellite image time series simulation. Our method starts with a pair of high-low resolution data set, and then a spatial registration is done by introducing LDA model to map high and low resolution pixels correspondingly. Afterwards, temporal change information is captured through a comparison of low resolution time series data, and the temporal change is then projected onto high resolution data plane and assigned to each high resolution pixel referring the predefined temporal change patterns of each type of ground objects to generate a simulated high resolution data. A preliminary experiment shows that our method can simulate a high resolution data with a good accuracy. We consider the contribution of our method is to enable timely monitoring of temporal changes through analysis of low resolution images time series only, and usage of costly high resolution data can be reduced as much as possible, and it presents an efficient solution with great cost performance to build up an economically operational monitoring service for environment, agriculture, forest, land use investigation, and other applications.

Responses of Israeli HMOs to environmental change following the National Health Insurance Law: Opening the black box.

PubMed

Gross, Revital; Harrison, Michael I

2006-04-01

Managed competition was introduced into the Israeli health care system with the enactment of the National Health Insurance (NHI) Law of 1995, which radically transformed health management organizations' (HMO) regulatory and competitive environments. We conducted an in-depth, qualitative analysis of the strategies developed by two Israeli HMOs in response to this change, and developed the concept of a "strategic repertoire" to integrate diverse theories of organizational adaptation to environmental change. Although the responses of these organizations to managed competition were broadly comparable, they diverged from one another in important ways. Our analysis highlights how the interaction among organizational history, managerial choice, and environmental constraints creates divergence in organizational responses to national policy initiatives. Policy implications arising from the findings include ways of anticipating unintended consequences of policy initiatives, such as involving provider organizations in the structuring of reform, or simulating their response in advance, based on expert knowledge of their strategic repertoires; and the need to include mechanisms for obtaining feedback on organizational responses in the implementation of reform. This will facilitate the adjustment of program regulations and incentives in response to emerging practices.

Ecosystem Services and Climate Change Considerations for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework “iemWatersheds” has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water

User manuals for the Delaware River Basin Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (DRB–WATER) and associated WATER application utilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williamson, Tanja N.; Lant, Jeremiah G.

2015-11-18

The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) is a decision support system (DSS) for the nontidal part of the Delaware River Basin (DRB) that provides a consistent and objective method of simulating streamflow under historical, forecasted, and managed conditions. WATER integrates geospatial sampling of landscape characteristics, including topographic and soil properties, with a regionally calibrated hillslope-hydrology model, an impervious-surface model, and hydroclimatic models that have been parameterized using three hydrologic response units—forested, agricultural, and developed land cover. It is this integration that enables the regional hydrologic-modeling approach used in WATER without requiring site-specific optimization or those stationary conditions inferred when using a statistical model. The DSS provides a “historical” database, ideal for simulating streamflow for 2001–11, in addition to land-cover forecasts that focus on 2030 and 2060. The WATER Application Utilities are provided with the DSS and apply change factors for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration to a 1981–2011 climatic record provided with the DSS. These change factors were derived from a suite of general circulation models (GCMs) and representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios. These change factors are based on 25-year monthly averages (normals) that are centere on 2030 and 2060. The WATER Application Utilities also can be used to apply a 2010 snapshot of water use for the DRB; a factorial approach enables scenario testing of increased or decreased water use for each simulation. Finally, the WATER Application Utilities can be used to reformat streamflow time series for input to statistical or reservoir management software. 

Integrating macro and micro scale approaches in the agent-based modeling of residential dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saeedi, Sara

2018-06-01

With the advancement of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) methods as well as data collection technologies, urban dynamics modeling substantially improved over the last several decades. The complex urban dynamics processes are most effectively modeled not at the macro-scale, but following a bottom-up approach, by simulating the decisions of individual entities, or residents. Agent-based modeling (ABM) provides the key to a dynamic M&S framework that is able to integrate socioeconomic with environmental models, and to operate at both micro and macro geographical scales. In this study, a multi-agent system is proposed to simulate residential dynamics by considering spatiotemporal land use changes. In the proposed ABM, macro-scale land use change prediction is modeled by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and deployed as the agent environment and micro-scale residential dynamics behaviors autonomously implemented by household agents. These two levels of simulation interacted and jointly promoted urbanization process in an urban area of Tehran city in Iran. The model simulates the behavior of individual households in finding ideal locations to dwell. The household agents are divided into three main groups based on their income rank and they are further classified into different categories based on a number of attributes. These attributes determine the households' preferences for finding new dwellings and change with time. The ABM environment is represented by a land-use map in which the properties of the land parcels change dynamically over the simulation time. The outputs of this model are a set of maps showing the pattern of different groups of households in the city. These patterns can be used by city planners to find optimum locations for building new residential units or adding new services to the city. The simulation results show that combining macro- and micro-level simulation can give full play to the potential of the ABM to understand the driving mechanism of urbanization and provide decision-making support for urban management.

Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars.

PubMed

Font Vivanco, David; Tukker, Arnold; Kemp, René

2016-10-18

Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes-from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices-with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments.

40 CFR 86.162-03 - Approval of alternative air conditioning test simulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... conditioning test simulations. 86.162-03 Section 86.162-03 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... alternative air conditioning test simulations. (a) Upon petition from a manufacturer or upon the Agency's own initiative, the Administrator will approve a simulation of the environmental cell for air conditioning test...

40 CFR 86.162-03 - Approval of alternative air conditioning test simulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... conditioning test simulations. 86.162-03 Section 86.162-03 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... alternative air conditioning test simulations. (a) Upon petition from a manufacturer or upon the Agency's own initiative, the Administrator will approve a simulation of the environmental cell for air conditioning test...

40 CFR 86.162-03 - Approval of alternative air conditioning test simulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... conditioning test simulations. 86.162-03 Section 86.162-03 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... alternative air conditioning test simulations. (a) Upon petition from a manufacturer or upon the Agency's own initiative, the Administrator will approve a simulation of the environmental cell for air conditioning test...

40 CFR 86.162-03 - Approval of alternative air conditioning test simulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... conditioning test simulations. 86.162-03 Section 86.162-03 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... alternative air conditioning test simulations. (a) Upon petition from a manufacturer or upon the Agency's own initiative, the Administrator will approve a simulation of the environmental cell for air conditioning test...

Co-variation of metabolic rates and cell-size in coccolithophores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aloisi, G.

2015-04-01

Coccolithophores are sensitive recorders of environmental change. The size of their coccosphere varies in the ocean along gradients of environmental conditions and provides a key for understanding the fate of this important phytoplankton group in the future ocean. But interpreting field changes in coccosphere size in terms of laboratory observations is hard, mainly because the marine signal reflects the response of multiple morphotypes to changes in a combination of environmental variables. In this paper I examine the large corpus of published laboratory experiments with coccolithophores looking for relations between environmental conditions, metabolic rates and cell size (a proxy for coccosphere size). I show that growth, photosynthesis, and to a lesser extent calcification, co-vary with cell size when pCO2, irradiance, temperature, nitrate, phosphate and iron conditions change. With the exception of phosphate and temperature, a change from limiting to non-limiting conditions always results in an increase in cell size. An increase in phosphate or temperature produces the opposite effect. The magnitude of the coccosphere size changes observed in the laboratory is comparable to that observed in the ocean. If the biological reasons behind the environment-metabolism-size link are understood, it will be possible to use coccosphere size changes in the modern ocean and in marine sediments to investigate the fate of coccolithophores in the future ocean. This reasoning can be extended to the size of coccoliths if, as recent experiments are starting to show, coccolith size reacts to environmental change proportionally to coccosphere size. I introduce a simple model that simulates the growth rate and the size of cells forced by nitrate and phosphate concentrations. By considering a simple rule that allocates the energy flow from nutrient acquisition to cell structure (biomass) and cell maturity (biological complexity, eventually leading to cell division), the model is able to reproduce the co-variation of growth rate and cell size observed in the laboratory when these nutrients become limiting. These results support ongoing efforts to interpret coccosphere and coccolith size measurements in the context of climate change.

Classroom Simulation of United Nations Conference on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hastings, D. W.

2009-12-01

Global climate change is widely recognized as the most important environmental problem today that requires complex, global solutions with international cooperation. Teaching the science of climate change is relatively simple compared to the challenges of determining solutions to this problem. It is important for students to learn that solutions do exist and that international negotiations are underway to achieve reductions. What are the (policy) solutions to this vexing problem, which countries should take responsibility, and specifically how can this be done? In the final week of an advanced undergraduate environmental science class: Global Environmental Change, students engage in a week-long classroom simulation of the annual United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (UNFCCC/COP). Small groups of students represent one nation that has a particular, and important, interest in the negotiations. Each group researches the positions their country has with respect to the negotiations, determines their possible allies, and who might have interests that are in conflict with their country. While NGOs such as environmental organizations and industry groups are not formally represented, I include some of these groups since they are influential and provide interesting insight into different interests. For simplicity, about 8-10 nations and NGOs are included. In preparation for the conference, students produce a background paper and draft resolution. At the end of the conference, they refine these documents to produce an updated position paper and resolution on how to mitigate global warming. Students are asked to focus on: 1. How much to change global greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade and over the next century; 2. How much of these emission reductions their country should be responsible for; 3. How will their country meet these goals? They must focus on whether and how to implement two mechanisms: a) Clean Development Mechanisms (specifically whether forests should be used as a carbon sink); and b) emissions trading. Informal negotiations (often at a local café) are included in an effort to make the process more realistic. Fact or Fiction? This exercise is largely on reality, but some of it will be fictitious. While I encourage students to base arguments and proposals on real, documented information I encourage them to develop creative and innovative proposals. This exercise relies on educational material and resources designed for Model United Nations simulations; numerous on-line resources are available for students. At the end of the exercise both science and non-science students have enjoyed immersing themselves in challenging questions that confronts all practitioners of climate policy. This approach gives traditional science students an opportunity to experience the challenges and problems associated with implementing policy solutions, and allows those with interests in policy to explore their interests in depth. Rather than a static, text-oriented approach, students engage in active learning, which is appropriate for this quickly evolving subject. Details of classroom logistics, assessment tools, and handouts will be provided.

International Trade, Pollution Accumulation and Sustainable Growth: A VAR Estimation from the Pearl River Delta Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Hui; Tian, Lu

2018-03-01

In order to investigate international trade influence in the regional environment. This paper constructs a vector auto-regression (VAR) model and estimates the equations with the environment and trade data of the Pearl River Delta Region. The major mechanisms to the lag are discussed and the fit simulation of the environmental change by the international impulse is given. The result shows that impulse of pollution-intensive export deteriorates the environment continuously and impulse of such import improves it. These effects on the environment are insignificantly correlated with contemporary regional income but significantly correlative to early-stage trade feature. To a typical trade-dependent economy, both export and import have hysteresis influence in the regional environment. The lagged impulse will change environmental development in the turning point, maximal pollution level and convergence.

Algorithm Considerations for Evaluating Phosphorus Transport and Environmental Management Strategies Using a Grid-Based Spatial Watershed Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-11-01

term modeling simulations are needed in order to predict 1) the effects of BMPs on seasonal and annual changes in particulate and soluble P loading...and 2) the effects of past soil management practices on decadal changes in soil P and soluble P in the runoff as a result of BMPs. SWAT P...field observations of very slow (on the order of 50 years) reductions in soil P levels via crop uptake after complete cessation of P fertilizer subsidies

Altruistic aging: The evolutionary dynamics balancing longevity and evolvability.

PubMed

Herrera, Minette; Miller, Aaron; Nishimura, Joel

2017-04-01

Altruism is typically associated with traits or behaviors that benefit the population as a whole, but are costly to the individual. We propose that, when the environment is rapidly changing, senescence (age-related deterioration) can be altruistic. According to numerical simulations of an agent-based model, while long-lived individuals can outcompete their short lived peers, populations composed of long-lived individuals are more likely to go extinct during periods of rapid environmental change. Moreover, as in many situations where other cooperative behavior arises, senescence can be stabilized in a structured population.

Environmental Impact of Buildings--What Matters?

PubMed

Heeren, Niko; Mutel, Christopher L; Steubing, Bernhard; Ostermeyer, York; Wallbaum, Holger; Hellweg, Stefanie

2015-08-18

The goal of this study was to identify drivers of environmental impact and quantify their influence on the environmental performance of wooden and massive residential and office buildings. We performed a life cycle assessment and used thermal simulation to quantify operational energy demand and to account for differences in thermal inertia of building mass. Twenty-eight input parameters, affecting operation, design, material, and exogenic building properties were sampled in a Monte Carlo analysis. To determine sensitivity, we calculated the correlation between each parameter and the resulting life cycle inventory and impact assessment scores. Parameters affecting operational energy demand and energy conversion are the most influential for the building's total environmental performance. For climate change, electricity mix, ventilation rate, heating system, and construction material rank the highest. Thermal inertia results in an average 2-6% difference in heat demand. Nonrenewable cumulative energy demand of wooden buildings is 18% lower, compared to a massive variant. Total cumulative energy demand is comparable. The median climate change impact is 25% lower, including end-of-life material credits and 22% lower, when credits are excluded. The findings are valid for small offices and residential buildings in Switzerland and regions with similar building culture, construction material production, and climate.

Environmental Flows: Evaluating Long-Term Baselines for Hydrological Regime Change in the Southern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deines, A. M.; Morrison, A. M.; Menzie, C.

2016-12-01

The wide variety of ecosystem services associated with running fresh waters are dependent on an assortment of flow conditions including timing and duration of seasonal floods as well as intermittent flows, such as storm peaks. Modern methods of assessing environmental flows consider hydrological regime change by comparing actual or simulated baseline flow conditions against putatively altered regime flows. These calculated flow changes are used as inputs to models of ecosystem responses such as for fish populations, inundated habitat area, or nutrient supplies. However, common and recommended tools and software used to make flow comparisons between putative regimes lack robust mechanisms for evaluating the significance of hydrological regime change in the context of long-term (multiple decades, centuries, or greater) trends, such as climatic conditions, or the facility to determine the existence and causes of regime changes when no obvious discontinuity exists, such as the construction of a dam. As such, environmental flow decisions based on short (recent) baseline records or baseline records assumed to represent stable hydrological conditions may lead to inefficient water use and ecosystem services distribution. Here we examine long-term patterns in discharge, the frequency and severity of regional droughts, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to better understand the occurrence and causes of hydrological regime change in rivers in the Southern United States. For each river we ask: 1) Has hydrological regime change occurred? 2) To what degree is observed regime change associated with regional climatic drivers? 3) How might environmental flows suggested by current methods (e.g. the USGS Hydroecological Integrity Assessment or the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration software) compare with flows derived by additional consideration of long-term drivers of hydrological change? We discuss the different temporal scales through which climate can influence a hydrological regime and provide insights for evaluating or planning expected future flow regimes under potential conditions of water scarcity.

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.

PubMed

Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H

2016-12-01

Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hara, M.

2015-12-01

Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

On the deterministic and stochastic use of hydrologic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farmer, William H.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-01-01

Environmental simulation models, such as precipitation-runoff watershed models, are increasingly used in a deterministic manner for environmental and water resources design, planning, and management. In operational hydrology, simulated responses are now routinely used to plan, design, and manage a very wide class of water resource systems. However, all such models are calibrated to existing data sets and retain some residual error. This residual, typically unknown in practice, is often ignored, implicitly trusting simulated responses as if they are deterministic quantities. In general, ignoring the residuals will result in simulated responses with distributional properties that do not mimic those of the observed responses. This discrepancy has major implications for the operational use of environmental simulation models as is shown here. Both a simple linear model and a distributed-parameter precipitation-runoff model are used to document the expected bias in the distributional properties of simulated responses when the residuals are ignored. The systematic reintroduction of residuals into simulated responses in a manner that produces stochastic output is shown to improve the distributional properties of the simulated responses. Every effort should be made to understand the distributional behavior of simulation residuals and to use environmental simulation models in a stochastic manner.

Climate change jeopardizes the persistence of freshwater zooplankton by reducing both habitat suitability and demographic resilience.

PubMed

Pinceel, Tom; Buschke, Falko; Weckx, Margo; Brendonck, Luc; Vanschoenwinkel, Bram

2018-01-24

Higher temperatures and increased environmental variability under climate change could jeopardize the persistence of species. Organisms that rely on short windows of rainfall to complete their life-cycles, like desert annual plants or temporary pool animals, may be particularly at risk. Although some could tolerate environmental changes by building-up banks of propagules (seeds or eggs) that buffer against catastrophes, climate change will threaten this resilience mechanism if higher temperatures reduce propagule survival. Using a crustacean model species from temporary waters, we quantified experimentally the survival and dormancy of propagules under anticipated climate change and used these demographic parameters to simulate long term population dynamics. By exposing propagules to present-day and projected daily temperature cycles in an 8 month laboratory experiment, we showed how increased temperatures reduce survival rates in the propagule bank. Integrating these reduced survival rates into population models demonstrated the inability of the bank to maintain populations; thereby exacerbating extinction risk caused by shortened growing seasons. Overall, our study demonstrates that climate change could threaten the persistence of populations by both reducing habitat suitability and eroding life-history strategies that support demographic resilience.

Simulating the Risk of Liver Fluke Infection using a Mechanistic Hydro-epidemiological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltrame, Ludovica; Dunne, Toby; Rose, Hannah; Walker, Josephine; Morgan, Eric; Vickerman, Peter; Wagener, Thorsten

2016-04-01

Liver Fluke (Fasciola hepatica) is a common parasite found in livestock and responsible for considerable economic losses throughout the world. Risk of infection is strongly influenced by climatic and hydrological conditions, which characterise the host environment for parasite development and transmission. Despite on-going control efforts, increases in fluke outbreaks have been reported in recent years in the UK, and have been often attributed to climate change. Currently used fluke risk models are based on empirical relationships derived between historical climate and incidence data. However, hydro-climate conditions are becoming increasingly non-stationary due to climate change and direct anthropogenic impacts such as land use change, making empirical models unsuitable for simulating future risk. In this study we introduce a mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Liver Fluke, which explicitly simulates habitat suitability for disease development in space and time, representing the parasite life cycle in connection with key environmental conditions. The model is used to assess patterns of Liver Fluke risk for two catchments in the UK under current and potential future climate conditions. Comparisons are made with a widely used empirical model employing different datasets, including data from regional veterinary laboratories. Results suggest that mechanistic models can achieve adequate predictive ability and support adaptive fluke control strategies under climate change scenarios.

Global Qualitative Flow-Path Modeling for Local State Determination in Simulation and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T. (Inventor); Fleming, Land D. (Inventor)

1998-01-01

For qualitative modeling and analysis, a general qualitative abstraction of power transmission variables (flow and effort) for elements of flow paths includes information on resistance, net flow, permissible directions of flow, and qualitative potential is discussed. Each type of component model has flow-related variables and an associated internal flow map, connected into an overall flow network of the system. For storage devices, the implicit power transfer to the environment is represented by "virtual" circuits that include an environmental junction. A heterogeneous aggregation method simplifies the path structure. A method determines global flow-path changes during dynamic simulation and analysis, and identifies corresponding local flow state changes that are effects of global configuration changes. Flow-path determination is triggered by any change in a flow-related device variable in a simulation or analysis. Components (path elements) that may be affected are identified, and flow-related attributes favoring flow in the two possible directions are collected for each of them. Next, flow-related attributes are determined for each affected path element, based on possibly conflicting indications of flow direction. Spurious qualitative ambiguities are minimized by using relative magnitudes and permissible directions of flow, and by favoring flow sources over effort sources when comparing flow tendencies. The results are output to local flow states of affected components.

The Tropical Cyclone Response to Structural and Temporal Variability in the Environmental Wind Profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onderlinde, Matthew J.

The aim of this dissertation is to attain a better understanding of how tropical cyclones (TCs) respond to variations in the three-dimensional environmental wind field. Much attention has been given to the impact of environmental wind shear in the 850 -- 200 hPa layer on tropical cyclones. However, even with the same magnitude of shear, helicity in this layer can vary significantly. A new parameter is presented, the tropical cyclone-relative environmental helicity (TCREH). Positive TCREH leads to a tilted storm that enhances local storm scale helicity in regions of convection within the TC. Initially we proposed that this enhanced local scale helicity may allow for more robust and longer lasting convection which is more effective at generating latent heat and subsequent TC intensification. Further investigation shows that this is a secondary influence on TC intensity and that variations in the azimuthal and radial position of convection in the TC play a stronger role. Vertical tilt of the vortex is often attributed to wind shear. Different values of helicity modulate this tilt and certain tilt configurations are more favorable for development or intensification than others, suggesting that mean positive environmental helicity is more favorable for development and intensification than mean negative helicity. Idealized modeling simulations demonstrate the impact of environmental helicity on TC development and intensification. Results show that wind profiles with the same 850-200 hPa wind shear but different values of helicity lead to different rates of development. TCREH also is computed from Era-Interim reanalysis (1979 -- 2011) and GFS analyses (2004 -- 2011) to determine if a significant signal exists between TCREH and TC intensification. Mean annular helicity is averaged over various time periods and correlated with the TC intensity change during those periods. Results suggest a weak but statistically significant correlation between environmental helicity and TC intensity change with positive helicity being more favorable for intensification. Another goal of this dissertation is to identify the mechanisms that lead to the observed variations in intensification rate. Results suggest that the difference in intensification rate between TCs embedded in positive versus negative TCREH primarily results from the position of convection and associated latent heat fluxes relative to the wind shear vector. When TCREH is positive, convection is more readily advected upshear and air parcels that experience larger fluxes are more frequently ingested into the TC core. Trajectories computed from high resolution simulations demonstrate the recovery of equivalent potential temperature downwind of convection, latent heat flux near the TC core, and parcel routes through updrafts in convection. Trajectory characteristics show that low-level unstable air is lofted into deep convection near the radius of maximum winds more frequently when TCREH is positive. Contoured frequency-by-altitude diagrams (CFADs) show that convection is distributed differently around TCs embedded in environments characterized by positive versus negative TCREH. They also show that the nature of the most intense convection differs only slightly between cases of positive and negative TCREH. Finally, the implications of time-varying environments around TCs are examined. Until now, idealized numerical simulations of the tropical cyclone (TC) response to time-varying wind shear have applied instantaneous changes in the TC environment. A new modeling framework allows for smoothly transitioning environmental wind states: time-varying point-downscaling (TVPDS). TVPDS is an enhancement of the point-downscaling technique (Nolan 2011) developed for the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. It uses analysis nudging to smoothly transition between different environmental vertical wind (and/or temperature and moisture) profiles while coordinating the point-downscaling method such that the environment remains in balance. Using this new framework, results from previous studies are reexamined to test whether the instantaneous 'shock' to the environment has implications for TC intensity evolution. Results suggest that instantaneous changes to the TC environment indeed do lead to an unrealistic response to an increase in shear. TVPDS simulations of quasi-steady state, moderately intense (~50 ms-1) TCs show that the response to increasing wind shear is a steady reduction in intensity without a recovery to the pre-shear intensity. TVPDS simulations also show that the rate at which the TC weakens depends on how rapidly the environment transitions from low to high shear. Analyses of surface fluxes and regions of convection are presented to determine how the time-varying shear affects the TC.

Novel model coupling approach for resilience analysis of coastal plant communities.

PubMed

Schibalski, Anett; Körner, Katrin; Maier, Martin; Jeltsch, Florian; Schröder, Boris

2018-06-04

Resilience is a major research focus covering a wide range of topics from biodiversity conservation to ecosystem (service) management. Model simulations can assess the resilience of, e.g., plant species, measured as the return time to conditions prior to a disturbance. This requires process-based models (PBM) that implement relevant processes like regeneration and reproduction and thus successfully reproduce transient dynamics after disturbances. Such models are often complex and thus limited to either short-term or small-scale applications, whereas many research questions require species predictions across larger spatial and temporal scales. We suggest a framework to couple a PBM and a statistical species distribution model (SDM), which transfers the results of a resilience analysis by the PBM to SDM predictions. The resulting hybrid model combines the advantages of both approaches: the convenient applicability of SDMs and the relevant process detail of PBMs in abrupt environmental change situations. First, we simulate dynamic responses of species communities to a disturbance event with a PBM. We aggregate the response behavior in two resilience metrics: return time and amplitude of the response peak. These metrics are then used to complement long-term SDM projections with dynamic short-term responses to disturbance. To illustrate our framework, we investigate the effect of abrupt short-term groundwater level and salinity changes on coastal vegetation at the German Baltic Sea. We found two example species to be largely resilient, and, consequently, modifications of SDM predictions consisted mostly of smoothing out peaks in the occurrence probability that were not confirmed by the PBM. Discrepancies between SDM- and PBM-predicted species responses were caused by community dynamics simulated in the PBM and absent from the SDM. Although demonstrated with boosted regression trees (SDM) and an existing individual-based model, IBC-grass (PBM), our flexible framework can easily be applied to other PBM and SDM types, as well as other definitions of short-term disturbances or long-term trends of environmental change. Thus, our framework allows accounting for biological feedbacks in the response to short- and long-term environmental changes as a major advancement in predictive vegetation modeling. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

New isotope technologies in environmental physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Povinec, P. P.; Betti, M.; Jull, A. J. T.; Vojtyla, P.

2008-02-01

As the levels of radionuclides observed at present in the environment are very low, high sensitive analytical systems are required for carrying out environmental investigations. We review recent progress which has been done in low-level counting techniques in both radiometrics and mass spectrometry sectors, with emphasis on underground laboratories, Monte Carlo (GEANT) simulation of background of HPGe detectors operating in various configurations, secondary ionisation mass spectrometry, and accelerator mass spectrometry. Applications of radiometrics and mass spectrometry techniques in radioecology and climate change studies are presented and discussed as well. The review should help readers in better orientation on recent developments in the field of low-level counting and spectrometry, and to advice on construction principles of underground laboratories, as well as on criteria how to choose low or high energy mass spectrometers for environmental investigations.

Grocery store interventions to change food purchasing behaviors: a systematic review of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Hartmann-Boyce, Jamie; Bianchi, Filippo; Piernas, Carmen; Riches, Sarah Payne; Frie, Kerstin; Nourse, Rebecca; Jebb, Susan A

2018-06-01

Diet is an important determinant of health, and food purchasing is a key antecedent to consumption. We set out to evaluate the effectiveness of grocery store interventions to change food purchasing, and to examine whether effectiveness varied based on intervention components, setting, or socioeconomic status. We conducted a systematic review of randomized controlled trials (search performed June 2017). Studies must have: aimed to change food purchasing; been implemented in grocery stores (real or simulated); reported purchasing; and had a minimal control or compared interventions fulfilling our criteria. Searching, screening, bias assessment, and data extraction followed Cochrane methods. We grouped studies by intervention type (economic, environmental, swaps, and/or education), synthesized results narratively, and conducted an exploratory qualitative comparative analysis. We included 35 studies representing 89 interventions, >20,000 participants, and >800 stores. Risk of bias was mixed. Economic interventions showed the most promise, with 8 of the 9 studies in real stores and all 6 in simulated environments detecting an effect on purchasing. Swap interventions appeared promising in the 2 studies based in real stores. Store environment interventions showed mixed effects. Education-only interventions appeared effective in simulated environments but not in real stores. Available data suggested that effects of economic interventions did not differ by socioeconomic status, whereas for other interventions impact was variable. In our qualitative comparative analysis, economic interventions (regardless of setting) and environmental and swap interventions in real stores were associated with statistically significant changes in purchasing in the desired direction for ≥1 of the foods targeted by the intervention, whereas education-only interventions in real stores were not. Findings suggest that interventions implemented in grocery stores-particularly ones that manipulate price, suggest swaps, and perhaps manipulate item availability-have an impact on purchasing and could play a role in public health strategies to improve health. Review protocol registered at https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/ as CRD42017068809.

Grocery store interventions to change food purchasing behaviors: a systematic review of randomized controlled trials

PubMed Central

Hartmann-Boyce, Jamie; Bianchi, Filippo; Piernas, Carmen; Riches, Sarah Payne; Frie, Kerstin; Nourse, Rebecca; Jebb, Susan A

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Background Diet is an important determinant of health, and food purchasing is a key antecedent to consumption. Objective We set out to evaluate the effectiveness of grocery store interventions to change food purchasing, and to examine whether effectiveness varied based on intervention components, setting, or socioeconomic status. Design We conducted a systematic review of randomized controlled trials (search performed June 2017). Studies must have: aimed to change food purchasing; been implemented in grocery stores (real or simulated); reported purchasing; and had a minimal control or compared interventions fulfilling our criteria. Searching, screening, bias assessment, and data extraction followed Cochrane methods. We grouped studies by intervention type (economic, environmental, swaps, and/or education), synthesized results narratively, and conducted an exploratory qualitative comparative analysis. Results We included 35 studies representing 89 interventions, >20,000 participants, and >800 stores. Risk of bias was mixed. Economic interventions showed the most promise, with 8 of the 9 studies in real stores and all 6 in simulated environments detecting an effect on purchasing. Swap interventions appeared promising in the 2 studies based in real stores. Store environment interventions showed mixed effects. Education-only interventions appeared effective in simulated environments but not in real stores. Available data suggested that effects of economic interventions did not differ by socioeconomic status, whereas for other interventions impact was variable. In our qualitative comparative analysis, economic interventions (regardless of setting) and environmental and swap interventions in real stores were associated with statistically significant changes in purchasing in the desired direction for ≥1 of the foods targeted by the intervention, whereas education-only interventions in real stores were not. Conclusions Findings suggest that interventions implemented in grocery stores—particularly ones that manipulate price, suggest swaps, and perhaps manipulate item availability—have an impact on purchasing and could play a role in public health strategies to improve health. Review protocol registered at https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/ as CRD42017068809. PMID:29868912

Pore Breathing of Metal-Organic Frameworks by Environmental Transmission Electron Microscopy.

PubMed

Parent, Lucas R; Pham, C Huy; Patterson, Joseph P; Denny, Michael S; Cohen, Seth M; Gianneschi, Nathan C; Paesani, Francesco

2017-10-11

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) have emerged as a versatile platform for the rational design of multifunctional materials, combining large specific surface areas with flexible, periodic frameworks that can undergo reversible structural transitions, or "breathing", upon temperature and pressure changes, and through gas adsorption/desorption processes. Although MOF breathing can be inferred from the analysis of adsorption isotherms, direct observation of the structural transitions has been lacking, and the underlying processes of framework reorganization in individual MOF nanocrystals is largely unknown. In this study, we describe the characterization and elucidation of these processes through the combination of in situ environmental transmission electron microscopy (ETEM) and computer simulations. This combined approach enables the direct monitoring of the breathing behavior of individual MIL-53(Cr) nanocrystals upon reversible water adsorption and temperature changes. The ability to characterize structural changes in single nanocrystals and extract lattice level information through in silico correlation provides fundamental insights into the relationship between pore size/shape and host-guest interactions.

Toward Surface Mass Balance Modeling over Antarctic Peninsula with Improved Snow/Ice Physics within WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villamil-Otero, G.; Zhang, J.; Yao, Y.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has long been the focus of climate change studies due to its rapid environmental changes such as significantly increased glacier melt and retreat, and ice-shelf break-up. Progress has been continuously made in the use of regional modeling to simulate surface mass changes over ice sheets. Most efforts, however, focus on the ice sheets of Greenland with considerable fewer studies in Antarctica. In this study the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has been applied to the Antarctic region for weather modeling, is adopted to capture the past and future surface mass balance changes over AP. In order to enhance the capabilities of WRF model simulating surface mass balance over the ice surface, we implement various ice and snow processes within the WRF and develop a new WRF suite (WRF-Ice). The WRF-Ice includes a thermodynamic ice sheet model that improves the representation of internal melting and refreezing processes and the thermodynamic effects over ice sheet. WRF-Ice also couples a thermodynamic sea ice model to improve the simulation of surface temperature and fluxes over sea ice. Lastly, complex snow processes are also taken into consideration including the implementation of a snowdrift model that takes into account the redistribution of blowing snow as well as the thermodynamic impact of drifting snow sublimation on the lower atmospheric boundary layer. Intensive testing of these ice and snow processes are performed to assess the capability of WRF-Ice in simulating the surface mass balance changes over AP.

Analysis of climate change scenarios in an olive orchard microcatchment in Spain using the model WIMMED

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzmán, Enrique; Aguilar, Cristina; José Polo, María; Taguas, Encarnación V.

2015-04-01

Olive orchards constitute traditional systems in the Mediterranean Basin. In Andalusia, Southern Spain, more than 1.5Mha are dedicated to olive crop land use, which represent a production of 1Mt of olive oil per year. This is a strategic economic sector with environmental and social relevance. In the context of climate change in Andalusia, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has highlighted that an increase of temperatures and rainfall intensities as well as the reduction of cumulated rainfall might be expected. This may mean serious detrimental economic and environmental risks associated to floods and the reduction of available water resources which would be convenient to quantify. The objective of this work is to analyse the rainfall-runoff relationships in an olive orchard catchment by the application of the distributed hydrological model WIMMED (Herrero et al., 2009) simulating the effects of climate change, with a special emphasis on extreme events. Firstly, the model was calibrated and validated with 9 maximum annual events of a datasets from 2005-2012 obtained in an olive orchard catchment in Spain (Taguas et al., 2010). In this stage, only the saturated hydraulic conductivity and soil moisture in saturation were adjusted after a sensitivity analysis where 68 simulations were carried out. A good agreement was obtained between observed and simulated hydrographs. The mean errors and the root mean square errors were 0.18 mm and 2.19 mm for the calibration and 0.18 and 1.94 mm, for the validation. Finally, the catchment response to the increase of intensity and temperature and the reduction of cumulated rainfall were simulated for the maximum event of the series. The results showed a rise of 11% of the runoff coefficient quantifying the possible impact of climate change. REFERENCES Herrero J, Polo M., Moñino A., Losada MA (2009). An energy balance snowmelt model in a Mediterranean site. J. Hydrol. 371, pp. 98-107 Taguas EV, Peña A, Ayuso JL, Yuan Y, Pérez R, Giráldez JV (2010). Rainfall variability and hydrological and erosive response of an olive tree microcatchment under no-tillage with a spontaneous grass cover in Spain. Earth Surf. Proces. Land., 35(7): 750-760.

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, Bruce

1990-01-01

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

Simulations of the Influence of MHK-Turbine Operation on Hydrodynamics and Sediment Transport for Scotlandville Bend, Mississippi River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barco, J.; Johnson, E.; Roberts, J. D.; James, S. C.; Jones, C.

2012-12-01

Water-current MHK turbines are receiving growing interest in many parts of the world with hydrokinetic resources. However, little is known about the potential effects of MHK device operation in coastal waters, estuaries, or rivers, or of the cumulative impacts of these devices on aquatic ecosystems over years or decades of operation. This lack of knowledge affects the actions of regulatory agencies, the opinions of stakeholder groups, and the commitment of energy project developers and investors. There is an urgent need for practical, accessible tools and peer-reviewed publications to help industry and regulators evaluate environmental impacts and mitigation measures and to establish best siting and design practices. This study presents a methodology to assess the hydrokinetic potential and its environmental effects in a reach of the Mississippi river. The potential changes to the physical environment imposed by operation of MHK turbine arrays were evaluated using the modeling platform SNL-EFDC. Energy extraction is simulated using momentum sinks recently coded into SNL-EFDC, which is an augmented version of US EPA's Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC). Three different scenarios (4-, 23- and 112-piling arrays) were development for SNL-EFDC simulations. The four-piling array included 12 turbines; the 23-piling, 132 turbines; and the 112-piling, 638 turbines. As expected, average velocities decrease downstream of each MHK device due to energy removal and blunt-body form drag from the MHK support structures. Furthermore, the velocity profiles exhibit a wake velocity deficit downstream of the last MHK row, which disappears within about 15 array widths downstream. This mirrors the approximate recovery of the wake for a single MHK turbine in a straight channel, which recovers to a ~10% deficit around 15 device diameters downstream. Changes in the flow field also alter sediment transport dynamics around and downstream of an MHK array. Model results with and without an MHK array were compared to facilitate an understanding of how MHK-turbine arrays might alter the river environment. These simulations and scenario analyses can assist cost-effective planning before proceeding to detailed siting, engineering designs, and deployment of devices.

Supporting Current Energy Conversion Projects through Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, S. C.; Roberts, J.

2016-02-01

The primary goals of current energy conversion (CEC) technology being developed today are to optimize energy output and minimize environmental impact. CEC turbines generate energy from tidal and current systems and create wakes that interact with turbines located downstream of a device. The placement of devices can greatly influence power generation and structural reliability. CECs can also alter the environment surrounding the turbines, such as flow regimes, sediment dynamics, and water quality. These alterations pose potential stressors to numerous environmental receptors. Software is needed to investigate specific CEC sites to simulate power generation and hydrodynamic responses of a flow through a CEC turbine array so that these potential impacts can be evaluated. Moreover, this software can be used to optimize array layouts that yield the least changes to the environmental (i.e., hydrodynamics, sediment dynamics, and water quality). Through model calibration exercises, simulated wake profiles and turbulence intensities compare favorably to the experimental data and demonstrate the utility and accuracy of a fast-running tool for future siting and analysis of CEC arrays in complex domains. The Delft3D modeling tool facilitates siting of CEC projects through optimization of array layouts and evaluation of potential environmental effect all while provide a common "language" for academics, industry, and regulators to be able to discuss the implications of marine renewable energy projects. Given the enormity of any full-scale marine renewable energy project, it necessarily falls to modeling to evaluate how array operations must be addressed in an environmental impact statement in a way that engenders confidence in the assessment of the CEC array to minimize environmental effects.

Optimising Habitat-Based Models for Wide-Ranging Marine Predators: Scale Matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scales, K. L.; Hazen, E. L.; Jacox, M.; Edwards, C. A.; Bograd, S. J.

2016-12-01

Predicting the responses of marine top predators to dynamic oceanographic conditions requires habitat-based models that sufficiently capture environmental preferences. Spatial resolution and temporal averaging of environmental data layers is a key aspect of model construction. The utility of surfaces contemporaneous to animal movement (e.g. daily, weekly), versus synoptic products (monthly, seasonal, climatological) is currently under debate, as is the optimal spatial resolution for predictive products. Using movement simulations with built-in environmental preferences (correlated random walks, multi-state hidden Markov-type models) together with modeled (Regional Oceanographic Modeling System, ROMS) and remotely-sensed (MODIS-Aqua) datasets, we explored the effects of degrading environmental surfaces (3km - 1 degree, daily - climatological) on model inference. We simulated the movements of a hypothetical wide-ranging marine predator through the California Current system over a three month period (May-June-July), based on metrics derived from previously published blue whale Balaenoptera musculus tracking studies. Results indicate that models using seasonal or climatological data fields can overfit true environmental preferences, in both presence-absence and behaviour-based model formulations. Moreover, the effects of a degradation in spatial resolution are more pronounced when using temporally averaged fields than when using daily, weekly or monthly datasets. In addition, we observed a notable divergence between the `best' models selected using common methods (e.g. AUC, AICc) and those that most accurately reproduced built-in environmental preferences. These findings have important implications for conservation and management of marine mammals, seabirds, sharks, sea turtles and large teleost fish, particularly in implementing dynamic ocean management initiatives and in forecasting responses to future climate-mediated ecosystem change.

Optimising Habitat-Based Models for Wide-Ranging Marine Predators: Scale Matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scales, K. L.; Hazen, E. L.; Jacox, M.; Edwards, C. A.; Bograd, S. J.

2016-02-01

Predicting the responses of marine top predators to dynamic oceanographic conditions requires habitat-based models that sufficiently capture environmental preferences. Spatial resolution and temporal averaging of environmental data layers is a key aspect of model construction. The utility of surfaces contemporaneous to animal movement (e.g. daily, weekly), versus synoptic products (monthly, seasonal, climatological) is currently under debate, as is the optimal spatial resolution for predictive products. Using movement simulations with built-in environmental preferences (correlated random walks, multi-state hidden Markov-type models) together with modeled (Regional Oceanographic Modeling System, ROMS) and remotely-sensed (MODIS-Aqua) datasets, we explored the effects of degrading environmental surfaces (3km - 1 degree, daily - climatological) on model inference. We simulated the movements of a hypothetical wide-ranging marine predator through the California Current system over a three month period (May-June-July), based on metrics derived from previously published blue whale Balaenoptera musculus tracking studies. Results indicate that models using seasonal or climatological data fields can overfit true environmental preferences, in both presence-absence and behaviour-based model formulations. Moreover, the effects of a degradation in spatial resolution are more pronounced when using temporally averaged fields than when using daily, weekly or monthly datasets. In addition, we observed a notable divergence between the `best' models selected using common methods (e.g. AUC, AICc) and those that most accurately reproduced built-in environmental preferences. These findings have important implications for conservation and management of marine mammals, seabirds, sharks, sea turtles and large teleost fish, particularly in implementing dynamic ocean management initiatives and in forecasting responses to future climate-mediated ecosystem change.

Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change.

PubMed

Schiffers, Katja; Bourne, Elizabeth C; Lavergne, Sébastien; Thuiller, Wilfried; Travis, Justin M J

2013-01-19

Dispersal is a key determinant of a population's evolutionary potential. It facilitates the propagation of beneficial alleles throughout the distributional range of spatially outspread populations and increases the speed of adaptation. However, when habitat is heterogeneous and individuals are locally adapted, dispersal may, at the same time, reduce fitness through increasing maladaptation. Here, we use a spatially explicit, allelic simulation model to quantify how these equivocal effects of dispersal affect a population's evolutionary response to changing climate. Individuals carry a diploid set of chromosomes, with alleles coding for adaptation to non-climatic environmental conditions and climatic conditions, respectively. Our model results demonstrate that the interplay between gene flow and habitat heterogeneity may decrease effective dispersal and population size to such an extent that substantially reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue. Importantly, even when evolutionary rescue saves a population from extinction, its spatial range following climate change may be strongly narrowed, that is, the rescue is only partial. These findings emphasize that neglecting the impact of non-climatic, local adaptation might lead to a considerable overestimation of a population's evolvability under rapid environmental change.

Dealing with Environmental Issues: The Use of Simulation. Environmental Education Occasional Paper No. 5.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patton, William E.; Wilen, William W.

The paper provides a rationale for using a decision-making model in teaching environmental issues, outlines specific steps in creating a simulation, and illustrates its use in the classroom. The objectives of environmental education are to provide learning opportunities for students to know, think, choose, and act regarding pervasive social issues…

Discrete event simulation for exploring strategies: an urban water management case.

PubMed

Huang, Dong-Bin; Scholz, Roland W; Gujer, Willi; Chitwood, Derek E; Loukopoulos, Peter; Schertenleib, Roland; Siegrist, Hansruedi

2007-02-01

This paper presents a model structure aimed at offering an overview of the various elements of a strategy and exploring their multidimensional effects through time in an efficient way. It treats a strategy as a set of discrete events planned to achieve a certain strategic goal and develops a new form of causal networks as an interfacing component between decision makers and environment models, e.g., life cycle inventory and material flow models. The causal network receives a strategic plan as input in a discrete manner and then outputs the updated parameter sets to the subsequent environmental models. Accordingly, the potential dynamic evolution of environmental systems caused by various strategies can be stepwise simulated. It enables a way to incorporate discontinuous change in models for environmental strategy analysis, and enhances the interpretability and extendibility of a complex model by its cellular constructs. It is exemplified using an urban water management case in Kunming, a major city in Southwest China. By utilizing the presented method, the case study modeled the cross-scale interdependencies of the urban drainage system and regional water balance systems, and evaluated the effectiveness of various strategies for improving the situation of Dianchi Lake.

Evaluating simulated functional trait patterns and quantifying modelled trait diversity effects on simulated ecosystem fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlick, R.; Schimel, D.

2014-12-01

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) typically employ only a small set of Plant Functional Types (PFTs) to represent the vast diversity of observed vegetation forms and functioning. There is growing evidence, however, that this abstraction may not adequately represent the observed variation in plant functional traits, which is thought to play an important role for many ecosystem functions and for ecosystem resilience to environmental change. The geographic distribution of PFTs in these models is also often based on empirical relationships between present-day climate and vegetation patterns. Projections of future climate change, however, point toward the possibility of novel regional climates, which could lead to no-analog vegetation compositions incompatible with the PFT paradigm. Here, we present results from the Jena Diversity-DGVM (JeDi-DGVM), a novel traits-based vegetation model, which simulates a large number of hypothetical plant growth strategies constrained by functional tradeoffs, thereby allowing for a more flexible temporal and spatial representation of the terrestrial biosphere. First, we compare simulated present-day geographical patterns of functional traits with empirical trait observations (in-situ and from airborne imaging spectroscopy). The observed trait patterns are then used to improve the tradeoff parameterizations of JeDi-DGVM. Finally, focusing primarily on the simulated leaf traits, we run the model with various amounts of trait diversity. We quantify the effects of these modeled biodiversity manipulations on simulated ecosystem fluxes and stocks for both present-day conditions and transient climate change scenarios. The simulation results reveal that the coarse treatment of plant functional traits by current PFT-based vegetation models may contribute substantial uncertainty regarding carbon-climate feedbacks. Further development of trait-based models and further investment in global in-situ and spectroscopic plant trait observations are needed.

OVERALL MASS TRANSFER COEFFICIENT FOR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS FROM SMALL WATER POOLS UNDER SIMULATED INDOOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Small chamber tests were conducted to experimentally determine the overall mass transfer coefficient for pollutant emissions from still water under simulated indoor-residential or occupational-environmental conditions. Fourteen tests were conducted in small environmental chambers...

Simulated effects of proposed Arkansas Valley Conduit on hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands through 2070, Pueblo Reservoir, southeastern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, Roderick F.

2013-01-01

The purpose of the Arkansas Valley Conduit (AVC) is to deliver water for municipal and industrial use within the boundaries of the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District. Water supplied through the AVC would serve two needs: (1) to supplement or replace existing poor-quality water to communities downstream from Pueblo Reservoir; and (2) to meet a portion of the AVC participants’ projected water demands through 2070. The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) initiated an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) to address the potential environmental consequences associated with constructing and operating the proposed AVC, entering into a conveyance contract for the Pueblo Dam north-south outlet works interconnect (Interconnect), and entering into a long-term excess capacity master contract (Master Contract). Operational changes, as a result of implementation of proposed EIS alternatives, could change the hydrodynamics and water-quality conditions in Pueblo Reservoir. An interagency agreement was initiated between Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey to accurately simulate hydrodynamics and water quality in Pueblo Reservoir for projected demands associated with four of the seven proposed EIS alternatives. The four alternatives submitted to the USGS for scenario simulation included various combinations (action or no action) of the proposed Arkansas Valley Conduit, Master Contract, and Interconnect options. The four alternatives were the No Action, Comanche South, Joint Use Pipeline North, and Master Contract Only. Additionally, scenario simulations were done that represented existing conditions (Existing Conditions scenario) in Pueblo Reservoir. Water-surface elevations, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate, total phosphorus, total iron, and algal biomass (measured as chlorophyll-a) were simulated. Each of the scenarios was simulated for three contiguous water years representing a wet, average, and dry annual hydrologic cycle. Each selected simulation scenario also was evaluated for differences in direct/indirect effects and cumulative effects on a particular scenario. Analysis of the results for the direct/indirect- and cumulative-effects analyses indicated that, in general, the results were similar for most of the scenarios and comparisons in this report focused on results from the direct/indirect-effects analyses. Scenario simulations that represented existing conditions in Pueblo Reservoir were compared to the No Action scenario to assess changes in water quality from current demands (2006) to projected demands in 2070. Overall, comparisons of the results between the Existing Conditions and the No Action scenarios for water-surface elevations, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate, total phosphorus, and total iron concentrations indicated that the annual median values generally were similar for all three simulated years. Additionally, algal groups and chlorophyll-a concentrations (algal biomass) were similar for the Existing Conditions and the No Action scenarios at site 7B in the epilimnion for the simulated period (Water Year 2000 through 2002). The No Action scenario also was compared individually to the Comanche South, Joint Use Pipeline North, and Master Contract Only scenarios. These comparisons were made to describe changes in the annual median, 85th percentile, or 15th percentile concentration between the No Action scenario and each of the other three simulation scenarios. Simulated water-surface elevations, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate, total phosphorus, total iron, algal groups, and chlorophyll-a concentrations in Pueblo Reservoir generally were similar between the No Action scenario and each of the other three simulation scenarios.

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: A global-scale model comparison

DOE PAGES

Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; ...

2016-05-02

Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, modelmore » structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g. boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process as well as improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Furthermore, current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.« less

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: A global-scale model comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, modelmore » structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g. boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process as well as improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Furthermore, current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.« less

[Dynamics of sap flow density in stems of typical desert shrub Calligonum mongolicum and its responses to environmental variables].

PubMed

Xu, Shi-qin; Ji, Xi-bin; Jin, Bo-wen

2016-02-01

Independent measurements of stem sap flow in stems of Calligonum mongolicum and environmental variables using commercial sap flow gauges and a micrometeorological monitoring system, respectively, were made to simulate the variation of sap flow density in the middle range of Hexi Corridor, Northwest China during June to September, 2014. The results showed that the diurnal process of sap flow density in C. mongolicum showed a broad unimodal change, and the maximum sap flow density reached about 30 minutes after the maximum of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) , while about 120 minutes before the maximum of temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). During the studying period, sap flow density closely related with atmosphere evapor-transpiration demand, and mainly affected by PAR, temperature and VPD. The model was developed which directly linked the sap flow density with climatic variables, and good correlation between measured and simulated sap flow density was observed in different climate conditions. The accuracy of simulation was significantly improved if the time-lag effect was taken into consideration, while this model underestimated low and nighttime sap flow densities, which was probably caused by plant physiological characteristics.

Environmental flow assessments for transformed estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Tao; Zhang, Heyue; Yang, Zhifeng; Yang, Wei

2015-01-01

Here, we propose an approach to environmental flow assessment that considers spatial pattern variations in potential habitats affected by river discharges and tidal currents in estuaries. The approach comprises four steps: identifying and simulating the distributions of critical environmental factors for habitats of typical species in an estuary; mapping of suitable habitats based on spatial distributions of the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) and adopting the habitat aggregation index to understand fragmentation of potential suitable habitats; defining variations in water requirements for a certain species using trade-off analysis for different protection objectives; and recommending environmental flows in the estuary considering the compatibility and conflict of freshwater requirements for different species. This approach was tested using a case study in the Yellow River Estuary. Recommended environmental flows were determined by incorporating the requirements of four types of species into the assessments. Greater variability in freshwater inflows could be incorporated into the recommended environmental flows considering the adaptation of potential suitable habitats with variations in the flow regime. Environmental flow allocations should be conducted in conjunction with land use conflict management in estuaries. Based on the results presented here, the proposed approach offers flexible assessment of environmental flow for aquatic ecosystems that may be subject to future change.

Light scatter on the surface of AcrySof intraocular lenses: part II. Analysis of lenses following hydrolytic stability testing.

PubMed

Yaguchi, Shigeo; Nishihara, Hitoshi; Kambhiranond, Waraporn; Stanley, Daniel; Apple, David

2008-01-01

To investigate the surface light scatter and optical quality of AcrySof lenses (Alcon Laboratories, Inc., Fort Worth, TX) following simulated aging of 20 years. AcrySof lenses were exposed to exaggerated thermal conditions to simulate up to 20 years of aging and were tested for surface light scatter and optical quality (modulation transfer function). There were no significant differences from baseline for either the surface light scatter or optical quality of the lenses over time. The current study demonstrated that surface light scatter on AcrySof lenses did not increase under conditions simulating 20 years of aging. Because the simulated aging environment contained no protein, this work indirectly supports the finding that surface light scatter is due to the deposition of a biomaterial on the lens surface rather than changes in the material. Optical performance integrity of the test lenses was maintained under severe environmental conditions.

Integration of Multiple Data Sources to Simulate the Dynamics of Land Systems

PubMed Central

Deng, Xiangzheng; Su, Hongbo; Zhan, Jinyan

2008-01-01

In this paper we present and develop a new model, which we have called Dynamics of Land Systems (DLS). The DLS model is capable of integrating multiple data sources to simulate the dynamics of a land system. Three main modules are incorporated in DLS: a spatial regression module, to explore the relationship between land uses and influencing factors, a scenario analysis module of the land uses of a region during the simulation period and a spatial disaggregation module, to allocate land use changes from a regional level to disaggregated grid cells. A case study on Taips County in North China is incorporated in this paper to test the functionality of DLS. The simulation results under the baseline, economic priority and environmental scenarios help to understand the land system dynamics and project near future land-use trajectories of a region, in order to focus management decisions on land uses and land use planning. PMID:27879726

Variation of linear and circular polarization persistence for changing field of view and collection area in a forward scattering environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Laan, John D.; Wright, Jeremy B.; Scrymgeour, David A.; Kemme, Shanalyn A.; Dereniak, Eustace L.

2016-05-01

We present experimental and simulation results for a laboratory-based forward-scattering environment, where 1 μm diameter polystyrene spheres are suspended in water to model the optical scattering properties of fog. Circular polarization maintains its degree of polarization better than linear polarization as the optical thickness of the scattering environment increases. Both simulation and experiment quantify circular polarization's superior persistence, compared to that of linear polarization, and show that it is much less affected by variations in the field of view and collection area of the optical system. Our experimental environment's lateral extent was physically finite, causing a significant difference between measured and simulated degree of polarization values for incident linearly polarized light, but not for circularly polarized light. Through simulation we demonstrate that circular polarization is less susceptible to the finite environmental extent as well as the collection optic's limiting configuration.

The Need for High Fidelity Lunar Regolith Simulants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaier, James R.

2007-01-01

The case is made for the need to have high fidelity lunar regolith simulants to verify the performance of structures and mechanisms to be used on the lunar surface. Minor constituents will in some cases have major consequences. Small amounts of sulfur in the regolith can poison catalysts, and metallic iron on the surface of nano-sized dust particles may cause a dramatic increase in its toxicity. So the definition of a high fidelity simulant is application dependent. For example, in situ resource utilization will require high fidelity in chemistry, meaning careful attention to the minor components and phases; but some other applications, such as the abrasive effects on suit fabrics, might be relatively insensitive to minor component chemistry. The lunar environment itself will change the surface chemistry of the simulant, so to have a high fidelity simulant at must be used in a high fidelity simulated environment to get a high fidelity simulation. Research must be conducted to determine how sensitive technologies will be to minor components and environmental factors before they can be dismissed as unimportant.

8s, a numerical simulator of the challenging optical calibration of the E-ELT adaptive mirror M4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briguglio, Runa; Pariani, Giorgio; Xompero, Marco; Riccardi, Armando; Tintori, Matteo; Lazzarini, Paolo; Spanò, Paolo

2016-07-01

8s stands for Optical Test TOwer Simulator (with 8 read as in italian 'otto'): it is a simulation tool for the optical calibration of the E-ELT deformable mirror M4 on its test facility. It has been developed to identify possible criticalities in the procedure, evaluate the solutions and estimate the sensitivity to environmental noise. The simulation system is composed by the finite elements model of the tower, the analytic influence functions of the actuators, the ray tracing propagation of the laser beam through the optical surfaces. The tool delivers simulated phasemaps of M4, associated with the current system status: actuator commands, optics alignment and position, beam vignetting, bench temperature and vibrations. It is possible to simulate a single step of the optical test of M4 by changing the system parameters according to a calibration procedure and collect the associated phasemap for performance evaluation. In this paper we will describe the simulation package and outline the proposed calibration procedure of M4.

The Need for High Fidelity Lunar Regolith Simulants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaier, James R.

2008-01-01

The case is made for the need to have high fidelity lunar regolith simulants to verify the performance of structures, mechanisms, and processes to be used on the lunar surface. Minor constituents will in some cases have major consequences. Small amounts of sulfur in the regolith can poison catalysts, and metallic iron on the surface of nano-sized dust particles may cause a dramatic increase in its toxicity. So the definition of a high fidelity simulant is application-dependent. For example, in situ resource utilization will require high fidelity in chemistry, meaning careful attention to the minor components and phases; but some other applications, such as the abrasive effects on suit fabrics, might be relatively insensitive to minor component chemistry while abrasion of some metal components may be highly dependent on trace components. The lunar environment itself will change the surface chemistry of the simulant, so to have a high fidelity simulant it must be used in a high fidelity simulated environment to get an accurate simulation. Research must be conducted to determine how sensitive technologies will be to minor components and environmental factors before they can be dismissed as unimportant.

Climate Change Signals in the EURO-CORDEX Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacob, Daniela; Preuschmann, Swantje

2014-05-01

A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. Within this presentation, the first results on climate change signals based on simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 will be presented. The new EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The presentation is based on the results of the Paper JACOB et al. (2013). We concentrated on the statistical analysis of robustness and significance of the climate change signals for mean annual and seasonal temperature, total annual and seasonal precipitation, heavy precipitation, heat waves and dry spells, by using daily data for three time periods: 1971-2000, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities. The analysis of projected changes in the 95th percentile of the mean length of dry spells shows similar patterns for all scenarios. The climate projections from the new ensemble indicate a reduced northwards shift of Mediterranean drying evolution and slightly stronger mean precipitation increases over most of Europe. Within the high-resolution simulations in the EURO-CORDEX changes of the pattern for heavy precipitation events are clearly visible. (Jacob2013) Jacob, D.; Petersen, J.; Eggert, B.; Alias, A.; Christensen, O. B.; Bouwer, L.; Braun, A.; Colette, A.; Déqué, M.; Georgievski, G.; Georgopoulou, E.; Gobiet, A.; Menut, L.; Nikulin, G.; Haensler, A.; Hempelmann, N.; Jones, C.; Keuler, K.; Kovats, S.; Kröner, N.; Kotlarski, S.; Kriegsmann, A.; Martin, E.; Meijgaard, E.; Moseley, C.; Pfeifer, S.; Preuschmann, S.; Radermacher, C.; Radtke, K.; Rechid, D.; Rounsevell, M.; Samuelsson, P.; Somot, S.; Soussana, J.-F.; Teichmann, C.; Valentini, R.; Vautard, R.; Weber, B. & Yiou, P.( 2013): EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research Regional Environmental Change, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013, 1-16.

Monitoring, analyzing and simulating of spatial-temporal changes of landscape pattern over mining area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Pei; Han, Ruimei; Wang, Shuangting

2014-11-01

According to the merits of remotely sensed data in depicting regional land cover and Land changes, multi- objective information processing is employed to remote sensing images to analyze and simulate land cover in mining areas. In this paper, multi-temporal remotely sensed data were selected to monitor the pattern, distri- bution and trend of LUCC and predict its impacts on ecological environment and human settlement in mining area. The monitor, analysis and simulation of LUCC in this coal mining areas are divided into five steps. The are information integration of optical and SAR data, LULC types extraction with SVM classifier, LULC trends simulation with CA Markov model, landscape temporal changes monitoring and analysis with confusion matrixes and landscape indices. The results demonstrate that the improved data fusion algorithm could make full use of information extracted from optical and SAR data; SVM classifier has an efficient and stable ability to obtain land cover maps, which could provide a good basis for both land cover change analysis and trend simulation; CA Markov model is able to predict LULC trends with good performance, and it is an effective way to integrate remotely sensed data with spatial-temporal model for analysis of land use / cover change and corresponding environmental impacts in mining area. Confusion matrixes are combined with landscape indices to evaluation and analysis show that, there was a sustained downward trend in agricultural land and bare land, but a continues growth trend tendency in water body, forest and other lands, and building area showing a wave like change, first increased and then decreased; mining landscape has undergone a from small to large and large to small process of fragmentation, agricultural land is the strongest influenced landscape type in this area, and human activities are the primary cause, so the problem should be pay more attentions by government and other organizations.

An introduction to three-dimensional climate modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Washington, W. M.; Parkinson, C. L.

1986-01-01

The development and use of three-dimensional computer models of the earth's climate are discussed. The processes and interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice are examined. The basic theory of climate simulation which includes the fundamental equations, models, and numerical techniques for simulating the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice is described. Simulated wind, temperature, precipitation, ocean current, and sea ice distribution data are presented and compared to observational data. The responses of the climate to various environmental changes, such as variations in solar output or increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, are modeled. Future developments in climate modeling are considered. Information is also provided on the derivation of the energy equation, the finite difference barotropic forecast model, the spectral transform technique, and the finite difference shallow water waved equation model.

A Quantitative Investigation of Entrainment and Detrainment in Numerically Simulated Convective Clouds. Pt. 1; Model Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Charles

1998-01-01

A method is developed which uses numerical tracers to make accurate diagnoses of entraimnent and detrainment rates and of the properties of the entrained and detrained air in numerically simulated clouds. The numerical advection scheme is modified to make it nondispersive, as required by the use of the tracers. Tests of the new method are made, and an appropriate definition of clouds is selected. Distributions of mixing fractions in the model consistently show maximums at the end points, for nearly undilute environmental air or nearly undilute cloud air, with a uniform distribution between. The cumulonimbus clouds simulated here entrain air that had been substantially changed by the clouds, and detrained air that is not necessarily representative of the cloud air at the same level.

A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, Brian J.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wassen, Martin J.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Dekker, Stefan C.

2018-01-01

We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

Field Demonstration and Validation of TREECS and CTS for the Risk Assessment of Contaminants on Department of Defense Ranges

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

Chemical Transformation Simulator (CTS) was developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to provide physicochemical properties of complex...Site Model CTS Chemical Transformation Simulator developed by EPA D4EM Data for Environmental Modeling Demo Demolition area DNAN 2,4...U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), was the technical point-of-contact for the Contaminant Transformation Simulator (CTS) that was

Winning the Energy Game.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zielinski, Edward J.; Bethel, Lowell J.

1983-01-01

Describes the use of an Energy-Environment Simulator in environmental/energy education programs. The simulator is a specially designed analog computer that simulates real-world conditions of energy production and use. Energy resources, demands, and the environmental effects of energy use are programmed into the computer. (Author/JN)

Code modernization and modularization of APEX and SWAT watershed simulation models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and APEX (Agricultural Policy / Environmental eXtender) are respectively large and small watershed simulation models derived from EPIC Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), a field-scale agroecology simulation model. All three models are coded in FORTRAN an...

Ensemble of European regional climate simulations for the winter of 2013 and 2014 from HadAM3P-RM3P

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaller, Nathalie; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Massey, Neil R.; Bowery, Andy; Miller, Jonathan; Wilson, Simon; Wallom, David C. H.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

2018-04-01

Large data sets used to study the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the 2013/14 floods in the UK are provided. The data consist of perturbed initial conditions simulations using the Weather@Home regional climate modelling framework. Two different base conditions, Actual, including atmospheric conditions (anthropogenic greenhouse gases and human induced aerosols) as at present and Natural, with these forcings all removed are available. The data set is made up of 13 different ensembles (2 actual and 11 natural) with each having more than 7500 members. The data is available as NetCDF V3 files representing monthly data within the period of interest (1st Dec 2013 to 15th February 2014) for both a specified European region at a 50 km horizontal resolution and globally at N96 resolution. The data is stored within the UK Natural and Environmental Research Council Centre for Environmental Data Analysis repository.

Simulated Space Vacuum Ultraviolet (VUV) Exposure Testing for Polymer Films

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dever, Joyce A.; Pietromica, Anthony J.; Stueber, Thomas J.; Sechkar, Edward A.; Messer, Russell K.

2002-01-01

Vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation of wavelengths between 115 and 200 nm produced by the sun in the space environment can cause degradation to polymer films producing changes in optical, mechanical, and chemical properties. These effects are particularly important for thin polymer films being considered for ultra-lightweight space structures, because, for most polymers, VUV radiation is absorbed in a thin surface layer. NASA Glenn Research Center has developed facilities and methods for long-term ground testing of polymer films to evaluate space environmental VUV radiation effects. VUV exposure can also be used as part of sequential simulated space environmental exposures to determine combined damaging effects. This paper will describe the effects of VUV on polymer films and the necessity for ground testing. Testing practices used at Glenn Research Center for VUV exposure testing will be described including characterization of the VUV radiation source used, calibration procedures traceable to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and testing techniques for VUV exposure of polymer surfaces.

Examining the contradiction in 'sustainable urban growth': an example of groundwater sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zellner, Moira L.; Reeves, Howard W.

2012-01-01

The environmental planning literature proposes a set of 'best management practices' for urban development that assumes improvement in environmental quality as a result of specific urban patterns. These best management practices, however, often do not recognise finite biophysical limits and social impacts that urban patterns alone cannot overcome. To shed light on this debate, we explore the effects of different degrees of urban clustering on groundwater levels using a coupled land-use change and groundwater-flow model. Our simulations show that specific urban forms only slow down the impact on groundwater. As population increases, the pattern in which it is accommodated ceases to matter, and widespread depletion ensues. These results are predictable, yet current planning practice tends to take growth for granted and is reluctant to envision either no-growth scenarios or the prospect of depletion. We propose to use simulations such as those presented here to aid in policy discussions that allow decision makers to question the assumption of sustainable growth and suggest alternative forms of development.

Linking growth and yield and process models to estimate impact of environmental changes on growth of loblolly pine

Treesearch

V. Clark Baldwin; Harold E. Burkhart; James A. Westfall; Kelly D. Peterson

2001-01-01

PTAEDA2 is a distance-dependent, individual tree model that simulates the growth and yield of a plantation of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.)on an annual basis. The MAESTRO model utilizes an array of trees in a stand to calculate and integrate the effects of biological and physical variables on the photosynthesis and respiration processes of a target...

Microbial legacies alter decomposition in response to simulated global change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martiny, Jennifer B. H.; Martiny, Adam C.; Weihe, Claudia

Terrestrial ecosystem models assume that microbial communities respond instantaneously, or are immediately resilient, to environmental change. Here we tested this assumption by quantifying the resilience of a leaf litter community to changes in precipitation or nitrogen availability. By manipulating composition within a global change experiment, we decoupled the legacies of abiotic parameters versus that of the microbial community itself. After one rainy season, more variation in fungal composition could be explained by the original microbial inoculum than the litterbag environment (18% versus 5.5% of total variation). This compositional legacy persisted for 3 years, when 6% of the variability in fungalmore » composition was still explained by the microbial origin. In contrast, bacterial composition was generally more resilient than fungal composition. Microbial functioning (measured as decomposition rate) was not immediately resilient to the global change manipulations; decomposition depended on both the contemporary environment and rainfall the year prior. Finally, using metagenomic sequencing, we showed that changes in precipitation, but not nitrogen availability, altered the potential for bacterial carbohydrate degradation, suggesting why the functional consequences of the two experiments may have differed. Predictions of how terrestrial ecosystem processes respond to environmental change may thus be improved by considering the legacies of microbial communities.« less

Microbial legacies alter decomposition in response to simulated global change

DOE PAGES

Martiny, Jennifer B. H.; Martiny, Adam C.; Weihe, Claudia; ...

2016-10-14

Terrestrial ecosystem models assume that microbial communities respond instantaneously, or are immediately resilient, to environmental change. Here we tested this assumption by quantifying the resilience of a leaf litter community to changes in precipitation or nitrogen availability. By manipulating composition within a global change experiment, we decoupled the legacies of abiotic parameters versus that of the microbial community itself. After one rainy season, more variation in fungal composition could be explained by the original microbial inoculum than the litterbag environment (18% versus 5.5% of total variation). This compositional legacy persisted for 3 years, when 6% of the variability in fungalmore » composition was still explained by the microbial origin. In contrast, bacterial composition was generally more resilient than fungal composition. Microbial functioning (measured as decomposition rate) was not immediately resilient to the global change manipulations; decomposition depended on both the contemporary environment and rainfall the year prior. Finally, using metagenomic sequencing, we showed that changes in precipitation, but not nitrogen availability, altered the potential for bacterial carbohydrate degradation, suggesting why the functional consequences of the two experiments may have differed. Predictions of how terrestrial ecosystem processes respond to environmental change may thus be improved by considering the legacies of microbial communities.« less

The Effects of Void Geometry and Contact Angle on the Absorption of Liquids into Porous Calcium Carbonate Structures.

PubMed

Ridgway, Cathy J.; Schoelkopf, Joachim; Matthews, G. Peter; Gane, Patrick A. C.; James, Philip W.

2001-07-15

The absorption (permeation) of alcohols into porous blocks of calcium carbonate has been studied experimentally and with a computer model. The experimental measurement was of change in apparent weight of a block with time after contact with liquid. The modeling used the previously developed 'Pore-Cor' model, based on unit cells of 1000 cubic pores connected by cylindrical throats. To gain some insight into absorption into voids of complex geometry, and to provide a representation of heterogeneities in surface interaction energy, the cylindrical throats were converted to double cones. Relative to cylinders, such geometries caused hold-ups of the percolation of nonwetting fluids with respect to increasing applied pressure, and a change in the rate of absorption of wetting fluids. Both the measured absorption of the alcohols and the simulated absorption of the alcohols and of water showed significant deviations from that predicted by an effective hydraulic radius approximation. The simulation demonstrated the development of a highly heterogeneous wetting front, and of preferred wetting pathways that were perturbed by inertial retardation. The findings are useful in the design of high-performance, low-waste pigments for paper coatings, and environmentally friendly printing inks, as well as in wider industrial, environmental, and geological contexts. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

Linking Air Quality and Human Health Effects Models: An Application to the Los Angeles Air Basin

PubMed Central

Stewart, Devoun R; Saunders, Emily; Perea, Roberto A; Fitzgerald, Rosa; Campbell, David E; Stockwell, William R

2017-01-01

Proposed emission control strategies for reducing ozone and particulate matter are evaluated better when air quality and health effects models are used together. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is the US Environmental Protection Agency’s model for determining public policy and forecasting air quality. CMAQ was used to forecast air quality changes due to several emission control strategies that could be implemented between 2008 and 2030 for the South Coast Air Basin that includes Los Angeles. The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program—Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) was used to estimate health and economic impacts of the different emission control strategies based on CMAQ simulations. BenMAP-CE is a computer program based on epidemiologic studies that link human health and air quality. This modeling approach is better for determining optimum public policy than approaches that only examine concentration changes. PMID:29162976

Linking Air Quality and Human Health Effects Models: An Application to the Los Angeles Air Basin.

PubMed

Stewart, Devoun R; Saunders, Emily; Perea, Roberto A; Fitzgerald, Rosa; Campbell, David E; Stockwell, William R

2017-01-01

Proposed emission control strategies for reducing ozone and particulate matter are evaluated better when air quality and health effects models are used together. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is the US Environmental Protection Agency's model for determining public policy and forecasting air quality. CMAQ was used to forecast air quality changes due to several emission control strategies that could be implemented between 2008 and 2030 for the South Coast Air Basin that includes Los Angeles. The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) was used to estimate health and economic impacts of the different emission control strategies based on CMAQ simulations. BenMAP-CE is a computer program based on epidemiologic studies that link human health and air quality. This modeling approach is better for determining optimum public policy than approaches that only examine concentration changes.

Error Sensitivity to Environmental Noise in Quantum Circuits for Chemical State Preparation.

PubMed

Sawaya, Nicolas P D; Smelyanskiy, Mikhail; McClean, Jarrod R; Aspuru-Guzik, Alán

2016-07-12

Calculating molecular energies is likely to be one of the first useful applications to achieve quantum supremacy, performing faster on a quantum than a classical computer. However, if future quantum devices are to produce accurate calculations, errors due to environmental noise and algorithmic approximations need to be characterized and reduced. In this study, we use the high performance qHiPSTER software to investigate the effects of environmental noise on the preparation of quantum chemistry states. We simulated 18 16-qubit quantum circuits under environmental noise, each corresponding to a unitary coupled cluster state preparation of a different molecule or molecular configuration. Additionally, we analyze the nature of simple gate errors in noise-free circuits of up to 40 qubits. We find that, in most cases, the Jordan-Wigner (JW) encoding produces smaller errors under a noisy environment as compared to the Bravyi-Kitaev (BK) encoding. For the JW encoding, pure dephasing noise is shown to produce substantially smaller errors than pure relaxation noise of the same magnitude. We report error trends in both molecular energy and electron particle number within a unitary coupled cluster state preparation scheme, against changes in nuclear charge, bond length, number of electrons, noise types, and noise magnitude. These trends may prove to be useful in making algorithmic and hardware-related choices for quantum simulation of molecular energies.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

2010-01-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

PubMed

Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

2010-03-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Accounting for Parameter Uncertainty in Complex Atmospheric Models, With an Application to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swallow, B.; Rigby, M. L.; Rougier, J.; Manning, A.; Thomson, D.; Webster, H. N.; Lunt, M. F.; O'Doherty, S.

2016-12-01

In order to understand underlying processes governing environmental and physical phenomena, a complex mathematical model is usually required. However, there is an inherent uncertainty related to the parameterisation of unresolved processes in these simulators. Here, we focus on the specific problem of accounting for uncertainty in parameter values in an atmospheric chemical transport model. Systematic errors introduced by failing to account for these uncertainties have the potential to have a large effect on resulting estimates in unknown quantities of interest. One approach that is being increasingly used to address this issue is known as emulation, in which a large number of forward runs of the simulator are carried out, in order to approximate the response of the output to changes in parameters. However, due to the complexity of some models, it is often unfeasible to run large numbers of training runs that is usually required for full statistical emulators of the environmental processes. We therefore present a simplified model reduction method for approximating uncertainties in complex environmental simulators without the need for very large numbers of training runs. We illustrate the method through an application to the Met Office's atmospheric transport model NAME. We show how our parameter estimation framework can be incorporated into a hierarchical Bayesian inversion, and demonstrate the impact on estimates of UK methane emissions, using atmospheric mole fraction data. We conclude that accounting for uncertainties in the parameterisation of complex atmospheric models is vital if systematic errors are to be minimized and all relevant uncertainties accounted for. We also note that investigations of this nature can prove extremely useful in highlighting deficiencies in the simulator that might otherwise be missed.

Development of a simulation of the surficial groundwater system for the CONUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zell, W.; Sanford, W. E.

2016-12-01

Water resource and environmental managers across the country face a variety of questions involving groundwater availability and/or groundwater transport pathways. Emerging management questions require prediction of groundwater response to changing climate regimes (e.g., how drought-induced water-table recession may degrade near-stream vegetation and result in increased wildfire risks), while existing questions can require identification of current groundwater contributions to surface water (e.g., groundwater linkages between landscape contaminant inputs and receiving streams may help explain in-stream phenomena such as fish intersex). At present, few national-coverage simulation tools exist to help characterize groundwater contributions to receiving streams and predict potential changes in base-flow regimes under changing climate conditions. We will describe the Phase 1 development of a simulation of the water table and shallow groundwater system for the entire CONUS. We use national-scale datasets such as the National Recharge Map and the Map Database for Surficial Materials in the CONUS to develop groundwater flow (MODFLOW) and transport (MODPATH) models that are calibrated against groundwater level and stream elevation data from NWIS and NHD, respectively. Phase 1 includes the development of a national transmissivity map for the surficial groundwater system and examines the impact of model-grid resolution on the simulated steady-state discharge network (and associated recharge areas) and base-flow travel time distributions for different HUC scales. In the course of developing the transmissivity map we show that transmissivity in fractured bedrock systems is dependent on depth to water. Subsequent phases of this work will simulate water table changes at a monthly time step (using MODIS-dependent recharge estimates) and serve as a critical complement to surface-water-focused USGS efforts to provide national coverage hydrologic modeling tools.

IBSEM: An Individual-Based Atlantic Salmon Population Model.

PubMed

Castellani, Marco; Heino, Mikko; Gilbey, John; Araki, Hitoshi; Svåsand, Terje; Glover, Kevin A

2015-01-01

Ecology and genetics can influence the fate of individuals and populations in multiple ways. However, to date, few studies consider them when modelling the evolutionary trajectory of populations faced with admixture with non-local populations. For the Atlantic salmon, a model incorporating these elements is urgently needed because many populations are challenged with gene-flow from non-local and domesticated conspecifics. We developed an Individual-Based Salmon Eco-genetic Model (IBSEM) to simulate the demographic and population genetic change of an Atlantic salmon population through its entire life-cycle. Processes such as growth, mortality, and maturation are simulated through stochastic procedures, which take into account environmental variables as well as the genotype of the individuals. IBSEM is based upon detailed empirical data from salmon biology, and parameterized to reproduce the environmental conditions and the characteristics of a wild population inhabiting a Norwegian river. Simulations demonstrated that the model consistently and reliably reproduces the characteristics of the population. Moreover, in absence of farmed escapees, the modelled populations reach an evolutionary equilibrium that is similar to our definition of a 'wild' genotype. We assessed the sensitivity of the model in the face of assumptions made on the fitness differences between farm and wild salmon, and evaluated the role of straying as a buffering mechanism against the intrusion of farm genes into wild populations. These results demonstrate that IBSEM is able to capture the evolutionary forces shaping the life history of wild salmon and is therefore able to model the response of populations under environmental and genetic stressors.

Challenges and opportunities in land surface modelling of savanna ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitley, Rhys; Beringer, Jason; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Abramowitz, Gabriel; De Kauwe, Martin G.; Evans, Bradley; Haverd, Vanessa; Li, Longhui; Moore, Caitlin; Ryu, Youngryel; Scheiter, Simon; Schymanski, Stanislaus J.; Smith, Benjamin; Wang, Ying-Ping; Williams, Mathew; Yu, Qiang

2017-10-01

The savanna complex is a highly diverse global biome that occurs within the seasonally dry tropical to sub-tropical equatorial latitudes and are structurally and functionally distinct from grasslands and forests. Savannas are open-canopy environments that encompass a broad demographic continuum, often characterised by a changing dominance between C3-tree and C4-grass vegetation, where frequent environmental disturbances such as fire modulates the balance between ephemeral and perennial life forms. Climate change is projected to result in significant changes to the savanna floristic structure, with increases to woody biomass expected through CO2 fertilisation in mesic savannas and increased tree mortality expected through increased rainfall interannual variability in xeric savannas. The complex interaction between vegetation and climate that occurs in savannas has traditionally challenged terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), which aim to simulate the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface to predict responses of vegetation to changing in environmental forcing. In this review, we examine whether TBMs are able to adequately represent savanna fluxes and what implications potential deficiencies may have for climate change projection scenarios that rely on these models. We start by highlighting the defining characteristic traits and behaviours of savannas, how these differ across continents and how this information is (or is not) represented in the structural framework of many TBMs. We highlight three dynamic processes that we believe directly affect the water use and productivity of the savanna system: phenology, root-water access and fire dynamics. Following this, we discuss how these processes are represented in many current-generation TBMs and whether they are suitable for simulating savanna fluxes.Finally, we give an overview of how eddy-covariance observations in combination with other data sources can be used in model benchmarking and intercomparison frameworks to diagnose the performance of TBMs in this environment and formulate road maps for future development. Our investigation reveals that many TBMs systematically misrepresent phenology, the effects of fire and root-water access (if they are considered at all) and that these should be critical areas for future development. Furthermore, such processes must not be static (i.e. prescribed behaviour) but be capable of responding to the changing environmental conditions in order to emulate the dynamic behaviour of savannas. Without such developments, however, TBMs will have limited predictive capability in making the critical projections needed to understand how savannas will respond to future global change.

Integration of Linear Dynamic Emission and Climate Models with Air Traffic Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sridhar, Banavar; Ng, Hok K.; Chen, Neil Y.

2012-01-01

Future air traffic management systems are required to balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety and efficiency of traffic flows while minimizing the climate impact of aviation emissions and contrails. Integrating emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations improve the understanding of the complex interaction between the physical climate system, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in global surface temperature change. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails and the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA s Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

Construction of Interaction Layer on Socio-Environmental Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torii, Daisuke; Ishida, Toru

In this study, we propose a method to construct a system based on a legacy socio-environmental simulator which enables to design more realistic interaction models in socio-environmetal simulations. First, to provide a computational model suitable for agent interactions, an interaction layer is constructed and connected from outside of a legacy socio-environmental simulator. Next, to configure the agents interacting ability, connection description for controlling the flow of information in the connection area is provided. As a concrete example, we realized an interaction layer by Q which is a scenario description language and connected it to CORMAS, a socio-envirionmental simulator. Finally, we discuss the capability of our method, using the system, in the Fire-Fighter domain.

Predicting the Arctic Ocean Environment in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksenov, Yevgeny; Popova, Ekaterina; Yool, Andrew; Nurser, George

2015-04-01

Recent environmental changes in the Arctic have clearly demonstrated that climate change is faster and more vigorously in the Polar Regions than anywhere else. Significantly, change in the Arctic Ocean (AO) environment presents a variety of impacts, from ecological to social-economic and political. Mitigation of this change and adaptation to it requires detailed and robust environmental predictions. Here we present a detailed projection of ocean circulation and sea ice from the present until 2099, based on an eddy-permitting high-resolution global simulation of the NEMO ¼ degree ocean model. The model is forced at the surface with HadGEM2-ES atmosphere model output from the UK Met. Office IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The HadGEM2-ES simulations span 1860-2099 and are one of an ensemble of runs performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and IPCC AR5. Between 2000-2009 and 2090-2099 the AO experiences a significant warming, with sea surface temperature increasing on average by about 4° C, particularly in the Barents and Kara Seas, and in the Greenland Sea and Hudson Bay. By the end of the simulation, Arctic sea ice has an average annual thickness of less than 10 cm in the central AO, and less than 0.5 m in the East-Siberian Sea and Canadian Archipelago, and disappears entirely during the Arctic summer. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface waves leads to the Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). In winter, sea ice persists until the 2030s; then it sharply declines and disappears from the Central Arctic Ocean by the end of the 21st century, with MIZ provinces remaining in winter along the Siberian, Alaskan coasts and in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Analysis of the AO circulation reveals evidence of (i) the reversal of the Arctic boundary currents in the Canadian Basin, from a weak cyclonic current in 2040-2049 to a strong anti-cyclonic current in 2090-2099, and (ii) increased anti-cyclonic surface ocean circulation in the eastern part of the AO, while the surface circulation in the western Arctic becomes more cyclonic. We relate the shift in the circulation to changes in the winds and reduction of sea ice cover, which modify momentum transfer from atmosphere to the ocean. Our simulation suggests a potentially complex picture of future AO change, and highlights the importance of high resolution modelling in forecasting it.

Sr/Ca and δ18O records of a coral from Sanya: reconstructions of temperature and precipitation in the northern South China Sea in the late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, S.; Xoplaki, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Zorita, E.; Fleitmann, D.; Preiser-Kapeller, J.; Toreti, A., , Dr; Sargent, A. M.; Bozkurt, D.; White, S.; Haldon, J. F.; Akçer-Ön, S.; Izdebski, A.

2016-12-01

Past civilisations were influenced by complex external and internal forces, including changes in the environment, climate, politics and economy. A geographical hotspot of the interplay between those agents is the Mediterranean, a cradle of cultural and scientific development. We analyse a novel compilation of high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Mediterranean and compare them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for three historical time intervals - the Crusaders, 1095-1290 CE; the Mamluk regime in Transjordan, 1260-1516 CE; and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion, 1580-1610 CE - when environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. ESMs provide important information on the dynamical mechanisms and underlying processes that led to anomalous hydroclimatic conditions of the past. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean during the three periods cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. The integrated analysis of palaeoclimate proxies, climate reconstructions and model simulations sheds light on our understanding of past climate change and its societal impact. Finally, our research emphasises the need to further study the societal dimension of environmental and climate change in the past, in order to properly understand the role that climate has played in human history.

Light-driven changes in energy metabolism directly entrain the cyanobacterial circadian oscillator

PubMed Central

Rust, Michael J.; Golden, Susan S.; O'Shea, Erin K.

2012-01-01

Circadian clocks are self-sustained biological oscillators that can be entrained by environmental cues. Though this phenomenon has been studied in many organisms, the molecular mechanisms of entrainment remain unclear. Three cyanobacterial proteins and ATP are sufficient to generate oscillations in phosphorylation in vitro. We show that changes in illumination that induce a phase shift in cultured cyanobacteria also cause changes in the ATP/ADP ratio. When these nucleotide changes are simulated in the in vitro oscillator, they cause phase shifts similar to those observed in vivo. Physiological concentrations of ADP inhibit kinase activity in the oscillator and a mathematical model constrained by data shows that this effect is sufficient to quantitatively explain entrainment of the cyanobacterial circadian clock. PMID:21233390

Simulated environmental criticalities affect transglutaminase of Malus and Corylus pollens having different allergenic potential.

PubMed

Iorio, Rosa Anna; Di Sandro, Alessia; Paris, Roberta; Pagliarani, Giulia; Tartarini, Stefano; Ricci, Giampaolo; Serafini-Fracassini, Donatella; Verderio, Elisabetta; Del Duca, Stefano

2012-02-01

Increases in temperature and air pollution influence pollen allergenicity, which is responsible for the dramatic raise in respiratory allergies. To clarify possible underlying mechanisms, an anemophilous pollen (hazel, Corylus avellana), known to be allergenic, and an entomophilous one (apple, Malus domestica), the allergenicity of which was not known, were analysed. The presence also in apple pollen of known fruit allergens and their immunorecognition by serum of an allergic patient were preliminary ascertained, resulting also apple pollen potentially allergenic. Pollens were subjected to simulated stressful conditions, provided by changes in temperature, humidity, and copper and acid rain pollution. In the two pollens exposed to environmental criticalities, viability and germination were negatively affected and different transglutaminase (TGase) gel bands were differently immunodetected with the polyclonal antibody AtPng1p. The enzyme activity increased under stressful treatments and, along with its products, was found to be released outside the pollen with externalisation of TGase being predominant in C. avellana, whose grain presents a different cell wall composition with respect to that of M. domestica. A recombinant plant TGase (AtPng1p) stimulated the secreted phospholipase A(2) (sPLA(2)) activity, that in vivo is present in human mucosa and is involved in inflammation. Similarly, stressed pollen, hazel pollen being the most efficient, stimulated to very different extent sPLA(2) activity and putrescine conjugation to sPLA(2). We propose that externalised pollen TGase could be one of the mediators of pollen allergenicity, especially under environmental stress induced by climate changes.

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Judd, Chaeli; Woodruff, Dana; Ellis, Jean; Quattrochi, Dale; Watson, Brian; Rodriquez, Hugo; Johnson, Hoyt

2012-01-01

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA s EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for dissemination to coastal resource managers and stakeholders. Objective 1: Develop and utilize Land Use scenarios for Mobile and Baldwin Counties, AL as input to models to predict the affects on water properties (temperature,salinity,)for Mobile Bay through 2030. Objective 2: Evaluate the impact of land use change on seagrasses and SAV in Mobile Bay. Hypothesis: Urbanization will significantly increase surface flows and impact salinity and temperature variables that effect seagrasses and SAVs.

Delft3D turbine turbulence module v. 1.0.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chartrand, Chris; Jagers, Bert

2016-08-25

The DOE has funded Sandia National Labs (SNL) to develop an open-source modeling tool to guide the design and layout of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) arrays to maximize power production while minimizing environmental effects. This modeling framework simulates flows through and around a MHK arrays while quantifying environmental responses. As an augmented version of the Dutch company, Deltares’s, environmental hydrodynamics code, Delft3D, Delft3D-CEC includes a new module that simulates energy conversion (momentum withdrawal) by MHK current energy conversion devices with commensurate changes in the turbulent kinetic energy and its dissipation rate. The Following is a description of Deltares’s open-source code Delft3Dmore » from which Delft3D-CEC is built upon. “Delft3D is a world leading 3D modeling suite to investigate hydrodynamics, sediment transport and morphology and water quality for fluvial, estuarine and coastal environments. As per 1 January 2011, the Delft3D flow (FLOW), morphology (MOR) and waves (WAVE) modules are available in open source. The software is used and has proven his capabilities on many places around the world, like the Netherlands, USA, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, Venice, etc. The software is continuously improved and developed with innovating advanced modelling techniques as consequence of the research work of our institute and to stay world leading. The FLOW module is the heart of Delft3D and is a multi-dimensional (2D or 3D) hydrodynamic (and transport) simulation programme which calculates non-steady flow and transport phenomena resulting from tidal and meteorological forcing on a curvilinear, boundary fitted grid or sperical coordinates. In 3D simulations, the vertical grid is defined following the so-called sigma coordinate approach or Z-layer approach. The MOR module computes sediment transport (both suspended and bed total load) and morphological changes for an arbitrary number of cohesive and non-cohesive fractions. Both currents and waves act as driving forces and a wide variety of transport formulae have been incorporated. For the suspended load this module connects to the 2D or 3D advection-diffusion solver of the FLOW module; density effects may be taken into account. An essential feature of the MOR module is the dynamic feedback with the FLOW and WAVE modules, which allow the flows and waves to adjust themselves to the local bathymetry and allows for simulations on any time scale from days (storm impact) to centuries (system dynamics). It can keep track of the bed composition to build up a stratigraphic record. The MOR module may be extended to include extensive features to simulate dredging and dumping scenarios. For over 30 years Deltares has been in the forefront of these types of combined morphological simulation techniques.”« less

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

PubMed Central

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Moritz, Max A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. PMID:19352494

Climate Change and Arctic Issues in the Marine and Environmental Science Curriculum at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlietstra, L.; McConnell, M. C.; Bergondo, D. L.; Mrakovcich, K. L.; Futch, V.; Stutzman, B. S.; Fleischmann, C. M.

2016-02-01

As global climate change becomes more evident, demand will likely increase for experts with a detailed understanding of the scientific basis of climate change, the ocean's role in the earth-atmosphere system, and forecasted impacts, especially in Arctic regions where effects may be most pronounced. As a result, programs in marine and environmental sciences are uniquely poised to prepare graduates for the formidable challenges posed by changing climates. Here we present research evaluating the prevalence and themes of courses focusing on anthropogenic climate change in 125 Marine Science and Environmental Science undergraduate programs at 86 institutions in the United States. These results, in addition to the increasing role of the Coast Guard in the Arctic, led to the development of two new courses in the curriculum. Climate Change Science, a one-credit seminar, includes several student-centered activities supporting key learning objectives. Polar Oceanography, a three-credit course, incorporates a major outreach component to Coast Guard units and members of the scientific community. Given the importance of climate change in Arctic regions in particular, we also propose six essential "Arctic Literacy Principles" around which courses or individual lesson plans may be organized. We show how these principles are incorporated into an additional new three-credit course, Model Arctic Council, which prepares students to participate in a week-long simulation exercise of Arctic Council meetings, held in Fairbanks, Alaska. Students examine the history and mission of the Arctic Council and explore some of the issues on which the council has deliberated. Special attention is paid to priorities of the current U.S. chairmanship of the Arctic Council which include climate change impacts on, and stewardship of, the Arctic Ocean.

Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-09-01

The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and development of strategic climate change adaptation measures.

Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delincé, Jacques; Ciaian, Pavel; Witzke, Heinz-Peter

2015-01-01

The current paper investigates the long-term global impacts on crop productivity under different climate scenarios using the AgMIP approach (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The paper provides horizontal model intercomparison from 11 economic models as well as a more detailed analysis of the simulated effects from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model to systematically compare its performance with other AgMIP models and specifically for the Chinese agriculture. CAPRI is a comparative static partial equilibrium model extensively used for medium and long-term economic and environmental policy impact applications. The results indicate that, at the global level, the climate change will cause an agricultural productivity decrease (between -2% and -15% by 2050), a food price increase (between 1.3% and 56%) and an expansion of cultivated area (between 1% and 4%) by 2050. The results for China indicate that the climate change effects tend to be smaller than the global impacts. The CAPRI-simulated effects are, in general, close to the median across all AgMIP models. Model intercomparison analyses reveal consistency in terms of direction of change to climate change but relatively strong heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effects between models.

Test-Free Fracture Toughness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minnetyan, Levon; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

Computational simulation results can give the prediction of damage growth and progression and fracture toughness of composite structures. The experimental data from literature provide environmental effects on the fracture behavior of metallic or fiber composite structures. However, the traditional experimental methods to analyze the influence of the imposed conditions are expensive and time consuming. This research used the CODSTRAN code to model the temperature effects, scaling effects and the loading effects of fiber/braided composite specimens with and without fiber-optic sensors on the damage initiation and energy release rates. The load-displacement relationship and fracture toughness assessment approach is compared with the test results from literature and it is verified that the computational simulation, with the use of established material modeling and finite element modules, adequately tracks the changes of fracture toughness and subsequent fracture propagation for any fiber/braided composite structure due to the change of fiber orientations, presence of large diameter optical fibers, and any loading conditions.

Test-Free Fracture Toughness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minnetyan, Levon; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

Computational simulation results can give the prediction of damage growth and progression and fracture toughness of composite structures. The experimental data from literature provide environmental effects on the fracture behavior of metallic or fiber composite structures. However, the traditional experimental methods to analyze the influence of the imposed conditions are expensive and time consuming. This research used the CODSTRAN code to model the temperature effects, scaling effects and the loading effects of fiberbraided composite specimens with and without fiber-optic sensors on the damage initiation and energy release rates. The load-displacement relationship and fracture toughness assessment approach is compared with the test results from literature and it is verified that the computational simulation, with the use of established material modeling and finite element modules, adequately tracks the changes of fracture toughness and subsequent fracture propagation for any fiberbraided composite structure due to the change of fiber orientations, presence of large diameter optical fibers, and any loading conditions.

Increased filamentous growth of Candida albicans in simulated microgravity.

PubMed

Altenburg, Sara D; Nielsen-Preiss, Sheila M; Hyman, Linda E

2008-03-01

Knowledge of simulated microgravity (SMG)-induced changes in the pathogenicity of microorganisms is important for success of long-term spaceflight. In a previous study using the high aspect ratio vessel bioreactor, we showed that the yeast species Saccharomyces cerevisiae underwent a significant phenotypic response when grown in modeled microgravity, which was reflected in the analysis of gene expression profiles. In this study, we establish that Candida albicans responds to SMG in a similar fashion, demonstrating that there is a conserved response among yeast to this environmental stress. We also report that the growth of C. albicans in SMG results in a morphogenic switch that is consistent with enhanced pathogenicity. Specifically, we observed an increase in filamentous forms of the organism and accompanying changes in the expression of two genes associated with the yeast-hyphal transition. The morphological response may have significant implications for astronauts' safety, as the fungal pathogen may become more virulent during spaceflight.

Modeling and visual simulation of Microalgae photobioreactor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Ming; Hou, Dapeng; Hu, Dawei

Microalgae is a kind of nutritious and high photosynthetic efficiency autotrophic plant, which is widely distributed in the land and the sea. It can be extensively used in medicine, food, aerospace, biotechnology, environmental protection and other fields. Photobioreactor which is important equipment is mainly used to cultivate massive and high-density microalgae. In this paper, based on the mathematical model of microalgae which grew under different light intensity, three-dimensional visualization model was built and implemented in 3ds max, Virtools and some other three dimensional software. Microalgae is photosynthetic organism, it can efficiently produce oxygen and absorb carbon dioxide. The goal of the visual simulation is to display its change and impacting on oxygen and carbon dioxide intuitively. In this paper, different temperatures and light intensities were selected to control the photobioreactor, and dynamic change of microalgal biomass, Oxygen and carbon dioxide was observed with the aim of providing visualization support for microalgal and photobioreactor research.

Information Foraging and Change Detection for Automated Science Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Furlong, P. Michael; Dille, Michael

2016-01-01

This paper presents a new algorithm for autonomous on-line exploration in unknown environments. The objective is to free remote scientists from possibly-infeasible extensive preliminary site investigation prior to sending robotic agents. We simulate a common exploration task for an autonomous robot sampling the environment at various locations and compare performance against simpler control strategies. An extension is proposed and evaluated that further permits operation in the presence of environmental variability in which the robot encounters a change in the distribution underlying sampling targets. Experimental results indicate a strong improvement in performance across varied parameter choices for the scenario.

Ecolabeled paper towels: consumer valuation and expenditure analysis.

PubMed

Srinivasan, Arun K; Blomquist, Glenn C

2009-01-01

Ecolabeled paper towels are manufactured using post-consumer recycled material and sold in markets using a recycle logo. Environmentally conscious consumers purchase these paper towels and thereby contribute to improving environmental quality. In this paper, we estimate the implicit value placed by consumers on ecolabeled paper towels using a hedonic price function and conduct an expenditure analysis using Heckman's selection model. Using the data set from the Internet-based grocery stores called as Peapod we find that some consumers recognize ecolabels on paper towels and place a substantial, positive price premium on them. The expenditure analysis indicates that for the preferred functional form, the demand for ecolabeled paper towels is inelastic for environmentally conscious consumers. The simulated results from the selection model indicate that a small subsidy for ecolabeled paper towels will not substantially change consumers' purchase decisions.

Stromatolite laminae (Lagoa Vermelha, Brasil) as archives for reservoir age changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruggmann, Sylvie; Vasconcelos, Crisogono; Hajdas, Irka

2016-04-01

As laminated biogenic or abiogenic sedimentary structures [1], stromatolites record environmental changes along growth profiles, revealing possible changes in reservoir ages due to input of older carbon. A modern stromatolite sample was collected in Lagoa Vermelha (100 km east of Rio de Janeiro, Brasil) an area known for upwelling of South Atlantic Central Water (SACW). 34 samples from a transect cutting the lamination were collected with a hand-driller for standard geochemistry and 14C AMS analyses. Shells collected in 2015 were analysed for estimation of the present-day reservoir age. 14C ages of laminae and the reservoir age were used to apply the age-depth model to the stromatolite transect with the OxCal depositional model (Marine13 calibration curve; [2]). Small-scale changes in the composition of laminae report environmental changes, e.g. upwelling. The well-laminated middle part (laminated boundstone; ca. 4cm) of the stromatolite transect was found to have grown in a short time period of less than 100 years (1163-1210 14C y BP), with four excursions towards older 14C ages (ca. 1200 14C y BP). To detect possible changes of marine 14C, calendar years assuming a stable modern reservoir age were used to simulate atmospheric 14C ages with the southern hemisphere IntCal13 atmospheric calibration curve [3]. The offset between the measured and simulated 14C ages indicates a variability of the reservoir age between -99 and 268 14C y with highest reservoir correction found for the layers with indication of environmental changes (e.g. upwelling). Thus, this simulation confirms the occurrence of older carbon and points out the sensitivity of stromatolites for changing reservoir ages. [1] M.A. Semikhatov, C.D. Gebelein, P. Cloud, S.M. Awramik, W.C. Benmore (1979). Stromatolite morphogenesis - progress and problems. Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, 19:992-1015. [2] P.J. Reimer, E. Bard, A. Bayliss, J. W. Beck, P. G. Blackwell, C. Bronk Ramsey, C. E. Buck, H. Cheng, R.L. Edwards, M. Friedrich, P.M. Grootes, T.P. Guilderson, H. Haflidason, I. Hajdas, C. Hatté, T.J. Heaton, D.L. Hoffmann, A.G. Hogg, K.A. Hughen, K.F. Kaiser, B. Kromer, S.W. Manning, M. Niu, R.W. Reimer, D.A. Richards, E.M. Scott, J. R. Southon, R.A. Staff, C.S.M. Turney, J. van der Plicht (2013). IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0-50,000 years cal BP. Radiocarbon 55(4):1869-1887. [3] A.G. Hogg, Q. Hua, P.G. Blackwell, M. Niu, C.E. Buck, T.P. Guilderson, T.J. Heaton, J.G. Palmer, P.J. Reimer, R.W. Reimer, C.S.M. Turney, S.R.H. Zimmerman (2013). Shcal13 southern hemisphere calibration, 0-50,000 years cal BP. Radiocarbon, 55(2):1-15.

Holocene biome shifts in the East Asian monsoon margin region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, Anne; Claussen, Martin; Ni, Jian; Wang, Yongbo; Cao, Xianyong; Herzschuh, Ulrike

2013-04-01

East Asia is affected by three major atmospheric circulation systems determining the regional climate and vegetation distribution: The moisture advected by the Indian and East Asian monsoon support the growing of forest in large parts of Eastern China. The influence of the monsoon gets weaker further on the continent yielding a transition of forest to steppe and of steppe to desert in Central East Asia (e.g. Inner Mongolia) where the dry westerly winds prevail. Particularly in these transition zones, vegetation is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change and strong feedbacks are expected in case of climate and vegetation shifts due to large environmental changes (Feng et al., 2006). During mid-Holocene, cyclic variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun led to an enhancement of the Asian monsoon system probably causing strong shifts in the biome distribution. According to reconstructions, the steppe-forest margin moved to the northwest by about 500km (Yu et al., 2000) and the desert area in China and Inner Mongolia was substantially reduced compared to today (Feng et al., 2006). However, in the complex environment of Asia, the locally limited reconstructions may not portray the general vegetation change. To get a systematic overview on the spatial pattern of biome shifts in the Asian monsoon - westerly wind transition zone since mid-Holocene, we use the diagnostic vegetation model BIOME4 and force this model with climate anomalies from different transient Holocene climate simulations performed in coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation models. The main aims of this study are to a) get a consistent ensemble of possible changes in biome distribution since the mid-Holocene b) test the robustness of the simulated vegetation changes and quantify the differences between the models, and c) allow for a better comparison of simulated and reconstructed vegetation changes. Preliminary results confirm the general trend seen in the reconstructions. The simulations reveal an expansion of forest for most models and a substantially reduced desert fraction in the transition zone during mid-Holocene. However, the amplitude of the signal and the trend varies for the different climate models. At mid-Holocene, the desert-steppe margin is located further west by approx. 6° in the ensemble mean ranging from 1° to 10° in the different simulations. The forest biomes extend further north-westward by approx. 2° in the ensemble mean ranging from 0° to 4°. In some simulations, the biome distribution shows a strong variability during the last 6000 years and a strong increase of desert starting 500 years before present. In other simulations the biome distribution stays relatively constant until 4500 years before present, afterwards the desert border gradually moves eastward to its present-day position. References: Feng, Z.-D., An, C.B., and Wang, H.B.: Holocene climatic and environmental changes in the arid and semi-arid areas of China: a review. The Holocene 16(1), 119-130, 2006. Yu, G., Chen, X., Ni, J., Cheddadi, R., Guiot, J., Han, H., Harrison, S.P., Huang, C., Ke, M., Kong, Z., Li, S., Li, W., Liew, P., Liu, G., Liu, J., Liu, Q., Liu, K.-B., Prentice, I.C., Qui, W., Ren, G., Song, C., Sugita, S., Sun, X., Tang, L., Van Campo, E., Xia, Y., Xu, Q., Yan, S., Yang, X., Zhao, J., and Zheng, Z.: Palaeovegetation of China: a pollen date-based synthesis for the mid-Holocene and last glacial maximum. J. Biogeogr., 27, 635-664, 2000.

On the importance of cloud—cloud interaction to invigorate convective extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Peter; Moseley, Christopher; Hohenegger, Cathy; Haerter, Jan

2017-04-01

Observational studies have shown that convective extremes are invigorated with increasing temperatures beyond thermodynamic constraints through the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship (e.g. Lenderink and van Meijgaard, Nature Geosci., 2008; Berg et al., Nature Geosci., 2013). This implies that there are changes in the dynamics of the convective showers that are dependent on the environmental conditions. Observations of convective cells lack sufficient resolution to investigate the dynamics in detail. We have therefore applied a large eddy simulator (LES) at a 200 m horizontal resolution to study the dynamical interaction between convective cells in a set of idealized simulations of a full diurnal cycle with a vertical profile of a typical day with convective showers (Moseley et al., Nature Geosci., 2016). The simulations show that the convective cells are subjected to a gradual self-organization over the day, forming larger cell clusters and more intense precipitation. Further, by tracking rain cells, we find that cells that collide with other cells during their lifetime have a different response to changes in the environmental conditions, such as an increase in temperature, than cells that do not interact. Whereas the non-interacting cells remain almost unaffected by the boundary conditions, the colliding cells show a strong invigoration. Interestingly, granting more time for the self-organization to occur has a similar effect as increasing the temperature. We therefore speculate that self-organization is a key element to explain the strong response of convective extremes to increasing temperature. Our results suggest that proper modeling and predicting of convective extremes requires the description of the interaction between convective clouds.

Neutral Evolution and Dispersal Limitation Produce Biogeographic Patterns in Microcystis aeruginosa Populations of Lake Systems.

PubMed

Shirani, Sahar; Hellweger, Ferdi L

2017-08-01

Molecular observations reveal substantial biogeographic patterns of cyanobacteria within systems of connected lakes. An important question is the relative role of environmental selection and neutral processes in the biogeography of these systems. Here, we quantify the effect of genetic drift and dispersal limitation by simulating individual cyanobacteria cells using an agent-based model (ABM). In the model, cells grow (divide), die, and migrate between lakes. Each cell has a full genome that is subject to neutral mutation (i.e., the growth rate is independent of the genome). The model is verified by simulating simplified lake systems, for which theoretical solutions are available. Then, it is used to simulate the biogeography of the cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa in a number of real systems, including the Great Lakes, Klamath River, Yahara River, and Chattahoochee River. Model output is analyzed using standard bioinformatics tools (BLAST, MAFFT). The emergent patterns of nucleotide divergence between lakes are dynamic, including gradual increases due to accumulation of mutations and abrupt changes due to population takeovers by migrant cells (coalescence events). The model predicted nucleotide divergence is heterogeneous within systems, and for weakly connected lakes, it can be substantial. For example, Lakes Superior and Michigan are predicted to have an average genomic nucleotide divergence of 8200 bp or 0.14%. The divergence between more strongly connected lakes is much lower. Our results provide a quantitative baseline for future biogeography studies. They show that dispersal limitation can be an important factor in microbe biogeography, which is contrary to the common belief, and could affect how a system responds to environmental change.

Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santos, Mario, E-mail: mgsantoss@gmail.com; Freitas, Raul, E-mail: raulfreitas@portugalmail.com; Crespi, Antonio L., E-mail: aluis.crespi@gmail.com

2011-10-15

This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasingmore » populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: {yields} Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. {yields} Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. {yields} Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.{yields} Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.{yields} Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.« less

Modelling crop yield, soil organic C and P under variable long-term fertilizer management in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jie; Xu, Guang; Xu, Minggang; Balkovič, Juraj; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Wang, Jinzhou; Yu, Chaoqing

2016-04-01

Phosphorus (P) is a major limiting nutrient for plant growth. P, as a nonrenewable resource and the controlling factor of aquatic entrophication, is critical for food security and human future, and concerns sustainable resource use and environmental impacts. It is thus essential to find an integrated and effective approach to optimize phosphorus fertilizer application in the agro-ecosystem while maintaining crop yield and minimizing environmental risk. Crop P models have been used to simulate plant-soil interactions but are rarely validated with scattered long-term fertilizer control field experiments. We employed a process-based model named Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model (EPIC) to simulate grain yield, soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil available P based upon 8 field experiments in China with 11 years dataset, representing the typical Chinese soil types and agro-ecosystems of different regions. 4 treatments, including N, P, and K fertilizer (NPK), no fertilizer (CK), N and K fertilizer (NK) and N, P, K and manure (NPKM) were measured and modelled. A series of sensitivity tests were conducted to analyze the sensitivity of grain yields and soil available P to sequential fertilizer rates in typical humid, normal and drought years. Our results indicated that the EPIC model showed a significant agreement for simulating grain yields with R2=0.72, index of agreement (d)=0.87, modeling efficiency (EF)=0.68, p<0.01 and SOC with R2=0.70, d=0.86, EF=0.59, and p<0.01. EPIC can well simulate soil available P moderately and capture the temporal changes in soil P reservoirs. Both of Crop yields and soil available were found more sensitive to the fertilizer P rates in humid than drought year and soil available P is closely linked to concentrated rainfall. This study concludes that EPIC model has great potential to simulate the P cycle in croplands in China and can explore the optimum management practices.

Simulating indoor concentrations of NO(2) and PM(2.5) in multifamily housing for use in health-based intervention modeling.

PubMed

Fabian, P; Adamkiewicz, G; Levy, J I

2012-02-01

Residents of low-income multifamily housing can have elevated exposures to multiple environmental pollutants known to influence asthma. Simulation models can characterize the health implications of changing indoor concentrations, but quantifying the influence of interventions on concentrations is challenging given complex airflow and source characteristics. In this study, we simulated concentrations in a prototype multifamily building using CONTAM, a multizone airflow and contaminant transport program. Contaminants modeled included PM(2.5) and NO(2) , and parameters included stove use, presence and operability of exhaust fans, smoking, unit level, and building leakiness. We developed regression models to explain variability in CONTAM outputs for individual sources, in a manner that could be utilized in simulation modeling of health outcomes. To evaluate our models, we generated a database of 1000 simulated households with characteristics consistent with Boston public housing developments and residents and compared the predicted levels of NO(2) and PM(2.5) and their correlates with the literature. Our analyses demonstrated that CONTAM outputs could be readily explained by available parameters (R(2) between 0.89 and 0.98 across models), but that one-compartment box models would mischaracterize concentrations and source contributions. Our study quantifies the key drivers for indoor concentrations in multifamily housing and helps to identify opportunities for interventions. Many low-income urban asthmatics live in multifamily housing that may be amenable to ventilation-related interventions such as weatherization or air sealing, wall and ceiling hole repairs, and exhaust fan installation or repair, but such interventions must be designed carefully given their cost and their offsetting effects on energy savings as well as indoor and outdoor pollutants. We developed models to take into account the complex behavior of airflow patterns in multifamily buildings, which can be used to identify and evaluate environmental and non-environmental interventions targeting indoor air pollutants which can trigger asthma exacerbations. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Scenario simulations of future salinity and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea and adjacent North Sea areas–implications for environmental monitoring

PubMed Central

Vuorinen, Ilppo; Hänninen, Jari; Rajasilta, Marjut; Laine, Päivi; Eklund, Jan; Montesino-Pouzols, Federico; Corona, Francesco; Junker, Karin; Meier, H.E.Markus; Dippner, Joachim W.

2015-01-01

Substantial ecological changes occurred in the 1970s in the Northern Baltic during a temporary period of low salinity (S). This period was preceded by an episodic increase in the rainfall over the Baltic Sea watershed area. Several climate models, both global and regional, project an increase in the runoff of the Northern latitudes due to proceeding climate change. The aim of this study is to model, firstly, the effects on Baltic Sea salinity of increased runoff due to projected global change and, secondly, the effects of salinity change on the distribution of marine species. The results suggest a critical shift in the S range 5–7, which is a threshold for both freshwater and marine species distributions and diversity. We discuss several topics emphasizing future monitoring, modelling, and fisheries research. Environmental monitoring and modelling are investigated because the developing alternative ecosystems do not necessarily show the same relations to environment quality factors as the retiring ones. An important corollary is that the observed and modelled S changes considered together with species’ ranges indicate what may appear under a future climate. Consequences could include a shift in distribution areas of marine benthic foundation species and some 40–50 other species, affiliated to these. This change would extend over hundreds of kilometres, in the Baltic Sea and the adjacent North Sea areas. Potential cascading effects, in coastal ecology, fish ecology and fisheries would be extensive, and point out the necessity to develop further the “ecosystem approach in the environmental monitoring”. PMID:25737660

Collaborative research in cardiovascular dynamics and bone elasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

A collaborative research program covering a variety of topics of biomechanics and biomedical engineering within the fields of cardiovascular dynamics, respiration, bone elasticity and vestibular physiology is described. The goals of the research were to promote: (1) a better understanding of the mechanical behavior of the circulatory system and its control mechanisms; (2) development of noninvasive methods of measuring the changes in the mechanical properties of blood vessels and other cardiovascular parameters in man; (3) application of these noninvasive methods to examine in man the physiological effects of environmental changes, including earth-simulated gravitational changes; and (4) development of in-flight methods for studying the events which lead to post-flight postural hypotension.

Effects of changes in photoperiod and temperature on the estrous cycle of a captive female giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca).

PubMed

Tay, Trisha T N; Li, Desheng; Huang, Yan; Wang, Pengyan; Tahar, Tasha; Kawi, Josephine

2018-03-01

The female giant panda's estrus is known to be photoperiod sensitive, triggered by increasing day length. A pair of giant pandas was brought to Singapore in September 2012 and exposed to a constant temperature and photoperiod during the first 2 years. The female did not show any signs of estrus during that period. In November 2014, photoperiod and temperature were manipulated to simulate seasonal changes, to investigate the effects of environmental factors on the sexual behavior of the giant pandas. This paper documents the changes and observations carried out from 2012 to 2016, in the attempt to breed this vulnerable species. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Using Marine and Freshwater Fish Environmental Intelligence Networks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios to Evaluate the Effectiveness of the Minamata Convention on Mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bank, M. S.

2017-12-01

The Minamata Convention on Mercury was recently ratified and will go into effect on August 16, 2017. As noted in the convention text, fish are an important source of nutrition to consumers worldwide and several marine and freshwater species represent important links in the global source-receptor dynamics of methylmercury. However, despite its importance, a coordinated global program for marine and freshwater fish species using accredited laboratories, reproducible data and reliable models is still lacking. In recent years fish mercury science has evolved significantly with its use of advanced technologies and computational models to address this complex and ubiquitous environmental and public health issue. These advances in the field have made it essential that transparency be enhanced to ensure that fish mercury studies used in support of the convention are truly reproducible and scientifically sound. One primary goal of this presentation is to evaluate fish bioinformatics and methods, results and inferential reproducibility as it relates to aggregated uncertainty in mercury fish research models, science, and biomonitoring. I use models, environmental intelligence networks and simulations of the effects of a changing climate on methylmercury in marine and freshwater fish to examine how climate change and the convention itself may create further uncertainties for policymakers to consider. Lastly, I will also present an environmental intelligence framework for fish mercury bioaccumulation models and biomonitoring in support of the evaluation of the effectiveness of the Minamata Convention on Mercury.

Assessing the effects of rural livelihood transition on non-point source pollution: a coupled ABM-IECM model.

PubMed

Yuan, Chengcheng; Liu, Liming; Ye, Jinwei; Ren, Guoping; Zhuo, Dong; Qi, Xiaoxing

2017-05-01

Water pollution caused by anthropogenic activities and driven by changes in rural livelihood strategies in an agricultural system has received increasing attention in recent decades. To simulate the effects of rural household livelihood transition on non-point source (NPS) pollution, a model combining an agent-based model (ABM) and an improved export coefficient model (IECM) was developed. The ABM was adopted to simulate the dynamic process of household livelihood transition, and the IECM was employed to estimate the effects of household livelihood transition on NPS pollution. The coupled model was tested in a small catchment in the Dongting Lake region, China. The simulated results reveal that the transition of household livelihood strategies occurred with the changes in the prices of rice, pig, and labor. Thus, the cropping system, land-use intensity, resident population, and number of pigs changed in the small catchment from 2000 to 2014. As a result of these changes, the total nitrogen load discharged into the river initially increased from 6841.0 kg in 2000 to 8446.3 kg in 2004 and then decreased to 6063.9 kg in 2014. Results also suggest that rural living, livestock, paddy field, and precipitation alternately became the main causes of NPS pollution in the small catchment, and the midstream region of the small catchment was the primary area for NPS pollution from 2000 to 2014. Despite some limitations, the coupled model provides an innovative way to simulate the effects of rural household livelihood transition on NPS pollution with the change of socioeconomic factors, and thereby identify the key factors influencing water pollution to provide valuable suggestions on how agricultural environmental risks can be reduced through the regulation of the behaviors of farming households in the future.

Potential environmental drivers of a regional blue mussel mass mortality event (winter of 2014, Breton Sound, France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polsenaere, Pierre; Soletchnik, Patrick; Le Moine, Olivier; Gohin, Francis; Robert, Stéphane; Pépin, Jean-François; Stanisière, Jean-Yves; Dumas, Franck; Béchemin, Christian; Goulletquer, Philippe

2017-05-01

In the context of global change, increasing mariculture production has raised particular concerns regarding its environmental impact and sustainability. Molluscs and particularly blue mussel account for a significant part of this total production. Although blue mussels are considered to be pretty resilient to environmental disturbances, we report in this study an unprecedented mussel mortality event that occurred during the winter of 2014 in the Breton Sound. 9000 metric tonnes of mussels were lost and mortality rates up to 100% were recorded at some farming areas. Through a coupling approach, the present work aims to better understand the potential environmental drivers associated with those mortalities. Firstly, we analysed long-term in situ and satellite data from environmental monitoring networks (available since 1998) to characterize the variability of seawater masses of the sound during the winter of 2014. Secondly, we used modelling simulations to study the possible relationship between seawater hydrodynamics and observed spatio-temporal patterns of mussel mortalities. From January to April 2014 at the long-line culture site where mortalities started, seawater temperatures ranged from 8.3 to 13.3 °C (10.2 ± 0.8 °C). Salinity and turbidity values showed successive and short drops (below 16; 29.3 ± 2.3) and numerous peaks (above 70 NTU; 17.4 ± 13.4 NTU) respectively. Winter conditions of 2014 were encountered along the entire French Atlantic coastline and linked to the sixth highest positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO +) index recorded since 1865. These particular environmental variations characterized the winter of 2014 but also others whereas no comparable mussel mortality rates were reported. Exact causes of the 2014 mortality event are still unknown but we showed these environmental variations could not alone be responsible. These have likely affected the sensitivity of the blue mussel populations that were already weakened by early spawning. Meanwhile, these may have facilitated the apparition of a pathogenic strain of Vibrio splendidus isolated on moribund mussels at that time. Our modelling simulations suggested that this pathogenic strain could spread through hydrodynamic patterns and drive the observed mussel mortalities. If this pathogenic strain recurs in future years, particularly with the added stress associated with climate change, mussel mass mortality events may exceed the resilience of this species.

The basic mechanics of bipedal walking lead to asymmetric behavior.

PubMed

Gregg, Robert D; Degani, Amir; Dhaher, Yasin; Lynch, Kevin M

2011-01-01

This paper computationally investigates whether gait asymmetries can be attributed in part to basic bipedal mechanics independent of motor control. Using a symmetrical rigid-body model known as the compass-gait biped, we show that changes in environmental or physiological parameters can facilitate asymmetry in gait kinetics at fast walking speeds. In the environmental case, the asymmetric family of high-speed gaits is in fact more stable than the symmetric family of low-speed gaits. These simulations suggest that lower extremity mechanics might play a direct role in functional and pathological asymmetries reported in human walking, where velocity may be a common variable in the emergence and growth of asymmetry. © 2011 IEEE

Covariation of metabolic rates and cell size in coccolithophores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aloisi, G.

2015-08-01

Coccolithophores are sensitive recorders of environmental change. The size of their coccosphere varies in the ocean along gradients of environmental conditions and provides a key for understanding the fate of this important phytoplankton group in the future ocean. But interpreting field changes in coccosphere size in terms of laboratory observations is hard, mainly because the marine signal reflects the response of multiple morphotypes to changes in a combination of environmental variables. In this paper I examine the large corpus of published laboratory experiments with coccolithophores looking for relations between environmental conditions, metabolic rates and cell size (a proxy for coccosphere size). I show that growth, photosynthesis and, to a lesser extent, calcification covary with cell size when pCO2, irradiance, temperature, nitrate, phosphate and iron conditions change. With the exception of phosphate and temperature, a change from limiting to non-limiting conditions always results in an increase in cell size. An increase in phosphate or temperature (below the optimum temperature for growth) produces the opposite effect. The magnitude of the coccosphere-size changes observed in the laboratory is comparable to that observed in the ocean. If the biological reasons behind the environment-metabolism-size link are understood, it will be possible to use coccosphere-size changes in the modern ocean and in marine sediments to investigate the fate of coccolithophores in the future ocean. This reasoning can be extended to the size of coccoliths if, as recent experiments are starting to show, coccolith size reacts to environmental change proportionally to coccosphere size. The coccolithophore database is strongly biased in favour of experiments with the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi (E. huxleyi; 82 % of database entries), and more experiments with other species are needed to understand whether these observations can be extended to coccolithophores in general. I introduce a simple model that simulates the growth rate and the size of cells forced by nitrate and phosphate concentrations. By considering a simple rule that allocates the energy flow from nutrient acquisition to cell structure (biomass) and cell maturity (biological complexity, eventually leading to cell division), the model is able to reproduce the covariation of growth rate and cell size observed in laboratory experiments with E. huxleyi when these nutrients become limiting. These results support ongoing efforts to interpret coccosphere and coccolith size measurements in the context of climate change.

How Children Solve Environmental Problems: Using Computer Simulations To Investigate Systems Thinking.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sheehy, N. P.; Wylie, J. W.; McGuinness, C.; Orchard, G.

2000-01-01

Describes the development and use of two computer simulations for investigating systems thinking and environmental problem-solving in children (n=92). Finds that older children outperformed younger children, who tended to exhibit magical thinking. Suggests that seemingly isomorphic environmental problems may not be interpreted as such by children.…

The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fer, Istem; Tietjen, Britta; Jeltsch, Florian; Wolff, Christian

2017-09-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.

Fractal Landscape Algorithms for Environmental Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, H.; Moran, S.

2014-12-01

Natural science and geographical research are now able to take advantage of environmental simulations that more accurately test experimental hypotheses, resulting in deeper understanding. Experiments affected by the natural environment can benefit from 3D landscape simulations capable of simulating a variety of terrains and environmental phenomena. Such simulations can employ random terrain generation algorithms that dynamically simulate environments to test specific models against a variety of factors. Through the use of noise functions such as Perlin noise, Simplex noise, and diamond square algorithms, computers can generate simulations that model a variety of landscapes and ecosystems. This study shows how these algorithms work together to create realistic landscapes. By seeding values into the diamond square algorithm, one can control the shape of landscape. Perlin noise and Simplex noise are also used to simulate moisture and temperature. The smooth gradient created by coherent noise allows more realistic landscapes to be simulated. Terrain generation algorithms can be used in environmental studies and physics simulations. Potential studies that would benefit from simulations include the geophysical impact of flash floods or drought on a particular region and regional impacts on low lying area due to global warming and rising sea levels. Furthermore, terrain generation algorithms also serve as aesthetic tools to display landscapes (Google Earth), and simulate planetary landscapes. Hence, it can be used as a tool to assist science education. Algorithms used to generate these natural phenomena provide scientists a different approach in analyzing our world. The random algorithms used in terrain generation not only contribute to the generating the terrains themselves, but are also capable of simulating weather patterns.

Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies.

PubMed

Mathison, Camilla; Wiltshire, Andrew; Dimri, A P; Falloon, Pete; Jacob, Daniela; Kumar, Pankaj; Moors, Eddy; Ridley, Jeff; Siderius, Christian; Stoffel, Markus; Yasunari, T

2013-12-01

Adaptation is increasingly important for regions around the world where large changes in climate could have an impact on populations and industry. The Brahmaputra-Ganges catchments have a large population, a main industry of agriculture and a growing hydro-power industry, making the region susceptible to changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon, annually the main water source. The HighNoon project has completed four regional climate model simulations for India and the Himalaya at high resolution (25km) from 1960 to 2100 to provide an ensemble of simulations for the region. In this paper we have assessed the ensemble for these catchments, comparing the simulations with observations, to give credence that the simulations provide a realistic representation of atmospheric processes and therefore future climate. We have illustrated how these simulations could be used to provide information on potential future climate impacts and therefore aid decision-making using climatology and threshold analysis. The ensemble analysis shows an increase in temperature between the baseline (1970-2000) and the 2050s (2040-2070) of between 2 and 4°C and an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures above 28°C and 35°C. There is less certainty for precipitation and runoff which show considerable variability, even in this relatively small ensemble, spanning zero. The HighNoon ensemble is the most complete data for the region providing useful information on a wide range of variables for the regional climate of the Brahmaputra-Ganges region, however there are processes not yet included in the models that could have an impact on the simulations of future climate. We have discussed these processes and show that the range from the HighNoon ensemble is similar in magnitude to potential changes in projections where these processes are included. Therefore strategies for adaptation must be robust and flexible allowing for advances in the science and natural environmental changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aviation NOx-induced CH4 effect: Fixed mixing ratio boundary conditions versus flux boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodayari, Arezoo; Olsen, Seth C.; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Phoenix, Daniel B.

2015-07-01

Atmospheric chemistry-climate models are often used to calculate the effect of aviation NOx emissions on atmospheric ozone (O3) and methane (CH4). Due to the long (∼10 yr) atmospheric lifetime of methane, model simulations must be run for long time periods, typically for more than 40 simulation years, to reach steady-state if using CH4 emission fluxes. Because of the computational expense of such long runs, studies have traditionally used specified CH4 mixing ratio lower boundary conditions (BCs) and then applied a simple parameterization based on the change in CH4 lifetime between the control and NOx-perturbed simulations to estimate the change in CH4 concentration induced by NOx emissions. In this parameterization a feedback factor (typically a value of 1.4) is used to account for the feedback of CH4 concentrations on its lifetime. Modeling studies comparing simulations using CH4 surface fluxes and fixed mixing ratio BCs are used to examine the validity of this parameterization. The latest version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), with the CAM5 atmospheric model, was used for this study. Aviation NOx emissions for 2006 were obtained from the AEDT (Aviation Environmental Design Tool) global commercial aircraft emissions. Results show a 31.4 ppb change in CH4 concentration when estimated using the parameterization and a 1.4 feedback factor, and a 28.9 ppb change when the concentration was directly calculated in the CH4 flux simulations. The model calculated value for CH4 feedback on its own lifetime agrees well with the 1.4 feedback factor. Systematic comparisons between the separate runs indicated that the parameterization technique overestimates the CH4 concentration by 8.6%. Therefore, it is concluded that the estimation technique is good to within ∼10% and decreases the computational requirements in our simulations by nearly a factor of 8.

Brownfield Action: An Integrated Environmental Science Simulation Experience for Undergraduates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelsey, Ryan

This paper presents the results of three years of development and evaluation of a CD-ROM/Web hybrid simulation known as Brownfield Action for an introductory environmental science course at an independent college for women in the northeastern United States. Brownfield Action is a simulation that provides a learning environment for developing the…

Estimates of Tropical C4 and C3 Savannah Vegetation Changes during the Holocene from Paleodata and Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khon, V. C.; Wang, Y.; Krebs-Kanzow, U.; Schneider, R. R.; Schneider, B.

2013-12-01

The Savannah vegetation in Southern tropical Africa, which is characterized by co-dominance of grassland and woodland savannah, has a vast importance for global primary production. The mechanisms controlling tree-grass coexistence and the relative roles of environmental factors that determine the tree-grass proportion are not fully understood. The purpose of our study is to estimate the relative contributions of changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 to the evolution of the C3/C4 vegetation balance in the past. We use the BIOME4 vegetation model to estimate the sensitivity of the relative abundance of C4 vegetation to changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2. The BIOME4 model is forced by temperature and precipitation anomalies from simulations of the Holocene period with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Precipitation reconstructed from dD of leaf wax material obtained from a marine sediment core demonstrates a tendency towards drier conditions over the Zambezi catchment area during the early Holocene. This agrees well with results of the KCM simulations forced by changes in orbital parameters. The simulations of BIOME4 forced by reduced rainfall in combination with the lower level of atmospheric CO2 (without temperature change) show an enhancement of the C4 vegetation abundance. However, the estimates of reconstructed C4/C3 vegetation ratio for the Zambezi basin retrieved from d13C of sedimentary leaf wax do not indicate a substantial trend over the last 10 000 years. We find that the growth of the C4 vegetation ratio could have been significantly attenuated by the (simulated) temperature decrease, especially during the growing season. The latter is caused by a decline in local summer insolation together with the effect of negative radiative forcing due to lower concentrations of greenhouse gases during the early Holocene.

Dynamic energy budget model: a monitoring tool for growth and reproduction performance of Mytilus galloprovincialis in Bizerte Lagoon (Southwestern Mediterranean Sea).

PubMed

Béjaoui-Omri, Amel; Béjaoui, Béchir; Harzallah, Ali; Aloui-Béjaoui, Nejla; El Bour, Monia; Aleya, Lotfi

2014-11-01

Mussel farming is the main economic activity in Bizerte Lagoon, with a production that fluctuates depending on environmental factors. In the present study, we apply a bioenergetic growth model to the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis, based on dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory which describes energy flux variation through the different compartments of the mussel body. Thus, the present model simulates both mussel growth and sexual cycle steps according to food availability and water temperature and also the effect of climate change on mussel behavior and reproduction. The results point to good concordance between simulations and growth parameters (metric length and weight) for mussels in the lagoon. A heat wave scenario was also simulated using the DEB model, which highlighted mussel mortality periods during a period of high temperature.

Variation in the sensitivity of organismal body temperature to climate change over local and geographic scales.

PubMed

Gilman, Sarah E; Wethey, David S; Helmuth, Brian

2006-06-20

Global climate change is expected to have broad ecological consequences for species and communities. Attempts to forecast these consequences usually assume that changes in air or water temperature will translate into equivalent changes in a species' organismal body temperature. This simple change is unlikely because an organism's body temperature is determined by a complex series of interactions between the organism and its environment. Using a biophysical model, validated with 5 years of field observations, we examined the relationship between environmental temperature change and body temperature of the intertidal mussel Mytilus californianus over 1,600 km of its geographic distribution. We found that at all locations examined simulated changes in air or water temperature always produced less than equivalent changes in the daily maximum mussel body temperature. Moreover, the magnitude of body temperature change was highly variable, both within and among locations. A simulated 1 degrees C increase in air or water temperature raised the maximum monthly average of daily body temperature maxima by 0.07-0.92 degrees C, depending on the geographic location, vertical position, and temperature variable. We combined these sensitivities with predicted climate change for 2100 and calculated increases in monthly average maximum body temperature of 0.97-4.12 degrees C, depending on location and climate change scenario. Thus geographic variation in body temperature sensitivity can modulate species' experiences of climate change and must be considered when predicting the biological consequences of climate change.

Vibration-based structural health monitoring using adaptive statistical method under varying environmental condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Seung-Seop; Jung, Hyung-Jo

2014-03-01

It is well known that the dynamic properties of a structure such as natural frequencies depend not only on damage but also on environmental condition (e.g., temperature). The variation in dynamic characteristics of a structure due to environmental condition may mask damage of the structure. Without taking the change of environmental condition into account, false-positive or false-negative damage diagnosis may occur so that structural health monitoring becomes unreliable. In order to address this problem, an approach to construct a regression model based on structural responses considering environmental factors has been usually used by many researchers. The key to success of this approach is the formulation between the input and output variables of the regression model to take into account the environmental variations. However, it is quite challenging to determine proper environmental variables and measurement locations in advance for fully representing the relationship between the structural responses and the environmental variations. One alternative (i.e., novelty detection) is to remove the variations caused by environmental factors from the structural responses by using multivariate statistical analysis (e.g., principal component analysis (PCA), factor analysis, etc.). The success of this method is deeply depending on the accuracy of the description of normal condition. Generally, there is no prior information on normal condition during data acquisition, so that the normal condition is determined by subjective perspective with human-intervention. The proposed method is a novel adaptive multivariate statistical analysis for monitoring of structural damage detection under environmental change. One advantage of this method is the ability of a generative learning to capture the intrinsic characteristics of the normal condition. The proposed method is tested on numerically simulated data for a range of noise in measurement under environmental variation. A comparative study with conventional methods (i.e., fixed reference scheme) demonstrates the superior performance of the proposed method for structural damage detection.

Modeling the reflectance of the lunar regolith by a new method combining Monte Carlo Ray tracing and Hapke's model with application to Chang'E-1 IIM data.

PubMed

Wong, Un-Hong; Wu, Yunzhao; Wong, Hon-Cheng; Liang, Yanyan; Tang, Zesheng

2014-01-01

In this paper, we model the reflectance of the lunar regolith by a new method combining Monte Carlo ray tracing and Hapke's model. The existing modeling methods exploit either a radiative transfer model or a geometric optical model. However, the measured data from an Interference Imaging spectrometer (IIM) on an orbiter were affected not only by the composition of minerals but also by the environmental factors. These factors cannot be well addressed by a single model alone. Our method implemented Monte Carlo ray tracing for simulating the large-scale effects such as the reflection of topography of the lunar soil and Hapke's model for calculating the reflection intensity of the internal scattering effects of particles of the lunar soil. Therefore, both the large-scale and microscale effects are considered in our method, providing a more accurate modeling of the reflectance of the lunar regolith. Simulation results using the Lunar Soil Characterization Consortium (LSCC) data and Chang'E-1 elevation map show that our method is effective and useful. We have also applied our method to Chang'E-1 IIM data for removing the influence of lunar topography to the reflectance of the lunar soil and to generate more realistic visualizations of the lunar surface.

A Model Based on Environmental Factors for Diameter Distribution in Black Wattle in Brazil

PubMed Central

Sanquetta, Carlos Roberto; Behling, Alexandre; Dalla Corte, Ana Paula; Péllico Netto, Sylvio; Rodrigues, Aurelio Lourenço; Simon, Augusto Arlindo

2014-01-01

This article discusses the dynamics of a diameter distribution in stands of black wattle throughout its growth cycle using the Weibull probability density function. Moreover, the parameters of this distribution were related to environmental variables from meteorological data and surface soil horizon with the aim of finding a model for diameter distribution which their coefficients were related to the environmental variables. We found that the diameter distribution of the stand changes only slightly over time and that the estimators of the Weibull function are correlated with various environmental variables, with accumulated rainfall foremost among them. Thus, a model was obtained in which the estimators of the Weibull function are dependent on rainfall. Such a function can have important applications, such as in simulating growth potential in regions where historical growth data is lacking, as well as the behavior of the stand under different environmental conditions. The model can also be used to project growth in diameter, based on the rainfall affecting the forest over a certain time period. PMID:24932909

Quantifying the combined effects of land use and climate changes on stream flow and nutrient loads: A modelling approach in the Odense Fjord catchment (Denmark).

PubMed

Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Andersen, Hans E; Nielsen, Anders; Thodsen, Hans; Trolle, Dennis

2018-04-15

Water pollution and water scarcity are among the main environmental challenges faced by the European Union, and multiple stressors compromise the integrity of water resources and ecosystems. Particularly in lowland areas of northern Europe, high population density, flood protection and, especially, intensive agriculture, are important drivers of water quality degradation. In addition, future climate and land use changes may interact, with uncertain consequences for water resources. Modelling approaches have become essential to address water issues and to evaluate ecosystem management. In this work, three multi-stressor future storylines combining climatic and socio-economic changes, defined at European level, have been downscaled for the Odense Fjord catchment (Denmark), giving three scenarios: High-Tech agriculture (HT), Agriculture for Nature (AN) and Market-Driven agriculture (MD). The impacts of these scenarios on water discharge and inorganic and organic nutrient loads to the streams have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The results revealed that the scenario-specific climate inputs were most important when simulating hydrology, increasing river discharge in the HT and MD scenarios (which followed the high emission 8.5 representative concentration pathway, RCP), while remaining stable in the AN scenario (RCP 4.5). Moreover, discharge was the main driver of changes in organic nutrients and inorganic phosphorus loads that consequently increased in a high emission scenario. Nevertheless, both land use (via inputs of fertilizer) and climate changes affected the nitrate transport. Different levels of fertilization yielded a decrease in the nitrate load in AN and an increase in MD. In HT, however, nitrate losses remained stable because the fertilization decrease was counteracted by a flow increase. Thus, our results suggest that N loads will ultimately depend on future land use and management in an interaction with climate changes, and this knowledge is of utmost importance for the achievement of European environmental policy goals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of simulated acid rain on soil fauna community composition and their ecological niches.

PubMed

Wei, Hui; Liu, Wen; Zhang, Jiaen; Qin, Zhong

2017-01-01

Acid rain is one of the severest environmental issues globally. Relative to other global changes (e.g., warming, elevated atmospheric [CO 2 ], and nitrogen deposition), however, acid rain has received less attention than its due. Soil fauna play important roles in multiple ecological processes, but how soil fauna community responds to acid rain remains less studied. This microcosm experiment was conducted using latosol with simulated acid rain (SAR) manipulations to observe potential changes in soil fauna community under acid rain stress. Four pH levels, i.e., pH 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, and 5.5, and a neutral control of pH 7.0 were set according to the current pH condition and acidification trend of precipitation in southern China. As expected, we observed that the SAR treatments induced changes in soil fauna community composition and their ecological niches in the tested soil; the treatment effects tended to increase as acidity increased. This could be attributable to the environmental stresses (such as acidity, porosity and oxygen supply) induced by the SAR treatments. In addition to direct acidity effect, we propose that potential changes in permeability and movability of water and oxygen in soils induced by acid rain could also give rise to the observed shifts in soil fauna community composition. These are most likely indirect pathways of acid rain to affect belowground community. Moreover, we found that nematodes, the dominating soil fauna group in this study, moved downwards to mitigate the stress of acid rain. This is probably detrimental to soil fauna in the long term, due to the relatively severer soil conditions in the deep than surface soil layer. Our results suggest that acid rain could change soil fauna community and the vertical distribution of soil fauna groups, consequently changing the underground ecosystem functions such as organic matter decomposition and greenhouse gas emissions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FISHER'S GEOMETRIC MODEL WITH A MOVING OPTIMUM

PubMed Central

Matuszewski, Sebastian; Hermisson, Joachim; Kopp, Michael

2014-01-01

Fisher's geometric model has been widely used to study the effects of pleiotropy and organismic complexity on phenotypic adaptation. Here, we study a version of Fisher's model in which a population adapts to a gradually moving optimum. Key parameters are the rate of environmental change, the dimensionality of phenotype space, and the patterns of mutational and selectional correlations. We focus on the distribution of adaptive substitutions, that is, the multivariate distribution of the phenotypic effects of fixed beneficial mutations. Our main results are based on an “adaptive-walk approximation,” which is checked against individual-based simulations. We find that (1) the distribution of adaptive substitutions is strongly affected by the ecological dynamics and largely depends on a single composite parameter γ, which scales the rate of environmental change by the “adaptive potential” of the population; (2) the distribution of adaptive substitution reflects the shape of the fitness landscape if the environment changes slowly, whereas it mirrors the distribution of new mutations if the environment changes fast; (3) in contrast to classical models of adaptation assuming a constant optimum, with a moving optimum, more complex organisms evolve via larger adaptive steps. PMID:24898080

The Use of Input-Output Control System Analysis for Sustainable Development of Multivariable Environmental Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koliopoulos, T. C.; Koliopoulou, G.

2007-10-01

We present an input-output solution for simulating the associated behavior and optimized physical needs of an environmental system. The simulations and numerical analysis determined the accurate boundary loads and areas that were required to interact for the proper physical operation of a complicated environmental system. A case study was conducted to simulate the optimum balance of an environmental system based on an artificial intelligent multi-interacting input-output numerical scheme. The numerical results were focused on probable further environmental management techniques, with the objective of minimizing any risks and associated environmental impact to protect the quality of public health and the environment. Our conclusions allowed us to minimize the associated risks, focusing on probable cases in an emergency to protect the surrounded anthropogenic or natural environment. Therefore, the lining magnitude could be determined for any useful associated technical works to support the environmental system under examination, taking into account its particular boundary necessities and constraints.

Next Steps Toward Understanding Human Habitation of Space: Environmental Impacts and Mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Globus, Ruth

2016-01-01

Entry into low earth orbit and beyond causes profound shifts in environmental conditions that have the potential to influence human productivity, long term health, and even survival. We now have evidence that microgravity, radiation and/or confinement in space can lead to demonstrably detrimental changes in the cardiovascular (e.g. vessel function, orthostatic intolerance), musculoskeletal (muscle atrophy, bone loss) and nervous (eye, neurovestibular) systems of astronauts. Because of both the limited number of astronauts who have flown (especially females) and the high degree of individual variability in the human population, important unanswered questions about responses to the space environment remain: What are the sex differences with respect to specific physiological systems? Are the responses age-dependent and/or reversible after return to Earth? Do observed detrimental changes that resemble accelerated aging progress continuously over time or plateau? What are the mechanisms of the biological responses? Answering these important questions certainly demands a multi-pronged approach, and the study of multicellular model organisms (such as rodents and flies) already has provided opportunities for exploring those questions in some detail. Recent long duration spaceflight experiments with rodents show that mice in space provide a mammalian model that uniquely combines the influence of reduced gravitational loading with increased physical activity. In addition, multiple investigators have shown that ground-based models that simulate aspects of spaceflight (including rodent hind limb unloading to mimic weightlessness and exposure to ionizing radiation), cause various transient and persistent detrimental consequences in multiple physiological systems. In general, we have found that adverse skeletal effects of simulated weightlessness and space radiation when combined, can be quantitatively, if not qualitatively, different from the influence of each environmental factor alone implying at least some shared underlying mechanisms. Thus, both ground based and spaceflight research utilizing model organisms provide the opportunity to better understand environmental factors and biological mechanisms that contribute to human health and survival in space.

EDITORIAL: Integrated assessments of environmental change on the Tibetan Plateau Integrated assessments of environmental change on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Yongwei; Yao, Tandong

2009-12-01

The Tibetan Plateau is one of the Earth's most sensitive regions in responding to climate change due to its extremely high altitude and the presence of permafrost and glaciers. The cryosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere of the plateau have been undergoing significant changes. Due to the low human population density, environmental changes on the plateau are largely driven by natural processes. Thus, the plateau provides a unique and comprehensive site for global change studies. This focus issue on Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau aims to address both paleo and recent environmental changes across the plateau to facilitate our understanding of this remote and under-studied area. We invited a wide spectrum of contributions to address climate change, permafrost degradation, glacier/snow/ice dynamics, lake dynamics, land- cover/land-use changes, and their interactions on the plateau. Collectively, the diverse contributions in this special issue are expected to present the recent advancement of the above topics and beyond. See the PDF for the full text of the editorial. Focus on Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau Contents Does a weekend effect in diurnal temperature range exist in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau? Qinglong You, Shichang Kang, Wolfgang-Albert Flügel, Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo, Yuping Yan, Yanwei Xu and Jie Huang Diurnal variations of summertime precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau in relation to orographically-induced regional circulations Xiaodong Liu, Aijuan Bai and Changhai Liu Lake-level fluctuations since the Last Glaciation in Selin Co (lake), Central Tibet, investigated using optically stimulated luminescence dating of beach ridges Dewen Li, Yingkui Li, Baoqi Ma, Guocheng Dong, Liqiang Wang and Junxiang Zhao Recent changes in Imja Glacial Lake and its damming moraine in the Nepal Himalaya revealed by in situ surveys and multi-temporal ASTER imagery Koji Fujita, Akiko Sakai, Takayuki Nuimura, Satoru Yamaguchi and Rishi R Sharma Changes in frozen ground in the Source Area of the Yellow River on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China, and their eco-environmental impacts Huijun Jin, Ruixia He, Guodong Cheng, Qingbai Wu, Shaoling Wang, Lanzhi Lü and Xiaoli Chang A shallow ice core re-drilled on the Dunde Ice Cap, western China: recent changes in the Asian high mountains Nozomu Takeuchi, Takayuki Miyake, Fumio Nakazawa, Hideki Narita, Koji Fujita, Akiko Sakai, Masayoshi Nakawo, Yoshiyuki Fujii, Keqin Duan and Tandong Yao Review of climate and cryospheric change in the Tibetan Plateau Shichang Kang, Yanwei Xu, Qinglong You, Wolfgang-Albert Flügel, Nick Pepin and Tandong Yao Simulated impacts of land cover change on summer climate in the Tibetan Plateau Qian Li and Yongkang Xue

Evolutionary online behaviour learning and adaptation in real robots.

PubMed

Silva, Fernando; Correia, Luís; Christensen, Anders Lyhne

2017-07-01

Online evolution of behavioural control on real robots is an open-ended approach to autonomous learning and adaptation: robots have the potential to automatically learn new tasks and to adapt to changes in environmental conditions, or to failures in sensors and/or actuators. However, studies have so far almost exclusively been carried out in simulation because evolution in real hardware has required several days or weeks to produce capable robots. In this article, we successfully evolve neural network-based controllers in real robotic hardware to solve two single-robot tasks and one collective robotics task. Controllers are evolved either from random solutions or from solutions pre-evolved in simulation. In all cases, capable solutions are found in a timely manner (1 h or less). Results show that more accurate simulations may lead to higher-performing controllers, and that completing the optimization process in real robots is meaningful, even if solutions found in simulation differ from solutions in reality. We furthermore demonstrate for the first time the adaptive capabilities of online evolution in real robotic hardware, including robots able to overcome faults injected in the motors of multiple units simultaneously, and to modify their behaviour in response to changes in the task requirements. We conclude by assessing the contribution of each algorithmic component on the performance of the underlying evolutionary algorithm.

A Molecular Dynamics-Quantum Mechanics Theoretical Study of DNA-Mediated Charge Transport in Hydrated Ionic Liquids.

PubMed

Meng, Zhenyu; Kubar, Tomas; Mu, Yuguang; Shao, Fangwei

2018-05-08

Charge transport (CT) through biomolecules is of high significance in the research fields of biology, nanotechnology, and molecular devices. Inspired by our previous work that showed the binding of ionic liquid (IL) facilitated charge transport in duplex DNA, in silico simulation is a useful means to understand the microscopic mechanism of the facilitation phenomenon. Here molecular dynamics simulations (MD) of duplex DNA in water and hydrated ionic liquids were employed to explore the helical parameters. Principal component analysis was further applied to capture the subtle conformational changes of helical DNA upon different environmental impacts. Sequentially, CT rates were calculated by a QM/MM simulation of the flickering resonance model based upon MD trajectories. Herein, MD simulation illustrated that the binding of ionic liquids can restrain dynamic conformation and lower the on-site energy of the DNA base. Confined movement among the adjacent base pairs was highly related to the increase of electronic coupling among base pairs, which may lead DNA to a CT facilitated state. Sequentially combining MD and QM/MM analysis, the rational correlations among the binding modes, the conformational changes, and CT rates illustrated the facilitation effects from hydrated IL on DNA CT and supported a conformational-gating mechanism.

Comparison of the Current Center of Site Annual Neshap Dose Modeling at the Savannah River Site with Other Assessment Methods.

PubMed

Minter, Kelsey M; Jannik, G Timothy; Stagich, Brooke H; Dixon, Kenneth L; Newton, Joseph R

2018-04-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires the use of the model CAP88 to estimate the total effective dose (TED) to an offsite maximally exposed individual (MEI) for demonstrating compliance with 40 CFR 61, Subpart H: The National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) regulations. For NESHAP compliance at the Savannah River Site (SRS), the EPA, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), South Carolina's Department of Health and Environmental Control, and SRS approved a dose assessment method in 1991 that models all radiological emissions as if originating from a generalized center of site (COS) location at two allowable stack heights (0 m and 61 m). However, due to changes in SRS missions, radiological emissions are no longer evenly distributed about the COS. An area-specific simulation of the 2015 SRS radiological airborne emissions was conducted to compare to the current COS method. The results produced a slightly higher dose estimate (2.97 × 10 mSv vs. 2.22 × 10 mSv), marginally changed the overall MEI location, and noted that H-Area tritium emissions dominated the dose. Thus, an H-Area dose model was executed as a potential simplification of the area-specific simulation by adopting the COS methodology and modeling all site emissions from a single location in H-Area using six stack heights that reference stacks specific to the tritium production facilities within H-Area. This "H-Area Tritium Stacks" method produced a small increase in TED estimates (3.03 × 10 mSv vs. 2.97 × 10 mSv) when compared to the area-specific simulation. This suggests that the current COS method is still appropriate for demonstrating compliance with NESHAP regulations but that changing to the H-Area Tritium Stacks assessment method may now be a more appropriate representation of operations at SRS.

Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Oak pollen season length for moderate (RCP4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) are estimated through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts associated with 1994-2010 average oak pollen concentrations and simulated future oak pollen season length changes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE), driven by epidemiologically-derived concentration-response relationships. Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the U.S., potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We developed a proof-of-concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. associated with present-day and climate-induced changes in oak pollen.

Preparing the EPIC Model for Evaluating Bioenergy Production Systems: A Test of the Denitrification Submodel using a Long-Term Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manowitz, D. H.; Schwab, D. E.; Izaurralde, R. C.

2010-12-01

As bioenergy production continues to increase, it is important to be able to predict not only the crop yields that are expected from future production, but also the various environmental impacts that will accompany it. Therefore, models that can be used to make such predictions must be validated against as many of these agricultural outputs as possible. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model is a widely used and tested model for simulating many agricultural ecosystem processes including plant growth, crop yield, carbon and nutrient cycling, wind and water erosion, runoff, leaching, as well as changes in soil physical and chemical properties. This model has undergone many improvements, including the addition of a process-based denitrification submodel. Here we evaluate the performance of EPIC in its ability to simulate nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes and related variables as observed in selected treatments of the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) cropping systems study at Kellogg Biological Station (KBS). We will provide a brief description of the EPIC model in the context of bioenergy production, describe the denitrification submodel, and compare simulated and observed values of crop yields, N2O emissions, soil carbon dynamics, and soil moisture.

Biodiversity and ecosystem stability across scales in metacommunities

PubMed Central

Wang, Shaopeng; Loreau, Michel

2016-01-01

Although diversity-stability relationships have been extensively studied in local ecosystems, the global biodiversity crisis calls for an improved understanding of these relationships in a spatial context. Here we use a dynamical model of competitive metacommunities to study the relationships between species diversity and ecosystem variability across scales. We derive analytic relationships under a limiting case; these results are extended to more general cases with numerical simulations. Our model shows that, while alpha diversity decreases local ecosystem variability, beta diversity generally contributes to increasing spatial asynchrony among local ecosystems. Consequently, both alpha and beta diversity provide stabilizing effects for regional ecosystems, through local and spatial insurance effects, respectively. We further show that at the regional scale, the stabilizing effect of biodiversity increases as spatial environmental correlation increases. Our findings have important implications for understanding the interactive effects of global environmental changes (e.g. environmental homogenization) and biodiversity loss on ecosystem sustainability at large scales. PMID:26918536

Consideration of species community composition in statistical ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Diseases are increasing in marine ecosystems, and these increases have been attributed to a number of environmental factors including climate change, pollution, and overfishing. However, many studies pool disease prevalence into taxonomic groups, disregarding host species composition when comparing sites or assessing environmental impacts on patterns of disease presence. We used simulated data under a known environmental effect to assess the ability of standard statistical methods (binomial and linear regression, ANOVA) to detect a significant environmental effect on pooled disease prevalence with varying species abundance distributions and relative susceptibilities to disease. When one species was more susceptible to a disease and both species only partially overlapped in their distributions, models tended to produce a greater number of false positives (Type I error). Differences in disease risk between regions or along an environmental gradient tended to be underestimated, or even in the wrong direction, when highly susceptible taxa had reduced abundances in impacted sites, a situation likely to be common in nature. Including relative abundance as an additional variable in regressions improved model accuracy, but tended to be conservative, producing more false negatives (Type II error) when species abundance was strongly correlated with the environmental effect. Investigators should be cautious of underlying assumptions of species similarity in susceptib

IBSEM: An Individual-Based Atlantic Salmon Population Model

PubMed Central

Castellani, Marco; Heino, Mikko; Gilbey, John; Araki, Hitoshi; Svåsand, Terje; Glover, Kevin A.

2015-01-01

Ecology and genetics can influence the fate of individuals and populations in multiple ways. However, to date, few studies consider them when modelling the evolutionary trajectory of populations faced with admixture with non-local populations. For the Atlantic salmon, a model incorporating these elements is urgently needed because many populations are challenged with gene-flow from non-local and domesticated conspecifics. We developed an Individual-Based Salmon Eco-genetic Model (IBSEM) to simulate the demographic and population genetic change of an Atlantic salmon population through its entire life-cycle. Processes such as growth, mortality, and maturation are simulated through stochastic procedures, which take into account environmental variables as well as the genotype of the individuals. IBSEM is based upon detailed empirical data from salmon biology, and parameterized to reproduce the environmental conditions and the characteristics of a wild population inhabiting a Norwegian river. Simulations demonstrated that the model consistently and reliably reproduces the characteristics of the population. Moreover, in absence of farmed escapees, the modelled populations reach an evolutionary equilibrium that is similar to our definition of a ‘wild’ genotype. We assessed the sensitivity of the model in the face of assumptions made on the fitness differences between farm and wild salmon, and evaluated the role of straying as a buffering mechanism against the intrusion of farm genes into wild populations. These results demonstrate that IBSEM is able to capture the evolutionary forces shaping the life history of wild salmon and is therefore able to model the response of populations under environmental and genetic stressors. PMID:26383256

Spatiotemporal patterns of evapotranspiration in response to multiple environmental factors simulated by the Community Land Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Thornton, Peter E

In this study, spatial and temporal patterns of evapotranspiration (ET) over the period of 1982-2008 are investigated and attributed to multiple environmental factors using the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4). Our results show that CLM4 captures the spatial distribution and interannual variability of ET well when compared to observation-based estimates derived from the FLUXNET network of eddy covariance towers using the model tree ensembles (MTE) approach. We find that climate trends and variability dominate predicted variability in ET. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration also plays an important role in modulating the trend of predicted ET over most land areas, andmore » functions as the dominant factor controlling ET changes over North America, South America and Asia regions. Compared to the effect of climate change and CO2 concentration, the roles of other factors such as nitrogen deposition, land use change and aerosol deposition are less pronounced and regionally dependent. For example, the aerosol deposition contribution is the third-most important factor for trends of ET over Europe, while it has the smallest impact on ET trend over other regions. As ET is a dominant component of the terrestrial water cycle, our results suggest that environmental factors like elevated CO2, nitrogen and aerosol depositions, and land use and land cover change, in addition to climate, could have significant impact on future projections of water resources and water cycle dynamics at global and regional scales.« less

The Impact of Environmental Design on Doffing Personal Protective Equipment in a Healthcare Environment: A Formative Human Factors Trial.

PubMed

Herlihey, Tracey A; Gelmi, Stefano; Cafazzo, Joseph A; Hall, Trevor N T

2017-06-01

OBJECTIVE To explore the impact of environmental design on doffing personal protective equipment in a simulated healthcare environment. METHODS A mixed-methods approach was used that included human-factors usability testing and qualitative questionnaire responses. A patient room and connecting anteroom were constructed for testing purposes. This experimental doffing area was designed to overcome the environmental failures identified in a previous study and was not constructed based on any generalizable hospital standard. RESULTS In total, 72 healthcare workers from Ontario, Canada, took part in the study and tested the simulated doffing area. The following environmental design changes were tested and were deemed effective: increasing prominence of color-coded zones; securing disinfectant wipes and hand sanitizer; outlining disposal bins locations; providing mirrors to detect possible contamination; providing hand rails to assist with doffing; and restricting the space to doff. Further experimentation and iterative design are required with regard to several important features: positioning the disposal bins for safety, decreasing the risk of contamination and user accessibility; optimal positioning of mirrors for safety; communication within the team; and positioning the secondary team member for optimal awareness. Additional design suggestions also emerged during this study, and they require future investigation. CONCLUSIONS This study highlights the importance of the environment on doffing personal protective equipment in a healthcare setting. Iterative testing and modification of the design of the environment (doffing area) are important to enhancing healthcare worker safety. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;38:712-717.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Process Identification under Model Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Dai, H.; Walker, A. P.; Shi, L.; Yang, J.

2015-12-01

The environmental system consists of various physical, chemical, and biological processes, and environmental models are always built to simulate these processes and their interactions. For model building, improvement, and validation, it is necessary to identify important processes so that limited resources can be used to better characterize the processes. While global sensitivity analysis has been widely used to identify important processes, the process identification is always based on deterministic process conceptualization that uses a single model for representing a process. However, environmental systems are complex, and it happens often that a single process may be simulated by multiple alternative models. Ignoring the model uncertainty in process identification may lead to biased identification in that identified important processes may not be so in the real world. This study addresses this problem by developing a new method of global sensitivity analysis for process identification. The new method is based on the concept of Sobol sensitivity analysis and model averaging. Similar to the Sobol sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters, our new method evaluates variance change when a process is fixed at its different conceptualizations. The variance considers both parametric and model uncertainty using the method of model averaging. The method is demonstrated using a synthetic study of groundwater modeling that considers recharge process and parameterization process. Each process has two alternative models. Important processes of groundwater flow and transport are evaluated using our new method. The method is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of environmental problems.

COOP+ project: Promoting the cooperation of international Research Infrastructures to address global environmental challenges.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonet-García, F.; Järvi, L.; Asmi, A.; Suárez-Muñoz, M.

2016-12-01

Humanity must face enormous environmental challenges including biodiversity decline, climate change, ocean acidification, sea level rise and overpopulation. The research infrastructures (RIs) created in the last decades worldwide cover a wide range of spatial and thematic scales and collect information about the functioning of Earth ecosystems. However, we need to go one step forward: understand and simulate the functioning of the Earth as a complex system in a global change scenario. Cooperation among international RIs as well as multidisciplinary work are mandatory to achieve this challenging objective. COOP+ (EU Horizon 2020 project) aims to strengthen the links and coordination of European environmental RIs with their international counterparts. COOP+ will create cooperation threads among international research infrastructures using environmental Global Challenges (GCs) as thematic guidelines. These GCs are polyhedral and sometimes wicked problems that threaten the sustainability of our modern societies from a social and environmental perspective. This contribution describes how COOP+ uses GCs as guidelines to foster cooperation among RIs. First we have created an open survey to collect ideas about GCs within the different scientific communities. We present the structure of this survey as well as the preliminary information that it contains. The survey will be accepting responses during the project life (September 2018). We also describe the structure of a template that will be used to collaboratively characterize some selected GCs under the point of view of RIs. The main idea is to assess how RIs can be useful to address global environmental problems. We encourage all scientists related to RIs communities to participate in this process.

Ergonomic aspects simulation digital online: an educational game proposal to promote environmental education.

PubMed

Arbex, D F; Jappur, R; Selig, P; Varvakis, G

2012-01-01

This article addresses the ergonomic criteria that guide the construction of an educational game called Environmental Simulator. The focus is on environment navigation considering aspects of content architecture and its esthetics functionality.

Nuclear Thermal Rocket Element Environmental Simulator (NTREES)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoenfeld, Michael

2009-01-01

A detailed description of the Nuclear Thermal Rocket Element Environmental Simulator (NTREES) is presented. The contents include: 1) Design Requirements; 2) NTREES Layout; 3) Data Acquisition and Control System Schematics; 4) NTREES System Schematic; and 5) NTREES Setup.

Effects of Land Use Change for Crops on Water and Carbon Budgets in the Midwest USA

DOE PAGES

Sun, Jian; Twine, Tracy; Hill, Jason; ...

2017-02-07

By increasing the demand for food and bioenergy, the global landscape has altered dramatically in recent years. Land use and land cover change affects the environmental system in many ways through biophysical and biogeochemical mechanisms. Here, we evaluate the impacts of land use and land cover change driven by recent crop expansion and conversion on the water budget, carbon exchange, and carbon storage in the Midwest USA. A dynamic global vegetation model was used to simulate and examine the impacts of landscape change in a historical case based on crop distribution data from the United States Department of Agriculture Nationalmore » Agricultural Statistics Services. Furthermore, the simulation results indicate that recent crop expansion not only decreased soil carbon sequestration (60 Tg less of soil organic carbon) and net carbon flux into ecosystems (3.7 Tg • year -1 less of net biome productivity), but also lessened water consumption through evapotranspiration (1.04 x 10 10 m 3 • year -1 less) over 12 states in the Midwest. More water yield at the land surface does not necessarily make more water available for vegetation. Crop residue removal might also exacerbate the soil carbon loss.« less

Effects of Land Use Change for Crops on Water and Carbon Budgets in the Midwest USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Jian; Twine, Tracy; Hill, Jason

By increasing the demand for food and bioenergy, the global landscape has altered dramatically in recent years. Land use and land cover change affects the environmental system in many ways through biophysical and biogeochemical mechanisms. Here, we evaluate the impacts of land use and land cover change driven by recent crop expansion and conversion on the water budget, carbon exchange, and carbon storage in the Midwest USA. A dynamic global vegetation model was used to simulate and examine the impacts of landscape change in a historical case based on crop distribution data from the United States Department of Agriculture Nationalmore » Agricultural Statistics Services. Furthermore, the simulation results indicate that recent crop expansion not only decreased soil carbon sequestration (60 Tg less of soil organic carbon) and net carbon flux into ecosystems (3.7 Tg • year -1 less of net biome productivity), but also lessened water consumption through evapotranspiration (1.04 x 10 10 m 3 • year -1 less) over 12 states in the Midwest. More water yield at the land surface does not necessarily make more water available for vegetation. Crop residue removal might also exacerbate the soil carbon loss.« less

Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Selbig, William R.

2015-01-01

The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2 °C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery.

Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin.

PubMed

Selbig, William R

2015-07-15

The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2°C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Projected 2050 Model Simulations for the Chesapeake Bay ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Chesapeake Bay Program as has been tasked with assessing how changes in climate systems are expected to alter key variables and processes within the Watershed in concurrence with land use changes. EPA’s Office of Research and Development will be conducting historic and future, 2050, Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) metrological and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) chemical transport model simulations to provide meteorological and nutrient deposition estimates for inclusion of the Chesapeake Bay Program’s assessment of how climate and land use change may impact water quality and ecosystem health. This presentation will present the timeline and research updates. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

The temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for an optimum.

PubMed

Chevin, Luis-Miguel; Haller, Benjamin C

2014-12-01

Temporal variation in phenotypic selection is often attributed to environmental change causing movements of the adaptive surface relating traits to fitness, but this connection is rarely established empirically. Fluctuating phenotypic selection can be measured by the variance and autocorrelation of directional selection gradients through time. However, the dynamics of these gradients depend not only on environmental changes altering the fitness surface, but also on evolution of the phenotypic distribution. Therefore, it is unclear to what extent variability in selection gradients can inform us about the underlying drivers of their fluctuations. To investigate this question, we derive the temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for a phenotypic optimum that is either constant or fluctuates randomly in various ways in a finite population. Our analytical results, combined with population- and individual-based simulations, show that although some characteristic patterns can be distinguished, very different types of change in the optimum (including a constant optimum) can generate similar temporal distributions of selection gradients, making it difficult to infer the processes underlying apparent fluctuating selection. Analyzing changes in phenotype distributions together with changes in selection gradients should prove more useful for inferring the mechanisms underlying estimated fluctuating selection. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

How copying affects the amount, evenness and persistence of cultural knowledge: insights from the social learning strategies tournament

PubMed Central

Rendell, L.; Boyd, R.; Enquist, M.; Feldman, M. W.; Fogarty, L.; Laland, K. N.

2011-01-01

Darwinian processes should favour those individuals that deploy the most effective strategies for acquiring information about their environment. We organized a computer-based tournament to investigate which learning strategies would perform well in a changing environment. The most successful strategies relied almost exclusively on social learning (here, learning a behaviour performed by another individual) rather than asocial learning, even when environments were changing rapidly; moreover, successful strategies focused learning effort on periods of environmental change. Here, we use data from tournament simulations to examine how these strategies might affect cultural evolution, as reflected in the amount of culture (i.e. number of cultural traits) in the population, the distribution of cultural traits across individuals, and their persistence through time. We found that high levels of social learning are associated with a larger amount of more persistent knowledge, but a smaller amount of less persistent expressed behaviour, as well as more uneven distributions of behaviour, as individuals concentrated on exploiting a smaller subset of behaviour patterns. Increased rates of environmental change generated increases in the amount and evenness of behaviour. These observations suggest that copying confers on cultural populations an adaptive plasticity, allowing them to respond to changing environments rapidly by drawing on a wider knowledge base. PMID:21357234

How copying affects the amount, evenness and persistence of cultural knowledge: insights from the social learning strategies tournament.

PubMed

Rendell, L; Boyd, R; Enquist, M; Feldman, M W; Fogarty, L; Laland, K N

2011-04-12

Darwinian processes should favour those individuals that deploy the most effective strategies for acquiring information about their environment. We organized a computer-based tournament to investigate which learning strategies would perform well in a changing environment. The most successful strategies relied almost exclusively on social learning (here, learning a behaviour performed by another individual) rather than asocial learning, even when environments were changing rapidly; moreover, successful strategies focused learning effort on periods of environmental change. Here, we use data from tournament simulations to examine how these strategies might affect cultural evolution, as reflected in the amount of culture (i.e. number of cultural traits) in the population, the distribution of cultural traits across individuals, and their persistence through time. We found that high levels of social learning are associated with a larger amount of more persistent knowledge, but a smaller amount of less persistent expressed behaviour, as well as more uneven distributions of behaviour, as individuals concentrated on exploiting a smaller subset of behaviour patterns. Increased rates of environmental change generated increases in the amount and evenness of behaviour. These observations suggest that copying confers on cultural populations an adaptive plasticity, allowing them to respond to changing environments rapidly by drawing on a wider knowledge base.

PRESTIGRIS: an operational system for water resources and droughts management on Tuscany, Central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campo, Lorenzo; Caparrini, Francesca; Castelli, Fabio

2013-04-01

In the last years the problems of water management faced by local administration due to the growing demand of the territory and to the changes in terms of availability became more and more important. Also in view of problems issued by the Climate Change, it is necessary to have the availability of information about the present and the future state of the water resources on the territory, both in terms of stress of the water bodies and of trends in the near-future. In this respect, an adequate management and planning of the water resources can make use of meteorological seasonal forecasts (one-three month) for the assessment of the primary sources of fresh water in a given region. The PRESTIGRIS project (PREvisioni STagionali Idrologiche per la Gestione della Risorsa Idrica e della Siccità - hydrologic seasonal forecasts for water resources and droughts management), implemented at the University of Florence in collaboration with Eumechanos Environmental Engineering and LaMMa (Laboratorio di Monitoraggio e Modellistica ambientale, Laboratory for Environmental Monitoring and Modeling), is aimed to provide hydrological seasonal forecasts on the territory of the Tuscany Region, Central Italy, basing on the seasonal meteorological forecasts available at different Weather Services (NOAA, IRI, etc.). The PRESTIGRIS system is based on a stochastic disaggregation of the monthly seasonal forecasts of minimum and maximum air temperature at the ground and of the total rainfall height. Through an analysis based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) techniques, the forecasts are disaggregated in daily maps at a spatial resolution (500 m) compatible with a complete hydrological balance simulation, performed on the entire Tuscany region (about 22000 km2) by the distributed hydrological model MOBIDIC (MOdello di BIlancio Distribuito e Continuo), developed at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering of the University of Florence. Given a single seasonal forecast, the system performs an ensemble of 50 hydrological simulations. Basing on the results of the simulations, significant quantiles of the main variables of interest (soil saturation, discharge flows in the stream network, evapotranspiration) are mapped on the territory. The results of the simulations for the year 2003, in particular during the severe drought occurred during the summer, are shown as an example of the capabilities of the system.

Severe environmental effects of Chicxulub impact imply key role in end-Cretaceous mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brugger, Julia; Feulner, Georg; Petri, Stefan

2017-04-01

66 million years ago, during the most recent of the five severe mass extinctions in Earth's history, non-avian dinosaurs and many other organisms became extinct. The cause of this end-Cretaceous mass extinction is seen in either flood-basalt eruptions or an asteroid impact. Modeling the climatic changes after the Chicxulub asteroid impact allow to assess its contribution to the extinction event and to analyze the short-term and long-term response of the climate and the biosphere to the impact. Existing studies either investigated the effect of dust, which is now believed to play a minor role, or used one-dimensional, non-coupled models. In contrast, we use a coupled climate model to explore the longer lasting cooling due to sulfate aerosols. Based on data from geophysical impact modeling, we set up simulations with different stratospheric residence times for sulfate aerosols. Depending on this residence time, global surface air temperature decreased by at least 26°C, with 3 to 16 years subfreezing temperatures and a recovery time larger than 30 years. Vigorous ocean mixing, caused by the fast cooling of the surface ocean, might have perturbed marine ecosystems by the upwelling of nutrients. The dramatic climatic changes seen in our simulations imply severe environmental effects and therefore a significant contribution of the impact in the end-Cretaceous mass extinction.

Ecological Impacts of Revegetation and Management Practices of Ski Slopes in Northern Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kangas, Katja; Tolvanen, Anne; Kälkäjä, Tarja; Siikamäki, Pirkko

2009-09-01

Outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism represent an increasingly intensive form of land use that has considerable impacts on native ecosystems. The aim of this paper is to investigate how revegetation and management of ski runs influence soil nutrients, vegetation characteristics, and the possible invasion of nonnative plant species used in revegetation into native ecosystems. A soil and vegetation survey at ski runs and nearby forests, and a factorial experiment simulating ski run construction and management (factors: soil removal, fertilization, and seed sowing) were conducted at Ruka ski resort, in northern Finland, during 2003-2008. According to the survey, management practices had caused considerable changes in the vegetation structure and increased soil nutrient concentrations, pH, and conductivity on the ski runs relative to nearby forests. Seed mixture species sown during the revegetation of ski runs had not spread to adjacent forests. The experimental study showed that the germination of seed mixture species was favored by treatments simulating the management of ski runs, but none of them could eventually establish in the study forest. As nutrient leaching causes both environmental deterioration and changes in vegetation structure, it may eventually pose a greater environmental risk than the spread of seed mixture species alone. Machine grading and fertilization, which have the most drastic effects on soils and vegetation, should, therefore, be minimized when constructing and managing ski runs.

Ecological impacts of revegetation and management practices of ski slopes in northern Finland.

PubMed

Kangas, Katja; Tolvanen, Anne; Kälkäjä, Tarja; Siikamäki, Pirkko

2009-09-01

Outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism represent an increasingly intensive form of land use that has considerable impacts on native ecosystems. The aim of this paper is to investigate how revegetation and management of ski runs influence soil nutrients, vegetation characteristics, and the possible invasion of nonnative plant species used in revegetation into native ecosystems. A soil and vegetation survey at ski runs and nearby forests, and a factorial experiment simulating ski run construction and management (factors: soil removal, fertilization, and seed sowing) were conducted at Ruka ski resort, in northern Finland, during 2003-2008. According to the survey, management practices had caused considerable changes in the vegetation structure and increased soil nutrient concentrations, pH, and conductivity on the ski runs relative to nearby forests. Seed mixture species sown during the revegetation of ski runs had not spread to adjacent forests. The experimental study showed that the germination of seed mixture species was favored by treatments simulating the management of ski runs, but none of them could eventually establish in the study forest. As nutrient leaching causes both environmental deterioration and changes in vegetation structure, it may eventually pose a greater environmental risk than the spread of seed mixture species alone. Machine grading and fertilization, which have the most drastic effects on soils and vegetation, should, therefore, be minimized when constructing and managing ski runs.

40 CFR 86.162-00 - Approval of alternative air conditioning test simulations and descriptions of AC1 and AC2.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... exhaust emission results of air conditioning operation in an environmental test cell by adding additional... conditioning operation in an environmental test cell by adding a heat load to the passenger compartment. The... the simulation matches environmental cell test data for the range of vehicles to be covered by the...

Population dynamics in the presence of quasispecies effects and changing environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forster, Robert Burke

2006-12-01

This thesis explores how natural selection acts on organisms such as viruses that have either highly error-prone reproduction or face variable environmental conditions or both. By modeling population dynamics under these conditions, we gain a better understanding of the selective forces at work, both in our simulations and hopefully also in real organisms. With an understanding of the important factors in natural selection we can forecast not only the immediate fate of an existing population but also in what directions such a population might evolve in the future. We demonstrate that the concept of a quasispecies is relevant to evolution in a neutral fitness landscape. Motivated by RNA viruses such as HIV, we use RNA secondary structure as our model system and find that quasispecies effects arise both rapidly and in realistically small populations. We discover that the evolutionary effects of neutral drift, punctuated equilibrium and the selection for mutational robustness extend to the concept of a quasispecies. In our study of periodic environments, we consider the tradeoffs faced by quasispecies in adapting to environmental change. We develop an analytical model to predict whether evolution favors short-term or long-term adaptation and validate our model through simulation. Our results bear directly on the population dynamics of viruses such as West Nile that alternate between two host species. More generally, we discover that a selective pressure exists under these conditions to fuse or split genes with complementary environmental functions. Lastly, we study the general effects of frequency-dependent selection on two strains competing in a periodic environment. Under very general assumptions, we prove that stable coexistence rather than extinction is the likely outcome. The population dynamics of this system may be as simple as stable equilibrium or as complex as deterministic chaos.

High-Resolution Biogeochemical Simulation Identifies Practical Opportunities for Bioenergy Landscape Intensification Across Diverse US Agricultural Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, J.; Adler, P. R.; Evans, S.; Paustian, K.; Marx, E.; Easter, M.

2015-12-01

The sustainability of biofuel expansion is strongly dependent on the environmental footprint of feedstock production, including both direct impacts within feedstock-producing areas and potential leakage effects due to disruption of existing food, feed, or fiber production. Assessing and minimizing these impacts requires novel methods compared to traditional supply chain lifecycle assessment. When properly validated and applied at appropriate spatial resolutions, biogeochemical process models are useful for simulating how the productivity and soil greenhouse gas fluxes of cultivating both conventional crops and advanced feedstock crops respond across gradients of land quality and management intensity. In this work we use the DayCent model to assess the biogeochemical impacts of agricultural residue collection, establishment of perennial grasses on marginal cropland or conservation easements, and intensification of existing cropping at high spatial resolution across several real-world case study landscapes in diverse US agricultural regions. We integrate the resulting estimates of productivity, soil carbon changes, and nitrous oxide emissions with crop production budgets and lifecycle inventories, and perform a basic optimization to generate landscape cost/GHG frontiers and determine the most practical opportunities for low-impact feedstock provisioning. The optimization is constrained to assess the minimum combined impacts of residue collection, land use change, and intensification of existing agriculture necessary for the landscape to supply a commercial-scale biorefinery while maintaining exiting food, feed, and fiber production levels. These techniques can be used to assess how different feedstock provisioning strategies perform on both economic and environmental criteria, and sensitivity of performance to environmental and land use factors. The included figure shows an example feedstock cost-GHG mitigation tradeoff frontier for a commercial-scale cellulosic biofuel facility in Kansas.

Model-based analysis of environmental controls over ecosystem primary production in an alpine tundra dry meadow

DOE PAGES

Fan, Zhaosheng; Neff, Jason C.; Wieder, William R.

2016-02-10

We investigated several key limiting factors that control alpine tundra productivity by developing an ecosystem biogeochemistry model. The model simulates the coupled cycling of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) and their interactions with gross primary production (GPP). It was parameterized with field observations from an alpine dry meadow ecosystem using a global optimization strategy to estimate the unknown parameters. The model, along with the estimated parameters, was first validated against independent data and then used to examine the environmental controls over plant productivity. Our results show that air temperature is the strongest limiting factor to GPP in themore » early growing season, N availability becomes important during the middle portion of the growing season, and soil moisture is the strongest limiting factors by late in the growing season. Overall, the controls over GPP during the growing season, from strongest to weakest, are soil moisture content, air temperature, N availability, and P availability. This simulation provides testable predictions of the shifting nature of physical and nutrient limitations on plant growth. The model also indicates that changing environmental conditions in the alpine will likely lead to changes in productivity. For example, warming eliminates the control of P availability on GPP and makes N availability surpass air temperature to become the second strongest limiting factor. In contrast, an increase in atmospheric nutrient deposition eliminates the control of N availability and enhances the importance of P availability. Furthermore, these analyses provide a quantitative and conceptual framework that can be used to test predictions and refine ecological analyses at this long-term ecological research site.« less

Model-based analysis of environmental controls over ecosystem primary production in an alpine tundra dry meadow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Zhaosheng; Neff, Jason C.; Wieder, William R.

We investigated several key limiting factors that control alpine tundra productivity by developing an ecosystem biogeochemistry model. The model simulates the coupled cycling of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) and their interactions with gross primary production (GPP). It was parameterized with field observations from an alpine dry meadow ecosystem using a global optimization strategy to estimate the unknown parameters. The model, along with the estimated parameters, was first validated against independent data and then used to examine the environmental controls over plant productivity. Our results show that air temperature is the strongest limiting factor to GPP in themore » early growing season, N availability becomes important during the middle portion of the growing season, and soil moisture is the strongest limiting factors by late in the growing season. Overall, the controls over GPP during the growing season, from strongest to weakest, are soil moisture content, air temperature, N availability, and P availability. This simulation provides testable predictions of the shifting nature of physical and nutrient limitations on plant growth. The model also indicates that changing environmental conditions in the alpine will likely lead to changes in productivity. For example, warming eliminates the control of P availability on GPP and makes N availability surpass air temperature to become the second strongest limiting factor. In contrast, an increase in atmospheric nutrient deposition eliminates the control of N availability and enhances the importance of P availability. Furthermore, these analyses provide a quantitative and conceptual framework that can be used to test predictions and refine ecological analyses at this long-term ecological research site.« less

Environmentally induced chemical and morphological heterogeneity of zinc oxide thin films

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Hua; Chou, Kang Wei; Petrash, Stanislas

Zinc oxide (ZnO) thin films have been reported to suffer from degradation in electrical properties, when exposed to elevated heat and humidity, often leading to failures of electronic devices containing ZnO films. This degradation appears to be linked to water and oxygen penetration into the ZnO film. However, a direct observation in the ZnO film morphological evolution detailing structural and chemical changes has been lacking. Here, we systematically investigated the chemical and morphological heterogeneities of ZnO thin films caused by elevated heat and humidity, simulating an environmental aging. X-ray fluorescence microscopy, X-ray absorption spectroscopy, grazing incidence small angle and widemore » angle X-ray scattering, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), ultra-high-resolution SEM, and optical microscopy were carried out to examine ZnO and Al-doped ZnO thin films on two different substrates—silicon wafers and flexible polyethylene terephthalate (PET) films. In the un-doped ZnO thin film, the simulated environmental aging is resulting in pin-holes. In the Al-doped ZnO thin films, significant morphological changes occurred after the treatment, with an appearance of platelet-shaped structures that are 100–200 nm wide by 1 μm long. Synchrotron x-ray characterization further confirmed the heterogeneity in the aged Al-doped ZnO, showing the formation of anisotropic structures and disordering. X-ray diffraction and X-ray absorption spectroscopy indicated the formation of a zinc hydroxide in the aged Al-doped films. Utilizing advanced characterization methods, our studies provided information with an unprecedented level of details and revealed the chemical and morphologically heterogeneous nature of the degradation in ZnO thin films.« less

Environmentally induced chemical and morphological heterogeneity of zinc oxide thin films

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Hua; Chou, Kang Wei; Petrash, Stanislas

Zinc oxide (ZnO) thin films have been reported to suffer from degradation in electrical properties, when exposed to elevated heat and humidity, often leading to failures of electronic devices containing ZnO films. This degradation appears to be linked to water and oxygen penetration into the ZnO film. However, a direct observation in the ZnO film morphological evolution detailing structural and chemical changes has been lacking. Here, we systematically investigated the chemical and morphological heterogeneities of ZnO thin films caused by elevated heat and humidity, simulating an environmental aging. X-ray fluorescence microscopy, X-ray absorption spectroscopy, grazing incidence small angle and widemore » angle X-ray scattering, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), ultra-high-resolution SEM, and optical microscopy were carried out to examine ZnO and Al-doped ZnO thin films on two different substrates—silicon wafers and flexible polyethylene terephthalate (PET) films. In the un-doped ZnO thin film, the simulated environmental aging is resulting in pin-holes. In the Al-doped ZnO thin films, significant morphological changes occurred after the treatment, with an appearance of platelet-shaped structures that are 100–200 nm wide by 1μm long. Synchrotron x-ray characterization further confirmed the heterogeneity in the aged Al-doped ZnO, showing the formation of anisotropic structures and disordering. X-ray diffraction and X-ray absorption spectroscopy indicated the formation of a zinc hydroxide in the aged Al-doped films. In conclusion, utilizing advanced characterization methods, our studies provided information with an unprecedented level of details and revealed the chemical and morphologically heterogeneous nature of the degradation in ZnO thin films.« less

Environmentally induced chemical and morphological heterogeneity of zinc oxide thin films

DOE PAGES

Jiang, Hua; Chou, Kang Wei; Petrash, Stanislas; ...

2016-09-02

Zinc oxide (ZnO) thin films have been reported to suffer from degradation in electrical properties, when exposed to elevated heat and humidity, often leading to failures of electronic devices containing ZnO films. This degradation appears to be linked to water and oxygen penetration into the ZnO film. However, a direct observation in the ZnO film morphological evolution detailing structural and chemical changes has been lacking. Here, we systematically investigated the chemical and morphological heterogeneities of ZnO thin films caused by elevated heat and humidity, simulating an environmental aging. X-ray fluorescence microscopy, X-ray absorption spectroscopy, grazing incidence small angle and widemore » angle X-ray scattering, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), ultra-high-resolution SEM, and optical microscopy were carried out to examine ZnO and Al-doped ZnO thin films on two different substrates—silicon wafers and flexible polyethylene terephthalate (PET) films. In the un-doped ZnO thin film, the simulated environmental aging is resulting in pin-holes. In the Al-doped ZnO thin films, significant morphological changes occurred after the treatment, with an appearance of platelet-shaped structures that are 100–200 nm wide by 1μm long. Synchrotron x-ray characterization further confirmed the heterogeneity in the aged Al-doped ZnO, showing the formation of anisotropic structures and disordering. X-ray diffraction and X-ray absorption spectroscopy indicated the formation of a zinc hydroxide in the aged Al-doped films. In conclusion, utilizing advanced characterization methods, our studies provided information with an unprecedented level of details and revealed the chemical and morphologically heterogeneous nature of the degradation in ZnO thin films.« less

Preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: pathways from anticipation to action.

PubMed

Brookes, V J; Hernández-Jover, M; Black, P F; Ward, M P

2015-07-01

Emerging and re-emerging infectious disease (EID) events can have devastating human, animal and environmental health impacts. The emergence of EIDs has been associated with interconnected economic, social and environmental changes. Understanding these changes is crucial for EID preparedness and subsequent prevention and control of EID events. The aim of this review is to describe tools currently available for identification, prioritization and investigation of EIDs impacting human and animal health, and how these might be integrated into a systematic approach for directing EID preparedness. Environmental scanning, foresight programmes, horizon scanning and surveillance are used to collect and assess information for rapidly responding to EIDs and to anticipate drivers of emergence for mitigating future EID impacts. Prioritization of EIDs - using transparent and repeatable methods - based on disease impacts and the importance of those impacts to decision-makers can then be used for more efficient resource allocation for prevention and control. Risk assessment and simulation modelling methods assess the likelihood of EIDs occurring, define impact and identify mitigation strategies. Each of these tools has a role to play individually; however, we propose integration of these tools into a framework that enhances the development of tactical and strategic plans for emerging risk preparedness.

Early effects of altered gravity environments on plant cell growth and cell proliferation: Characterization of morphofunctional nucleolar types in an Arabidopsis cell culture system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzano, Ana Isabel; Herranz, Raul; Manzano, Aránzazu; Van Loon, Jack; Medina, Francisco Javier

2016-02-01

Changes in the cell growth rate of an in vitro cellular system in Arabidopsis thaliana induced by short exposure to an altered gravity environment have been estimated by a novel approach. The method consisted of defining three structural nucleolar types which are easy and reliable indicators of the ribosome biogenesis activity and, consequently, of protein biosynthesis, a parameter strictly correlated to cell growth in this cellular system. The relative abundance of each nucleolar type was statistically assessed in different conditions of gravity. Samples exposed to simulated microgravity for 200 min showed a significant decrease in nucleolar activity compared to 1g controls, whereas samples exposed to hypergravity (2g) for the same period showed nucleolar activity slightly increased,. These effects could be considered as an early cellular response to the environmental alteration, given the short duration of the treatment. The functional significance of the structural data was validated by a combination of several different well-known parameters, using microscopical, flow cytometry, qPCR and proteomic approaches, which showed that the decreased cell growth rate was decoupled from an increased cell proliferation rate under simulated microgravity, and the opposite trend was observed under hypergravity. Actually, not all parameters tested showed the same quantitative changes, indicating that the response to the environmental alteration is time-dependent. These results are in agreement with previous observations in root meristematic cells and they show the ability of plant cells to produce a response to gravity changes, independently of their integration into plant organs.

Full-size solar dynamic heat receiver thermal-vacuum tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sedgwick, L. M.; Kaufmann, K. J.; Mclallin, K. L.; Kerslake, Thomas W.

1991-01-01

The testing of a full-size, 120 kW, solar dynamic heat receiver utilizing high-temperature thermal energy storage is described. The purpose of the test program was to quantify receiver thermodynamic performance, operating temperatures, and thermal response to changes in environmental and power module interface boundary conditions. The heat receiver was tested in a vacuum chamber with liquid nitrogen cold shrouds and an aperture cold plate to partly simulate a low-Earth-orbit environment. The cavity of the receiver was heated by an infrared quartz lamp heater with 30 independently controllable zones to allow axially and circumferentially varied flux distributions. A closed-Brayton cycle engine simulator conditioned a helium-xenon gas mixture to specific interface conditions to simulate the various operational modes of the solar dynamic power module on the Space Station Freedom. Inlet gas temperature, pressure, and flow rate were independently varied. A total of 58 simulated orbital cycles, each 94 minutes in duration, was completed during the test conduct period.

Full-size solar dynamic heat receiver thermal-vacuum tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sedgwick, L. M.; Kaufmann, K. J.; Mclallin, K. L.; Kerslake, T. W.

1991-01-01

The testing of a full-size, 102 kW, solar dynamic heat receiver utilizing high-temperature thermal energy storage is described. The purpose of the test program was to quantify receiver thermodynamic performance, operating temperatures, and thermal response to changes in environmental and power module interface boundary conditions. The heat receiver was tested in a vacuum chamber with liquid nitrogen cold shrouds and an aperture cold plate to partly simulate a low-Earth-orbit environment. The cavity of the receiver was heated by an infrared quartz lamp heater with 30 independently controllable zones to allow axially and circumferentially varied flux distributions. A closed-Brayton cycle engine simulator conditioned a helium-xenon gas mixture to specific interface conditions to simulate the various operational modes of the solar dynamic power module on the Space Station Freedom. Inlet gas temperature, pressure, and flow rate were independently varied. A total of 58 simulated orbital cycles, each 94 minutes in duration, was completed during the test period.

Comparative proteomic analysis of differentially expressed proteins in β-aminobutyric acid enhanced Arabidopsis thaliana tolerance to simulated acid rain.

PubMed

Liu, Tingwu; Jiang, Xinwu; Shi, Wuliang; Chen, Juan; Pei, Zhenming; Zheng, Hailei

2011-05-01

Acid rain is a worldwide environmental issue that has seriously destroyed forest ecosystems. As a highly effective and broad-spectrum plant resistance-inducing agent, β-aminobutyric acid could elevate the tolerance of Arabidopsis when subjected to simulated acid rain. Using comparative proteomic strategies, we analyzed 203 significantly varied proteins of which 175 proteins were identified responding to β-aminobutyric acid in the absence and presence of simulated acid rain. They could be divided into ten groups according to their biological functions. Among them, the majority was cell rescue, development and defense-related proteins, followed by transcription, protein synthesis, folding, modification and destination-associated proteins. Our conclusion is β-aminobutyric acid can lead to a large-scale primary metabolism change and simultaneously activate antioxidant system and salicylic acid, jasmonic acid, abscisic acid signaling pathways. In addition, β-aminobutyric acid can reinforce physical barriers to defend simulated acid rain stress. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Full-size solar dynamic heat receiver thermal-vacuum tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedgwick, L. M.; Kaufmann, K. J.; McLallin, K. L.; Kerslake, T. W.

The testing of a full-size, 102 kW, solar dynamic heat receiver utilizing high-temperature thermal energy storage is described. The purpose of the test program was to quantify receiver thermodynamic performance, operating temperatures, and thermal response to changes in environmental and power module interface boundary conditions. The heat receiver was tested in a vacuum chamber with liquid nitrogen cold shrouds and an aperture cold plate to partly simulate a low-Earth-orbit environment. The cavity of the receiver was heated by an infrared quartz lamp heater with 30 independently controllable zones to allow axially and circumferentially varied flux distributions. A closed-Brayton cycle engine simulator conditioned a helium-xenon gas mixture to specific interface conditions to simulate the various operational modes of the solar dynamic power module on the Space Station Freedom. Inlet gas temperature, pressure, and flow rate were independently varied. A total of 58 simulated orbital cycles, each 94 minutes in duration, was completed during the test period.

Apollo experience report: Systems and flight procedures development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kramer, P. C.

1973-01-01

This report describes the process of crew procedures development used in the Apollo Program. The two major categories, Systems Procedures and Flight Procedures, are defined, as are the forms of documentation required. A description is provided of the operation of the procedures change control process, which includes the roles of man-in-the-loop simulations and the Crew Procedures Change Board. Brief discussions of significant aspects of the attitude control, computer, electrical power, environmental control, and propulsion subsystems procedures development are presented. Flight procedures are subdivided by mission phase: launch and translunar injection, rendezvous, lunar descent and ascent, and entry. Procedures used for each mission phase are summarized.

Implications of Different Worldviews to Assess Soil Organic Carbon Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grunwald, S.

2012-04-01

Profound shifts have occurred over the last three centuries in which human actions have become the main driver to global environmental change. In this new epoch, the Anthropocene, human-driven changes such as climate and land use change, are pushing the Earth system well outside of its normal operating range causing severe and abrupt environmental change. Changes in land use management and land cover are intricately linked to the carbon cycle, but our knowledge on its spatially and temporally explicit impact on carbon dynamics across different scales is still poorly understood. To elucidate on the magnitude of change in soil organic carbon (SOC) due to human-induced stressors different philosophical worldviews may be considered including (i) empiricism - direct measurements of properties and processes at micro, site-specific or field scales; (ii) metaphysics and ontology - conceptual models to assess soil change (e.g., STEP-AWBH); (iii) epistemology - indirect approaches (e.g., meta-analysis or spectral informed prediction models); (iv) reductionism - e.g., carbon flux measurements; (iv) determinism - mechanistic simulation models and biogeochemical investigations (e.g., Century or DNDC); (v) holism - national or global soil databases and aggregate maps; or (vi) integral - fusing individual, social, economic, cultural and empirical perspectives. The strengths and limitations of each of these philosophical approaches are demonstrated using case examples from Florida and U.S.A. The sensitivity to assess SOC change and uncertainty, backcasting and forecasting ability, scaling potential across space and time domains, and limitations and constraints of different worldviews are discussed.

25th Space Simulation Conference. Environmental Testing: The Earth-Space Connection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Packard, Edward

2008-01-01

Topics covered include: Methods of Helium Injection and Removal for Heat Transfer Augmentation; The ESA Large Space Simulator Mechanical Ground Support Equipment for Spacecraft Testing; Temperature Stability and Control Requirements for Thermal Vacuum/Thermal Balance Testing of the Aquarius Radiometer; The Liquid Nitrogen System for Chamber A: A Change from Original Forced Flow Design to a Natural Flow (Thermo Siphon) System; Return to Mercury: A Comparison of Solar Simulation and Flight Data for the MESSENGER Spacecraft; Floating Pressure Conversion and Equipment Upgrades of Two 3.5kw, 20k, Helium Refrigerators; Affect of Air Leakage into a Thermal-Vacuum Chamber on Helium Refrigeration Heat Load; Special ISO Class 6 Cleanroom for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Project; A State-of-the-Art Contamination Effects Research and Test Facility Martian Dust Simulator; Cleanroom Design Practices and Their Influence on Particle Counts; Extra Terrestrial Environmental Chamber Design; Contamination Sources Effects Analysis (CSEA) - A Tool to Balance Cost/Schedule While Managing Facility Availability; SES and Acoustics at GSFC; HST Super Lightweight Interchangeable Carrier (SLIC) Static Test; Virtual Shaker Testing: Simulation Technology Improves Vibration Test Performance; Estimating Shock Spectra: Extensions beyond GEVS; Structural Dynamic Analysis of a Spacecraft Multi-DOF Shaker Table; Direct Field Acoustic Testing; Manufacture of Cryoshroud Surfaces for Space Simulation Chambers; The New LOTIS Test Facility; Thermal Vacuum Control Systems Options for Test Facilities; Extremely High Vacuum Chamber for Low Outgassing Processing at NASA Goddard; Precision Cleaning - Path to Premier; The New Anechoic Shielded Chambers Designed for Space and Commercial Applications at LIT; Extraction of Thermal Performance Values from Samples in the Lunar Dust Adhesion Bell Jar; Thermal (Silicon Diode) Data Acquisition System; Aquarius's Instrument Science Data System (ISDS) Automated to Acquire, Process, Trend Data and Produce Radiometric System Assessment Reports; Exhaustive Thresholds and Resistance Checkpoints; Reconfigurable HIL Testing of Earth Satellites; FPGA Control System for the Automated Test of MicroShutters; Ongoing Capabilities and Developments of Re-Entry Plasma Ground Tests at EADS-ASTRIUM; Operationally Responsive Space Standard Bus Battery Thermal Balance Testing and Heat Dissipation Analysis; Galileo - The Serial-Production AIT Challenge; The Space Systems Environmental Test Facility Database (SSETFD), Website Development Status; Simulated Reentry Heating by Torching; Micro-Vibration Measurements on Thermally Loaded Multi-Layer Insulation Samples in Vacuum; High Temperature Life Testing of 80Ni-20Cr Wire in a Simulated Mars Atmosphere for the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) Instrument Suit Gas Processing System (GPS) Carbon Dioxide Scrubber; The Planning and Implementation of Test Facility Improvements; and Development of a Silicon Carbide Molecular Beam Nozzle for Simulation Planetary Flybys and Low-Earth Orbit.

Essays in environmental economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartz-Marvez, Sherry L.

This body of work contributes to the literature on two current topics in environmental economics: (1) the relationship between economic development and environmental degradation; and (2) the effectiveness of mandatory information disclosure as a regulatory instrument. For the first topic, we link theoretical and empirical Environmental Kuznets Curve research by using calibration and simulation to test a growth model with environmental quality as a normal good and emissions as a factor of production. We use U.S. macroeconomic, emissions and compliance data to calibrate parameters representing preferences for environmental quality and marginal abatement costs. We simulate the model starting from a less-developed initial condition and compare the predicted pollution-income relationship with that in the data. Our results are mixed. Some support exists for the theory that an inverted U-shape results from a corner solution in which less developed countries do not abate pollution. However, pollution peaks at a level of per capita income which is much lower than that observed in the U.S. data. For the second topic, we study the effectiveness of mandatory information disclosure as environmental regulation. Community-right-to-know programs such as the EPA's Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) use mandatory information disclosure to "shame" dirty firms into reducing emissions. The idea is that the public---armed with previously unavailable emissions information---will pressure firms with higher-than-expected emissions to "clean-up." We use the electricity industry to study the impact of price-and-entry deregulation on the effectiveness of the TRI. Using event studies, we find that, on average, utilities experience losses in firm value immediately following TRI announcements. Using panel regressions, we show that toxic emissions released in regulated states are associated with decreases in firm value while those released in deregulated states are associated with increases in firm value. We then estimate the impact of changes in firm value on subsequent emissions, finding that releases of most TRI pollutants are reduced in regulated states, but not in deregulated states.

CMIP5-downscaled projections for the NW European Shelf Seas: initial results and insights into uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinker, Jonathan; Palmer, Matthew; Lowe, Jason; Howard, Tom

2017-04-01

The North Sea, and wider Northwest European Shelf seas (NWS) are economically, environmentally, and culturally important for a number of European countries. They are protected by European legislation, often with specific reference to the potential impacts of climate change. Coastal climate change projections are an important source of information for effective management of European Shelf Seas. For example, potential changes in the marine environment are a key component of the climate change risk assessments (CCRAs) carried out under the UK Climate Change Act We use the NEMO shelf seas model combined with CMIP5 climate model and EURO-CORDEX regional atmospheric model data to generate new simulations of the NWS. Building on previous work using a climate model perturbed physics ensemble and the POLCOMS, this new model setup is used to provide first indication of the uncertainties associated with: (i) the driving climate model; (ii) the atmospheric downscaling model (iii) the shelf seas downscaling model; (iv) the choice of climate change scenario. Our analysis considers a range of physical marine impacts and the drivers of coastal variability and change, including sea level and the propagation of open ocean signals onto the shelf. The simulations are being carried out as part of the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) and will feed into the following UK CCRA.

A simulation-based approach for evaluating and comparing the environmental footprints of beef production systems.

PubMed

Rotz, C A; Isenberg, B J; Stackhouse-Lawson, K R; Pollak, E J

2013-11-01

A methodology was developed and used to determine environmental footprints of beef cattle produced at the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center (MARC) in Clay Center, NE, with the goal of quantifying improvements achieved over the past 40 yr. Information for MARC operations was gathered and used to establish parameters representing their production system with the Integrated Farm System Model. The MARC farm, cow-calf, and feedlot operations were each simulated over recent historical weather to evaluate performance, environmental impact, and economics. The current farm operation included 841 ha of alfalfa and 1,160 ha of corn to produce feed predominately for the beef herd of 5,500 cows, 1,180 replacement cattle, and 3,724 cattle finished per year. Spring and fall cow-calf herds were fed on 9,713 ha of pastureland supplemented through the winter with hay and silage produced by the farm operation. Feedlot cattle were backgrounded for 3 mo on hay and silage with some grain and finished over 7 mo on a diet high in corn and wet distillers grain. For weather year 2011, simulated feed production and use, energy use, and production costs were within 1% of actual records. A 25-yr simulation of their current production system gave an average annual carbon footprint of 10.9±0.6 kg of CO2 equivalent units per kg BW sold, and the energy required to produce that beef (energy footprint) was 26.5±4.5 MJ/kg BW. The annual water required (water footprint) was 21,300±5,600 L/kg BW sold, and the water footprint excluding precipitation was 2,790±910 L/kg BW. The simulated annual cost of producing their beef was US$2.11±0.05/kg BW. Simulation of the production practices of 2005 indicated that the inclusion of distillers grain in animal diets has had a relatively small effect on environmental footprints except that reactive nitrogen loss has increased 10%. Compared to 1970, the carbon footprint of the beef produced has decreased 6% with no change in the energy footprint, a 3% reduction in the reactive nitrogen footprint, and a 6% reduction in the real cost of production. The water footprint, excluding precipitation, has increased 42% due to greater use of irrigated corn production. This proven methodology provides a means for developing the production data needed to support regional and national full life cycle assessments of the sustainability of beef.

Environmental impact assessment of coal power plants in operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartan, Ayfer; Kucukali, Serhat; Ar, Irfan

2017-11-01

Coal power plants constitute an important component of the energy mix in many countries. However, coal power plants can cause several environmental risks such as: climate change and biodiversity loss. In this study, a tool has been proposed to calculate the environmental impact of a coal-fired thermal power plant in operation by using multi-criteria scoring and fuzzy logic method. We take into account the following environmental parameters in our tool: CO, SO2, NOx, particulate matter, fly ash, bottom ash, the cooling water intake impact on aquatic biota, and the thermal pollution. In the proposed tool, the boundaries of the fuzzy logic membership functions were established taking into account the threshold values of the environmental parameters which were defined in the environmental legislation. Scoring of these environmental parameters were done with the statistical analysis of the environmental monitoring data of the power plant and by using the documented evidences that were obtained during the site visits. The proposed method estimates each environmental impact factor level separately and then aggregates them by calculating the Environmental Impact Score (EIS). The proposed method uses environmental monitoring data and documented evidence instead of using simulation models. The proposed method has been applied to the 4 coal-fired power plants that have been operation in Turkey. The Environmental Impact Score was obtained for each power plant and their environmental performances were compared. It is expected that those environmental impact assessments will contribute to the decision-making process for environmental investments to those plants. The main advantage of the proposed method is its flexibility and ease of use.

3D-information fusion from very high resolution satellite sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krauss, T.; d'Angelo, P.; Kuschk, G.; Tian, J.; Partovi, T.

2015-04-01

In this paper we show the pre-processing and potential for environmental applications of very high resolution (VHR) satellite stereo imagery like these from WorldView-2 or Pl'eiades with ground sampling distances (GSD) of half a metre to a metre. To process such data first a dense digital surface model (DSM) has to be generated. Afterwards from this a digital terrain model (DTM) representing the ground and a so called normalized digital elevation model (nDEM) representing off-ground objects are derived. Combining these elevation based data with a spectral classification allows detection and extraction of objects from the satellite scenes. Beside the object extraction also the DSM and DTM can directly be used for simulation and monitoring of environmental issues. Examples are the simulation of floodings, building-volume and people estimation, simulation of noise from roads, wave-propagation for cellphones, wind and light for estimating renewable energy sources, 3D change detection, earthquake preparedness and crisis relief, urban development and sprawl of informal settlements and much more. Also outside of urban areas volume information brings literally a new dimension to earth oberservation tasks like the volume estimations of forests and illegal logging, volume of (illegal) open pit mining activities, estimation of flooding or tsunami risks, dike planning, etc. In this paper we present the preprocessing from the original level-1 satellite data to digital surface models (DSMs), corresponding VHR ortho images and derived digital terrain models (DTMs). From these components we present how a monitoring and decision fusion based 3D change detection can be realized by using different acquisitions. The results are analyzed and assessed to derive quality parameters for the presented method. Finally the usability of 3D information fusion from VHR satellite imagery is discussed and evaluated.

The Effects of Simulated Weightlessness on Susceptibility to Viral and Bacterial Infections Using a Murine Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gould, C. L.

1985-01-01

Certain immunological responses may be compromised as a result of changes in environmental conditions, such as the physiological adaptation to and from the weightlessness which occurs during space flight and recovery. A murine antiorthostatic model was developed to simulate weightlessness. Using this model, the proposed study will determine if differences in susceptibility to viral and bacterial infections exist among mice suspended in an antiorthostatic orientation to simulate weightlessness, mice suspended in an orthostatic orientation to provide a stressful situation without the condition of weightlessness simulation, and non-suspended control mice. Inbred mouse strains which are resistant to the diabetogenic effects of the D variant of encephalomyocarditis virus (EMC-D) and the lethal effects of Salmonella typhimurium will be evaluated. Glucose tolerance tests will be performed on all EMC-D-infected and non-infected control groups. The incidence of EMC-D-induced diabetes and the percentage survival of S. typhimurium-infected animals will be determined in each group. An additional study will determine the effects of simulated weightlessness on murine responses to exogenous interferon.

Boldness in a deep sea hermit crab to simulated tactile predator attacks is unaffected by ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Tae Won; Barry, James P.

2016-09-01

Despite rapidly growing interest in the effects of ocean acidification on marine animals, the ability of deep-sea animals to acclimate or adapt to reduced pH conditions has received little attention. Deep-sea species are generally thought to be less tolerant of environmental variation than shallow-living species because they inhabit relatively stable conditions for nearly all environmental parameters. To explore whether deep-sea hermit crabs ( Pagurus tanneri) can acclimate to ocean acidification over several weeks, we compared behavioral "boldness," measured as time taken to re-emerge from shells after a simulated predatory attack by a toy octopus, under ambient (pH ˜7.6) and expected future (pH ˜7.1) conditions. The boldness measure for crab behavioral responses did not differ between different pH treatments, suggesting that future deep-sea acidification would not influence anti-predatory behavior. However, we did not examine the effects of olfactory cues released by predators that may affect hermit crab behavior and could be influenced by changes in the ocean carbonate system driven by increasing CO2 levels.

Modeling evolution of spatially distributed bacterial communities: a simulation with the haploid evolutionary constructor

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background Multiscale approaches for integrating submodels of various levels of biological organization into a single model became the major tool of systems biology. In this paper, we have constructed and simulated a set of multiscale models of spatially distributed microbial communities and study an influence of unevenly distributed environmental factors on the genetic diversity and evolution of the community members. Results Haploid Evolutionary Constructor software http://evol-constructor.bionet.nsc.ru/ was expanded by adding the tool for the spatial modeling of a microbial community (1D, 2D and 3D versions). A set of the models of spatially distributed communities was built to demonstrate that the spatial distribution of cells affects both intensity of selection and evolution rate. Conclusion In spatially heterogeneous communities, the change in the direction of the environmental flow might be reflected in local irregular population dynamics, while the genetic structure of populations (frequencies of the alleles) remains stable. Furthermore, in spatially heterogeneous communities, the chemotaxis might dramatically affect the evolution of community members. PMID:25708911

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Evapotranspiration in Response to Multiple Environmental Factors Simulated by the Community Land Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Thornton, P.

Spatiotemporal patterns of evapotranspiration (ET) over the period from 1982 to 2008 are investigated and attributed to multiple environmental factors using the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4). Our results show that CLM4 captures the spatial distribution and interannual variability of ET well when compared to observation-based estimates. We find that climate dominates the predicted variability in ET. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration also plays an important role in modulating the trend of predicted ET over most land areas, and replaces climate to function as the dominant factor controlling ET changes over the North America, South America and Asia regions. Comparedmore » to the effect of climate and CO2 concentration, the roles of other factors such as nitrogen deposition, land use change and aerosol deposition are less pronounced and regionally dependent. The aerosol deposition contribution is the third most important factor for trends of ET over Europe, while it has the smallest impact over other regions. As ET is a dominant component of the terrestrial water cycle, our results suggest that environmental factors like elevated CO2, nitrogen and aerosol depositions, and land use change, in addition to climate, could have significant impact on future projections of water resources and water cycle dynamics at global and regional scales.« less

A Novel Cloud-Based Service Robotics Application to Data Center Environmental Monitoring

PubMed Central

Russo, Ludovico Orlando; Rosa, Stefano; Maggiora, Marcello; Bona, Basilio

2016-01-01

This work presents a robotic application aimed at performing environmental monitoring in data centers. Due to the high energy density managed in data centers, environmental monitoring is crucial for controlling air temperature and humidity throughout the whole environment, in order to improve power efficiency, avoid hardware failures and maximize the life cycle of IT devices. State of the art solutions for data center monitoring are nowadays based on environmental sensor networks, which continuously collect temperature and humidity data. These solutions are still expensive and do not scale well in large environments. This paper presents an alternative to environmental sensor networks that relies on autonomous mobile robots equipped with environmental sensors. The robots are controlled by a centralized cloud robotics platform that enables autonomous navigation and provides a remote client user interface for system management. From the user point of view, our solution simulates an environmental sensor network. The system can easily be reconfigured in order to adapt to management requirements and changes in the layout of the data center. For this reason, it is called the virtual sensor network. This paper discusses the implementation choices with regards to the particular requirements of the application and presents and discusses data collected during a long-term experiment in a real scenario. PMID:27509505

Updating categorical soil maps using limited survey data by Bayesian Markov chain cosimulation.

PubMed

Li, Weidong; Zhang, Chuanrong; Dey, Dipak K; Willig, Michael R

2013-01-01

Updating categorical soil maps is necessary for providing current, higher-quality soil data to agricultural and environmental management but may not require a costly thorough field survey because latest legacy maps may only need limited corrections. This study suggests a Markov chain random field (MCRF) sequential cosimulation (Co-MCSS) method for updating categorical soil maps using limited survey data provided that qualified legacy maps are available. A case study using synthetic data demonstrates that Co-MCSS can appreciably improve simulation accuracy of soil types with both contributions from a legacy map and limited sample data. The method indicates the following characteristics: (1) if a soil type indicates no change in an update survey or it has been reclassified into another type that similarly evinces no change, it will be simply reproduced in the updated map; (2) if a soil type has changes in some places, it will be simulated with uncertainty quantified by occurrence probability maps; (3) if a soil type has no change in an area but evinces changes in other distant areas, it still can be captured in the area with unobvious uncertainty. We concluded that Co-MCSS might be a practical method for updating categorical soil maps with limited survey data.

Updating Categorical Soil Maps Using Limited Survey Data by Bayesian Markov Chain Cosimulation

PubMed Central

Dey, Dipak K.; Willig, Michael R.

2013-01-01

Updating categorical soil maps is necessary for providing current, higher-quality soil data to agricultural and environmental management but may not require a costly thorough field survey because latest legacy maps may only need limited corrections. This study suggests a Markov chain random field (MCRF) sequential cosimulation (Co-MCSS) method for updating categorical soil maps using limited survey data provided that qualified legacy maps are available. A case study using synthetic data demonstrates that Co-MCSS can appreciably improve simulation accuracy of soil types with both contributions from a legacy map and limited sample data. The method indicates the following characteristics: (1) if a soil type indicates no change in an update survey or it has been reclassified into another type that similarly evinces no change, it will be simply reproduced in the updated map; (2) if a soil type has changes in some places, it will be simulated with uncertainty quantified by occurrence probability maps; (3) if a soil type has no change in an area but evinces changes in other distant areas, it still can be captured in the area with unobvious uncertainty. We concluded that Co-MCSS might be a practical method for updating categorical soil maps with limited survey data. PMID:24027447

Why we shouldn't underestimate the impact of plant functional diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groner, V.; Raddatz, T.; Reick, C. H.; Claussen, M.

2017-12-01

We present a series of coupled land-atmosphere simulations with different combinations of plant functional types (PFTs) from mid-Holocene to preindustrial to show how plant functional diversity affects simulated climate-vegetation interaction under changing environmental conditions in subtropical Africa. Scientists nowadays agree that the establishment of the ``green'' Sahara was triggered by external changes in the Earth's orbit and amplified by internal feedback mechanisms. The timing and abruptness of the transition to the ``desert'' state are in turn still under debate. While some previous studies indicated an abrupt collapse of vegetation implying a strong climate-vegetation feedback, others suggested a gradual vegetation decline thereby questioning the existence of a strong climate-vegetation feedback. However, none of these studies explicitly accounted for the role of plant diversity. We show that the introduction or removal of a single PFT can bring about significant impacts on the simulated climate-vegetation system response to changing orbital forcing. While simulations with the standard set of PFTs show a gradual decrease of precipitation and vegetation cover over time, the reduction of plant functional diversity can cause either an abrupt decline of both variables or an even slower response to the external forcing. PFT composition seems to be the decisive factor for the system response to external forcing, and an increase in plant functional diversity does not necessarily increase the stability of the climate-vegetation system. From this we conclude that accounting for plant functional diversity in future studies - not only on palaeo climates - could significantly improve the understanding of climate-vegetation interaction in semi-arid regions, the predictability of the vegetation response to changing climate, and respectively, of the resulting feedback on precipitation.

2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 2: Environmental Sustainability Effects of Select Scenarios from Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Langholtz, Matthew H.

With the goal of understanding environmental effects of a growing bioeconomy, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), national laboratories, and U.S. Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, undertook a study to estimate environmental effects of potential biomass production scenarios in the United States, with an emphasis on agricultural and forest biomass. Potential effects investigated include changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water quality and quantity, air emissions, and biodiversity. Effects of altered land-management regimes were analyzed based on select county-level biomass-production scenarios for 2017 and 2040 taken from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report:more » Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (BT16), volume 1, which assumes that the land bases for agricultural and forestry would not change over time. The scenarios reflect constraints on biomass supply (e.g., excluded areas; implementation of management practices; and consideration of food, feed, forage, and fiber demands and exports) that intend to address sustainability concerns. Nonetheless, both beneficial and adverse environmental effects might be expected. To characterize these potential effects, this research sought to estimate where and under what modeled scenarios or conditions positive and negative environmental effects could occur nationwide. The report also includes a discussion of land-use change (LUC) (i.e., land management change) assumptions associated with the scenario transitions (but not including analysis of indirect LUC [ILUC]), analyses of climate sensitivity of feedstock productivity under a set of potential scenarios, and a qualitative environmental effects analysis of algae production under carbon dioxide (CO2) co-location scenarios. Because BT16 biomass supplies are simulated independent of a defined end use, most analyses do not include benefits from displacing fossil fuels or other products, with the exception of including a few illustrative cases on potential reductions in GHG emissions and fossil energy consumption associated with using biomass supplies for fuel, power, heat, and chemicals.« less

Co-evolutionary dynamics of the human-environment system in the Heihe River basin in the past 2000years.

PubMed

Lu, Zhixiang; Wei, Yongping; Feng, Qi; Xie, Jiali; Xiao, Honglang; Cheng, Guodong

2018-09-01

There is limited quantitative understanding of interactions between human and environmental systems over the millennial scale. We aim to reveal the co-evolutionary dynamics of the human-environment system in a river basin by simulating the water use and net primary production (NPP) allocation for human and environmental systems over the last 2000years in Heihe River basin (HRB) in northwest China. We partition the catchment total evapotranspiration (ET) into ET for human and environmental systems with a social-hydrological framework and estimate the NPP for human and environmental systems using the Box-Lieth model, then classify the co-evolutionary processes of the human-environment system into distinct phases using the rate of changes of NPP over time, and discover the trade-offs or synergies relationships between them based on the elasticity of change of the NPP for humans to the change of NPP for environment. The co-evolutionary dynamics of human-environment system in the HRB can be divided into four periods, including: Phase I (Han Dynasty-Yuan Dynasty): predevelopment characterized by nearly no trade-offs between human and environment; Phase II (Yuan Dynasty-RC): slow agricultural development: characterized by a small human win due to small trade-offs between human and environment; Phase III (RC-2000): rapid agricultural development: characterized by a large human win due to large trade-offs between human and environment, and Phase IV (2000-2010): a rebalance characterized by large human wins with a small-environment win due to synergies, although these occurred very occasionally. This study provides a quantitative approach to describe the co-evolution of the human-environment system from the perspective of trade-offs and synergies in the millennial scale for the first time. The relationships between humans and environment changed from trade-off to synergy with the implementation of the water reallocation scheme in 2000. These findings improve the understanding of how humans influence environmental systems and responses to environmental stresses. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How well do terrestrial biosphere models simulate coarse-scale runoff in the contiguous United States?

DOE PAGES

Schwalm, C.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Cook, Robert B.; ...

2015-03-11

Significant changes in the water cycle are expected under current global environmental change. Robust assessment of present-day water cycle dynamics at continental to global scales is confounded by shortcomings in the observed record. Modeled assessments also yield conflicting results which are linked to differences in model structure and simulation protocol. Here we compare simulated gridded (1 spatial resolution) runoff from six terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), seven reanalysis products, and one gridded surface station product in the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2001 to 2005. We evaluate the consistency of these 14 estimates with stream gauge data, both as depleted flowmore » and corrected for net withdrawals (2005 only), at the CONUS and water resource region scale, as well as examining similarity across TBMs and reanalysis products at the grid cell scale. Mean runoff across all simulated products and regions varies widely (range: 71 to 356 mm yr(-1)) relative to observed continental-scale runoff (209 or 280 mm yr(-1) when corrected for net withdrawals). Across all 14 products 8 exhibit Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values in excess of 0.8 and three are within 10% of the observed value. Region-level mismatch exhibits a weak pattern of overestimation in western and underestimation in eastern regions although two products are systematically biased across all regions and largely scales with water use. Although gridded composite TBM and reanalysis runoff show some regional similarities, individual product values are highly variable. At the coarse scales used here we find that progress in better constraining simulated runoff requires standardized forcing data and the explicit incorporation of human effects (e.g., water withdrawals by source, fire, and land use change). (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.« less

Climate Envelope Modeling and Dispersal Simulations Show Little Risk of Range Extension of the Shipworm, Teredo navalis (L.), in the Baltic Sea

PubMed Central

Appelqvist, Christin; Al-Hamdani, Zyad K.; Jonsson, Per R.; Havenhand, Jon N.

2015-01-01

The shipworm, Teredo navalis, is absent from most of the Baltic Sea. In the last 20 years, increased frequency of T. navalis has been reported along the southern Baltic Sea coasts of Denmark, Germany, and Sweden, indicating possible range-extensions into previously unoccupied areas. We evaluated the effects of historical and projected near-future changes in salinity, temperature, and oxygen on the risk of spread of T. navalis in the Baltic. Specifically, we developed a simple, GIS-based, mechanistic climate envelope model to predict the spatial distribution of favourable conditions for adult reproduction and larval metamorphosis of T. navalis, based on published environmental tolerances to these factors. In addition, we used a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrographic model to simulate the probability of spread of T. navalis larvae within the study area. Climate envelope modeling showed that projected near-future climate change is not likely to change the overall distribution of T. navalis in the region, but will prolong the breeding season and increase the risk of shipworm establishment at the margins of the current range. Dispersal simulations indicated that the majority of larvae were philopatric, but those that spread over a wider area typically spread to areas unfavourable for their survival. Overall, therefore, we found no substantive evidence for climate-change related shifts in the distribution of T. navalis in the Baltic Sea, and no evidence for increased risk of spread in the near-future. PMID:25768305

Baby, it's cold outside: Climate model simulations of the effects of the asteroid impact at the end of the Cretaceous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brugger, Julia; Feulner, Georg; Petri, Stefan

2017-01-01

Sixty-six million years ago, the end-Cretaceous mass extinction ended the reign of the dinosaurs. Flood basalt eruptions and an asteroid impact are widely discussed causes, yet their contributions remain debated. Modeling the environmental changes after the Chicxulub impact can shed light on this question. Existing studies, however, focused on the effect of dust or used one-dimensional, noncoupled atmosphere models. Here we explore the longer-lasting cooling due to sulfate aerosols using a coupled climate model. Depending on aerosol stratospheric residence time, global annual mean surface air temperature decreased by at least 26°C, with 3 to 16 years subfreezing temperatures and a recovery time larger than 30 years. The surface cooling triggered vigorous ocean mixing which could have resulted in a plankton bloom due to upwelling of nutrients. These dramatic environmental changes suggest a pivotal role of the impact in the end-Cretaceous extinction.

Light, temperature, and leaf nitrogen distribution in the tropical rain forest of Biosphere 2 and their importance in the mathematical models for global environmental changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tohda, Motofumi

1997-01-01

As the environmental changes occur throughout the world in rapid rate, we need to have further understandings for our planet. Since the ecosystems are so complex, it is almost impossible for us to integrate every factor. However, mathematical models are powerful tools which can be used to simulate those ecosystems with limited data. In this project, I collected light intensity, canopy leaf temperature and Air Handler (AHU) temperature, and nitrogen concentration in the leaves for different profiles in the rainforest mesocosm. These data will later be put into mathematical models such as "big-leaf" and "sun/shade" models to determine how these factors will affect CO2 exchange in the rainforest. As rainforests are diminishing from our planet and their existence is very important for all living things on earth, it is necessary for us to learn more about the unique system of rainforests and how we can co-exist rather than destroy.

Multimodel inference to quantify the relative importance of abiotic factors in the population dynamics of marine zooplankton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Everaert, Gert; Deschutter, Yana; De Troch, Marleen; Janssen, Colin R.; De Schamphelaere, Karel

2018-05-01

The effect of multiple stressors on marine ecosystems remains poorly understood and most of the knowledge available is related to phytoplankton. To partly address this knowledge gap, we tested if combining multimodel inference with generalized additive modelling could quantify the relative contribution of environmental variables on the population dynamics of a zooplankton species in the Belgian part of the North Sea. Hence, we have quantified the relative contribution of oceanographic variables (e.g. water temperature, salinity, nutrient concentrations, and chlorophyll a concentrations) and anthropogenic chemicals (i.e. polychlorinated biphenyls) to the density of Acartia clausi. We found that models with water temperature and chlorophyll a concentration explained ca. 73% of the population density of the marine copepod. Multimodel inference in combination with regression-based models are a generic way to disentangle and quantify multiple stressor-induced changes in marine ecosystems. Future-oriented simulations of copepod densities suggested increased copepod densities under predicted environmental changes.

Experimental resource pulses influence social-network dynamics and the potential for information flow in tool-using crows

PubMed Central

St Clair, James J. H.; Burns, Zackory T.; Bettaney, Elaine M.; Morrissey, Michael B.; Otis, Brian; Ryder, Thomas B.; Fleischer, Robert C.; James, Richard; Rutz, Christian

2015-01-01

Social-network dynamics have profound consequences for biological processes such as information flow, but are notoriously difficult to measure in the wild. We used novel transceiver technology to chart association patterns across 19 days in a wild population of the New Caledonian crow—a tool-using species that may socially learn, and culturally accumulate, tool-related information. To examine the causes and consequences of changing network topology, we manipulated the environmental availability of the crows' preferred tool-extracted prey, and simulated, in silico, the diffusion of information across field-recorded time-ordered networks. Here we show that network structure responds quickly to environmental change and that novel information can potentially spread rapidly within multi-family communities, especially when tool-use opportunities are plentiful. At the same time, we report surprisingly limited social contact between neighbouring crow communities. Such scale dependence in information-flow dynamics is likely to influence the evolution and maintenance of material cultures. PMID:26529116

Late Cretaceous restructuring of terrestrial communities facilitated the end-Cretaceous mass extinction in North America.

PubMed

Mitchell, Jonathan S; Roopnarine, Peter D; Angielczyk, Kenneth D

2012-11-13

The sudden environmental catastrophe in the wake of the end-Cretaceous asteroid impact had drastic effects that rippled through animal communities. To explore how these effects may have been exacerbated by prior ecological changes, we used a food-web model to simulate the effects of primary productivity disruptions, such as those predicted to result from an asteroid impact, on ten Campanian and seven Maastrichtian terrestrial localities in North America. Our analysis documents that a shift in trophic structure between Campanian and Maastrichtian communities in North America led Maastrichtian communities to experience more secondary extinction at lower levels of primary production shutdown and possess a lower collapse threshold than Campanian communities. Of particular note is the fact that changes in dinosaur richness had a negative impact on the robustness of Maastrichtian ecosystems against environmental perturbations. Therefore, earlier ecological restructuring may have exacerbated the impact and severity of the end-Cretaceous extinction, at least in North America.

Late Cretaceous restructuring of terrestrial communities facilitated the end-Cretaceous mass extinction in North America

PubMed Central

Roopnarine, Peter D.; Angielczyk, Kenneth D.

2012-01-01

The sudden environmental catastrophe in the wake of the end-Cretaceous asteroid impact had drastic effects that rippled through animal communities. To explore how these effects may have been exacerbated by prior ecological changes, we used a food-web model to simulate the effects of primary productivity disruptions, such as those predicted to result from an asteroid impact, on ten Campanian and seven Maastrichtian terrestrial localities in North America. Our analysis documents that a shift in trophic structure between Campanian and Maastrichtian communities in North America led Maastrichtian communities to experience more secondary extinction at lower levels of primary production shutdown and possess a lower collapse threshold than Campanian communities. Of particular note is the fact that changes in dinosaur richness had a negative impact on the robustness of Maastrichtian ecosystems against environmental perturbations. Therefore, earlier ecological restructuring may have exacerbated the impact and severity of the end-Cretaceous extinction, at least in North America. PMID:23112149

Community assembly rules affect the diversity of expanding communities.

PubMed

Peng, Zechen; Zhou, Shurong

2014-11-01

Despite centuries of interest in species range limits, few studies have taken a whole community into consideration. Actually, multiple species may simultaneously respond to environmental changes, for example, global warming, leading a series of dynamical communities toward the advancing front. We investigated multiple species range expansions through the analysis of a two-species dispersion model and simulations of multiple species assemblages regulated by neutral and fecundity-survival trade-offs (FSTs), respectively, and found that species assemblages regulated by different mechanisms would initiate different expanding patterns in geographic ranges in response to environmental changes. The neutral model generally predicts a higher biodiversity near the core of an expanding range, and a lower community similarity compared with a FST model. Without considering the evolution of life history traits, an assortment of the reproduction ability happens at the advancing front under FSTs at the expense of a higher death rate or lower competitive ability. These results emphasize the importance of community assembly rules to the biodiversity maintenance of range expanding communities.

Reducing the uncertainty of parameters controlling seasonal carbon and water fluxes in Chinese forests and its implication for simulated climate sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yue; Yang, Hui; Wang, Tao; MacBean, Natasha; Bacour, Cédric; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yiping; Zhou, Guangsheng; Piao, Shilong

2017-08-01

Reducing parameter uncertainty of process-based terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) is one of the primary targets for accurately estimating carbon budgets and predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. However, parameters in TEMs are rarely constrained by observations from Chinese forest ecosystems, which are important carbon sink over the northern hemispheric land. In this study, eddy covariance data from six forest sites in China are used to optimize parameters of the ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamics EcosystEms TEM. The model-data assimilation through parameter optimization largely reduces the prior model errors and improves the simulated seasonal cycle and summer diurnal cycle of net ecosystem exchange, latent heat fluxes, and gross primary production and ecosystem respiration. Climate change experiments based on the optimized model are deployed to indicate that forest net primary production (NPP) is suppressed in response to warming in the southern China but stimulated in the northeastern China. Altered precipitation has an asymmetric impact on forest NPP at sites in water-limited regions, with the optimization-induced reduction in response of NPP to precipitation decline being as large as 61% at a deciduous broadleaf forest site. We find that seasonal optimization alters forest carbon cycle responses to environmental change, with the parameter optimization consistently reducing the simulated positive response of heterotrophic respiration to warming. Evaluations from independent observations suggest that improving model structure still matters most for long-term carbon stock and its changes, in particular, nutrient- and age-related changes of photosynthetic rates, carbon allocation, and tree mortality.

26th Space Simulation Conference Proceedings. Environmental Testing: The Path Forward

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Packard, Edward A.

2010-01-01

Topics covered include: A Multifunctional Space Environment Simulation Facility for Accelerated Spacecraft Materials Testing; Exposure of Spacecraft Surface Coatings in a Simulated GEO Radiation Environment; Gravity-Offloading System for Large-Displacement Ground Testing of Spacecraft Mechanisms; Microscopic Shutters Controlled by cRIO in Sounding Rocket; Application of a Physics-Based Stabilization Criterion to Flight System Thermal Testing; Upgrade of a Thermal Vacuum Chamber for 20 Kelvin Operations; A New Approach to Improve the Uniformity of Solar Simulator; A Perfect Space Simulation Storm; A Planetary Environmental Simulator/Test Facility; Collimation Mirror Segment Refurbishment inside ESA s Large Space; Space Simulation of the CBERS 3 and 4 Satellite Thermal Model in the New Brazilian 6x8m Thermal Vacuum Chamber; The Certification of Environmental Chambers for Testing Flight Hardware; Space Systems Environmental Test Facility Database (SSETFD), Website Development Status; Wallops Flight Facility: Current and Future Test Capabilities for Suborbital and Orbital Projects; Force Limited Vibration Testing of JWST NIRSpec Instrument Using Strain Gages; Investigation of Acoustic Field Uniformity in Direct Field Acoustic Testing; Recent Developments in Direct Field Acoustic Testing; Assembly, Integration and Test Centre in Malaysia: Integration between Building Construction Works and Equipment Installation; Complex Ground Support Equipment for Satellite Thermal Vacuum Test; Effect of Charging Electron Exposure on 1064nm Transmission through Bare Sapphire Optics and SiO2 over HfO2 AR-Coated Sapphire Optics; Environmental Testing Activities and Capabilities for Turkish Space Industry; Integrated Circuit Reliability Simulation in Space Environments; Micrometeoroid Impacts and Optical Scatter in Space Environment; Overcoming Unintended Consequences of Ambient Pressure Thermal Cycling Environmental Tests; Performance and Functionality Improvements to Next Generation Thermal Vacuum Control System; Robotic Lunar Lander Development Project: Three-Dimensional Dynamic Stability Testing and Analysis; Thermal Physical Properties of Thermal Coatings for Spacecraft in Wide Range of Environmental Conditions: Experimental and Theoretical Study; Molecular Contamination Generated in Thermal Vacuum Chambers; Preventing Cross Contamination of Hardware in Thermal Vacuum Chambers; Towards Validation of Particulate Transport Code; Updated Trends in Materials' Outgassing Technology; Electrical Power and Data Acquisition Setup for the CBER 3 and 4 Satellite TBT; Method of Obtaining High Resolution Intrinsic Wire Boom Damping Parameters for Multi-Body Dynamics Simulations; and Thermal Vacuum Testing with Scalable Software Developed In-House.

Biofuel Induced Land Use Change effects on Watershed Hydrology and Water Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaubey, I.; Cibin, R.; Frankenberger, J.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Volenec, J. J.; Brouder, S. M.

2015-12-01

High yielding perennial grasses such as Miscanthus and switchgrass, and crop residues such as corn stover are expected to play a significant role in meeting US biofuel production targets. We have evaluated the potential impacts of biofuel induced land use changes on hydrology, water quality, and ecosystem services. The bioenergy production scenarios, included: production of Miscanthus × giganteus and switchgrass on highly erodible landscape positions, agricultural marginal land areas, and pastures; removal of corn stover at various rates; and combinations of these scenarios. The hydrology and water quality impacts of land use change scenarios were estimated for two watersheds in Midwest USA (1) Wildcat Creek watershed (drainage area of 2,083 km2) located in north-central Indiana and (2) St. Joseph River watershed (drainage area of 2,809 km2) located in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. We have also simulated the impacts of climate change and variability on environmental sustainability and have compared climate change impacts with land use change impacts. The study results indicated improved water quality with perennial grass scenarios compared to current row crop production impacts. Erosion reduction with perennial energy crop production scenarios ranged between 0.2% and 59%. Stream flow at the watershed outlet were reduced between 0.2 and 8% among various bioenergy crop production scenarios. Stover removal scenarios indicated increased erosion compared to baseline condition due reduced soil cover after stover harvest. Stream flow and nitrate loading were reduced with stover removal due to increased soil evaporation and reduced mineralization. A comparison of land use and climate change impacts indicates that land use changes will have considerably larger impacts on hydrology, water quality and environmental sustainability compared to climate change and variability. Our results indicate that production of biofuel crops can be optimized at the landscape level to provide adequate supply of biomass while improving water quality and environmental sustainability.

SIMULATION MODELS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MULTIMEDIA ANALYSIS OF TOXIC CHEMICALS

EPA Science Inventory

Multimedia understanding of pollutant behavior in the environment is of particular concern for chemicals that are toxic and are subject to accumulation in the environmental media (air, soil, water, vegetation) where biota and human exposure is significant. Multimedia simulation ...

Maintaining environmental quality while expanding biomass production: Sub-regional U.S. policy simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso; Swinton, S.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.

2013-03-01

This paper evaluates environmental policy effects on ligno-cellulosic biomass production and environ- mental outcomes using an integrated bioeconomic optimization model. The environmental policy integrated climate (EPIC) model is used to simulate crop yields and environmental indicators in current and future potential bioenergy cropping systems based on weather, topographic and soil data. The crop yield and environmental outcome parameters from EPIC are combined with biomass transport costs and economic parameters in a representative farmer profit-maximizing mathematical optimization model. The model is used to predict the impact of alternative policies on biomass production and environmental outcomes. We find that without environmental policy,more » rising biomass prices initially trigger production of annual crop residues, resulting in increased greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, and nutrient losses to surface and ground water. At higher biomass prices, perennial bioenergy crops replace annual crop residues as biomass sources, resulting in lower environmental impacts. Simulations of three environmental policies namely a carbon price, a no-till area subsidy, and a fertilizer tax reveal that only the carbon price policy systematically mitigates environmental impacts. The fertilizer tax is ineffectual and too costly to farmers. The no-till subsidy is effective only at low biomass prices and is too costly to government.« less

The economic value of the flow regulation environmental service in a Brazilian urban watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, Guilherme F.; de Souza, Verônica B. F. S.; Moraes, Natália V.

2017-11-01

Urban flood management have often focused either on the capacity expansion of drainage systems or on artificial detention storage. While flood control should take part early on urban planning, not enough is known to guide such plans and provide incentive to land use decisions that minimize the vulnerability to localized floods. In this paper, we offer a broader perspective on flood protection, by treating the original hydrologic flow regulation as an environmental service, and exploring how the value of this environmental service drives economic land use decisions that convert original (permeable) land into urbanized (impermeable). We investigate the relationship between land use decisions and their hydrologic consequences explicitly, and use this relationship to simulate resulting land use scenarios depending on the value attached to the environmental service of flow regulation. Rainfall-runoff simulation model results are combined to an optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming approach to model economic land use decisions. The objective function maximizes the total expected land use benefit in an urban area, considering the opportunity cost of permeable areas in the first stage and the resulting loss of the environmental service of flow regulation on the second stage, under several probable hydrological events. A watershed in the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil, is used to demonstrate the approach. Different values attached to the environmental service were tested, from zero to higher than the opportunity cost of land, and artificial detention infrastructure was included to calculate the resulting land use change and the loss in the environmental service value. Results indicate that by valuing the environmental service loss and discounting it from the economic benefits of land use, alternative solutions to land use are found, with decreased peak flows and lower flood frequency. Combined solutions including structural and non-structural techniques provide more cost effective results, avoiding both the depletion of the environmental service and the high opportunity cost associated to valuable commercial urban areas. Urban development under such premises will be more resilient and adapted to local flooding, instead of relying on increasingly expensive infrastructure.

The effects of environmental conditions on the enrichment of antibiotics on microplastics in simulated natural water column.

PubMed

Shen, Xian-Cheng; Li, De-Chang; Sima, Xiao-Feng; Cheng, Hui-Yuan; Jiang, Hong

2018-06-20

Concerns regarding the release of microplastics (MPs) into the environment led us to explore the relationship between the different environmental factors and physicochemical properties of MPs, as well as the change of interaction between MPs and organic pollutants. In this study, the effects of environmental factors (ageing conditions), such as pH, temperature, ionic strength, ageing time, and humic acid (HA) concentration, on the characteristics of MPs and their adsorption toward tetracycline (TC) were systematically investigated. The results showed that ageing factors such as pH, ionic strength, and temperature were found to have little impact on the adsorptive capacity of MPs for TC. However, MPs aged in HA solution exhibited a significant decreased adsorptive capacity for TC. HA, which has numerous functional groups, can cover the surface of MPs and change their hydrophobicity, thereby reducing the adsorption affinity to TC. The electrostatic repulsion between adsorbed HA and TC molecules may also decrease the adsorption of TC. In addition, the competing effect of HA for adsorption sites on the surface of MPs further reduces the adsorption of TC. The data presented in this work provide useful information for understanding the transfer of antibiotics by aged MPs, which is of fundamental importance to assess the environmental impact of MPs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Thermal Gradient Cyclic Behavior of a Thermal/Environmental Barrier Coating System on SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Dongming; Lee, Kang N.; Miller, Robert A.

2002-01-01

Thermal barrier and environmental barrier coatings (TBCs and EBCs) will play a crucial role in future advanced gas turbine engines because of their ability to significantly extend the temperature capability of the ceramic matrix composite (CMC) engine components in harsh combustion environments. In order to develop high performance, robust coating systems for effective thermal and environmental protection of the engine components, appropriate test approaches for evaluating the critical coating properties must be established. In this paper, a laser high-heat-flux, thermal gradient approach for testing the coatings will be described. Thermal cyclic behavior of plasma-sprayed coating systems, consisting of ZrO2-8wt%Y2O3 thermal barrier and NASA Enabling Propulsion Materials (EPM) Program developed mullite+BSAS/Si type environmental barrier coatings on SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composites, was investigated under thermal gradients using the laser heat-flux rig in conjunction with the furnace thermal cyclic tests in water-vapor environments. The coating sintering and interface damage were assessed by monitoring the real-time thermal conductivity changes during the laser heat-flux tests and by examining the microstructural changes after the tests. The coating failure mechanisms are discussed based on the cyclic test results and are correlated to the sintering, creep, and thermal stress behavior under simulated engine temperature and heat flux conditions.

Quantitative Evaluation of the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) for Comparing Herbicides

PubMed Central

Kniss, Andrew R.; Coburn, Carl W.

2015-01-01

Various indicators of pesticide environmental risk have been proposed, and one of the most widely known and used is the environmental impact quotient (EIQ). The EIQ has been criticized by others in the past, but it continues to be used regularly in the weed science literature. The EIQ is typically considered an improvement over simply comparing the amount of herbicides applied by weight. Herbicides are treated differently compared to other pesticide groups when calculating the EIQ, and therefore, it is important to understand how different risk factors affect the EIQ for herbicides. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the suitability of the EIQ as an environmental indicator for herbicides. Simulation analysis was conducted to quantify relative sensitivity of the EIQ to changes in risk factors, and actual herbicide EIQ values were used to quantify the impact of herbicide application rate on the EIQ Field Use Rating. Herbicide use rate was highly correlated with the EIQ Field Use Rating (Spearman’s rho >0.96, P-value <0.001) for two herbicide datasets. Two important risk factors for herbicides, leaching and surface runoff potential, are included in the EIQ calculation but explain less than 1% of total variation in the EIQ. Plant surface half-life was the risk factor with the greatest relative influence on herbicide EIQ, explaining 26 to 28% of the total variation in EIQ for actual and simulated EIQ values, respectively. For herbicides, the plant surface half-life risk factor is assigned values without any supporting quantitative data, and can result in EIQ estimates that are contrary to quantitative risk estimates for some herbicides. In its current form, the EIQ is a poor measure of herbicide environmental impact. PMID:26121252

Quantitative Evaluation of the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) for Comparing Herbicides.

PubMed

Kniss, Andrew R; Coburn, Carl W

2015-01-01

Various indicators of pesticide environmental risk have been proposed, and one of the most widely known and used is the environmental impact quotient (EIQ). The EIQ has been criticized by others in the past, but it continues to be used regularly in the weed science literature. The EIQ is typically considered an improvement over simply comparing the amount of herbicides applied by weight. Herbicides are treated differently compared to other pesticide groups when calculating the EIQ, and therefore, it is important to understand how different risk factors affect the EIQ for herbicides. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the suitability of the EIQ as an environmental indicator for herbicides. Simulation analysis was conducted to quantify relative sensitivity of the EIQ to changes in risk factors, and actual herbicide EIQ values were used to quantify the impact of herbicide application rate on the EIQ Field Use Rating. Herbicide use rate was highly correlated with the EIQ Field Use Rating (Spearman's rho >0.96, P-value <0.001) for two herbicide datasets. Two important risk factors for herbicides, leaching and surface runoff potential, are included in the EIQ calculation but explain less than 1% of total variation in the EIQ. Plant surface half-life was the risk factor with the greatest relative influence on herbicide EIQ, explaining 26 to 28% of the total variation in EIQ for actual and simulated EIQ values, respectively. For herbicides, the plant surface half-life risk factor is assigned values without any supporting quantitative data, and can result in EIQ estimates that are contrary to quantitative risk estimates for some herbicides. In its current form, the EIQ is a poor measure of herbicide environmental impact.

Design and evaluation of a bioreactor with application to forensic burial environments.

PubMed

Dunphy, Melissa A; Weisensee, Katherine E; Mikhailova, Elena A; Harman, Melinda K

2015-12-01

Existing forensic taphonomic methods lack specificity in estimating the postmortem interval (PMI) in the period following active decomposition. New methods, such as the use of citrate concentration in bone, are currently being considered; however, determining the applicability of these methods in differing environmental contexts is challenging. This research aims to design a forensic bioreactor that can account for environmental factors known to impact decomposition, specifically temperature, moisture, physical damage from animals, burial depth, soil pH, and organic matter content. These forensically relevant environmental variables were characterized in a soil science context. The resulting metrics were soil temperature regime, soil moisture regime, slope, texture, soil horizon, cation exchange capacity, soil pH, and organic matter content. Bioreactor chambers were constructed using sterilized thin-walled polystyrene boxes housed in calibrated temperature units. Gravesoil was represented using mineral soil (Ultisols), and organic soil proxy for Histosols, horticulture mix. Gravesoil depth was determined using mineral soil horizons A and Bt2 to simulate surface scatter and shallow grave burial respectively. A total of fourteen different environmental conditions were created and controlled successfully over a 90-day experiment. These results demonstrate successful implementation and control of forensic bioreactor simulating precise environments in a single research location, rather than site-specific testing occurring in different geographic regions. Bone sections were grossly assessed for weathering characteristics, which revealed notable differences related to exposure to different temperature regimes and soil types. Over the short 90-day duration of this experiment, changes in weathering characteristics were more evident across the different temperature regimes rather than the soil types. Using this methodology, bioreactor systems can be created to replicate many different clandestine burial contexts, which will allow for the more rapid understanding of environmental effects on skeletal remains. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socio-hydrologic modeling to understand and mediate the competition for water between agriculture development and environmental health: Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Emmerik, T. H. M.; Li, Z.; Sivapalan, M.; Pande, S.; Kandasamy, J.; Savenije, H. H. G.; Chanan, A.; Vigneswaran, S.

2014-03-01

Competition for water between humans and ecosystems is set to become a flash point in the coming decades in many parts of the world. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling the development of effective mediation strategies. This paper presents a modeling study centered on the Murrumbidgee River Basin (MRB). The MRB has witnessed a unique system dynamics over the last 100 years as a result of interactions between patterns of water management and climate driven hydrological variability. Data analysis has revealed a pendulum swing between agricultural development and restoration of environmental health and ecosystem services over different stages of basin scale water resource development. A parsimonious, stylized, quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that simulates the two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems of the MRB is used to mimic dominant features of the pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations that describe the interaction between five state variables that govern the co-evolution: reservoir storage, irrigated area, human population, ecosystem health, and a measure of environmental awareness. The model simulations track the propagation of the external climatic and socio-economic drivers through this coupled, complex system to the emergence of the pendulum swing. The model results point to a competition between human "productive" and environmental "restorative" forces that underpin the pendulum swing. Both the forces are endogenous, i.e., generated by the system dynamics in response to external drivers and mediated by humans through technology change and environmental awareness, respectively. We propose this as a generalizable modeling framework for coupled human hydrological systems that is potentially transferable to systems in different climatic and socio-economic settings.

On the battleground of environmental and competition policy: The renewable electricity market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meszaros, Matyas Tamas

Renewable energy sources have become increasingly important in the efforts to provide energy security and to fight global warming. In the last decade environmental policy has increased the support for renewable electricity. At the same time the electricity sector was often subject of antitrust investigation because of relevant market concentration, and market power. This dissertation looks at the renewable electricity market to analyze the effect of environmental policy on competition. The first chapter provides a short introduction into the regulatory schemes of electricity markets. The second chapter analyzes the demand side of the electricity market. The estimations show that there was no significant change in the income and price elasticity in the electricity consumption of the US households between 1993 an 2001, although there was several policy initiatives to increase energy efficiency and decrease consumption. The third chapter derives a theoretical model where the feed-in tariff and the tradable green certificate system can be analyzed under oligopolistic market structure. The results of the model suggest that the introduction of the environmentally friendly regulatory schemes can decrease the electricity prices compared to the case when there is no support for renewable energy. The other findings of this model is that the price of electricity rises when the requirement for renewable energy increases. In the fourth chapter a simulation model of the UK electricity market is used to test the effect of mergers and acquisitions under the environmental support scheme. The results emphasize the importance of the capacity limit, because it can constrain the strategic action of the electricity producers. The results of the simulation also suggest that the increasing concentration can increase the production and lower the price of electricity and renewable energy certificates in the British Renewable Obligation system.

Variability within the 10-Year Pollen Rain of a Seasonal Neotropical Forest and Its Implications for Paleoenvironmental and Phenological Research

PubMed Central

Haselhorst, Derek S.; Moreno, J. Enrique; Punyasena, Surangi W.

2013-01-01

Tropical paleoecologists use a combination of mud-water interface and modern pollen rain samples (local samples of airborne pollen) to interpret compositional changes within fossil pollen records. Taxonomic similarities between the composition of modern assemblages and fossil samples are the basis of reconstructing paleoclimates and paleoenvironments. Surface sediment samples reflect a time-averaged accumulation of pollen spanning several years or more. Due to experimental constraints, modern pollen rain samples are generally collected over shorter timeframes (1–3 years) and are therefore less likely to capture the full range of natural variability in pollen rain composition and abundance. This potentially biases paleoenvironmental interpretations based on modern pollen rain transfer functions. To determine the degree to which short-term environmental change affects the composition of the aerial pollen flux of Neotropical forests, we sampled ten years of the seasonal pollen rain from Barro Colorado Island, Panama and compared it to climatic and environmental data over the same ten-year span. We establish that the pollen rain effectively captured the strong seasonality and stratification of pollen flow within the forest canopy and that individual taxa had variable sensitivity to seasonal and annual changes in environmental conditions, manifested as changes in pollen productivity. We conclude that modern pollen rain samples capture the reproductive response of moist tropical plants to short-term environmental change, but that consequently, pollen rain-based calibrations need to include longer sampling periods (≥7 years) to reflect the full range of natural variability in the pollen output of a forest and simulate the time-averaging present in sediment samples. Our results also demonstrate that over the long-term, pollen traps placed in the forest understory are representative samples of the pollen output of both canopy and understory vegetation. Aerial pollen traps, therefore, also represent an underutilized means of monitoring the pollen productivity and reproductive behavior of moist tropical forests. PMID:23320089

Variability within the 10-year pollen rain of a seasonal neotropical forest and its implications for paleoenvironmental and phenological research.

PubMed

Haselhorst, Derek S; Moreno, J Enrique; Punyasena, Surangi W

2013-01-01

Tropical paleoecologists use a combination of mud-water interface and modern pollen rain samples (local samples of airborne pollen) to interpret compositional changes within fossil pollen records. Taxonomic similarities between the composition of modern assemblages and fossil samples are the basis of reconstructing paleoclimates and paleoenvironments. Surface sediment samples reflect a time-averaged accumulation of pollen spanning several years or more. Due to experimental constraints, modern pollen rain samples are generally collected over shorter timeframes (1-3 years) and are therefore less likely to capture the full range of natural variability in pollen rain composition and abundance. This potentially biases paleoenvironmental interpretations based on modern pollen rain transfer functions. To determine the degree to which short-term environmental change affects the composition of the aerial pollen flux of Neotropical forests, we sampled ten years of the seasonal pollen rain from Barro Colorado Island, Panama and compared it to climatic and environmental data over the same ten-year span. We establish that the pollen rain effectively captured the strong seasonality and stratification of pollen flow within the forest canopy and that individual taxa had variable sensitivity to seasonal and annual changes in environmental conditions, manifested as changes in pollen productivity. We conclude that modern pollen rain samples capture the reproductive response of moist tropical plants to short-term environmental change, but that consequently, pollen rain-based calibrations need to include longer sampling periods (≥7 years) to reflect the full range of natural variability in the pollen output of a forest and simulate the time-averaging present in sediment samples. Our results also demonstrate that over the long-term, pollen traps placed in the forest understory are representative samples of the pollen output of both canopy and understory vegetation. Aerial pollen traps, therefore, also represent an underutilized means of monitoring the pollen productivity and reproductive behavior of moist tropical forests.

Computer-aided operations engineering with integrated models of systems and operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Ryan, Dan; Fleming, Land

1994-01-01

CONFIG 3 is a prototype software tool that supports integrated conceptual design evaluation from early in the product life cycle, by supporting isolated or integrated modeling, simulation, and analysis of the function, structure, behavior, failures and operation of system designs. Integration and reuse of models is supported in an object-oriented environment providing capabilities for graph analysis and discrete event simulation. Integration is supported among diverse modeling approaches (component view, configuration or flow path view, and procedure view) and diverse simulation and analysis approaches. Support is provided for integrated engineering in diverse design domains, including mechanical and electro-mechanical systems, distributed computer systems, and chemical processing and transport systems. CONFIG supports abstracted qualitative and symbolic modeling, for early conceptual design. System models are component structure models with operating modes, with embedded time-related behavior models. CONFIG supports failure modeling and modeling of state or configuration changes that result in dynamic changes in dependencies among components. Operations and procedure models are activity structure models that interact with system models. CONFIG is designed to support evaluation of system operability, diagnosability and fault tolerance, and analysis of the development of system effects of problems over time, including faults, failures, and procedural or environmental difficulties.

Architecture and inherent robustness of a bacterial cell-cycle control system.

PubMed

Shen, Xiling; Collier, Justine; Dill, David; Shapiro, Lucy; Horowitz, Mark; McAdams, Harley H

2008-08-12

A closed-loop control system drives progression of the coupled stalked and swarmer cell cycles of the bacterium Caulobacter crescentus in a near-mechanical step-like fashion. The cell-cycle control has a cyclical genetic circuit composed of four regulatory proteins with tight coupling to processive chromosome replication and cell division subsystems. We report a hybrid simulation of the coupled cell-cycle control system, including asymmetric cell division and responses to external starvation signals, that replicates mRNA and protein concentration patterns and is consistent with observed mutant phenotypes. An asynchronous sequential digital circuit model equivalent to the validated simulation model was created. Formal model-checking analysis of the digital circuit showed that the cell-cycle control is robust to intrinsic stochastic variations in reaction rates and nutrient supply, and that it reliably stops and restarts to accommodate nutrient starvation. Model checking also showed that mechanisms involving methylation-state changes in regulatory promoter regions during DNA replication increase the robustness of the cell-cycle control. The hybrid cell-cycle simulation implementation is inherently extensible and provides a promising approach for development of whole-cell behavioral models that can replicate the observed functionality of the cell and its responses to changing environmental conditions.

Dielectric properties of proteins from simulation: the effects of solvent, ligands, pH, and temperature.

PubMed

Pitera, J W; Falta, M; van Gunsteren, W F

2001-06-01

We have used a standard Fröhlich-Kirkwood dipole moment fluctuation model to calculate the static dielectric permittivity, epsilon(0), for four different proteins, each of which was simulated under at least two different conditions of pH, temperature, solvation, or ligand binding. For the range of proteins and conditions studied, we calculate values for epsilon(0) between 15 and 40. Our results show, in agreement with prior work, that the behavior of charged residues is the primary determinant of the effective permittivity. Furthermore, only environmental changes that alter the properties of charged residues exert a significant effect on epsilon. In contrast, buried water molecules or ligands have little or no effect on protein dielectric properties.

Predicting the Responses of Soil Nitrite-Oxidizers to Multi-Factorial Global Change: A Trait-Based Approach

DOE PAGES

Le Roux, Xavier; Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Niboyet, Audrey; ...

2016-05-17

Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil functions to global change. Here, using a long-term field experiment in a California grassland, we studied the main and interactive effects of three global change factors (increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen addition, and all their factorial combinations, based on global change scenarios for central California) on the potential activity, abundancemore » and dominant taxa of soil nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB). Using a trait-based model, we then tested whether categorizing NOB into a few functional groups unified by physiological traits enables understanding and predicting how soil NOB respond to global environmental change. Contrasted responses to global change treatments were observed between three main NOB functional types. In particular, putatively mixotrophic Nitrobacter, rare under most treatments, became dominant under the 'High CO 2 +Nitrogen+Precipitation' treatment. The mechanistic trait-based model, which simulated ecological niches of NOB types consistent with previous ecophysiological reports, helped predicting the observed effects of global change on NOB and elucidating the underlying biotic and abiotic controls. Our results are a starting point for representing the overwhelming diversity of soil bacteria by a few functional types that can be incorporated into models of terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical processes.« less

Predicting the Responses of Soil Nitrite-Oxidizers to Multi-Factorial Global Change: A Trait-Based Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Roux, Xavier; Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Niboyet, Audrey

Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil functions to global change. Here, using a long-term field experiment in a California grassland, we studied the main and interactive effects of three global change factors (increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen addition, and all their factorial combinations, based on global change scenarios for central California) on the potential activity, abundancemore » and dominant taxa of soil nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB). Using a trait-based model, we then tested whether categorizing NOB into a few functional groups unified by physiological traits enables understanding and predicting how soil NOB respond to global environmental change. Contrasted responses to global change treatments were observed between three main NOB functional types. In particular, putatively mixotrophic Nitrobacter, rare under most treatments, became dominant under the 'High CO 2 +Nitrogen+Precipitation' treatment. The mechanistic trait-based model, which simulated ecological niches of NOB types consistent with previous ecophysiological reports, helped predicting the observed effects of global change on NOB and elucidating the underlying biotic and abiotic controls. Our results are a starting point for representing the overwhelming diversity of soil bacteria by a few functional types that can be incorporated into models of terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical processes.« less

Global change impacts on wheat production along an environmental gradient in south Australia.

PubMed

Reyenga, P J; Howden, S M; Meinke, H; Hall, W B

2001-09-01

Crop production is likely to change in the future as a result of global changes in CO2 levels in the atmosphere and climate. APSIM, a cropping system model, was used to investigate the potential impact of these changes on the distribution of cropping along an environmental transect in south Australia. The effects of several global change scenarios were studied, including: (1) historical climate and CO2 levels, (2) historic climate with elevated CO2 (700 ppm), (3) warmer climate (+2.4 degrees C) +700 ppm CO2, (4) drier climate (-15% summer, -20% winter rainfall) +2.4 degrees C +700 ppm CO2, (5) wetter climate (+10% summer rainfall) +2.4 degrees C +700 ppm CO2 and (6) most likely climate changes (+1.8 degrees C, -8% annual rainfall) +700 ppm CO2. Based on an analysis of the current cropping boundary, a criterion of 1 t/ha was used to assess potential changes in the boundary under global change. Under most scenarios, the cropping boundary moved northwards with a further 240,000 ha potentially being available for cropping. The exception was the reduced rainfall scenario (4), which resulted in a small retreat of cropping from its current extent. However, the impact of this scenario may only be small (in the order of 10,000-20,000 ha reduction in cropping area). Increases in CO2 levels over the current climate record have resulted in small but significant increases in simulated yields. Model limitations are discussed.

Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs.

PubMed

Springer, Andrea; Kappeler, Peter M; Nunn, Charles L

2017-05-01

Social networks provide an established tool to implement heterogeneous contact structures in epidemiological models. Dynamic temporal changes in contact structure and ranging behaviour of wildlife may impact disease dynamics. A consensus has yet to emerge, however, concerning the conditions in which network dynamics impact model outcomes, as compared to static approximations that average contact rates over longer time periods. Furthermore, as many pathogens can be transmitted both environmentally and via close contact, it is important to investigate the relative influence of both transmission routes in real-world populations. Here, we use empirically derived networks from a population of wild primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi), and simulated networks to investigate pathogen spread in dynamic vs. static social networks. First, we constructed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model of Cryptosporidium spread in wild Verreaux's sifakas. We incorporated social and environmental transmission routes and parameterized the model for two different climatic seasons. Second, we used simulated networks and greater variation in epidemiological parameters to investigate the conditions in which dynamic networks produce larger outbreak sizes than static networks. We found that average outbreak size of Cryptosporidium infections in sifakas was larger when the disease was introduced in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by an increase in home range overlap towards the end of the dry season. Regardless of season, dynamic networks always produced larger average outbreak sizes than static networks. Larger outbreaks in dynamic models based on simulated networks occurred especially when the probability of transmission and recovery were low. Variation in tie strength in the dynamic networks also had a major impact on outbreak size, while network modularity had a weaker influence than epidemiological parameters that determine transmission and recovery. Our study adds to emerging evidence that dynamic networks can change predictions of disease dynamics, especially if the disease shows low transmissibility and a long infectious period, and when environmental conditions lead to enhanced between-group contact after an infectious agent has been introduced. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

A stream-scale model to optimize the water allocation for Small Hydropower Plants and the application to traditional systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razurel, Pierre; Niayifar, Amin; Perona, Paolo

2017-04-01

Hydropower plays an important role in supplying worldwide energy demand where it contributes to approximately 16% of global electricity production. Although hydropower, as an emission-free renewable energy, is a reliable source of energy to mitigate climate change, its development will increase river exploitation. The environmental impacts associated with both small hydropower plants (SHP) and traditional dammed systems have been found to the consequence of changing natural flow regime with other release policies, e.g. the minimal flow. Nowadays, in some countries, proportional allocation rules are also applied aiming to mimic the natural flow variability. For example, these dynamic rules are part of the environmental guidance in the United Kingdom and constitute an improvement in comparison to static rules. In a context in which the full hydropower potential might be reached in a close future, a solution to optimize the water allocation seems essential. In this work, we present a model that enables to simulate a wide range of water allocation rules (static and dynamic) for a specific hydropower plant and to evaluate their associated economic and ecological benefits. It is developed in the form of a graphical user interface (GUI) where, depending on the specific type of hydropower plant (i.e., SHP or traditional dammed system), the user is able to specify the different characteristics (e.g., hydrological data and turbine characteristics) of the studied system. As an alternative to commonly used policies, a new class of dynamic allocation functions (non-proportional repartition rules) is introduced (e.g., Razurel et al., 2016). The efficiency plot resulting from the simulations shows the environmental indicator and the energy produced for each allocation policies. The optimal water distribution rules can be identified on the Pareto's frontier, which is obtained by stochastic optimization in the case of storage systems (e.g., Niayifar and Perona, submitted) and by direct simulation for small hydropower ones (Razurel et al., 2016). Compared to proportional and constant minimal flows, economic and ecological efficiencies are found to be substantially improved in the case of using non-proportional water allocation rules for both SHP and traditional systems.

Modeling the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Streamflow in the Delaware River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, P. Y. S.; Endreny, T. A.; Kroll, C. N.; Williamson, T. N.

2014-12-01

Forest-cover loss and drinking-water reservoirs in the upper Delaware River Basin of New York may alter summer low streamflows, which could degrade the in-stream habitat for the endangered dwarf wedgemussel. Our project analyzes how flow statistics change with land-cover change for 30-year increments of model-simulated streamflow hydrographs for three watersheds of concern to the National Park Service: the East Branch, West Branch, and main stem of the Delaware River. We use four treatments for land cover ranging from historical high to low forest cover. We subject each land cover to adjusted GCM climate scenarios for 1600, 1900, 1940, and 2040 to isolate land cover from potential climate-change effects. Hydrographs are simulated using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER), a TOPMODEL-based United States Geological Survey hydrologic decision-support tool, which uses the variable-source-area concept and water budgets to generate streamflow. Model parameters for each watershed change with land-use, and capture differences in soil-physical properties that control how rainfall infiltrates, evaporates, transpires, is stored in the soil, and moves to the stream. Our results analyze flow statistics used as indicators of hydrologic alteration, and access streamflow events below the critical flow needed to provide sustainable habitat for dwarf wedgemussels. These metrics will demonstrate how changes in climate and land use might affect flow statistics. Initial results show that the 1940 WATER simulation outputs generally match observed unregulated low flows from that time period, while performance for regulated flow from the same time period and from 1600, 1900, and 2040 require model input adjustments. Our study will illustrate how increased forest cover could potentially restore in-stream habitat for the endangered dwarf wedgemussel for current and future climate conditions.

Temporal Variations of Water Productivity in Irrigated Corn: An Analysis of Factors Influencing Yield and Water Use across Central Nebraska

PubMed Central

Carr, Tony; Yang, Haishun; Ray, Chittaranjan

2016-01-01

Water Productivity (WP) of a crop defines the relationship between the economic or physical yield of the crop and its water use. With this concept it is possible to identify disproportionate water use or water-limited yield gaps and thereby support improvements in agricultural water management. However, too often important qualitative and quantitative environmental factors are not part of a WP analysis and therefore neglect the aspect of maintaining a sustainable agricultural system. In this study, we examine both the physical and economic WP in perspective with temporally changing environmental conditions. The physical WP analysis was performed by comparing simulated maximum attainable corn yields per unit of water using the crop model Hybrid-Maize with observed data from 2005 through 2013 from 108 farm plots in the Central Platte and the Tri Basin Natural Resource Districts of Nebraska. In order to expand the WP analysis on external factors influencing yields, a second model, Maize-N, was used to estimate optimal nitrogen (N)–fertilizer rate for specific fields in the study area. Finally, a vadose zone flow and transport model, HYDRUS-1D for simulating vertical nutrient transport in the soil, was used to estimate locations of nitrogen pulses in the soil profile. The comparison of simulated and observed data revealed that WP was not on an optimal level, mainly due to large amounts of irrigation used in the study area. The further analysis illustrated year-to-year variations of WP during the nine consecutive years, as well as the need to improve fertilizer management to favor WP and environmental quality. In addition, we addressed the negative influence of groundwater depletion on the economic WP through increasing pumping costs. In summary, this study demonstrated that involving temporal variations of WP as well as associated environmental and economic issues can represent a bigger picture of WP that can help to create incentives to sustainably improve agricultural production. PMID:27575368

Modeling of Shoreline Changes of Tulamben Coast, Bali Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuanita, Nita; Pratama, Roka; Husrin, Semeidi

2015-04-01

Modeling of Shoreline Changes of Tulamben Coast, Bali Indonesia Tulamben coast is located in Lombok Strait on the northeastern coast of Bali island, Indonesia, as part of Karang Asem district. Severe erosion along the coastline has long been occurred in Karang Asem area and threatening houses, religious buildings (Hindu temples), and a national heritage site. As one of most popular diving site in Bali Island, Tulamben attracted many local and international tourist since 1980. The main attraction of Tulamben diving site is the USAT Liberty ship that was shipwrecked in Tulamben beach in 1942, after attacked by Japanese torpedo in Lombok Strait. Currently about 150 diver visit Tulamben per day. Due to physical changes of coastal environmental such as coastal erosion, sliding, and scouring, the shipwreck is vulnerable. It had been slipped off the beach several times and is predicted would be moved to deeper offshore floor if it is not protected. Coastal erosion in Karang Asem district is occurred probably due to interaction between cross-shore and long-shore wave-generated current and river sand supply decreasing after sand mining activities. In this study, the effect of cross-shore and longshore transport to coastal erosion in Tulamben is analyzed by doing numerical model. Numerical simulation of shoreline changes is performed by using Beach Processes Module of CEDAS (Coastal Engineering Design and Analysis System) consists of SBEACH and GENESIS. The model domain is covered Karang Asem coastline about 60 km length and wave data is calculated from hourly wind data (10 years). Simulated shoreline is calibrated using shoreline data from 1972 to 2013. Using calibrated model, then the simulation is performed from 2003 - 2013. From the simulation it is determined that longshore current and longshore sediment contribute to coastal erosion in Tulamben. Based on model results, several alternatives of general layout and configuration of coastal protection structures is proposed. The most optimum coastal protection system is determined by simulating proposed alternative using GENESIS.

A Study of Effects of Hyperthermia on Large, Short-Haired Male Dogs: A Simulated Air Transport Environmental Stress

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-03-01

chamber, the third blood sample was canine distemper , canine infectious hepatitis. taken, nmonitoring leads were removed, and the leptospirosis, and...attention has been gien to the dlog studied Canine physiologrical and biochemical !•’andi its well-being than to other domestic small changes resulting...34-624, 1959. 2. Armistead, W. W.:, Heat Stroke and Heat Prostra- 11. Kanter, G. S., and It. 11. Lubinski : Effect of Heat tion. it Canin .lMedieine

Impacts of Climate Change on Biofuels Production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melillo, Jerry M.

2014-04-30

The overall goal of this research project was to improve and use our biogeochemistry model, TEM, to simulate the effects of climate change and other environmental changes on the production of biofuel feedstocks. We used the improved version of TEM that is coupled with the economic model, EPPA, a part of MIT’s Earth System Model, to explore how alternative uses of land, including land for biofuels production, can help society meet proposed climate targets. During the course of this project, we have made refinements to TEM that include development of a more mechanistic plant module, with improved ecohydrology and considerationmore » of plant-water relations, and a more detailed treatment of soil nitrogen dynamics, especially processes that add or remove nitrogen from ecosystems. We have documented our changes to TEM and used the model to explore the effects on production in land ecosystems, including changes in biofuels production.« less

Simulating 2,368 temperate lakes reveals weak coherence in stratification phenology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Read, Jordan S.; Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Van Den Hoek, Jamon; Hanson, Paul C.; Bruce, Louise C; Markfort, Corey D.

2014-01-01

Changes in water temperatures resulting from climate warming can alter the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Lake-specific physical characteristics may play a role in mediating individual lake responses to climate. Past mechanistic studies of lake-climate interactions have simulated generic lake classes at large spatial scales or performed detailed analyses of small numbers of real lakes. Understanding the diversity of lake responses to climate change across landscapes requires a hybrid approach that couples site-specific lake characteristics with broad-scale environmental drivers. This study provides a substantial advancement in lake ecosystem modeling by combining open-source tools with freely available continental-scale data to mechanistically model daily temperatures for 2,368 Wisconsin lakes over three decades (1979-2011). The model accurately predicted observed surface layer temperatures (RMSE: 1.74°C) and the presence/absence of stratification (81.1% agreement). Among-lake coherence was strong for surface temperatures and weak for the timing of stratification, suggesting individual lake characteristics mediate some - but not all - ecologically relevant lake responses to climate.

FATE-HD: A spatially and temporally explicit integrated model for predicting vegetation structure and diversity at regional scale

PubMed Central

Isabelle, Boulangeat; Damien, Georges; Wilfried, Thuiller

2014-01-01

During the last decade, despite strenuous efforts to develop new models and compare different approaches, few conclusions have been drawn on their ability to provide robust biodiversity projections in an environmental change context. The recurring suggestions are that models should explicitly (i) include spatiotemporal dynamics; (ii) consider multiple species in interactions; and (iii) account for the processes shaping biodiversity distribution. This paper presents a biodiversity model (FATE-HD) that meets this challenge at regional scale by combining phenomenological and process-based approaches and using well-defined plant functional groups. FATE-HD has been tested and validated in a French National Park, demonstrating its ability to simulate vegetation dynamics, structure and diversity in response to disturbances and climate change. The analysis demonstrated the importance of considering biotic interactions, spatio-temporal dynamics, and disturbances in addition to abiotic drivers to simulate vegetation dynamics. The distribution of pioneer trees was particularly improved, as were all undergrowth functional groups. PMID:24214499

(In)Consistent estimates of changes in relative precipitation in an European domain over the last 350 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bothe, Oliver; Wagner, Sebastian; Zorita, Eduardo

2015-04-01

How did regional precipitation change in past centuries? We have potentially three sources of information to answer this question: There are, especially for Europe, a number of long records of local station precipitation; documentary records and natural archives of past environmental variability serve as proxy records for empirical reconstructions; in addition, simulations with coupled climate models or Earth System Models provide estimates on the spatial structure of precipitation variability. However, instrumental records rarely extend back to the 18th century, reconstructions include large uncertainties, and simulation skill is often still unsatisfactory for precipitation. Thus, we can only seek to answer to which extent the three sources provide a consistent picture of past regional precipitation changes. This presentation describes the (lack of) consistency in describing changes of the distributional properties of seasonal precipitation between the different data sources. We concentrate on England and Wales since there are two recent reconstructions and a long observation based record available for this domain. The season of interest is an extended spring (March, April, May, June, July, MAMJJ) over the past 350 years. The main simulated data stem from a regional simulation for the European domain with CCLM driven at its lateral boundaries with conditions provided by a MPI-ESM COSMOS simulation for the last millennium using a high-amplitude solar forcing. A number of simulations for the past 1000 years from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III provide additional information. We fit a Weibull distribution to the available data sets following the approach for calculating standardized precipitation indices. We do so over 51 year moving windows to assess the consistency of changes in the distributional properties. Changes in the percentiles for severe (and extreme) dry or wet conditions and in the Weibull standard deviations of precipitation estimates are generally not consistent among the different data sets. Only few common signals are evident. Even the relatively strong exogenous forcing history of the late 18th and early 19th century appears to have only small effects on the precipitation distributions. The reconstructions differ systematically from the long instrumental data in displaying much stronger variability compared to the observations over their common period. Distributional properties for both data sets show to some extent opposite evolutions. The reconstructions do not reliably represent the distributions in specific periods but rather reflect low-frequency changes in the mean plus a certain amount of noise. Moreover, also multi-model simulations do not agree on the changes over this period. The lack of consistent simulated relations under purely naturally forced and internal variability on multi-decadal time-scales therefore questions our ability to conclude on dynamical inferences about regional climate variability in the PMIP3 ensemble and, in turn, in climate simulations in general. The potentially opposite evolution of reconstructions and instrumental data for the chosen domain further hampers reconciling available information about past regional precipitation variability in England and Wales. However, we find some possibly surprising but encouraging agreement between the observed data and the regional simulation.

Simulation of changes in heavy metal contamination in farmland soils of a typical manufacturing center through logistic-based cellular automata modeling.

PubMed

Qiu, Menglong; Wang, Qi; Li, Fangbai; Chen, Junjian; Yang, Guoyi; Liu, Liming

2016-01-01

A customized logistic-based cellular automata (CA) model was developed to simulate changes in heavy metal contamination (HMC) in farmland soils of Dongguan, a manufacturing center in Southern China, and to discover the relationship between HMC and related explanatory variables (continuous and categorical). The model was calibrated through the simulation and validation of HMC in 2012. Thereafter, the model was implemented for the scenario simulation of development alternatives for HMC in 2022. The HMC in 2002 and 2012 was determined through soil tests and cokriging. Continuous variables were divided into two groups by odds ratios. Positive variables (odds ratios >1) included the Nemerow synthetic pollution index in 2002, linear drainage density, distance from the city center, distance from the railway, slope, and secondary industrial output per unit of land. Negative variables (odds ratios <1) included elevation, distance from the road, distance from the key polluting enterprises, distance from the town center, soil pH, and distance from bodies of water. Categorical variables, including soil type, parent material type, organic content grade, and land use type, also significantly influenced HMC according to Wald statistics. The relative operating characteristic and kappa coefficients were 0.91 and 0.64, respectively, which proved the validity and accuracy of the model. The scenario simulation shows that the government should not only implement stricter environmental regulation but also strengthen the remediation of the current polluted area to effectively mitigate HMC.

Modeling the Reflectance of the Lunar Regolith by a New Method Combining Monte Carlo Ray Tracing and Hapke's Model with Application to Chang'E-1 IIM Data

PubMed Central

Wu, Yunzhao; Tang, Zesheng

2014-01-01

In this paper, we model the reflectance of the lunar regolith by a new method combining Monte Carlo ray tracing and Hapke's model. The existing modeling methods exploit either a radiative transfer model or a geometric optical model. However, the measured data from an Interference Imaging spectrometer (IIM) on an orbiter were affected not only by the composition of minerals but also by the environmental factors. These factors cannot be well addressed by a single model alone. Our method implemented Monte Carlo ray tracing for simulating the large-scale effects such as the reflection of topography of the lunar soil and Hapke's model for calculating the reflection intensity of the internal scattering effects of particles of the lunar soil. Therefore, both the large-scale and microscale effects are considered in our method, providing a more accurate modeling of the reflectance of the lunar regolith. Simulation results using the Lunar Soil Characterization Consortium (LSCC) data and Chang'E-1 elevation map show that our method is effective and useful. We have also applied our method to Chang'E-1 IIM data for removing the influence of lunar topography to the reflectance of the lunar soil and to generate more realistic visualizations of the lunar surface. PMID:24526892

Photosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: benchmarking for impact assessment studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Munhoven, Guy; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Betts, Richard; Hickler, Thomas; Steinkamp, Jörg; Ostberg, Sebastian; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Ciais, Philippe; Chang, Jinfeng; Rafique, Rashid; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang

2017-08-01

Simulating vegetation photosynthetic productivity (or gross primary production, GPP) is a critical feature of the biome models used for impact assessments of climate change. We conducted a benchmarking of global GPP simulated by eight biome models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a) with four meteorological forcing datasets (30 simulations), using independent GPP estimates and recent satellite data of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence as a proxy of GPP. The simulated global terrestrial GPP ranged from 98 to 141 Pg C yr-1 (1981-2000 mean); considerable inter-model and inter-data differences were found. Major features of spatial distribution and seasonal change of GPP were captured by each model, showing good agreement with the benchmarking data. All simulations showed incremental trends of annual GPP, seasonal-cycle amplitude, radiation-use efficiency, and water-use efficiency, mainly caused by the CO2 fertilization effect. The incremental slopes were higher than those obtained by remote sensing studies, but comparable with those by recent atmospheric observation. Apparent differences were found in the relationship between GPP and incoming solar radiation, for which forcing data differed considerably. The simulated GPP trends co-varied with a vegetation structural parameter, leaf area index, at model-dependent strengths, implying the importance of constraining canopy properties. In terms of extreme events, GPP anomalies associated with a historical El Niño event and large volcanic eruption were not consistently simulated in the model experiments due to deficiencies in both forcing data and parameterized environmental responsiveness. Although the benchmarking demonstrated the overall advancement of contemporary biome models, further refinements are required, for example, for solar radiation data and vegetation canopy schemes.

Simulation of corn yields and parameters uncertainties analysis in Hebei and Sichuang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, A.; Xue, Y.; Hartman, M. D.; Chandran, A.; Qiu, B.; Liu, Y.

2016-12-01

Corn is one of most important agricultural production in China. Research on the impacts of climate change and human activities on corn yields is important in understanding and mitigating the negative effects of environmental factors on corn yields and maintaining the stable corn production. Using climatic data, including daily temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation from 1948 to 2010, soil properties, observed corn yields, and farmland management information, corn yields in Sichuang and Hebei Provinces of China in the past 63 years were simulated using the Daycent model, and the results was evaluated using Root mean square errors, bias, simulation efficiency, and standard deviation. The primary climatic factors influencing corn yields were examined, the uncertainties of climatic factors was analyzed, and the uncertainties of human activity parameters were also studied by changing fertilization levels and cultivated ways. The results showed that: (1) Daycent model is capable to simulate corn yields in Sichuang and Hebei provinces of China. Observed and simulated corn yields have the similar increasing trend with time. (2) The minimum daily temperature is the primary factor influencing corn yields in Sichuang. In Hebei Province, daily temperature, precipitation and wind speed significantly affect corn yields.(3) When the global warming trend of original data was removed, simulated corn yields were lower than before, decreased by about 687 kg/hm2 from 1992 to 2010; When the fertilization levels, cultivated ways were increased and decreased by 50% and 75%, respectively in the Schedule file in Daycent model, the simulated corn yields increased by 1206 kg/hm2 and 776 kg/hm2, respectively, with the enhancement of fertilization level and the improvement of cultivated way. This study provides a scientific base for selecting a suitable fertilization level and cultivated way in corn fields in China.

SeSBench - An initiative to benchmark reactive transport models for environmental subsurface processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacques, Diederik

2017-04-01

As soil functions are governed by a multitude of interacting hydrological, geochemical and biological processes, simulation tools coupling mathematical models for interacting processes are needed. Coupled reactive transport models are a typical example of such coupled tools mainly focusing on hydrological and geochemical coupling (see e.g. Steefel et al., 2015). Mathematical and numerical complexity for both the tool itself or of the specific conceptual model can increase rapidly. Therefore, numerical verification of such type of models is a prerequisite for guaranteeing reliability and confidence and qualifying simulation tools and approaches for any further model application. In 2011, a first SeSBench -Subsurface Environmental Simulation Benchmarking- workshop was held in Berkeley (USA) followed by four other ones. The objective is to benchmark subsurface environmental simulation models and methods with a current focus on reactive transport processes. The final outcome was a special issue in Computational Geosciences (2015, issue 3 - Reactive transport benchmarks for subsurface environmental simulation) with a collection of 11 benchmarks. Benchmarks, proposed by the participants of the workshops, should be relevant for environmental or geo-engineering applications; the latter were mostly related to radioactive waste disposal issues - excluding benchmarks defined for pure mathematical reasons. Another important feature is the tiered approach within a benchmark with the definition of a single principle problem and different sub problems. The latter typically benchmarked individual or simplified processes (e.g. inert solute transport, simplified geochemical conceptual model) or geometries (e.g. batch or one-dimensional, homogeneous). Finally, three codes should be involved into a benchmark. The SeSBench initiative contributes to confidence building for applying reactive transport codes. Furthermore, it illustrates the use of those type of models for different environmental and geo-engineering applications. SeSBench will organize new workshops to add new benchmarks in a new special issue. Steefel, C. I., et al. (2015). "Reactive transport codes for subsurface environmental simulation." Computational Geosciences 19: 445-478.

Impact of climate change upon vector born diseases in Europe and Africa using ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andy

2010-05-01

Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant human/animal health and socioeconomic impacts. The most important diseases affecting health are vector-borne, such as malaria, Rift Valley Fever and including those that are tick borne, with over 3 billion of the world population at risk. Malaria alone is responsible for at least one million deaths annually, with 80% of malaria deaths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. The climate has a large impact upon the incidence of vector-borne diseases; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the environmental conditions. A large ensemble of regional climate model simulations has been produced within the ENSEMBLES project framework for both the European and African continent. This work will present recent progress in human and animal disease modelling, based on high resolution climate observations and regional climate simulations. Preliminary results will be given as an illustration, including the impact of climate change upon bluetongue (disease affecting the cattle) over Europe and upon malaria and Rift Valley Fever over Africa. Malaria scenarios based on RCM ensemble simulations have been produced for West Africa. These simulations have been carried out using the Liverpool Malaria Model. Future projections highlight that the malaria incidence decreases at the northern edge of the Sahel and that the epidemic belt is shifted southward in autumn. This could lead to significant public health problems in the future as the demography is expected to dramatically rise over Africa for the 21st century.

Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe.

PubMed

Rose, Hannah; Caminade, Cyril; Bolajoko, Muhammad Bashir; Phelan, Paul; van Dijk, Jan; Baylis, Matthew; Williams, Diana; Morgan, Eric R

2016-03-01

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0 , adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2-3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of climate change on crop yield and role of model for achieving food security.

PubMed

Kumar, Manoj

2016-08-01

In recent times, several studies around the globe indicate that climatic changes are likely to impact the food production and poses serious challenge to food security. In the face of climate change, agricultural systems need to adapt measures for not only increasing food supply catering to the growing population worldwide with changing dietary patterns but also to negate the negative environmental impacts on the earth. Crop simulation models are the primary tools available to assess the potential consequences of climate change on crop production and informative adaptive strategies in agriculture risk management. In consideration with the important issue, this is an attempt to provide a review on the relationship between climate change impacts and crop production. It also emphasizes the role of crop simulation models in achieving food security. Significant progress has been made in understanding the potential consequences of environment-related temperature and precipitation effect on agricultural production during the last half century. Increased CO2 fertilization has enhanced the potential impacts of climate change, but its feasibility is still in doubt and debates among researchers. To assess the potential consequences of climate change on agriculture, different crop simulation models have been developed, to provide informative strategies to avoid risks and understand the physical and biological processes. Furthermore, they can help in crop improvement programmes by identifying appropriate future crop management practises and recognizing the traits having the greatest impact on yield. Nonetheless, climate change assessment through model is subjected to a range of uncertainties. The prediction uncertainty can be reduced by using multimodel, incorporating crop modelling with plant physiology, biochemistry and gene-based modelling. For devloping new model, there is a need to generate and compile high-quality field data for model testing. Therefore, assessment of agricultural productivity to sustain food security for generations is essential to maintain a collective knowledge and resources for preventing negative impact as well as managing crop practises.

The effect of abrupt climate changes and climate background conditions in Southern Europe during the last glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, Gregor; Martin-Puertas, Celia; Brauer, Achim; Lohmann, Gerrit

2015-04-01

The last glacial period is characterized by abrupt and large temperature shifts in Greenland and the North Atlantic realm. Pollen and sediment data from Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON) have demonstrated a clear imprint of these fluctuations operating at millennial time-scales. Interestingly, basic mean environmental condition changes with respect to temperature and precipitation occurred during MIS4, separating warm and dry conditions during MIS5 from relatively cold and humid conditions within MIS3. This general climate background shift is superposed by distinct millennial-scale variability at MON. Using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model applying boundary conditions at 32 ka BP and pre-industrial conditions as a surrogate for MIS3 and MIS5, we have simulated and analysed characteristic changes in Southern Europe during the last glacial. We find that changes in the mean state at MON are mainly related to a partial shift of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) convection sites from the Nordic Seas to South of Iceland, the presence of the Fennoscandian ice sheet and lower greenhouse gas concentrations. These background characteristics provide the basis for enhanced zonal moisture transport from the eastern North Atlantic to Middle and Southern Europe. Furthermore, simulations of abrupt climate change scenarios show that a deactivation of the convection sites South of Iceland during MIS3 leads to cooler and dryer conditions at MON. Such temperature and precipitation changes are thought to provide a counter-acting effect on woody vegetation and associated pollen signals at MON. This is in contrast to the impact of abrupt climate perturbation scenarios during MIS5, where no significant precipitation changes are detected. Hence, the simulated changes and underlying mechanisms are largely consistent with the recorded proxy evidence with respect to both, mean state and millennial-scale changes.

Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Sturtevant, Luke P.

2018-01-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the Department of Health and Human Services, has developed a hydrologic model to assess the effects of short- and long-term climate change on hydrology in New Hampshire. This report documents the model and datasets developed by using the model to predict how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle and provide data that can be used by State and local agencies to identify locations that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change in areas across New Hampshire. Future hydrologic projections were developed from the output of five general circulation models for two future climate scenarios. The scenarios are based on projected future greenhouse gas emissions and estimates of land-use and land-cover change within a projected global economic framework. An evaluation of the possible effect of projected future temperature on modeling of evapotranspiration is summarized to address concerns regarding the implications of the future climate on model parameters that are based on climate variables. The results of the model simulations are hydrologic projections indicating increasing streamflow across the State with large increases in streamflow during winter and early spring and general decreases during late spring and summer. Wide spatial variability in changes to groundwater recharge is projected, with general decreases in the Connecticut River Valley and at high elevations in the northern part of the State and general increases in coastal and lowland areas of the State. In general, total winter snowfall is projected to decrease across the State, but there is a possibility of increasing snow in some locations, particularly during November, February, and March. The simulated future changes in recharge and snowfall vary by watershed across the State. This means that each area of the State could experience very different changes, depending on topography or other factors. Therefore, planning for infrastructure and public safety needs to be flexible in order to address the range of possible outcomes indicated by the various model simulations. The absolute magnitude and timing of the daily streamflows, especially the larger floods, are not considered to be reliably simulated compared to changes in frequency and duration of daily streamflows and changes in accumulated monthly and seasonal streamflow volumes. Simulated current and future streamflow, groundwater recharge, and snowfall datasets include simulated data derived from the five general circulation models used in this study for a current reference time period and two future time periods. Average monthly streamflow time series datasets are provided for 27 streamgages in New Hampshire. Fourteen of the 27 streamgages associated with daily streamflow time series showed a good calibration. Average monthly groundwater recharge and snowfall time series for the same reference time period and two future time periods are also provided for each of the 467 hydrologic response units that compose the model.

Optical Analysis of Transparent Polymeric Material Exposed to Simulated Space Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, David L.; Finckenor, Miria M.

1999-01-01

Transparent polymeric materials are being designed and utilized as solar concentrating lenses for spacecraft power and propulsion systems. These polymeric lenses concentrate solar energy onto energy conversion devices such as solar cells and thermal energy systems. The conversion efficiency is directly related to the transmissivity of the polymeric lens. The Environmental Effects Group of the Marshall Space Flight Center's Materials, Processes, and Manufacturing Department exposed a variety of materials to a simulated space environment and evaluated them for an, change in optical transmission. These materials include Lexan(TM), polyethylene terephthalate (PET). several formulations of Tefzel(TM). and Teflon(TM), and silicone DC 93-500. Samples were exposed to a minimum of 1000 Equivalent Sun Hours (ESH) of near-UV radiation (250 - 400 nm wavelength). Data will be presented on materials exposed to charged particle radiation equivalent to a five-year dose in geosynchronous orbit. These exposures were performed in MSFC's Combined Environmental Effects Test Chamber, a unique facility with the capability to expose materials simultaneously or sequentially to protons, low-energy electrons, high-energy electrons, near UV radiation and vacuum UV radiation.Prolonged exposure to the space environment will decrease the polymer film's transmission and thus reduce the conversion efficiency. A method was developed to normalize the transmission loss and thus rank the materials according to their tolerance to space environmental exposure. Spectral results and the material ranking according to transmission loss are presented.

Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Sha; Yu, Bofu; Schwalm, Christopher R.

Here, water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO 2more » explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO 2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO 2, but this direct CO 2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO 2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO 2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.« less

Temporal segmentation of animal trajectories informed by habitat use

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Toor, Marielle L.; Newman, Scott H.; Takekawa, John Y.; Wegmann, Martin; Safi, Kamran

2016-01-01

Most animals live in seasonal environments and experience very different conditions throughout the year. Behavioral strategies like migration, hibernation, and a life cycle adapted to the local seasonality help to cope with fluctuations in environmental conditions. Thus, how an individual utilizes the environment depends both on the current availability of habitat and the behavioral prerequisites of the individual at that time. While the increasing availability and richness of animal movement data has facilitated the development of algorithms that classify behavior by movement geometry, changes in the environmental correlates of animal movement have so far not been exploited for a behavioral annotation. Here, we suggest a method that uses these changes in individual–environment associations to divide animal location data into segments of higher ecological coherence, which we term niche segmentation. We use time series of random forest models to evaluate the transferability of habitat use over time to cluster observational data accordingly. We show that our method is able to identify relevant changes in habitat use corresponding to both changes in the availability of habitat and how it was used using simulated data, and apply our method to a tracking data set of common teal (Anas crecca). The niche segmentation proved to be robust, and segmented habitat suitability outperformed models neglecting the temporal dynamics of habitat use. Overall, we show that it is possible to classify animal trajectories based on changes of habitat use similar to geometric segmentation algorithms. We conclude that such an environmentally informed classification of animal trajectories can provide new insights into an individuals' behavior and enables us to make sensible predictions of how suitable areas might be connected by movement in space and time.

Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Sha; Yu, Bofu; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yao; Fisher, Joshua B.; Michalak, Anna M.; Wang, Weile; Poulter, Benjamin; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Niu, Shuli; Mao, Jiafu; Jain, Atul; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Ito, Akihiko; Wei, Yaxing; Huang, Yuefei; Wang, Guangqian

2017-11-01

Water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

Modelling the far field hydro-environmental impacts of tidal farms - A focus on tidal regime, inter-tidal zones and flushing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nash, S.; O'Brien, N.; Olbert, A.; Hartnett, M.

2014-10-01

The introduction of tidal stream turbines into water bodies can have an impact on the environment due to changes in the hydrodynamic flow fields resulting from the extraction of energy by the tidal turbines. Water levels, tidal currents and flushing characteristics could potentially be significantly altered with the introduction of tidal turbine farms, which could lead to possible loss of habitat and a change in the tidal regime. Therefore, planning of tidal turbines field deployments must take into account possible hydro-environmental impacts. This paper describes research undertaken by the authors in the Shannon Estuary to predict changes in the tidal regime and flushing characteristics, with the introduction of tidal turbine farms of different array configurations. The model was simulated using a 2D hydrodynamic model that was modified to incorporate the effects of tidal turbine fields. Water levels are shown to have been affected with the inclusion of turbines, especially in areas upstream of the turbine farm where inter-tidal zones could become predominately inundated resulting in loss of habitat in the estuary. Flushing parameters were also shown to be altered with the inclusion of turbines, with residence time shown to be increased, which could change pollutant transport in the region.

Common dolphins in the Alboran Sea: Facing a reduction in their suitable habitat due to an increase in Sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cañadas, A.; Vázquez, J. A.

2017-07-01

The short-beaked common dolphin Mediterranean subpopulation appears to have suffered a steep decline over recent decades and was listed in 2003 as 'Endangered' in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. The Alboran Sea is the last region in the Mediterranean where it is still abundant. In this study, we relate features of this species' ecology to climate change, focusing on distribution and density. This work used a two decades-long dataset on the common dolphin in the Alboran Sea and a time series of environmental changes. Once established, these relationships were used in conjunction with some simulated scenarios of environmental change to predict the potential effects of further change on these species over the next 100 years. Two approaches were used: 1) projection from a regression line from local variation, and 2) a HadCM3 climate model with time-varying anthropogenic effects. Generalized Additive Models were used to model the relationship between density of the animals with SST and other environmental covariates. Results from both approaches were very similar. The predictions of density from the regression line fell within the ranges from the HadCM3 climate model, the first being based on local and locally, point to point, differentiated information, which lead us to consider the first approach as the best for this area. At the small spatial scale of the Alboran Sea and Gulf of Vera, an increase in SST will potentially yield a reduction in suitable habitat for common dolphins, with a progressive reduction in density from east to west.

Assessing the impacts of the changes in farming systems on food security and environmental sustainability of a Chinese rural region under different policy scenarios: an agent-based model.

PubMed

Yuan, Chengcheng; Liu, Liming; Qi, Xiaoxing; Fu, Yonghu; Ye, Jinwei

2017-07-01

Since China has undergone a series of economic reforms and implemented opening up policies, its farming systems have significantly changed and have dramatically influenced the society, economy, and environment of China. To assess the comprehensive impacts of these changes on food security and environmental sustainability, and establish effective and environment-friendly subsidy policies, this research constructed an agent-based model (ABM). Daligang Town, which is located in the two-season rice region of Southern China, was selected as the case study site. Four different policy scenarios, i.e., "sharply increasing" (SI), "no-increase" (NI), "adjusted-method" (AM), and "trend" (TD) scenarios were investigated from 2015 to 2029. The validation result shows that the relative prediction errors between the simulated and actual values annually ranged from -20 to 20%, indicating the reliability of the proposed model. The scenario analysis revealed that the four scenarios generated different variations in cropping systems, rice yield, and fertilizer and pesticide inputs when the purchase price of rice and the non-agricultural income were assumed to increase annually by 0.1 RMB per kg and 10% per person, respectively. Among the four different policy scenarios in Daligang, the TD scenario was considered the best, because it had a relatively high rice yield, fairly minimal use of fertilizers and pesticides, and a lower level of subsidy. Despite its limitations, ABM could be considered a useful tool in analyzing, exploring, and discussing the comprehensive effects of the changes in farming system on food security and environmental sustainability.

Impacts of climate variability and change on crop yield in sub-Sahara Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, S.; Zhang, J.; Yang, J.; Chen, G.; Xu, R.; Zhang, B.; Lou, Y.

2017-12-01

Much concern has been raised about the impacts of climate change and climate extremes on Africa's food security. The impact of climate change on Africa's agriculture is likely to be severe compared to other continents due to high rain-fed agricultural dependence, and limited ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In recent decades, warming in Africa is more pronounced and faster than the global average and this trend is likely to continue in the future. However, quantitative assessment on impacts of climate extremes and climate change on crop yield has not been well investigated yet. By using an improved agricultural module of the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2) driven by spatially-explicit information on land use, climate and other environmental changes, we have assessed impacts of historical climate variability and future climate change on food crop yield across the sub-Sahara Africa during1980-2016 and the rest of the 21st century (2017-2099). Our simulated results indicate that African crop yield in the past three decades shows an increasing trend primarily due to cropland expansion. However, crop yield shows substantially spatial and temporal variation due to inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability and spatial heterogeneity of environmental drivers. Droughts have largely reduced crop yield in the most vulnerable regions of Sub-Sahara Africa. Future projections with DLEM-AG2 show that food crop production in Sub-Sahara Africa would be favored with limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.50 C.

Functional enzyme-based modeling approach for dynamic simulation of denitrification process in hyporheic zone sediments: Genetically structured microbial community model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, H. S.; Li, M.; Qian, W.; Song, X.; Chen, X.; Scheibe, T. D.; Fredrickson, J.; Zachara, J. M.; Liu, C.

2016-12-01

Modeling environmental microbial communities at individual organism level is currently intractable due to overwhelming structural complexity. Functional guild-based approaches alleviate this problem by lumping microorganisms into fewer groups based on their functional similarities. This reduction may become ineffective, however, when individual species perform multiple functions as environmental conditions vary. In contrast, the functional enzyme-based modeling approach we present here describes microbial community dynamics based on identified functional enzymes (rather than individual species or their groups). Previous studies in the literature along this line used biomass or functional genes as surrogate measures of enzymes due to the lack of analytical methods for quantifying enzymes in environmental samples. Leveraging our recent development of a signature peptide-based technique enabling sensitive quantification of functional enzymes in environmental samples, we developed a genetically structured microbial community model (GSMCM) to incorporate enzyme concentrations and various other omics measurements (if available) as key modeling input. We formulated the GSMCM based on the cybernetic metabolic modeling framework to rationally account for cellular regulation without relying on empirical inhibition kinetics. In the case study of modeling denitrification process in Columbia River hyporheic zone sediments collected from the Hanford Reach, our GSMCM provided a quantitative fit to complex experimental data in denitrification, including the delayed response of enzyme activation to the change in substrate concentration. Our future goal is to extend the modeling scope to the prediction of carbon and nitrogen cycles and contaminant fate. Integration of a simpler version of the GSMCM with PFLOTRAN for multi-scale field simulations is in progress.

Evolutionary online behaviour learning and adaptation in real robots

PubMed Central

Correia, Luís; Christensen, Anders Lyhne

2017-01-01

Online evolution of behavioural control on real robots is an open-ended approach to autonomous learning and adaptation: robots have the potential to automatically learn new tasks and to adapt to changes in environmental conditions, or to failures in sensors and/or actuators. However, studies have so far almost exclusively been carried out in simulation because evolution in real hardware has required several days or weeks to produce capable robots. In this article, we successfully evolve neural network-based controllers in real robotic hardware to solve two single-robot tasks and one collective robotics task. Controllers are evolved either from random solutions or from solutions pre-evolved in simulation. In all cases, capable solutions are found in a timely manner (1 h or less). Results show that more accurate simulations may lead to higher-performing controllers, and that completing the optimization process in real robots is meaningful, even if solutions found in simulation differ from solutions in reality. We furthermore demonstrate for the first time the adaptive capabilities of online evolution in real robotic hardware, including robots able to overcome faults injected in the motors of multiple units simultaneously, and to modify their behaviour in response to changes in the task requirements. We conclude by assessing the contribution of each algorithmic component on the performance of the underlying evolutionary algorithm. PMID:28791130