Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones to Climate Change for the Eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, M.; Yang, L.; Smith, J. A.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) is responsible for vast socioeconomic losses and fatalities. Landfalling tropical cyclones are an important element of extreme rainfall and flood peak distributions in the eastern United States. Record floods for USGS stream gauging stations over the eastern US are closely tied to landfalling hurricanes. A small number of storms account for the largest record floods, most notably Hurricanes Diane (1955) and Agnes (1972). The question we address is: if the synoptic conditions accompanying those hurricanes were to be repeated in the future, how would the thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties and associated extreme rainfall differ in response to climate change? We examine three hurricanes: Diane (1955), Agnes (1972) and Irene (2011), due to the contrasts in structure/evolution properties and their important roles in dictating the upper tail properties of extreme rainfall and flood frequency over eastern US. Extreme rainfall from Diane is more localized as the storm maintains tropical characteristics, while synoptic-scale vertical motion associated with extratropical transition is a central feature for extreme rainfall induced by Agnes. Our analyses are based on ensemble simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, considering combinations of different physics options (i.e., microphysics, boundary layer schemes). The initial and boundary conditions of WRF simulations for the present-day climate are using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20thCR). A sub-selection of GCMs is used, as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), to provide future climate projections. For future simulations, changes in model fields (i.e., temperature, humidity, geopotential height) between present-day and future climate are first derived and then added to the same 20thCR initial and boundary data used for the present-day simulations, and the ensemble is rerun using identical model configurations. Response of extreme rainfall as well as changes in thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties will be presented and analyzed. Contrasting responses across the three storm events to climate change will shed light on critical environmental factors for TC-related extreme rainfall over eastern US.

Environmental and internal controls of tropical cyclone intensity change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desflots, Melicie

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change is governed by internal dynamics and environmental conditions. This study aims to gain a better understanding of the physical mechanisms responsible for TC intensity changes with a particular focus to those related to the vertical wind shear and the impact of sea spray on the hurricane boundary layer, by using high resolution, full physics numerical simulations. The coupled model consists of three components: the non-hydrostatic, 5th generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR mesoscale model (MM5), the NOAA/NCEP WAVEWATCH III (WW3) ocean surface wave model, and the WHOI three-dimensional upper ocean circulation model (3DPWP). Sea spray parameterizations (SSP) were developed at NOAA/ESRL, modified by the author and introduced in uncoupled and coupled simulations. The 0.5 km grid resolution MM5 simulation of Hurricane Lili showed a rapid intensification associated with a contracting eyewall. Hurricane Lili weakened in a 5-10 m s-1 vertical wind shear environment. The simulated storm experienced wind shear direction normal to the storm motion, which produced a strong wavenumber one rainfall asymmetry in the downshear-left quadrant of the storm. The increasing vertical wind shear induced a vertical tilt of the vortex with a time lag of 5-6 hours after the wavenumber one rainfall asymmetry was first observed in the model simulation. Other factors controlling intensity and intensity change in tropical cyclones are the air-sea fluxes. Recent studies have shown that the momentum exchange coefficient levels off at high wind speed. However, the behavior of the exchange coefficient for enthalpy flux in high wind and the potential impact of sea spray on it is still uncertain. The current SSP are closely tied to wind speed and overestimate the mediated heat fluxes by sea spray in the hurricane boundary layer. As the sea spray generation depends on wind speed and the variable wave state, a new SSP based on the surface wave energy dissipation (WED) is introduced in the coupled model. In the coupled simulations, the WED is used to quantify the amount of wave breaking related to the generation of spray. The SSP coupled to the waves offers an improvement compared to the wind dependent SSP.

Numerical simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) in the turbulent gray zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Benjamin W.; Zhang, Fuqing

2015-03-01

Current numerical simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs) use a horizontal grid spacing as small as Δx = 103 m, with all boundary layer (BL) turbulence parameterized. Eventually, TC simulations can be conducted at Large Eddy Simulation (LES) resolution, which requires Δx to fall in the inertial subrange (often <102 m) to adequately resolve the large, energy-containing eddies. Between the two lies the so-called "terra incognita" because some of the assumptions used by mesoscale models and LES to treat BL turbulence are invalid. This study performs several 4-6 h simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) without a BL parameterization at extremely fine Δx [333, 200, and 111 m, hereafter "Large Eddy Permitting (LEP) runs"] and compares with mesoscale simulations with BL parameterizations (Δx = 3 km, 1 km, and 333 m, hereafter "PBL runs"). There are profound differences in the hurricane BL structure between the PBL and LEP runs: the former have a deeper inflow layer and secondary eyewall formation, whereas the latter have a shallow inflow layer without a secondary eyewall. Among the LEP runs, decreased Δx yields weaker subgrid-scale vertical momentum fluxes, but the sum of subgrid-scale and "grid-scale" fluxes remain similar. There is also evidence that the size of the prevalent BL eddies depends upon Δx, suggesting that convergence to true LES has not yet been reached. Nevertheless, the similarities in the storm-scale BL structure among the LEP runs indicate that the net effect of the BL on the rest of the hurricane may be somewhat independent of Δx.

Secondary eyewall formation as a progressive boundary layer response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abarca, S. F.; Montgomery, M. T.; Bell, M. M.

2012-12-01

The robust observational (satellite based) evidence that secondary eyewalls are common features in major hurricanes contrasts with the scarce in situ observations of the phenomena and its life cycle. This lack of observations has resulted in an incomplete understanding of the dynamics of secondary eyewall formation (SEF). A wide variety of physical processes have been invoked to explain SEF, but only the recently proposed theory of a progressive boundary layer control in SEF has been supported by a variety of full physics mesoscale numerical integrations. The RAINEX field project provided unique observations of the secondary eyewall of Hurricane Rita (2005) both before and during the time Rita exhibited a clear secondary eyewall structure. These observations have contributed to the advancement of the understanding of the secondary eyewall phenomenon. However, in the RAINEX experiment, there was limited data sampling during the development of the secondary wind maxima, thereby precluding a complete observational investigation of the dynamics of SEF. In this presentation we adopt an azimuthally-averaged perspective of the flow dynamics and we test the newly proposed theory of a progressive boundary layer control on SEF. Specifically, we use both RAINEX data as well as data from high resolution, full physics mesoscale numerical simulations to initialize and force an axisymmetric slab boundary layer model with radial diffusion included. The objective is to investigate whether such a reduced boundary layer model can generate secondary wind maxima as a response to environments like those that result in SEF in nature and in full physics simulations.

Estimating the human influence on Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, M. F.; Patricola, C. M.; Risser, M. D.

2017-12-01

Attribution of the human-induced climate change influence on the physical characteristics of individual extreme weather events has become an advanced science over the past decade. However, it is only recently that such quantification of anthropogenic influences on event magnitudes and probability of occurrence could be applied to very extreme storms such as hurricanes. We present results from two different classes of attribution studies for the impactful Atlantic hurricanes of 2017. The first is an analysis of the record rainfall amounts during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas area. We analyzed observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of ENSO. We found that human-induced climate change likely increased Hurricane Harvey's total rainfall by at least 19%, and likely increased the chances of the observed rainfall by a factor of at least 3.5. This suggests that changes exceeded Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, motivating attribution studies using dynamical climate models. The second analysis consists of two sets of hindcast simulations of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at 4.5 km resolution. The first uses realistic boundary and initial conditions and present-day greenhouse gas forcings while the second uses perturbed conditions and pre-industrial greenhouse has forcings to simulate counterfactual storms without anthropogenic influences. These simulations quantify the fraction of Harvey's precipitation attributable to human activities and test the super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling suggested by the observational analysis. We will further quantify the human influence on intensity for Harvey, Irma, and Maria.

Large-Scale Numerical Simulations of Ocean and Tidal Channel Boundary Layers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlington, P.; Smith, K.; Van Roekel, L. P.; Fox-Kemper, B.; Suzuki, N.; Sullivan, P. P.

2016-12-01

Recently, we have unfortunately witnessed a series of deadly hurricane events, including Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria and Nate. Effective disaster management actions such as getting citizen sheltered and evacuated can significantly reduce injuries and fatalities. A more comprehensive understanding of citizen's perceptions (e.g., sentiment) about a disaster and movement behaviors (e.g., evacuation) will help improve disaster management and decision making during natural hazards. With the popularity of various social media platforms (i.e. Twitter), there has been great potentials in using social media data to detect and analyze citizen's perceptions and moving behaviors before, during and after a natural hazard. Using the geo-tagged tweets generated during recent hurricane events, the study will examine the movement interactions between citizens and a hurricane and also explore citizens' tweeting behaviors and sentiments at different stages of a disaster. The results provide insights on understanding 1) spatiotemporal patterns of public movements (i.e., when and where did people's movements happen), 2) how were people's movements related to the hurricane trajectory, 3) when did people in different locations start to pay attention to the hurricane, and finally 4) how were the sentiments of people in different places towards the hurricane during different disaster stages.

Short-term Climate Simulations of African Easterly Waves with a Global Mesoscale Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, B. W.

2015-12-01

Recent high-resolution global model simulations ( Shen et al., 2010a, 2010b, 2012; 2013), which were conducted to examine the role of multiscale processes associated with tropical waves in the predictability of mesoscale tropical cyclones (TCs), suggested that a large-scale system (e.g., tropical waves) can provide determinism on the prediction of TC genesis, making it possible to extend the lead time of genesis predictions. Selected cases include the relationship between (i) TC Nargis (2008) and an Equatorial Rossby wave; (ii) Hurricane Helene (2006) and an intensifying African Easterly Wave (AEW); (iii) Twin TCs (2002) and a mixed Rossby-gravity wave during an active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO); (iv) Hurricane Sandy (2012) and tropical waves during an active phase of the MJO. In this talk, thirty-day simulations with different model configurations are presented to examine the model's ability to simulate AEWs and MJOs and their association with tropical cyclogenesis. I will first discuss the simulations of the initiation and propagation of 6 consecutive AEWs in late August 2006 and the mean state of the African easterly jet (AEJ) over both Africa and downstream in the tropical Atlantic. By comparing our simulations with NCEP analysis and satellite data (e.g., TRMM), it is shown that the statistical characteristics of individual AEWs are realistically simulated with larger errors in the 5th and th AEWs. Results from the sensitivity experiments suggest the following: 1) accurate representations of non-linear interactions between the atmosphere and land processes are crucial for improving the simulations of the AEWs and the AEJ; 2) improved simulations of an individual AEW and its interaction with local environments (e.g., the Guinea Highlands) could provide determinism for hurricane formation downstream. Of interest is the potential to extend the lead time for predicting hurricane formation (e.g., a lead time of up to 22 days) as the 4th AEW is realistically simulated; 3) however, the dependence of AEW simulations on accurate dynamic and surface initial conditions and boundary conditions poses a challenge in simulating their modulation on hurricane activity. In addition to the simulations of AEWs, I will also present the 30-day simulations of selected MJO cases.

Impact of vertical wind shear on roll structure in idealized hurricane boundary layers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shouping; Jiang, Qingfang

2017-03-01

Quasi-two-dimensional roll vortices are frequently observed in hurricane boundary layers. It is believed that this highly coherent structure, likely caused by the inflection-point instability, plays an important role in organizing turbulent transport. Large-eddy simulations are conducted to investigate the impact of wind shear characteristics, such as the shear strength and inflection-point level, on the roll structure in terms of its spectral characteristics and turbulence organization. A mean wind nudging approach is used in the simulations to maintain the specified mean wind shear without directly affecting turbulent motions. Enhancing the radial wind shear expands the roll horizontal scale and strengthens the roll's kinetic energy. Increasing the inflection-point level tends to produce a narrow and sharp peak in the power spectrum at the wavelength consistent with the roll spacing indicated by the instantaneous turbulent fields. The spectral tangential momentum flux, in particular, reaches a strong peak value at the roll wavelength. In contrast, the spectral radial momentum flux obtains its maximum at the wavelength that is usually shorter than the roll's, suggesting that the roll radial momentum transport is less efficient than the tangential because of the quasi-two-dimensionality of the roll structure. The most robust rolls are produced in a simulation with the highest inflection-point level and relatively strong radial wind shear. Based on the spectral analysis, the roll-scale contribution to the turbulent momentum flux can reach 40 % in the middle of the boundary layer.

Geohydrology and numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the central Virgin River Basin of Iron and Washington Counties, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heilweil, V.M.; Freethey, G.W.; Wilkowske, C.D.; Stolp, B.J.; Wilberg, D.E.

2000-01-01

Because rapid growth of communities in Washington and Iron Counties, Utah, is expected to cause an increase in the future demand for water resources, a hydrologic investigation was done to better understand ground-water resources within the central Virgin River basin. This study focused on two of the principal ground-water reservoirs within the basin: the upper Ash Creek basin ground-water system and the Navajo and Kayenta aquifer system.The ground-water system of the upper Ash Creek drainage basin consists of three aquifers: the uppermost Quaternary basin-fill aquifer, the Tertiary alluvial-fan aquifer, and the Tertiary Pine Valley monzonite aquifer. These aquifers are naturally bounded by the Hurricane Fault and by drainage divides. On the basis of measurements, estimates, and numerical simulations of reasonable values for all inflow and outflow components, total water moving through the upper Ash Creek drainage basin ground-water system is estimated to be about 14,000 acre-feet per year. Recharge to the upper Ash Creek drainage basin ground-water system is mostly from infiltration of precipitation and seepage from ephemeral and perennial streams. The primary source of discharge is assumed to be evapotranspiration; however, subsurface discharge near Ash Creek Reservoir also may be important.The character of two of the hydrologic boundaries of the upper Ash Creek drainage basin ground-water system is speculative. The eastern boundary provided by the Hurricane Fault is assumed to be a no-flow boundary, and a substantial part of the ground-water discharge from the system is assumed to be subsurface outflow beneath Ash Creek Reservoir along the southern boundary. However, these assumptions might be incorrect because alternative numerical simulations that used different boundary conditions also proved to be feasible. The hydrogeologic character of the aquifers is uncertain because of limited data. Differences in well yield indicate that there is considerable variability in the transmissivity of the basin-fill aquifer. Field data also indicate that the basin-fill aquifer is more transmissive than the underlying alluvial-fan aquifer. Data from the Pine Valley monzonite aquifer indicate that its transmissivity may be highly variable and that it is strongly influenced by the connection of fractures.The Navajo and Kayenta aquifers provide most of the potable water to the municipalities of Washington County. Because of large outcrop exposures, uniform grain size, and large stratigraphic thickness, these formations are able to receive and store large amounts of water. In addition, structural forces have resulted in extensive fracture zones that enhance ground-water recharge and movement within these aquifers. Aquifer testing of the Navajo aquifer indicates that horizontal hydraulic-conductivity values range from 0.2 to 32 feet per day at different locations and may be primarily dependent on the extent of fracturing. Limited data indicate that the Kayenta aquifer generally is less transmissive than the Navajo aquifer. The aquifers are bounded to the south and west by the erosional extent of the formations and to the east by the Hurricane Fault, which completely offsets these formations and is assumed to be a lateral no-flow boundary. Like the Hurricane Fault, the Gunlock Fault is assumed to be a lateral no-flow boundary that divides the Navajo and Kayenta aquifers within the study area into two parts: the main part, between the Hurricane and Gunlock Faults; and the Gunlock part, west of the Gunlock Fault.Generally, the water in the Navajo and Kayenta aquifers contains few dissolved minerals. However, two distinct areas contain water with dissolved-solids concentrations greater than 500 milligrams per liter: a larger area north of the city of St. George and a smaller area a few miles west of the town of Hurricane. Mass-balance calculations indicate that in the higher-dissolved-solids area north of St. George, as much as 2.7 cubic feet per second may be entering the aquifer from underlying formations. For the area west of Hurricane, as much as 1.5 cubic feet per second may be entering the aquifer from underlying formations.On the basis of measurements, estimates, and numerical simulations, total water moving through the Navajo and Kayenta aquifers is estimated to be about 25,000 acre-feet per year for the main part and 5,000 acre-feet per year for the Gunlock part. The primary source of recharge is assumed to be infiltration of precipitation in the main part and seepage from the Santa Clara River in the Gunlock part. The primary source of discharge is assumed to be well discharge for both the main and Gunlock parts of the aquifers. Numerical simulations indicate that faults with major offset, such as the Washington Hollow Fault and an unnamed fault near Anderson Junction, may impede horizontal ground-water flow. Also, increased horizontal hydraulic conductivity along the orientation of predominant surface fracturing may be an important factor in regional ground-water flow. Simulations with increased north-south hydraulic conductivity substantially improved the match to measured water levels in the central area of the model between Snow Canyon and Mill Creek. Numerical simulation of the Gunlock part, using aquifer properties determined for the city of St. George municipal well field, resulted in a reasonable representation of regional water levels and estimated seepage from and to the Santa Clara River. To further quantify the Gunlock part of the Navajo and Kayenta aquifers, a better understanding of ground-water flow at the Gunlock Fault is needed.

Geohydrology and numerical simulation of ground-water flow in the central Virgin River basin of Iron and Washington Countries, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heilweil, V.M.; Freethey, G.W.; Wilkowske, C.D.; Stolp, B.J.; Wilberg, D.E.

2000-01-01

Because rapid growth of communities in Washington and Iron Counties, Utah, is expected to cause an increase in the future demand for water resources, a hydrologic investigation was done to better understand ground-water resources within the central Virgin River basin. This study focused on two of the principal ground-water reservoirs within the basin: the upper Ash Creek basin ground-water system and the Navajo and Kayenta aquifer system. The ground-water system of the upper Ash Creek drainage basin consists of three aquifers: the uppermost Quaternary basin-fill aquifer, the Tertiary alluvial-fan aquifer, and the Tertiary Pine Valley monzonite aquifer. These aquifers are naturally bounded by the Hurricane Fault and by drainage divides. On the basis of measurements, estimates, and numerical simulations of reasonable values for all inflow and outflow components, total water moving through the upper Ash Creek drainage basin ground-water system is estimated to be about 14,000 acre-feet per year. Recharge to the upper Ash Creek drainage basin ground-water system is mostly from infiltration of precipitation and seepage from ephemeral and perennial streams. The primary source of discharge is assumed to be evapotranspiration; however, subsurface discharge near Ash Creek Reservoir also may be important. The character of two of the hydrologic boundaries of the upper Ash Creek drainage basin ground-water system is speculative. The eastern boundary provided by the Hurricane Fault is assumed to be a no-flow boundary, and a substantial part of the ground-water discharge from the system is assumed to be subsurface outflow beneath Ash Creek Reservoir along the southern boundary. However, these assumptions might be incorrect because alternative numerical simulations that used different boundary conditions also proved to be feasible. The hydrogeologic character of the aquifers is uncertain because of limited data. Difference in well yield indicate that there is considerable variability in the transmissivity of the basin-fill aquifer. Field data also indicate that the basin-fill aquifer is more transmissive than the underlying alluvial-fan aquifer. Data from the Pine Valley monzonite aquifer indicate that its transmissivity may be highly variable and that it is strongly influenced by the connection of fractures. The Navajo and Kayenta aquifers provide most of the potable water to the municipalities of Washington County. Because of large outcrop exposures, uniform grain size, and large stratigraphic thickness, these formations are able to receive and store large amounts of water. In additional, structural have resulted in extensive fracture zones that enhance ground-water recharge and movement within these aquifers. Aquifer testing of the Navajo aquifer indicates that horizontal hydraulic-conductivity values range from 0.2 to 32 feet per day at different locations and my be primarily dependent on the extent of fracturing. Limited data indicate that the Kayenta aquifer generally is less transmissive than the Navajo aquifer. The aquifers are bounded to the south and west by the erosional extent of the formations and to the east by the Hurricane Fault, which completely offsets these formations and is assumed to be a lateral no-flow boundary. Like the Hurricane Fault, the Gunlock Fault is assumed to be a lateral no-flow boundary that divides the Navajo and Kayenta aquifers within the study area into two parts: the main part, between the Hurricane and Gunlock Faults, and the Gunlock part, west of the Gunlock Fault. Generally, the water in the Vanajo and Kayenta aquifers contains few dissolved minerals. However, two distinct areas contain water with dissolved-solids concentrations greater than 500 milligrams per liter: a larger area north of the city of St. George and a smaller area of a few miles west of the town of Hurricane. Mass-balance calculations indicate that in the higher-dissolved-solids area north of St. George, as much as 2.7 cubic feet per second may be entering the aquifer from underlying formations. For the area west of Hurricane, as much as 1.5 cubic feet per second may be entering the aquifer from underlying formations. On the basis of measurements, estimates, and numerical simulations, total water moving through the Navajo and Kayenta aquifers is estimated to be about 25,000 acre-feet per year for the main part and 5,000 acre-feet per year for the Gunlock part. The primary source of recharge is assumed to be infiltration of precipitation in the main part and seepage from the Santa Clara River in the Gunlock part. The primary source of discharge is assumed to be a well discharge for both the main and Gunlock parts of the aquifers. Numerical simulations indicate that faults with major offset, such as the Washington Hollow Fault and an unnamed fault near Anderson Junction, may impede horizontal ground-water flow. Also, increased horizontal hydraulic conductivity along the orientation of predominant surface fracturing may be important factor in regional ground-water flow. Simulations with increased north-south hydraulic conductivity substantially improved the match to measured water levels in the central area of the model between Snow Canyon and Mill Creek. Numerical simulation of the Gunlock part, using aquifer properties determined for the city of St. George municipal well field, resulted in a reasonable representation of regional water levels and estimated seepage from and to the Santa Clara River. To quantify the Gunlock part of the Navajo and Kayenta aquifers, a better understanding of ground-water flow at the Gunlock Fault is needed.

Influences of Appalachian orography on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability associated with the passage of hurricane Isabel by ensemble simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oldaker, Guy; Liu, Liping; Lin, Yuh-Lang

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the heavy rainfall event associated with hurricane Isabel's (2003) passage over the Appalachian mountains of the eastern United States. Specifically, an ensemble consisting of two groups of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with and without topography, is performed to investigate the orographic influences on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability. In general, the simulated ensemble mean with full terrain is able to reproduce the key observed 24-h rainfall amount and distribution, while the flat-terrain mean lacks in this respect. In fact, 30-h rainfall amounts are reduced by 75% with the removal of topography. Rainfall variability is also significantly increased with the presence of orography. Further analysis shows that the complex interaction between the hurricane and terrain along with contributions from varied microphysics, cumulus parametrization, and planetary boundary layer schemes have a pronounced effect on rainfall and rainfall variability. This study follows closely with a previous study, but for a different TC case of Isabel (2003). It is an important sensitivity test for a different TC in a very different environment. This study reveals that the rainfall variability behaves similarly, even with different settings of the environment.

Sensitivity of Tropical-Cyclone Models to the Surface Drag Coefficient in Different Boundary-Layer Schemes

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-01

flight-level wind measurements at an altitude of about 500 m in hurricanes Allen (1980) and Hugo (1989) by Zhang et al. (2011). In Hugo these were... Hurricanes Allen (1980) and Hugo (1989). Mon. Weather Rev. 139: 1447–1462. c© 2013 Royal Meteorological Society Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 140: 792–804 (2014) ...in this direction. Key Words: hurricanes ; tropical cyclones; typhoons; surface drag coefficient; frictional drag; boundary layer Received 16 June 2010

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Models to the Surface Drag Coefficient in Different Boundary-Layer Schemes

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-20

altitude of about 500 m in Hurricanes Allen (1980) and Hugo (1989) by Zhang et al. (2010). In Hugo these were about 110 m2 s−1 beneath the eyewall...Marks FD Montgomery MT Lorsolo S. 2010 Estimation of turbulence characteristics of eyewall boundary layer of Hurricane Hugo (1989) Mon. Wea. Rev., in...University of Munich, Munich, Germany b Dept. of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA & NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division ∗Correspondence

Improved Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observations of Tropical Cyclones with the Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fernandez, D. Esteban; Chang, P.; Carswel, J.; Contreras, R.; Chu, T.; Asuzu, P.; Black, P.; Marks, F.

2006-01-01

The Imaging Wind and Rain Arborne Profilers (IWRAP) is a dual-frequency, conically-scanning Doppler radar that measures high-resolution, dual-polarized, multi-beam C- and Ku-band reflectivity and Doppler velocity profiles of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) within the inner core of hurricanes.From the datasets acquired during the 2002 through 20O5 hurricane seasons as part of the ONR Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer (CBLAST) program and the NOAA/NESDIS Ocean Winds and Rain experiments, very high resolution radar observations of hurricanes have been acquired and made available to the CBLAST community. Of particular interest am the ABL wind fields and 3-D structures found within the inner core of hurricanes. As a result of these analysis, a limitation in the ability to retrieve the ABL wind field at very low altitudes was identified. This paper shows how this limitation has been removed and presents initial results demonstrating its new capabilities to derive the ABL wind field within the inner are of hurricanes to much lower altitudes than the ones the original system was capable of.

Quantitative attribution of climate effects on Hurricane Harvey’s extreme rainfall in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Zhao, Lin; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Klotzbach, Phil; Gillies, Robert R.

2018-05-01

Hurricane Harvey made landfall in August 2017 as the first land-falling category 4 hurricane to hit the state of Texas since Hurricane Carla in September 1961. While its intensity at landfall was notable, most of the vast devastation in the Houston metropolitan area was due to Harvey stalling near the southeast Texas coast over the next several days. Harvey’s long-duration rainfall event was reminiscent of extreme flooding that occurred in the neighboring state of Louisiana: both of which were caused by a stalled tropical low-pressure system producing four days of intense precipitation. A quantitative attribution analysis of Harvey’s rainfall was conducted using a mesoscale atmospheric model forced by constrained boundary and initial conditions that had their long-term climate trends removed. The removal of the various trends of the boundary and initial conditions minimizes the effects of warming in the air and the ocean surface on Harvey. The 60 member ensemble simulations suggest that post-1980 climate warming could have contributed to the extreme precipitation that fell on southeast Texas during 26–29 August 2017 by approximately 20%, with an interquartile range of 13%–37%. While the attribution outcome could be model dependent, this downscaling approach affords the closest means possible of a case-to-case comparison for event attribution, complementing other statistics-based attribution studies on Harvey. Further analysis of a global climate model tracking Harvey-like stalling systems indicates an increase in storm frequency and intensity over southeast Texas through the mid-21st century.

An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 2-Hazard Modeling.

PubMed

Blanton, Brian; Dresback, Kendra; Colle, Brian; Kolar, Randy; Vergara, Humberto; Hong, Yang; Leonardo, Nicholas; Davidson, Rachel; Nozick, Linda; Wachtendorf, Tricia

2018-04-25

Hurricane track and intensity can change rapidly in unexpected ways, thus making predictions of hurricanes and related hazards uncertain. This inherent uncertainty often translates into suboptimal decision-making outcomes, such as unnecessary evacuation. Representing this uncertainty is thus critical in evacuation planning and related activities. We describe a physics-based hazard modeling approach that (1) dynamically accounts for the physical interactions among hazard components and (2) captures hurricane evolution uncertainty using an ensemble method. This loosely coupled model system provides a framework for probabilistic water inundation and wind speed levels for a new, risk-based approach to evacuation modeling, described in a companion article in this issue. It combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) hydrologic model, and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) storm surge, tide, and wind-wave model to compute inundation levels and wind speeds for an ensemble of hurricane predictions. Perturbations to WRF's initial and boundary conditions and different model physics/parameterizations generate an ensemble of storm solutions, which are then used to drive the coupled hydrologic + hydrodynamic models. Hurricane Isabel (2003) is used as a case study to illustrate the ensemble-based approach. The inundation, river runoff, and wind hazard results are strongly dependent on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulations, which improves with decreasing lead time to hurricane landfall. The ensemble envelope brackets the observed behavior while providing "best-case" and "worst-case" scenarios for the subsequent risk-based evacuation model. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Oceanographic, Air-sea Interaction, and Environmental Aspects of Artificial Upwelling Produced by Wave-Inertia Pumps for Potential Hurricane Intensity Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soloviev, A.; Dean, C.

2017-12-01

The artificial upwelling system consisting of the wave-inertia pumps driven by surface waves can produce flow of cold deep water to the surface. One of the recently proposed potential applications of the artificial upwelling system is the hurricane intensity mitigation. Even relatively small reduction of intensity may provide significant benefits. The ocean heat content (OHC) is the "fuel" for hurricanes. The OHC can be reduced by mixing of the surface layer with the cold water produced by wave-inertia pumps. Implementation of this system for hurricane mitigation has several oceanographic and air-sea interaction aspects. The cold water brought to the surface from a deeper layer has higher density than the surface water and, therefore, tends to sink back down. The mixing of the cold water produced by artificial upwelling depends on environmental conditions such as stratification, regional ocean circulation, and vertical shear. Another aspect is that as the sea surface temperature drops below the air temperature, the stable stratification develops in the atmospheric boundary layer. The stable atmospheric stratification suppresses sensible and latent heat air-sea fluxes and reduces the net longwave irradiance from the sea surface. As a result, the artificial upwelling may start increasing the OHC (though still reducing the sea surface temperature). In this work, the fate of the cold water in the stratified environment with vertical shear has been studied using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools. A 3D large eddy simulation model is initialized with observational temperature, salinity, and current velocity data from a sample location in the Straits of Florida. A periodic boundary condition is set along the direction of the current, which allows us to simulate infinite fetch. The model results indicate that the cold water brought to the sea surface by a wave-inertia pump forms a convective jet. This jet plunges into the upper ocean mixed layer and penetrates the thermocline. On the way down, the jet partially mixes with the surrounding water reducing the temperature of the upper ocean. The OHC thus can either reduce or increase, depending on the wave-inertia pump parameters. Based on the model results, we discuss feasibility of the implementation of the artificial upwelling system for hurricane intensity mitigation.

Intense sub-kilometer-scale boundary layer rolls observed in hurricane fran

PubMed

Wurman; Winslow

1998-04-24

High-resolution observations obtained with the Doppler On Wheels (DOW) mobile weather radar near the point of landfall of hurricane Fran (1996) revealed the existence of intense, sub-kilometer-scale, boundary layer rolls that strongly modulated the near-surface wind speed. It is proposed that these structures are one cause of geographically varying surface damage patterns that have been observed after some landfalling hurricanes and that they cause much of the observed gustiness, bringing high-velocity air from aloft to the lowest observable levels. High-resolution DOW radar observations are contrasted with lower-resolution observations obtained with an operational weather radar, which underestimated peak low-level wind speeds.

The Impact of Microphysics on Intensity and Structure of Hurricanes and Mesoscale Convective Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shi, Jainn J.; Jou, Ben Jong-Dao; Lee, Wen-Chau; Lin, Pay-Liam; Chang, Mei-Yu

2007-01-01

During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models, e.g. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with a 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation mesoscale forecast model and assimilation system that has incorporated modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numeric and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF model can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options such as Purdue Lin et al. (1983), WSM 6-class and Thompson microphysics schemes. We have recently implemented three sophisticated cloud microphysics schemes into WRF. The cloud microphysics schemes have been extensively tested and applied for different mesoscale systems in different geographical locations. The performances of these schemes have been compared to those from other WRF microphysics options. We are performing sensitivity tests in using WRF to examine the impact of six different cloud microphysical schemes on precipitation processes associated hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems developed at different geographic locations [Oklahoma (IHOP), Louisiana (Hurricane Katrina), Canada (C3VP - snow events), Washington (fire storm), India (Monsoon), Taiwan (TiMREX - terrain)]. We will determine the microphysical schemes for good simulated convective systems in these geographic locations. We are also performing the inline tracer calculation to comprehend the physical processes (i.e., boundary layer and each quadrant in the boundary layer) related to the development and structure of hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems.

Hurricane Katrina - Murphy Oil Spill Boundary

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked with FEMA and state and local agencies to respond to the emergencies throughout the Gulf.

High Resolution Modeling of Hurricanes in a Climate Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knutson, T. R.

2007-12-01

Modeling of tropical cyclone activity in a climate context initially focused on simulation of relatively weak tropical storm-like disturbances as resolved by coarse grid (200 km) global models. As computing power has increased, multi-year simulations with global models of grid spacing 20-30 km have become feasible. Increased resolution also allowed for simulation storms of increasing intensity, and some global models generate storms of hurricane strength, depending on their resolution and other factors, although detailed hurricane structure is not simulated realistically. Results from some recent high resolution global model studies are reviewed. An alternative for hurricane simulation is regional downscaling. An early approach was to embed an operational (GFDL) hurricane prediction model within a global model solution, either for 5-day case studies of particular model storm cases, or for "idealized experiments" where an initial vortex is inserted into an idealized environments derived from global model statistics. Using this approach, hurricanes up to category five intensity can be simulated, owing to the model's relatively high resolution (9 km grid) and refined physics. Variants on this approach have been used to provide modeling support for theoretical predictions that greenhouse warming will increase the maximum intensities of hurricanes. These modeling studies also simulate increased hurricane rainfall rates in a warmer climate. The studies do not address hurricane frequency issues, and vertical shear is neglected in the idealized studies. A recent development is the use of regional model dynamical downscaling for extended (e.g., season-length) integrations of hurricane activity. In a study for the Atlantic basin, a non-hydrostatic model with grid spacing of 18km is run without convective parameterization, but with internal spectral nudging toward observed large-scale (basin wavenumbers 0-2) atmospheric conditions from reanalyses. Using this approach, our model reproduces the observed increase in Atlantic hurricane activity (numbers, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), Power Dissipation Index (PDI), etc.) over the period 1980-2006 fairly realistically, and also simulates ENSO-related interannual variations in hurricane counts. Annual simulated hurricane counts from a two-member ensemble correlate with observed counts at r=0.86. However, the model does not simulate hurricanes as intense as those observed, with minimum central pressures of 937 hPa (category 4) and maximum surface winds of 47 m/s (category 2) being the most intense simulated so far in these experiments. To explore possible impacts of future climate warming on Atlantic hurricane activity, we are re-running the 1980- 2006 seasons, keeping the interannual to multidecadal variations unchanged, but altering the August-October mean climate according to changes simulated by an 18-member ensemble of AR4 climate models (years 2080- 2099, A1B emission scenario). The warmer climate state features higher Atlantic SSTs, and also increased vertical wind shear across the Caribbean (Vecchi and Soden, GRL 2007). A key assumption of this approach is that the 18-model ensemble-mean climate change is the best available projection of future climate change in the Atlantic. Some of the 18 global models show little increase in wind shear, or even a decrease, and thus there will be considerable uncertainty associated with the hurricane frequency results, which will require further exploration. Results from our simulations will be presented at the meeting.

Impact of Wind Shear Characteristics on Roll Structure in Idealized Hurricane Boundary Layers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Jiang, Q.

2016-12-01

The hurricane boundary layer (HBL) is well known for its critical role in evolutions of tropical cyclones (TCs) as the air-sea interaction represents both the most important source and sink of the moist available energy and the kinetic energy, respectively. One of the frequently occurring features in the HBL is horizontal roll vortices, which have quasi-two dimensional coherent and banded structure extending from the surface to the top of the HBL. It is believed that this highly coherent structure, caused by the inflection point instability in the basic wind profiles, plays an important role in organizing turbulent transport. To understand this role, large-eddy simulations are conducted to investigate how the wind shear characteristics such as the shear strength and inflection-point level can impact the roll structure in terms of its spectral characteristics and turbulence organization. A mean wind profile nudging approach is used in the simulations to maintain the required mean wind shear without directly affecting turbulent motions. Enhancing the radial wind shear expands the roll horizontal scale and strengthens the roll's kinetic energy. Increasing the inflection-point level tends to produce a narrow and sharp peak in the power spectrum at the wavelength consistent with the roll spacing indicated by the instantaneous turbulent fields. The spectral tangential momentum flux, in particular, reaches a strong peak value at the roll wavelength. In contrast, the spectral radial momentum flux obtains its maximum at the wavelength that is usually shorter than the roll's, suggesting that the roll radial momentum transport is less efficient than the tangential. The most robust rolls are produced in a simulation with the highest inflection-point level and strong radial wind shear. Based on the spectral analysis, the roll-scale contribution to the turbulent momentum flux can reach 40% in the middle of the boundary layer.

Warm-Core Intensification of a Hurricane Through Horizontal Eddy Heat Transports Inside the Eye

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Fulton, John; Nolan, David S.

2001-01-01

A simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991) using the PSU/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model with a finest mesh spacing of 1.3 km is used to diagnose the heat budget of the hurricane. Heat budget terms, including latent and radiative heating, boundary layer forcing, and advection terms were output directly from the model for a 6-h period with 2-min frequency. Previous studies of warm core formation have emphasized the warming associated with gentle subsidence within the eye. The simulation of Hurricane Bob also identifies subsidence warming as a major factor for eye warming, but also shows a significant contribution from horizontal advective terms. When averaged over the area of the eye, excluding the eyewall (at least in an azimuthal mean sense), subsidence is found to strongly warm the mid-troposphere (2-9 km) while horizontal advection warms the mid to upper troposphere (5-13 km) with about equal magnitude. Partitioning of the horizontal advective terms into azimuthal mean and eddy components shows that the mean radial circulation cannot, as expected, generally contribute to this warming, but that it is produced almost entirely by the horizontal eddy transport of heat into the eye. A further breakdown of the eddy components into azimuthal wave numbers 1, 2, and higher indicates that the warming is dominated by wave number 1 asymmetries, with smaller contributions coming from higher wave numbers. Warming by horizontal eddy transport is consistent with idealized modeling of vortex Rossby waves and work is in progress to identify and clarify the role of vortex Rossby waves in warm-core intensification in both the full-physics model and idealized models.

Hurricane Harvey Riverine Flooding: Part 2: Integration of Heterogeneous Earth Observation Data for Comparative Analysis with High-Resolution Inundation Boundaries Reconstructed from Flood2D-GPU Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, C.; Sava, E.; Cervone, G.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey has been noted as the wettest cyclone on record for the US as well as the most destructive (so far) for the 2017 hurricane season. An entire year worth of rainfall occurred over the course of a few days. The city of Houston was greatly impacted as the storm lingered over the city for five days, causing a record-breaking 50+ inches of rain as well as severe damage from flooding. Flood model simulations were performed to reconstruct the event in order to better understand, assess, and predict flooding dynamics for the future. Additionally, number of remote sensing platforms, and on ground instruments that provide near real-time data have also been used for flood identification, monitoring, and damage assessment. Although both flood models and remote sensing techniques are able to identify inundated areas, rapid and accurate flood prediction at a high spatio-temporal resolution remains a challenge. Thus a methodological approach which fuses the two techniques can help to better validate what is being modeled and observed. Recent advancements in data fusion techniques of remote sensing with near real time heterogeneous datasets have allowed emergency responders to more efficiently extract increasingly precise and relevant knowledge from the available information. In this work the use of multiple sources of contributed data, coupled with remotely sensed and open source geospatial datasets is demonstrated to generate an understanding of potential damage assessment for the floods after Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. The feasibility of integrating multiple sources at different temporal and spatial resolutions into hydrodynamic models for flood inundation simulations is assessed. Furthermore the contributed datasets are compared against a reconstructed flood extent generated from the Flood2D-GPU model.

A multi-scale ensemble-based framework for forecasting compound coastal-riverine flooding: The Hackensack-Passaic watershed and Newark Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh, F.; Ramaswamy, V.; Wang, Y.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A.; Pullen, J.

2017-12-01

Estuarine regions can experience compound impacts from coastal storm surge and riverine flooding. The challenges in forecasting flooding in such areas are multi-faceted due to uncertainties associated with meteorological drivers and interactions between hydrological and coastal processes. The objective of this work is to evaluate how uncertainties from meteorological predictions propagate through an ensemble-based flood prediction framework and translate into uncertainties in simulated inundation extents. A multi-scale framework, consisting of hydrologic, coastal and hydrodynamic models, was used to simulate two extreme flood events at the confluence of the Passaic and Hackensack rivers and Newark Bay. The events were Hurricane Irene (2011), a combination of inland flooding and coastal storm surge, and Hurricane Sandy (2012) where coastal storm surge was the dominant component. The hydrodynamic component of the framework was first forced with measured streamflow and ocean water level data to establish baseline inundation extents with the best available forcing data. The coastal and hydrologic models were then forced with meteorological predictions from 21 ensemble members of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) to retrospectively represent potential future conditions up to 96 hours prior to the events. Inundation extents produced by the hydrodynamic model, forced with the 95th percentile of the ensemble-based coastal and hydrologic boundary conditions, were in good agreement with baseline conditions for both events. The USGS reanalysis of Hurricane Sandy inundation extents was encapsulated between the 50th and 95th percentile of the forecasted inundation extents, and that of Hurricane Irene was similar but with caveats associated with data availability and reliability. This work highlights the importance of accounting for meteorological uncertainty to represent a range of possible future inundation extents at high resolution (∼m).

Turbulence and Coherent Structure in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer near the Eyewall of Hurricane Hugo (1989)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J. A.; Marks, F. D.; Montgomery, M. T.; Black, P. G.

2008-12-01

In this talk we present an analysis of observational data collected from NOAA'S WP-3D research aircraft during the eyewall penetration of category five Hurricane Hugo (1989). The 1 Hz flight level data near 450m above the sea surface comprising wind velocity, temperature, pressure and relative humidity are used to estimate the turbulence intensity and fluxes. In the turbulent flux calculation, the universal shape spectra and co-spectra derived using the 40 Hz data collected during the Coupled Boundary Layer Air-sea Transfer (CBLAST) Hurricane experiment are applied to correct the high frequency part of the data collected in Hurricane Hugo. Since the stationarity assumption required for standard eddy correlations is not always satisfied, different methods are summarized for computing the turbulence parameters. In addition, a wavelet analysis is conducted to investigate the time and special scales of roll vortices or coherent structures that are believed important elements of the eye/eyewall mixing processes that support intense storms.

How Unusual were Hurricane Harvey's Rains?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, K.

2017-12-01

We apply an advanced technique for hurricane risk assessment to evaluate the probability of hurricane rainfall of Harvey's magnitude. The technique embeds a detailed computational hurricane model in the large-scale conditions represented by climate reanalyses and by climate models. We simulate 3700 hurricane events affecting the state of Texas, from each of three climate reanalyses spanning the period 1980-2016, and 2000 events from each of six climate models for each of two periods: the period 1981-2000 from historical simulations, and the period 2081-2100 from future simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. On the basis of these simulations, we estimate that hurricane rain of Harvey's magnitude in the state of Texas would have had an annual probability of 0.01 in the late twentieth century, and will have an annual probability of 0.18 by the end of this century, with remarkably small scatter among the six climate models downscaled. If the event frequency is changing linearly over time, this would yield an annual probability of 0.06 in 2017.

Uncertainty and feasibility of dynamical downscaling for modeling tropical cyclones for storm surge simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Taraphdar, Sourav; Wang, Taiping

This paper presents a modeling study conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of a regional model in simulating hurricane wind and pressure fields, and the feasibility of driving coastal storm surge simulation using an ensemble of region model outputs produced by 18 combinations of three convection schemes and six microphysics parameterizations, using Hurricane Katrina as a test case. Simulated wind and pressure fields were compared to observed H*Wind data for Hurricane Katrina and simulated storm surge was compared to observed high-water marks on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The ensemble modeling analysis demonstrated that the regional model wasmore » able to reproduce the characteristics of Hurricane Katrina with reasonable accuracy and can be used to drive the coastal ocean model for simulating coastal storm surge. Results indicated that the regional model is sensitive to both convection and microphysics parameterizations that simulate moist processes closely linked to the tropical cyclone dynamics that influence hurricane development and intensification. The Zhang and McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme and the Lim and Hong (WDM6) microphysics parameterization are the most skillful in simulating Hurricane Katrina maximum wind speed and central pressure, among the three convection and the six microphysics parameterizations. Error statistics of simulated maximum water levels were calculated for a baseline simulation with H*Wind forcing and the 18 ensemble simulations driven by the regional model outputs. The storm surge model produced the overall best results in simulating the maximum water levels using wind and pressure fields generated with the ZM convection scheme and the WDM6 microphysics parameterization.« less

From DNS to RANS: A Multi-model workflow to understand the Influence of Hurricanes on Generating Turbidity Currents in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syvitski, J. P.; Arango, H.; Harris, C. K.; Meiburg, E. H.; Jenkins, C. J.; Auad, G.; Hutton, E.; Kniskern, T. A.; Radhakrishnan, S.

2016-12-01

A loosely coupled numerical workflow is developed to address land-sea pathways for sediment routing from terrestrial and coastal sources, across the continental shelf and ultimately down the continental slope canyon system of the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Model simulations represent a range of environmental conditions that might lead to the generation of turbidity-currents. The workflow comprises: 1) A simulator for the water and sediment discharged from rivers into the GOM with WMBsedv2 with calibration using USGS and USACE gauged river data; 2) Domain grids and bathymetry (ETOPO2) for the ocean models and realistic seabed sediment texture grids (dbSEABED) for the sediment transport models; 3) A spectral wave action simulator (10 km resolution) (WaveWatch III) driven by GFDL - GFS winds; 4) A simulator for ocean dynamics (ROMS) forced with ECMWF ERA winds; 5) A simulator for seafloor resuspension and transport (CSTMS); 6) Simulators (HurriSlip) of seafloor failure and flow ignition locations for boundary input to a turbidity current model; and 7) A RANS turbidity current model (TURBINS) to route sediment flows down GOM canyons, providing estimates of bottom shear stresses. TURBINS was developed first as a DNS model and then converted to an LES model wherein a dynamic turbulence closure scheme was employed. Like most DNS to LES model comparisons (these being done by the UCSB team), turbulence scaling allowed for higher Re applications but were found still not capable of simulating field scale (GOM continental canyons) environments. The LES model was next converted to a non-hydrostatic RANS model capable of field scale applications but only with a daisy-chain approach to multiple model runs along the simulated canyon floor. These model adaptations allowed the workflow to be tested for the year 1-Oct-2007 to 30-Sep-2008 that included two domain Hurricanes (Ike and Gustav). The RANS-TURBINS employed further boundary simplifications on both sediment erosion and deposition in line with the ocean model ROMS-CSTMS.

HAKOU v3: SWIMS Hurricane Inundation Fast Forecasting Tool for Hawaii

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-01

SUBTITLE HAKOU v3: SWIMS Hurricane Inundation Fast Forecasting Tool For Hawaii 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6...Coupled SWAN+ADCIRC were driven with wind and pressure fields generated by the planetary boundary layer model TC96 (Thompson and Cardone 1996...F., and V. J. Cardone . 1996. Practical modeling of hurricane surface wind fields. J. Waterw. Port C-ASCE. 122(4): 195-205. Zijlema, M. 2010

Variability of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency in a Large Ensemble of High-Resolution Climate Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, W.; Kamae, Y.; Xie, S. P.

2017-12-01

Forced and internal variability of North Atlantic hurricane frequency during 1951-2010 is studied using a large ensemble of climate simulations by a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model that is forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The simulations well capture the interannual-to-decadal variability of hurricane frequency in best track data, and further suggest a possible underestimate of hurricane counts in the current best track data prior to 1966 when satellite measurements were unavailable. A genesis potential index (GPI) averaged over the Main Development Region (MDR) accounts for more than 80% of the forced variations in hurricane frequency, with potential intensity and vertical wind shear being the dominant factors. In line with previous studies, the difference between MDR SST and tropical mean SST is a simple but useful predictor; a one-degree increase in this SST difference produces 7.1±1.4 more hurricanes. The hurricane frequency also exhibits internal variability that is comparable in magnitude to the interannual variability. The 100-member ensemble allows us to address the following important questions: (1) Are the observations equivalent to one realization of such a large ensemble? (2) How many ensemble members are needed to reproduce the variability in observations and in the forced component of the simulations? The sources of the internal variability in hurricane frequency will be identified and discussed. The results provide an explanation for the relatively week correlation ( 0.6) between MDR GPI and hurricane frequency on interannual timescales in observations.

Sensitivity of Tropical-Cyclone Intensification to Perturbations in the Surface Drag Coefficient

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-11

low-level region of intense hurricanes Allen (1980) and Hugo (1989). Mon. Weather Rev. 139: 1447–1462. c© 2012 Royal Meteorological Society Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 140: 407–415 (2014) ...accurately forecast tropical-cyclone intensification and mature intensity. Key Words: hurricanes ; typhoons; wind–wave coupling Received 2 February 2012...10.1002/qj.2048 1. Introduction The boundary layer of a mature hurricane has been long recognized to be an important feature of the storm as it strongly

Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Ning

Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is developed based on the theory of Poisson random measure, substantiated by a large amount of empirical data. An advanced vulnerability assessment methodology is then developed, by integrating this debris risk model and a component-based pressure damage model, to predict storm-specific or annual damage to coastal residential neighborhoods. The uniqueness of this vulnerability model lies in its detailed description of the interaction between wind pressure and windborne debris effects over periods of strong winds, which is a major mechanism leading to structural failures during hurricanes.

Estimation of turbulence characteristics of the low-level eyewall and outer-core regions in intense Hurricanes Allen (1980) and Hugo (1989)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J. A.; Marks, F. D.; Montgomery, M.; Lorsolo, S.

2010-12-01

Turbulent transport processes in the atmospheric boundary layer play an important role in the intensification and maintenance of a hurricane vortex. However, direct measurement of turbulence in the hurricane boundary layer has been scarce. This study analyzes the flight-level data collected by research aircraft that penetrated the eyewalls of Category 5 Hurricane Hugo (1989) and Category 4 Hurricane Allen (1980) between 1 km and the sea surface. Momentum flux, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and vertical eddy diffusivity are estimated before and during the eyewall penetrations. Spatial scales of turbulent eddies are determined through spectral analysis. The turbulence parameters estimated for the eyewall penetration leg are found to be nearly an order of magnitude larger than those for the leg outside the eyewall at similar altitudes. In the low-level intense eyewall region, the horizontal length scale of dominant turbulent eddies is found to be between 500 - 3000 m and the corresponding vertical length scale is approximately 100 - 200 m. The results suggest also that it is unwise to include the eyewall vorticity maximum (EVM) in the turbulence parameter estimation, since the EVMs are likely to be quasi two-dimensional vortex structures that are embedded within the three dimensional turbulence on the inside edge of the eyewall.

Inundation of a barrier island (Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, USA) during a hurricane: Observed water-level gradients and modeled seaward sand transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherwood, Christopher R.; Long, Joseph W.; Dickhudt, Patrick J.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

2014-07-01

Large geomorphic changes to barrier islands may occur during inundation, when storm surge exceeds island elevation. Inundation occurs episodically and under energetic conditions that make quantitative observations difficult. We measured water levels on both sides of a barrier island in the northern Chandeleur Islands during inundation by Hurricane Isaac. Wind patterns caused the water levels to slope from the bay side to the ocean side for much of the storm. Modeled geomorphic changes during the storm were very sensitive to the cross-island slopes imposed by water-level boundary conditions. Simulations with equal or landward sloping water levels produced the characteristic barrier island storm response of overwash deposits or displaced berms with smoother final topography. Simulations using the observed seaward sloping water levels produced cross-barrier channels and deposits of sand on the ocean side, consistent with poststorm observations. This sensitivity indicates that accurate water-level boundary conditions must be applied on both sides of a barrier to correctly represent the geomorphic response to inundation events. More broadly, the consequence of seaward transport is that it alters the relationship between storm intensity and volume of landward transport. Sand transported to the ocean side may move downdrift, or aid poststorm recovery by moving onto the beach face or closing recent breaches, but it does not contribute to island transgression or appear as an overwash deposit in the back-barrier stratigraphic record. The high vulnerability of the Chandeleur Islands allowed us to observe processes that are infrequent but may be important at other barrier islands.

Toward Skillful Subseasonal Prediction of North Atlantic Hurricanes with regionally-refined GFDL HiRAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, K.; Harris, L.; Chen, J. H.; Lin, S. J.

2017-12-01

Skillful subseasonal prediction of hurricane activity (from two weeks to less than a season) is important for early preparedness and reducing the hurricane damage in coastal regions. In this study, we will present evaluations of the performance of GFDL HiRAM (High-Resolution Atmospheric Model) for the simulation and prediction of the North Atlantic hurricane activity on the sub-seasonal time scale. A series of sub-seasonal (30-day duration) retrospective predictions were performed over the years 2000-2014 using two configurations of HiRAM: a) global uniform 25km-resolution grid and b) two-way nested grid with a 8km-resolution nest over North Atlantic. The analysis of hurricane structure from the two sets of simulations indicates the two-way-nesting method is an efficient way to improve the representation of hurricanes in global models: the two-way nested configuration produces realistic hurricane inner-core size and structure, which leads to improved lifetime maximum intensity distribution. Both configurations show very promising performance in the subseasonal hurricane genesis prediction, but the two-way nested configuration shows better performance in the prediction of major hurricane (Categories 3-5) activity because of the improved intensity simulation. We will also present the analysis of how the phase and magnitude of MJO, as well as the initial SST anomaly affect the model's prediction skill.

Simulating Turbulent Wind Fields for Offshore Turbines in Hurricane-Prone Regions (Poster)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Y.; Damiani, R.; Musial, W.

Extreme wind load cases are one of the most important external conditions in the design of offshore wind turbines in hurricane prone regions. Furthermore, in these areas, the increase in load with storm return-period is higher than in extra-tropical regions. However, current standards have limited information on the appropriate models to simulate wind loads from hurricanes. This study investigates turbulent wind models for load analysis of offshore wind turbines subjected to hurricane conditions. Suggested extreme wind models in IEC 61400-3 and API/ABS (a widely-used standard in oil and gas industry) are investigated. The present study further examines the wind turbinemore » response subjected to Hurricane wind loads. Three-dimensional wind simulator, TurbSim, is modified to include the API wind model. Wind fields simulated using IEC and API wind models are used for an offshore wind turbine model established in FAST to calculate turbine loads and response.« less

Hurricane Forecasts with a Global Mesoscale-resolving Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer Preliminary Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, B.-W.; Atlas, R.; Reale, O.; Chern, J.-D.; Li, S.-J.; Lee, T.; Chang, J.; Henze, C.; Yeh, K.-S.

2006-01-01

It is known that the General Circulation Models (GCMs) have sufficient resolution to accurately simulate hurricane near-eye structure and intensity. To overcome this limitation, the mesoscale-resolving finite-element GCM (fvGCM) has been experimentally deployed on the NASA Columbia supercomputer, and its performance is evaluated choosing hurricane Katrina as an example in this study. On late August 2005 Katrina underwent two stages of rapid intensification and became the sixth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic. Six 5-day simulations of Katrina at both 0.25 deg and 0.125 deg show comparable track forecasts, but the 0,125 deg runs provide much better intensity forecasts, producing center pressure with errors of only +/- 12 hPa. The 0.125 deg simulates better near-eye wind distributions and a more realistic average intensification rate. A convection parameterization (CP) is one of the major limitations in a GCM, the 0.125 deg run with CP disabled produces very encouraging results.

Importance of air-sea interaction on wind waves, storm surge and hurricane simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yingjian; Yu, Xiping

2017-04-01

It was reported from field observations that wind stress coefficient levels off and even decreases when the wind speed exceeds 30-40 m/s. We propose a wave boundary layer model (WBLM) based on the momentum and energy conservation equations. Taking into account the physical details of the air-sea interaction process as well as the energy dissipation due to the presence of sea spray, this model successfully predicts the decreasing tendency of wind stress coefficient. Then WBLM is embedded in the current-wave coupled model FVCOM-SWAVE to simulate surface waves and storm surge under the forcing of hurricane Katrina. Numerical results based on WBLM agree well with the observed data of NDBC buoys and tide gauges. Sensitivity analysis of different wind stress evaluation methods also shows that large anomalies of significant wave height and surge elevation are captured along the passage of hurricane core. The differences of the local wave height are up to 13 m, which is in accordance with the general knowledge that the ocean dynamic processes under storm conditions are very sensitive to the amount of momentum exchange at the air-sea interface. In the final part of the research, the reduced wind stress coefficient is tested in the numerical forecast of hurricane Katrina. A parabolic formula fitted to WBLM is employed in the atmosphere-ocean coupled model COAWST. Considering the joint effects of ocean cooling and reduced wind drag, the intensity metrics - the minimum sea level pressure and the maximum 10 m wind speed - are in good inconsistency with the best track result. Those methods, which predict the wind stress coefficient that increase or saturate in extreme wind condition, underestimate the hurricane intensity. As a whole, we unify the evaluation methods of wind stress in different numerical models and yield reasonable results. Although it is too early to conclude that WBLM is totally applicable or the drag coefficient does decrease for high wind speed, our current research is considered to be a significant step for the application of air-sea interaction on the ocean and atmosphere modelling.

Continued Analysis on Multiscale Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Formation, Structure Change and Predictability in the Western North Pacific Region as Part of the TCS08 DRI

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

Atmospheric Administration. The published paper was entitled “Structure of the Eye and Eyewall of Hurricane Hugo (1989) and was published in Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1237-1259. ...developments in tropical cyclone intensification theory A new paradigm of tropical cyclone intensification and hurricane boundary layer dynamics has been... Hurricane Rita (2005) show strong support for the second spin-up mechanism in the concentric eyewall lifecycle. Didlake and Houze (2011) found a

High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part 1; The Organization of Vertical Motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Pu, Zhaoxia

2003-01-01

Hurricanes are well known for their strong winds and heavy rainfall, particularly in the intense rainband (eyewall) surrounding the calmer eye of the storm. In some hurricanes, the rainfall is distributed evenly around the eye so that it has a donut shape on radar images. In other cases, the rainfall is concentrated on one side of the eyewall and nearly absent on the other side and is said to be asymmetric. This study examines how the vertical air motions that produce the rainfall are distributed within the eyewall of an asymmetric hurricane and the factors that cause this pattern of rainfall. We use a sophisticated numerical forecast model to simulate Hurricane Bonnie, which occurred in late August of 1998 during a special NASA field experiment designed to study hurricanes. The simulation results suggest that vertical wind shear (a rapid change in wind speed or direction with height) caused the asymmetric rainfall and vertical air motion patterns by tilting the hurricane vortex and favoring upward air motions in the direction of tilt. Although the rainfall in the hurricane eyewall may surround more than half of the eye, the updrafts that produce the rainfall are concentrated in very small-scale, intense updraft cores that occupy only about 10% of the eyewall area. The model simulation suggests that the timing and location of individual updraft cores are controlled by intense, small-scale vortices (regions of rapidly swirling flow) in the eyewall and that the updrafts form when the vortices encounter low-level air moving into the eyewall.

Warm-Core Intensification Through Horizontal Eddy Heat Transports into the Eye

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Fulton, John; Nolan, David S.; Starr, David OC (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991) using the PSU/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model with a finest mesh spacing of 1.3 km is used to diagnose the heat budget of the hurricane. Heat budget terms, including latent and radiative heating, boundary layer forcing, and advection terms were output directly from the model for a 6-h period with 2-min frequency. Previous studies of warm core formation have emphasized the warming associated with gentle subsidence within the eye. The simulation of Hurricane Bob confirms subsidence warming as a major factor for eye warming, but also shows a significant contribution from horizontal advective terms. When averaged over the area of the eye, subsidence is found to strongly warm the mid-troposphere (2-9 km) while horizontal advection warms the mid to upper troposphere (5-13 km) with about equal magnitude. Partitioning of the horizontal advective terms into azimuthal mean and eddy components shows that the mean radial circulation does not, as expected, generally contribute to this warming, but that it is produced almost entirely by the horizontal eddy transport of heat into the eye. A further breakdown of the eddy components into azimuthal wave numbers 1, 2, and higher indicates that the warming is dominated by wave number 1 asymmetries, with smaller coming from higher wave numbers. Warming by horizontal eddy transport is consistent with idealized modeling of vortex Rossby waves and work is in progress to identify and clarify the role of vortex Rossby waves in warm-core intensification in both the full-physics model and idealized models.

Model Simulations of Waves in Hurricane Juan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrie, W.; Toulany, B.; Padilla-Hernandez, R.; Hu, Y.; Smith, P.; Zhang, W.; Zou, Q.; Ren, X.

2004-05-01

Hurricane Juan made landfall at 0300 UTC near Halifax Nova Scotia. This was a category 2 hurricane with winds of 44 m/s, the largest storm to pass over these coastal areas in several decades. Associated high ocean waves were experienced in coastal waters, from Peggy's Cove to Sheet Harbour, growing to epic proportions on the Scotian Shelf, and exceeding the 100-year return wave based on the present climatology. As part of the GoMOOS program (Gulf of Maine Ocean Observing System, www.gomoos.org), winds from the USA Navy COAMPS (Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model Prediction System) were used to evaluate and compare three widely-used third generation numerical wave models, SWAN, WAM and WaveWatch-III (hereafter WW3) for accuracy, with in situ measurements. Model comparisons consist of a set of composite model systems, respectively nesting WAM, WW3 and SWAN in WAM and WW3. We report results from the intermediate-resolution grid for Hurricane Juan. Wave measurements were made using four operational deep-water buoys (C44258, C44142, C44137, 44005), by a conventional directional wave rider (DWR) moored offshore from Lunenburg Bay, and also by two acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) located (1) near an oil rig on Sable Island Bank, in relatively shallow water, and (2) near the outer boundary of Lunenburg Bay. We discuss the reliability of DWR wave data compared to ADCP wave data. We show that all models provide reliable hindcasts for significant wave height (Hs) and for peak period (Tp) for Juan, although a clear under-estimation of Hs at the peak of the storm is evident, compared to observations. A feature in the COAMPS storm simulation is that the storm track appears to be slightly to the east of that of Quikscat scatterometer data. Comparisons between models and 2-dimensional wave spectra are presented. Preliminary results suggest that the recently released upgrade to the WW3 model shows slightly enhanced skill compared to the other models.

Asymmetric Eyewall Vertical Motion in a High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Pu, Zhao-Xia

2003-01-01

This study examines a high-resolution simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Results from the simulation will be compared to the conceptual model of Heymsfield et al. (2001) to determine the extent to which this conceptual model explains vertical motions and precipitation growth in the eyewall.

Analysis of Dynamics in Bays and Coastal Waters Impacted by Hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.; Lin, H.; Chen, C.

2012-12-01

The dynamical processes in coastal bays/estuaries and continental shelf are mostly tidally and wind driven. Under severe weather conditions such as hurricanes and tropical storms, the process is much more dynamic and variable. In an attempt to illustrate the dynamical regimes in coastal bays and adjacent coastal ocean, we have simulated circulation and storm tides in the northern Gulf of Mexico forced by 49 hurricanes, respectively; among which 4 are the most recent real hurricanes: Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita of 2005, and Hurricane Gustav and Hurricane Ike of 2008. The other 45 hurricanes are hypothetical in their tracks, but based on the real hurricanes in terms of forcing conditions. More specifically, these 45 hurricanes are divided into five groups, each corresponding to one of these four real hurricanes plus a group for hypothetical Category 5 hurricanes, based on the information of Hurricane Katrina, except that the strength of the hurricane is increased to Category 5. Using otherwise the same forcing conditions of the hurricanes, we apply variations of each of the hurricane tracks with roughly the same moving speed. Each group has a total of 9 simulations (with 9 different tracks). Our model allows inundation of wetland, and low lying lands on the coast and around the Louisiana Bays. The model for the hurricane storm tide was done with an implementation of the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model, or FVCOM. Our analysis of the results reveals rich dynamical processes in the bays and estuaries and on the adjacent continental shelf. It involves various oscillations, depending on the hurricane conditions and track history and positions, long waves, under the influence of earth rotation, and currents. The protruding delta, bathymetry, and the setup of the bays all play some roles in shaping the dynamics, water movement, inundation, and receding of the storm surges.

Isentropic Analysis of a Simulated Hurricane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mrowiec, Agnieszka A.; Pauluis, Olivier; Zhang, Fuqing

2016-01-01

Hurricanes, like many other atmospheric flows, are associated with turbulent motions over a wide range of scales. Here the authors adapt a new technique based on the isentropic analysis of convective motions to study the thermodynamic structure of the overturning circulation in hurricane simulations. This approach separates the vertical mass transport in terms of the equivalent potential temperature of air parcels. In doing so, one separates the rising air parcels at high entropy from the subsiding air at low entropy. This technique filters out oscillatory motions associated with gravity waves and separates convective overturning from the secondary circulation. This approach is applied here to study the flow of an idealized hurricane simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The isentropic circulation for a hurricane exhibits similar characteristics to that of moist convection, with a maximum mass transport near the surface associated with a shallow convection and entrainment. There are also important differences. For instance, ascent in the eyewall can be readily identified in the isentropic analysis as an upward mass flux of air with unusually high equivalent potential temperature. The isentropic circulation is further compared here to the Eulerian secondary circulation of the simulated hurricane to show that the mass transport in the isentropic circulation is much larger than the one in secondary circulation. This difference can be directly attributed to the mass transport by convection in the outer rainband and confirms that, even for a strongly organized flow like a hurricane, most of the atmospheric overturning is tied to the smaller scales.

Unique Observations in Hurricane Maria (2017) using the Coyote Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bryan, G. H.; Cione, J.; Aksoy, A.; Baker, B.; Dahl, B. A.; de Boer, G.; Dobosy, R.; Dumas, E. J.; Fairall, C. W.; Farber, A. M.; Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Kalina, E. A.; Kent, B.; Klotz, B.; Lee, T.; Marks, F.; Ryan, K. E.; Troudt, C.; Wiggins, R.; Zawislak, J.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) collected valuable and highly unique data from six Coyote Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (UAS) deployed into Hurricane Maria on 22-24 September 2017. Using NOAA's crewed P-3 reconnaissance aircraft as a deployment vehicle, low-level observations of wind speed, wind direction, atmospheric pressure, temperature, moisture and sea surface temperature were measured and transmitted by the UAS. In all cases, high-definition observations collected by the Coyote were transmitted to NOAA's National Hurricane Center and made available to forecasters in near-real time. A brief synopsis of the data collected will be given. Highlights include: 1) the highest (to our knowledge) UAS-measured wind speed in a hurricane (64 m/s at 340 m above sea level); 2) record endurance for a Coyote UAS mission in a hurricane (42 minutes); and 3) high-frequency (>2 Hz) measurements in the hurricane boundary layer, which allow for calculations of turbulence intensity. Plans for data analysis and future UAS deployments in hurricanes will also be discussed.

A Markov Environment-dependent Hurricane Intensity Model and Its Comparison with Multiple Dynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, R.; Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.

2017-12-01

A Markov environment-dependent hurricane intensity model (MeHiM) is developed to simulate the climatology of hurricane intensity given the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved discrete states representing respectively storm's slow, moderate, and rapid intensification (and deintensification). Each state is associated with a probability distribution of intensity change. The storm's movement from one state to another, regarded as a Markov chain, is described by a transition probability matrix. The initial state is estimated with a Bayesian approach. All three model components (initial intensity, state transition, and intensity change) are dependent on environmental variables including potential intensity, vertical wind shear, midlevel relative humidity, and ocean mixing characteristics. This dependent Markov model of hurricane intensity shows a significant improvement over previous statistical models (e.g., linear, nonlinear, and finite mixture models) in estimating the distributions of 6-h and 24-h intensity change, lifetime maximum intensity, and landfall intensity, etc. Here we compare MeHiM with various dynamical models, including a global climate model [High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model (HiFLOR)], a regional hurricane model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model), and a simplified hurricane dynamic model [Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System (CHIPS)] and its newly developed fast simulator. The MeHiM developed based on the reanalysis data is applied to estimate the intensity of simulated storms to compare with the dynamical-model predictions under the current climate. The dependences of hurricanes on the environment under current and future projected climates in the various models will also be compared statistically.

Hurricane Mountain Formation melange: history of Cambro-Ordovician accretion of the Boundary Mountains terrane within the northern Appalachian orthotectonic zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boone, G.M.; Boudette, E.L.

1985-01-01

The Hurricane Mountain Formation (HMF) melange and associated ophiolitic and volcanogenic formations of Cambrian and lowermost Ordovician age bound the SE margin of the Precambrian Y (Helikian) Chain Lakes Massif in western Maine. HMF melange matrix, though weakly metamorphosed, contains a wide variety of exotic greenschist to amphibolite facies blocks as components of its polymictic assemblage, but blocks of high-grade cratonal rocks such as those of Chain Lakes or Grenville affinity are lacking. Formations of melange exposed in structural culminations of Cambrian and Ordovician rocks NE of the HMF in Maine and in the Fournier Group in New Brunswick aremore » lithologically similar and probably tectonically correlative with the HMF; taken together, they may delineate a common pre-Middle Ordovician tectonic boundary. The authors infer that the Hurricane Mountain and St. Daniel melange belts define the SE and NW margins of the Boundary Mountains accreted terrane (BMT), which may consist of cratonal basement of Chain Lakes affinity extending from eastern Gaspe (deBroucker and St. Julien, 1985) to north-central New Hampshire. The Laurentian continental margin, underlain by Grenville basement, underplated the NW margin of this terrane, marked by the SDF suture zone, in late Cambrian to early Ordovician time, while terranes marked by Cambrian to Tremadocian (.) lithologies dissimilar to the Boundary Mountains terrane were accreted to its outboard margin penecontemporaneously. The docking of the Boundary Mountains terrane and the initiation of its peripheral melanges are equated to the Penobscottian disturbance.« less

An OSSE on Mesoscale Model Assimilation of Simulated HIRAD-Observed Hurricane Surface Winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albers, Cerese; Miller, Timothy; Uhlhorn, Eric; Krishnamurti, T. N.

2012-01-01

The hazards of landfalling hurricanes are well known, but progress on improving the intensity forecasts of these deadly storms at landfall has been slow. Many cite a lack of high-resolution data sets taken inside the core of a hurricane, and the lack of reliable measurements in extreme conditions near the surface of hurricanes, as possible reasons why even the most state-of-the-art forecasting models cannot seem to forecast intensity changes better. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for observing hurricanes, and is operated and researched by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in partnership with the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida, the University of Michigan, and the University of Alabama in Huntsville. This instrument?s purpose is to study the wind field of a hurricane, specifically observing surface wind speeds and rain rates, in what has traditionally been the most difficult areas for other instruments to study; the high wind and heavy rain regions. Dr. T. N. Krishnamurti has studied various data assimilation techniques for hurricane and monsoon rain rates, and this study builds off of results obtained from utilizing his style of physical initializations of rainfall observations, but obtaining reliable observations in heavy rain regions has always presented trouble to our research of high-resolution rainfall forecasting. Reliable data from these regions at such a high resolution and wide swath as HIRAD provides is potentially very valuable to mesoscale forecasting of hurricane intensity. This study shows how the data assimilation technique of Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to incorporate wind, and later rain rate, data into a mesoscale model forecast of hurricane intensity. The study makes use of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) with a simulated HIRAD dataset sampled during a hurricane and uses EnKF to forecast the track and intensity prediction of the hurricane. Comparisons to truth and error metrics are used to assess the model?s forecast performance.

OSSE Evaluation of Aircraft Reconnaissance Observations and their Impact on Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, K. E.; Bucci, L. R.; Delgado, J.; Atlas, R. M.; Murillo, S.; Dodge, P.

2016-12-01

NOAA/AOML's Hurricane Research Division (HRD) annually conducts its Hurricane Field Program during which observations are collected via NOAA aircraft to improve the understanding and prediction of hurricanes. Mission experiments suggest a variety of flight patterns and sampling strategies aimed towards their respective goals described by the Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX; Rogers et al., BAMS, 2006, 2013), a collaborative effort among HRD, NHC, and EMC. Evaluating the potential impact of various trade-offs in track design is valuable for determining the optimal air reconnaissance flight pattern for a prospective mission. AOML's HRD has developed a system for performing regional Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) to assess the potential impact of proposed observing systems on hurricane track and intensity forecasts and analyses. This study focuses on investigating the potential impact of proposed aircraft reconnaissance observing system designs. Aircraft instrument and flight level retrievals were simulated from a regional WRF ARW Nature Run (Nolan et al., 2013) spanning 13 days, covering the life cycle of a rapidly intensifying Atlantic tropical cyclone. The aircraft trajectories of NOAA aircraft are simulated in a variety of ways and are evaluated to examine the potential impact of aircraft reconnaissance observations on hurricane track and intensity forecasts.

OSSE Evaluation of Prospective Aircraft Reconnaissance Flight Patterns and their Impact on Hurricane Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, K. E.; Bucci, L. R.; Christophersen, H.; Atlas, R. M.; Murillo, S.; Dodge, P.

2015-12-01

Each year, NOAA/AOML's Hurricane Research Division (HRD) conducts its Hurricane field Program in which observations are collected via NOAA aircraft to improve the understanding and prediction of hurricanes. Mission experiments suggest a variety of flight patterns and sampling strategies aimed towards their respective goals described by the Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX; Rogers et al., BAMS, 2006, 2013), a collaborative effort among HRD, NHC, and EMC. Evaluating the potential impact of various trade-offs in design is valuable for determining the optimal air reconnaissance flight pattern for a given prospective mission. AOML's HRD has developed a system for performing regional Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) to assess the potential impact of proposed observing systems on hurricane track and intensity forecasts and analyses. This study focuses on investigating the potential impact of proposed aircraft reconnaissance observing system designs. Aircraft instrument and flight level retrievals were simulated from a regional WRF ARW Nature Run (Nolan et al., 2013) spanning 13 days, covering the life cycle of a rapidly intensifying Atlantic tropical cyclone. The aircraft trajectories are simulated in a variety of ways and are evaluated to investigate the potential impact of aircraft reconnaissance observations on hurricane track and intensity forecasts.

Gusts and Shear in an Idealized LES-modeled Hurricane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worsnop, R.; Lundquist, J. K.; Bryan, G. H.; Damiani, R.; Musial, W.

2016-12-01

Tropical cyclone winds can cause extreme loading and damage to coastal structures such as buildings and energy infrastructure. Offshore wind energy development is underway along the US East Coast where hurricanes pose a substantial risk. Understanding wind gusts, gust factor, shear, and veer in the hurricane boundary layer (HBL) can help manufacturers assess risk and design wind turbines to better withstand these extreme wind conditions. Because of the paucity of observational data at low-levels (200 m and below), we use the Cloud Model Version I (CM1) large-eddy simulation numerical model to simulate high spatial- (10 m) and temporal- (0.1 s) resolution data. This unique dataset is used to answer the following questions: do severe mean wind speeds and gusts that exceed current design limits occur?; how does the gust factor vary with distance from the eye?; and lastly, how does wind direction vary horizontally and with height? We find that mean winds and gusts near the eyewall can exceed current turbine design thresholds of 50 m s-1 and 70 m s-1, respectively. Gust factors are greatest at the eye-eyewall interface just inward of the peak gust location and can exceed the 1.4 value used to convert a 50 m s-1 reference wind speed to a 50-year 3-second gust. Strong veer (15-30 degrees) across a 120 m-layer suggests that veer should be assessed against standard design prescriptions. Lastly, wind directions can shift 10-25 degrees in durations shorter than 10 minutes, which can challenge structures designed to endure winds from a consistent direction for periods longer than 10 minutes, including wind turbines.

Prototype of an Integrated Hurricane Information System for Research: Description and Illustration of its Use in Evaluating WRF Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hristova-Veleva, S.; Chao, Y.; Vane, D.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Li, P. P.; Knosp, B.; Vu, Q. A.; Su, H.; Dang, V.; Fovell, R.; Tanelli, S.; Garay, M.; Willis, J.; Poulsen, W.; Fishbein, E.; Ao, C. O.; Vazquez, J.; Park, K. J.; Callahan, P.; Marcus, S.; Haddad, Z.; Fetzer, E.; Kahn, R.

2007-12-01

In spite of recent improvements in hurricane track forecast accuracy, currently there are still many unanswered questions about the physical processes that determine hurricane genesis, intensity, track and impact on large- scale environment. Furthermore, a significant amount of work remains to be done in validating hurricane forecast models, understanding their sensitivities and improving their parameterizations. None of this can be accomplished without a comprehensive set of multiparameter observations that are relevant to both the large- scale and the storm-scale processes in the atmosphere and in the ocean. To address this need, we have developed a prototype of a comprehensive hurricane information system of high- resolution satellite, airborne and in-situ observations and model outputs pertaining to: i) the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of the storms; ii) the air-sea interaction processes; iii) the larger-scale environment as depicted by the SST, ocean heat content and the aerosol loading of the environment. Our goal was to create a one-stop place to provide the researchers with an extensive set of observed hurricane data, and their graphical representation, together with large-scale and convection-resolving model output, all organized in an easy way to determine when coincident observations from multiple instruments are available. Analysis tools will be developed in the next step. The analysis tools will be used to determine spatial, temporal and multiparameter covariances that are needed to evaluate model performance, provide information for data assimilation and characterize and compare observations from different platforms. We envision that the developed hurricane information system will help in the validation of the hurricane models, in the systematic understanding of their sensitivities and in the improvement of the physical parameterizations employed by the models. Furthermore, it will help in studying the physical processes that affect hurricane development and impact on large-scale environment. This talk will describe the developed prototype of the hurricane information systems. Furthermore, we will use a set of WRF hurricane simulations and compare simulated to observed structures to illustrate how the information system can be used to discriminate between simulations that employ different physical parameterizations. The work described here was performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics ans Space Administration.

'Towers in the Tempest' Computer Animation Submission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shirah, Greg

2008-01-01

The following describes a computer animation that has been submitted to the ACM/SIGGRAPH 2008 computer graphics conference: 'Towers in the Tempest' clearly communicates recent scientific research into how hurricanes intensify. This intensification can be caused by a phenomenon called a 'hot tower.' For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex atmospheric simulations at a very fine temporal resolution of 3 minutes. Combining this simulation data with satellite observations enables detailed study of 'hot towers.' The science of 'hot towers' is described using: satellite observation data, conceptual illustrations, and a volumetric atmospheric simulation data. The movie starts by showing a 'hot tower' observed by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft's three dimensional precipitation radar data of Hurricane Bonnie. Next, the dynamics of a hurricane and the formation of 'hot towers' are briefly explained using conceptual illustrations. Finally, volumetric cloud, wind, and vorticity data from a supercomputer simulation of Hurricane Bonnie are shown using volume techniques such as ray marching.

Hydrography and bottom boundary layer dynamics: Influence on inner shelf sediment mobility, Long Bay, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, L.A.; Leonard, L.A.; Snedden, G.A.

2008-01-01

This study examined the hydrography and bottom boundary-layer dynamics of two typical storm events affecting coastal North Carolina (NC); a hurricane and the passages of two small consecutive extratropical storms during November 2005. Two upward-looking 1200-kHz Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) were deployed on the inner shelf in northern Long Bay, NC at water depths of less than 15 m. Both instruments profiled the overlying water column in 0.35 in bins beginning at a height of 1.35 in above the bottom (mab). Simultaneous measurements of wind speed and direction, wave and current parameters, and acoustic backscatter were coupled with output from a bottom boundary layer (bbl) model to describe the hydrography and boundary layer conditions during each event. The bbl model also was used to quantify sediment transport in the boundary layer during each storm. Both study sites exhibited similar temporal variations in wave and current magnitude, however, wave heights during the November event were higher than waves associated with the hurricane. Near-bottom mean and subtidal currents, however, were of greater magnitude during the hurricane. Peak depth-integrated suspended sediment transport during the November event exceeded transport associated with the hurricane by 25-70%. Substantial spatial variations in sediment transport existed throughout both events. During both events, along-shelf sediment transport exceeded across-shelf transport and was related to the magnitude and direction of subtidal currents. Given the variations in sediment type across the bay, complex shoreline configuration, and local bathymetry, the sediment transport rates reported here are very site specific. However, the general hydrography associated with the two storms is representative of conditions across northern Long Bay. Since the beaches in the study area undergo frequent renourishment to counter the effects of beach erosion, the results of this study also are relevant to coastal management decision-making. Specifically, these issues include 1) identification of municipalities that should share the cost for renourishment given the likelihood for significant along-shelf sand movement and 2) appropriate timing of sand placement with respect to local climatology and sea-turtle nesting restrictions.

Disruption of the air-sea interface and formation of two-phase transitional layer in hurricane conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soloviev, A.; Matt, S.; Fujimura, A.

2012-04-01

The change of the air-sea interaction regime in hurricane conditions is linked to the mechanism of direct disruption of the air-sea interface by pressure fluctuations working against surface tension forces (Soloviev and Lukas, 2010). The direct disruption of the air-sea interface due to the Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability and formation of a two-phase transitional layer have been simulated with a computational fluid dynamics model. The volume of fluid multiphase model included surface tension at the water-air interface. The model was initialized with either a flat interface or short wavelets. Wind stress was applied at the upper boundary of the air layer, ranging from zero stress to hurricane force stress in different experiments. Under hurricane force wind, the numerical model demonstrated disruption of the air-water interface and the formation of spume and the two-phase transition layer. In the presence of a transition layer, the air-water interface is no longer explicitly identifiable. As a consequence, the analysis of dimensions suggests a linear dependence for velocity and logarithm of density on depth (which is consistent with the regime of marginal stability in the transition layer). The numerical simulations confirmed the presence of linear segments in the corresponding profiles within the transition layer. This permitted a parameterization of the equivalent drag coefficient due to the presence of the two-phase transition layer at the air-sea interface. This two-phase layer parameterization represented the lower limit imposed on the drag coefficient under hurricane conditions. The numerical simulations helped to reduce the uncertainty in the critical Richardson number applicable to the air-sea interface and in the values of two dimensionless constants; this reduced the uncertainty in the parameterization of the lower limit on the drag coefficient. The available laboratory data (Donelan et al., 2004) are bounded by the two-phase layer parameterization from below and the wave resistance parameterization from above. The available field data (Powell et al., 2003; Black et al., 2007) fall between these two parameterizations, for wind speeds of up to 50 m/s. A few points from the dropsonde data from Powell et al. (2003), obtained at very high wind speeds, are below the theoretical lower limit on the drag coefficient. We also conducted a numerical experiment with imposed short wavelets. Streamwise coherent structures were observed on the water surface, which were especially prominent on the top of wave crests. These intermittent streamwise structures on the top of wavelets, with periodicity in the transverse direction, presumably were a result of the Tollmien-Schlichting (TS) instability. Similar processes take place at the atomization of liquid fuels in cryogenic and diesel engines (Yecko et al., 2002). According to McNaughton and Brunet (2002), the nonlinear stage of the TS instability results in streamwise streaks followed by fluid ejections. This mechanism can contribute to the generation of spume in the form of streaks. Foam streaks are an observable feature on photographic images of the ocean surface under hurricane conditions. The mechanism of the TS instability can also contribute to dispersion of oil spills and other pollutants in hurricane conditions.

Using Instrument Simulators and a Satellite Database to Evaluate Microphysical Assumptions in High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Rita

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Chao, Y.; Chau, A. H.; Haddad, Z. S.; Knosp, B.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Li, P.; Martin, J. M.; Poulsen, W. L.; Rodriguez, E.; Stiles, B. W.; Turk, J.; Vu, Q.

2009-12-01

Improving forecasting of hurricane intensity remains a significant challenge for the research and operational communities. Many factors determine a tropical cyclone’s intensity. Ultimately, though, intensity is dependent on the magnitude and distribution of the latent heating that accompanies the hydrometeor production during the convective process. Hence, the microphysical processes and their representation in hurricane models are of crucial importance for accurately simulating hurricane intensity and evolution. The accurate modeling of the microphysical processes becomes increasingly important when running high-resolution models that should properly reflect the convective processes in the hurricane eyewall. There are many microphysical parameterizations available today. However, evaluating their performance and selecting the most representative ones remains a challenge. Several field campaigns were focused on collecting in situ microphysical observations to help distinguish between different modeling approaches and improve on the most promising ones. However, these point measurements cannot adequately reflect the space and time correlations characteristic of the convective processes. An alternative approach to evaluating microphysical assumptions is to use multi-parameter remote sensing observations of the 3D storm structure and evolution. In doing so, we could compare modeled to retrieved geophysical parameters. The satellite retrievals, however, carry their own uncertainty. To increase the fidelity of the microphysical evaluation results, we can use instrument simulators to produce satellite observables from the model fields and compare to the observed. This presentation will illustrate how instrument simulators can be used to discriminate between different microphysical assumptions. We will compare and contrast the members of high-resolution ensemble WRF model simulations of Hurricane Rita (2005), each member reflecting different microphysical assumptions. We will use the geophysical model fields as input to instrument simulators to produce microwave brightness temperatures and radar reflectivity at the TRMM (TMI and PR) frequencies and polarizations. We will also simulate the surface backscattering cross-section at the QuikSCAT frequency, polarizations and viewing geometry. We will use satellite observations from TRMM and QuikSCAT to determine those parameterizations that yield a realistic forecast and those parameterizations that do not. To facilitate hurricane research, we have developed the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS), which includes a comprehensive set of multi-sensor observations relevant to large-scale and storm-scale processes in the atmosphere and the ocean. In this presentation, we will illustrate how the TCIS can be used for hurricane research. The work described here was performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

The Impacts of Aerosols on Hurricane Katrina under the Effect of Air-Sea Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y.; Hsieh, J. S.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, R.

2017-12-01

Aerosols can affect the development of tropical cyclones, which often involve intense interactions with the ocean. Therefore, the impacts of aerosols on the tropical cyclones are reckoned closely associated with the effect of ocean feedback, a priori, which has often been omitted by most of the previous modeling studies about the aerosol effects on tropical cyclones. We investigate the synergetic effects of aerosols and ocean feedback on the development of hurricane Katrina using a convection-resolving coupled regional model (WRF-ROMS). In comparison with observations, our coupled simulation under pristine aerosol condition well captures the pressure drop near the center of Katrina with maximum mean sea level pressure in good agreement with the observation albeit the simulated maximal wind speed is relatively weaker than the observation. Preliminary results suggest that the ocean feedback tends to work with (against) aerosols to suppress (enhance) the hurricane's center pressure drop/maximum wind intensity at the developing (decaying) stage, suggesting a positive (negative) feedback to the aerosols' suppression effect on hurricanes. Moreover, the size of the simulated hurricane considerably expands due to the elevated polluted aerosols while the expansion is weakened, along with the increased precipitation, by the effect of air-sea interactions during the developing stage, which demonstrates intricate nonlinear interactions between aerosols, the hurricane and the ocean.

XBeach and CSHORE Numerical Model Assessment of the Beach and Foredune Morphodynamic Response of a Barrier Island during Hurricane Storm Surge Inundation - Folletts Island Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figlus, J.

2016-02-01

More than 400 barrier islands line the United States coasts providing a first line of defense against surge and wave attack during extreme storm events. While some pre- and post-storm topography and bathymetry data of barrier islands inundated during a storm exist, very little information is available to help understand the complex hydrodynamic and morphodynamic processes during storm impact. These processes are crucial to understanding sediment budgets, potential threats to infrastructure and best coastal management practices for specific locations. Follett's Island (FI) is a low-lying sediment-starved barrier island located on the Upper Texas Coast, a stretch of coastline along the Gulf of Mexico experiencing on average four hurricanes and four tropical cyclones per decade. During Hurricane Ike, water levels and wave heights at FI exceeded the 100-year and 40-year return values, respectively. This caused the island to undergo a sequence of four distinct interaction regimes, including impact, overtopping, inundation, and storm surge ebb. Each regime caused unique morphology changes to the island. The physical processes governing the real-time morphodynamic response of the beach and dune system during 96 hours of hurricane impact were modeled using XBeach (2D) and CSHORE (1D). Hydrodynamic boundary conditions were obtained from ADCIRC/SWAN model runs validated with measured buoy and wave gauge data while LiDAR surveys provided pre- and post-storm measured topography. XBeach displayed a decent model skill and was very useful in qualitatively visualizing erosion and deposition patterns during each regime. CSHORE also displayed a decent model skill and was able to accurately predict the post-storm beach slope and shoreline, but was less effective at simulating the foredune morphology. Modeling results show that the complete morphodynamic response of FI to Hurricane Ike was far more complex than suggested by only before and after storm topography surveys.

Generation of Plausible Hurricane Tracks for Preparedness Exercises

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-25

wind extents are simulated by Poisson regression and temporal filtering . The un-optimized MATLAB code runs in less than a minute and is integrated into...of real hurricanes. After wind radii have been simulated for the entire track, median filtering , attenuation over land, and smoothing clean up the wind

Shear and Turbulence Estimates for Calculation of Wind Turbine Loads and Responses Under Hurricane Strength Winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosovic, B.; Bryan, G. H.; Haupt, S. E.

2012-12-01

Schwartz et al. (2010) recently reported that the total gross energy-generating offshore wind resource in the United States in waters less than 30m deep is approximately 1000 GW. Estimated offshore generating capacity is thus equivalent to the current generating capacity in the United States. Offshore wind power can therefore play important role in electricity production in the United States. However, most of this resource is located along the East Coast of the United States and in the Gulf of Mexico, areas frequently affected by tropical cyclones including hurricanes. Hurricane strength winds, associated shear and turbulence can affect performance and structural integrity of wind turbines. In a recent study Rose et al. (2012) attempted to estimate the risk to offshore wind turbines from hurricane strength winds over a lifetime of a wind farm (i.e. 20 years). According to Rose et al. turbine tower buckling has been observed in typhoons. They concluded that there is "substantial risk that Category 3 and higher hurricanes can destroy half or more of the turbines at some locations." More robust designs including appropriate controls can mitigate the risk of wind turbine damage. To develop such designs good estimates of turbine loads under hurricane strength winds are essential. We use output from a large-eddy simulation of a hurricane to estimate shear and turbulence intensity over first couple of hundred meters above sea surface. We compute power spectra of three velocity components at several distances from the eye of the hurricane. Based on these spectra analytical spectral forms are developed and included in TurbSim, a stochastic inflow turbulence code developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL, http://wind.nrel.gov/designcodes/preprocessors/turbsim/). TurbSim provides a numerical simulation including bursts of coherent turbulence associated with organized turbulent structures. It can generate realistic flow conditions that an operating turbine would encounter under hurricane strength winds. These flow fields can be used to estimate wind turbine loads and responses with AeroDyn (http://wind.nrel.gov/designcodes/simulators/aerodyn/) and FAST (http://wind.nrel.gov/designcodes/simulators/fast/) codes also developed by NREL.

Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

PubMed Central

Tuluri, Francis; Reddy, R. Suseela; Anjaneyulu, Y.; Colonias, John; Tchounwou, Paul

2010-01-01

Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane) began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF) simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax) using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained at the equilibrium level (EL), from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS) for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes. PMID:20623002

Observations From the Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer Experiment in Hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, P. G.

2006-12-01

The CBLAST field program conducted from 2002-2004 has shown that the wind speed range for which turbulent momentum and moisture exchange coefficients have been derived based upon direct flux measurements has been extended by 30 and 60 percent, respectively, from airborne observations in Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel in 2003. The drag coefficient (CD) values derived from CBLAST momentum flux measurements show CD becoming invariant with wind speed near a 23 ms-1 threshold rather than a hurricane-force threshold near 33 ms-1. Values above 23 ms-1 are lower than previous open ocean measurements. The Dalton number estimates (CE) derived from CBLAST moisture flux measurements are shown to be invariant with wind speed to 30 ms-1, in approximate agreement with previous measurements at lower winds. These observations imply a CE/CD ratio of approximately 0.7, suggesting that additional energy sources are necessary for hurricanes to achieve their maximum potential intensity. Two such additional mechanisms for augmented moisture flux in the boundary layer might be 1) augmented wave breaking by short-crested, fetch limited waves suggested by whitecap aerial coverage measurements, and 2) sea spray at high winds suggested by laboratory spray source function measurements. Linear coherent features in the hurricane boundary layer are a third mechanism, observed during CBLAST 2002 aircraft measurements, to have wavelengths of 0.9 to 1.2 km. Linear features of the same wavelength range were observed in nearly-concurrent RADARSAT Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery. Arrays of drifting buoys and subsurface floats were successfully deployed ahead of Hurricanes Fabian (2003) and Frances (2004): 16 (6) and 38 (14) drifters (floats). Two types of surface drifters and three types of floats provided observations of surface and subsurface oceanic currents, temperature, salinity, gas exchange, bubble concentrations and surface wave spectra to a depth of 200 m on a continuous basis before, during and after storm passage. Float observations indicated deepening of the mixed layer from 40 to 120 m in approximately 8 hr with a corresponding decrease in SST in the right-rear quadrant of 3.2 ºC in 11 hr, roughly one-half inertial period. Strong inertial currents with a peak amplitude of 1.5 ms-1 were observed. Vertical structure showed the critical Richardson number was reached sporadically during the mixed-layer deepening event, suggesting shear-induced mixing as a prominent mechanism during storm passage.

Using Simulations To Improve Cognitive Reasoning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGee, Steven; Corriss, Darlene; Shia, Regina

This study investigated changes in students' cognitive reasoning as they analyzed the dynamics of a rainforest ecosystem (El Yunque) in the aftermath of a hurricane in Puerto Rico. Students explore the virtual rainforest to study what happened to a type of frog after the hurricane. The culminating event is a simulation in which students manipulate…

Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) with the 0.125 degree finite-volume General Circulation Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, B.-W.; Atlas, R.; Reale, O.; Lin, S.-J.; Chern, J.-D.; Chang, J.; Henze, C.

2006-01-01

Hurricane Katrina was the sixth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic. Katrina's forecast poses major challenges, the most important of which is its rapid intensification. Hurricane intensity forecast with General Circulation Models (GCMs) is difficult because of their coarse resolution. In this article, six 5-day simulations with the ultra-high resolution finite-volume GCM are conducted on the NASA Columbia supercomputer to show the effects of increased resolution on the intensity predictions of Katrina. It is found that the 0.125 degree runs give comparable tracks to the 0.25 degree, but provide better intensity forecasts, bringing the center pressure much closer to observations with differences of only plus or minus 12 hPa. In the runs initialized at 1200 UTC 25 AUG, the 0.125 degree simulates a more realistic intensification rate and better near-eye wind distributions. Moreover, the first global 0.125 degree simulation without convection parameterization (CP) produces even better intensity evolution and near-eye winds than the control run with CP.

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on Estimates of Hurricane Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Uhlhorn, Eric; Atlas, Robert; Black, Peter; Buckley, Courtney; Chen, Shuyi; El-Nimri, Salem; Hood, Robbie; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Miller, Timothy;

Effects of Asymmetric Secondary Eyewall on Tropical Cyclone Evolution in Hurricane Ike (2008)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Guosheng; Perrie, William

2018-02-01

The secondary eyewall plays an important role in tropical cyclone evolution and intensification and is routinely assumed to be axisymmetric. A unique opportunity to investigate the characteristics of the secondary eyewall in two dimensions is provided by the high spatial resolution (about 1 km) sea surface winds that were observed by spaceborne synthetic aperture radar over Hurricane Ike (2008). Here we extract the asymmetric characteristics using our Symmetric Hurricane Estimates for Winds model and analyze the related hurricane evolution by comparisons with aircraft measurements. Compared to the classic eyewall replacement cycle theory, our investigation finds that the primary eyewall did not weaken and the secondary eyewall did not shrink over a period of more than 30 hr. We suggest that the reason for this persistence is that a boundary layer inflow pathway is provided by the relatively low winds in the asymmetric secondary eyewall area, as observed by synthetic aperture radar.

Simulating the formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003) with AIRS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Liguang; Braun, Scott A.; Qu, John J.; Hao, Xianjun

2006-02-01

Using the AIRS retrieved temperature and humidity profiles, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) influence on the formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003) is simulated numerically with the MM5 model. The warmth and dryness of the SAL (the thermodynamic effect) is assimilated by use of the nudging technique, which enables the model thermodynamic state to be relaxed to the profiles of the AIRS retrieved data for the regions without cloud contamination. By incorporating the AIRS data, MM5 better simulates the large-scale flow patterns and the timing and location of the formation of Hurricane Isabel and its subsequent track. By comparing with an experiment without nudging of the AIRS data, it is shown that the SAL may have delayed the formation of Hurricane Isabel and inhibited the development of another tropical disturbance to the east. This case study confirms the argument by Dunion and Velden (2004) that the SAL can suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone activity by increasing the vertical wind shear, reducing the mean relative humidity, and stabilizing the environment at lower levels.

Divergent responses of leaf herbivory to simulated hurricane effects in a rainforest understory

Treesearch

Chelse Prather

2014-01-01

Hurricanes are major disturbances in many forests, but studies showing effects of natural hurricanes on herbivory rates have yielded mixed results. Forest managers could benefit from a better understanding of the effects of disturbances on herbivory to manage for particular recovery or restoration goals after anthropogenic or natural disturbances, such as logging and...

Curve Boxplot: Generalization of Boxplot for Ensembles of Curves.

PubMed

Mirzargar, Mahsa; Whitaker, Ross T; Kirby, Robert M

2014-12-01

In simulation science, computational scientists often study the behavior of their simulations by repeated solutions with variations in parameters and/or boundary values or initial conditions. Through such simulation ensembles, one can try to understand or quantify the variability or uncertainty in a solution as a function of the various inputs or model assumptions. In response to a growing interest in simulation ensembles, the visualization community has developed a suite of methods for allowing users to observe and understand the properties of these ensembles in an efficient and effective manner. An important aspect of visualizing simulations is the analysis of derived features, often represented as points, surfaces, or curves. In this paper, we present a novel, nonparametric method for summarizing ensembles of 2D and 3D curves. We propose an extension of a method from descriptive statistics, data depth, to curves. We also demonstrate a set of rendering and visualization strategies for showing rank statistics of an ensemble of curves, which is a generalization of traditional whisker plots or boxplots to multidimensional curves. Results are presented for applications in neuroimaging, hurricane forecasting and fluid dynamics.

Plant responses to simulated hurricane impacts in a subtropical wet forest, Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Aaron B. Shiels; Jess K. Zimmerman; Diana C. García-Montiel; Inge Jonckheere; Jennifer Holm; David Horton; Nicholas Brokaw

2010-01-01

1. We simulated two key components of severe hurricane disturbance, canopy openness and detritus deposition, to determine the independent and interactive effects of these components on woody plant recruitment and forest structure. 2. We increased canopy openness by trimming branches and added or subtracted canopy detritus in a factorial design. Plant responses were...

Hurricane Intensity Forecasts with a Global Mesoscale Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Bo-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Atlas, Robert

2006-01-01

It is known that General Circulation Models (GCMs) have insufficient resolution to accurately simulate hurricane near-eye structure and intensity. The increasing capabilities of high-end computers (e.g., the NASA Columbia Supercomputer) have changed this. In 2004, the finite-volume General Circulation Model at a 1/4 degree resolution, doubling the resolution used by most of operational NWP center at that time, was implemented and run to obtain promising landfall predictions for major hurricanes (e.g., Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne). In 2005, we have successfully implemented the 1/8 degree version, and demonstrated its performance on intensity forecasts with hurricane Katrina (2005). It is found that the 1/8 degree model is capable of simulating the radius of maximum wind and near-eye wind structure, and thereby promising intensity forecasts. In this study, we will further evaluate the model s performance on intensity forecasts of hurricanes Ivan, Jeanne, Karl in 2004. Suggestions for further model development will be made in the end.

Possible influence of dust on hurricane genesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bretl, Sebastian; Reutter, Philipp; Raible, Christoph C.; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Lohmann, Ulrike

2014-05-01

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) belong to the most extreme events in nature. In the past decade, the possible impact of dust on Atlantic hurricanes receives growing interest. As mineral dust is able to absorb incoming solar radiation and therefore warm the surrounding air, the presence of dust can lead to a reduction of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase in atmospheric stability. Furthermore, resulting baroclinic effects and the dry Saharan easterly jet lead to an enhanced vertical shear of the horizontal winds. SST, stability, moisture and vertical wind shear are known to potentially impact hurricane activity. But how Saharan dust influences these prerequisites for hurricane formation is not yet clear. Some dynamical mechanisms induced by the SAL might even strengthen hurricanes. An adequate framework for investigating the possible impact of dust on hurricanes is comparing high resolution simulations (~0.5°x0.5°, 31 vertical levels) with and without radiatively active dust aerosols. To accomplish this task, we are using the general circulation model ECHAM6 coupled to a modified version of the aerosol model HAM, ECHAM6-HAM-Dust. Instead of the five aerosol species HAM normally contains, the modified version takes only insoluble dust into account, but modifies the scavenging parameters in order to have a similar lifetime of dust as in the full ECHAM6-HAM. All remaining aerosols are prescribed. To evaluate the effects of dust on hurricanes, a TC detection and tracking method is applied on the results. ECHAM6-HAM-Dust was used in two configurations, one with radiatively active dust aerosols and one with dust being not radiatively active. For both set-ups, 10 Monte-Carlo simulations of the year 2005 were performed. A statistical method which identifies controlling parameters of hurricane genesis was applied on North Atlantic developing and non-developing disturbances in all simulations, comparing storms in the two sets of simulations. Hereby, dust can be assigned a more influencing role on TC genesis in the simulations with active dust. Despite dust is seeming to have a negative influence on TC genesis, the relative importance of dust compared to the sea surface temperature (SST) cannot be determined thoroughly. This is largely due to a similar pattern of SST and dust off the west coast of Africa, so that possible effects of dust and SST could hardly be separated.

Sensitivity of storm wave modeling to wind stress evaluation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yingjian; Yu, Xiping

2017-06-01

The application of the wave boundary layer model (WBLM) for wind stress evaluation to storm wave modeling is studied using Hurricane Katrina (2005) as an example, which is chosen due to its great intensity and good availability of field data. The WBLM is based on the momentum and energy conservation equations and takes into account the physical details of air-sea interaction processes as well as energy dissipation due to the presence of sea spray. Four widely-used bulk-type formulas are also used for comparison. Simulated significant wave heights with WBLM are shown to agree well with the observed data over deep water. The WBLM yields a smaller wind stress coefficient on the left hand side of the hurricane track, which is reasonable considering the effect of the sea state on momentum transfer. Quantitative results show that large differences of the significant wave height are observed in the hurricane core among five wind stress evaluation methods and the differences are up to 12 m, which is in agreement with the general knowlege that the ocean dynamic processes under storm conditions are very sensitive to the amount of momentum exchange at the air-sea interface. However, it is the depth-induced energy dissipation, rather than the wind energy input, that dominates the wave height in the shallow water region. A larger value of depth-induced breaking parameter in the wave model results in better agreement with the measurements over shallow water.

Ocean Model Impact Study for Coupled Hurricane Forecasting: An HFIP Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H. S. S.; Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Tallapragada, V.; Black, P. G.; Bond, N.; Chen, S.; Cione, J.; Cronin, M. F.; Ginis, I.; Liu, B.; Miller, L.; Jayne, S. R.; Sanabia, E.; Shay, L. K.; Uhlhorn, E.; Zhu, L.

2016-02-01

Established in 2009, the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) is a ten-year project to promote accelerated improvements hurricane track and intensity forecasts (Gall et al. 2013). The Ocean Model Impact Tiger Team (OMITT) consisting of model developers and research scientists was formed as one of HFIP working groups in December 2014, to evaluate the impact of ocean coupling in tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts. The team investigated the ocean model impact in real cases for Category 3 Hurricane Edouard in 2014, using simulations and observations that were collected for different stages of the hurricane. Two Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes in 2015, Blanca and Dolores, are also of special interest. These two powerful Category 4 storms followed a similar track, however, they produced dramatically different ocean cooling, about 7.2oC for Hurricane Blanca but only about 2.7oC for Hurricane Dolores, and the corresponding intensity changes were negative 40 ms-1 and 20 ms-1, respectively. Two versions of operational HWRF and COAMPS-TC coupled prediction systems are employed in the study. These systems are configured to have 1D and 3D ocean dynamics coupled to the atmosphere. The ocean components are initialized separately with climatology, analysis and nowcast products to evaluate the impact of ocean initialization on hurricane forecasts. Real storm forecast experiments are being designed and performed with different levels of the ocean model complexity and various model configurations to study model sensitivity. In this talk, we report the OMITT activities conducted during the past year, present preliminary results of on-going investigation of air-sea interactions in the simulations, and discuss future plans toward improving coupled TC predictions. Gall, R., J. Franklin, F. Marks, E.N. Rappaport, and F. Toepfer, 2013: THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 329-343.

Flooding Simulation of Extreme Event on Barnegat Bay by High-Resolution Two Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Ramaswamy, V.; Saleh, F.

2017-12-01

Barnegat Bay located on the east coast of New Jersey, United States and is separated from the Atlantic Ocean by the narrow Barnegat Peninsula which acts as a barrier island. The bay is fed by several rivers which empty through small estuaries along the inner shore. In terms of vulnerability from flooding, the Barnegat Peninsula is under the influence of both coastal storm surge and riverine flooding. Barnegat Bay was hit by Hurricane Sandy causing flood damages with extensive cross-island flow at many streets perpendicular to the shoreline. The objective of this work is to identify and quantify the sources of flooding using a two dimensional inland hydrodynamic model. The hydrodynamic model was forced by three observed coastal boundary conditions, and one hydrologic boundary condition from United States Geological Survey (USGS). The model reliability was evaluated with both FEMA spatial flooding extend and USGS High water marks. Simulated flooding extent showed good agreement with the reanalysis spatial inundation extents. Results offered important perspectives on the flow of the water into the bay, the velocity and the depth of the inundated areas. Using such information can enable emergency managers and decision makers identify evacuation and deploy flood defenses.

On the Use of Coupled Wind, Wave, and Current Fields in the Simulation of Loads on Bottom-Supported Offshore Wind Turbines during Hurricanes: March 2012 - September 2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Eungsoo; Manuel, Lance; Curcic, Milan

In the United States, potential offshore wind plant sites have been identified along the Atlantic seaboard and in the Gulf of Mexico. It is imperative that we define external conditions associated with hurricanes and severe winter storms and consider load cases for which wind turbines may need to be designed. We selected two hurricanes, Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012), and investigated the effect these tropical storms would have on bottom-supported offshore wind turbines that were hypothetically in or close to their path as they made landfall. For realistic turbine loads assessment, it is important that the coupled influences of themore » changing wind, wave, and current fields are simulated throughout the evolution of the hurricanes. We employed a coupled model--specifically, the University of Miami Coupled Model (UMCM)--that integrates atmospheric, wave, and ocean components to produce needed wind, wave, and current data. The wind data are used to generate appropriate vertical wind profiles and full wind velocity fields including turbulence; the current field over the water column is obtained by interpolated discrete output current data; and short-crested irregular second-order waves are simulated using output directional wave spectra from the coupled model. We studied two monopile-supported offshore wind turbines sited in 20 meters of water in the Gulf of Mexico to estimate loads during Hurricane Ike, and a jacket space-frame platform-supported offshore wind turbine sited in 50 meters of water in the mid-Atlantic region to estimate loads during Hurricane Sandy. In this report we discuss in detail how the simulated hurricane wind, wave, and current output data are used in turbine loads studies. In addition, important characteristics of the external conditions are studied, including the relative importance of swell versus wind seas, aerodynamic versus hydrodynamic forces, current velocity effects, yaw control options for the turbine, hydrodynamic drag versus inertia forces, and soil-structure interaction effects. A detailed framework is presented that explains how coupled inputs can be included in turbine loads studies during a hurricane. This framework can aid in future efforts aimed at developing offshore wind turbine design criteria and load cases related to hurricanes.« less

Further Studies of Observational Undersampling of the Surface Wind and Pressure Fields in the Hurricane Inner-Core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolan, D. S.; Klotz, B.

2016-12-01

Obtaining the best estimate of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is vital for operational forecasting centers to produce accurate forecasts and to issue appropriate warnings. Aircraft data traditionally provide the most reliable information about the TC inner core and surrounding environment, but sampling strategies and observing platforms associated with reconnaissance aircraft have inherent deficiencies that contribute to the uncertainty of the intensity estimate. One such instrument, the stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) on the NOAA WP-3D aircraft, provides surface wind speeds along the aircraft flight track. However, the standard "figure-4" flight pattern substantially limits the azimuthal coverage of the eyewall, such that the chance of observing the true peak wind speeds is actually quite small. By simulating flights through a high-resolution simulation of Hurricane Isabel (2003), a previous study found that the 1-minute mean (maximum) SFMR winds underestimate a 6-hour running mean maximum wind (i.e. best track) by 7.5-10%. This project applies the same methodology to a suite of hurricane simulations with even higher resolution and more sophisticated physical parameterizations. These include the hurricane nature run of Nolan et al. (2013), the second hurricane nature run, a simulation of Hurricane Bill (2009), and additional idealized simulations. For the nature run cases, we find that the mean underestimate of the best-track estimate is 12-15%, considerably higher than determined from the Isabel simulation, while the other cases are similar to the previous result. Comparisons of the various cases indicates that the primary factors that lead to greater undersampling rates are storm size and storm asymmetry. Minimum surface pressure is also frequently estimated from pressures reported by dropsondes released into the eye, with a standard correction of 1 hPa per 10 knots of wind at the time of "splash." Statistics from thousands of simulated splash points show that this rule is quite good for large wind speeds, but for low wind speeds there is still a positive bias to the pressure estimate, because the chance of hitting the true pressure minimum is quite small.

Experimental modeling of the effect of hurricane wind forces on driving behavior and vehicle performance.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Jose M; Codjoe, Julius; Osman, Osama; Ishak, Sherif; Wolshon, Brian

2015-01-01

While traffic planning is important for developing a hurricane evacuation plan, vehicle performance on the roads during extreme weather conditions is critical to the success of the planning process. This novel study investigates the effect of gusty hurricane wind forces on the driving behavior and vehicle performance. The study explores how the parameters of a driving simulator could be modified to reproduce wind loadings experienced by three vehicle types (passenger car, ambulance, and bus) during gusty hurricane winds, through manipulation of appropriate software. Thirty participants were then tested on the modified driving simulator under five wind conditions (ranging from normal to hurricane category 4). The driving performance measures used were heading error and lateral displacement. The results showed that higher wind forces resulted in more varied and greater heading error and lateral displacement. The ambulance had the greatest heading errors and lateral displacements, which were attributed to its large lateral surface area and light weight. Two mathematical models were developed to estimate the heading error and lateral displacements for each of the vehicle types for a given change in lateral wind force. Through a questionnaire, participants felt the different characteristics while driving each vehicle type. The findings of this study demonstrate the valuable use of a driving simulator to model the behavior of different vehicle types and to develop mathematical models to estimate and quantify driving behavior and vehicle performance under hurricane wind conditions.

Aircraft Monitoring of Sea-Spray and Changes in Hurricane Intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, J. R.

2010-12-01

Sea spray above the ocean surface in hurricanes enhances the transfer of sensible heat to the atmospheric boundary layer. Sea spray becomes of greater significance as the intensity and thereby the wind speed of the hurricane increases. A fuller knowledge of the distribution of sea spray over the ocean may help in understanding changes in intensity of the most dangerous hurricanes. An instrument to measure the salt content of rain has been developed and installed on one of NOAA’s P3 hurricane research aircraft. The instrument detects changes in the conductivity of a thin film of water on the surface of the instrument. Calibration of the instrument has been completed at the University of Texas A&M wind tunnel facility. An earlier version of the sensor was flown into Hurricane Paloma (2008) at an elevation of 4 km. Changes in salt concentration were detected. A sturdier version of the instrument was flown into winter storms off the coast of Newfoundland in February of 2010. For the most part, the instrument did not function because the precipitation was a solid. But the one time the on-board meteorologist noted there was liquid precipitation, the instrument did function. Rain samples collected at ground level from eleven land falling hurricanes ranged from 5 ppm to 50 ppm (Lawrence et al, 2006 Fall AGU abstract, session A33). Hurricane Katrina showed the highest concentration of salt at 50 ppm. Sea salt measurements in rain from Hurricane Earl were underway starting on August 28 with continued plans through September 3. Salinity measurements by the instrument will be compared to wind velocities measured by the on-board radar. Because sea spray increases heat-transfer from the ocean to the hurricane atmosphere, especially in category 3 to 5 hurricanes, these studies may help improve models that predict changes in hurricane intensity.

The Coastal Dynamics of Heterogeneous Sedimentary Environments: Numerical Modeling of Nearshore Hydrodynamics and Sediment Transport

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-10

supplied boundary data for Hurricane Katrina (Keen, Furukawa et al. 2006; Keen, Slingerland et al. 2010). The numerical models discussed in this report...explicitly. NCOM can be nested to a coarse-grid model to supply boundary conditions at the open boundary of the domain. NCOM has been validated at global...circulation study of Mississippi Sound (Keen 2002), which supplied steady currents for the nearshore erosion problem discussed in this report

Hurricane Harvey Riverine Flooding: Part 1 - Reconstruction of Hurricane Harvey Flooding for Harris County, TX using a GPU-accelerated 2D flood model for post-flood hazard analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalyanapu, A. J.; Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey that made landfall in the southern Texas this August is one of the most destructive hurricanes during the 2017 hurricane season. During its active period, many areas in coastal Texas region received more than 40 inches of rain. This downpour caused significant flooding resulting in about 77 casualties, displacing more than 30,000 people, inundating hundreds of thousands homes and is currently estimated to have caused more than $70 billion in direct damage. One of the significantly affected areas is Harris County where the city of Houston, TX is located. Covering over two HUC-8 drainage basins ( 2702 mi2), this county experienced more than 80% of its annual average rainfall during this event. This study presents an effort to reconstruct flooding caused by extreme rainfall due to Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. This computationally intensive task was performed at a 30-m spatial resolution using a rapid flood model called Flood2D-GPU, a graphics processing unit (GPU) accelerated model, on Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) Titan Supercomputer. For this task, the hourly rainfall estimates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Stage IV Quantitative Precipitation Estimate were fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and Routing Application for Parallel computation of Discharge (RAPID) routing model to estimate flow hydrographs at 69 locations for Flood2D-GPU simulation. Preliminary results of the simulation including flood inundation extents, maps of flood depths and inundation duration will be presented. Future efforts will focus on calibrating and validating the simulation results and assessing the flood damage for better understanding the impacts made by Hurricane Harvey.

Effect of hurricane paths on storm surge response at Tianjin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xingru; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou

2012-06-01

A hurricane induced storm surge simulation system was developed for Tianjin coast, which consists of a hurricane model and a storm surge model. The peak storm surge result of the simulation agreed well with that of the observation. Three observed paths (Rita, Mimie and WINNIE) and a hypothetical path (Rita2) were chosen as the selective hurricane paths according to their positions relative to Tianjin. The sensitivity of Tianjin storm surge to the four paths was investigated using the validated storm surge simulation system. Three groups of experiments were done. In group one, the models were forced by the wind field and air pressure; in group two and three the models were forced by the wind only and the air pressure only respectively. In the experiments, the hurricane moved with a fixed speed and an intensity of 50 year return period. The simulation results show that path of the type Rita2 is the easiest to cause storm surge disaster in Tianjin, and the effect of air pressure forcing is most evident for path of the type Rita in Tianjin storm surge process. The above conclusions were analyzed through the evolution of the wind fields and the air pressure distributions. Comparing the experiment results of Group one, two and three, it can be seen that the storm surge is mainly induced by the wind forcing and the nonlinear interaction between the effect of wind forcing and air pressure forcing on the storm surge tends to weaken the storm surge.

Cyclone-cyclone Interactions through the Ocean Pathway

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Taraphdar, Sourav; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

The intense SST (Sea Surface Temperature) cooling caused by hurricane-induced mixing is restored at timescales on the order of weeks(1) and thus may persist long enough to influence a later hurricane passing over it. Though many studies have evaluated the effects of SST cool-ing induced by a hurricane on its own intensification(2, 3), none has looked at its effect on later storms. Using an analysis of observations and numerical model simulations, we demonstrate that hurricanes may influence the intensity of later hurricanes that pass over their linger-ing wakes. On average, when hurricanes encounter cold wakes, they experience SSTs that aremore » ~0.4oC lower than when they do not encounter wakes and consequently decay(intensify) at a rate that is nearly three times faster(slower). In the region of warm SSTs (* 26.5oC) where the most intense and damaging hurricanes tend to occur, the percentage of hurricanes that encounter lingering cold wakes increases with hurricane frequency and was found to be as high as 40%. Furthermore, we estimate that the cumulative power dissipated(4) by the most energetic hurricanes has been reduced by as much as ~7% in a season through this effect. As the debate on changes in Atlantic hurricane activity associated with global warming(5) continues, the negative feedback between hurricane frequency and intensity resulting from hurricane-hurricane interactions through the ocean pathway deserves attention.« less

On the coupling of convective updrafts prior to secondary eyewall formation in Hurricane Katrina (2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Rivera, Jose M.; Lin, Yuh-Lang

2017-09-01

Hurricane Katrina (2005) was simulated by the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model to understand the mechanism of a secondary eyewall formation (SEF) prior to its last landfall. The storm underwent a series of structural changes that were deemed necessary for the concentric cycle to begin, which included (1) increased rainband activity outside the primary eyewall in the hours before, mostly related to an intensifying main feeder band, (2) close to initiation of the SEF, an updraft (explained by a pre-existing hypothesis) emerged outside the primary eyewall near the top of the boundary layer (BL), (3) this updraft then intensified and extended both upward and outward, while the storm intensified and approached SEF, (4) eventually, the updraft coupled with the upward motion associated with rainband-related convection near the SEF radius, and (5) once the alignment occurred, the deep updraft quickly organized to support deep convection that led to SEF within hours of initiation. The coupling of updrafts emanating from the BL with the environmental upward motion associated with the pre-existing rainband activity is proposed to be the key mechanism for the SEF initiation in this case.

Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer Rolls in Synthetic Aperture Radar Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Lanqing; Li, Xiaofeng; Liu, Bin; Zhang, Jun A.; Shen, Dongliang; Zhang, Zenghui; Yu, Wenxian

2018-04-01

Marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) roll plays an important role in the turbulent exchange of momentum, sensible heat, and moisture throughout MABL of tropical cyclone (TC). Hence, rolls are believed to be closely related to TC's development, intensification, and decay processes. Spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) provides a unique capability to image the sea surface imprints of quasi-linear streaks induced by the MABL rolls within a TC. In this study, sixteen SAR images, including three images acquired during three major hurricanes: Irma, Jose, and Maria in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, were utilized to systematically map the distribution and wavelength of MABL rolls under the wide range of TC intensities. The images were acquired by SAR onboard RADARSAT-1/2, ENVISAT, and SENTINEL-1 satellites. Our findings are in agreement with the previous one case study of Hurricane Katrina (2005), showing the roll wavelengths are between 600 and 1,600 m. We also find that there exist roll imprints in eyewall and rainbands, although the boundary layer heights are shallower there. Besides, the spatial distribution of roll wavelengths is asymmetrical. The roll wavelengths are found to be the shortest around the storm center, increase and then decrease with distance from storm center, reaching the peak values in the range of d∗-2d∗, where d∗ is defined as the physical location to TC centers normalized by the radius of maximum wind. These MABL roll characteristics cannot be derived using conventional aircraft and land-based Doppler radar observations.

A Cloud-Resolving Simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991): Storm Structure and Eyewall Buoyancy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A numerical simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991) is conducted using the Penn State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 with a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 Km on the finest nested mesh The model produces a realistic hurricane that intensifies slowly during the period of fine-scale simulation. Time-averaged results reveal the effects of storm motion. vertical shear, beta gyres and deformation forcing on the structure of radial inflow, vertical motion, and precipitation. Instantaneous model fields show that radial inflow in the eyewall is very intense near the surface but transitions to strong low-level outflow near the top of the boundary layer. The low-level structure is modulated by a wavenumber 2 disturbance that rotates around the eyewall at half the speed of the maximum tangential winds and is consistent with a vortex Rossby edge wave. The statistical distribution of vertical velocity in the eyewall indicates that the eyewall is composed of a small number of intense updrafts that account for the majority of the upward mass flux rather than a more gradual and symmetric eyewall circulation, consistent with the concept of hot towers. Tongues of high equivalent potential temperature, Theta(sub e), are seen along the inner edge of the eyewall updraft and within the low-level outflow. This air originates from outside of the eyewall with the highest theta(sub e) air coming from the layer closest to the surface after penetrating closest to the center. Occasionally, high Theta(sub e), air within the eye is drawn into the eyewall updrafts. The high Theta(sub e), air rising within the eyewall is shown to be associated with positive eyewall buoyancy with sufficient convective available potential energy along its path to produce relatively strong convective updrafts. Although the requirements for conditional symmetric instability are met within the eyewall and the air parcel trajectories follow slanted paths, the radial displacement of air parcels in the low-level outflow moves the air parcel sufficiently far away from the upper- warm core that the air becomes unstable to vertical displacements. Hence, convective instability rather than symmetric instability accounts for the stronger updrafts in the eyewall.

Understory fern community structure, growth and spore production responses to a large-scale hurricane experiment in a Puerto Rico rainforest

Treesearch

Joanne M. Sharpe; Aaron B. Shiels

2014-01-01

Ferns are abundant in most rainforest understories yet their responses to hurricanes have not been well studied. Fern community structure, growth and spore production were monitored for two years before and five years after a large-scale experiment that simulated two key components of severe hurricane disturbance: canopy openness and debris deposition. The canopy was...

Numerical modeling of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and potential future hurricanes on spatial patterns of salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Hongqing; Chen, Qin; Hu, Kelin; Snedden, Gregg A.; Hartig, Ellen K.; Couvillion, Brady R.; Johnson, Cody L.; Orton, Philip M.

2017-03-29

The salt marshes of Jamaica Bay, managed by the New York City Department of Parks & Recreation and the Gateway National Recreation Area of the National Park Service, serve as a recreational outlet for New York City residents, mitigate flooding, and provide habitat for critical wildlife species. Hurricanes and extra-tropical storms have been recognized as one of the critical drivers of coastal wetland morphology due to their effects on hydrodynamics and sediment transport, deposition, and erosion processes. However, the magnitude and mechanisms of hurricane effects on sediment dynamics and associated coastal wetland morphology in the northeastern United States are poorly understood. In this study, the depth-averaged version of the Delft3D modeling suite, integrated with field measurements, was utilized to examine the effects of Hurricane Sandy and future potential hurricanes on salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City. Hurricane Sandy-induced wind, waves, storm surge, water circulation, sediment transport, deposition, and erosion were simulated by using the modeling system in which vegetation effects on flow resistance, surge reduction, wave attenuation, and sedimentation were also incorporated. Observed marsh elevation change and accretion from a rod surface elevation table and feldspar marker horizons and cesium-137- and lead-210-derived long-term accretion rates were used to calibrate and validate the wind-waves-surge-sediment transport-morphology coupled model.The model results (storm surge, waves, and marsh deposition and erosion) agreed well with field measurements. The validated modeling system was then used to detect salt marsh morphological change due to Hurricane Sandy across the entire Jamaica Bay over the short-term (for example, 4 days and 1 year) and long-term (for example, 5 and 10 years). Because Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Irene (2011) were two large and destructive tropical cyclones which hit the northeast coast, the validated coupled model was run to predict the effects of Sandy-like and Irene-like hurricanes with different storm tracks and wind intensities on wetland morphology in Jamaica Bay. Model results indicate that, in Jamaica Bay salt marshes, the morphological changes (greater than 5 millimeters [mm] determined by the long-term marsh accretion rate) caused by Hurricane Sandy were complex and spatially heterogeneous. Most of the erosion (5–40 mm) and deposition (5–30 mm) were mainly characterized by fine sand for channels and bay bottoms and by mud for marsh areas. Hurricane Sandy-generated deposition and erosion were generated locally. The storm-induced net sediment input through Rockaway Inlet was only about 1 percent of the total amount of the sediment reworked by the hurricane. Salt marshes inside the western part of the bay showed erosion overall while marshes inside the eastern part showed deposition from Hurricane Sandy. Model results indicated that most of the marshes could recover from Hurricane Sandy-induced erosion after 1 year and demonstrated continued marsh accretion after the hurricane over the course of long simulation periods although the effect (accretion) was diminished. Local waves and currents generated by Hurricane Sandy appeared to play a critical role in sediment transport and associated wetland morphological change in Jamaica Bay. Hypothetical hurricanes, depending on their track and intensity, cause variable responses in spatial patterns of sediment deposition and erosion compared to simulations without the hurricane. In general, hurricanes passing west of the Jamaica Bay estuary appear to be more destructive to the salt marshes than those passing the east. Consequently, marshes inside the western part of the bay were likely to be more vulnerable to hurricanes than marshes inside the eastern part of the bay. 

Modeling the impacts of climate variability and hurricane on carbon sequestration in a coastal forested wetland in South Carolina

Treesearch

Zhaohua Dai; Carl C. Trettin; Changsheng Li; Ge Sun; Devendra M. Amatya; Harbin Li

2013-01-01

The impacts of hurricane disturbance and climate variability on carbon dynamics in a coastal forested wetland in South Carolina of USA were simulated using the Forest-DNDC model with a spatially explicit approach. The model was validated using the measured biomass before and after Hurricane Hugo and the biomass inventories in 2006 and 2007, showed that the Forest-DNDC...

Linking soils and streams: Response of soil solution chemistry to simulated hurricane disturbance mirrors stream chemistry following a severe hurricane

Treesearch

William H. McDowell; Daniel Liptzin

2014-01-01

Understanding the drivers of forest ecosystem response to major disturbance events is an important topic in forest ecology and ecosystem management. Because of the multiple elements included in most major disturbances such as hurricanes, fires, or landslides, it is often difficult to ascribe a specific driver to the observed response. This is particularly true for the...

Hurricane frequency and landfall distribution for coastal wetlands of the Gulf coast, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, T.W.

2009-01-01

The regularity and severity of tropical storms are major determinants controlling ecosystem structure and succession for coastal ecosystems. Hurricane landfall rates vary greatly with high and low frequency for given coastal stretches of the southeastern United States. Site-specific meteorological data of hurricane wind speeds and direction, however, are only available for select populated cities of relatively sparse distribution and inland from the coast. A spatial simulation model of hurricane circulation, HURASIM, was applied to reconstruct chronologies of hurricane wind speeds and vectors for northern Gulf coast locations derived from historical tracking data of North Atlantic tropical storms dating back to 1851. Contrasts of storm frequencies showed that tropical storm incidence is nearly double for Florida coastal ecosystems than the westernmost stretches of Texas coastline. Finer-scale spatial simulations for the north-central Gulf coast exhibited sub-regional differences in storm strength and frequency with coastal position and latitude. The overall pattern of storm incidence in the Gulf basin indicates that the disturbance regime of coastal areas varies greatly along the coast, inland from the coast, and temporally over the period of record. Field and modeling studies of coastal ecosystems will benefit from this retrospective analysis of hurricane incidence and intensity both on a local or regional basis. ?? 2009 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Numerical study of sediment dynamics during hurricane Gustav

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zang, Zhengchen; Xue, Z. George; Bao, Shaowu; Chen, Qin; Walker, Nan D.; Haag, Alaric S.; Ge, Qian; Yao, Zhigang

2018-06-01

In this study, the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-and-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was employed to explore sediment dynamics in the northern Gulf of Mexico during hurricane Gustav in 2008. The performance of the model was evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively against in-situ and remote sensing measurements, respectively. After Gustav's landfall in coastal Louisiana, the maximum significant wave heights reached more than 8 m offshore and they decreased quickly as it moved toward the inner shelf, where the vertical stratification was largely destroyed. Alongshore currents were dominant westward on the eastern sector of the hurricane track, and offshoreward currents prevailed on the western sector. High suspended sediment concentrations (>1000 mg/l) were confined to the inner shelf at surface layers and the simulated high concentrations at the bottom layer extended to the 200 m isobaths. The stratification was restored one week after landfall, although not fully. The asymmetric hurricane winds induced stronger hydrodynamics in the eastern sector, which led to severe erosion. The calculated suspended sediment flux (SSF) was convergent to the hurricane center and the maximum SSF was simulated near the south and southeast of the Mississippi river delta. The averaged post-hurricane deposition over the Louisiana shelf was 4.0 cm, which was 3.2-26 times higher than the annual accumulation rate under normal weather conditions.

Estimating hypothetical present-day insured losses for past intense hurricanes in the French Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, James; Desarthe, Jérémy; Naulin, Jean-Philippe; Garnier, Emmanuel; Liu, Ye; Moncoulon, David

2015-04-01

On the islands of the French Antilles, the period for which systematic meteorological measurements and historic event loss data are available is short relative to the recurrence intervals of very intense, damaging hurricanes. Additionally, the value of property at risk changes through time. As such, the recent past can only provide limited insight into potential losses from extreme storms in coming years. Here we present some research that seeks to overcome, as far as is possible, the limitations of record length in assessing the possible impacts of near-future hurricanes on insured properties. First, using the archives of the French overseas departments (which included administrative and weather reports, inventories of damage to houses, crops and trees, as well as some meteorological observations after 1950) we reconstructed the spatial patterns of hazard intensity associated with three historical events. They are: i) the 1928 Hurricane (Guadeloupe), ii) Hurricane Betsy (1956, Guadeloupe) and iii) Hurricane David (1979, Martinique). These events were selected because all were damaging, and the information available on each is rich. Then, using a recently developed catastrophe model for hurricanes affecting Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin, we simulated the hypothetical losses to insured properties that the reconstructed events might cause if they were to reoccur today. The model simulated damage due to wind, rainfall-induced flooding and storm surge flooding. These 'what if' scenarios provided an initial indication of the potential present-day exposure of the insurance industry to intense hurricanes. However, we acknowledge that historical events are unlikely to repeat exactly. We therefore extended the study by producing a stochastic event catalogue containing a large number of synthetic but plausible hurricane events. Instrumental data were used as a basis for event generation, but importantly the statistical methods we applied permit the extrapolation of simulated events beyond the observed intensity ranges. The event catalogue enabled the model to be run in a probabilistic mode; the losses for each synthetic event in a 10,000-year period were simulated. In this way, the aleatory uncertainty associated with future hazard outcomes was addressed. In conclusion, we consider how the reconstructed event hazard intensities and losses compare with the distribution of 32,320 events in the stochastic event set. Further comparisons are made with a longer chronology of tropical cyclones in the Antilles (going back to the 17th Century) prepared solely from documentary sources. Overall, the novelty of this work lies in the integration of data sources that are frequently overlooked in catastrophe model development and evaluation.

Responses to canopy loss and debris deposition in a tropical forest ecosystem: Synthesis from an experimental manipulation simulating effects of hurricane disturbance

Treesearch

A.B. Shiels; Grizelle Gonzalez; M.R. Willig

2014-01-01

Hurricanes, cyclones, or typhoons are intense and broad-scale disturbances that affect many island and coastal ecosystems throughout the world. We summarize the findings of the articles that compose this special issue of Forest Ecology and Management, which focuses on a manipulative experiment (the Canopy Trimming Experiment, CTE) that simulates two key aspects of...

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft and Satellite-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, TImothy L.; Atlas, R. M.; Black, P. G.; Case, J. L.; Chen, S. S.; Hood, R. E.; Johnson, J. W.; Jones, L.; Ruf, C. S.; Uhlborn, E. W.

2008-01-01

Accurate observations of surface ocean vector winds (OVW) with high spatial and temporal resolution are required for understanding and predicting tropical cyclones. As NASA's QuikSCAT and Navy's WindSat operate beyond their design life, many members of the weather and climate science communities recognize the importance of developing new observational technologies and strategies to meet the essential need for OVW information to improve hurricane intensity and location forecasts. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative technology development which offers new and unique remotely sensed satellite observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is the only proven remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone (TC) ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology. This sensor will operate over 4-7 GHz (C-band frequencies) where the required TC remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometers. The instrument is described in more detail in a paper by Jones et al. presented to the Tropical Meteorology Special Symposium at this AMS Annual Meeting. Simulated HIRAD passes through a simulation of hurricane Frances are being developed to demonstrate HIRAD estimation of surface wind speed over a wide swath in the presence of heavy rain. These are currently being used in "quick" OSSEs (Observing System Simulation Experiments) with H'Wind analyses as the discriminating tool. The H'Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic , Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa._ov/hrd/data sub/wind.html. Observations have been simulated from both aircraft altitudes and space. The simulated flight patterns for the aircraft platform cases have been designed to duplicate the timing and flight patterns used in routine NOAA and USAF hurricane surveillance flights, and the spaceborne case simulates a TRMM orbit and altitude.

A High-Resolution WRF Tropical Channel Simulation Driven by a Global Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, G.; Leung, L.; Kuo, Y.; Hurrell, J.

2006-12-01

Since 2003, NCAR has invested in the development and application of Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Climate System Model, as a key component of the Prediction Across Scales Initiative. A prototype tropical channel model has been developed to investigate scale interactions and the influence of tropical convection on large scale circulation and tropical modes. The model was developed based on the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), configured as a tropical channel between 30 ° S and 45 ° N, wide enough to allow teleconnection effects over the mid-latitudes. Compared to the limited area domain that WRF is typically applied over, the channel mode alleviates issues with reflection of tropical modes that could result from imposing east/west boundaries. Using a large amount of available computing resources on a supercomputer (Blue Vista) during its bedding in period, a simulation has been completed with the tropical channel applied at 36 km horizontal resolution for 5 years from 1996 to 2000, with large scale circulation provided by the NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis at the north/south boundaries. Shorter simulations of 2 years and 6 months have also been performed to include two-way nests at 12 km and 4 km resolution, respectively, over the western Pacific warm pool, to explicitly resolve tropical convection in the Maritime Continent. The simulations realistically captured the large-scale circulation including the trade winds over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, the Australian and Asian monsoon circulation, and hurricane statistics. Preliminary analysis and evaluation of the simulations will be presented.

Developing Local Scale, High Resolution, Data to Interface with Numerical Hurricane Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witkop, R.; Becker, A.

2017-12-01

In 2017, the University of Rhode Island's (URI's) Graduate School of Oceanography (GSO) developed hurricane models that specify wind speed, inundation, and erosion around Rhode Island with enough precision to incorporate impacts on individual facilities. At the same time, URI's Marine Affairs Visualization Lab (MAVL) developed a way to realistically visualize these impacts in 3-D. Since climate change visualizations and water resource simulations have been shown to promote resiliency action (Sheppard, 2015) and increase credibility (White et al., 2010) when local knowledge is incorporated, URI's hurricane models and visualizations may also more effectively enable hurricane resilience actions if they include Facility Manager (FM) and Emergency Manager (EM) perceived hurricane impacts. This study determines how FM's and EM's perceive their assets as being vulnerable to quantifiable hurricane-related forces at the individual facility scale while exploring methods to elicit this information from FMs and EMs in a format usable for incorporation into URI GSO's hurricane models.

Laboratory performance of highway bridge girder anchorages under simulated hurricane-induced wave loading.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-07-01

Many bridges along the Gulf Coast of the United States were damaged by recent hurricanes, and many more are susceptible to : similar damage. This research examines the structural performance of common connection details used to anchor prestressed : c...

A Lagrangian trajectory view on transport and mixing processes between the eye, eyewall, and environment using a high resolution simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cram, Thomas A.; Persing, John; Montgomery, Michael T.; Braun, Scott A.

2006-01-01

The transport and mixing characteristics of a large sample of air parcels within a mature and vertically sheared hurricane vortex is examined. Data from a high-resolution (2 km grid spacing) numerical simulation of "real-case" Hurricane Bonnie (1998) is used to calculate Lagrangian trajectories of air parcels in various subdomains of the hurricane (namely, the eye, eyewall, and near-environment) to study the degree of interaction (transport and mixing) between these subdomains. It is found that 1) there is transport and mixing from the low-level eye to the eyewall that carries high- Be air which can enhance the efficiency of the hurricane heat engine; 2) a portion of the low-level inflow of the hurricane bypasses the eyewall to enter the eye, that both replaces the mass of the low-level eye and lingers for a sufficient time (order 1 hour) to acquire enhanced entropy characteristics through interaction with the ocean beneath the eye; 3) air in the mid- to upper-level eye is exchanged with the eyewall such that more than half the air of the eye is exchanged in five hours in this case of a sheared hurricane; and 4) that one-fifth of the mass in the eyewall at a height of 5 km has an origin in the mid- to upper-level environment where thet(sub e) is much less than in the eyewall, which ventilates the ensemble average eyewall theta(sub e) by about 1 K. Implications of these findings to the problem of hurricane intensity forecasting are discussed.

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses and Numerical Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Timothy; Atlas, Robert; Black, Peter; Buckley, Courtney; Chen, Shuyi; Hood, robbie; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Chris; Uhlhorn, Eric;

Simulation of the Impact of New Air-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Timothy; Atlas, Robert; Black, Peter; Case, Jonathan; Chen, Shuyi; Hood, Robbie; Jones, Linwood; Ruff, Chris; Uhlhorn, Eric

2008-01-01

The H'Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data sub/wind.html. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRad) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRad is being designed to enhance the real-time airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft using the operational airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRad will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approx. 3 x the aircraft altitude). The instrument is described in a paper presented to the Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Symposium. The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a numerical model from the University of Miami and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses. Evaluations will be presented on the impact of the HIRad instrument on H'Wind analyses, both in terms of adding it to the full suite of current measurements, as well as using it to replace instrument(s) that may not be functioning at the future tame the HIRad instrument is implemented.

On the secondary eyewall formation of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

PubMed Central

Abarca, Sergio F.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Braun, Scott A.; Dunion, Jason

2018-01-01

A first observationally-based estimation of departures from gradient wind balance during secondary eyewall formation is presented. The study is based on the Atlantic Hurricane Edouard (2014). This storm was observed during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) experiment, a field campaign conducted in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A total of 135 dropsondes are analyzed in two separate time periods: one named the secondary eyewall formation period and the other one referred to as the decaying-double eyewalled storm period. During the secondary eyewall formation period, a time when the storm was observed to have only one eyewall, the diagnosed agradient force has a secondary maxima that coincides with the radial location of the secondary eyewall observed in the second period of study. The maximum spin up tendency of the radial influx of absolute vertical vorticity is within the boundary layer in the region of the eyewall of the storm and the spin up tendency structure elongates radially outward into the secondary region of supergradient wind, where the secondary wind maxima is observed in the second period of study. An analysis of the boundary-layer averaged vertical structure of equivalent potential temperature reveals a conditionally unstable environment in the secondary eyewall formation region. These findings support the hypothesis that deep convective activity in this region contributed to spin up of the boundary layer tangential winds and the formation of a secondary eyewall that is observed during the decaying-double eyewalled storm period. PMID:29651170

On the Secondary Eyewall Formation of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abarca, Sergio F.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Braun, Scott A.; Dunion, Jason

2016-01-01

A first observationally-based estimation of departures from gradient wind balance during secondary eyewall formation is presented. The study is based on the Atlantic Hurricane Edouard (2014). This storm was observed during the National Aeronautics and Space Administrations (NASA) Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) experiment, a field campaign conducted in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A total of 135 dropsondes are analyzed in two separate time periods: one named the secondary eyewall formation period and the other one referred to as the decaying-double eyewalled storm period. During the secondary eyewall formation period, a time when the storm was observed to have only one eyewall, the diagnosed agradient force has a secondary maxima that coincides with the radial location of the secondary eyewall observed in the second period of study. The maximum spin up tendency of the radial influx of absolute vertical vorticity is within the boundary layer in the region of the eyewall of the storm and the spin up tendency structure elongates radially outward into the secondary region of supergradient wind, where the secondary wind maxima is observed in the second period of study. An analysis of the boundary layer averaged vertical structure of equivalent potential temperature reveals a conditionally unstable environment in the secondary eyewall formation region. These findings support the hypothesis that deep convective activity in this region contributed to spin up of the boundary layer tangential winds and the formation of a secondary eyewall that is observed during the decaying-double eyewalled storm period.

On the secondary eyewall formation of Hurricane Edouard (2014).

PubMed

Abarca, Sergio F; Montgomery, Michael T; Braun, Scott A; Dunion, Jason

2016-09-01

A first observationally-based estimation of departures from gradient wind balance during secondary eyewall formation is presented. The study is based on the Atlantic Hurricane Edouard (2014). This storm was observed during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) experiment, a field campaign conducted in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A total of 135 dropsondes are analyzed in two separate time periods: one named the secondary eyewall formation period and the other one referred to as the decaying-double eyewalled storm period. During the secondary eyewall formation period, a time when the storm was observed to have only one eyewall, the diagnosed agradient force has a secondary maxima that coincides with the radial location of the secondary eyewall observed in the second period of study. The maximum spin up tendency of the radial influx of absolute vertical vorticity is within the boundary layer in the region of the eyewall of the storm and the spin up tendency structure elongates radially outward into the secondary region of supergradient wind, where the secondary wind maxima is observed in the second period of study. An analysis of the boundary-layer averaged vertical structure of equivalent potential temperature reveals a conditionally unstable environment in the secondary eyewall formation region. These findings support the hypothesis that deep convective activity in this region contributed to spin up of the boundary layer tangential winds and the formation of a secondary eyewall that is observed during the decaying-double eyewalled storm period.

The genesis of Hurricane Nate and its interaction with a nearby environment of very dry air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutherford, Blake; Dunkerton, Timothy; Montgomery, Michael; Braun, Scott

2017-09-01

The interaction of a tropical disturbance with its environment is thought to play an important role in whether a disturbance will develop or not. Most developing disturbances are somewhat protected from the intrusion of environmental dry air at mid-levels. For African easterly wave (AEW) disturbances, the protective boundary is approximated by closed streamlines in the wave-relative frame, and their interior is called the wave pouch. The dynamic and thermodynamic processes of spin-up occur inside the pouch. In this study, we define the kinematic boundaries for a non-AEW disturbance in the Bay of Campeche that originated along a sharp frontal boundary in a confluent region of low pressure. We examine these boundaries during the genesis of Hurricane Nate (2011) to show how a pouch boundary on isobaric levels in the Lagrangian frame may allow for some transport into the pouch along the frontal boundary while still protecting the innermost development region. This result illustrates a generic property of weakly unsteady flows, including the time-dependent critical layer of AEWs, that lateral exchange of air occurs along a segment of the boundary formed by the instantaneous, closed translating streamlines. Transport in the Lagrangian frame is simplest when measured with respect to the stable and unstable manifolds of a hyperbolic trajectory, which are topologically invariant. In this framework, an exact analysis of vorticity transport identifies the primary source as the advection of vorticity through the entrainment and expulsion of bounded material regions called lobes. We also show how these Lagrangian boundaries impact the concentration of moisture, influence convection, and contribute to the pouch vertical structure.

Simulation of the Impact of New Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Timothy; Atlas, Robert; Black, Peter; Chen, Shuyi; Hood, Robbie; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Chris; Uhlhorn, Eric

2008-01-01

The H*Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of surface wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data sub/wind.html. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new passive microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRAD is being designed to enhance the current real-time airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft using the operational airbome Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approximately 3 x the aircraft altitude, or approximately 2 km from space). The instrument is described in a separate paper presented at this conference. The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a numerical model from the University of Miami, and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses. Evaluations will be presented on the relative impact of HIRAD and other instruments on H*Wind analyses, including the use of HIRAD from 2 aircraft altitudes and from a space-based platform.

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft-and Satellite-based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on Wind Analyses and Numerical Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, TImothy; Atlas, Robert; Black, Peter; Chen, Shuyi; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Chris; Uhlhorn, Eric; Gamache, John; Amarin, Ruba; El-Nimri, Salem;

Development of a new morphometric to assess beach storm response and recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenner, O.; Hapke, C. J.

2014-12-01

Various morphometrics are used to measure coastal change over a variety of time scales including shoreline, dune elevation and position, and beach profile volume. Each has limitations, many of which became apparent in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, including the juxtaposition of levelled dunes and a substantially prograded shoreline. In order to understand sustained beach behavior, including recovery after Hurricane Sandy, we develop a new morphometric - an upper beach change envelope (BCE) specific to Fire Island, NY. The upper beach better captures impacts from more frequent moderate storms during which there may be substantial beach change but less impact to the dune, and is less subject to the variable fluctuations nearer to the shoreline that only marginally influence future vulnerability and overall coastal resilience. The BCE can also be used to quantify the gradual recovery of the beach after storm events and is not reliant on the presence of a morphologic feature such as a dune, which may take many years to recover after a severe storm.The BCE at Fire Island is based on a time series of historical response to storms. The BCE boundaries are elevation contours that capture the portion of the upper beach that experiences erosion during moderate nor'easter events but is above the influence of tides and lesser events. In an application of the BCE concept, we use the BCE boundary elevations to quantify beach response from Hurricane Sandy and document the subsequent recovery, using a time series of post-Sandy elevation contours. The data include 10 profile sites from Fire Island that were surveyed multiple times from October 2012 to June 2014. Utilizing this time series we measure changes in the cross shore position of the BCE elevation boundaries. Initial assessments indicate the BCE successfully captures coastal response through time, including extensive change during Hurricane Sandy as well as subsequent seasonal changes. The recent data indicate there is a temporal trend towards widening of the BCE, due to sustained progradation of the lower boundary. This trend may represent a new "recovery state" of the beach which is wider than the pre-Sandy beach, providing an increase in the fetch that favors the aeolian processes of dune reformation.

Unique Datasets Collected by NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft during the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zawislak, J.; Reasor, P.

2017-12-01

Each year, NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) Hurricane Research Division (HRD), in partnership with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), operates a hurricane field program, the Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX). The experiment leverages the NOAA P-3 and G-IV hurricane hunter aircraft, based at NOAA's Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO) Aircraft Operations Center (AOC). The goals of IFEX are to improve understanding of physical processes in tropical cyclones (TCs), improve operational forecasts of TC intensity, structure, and rainfall by providing data into operational numerical modeling systems, and to develop and refine measurement technologies. This season the IFEX program, leveraging mainly operationally tasked EMC and NHC missions, sampled extensively Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria, and Nate, as well as Tropical Storm Franklin. We will contribute to this important session by providing an overview of aircraft missions into these storms, guidance on the datasets made available from instruments onboard the P-3 and G-IV, and will offer some perspective on the science that can be addressed with these unique datasets, such as the value of those datasets towards model forecast improvement. NOAA aircraft sampled these storms during critical periods of intensification, and for Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, just prior to the devastating landfalls in the Caribbean and United States. The unique instrument suite on the P-3 offers inner core observations of the three-dimensional precipitation and vortex structure, lower troposphere (boundary layer) thermodynamic properties, and surface wind speed. In contrast, the G-IV flies at higher altitudes, sampling the environment surrounding the storms, and provides deep-tropospheric soundings from dropsondes.

SIMULATING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUTFLOW AFTER HURRICANE KATRINA

EPA Science Inventory

Hurricane Katrina was the direct cause of the flooding of New Orleans in September 2005. Between its passage and the pumping of flood waters back into Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi River, the flood waters acquired considerable amounts of contaminants, notably silver, but...

MODELING HOW A HURRICANE BARRIER IN NEW BEDFORD HARBOR, MASSACHUSETTS, AFFECTS THE HYDRODYNAMICS AND RESIDENCE TIMES

EPA Science Inventory

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic and transport models were used to simulate tidal and subtidal circulation, residence times, and the longitudinal distributions of conservative constituents in New Bedford Harbor, Massachusetts, before and after a hurricane barrier was constructed. The...

Influences of the Saharan Air Layer on the Formation and Intensification of Hurricane Isabel (2003): Analysis of AIRS data and Numerical Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, L.; Braun, S. A.

2006-12-01

Over the past two decades, little advance has been made in prediction of tropical cyclone intensity while substantial improvements have been made in forecasting hurricane tracks. One reason is that we don't well understand the physical processes that govern tropical cyclone intensity. Recent studies have suggested that the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) may be yet another piece of the puzzle in advancing our understanding of tropical cyclone intensity change in the Atlantic basin. The SAL is an elevated mixed layer, forming as air moves across the vast Sahara Desert, in particular during boreal summer months. The SAL contains warm, dry air as well as a substantial amount of mineral dust, which can affect radiative heating and modify cloud processes. Using the retrieved temperature and humidity profiles from the AIRS suite on the NASA Aqua satellite, the SAL and its influences on the formation and intensification of Hurricane Isabel (2003) are analyzed and simulated with MM5. When the warmth and dryness of the SAL (the thermodynamic effect) is considered by relaxing the model thermodynamic state to the AIRS profiles, MM5 can well simulate the large-scale flow patterns and the activity of Hurricane Isabel in terms of the timing and location of formation and the subsequent track. Compared with the experiment without nudging the AIRS data, it is suggested that the simulated SAL effect may delay the formation and intensification of Hurricane Isabel. This case study generally confirms the argument by Dunion and Velden (2004) that the SAL can suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone activity by increasing the vertical wind shear, reducing the mean relative humidity, and stabilizing the environment at lower levels.

Data and numerical analysis of astronomic tides, wind-waves, and hurricane storm surge along the northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Cox, A. T.; Salisbury, M.; Coggin, D.

2016-05-01

The northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) is a unique geophysical setting for complex tropical storm-induced hydrodynamic processes that occur across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Each hurricane includes its own distinctive characteristics and can cause unique and devastating storm surge when it strikes within the intricate geometric setting of the NGOM. While a number of studies have explored hurricane storm surge in the NGOM, few have attempted to describe storm surge and coastal inundation using observed data in conjunction with a single large-domain high-resolution numerical model. To better understand the oceanic and nearshore response to these tropical cyclones, we provide a detailed assessment, based on field measurements and numerical simulation, of the evolution of wind waves, water levels, and currents for Hurricanes Ivan (2004), Dennis (2005), Katrina (2005), and Isaac (2012), with focus on Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle coasts. The developed NGOM3 computational model describes the hydraulic connectivity among the various inlet and bay systems, Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, coastal rivers and adjacent marsh, and built infrastructure along the coastal floodplain. The outcome is a better understanding of the storm surge generating mechanisms and interactions among hurricane characteristics and the NGOM's geophysical configuration. The numerical analysis and observed data explain the ˜2 m/s hurricane-induced geostrophic currents across the continental shelf, a 6 m/s outflow current during Ivan, the hurricane-induced coastal Kelvin wave along the shelf, and for the first time a wealth of measured data and a detailed numerical simulation was performed and was presented for Isaac.

A Lagrangian Analysis of a Developing and Non-Developing Disturbance Observed During the PREDICT Experiment

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-03

paper provides an introduction of Lagrangian techniques for locating flow boundaries that encompass regions of recirculation in time- dependent flows...the low- to mid- level embryonic vortex from adverse conditions, while the 1The glossary on NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division’s web - site uses...wave or disturbance. This paper provides an introduction of Lagrangian techniques for locating flow boundaries that encompass regions of recirculation

The Coplane Analysis Technique for Three-Dimensional Wind Retrieval Using the HIWRAP Airborne Doppler Radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Didlake, Anthony C., Jr.; Heymsfield, Gerald M.; Tian, Lin; Guimond, Stephen R.

2015-01-01

The coplane analysis technique for mapping the three-dimensional wind field of precipitating systems is applied to the NASA High Altitude Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP). HIWRAP is a dual-frequency Doppler radar system with two downward pointing and conically scanning beams. The coplane technique interpolates radar measurements to a natural coordinate frame, directly solves for two wind components, and integrates the mass continuity equation to retrieve the unobserved third wind component. This technique is tested using a model simulation of a hurricane and compared to a global optimization retrieval. The coplane method produced lower errors for the cross-track and vertical wind components, while the global optimization method produced lower errors for the along-track wind component. Cross-track and vertical wind errors were dependent upon the accuracy of the estimated boundary condition winds near the surface and at nadir, which were derived by making certain assumptions about the vertical velocity field. The coplane technique was then applied successfully to HIWRAP observations of Hurricane Ingrid (2013). Unlike the global optimization method, the coplane analysis allows for a transparent connection between the radar observations and specific analysis results. With this ability, small-scale features can be analyzed more adequately and erroneous radar measurements can be identified more easily.

Modeling extreme hurricane damage in the United States using generalized Pareto distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Asim Kumer

Extreme value distributions are used to understand and model natural calamities, man made catastrophes and financial collapses. Extreme value theory has been developed to study the frequency of such events and to construct a predictive model so that one can attempt to forecast the frequency of a disaster and the amount of damage from such a disaster. In this study, hurricane damages in the United States from 1900-2012 have been studied. The aim of the paper is three-fold. First, normalizing hurricane damage and fitting an appropriate model for the normalized damage data. Secondly, predicting the maximum economic damage from a hurricane in future by using the concept of return period. Finally, quantifying the uncertainty in the inference of extreme return levels of hurricane losses by using a simulated hurricane series, generated by bootstrap sampling. Normalized hurricane damage data are found to follow a generalized Pareto distribution. tion. It is demonstrated that standard deviation and coecient of variation increase with the return period which indicates an increase in uncertainty with model extrapolation.

Hurricanes and Climate: the U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walsh, Kevin; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Daloz, Anne Sophie; Elsner, James; Emanuel, Kerry; Horn, Michael; Lim, Young-Kwon; Roberts, Malcolm; Patricola, Christina;

Improved Hurricane Boundary Layer Observations with the Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Esteban-Fernandez, Daniel; Changy, P.; Carswell, J.; Contreras, R.; Chu, T.

2006-01-01

During the NOAA/NESDIS 2005 Hurricane Season (HS2005) and the 2006 Winter Experiment, the University of Massachusetts (UMass) installed two instruments on the NOAA N42RF WP-3D research aircraft: the Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (IWRAP) and the Simultaneous Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). IWRAP is a dual-band (C- and Ku), dual-polarized pencil-beam airborne radar that profiles the volume backscatter and Doppler velocity from rain and that also measures the ocean backscatter response. It simultaneously profiles along four separate incidence angles while conically scanning at 60 RPM. SFMR is a C-band nadir viewing radiometer that measures the emission from the ocean surface and intervening atmosphere simultaneously at six frequencies. It is designed to obtain the surface wind speed and the column average rain rate. Both instruments have previously been flown during the 2002, 2003 and 2004 hurricane seasons. For the HS2005, the IWRAP system was modified to implement a raw data acquisition system. The importance of the raw data system arises when trying to profile the atmosphere all the way down to the surface with a non-nadir looking radar system. With this particular geometry, problems arise mainly from the fact that both rain and ocean provide a return echo coincident in time through the antenna s main lobe. This paper shows how this limitation has been removed and presents initial results demonstrating its new capabilities to derive the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) wind field within the inner core of hurricanes to much lower altitudes than the ones the original system was capable of, and to analyze the spectral response of the ocean backscatter and the rain under different wind and rain conditions.

Deployment simulation of a deployable reflector for earth science application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaokai; Fang, Houfei; Cai, Bei; Ma, Xiaofei

2015-10-01

A novel mission concept namely NEXRAD-In-Space (NIS) has been developed for monitoring hurricanes, cyclones and other severe storms from a geostationary orbit. It requires a space deployable 35-meter diameter Ka-band (35 GHz) reflector. NIS can measure hurricane precipitation intensity, dynamics and its life cycle. These information is necessary for predicting the track, intensity, rain rate and hurricane-induced floods. To meet the requirements of the radar system, a Membrane Shell Reflector Segment (MSRS) reflector technology has been developed and several technologies have been evaluated. However, the deployment analysis of this large size and high-precision reflector has not been investigated. For a pre-studies, a scaled tetrahedral truss reflector with spring driving deployment system has been made and tested, deployment dynamics analysis of this scaled reflector has been performed using ADAMS to understand its deployment dynamic behaviors. Eliminating the redundant constraints in the reflector system with a large number of moving parts is a challenging issue. A primitive joint and flexible struts were introduced to the analytical model and they can effectively eliminate over constraints of the model. By using a high-speed camera and a force transducer, a deployment experiment of a single-bay tetrahedral module has been conducted. With the tested results, an optimization process has been performed by using the parameter optimization module of ADAMS to obtain the parameters of the analytical model. These parameters were incorporated to the analytical model of the whole reflector. It is observed from the analysis results that the deployment process of the reflector with a fixed boundary experiences three stages. These stages are rapid deployment stage, slow deployment stage and impact stage. The insight of the force peak distributions of the reflector can help the optimization design of the structure.

West Florida Shelf Response to Hurricane Irma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Weisberg, R. H.; Chen, J.; Merz, C. R.; Law, J.; Zheng, L.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Irma impacted the west Florida continental shelf (WFS) as it transited the state of Florida during September 10-12, 2017, making landfall first at Cudjoe Key and then again at Naples, as a Category 2 hurricane. The WFS response to Hurricane Irma is analyzed using a combination of in situ observations and numerical model simulations. The observations include water column velocity (by Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers), sea surface temperature and meteorological records from three moorings on the shelf, surface currents by high-frequency radars, and coastal tide gauge records. The West Florida Coastal Ocean Model (WFCOM) employed downscales from the deep Gulf of Mexico, across the shelf and into the estuaries by nesting the unstructured grid FVCOM in the Gulf of Mexico HYCOM. Both the observations and the model simulations revealed strong upwelling and vertical mixing followed by downwelling as the storm passed by. This was accompanied by a rapid drop in sea surface temperature of approximately 4ºC and large decreases in sea level with associated negative surges, causing drying in the Florida Bay, Charlotte Harbor, Tampa Bay estuaries and the Big Bend region. The transport and exchange of water between the shelf and the estuaries and between the shelf and the Florida Keys reef track during the hurricane may have important implications for ecosystem studies within the region.

Atlantic hurricane response to geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, John; Grinsted, Aslak; Ji, Duoying; Yu, Xiaoyong; Guo, Xiaoran

2015-04-01

Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase - perhaps by a factor of 5 for a 2°C mean global warming. Geoengineering by sulphate aerosol injection preferentially cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 6 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. We find that although temperatures are ameliorated by geoengineering, the numbers of storm surge events as big as that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are only slightly reduced compared with no geoengineering. As higher levels of sulphate aerosol injection produce diminishing returns in terms of cooling, but cause undesirable effects in various regions, it seems that stratospheric aerosol geoengineering is not an effective method of controlling hurricane damage.

Improvements in the Scalability of the NASA Goddard Multiscale Modeling Framework for Hurricane Climate Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Bo-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiun-Dar

2007-01-01

Improving our understanding of hurricane inter-annual variability and the impact of climate change (e.g., doubling CO2 and/or global warming) on hurricanes brings both scientific and computational challenges to researchers. As hurricane dynamics involves multiscale interactions among synoptic-scale flows, mesoscale vortices, and small-scale cloud motions, an ideal numerical model suitable for hurricane studies should demonstrate its capabilities in simulating these interactions. The newly-developed multiscale modeling framework (MMF, Tao et al., 2007) and the substantial computing power by the NASA Columbia supercomputer show promise in pursuing the related studies, as the MMF inherits the advantages of two NASA state-of-the-art modeling components: the GEOS4/fvGCM and 2D GCEs. This article focuses on the computational issues and proposes a revised methodology to improve the MMF's performance and scalability. It is shown that this prototype implementation enables 12-fold performance improvements with 364 CPUs, thereby making it more feasible to study hurricane climate.

Genesis of Pre-Hurricane Felix (2007). Part I: The Role of the Easterly Wave Critical Layer

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

the boundary layer does not overcome the positive entropy flux from the ocean surface. As suggested by Montgomery et al. (2006), cold pools of...Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a high-resolution nested grid configuration that permits the representation of cloud system processes...from the jet level to the top of the atmospheric boundary layer. The region of a quasi-closed Lagrangian circulation within the wave pouch provides a

Using Enabling Technologies to Facilitate the Comparison of Satellite Observations with the Model Forecasts for Hurricane Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, P.; Knosp, B.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Niamsuwan, N.; Johnson, M. P.; Shen, T. P. J.; Tanelli, S.; Turk, J.; Vu, Q. A.

2014-12-01

Due to their complexity and volume, the satellite data are underutilized in today's hurricane research and operations. To better utilize these data, we developed the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) - an Interactive Data Portal providing fusion between Near-Real-Time satellite observations and model forecasts to facilitate model evaluation and improvement. We have collected satellite observations and model forecasts in the Atlantic Basin and the East Pacific for the hurricane seasons since 2010 and supported the NASA Airborne Campaigns for Hurricane Study such as the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) in 2010 and the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) from 2012 to 2014. To enable the direct inter-comparisons of the satellite observations and the model forecasts, the TCIS was integrated with the NASA Earth Observing System Simulator Suite (NEOS3) to produce synthetic observations (e.g. simulated passive microwave brightness temperatures) from a number of operational hurricane forecast models (HWRF and GFS). An automated process was developed to trigger NEOS3 simulations via web services given the location and time of satellite observations, monitor the progress of the NEOS3 simulations, display the synthetic observation and ingest them into the TCIS database when they are done. In addition, three analysis tools, the joint PDF analysis of the brightness temperatures, ARCHER for finding the storm-center and the storm organization and the Wave Number Analysis tool for storm asymmetry and morphology analysis were integrated into TCIS to provide statistical and structural analysis on both observed and synthetic data. Interactive tools were built in the TCIS visualization system to allow the spatial and temporal selections of the datasets, the invocation of the tools with user specified parameters, and the display and the delivery of the results. In this presentation, we will describe the key enabling technologies behind the design of the TCIS interactive data portal and analysis tools, including the spatial database technology for the representation and query of the level 2 satellite data, the automatic process flow using web services, the interactive user interface using the Google Earth API, and a common and expandable Python wrapper to invoke the analysis tools.

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses and Numerical Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Timothy; Atlas, Robert; Black, Peter; Chen, Shuyi; Hood, Robbie; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Chris; Uhlhorn, Eric; Krishnamurti, T. N.;

The Impact of Microphysics on Intensity and Structure of Hurricanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shi, Jainn; Lang, Steve; Peters-Lidard, Christa

2006-01-01

During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models, e.g. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with a 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WFW is a next-generation mesoscale forecast model and assimilation system that has incorporated modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numeric and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WFW model can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options such as Lin et al. (1983), WSM 6-class and Thompson microphysics schemes. We have recently implemented three sophisticated cloud microphysics schemes into WRF. The cloud microphysics schemes have been extensively tested and applied for different mesoscale systems in different geographical locations. The performances of these schemes have been compared to those from other WRF microphysics options. We are performing sensitivity tests in using WW to examine the impact of six different cloud microphysical schemes on hurricane track, intensity and rainfall forecast. We are also performing the inline tracer calculation to comprehend the physical processes @e., boundary layer and each quadrant in the boundary layer) related to the development and structure of hurricanes.

SIMULATION OF FRESHWATER PLUME FROM LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE KATRINA

EPA Science Inventory

In the spirit of a post-Katrina response, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was set up and applied to the hurricane Katrina affected region of Mississippi River delta, Lake Pontchartran, and the Gulf of Mexico coastline near New Orleans. Following Katrina, there was concern ...

Gusts and shear within hurricane eyewalls can exceed offshore wind turbine design standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worsnop, Rochelle P.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Bryan, George H.; Damiani, Rick; Musial, Walt

2017-06-01

Offshore wind energy development is underway in the U.S., with proposed sites located in hurricane-prone regions. Turbine design criteria outlined by the International Electrotechnical Commission do not encompass the extreme wind speeds and directional shifts of hurricanes stronger than category 2. We examine a hurricane's turbulent eyewall using large-eddy simulations with Cloud Model 1. Gusts and mean wind speeds near the eyewall of a category 5 hurricane exceed the current Class I turbine design threshold of 50 m s-1 mean wind and 70 m s-1 gusts. Largest gust factors occur at the eye-eyewall interface. Further, shifts in wind direction suggest that turbines must rotate or yaw faster than current practice. Although current design standards omit mention of wind direction change across the rotor layer, large values (15-50°) suggest that veer should be considered.

Gusts and shear within hurricane eyewalls can exceed offshore wind turbine design standards

DOE PAGES

Worsnop, Rochelle P.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Bryan, George H.; ...

2017-05-30

Here, offshore wind energy development is underway in the U.S., with proposed sites located in hurricane-prone regions. Turbine design criteria outlined by the International Electrotechnical Commission do not encompass the extreme wind speeds and directional shifts of hurricanes stronger than category 2. We examine a hurricane's turbulent eyewall using large-eddy simulations with Cloud Model 1. Gusts and mean wind speeds near the eyewall of a category 5 hurricane exceed the current Class I turbine design threshold of 50 m s –1 mean wind and 70 m s –1 gusts. Largest gust factors occur at the eye-eyewall interface. Further, shifts inmore » wind direction suggest that turbines must rotate or yaw faster than current practice. Although current design standards omit mention of wind direction change across the rotor layer, large values (15–50°) suggest that veer should be considered.« less

Gusts and shear within hurricane eyewalls can exceed offshore wind turbine design standards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Worsnop, Rochelle P.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Bryan, George H.

Here, offshore wind energy development is underway in the U.S., with proposed sites located in hurricane-prone regions. Turbine design criteria outlined by the International Electrotechnical Commission do not encompass the extreme wind speeds and directional shifts of hurricanes stronger than category 2. We examine a hurricane's turbulent eyewall using large-eddy simulations with Cloud Model 1. Gusts and mean wind speeds near the eyewall of a category 5 hurricane exceed the current Class I turbine design threshold of 50 m s –1 mean wind and 70 m s –1 gusts. Largest gust factors occur at the eye-eyewall interface. Further, shifts inmore » wind direction suggest that turbines must rotate or yaw faster than current practice. Although current design standards omit mention of wind direction change across the rotor layer, large values (15–50°) suggest that veer should be considered.« less

NASA/NOAA/AMS Earth Science Electronic Theater

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hasler, Fritz

1999-01-01

Selections from the following very large Earth science observed & simulated datasets shown from: Historical: GOES-10 & AVHRR, SeaWIFS, TRMM, Meteosat, GMS, FY2, and ADEOS. and Simulated: EOS-AM1, Landsat 7, Astrovision, and 3D numerical storm model. Also highlights of the 1998 Hurricane & Severe Storm Seasons will be reviewed. A spectacular animations of La Nina season hurricanes: Bonnie, Georges, etc. 5000 frame 5-min GOES 10 continuous 28 day animation of the'98 Spring tornadic thunderstorm season and other special GOES test datasets will be shown.

An Analysis of the Observed Low-level Structure of Rapidly Intensifying and Mature Hurricane Earl (2010)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

characteristics of the boundary layer The studies by Braun and Tao (2000) and Smith and Thomsen (2010) have elevated awareness of an important problem ...estimates also of forecast uncertainty which follow from the uncertainty in not knowing the optimum boundary-layer scheme to use. In an effort to address this...Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2014) DOI:10.1002/qj.2283 An analysis of the observed low-level

Numerical simulation of groundwater movement and managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir, Hurricane Bench area, Washington County, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

2012-01-01

The Hurricane Bench area of Washington County, Utah, is a 70 square-mile area extending south from the Virgin River and encompassing Sand Hollow basin. Sand Hollow Reservoir, located on Hurricane Bench, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily as a managed aquifer recharge project by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. The reservoir is situated on a thick sequence of the Navajo Sandstone and Kayenta Formation. Total recharge to the underlying Navajo aquifer from the reservoir was about 86,000 acre-feet from 2002 to 2009. Natural recharge as infiltration of precipitation was approximately 2,100 acre-feet per year for the same period. Discharge occurs as seepage to the Virgin River, municipal and irrigation well withdrawals, and seepage to drains at the base of reservoir dams. Within the Hurricane Bench area, unconfined groundwater-flow conditions generally exist throughout the Navajo Sandstone. Navajo Sandstone hydraulic-conductivity values from regional aquifer testing range from 0.8 to 32 feet per day. The large variability in hydraulic conductivity is attributed to bedrock fractures that trend north-northeast across the study area.A numerical groundwater-flow model was developed to simulate groundwater movement in the Hurricane Bench area and to simulate the movement of managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir through the groundwater system. The model was calibrated to combined steady- and transient-state conditions. The steady-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data that represented average conditions for 1975. The transient-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data collected from 1976 to 2009. Areally, the model grid was 98 rows by 76 columns with a variable cell size ranging from about 1.5 to 25 acres. Smaller cells were used to represent the reservoir to accurately simulate the reservoir bathymetry and nearby monitoring wells; larger cells were used in the northern and southern portions of the model where water-level data were limited. Vertically, the aquifer system was divided into 10 layers, which incorporated the Navajo Sandstone and Kayenta Formation. The model simulated recharge to the groundwater system as natural infiltration of precipitation and as infiltration of managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir. Groundwater discharge was simulated as well withdrawals, shallow drains at the base of reservoir dams, and seepage to the Virgin River. During calibration, variables were adjusted within probable ranges to minimize differences among model-simulated and observed water levels, groundwater travel times, drain discharges, and monthly estimated reservoir recharge.

Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.

Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model -based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes,more » manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into the forest over the long-term. The carbon loss from each hurricane event, in all scenarios, always recovered over sufficient time. Our results suggest that subtropical dry forests will remain resilient to hurricane disturbance. However carbon stocks will decrease if future climates increase hurricane frequency by 50% or more.« less

Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.; Shugart, Herman H.

2017-02-01

Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model-based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes, manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into the forest over the long-term. The carbon loss from each hurricane event, in all scenarios, always recovered over sufficient time. Our results suggest that subtropical dry forests will remain resilient to hurricane disturbance. However carbon stocks will decrease if future climates increase hurricane frequency by 50% or more.

Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

DOE PAGES

Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.; ...

2017-02-07

Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model -based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes,more » manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into the forest over the long-term. The carbon loss from each hurricane event, in all scenarios, always recovered over sufficient time. Our results suggest that subtropical dry forests will remain resilient to hurricane disturbance. However carbon stocks will decrease if future climates increase hurricane frequency by 50% or more.« less

Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

Treesearch

Jennifer A Holm; Skip J Van Bloem; Guy R Larocque; Herman H Shugart

2017-01-01

Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model-based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical...

Variation of Strom Surge Propagation in a Shallow Estuary with Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrington, T. O., Jr.; Blumberg, A. F.

2014-12-01

Hurricane Sandy made landfall along the New Jersey coast at 8pm EDT on October 29th, 2012. At landfall wind gusts of between 129 and 145 km/hr were recorded in New York and New Jersey. The large wind field associated with the storm generated an extreme storm surge north of the eye at landfall resulting in high-velocity overland storm surge along the northern barrier Islands of the Barnegat Bay followed 7 hours later by a rapid rise in water level along the bayside of the barrier islands. A high-resolution, hydrodynamic model for the Barnegat Bay estuary; including its vast intertidal areas, has been developed and validated to simulate the observed Sandy storm surge. The Barnegat Bay Inundation Model (BBIMS) has a constant 100m resolution and is nested within the three dimensional Stevens NYHOPS ocean circulation model at its offshore open boundary. Wetting and drying of land features in the model's external time step is as low as 0.1 sec in its 2D barotropic mode. This mode provides for the dynamic prediction of depth integrated flood elevations and velocities across land features during inundation events. The BBIMS was calibrated using the NYHOPS hindcast of Hurricane Sandy. The hindcast utilized Sandy over ocean wind field and atmospheric pressure data, offshore wave and tidal boundary forcing, atmospheric heat fluxes, interior stream flow data and was validated against observed water levels and measured high water marks. A comparison against 6 water level time series measured by USGS tide gauges located in the Barnegat Bay verified that the model is able to capture the spatial and temporal variation of water levels in the Bay observed during Hurricane Sandy. A comparison against the verified high water marks found that the model is capable of hincasting overland water elevation to within 0.63ft (one standard deviation) at 71% of the total water marks measured. The modeling results show that strong northerly winds along the axis of the estuary prior to landfall suppressed the storm surge in the northern portion of the Bay. A rapid shift in wind direction to southerly winds after landfall allowed the surge to propagate north up the estuary as a shallow water wave (Figure 1). The effect of future sea levels on surge propagation in the estuary is investigated through increases in model mean sea level.

Numerical simulation of a low-lying barrier island's morphological response to Hurricane Katrina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindemer, C.A.; Plant, N.G.; Puleo, J.A.; Thompson, D.M.; Wamsley, T.V.

2010-01-01

Tropical cyclones that enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico generate storm surge and large waves that impact low-lying coastlines along the Gulf Coast. The Chandeleur Islands, located 161. km east of New Orleans, Louisiana, have endured numerous hurricanes that have passed nearby. Hurricane Katrina (landfall near Waveland MS, 29 Aug 2005) caused dramatic changes to the island elevation and shape. In this paper the predictability of hurricane-induced barrier island erosion and accretion is evaluated using a coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model known as XBeach. Pre- and post-storm island topography was surveyed with an airborne lidar system. Numerical simulations utilized realistic surge and wave conditions determined from larger-scale hydrodynamic models. Simulations included model sensitivity tests with varying grid size and temporal resolutions. Model-predicted bathymetry/topography and post-storm survey data both showed similar patterns of island erosion, such as increased dissection by channels. However, the model under predicted the magnitude of erosion. Potential causes for under prediction include (1) errors in the initial conditions (the initial bathymetry/topography was measured three years prior to Katrina), (2) errors in the forcing conditions (a result of our omission of storms prior to Katrina and/or errors in Katrina storm conditions), and/or (3) physical processes that were omitted from the model (e.g., inclusion of sediment variations and bio-physical processes). ?? 2010.

Landscape analysis and pattern of hurricane impact and circulation on mangrove forests of the everglades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, T.W.; Krauss, K.W.; Wells, C.J.

2009-01-01

The Everglades ecosystem contains the largest contiguous tract of mangrove forest outside the tropics that were also coincidentally intersected by a major Category 5 hurricane. Airborne videography was flown to capture the landscape pattern and process of forest damage in relation to storm trajectory and circulation. Two aerial video transects, representing different topographic positions, were used to quantify forest damage from video frame analysis in relation to prevailing wind force, treefall direction, and forest height. A hurricane simulation model was applied to reconstruct wind fields corresponding to the ground location of each video frame and to correlate observed treefall and destruction patterns with wind speed and direction. Mangrove forests within the storm's eyepath and in the right-side (forewind) quadrants suffered whole or partial blowdowns, while left-side (backwind) sites south of the eyewall zone incurred moderate canopy reduction and defoliation. Sites along the coastal transect sustained substantially more storm damage than sites along the inland transect which may be attributed to differences in stand exposure and/or stature. Observed treefall directions were shown to be non-random and associated with hurricane trajectory and simulated forewind azimuths. Wide-area sampling using airborne videography provided an efficient adjunct to limited ground observations and improved our spatial understanding of how hurricanes imprint landscape-scale patterns of disturbance. ?? 2009 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Power Spectra and Eddy Dissipation Rate Measured by the Coyote Unmanned Aircraft System in Hurricane Edouard (2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalina, E.; Cione, J.; Bryan, G. H.; Lenschow, D. H.; Fairall, C. W.

2016-12-01

Open-ocean measurements of turbulence variables in the tropical cyclone (TC) boundary layer are rare, given the dangers posed by convective downdrafts, high waves, and sea spray to manned hurricane reconnaissance aircraft. The Coyote Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) represents an opportunity to mitigate the risk to personnel while simultaneously collecting low-altitude measurements of air pressure, temperature, humidity, and wind in TCs. In 2014, the Coyote UAS flew at a height of h = 760 m in Hurricane Edouard for 45 min. The resulting wind velocity measurements were used to estimate the turbulent eddy dissipation rate (ɛ) along the Coyote flight track, using power spectra and the second-order velocity structure function. Power spectra of both the longitudinal (Suu) and transverse wind components (Svv) exhibited well-defined inertial subranges with five-thirds scaling, as expected from Kolmogorov (1941). The ratio Svv:Suu was 4:3, in agreement with theory. Under the moderate wind speeds (15-25 m s-1) sampled by the Coyote, estimates of ɛ from the power spectra and structure function ranged from 2-3.5×10-4 m2 s-3. An idealized TC simulation with Cloud Model version 1 (CM1) and a horizontal grid spacing of dx = 20 m was then used to support the observed estimates of ɛ. Along the mock Coyote flight path, the model domain-averaged value of ɛ was 3.0×10-4 m2 s-3, which is within the range of the observationally-based estimates. This agreement was achieved despite the relatively slow sampling rate (1 Hz) of the Coyote sensors and occasional missing data. Therefore, a 1-Hz sampling rate may be adequate for estimating ɛ, and time series with missing samples may still contain the necessary information to estimate the power spectra and structure functions, and thus ɛ. These findings are motivating subsequent Coyote flights into high-wind regions of TCs to collect turbulence measurements that will be used to evaluate subgrid turbulence schemes for numerical models. Future flights in the surface layer (h < 100 m) will also be used to measure the surface drag coefficient at hurricane-force wind speeds.

The impact of Saharan Dust on the genesis and evolution of Hurricane Earl (2010)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, B.; Wang, Y.; Hsieh, J. S.; Lin, Y.; Hu, J.; Zhang, R.

2017-12-01

Dust, one of the most abundant natural aerosols, can exert substantial radiative and microphysical effects on the regional climate and has potential impacts on the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). A Weather Research and Forecasting Model and the Regional Oceanic Modeling System coupled model (WRF-ROMS) is used to simulate the evolution of Hurricane Earl (2010), of which Earl was interfered by Saharan dust at the TC genesis stage. A new dust module has been implemented to the TAMU two-moment microphysics scheme in the WRF model. It accounts for both dust as Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) and Ice Nuclei (IN). The hurricane track, intensity and precipitation have been compared to the best track data and TRMM precipitation, respectively. The influences of Saharan dust on Hurricane Earl are investigated with dust-CCN, dust-IN, and dust-free scenarios. The analysis shows that Saharan dust changes the latent heat and moisture distribution, invigorates the convections in the hurricane's eyewall, and suppresses the development of Earl. This finding addresses the importance of accounting dust microphysics effect on hurricane predictions.

Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Judi, David R.; Leung, L. Ruby

Coastal populations in the global tropics and sub-tropics are vulnerable to the devastating impacts of hurricane storm surge and this risk is only expected to rise under climate change. In this study, we address this issue for the U.S. Gulf and Florida coasts. Using the framework of Potential Intensity, observations and output from coupled climate models, we show that the future large-scale thermodynamic environment may become more favorable for hurricane intensification. Under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario and for the peak hurricane season months of August–October, we show that the mean intensities of Atlantic hurricanes may increase by 1.8–4.2 %more » and their lifetime maximum intensities may increase by 2.7–5.3 % when comparing the last two decades of the 20th and 21st centuries. We then combine our estimates of hurricane intensity changes with projections of sea-level rise to understand their relative impacts on future storm surge using simulations with the National Weather Service’s SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model for five historical hurricanes that made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Considering uncertainty in hurricane intensity changes and sea-level rise, our results indicate a median increase in storm surge ranging between 25 and 47 %, with changes in hurricane intensity increasing future storm surge by about 10 % relative to the increase that may result from sea level rise alone, with highly non-linear response of population at risk.« less

Impact of Hurricanes and Nor'easters on a Migrating Inlet System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, J.; Elgar, S.; Raubenheimer, B.

2016-12-01

After breaching in 2007, Katama Inlet, connecting Katama Bay to the Atlantic Ocean on the south shore of Martha's Vineyard, MA, migrated 2 km until it closed in 2015. Bathymetric surveys before and after Hurricanes Irene (2011) and Sandy (2012) indicate the strong waves and currents associated with these storms caused 2 m of erosion and deposition around the inlet mouth. The waves, currents, and bathymetric change observed during the hurricanes were used to validate the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic components of a Delft3D numerical model of the Martha's Vineyard coastline for storm (> 3 m wave heights) conditions. When driven with observed bathymetry and offshore waves, as well as simulated (WaveWatch3) winds and barometric pressures, the model reproduces the pattern and range of bathymetric change observed around the inlet. Model simulations of realistic (i.e., Irene and Sandy) and idealized storm conditions with a range of durations and wave conditions are used to test the relative importance of short-duration, high-intensity storms (hurricanes) and longer-duration, lower-intensity storms (nor'easters) on inlet migration. The simulations suggest that longer-duration, lower-intensity storms cause a higher range and variance in bathymetric change around the inlet than shorter-duration, higher-intensity storms. However, the simulations also suggest that the storm-induced migration of the inlet depends more on the wave direction at the peak of the storm than on the duration of the storm peak. The effect of storms on inlet migration over yearly time scales will be discussed. Funded by NSF, NOAA, ONR, and ASD(R&E).

Numerical simulations of tropical cyclones with assimilation of satellite, radar and in-situ observations: lessons learned from recent field programs and real-time experimental forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Z.; Zhang, L.

2010-12-01

The impact of data assimilation on the predictability of tropical cyclones is examined with the cases from recent field programs and real-time hurricane forecast experiments. Mesoscale numerical simulations are performed to simulate major typhoons during the T-PARC/TCS08 field campaign with the assimilation of satellite, radar and in-situ observations. Results confirmed that data assimilation has indeed resulted in improved numerical simulations of tropical cyclones. However, positive impacts from the satellite and radar data are strongly depend on the quality of these data. Specifically, it is found that the overall impacts of assimilating AIRS retrieved atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles on numerical simulations of tropical cyclones are very sensitive to the bias corrections of the data.For instance, the dry biases of moisture profiles can cause the decay of tropical cyclones in the numerical simulations.In addition, the quality of airborne Doppler radar data has strong influence on numerical simulations of tropical cyclones in terms of their track, intensity and precipitation structures. Outcomes from assimilating radar data with various quality thresholds suggest that a trade-off between the quality and area coverage of the radar data is necessary in the practice. Some of those experiences obtained from the field case studies are applied to the near-real time experimental hurricane forecasts during the 2010 hurricane season. Results and issues raised from the case studies and real-time experiments will be discussed.

Estimation of the CO2 fluxes between the ocean and atmosphere for the hurricane wind forces using remote sensing data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergeev, Daniil; Soustova, Irina; Balandina, Galina

2017-04-01

CO2 transfer between the hydrosphere and atmosphere in the boundary layer is an important part of the global cycle of the main greenhouse gas. Gas flux is determined by the difference of the partial pressures of the gas between the atmosphere and hydrosphere, near the border, as well as to a large extent processes involving turbulent boundary layer. The last is usually characterized by power dependence on the equivalent wind speed (10-m height). Hurricane-force winds lead to intensive wave breaking, with formation of spray in the air, and bubbles in the water. Such multiphase turbulent processes at the interface strongly intensify gas transfer. Currently, data characterizing the dependence of the gas exchange of the wind speed for the hurricane conditions demonstrate a strong variation. On the other hand there is an obvious problem of obtaining reliable data on the wind speed. Widely used reanalysis data typically underestimate wind speed, due to the low spatial and temporal resolution One of the most promising ways to measure near water wind speed is the use of the data of remote sensing. The present study used technique to obtain near water wind speed based on the processing of remote sensing of the ocean surface data obtained with C-band scattermeter of RADARSAT using geophysical model function, developed in a laboratory conditions for a wide range of wind speeds, including hurricanes (see [1]). This function binds wind speed with effective radar cross-section in cross-polarized mode. We used two different parameterizations of gas transfer velocity of the wind speed. Widely used in [2], and obtained by processing results of recent experiment in modeling winds up to hurricane on wind-wave facility [3]. The new method of calculating was tested by the example of hurricane Earl image (09.2010). Estimates showed 13-18 times excess CO2 fluxes rates in comparison with monitoring data NOAA (see. [4]). 1. Troitskaya Yu., Abramov V., Ermoshkin A., Zuikova E., Kazakov V., Sergeev D., Kandaurov A., Ermakova O. Laboratory study of cross-polarized radar return under gale-force wind conditions // Int. J. Remote Sens. 2016a. T. 37. № 9. C. 1981-1989. 2. Kanamitsu, M.,Ebisuzaki,W.,Woollen,J.,Yang,S.-K.,Hnilo,J.J.,Fiorino,M.,Potter, G.L.,.NCEP-DOEAMIP-IIreanalysis(R-2) // Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 2002, 83, 1631-1643. 3. K. E. Krall and B. Jahne First laboratory study of air-sea gas exchange at hurricane wind speeds // Ocean Sci., 2014, 10, 257-265. 4. ERDDAP EXPERIMENTAL. AOML Monthly Global Carbon Fluxes dataset. - ИнTepнeT-pecypc. Peжin дocTyпa: http://cwcgom.aoml.noaa.gov/erddap/griddap/aomlcarbonfluxes.graph.

Strong Updraft Feature Associated with Hurricane Earl During Landfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, Barry C.; Knupp, Kevin R.

2004-01-01

On 2-3 September 1998 hurricane Earl made landfall along the Gulf of Mexico coast, east of Panama City, FL. The University of Alabama in Huntsville Mobile Integrated Profiling System (MIPS) was located at the airport in Tallahassee, FL and made measurements of Earl with a 915 MHz Doppler wind profiler as the system moved across the Florida panhandle. As the center of Earl approached MIPS, a particularly strong updraft feature, having a magnitude of approx. 15 m/s within the lowest 3.0 km above ground level was associated with a rain band. An analysis of the changes hurricane Earl underwent as it made landfall are presented. Measurements used include surface thermodynamic and pressure observations, lightning data, National Weather Service Doppler Weather Surveillance Radar (WSR-88D) data, and Geostationary Earth Orbiting Satellite (GOES) data. Then an analysis focusing on the boundary layer properties and the updraft feature's depth, intensity and duration as measured by the MIPS 915 MHz Doppler wind profiler are presented.

Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970-2005.

PubMed

Logan, John R; Issar, Sukriti; Xu, Zengwang

2016-10-01

Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 1970-2005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawal-a form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harm's way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices.

Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970–2005

PubMed Central

Logan, John R.; Issar, Sukriti; Xu, Zengwang

2016-01-01

Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 1970–2005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawal—a form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harm’s way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices. PMID:27531504

A model-based approach to determine the long-term effects of multiple interacting stressors on coral reefs.

PubMed

Blackwood, Julie C; Hastings, Alan; Mumby, Peter J

2011-10-01

The interaction between multiple stressors on Caribbean coral reefs, namely, fishing effort and hurricane impacts, is a key element in the future sustainability of reefs. We develop an analytic model of coral-algal interactions and explicitly consider grazing by herbivorous reef fish. Further, we consider changes in structural complexity, or rugosity, in addition to the direct impacts of hurricanes, which are implemented as stochastic jump processes. The model simulations consider various levels of fishing effort corresponding to' several hurricane frequencies and impact levels dependent on geographic location. We focus on relatively short time scales so we do not explicitly include changes in ocean temperature, chemistry, or sea level rise. The general features of our approach would, however, apply to these other stressors and to the management of other systems in the face of multiple stressors. It is determined that the appropriate management policy, either local reef restoration or fisheries management, greatly depends on hurricane frequency and impact level. For sufficiently low hurricane impact and macroalgal growth rate, our results indicate that regions with lower-frequency hurricanes require stricter fishing regulations, whereas management in regions with higher-frequency hurricanes might be less concerned with enhancing grazing and instead consider whether local-scale restorative activities to increase vertical structure are cost-effective.

An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.

2017-12-01

A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

Development of the AOML Hurricane Research System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, K.; Gopalakrishnan, S.; Zhang, X.; Bao, J.; Quirino, T.; Sainani, V.; Rogers, R.; Aberson, S.; Marks, F.; Atlas, R.

2008-12-01

NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) has committed to the development of a modeling and data-assimilation system recently. This Hurricane Research System (HRS) aims to improve hurricane forecast by developing innovative modeling techniques, and by assimilating the hurricane inner-core data that is timely collected with aircrafts by the scientists at the AOML Hurricane Research Division (HRD), in addition to the data collected by other channels. We have started the development of the HRS by implementing a moving nest within a regional domain on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). The dynamically moving nest is used to track the hurricane with an enhanced resolution to better simulate the hurricane structure with more accurate dynamical and physical processes. Combining with the diagnostic expertise at the HRD, and benefiting from the community efforts, we have quickly composed the HRS with excellent ingredients from various organizations. This baseline system has been in experimental operation for this hurricane season, and early result with these experiments seems quite promising. We have also developed a new visualization tool and an efficient post-processor emphasizing diagnostic functionality to facilitate hurricane research. Further development of the HRS includes the implementation of a third, moving nest to advance the model resolution to 1 km or higher with the limited computing resource. Innovative model initialization techniques and versatile hurricane-diagnostic tools are undergoing development. An Ensemble Kalman Filter is being constructed for the HRS to assimilate observation data. Physical parameterizations are being refined to improve the forcing and heating mechanisms, and ocean model coupling is to be implemented for realistic air-sea interactions. We will report the status up to date.

Trends in afforestation in southern Missouri

Treesearch

W. Keith Moser; Mark D. Nelson; Mark H. Hansen; Sean Healey; Warren Cohen

2009-01-01

Past studies of forest disturbance traditionally have focused on biomass loss, e.g., blowdown in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, gypsy moth infestation, the impacts of Hurricanes Hugo and Katrina. Using FIA data and satellite imagery, this study examined a region of the country that is simultaneously experiencing biomass loss due to oak decline and biomass...

Estimation of the surface stress near the eye wall of hurricanes using WSR-88D radar data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Businger, S.; Morrison, I.; Marks, F.; Dodge, P.; Businger, J. A.

2003-04-01

Analysis of Doppler velocity data from the WSR-88D radar during hurricane landfall reveals evidence of organized secondary circulations in the vicinity of the hurricane eye wall at low elevations. A Fourier analysis of the Velocity-Azimuthal Display (VAD) provides estimates of divergence (0th harmonic), wind speed and direction (1st harmonic), and deformation (2nd harmonic). A residual velocity field is obtained by subtracting the mean VAD velocity from the radial Doppler velocity for elevation angles between 0.5 and 5.5 degrees. The wavelength, length, depth, magnitude, and motion of velocity anomalies are then compiled from the residual velocity displays. The resulting statistics suggest the presence of organized secondary circulations or boundary layer (BL) rolls in the marine boundary layer of the hurricanes. To date, three storms have been examined: Fran (1996), Bonnie (1998), and Georges (1998) using WSR-88D data from Wilmington, N.C.; Morehead City, N.C.; and Key West, FL, respectively. The analysis focuses on the period between the time the first BL roll is identified and hurricane landfall. The number of BL rolls tracked in Bonnie, Fran, and Georges was 44, 56, and 24, respectively. BL rolls were less frequent in Georges, and the magnitude of the velocity anomalies was less than those in Fran and Bonnie. The average low-level (800 m--50 m) shear in Georges was substantially less than in the other storms, likely contributing to the fewer number of rolls identified and a lower intensity of the rolls. The wavelength of the observed BL rolls is about twice the horizontal distance between adjacent positive and negative velocity anomalies. Georges had the largest average wavelength (˜1400 m), followed by Fran (˜1320 m) and Bonnie (˜1200 m). The gradient between adjacent positive and negative anomalies corresponds to a horizontal wind shear of ˜14 m s-1 over 660 m, and a vertical shear component of vorticity of 2.0×10-2 s-1. Momentum fluxes associated with the secondary circulations are estimated with reference to mixing length theory. Estimates of the surface stress are obtained from the radar derived wind profiles using a modified momentum budget approach. The impact of secondary circulations on the magnitude of the surface stress in the hurricane eye wall will be discussed and contrasted with other approaches for estimating the stress.

Simulations of Hurricane Nadine (2012) during HS3 Using the NASA Unified WRF with Aerosol-Cloud Microphysics-Radiation Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, J. J.; Braun, S. A.; Sippel, J. A.; Tao, W. K.; Tao, Z.

2014-12-01

The impact of the SAL on the development and intensification of hurricanes has garnered significant attention in recent years. Many past studies have shown that synoptic outbreaks of Saharan dust, which usually occur from late spring to early fall and can extend from western Africa across the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean, can have impacts on hurricane genesis and subsequent intensity change. The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission is a multiyear NASA field campaign with the goal of improving understanding of hurricane formation and intensity change. One of HS3's primary science goals is to obtain measurements to help determine the extent to which the Saharan air layer impacts storm intensification. HS3 uses two of NASA's unmanned Global Hawk aircrafts equipped with three instruments each to measure characteristics of the storm environment and inner core. The Goddard microphysics and longwave/shortwave schemes in the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model have been coupled in real-time with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model in WRF-Chem to account for the direct (radiation) and indirect (microphysics) impact. NU-WRF with interactive aerosol-cloud-radiation physics is used to generate 30-member ensemble simulations of Nadine (2012) with and without the aerosol interactions. Preliminary conclusions related to the impact of the SAL on the evolution of Nadine from the HS3 observations and model output will be described.

Alternative Stable States, Coral Reefs, and Smooth Dynamics with a Kick.

PubMed

Ippolito, Stephen; Naudot, Vincent; Noonburg, Erik G

2016-03-01

We consider a computer simulation, which was found to be faithful to time series data for Caribbean coral reefs, and an analytical model to help understand the dynamics of the simulation. The analytical model is a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE), and the authors claim this model demonstrates the existence of alternative stable states. The existence of an alternative stable state should consider a sudden shift in coral and macroalgae populations, while the grazing rate remains constant. The results of such shifts, however, are often confounded by changes in grazing rate. Although the ODE suggest alternative stable states, the ODE need modification to explicitly account for shifts or discrete events such as hurricanes. The goal of this paper will be to study the simulation dynamics through a simplified analytical representation. We proceed by modifying the original analytical model through incorporating discrete changes into the ODE. We then analyze the resulting dynamics and their bifurcations with respect to changes in grazing rate and hurricane frequency. In particular, a "kick" enabling the ODE to consider impulse events is added. Beyond adding a "kick" we employ the grazing function that is suggested by the simulation. The extended model was fit to the simulation data to support its use and predicts the existence cycles depending nonlinearly on grazing rates and hurricane frequency. These cycles may bring new insights into consideration for reef health, restoration and dynamics.

Air-Sea Enthalpy and Momentum Exchange at Major Hurricane Wind Speeds

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

momentum fluxes. Hurricane simulations using the Navy Coupled Ocean / Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System are also sensitive to the surface flux and sea... Atmospheric Research NWP Numerical Weather Prediction NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration PTH Pressure, Temperature, relative Humidity RE87... Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for organizing the CBLAST field program and collecting the data used for this study. xx THIS PAGE

Modeling forest disturbance and recovery in secondary subtropical dry forests of Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, J. A.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Van Bloem, S. J.

2015-12-01

Because of human pressures, the need to understand and predict the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests is urgent. Through modifications to the ZELIG vegetation demographic model, including the development of species- and site-specific parameters and internal modifications, the capability to predict forest change within the Guanica State Forest in Puerto Rico can now be accomplished. One objective was to test the capability of this new model (i.e. ZELIG-TROP) to predict successional patterns of secondary forests across a gradient of abandoned fields currently being reclaimed as forests. Model simulations found that abandoned fields that are on degraded lands have a delayed response to fully recover and reach a mature forest status during the simulated time period; 200 years. The forest recovery trends matched predictions published in other studies, such that attributes involving early resource acquisition (i.e. canopy height, canopy coverage, density) were the fastest to recover, but attributes used for structural development (i.e. biomass, basal area) were relatively slow in recovery. Biomass and basal area, two attributes that tend to increase during later successional stages, are significantly lower during the first 80-100 years of recovery compared to a mature forest, suggesting that the time scale of resilience in subtropical dry forests needs to be partially redefined. A second objective was to investigate the long and short-term effects of increasing hurricane disturbances on vegetation structure and dynamics, due to hurricanes playing an important role in maintaining dry forest structure in Puerto Rico. Hurricane disturbance simulations within ZELIG-TROP predicted that increasing hurricane intensity (i.e. up to 100% increase) did not lead to a large shift in long-term AGB or NPP. However, increased hurricane frequency did lead to a 5-40% decrease in AGB, and 32-50% increase in NPP, depending on the treatment. In addition, the modeling approach used here was able to track changes in litterfall, coarse woody debris, and other forest carbon components under various hurricane regimes, a critical step for understanding the future state of subtropical dry forests.

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge, sea-level rise, and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks can be potentially exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise in the northern Gulf coast. An unstructured-grid Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the Gulf of Mexico.more » Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase of semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a parameter “change of inundation depth” through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.« less

Using a Geographic Information System to Assess the Risk of Hurricane Hazards on the Maya Civilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Sever, T.

2014-12-01

The extent of the Maya civilization spanned across portions of modern day Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Paleoclimatic studies suggest this region has been affected by strong hurricanes for the past six thousand years, reinforced by archeological evidence from Mayan records indicating they experienced strong storms. It is theorized hurricanes aided in the collapse of the Maya, damaging building structures, agriculture, and ceasing industry activities. Today, this region is known for its active tropical climatology, being hit by numerous strong storms including Hurricane Dean, Iris, Keith, and Mitch. This research uses a geographic information system (GIS) to model hurricane hazards, and assess the risk posed on the Maya civilization. GIS has the ability to handle various layer components making it optimal for combining parameters necessary for assessing the risk of experiencing hurricane related hazards. For this analysis, high winds, storm surge flooding, non-storm surge related flooding, and rainfall triggered landslides were selected as the primary hurricane hazards. Data sets used in this analysis include the National Climatic Data Center International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardships (IBTrACS) hurricane tracks, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model, WorldClim monthly accumulated precipitation, USGS HydroSHEDS river locations, Harmonized World Soil Database soil types, and known Maya site locations from the Electronic Atlas of Ancient Maya Sites. ArcGIS and ENVI software were utilized to process data and model hurricane hazards. To assess locations at risk of experiencing high winds, a model was created using ArcGIS Model Builder to map each storm's temporal wind profile, and adapted to simulate forward storm velocity, and storm frequency. Modeled results were then combined with physical land characteristics, meteorological, and hydrologic data to identify areas likely affected. Certain areas along the eastern edge of the Yucatan peninsula were found to be more prone to experiencing wind and flood related hurricane hazards. Novel methodologies developed from this analysis can be adapted for further hurricane risk assessment on archeological sites.

A Prototype Nonhydrostatic Regional-to-Global Nested-Grid Atmosphere Model for Medium-range Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, L.; Lin, S. J.; Zhou, L.; Chen, J. H.; Benson, R.; Rees, S.

2016-12-01

Limited-area convection-permitting models have proven useful for short-range NWP, but are unable to interact with the larger scales needed for longer lead-time skill. A new global forecast model, fvGFS, has been designed combining a modern nonhydrostatic dynamical core, the GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere dynamical core (FV3) with operational GFS physics and initial conditions, and has been shown to provide excellent global skill while improving representation of small-scale phenomena. The nested-grid capability of FV3 allows us to build a regional-to-global variable-resolution model to efficiently refine to 3-km grid spacing over the Continental US. The use of two-way grid nesting allows us to reach these resolutions very efficiently, with the operational requirement easily attainable on current supercomputing systems.Even without a boundary-layer or advanced microphysical scheme appropriate for convection-perrmitting resolutions, the effectiveness of fvGFS can be demonstrated for a variety of weather events. We demonstrate successful proof-of-concept simulations of a variety of phenomena. We show the capability to develop intense hurricanes with realistic fine-scale eyewalls and rainbands. The new model also produces skillful predictions of severe weather outbreaks and of organized mesoscale convective systems. Fine-scale orographic and boundary-layer phenomena are also simulated with excellent fidelity by fvGFS. Further expected improvements are discussed, including the introduction of more sophisticated microphysics and of scale-aware convection schemes.

African Easterly Waves in 30-day High-Resolution Global Simulations: A Case Study During the 2006 NAMMA Period

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Bo-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wu, Man-Li C.

2010-01-01

In this study, extended -range (30 -day) high-resolution simulations with the NASA global mesoscale model are conducted to simulate the initiation and propagation of six consecutive African easterly waves (AEWs) from late August to September 2006 and their association with hurricane formation. It is shown that the statistical characteristics of individual AEWs are realistically simulated with larger errors in the 5th and 6th AEWs. Remarkable simulations of a mean African easterly jet (AEJ) are also obtained. Nine additional 30 -day experiments suggest that although land surface processes might contribute to the predictability of the AEJ and AEWs, the initiation and detailed evolution of AEWs still depend on the accurate representation of dynamic and land surface initial conditions and their time -varying nonlinear interactions. Of interest is the potential to extend the lead time for predicting hurricane formation (e.g., a lead time of up to 22 days) as the 4th AEW is realistically simulated.

The sinking of the El Faro: predicting real world rogue waves during Hurricane Joaquin.

PubMed

Fedele, Francesco; Lugni, Claudio; Chawla, Arun

2017-09-11

We present a study on the prediction of rogue waves during the 1-hour sea state of Hurricane Joaquin when the Merchant Vessel El Faro sank east of the Bahamas on October 1, 2015. High-resolution hindcast of hurricane-generated sea states and wave simulations are combined with novel probabilistic models to quantify the likelihood of rogue wave conditions. The data suggests that the El Faro vessel was drifting at an average speed of approximately 2.5 m/s prior to its sinking. As a result, we estimated that the probability that El Faro encounters a rogue wave whose crest height exceeds 14 meters while drifting over a time interval of 10 (50) minutes is ~1/400 (1/130). The largest simulated wave is generated by the constructive interference of elementary spectral components (linear dispersive focusing) enhanced by bound nonlinearities. Not surprisingly then, its characteristics are quite similar to those displayed by the Andrea, Draupner and Killard rogue waves.

Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones

PubMed Central

Glenn, S. M.; Miles, T. N.; Seroka, G. N.; Xu, Y.; Forney, R. K.; Yu, F.; Roarty, H.; Schofield, O.; Kohut, J.

2016-01-01

Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward. PMID:26953963

The effect of wave current interactions on the storm surge and inundation in Charleston Harbor during Hurricane Hugo 1989

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Lian; Liu, Huiqing; Peng, Machuan

The effects of wave-current interactions on the storm surge and inundation induced by Hurricane Hugo in and around the Charleston Harbor and its adjacent coastal regions are examined by using a three-dimensional (3-D) wave-current coupled modeling system. The 3-D storm surge and inundation modeling component of the coupled system is based on the Princeton ocean model (POM), whereas the wave modeling component is based on the third-generation wave model, simulating waves nearshore (SWAN). The results indicate that the effects of wave-induced surface, bottom, and radiation stresses can separately or in combination produce significant changes in storm surge and inundation. The effects of waves vary spatially. In some areas, the contribution of waves to peak storm surge during Hurricane Hugo reached as high as 0.76 m which led to substantial changes in the inundation and drying areas simulated by the storm surge model.

The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Intensity and Track of Hurricane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W. K.; Shi, J. J.; Chen, S. S.; Lang, S.; Lin, P.; Hong, S. Y.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Hou, A.

2010-01-01

During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [e.g. Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with a 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. The WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation system that has incorporated a modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numeric and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. The WRF model can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options. At Goddard, four different cloud microphysics schemes (warm rain only, two-class of ice, two three-class of ice with either graupel or hail) are implemented into the WRF. The performances of these schemes have been compared to those from other WRF microphysics scheme options for an Atlantic hurricane case. In addition, a brief review and comparison on the previous modeling studies on the impact of microphysics schemes and microphysical processes on intensity and track of hurricane will be presented. Generally, almost all modeling studies found that the microphysics schemes did not have major impacts on track forecast, but did have more effect on the intensity. All modeling studies found that the simulated hurricane has rapid deepening and/or intensification for the warm rain-only case. It is because all hydrometeors were very large raindrops, and they fell out quickly at and near the eye-wall region. This would hydrostatically produce the lowest pressure. In addition, these modeling studies suggested that the simulated hurricane becomes unrealistically strong by removing the evaporative cooling of cloud droplets and melting of ice particles. This is due to the much weaker downdraft simulated. However, there are many differences between different modeling studies and these differences were identified and discussed.

Dynamic simulation as an approach to understanding hurricane risk response: insights from the Stormview lab.

PubMed

Meyer, Robert; Broad, Kenneth; Orlove, Ben; Petrovic, Nada

2013-08-01

This article investigates the use of dynamic laboratory simulations as a tool for studying decisions to prepare for hurricane threats. A prototype web-based simulation named Stormview is described that allows individuals to experience the approach of a hurricane in a computer-based environment. In Stormview participants can gather storm information through various media, hear the opinions of neighbors, and indicate intentions to take protective action. We illustrate how the ability to exert experimental control over the information viewed by participants can be used to provide insights into decision making that would be difficult to gain from field studies, such as how preparedness decisions are affected by the nature of news coverage of prior storms, how a storm's movement is depicted in graphics, and the content of word-of-mouth communications. Data from an initial application involving a sample of Florida residents reveal a number of unexpected findings about hurricane risk response. Participants who viewed forecast graphics, which contained track lines depicting the most likely path of the storm, for example, had higher levels of preparation than those who saw graphics that showed only uncertainty cones-even among those living far from the predicted center path. Similarly, the participants who were most likely to express worry about an approaching storm and fastest to undertake preparatory action were those who, ironically, had never experienced one. Finally, external validity is evidenced by a close rank-order correspondence between patterns of information use revealed in the lab and that found in previous cross-sectional field studies. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Impact of Assimilation of GPM Clear Sky Radiance on HWRF Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, C. L.; Pu, Z.

2016-12-01

The impact of GPM microwave imager (GMI) clear sky radiances on hurricane forecasting is examined by ingesting GMI level 1C recalibrated brightness temperature into the NCEP Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)- based ensemble-variational hybrid data assimilation system for the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) system. The GMI clear sky radiances are compared with the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) simulated radiances to closely study the quality of the radiance observations. The quality check result indicates the presence of bias in various channels. A static bias correction scheme, in which the appropriate bias correction coefficients for GMI data is evaluated by applying regression method on a sufficiently large sample of data representative to the observational bias in the regions of concern, is used to correct the observational bias in GMI clear sky radiances. Forecast results with and without assimilation of GMI radiance are compared using hurricane cases from recent hurricane seasons (e.g., Hurricane Joaquin in 2015). Diagnoses of data assimilation results show that the bias correction coefficients obtained from the regression method can correct the inherent biases in GMI radiance data, significantly reducing observational residuals. The removal of biases also allows more data to pass GSI quality control and hence to be assimilated into the model. Forecast results for hurricane Joaquin demonstrates that the quality of analysis from the data assimilation is sensitive to the bias correction, with positive impacts on the hurricane track forecast when systematic biases are removed from the radiance data. Details will be presented at the symposium.

Modeling and simulation of storm surge on Staten Island to understand inundation mitigation strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kress, Michael E.; Benimoff, Alan I.; Fritz, William J.; Thatcher, Cindy A.; Blanton, Brian O.; Dzedzits, Eugene

2016-01-01

Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29, 2012, near Brigantine, New Jersey, and had a transformative impact on Staten Island and the New York Metropolitan area. Of the 43 New York City fatalities, 23 occurred on Staten Island. The borough, with a population of approximately 500,000, experienced some of the most devastating impacts of the storm. Since Hurricane Sandy, protective dunes have been constructed on the southeast shore of Staten Island. ADCIRC+SWAN model simulations run on The City University of New York's Cray XE6M, housed at the College of Staten Island, using updated topographic data show that the coast of Staten Island is still susceptible to tidal surge similar to those generated by Hurricane Sandy. Sandy hindcast simulations of storm surges focusing on Staten Island are in good agreement with observed storm tide measurements. Model results calculated from fine-scaled and coarse-scaled computational grids demonstrate that finer grids better resolve small differences in the topography of critical hydraulic control structures, which affect storm surge inundation levels. The storm surge simulations, based on post-storm topography obtained from high-resolution lidar, provide much-needed information to understand Staten Island's changing vulnerability to storm surge inundation. The results of fine-scale storm surge simulations can be used to inform efforts to improve resiliency to future storms. For example, protective barriers contain planned gaps in the dunes to provide for beach access that may inadvertently increase the vulnerability of the area.

Development and applications of a Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, J. C.; Armstrong, B. N.; He, R.; Zambon, J. B.; Olabarrieta, M.; Voulgaris, G.; Kumar, N.; Haas, K. A.

2012-12-01

Understanding processes responsible for coastal change is important for managing both our natural and economic coastal resources. Coastal processes respond from both local scale and larger regional scale forcings. Understanding these processes can lead to significant insight into how the coastal zone evolves. Storms are one of the primary driving forces causing coastal change from a coupling of wave and wind driven flows. Here we utilize a numerical modeling approach to investigate these dynamics of coastal storm impacts. We use the Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere - Wave - Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System that utilizes the Model Coupling Toolkit to exchange prognostic variables between the ocean model ROMS, atmosphere model WRF, wave model SWAN, and the Community Sediment Transport Modeling System (CSTMS) sediment routines. The models exchange fields of sea-surface temperature, ocean currents, water levels, bathymetry, wave heights, lengths, periods, bottom orbital velocities, and atmospheric surface heat and momentum fluxes, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, and evaporation. Data fields are exchanged using regridded flux conservative sparse matrix interpolation weights computed from the SCRIP spherical coordinate remapping interpolation package. We describe the modeling components and the model field exchange methods. As part of the system, the wave and ocean models run with cascading, refined, spatial grids to provide increased resolution, scaling down to resolve nearshore wave driven flows simulated by the vortex force formulation, all within selected regions of a larger, coarser-scale coastal modeling system. The ocean and wave models are driven by the atmospheric component, which is affected by wave dependent ocean-surface roughness and sea surface temperature which modify the heat and momentum fluxes at the ocean-atmosphere interface. We describe the application of the modeling system to several regions of multi-scale complexity to identify the significance of larger scale forcing cascading down to smaller scales and to investigate the interactions of the coupled system with increasing degree of model-model interactions. Three examples include the impact of Hurricane Ivan in 2004 in the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Ida in 2009 that evolved into a tropical storm on the US East coast, and passage of strong cold fronts across the US southeast. Results identify that hurricane intensity is extremely sensitive to sea-surface temperature, with a reduction in intensity when the atmosphere is coupled to the ocean model due to rapid cooling of the ocean from the surface through the mixed layer. Coupling of the ocean to the atmosphere also results in decreased boundary layer stress and coupling of the waves to the atmosphere results in increased sea-surface stress. Wave results are sensitive to both ocean and atmospheric coupling due to wave-current interactions with the ocean and wave-growth from the atmospheric wind stress. Sediment resuspension at regional scale during the hurricane is controlled by shelf width and wave propagation during hurricane approach. Results from simulation of passage of cold fronts suggest that synoptic meteorological systems can strongly impact surf zone and inner shelf response, therefore act as a strong driver for long term littoral sediment transport. We will also present some of the challenges faced to develop the modeling system.

Hurricanes accelerated the Florida-Bahamas lionfish invasion.

PubMed

Johnston, Matthew W; Purkis, Sam J

2015-06-01

In this study, we demonstrate how perturbations to the Florida Current caused by hurricanes are relevant to the spread of invasive lionfish from Florida to the Bahamas. Without such perturbations, this current represents a potential barrier to the transport of planktonic lionfish eggs and larvae across the Straits of Florida. We further show that once lionfish became established in the Bahamas, hurricanes significantly hastened their spread through the island chain. We gain these insights through: (1) an analysis of the direction and velocity of simulated ocean currents during the passage of hurricanes through the Florida Straits and (2) the development of a biophysical model that incorporates the tolerances of lionfish to ocean climate, their reproductive strategy, and duration that the larvae remain viable in the water column. On the basis of this work, we identify 23 occasions between the years 1992 and 2006 in which lionfish were provided the opportunity to breach the Florida Current. We also find that hurricanes during this period increased the rate of spread of lionfish through the Bahamas by more than 45% and magnified its population by at least 15%. Beyond invasive lionfish, we suggest that extreme weather events such as hurricanes likely help to homogenize the gene pool for all Caribbean marine species susceptible to transport. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sea spray contributions to the air-sea fluxes at moderate and hurricane wind speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, J. A.; Veron, F.

2009-12-01

At sufficiently high wind speed conditions, the surface of the ocean separates to form a substantial number of sea spray drops, which can account for a significant fraction of the total air-sea surface area and thus make important contributions to the aggregate air-sea momentum, heat and mass fluxes. Although consensus around the qualitative impacts of these drops has been building in recent years, the quantification of their impacts has remained elusive. Ultimately, the spray-mediated fluxes depend on three controlling factors: the number and size of drops formed at the surface, the duration of suspension within the atmospheric marine boundary layer, and the rate of momentum, heat and mass transfer between the drops and the atmosphere. While the latter factor can be estimated from an established, physically-based theory, the estimates for the former two are not well established. Using a recent, physically-based model of the sea spray source function along with the results from Lagrangian stochastic simulations of individual drops, we estimate the aggregate spray-mediated fluxes, finding reasonable agreement with existing models and estimates within the empirical range of wind speed conditions. At high wind speed conditions that are outside the empirical range, however, we find somewhat lower spray-mediated fluxes than previously reported in the literature, raising new questions about the relative air-sea fluxes at high wind speeds as well as the development and sustainment of hurricanes.

Integration of coastal inundation modeling from storm tides to individual waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ning; Roeber, Volker; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Heitmann, Troy W.; Bai, Yefei; Cheung, Kwok Fai

2014-11-01

Modeling of storm-induced coastal inundation has primarily focused on the surge generated by atmospheric pressure and surface winds with phase-averaged effects of the waves as setup. Through an interoperable model package, we investigate the role of phase-resolving wave processes in simulation of coastal flood hazards. A spectral ocean wave model describes generation and propagation of storm waves from deep to intermediate water, while a non-hydrostatic storm-tide model has the option to couple with a spectral coastal wave model for computation of phase-averaged processes in a near-shore region. The ocean wave and storm-tide models can alternatively provide the wave spectrum and the surface elevation as the boundary and initial conditions for a nested Boussinesq model. Additional surface-gradient terms in the Boussinesq equations maintain the quasi-steady, non-uniform storm tide for modeling of phase-resolving surf and swash-zone processes as well as combined tide, surge, and wave inundation. The two nesting schemes are demonstrated through a case study of Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on the Hawaiian Island of Kauai in 1992. With input from a parametric hurricane model and global reanalysis and tidal datasets, the two approaches produce comparable significant wave heights and phase-averaged surface elevations in the surf zone. The nesting of the Boussinesq model provides a seamless approach to augment the inundation due to the individual waves in matching the recorded debris line along the coast.

A numerical study on hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation in Charleston Harbor, South Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Machuan; Xie, Lian; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.

2006-08-01

A storm surge and inundation model is configured in Charleston Harbor and its adjacent coastal region to study the harbor's response to hurricanes. The hydrodynamic component of the modeling system is based on the Princeton Ocean Model, and a scheme with multiple inundation speed options is imbedded in the model for the inundation calculation. Historic observations (Hurricane Hugo and its related storm surge and inundation) in the Charleston Harbor region indicate that among three possible inundation speeds in the model, taking Ct (gd)1/2 (Ct is a terrain-related parameter) as the inundation speed is the best choice. Choosing a different inundation speed in the model has effects not only on inundation area but also on storm surge height. A nesting technique is necessary for the model system to capture the mesoscale feature of a hurricane and meanwhile to maintain a higher horizontal resolution in the harbor region, where details of the storm surge and inundation are required. Hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation are very sensitive to storm tracks. Twelve hurricanes with different tracks are simulated to investigate how Charleston Harbor might respond to tracks that are parallel or perpendicular to the coastline or landfall at Charleston at different angles. Experiments show that large differences of storm surge and inundation may have occurred if Hurricane Hugo had approached Charleston Harbor with a slightly different angle. A hurricane's central pressure, radius of maximum wind, and translation speed have their own complicated effects on surge and inundation when the hurricane approaches the coast on different tracks. Systematic experiments are performed in order to illustrate how each of such factors, or a combination of them, may affect the storm surge height and inundation area in the Charleston Harbor region. Finally, suggestions are given on how this numerical model system may be used for hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation forecasting.

The 0.125 degree finite-volume General Circulation Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer: Preliminary Simulations of Mesoscale Vortices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, B.-W.; Atlas, R.; Chern, J.-D.; Reale, O.; Lin, S.-J.; Lee, T.; Chang, J.

2005-01-01

The NASA Columbia supercomputer was ranked second on the TOP500 List in November, 2004. Such a quantum jump in computing power provides unprecedented opportunities to conduct ultra-high resolution simulations with the finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM). During 2004, the model was run in realtime experimentally at 0.25 degree resolution producing remarkable hurricane forecasts [Atlas et al., 2005]. In 2005, the horizontal resolution was further doubled, which makes the fvGCM comparable to the first mesoscale resolving General Circulation Model at the Earth Simulator Center [Ohfuchi et al., 2004]. Nine 5-day 0.125 degree simulations of three hurricanes in 2004 are presented first for model validation. Then it is shown how the model can simulate the formation of the Catalina eddies and Hawaiian lee vortices, which are generated by the interaction of the synoptic-scale flow with surface forcing, and have never been reproduced in a GCM before.)

Probabilistic Mapping of Storm-induced Coastal Inundation for Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, N.; Yamazaki, Y.; Roeber, V.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.

2016-02-01

Global warming is posing an imminent threat to coastal communities worldwide. Under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, we utilize hurricane events downscaled from a CMIP5 global climate model using the stochastic-deterministic method of Emanuel (2013, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.) in a pilot study to develop an inundation map with projected sea-level rise for the urban Honolulu coast. The downscaling is performed for a 20-year period from 2081 to 2100 to capture the ENSO, which strongly influences the hurricane activity in the Pacific. A total of 50 simulations provide a quasi-stationary dataset of 1000 years for probabilistic analysis of the flood hazards toward the end of the century. We utilize the meta-model Hakou, which is based on precomputed hurricane scenarios using ADCIRC, SWAN, and a 1D Boussinesq model (Kennedy et al., 2012, Ocean Modelling), to estimate the annual maximum inundation along the project coastline at the present sea level. Screening of the preliminary results identifies the most severe three events for detailed inundation modeling using the package of Li et al. (2014, Ocean Modelling) at the projected sea level. For each event, the third generation spectral model WAVEWATCH III of Tolman (2008, Ocean Modelling) provides the hurricane waves and the circulation model NEOWAVE of Yamazaki et al. (2009, 2011, Int. J. Num. Meth. Fluids) computes the surge using a system of telescopic nested grids from the open ocean to the project coastline. The output defines the boundary conditions and initial still-water elevation for computation of phase-resolving surf-zone and inundation processes using the 2D Boussinesq model of Roeber and Cheung (2012, Coastal Engineering). Each computed inundation event corresponds to an annual maximum, and with 1000 years of data, has an occurrence probability of 0.1% in a given year. Barring the tail of the distribution, aggregation of the three computed events allow delineation of the inundation zone with annual exceedance probability equal to or greater than 0.2% (equivalent to a 500-year return period). An immediate application is to assess the inventory of buildings and structures in Honolulu that would be exposed to increased flood risks due to climate change and identify potential revisions to the building code as part of the adaptation process.

Offshore Wind Turbines Subjected to Hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amirinia, Gholamreza

Hurricane Andrew (1992) caused one of the largest property losses in U.S. history, but limited availability of surface wind measurements hindered the advancement of wind engineering research. Many studies have been conducted on regular boundary layer winds (non-hurricane winds) and their effects on the structures. In this case, their results were used in the standards and codes; however, hurricane winds and their effects on the structures still need more studies and observations. Analysis of hurricane surface winds revealed that turbulence spectrum of hurricane winds differs from that of non-hurricane surface winds. Vertical profile of wind velocity and turbulence intensity are also important for determining the wind loads on high-rise structures. Vertical profile of hurricane winds is affected by different parameters such as terrain or surface roughness. Recent studies show that wind velocity profile and turbulence intensity of hurricane winds may be different from those used in the design codes. Most of the studies and available models for analyzing wind turbines subjected to high-winds neglect unsteady aerodynamic forces on a parked wind tower. Since the blade pitch angle in a parked wind turbine is usually about 90°, the drag coefficient on blade airfoils are very small therefore the along-wind aerodynamic forces on the blades are smaller than those on the tower. Hence, the tower in parked condition plays an important role in along-wind responses of the wind turbine. The objectives of this study are, first, to explore the nature of the hurricane surface winds. Next, to establish a time domain procedure for addressing structure-wind-wave-soil interactions. Third, investigating the behavior of wind turbines subjected to hurricane loads resulted form hurricane nature and, lastly, to investigate reconfiguration of turbine structure to reduce wind forces. In order to achieve these objective, first, recent observations on hurricane turbulence models were discussed. Then a new formulation for addressing unsteady wind forces on the tower was introduced and NREL-FAST package was modified with the new formulation. Interaction of wind-wave-soil-structure was also included in the modification. After customizing the package, the tower and blade buffeting responses, the low cycle fatigue during different hurricane categories, and extreme value of the short-term responses were analyzed. In the second part, piezoelectric materials were used to generate perturbations on the surface of a specimen in the wind tunnel. This perturbation was used to combine upward wall motion and surface curvature. For this purpose, a Macro Fiber Composite (MFC) material was mounted on the surface of a cylindrical specimen for generating perturbation in the wind tunnel. Four different perturbation frequencies (1 Hz, 2 Hz, 3 Hz, and 4Hz) as well as the baseline specimen were tested in a low-speed wind tunnel (Re= 2.8x104). Results showed that recently observed turbulence models resulted in larger structural responses and low-cycle fatigue damage than existing models. In addition, extreme value analysis of the short-term results showed that the IEC 61400-3 recommendation for wind turbine class I was sufficient for designing the tower for wind turbine class S subjected to hurricane; however, for designing the blade, IEC 61400-3 recommendations for class I underestimated the responses. In addition, wind tunnel testing results showed that the perturbation of the surface of the specimen increased the turbulence in the leeward in specific distance from the specimen. The surface perturbation technique had potential to reduce the drag by 4.8%.

Observations and operational model simulations reveal the impact of Hurricane Matthew (2016) on the Gulf Stream and coastal sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezer, Tal; Atkinson, Larry P.; Tuleya, Robert

2017-12-01

In October 7-9, 2016, Hurricane Matthew moved along the southeastern coast of the U.S., causing major flooding and significant damage, even to locations farther north well away from the storm's winds. Various observations, such as tide gauge data, cable measurements of the Florida Current (FC) transport, satellite altimeter data and high-frequency radar data, were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the storm. The data show a dramatic decline in the FC flow and increased coastal sea level along the U.S. coast. Weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) downstream from the storm's area contributed to high coastal sea levels farther north. Analyses of simulations of an operational hurricane-ocean coupled model reveal the disruption that the hurricane caused to the GS flow, including a decline in transport of ∼20 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1). In comparison, the observed FC reached a maximum transport of ∼40 Sv before the storm on September 10 and a minimum of ∼20 Sv after the storm on October 12. The hurricane impacts both the geostrophic part of the GS and the wind-driven currents, generating inertial oscillations with velocities of up to ±1 m s-1. Analysis of the observed FC transport since 1982 indicated that the magnitude of the current weakening in October 2016 was quite rare (outside 3 standard deviations from the mean). Such a large FC weakening in the past occurred more often in October and November, but is extremely rare in June-August. Similar impacts on the FC from past tropical storms and hurricanes suggest that storms may contribute to seasonal and interannual variations in the FC. The results also demonstrated the extended range of coastal impacts that remote storms can cause through their influence on ocean currents.

Numerical computation of hurricane effects on historic coastal hydrology in Southern Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, Eric D.; Krohn, M. Dennis; Langtimm, Catherine A.

2015-01-01

The hindcast simulation estimated hydrologic processes for the 1926 to 1932 period. It shows promise as a simulator in long-term ecological studies to test hypotheses based on theoretical or empirical-based studies at larger landscape scales.

The Importance of Hurricane Research to Life, Property, the Economy, and National Security.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busalacchi, A. J.

2017-12-01

The devastating 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has brought into stark relief how much hurricane forecasts have improved - and how important it is to make them even better. Whereas the error in 48-hour track forecasts has been reduced by more than half, according to the National Hurricane Center, intensity forecasts remain challenging, especially with storms such as Harvey that strengthened from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane in less than three days. The unusually active season, with Hurricane Irma sustaining 185-mph winds for a record 36 hours and two Atlantic hurricanes reaching 150-mph winds simultaneously for the first time, also highlighted what we do, and do not, know about how tropical cyclones will change as the climate warms. The extraordinary toll of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria - which may ultimately be responsible for hundreds of deaths and an estimated $200 billion or more in damages - underscores why investments into improved forecasting must be a national priority. At NCAR and UCAR, scientists are working with their colleagues at federal agencies, the private sector, and the university community to advance our understanding of these deadly storms. Among their many projects, NCAR researchers are making experimental tropical cyclone forecasts using an innovative Earth system model that allows for variable resolution. We are working with NOAA to issue flooding, inundation, and streamflow forecasts for areas hit by hurricanes, and we have used extremely high-resolution regional models to simulate successfully the rapid hurricane intensification that has proved so difficult to predict. We are assessing ways to better predict the damage potential of tropical cyclones by looking beyond wind speed to consider such important factors as the size and forward motion of the storm. On the important question of climate change, scientists have experimented with running coupled climate models at a high enough resolution to spin up a hurricane, and we have used a convection-permitting regional model to examine how named storms of the past might look if they were to formed in a warmer, wetter future. Finally, research is also being performed to better communicate forecasts to help residents make informed choices when a damaging storm approaches.

NOAA HRD's HEDAS Data Assimilation System's performance for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellwood, K.; Aksoy, A.; Vukicevic, T.; Lorsolo, S.

2010-12-01

The Hurricane Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS) was developed at the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) of NOAA, in conjunction with an experimental version of the Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast model (HWRFx), in an effort to improve the initial representation of the hurricane vortex by utilizing high resolution in-situ data collected during NOAA’s Hurricane Field Program. HEDAS implements the “ensemble square root “ filter of Whitaker and Hamill (2002) using a 30 member ensemble obtained from NOAA/ESRL’s ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) system and the assimilation is performed on a 3-km nest centered on the hurricane vortex. As part of NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), HEDAS will be run in a semi-operational mode for the first time during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season and will assimilate airborne Doppler radar winds, dropwindsonde and flight level wind, temperature, pressure and relative humidity, and Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer surface wind observations as they become available. HEDAS has been implemented in an experimental mode for the cases of Hurricane Bill, 2009 and Paloma, 2008 to confirm functionality and determine the optimal configuration of the system. This test case demonstrates the importance of assimilating thermodynamic data in addition to wind observations and the benefit of increasing the quantity and distribution of observations. Applying HEDAS to a larger sample of storm forecasts would provide further insight into the behavior of the model when inner core aircraft observations are assimilated. The main focus of this talk will be to present a summary of HEDAS performance in the HWRFx model for the inaugural season. The HEDAS analyses and the resulting HWRFx forecasts will be compared with HWRFx analyses and forecasts produced concurrently using the HRD modeling group’s vortex initialization which does not employ data assimilation. The initial vortex and subsequent forecasts will be evaluated based on the thermodynamic structure, wind field, track and intensity. Related HEDAS research to be presented by HRD’s data assimilation group include evaluations of the geostrophic wind balance and covariance structures for the Bill experiments, and Observation System Simulation experiments (OSSEs) for the case of hurricane Paloma using both model generated and real observations.

The Value of Wetlands in Protecting Southeast Louisiana from Hurricane Storm Surges

PubMed Central

Barbier, Edward B.; Georgiou, Ioannis Y.; Enchelmeyer, Brian; Reed, Denise J.

2013-01-01

The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively. PMID:23536815

The value of wetlands in protecting southeast louisiana from hurricane storm surges.

PubMed

Barbier, Edward B; Georgiou, Ioannis Y; Enchelmeyer, Brian; Reed, Denise J

2013-01-01

The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively.

Large-scale Vertical Motions, Intensity Change and Precipitation Associated with Land falling Hurricane Katrina over the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, S. R.; Kwembe, T.; Zhang, Z.

2016-12-01

We investigated the possible relationship between the large- scale heat fluxes and intensity change associated with the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. After reaching the category 5 intensity on August 28th , 2005 over the central Gulf of Mexico, Katrina weekend to category 3 before making landfall (August 29th , 2005) on the Louisiana coast with the maximum sustained winds of over 110 knots. We also examined the vertical motions associated with the intensity change of the hurricane. The data for Convective Available Potential Energy for water vapor (CAPE), sea level pressure and wind speed were obtained from the Atmospheric Soundings, and NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC), respectively for the period August 24 to September 3, 2005. We also computed vertical motions using CAPE values. The study showed that the large-scale heat fluxes reached maximum (7960W/m2) with the central pressure 905mb. The Convective Available Potential Energy and the vertical motions peaked 3-5 days before landfall. The large atmospheric vertical motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorm, tornadoes, storm surge and floods Numerical model (WRF/ARW) with data assimilations have been used for this research to investigate the model's performances on hurricane tracks and intensities associated with the hurricane Katrina, which began to strengthen until reaching Category 5 on 28 August 2005. The model was run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 hr periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model output was compared with the observations and is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track associated with hurricane Katrina.

Spatial structure of directional wave spectra in hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esquivel-Trava, Bernardo; Ocampo-Torres, Francisco J.; Osuna, Pedro

2015-01-01

The spatial structure of the wave field during hurricane conditions is studied using the National Data Buoy Center directional wave buoy data set from the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The buoy information, comprising the directional wave spectra during the passage of several hurricanes, was referenced to the center of the hurricane using the path of the hurricane, the propagation velocity, and the radius of the maximum winds. The directional wave spectra were partitioned into their main components to quantify the energy corresponding to the observed wave systems and to distinguish between wind-sea and swell. The findings are consistent with those found using remote sensing data (e.g., Scanning Radar Altimeter data). Based on the previous work, the highest waves are found in the right forward quadrant of the hurricane, where the spectral shape tends to become uni-modal, in the vicinity of the region of maximum winds. More complex spectral shapes are observed in distant regions at the front of and in the rear quadrants of the hurricane, where there is a tendency of the spectra to become bi- and tri-modal. The dominant waves generally propagate at significant angles to the wind direction, except in the regions next to the maximum winds of the right quadrants. Evidence of waves generated by concentric eyewalls associated with secondary maximum winds was also found. The frequency spectra display some of the characteristics of the JONSWAP spectrum adjusted by Young (J Geophys Res 111:8020, 2006); however, at the spectral peak, the similarity with the Pierson-Moskowitz spectrum is clear. These results establish the basis for the use in assessing the ability of numerical models to simulate the wave field in hurricanes.

Evidence and mechanism of Hurricane Fran-Induced ocean cooling in the Charleston Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Lian; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Bohm, E.; Zhang, C.; Li, X.

Evidence of enhanced sea surface cooling during and following the passage of Hurricane Fran in September 1996 over an oceanic depression located on the ocean margin offshore of Charleston, South Carolina (referred to as the Charleston Trough), [Pietrafesa, 1983] is documented. Approximately 4C° of sea surface temperature (SST) reduction within the Charleston Trough following the passage of Hurricane Fran was estimated based on SST imagery from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA-14 polar orbiting satellite. Simulations using a three-dimensional coastal ocean model indicate that the largest SST reduction occurred within the Charleston Trough. This SST reduction can be explained by oceanic mixing due to storm-induced internal inertia-gravity waves.

Total Precipitable Water

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2012-01-01

The simulation was performed on 64K cores of Intrepid, running at 0.25 simulated-years-per-day and taking 25 million core-hours. This is the first simulation using both the CAM5 physics and the highly scalable spectral element dynamical core. The animation of Total Precipitable Water clearly shows hurricanes developing in the Atlantic and Pacific.

Hurricane Mitch: Peak Discharge for Selected River Reachesin Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Mark E.; Phillips, Jeffrey V.; Spahr, Norman E.

2002-01-01

Hurricane Mitch began as a tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea on 22 October 1998. By 26 October, Mitch had strengthened to a Category 5 storm as defined by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (National Climate Data Center, 1999a), and on 27 October was threatening the northern coast of Honduras (fig. 1). After making landfall 2 days later (29 October), the storm drifted south and west across Honduras, wreaking destruction throughout the country before reaching the Guatemalan border on 31 October. According to the National Climate Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (National Climate Data Center, 1999b), Hurricane Mitch ranks among the five strongest storms on record in the Atlantic Basin in terms of its sustained winds, barometric pressure, and duration. Hurricane Mitch also was one of the worst Atlantic storms in terms of loss of life and property. The regionwide death toll was estimated to be more than 9,000; thousands of people were reported missing. Economic losses in the region were more than $7.5 billion (U.S. Agency for International Development, 1999). Honduras suffered the most widespread devastation during the storm. More than 5,000 deaths, and economic losses of more than $4 billion, were reported by the Government of Honduras. Honduran officials estimated that Hurricane Mitch destroyed 50 years of economic development. In addition to the human and economic losses, intense flooding and landslides scarred the Honduran landscape - hydrologic and geomorphologic processes throughout the country likely will be affected for many years. As part of the U.S. Government's response to the disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted post-flood measurements of peak discharge at 16 river sites throughout Honduras (fig. 2). Such measurements, termed 'indirect' measurements, are used to determine peak flows when direct measurements (using current meters or dye studies, for example) cannot be made. Indirect measurements of peak discharge are based on post-flood surveys of the river channel (observed high-water marks, cross sections, and hydraulic properties) and model computation of peak discharge. Determination of the flood peaks associated with Hurricane Mitch will help scientists understand the magnitude of this devastating hurricane. Peak-discharge information also is critical for the proper design of hydraulic structures (such as bridges and levees), delineation of theoretical flood boundaries, and development of stage-discharge relations at streamflow-monitoring sites.

Aeroelastic Modeling of Offshore Turbines and Support Structures in Hurricane-Prone Regions (Poster)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Damiani, R.

US offshore wind turbines (OWTs) will likely have to contend with hurricanes and the associated loading conditions. Current industry standards do not account for these design load cases (DLCs), thus a new approach is required to guarantee that the OWTs achieve an appropriate level of reliability. In this study, a sequentially coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic modeling technique was used to address two design approaches: 1.) The ABS (American Bureau of Shipping) approach; and 2.) The Hazard Curve or API (American Petroleum Institute) approach. The former employs IEC partial load factors (PSFs) and 100-yr return-period (RP) metocean events. The latter allows setting PSFsmore » and RP to a prescribed level of system reliability. The 500-yr RP robustness check (appearing in [2] and [3] upcoming editions) is a good indicator of the target reliability for L2 structures. CAE tools such as NREL's FAST and Bentley's' SACS (offshore analysis and design software) can be efficiently coupled to simulate system loads under hurricane DLCs. For this task, we augmented the latest FAST version (v. 8) to include tower aerodynamic drag that cannot be ignored in hurricane DLCs. In this project, a 6 MW turbine was simulated on a typical 4-legged jacket for a mid-Atlantic site. FAST-calculated tower base loads were fed to SACS at the interface level (transition piece); SACS added hydrodynamic and wind loads on the exposed substructure, and calculated mudline overturning moments, and member and joint utilization. Results show that CAE tools can be effectively used to compare design approaches for the design of OWTs in hurricane regions and to achieve a well-balanced design, where reliability levels and costs are optimized.« less

Localized Upper Tropospheric Warming During Tropical Depression and Storm Formation Revealed by the NOAA-15 AMSU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spencer, Roy W.; Braswell, William D.

1999-01-01

The warm core of hurricanes as measured by microwave temperature sounders has been related to various azimuthally averaged measures of hurricane strength by several researchers Unfortunately, the use of these instruments (e.g. the Microwave Sounding Units, MSU) for the routine monitoring of tropical cyclone genesis and intensity has been hampered by poor resolution. The recent launch of the NOAA-15 AMSU represents a significant advance in our ability to monitor subtle atmospheric temperature variations (0.1-0.2 C) at relatively high spatial resolution (50 km) in the presence of clouds. Of particular interest is the possible capability of the AMSU to observe the slight warming associated with depression formation, and the relationship of the spatial characteristics of the warming to the surface pressure and wind field, without azimuthal averaging. In order to present the AMSU data as imagery, we have developed a method for precise limb-correction of all 15 AMSU channels. Through a linear combination of several neighboring channels, we can very closely match the nadir weighting functions of a given AMSU sounding channel with the non-nadir data. It is found that there is discernible, localized upper tropospheric warming associated with depression formation in the Atlantic basin during the 1998 hurricane season. Also, it is found that uncertainty in positioning of tropical cyclone circulation centers can be reduced, as in the example of Hurricane Georges as it approached Cuba. Finally, to explore the potential utility of a future high resolution microwave temperature sounder, we present an analysis of the relationship between the modeled surface wind field and simulated high -resolution AMSU-type measurements, based upon cloud resolving model simulations of hurricane Andrew in 1992.

Heat and turbulent kinetic energy budgets for surface layer cooling induced by the passage of Hurricane Frances (2004)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Peisheng; Sanford, Thomas B.; Imberger, JöRg

2009-12-01

Heat and turbulent kinetic energy budgets of the ocean surface layer during the passage of Hurricane Frances were examined using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. In situ data obtained with the Electromagnetic-Autonomous Profiling Explorer (EM-APEX) floats were used to set up the initial conditions of the model simulation and to compare to the simulation results. The spatial heat budgets reveal that during the hurricane passage, not only the entrainment in the bottom of surface mixed layer but also the horizontal water advection were important factors determining the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. At the free surface, the hurricane-brought precipitation contributed a negligible amount to the air-sea heat exchange, but the precipitation produced a negative buoyancy flux in the surface layer that overwhelmed the instability induced by the heat loss to the atmosphere. Integrated over the domain within 400 km of the hurricane eye on day 245.71 of 2004, the rate of heat anomaly in the surface water was estimated to be about 0.45 PW (1 PW = 1015 W), with about 20% (0.09 PW in total) of this was due to the heat exchange at the air-sea interface, and almost all the remainder (0.36 PW) was downward transported by oceanic vertical mixing. Shear production was the major source of turbulent kinetic energy amounting 88.5% of the source of turbulent kinetic energy, while the rest (11.5%) was attributed to the wind stirring at sea surface. The increase of ocean potential energy due to vertical mixing represented 7.3% of the energy deposited by wind stress.

The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Hurricane Intensity and Track

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shi, Jainn Jong; Chen, Shuyi S.; Lang, Stephen; Lin, Pay-Liam; Hong, Song-You; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Hou, Arthur

2011-01-01

During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation system. It incorporates a modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numerics and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options. At NASA Goddard, four different cloud microphysics options have been implemented into WRF. The performance of these schemes is compared to those of the other microphysics schemes available in WRF for an Atlantic hurricane case (Katrina). In addition, a brief review of previous modeling studies on the impact of microphysics schemes and processes on the intensity and track of hurricanes is presented and compared against the current Katrina study. In general, all of the studies show that microphysics schemes do not have a major impact on track forecasts but do have more of an effect on the simulated intensity. Also, nearly all of the previous studies found that simulated hurricanes had the strongest deepening or intensification when using only warm rain physics. This is because all of the simulated precipitating hydrometeors are large raindrops that quickly fall out near the eye-wall region, which would hydrostatically produce the lowest pressure. In addition, these studies suggested that intensities become unrealistically strong when evaporative cooling from cloud droplets and melting from ice particles are removed as this results in much weaker downdrafts in the simulated storms. However, there are many differences between the different modeling studies, which are identified and discussed.

Radial-vertical profiles of tropical cyclone derived from dropsondes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Yifang

The scopes of this thesis research are two folds: the first one is to the construct the intensity-based composite radial-vertical profiles of tropical cyclones (TC) using GPS-based dropsonde observations and the second one is to identify the major deficiencies of Mathur vortices against the dropsonde composites of TCs. The intensity-based dropsonde composites of TCs advances our understanding of the dynamic and thermal structure of TCs of different intensity along the radial direction in and above the boundary layer where lies the devastating high wind that causes property damages and storm surges. The identification of the major deficiencies of Mathur vortices in representing the radial-vertical profiles of TC of different intensity helps to improve numerical predictions of TCs since most operational TC forecast models need to utilize bogus vortices, such as Mathur vortices, to initialize TC forecasts and simulations. We first screen all available GPS dropsonde data within and round 35 named TCs over the tropical Atlantic basin from 1996 to 2010 and pair them with TC parameters derived from the best-track data provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and select 1149 dropsondes that have continuous coverage in the lower troposphere. The composite radial-vertical profiles of tangential wind speed, temperature, mixing ratio and humidity are based for each TC category ranging from "Tropical Storm" (TS) to "Hurricane Category 1" (H1) through "Hurricane Category 5" (H5). The key findings of the dropsonde composites are: (i) all TCs have the maximum tangential wind within 1 km above the ground and a distance of 1-2 times of the radius of maximum wind (RMW) at the surface; (ii) all TCs have a cold ring surrounding the warm core near the boundary layer at a distance of 1-3 times of the RMW and the cold ring structure gradually diminishes at a higher elevation where the warm core structure prevails along the radial direction; (iii) the existence of such shallow cold ring outside the RMW explains why the maximum tangential wind is within 1 km above the ground and is outside the RMW, as required by the hydrostatic and gradient wind balance relations; (iv) one of the main differences among TCs of different intensity, besides the speed of the maximum tangential wind, is the vertical extent of near-saturated moisture air layer inside the core. A weaker TC tends to have a deep layer of the near-saturated moisture air layer whereas a stronger TC has a shallow one; (v) another main difference in the thermal structure among TCs of different intensity is the intensity and vertical extent of the warm core extending from the upper layer to the lower layer. In general, a stronger TC has a stronger warm core extending downward further into lower layer and vice versa. The features (iv) and (v) are consistent with the fact that a stronger TC tends to have stronger descending motion inside the core. The main deficiencies of Mathur vortices in representing the radial-vertical profiles of TC of different intensity are (i) Mathur vortices of all categories have the maximum wind at the surface; (ii) none of Mathur vortices have a cold ring outside the warm core near the boundary layer; (iii) Mathur vortices tend to overestimate warm core structure in reference to the horizontal mean temperature profile; (iv) Mathur vortices tend to overestimate the vertical depth of the near-saturated air layer near the boundary layer.

Assessment of vehicle performance in harsh environments using LSU driving simulator and numerical simulations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-12-01

With the economic booming development of coastal areas, the importance of the traffic planning becomes : obvious not only in a hurricane evacuation but also in the daily transportation. Vehicle performance on the : freeway during harsh environments i...

EnKF OSSE Experiments Assessing the Impact of HIRAD Wind Speed and HIWRAP Radial Velocity Data on Analysis of Hurricane Karl (2010)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albers, Cerese; Sippel, Jason A.; Braun, Scott A.; Miller, Timothy

2012-01-01

Previous studies (e.g., Zhang et al. 2009, Weng et al. 2011) have shown that radial velocity data from airborne and ground-based radars can be assimilated into ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) systems to produce accurate analyses of tropical cyclone vortices, which can reduce forecast intensity error. Recently, wind speed data from SFMR technology has also been assimilated into the same types of systems and has been shown to improve the forecast intensity of mature tropical cyclones. Two instruments that measure these properties were present during the NASA Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) field experiment in 2010 which sampled Hurricane Karl, and will next be co-located on the same aircraft for the subsequent NASA HS3 experiment. The High Altitude Wind and Rain Profiling Radar (HIWRAP) is a conically scanning Doppler radar mounted upon NASAs Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicle, and the usefulness of its radial velocity data for assimilation has not been previously examined. Since the radar scans from above with a fairly large fixed elevation angle, it observes a large component of the vertical wind, which could degrade EnKF analyses compared to analyses with data taken from lesser elevation angles. The NASA Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a passive microwave radiometer similar to SFMR, and measures emissivity and retrieves hurricane surface wind speeds and rain rates over a much wider swath. Thus, this study examines the impact of assimilating simulated HIWRAP radial velocity data into an EnKF system, simulated HIRAD wind speed, and HIWRAP+HIRAD with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and compares the results to no data assimilation and also to the Truth from which the data was simulated for both instruments.

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Parameterized Convection in the NASA GEOS5 Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Reale, Oreste; Lee, Myong-In; Molod, Andrea M.; Suarez, Max J.

2014-01-01

The sensitivity of tropical cyclones (TCs) to changes in parameterized convection is investigated to improve the simulation of TCs in the North Atlantic. Specifically, the impact of reducing the influence of the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme-based parameterized convection is explored using the Goddard Earth Observing System version5 (GEOS5) model at 0.25 horizontal resolution. The years 2005 and 2006 characterized by very active and inactive hurricane seasons, respectively, are selected for simulation. A reduction in parameterized deep convection results in an increase in TC activity (e.g., TC number and longer life cycle) to more realistic levels compared to the baseline control configuration. The vertical and horizontal structure of the strongest simulated hurricane shows the maximum lower-level (850-950hPa) wind speed greater than 60 ms and the minimum sea level pressure reaching 940mb, corresponding to a category 4 hurricane - a category never achieved by the control configuration. The radius of the maximum wind of 50km, the location of the warm core exceeding 10 C, and the horizontal compactness of the hurricane center are all quite realistic without any negatively affecting the atmospheric mean state. This study reveals that an increase in the threshold of minimum entrainment suppresses parameterized deep convection by entraining more dry air into the typical plume. This leads to cooling and drying at the mid- to upper-troposphere, along with the positive latent heat flux and moistening in the lower-troposphere. The resulting increase in conditional instability provides an environment that is more conducive to TC vortex development and upward moisture flux convergence by dynamically resolved moist convection, thereby increasing TC activity.

Analyzing the Response of Climate Perturbations to (Tropical) Cyclones using the WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tewari, M.; Mittal, R.; Radhakrishnan, C.; Cipriani, J.; Watson, C.

2015-12-01

An analysis of global climate models shows considerable changes in the intensity and characteristics of future, warm climate cyclones. At regional scales, deviations in cyclone characteristics are often derived using idealized perturbations in the humidity, temperature and surface conditions. In this work, a more realistic approach is adopted by applying climate perturbations from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) to ERA-interim data to generate the initial and boundary conditions for future climate simulations. The climate signal perturbations are generated from the differences in 21 years of mean data from CCSM4 with representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5) for the periods: (a) 2070-2090 (future climate), (b) 2025-2045 (near-future climate) and (c) 1985-2005 (current climate). Four individual cyclone cases are simulated with and without climate perturbations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with a nested configuration. Each cyclone is characterized by variations in intensity, landfall location, precipitation and societal damage. To calculate societal damage, we use the recently introduced Cyclone Damage Potential (CDP) index evolved from the Willis Hurricane Index (WHI). As CDP has been developed for general societal applications, this work should provide useful insights for resilience analyses and industry (e.g., re-insurance).

Upper-ocean Response to Hurricane Gonzalo (2014): Salinity Effects Revealed by Targeted and Sustained Underwater Glider Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domingues, R. M.; Goni, G. J.; Bringas, F.; Lee, S. K.; Kim, H. S. S.; Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Dong, J.; Morell, J. M.; Pomales, L.

2016-02-01

In July 2014, two underwater gliders were deployed off Puerto Rico as part of a multi-institutional effort lead by NOAA/AOML funded by the Disaster Appropriations Relief Act of 2013 known as Sandy Supplemental. The goal of this work is to collect ocean observations to: (1) investigate the response of the ocean to tropical cyclone (TC) wind conditions; (2) improve understanding on the role that the ocean plays in the intensification of TCs; and (3) help improve TC seasonal and intensity forecasts. The two gliders were piloted along predetermined tracks in the Caribbean Sea and in the North Atlantic Ocean (Figure 1), where TCs very often travel and intensify. On October 12, 2014, TC Gonzalo developed in the tropical North Atlantic, reaching the status of Category 3 hurricane on October 14 as it travelled 85 km northeast of the location of the glider (site B, Figure 1). The sampling strategy adopted during the passage of Hurricane Gonzalo consisted of carrying out observations: along a repeat section three times between sites A and B, one before and two after the passage of the hurricane; and at a fixed location at site B during the passage of the hurricane. Observations collected before, during, and after the passage of this hurricane were analyzed to improve our understanding of the upper-ocean response to hurricane winds. The main finding in this study is that salinity played an important role on the upper-ocean response to Hurricane Gonzalo; where a near-surface barrier-layer has likely suppressed the hurricane-induced upper-ocean cooling, leading to smaller than expected temperature changes of -0.4°C. Post-storm observations also revealed a partial recovery of the ocean to pre-storm conditions 11 days after the hurricane. Glider observations were further compared with outputs from a numerical coupled atmospheric-ocean model used for hurricane prediction to evaluate the model performance in simulating the upper-ocean response during Hurricane Gonzalo. The comparison revealed that model-observations discrepancies were largely linked to salinity effects. Results presented in this study emphasize the value of underwater glider observations for improving our knowledge of how the ocean responds to tropical cyclone winds and for tropical cyclone intensification studies and forecasts.

Mesoscale Assimilation of TMI Rainfall Data with 4DVAR: Sensitivity Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Pu, Zhaoxia

2003-01-01

Sensitivity studies are performed on the assimilation of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) Microwave Imager (TMI) derived rainfall data into a mesoscale model using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technique. A series of numerical experiments is conducted to evaluate the impact of TMI rainfall data on the numerical simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). The results indicate that rainfall data assimilation is sensitive to the error characteristics of the data and the inclusion of physics in the adjoint and forward models. In addition, assimilating the rainfall data alone is helpful for producing a more realistic eye and rain bands in the hurricane but does not ensure improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts. Further study indicated that it is necessary to incorporate TMI rainfall data together with other types of data such as wind data into the model, in which case the inclusion of the rainfall data further improves the intensity forecast of the hurricane. This implies that proper constraints may be needed for rainfall assimilation.

Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walsh, Kevin J. E.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results frommore » other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased compared with experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased. Experiments where only carbon dioxide is increased are more likely to demonstrate a decrease in tropical cyclone numbers, similar to the decreases simulated by many climate models for a future, warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Lastly, further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.« less

Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

DOE PAGES

Walsh, Kevin J. E.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; ...

2015-06-01

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results frommore » other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased compared with experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased. Experiments where only carbon dioxide is increased are more likely to demonstrate a decrease in tropical cyclone numbers, similar to the decreases simulated by many climate models for a future, warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Lastly, further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.« less

Incorporating Climate Change Effects into Next-Generation Coastal Inundation Decision Support Systems: An Integrated and Community-Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Y.; Davis, J. R.; Paramygin, V. A.; LaRow, T.; Chassignet, E.; Stefanova, L. B.; Lu, J.; Xie, L.; Montalvo, S.; Liu, J.; Liu, B.

2012-12-01

75% of the world population lives within 100 km from the coastline. Coastal communities are subject to increasing coastal inundation risk due to the combined effects of hurricane-induced storm surge, tsunami, climate change, and sea level rise. This study is developing the next generation decision support systems (DSS) for storm surge and coastal inundation by incorporating the climate change impacts on hurricanes and sea level rise (SLR) along the Florida and North Carolina coast. Using a new methodology (instead of the "bath tub" approach) enhanced by the Institute for Sustainable Coastal Environment and Infrastructure (InSCEI) at University of Florida (UF), highly accurate and efficient coastal inundation maps (Base Flood Elevations and Surge Atlas) are being produced for current climate conditions. Atmospheric and climate scientists at Florida State University (FSU) and North Carolina State University (NCSU) are using global (FSU/COAPS) and regional (WRF) atmospheric models to estimate the range in hurricane activities during 2020-2040 and 2080-2100, using projected SSTs from the IPCC CMIP5 climate scenarios as lower boundary conditions. SLR experts at NCSU and FSU are analyzing historical sea level data and conducting numerical modeling to estimate the SLR at the coastal boundaries for the same IPCC scenarios. UF and NCSU are using the hurricane ensembles and the SLR scenarios provided by FSU and NCSU as input to storm surge and inundation models (CH3D-SSMS and CMAEPS, respectively) to produce high resolution inundation maps which include climate change effects. These future-climate coastal inundation maps will be much more accurate than the current ones and greatly improve the stakeholders' ability to mitigate coastal inundation risk throughout the U.S. and the world. These inundation maps for current and future climates will be communicated to a wide spectrum of stakeholders for feedback and further improvement. A national workshop will be held in January 2013 to engage stakeholders, researchers, and managers (federal, state, and local) of coastal inundation to develop strategies to improve communications among the various entities and to gather inputs on the development of the next -generation coastal inundation decision support system.

The dynamics of heatwave over a coastal megacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramamurthy, P.

2017-12-01

A majority of the current population in the U.S. resides in urban areas and nearly 40% live in urban coastal communities. These cities are disproportionately affected by extreme events such as heatwaves, hurricanes and extreme precipitation. The microclimate of the coastal cities is profoundly influenced by the interaction between the highly convective urban core and the moist sea breeze advection. However, such interactions are poorly characterized due to lack of observations over these complex terrains. Herein we use a comprehensive observational platform and numerical simulations to characterize the impact of heatwaves over New York City. As part of the campaign the urban boundary layer over New York City was continuously monitored during July 2016, a period that witnessed three heatwave events. Surface weather stations and indoor sensors were also used to characterize the urban heat island intensity. Our results reveal that during the month, the urban heat island intensity was nearly twice as compared to the decadal average. During the heatwave episodes urban heat island intensities as high as 10 ˚C were observed. The thermal profiles indicate elevated temperatures in much of the boundary layer between 800-2500 m during the heatwave episodes. The profiles indicate a complex thermal structure and high intra-city variability. Thermal internal boundary layer was observed in neighborhoods populated by tall buildings. The results show that heat released from buildings heating and air conditioning system during extreme heat events can be as high as 18 percent of the overall available energy. Overall the high-pressure system during the heatwave episodes acted as a thermal block and much of the heat generated in the urban surface layer remained within the boundary layer, thereby amplifying the near surface air temperature.

Modeling and Analysis of the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mauro, Stephanie

2013-01-01

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRad) is a payload carried by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) at altitudes up to 60,000 ft with the purpose of measuring ocean surface wind speeds and near ocean surface rain rates in hurricanes. The payload includes several components that must maintain steady temperatures throughout the flight. Minimizing the temperature drift of these components allows for accurate data collection and conclusions to be drawn concerning the behavior of hurricanes. HIRad has flown on several different UAVs over the past two years during the fall hurricane season. Based on the data from the 2011 flight, a Thermal Desktop model was created to simulate the payload and reproduce the temperatures. Using this model, recommendations were made to reduce the temperature drift through the use of heaters controlled by resistance temperature detector (RTD) sensors. The suggestions made were implemented for the 2012 hurricane season and further data was collected. The implementation of the heaters reduced the temperature drift for a portion of the flight, but after a period of time, the temperatures rose. With this new flight data, the thermal model was updated and correlated. Detailed analysis was conducted to determine a more effective way to reduce the temperature drift. The final recommendations made were to adjust the set temperatures of the heaters for 2013 flights and implement hardware changes for flights beyond 2013.

Thermal Modeling and Analysis of the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRad)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mauro, Stephanie

2013-01-01

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRad) is a payload carried by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) at altitudes up to 60,000 ft with the purpose of measuring ocean surface wind speeds and near ocean surface rain rates in hurricanes. The payload includes several components that must maintain steady temperatures throughout the flight. Minimizing the temperature drift of these components allows for accurate data collection and conclusions to be drawn concerning the behavior of hurricanes. HIRad has flown on several different UAVs over the past two years during the fall hurricane season. Based on the data from the 2011 flight, a Thermal Desktop model was created to simulate the payload and reproduce the temperatures. Using this model, recommendations were made to reduce the temperature drift through the use of heaters controlled by resistance temperature detector (RTD) sensors. The suggestions made were implemented for the 2012 hurricane season and further data was collected. The implementation of the heaters reduced the temperature drift for a portion of the flight, but after a period of time, the temperatures rose. With this new flight data, the thermal model was updated and correlated. Detailed analysis was conducted to determine a more effective way to reduce the temperature drift. The final recommendations made were to adjust the set temperatures of the heaters for 2013 flights and implement hardware changes for flights beyond 2013.

Dependence of Hurricane intensity and structures on vertical resolution and time-step size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Da-Lin; Wang, Xiaoxue

2003-09-01

In view of the growing interests in the explicit modeling of clouds and precipitation, the effects of varying vertical resolution and time-step sizes on the 72-h explicit simulation of Hurricane Andrew (1992) are studied using the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model (i.e., MM5) with the finest grid size of 6 km. It is shown that changing vertical resolution and time-step size has significant effects on hurricane intensity and inner-core cloud/precipitation, but little impact on the hurricane track. In general, increasing vertical resolution tends to produce a deeper storm with lower central pressure and stronger three-dimensional winds, and more precipitation. Similar effects, but to a less extent, occur when the time-step size is reduced. It is found that increasing the low-level vertical resolution is more efficient in intensifying a hurricane, whereas changing the upper-level vertical resolution has little impact on the hurricane intensity. Moreover, the use of a thicker surface layer tends to produce higher maximum surface winds. It is concluded that the use of higher vertical resolution, a thin surface layer, and smaller time-step sizes, along with higher horizontal resolution, is desirable to model more realistically the intensity and inner-core structures and evolution of tropical storms as well as the other convectively driven weather systems.

Development of Physics-Based Hurricane Wave Response Functions: Application to Selected Sites on the U.S. Gulf Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, P. W.; Kaihatu, J. M.; Irish, J. L.; Taylor, N. R.; Slinn, D.

2013-12-01

Recent hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico has led to a need for accurate, computationally efficient prediction of hurricane damage so that communities can better assess risk of local socio-economic disruption. This study focuses on developing robust, physics based non-dimensional equations that accurately predict maximum significant wave height at different locations near a given hurricane track. These equations (denoted as Wave Response Functions, or WRFs) were developed from presumed physical dependencies between wave heights and hurricane characteristics and fit with data from numerical models of waves and surge under hurricane conditions. After curve fitting, constraints which correct for fully developed sea state were used to limit the wind wave growth. When applied to the region near Gulfport, MS, back prediction of maximum significant wave height yielded root mean square errors between 0.22-0.42 (m) at open coast stations and 0.07-0.30 (m) at bay stations when compared to the numerical model data. The WRF method was also applied to Corpus Christi, TX and Panama City, FL with similar results. Back prediction errors will be included in uncertainty evaluations connected to risk calculations using joint probability methods. These methods require thousands of simulations to quantify extreme value statistics, thus requiring the use of reduced methods such as the WRF to represent the relevant physical processes.

Impact on Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasts of GPS Dropwindsonde Observations from the First-Season Flights of the NOAA Gulfstream-IV Jet Aircraft.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aberson, Sim D.; Franklin, James L.

1999-03-01

In 1997, the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) began operational Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft missions to improve the numerical guidance for hurricanes threatening the continental United States, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. During these missions, the new generation of Global Positioning System dropwindsondes were released from the aircraft at 150-200-km intervals along the flight track in the environment of the tropical cyclone to obtain profiles of wind, temperature, and humidity from flight level to the surface. The observations were ingested into the global model at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which subsequently serves as initial and boundary conditions to other numerical tropical cyclone models. Because of a lack of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin, only five such missions were conducted during the inaugural 1997 hurricane season.Due to logistical constraints, sampling in all quadrants of the storm environment was accomplished in only one of the five cases during 1997. Nonetheless, the dropwindsonde observations improved mean track forecasts from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model by as much as 32%, and the intensity forecasts by as much as 20% during the hurricane watch period (within 48 h of projected landfall). Forecasts from another dynamical tropical cyclone model (VICBAR) also showed modest improvements with the dropwindsonde observations. These improvements, if confirmed by a larger sample, represent a large step toward the forecast accuracy goals of TPC. The forecast track improvements are as large as those accumulated over the past 20-25 years, and those for forecast intensity provide further evidence that better synoptic-scale data can lead to more skillful dynamical tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.

An Observational Study of Tropical Cyclone Spin-Up in Supertyphoon Jangmi and Hurricane Georges

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

Reconnaissance Squadron stationed at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft...implementation of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Global Positioning System (GPS) dropsonde in specialized boundary-layer...transiting the western Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean basins. 107 APPENDIX A: NCAR GPS DROPSONDES The Global Positioning System (GPS

Evaluation of Bogus Vortex Techniques with Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pu, Zhao-Xia; Braun, Scott A.

2000-01-01

The effectiveness of techniques for creating "bogus" vortices in numerical simulations of hurricanes is examined by using the Penn State/NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) and its adjoint system. A series of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4-D VAR) experiments is conducted to generate an initial vortex for Hurricane Georges (1998) in the Atlantic Ocean by assimilating bogus sea-level pressure and surface wind information into the mesoscale numerical model. Several different strategies are tested for improving the vortex representation. The initial vortices produced by the 4-D VAR technique are able to reproduce many of the structural features of mature hurricanes. The vortices also result in significant improvements to the hurricane forecasts in terms of both intensity and track. In particular, with assimilation of only bogus sea-level pressure information, the response in the wind field is contained largely within the divergent component, with strong convergence leading to strong upward motion near the center. Although the intensity of the initial vortex seems to be well represented, a dramatic spin down of the storm occurs within the first 6 h of the forecast. With assimilation of bogus surface wind data only, an expected dominance of the rotational component of the wind field is generated, but the minimum pressure is adjusted inadequately compared to the actual hurricane minimum pressure. Only when both the bogus surface pressure and wind information are assimilated together does the model produce a vortex that represents the actual intensity of the hurricane and results in significant improvements to forecasts of both hurricane intensity and track.

Marine Cloud Brightening: regional applications to the weakening of hurricanes and reduction in coral bleaching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadian, A.; Hauser, R.; Kleypas, J. A.; Latham, J.; Parkes, B.; Salter, S.

2013-12-01

This study examines the potential to cool ocean surface waters in regions of hurricane genesis and early development. This would be achieved by seeding, with copious quantities of seawater cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), low-level maritime stratocumulus clouds covering these regions or those at the source of incoming currents. Higher cloud droplet density would increase these clouds' reflectivity to incoming sunlight, and possibly their longevity. This approach is a more localized application of the Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) geoengineering technique promoting global cooling. By utilizing a climate ocean/atmosphere coupled model, HadGEM1, and by judicious seeding of maritime stratocumulus clouds, we demonstrate that we may be able to significantly reduce sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in hurricane development regions. Thus artificial seeding may reduce hurricane intensity; but how well the magnitude of this effect is yet to be determined. Increases in coral bleaching events over the last few decades have been largely caused by rising SSTs, and continued warming is expected to cause even greater increases through this century. Using thr same Global Climate Model to examine the potential of MCB to cool oceanic surface waters in three coral reef provinces. Our simulations indicate that under doubled CO2 conditions, the substantial increases in coral bleaching conditions from current values in three reef regions (Caribbean, French Polynesia, and the Great Barrier Reef) were eliminated when MCB was applied, which reduced the SSTs at these sites roughly to their original values. In this study we also illustrate how even regional application of MCB can affect the planetary meridional heat flux and the reduction in poleward heat transfer. (a) Change in annual average sea surface temperature, Celsius, between the 2xCO2 and CONTROL simulations. (b) Change in annual average sea surface temperature, Celsius, between the CONTROL and 2xCO2+MCB simulations. The dashed black boxes in both panels represent the three coral reef regions. In the Southern north Atlantic, the warmer SSTs in (a) is reduced to the current "control" temperatures, weakening hurricane formation.

Exploring the Cause of Catastrophic Caribbean Inundation in 1200-1480 C.E. Using Numerical Models Compared with Geological Evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Atwater, B. F.; Ten Brink, U. S.; Roeber, V.

2016-12-01

Did a tsunami of nearby origin cause the most extreme of the late Holocene overwash on an island near the NE corner of the Caribbean Plate? Or did this overwash result instead from tsunami-like bores of a hurricane? These alternatives arise at Anegada, a storm-prone island 120 km south of the Puerto Rico Trench. The island has geological evidence for three kinds of extreme waves, the most extreme of which scattered hundreds of coral boulders as much as 600 m inland sometime between 1200 C.E. and 1480 C.E. The flooding dwarfed the effects of modern historical hurricanes on the island, and also of overwash in 1650-1800 that may represent the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. New tsunami and hurricane wave simulations, incorporating lidar bathymetry and topography, have been tuned to the evidence for extreme waves in 1200-1480. These simulations were run for different hypothetical transatlantic, trench, and outer rise tsunami sources, and for extreme hurricanes. The successful tsunami scenarios entail minimum earthquake magnitudes of 8.4 for thrust faulting on the subduction interface and 8.2 for normal faulting on the outer wall of the trench. "Success" signifies inundation of all, or nearly all, the sites where field evidence for flooding in 1200-1480 has been found. Such success has not been obtained with any of the 15 hurricane scenarios tried thus far. These scenarios presuppose storms of category 5 in which infragravity waves form tsunami-like bores at a fringing coral reef. We tried five scenarios for each of three storm tracks that pass at different orientations within 40 km of Anegada. The rigorous storm model package accounts for linkage of circulation, spectral wave, and Boussineq models in nested computational schemes that explain both phase-averaging and phase-resolving wave processes. We are making additional simulations with the same kind of phase-resolving Boussinesq model that has replicated tsunami-like bores from surf beat on reef-protected shore in the Philippines during 2013 Typhoon Haiyan.

Sedimentary Records of the Paleohurricane Activity in the Bahamas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, E. J.; Donnelly, J. P.; Wiman, C.; Cashman, M.

2015-12-01

Hurricanes pose a threat to human lives and can cause significant destruction of coastal areas. This threat has become more pronounced with recent rises in sea level and coastal populations. Currently, there is a large degree of uncertainty surrounding future changes in tropical cyclone activity. This is due to the limitations of climate models as well as the scarcity and unreliability of the current observational record. With so much uncertainty surrounding the current projections of hurricane activity, it is crucial to establish a longer and more accurate historical record. This study uses sediment cores extracted from blueholes in the Bahamas to develop a record of intense hurricane landfalls in the region dating back more than a millennia. The collected cores were sectioned, split, and scanned on an X-ray fluorescence scanner to obtain a high resolution core profile of the sediments' elemental composition and to identify potential sedimentary structures. Age control of the samples was determined using radiocarbon dating, coarse fraction was measured every centimeter, and hurricane event bed frequency was established for each core. We assess the statistical significance of the patterns observed in the sedimentary record using a coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane model to simulate storms representative of modern climatology. Cores extracted from two blue holes near South Andros Island provide approximately a 1600 year and a 600 year record respectively, with sedimentation rates exceeding 1 cm/year. Both records contain coarse grained event deposits that correlate with known historical intense hurricane strikes in the Bahamas within age uncertainties. The 1600 year record confirms previous hurricane reconstructions from the Caribbean indicating higher tropical cyclone activity from 500 to 1400 CE. In addition, these new high-resolution records indicate elevated intense hurricane activity in the 17th and 18th centuries CE, when activity is also elevated in lower resolution records from Abaco, Bahamas and Vieques, Puerto Rico. However, records from the northeast United States and Gulf of Mexico are relatively inactive. This spatial variability in intense hurricane landfalls suggests significant regional controls on hurricane activity.

The measurement of winds over the ocean from Skylab with application to measuring and forecasting typhoons and hurricanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cardone, V. J.; Pierson, W. J.

1975-01-01

On Skylab, a combination microwave radar-radiometer (S193) made measurements in a tropical hurricane (AVA), a tropical storm, and various extratropical wind systems. The winds at each cell scanned by the instrument were determined by objective numerical analysis techniques. The measured radar backscatter is compared to the analyzed winds and shown to provide an accurate method for measuring winds from space. An operational version of the instrument on an orbiting satellite will be able to provide the kind of measurements in tropical cyclones available today only by expensive and dangerous aircraft reconnaissance. Additionally, the specifications of the wind field in the tropical boundary layer should contribute to improved accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasts made with numerical weather predictions models currently being applied to the tropical atmosphere.

Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a High-Resolution Model: Sensitivity to Large-Scale Boundary Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Anil; Done, James; Dudhia, Jimy; Niyogi, Dev

2011-01-01

The predictability of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal was explored in terms of track and intensity using the Advanced Research Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (AHW) model. This constitutes the first application of the AHW over an area that lies outside the region of the North Atlantic for which this model was developed and tested. Several experiments were conducted to understand the possible contributing factors that affected Sidr s intensity and track simulation by varying the initial start time and domain size. Results show that Sidr s track was strongly controlled by the synoptic flow at the 500-hPa level, seen especially due to the strong mid-latitude westerly over north-central India. A 96-h forecast produced westerly winds over north-central India at the 500-hPa level that were notably weaker; this likely caused the modeled cyclone track to drift from the observed actual track. Reducing the model domain size reduced model error in the synoptic-scale winds at 500 hPa and produced an improved cyclone track. Specifically, the cyclone track appeared to be sensitive to the upstream synoptic flow, and was, therefore, sensitive to the location of the western boundary of the domain. However, cyclone intensity remained largely unaffected by this synoptic wind error at the 500-hPa level. Comparison of the high resolution, moving nested domain with a single coarser resolution domain showed little difference in tracks, but resulted in significantly different intensities. Experiments on the domain size with regard to the total precipitation simulated by the model showed that precipitation patterns and 10-m surface winds were also different. This was mainly due to the mid-latitude westerly flow across the west side of the model domain. The analysis also suggested that the total precipitation pattern and track was unchanged when the domain was extended toward the east, north, and south. Furthermore, this highlights our conclusion that Sidr was influenced from the west side of the domain. The displacement error was significantly reduced after the domain size from the western model boundary was decreased. Study results demonstrate the capability and need of a high-resolution mesoscale modeling framework for simulating the complex interactions that contribute to the formation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal region

World, We Have Problems: Simulation for Large Complex, Risky Projects, and Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elfrey, Priscilla

2010-01-01

Prior to a spacewalk during the NASA STS/129 mission in November 2009, Columbia Broadcasting System (CBS) correspondent William Harwood reported astronauts, "were awakened again", as they had been the day previously. Fearing something not properly connected was causing a leak, the crew, both on the ground and in space, stopped and checked everything. The alarm proved false. The crew did complete its work ahead of schedule, but the incident reminds us that correctly connecting hundreds and thousands of entities, subsystems and systems, finding leaks, loosening stuck valves, and adding replacements to very large complex systems over time does not occur magically. Everywhere major projects present similar pressures. Lives are at - risk. Responsibility is heavy. Large natural and human-created disasters introduce parallel difficulties as people work across boundaries their countries, disciplines, languages, and cultures with known immediate dangers as well as the unexpected. NASA has long accepted that when humans have to go where humans cannot go that simulation is the sole solution. The Agency uses simulation to achieve consensus, reduce ambiguity and uncertainty, understand problems, make decisions, support design, do planning and troubleshooting, as well as for operations, training, testing, and evaluation. Simulation is at the heart of all such complex systems, products, projects, programs, and events. Difficult, hazardous short and, especially, long-term activities have a persistent need for simulation from the first insight into a possibly workable idea or answer until the final report perhaps beyond our lifetime is put in the archive. With simulation we create a common mental model, try-out breakdowns of machinery or teamwork, and find opportunity for improvement. Lifecycle simulation proves to be increasingly important as risks and consequences intensify. Across the world, disasters are increasing. We anticipate more of them, as the results of global warming prove more and more ominous-glaciers melting in Bolivia, floods in Saudi Arabia, the Maldives sinking and salt rising along the Nile. Fear grows about potential asteroid crashes and nightly television images raise awareness of victims of floods, hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons, fire, tornado, tsunami, bombings, landslides, and cross-boundary criminality. The Red Cross says that disasters impact 250 million people each year. That means that 700,000 people are having a very bad day today. Modeling and simulation is and must be part of the solution.

Nature Run for the North Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Region: System Evaluation and Regional Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kourafalou, V.; Androulidakis, I.; Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Kang, H.; Mehari, M. F.; Atlas, R. M.

2016-02-01

A prototype ocean Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) system, first developed and data validated in the Gulf of Mexico, has been applied on the extended North Atlantic Ocean hurricane region. The main objectives of this study are: a) to contribute toward a fully relocatable ocean OSSE system by expanding the Gulf of Mexico OSSE to the North Atlantic Ocean; b) demonstrate and quantify improvements in hurricane forecasting when the ocean component of coupled hurricane models is advanced through targeted observations and assimilation. The system is based on the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and has been applied on a 1/250 Mercator mesh for the free-running Nature Run (NR) and on a 1/120 Mercator mesh for the data assimilative forecast model (FM). A "fraternal twin" system is employed, using two different realizations for NR and FM, each configured to produce substantially different physics and truncation errors. The NR has been evaluated using a variety of available observations, such as from AVISO, GDEM climatology and GHRSST observations, plus specific regional products (upper ocean profiles from air-borne instruments, surface velocity maps derived from the historical drifter data set and tropical cyclone heat potential maps derived from altimetry observations). The utility of the OSSE system to advance the knowledge of regional air-sea interaction processes related to hurricane activity is demonstrated in the Amazon region (salinity induced surface barrier layer) and the Gulf Stream region (hurricane impact on the Gulf Stream extension).

Linkage of Rainfall-Runoff and Hurricane Storm Surge in Galveston Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deitz, R.; Christian, J.; Wright, G.; Fang, N.; Bedient, P.

2012-12-01

In conjunction with the SSPEED Center, large rainfall events in the upper Gulf of Mexico are being studied in an effort to help design a surge gate to protect the Houston Ship Channel during hurricane events. The ship channel is the world's second largest petrochemical complex and the Coast Guard estimates that a one-month closure would have a $60 billion dollar impact on the national economy. In this effort, statistical design storms, such as the 24-hour PMP, as well as historical storms, like Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Katrina, and Hurricane Rita, are being simulated in a hydrologic/hydraulic model using radar and rain gauge data. VfloTM, a distributed hydrologic model, is being used to quantify the effect that storm size, intensity, and location has on timing and peak flows in the in the upper drainage area. These hydrographs were input to a hydraulic model with various storm surges from Galveston Bay. Results indicate that there is a double peak phenomenon with flows from the west draining days earlier than flows from the north. With storm surge typically lasting 36-48 hours, this indicates the flows from the west are interacting with the storm surge, whereas flows from the north would arrive once the storm surge is receding. Gate operations were optimized in the model to account for the relative timing of upland runoff and hurricane surge, and to quantify the capability of the gate structure to protect the Ship Channel industry.

Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

PubMed

Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

2013-12-01

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Effects of Convective Asymmetries on Hurricane Intensity: A Numerical Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Liguang; Braun, Scott A.

2003-01-01

The influence of the uniform large-scale flow, beta effect, and vertical shear of the environmental flow on hurricane intensity is investigated in the context of the induced convective or potential vorticity asymmetries with a hydrostatic primitive equation hurricane model. In agreement with the previous studies, imposing of one of these environmental effects can substantially weaken the simulated tropical cyclones. In response t o the environmental influence, significant asymmetries develop with a structure similar to the spiral bands in real hurricanes, which are dominated by wavenumber-one components. The tendencies of the mean radial, azimuthal winds and temperature associated with the environment-induced convective asymmetries are evaluated respectively. The resulting asymmetries can effectively reduce hurricane intensity by directly producing the negative tendency of the mean tangential wind in the vicinity of the radius of maximum wind, and by weakening the mean radial circulation. The reduction effects are closely associated with the spiral structure of the induced asymmetries. The time lag observed between the imposition of the environmental influence and the resulting rise in the minimum central pressure is the time required for developing the spiral structure. This study also confirms the axisymmetrization process associated with the induced wavenumber-one components of potential vorticity asymmetries, but it exists only within the radius of maximum wind.

Simulating the effects of social networks on a population's hurricane evacuation participation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widener, Michael J.; Horner, Mark W.; Metcalf, Sara S.

2013-04-01

Scientists have noted that recent shifts in the earth's climate have resulted in more extreme weather events, like stronger hurricanes. Such powerful storms disrupt societal function and result in a tremendous number of casualties, as demonstrated by recent hurricane experience in the US Planning for and facilitating evacuations of populations forecast to be impacted by hurricanes is perhaps the most effective strategy for reducing risk. A potentially important yet relatively unexplored facet of people's evacuation decision-making involves the interpersonal communication processes that affect whether at-risk residents decide to evacuate. While previous research has suggested that word-of-mouth effects are limited, data supporting these assertions were collected prior to the widespread adoption of digital social media technologies. This paper argues that the influence of social network effects on evacuation decisions should be revisited given the potential of new social media for impacting and augmenting information dispersion through real-time interpersonal communication. Using geographic data within an agent-based model of hurricane evacuation in Bay County, Florida, we examine how various types of social networks influence participation in evacuation. It is found that strategies for encouraging evacuation should consider the social networks influencing individuals during extreme events, as it can be used to increase the number of evacuating residents.

A Numerical Investigation of Hurricane Induced Water Level Fluctuactions in Lake Okeechobee. Report 1. Forecasting and Design.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-06-01

compute BI and B2, (u T, v T (Pv P) (H H ) T Tv u v and (FT, F ) must be determined. We discuss the determination of theseU V terms in turn below. Finite...in the Planetary Boundary Layer of a Moving Tropical Cyclone, Masters Thesis , New York University, Department of Meteorology, New York, N.Y., pp 58. 12

Inner-core Vacillation Cycles during the Intensification of Hurricane Katrina

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-01

symmetric overturning circulation draws air from outer radii above the boundary layer while conserving absolute angular momentum. This symmetric...azimuthal momentum by the mean overturning circulation . The resulting increase in the vertical shear of the azimuthal-mean tangential wind that develops in... meridional circulation in a circular vortex. Astrophysica Norvegica 5: 19–60. Elsberry R, Frank W, Holland G, Jarrel J, Southern R. 1987. A Global

Variability in Hurricane Boundary Layer Characteristics Observed in a Long-Term Noaa Dropsonde Archive

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

storm-relative coordinate transformation; each green circle represents the Ziemba (2013) estimate of ix dropsonde position. A thick red vector...LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Specifications and estimated operational performance of the NCAR GPS dropsonde (from Ziemba 2013; after H99...BLANK 16 III. DATA AND METHODOLOGY A. THE NCAR GPS DROPSONDE Recent observational studies of tropical cyclones (e.g., Z11; Ziemba 2013) have

Attenuation of Storm Surge Flooding By Wetlands in the Chesapeake Bay: An Integrated Geospatial Framework Evaluating Impacts to Critical Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalid, A.; Haddad, J.; Lawler, S.; Ferreira, C.

2014-12-01

Areas along the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries are extremely vulnerable to hurricane flooding, as evidenced by the costly effects and severe impacts of recent storms along the Virginia coast, such as Hurricane Isabel in 2003 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Coastal wetlands, in addition to their ecological importance, are expected to mitigate the impact of storm surge by acting as a natural protection against hurricane flooding. Quantifying such interactions helps to provide a sound scientific basis to support planning and decision making. Using storm surge flooding from various historical hurricanes, simulated using a coupled hydrodynamic wave model (ADCIRC-SWAN), we propose an integrated framework yielding a geospatial identification of the capacity of Chesapeake Bay wetlands to protect critical infrastructure. Spatial identification of Chesapeake Bay wetlands is derived from the National Wetlands Inventory (NWI), National Land Cover Database (NLCD), and the Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP). Inventories of population and critical infrastructure are extracted from US Census block data and FEMA's HAZUS-Multi Hazard geodatabase. Geospatial and statistical analyses are carried out to develop a relationship between wetland land cover, hurricane flooding, population and infrastructure vulnerability. These analyses result in the identification and quantification of populations and infrastructure in flooded areas that lie within a reasonable buffer surrounding the identified wetlands. Our analysis thus produces a spatial perspective on the potential for wetlands to attenuate hurricane flood impacts in critical areas. Statistical analysis will support hypothesis testing to evaluate the benefits of wetlands from a flooding and storm-surge attenuation perspective. Results from geospatial analysis are used to identify where interactions with critical infrastructure are relevant in the Chesapeake Bay.

Development of a global river-coastal coupling model and its application to flood simulation in Asian mega-delta regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip; Verlaan, Martin; Winsemius, Hessel; Kanae, Shinjiro

2017-04-01

The world's mega-delta regions and estuaries are susceptible to various water-related disasters, such as river flooding and storm surge. Moreover, simultaneous occurrence of them would be more devastating than a situation where they occur in isolation. Therefore, it is important to provide information about compound risks of fluvial and coastal floods at a large scale, both their statistical dependency as well as their combined resulting flooding in delta regions. Here we report on a first attempt to address this issue globally by developing a method to couple a global river model (CaMa-Flood) and a global tide and surge reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. A state-of-the-art global river routing model, CaMa-Flood, was modified to represent varying sea levels due to tides and storm surges as downstream boundary condition, and the GTSR dataset was post-processed to serve as inputs to the CaMa-Flood river routing simulation and a long-term simulation was performed to incorporate the temporal dependency between coastal tide and surge on the one hand, and discharge on the other. The coupled model was validated against observations, showing better simulation results of water levels in deltaic regions than simulation without GTSR. For example in the Ganges Delta, correlation coefficients were increased by 0.06, and root mean square errors were reduced by 0.22 m. Global coupling simulations revealed that storm surges affected river water levels in coastal regions worldwide, especially in low-lying flat areas with increases in water level larger than 0.5 m. By employing enhanced storm surge simulation with tropical storm tracks, we also applied the model to examine impacts of past hurricane and cyclone storm events on river flood inundation.

Incorporating TPC observed parameters and QuikSCAT surface wind observations into hurricane initialization using 4D-VAR approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Kyungjeen

This study aims to develop an objective hurricane initialization scheme which incorporates not only forecast model constraints but also observed features such as the initial intensity and size. It is based on the four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme originally proposed by Zou and Xiao (1999). The 4D-Var BDA consists of two steps: (i) specifying a bogus sea level pressure (SLP) field based on parameters observed by the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) and (ii) assimilating the bogus SLP field under a forecast model constraint to adjust all model variables. This research focuses on improving the specification of the bogus SLP indicated in the first step. Numerical experiments are carried out for Hurricane Bonnie (1998) and Hurricane Gordon (2000) to test the sensitivity of hurricane track and intensity forecasts to specification of initial vortex. Major results are listed below: (1) A linear regression model is developed for determining the size of initial vortex based on the TPC observed radius of 34kt. (2) A method is proposed to derive a radial profile of SLP from QuikSCAT surface winds. This profile is shown to be more realistic than ideal profiles derived from Fujita's and Holland's formulae. (3) It is found that it takes about 1 h for hurricane prediction model to develop a conceptually correct hurricane structure, featuring a dominant role of hydrostatic balance at the initial time and a dynamic adjustment in less than 30 minutes. (4) Numerical experiments suggest that track prediction is less sensitive to the specification of initial vortex structure than intensity forecast. (5) Hurricane initialization using QuikSCAT-derived initial vortex produced a reasonably good forecast for hurricane landfall, with a position error of 25 km and a 4-h delay at landfalling. (6) Numerical experiments using the linear regression model for the size specification considerably outperforms all the other formulations tested in terms of the intensity prediction for both Hurricanes. For examples, the maximum track error is less than 110 km during the entire three-day forecasts for both hurricanes. The simulated Hurricane Gordon using the linear regression model made a nearly perfect landfall, with no position error and only 1-h error in landfalling time. (7) Diagnosis of model output indicates that the initial vortex specified by the linear regression model produces larger surface fluxes of sensible heat, latent heat and moisture, as well as stronger downward angular momentum transport than all the other schemes do. These enhanced energy supplies offset the energy lost caused by friction and gravity wave propagation, allowing for the model to maintain a strong and realistic hurricane during the entire forward model integration.

New, Improved Goddard Bulk-Microphysical Schemes for Studying Precipitation Processes in WRF

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2007-01-01

An improved bulk microphysical parameterization is implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting ()VRF) model. This bulk microphysical scheme has three different options, 2ICE (cloud ice & snow), 3ICE-graupel (cloud ice, snow & graupel) and 3ICE-hail (cloud ice, snow & hail). High-resolution model simulations are conducted to examine the impact of microphysical schemes on two different weather events (a midlatitude linear convective system and an Atlantic hurricane). The results suggest that microphysics has a major impact on the organization and precipitation processes associated with a summer midlatitude convective line system. The Goddard 3ICE scheme with a cloud ice-snow-hail configuration agreed better with observations in terms of rainfall intensity and a narrow convective line than did simulations with a cloud ice-snow-graupel or cloud ice-snow (i.e., 2ICE) configuration. This is because the 3ICE-hail scheme includes dense ice precipitating (hail) particle with very fast fall speed (over 10 in For an Atlantic hurricane case, the Goddard microphysical schemes had no significant impact on the track forecast but did affect the intensity slightly. The improved Goddard schemes are also compared with WRF's three other 3ICE bulk microphysical schemes: WSM6, Purdue-Lin and Thompson. For the summer midlatitude convective line system, all of the schemes resulted in simulated precipitation events that were elongated in the southwest-northeast direction in qualitative agreement with the observed feature. However, the Goddard 3ICE scheme with the hail option and the Thompson scheme agree better with observations in terms of rainfall intensity, expect that the Goddard scheme simulated more heavy rainfall (over 48 mm/h). For the Atlantic hurricane case, none of the schemes had a significant impact on the track forecast; however, the simulated intensity using the Purdue-Lin scheme was much stronger than the other schemes. The vertical distributions of model simulated cloud species (i.e., snow) are quite sensitive to microphysical schemes, which is an important issue for future verification against satellite retrievals. Both the Purdue-Lin and WSM6 schemes simulated very little snow compared to the other schemes for both the midlatitude convective line and hurricane cases. Sensitivity tests are performed for these two WRF schemes to identify that snow productions could be increased by increasing the snow intercept, turning off the auto-conversion from snow to graupel and reducing the transfer processes from cloud-sized particles to precipitation-sized ice.

Studying Precipitation Processes in WRF with Goddard Bulk Microphysics in Comparison with Other Microphysical Schemes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.K.; Shi, J.J.; Braun, S.; Simpson, J.; Chen, S.S.; Lang, S.; Hong, S.Y.; Thompson, G.; Peters-Lidard, C.

2009-01-01

A Goddard bulk microphysical parameterization is implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This bulk microphysical scheme has three different options, 2ICE (cloud ice & snow), 3ICE-graupel (cloud ice, snow & graupel) and 3ICE-hail (cloud ice, snow & hail). High-resolution model simulations are conducted to examine the impact of microphysical schemes on different weather events: a midlatitude linear convective system and an Atlantic hurricane. The results suggest that microphysics has a major impact on the organization and precipitation processes associated with a summer midlatitude convective line system. The Goddard 3ICE scheme with the cloud ice-snow-hail configuration agreed better with observations ill of rainfall intensity and having a narrow convective line than did simulations with the cloud ice-snow-graupel and cloud ice-snow (i.e., 2ICE) configurations. This is because the Goddard 3ICE-hail configuration has denser precipitating ice particles (hail) with very fast fall speeds (over 10 m/s) For an Atlantic hurricane case, the Goddard microphysical scheme (with 3ICE-hail, 3ICE-graupel and 2ICE configurations) had no significant impact on the track forecast but did affect the intensity slightly. The Goddard scheme is also compared with WRF's three other 3ICE bulk microphysical schemes: WSM6, Purdue-Lin and Thompson. For the summer midlatitude convective line system, all of the schemes resulted in simulated precipitation events that were elongated in southwest-northeast direction in qualitative agreement with the observed feature. However, the Goddard 3ICE-hail and Thompson schemes were closest to the observed rainfall intensities although the Goddard scheme simulated more heavy rainfall (over 48 mm/h). For the Atlantic hurricane case, none of the schemes had a significant impact on the track forecast; however, the simulated intensity using the Purdue-Lin scheme was much stronger than the other schemes. The vertical distributions of model-simulated cloud species (e.g., snow) are quite sensitive to the microphysical schemes, which is an issue for future verification against satellite retrievals. Both the Purdue-Lin and WSM6 schemes simulated very little snow compared to the other schemes for both the midlatitude convective line and hurricane case. Sensitivity tests with these two schemes showed that increasing the snow intercept, turning off the auto-conversion from snow to graupel, eliminating dry growth, and reducing the transfer processes from cloud-sized particles to precipitation-sized ice collectively resulted in a net increase in those schemes' snow amounts.

Upper Ocean Response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) from Multi-sensor Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gierach, M. M.; Bulusu, S.

2006-12-01

Analysis of satellite observations and model simulations of the mixed layer provided an opportunity to assess the biological and physical effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) in the Gulf of Mexico. Oceanic cyclonic circulation was intensified by the hurricanes' wind field, maximizing upwelling, surface cooling, and deepening the mixed layer. Two areas of maximum surface chlorophyll-a concentration and sea surface cooling were detected with peak intensities ranging from 2-3 mg m-3 and 4-6°C, along the tracks of Katrina and Rita. The temperature of the mixed layer cooled approximately 2°C and the depth of the mixed layer deepened by approximately 33-52 m. The forced deepening of the mixed layer injected nutrients into the euphotic zone, generating phytoplankton blooms 3-5 days after the passage of Katrina and Rita (2005).

Warm-Core Intensification Through Horizontal Eddy Heat Transports into the Eye

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Fulton, John; Nolan, David S.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The mechanism for the formation and intensification of the hurricane warm core is not well understood. The generally accepted explanation is that the warm core forms as a result of gentle subsidence of air within the eye that warms as a result of adiabatic compression. Malkus suggested that this subsidence is part of a deep circulation in which air begins descent at high levels in the eye, acquires cyclonic angular momentum as it descends to lower levels, and then diverges at low levels, where it is entrained back into the eyewall. Inward mixing from the eyewall is hypothesized to force the subsidence and maintain the moisture and momentum budgets of the subsiding air. Willoughby suggested that air within the eye has remained so since it was first enclosed during the formation of the eyewall and that it subsides at most only a few kilometers rather than through the depth of the troposphere. He relates the subsidence to the low-level divergence and entrainment into the eyewall noted by Malkus, but suggests that shrinkage of the eye's volume is more than adequate to account for the air lost to the eyewall or converted to cloudy air by turbulent mixing across the eye boundary. Smith offered an alternative view of the subsidence forcing, suggesting that vertical motion in a mature hurricane eye is generated largely by imbalances between the downward vertical pressure gradient force and the upward buoyancy force. The vertical pressure gradient force is associated with the decay and/or radial spread of the tangential wind field with height at those levels were the winds are in approximate gradient wind balance. The rate of subsidence is just that required to warm the air sufficiently such that the buoyancy remains in close hydrostatic balance with an increasing vertical pressure gradient force. In this study, a very high-resolution simulation of Hurricane Bob using a cloud-resolving grid scale of 1.3 km is used to examine the heat budget within the storm with particular emphasis on the mechanisms for warming of the eye.

Discriminants and Detectors: Seismological Studies of Tsunami Earthquakes and Hurricane Microseisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebeling, Carl W.

High energy natural hazards have potential to cause great damage and significant loss of life, but understanding of many lags behind what is required to mitigate their impacts. Of specific concern here are the estimation of tsunami hazard in the eastern Mediterranean; the more timely identification of tsunami earthquakes; and the use of microseisms to identify “missing” hurricanes, thus augmenting the traditional—but short, incomplete, and biased—observational hurricane record. Earthquake energy estimation and time- and frequency-domain time-series analyses applied to an array of historical analog and modern digital seismological data are used to address these problems. Improved estimations of the location, depth, moment magnitude, and focal mechanism of four of the largest Hellenic Arc earthquakes in the last century help to better understand seismic hazard there. Seismological reassessments combined with hydrodynamic simulations show that the tsunamis associated with two of them were not triggered by the earthquakes themselves but instead involved submarine slumping. Moments and estimates of radiated energy from 67 earthquakes taking place in the last twenty years in oceanic environments and recorded at regional and teleseismic distances are used to develop an empirical correction to the robust tsunami earthquake discriminant Theta. This extends its applicability to regional distances, thereby allowing earlier discrimination of tsunami earthquakes. Microseisms, which result from the interaction of ocean swell generated by energetic storms, are shown here to carry information about parent hurricanes and under favorable conditions can be used to detect them. Power variations of microseisms recorded at the Harvard, Massachusetts seismic station demonstrate that Saffir-Simpson category 5 hurricane Andrew (1992) can be identified when it is ˜2,000 km from the station and still at sea. Applied to an expanded data set of 66 hurricanes between 1992 and 2007 with Saffir-Simpson categories ranging from 2 to 5, microseism power and frequency content analyses indicate that some additional energetic hurricanes can be detected. However, because these methods detect even the most intense hurricanes inconsistently and do not reject non-hurricane storms, a robust detection methodology cannot be based on them alone. These methods do have the potential to improve understanding of the microseism wavefield in general.

Non-monotonous dependence of the ocean surface drag coefficient on the hurricane wind speed due to the fragmentation of the ocean-atmosphere interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troitskaya, Yu. I.; Ermakova, O. S.; Kandaurov, A. A.; Kozlov, D. S.; Sergeev, D. A.; Zilitinkevich, S. S.

2017-11-01

Influence of the spray generation due to the fragmentation of the "bag-breakup" type on momentum exchange in the atmospheric boundary layer above the sea surface at hurricane winds was investigated on the basis of the analysis of the results of laboratory experiments. It was shown that aerodynamic drag is determined by the contribution of three factors: first, the drag of the "bag-breakup" canopies as obstacles; second, acceleration of the spray formed during fragmentation by the air flow; and the third factor is related to the stratification of the near-water atmospheric layer due to the presence of levitated water droplets. Combination of all three factors leads to a non-monotonous dependence of the aerodynamic drag coefficient on wind speed, which confirms the results of the field and laboratory measurements.

Assessing extreme sea levels due to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Lin, Ning; Verlaan, Martin; Winsemius, Hessel; Vatvani, Deepak; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, are characterised by high wind speeds and low pressure and cause dangerous storm surges in coastal areas. Over the last 50 years, storm surge incidents in the Atlantic accounted for more than 1,000 deaths in the United Stated. Recent flooding disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005 and, Hurricane Sandy in New York in 2012, exemplify the significant TC surge risk in the United States. In this contribution, we build on Muis et al. (2016), and present a new modelling framework to simulate TC storm surges and estimate their probabilities for the Atlantic basin. In our framework we simulate the surge levels by forcing the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) with wind and pressure fields from TC events. To test the method, we apply it to historical storms that occurred between 1988 and 2015 in the Atlantic Basin. We obtain high-resolution meteorological forcing by applying a parametric hurricane model (Holland 1980; Lin and Chavas 2012) to the TC extended track data set (Demuth et al. 2006; updated), which describes the position, intensity and size of the historical TCs. Preliminary results show that this framework is capable of accurately reproducing the main surge characteristics during past events, including Sandy and Katrina. While the resolution of GTSM is limited for local areas with a complex bathymetry, the overall performance of the model is satisfactory for the basin-scale application. For an accurate assessment of risk to coastal flooding in the Atlantic basin it is essential to provide reliable estimates of surge probabilities. However, the length of observed TC tracks is too short to accurately estimate the probabilities of extreme TC events. So next steps are to statistically extend the observed record to many thousands of years (e.g., Emanuel et al. 2006), in order to force GTSM with a large number of synthetic storms. Based on these synthetic simulations, we would be able to provide reliable probabilities of surge levels for the entire Atlantic basin. References Demuth, J., DeMaria, M., and Knaff, J.A. (2006). Improvement of advanced microwave sounder unit tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithms. Journal of Applied Meteorology., 45, pp. 1573-1581. Emanuel, K., Ravela, S., Vivant, E. and Risi, C. (2006). A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(3), pp.299-314. Holland, G.J. (1980). An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Monthly Weather Review, 108(8), pp.1212-1218. Lin, N. and D. Chavas (2012). On hurricane parametric wind and applications in storm surge modeling. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. 117. doi:10.1029/2011jd017126. Muis, S., Verlaan, M., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., & Ward, P. J. (2016). A global reanalysis of storm surge and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications, 7(7:11969), 1-11.

A Single-Radar Technique for Estimating the Winds in Tropical Cyclones.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuttle, John; Gall, Robert

1999-04-01

A method for determining horizontal wind speeds in hurricanes using ground-based radars is presented and evaluated. The method makes use of the tracking reflectivity echos by correlation (TREC) method where individual features in radar reflectivity are tracked, from radar sweeps several minutes apart, by finding the maxima in the cross-correlation function between the two times. This method has been applied successfully in determining motions within the clear boundary layer where reflectors are insects and refractive index variations, but it generally has failed when applied to determining air motions by tracking precipitation elements in strong environmental shear. It appears to work in the lower few kilometers of the hurricane where the vertical wind shear is relatively weak.Examples are presented where the TREC algorithm is applied to three landfalling hurricanes: Hurricanes Hugo and Erin in the United States and Typhoon Herb in Taiwan. The results from Hugo, where the radar data were provided by a WSR-57, were compared to in situ wind measurements by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration P-3 research aircraft. In Erin and Herb, Doppler radar data are available and the radial winds (with respect to the radar) computed by TREC could be compared.The results were very promising. In Hugo, the agreement between the TREC analysis and the aircraft winds was generally to within 10%. In Erin and Herb less than 20% of the difference between radial-Doppler wind estimations by TREC and the actual Doppler wind measurements was greater than 5 m s-1. When Herb was closer to the radar, however, the error rates were much higher due to the interference of ground clutter.TREC promises to provide a quick and reasonably accurate method for continuously computing fully two-dimensional winds from land-based radars as hurricanes approach the coast. Such information would complement that provided by Doppler radars where it could estimate the tangential component to the radar that is not observed using Doppler radar techniques, and it can provide useful wind information from reflectivity beyond the more limited range where the Doppler velocities can be determined. It can also retrieve wind information in hurricanes from conventional radar data.

Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

2017-12-01

An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation to be amplified. The relative importance of the ocean warming versus the SLR was evaluated. Keywords: Hurricane Matthew, Global Warming, Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model, Air-Sea interactions, Storm Surge, Inundation

Re-examining the roles of surface heat flux and latent heat release in a "hurricane-like" polar low over the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolstad, Erik W.; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Zahn, Matthias

2016-07-01

Polar lows are intense mesoscale cyclones that occur at high latitudes in both hemispheres during winter. Their sometimes evidently convective nature, fueled by strong surface fluxes and with cloud-free centers, have led to some polar lows being referred to as "arctic hurricanes." Idealized studies have shown that intensification by hurricane development mechanisms is theoretically possible in polar winter atmospheres, but the lack of observations and realistic simulations of actual polar lows have made it difficult to ascertain if this occurs in reality. Here the roles of surface heat fluxes and latent heat release in the development of a Barents Sea polar low, which in its cloud structures showed some similarities to hurricanes, are studied with an ensemble of sensitivity experiments, where latent heating and/or surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat were switched off before the polar low peaked in intensity. To ensure that the polar lows in the sensitivity runs did not track too far away from the actual environmental conditions, a technique known as spectral nudging was applied. This was shown to be crucial for enabling comparisons between the different model runs. The results presented here show that (1) no intensification occurred during the mature, postbaroclinic stage of the simulated polar low; (2) surface heat fluxes, i.e., air-sea interaction, were crucial processes both in order to attain the polar low's peak intensity during the baroclinic stage and to maintain its strength in the mature stage; and (3) latent heat release played a less important role than surface fluxes in both stages.

Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) Simulated with a Global Mesoscale Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Bo-Wen; DeMaria, Mark; Li, J.-L. F.; Cheung, S.

2013-01-01

In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22-26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16-18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21-23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low-level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper-level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low-level WWB and upper-level trough are likely associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation.

Sensitivity of Hurricane Storm Surge to Land Cover and Topography Under Various Sea Level Rise Scenarios Along the Mississippi Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.

2013-12-01

Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclone conditions. Literature suggests with 'very high confidence that global sea level will rise at least 0.2 m and no more than 2.0 m by 2011' (Donoghue, 2011; Parris et al., 2012). Further, it is recognized that the Mississippi barrier islands are highly susceptible to a westward migration and retreating shoreline. With predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms, rising sea levels, and a changing landscape, it is important to understand how these changes may affect inundation extent and flooding due to hurricane storm surge. A state-of-the-art SWAN+ADCIRC hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past (1960) and future (2050) sea level changes were simulated. In addition to altering the initial sea state, land use land cover (LULC) was modified for 1960 and 2050 based on historic data and future projections. LULC datasets are used to derive surface roughness characteristics, such as Manning's n, and wind reduction factors. The topography along the barrier islands and near the Pascagoula River, MS was also altered to reflect the 1960 landscape. Storm surge sensitivity to topographic change were addressed by comparing model results between two 1960 storm surge simulations; one with current topography and a second with changes to the barrier islands. In addition, model responses to changes in LULC are compared. The results will be used to gain insight into adapting present day storm surge models for future conditions. References Donoghue, J. (2011). Sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast and sea level rise scenarios for the near future. Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0077-x Parris, A., Bromirski, P., Burkett, V., Cayan, D., Culver, M., Hall, J., . . . Weiss, J. (2012). Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1 (pp. 37). Resio, D. T. (2007). White paper on estimating hurricane inundation probabilities (pp. 125). Vicksburg, MS: U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center.

Comparison of Coastal Inundation in the Outer Banks during Three Recent Hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, T.; Sheng, Y.

2012-12-01

Coastal inundation in the Outer Banks and Chesapeake Bay during several recent hurricanes - Isabel, Earl and Irene, in 2005, 2010 and 2011, respectively, have been successfully simulated using the storm surge modeling system, CH3D-SSMS, which includes coupled coastal and basin-scale storm surge and wave models. Hurricane Isabel, which made landfall at the Outer Banks area in 2005, generated high waves up to 20 m offshore and 2.5 m inside the Chesapeake Bay which significantly affected the peak surge, with wave induced set-up contributing up to about 20% of the peak surge. During Isabel, the observed wave height at Duck station (1 km offshore) reached over 6 meters at landfall time, while Earl and Irene generated relatively moderate waves, with peak wave height around 4 meters at that station but a much lower wave height before landfall. Simulations show that during Earl and Irene, wave induced set-up did not contribute as much as that during Isabel. At Duck Pier, wave effects accounted for ~36 cm or 20% of the peak surge of 1.71 m during Isabel, while waves contributed ~10 cm (10%) toward the peak surge of 1 m during Irene and even less during Earl. The maximum surge during Irene was largely caused by the strong wind, as confirmed by the model using H* wind. Inundation maps have been generated and compared based on the simulations of Isabel, Earl and Irene.

Hurricane Sandy Economic Impacts Assessment: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boero, Riccardo; Edwards, Brian Keith

Economists use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to assess how economies react and self-organize after changes in policies, technology, and other exogenous shocks. CGE models are equation-based, empirically calibrated, and inspired by Neoclassical economic theory. The focus of this work was to validate the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) CGE model and apply it to the problem of assessing the economic impacts of severe events. We used the 2012 Hurricane Sandy event as our validation case. In particular, this work first introduces the model and then describes the validation approach and the empirical data available for studying themore » event of focus. Shocks to the model are then formalized and applied. Finally, model results and limitations are presented and discussed, pointing out both the model degree of accuracy and the assessed total damage caused by Hurricane Sandy.« less

A Storm Surge and Inundation Model of the Back River Watershed at NASA Langley Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loftis, Jon Derek; Wang, Harry V.; DeYoung, Russell J.

2013-01-01

This report on a Virginia Institute for Marine Science project demonstrates that the sub-grid modeling technology (now as part of Chesapeake Bay Inundation Prediction System, CIPS) can incorporate high-resolution Lidar measurements provided by NASA Langley Research Center into the sub-grid model framework to resolve detailed topographic features for use as a hydrological transport model for run-off simulations within NASA Langley and Langley Air Force Base. The rainfall over land accumulates in the ditches/channels resolved via the model sub-grid was tested to simulate the run-off induced by heavy precipitation. Possessing both the capabilities for storm surge and run-off simulations, the CIPS model was then applied to simulate real storm events starting with Hurricane Isabel in 2003. It will be shown that the model can generate highly accurate on-land inundation maps as demonstrated by excellent comparison of the Langley tidal gauge time series data (CAPABLE.larc.nasa.gov) and spatial patterns of real storm wrack line measurements with the model results simulated during Hurricanes Isabel (2003), Irene (2011), and a 2009 Nor'easter. With confidence built upon the model's performance, sea level rise scenarios from the ICCP (International Climate Change Partnership) were also included in the model scenario runs to simulate future inundation cases.

WRF Simulation of the Genesis of Hurricane Javier (2004) in the Eastern Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.

2005-01-01

The Eastern Pacific has the highest frequency of genesis events per unit area of any region worldwide (Elsberry et al 1987). African easterly waves, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and topographic effects are thought to play roles in the genesis of tropical cyclones there (Frank and Clark 1980, Velasco and Fritsch 1987, Zehnder 1991, Zehnder and Gall 1991; Farfan and Zehnder 1997). Mozer and Zehnder (1996), using dry, idealized simulations of flow past a large-scale three-dimensional mountain range comparable to the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico, showed that upstream flow blocking led to diversion of the flow primarily to the south of the mountains. This flow diversion led to the formation of a low-level, barotropically unstable jet (at a location comparable to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec) and the continuous formation of synoptic-scale vorticity maxima, which they suggested may play a role in tropical cyclogenesis. Farfan and Zehnder (1 997) examined the synoptic-scale circulations that led to the formation of Hurricane Guillermo (1991). Using numerical simulations, they found that flow blocking led to the formation of a low-level easterly jet south of the mountains of Central America and a northeasterly (gap flow) jet over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which combined with the flow associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to produce a closed cyclonic circulation in the location of Guillermo s formation. As will be discussed in this paper, the evolution of the flow field that was associated with the genesis of Hurricane Javier was similar to that described in Farfan and Zehnder (1997), with well-defined topographic flow features. Here, using a high- resolution simulation with the WRF model, we investigate whether these topographically induced flows played a significant role in the genesis of Javier.

Data Assimilation Cycling for Weather Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tran, Nam; Li, Yongzuo; Fitzpatrick, Patrick

2008-01-01

This software package runs the atmospheric model MM5 in data assimilation cycling mode to produce an optimized weather analysis, including the ability to insert or adjust a hurricane vortex. The program runs MM5 through a cycle of short forecasts every three hours where the vortex is adjusted to match the observed hurricane location and storm intensity. This technique adjusts the surrounding environment so that the proper steering current and environmental shear are achieved. MM5cycle uses a Cressman analysis to blend observation into model fields to get a more accurate weather analysis. Quality control of observations is also done in every cycle to remove bad data that may contaminate the analysis. This technique can assimilate and propagate data in time from intermittent and infrequent observations while maintaining the atmospheric field in a dynamically balanced state. The software consists of a C-shell script (MM5cycle.driver) and three FORTRAN programs (splitMM5files.F, comRegrid.F, and insert_vortex.F), and are contained in the pre-processor component of MM5 called "Regridder." The model is first initialized with data from a global model such as the Global Forecast System (GFS), which also provides lateral boundary conditions. These data are separated into single-time files using splitMM5.F. The hurricane vortex is then bogussed in the correct location and with the correct wind field using insert_vortex.F. The modified initial and boundary conditions are then recombined into the model fields using comRegrid.F. The model then makes a three-hour forecast. The three-hour forecast data from MM5 now become the analysis for the next short forecast run, where the vortex will again be adjusted. The process repeats itself until the desired time of analysis is achieved. This code can also assimilate observations if desired.

Storm Surge Simulation and Ensemble Forecast for Hurricane Irene (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

2012-12-01

Hurricane Irene, raking the U.S. East Coast during the period of 26-30 August 2011, caused widespread damage estimated at $15.8 billion and was responsible for 49 direct deaths (Avila and Cangialosi, 2011). Although the most severe impact in the northeastern U.S. was catastrophic inland flooding, with its unusually large size, Irene also generated high waves and storm surges and caused moderate to major coastal flooding. The most severe surge damage occurred between Oregon Inlet and Cape Hatteras in North Carolina (NC). Significant storm surge damage also occurred along southern Chesapeake Bay, and moderate and high surges were observed along the coast from New Jersey (NJ) northward. A storm surge of 0.9-1.8 m caused hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage in New York City (NYC) and Long Island, despite the fact that the storm made landfall to the west of NYC with peak winds of no more than tropical storm strength. Making three U.S. landfalls (in NC, NJ, and NY), Hurricane Irene provides a unique case for studying storm surge along the eastern U.S. coastline. We apply the hydrodynamic model ADCIRC (Luettich et al. 1992) to conduct surge simulations for Pamlico Sound, Chesapeake Bay, and NYC, using best track data and parametric wind and pressure models. The results agree well with tidal-gauge observations. Then we explore a new methodology for storm surge ensemble forecasting and apply it to Irene. This method applies a statistical/deterministic hurricane model (Emanuel et al. 2006) to generate large numbers of storm ensembles under the storm environment described by the 51 ECMWF ensemble members. The associated surge ensembles are then generated with the ADCIRC model. The numerical simulation is computationally efficient, making the method applicable to real-time storm surge ensemble forecasting. We report the results for NYC in this presentation. The ADCIRC simulation using the best track data generates a storm surge of 1.3 m and a storm tide of 2.1 m at the Battery, NYC, which agree well with the observed storm surge of 1.33 m and storm tide of 2.12 m, although the simulated surge arrives about 2 hours earlier than the observed. Based on the surge climatology estimated by Lin et al. (2012), Hurricane Irene's storm surge is approximately a 60-year event for NYC, but its storm tide, with the surge happening right at the high astronomical tide, is a 100-year event. Lin et al. (2012) also projected that such 100-year storm tide events might occur on average every 3-20 years by the end of the century, under the IPCC A1B emission scenario and a 1-m sea level rise. The ensemble forecasting, starting from two and one days (each with 1000 ensembles) before Irene's first landfall in NC, shows that Irene's actual storm surge at the Battery had a chance of about 9% and 10% to be exceeded, respectively. The largest surges among the two ensemble sets are 2.28 m and 2.05 m, respectively. If happening at the high tide, as with Hurricane Irene, the worst-case storm tides would be about 3-3.2 m, similar to the highest historical water level at the Battery due to a hurricane in 1821. Lin et al. (2012) estimated that such a storm tide of about 3.1 m had a return period of about 500 years under current climate conditions, but the return period might become 25-240 years by the end of the century, under the IPCC A1B emission scenario and a 1-m sea level rise.

Hurricane Wind Field Measurements with Scanning Airborne Doppler Lidar During CAMEX-3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rothermel, Jeffry; Cutten, D. R.; Howell, J. N.; Darby, L. S.; Hardesty, R. M.; Traff, D. M.; Menzies, R. T.

2000-01-01

During the 1998 Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3), the first hurricane wind field measurements with Doppler lidar were achieved. Wind fields were mapped within the eye, along the eyewall, in the central dense overcast, and in the marine boundary layer encompassing the inflow region. Spatial coverage was determined primarily by cloud distribution and opacity. Within optically-thin cirrus slant range of 20- 25 km was achieved, whereas no propagation was obtained during penetration of dense cloud. Measurements were obtained with the Multi-center Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor (MACAWS) on the NASA DC-8 research aircraft. MACAWS was developed and operated cooperatively by the atmospheric lidar remote sensing groups of NOAA Environmental Technology Laboratory, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, and Jet Propulsion Laboratory. A pseudo-dual Doppler technique ("co-planar scanning") is used to map the horizontal component of the wind at several vertical levels. Pulses from the laser are directed out the left side of the aircraft in the desired directions using computer-controlled rotating prisms. Upon exiting the aircraft, the beam is completely eyesafe. Aircraft attitude and speed are taken into account during real-time signal processing, resulting in determination of the ground-relative wind to an accuracy of about 1 m/s magnitude and about 10 deg direction. Beam pointing angle errors are about 0.1 deg, equivalent to about 17 m at 10 km. Horizontal resolution is about 1 km (along-track) for typical signal processor and scanner settings; vertical resolution varies with range. Results from CAMEX-3 suggest that scanning Doppler wind lidar can complement airborne Doppler radar by providing wind field measurements in regions that are devoid of hydrometeors. At present MACAWS observations are being assimilated into experimental forecast models and satellite Doppler wind lidar simulations to evaluate the relative impact.

Hydrology and hydraulics of Cypress Creek watershed, Texas during Hurricane Harvey and Impact of Potential Mitigation Measures.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Hassan, A.; Fares, A.; Risch, E.

2017-12-01

Rain resulting from Hurricane Harvey stated to spread into Harris County late in August 25 and continued until August 31 2017. This high intensity rainfall caused catastrophic flooding across the Greater Houston Area and south Texas. The objectives of this study are to use the USACE Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis model (GSSHA) to: i) simulate the hydrology and hydraulics of Cypress Creek watershed and quantify the impact of hurricane Harvey on it; and ii) test potential mitigation measures, e.g., construction of a third surface reservoir on the flooding and hydrology of this watershed. Cypress Creek watershed area is 733 km2. Simulations were conducted using precipitation from two sources a) the Multisensory Precipitation Estimator radar products (MPE) and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system. Streamflow was downloaded from the USGS gauge at the outlet of the watershed. The models performance using both precipitation data was very reasonable. The construction of an 8 m high embankment at the south central part of the watershed resulted in over 22% reduction of the peak flow of the stream and also reduction of the depth of inundation across the east part of the watershed. These and other mitigation scenarios will be further discussed in details during the presentation.

Validation Test Report for the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere MesoscalePrediction System (COAMPS) Version 5.0: Ocean/Wave Component Validation

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-31

RED) TC TRACKS ARE SHOWN. CIRCLES ON BOTH TRACKS REPRESENT HOURLY LOCATIONS OF THE STORM CENTERS. ..................................... 18  FIGURE...conditions such as wave boundary conditions, tides, wind, and storm surge. A quasi-stationary approach is used with stationary SWAN computations in a...Tropical Storm Ivan and continued westward south of 10oN becoming a hurricane on 5 September. After entering the southern Gulf of Mexico (GOM

Risk Quantification for Sustaining Coastal Military Installation Assets and Mission Capabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

Sustaining Coastal Military Assets and 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Mission Capabilities: Final Technical Report 5b. GRANT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Burks-Copes...critical assets system wide: 1) Hurricane winds have been generated using the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) wind model TC96 (Thompson and Cardone 1996...mean air density, pc is pressure representing the tropical cyclone, CD is the drag coefficient, and h is the depth of the PBL (Thompson and Cardone

Modeling Wave Overtopping on the Chandeleur Islands during Hurricane Katrina using XBeach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindemer, C. A.; Plant, N.; Puleo, J.; Thompson, D.

2008-12-01

Tropical cyclones that enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico generate storm surge and large waves that impact low-lying coastlines of along the Gulf Coast. Much of the Gulf Coast is ringed with barrier islands that provide inland marshes and the mainland some protection from storm events. The Chandeleur Islands, are located 161 km east of New Orleans, Louisiana and are oriented from north to south, and act to dissipate some of this energy. After a series of major storm events between 2001 and 2005, Hurricane Katrina's devastation in the fall of 2005 was particularly violent, destroying two-thirds of the area associated with the island chain. We would like to evaluate the predictability of hurricane-induced barrier island erosion and accretion. We test the ability of a time-dependent hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model, XBeach, to predict the impact of Hurricane Katrina on portions of Chandeleur Islands. Pre-storm LIDAR-derived bathymetry/topography and surge and wave data were used to drive a number of XBeach simulations. Model-predicted morphology was compared to post-storm LIDAR data. The accuracy of these predictions, including model sensitivity tests with varying grid size and temporal resolutions, are presented.

Climatic Changes and Consequences on the French West Indies (C3AF), Hurricane and Tsunami Hazards Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnaud, G.; Krien, Y.; Zahibo, N.; Dudon, B.

2017-12-01

Coastal hazards are among the most worrying threats of our time. In a context of climate change coupled to a large population increase, tropical areas could be the most exposed zones of the globe. In such circumstances, understanding the underlying processes can help to better predict storm surges and the associated global risks.Here we present the partial preliminary results integrated in a multidisciplinary project focused on climatic change effects over the coastal threat in the French West Indies and funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The study aims to provide a coastal hazard assessment based on hurricane surge and tsunami modeling including several aspects of climate changes that can affect hazards such as sea level rise, crustal subsidence/uplift, coastline changes etc. Several tsunamis scenarios have been simulated including tele-tsunamis to ensure a large range of tsunami hazards. Surge level of hurricane have been calculated using a large number of synthetic hurricanes to cover the actual and forecasted climate over the tropical area of Atlantic ocean. This hazard assessment will be later coupled with stakes assessed over the territory to provide risk maps.

Hurricane Maria Puerto Rico Landsat Analysis

DOE Data Explorer

Feng, Yanlei; Chambers, Jeff [LBNL; Negron-Juarez, Robinson [LBNL; Patricola, Chris; Clinton, Nick; Uriarte, Maria; Hall, Jaz; Collins, William

2018-01-01

Hurricane Maria made landfall as a strong Category 4 storm in southeast Puerto Rico on September 20th, 2018. The powerful storm traversed the island in a northwesterly direction causing widespread destruction. This study focused on a rapid assessment of Hurricane Marias impact to Puerto Ricos forests. Calibrated and corrected Landsat 8 image composites for the entire island were generated using Google Earth Engine for a comparable pre-Maria and post-Maria time period that accounted for phenology. Spectral mixture analysis (SMA) using image-derived end members was carried out on both composites to calculate the change in the non-photosynthetic vegetation (Delta-NPV) spectral response, a metric that quantifies the increased fraction of exposed wood and surface litter associated with tree mortality and crown damage from the storm. Hurricane simulations were also conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to estimate wind speeds associated with forest disturbance. Dramatic changes in forest structure across the entire island were evident from pre- and post-Maria composited Landsat 8 images. A Delta-NPV map for only the forested pixels illustrated significant spatial variability in disturbance, with patterns that associated with factors such as slope, aspect and elevation. An initial order-of-magnitude impact estimate based on previous work indicated that Hurricane Maria may have caused mortality and severe damage to 23-31 million trees. Additional field work and image analyses are required to further detail the impact of Hurricane Maria to Puerto Rico forests. A minor update to this dataset was posted on April 20, 2018. The previous version is being retired. If you need access to the prior version of the data, email ngee-tropics-archive@lbl.gov.

Hurricanes Ingrid and Manuel (2013) and their impact on the salinity of the Meteoric Water Mass, Quintana Roo, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coutino, Aaron; Stastna, Marek; Kovacs, Shawn; Reinhardt, Eduard

2017-08-01

We report on measurements of the salinity and temperature in the Yax Chen cave system on the Yuacatan peninsula. This paper is submitted together with Kovacs et al. (2017). Kovacs et al. focuses on the salinity levels of the meteoric lens, while this paper uses the observed results to elucidate the hydrodynamics. The cave passages have water depths on the order of 10 m, with flow on the order of ten centimeters a second, and as such is a hydrodynamic, as opposed to a porous, system. The measurements reveal that episodes of significant mixing between the fresh meteoric lens and the underlying salty water are driven by meteorological events (e.g., Hurricane Rina in 2011, and the twin Hurricanes Ingrid and Manuel in 2013). We find evidence that after the hurricanes in 2013, the water column remains unstable for several months. Through wavelet analysis, we find that the marine Water Mass (WM) exhibits much less low period activity compared to the meteoric WM. We hypothesize that the open cenotes are locations of high mixing intensity, with turbulent fronts propagating away from the sites of direct mixing into the cave network. We perform laboratory experiments and numerical simulations to explore this phenomenon, and find that mixing preferentially occurs on the flanks of regions of strong, stable density stratification (i.e., on the periphery of pycnoclines), and leads to entrainment of fluid into the turbulent region. Using high resolution direct numerical simulation, we explore the detailed manner in which turbulent entrainment can drive flow toward the mixing region, and lead to mixing of passive tracers. Finally, we discuss the implications of these results for the mixing of passive tracers, such as suspended chemicals.

Overview of the Field Phase of the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP)Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hood, Robbie E.; Zipser, Edward; Heymsfield, Gerald M.; Kakar, Ramesh; Halverson Jeffery; Rogers, Robert; Black, Michael

2006-01-01

The Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes experiment is sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to investigate characteristics of tropical cyclone genesis, rapid intensification and rainfall using a three-pronged approach that emphasizes satellite information, suborbital observations and numerical model simulations. Research goals include demonstration and assessment of new technology, improvements to numerical model parameterizations, and advancements in data assimilation techniques. The field phase of the experiment was based in Costa Rica during July 2005. A fully instrumented NASA ER-2 high altitude airplane was deployed with Doppler radar, passive microwave instrumentation, lightning and electric field sensors and an airborne simulator of visible and infrared satellite sensors. Other assets brought to TCSP were a low flying uninhabited aerial vehicle, and a surface-based radiosonde network. In partnership with the Intensity Forecasting Experiment of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Research Division, two NOAA P-3 aircraft instrumented with radar, passive microwave, microphysical, and dropsonde instrumentation were also deployed to Costa Rica. The field phase of TCSP was conducted in Costa Rica to take advantage of the geographically compact tropical cyclone genesis region of the Eastern Pacific Ocean near Central America. However, the unusual 2005 hurricane season provided numerous opportunities to sample tropical cyclone development and intensification in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico as well. Development of Hurricane Dennis and Tropical Storm Gert were each investigated over several days in addition to Hurricane Emily as it was close to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 intensity. An overview of the characteristics of these storms along with the pregenesis environment of Tropical Storm Eugene in the Eastern Pacific will be presented.

Comparison of the Effects of RAS vs. Kain-Fritsch Convective Schemes on Katrina Forecasts with GEOS-5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Timothy L.; Cohen, Charles; Paxton, Jessica; Robertson, F. R. (Pete)

2009-01-01

Global forecasts were made with the 0.25-degree latitude version of GEOS-5, with the RAS scheme and with the Kain-Fritsch scheme. Examination was made of the Katrina (2005) hurricane simulation. Replacement of the RAS convective scheme with the K-F scheme results in a much more vigorous Katrina, closer to reality. Still, the result is not as vigorous as reality. In terms of wind maximum, the gap was closed by 50%. The result seems to be due to the RAS scheme drying out the boundary layer, thus hampering the grid-scale secondary circulation and attending cyclone development. The RAS case never developed a full warm core, whereas the K-F case did. Not shown here: The K-F scheme also resulted in a more vigorous storm than when GEOS-5 is run with no convective parameterization. Also not shown: An experiment in which the RAS firing level was moved up by 3 model levels resulted in a stronger, warm-core storm, though not as strong as the K-F case. Effects on storm track were noticed, but not studied.

Modeling possible spreadings of a buoyant surface plume with lagrangian and eulerian approaches at different resolutions using flow syntheses from 1992-2007 - a Gulf of Mexico study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulloch, R.; Hill, C. N.; Jahn, O.

2010-12-01

We present results from an ensemble of BP oil spill simulations. The oil spill slick is modeled as a buoyant surface plume that is transported by ocean currents modulated, in some experiments, by surface winds. Ocean currents are taken from ECCO2 project (see http://ecco2.org ) observationally constrained state estimates spanning 1992-2007. In this work we (i) explore the role of increased resolution of ocean eddies, (ii) compare inferences from particle based, lagrangian, approaches with eulerian, field based, approaches and (ii) examine the impact of differential response of oil particles and water to normal and extreme, hurricane derived, wind stress. We focus on three main questions. Is the simulated response to an oil spill markedly different for different years, depending on ocean circulation and wind forcing? Does the simulated response depend heavily on resolution and are lagrangian and eulerian estimates comparable? We start from two regional configurations of the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm - see http://mitgcm.org ) at 16km and 4km resolutions respectively, both covering the Gulf of Mexico and western North Atlantic regions. The simulations are driven at open boundaries with momentum and hydrographic fields from ECCO2 observationally constrained global circulation estimates. The time dependent surface flow fields from these simulations are used to transport a dye that can optionally decay over time (approximating biological breakdown) and to transport lagrangian particles. Using these experiments we examine the robustness of conclusions regarding the fate of a buoyant slick, injected at a single point. In conclusion we discuss how future drilling operations could use similar approaches to better anticipate outcomes of accidents both in this region and elsewhere.

Coyote unmanned aircraft system observations in Hurricane Edouard (2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cione, J. J.; Kalina, E. A.; Uhlhorn, E. W.; Farber, A. M.; Damiano, B.

2016-09-01

Horizontal wind, temperature, and moisture observations are presented from two Coyote unmanned aircraft system (UAS) flights in the boundary layer of Hurricane Edouard (2014). The first flight sampled the meteorological conditions in the eye and eyewall at altitudes from 900 to 1500 m while Edouard was a major hurricane (105 kt) on 16 September 2014. The following day, a second Coyote sampled the inflow layer outside of the storm core at 760 m altitude, when Edouard had weakened to an 80-kt hurricane. These flights represent the first deployments of a UAS from an airborne manned aircraft into a tropical cyclone. Comparisons between the Coyote data and the Lockheed WP-3D Orion (WP-3D) flight-level measurements and analyses constructed from dropsonde data are also provided. On 16 September 2014, the Coyote-measured horizontal wind speeds agree, on average, to within 1 m s-1 of the wind speeds observed by the WP-3D and reproduce the shape of the radial wind profile from the WP-3D measurements. For the inflow layer experiment on 17 September, the mean wind speeds from the Coyote and the dropsonde analysis differ by only 0.5 m s-1, while the Coyote captured increased variability (σ = 3.4 m s-1) in the horizontal wind field compared to the dropsonde analysis (σ = 2.2 m s-1). Thermodynamic data from the Coyote and dropsondes agree well for both flights, with average discrepancies of 0.4°C and 0.0°C for temperature and 0.7°C and 1.3°C for dew point temperature on 16 and 17 September, respectively

Cloud Height Maps for Hurricanes Frances and Ivan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

NASA's Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) captured these images and cloud-top height retrievals of Hurricane Frances on September 4, 2004, when the eye sat just off the coast of eastern Florida, and Hurricane Ivan on September 5th, after this cyclone had devastated Grenada and was heading toward the central and western Caribbean. Hurricane Frances made landfall in the early hours of September 5, and was downgraded to Tropical Storm status as it swept inland through the Florida panhandle and continued northward. On the heels of Frances is Hurricane Ivan, which is on record as the strongest tropical cyclone to form at such a low latitude in the Atlantic, and was the most powerful hurricane to have hit the Caribbean in nearly a decade.

The ability of forecasters to predict the intensity and amount of rainfall associated with hurricanes still requires improvement, especially on the 24 to 48 hour timescale vital for disaster planning. To improve the operational models used to make hurricane forecasts, scientists need to better understand the multi-scale interactions at the cloud, mesoscale and synoptic scales that lead to hurricane intensification and dissipation, and the various physical processes that affect hurricane intensity and rainfall distributions. Because these uncertainties with regard to how to represent cloud processes still exist, it is vital that the model findings be evaluated against hurricane observations whenever possible. Two-dimensional maps of cloud height such as those shown here offer an unprecedented opportunity for comparing simulated cloud fields against actual hurricane observations.

The left-hand panel in each image pair is a natural color view from MISR's nadir camera. The right-hand panels are cloud-top height retrievals produced by automated computer recognition of the distinctive spatial features between images acquired at different view angles. These results indicate that at the time that these images were acquired, clouds within Frances and Ivan had attained altitudes of 15 kilometers and 16 kilometers above sea level, respectively. The height fields pictured here are uncorrected for the effects of cloud motion. Wind-corrected heights (which have higher accuracy but sparser spatial coverage) are within about 1 kilometer of the heights shown here.

The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer observes the daylit Earth continuously and every 9 days views the entire globe between 82o north and 82o south latitude. These data products were generated from a portion of the imagery acquired during Terra orbits 25081 and 25094. The panels cover an area of 380 kilometers x 924 kilometers, and utilize data from within blocks 65 to 87 within World Reference System-2 paths 14 and 222, respectively.

MISR was built and is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Office of Earth Science, Washington, DC. The Terra satellite is managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. JPL is a division of the California In

A Storm's Approach; Hurricane Shelter Training in a Digital Age

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyarsky, Andrew; Burden, David; Gronstedt, Anders; Jinman, Andrew

2012-01-01

New York City's Office of Emergency Management (OEM) originally ran hundreds of classroom based courses, where they brought together civil servants to learn how to run a Hurricane Shelter (HS). This approach was found to be costly, time consuming and lacked any sense of an impending disaster and need for emergency response. In partnership with the City of New York University School of Professional studies, Gronstedt Group and Daden Limited, the OEM wanted to create a simulation that overcame these issues, providing users with a more immersive and realistic approach at a lower cost. The HS simulation was built in the virtual world Second Life (SL). Virtual worlds are a genre of online communities that often take the form of a computer-based simulated environments, through which users can interact with one another and use or create objects. Using this technology allowed managers to apply their knowledge in both classroom and remote learning environments. The shelter simulation is operational 24/7, guiding users through a 4 1/2 hour narrative from start to finish. This paper will describe the rationale for the project, the technical approach taken - particularly the use of a web based authoring tool to create and manage the immersive simulation, and the results from operational use.

The thermodynamic evolution of the hurricane boundary layer during eyewall replacement cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Gabriel J.

2017-12-01

Eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) are frequently observed during the lifecycle of mature tropical cyclones. Although the kinematic structure and intensity changes during an ERC have been well-documented, comparatively little research has been done to examine the evolution of the tropical cyclone boundary layer (TCBL) during an ERC. This study will examine how the inner core thermal structure of the TCBL is affected by the presence of multiple concentric eyewalls using a high-resolution moist, hydrostatic, multilayer diagnostic boundary layer model. Within the concentric eyewalls above the cloud base, latent heat release and vertical advection (due to the eyewall updrafts) dominate the heat and moisture budgets, whereas vertical advection (due to subsidence) and vertical diffusion dominate the heat and moisture budgets for the moat region. Furthermore, it is shown that the development of a moat region within the TCBL depends sensitively on the moat width in the overlying atmosphere and the relative strength of the gradient wind field in the overlying atmosphere. These results further indicate that the TCBL contributes to outer eyewall formation through a positive feedback process between the vorticity in the nascent outer eyewall, boundary layer convergence, and boundary layer moist convection.

Hurricane Balloon Observations in the Hurricane Inflow Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Businger, S.; Johnson, R.; Ellis, R.; Talbot, R.

2005-12-01

Four autonomous NOAA smart balloons have been prepared at NOAA's Air Resources Lab Field Research Division. The balloons will be released from the northwest corner of Puerto Rico during August and September 2005 into the inflow of tropical cyclones passing just to the north or south of the island. Ballast control allows the balloons to be positioned low in the atmosphere in the inflow of the storms. Observations will include aspirated temperature and humidity, barometric pressure, GPS position, rain rate, ozone, downward IR temperature, and solar radiation. The observations will be transmitted in real time via satellite cellular telephone and posted to the web. Preliminary results of the analysis of the balloon data sets will be presented, including energy content of the inflow air, estimates of surface fluxes, and evidence of organized eddies. Solar cells will help prolong battery life. If a balloon survives an eye-wall penetration, data on the energy content and ozone concentrations of the boundary layer air in the eye will be presented.

Characterization of peak streamflows and flood inundation at selected areas in North Carolina following Hurricane Matthew, October 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Musser, Jonathan W.; Watson, Kara M.; Gotvald, Anthony J.

2017-05-05

The passage of Hurricane Matthew through central and eastern North Carolina during October 7–9, 2016, brought heavy rainfall, which resulted in major flooding. More than 15 inches of rain was recorded in some areas. More than 600 roads were closed, including Interstates 95 and 40, and nearly 99,000 structures were affected by floodwaters. Immediately following the flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey documented 267 high-water marks, of which 254 were surveyed. North Carolina Emergency Management documented and surveyed 353 high-water marks. Using a subset of these highwater marks, six flood-inundation maps were created for hard-hit communities. Digital datasets of the inundation areas, study reach boundary, and water-depth rasters are available for download. In addition, peak gage-height data, peak streamflow data, and annual exceedance probabilities (in percent) were determined for 24 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages located near the heavily flooded communities.

Impacts of land cover changes on hurricane storm surge in the lower Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denton, M.; Lawler, S.; Ferreira, C.

2013-12-01

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States with more than 150 rivers draining into the bay's tidal wetlands. Coastal wetlands and vegetation play an important role in shaping the hydrodynamics of storm surge events by retaining water and slowing the propagation of storm surge. In this way coastal wetlands act as a natural barrier to inland flooding, particularly against less intense storms. Threats to wetlands come from both land development (residential or commercial/industrial) and sea level rise. The lower region of the Chesapeake Bay near its outlet is especially vulnerable to flooding from Atlantic storm surge brought in by hurricanes, tropical storms and nor'easters (e.g., hurricanes Isabel [2003] and Sandy [2012]). This region is also intensely developed with nearly 1.7 million residents within the greater Hampton Roads metropolitan area. Anthropogenic changes to land cover in the lower bay can directly impact basin drainage and storm surge propagation with impacts reaching beyond the immediate coastal zone to affect flooding in inland areas. While construction of seawall barriers around population centers may provide storm surge protection to a specifically defined area, these barriers deflect storm surge rather than attenuate it, underscoring the importance of wetlands. To analyze these impacts a framework was developed combining numerical simulations with a detailed hydrodynamic characterization of flow through coastal wetland areas. Storm surges were calculated using a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC) coupled to a wave model (SWAN) forced by an asymmetric hurricane vortex model using the FEMA region 3 unstructured mesh (2.3 million nodes) under a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. Multiple model simulations were performed using historical hurricanes data and hypothetical storms to compare the predicted storm surge inundation with various levels of wetland reduction and/or beach hardening. These data were combined and overlaid with a geospatial inventory of critical infrastructure assets to evaluate the potential for storm damage associated with each level of wetland reduction. This poster will present quantitative analyses of the benefits and losses regarding storm surge inundation and damage from land cover changes in the study region.

A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes

PubMed Central

Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-01

Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans. PMID:26699461

A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-01

Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes.

PubMed

Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-05

Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

Ocean-atmosphere dynamics during Hurricane Ida and Nor'Ida: An application of the coupled ocean-;atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olabarrieta, Maitane; Warner, John C.; Armstrong, Brandy N.; Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying

2012-01-01

The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor'Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor'easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor'Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness-based parameterization (OOST) provided the best results for wind and wave growth prediction. However, the best agreement between the measured (CODAR) and computed surface currents and storm surge values was obtained with the wave steepness-based roughness parameterization (TY2001), although the differences obtained with respect to DGHQ were not significant. The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) fields on the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics was examined; in particular, we evaluated how the SST affects wind wave generation, surface currents and storm surges. The integrated hydrograph and integrated wave height, parameters that are highly correlated with the storm damage potential, were found to be highly sensitive to the ocean surface roughness parameterization.

Ocean-atmosphere dynamics during Hurricane Ida and Nor'Ida: An application of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olabarrieta, Maitane; Warner, John C.; Armstrong, Brandy N.; Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying

2012-01-01

The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor’Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor’easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor’Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness-based parameterization (OOST) provided the best results for wind and wave growth prediction. However, the best agreement between the measured (CODAR) and computed surface currents and storm surge values was obtained with the wave steepness-based roughness parameterization (TY2001), although the differences obtained with respect to DGHQ were not significant. The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) fields on the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics was examined; in particular, we evaluated how the SST affects wind wave generation, surface currents and storm surges. The integrated hydrograph and integrated wave height, parameters that are highly correlated with the storm damage potential, were found to be highly sensitive to the ocean surface roughness parameterization.

Dynamic inundation mapping of Hurricane Harvey flooding in the Houston metro area using hyper-resolution modeling and quantitative image reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S. J.; Lee, J. H.; Lee, S.; Zhang, Y.; Seo, D. J.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey was one of the most extreme weather events in Texas history and left significant damages in the Houston and adjoining coastal areas. To understand better the relative impact to urban flooding of extreme amount and spatial extent of rainfall, unique geography, land use and storm surge, high-resolution water modeling is necessary such that natural and man-made components are fully resolved. In this presentation, we reconstruct spatiotemporal evolution of inundation during Hurricane Harvey using hyper-resolution modeling and quantitative image reanalysis. The two-dimensional urban flood model used is based on dynamic wave approximation and 10 m-resolution terrain data, and is forced by the radar-based multisensor quantitative precipitation estimates. The model domain includes Buffalo, Brays, Greens and White Oak Bayous in Houston. The model is simulated using hybrid parallel computing. To evaluate dynamic inundation mapping, we combine various qualitative crowdsourced images and video footages with LiDAR-based terrain data.

Concepts for Functional Restoration of Barrier Islands

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

percent. Restoration of the islands also delayed the peak of the surge by 2 hr as calculated landward of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana. Calculations... Chandeleur Islands. Wamsley et al. (2009) conducted similar simulations with coupled wave and circulation models for the Chandeleur Islands for two...simulations indicated that degradation of the Chandeleur Islands increased the peak storm surge slightly (less than 1.6 ft) at the hurricane

Hydrological control of large hurricane-induced lahars: evidence from rainfall-runoff modeling, seismic and video monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capra, Lucia; Coviello, Velio; Borselli, Lorenzo; Márquez-Ramírez, Víctor-Hugo; Arámbula-Mendoza, Raul

2018-03-01

The Volcán de Colima, one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico, is commonly affected by tropical rains related to hurricanes that form over the Pacific Ocean. In 2011, 2013 and 2015 hurricanes Jova, Manuel and Patricia, respectively, triggered tropical storms that deposited up to 400 mm of rain in 36 h, with maximum intensities of 50 mm h -1. The effects were devastating, with the formation of multiple lahars along La Lumbre and Montegrande ravines, which are the most active channels in sediment delivery on the south-southwest flank of the volcano. Deep erosion along the river channels and several marginal landslides were observed, and the arrival of block-rich flow fronts resulted in damages to bridges and paved roads in the distal reaches of the ravines. The temporal sequence of these flow events is reconstructed and analyzed using monitoring data (including video images, seismic records and rainfall data) with respect to the rainfall characteristics and the hydrologic response of the watersheds based on rainfall-runoff numerical simulation. For the studied events, lahars occurred 5-6 h after the onset of rainfall, lasted several hours and were characterized by several pulses with block-rich fronts and a maximum flow discharge of 900 m3 s -1. Rainfall-runoff simulations were performer using the SCS-curve number and the Green-Ampt infiltration models, providing a similar result in the detection of simulated maximum watershed peaks discharge. Results show different behavior for the arrival times of the first lahar pulses that correlate with the simulated catchment's peak discharge for La Lumbre ravine and with the peaks in rainfall intensity for Montegrande ravine. This different behavior is related to the area and shape of the two watersheds. Nevertheless, in all analyzed cases, the largest lahar pulse always corresponds with the last one and correlates with the simulated maximum peak discharge of these catchments. Data presented here show that flow pulses within a lahar are not randomly distributed in time, and they can be correlated with rainfall peak intensity and/or watershed discharge, depending on the watershed area and shape. This outcome has important implications for hazard assessment during extreme hydro-meteorological events, as it could help in providing real-time alerts. A theoretical rainfall distribution curve was designed for Volcán de Colima based on the rainfall and time distribution of hurricanes Manuel and Patricia. This can be used to run simulations using weather forecasts prior to the actual event, in order to estimate the arrival time of main lahar pulses, usually characterized by block-rich fronts, which are responsible for most of the damage to infrastructure and loss of goods and lives.

SURA-IOOS Coastal Inundation Testbed Inter-Model Evaluation of Tides, Waves, and Hurricane Surge in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, P. C.; Donahue, A.; Westerink, J. J.; Luettich, R.; Zheng, L.; Weisberg, R. H.; Wang, H. V.; Slinn, D. N.; Davis, J. R.; Huang, Y.; Teng, Y.; Forrest, D.; Haase, A.; Kramer, A.; Rhome, J.; Feyen, J. C.; Signell, R. P.; Hanson, J. L.; Taylor, A.; Hope, M.; Kennedy, A. B.; Smith, J. M.; Powell, M. D.; Cardone, V. J.; Cox, A. T.

2012-12-01

The Southeastern Universities Research Association (SURA), in collaboration with the NOAA Integrated Ocean Observing System program and other federal partners, developed a testbed to help accelerate progress in both research and the transition to operational use of models for both coastal and estuarine prediction. This testbed facilitates cyber-based sharing of data and tools, archival of observation data, and the development of cross-platform tools to efficiently access, visualize, skill assess, and evaluate model results. In addition, this testbed enables the modeling community to quantitatively assess the behavior (e.g., skill, robustness, execution speed) and implementation requirements (e.g. resolution, parameterization, computer capacity) that characterize the suitability and performance of selected models from both operational and fundamental science perspectives. This presentation focuses on the tropical coastal inundation component of the testbed and compares a variety of model platforms as well as grids in simulating tides, and the wave and surge environments for two extremely well documented historical hurricanes, Hurricanes Rita (2005) and Ike (2008). Model platforms included are ADCIRC, FVCOM, SELFE, SLOSH, SWAN, and WWMII. Model validation assessments were performed on simulation results using numerous station observation data in the form of decomposed harmonic constituents, water level high water marks and hydrographs of water level and wave data. In addition, execution speed, inundation extents defined by differences in wetting/drying schemes, resolution and parameterization sensitivities are also explored.

Retrieved Products from Simulated Hyperspectral Observations of a Hurricane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Kouvaris, Louis; Iredell, Lena; Blaisdell, John

2015-01-01

Demonstrate via Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) the potential utility of flying high spatial resolution AIRS class IR sounders on future LEO and GEO missions.The study simulates and analyzes radiances for 3 sounders with AIRS spectral and radiometric properties on different orbits with different spatial resolutions: 1) Control run 13 kilometers AIRS spatial resolution at nadir on LEO in Aqua orbit; 2) 2 kilometer spatial resolution LEO sounder at nadir ARIES; 3) 5 kilometers spatial resolution sounder on a GEO orbit, radiances simulated every 72 minutes.

Using the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System to study the climatology of hurricane precipitation structure from 10 years of passive microwave satellite observations in the Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hristova-Veleva, Svetla; Haddad, Ziad; Knosp, Brian; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn; Li, P. Peggy; Poulsen, William; Seo, Eun-Kyoung; Shen, Tsae-Pyng; Turk, Francis J.; Vu, Quoc

2013-04-01

In spite of recent improvements in hurricane track forecast accuracy, currently there are still many unanswered questions about the physical processes that determine hurricane genesis, and evolution. Furthermore, a significant amount of work remains to be done in validating and improving hurricane forecast models. None of this can be accomplished without a comprehensive set of multi-parameter observations that are relevant to both the large-scale and the storm-scale processes in the atmosphere and in the ocean. Despite the significant amount of satellite observations today, they are still underutilized in hurricane research and operations, due to complexity and volume. To facilitate hurricane research, we developed the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) of multi-instrument satellite observations pertaining to: i) the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of the storms; ii) the air-sea interaction processes; iii) the larger-scale environment as depicted by the SST and the Total Precipitable Water of the environment (Hristova-Veleva et al., 2008, 2011). Our goal was to create a one-stop place to provide the researchers with an extensive set of observed hurricane data, and their graphical representation, organized in an easy way to determine when coincident observations from multiple instruments are available. In this study we use the 10+ years of passive microwave observations of Atlantic hurricanes to create composite structures that are segregated by hurricane category and by intensification rate. The use of composite structures provides a statistically robust framework (e.g. Rogers et al., 2012). We analyze the storm asymmetry as depicted by several factors - brightness temperatures and their derivatives such as a newly-develop Rain Indicator and a new convective/stratiform separation that is based on the value and the spatial variability of this Rain Indicator. The goal is to determine whether the storm morphology (in particular, the storm asymmetry or lack thereof) carries predictive skills regarding the potential for intensification. The presentation will describe the JPL TCIS and the results of our analysis of the passive microwave satellite observations of the Atlantic hurricanes. Refernces: Hristova-Veleva, S. M., C. Ao, Y. Chao, V. Dang, R. Fovell, M. Garay, Z. Haddad, B. Knosp, B. Lambrigtsen, P. P. Li, K. J. Park, W. Poulsen, H. Su, S. Tanelli, D. Vane, Q. A. Vu, J. Willis, D. L. Wu, 2008: "Using the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System for Research and Applications", AMS 28th Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology Conference, Orlando, FL, 28Apr.-02May 2008 Hristova-Veleva, S. M., A. Chau, Z. Haddad, B. Knosp, B. Lambrigtsen, P. P. Li, E. Rodriguez, T. -. P. Shen, B. Stiles, H. Su, J. Turk, and Q. Vu, 2011: "Impact of microphysical parameterizations on the structure and intensity of simulated hurricanes: Using satellite data to determine the parameterizations that produce most realistic storms", 14th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, 1-4 August 2011, Los Angeles, California Rogers, R., S. Lorsolo, P. Reasor, J. Gamache, F. Marks, 2012: Multiscale Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Kinematic Structure from Airborne Doppler Radar Composites. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 77-99.

Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Problems and Associated Research Opportunities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marks, F.D.; Shay, L.K.; Barnes, G.; Black, P.; Demaria, M.; McCaul, B.; Mounari, J.; Montgomery, M.; Powell, M.; Smith, J.D.; Tuleya, B.; Tripoli, G.; Xie, Lingtian; Zehr, R.

1998-01-01

The Fifth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program was charged to identify and delineate emerging research opportunities relevant to the prediction of local weather, flooding, and coastal ocean currents associated with landfalling U.S. hurricanes specifically, and tropical cyclones in general. Central to this theme are basic and applied research topics, including rapid intensity change, initialization of and parameterization in dynamical models, coupling of atmospheric and oceanic models, quantitative use of satellite information, and mobile observing strategies to acquire observations to evaluate and validate predictive models. To improve the necessary understanding of physical processes and provide the initial conditions for realistic predictions, a focused, comprehensive mobile observing system in a translating storm-coordinate system is required. Given the development of proven instrumentation and improvement of existing systems, three-dimensional atmospheric and oceanic datasets need to be acquired whenever major hurricanes threaten the United States. The spatial context of these focused three-dimensional datasets over the storm scales is provided by satellites, aircraft, expendable probes released from aircraft, and coastal (both fixed and mobile), moored, and drifting surface platforms. To take full advantage of these new observations, techniques need to be developed to objectively analyze these observations, and initialize models aimed at improving prediction of hurricane track and intensity from global-scale to mesoscale dynamical models. Multinested models allow prediction of all scales from the global, which determine long- term hurricane motion to the convective scale, which affect intensity. Development of an integrated analysis and model forecast system optimizing the use of three-dimensional observations and providing the necessary forecast skill on all relevant spatial scales is required. Detailed diagnostic analyses of these datasets will lead to improved understanding of the physical processes of hurricane motion, intensity change, the atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers, and the air- sea coupling mechanisms. The ultimate aim of this effort is the construction of real-time analyses of storm surge, winds, and rain, prior to and during landfall, to improve warnings and provide local officials with the comprehensive information required for recovery efforts in the hardest hit areas as quickly as possible.

The weight of a storm: what observations of Earth surface deformation can tell us about Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borsa, A. A.; Mencin, D.; van Dam, T. M.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to impact the USA in over a decade, making landfall southwest of Houston, TX on August 26, 2017. Although Harvey was downgraded to a tropical storm shortly after landfall, it dropped a record amount of rain and was responsible for epic flooding across much of southeast Texas. While precipitation from a large storm like Harvey can be estimated from in-situ rain gages and Doppler radar, the accompanying surface water changes that lead to flooding are imperfectly observed due to the limited coverage of existing stream and lake level gages and because floodwaters inundate areas that are typically unmonitored. Earth's response to changes in surface loading provides an opportunity to observe the local hydrological response to Hurricane Harvey, specifically the dramatic changes in water storage coincident with and following the storm. Continuous GPS stations in southeastern Texas observed an average drop in land surface elevations of 1.8 cm following Harvey's landfall, followed by a gradual recovery to pre-storm levels over the following month. We interpret this surface motion as Earth's elastic response to the weight of cumulative rainfall during the storm, followed by rebound as that weight was removed by runoff and evapotranspiration (ET). Using observations of surface displacements from GPS stations in the HoustonNET and Plate Boundary Observatory networks, we model the daily water storage changes across Texas and Louisiana associated with Harvey. Because Harvey's barometric pressure low caused surface uplift at the cm level which temporarily obscured the subsidence signal due to precipitation, we model and remove the effect of atmospheric loading from the GPS data prior to our analysis. We also consider the effect on GPS position time series of non-tidal ocean loading due to the hurricane storm surge, which at the coast was an order of magnitude larger than loads due to precipitation alone. Finally, we use our results to estimate 1) the total precipitation load from the storm, 2) the spatial distribution of flooding, and 3) the runoff/ET component of water storage changes (incorporating independent estimates of precipitation).

Hurricane Matthew over Haiti seen by NASA MISR

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-04

On the morning of October 4, 2016, Hurricane Matthew passed over the island nation of Haiti. A Category 4 storm, it made landfall around 7 a.m. local time (5 a.m. PDT/8 a.m. EDT) with sustained winds over 145 mph. This is the strongest hurricane to hit Haiti in over 50 years. On October 4, at 10:30 a.m. local time (8:30 a.m. PDT/11:30 a.m. EDT), the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite passed over Hurricane Matthew. This animation was made from images taken by MISR's downward-pointing (nadir) camera is 235 miles (378 kilometers) across, which is much narrower than the massive diameter of Matthew, so only the hurricane's eye and a portion of the storm's right side are visible. Haiti is completely obscured by Matthew's clouds, but part of the Bahamas is visible to the north. Several hot towers are visible within the central part of the storm, and another at the top right of the image. Hot towers are enormous thunderheads that punch through the tropopause (the boundary between the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the troposphere, and the next level, the stratosphere). The rugged topography of Haiti causes uplift within the storm, generating these hot towers and fueling even more rain than Matthew would otherwise dump on the country. MISR has nine cameras fixed at different angles, which capture images of the same point on the ground within about seven minutes. This animation was created by blending images from these nine cameras. The change in angle between the images causes a much larger motion from south to north than actually exists, but the rotation of the storm is real motion. From this animation, you can get an idea of the incredible height of the hot towers, especially the one to the upper right. The counter-clockwise rotation of Matthew around its closed (cloudy) eye is also visible. These data were acquired during Terra orbit 89345. An animation is available at http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21070

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, John C.; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran

Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase by a factor of 2-7 for each degree of increase in mean global temperature. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 8 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. Globalmore » mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those in RCP4.5, but sulphate injection would have to double between 2020 and 2070 to balance RCP 4.5 to nearly 10 Tg SO2 yr-1, with consequent implications for damage to stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent Generalized Extreme Value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges from 1923 and observed temperatures. The numbers of storm surge events as big as the one that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this is only marginally statistically significant. Furthermore, when sea level rise differences at 2070 between RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored in to coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5 year events and perhaps halved for 50 year surges.« less

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

DOE PAGES

Moore, John C.; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran; ...

2015-10-26

Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase by a factor of 2-7 for each degree of increase in mean global temperature. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 8 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. Globalmore » mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those in RCP4.5, but sulphate injection would have to double between 2020 and 2070 to balance RCP 4.5 to nearly 10 Tg SO2 yr-1, with consequent implications for damage to stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent Generalized Extreme Value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges from 1923 and observed temperatures. The numbers of storm surge events as big as the one that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this is only marginally statistically significant. Furthermore, when sea level rise differences at 2070 between RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored in to coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5 year events and perhaps halved for 50 year surges.« less

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering.

PubMed

Moore, John C; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran; Yu, Xiaoyong; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rinke, Annette; Cui, Xuefeng; Kravitz, Ben; Lenton, Andrew; Watanabe, Shingo; Ji, Duoying

2015-11-10

Devastating floods due to Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However, the frequency of the most intense storms is likely to increase with rises in sea surface temperatures. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane Main Development Region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may mitigate hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using eight earth system model simulations of climate under the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those temperature increases in the RCP4.5. However, sulfate injection would have to double (to nearly 10 teragrams of SO2 per year) between 2020 and 2070 to balance the RCP4.5, approximately the equivalent of a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 2 y, with consequent implications for stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent generalized extreme value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges and observed temperatures since 1923. The number of storm surge events as big as the one caused by the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this reduction is only marginally statistically significant. Nevertheless, when sea level rise differences in 2070 between the RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored into coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5-y events and about halved for 50-y surges.

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, John C.; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran

2015-10-26

Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase by a factor of 2-7 for each degree of increase in mean global temperature. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 8 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. Globalmore » mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those in RCP4.5, but sulphate injection would have to double between 2020 and 2070 to balance RCP 4.5 to nearly 10 Tg SO2 yr-1, with consequent implications for damage to stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent Generalized Extreme Value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges from 1923 and observed temperatures. The numbers of storm surge events as big as the one that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this is only marginally statistically significant. However, when sea level rise differences at 2070 between RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored in to coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5 year events and perhaps halved for 50 year surges.« less

Impact of vegetation on the hydrodynamics and morphological changes of the Wax Lake Delta during hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, F.; Kettner, A. J.; Syvitski, J. P.; Ye, Q.; Bevington, A.; Twilley, R.; Atkinson, J. H.

2013-12-01

Coastal wetlands are natural barriers for storms, but have become more vulnerable especially when considering sea level rise and intensification of hurricanes due to global climate change. We use the numerical model Delft3D, which incorporates a newly developed vegetation routine to analyze the impact of natural vegetation on the morphological changes of coastal wetlands. The vegetation routine takes into account: 1) the influence of vertically oriented stems of plants as well as horizontally oriented stems (bent or broken but still attached to the belowground roots and rhizomes) on the flow turbulence as well as flow momentum, and 2) the influence of plant roots on the submerged soil strength. The model is applied to the Wax Lake Delta, a river-dominated delta that is part of the larger Mississippi River Delta system, during extreme events (hurricane Katrina and Rita (2005)). Hydrodynamic components as well as waves and salinity are included in the Delft3D model simulation. Results reveal that the submerged aboveground plant stems significantly decrease flow velocity and protect the wetland from erosion. When flow velocity exceeds a critical value, plant stems start to orient horizontally and lie on the bed, which changes the 3D vertical flow structure to free water condition (log profile), and also increases the bed roughness on the wetlands. Roots help to increase the soil strength, reducing erosion of the wetlands. However, roots can also intensify erosion if they got pulled out of the soil during storm events. Typically the whole root system of plants will be pulled out together, leading to a mat of soil that is eroded. This process has been observed for some parts of the Mississippi Delta during severe hurricanes like hurricane Katrina. Storm surges generated by hurricanes can push a large amount of saline water into the freshwater wetlands. The high salinity water increases flocculation and therefore sedimentation. Overall, plants have a complex impact on the hydrodynamic and morphological changes of coastal wetlands, which are not yet fully understood. This study shows that plants have to be taken into consideration when studying morphological processes of wetlands, especially during extreme events, such as hurricanes.

Development of the Fully Adaptive Storm Tide (FAST) Model for hurricane induced storm surges and associated inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, Y. C.; Kelly, D.; Li, Y.; Zhang, K.

2016-02-01

A new state-of-the-art model (the Fully Adaptive Storm Tide model, FAST) for the prediction of storm surges over complex landscapes is presented. The FAST model is based on the conservation form of the full non-linear depth-averaged long wave equations. The equations are solved via an explicit finite volume scheme with interfacial fluxes being computed via Osher's approximate Riemann solver. Geometric source terms are treated in a high order manner that is well-balanced. The numerical solution technique has been chosen to enable the accurate simulation of wetting and drying over complex topography. Another important feature of the FAST model is the use of a simple underlying Cartesian mesh with tree-based static and dynamic adaptive mesh refinement (AMR). This permits the simulation of unsteady flows over varying landscapes (including localized features such as canals) by locally increasing (or relaxing) grid resolution in a dynamic fashion. The use of (dynamic) AMR lowers the computational cost of the storm surge model whilst retaining high resolution (and thus accuracy) where and when it is required. In additional, the FAST model has been designed to execute in a parallel computational environment with localized time-stepping. The FAST model has already been carefully verified against a series of benchmark type problems (Kelly et al. 2015). Here we present two simulations of the storm tide due to Hurricane Ike(2008) and Hurricane Sandy (2012). The model incorporates high resolution LIDAR data for the major portion of the New York City. Results compare favorably with water elevations measured by NOAA tidal gauges, by mobile sensors deployed and high water marks collected by the USGS.

77 FR 64564 - Implementation of Regulatory Guide 1.221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-22

...-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Proposed interim...-ISG-024, ``Implementation of Regulatory Guide 1.221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles....221, ``Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants.'' DATES: Submit...

Low-Latitude Western North Atlantic Climate Variability During the Past Millennium: Insights from Proxies and Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

simulations indicate extratropical North Atlantic climate can influence the meridional position of the ITCZ [Chiang and Bitz, 2005; Broccoli et al...record from the Cariaco Basin: Baseline variability, twentieth-century warming, and Atlantic hurricane frequency. Paleoceanography, 22. Broccoli ...SSTs were not markedly cooler during the LIA suggests that the ITCZ may have responded to extra- tropical cooling. Idealized simulations [ Broccoli et al

Stochastic Convection Parameterizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teixeira, Joao; Reynolds, Carolyn; Suselj, Kay; Matheou, Georgios

2012-01-01

computational fluid dynamics, radiation, clouds, turbulence, convection, gravity waves, surface interaction, radiation interaction, cloud and aerosol microphysics, complexity (vegetation, biogeochemistry, radiation versus turbulence/convection stochastic approach, non-linearities, Monte Carlo, high resolutions, large-Eddy Simulations, cloud structure, plumes, saturation in tropics, forecasting, parameterizations, stochastic, radiation-clod interaction, hurricane forecasts

A numerical model investigation of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on water level variability in Great South Bay, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bennett, Vanessa C. C.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Hapke, Cheryl J.

2018-01-01

Hurricane Sandy was a large and intense storm with high winds that caused total water levels from combined tides and storm surge to reach 4.0 m in the Atlantic Ocean and 2.5 m in Great South Bay (GSB), a back-barrier bay between Fire Island and Long Island, New York. In this study the impact of the hurricane winds and waves are examined in order to understand the flow of ocean water into the back-barrier bay and water level variations within the bay. To accomplish this goal, a high resolution hurricane wind field is used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and wave models over a series of grids with the finest resolution in GSB. The processes that control water levels in the back-barrier bay are investigated by comparing the results of four cases that include: (i) tides only; (ii) tides, winds and waves with no overwash over Fire Island allowed; (iii) tides, winds, waves and limited overwash at the east end of the island; (iv) tides, winds, waves and extensive overwash along the island. The results indicate that strong local wind-driven storm surge along the bay axis had the largest influence on the total water level fluctuations during the hurricane. However, the simulations allowing for overwash have higher correlation with water level observations in GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to eastern GSB during the storm. The computations indicate that overwash of 7500–10,000 m3s−1 was approximately the same as the inflow from the ocean through the major existing inlet. Overall, the model results indicate the complex variability in total water levels driven by tides, ocean storm surge, surge from local winds, and overwash that had a significant impact on the circulation in Great South Bay during Hurricane Sandy.

A numerical model investigation of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on water level variability in Great South Bay, New York

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Vanessa C. C.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Hapke, Cheryl J.

2018-06-01

Hurricane Sandy was a large and intense storm with high winds that caused total water levels from combined tides and storm surge to reach 4.0 m in the Atlantic Ocean and 2.5 m in Great South Bay (GSB), a back-barrier bay between Fire Island and Long Island, New York. In this study the impact of the hurricane winds and waves are examined in order to understand the flow of ocean water into the back-barrier bay and water level variations within the bay. To accomplish this goal, a high resolution hurricane wind field is used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and wave models over a series of grids with the finest resolution in GSB. The processes that control water levels in the back-barrier bay are investigated by comparing the results of four cases that include: (i) tides only; (ii) tides, winds and waves with no overwash over Fire Island allowed; (iii) tides, winds, waves and limited overwash at the east end of the island; (iv) tides, winds, waves and extensive overwash along the island. The results indicate that strong local wind-driven storm surge along the bay axis had the largest influence on the total water level fluctuations during the hurricane. However, the simulations allowing for overwash have higher correlation with water level observations in GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to eastern GSB during the storm. The computations indicate that overwash of 7500-10,000 m3s-1 was approximately the same as the inflow from the ocean through the major existing inlet. Overall, the model results indicate the complex variability in total water levels driven by tides, ocean storm surge, surge from local winds, and overwash that had a significant impact on the circulation in Great South Bay during Hurricane Sandy.

Secondary eyewall formation in WRF simulations of Hurricanes Rita and Katrina (2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abarca, Sergio F.; Corbosiero, Kristen L.

2011-04-01

An analysis is presented of two high-resolution hurricane simulations of Katrina and Rita (2005) that exhibited secondary eyewall formation (SEF). The results support the notion of vortex Rossby waves (VRWs) having an important role in SEF and suggest that VRW activity is a defining aspect of the moat. SEF occurs at a radius of ˜65 (80) km in Katrina (Rita), close to the hypothesized stagnation radius of VRWs. VRW activity appears to be the result of eye-eyewall mixing events, themselves a product of the release of barotropic instability. The convection in the radial region that becomes the moat is mainly in the form of VRWs propagating radially outward from the primary eyewall until the negative radial gradient of potential vorticity is no longer conducive for their propagation. These convectively coupled waves, originating and being expelled from the eyewall, are rotation dominated and have the coherency necessary to survive their passage through the strain-dominated region outside the eyewall.

Investigation of hurricane Ivan using the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying; Warner, John C.

2014-01-01

The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) model is used to hindcast Hurricane Ivan (2004), an extremely intense tropical cyclone (TC) translating through the Gulf of Mexico. Sensitivity experiments with increasing complexity in ocean–atmosphere–wave coupled exchange processes are performed to assess the impacts of coupling on the predictions of the atmosphere, ocean, and wave environments during the occurrence of a TC. Modest improvement in track but significant improvement in intensity are found when using the fully atmosphere–ocean-wave coupled configuration versus uncoupled (e.g., standalone atmosphere, ocean, or wave) model simulations. Surface wave fields generated in the fully coupled configuration also demonstrates good agreement with in situ buoy measurements. Coupled and uncoupled model-simulated sea surface temperature (SST) fields are compared with both in situ and remote observations. Detailed heat budget analysis reveals that the mixed layer temperature cooling in the deep ocean (on the shelf) is caused primarily by advection (equally by advection and diffusion).

Modeling Bird Migration in Changing Habitats: Space-based Ornithology using Satellites and GIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James A.; Deppe, Jill L.

2008-01-01

Understanding bird migration and avian biodiversity is one of the most compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Migration and conservation efforts cross national boundaries and are subject to numerous international agreements and treaties presenting challenges in both geographic space and time. Space based technology, coupled with geographic information systems, yields new opportunities to shed light on the distribution and movement of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. At NASA, we are creating ecological forecasting tools for science and application users to address the consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, drought or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration. In our work, we use individual organism biophysical models and drive these models with satellite observations and numerical weather predictions of the spatio-temporal gradients in climate and habitat. Geographic information system technology comprises one component of our overall simulation framework, especially for characterizing the changing habitats and conditions encountered by en-route migratory birds. Simulation provides a tool for studying bird migration across multiple scales and can be linked to mechanistic processes describing the time and energy budget states of migrating birds. Such models yield an understanding of how a migratory flyway and its component habitats function as a whole and link stop-over ecology with biological conservation and management. We present examples of our simulation of shorebirds, principally, pectoral sandpipers, along the central flyways of the United States and Canada from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.

Unified Program for the Specification of Hurricane Boundary Layer Winds Over Surfaces of Specified Roughness.

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

commercial products. rFnn APWn.,W REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE oJ_ NO_ o____ PUNK GOPo m=for ta.meuarnca €4 rwmton It "s to "Wuqe I a"oW a•. ama, Wmusma e tune...soa No.. W Q:- .i0 -0. 0d ~ C. m to 0 .9.0 . ~ n e a IV to a * e * a C . c Pop *e * * * . . ci .,e a e ON:O Cm. 40C -a.’ a . . w a. .W o . t. ftl mn

Overview of Proposal on High Resolution Climate Model Simulations of Recent Hurricane and Typhoon Activity: The Impact of SSTs and the Madden Julian Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Kang, In-Sik; Reale, Oreste

2009-01-01

This talk gives an update on the progress and further plans for a coordinated project to carry out and analyze high-resolution simulations of tropical storm activity with a number of state-of-the-art global climate models. Issues addressed include, the mechanisms by which SSTs control tropical storm. activity on inter-annual and longer time scales, the modulation of that activity by the Madden Julian Oscillation on sub-seasonal time scales, as well as the sensitivity of the results to model formulation. The project also encourages companion coarser resolution runs to help assess resolution dependence, and. the ability of the models to capture the large-scale and long-terra changes in the parameters important for hurricane development. Addressing the above science questions is critical to understanding the nature of the variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon and its regional impacts, and thus CLIVAR RAMP fully endorses the proposed tropical storm simulation activity. The project is open to all interested organizations and investigators, and the results from the runs will be shared among the participants, as well as made available to the broader scientific community for analysis.

Generating Inviscid and Viscous Fluid Flow Simulations over a Surface Using a Quasi-simultaneous Technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sturdza, Peter (Inventor); Martins-Rivas, Herve (Inventor); Suzuki, Yoshifumi (Inventor)

2014-01-01

A fluid-flow simulation over a computer-generated surface is generated using a quasi-simultaneous technique. The simulation includes a fluid-flow mesh of inviscid and boundary-layer fluid cells. An initial fluid property for an inviscid fluid cell is determined using an inviscid fluid simulation that does not simulate fluid viscous effects. An initial boundary-layer fluid property a boundary-layer fluid cell is determined using the initial fluid property and a viscous fluid simulation that simulates fluid viscous effects. An updated boundary-layer fluid property is determined for the boundary-layer fluid cell using the initial fluid property, initial boundary-layer fluid property, and an interaction law. The interaction law approximates the inviscid fluid simulation using a matrix of aerodynamic influence coefficients computed using a two-dimensional surface panel technique and a fluid-property vector. An updated fluid property is determined for the inviscid fluid cell using the updated boundary-layer fluid property.

Development of a dynamic traffic assignment model to evaluate lane-reversal plans for I-65.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-05-01

This report presents the methodology and results from a project that studied contra-flow operations in support of : hurricane evacuations in the state of Alabama. As part of this effort, a simulation model was developed using the : VISTA platform for...

Hurricane Mitch: Landscape Analysis of Damaged Forest Resources of the Bay Islands and Caribbean Coast of Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Thomas W.; Michot, Thomas C.; Roetker, Fred; Sullivan, Jason; Melder, Marcus; Handley, Benjamin; Balmat, Jeff

2002-01-01

The advent of analog and digital video has provided amateur photographers with professional-like technology to capture dynamic images with ease and clarity. Videography is also rapidly changing traditional business and scientific applications. In the natural sciences, camcorders are being used largely to record timely observations of plant and animal behavior or consequence of some catastrophic event. Spectacular video of dynamic events such as hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and wildfire document the active process and aftermath. Scientists can analyze video images to quantify aspects of a given event, behavior, or response, temporally and spatially. In this study we demonstrate the simple use of an aerial application of videography to record the spatial extent and damage expression of mangrove forest in the Bay Islands and mainland coast of northern Honduras from wind damage following Hurricane Mitch (1998). In this study, we conducted a video overflight of coastal forests of the Bay Islands and mainland coast of northern Honduras 14 months after impact by Hurricane Mitch (1998). Coastal areas were identified where damage was evident and described relative to damage extent to forest cover, windfall orientation, and height of downed trees. The variability and spatial extent of impact on coastal forest resources is related to reconstructed wind profiles based on model simulations of Mitch's path, strength, and circulation during landfall.

Wind damage effects of Hurricane Andrew on mangrove communities along the southwest coast of Florida, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, T.W.; Smith, T. J.; Robblee, M.B.

1995-01-01

On August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew downed and defoliated an extensive swath of mangrove trees across the lower Florida peninsula. Permanent field sites were established to assess the extent of forest damage and to monitor the rate and process of forest recovery. Canopy trees suffered the highest mortality particularly for sites within and immediately north of the storm's eyewall. The type and extent of site damage, windthrow, branch loss, and defoliation generally decreased exponentially with increasing distance from the storm track. Forest damage was greater for sites in the storm's right quadrant than in the left quadrant tor the same given distance from the storm center. Stand exposure, both horizontally and vertically, increased the susceptibility and probability of forest damage and accounted for much of the local variability. Slight species differences were found. Laguncularia racemosa exceeded Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle in damage tendency under similar wind conditions. Azimuths of downed trees were strongly correlated with maximum wind speed and vector based on a hurricane simulation of the storm. Lateral branch loss and leaf defoliation on sites without windthrow damage indicated a degree of crown thinning and light penetration equivalent to treefall gaps under normally intact forest conditions. Mangrove species and forests are susceptible to catastrophic disturbance by hurricanes; the impacts of which are significant to changes in forest structure and function.

A Numerical Study of Hurricane Erin (2001). Part 1; Model Verification and Storm Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Liguang; Braun, Scott A.; Halverson, J.; Heymsfield, G.

2006-01-01

The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Hurricane Erin (2001) at high resolution (4-km spacing) from its early development as a tropical depression on 7 September 2001, through a period of rapid intensification into a strong hurricane (8 9 September), and finally into a stage during which it maintains its intensity on 10 September. These three stages of formation, intensification, and maintenance in the simulation are in good agreement with the observed evolution of Erin. The simulation shows that during the formation and early portions of the intensification stages, intensification is favored because the environmental wind shear is weak and the system moves over a warm tongue of water. As Erin intensifies, the wind shear gradually increases with the approach of an upper-level trough and strengthening of a low-level high pressure system. By 10 September, the wind shear peaks and begins to decrease, the storm moves over slightly cooler waters, and the intensification ends. Important structural changes occur at this time as the outer precipitation shifts from the northeastern and eastern sides to the western side of the eye. A secondary wind maximum and an outer eyewall begin to develop as precipitation begins to surround the entire eye. The simulation is used to investigate the role of vertical wind shear in the changes of the precipitation structure that took place between 9 and 10 September by examining the effects of changes in storm-relative flow and changes in the shear-induced tilt. Qualitative agreement is found between the divergence pattern and advection of vorticity by the relative flow with convergence (divergence) generally associated with asymmetric inflow (outflow) in the eyewall region. The shift in the outer precipitation is consistent with a shift in the low-level relative inflow from the northeastern to the northwestern side of the storm. The changes in the relative flow are associated with changes in the environmental winds as the hurricane moves relative to the upper trough and the low-level high pressure system. Examination of the shear-induced tilt of the vortex shows that the change in the tilt direction is greater than that of the shear direction as the tilt shifts from a northerly orientation to northwesterly. Consistent with theory for adiabatic vortices, the maximum low-level convergence and upper-level divergence (and the maximum upward motion) occurs in the direction of tilt. Consequently, both mechanisms may play roles in the changes in the precipitation pattern.

A Numerical Study of Hurricane Erin (2001). Part 1; Model Verification and Storm Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Liquang; Braun, Scott A.; Halverson, J.; Heymsfield, G.

2003-01-01

The Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 is used to simulate Hurricane Erin (2001) at high resolution (4-km spacing) from its early development as a tropical depression on 7 September 2001, through a period of rapid intensification into a strong hurricane (8-9 September), and finally into a stage during which it maintains its intensity on 10 September. These three stages of development, intensification, and maintenance in the simulation are in good agreement with the observed evolution of Erin. The simulation shows that during the development and early portions of the intensification stages, intensification is favored because the environmental wind shear is weak and the system moves over a warm tongue of water. As Erin intensifies, the wind'shear gradually increases with the approach of an upper-level trough and strengthening of a low-level high pressure system. By 10 September, the wind shear peaks and begins to decrease, the storm moves over slightly cooler waters, and the intensification ends. Important structural changes occur at this time as the outer precipitation shift from the northeastern and eastern sides to the western side of the eye and precipitation begins to surround the entire eye to initiate the development of a secondary wind maximum and an outer eyewall. The simulation is used to investigate the role of vertical wind shear in the changes of the precipitation structure that took place between 9-10 September by examining the effects of both storm-relative flow changes and changes in the shear-induced tilt. Qualitative agreement is found between the divergence pattern and advection of vorticity by the relative flow with convergence (divergence) generally associated with asymmetric inflow (outflow) in the eyewall region. The shift in the outer precipitation is consistent with a shift in the low-level relative inflow from the northeastern to the northwestern side of the storm. The changes in the relative flow are associated with changes in the winds as the hurricane moves relative to the upper tough and the low-level high pressure system. Examination of the shear-induced tilt of the vortex shows that the change in the tilt direction is greater than that of the shear direction as the tilt shifts from a northerly orientation to northwesterly. Consistent with theory for adiabatic vortices, the maximum low-level convergence and upper-level divergence (and the maximum upward motion) occurs in the direction of tilt. Consequently, both mechanisms may play roles in the changes in the precipitation pattern.

Atomistic simulations of dislocation pileup: Grain boundaries interaction

DOE PAGES

Wang, Jian

2015-05-27

Here, using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, we studied the dislocation pileup–grain boundary (GB) interactions. Two Σ11 asymmetrical tilt grain boundaries in Al are studied to explore the influence of orientation relationship and interface structure on dislocation activities at grain boundaries. To mimic the reality of a dislocation pileup in a coarse-grained polycrystalline, we optimized the dislocation population in MD simulations and developed a predict-correct method to create a dislocation pileup in MD simulations. MD simulations explored several kinetic processes of dislocations–GB reactions: grain boundary sliding, grain boundary migration, slip transmission, dislocation reflection, reconstruction of grain boundary, and the correlation ofmore » these kinetic processes with the available slip systems across the GB and atomic structures of the GB.« less

A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Race, Caitlin; Steinbach, Michael; Ganguly, Auroop R

2010-01-01

The connections among greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, global warming, and frequencies of hurricanes or tropical cyclones are among the least understood in climate science but among the most fiercely debated in the context of adaptation decisions or mitigation policies. Here we show that a knowledge discovery strategy, which leverages observations and climate model simulations, offers the promise of developing credible projections of tropical cyclones based on sea surface temperatures (SST) in a warming environment. While this study motivates the development of new methodologies in statistics and data mining, the ability to solve challenging climate science problems with innovative combinations of traditionalmore » and state-of-the-art methods is demonstrated. Here we develop new insights, albeit in a proof-of-concept sense, on the relationship between sea surface temperatures and hurricane frequencies, and generate the most likely projections with uncertainty bounds for storm counts in the 21st-century warming environment based in turn on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our preliminary insights point to the benefits that can be achieved for climate science and impacts analysis, as well as adaptation and mitigation policies, by a solution strategy that remains tailored to the climate domain and complements physics-based climate model simulations with a combination of existing and new computational and data science approaches.« less

New Orleans After Hurricane Katrina: An Unnatural Disaster?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, D.; Werner, B.; Kelso, A.

2005-12-01

Motivated by destruction in New Orleans following hurricane Katrina, we use a numerical model to explore how natural processes, economic development, hazard mitigation measures and policy decisions intertwine to produce long periods of quiescence punctuated by disasters of increasing magnitude. Physical, economic and policy dynamics are modeled on a grid representing the subsiding Mississippi Delta region surrounding New Orleans. Water flow and resulting sediment erosion and deposition are simulated in response to prescribed river floods and storms. Economic development operates on a limited number of commodities and services such as agricultural products, oil and chemical industries and port services, with investment and employment responding to both local conditions and global constraints. Development permitting, artificial levee construction and pumping are implemented by policy agents who weigh predicted economic benefits (tax revenue), mitigation costs and potential hazards. Economic risk is reduced by a combination of private insurance, federal flood insurance and disaster relief. With this model, we simulate the initiation and growth of New Orleans coupled with an increasing level of protection from a series of flooding events. Hazard mitigation filters out small magnitude events, but terrain and hydrological modifications amplify the impact of large events. In our model, "natural disasters" are the inevitable outcome of the mismatch between policy based on short-time-scale economic calculations and stochastic forcing by infrequent, high-magnitude flooding events. A comparison of the hazard mitigation response to river- and hurricane-induced flooding will be discussed. Supported by NSF Geology and Paleontology and the Andrew W Mellon Foundation.

Local and Remote Influences on Vertical Wind Shear over the Northern Tropical Atlantic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saravanan, R.; Zhu, X.

2009-12-01

Vertical wind shear is one of the most important parameters controlling the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes. It has been argued that in global warming scenarios, the mechanical effect of changing vertical wind shear may even trump the thermodynamic effect of increasing Atlantic sea surface temperatures, when it comes to projected trends in Atlantic hurricane activity. Despite its importance, little is known about the connection between vertical shear in the north Atlantic region and the global atmospheric circulation, apart from the well-known positive correlation with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we analyze the statistical relationship between vertical shear and features of the large-scale circulation such as the distribution of sea surface temperature and vertical motion. We examine whether this relationship is different on interannual timescales associated with ENSO as compared to the decadal timescales associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We also investigate how well the global general circulation models manage to simulate the observed vertical shear in this region, and its relationship to the large-scale circulation. Our analyses reveal an interesting sensitivity to air-sea coupling in model simulations of vertical shear. Another interesting property of vertical shear, as defined in the context of hurricane studies, is that it is positive definite, rather like precipitation. This means that it has a very nongaussian probability distribution on short timescales. We analyze how this nongaussianity changes when averaged over longer timescales.

U.S. IOOS coastal and ocean modeling testbed: Inter-model evaluation of tides, waves, and hurricane surge in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, P. C.; Donahue, A. S.; Westerink, J. J.; Luettich, R. A.; Zheng, L. Y.; Weisberg, R. H.; Huang, Y.; Wang, H. V.; Teng, Y.; Forrest, D. R.; Roland, A.; Haase, A. T.; Kramer, A. W.; Taylor, A. A.; Rhome, J. R.; Feyen, J. C.; Signell, R. P.; Hanson, J. L.; Hope, M. E.; Estes, R. M.; Dominguez, R. A.; Dunbar, R. P.; Semeraro, L. N.; Westerink, H. J.; Kennedy, A. B.; Smith, J. M.; Powell, M. D.; Cardone, V. J.; Cox, A. T.

2013-10-01

A Gulf of Mexico performance evaluation and comparison of coastal circulation and wave models was executed through harmonic analyses of tidal simulations, hindcasts of Hurricane Ike (2008) and Rita (2005), and a benchmarking study. Three unstructured coastal circulation models (ADCIRC, FVCOM, and SELFE) validated with similar skill on a new common Gulf scale mesh (ULLR) with identical frictional parameterization and forcing for the tidal validation and hurricane hindcasts. Coupled circulation and wave models, SWAN+ADCIRC and WWMII+SELFE, along with FVCOM loosely coupled with SWAN, also validated with similar skill. NOAA's official operational forecast storm surge model (SLOSH) was implemented on local and Gulf scale meshes with the same wind stress and pressure forcing used by the unstructured models for hindcasts of Ike and Rita. SLOSH's local meshes failed to capture regional processes such as Ike's forerunner and the results from the Gulf scale mesh further suggest shortcomings may be due to a combination of poor mesh resolution, missing internal physics such as tides and nonlinear advection, and SLOSH's internal frictional parameterization. In addition, these models were benchmarked to assess and compare execution speed and scalability for a prototypical operational simulation. It was apparent that a higher number of computational cores are needed for the unstructured models to meet similar operational implementation requirements to SLOSH, and that some of them could benefit from improved parallelization and faster execution speed.

The Use of Simulation to Reduce the Domain of "Black Swans" with Application to Hurricane Impacts to Power Systems.

PubMed

Berner, Christine L; Staid, Andrea; Flage, Roger; Guikema, Seth D

2017-10-01

Recently, the concept of black swans has gained increased attention in the fields of risk assessment and risk management. Different types of black swans have been suggested, distinguishing between unknown unknowns (nothing in the past can convincingly point to its occurrence), unknown knowns (known to some, but not to relevant analysts), or known knowns where the probability of occurrence is judged as negligible. Traditional risk assessments have been questioned, as their standard probabilistic methods may not be capable of predicting or even identifying these rare and extreme events, thus creating a source of possible black swans. In this article, we show how a simulation model can be used to identify previously unknown potentially extreme events that if not identified and treated could occur as black swans. We show that by manipulating a verified and validated model used to predict the impacts of hazards on a system of interest, we can identify hazard conditions not previously experienced that could lead to impacts much larger than any previous level of impact. This makes these potential black swan events known and allows risk managers to more fully consider them. We demonstrate this method using a model developed to evaluate the effect of hurricanes on energy systems in the United States; we identify hurricanes with potentially extreme impacts, storms well beyond what the historic record suggests is possible in terms of impacts. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

PubMed Central

Moore, John C.; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran; Yu, Xiaoyong; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rinke, Annette; Cui, Xuefeng; Kravitz, Ben; Lenton, Andrew; Watanabe, Shingo; Ji, Duoying

2015-01-01

Devastating floods due to Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However, the frequency of the most intense storms is likely to increase with rises in sea surface temperatures. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane Main Development Region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may mitigate hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using eight earth system model simulations of climate under the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those temperature increases in the RCP4.5. However, sulfate injection would have to double (to nearly 10 teragrams of SO2 per year) between 2020 and 2070 to balance the RCP4.5, approximately the equivalent of a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 2 y, with consequent implications for stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent generalized extreme value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges and observed temperatures since 1923. The number of storm surge events as big as the one caused by the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this reduction is only marginally statistically significant. Nevertheless, when sea level rise differences in 2070 between the RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored into coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5-y events and about halved for 50-y surges. PMID:26504210

Wind Retrieval Algorithms for the IWRAP and HIWRAP Airborne Doppler Radars with Applications to Hurricanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guimond, Stephen Richard; Tian, Lin; Heymsfield, Gerald M.; Frasier, Stephen J.

2013-01-01

Algorithms for the retrieval of atmospheric winds in precipitating systems from downward-pointing, conically-scanning airborne Doppler radars are presented. The focus in the paper is on two radars: the Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler(IWRAP) and the High-altitude IWRAP (HIWRAP). The IWRAP is a dual-frequency (Cand Ku band), multi-beam (incidence angles of 30 50) system that flies on the NOAAWP-3D aircraft at altitudes of 2-4 km. The HIWRAP is a dual-frequency (Ku and Kaband), dual-beam (incidence angles of 30 and 40) system that flies on the NASA Global Hawk aircraft at altitudes of 18-20 km. Retrievals of the three Cartesian wind components over the entire radar sampling volume are described, which can be determined using either a traditional least squares or variational solution procedure. The random errors in the retrievals are evaluated using both an error propagation analysis and a numerical simulation of a hurricane. These analyses show that the vertical and along-track wind errors have strong across-track dependence with values of 0.25 m s-1 at nadir to 2.0 m s-1 and 1.0 m s-1 at the swath edges, respectively. The across-track wind errors also have across-track structure and are on average, 3.0 3.5 m s-1 or 10 of the hurricane wind speed. For typical rotated figure four flight patterns through hurricanes, the zonal and meridional wind speed errors are 2 3 m s-1.Examples of measured data retrievals from IWRAP during an eyewall replacement cycle in Hurricane Isabel (2003) and from HIWRAP during the development of Tropical Storm Matthew (2010) are shown.

A comparison between EDA-EnVar and ETKF-EnVar data assimilation techniques using radar observations at convective scales through a case study of Hurricane Ike (2008)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Feifei; Xu, Dongmei; Xue, Ming; Min, Jinzhong

2017-07-01

This study examines the impacts of assimilating radar radial velocity (Vr) data for the simulation of hurricane Ike (2008) with two different ensemble generation techniques in the framework of the hybrid ensemble-variational (EnVar) data assimilation system of Weather Research and Forecasting model. For the generation of ensemble perturbations we apply two techniques, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) and the ensemble of data assimilation (EDA). For the ETKF-EnVar, the forecast ensemble perturbations are updated by the ETKF, while for the EDA-EnVar, the hybrid is employed to update each ensemble member with perturbed observations. The ensemble mean is analyzed by the hybrid method with flow-dependent ensemble covariance for both EnVar. The sensitivity of analyses and forecasts to the two applied ensemble generation techniques is investigated in our current study. It is found that the EnVar system is rather stable with different ensemble update techniques in terms of its skill on improving the analyses and forecasts. The EDA-EnVar-based ensemble perturbations are likely to include slightly less organized spatial structures than those in ETKF-EnVar, and the perturbations of the latter are constructed more dynamically. Detailed diagnostics reveal that both of the EnVar schemes not only produce positive temperature increments around the hurricane center but also systematically adjust the hurricane location with the hurricane-specific error covariance. On average, the analysis and forecast from the ETKF-EnVar have slightly smaller errors than that from the EDA-EnVar in terms of track, intensity, and precipitation forecast. Moreover, ETKF-EnVar yields better forecasts when verified against conventional observations.

Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes.

PubMed

Jung, Kiju; Shavitt, Sharon; Viswanathan, Madhu; Hilbe, Joseph M

2014-06-17

Do people judge hurricane risks in the context of gender-based expectations? We use more than six decades of death rates from US hurricanes to show that feminine-named hurricanes cause significantly more deaths than do masculine-named hurricanes. Laboratory experiments indicate that this is because hurricane names lead to gender-based expectations about severity and this, in turn, guides respondents' preparedness to take protective action. This finding indicates an unfortunate and unintended consequence of the gendered naming of hurricanes, with important implications for policymakers, media practitioners, and the general public concerning hurricane communication and preparedness.

Simulation of the Genesis of Hurricane Javier (2004) in the Eastern Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott

2005-01-01

NASA is preparing for the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) field experiment in July 2005, a joint effort with NOAA to study tropical cloud systems and tropical cyclone genesis in the Eastern Pacific. A major thrust of the TCSP program is the improvement of the understanding and prediction of tropical cyclone genesis, intensity, motion, rainfall potential, and landfall impacts using remote sensing and in-situ data, as well as numerical modeling, particularly as they relate to the three phases of water. The Eastern Pacific has the highest frequency of genesis events per unit area of any region worldwide. African easterly waves, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and orographic effects are thought to play roles in the genesis of tropical cyclones there. The general consensus is that tropical depressions form in association with one or more mid-level, mesoscale cyclonic vortices that are generated within the stratiform region of the MCS precursors. To create the warm core tropical depression vortex, however, the midlevel cyclonic circulation must somehow extend down to the surface and the tangential winds must attain sufficient strength (-10 m s- ) to enable the wind-induced surface heat exchange to increase the potential energy of the boundary layer air.

Satellite-enhanced dynamical downscaling for the analysis of extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Ana M. B.

2016-09-01

The use of regional models in the downscaling of general circulation models provides a strategy to generate more detailed climate information. In that case, boundary-forcing techniques can be useful to maintain the large-scale features from the coarse-resolution global models in agreement with the inner modes of the higher-resolution regional models. Although those procedures might improve dynamics, downscaling via regional modeling still aims for better representation of physical processes. With the purpose of improving dynamics and physical processes in regional downscaling of global reanalysis, the Regional Spectral Model—originally developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction—employs a newly reformulated scale-selective bias correction, together with the 3-hourly assimilation of the satellite-based precipitation estimates constructed from the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique. The two-scheme technique for the dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis can be applied in analyses of environmental disasters and risk assessment, with hourly outputs, and resolution of about 25 km. Here the satellite-enhanced dynamical downscaling added value is demonstrated in simulations of the first reported hurricane in the western South Atlantic Ocean basin through comparisons with global reanalyses and satellite products available in ocean areas.

Use of the Aerosonde Unihabited Aerial Vehicle (UAV) in the Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX 4)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hipskind, R. Stephen; Curry, Judy; Holland, Greg

2001-01-01

The Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX 4) was a scientific field experiment based in Florida in summer 2001 focused on the study of hurricanes off the east coast of the United States. Sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Office of Earth Science, and conducted in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's annual hurricane research program, CAMEX 4 utilized aircraft, ground-based and satellite instrumentation to obtain unprecedented, three dimensional characterizations of these important storms. The Aerosonde UAV was selected by NASA to participate in CAMEX 4 because it provided a unique capability to obtain measurements in the atmospheric boundary layer in and around the storms, unattainable by other platforms or measurement capabilities. This talk focuses on the NASA review process that was followed to coordinate the UAV activity with the conventional aircraft operations, as well as with the other participating agencies and the FAA. We will discuss how Aerosonde addressed the issues of safety, coordination and communication and summarize the lessons learned.

GETIT--Geoscience Education through Interactive Technology[TM]. [CD-ROM].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

2000

This CD-ROM uses catastrophic events to teach the fundamentals of the earth's dynamism. Topics discussed include earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, plate tectonics, and many subjects that have to do with energy transfer. It contains 63 interactive, inquiry-based activities that closely simulate real life scientific practice. Students work with…

Hurricane Georges' Landfall in the Dominican Republic: Detailed Airborne Doppler Radar Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geerts, B.; Heymsfield, G. M.; Tian, L.; Halverson, J. B.; Guillory, A.; Mejia, M. I.

1999-01-01

Current understanding of landfalling tropical cyclones is limited, especially with regard to convective scale processes. On 22 September 1998 Hurricane Georges made landfall on the island of Hispaniola, leaving behind a trail of death and devastation, largely the result of excessive rainfall, not sea level surge or wind. Detailed airborne measurements were taken as part of the Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3). Of Particular interest are the ER-2 nadir X-band Doppler radar (EDOP) data, which provide a first-time high-resolution view of the precipitation and airflow changes as a hurricane interacts with mountainous terrain. The circulation of hurricane Georges underwent an obvious transition during landfall, evident in the rapid increase in minimum sea-level pressure, the subsidence of the eyewall anvil, and a decrease in average ice concentrations in the eyewall. The eye, as seen in satellite imagery, disappeared, but contrary to current understanding, this was not due to eyewall contraction but rather to convective eruption within the eye. The main convective event within the eye, with upper-level updraft magnitudes near 20 m/s and 89 GHz brightness temperatures below 100 K, occurred when the eye moved over the Cordillera Central, the island's main mountain chain. The location, intensity and evolution of this convection indicate that it was coupled to the surface orography. It is likely that surface rain rates increased during landfall, because of effective droplet collection, both in the convection and in the more widespread stratiform rainfall areas over the island. Evidence for this is the increase in radar reflectivity below the bright band of 1-2 dB/km down to ground-level. Such increase was absent offshore. Such low-level rain enhancement, which cannot be detected in satellite images of upwelling infrared or microwave radiation, must be due to the ascent of boundary-layer air over the topography.

Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes

PubMed Central

Jung, Kiju; Shavitt, Sharon; Viswanathan, Madhu; Hilbe, Joseph M.

2014-01-01

Do people judge hurricane risks in the context of gender-based expectations? We use more than six decades of death rates from US hurricanes to show that feminine-named hurricanes cause significantly more deaths than do masculine-named hurricanes. Laboratory experiments indicate that this is because hurricane names lead to gender-based expectations about severity and this, in turn, guides respondents’ preparedness to take protective action. This finding indicates an unfortunate and unintended consequence of the gendered naming of hurricanes, with important implications for policymakers, media practitioners, and the general public concerning hurricane communication and preparedness. PMID:24889620

Model Improvement by Assimilating Observations of Storm-Induced Coastal Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, J. W.; Plant, N. G.; Sopkin, K.

2010-12-01

Discrete, large scale, meteorological events such as hurricanes can cause wide-spread destruction of coastal islands, habitats, and infrastructure. The effects can vary significantly along the coast depending on the configuration of the coastline, variable dune elevations, changes in geomorphology (sandy beach vs. marshland), and alongshore variations in storm hydrodynamic forcing. There are two primary methods of determining the changing state of a coastal system. Process-based numerical models provide highly resolved (in space and time) representations of the dominant dynamics in a physical system but must employ certain parameterizations due to computational limitations. The predictive capability may also suffer from the lack of reliable initial or boundary conditions. On the other hand, observations of coastal topography before and after the storm allow the direct quantification of cumulative storm impacts. Unfortunately these measurements suffer from instrument noise and a lack of necessary temporal resolution. This research focuses on the combination of these two pieces of information to make more reliable forecasts of storm-induced coastal change. Of primary importance is the development of a data assimilation strategy that is efficient, applicable for use with highly nonlinear models, and able to quantify the remaining forecast uncertainty based on the reliability of each individual piece of information used in the assimilation process. We concentrate on an event time-scale and estimate/update unobserved model information (boundary conditions, free parameters, etc.) by assimilating direct observations of coastal change with those simulated by the model. The data assimilation can help estimate spatially varying quantities (e.g. friction coefficients) that are often modeled as homogeneous and identify processes inadequately characterized in the model.

Planetary Boundary Layer Simulation Using TASS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schowalter, David G.; DeCroix, David S.; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Arya, S. Pal; Kaplan, Michael

1996-01-01

Boundary conditions to an existing large-eddy simulation model have been changed in order to simulate turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer. Several options are now available, including the use of a surface energy balance. In addition, we compare convective boundary layer simulations with the Wangara and Minnesota field experiments as well as with other model results. We find excellent agreement of modelled mean profiles of wind and temperature with observations and good agreement for velocity variances. Neutral boundary simulation results are compared with theory and with previously used models. Agreement with theory is reasonable, while agreement with previous models is excellent.

Hurricane intensification along United States coast suppressed during active hurricane periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossin, James P.

2017-01-01

The North Atlantic ocean/atmosphere environment exhibits pronounced interdecadal variability that is known to strongly modulate Atlantic hurricane activity. Variability in sea surface temperature (SST) is correlated with hurricane variability through its relationship with the genesis and thermodynamic potential intensity of hurricanes. Another key factor that governs the genesis and intensity of hurricanes is ambient environmental vertical wind shear (VWS). Warmer SSTs generally correlate with more frequent genesis and greater potential intensity, while VWS inhibits genesis and prevents any hurricanes that do form from reaching their potential intensity. When averaged over the main hurricane-development region in the Atlantic, SST and VWS co-vary inversely, so that the two factors act in concert to either enhance or inhibit basin-wide hurricane activity. Here I show, however, that conditions conducive to greater basin-wide Atlantic hurricane activity occur together with conditions for more probable weakening of hurricanes near the United States coast. Thus, the VWS and SST form a protective barrier along the United States coast during periods of heightened basin-wide hurricane activity. Conversely, during the most-recent period of basin-wide quiescence, hurricanes (and particularly major hurricanes) near the United States coast, although substantially less frequent, exhibited much greater variability in their rate of intensification, and were much more likely to intensify rapidly. Such heightened variability poses greater challenges to operational forecasting and, consequently, greater coastal risk during hurricane events.

Response of a tethered aerostat to simulated turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanney, Keith A.; Rahn, Christopher D.

2006-09-01

Aerostats are lighter-than-air vehicles tethered to the ground by a cable and used for broadcasting, communications, surveillance, and drug interdiction. The dynamic response of tethered aerostats subject to extreme atmospheric turbulence often dictates survivability. This paper develops a theoretical model that predicts the planar response of a tethered aerostat subject to atmospheric turbulence and simulates the response to 1000 simulated hurricane scale turbulent time histories. The aerostat dynamic model assumes the aerostat hull to be a rigid body with non-linear fluid loading, instantaneous weathervaning for planar response, and a continuous tether. Galerkin's method discretizes the coupled aerostat and tether partial differential equations to produce a non-linear initial value problem that is integrated numerically given initial conditions and wind inputs. The proper orthogonal decomposition theorem generates, based on Hurricane Georges wind data, turbulent time histories that possess the sequential behavior of actual turbulence, are spectrally accurate, and have non-Gaussian density functions. The generated turbulent time histories are simulated to predict the aerostat response to severe turbulence. The resulting probability distributions for the aerostat position, pitch angle, and confluence point tension predict the aerostat behavior in high gust environments. The dynamic results can be up to twice as large as a static analysis indicating the importance of dynamics in aerostat modeling. The results uncover a worst case wind input consisting of a two-pulse vertical gust.

Modeling Street-Level Inundation in Galveston, Texas City, and Houston during 2008 Hurricane Ike: Now and Implications for the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loftis, D.

2016-02-01

In the wake of Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Ike (2008) is the second most devastating tropical cyclone to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico in recent history. The path of the eye of Hurricane Ike passing directly over the Galveston's City Center requires the finesse of a street-level hydrodynamic model to accurately resolve the spatial inundation extent observed during the storm. A version of the Holland wind model was coupled with a sub-grid hydrodynamic model to address the complexity of spatially-varying hurricane force winds on the irregular movement of fluid though the streets of the coastal cities adjacent to the Galveston Bay. Sub-grid modeling technology is useful for incorporating high-resolution lidar-derived elevation measurements into the conventional hydrodynamic modeling framework to resolve detailed topographic features for inclusion in a hydrological transport model for storm surge simulations. Buildings were mosaicked into a lidar-derived Digital Surface Model at 5m spatial resolution for the study area, and in turn, embedded within a sub-grid layer of the hydrodynamic model mesh in a cross-scale approach to address the movement of Ike's storm surge from the Gulf of Mexico through the Galveston Bay, up estuaries and onto land. Model predictions for timing and depth of flooding during Hurricane Ike were compared with 8 verified water level gauges throughout the study area to evaluate the effectiveness of the sub-grid model's partial wetting and drying scheme. Statistical comparison yielded a mean R2 of 0.914, a relative error of 4.19%, and a root-mean-squared error of 19.47cm. A rigorous point-to-point comparison between street-level model results and 217 high water mark observations collected by the USGS and FEMA at several sites after the storm revealed that the model predicted the depth of inundation comparably well with an aggregate root-mean-squared error 0.283m. Finally, sea-level rise scenarios using Hurricane Ike as a base case revealed future storm-induced inundation could extend 0.6-2.8 km inland corresponding to increases in mean sea level of 37.5-150 cm based upon IPCC climate change prediction scenarios specified in their 5th assessment report in 2013.

Tornado outbreaks associated with landfalling hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin: 1954 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verbout, S. M.; Schultz, D. M.; Leslie, L. M.; Brooks, H. E.; Karoly, D. J.; Elmore, K. L.

2007-08-01

Tornadoes are a notable potential hazard associated with landfalling hurricanes. The purpose of this paper is to discriminate hurricanes that produce numerous tornadoes (tornado outbreaks) from those that do not (nonoutbreaks). The data consists of all hurricane landfalls that affected the United States from the North Atlantic basin from 1954 to 2004 and the United States tornado record over the same period. Because of the more than twofold increase in the number of reported tornadoes over these 51 years, a simple least-squares linear regression (“the expected number of tornadoes”) was fit to the annual number of tornado reports to represent a baseline for comparison. The hurricanes were sorted into three categories. The first category, outbreak hurricanes, was determined by hurricanes associated with the number of tornado reports exceeding a threshold of 1.5% of the annual expected number of tornadoes and at least 8 F1 and greater tornadoes during the time of landfall (from outer rainbands reaching shore to dissipation of the system). Eighteen hurricane landfalls were classified as outbreak hurricanes. Second, 37 hurricanes having less than 0.5% of the annual expected number of tornadoes were classified as nonoutbreak landfalls. Finally, 28 hurricanes that were neither outbreak nor nonoutbreak hurricanes were classified as midclass hurricane landfalls. Stronger hurricanes are more likely to produce tornado outbreaks than weaker hurricanes. While 78% of outbreak hurricanes were category 2 or greater at landfall, only 32% of nonoutbreak hurricanes were category 2 or greater at landfall. Hurricanes that made landfall along the southern coast of the United States and recurved northeastward were more likely to produce tornadoes than those that made landfall along the east coast or those that made landfall along the southern coast but did not recurve. Recurvature was associated with a 500-hPa trough in the jet stream, which also contributed to increased deep-layer shear through the hurricane, favoring mesocyclogenesis, and increased the low-level shear, favoring tornadogenesis. The origin of the hurricane, date of landfall, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation phase do not appear to be factors in outbreak hurricane creation. The results of this study help clarify inconsistencies in the previous literature regarding tornado occurrences in landfalling hurricanes.

COMMUNITY COLLEGE RE-ENROLLMENT AFTER HURRICANE KATRINA

PubMed Central

LOWE, SARAH R.; RHODES, JEAN E.

2013-01-01

In this study, we explored predictors of community college re-enrollment after Hurricane Katrina among a sample of low-income women (N = 221). It was predicted that participants’ pre-hurricane educational optimism would predict community college re-enrollment a year after the hurricane. The influence of various demographic and additional resources (e.g., social support, childcare, hours of employment, psychological well-being) was also explored. High levels of pre- and post-hurricane educational optimism were significant predictors of re-enrollment, as were lower post-hurricane psychological distress and fewer post-hurricane hours employed. In addition, experiencing a greater number of moves since the hurricane was a marginally significant predictor of post-hurricane re-enrollment. PMID:23457425

Numerical Evaluation of Storm Surge Indices for Public Advisory Purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bass, B.; Bedient, P. B.; Dawson, C.; Proft, J.

2016-12-01

After the devastating hurricane season of 2005, shortcomings with the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale's (SSHS) ability to characterize a tropical cyclones potential to generate storm surge became widely apparent. As a result, several alternative surge indices were proposed to replace the SSHS, including Powell and Reinhold's Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) factor, Kantha's Hurricane Surge Index (HSI), and Irish and Resio's Surge Scale (SS). Of the previous, the IKE factor is the only surge index to-date that truly captures a tropical cyclones integrated intensity, size, and wind field distribution. However, since the IKE factor was proposed in 2007, an accurate assessment of this surge index has not been performed. This study provides the first quantitative evaluation of the IKEs ability to serve as a predictor of a tropical cyclones potential surge impacts as compared to other alternative surge indices. Using the tightly coupled ADvanced CIRCulation and Simulating WAves Nearshore models, the surge and wave responses of Hurricane Ike (2008) and 78 synthetic tropical cyclones were evaluated against the SSHS, IKE, HSI and SS. Results along the upper TX coast of the Gulf of Mexico demonstrate that the HSI performs best in capturing the peak surge response of a tropical cyclone, while the IKE accounting for winds greater than tropical storm intensity (IKETS) provides the most accurate estimate of a tropical cyclones regional surge impacts. These results demonstrate that the appropriate selection of a surge index ultimately depends on what information is of interest to be conveyed to the public and/or scientific community.

Hurricane Safety and Information - Central Pacific Hurricane Center -

Science.gov Websites

NOAA NWS United States Department of Commerce Central Pacific Hurricane Center National Oceanic and Distance Calculator Blank Tracking Maps ▾ Educational Resources Be Prepared! NWS Hurricane Prep Week Search For Go NWS All NOAA ▾ Hurricane Safety Hurricane Awareness Week Information from CPHC Red Cross

The effects of sea spray and atmosphere-wave coupling on air-sea exchange during a tropical cyclone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garg, Nikhil; Kwee Ng, Eddie Yin; Narasimalu, Srikanth

2018-04-01

The study investigates the role of the air-sea interface using numerical simulations of Hurricane Arthur (2014) in the Atlantic. More specifically, the present study aims to discern the role ocean surface waves and sea spray play in modulating the intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone (TC). To investigate the effects of ocean surface waves and sea spray, numerical simulations were carried out using a coupled atmosphere-wave model, whereby a sea spray microphysical model was incorporated within the coupled model. Furthermore, this study also explores how sea spray generation can be modelled using wave energy dissipation due to whitecaps; whitecaps are considered as the primary mode of spray droplets generation at hurricane intensity wind speeds. Three different numerical simulations including the sea- state-dependent momentum flux, the sea-spray-mediated heat flux, and a combination of the former two processes with the sea-spray-mediated momentum flux were conducted. The foregoing numerical simulations were evaluated against the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoy and satellite altimeter measurements as well as a control simulation using an uncoupled atmosphere model. The results indicate that the model simulations were able to capture the storm track and intensity: the surface wave coupling results in a stronger TC. Moreover, it is also noted that when only spray-mediated heat fluxes are applied in conjunction with the sea-state-dependent momentum flux, they result in a slightly weaker TC, albeit stronger compared to the control simulation. However, when a spray-mediated momentum flux is applied together with spray heat fluxes, it results in a comparably stronger TC. The results presented here allude to the role surface friction plays in the intensification of a TC.

Simulating vegetation controls on hurricane-induced shallow landslides with a distributed ecohydrological model

Treesearch

Taehee Hwang; Lawrence E. Band; T. C. Hales; Chelcy F. Miniat; James M. Vose; Paul V. Bolstad; Brian Miles; Katie Price

2015-01-01

The spatial distribution of shallow landslides in steep forested mountains is strongly controlled by aboveground and belowground biomass, including the distribution of root cohesion. While remote sensing of aboveground canopy properties is relatively advanced, estimating the spatial distribution of root cohesion at the forest landscape scale remains challenging. We...

Process-based model predictions of hurricane induced morphodynamic change on low-lying barrier islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.; Elias, Edwin; Wang, Ping; Rosati, Julie D.; Roberts, Tiffany M.

2011-01-01

Using Delft3D, a Chandeleur Island model was constructed to examine the sediment-transport patterns and morphodynamic change caused by Hurricane Katrina and similar storm events. The model setup included a coarse Gulf of Mexico domain and a nested finer-resolution Chandeleur Island domain. The finer-resolution domain resolved morphodynamic processes driven by storms and tides. A sensitivity analysis of the simulated morphodynamic response was performed to investigate the effects of variations in surge levels. The Chandeleur morphodynamic model reproduced several important features that matched observed morphodynamic changes. A simulation of bathymetric change driven by storm surge alone (no waves) along the central portion of the Chandeleur Islands showed (1) a general landward retreat and lowering of the island chain and (2) multiple breaches that increased the degree of island dissection. The locations of many of the breaches correspond with the low-lying or narrow sections of the initial bathymetry. The major part of the morphological change occurred prior to the peak of the surge when overtopping of the islands produced a strong water-level gradient and induced significant flow velocities.

Tracking a Superstorm

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Oct. 29, 2012 – A day before landfall, Sandy intensified into a Category 2 superstorm nearly 1,000 miles wide. Credit: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center and NASA Center for Climate Simulation Video and images courtesy of NASA/GSFC/William Putman -- A NASA computer model simulates the astonishing track and forceful winds of Hurricane Sandy. Hurricane Sandy pummeled the East Coast late in 2012’s Atlantic hurricane season, causing 159 deaths and $70 billion in damages. Days before landfall, forecasts of its trajectory were still being made. Some computer models showed that a trough in the jet stream would kick the monster storm away from land and out to sea. Among the earliest to predict its true course was NASA’s GEOS-5 global atmosphere model. The model works by dividing Earth’s atmosphere into a virtual grid of stacked boxes. A supercomputer then solves mathematical equations inside each box to create a weather forecast predicting Sandy’s structure, path and other traits. The NASA model not only produced an accurate track of Sandy, but also captured fine-scale details of the storm’s changing intensity and winds. Watch the video to see it for yourself. For more information, please visit: gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/atmosphericassim/tracking_hur... NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, S.C.; Alizad, K.A.; Medeiros, S.C.; Passeri, Davina L.; Needham, H.F.; Cox, A.

2016-01-01

This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static (“bathtub”) modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

Quantifying the Hurricane Risk to Offshore Wind Power (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apt, J.; Rose, S.; Jaramillo, P.; Small, M.

2013-12-01

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. Whether that risk will grow as a result of climate change is uncertain. Recent years have seen an increase in hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin (1) and, all else being equal, warmer sea surface temperatures can be expected to lead to increased storm intensity. We have developed a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes (2). In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously due to hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. 1. Iris Grossmann and M. Granger Morgan, "Tropical Cyclones, Climate Change, and Scientific Uncertainty: What do we know, what does it mean, and what should be done?," Climatic Change, 108, pp 543-579, 2011. 2. Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center Working Paper CEIC-13-07, http://wpweb2.tepper.cmu.edu/electricity/papers/ceic-13-07.asp This work was supported in part by the EPA STAR fellowship program, a grant from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and EPRI to the Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center, and by the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, the R.K. Mellon Foundation and the Heinz Endowments for support of the RenewElec program at Carnegie Mellon University. This research was also supported in part by the Climate and Energy Decision Making (CEDM) center created through a cooperative agreement between the National Science Foundation (SES-0949710) and Carnegie Mellon University.

Hurricane Research Division of AOML/NOAA

Science.gov Websites

Statement The mission of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (HRD) is to advance the understanding and Learn More. What's New Links of Interest Hurricane Field Program Current Hurricane Data Hurricane FAQ

Hurricane Imaging Radiometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cecil, Daniel J.; James, Mark W.; Roberts, J. Brent; Bisawas, Sayak K.; Jones, W. Linwood; Johnson, James; Farrar, Spencer; Sahawneh, Saleem; Ruf, Christopher S.; Morris, Mary;

Exploring Dust Impacts on Tropical Systems from the NASA HS-3 Field Campaign

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowottnick, Ed; Colarco, Pete; da Silva, Arlindo; Barahona, Donifan; Hlavka, Dennis

2015-01-01

One of the overall scientific goals of the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS-3) field campaign is to better understand the role of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in tropical storm development. During the 2012 HS-3 deployment, the Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) observed dust within SAL air in close proximity to a developing Nadine (September 11, 2012). Throughout the mission, the NASA GEOS-5 modeling system supported HS-3 by providing 0.25 degrees resolution 5-day global forecasts of aerosols, which were used to support mission planning. The aerosol module was radiatively interactive within the GEOS-5 model, but aerosols were not directly coupled to cloud and precipitation processes. In this study we revisit the aerosol forecasts with an updated version of the GEOS-5 model. For the duration of Hurricane Nadine, we run multiday climate simulations leading up to each respective Global Hawk flight with and without aerosol direct interaction. For each set of simulations, we compare simulated dust mass fluxes to identify differences in SAL entrainment related to the interaction between dust aerosols and the atmosphere. We find that the direct effects of dust induce a low level anticyclonic circulation that temporarily shields Nadine from the intrusion of dry air, leading to a more intense storm.

A review of multimodel superensemble forecasting for weather, seasonal climate, and hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurti, T. N.; Kumar, V.; Simon, A.; Bhardwaj, A.; Ghosh, T.; Ross, R.

2016-06-01

This review provides a summary of work in the area of ensemble forecasts for weather, climate, oceans, and hurricanes. This includes a combination of multiple forecast model results that does not dwell on the ensemble mean but uses a unique collective bias reduction procedure. A theoretical framework for this procedure is provided, utilizing a suite of models that is constructed from the well-known Lorenz low-order nonlinear system. A tutorial that includes a walk-through table and illustrates the inner workings of the multimodel superensemble's principle is provided. Systematic errors in a single deterministic model arise from a host of features that range from the model's initial state (data assimilation), resolution, representation of physics, dynamics, and ocean processes, local aspects of orography, water bodies, and details of the land surface. Models, in their diversity of representation of such features, end up leaving unique signatures of systematic errors. The multimodel superensemble utilizes as many as 10 million weights to take into account the bias errors arising from these diverse features of multimodels. The design of a single deterministic forecast models that utilizes multiple features from the use of the large volume of weights is provided here. This has led to a better understanding of the error growths and the collective bias reductions for several of the physical parameterizations within diverse models, such as cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer physics, and radiative transfer. A number of examples for weather, seasonal climate, hurricanes and sub surface oceanic forecast skills of member models, the ensemble mean, and the superensemble are provided.

Recovery from PTSD following Hurricane Katrina

PubMed Central

McLaughlin, Katie A.; Berglund, Patricia; Gruber, Michael J.; Kessler, Ronald C.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Zaslavsky, Alan M.

2011-01-01

Background We examined patterns and correlates of speed of recovery of estimated posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among people who developed PTSD in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Method A probability sample of pre-hurricane residents of areas affected by Hurricane Katrina was administered a telephone survey 7-19 months following the hurricane and again 24-27 months post-hurricane. The baseline survey assessed PTSD using a validated screening scale and assessed a number of hypothesized predictors of PTSD recovery that included socio-demographics, pre-hurricane history of psychopathology, hurricane-related stressors, social support, and social competence. Exposure to post-hurricane stressors and course of estimated PTSD were assessed in a follow-up interview. Results An estimated 17.1% of respondents had a history of estimated hurricane-related PTSD at baseline and 29.2% by the follow-up survey. Of the respondents who developed estimated hurricane-related PTSD, 39.0% recovered by the time of the follow-up survey with a mean duration of 16.5 months. Predictors of slow recovery included exposure to a life-threatening situation, hurricane-related housing adversity, and high income. Other socio-demographics, history of psychopathology, social support, social competence, and post-hurricane stressors were unrelated to recovery from estimated PTSD. Conclusions The majority of adults who developed estimated PTSD after Hurricane Katrina did not recover within 18-27 months. Delayed onset was common. Findings document the importance of initial trauma exposure severity in predicting course of illness and suggest that pre- and post-trauma factors typically associated with course of estimated PTSD did not influence recovery following Hurricane Katrina. PMID:21308887

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ross, R.J.; Kurihara, Y.

The influence of Hurricane Gloria (1985) on the environment is investigated by comparing hurricane model integrations either including or excluding the hurricane in the initial condition. Results for three cases of Gloria at different states of development are presented. The hurricane`s cumulative influence is identified as the differences between the hurricane and nonhurricane integrations. Throughout the integration period, area with sea level pressure differences exceeding 1 hPa in magnitude expanded in each of the three cases and was centered at the hurricane location. The influence radius of the storm, which was determined from the sea level pressure difference field, eventuallymore » reached approximately 1500 km in all cases. Comparisons of the sea level pressure differences among the three cases showed that the expansion rate differed for each case but was only weakly related to the intensity or intensity change of the particular storm. The comparisons of the wind and temperature fields from the hurricane and nonhurricane integrations indicated that the areal extent of the hurricane`s influence was much larger at the upper layer than at the lower layer. A stronger anticyclonic circulation and relatively warmer temperatures developed at the upper layer in the hurricane integration compared to the nonhurricane fields. These upper-layer changes extended over an area comparable in size with the sea level pressure differences. At the lower layer, the differences between the hurricane and nonhurricane wind and temperature fields showed the impact of hurricane on the passage of a cold front over the eastern United States. Apparently, the hurricane`s cyclonic circulation at the lower layer affected the movement of the front approaching from the west.« less

Hurricane Charley Exposure and Hazard of Preterm Delivery, Florida 2004.

PubMed

Grabich, Shannon C; Robinson, Whitney R; Engel, Stephanie M; Konrad, Charles E; Richardson, David B; Horney, Jennifer A

2016-12-01

Objective Hurricanes are powerful tropical storm systems with high winds which influence many health effects. Few studies have examined whether hurricane exposure is associated with preterm delivery. We aimed to estimate associations between maternal hurricane exposure and hazard of preterm delivery. Methods We used data on 342,942 singleton births from Florida Vital Statistics Records 2004-2005 to capture pregnancies at risk of delivery during the 2004 hurricane season. Maternal exposure to Hurricane Charley was assigned based on maximum wind speed in maternal county of residence. We estimated hazards of overall preterm delivery (<37 gestational weeks) and extremely preterm delivery (<32 gestational weeks) in Cox regression models, adjusting for maternal/pregnancy characteristics. To evaluate heterogeneity among racial/ethnic subgroups, we performed analyses stratified by race/ethnicity. Additional models investigated whether exposure to multiples hurricanes increased hazard relative to exposure to one hurricane. Results Exposure to wind speeds ≥39 mph from Hurricane Charley was associated with a 9 % (95 % CI 3, 16 %) increase in hazard of extremely preterm delivery, while exposure to wind speed ≥74 mph was associated with a 21 % (95 % CI 6, 38 %) increase. Associations appeared greater for Hispanic mothers compared to non-Hispanic white mothers. Hurricane exposure did not appear to be associated with hazard of overall preterm delivery. Exposure to multiple hurricanes did not appear more harmful than exposure to a single hurricane. Conclusions Hurricane exposure may increase hazard of extremely preterm delivery. As US coastal populations and hurricane severity increase, the associations between hurricane and preterm delivery should be further studied.

An Examination of Hurricane Emergency Preparedness Planning at Institutions of Higher Learning of the Gulf South Region Post Hurricane Katrina

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ventura, Caterina Gulli

2010-01-01

The purpose of the study was to examine hurricane emergency preparedness planning at institutions of higher learning of the Gulf South region following Hurricane Katrina. The problem addressed the impact of Hurricane Katrina on decision-making and policy planning processes. The focus was on individuals that administer the hurricane emergency…

Characterizing the Precipitation Processes in Hurricane Karl (2010) Through Analysis of Airborne Doppler Radar Data and Numerical Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeHart, J.; Houze, R.

2016-12-01

Airborne radar data and numerical simulations are employed to investigate the structure of Hurricane Karl (2010). Karl peaked in intensity as a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall on the mountainous coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Multiple aircraft extensively sampled Karl during the NASA GRIP campaign, including NASA's DC-8 aircraft instrumented with the Advanced Precipitation Radar 2 (APR-2), which is a high-resolution, dual-frequency Doppler radar. Data from APR-2 provide a unique opportunity to characterize the precipitation structure of Karl as it underwent orographic modification. As Karl made landfall on 17 September 2010, the vertical structure of the precipitation echo varied spatially around the Mexican terrain. The precipitation variation was linked to several factors: landfall, orientation of flow relative to the topographic features, and differing characteristics inherent to the eyewall and rainbands. Despite the differences in the reflectivity intensity across the storm, we show that low-level reflectivity enhancement occurred only where upslope flow was favorable. The radar data indicate that the processes initially contributing to the reflectivity enhancement were warm-cloud processes, either through collection of orographically-generated cloud water or shallow convection. But as Karl weakened, the low-level enhancement processes were overshadowed by deep convection that developed along the terrain. Analysis of the radar data is complemented by a series of numerical simulations, which reasonably reproduce the track, intensity and structure of Karl. The simulated thermodynamic and kinematic patterns provide a holistic view of Karl's evolution during landfall. We use terrain modification experiments to examine the sensitivity of the orographic enhancement processes to the three-dimensional terrain and land surface characteristics. Consistent with the radar analysis, warm-cloud enhancement processes are visible in the spatial pattern of hydrometeor mixing ratios and in a shift towards greater mixing ratios. We link changes in the microphysical patterns with the thermodynamic and kinematic environments in which the patterns are embedded. We also examine the relative contributions of intense convection and forced ascent to the precipitation totals.

Active Learning and Engagement with the Wireless Indoor Location Device (WILD) Learning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moldwin, M.; Samson, P. J.; Ojeda, L.; Miller, T.; Yu, J.

2016-12-01

The Wireless Indoor Location Device (WILD) Learning System being developed at the University of Michigan and the Education Technology company A2 Motus LLC provides a unique platform for social learning by allowing students to become active participants in live simulations of complex systems, like hurricane formation. The WILD Learning System enables teachers to engage students in kinesthetic activities that explore complex models from a wide variety of STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Art and Math) disciplines. The system provides students' location, orientation and motion within the classroom and assigns each student different parameters depending on the activity. For example, students learning about hurricanes could be assigned atmospheric pressure levels and asked to arrange themselves around the room to simulate a hurricane. The Wild Learning System software then takes the students' pressure readings and locations and projects their locations overlaid onto a real-time generated simulated pressure weather map enabling the observation of how their arrangement influences the pressure structure. The teacher then could have the students orient themselves in the direction they think the resulting wind field will be based on the pressure contours as the system can show an arrow originating from each of the students position in the direction that they are facing. The system also could incorporate a student response-type system for the instructor to then directly question students about other concepts and record their response to both the kinesthetic activity and other formative assessment questions. The WILD Learning System consists of a sensor package for each student in the class, beacons to enable precise localization of the students, software to calculate student location information, and educational software for a variety of activities. In addition, a software development kit (SDK) is under development that would allow others to create additional learning activities using the WILD Learning System. (WILD Learning System development has been partially supported by NASA's CYGNSS Mission EPO, the NSF and the University of Michigan).

Analyses and simulations of the upper ocean's response to Hurricane Felix at the Bermuda Testbed Mooring site: 13-23 August 1995

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zedler, S. E.; Dickey, T. D.; Doney, S. C.; Price, J. F.; Yu, X.; Mellor, G. L.

2002-12-01

The center of Hurricane Felix passed 85 km to the southwest of the Bermuda Testbed Mooring (BTM; 31°44'N, 64°10'W) site on 15 August 1995. Data collected in the upper ocean from the BTM during this encounter provide a rare opportunity to investigate the physical processes that occur in a hurricane's wake. Data analyses indicate that the storm caused a large increase in kinetic energy at near-inertial frequencies, internal gravity waves in the thermocline, and inertial pumping, mixed layer deepening, and significant vertical redistribution of heat, with cooling of the upper 30 m and warming at depths of 30-70 m. The temperature evolution was simulated using four one-dimensional mixed layer models: Price-Weller-Pinkel (PWP), K Profile Parameterization (KPP), Mellor-Yamada 2.5 (MY), and a modified version of MY2.5 (MY2). The primary differences in the model results were in their simulations of temperature evolution. In particular, when forced using a drag coefficient that had a linear dependence on wind speed, the KPP model predicted sea surface cooling, mixed layer currents, and the maximum depth of cooling closer to the observations than any of the other models. This was shown to be partly because of a special parameterization for gradient Richardson number (RgKPP) shear instability mixing in response to resolved shear in the interior. The MY2 model predicted more sea surface cooling and greater depth penetration of kinetic energy than the MY model. In the MY2 model the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy is parameterized as a function of a locally defined Richardson number (RgMY2) allowing for a reduction in dissipation rate for stable Richardson numbers (RgMY2) when internal gravity waves are likely to be present. Sensitivity simulations with the PWP model, which has specifically defined mixing procedures, show that most of the heat lost from the upper layer was due to entrainment (parameterized as a function of bulk Richardson number RbPWP), with the remainder due to local Richardson number (RgPWP) instabilities. With the exception of the MY model the models predicted reasonable estimates of the north and east current components during and after the hurricane passage at 25 and 45 m. Although the results emphasize differences between the modeled responses to a given wind stress, current controversy over the formulation of wind stress from wind speed measurements (including possible sea state and wave age and sheltering effects) cautions against using our results for assessing model skill. In particular, sensitivity studies show that MY2 simulations of the temperature evolution are excellent when the wind stress is increased, albeit with currents that are larger than observed. Sensitivity experiments also indicate that preexisting inertial motion modulated the amplitude of poststorm currents, but that there was probably not a significant resonant response because of clockwise wind rotation for our study site.

Public perceptions of hurricane modification.

PubMed

Klima, Kelly; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Morgan, M Granger; Grossmann, Iris

2012-07-01

If hurricane modification were to become a feasible strategy for potentially reducing hurricane damages, it would likely generate public discourse about whether to support its implementation. To facilitate an informed and constructive discourse, policymakers need to understand how people perceive hurricane modification. Here, we examine Florida residents' perceptions of hurricane modification techniques that aim to alter path and wind speed. Following the mental models approach, we conducted a survey study about public perceptions of hurricane modification that was guided by formative interviews on the topic. We report a set of four primary findings. First, hurricane modification was perceived as a relatively ineffective strategy for damage reduction, compared to other strategies for damage reduction. Second, hurricane modification was expected to lead to changes in projected hurricane path, but not necessarily to the successful reduction of projected hurricane strength. Third, more anger was evoked when a hurricane was described as having changed from the initially forecasted path or strength after an attempted modification. Fourth, unlike what we expected, participants who more strongly agreed with statements that recognized the uncertainty inherent in forecasts reported more rather than less anger at scientists across hurricane modification scenarios. If the efficacy of intensity-reduction techniques can be increased, people may be willing to support hurricane modification. However, such an effort would need to be combined with open and honest communications to members of the general public. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Hurricane Ida

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-18

article title:  Hurricane Ida Cross-Track Winds       ... (MISR) instrument on NASA's Terra satellite passed over Hurricane Ida while it was situated between western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. According to the National Hurricane Center, at 15:00 UTC, the hurricane had an estimated minimum central ...

Left-Skew L Distribution Function Application in Hurricane Categories Using its Center-Pressure in Context of Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.

2017-12-01

Theory resultsWang wanli left-skew L distribution density function is formula below, its interval is from -∞ to +1 , x indicates center pressure of hurricane, xA represents its long term mean, [(x-xA)/x] is standard random variable on boundary condition f(+1) =0 and f(-∞) =0 Standard variable is negative when x is less than xA ;standard variable is positive when x is more than xA : the standard variable is equal to zero when x is just xA; thus, standard variable is just -∞ if x is zero ,standard variable is also +1 if x is +∞ , finally standard random variable fall into interval of - ∞ 1 to +1 Application in table "-" signal presents individual hurricane center pressure is less than the hurricane long term averaged value; "+" signal presents individual hurricane center pressure is more than the hurricane its mean of long term, of course the mean (xA) is also substituted by other "standard" or "expected value" Tab multi-levels of hurricane strength or intense Index of Hurricane [(X-XA)/X]% XA / X Categories Descriptions X/ XA Probabilities Formula -∞ +∞ → 0 → 0 …… …… …… …… …… …… < -900 > 10.0 < -15 > extreme ( Ⅵ ) < 0.10 -800, -900 9.0, 10.0 -15 extreme ( Ⅵ ) 0.11, 0.10 -700, -800 8.0, 9.0 -14 extreme ( Ⅴ ) 0.13, 0.11 -600, -700 7.0, 8.0 -13 extreme ( Ⅳ ) 0.14, 0.13 -500, -600 6.0, 7.0 -12 extreme ( Ⅲ ) 0.17, 0.14 0.05287 % L(-5.0)- L(-6.0) -400, -500 5.0, 6.0 -11 extreme ( Ⅱ ) 0.20, 0.17 0.003 % L(-4.0)- L(-5.0) -300, -400 4.0, 5.0 -10 extreme ( Ⅰ ) 0.25, 0.20 0.132 % L(-3.0)- L(-4.0) -267, -300 3.67, 4.00 -9 strongest ( Ⅲ )-superior 0.27, 0.25 0.24 % L(-2.67)-L(-3.00) -233, -267 3.33, 3.67 -8 strongest ( Ⅱ )-medium 0.30, 0.27 0.61 % L(-2.33)-L(-2.67) -200, -233 3.00, 3.33 -7 strongest ( Ⅰ )-inferior 0.33, 0.30 1.28 % L(-2.00)- L(-2.33) -167, -200 2.67, 3.00 -6 strong ( Ⅲ )-superior 0.37, 0.33 2.47 % L(-1.67)-L(-2.00) -133, -167 2.33, 2.67 -5 strong ( Ⅱ )-medium 0.43, 0.37 4.43 % L(-1.33)- L(-1.67) -100, -133 2.00, 2.33 -4 strong ( Ⅰ )-inferior 0.50, 0.43 6.69 % L(-1.00) -L(-1.33) -67, -100 1.67, 2.00 -3 normal ( Ⅲ ) -superior 0.60, 0.50 9.27 % L(-0.67)-L(-1.00) -33, -67 1.33, 1.67 -2 normal ( Ⅱ )-medium 0.75, 0.60 11.93 % L(-0.33)-L(-0.67) 00, -33 1.00, 1.33 -1 normal ( Ⅰ )-inferior 1.0, 0.75 12.93 % L(0.00)-L(-0.33) 33, 00 0.67, 1.00 +1 normal 1.49, 1.00 34.79 % L(0.33)-L(0.00) 67, 33 0.33, 0.67 +2 weak 3.03, 1.49 12.12 % L(0.67)-L(0.33) 100, 67 0.00, 0.33 +3 more weaker ∞, 3.03 3.08 % L(1.00)-L(0.67)

Warm Core Structure and Mid-Level Intrusion in Hurricane Bonnie (1998) During Landfalling on 26 August 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heymsfield, G. M.; Halverson, J.

2004-01-01

On 26 August 1998 during CAMEX-3, Hurricane Bonnie was overflown by the NASA ER-2 aircraft instrumented with the EDOP X-Band radar and other instrumentation. Bonnie was an asymmetric storm on this day with several prominent features during its brush with the East coast. One of these features was strong intrusion of dry air on the west side of the storm. During the interaction of this westerly shear with the storm, the precipitation band rotates cyclonically from northwest to the south of the storm center. In this paper, we examine the structure of this dry intrusion and its effect on the storm. The EDOP observations are analyzed along with dropsondes, flight-level observations (NASA DC-8 and NOAA P3), and satellite data. The most apparent feature of the EDOP observations are the strong shears in the interface between the western eyewall updraft, and the dry intrusion. Mammatus are formed along this interface reminiscent of convective rear inflows, and suggestive of intense drying of the air through subsidence. This observation as well as other aspects of the analysis are related to recent numerical simulations of Hurricane Bonnie.

Communication: Adaptive boundaries in multiscale simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagoner, Jason A.; Pande, Vijay S.

2018-04-01

Combined-resolution simulations are an effective way to study molecular properties across a range of length and time scales. These simulations can benefit from adaptive boundaries that allow the high-resolution region to adapt (change size and/or shape) as the simulation progresses. The number of degrees of freedom required to accurately represent even a simple molecular process can vary by several orders of magnitude throughout the course of a simulation, and adaptive boundaries react to these changes to include an appropriate but not excessive amount of detail. Here, we derive the Hamiltonian and distribution function for such a molecular simulation. We also design an algorithm that can efficiently sample the boundary as a new coordinate of the system. We apply this framework to a mixed explicit/continuum simulation of a peptide in solvent. We use this example to discuss the conditions necessary for a successful implementation of adaptive boundaries that is both efficient and accurate in reproducing molecular properties.

Hurricane effects on backreef echinoderms of the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aronson, R. B.

1993-11-01

The impacts of Hurricanes Gilbert (1988) and Hugo (1989) on echinoderm assemblages were assessed in backreef habitats in Jamaica and St. Croix, respectively. One site on each island was censused before the hurricanes. Ophiuroids were monitored at the Jamaican site for three years following Hurricane Gilbert, and ophiuroids and echinoids were monitored at the site on St. Croix for two years following Hurricane Hugo. No hurricane-related changes in ophiuroid abundance were observed at either site. Likewise, there was no evidence that Hurricane Hugo altered echinoid abundance at St. Croix. These negative results correlated with an observed lack of hurricane-generated physical disturbance in the backreef areas, despite 6-m waves that broke on the reef crests at the two sites during the storms. Hurricane impacts on mobile faunas appear to depend directly on physical habitat alterations.

A new aircraft hurricane wind climatology and applications in assessing the predictive skill of tropical cyclone intensity using high-resolution ensemble forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Judt, Falko; Chen, Shuyi S.

2015-07-01

Hurricane surface wind is a key measure of storm intensity. However, a climatology of hurricane winds is lacking to date, largely because hurricanes are relatively rare events and difficult to observe over the open ocean. Here we present a new hurricane wind climatology based on objective surface wind analyses, which are derived from Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer measurements acquired by NOAA WP-3D and U.S. Air Force WC-130J hurricane hunter aircraft. The wind data were collected during 72 aircraft reconnaissance missions into 21 western Atlantic hurricanes from 1998 to 2012. This climatology provides an opportunity to validate hurricane intensity forecasts beyond the simplistic maximum wind speed metric and allows evaluating the predictive skill of probabilistic hurricane intensity forecasts using high-resolution model ensembles. An example of application is presented here using a 1.3 km grid spacing Weather Research and Forecasting model ensemble forecast of Hurricane Earl (2010).

Understanding the Effect of Grain Boundary Character on Dynamic Recrystallization in Stainless Steel 316L

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Megan; Morse, Michael; Corolewski, Caleb; Fritchman, Koyuki; Stifter, Chris; Poole, Callum; Hurley, Michael; Frary, Megan

2017-08-01

Dynamic recrystallization (DRX) occurs during high-temperature deformation in metals and alloys with low to medium stacking fault energies. Previous simulations and experimental research have shown the effect of temperature and grain size on DRX behavior, but not the effect of the grain boundary character distribution. To investigate the effects of the distribution of grain boundary types, experimental testing was performed on stainless steel 316L specimens with different initial special boundary fractions (SBF). This work was completed in conjunction with computer simulations that used a modified Monte Carlo method which allowed for the addition of anisotropic grain boundary energies using orientation data from electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD). The correlation of the experimental and simulation work allows for a better understanding of how the input parameters in the simulations correspond to what occurs experimentally. Results from both simulations and experiments showed that a higher fraction of so-called "special" boundaries ( e.g., Σ3 twin boundaries) delayed the onset of recrystallization to larger strains and that it is energetically favorable for nuclei to form on triple junctions without these so-called "special" boundaries.

The effect of proximity to hurricanes Katrina and Rita on subsequent hurricane outlook and optimistic bias.

PubMed

Trumbo, Craig; Lueck, Michelle; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori

2011-12-01

This study evaluated how individuals living on the Gulf Coast perceived hurricane risk after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. It was hypothesized that hurricane outlook and optimistic bias for hurricane risk would be associated positively with distance from the Katrina-Rita landfall (more optimism at greater distance), controlling for historically based hurricane risk and county population density, demographics, individual hurricane experience, and dispositional optimism. Data were collected in January 2006 through a mail survey sent to 1,375 households in 41 counties on the coast (n = 824, 60% response). The analysis used hierarchal regression to test hypotheses. Hurricane history and population density had no effect on outlook; individuals who were male, older, and with higher household incomes were associated with lower risk perception; individual hurricane experience and personal impacts from Katrina and Rita predicted greater risk perception; greater dispositional optimism predicted more optimistic outlook; distance had a small effect but predicted less optimistic outlook at greater distance (model R(2) = 0.21). The model for optimistic bias had fewer effects: age and community tenure were significant; dispositional optimism had a positive effect on optimistic bias; distance variables were not significant (model R(2) = 0.05). The study shows that an existing measure of hurricane outlook has utility, hurricane outlook appears to be a unique concept from hurricane optimistic bias, and proximity has at most small effects. Future extension of this research will include improved conceptualization and measurement of hurricane risk perception and will bring to focus several concepts involving risk communication. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Impact of Targeted Ocean Observations for Improving Ocean Model Initialization for Coupled Hurricane Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halliwell, G. R.; Srinivasan, A.; Kourafalou, V. H.; Yang, H.; Le Henaff, M.; Atlas, R. M.

2012-12-01

The accuracy of hurricane intensity forecasts produced by coupled forecast models is influenced by errors and biases in SST forecasts produced by the ocean model component and the resulting impact on the enthalpy flux from ocean to atmosphere that powers the storm. Errors and biases in fields used to initialize the ocean model seriously degrade SST forecast accuracy. One strategy for improving ocean model initialization is to design a targeted observing program using airplanes and in-situ devices such as floats and drifters so that assimilation of the additional data substantially reduces errors in the ocean analysis system that provides the initial fields. Given the complexity and expense of obtaining these additional observations, observing system design methods such as OSSEs are attractive for designing efficient observing strategies. A new fraternal-twin ocean OSSE system based on the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used to assess the impact of targeted ocean profiles observed by hurricane research aircraft, and also by in-situ float and drifter deployments, on reducing errors in initial ocean fields. A 0.04-degree HYCOM simulation of the Gulf of Mexico is evaluated as the nature run by determining that important ocean circulation features such as the Loop Current and synoptic cyclones and anticyclones are realistically simulated. The data-assimilation system is run on a 0.08-degree HYCOM mesh with substantially different model configuration than the nature run, and it uses a new ENsemble Kalman Filter (ENKF) algorithm optimized for the ocean model's hybrid vertical coordinates. The OSSE system is evaluated and calibrated by first running Observing System Experiments (OSEs) to evaluate existing observing systems, specifically quantifying the impact of assimilating more than one satellite altimeter, and also the impact of assimilating targeted ocean profiles taken by the NOAA WP-3D hurricane research aircraft in the Gulf of Mexico during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. OSSE evaluation and calibration is then performed by repeating these two OSEs with synthetic observations and comparing the resulting observing system impact to determine if it differs from the OSE results. OSSEs are first run to evaluate different airborne sampling strategies with respect to temporal frequency of flights and the horizontal separation of upper-ocean profiles during each flight. They are then run to assess the impact of releasing multiple floats and gliders. Evaluation strategy focuses on error reduction in fields important for hurricane forecasting such as the structure of ocean currents and eddies, upper ocean heat content distribution, and upper-ocean stratification.

Hurricane Alex

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-19

article title:  Hurricane Alex Disrupts Gulf Cleanup     View Larger Image This view of Hurricane Alex in the western Gulf of Mexico was acquired by the Multi-angle ... Time on June 30, 2010. Around this time NOAA's National Hurricane Center reported Alex to be a strengthening Category 1 hurricane with ...

Towards a full representation of tropical cyclones in a global reanalysis of extreme sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, S.; Verlaan, M.; Lin, N.; Winsemius, H.; Vatvani, D.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, are characterised by high wind speeds and low pressure, and cause dangerous storm surges in coastal areas. Recent disasters like the flooding of New Orleans in 2005 due to Hurricane Katrina and of New York in 2012 due to Hurricane Sandy exemplify the significant TC risk in the United States. In this contribution, we present a new framework to model TC storm surges and probabilities at the Atlantic basin- and, ultimately, global scales. This works builds on the work of Muis et al. (2016), which presented the first dynamically-derived reanalysis dataset of storm surges that covers the entire world's coastline (GTSR dataset). Surge levels for the period 1979-2014 were simulated by forcing the Global Surge and Tide Model (GTSM) with wind speed and atmospheric pressure from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. There is generally a good agreement between simulated and observed sea level extremes in extra-tropical regions; however for areas prone to TCs there is a severe underestimation of extremes. For example, the maximum surge levels during Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans exceeded 8 m, whilst the GTSM surge levels in that area do not exceed 2-3 m. Hence, due to the coarse grid resolution, the strong intensities of TCs are not fully captured in ERA-Interim. Furthermore, the length of ERA-Interim data set, like other reanalysis datasets, is too short to estimate the probabilities of extreme TC events in a reliable way. For accurate risk assessments it is essential to improve the representation of TCs in these global reanalysis of extreme sea levels. First, we need a higher resolution of meteorological forcing, which can be modelled with input from the observed best track data. Second, we need to statistically extend the observed record to many thousands of years. We will present the first results of these steps for the east coast of the United States. We will validate the GTSM model forced with best track data using recent extreme events like Katrina and Sandy. We will investigate how the statistics of the extreme sea level will change due to improved representation of TCs.

Potential of high resolution satellite imagery, remote weather data and 1D hydraulic modeling to evaluate flood areas in Gonaives, Haiti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozza, Andrea; Durand, Arnaud; Allenbach, Bernard; Confortola, Gabriele; Bocchiola, Daniele

2013-04-01

We present a feasibility study to explore potential of high-resolution imagery, coupled with hydraulic flood modeling to predict flooding risks, applied to the case study of Gonaives basins (585 km²), Haiti. We propose a methodology working at different scales, providing accurate results and a faster intervention during extreme flood events. The 'Hispaniola' island, in the Caribbean tropical zone, is often affected by extreme floods events. Floods are caused by tropical springs and hurricanes, and may lead to several damages, including cholera epidemics, as recently occurred, in the wake of the earthquake upon January 12th 2010 (magnitude 7.0). Floods studies based upon hydrological and hydraulic modeling are hampered by almost complete lack of ground data. Thenceforth, and given the noticeable cost involved in the organization of field measurement campaigns, the need for exploitation of remote sensing images data. HEC-RAS 1D modeling is carried out under different scenarios of available Digital Elevation Models. The DEMs are generated using optical remote sensing satellite (WorldView-1) and SRTM, combined with information from an open source database (Open Street Map). We study two recent flood episodes, where flood maps from remote sensing were available. Flood extent and land use have been assessed by way of data from SPOT-5 satellite, after hurricane Jeanne in 2004 and hurricane Hanna in 2008. A semi-distributed, DEM based hydrological model is used to simulate flood flows during the hurricanes. Precipitation input is taken from daily rainfall data derived from TRMM satellite, plus proper downscaling. The hydraulic model is calibrated using floodplain friction as tuning parameters against the observed flooded area. We compare different scenarios of flood simulation, and the predictive power of model calibration. The method provide acceptable results in depicting flooded areas, especially considering the tremendous lack of ground data, and show the potential of remote sensing information in prediction of flood events in this area, for the purpose of risk assessment and land use planning, and possibly for flood forecast during extreme events.

Morphological Modeling of a Low-Dune Barrier Headland System's Response to Hurricane Forcing Before and After a Large Scale Restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, C.; Chen, Q. J.

2017-12-01

Coastal barrier landforms serve as the first line of defense against oceanic and meteorological forcing. Widespread recognition of this function has prompted coastal managers to adopt systematic restoration programs. The state of Louisiana has, in response to its critically eroding shorelines (Byrnes et al., 2017), implemented 30 barrier island and headland restoration projects over the past three decades. The Caminada Headlands Beach and Dune Restoration Project, completed in 2016, restored 22.5 kilometers of Louisiana's coastline by elevating the cross-shore profile and placing approximately 250,000 m3 of sediment within the back- and foreshore. Interventions of this magnitude are significant perturbations to the local sediment budget and geomorphodynamic equilibrium. In Louisiana, an important question is the immediate fate of placed sediment transported during the passage of a hurricane, as the potential to ultimately retain this sediment is influenced by the location of its deposition. The direction of net sediment transport (on- or offshore) depends mainly on the elevation of the storm surge relative to the dune crest, but also on the evolution of the cross-shore water surface gradient and the spatial configuration of biogeophysical properties and hard-structures (Sherwood et al., 2014; Smallegan et al., 2016) . Prior to its restoration, the Caminada headlands were generally of low elevation with the majority of dune crest extending less than 50 cm above MHW and several active breaches. Hurricanes Gustav (2008) and Isaac (2012) made landfall directly on the headlands with inundating storm surges that resulted in observed overwash deposition (Doran et al, 2009; Guy et al, 2013), i.e. landward directed sediment transport and deposition. An open-source process-based morphological model (XBeach) is used to study hurricane induced sediment transport for both pre- and post-restoration of the Caminada headlands. Hindcast pre-restoration simulations of Gustav's and Isaac's impact are compared with forecast post-restoration simulations implemented with similar hydrodynamic forcing. Analysis of post-storm erosion/deposition highlights the importance of restoration design components such as back-barrier marsh creation and the dune crest elevation.

Large eddy simulation for atmospheric boundary layer flow over flat and complex terrains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Yi; Stoellinger, Michael; Naughton, Jonathan

2016-09-01

In this work, we present Large Eddy Simulation (LES) results of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flow over complex terrain with neutral stratification using the OpenFOAM-based simulator for on/offshore wind farm applications (SOWFA). The complete work flow to investigate the LES for the ABL over real complex terrain is described including meteorological-tower data analysis, mesh generation and case set-up. New boundary conditions for the lateral and top boundaries are developed and validated to allow inflow and outflow as required in complex terrain simulations. The turbulent inflow data for the terrain simulation is generated using a precursor simulation of a flat and neutral ABL. Conditionally averaged met-tower data is used to specify the conditions for the flat precursor simulation and is also used for comparison with the simulation results of the terrain LES. A qualitative analysis of the simulation results reveals boundary layer separation and recirculation downstream of a prominent ridge that runs across the simulation domain. Comparisons of mean wind speed, standard deviation and direction between the computed results and the conditionally averaged tower data show a reasonable agreement.

Role of out-of-plane dielectric thickness in the electrostatic simulation of atomically thin lateral junctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nipane, Ankur; Zhang, Yefei; Teherani, James T.

2018-06-01

Two-dimensional materials enable novel electronic and optoelectronic devices due to their unique properties. Device modeling plays a fundamental role in developing these novel devices by providing insights into the underlying physics. In this work, we present the dramatic impact of the simulated out-of-plane dielectric thickness on the electrostatics of lateral junctions formed from atomically thin materials. We show that unlike bulk junctions, the boundary conditions on the edges of the simulation region significantly affect the electrostatics of two-dimensional (2D) lateral junctions by modifying the out-of-plane electric field. We also present an intuitive understanding of the Neumann boundary conditions imposed on the boundaries of the simulation region. The Neumann boundary conditions alter the intended simulation by generating reflections of the device across the boundaries. Finally, we derive a minimal dielectric thickness for a symmetrically doped 2D lateral p-n junction, above which the out-of-plane simulation region boundaries minimally affect the simulated electric field, electrostatic potential, and depletion width of the junction.

7 CFR 1430.604 - Eligibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita the base month is July 2005 and the corresponding claim period are the... hurricane-related dairy disaster benefits under this part only if they have suffered dairy production or dairy spoilage losses in 2005 as a result of a hurricane disaster or related condition, in a hurricane...

7 CFR 1430.604 - Eligibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita the base month is July 2005 and the corresponding claim period are the... hurricane-related dairy disaster benefits under this part only if they have suffered dairy production or dairy spoilage losses in 2005 as a result of a hurricane disaster or related condition, in a hurricane...

7 CFR 1430.604 - Eligibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita the base month is July 2005 and the corresponding claim period are the... hurricane-related dairy disaster benefits under this part only if they have suffered dairy production or dairy spoilage losses in 2005 as a result of a hurricane disaster or related condition, in a hurricane...

7 CFR 1430.604 - Eligibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita the base month is July 2005 and the corresponding claim period are the... hurricane-related dairy disaster benefits under this part only if they have suffered dairy production or dairy spoilage losses in 2005 as a result of a hurricane disaster or related condition, in a hurricane...

7 CFR 1430.604 - Eligibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita the base month is July 2005 and the corresponding claim period are the... hurricane-related dairy disaster benefits under this part only if they have suffered dairy production or dairy spoilage losses in 2005 as a result of a hurricane disaster or related condition, in a hurricane...

ISER - Emergency Situation Reports

Science.gov Websites

Mississippi River. The spring also brought storms to the Mid-Atlantic and Southern regions. In late August August and September 2004, ISER helped state and federal agencies prepare for and respond to the MB). Hurricane Jeanne Hurricane Ivan Hurricane Frances Hurricane Charley 2003 Hurricane Isabel August

Hurricane hazards: a national threat

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2005-01-01

Hurricanes bring destructive winds, storm surge, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes. A single storm can wreak havoc on coastal and inland communities and on natural areas over thousands of square miles. In 2005, Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma demonstrated the devastation that hurricanes can inflict and the importance of hurricane hazards research and preparedness. More than half of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of a coast, and this number is increasing. Many of these areas, especially the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, will be in the direct path of future hurricanes. Hawaii is also vulnerable to hurricanes.

Storming ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

Fourteen tropical storms, nine hurricanes, and four intense hurricanes with winds above 111 mph. That's the forecast for hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin for the upcoming hurricane season which extends from June 1 through November 30, 1999, according to a Colorado State Hurricane Forecast team led by William Gray, professor of atmospheric science. The forecast supports an earlier report by the team.Hurricane activity, said Gray will be similar to 1998—which yielded 14 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense storms. These numbers are significantly higher than the long-term statistical averages of 9.3, 5.8, and 2.2, annually.

Generating Inviscid and Viscous Fluid-Flow Simulations over an Aircraft Surface Using a Fluid-Flow Mesh

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, David L. (Inventor); Sturdza, Peter (Inventor)

2013-01-01

Fluid-flow simulation over a computer-generated aircraft surface is generated using inviscid and viscous simulations. A fluid-flow mesh of fluid cells is obtained. At least one inviscid fluid property for the fluid cells is determined using an inviscid fluid simulation that does not simulate fluid viscous effects. A set of intersecting fluid cells that intersects the aircraft surface are identified. One surface mesh polygon of the surface mesh is identified for each intersecting fluid cell. A boundary-layer prediction point for each identified surface mesh polygon is determined. At least one boundary-layer fluid property for each boundary-layer prediction point is determined using the at least one inviscid fluid property of the corresponding intersecting fluid cell and a boundary-layer simulation that simulates fluid viscous effects. At least one updated fluid property for at least one fluid cell is determined using the at least one boundary-layer fluid property and the inviscid fluid simulation.

Nonlinear analysis of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojo-Garibaldi, Berenice; Salas-de-León, David Alberto; Adela Monreal-Gómez, María; Sánchez-Santillán, Norma Leticia; Salas-Monreal, David

2018-04-01

Hurricanes are complex systems that carry large amounts of energy. Their impact often produces natural disasters involving the loss of human lives and materials, such as infrastructure, valued at billions of US dollars. However, not everything about hurricanes is negative, as hurricanes are the main source of rainwater for the regions where they develop. This study shows a nonlinear analysis of the time series of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea obtained from 1749 to 2012. The construction of the hurricane time series was carried out based on the hurricane database of the North Atlantic basin hurricane database (HURDAT) and the published historical information. The hurricane time series provides a unique historical record on information about ocean-atmosphere interactions. The Lyapunov exponent indicated that the system presented chaotic dynamics, and the spectral analysis and nonlinear analyses of the time series of the hurricanes showed chaotic edge behavior. One possible explanation for this chaotic edge is the individual chaotic behavior of hurricanes, either by category or individually regardless of their category and their behavior on a regular basis.

Not so close but still extremely loud: recollection of the World Trade Center terror attack and previous hurricanes moderates the association between exposure to hurricane Sandy and posttraumatic stress symptoms.

PubMed

Palgi, Yuval; Shrira, Amit; Hamama-Raz, Yaira; Palgi, Sharon; Goodwin, Robin; Ben-Ezra, Menachem

2014-05-01

The present study examined whether recollections of the World Trade Center (WTC) terror attack and previous hurricanes moderated the relationship between exposure to Hurricane Sandy and related posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. An online sample of 1000 participants from affected areas completed self-report questionnaires a month after Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States. Participants reported their exposure to Hurricane Sandy, their PTSD symptoms, and recollections of the WTC terror attack and previous hurricanes elicited due to Hurricane Sandy. Exposure to Hurricane Sandy was related to PTSD symptoms among those with high level of recollections of the WTC terror attack and past hurricanes, but not among those with low level of recollections. The aftermath of exposure to Hurricane Sandy is related not only to exposure, but also to its interaction with recollections of past traumas. These findings have theoretical and practical implications for practitioners and health policy makers in evaluating and interpreting the impact of past memories on future natural disasters. This may help in intervention plans of social and psychological services. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Land Area Change and Overview of Major Hurricane Impacts in Coastal Louisiana, 2004-08

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barras, John A.

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessed changes in land and water coverage in coastal Louisiana within 2 months of Hurricane Gustav (September 1, 2008) and Hurricane Ike (September 13, 2008) by using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery. The purpose of this study was twofold: (1) to provide preliminary information on land-water area changes in coastal Louisiana shortly after Hurricanes Ike and Gustav made landfall and (2) to contrast these changes with prior, widespread land area changes caused by Hurricane Katrina (August 29, 2005) and Hurricane Rita (September 24, 2005) 3 years earlier. Hurricane Gustav's physical surge impacts were not as severe as those observed from Hurricane Katrina. The largest observed changes were the reversion of recovery vegetation in Upper Breton Sound to an immediate post-Katrina appearance. Hurricane Ike's surge impacts were similar, although of somewhat lesser magnitude than Hurricane Rita's surge impacts. Major surge-removed marsh occurred in similar locations with similar morphologies from the two westward tracking storms. Although the net reduction in land from 2004 to 2008 (849.5 km2) exceeded that from 1978 to 2004 (743.3 km2), it is likely that the 2004-08 estimate will decrease, given time for the coast to recover from those hurricane seasons. Nevertheless, it is likely that the cumulative loss from these hurricane seasons will remain significant. Estimation of permanent losses cannot be made until several growing seasons have passed and the transitory impacts of the hurricanes are accounted for.

Mortality associated with Hurricane Katrina--Florida and Alabama, August-October 2005.

PubMed

2006-03-10

On August 25, 2005, Hurricane Katrina made landfall between Hallandale Beach and Aventura, Florida, as a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of 80 mph. Storm effects, primarily rain, flooding, and high winds, were substantial; certain areas reported nearly 12 inches of rainfall. After crossing southern Florida and entering the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane strengthened and made landfall in southeastern Louisiana on August 29 as a Category 3 hurricane, with sustained winds of 125 mph. Katrina was one of the strongest hurricanes to strike the United States during the past 100 years and was likely the nation's costliest natural disaster to date. This report summarizes findings and recommendations from a review of mortality records of Florida's Medical Examiners Commission (FMEC) and the Alabama Department of Forensic Science (ADFS). CDC was invited by the Florida Department of Health (FDOH) and the Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH) to assess the mortality related to Hurricane Katrina. The mortality review was intended to provide county-based information that would be used to 1) define the impact of the hurricane, 2) describe the etiology of deaths, and 3) identify strategies to prevent or reduce future hurricane-related mortality. Combined, both agencies identified five, 23, and 10 deaths, respectively, that were directly, indirectly, or possibly related to Hurricane Katrina. Information from the characterization of these deaths will be used to reduce hurricane-related mortality through early community awareness of hurricane-related risk, prevention measures, and effective communication of a coordinated hurricane response plan.

Effects of a simulated hurricane disturbance on forest floor microbial communities

Treesearch

Sharon A. Cantrell; Marirosa Molina; D. Jean Lodge; Francisco J. Rivera-Figueroa; Maria Ortiz; Albany A. Marchetti; Mike J. Cyterski; José R. Pérez-Jiménez

2014-01-01

Forest floor microbial communities play a critical role in the processes of decomposition and nutrient cycling. The impact of cultivation, contamination, fire, and land management on soil microbial communities have been studied but there are few studies of microbial responses to the effects of tropical storms. The Canopy Trimming Experiment was executed in the Luquillo...

Using Adaptive Mesh Refinment to Simulate Storm Surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandli, K. T.; Dawson, C.

2012-12-01

Coastal hazards related to strong storms such as hurricanes and typhoons are one of the most frequently recurring and wide spread hazards to coastal communities. Storm surges are among the most devastating effects of these storms, and their prediction and mitigation through numerical simulations is of great interest to coastal communities that need to plan for the subsequent rise in sea level during these storms. Unfortunately these simulations require a large amount of resolution in regions of interest to capture relevant effects resulting in a computational cost that may be intractable. This problem is exacerbated in situations where a large number of similar runs is needed such as in design of infrastructure or forecasting with ensembles of probable storms. One solution to address the problem of computational cost is to employ adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) algorithms. AMR functions by decomposing the computational domain into regions which may vary in resolution as time proceeds. Decomposing the domain as the flow evolves makes this class of methods effective at ensuring that computational effort is spent only where it is needed. AMR also allows for placement of computational resolution independent of user interaction and expectation of the dynamics of the flow as well as particular regions of interest such as harbors. The simulation of many different applications have only been made possible by using AMR-type algorithms, which have allowed otherwise impractical simulations to be performed for much less computational expense. Our work involves studying how storm surge simulations can be improved with AMR algorithms. We have implemented relevant storm surge physics in the GeoClaw package and tested how Hurricane Ike's surge into Galveston Bay and up the Houston Ship Channel compares to available tide gauge data. We will also discuss issues dealing with refinement criteria, optimal resolution and refinement ratios, and inundation.

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Controls in the Western Atlantic Basin during the First Half of the Nineteenth Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, C. J.; Dodds, S. F.; Rodgers, M. D.; Patwardhan, A.

2008-12-01

This study describes new comprehensive reconstructions of individual Western Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones for each year of the first half of the nineteenth century in the Western Atlantic Basin that are directly compatible and supplement the National Hurricane Center's HURDAT (Atlantic basin hurricane database). Data used for reconstructing tropical cyclones come from ship logbooks, ship protests, diaries, newspapers, and early instrumental records from more than 50 different archival repositories in the United States and the United Kingdom. Tropical cyclone strength was discriminated among tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and non-tropical lows at least at tropical storm strength. The results detail the characteristics of several hundred storms, many of them being newly documented, and tracks for all storms were mapped. Overall, prominent active periods of tropical cyclones are evident along the western Atlantic Ocean in the 1830s but Caribbean and Gulf coasts exhibit active periods as being more evident in the 1810s and 1820s. Differences in decadal variations were even more pronounced when examining time series of activity at the statewide scale. High resolution paleoclimate and historical instrumental records of the AMO, NAO, ENSO, Atlantic SSTs, West African rainfall, and volcanic activity explain how different modes in these forcing mechanisms may explain some of the multidecadal and interannual variations. The early nineteenth century active hurricane activity appears to be particularly unique in corresponding with a low (negative index) AMO period, and as they relate to particular synoptic-scale patterns in the latter part of the Little Ice Age. Model simulations offer some hypotheses on such patterns, perhaps suggesting increased baroclinic-related storms and a slight later possible shift in the seasonal peak of tropical cyclones for some areas at times. Some years, such as 1806, 1837, 1838, 1842, and 1846 have particularly very active seasons, and we critically examined the synoptic-scale circulation responsible and also related some of the storms as they relate to potential modern analogs.

Hurricane Season 2005: Katrina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

Seventeen days after Hurricane Katrina flooded New Orleans, much of the city is still under water. In this pair of images from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer on NASA's Terra satellite, the affected areas can clearly be seen. The top image mosaic was acquired in April and September 2000, and the bottom image was acquired September 13, 2005. The flooded parts of the city appear dark blue, such as the golf course in the northeast corner, where there is standing water. Areas that have dried out appear light blue gray, such as the city park in the left middle. On the left side of the image, the failed 17th street canal marks a sharp boundary between flooded city to the east, and dry land to the west.

The U.S. science team is located at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. The Terra mission is part of NASA's Science Mission Directorate.

Size: 10.4 by 7.1 kilometers Location: 30 degrees North latitude, 90.1 degrees West longitude Orientation: North at top Image Data: ASTER bands 1, 2, and 3 Original Data Resolution: 15 meters (49.2 feet) Dates Acquired: September 13, 2005

Mapping hurricane rita inland storm tide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berenbrock, C.; Mason, R.R.; Blanchard, S.F.

2009-01-01

Flood-inundation data are most useful for decision makers when presented in the context of maps of affected communities and (or) areas. But because the data are scarce and rarely cover the full extent of the flooding, interpolation and extrapolation of the information are needed. Many geographic information systems provide various interpolation tools, but these tools often ignore the effects of the topographic and hydraulic features that influence flooding. A barrier mapping method was developed to improve maps of storm tide produced by Hurricane Rita. Maps were developed for the maximum storm tide and at 3-h intervals from midnight (00:00 hours) through noon (12:00 hours) on 24 September 2005. The improved maps depict storm-tide elevations and the extent of flooding. The extent of storm-tide inundation from the improved maximum storm-tide map was compared with the extent of flood inundation from a map prepared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The boundaries from these two maps generally compared quite well especially along the Calcasieu River. Also a cross-section profile that parallels the Louisiana coast was developed from the maximum storm-tide map and included FEMA high-water marks. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Mapping Hurricane Rita inland storm tide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berenbrock, Charles; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Blanchard, Stephen F.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

2009-01-01

Flood-inundation data are most useful for decision makers when presented in the context of maps of effected communities and (or) areas. But because the data are scarce and rarely cover the full extent of the flooding, interpolation and extrapolation of the information are needed. Many geographic information systems (GIS) provide various interpolation tools, but these tools often ignore the effects of the topographic and hydraulic features that influence flooding. A barrier mapping method was developed to improve maps of storm tide produced by Hurricane Rita. Maps were developed for the maximum storm tide and at 3-hour intervals from midnight (0000 hour) through noon (1200 hour) on September 24, 2005. The improved maps depict storm-tide elevations and the extent of flooding. The extent of storm-tide inundation from the improved maximum storm-tide map was compared to the extent of flood-inundation from a map prepared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The boundaries from these two maps generally compared quite well especially along the Calcasieu River. Also a cross-section profile that parallels the Louisiana coast was developed from the maximum storm-tide map and included FEMA high-water marks.

Serious Emotion Disturbance among Youth Exposed to Hurricane Katrina Two Years Post-Disaster

PubMed Central

McLaughlin, Katie A.; Fairbank, John A.; Gruber, Michael J.; Jones, Russell T.; Lakoma, Matthew D.; Pfefferbaum, Betty; Sampson, Nancy A.; Kessler, Ronald C.

2014-01-01

Objective To estimate the prevalence of serious emotional disturbance (SED) among children and adolescents exposed to Hurricane Katrina along with the associations of SED with hurricane-related stressors, socio-demographics, and family factors 18–27 months following the hurricane. Method A probability sample of pre-hurricane residents of areas affected by Hurricane Katrina was administered a telephone survey. Respondents provided information on up to two of their children (n=797) aged 4–17. The survey assessed hurricane-related stressors and lifetime history of psychopathology in respondents, screened for 12-month SED in respondents’ children using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ), and determined whether children’s emotional and behavioral problems were attributable to Hurricane Katrina. Results The estimated prevalence of SED was 14.9%, and 9.3% of youth were estimated to have SED that is directly attributable to Hurricane Katrina. Stress exposure was associated strongly with SED, and 20.3% of youth with high stress exposure had hurricane-attributable SED. Death of a loved one had the strongest association with SED among pre-hurricane residents of New Orleans, whereas exposure to physical adversity had the strongest association in the remainder of the sample. Among children with stress exposure, parental psychopathology and poverty were associated with SED. Conclusions The prevalence of SED among youth exposed to Hurricane Katrina remains high 18–27 months after the storm, suggesting a substantial need for mental health treatment resources in the hurricane-affected areas. Youth who were exposed to hurricane-related stressors, have a family history of psychopathology, and have lower family incomes are at greatest risk for long-term psychiatric impairment. PMID:19797983

Extracting hurricane eye morphology from spaceborne SAR images using morphological analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Isabella K.; Shamsoddini, Ali; Li, Xiaofeng; Trinder, John C.; Li, Zeyu

2016-07-01

Hurricanes are among the most destructive global natural disasters. Thus recognizing and extracting their morphology is important for understanding their dynamics. Conventional optical sensors, due to cloud cover associated with hurricanes, cannot reveal the intense air-sea interaction occurring at the sea surface. In contrast, the unique capabilities of spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data for cloud penetration, and its backscattering signal characteristics enable the extraction of the sea surface roughness. Therefore, SAR images enable the measurement of the size and shape of hurricane eyes, which reveal their evolution and strength. In this study, using six SAR hurricane images, we have developed a mathematical morphology method for automatically extracting the hurricane eyes from C-band SAR data. Skeleton pruning based on discrete skeleton evolution (DSE) was used to ensure global and local preservation of the hurricane eye shape. This distance weighted algorithm applied in a hierarchical structure for extraction of the edges of the hurricane eyes, can effectively avoid segmentation errors by reducing redundant skeletons attributed to speckle noise along the edges of the hurricane eye. As a consequence, the skeleton pruning has been accomplished without deficiencies in the key hurricane eye skeletons. A morphology-based analyses of the subsequent reconstructions of the hurricane eyes shows a high degree of agreement with the hurricane eye areas derived from reference data based on NOAA manual work.

Hurricanes

MedlinePlus

A hurricane is a severe type of tropical storm. Hurricanes produce high winds, heavy rains and thunderstorms. ... exceed 155 miles per hour. Hurricanes and tropical storms can also spawn tornadoes and lead to flooding. ...

76 FR 54531 - Pipeline Safety: Potential for Damage to Pipeline Facilities Caused by the Passage of Hurricanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-01

... production and processing is prone to disruption by hurricanes. In 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused... Hurricanes AGENCY: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), DOT. ACTION: Notice... the passage of Hurricanes. ADDRESSES: This document can be viewed on the Office of Pipeline Safety...

76 FR 63541 - Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-13

... Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Regulatory guide... regulatory guide, (RG) 1.221, ``Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants... missiles that a nuclear power plant should be designed to withstand to prevent undue risk to the health and...

On the Influence of Global Warming on Atlantic Hurricane Frequency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseini, S. R.; Scaioni, M.; Marani, M.

2018-04-01

In this paper, the possible connection between the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes to the climate change, mainly the variation in the Atlantic Ocean surface temperature has been investigated. The correlation between the observed hurricane frequency for different categories of hurricane's intensity and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been examined over the Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis Regions (ACR). The results suggest that in general, the frequency of hurricanes have a high correlation with SST. In particular, the frequency of extreme hurricanes with Category 5 intensity has the highest correlation coefficient (R = 0.82). In overall, the analyses in this work demonstrates the influence of the climate change condition on the Atlantic hurricanes and suggest a strong correlation between the frequency of extreme hurricanes and SST in the ACR.

Risk Assessment of Hurricane Storm Surge for Tampa Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

2011-12-01

Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States and many other coastal areas around the world. Risk assessment of current and future hurricane storm surge provides the basis for risk mitigation and related decision making. This study investigates the hurricane surge risk for Tampa Bay, located on the central west coast of Florida. Although fewer storms have made landfall in the central west Florida than in regions farther west in the Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of U.S., Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge due to its geophysical features. It is surrounded by low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. Also, edge waves trapped on the west Florida shelf can propagate along the coastline and affect the sea level outside the area of a forced storm surge; Tampa Bay may be affected by storms traversing some distance outside the Bay. Moreover, when the propagation speed of the edge wave is close to that of a storm moving parallel to the coast, resonance may occur and the water elevation in the Bay may be greatly enhanced. Therefore, Tampa Bay is vulnerable to storms with a broad spectrum of characteristics. We apply a model-based risk assessment method to carry out the investigation. To estimate the current surge risk, we apply a statistical/deterministic hurricane model to generate a set of 1500 storms for the Tampa area, under the observed current climate (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) estimated from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. To study the effect of climate change, we use four climate models, CNRM-CM3, ECHAM, GFDL-CM2.0, and MIROC3.2, respectively, to drive the hurricane model to generate four sets of 1500 Tampa storms under current climate conditions (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) and another four under future climate conditions of the IPCC-AR4 A1B emission scenario (represented by 2081-2100 statistics). Then, we apply two hydrodynamic models, the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model and the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model with grids of various resolutions to simulate the surges induced by the synthetic storms. The surge risk under each of the climate scenarios is depicted by a surge return level curve (exceedance probability curve). For the city of Tampa, the heights of the 100-year, 500-year, and 1000-year surges under the current climate are estimated to be 3.85, 5.66, and 6.31 m, respectively. Two of the four climate models predict that surge return periods will be significantly shortened in the future climates due to the change of storm climatology; the current 100-year surge may happen every 50 years or less, the 500-year surge every 200 years or less, and the 1000-year surge every 300 years or less. The other two climate models predict that the surge return periods will become moderately shorter or remain almost unchanged in the future climates. Extreme surges up to 12 m at Tampa appear in our simulations. Although occurring with very small probabilities, these extreme surges would have a devastating impact on the Tampa Bay area. By examining the generated synthetic surge database, we study the characteristics of the extreme storms at Tampa Bay, especially for the storms that may interact with edge waves along the Florida west coast.

Five Years Later: Recovery from Post Traumatic Stress and Psychological Distress Among Low-Income Mothers Affected by Hurricane Katrina

PubMed Central

Paxson, Christina; Fussell, Elizabeth; Rhodes, Jean; Waters, Mary

2012-01-01

Hurricane Katrina, which struck the Gulf Coast of the United States in August 2005, exposed area residents to trauma and extensive property loss. However, little is known about the long-run effects of the hurricane on the mental health of those who were exposed. This study documents long-run changes in mental health among a particularly vulnerable group—low income mothers—from before to after the hurricane, and identifies factors that are associated with different recovery trajectories. Longitudinal surveys of 532 low-income mothers from New Orleans were conducted approximately one year before, 7 to 19 months after, and 43 to 54 months after Hurricane Katrina. The surveys collected information on mental health, social support, earnings and hurricane experiences. We document changes in post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS), as measured by the Impact of Event Scale-Revised, and symptoms of psychological distress (PD), as measured by the K6 scale. We find that although PTSS has declined over time after the hurricane, it remained high 43 to 54 months later. PD also declined, but did not return to pre-hurricane levels. At both time periods, psychological distress before the hurricane, hurricane-related home damage, and exposure to traumatic events were associated with PTSS that co-occurred with PD. Hurricane-related home damage and traumatic events were associated with PTSS without PD. Home damage was an especially important predictor of chronic PTSS, with and without PD. Most hurricane stressors did not have strong associations with PD alone over the short or long run. Over the long run, higher earnings were protective against PD, and greater social support was protective against PTSS. These results indicate that mental health problems, particularly PTSS alone or in co-occurrence with PD, among Hurricane Katrina survivors remain a concern, especially for those who experienced hurricane-related trauma and had poor mental health or low socioeconomic status before the hurricane. PMID:22137245

Five years later: recovery from post traumatic stress and psychological distress among low-income mothers affected by Hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Paxson, Christina; Fussell, Elizabeth; Rhodes, Jean; Waters, Mary

2012-01-01

Hurricane Katrina, which struck the Gulf Coast of the United States in August 2005, exposed area residents to trauma and extensive property loss. However, little is known about the long-run effects of the hurricane on the mental health of those who were exposed. This study documents long-run changes in mental health among a particularly vulnerable group-low income mothers-from before to after the hurricane, and identifies factors that are associated with different recovery trajectories. Longitudinal surveys of 532 low-income mothers from New Orleans were conducted approximately one year before, 7-19 months after, and 43-54 months after Hurricane Katrina. The surveys collected information on mental health, social support, earnings and hurricane experiences. We document changes in post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS), as measured by the Impact of Event Scale-Revised, and symptoms of psychological distress (PD), as measured by the K6 scale. We find that although PTSS has declined over time after the hurricane, it remained high 43-54 months later. PD also declined, but did not return to pre-hurricane levels. At both time periods, psychological distress before the hurricane, hurricane-related home damage, and exposure to traumatic events were associated with PTSS that co-occurred with PD. Hurricane-related home damage and traumatic events were associated with PTSS without PD. Home damage was an especially important predictor of chronic PTSS, with and without PD. Most hurricane stressors did not have strong associations with PD alone over the short or long run. Over the long run, higher earnings were protective against PD, and greater social support was protective against PTSS. These results indicate that mental health problems, particularly PTSS alone or in co-occurrence with PD, among Hurricane Katrina survivors remain a concern, especially for those who experienced hurricane-related trauma and had poor mental health or low socioeconomic status before the hurricane. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hurricane Watch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobgood, Jay S.

Hurricanes, the strongest form of tropical cyclones over the Atlantic Ocean, are among the most deadly and destructive natural hazards. Population growth along the eastern and southern coasts of the United States places millions of people who have never experienced a major hurricane in harm's way during each hurricane season. A successful evacuation requires accurate forecasts and public education about the hazards associated with these violent storms. Bob Heets and Jack Williams' Hurricane Watch informs readers without formal training in meteorology about hurricanes and the dangers they present. Although the authors make some references to tropical cyclones in other parts of the world, the book's primary focus is on hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean.

New methods for state estimation and adaptive observation of environmental flow systems leveraging coordinated swarms of sensor vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bewley, Thomas

2015-11-01

Accurate long-term forecasts of the path and intensity of hurricanes are imperative to protect property and save lives. Accurate estimations and forecasts of the spread of large-scale contaminant plumes, such as those from Deepwater Horizon, Fukushima, and recent volcanic eruptions in Iceland, are essential for assessing environment impact, coordinating remediation efforts, and in certain cases moving folks out of harm's way. The challenges in estimating and forecasting such systems include: (a) environmental flow modeling, (b) high-performance real-time computing, (c) assimilating measured data into numerical simulations, and (d) acquiring in-situ data, beyond what can be measured from satellites, that is maximally relevant for reducing forecast uncertainty. This talk will focus on new techniques for addressing (c) and (d), namely, data assimilation and adaptive observation, in both hurricanes and large-scale environmental plumes. In particular, we will present a new technique for the energy-efficient coordination of swarms of sensor-laden balloons for persistent, in-situ, distributed, real-time measurement of developing hurricanes, leveraging buoyancy control only (coupled with the predictable and strongly stratified flowfield within the hurricane). Animations of these results are available at http://flowcontrol.ucsd.edu/3dhurricane.mp4 and http://flowcontrol.ucsd.edu/katrina.mp4. We also will survey our unique hybridization of the venerable Ensemble Kalman and Variational approaches to large-scale data assimilation in environmental flow systems, and how essentially the dual of this hybrid approach may be used to solve the adaptive observation problem in a uniquely effective and rigorous fashion.

Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, A.; Jonkman, S. N.; Van Ledden, M.

2015-01-01

Since the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a flood risk analysis the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that - depending on the flood scenario - the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large-scale engineering systems (e.g., other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk to life of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Indicative effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation and discussion.

Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, A.; Jonkman, S. N.; Van Ledden, M.

2014-01-01

After the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to hurricane Katrina in the year 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a risk-based approach the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that - depending on the flood scenario - the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large scale engineering systems (e.g. other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation.

Difficulties in separating hurricane induced effects from natural benthic succession: Hurricane Isabel, a case study from Eastern Virginia, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, C.; Richardson, C. A.; Luckenbach, M.; Seed, R.

2009-11-01

Hurricane Isabel reached the Eastern seaboard of North America on 18 September 2003 causing estimated damage >3 billion US dollars and the death of ˜50 people. Isabel is considered to be one of the most significant tropical cyclones to affect Virginia, since the Chesapeake Potomac Hurricane of 1933 and Hurricane Hazel in 1954. A study of the temporal changes in the benthic fauna pre- and post-hurricane was conducted on an intertidal sandflat within the dynamic barrier island system near Wachapreague, Eastern Virginia. Replicate sediment cores were collected 3 weeks before Isabel made landfall and further samples were collected on 5 occasions over the following 20 months. An immediate effect of Isabel was a doubling in the number of species, a significant increase in invertebrate species diversity ( H') and a rise in opportunistic species and deposit feeders, but a non-significant increase in the total number of organisms. Changes in infauna occurred such that by the end of the study there were significantly increased numbers of species, faunal abundances and community diversity measures, as compared with pre-hurricane samples, suggesting a potentially positive medium-term effect of this hurricane perturbation. The most notable direct effects of the hurricane were on the relative abundances of feeding guilds with a reduction in interface feeders from 87% pre-hurricane to 64% post-hurricane, and an increase in surface deposit feeders from 7% pre-hurricane to 20% post-hurricane. The study highlights potential problems in interpreting post-perturbation data when insufficient pre-perturbation data exist.

Observational Estimates of the Horizontal Eddy Diffusivity and Mixing Length in the Low-Level Region of Intense Hurricanes

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

flight-level data collected by research aircraft that penetrated the eyewalls of Category 5 Hurricane Hugo (1989), Category 4 Hurricane Allen (1980) and...data collected by research aircraft that penetrated the eyewalls of Category 5 Hurricane Hugo 42 (1989), Category 4 Hurricane Allen (1980) and Category...understood. 87 Using the data from the periods of eyewall penetrations in the intense Hurricanes Hugo 88 (1989) and Allen (1980), Zhang et al. (2011a

Impact of Hurricane Exposure on Reproductive Health Outcomes, Florida, 2004.

PubMed

Grabich, Shannon C; Robinson, Whitney R; Konrad, Charles E; Horney, Jennifer A

2017-08-01

Prenatal hurricane exposure may be an increasingly important contributor to poor reproductive health outcomes. In the current literature, mixed associations have been suggested between hurricane exposure and reproductive health outcomes. This may be due, in part, to residual confounding. We assessed the association between hurricane exposure and reproductive health outcomes by using a difference-in-difference analysis technique to control for confounding in a cohort of Florida pregnancies. We implemented a difference-in-difference analysis to evaluate hurricane weather and reproductive health outcomes including low birth weight, fetal death, and birth rate. The study population for analysis included all Florida pregnancies conceived before or during the 2003 and 2004 hurricane season. Reproductive health data were extracted from vital statistics records from the Florida Department of Health. In 2004, 4 hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne) made landfall in rapid succession; whereas in 2003, no hurricanes made landfall in Florida. Overall models using the difference-in-difference analysis showed no association between exposure to hurricane weather and reproductive health. The inconsistency of the literature on hurricane exposure and reproductive health may be in part due to biases inherent in pre-post or regression-based county-level comparisons. We found no associations between hurricane exposure and reproductive health. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:407-411).

A review of quasi-coherent structures in a numerically simulated turbulent boundary layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, S. K.; Kline, S. J.; Spalart, P. R.

1989-01-01

Preliminary results of a comprehensive study of the structural aspects of a numerically simulated number turbulent boundary layer are presented. A direct Navier-Stokes simulation of a flat-plate, zero pressure gradient boundary layer at Re0 = 670 was used. Most of the known nonrandom, coherent features of turbulent boundary layers are confirmed in the simulation, and several new aspects of their spatial character are reported. The spatial relationships between many of the various structures are described, forming the basis for a more complete kinematical picture of boundary layer physics than has been previously known. In particular, the importance of vortex structures of various forms to the generation of Reynolds shear stress is investigated.

Numerical Study of Outlet Boundary Conditions for Unsteady Turbulent Internal Flows Using the NCC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Nan-Suey; Shih, Tsan-Hsing

2009-01-01

This paper presents the results of studies on the outlet boundary conditions for turbulent internal flow simulations. Several outlet boundary conditions have been investigated by applying the National Combustion Code (NCC) to the configuration of a LM6000 single injector flame tube. First of all, very large eddy simulations (VLES) have been performed using the partially resolved numerical simulation (PRNS) approach, in which both the nonlinear and linear dynamic subscale models were employed. Secondly, unsteady Reynolds averaged Navier- Stokes (URANS) simulations have also been performed for the same configuration to investigate the effects of different outlet boundary conditions in the context of URANS. Thirdly, the possible role of the initial condition is inspected by using three different initial flow fields for both the PRNS/VLES simulation and the URANS simulation. The same grid is used for all the simulations and the number of mesh element is about 0.5 million. The main purpose of this study is to examine the long-time behavior of the solution as determined by the imposed outlet boundary conditions. For a particular simulation to be considered as successful under the given initial and boundary conditions, the solution must be sustainable in a physically meaningful manner over a sufficiently long period of time. The commonly used outlet boundary condition for steady Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulation is a fixed pressure at the outlet with all the other dependent variables being extrapolated from the interior. The results of the present study suggest that this is also workable for the URANS simulation of the LM6000 injector flame tube. However, it does not work for the PRNS/VLES simulation due to the unphysical reflections of the pressure disturbances at the outlet boundary. This undesirable situation can be practically alleviated by applying a simple unsteady convection equation for the pressure disturbances at the outlet boundary. The numerical results presented in this paper suggest that this unsteady convection of pressure disturbances at the outlet works very well for all the unsteady simulations (both PRNS/VLES and URANS) of the LM6000 single injector flame tube.

iFLOOD: A Real Time Flood Forecast System for Total Water Modeling in the National Capital Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumi, S. J.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Extreme flood events are the costliest natural hazards impacting the US and frequently cause extensive damages to infrastructure, disruption to economy and loss of lives. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought severe damage to South Carolina and demonstrated the importance of accurate flood hazard predictions that requires the integration of riverine and coastal model forecasts for total water prediction in coastal and tidal areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Ocean Service (NOS) provide flood forecasts for almost the entire US, still there are service-gap areas in tidal regions where no official flood forecast is available. The National capital region is vulnerable to multi-flood hazards including high flows from annual inland precipitation events and surge driven coastal inundation along the tidal Potomac River. Predicting flood levels on such tidal areas in river-estuarine zone is extremely challenging. The main objective of this study is to develop the next generation of flood forecast systems capable of providing accurate and timely information to support emergency management and response in areas impacted by multi-flood hazards. This forecast system is capable of simulating flood levels in the Potomac and Anacostia River incorporating the effects of riverine flooding from the upstream basins, urban storm water and tidal oscillations from the Chesapeake Bay. Flood forecast models developed so far have been using riverine data to simulate water levels for Potomac River. Therefore, the idea is to use forecasted storm surge data from a coastal model as boundary condition of this system. Final output of this validated model will capture the water behavior in river-estuary transition zone far better than the one with riverine data only. The challenge for this iFLOOD forecast system is to understand the complex dynamics of multi-flood hazards caused by storm surges, riverine flow, tidal oscillation and urban storm water. Automated system simulations will help to develop a seamless integration with the boundary systems in the service-gap area with new insights into our scientific understanding of such complex systems. A visualization system is being developed to allow stake holders and the community to have access to the flood forecasting for their region with sufficient lead time.

Species-specific Seedling Responses to Hurricane Disturbance in a Puerto Rican Rain Forest.

Treesearch

Lawrence R. Walker; D. Jean Lodge; Sandra M. Guzman-Grajales; Ned \\t Fetcher

2003-01-01

Seedling dynamics were followed in a Puerto Rican forest for 20 months following a severe hurricane to study the interactive effects of hurricane debris, nutrients, and light on seedling diversity, density, growth, and mortality. Three treatments (debris removal, an unaltered control with hurricane debris, and chemical fertilization added to hurricane debris) altered...

Increased Accuracy in Statistical Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nateghi, R.; Quiring, S. M.; Guikema, S. D.

2012-12-01

Hurricanes are among the costliest and most destructive natural hazards in the U.S. Accurate hurricane forecasts are crucial to optimal preparedness and mitigation decisions in the U.S. where 50 percent of the population lives within 50 miles of the coast. We developed a flexible statistical approach to forecast annual number of hurricanes in the Atlantic region during the hurricane season. Our model is based on the method of Random Forest and captures the complex relationship between hurricane activity and climatic conditions through careful variable selection, model testing and validation. We used the National Hurricane Center's Best Track hurricane data from 1949-2011 and sixty-one candidate climate descriptors to develop our model. The model includes information prior to the hurricane season, i.e., from the last three months of the previous year (Oct. through Dec.) and the first five months of the current year (January through May). Our forecast errors are substantially lower than other leading forecasts such as that of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Seasonal prediction of hurricane activity reaching the coast of the United States.

PubMed

Saunders, Mark A; Lea, Adam S

2005-04-21

Much of the property damage from natural hazards in the United States is caused by landfalling hurricanes--strong tropical cyclones that reach the coast. For the southeastern Atlantic coast of the US, a statistical method for forecasting the occurrence of landfalling hurricanes for the season ahead has been reported, but the physical mechanisms linking the predictor variables to the frequency of hurricanes remain unclear. Here we present a statistical model that uses July wind anomalies between 1950 and 2003 to predict with significant and useful skill the wind energy of US landfalling hurricanes for the following main hurricane season (August to October). We have identified six regions over North America and over the east Pacific and North Atlantic oceans where July wind anomalies, averaged between heights of 925 and 400 mbar, exhibit a stationary and significant link to the energy of landfalling hurricanes during the subsequent hurricane season. The wind anomalies in these regions are indicative of atmospheric circulation patterns that either favour or hinder evolving hurricanes from reaching US shores.

Simulations of QCD and QED with C* boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Martin; Lucini, Biagio; Patella, Agostino; Tantalo, Nazario

2018-03-01

We present exploratory results from dynamical simulations of QCD in isolation, as well as QCD coupled to QED, with C* boundary conditions. In finite volume, the use of C* boundary conditions allows for a gauge invariant and local formulation of QED without zero modes. In particular we show that the simulations reproduce known results and that masses of charged mesons can be extracted in a completely gauge invariant way. For the simulations we use a modified version of the HiRep code. The primary features of the simulation code are presented and we discuss some details regarding the implementation of C* boundary conditions and the simulated lattice action. Preprint: CP3-Origins-2017-046 DNRF90, CERN-TH-2017-214

Sea spray production by bag breakup mode of fragmentation of the air-water interface at strong and hurricane wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troitskaya, Yuliya; Kandaurov, Alexander; Ermakova, Olga; Kozlov, Dmitry; Sergeev, Daniil; Zilitinkevich, Sergej

2016-04-01

Sea sprays is a typical element of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) of large importance for marine meteorology, atmospheric chemistry and climate studies. They are considered as a crucial factor in the development of hurricanes and severe extratropical storms, since they can significantly enhance exchange of mass, heat and momentum between the ocean and the atmosphere. This exchange is directly provided by spume droplets with the sizes from 10 microns to a few millimeters mechanically torn off the crests of a breaking waves and fall down to the ocean due to gravity. The fluxes associated with the spray are determined by the rate of droplet production at the surface quantified by the sea spray generation function (SSGF), defined as the number of spray particles of radius r produced from the unit area of water surface in unit time. However, the mechanism of spume droplets' formation is unknown and empirical estimates of SSGF varied over six orders of magnitude; therefore, the production rate of large sea spray droplets is not adequately described and there are significant uncertainties in estimations of exchange processes in hurricanes. Experimental core of our work comprise laboratory experiments employing high-speed video-filming, which have made it possible to disclose how water surface looks like at extremely strong winds and how exactly droplets are torn off wave crests. We classified events responsible for spume droplet, including bursting of submerged bubbles, generation and breakup of "projections" or liquid filaments (Koa, 1981) and "bag breakup", namely, inflating and consequent blowing of short-lived, sail-like pieces of the water-surface film, "bags". The process is similar to "bag-breakup" mode of fragmentation of liquid droplets and jets in gaseous flows. Basing on statistical analysis of results of these experiments we show that the main mechanism of spray-generation is attributed to "bag-breakup mechanism On the base of general principles of statistical physics (model of a canonical ensemble) we developed statistics of the "bag-breakup" events and constructed sea spray generation function (SSGF) for the mechanism of "bag-breakup". The "bag breakup" SSGF is shown to be in reasonable agreement in magnitude with SSFGs considered as the most reliable source function for spume droplets. The new SSGF is employed for estimate of the new"bag-breakup" mechanism to momentum and energy exchange in marine atmospheric boundary layer at hurricane conditions. This work was supported by the Russian Foundation of Basic Research (14-05-91767, 13-05-12093, 16-05-00839, 14-05-91767, 16-55-52025) and experiment and equipment was supported by Russian Science Foundation (Agreements 14-17-00667 and 15-17-20009 respectively), Yu.Troitskaya, A.Kandaurov and D.Sergeev were partially supported by FP7 collaborative Project No. 612610.

Public Use of Online Hydrology Information for Harris County and Houston, Texas, during Hurricane Harvey and Suggested Improvement for Future Flood Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lilly, M. R.; Feditova, A.; Levine, K.; Giardino, J. R.

2017-12-01

The Harris County Flood Control District has an impressive amount of information available for the public related to flood management and response. During Hurricane Harvey, this information was used by the authors to help address daily questions from family and friends living in the Houston area. Common near-real-time reporting data included precipitation and water levels. Maps included locations of data stations, stream or bayou conditions (in bank, out of bank) and watershed or drainage boundaries. In general, the data station reporting and online information was updating well throughout the hurricane and post-flooding period. Only a few of the data reporting stations had problems with water level sensor measurements. The overall information was helpful to hydrologists and floodplain managers. The online information could not easily answer all common questions residents may have during a flood event. Some of the more common questions were how to use the water-level information to know the potential extent of flooding and relative location of flooding to the location of residents. To help address the questions raised during the flooding on how to use the available water level data, we used Google Earth to get lot and intersection locations to help show the relative differences between nearby water-level stations and residences of interest. The reported resolution of the Google Earth elevation data is 1-foot. To help confirm the use of this data, we compared Google Earth approximate elevations with reported Harris County Floodplain Reference Mark individual reports. This method helped verify we could use the Google Earth information for approximate comparisons. We also faced questions on what routes to take if evacuation was needed, and where to go to get to higher ground elevations. Google Earth again provided a helpful and easy to use interface to look at road and intersection elevations and develop suggested routes for family and friends to take to avoid low areas that may be subject to flooding. These and other recommendations that helped answer common questions by residents reacting to the hurricane and subsequent flooding conditions are summarized with examples.

Tidal Boundary Conditions in SEAWAT

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mulligan, Ann E.; Langevin, Christian; Post, Vincent E.A.

2011-01-01

SEAWAT, a U.S. Geological Survey groundwater flow and transport code, is increasingly used to model the effects of tidal motion on coastal aquifers. Different options are available to simulate tidal boundaries but no guidelines exist nor have comparisons been made to identify the most effective approach. We test seven methods to simulate a sloping beach and a tidal flat. The ocean is represented in one of the three ways: directly using a high hydraulic conductivity (high-K) zone and indirect simulation via specified head boundaries using either the General Head Boundary (GHB) or the new Periodic Boundary Condition (PBC) package. All beach models simulate similar water fluxes across the upland boundary and across the sediment-water interface although the ratio of intertidal to subtidal flow is different at low tide. Simulating a seepage face results in larger intertidal fluxes and influences near-shore heads and salinity. Major differences in flow occur in the tidal flat simulations. Because SEAWAT does not simulate unsaturated flow the water table only rises via flow through the saturated zone. This results in delayed propagation of the rising tidal signal inland. Inundation of the tidal flat is delayed as is flow into the aquifer across the flat. This is severe in the high-K and PBC models but mild in the GHB models. Results indicate that any of the tidal boundary options are fine if the ocean-aquifer interface is steep. However, as the slope of that interface decreases, the high-K and PBC approaches perform poorly and the GHB boundary is preferable.

Analyzing after-action reports from Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina: repeated, modified, and newly created recommendations.

PubMed

Knox, Claire Connolly

2013-01-01

Thirteen years after Hurricane Andrew struck Homestead, FL, Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, Alabama, and southeastern Louisiana. Along with all its destruction, the term "catastrophic" was redefined. This article extends the literature on these hurricanes by providing a macrolevel analysis of The Governor's Disaster Planning and Response Review Committee Final Report from Hurricane Andrew and three federal after-action reports from Hurricane Katrina, as well as a cursory review of relevant literature. Results provide evidence that previous lessons have not been learned or institutionalized with many recommendations being repeated or modified. This article concludes with a discussion of these lessons, as well as new issues arising during Hurricane Katrina.

A digital simulation of message traffic for natural disaster warning communications satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hein, G. F.; Stevenson, S. M.

1972-01-01

Various types of weather communications are required to alert industries and the general public about the impending occurrence of tornados, hurricanes, snowstorms, floods, etc. A natural disaster warning satellite system has been proposed for meeting the communications requirements of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Message traffic for a communications satellite was simulated with a digital computer in order to determine the number of communications channels to meet system requirements. Poisson inputs are used for arrivals and an exponential distribution is used for service.

Automatic, unstructured mesh optimization for simulation and assessment of tide- and surge-driven hydrodynamics in a longitudinal estuary: St. Johns River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacopoulos, Peter

2018-05-01

A localized truncation error analysis with complex derivatives (LTEA+CD) is applied recursively with advanced circulation (ADCIRC) simulations of tides and storm surge for finite element mesh optimization. Mesh optimization is demonstrated with two iterations of LTEA+CD for tidal simulation in the lower 200 km of the St. Johns River, located in northeast Florida, and achieves more than an over 50% decrease in the number of mesh nodes, relating to a twofold increase in efficiency, at a zero cost to model accuracy. The recursively generated meshes using LTEA+CD lead to successive reductions in the global cumulative truncation error associated with the model mesh. Tides are simulated with root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.09-0.21 m and index of agreement (IA) values generally in the 80s and 90s percentage ranges. Tidal currents are simulated with RMSE of 0.09-0.23 m s-1 and IA values of 97% and greater. Storm tide due to Hurricane Matthew 2016 is simulated with RMSE of 0.09-0.33 m and IA values of 75-96%. Analysis of the LTEA+CD results shows the M2 constituent to dominate the node spacing requirement in the St. Johns River, with the M4 and M6 overtides and the STEADY constituent contributing some. Friction is the predominant physical factor influencing the target element size distribution, especially along the main river stem, while frequency (inertia) and Coriolis (rotation) are supplementary contributing factors. The combination of interior- and boundary-type computational molecules, providing near-full coverage of the model domain, renders LTEA+CD an attractive mesh generation/optimization tool for complex coastal and estuarine domains. The mesh optimization procedure using LTEA+CD is automatic and extensible to other finite element-based numerical models. Discussion is provided on the scope of LTEA+CD, the starting point (mesh) of the procedure, the user-specified scaling of the LTEA+CD results, and the iteration (termination) of LTEA+CD for mesh optimization.

On the relationship between hurricane cost and the integrated wind profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Toumi, R.

2016-11-01

It is challenging to identify metrics that best capture hurricane destructive potential and costs. Although it has been found that the sea surface temperature and vertical wind shear can both make considerable changes to the hurricane destructive potential metrics, it is still unknown which plays a more important role. Here we present a new method to reconstruct the historical wind structure of hurricanes that allows us, for the first time, to calculate the correlation of damage with integrated power dissipation and integrated kinetic energy of all hurricanes at landfall since 1988. We find that those metrics, which include the horizontal wind structure, rather than just maximum intensity, are much better correlated with the hurricane cost. The vertical wind shear over the main development region of hurricanes plays a more dominant role than the sea surface temperature in controlling these metrics and therefore also ultimately the cost of hurricanes.

U.S. Army Special Forces and Homeland Security Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

22 2. Exemplar — Hurricane Charley — August 9-14, 2004..................24...Hurricane Charley — August 9-14, 2004 Hurricane Charley struck the Southwest coast of Florida as a category 4 hurricane on August 13, 2004. 62 “The...billion in damages in Florida.64 At least nine people in Florida died as a direct result of Hurricane Charley , in addition to another twenty deaths

Multiscale Modeling of Grain-Boundary Fracture: Cohesive Zone Models Parameterized From Atomistic Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glaessgen, Edward H.; Saether, Erik; Phillips, Dawn R.; Yamakov, Vesselin

2006-01-01

A multiscale modeling strategy is developed to study grain boundary fracture in polycrystalline aluminum. Atomistic simulation is used to model fundamental nanoscale deformation and fracture mechanisms and to develop a constitutive relationship for separation along a grain boundary interface. The nanoscale constitutive relationship is then parameterized within a cohesive zone model to represent variations in grain boundary properties. These variations arise from the presence of vacancies, intersticies, and other defects in addition to deviations in grain boundary angle from the baseline configuration considered in the molecular dynamics simulation. The parameterized cohesive zone models are then used to model grain boundaries within finite element analyses of aluminum polycrystals.

Serious emotional disturbance among youths exposed to Hurricane Katrina 2 years postdisaster.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Katie A; Fairbank, John A; Gruber, Michael J; Jones, Russell T; Lakoma, Matthew D; Pfefferbaum, Betty; Sampson, Nancy A; Kessler, Ronald C

2009-11-01

To estimate the prevalence of serious emotional disturbance (SED) among children and adolescents exposed to Hurricane Katrina along with the associations of SED with hurricane-related stressors, sociodemographics, and family factors 18 to 27 months after the hurricane. A probability sample of prehurricane residents of areas affected by Hurricane Katrina was administered a telephone survey. Respondents provided information on up to two of their children (n = 797) aged 4 to 17 years. The survey assessed hurricane-related stressors and lifetime history of psychopathology in respondents, screened for 12-month SED in respondents' children using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, and determined whether children's emotional and behavioral problems were attributable to Hurricane Katrina. The estimated prevalence of SED was 14.9%, and 9.3% of the youths were estimated to have SED that is directly attributable to Hurricane Katrina. Stress exposure was associated strongly with SED, and 20.3% of the youths with high stress exposure had hurricane-attributable SED. Death of a loved one had the strongest association with SED among prehurricane residents of New Orleans, whereas exposure to physical adversity had the strongest association in the remainder of the sample. Among children with stress exposure, parental psychopathology and poverty were associated with SED. The prevalence of SED among youths exposed to Hurricane Katrina remains high 18 to 27 months after the storm, suggesting a substantial need for mental health treatment resources in the hurricane-affected areas. The youths who were exposed to hurricane-related stressors, have a family history of psychopathology, and have lower family incomes are at greatest risk for long-term psychiatric impairment.

Directional spectra of hurricane-generated waves in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Kelin; Chen, Qin

2011-10-01

Hurricane-induced directional wave spectra in the Gulf of Mexico are investigated based on the measurements collected at 12 buoys during 7 hurricane events in recent years. Focusing on hurricane-generated wave spectra, we only consider the wave measurements at the buoys within eight times the radius of the hurricane maximum wind speed (Rmax) from the hurricane center. A series of numerical experiments using a third-generation spectral wave prediction model were carried out to gain insight into the mechanism controlling the directional and frequency distributions of hurricane wave energy. It is found that hurricane wave spectra are almost swell-dominated except for the right-rear quadrant of a hurricane with respect to the forward direction, where the local strong winds control the spectra. Despite the complexity of a hurricane wind field, most of the spectra are mono-modal, similar to those under fetch-limited, unidirectional winds. However, bi-modal spectra were also found in both measurements and model results. Four types of bi-modal spectra have been observed. Type I happens far away (>6 × Rmax) from a hurricane. Type II is bi-modal in frequency with significant differences in direction. It happens in the two left quadrants when the direction of hurricane winds deviates considerably from the swell direction. Type III is bi-modal in frequency in almost the same wave direction with two close peaks. It occurs when the energy of locally-generated wind-sea is only partially transferred to the swell energy by non-linear wave-wave interactions. Type IV was observed in shallow waters owing to coastal effects.

Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S. S.

2017-12-01

The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

Katrina and Rita were lit up with lightning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, X.-M.; Harlin, J.; Stock, M.; Stanley, M.; Regan, A.; Wiens, K.; Hamlin, T.; Pongratz, M.; Suszcynsky, D.; Light, T.

Hurricanes generally produce very little lightning activity compared to other noncyclonic storms, and lightning is especially sparse in the eye wall and inner regions within tens of kilometers surrounding the eye [Molinari et al., 1994, 1999]. (The eye wall is the wall of clouds that encircles the eye of the hurricane.) Lightning can sometimes be detected in the outer, spiral rainbands, but the lightning occurrence rate varies significantly from hurricane to hurricane as well as within an individual hurricane's lifetime.Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the U.S. Gulf coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, and their distinctions were not just limited to their tremendous intensity and damage caused. They also differed from typical hurricanes in their lightning production rate.

Hurricane Earl Multi-level Winds

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-09-02

NASA Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer instrument captured this image of Hurricane Earl Aug. 30, 2010. At this time, Hurricane Earl was a Category 3 storm. The hurricane eye is just visible on the right edge of the MISR image swath.

Examining Hurricane Track Length and Stage Duration Since 1980

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fandrich, K. M.; Pennington, D.

2017-12-01

Each year, tropical systems impact thousands of people worldwide. Current research shows a correlation between the intensity and frequency of hurricanes and the changing climate. However, little is known about other prominent hurricane features. This includes information about hurricane track length (the total distance traveled from tropical depression through a hurricane's final category assignment) and how this distance may have changed with time. Also unknown is the typical duration of a hurricane stage, such as tropical storm to category one, and if the time spent in each stage has changed in recent decades. This research aims to examine changes in hurricane stage duration and track lengths for the 319 storms in NOAA's National Ocean Service Hurricane Reanalysis dataset that reached Category 2 - 5 from 1980 - 2015. Based on evident ocean warming, it is hypothesized that a general increase in track length with time will be detected, thus modern hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than past hurricanes. It is also expected that stage durations are decreasing with time so that hurricanes mature faster than in past decades. For each storm, coordinates are acquired at 4-times daily intervals throughout its duration and track lengths are computed for each 6-hour period. Total track lengths are then computed and storms are analyzed graphically and statistically by category for temporal track length changes. The stage durations of each storm are calculated as the time difference between two consecutive stages. Results indicate that average track lengths for Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes are increasing through time. These findings show that these hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than earlier Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes. In contrast, average track lengths for Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes are decreasing through time, showing less distance traveled than earlier decades. Stage durations for all Cat 2, 4 and 5 storms decrease through the decades but Cat 3 storms show a positive increase though time. This compliments the results of the track length analysis indicating that as storms intensify faster, they are doing so over a shorter distance. It is expected that this research could be used to improve hurricane track forecasting and provide information about the effects of climate change on tropical systems and the tropical environment.

Hurricane Imaging Radiometer Wind Speed and Rain Rate Retrievals during the 2010 GRIP Flight Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sahawneh, Saleem; Farrar, Spencer; Johnson, James; Jones, W. Linwood; Roberts, Jason; Biswas, Sayak; Cecil, Daniel

2014-01-01

Microwave remote sensing observations of hurricanes, from NOAA and USAF hurricane surveillance aircraft, provide vital data for hurricane research and operations, for forecasting the intensity and track of tropical storms. The current operational standard for hurricane wind speed and rain rate measurements is the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a nadir viewing passive microwave airborne remote sensor. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer, HIRAD, will extend the nadir viewing SFMR capability to provide wide swath images of wind speed and rain rate, while flying on a high altitude aircraft. HIRAD was first flown in the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes, GRIP, NASA hurricane field experiment in 2010. This paper reports on geophysical retrieval results and provides hurricane images from GRIP flights. An overview of the HIRAD instrument and the radiative transfer theory based, wind speed/rain rate retrieval algorithm is included. Results are presented for hurricane wind speed and rain rate for Earl and Karl, with comparison to collocated SFMR retrievals and WP3D Fuselage Radar images for validation purposes.

Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

2015-12-01

When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

The Impact of Dry Midlevel Air on Hurricane Intensity in Idealized Simulations with No Mean Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.; Sippel, Jason A.; Nolan, David S.

2012-01-01

This study examines the potential negative influences of dry midlevel air on the development of tropical cyclones (specifically, its role in enhancing cold downdraft activity and suppressing storm development). The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to construct two sets of idealized simulations of hurricane development in environments with different configurations of dry air. The first set of simulations begins with dry air located north of the vortex center by distances ranging from 0 to 270 km, whereas the second set of simulations begins with dry air completely surrounding the vortex, but with moist envelopes in the vortex core ranging in size from 0 to 150 km in radius. No impact of the dry air is seen for dry layers located more than 270 km north of the initial vortex center (approximately 3 times the initial radius of maximum wind). When the dry air is initially closer to the vortex center, it suppresses convective development where it entrains into the storm circulation, leading to increasingly asymmetric convection and slower storm development. The presence of dry air throughout the domain, including the vortex center, substantially slows storm development. However, the presence of a moist envelope around the vortex center eliminates the deleterious impact on storm intensity. Instead, storm size is significantly reduced. The simulations suggest that dry air slows intensification only when it is located very close to the vortex core at early times. When it does slow storm development, it does so primarily by inducing outward- moving convective asymmetries that temporarily shift latent heating radially outward away from the high-vorticity inner core.

Saharan Air Layer Interaction with Hurricane Claudette (2003)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothman, G. S.; Gill, T. E.; Chang, C.

2004-12-01

It has long been observed that the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), a large and seasonally-persistent layer of West African aeolian dust suspended over the Atlantic Ocean, may influence the variability and intensity of easterly waves and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. The radiative and conductive properties of the Saharan aerosols may contribute to warming within the dust layer, creating an anomalous baroclinic zone in the tropical North Atlantic. Environmental baroclinic instability is a mechanism for conversion of potential energy to eddy kinetic energy, facilitating wave growth. However, this same baroclinic mechanism, along with the dry properties of the SAL, could also promote asymmetry in a tropical cyclone, limiting its intensity. Detailed investigations of specific cases are necessary to better understand the radiative heating or cooling impact that the Saharan aerosols cause as well as potential influences on cyclone track and intensity stemming from the aeolian dust cloud. Here, we consider the case of Claudette in 2003. On June 29, 2003, an easterly wave embedded near the southern boundary of a broad Saharan dust layer emerged from the West African Coastal Bend region into the Atlantic Ocean. The wave propagated westward, reaching tropical storm intensity as Claudette in the Caribbean and developing into a hurricane just before making landfall on the southern Texas Gulf of Mexico coast on July 15. The SAL propagated in phase with this system throughout almost its entire evolution. Rapid intensification of Claudette into a hurricane in the last 15 hours prior to landfall was concurrent with a decoupling from the Saharan dust intrusion, with the two following separate tracks into North America at the end of the period. We performed an investigation to understand and diagnose the interaction between the Saharan Air Layer and Claudette. HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model) along-trajectory potential temperature plots as well as the MODIS-TERRA (Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer) aerosol product suggested that the intensity of Saharan dust was well correlated to heating in the environment. NOGAPS (Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) model analysis outputs revealed that the mid-level easterly jet along the southern SAL boundary was a source for potential combined barotropic-baroclinic instability, possibly contributing to the growth of the formative easterly wave. The Charney-Stern condition was satisfied for the formative tropical wave throughout most of its evolution, corresponding to the mostly progressive wave growth occurring almost consistently throughout its evolution. The current research suggests that there was a dual-celled set of circulations, forced by the SAL boundaries, but modified by the mid-level easterly jet. The presence of the dust layer appears to have been a factor playing an important role in the life cycle of this tropical cyclone. In this case, the dusty Saharan Air Layer apparently facilitated growth of the formative easterly wave, but later suppressed the intensity of Claudette until shortly before landfall.

Impacts of different characterizations of large-scale background on simulated regional-scale ozone over the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogrefe, Christian; Liu, Peng; Pouliot, George; Mathur, Rohit; Roselle, Shawn; Flemming, Johannes; Lin, Meiyun; Park, Rokjin J.

2018-03-01

This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boundary conditions derived from hemispheric or global-scale models. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations supporting this analysis were performed over the continental US for the year 2010 within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP) activities. CMAQ process analysis (PA) results highlight the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection on the ozone burden in the mid-to-upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Vertical mixing, including mixing by convective clouds, couples fluctuations in free-tropospheric ozone to ozone in lower layers. Hypothetical bounding scenarios were performed to quantify the effects of emissions, boundary conditions, and ozone dry deposition on the simulated ozone burden. Analysis of these simulations confirms that the characterization of ozone outside the regional-scale modeling domain can have a profound impact on simulated regional-scale ozone. This was further investigated by using data from four hemispheric or global modeling systems (Chemistry - Integrated Forecasting Model (C-IFS), CMAQ extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ), the Goddard Earth Observing System model coupled to chemistry (GEOS-Chem), and AM3) to derive alternate boundary conditions for the regional-scale CMAQ simulations. The regional-scale CMAQ simulations using these four different boundary conditions showed that the largest ozone abundance in the upper layers was simulated when using boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, followed by the simulations using C-IFS, AM3, and H-CMAQ boundary conditions, consistent with the analysis of the ozone fields from the global models along the CMAQ boundaries. Using boundary conditions from AM3 yielded higher springtime ozone columns burdens in the middle and lower troposphere compared to boundary conditions from the other models. For surface ozone, the differences between the AM3-driven CMAQ simulations and the CMAQ simulations driven by other large-scale models are especially pronounced during spring and winter where they can reach more than 10 ppb for seasonal mean ozone mixing ratios and as much as 15 ppb for domain-averaged daily maximum 8 h average ozone on individual days. In contrast, the differences between the C-IFS-, GEOS-Chem-, and H-CMAQ-driven regional-scale CMAQ simulations are typically smaller. Comparing simulated surface ozone mixing ratios to observations and computing seasonal and regional model performance statistics revealed that boundary conditions can have a substantial impact on model performance. Further analysis showed that boundary conditions can affect model performance across the entire range of the observed distribution, although the impacts tend to be lower during summer and for the very highest observed percentiles. The results are discussed in the context of future model development and analysis opportunities.

Helical circulations in the typhoon boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, Ryan; Businger, Steven

2010-03-01

Low-level wind data from the WSR-88D in Guam obtained in Typhoon Dale (1996) and Typhoon Keith (1997) are analyzed for coherent structures. Consistent with the results of previous studies of Atlantic hurricanes, velocity anomalies associated with coherent structures were found in the boundary layer of both storms. A total of 99 cases of coherent structures, also known as roll vortices, were documented during a 6 h evaluation period for each storm. Storm-relative roll location, roll vorticity, asymmetries in the upward and downward momentum fluxes, and signatures of circulations transverse to the mean flow associated with roll circulations were explored. The effects of terrain and convective precipitation systems, such as rainbands, on the occurrence of rolls were investigated. The results support and extend prior findings of roll observations, and can be used to help validate theoretical and numerical models of coherent structures within tropical cyclones. Moreover, the wind variations documented in this study may have application for wave runup and wind damage potential in tropical cyclones.

Weatherwords: The Hurricane Season.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buckley, Jim

1991-01-01

Information and anecdotes are provided for the following topics: the typical length of the hurricane season for the North Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico; specifics related to the practice of naming hurricanes; and categorical details related to the Saffir/Simpson scale for rating hurricane magnitude. (JJK)

ISS Passes over Hurricane_Irma_GMT248-1510

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-09-05

The International Space Station’s external cameras captured a dramatic view of Hurricane Irma as it moved across the Atlantic Ocean Sept. 5. The National Hurricane Center had recently upgraded Irma to a Category 5 storm with hurricane warnings issued across the Caribbean.

Wind turbine wakes in forest and neutral plane wall boundary layer large-eddy simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröttle, Josef; Piotrowski, Zbigniew; Gerz, Thomas; Englberger, Antonia; Dörnbrack, Andreas

2016-09-01

Wind turbine wake flow characteristics are studied in a strongly sheared and turbulent forest boundary layer and a neutral plane wall boundary layer flow. The reference simulations without wind turbine yield similar results as earlier large-eddy simulations by Shaw and Schumann (1992) and Porte-Agel et al. (2000). To use the fields from the homogeneous turbulent boundary layers on the fly as inflow fields for the wind turbine wake simulations, a new and efficient methodology was developed for the multiscale geophysical flow solver EULAG. With this method fully developed turbulent flow fields can be achieved upstream of the wind turbine which are independent of the wake flow. The large-eddy simulations reproduce known boundary-layer statistics as mean wind profile, momentum flux profile, and eddy dissipation rate of the plane wall and the forest boundary layer. The wake velocity deficit is more asymmetric above the forest and recovers faster downstream compared to the velocity deficit in the plane wall boundary layer. This is due to the inflection point in the mean streamwise velocity profile with corresponding turbulent coherent structures of high turbulence intensity in the strong shear flow above the forest.

Diatoms as Proxies for Abrupt Events in the Hudson River Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skorski, W.; Abbott, D. H.; Recasens, C.; Breger, D. L.

2014-12-01

The Hudson River estuary has been subject to many abrupt events throughout its history including hurricanes, droughts and pluvials. Hurricanes in particular are rare, discrete events that if fingerprinted can be used to develop better age models for Hudson River sediments. Proxies use observed physical characteristics or biological assemblages (e.g. diatom and foraminiferal assemblages) as tools to reconstruct past conditions prior to the modern instrumental record. Using a sediment core taken from the Hudson River (CDO2-29A), in New York City, drought and pluvial layers were selected based on Cs-137 dating while hurricane layers were determined from occurrences of tropical to subtropical foraminifera. Contrary to previous studies (Weaver, 1970, Weiss et al, 1978), more than sixty different diatom species have been identified using a scanning electron microscope (SEM). Cosmopolitan, hurricane and drought assemblages have begun to be identified after observing multiple layers (Table 1). Tropical foraminifera dominated by Globigerinoides ruber pink were also found in a hurricane layer that we infer was deposited during Hurricane Belle in 1976. More diatom abundance analyses and cataloged SEM pictures will provide further insight into these proxies. Table 1 Diatom Genera and Species Environment Clarification Cyclotella caspia Planktonic, marine-brackish Cosmopolitan Karayevia clevei Freshwater Cosmopolitan Melosira sp Planktonic, marine Cosmopolitan Thalassiosira sp Marine, brackish Cosmopolitan Staurosirella leptostauron Benthic, freshwater Cosmopolitan Actinoptychus senarius Planktonic or benthic, freshwater to brackish Hurricane and pluvial layers Amphora aff. sp Benthic, marine or freshwater Hurricane layers only Nitzschia sp Benthic, marine or freshwater Hurricane layers only Gomphonema sp Freshwater Hurricane layers only Surirella sp Marine-brackish Drought layer only Triceratium sp Marine Drought layer only Other Genera and species Environment Clarification Globigerinoides ruber pink Tropical Hurricane layers only Silicoflagellate sp Planktonic, marine Hurricane layers only

Hurricanes : get prepared !

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nauroy, Maëlle

2013-04-01

Living in France, near Paris, we have the chance not to be exposed to natural hazards. But on TV we can see, almost every year, geological disasters affecting people from all around the world. Sometimes it also affects us indirectly. For example, the Icelandic volcanic eruption of 2010 prevented some of my students to go on holidays because of the air travel disruption. Since then, every year, we study a natural disaster that has just made the headlines. This topic is of great interest for students because it is connected with their everyday life, with what they see on the news at that time. This year, they were amazed that a city as New York could be struck so violently by a hurricane. Understanding the formation of a hurricane and the consequences of such an event made them think about how to educate people and warn them in case of a hurricane. As a matter of fact, history teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing the vulnerability and what actions people should take, it is possible to reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. They designed posters, showing how a hurricane form, the risks and what to do in case of a hurricane alert. They used TV news broadcasts and educational videos as well as videos from the National Hurricane Center [of the United-States]. Later, they tried to model the formation of a hurricane and the consequences of storm surge, high winds and inland flooding on a coastal area. They filmed their experiments in order to create an interactive exhibition on hurricanes, to be displayed in the school library for other students.

Effects of Hurricane Georges on habitat use by captive-reared Hispaniolan Parrots (Amazona ventralis) released in the Dominican Republic

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, T.H.; Collazo, J.A.; Vilella, F.J.; Guerrero, S.A.

2005-01-01

We radio-tagged and released 49 captive-reared Hispaniolan Parrots (Amazona ventralis) in Parque Nacional del Este (PNE), Dominican Republic, during 1997 and 1998. Our primary objective was to develop a restoration program centered on using aviary-reared birds to further the recovery of the critically endangered Puerto Rican Parrot (A. vittata). Hurricane Georges made landfall over the release area on 22 September 1998 with sustained winds of 224 km/h, providing us with a unique opportunity to quantify responses of parrots to such disturbances. Quantitative data on such responses by any avian species are scarce, particularly for Amazona species, many of which are in peril and occur in hurricane-prone areas throughout the Caribbean. Mean home ranges of 18 parrots monitored both before and after the hurricane increased (P = 0.08) from 864 ha (CI = 689-1039 ha) pre-hurricane to 1690 ha (CI = 1003-2377 ha) post-hurricane. The total area traversed by all parrots increased > 300%, from 4884 ha pre-hurricane to 15,490 ha post-hurricane. Before Hurricane Georges, parrot activity was concentrated in coastal scrub, tall broadleaf forest, and abandoned agriculture (conucos). After the hurricane, parrots concentrated their activities in areas of tall broadleaf forest and abandoned conucos. Topographic relief, primarily in the form of large sinkholes, resulted in "resource refugia" where parrots and other frugivores foraged after the hurricane. Habitat use and movement patterns exhibited by released birds highlight the importance of carefully considering effects of season, topography, and overall size of release areas when planning psittacine restorations in hurricane-prone areas. ?? The Neotropical Ornithological Society.

DIFFUSION IN THE VICINITY OF STANDARD-DESIGN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS-I. WIND-TUNNEL EVALUATION OF DIFFUSIVE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SIMULATED SUBURBAN NEUTRAL ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER

EPA Science Inventory

A large meteorological wind tunnel was used to simulate a suburban atmospheric boundary layer. The model-prototype scale was 1:300 and the roughness length was approximately 1.0 m full scale. The model boundary layer simulated full scale dispersion from ground-level and elevated ...

Storm severity detection (RF)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, R. L.; Smith, G. A.; Goodman, S. J.

1984-01-01

Measurement of lightning location data which occur together with continental thunderstorms and hurricanes was examined, and a second phase linear interferometer was deployed. Electrical emission originating from tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico were monitored. The time span between hurricane ALLEN (10 August 1980) and hurricane ALICIA (18 August 1983) represents the longest period that the United States has gone without hurricane landfall. Both systems were active and data were acquired during the landfall period of hurricane ALICIA.

GFDL's unified regional-global weather-climate modeling system with variable resolution capability for severe weather predictions and regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, S. J.

2015-12-01

The NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions (e.g., tornado outbreak events and cat-5 hurricanes) and ultra-high-resolution (1-km) regional climate simulations within a consistent global modeling framework. The fundation of this flexible regional-global modeling system is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Weather Review) known in the community as FV3 (finite-volume on the cubed-sphere). Because of its flexability and computational efficiency, the FV3 is one of the final candidates of NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched (single) grid capability, a two-way (regional-global) multiple nested grid capability, and the combination of the stretched and two-way nests, so as to make convection-resolving regional climate simulation within a consistent global modeling system feasible using today's High Performance Computing System. One of our main scientific goals is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornadoes using a global model that was originally designed for century long climate simulations. As a unified weather-climate modeling system, we evaluated the performance of the model with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km to as low as 200 km. In particular, for downscaling studies, we have developed various tests to ensure that the large-scale circulation within the global varaible resolution system is well simulated while at the same time the small-scale can be accurately captured within the targeted high resolution region.

Hurricane Patricia

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Composite image of category 5 Hurricane Patricia, off the Pacific coast of Mexico, from 06:00 UTC on Friday, 23 October 2015. At 8 a.m. EDT on October 23, 2015, the National Hurricane Center said that Hurricane Patricia had grown into a monster hurricane. In fact, it is the strongest eastern north pacific hurricane on record. At 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC) on Oct. 23, the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 105.6 West. That's about 145 miles (235 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 215 miles (345 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Patricia was moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 kph) and a turn toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast this afternoon. On the forecast track, the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area today, October 23, 2015 during the afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 200 mph (325 kph) with higher gusts. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 880 millibars. Copyright: 2015 EUMETSAT. Infrared data from the geostationary satellites of EUMETSAT and NOAA overlays a computer-generated model of the Earth, containing NASA's Blue Marble Next Generation imagery NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Hurricane Patricia

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

This full-disk image from NOAA’s GOES-13 satellite was captured at 14:45 UTC (10:45 a.m. EDT) and shows Hurricane Patricia off the coast of Mexico on September 23, 2015. At 8 a.m. EDT on October 23, 2015, the National Hurricane Center said that Hurricane Patricia had grown into a monster hurricane. In fact, it is the strongest eastern north pacific hurricane on record. At 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC) on Oct. 23, the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 105.6 West. That's about 145 miles (235 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 215 miles (345 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Patricia was moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 kph) and a turn toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast this afternoon. On the forecast track, the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area today, October 23, 2015 during the afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 200 mph (325 kph) with higher gusts. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 880 millibars. NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

76 FR 30491 - National Hurricane Preparedness Week, 2011

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-25

... Hurricane Preparedness Week, 2011 Proclamation 8680--National Safe Boating Week, 2011 Proclamation 8681... Hurricane Preparedness Week, 2011 By the President of the United States of America A Proclamation National Hurricane Preparedness Week highlights the importance of planning ahead to protect our families and secure...

Hurricane Lilli

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2014-05-15

article title:  Hurricane Lili Heads for Louisiana Landfall     ... Image Characteristics of a strengthening Category 3 Hurricane Lili are apparent in these images from the Multi-angle Imaging ... (MISR), including a well-developed clearing at the hurricane eye. When these views were acquired on October 2, 2002, Lili was ...

75 FR 53352 - Draft Regulatory Guide: Issuance, Availability

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-31

... Guide, DG-1247, ``Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants.'' FOR FURTHER...'s ``Regulatory Guide'' series. This series was developed to describe and make available to the.... The draft regulatory guide (DG), entitled, ``Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear...

Evaluating the Potential Usefulness of new Hurricane Indices for Emergency Management and Other Decision Makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, M. R.; Clayson, C. A.

2006-12-01

Over the past 35 years, the Saffir-Simpson scale has used wind speed as a means for categorizing damage and surge risks associated with hurricanes. Time has shown, however, that hurricanes with the same wind speed do not necessarily cause equal damage values and storm-surge heights. Therefore, it is prudent to now consider a different method for categorizing storms so that emergency management officials in a coastal location can have a better idea as to the potential hazards posed by a particular hurricane. Recognizing this need, three new indices were developed by Lakshmi Kantha in 2005 for evaluating hurricane intensity, hurricane damage potential, and hurricane surge potential. This paper applies these indices to a twenty-year database (1986-2005) of Atlantic, U.S.-landfalling hurricanes and compares the relative indices to known damage estimates and surge heights. Some general conclusions will be made regarding the possible usefulness of these indices for emergency management officials in areas prone to landfalling tropical cyclones.

News, social capital and health in the context of Katrina.

PubMed

Beaudoin, Christopher E

2007-05-01

This study assesses the public health functions played by news information and social capital in the context of Hurricane Katrina. In-depth interviews were conducted with 57 hurricane shelter residents between 4 and 6 weeks after the hurricane. Depression was more common for participants who relied more on news information than for other participants after the hurricane (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 5.49; 95% CI, 1.29 to 23.35; p=.021). Depression was more common for participants with relatively low levels of pre-hurricane positive social interactions (AOR, .16; 95% CI, .02 to 1.83; p=.046) and post-hurricane positive social interactions (AOR, .02; 95% CI, .00 to .74; p=.033) and high levels of post-hurricane negative social interactions (AOR, 17.05; 95% CI, .92 to 315.64; p=.047). Illness and injury were more common for participants who had relied more on news information than for other participants after the hurricane (AOR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.77; p=.046).

Past, Present, and Future Sea Level Change Assessments of Storm Surge: A Case Study Using Hurricane Katrina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hagen, S. C.

2012-12-01

Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclonic conditions. Further, it is generally agreed that global sea levels due to climate change will rise anywhere from 18 to 100 cm by the year 2100 (Donoghue, 2011, IPCC, 2007) with some projecting even higher. Further, it is recognized that coastal Mississippi is highly susceptible to a retreating shoreline from sea level rise coupled with predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms from an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) (Trenberth, 2005, Webster, et al., 2005). A fully-validated, state-of-the-art ADCIRC+UnSWAN hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past and future sea level changes were simulated. A regression was performed at local tide gauges to estimate past and project future sea levels. Also, surface roughness (i.e. Manning's n and wind reduction factors) was adjusted to reflect past landcover conditions as well as estimate future landcover change. Here, past, present and future sea level scenarios are modeled using a dynamic approach, along with Hurricane Katrina, and compared to present dynamic responses to sea level rise. The dynamic results will be compared and contrasted with a simpler bathtub model (static) approach. It will be demonstrated that water levels do not change linearly with modeled sea level cases (i.e. a 50 cm rise in sea level will not result in an additional 50 cm of water level at a given location) and are highly variable to changes in local conditions (e.g. topography, bathymetry, and surface roughness). Further, nearshore wind-wave conditions are affected by changes in local sea level due to the changes in momentum transfer from the waves to the water column. The results will be used to gain insight into possible morphological changes given several sea level scenarios coupled with an intense tropical cyclone. References Donoghue, J. (2011). "Sea Level History of the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the near Future." Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. IPCC (2007). "The Physical Sceince Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." Climate Change 2007, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Avery, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, eds., Cambridge Univesity Press, Cambridge. Resio, D. T. (2007). "White Paper on Estimating Hurricane Inundation Probabilities." U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, 125. Trenberth, K. (2005). "Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming." Science, 308(5729), 1753-1754. Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A., and Chang, H.-R. (2005). "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment." Science, 309(5742), 1844-1846.

Using integrated modeling for generating watershed-scale dynamic flood maps for Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saksena, S.; Dey, S.; Merwade, V.; Singhofen, P. J.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey, which was categorized as a 1000-year return period event, produced unprecedented rainfall and flooding in Houston. Although the expected rainfall was forecasted much before the event, there was no way to identify which regions were at higher risk of flooding, the magnitude of flooding, and when the impacts of rainfall would be highest. The inability to predict the location, duration, and depth of flooding created uncertainty over evacuation planning and preparation. This catastrophic event highlighted that the conventional approach to managing flood risk using 100-year static flood inundation maps is inadequate because of its inability to predict flood duration and extents for 500-year or 1000-year return period events in real-time. The purpose of this study is to create models that can dynamically predict the impacts of rainfall and subsequent flooding, so that necessary evacuation and rescue efforts can be planned in advance. This study uses a 2D integrated surface water-groundwater model called ICPR (Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing) to simulate both the hydrology and hydrodynamics for Hurricane Harvey. The methodology involves using the NHD stream network to create a 2D model that incorporates rainfall, land use, vadose zone properties and topography to estimate streamflow and generate dynamic flood depths and extents. The results show that dynamic flood mapping captures the flood hydrodynamics more accurately and is able to predict the magnitude, extent and time of occurrence for extreme events such as Hurricane Harvey. Therefore, integrated modeling has the potential to identify regions that are more susceptible to flooding, which is especially useful for large-scale planning and allocation of resources for protection against future flood risk.

Current-wave spectra coupling project. Volume I. Hurricane fields and cross sections, surface winds and currents, significant waves and wave spectra for potential OTEC sites: (A) Keahole Point, Hawaii, 100 year hurricane; (B) Punta Tuna, Puerto Rico, 100 year hurricane; (C) New Orleans, Louisiana, 100 year hurricane; (D) West Coast of Florida, 100 year hurricane; and for (E) Hurricane Camille (1969) off Louisiana Coast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bretschneider, C.L.

1980-06-01

This volume is an extension of and consists of several modifications to the earlier report by Bretschneider (April 1979) on the subject of hurricane design wind, wave and current criteria for the four potential OTEC sites. The 100-year hurricane criteria for the design of OTEC plants is included. The criteria, in addition to the maximum conditions of winds, waves and surface current, include: hurricane fields for wind speed U/sub s/ and significant wave height H/sub s/; hurricane fields for modal wave period f/sub 0//sup -1/ and maximum energy density S/sub max/ of the wave spectrum; the corresponding Ekman wind-driven surfacemore » current V/sub s/; tabulated cross-sections for U/sub s/, H/sub s/, f/sub 0//sup -1/ and S/sub max/ through max U/sub s/ and through max H/sub s/ along traverses at right angles to and along traverses parallel to the forward movement of the hurricane; most probable maximum wave height and the expected corresponding wave period, based on statistical analysis of maximum wave heights from five hurricanes; design wave spectra for maximum U/sub s/ and also maximum H/sub s/, since maximum U/sub s/ and maximum H/sub s/ do not occur simultaneously; the envelope of wave spectra through maximum U/sub s/ and through maximum H/sub s/ along traverses parallel to the forward movement of the hurricane; the above same determinations for Hurricane Camille (1969) as for the four OTEC locations; and alternative methods (suggested) for obtaining design wave spectra from the joint probability distribution functions for wave height and period given by Longuet-Higgins (1975) and C.N.E.X.O. after Arhan, et al (1976).« less

Predicting the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association claim payout of commercial buildings from Hurricane Ike

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. M.; Woods, P. K.; Park, Y. J.; Son, K.

2013-08-01

Following growing public awareness of the danger from hurricanes and tremendous demands for analysis of loss, many researchers have conducted studies to develop hurricane damage analysis methods. Although researchers have identified the significant indicators, there currently is no comprehensive research for identifying the relationship among the vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and economic losses associated with individual buildings. To address this lack of research, this study will identify vulnerabilities and hurricane indicators, develop metrics to measure the influence of economic losses from hurricanes, and visualize the spatial distribution of vulnerability to evaluate overall hurricane damage. This paper has utilized the Geographic Information System to facilitate collecting and managing data, and has combined vulnerability factors to assess the financial losses suffered by Texas coastal counties. A multiple linear regression method has been applied to develop hurricane economic damage predicting models. To reflect the pecuniary loss, insured loss payment was used as the dependent variable to predict the actual financial damage. Geographical vulnerability indicators, built environment vulnerability indicators, and hurricane indicators were all used as independent variables. Accordingly, the models and findings may possibly provide vital references for government agencies, emergency planners, and insurance companies hoping to predict hurricane damage.

Predicting the trajectories and intensities of hurricanes by applying machine learning techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sujithkumar, A.; King, A. W.; Kovilakam, M.; Graves, D.

2017-12-01

The world has witnessed an escalation of devastating hurricanes and tropical cyclones over the last three decades. Hurricanes and tropical cyclones of very high magnitude will likely be even more frequent in a warmer world. Thus, precise forecasting of the track and intensity of hurricane/tropical cyclones remains one of the meteorological community's top priorities. However, comprehensive prediction of hurricane/ tropical cyclone is a difficult problem due to the many complexities of underlying physical processes with many variables and complex relations. The availability of global meteorological and hurricane/tropical storm climatological data opens new opportunities for data-driven approaches to hurricane/tropical cyclone modeling. Here we report initial results from two data-driven machine learning techniques, specifically, random forest (RF) and Bayesian learning (BL) to predict the trajectory and intensity of hurricanes and tropical cyclones. We used International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data along with weather data from NOAA in a 50 km buffer surrounding each of the reported hurricane and tropical cyclone tracts to train the model. Initial results reveal that both RF and BL are skillful in predicting storm intensity. We will also present results for the more complicated trajectory prediction.

Peer deviance, social support, and symptoms of internalizing disorders among youth exposed to Hurricane Georges.

PubMed

Rubens, Sonia L; Vernberg, Eric M; Felix, Erika D; Canino, Glorisa

2013-01-01

This study examined the influence of peers in meeting DSM-IV symptom criteria for an internalizing disorder in adolescents exposed to Hurricane Georges. Participants included a representative community sample of 905 youth (n = 476 boys) ages 11-17, residing in Puerto Rico. Data were gathered on hurricane exposure, symptoms of internalizing disorders, peer social support, peer violence, and peer substance use through in-person structured interviews with adolescents and caretakers from 1999 to 2000 in Puerto Rico, 12-27 months after Hurricane Georges. Hurricane exposure, peer violence, and peer substance use predicted whether adolescents met DSM-IV symptom criteria for a measured internalizing disorder. An interaction was found between hurricane exposure and peer violence, which indicated that hurricane exposure was significantly related to meeting DSM-IV symptom criteria for an internalizing disorder among adolescents who do not report associating with violent peers. However, for participants who reported high levels of peer violence, hurricane exposure did not convey additional risk for meeting DSM-IV symptom criteria for an internalizing disorder. With the increasing role peers play in adolescents' lives, understanding the influence of peers on the development of internalizing symptoms following hurricane exposure may assist in planning developmentally sensitive response plans.

Intense hurricane strikes in southeastern New England since A.D. 1000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, J. P.; Ettinger, R.; Cleary, P.

2001-05-01

Intense, category 3, 4, and 5 landfalling hurricanes pose a significant threat to lives and resources in coastal areas. Intense hurricane strikes also play a significant role in transporting sediments and shaping coastal landforms. Potential links between human-induced climate change and the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and the recent concentration of resources and population in areas where intense hurricanes may strike necessitate examination of decadal-to-millennial-scale variability in hurricane activity. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hurricane activity records for the western Atlantic Ocean only go back to the late 19th century. In the northeast United States historical records of hurricanes date back 370 years. We use stratigraphic evidence from coastal wetlands to extend the record of intense hurricane strikes into the prehistoric period in southeastern New England. Storm surge and wave action associated with intense storms can overtop barrier islands, remove sand and gravel from the beach and nearshore environment and deposit these sediments across the surface of coastal wetlands. In a regime of rising sea level, organic wetland sediments accumulate on top of these storm-induced deposits, preserving a record of past storms. We reconstructed storm deposition records within coastal marshes from eastern Connecticut to Cape Cod, Massachusetts. We matched these records to the historic record of storms and established the age of prehistoric storm deposits dating back about 1000 years with isotopic and stratigraphic dating techniques. The ages of storm deposits at all sites correlate to historic intense hurricane strikes. Prehistoric storm deposits can repeatedly be correlated among multiple sites and are of similar character and extent to the more recent deposits that we attribute to historic intense hurricane strikes. Therefore these older storm deposits were also likely deposited during prehistoric intense hurricanes. We documented at least eight deposits consistent with intense hurricane strikes in the last 1000 years. We identified deposits associated with historic intense hurricanes that occurred in A.D. 1954, 1938, 1869, 1815, 1638 and/or 1635. In addition we identified deposits likely associated with prehistoric intense hurricane strikes that occurred in A.D. 1400-1450, 1300-1400, and 1100-1150. These records indicate no apparent correlation between the frequency of intense hurricane landfalls in southeastern New England and the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period climate oscillations.

Advances in the U.S. Navy Non-hydrostatic Unified Model of the Atmosphere (NUMA): LES as a Stabilization Methodology for High-Order Spectral Elements in the Simulation of Deep Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marras, Simone; Giraldo, Frank

2015-04-01

The prediction of extreme weather sufficiently ahead of its occurrence impacts society as a whole and coastal communities specifically (e.g. Hurricane Sandy that impacted the eastern seaboard of the U.S. in the fall of 2012). With the final goal of solving hurricanes at very high resolution and numerical accuracy, we have been developing the Non-hydrostatic Unified Model of the Atmosphere (NUMA) to solve the Euler and Navier-Stokes equations by arbitrary high-order element-based Galerkin methods on massively parallel computers. NUMA is a unified model with respect to the following criteria: (a) it is based on unified numerics in that element-based Galerkin methods allow the user to choose between continuous (spectral elements, CG) or discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods and from a large spectrum of time integrators, (b) it is unified across scales in that it can solve flow in limited-area mode (flow in a box) or in global mode (flow on the sphere). NUMA is the dynamical core that powers the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory's next-generation global weather prediction system NEPTUNE (Navy's Environmental Prediction sysTem Utilizing the NUMA corE). Because the solution of the Euler equations by high order methods is prone to instabilities that must be damped in some way, we approach the problem of stabilization via an adaptive Large Eddy Simulation (LES) scheme meant to treat such instabilities by modeling the sub-grid scale features of the flow. The novelty of our effort lies in the extension to high order spectral elements for low Mach number stratified flows of a method that was originally designed for low order, adaptive finite elements in the high Mach number regime [1]. The Euler equations are regularized by means of a dynamically adaptive stress tensor that is proportional to the residual of the unperturbed equations. Its effect is close to none where the solution is sufficiently smooth, whereas it increases elsewhere, with a direct contribution to the stabilization of the otherwise oscillatory solution. As a first step toward the Large Eddy Simulation of a hurricane, we verify the model via a high-order and high resolution idealized simulation of deep convection on the sphere. References [1] M. Nazarov and J. Hoffman (2013) Residual-based artificial viscosity for simulation of turbulent compressible flow using adaptive finite element methods Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids, 71:339-357

Hurricane Katrina: A Teachable Moment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bertrand, Peggy

2009-01-01

This article presents suggestions for integrating the phenomenon of hurricanes into the teaching of high school fluid mechanics. Students come to understand core science concepts in the context of their impact upon both the environment and human populations. Suggestions for using information about hurricanes, particularly Hurricane Katrina, in a…

Hurricane Isabel

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-19

article title:  Aspects of Hurricane Isabel     View Larger Image Cloud-top radiance and height characteristics of Hurricane Isabel are depicted in these data products and animations from the ... Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). Isabel was upgraded to hurricane status a few hours after the top image panels in this set were ...

Hurricane Products

Science.gov Websites

HOME PAGE Image of NCEP Logo WHERE AMERICA'S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN NCEP Products Inventory Image of horizontal rule Hurricane Products Updated: 6/09/2015 Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory Hurricane Model (GHM) Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System (HWRF) * Products Information

Hurricane Katrina experience and the risk of post-traumatic stress disorder and depression among pregnant women.

PubMed

Xiong, Xu; Harville, Emily W; Mattison, Donald R; Elkind-Hirsch, Karen; Pridjian, Gabriella; Buekens, Pierre

2010-01-01

Little is known about the effects of disaster exposure and intensity on the development of mental disorders among pregnant women. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of exposure to Hurricane Katrina on mental health in pregnant women. Prospective cohort epidemiological study. Tertiary hospitals in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, U.S.A. Women who were pregnant during Hurricane Katrina or became pregnant immediately after the hurricane. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. The frequency of PTSD was higher in women with high hurricane exposure (13.8 percent) than women without high hurricane exposure (1.3 percent), with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 16.8 (95% confidence interval: 2.6-106.6) after adjustment for maternal race, age, education, smoking and alcohol use, family income, parity, and other confounders. The frequency of depression was higher in women with high hurricane exposure (32.3 percent) than women without high hurricane exposure (12.3 percent), with an aOR of 3.3 (1.6-7.1). Moreover, the risk of PTSD and depression increased with an increasing number of severe experiences of the hurricane. Pregnant women who had severe hurricane experiences were at a significantly increased risk for PTSD and depression. This information should be useful for screening pregnant women who are at higher risk of developing mental disorders after a disaster.

An immersed boundary-simplified sphere function-based gas kinetic scheme for simulation of 3D incompressible flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, L. M.; Shu, C.; Yang, W. M.; Wang, Y.; Wu, J.

2017-08-01

In this work, an immersed boundary-simplified sphere function-based gas kinetic scheme (SGKS) is presented for the simulation of 3D incompressible flows with curved and moving boundaries. At first, the SGKS [Yang et al., "A three-dimensional explicit sphere function-based gas-kinetic flux solver for simulation of inviscid compressible flows," J. Comput. Phys. 295, 322 (2015) and Yang et al., "Development of discrete gas kinetic scheme for simulation of 3D viscous incompressible and compressible flows," J. Comput. Phys. 319, 129 (2016)], which is often applied for the simulation of compressible flows, is simplified to improve the computational efficiency for the simulation of incompressible flows. In the original SGKS, the integral domain along the spherical surface for computing conservative variables and numerical fluxes is usually not symmetric at the cell interface. This leads the expression of numerical fluxes at the cell interface to be relatively complicated. For incompressible flows, the sphere at the cell interface can be approximately considered to be symmetric as shown in this work. Besides that, the energy equation is usually not needed for the simulation of incompressible isothermal flows. With all these simplifications, the simple and explicit formulations for the conservative variables and numerical fluxes at the cell interface can be obtained. Second, to effectively implement the no-slip boundary condition for fluid flow problems with complex geometry as well as moving boundary, the implicit boundary condition-enforced immersed boundary method [Wu and Shu, "Implicit velocity correction-based immersed boundary-lattice Boltzmann method and its applications," J. Comput. Phys. 228, 1963 (2009)] is introduced into the simplified SGKS. That is, the flow field is solved by the simplified SGKS without considering the presence of an immersed body and the no-slip boundary condition is implemented by the immersed boundary method. The accuracy and efficiency of the present scheme are validated by simulating the decaying vortex flow, flow past a stationary and rotating sphere, flow past a stationary torus, and flows over dragonfly flight.

Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis for State and Local Emergency Planning and Response. Operational Requirements Document

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

pro- gram requirements, and administering local and federal funding. Emergency services—organizations that provide for public safety by the...chemicals Nerve agent Chlorine tank explosion Major earthquake Major hurricane Radiological dispersal device Improvised explosive device Food ...state Locally Developed Software 1 city 1 county 1 city 1 county 3 states Lotus Notes Suite 1 NGO MABAS.ORG 1 county

Predicting posttraumatic stress symptoms in children following Hurricane Katrina: a prospective analysis of the effect of parental distress and parenting practices.

PubMed

Kelley, Mary Lou; Self-Brown, Shannon; Le, Brenda; Bosson, Julia Vigna; Hernandez, Brittany C; Gordon, Arlene T

2010-10-01

Research exhibits a robust relation between child hurricane exposure, parent distress, and child posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This study explored parenting practices that could further explicate this association. Participants were 381 mothers and their children exposed to Hurricane Katrina. It was hypothesized that 3-7 months (T1) and 14-17 months (T2) post-Katrina: (a) hurricane exposure would predict child PTSD symptoms after controlling for history of violence exposure and (b) hurricane exposure would predict parent distress and negative parenting practices, which, in turn, would predict increased child PTSD symptoms. Hypotheses were partially supported. Hurricane exposure directly predicted child PTSD at T1 and indirectly at T2. Additionally, several significant paths emerged from hurricane exposure to parent distress and parenting practices, which were predictive of child PTSD.

Examining the long-term racial disparities in health and economic conditions among Hurricane Katrina survivors: policy implications for Gulf Coast recovery.

PubMed

Toldson, Ivory A; Ray, Kilynda; Hatcher, Schnavia Smith; Louis, Laura Straughn

2011-01-01

This study examines disparities in the long-term health, emotional well-being, and economic consequences of the 2005 Gulf Coast hurricanes. Researchers analyzed the responses of 216 Black and 508 White Hurricane Katrina survivors who participated in the ABC News Hurricane Katrina Anniversary Poll in 2006. Self-reported data of the long-term negative impact of the hurricane on personal health, emotional well-being, and finances were regressed on race, income, and measures of loss, injury, family mortality, anxiety, and confidence in the government. Descriptive analyses, stepwise logistic regression, and analyses of variance revealed that Black hurricane survivors more frequently reported hurricane-related problems with personal health, emotional well-being, and finances. In addition, Blacks were more likely than Whites to report the loss of friends, relatives, and personal property.

Development of Dimensionless Surge Response Functions for Hazard Assessment at Panama City, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, N. R.; Irish, J. L.; Hagen, S. C.; Kaihatu, J. M.; McLaughlin, P. W.

2013-12-01

Reliable and robust methods of extreme value analysis in hurricane surge forecasting are of high importance in the coastal engineering profession. The Joint Probability Method (JPM) has become the preferred statistical method over the Historical Surge Population (HSP) method, due to its ability to give more accurate surge predictions, as demonstrated by Irish et. al in 2011 (J. Geophys. Res.). One disadvantage to this method is its high computational cost; a single location can require hundreds of simulated storms, each needing one thousand computational hours or more to complete. One way of overcoming this issue is to use an interpolating function, called a surge response function, to reduce the required number of simulations to a manageable number. These sampling methods, which use physical scaling laws, have been shown to significantly reduce the number of simulated storms needed for application of the JPM method. In 2008, Irish et. al. (J. Phys. Oceanogr.) demonstrated that hurricane surge scales primarily as a function of storm size and intensity. Additionally, Song et. al. in 2012 (Nat. Hazards) has shown that surge response functions incorporating bathymetric variations yield highly accurate surge estimates along the Texas coastline. This study applies the Song. et. al. model to 73 stations along the open coast, and 273 stations within the bays, in Panama City, Florida. The model performs well for the open coast and bay areas; surge levels at most stations along the open coast were predicted with RMS errors below 0.40 meters, and R2 values at or above 0.80. The R2 values for surge response functions within bays were consistently at or above 0.75. Surge levels at most stations within the North Bay and East Bay were predicted with RMS errors below 0.40 meters; within the West Bay, surge was predicted with RMS errors below 0.52 meters. Accurately interpolating surge values along the Panama City coast and bays enables efficient use of the JPM model in order to develop reliable probabilistic surge estimates for use in planning and design for hurricane mitigation.

Racial Differences in Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Vulnerability Following Hurricane Katrina Among a Sample of Adult Cigarette Smokers from New Orleans.

PubMed

Alexander, Adam C; Ali, Jeanelle; McDevitt-Murphy, Meghan E; Forde, David R; Stockton, Michelle; Read, Mary; Ward, Kenneth D

2017-02-01

Although blacks are more likely than whites to experience posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after a natural disaster, the reasons for this disparity are unclear. This study explores whether race is associated with PTSD after adjusting for differences in preexisting vulnerabilities, exposure to stressors, and loss of social support due to Hurricane Katrina using a representative sample of 279 black and white adult current and past smokers who were present when Hurricane Katrina struck, and identified it as the most traumatic event in their lifetime. Multiple logistic regression models evaluated whether differential vulnerability (pre-hurricane physical and mental health functioning, and education level), differential exposure to hurricane-related stressors, and loss of social support deterioration reduced the association of race with PTSD. Blacks were more likely than whites to screen positive for PTSD (49 vs. 39 %, respectively, p = 0.030). Although blacks reported greater pre-hurricane vulnerability (worse mental health functioning and lower educational attainment) and hurricane-related stressor exposure and had less social support after the hurricane, only pre-hurricane mental health functioning attenuated the association of race with screening positive for PTSD. Thus, racial differences in pre-hurricane functioning, particularly poorer mental health, may partially explain racial disparities in PTSD after natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina. Future studies should examine these associations prospectively using representative cohorts of black and whites and include measures of residential segregation and discrimination, which may further our understanding of racial disparities in PTSD after a natural disaster.

Racial Differences in Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Vulnerability Following Hurricane Katrina Among a Sample of Adult Ever Smokers from New Orleans

PubMed Central

Alexander, Adam C.; Ali, Jeanelle; McDevitt-Murphy, Meghan E.; Forde, David R.; Stockton, Michelle; Read, Mary; Ward, Kenneth D.

2016-01-01

Although blacks are more likely than whites to experience posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after a natural disaster, the reasons for this disparity are unclear. This study explores whether race is associated with PTSD after adjusting for differences in preexisting vulnerabilities, exposure to stressors, and loss of social support due to Hurricane Katrina using a representative sample of 279 black and white adult ever smokers who were present when Hurricane Katrina struck, and identified it as the most traumatic event in their lifetime. Multiple logistic regression models evaluated whether differential vulnerability (pre-hurricane physical and mental health functioning, and education level), differential exposure to hurricane-related stressors, and loss of social support deterioration reduced the association of race with PTSD. Blacks were more likely than whites to screen positive for PTSD (49% vs. 39% respectively, p=0.030). Although blacks reported greater pre-hurricane vulnerability (worse mental health functioning and lower educational attainment) and hurricane-related stressor exposure, and had less social support after the hurricane, only pre-hurricane mental health functioning attenuated the association of race with screening positive for PTSD. Thus, racial differences in pre-hurricane functioning, particularly poorer mental health, may partially explain racial disparities in PTSD after natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina. Future studies should examine these associations prospectively using representative cohorts of black and whites, and include measures of residential segregation and discrimination, which may further our understanding of racial disparities in PTSD after a natural disaster. PMID:26823065

Impact of hurricanes on the flux of rainwater and Cape Fear River water dissolved organic carbon to Long Bay, southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avery, G. Brooks; Kieber, Robert J.; Willey, Joan D.; Shank, G. Christopher; Whitehead, Robert F.

2004-09-01

The hurricane flux of rain and river water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to Long Bay located on the southeastern coast of the United States was determined for four hurricanes that made landfall in the Cape Fear region of North Carolina. Riverine flux of DOC following hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) represented one third and one half of the entire annual river flux of DOC to Long Bay, respectively. The majority of this DOC was recalcitrant and not available for biological consumption. The high flux of DOC from hurricane Floyd resulted from extremely high precipitation amounts (in excess of 50 cm) associated with the hurricane and subsequent flooding. High riverine DOC fluxes were observed following hurricane Fran but not hurricanes Bertha (1996) and Bonnie (1998). The westerly path of Fran deposited rain inland along the Cape Fear River watershed, causing high river flow conditions, while Bonnie and Bertha took an eastern path, resulting in a minimal effect to the Cape Fear River flow rates. The rainwater flux of total DOC to Long Bay from the four hurricanes was not as dramatic as that observed for riverine fluxes. However, unlike river water DOC that is refractory, rainwater DOC is highly labile. Rainwater from the four hurricanes in this study deposited 2-5 times the DOC deposited in an average storm. This represented a flux of 3-9% of the entire annual budget of bioavailable DOC to Long Bay being deposited over a 1 or 2 day period, likely spurring short-term secondary productivity following the hurricanes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, W.; Tuleya, R.E.; Ginis, I.

In this study, the effect of thermodynamic environmental changes on hurricane intensity is extensively investigated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model for a suite of experiments with different initial upper-tropospheric temperature anomalies up to {+-}4 C and sea surface temperatures ranging from 26 to 31 C given the same relative humidity profile. The results indicate that stabilization in the environmental atmosphere and sea surface temperature (SST) increase cause opposing effects on hurricane intensity. The offsetting relationship between the effects of atmospheric stability increase (decrease) and SST increase (decrease) is monotonic and systematic inmore » the parameter space. This implies that hurricane intensity increase due to a possible global warming associated with increased CO{sub 2} is considerably smaller than that expected from warming of the oceanic waters alone. The results also indicate that the intensity of stronger (weaker) hurricanes is more (less) sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes. The model-attained hurricane intensity is found to be well correlated with the maximum surface evaporation and the large-scale environmental convective available potential energy. The model-attained hurricane intensity if highly correlated with the energy available from wet-adiabatic ascent near the eyewall relative to a reference sounding in the undisturbed environment for all the experiments. Coupled hurricane-ocean experiments show that hurricane intensity becomes less sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes since the ocean coupling causes larger (smaller) intensity reduction for stronger (weaker) hurricanes. This implies less increase of hurricane intensity related to a possible global warming due to increased CO{sub 2}.« less

Hurricanes 2004: An overview of their characteristics and coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sallenger, Asbury H.; Stockdon, Hilary; Fauver, Laura A.; Hansen, Mark; Thompson, David; Wright, C. Wayne; Lillycrop, Jeff

2006-01-01

Four hurricanes battered the state of Florida during 2004, the most affecting any state since Texas endured four in 1884. Each of the storms changed the coast differently. Average shoreline change within the right front quadrant of hurricane force winds varied from 1 m of shoreline advance to 20 m of retreat, whereas average sand volume change varied from 11 to 66 m3 m−1 of net loss (erosion). These changes did not scale simply with hurricane intensity as described by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The strongest storm of the season, category 4 Hurricane Charley, had the least shoreline retreat. This was likely because of other factors like the storm's rapid forward speed and small size that generated a lower storm surge than expected. Two of the storms, Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne, affected nearly the same area on the Florida east coast just 3 wk apart. The first storm, Frances, although weaker than the second, caused greater shoreline retreat and sand volume erosion. As a consequence, Hurricane Frances may have stripped away protective beach and exposed dunes to direct wave attack during Jeanne, although there was significant dune erosion during both storms. The maximum shoreline change for all four hurricanes occurred during Ivan on the coasts of eastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The net volume change across a barrier island within the Ivan impact zone approached zero because of massive overwash that approximately balanced erosion of the beach. These data from the 2004 hurricane season will prove useful in developing new ways to scale and predict coastal-change effects during hurricanes.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center - Honolulu, Hawai`i

Science.gov Websites

Department of Commerce Central Pacific Hurricane Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Blank Tracking Maps ▾ Educational Resources Be Prepared! NWS Hurricane Prep Week Preparedness Weather Hurricane Season Outlook for 2018 2017-18 Hawaii Wet Season Summary and 2018 Dry Season Outlook USGS and

Central Pacific Hurricane Center - Honolulu, Hawai`i

Science.gov Websites

Department of Commerce Central Pacific Hurricane Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Blank Tracking Maps ▾ Educational Resources Be Prepared! NWS Hurricane Prep Week Preparedness Weather Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM HST Thu Nov 30 2017 For the central North Pacific

76 FR 17867 - Agency Forms Undergoing Paperwork Reduction Act Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-31

.... Proposed Project Registration of Individuals Displaced by the Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (Pilot Project... and Brief Description On August 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina made landfall on the coast of the Gulf of.... history. Also occurring in 2005, Hurricane Rita was the fourth-most intense Atlantic hurricane ever...

78 FR 49950 - Dispute Resolution Pilot Program for Public Assistance Appeals

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-16

... Public Assistance Determinations Related to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (Disasters DR-1603, DR-1604, DR... between the Hurricanes Katrina and Rita arbitration process and the DRPP include, but are not limited to: (1) The Hurricanes Katrina and Rita arbitration process is limited to just Hurricanes Katrina and...

Community College Re-Enrollment after Hurricane Katrina

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lowe, Sarah R.; Rhodes, Jean E.

2013-01-01

In this study, we explored predictors of community college re-enrollment after Hurricane Katrina among a sample of low-income women (N = 221). It was predicted that participants' pre-hurricane educational optimism would predict community college re-enrollment a year after the hurricane. The influence of various demographic and additional resources…

Sediment Quality in Near Coastal Waters of the Gulf of Mexico: Influence of Hurricane Katrina

EPA Science Inventory

The results from this study represent a synoptic analysis of sediment quality in coastal waters of Lake Pontchartrain and Mississippi Sound two months after the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. Post-hurricane conditions were compared to pre-hurricane (2000-2004) conditions, for se...

77 FR 32877 - National Hurricane Preparedness Week, 2012

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-01

... Hurricane Preparedness Week, 2012 By the President of the United States of America A Proclamation Every year... tornadoes. During National Hurricane Preparedness Week, we rededicate ourselves to preventing loss of life... informed public. This week, I encourage all Americans living in areas that could be impacted by a hurricane...

7 CFR 1410.12 - Emergency Forestry Program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... damage from hurricanes in calendar year 2005 may be enrolled through the Emergency Forestry Conservation... hurricane-affected county due to 2005 hurricanes. (c) The provisions of § 1410.4 do not apply to this... practicable, native species or similar species as existing prior to hurricane damages as may be specified in...

7 CFR 701.150 - 2005 hurricanes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 7 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false 2005 hurricanes. 701.150 Section 701.150 Agriculture... 2005 hurricanes. In addition benefits elsewhere allowed by this part, claims related to calendar year 2005 hurricane losses may be allowed to the extent provided for in §§ 701.150 through 701.157. Such...

7 CFR 1410.12 - Emergency Forestry Program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... damage from hurricanes in calendar year 2005 may be enrolled through the Emergency Forestry Conservation... hurricane-affected county due to 2005 hurricanes. (c) The provisions of § 1410.4 do not apply to this... practicable, native species or similar species as existing prior to hurricane damages as may be specified in...

7 CFR 1410.12 - Emergency Forestry Program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... damage from hurricanes in calendar year 2005 may be enrolled through the Emergency Forestry Conservation... hurricane-affected county due to 2005 hurricanes. (c) The provisions of § 1410.4 do not apply to this... practicable, native species or similar species as existing prior to hurricane damages as may be specified in...

7 CFR 701.150 - 2005 hurricanes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 7 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false 2005 hurricanes. 701.150 Section 701.150 Agriculture... 2005 hurricanes. In addition benefits elsewhere allowed by this part, claims related to calendar year 2005 hurricane losses may be allowed to the extent provided for in §§ 701.150 through 701.157. Such...

7 CFR 701.150 - 2005 hurricanes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 7 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false 2005 hurricanes. 701.150 Section 701.150 Agriculture... 2005 hurricanes. In addition benefits elsewhere allowed by this part, claims related to calendar year 2005 hurricane losses may be allowed to the extent provided for in §§ 701.150 through 701.157. Such...

7 CFR 701.150 - 2005 hurricanes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false 2005 hurricanes. 701.150 Section 701.150 Agriculture... 2005 hurricanes. In addition benefits elsewhere allowed by this part, claims related to calendar year 2005 hurricane losses may be allowed to the extent provided for in §§ 701.150 through 701.157. Such...

Central Pacific Hurricane Center - Honolulu, Hawai`i

Science.gov Websites

distance between lat/lon points Saffir-Simpson Scale Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt) Category 1 Research and Development NOAA Hurricane Research Division Joint Hurricane Testbed Hurricane Forecast WFO Honolulu Weather Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Local Forecast

A finite-difference time-domain electromagnetic solver in a generalized coordinate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hochberg, Timothy Allen

A new, finite-difference, time-domain method for the simulation of full-wave electromagnetic wave propogation in complex structures is developed. This method is simple and flexible; it allows for the simulation of transient wave propogation in a large class of practical structures. Boundary conditions are implemented for perfect and imperfect electrically conducting boundaries, perfect magnetically conducting boundaries, and absorbing boundaries. The method is validated with the aid of several different types of test cases. Two types of coaxial cables with helical breaks are simulated and the results are discussed.

Hurricane Hortense: impact on surface water in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torres-Sierra, Heriberto

1997-01-01

Late Monday night, September 9, and into the early morning hours of Tuesday, September 10, 1996, Hurricane Hortense passed over the southwestern part of Puerto Rico (inset). Hurricane Hortense made landfall as a Category One Hurricane (74 to 95 miles per hour) on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, with maximum sustained winds of nearly 80 miles per hour. The eye of Hurricane Hortense moved over the towns of Guayanilla, Yauco, Guánica, Lajas, San Germán, Cabo Rojo, Hormigueros, and Mayagüez (fig. 1).

An Estimation of Turbulent Characteristics in the Low-Level Region of Intense Hurricanes Allen (1980) and Hugo (1989)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-01

An Estimation of Turbulent Characteristics in the Low-Level Region of Intense Hurricanes Allen (1980) and Hugo (1989) JUN A. ZHANG Rosenstiel School...aircraft that penetrated the eyewalls of category 5 Hurricane Hugo (1989) and category 4 Hurricane Allen (1980) between 1 km and the sea surface...to 00-00-2010 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE An Estimation of Turbulent Characteristics in the Low-Level Region of Intense Hurricanes Allen (1980) and Hugo

Real-Time Upper-Ocean Temperature Observations from Aircraft during Operational Hurricane Reconnaissance Missions: AXBT Demonstration Project Year One Results

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

Demonstration Project beginning in the 2011 North Atlantic hurricane season (WG/HWSOR 2011). The primary objectives of the first year of the demon- stration...after Atlantic hurricanes from WP-3D hur- ricane research flights conducted jointly by the NOAA AircraftOperationsCenter (AOC), theNOAA/Hurricane... Atlantic hurricane season; 3) to present an initial set of results from the inclusion of AXBT data in both statistical and dynamical numerical prediction