Sample records for simulated net carbon
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Simulating forest productivity and surface-atmosphere carbon exchange in the BOREAS study region.
Kimball, John S.; Thornton, Peter E.; White, Mike A.; Running, Steven W.
1997-01-01
A process-based, general ecosystem model (BIOME-BGC) was used to simulate daily gross primary production, maintenance and heterotrophic respiration, net primary production and net ecosystem carbon exchange of boreal aspen, jack pine and black spruce stands. Model simulations of daily net carbon exchange of the ecosystem (NEE) explained 51.7% (SE = 1.32 g C m(-2) day(-1)) of the variance in daily NEE derived from stand eddy flux measurements of CO(2) during 1994. Differences between measured and simulated results were attributed to several factors including difficulties associated with measuring nighttime CO(2) fluxes and model assumptions of site homogeneity. However, comparisons between simulations and field data improved markedly at coarser time-scales. Model simulations explained 66.1% (SE = 0.97 g C m(-2) day(-1)) of the variance in measured NEE when 5-day means of daily results were compared. Annual simulations of aboveground net primary production ranged from 0.6-2.4 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) and were concurrent with results derived from tree increment core measurements and allometric equations. Model simulations showed that all of the sites were net sinks (0.1-4.1 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1)) of atmospheric carbon for 1994. Older conifer stands showed narrow margins between uptake of carbon by net photosynthesis and carbon release through respiration. Younger stands were more productive than older stands, primarily because of lower maintenance respiration costs. However, all sites appeared to be less productive than temperate forests. Productivity simulations were strongly linked to stand morphology and site conditions. Old jack pine and aspen stands showed decreased productivity in response to simulated low soil water contents near the end of the 1994 growing season. Compared with the aspen stand, the jack pine stand appeared better adapted to conserve soil water through lower daily evapotranspiration losses but also exhibited a narrower margin between daily net photosynthesis and respiration. Stands subjected to water stress during the growing season may exist on the edge between being annual sources or sinks for atmospheric carbon.
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Simulating crop phenology in the Community Land Model and its impact on energy and carbon fluxes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Ming; Griffis, Tim J.; Baker, John; Wood, Jeffrey D.; Xiao, Ke
2015-02-01
A reasonable representation of crop phenology and biophysical processes in land surface models is necessary to accurately simulate energy, water, and carbon budgets at the field, regional, and global scales. However, the evaluation of crop models that can be coupled to Earth system models is relatively rare. Here we evaluated two such models (CLM4-Crop and CLM3.5-CornSoy), both implemented within the Community Land Model (CLM) framework, at two AmeriFlux corn-soybean sites to assess their ability to simulate phenology, energy, and carbon fluxes. Our results indicated that the accuracy of net ecosystem exchange and gross primary production simulations was intimately connected to the phenology simulations. The CLM4-Crop model consistently overestimated early growing season leaf area index, causing an overestimation of gross primary production, to such an extent that the model simulated a carbon sink instead of the measured carbon source for corn. The CLM3.5-CornSoy-simulated leaf area index (LAI), energy, and carbon fluxes showed stronger correlations with observations compared to CLM4-Crop. Net radiation was biased high in both models and was especially pronounced for soybeans. This was primarily caused by the positive LAI bias, which led to a positive net long-wave radiation bias. CLM4-Crop underestimated soil water content during midgrowing season in all soil layers at the two sites, which caused unrealistic water stress, especially for soybean. Future work regarding the mechanisms that drive early growing season phenology and soil water dynamics is needed to better represent crops including their net radiation balance, energy partitioning, and carbon cycle processes.
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BOREAS TE-19 Ecosystem Carbon Balance Model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hall, Forrest G. (Editor); Papagno, Andrea (Editor); Frolking, Steve
2000-01-01
The BOREAS TE-19 team developed a model called the Spruce and Moss Model (SPAM) designed to simulate the daily carbon balance of a black spruce/moss boreal forest ecosystem. It is driven by daily weather conditions, and consists of four components: (1) soil climate, (2) tree photosynthesis and respiration, (3) moss photosynthesis and respiration, and (4) litter decomposition and associated heterotrophic respiration. The model simulates tree gross and net photosynthesis, wood respiration, live root respiration, moss gross and net photosynthesis, and heterotrophic respiration (decomposition of root litter, young needle and moss litter, and humus). These values can be combined to generate predictions of total site net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE), total soil dark respiration (live roots + heterotrophs + live moss), spruce and moss net productivity, and net carbon accumulation in the soil. To date, simulations have been of the BOREAS NSA-OBS and SSA-OBS tower sites, from 1968-95 (except 1990-93). The files include source code and sample input and output files in ASCII format. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884), or from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Activity Archive Center (DAAC).
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BOREAS RSS-8 BIOME-BGC Model Simulations at Tower Flux Sites in 1994
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hall, Forrest G. (Editor); Nickeson, Jaime (Editor); Kimball, John
2000-01-01
BIOME-BGC is a general ecosystem process model designed to simulate biogeochemical and hydrologic processes across multiple scales (Running and Hunt, 1993). In this investigation, BIOME-BGC was used to estimate daily water and carbon budgets for the BOREAS tower flux sites for 1994. Carbon variables estimated by the model include gross primary production (i.e., net photosynthesis), maintenance and heterotrophic respiration, net primary production, and net ecosystem carbon exchange. Hydrologic variables estimated by the model include snowcover, evaporation, transpiration, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and outflow. The information provided by the investigation includes input initialization and model output files for various sites in tabular ASCII format.
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Moinet, Gabriel Y K; Cieraad, Ellen; Turnbull, Matthew H; Whitehead, David
2017-02-01
The ability to quantify the impacts of changing management practices on the components of net ecosystem carbon balance (N B ) is required to forecast future changes in soil carbon stocks and potential feedbacks on atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. In this study we investigated seasonal changes on the components of net ecosystem carbon balance resulting from the application of irrigation and nitrogen fertiliser to a temperate grassland in New Zealand where we simulated grazing events. We made seasonal measurements of the components of N B using chamber measurements in field plots with and without irrigation and addition of nitrogen fertiliser. We developed models to determine the physiological responses of gross canopy photosynthesis (A), leaf respiration (R L ) and soil respiration (R S ) to soil and air temperature, soil water content and irradiance and we estimated annual N B for the first year after treatments were applied. Overall, irrigation and nitrogen addition had a synergistic effect to increase annual estimates of above-ground components of carbon balance (A, R L and carbon exported through simulated grazing, F export ), but there was no effect from adding nitrogen alone. Annual R S remained unchanged between treatments. The treatments resulted in increases in above-ground biomass production, but, with the high intensity of simulated grazing, these were not sufficient to offset ecosystem carbon losses, so all treatments remained a net source of carbon. There were no significant differences between treatments and annual N B ranged from -540gCm -2 y -1 for the treatment with no irrigation and no nitrogen addition and -284gCm -2 y -1 for the treatment with irrigation and nitrogen addition. Our findings from the first year of the treatments quantify the net benefits of addition of irrigation and nitrogen on increasing above-ground production for animal feed but show that this did not lead to a net increase carbon input to the soil. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gao, Z.; Gao, W.; Chang, N.-B.
2010-07-01
In China, cumulative changes in climate and land use/land cover (LULC) from 1981 to 2000 had collectively affected the net productivity in the terrestrial ecosystem and thus the net carbon flux, both of which are intimately linked with the global carbon cycle. This paper represents the first national effort of its kind to systematically investigate the impact of changes of LULC on carbon cycle with high-resolution dynamic LULC data at the decadal scale (1990s and 2000s). The CEVSA was applied and driven by high resolution LULC data retrieved from remote sensing and climate data collected from two ground-based meteorological stations. In particular, it allowed us to simulate carbon fluxes (net primary productivity (NPP), vegetation carbon (VEGC) storage, soil carbon (SOC) storage, heterotrophic respiration (HR), and net ecosystem productivity (NEP)) and carbon storage from 1981 to 2000. Simulations generally agree with output from other models and results from bookkeeping approach. Based on these simulations, temporal and spatial variations in carbon storage and fluxes in China may be confirmed and we are able to relate these variations to climate variability during this period for detailed analyses to show influences of the LULC and environmental controls on NPP, NEP, HR, SOC, and VEGC. Overall, the increases in NPP were greater than HR in most of the time due to the effect of global warming with more precipitation in China from 1981 to 2000. With this trend, the NEP remained positive during that period, resulting in the net increase of total amount of carbon being stored by about 0.296 Pg C within the 20-years time frame. Because the climate effect was much greater than that of changes of LULC, the total carbon storage in China actually increased by about 0.17 Pg C within the 20 years. Such findings will contribute to the generation of control policies of carbon emissions under global climate change.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, R.; Arora, V. K.
2012-01-01
Energy and carbon balance implications of representing vegetation using a composite or mosaic approach in a land surface scheme are investigated. In the composite approach the attributes of different plant functional types (PFTs) present in a grid cell are aggregated in some fashion for energy and water balance calculations. The resulting physical environmental conditions (including net radiation, soil moisture and soil temperature) are common to all PFTs and affect their ecosystem processes. In the mosaic approach energy and water balance calculations are performed separately for each PFT tile using its own vegetation attributes, so each PFT "sees" different physical environmental conditions and its carbon balance evolves somewhat differently from that in the composite approach. Simulations are performed at selected boreal, temperate and tropical locations to illustrate the differences caused by using the composite versus mosaic approaches of representing vegetation. These idealized simulations use 50% fractional coverage for each of the two dominant PFTs in a grid cell. Differences in simulated grid averaged primary energy fluxes at selected sites are generally less than 5% between the two approaches. Simulated grid-averaged carbon fluxes and pool sizes at these sites can, however, differ by as much as 46%. Simulation results suggest that differences in carbon balance between the two approaches arise primarily through differences in net radiation which directly affects net primary productivity, and thus leaf area index and vegetation biomass.
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Disturbance and climate effects on carbon stocks and fluxes across western Oregon USA.
B.E. Law; D. Turner; J. Campbell; O.J. Sun; S. Van Tuyl; W.D. Ritts; W.B. Cohen
2004-01-01
We used a spatially nested hierarchy of field and remote-sensing observations and a process model, Biome-BGC, to produce a carbon budget for the forested region of Oregon, and to determine the relative influence of differences in climate and disturbance among the ecoregions on carbon stocks and fluxes. The simulations suggest that annual net uptake (net ecosystem...
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Baseline and Projected Future Carbon Stocks and Fluxes in the Hawaiian Islands
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Selmants, P. C.; Sleeter, B. M.; Giardina, C. P.; Zhu, Z.; Asner, G. P.
2016-12-01
Hawaii is characterized by steep climatic gradients and heterogeneous land cover within a small geographic area, presenting a model tropical system to capture ecosystem carbon dynamics across a wide range of climate, soil, and land use conditions. However, ecosystem carbon balance is poorly understood on a statewide level, and the potential for climate and land use change to affect carbon dynamics in Hawaii has not been formally assessed. We estimated current baseline and projected future ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes on the seven main Hawaiian Islands using a combination of remote sensing, published plot-level data, and simulation modeling. Total ecosystem carbon storage during the baseline period was estimated at 258 TgC, with 70% stored as soil organic carbon, 25% as live biomass and 5% as surface detritus, and gross primary production was estimated at 20 TgC y-1. Net ecosystem carbon balance, which incorporated carbon losses from freshwater aquatic fluxes to nearshore waters and wildland fire emissions, was estimated as 0.34 TgC y-1 during the baseline period, offsetting 7% of anthropogenic emissions. We used a state and transition simulation model to estimate the response of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes to potential changes in climate, land use, and wildfire over a 50-year projection period (2012-2061). Total ecosystem carbon storage was projected to increase by 5% by the year 2061, but net ecosystem carbon balance was projected to decline by 35% due to climate change induced reductions in statewide net primary production and increased carbon losses from land use and land cover change. Our analysis indicates that the State of Hawaii would remain a net carbon sink overall, primarily because of ecosystem carbon sequestration on Hawaii Island, but predicted changes in climate and land use on Kauai and Oahu would convert these islands to net carbon sources. The Hawaii carbon assessment is part of a larger effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess the carbon sequestration potential of ecosystems across the United States and should provide valuable information for setting research and policy priorities for sustainable carbon management strategies aimed at offsetting anthropogenic carbon emissions.
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A carbon balance model for the great dismal swamp ecosystem
Sleeter, Rachel; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Williams, Brianna; Hogan, Dianna; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhu, Zhiliang
2017-01-01
BackgroundCarbon storage potential has become an important consideration for land management and planning in the United States. The ability to assess ecosystem carbon balance can help land managers understand the benefits and tradeoffs between different management strategies. This paper demonstrates an application of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model developed for local-scale land management at the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge. We estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance by considering past ecosystem disturbances resulting from storm damage, fire, and land management actions including hydrologic inundation, vegetation clearing, and replanting.ResultsWe modeled the annual ecosystem carbon stock and flow rates for the 30-year historic time period of 1985–2015, using age-structured forest growth curves and known data for disturbance events and management activities. The 30-year total net ecosystem production was estimated to be a net sink of 0.97 Tg C. When a hurricane and six historic fire events were considered in the simulation, the Great Dismal Swamp became a net source of 0.89 Tg C. The cumulative above and below-ground carbon loss estimated from the South One and Lateral West fire events totaled 1.70 Tg C, while management activities removed an additional 0.01 Tg C. The carbon loss in below-ground biomass alone totaled 1.38 Tg C, with the balance (0.31 Tg C) coming from above-ground biomass and detritus.ConclusionsNatural disturbances substantially impact net ecosystem carbon balance in the Great Dismal Swamp. Through alternative management actions such as re-wetting, below-ground biomass loss may have been avoided, resulting in the added carbon storage capacity of 1.38 Tg. Based on two model assumptions used to simulate the peat system, (a burn scar totaling 70 cm in depth, and the soil carbon accumulation rate of 0.36 t C/ha−1/year−1 for Atlantic white cedar), the total soil carbon loss from the South One and Lateral West fires would take approximately 1740 years to re-amass. Due to the impractical time horizon this presents for land managers, this particular loss is considered permanent. Going forward, the baseline carbon stock and flow parameters presented here will be used as reference conditions to model future scenarios of land management and disturbance.
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A carbon balance model for the great dismal swamp ecosystem.
Sleeter, Rachel; Sleeter, Benjamin M; Williams, Brianna; Hogan, Dianna; Hawbaker, Todd; Zhu, Zhiliang
2017-12-01
Carbon storage potential has become an important consideration for land management and planning in the United States. The ability to assess ecosystem carbon balance can help land managers understand the benefits and tradeoffs between different management strategies. This paper demonstrates an application of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model developed for local-scale land management at the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge. We estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance by considering past ecosystem disturbances resulting from storm damage, fire, and land management actions including hydrologic inundation, vegetation clearing, and replanting. We modeled the annual ecosystem carbon stock and flow rates for the 30-year historic time period of 1985-2015, using age-structured forest growth curves and known data for disturbance events and management activities. The 30-year total net ecosystem production was estimated to be a net sink of 0.97 Tg C. When a hurricane and six historic fire events were considered in the simulation, the Great Dismal Swamp became a net source of 0.89 Tg C. The cumulative above and below-ground carbon loss estimated from the South One and Lateral West fire events totaled 1.70 Tg C, while management activities removed an additional 0.01 Tg C. The carbon loss in below-ground biomass alone totaled 1.38 Tg C, with the balance (0.31 Tg C) coming from above-ground biomass and detritus. Natural disturbances substantially impact net ecosystem carbon balance in the Great Dismal Swamp. Through alternative management actions such as re-wetting, below-ground biomass loss may have been avoided, resulting in the added carbon storage capacity of 1.38 Tg. Based on two model assumptions used to simulate the peat system, (a burn scar totaling 70 cm in depth, and the soil carbon accumulation rate of 0.36 t C/ha -1 /year -1 for Atlantic white cedar), the total soil carbon loss from the South One and Lateral West fires would take approximately 1740 years to re-amass. Due to the impractical time horizon this presents for land managers, this particular loss is considered permanent. Going forward, the baseline carbon stock and flow parameters presented here will be used as reference conditions to model future scenarios of land management and disturbance.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, R.; Arora, V. K.
2011-06-01
Energy and carbon balance implications of representing vegetation using a composite or mosaic approach in a land surface scheme are investigated. In the composite approach the attributes of different plant functional types (PFTs) present in a grid cell are aggregated in some fashion for energy and water balance calculations. The resulting physical environmental conditions (including net radiation, soil moisture and soil temperature) are common to all PFTs and affect their ecosystem processes. In the mosaic approach energy and water balance calculations are performed separately for each PFT tile using its own vegetation attributes, so each PFT "sees" different physical environmental conditions and its carbon balance evolves somewhat differently from that in the composite approach. Simulations are performed at selected boreal, temperate and tropical locations to illustrate the differences caused by using the composite versus the mosaic approaches of representing vegetation. Differences in grid averaged primary energy fluxes are generally less than 5 % between the two approaches. Grid-averaged carbon fluxes and pool sizes can, however, differ by as much as 46 %. Simulation results suggest that differences in carbon balance between the two approaches arise primarily through differences in net radiation which directly affects net primary productivity, and thus leaf area index and vegetation biomass.
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Soil and vegetation parameter uncertainty on future terrestrial carbon sinks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kothavala, Z.; Felzer, B. S.
2013-12-01
We examine the role of the terrestrial carbon cycle in a changing climate at the centennial scale using an intermediate complexity Earth system climate model that includes the effects of dynamic vegetation and the global carbon cycle. We present a series of ensemble simulations to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated terrestrial carbon sinks to three key model parameters: (a) The temperature dependence of soil carbon decomposition, (b) the upper temperature limits on the rate of photosynthesis, and (c) the nitrogen limitation of the maximum rate of carboxylation of Rubisco. We integrated the model in fully coupled mode for a 1200-year spin-up period, followed by a 300-year transient simulation starting at year 1800. Ensemble simulations were conducted varying each parameter individually and in combination with other variables. The results of the transient simulations show that terrestrial carbon uptake is very sensitive to the choice of model parameters. Changes in net primary productivity were most sensitive to the upper temperature limit on the rate of photosynthesis, which also had a dominant effect on overall land carbon trends; this is consistent with previous research that has shown the importance of climatic suppression of photosynthesis as a driver of carbon-climate feedbacks. Soil carbon generally decreased with increasing temperature, though the magnitude of this trend depends on both the net primary productivity changes and the temperature dependence of soil carbon decomposition. Vegetation carbon increased in some simulations, but this was not consistent across all configurations of model parameters. Comparing to global carbon budget observations, we identify the subset of model parameters which are consistent with observed carbon sinks; this serves to narrow considerably the future model projections of terrestrial carbon sink changes in comparison with the full model ensemble.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Potter, Christopher S.; Klooster, Steven A.; Brooks, Vanessa; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)
1998-01-01
There is considerable uncertainty as to whether interannual variability in climate and terrestrial ecosystem production is sufficient to explain observed variation in atmospheric carbon content over the past 20-30 years. In this paper, we investigated the response of net CO2 exchange in terrestrial ecosystems to interannual climate variability (1983 to 1988) using global satellite observations as drivers for the NASA-CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) simulation model. This computer model of net ecosystem production (NEP) is calibrated for interannual simulations driven by monthly satellite vegetation index data (NDVI) from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) at 1 degree spatial resolution. Major results from NASA-CASA simulations suggest that from 1985 to 1988, the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 and 60 degrees N) was the principal region driving progressive annual increases in global net primary production (NPP; i.e., the terrestrial biosphere sink for carbon). The average annual increase in NPP over this predominantly northern forest zone was on the order of +0.4 Pg (10 (exp 15) g) C per year. This increase resulted mainly from notable expansion of the growing season for plant carbon fixation toward the zonal latitude extremes, a pattern uniquely demonstrated in our regional visualization results. A net biosphere source flux of CO2 in 1983-1984, coinciding with an El Nino event, was followed by a major recovery of global NEP in 1985 which lasted through 1987 as a net carbon sink of between 0.4 and 2.6 Avg C per year. Analysis of model controls on NPP and soil heterotrophic CO2 fluxes (Rh) suggests that regional warming in northern forests can enhance ecosystem production significantly. In seasonally dry tropical zones, periodic drought and temperature drying effects may carry over with at least a two-year lag time to adversely impact ecosystem production. These yearly patterns in our model-predicted NEP are consistent in magnitude with the estimated exchange of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere with the atmosphere, as determined by previous isotopic (delta (sup 13 C) convolution analysis. Ecosystem simulation results can help further target locations where net carbon sink fluxes have occurred in the past or may be verified in subsequent field studies.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Z.; Chen, J.; Zheng, X.; Jiang, F.; Zhang, S.; Ju, W.; Yuan, W.; Mo, G.
2014-12-01
In this study, we explore the feasibility of optimizing ecosystem photosynthetic and respiratory parameters from the seasonal variation pattern of the net carbon flux. An optimization scheme is proposed to estimate two key parameters (Vcmax and Q10) by exploiting the seasonal variation in the net ecosystem carbon flux retrieved by an atmospheric inversion system. This scheme is implemented to estimate Vcmax and Q10 of the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) to improve its NEP simulation in the Boreal North America (BNA) region. Simultaneously, in-situ NEE observations at six eddy covariance sites are used to evaluate the NEE simulations. The results show that the performance of the optimized BEPS is superior to that of the BEPS with the default parameter values. These results have the implication on using atmospheric CO2 data for optimizing ecosystem parameters through atmospheric inversion or data assimilation techniques.
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Improving SWAT for simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Xuesong
2016-11-01
As a widely used watershed model for assessing impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on water quantity and quality, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has not been extensively tested in simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems. Here, we examine SWAT simulations of evapotranspiration (ET), net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and plant biomass at ten AmeriFlux forest sites across the U.S. We identify unrealistic radiation use efficiency (Bio_E), large leaf to biomass fraction (Bio_LEAF), and missing phosphorus supply from parent material weathering as the primary causes for the inadequate performance of the default SWATmore » model in simulating forest dynamics. By further revising the relevant parameters and processes, SWAT’s performance is substantially improved. Based on the comparison between the improved SWAT simulations and flux tower observations, we discuss future research directions for further enhancing model parameterization and representation of water and carbon cycling for forests.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liptak, J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.
2016-12-01
Amazon forests store an estimated 25% percent of global terrestrial carbon per year1, 2, but the responses of Amazon carbon uptake to climate change is highly uncertain. One source of this uncertainty is tropical sea surface temperature variability driven by teleconnections. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of year-to-year Amazon carbon exchange, with associated temperature and precipitation changes favoring net carbon storage in La Nina years, and net carbon release during El Nino years3. To determine how Amazon climate and terrestrial carbon fluxes react to ENSO alone and in concert with other SST-driven teleconnections such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), we force the atmosphere (CAM5) and land (CLM4) components of the CESM(BGC) with prescribed monthly SSTs over the period 1950—2014 in a Historical control simulation. We then run an experiment (PAC) with time-varying SSTs applied only to the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean, and repeating SST seasonal cycle climatologies elsewhere. Limiting SST variability to the equatorial Pacific indicates that other processes enhance ENSO-driven Amazon climate anomalies. Compared to the Historical control simulation, warming, drying and terrestrial carbon loss over the Amazon during El Nino periods are lower in the PAC simulation, especially prior to 1990 during the cool phase of the AMO. Cooling, moistening, and net carbon uptake during La Nina periods are also reduced in the PAC simulation, but differences are greater after 1990 during the warm phase of the AMO. By quantifying the relationships among climate drivers and carbon fluxes in the Historical and PAC simulations, we both assess the sensitivity of these relationships to the magnitude of ENSO forcing and quantify how other teleconnections affect ENSO-driven Amazon climate feedbacks. We expect that these results will help us improve hypotheses for how Atlantic and Pacific climate trends will affect future Amazon carbon carbon cycling. Pan, Y. et al. A large and persistent carbon sink in the world's forests. Science 333, 988-993 (2011) Brienen, Roel J. W. et al. Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink. Nature 519, 344-348 (2015) Botta, A. et al. Long-term variations of climate and carbon fluxes over the Amazon basin. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29 (2002)
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Matveev, A.; Matthews, H. D.
2009-04-01
Carbon fluxes from land conversion are among the most uncertain variables in our understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle, which limits our ability to estimate both the total human contribution to current climate forcing and the net effect of terrestrial biosphere changes on atmospheric CO2 increases. The current generation of coupled climate-carbon models have made significant progress in simulating the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but do not typically include land-use change as a dynamic component of the simulation. In this work we have incorporated a book-keeping land-use carbon accounting model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model. The terrestrial component of the UVic ESCM allows an aerial competition of five plant functional types (PFTs) in response to climatic conditions and area availability, and tracks the associated changes in affected carbon pools. In order to model CO2 emissions from land conversion in the terrestrial component of the model, we calculate the allocation of carbon to short and long-lived wood products following specified land-cover change, and use varying decay timescales to estimate CO2 emissions. We use recently available spatial datasets of both crop and pasture distributions to drive a series of transient simulations and estimate the net contribution of human land-use change to historical carbon emissions and climate change.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Edburg, Steven L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Lawrence, David M.
2011-01-01
Insect outbreaks are major ecosystem disturbances, affecting a similar area as forest fires annually across North America. Tree mortality caused by epidemics of bark beetles alters carbon cycling in the first several years following the disturbance by reducing stand-level primary production and increasing decomposition rates. The few studies of biogeochemical cycling following outbreaks have shown a range of impacts from small responses of net carbon fluxes in the first several years after a severe outbreak to large forest areas that are sources of carbon to the atmosphere for decades. To gain more understanding about causes of this range of responses,more » we used an ecosystem model to assess impacts of different bark beetle outbreak conditions on coupled carbon and nitrogen cycling. We modified the Community Land Model with prognostic carbon and nitrogen to include prescribed bark beetle outbreaks. We then compared control simulations (without a bark beetle outbreak) to simulations with various mortality severity, durations of outbreak, and snagfall dynamics to quantify the range of carbon flux responses and recovery rates of net ecosystem exchange to a range of realistic outbreak conditions. Prescribed mortality by beetles reduced leaf area and thus productivity. Gross primary productivity decreased by as much as 80% for a severe outbreak (95% mortality) and by 10% for less severe outbreaks (25% mortality). Soil mineral nitrogen dynamics (immobilization and plant uptake) were important in governing post-outbreak productivity, and were strongly modulated by carbon inputs to the soil from killed trees. Initial increases in heterotrophic respiration caused by a pulse of labile carbon from roots were followed by a slight reduction (from pre-snagfall reduced inputs), then a secondary increase (from inputs due to snagfall). Secondary increases in heterotrophic respiration were largest for simulated windthrow of snags after a prescribed snagfall delay period. Net ecosystem productivity recovered within 40 years for all simulations, with the largest increases in the first 10 years. Our simulations illustrate that, given the large variability in bark beetle outbreak conditions, a wide range of responses in carbon and nitrogen dynamics can occur. The fraction of trees killed, timing of snagfall, snagfall rate, and management decisions as to whether or not to remove snags for harvesting or for fire prevention will have a major impact on post-outbreak carbon fluxes up to 100 years following an outbreak.« less
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Modelling Temporal Variability in the Carbon Balance of a Spruce/Moss Boreal Forest
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Frolking, S.; Goulden, M. L.; Wofsy, S. C.; Fan, S.-M.; Sutton, D. J.; Munger, J. W.; Bazzaz, A. M.; Daube, B. C.; Crill, P. M.; Aber, J. D.;
1996-01-01
A model of the daily carbon balance of a black spruce/feathermoss boreal forest ecosystem was developed and results compared to preliminary data from the 1994 BOREAS field campaign in northern Manitoba, Canada. The model, driven by daily weather conditions, simulated daily soil climate status (temperature and moisture profiles), spruce photosynthesis and respiration, moss photosynthesis and respiration, and litter decomposition. Model agreement with preliminary field data was good for net ecosystem exchange (NEE), capturing both the asymmetrical seasonality and short-term variability. During the growing season simulated daily NEE ranged from -4 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) (carbon uptake by ecosystem) to + 2 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) (carbon flux to atmosphere), with fluctuations from day to day. In the early winter simulated NEE values were + 0.5 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1), dropping to + 0.2 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) in mid-winter. Simulated soil respiration during the growing season (+ 1 to + 5 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1)) was dominated by metabolic respiration of the live moss, with litter decomposition usually contributing less than 30% and live spruce root respiration less than 10% of the total. Both spruce and moss net primary productivity (NPP) rates were higher in early summer than late summer. Simulated annual NEE for 1994 was -51 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1), with 83% going into tree growth and 17% into the soil carbon accumulation. Moss NPP (58 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1)) was considered to be litter (i.e. soil carbon input; no net increase in live moss biomass). Ecosystem respiration during the snow-covered season (84 g Cm(exp -2)) was 58% of the growing season net carbon uptake. A simulation of the same site for 1968-1989 showed about 10-20% year-to-year variability in heterotrophic respiration (mean of + 113 g C m-2 y@1). Moss NPP ranged from 19 to 114 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1); spruce NPP from 81 to 150 g C nt-2 y,@l; spruce growth (NPP minus litterfall) from 34 to 103 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1); NEE ranged from +37 to -142 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1). Values for these carbon balance terms in 1994 were slightly smaller than the 1969 - 89 means. Higher ecosystem productivity years (more negative NEE) generally had early springs and relatively wet summers; lower productivity years had late springs and relatively dry summers.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Moore, J. K.; Goulden, M.; Fu, W.; Koven, C.; Swann, A. L. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Lindsay, K. T.; Munoz, E.
2017-12-01
Quantifying interactions between global biogeochemical cycles and the Earth system is important for predicting future atmospheric composition and informing energy policy. We applied a feedback analysis framework to three sets of Historical (1850-2005), Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (2006-2100), and its extension (2101-2300) simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1(BGC)) to quantify drivers of terrestrial and ocean responses of carbon uptake. In the biogeochemically coupled simulation (BGC), the effects of CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition influenced marine and terrestrial carbon cycling. In the radiatively coupled simulation (RAD), the effects of rising temperature and circulation changes due to radiative forcing from CO2, other greenhouse gases, and aerosols were the sole drivers of carbon cycle changes. In the third, fully coupled simulation (FC), both the biogeochemical and radiative coupling effects acted simultaneously. We found that climate-carbon sensitivities derived from RAD simulations produced a net ocean carbon storage climate sensitivity that was weaker and a net land carbon storage climate sensitivity that was stronger than those diagnosed from the FC and BGC simulations. For the ocean, this nonlinearity was associated with warming-induced weakening of ocean circulation and mixing that limited exchange of dissolved inorganic carbon between surface and deeper water masses. For the land, this nonlinearity was associated with strong gains in gross primary production in the FC simulation, driven by enhancements in the hydrological cycle and increased nutrient availability. We developed and applied a nonlinearity metric to rank model responses and driver variables. The climate-carbon cycle feedback gain at 2300 was 42% higher when estimated from climate-carbon sensitivities derived from the difference between FC and BGC than when derived from RAD. We re-analyzed other CMIP5 model results to quantify the effects of such nonlinearities on their projected climate-carbon cycle feedback gains.
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Simulation of gross and net erosion of high-Z materials in the DIII-D divertor
Wampler, William R.; Ding, R.; Stangeby, P. C.; ...
2015-12-17
The three-dimensional Monte Carlo code ERO has been used to simulate dedicated DIII-D experiments in which Mo and W samples with different sizes were exposed to controlled and well-diagnosed divertor plasma conditions to measure the gross and net erosion rates. Experimentally, the net erosion rate is significantly reduced due to the high local redeposition probability of eroded high-Z materials, which according to the modelling is mainly controlled by the electric field and plasma density within the Chodura sheath. Similar redeposition ratios were obtained from ERO modelling with three different sheath models for small angles between the magnetic field and themore » material surface, mainly because of their similar mean ionization lengths. The modelled redeposition ratios are close to the measured value. Decreasing the potential drop across the sheath can suppress both gross and net erosion because sputtering yield is decreased due to lower incident energy while the redeposition ratio is not reduced owing to the higher electron density in the Chodura sheath. Taking into account material mixing in the ERO surface model, the net erosion rate of high-Z materials is shown to be strongly dependent on the carbon impurity concentration in the background plasma; higher carbon concentration can suppress net erosion. As a result, the principal experimental results such as net erosion rate and profile and redeposition ratio are well reproduced by the ERO simulations.« less
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Net carbon exchange across the Arctic tundra-boreal forest transition in Alaska 1981-2000
Thompson, Catharine Copass; McGuire, A.D.; Clein, Joy S.; Chapin, F. S.; Beringer, J.
2006-01-01
Shifts in the carbon balance of high-latitude ecosystems could result from differential responses of vegetation and soil processes to changing moisture and temperature regimes and to a lengthening of the growing season. Although shrub expansion and northward movement of treeline should increase carbon inputs, the effects of these vegetation changes on net carbon exchange have not been evaluated. We selected low shrub, tall shrub, and forest tundra sites near treeline in northwestern Alaska, representing the major structural transitions expected in response to warming. In these sites, we measured aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and vegetation and soil carbon and nitrogen pools, and used these data to parameterize the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model. We simulated the response of carbon balance components to air temperature and precipitation trends during 1981-2000. In areas experiencing warmer and dryer conditions, Net Primary Production (NPP) decreased and heterotrophic respiration (R H ) increased, leading to a decrease in Net Ecosystem Production (NEP). In warmer and wetter conditions NPP increased, but the response was exceeded by an increase in R H ; therefore, NEP also decreased. Lastly, in colder and wetter regions, the increase in NPP exceeded a small decline in R H , leading to an increase in NEP. The net effect for the region was a slight gain in ecosystem carbon storage over the 20 year period. This research highlights the potential importance of spatial variability in ecosystem responses to climate change in assessing the response of carbon storage in northern Alaska over the last two decades. ?? Springer 2005.
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Simulated effects of nitrogen saturation the global carbon budget using the IBIS model
Lu, Xuehe; Jiang, Hong; Liu, Jinxun; Zhang, Xiuying; Jin, Jiaxin; Zhu, Qiuan; Zhang, Zhen; Peng, Changhui
2016-01-01
Over the past 100 years, human activity has greatly changed the rate of atmospheric N (nitrogen) deposition in terrestrial ecosystems, resulting in N saturation in some regions of the world. The contribution of N saturation to the global carbon budget remains uncertain due to the complicated nature of C-N (carbon-nitrogen) interactions and diverse geography. Although N deposition is included in most terrestrial ecosystem models, the effect of N saturation is frequently overlooked. In this study, the IBIS (Integrated BIosphere Simulator) was used to simulate the global-scale effects of N saturation during the period 1961–2009. The results of this model indicate that N saturation reduced global NPP (Net Primary Productivity) and NEP (Net Ecosystem Productivity) by 0.26 and 0.03 Pg C yr−1, respectively. The negative effects of N saturation on carbon sequestration occurred primarily in temperate forests and grasslands. In response to elevated CO2 levels, global N turnover slowed due to increased biomass growth, resulting in a decline in soil mineral N. These changes in N cycling reduced the impact of N saturation on the global carbon budget. However, elevated N deposition in certain regions may further alter N saturation and C-N coupling.
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Zhang, Z.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Zhu, Q.; Wei, X.; Jiang, Z.; Zhou, G.; Zhang, X.; Han, J.
2011-01-01
The climate change has significantly affected the carbon cycling in Yangtze River Basin. To better understand the alternation pattern for the relationship between carbon cycling and climate change, the net primary production (NPP) were simulated in the study area from 1956 to 2006 by using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). The results showed that the average annual NPP per square meter was about 0.518 kg C in Yangtze River Basin. The high NPP levels were mainly distributed in the southeast area of Sichuan, and the highest value reached 1.05 kg C/m2. The NPP increased based on the simulated temporal trends. The spatiotemporal variability of the NPP in the vegetation types was obvious, and it was depended on the climate and soil condition. We found the drought climate was one of critical factor that impacts the alterations of the NPP in the area by the simulation. ?? 2011 IEEE.
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Farming practices can have a large impact on the soil carbon cycle and the resulting net emission of greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide (CO**2), methane and nitrous oxide. Primary sources of CO**2 emission on dairy farms are soil, plant, and animal respiration with smaller contributions from ...
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Carr, Mary-Elena
1998-01-01
A size-based ecosystem model was modified to include periodic upwelling events and used to evaluate the effect of episodic nutrient supply on the standing stock, carbon uptake, and carbon flow into mesozooplankton grazing and sinking flux in a coastal upwelling regime. Two ecosystem configurations were compared: a single food chain made up of net phytoplankton and mesozooplankton (one autotroph and one heterotroph, A1H1), and three interconnected food chains plus bacteria (three autotrophs and four heterotrophs, A3H4). The carbon pathways in the A1H1 simulations were under stronger physical control than those of the A3H4 runs, where the small size classes are not affected by frequent upwelling events. In the more complex food web simulations, the microbial pathway determines the total carbon uptake and grazing rates, and regenerated nitrogen accounts for more than half of the total primary production for periods of 20 days or longer between events. By contrast, new production, export of carbon through sinking and mesozooplankton grazing are more important in the A1H1 simulations. In the A3H4 simulations, the turnover time scale of the autotroph biomass increases as the period between upwelling events increases, because of the larger contribution of slow-growing net phytoplankton. The upwelling period was characterized for three upwelling sites from the alongshore wind speed measured by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) and the corresponding model output compared with literature data. This validation exercise for three upwelling sites and a downstream embayment suggests that standing stock, carbon uptake and size fractionation were best supported by the A3H4 simulations, while the simulated sinking fluxes are not distinguishable in the two configurations.
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Year-round Regional CO2 Fluxes from Boreal and Tundra Ecosystems in Alaska
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Commane, R.; Lindaas, J.; Benmergui, J. S.; Luus, K. A.; Chang, R. Y. W.; Daube, B. C.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Henderson, J.; Karion, A.; Miller, J. B.; Miller, S. M.; Parazoo, N.; Randerson, J. T.; Sweeney, C.; Tans, P. P.; Thoning, K. W.; Veraverbeke, S.; Miller, C. E.; Wofsy, S. C.
2016-12-01
High-latitude ecosystems could release large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere in a warmer climate. We derive temporally and spatially resolved year-round CO2 fluxes in Alaska from a synthesis of airborne and tower CO2 observations in 2012-2014. We find that tundra ecosystems were net sources of atmospheric CO2. We discuss these flux estimates in the context of long-term CO2 measurements at Barrow, AK, to asses the long term trend in carbon fluxes in the Arctic. Many Earth System Models incorrectly simulate net carbon uptake in Alaska presently. Our results imply that annual net emission of CO2 to the atmosphere may have increased markedly in this region of the Arctic in response to warming climate, supporting the view that climate-carbon feedback is strongly positive in the high Arctic.
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Contribution of Increasing CO2 and Climate to Carbon Storage by Ecosystems in the United States
David Schimel; Jerry Melillo; Hanqin Tian; A. David McGuire; David Kicklighter; Timothy Kittel; Nan Rosenbloom; Steven Running; Peter Thorton; Dennis Ojima; William Parton; Robin Kelly; Martin Sykes; Ron Neilson; Brian Rizzo
2000-01-01
The effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate on net carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of the conterminous United States for the period 1895-1993 were modeled with new, detailed historical climate information. For the period 1980-1993, results from an ensemble of three models agree within 25%, simulating a land carbon sink...
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Comparing Amazon Basin CO2 fluxes from an atmospheric inversion with TRENDY biosphere models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Alden, C. B.; Harper, A. B.; Ahlström, A.; Touma, D. E.; Miller, J. B.; Gatti, L. V.; Gloor, M.
2015-12-01
Net exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere is sensitive to environmental conditions, including extreme heat and drought. Of particular importance for local and global carbon balance and climate are the expansive tracts of tropical rainforest located in the Amazon Basin. Because of the Basin's size and ecological heterogeneity, net biosphere CO2 exchange with the atmosphere remains largely un-constrained. In particular, the response of net CO2 exchange to changes in environmental conditions such as temperature and precipitation are not yet well known. However, proper representation of these relationships in biosphere models is a necessary constraint for accurately modeling future climate and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. In an effort to compare biosphere response to climate across different biosphere models, the TRENDY model intercomparison project coordinated the simulation of CO2 fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere, in response to historical climate forcing, by 9 different Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. We examine the TRENDY model results in the Amazon Basin, and compare this "bottom-up" method with fluxes derived from a "top-down" approach to estimating net CO2 fluxes, obtained through atmospheric inverse modeling using CO2 measurements sampled by aircraft above the basin. We compare the "bottom-up" and "top-down" fluxes in 5 sub-regions of the Amazon basin on a monthly basis for 2010-2012. Our results show important periods of agreement between some models in the TRENDY suite and atmospheric inverse model results, notably the simulation of increased biosphere CO2 loss during wet season heat in the Central Amazon. During the dry season, however, model ability to simulate observed response of net CO2 exchange to drought was varied, with few models able to reproduce the "top-down" inversion flux signals. Our results highlight the value of atmospheric trace gas observations for helping to narrow the possibilities of future carbon-climate interactions, especially in historically under-observed regions like the Amazon.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Z.; Law, B. E.; Jones, M. O.
2015-12-01
Previous projections of the contemporary forest carbon balance in the western US showed uncertainties associated with impacts of climate extremes and a coarse spatio-temporal resolution implemented over heterogeneous mountain regions. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM) 4.5 to produce 4km resolution forest carbon changes with drought, fire and management in the western US. We parameterized the model with species data using local plant trait observations for 30 species. To quantify uncertainty, we evaluated the model with data from flux sites, inventories and ancillary data in the region. Simulated GPP was lower than the measurements at our AmeriFlux sites by 17-22%. Simulated burned area was generally higher than Landsat observations, suggesting the model overestimates fire emissions with the new fire model. Landsat MTBS data show high severity fire represents only a small portion of the total burnt area (12-14%), and no increasing trend from 1984 to 2011. Moderate severity fire increased ~0.23%/year due to fires in the Sierra Nevada (Law & Waring 2014). Oregon, California, and Washington were a net carbon sink, and net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) declined in California over the past 15 years, partly due to drought impacts. Fire emissions were a small portion of the regional carbon budget compared with the effect of harvest removals. Fossil fuel emissions in CA are more than 3x that of OR and WA combined, but are lower per capita. We also identified forest regions that are most vulnerable to climate-driven transformations and to evaluate the effects of management strategies on forest NECB. Differences in forest NECB among states are strongly influenced by the extent of drought (drier longer in the SW) and management intensity (higher in the PNW).
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Hayes, Daniel J.; McGuire, A. David; Kicklighter, David W.; Burnside , Todd J.; Melillo, Jerry M.
2010-01-01
Recent changes in climate, disturbance regimes and land use and management systems in Northern Eurasia have the potential to disrupt the terrestrial sink of atmospheric CO2 in a way that accelerates global climate change. To determine the recent trends in the carbon balance of the arctic and boreal ecosystems of this region, we performed a retrospective analysis of terrestrial carbon dynamics across northern Eurasia over a recent 10-year period using a terrestrial biogeochemical process model. The results of the simulations suggest a shift in direction of the net flux from the terrestrial sink of earlier decades to a net source on the order of 45 Tg C year−1between 1997 and 2006. The simulation framework and subsequent analyses presented in this study attribute this shift to a large loss of carbon from boreal forest ecosystems, which experienced a trend of decreasing precipitation and a large area burned during this time period.
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Effects of Land Use Change for Crops on Water and Carbon Budgets in the Midwest USA
Sun, Jian; Twine, Tracy; Hill, Jason; ...
2017-02-07
By increasing the demand for food and bioenergy, the global landscape has altered dramatically in recent years. Land use and land cover change affects the environmental system in many ways through biophysical and biogeochemical mechanisms. Here, we evaluate the impacts of land use and land cover change driven by recent crop expansion and conversion on the water budget, carbon exchange, and carbon storage in the Midwest USA. A dynamic global vegetation model was used to simulate and examine the impacts of landscape change in a historical case based on crop distribution data from the United States Department of Agriculture Nationalmore » Agricultural Statistics Services. Furthermore, the simulation results indicate that recent crop expansion not only decreased soil carbon sequestration (60 Tg less of soil organic carbon) and net carbon flux into ecosystems (3.7 Tg • year -1 less of net biome productivity), but also lessened water consumption through evapotranspiration (1.04 x 10 10 m 3 • year -1 less) over 12 states in the Midwest. More water yield at the land surface does not necessarily make more water available for vegetation. Crop residue removal might also exacerbate the soil carbon loss.« less
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Effects of Land Use Change for Crops on Water and Carbon Budgets in the Midwest USA
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sun, Jian; Twine, Tracy; Hill, Jason
By increasing the demand for food and bioenergy, the global landscape has altered dramatically in recent years. Land use and land cover change affects the environmental system in many ways through biophysical and biogeochemical mechanisms. Here, we evaluate the impacts of land use and land cover change driven by recent crop expansion and conversion on the water budget, carbon exchange, and carbon storage in the Midwest USA. A dynamic global vegetation model was used to simulate and examine the impacts of landscape change in a historical case based on crop distribution data from the United States Department of Agriculture Nationalmore » Agricultural Statistics Services. Furthermore, the simulation results indicate that recent crop expansion not only decreased soil carbon sequestration (60 Tg less of soil organic carbon) and net carbon flux into ecosystems (3.7 Tg • year -1 less of net biome productivity), but also lessened water consumption through evapotranspiration (1.04 x 10 10 m 3 • year -1 less) over 12 states in the Midwest. More water yield at the land surface does not necessarily make more water available for vegetation. Crop residue removal might also exacerbate the soil carbon loss.« less
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Simulating the Earth System Response to Negative Emissions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jackson, R. B.; Milne, J.; Littleton, E. W.; Jones, C.; Canadell, J.; Peters, G. P.; van Vuuren, D.; Davis, S. J.; Jonas, M.; Smith, P.; Ciais, P.; Rogelj, J.; Torvanger, A.; Shrestha, G.
2016-12-01
The natural carbon sinks of the land and oceans absorb approximately half the anthropogenic CO2 emitted every year. The CO2 that is not absorbed accumulates in the Earth's atmosphere and traps the suns rays causing an increase in the global mean temperature. Removing this left over CO2 using negative emissions technologies (NETs) has been proposed as a strategy to lessen the accumulating CO2 and avoid dangerous climate change. Using CMIP5 Earth system model simulations this study assessed the impact on the global carbon cycle, and how the Earth system might respond, to negative emissions strategies applied to low emissions scenarios, over different times horizons from the year 2000 to 2300. The modeling results suggest that using NETs to remove atmospheric CO2 over five 50-year time horizons has varying effects at different points in time. The effects of anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks, can result in positive or negative changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Results show that historic emissions and the current state of the Earth System have impacts on the behavior of atmospheric CO2, as do instantaneous anthropogenic emissions. Indeed, varying background scenarios seemed to have a greater effect on atmospheric CO2 than the actual amount and timing of NETs. These results show how NETs interact with the physical climate-carbon cycle system and highlight the need for more research on earth-system dynamics as they relate to carbon sinks and sources and anthropogenic perturbations.
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Elevated CO2 maintains grassland net carbon uptake under a future heat and drought extreme
Roy, Jacques; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Augusti, Angela; Benot, Marie-Lise; Thiery, Lionel; Darsonville, Olivier; Landais, Damien; Piel, Clément; Defossez, Marc; Devidal, Sébastien; Escape, Christophe; Ravel, Olivier; Fromin, Nathalie; Volaire, Florence; Milcu, Alexandru; Bahn, Michael; Soussana, Jean-François
2016-01-01
Extreme climatic events (ECEs) such as droughts and heat waves are predicted to increase in intensity and frequency and impact the terrestrial carbon balance. However, we lack direct experimental evidence of how the net carbon uptake of ecosystems is affected by ECEs under future elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2). Taking advantage of an advanced controlled environment facility for ecosystem research (Ecotron), we simulated eCO2 and extreme cooccurring heat and drought events as projected for the 2050s and analyzed their effects on the ecosystem-level carbon and water fluxes in a C3 grassland. Our results indicate that eCO2 not only slows down the decline of ecosystem carbon uptake during the ECE but also enhances its recovery after the ECE, as mediated by increases of root growth and plant nitrogen uptake induced by the ECE. These findings indicate that, in the predicted near future climate, eCO2 could mitigate the effects of extreme droughts and heat waves on ecosystem net carbon uptake. PMID:27185934
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Uncertainty in predictions of forest carbon dynamics: separating driver error from model error.
Spadavecchia, L; Williams, M; Law, B E
2011-07-01
We present an analysis of the relative magnitude and contribution of parameter and driver uncertainty to the confidence intervals on estimates of net carbon fluxes. Model parameters may be difficult or impractical to measure, while driver fields are rarely complete, with data gaps due to sensor failure and sparse observational networks. Parameters are generally derived through some optimization method, while driver fields may be interpolated from available data sources. For this study, we used data from a young ponderosa pine stand at Metolius, Central Oregon, and a simple daily model of coupled carbon and water fluxes (DALEC). An ensemble of acceptable parameterizations was generated using an ensemble Kalman filter and eddy covariance measurements of net C exchange. Geostatistical simulations generated an ensemble of meteorological driving variables for the site, consistent with the spatiotemporal autocorrelations inherent in the observational data from 13 local weather stations. Simulated meteorological data were propagated through the model to derive the uncertainty on the CO2 flux resultant from driver uncertainty typical of spatially extensive modeling studies. Furthermore, the model uncertainty was partitioned between temperature and precipitation. With at least one meteorological station within 25 km of the study site, driver uncertainty was relatively small ( 10% of the total net flux), while parameterization uncertainty was larger, 50% of the total net flux. The largest source of driver uncertainty was due to temperature (8% of the total flux). The combined effect of parameter and driver uncertainty was 57% of the total net flux. However, when the nearest meteorological station was > 100 km from the study site, uncertainty in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) predictions introduced by meteorological drivers increased by 88%. Precipitation estimates were a larger source of bias in NEE estimates than were temperature estimates, although the biases partly compensated for each other. The time scales on which precipitation errors occurred in the simulations were shorter than the temporal scales over which drought developed in the model, so drought events were reasonably simulated. The approach outlined here provides a means to assess the uncertainty and bias introduced by meteorological drivers in regional-scale ecological forecasting.
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Accounting for Forest Harvest and Wildfire in a Spatially-distributed Carbon Cycle Process Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Turner, D. P.; Ritts, W.; Kennedy, R. E.; Yang, Z.; Law, B. E.
2009-12-01
Forests are subject to natural disturbances in the form of wildfire, as well as management-related disturbances in the form of timber harvest. These disturbance events have strong impacts on local and regional carbon budgets, but quantifying the associated carbon fluxes remains challenging. The ORCA Project aims to quantify regional net ecosystem production (NEP) and net biome production (NBP) in Oregon, California, and Washington, and we have adopted an integrated approach based on Landsat imagery and ecosystem modeling. To account for stand-level carbon fluxes, the Biome-BGC model has been adapted to simulate multiple severities of fire and harvest. New variables include snags, direct fire emissions, and harvest removals. New parameters include fire-intensity-specific combustion factors for each carbon pool (based on field measurements) and proportional removal rates for harvest events. To quantify regional fluxes, the model is applied in a spatially-distributed mode over the domain of interest, with disturbance history derived from a time series of Landsat images. In stand-level simulations, the post disturbance transition from negative (source) to positive (sink) NEP is delayed approximately a decade in the case of high severity fire compared to harvest. Simulated direct pyrogenic emissions range from 11 to 25 % of total non-soil ecosystem carbon. In spatial mode application over Oregon and California, the sum of annual pyrogenic emissions and harvest removals was generally less that half of total NEP, resulting in significant carbon sequestration on the land base. Spatially and temporally explicit simulation of disturbance-related carbon fluxes will contribute to our ability to evaluate effects of management on regional carbon flux, and in our ability to assess potential biospheric feedbacks to climate change mediated by changing disturbance regimes.
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Aspects regarding at 13C isotope separation column control using Petri nets system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boca, M. L.; Ciortea, M. E.
2015-11-01
This paper is intended to show that Petri nets can be also applicable in the chemical industry. It used linear programming, modeling underlying Petri nets, especially discrete event systems for isotopic separation, the purpose of considering and control events in real-time through graphical representations. In this paper it is simulate the control of 13C Isotope Separation column using Petri nets. The major problem with 13C comes from the difficulty of obtaining it and raising its natural fraction. Carbon isotopes can be obtained using many methods, one of them being the cryogenic distillation of carbon monoxide. Some few aspects regarding operating conditions and the construction of such cryogenic plants are known today, and even less information are available as far as the separation process modeling and control are concerned. In fact, the efficient control of the carbon monoxide distillation process represents a necessity for large-scale 13C production. Referring to a classic distillation process, some models for carbon isotope separation have been proposed, some based on mass, component and energy balance equations, some on the nonlinear wave theory or the Cohen equations. For modeling the system it was used Petri nets because in this case it is deal with discrete event systems. In use of the non-timed and with auxiliary times Petri model, the transport stream was divided into sections and these sections will be analyzed successively. Because of the complexity of the system and the large amount of calculations required it was not possible to analyze the system as a unitary whole. A first attempt to model the system as a unitary whole led to the blocking of the model during simulation, because of the large processing times.
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McGuire, A David; Lawrence, David M; Koven, Charles; Clein, Joy S; Burke, Eleanor; Chen, Guangsheng; Jafarov, Elchin; MacDougall, Andrew H; Marchenko, Sergey; Nicolsky, Dmitry; Peng, Shushi; Rinke, Annette; Ciais, Philippe; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Hayes, Daniel J; Ji, Duoying; Krinner, Gerhard; Moore, John C; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Schädel, Christina; Schaefer, Kevin; Schuur, Edward A G; Zhuang, Qianlai
2018-04-10
We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km 2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km 2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (10 15 -g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
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Turner, David P; Ritts, William D; Kennedy, Robert E; Gray, Andrew N; Yang, Zhiqiang
2015-12-01
Disturbance is a key influence on forest carbon dynamics, but the complexity of spatial and temporal patterns in forest disturbance makes it difficult to quantify their impacts on carbon flux over broad spatial domains. Here we used a time series of Landsat remote sensing images and a climate-driven carbon cycle process model to evaluate carbon fluxes at the ecoregion scale in western Oregon. Thirteen percent of total forest area in the West Cascades ecoregion was disturbed during the reference interval (1991-2010). The disturbance regime was dominated by harvesting (59 % of all area disturbed), with lower levels of fire (23 %), and pest/pathogen mortality (18 %). Ecoregion total Net Ecosystem Production was positive (a carbon sink) in all years, with greater carbon uptake in relatively cool years. Localized carbon source areas were associated with recent harvests and fire. Net Ecosystem Exchange (including direct fire emissions) showed greater interannual variation and became negative (a source) in the highest fire years. Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance (i.e. change in carbon stocks) was more positive on public that private forestland, because of a lower disturbance rate, and more positive in the decade of the 1990s than in the warmer and drier 2000s because of lower net ecosystem production and higher direct fire emissions in the 2000s. Despite recurrent disturbances, the West Cascades ecoregion has maintained a positive carbon balance in recent decades. The high degree of spatial and temporal resolution in these simulations permits improved attribution of regional carbon sources and sinks.
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Simulated effects of nitrogen saturation on the global carbon budget using the IBIS model
Lu, Xuehe; Jiang, Hong; Liu, Jinxun; Zhang, Xiuying; Jin, Jiaxin; Zhu, Qiuan; Zhang, Zhen; Peng, Changhui
2016-01-01
Over the past 100 years, human activity has greatly changed the rate of atmospheric N (nitrogen) deposition in terrestrial ecosystems, resulting in N saturation in some regions of the world. The contribution of N saturation to the global carbon budget remains uncertain due to the complicated nature of C-N (carbon-nitrogen) interactions and diverse geography. Although N deposition is included in most terrestrial ecosystem models, the effect of N saturation is frequently overlooked. In this study, the IBIS (Integrated BIosphere Simulator) was used to simulate the global-scale effects of N saturation during the period 1961–2009. The results of this model indicate that N saturation reduced global NPP (Net Primary Productivity) and NEP (Net Ecosystem Productivity) by 0.26 and 0.03 Pg C yr−1, respectively. The negative effects of N saturation on carbon sequestration occurred primarily in temperate forests and grasslands. In response to elevated CO2 levels, global N turnover slowed due to increased biomass growth, resulting in a decline in soil mineral N. These changes in N cycling reduced the impact of N saturation on the global carbon budget. However, elevated N deposition in certain regions may further alter N saturation and C-N coupling. PMID:27966643
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schürmann, Gregor J.; Kaminski, Thomas; Köstler, Christoph; Carvalhais, Nuno; Voßbeck, Michael; Kattge, Jens; Giering, Ralf; Rödenbeck, Christian; Heimann, Martin; Zaehle, Sönke
2016-09-01
We describe the Max Planck Institute Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (MPI-CCDAS) built around the tangent-linear version of the JSBACH land-surface scheme, which is part of the MPI-Earth System Model v1. The simulated phenology and net land carbon balance were constrained by globally distributed observations of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR, using the TIP-FAPAR product) and atmospheric CO2 at a global set of monitoring stations for the years 2005 to 2009. When constrained by FAPAR observations alone, the system successfully, and computationally efficiently, improved simulated growing-season average FAPAR, as well as its seasonality in the northern extra-tropics. When constrained by atmospheric CO2 observations alone, global net and gross carbon fluxes were improved, despite a tendency of the system to underestimate tropical productivity. Assimilating both data streams jointly allowed the MPI-CCDAS to match both observations (TIP-FAPAR and atmospheric CO2) equally well as the single data stream assimilation cases, thereby increasing the overall appropriateness of the simulated biosphere dynamics and underlying parameter values. Our study thus demonstrates the value of multiple-data-stream assimilation for the simulation of terrestrial biosphere dynamics. It further highlights the potential role of remote sensing data, here the TIP-FAPAR product, in stabilising the strongly underdetermined atmospheric inversion problem posed by atmospheric transport and CO2 observations alone. Notwithstanding these advances, the constraint of the observations on regional gross and net CO2 flux patterns on the MPI-CCDAS is limited through the coarse-scale parametrisation of the biosphere model. We expect improvement through a refined initialisation strategy and inclusion of further biosphere observations as constraints.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, F.; Bond-Lamberty, B.; Levis, S.
2014-03-01
Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale. It affects the net carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems by emitting carbon directly and immediately into the atmosphere from biomass burning (the fire direct effect), and by changing net ecosystem productivity and land-use carbon loss in post-fire regions due to biomass burning and fire-induced vegetation mortality (the fire indirect effect). Here, we provide the first quantitative assessment of the impact of fire on the net carbon balance of global terrestrial ecosystems during the 20th century, and investigate the roles of fire's direct and indirect effects. This is done by quantifying the difference between the 20th century fire-on and fire-off simulations with the NCAR Community Land Model CLM4.5 (prescribed vegetation cover and uncoupled from the atmospheric model) as a model platform. Results show that fire decreases the net carbon gain of global terrestrial ecosystems by 1.0 Pg C yr-1 averaged across the 20th century, as a result of the fire direct effect (1.9 Pg C yr-1) partly offset by the indirect effect (-0.9 Pg C yr-1). Post-fire regions generally experience decreased carbon gains, which is significant over tropical savannas and some North American and East Asian forests. This decrease is due to the direct effect usually exceeding the indirect effect, while they have similar spatial patterns and opposite sign. The effect of fire on the net carbon balance significantly declines until ∼1970 with a trend of 8 Tg C yr-1 due to an increasing indirect effect, and increases subsequently with a trend of 18 Tg C yr-1 due to an increasing direct effect. These results help constrain the global-scale dynamics of fire and the terrestrial carbon cycle.
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Chen, Guangsheng; Hayes, Daniel J.; McGuire, A. David
2017-01-01
Burn area and the frequency of extreme fire events have been increasing during recent decades in North America, and this trend is expected to continue over the 21st century. While many aspects of the North American carbon budget have been intensively studied, the net contribution of fire disturbance to the overall net carbon flux at the continental scale remains uncertain. Based on national scale, spatially explicit and long-term fire data, along with the improved model parameterization in a process-based ecosystem model, we simulated the impact of fire disturbance on both direct carbon emissions and net terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance in North America. Fire-caused direct carbon emissions were 106.55 ± 15.98 Tg C/yr during 1990–2012; however, the net ecosystem carbon balance associated with fire was −26.09 ± 5.22 Tg C/yr, indicating that most of the emitted carbon was resequestered by the terrestrial ecosystem. Direct carbon emissions showed an increase in Alaska and Canada during 1990–2012 as compared to prior periods due to more extreme fire events, resulting in a large carbon source from these two regions. Among biomes, the largest carbon source was found to be from the boreal forest, primarily due to large reductions in soil organic matter during, and with slower recovery after, fire events. The interactions between fire and environmental factors reduced the fire-caused ecosystem carbon source. Fire disturbance only caused a weak carbon source as compared to the best estimate terrestrial carbon sink in North America owing to the long-term legacy effects of historical burn area coupled with fast ecosystem recovery during 1990–2012.
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Lawrence, David M.; Koven, Charles; Clein, Joy S.; Burke, Eleanor; Chen, Guangsheng; Jafarov, Elchin; MacDougall, Andrew H.; Marchenko, Sergey; Nicolsky, Dmitry; Peng, Shushi; Rinke, Annette; Ciais, Philippe; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Krinner, Gerhard; Moore, John C.; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Schädel, Christina; Schaefer, Kevin; Zhuang, Qianlai
2018-01-01
We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. PMID:29581283
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McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David M.; Koven, Charles; Clein, Joy S.; Burke, Eleanor J.; Chen, Guangsheng; Jafarov, Elchin; MacDougall, Andrew H.; Marchenko, Sergey S.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Peng, Shushi; Rinke, Annette; Ciais, Philippe; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Hayes, Daniel J.; Ji, Duoying; Krinner, Gerhard; Moore, John C.; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Schadel, Christina; Schaefer, Kevin; Schuur, Edward A.G.; Zhuang, Qianlai
2018-01-01
We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wampler, William R.; Ding, R.; Stangeby, P. C.
The three-dimensional Monte Carlo code ERO has been used to simulate dedicated DIII-D experiments in which Mo and W samples with different sizes were exposed to controlled and well-diagnosed divertor plasma conditions to measure the gross and net erosion rates. Experimentally, the net erosion rate is significantly reduced due to the high local redeposition probability of eroded high-Z materials, which according to the modelling is mainly controlled by the electric field and plasma density within the Chodura sheath. Similar redeposition ratios were obtained from ERO modelling with three different sheath models for small angles between the magnetic field and themore » material surface, mainly because of their similar mean ionization lengths. The modelled redeposition ratios are close to the measured value. Decreasing the potential drop across the sheath can suppress both gross and net erosion because sputtering yield is decreased due to lower incident energy while the redeposition ratio is not reduced owing to the higher electron density in the Chodura sheath. Taking into account material mixing in the ERO surface model, the net erosion rate of high-Z materials is shown to be strongly dependent on the carbon impurity concentration in the background plasma; higher carbon concentration can suppress net erosion. As a result, the principal experimental results such as net erosion rate and profile and redeposition ratio are well reproduced by the ERO simulations.« less
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McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David M.; Koven, Charles; ...
2018-03-26
We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km 2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbonmore » varied between 66-Pg C (10 15-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. In conclusion, this assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David M.; Koven, Charles
We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km 2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbonmore » varied between 66-Pg C (10 15-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. In conclusion, this assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback.« less
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Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Zhu, Zhiliang
2015-01-01
Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent modeling environment.
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Carbon dioxide budget in a temperature grassland ecosystem
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kim, Joon; Verma, Shashi B.; Clement, Robert J.
1992-01-01
Eddy correlation measurements of CO2 flux made during May-October 1987 and June-August 1989 were employed, in conjunction with simulated data, to examine the net exchange of CO2 in a temperature grassland ecosystem. Simulated estimates of CO2 uptake were used when flux measurements were not available. These estimates were based on daily intercepted photosynthetically active radiation, air temperature, and extractable soil water. Soil CO2 flux and dark respiration of the aerial part of plants were estimated using the relationships developed by Norman et al. (1992) and Polley et al. (1992) at the study site. The results indicate that the CO2 exchange between this ecosystem and the atmosphere is highly variable. The net ecosystem CO2 exchange reached its peak value (12-18 g/sq m d) during the period when the leaf area index was maximum. Drought, a frequent occurrence in this region, can change this ecosystem from a sink to a source for atmospheric CO2. Comparison with data on dry matter indicated that the aboveground biomass accounted for about 45-70 percent of the net carbon uptake, suggesting the importance of the below ground biomass in estimating net primary productivity in this ecosystem.
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2011-01-01
Background A simulation model based on remote sensing data for spatial vegetation properties has been used to estimate ecosystem carbon fluxes across Yellowstone National Park (YNP). The CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model was applied at a regional scale to estimate seasonal and annual carbon fluxes as net primary production (NPP) and soil respiration components. Predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux of CO2 is estimated from the model for carbon sinks and sources over multi-year periods that varied in climate and (wildfire) disturbance histories. Monthly Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) image coverages from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument (from 2000 to 2006) were direct inputs to the model. New map products have been added to CASA from airborne remote sensing of coarse woody debris (CWD) in areas burned by wildfires over the past two decades. Results Model results indicated that relatively cooler and wetter summer growing seasons were the most favorable for annual plant production and net ecosystem carbon gains in representative landscapes of YNP. When summed across vegetation class areas, the predominance of evergreen forest and shrubland (sagebrush) cover was evident, with these two classes together accounting for 88% of the total annual NPP flux of 2.5 Tg C yr-1 (1 Tg = 1012 g) for the entire Yellowstone study area from 2000-2006. Most vegetation classes were estimated as net ecosystem sinks of atmospheric CO2 on annual basis, making the entire study area a moderate net sink of about +0.13 Tg C yr-1. This average sink value for forested lands nonetheless masks the contribution of areas burned during the 1988 wildfires, which were estimated as net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere, totaling to a NEP flux of -0.04 Tg C yr-1 for the entire burned area. Several areas burned in the 1988 wildfires were estimated to be among the lowest in overall yearly NPP, namely the Hellroaring Fire, Mink Fire, and Falls Fire areas. Conclusions Rates of recovery for burned forest areas to pre-1988 biomass levels were estimated from a unique combination of remote sensing and CASA model predictions. Ecosystem production and carbon fluxes in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) result from complex interactions between climate, forest age structure, and disturbance-recovery patterns of the landscape. PMID:21835025
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Potter, Christopher; Klooster, Steven; Crabtree, Robert; Huang, Shengli; Gross, Peggy; Genovese, Vanessa
2011-08-11
A simulation model based on remote sensing data for spatial vegetation properties has been used to estimate ecosystem carbon fluxes across Yellowstone National Park (YNP). The CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model was applied at a regional scale to estimate seasonal and annual carbon fluxes as net primary production (NPP) and soil respiration components. Predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux of CO2 is estimated from the model for carbon sinks and sources over multi-year periods that varied in climate and (wildfire) disturbance histories. Monthly Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) image coverages from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument (from 2000 to 2006) were direct inputs to the model. New map products have been added to CASA from airborne remote sensing of coarse woody debris (CWD) in areas burned by wildfires over the past two decades. Model results indicated that relatively cooler and wetter summer growing seasons were the most favorable for annual plant production and net ecosystem carbon gains in representative landscapes of YNP. When summed across vegetation class areas, the predominance of evergreen forest and shrubland (sagebrush) cover was evident, with these two classes together accounting for 88% of the total annual NPP flux of 2.5 Tg C yr-1 (1 Tg = 1012 g) for the entire Yellowstone study area from 2000-2006. Most vegetation classes were estimated as net ecosystem sinks of atmospheric CO2 on annual basis, making the entire study area a moderate net sink of about +0.13 Tg C yr-1. This average sink value for forested lands nonetheless masks the contribution of areas burned during the 1988 wildfires, which were estimated as net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere, totaling to a NEP flux of -0.04 Tg C yr-1 for the entire burned area. Several areas burned in the 1988 wildfires were estimated to be among the lowest in overall yearly NPP, namely the Hellroaring Fire, Mink Fire, and Falls Fire areas. Rates of recovery for burned forest areas to pre-1988 biomass levels were estimated from a unique combination of remote sensing and CASA model predictions. Ecosystem production and carbon fluxes in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) result from complex interactions between climate, forest age structure, and disturbance-recovery patterns of the landscape.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ito, A.
2005-12-01
Boreal forest is one of the focal areas in the study of global warming and carbon cycle. In this study, a coupled carbon cycle and fire regime model was developed and applied to a larch forest in East Siberia, near Yakutsk. Fire regime is simulated with a cellular automaton (20 km x 20 km), in which fire ignition, propagation, and extinction are parameterized in a stochastic manner, including the effects of fuel accumulation and weather condition. For each grid, carbon cycle is simulated with a 10-box scheme, in which net biome production by photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition, and biomass burning are calculated explicitly. Model parameters were calibrated with field data of biomass, litter stock, and fire statistics; the carbon cycle scheme was examined with flux measurement data. As a result, the model successfully captured average carbon stocks, productivity, fire frequency, and biomass burning. To assess the effects of global warming, a series of simulations were performed using climatic projections based on the IPCC-SRES emission scenarios from 1990 to 2100. The range of uncertainty among the different climate models and emission scenarios was assessed by using multi-model projection data by CCCma, CCSR/NIES, GFDL, and HCCPR corresponding to the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. The model simulations showed that global warming in the 21st century would considerably enhance the fire regime (e.g., cumulative burnt area increased by 80 to 120 percent), leading to larger carbon emission by biomass burning. The effect was so strong that growth enhancement by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and elongated growing period was cancelled out at landscape scale. In many cases, the larch forest was estimated to act as net carbon sources of 2 to 5 kg C m_|2 by the end of the 21st century, underscoring the importance of forest fire monitoring and management in this region.
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Impacts of land-use history on the recovery of ecosystems after agricultural abandonment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Bayer, Anita D.; Lindeskog, Mats; Arneth, Almut
2016-09-01
Land-use changes have been shown to have large effects on climate and biogeochemical cycles, but so far most studies have focused on the effects of conversion of natural vegetation to croplands and pastures. By contrast, relatively little is known about the long-term influence of past agriculture on vegetation regrowth and carbon sequestration following land abandonment. We used the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model to study the legacy effects of different land-use histories (in terms of type and duration) across a range of ecosystems. To this end, we performed six idealized simulations for Europe and Africa in which we made a transition from natural vegetation to either pasture or cropland, followed by a transition back to natural vegetation after 20, 60 or 100 years. The simulations identified substantial differences in recovery trajectories of four key variables (vegetation composition, vegetation carbon, soil carbon, net biome productivity) after agricultural cessation. Vegetation carbon and composition typically recovered faster than soil carbon in subtropical, temperate and boreal regions, and vice versa in the tropics. While the effects of different land-use histories on recovery periods of soil carbon stocks often differed by centuries across our simulations, differences in recovery times across simulations were typically small for net biome productivity (a few decades) and modest for vegetation carbon and composition (several decades). Spatially, we found the greatest sensitivity of recovery times to prior land use in boreal forests and subtropical grasslands, where post-agricultural productivity was strongly affected by prior land management. Our results suggest that land-use history is a relevant factor affecting ecosystems long after agricultural cessation, and it should be considered not only when assessing historical or future changes in simulations of the terrestrial carbon cycle but also when establishing long-term monitoring networks and interpreting data derived therefrom, including analysis of a broad range of ecosystem properties or local climate effects related to land cover changes.
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Status and potential of terrestrial carbon sequestration in West Virginia
Benktesh D. Sharma; Jingxin Wang
2011-01-01
Terrestrial ecosystem management offers cost-effective ways to enhance carbon (C) sequestration. This study utilized C stock and C sequestration in forest and agricultural lands, abandoned mine lands, and harvested wood products to estimate the net current annual C sequestration in West Virginia. Several management options within these components were simulated using a...
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McGuire, A.D.; Sitch, S.; Clein, Joy S.; Dargaville, R.; Esser, G.; Foley, J.; Heimann, Martin; Joos, F.; Kaplan, J.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Meier, R.A.; Melillo, J.M.; Moore, B.; Prentice, I.C.; Ramankutty, N.; Reichenau, T.; Schloss, A.; Tian, H.; Williams, L.J.; Wittenberg, U.
2001-01-01
The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed using a standard simulation protocol with four process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long-term(1920–1992), the simulations yielded a time history of terrestrial uptake that is consistent (within the uncertainty) with a long-term analysis based on ice core and atmospheric CO2 data. Up to 1958, three of four analyses indicated a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere caused by cropland establishment. After 1958, all analyses indicate a net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems, primarily because of the physiological effects of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2. During the 1980s the simulations indicate that terrestrial ecosystems stored between 0.3 and 1.5 Pg C yr−1, which is within the uncertainty of analysis based on CO2 and O2 budgets. Three of the four models indicated (in accordance with O2 evidence) that the tropics were approximately neutral while a net sink existed in ecosystems north of the tropics. Although all of the models agree that the long-term effect of climate on carbon storage has been small relative to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and land use, the models disagree as to whether climate variability and change in the twentieth century has promoted carbon storage or release. Simulated interannual variability from 1958 generally reproduced the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-scale variability in the atmospheric CO2 increase, but there were substantial differences in the magnitude of interannual variability simulated by the models. The analysis of the ability of the models to simulate the changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 suggested that the observed trend may be a consequence of CO2 effects, climate variability, land use changes, or a combination of these effects. The next steps for improving the process-based simulation of historical terrestrial carbon include (1) the transfer of insight gained from stand-level process studies to improve the sensitivity of simulated carbon storage responses to changes in CO2 and climate, (2) improvements in the data sets used to drive the models so that they incorporate the timing, extent, and types of major disturbances, (3) the enhancement of the models so that they consider major crop types and management schemes, (4) development of data sets that identify the spatial extent of major crop types and management schemes through time, and (5) the consideration of the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The evaluation of the performance of the models in the context of a more complete consideration of the factors influencing historical terrestrial carbon dynamics is important for reducing uncertainties in representing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in future projections of the Earth system.
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Combined global change effects on ecosystem processesin nine U.S. topographically complex areas
Hartman, Melannie D.; Baron, Jill S.; Ewing, Holly A.; Weathers, Kathleen
2014-01-01
Concurrent changes in climate, atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, and increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) affect ecosystems in complex ways. The DayCent-Chem model was used to investigate the combined effects of these human-caused drivers of change over the period 1980–2075 at seven forested montane and two alpine watersheds in the United States. Net ecosystem production (NEP) increased linearly with increasing N deposition for six out of seven forested watersheds; warming directly increased NEP at only two of these sites. Warming reduced soil organic carbon storage at all sites by increasing heterotrophic respiration. At most sites, warming together with high N deposition increased nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions enough to negate the greenhouse benefit of soil carbon sequestration alone, though there was a net greenhouse gas sink across nearly all sites mainly due to the effect of CO2 fertilization and associated sequestration by plants. Over the simulation period, an increase in atmospheric CO2 from 350 to 600 ppm was the main driver of change in net ecosystem greenhouse gas sequestration at all forested sites and one of two alpine sites, but an additional increase in CO2 from 600 to 760 ppm produced smaller effects. Warming either increased or decreased net greenhouse gas sequestration, depending on the site. The N contribution to net ecosystem greenhouse gas sequestration averaged across forest sites was only 5–7 % and was negligible for the alpine. Stream nitrate (NO3−) fluxes increased sharply with N-loading, primarily at three watersheds where initial N deposition values were high relative to terrestrial N uptake capacity. The simulated results displayed fewer synergistic responses to warming, N-loading, and CO2 fertilization than expected. Overall, simulations with DayCent-Chem suggest individual site characteristics and historical patterns of N deposition are important determinants of forest or alpine ecosystem responses to global change.
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Soil Biogeochemistry in the Ent DGVM
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kharecha, P. A.; Kiang, N. Y.; Aleinov, I.; Moorcroft, P.; Koster, R.
2007-12-01
As the global climate continues to warm in the 21st century, it will be vital to assess the degree of carbon cycle feedbacks from the terrestrial biosphere, particularly the soil. Global soil carbon stocks, which amount to approximately double the carbon stored in vegetation, could provide either positive or negative climate feedbacks, depending on a given ecosystem's response to warming. To predict changes in net terrestrial CO2 fluxes and belowground organic carbon storage, we have developed and evaluated a soil biogeochemistry submodel for the Ent dynamic global vegetation model currently being tested within the GISS GCM. It is a modified version of the soil submodel in the CASA biosphere model (Potter et al., Glob. Biogeoch. Cyc. 7, 1993). We have enhanced it to allow for explicit depth structure (2 soil layers, 0-30 cm and 30-100 cm), first-order inter-layer (vertical) soil organic carbon transport, and a variable-Q10 temperature dependence for soil microbial respiration. We have tested the soil model in numerous offline runs. To spin up the simulated carbon pools offline, we conducted multi-century runs using meteorological and ecological data from various FLUXNET field sites that represent 7 of the 8 GISS GCM plant functional types: tundra, grassland, shrubland, savanna, deciduous forest, evergreen needleleaf forest, and tropical rainforest (the eighth, cropland, will be dealt with in a separate study). We then compare the magnitudes of the simulated spun-up soil pools to soil carbon stock data from these field sites as well as the biome-aggregated data from Post et al. (Nature 317, 1985). Net ecosystem CO2 fluxes and soil respiration are also compared to site-specific measurements where available. Preliminary results suggest that simulated fluxes are reasonably close to measured values, but simulated carbon storage tends to be lower than the measurements. In addition to site-specific comparisons, we discuss the broader implications of our results, e.g., the effects of including explicit depth structure and inter-layer soil carbon transport on simulated soil respiration, carbon storage, and estimation of the global carbon budget.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Li, Fang; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Levis, Samuel
Fire is the primary terrestrial ecosystem disturbance agent on a global scale. It affects carbon balance of global terrestrial ecosystems by emitting carbon to atmosphere directly and immediately from biomass burning (i.e., fire direct effect), and by changing net ecosystem productivity and land-use carbon loss in post-fire regions due to biomass burning and fire-induced vegetation mortality (i.e., fire indirect effect). Here, we provide the first quantitative assessment about the impact of fire on the net carbon balance of global terrestrial ecosystems for the 20th century, and investigate the roles of fire direct and indirect effects. This study is done bymore » quantifying the difference between the 20th century fire-on and fire-off simulations with NCAR community land model CLM4.5 as the model platform. Results show that fire decreases net carbon gain of the global terrestrial ecosystems by 1.0 Pg C yr-1 average across the 20th century, as a results of fire direct effect (1.9 Pg C yr-1) partly offset by indirect effect (-0.9 Pg C yr-1). Fire generally decreases the average carbon gains of terrestrial ecosystems in post-fire regions, which are significant over tropical savannas and part of forests in North America and the east of Asia. The general decrease of carbon gains in post-fire regions is because fire direct and indirect effects have similar spatial patterns and the former (to decrease carbon gain) is generally stronger. Moreover, the effect of fire on net carbon balance significantly declines prior to ~1970 with trend of 8 Tg C yr-1 due to increasing fire indirect effect and increases afterward with trend of 18 Tg C yr-1 due to increasing fire direct effect.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Mote, P.; Sparrow, S.; Massey, N.
2016-12-01
The forests of western North America serve as a carbon sink sequestering carbon and slowing the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere. Though still positive, the rate of net carbon uptake has been in decline over the past two decades. Regional drought has been shown to slow forest productivity and net carbon uptake despite warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons. With drought conditions projected to increase in frequency and severity under climate change there is concern that these forests' capacity as an effective carbon sink will continue to decrease in the future. To investigate how changes in regional hydroclimate may affect future carbon uptake in western US forests we dynamically downscaled global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3P with the land surface scheme MOSES2. We generated a 100-member ensemble of simulations for an historical period (1985-2015) and mid-21st century period (2030-2060) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. We evaluated the effects of regional changes in atmospheric moisture demand, seasonality of water supply, and water stress on forest productivity and carbon uptake. We investigated how these changes in hydroclimate interact with the relaxing of temperature controls. This work can inform future adaptation efforts through improving our understanding of climatic controls on forest carbon sequestration.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lokupitiya, E. Y.; Denning, A.
2010-12-01
Croplands are unique, man-made ecosystems with dynamics mostly dependent on human decisions. Crops uptake a significant amount of Carbon dioxide (CO2) during their short growing seasons. Reliability of the available models to predict the carbon exchanges by croplands is important in estimating the cropland contribution towards overall land-atmosphere carbon exchange and global carbon cycle. The energy exchanges from croplands include both sensible and latent heat fluxes. This study focuses on analyzing the performance of 19 land surface models across five agricultural sites under the site-level interim synthesis of North American Carbon Program (NACP). Model simulations were performed using a common simulation protocol and input data, including gap-filled meteorological data corresponding to each site. The net carbon fluxes (i.e. net ecosystem exchange; NEE) and energy fluxes (sensible and latent heat) predicted by 12 models with sub-hourly/hourly temporal resolution and 7 models with daily temporal resolution were compared against the site-specific gap-filled observed flux tower data. Comparisons were made by site and crop type (i.e. maize, soybean, and wheat), mainly focusing on the coefficient of determination, correlation, root mean square error, and standard deviation. Analyses also compared the diurnal, seasonal, and inter-annual variability of the modeled fluxes against the observed data and the mean modeled data.
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Simulating the effects of fire disturbance and vegetation recovery on boreal ecosystem carbon fluxes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yi, Y.; Kimball, J. S.; Jones, L. A.; Zhao, M.
2011-12-01
Fire related disturbance and subsequent vegetation recovery has a major influence on carbon storage and land-atmosphere CO2 fluxes in boreal ecosystems. We applied a synthetic approach combining tower eddy covariance flux measurements, satellite remote sensing and model reanalysis surface meteorology within a terrestrial carbon model framework to estimate fire disturbance and recovery effects on boreal ecosystem carbon fluxes including gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration and net CO2 exchange (NEE). A disturbance index based on MODIS land surface temperature and NDVI was found to coincide with vegetation recovery status inferred from tower chronosequence sites. An empirical algorithm was developed to track ecosystem recovery status based on the disturbance index and used to nudge modeled net primary production (NPP) and surface soil organic carbon stocks from baseline steady-state conditions. The simulations were conducted using a satellite based terrestrial carbon flux model driven by MODIS NDVI and MERRA reanalysis daily surface meteorology inputs. The MODIS (MCD45) burned area product was then applied for mapping recent (post 2000) regional disturbance history, and used with the disturbance index to define vegetation disturbance and recovery status. The model was then applied to estimate regional patterns and temporal changes in terrestrial carbon fluxes across the entire northern boreal forest and tundra domain. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the relative importance of fire disturbance and recovery on regional carbon fluxes relative to assumed steady-state conditions. The explicit representation of disturbance and recovery effects produces more accurate NEE predictions than the baseline steady-state simulations and reduces uncertainty regarding the purported missing carbon sink in the high latitudes.
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Chun-Tai. Lai; G. Katul; J. Butnor; M. Siqueira; D. Ellsworth; C. Maier; Kurt Johnsen; S. Mickeand; R. Oren
2002-01-01
Using a combination of model simulations and detailed measurements at a hierarchy of scales conducted at a sandhills forest site, the effect of fertilization on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and its components in 6-year-old Pinus taeda stands was quantified. The detailed measurements, collected over a 20-d period in September and October, included gas...
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The greenhouse gas balance of European grasslands.
Chang, Jinfeng; Ciais, Philippe; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Sultan, Benjamin; Soussana, Jean-François
2015-10-01
The greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of European grasslands (EU-28 plus Norway and Switzerland), including CO2 , CH4 and N2 O, is estimated using the new process-based biogeochemical model ORCHIDEE-GM over the period 1961-2010. The model includes the following: (1) a mechanistic representation of the spatial distribution of management practice; (2) management intensity, going from intensively to extensively managed; (3) gridded simulation of the carbon balance at ecosystem and farm scale; and (4) gridded simulation of N2 O and CH4 emissions by fertilized grassland soils and livestock. The external drivers of the model are changing animal numbers, nitrogen fertilization and deposition, land-use change, and variable CO2 and climate. The carbon balance of European grassland (NBP) is estimated to be a net sink of 15 ± 7 g C m(-2 ) year(-1) during 1961-2010, equivalent to a 50-year continental cumulative soil carbon sequestration of 1.0 ± 0.4 Pg C. At the farm scale, which includes both ecosystem CO2 fluxes and CO2 emissions from the digestion of harvested forage, the net C balance is roughly halved, down to a small sink, or nearly neutral flux of 8 g C m(-2 ) year(-1) . Adding CH4 and N2 O emissions to net ecosystem exchange to define the ecosystem-scale GHG balance, we found that grasslands remain a net GHG sink of 19 ± 10 g C-CO2 equiv. m(-2 ) year(-1) , because the CO2 sink offsets N2 O and grazing animal CH4 emissions. However, when considering the farm scale, the GHG balance (NGB) becomes a net GHG source of -50 g C-CO2 equiv. m(-2 ) year(-1) . ORCHIDEE-GM simulated an increase in European grassland NBP during the last five decades. This enhanced NBP reflects the combination of a positive trend of net primary production due to CO2 , climate and nitrogen fertilization and the diminishing requirement for grass forage due to the Europe-wide reduction in livestock numbers. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gao, Zhiqiang; Cao, Xiaoming; Gao, Wei
2013-03-01
This paper represents the first national effort of its kind to systematically investigate the impact of changes in climate and land use and land cover (LULC) on the carbon cycle with high-resolution dynamic LULC data at the decadal scale (1990s and 2000s). Based on simulations using well calibrated and validated Carbon Exchanges in the Vegetation-Soil-Atmosphere (CEVSA) model, temporal and spatial variations in carbon storage and fluxes in China may be generated empower us to relate these variations to climate variability and LULC with respect to net primary productivity (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (HR), net ecosystem productivity (NEP), storage and soil carbon (SOC), and vegetation carbon (VEGC) individually or collectively. Overall, the increases in NPP were greater than HR in most cases due to the effect of global warming with more precipitation in China from 1981 to 2000. With this trend, the NEP remained positive during that period, resulting in a net increase of total amount of carbon being stored by about 0.296 PgC within a 20-year time frame. Because the climate effect was much greater than that of changes of LULC, the total carbon storage in China actually increased by about 0.17 PgC within the 20-year time period. Such findings will contribute to the generation of carbon emissions control policies under global climate change impacts.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Yue; Yang, Hui; Wang, Tao; MacBean, Natasha; Bacour, Cédric; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yiping; Zhou, Guangsheng; Piao, Shilong
2017-08-01
Reducing parameter uncertainty of process-based terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) is one of the primary targets for accurately estimating carbon budgets and predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. However, parameters in TEMs are rarely constrained by observations from Chinese forest ecosystems, which are important carbon sink over the northern hemispheric land. In this study, eddy covariance data from six forest sites in China are used to optimize parameters of the ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamics EcosystEms TEM. The model-data assimilation through parameter optimization largely reduces the prior model errors and improves the simulated seasonal cycle and summer diurnal cycle of net ecosystem exchange, latent heat fluxes, and gross primary production and ecosystem respiration. Climate change experiments based on the optimized model are deployed to indicate that forest net primary production (NPP) is suppressed in response to warming in the southern China but stimulated in the northeastern China. Altered precipitation has an asymmetric impact on forest NPP at sites in water-limited regions, with the optimization-induced reduction in response of NPP to precipitation decline being as large as 61% at a deciduous broadleaf forest site. We find that seasonal optimization alters forest carbon cycle responses to environmental change, with the parameter optimization consistently reducing the simulated positive response of heterotrophic respiration to warming. Evaluations from independent observations suggest that improving model structure still matters most for long-term carbon stock and its changes, in particular, nutrient- and age-related changes of photosynthetic rates, carbon allocation, and tree mortality.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ju, Weimin; Chen, Jing M.; Black, T. Andrew; Barr, Alan G.; McCaughey, Harry
2010-07-01
The variations of soil water content (SWC) and its influences on the carbon (C) cycle in Canada's forests and wetlands were studied through model simulations using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon (InTEC) model. It shows that Canada's forests and wetlands experienced spatially and temporally heterogeneous changes in SWC from 1901 to 2000. SWC changes caused average NPP to decrease 40.8 Tg C yr-1 from 1901 to 2000, whereas the integrated effect of non-disturbance factors (climate change, CO2 fertilization and N deposition) enhanced NPP by 9.9%. During 1981-2000, the reduction of NPP caused by changes in SWC was 58.1 Tg C yr-1 whereas non-disturbance factors together caused NPP to increase by 16.6%. SWC changes resulted in an average increase of 4.1 Tg C yr-1 in the net C uptake during 1901-2000, relatively small compared with the enhancement in C uptake of 50.2 Tg C yr-1 by the integrated effect of non-disturbance factors. During 1981-2000, changes in SWC caused a reduction of 3.8 Tg C yr-1 in net C sequestration whereas the integrated factors increased net C sequestration by 54.1 Tg C yr-1. Increase in SWC enhanced C sequestration in all ecozones.
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McGuire, David A.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Pan, Y.; Xiao, X.; Helfrich, J.; Moore, B.; Vorosmarty, C.J.; Schloss, A.L.
1997-01-01
We ran the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM) for the globe at 0.5?? resolution for atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 340 and 680 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to evaluate global and regional responses of net primary production (NPP) and carbon storage to elevated CO2 for their sensitivity to changes in vegetation nitrogen concentration. At 340 ppmv, TEM estimated global NPP of 49.0 1015 g (Pg) C yr-1 and global total carbon storage of 1701.8 Pg C; the estimate of total carbon storage does not include the carbon content of inert soil organic matter. For the reference simulation in which doubled atmospheric CO2 was accompanied with no change in vegetation nitrogen concentration, global NPP increased 4.1 Pg C yr-1 (8.3%), and global total carbon storage increased 114.2 Pg C. To examine sensitivity in the global responses of NPP and carbon storage to decreases in the nitrogen concentration of vegetation, we compared doubled CO2 responses of the reference TEM to simulations in which the vegetation nitrogen concentration was reduced without influencing decomposition dynamics ("lower N" simulations) and to simulations in which reductions in vegetation nitrogen concentration influence decomposition dynamics ("lower N+D" simulations). We conducted three lower N simulations and three lower N+D simulations in which we reduced the nitrogen concentration of vegetation by 7,5, 15.0, and 22.5%. In the lower N simulations, the response of global NPP to doubled atmospheric CO2 increased approximately 2 Pg C yr-1 for each incremental 7.5% reduction in vegetation nitrogen concentration, and vegetation carbon increased approximately an additional 40 Pg C, and soil carbon increased an additional 30 Pg C, for a total carbon storage increase of approximately 70 Pg C. In the lower N+D simulations, the responses of NPP and vegetation carbon storage were relatively insensitive to differences in the reduction of nitrogen concentration, but soil carbon storage showed a large change. The insensitivity of NPP in the N+D simulations occurred because potential enhancements in NPP associated with reduced vegetation nitrogen concentration were approximately offset by lower nitrogen availability associated with the decomposition dynamics of reduced litter nitrogen concentration. For each 7.5% reduction in vegetation nitrogen concentration, soil carbon increased approximately an additional 60 Pg C, while vegetation carbon storage increased by only approximately 5 Pg C. As the reduction in vegetation nitrogen concentration gets greater in the lower N+D simulations, more of the additional carbon storage tends to become concentrated in the north temperateboreal region in comparison to the tropics. Other studies with TEM show that elevated CO2 more than offsets the effects of climate change to cause increased carbon storage. The results of this study indicate that carbon storage would be enhanced by the influence of changes in plant nitrogen concentration on carbon assimilation and decomposition rates. Thus changes in vegetation nitrogen concentration may have important implications for the ability of the terrestrial biosphere to mitigate increases in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 and climate changes associated with the increases.
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Falter, James L.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Zhang, Zhenlin; McCulloch, Malcolm
2013-01-01
We present a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model of a wave-driven coral-reef lagoon system using the circulation model ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled with the wave transformation model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore). Simulations were used to explore the sensitivity of water column carbonate chemistry across the reef system to variations in benthic reef metabolism, wave forcing, sea level, and system geomorphology. Our results show that changes in reef-water carbonate chemistry depend primarily on the ratio of benthic metabolism to the square root of the onshore wave energy flux as well as on the length and depth of the reef flat; however, they are only weakly dependent on channel geometry and the total frictional resistance of the reef system. Diurnal variations in pCO2, pH, and aragonite saturation state (Ωar) are primarily dependent on changes in net production and are relatively insensitive to changes in net calcification; however, net changes in pCO2, pH, and Ωar are more strongly influenced by net calcification when averaged over 24 hours. We also demonstrate that a relatively simple one-dimensional analytical model can provide a good description of the functional dependence of reef-water carbonate chemistry on benthic metabolism, wave forcing, sea level, reef flat morphology, and total system frictional resistance. Importantly, our results indicate that any long-term (weeks to months) net offsets in reef-water pCO2 relative to offshore values should be modest for reef systems with narrow and/or deep lagoons. Thus, the long-term evolution of water column pCO2 in many reef environments remains intimately connected to the regional-scale oceanography of offshore waters and hence directly influenced by rapid anthropogenically driven increases in pCO2. PMID:23326411
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Falter, James L; Lowe, Ryan J; Zhang, Zhenlin; McCulloch, Malcolm
2013-01-01
We present a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model of a wave-driven coral-reef lagoon system using the circulation model ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled with the wave transformation model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore). Simulations were used to explore the sensitivity of water column carbonate chemistry across the reef system to variations in benthic reef metabolism, wave forcing, sea level, and system geomorphology. Our results show that changes in reef-water carbonate chemistry depend primarily on the ratio of benthic metabolism to the square root of the onshore wave energy flux as well as on the length and depth of the reef flat; however, they are only weakly dependent on channel geometry and the total frictional resistance of the reef system. Diurnal variations in pCO(2), pH, and aragonite saturation state (Ω(ar)) are primarily dependent on changes in net production and are relatively insensitive to changes in net calcification; however, net changes in pCO(2), pH, and Ω(ar) are more strongly influenced by net calcification when averaged over 24 hours. We also demonstrate that a relatively simple one-dimensional analytical model can provide a good description of the functional dependence of reef-water carbonate chemistry on benthic metabolism, wave forcing, sea level, reef flat morphology, and total system frictional resistance. Importantly, our results indicate that any long-term (weeks to months) net offsets in reef-water pCO(2) relative to offshore values should be modest for reef systems with narrow and/or deep lagoons. Thus, the long-term evolution of water column pCO(2) in many reef environments remains intimately connected to the regional-scale oceanography of offshore waters and hence directly influenced by rapid anthropogenically driven increases in pCO(2).
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Mousong; Sholze, Marko
2017-04-01
We investigated the importance of soil moisture data on assimilation of a terrestrial biosphere model (BETHY) for a long time period from 2010 to 2015. Totally, 101 parameters related to carbon turnover, soil respiration, as well as soil texture were selected for optimization within a carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS). Soil moisture data from Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) product was derived for 10 sites representing different plant function types (PFTs) as well as different climate zones. Uncertainty of SMOS soil moisture data was also estimated using triple collocation analysis (TCA) method by comparing with ASCAT dataset and BETHY forward simulation results. Assimilation of soil moisture to the system improved soil moisture as well as net primary productivity(NPP) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) when compared with soil moisture derived from in-situ measurements and fluxnet datasets. Parameter uncertainties were largely reduced relatively to prior values. Using SMOS soil moisture data for assimilation of a terrestrial biosphere model proved to be an efficient approach in reducing uncertainty in ecosystem fluxes simulation. It could be further used in regional an global assimilation work to constrain carbon dioxide concentration simulation by combining with other sources of measurements.
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Steppe, Kathy; von der Crone, Jonas S; De Pauw, Dirk J W
2016-01-01
TreeWatch.net is an initiative that has been developed to watch trees grow and function in real-time. It is a water- and carbon-monitoring and modeling network, in which high-quality measurements of sap flow and stem diameter variation are collected on individual trees. Automated data processing using a cloud service enables instant visualization of water movement and radial stem growth. This can be used to demonstrate the sensitivity of trees to changing weather conditions, such as drought, heat waves, or heavy rain showers. But TreeWatch.net's true innovation lies in its use of these high-precision harmonized data to also parameterize process-based tree models in real-time, which makes displaying the much-needed mechanisms underlying tree responses to climate change possible. Continuous simulation of turgor to describe growth processes and long-term time series of hydraulic resistance to assess drought-vulnerability in real-time are only a few of the opportunities our approach offers. TreeWatch.net has been developed with the view to be complementary to existing forest monitoring networks and with the aim to contribute to existing dynamic global vegetation models. It provides high-quality data and real-time simulations in order to advance research on the impact of climate change on the biological response of trees and forests. Besides its application in natural forests to answer climate-change related scientific and political questions, we also envision a broader societal application of TreeWatch.net by selecting trees in nature reserves, public areas, cities, university areas, schoolyards, and parks to teach youngsters and create public awareness on the effects of changing weather conditions on trees and forests in this era of climate change.
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He, Li-hong; Wang, Hai-yan; Lei, Xiang-dong
2016-02-01
Model based on vegetation ecophysiological process contains many parameters, and reasonable parameter values will greatly improve simulation ability. Sensitivity analysis, as an important method to screen out the sensitive parameters, can comprehensively analyze how model parameters affect the simulation results. In this paper, we conducted parameter sensitivity analysis of BIOME-BGC model with a case study of simulating net primary productivity (NPP) of Larix olgensis forest in Wangqing, Jilin Province. First, with the contrastive analysis between field measurement data and the simulation results, we tested the BIOME-BGC model' s capability of simulating the NPP of L. olgensis forest. Then, Morris and EFAST sensitivity methods were used to screen the sensitive parameters that had strong influence on NPP. On this basis, we also quantitatively estimated the sensitivity of the screened parameters, and calculated the global, the first-order and the second-order sensitivity indices. The results showed that the BIOME-BGC model could well simulate the NPP of L. olgensis forest in the sample plot. The Morris sensitivity method provided a reliable parameter sensitivity analysis result under the condition of a relatively small sample size. The EFAST sensitivity method could quantitatively measure the impact of simulation result of a single parameter as well as the interaction between the parameters in BIOME-BGC model. The influential sensitive parameters for L. olgensis forest NPP were new stem carbon to new leaf carbon allocation and leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio, the effect of their interaction was significantly greater than the other parameter' teraction effect.
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Net emissions of CH4 and CO2 in Alaska: Implications for the region's greenhouse gas budget
Zhuang, Q.; Melillo, J.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Prinn, R.G.; Steudler, P.A.; Felzer, B.S.; Hu, S.
2007-01-01
We used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to study the net methane (CH4) fluxes between Alaskan ecosystems and the atmosphere. We estimated that the current net emissions of CH4 (emissions minus consumption) from Alaskan soils are ???3 Tg CH 4/yr. Wet tundra ecosystems are responsible for 75% of the region's net emissions, while dry tundra and upland boreal forests are responsible for 50% and 45% of total consumption over the region, respectively. In response to climate change over the 21st century, our simulations indicated that CH 4 emissions from wet soils would be enhanced more than consumption by dry soils of tundra and boreal forests. As a consequence, we projected that net CH4 emissions will almost double by the end of the century in response to high-latitude warming and associated climate changes. When we placed these CH4 emissions in the context of the projected carbon budget (carbon dioxide [CO2] and CH4) for Alaska at the end of the 21st century, we estimated that Alaska will be a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere of 69 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr, that is, a balance between net methane emissions of 131 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr and carbon sequestration of 17 Tg C/yr (62 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr). ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.
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Kicklighter, D.W.; Bruno, M.; Donges, S.; Esser, G.; Heimann, Martin; Helfrich, J.; Ift, F.; Joos, F.; Kaduk, J.; Kohlmaier, G.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Melillo, J.M.; Meyer, R.; Moore, B.; Nadler, A.; Prentice, I.C.; Sauf, W.; Schloss, A.L.; Sitch, S.; Wittenberg, U.; Wurth, G.
1999-01-01
We compared the simulated responses of net primary production, heterotrophic respiration, net ecosystem production and carbon storage in natural terrestrial ecosystems to historical (1765 to 1990) and projected (1990 to 2300) changes of atmospheric CO2 concentration of four terrestrial biosphere models: the Bern model, the Frankfurt Biosphere Model (FBM), the High-Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM) and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). The results of the model intercomparison suggest that CO2 fertilization of natural terrestrial vegetation has the potential to account for a large fraction of the so-called 'missing carbon sink' of 2.0 Pg C in 1990. Estimates of this potential are reduced when the models incorporate the concept that CO2 fertilization can be limited by nutrient availability. Although the model estimates differ on the potential size (126 to 461 Pg C) of the future terrestrial sink caused by CO2 fertilization, the results of the four models suggest that natural terrestrial ecosystems will have a limited capacity to act as a sink of atmospheric CO2 in the future as a result of physiological constraints and nutrient constraints on NPP. All the spatially explicit models estimate a carbon sink in both tropical and northern temperate regions, but the strength of these sinks varies over time. Differences in the simulated response of terrestrial ecosystems to CO2 fertilization among the models in this intercomparison study reflect the fact that the models have highlighted different aspects of the effect of CO2 fertilization on carbon dynamics of natural terrestrial ecosystems including feedback mechanisms. As interactions with nitrogen fertilization, climate change and forest regrowth may play an important role in simulating the response of terrestrial ecosystems to CO2 fertilization, these factors should be included in future analyses. Improvements in spatially explicit data sets, whole-ecosystems experiments and the availability of net carbon exchange measurements across the globe will also help to improve future evaluations of the role of CO2 fertilization on terrestrial carbon storage.
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Modeling the grazing effect on dry grassland carbon cycling with modified Biome-BGC grazing model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Luo, Geping; Han, Qifei; Li, Chaofan; Yang, Liao
2014-05-01
Identifying the factors that determine the carbon source/sink strength of ecosystems is important for reducing uncertainty in the global carbon cycle. Arid grassland ecosystems are a widely distributed biome type in Xinjiang, Northwest China, covering approximately one-fourth the country's land surface. These grasslands are the habitat for many endemic and rare plant and animal species and are also used as pastoral land for livestock. Using the modified Biome-BGC grazing model, we modeled carbon dynamics in Xinjiang for grasslands that varied in grazing intensity. In general, this regional simulation estimated that the grassland ecosystems in Xinjiang acted as a net carbon source, with a value of 0.38 Pg C over the period 1979-2007. There were significant effects of grazing on carbon dynamics. An over-compensatory effect in net primary productivity (NPP) and vegetation carbon (C) stock was observed when grazing intensity was lower than 0.40 head/ha. Grazing resulted in a net carbon source of 23.45 g C m-2 yr-1, which equaled 0.37 Pg in Xinjiang in the last 29 years. In general, grazing decreased vegetation C stock, while an increasing trend was observed with low grazing intensity. The soil C increased significantly (17%) with long-term grazing, while the soil C stock exhibited a steady trend without grazing. These findings have implications for grassland ecosystem management as it relates to carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation, e.g., removal of grazing should be considered in strategies that aim to increase terrestrial carbon sequestrations at local and regional scales. One of the greatest limitations in quantifying the effects of herbivores on carbon cycling is identifying the grazing systems and intensities within a given region. We hope our study emphasizes the need for large-scale assessments of how grazing impacts carbon cycling. Most terrestrial ecosystems in Xinjiang have been affected by disturbances to a greater or lesser extent in the past several decades (e.g., land-use change, timber exploitation, and air pollution). However, regional evaluations that account for all of the local disturbances have been difficult. Data from field measurements play a pivotal role in comparing model simulations with observations.
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Response of salt-marsh carbon accumulation to climate change.
Kirwan, Matthew L; Mudd, Simon M
2012-09-27
About half of annual marine carbon burial takes place in shallow water ecosystems where geomorphic and ecological stability is driven by interactions between the flow of water, vegetation growth and sediment transport. Although the sensitivity of terrestrial and deep marine carbon pools to climate change has been studied for decades, there is little understanding of how coastal carbon accumulation rates will change and potentially feed back on climate. Here we develop a numerical model of salt marsh evolution, informed by recent measurements of productivity and decomposition, and demonstrate that competition between mineral sediment deposition and organic-matter accumulation determines the net impact of climate change on carbon accumulation in intertidal wetlands. We find that the direct impact of warming on soil carbon accumulation rates is more subtle than the impact of warming-driven sea level rise, although the impact of warming increases with increasing rates of sea level rise. Our simulations suggest that the net impact of climate change will be to increase carbon burial rates in the first half of the twenty-first century, but that carbon-climate feedbacks are likely to diminish over time.
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Drivers of the Seasonal Carbon Cycle in the Coastal Gulf of Alaska
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pilcher, D.; Siedlecki, S. A.; Hermann, A. J.; Coyle, K. O.; Mathis, J. T.
2016-02-01
The Coastal Gulf of Alaska serves as a significant carbon sink annually, but varies seasonally from net carbon efflux in winter, to net carbon uptake from spring through fall. This significant uptake of anthropogenic CO2 combined with the naturally cold, low calcium carbonate surface waters is expected to accelerate ocean acidification. Observational evidence has already detected subsurface aragonite undersaturation, likely resulting from carbon remineralization of sinking organic matter. Other processes such as storm-induced vertical mixing, glacial runoff, temperature change, and nutrient supply can further modify the carbon cycle. Improving knowledge of these seasonal processes is critical for the region's fisheries that provide substantial ecosystem services and can be adversely impacted by sub-optimal aragonite saturation conditions. We use a regional model of the Coastal Gulf of Alaska coupled to an ecosystem model with full carbonate chemistry to investigate the physical and biogeochemical mechanisms that drive the seasonal carbon cycle. Boundary conditions are set from the coarser Northeast Pacific model, with alkalinity and carbon concentrations determined from empirical relationships with salinity. Model output from a 2009 hindcast simulation is compared to observations of alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations for model verification and to elucidate seasonal mechanisms.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fang, F. J.
2017-12-01
Reconciling observations at fundamentally different scales is central in understanding the global carbon cycle. This study investigates a model-based melding of forest inventory data, remote-sensing data and micrometeorological-station data ("flux towers" estimating forest heat, CO2 and H2O fluxes). The individual tree-based model FORCCHN was used to evaluate the tree DBH increment and forest carbon fluxes. These are the first simultaneous simulations of the forest carbon budgets from flux towers and individual-tree growth estimates of forest carbon budgets using the continuous forest inventory data — under circumstances in which both predictions can be tested. Along with the global implications of such findings, this also improves the capacity for forest sustainable management and the comprehensive understanding of forest ecosystems. In forest ecology, diameter at breast height (DBH) of a tree significantly determines an individual tree's cross-sectional sapwood area, its biomass and carbon storage. Evaluation the annual DBH increment (ΔDBH) of an individual tree is central to understanding tree growth and forest ecology. Ecosystem Carbon flux is a consequence of key ecosystem processes in the forest-ecosystem carbon cycle, Gross and Net Primary Production (GPP and NPP, respectively) and Net Ecosystem Respiration (NEP). All of these closely relate with tree DBH changes and tree death. Despite advances in evaluating forest carbon fluxes with flux towers and forest inventories for individual tree ΔDBH, few current ecological models can simultaneously quantify and predict the tree ΔDBH and forest carbon flux.
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Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sasai, T.; Murakami, K.; Kato, S.; Matsunaga, T.; Saigusa, N.; Hiraki, K.
2015-12-01
Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern in land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. However, most studies, which aimed at the estimation of carbon exchanges between ecosystem and atmosphere, remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. In this study, we show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. As methodology for computing the exchanges, we 1) developed a global 1km-grid climate and satellite dataset based on the approach in Setoyama and Sasai (2013); 2) used the satellite-driven biosphere model (Biosphere model integrating Eco-physiological And Mechanistic approaches using Satellite data: BEAMS) (Sasai et al., 2005, 2007, 2011); 3) simulated the carbon exchanges by using the new dataset and BEAMS by the use of a supercomputer that includes 1280 CPU and 320 GPGPU cores (GOSAT RCF of NIES). As a result, we could develop a global uniform system for realistically estimating terrestrial carbon exchange, and evaluate net ecosystem production in each community level; leading to obtain highly detailed understanding of terrestrial carbon exchanges.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Basile, S.; Keppel-Aleks, G.
2016-12-01
Carbon cycling and water fluxes are connected over land. Understanding the current sensitivity of tropical ecosystems to climate drivers, such as precipitation, at short timescales is important for projecting future trends in the land sink of anthropogenic CO2. Several recent studies have shown that interannual droughts in 2005 and 2010 reduced net carbon uptake in the Amazon rainforest. In 2011 Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions, especially Australian ecosystems, were found to largely contribute to the above average increase in the land carbon sink following consecutive wet seasons under La Nina conditions. Earth system models (ESMs) are able to simulate these sensitivities with varying degrees of fidelity, and ESMs also show a wide range of changes in precipitation phasing and intensity by 2100. Unsurprisingly, model projections of the land carbon sink also vary widely, with some simulations showing land becoming a CO2 source to the atmosphere. To constrain projections of the tropical land carbon balance among an ensemble of ESMs, we analyzed seasonal and interannual precipitation-carbon relationships in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ESMs for the period from 1982-2006. The sensitivity of net biospheric production on land (NBP) to precipitation was quantified on seasonal and annual timescales, and NBP was spatially correlated to precipitation across tropical and subtropical regions (+/- 30 degrees) within humid and semi-arid ecosystems. This analysis was expanded to soil moisture and drought metrics were used to distinguish between wet and dry seasons. Large scale precipitation was used to resolve Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) movement and convective precipitation was used to diagnose the short-term NBP response within the wet season. Results revealed a spread in NBP sensitivity to precipitation intensity as well as how individual models simulated precipitation phasing across different tropical regions.
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Stubler, Amber D; Furman, Bradley T; Peterson, Bradley J
2015-11-01
Ocean acidification will disproportionately impact the growth of calcifying organisms in coral reef ecosystems. Simultaneously, sponge bioerosion rates have been shown to increase as seawater pH decreases. We conducted a 20-week experiment that included a 4-week acclimation period with a high number of replicate tanks and a fully orthogonal design with two levels of temperature (ambient and +1 °C), three levels of pH (8.1, 7.8, and 7.6), and two levels of boring sponge (Cliona varians, present and absent) to account for differences in sponge attachment and carbonate change for both living and dead coral substrate (Porites furcata). Net coral calcification, net dissolution/bioerosion, coral and sponge survival, sponge attachment, and sponge symbiont health were evaluated. Additionally, we used the empirical data from the experiment to develop a stochastic simulation of carbonate change for small coral clusters (i.e., simulated reefs). Our findings suggest differential impacts of temperature, pH and sponge presence for living and dead corals. Net coral calcification (mg CaCO3 cm(-2) day(-1) ) was significantly reduced in treatments with increased temperature (+1 °C) and when sponges were present; acidification had no significant effect on coral calcification. Net dissolution of dead coral was primarily driven by pH, regardless of sponge presence or seawater temperature. A reevaluation of the current paradigm of coral carbonate change under future acidification and warming scenarios should include ecologically relevant timescales, species interactions, and community organization to more accurately predict ecosystem-level response to future conditions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Consequences of simulating terrestrial N dynamics for projecting future terrestrial C storage
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zaehle, S.; Friend, A. D.; Friedlingstein, P.
2009-04-01
We present results of a new land surface model, O-CN, which includes a process-based coupling between the terrestrial cycling of energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen. The model represents the controls of the terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling on carbon (C) pools and fluxes through photosynthesis, respiration, changes in allocation patterns, as well as soil organic matter decomposition, and explicitly accounts for N leaching and gaseous losses. O-CN has been shown to give realistic results in comparison to observations at a wide range of scales, including in situ flux measurements, productivity databases, and atmospheric CO2 concentration data. Notably, O-CN simulates realistic responses of net primary productivity, foliage area, and foliage N content to elevated atmospheric [CO2] as evidenced at free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) sites (Duke, Oak Ridge). We re-examine earlier model-based assessments of the terrestrial C sequestration potential using a global transient O-CN simulation driven by increases in atmospheric [CO2], N deposition and climatic changes over the 21st century. We find that accounting for terrestrial N cycling about halves the potential to store C in response to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations; mainly due to a reduction of the net C uptake in temperate and boreal forests. Nitrogen deposition partially alleviates the effect of N limitation, but is by far not sufficient to compensate for the effect completely. These findings underline the importance of an accurate representation of nutrient limitations in future projections of the terrestrial net CO2 exchanges and therefore land-climate feedback studies.
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Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across northern Eurasia
Rawlins, M.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Kimball, J.S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; Peng, S.; Rinke, A.; Saito, K.; Zhang, W.; Alkama, R.; Bohn, T. J.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Gouttevin, I.; Hajima, T.; Ji, D.; Krinner, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Miller, P.; Moore, J.C.; Smith, B.; Sueyoshi, T.
2015-01-01
A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m−2 yr−2, equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model elements controlling vegetation productivity and soil respiration as being needed for reducing uncertainty in land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. These advances will require collection of new field data on vegetation and soil dynamics, the development of benchmarking data sets from measurements and remote-sensing observations, and investments in future model development and intercomparison studies.
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Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO 2 exchange across Northern Eurasia
Rawlins, M. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Kimball, J. S.; ...
2015-07-28
A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO 2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climatemore » model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO 2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m⁻² yr⁻², equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO 2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO 2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model elements controlling vegetation productivity and soil respiration as being needed for reducing uncertainty in land-atmosphere CO 2 exchange. These advances will require collection of new field data on vegetation and soil dynamics, the development of benchmarking data sets from measurements and remote-sensing observations, and investments in future model development and intercomparison studies.« less
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Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Region
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Potter, C.; Klooster, S.; Genovese, V.
2009-01-01
A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation greenness from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado regions over the period 2000-2002. The NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model estimates of annual forest production were used for the first time as the basis to generate a prediction for the standing pool of carbon in above-ground biomass (AGB; gC/sq m) for forested areas of the Brazilian Amazon region. Plot-level measurements of the residence time of carbon in wood in Amazon forest from Malhi et al. (2006) were interpolated by inverse distance weighting algorithms and used with CASA to generate a new regional map of AGB. Data from the Brazilian PRODES (Estimativa do Desflorestamento da Amazonia) project were used to map deforested areas. Results show that net primary production (NPP) sinks for carbon varied between 4.25 Pg C/yr (1 Pg=10(exp 15)g) and 4.34 Pg C for the region and were highest across the eastern and northern Amazon areas, whereas deforestation sources of CO2 flux from decomposition of residual woody debris were higher and less seasonal in the central Amazon than in the eastern and southern areas. Increased woody debris from past deforestation events was predicted to alter the net ecosystem carbon balance of the Amazon region to generate annual CO2 source fluxes at least two times higher than previously predicted by CASA modeling studies. Variations in climate, land cover, and forest burning were predicted to release carbon at rates of 0.5 to 1 Pg C/yr from the Brazilian Amazon. When direct deforestation emissions of CO2 from forest burning of between 0.2 and 0.6 Pg C/yr in the Legal Amazon are overlooked in regional budgets, the year-to-year variations in this net biome flux may appear to be large, whereas our model results implies net biome fluxes had actually been relatively consistent from year to year during the period 2000-2002. This is the first study to use MODIS data to model all carbon pools (wood, leaf, root) dynamically in simulations of Amazon forest deforestation from clearing and burning of all kinds.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.
2014-08-01
Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined as differences between the net emissions in the accounting period and the ex ante estimation of net business-as-usual emissions for the same period, has robustness over variations in future climate and effectiveness to factor out some of the direct human-induced effects such as changing land-use and agricultural activity. Factors affecting uncertainties in the estimation of the country-scale potential of SOC sequestration were discussed, especially those related to estimation of the rate of organic carbon input to soils under different land-use types. Our study suggested that, in order to assist decision making of policy on agriculture, land management, and mitigation of global climate change, it is also important to take account of duration and time course of SOC sequestration, supposition on land-use change pattern in future, as well as feasibility of agricultural policy planning.
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Soil warming, carbon–nitrogen interactions, and forest carbon budgets
Melillo, Jerry M.; Butler, Sarah; Johnson, Jennifer; Mohan, Jacqueline; Steudler, Paul; Lux, Heidi; Burrows, Elizabeth; Bowles, Francis; Smith, Rose; Scott, Lindsay; Vario, Chelsea; Hill, Troy; Burton, Andrew; Zhou, Yu-Mei; Tang, Jim
2011-01-01
Soil warming has the potential to alter both soil and plant processes that affect carbon storage in forest ecosystems. We have quantified these effects in a large, long-term (7-y) soil-warming study in a deciduous forest in New England. Soil warming has resulted in carbon losses from the soil and stimulated carbon gains in the woody tissue of trees. The warming-enhanced decay of soil organic matter also released enough additional inorganic nitrogen into the soil solution to support the observed increases in plant carbon storage. Although soil warming has resulted in a cumulative net loss of carbon from a New England forest relative to a control area over the 7-y study, the annual net losses generally decreased over time as plant carbon storage increased. In the seventh year, warming-induced soil carbon losses were almost totally compensated for by plant carbon gains in response to warming. We attribute the plant gains primarily to warming-induced increases in nitrogen availability. This study underscores the importance of incorporating carbon–nitrogen interactions in atmosphere–ocean–land earth system models to accurately simulate land feedbacks to the climate system. PMID:21606374
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Su-Jong; Im, Jungho; Cha, Dong Hyun; Lee, Sanggyun
2017-12-01
This study compares historical simulations of the terrestrial carbon cycle produced by 10 Earth System Models (ESMs) that participated in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Using MODIS satellite estimates, this study validates the simulation of gross primary production (GPP), net primary production (NPP), and carbon use efficiency (CUE), which depend on plant function types (PFTs). The models show noticeable deficiencies compared to the MODIS data in the simulation of the spatial patterns of GPP and NPP and large differences among the simulations, although the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean provides a realistic global mean value and spatial distributions. The larger model spreads in GPP and NPP compared to those of surface temperature and precipitation suggest that the differences among simulations in terms of the terrestrial carbon cycle are largely due to uncertainties in the parameterization of terrestrial carbon fluxes by vegetation. The models also exhibit large spatial differences in their simulated CUE values and at locations where the dominant PFT changes, primarily due to differences in the parameterizations. While the MME-simulated CUE values show a strong dependence on surface temperatures, the observed CUE values from MODIS show greater complexity, as well as non-linear sensitivity. This leads to the overall underestimation of CUE using most of the PFTs incorporated into current ESMs. The results of this comparison suggest that more careful and extensive validation is needed to improve the terrestrial carbon cycle in terms of ecosystem-level processes.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ueyama, M.; Kondo, M.; Ichii, K.; Iwata, H.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Zona, D.; Rocha, A. V.; Harazono, Y.; Nakai, T.; Oechel, W. C.
2013-12-01
To better predict carbon and water cycles in Arctic ecosystems, we modified a process-based ecosystem model, BIOME-BGC, by introducing new processes: change in active layer depth on permafrost and phenology of tundra vegetation. The modified BIOME-BGC was optimized using an optimization method. The model was constrained using gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at 23 eddy covariance sites in Alaska, and vegetation/soil carbon from a literature survey. The model was used to simulate regional carbon and water fluxes of Alaska from 1900 to 2011. Simulated regional fluxes were validated with upscaled GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and NEE based on two methods: (1) a machine learning technique and (2) a top-down model. Our initial simulation suggests that the original BIOME-BGC with default ecophysiological parameters substantially underestimated GPP and RE for tundra and overestimated those fluxes for boreal forests. We will discuss how optimization using the eddy covariance data impacts the historical simulation by comparing the new version of the model with simulated results from the original BIOME-BGC with default ecophysiological parameters. This suggests that the incorporation of the active layer depth and plant phenology processes is important to include when simulating carbon and water fluxes in Arctic ecosystems.
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Comparing simulated carbon budget of a Lei bamboo forest with flux tower data
Li, Xuehe; Jiang, Hong; Liu, Jinxun; Sun, Cheng; Wang, Ying; Jin, Jiaxin
2014-01-01
Bamboo forest ecosystem is the part of the forest ecosystem. The distribution area of bamboo forest is limited, but in somewhere, like south China, it has been cultivate for a long time with human management. As the climate change has been take great effect on forest carbon budget, many researchers pay attention to the carbon budget in bamboo forest. Moreover cultivative management had a significant impact on the bamboo forest carbon budget. In this study, we modified a terrestrial ecosystem model named Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) according the management of Lei bamboo forest. Some management, like fertilization, shoots harvesting and organic mulching in winter, had been incorporated into model. Then we had compared model results with the observation data from a Lei bamboo flux tower. The simulated and observed results had achieved good consistency. Our simulated Lei bamboo forest yearly net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was 0.41 kgC a-1 of carbon, which is very close to the observation data 0.45 kgC a-1 of carbon. And the monthly simulated results can take the change of carbon budget in each month, similar to the data we got from flux tower. It reflects that the modified IBIS model can characterize the growth of bamboo forest and perform the simulation well. And then two groups of simulations were set to evaluate effects of cultivative managements on Lei bamboo forests carbon budget. And results showed that both fertilization and organic mulching had taken positive effects on Lei bamboo forests carbon sequestration.
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Benchmarking carbon fluxes of the ISIMIP2a biome models
Chang, Jinfeng; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Xuhui; ...
2017-03-28
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the eight ISIMIP2a biome models against independent estimates of long-term net carbon fluxes (i.e. Net Biome Productivity, NBP) over terrestrial ecosystems for the recent four decades (1971–2010). Here, we evaluate modeled global NBP against 1) the updated global residual land sink (RLS) plus land use emissions (E LUC) from the Global Carbon Project (GCP), presented as R + L in this study by Le Quéré et al (2015), and 2) the land CO 2 fluxes from two atmospheric inversion systems: Jena CarboScope s81_v3.8 and CAMS v15r2, referred to as F Jena andmore » F CAMS respectively. The model ensemble-mean NBP (that includes seven models with land-use change) is higher than but within the uncertainty of R + L, while the simulated positive NBP trend over the last 30 yr is lower than that from R + L and from the two inversion systems. ISIMIP2a biome models well capture the interannual variation of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes. Tropical NBP represents 31 ± 17% of global total NBP during the past decades, and the year-to-year variation of tropical NBP contributes most of the interannual variation of global NBP. According to the models, increasing Net Primary Productivity (NPP) was the main cause for the generally increasing NBP. Significant global NBP anomalies from the long-term mean between the two phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are simulated by all models (p < 0.05), which is consistent with the R + L estimate (p = 0.06), also mainly attributed to NPP anomalies, rather than to changes in heterotrophic respiration (Rh). The global NPP and NBP anomalies during ENSO events are dominated by their anomalies in tropical regions impacted by tropical climate variability. Multiple regressions between R + L, F Jena and F CAMS interannual variations and tropical climate variations reveal a significant negative response of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes to tropical mean annual temperature variation, and a non-significant response to tropical annual precipitation variation. According to the models, tropical precipitation is a more important driver, suggesting that some models do not capture the roles of precipitation and temperature changes adequately.« less
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Benchmarking carbon fluxes of the ISIMIP2a biome models
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Chang, Jinfeng; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Xuhui
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the eight ISIMIP2a biome models against independent estimates of long-term net carbon fluxes (i.e. Net Biome Productivity, NBP) over terrestrial ecosystems for the recent four decades (1971–2010). Here, we evaluate modeled global NBP against 1) the updated global residual land sink (RLS) plus land use emissions (E LUC) from the Global Carbon Project (GCP), presented as R + L in this study by Le Quéré et al (2015), and 2) the land CO 2 fluxes from two atmospheric inversion systems: Jena CarboScope s81_v3.8 and CAMS v15r2, referred to as F Jena andmore » F CAMS respectively. The model ensemble-mean NBP (that includes seven models with land-use change) is higher than but within the uncertainty of R + L, while the simulated positive NBP trend over the last 30 yr is lower than that from R + L and from the two inversion systems. ISIMIP2a biome models well capture the interannual variation of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes. Tropical NBP represents 31 ± 17% of global total NBP during the past decades, and the year-to-year variation of tropical NBP contributes most of the interannual variation of global NBP. According to the models, increasing Net Primary Productivity (NPP) was the main cause for the generally increasing NBP. Significant global NBP anomalies from the long-term mean between the two phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are simulated by all models (p < 0.05), which is consistent with the R + L estimate (p = 0.06), also mainly attributed to NPP anomalies, rather than to changes in heterotrophic respiration (Rh). The global NPP and NBP anomalies during ENSO events are dominated by their anomalies in tropical regions impacted by tropical climate variability. Multiple regressions between R + L, F Jena and F CAMS interannual variations and tropical climate variations reveal a significant negative response of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes to tropical mean annual temperature variation, and a non-significant response to tropical annual precipitation variation. According to the models, tropical precipitation is a more important driver, suggesting that some models do not capture the roles of precipitation and temperature changes adequately.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
MacBean, N.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.; Vuichard, N.; Hudson, A.; Barnes, M.; Fox, A. M.; Smith, W. K.; Peylin, P. P.; Maignan, F.; Moore, D. J.
2017-12-01
Recent studies based on analysis of atmospheric CO2 inversions, satellite data and terrestrial biosphere model simulations have suggested that semi-arid ecosystems play a dominant role in the interannual variability and long-term trend in the global carbon sink. These studies have largely cited the response of vegetation activity to changing moisture availability as the primary mechanism of variability. However, some land surface models (LSMs) used in these studies have performed poorly in comparison to satellite-based observations of vegetation dynamics in semi-arid regions. Further analysis is therefore needed to ensure semi-arid carbon cycle processes are well represented in global scale LSMs before we can fully establish their contribution to the global carbon cycle. In this study, we evaluated annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) simulated by CMIP5 land surface models using observations from 20 Ameriflux sites across semi-arid southwestern North America. We found that CMIP5 models systematically underestimate the magnitude and sign of NEE inter-annual variability; therefore, the true role of semi-arid regions in the global carbon cycle may be even more important than previously thought. To diagnose the factors responsible for this bias, we used the ORCHIDEE LSM to test different climate forcing data, prescribed vegetation fractions and model structures. Climate and prescribed vegetation do contribute to uncertainty in annual NEE simulations, but the bias is primarily caused by incorrect timing and magnitude of peak gross carbon fluxes. Modifications to the hydrology scheme improved simulations of soil moisture in comparison to data. This in turn improved the seasonal cycle of carbon uptake due to a more realistic limitation on photosynthesis during water stress. However, the peak fluxes are still too low, and phenology is poorly represented for desert shrubs and grasses. We provide suggestions on model developments needed to tackle these issues in the future.
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Representing winter wheat in the Community Land Model (version 4.5)
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Lu, Yaqiong; Williams, Ian N.; Bagley, Justin E.
Winter wheat is a staple crop for global food security, and is the dominant vegetation cover for a significant fraction of Earth's croplands. As such, it plays an important role in carbon cycling and land–atmosphere interactions in these key regions. Accurate simulation of winter wheat growth is not only crucial for future yield prediction under a changing climate, but also for accurately predicting the energy and water cycles for winter wheat dominated regions. We modified the winter wheat model in the Community Land Model (CLM) to better simulate winter wheat leaf area index, latent heat flux, net ecosystem exchange ofmore » CO 2, and grain yield. These included schemes to represent vernalization as well as frost tolerance and damage. We calibrated three key parameters (minimum planting temperature, maximum crop growth days, and initial value of leaf carbon allocation coefficient) and modified the grain carbon allocation algorithm for simulations at the US Southern Great Plains ARM site (US-ARM), and validated the model performance at eight additional sites across North America. We found that the new winter wheat model improved the prediction of monthly variation in leaf area index, reduced latent heat flux, and net ecosystem exchange root mean square error (RMSE) by 41 and 35 % during the spring growing season. The model accurately simulated the interannual variation in yield at the US-ARM site, but underestimated yield at sites and in regions (northwestern and southeastern US) with historically greater yields by 35 %.« less
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Representing winter wheat in the Community Land Model (version 4.5)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lu, Yaqiong; Williams, Ian N.; Bagley, Justin E.; Torn, Margaret S.; Kueppers, Lara M.
2017-05-01
Winter wheat is a staple crop for global food security, and is the dominant vegetation cover for a significant fraction of Earth's croplands. As such, it plays an important role in carbon cycling and land-atmosphere interactions in these key regions. Accurate simulation of winter wheat growth is not only crucial for future yield prediction under a changing climate, but also for accurately predicting the energy and water cycles for winter wheat dominated regions. We modified the winter wheat model in the Community Land Model (CLM) to better simulate winter wheat leaf area index, latent heat flux, net ecosystem exchange of CO2, and grain yield. These included schemes to represent vernalization as well as frost tolerance and damage. We calibrated three key parameters (minimum planting temperature, maximum crop growth days, and initial value of leaf carbon allocation coefficient) and modified the grain carbon allocation algorithm for simulations at the US Southern Great Plains ARM site (US-ARM), and validated the model performance at eight additional sites across North America. We found that the new winter wheat model improved the prediction of monthly variation in leaf area index, reduced latent heat flux, and net ecosystem exchange root mean square error (RMSE) by 41 and 35 % during the spring growing season. The model accurately simulated the interannual variation in yield at the US-ARM site, but underestimated yield at sites and in regions (northwestern and southeastern US) with historically greater yields by 35 %.
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Representing winter wheat in the Community Land Model (version 4.5)
Lu, Yaqiong; Williams, Ian N.; Bagley, Justin E.; ...
2017-05-05
Winter wheat is a staple crop for global food security, and is the dominant vegetation cover for a significant fraction of Earth's croplands. As such, it plays an important role in carbon cycling and land–atmosphere interactions in these key regions. Accurate simulation of winter wheat growth is not only crucial for future yield prediction under a changing climate, but also for accurately predicting the energy and water cycles for winter wheat dominated regions. We modified the winter wheat model in the Community Land Model (CLM) to better simulate winter wheat leaf area index, latent heat flux, net ecosystem exchange ofmore » CO 2, and grain yield. These included schemes to represent vernalization as well as frost tolerance and damage. We calibrated three key parameters (minimum planting temperature, maximum crop growth days, and initial value of leaf carbon allocation coefficient) and modified the grain carbon allocation algorithm for simulations at the US Southern Great Plains ARM site (US-ARM), and validated the model performance at eight additional sites across North America. We found that the new winter wheat model improved the prediction of monthly variation in leaf area index, reduced latent heat flux, and net ecosystem exchange root mean square error (RMSE) by 41 and 35 % during the spring growing season. The model accurately simulated the interannual variation in yield at the US-ARM site, but underestimated yield at sites and in regions (northwestern and southeastern US) with historically greater yields by 35 %.« less
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Feng, X; Liu, G; Chen, J M; Chen, M; Liu, J; Ju, W M; Sun, R; Zhou, W
2007-11-01
The terrestrial carbon cycle is one of the foci in global climate change research. Simulating net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems is important for carbon cycle research. In this study, China's terrestrial NPP was simulated using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS), a carbon-water coupled process model based on remote sensing inputs. For these purposes, a national-wide database (including leaf area index, land cover, meteorology, vegetation and soil) at a 1 km resolution and a validation database were established. Using these databases and BEPS, daily maps of NPP for the entire China's landmass in 2001 were produced, and gross primary productivity (GPP) and autotrophic respiration (RA) were estimated. Using the simulated results, we explore temporal-spatial patterns of China's terrestrial NPP and the mechanisms of its responses to various environmental factors. The total NPP and mean NPP of China's landmass were 2.235 GtC and 235.2 gCm(-2)yr(-1), respectively; the total GPP and mean GPP were 4.418 GtC and 465 gCm(-2)yr(-1); and the total RA and mean RA were 2.227 GtC and 234 gCm(-2)yr(-1), respectively. On average, NPP was 50.6% of GPP. In addition, statistical analysis of NPP of different land cover types was conducted, and spatiotemporal patterns of NPP were investigated. The response of NPP to changes in some key factors such as LAI, precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, VPD and AWC are evaluated and discussed.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.
2010-12-01
For CMIP5 experiments, emissions scenarios data sets for climate models are prepared as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). IAMs also have depicted regional land-use scenarios based on the socioeconomic assumption of the future scenarios of RCPs. In the land-use harmonization project, gridded land-use transition data has been constructed from the regional IAMs future land-use scenarios which smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land-use based on HYDE 3 data and FAO wood harvest data. In this study, using the gridded transition land-use scenario data, global net CO2 emission from land-use change for each RCPs scenarios is evaluated with a offline version of terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool), utilizing a protocol to estimate carbon emission from deforested biomass considering delayed decomposition of product pools, and regrowth absorption from the secondary lands with abandoned agricultural lands. From the model output, effect of CO2 fertilization and land-use scenario itself on the emission is assessed to see the consistency of the scenarios. In addition, to see the effect of climate change and the climate-carbon feedback on terrestrial ecosystems, net land-use change CO2 emission is also evaluated with an earth system model, MIROC-ESM incorporating a DGVM with land-use change component. In the simulations with earth system model, RCP 6.0 scenario has been evaluated by model runs with and without land-use change forcing.
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Kontominas, M G; Goulas, A E; Badeka, A V; Nerantzaki, A
2006-06-01
Overall migration from a wide range of commercial plastics-based netting materials destined to be used as either meat or vegetable packaging materials into the fatty food simulant isooctane or the aqueous simulant distilled water, respectively, was studied. In addition, sensory tests of representative netting materials were carried out in bottled water in order to investigate possible development of off-odour/taste and discoloration in this food simulant as a result of migration from the netting material. Sensory tests were supplemented by determination of the volatile compounds' profile in table water exposed to the netting materials using SPME-GC/MS. Test conditions for packaging material/food simulant contact and method of overall migration analysis were according to European Union Directives 90/128 (EEC, 1990) and 2002/72 (EEC, 2002). The results showed that for both PET and polyethylene-based netting materials, overall migration values into distilled water ranged between 11.5 and 48.5 mg l(-1), well below the upper limit (60 mg l(-1)) for overall migration values from plastics-packaging materials set by the European Union. The overall migration values from netting materials into isooctane ranged between 38.0 and 624.0 mg l(-1), both below and above the European Union upper limit for migration. Sensory tests involving contact of representative samples with table water under refluxing (100 degrees C/4 h) conditions showed a number of the netting materials produced both off-odour and/or taste as well as discoloration of the food simulant rendering such materials unfit for the packaging of foodstuffs in applications involving heating at elevated temperatures. GC/MS analysis showed the presence of numerous volatile compounds being produced after netting materials/water contact under refluxing conditions. Although it is extremely difficult to establish a clear correlation between sensory off-odour development and GC/MS volatile compounds' profile, it may be postulated that plastics oxidation products such as hexanal, heptanal, octanal and 2,6 di-tert-butylquinone may contribute to off-odour development using commercially bottled table water as a food simulant. Likewise, compounds such as carbon disulfide, [1,1'-biphenyl]-2-ol and propanoic acid, 2 methyl 1-(1,1-dimethyl)-2-methyl-1,3-propanediyl ester probably originating from cotton and rubber components of netting materials may also contribute to off-odour/taste development.
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Estimation of Carbon Flux of Forest Ecosystem over Qilian Mountains by BIOME-BGC Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yan, Min; Tian, Xin; Li, Zengyuan; Chen, Erxue; Li, Chunmei
2014-11-01
The gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) are important indicators for carbon fluxes. This study aims at evaluating the forest GPP and NEE over the Qilian Mountains using meteorological, remotely sensed and other ancillary data at large scale. To realize this, the widely used ecological-process-based model, Biome-BGC, and remote-sensing-based model, MODIS GPP algorithm, were selected for the simulation of the forest carbon fluxes. The combination of these two models was based on calibrating the Biome-BGC by the optimized MODIS GPP algorithm. The simulated GPP and NEE values were evaluated against the eddy covariance observed GPPs and NEEs, and the well agreements have been reached, with R2=0.76, 0.67 respectively.
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Estimation of Carbon Flux of Forest Ecosystem over Qilian Mountains by BIOME-BGC Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yan, Min; Tian, Xin; Li, Zengyuan; Chen, Erxue; Li, Chunmei
2014-11-01
The gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) are important indicators for carbon fluxes. This study aims at evaluating the forest GPP and NEE over the Qilian Mountains using meteorological, remotely sensed and other ancillary data at large scale. To realize this, the widely used ecological-process- based model, Biome-BGC, and remote-sensing-based model, MODIS GPP algorithm, were selected for the simulation of the forest carbon fluxes. The combination of these two models was based on calibrating the Biome-BGC by the optimized MODIS GPP algorithm. The simulated GPP and NEE values were evaluated against the eddy covariance observed GPPs and NEEs, and the well agreements have been reached, with R2=0.76, 0.67 respectively.
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Methods of verifying net carbon
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
McClung, M.
1996-10-01
Problems currently exist with using net carbon as an industrial standard to gauge smelter performance. First, throughout the industry there are a number of different methods used for determining net carbon. Also, until recently there has not been a viable method to cross check or predict change in net carbon. This inherently leads to differences and most likely inaccuracies when comparing performances of different plants using a net carbon number. Ravenswood uses specific methods when calculating the net carbon balance. The R and D Carbon, Ltd. formula developed by Verner Fisher, et al, to predict and cross check net carbonmore » based on baked carbon core analysis has been successfully used. Another method is used, as a cross check, which is based on the raw materials (cokes and pitch) usage as related to the metal produced. The combination of these methods gives a definitive representation of the carbon performance in the reduction cell. This report details the methods Ravenswood Aluminum uses and the information derived from it.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bala, G.; N, D.
2015-12-01
In this work, using the fully coupled NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1.0.4), we investigate the relative importance of CO2-fertilization, climate warming, anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover change (LULCC) for terrestrial carbon uptake during the historical period (1850-2005). In our simulations, between the beginning and end of this period, we find an increase in global net primary productivity (NPP) on land of about 4 PgCyr-1 (8.1%) with a contribution of 2.3 PgCyr-1 from CO2-fertilization and 2.0 PgCyr-1 from nitrogen deposition. Climate warming also causes NPP to increase by 0.35 PgCyr-1 but LULCC causes a decline of 0.7 PgCyr-1. These results indicate that the recent increase in vegetation productivity is most likely driven by CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition. Further, we find that this configuration of CESM projects that the global terrestrial ecosystem has been a net source of carbon during 1850-2005 (release of 45.1±2.4 PgC), largely driven by historical LULCC related CO2 fluxes to the atmosphere. During the recent three decades (early 1970s to early 2000s), however, our model simulations project that the terrestrial ecosystem acts as a sink, taking up about 10 PgC mainly due to CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition. Our results are in good qualitative agreement with recent studies that indicate an increase in vegetation production and water use efficiency in the satellite era and that the terrestrial ecosystem has been a net sink for carbon in recent decades.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hember, R. A.; Kurz, W. A.; Coops, N. C.; Black, T. A.
2010-12-01
Temperate-maritime forests of coastal British Columbia store large amounts of carbon (C) in soil, detritus, and trees. To better understand the sensitivity of these C stocks to climate variability, simulations were conducted using a hybrid version of the model, Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG), combined with algorithms from the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector - version 3 (CBM-CFS3) to account for full ecosystem C dynamics. The model was optimized based on a combination of monthly CO2 and H2O flux measurements derived from three eddy-covariance systems and multi-annual stemwood growth (Gsw) and mortality (Msw) derived from 1300 permanent sample plots by means of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The calibrated model serves as an unbiased estimator of stemwood C with enhanced precision over that of strictly-empirical models, minimized reliance on local prescriptions, and the flexibility to study impacts of environmental change on regional C stocks. We report the contribution of each dataset in identifying key physiological parameters and the posterior uncertainty in predictions of net ecosystem production (NEP). The calibrated model was used to spin up pre-industrial C pools and estimate the sensitivity of regional net carbon balance to a gradient of temperature changes, λ=ΔC/ΔT, during three 62-year harvest rotations, spanning 1949-2135. Simulations suggest that regional net primary production, tree mortality, and heterotrophic respiration all began increasing, while NEP began decreasing in response to warming following the 1976 shift in northeast-Pacific climate. We quantified the uncertainty of λ and how it was mediated by initial dead C, tree mortality, precipitation change, and the time horizon in which it was calculated.
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Drivers of inorganic carbon dynamics in first-year sea ice: A model study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moreau, Sébastien; Vancoppenolle, Martin; Delille, Bruno; Tison, Jean-Louis; Zhou, Jiayun; Kotovitch, Marie; Thomas, David N.; Geilfus, Nicolas-Xavier; Goosse, Hugues
2015-01-01
Sea ice is an active source or a sink for carbon dioxide (CO2), although to what extent is not clear. Here, we analyze CO2 dynamics within sea ice using a one-dimensional halothermodynamic sea ice model including gas physics and carbon biogeochemistry. The ice-ocean fluxes, and vertical transport, of total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) are represented using fluid transport equations. Carbonate chemistry, the consumption, and release of CO2 by primary production and respiration, the precipitation and dissolution of ikaite (CaCO3·6H2O) and ice-air CO2 fluxes, are also included. The model is evaluated using observations from a 6 month field study at Point Barrow, Alaska, and an ice-tank experiment. At Barrow, results show that the DIC budget is mainly driven by physical processes, wheras brine-air CO2 fluxes, ikaite formation, and net primary production, are secondary factors. In terms of ice-atmosphere CO2 exchanges, sea ice is a net CO2 source and sink in winter and summer, respectively. The formulation of the ice-atmosphere CO2 flux impacts the simulated near-surface CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), but not the DIC budget. Because the simulated ice-atmosphere CO2 fluxes are limited by DIC stocks, and therefore <2 mmol m-2 d-1, we argue that the observed much larger CO2 fluxes from eddy covariance retrievals cannot be explained by a sea ice direct source and must involve other processes or other sources of CO2. Finally, the simulations suggest that near-surface TA/DIC ratios of ˜2, sometimes used as an indicator of calcification, would rather suggest outgassing.
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Drivers of inorganic carbon dynamics in first-year sea ice: A model study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moreau, Sébastien; Vancoppenolle, Martin; Delille, Bruno; Tison, Jean-Louis; Zhou, Jiayun; Kotovich, Marie; Thomas, David; Geilfus, Nicolas-Xavier; Goosse, Hugues
2015-04-01
Sea ice is an active source or a sink for carbon dioxide (CO2), although to what extent is not clear. Here, we analyze CO2 dynamics within sea ice using a one-dimensional halo-thermodynamic sea ice model including gas physics and carbon biogeochemistry. The ice-ocean fluxes, and vertical transport, of total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) are represented using fluid transport equations. Carbonate chemistry, the consumption and release of CO2 by primary production and respiration, the precipitation and dissolution of ikaite (CaCO3•6H2O) and ice-air CO2 fluxes, are also included. The model is evaluated using observations from a 6-month field study at Point Barrow, Alaska and an ice-tank experiment. At Barrow, results show that the DIC budget is mainly driven by physical processes, wheras brine-air CO2 fluxes, ikaite formation, and net primary production, are secondary factors. In terms of ice-atmosphere CO2 exchanges, sea ice is a net CO2 source and sink in winter and summer, respectively. The formulation of the ice-atmosphere CO2 flux impacts the simulated near-surface CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), but not the DIC budget. Because the simulated ice-atmosphere CO2 fluxes are limited by DIC stocks, and therefore < 2 mmol m-2 day-1, we argue that the observed much larger CO2 fluxes from eddy covariance retrievals cannot be explained by a sea ice direct source and must involve other processes or other sources of CO2. Finally, the simulations suggest that near surface TA/DIC ratios of ~2, sometimes used as an indicator of calcification, would rather suggest outgassing.
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Jennifer C. Jenkins; Richard A. Birdsey
2000-01-01
As interest grows in the role of forest growth in the carbon cycle, and as simulation models are applied to predict future forest productivity at large spatial scales, the need for reliable and field-based data for evaluation of model estimates is clear. We created estimates of potential forest biomass and annual aboveground production for the Chesapeake Bay watershed...
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A global modeling study on carbonaceous aerosol microphysical characteristics and radiative forcing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bauer, S. E.; Menon, S.; Koch, D.; Bond, T. C.; Tsigaridis, K.
2010-02-01
Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, cloud-indirect and semi-direct forcing effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and the way that mixed, aged aerosols interact with clouds and radiation. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the GISS climate model is used in this study to present a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative forcing. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing between 1750 and 2000 is -0.56 W/m2. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are quite sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative forcing can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties at emission. Assuming that sulfates, nitrates and secondary organics form a coating around a black carbon core, rather than forming a uniformly mixed particle, changes the overall net aerosol radiative forcing from negative to positive. Taking into account internally mixed black carbon particles let us simulate correct aerosol absorption. Black carbon absorption is amplified by sulfate and nitrate coatings, but even more strongly by organic coatings. Black carbon mitigation scenarios generally showed reduced radiative forcing when sources with a large proportion of black carbon, such as diesel, are reduced; however reducing sources with a larger organic carbon component as well, such as bio-fuels, does not necessarily lead to climate benefits.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peylin, P. P.; Bacour, C.; MacBean, N.; Maignan, F.; Bastrikov, V.; Chevallier, F.
2017-12-01
Predicting the fate of carbon stocks and their sensitivity to climate change and land use/management strongly relies on our ability to accurately model net and gross carbon fluxes. However, simulated carbon and water fluxes remain subject to large uncertainties, partly because of unknown or poorly calibrated parameters. Over the past ten years, the carbon cycle data assimilation system at the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement has investigated the benefit of assimilating multiple carbon cycle data streams into the ORCHIDEE LSM, the land surface component of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Earth System Model. These datasets have included FLUXNET eddy covariance data (net CO2 flux and latent heat flux) to constrain hourly to seasonal time-scale carbon cycle processes, remote sensing of the vegetation activity (MODIS NDVI) to constrain the leaf phenology, biomass data to constrain "slow" (yearly to decadal) processes of carbon allocation, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations to provide overall large scale constraints on the land carbon sink. Furthermore, we have investigated technical issues related to multiple data stream assimilation and choice of optimization algorithm. This has provided a wide-ranging perspective on the challenges we face in constraining model parameters and thus better quantifying, and reducing, model uncertainty in projections of the future global carbon sink. We review our past studies in terms of the impact of the optimization on key characteristics of the carbon cycle, e.g. the partition of the northern latitudes vs tropical land carbon sink, and compare to the classic atmospheric flux inversion approach. Throughout, we discuss our work in context of the abovementioned challenges, and propose solutions for the community going forward, including the potential of new observations such as atmospheric COS concentrations and satellite-derived Solar Induced Fluorescence to constrain the gross carbon fluxes of the ORCHIDEE model.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fu, C.; Wang, G.; Cardon, Z. G.
2015-12-01
Effects of hydraulic redistribution (HR) on the hydrological cycle and ecosystem dynamics have been demonstrated in the field, but few modeling studies have compared HR's influences on the carbon cycle in different ecosystems and climate regions. The soil moisture changes associated with HR could influence plant carbon gain via two mechanisms: (1) improved plant water status supporting stomatal opening, and/or (2) enhanced nutrient availability to plants caused by enhanced soil microbial activity. In this study, using a modified version of the Community Land Model with Century-based soil carbon pool kinetics that includes the "Ryel et al. 2002" scheme for hydraulic redistribution (HR), the influence of HR on the carbon flux and storage is investigated at four Ameriflux sites where HR was detected from soil moisture measurements. The study sites include a Douglas-fir site (US-Wrc) in Washington State with a mediterranean climate, a savanna site (US-SRM) in Arizona with a semi-arid climate, an oak/pine forest site (US-SCf) in Southern California with a mediterranean climate, and an evergreen broadleaf forest site (BR-Sa1) with tropical monsoon climate. Simulations revealed that HR tended to enhance plant growth at all four sites, and incorporating HR into CLM4.5 reduces the temporal fluctuation of soil carbon storage at all four sites. Simulations with HR can capture the net carbon exchange between ecosystem and the atmosphere (NEE) at the US-Wrc, US-SRM, and BR-Sa1 sites over the annual cycle. Incorporation of HR into CLM4.5 clearly improved the weekly and sub-daily NEE simulation during dry periods at US-SCf and BR-Sa1 site. HR-induced increase in Net Primary Productivity (NPP) at the US-Wrc and US-SRM sites was driven approximately equally by the two distinct mechanisms we investigated: increased stomatal conductance and increased nutrient availability to plants.
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Importance of vegetation dynamics for future terrestrial carbon cycling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ahlström, Anders; Xia, Jianyang; Arneth, Almut; Luo, Yiqi; Smith, Benjamin
2015-05-01
Terrestrial ecosystems currently sequester about one third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions each year, an important ecosystem service that dampens climate change. The future fate of this net uptake of CO2 by land based ecosystems is highly uncertain. Most ecosystem models used to predict the future terrestrial carbon cycle share a common architecture, whereby carbon that enters the system as net primary production (NPP) is distributed to plant compartments, transferred to litter and soil through vegetation turnover and then re-emitted to the atmosphere in conjunction with soil decomposition. However, while all models represent the processes of NPP and soil decomposition, they vary greatly in their representations of vegetation turnover and the associated processes governing mortality, disturbance and biome shifts. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality, and the associated turnover. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing. By exchanging carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations we quantified the relative roles of three main driving processes of the carbon cycle; (I) NPP, (II) vegetation dynamics and turnover and (III) soil decomposition, in terms of their contribution to future carbon (C) uptake uncertainties among the ensemble of climate change scenarios. We found that NPP, vegetation turnover (including structural shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33%, respectively, of uncertainties in modelled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation turnover was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand dynamics (7%), reproduction (10%) and biome shifts (67%) globally. We conclude that while NPP and soil decomposition rates jointly account for 83% of future climate induced C-uptake uncertainties, vegetation turnover and structure, dominated by biome shifts, represent a significant fraction globally and regionally (tropical forests: 40%), strongly motivating their representation and analysis in future C-cycle studies.
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Spatially Explicit Simulation of Mesotopographic Controls on Peatland Hydrology and Carbon Fluxes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sonnentag, O.; Chen, J. M.; Roulet, N. T.
2006-12-01
A number of field carbon flux measurements, paleoecological records, and model simulations have acknowledged the importance of northern peatlands in terrestrial carbon cycling and methane emissions. An important parameter in peatlands that influences both net primary productivity, the net gain of carbon through photosynthesis, and decomposition under aerobic and anaerobic conditions, is the position of the water table. Biological and physical processes involved in peatland carbon dynamics and their hydrological controls operate at different spatial scales. The highly variable hydraulic characteristics of the peat profile and the overall shape of the peat body as defined by its surface topography at the mesoscale (104 m2) are of major importance for peatland water table dynamics. Common types of peatlands include bogs with a slightly domed centre. As a result of the convex profile, their water supply is restricted to atmospheric inputs, and water is mainly shed by shallow subsurface flow. From a modelling perspective the influence of mesotopographic controls on peatland hydrology and thus carbon balance requires that process-oriented models that examine the links between peatland hydrology, ecosystem functioning, and climate must incorporate some form of lateral subsurface flow consideration. Most hydrological and ecological modelling studies in complex terrain explicitly account for the topographic controls on lateral subsurface flow through digital elevation models. However, modelling studies in peatlands often employ simple empirical parameterizations of lateral subsurface flow, neglecting the influence of peatlands low relief mesoscale topography. Our objective is to explicitly simulate the mesotopographic controls on peatland hydrology and carbon fluxes using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) adapted to northern peatlands. BEPS is a process-oriented ecosystem model in a remote sensing framework that takes into account peatlands multi-layer canopy through vertically stratified mapped leaf area index. Model outputs are validated against multi-year measurements taken at an eddy-covariance flux tower located within Mer Bleue bog, a typical raised bog near Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. Model results for seasonal water table dynamics and evapotranspiration at daily time steps in 2003 are in good agreement with measurements with R2=0.74 and R2=0.79, respectively, and indicate the suitability of our pursued approach.
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Zhang, Li; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; ...
2016-07-15
The Community Land Model (CLM) is an advanced process-based land surface model that simulates carbon, nitrogen, water vapor and energy exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere at various spatial and temporal scales. We use observed carbon and water fluxes from five representative Chinese Terrestrial Ecosystem Flux Research Network (ChinaFLUX) eddy covariance tower sites to systematically evaluate the new version CLM4.5 and old version CLM4.0, and to generate insights that may inform future model developments. CLM4.5 underestimates the annual carbon sink at three forest sites and one alpine grassland site but overestimates the carbon sink of a semi-arid grassland site.more » The annual carbon sink underestimation for the deciduous-dominated forest site results from underestimated daytime carbon sequestration during summer and overestimated nighttime carbon emission during spring and autumn. Compared to CLM4.0, the bias of annual gross primary production (GPP) is reduced by 24% and 28% in CLM4.5 at two subtropical forest sites. However, CLM4.5 still presents a large positive bias in annual GPP. The improvement in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) is limited, although soil respiration bias decreases by 16%–43% at three forest sites. CLM4.5 simulates lower soil water content in the dry season than CLM4.0 at two grassland sites. Drier soils produce a significant drop in the leaf area index and in GPP and an increase in respiration for CLM4.5. The new fire parameterization approach in CLM4.5 causes excessive burning at the Changbaishan forest site, resulting in an unexpected underestimation of NEE, vegetation carbon, and soil organic carbon by 46%, 95%, and 87%, respectively. Altogether, our study reveals significant improvements achieved by CLM4.5 compared to CLM4.0, and suggests further developments on the parameterization of seasonal GPP and respiration, which will require a more effective representation of seasonal water conditions and the partitioning of net radiation between sensible and heat fluxes.« less
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hunt, E. R., Jr.; Running, Steven W.
1992-01-01
An ecosystem process simulation model, BIOME-BGC, is used in a sensitivity analysis to determine the factors that may cause the dry matter yield (epsilon) and annual net primary production to vary for different ecosystems. At continental scales, epsilon is strongly correlated with annual precipitation. At a single location, year-to-year variation in net primary production (NPP) and epsilon is correlated with either annual precipitation or minimum air temperatures. Simulations indicate that forests have lower epsilon than grasslands. The most sensitive parameter affecting forest epsilon is the total amount of living woody biomass, which affects NPP by increasing carbon loss by maintenance respiration. A global map of woody biomass should significantly improve estimates of global NPP using remote sensing.
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Gross changes in forest area shape the future carbon balance of tropical forests
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Wei; Ciais, Philippe; Yue, Chao; Gasser, Thomas; Peng, Shushi; Bastos, Ana
2018-01-01
Bookkeeping models are used to estimate land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) carbon fluxes (ELULCC). The uncertainty of bookkeeping models partly arises from data used to define response curves (usually from local data) and their representativeness for application to large regions. Here, we compare biomass recovery curves derived from a recent synthesis of secondary forest plots in Latin America by Poorter et al. (2016) with the curves used previously in bookkeeping models from Houghton (1999) and Hansis et al. (2015). We find that the two latter models overestimate the long-term (100 years) vegetation carbon density of secondary forest by about 25 %. We also use idealized LULCC scenarios combined with these three different response curves to demonstrate the importance of considering gross forest area changes instead of net forest area changes for estimating regional ELULCC. In the illustrative case of a net gain in forest area composed of a large gross loss and a large gross gain occurring during a single year, the initial gross loss has an important legacy effect on ELULCC so that the system can be a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere long after the initial forest area change. We show the existence of critical values of the ratio of gross area change over net area change (γAnetAgross), above which cumulative ELULCC is a net CO2 source rather than a sink for a given time horizon after the initial perturbation. These theoretical critical ratio values derived from simulations of a bookkeeping model are compared with observations from the 30 m resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper data of gross and net forest area change in the Amazon. This allows us to diagnose areas in which current forest gains with a large land turnover will still result in LULCC carbon emissions in 20, 50 and 100 years.
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Greenhouse-gas exchange of croplands worldwide: a process-based model simulation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Inatomi, M.; Ito, A.
2009-12-01
Croplands cover about 15% of the land surface, and play unique roles in global biogeochemical cycles. Especially, greenhouse gas budget of croplands is important for climate projection in the future and for mitigation toward climate stabilization. Sustainable cropland is carbon-neutral (i.e., neither a sink nor a source of CO2 for a long time), but those in developed countries consume fossil fuels for agricultural operations and releases CO2 as revealed by LCAs. Paddy field is one of the substantial sources of CH4, and cropland may be the largest anthropogenic source of N2O. However, these features have not been evaluated and discussed using a spatial-explicit comprehensive framework at the global scale. This study applies a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (VISIT) to worldwide croplands. Exchange of CO2 is simulated as a difference between photosynthesis and respiration, each of which is calculated in a biogeochemical carbon cycle scheme. Net carbon budget accounts for carbon flows by planting, compost input, and harvest. Exchange of CH4 is simulated as a difference between oxidation by aerobic soils and production by anaerobic soils, each of which is calculated using mechanistic schemes. Emission of N2O from nitrification and denitrification is simulated with a semi-mechanistic scheme on the basis of leaky-pipe concept. We are also validating the model through comparison with chamber and tower flux measurements. Global simulations were conducted during a period from 1901 to 2100 on the basis of historical and projected climate and land-use conditions, at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree. Cropland type and distribution was derived from SAGE-HYDE dataset and country-base fertilizer input was obtained from FAOSTAT. Our preliminary simulation for the 1990s estimated that croplands are a net sink of CO2 by 1.1 Gt C/yr; this sink is offset by emission by food consumption. Paddy fields are estimated to release CH4 by 46 Tg CH4/yr, and croplands worldwide release N2O by 5.9 Tg N2O/yr. Because of high Global Warming Potential of CH4 (25 for 100-yr) and N2O (298), these results imply that agriculture is a net source of radiative forcing for the atmosphere. Additionally, recent studies show that N2O is the most important substance for stratospheric ozone depletion. Therefore, further studies are needed to improve quantification of greenhouse gas budget in croplands and to design mitigation strategy.
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Liu, Jinxun; Vogelmann, James E.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Key, Carl H.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Price, D.T.; Chen, Jing M.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Howard, Stephen M.; Bliss, Norman B.; Jiang, Hong
2011-01-01
Land use change, natural disturbance, and climate change directly alter ecosystem productivity and carbon stock level. The estimation of ecosystem carbon dynamics depends on the quality of land cover change data and the effectiveness of the ecosystem models that represent the vegetation growth processes and disturbance effects. We used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and a set of 30- to 60-m resolution fire and land cover change data to examine the carbon changes of California's forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Simulation results indicate that during 1951–2000, the net primary productivity (NPP) increased by 7%, from 72.2 to 77.1 Tg C yr−1 (1 teragram = 1012 g), mainly due to CO2 fertilization, since the climate hardly changed during this period. Similarly, heterotrophic respiration increased by 5%, from 69.4 to 73.1 Tg C yr−1, mainly due to increased forest soil carbon and temperature. Net ecosystem production (NEP) was highly variable in the 50-year period but on average equalled 3.0 Tg C yr−1 (total of 149 Tg C). As with NEP, the net biome production (NBP) was also highly variable but averaged −0.55 Tg C yr−1 (total of –27.3 Tg C) because NBP in the 1980s was very low (–5.34 Tg C yr−1). During the study period, a total of 126 Tg carbon were removed by logging and land use change, and 50 Tg carbon were directly removed by wildland fires. For carbon pools, the estimated total living upper canopy (tree) biomass decreased from 928 to 834 Tg C, and the understory (including shrub and grass) biomass increased from 59 to 63 Tg C. Soil carbon and dead biomass carbon increased from 1136 to 1197 Tg C.Our analyses suggest that both natural and human processes have significant influence on the carbon change in California. During 1951–2000, climate interannual variability was the key driving force for the large interannual changes of ecosystem carbon source and sink at the state level, while logging and fire were the dominant driving forces for carbon balances in several specific ecoregions. From a long-term perspective, CO2fertilization plays a key role in maintaining higher NPP. However, our study shows that the increase in C sequestration by CO2 fertilization is largely offset by logging/land use change and wildland fires.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, P.; Harden, J.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S. L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.
2013-04-01
Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forest and leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. To accurately quantify the role of fire in historical and current regional forest carbon balance using models, one needs to explicitly simulate the new forest cohort that is established after fire. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate boreal forest fire CO2 emissions and follow-up recovery after a stand-replacing fire, with representation of postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the following self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against three clusters of postfire forest chronosequence observations in Canada and Alaska. Evaluation variables for simulated postfire carbon dynamics include: fire carbon emissions, CO2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index (LAI), and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). The model simulation results, when forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO2 history on each chronosequence site, generally match the observed CO2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with measurement accuracy (for CO2 flux ~100 g C m-2 yr-1, for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m-2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m-2). We find that current postfire forest carbon sink on evaluation sites observed by chronosequence methods is mainly driven by historical atmospheric CO2 increase when forests recover from fire disturbance. Historical climate generally exerts a negative effect, probably due to increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increase without sufficient increase in precipitation. Our simulation results demonstrate that a global vegetation model such as ORCHIDEE is able to capture the essential ecosystem processes in fire-disturbed boreal forests and produces satisfactory results in terms of both carbon fluxes and carbon stocks evolution after fire, making it suitable for regional simulations in boreal regions where fire regimes play a key role on ecosystem carbon balance.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhu, Z.; Bergamaschi, B. A.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Liu, S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T. L.; Stackpoole, S. M.
2012-12-01
A new assessment was conducted covering 2.66 million km2 in the Western United States extending from the Rockies to the Pacific coastal waters, in two time periods: baseline (the first half of the 2000s) and future (projections from baseline to 2050), using in-situ and remotely sensed data together with statistical methods and simulation models. The total carbon storage in the ecosystems of the Western United States in 2005 was approximately 13,920 TgC; distributed in live biomass (38%), soil organic carbon (39%), and woody debris and other surface carbon pools (23%). Estimated mean values of major flux terms included net ecosystem production (-127.2 TgC/yr), inland lateral flux (7.2 TgC/yr) from rivers/streams to coastal areas, emissions from inland water surfaces to the atmosphere (28.2 TgC/yr), and emissions form the wildland fires (10.0 TgC/yr). Average C sequestration rates for the region were estimated: -86.6 TgC/yr in net flux for all terrestrial ecosystems, -2.4 and -2.0 TgC/yr in net burial rates in lakes and reservoirs and in the Pacific coastal waters respectively, for a total sequestration rate of -90.9 TgC/yr across all of the major ecosystems. A negative sign denotes uptake, sequestration, or a carbon sink. Most of the net carbon flux is in forests (62.2%, -72.1 gC/m2/yr), followed by grasslands/shrublands (29.6%, -16.4 gC/m2/yr), agricultural lands (7.1%, -38.3 gC/m2/yr), and wetlands (0.96%, -82.1 gC/m2/yr). Projected on the basis of future land-use and land-cover scenarios and climate projections, the total amount of carbon that potentially could be stored in the ecosystems of the Western United States in 2050 was estimated to range from 13,743 to 19,407 TgC, an increase of 1,325-3,947 TgC (or 10.7 to 25.5 %) from baseline conditions of 2005. The potential mean (averaged between 2006 and 2050) annual net carbon flux in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to range from -113.9 TgC/yr to 2.9 TgC/yr. When compared to the baseline net carbon flux estimates, the projected future carbon-sequestration rates in the Western United States represent a potential decline by 16.5 to 49 TgC/yr. The projected decline is largely associated with grasslands/shrublands and forests in the Rockies. Under future projections of climate change, the GHG combustion emissions from wildfires were projected to increase by 28 to 56 percent, relative to baseline conditions.
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Historical carbon emissions and uptake from the agricultural frontier of the Brazilian Amazon.
Galford, Gillian L; Melillo, Jerry M; Kicklighter, David W; Mustard, John F; Cronin, Timothy W; Cerri, Carlos E P; Cerri, Carlos C
2011-04-01
Tropical ecosystems play a large and complex role in the global carbon cycle. Clearing of natural ecosystems for agriculture leads to large pulses of CO2 to the atmosphere from terrestrial biomass. Concurrently, the remaining intact ecosystems, especially tropical forests, may be sequestering a large amount of carbon from the atmosphere in response to global environmental changes including climate changes and an increase in atmospheric CO2. Here we use an approach that integrates census-based historical land use reconstructions, remote-sensing-based contemporary land use change analyses, and simulation modeling of terrestrial biogeochemistry to estimate the net carbon balance over the period 1901-2006 for the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, which is one of the most rapidly changing agricultural frontiers in the world. By the end of this period, we estimate that of the state's 925 225 km2, 221 092 km2 have been converted to pastures and 89 533 km2 have been converted to croplands, with forest-to-pasture conversions being the dominant land use trajectory but with recent transitions to croplands increasing rapidly in the last decade. These conversions have led to a cumulative release of 4.8 Pg C to the atmosphere, with 80% from forest clearing and 20% from the clearing of cerrado. Over the same period, we estimate that the residual undisturbed ecosystems accumulated 0.3 Pg C in response to CO2 fertilization. Therefore, the net emissions of carbon from Mato Grosso over this period were 4.5 Pg C. Net carbon emissions from Mato Grosso since 2000 averaged 146 Tg C/yr, on the order of Brazil's fossil fuel emissions during this period. These emissions were associated with the expansion of croplands to grow soybeans. While alternative management regimes in croplands, including tillage, fertilization, and cropping patterns promote carbon storage in ecosystems, they remain a small portion of the net carbon balance for the region. This detailed accounting of a region's carbon balance is the type of foundation analysis needed by the new United Nations Collaborative Programmme for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).
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The impacts of permafrost thaw on land-atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Hayes, Daniel J; Kicklighter, David W.; McGuire, A. David
2014-01-01
Permafrost thaw and the subsequent mobilization of carbon stored in previously frozen soil organic matter (SOM) would be a strong positive feedback to climate1. As the northern permafrost region experiences double the rate of warming as the rest of the Earth2, the vast amount of carbon in permafrost soils3 is vulnerable to thaw, decomposition and release as atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, we employ a process-based model simulation experiment to assess the net effect of this so-called permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) in recent decades. Results show a wide-spread increase in the depth to permafrost between 1990 and 2006, with simulatedmore » active layer thickness (ALT) capturing the mean and spatial variability of the observational data. Analysis of the simulation experiment provides an estimate of a 2.8 mm/yr increase in permafrost depth, which translates to 281 TgC/yr thawed from previously frozen SOM. Overall, we estimate a net GHG forcing of 534 MtCO2eq/yr directly tied to ALT dynamics, while accounting for CO2 (562 MtCO2eq/yr) and CH4 (52 MtCO2eq/yr) release as well as CO2 uptake by vegetation (-80 MtCO2eq/yr). This net forcing represents a significant factor in the estimated 640 MtCO2eq/yr pan-arctic GHG source4, and an additional 6.9% contribution on top of the combined 7792 MtCO2eq/yr fossil fuel emissions from the eight Arctic nations over this time period5.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Lei, Huimin; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.
2014-09-01
The terrestrial water and carbon cycles interact strongly at various spatio-temporal scales. To elucidate how hydrologic processes may influence carbon cycle processes, differences in terrestrial carbon cycle simulations induced by structural differences in two runoff generation schemes were investigated using the Community Land Model 4 (CLM4). Simulations were performed with runoff generation using the default TOPMODEL-based and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model approaches under the same experimental protocol. The comparisons showed that differences in the simulated gross primary production (GPP) are mainly attributed to differences in the simulated leaf area index (LAI) rather than soil moisture availability. More specifically,more » differences in runoff simulations can influence LAI through changes in soil moisture, soil temperature, and their seasonality that affect the onset of the growing season and the subsequent dynamic feedbacks between terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycles. As a result of a relative difference of 36% in global mean total runoff between the two models and subsequent changes in soil moisture, soil temperature, and LAI, the simulated global mean GPP differs by 20.4%. However, the relative difference in the global mean net ecosystem exchange between the two models is small (2.1%) due to competing effects on total mean ecosystem respiration and other fluxes, although large regional differences can still be found. Our study highlights the significant interactions among the water, energy, and carbon cycles and the need for reducing uncertainty in the hydrologic parameterization of land surface models to better constrain carbon cycle modeling.« less
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Whole-system carbon balance for a regional temperate forest in Northern Wisconsin, USA
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peckham, S. D.; Gower, S. T.
2010-12-01
The whole-system (biological + industrial) carbon (C) balance was estimated for the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest (CNNF), a temperate forest covering 600,000 ha in Northern Wisconsin, USA. The biological system was modeled using a spatially-explicit version of the ecosystem process model Biome-BGC. The industrial system was modeled using life cycle inventory (LCI) models for wood and paper products. Biome-BGC was used to estimate net primary production, net ecosystem production (NEP), and timber harvest (H) over the entire CNNF. The industrial carbon budget (Ci) was estimated by applying LCI models of CO2 emissions resulting from timber harvest and production of specific wood and paper products in the CNNF region. In 2009, simulated NEP of the CNNF averaged 3.0 tC/ha and H averaged 0.1 tC/ha. Despite model uncertainty, the CNNF region is likely a carbon sink (NEP - Ci > 0), even when CO2 emissions from timber harvest and production of wood and paper products are included in the calculation of the entire forest system C budget.
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Available fuel dynamics in nine contrasting forest ecosystems in North America
Soung-Ryoul Ryu; Jiquan Chen; Thomas R. Crow; Sari C. Saunders
2004-01-01
Available fuel and its dynamics, both of which affect fire behavior in forest ecosystems, are direct products of ecosystem production, decomposition, and disturbances. Using published ecosystem models and equations, we developed a simulation model to evaluate the effects of dynamics of aboveground net primary production (ANPP), carbon allocation, residual slash,...
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SIMULATION OF NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONS FROM DAIRY FARMS TO ASSESS GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION STRATEGIES
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Farming practices can have a large impact on the net emission of greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide (N**2O). The primary sources of N**2O from dairy farms are nitrification and denitrification processes in soil, with smaller contributions from manure storage and ba...
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Simulated Impact of Glacial Runoff on CO2 Uptake in the Gulf of Alaska
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pilcher, Darren J.; Siedlecki, Samantha A.; Hermann, Albert J.; Coyle, Kenneth O.; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Evans, Wiley
2018-01-01
The Gulf of Alaska (GOA) receives substantial summer freshwater runoff from glacial meltwater. The alkalinity of this runoff is highly dependent on the glacial source and can modify the coastal carbon cycle. We use a regional ocean biogeochemical model to simulate CO2 uptake in the GOA under different alkalinity-loading scenarios. The GOA is identified as a current net sink of carbon, though low-alkalinity tidewater glacial runoff suppresses summer coastal carbon uptake. Our model shows that increasing the alkalinity generates an increase in annual CO2 uptake of 1.9-2.7 TgC/yr. This transition is comparable to a projected change in glacial runoff composition (i.e., from tidewater to land-terminating) due to continued climate warming. Our results demonstrate an important local carbon-climate feedback that can significantly increase coastal carbon uptake via enhanced air-sea exchange, with potential implications to the coastal ecosystems in glaciated areas around the world.
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Keane, R E; Ryan, K C; Running, S W
1996-03-01
A mechanistic, biogeochemical succession model, FIRE-BGC, was used to investigate the role of fire on long-term landscape dynamics in northern Rocky Mountain coniferous forests of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. FIRE-BGC is an individual-tree model-created by merging the gap-phase process-based model FIRESUM with the mechanistic ecosystem biogeochemical model FOREST-BGC-that has mixed spatial and temporal resolution in its simulation architecture. Ecological processes that act at a landscape level, such as fire and seed dispersal, are simulated annually from stand and topographic information. Stand-level processes, such as tree establishment, growth and mortality, organic matter accumulation and decomposition, and undergrowth plant dynamics are simulated both daily and annually. Tree growth is mechanistically modeled based on the ecosystem process approach of FOREST-BGC where carbon is fixed daily by forest canopy photosynthesis at the stand level. Carbon allocated to the tree stem at the end of the year generates the corresponding diameter and height growth. The model also explicitly simulates fire behavior and effects on landscape characteristics. We simulated the effects of fire on ecosystem characteristics of net primary productivity, evapotranspiration, standing crop biomass, nitrogen cycling and leaf area index over 200 years for the 50,000-ha McDonald Drainage in Glacier National Park. Results show increases in net primary productivity and available nitrogen when fires are included in the simulation. Standing crop biomass and evapotranspiration decrease under a fire regime. Shade-intolerant species dominate the landscape when fires are excluded. Model tree increment predictions compared well with field data.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Ginoux, Paul; Mao, Jingqiu; Aghedo, Adetutu M.; Levy, Hiram
2013-07-01
We describe and evaluate atmospheric chemistry in the newly developed Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory chemistry-climate model (GFDL AM3) and apply it to investigate the net impact of preindustrial (PI) to present (PD) changes in short-lived pollutant emissions (ozone precursors, sulfur dioxide, and carbonaceous aerosols) and methane concentration on atmospheric composition and climate forcing. The inclusion of online troposphere-stratosphere interactions, gas-aerosol chemistry, and aerosol-cloud interactions (including direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects) in AM3 enables a more complete representation of interactions among short-lived species, and thus their net climate impact, than was considered in previous climate assessments. The base AM3 simulation, driven with observed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) over the period 1981-2007, generally reproduces the observed mean magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonal cycle of tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide. The global mean aerosol optical depth in our base simulation is within 5% of satellite measurements over the 1982-2006 time period. We conduct a pair of simulations in which only the short-lived pollutant emissions and methane concentrations are changed from PI (1860) to PD (2000) levels (i.e., SST, SIC, greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances are held at PD levels). From the PI to PD, we find that changes in short-lived pollutant emissions and methane have caused the tropospheric ozone burden to increase by 39% and the global burdens of sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon to increase by factors of 3, 2.4, and 1.4, respectively. Tropospheric hydroxyl concentration decreases by 7%, showing that increases in OH sinks (methane, carbon monoxide, nonmethane volatile organic compounds, and sulfur dioxide) dominate over sources (ozone and nitrogen oxides) in the model. Combined changes in tropospheric ozone and aerosols cause a net negative top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing perturbation (-1.05 W m-2) indicating that the negative forcing (direct plus indirect) from aerosol changes dominates over the positive forcing due to ozone increases, thus masking nearly half of the PI to PD positive forcing from long-lived greenhouse gases globally, consistent with other current generation chemistry-climate models.
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The impacts of recent permafrost thaw on land-atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange
Hayes, Daniel J.; Kicklighter, David W.; McGuire, A. David; Chen, Min; Zhuang, Qianlai; Yuan, Fengming; Melillo, Jerry M.; Wullschleger, Stan D.
2014-01-01
Permafrost thaw and the subsequent mobilization of carbon (C) stored in previously frozen soil organic matter (SOM) have the potential to be a strong positive feedback to climate. As the northern permafrost region experiences as much as a doubling of the rate of warming as the rest of the Earth, the vast amount of C in permafrost soils is vulnerable to thaw, decomposition and release as atmospheric greenhouse gases. Diagnostic and predictive estimates of high-latitude terrestrial C fluxes vary widely among different models depending on how dynamics in permafrost, and the seasonally thawed 'active layer' above it, are represented. Here, we employ a process-based model simulation experiment to assess the net effect of active layer dynamics on this 'permafrost carbon feedback' in recent decades, from 1970 to 2006, over the circumpolar domain of continuous and discontinuous permafrost. Over this time period, the model estimates a mean increase of 6.8 cm in active layer thickness across the domain, which exposes a total of 11.6 Pg C of thawed SOM to decomposition. According to our simulation experiment, mobilization of this previously frozen C results in an estimated cumulative net source of 3.7 Pg C to the atmosphere since 1970 directly tied to active layer dynamics. Enhanced decomposition from the newly exposed SOM accounts for the release of both CO2 (4.0 Pg C) and CH4 (0.03 Pg C), but is partially compensated by CO2 uptake (0.3 Pg C) associated with enhanced net primary production of vegetation. This estimated net C transfer to the atmosphere from permafrost thaw represents a significant factor in the overall ecosystem carbon budget of the Pan-Arctic, and a non-trivial additional contribution on top of the combined fossil fuel emissions from the eight Arctic nations over this time period.
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Coral reef metabolism and carbon chemistry dynamics of a coral reef flat
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Albright, Rebecca; Benthuysen, Jessica; Cantin, Neal; Caldeira, Ken; Anthony, Ken
2015-05-01
Global carbon emissions continue to acidify the oceans, motivating growing concern for the ability of coral reefs to maintain net positive calcification rates. Efforts to develop robust relationships between coral reef calcification and carbonate parameters such as aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) aim to facilitate meaningful predictions of how reef calcification will change in the face of ocean acidification. Here we investigate natural trends in carbonate chemistry of a coral reef flat over diel cycles and relate these trends to benthic carbon fluxes by quantifying net community calcification and net community production. We find that, despite an apparent dependence of calcification on Ωarag seen in a simple pairwise relationship, if the dependence of net calcification on net photosynthesis is accounted for, knowing Ωarag does not add substantial explanatory value. This suggests that, over short time scales, the control of Ωarag on net calcification is weak relative to factors governing net photosynthesis.
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Deforestation Induced Climate Change: Effects of Spatial Scale.
Longobardi, Patrick; Montenegro, Alvaro; Beltrami, Hugo; Eby, Michael
2016-01-01
Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT) response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based on simulated large scal land cover change, with complete removal of trees from whole latitude bands. Using a global climate model we examine the effects of removing fractions of 5% to 100% of forested areas in the high, mid and low latitudes. All high latitude deforestation scenarios reduce mean global SAT, the opposite occurring for low latitude deforestation, although a decrease in SAT is simulated over low latitude deforested areas. Mid latitude SAT response is mixed. In all simulations deforested areas tend to become drier and have lower SAT, although soil temperatures increase over deforested mid and low latitude grid cells. For high latitude deforestation fractions of 45% and above, larger net primary productivity, in conjunction with colder and drier conditions after deforestation cause an increase in soil carbon large enough to produce a net decrease of atmospheric CO2. Our results reveal the complex interactions between soil carbon dynamics and other climate subsystems in the energy partition responses to land cover change.
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Deforestation Induced Climate Change: Effects of Spatial Scale
Longobardi, Patrick; Montenegro, Alvaro; Beltrami, Hugo; Eby, Michael
2016-01-01
Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT) response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based on simulated large scal land cover change, with complete removal of trees from whole latitude bands. Using a global climate model we examine the effects of removing fractions of 5% to 100% of forested areas in the high, mid and low latitudes. All high latitude deforestation scenarios reduce mean global SAT, the opposite occurring for low latitude deforestation, although a decrease in SAT is simulated over low latitude deforested areas. Mid latitude SAT response is mixed. In all simulations deforested areas tend to become drier and have lower SAT, although soil temperatures increase over deforested mid and low latitude grid cells. For high latitude deforestation fractions of 45% and above, larger net primary productivity, in conjunction with colder and drier conditions after deforestation cause an increase in soil carbon large enough to produce a net decrease of atmospheric CO2. Our results reveal the complex interactions between soil carbon dynamics and other climate subsystems in the energy partition responses to land cover change. PMID:27100667
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ju, W.; Chen, J.; Liu, R.; Liu, Y.
2013-12-01
The process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model was employed in conjunction with spatially distributed leaf area index (LAI), land cover, soil, and climate data to simulate the carbon budget of global terrestrial ecosystems during the period from 1981 to 2008. The BEPS model was first calibrated and validated using gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) measured in different ecosystems across the word. Then, four global simulations were conducted at daily time steps and a spatial resolution of 8 km to quantify the global terrestrial carbon budget and to identify the relative contributions of changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and LAI to the global terrestrial carbon sink. The long term LAI data used to drive the model was generated through fusing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and historical Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data pixel by pixel. The meteorological fields were interpolated from the 0.5° global daily meteorological dataset produced by the land surface hydrological research group at Princeton University. The results show that the BEPS model was able to simulate carbon fluxes in different ecosystems. Simulated GPP, NPP, and NEP values and their temporal trends exhibited distinguishable spatial patterns. During the period from 1981 to 2008, global terrestrial ecosystems acted as a carbon sink. The averaged global totals of GPP NPP, and NEP were 122.70 Pg C yr-1, 56.89 Pg C yr-1, and 2.76 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global totals of GPP and NPP increased greatly, at rates of 0.43 Pg C yr-2 (R2=0.728) and 0.26 Pg C yr-2 (R2=0.709), respectively. Global total NEP did not show an apparent increasing trend (R2= 0.036), averaged 2.26 Pg C yr-1, 3.21 Pg C yr-1, and 2.72 Pg C yr-1 for the periods from 1981 to 1989, from 1990 to 1999, and from 2000 to 2008, respectively. The magnitude and temporal trend of global terrestrial carbon budget were similar to the values recently reported by the Global Carbon Project. The obvious increases in global GPP and NPP were mainly driven by the enhancement of atmospheric CO2 fertilization. The change of LAI played the secondary role. Climate had a small negative impact on global terrestrial carbon sequestration. The relative importance of changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and LAI in altering the temporal trend of carbon sequestration differed spatially. During the period from 2000 to 2008, terrestrial carbon sinks mainly existed in the northern region of South America, the western region of middle Africa, Southeast Asia, Southeast China, Southeast United States, and some regions of Eurasia.
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Implications of net energy-return-on-investment for a low-carbon energy transition
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
King, Lewis C.; van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.
2018-04-01
Low-carbon energy transitions aim to stay within a carbon budget that limits potential climate change to 2 °C—or well below—through a substantial growth in renewable energy sources alongside improved energy efficiency and carbon capture and storage. Current scenarios tend to overlook their low net energy returns compared to the existing fossil fuel infrastructure. Correcting from gross to net energy, we show that a low-carbon transition would probably lead to a 24-31% decline in net energy per capita by 2050, which implies a strong reversal of the recent rising trends of 0.5% per annum. Unless vast end-use efficiency savings can be achieved in the coming decades, current lifestyles might be impaired. To maintain the present net energy returns, solar and wind renewable power sources should grow two to three times faster than in other proposals. We suggest a new indicator, `energy return on carbon', to assist in maximizing the net energy from the remaining carbon budget.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ogée, Jerome; Wehr, Richard; Commane, Roisin; Launois, Thomas; Meredith, Laura; Munger, Bill; Nelson, David; Saleska, Scott; Zahniser, Mark; Wofsy, Steve; Wingate, Lisa
2016-04-01
The net flux of carbon dioxide between the land surface and the atmosphere is dominated by photosynthesis and soil respiration, two of the largest gross CO2 fluxes in the carbon cycle. More robust estimates of these gross fluxes could be obtained from the atmospheric budgets of other valuable tracers, such as carbonyl sulfide (COS) or the carbon and oxygen isotope compositions (δ13C and δ18O) of atmospheric CO2. Over the past decades, the global atmospheric flask network has measured the inter-annual and intra-annual variations in the concentrations of these tracers. However, knowledge gaps and a lack of high-resolution multi-tracer ecosystem-scale measurements have hindered the development of process-based models that can simulate the behaviour of each tracer in response to environmental drivers. We present novel datasets of net ecosystem COS, 13CO2 and CO18O exchange and vertical profile data collected over 3 consecutive growing seasons (2011-2013) at the Harvard forest flux site. We then used the process-based model MuSICA (multi-layer Simulator of the Interactions between vegetation Canopy and the Atmosphere) to include the transport, reaction, diffusion and production of each tracer within the forest and exchanged with the atmosphere. Model simulations over the three years captured well the impact of diurnally and seasonally varying environmental conditions on the net ecosystem exchange of each tracer. The model also captured well the dynamic vertical features of tracer behaviour within the canopy. This unique dataset and model sensitivity analysis highlights the benefit in the collection of multi-tracer high-resolution field datasets and the developement of multi-tracer land surface models to provide valuable constraints on photosynthesis and respiration across scales in the near future.
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A Simulation Model of Carbon Cycling and Methane Emissions in Amazon Wetlands
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Potter, Christopher; Melack, John; Hess, Laura; Forsberg, Bruce; Novo, Evlyn Moraes; Klooster, Steven
2004-01-01
An integrative carbon study is investigating the hypothesis that measured fluxes of methane from wetlands in the Amazon region can be predicted accurately using a combination of process modeling of ecosystem carbon cycles and remote sensing of regional floodplain dynamics. A new simulation model has been build using the NASA- CASA concept for predicting methane production and emission fluxes in Amazon river and floodplain ecosystems. Numerous innovations area being made to model Amazon wetland ecosystems, including: (1) prediction of wetland net primary production (NPP) as the source for plant litter decomposition and accumulation of sediment organic matter in two major vegetation classes - flooded forests (varzea or igapo) and floating macrophytes, (2) representation of controls on carbon processing and methane evasion at the diffusive boundary layer, through the lake water column, and in wetland sediments as a function of changes in floodplain water level, (3) inclusion of surface emissions controls on wetland methane fluxes, including variations in daily surface temperature and of hydrostatic pressure linked to water level fluctuations. A model design overview and early simulation results are presented.
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Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hoogakker, B. A. A.; Smith, R. S.; Singarayer, J. S.; Marchant, R.; Prentice, I. C.; Allen, J. R. M.; Anderson, R. S.; Bhagwat, S. A.; Behling, H.; Borisova, O.; Bush, M.; Correa-Metrio, A.; de Vernal, A.; Finch, J. M.; Fréchette, B.; Lozano-Garcia, S.; Gosling, W. D.; Granoszewski, W.; Grimm, E. C.; Grüger, E.; Hanselman, J.; Harrison, S. P.; Hill, T. R.; Huntley, B.; Jiménez-Moreno, G.; Kershaw, P.; Ledru, M.-P.; Magri, D.; McKenzie, M.; Müller, U.; Nakagawa, T.; Novenko, E.; Penny, D.; Sadori, L.; Scott, L.; Stevenson, J.; Valdes, P. J.; Vandergoes, M.; Velichko, A.; Whitlock, C.; Tzedakis, C.
2016-01-01
A new global synthesis and biomization of long (> 40 kyr) pollen-data records is presented and used with simulations from the HadCM3 and FAMOUS climate models and the BIOME4 vegetation model to analyse the dynamics of the global terrestrial biosphere and carbon storage over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Simulated biome distributions using BIOME4 driven by HadCM3 and FAMOUS at the global scale over time generally agree well with those inferred from pollen data. Global average areas of grassland and dry shrubland, desert, and tundra biomes show large-scale increases during the Last Glacial Maximum, between ca. 64 and 74 ka BP and cool substages of Marine Isotope Stage 5, at the expense of the tropical forest, warm-temperate forest, and temperate forest biomes. These changes are reflected in BIOME4 simulations of global net primary productivity, showing good agreement between the two models. Such changes are likely to affect terrestrial carbon storage, which in turn influences the stable carbon isotopic composition of seawater as terrestrial carbon is depleted in 13C.
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Berberoglu, S; Donmez, C; Evrendilek, F
2015-04-01
The aim of this study was to simulate impacts of regional climate change in the 2070s on carbon (C) cycle of a Mediterranean watershed combining field measurements, Envisat MERIS and IKONOS data, and the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach model. Simulation results indicated that the present total C sink status (1.36 Mt C year(-1)) of Mediterranean evergreen needleleaf forest, grassland and cropland ecosystems is expected to weaken by 7.6% in response to the climate change in the 2070s (Mt=10(12) g). This decreasing trend was mirrored in soil respiration (R H), aboveground and belowground net primary production (NPP), NEP, and net biome production (NBP). The decrease in NEP in the 2070s was the highest (21.9%) for mixed forest where the smallest present C sink of 0.03 Mt C year(-1) was estimated. The average present net ecosystem production (NEP) values were estimated at 110±15, 75±19, and 41±25 g C m(-2) years(-1) in forest, grassland, and cropland, respectively, with a watershed-scale mean of 95±30 g C m(-2) years(-1). The largest present C sink was in grassland, with a total C pool of 0.55 Mt C year(-1), through its greater spatial extent.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gottschalk, P.; Churkina, G.; Wattenbach, M.; Cubasch, U.
2010-12-01
The impact of urban systems on current and future global carbon emissions has been a focus of several studies. Many mitigation options in terms of increasing energy efficiency are discussed. However, apart from technical mitigation potential urban systems also have a considerable biogenic potential to mitigate carbon through an optimized management of organic carbon pools of vegetation and soil. Berlin city area comprises almost 50% of areas covered with vegetation or largely covered with vegetation. This potentially offers various areas for carbon mitigation actions. To assess the mitigation potentials our first objective is to estimate how large current vegetation and soil carbon stocks of Berlin are. We use publicly available forest and soil inventories to calculate soil organic carbon of non-pervious areas and forest standing biomass carbon. This research highlights data-gaps and assigns uncertainty ranges to estimated carbon resources. The second objective is to assess the carbon mitigation potential of Berlin’s vegetation and soils using a biogeochemical simulation model. BIOME-BGC simulates carbon-, nitrogen- and water-fluxes of ecosystems mechanistically. First, its applicability for Berlin forests is tested at selected sites. A spatial application gives an estimate of current net carbon fluxes. The application of such a model allows determining the sensitivity of key ecosystem processes (e.g. carbon gains through photosynthesis, carbon losses through decomposition) towards external drivers. This information can then be used to optimise forest management in terms of carbon mitigation. Initial results of Berlin’s current carbon stocks and its spatial distribution and preliminary simulations results will be presented.
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Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Yu, S.; Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Ju, W.
2011-01-01
The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101,800 km2, mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA, HC3GG, CGCM-sresa2, and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical biomass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data, which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr-1 during the last half of the 21st century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21st century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr-1. NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr-1 by the end of the 21st century with the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. However, climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO2 concentration will have little contribution to vegetation changes. Simulated NPP shows geographic patterns consistent with temperature to a certain extent, and precipitation is not the limiting factor for forest NPP in the subtropical climate conditions. There is no close relationship between the spatial pattern of NEP and climate condition.
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Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Yu, S.; Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Ju, W.
2011-01-01
The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO 2 fertilization on net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101,800 km 2, mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA, HC3GG, CGCM-sresa2, and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical biomass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data, which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr -1 during the last half of the 21 st century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21 st century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO 2 and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr -1. NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr -1 by the end of the 21 st century with the increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate change. However, climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO 2 concentration will have little contribution to vegetation changes. Simulated NPP shows geographic patterns consistent with temperature to a certain extent, and precipitation is not the limiting factor for forest NPP in the subtropical climate conditions. There is no close relationship between the spatial pattern of NEP and climate condition.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Zhang, Li; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying
The Community Land Model (CLM) is an advanced process-based land surface model that simulates carbon, nitrogen, water vapor and energy exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere at various spatial and temporal scales. We use observed carbon and water fluxes from five representative Chinese Terrestrial Ecosystem Flux Research Network (ChinaFLUX) eddy covariance tower sites to systematically evaluate the new version CLM4.5 and old version CLM4.0, and to generate insights that may inform future model developments. CLM4.5 underestimates the annual carbon sink at three forest sites and one alpine grassland site but overestimates the carbon sink of a semi-arid grassland site.more » The annual carbon sink underestimation for the deciduous-dominated forest site results from underestimated daytime carbon sequestration during summer and overestimated nighttime carbon emission during spring and autumn. Compared to CLM4.0, the bias of annual gross primary production (GPP) is reduced by 24% and 28% in CLM4.5 at two subtropical forest sites. However, CLM4.5 still presents a large positive bias in annual GPP. The improvement in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) is limited, although soil respiration bias decreases by 16%–43% at three forest sites. CLM4.5 simulates lower soil water content in the dry season than CLM4.0 at two grassland sites. Drier soils produce a significant drop in the leaf area index and in GPP and an increase in respiration for CLM4.5. The new fire parameterization approach in CLM4.5 causes excessive burning at the Changbaishan forest site, resulting in an unexpected underestimation of NEE, vegetation carbon, and soil organic carbon by 46%, 95%, and 87%, respectively. Altogether, our study reveals significant improvements achieved by CLM4.5 compared to CLM4.0, and suggests further developments on the parameterization of seasonal GPP and respiration, which will require a more effective representation of seasonal water conditions and the partitioning of net radiation between sensible and heat fluxes.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nakayama, Tadanobu
2017-04-01
Recent research showed that inland water including rivers, lakes, and groundwater may play some role in carbon cycling, although its contribution has remained uncertain due to limited amount of reliable data available. In this study, the author developed an advanced model coupling eco-hydrology and biogeochemical cycle (National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE)-BGC). This new model incorporates complex coupling of hydrologic-carbon cycle in terrestrial-aquatic linkages and interplay between inorganic and organic carbon during the whole process of carbon cycling. The model could simulate both horizontal transports (export from land to inland water 2.01 ± 1.98 Pg C/yr and transported to ocean 1.13 ± 0.50 Pg C/yr) and vertical fluxes (degassing 0.79 ± 0.38 Pg C/yr, and sediment storage 0.20 ± 0.09 Pg C/yr) in major rivers in good agreement with previous researches, which was an improved estimate of carbon flux from previous studies. The model results also showed global net land flux simulated by NICE-BGC (-1.05 ± 0.62 Pg C/yr) decreased carbon sink a little in comparison with revised Lund-Potsdam-Jena Wetland Hydrology and Methane (-1.79 ± 0.64 Pg C/yr) and previous materials (-2.8 to -1.4 Pg C/yr). This is attributable to CO2 evasion and lateral carbon transport explicitly included in the model, and the result suggests that most previous researches have generally overestimated the accumulation of terrestrial carbon and underestimated the potential for lateral transport. The results further implied difference between inverse techniques and budget estimates suggested can be explained to some extent by a net source from inland water. NICE-BGC would play an important role in reevaluation of greenhouse gas budget of the biosphere, quantification of hot spots, and bridging the gap between top-down and bottom-up approaches to global carbon budget.
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Fischer, Paul W; Cullen, Alison C; Ettl, Gregory J
2017-01-01
The objectives of this study are to understand tradeoffs between forest carbon and timber values, and evaluate the impact of uncertainty in improved forest management (IFM) carbon offset projects to improve forest management decisions. The study uses probabilistic simulation of uncertainty in financial risk for three management scenarios (clearcutting in 45- and 65-year rotations and no harvest) under three carbon price schemes (historic voluntary market prices, cap and trade, and carbon prices set to equal net present value (NPV) from timber-oriented management). Uncertainty is modeled for value and amount of carbon credits and wood products, the accuracy of forest growth model forecasts, and four other variables relevant to American Carbon Registry methodology. Calculations use forest inventory data from a 1,740 ha forest in western Washington State, using the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) growth model. Sensitivity analysis shows that FVS model uncertainty contributes more than 70% to overall NPV variance, followed in importance by variability in inventory sample (3-14%), and short-term prices for timber products (8%), while variability in carbon credit price has little influence (1.1%). At regional average land-holding costs, a no-harvest management scenario would become revenue-positive at a carbon credit break-point price of $14.17/Mg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). IFM carbon projects are associated with a greater chance of both large payouts and large losses to landowners. These results inform policymakers and forest owners of the carbon credit price necessary for IFM approaches to equal or better the business-as-usual strategy, while highlighting the magnitude of financial risk and reward through probabilistic simulation. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sulman, B. N.; Phillips, R.; Shevliakova, E.; Oishi, A. C.; Pacala, S. W.
2014-12-01
The sensitivity of soil organic carbon (SOC) to changing environmental conditions represents a critical uncertainty in coupled carbon cycle-climate models. Much of this uncertainty arises from our limited understanding of the extent to which plants induce SOC losses (through accelerated decomposition or "priming") or promote SOC gains (via stabilization through physico-chemical protection). We developed a new SOC model, "Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment" (CORPSE), to examine the net effect of priming and protection in response to rising atmospheric CO2, and conducted simulations of rhizosphere priming effects at both ecosystem and global scales. At the ecosystem scale, the model successfully captured and explained disparate SOC responses at the Duke and Oak Ridge free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments. We show that stabilization of "new" carbon in protected SOC pools may equal or exceed microbial priming of "old" SOC in ecosystems with readily decomposable litter (e.g. Oak Ridge). In contrast, carbon losses owing to priming dominate the net SOC response in ecosystems with more resistant litters (e.g. Duke). For global simulations, the model was fully integrated into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model LM3. Globally, priming effects driven by enhanced root exudation and expansion of the rhizosphere reduced SOC storage in the majority of terrestrial areas, partially counterbalancing SOC gains from the enhanced ecosystem productivity driven by CO2 fertilization. Collectively, our results suggest that SOC stocks globally depend not only on temperature and moisture, but also on vegetation responses to environmental changes, and that protected C may provide an important constraint on priming effects.
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Estimated Annual Net Change in Soil Carbon per US County, 1990-2004
West, Tristram O.; Brandt, Craig C.; Wilson, Bradly S.; Hellwinckel, Chap M.; Tyler, Donald D.; Marland, Gregg; De La Torre Ugarte, Daniel D.; Larson, James A.; Nelson, Richard G.
2008-01-01
These data represent the estimated net change (Megagram per year) in soil carbon due to changes in the crop type and tillage intensity. Estimated accumulation of soil carbon under Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)lands is included in these estimates. Negative values represent a net flux from the atmosphere to the soil; positive values represent a net flux from the soil to the atmosphere. As such, soil carbon sequestration is represented here as a negative value.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Potter, C.; Klooster, S.; Huete, A.; Genovese, V.; Bustamante, M.; Ferreira, L. Guimaraes; deOliveira, R. C., Jr.; Zepp, R.
2009-01-01
A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado regions over the period 2000-2004. Net ecosystem production (NEP) flux for atmospheric CO2 in the region for these years was estimated. Consistently high carbon sink fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems on a yearly basis were found in the western portions of the states of Acre and Rondonia and the northern portions of the state of Par a. These areas were not significantly impacted by the 2002-2003 El Nino event in terms of net annual carbon gains. Areas of the region that show periodically high carbon source fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere on yearly basis were found throughout the state of Maranhao and the southern portions of the state of Amazonas. As demonstrated though tower site comparisons, NEP modeled with monthly MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) inputs closely resembles the measured seasonal carbon fluxes at the LBA Tapajos tower site. Modeling results suggest that the capacity for use of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data to predict seasonal uptake rates of CO2 in Amazon forests and Cerrado woodlands is strong.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Mahowald, Natalie; Rothenberg, D.; Lindsay, Keith
2011-02-01
Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climatemore » feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.« less
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Tropical forests are a net carbon source based on aboveground measurements of gain and loss
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baccini, A.; Walker, W.; Carvalho, L.; Farina, M.; Sulla-Menashe, D.; Houghton, R. A.
2017-10-01
The carbon balance of tropical ecosystems remains uncertain, with top-down atmospheric studies suggesting an overall sink and bottom-up ecological approaches indicating a modest net source. Here we use 12 years (2003 to 2014) of MODIS pantropical satellite data to quantify net annual changes in the aboveground carbon density of tropical woody live vegetation, providing direct, measurement-based evidence that the world’s tropical forests are a net carbon source of 425.2 ± 92.0 teragrams of carbon per year (Tg C year-1). This net release of carbon consists of losses of 861.7 ± 80.2 Tg C year-1 and gains of 436.5 ± 31.0 Tg C year-1. Gains result from forest growth; losses result from deforestation and from reductions in carbon density within standing forests (degradation or disturbance), with the latter accounting for 68.9% of overall losses.
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Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon 'dieback'.
Huntingford, Chris; Fisher, Rosie A; Mercado, Lina; Booth, Ben B B; Sitch, Stephen; Harris, Phil P; Cox, Peter M; Jones, Chris D; Betts, Richard A; Malhi, Yadvinder; Harris, Glen R; Collins, Mat; Moorcroft, Paul
2008-05-27
Simulations with the Hadley Centre general circulation model (HadCM3), including carbon cycle model and forced by a 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario, predict a rapid loss of Amazonian rainforest from the middle of this century onwards. The robustness of this projection to both uncertainty in physical climate drivers and the formulation of the land surface scheme is investigated. We analyse how the modelled vegetation cover in Amazonia responds to (i) uncertainty in the parameters specified in the atmosphere component of HadCM3 and their associated influence on predicted surface climate. We then enhance the land surface description and (ii) implement a multilayer canopy light interception model and compare with the simple 'big-leaf' approach used in the original simulations. Finally, (iii) we investigate the effect of changing the method of simulating vegetation dynamics from an area-based model (TRIFFID) to a more complex size- and age-structured approximation of an individual-based model (ecosystem demography). We find that the loss of Amazonian rainforest is robust across the climate uncertainty explored by perturbed physics simulations covering a wide range of global climate sensitivity. The introduction of the refined light interception model leads to an increase in simulated gross plant carbon uptake for the present day, but, with altered respiration, the net effect is a decrease in net primary productivity. However, this does not significantly affect the carbon loss from vegetation and soil as a consequence of future simulated depletion in soil moisture; the Amazon forest is still lost. The introduction of the more sophisticated dynamic vegetation model reduces but does not halt the rate of forest dieback. The potential for human-induced climate change to trigger the loss of Amazon rainforest appears robust within the context of the uncertainties explored in this paper. Some further uncertainties should be explored, particularly with respect to the representation of rooting depth.
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Radiative effects of interannually varying vs. interannually invariant aerosol emissions from fires
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Grandey, Benjamin S.; Lee, Hsiang-He; Wang, Chien
Open-burning fires play an important role in the earth's climate system. In addition to contributing a substantial fraction of global emissions of carbon dioxide, they are a major source of atmospheric aerosols containing organic carbon, black carbon, and sulfate. These “fire aerosols” can influence the climate via direct and indirect radiative effects. In this study, we investigate these radiative effects and the hydrological fast response using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Emissions of fire aerosols exert a global mean net radiative effect of −1.0 W m −2, dominated by the cloud shortwave response to organic carbon aerosol. The net radiative effectmore » is particularly strong over boreal regions. Conventionally, many climate modelling studies have used an interannually invariant monthly climatology of emissions of fire aerosols. However, by comparing simulations using interannually varying emissions vs. interannually invariant emissions, we find that ignoring the interannual variability of the emissions can lead to systematic overestimation of the strength of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols. Globally, the overestimation is +23 % (−0.2 W m −2). Regionally, the overestimation can be substantially larger. For example, over Australia and New Zealand the overestimation is +58 % (−1.2 W m −2), while over Boreal Asia the overestimation is +43 % (−1.9 W m −2). The systematic overestimation of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols is likely due to the non-linear influence of aerosols on clouds. However, ignoring interannual variability in the emissions does not appear to significantly impact the hydrological fast response. In order to improve understanding of the climate system, we need to take into account the interannual variability of aerosol emissions.« less
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Radiative effects of interannually varying vs. interannually invariant aerosol emissions from fires
Grandey, Benjamin S.; Lee, Hsiang-He; Wang, Chien
2016-11-23
Open-burning fires play an important role in the earth's climate system. In addition to contributing a substantial fraction of global emissions of carbon dioxide, they are a major source of atmospheric aerosols containing organic carbon, black carbon, and sulfate. These “fire aerosols” can influence the climate via direct and indirect radiative effects. In this study, we investigate these radiative effects and the hydrological fast response using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Emissions of fire aerosols exert a global mean net radiative effect of −1.0 W m −2, dominated by the cloud shortwave response to organic carbon aerosol. The net radiative effectmore » is particularly strong over boreal regions. Conventionally, many climate modelling studies have used an interannually invariant monthly climatology of emissions of fire aerosols. However, by comparing simulations using interannually varying emissions vs. interannually invariant emissions, we find that ignoring the interannual variability of the emissions can lead to systematic overestimation of the strength of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols. Globally, the overestimation is +23 % (−0.2 W m −2). Regionally, the overestimation can be substantially larger. For example, over Australia and New Zealand the overestimation is +58 % (−1.2 W m −2), while over Boreal Asia the overestimation is +43 % (−1.9 W m −2). The systematic overestimation of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols is likely due to the non-linear influence of aerosols on clouds. However, ignoring interannual variability in the emissions does not appear to significantly impact the hydrological fast response. In order to improve understanding of the climate system, we need to take into account the interannual variability of aerosol emissions.« less
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Wang, Jinyang; Zhang, Xiaolin; Liu, Yinglie; Pan, Xiaojian; Liu, Pingli; Chen, Zhaozhi; Huang, Taiqing; Xiong, Zhengqin
2012-01-01
Background Evaluating the net exchange of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in conjunction with soil carbon sequestration may give a comprehensive insight on the role of agricultural production in global warming. Materials and Methods Measured data of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were utilized to test the applicability of the Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC) model to a winter wheat – single rice rotation system in southern China. Six alternative scenarios were simulated against the baseline scenario to evaluate their long-term (45-year) impacts on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI). Principal Results The simulated cumulative CH4 emissions fell within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, with the exception of N2O emissions during rice-growing season and both gases from the control treatment. Sensitivity tests showed that both CH4 and N2O emissions were significantly affected by changes in both environmental factors and management practices. Compared with the baseline scenario, the long-term simulation had the following results: (1) high straw return and manure amendment scenarios greatly increased CH4 emissions, while other scenarios had similar CH4 emissions, (2) high inorganic N fertilizer increased N2O emissions while manure amendment and reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenarios decreased N2O emissions, (3) the mean annual soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR) under manure amendment, high straw return, and no-tillage scenarios averaged 0.20 t C ha−1 yr−1, being greater than other scenarios, and (4) the reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario produced the least N loss from the system, while all the scenarios produced comparable grain yields. Conclusions In terms of net GWP and GHGI for the comprehensive assessment of climate change and crop production, reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario followed by no-tillage scenario would be advocated for this specified cropping system. PMID:23029173
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Raczka, Brett; Duarte, Henrique F.; Koven, Charles D.; Ricciuto, Daniel; Thornton, Peter E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.
2016-09-01
Land surface models are useful tools to quantify contemporary and future climate impact on terrestrial carbon cycle processes, provided they can be appropriately constrained and tested with observations. Stable carbon isotopes of CO2 offer the potential to improve model representation of the coupled carbon and water cycles because they are strongly influenced by stomatal function. Recently, a representation of stable carbon isotope discrimination was incorporated into the Community Land Model component of the Community Earth System Model. Here, we tested the model's capability to simulate whole-forest isotope discrimination in a subalpine conifer forest at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. We distinguished between isotopic behavior in response to a decrease of δ13C within atmospheric CO2 (Suess effect) vs. photosynthetic discrimination (Δcanopy), by creating a site-customized atmospheric CO2 and δ13C of CO2 time series. We implemented a seasonally varying Vcmax model calibration that best matched site observations of net CO2 carbon exchange, latent heat exchange, and biomass. The model accurately simulated observed δ13C of needle and stem tissue, but underestimated the δ13C of bulk soil carbon by 1-2 ‰. The model overestimated the multiyear (2006-2012) average Δcanopy relative to prior data-based estimates by 2-4 ‰. The amplitude of the average seasonal cycle of Δcanopy (i.e., higher in spring/fall as compared to summer) was correctly modeled but only when using a revised, fully coupled An - gs (net assimilation rate, stomatal conductance) version of the model in contrast to the partially coupled An - gs version used in the default model. The model attributed most of the seasonal variation in discrimination to An, whereas interannual variation in simulated Δcanopy during the summer months was driven by stomatal response to vapor pressure deficit (VPD). The model simulated a 10 % increase in both photosynthetic discrimination and water-use efficiency (WUE) since 1850 which is counter to established relationships between discrimination and WUE. The isotope observations used here to constrain CLM suggest (1) the model overestimated stomatal conductance and (2) the default CLM approach to representing nitrogen limitation (partially coupled model) was not capable of reproducing observed trends in discrimination. These findings demonstrate that isotope observations can provide important information related to stomatal function driven by environmental stress from VPD and nitrogen limitation. Future versions of CLM that incorporate carbon isotope discrimination are likely to benefit from explicit inclusion of mesophyll conductance.
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Improved simulation of poorly drained forests using Biome-BGC.
Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Gower, Stith T; Ahl, Douglas E
2007-05-01
Forested wetlands and peatlands are important in boreal and terrestrial biogeochemical cycling, but most general-purpose forest process models are designed and parameterized for upland systems. We describe changes made to Biome-BGC, an ecophysiological process model, that improve its ability to simulate poorly drained forests. Model changes allowed for: (1) lateral water inflow from a surrounding watershed, and variable surface and subsurface drainage; (2) adverse effects of anoxic soil on decomposition and nutrient mineralization; (3) closure of leaf stomata in flooded soils; and (4) growth of nonvascular plants (i.e., bryophytes). Bryophytes were treated as ectohydric broadleaf evergreen plants with zero stomatal conductance, whose cuticular conductance to CO(2) was dependent on plant water content. Individual model changes were parameterized with published data, and ecosystem-level model performance was assessed by comparing simulated output to field data from the northern BOREAS site in Manitoba, Canada. The simulation of the poorly drained forest model exhibited reduced decomposition and vascular plant growth (-90%) compared with that of the well-drained forest model; the integrated bryophyte photosynthetic response accorded well with published data. Simulated net primary production, biomass and soil carbon accumulation broadly agreed with field measurements, although simulated net primary production was higher than observed data in well-drained stands. Simulated net primary production in the poorly drained forest was most sensitive to oxygen restriction on soil processes, and secondarily to stomatal closure in flooded conditions. The modified Biome-BGC remains unable to simulate true wetlands that are subject to prolonged flooding, because it does not track organic soil formation, water table changes, soil redox potential or anaerobic processes.
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Wang, Shaoqiang; Zhou, Lei; Chen, Jingming; Ju, Weimin; Feng, Xianfeng; Wu, Weixing
2011-06-01
Affected by natural and anthropogenic disturbances such as forest fires, insect-induced mortality and harvesting, forest stand age plays an important role in determining the distribution of carbon pools and fluxes in a variety of forest ecosystems. An improved understanding of the relationship between net primary productivity (NPP) and stand age (i.e., age-related increase and decline in forest productivity) is essential for the simulation and prediction of the global carbon cycle at annual, decadal, centurial, or even longer temporal scales. In this paper, we developed functions describing the relationship between national mean NPP and stand age using stand age information derived from forest inventory data and NPP simulated by the BEPS (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator) model in 2001. Due to differences in ecobiophysical characteristics of different forest types, NPP-age equations were developed for five typical forest ecosystems in China (deciduous needleleaf forest (DNF), evergreen needleleaf forest in tropic and subtropical zones (ENF-S), deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF), evergreen broadleaf forest (EBF), and mixed broadleaf forest (MBF)). For DNF, ENF-S, EBF, and MBF, changes in NPP with age were well fitted with a common non-linear function, with R(2) values equal to 0.90, 0.75, 0.66, and 0.67, respectively. In contrast, a second order polynomial was best suitable for simulating the change of NPP for DBF, with an R(2) value of 0.79. The timing and magnitude of the maximum NPP varied with forest types. DNF, EBF, and MBF reached the peak NPP at the age of 54, 40, and 32 years, respectively, while the NPP of ENF-S maximizes at the age of 13 years. The highest NPP of DBF appeared at 122 years. NPP was generally lower in older stands with the exception of DBF, and this particular finding runs counter to the paradigm of age-related decline in forest growth. Evaluation based on measurements of NPP and stand age at the plot-level demonstrates the reliability and applicability of the fitted NPP-age relationships. These relationships were used to replace the normalized NPP-age relationship used in the original InTEC (Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon) model, to improve the accuracy of estimated carbon balance for China's forest ecosystems. With the revised NPP-age relationship, the InTEC model simulated a larger carbon source from 1950-1980 and a larger carbon sink from 1985-2001 for China's forests than the original InTEC model did because of the modification to the age-related carbon dynamics in forests. This finding confirms the importance of considering the dynamics of NPP related to forest age in estimating regional and global terrestrial carbon budgets. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dymond, Caren C.; Beukema, Sarah; Nitschke, Craig R.; Coates, K. David; Scheller, Robert M.
2016-03-01
Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper-Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities.
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Geomorphic control of landscape carbon accumulation
Rosenbloom, N.A.; Harden, J.W.; Neff, J.C.; Schimel, D.S.
2006-01-01
We use the CREEP process-response model to simulate soil organic carbon accumulation in an undisturbed prairie site in Iowa. Our primary objectives are to identify spatial patterns of carbon accumulation, and explore the effect of erosion on basin-scale C accumulation. Our results point to two general findings. First, redistribution of soil carbon by erosion results in a net increase in basin-wide carbon storage relative to a noneroding environment. Landscape-average mean residence times are increased in an eroding landscape owing to the burial/preservation of otherwise labile C. Second, field observations taken along a slope transect may overlook significant intraslope variations in carbon accumulation. Spatial patterns of modeled deep C accumulation are complex. While surface carbon with its relatively short equilibration time is predictable from surface properties, deep carbon is strongly influenced by the landscape's geomorphic and climatic history, resulting in wide spatial variability. Convergence and divergence associated with upland swales and interfluves result in bimodal carbon distributions in upper and mid slopes; variability in carbon storage within modeled mid slopes was as high as simulated differences between erosional shoulders and depositional valley bottoms. The bimodality of mid-slope C variability in the model suggests that a three-dimensional sampling strategy is preferable over the traditional two-dimensional analog or "catena" approach. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
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Biome-specific scaling of ocean productivity, temperature, and carbon export efficiency
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Britten, Gregory L.; Primeau, François W.
2016-05-01
Mass conservation and metabolic theory place constraints on how marine export production (EP) scales with net primary productivity (NPP) and sea surface temperature (SST); however, little is empirically known about how these relationships vary across ecologically distinct ocean biomes. Here we compiled in situ observations of EP, NPP, and SST and used statistical model selection theory to demonstrate significant biome-specific scaling relationships among these variables. Multiple statistically similar models yield a threefold variation in the globally integrated carbon flux (~4-12 Pg C yr-1) when applied to climatological satellite-derived NPP and SST. Simulated NPP and SST input variables from a 4×CO2 climate model experiment further show that biome-specific scaling alters the predicted response of EP to simulated increases of atmospheric CO2. These results highlight the need to better understand distinct pathways of carbon export across unique ecological biomes and may help guide proposed efforts for in situ observations of the ocean carbon cycle.
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The imprint of surface fluxes and transport on variations in total column carbon dioxide
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Keppel-Aleks, G; Wennberg, PO; Washenfelder, RA
2012-01-01
New observations of the vertically integrated CO{sub 2} mixing ratio,
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The imprint of surface fluxes and transport on variations in total column carbon dioxide
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Keppel-Aleks, G.; Wennberg, P. O.; Washenfelder, R. A.; Wunch, D.; Schneider, T.; Toon, G. C.; Andres, R. J.; Blavier, J.-F.; Connor, B.; Davis, K. J.; Desai, A. R.; Messerschmidt, J.; Notholt, J.; Roehl, C. M.; Sherlock, V.; Stephens, B. B.; Vay, S. A.; Wofsy, S. C.
2012-03-01
New observations of the vertically integrated CO2 mixing ratio, ⟨CO2⟩, from ground-based remote sensing show that variations in CO2⟩ are primarily determined by large-scale flux patterns. They therefore provide fundamentally different information than observations made within the boundary layer, which reflect the combined influence of large-scale and local fluxes. Observations of both ⟨CO2⟩ and CO2 concentrations in the free troposphere show that large-scale spatial gradients induce synoptic-scale temporal variations in ⟨CO2⟩ in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes through horizontal advection. Rather than obscure the signature of surface fluxes on atmospheric CO2, these synoptic-scale variations provide useful information that can be used to reveal the meridional flux distribution. We estimate the meridional gradient in ⟨CO2⟩ from covariations in ⟨CO2⟩ and potential temperature, θ, a dynamical tracer, on synoptic timescales to evaluate surface flux estimates commonly used in carbon cycle models. We find that simulations using Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) biospheric fluxes underestimate both the ⟨CO2⟩ seasonal cycle amplitude throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and the meridional gradient during the growing season. Simulations using CASA net ecosystem exchange (NEE) with increased and phase-shifted boreal fluxes better fit the observations. Our simulations suggest that climatological mean CASA fluxes underestimate boreal growing season NEE (between 45-65° N) by ~40%. We describe the implications for this large seasonal exchange on inference of the net Northern Hemisphere terrestrial carbon sink.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hagen, S. C.; Harris, N.; Saatchi, S. S.; Domke, G. M.; Woodall, C. W.; Pearson, T.
2016-12-01
We generated spatially comprehensive maps of carbon stocks and net carbon changes from US forestlands between 2005 and 2010 and attributed the changes to natural and anthropogenic processes. The prototype system created to produce these maps is designed to assist with national GHG inventories and support decisions associated with land management. Here, we present the results and methodological framework of our analysis. In summary, combining estimates of net C losses and gains results in net carbon change of 269±49 Tg C yr-1 (sink) in the coterminous US forest land, with carbon loss from harvest acting as the predominent source process.
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Ito, Akihiko
2010-07-01
Using a process-based model, I assessed how ecophysiological processes would respond to near-future global changes predicted by coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models. An ecosystem model, Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases (VISIT), was applied to four sites in East Asia (different types of forest in Takayama, Tomakomai, and Fujiyoshida, Japan, and an Alpine grassland in Qinghai, China) where observational flux data are available for model calibration. The climate models predicted +1-3 degrees C warming and slight change in annual precipitation by 2050 as a result of an increase in atmospheric CO2. Gross primary production (GPP) was estimated to increase substantially at each site because of improved efficiency in the use of water and radiation. Although increased respiration partly offset the GPP increase, the simulation showed that these ecosystems would act as net carbon sinks independent of disturbance-induced uptake for recovery. However, the carbon budget response relied strongly on nitrogen availability, such that photosynthetic down-regulation resulting from leaf nitrogen dilution largely decreased GPP. In relation to long-term monitoring, these results indicate that the impacts of global warming may be more evident in gross fluxes (e.g., photosynthesis and respiration) than in the net CO2 budget, because changes in these fluxes offset each other.
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Jingfeng Xiao; Qianlai Zhuang; Dennis D. Baldocchi; Beverly E. Law; Andrew D. Richardson; Jiquan Chen; Ram Oren; Gegory Starr; Asko Noormets; Siyan Ma; Sashi B. Verma; Sonia Wharton; Steven C. Wofsy; Paul V. Bolstad; Sean P. Burns; David R. Cook; Peter S. Curtis; Bert G. Drake; Matthias Falk; MArc L. Fischer; David R. Foster; Lianhong Gu; Julian L. Hadley; David Y. Hollinger; Gabriel G. Katul; Marcy Litvak; Timothy Martin; Roser Matamala; Steve McNulty; Tilden P. Meyers; Russell K. Monson; J. William Munger; Walter C. Oechel; Kyaw Tha Paw U; Hans Peter Schmid; Russell L. Scott; Ge Sun; Andrew E. Suyker; Margaret S. Torn
2008-01-01
Eddy covariance flux towers provide continuous measurements of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) for a wide range of climate and biome types. However, these measurements only represent the carbon fluxes at the scale of the tower footprint. To quantify the net exchange of carbon dioxide between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere for regions or continents,...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Wei; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Yilong; Yin, Yi; Peng, Shushi; Zhu, Zaichun; Bastos, Ana; Yue, Chao; Ballantyne, Ashley P.; Broquet, Grégoire; Canadell, Josep G.; Cescatti, Alessandro; Chen, Chi; Cooper, Leila; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Le Quéré, Corinne; Myneni, Ranga B.; Piao, Shilong
2018-01-01
To assess global carbon cycle variability, we decompose the net land carbon sink into the sum of gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER), and fire emissions and apply a Bayesian framework to constrain these fluxes between 1980 and 2014. The constrained GPP and TER fluxes show an increasing trend of only half of the prior trend simulated by models. From the optimization, we infer that TER increased in parallel with GPP from 1980 to 1990, but then stalled during the cooler periods, in 1990-1994 coincident with the Pinatubo eruption, and during the recent warming hiatus period. After each of these TER stalling periods, TER is found to increase faster than GPP, explaining a relative reduction of the net land sink. These results shed light on decadal variations of GPP and TER and suggest that they exhibit different responses to temperature anomalies over the last 35 years.
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Taking the metabolic pulse of the world's coral reefs.
Cyronak, Tyler; Andersson, Andreas J; Langdon, Chris; Albright, Rebecca; Bates, Nicholas R; Caldeira, Ken; Carlton, Renee; Corredor, Jorge E; Dunbar, Rob B; Enochs, Ian; Erez, Jonathan; Eyre, Bradley D; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Gledhill, Dwight; Kayanne, Hajime; Kline, David I; Koweek, David A; Lantz, Coulson; Lazar, Boaz; Manzello, Derek; McMahon, Ashly; Meléndez, Melissa; Page, Heather N; Santos, Isaac R; Schulz, Kai G; Shaw, Emily; Silverman, Jacob; Suzuki, Atsushi; Teneva, Lida; Watanabe, Atsushi; Yamamoto, Shoji
2018-01-01
Worldwide, coral reef ecosystems are experiencing increasing pressure from a variety of anthropogenic perturbations including ocean warming and acidification, increased sedimentation, eutrophication, and overfishing, which could shift reefs to a condition of net calcium carbonate (CaCO3) dissolution and erosion. Herein, we determine the net calcification potential and the relative balance of net organic carbon metabolism (net community production; NCP) and net inorganic carbon metabolism (net community calcification; NCC) within 23 coral reef locations across the globe. In light of these results, we consider the suitability of using these two metrics developed from total alkalinity (TA) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) measurements collected on different spatiotemporal scales to monitor coral reef biogeochemistry under anthropogenic change. All reefs in this study were net calcifying for the majority of observations as inferred from alkalinity depletion relative to offshore, although occasional observations of net dissolution occurred at most locations. However, reefs with lower net calcification potential (i.e., lower TA depletion) could shift towards net dissolution sooner than reefs with a higher potential. The percent influence of organic carbon fluxes on total changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) (i.e., NCP compared to the sum of NCP and NCC) ranged from 32% to 88% and reflected inherent biogeochemical differences between reefs. Reefs with the largest relative percentage of NCP experienced the largest variability in seawater pH for a given change in DIC, which is directly related to the reefs ability to elevate or suppress local pH relative to the open ocean. This work highlights the value of measuring coral reef carbonate chemistry when evaluating their susceptibility to ongoing global environmental change and offers a baseline from which to guide future conservation efforts aimed at preserving these valuable ecosystems.
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Taking the metabolic pulse of the world’s coral reefs
Andersson, Andreas J.; Langdon, Chris; Albright, Rebecca; Bates, Nicholas R.; Caldeira, Ken; Carlton, Renee; Corredor, Jorge E.; Dunbar, Rob B.; Enochs, Ian; Erez, Jonathan; Eyre, Bradley D.; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Gledhill, Dwight; Kayanne, Hajime; Kline, David I.; Koweek, David A.; Lantz, Coulson; Lazar, Boaz; Manzello, Derek; McMahon, Ashly; Meléndez, Melissa; Page, Heather N.; Santos, Isaac R.; Schulz, Kai G.; Shaw, Emily; Silverman, Jacob; Suzuki, Atsushi; Teneva, Lida; Watanabe, Atsushi; Yamamoto, Shoji
2018-01-01
Worldwide, coral reef ecosystems are experiencing increasing pressure from a variety of anthropogenic perturbations including ocean warming and acidification, increased sedimentation, eutrophication, and overfishing, which could shift reefs to a condition of net calcium carbonate (CaCO3) dissolution and erosion. Herein, we determine the net calcification potential and the relative balance of net organic carbon metabolism (net community production; NCP) and net inorganic carbon metabolism (net community calcification; NCC) within 23 coral reef locations across the globe. In light of these results, we consider the suitability of using these two metrics developed from total alkalinity (TA) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) measurements collected on different spatiotemporal scales to monitor coral reef biogeochemistry under anthropogenic change. All reefs in this study were net calcifying for the majority of observations as inferred from alkalinity depletion relative to offshore, although occasional observations of net dissolution occurred at most locations. However, reefs with lower net calcification potential (i.e., lower TA depletion) could shift towards net dissolution sooner than reefs with a higher potential. The percent influence of organic carbon fluxes on total changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) (i.e., NCP compared to the sum of NCP and NCC) ranged from 32% to 88% and reflected inherent biogeochemical differences between reefs. Reefs with the largest relative percentage of NCP experienced the largest variability in seawater pH for a given change in DIC, which is directly related to the reefs ability to elevate or suppress local pH relative to the open ocean. This work highlights the value of measuring coral reef carbonate chemistry when evaluating their susceptibility to ongoing global environmental change and offers a baseline from which to guide future conservation efforts aimed at preserving these valuable ecosystems. PMID:29315312
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A Global Modeling Study on Carbonaceous Aerosol Microphysical Characteristics and Radiative Effects
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bauer, S. E.; Menon, S.; Koch, D.; Bond, T. C.; Tsigaridis, K.
2010-01-01
Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, indirect and semi-direct aerosol effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and the way that mixed, aged aerosols interact with clouds and radiation. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the GISS climate model is used in this study to present a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative effects. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative flux change between 1750 and 2000 is -0.56 W/m2. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are quite sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative flux change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties at emission. Taking into account internally mixed black carbon particles let us simulate correct aerosol absorption. Absorption of black carbon aerosols is amplified by sulfate and nitrate coatings and, even more strongly, by organic coatings. Black carbon mitigation scenarios generally showed reduced radiative fluxeswhen sources with a large proportion of black carbon, such as diesel, are reduced; however reducing sources with a larger organic carbon component as well, such as bio-fuels, does not necessarily lead to a reduction in positive radiative flux.
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A global modeling study on carbonaceous aerosol microphysical characteristics and radiative effects
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bauer, S. E.; Menon, S.; Koch, D.; Bond, T. C.; Tsigaridis, K.
2010-08-01
Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, indirect and semi-direct aerosol effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and the way that mixed, aged aerosols interact with clouds and radiation. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the GISS climate model is used in this study to present a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative effects. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative flux change between 1750 and 2000 is -0.56 W/m2. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are quite sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative flux change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties at emission. Taking into account internally mixed black carbon particles let us simulate correct aerosol absorption. Absorption of black carbon aerosols is amplified by sulfate and nitrate coatings and, even more strongly, by organic coatings. Black carbon mitigation scenarios generally showed reduced radiative fluxeswhen sources with a large proportion of black carbon, such as diesel, are reduced; however reducing sources with a larger organic carbon component as well, such as bio-fuels, does not necessarily lead to a reduction in positive radiative flux.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abdullah, W. F.; Lombardozzi, D.; Levis, S.; Bonan, G. B.
2013-12-01
Warith Featherstone Abdullah, Danica Lombardozzi, Samuel Levis and Gordon Bonan Jackson State University Dept. of Physics, Atmospheric Sciences & Geosciences National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate & Global Dynamics Because the human population is expected to surpass 8 billion by the year 2050, food security is a pressing issue. In the face of elevated temperatures associated with climate change (CC), elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and elevated ozone (O3) concentrations, food productivity is uncertain. Plant stomata must be open to gain carbon which simultaneously causes water loss. Research suggests rising temperatures, elevated CO2 and elevated O3 in the future may impact plant stomata and change the rate plants lose water and take up carbon, affecting plant productivity and crop yields. Evapotranspiration (ET), latent heat fluxes, leaf carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) were analyzed in U.S Mid-west where crop density is greatest. Four simulations were run using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with an extended carbon-nitrogen model (CN). Analyses were based on June-July-August seasonal averages through 2080-2100 to compare the individual effects of CC, elevated CO2 and O3, and combined effects of all drivers. Results from model projections show increased ET with CC and all drivers combined, but only small changes from O3 or CO2 alone. Further results show that NPP was reduced with CC and O3 alone, but increased with CO2 alone and only slightly reduced with interacting components. The combined driver simulation, which most accurately represents future global change, suggests deteriorating water usage efficiency, thus potentially decreasing carbon uptake and crop production. However, further research is needed for verification. Midwest seasonal summation estimates for net primary productivity calculated by CLM4CN model. Climate change, CO2 and O3 levels are predicted using IPCC RCP8.5 scenarios.
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Regional-scale carbon and greenhouse gas dynamics of organic matter amendments on grassland soils
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mayer, A.; Silver, W. L.
2017-12-01
While progress is being made toward emissions reductions, achieving the international warming target of no more than 2 °C by 2100 will require active removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This research explores the potential for grassland ecosystems to sequester soil carbon (C) and mitigate climate change over time. We parameterized a site-level biogeochemical model (DayCent) to predict the effect of compost applications on grassland net primary productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil C storage and loss. We compare the results of the DayCent model from seven grassland regions across a broad climate gradient in CA. We also modeled the impact of climate change under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and reduced emissions scenario (RCP 4.5). Model results show that a single application of compost leads to a large net increase in soil C over several decades across all sites. Maximum soil C sequestration relative to control simulations occurred approximately 15 years after a ¼ inch compost was applied to the land, resulting in a maximum net C drawdown of approximately 6.6 Mg C/ha (Mendocino) by 2030 and a continued climate benefit from enhanced C storage through the end of the century. Compost application resulted in enhanced soil C in both climate scenarios, but the reduced emissions climate scenario resulted in greater net C storage than the high emissions scenario by 2100. This points to a virtuous cycle of simultaneous emissions reductions leading to enhanced climate change mitigation potential from land management strategies.
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Zhuang, Q.; Melillo, J.M.; Sarofim, M.C.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Felzer, B.S.; Sokolov, A.; Prinn, R.G.; Steudler, P.A.; Hu, S.
2006-01-01
Terrestrial ecosystems of the northern high latitudes (above 50??N) exchange large amounts of CO2 and CH4 with the atmosphere each year. Here we use a process-based model to estimate the budget of CO 2 and CH4 of the region for current climate conditions and for future scenarios by considering effects of permafrost dynamics, CO 2 fertilization of photosynthesis and fire. We find that currently the region is a net source of carbon to the atmosphere at 276 Tg C yr -1. We project that throughout the 21st century, the region will most likely continue as a net source of carbon and the source will increase by up to 473 Tg C yr-1 by the end of the century compared to the current emissions. However our coupled carbon and climate model simulations show that these emissions will exert relatively small radiative forcing on global climate system compared to large amounts of anthropogenic emissions. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jacobson, M. Z.
2001-12-01
Under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, no control of black carbon (BC) was considered. Here, it is found, through simulations in which seven new particles feedbacks to climate are identified, that any emission reduction of fossil-fuel (f.f.) particulate BC plus associated organic matter (OM) will slow global warming more than will any emission reduction of CO2 or CH4 for a definite time period. When all f.f. BC+OM and anthropogenic CO2 and CH4 emissions are eliminated together, that period is 20-90 years. It is also found that historical net global warming can be attributed roughly to greenhouse-gas plus f.f. BC+OM warming minus anthropogenic sulfate cooling. Eliminating all f.f. BC+OM could eliminate more than 40 percent of such net warming within three years if no other changes occurred. Reducing CO2 emissions by a third would have the same effect, but after 50-200 years. Finally, diesel cars warm climate more than do equivalent gasoline cars; thus, fuel- and carbon-tax laws that favor diesel promote global warming.
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The role of anthropogenic aerosol emission reduction in achieving the Paris Agreement's objective
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hienola, Anca; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; O'Donnell, Declan; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Korhonen, Hannele; Laaksonen, Ari
2017-04-01
The Paris agreement reached in December 2015 under the auspices of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims at holding the global temperature increase to well below 2◦C above preindustrial levels and "to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5◦C above preindustrial levels". Limiting warming to any level implies that the total amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) - the dominant driver of long-term temperatures - that can ever be emitted into the atmosphere is finite. Essentially, this means that global CO2 emissions need to become net zero. CO2 is not the only pollutant causing warming, although it is the most persistent. Short-lived, non-CO2 climate forcers also must also be considered. Whereas much effort has been put into defining a threshold for temperature increase and zero net carbon emissions, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the non-CO2 climate forcers, including not just the non-CO2 greenhouse gases (methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halocarbons etc.) but also the anthropogenic aerosols like black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulfate. This study investigates the possibility of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5◦C by the end of the century under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions simulated with the very simplistic MAGICC climate carbon cycle model as well as with ECHAM6.1-HAM2.2-SALSA + UVic ESCM. The simulations include two different CO2 scenarios- RCP3PD as control and a CO2 reduction leading to 1.5◦C (which translates into reaching the net zero CO2 emissions by mid 2040s followed by negative emissions by the end of the century); each CO2 scenario includes also two aerosol pollution control cases denoted with CLE (current legislation) and MFR (maximum feasible reduction). The main result of the above scenarios is that the stronger the anthropogenic aerosol emission reduction is, the more significant the temperature increase by 2100 relative to pre-industrial temperature will be, making the 1.5◦C temperature goal impossible to reach. Although the global reduction of anthropogenic aerosols can greatly enforce the global warming effect due to GHGs, all our simulations resulted in temperature increase bellow (but not well bellow) 2◦C above preindustrial levels - a slightly more realistic target compared to 1.5◦C. The results of this study are based on simulations of only two climate models. As such, we do not regard these results as indisputable, but we consider that aerosols and their effect on climate deserve more attention when discussing future aerosol emission.
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The Change of Climate and Terrestrial Carbon Cycle over Tibetan Plateau in CMIP5 Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, S.
2015-12-01
Six earth system models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated over Tibetan Plateau (TP) by comparing the modeled temperature (Tas), precipitation (Pr), net primary production (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) with the observed Tas, Pr, IGBP NPP and MPIM LAI in the historical, and then we analyzed the change of climate and carbon cycle and explored the relationship between the carbon cycle and main climatic drivers in the historical and representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) simulation over TP. While model results differ, their region spatial distributions from 1971 to 2000 agree reasonably with observed Tas, Pr and proxy LAI and NPP. The climatic variables, LAI and carbon flux vary between two simulations, the ration of NPP to gross primary production (GPP) does not change much in the historical and RCP4.5 scenarios. The linear trends of LAI and carbon flux show an obvious continuous increase from historical climatic period (1971-2000) to the first two climatic periods (2011-2040; 2041-2700) of RCP4.5, then the trends decrease in the third climatic period (2071-2100) of RCP4.5. The cumulative multi model ensemble (MME) net biome production (NBP) is 0.32 kgCm-2yr-1 during 1850 to 2005 and 1.43 kgCm-2yr-1 during 2006 to 2100, the Tibetan Plateau is a carbon sink during the historical scenario, and TP will uptake more carbon from atmosphere during 2006 to 2100 than 1850 to 2005 under RCP4.5 scenario. LAI, GPP, NPP, Ra and Rh appear more related to the Tas than Pr and Rsds, and the Tas is the primary climatic driver for the plant growth and carbon cycle. With the climate change in twenty-first century under RCP4.5 scenario, Tas still is the primary climate driver for the plant growth and carbon cycle, but the effect of temperature on plant growth and carbon cycle gets weaker.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ju, W.; Liu, Y.; Zhou, Y.; Zhu, G.
2011-12-01
Terrestrial carbon cycle is an important determinant of global climate change and affected by various factors, including climate, CO2 concentration, atmospheric nitrogen deposition and human activities. Extreme weather events can significantly regulate short-term even long-term carbon exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. During the period from the middle January to the middle February 2008, Southern China was seriously hit by abnormal low-temperature freezing, which caused serous damages to forests and crops. However, the reduction of net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems caused by this extremely abnormal weather event has not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model was employed to assess the reduction of NPP in Southern China caused by the abnormal low-temperature freezing. Prior to the regional simulation, the BEPS model was validated using measured NPP in different ecosystems, demonstrating the ability of this model to simulate NPP reliably in China. Then, it was forced using meteorological data interpolated from observations of weather stations and leaf area index inversed from MODIS reflectance data to simulate national wide NPP at a 500 m resolution for the period from 2003 to 2008. The departures of NPP in 2008 from the means during 2003-2007 were used as the indicator of NPP reduction caused by the low-temperature freezing. It was found out that NPP in 2008 decreased significantly in forests of Southern China, especially in Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan Provinces, in which the low-temperature freeing was more serious. The annul reduction of NPP was above 150 g C/m^2/yr in these areas. Key words: Net Primary Productivity, low-temperature freezing, BEPS model, MODIS Correspondence author: Weimin Ju Email:juweimin@nju.edu.cn
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Fatichi, Simone; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Paschalis, Athanasios; Langley, J Adam; Donnellan Barraclough, Alicia; Hovenden, Mark J
2016-10-24
Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide are expected to affect carbon assimilation and evapotranspiration (ET), ultimately driving changes in plant growth, hydrology, and the global carbon balance. Direct leaf biochemical effects have been widely investigated, whereas indirect effects, although documented, elude explicit quantification in experiments. Here, we used a mechanistic model to investigate the relative contributions of direct (through carbon assimilation) and indirect (via soil moisture savings due to stomatal closure, and changes in leaf area index) effects of elevated CO 2 across a variety of ecosystems. We specifically determined which ecosystems and climatic conditions maximize the indirect effects of elevated CO 2 The simulations suggest that the indirect effects of elevated CO 2 on net primary productivity are large and variable, ranging from less than 10% to more than 100% of the size of direct effects. For ET, indirect effects were, on average, 65% of the size of direct effects. Indirect effects tended to be considerably larger in water-limited ecosystems. As a consequence, the total CO 2 effect had a significant, inverse relationship with the wetness index and was directly related to vapor pressure deficit. These results have major implications for our understanding of the CO 2 response of ecosystems and for global projections of CO 2 fertilization, because, although direct effects are typically understood and easily reproducible in models, simulations of indirect effects are far more challenging and difficult to constrain. Our findings also provide an explanation for the discrepancies between experiments in the total CO 2 effect on net primary productivity.
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Measuring the effect of fuel treatments on forest carbon using landscape risk analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ager, A. A.; Finney, M. A.; McMahan, A.; Cathcart, J.
2010-12-01
Wildfire simulation modelling was used to examine whether fuel reduction treatments can potentially reduce future wildfire emissions and provide carbon benefits. In contrast to previous reports, the current study modelled landscape scale effects of fuel treatments on fire spread and intensity, and used a probabilistic framework to quantify wildfire effects on carbon pools to account for stochastic wildfire occurrence. The study area was a 68 474 ha watershed located on the Fremont-Winema National Forest in southeastern Oregon, USA. Fuel reduction treatments were simulated on 10% of the watershed (19% of federal forestland). We simulated 30 000 wildfires with random ignition locations under both treated and untreated landscapes to estimate the change in burn probability by flame length class resulting from the treatments. Carbon loss functions were then calculated with the Forest Vegetation Simulator for each stand in the study area to quantify change in carbon as a function of flame length. We then calculated the expected change in carbon from a random ignition and wildfire as the sum of the product of the carbon loss and the burn probabilities by flame length class. The expected carbon difference between the non-treatment and treatment scenarios was then calculated to quantify the effect of fuel treatments. Overall, the results show that the carbon loss from implementing fuel reduction treatments exceeded the expected carbon benefit associated with lowered burn probabilities and reduced fire severity on the treated landscape. Thus, fuel management activities resulted in an expected net loss of carbon immediately after treatment. However, the findings represent a point in time estimate (wildfire immediately after treatments), and a temporal analysis with a probabilistic framework used here is needed to model carbon dynamics over the life cycle of the fuel treatments. Of particular importance is the long-term balance between emissions from the decay of dead trees killed by fire and carbon sequestration by forest regeneration following wildfire.
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Net ecosystem production: A comprehensive measure of net carbon accumulation by ecosystems
Randerson, J.T.; Chapin, F. S.; Harden, J.W.; Neff, J.C.; Harmon, M.E.
2002-01-01
The conceptual framework used by ecologists and biogeochemists must allow for accurate and clearly defined comparisons of carbon fluxes made with disparate techniques across a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales. Consistent with usage over the past four decades, we define "net ecosystem production" (NEP) as the net carbon accumulation by ecosystems. Past use of this term has been ambiguous, because it has been used conceptually as a measure of carbon accumulation by ecosystems, but it has often been calculated considering only the balance between gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration. This calculation ignores other carbon fluxes from ecosystems (e.g., leaching of dissolved carbon and losses associated with disturbance). To avoid conceptual ambiguities, we argue that NEP be defined, as in the past, as the net carbon accumulation by ecosystems and that it explicitly incorporate all the carbon fluxes from an ecosystem, including autotrophic respiration, heterotrophic respiration, losses associated with disturbance, dissolved and particulate carbon losses, volatile organic compound emissions, and lateral transfers among ecosystems. Net biome productivity (NBP), which has been proposed to account for carbon loss during episodic disturbance, is equivalent to NEP at regional or global scales. The multi-scale conceptual framework we describe provides continuity between flux measurements made at the scale of soil profiles and chambers, forest inventories, eddy covariance towers, aircraft, and inversions of remote atmospheric flask samples, allowing a direct comparison of NEP estimates made at all temporal and spatial scales.
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Partitioning of net carbon dioxide flux measured by automatic transparent chamber
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dyukarev, EA
2018-03-01
Mathematical model was developed for describing carbon dioxide fluxes at open sedge-sphagnum fen during growing season. The model was calibrated using the results of observations from automatic transparent chamber and it allows us to estimate autotrophic, heterotrophic and ecosystem respiration fluxes, gross and net primary vegetation production, and the net carbon balance.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, Xibao; Yang, Guishan; Tan, Yan; Tang, Xuguang; Jiang, Hong; Sun, Xiaoxiang; Zhuang, Qianlai; Li, Hengpeng
2017-03-01
Land use changes play a major role in determining sources and sinks of carbon at regional and global scales. This study employs a modified Global biome model-biogeochemical cycle model to examine the changes in the spatiotemporal pattern of net ecosystem production (NEP) in the Taihu Lake Basin of China during 1985-2010 and the extent to which land use change impacted NEP. The model is calibrated with observed NEP at three flux sites for three dominant land use types in the basin including cropland, evergreen needleleaf forest, and mixed forest. Two simulations are conducted to distinguish the net effects of land use change and increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and nitrogen deposition on NEP. The study estimates that NEP in the basin decreased by 9.8% (1.57 Tg C) from 1985 to 2010, showing an overall downward trend. The NEP distribution exhibits an apparent spatial heterogeneity at the municipal level. Land use changes during 1985-2010 reduced the regional NEP (3.21 Tg C in year 2010) by 19.9% compared to its 1985 level, while the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and nitrogen deposition compensated for a half of the total carbon loss. Critical measures for regulating rapid urban expansion and population growth and reinforcing environment protection programs are recommended to increase the regional carbon sink.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Raj, Rahul; van der Tol, Christiaan; Hamm, Nicholas Alexander Samuel; Stein, Alfred
2018-01-01
Parameters of a process-based forest growth simulator are difficult or impossible to obtain from field observations. Reliable estimates can be obtained using calibration against observations of output and state variables. In this study, we present a Bayesian framework to calibrate the widely used process-based simulator Biome-BGC against estimates of gross primary production (GPP) data. We used GPP partitioned from flux tower measurements of a net ecosystem exchange over a 55-year-old Douglas fir stand as an example. The uncertainties of both the Biome-BGC parameters and the simulated GPP values were estimated. The calibrated parameters leaf and fine root turnover (LFRT), ratio of fine root carbon to leaf carbon (FRC : LC), ratio of carbon to nitrogen in leaf (C : Nleaf), canopy water interception coefficient (Wint), fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (FLNR), and effective soil rooting depth (SD) characterize the photosynthesis and carbon and nitrogen allocation in the forest. The calibration improved the root mean square error and enhanced Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between simulated and flux tower daily GPP compared to the uncalibrated Biome-BGC. Nevertheless, the seasonal cycle for flux tower GPP was not reproduced exactly and some overestimation in spring and underestimation in summer remained after calibration. We hypothesized that the phenology exhibited a seasonal cycle that was not accurately reproduced by the simulator. We investigated this by calibrating the Biome-BGC to each month's flux tower GPP separately. As expected, the simulated GPP improved, but the calibrated parameter values suggested that the seasonal cycle of state variables in the simulator could be improved. It was concluded that the Bayesian framework for calibration can reveal features of the modelled physical processes and identify aspects of the process simulator that are too rigid.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Xiao, Jingfeng; Zhuang, Qianlai; Baldocchi, Dennis D.
Eddy covariance flux towers provide continuous measurements of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) for a wide range of climate and biome types. However, these measurements only represent the carbon fluxes at the scale of the tower footprint. To quantify the net exchange of carbon dioxide between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere for regions or continents, flux tower measurements need to be extrapolated to these large areas. Here we used remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument on board the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Terra satellite to scale up AmeriFlux NEE measurements to themore » continental scale. We first combined MODIS and AmeriFlux data for representative U.S. ecosystems to develop a predictive NEE model using a modified regression tree approach. The predictive model was trained and validated using eddy flux NEE data over the periods 2000-2004 and 2005-2006, respectively. We found that the model predicted NEE well (r = 0.73, p < 0.001). We then applied the model to the continental scale and estimated NEE for each 1 km x 1 km cell across the conterminous U.S. for each 8-day interval in 2005 using spatially explicit MODIS data. The model generally captured the expected spatial and seasonal patterns of NEE as determined from measurements and the literature. Our study demonstrated that our empirical approach is effective for scaling up eddy flux NEE measurements to the continental scale and producing wall-to-wall NEE estimates across multiple biomes. Our estimates may provide an independent dataset from simulations with biogeochemical models and inverse modeling approaches for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of NEE and constraining terrestrial carbon budgets over large areas.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Xiao, Jingfeng; Zhuang, Qianlai; Baldocchi, Dennis D.
Eddy covariance flux towers provide continuous measurements of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) for a wide range of climate and biome types. However, these measurements only represent the carbon fluxes at the scale of the tower footprint. To quantify the net exchange of carbon dioxide between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere for regions or continents, flux tower measurements need to be extrapolated to these large areas. Here we used remotely-sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument on board NASA's Terra satellite to scale up AmeriFlux NEE measurements to the continental scale. We first combined MODIS andmore » AmeriFlux data for representative U.S. ecosystems to develop a predictive NEE model using a regression tree approach. The predictive model was trained and validated using NEE data over the periods 2000-2004 and 2005-2006, respectively. We found that the model predicted NEE reasonably well at the site level. We then applied the model to the continental scale and estimated NEE for each 1 km x 1 km cell across the conterminous U.S. for each 8-day period in 2005 using spatially-explicit MODIS data. The model generally captured the expected spatial and seasonal patterns of NEE. Our study demonstrated that our empirical approach is effective for scaling up eddy flux NEE measurements to the continental scale and producing wall-to-wall NEE estimates across multiple biomes. Our estimates may provide an independent dataset from simulations with biogeochemical models and inverse modeling approaches for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of NEE and constraining terrestrial carbon budgets for large areas.« less
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Assessing Land Management Change Effects on Forest Carbon and Emissions Under Changing Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Law, B. E.
2014-12-01
There has been limited focus on fine-scale land management change effects on forest carbon under future environmental conditions (climate, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric CO2). Forest management decisions are often made at the landscape to regional levels before analyses have been conducted to determine the potential outcomes and effectiveness of such actions. Scientists need to evaluate plausible land management actions in a timely manner to help shape policy and strategic land management. Issues of interest include species-level adaptation to climate, resilience and vulnerability to mortality within forested landscapes and regions. Efforts are underway to improve land system model simulation of future mortality related to climate, and to develop and evaluate plausible land management options that could help mitigate or avoid future die-offs. Vulnerability to drought-related mortality varies among species and with tree size or age. Predictors of species ability to survive in specific environments are still not resolved. A challenge is limited observations for fine-scale (e.g. 4 km2) modeling, particularly physiological parameters. Uncertainties are primarily associated with future land management and policy decisions. They include the interface with economic factors and with other ecosystem services (biodiversity, water availability, wildlife habitat). The outcomes of future management scenarios should be compared with business-as-usual management under the same environmental conditions to determine the effects of management changes on forest carbon and net emissions to the atmosphere. For example, in the western U.S., land system modeling and life cycle assessment of several management options to reduce impacts of fire reduced long-term forest carbon gain and increased carbon emissions compared with business-as-usual management under future environmental conditions. The enhanced net carbon uptake with climate and reduced fire emissions after thinning did not compensate for the increased wood removals over 90 years, leading to reduced net biome production. Analysis of land management change scenarios at fine scales is needed, and should consider other ecological values in addition to carbon.
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Tropical forests are a net carbon source based on aboveground measurements of gain and loss.
Baccini, A; Walker, W; Carvalho, L; Farina, M; Sulla-Menashe, D; Houghton, R A
2017-10-13
The carbon balance of tropical ecosystems remains uncertain, with top-down atmospheric studies suggesting an overall sink and bottom-up ecological approaches indicating a modest net source. Here we use 12 years (2003 to 2014) of MODIS pantropical satellite data to quantify net annual changes in the aboveground carbon density of tropical woody live vegetation, providing direct, measurement-based evidence that the world's tropical forests are a net carbon source of 425.2 ± 92.0 teragrams of carbon per year (Tg C year -1 ). This net release of carbon consists of losses of 861.7 ± 80.2 Tg C year -1 and gains of 436.5 ± 31.0 Tg C year -1 Gains result from forest growth; losses result from deforestation and from reductions in carbon density within standing forests (degradation or disturbance), with the latter accounting for 68.9% of overall losses. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pongratz, Julia; Wilkenskjeld, Stiig; Kloster, Silvia; Reick, Christian
2014-05-01
Recent studies indicate that changes in surface climate and carbon fluxes caused by land management (i.e., modifications of vegetation structure without changing the type of land cover) can be as large as those caused by land cover change. Further, such effects may occur on substantial areas: while about one quarter of the land surface has undergone land cover change, another fifty percent are managed. This calls for integration of management processes in Earth system models (ESMs). This integration increases the importance of awareness and agreement on how to diagnose effects of land use in ESMs to avoid additional model spread and thus unnecessary uncertainties in carbon budget estimates. Process understanding of management effects, their model implementation, as well as data availability on management type and extent pose challenges. In this respect, a significant step forward has been done in the framework of the current IPCC's CMIP5 simulations (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5): The climate simulations were driven with the same harmonized land use dataset that, different from most datasets commonly used before, included information on two important types of management: wood harvest and shifting cultivation. However, these new aspects were employed by only part of the CMIP5 models, while most models continued to use the associated land cover maps. Here, we explore the consequences for the carbon cycle of including subgrid-scale land transformations ("gross transitions"), such as shifting cultivation, as example of the current state of implementation of land management in ESMs. Accounting for gross transitions is expected to increase land use emissions because it represents simultaneous clearing and regrowth of natural vegetation in different parts of the grid cell, reducing standing carbon stocks. This process cannot be captured by prescribing land cover maps ("net transitions"). Using the MPI-ESM we find that ignoring gross transitions underestimates emissions substantially, for historical times by about 40%. Implementation of land management such as gross transitions is a step forward in terms of comprehensiveness of simulated processes. However, it has increased model spread in carbon fluxes, because land management processes have been considered by only a subset of recent ESMs contributing to major projects such as IPCC or the Global Carbon Project. This model spread still causes the net land use flux to be the most uncertain component in the global carbon budget. Other causes have previously been identified as differences in land use datasets, differing types of vegetation model, accounting of nutrient limitation, the inclusion of land use feedbacks (increase in atmospheric CO2 due to land use emissions causing terrestrial carbon uptake), and a confusion of whether the net land use flux in ESMs should be reported as instantaneous emissions, or also account for delayed carbon responses and regrowth. These differences explain a factor 2-6 difference between model estimates and are expected to be further affected by interactions with land management. This highlights the importance of an accurate protocol for future model intercomparisons of carbon fluxes from land cover change and land management to ensure comparison of the same processes and fluxes.
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Hydrologic support of carbon dioxide flux revealed by whole-lake carbon budgets
Stets, E.G.; Striegl, Robert G.; Aiken, G.R.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Winter, T.C.
2009-01-01
Freshwater lakes are an important component of the global carbon cycle through both organic carbon (OC) sequestration and carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission. Most lakes have a net annual loss of CO2 to the atmosphere and substantial current evidence suggests that biologic mineralization of allochthonous OC maintains this flux. Because net CO 2 flux to the atmosphere implies net mineralization of OC within the lake ecosystem, it is also commonly assumed that net annual CO2 emission indicates negative net ecosystem production (NEP). We explored the relationship between atmospheric CO2 emission and NEP in two lakes known to have contrasting hydrologie characteristics and net CO2 emission. We calculated NEP for calendar year 2004 using whole-lake OC and inorganic carbon (IC) budgets, NEPoc and NEPIC, respectively, and compared the resulting values to measured annual CO 2 flux from the lakes. In both lakes, NEPIc and NEP Ic were positive, indicating net autotrophy. Therefore CO2 emission from these lakes was apparently not supported by mineralization of allochthonous organic material. In both lakes, hydrologie CO2 inputs, as well as CO2 evolved from netcalcite precipitation, could account for the net CO2 emission. NEP calculated from diel CO2 measurements was also affected by hydrologie inputs of CO2. These results indicate that CO2 emission and positive NEP may coincide in lakes, especially in carbonate terrain, and that all potential geologic, biogeochemical, and hydrologie sources of CO2 need to be accounted for when using CO2 concentrations to infer lake NEP. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
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Contribution of increasing CO2 and climate to carbon storage by ecosystems in the United States.
Schimel, D; Melillo, J; Tian, H; McGuire, A D; Kicklighter, D; Kittel, T; Rosenbloom, N; Running, S; Thornton, P; Ojima, D; Parton, W; Kelly, R; Sykes, M; Neilson, R; Rizzo, B
2000-03-17
The effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate on net carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of the conterminous United States for the period 1895-1993 were modeled with new, detailed historical climate information. For the period 1980-1993, results from an ensemble of three models agree within 25%, simulating a land carbon sink from CO2 and climate effects of 0.08 gigaton of carbon per year. The best estimates of the total sink from inventory data are about three times larger, suggesting that processes such as regrowth on abandoned agricultural land or in forests harvested before 1980 have effects as large as or larger than the direct effects of CO2 and climate. The modeled sink varies by about 100% from year to year as a result of climate variability.
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Contribution of increasing CO2 and climate to carbon storage by ecosystems in the United States
Schimel, D.; Melillo, J.; Tian, H.; McGuire, A.D.; Kicklighter, D.; Kittel, T.; Rosenbloom, N.; Running, S.; Thornton, P.; Ojima, D.; Parton, W.; Kelly, R.; Sykes, M.; Neilson, R.; Rizzo, B.
2000-01-01
The effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate on net carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of the conterminous United States for the period 1895-1993 were modeled with new, detailed historical climate information. For the period 1980-1993, results from an ensemble of three models agree within 25%, simulating a land carbon sink from CO2 and climate effects of 0.08 gigaton of carbon per year. The best estimates of the total sink from inventory data are about three times larger, suggesting that processes such as regrowth on abandoned agricultural land or in forests harvested before 1980 have effects as large as or larger than the direct effects of CO2 and climate. The modeled sink varies by about 100% from year to year as a result of climate variability.
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The impacts of tropical cyclones on the net carbon balance of eastern US forests (1851-2000)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K. A.; Negrón-Juárez, R. I.
2013-12-01
In temperate forests of the eastern US, tropical cyclones are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial progress has been made to quantify forest damage and resulting gross carbon emissions from tropical cyclones. However, the net effect of storms on the carbon balance of forests depends not only on the biomass lost in single events, but also on the uptake during recovery from a mosaic of past events. This study estimates the net impacts of tropical cyclones on the carbon balance of US forests over the period 1851-2000. To track both disturbance and recovery and to isolate the effects of storms, a modeling framework is used combining gridded historical estimates of mortality and damage with a mechanistic model using an ensemble approach. The net effect of tropical cyclones on the carbon balance is shown to depend strongly on the spatial and temporal scales of analysis. On average, tropical cyclones contribute a net carbon source over latter half of the 19th century. However, throughout much of the 20th century a regional carbon sink is estimated resulting from periods of forest recovery exceeding damage. The large-scale net annual flux resulting from tropical cyclones varies by up to 50 Tg C yr-1, an amount equivalent to 17%-36% of the US forest carbon sink.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Harding, K. J.; Twine, T. E.; VanLoocke, A.; Bagley, J. E.; Hill, J.
2016-10-01
Biofuel feedstocks provide a renewable energy source that can reduce fossil fuel emissions; however, if produced on a large scale they can also impact local to regional water and carbon budgets. Simulation results for 2005-2014 from a regional weather model adapted to simulate the growth of two perennial grass biofuel feedstocks suggest that replacing at least half the current annual cropland with these grasses would increase water use efficiency and drive greater rainfall downwind of perturbed grid cells, but increased evapotranspiration (ET) might switch the Mississippi River basin from having a net warm-season surplus of water (precipitation minus ET) to a net deficit. While this scenario reduces land required for biofuel feedstock production relative to current use for maize grain ethanol production, it only offsets approximately one decade of projected anthropogenic warming and increased water vapor results in greater atmospheric heat content.
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Electricity resonance-induced fast transport of water through nanochannels.
Kou, Jianlong; Lu, Hangjun; Wu, Fengmin; Fan, Jintu; Yao, Jun
2014-09-10
We performed molecular dynamics simulations to study water permeation through a single-walled carbon nanotube with electrical interference. It was found that the water net flux across the nanochannel is greatly affected by the external electrical interference, with the maximal net flux occurred at an electrical interference frequency of 16670 GHz being about nine times as high as the net flux at the low or high frequency range of (<1000 GHz or >80,000 GHz). The above phenomena can be attributed to the breakage of hydrogen bonds as the electrical interference frequency approaches to the inherent resonant frequency of hydrogen bonds. The new mechanism of regulating water flux across nanochannels revealed in this study provides an insight into the water transportation through biological water channels and has tremendous potential in the design of high-flux nanofluidic systems.
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A global carbon assimilation system based on a dual optimization method
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zheng, H.; Li, Y.; Chen, J. M.; Wang, T.; Huang, Q.; Huang, W. X.; Wang, L. H.; Li, S. M.; Yuan, W. P.; Zheng, X.; Zhang, S. P.; Chen, Z. Q.; Jiang, F.
2015-02-01
Ecological models are effective tools for simulating the distribution of global carbon sources and sinks. However, these models often suffer from substantial biases due to inaccurate simulations of complex ecological processes. We introduce a set of scaling factors (parameters) to an ecological model on the basis of plant functional type (PFT) and latitudes. A global carbon assimilation system (GCAS-DOM) is developed by employing a dual optimization method (DOM) to invert the time-dependent ecological model parameter state and the net carbon flux state simultaneously. We use GCAS-DOM to estimate the global distribution of the CO2 flux on 1° × 1° grid cells for the period from 2001 to 2007. Results show that land and ocean absorb -3.63 ± 0.50 and -1.82 ± 0.16 Pg C yr-1, respectively. North America, Europe and China contribute -0.98 ± 0.15, -0.42 ± 0.08 and -0.20 ± 0.29 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The uncertainties in the flux after optimization by GCAS-DOM have been remarkably reduced by more than 60%. Through parameter optimization, GCAS-DOM can provide improved estimates of the carbon flux for each PFT. Coniferous forest (-0.97 ± 0.27 Pg C yr-1) is the largest contributor to the global carbon sink. Fluxes of once-dominant deciduous forest generated by the Boreal Ecosystems Productivity Simulator (BEPS) are reduced to -0.78 ± 0.23 Pg C yr-1, the third largest carbon sink.
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Importance of vegetation distribution for future carbon balance
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ahlström, A.; Xia, J.; Arneth, A.; Luo, Y.; Smith, B.
2015-12-01
Projections of future terrestrial carbon uptake vary greatly between simulations. Net primary production (NPP), wild fires, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts) and soil decomposition constitute the main processes governing the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle in a changing climate. While primary production and soil respiration are relatively well studied and implemented in all global ecosystem models used to project the future land sink of CO2, vegetation dynamics are less studied and not always represented in global models. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality and the associated turnover and proven skill in predicting vegetation distribution and succession. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing at year 2085. We exchanged carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations and investigate the changes predicted by the emulator. This method allowed us to partition the entire ensemble carbon uptake uncertainty into individual processes. We found that NPP, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33% respectively of uncertainties in modeled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation dynamics was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand dynamics (7%), reproduction (10%) and biome shifts (67%) globally. We conclude that while NPP and soil decomposition rates jointly account for 83% of future climate induced C-uptake uncertainties, vegetation turnover and structure, dominated by shifts in vegetation distribution, represent a significant fraction globally and regionally (tropical forests: 40%), strongly motivating their representation and analysis in future C-cycle studies.
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Evaluation of the DayCent model to predict carbon fluxes in French crop sites
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fujisaki, Kenji; Martin, Manuel P.; Zhang, Yao; Bernoux, Martial; Chapuis-Lardy, Lydie
2017-04-01
Croplands in temperate regions are an important component of the carbon balance and can act as a sink or a source of carbon, depending on pedoclimatic conditions and management practices. Therefore the evaluation of carbon fluxes in croplands by modelling approach is relevant in the context of global change. This study was part of the Comete-Global project funded by the multi-Partner call FACCE JPI. Carbon fluxes, net ecosystem exchange (NEE), leaf area index (LAI), biomass, and grain production were simulated at the site level in three French crop experiments from the CarboEurope project. Several crops were studied, like winter wheat, rapeseed, barley, maize, and sunflower. Daily NEE was measured with eddy covariance and could be partitioned between gross primary production (GPP) and total ecosystem respiration (TER). Measurements were compared to DayCent simulations, a process-based model predicting plant production and soil organic matter turnover at daily time step. We compared two versions of the model: the original one with a simplified plant module and a newer version that simulates LAI. Input data for modelling were soil properties, climate, and management practices. Simulations of grain yields and biomass production were acceptable when using optimized crop parameters. Simulation of NEE was also acceptable. GPP predictions were improved with the newer version of the model, eliminating temporal shifts that could be observed with the original model. TER was underestimated by the model. Predicted NEE was more sensitive to soil tillage and nitrogen applications than measured NEE. DayCent was therefore a relevant tool to predict carbon fluxes in French crops at the site level. The introduction of LAI in the model improved its performance.
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Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, P.; Harden, J.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.
2013-01-01
Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and current regional forest carbon balance. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the CO2 emissions from boreal forest fire and the subsequent recovery after a stand-replacing fire; the model represents postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against observations of three clusters of postfire forest chronosequences in Canada and Alaska. The variables evaluated include: fire carbon emissions, CO2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index, and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). When forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO2 history at each chronosequence site, the model simulations generally match the observed CO2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with the measurement accuracy (for CO2 flux ~100 g C m−2 yr−1, for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m−2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m−2). We find that the current postfire forest carbon sink at the evaluation sites, as observed by chronosequence methods, is mainly due to a combination of historical CO2 increase and forest succession. Climate change and variability during this period offsets some of these expected carbon gains. The negative impacts of climate were a likely consequence of increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increases that were not matched by concurrent increases in precipitation. Our simulation results demonstrate that a global vegetation model such as ORCHIDEE is able to capture the essential ecosystem processes in fire-disturbed boreal forests and produces satisfactory results in terms of both carbon fluxes and carbon-stock evolution after fire. This makes the model suitable for regional simulations in boreal regions where fire regimes play a key role in the ecosystem carbon balance.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, P.; Harden, J.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S. L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.
2013-12-01
Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and current regional forest carbon balance. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the CO2 emissions from boreal forest fire and the subsequent recovery after a stand-replacing fire; the model represents postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against observations of three clusters of postfire forest chronosequences in Canada and Alaska. The variables evaluated include: fire carbon emissions, CO2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index, and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). When forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO2 history at each chronosequence site, the model simulations generally match the observed CO2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with the measurement accuracy (for CO2 flux ~100 g C m-2 yr-1, for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m-2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m-2). We find that the current postfire forest carbon sink at the evaluation sites, as observed by chronosequence methods, is mainly due to a combination of historical CO2 increase and forest succession. Climate change and variability during this period offsets some of these expected carbon gains. The negative impacts of climate were a likely consequence of increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increases that were not matched by concurrent increases in precipitation. Our simulation results demonstrate that a global vegetation model such as ORCHIDEE is able to capture the essential ecosystem processes in fire-disturbed boreal forests and produces satisfactory results in terms of both carbon fluxes and carbon-stock evolution after fire. This makes the model suitable for regional simulations in boreal regions where fire regimes play a key role in the ecosystem carbon balance.
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A contemporary carbon balance for the Northeast region of the United States.
Lu, Xiaoliang; Kicklighter, David W; Melillo, Jerry M; Yang, Ping; Rosenzweig, Bernice; Vörösmarty, Charles J; Gross, Barry; Stewart, Robert J
2013-01-01
Development of regional policies to reduce net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would benefit from the quantification of the major components of the region's carbon balance--fossil fuel CO2 emissions and net fluxes between land ecosystems and the atmosphere. Through spatially detailed inventories of fossil fuel CO2 emissions and a terrestrial biogeochemistry model, we produce the first estimate of regional carbon balance for the Northeast United States between 2001 and 2005. Our analysis reveals that the region was a net carbon source of 259 Tg C/yr over this period. Carbon sequestration by land ecosystems across the region, mainly forests, compensated for about 6% of the region's fossil fuel emissions. Actions that reduce fossil fuel CO2 emissions are key to improving the region's carbon balance. Careful management of forested lands will be required to protect their role as a net carbon sink and a provider of important ecosystem services such as water purification, erosion control, wildlife habitat and diversity, and scenic landscapes.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Raczka, Brett; Duarte, Henrique F.; Koven, Charles D.
Land surface models are useful tools to quantify contemporary and future climate impact on terrestrial carbon cycle processes, provided they can be appropriately constrained and tested with observations. Stable carbon isotopes of CO 2 offer the potential to improve model representation of the coupled carbon and water cycles because they are strongly influenced by stomatal function. Recently, a representation of stable carbon isotope discrimination was incorporated into the Community Land Model component of the Community Earth System Model. Here, we tested the model's capability to simulate whole-forest isotope discrimination in a subalpine conifer forest at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. Wemore » distinguished between isotopic behavior in response to a decrease of δ 13C within atmospheric CO 2 (Suess effect) vs. photosynthetic discrimination (Δ canopy), by creating a site-customized atmospheric CO 2 and δ 13C of CO 2 time series. We implemented a seasonally varying V cmax model calibration that best matched site observations of net CO 2 carbon exchange, latent heat exchange, and biomass. The model accurately simulated observed δ 13C of needle and stem tissue, but underestimated the δ 13C of bulk soil carbon by 1–2 ‰. The model overestimated the multiyear (2006–2012) average Δ canopy relative to prior data-based estimates by 2–4 ‰. The amplitude of the average seasonal cycle of Δ canopy (i.e., higher in spring/fall as compared to summer) was correctly modeled but only when using a revised, fully coupled A n- g s (net assimilation rate, stomatal conductance) version of the model in contrast to the partially coupled A n- g s version used in the default model. The model attributed most of the seasonal variation in discrimination to A n, whereas interannual variation in simulated Δ canopy during the summer months was driven by stomatal response to vapor pressure deficit (VPD). The model simulated a 10 % increase in both photosynthetic discrimination and water-use efficiency (WUE) since 1850 which is counter to established relationships between discrimination and WUE. The isotope observations used here to constrain CLM suggest (1) the model overestimated stomatal conductance and (2) the default CLM approach to representing nitrogen limitation (partially coupled model) was not capable of reproducing observed trends in discrimination. These findings demonstrate that isotope observations can provide important information related to stomatal function driven by environmental stress from VPD and nitrogen limitation. Future versions of CLM that incorporate carbon isotope discrimination are likely to benefit from explicit inclusion of mesophyll conductance.« less
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Raczka, Brett; Duarte, Henrique F.; Koven, Charles D.; ...
2016-09-19
Land surface models are useful tools to quantify contemporary and future climate impact on terrestrial carbon cycle processes, provided they can be appropriately constrained and tested with observations. Stable carbon isotopes of CO 2 offer the potential to improve model representation of the coupled carbon and water cycles because they are strongly influenced by stomatal function. Recently, a representation of stable carbon isotope discrimination was incorporated into the Community Land Model component of the Community Earth System Model. Here, we tested the model's capability to simulate whole-forest isotope discrimination in a subalpine conifer forest at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. Wemore » distinguished between isotopic behavior in response to a decrease of δ 13C within atmospheric CO 2 (Suess effect) vs. photosynthetic discrimination (Δ canopy), by creating a site-customized atmospheric CO 2 and δ 13C of CO 2 time series. We implemented a seasonally varying V cmax model calibration that best matched site observations of net CO 2 carbon exchange, latent heat exchange, and biomass. The model accurately simulated observed δ 13C of needle and stem tissue, but underestimated the δ 13C of bulk soil carbon by 1–2 ‰. The model overestimated the multiyear (2006–2012) average Δ canopy relative to prior data-based estimates by 2–4 ‰. The amplitude of the average seasonal cycle of Δ canopy (i.e., higher in spring/fall as compared to summer) was correctly modeled but only when using a revised, fully coupled A n- g s (net assimilation rate, stomatal conductance) version of the model in contrast to the partially coupled A n- g s version used in the default model. The model attributed most of the seasonal variation in discrimination to A n, whereas interannual variation in simulated Δ canopy during the summer months was driven by stomatal response to vapor pressure deficit (VPD). The model simulated a 10 % increase in both photosynthetic discrimination and water-use efficiency (WUE) since 1850 which is counter to established relationships between discrimination and WUE. The isotope observations used here to constrain CLM suggest (1) the model overestimated stomatal conductance and (2) the default CLM approach to representing nitrogen limitation (partially coupled model) was not capable of reproducing observed trends in discrimination. These findings demonstrate that isotope observations can provide important information related to stomatal function driven by environmental stress from VPD and nitrogen limitation. Future versions of CLM that incorporate carbon isotope discrimination are likely to benefit from explicit inclusion of mesophyll conductance.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Yuanqiao; Verseghy, Diana L.; Melton, Joe R.
2016-08-01
Peatlands, which contain large carbon stocks that must be accounted for in the global carbon budget, are poorly represented in many earth system models. We integrated peatlands into the coupled Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM), which together simulate the fluxes of water, energy, and CO2 at the land surface-atmosphere boundary in the family of Canadian Earth system models (CanESMs). New components and algorithms were added to represent the unique features of peatlands, such as their characteristic ground floor vegetation (mosses), the slow decomposition of carbon in the water-logged soils and the interaction between the water, energy, and carbon cycles. This paper presents the modifications introduced into the CLASS-CTEM modelling framework together with site-level evaluations of the model performance for simulated water, energy and carbon fluxes at eight different peatland sites. The simulated daily gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration are well correlated with observations, with values of the Pearson correlation coefficient higher than 0.8 and 0.75 respectively. The simulated mean annual net ecosystem production at the eight test sites is 87 g C m-2 yr-1, which is 22 g C m-2 yr-1 higher than the observed annual mean. The general peatland model compares well with other site-level and regional-level models for peatlands, and is able to represent bogs and fens under a range of climatic and geographical conditions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Y.; Verseghy, D. L.; Melton, J. R.
2015-11-01
Peatlands, which contain large carbon stocks that must be accounted for in the global carbon budget, are poorly represented in many earth system models. We integrated peatlands into the coupled Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM), which together simulate the fluxes of water, energy and CO2 at the land surface-atmosphere boundary in the family of Canadian Earth System Models (CanESMs). New components and algorithms were added to represent the unique features of peatlands, such as their characteristic ground floor vegetation (mosses), the slow decomposition of carbon in the water-logged soils and the interaction between the water, energy and carbon cycles. This paper presents the modifications introduced into the CLASS-CTEM modelling framework together with site-level evaluations of the model performance for simulated water, energy and carbon fluxes at eight different peatland sites. The simulated daily gross primary production and ecosystem respiration are well correlated with observations, with values of the Pearson correlation coefficient higher than 0.8 and 0.75 respectively. The simulated mean annual net ecosystem production at the eight test sites is 87 g C m-2 yr-1, which is 22 g C m-2 yr-1 higher than the observed annual mean. The general peatland model compares well with other site-level and regional-level models for peatlands, and is able to represent bogs and fens under a range of climatic and geographical conditions.
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David P. Turner; William D. Ritts; Zhiqiang Yang; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Maureen V. Duane; Peter E. Thornton; Beverly E. Law
2011-01-01
Carbon sequestration is increasingly recognized as an ecosystem service, and forest management has a large potential to alter regional carbon fluxes, notably by way of harvest removals and related impacts on net ecosystem production (NEP). In the Pacific Northwest region of the US, the implementation of the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) in 1993 established a regional...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rajan, N.; Sharma, S.; Casey, K.; Maas, S. J.
2015-12-01
We are facing an unprecedented challenge in securing America's energy future. To address this challenge, increased biofuel crop production is needed. Second-generation biofuels are made from the by-products of intensive agriculture or from less-intensive agriculture on more marginal lands. The Southwestern U.S. Cotton Belt can play a significant role in this effort through a change from more conventional crops (like continuous cotton) to second-generation biofuel feedstocks (biomass sorghum and perennial grasses). We have established eddy covariance flux towers in producer fields in the Southern High Plains region. Among the four land uses compared, the net carbon uptake was the highest for the biomass sorghum field. During the year 2014, the biomass sorghum field gained approximately 672 gC m-2y-1. The next highest carbon uptake was recorded for the Old World Bluestem grass field, which was approximately 301 gC m-2y-1. The dominant land use in the region is cotton. While the forage sorghum and grass fields acted as net carbon sinks, the irrigated cotton field acted as a net carbon source to the atmosphere during the same period. The irrigated cotton field exhibited a net carbon loss of approximately 246 gC m-2y-1. In contrast, the dryland cotton field acted as a net carbon sink, with a total uptake of approximately 58 g C m-2y-1. The net primary production of the irrigated cotton field was higher than that of the dryland cotton field, yet the irrigated field was a significant carbon source to the atmosphere. This was due to conventional tillage practices combined with irrigation which enhanced the ecosystem respiration significantly compared to the dryland field. In 2014, an early spring cold front caused poor germination of seeds in the majority of the cotton fields in the region, including the eddy covariance site. This site was re-planted on 9 June, which shortened the growing season for cotton. This was also a contributing factor to this field being a net carbon source. When only seasonal data were considered (i.e, from planting to harvest), the biomass sorghum field was the largest net C sink (-668 g C m-2y-1) followed by the grassland field (-298 g C m-2y-1). Among the two cotton fields, the irrigated cotton field remained a net carbon source (38 g C m-2y-1), while the dryland field was a net carbon sink (-127 g C m-2y-1).
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Davis, K. J.; Baier, B.; Baker, D.; Barkley, Z.; Bell, E.; Bowman, K. W.; Browell, E. V.; Campbell, J.; Chen, H. W.; Choi, Y.; DiGangi, J. P.; Dobler, J. T.; Erxleben, W. H.; Fan, T. F.; Feng, S.; Fried, A.; Gaudet, B. J.; Jacobson, A. R.; Keller, K.; Kooi, S. A.; Lauvaux, T.; Lin, B.; McGill, M. J.; McGregor, D.; Michalak, A.; Obland, M. D.; O'Dell, C.; Pal, S.; Parazoo, N.; Pauly, R.; Randazzo, N. A.; Samaddar, A.; Schuh, A. E.; Sweeney, C.; Wesloh, D.; Williams, C. A.; Zhang, F.; Zhou, Y.
2017-12-01
The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT) - America mission aims to improve our understanding of transport and fluxes of greenhouse gases (GHGs) via airborne campaigns spanning a range of mid-latitude weather conditions, and thus to improve the accuracy and precision of regional inverse flux estimates of GHGs. ACT-America has conducted three field campaigns with two aircraft across three regions of the eastern United States during summer 2016, winter 2017 and fall 2017. Simulations of atmospheric GHGs have been conducted for a subset of these campaigns. We present progress from these campaigns. Mid-summer observations suggest a net biological source of CO2 to the atmosphere in the Gulf Coast states. These results contradict those terrestrial biosphere models that show net uptake of CO2 in this region in summer. Methane observations downwind of major sources in the MidAtlantic suggest that these sources are represented fairly well by existing emissions inventories. Flux estimation in other regions is underway. Spatially-coherent differences in GHGs extend throughout the depth of the troposphere are observed at frontal boundaries in summer and winter. These spatial structures are captured in global and mesoscale simulations, though the simulated GHG mole fractions are sometimes biased with respect to observations, suggesting potential biases in synoptic transport. Mesoscale simulations overestimate spatial differences in ABL CO2 mole fractions in fair weather conditions as compared to observations and the CarbonTracker global inverse modeling system. ABL depths are simulated fairly well by both mesoscale and global modeling systems, suggesting that either weather-scale flux amplitudes are overestimated by CarbonTracker, or the mesoscale model lacks parameterized transport above the ABL. Measurements of OCS, 14CO2, and CO are being used to attribute CO2 variability to biogenic and anthropogenic processes and to expand the evaluation of GHG simulation systems. Cross-evaluation of OCO-2 and airborne lidar XCO2 observations against in situ measurements is defining the regional precision and accuracy of these observations. These findings are moving us toward improved regional GHG inverse flux estimates via better understanding of prior fluxes, atmospheric transport, and satellite CO2 observations.
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Land use strategies to mitigate climate change in carbon dense temperate forests.
Law, Beverly E; Hudiburg, Tara W; Berner, Logan T; Kent, Jeffrey J; Buotte, Polly C; Harmon, Mark E
2018-04-03
Strategies to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions through forestry activities have been proposed, but ecosystem process-based integration of climate change, enhanced CO 2 , disturbance from fire, and management actions at regional scales are extremely limited. Here, we examine the relative merits of afforestation, reforestation, management changes, and harvest residue bioenergy use in the Pacific Northwest. This region represents some of the highest carbon density forests in the world, which can store carbon in trees for 800 y or more. Oregon's net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was equivalent to 72% of total emissions in 2011-2015. By 2100, simulations show increased net carbon uptake with little change in wildfires. Reforestation, afforestation, lengthened harvest cycles on private lands, and restricting harvest on public lands increase NECB 56% by 2100, with the latter two actions contributing the most. Resultant cobenefits included water availability and biodiversity, primarily from increased forest area, age, and species diversity. Converting 127,000 ha of irrigated grass crops to native forests could decrease irrigation demand by 233 billion m 3 ⋅y -1 Utilizing harvest residues for bioenergy production instead of leaving them in forests to decompose increased emissions in the short-term (50 y), reducing mitigation effectiveness. Increasing forest carbon on public lands reduced emissions compared with storage in wood products because the residence time is more than twice that of wood products. Hence, temperate forests with high carbon densities and lower vulnerability to mortality have substantial potential for reducing forest sector emissions. Our analysis framework provides a template for assessments in other temperate regions. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
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Grain Yield Observations Constrain Cropland CO2 Fluxes Over Europe
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Combe, M.; de Wit, A. J. W.; Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, J.; van der Molen, M. K.; Magliulo, V.; Peters, W.
2017-12-01
Carbon exchange over croplands plays an important role in the European carbon cycle over daily to seasonal time scales. A better description of this exchange in terrestrial biosphere models—most of which currently treat crops as unmanaged grasslands—is needed to improve atmospheric CO2 simulations. In the framework we present here, we model gross European cropland CO2 fluxes with a crop growth model constrained by grain yield observations. Our approach follows a two-step procedure. In the first step, we calculate day-to-day crop carbon fluxes and pools with the WOrld FOod STudies (WOFOST) model. A scaling factor of crop growth is optimized regionally by minimizing the final grain carbon pool difference to crop yield observations from the Statistical Office of the European Union. In a second step, we re-run our WOFOST model for the full European 25 × 25 km gridded domain using the optimized scaling factors. We combine our optimized crop CO2 fluxes with a simple soil respiration model to obtain the net cropland CO2 exchange. We assess our model's ability to represent cropland CO2 exchange using 40 years of observations at seven European FluxNet sites and compare it with carbon fluxes produced by a typical terrestrial biosphere model. We conclude that our new model framework provides a more realistic and strongly observation-driven estimate of carbon exchange over European croplands. Its products will be made available to the scientific community through the ICOS Carbon Portal and serve as a new cropland component in the CarbonTracker Europe inverse model.
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Land use strategies to mitigate climate change in carbon dense temperate forests
Hudiburg, Tara W.; Berner, Logan T.; Kent, Jeffrey J.; Buotte, Polly C.; Harmon, Mark E.
2018-01-01
Strategies to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions through forestry activities have been proposed, but ecosystem process-based integration of climate change, enhanced CO2, disturbance from fire, and management actions at regional scales are extremely limited. Here, we examine the relative merits of afforestation, reforestation, management changes, and harvest residue bioenergy use in the Pacific Northwest. This region represents some of the highest carbon density forests in the world, which can store carbon in trees for 800 y or more. Oregon’s net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was equivalent to 72% of total emissions in 2011–2015. By 2100, simulations show increased net carbon uptake with little change in wildfires. Reforestation, afforestation, lengthened harvest cycles on private lands, and restricting harvest on public lands increase NECB 56% by 2100, with the latter two actions contributing the most. Resultant cobenefits included water availability and biodiversity, primarily from increased forest area, age, and species diversity. Converting 127,000 ha of irrigated grass crops to native forests could decrease irrigation demand by 233 billion m3⋅y−1. Utilizing harvest residues for bioenergy production instead of leaving them in forests to decompose increased emissions in the short-term (50 y), reducing mitigation effectiveness. Increasing forest carbon on public lands reduced emissions compared with storage in wood products because the residence time is more than twice that of wood products. Hence, temperate forests with high carbon densities and lower vulnerability to mortality have substantial potential for reducing forest sector emissions. Our analysis framework provides a template for assessments in other temperate regions. PMID:29555758
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schaedel, C.; Koven, C.; Celis, G.; Hutchings, J.; Lawrence, D. M.; Mauritz, M.; Pegoraro, E.; Salmon, V. G.; Taylor, M.; Wieder, W. R.; Schuur, E.
2017-12-01
Warming over the Arctic in the last decades has been twice as high as for the rest of the globe and has exposed large amounts of organic carbon to microbial decomposition in permafrost ecosystems. Continued warming and associated changes in soil moisture conditions not only lead to enhanced microbial decomposition from permafrost soil but also enhanced plant carbon uptake. Both processes impact the overall contribution of permafrost carbon dynamics to the global carbon cycle, yet field and modeling studies show large uncertainties in regard to both uptake and release mechanisms. Here, we compare variables associated with ecosystem carbon exchange (GPP: gross primary production; Reco: ecosystem respiration; and NEE: net ecosystem exchange) from eight years of experimental soil warming in moist acidic tundra with the same variables derived from an experimental model (Community Land Model version 4.5: CLM4.5) that simulates the same degree of arctic warming. While soil temperatures and thaw depths exhibited comparable increases with warming between field and model variables, carbon exchange related parameters showed divergent patterns. In the field non-linear responses to experimentally induced permafrost thaw were observed in GPP, Reco, and NEE. Indirect effects of continued soil warming and thaw created changes in soil moisture conditions causing ground surface subsidence and suppressing ecosystem carbon exchange over time. In contrast, the model predicted linear increases in GPP, Reco, and NEE with every year of warming turning the ecosystem into a net annual carbon sink. The field experiment revealed the importance of hydrology in carbon flux responses to permafrost thaw, a complexity that the model may fail to predict. Further parameterization of variables that drive GPP, Reco, and NEE in the model will help to inform and refine future model development.
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Kuribayashi, Masatoshi; Noh, Nam-Jin; Saitoh, Taku M; Ito, Akihiko; Wakazuki, Yasutaka; Muraoka, Hiroyuki
2017-06-01
Accurate projection of carbon budget in forest ecosystems under future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration is important to evaluate the function of terrestrial ecosystems, which serve as a major sink of atmospheric CO 2 . In this study, we examined the effects of spatial resolution of meteorological data on the accuracies of ecosystem model simulation for canopy phenology and carbon budget such as gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem production (NEP) of a deciduous forest in Japan. Then, we simulated the future (around 2085) changes in canopy phenology and carbon budget of the forest by incorporating high-resolution meteorological data downscaled by a regional climate model. The ecosystem model overestimated GPP and ER when we inputted low-resolution data, which have warming biases over mountainous landscape. But, it reproduced canopy phenology and carbon budget well, when we inputted high-resolution data. Under the future climate, earlier leaf expansion and delayed leaf fall by about 10 days compared with the present state was simulated, and also, GPP, ER and NEP were estimated to increase by 25.2%, 23.7% and 35.4%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that the increase of NEP in June and October would be mainly caused by rising temperature, whereas that in July and August would be largely attributable to CO 2 fertilization. This study suggests that the downscaling of future climate data enable us to project more reliable carbon budget of forest ecosystem in mountainous landscape than the low-resolution simulation due to the better predictions of leaf expansion and shedding.
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Andersen, Lykke E; Doyle, Anna Sophia; del Granado, Susana; Ledezma, Juan Carlos; Medinaceli, Agnes; Valdivia, Montserrat; Weinhold, Diana
2016-01-01
Accurate estimates of global carbon emissions are critical for understanding global warming. This paper estimates net carbon emissions from land use change in Bolivia during the periods 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 using a model that takes into account deforestation, forest degradation, forest regrowth, gradual carbon decomposition and accumulation, as well as heterogeneity in both above ground and below ground carbon contents at the 10 by 10 km grid level. The approach permits detailed maps of net emissions by region and type of land cover. We estimate that net CO2 emissions from land use change in Bolivia increased from about 65 million tons per year during 1990-2000 to about 93 million tons per year during 2000-2010, while CO2 emissions per capita and per unit of GDP have remained fairly stable over the sample period. If we allow for estimated biomass increases in mature forests, net CO2 emissions drop to close to zero. Finally, we find these results are robust to alternative methods of calculating emissions.
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Andersen, Lykke E.; Doyle, Anna Sophia; del Granado, Susana; Ledezma, Juan Carlos; Medinaceli, Agnes; Valdivia, Montserrat; Weinhold, Diana
2016-01-01
Accurate estimates of global carbon emissions are critical for understanding global warming. This paper estimates net carbon emissions from land use change in Bolivia during the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 using a model that takes into account deforestation, forest degradation, forest regrowth, gradual carbon decomposition and accumulation, as well as heterogeneity in both above ground and below ground carbon contents at the 10 by 10 km grid level. The approach permits detailed maps of net emissions by region and type of land cover. We estimate that net CO2 emissions from land use change in Bolivia increased from about 65 million tons per year during 1990–2000 to about 93 million tons per year during 2000–2010, while CO2 emissions per capita and per unit of GDP have remained fairly stable over the sample period. If we allow for estimated biomass increases in mature forests, net CO2 emissions drop to close to zero. Finally, we find these results are robust to alternative methods of calculating emissions. PMID:26990865
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Variations in organic carbon fluxes from Long Island Sound to the Continental Shelf
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vlahos, P.; Whitney, M. M.
2017-12-01
Organic carbon balances for the Long Island Sound estuary over the years 2009-2012 are presented to assess the particulate and dissolved organic carbon contributions of the estuary to the adjacent shelf waters with respect to the Delaware and Chesapeake. Observations were coupled to a hydrodynamic model (ROMS) for both seasonal and annual estimates. During stratified summer periods, LIS was consistently a net exporter of OC to the continental shelf. LIS annual net carbon export however, varied with river flow. The heterotrophic or autotrophic nature of LIS also shifted seasonally and inter-annually. During the mass balance analysis period LIS ranged between net OC import from the continental shelf and heterotrophy in the lowest river flow year (2012) and net export of OC and autotrophy in the highest flow year (2011). Analysis suggests that LIS switches from net OC import to export when the annual river inputs exceed 19 km3 yr-1. Applying these thresholds to the annual river flow record suggests that net import occurred in 15% of the last 20 years and that LIS usually is a net exporter of OC (85%). Annually averaged LIS carbon export values based on river flow conditions over the last 20 yr are estimated at 56 ± 64 x 106 km3 yr-1. Analysis also suggests that LIS shifts from net heterotrophic to net autotrophic when annual river flow exceeds 26 km3 yr-1 (35% of the last 20 yr). Net heterotrophic conditions are most common, representing 65% of the last 20 yr.
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The simulated climate of the Last Glacial Maximum and insights into the global carbon cycle.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Buchanan, P. J.; Matear, R.; Lenton, A.; Phipps, S. J.; Chase, Z.; Etheridge, D. M.
2016-12-01
The ocean's ability to store large quantities of carbon, combined with the millennial longevity over which this reservoir is overturned, has implicated the ocean as a key driver of glacial-interglacial climates. However, the combination of processes that cause an accumulation of carbon within the ocean during glacial periods is still under debate. Here we present simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using the CSIRO Mk3L-COAL Earth System Model to test the contribution of key biogeochemical processes to ocean carbon storage. For the coupled LGM simulation, we find that significant cooling (3.2 °C), expanded minimum (Northern Hemisphere: 105 %; Southern Hemisphere: 225 %) and maximum (Northern Hemisphere: 145 %; Southern Hemisphere: 120 %) sea ice cover, and a reorganisation of the overturning circulation caused significant changes in ocean biogeochemical fields. The coupled LGM simulation stores an additional 322 Pg C in the deep ocean relative to the Pre-Industrial (PI) simulation. However, 839 Pg C is lost from the upper ocean via equilibration with a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration, causing a net loss of 517 Pg C relative to the PI simulation. The LGM deep ocean also experiences an oxygenation (>100 mmol O2 m-3) and deepening of the aragonite saturation depth (> 2,000 m deeper) at odds with proxy reconstructions. Hence, these physical changes cannot in isolation produce plausible biogeochemistry nor the required drawdown of atmospheric CO2 of 80-100 ppm at the LGM. With modifications to key biogeochemical processes, which include an increased export of organic matter due to a simulated release from iron limitation, a deepening of remineralisation and decreased inorganic carbon export driven by cooler temperatures, we find that the carbon content in the glacial oceanic reservoir can be increased (326 Pg C) to a level that is sufficient to explain the reduction in atmospheric and terrestrial carbon at the LGM (520 ± 400 Pg C). These modifications also go some way to reconcile simulated export production, aragonite saturation state and oxygen fields with those that have been reconstructed by proxy measurements, thereby implicating past changes in ocean biogeochemistry as an essential driver of the climate system.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mezbahuddin, Mohammad; Grant, Robert F.; Flanagan, Lawrence B.
2017-12-01
Water table depth (WTD) effects on net ecosystem CO2 exchange of boreal peatlands are largely mediated by hydrological effects on peat biogeochemistry and the ecophysiology of peatland vegetation. The lack of representation of these effects in carbon models currently limits our predictive capacity for changes in boreal peatland carbon deposits under potential future drier and warmer climates. We examined whether a process-level coupling of a prognostic WTD with (1) oxygen transport, which controls energy yields from microbial and root oxidation-reduction reactions, and (2) vascular and nonvascular plant water relations could explain mechanisms that control variations in net CO2 exchange of a boreal fen under contrasting WTD conditions, i.e., shallow vs. deep WTD. Such coupling of eco-hydrology and biogeochemistry algorithms in a process-based ecosystem model, ecosys, was tested against net ecosystem CO2 exchange measurements in a western Canadian boreal fen peatland over a period of drier-weather-driven gradual WTD drawdown. A May-October WTD drawdown of ˜ 0.25 m from 2004 to 2009 hastened oxygen transport to microbial and root surfaces, enabling greater microbial and root energy yields and peat and litter decomposition, which raised modeled ecosystem respiration (Re) by 0.26 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 per 0.1 m of WTD drawdown. It also augmented nutrient mineralization, and hence root nutrient availability and uptake, which resulted in improved leaf nutrient (nitrogen) status that facilitated carboxylation and raised modeled vascular gross primary productivity (GPP) and plant growth. The increase in modeled vascular GPP exceeded declines in modeled nonvascular (moss) GPP due to greater shading from increased vascular plant growth and moss drying from near-surface peat desiccation, thereby causing a net increase in modeled growing season GPP by 0.39 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 per 0.1 m of WTD drawdown. Similar increases in GPP and Re caused no significant WTD effects on modeled seasonal and interannual variations in net ecosystem productivity (NEP). These modeled trends were corroborated well by eddy covariance measured hourly net CO2 fluxes (modeled vs. measured: R2 ˜ 0.8, slopes ˜ 1 ± 0.1, intercepts ˜ 0.05 µmol m-2 s-1), hourly measured automated chamber net CO2 fluxes (modeled vs. measured: R2 ˜ 0.7, slopes ˜ 1 ± 0.1, intercepts ˜ 0.4 µmol m-2 s-1), and other biometric and laboratory measurements. Modeled drainage as an analog for WTD drawdown induced by climate-change-driven drying showed that this boreal peatland would switch from a large carbon sink (NEP ˜ 160 g C m-2 yr-1) to carbon neutrality (NEP ˜ 10 g C m-2 yr-1) should the water table deepen by a further ˜ 0.5 m. This decline in projected NEP indicated that a further WTD drawdown at this fen would eventually lead to a decline in GPP due to water limitation. Therefore, representing the effects of interactions among hydrology, biogeochemistry and plant physiological ecology on ecosystem carbon, water, and nutrient cycling in global carbon models would improve our predictive capacity for changes in boreal peatland carbon sequestration under changing climates.
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Climatic and biotic controls on annual carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems
Tian, H.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Helfrich, J.; Moore, B.; Vorosmarty, C.J.
2000-01-01
1 The role of undisturbed tropical land ecosystems in the global carbon budget is not well understood. It has been suggested that inter-annual climate variability can affect the capacity of these ecosystems to store carbon in the short term. In this paper, we use a transient version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to estimate annual carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems during the period 1980-94, and to understand the underlying causes of the year-to-year variations in net carbon storage for this region. 2 We estimate that the total carbon storage in the undisturbed ecosystems of the Amazon Basin in 1980 was 127.6 Pg C, with about 94.3 Pg C in vegetation and 33.3 Pg C in the reactive pool of soil organic carbon. About 83% of the total carbon storage occurred in tropical evergreen forests. Based on our model's results, we estimate that, over the past 15 years, the total carbon storage has increased by 3.1 Pg C (+ 2%), with a 1.9-Pg C (+2%) increase in vegetation carbon and a 1.2-Pg C (+4%) increase in reactive soil organic carbon. The modelled results indicate that the largest relative changes in net carbon storage have occurred in tropical deciduous forests, but that the largest absolute changes in net carbon storage have occurred in the moist and wet forests of the Basin. 3 Our results show that the strength of interannual variations in net carbon storage of undisturbed ecosystems in the Amazon Basin varies from a carbon source of 0.2 Pg C/year to a carbon sink of 0.7 Pg C/year. Precipitation, especially the amount received during the drier months, appears to be a major controller of annual net carbon storage in the Amazon Basin. Our analysis indicates further that changes in precipitation combine with changes in temperature to affect net carbon storage through influencing soil moisture and nutrient availability. 4 On average, our results suggest that the undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems accumulated 0.2 Pg C/year as a result of climate variability and increasing atmospheric CO2 over the study period. This amount is large enough to have compensated for most of the carbon losses associated with tropical deforestation in the Amazon during the same period. 5 Comparisons with empirical data indicate that climate variability and CO2 fertilization explain most of the variation in net carbon storage for the undisturbed ecosystems. Our analyses suggest that assessment of the regional carbon budget in the tropics should be made over at least one cycle of El Nino-Southern Oscillation because of inter-annual climate variability. Our analyses also suggest that proper scaling of the site-specific and sub-annual measurements of carbon fluxes to produce Basin-wide flux estimates must take into account seasonal and spatial variations in net carbon storage.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hirsch, A. I.; Little, W. S.; Houghton, R. A.; Scott, N. A.; White, J. D.
2004-01-01
We developed a process-based model of forest growth, carbon cycling, and land cover dynamics named CARLUC (for CARbon and Land Use Change) to estimate the size of terrestrial carbon pools in terra firme (non-flooded) forests across the Brazilian Legal Amazon and the net flux of carbon resulting from forest disturbance and forest recovery from disturbance. Our goal in building the model was to construct a relatively simple ecosystem model that would respond to soil and climatic heterogeneity that allows us to study of the impact of Amazonian deforestation, selective logging, and accidental fire on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the net flux caused by deforestation and forest re-growth over the period from 1970-1998. We calculate that the net flux to the atmosphere during this period reached a maximum of approx. 0.35 PgC/yr (1PgC = 1 x 10(exp I5) gC) in 1990, with a cumulative release of approx. 7 PgC from 1970- 1998. The net flux is higher than predicted by an earlier study by a total of 1 PgC over the period 1989-1 998 mainly because CARLUC predicts relatively high mature forest carbon storage compared to the datasets used in the earlier study. Incorporating the dynamics of litter and soil carbon pools into the model increases the cumulative net flux by approx. 1 PgC from 1970-1998, while different assumptions about land cover dynamics only caused small changes. The uncertainty of the net flux, calculated with a Monte-Carlo approach, is roughly 35% of the mean value (1 SD).
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Assessing the influence of historic net and gross land changes on the carbon fluxes of Europe.
Fuchs, Richard; Schulp, Catharina J E; Hengeveld, Geerten M; Verburg, Peter H; Clevers, Jan G P W; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Herold, Martin
2016-07-01
Legacy effects of land cover/use on carbon fluxes require considering both present and past land cover/use change dynamics. To assess past land use dynamics, model-based reconstructions of historic land cover/use are needed. Most historic reconstructions consider only the net area difference between two time steps (net changes) instead of accounting for all area gains and losses (gross changes). Studies about the impact of gross and net land change accounting methods on the carbon balance are still lacking. In this study, we assessed historic changes in carbon in soils for five land cover/use types and of carbon in above-ground biomass of forests. The assessment focused on Europe for the period 1950 to 2010 with decadal time steps at 1-km spatial resolution using a bookkeeping approach. To assess the implications of gross land change data, we also used net land changes for comparison. Main contributors to carbon sequestration between 1950 and 2010 were afforestation and cropland abandonment leading to 14.6 PgC sequestered carbon (of which 7.6 PgC was in forest biomass). Sequestration was highest for old-growth forest areas. A sequestration dip was reached during the 1970s due to changes in forest management practices. Main contributors to carbon emissions were deforestation (1.7 PgC) and stable cropland areas on peaty soils (0.8 PgC). In total, net fluxes summed up to 203 TgC yr(-1) (98 TgC yr(-1) in forest biomass and 105 TgC yr(-1) in soils). For areas that were subject to land changes in both reconstructions (35% of total area), the differences in carbon fluxes were about 68%. Overall for Europe the difference between accounting for either gross or net land changes led to 7% difference (up to 11% per decade) in carbon fluxes with systematically higher fluxes for gross land change data. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Accounting for Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Biomass Energy Combustion (released in AEO2010)
2010-01-01
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions from the combustion of biomass to produce energy are excluded from the energy-related CO2 emissions reported in Annual Energy Outlook 2010. According to current international convention, carbon released through biomass combustion is excluded from reported energy-related emissions. The release of carbon from biomass combustion is assumed to be balanced by the uptake of carbon when the feedstock is grown, resulting in zero net emissions over some period of time]. However, analysts have debated whether increased use of biomass energy may result in a decline in terrestrial carbon stocks, leading to a net positive release of carbon rather than the zero net release assumed by its exclusion from reported energy-related emissions.
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Temporal evolution of carbon budgets of the Appalachian forests in the U.S. from 1972 to 2000
Liu, J.; Liu, S.; Loveland, Thomas R.
2006-01-01
Estimating dynamic terrestrial ecosystem carbon (C) sources and sinks over large areas is difficult. The scaling of C sources and sinks from the field level to the regional level has been challenging due to the variations of climate, soil, vegetation, and disturbances. As part of an effort to estimate the spatial, temporal, and sectional dimensions of the United States C sources and sinks (the U.S. Carbon Trends Project), this study estimated the forest ecosystem C sequestration of the Appalachian region (186,000 km2) for the period of 1972–2000 using the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) that has a strong capability of assimilating land use and land cover change (LUCC) data. On 82 sampling blocks in the Appalachian region, GEMS used sequential 60 m resolution land cover change maps to capture forest stand-replacing events and used forest inventory data to estimate non-stand-replacing changes. GEMS also used Monte Carlo approaches to deal with spatial scaling issues such as initialization of forest age and soil properties. Ensemble simulations were performed to incorporate the uncertainties of input data. Simulated results show that from 1972 to 2000 the net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and net biome productivity (NBP) averaged 6.2 Mg C ha−1 y−1 (±1.1), 2.2 Mg C ha−1 y−1 (±0.6), and 1.8 Mg C ha−1 y−1(±0.6), respectively. The inter-annual variability was driven mostly by climate. Detailed C budgets for the year 2000 were also calculated. Within a total 148,000 km2 forested area, average forest ecosystem C density was estimated to be 186 Mg C ha−1 (±20), of which 98 Mg C ha−1 (±12) was in biomass and 88 Mg C ha−1 (±13) was in litter and soil. The total simulated C stock of the Appalachian forests was estimated to be 2751 Tg C (±296), including 1454 Tg C (±178) in living biomass and 1297 Tg C (±192) in litter and soil. The total net C sequestration (i.e. NBP) of the forest ecosystem in 2000 was estimated to be 19.5 Tg C y−1 (±6.8).
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Net carbon flux in organic and conventional olive production systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Saeid Mohamad, Ramez; Verrastro, Vincenzo; Bitar, Lina Al; Roma, Rocco; Moretti, Michele; Chami, Ziad Al
2014-05-01
Agricultural systems are considered as one of the most relevant sources of atmospheric carbon. However, agriculture has the potentiality to mitigate carbon dioxide mainly through soil carbon sequestration. Some agricultural practices, particularly fertilization and soil management, can play a dual role in the agricultural systems regarding the carbon cycle contributing to the emissions and to the sequestration process in the soil. Good soil and input managements affect positively Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) changes and consequently the carbon cycle. The present study aimed at comparing the carbon footprint of organic and conventional olive systems and to link it to the efficiency of both systems on carbon sequestration by calculating the net carbon flux. Data were collected at farm level through a specific and detailed questionnaire based on one hectare as a functional unit and a system boundary limited to olive production. Using LCA databases particularly ecoinvent one, IPCC GWP 100a impact assessment method was used to calculate carbon emissions from agricultural practices of both systems. Soil organic carbon has been measured, at 0-30 cm depth, based on soil analyses done at the IAMB laboratory and based on reference value of SOC, the annual change of SOC has been calculated. Substracting sequestrated carbon in the soil from the emitted on resulted in net carbon flux calculation. Results showed higher environmental impact of the organic system on Global Warming Potential (1.07 t CO2 eq. yr-1) comparing to 0.76 t CO2 eq. yr-1 in the conventional system due to the higher GHG emissions caused by manure fertilizers compared to the use of synthetic foliar fertilizers in the conventional system. However, manure was the main reason behind the higher SOC content and sequestration in the organic system. As a resultant, the organic system showed higher net carbon flux (-1.7 t C ha-1 yr-1 than -0.52 t C ha-1 yr-1 in the conventional system reflecting higher efficiency as a sink for atmospheric CO2 (the negative value of Net C flux indicates that a system is a net sink for atmospheric CO2). In conclusion, this study illustrates the importance of including soil carbon sequestration associated with CO2 emissions in the evaluation process between alternatives of agricultural systems. Thus, organic olive system offers an opportunity to increase carbon sequestration compared to the conventional one although it causes higher C emissions from manure fertilization. Keywords: Net carbon flux, GHG, organic, olive, soil organic carbon
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Impact of precipitation dynamics on net ecosystem exchange
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange (NEE) was measured on shortgrass steppe (SGS) vegetation at the USDA Central Plains Experimental Range in northeastern Colorado from 2001-2003. Large year-to-year differences were observed in annual NEE, with > 95% of the net carbon uptake occurring during...
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O'Neill, Susan M; Lamb, Brian K; Chen, Jack; Claiborn, Candis; Finn, Dennis; Otterson, Sally; Figueroa, Cristiana; Bowman, Clint; Boyer, Mike; Wilson, Rob; Arnold, Jeff; Aalbers, Steven; Stocum, Jeffrey; Swab, Christopher; Stoll, Matt; Dubois, Mike; Anderson, Mary
2006-02-15
The Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system was used to investigate ozone and aerosol concentrations in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) during hot summertime conditions during July 1-15, 1996. Two emission inventories (El) were developed: emissions for the first El were based upon the National Emission Trend 1996 (NET96) database and the BEIS2 biogenic emission model, and emissions for the second El were developed through a "bottom up" approach that included biogenic emissions obtained from the GLOBEIS model. The two simulations showed that elevated PM2.5 concentrations occurred near and downwind of the Interstate-5 corridor along the foothills of the Cascade Mountains and in forested areas of central Idaho. The relative contributions of organic and inorganic aerosols varied by region, but generally organic aerosols constituted the largest fraction of PM2.5. In wilderness areas near the 1-5 corridor, organic carbon from anthropogenic sources contributed approximately 50% of the total organic carbon with the remainder from biogenic precursors, while in wilderness areas in Idaho, biogenic organic carbon accounted for 80% of the total organic aerosol. Regional analysis of the secondary organic aerosol formation in the Columbia River Gorge, Central Idaho, and the Olympics/Puget Sound showed that the production rate of secondary organic carbon depends on local terpene concentrations and the local oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere, which was strongly influenced by anthropogenic emissions. Comparison with observations from 12 IMPROVE sites and 21 ozone monitoring sites showed that results from the two El simulations generally bracketed the average observed PM parameters and that errors calculated for the model results were within acceptable bounds. Analysis across all statistical parameters indicated that the NW-AIRQUEST El solution performed better at predicting PM2.5, PM1, and beta(ext) even though organic carbon PM was over-predicted, and the NET96 El solution performed better with regard to the inorganic aerosols. For the NW-AIRQUEST El solution, the normalized bias was 30% and the normalized absolute error was 49% for PM2.5 mass. The NW-AIRQUEST solution slightly overestimated peak hourly ozone downwind of urban areas, while the NET96 solution slightly underestimated peak values, and both solutions over-predicted average 03 concentrations across the domain by approximately 6 ppb.
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Exploring global carbon turnover and radiocarbon cycling in terrestrial biosphere models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Graven, H. D.; Warren, H.
2017-12-01
The uptake of carbon into terrestrial ecosystems through net primary productivity (NPP) and the turnover of that carbon through various pathways are the fundamental drivers of changing carbon stocks on land, in addition to human-induced and natural disturbances. Terrestrial biosphere models use different formulations for carbon uptake and release, resulting in a range of values in NPP of 40-70 PgC/yr and biomass turnover times of about 25-40 years for the preindustrial period in current-generation models from CMIP5. Biases in carbon uptake and turnover impact simulated carbon uptake and storage in the historical period and later in the century under changing climate and CO2 concentration, however evaluating global-scale NPP and carbon turnover is challenging. Scaling up of plot-scale measurements involves uncertainty due to the large heterogeneity across ecosystems and biomass types, some of which are not well-observed. We are developing the modelling of radiocarbon in terrestrial biosphere models, with a particular focus on decadal 14C dynamics after the nuclear weapons testing in the 1950s-60s, including the impact of carbon flux trends and variability on 14C cycling. We use an estimate of the total inventory of excess 14C in the biosphere constructed by Naegler and Levin (2009) using a 14C budget approach incorporating estimates of total 14C produced by the weapons tests and atmospheric and oceanic 14C observations. By simulating radiocarbon in simple biosphere box models using carbon fluxes from the CMIP5 models, we find that carbon turnover is too rapid in many of the simple models - the models appear to take up too much 14C and release it too quickly. Therefore many CMIP5 models may also simulate carbon turnover that is too rapid. A caveat is that the simple box models we use may not adequately represent carbon dynamics in the full-scale models. Explicit simulation of radiocarbon in terrestrial biosphere models would allow more robust evaluation of biosphere models and the investigation of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks on various timescales. Explicit simulation of radiocarbon and carbon-13 in terrestrial biosphere models of Earth System Models, as well as in ocean models, is recommended by CMIP6 and supported by CMIP6 protocols and forcing datasets.
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Development of the BIOME-BGC model for the simulation of managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystems.
Mao, Fangjie; Li, Pingheng; Zhou, Guomo; Du, Huaqiang; Xu, Xiaojun; Shi, Yongjun; Mo, Lufeng; Zhou, Yufeng; Tu, Guoqing
2016-05-01
Numerical models are the most appropriate instrument for the analysis of the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems and their interactions with changing environmental conditions. The process-based model BIOME-BGC is widely used in simulation of carbon balance within vegetation, litter and soil of unmanaged ecosystems. For Moso bamboo forests, however, simulations with BIOME-BGC are inaccurate in terms of the growing season and the carbon allocation, due to the oversimplified representation of phenology. Our aim was to improve the applicability of BIOME-BGC for managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystem by implementing several new modules, including phenology, carbon allocation, and management. Instead of the simple phenology and carbon allocation representations in the original version, a periodic Moso bamboo phenology and carbon allocation module was implemented, which can handle the processes of Moso bamboo shooting and high growth during "on-year" and "off-year". Four management modules (digging bamboo shoots, selective cutting, obtruncation, fertilization) were integrated in order to quantify the functioning of managed ecosystems. The improved model was calibrated and validated using eddy covariance measurement data collected at a managed Moso bamboo forest site (Anji) during 2011-2013 years. As a result of these developments and calibrations, the performance of the model was substantially improved. Regarding the measured and modeled fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration, net ecosystem exchange), relative errors were decreased by 42.23%, 103.02% and 18.67%, respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; François, Louis; Dury, Marie; Hambuckers, Alain; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Minet, Julien; Tychon, Bernard; Heinesch, Bernard; Horemans, Joanna; Deckmyn, Gaby
2015-04-01
Eddy covariance measurements are an essential resource to understand how ecosystem carbon fluxes react in response to climate change, and to help to evaluate and validate the performance of land surface and vegetation models at regional and global scale. In the framework of the MASC project (« Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate »), vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes of forest and grassland ecosystems simulated by the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) are evaluated and validated by comparison of the model predictions with eddy covariance data. Here carbon fluxes (e.g. net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (RECO)) and evapotranspiration (ET) simulated with the CARAIB model are compared with the fluxes measured at several eddy covariance flux tower sites in Belgium and Western Europe, chosen from the FLUXNET global network (http://fluxnet.ornl.gov/). CARAIB is forced either with surface atmospheric variables derived from the global CRU climatology, or with in situ meteorological data. Several tree (e.g. Pinus sylvestris, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies) and grass species (e.g. Poaceae, Asteraceae) are simulated, depending on the species encountered on the studied sites. The aim of our work is to assess the model ability to reproduce the daily, seasonal and interannual variablility of carbon fluxes and the carbon dynamics of forest and grassland ecosystems in Belgium and Western Europe.
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Liu, Bo Jie; Lu, Fei; Wang, Xiao Ke; Liu, Wei Wei
2017-02-01
Forests play an important role in climate change mitigation and concentration of CO 2 reduction in the atmosphere. Forest management, especially afforestation and forest protection, could increase carbon stock of forests significantly. Carbon sequestration rate of afforestation ranges from 0.04 to 7.52 t C·hm -2 ·a -1 , while that of forest protection is 0.33-5.20 t C·hm -2 ·a -1 . At the same time, greenhouse gas (GHG) is generated within management boundary due to the production and transportation of the materials consumed in relevant activities of afforestation and forest management. In addition, carbon leakage is also generated outside boundary from activity shifting, market effects and change of environments induced by forest management. In this review, we summarized the definition of emission sources of GHG, monitoring methods, quantity and rate of greenhouse gas emissions within boundary of afforestation and forest management. In addition, types, monitoring methods and quantity of carbon leakage outside boundary of forest management were also analyzed. Based on the reviewed results of carbon sequestration, we introduced greenhouse gas emissions within boundary and carbon leakage, net carbon sequestration as well as the countervailing effects of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon leakage to carbon sequestration. Greenhouse gas emissions within management boundary counteract 0.01%-19.3% of carbon sequestration, and such counteraction could increase to as high as 95% considering carbon leakage. Afforestation and forest management have substantial net carbon sequestration benefits, when only taking direct greenhouse gas emissions within boundary and measurable carbon leakage from activity shifting into consideration. Compared with soil carbon sequestration measures in croplands, afforestation and forest management is more advantageous in net carbon sequestration and has better prospects for application in terms of net mitigation potential. Along with the implementation of the new stage of key ecological stewardship projects in China as well as the concern on carbon benefits brought by projects, it is necessary to make efforts to increase net carbon sequestration via reducing greenhouse gas emissions and carbon leakage. Rational planning before start-up of the projects should be promoted to avoid carbon emissions due to unnecessary consumption of materials and energy. Additionally, strengthening the control and monitoring on greenhouse gas emissions and carbon leakage during the implementation of projects are also advocated.
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[Simulation of water and carbon fluxes in harvard forest area based on data assimilation method].
Zhang, Ting-Long; Sun, Rui; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Zhang, Lei
2013-10-01
Model simulation and in situ observation are the two most important means in studying the water and carbon cycles of terrestrial ecosystems, but have their own advantages and shortcomings. To combine these two means would help to reflect the dynamic changes of ecosystem water and carbon fluxes more accurately. Data assimilation provides an effective way to integrate the model simulation and in situ observation. Based on the observation data from the Harvard Forest Environmental Monitoring Site (EMS), and by using ensemble Kalman Filter algorithm, this paper assimilated the field measured LAI and remote sensing LAI into the Biome-BGC model to simulate the water and carbon fluxes in Harvard forest area. As compared with the original model simulated without data assimilation, the improved Biome-BGC model with the assimilation of the field measured LAI in 1998, 1999, and 2006 increased the coefficient of determination R2 between model simulation and flux observation for the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and evapotranspiration by 8.4% and 10.6%, decreased the sum of absolute error (SAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of NEE by 17.7% and 21.2%, and decreased the SAE and RMSE of the evapotranspiration by 26. 8% and 28.3%, respectively. After assimilated the MODIS LAI products of 2000-2004 into the improved Biome-BGC model, the R2 between simulated and observed results of NEE and evapotranspiration was increased by 7.8% and 4.7%, the SAE and RMSE of NEE were decreased by 21.9% and 26.3%, and the SAE and RMSE of evapotranspiration were decreased by 24.5% and 25.5%, respectively. It was suggested that the simulation accuracy of ecosystem water and carbon fluxes could be effectively improved if the field measured LAI or remote sensing LAI was integrated into the model.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dimitrov, Dimitre D.; Grant, Robert F.; Lafleur, Peter M.; Humphreys, Elyn R.
2011-12-01
The ecosys model was applied to investigate the effects of water table and subsurface hydrology changes on carbon dioxide exchange at the ombrotrophic Mer Bleue peatland, Ontario, Canada. It was hypothesized that (1) water table drawdown would not affect vascular canopy water potential, hence vascular productivity, because roots would penetrate deeper to compensate for near-surface dryness, (2) moss canopy water potential and productivity would be severely reduced because rhizoids occupy the uppermost peat that is subject to desiccation with water table decline, and (3) given that in a previous study of Mer Bleue, ecosystem respiration showed little sensitivity to water table drawdown, gross primary productivity would mainly determine the net ecosystem productivity through these vegetation-subsurface hydrology linkages. Model output was compared with literature reports and hourly eddy-covariance measurements during 2000-2004. Our findings suggest that late-summer water table drawdown in 2001 had only a minor impact on vascular canopy water potential but greatly impacted hummock moss water potential, where midday values declined to -250 MPa on average in the model. As a result, simulated moss productivity was reduced by half, which largely explained a reduction of 2-3 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1 in midday simulated and measurement-derived gross primary productivity and an equivalent reduction in simulated and measured net ecosystem productivity. The water content of the near-surface peat (top 5-10 cm) was found to be the most important driver of interannual variability of annual net ecosystem productivity through its effects on hummock moss productivity and on ecosystem respiration.
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Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation
Bala, G.; Caldeira, K.; Wickett, M.; Phillips, T. J.; Lobell, D. B.; Delire, C.; Mirin, A.
2007-01-01
The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO2 to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These simulations were performed by using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate, because the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. Although these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate. PMID:17420463
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Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation.
Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Wickett, M; Phillips, T J; Lobell, D B; Delire, C; Mirin, A
2007-04-17
The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO(2) to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These simulations were performed by using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate, because the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. Although these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate.
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Combined Climate and Carbon-Cycle Effects of Large-Scale Deforestation
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Wickett, M
2006-10-17
The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These are the first such simulations performed using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has amore » net cooling influence on Earth's climate, since the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. While these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate.« less
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Comparison of simulation modeling and satellite techniques for monitoring ecological processes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Box, Elgene O.
1988-01-01
In 1985 improvements were made in the world climatic data base for modeling and predictive mapping; in individual process models and the overall carbon-balance models; and in the interface software for mapping the simulation results. Statistical analysis of the data base was begun. In 1986 mapping was shifted to NASA-Goddard. The initial approach involving pattern comparisons was modified to a more statistical approach. A major accomplishment was the expansion and improvement of a global data base of measurements of biomass and primary production, to complement the simulation data. The main accomplishments during 1987 included: production of a master tape with all environmental and satellite data and model results for the 1600 sites; development of a complete mapping system used for the initial color maps comparing annual and monthly patterns of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), actual evapotranspiration, net primary productivity, gross primary productivity, and net ecosystem production; collection of more biosphere measurements for eventual improvement of the biological models; and development of some initial monthly models for primary productivity, based on satellite data.
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A modelling approach to estimate carbon emissions from D.R.C. deforestation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Najdovski, Nicolas; Poulter, Benjamin; Defourny, Pierre; Moreau, Inès; Maignan, Fabienne; Ciais, Philippe; Verhegghen, Astrid; Kibambe Lubamba, Jean-Paul; Jungers, Quentin; De Weirdt, Marjolein; Verbeeck, Hans; MacBean, Natasha; Peylin, Philippe
2014-05-01
With its 1.8 million squared kilometres, the Congo basin dense forest represents the second largest contiguous forest of the world. These extensive forest ecosystems play a significant role in the regulation of global climate by their potential carbon dioxide emissions and carbon storage. Under a stable climate, the vegetation, assumed to be at the equilibrium, is known to present neutral emissions over a year with seasonal variations. However, modifications in temperatures, precipitations, CO2 atmospheric concentrations have the potential to modify this balance leading to higher or lower biomass storage. In addition, deforestation and forest degradation have played a significant role over the past several decades and are expected to become increasingly important in the future. Here, we quantify the relative effects of deforestation and 21st century climate change on carbon emissions in Congo Basin over the next three decades (2005-2035). Carbon dioxide emissions are estimated using a series of moderate resolution (10 km) vegetation maps merged with spatially explicit deforestation projections and developed to work with a prognostic carbon cycle model. The inversion of the deforestation model allowed hindcast land-use patterns back to 1800 by using land cover change rates based on the HYDE database. Simulations were made over the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) using the ORCHIDEE dynamic global vegetation model with climate forcing from the CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario for the HadGEM2. Two simulations were made, a reference simulation with land cover fixed at 2005 and a land cover change simulation with changing climate and CO2, to quantify the net land cover change emissions and climate emissions directly. Because of the relatively high resolution of the model simulations, the spatial patterns of human-driven carbon losses can be tracked in the context of climate change, providing information for mitigation and vulnerability activities.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Quillet, Anne; Garneau, Michelle; Frolking, Steve; Roulet, Nigel; Peng, Changhui
2010-05-01
The Holocene Peatland Model (HPM) (Frolking et al. 2009, Frolking et al. in prep.) is a recently developed tool integrating up-to-date knowledge on peatland dynamics that explores peatland development and carbon dynamics on a millennial timescale. HPM combines the water and carbon cycles with net primary production and peat decomposition and takes the multiple feedbacks into account. The model remains simple and few site-specific inputs are needed. HPM simulates the transient development of the peatland and delivers peat age, peat depth, peat composition, carbon accumulation and water table depth for each simulated year. Evaluating the ability of the model to reproduce peatland development can be achieved in several manners. Commonly one could choose to compare simulations results with observations from field data. However, we argue that the overall response of the model does not give much information about the value of the model design. Modelling of peatlands dynamics requires a lot of information regarding the behaviour of a peatland system within its environment (including allogenic changes in climate, hydrological conditions, nutrient availability or autogenic processes such as microtopographical effects). The actual state of knowledge does not cover all processes, interactions or feedbacks and a lot of peatland properties are neither well defined nor measured yet, so that estimates have been needed to build the model. The work presented here aims at analyzing the role of the model parameterization on the simulation results. To do so, a sensitivity analysis is performed with a Monte-Carlo analysis and with help of the GUI-HDMR software (Ziehn and Tomlin, 2009). This method ranks the parameters and combinations of them according to their influence on simulation results. The results will emphasize how the simulation is sensitive to the parameter values. First, the distribution of outputs gives insight into the possible responses of the simulation to HPM's assemblage of current knowledge. Second, the importance of some parameters on simulation results points out certain gaps in the current understanding of peatland dynamics. Thus, this study helps determine some avenues that should be explored in future in order to improve peatlands dynamics understanding. Frolking S, NT Roulet, A Quillet, E Tuittila, JL Bubier. 2009. Simulating long-term carbon and water dynamics in northern peatlands Eos Trans. AGU, 90(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract PP12B-05. Frolking S, NT Roulet, E Tuittila, JL Bubier, A Quillet. XXXX. A new model of Holocene peatland net primary production, decomposition, and peat accumulation. in prep. Ziehn T, AS Tomlin. 2009. GUI-HDMR - A solftware tool for global sensitivity analysis of complex models. Environmental Modelling & Software, 24, 775-785.
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Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration in National Parks: Values for the Conterminous United States
Richardson, Leslie A.; Huber, Christopher; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Koontz, Lynne
2015-01-01
Lands managed by the National Park Service (NPS) provide a wide range of beneficial services to the American public. This study quantifies the ecosystem service value of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems within NPS units in the conterminous United States for which data were available. Combining annual net carbon balance data with spatially explicit NPS land unit boundaries and social cost of carbon estimates, this study calculates the net metric tons of carbon dioxide sequestered annually by park unit under baseline conditions, as well as the associated economic value to society. Results show that, in aggregate, NPS lands in the conterminous United States are a net carbon sink, sequestering more than 14.8 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually. The associated societal value of this service is estimated at approximately $582.5 million per year. While this analysis provides a broad overview of the annual value of carbon sequestration on NPS lands averaged over a five year baseline period, it should be noted that carbon fluxes fluctuate from year to year, and there can be considerable variation in net carbon balance and its associated value within a given park unit. Future research could look in-depth at the spatial heterogeneity of carbon flux within specific NPS land units.
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Ziu, Xiao Xia; Zhang, Xiao Jun; Wang, Yue Fu; Wang, Ming Lun
2018-03-01
Clarifying the carbon emissions in wheat-summer direct-seeding peanut planting (W-P) system could help realize the synergistic effects of high yield and low carbon emissions. Based on whole life cycle method, we constructed a carbon footprint model to calculate the carbon emissions of W-P system. We found that the net income of W-P system was 71.2%-88.3% higher than that of wheat-maize rotation (W-M) system. The carbon emissions per unit area under W-P system was 6977.9-8018.5 kg·hm -2 , being 6.2% higher than that of W-M system. The carbon emission of per net income under W-P system was 0.23-0.28 kg CO 2 -eq·yuan -1 , which was 37.4%-44.1% lower than that of W-M system. Combining the net income and carbon emissions of per net income, W-P system could achieve synergistic effects of high yield and low carbon emissions, which would fulfill the targets of agricultural supply-side structural reform with optimizing supply, enhancing quality and efficiency, and increasing income of peasants.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Noble Stuen, A. J.; Kavanagh, K.; Wheeler, T.
2010-12-01
Wild anadromous fish such as Pacific Chinook salmon (Oncorynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (Oncorhyncus mykiss) were once abundant in Idaho, where they deposited their carcasses, rich in marine-derived nutrients (MDN), in the tributaries of the Columbia River. Anadromous fish are believed to have been a historically important nutrient source to the relatively nutrient-poor inland ecosystems of central Idaho, but no longer reach many inland watersheds due to presence of dams. This study investigates the multi-decadal cumulative effect of presence versus absence of anadromous fish nitrogen on net ecosystem exchange (NEE), or net carbon uptake, of riparian forests along historically salmon-bearing streams in the North Fork Boise River watershed, Idaho, in the context of a changing climate. The ecosystem process model BIOME-BGC is used to develop a representative forest ecosystem and predict the impact of decades of addition and continuing absence of MDN on NEE and net primary production (NPP). The study has 2 objectives: 1) to determine whether BIOME-BGC can reasonably simulate the riparian forests of central Idaho. A potentially confounding factor is the complex terrain of the region, particularly regarding soil water: water accumulation in valley bottoms and their riparian zones may lead to discrepancies in soil moisture and productivity of the riparian forest and of the simulations. The model is parameterized using local ecophysiology and site data and validated using field measurements of leaf area and soil moisture. Objective 2): to determine the effects on forest carbon balance and productivity of the presence or ongoing absence of anadromous-fish derived nitrogen. The forest simulation developed in objective 1 is run under two scenarios into the mid-20th century; one continuing without any supplemental nitrogen and one with nitrogen added in levels consistent with estimates of historical deposition by anadromous fish. Both scenarios incorporate warming due to climate change in order to develop a realistic prediction for the two treatments. Results from objective 1 indicate that Biome-BGC can adequately simulate the study site: measured leaf area index (LAI) is not significantly different from maximum LAI predicted by the model. Results from objective 2 indicate that marine-derived nitrogen may increase NEE by up to eight times relative to no nutrient addition, whereas the continued loss of marine nitrogen may lead to a decrease in NEE relative to historical conditions. MDN may become even more important to maintaining a positive carbon balance under a climate warming scenario: model results show a decline in NEE with climate change, which is mitigated by the presence of the added marine nitrogen. Understanding the long-term impacts of marine-derived nutrients to inland Idaho watersheds will help inform forest management and nutrient-loss mitigation efforts.
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Wei Ren; Hanqin Tian; Bo Tao; Art Chappelka; Ge Sun; et al
2011-01-01
Aim We investigated how ozone pollution and climate change/variability have interactively affected net primary productivity (NPP) and net carbon exchange (NCE) across Chinaâs forest ecosystem in the past half century. Location Continental China. Methods Using the dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM) in conjunction with 10-km-resolution gridded historical data sets (...
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Net production of oxygen in the subtropical ocean.
Riser, Stephen C; Johnson, Kenneth S
2008-01-17
The question of whether the plankton communities in low-nutrient regions of the ocean, comprising 80% of the global ocean surface area, are net producers or consumers of oxygen and fixed carbon is a key uncertainty in the global carbon cycle. Direct measurements in bottle experiments indicate net oxygen consumption in the sunlit zone, whereas geochemical evidence suggests that the upper ocean is a net source of oxygen. One possible resolution to this conflict is that primary production in the gyres is episodic and thus difficult to observe: in this model, oligotrophic regions would be net consumers of oxygen during most of the year, but strong, brief events with high primary production rates might produce enough fixed carbon and dissolved oxygen to yield net production as an average over the annual cycle. Here we examine the balance of oxygen production over three years at sites in the North and South Pacific subtropical gyres using the new technique of oxygen sensors deployed on profiling floats. We find that mixing events during early winter homogenize the upper water column and cause low oxygen concentrations. Oxygen then increases below the mixed layer at a nearly constant rate that is similar to independent measures of net community production. This continuous oxygen increase is consistent with an ecosystem that is a net producer of fixed carbon (net autotrophic) throughout the year, with episodic events not required to sustain positive oxygen production.
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Soil carbon sequestration and biochar as negative emission technologies.
Smith, Pete
2016-03-01
Despite 20 years of effort to curb emissions, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions grew faster during the 2000s than in the 1990s, which presents a major challenge for meeting the international goal of limiting warming to <2 °C relative to the preindustrial era. Most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs) to reach the 2 °C target. A recent analysis of NETs, including direct air capture, enhanced weathering, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation/deforestation, showed that all NETs have significant limits to implementation, including economic cost, energy requirements, land use, and water use. In this paper, I assess the potential for negative emissions from soil carbon sequestration and biochar addition to land, and also the potential global impacts on land use, water, nutrients, albedo, energy and cost. Results indicate that soil carbon sequestration and biochar have useful negative emission potential (each 0.7 GtCeq. yr(-1) ) and that they potentially have lower impact on land, water use, nutrients, albedo, energy requirement and cost, so have fewer disadvantages than many NETs. Limitations of soil carbon sequestration as a NET centre around issues of sink saturation and reversibility. Biochar could be implemented in combination with bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Current integrated assessment models do not represent soil carbon sequestration or biochar. Given the negative emission potential of SCS and biochar and their potential advantages compared to other NETs, efforts should be made to include these options within IAMs, so that their potential can be explored further in comparison with other NETs for climate stabilization. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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A. Christopher Oishi; Chelcy F. Miniat; Kimberly A. Novick; Steven T. Brantley; James M. Vose; John T. Walker
2018-01-01
Increasing air temperature is expected to extend growing season length in temperate, broadleaf forests, leading to potential increases in evapotranspiration and net carbon uptake. However, other key processes affecting water and carbon cycles are also highly temperature-dependent. Warmer temperatures may result in higher ecosystem carbon loss through...
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Carbon footprint and ammonia emissions of California beef production systems.
Stackhouse-Lawson, K R; Rotz, C A; Oltjen, J W; Mitloehner, F M
2012-12-01
Beef production is a recognized source of greenhouse gas (GHG) and ammonia (NH(3)) emissions; however, little information exists on the net emissions from beef production systems. A partial life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted using the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) to estimate GHG and NH(3) emissions from representative beef production systems in California. The IFSM is a process-level farm model that simulates crop growth, feed production and use, animal growth, and the return of manure nutrients back to the land to predict the environmental impacts and economics of production systems. Ammonia emissions are determined by summing the emissions from animal housing facilities, manure storage, field applied manure, and direct deposits of manure on pasture and rangeland. All important sources and sinks of methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide are predicted from primary and secondary emission sources. Primary sources include enteric fermentation, manure, cropland used in feed production, and fuel combustion. Secondary emissions occur during the production of resources used on the farm, which include fuel, electricity, machinery, fertilizer, and purchased animals. The carbon footprint is the net exchange of all GHG in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO(2)e) units per kg of HCW produced. Simulated beef production systems included cow-calf, stocker, and feedlot phases for the traditional British beef breeds and calf ranch and feedlot phases for Holstein steers. An evaluation of differing production management strategies resulted in ammonia emissions ranging from 98 ± 13 to 141 ± 27 g/kg HCW and carbon footprints of 10.7 ± 1.4 to 22.6 ± 2.0 kg CO(2)e/kg HCW. Within the British beef production cycle, the cow-calf phase was responsible for 69 to 72% of total GHG emissions with 17 to 27% from feedlot sources. Holstein steers that entered the beef production system as a by-product of dairy production had the lowest carbon footprint because the emissions associated with their mothers were primarily attributed to milk rather than meat production. For the Holstein system, the feedlot phase was responsible for 91% of the total GHG emission, while the calf-ranch phase was responsible for 7% with the remaining 2% from transportation. This simulation study provides baseline emissions data for California beef production systems and indicates where mitigation strategies can be most effective in reducing emissions.
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Jiang, Yueyang; Rastetter, Edward B; Shaver, Gaius R; Rocha, Adrian V; Zhuang, Qianlai; Kwiatkowski, Bonnie L
2017-01-01
To investigate the underlying mechanisms that control long-term recovery of tundra carbon (C) and nutrients after fire, we employed the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to simulate 200-yr post-fire changes in the biogeochemistry of three sites along a burn severity gradient in response to increases in air temperature, CO 2 concentration, nitrogen (N) deposition, and phosphorus (P) weathering rates. The simulations were conducted for severely burned, moderately burned, and unburned arctic tundra. Our simulations indicated that recovery of C balance after fire was mainly determined by the internal redistribution of nutrients among ecosystem components (controlled by air temperature), rather than the supply of nutrients from external sources (e.g., nitrogen deposition and fixation, phosphorus weathering). Increases in air temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration resulted in (1) a net transfer of nutrient from soil organic matter to vegetation and (2) higher C : nutrient ratios in vegetation and soil organic matter. These changes led to gains in vegetation biomass C but net losses in soil organic C stocks. Under a warming climate, nutrients lost in wildfire were difficult to recover because the warming-induced acceleration in nutrient cycles caused further net nutrient loss from the system through leaching. In both burned and unburned tundra, the warming-caused acceleration in nutrient cycles and increases in ecosystem C stocks were eventually constrained by increases in soil C : nutrient ratios, which increased microbial retention of plant-available nutrients in the soil. Accelerated nutrient turnover, loss of C, and increasing soil temperatures will likely result in vegetation changes, which further regulate the long-term biogeochemical succession. Our analysis should help in the assessment of tundra C budgets and of the recovery of biogeochemical function following fire, which is in turn necessary for the maintenance of wildlife habitat and tundra vegetation. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.
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The effects of household management practices on the global warming potential of urban lawns.
Gu, Chuanhui; Crane, John; Hornberger, George; Carrico, Amanda
2015-03-15
Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are an important component of the greenhouse gas (GHG) budget for urban turfgrasses. A biogeochemical model DNDC successfully captured the magnitudes and patterns of N2O emissions observed at an urban turfgrass system at the Richland Creek Watershed in Nashville, TN. The model was then used to study the long-term (i.e. 75 years) impacts of lawn management practice (LMP) on soil organic carbon sequestration rate (dSOC), soil N2O emissions, and net Global Warming Potentials (net GWPs). The model simulated N2O emissions and net GWP from the three management intensity levels over 75 years ranged from 0.75 to 3.57 kg N ha(-1)yr(-1) and 697 to 2443 kg CO2-eq ha(-1)yr(-1), respectively, which suggested that turfgrasses act as a net carbon emitter. Reduction of fertilization is most effective to mitigate the global warming potentials of turfgrasses. Compared to the baseline scenario, halving fertilization rate and clipping recycle as an alternative to synthetic fertilizer can reduce net GWPs by 17% and 12%, respectively. In addition, reducing irrigation and mowing are also effective in lowering net GWPs. The minimum-maintenance LMP without irrigation and fertilization can reduce annual N2O emissions and net GWPs by approximately 53% and 70%, respectively, with the price of gradual depletion of soil organic carbon, when compared to the intensive-maintenance LMP. A lawn age-dependent best management practice is recommended: a high dose fertilizer input at the initial stage of lawn establishment to enhance SOC sequestration, followed by decreasing fertilization rate when the lawn ages to minimize N2O emissions. A minimum-maintained LMP with clipping recycling, and minimum irrigation and mowing, is recommended to mitigate global warming effects from urban turfgrass systems. Among all practices, clipping recycle may be a relatively malleable behavior and, therefore, a good target for interventions seeking to reduce the environmental impacts of lawn management through public education. Our results suggest that a long-term or a chronosequence study of turfgrasses with varying ages is warranted to capture the complete dynamics of contribution of turfgrasses to global warming. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Abdalla, Mohamed; Saunders, Matthew; Hastings, Astley; Williams, Mike; Smith, Pete; Osborne, Bruce; Lanigan, Gary; Jones, Mike B
2013-11-01
In this study, we compared measured and simulated Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) values from three wide spread ecosystems in the southeast of Ireland (forest, arable and grassland), and investigated the suitability of the DNDC (the DeNitrification-DeComposition) model to estimate present and future NEE. Although, the field-DNDC version overestimated NEE at temperatures >5 °C, forest-DNDC under-estimated NEE at temperatures >5 °C. The results suggest that the field/forest DNDC models can successfully estimate changes in seasonal and annual NEE from these ecosystems. Differences in NEE were found to be primarily land cover specific. The annual NEE was similar for the grassland and arable sites, but due to the contribution of exported carbon, the soil carbon increased at the grassland site and decreased at the arable site. The NEE of the forest site was an order of magnitude larger than that of the grassland or arable ecosystems, with large amounts of carbon stored in woody biomass and the soil. The average annual NEE, GPP and Reco values over the measurement period were -904, 2379 and 1475 g C m(-2) (forest plantations), -189, 906 and 715 g C m(-2) (arable systems) and -212, 1653 and 1444 g C m(-2) (grasslands), respectively. The average RMSE values were 3.8 g C m(-2) (forest plantations), 0.12 g C m(-2) (arable systems) and 0.21 g C m(-2) (grasslands). When these models were run with climate change scenarios to 2060, predictions show that all three ecosystems will continue to operate as carbon sinks. Further, climate change may decrease the carbon sink strength in the forest plantations by up to 50%. This study supports the use of the DNDC model as a valid tool to predict the consequences of climate change on NEE from different ecosystems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Turner, D. P.; Ritts, W. D.; Kennedy, R. E.; Gray, A. N.; Yang, Z.
2015-12-01
Spatial variation in climate, soils, disturbance regime, and forest management - as well as temporal variation in weather - all influence terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Spatially-distributed, process-based, carbon cycle simulation models provide a means to integrate information from these various influences to estimate carbon pools and flux over large domains. Here we apply the Biome-BGC model over the 4 state (OR, WA, ID, Western MT) Northwest U.S. region for the interval from 1986-2010. Landsat data was used to characterize disturbances and revealed that the overall disturbance rate on forest land across the region was 0.8 % yr-1, with 49 % as harvests, 28 % as fire, and 23 % as pest/pathogen. A large proportion of the harvested area was on private forestland (62 %) and a large proportion of total burned area was on public forestland (89 %). Net ecosystem production (NEP) for the 2006-2010 interval on forestland was predominantly positive (a carbon sink) throughout the region, with maximum values in the Coast Range, intermediate values in the Cascade Mountains, and relatively low values in the Inland Rocky Mountain ecoregions. Croplands throughout the region had consistently high NEP. Localized negative NEPs were mostly associated with recent disturbances. There was large interannual variation in regional NEP, with notably low values across the region in 2003. In all ecoregions there was a downward trend in NEP over the 25 year study period. The net ecosystem carbon balance was positive in OR, near neutral in ID and WA, and negative (a carbon source) MT. The Northwest region as a whole was a carbon sink in the 2006-2010 period.
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Tropical deforestation and the global carbon budget
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Houghton, R.A.
1996-12-31
The CO{sub 2} concentration of the atmosphere has increased by almost 30% since 1800. This increase is due largely to two factors: the combustion of fossil fuel and deforestation to create croplands and pastures. Deforestation results in a net flux of carbon to the atmospheric because forests contain 20--50 times more carbon per unit area than agricultural lands. In recent decades, the tropics have been the primary region of deforestation.The annual rate of CO{sub 2} released due to tropical deforestation during the early 1990s has been estimated at between 1.2 and 2.3 gigatons C. The range represents uncertainties about bothmore » the rates of deforestation and the amounts of carbon stored in different types of tropical forests at the time of cutting. An evaluation of the role of tropical regions in the global carbon budget must include both the carbon flux to the atmosphere due to deforestation and carbon accumulation, if any, in intact forests. In the early 1990s, the release of CO{sub 2} from tropical deforestation appears to have been mostly offset by CO{sub 2} uptake occurring elsewhere in the tropics, according to an analysis of recent trends in the atmospheric concentrations of O{sub 2} and N{sub 2}. Interannual variations in climate and/or CO{sub 2} fertilization may have been responsible for the CO{sub 2} uptake in intact forests. These mechanisms are consistent with site-specific measurements of net carbon fluxes between tropical forests and the atmosphere, and with regional and global simulations using process-based biogeochemistry models. 86 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs.« less
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Effects of a clear-cut harvest on soil respiration in a jack pine - Lichen woodland
Striegl, Robert G.; Wickland, K.P.
1998-01-01
Quantification of the components of ecosystem respiration is essential to understanding carbon (C) cycling of natural and disturbed landscapes. Soil respiration, which includes autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration from throughout the soil profile, is the second largest flux in the global carbon cycle. We measured soil respiration (soil CO2 emission) at an undisturbed mature jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) stand in Saskatchewan (old jack pine, OJP), and at a formerly continuous portion of the stand that was clear-cut during the previous winter (clear-cut, CC). Tree harvesting reduced soil CO2 emission from ???22.5 to ???9.1 mol CO2??m2 for the 1994 growing season. OJP was a small net sink of atmospheric CO2, while CC was a net source of CO2. Winter emissions were similar at both sites. Reduction of soil respiration was attributed to disruption of the soil surface and to the death of tree roots. Flux simulations for CC and OJP identify 40% of CO2 emission at the undisturbed OJP site as near-surface respiration, 25% as deep-soil respiration, and 35% as tree-root respiration. The near-surface component was larger than the estimated annual C input to soil, suggesting fast C turnover and no net C accumulation in these boreal uplands in 1994.
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Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Asko Noormets; Steven G. McNulty; Erika Cohen; al. et.
2011-01-01
We developed a waterâcentric monthly scale simulation model (WaSSIâC) by integrating empirical water and carbon flux measurements from the FLUXNET network and an existing water supply and demand accounting model (WaSSI). The WaSSIâC model was evaluated with basinâscale evapotranspiration (ET), gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE)...
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Increasing air temperature is expected to extend growing season length in temperate, broadleaf forests, leading to potential increases in evapotranspiration and net carbon uptake. However, other key processes affecting water and carbon cycles are also highly temperature-dependent...
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Reich, Peter B; Falster, Daniel S; Ellsworth, David S; Wright, Ian J; Westoby, Mark; Oleksyn, Jacek; Lee, Tali D
2009-01-01
* Here, we evaluated how increased shading and declining net photosynthetic capacity regulate the decline in net carbon balance with increasing leaf age for 10 Australian woodland species. We also asked whether leaves at the age of their mean life-span have carbon balances that are positive, zero or negative. * The net carbon balances of 2307 leaves on 53 branches of the 10 species were estimated. We assessed three-dimensional architecture, canopy openness, photosynthetic light response functions and dark respiration rate across leaf age sequences on all branches. We used YPLANT to estimate light interception and to model carbon balance along the leaf age sequences. * As leaf age increased to the mean life-span, increasing shading and declining photosynthetic capacity each separately reduced daytime carbon gain by approximately 39% on average across species. Together, they reduced daytime carbon gain by 64% on average across species. * At the age of their mean life-span, almost all leaves had positive daytime carbon balances. These per leaf carbon surpluses were of a similar magnitude to the estimated whole-plant respiratory costs per leaf. Thus, the results suggest that a whole-plant economic framework, including respiratory costs, may be useful in assessing controls on leaf longevity.
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Schwenk, W. Scott; Donovan, Therese; Keeton, William S.; Nunery, Jared S.
2012-01-01
Increasingly, land managers seek ways to manage forests for multiple ecosystem services and functions, yet considerable challenges exist in comparing disparate services and balancing trade-offs among them. We applied multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and forest simulation models to simultaneously consider three objectives: (1) storing carbon, (2) producing timber and wood products, and (3) sustaining biodiversity. We used the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) applied to 42 northern hardwood sites to simulate forest development over 100 years and to estimate carbon storage and timber production. We estimated biodiversity implications with occupancy models for 51 terrestrial bird species that were linked to FVS outputs. We simulated four alternative management prescriptions that spanned a range of harvesting intensities and forest structure retention. We found that silvicultural approaches emphasizing less frequent harvesting and greater structural retention could be expected to achieve the greatest net carbon storage but also produce less timber. More intensive prescriptions would enhance biodiversity because positive responses of early successional species exceeded negative responses of late successional species within the heavily forested study area. The combinations of weights assigned to objectives had a large influence on which prescriptions were scored as optimal. Overall, we found that a diversity of silvicultural approaches is likely to be preferable to any single approach, emphasizing the need for landscape-scale management to provide a full range of ecosystem goods and services. Our analytical framework that combined MCDA with forest simulation modeling was a powerful tool in understanding trade-offs among management objectives and how they can be simultaneously accommodated.
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Does peatland restoration make a difference to the millennial scale carbon balance?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Quillet, Anne; Roulet, Nigel; Wu, Jianghua
2017-04-01
Millennial peatland carbon balance is of crucial importance to assess the past and future forcing of peatlands carbon sequestration on climate. However drainage and exploitation of peatlands over the last and current centuries greatly affect the carbon balance of 25% of the global peatlands (Parish et al. 2008). Moreover, the impact of drainage is likely to remain for unforeseeable time, modifying the hydrology and the ecology of peatlands. The aim of this study is to assess the influence on the long-term carbon balance of restoration practices over abandonment on vacuum-extracted peatlands. We modified the Holocene Peat Model (Frolking et al. 2010) to simulate peat extraction as well as different post-extraction management strategies: abandonment, drainage blocking and restoration. Simulation results enable the comparison of the response of the system to different management strategies. The carbon balance is estimated for the millennia following extraction for different management strategies and different climate conditions. The difference between restoration practices and abandonment allows the assessment of the net carbon gain associated with restoration. Although it is expected that successful restoration practices are beneficial to the carbon budget of the ecosystem, it will take millennia to restore what has been extracted. In cases where the site is left abandoned, it is estimated that peat would degrade within centuries. The management strategies and the duration of the period of latency between extraction and restoration are key factors controlling the magnitude of the future carbon loss or gain of a peatland.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chang, J. F.; Viovy, N.; Vuichard, N.; Ciais, P.; Wang, T.; Cozic, A.; Lardy, R.; Graux, A.-I.; Klumpp, K.; Martin, R.; Soussana, J.-F.
2013-12-01
This study describes how management of grasslands is included in the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) process-based ecosystem model designed for large-scale applications, and how management affects modeled grassland-atmosphere CO2 fluxes. The new model, ORCHIDEE-GM (grassland management) is enabled with a management module inspired from a grassland model (PaSim, version 5.0), with two grassland management practices being considered, cutting and grazing. The evaluation of the results from ORCHIDEE compared with those of ORCHIDEE-GM at 11 European sites, equipped with eddy covariance and biometric measurements, shows that ORCHIDEE-GM can realistically capture the cut-induced seasonal variation in biometric variables (LAI: leaf area index; AGB: aboveground biomass) and in CO2 fluxes (GPP: gross primary productivity; TER: total ecosystem respiration; and NEE: net ecosystem exchange). However, improvements at grazing sites are only marginal in ORCHIDEE-GM due to the difficulty in accounting for continuous grazing disturbance and its induced complex animal-vegetation interactions. Both NEE and GPP on monthly to annual timescales can be better simulated in ORCHIDEE-GM than in ORCHIDEE without management. For annual CO2 fluxes, the NEE bias and RMSE (root mean square error) in ORCHIDEE-GM are reduced by 53% and 20%, respectively, compared to ORCHIDEE. ORCHIDEE-GM is capable of modeling the net carbon balance (NBP) of managed temperate grasslands (37 ± 30 gC m-2 yr-1 (P < 0.01) over the 11 sites) because the management module contains provisions to simulate the carbon fluxes of forage yield, herbage consumption, animal respiration and methane emissions.
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The imprint of surface fluxes and transport on variations in total column carbon dioxide
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Keppel-Aleks, G.; Wennberg, P. O.; Washenfelder, R. A.; Wunch, D.; Schneider, T.; Toon, G. C.; Andres, R. J.; Blavier, J.-F.; Connor, B.; Davis, K. J.; Desai, A. R.; Messerschmidt, J.; Notholt, J.; Roehl, C. M.; Sherlock, V.; Stephens, B. B.; Vay, S. A.; Wofsy, S. C.
2011-07-01
New observations of the vertically integrated CO2 mixing ratio, ⟨CO2⟩, from ground-based remote sensing show that variations in ⟨CO2⟩ are primarily determined by large-scale flux patterns. They therefore provide fundamentally different information than observations made within the boundary layer, which reflect the combined influence of large scale and local fluxes. Observations of both ⟨CO2⟩ and CO2 concentrations in the free troposphere show that large-scale spatial gradients induce synoptic-scale temporal variations in ⟨CO2⟩ in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes through horizontal advection. Rather than obscure the signature of surface fluxes on atmospheric CO2, these synoptic-scale variations provide useful information that can be used to reveal the meridional flux distribution. We estimate the meridional gradient in ⟨CO2⟩ from covariations in ⟨CO2⟩ and potential temperature, θ, a dynamical tracer, on synoptic timescales to evaluate surface flux estimates commonly used in carbon cycle models. We find that Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) biospheric fluxes underestimate both the ⟨CO2⟩ seasonal cycle amplitude throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes as well as the meridional gradient during the growing season. Simulations using CASA net ecosystem exchange (NEE) with increased and phase-shifted boreal fluxes better reflect the observations. Our simulations suggest that boreal growing season NEE (between 45-65° N) is underestimated by ~40 % in CASA. We describe the implications for this large seasonal exchange on inference of the net Northern Hemisphere terrestrial carbon sink.
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The changing global carbon cycle: linking local plant-soil carbon dynamics to global consequences
F. Stuart Chapin; Jack McFarland; A. David McGuire; Eugenie S. Euskirchen; Roger W. Ruess; Knut Kielland
2009-01-01
Most current climate-carbon cycle models that include the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle are based on a model developed 40 years ago by Woodwell & Whittaker (1968) and omit advances in biogeochemical understanding since that time. Their model treats net C emissions from ecosystems as the balance between net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (HR,...
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Assessing net carbon sequestration on urban and community forests of northern New England, USA
Daolan Zheng; Mark J. Ducey; Linda S. Heath
2013-01-01
Urban and community forests play an important role in the overall carbon budget of the USA. Accurately quantifying carbon sequestration by these forests can provide insight for strategic planning to mitigate greenhouse gas effects on climate change. This study provides a new methodology to estimate net forest carbon sequestration (FCS) in urban and community lands of...
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Liu, Mingkai; Meng, Qinghua; Yang, Zhiyuan; Zhao, Xinsheng; Liu, Tianxi
2018-05-15
An integrated carbon-sulfur (CSG/PC) membrane with dual shuttle-inhibiting layers was prepared by inserting graphene "nets" and a porous carbon (PC) skin, and the membrane achieved an extraordinary cycling stability up to 1000 cycles with an average Coulombic efficiency of ∼100%.
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Dargaville, R.J.; Heimann, Martin; McGuire, A.D.; Prentice, I.C.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Joos, F.; Clein, Joy S.; Esser, G.; Foley, J.; Kaplan, J.; Meier, R.A.; Melillo, J.M.; Moore, B.; Ramankutty, N.; Reichenau, T.; Schloss, A.; Sitch, S.; Tian, H.; Williams, L.J.; Wittenberg, U.
2002-01-01
An atmospheric transport model and observations of atmospheric CO2 are used to evaluate the performance of four Terrestrial Carbon Models (TCMs) in simulating the seasonal dynamics and interannual variability of atmospheric CO2 between 1980 and 1991. The TCMs were forced with time varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and land use to simulate the net exchange of carbon between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The monthly surface CO2 fluxes from the TCMs were used to drive the Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry and the simulated seasonal cycles and concentration anomalies are compared with observations from several stations in the CMDL network. The TCMs underestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and tend to simulate too early an uptake of CO2 during the spring by approximately one to two months. The model fluxes show an increase in amplitude as a result of land-use change, but that pattern is not so evident in the simulated atmospheric amplitudes, and the different models suggest different causes for the amplitude increase (i.e., CO2 fertilization, climate variability or land use change). The comparison of the modeled concentration anomalies with the observed anomalies indicates that either the TCMs underestimate interannual variability in the exchange of CO2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere, or that either the variability in the ocean fluxes or the atmospheric transport may be key factors in the atmospheric interannual variability.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Philip, S.; Johnson, M. S.; Potter, C. S.; Genovese, V. B.
2016-12-01
Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emission sources and biospheric sources/sinks. Global biospheric fluxes of CO2 are controlled by complex processes facilitating the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. These processes which play a key role in these terrestrial ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchanges are currently not fully understood, resulting in large uncertainties in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Current models with these inherent deficiencies have difficulties simulating the global carbon cycle with high accuracy. We are developing a new modeling platform, GEOS-Chem-CASA by integrating the year-specific NASA-CASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration - Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) biosphere model with the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observation System-Chemistry) chemical transport model to improve the simulation of atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange. We use NASA-CASA to explicitly represent the exchange of CO2 between terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere by replacing the baseline GEOS-Chem land net CO2 flux and forest biomass burning CO2 emissions. We will present the estimation and evaluation of these "bottom-up" land CO2 fluxes, simulated atmospheric mixing ratios, and forest disturbance changes over the last decade. In addition, we will present our initial comparison of atmospheric column-mean dry air mole fraction of CO2 predicted by the model and those retrieved from NASA's OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) satellite instrument and model-predicted surface CO2 mixing ratios with global in situ observations. This evaluation is the first step necessary for our future work planned to constrain the estimates of biospheric carbon fluxes through "top-down" inverse modeling, which will improve our understanding of the processes controlling atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem greenhouse gas exchanges, especially over regions which lack in situ observations.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Philip, Sajeev; Johnson, Matthew S.; Potter, Christopher S.; Genovese, Vanessa
2016-01-01
Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emission sources and biospheric sources/sinks. Global biospheric fluxes of CO2 are controlled by complex processes facilitating the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. These processes which play a key role in these terrestrial ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchanges are currently not fully understood, resulting in large uncertainties in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Current models with these inherent deficiencies have difficulties simulating the global carbon cycle with high accuracy. We are developing a new modeling platform, GEOS-Chem-CASA by integrating the year-specific NASA-CASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration - Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) biosphere model with the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observation System-Chemistry) chemical transport model to improve the simulation of atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange. We use NASA-CASA to explicitly represent the exchange of CO2 between terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere by replacing the baseline GEOS-Chem land net CO2 flux and forest biomass burning CO2 emissions. We will present the estimation and evaluation of these "bottom-up" land CO2 fluxes, simulated atmospheric mixing ratios, and forest disturbance changes over the last decade. In addition, we will present our initial comparison of atmospheric column-mean dry air mole fraction of CO2 predicted by the model and those retrieved from NASA's OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) satellite instrument and model-predicted surface CO2 mixing ratios with global in situ observations. This evaluation is the first step necessary for our future work planned to constrain the estimates of biospheric carbon fluxes through "top-down" inverse modeling, which will improve our understanding of the processes controlling atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem greenhouse gas exchanges, especially over regions which lack in situ observations.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ito, Akihiko; Inatomi, Motoko; Huntzinger, Deborah N.
The seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of the atmosphere–ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO 2) exchange rate is a useful metric of the responsiveness of the terrestrial biosphere to environmental variations. It is unclear, however, what underlying mechanisms are responsible for the observed increasing trend of SCA in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Using output data from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we investigated how well the SCA of atmosphere–ecosystem CO 2 exchange was simulated with 15 contemporary terrestrial ecosystem models during the period 1901–2010. Also, we made attempt to evaluate the contributions of potential mechanisms such as atmospheric CO 2, climate, land-use,more » and nitrogen deposition, through factorial experiments using different combinations of forcing data. Under contemporary conditions, the simulated global-scale SCA of the cumulative net ecosystem carbon flux of most models was comparable in magnitude with the SCA of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Results from factorial simulation experiments showed that elevated atmospheric CO 2 exerted a strong influence on the seasonality amplification. When the model considered not only climate change but also land-use and atmospheric CO 2 changes, the majority of the models showed amplification trends of the SCAs of photosynthesis, respiration, and net ecosystem production (+0.19 % to +0.50 % yr -1). In the case of land-use change, it was difficult to separate the contribution of agricultural management to SCA because of inadequacies in both the data and models. The simulated amplification of SCA was approximately consistent with the observational evidence of the SCA in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Large inter-model differences remained, however, in the simulated global tendencies and spatial patterns of CO 2 exchanges. Further studies are required to identify a consistent explanation for the simulated and observed amplification trends, including their underlying mechanisms. Nevertheless, this study implied that monitoring of ecosystem seasonality would provide useful insights concerning ecosystem dynamics.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ito, Akihiko; Inatomi, Motoko; Huntzinger, Deborah N.
The seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of the atmosphere–ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO 2) exchange rate is a useful metric of the responsiveness of the terrestrial biosphere to environmental variations. It is unclear, however, what underlying mechanisms are responsible for the observed increasing trend of SCA in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Using output data from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we investigated how well the SCA of atmosphere–ecosystem CO 2 exchange was simulated with 15 contemporary terrestrial ecosystem models during the period 1901–2010. Also, we made attempt to evaluate the contributions of potential mechanisms such as atmospheric CO 2, climate, land-use,more » and nitrogen deposition, through factorial experiments using different combinations of forcing data. Under contemporary conditions, the simulated global-scale SCA of the cumulative net ecosystem carbon flux of most models was comparable in magnitude with the SCA of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Results from factorial simulation experiments showed that elevated atmospheric CO 2 exerted a strong influence on the seasonality amplification. When the model considered not only climate change but also land-use and atmospheric CO 2 changes, the majority of the models showed amplification trends of the SCAs of photosynthesis, respiration, and net ecosystem production (+0.19 % to +0.50 % yr –1). In the case of land-use change, it was difficult to separate the contribution of agricultural management to SCA because of inadequacies in both the data and models. The simulated amplification of SCA was approximately consistent with the observational evidence of the SCA in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Large inter-model differences remained, however, in the simulated global tendencies and spatial patterns of CO 2 exchanges. Further studies are required to identify a consistent explanation for the simulated and observed amplification trends, including their underlying mechanisms. Furthermore, this study implied that monitoring of ecosystem seasonality would provide useful insights concerning ecosystem dynamics.« less
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Ito, Akihiko; Inatomi, Motoko; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; ...
2016-05-12
The seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of the atmosphere–ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO 2) exchange rate is a useful metric of the responsiveness of the terrestrial biosphere to environmental variations. It is unclear, however, what underlying mechanisms are responsible for the observed increasing trend of SCA in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Using output data from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we investigated how well the SCA of atmosphere–ecosystem CO 2 exchange was simulated with 15 contemporary terrestrial ecosystem models during the period 1901–2010. Also, we made attempt to evaluate the contributions of potential mechanisms such as atmospheric CO 2, climate, land-use,more » and nitrogen deposition, through factorial experiments using different combinations of forcing data. Under contemporary conditions, the simulated global-scale SCA of the cumulative net ecosystem carbon flux of most models was comparable in magnitude with the SCA of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Results from factorial simulation experiments showed that elevated atmospheric CO 2 exerted a strong influence on the seasonality amplification. When the model considered not only climate change but also land-use and atmospheric CO 2 changes, the majority of the models showed amplification trends of the SCAs of photosynthesis, respiration, and net ecosystem production (+0.19 % to +0.50 % yr –1). In the case of land-use change, it was difficult to separate the contribution of agricultural management to SCA because of inadequacies in both the data and models. The simulated amplification of SCA was approximately consistent with the observational evidence of the SCA in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Large inter-model differences remained, however, in the simulated global tendencies and spatial patterns of CO 2 exchanges. Further studies are required to identify a consistent explanation for the simulated and observed amplification trends, including their underlying mechanisms. Furthermore, this study implied that monitoring of ecosystem seasonality would provide useful insights concerning ecosystem dynamics.« less
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Safta, C.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Sargsyan, Khachik; ...
2015-07-01
In this paper we propose a probabilistic framework for an uncertainty quantification (UQ) study of a carbon cycle model and focus on the comparison between steady-state and transient simulation setups. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study indicates the parameters and parameter couplings that are important at different times of the year for quantities of interest (QoIs) obtained with the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model. We then employ a Bayesian approach and a statistical model error term to calibrate the parameters of DALEC using net ecosystem exchange (NEE) observations at the Harvard Forest site. The calibration results are employedmore » in the second part of the paper to assess the predictive skill of the model via posterior predictive checks.« less
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Simulations of carbon sputtering in fusion reactor divertor plates
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Marian, J; Zepeda-Ruiz, L A; Gilmer, G H
2005-10-03
The interaction of edge plasma with material surfaces raises key issues for the viability of the International Thermonuclear Reactor (ITER) and future fusion reactors, including heat-flux limits, net material erosion, and impurity production. After exposure of the graphite divertor plate to the plasma in a fusion device, an amorphous C/H layer forms. This layer contains 20-30 atomic percent D/T bonded to C. Subsequent D/T impingement on this layer produces a variety of hydrocarbons that are sputtered back into the sheath region. We present molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of D/T impacts on amorphous carbon layer as a function of ion energymore » and orientation, using the AIREBO potential. In particular, energies are varied between 10 and 150 eV to transition from chemical to physical sputtering. These results are used to quantify yield, hydrocarbon composition and eventual plasma contamination.« less
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Acclimation of Plant Populations to Shade: Photosynthesis, Respiration, and Carbon Use Efficiency
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Frantz, Jonathan M.; Bugbee, Bruce
2005-01-01
Cloudy days cause an abrupt reduction in daily photosynthetic photon flux (PPF), but we have a poor understanding of how plants acclimate to this change. We used a unique lo-chamber, steady-state, gas-exchange system to continuously measure daily photosynthesis and night respiration of populations of a starch accumulator [tomato (Lycopersicone scukntum Mill. cv. Micro-Tina)] and a sucrose accumulator [lettuce (Latuca sativa L ev. Grand Rapids)] over 42 days. AI1 measurements were done at elevated CO2, (1200micr-/mol) avoid any CO2 limitations and included both shoots and roots. We integrated photosynthesis and respiration measurements separately to determine daily net carbon gain and carbon use efficiency (CUE) as the ratio of daily net C gain to total day-time C fixed over the 42-day period. After 16 to 20 days of growth in constant PPF, plants in some chambers were subjected to an abrupt PPF reduction to simulate shade or a series of cloudy days. The immediate effect and the long term acclimation rate w'ere assessed from canopy quantum yield and carbon use efficiency. The effect of shade on carbon use efficiency and acclimation was much slower than predicted by widely used growth models. It took 12 days for tomato populations to recover their original CUE and lettuce CUE never completely acclimated. Tomatoes, the starch accumulator, acclimated to low light more rapidly than lettuce, the sucrose accumulator. Plant growth models should be modified to include the photosynthesis/respiration imbalance and resulting inefficiency of carbon gain associated with changing PIT conditions on cloudy days.
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Carbon dioxide sources from Alaska driven by increasing early winter respiration from Arctic tundra
Lindaas, Jakob; Benmergui, Joshua; Luus, Kristina A.; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Daube, Bruce C.; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Karion, Anna; Miller, John B.; Miller, Scot M.; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Randerson, James T.; Sweeney, Colm; Thoning, Kirk; Veraverbeke, Sander; Miller, Charles E.; Wofsy, Steven C.
2017-01-01
High-latitude ecosystems have the capacity to release large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere in response to increasing temperatures, representing a potentially significant positive feedback within the climate system. Here, we combine aircraft and tower observations of atmospheric CO2 with remote sensing data and meteorological products to derive temporally and spatially resolved year-round CO2 fluxes across Alaska during 2012–2014. We find that tundra ecosystems were a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere annually, with especially high rates of respiration during early winter (October through December). Long-term records at Barrow, AK, suggest that CO2 emission rates from North Slope tundra have increased during the October through December period by 73% ± 11% since 1975, and are correlated with rising summer temperatures. Together, these results imply increasing early winter respiration and net annual emission of CO2 in Alaska, in response to climate warming. Our results provide evidence that the decadal-scale increase in the amplitude of the CO2 seasonal cycle may be linked with increasing biogenic emissions in the Arctic, following the growing season. Early winter respiration was not well simulated by the Earth System Models used to forecast future carbon fluxes in recent climate assessments. Therefore, these assessments may underestimate the carbon release from Arctic soils in response to a warming climate. PMID:28484001
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Carbon dioxide sources from Alaska driven by increasing early winter respiration from Arctic tundra.
Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Benmergui, Joshua; Luus, Kristina A; Chang, Rachel Y-W; Daube, Bruce C; Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Henderson, John M; Karion, Anna; Miller, John B; Miller, Scot M; Parazoo, Nicholas C; Randerson, James T; Sweeney, Colm; Tans, Pieter; Thoning, Kirk; Veraverbeke, Sander; Miller, Charles E; Wofsy, Steven C
2017-05-23
High-latitude ecosystems have the capacity to release large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to the atmosphere in response to increasing temperatures, representing a potentially significant positive feedback within the climate system. Here, we combine aircraft and tower observations of atmospheric CO 2 with remote sensing data and meteorological products to derive temporally and spatially resolved year-round CO 2 fluxes across Alaska during 2012-2014. We find that tundra ecosystems were a net source of CO 2 to the atmosphere annually, with especially high rates of respiration during early winter (October through December). Long-term records at Barrow, AK, suggest that CO 2 emission rates from North Slope tundra have increased during the October through December period by 73% ± 11% since 1975, and are correlated with rising summer temperatures. Together, these results imply increasing early winter respiration and net annual emission of CO 2 in Alaska, in response to climate warming. Our results provide evidence that the decadal-scale increase in the amplitude of the CO 2 seasonal cycle may be linked with increasing biogenic emissions in the Arctic, following the growing season. Early winter respiration was not well simulated by the Earth System Models used to forecast future carbon fluxes in recent climate assessments. Therefore, these assessments may underestimate the carbon release from Arctic soils in response to a warming climate.
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Carbon dioxide sources from Alaska driven by increasing early winter respiration from Arctic tundra
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Benmergui, Joshua; Luus, Kristina A.; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Daube, Bruce C.; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Henderson, John M.; Karion, Anna; Miller, John B.; Miller, Scot M.; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Randerson, James T.; Sweeney, Colm; Tans, Pieter; Thoning, Kirk; Veraverbeke, Sander; Miller, Charles E.; Wofsy, Steven C.
2017-05-01
High-latitude ecosystems have the capacity to release large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere in response to increasing temperatures, representing a potentially significant positive feedback within the climate system. Here, we combine aircraft and tower observations of atmospheric CO2 with remote sensing data and meteorological products to derive temporally and spatially resolved year-round CO2 fluxes across Alaska during 2012-2014. We find that tundra ecosystems were a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere annually, with especially high rates of respiration during early winter (October through December). Long-term records at Barrow, AK, suggest that CO2 emission rates from North Slope tundra have increased during the October through December period by 73% ± 11% since 1975, and are correlated with rising summer temperatures. Together, these results imply increasing early winter respiration and net annual emission of CO2 in Alaska, in response to climate warming. Our results provide evidence that the decadal-scale increase in the amplitude of the CO2 seasonal cycle may be linked with increasing biogenic emissions in the Arctic, following the growing season. Early winter respiration was not well simulated by the Earth System Models used to forecast future carbon fluxes in recent climate assessments. Therefore, these assessments may underestimate the carbon release from Arctic soils in response to a warming climate.
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Sierra, Carlos A; Loescher, Henry W; Harmon, Mark E; Richardson, Andrew D; Hollinger, David Y; Perakis, Steven S
2009-10-01
Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed approximately 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results also show that the variation of annual carbon fluxes poses an important challenge in our ability to determine whether an ecosystem is a source, a sink, or is neutral in regard to CO2 at longer timescales. In simulations where climate change negatively affected ecosystem carbon stores, there was a 20% chance of committing Type II error, even with 20 years of sequential data.
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Weinke, Anthony D; Kendall, Scott T; Kroll, Daniel J; Strickler, Eric A; Weinert, Maggie E; Holcomb, Thomas M; Defore, Angela A; Dila, Deborah K; Snider, Michael J; Gereaux, Leon C; Biddanda, Bopaiah A
2014-11-01
During the summers of 2002-2013, we measured rates of carbon metabolism in surface waters of six sites across a land-to-lake gradient from the upstream end of drowned river-mouth Muskegon Lake (ML) (freshwater estuary) to 19 km offshore in Lake Michigan (LM) (a Great Lake). Despite considerable inter-year variability, the average rates of gross production (GP), respiration (R) and net production (NP) across ML (604 ± 58, 222 ± 22 and 381 ± 52 µg C L -1 day -1 , respectively) decreased steeply in the furthest offshore LM site (22 ± 3, 55 ± 17 and -33 ± 15 µg C L -1 day -1 , respectively). Along this land-to-lake gradient, GP decreased by 96 ± 1%, whereas R only decreased by 75 ± 9%, variably influencing the carbon balance along this coastal zone. All ML sites were consistently net autotrophic (mean GP:R = 2.7), while the furthest offshore LM site was net heterotrophic (mean GP:R = 0.4). Our study suggests that pelagic waters of this Great Lakes coastal estuary are net carbon sinks that transition into net carbon sources offshore. Reactive and dynamic estuarine coastal zones everywhere may contribute similarly to regional and global carbon cycles.
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Li, Longhui; Chen, Xi; van der Tol, Christiaan; Luo, Geping; Su, Zhongbo
2014-01-01
Central Asia is covered by vast desert ecosystems, and the majority of these ecosystems have alkaline soils. Their contribution to global net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) is of significance simply because of their immense spatial extent. Some of the latest research reported considerable abiotic CO2 absorption by alkaline soil, but the rate of CO2 absorption has been questioned by peer communities. To investigate the issue of carbon cycle in Central Asian desert ecosystems with alkaline soils, we have measured the NEE using eddy covariance (EC) method at two alkaline sites during growing season in Kazakhstan. The diurnal course of mean monthly NEE followed a clear sinusoidal pattern during growing season at both sites. Both sites showed significant net carbon uptake during daytime on sunny days with high photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) but net carbon loss at nighttime and on cloudy and rainy days. NEE has strong dependency on PAR and the response of NEE to precipitation resulted in an initial and significant carbon release to the atmosphere, similar to other ecosystems. These findings indicate that biotic processes dominated the carbon processes, and the contribution of abiotic carbon process to net ecosystem CO2 exchange may be trivial in alkaline soil desert ecosystems over Central Asia.
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Growing season net ecosystem CO2 exchange of two desert ecosystems with alkaline soils in Kazakhstan
Li, Longhui; Chen, Xi; van der Tol, Christiaan; Luo, Geping; Su, Zhongbo
2014-01-01
Central Asia is covered by vast desert ecosystems, and the majority of these ecosystems have alkaline soils. Their contribution to global net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) is of significance simply because of their immense spatial extent. Some of the latest research reported considerable abiotic CO2 absorption by alkaline soil, but the rate of CO2 absorption has been questioned by peer communities. To investigate the issue of carbon cycle in Central Asian desert ecosystems with alkaline soils, we have measured the NEE using eddy covariance (EC) method at two alkaline sites during growing season in Kazakhstan. The diurnal course of mean monthly NEE followed a clear sinusoidal pattern during growing season at both sites. Both sites showed significant net carbon uptake during daytime on sunny days with high photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) but net carbon loss at nighttime and on cloudy and rainy days. NEE has strong dependency on PAR and the response of NEE to precipitation resulted in an initial and significant carbon release to the atmosphere, similar to other ecosystems. These findings indicate that biotic processes dominated the carbon processes, and the contribution of abiotic carbon process to net ecosystem CO2 exchange may be trivial in alkaline soil desert ecosystems over Central Asia. PMID:24455157
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Changes in the Carbon Cycle of Amazon Ecosystems During the 2010 Drought
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Potter, Christophera; Klooster, Steven; Hiatt, Cyrus; Genovese, Vanessa; Castilla-Rubino, Juan Carlos
2011-01-01
Satellite remote sensing was combined with the NASA-CASA carbon cycle simulation model to evaluate the impact of the 2010 drought (July through September) throughout tropical South America. Results indicated that net primary production (NPP) in Amazon forest areas declined by an average of 7% in 2010 compared to 2008. This represented a loss of vegetation CO2 uptake and potential Amazon rainforest growth of nearly 0.5 Pg C in 2010. The largest overall decline in ecosystem carbon gains by land cover type was predicted for closed broadleaf forest areas of the Amazon River basin, including a large fraction of regularly flooded forest areas. Model results support the hypothesis that soil and dead wood carbon decomposition fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere were elevated during the drought period of 2010 in periodically flooded forest areas, compared to forests outside the main river floodplains.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Churkina, G.; Zaehle, S.; Hughes, J.; Viovy, N.; Chen, Y.; Jung, M.; Heumann, B. W.; Ramankutty, N.; Rödenbeck, C.; Heimann, M.; Jones, C.
2010-03-01
European ecosystems are thought to uptake significant amounts of carbon, but neither the rate nor the contributions of the underlying processes are well known. In the second half of the 20th century, carbon dioxide concentrations have risen by more than 100 ppm, atmospheric nitrogen deposition has more than doubled, and European mean temperatures were increasing by 0.02 °C per year. The extents of forest and grasslands have increase with the respective rates of 5800 km2 yr-1 and 1100 km2 yr-1 as agricultural land has been abandoned at a rate of 7000 km2 yr-1. In this study, we analyze the responses of European land ecosystems to the aforementioned environmental changes using results from four process-based ecosystem models: BIOME-BGC, JULES, ORCHIDEE, and O-CN. All four models suggest that European terrestrial ecosystems sequester carbon at a rate of 100 TgC yr-1 (1980-2007 mean) with strong interannual variability (± 85 TgC yr-1) and a substantial inter-model uncertainty (± 45 TgC yr-1). Decadal budgets suggest that there has been a slight increase in terrestrial net carbon storage from 85 TgC yr-1 in 1980-1989 to 114 TgC yr-1 in 2000-2007. The physiological effect of rising CO2 in combination with nitrogen deposition and forest re-growth have been identified as the important explanatory factors for this net carbon storage. Changes in the growth of woody vegetation are an important contributor to the European carbon sink. Simulated ecosystem responses were more consistent for the two models accounting for terrestrial carbon-nitrogen dynamics than for the two models which only accounted for carbon cycling and the effects of land cover change. Studies of the interactions of carbon-nitrogen dynamics with land use changes are needed to further improve the quantitative understanding of the driving forces of the European land carbon balance.
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The influence of non-CO2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Arora, Vivek K.; Lee, Warren G.; Zickfeld, Kirsten
2018-03-01
Carbon budgets provide a useful tool for policymakers to help meet the global climate targets, as they specify total allowable carbon emissions consistent with limiting warming to a given temperature threshold. Non-CO2 forcings have a net warming effect in the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, leading to reductions in remaining carbon budgets based on CO2 forcing alone. Carbon budgets consistent with limiting warming to below 2.0 °C, with and without accounting for the effects of non-CO2 forcings, were assessed in inconsistent ways by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), making the effects of non-CO2 forcings hard to identify. Here we use a consistent approach to compare 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C carbon budgets with and without accounting for the effects of non-CO2 forcings, using CO2-only and RCP8.5 simulations. The median allowable carbon budgets for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming are reduced by 257 PgC and 418 PgC, respectively, and the uncertainty ranges on the budgets are reduced by more than a factor of two when accounting for the net warming effects of non-CO2 forcings. While our overall results are consistent with IPCC, we use a more robust methodology, and explain the narrower uncertainty ranges of carbon budgets when non-CO2 forcings are included. We demonstrate that most of the reduction in carbon budgets is a result of the direct warming effect of the non-CO2 forcings, with a secondary contribution from the influence of the non-CO2 forcings on the carbon cycle. Such carbon budgets are expected to play an increasingly important role in climate change mitigation, thus understanding the influence of non-CO2 forcings on these budgets and their uncertainties is critical.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sleeter, B. M.; Rayfield, B.; Liu, J.; Sherba, J.; Daniel, C.; Frid, L.; Wilson, T. S.; Zhu, Z.
2016-12-01
Since 1970, the combined changes in land use, land management, climate, and natural disturbances have dramatically altered land cover in the United States, resulting in the potential for significant changes in terrestrial carbon storage and flux between ecosystems and the atmosphere. Processes including urbanization, agricultural expansion and contraction, and forest management have had impacts - both positive and negative - on the amount of natural vegetation, the age structure of forests, and the amount of impervious cover. Anthropogenic change coupled with climate-driven changes in natural disturbance regimes, particularly the frequency and severity of wildfire, together determine the spatio-temporal patterns of land change and contribute to changing ecosystem carbon dynamics. Quantifying this effect and its associated uncertainties is fundamental to developing a rigorous and transparent carbon monitoring and assessment programs. However, large-scale systematic inventories of historical land change and their associated uncertainties are sparse. To address this need, we present a newly developed modeling framework, the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS). The LUCAS model integrates readily available high quality, empirical land-change data into a stochastic space-time simulation model representing land change feedbacks on carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We applied the LUCAS model to estimate regional scale changes in carbon storage, atmospheric flux, and net biome production in 84 ecological regions of the conterminous United States for the period 1970-2015. The model was parameterized using a newly available set of high resolution (30 m) land-change data, compiled from Landsat remote sensing imagery, including estimates of uncertainty. Carbon flux parameters for each ecological region were derived from the IBIS dynamic global vegetation model with full carbon cycle accounting. This paper presents our initial findings describing regional and temporal changes and variability in carbon storage and flux resulting from land use change and disturbance between 1973 and 2015. Additionally, based on stochastic simulations we quantify and present key sources of uncertainty in the estimation of terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lovecchio, Elisa; Gruber, Nicolas; Münnich, Matthias; Lachkar, Zouhair
2017-07-01
A compilation of measurements of net community production (NCP) in the upper waters of the eastern subtropical North Atlantic had suggested net heterotrophic conditions, purportedly supported by the lateral export of organic carbon from the adjacent, highly productive Canary Upwelling System (CanUS). Here, we quantify and assess this lateral export using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) coupled to a nutrient, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus (NPZD) ecosystem model. We employ a new Atlantic telescopic grid with a strong refinement towards the northwestern African shelf to combine an eddy-resolving resolution in the CanUS with a full Atlantic basin perspective. Our climatologically forced simulation reveals an intense offshore flux of organic carbon that transports about 19 Tg C yr-1 away from the nearshore 100 km over the whole CanUS, amounting to more than a third of the NCP in this region. The offshore transport extends beyond 1500 km into the subtropical North Atlantic, adding organic carbon along the way to the upper 100 m at rates of between 8 and 34 % of the alongshore average NCP as a function of offshore distance. Although the divergence of this lateral export of organic carbon enhances local respiration, the upper 100 m layer in our model remains net autotrophic in the entire eastern subtropical North Atlantic. However, the vertical export of this organic carbon and its subsequent remineralization at depth makes the vertically integrated NCP strongly negative throughout this region, with the exception of a narrow band along the northwestern African shelf. The magnitude and efficiency of the lateral export varies substantially between the different subregions. In particular, the central coast near Cape Blanc is particularly efficient in collecting organic carbon on the shelf and subsequently transporting it offshore. In this central subregion, the offshore transport adds as much organic carbon as nearly 60 % of the local NCP to the upper 100 m, giving rise to a sharp peak of offshore respiration that extends to the middle of the gyre. Our modeled offshore transport of organic carbon is likely a lower-bound estimate due to our lack of full consideration of the contribution of dissolved organic carbon and that of particulate organic carbon stemming from the resuspension of sediments. But even in the absence of these contributions, our results emphasize the fundamental role of the lateral redistribution of the organic carbon for the maintenance of the heterotrophic activity in the open sea.
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Carrasco, L R; Papworth, S K
2014-12-15
Deforestation in tropical regions causes 15% of global anthropogenic carbon emissions and reduces the mitigation potential of carbon sequestration services. A global market failure occurs as the value of many ecosystem services provided by forests is not recognised by the markets. Identifying the contribution of individual countries to tropical carbon stocks and sequestration might help identify responsibilities and facilitate debate towards the correction of the market failure through international payments for ecosystem services. We compare and rank tropical countries' contributions by estimating carbon sequestration services vs. emissions disservices. The annual value of tropical carbon sequestration services in 2010 from 88 tropical countries was estimated to range from $2.8 to $30.7 billion, using market and social prices of carbon respectively. Democratic Republic of Congo, India and Sudan contribute the highest net carbon sequestration, whereas Brazil, Nigeria and Indonesia are the highest net emitters. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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North America's net terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990-2009
A.W. King; R.J. Andres; K J. Davis; M. Hafer; D.J. Hayes; D.N. Huntzinger; B. de Jong; W.A. Kurz; A.D. McGuire; R. Vargas; Y. Wei; T.O. West; C.W. Woodall
2015-01-01
Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ueyama, M.; Ichii, K.; Hirata, R.; Takagi, K.; Asanuma, J.; Machimura, T.; Nakai, Y.; Ohta, T.; Saigusa, N.; Takahashi, Y.; Hirano, T.
2010-03-01
Larch forests are widely distributed across many cool-temperate and boreal regions, and they are expected to play an important role in global carbon and water cycles. Model parameterizations for larch forests still contain large uncertainties owing to a lack of validation. In this study, a process-based terrestrial biosphere model, BIOME-BGC, was tested for larch forests at six AsiaFlux sites and used to identify important environmental factors that affect the carbon and water cycles at both temporal and spatial scales. The model simulation performed with the default deciduous conifer parameters produced results that had large differences from the observed net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE), and evapotranspiration (ET). Therefore, we adjusted several model parameters in order to reproduce the observed rates of carbon and water cycle processes. This model calibration, performed using the AsiaFlux data, substantially improved the model performance. The simulated annual GPP, RE, NEE, and ET from the calibrated model were highly consistent with observed values. The observed and simulated GPP and RE across the six sites were positively correlated with the annual mean air temperature and annual total precipitation. On the other hand, the simulated carbon budget was partly explained by the stand disturbance history in addition to the climate. The sensitivity study indicated that spring warming enhanced the carbon sink, whereas summer warming decreased it across the larch forests. The summer radiation was the most important factor that controlled the carbon fluxes in the temperate site, but the VPD and water conditions were the limiting factors in the boreal sites. One model parameter, the allocation ratio of carbon between belowground and aboveground, was site-specific, and it was negatively correlated with the annual climate of annual mean air temperature and total precipitation. Although this study substantially improved the model performance, the uncertainties that remained in terms of the sensitivity to water conditions should be examined in ongoing and long-term observations.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ueyama, M.; Ichii, K.; Hirata, R.; Takagi, K.; Asanuma, J.; Machimura, T.; Nakai, Y.; Ohta, T.; Saigusa, N.; Takahashi, Y.; Hirano, T.
2009-08-01
Larch forests are widely distributed across many cool-temperate and boreal regions, and they are expected to play an important role in global carbon and water cycles. Model parameterizations for larch forests still contain large uncertainties owing to a lack of validation. In this study, a process-based terrestrial biosphere model, BIOME-BGC, was tested for larch forests at six AsiaFlux sites and used to identify important environmental factors that affect the carbon and water cycles at both temporal and spatial scales. The model simulation performed with the default deciduous conifer parameters produced results that had large differences from the observed net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE), and evapotranspiration (ET). Therefore, we adjusted several model parameters in order to reproduce the observed rates of carbon and water cycle processes. This model calibration, performed using the AsiaFlux data, significantly improved the model performance. The simulated annual GPP, RE, NEE, and ET from the calibrated model were highly consistent with observed values. The observed and simulated GPP and RE across the six sites are positively correlated with the annual mean air temperature and annual total precipitation. On the other hand, the simulated carbon budget is partly explained by the stand disturbance history in addition to the climate. The sensitivity study indicates that spring warming enhances the carbon sink, whereas summer warming decreases it across the larch forests. The summer radiation is the most important factor that controls the carbon fluxes in the temperate site, but the VPD and water conditions are the limiting factors in the boreal sites. One model parameter, the allocation ratio of carbon between aboveground and belowground, is site-specific, and it is negatively correlated with the annual climate of annual mean air temperature and total precipitation. Although this study significantly improves the model performance, the uncertainties that remain in terms of the sensitivity to water conditions should be examined in ongoing and long-term observations.
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Economic approach to assess the forest carbon implications of biomass energy.
Daigneault, Adam; Sohngen, Brent; Sedjo, Roger
2012-06-05
There is widespread concern that biomass energy policy that promotes forests as a supply source will cause net carbon emissions. Most of the analyses that have been done to date, however, are biological, ignoring the effects of market adaptations through substitution, net imports, and timber investments. This paper uses a dynamic model of forest and land use management to estimate the impact of United States energy policies that emphasize the utilization of forest biomass on global timber production and carbon stocks over the next 50 years. We show that when market factors are included in the analysis, expanded demand for biomass energy increases timber prices and harvests, but reduces net global carbon emissions because higher wood prices lead to new investments in forest stocks. Estimates are sensitive to assumptions about whether harvest residues and new forestland can be used for biomass energy and the demand for biomass. Restricting biomass energy to being sourced only from roundwood on existing forestland can transform the policy from a net sink to a net source of emissions. These results illustrate the importance of capturing market adjustments and a large geographic scope when measuring the carbon implications of biomass energy policies.
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Thermal adaptation of net ecosystem exchange
Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Liang, S.; ...
2011-06-06
Thermal adaptation of gross primary production and ecosystem respiration has been well documented over broad thermal gradients. However, no study has examined their interaction as a function of temperature, i.e. the thermal responses of net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE). Here in this study, we constructed temperature response curves of NEE against temperature using 380 site-years of eddy covariance data at 72 forest, grassland and shrubland ecosystems located at latitudes ranging from ~29° N to 64° N. The response curves were used to define two critical temperatures: transition temperature (T b) at which ecosystem transfer from carbon source to sinkmore » and optimal temperature (T o) at which carbon uptake is maximized. T b was strongly correlated with annual mean air temperature. T o was strongly correlated with mean temperature during the net carbon uptake period across the study ecosystems. Our results imply that the net ecosystem exchange of carbon adapts to the temperature across the geographical range due to intrinsic connections between vegetation primary production and ecosystem respiration.« less
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Thermal adaptation of net ecosystem exchange
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Liang, S.
Thermal adaptation of gross primary production and ecosystem respiration has been well documented over broad thermal gradients. However, no study has examined their interaction as a function of temperature, i.e. the thermal responses of net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE). Here in this study, we constructed temperature response curves of NEE against temperature using 380 site-years of eddy covariance data at 72 forest, grassland and shrubland ecosystems located at latitudes ranging from ~29° N to 64° N. The response curves were used to define two critical temperatures: transition temperature (T b) at which ecosystem transfer from carbon source to sinkmore » and optimal temperature (T o) at which carbon uptake is maximized. T b was strongly correlated with annual mean air temperature. T o was strongly correlated with mean temperature during the net carbon uptake period across the study ecosystems. Our results imply that the net ecosystem exchange of carbon adapts to the temperature across the geographical range due to intrinsic connections between vegetation primary production and ecosystem respiration.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chang, J.; Viovy, N.; Vuichard, N.; Ciais, P.; Wang, T.; Cozic, A.; Lardy, R.; Graux, A.-I.; Klumpp, K.; Martin, R.; Soussana, J.-F.
2013-05-01
This study describes how management of grasslands is included in the ORCHIDEE process-based ecosystem model designed for large-scale applications, and how management affects modeled grassland-atmosphere CO2 fluxes. The new model, ORCHIDEE-GM (Grassland Management) is enabled with a management module inspired from a grassland model (PaSim, version 5.0), with two grassland management practices being considered, cutting and grazing, respectively. The evaluation of the results from ORCHIDEE compared with those of ORCHIDEE-GM at 11 European sites equipped with eddy covariance and biometric measurements, shows that ORCHIDEE-GM can capture realistically the cut-induced seasonal variation in biometric variables (LAI: Leaf Area Index; AGB: Aboveground Biomass) and in CO2 fluxes (GPP: Gross Primary Productivity; TER: Total Ecosystem Respiration; and NEE: Net Ecosystem Exchange). But improvements at grazing sites are only marginal in ORCHIDEE-GM, which relates to the difficulty in accounting for continuous grazing disturbance and its induced complex animal-vegetation interactions. Both NEE and GPP on monthly to annual timescales can be better simulated in ORCHIDEE-GM than in ORCHIDEE without management. ORCHIDEE-GM is capable to model the net carbon balance (NBP) of managed grasslands better than ORCHIDEE, because the management module allows to simulate the carbon fluxes of forage yield, herbage consumption, animal respiration and methane emissions.
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Responses of ecosystem carbon cycling to climate change treatments along an elevation gradient
Wu, Zhuoting; Koch, George W.; Dijkstra, Paul; Bowker, Matthew A.; Hungate, Bruce A.
2011-01-01
Global temperature increases and precipitation changes are both expected to alter ecosystem carbon (C) cycling. We tested responses of ecosystem C cycling to simulated climate change using field manipulations of temperature and precipitation across a range of grass-dominated ecosystems along an elevation gradient in northern Arizona. In 2002, we transplanted intact plant–soil mesocosms to simulate warming and used passive interceptors and collectors to manipulate precipitation. We measured daytime ecosystem respiration (ER) and net ecosystem C exchange throughout the growing season in 2008 and 2009. Warming generally stimulated ER and photosynthesis, but had variable effects on daytime net C exchange. Increased precipitation stimulated ecosystem C cycling only in the driest ecosystem at the lowest elevation, whereas decreased precipitation showed no effects on ecosystem C cycling across all ecosystems. No significant interaction between temperature and precipitation treatments was observed. Structural equation modeling revealed that in the wetter-than-average year of 2008, changes in ecosystem C cycling were more strongly affected by warming-induced reduction in soil moisture than by altered precipitation. In contrast, during the drier year of 2009, warming induced increase in soil temperature rather than changes in soil moisture determined ecosystem C cycling. Our findings suggest that warming exerted the strongest influence on ecosystem C cycling in both years, by modulating soil moisture in the wet year and soil temperature in the dry year.
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Kenneth L. Clark; Heidi J. Renninger; Nicholas Skowronski; Michael Gallagher; Karina V.R. Schäfer
2018-01-01
Understanding processes underlying forest carbon dynamics is essential for accurately predicting the outcomes of non-stand-replacing disturbance in intermediate-age forests. We quantified net ecosystem production (NEP), aboveground net primary production (ANPP), and the dynamics of major carbon (C) pools before and during the decade following invasive insect...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yue, X.; Unger, N.; Zheng, Y.
2015-10-01
The terrestrial biosphere has experienced dramatic changes in recent decades. Estimates of historical trends in land carbon fluxes remain uncertain because long-term observations are limited on the global scale. Here, we use the Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere (YIBs) model to estimate decadal trends in land carbon fluxes and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and to identify the key drivers for these changes during 1982-2011. Driven by hourly meteorology from WFDEI (WATCH forcing data methodology applied to ERA-Interim data), the model simulates an increasing trend of 297 Tg C a-2 in gross primary productivity (GPP) and 185 Tg C a-2 in the net primary productivity (NPP). CO2 fertilization is the main driver for the flux changes in forest ecosystems, while meteorology dominates the changes in grasslands and shrublands. Warming boosts summer GPP and NPP at high latitudes, while drought dampens carbon uptake in tropical regions. North of 30° N, increasing temperatures induce a substantial extension of 0.22 day a-1 for the growing season; however, this phenological change alone does not promote regional carbon uptake and BVOC emissions. Nevertheless, increases of leaf area index at peak season accounts for ~ 25 % of the trends in GPP and isoprene emissions at the northern lands. The net land sink shows statistically insignificant increases of only 3 Tg C a-2 globally because of simultaneous increases in soil respiration. Global BVOC emissions are calculated using two schemes. With the photosynthesis-dependent scheme, the model predicts increases of 0.4 Tg C a-2 in isoprene emissions, which are mainly attributed to warming trends because CO2 fertilization and inhibition effects offset each other. Using the MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) scheme, the YIBs model simulates global reductions of 1.1 Tg C a-2 in isoprene and 0.04 Tg C a-2 in monoterpene emissions in response to the CO2 inhibition effects. Land use change shows limited impacts on global carbon fluxes and BVOC emissions, but there are regional contrasting impacts over Europe (afforestation) and China (deforestation).
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fung, Jonathan Winston
Carbon dioxide is taken up by crops during production and released back to the atmosphere at different geographical locations through respiration of consumed crop commodities. In this study, spatially distributed county-level US cropland net primary productivity, harvested biomass, changes in soil carbon, and human and livestock consumption data were integrated into the prior terrestrial biosphere flux generated by the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS). A global time-dependent Bayesian synthesis inversion with a nested focus on North America was carried out based on CO2 observations at 210 stations. Overall, the inverted annual North American CO2 sink weakened by 6.5% over the period from 2002 to 2007 compared to simulations disregarding US crop statistical data. The US Midwest is found to be the major sink of 0.36±0.13 PgC yr-1 whereas the large sink in the US Southeast forests weakened to 0.16±0.12 PgC yr-1 partly due to local CO2 sources from crop consumption.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rafique, Rashid; Xia, Jianyang; Hararuk, Oleksandra; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Leng, Guoyong; Wang, Yingping; Luo, Yiqi
2016-07-01
Representations of the terrestrial carbon cycle in land models are becoming increasingly complex. It is crucial to develop approaches for critical assessment of the complex model properties in order to understand key factors contributing to models' performance. In this study, we applied a traceability analysis which decomposes carbon cycle models into traceable components, for two global land models (CABLE and CLM-CASA') to diagnose the causes of their differences in simulating ecosystem carbon storage capacity. Driven with similar forcing data, CLM-CASA' predicted ˜ 31 % larger carbon storage capacity than CABLE. Since ecosystem carbon storage capacity is a product of net primary productivity (NPP) and ecosystem residence time (τE), the predicted difference in the storage capacity between the two models results from differences in either NPP or τE or both. Our analysis showed that CLM-CASA' simulated 37 % higher NPP than CABLE. On the other hand, τE, which was a function of the baseline carbon residence time (τ'E) and environmental effect on carbon residence time, was on average 11 years longer in CABLE than CLM-CASA'. This difference in τE was mainly caused by longer τ'E of woody biomass (23 vs. 14 years in CLM-CASA'), and higher proportion of NPP allocated to woody biomass (23 vs. 16 %). Differences in environmental effects on carbon residence times had smaller influences on differences in ecosystem carbon storage capacities compared to differences in NPP and τ'E. Overall, the traceability analysis showed that the major causes of different carbon storage estimations were found to be parameters setting related to carbon input and baseline carbon residence times between two models.
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Rafique, Rashid; Xia, Jianyang; Hararuk, Oleksandra; ...
2016-07-29
Representations of the terrestrial carbon cycle in land models are becoming increasingly complex. It is crucial to develop approaches for critical assessment of the complex model properties in order to understand key factors contributing to models' performance. In this study, we applied a traceability analysis which decomposes carbon cycle models into traceable components, for two global land models (CABLE and CLM-CASA') to diagnose the causes of their differences in simulating ecosystem carbon storage capacity. Driven with similar forcing data, CLM-CASA' predicted – 31 % larger carbon storage capacity than CABLE. Since ecosystem carbon storage capacity is a product of net primary productivitymore » (NPP) and ecosystem residence time ( τ E), the predicted difference in the storage capacity between the two models results from differences in either NPP or τ E or both. Our analysis showed that CLM-CASA'simulated 37 % higher NPP than CABLE. On the other hand, τ E, which was a function of the baseline carbon residence time ( τ' E) and environmental effect on carbon residence time, was on average 11 years longer in CABLE than CLM-CASA'. This difference in τ E was mainly caused by longer τ' E of woody biomass (23 vs. 14 years in CLM-CASA'), and higher proportion of NPP allocated to woody biomass (23 vs. 16 %). Differences in environmental effects on carbon residence times had smaller influences on differences in ecosystem carbon storage capacities compared to differences in NPP and τ' E. Altogether, the traceability analysis showed that the major causes of different carbon storage estimations were found to be parameters setting related to carbon input and baseline carbon residence times between two models.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Rafique, Rashid; Xia, Jianyang; Hararuk, Oleksandra
Representations of the terrestrial carbon cycle in land models are becoming increasingly complex. It is crucial to develop approaches for critical assessment of the complex model properties in order to understand key factors contributing to models' performance. In this study, we applied a traceability analysis which decomposes carbon cycle models into traceable components, for two global land models (CABLE and CLM-CASA') to diagnose the causes of their differences in simulating ecosystem carbon storage capacity. Driven with similar forcing data, CLM-CASA' predicted – 31 % larger carbon storage capacity than CABLE. Since ecosystem carbon storage capacity is a product of net primary productivitymore » (NPP) and ecosystem residence time ( τ E), the predicted difference in the storage capacity between the two models results from differences in either NPP or τ E or both. Our analysis showed that CLM-CASA'simulated 37 % higher NPP than CABLE. On the other hand, τ E, which was a function of the baseline carbon residence time ( τ' E) and environmental effect on carbon residence time, was on average 11 years longer in CABLE than CLM-CASA'. This difference in τ E was mainly caused by longer τ' E of woody biomass (23 vs. 14 years in CLM-CASA'), and higher proportion of NPP allocated to woody biomass (23 vs. 16 %). Differences in environmental effects on carbon residence times had smaller influences on differences in ecosystem carbon storage capacities compared to differences in NPP and τ' E. Altogether, the traceability analysis showed that the major causes of different carbon storage estimations were found to be parameters setting related to carbon input and baseline carbon residence times between two models.« less
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Peylin, Philippe; Bacour, Cédric; MacBean, Natasha; ...
2016-09-20
Here, large uncertainties in land surface models (LSMs) simulations still arise from inaccurate forcing, poor description of land surface heterogeneity (soil and vegetation properties), incorrect model parameter values and incomplete representation of biogeochemical processes. The recent increase in the number and type of carbon cycle-related observations, including both in situ and remote sensing measurements, has opened a new road to optimize model parameters via robust statistical model–data integration techniques, in order to reduce the uncertainties of simulated carbon fluxes and stocks. In this study we present a carbon cycle data assimilation system that assimilates three major data streams, namely themore » Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observations of vegetation activity, net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and latent heat (LE) flux measurements at more than 70 sites (FLUXNET), as well as atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at 53 surface stations, in order to optimize the main parameters (around 180 parameters in total) of the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamics Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) LSM (version 1.9.5 used for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations). The system relies on a stepwise approach that assimilates each data stream in turn, propagating the information gained on the parameters from one step to the next. Overall, the ORCHIDEE model is able to achieve a consistent fit to all three data streams, which suggests that current LSMs have reached the level of development to assimilate these observations. The assimilation of MODIS-NDVI (step 1) reduced the growing season length in ORCHIDEE for temperate and boreal ecosystems, thus decreasing the global mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Using FLUXNET data (step 2) led to large improvements in the seasonal cycle of the NEE and LE fluxes for all ecosystems (i.e., increased amplitude for temperate ecosystems). The assimilation of atmospheric CO 2, using the general circulation model (GCM) of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMDz; step 3), provides an overall constraint (i.e., constraint on large-scale net CO 2 fluxes), resulting in an improvement of the fit to the observed atmospheric CO 2 growth rate. Thus, the optimized model predicts a land C (carbon) sink of around 2.2 PgC yr -1 (for the 2000–2009 period), which is more compatible with current estimates from the Global Carbon Project (GCP) than the prior value. The consistency of the stepwise approach is evaluated with back-compatibility checks. The final optimized model (after step 3) does not significantly degrade the fit to MODIS-NDVI and FLUXNET data that were assimilated in the first two steps, suggesting that a stepwise approach can be used instead of the more “challenging” implementation of a simultaneous optimization in which all data streams are assimilated together. Most parameters, including the scalar of the initial soil carbon pool size, changed during the optimization with a large error reduction. This work opens new perspectives for better predictions of the land carbon budgets.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Peylin, Philippe; Bacour, Cédric; MacBean, Natasha
Here, large uncertainties in land surface models (LSMs) simulations still arise from inaccurate forcing, poor description of land surface heterogeneity (soil and vegetation properties), incorrect model parameter values and incomplete representation of biogeochemical processes. The recent increase in the number and type of carbon cycle-related observations, including both in situ and remote sensing measurements, has opened a new road to optimize model parameters via robust statistical model–data integration techniques, in order to reduce the uncertainties of simulated carbon fluxes and stocks. In this study we present a carbon cycle data assimilation system that assimilates three major data streams, namely themore » Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observations of vegetation activity, net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and latent heat (LE) flux measurements at more than 70 sites (FLUXNET), as well as atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at 53 surface stations, in order to optimize the main parameters (around 180 parameters in total) of the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamics Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) LSM (version 1.9.5 used for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations). The system relies on a stepwise approach that assimilates each data stream in turn, propagating the information gained on the parameters from one step to the next. Overall, the ORCHIDEE model is able to achieve a consistent fit to all three data streams, which suggests that current LSMs have reached the level of development to assimilate these observations. The assimilation of MODIS-NDVI (step 1) reduced the growing season length in ORCHIDEE for temperate and boreal ecosystems, thus decreasing the global mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Using FLUXNET data (step 2) led to large improvements in the seasonal cycle of the NEE and LE fluxes for all ecosystems (i.e., increased amplitude for temperate ecosystems). The assimilation of atmospheric CO 2, using the general circulation model (GCM) of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMDz; step 3), provides an overall constraint (i.e., constraint on large-scale net CO 2 fluxes), resulting in an improvement of the fit to the observed atmospheric CO 2 growth rate. Thus, the optimized model predicts a land C (carbon) sink of around 2.2 PgC yr -1 (for the 2000–2009 period), which is more compatible with current estimates from the Global Carbon Project (GCP) than the prior value. The consistency of the stepwise approach is evaluated with back-compatibility checks. The final optimized model (after step 3) does not significantly degrade the fit to MODIS-NDVI and FLUXNET data that were assimilated in the first two steps, suggesting that a stepwise approach can be used instead of the more “challenging” implementation of a simultaneous optimization in which all data streams are assimilated together. Most parameters, including the scalar of the initial soil carbon pool size, changed during the optimization with a large error reduction. This work opens new perspectives for better predictions of the land carbon budgets.« less
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Recent change of artic tundra ecosystems from a net carbon dioxide sink to a source
Walter C. Oechel; Steven J. Hastings; George Vourlitis; Mitchell Jenkins; George Riechers; Nancy Grulke
1993-01-01
Arctic tundra has been a net sink for carbon dioxide during historic and recent geological times1-4, and large amounts of carbon are stored in the soils of northern ecosystems. Many regions of the Arctic are warmer now than they have been in the past5-10, and this warming may cause the soil to change from a carbon dioxide...
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Spring Hydrology Determines Summer Net Carbon Uptake in Northern Ecosystems
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yi, Yonghong; Kimball, John; Reichle, Rolf H.
2014-01-01
Increased photosynthetic activity and enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange of northern ecosystems have been observed from a variety of sources including satellite vegetation indices (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) and atmospheric CO2 measurements. Most of these changes have been attributed to strong warming trends in the northern high latitudes (greater than or equal to 50N). Here we analyze the interannual variation of summer net carbon uptake derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements and satellite NDVI in relation to surface meteorology from regional observational records. We find that increases in spring precipitation and snow pack promote summer net carbon uptake of northern ecosystems independent of air temperature effects. However, satellite NDVI measurements still show an overall benefit of summer photosynthetic activity from regional warming and limited impact of spring precipitation. This discrepancy is attributed to a similar response of photosynthesis and respiration to warming and thus reduced sensitivity of net ecosystem carbon uptake to temperature. Further analysis of boreal tower eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements indicates that summer net carbon uptake is positively correlated with early growing-season surface soil moisture, which is also strongly affected by spring precipitation and snow pack based on analysis of satellite soil moisture retrievals. This is attributed to strong regulation of spring hydrology on soil respiration in relatively wet boreal and arctic ecosystems. These results document the important role of spring hydrology in determining summer net carbon uptake and contrast with prevailing assumptions of dominant cold temperature limitations to high-latitude ecosystems. Our results indicate potentially stronger coupling of boreal/arctic water and carbon cycles with continued regional warming trends.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Li, Wei; McGrath, Matthew J.; Chang, Jinfeng; Peng, Shushi
2018-01-01
Land use change (LUC) is among the main anthropogenic disturbances in the global carbon cycle. Here we present the model developments in a global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2 for a more realistic representation of LUC processes. First, we included gross land use change (primarily shifting cultivation) and forest wood harvest in addition to net land use change. Second, we included sub-grid evenly aged land cohorts to represent secondary forests and to keep track of the transient stage of agricultural lands since LUC. Combination of these two features allows the simulation of shifting cultivation with a rotation length involving mainly secondary forests instead of primary ones. Furthermore, a set of decision rules regarding the land cohorts to be targeted in different LUC processes have been implemented. Idealized site-scale simulation has been performed for miombo woodlands in southern Africa assuming an annual land turnover rate of 5 % grid cell area between forest and cropland. The result shows that the model can correctly represent forest recovery and cohort aging arising from agricultural abandonment. Such a land turnover process, even though without a net change in land cover, yields carbon emissions largely due to the imbalance between the fast release from forest clearing and the slow uptake from agricultural abandonment. The simulation with sub-grid land cohorts gives lower emissions than without, mainly because the cleared secondary forests have a lower biomass carbon stock than the mature forests that are otherwise cleared when sub-grid land cohorts are not considered. Over the region of southern Africa, the model is able to account for changes in different forest cohort areas along with the historical changes in different LUC activities, including regrowth of old forests when LUC area decreases. Our developments provide possibilities to account for continental or global forest demographic change resulting from past anthropogenic and natural disturbances.
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Potential Applications of Gosat Based Carbon Budget Products to Refine Terrestrial Ecosystem Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kondo, M.; Ichii, K.
2011-12-01
Estimation of carbon exchange in terrestrial ecosystem associates with difficulties due to complex entanglement of physical and biological processes: thus, the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) estimated from simulation often differs among process-based terrestrial ecosystem models. In addition to complexity of the system, validation can only be conducted in a point scale since reliable observation is only available from ground observations. With a lack of large spatial data, extension of model simulation to a global scale results in significant uncertainty in the future carbon balance and climate change. Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), launched by the Japanese space agency (JAXA) in January, 2009, is the 1st operational satellite promised to deliver the net land-atmosphere carbon budget to the terrestrial biosphere research community. Using that information, the model reproducibility of carbon budget is expected to improve: hence, gives a better estimation of the future climate change. This initial analysis is to seek and evaluate the potential applications of GOSAT observation toward the sophistication of terrestrial ecosystem model. The present study was conducted in two processes: site-based analysis using eddy covariance observation data to assess the potential use of terrestrial carbon fluxes (GPP, RE, and NEP) to refine the model, and extension of the point scale analysis to spatial using Carbon Tracker product as a prototype of GOSAT product. In the first phase of the experiment, it was verified that an optimization routine adapted to a terrestrial model, Biome-BGC, yielded the improved result with respect to eddy covariance observation data from AsiaFlux Network. Spatial data sets used in the second phase were consists of GPP from empirical algorithm (e.g. support vector machine), NEP from Carbon Tracker, and RE from the combination of these. These spatial carbon flux estimations was used to refine the model applying the exactly same optimization procedure as the point analysis, and found that these spatial data help to improve the model's overall reproducibility. The GOSAT product is expected to have higher accuracy since it uses global CO2 observations. Therefore, with the application of GOSAT data, a better estimation of terrestrial carbon cycle can be achieved with optimization. It is anticipated to carry out more detailed analysis upon the arrival of GOSAT product and to verify the reduction in the uncertainty in the future carbon budget and the climate change with the calibrated models, which is the major contribution can be achieved from GOSAT.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Raczka, B. M.; Bowling, D. R.; Lin, J. C.; Lee, J. E.; Yang, X.; Duarte, H.; Zuromski, L.
2017-12-01
Forests of the Western United States are prone to drought, temperature extremes, forest fires and insect infestation. These disturbance render carbon stocks and land-atmosphere carbon exchanges highly variable and vulnerable to change. Regional estimates of carbon exchange from terrestrial ecosystem models are challenged, in part, by a lack of net ecosystem exchange observations (e.g. flux towers) due to the complex mountainous terrain. Alternatively, carbon estimates based on light use efficiency models that depend upon remotely-sensed greenness indices are challenged due to a weak relationship with GPP during the winter season. Recent advances in the retrieval of remotely sensed solar induced fluorescence (SIF) have demonstrated a strong seasonal relationship between GPP and SIF for deciduous, grass and, to a lesser extent, conifer species. This provides an important opportunity to use remotely-sensed SIF to calibrate terrestrial ecosystem models providing a more accurate regional representation of biomass and carbon exchange across mountainous terrain. Here we incorporate both leaf-level fluorescence and leaf-to-canopy radiative transfer represented by the SCOPE model into CLM 4.5 (CLM-SIF). We simulate canopy level fluorescence at a sub-alpine forest site (Niwot Ridge, Colorado) and test whether these simulations reproduce remotely-sensed SIF from a satellite (GOME2). We found that the average peak SIF during the growing season (yrs 2007-2013) was similar between the model and satellite observations (within 15%); however, simulated SIF during the winter season was significantly greater than the satellite observations (5x higher). This implies that the fluorescence yield is overestimated by the model during the winter season. It is important that the modeled representation of seasonal fluorescence yield is improved to provide an accurate seasonal representation of SIF across the Western United States.
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Spring photosynthetic onset and net CO2 uptake in Alaska triggered by landscape thawing.
Parazoo, Nicholas C; Arneth, Almut; Pugh, Thomas A M; Smith, Ben; Steiner, Nicholas; Luus, Kristina; Commane, Roisin; Benmergui, Josh; Stofferahn, Eric; Liu, Junjie; Rödenbeck, Christian; Kawa, Randy; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Zona, Donatella; Arndt, Kyle; Oechel, Walt; Miller, Charles
2018-04-24
The springtime transition to regional-scale onset of photosynthesis and net ecosystem carbon uptake in boreal and tundra ecosystems are linked to the soil freeze-thaw state. We present evidence from diagnostic and inversion models constrained by satellite fluorescence and airborne CO 2 from 2012 to 2014 indicating the timing and magnitude of spring carbon uptake in Alaska correlates with landscape thaw and ecoregion. Landscape thaw in boreal forests typically occurs in late April (DOY 111 ± 7) with a 29 ± 6 day lag until photosynthetic onset. North Slope tundra thaws 3 weeks later (DOY 133 ± 5) but experiences only a 20 ± 5 day lag until photosynthetic onset. These time lag differences reflect efficient cold season adaptation in tundra shrub and the longer dehardening period for boreal evergreens. Despite the short transition from thaw to photosynthetic onset in tundra, synchrony of tundra respiration with snow melt and landscape thaw delays the transition from net carbon loss (at photosynthetic onset) to net uptake by 13 ± 7 days, thus reducing the tundra net carbon uptake period. Two global CO 2 inversions using a CASA-GFED model prior estimate earlier northern high latitude net carbon uptake compared to our regional inversion, which we attribute to (i) early photosynthetic-onset model prior bias, (ii) inverse method (scaling factor + optimization window), and (iii) sparsity of available Alaskan CO 2 observations. Another global inversion with zero prior estimates the same timing for net carbon uptake as the regional model but smaller seasonal amplitude. The analysis of Alaskan eddy covariance observations confirms regional scale findings for tundra, but indicates that photosynthesis and net carbon uptake occur up to 1 month earlier in evergreens than captured by models or CO 2 inversions, with better correlation to above-freezing air temperature than date of primary thaw. Further collection and analysis of boreal evergreen species over multiple years and at additional subarctic flux towers are critically needed. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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From sink to source: Regional variation in U.S. forest carbon futures
Wear, David N.; Coulston, John W.
2015-01-01
The sequestration of atmospheric carbon (C) in forests has partially offset C emissions in the United States (US) and might reduce overall costs of achieving emission targets, especially while transportation and energy sectors are transitioning to lower-carbon technologies. Using detailed forest inventory data for the conterminous US, we estimate forests’ current net sequestration of atmospheric C to be 173 Tg yr−1, offsetting 9.7% of C emissions from transportation and energy sources. Accounting for multiple driving variables, we project a gradual decline in the forest C emission sink over the next 25 years (to 112 Tg yr−1) with regional differences. Sequestration in eastern regions declines gradually while sequestration in the Rocky Mountain region declines rapidly and could become a source of atmospheric C due to disturbances such as fire and insect epidemics. C sequestration in the Pacific Coast region stabilizes as forests harvested in previous decades regrow. Scenarios simulating climate-induced productivity enhancement and afforestation policies increase sequestration rates, but would not fully offset declines from aging and forest disturbances. Separating C transfers associated with land use changes from sequestration clarifies forests’ role in reducing net emissions and demonstrates that retention of forest land is crucial for protecting or enhancing sink strength. PMID:26558439
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From sink to source: Regional variation in U.S. forest carbon futures.
Wear, David N; Coulston, John W
2015-11-12
The sequestration of atmospheric carbon (C) in forests has partially offset C emissions in the United States (US) and might reduce overall costs of achieving emission targets, especially while transportation and energy sectors are transitioning to lower-carbon technologies. Using detailed forest inventory data for the conterminous US, we estimate forests' current net sequestration of atmospheric C to be 173 Tg yr(-1), offsetting 9.7% of C emissions from transportation and energy sources. Accounting for multiple driving variables, we project a gradual decline in the forest C emission sink over the next 25 years (to 112 Tg yr(-1)) with regional differences. Sequestration in eastern regions declines gradually while sequestration in the Rocky Mountain region declines rapidly and could become a source of atmospheric C due to disturbances such as fire and insect epidemics. C sequestration in the Pacific Coast region stabilizes as forests harvested in previous decades regrow. Scenarios simulating climate-induced productivity enhancement and afforestation policies increase sequestration rates, but would not fully offset declines from aging and forest disturbances. Separating C transfers associated with land use changes from sequestration clarifies forests' role in reducing net emissions and demonstrates that retention of forest land is crucial for protecting or enhancing sink strength.
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Implications of Uncertainty in Fossil Fuel Emissions for Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
King, A. W.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Mao, J.; Andres, R. J.
2017-12-01
Given observations of the increase in atmospheric CO2, estimates of anthropogenic emissions and models of oceanic CO2 uptake, one can estimate net global CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems as the residual of the balanced global carbon budget. Estimates from the Global Carbon Project 2016 show that terrestrial ecosystems are a growing sink for atmospheric CO2 (averaging 2.12 Gt C y-1 for the period 1959-2015 with a growth rate of 0.03 Gt C y-1 per year) but with considerable year-to-year variability (standard deviation of 1.07 Gt C y-1). Within the uncertainty of the observations, emissions estimates and ocean modeling, this residual calculation is a robust estimate of a global terrestrial sink for CO2. A task of terrestrial ecosystem science is to explain the trend and variability in this estimate. However, "within the uncertainty" is an important caveat. The uncertainty (2σ; 95% confidence interval) in fossil fuel emissions is 8.4% (±0.8 Gt C in 2015). Combined with uncertainty in other carbon budget components, the 2σ uncertainty surrounding the global net terrestrial ecosystem CO2 exchange is ±1.6 Gt C y-1. Ignoring the uncertainty, the estimate of a general terrestrial sink includes 2 years (1987 and 1998) in which terrestrial ecosystems are a small source of CO2 to the atmosphere. However, with 2σ uncertainty, terrestrial ecosystems may have been a source in as many as 18 years. We examine how well global terrestrial biosphere models simulate the trend and interannual variability of the global-budget estimate of the terrestrial sink within the context of this uncertainty (e.g., which models fall outside the 2σ uncertainty and in what years). Models are generally capable of reproducing the trend in net terrestrial exchange, but are less able to capture interannual variability and often fall outside the 2σ uncertainty. The trend in the residual carbon budget estimate is primarily associated with the increase in atmospheric CO2, while interannual variation is related to variations in global land-surface temperature with weaker sinks in warmer years. We examine whether these relationships are reproduced in models. Their absence might explain weaknesses in model simulations or in the reconstruction of historical climate used as drivers in model intercomparison projects (MIPs).
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Modeling landscape net ecosystem productivity (LandNEP) under alternative management regimes
Eugenie S. Euskirchen; Jiquan Chen; Harbin Li; Eric J. Gustafson; Thomas R. Crow
2002-01-01
Forests have been considered as a major carbon sink within the global carbon budget. However, a fragmented forest landscape varies significantly in its composition and age structure, and the amount of carbon sequestered at this level remains generally unknown to the scientific community. More precisely, the temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of net ecosystem...
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Measurement of soil carbon oxidation state and oxidative ratio by 13C nuclear magnetic resonance
W.C. Hockaday; C.A. Masiello; J.T. Randerson; R.J. Smernik; J.A. Baldock; O. A. Chadwick; J.W. Harden
2009-01-01
The oxidative ratio (OR) of the net ecosystem carbon balance is the ratio of net O2 and CO2 fluxes resulting from photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition, and other lateral and vertical carbon flows. The OR of the terrestrial biosphere must be well characterized to accurately estimate the terrestrial CO2...
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Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Fossil fuel emissions aside, temperate North America is a net sink of carbon dioxide at present1–3. Year-to-year variations in this carbon sink are linked to variations in hydroclimate that affect net ecosystem productivity3,4. The severity and incidence of climatic extremes, including drought, have...
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Yang, Bai
Testing complex land surface models has often proceeded by asking the question: does the model prediction agree with the observation? This approach has yet led to high-performance terrestrial models that meet the challenges of climate and ecological studies. Here we test the Community Land Model (CLM) by asking the question: does the model behave like an ecosystem? We pursue its answer by testing CLM in the ecosystem functional space (EFS) at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) forest site in the Central U.S., focusing on carbon and water flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses. In the observed EFS, precipitationmore » regimes and associated water and heat stresses controlled seasonal and interannual variations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 and evapotranspiration in this deciduous forest ecosystem. Such controls were exerted more strongly by precipitation variability than by the total precipitation amount per se. A few simply constructed climate variability indices captured these controls, suggesting a high degree of potential predictability. While the interannual fluctuation in NEE was large, a net carbon sink was maintained even during an extreme drought year. Although CLM predicted seasonal and interanual variations in evapotranspiration reasonably well, its predictions of net carbon uptake were too small across the observed range of climate variability. Also, the model systematically underestimated the sensitivities of NEE and evapotranspiration to climate variability and overestimated the coupling strength between carbon and water fluxes. Its suspected that the modeled and observed trajectories of ecosystem fluxes did not overlap in the EFS and the model did not behave like the ecosystem it attempted to simulate. A definitive conclusion will require comprehensive parameter and structural sensitivity tests in a rigorous mathematical framework. We also suggest that future model improvements should focus on better representation and parameterization of process responses to environmental stresses and on more complete and robust representations of carbon-specific processes so that adequate responses to climate variability and a proper degree of coupling between carbon and water exchanges are captured.« less
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Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Yang, Bai; ...
2016-07-14
Testing complex land surface models has often proceeded by asking the question: does the model prediction agree with the observation? This approach has yet led to high-performance terrestrial models that meet the challenges of climate and ecological studies. Here we test the Community Land Model (CLM) by asking the question: does the model behave like an ecosystem? We pursue its answer by testing CLM in the ecosystem functional space (EFS) at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) forest site in the Central U.S., focusing on carbon and water flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses. In the observed EFS, precipitationmore » regimes and associated water and heat stresses controlled seasonal and interannual variations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 and evapotranspiration in this deciduous forest ecosystem. Such controls were exerted more strongly by precipitation variability than by the total precipitation amount per se. A few simply constructed climate variability indices captured these controls, suggesting a high degree of potential predictability. While the interannual fluctuation in NEE was large, a net carbon sink was maintained even during an extreme drought year. Although CLM predicted seasonal and interanual variations in evapotranspiration reasonably well, its predictions of net carbon uptake were too small across the observed range of climate variability. Also, the model systematically underestimated the sensitivities of NEE and evapotranspiration to climate variability and overestimated the coupling strength between carbon and water fluxes. Its suspected that the modeled and observed trajectories of ecosystem fluxes did not overlap in the EFS and the model did not behave like the ecosystem it attempted to simulate. A definitive conclusion will require comprehensive parameter and structural sensitivity tests in a rigorous mathematical framework. We also suggest that future model improvements should focus on better representation and parameterization of process responses to environmental stresses and on more complete and robust representations of carbon-specific processes so that adequate responses to climate variability and a proper degree of coupling between carbon and water exchanges are captured.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Levis, S.
2016-12-01
Fire is an integral Earth system process and the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale. Here we provide the first quantitative assessment and understanding on fire's impact on global land carbon, water, and energy budgets and climate through changing ecosystems. This is done by quantifying the difference between 20th century fire-on and fire-off simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2). Results show that fire decreases the net carbon gain of global terrestrial ecosystems by 1.0 Pg C/yr averaged across the 20th century, as a result of biomass and peat burning (1.9 Pg C/yr) partly offset by changing gross primary productivity, respiration, and land-use carbon loss (-0.9 Pg C/yr). In addition, fire's effect on global carbon budget intensifies with time. Fire significantly reduces land evapotranspiration (ET) by 600 km3/yr and increases runoff, but has limited impact on precipitation. The impact on ET and runoff is most clearly seen in the tropical savannas, African rainforest, and some boreal and Southern Asian forests mainly due to fire-induced reduction in the vegetation canopy. It also weakens both the significant upward trend in global land ET prior to the 1950s and the downward trend from 1950 to 1985 by 35%. Fire-induced changes in land ecosystems affects global energy budgets by significantly reducing latent heating and surface net radiation. Fire changes surface radiative budget dominantly by raising surface upward longwave radiation and net longwave radiation. It also increases the global land average surface air temperature (Tas) by 0.04°C, and significantly increases wind speed and decreases surface relative humidity. The fire-induced change in wind speed, Tas, and relative humidity implies a positive feedback loop between fire and climate. Moreover, fire-induced changes in land ecosystems contribute 20% of strong global land warming during 1910-1940, which provides a new mechanism for the early 20th century global land warming. The results emphasize the importance of fire disturbance in the Earth's carbon, water, and energy cycles and climate by changing terrestrial ecosystems.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Parrott, Lael; Price, David T.; Ramankutty, Navin; Damon Matthews, H.
2016-09-01
The ongoing major outbreak of mountain pine beetle (MPB) in forests of western North America has led to considerable research efforts. However, many questions remain unaddressed regarding its long-term impacts, especially when accounting for the range of possible responses from the non-target vegetation (i.e., deciduous trees and lower-canopy shrubs and grasses). We used the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) process-based ecosystem model along with the recently incorporated Marauding Insect Module (MIM) to quantify, over 240 years, the impacts of various MPB outbreak regimes on lodgepole pine merchantable biomass, ecosystem carbon, surface albedo, and the net radiative forcing on global climate caused by the changes in ecosystem carbon and albedo. We performed simulations for three locations in British Columbia, Canada, with different climatic conditions, and four scenarios of various coexisting vegetation types with variable growth release responses. The impacts of MPB outbreaks on merchantable biomass (decrease) and surface albedo (increase) were similar across the 12 combinations of locations and vegetation coexistence scenarios. The impacts on ecosystem carbon and radiative forcing, however, varied substantially in magnitude and sign, depending upon the presence and response of the non-target vegetation, particularly for the two locations not subjected to growing-season soil moisture stress; this variability represents the main finding from our study. Despite major uncertainty in the value of the resulting radiative forcing, a simple analysis also suggested that the MPB outbreak in British Columbia will have a smaller impact on global temperature over the coming decades and centuries than a single month of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production. Moreover, we found that (1) outbreak severity (i.e., per-event mortality) had a stronger effect than outbreak return interval on the variables studied, (2) MPB-induced changes in carbon dynamics had a stronger effect than concurrent changes in albedo on net radiative forcing, and (3) the physical presence of MPB-killed dead standing trees was potentially beneficial to tree regrowth. Given that the variability of pre-outbreak vegetation characteristics can lead to very different regeneration pathways, the four vegetation coexistence scenarios we simulated probably only sampled the range of possible responses.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kayanne, Hajime; Suzuki, Atsushi; Saito, Hiroshi
Coral reefs are considered to be a source of atmospheric carbon dioxide because of their high calcium carbonate production and low net primary production. This was tested by direct measurement of diurnal changes in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (P{sub CO2}) in reef waters during two 3-day periods, one in March 1993 and one in March 1994, on Shiraho reef of the Ryukyu Islands, Japan. Although the P{sub CO2} values in reef waters exhibited large diurnal changes ranging from 160 to 520 microatmospheres, they indicate that the reef flat area is a net sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. Thismore » suggests that the net organic production rate of the reef community exceeded its calcium carbonate production rate during the observation periods. 16 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.« less
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The simulated climate of the Last Glacial Maximum and insights into the global marine carbon cycle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Buchanan, Pearse J.; Matear, Richard J.; Lenton, Andrew; Phipps, Steven J.; Chase, Zanna; Etheridge, David M.
2016-12-01
The ocean's ability to store large quantities of carbon, combined with the millennial longevity over which this reservoir is overturned, has implicated the ocean as a key driver of glacial-interglacial climates. However, the combination of processes that cause an accumulation of carbon within the ocean during glacial periods is still under debate. Here we present simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using the CSIRO Mk3L-COAL (Carbon-Ocean-Atmosphere-Land) earth system model to test the contribution of physical and biogeochemical processes to ocean carbon storage. For the LGM simulation, we find a significant global cooling of the surface ocean (3.2 °C) and the expansion of both minimum and maximum sea ice cover broadly consistent with proxy reconstructions. The glacial ocean stores an additional 267 Pg C in the deep ocean relative to the pre-industrial (PI) simulation due to stronger Antarctic Bottom Water formation. However, 889 Pg C is lost from the upper ocean via equilibration with a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration and a global decrease in export production, causing a net loss of carbon relative to the PI ocean. The LGM deep ocean also experiences an oxygenation ( > 100 mmol O2 m-3) and deepening of the calcite saturation horizon (exceeds the ocean bottom) at odds with proxy reconstructions. With modifications to key biogeochemical processes, which include an increased export of organic matter due to a simulated release from iron limitation, a deepening of remineralisation and decreased inorganic carbon export driven by cooler temperatures, we find that the carbon content of the glacial ocean can be sufficiently increased (317 Pg C) to explain the reduction in atmospheric and terrestrial carbon at the LGM (194 ± 2 and 330 ± 400 Pg C, respectively). Assuming an LGM-PI difference of 95 ppm pCO2, we find that 55 ppm can be attributed to the biological pump, 28 ppm to circulation changes and the remaining 12 ppm to solubility. The biogeochemical modifications also improve model-proxy agreement in export production, carbonate chemistry and dissolved oxygen fields. Thus, we find strong evidence that variations in the oceanic biological pump exert a primary control on the climate.
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Changing Forest Land Use in the Pacific Northwest and Implications for Ecosystem Processes (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Law, B. E.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Yang, Z.
2013-12-01
Human use of forests in the Pacific Northwest US has evolved from underburning for wildlife habitat, to clearing for subsistence living, and an emphasis on timber production. In Oregon, forests older than 200 years now occupy less than 1 percent of private land that accounts for half the forest area, and ranges from 15 to almost 60 percent of public lands depending on the ecoregion. The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) was implemented on public lands in 1993 as a region-wide forest management regime intended to conserve species at risk from extensive harvest of older forests. The result was an 82 percent reduction in harvest removals on public forest lands, and subsequently, public forestland became a carbon sink while private forest remained near carbon neutral. Currently, forest management on public lands in the PNW emphasizes widespread thinning of forests to reduce wildfire risk, and thinning and slash removal for bioenergy production. In addition, several states have set ambitious GHG reduction targets. These policies are being implemented even though many aspects have not been adequately assessed for the effects on forests. CLM4 simulations over Oregon show that by the year 2100, net carbon uptake increases by 32-68% depending on the climate and CO2 scenario, suggesting that enhanced productivity from a warmer climate and CO2 fertilization compensates for disturbance losses if business-as-usual management continues. Water cycle implications are also considered. Simulated repeat thinnings were applied in areas susceptible to fire to reduce mortality and fire emissions, and clearcut rotations were applied in productive forests to provide biomass for both wood products and bioenergy. CLM input to a Life Cycle Assessment, which tracks emissions off-site, shows that none of the scenarios reduce regional net CO2 emissions to the atmosphere by the end of the 21st century. Thinning dry forests to reduce potential fire emissions led to no net change in emissions from BAU management by 2100, while the management scenarios in mesic forests increased emissions, driving state-level emissions estimates. Mesic forests in the Coast Range and West Cascades have the potential to hold significantly more carbon (maximum observed live mass of 33 and 27 kg C/m^2 reached at ages 310 and 430, respectively) and can live 400 to 700 years. Climate mitigation will require place-based management, such as maintaining mature and old coastal rainforests for carbon sequestration, watershed protection, and biodiversity, and thinning some dry forests that are susceptible to mortality.
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Annual measurements of gain and loss in aboveground carbon density
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baccini, A.; Walker, W. S.; Carvalho, L.; Farina, M.; Sulla-menashe, D. J.; Houghton, R. A.
2017-12-01
Tropical forests hold large stores of carbon, but their net carbon balance is uncertain. Land use and land-cover change (LULCC) are believed to release between 0.81 and 1.14 PgC yr-1, while intact native forests are thought to be a net carbon sink of approximately the same magnitude. Reducing the uncertainty of these estimates is not only fundamental to the advancement of carbon cycle science but is also of increasing relevance to national and international policies designed to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (e.g., REDD+). Contemporary approaches to estimating the net carbon balance of tropical forests rely on changes in forest area between two periods, typically derived from satellite data, together with information on average biomass density. These approaches tend to capture losses in biomass due to deforestation (i.e., wholesale stand removals) but are limited in their sensitivity to forest degradation (e.g., selective logging or single-tree removals), which can account for additional biomass losses on the order of 47-75% of deforestation. Furthermore, while satellite-based estimates of forest area loss have been used successfully to estimate associated carbon losses, few such analyses have endeavored to determine the rate of carbon sequestration in growing forests. Here we use 12 years (2003-2014) of pantropical satellite data to quantify net annual changes in the aboveground carbon density of woody vegetation (MgC ha-1yr-1), providing direct, measurement-based evidence that the world's tropical forests are a net carbon source of 425.2 ± 92.0 Tg C yr-1. This net release of carbon consists of losses of 861.7 ± 80.2 Tg C yr-1 and gains of -436.5 ± 31.0 Tg C yr-1 . Gains result from forest growth; losses result from reductions in forest area due to deforestation and from reductions in biomass density within standing forests (degradation), with the latter accounting for 68.9% of overall losses. Our findings advance previous research by providing novel, annual measurements of carbon losses and gains, from forest loss, degradation, and growth, with reduced uncertainty that stems from an unconventional shift in emphasis away from classifications of land area change toward direct estimation of carbon density dynamics.
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Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong
2011-01-01
Background and Aims The ability to simulate plant competition accurately is essential for plant functional type (PFT)-based models used in climate-change studies, yet gaps and uncertainties remain in our understanding of the details of the competition mechanisms and in ecosystem responses at a landscape level. This study examines secondary succession in a temperate deciduous forest in eastern China with the aim of determining if competition between tree types can be explained by differences in leaf ecophysiological traits and growth allometry, and whether ecophysiological traits and habitat spatial configurations among PFTs differentiate their responses to climate change. Methods A temperate deciduous broadleaved forest in eastern China was studied, containing two major vegetation types dominated by Quercus liaotungensis (OAK) and by birch/poplar (Betula platyphylla and Populus davidiana; BIP), respectively. The Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (TESim) suite of models was used to examine carbon and water dynamics using parameters measured at the site, and the model was evaluated against long-term data collected at the site. Key Results Simulations indicated that a higher assimilation rate for the BIP vegetation than OAK led to the former's dominance during early successional stages with relatively low competition. In middle/late succession with intensive competition for below-ground resources, BIP, with its lower drought tolerance/resistance and smaller allocation to leaves/roots, gave way to OAK. At landscape scale, predictions with increased temperature extrapolated from existing weather records resulted in increased average net primary productivity (NPP; +19 %), heterotrophic respiration (+23 %) and net ecosystem carbon balance (+17 %). The BIP vegetation in higher and cooler habitats showed 14 % greater sensitivity to increased temperature than the OAK at lower and warmer locations. Conclusions Drought tolerance/resistance and morphology-related allocation strategy (i.e. more allocation to leaves/roots) played key roles in the competition between the vegetation types. The overall site-average impacts of increased temperature on NPP and carbon stored in plants were found to be positive, despite negative effects of increased respiration and soil water stress, with such impacts being more significant for BIP located in higher and cooler habitats. PMID:21835816
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Steenberg Larsen, Klaus; Ambus, Per; Beier, Claus; Ibrom, Andreas; Ransijn, Johannes; Kappel Schmidt, Inger; Wu, Jian
2013-04-01
In a Danish heathland co-dominated by heather (Calluna vulgaris) and grasses (Deschampsia flexuosa) we simulated realistic future climate scenarios in a full-factorial design of elevated atmospheric CO2 (510 ppm), increased temperatures (0.5-1.5 °Celcius) and intensified summer drought events (4-6 weeks per year). Treatments were initiated in 2005. Using manual chamber techniques, we measured soil respiration (SR), ecosystem respiration (ER) and net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) and determined gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP) as NEE - ER. We also monitored carbon losses in the form of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in leached soil water. The results indicate that across all combinations of treatments with elevated CO2, SR rates increased by 20-30%, whereas GEP rates increased by
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Molecular Friction-Induced Electroosmotic Phenomena in Thin Neutral Nanotubes.
Vuković, Lela; Vokac, Elizabeth; Král, Petr
2014-06-19
We reveal by classical molecular dynamics simulations electroosmotic flows in thin neutral carbon (CNT) and boron nitride (BNT) nanotubes filled with ionic solutions of hydrated monovalent atomic ions. We observe that in (12,12) BNTs filled with single ions in an electric field, the net water velocity increases in the order of Na(+) < K(+) < Cl(-), showing that different ions have different power to drag water in thin nanotubes. However, the effect gradually disappears in wider nanotubes. In (12,12) BNTs containing neutral ionic solutions in electric fields, we observe net water velocities going in the direction of Na(+) for (Na(+), Cl(-)) and in the direction of Cl(-) for (K(+), Cl(-)). We hypothesize that the electroosmotic flows are caused by different strengths of friction between ions with different hydration shells and the nanotube walls.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Proctor, C.; He, Y.
2017-12-01
Deposition of carbon belowground via the root exudation pathway is the net of root-borne efflux and influx processes. For select exudates, root have a remarkable ability to actively recapture lost compounds, suggesting that influx mechanisms regulate exudation. However, roots are not the sole sink for root effluxed carbon. Roots compete with solute sorption and microbial uptake, whom are regulated by a unique set of soil environmental conditions. Peatland soil features stark vertical gradients in their physical, chemical, biological, and hydrological properties, which has downstream implications for the relative competitive ability of each actor in root-soil-microbial interactions. This study developed a single root exudate model using the Barber-Cushman approach to examine the radial accumulation of exudates in simulated peatland soil with vertical gradients. The model simulated efflux, influx, solute diffusion, solute mineralization and solid phase sorption mechanisms as depth dependent on bulk density, porosity, tortuosity, buffer power, temperature, and microbial biomass. Deeper peat soil reduced the porosity that permits solute transport, increased tortuosity which lowered the effective diffusion rate, increased solute-solid sorption, and reduced microbial mineralization of effluxed compounds. Slower mineralization rates were partially juxtaposed by increases in sorption, albeit the net removal of effluxed compounds was lower, leading to a larger amount of exudates to remain in the rhizosphere around deeper roots. Increase in the solid phase, and its subsequent constriction of solute migration, lead to a higher accumulation of effluxed compounds on the rhizoplane, up to 1.23x higher than shallow soil. Subsequently, influx mechanisms captured a larger fraction of effluxed compounds (69.06% at -10cm versus 84.8% at -80 cm), reducing net exudation rates from 0.641 to 0.315 nmol cm-1 hr-1 between -10 and -80cm depths. These results suggest that localized environmental conditions around roots can be a considerable influence on root influx and competition for root exudates. The insights provided by this model help provide a better understanding of exudate regulation in peatlands and the quantity and quality of carbon deposited to the methanogen community.
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Lawrenz, Evelyn; Richardson, Tammi L
2017-12-01
The underwater light field in blackwater environments is strongly skewed toward the red end of the electromagnetic spectrum due to blue light absorption by colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM). Exposure of phytoplankton to full spectrum irradiance occurs only when cells are mixed up to the surface. We studied the potential effects of mixing-induced changes in spectral irradiance on photoacclimation, primary productivity and growth in cultures of the cryptophyte Rhodomonas salina and the diatom Skeletonema costatum. We found that these taxa have very different photoacclimation strategies. While S. costatum showed classical complementary chromatic adaption, R. salina showed inverse chromatic adaptation, a strategy previously unknown in the cryptophytes. Transfer of R. salina to periodic full spectrum light (PFSL) significantly enhanced growth rate (μ) by 1.8 times and primary productivity from 0.88 to 1.35 mg C · (mg Chl -1 ) · h -1 . Overall, R. salina was less dependent on PFSL than was S. costatum, showing higher μ and net primary productivity rates. In the high-CDOM simulation, carbon metabolism of the diatom was impaired, leading to suppression of growth rate, short-term 14 C uptake and net primary production. Upon transfer to PFSL, μ of the diatom increased by up to 3-fold and carbon fixation from 2.4 to 6.0 mg C · (mg Chl -1 ) · h -1 . Thus, a lack of PFSL differentially impairs primarily CO 2 -fixation and/or carbon metabolism, which, in turn, may determine which phytoplankton dominate the community in blackwater habitats and may therefore influence the structure and function of these ecosystems. © 2017 Phycological Society of America.
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Material migration studies with an ITER first wall panel proxy on EAST
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ding, R.; Pitts, R. A.; Borodin, D.; Carpentier, S.; Ding, F.; Gong, X. Z.; Guo, H. Y.; Kirschner, A.; Kocan, M.; Li, J. G.; Luo, G.-N.; Mao, H. M.; Qian, J. P.; Stangeby, P. C.; Wampler, W. R.; Wang, H. Q.; Wang, W. Z.
2015-02-01
The ITER beryllium (Be) first wall (FW) panels are shaped to protect leading edges between neighbouring panels arising from assembly tolerances. This departure from a perfectly cylindrical surface automatically leads to magnetically shadowed regions where eroded Be can be re-deposited, together with co-deposition of tritium fuel. To provide a benchmark for a series of erosion/re-deposition simulation studies performed for the ITER FW panels, dedicated experiments have been performed on the EAST tokamak using a specially designed, instrumented test limiter acting as a proxy for the FW panel geometry. Carbon coated molybdenum plates forming the limiter front surface were exposed to the outer midplane boundary plasma of helium discharges using the new Material and Plasma Evaluation System (MAPES). Net erosion and deposition patterns are estimated using ion beam analysis to measure the carbon layer thickness variation across the surface after exposure. The highest erosion of about 0.8 µm is found near the midplane, where the surface is closest to the plasma separatrix. No net deposition above the measurement detection limit was found on the proxy wall element, even in shadowed regions. The measured 2D surface erosion distribution has been modelled with the 3D Monte Carlo code ERO, using the local plasma parameter measurements together with a diffusive transport assumption. Excellent agreement between the experimentally observed net erosion and the modelled erosion profile has been obtained.
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BioNetSim: a Petri net-based modeling tool for simulations of biochemical processes.
Gao, Junhui; Li, Li; Wu, Xiaolin; Wei, Dong-Qing
2012-03-01
BioNetSim, a Petri net-based software for modeling and simulating biochemistry processes, is developed, whose design and implement are presented in this paper, including logic construction, real-time access to KEGG (Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes), and BioModel database. Furthermore, glycolysis is simulated as an example of its application. BioNetSim is a helpful tool for researchers to download data, model biological network, and simulate complicated biochemistry processes. Gene regulatory networks, metabolic pathways, signaling pathways, and kinetics of cell interaction are all available in BioNetSim, which makes modeling more efficient and effective. Similar to other Petri net-based softwares, BioNetSim does well in graphic application and mathematic construction. Moreover, it shows several powerful predominances. (1) It creates models in database. (2) It realizes the real-time access to KEGG and BioModel and transfers data to Petri net. (3) It provides qualitative analysis, such as computation of constants. (4) It generates graphs for tracing the concentration of every molecule during the simulation processes.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Watts, J. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Du, J.; Zona, D.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Helbig, M.; Sonnentag, O.; Bruhwiler, L.; Kochendorfer, J.; Parmentier, F. J. W.; Humphreys, E.; Nadeau, D.; Miller, C. E.; Sachs, T.; Rinne, J.; Lund, M.; Tagesson, T.; Jackowicz-Korczynski, M.; Ueyama, M.; Aurela, M.; Commane, R.; Natali, S.; Oechel, W. C.
2017-12-01
High latitude warming and changes in hydrology are expected to substantially impact the terrestrial net ecosystem carbon balance, particularly in permafrost affected landscapes. Changing environmental conditions can yield divergent regional responses observed in gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco) of carbon dioxide (CO2), net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and net methane fluxes (CH4). Wetland CH4 emissions are sensitive to climate and permafrost related changes in landscape wetness, which could alter regional carbon sink or source activity. Here we examine a 13-year record (2003-2015) of net carbon budgets and flux components for the Arctic-boreal region (>45°N). We applied an enhanced Terrestrial Carbon Flux (TCF) model developed for satellite remote sensing applications, with input optical-infrared (MODIS) and microwave (AMSR) sensor observations, and reanalysis data. Eddy covariance records from over 34 tower sites were used for model assessments and to identify high latitude landscape differences in CO2 and CH4 response. The TCF model results indicate a respective annual NEE sink of -38 +/- 18 TgC and -722 +/- 60 TgC for tundra (defined by the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map) and boreal ecosystems, without accounting for carbon loss from fire. Annual CH4 emissions are estimated at 7 +/- 0.3 TgC/yr for tundra and 52 +/- 1.7 TgC/yr for boreal wetlands. The carbon flux record indicates a significant (a = 0.05) increase in carbon uptake for the Arctic-boreal region. A net change in annual CH4 emissions was not detected, although local landscapes including some permafrost affected northern boreal wetlands show signs of significant increase. This analysis indicates that continued monitoring of the carbon budget through integration of tower flux measurements, ecosystem models, satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inverse modeling is necessary to identify shifts in landscape carbon exchange and the vulnerability of northern ecosystems to climate change.
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Effects of Enhanced Thaw Depth on the Composition of Arctic Soil Organic Matter Leachate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hutchings, J.; Zhang, X.; Bianchi, T. S.; Schuur, E.; Arellano, A. R.; Liu, Y.
2016-12-01
Pan-Arctic permafrost is increasingly susceptible to thaw due to the disproportionally high rate of temperature change in high latitudes. These soils contain a globally significant quantity of organic carbon that, when thawed, interacts with the modern carbon cycle. Current research has focused on atmospheric carbon fluxes and transport by rivers and streams to continental shelves, but has overlooked the lateral flux of carbon within watershed soils, which is the primary link between terrestrial and riverine ecosystems. Understanding the effects of water movement through permafrost soils on dissolved organic carbon is critical to better modelling of lateral carbon fluxes and interpreting the resulting observed riverine carbon fluxes with applications to investigations of the past, present, and future of the pan-Arctic. We conducted a laboratory leaching experiment using active layer soils from the Eight Mile Lake region of interior Alaska. Cores were sampled into surface and deep sections. Surface sections were subjected to a three-stage leaching process using artificial rain, with cores stored frozen overnight between stages (which crudely simulated freeze-thaw mechanisms). Surface leachates were sampled for analysis and the remainder percolated through deep soils using the same three-staged approach. Measurements of surface and deep leachates were selected to characterize transport-related changes to dissolved organic matter and included dissolved organic carbon, fluorescent dissolved organic matter via excitation emission matrices, and molecular composition via Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry. Primary findings from the experiment include a net retention of 2.4 to 27% of dissolved organic carbon from surface leachates in deep soils, a net release of fluorescent dissolved organic matter from deep soils that was 43 to 106% greater than surface leachates, increased hydrophobicity during stage three of leaching, and the preferential leaching of lignin- and tannin-like formulas from deep soils, consistent with fluorescence measurements.
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Net Carbon Balance for the Brazilian Amazon
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Houghton, R. A.
1998-01-01
The general purpose of this research was to use recent satellite-based estimates of deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia to calculate the net flux of carbon associated with deforestation and subsequent regrowth of secondary forests. We have made such a calculation, in the process comparing two estimates of deforestation and two estimates of biomass for the region. Both estimates were based on the RADAMBRASIL survey. They differed in the equations used to convert wood-volumes to total biomass. The net flux of carbon from changes in land use seems to vary from year to year, perhaps by as much as a factor of 4.
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Greenhouse Gas and Carbon Profile of the U.S. Forest Products Industry Value Chain
2010-01-01
A greenhouse gas and carbon accounting profile was developed for the U.S. forest products industry value chain for 1990 and 2004−2005 by examining net atmospheric fluxes of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) using a variety of methods and data sources. Major GHG emission sources include direct and indirect (from purchased electricity generation) emissions from manufacturing and methane emissions from landfilled products. Forest carbon stocks in forests supplying wood to the industry were found to be stable or increasing. Increases in the annual amounts of carbon removed from the atmosphere and stored in forest products offset about half of the total value chain emissions. Overall net transfers to the atmosphere totaled 91.8 and 103.5 TgCO2-eq. in 1990 and 2005, respectively, although the difference between these net transfers may not be statistically significant. Net transfers were higher in 2005 primarily because additions to carbon stored in forest products were less in 2005. Over this same period, energy-related manufacturing emissions decreased by almost 9% even though forest products output increased by approximately 15%. Several types of avoided emissions were considered separately and were collectively found to be notable relative to net emissions. PMID:20355695
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Reconciling carbon-cycle concepts, terminology, and methodology
F.S. III Chapin; G.M Woodwell; J.T. Randerson; G.M. Lovett; E.B. Rastetter; D.D. Baldocchi; D.A. Clark; M.E. Harmon; D.S. Schimel; Valentini R.; Wirth C.; Aber J.D.; Cole J.J.; Goulden M.L.; Harden J.W.; Heimann M.; Howarth R.W.; Matson P.A.; McGuire A.D.; Melillo J.M.; H.A. Mooney; J.C. Neff; R.A. Houghton; M.L. Pace; M.G. Ryan; S.W. Running; O.E. Sala; W.H. Schlesinger; E. D. Schulze
2005-01-01
Recent projections of climatic change have focused a great deal of scientific and public attention on patterns of carbon (C) cycling as well as its controls, particularly the factors that determine whether an ecosystem is a net source or sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Net ecosystem production (NEP), a central concept in C-cycling research, has been used by...
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Quick, J.C.; Brill, T.
2002-01-01
We observe a 1.3 kg C/net GJ variation of carbon emissions due to inertinite abundance in some commercially available bituminous coal. An additional 0.9 kg C/net GJ variation of carbon emissions is expected due to the extent of coalification through the bituminous rank stages. Each percentage of sulfur in bituminous coal reduces carbon emissions by about 0.08 kg C/net GJ. Other factors, such as mineral content, liptinite abundance and individual macerals, also influence carbon emissions, but their quantitative effect is less certain. The large range of carbon emissions within the bituminous rank class suggests that rank- specific carbon emission factors are provincial rather than global. Although carbon emission factors that better account for this provincial variation might be calculated, we show that the data used for this calculation may vary according to the methods used to sample and analyze coal. Provincial variation of carbon emissions and the use of different coal sampling and analytical methods complicate the verification of national greenhouse gas inventories. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.
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The Importance of Artificial Intelligence for Naval Intelligence Training Simulations
2006-09-01
experimental investigation described later. B. SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE The game-based simulator was created using NetBeans , which is an open source integrated...development environment (IDE) written entirely in Java using the NetBeans Platform. NetBeans is based upon the Java language which contains the...involved within the simulation are conducted in a GUI built within the NetBeans IDE. The opening display allows the user to setup the simulation
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kwiatkowski, Lester; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Ciais, Philippe
2018-04-01
Ocean biogeochemical models are integral components of Earth system models used to project the evolution of the ocean carbon sink, as well as potential changes in the physical and chemical environment of marine ecosystems. In such models the stoichiometry of phytoplankton C:N:P is typically fixed at the Redfield ratio. The observed stoichiometry of phytoplankton, however, has been shown to considerably vary from Redfield values due to plasticity in the expression of phytoplankton cell structures with different elemental compositions. The intrinsic structure of fixed C:N:P models therefore has the potential to bias projections of the marine response to climate change. We assess the importance of variable stoichiometry on 21st century projections of net primary production, food quality, and ocean carbon uptake using the recently developed Pelagic Interactions Scheme for Carbon and Ecosystem Studies Quota (PISCES-QUOTA) ocean biogeochemistry model. The model simulates variable phytoplankton C:N:P stoichiometry and was run under historical and business-as-usual scenario forcing from 1850 to 2100. PISCES-QUOTA projects similar 21st century global net primary production decline (7.7%) to current generation fixed stoichiometry models. Global phytoplankton N and P content or food quality is projected to decline by 1.2% and 6.4% over the 21st century, respectively. The largest reductions in food quality are in the oligotrophic subtropical gyres and Arctic Ocean where declines by the end of the century can exceed 20%. Using the change in the carbon export efficiency in PISCES-QUOTA, we estimate that fixed stoichiometry models may be underestimating 21st century cumulative ocean carbon uptake by 0.5-3.5% (2.0-15.1 PgC).
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Towards 250 m mapping of terrestrial primary productivity over Canada
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gonsamo, A.; Chen, J. M.
2011-12-01
Terrestrial ecosystems are an important part of the climate and global change systems. Their role in climate change and in the global carbon cycle is yet to be well understood. Dataset from satellite earth observation, coupled with numerical models provide the unique tools for monitoring the spatial and temporal dynamics of territorial carbon cycle. The Boreal Ecosystems Productivity Simulator (BEPS) is a remote sensing based approach to quantifying the terrestrial carbon cycle by that gross and net primary productivity (GPP and NPP) and terrestrial carbon sinks and sources expressed as net ecosystem productivity (NEP). We have currently implemented a scheme to map the GPP, NPP and NEP at 250 m for first time over Canada using BEPS model. This is supplemented by improved mapping of land cover and leaf area index (LAI) at 250 m over Canada from MODIS satellite dataset. The results from BEPS are compared with MODIS GPP product and further evaluated with estimated LAI from various sources to evaluate if the results capture the trend in amount of photosynthetic biomass distributions. Final evaluation will be to validate both BEPS and MODIS primary productivity estimates over the Fluxnet sites over Canada. The primary evaluation indicate that BEPS GPP estimates capture the over storey LAI variations over Canada very well compared to MODIS GPP estimates. There is a large offset of MODIS GPP, over-estimating the lower GPP value compared to BEPS GPP estimates. These variations will further be validated based on the measured values from the Fluxnet tower measurements over Canadian. The high resolution GPP (NPP) products at 250 m will further be used to scale the outputs between different ecosystem productivity models, in our case the Canadian carbon budget model of Canadian forest sector CBM-CFS) and the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon model (InTEC).
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Martin, Patrick; Wang, Phillip; Robinson, Antoine; Poole, Lynne; Dragone, Jeffrey; Smyth, Michael; Pratt, Raymond
2011-05-01
Lanthanum carbonate and sevelamer carbonate are noncalcium phosphate binders used to treat hyperphosphatemia in patients with chronic kidney disease. This is the first study to compare phosphate absorption from a standardized meal ingested with a typical clinical dose of these binders. Randomized open-label crossover study. Healthy volunteers were confined to a clinical research center during 4 study periods. Of 31 volunteers randomly assigned, 19 completed all treatments and 18 were analyzed in the pharmacodynamic set (1 was excluded because of vomiting). Participants were assigned in random order to meal alone, meal plus lanthanum carbonate (1 tablet containing 1,000 mg of elemental lanthanum), and meal plus sevelamer carbonate (three 800-mg tablets). The gastrointestinal tract was cleared, the meal was ingested (± treatment), and rectal effluent was collected. In a fourth period, volunteers repeated the study procedures while fasting. The primary end point, net phosphate absorption, was analyzed using a mixed-effect linear model. Phosphorus content of effluent and duplicate meal samples were measured using inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectroscopy. The standard meal contained ∼375 mg of phosphate, 75% of which was absorbed (net absorption, 281.7 ± 14.1 mg [adjusted mean ± standard error]). Lanthanum carbonate decreased net phosphate absorption by 45% (net absorption, 156.0 ± 14.2 mg) compared with 21% (net absorption, 221.8 ± 14.1 mg) for sevelamer carbonate (P < 0.001). Lanthanum carbonate bound 135.1 ± 12.3 mg of phosphate, whereas sevelamer carbonate bound 63.2 ± 12.3 mg, a 71.9-mg difference (95% CI, 40.0-103.8; P < 0.001). Per tablet, this equates to 135 mg of phosphate bound with lanthanum carbonate versus 21 mg with sevelamer carbonate. A single-dose study. In healthy volunteers, 1,000 mg of lanthanum carbonate decreased phosphate absorption by 45% compared with a 21% decrease with 2,400 mg of sevelamer carbonate. Copyright © 2011 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Global radiative effects of solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, Yaoxian; Unger, Nadine; Storelvmo, Trude; Harper, Kandice; Zheng, Yiqi; Heyes, Chris
2018-04-01
We apply the NCAR CAM5-Chem global aerosol-climate model to quantify the net global radiative effects of black and organic carbon aerosols from global and Indian solid fuel cookstove emissions for the year 2010. Our assessment accounts for the direct radiative effects, changes to cloud albedo and lifetime (aerosol indirect effect, AIE), impacts on clouds via the vertical temperature profile (semi-direct effect, SDE) and changes in the surface albedo of snow and ice (surface albedo effect). In addition, we provide the first estimate of household solid fuel black carbon emission effects on ice clouds. Anthropogenic emissions are from the IIASA GAINS ECLIPSE V5a inventory. A global dataset of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) measurements from surface sites and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from AERONET is used to evaluate the model skill. Compared with observations, the model successfully reproduces the spatial patterns of atmospheric BC and OA concentrations, and agrees with measurements to within a factor of 2. Globally, the simulated AOD agrees well with observations, with a normalized mean bias close to zero. However, the model tends to underestimate AOD over India and China by ˜ 19 ± 4 % but overestimate it over Africa by ˜ 25 ± 11 % (± represents modeled temporal standard deviations for n = 5 run years). Without BC serving as ice nuclei (IN), global and Indian solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions have net global cooling radiative effects of -141 ± 4 mW m-2 and -12 ± 4 mW m-2, respectively (± represents modeled temporal standard deviations for n = 5 run years). The net radiative impacts are dominated by the AIE and SDE mechanisms, which originate from enhanced cloud condensation nuclei concentrations for the formation of liquid and mixed-phase clouds, and a suppression of convective transport of water vapor from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere that in turn leads to reduced ice cloud formation. When BC is allowed to behave as a source of IN, the net global radiative impacts of the global and Indian solid fuel cookstove emissions range from -275 to +154 mW m-2 and -33 to +24 mW m-2, with globally averaged values of -59 ± 215 and 0.3 ± 29 mW m-2, respectively. Here, the uncertainty range is based on sensitivity simulations that alter the maximum freezing efficiency of BC across a plausible range: 0.01, 0.05 and 0.1. BC-ice cloud interactions lead to substantial increases in high cloud (< 500 hPa) fractions. Thus, the net sign of the impacts of carbonaceous aerosols from solid fuel cookstoves on global climate (warming or cooling) remains ambiguous until improved constraints on BC interactions with mixed-phase and ice clouds are available.
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Improved assessment of gross and net primary productivity of Canada's landmass
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M.; Price, David T.; Kurz, Werner A.; Liu, Jane; Boisvenue, Céline; Hember, Robbie A.; Wu, Chaoyang; Chang, Kuo-Hsien
2013-12-01
assess Canada's gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) using boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) at 250 m spatial resolution with improved input parameter and driver fields and phenology and nutrient release parameterization schemes. BEPS is a process-based two-leaf enzyme kinetic terrestrial ecosystem model designed to simulate energy, water, and carbon (C) fluxes using spatial data sets of meteorology, remotely sensed land surface variables, soil properties, and photosynthesis and respiration rate parameters. Two improved key land surface variables, leaf area index (LAI) and land cover type, are derived at 250 m from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor. For diagnostic error assessment, we use nine forest flux tower sites where all measured C flux, meteorology, and ancillary data sets are available. The errors due to input drivers and parameters are then independently corrected for Canada-wide GPP and NPP simulations. The optimized LAI use, for example, reduced the absolute bias in GPP from 20.7% to 1.1% for hourly BEPS simulations. Following the error diagnostics and corrections, daily GPP and NPP are simulated over Canada at 250 m spatial resolution, the highest resolution simulation yet for the country or any other comparable region. Total NPP (GPP) for Canada's land area was 1.27 (2.68) Pg C for 2008, with forests contributing 1.02 (2.2) Pg C. The annual comparisons between measured and simulated GPP show that the mean differences are not statistically significant (p > 0.05, paired t test). The main BEPS simulation error sources are from the driver fields.
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Li, Xue Jian; Mao, Fang Jie; Du, Hua Qiang; Zhou, Guo Mo; Xu, Xiao Jun; Li, Ping Heng; Liu, Yu Li; Cui, Lu
2016-12-01
LAI is one of the most important observation data in the research of carbon cycle of forest ecosystem, and it is also an important parameter to drive process-based ecosystem model. The Moso bamboo forest (MBF) and Lei bamboo forest (LBF) were selected as the study targets. Firstly, the MODIS LAI time series data during 2014-2015 was assimilated with Dual Ensemble Kalman Filter method. Secondly, the high quality assimilated MBF LAI and LBF LAI were used as input dataset to drive BEPS model for simulating the gross primary productivity (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and total ecosystem respiration (TER) of the two types of bamboo forest ecosystem, respectively. The modeled carbon fluxes were evaluated by the observed carbon fluxes data, and the effects of different quality LAI inputs on carbon cycle simulation were also studied. The LAI assimilated using Dual Ensemble Kalman Filter of MBF and LBF were significantly correlated with the observed LAI, with high R 2 of 0.81 and 0.91 respectively, and lower RMSE and absolute bias, which represented the great improvement of the accuracy of MODIS LAI products. With the driving of assimilated LAI, the modeled GPP, NEE, and TER were also highly correlated with the flux observation data, with the R 2 of 0.66, 0.47, and 0.64 for MBF, respectively, and 0.66, 0.45, and 0.73 for LBF, respectively. The accuracy of carbon fluxes modeled with assimilated LAI was higher than that acquired by the locally adjusted cubic-spline capping method, in which, the accuracy of mo-deled NEE for MBF and LBF increased by 11.2% and 11.8% at the most degrees, respectively.
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Assessing net community production in a glaciated Alaskan fjord
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reisdorph, S. C.; Mathis, J. T.
2015-09-01
The impact of deglaciation in Glacier Bay has been observed to seasonally influence the biogeochemistry of this marine system. The influence from surrounding glaciers, particularly tidewater glaciers, has the potential to affect the efficiency and structure of the marine food web within Glacier Bay. To assess the magnitude and the spatial and temporal variability in net community production in a glaciated fjord, we measured dissolved inorganic carbon, inorganic macronutrients, dissolved oxygen, and particulate organic carbon between July 2011 and July 2012 in Glacier Bay, Alaska. High net community production rates were observed across the bay (~ 54 to ~ 81 mmol C m-2 d-1) between the summer and fall of 2011. However, between the fall and winter, as well as between the winter and spring of 2012, air-sea fluxes of carbon dioxide and organic matter respiration made net community production rates negative across most of the bay as inorganic carbon and macronutrient concentrations returned to pre-bloom levels. The highest organic carbon production occurred within the west arm between the summer and fall of 2011 with ~ 4.5 × 105 kg C d-1. Bay-wide, there was carbon production of ~ 9.2 × 105 g C d-1 between the summer and fall. Respiration and air-sea gas exchange were the dominant drivers of carbon chemistry between the fall and winter of 2012. The substantial spatial and temporal variability in our net community production estimates may reflect glacial influences within the bay, as meltwater is depleted in macronutrients relative to marine waters entering from the Gulf of Alaska in the middle and lower parts of the bay. Further glacial retreat will likely lead to additional modifications in the carbon biogeochemistry of Glacier Bay, with unknown consequences for the local marine food web, which includes many species of marine mammals.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Muehllehner, Nancy; Langdon, Chris; Venti, Alyson; Kadko, David
2016-05-01
Ocean acidification is projected to lower the Ωar of reefal waters by 0.3-0.4 units by the end of century, making it more difficult for calcifying organisms to secrete calcium carbonate while at the same time making the environment more favorable for abiotic and biotic dissolution of the reefal framework. There is great interest in being able to project the point in time when coral reefs will cross the tipping point between being net depositional to net erosional in terms of their carbonate budgets. Periodic in situ assessments of the balance between carbonate production and dissolution that spans seasonal time scales may prove useful in monitoring and formulating projections of the impact of ocean acidification on reefal carbonate production. This study represents the first broad-scale geochemical survey of the rates of net community production (NCP) and net community calcification (NCC) across the Florida Reef Tract (FRT). Surveys were performed at approximately quarterly intervals in 2009-2010 across seven onshore-offshore transects spanning the upper, middle, and lower Florida Keys. Averaged across the FRT, the rates of NCP and NCC were positive during the spring/summer at 62 ± 7 and 17 ± 2 mmol m-2 d-1, respectively, and negative during the fall/winter at -33 ± 6 and -7 ± 2 mmol m-2 d-1. The most significant finding of the study was that the northernmost reef is already net erosional (-1.1 ± 0.4 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1) and midreefs to the south were net depositional on an annual basis (0.4 ± 0.1 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1) but erosional during the fall and winter. Only the two southernmost reefs were net depositional year-round. These results indicate that parts of the FRT have already crossed the tipping point for carbonate production and other parts are getting close.
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Gao, Li; Dong, Ting-Ting; Wang, Yu-Qing; Yan, Zhi-Jian; Baoyin, Tao-ge-tao; Wang, Hui; Dai, Ya-Ting
2014-08-01
Characteristics of ecosystem carbon exchange and its impact factors in Artemisia ordosica shrubland in 2011 (low precipitation) and 2012 (high precipitation), Ordos Plateau, were studied using eddy covariance methods. The results showed that the diurnal dynamics of ecosystem carbon exchange could be expressed as single-peak and double-peak curves in the two different precipitation years. In 2011, three carbon absorption peaks and three carbon release peaks of ecosystem carbon exchange presented in the growing season. In 2012, four carbon absorption peaks and one carbon release peak appeared in the growing season. The A. ordosica shrubland was a net carbon sink from June to September and a carbon source in October in 2011. In 2012, A. ordosica shrubland was a net carbon sink in the whole growing season. The amount of carbon fixed by A. ordosica shrubland in the growing season in 2012 was 268.90 mg CO2 x m(-2) x s(-1) higher than that in 2011. The ecosystem carbon exchange of A. ordosica shrubland was controlled by PAR (photosynthetically active radiation) on the day scale, and affected by both abiotic (precipitation and soil water content) and biotic (aboveground net primary, productivity) factors on the growing season scale.
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Dessureault, Pierre-Luc; Boucher, Jean-François; Tremblay, Pascal; Bouchard, Sylvie; Villeneuve, Claude
2015-07-01
Hydropower in boreal conditions is generally considered the energy source emitting the least greenhouse gas per kilowatt-hour during its life cycle. The purpose of this study was to assess the relative contribution of the land-use change on the modification of the carbon sinks and sources following the flooding of upland forested territories to create the Eastmain-1 hydroelectric reservoir in Quebec's boreal forest using Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector. Results suggest a carbon sink loss after 100 yr of 300,000 ± 100,000 Mg CO equivalents (COe). A wildfire sensitivity analysis revealed that the ecosystem would have acted as a carbon sink as long as <75% of the territory had burned over the 100-yr-long period. Our long-term net carbon flux estimate resulted in emissions of 4 ± 2 g COe kWh as a contribution to the carbon footprint calculation, one-eighth what was obtained in a recent study that used less precise and less sensitive estimates. Consequently, this study significantly reduces the reported net carbon footprint of this reservoir and reveals how negligible the relative contribution of the land-use change in upland forests to the total net carbon footprint of a hydroelectric reservoir in the boreal zone can be. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.
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Hydrological and Climate Controls on Hyporheic Contributions to River Net Ecosystem Productivity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Newcomer, M. E.; Hubbard, S. S.; Fleckenstein, J. H.; Maier, U.; Schmidt, C.; Laube, G.; Chen, N.; Ulrich, C.; Dwivedi, D.; Steefel, C. I.; Rubin, Y.
2016-12-01
Hyporheic zone contributions to river net ecosystem productivity (NEP) can represent a substantial source or sink for organic and inorganic carbon (C). Hyporheic zone processes are estimated to vary with network location as a function of river-aquifer interactions as well as with climatic factors supporting riverbed gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration. Even though hyporheic zone NEP is hypothesized to be a significant budgetary component to river-aquifer biogeochemical cycling, models of river NEP often parameterize hyporheic zone contributions as a space-time constant input of CO2 to rivers, leading to overestimation of hyporheic zone NEP and underestimation of C storage. This assumption is problematic during the summer growing season, when GPP is largest and C is stored in surface and subsurface biomass. We investigated the dynamic role of hyporheic zone NEP using the MIN3P flow and reactive transport model with surface water GPP and ecosystem respiration simulated as a function of light, depth, temperature, pH, and atmospheric CO2. We simulated hyporheic zone NEP for low-order and high-order streams, which collectively represent a range of characteristic flow paths and subsurface residence times. Downscaled climate predictions of temperature and atmospheric CO2 representing carbon emission futures were used to force the models and to compare future and current hyporheic zone NEP. Our results show that river-aquifer flow conditions determine the relative role of the river as either a store or sink of C through direct contributions of O2 and dissolved organic content from river GPP. Modeled results show that high discharge, high order rivers are net stores of CO2 from the atmosphere; however this is dependent on perturbation events that allow stored C from summer GPP to be released (i.e. rising water tables during winter storms). Lacking a perturbation event, C remains in pore-water storage as dissolved CO2 and biomass. Conversely, low-discharge mountainous streams with continuous hyporheic zone flow represent a net source of CO2, with future temperature rises stimulating additional heterotrophic activity. Our work contributes to a better understanding of how river and hyporheic zone processes significantly influence biogeochemical cycling under changing climate conditions.
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Estimating carbon sequestration in the piedmont ecoregion of the United States from 1971 to 2010
Liu, Jinxun; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Heath, Linda S.; Tan, Zhengxi; Wilson, Tamara; Sherba, Jason T.; Zhou, Decheng
2016-01-01
Background: Human activities have diverse and profound impacts on ecosystem carbon cycles. The Piedmont ecoregion in the eastern United States has undergone significant land use and land cover change in the past few decades. The purpose of this study was to use newly available land use and land cover change data to quantify carbon changes within the ecoregion. Land use and land cover change data (60-m spatial resolution) derived from sequential remotely sensed Landsat imagery were used to generate 960-m resolution land cover change maps for the Piedmont ecoregion. These maps were used in the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) to simulate ecosystem carbon stock and flux changes from 1971 to 2010. Results: Results show that land use change, especially urbanization and forest harvest had significant impacts on carbon sources and sinks. From 1971 to 2010, forest ecosystems sequestered 0.25 Mg C ha−1 yr−1, while agricultural ecosystems sequestered 0.03 Mg C ha−1 yr−1. The total ecosystem C stock increased from 2271 Tg C in 1971 to 2402 Tg C in 2010, with an annual average increase of 3.3 Tg C yr−1. Conclusions: Terrestrial lands in the Piedmont ecoregion were estimated to be weak net carbon sink during the study period. The major factors contributing to the carbon sink were forest growth and afforestation; the major factors contributing to terrestrial emissions were human induced land cover change, especially urbanization and forest harvest. An additional amount of carbon continues to be stored in harvested wood products. If this pool were included the carbon sink would be stronger. Keywords: Land-use change, Carbon change, Piedmont ecoregion, IBIS model
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A representation of the phosphorus cycle for ORCHIDEE (revision 4520)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goll, Daniel S.; Vuichard, Nicolas; Maignan, Fabienne; Jornet-Puig, Albert; Sardans, Jordi; Violette, Aurelie; Peng, Shushi; Sun, Yan; Kvakic, Marko; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Guenet, Bertrand; Zaehle, Soenke; Penuelas, Josep; Janssens, Ivan; Ciais, Philippe
2017-10-01
Land surface models rarely incorporate the terrestrial phosphorus cycle and its interactions with the carbon cycle, despite the extensive scientific debate about the importance of nitrogen and phosphorus supply for future land carbon uptake. We describe a representation of the terrestrial phosphorus cycle for the ORCHIDEE land surface model, and evaluate it with data from nutrient manipulation experiments along a soil formation chronosequence in Hawaii. ORCHIDEE accounts for the influence of the nutritional state of vegetation on tissue nutrient concentrations, photosynthesis, plant growth, biomass allocation, biochemical (phosphatase-mediated) mineralization, and biological nitrogen fixation. Changes in the nutrient content (quality) of litter affect the carbon use efficiency of decomposition and in return the nutrient availability to vegetation. The model explicitly accounts for root zone depletion of phosphorus as a function of root phosphorus uptake and phosphorus transport from the soil to the root surface. The model captures the observed differences in the foliage stoichiometry of vegetation between an early (300-year) and a late (4.1 Myr) stage of soil development. The contrasting sensitivities of net primary productivity to the addition of either nitrogen, phosphorus, or both among sites are in general reproduced by the model. As observed, the model simulates a preferential stimulation of leaf level productivity when nitrogen stress is alleviated, while leaf level productivity and leaf area index are stimulated equally when phosphorus stress is alleviated. The nutrient use efficiencies in the model are lower than observed primarily due to biases in the nutrient content and turnover of woody biomass. We conclude that ORCHIDEE is able to reproduce the shift from nitrogen to phosphorus limited net primary productivity along the soil development chronosequence, as well as the contrasting responses of net primary productivity to nutrient addition.
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A Multi-scale Approach for CO2 Accounting and Risk Analysis in CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery Sites
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dai, Z.; Viswanathan, H. S.; Middleton, R. S.; Pan, F.; Ampomah, W.; Yang, C.; Jia, W.; Lee, S. Y.; McPherson, B. J. O. L.; Grigg, R.; White, M. D.
2015-12-01
Using carbon dioxide in enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) is a promising technology for emissions management because CO2-EOR can dramatically reduce carbon sequestration costs in the absence of greenhouse gas emissions policies that include incentives for carbon capture and storage. This study develops a multi-scale approach to perform CO2 accounting and risk analysis for understanding CO2 storage potential within an EOR environment at the Farnsworth Unit of the Anadarko Basin in northern Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil-water flow and transport in the Marrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major risk metrics: CO2 injection rate, CO2 first breakthrough time, CO2 production rate, cumulative net CO2 storage, cumulative oil and CH4 production, and water injection and production rates. A global sensitivity analysis indicates that reservoir permeability, porosity, and thickness are the major intrinsic reservoir parameters that control net CO2 injection/storage and oil/CH4 recovery rates. The well spacing (the distance between the injection and production wells) and the sequence of alternating CO2 and water injection are the major operational parameters for designing an effective five-spot CO2-EOR pattern. The response surface analysis shows that net CO2 injection rate increases with the increasing reservoir thickness, permeability, and porosity. The oil/CH4 production rates are positively correlated to reservoir permeability, porosity and thickness, but negatively correlated to the initial water saturation. The mean and confidence intervals are estimated for quantifying the uncertainty ranges of the risk metrics. The results from this study provide useful insights for understanding the CO2 storage potential and the corresponding risks of commercial-scale CO2-EOR fields.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Quesada, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Robertson, Eddy; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie
2018-06-01
Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by ~49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust +4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth’s greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC.
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Carbon cycling under 300 years of land use change: importance of the secondary vegetation sink
Shevliakova, Elena; Pacala, Stephen W.; Malyshev, Sergey; Hurtt, George C.; Milly, P.C.D.; Caspersen, John P.; Sentman, Lori T.; Fisk, Justin P.; Wirth, Christian; Crevoisier, Cyril
2009-01-01
We have developed a dynamic land model (LM3V) able to simulate ecosystem dynamics and exchanges of water, energy, and CO2 between land and atmosphere. LM3V is specifically designed to address the consequences of land use and land management changes including cropland and pasture dynamics, shifting cultivation, logging, fire, and resulting patterns of secondary regrowth. Here we analyze the behavior of LM3V, forced with the output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric model AM2, observed precipitation data, and four historic scenarios of land use change for 1700-2000. Our analysis suggests a net terrestrial carbon source due to land use activities from 1.1 to 1.3 GtC/a during the 1990s, where the range is due to the difference in the historic cropland distribution. This magnitude is substantially smaller than previous estimates from other models, largely due to our estimates of a secondary vegetation sink of 0.35 to 0.6 GtC/a in the 1990s and decelerating agricultural land clearing since the 1960s. For the 1990s, our estimates for the pastures' carbon flux vary from a source of 0.37 to a sink of 0.15 GtC/a, and for the croplands our model shows a carbon source of 0.6 to 0.9 GtC/a. Our process-based model suggests a smaller net deforestation source than earlier bookkeeping models because it accounts for decelerated net conversion of primary forest to agriculture and for stronger secondary vegetation regrowth in tropical regions. The overall uncertainty is likely to be higher than the range reported here because of uncertainty in the biomass recovery under changing ambient conditions, including atmospheric CO2 concentration, nutrients availability, and climate. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jochum, M.; Peacock, S.; Moore, J. K.; Lindsay, K. T.
2009-12-01
A global general circulation model coupled to an ocean ecosystem model is used to quantify the response of carbon fluxes and climate to changes in orbital forcing. Compared to the present-day simulation, the simulation with the Earth's orbital parameters from 115,000 years ago features significantly cooler northern high latitudes, but only moderately cooler southern high latitudes. This asymmetry is explained by a 30% reduction of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that is caused by an increased Arctic sea-ice export and a resulting freshening of the North Atlantic. The strong northern high-latitude cooling and the direct insolation induced tropical warming lead to global shifts in precipitation and winds to the order of 10-20%. These climate shifts lead to regional differences in air-sea carbon fluxes of the same order. However, the differences in global net carbon fluxes are insignificant. This surprising result is due to several effects, two of which stand out: Firstly, colder sea surface temperature leads to a more effective solubility pump but also to increased sea-ice concentration which blocks air-sea exchange; and secondly, the weakening of Southern Ocean winds, which is predicted by some idealized studies, is small compared to its interannual variability.
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PetriScape - A plugin for discrete Petri net simulations in Cytoscape.
Almeida, Diogo; Azevedo, Vasco; Silva, Artur; Baumbach, Jan
2016-06-04
Systems biology plays a central role for biological network analysis in the post-genomic era. Cytoscape is the standard bioinformatics tool offering the community an extensible platform for computational analysis of the emerging cellular network together with experimental omics data sets. However, only few apps/plugins/tools are available for simulating network dynamics in Cytoscape 3. Many approaches of varying complexity exist but none of them have been integrated into Cytoscape as app/plugin yet. Here, we introduce PetriScape, the first Petri net simulator for Cytoscape. Although discrete Petri nets are quite simplistic models, they are capable of modeling global network properties and simulating their behaviour. In addition, they are easily understood and well visualizable. PetriScape comes with the following main functionalities: (1) import of biological networks in SBML format, (2) conversion into a Petri net, (3) visualization as Petri net, and (4) simulation and visualization of the token flow in Cytoscape. PetriScape is the first Cytoscape plugin for Petri nets. It allows a straightforward Petri net model creation, simulation and visualization with Cytoscape, providing clues about the activity of key components in biological networks.
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PetriScape - A plugin for discrete Petri net simulations in Cytoscape.
Almeida, Diogo; Azevedo, Vasco; Silva, Artur; Baumbach, Jan
2016-03-01
Systems biology plays a central role for biological network analysis in the post-genomic era. Cytoscape is the standard bioinformatics tool offering the community an extensible platform for computational analysis of the emerging cellular network together with experimental omics data sets. However, only few apps/plugins/tools are available for simulating network dynamics in Cytoscape 3. Many approaches of varying complexity exist but none of them have been integrated into Cytoscape as app/plugin yet. Here, we introduce PetriScape, the first Petri net simulator for Cytoscape. Although discrete Petri nets are quite simplistic models, they are capable of modeling global network properties and simulating their behaviour. In addition, they are easily understood and well visualizable. PetriScape comes with the following main functionalities: (1) import of biological networks in SBML format, (2) conversion into a Petri net, (3) visualization as Petri net, and (4) simulation and visualization of the token flow in Cytoscape. PetriScape is the first Cytoscape plugin for Petri nets. It allows a straightforward Petri net model creation, simulation and visualization with Cytoscape, providing clues about the activity of key components in biological networks.
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NetMOD version 1.0 user's manual
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Merchant, Bion John
2014-01-01
NetMOD (Network Monitoring for Optimal Detection) is a Java-based software package for conducting simulation of seismic networks. Specifically, NetMOD simulates the detection capabilities of seismic monitoring networks. Network simulations have long been used to study network resilience to station outages and to determine where additional stations are needed to reduce monitoring thresholds. NetMOD makes use of geophysical models to determine the source characteristics, signal attenuation along the path between the source and station, and the performance and noise properties of the station. These geophysical models are combined to simulate the relative amplitudes of signal and noise that are observed atmore » each of the stations. From these signal-to-noise ratios (SNR), the probability of detection can be computed given a detection threshold. This manual describes how to configure and operate NetMOD to perform seismic detection simulations. In addition, NetMOD is distributed with a simulation dataset for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) International Monitoring System (IMS) seismic network for the purpose of demonstrating NetMOD's capabilities and providing user training. The tutorial sections of this manual use this dataset when describing how to perform the steps involved when running a simulation.« less
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Lu, Fei; Wang, Xiaoke; Han, Bing; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Duan, Xiaonan; Zheng, Hua
2010-04-01
Based on the carbon-nitrogen cycles and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and emission processes related to straw return and burning, a compound greenhouse gas budget model, the "Straw Return and Burning Model" (SRBM), was constructed to estimate the net mitigation potential of straw return to the soil in China. As a full GHG budget model, the SRBM addressed the following five processes: (1) soil carbon sequestration, (2) mitigation of synthetic N fertilizer substitution, (3) methane emission from rice paddies, (4) additional fossil fuel use for straw return, and (5) CH4 and N2O emissions from straw burning in the fields. Two comparable scenarios were created to reflect different degrees of implementation for straw return and straw burning. With GHG emissions and mitigation effects of the five processes converted into global warming potential (GWP), the net GHG mitigation was estimated. We concluded that (1) when the full greenhouse gas budget is considered, the net mitigation potential of straw return differs from that when soil carbon sequestration is considered alone; (2) implementation of straw return across a larger area of cropland in 10 provinces (i.e., Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan) will increase net GHG emission; (3) if straw return is promoted as a feasible mitigation measure in the remaining provinces, the total net mitigation potential before soil organic carbon (SOC) saturation will be 71.89 Tg CO2 equivalent (eqv)/yr, which is equivalent to 1.733% of the annual carbon emission from fossil fuel use in China in 2003; (4) after SOC saturation, only 13 of 21 provinces retain a relatively small but permanent net mitigation potential, while in the others the net GHG mitigation potential will gradually diminish; and (5) the major obstacle to the feasibility or permanence of straw return as a mitigation measure is the increased CH4 emission from rice paddies. The paper also suggests that comparable scenarios in which all the related carbon-nitrogen cycles are taken into account be created to estimate the mitigation potentials of organic wastes in different utilizations and treatments.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dungan, J. L.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Michaelis, A.; Milesi, C.; Ichii, K.; Nemani, R. R.
2009-12-01
In support of NACP, we are conducting an ensemble modeling exercise using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) to evaluate uncertainties among ecosystem models, satellite datasets, and in-situ measurements. The models used in the experiment include public-domain versions of Biome-BGC, LPJ, TOPS-BGC, and CASA, driven by a consistent set of climate fields for North America at 8km resolution and daily/monthly time steps over the period of 1982-2006. The reference datasets include MODIS Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Net Primary Production (NPP) products, Fluxnet measurements, and other observational data. The simulation results and the reference datasets are consistently processed and systematically compared in the climate (temperature-precipitation) space; in particular, an alternative to the Taylor diagram is developed to facilitate model-data intercomparisons in multi-dimensional space. The key findings of this study indicate that: the simulated GPP/NPP fluxes are in general agreement with observations over forests, but are biased low (underestimated) over non-forest types; large uncertainties of biomass and soil carbon stocks are found among the models (and reference datasets), often induced by seemingly “small” differences in model parameters and implementation details; the simulated Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) mainly responds to non-respiratory disturbances (e.g. fire) in the models and therefore is difficult to compare with flux data; and the seasonality and interannual variability of NEP varies significantly among models and reference datasets. These findings highlight the problem inherent in relying on only one modeling approach to map surface carbon fluxes and emphasize the pressing necessity of expanded and enhanced monitoring systems to narrow critical structural and parametrical uncertainties among ecosystem models.
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Effects of hydrostatic pressure on microbial alteration of sinking fecal pellets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tamburini, Christian; Goutx, Madeleine; Guigue, Catherine; Garel, Marc; Lefèvre, Dominique; Charrière, Bruno; Sempéré, Richard; Pepa, Stéphane; Peterson, Michael L.; Wakeham, Stuart; Lee, Cindy
2009-08-01
We used a new experimental device called PASS (PArticle Sinking Simulator) during MedFlux to simulate changes in in situ hydrostatic pressure that particles experience sinking from mesopelagic to bathypelagic depths. Particles, largely fecal pellets, were collected at 200 m using a settling velocity NetTrap (SV NetTrap) in Ligurian Sea in April 2006 and incubated in high-pressure bottles (HPBs) of the PASS system under both atmospheric and continuously increasing pressure conditions, simulating the pressure change experienced at a sinking rate of 200 m d -1. Chemical changes over time were evaluated by measuring particulate organic carbon (POC), carbohydrates, transparent exopolymer particles (TEP), amino acids, lipids, and chloropigments, as well as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved carbohydrates. Microbial changes were evaluated microscopically, using diamidinophenylindole (DAPI) stain for total cell counts and catalyzed reporter deposition-fluorescence in situ hybridization (CARD-FISH) for phylogenetic distinctions. Concentrations (normalized to POC) of particulate chloropigments, carbohydrates and TEP decreased under both sets of incubation conditions, although less under the increasing pressure regime than under atmospheric conditions. By contrast, dissolved carbohydrates (normalized to DOC) were higher after incubation and significantly higher under atmospheric conditions, suggesting they were produced at the expense of the particulate fraction. POC-normalized particulate wax/steryl esters increased only under pressure, suggesting biochemical responses of prokaryotes to the increasing pressure regime. The prokaryotic community initially consisted of 43% Bacteria, 12% Crenarchaea and 11% Euryarchaea. After incubation, Bacteria dominated (˜90%) the prokaryote community in all cases, with γ- Proteobacteria comprising the greatest fraction, followed by the Cytophaga-Flavobacter cluster and α -Proteobacteria group. Using the PASS system, we obtained chemical and microbial evidence that degradation by prokaryotes associated with fecal pellets sinking through mesopelagic waters is limited by the increasing pressure they experience.
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Sierra, C.A.; Loescher, H.W.; Harmon, M.E.; Richardson, A.D.; Hollinger, D.Y.; Perakis, S.S.
2009-01-01
Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed ?? 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results also show that the variation of annual carbon fluxes poses an important challenge in our ability to determine whether an ecosystem is a source, a sink, or is neutral in regard to CO2 at longer timescales. In simulations where climate change negatively affected ecosystem carbon stores, there was a 20% chance of committing Type II error, even with 20 years of sequential data. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.
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Coral-algae metabolism and diurnal changes in the CO2-carbonate system of bulk sea water.
Jokiel, Paul L; Jury, Christopher P; Rodgers, Ku'ulei S
2014-01-01
Precise measurements were conducted in continuous flow seawater mesocosms located in full sunlight that compared metabolic response of coral, coral-macroalgae and macroalgae systems over a diurnal cycle. Irradiance controlled net photosynthesis (P net), which in turn drove net calcification (G net), and altered pH. P net exerted the dominant control on [CO3 (2-)] and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) over the diel cycle. Dark calcification rate decreased after sunset, reaching zero near midnight followed by an increasing rate that peaked at 03:00 h. Changes in Ωarag and pH lagged behind G net throughout the daily cycle by two or more hours. The flux rate P net was the primary driver of calcification. Daytime coral metabolism rapidly removes dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the bulk seawater and photosynthesis provides the energy that drives G net while increasing the bulk water pH. These relationships result in a correlation between G net and Ωarag, with Ωarag as the dependent variable. High rates of H(+) efflux continued for several hours following mid-day peak G net suggesting that corals have difficulty in shedding waste protons as described by the Proton Flux Hypothesis. DIC flux (uptake) followed P net and G net and dropped off rapidly following peak P net and peak G net indicating that corals can cope more effectively with the problem of limited DIC supply compared to the problem of eliminating H(+). Over a 24 h period the plot of total alkalinity (AT ) versus DIC as well as the plot of G net versus Ωarag revealed a circular hysteresis pattern over the diel cycle in the coral and coral-algae mesocosms, but not the macroalgae mesocosm. Presence of macroalgae did not change G net of the corals, but altered the relationship between Ωarag and G net. Predictive models of how future global changes will effect coral growth that are based on oceanic Ωarag must include the influence of future localized P net on G net and changes in rate of reef carbonate dissolution. The correlation between Ωarag and G net over the diel cycle is simply the response of the CO2-carbonate system to increased pH as photosynthesis shifts the equilibria and increases the [CO3 (2-)] relative to the other DIC components of [HCO3 (-)] and [CO2]. Therefore Ωarag closely tracked pH as an effect of changes in P net, which also drove changes in G net. Measurements of DIC flux and H(+) flux are far more useful than concentrations in describing coral metabolism dynamics. Coral reefs are systems that exist in constant disequilibrium with the water column.
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CARBON STORAGE AND FLUXES IN PONDEROSA PINE AT DIFFERENT SUCCESSIONAL STAGES
We compared carbon storage and fluxes in young and old ponderosa pine stands in Oregon, including plant and soil storage, net primary productivity, respiration fluxes, and eddy flux estimates of net ecosystem exchange. The young site (Y site) was previously an old-growth pondero...
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Biopathways representation and simulation on hybrid functional petri net.
Matsuno, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Yukiko; Aoshima, Hitoshi; Doi, Atsushi; Matsui, Mika; Miyano, Satoru
2011-01-01
The following two matters should be resolved in order for biosimulation tools to be accepted by users in biology/medicine: (1) remove issues which are irrelevant to biological importance, and (2) allow users to represent biopathways intuitively and understand/manage easily the details of representation and simulation mechanism. From these criteria, we firstly define a novel notion of Petri net called Hybrid Functional Petri Net (HFPN). Then, we introduce a software tool, Genomic Object Net, for representing and simulating biopathways, which we have developed by employing the architecture of HFPN. In order to show the usefulness of Genomic Object Net for representing and simulating biopathways, we show two HFPN representations of gene regulation mechanisms of Drosophila melanogaster (fruit fly) circadian rhythm and apoptosis induced by Fas ligand. The simulation results of these biopathways are also correlated with biological observations. The software is available to academic users from http://www.GenomicObject.Net/.
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European land CO2 sink influenced by NAO and East-Atlantic Pattern coupling
Bastos, Ana; Janssens, Ivan A.; Gouveia, Célia M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Ciais, Philippe; Chevallier, Frédéric; Peñuelas, Josep; Rödenbeck, Christian; Piao, Shilong; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Running, Steven W.
2016-01-01
Large-scale climate patterns control variability in the global carbon sink. In Europe, the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences vegetation activity, however the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern is known to modulate NAO strength and location. Using observation-driven and modelled data sets, we show that multi-annual variability patterns of European Net Biome Productivity (NBP) are linked to anomalies in heat and water transport controlled by the NAO–EA interplay. Enhanced NBP occurs when NAO and EA are both in negative phase, associated with cool summers with wet soils which enhance photosynthesis. During anti-phase periods, NBP is reduced through distinct impacts of climate anomalies in photosynthesis and respiration. The predominance of anti-phase years in the early 2000s may explain the European-wide reduction of carbon uptake during this period, reported in previous studies. Results show that improving the capability of simulating atmospheric circulation patterns may better constrain regional carbon sink variability in coupled carbon-climate models. PMID:26777730
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European land CO2 sink influenced by NAO and East-Atlantic Pattern coupling.
Bastos, Ana; Janssens, Ivan A; Gouveia, Célia M; Trigo, Ricardo M; Ciais, Philippe; Chevallier, Frédéric; Peñuelas, Josep; Rödenbeck, Christian; Piao, Shilong; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Running, Steven W
2016-01-18
Large-scale climate patterns control variability in the global carbon sink. In Europe, the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences vegetation activity, however the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern is known to modulate NAO strength and location. Using observation-driven and modelled data sets, we show that multi-annual variability patterns of European Net Biome Productivity (NBP) are linked to anomalies in heat and water transport controlled by the NAO-EA interplay. Enhanced NBP occurs when NAO and EA are both in negative phase, associated with cool summers with wet soils which enhance photosynthesis. During anti-phase periods, NBP is reduced through distinct impacts of climate anomalies in photosynthesis and respiration. The predominance of anti-phase years in the early 2000s may explain the European-wide reduction of carbon uptake during this period, reported in previous studies. Results show that improving the capability of simulating atmospheric circulation patterns may better constrain regional carbon sink variability in coupled carbon-climate models.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kracher, Daniela
2017-11-01
Increase of forest areas has the potential to increase the terrestrial carbon (C) sink. However, the efficiency for C sequestration depends on the availability of nutrients such as nitrogen (N), which is affected by climatic conditions and management practices. In this study, I analyze how N limitation affects C sequestration of afforestation and how it is influenced by individual climate variables, increased harvest, and fertilizer application. To this end, JSBACH, the land component of the Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is applied in idealized simulation experiments. In those simulations, large-scale afforestation increases the terrestrial C sink in the 21st century by around 100 Pg C compared to a business as usual land-use scenario. N limitation reduces C sequestration roughly by the same amount. The relevance of compensating effects of uptake and release of carbon dioxide by plant productivity and soil decomposition, respectively, gets obvious from the simulations. N limitation of both fluxes compensates particularly in the tropics. Increased mineralization under global warming triggers forest expansion, which otherwise is restricted by N availability. Due to compensating higher plant productivity and soil respiration, the global net effect of warming for C sequestration is however rather small. Fertilizer application and increased harvest enhance C sequestration as well as boreal expansion. The additional C sequestration achieved by fertilizer application is offset to a large part by additional emissions of nitrous oxide.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ehtesham, Emad; Bengtson, Per
2017-04-01
During the last decade there has been an ongoing controversy regarding the extent to which nitrogen fertilization can increase carbon sequestration and net ecosystem production in forest ecosystems. The debate is complicated by the fact that increased nitrogen availability caused by nitrogen deposition has coincided with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The latter could further stimulate primary production but also result in increased allocation of carbon to root exudates, which could potentially ‘prime’ the decomposition of soil organic matter. Here we show that increased input of labile carbon to forest soil caused a decoupling of soil carbon and nitrogen cycling, which was manifested as a reduction in respiration of soil organic matter that coincided with a substantial increase in gross nitrogen mineralization. An estimate of the magnitude of the effect demonstrates that the decoupling could potentially result in an increase in net ecosystem production by up to 51 kg C ha-1 day-1 in nitrogen fertilized stands during peak summer. Even if the effect is several times lower on an annual basis, the results still suggest that nitrogen fertilization can have a much stronger influence on net ecosystem production than can be expected from a direct stimulation of primary production alone.
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NetMOD Version 2.0 User?s Manual.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Merchant, Bion J.
2015-10-01
NetMOD ( Net work M onitoring for O ptimal D etection) is a Java-based software package for conducting simulation of seismic, hydracoustic, and infrasonic networks. Specifically, NetMOD simulates the detection capabilities of monitoring networks. Network simulations have long been used to study network resilience to station outages and to determine where additional stations are needed to reduce monitoring thresholds. NetMOD makes use of geophysical models to determine the source characteristics, signal attenuation along the path between the source and station, and the performance and noise properties of the station. These geophysical models are combined to simulate the relative amplitudes ofmore » signal and noise that are observed at each of the stations. From these signal-to-noise ratios (SNR), the probability of detection can be computed given a detection threshold. This manual describes how to configure and operate NetMOD to perform detection simulations. In addition, NetMOD is distributed with simulation datasets for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) International Monitoring System (IMS) seismic, hydroacoustic, and infrasonic networks for the purpose of demonstrating NetMOD's capabilities and providing user training. The tutorial sections of this manual use this dataset when describing how to perform the steps involved when running a simulation. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would like to thank the reviewers of this document for their contributions.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bastola, S.; Bras, R. L.
2017-12-01
Feedbacks between vegetation and the soil nutrient cycle are important in ecosystems where nitrogen limits plant growth, and consequently influences the carbon balance in the plant-soil system. However, many biosphere models do not include such feedbacks, because interactions between carbon and the nitrogen cycle can be complex, and remain poorly understood. In this study we coupled a nitrogen cycle model with an eco-hydrological model by using the concept of carbon cost economics. This concept accounts for different "costs" to the plant of acquiring nitrogen via different pathways. This study builds on tRIBS-VEGGIE, a spatially explicit hydrological model coupled with a model of photosynthesis, stomatal resistance, and energy balance, by combining it with a model of nitrogen recycling. Driven by climate and spatially explicit data of soils, vegetation and topography, the model (referred to as tRIBS-VEGGIE-CN) simulates the dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in the soil-plant system; the dynamics of vegetation; and different components of the hydrological cycle. The tRIBS-VEGGIE-CN is applied in a humid tropical watershed at the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory (LCZO). The region is characterized by high availability and cycling of nitrogen, high soil respiration rates, and large carbon stocks.We drive the model under contemporary CO2 and hydro-climatic forcing and compare results to a simulation under doubling CO2 and a range of future climate scenarios. The results with parameterization of nitrogen limitation based on carbon cost economics show that the carbon cost of the acquisition of nitrogen is 14% of the net primary productivity (NPP) and the N uptake cost for different pathways vary over a large range depending on leaf nitrogen content, turnover rates of carbon in soil and nitrogen cycling processes. Moreover, the N fertilization simulation experiment shows that the application of N fertilizer does not significantly change the simulated NPP. Furthermore, an experiment with doubling of the CO2 concentration level shows a significant increase of the NPP and turnover of plant tissues. The simulation with future climate scenarios shows consistent decrease in NPP but the uncertainties in projected NPP arising from selection of climate model and scenario is large.
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Drought Rapidly Diminishes the Large Net CO2 Uptake in 2011 Over Semi-Arid Australia
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ma, Xuanlong; Huete, Alfredo; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek; Chevallier, Frederic; Joiner, Joanna; Poulter, Benjamin; Zhang, Yongguang; Guanter, Luis; Meyer, Wayne;
2016-01-01
Each year, terrestrial ecosystems absorb more than a quarter of the anthropogenic carbon emissions, termed as land carbon sink. An exceptionally large land carbon sink anomaly was recorded in 2011, of which more than half was attributed to Australia. However, the persistence and spatially attribution of this carbon sink remain largely unknown. Here we conducted an observation-based study to characterize the Australian land carbon sink through the novel coupling of satellite retrievals of atmospheric CO2 and photosynthesis and in-situ flux tower measures. We show the 2010-11 carbon sink was primarily ascribed to savannas and grasslands. When all biomes were normalized by rainfall, shrublands however, were most efficient in absorbing carbon. We found the 2010-11 net CO2 uptake was highly transient with rapid dissipation through drought. The size of the 2010-11 carbon sink over Australia (0.97 Pg) was reduced to 0.48 Pg in 2011-12, and was nearly eliminated in 2012-13 (0.08 Pg). We further report evidence of an earlier 2000-01 large net CO2 uptake, demonstrating a repetitive nature of this land carbon sink. Given a significant increasing trend in extreme wet year precipitation over Australia, we suggest that carbon sink episodes will exert greater future impacts on global carbon cycle.
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Drought rapidly diminishes the large net CO2 uptake in 2011 over semi-arid Australia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ma, Xuanlong; Huete, Alfredo; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek; Chevallier, Frédéric; Joiner, Joanna; Poulter, Benjamin; Zhang, Yongguang; Guanter, Luis; Meyer, Wayne; Xie, Zunyi; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo
2016-11-01
Each year, terrestrial ecosystems absorb more than a quarter of the anthropogenic carbon emissions, termed as land carbon sink. An exceptionally large land carbon sink anomaly was recorded in 2011, of which more than half was attributed to Australia. However, the persistence and spatially attribution of this carbon sink remain largely unknown. Here we conducted an observation-based study to characterize the Australian land carbon sink through the novel coupling of satellite retrievals of atmospheric CO2 and photosynthesis and in-situ flux tower measures. We show the 2010-11 carbon sink was primarily ascribed to savannas and grasslands. When all biomes were normalized by rainfall, shrublands however, were most efficient in absorbing carbon. We found the 2010-11 net CO2 uptake was highly transient with rapid dissipation through drought. The size of the 2010-11 carbon sink over Australia (0.97 Pg) was reduced to 0.48 Pg in 2011-12, and was nearly eliminated in 2012-13 (0.08 Pg). We further report evidence of an earlier 2000-01 large net CO2 uptake, demonstrating a repetitive nature of this land carbon sink. Given a significant increasing trend in extreme wet year precipitation over Australia, we suggest that carbon sink episodes will exert greater future impacts on global carbon cycle.
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Drought rapidly diminishes the large net CO2 uptake in 2011 over semi-arid Australia.
Ma, Xuanlong; Huete, Alfredo; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek; Chevallier, Frédéric; Joiner, Joanna; Poulter, Benjamin; Zhang, Yongguang; Guanter, Luis; Meyer, Wayne; Xie, Zunyi; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo
2016-11-25
Each year, terrestrial ecosystems absorb more than a quarter of the anthropogenic carbon emissions, termed as land carbon sink. An exceptionally large land carbon sink anomaly was recorded in 2011, of which more than half was attributed to Australia. However, the persistence and spatially attribution of this carbon sink remain largely unknown. Here we conducted an observation-based study to characterize the Australian land carbon sink through the novel coupling of satellite retrievals of atmospheric CO 2 and photosynthesis and in-situ flux tower measures. We show the 2010-11 carbon sink was primarily ascribed to savannas and grasslands. When all biomes were normalized by rainfall, shrublands however, were most efficient in absorbing carbon. We found the 2010-11 net CO 2 uptake was highly transient with rapid dissipation through drought. The size of the 2010-11 carbon sink over Australia (0.97 Pg) was reduced to 0.48 Pg in 2011-12, and was nearly eliminated in 2012-13 (0.08 Pg). We further report evidence of an earlier 2000-01 large net CO 2 uptake, demonstrating a repetitive nature of this land carbon sink. Given a significant increasing trend in extreme wet year precipitation over Australia, we suggest that carbon sink episodes will exert greater future impacts on global carbon cycle.
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Yang, Shihong; Xiao, Ya Nan; Xu, Junzeng
2018-04-01
Quantifying carbon sequestration in paddy soil is necessary to understand the effect of agricultural practices on carbon cycles. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of organic fertilizer addition (MF) on the soil respiration and net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) absorption of paddy fields under water-saving irrigation (CI) in the Taihu Lake Region of China during the 2014 and 2015 rice-growing seasons. Compared with the traditional fertilizer and water management (FC), the joint regulation of CI and MF (CM) significantly increased the rice yields and irrigation water use efficiencies of paddy fields by 4.02~5.08 and 83.54~109.97% (p < 0.05). The effects of organic fertilizer addition on soil respiration and net ecosystem CO 2 absorption rates showed inter-annual differences. CM paddy fields showed a higher soil respiration and net CO 2 absorption rates during some periods of the rice growth stage in the first year and during most periods of the rice growth stage in the second year. These fields also had significantly higher total CO 2 emission through soil respiration (total R soil ) and total net CO 2 absorption compared with FC paddy fields (p < 0.05). The total R soil and net ecosystem CO 2 absorption of CM paddy fields were 67.39~91.55 and 129.41~113.75 mol m -2 , which were 27.66~135.52 and 12.96~31.66% higher than those of FC paddy fields. The interaction between water and fertilizer management had significant effects on total net ecosystem CO 2 absorption. The frequent alternate wet-dry cycles of CI paddy fields increased the soil respiration and reduced the net CO 2 absorption. Organic fertilizer promoted the soil respiration of paddy soil but also increased its net CO 2 absorption and organic carbon content. Therefore, the joint regulation of water-saving irrigation and organic fertilizer is an effective measure for maintaining yield, increasing irrigation water use efficiency, mitigating CO 2 emission, and promoting paddy soil fertility.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Churkina, G.; Zaehle, S.; Hughes, J.; Viovy, N.; Chen, Y.; Jung, M.; Heumann, B. W.; Ramankutty, N.; Heimann, M.; Jones, C.
2010-09-01
European ecosystems are thought to take up large amounts of carbon, but neither the rate nor the contributions of the underlying processes are well known. In the second half of the 20th century, carbon dioxide concentrations have risen by more that 100 ppm, atmospheric nitrogen deposition has more than doubled, and European mean temperatures were increasing by 0.02 °C yr-1. The extents of forest and grasslands have increased with the respective rates of 5800 km2 yr-1 and 1100 km2 yr-1 as agricultural land has been abandoned at a rate of 7000 km2 yr-1. In this study, we analyze the responses of European land ecosystems to the aforementioned environmental changes using results from four process-based ecosystem models: BIOME-BGC, JULES, ORCHIDEE, and O-CN. The models suggest that European ecosystems sequester carbon at a rate of 56 TgC yr-1 (mean of four models for 1951-2000) with strong interannual variability (±88 TgC yr-1, average across models) and substantial inter-model uncertainty (±39 TgC yr-1). Decadal budgets suggest that there has been a continuous increase in the mean net carbon storage of ecosystems from 85 TgC yr-1 in 1980s to 108 TgC yr-1 in 1990s, and to 114 TgC yr-1 in 2000-2007. The physiological effect of rising CO2 in combination with nitrogen deposition and forest re-growth have been identified as the important explanatory factors for this net carbon storage. Changes in the growth of woody vegetation are suggested as an important contributor to the European carbon sink. Simulated ecosystem responses were more consistent for the two models accounting for terrestrial carbon-nitrogen dynamics than for the two models which only accounted for carbon cycling and the effects of land cover change. Studies of the interactions of carbon-nitrogen dynamics with land use changes are needed to further improve the quantitative understanding of the driving forces of the European land carbon balance.
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Climate indices strongly influence old-growth forest carbon exchange
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wharton, Sonia; Falk, Matthias
We present a decade and a half (1998–2013) of carbon dioxide fluxes from an old-growth stand in the American Pacific Northwest to identify ecosystem-level responses to Pacific teleconnection patterns, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study provides the longest, continuous record of old-growth eddy flux data to date from one of the longest running Fluxnet stations in the world. From 1998 to 2013, average annual net ecosystem exchange (F NEE) at Wind River AmeriFlux was –32 ± 84 g C m –2 yr –1 indicating that the late seral forest is on average a small net sink of atmosphericmore » carbon. However, interannual variability is high (>300 g C m –2 yr –1) and shows that the stand switches from net carbon sink to source in response to climate drivers associated with ENSO. The old-growth forest is a much stronger sink during La Niña years (mean F NEE = –90 g C m –2 yr –1) than during El Niño when the stand turns carbon neutral or into a small net carbon source (mean F NEE = +17 g C m –2 yr –1). Forest inventory data dating back to the 1930s show a similar correlation with the lower frequency Pacific North American (PNA) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) whereby higher aboveground net primary productivity (F ANPP) is associated with cool phases of both the PNA and PDO. Furthermore, these measurements add evidence that carbon exchange in old-growth stands may be more sensitive to climate variability across shorter time scales than once thought.« less
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Climate indices strongly influence old-growth forest carbon exchange
Wharton, Sonia; Falk, Matthias
2016-04-13
We present a decade and a half (1998–2013) of carbon dioxide fluxes from an old-growth stand in the American Pacific Northwest to identify ecosystem-level responses to Pacific teleconnection patterns, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study provides the longest, continuous record of old-growth eddy flux data to date from one of the longest running Fluxnet stations in the world. From 1998 to 2013, average annual net ecosystem exchange (F NEE) at Wind River AmeriFlux was –32 ± 84 g C m –2 yr –1 indicating that the late seral forest is on average a small net sink of atmosphericmore » carbon. However, interannual variability is high (>300 g C m –2 yr –1) and shows that the stand switches from net carbon sink to source in response to climate drivers associated with ENSO. The old-growth forest is a much stronger sink during La Niña years (mean F NEE = –90 g C m –2 yr –1) than during El Niño when the stand turns carbon neutral or into a small net carbon source (mean F NEE = +17 g C m –2 yr –1). Forest inventory data dating back to the 1930s show a similar correlation with the lower frequency Pacific North American (PNA) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) whereby higher aboveground net primary productivity (F ANPP) is associated with cool phases of both the PNA and PDO. Furthermore, these measurements add evidence that carbon exchange in old-growth stands may be more sensitive to climate variability across shorter time scales than once thought.« less
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Microbe-driven turnover offsets mineral-mediated storage of soil carbon under elevated CO2
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sulman, Benjamin N.; Phillips, Richard P.; Oishi, A. Christopher; Shevliakova, Elena; Pacala, Stephen W.
2014-12-01
The sensitivity of soil organic carbon (SOC) to changing environmental conditions represents a critical uncertainty in coupled carbon cycle-climate models. Much of this uncertainty arises from our limited understanding of the extent to which root-microbe interactions induce SOC losses (through accelerated decomposition or `priming') or indirectly promote SOC gains (via `protection' through interactions with mineral particles). We developed a new SOC model to examine priming and protection responses to rising atmospheric CO2. The model captured disparate SOC responses at two temperate free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments. We show that stabilization of `new' carbon in protected SOC pools may equal or exceed microbial priming of `old' SOC in ecosystems with readily decomposable litter and high clay content (for example, Oak Ridge). In contrast, carbon losses induced through priming dominate the net SOC response in ecosystems with more resistant litters and lower clay content (for example, Duke). The SOC model was fully integrated into a global terrestrial carbon cycle model to run global simulations of elevated CO2 effects. Although protected carbon provides an important constraint on priming effects, priming nonetheless reduced SOC storage in the majority of terrestrial areas, partially counterbalancing SOC gains from enhanced ecosystem productivity.
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A global carbon assimilation system based on a dual optimization method
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zheng, H.; Li, Y.; Chen, J. M.; Wang, T.; Huang, Q.; Huang, W. X.; Li, S. M.; Yuan, W. P.; Zheng, X.; Zhang, S. P.; Chen, Z. Q.; Jiang, F.
2014-10-01
Ecological models are effective tools to simulate the distribution of global carbon sources and sinks. However, these models often suffer from substantial biases due to inaccurate simulations of complex ecological processes. We introduce a set of scaling factors (parameters) to an ecological model on the basis of plant functional type (PFT) and latitudes. A global carbon assimilation system (GCAS-DOM) is developed by employing a Dual Optimization Method (DOM) to invert the time-dependent ecological model parameter state and the net carbon flux state simultaneously. We use GCAS-DOM to estimate the global distribution of the CO2 flux on 1° ×1° grid cells for the period from 2000 to 2007. Results show that land and ocean absorb -3.69 ± 0.49 Pg C year-1 and -1.91 ± 0.16 Pg C year-1, respectively. North America, Europe and China contribut -0.96 ± 0.15 Pg C year-1, -0.42 ± 0.08 Pg C year-1 and -0.21 ± 0.28 Pg C year-1, respectively. The uncertainties in the flux after optimization by GCAS-DOM have been remarkably reduced by more than 60%. Through parameter optimization, GCAS-DOM can provide improved estimates of the carbon flux for each PFT. Coniferous forest (-0.97 ± 0.27 Pg C year-1) is the largest contributor to the global carbon sink. Fluxes of once-dominant deciduous forest generated by BEPS is reduced to -0.79 ± 0.22 Pg C year-1, being the third largest carbon sink.
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Diurnal variation in rates of calcification and carbonate sediment dissolution in Florida Bay
Yates, K.K.; Halley, R.B.
2006-01-01
Water quality and circulation in Florida Bay (a shallow, subtropical estuary in south Florida) are highly dependent upon the development and evolution of carbonate mud banks distributed throughout the Bay. Predicting the effect of natural and anthropogenic perturbations on carbonate sedimentation requires an understanding of annual, seasonal, and daily variations in the biogenic and inorganic processes affecting carbonate sediment precipitation and dissolution. In this study, net calcification rates were measured over diurnal cycles on 27 d during summer and winter from 1999 to 2003 on mud banks and four representative substrate types located within basins between mud banks. Substrate types that were measured in basins include seagrass beds of sparse and intermediate density Thalassia sp., mud bottom, and hard bottom communities. Changes in total alkalinity were used as a proxy for calcification and dissolution. On 22 d (81%), diurnal variation in rates of net calcification was observed. The highest rates of net carbonate sediment production (or lowest rates of net dissolution) generally occurred during daylight hours and ranged from 2.900 to -0.410 g CaCO3 m-2 d-1. The lowest rates of carbonate sediment production (or net sediment dissolution) occurred at night and ranged from 0.210 to -1.900 g CaCO3 m -2 night-1. During typical diurnal cycles, dissolution during the night consumed an average of 29% of sediment produced during the day on banks and 68% of sediment produced during the day in basins. Net sediment dissolution also occurred during daylight, but only when there was total cloud cover, high turbidity, or hypersalinity. Diurnal variation in calcification and dissolution in surface waters and surface sediments of Florida Bay is linked to cycling of carbon dioxide through photosynthesis and respiration. Estimation of long-term sediment accumulation rates from diurnal rates of carbonate sediment production measured in this study indicates an overall average accumulation rate for Florida Bay of 8.7 cm 1000 yr-1 and suggests that sediment dissolution plays a more important role than sediment transport in loss of sediment from Florida Bay. ?? 2006 Estuarine Research Federation.
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Barman, Rahul; Jain, Atul K; Liang, Miaoling
2014-05-01
We used a land surface model to quantify the causes and extents of biases in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) due to the use of meteorological reanalysis datasets. We first calibrated the model using meteorology and eddy covariance data from 25 flux tower sites ranging from the tropics to the northern high latitudes and subsequently repeated the site simulations using two reanalysis datasets: NCEP/NCAR and CRUNCEP. The results show that at most sites, the reanalysis-driven GPP bias was significantly positive with respect to the observed meteorology-driven simulations. Notably, the absolute GPP bias was highest at the tropical evergreen tree sites, averaging up to ca. 0.45 kg C m(-2) yr(-1) across sites (ca. 15% of site level GPP). At the northern mid-/high-latitude broadleaf deciduous and the needleleaf evergreen tree sites, the corresponding annual GPP biases were up to 20%. For the nontree sites, average annual biases of up to ca. 20-30% were simulated within savanna, grassland, and shrubland vegetation types. At the tree sites, the biases in short-wave radiation and humidity strongly influenced the GPP biases, while the nontree sites were more affected by biases in factors controlling water stress (precipitation, humidity, and air temperature). In this study, we also discuss the influence of seasonal patterns of meteorological biases on GPP. Finally, using model simulations for the global land surface, we discuss the potential impacts of site-level reanalysis-driven biases on the global estimates of GPP. In a broader context, our results can have important consequences on other terrestrial ecosystem fluxes (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem production, energy/water fluxes) and reservoirs (e.g., soil carbon stocks). In a complementary study (Barman et al., ), we extend the present analysis for latent and sensible heat fluxes, thus consistently integrating the analysis of climate-driven uncertainties in carbon, energy, and water fluxes using a single modeling framework. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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[Modeling the Influencing Factors of Karstification and Karst Carbon Cycle in Laboratory].
Zhao, Rui-yi; Lü, Xian-fu; Duan, Yi-fan
2015-08-01
To analyze the influencing factors of karstification and karst carbon cycle, a simulation experiment was carried out and 6 soil columns were designed. The results showed that the content of H2O4, hydrodynamic condition and thickness of the soil had important influence on karstification and karst carbon cycle. For the soil columns which were covered by the same thickness of soil, the concentrations of Ca2+ + Mg2+ and SO4(2-) followed the order of B20-2 > B20-1 > B20-3, B50-2 > B50-1 > B50-3. This meant that input of H2SO4 enhanced the karstification and increasing infiltration water had significant dilution effect on the chemical properties. For the soil columns with different thickness of soil but with the same slag pile and hydrodynamic conditions, the concentrations of Ca2+ + Mg2+ and SO4(2-) followed the order of B50-1 > B20-1, B50-2 > B20-2, B50-3 > B20-3. It was demonstrated that more carbonate rock was dissolved under the thick soil columns. In addition, the net consumption of CO2 mainly depended on the content of H2SO4 in this experiment due to slight contribution of H2CO3 to carbonate rock dissolution. More content of H2SO4 brought about less net consumption of C02, but B50-2 was an exception. Organic matter and other nutrients might be input into deep soil with the slag pile, and they promoted the production of soil C)2. Therefore, more CO2 was consumed due to the increased contribution of H2CO to karstification.
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McGuire, A.D.; Clein, Joy S.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Meier, R.A.; Vorosmarty, C.J.; Serreze, Mark C.
2000-01-01
Historical and projected climate trends for high latitudes show substantial temporal and spatial variability. To identify uncertainties in simulating carbon (C) dynamics for pan-Arctic tundra, we compare the historical and projected responses of tundra C storage from 1921 to 2100 between simulations by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) for the pan-Arctic and the Kuparuk River Basin, which was the focus of an integrated study of C dynamics from 1994 to 1996. In the historical period from 1921 to 1994, the responses of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (RH) simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan-Arctic are correlated with the same factors; NPP is positively correlated with net nitrogen mineralization (NMIN) and RH is negatively correlated with mean annual soil moisture. In comparison to the historical period, the spatially aggregated responses of NPP and RH for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan-Arctic in our simulations for the projected period have different sensitivities to temperature, soil moisture and NMIN. In addition to being sensitive to soil moisture during the projected period, RH is also sensitive to temperature and there is a significant correlation between RH and NMIN. We interpret the increases in NPP during the projected period as being driven primarily by increases in NMIN, and that the correlation between NPP and temperature in the projected period is a result primarily of the causal linkage between temperature, RH, and NMIN. Although similar factors appear to be controlling simulated regional-and biome-scale C dynamics, simulated C dynamics at the two scales differ in magnitude with higher increases in C storage simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin than for the pan-Arctic at the end of the historical period and throughout the projected period. Also, the results of the simulations indicate that responses of C storage show different climate sensitivities at regional and pan-Arctic spatial scales and that these sensitivities change across the temporal scope of the simulations. The results of the TEM simulations indicate that the scaling of C dynamics to a region of arctic tundra may not represent C dynamics of pan-Arctic tundra because of the limited spatial variation in climate and vegetation within a region relative to the pan-Arctic. For reducing uncertainties, our analyses highlight the importance of incorporating the understanding gained from process-level studies of C dynamics in a region of arctic tundra into process-based models that simulate C dynamics in a spatially explicit fashion across the spatial domain of pan-Arctic tundra. Also, efforts to improve gridded datasets of historical climate for the pan-Arctic would advance the ability to assess the responses of C dynamics for pan-Arctic tundra in a more realistic fashion. A major challenge will be to incorporate topographic controls over soil moisture in assessing the response of C storage for pan-Arctic tundra.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Launois, Thomas; Ogée, Jérôme; Commane, Roisin; Wehr, Rchard; Meredith, Laura; Munger, Bill; Nelson, David; Saleska, Scott; Wofsy, Steve; Zahniser, Mark; Wingate, Lisa
2016-04-01
The exchange of CO2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is driven by photosynthetic uptake and respiratory loss, two fluxes currently estimated with considerable uncertainty at large scales. Model predictions indicate that these biosphere fluxes will be modified in the future as CO2 concentrations and temperatures increase; however, it still unclear to what extent. To address this challenge there is a need for better constraints on land surface model parameterisations. Additional atmospheric tracers of large-scale CO2 fluxes have been identified as potential candidates for this task. In particular carbonyl sulphide (OCS) has been proposed as a complementary tracer of gross photosynthesis over land, since OCS uptake by plants is dominated by carbonic anhydrase (CA) activity, an enzyme abundant in leaves that catalyses CO2 hydration during photosynthesis. However, although the mass budget at the ecosystem is dominated by the flux of OCS into leaves, some OCS is also exchanged between the atmosphere and the soil and this component of the budget requires constraining. In this study, we adapted the process-based isotope-enabled model MuSICA (Multi-layer Simulator of the Interactions between a vegetation Canopy and the Atmosphere) to include the transport, reaction, diffusion and production of OCS within a forested ecosystem. This model was combined with 3 years (2011-2013) of in situ measurements of OCS atmospheric concentration profiles and fluxes at the Harvard Forest (Massachussets, USA) to test hypotheses on the mechanisms responsible for CA-driven uptake by leaves and soils as well as possible OCS emissions during litter decomposition. Model simulations over the three years captured well the impact of diurnally and seasonally varying environmental conditions on the net ecosystem OCS flux. A sensitivity analysis on soil CA activity and soil OCS emission rates was also performed to quantify their impact on the vertical profiles of OCS inside the canopy and the net OCS exchange with the atmosphere.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.
2014-12-01
Large uncertainties preside over terrestrial carbon flux estimates on a global scale. In particular, the strongly coupled dynamics between net ecosystem productivity and disturbance C losses are poorly constrained. To gain an improved understanding of ecosystem C dynamics from regional to global scale, we apply a Markov Chain Monte Carlo based model-data-fusion approach into the CArbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM). We assimilate MODIS LAI and burned area, plant-trait data, and use the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) and maps of above ground biomass as prior knowledge for initial conditions. We optimize model parameters based on (a) globally spanning observations and (b) ecological and dynamic constraints that force single parameter values and parameter inter-dependencies to be representative of real world processes. We determine the spatial and temporal dynamics of major terrestrial C fluxes and model parameter values on a global scale (GPP = 123 +/- 8 Pg C yr-1 & NEE = -1.8 +/- 2.7 Pg C yr-1). We further show that the incorporation of disturbance fluxes, and accounting for their instantaneous or delayed effect, is of critical importance in constraining global C cycle dynamics, particularly in the tropics. In a higher resolution case study centred on the Amazon Basin we show how fires not only trigger large instantaneous emissions of burned matter, but also how they are responsible for a sustained reduction of up to 50% in plant uptake following the depletion of biomass stocks. The combination of these two fire-induced effects leads to a 1 g C m-2 d-1reduction in the strength of the net terrestrial carbon sink. Through our simulations at regional and global scale, we advocate the need to assimilate disturbance metrics in global terrestrial carbon cycle models to bridge the gap between globally spanning terrestrial carbon cycle data and the full dynamics of the ecosystem C cycle. Disturbances are especially important because their quick occurrence may have long-term effects on ecosystems. Our synthetic simulations show that while tropical ecosystems uptake may reach pre-disturbance level after a decade, biomass stocks would most likely need more than a century to recover from a single extreme disturbance event.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yue, X.; Unger, N.; Zheng, Y.
2015-08-01
The terrestrial biosphere has experienced dramatic changes in recent decades. Estimates of historical trends in land carbon fluxes remain uncertain because long-term observations are limited on the global scale. Here, we use the Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere (YIBs) model to estimate decadal trends in land carbon fluxes and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and to identify the key drivers for these changes during 1982-2011. Driven with hourly meteorology from WFDEI (WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim data), the model simulates an increasing trend of 297 Tg C a-2 in gross primary productivity (GPP) and 185 Tg C a-2 in the net primary productivity (NPP). CO2 fertilization is the main driver for the flux changes in forest ecosystems, while meteorology dominates the changes in grasslands and shrublands. Warming boosts summer GPP and NPP at high latitudes, while drought dampens carbon uptake in tropical regions. North of 30° N, increasing temperatures induce a substantial extension of 0.22 day a-1 for the growing season; however, this phenological change alone does not promote regional carbon uptake and BVOC emissions. Nevertheless, increases of LAI at peak season accounts for ~ 25 % of the trends in GPP and isoprene emissions at the northern lands. The net land sink shows statistically insignificant increases of only 3 Tg C a-2 globally because of simultaneous increases in soil respiration. In contrast, driven with alternative meteorology from MERRA (Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis), the model predicts significant increases of 59 Tg C a-2 in the land sink due to strengthened uptake in the Amazon. Global BVOC emissions are calculated using two schemes. With the photosynthesis-dependent scheme, the model predicts increases of 0.4 Tg C a-2 in isoprene emissions, which are mainly attributed to warming trends because CO2 fertilization and inhibition effects offset each other. Using the MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) scheme, the YIBs model simulates global reductions of 1.1 Tg C a-2 in isoprene and 0.04 Tg C a-2 in monoterpene emissions in response to the CO2 inhibition effects. Land use change shows limited impacts on global carbon fluxes and BVOC emissions, but there are regional contrasting impacts over Europe (afforestation) and China (deforestation).
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Testing of some assumptions about biodegradability in soil as measured by carbon dioxide evolution
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
El-Din Sharabi, N.; Bartha, R.
1993-04-01
The Toxic Substance Control Act calls for a premanufacturing review of novel chemical substances including their biodegradability. Carbon dioxide evolution, using non-labeled carbon or [sup 14]C, is a common method of testing. This study examines assumptions of carbon dioxide evolution testing. Test substances used included: glucose, adipic acid, benzoic acid, and n-hexadecane. Chemical composition other than carbon content appears to influence minimally the percentages conversion to CO[sub 2]. However, that although CO[sub 2] evolution seemed proportional to the carbon content and concentration of the test substance, at least one-half of the evolved net CO[sub 2] did not come directly frommore » the test substance. Conversion to CO[sub 2] in the soil appeared to depend on carbon content only. In experiments of 1 month or longer, the net CO[sub 2] evolution in response to substrate may be above 100% of the added substrate carbon. Whether this applies to all substrate additions remains to be studied. The authors conclude that net CO[sub 2] and [sup 14]CO[sub 2] evolution measurements are useful as a first-tier tests for assessing biodegradability in soil. 11 refs., 6 figs.« less
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Removal of terrestrial DOC in aquatic ecosystems of a temperate river network
Wollheim, W.M.; Stewart, R. J.; Aiken, George R.; Butler, Kenna D.; Morse, Nathaniel B.; Salisbury, J.
2015-01-01
Surface waters play a potentially important role in the global carbon balance. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes are a major transfer of terrestrial carbon to river systems, and the fate of DOC in aquatic systems is poorly constrained. We used a unique combination of spatially distributed sampling of three DOC fractions throughout a river network and modeling to quantify the net removal of terrestrial DOC during a summer base flow period. We found that aquatic reactivity of terrestrial DOC leading to net loss is low, closer to conservative chloride than to reactive nitrogen. Net removal occurred mainly from the hydrophobic organic acid fraction, while hydrophilic and transphilic acids showed no net change, indicating that partitioning of bulk DOC into different fractions is critical for understanding terrestrial DOC removal. These findings suggest that river systems may have only a modest ability to alter the amounts of terrestrial DOC delivered to coastal zones.
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Material migration studies with an ITER first wall panel proxy on EAST
Ding, R.; Pitts, R. A.; Borodin, D.; ...
2015-01-23
The ITER beryllium (Be) first wall (FW) panels are shaped to protect leading edges between neighbouring panels arising from assembly tolerances. This departure from a perfectly cylindrical surface automatically leads to magnetically shadowed regions where eroded Be can be re-deposited, together with co-deposition of tritium fuel. To provide a benchmark for a series of erosion/re-deposition simulation studies performed for the ITER FW panels, dedicated experiments have been performed on the EAST tokamak using a specially designed, instrumented test limiter acting as a proxy for the FW panel geometry. Carbon coated molybdenum plates forming the limiter front surface were exposed tomore » the outer midplane boundary plasma of helium discharges using the new Material and Plasma Evaluation System (MAPES). Net erosion and deposition patterns are estimated using ion beam analysis to measure the carbon layer thickness variation across the surface after exposure. The highest erosion of about 0.8 µm is found near the midplane, where the surface is closest to the plasma separatrix. No net deposition above the measurement detection limit was found on the proxy wall element, even in shadowed regions. The measured 2D surface erosion distribution has been modelled with the 3D Monte Carlo code ERO, using the local plasma parameter measurements together with a diffusive transport assumption. In conclusion, excellent agreement between the experimentally observed net erosion and the modelled erosion profile has been obtained.« less
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Friend, Andrew D; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F Ian
2014-03-04
Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510-758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52-477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.
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Friend, Andrew D.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T.; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D.; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R.; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F. Ian
2014-01-01
Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510–758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52–477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended. PMID:24344265
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Modelling short-term variability in carbon and water exchange in a temperate Scots pine forest
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vermeulen, M. H.; Kruijt, B. J.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.
2015-07-01
The vegetation-atmosphere carbon and water exchange at one particular site can strongly vary from year to year, and understanding this interannual variability in carbon and water exchange (IAVcw) is a critical factor in projecting future ecosystem changes. However, the mechanisms driving this IAVcw are not well understood. We used data on carbon and water fluxes from a multi-year eddy covariance study (1997-2009) in a Dutch Scots pine forest and forced a process-based ecosystem model (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator; LPJ-GUESS) with local data to, firstly, test whether the model can explain IAVcw and seasonal carbon and water exchange from direct environmental factors only. Initial model runs showed low correlations with estimated annual gross primary productivity (GPP) and annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), while monthly and daily fluxes showed high correlations. The model underestimated GPP and AET during winter and drought events. Secondly, we adapted the temperature inhibition function of photosynthesis to account for the observation that at this particular site, trees continue to assimilate at very low atmospheric temperatures (up to daily averages of -10 °C), resulting in a net carbon sink in winter. While we were able to improve daily and monthly simulations during winter by lowering the modelled minimum temperature threshold for photosynthesis, this did not increase explained IAVcw at the site. Thirdly, we implemented three alternative hypotheses concerning water uptake by plants in order to test which one best corresponds with the data. In particular, we analyse the effects during the 2003 heatwave. These simulations revealed a strong sensitivity of the modelled fluxes during dry and warm conditions, but no single formulation was consistently superior in reproducing the data for all timescales and the overall model-data match for IAVcw could not be improved. Most probably access to deep soil water leads to higher AET and GPP simulated during the heatwave of 2003. We conclude that photosynthesis at lower temperatures than assumed in most models can be important for winter carbon and water fluxes in pine forests. Furthermore, details of the model representations of water uptake, which are often overlooked, need further attention, and deep water access should be treated explicitly.
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Regional scale temperature and circulation impacts of short-lived climate pollutants reductions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oudar, T.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; von Salzen, K.; Shrestha, R.
2017-12-01
The role of anthropogenic aerosols on climate is still not clearly understood. Aerosol forcing is spatially heterogeneous and their emissions are controlled by regional economic and regulatory factors. For example, it is known that black carbon is responsible for a global net warming but its regional impacts are less understood. We evaluate the regional climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosol emission changes over the recent past and near future. Specifically, we report on numerical experiments using aerosol emissions from the Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants (ECLIPSE, Stohl et al., 2015) project. These scenarios are alternative mitigation pathways for black carbon and organic aerosol over the period from 1990 to 2050. With these scenarios, we carried out three sets of simulation using the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2): 1) A current legislation emission (CLE) scenario for black carbon and organic aerosols; 2) A mitigation (MIT) scenario for black carbon and organic aerosols, and; 3) A black carbon only mitigation scenario (MIT-BC). Five simulations were carried out for each scenario and the response analyzed in the context of a large fifty-member initial condition ensemble of simulations using historical anthropogenic aerosol forcings to 2005 as well as those forcing from the RCP8.5 scenario to 2020. Our main finding is a significant springtime cooling over the Northern midlatitudes that attributable to black carbon. Other cooling signals attributable to black carbon reductions are found in the boreal summer over Southern Europe as well as over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and tropical troposphere in boreal summer and fall. All of these cooling signals are to some degree offset by simultaneous reductions in organic aerosols. As a check on the robustness, we will also report on results of five-member draws from the large ensemble over periods of comparably strong radiative forcing changes, to gauge the chance of finding similar signals as a result of internal variability alone.
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Atmospheric Rivers as a Trigger for Landslides and Post-Fire Debris Flows in Southern California
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oakley, N.; Lancaster, J.; Stock, J. D.; Cerovski-Darriau, C.; Kaplan, M.; Ralph, F. M.
2016-12-01
The role of anthropogenic aerosols on climate is still not clearly understood. Aerosol forcing is spatially heterogeneous and their emissions are controlled by regional economic and regulatory factors. For example, it is known that black carbon is responsible for a global net warming but its regional impacts are less understood. We evaluate the regional climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosol emission changes over the recent past and near future. Specifically, we report on numerical experiments using aerosol emissions from the Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants (ECLIPSE, Stohl et al., 2015) project. These scenarios are alternative mitigation pathways for black carbon and organic aerosol over the period from 1990 to 2050. With these scenarios, we carried out three sets of simulation using the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2): 1) A current legislation emission (CLE) scenario for black carbon and organic aerosols; 2) A mitigation (MIT) scenario for black carbon and organic aerosols, and; 3) A black carbon only mitigation scenario (MIT-BC). Five simulations were carried out for each scenario and the response analyzed in the context of a large fifty-member initial condition ensemble of simulations using historical anthropogenic aerosol forcings to 2005 as well as those forcing from the RCP8.5 scenario to 2020. Our main finding is a significant springtime cooling over the Northern midlatitudes that attributable to black carbon. Other cooling signals attributable to black carbon reductions are found in the boreal summer over Southern Europe as well as over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and tropical troposphere in boreal summer and fall. All of these cooling signals are to some degree offset by simultaneous reductions in organic aerosols. As a check on the robustness, we will also report on results of five-member draws from the large ensemble over periods of comparably strong radiative forcing changes, to gauge the chance of finding similar signals as a result of internal variability alone.
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Yang, Hong; Xing, Yangping; Xie, Ping; Ni, Leyi; Rong, Kewen
2008-02-01
Although studies on carbon burial in lake sediments have shown that lakes are disproportionately important carbon sinks, many studies on gaseous carbon exchange across the water-air interface have demonstrated that lakes are supersaturated with CO(2) and CH(4) causing a net release of CO(2) and CH(4) to the atmosphere. In order to more accurately estimate the net carbon source/sink function of lake ecosystems, a more comprehensive carbon budget is needed, especially for gaseous carbon exchange across the water-air interface. Using two methods, overall mass balance and gas exchange and carbon burial balance, we assessed the carbon source/sink function of Lake Donghu, a subtropical, eutrophic lake, from April 2003 to March 2004. With the overall mass balance calculations, total carbon input was 14 905 t, total carbon output was 4950 t, and net carbon budget was +9955 t, suggesting that Lake Donghu was a great carbon sink. For the gas exchange and carbon burial balance, gaseous carbon (CO(2) and CH(4)) emission across the water-air interface totaled 752 t while carbon burial in the lake sediment was 9477 t. The ratio of carbon emission into the atmosphere to carbon burial into the sediment was only 0.08. This low ratio indicates that Lake Donghu is a great carbon sink. Results showed good agreement between the two methods with both showing Lake Donghu to be a great carbon sink. This results from the high primary production of Lake Donghu, substantive allochthonous carbon inputs and intensive anthropogenic activity. Gaseous carbon emission accounted for about 15% of the total carbon output, indicating that the total output would be underestimated without including gaseous carbon exchange.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Wei; MacBean, Natasha; Ciais, Philippe; Defourny, Pierre; Lamarche, Céline; Bontemps, Sophie; Houghton, Richard A.; Peng, Shushi
2018-01-01
Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) impacts local energy and water balance and contributes on global scale to a net carbon emission to the atmosphere. The newly released annual ESA CCI (climate change initiative) land cover maps provide continuous land cover changes at 300 m resolution from 1992 to 2015, and can be used in land surface models (LSMs) to simulate LULCC effects on carbon stocks and on surface energy budgets. Here we investigate the absolute areas and gross and net changes in different plant functional types (PFTs) derived from ESA CCI products. The results are compared with other datasets. Global areas of forest, cropland and grassland PFTs from ESA are 30.4, 19.3 and 35.7 million km2 in the year 2000. The global forest area is lower than that from LUH2v2h (Hurtt et al., 2011), Hansen et al. (2013) or Houghton and Nassikas (2017) while cropland area is higher than LUH2v2h (Hurtt et al., 2011), in which cropland area is from HYDE 3.2 (Klein Goldewijk et al., 2016). Gross forest loss and gain during 1992-2015 are 1.5 and 0.9 million km2 respectively, resulting in a net forest loss of 0.6 million km2, mainly occurring in South and Central America. The magnitudes of gross changes in forest, cropland and grassland PFTs in the ESA CCI are smaller than those in other datasets. The magnitude of global net cropland gain for the whole period is consistent with HYDE 3.2 (Klein Goldewijk et al., 2016), but most of the increases happened before 2004 in ESA and after 2007 in HYDE 3.2. Brazil, Bolivia and Indonesia are the countries with the largest net forest loss from 1992 to 2015, and the decreased areas are generally consistent with those from Hansen et al. (2013) based on Landsat 30 m resolution images. Despite discrepancies compared to other datasets, and uncertainties in converting into PFTs, the new ESA CCI products provide the first detailed long-term time series of land-cover change and can be implemented in LSMs to characterize recent carbon dynamics, and in climate models to simulate land-cover change feedbacks on climate. The annual ESA CCI land cover products can be downloaded from http://maps.elie.ucl.ac.be/CCI/viewer/download.php (Land Cover Maps - v2.0.7; see details in Sect. 5). The PFT map translation protocol and an example in 2000 can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.834229. The annual ESA CCI PFT maps from 1992 to 2015 at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution can also be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1048163.
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Country-level net primary production distribution and response to drought and land cover change
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems can offset emissions and thereby offers an alternative way of achieving the target of reducing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Net primary production (NPP) is the first step in the sequestration of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems. This stud...
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Eddy covariance (EC) is a well-established, non-intrusive observational technique that has long been used to measure the net carbon balance of numerous ecosystems including crop lands for perennial crops such as orchards and vineyards, and pasturelands. While EC measures net carbon fluxes well, it ...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gielen, Bert; De Vos, Bruno; Papale, Dario; Janssens, Ivan
2013-04-01
In recent years, the status of forests as sources or sinks of carbon has received much attention. Nonetheless, evidence-based long-term estimates of the magnitude of the carbon sequestration in forests are still scarce. In this study we present two independent estimates of net carbon sequestration in a temperate Scots pine dominated forest ecosystem over a 9 year period (2002-2010) and in addition, to determine the full greenhouse gas balance, the first results of automated chamber measurements of N2O and CH4. First, the net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was estimated from net ecosystem CO2 exchange as measured by the eddy covariance technique (NECBEC). To this end, the eddy covariance estimates were combined with non-CO2 carbon fluxes such as DOC leaching and VOC emissions. The second approach to determine the carbon sequestration was based on the changes in the ecosystem carbon stocks over time (NECBSC). For this NECBSC estimate, two assessments of the ecosystem carbon stocks (2002 and 2010) were compared. Results showed that the eddy covariance approach estimated a net uptake of 2.4 ± 1.25 tC ha-1 yr-1, while the stock based approach suggested a carbon sink of 1.8 ± 1.20 tC ha-1 yr-1. No significant change was observed in the mineral soil carbon, while the carbon stock of the litter layer slightly decreased. Phytomass was thus the main carbon sink (2.1 tC ha-1 yr-1) in the pine forest, predominantly in the stems (1.3 tC ha-1 yr-1). The fact that stem wood is the main carbon sink within the ecosystem implies that the future harvesting has the potential to fully offset the CO2 uptake by this Scots pine forest. Estimates of the impact of N2O and CH4 emissions from the soil on the total greenhouse gas budget will be presented.
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Whelan, Andrew; Mitchell, Robert; Staudhammer, Christina; Starr, Gregory
2013-01-01
Fire regulates the structure and function of savanna ecosystems, yet we lack understanding of how cyclic fire affects savanna carbon dynamics. Furthermore, it is largely unknown how predicted changes in climate may impact the interaction between fire and carbon cycling in these ecosystems. This study utilizes a novel combination of prescribed fire, eddy covariance (EC) and statistical techniques to investigate carbon dynamics in frequently burned longleaf pine savannas along a gradient of soil moisture availability (mesic, intermediate and xeric). This research approach allowed us to investigate the complex interactions between carbon exchange and cyclic fire along the ecological amplitude of longleaf pine. Over three years of EC measurement of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) show that the mesic site was a net carbon sink (NEE = -2.48 tonnes C ha(-1)), while intermediate and xeric sites were net carbon sources (NEE = 1.57 and 1.46 tonnes C ha(-1), respectively), but when carbon losses due to fuel consumption were taken into account, all three sites were carbon sources (10.78, 7.95 and 9.69 tonnes C ha(-1) at the mesic, intermediate and xeric sites, respectively). Nonetheless, rates of NEE returned to pre-fire levels 1-2 months following fire. Consumption of leaf area by prescribed fire was associated with reduction in NEE post-fire, and the system quickly recovered its carbon uptake capacity 30-60 days post fire. While losses due to fire affected carbon balances on short time scales (instantaneous to a few months), drought conditions over the final two years of the study were a more important driver of net carbon loss on yearly to multi-year time scales. However, longer-term observations over greater environmental variability and additional fire cycles would help to more precisely examine interactions between fire and climate and make future predictions about carbon dynamics in these systems.
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Whelan, Andrew; Mitchell, Robert; Staudhammer, Christina; Starr, Gregory
2013-01-01
Fire regulates the structure and function of savanna ecosystems, yet we lack understanding of how cyclic fire affects savanna carbon dynamics. Furthermore, it is largely unknown how predicted changes in climate may impact the interaction between fire and carbon cycling in these ecosystems. This study utilizes a novel combination of prescribed fire, eddy covariance (EC) and statistical techniques to investigate carbon dynamics in frequently burned longleaf pine savannas along a gradient of soil moisture availability (mesic, intermediate and xeric). This research approach allowed us to investigate the complex interactions between carbon exchange and cyclic fire along the ecological amplitude of longleaf pine. Over three years of EC measurement of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) show that the mesic site was a net carbon sink (NEE = −2.48 tonnes C ha−1), while intermediate and xeric sites were net carbon sources (NEE = 1.57 and 1.46 tonnes C ha−1, respectively), but when carbon losses due to fuel consumption were taken into account, all three sites were carbon sources (10.78, 7.95 and 9.69 tonnes C ha−1 at the mesic, intermediate and xeric sites, respectively). Nonetheless, rates of NEE returned to pre-fire levels 1–2 months following fire. Consumption of leaf area by prescribed fire was associated with reduction in NEE post-fire, and the system quickly recovered its carbon uptake capacity 30–60 days post fire. While losses due to fire affected carbon balances on short time scales (instantaneous to a few months), drought conditions over the final two years of the study were a more important driver of net carbon loss on yearly to multi-year time scales. However, longer-term observations over greater environmental variability and additional fire cycles would help to more precisely examine interactions between fire and climate and make future predictions about carbon dynamics in these systems. PMID:23335986
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Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Yin, Runsheng; Li, Zhengpeng; Deng, Yulin; Tan, Kun; Deng, Xiangzheng; Rothstein, David; Qi, Jiaguo; Yin, Runsheng
2009-01-01
Quantifying the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems and carbon fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is critical to our understanding of regional patterns of carbon storage and loss. Here we use the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System to simulate the terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Jinsha watershed of China's upper Yangtze basin from 1975 to 2000, based on unique combinations of spatial and temporal dynamics of major driving forces, such as climate, soil properties, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover changes. Our analysis demonstrates that the Jinsha watershed ecosystems acted as a carbon sink during the period of 1975–2000, with an average rate of 0.36 Mg/ha/yr, primarily resulting from regional climate variation and local land use and land cover change. Vegetation biomass accumulation accounted for 90.6% of the sink, while soil organic carbon loss before 1992 led to lower net gain of carbon in the watershed, and after that soils became a small sink. Ecosystem carbon sinks/source pattern showed a high degree of spatial heterogeneity, Carbon sinks were associated with forest areas without disturbances, whereas carbon Sources were primarily caused by stand-replacing disturbances. This highlights the importance of land-use history in determining the regional carbon sinks/source pattern.
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A Meta-Analysis of Single-Family Deep Energy Retrofit Performance in the U.S.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Less, Brennan; Walker, Iain
2014-08-01
The current state of Deep Energy Retrofit (DER) performance in the U.S. has been assessed in 116 homes in the United States, using actual and simulated data gathered from the available domestic literature. Substantial airtightness reductions averaging 63% (n=48) were reported (two- to three-times more than in conventional retrofits), with average post-retrofit airtightness of 4.7 Air Changes per House at 50 Pascal (ACH50) (n=94). Yet, mechanical ventilation was not installed consistently. In order to avoid indoor air quality (IAQ) issues, all future DERs should comply with ASHRAE 62.2-2013 requirements or equivalent. Projects generally achieved good energy results, with average annualmore » net-site and net-source energy savings of 47%±20% and 45%±24% (n=57 and n=35), respectively, and carbon emission reductions of 47%±22% (n=23). Net-energy reductions did not vary reliably with house age, airtightness, or reported project costs, but pre-retrofit energy usage was correlated with total reductions (MMBtu).« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Albright, R.; Langdon, C.; Anthony, K. R. N.
2013-05-01
Ocean acidification is projected to shift coral reefs from a state of net accretion to one of net dissolution this century. Presently, our ability to predict global-scale changes to coral reef calcification is limited by insufficient data relating seawater carbonate chemistry parameters to in situ rates of reef calcification. Here, we investigate natural trends in carbonate chemistry of the Davies Reef flat in the central Great Barrier Reef on diel and seasonal timescales and relate these trends to benthic carbon fluxes by quantifying net ecosystem calcification (nec) and net community production (ncp). Results show that seawater carbonate chemistry of the Davies Reef flat is highly variable over both diel and seasonal timescales. pH (total scale) ranged from 7.92 to 8.17, pCO2 ranged from 272 to 542 μatm, and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) ranged from 2.9 to 4.1. Diel cycles in carbonate chemistry were primarily driven by ncp, and warming explained 35% and 47% of the seasonal shifts in pCO2 and pH, respectively. Daytime ncp averaged 36 ± 19 mmol C m-2 h-1 in summer and 33 ± 13 mmol C m-2 h-1 in winter; nighttime ncp averaged -22 ± 20 and -7 ± 6 mmol C m-2 h-1 in summer and winter, respectively. Daytime nec averaged 11 ± 4 mmol CaCO3 m-2 h-1 in summer and 8 ± 3 mmol CaCO3 m-2 h-1 in winter, whereas nighttime nec averaged 2 ± 4 mmol and -1 ± 3 mmol CaCO3 m-2 h-1 in summer and winter, respectively. Net ecosystem calcification was positively correlated with Ωarag for both seasons. Linear correlations of nec and Ωarag indicate that the Davies Reef flat may transition from a state of net calcification to net dissolution at Ωarag values of 3.4 in summer and 3.2 in winter. Diel trends in Ωarag indicate that the reef flat is currently below this calcification threshold 29.6% of the time in summer and 14.1% of the time in winter.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Post, Hanna; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Fox, Andrew; Vereecken, Harry; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan
2017-03-01
The Community Land Model (CLM) contains many parameters whose values are uncertain and thus require careful estimation for model application at individual sites. Here we used Bayesian inference with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM(zs)) algorithm to estimate eight CLM v.4.5 ecosystem parameters using 1 year records of half-hourly net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) observations of four central European sites with different plant functional types (PFTs). The posterior CLM parameter distributions of each site were estimated per individual season and on a yearly basis. These estimates were then evaluated using NEE data from an independent evaluation period and data from "nearby" FLUXNET sites at 600 km distance to the original sites. Latent variables (multipliers) were used to treat explicitly uncertainty in the initial carbon-nitrogen pools. The posterior parameter estimates were superior to their default values in their ability to track and explain the measured NEE data of each site. The seasonal parameter values reduced with more than 50% (averaged over all sites) the bias in the simulated NEE values. The most consistent performance of CLM during the evaluation period was found for the posterior parameter values of the forest PFTs, and contrary to the C3-grass and C3-crop sites, the latent variables of the initial pools further enhanced the quality-of-fit. The carbon sink function of the forest PFTs significantly increased with the posterior parameter estimates. We thus conclude that land surface model predictions of carbon stocks and fluxes require careful consideration of uncertain ecological parameters and initial states.
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Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...
2017-03-28
We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson
2017-04-01
We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent
We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Xiaojuan; Thornton, Peter E.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Hoffman, Forrest M.
2016-07-01
The effects of phosphorus (P) availability on carbon (C) cycling in the Amazon region are investigated using CLM-CNP. We demonstrate that the coupling of P dynamics reduces the simulated historical terrestrial C sink due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) by about 26%. Our exploratory simulations show that the response of tropical forest C cycling to increasing [CO2] depends on how elevated CO2 affects phosphatase enzyme production. The effects of warming are more complex, depending on the interactions between humidity, C, and nutrient dynamics. While a simulation with low humidity generally shows the reduction of net primary productivity (NPP), a second simulation with higher humidity suggests overall increases in NPP due to the dominant effects of reduced water stress and more nutrient availability. Our simulations point to the need for (1) new observations on how elevated [CO2] affects phosphatase enzyme production and (2) more tropical leaf-scale measurements under different temperature/humidity conditions with different soil P availability.
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Drought rapidly diminishes the large net CO2 uptake in 2011 over semi-arid Australia
Ma, Xuanlong; Huete, Alfredo; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek; Chevallier, Frédéric; Joiner, Joanna; Poulter, Benjamin; Zhang, Yongguang; Guanter, Luis; Meyer, Wayne; Xie, Zunyi; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo
2016-01-01
Each year, terrestrial ecosystems absorb more than a quarter of the anthropogenic carbon emissions, termed as land carbon sink. An exceptionally large land carbon sink anomaly was recorded in 2011, of which more than half was attributed to Australia. However, the persistence and spatially attribution of this carbon sink remain largely unknown. Here we conducted an observation-based study to characterize the Australian land carbon sink through the novel coupling of satellite retrievals of atmospheric CO2 and photosynthesis and in-situ flux tower measures. We show the 2010–11 carbon sink was primarily ascribed to savannas and grasslands. When all biomes were normalized by rainfall, shrublands however, were most efficient in absorbing carbon. We found the 2010–11 net CO2 uptake was highly transient with rapid dissipation through drought. The size of the 2010–11 carbon sink over Australia (0.97 Pg) was reduced to 0.48 Pg in 2011–12, and was nearly eliminated in 2012–13 (0.08 Pg). We further report evidence of an earlier 2000–01 large net CO2 uptake, demonstrating a repetitive nature of this land carbon sink. Given a significant increasing trend in extreme wet year precipitation over Australia, we suggest that carbon sink episodes will exert greater future impacts on global carbon cycle. PMID:27886216
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A long-term simulation of forest carbon fluxes over the Qilian Mountains
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yan, Min; Tian, Xin; Li, Zengyuan; Chen, Erxue; Li, Chunmei; Fan, Wenwu
2016-10-01
In this work, we integrated a remote-sensing-based (the MODIS MOD_17 Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) model (MOD_17)) and a process-based (the Biome-BioGeochemical Cycles (Biome-BGC) model) ecological model in order to estimate long-term (from 2000 to 2012) forest carbon fluxes over the Qilian Mountains in northwest China, a cold and arid forest ecosystem. Our goal was to obtain an accurate and quantitative simulation of spatial GPP patterns using the MOD_17 model and a temporal description of forest processes using the Biome-BGC model. The original MOD_17 model was first optimized using a biome-specific parameter, observed meteorological data, and reproduced fPAR at the eddy covariance site. The optimized MOD_17 model performed much better (R2 = 0.91, RMSE = 5.19 gC/m2/8d) than the original model (R2 = 0.47, RMSE = 20.27 gC/m2/8d). The Biome-BGC model was then calibrated using GPP for 30 representative forest plots selected from the optimized MOD_17 model. The calibrated Biome-BGC model was then driven in order to estimate forest GPP, net primary productivity (NPP), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). GPP and NEE were validated against two-year (2010 and 2011) EC measurements (R2 = 0.79, RMSE = 1.15 gC/m2/d for GPP; and R2 = 0.69, RMSE = 1.087 gC/m2/d for NEE). NPP estimates from 2000 to 2012 were then compared to dendrochronological measurements (R2 = 0.73, RMSE = 24.46 gC/m2/yr). Our results indicated that integration of the two models can be used for estimating carbon fluxes with good accuracy and a high temporal and spatial resolution. Overall, NPP displayed a downward trend, with an average rate of 0.39 gC/m2/yr, from 2000 and 2012 over the Qilian Mountains. Simulated average annual NPP yielded higher values for the southeast as compared to the northwest. The most positive correlative climatic factor to average annual NPP was downward shortwave radiation. The vapor pressure deficit, and mean temperature and precipitation yielded negative correlations to average annual NPP.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Beer, C.; Lucht, W.; Gerten, D.; Thonicke, K.; Schmullius, C.
2007-03-01
The current latitudinal gradient in biomass suggests a climate-driven limitation of biomass in high latitudes. Understanding of the underlying processes, and quantification of their relative importance, is required to assess the potential carbon uptake of the biosphere in response to anticipated warming and related changes in tree growth and forest extent in these regions. We analyze the hydrological effects of thawing and freezing of soil on vegetation carbon density (VCD) in permafrost-dominated regions of Siberia using a process-based biogeochemistry-biogeography model, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM). The analysis is based on spatially explicit simulations of coupled daily thaw depth, site hydrology, vegetation distribution, and carbon fluxes influencing VCD subject to climate, soil texture, and atmospheric CO2 concentration. LPJ represents the observed high spring peak of runoff of large Arctic rivers, and simulates a realistic fire return interval of 100 to 200 years in Siberia. The simulated VCD changeover from taiga to tundra is comparable to inventory-based information. Without the consideration of freeze-thaw processes VCD would be overestimated by a factor of 2 in southern taiga to a factor of 5 in northern forest tundra, mainly because available soil water would be overestimated with major effects on fire occurrence and net primary productivity. This suggests that forest growth in high latitudes is not only limited by temperature, radiation, and nutrient availability but also by the availability of liquid soil water.
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McFarlane, Karis J.; Hanson, Paul J.; Iversen, Colleen M.; ...
2018-05-30
Here, we evaluated the spatial heterogeneity of historical carbon accumulation rates in a forested, ombrotrophic bog in Minnesota to aid understanding of responses to an ongoing decade-long warming manipulation. Eighteen peat cores indicated that the bog has been accumulating carbon for over 11,000 years, to yield 176±40 kg C m –2 to 225±58 cm of peat depth. Estimated peat basal ages ranged from 5100 to 11,100 cal BP. The long-term apparent rate of carbon accumulation over the entire peat profile was 22±2 kg C m –2yr –1. Plot location within the study area did not affect carbon accumulation rates, butmore » estimated basal ages were younger in profiles from plots closer to the bog lagg and farther from the bog outlet. In addition, carbon accumulation varied considerably over time. Early Holocene net carbon accumulation rates were 30±6 g C m –2yr –1. Around 3300 calendar BP, net carbon accumulation rates dropped to 15±8 g C m –2yr –1until the last century when net accumulation rates increased again to 74±57 g C m –2yr –1. During this period of low accumulation, regional droughts may have lowered the water table, allowing for enhanced aerobic decomposition and making the bog more susceptible to fire. These results suggest that experimental warming treatments, as well as a future warmer climate may reduce net carbon accumulation in peat in this and other southern boreal peatlands. Furthermore, our we caution against historical interpretations extrapolated from one or a few peat cores.« less
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Fire as the dominant driver of central Canadian boreal forest carbon balance.
Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Peckham, Scott D; Ahl, Douglas E; Gower, Stith T
2007-11-01
Changes in climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and fire regimes have been occurring for decades in the global boreal forest, with future climate change likely to increase fire frequency--the primary disturbance agent in most boreal forests. Previous attempts to assess quantitatively the effect of changing environmental conditions on the net boreal forest carbon balance have not taken into account the competition between different vegetation types on a large scale. Here we use a process model with three competing vascular and non-vascular vegetation types to examine the effects of climate, carbon dioxide concentrations and fire disturbance on net biome production, net primary production and vegetation dominance in 100 Mha of Canadian boreal forest. We find that the carbon balance of this region was driven by changes in fire disturbance from 1948 to 2005. Climate changes affected the variability, but not the mean, of the landscape carbon balance, with precipitation exerting a more significant effect than temperature. We show that more frequent and larger fires in the late twentieth century resulted in deciduous trees and mosses increasing production at the expense of coniferous trees. Our model did not however exhibit the increases in total forest net primary production that have been inferred from satellite data. We find that poor soil drainage decreased the variability of the landscape carbon balance, which suggests that increased climate and hydrological changes have the potential to affect disproportionately the carbon dynamics of these areas. Overall, we conclude that direct ecophysiological changes resulting from global climate change have not yet been felt in this large boreal region. Variations in the landscape carbon balance and vegetation dominance have so far been driven largely by increases in fire frequency.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
McFarlane, Karis J.; Hanson, Paul J.; Iversen, Colleen M.
Here, we evaluated the spatial heterogeneity of historical carbon accumulation rates in a forested, ombrotrophic bog in Minnesota to aid understanding of responses to an ongoing decade-long warming manipulation. Eighteen peat cores indicated that the bog has been accumulating carbon for over 11,000 years, to yield 176±40 kg C m –2 to 225±58 cm of peat depth. Estimated peat basal ages ranged from 5100 to 11,100 cal BP. The long-term apparent rate of carbon accumulation over the entire peat profile was 22±2 kg C m –2yr –1. Plot location within the study area did not affect carbon accumulation rates, butmore » estimated basal ages were younger in profiles from plots closer to the bog lagg and farther from the bog outlet. In addition, carbon accumulation varied considerably over time. Early Holocene net carbon accumulation rates were 30±6 g C m –2yr –1. Around 3300 calendar BP, net carbon accumulation rates dropped to 15±8 g C m –2yr –1until the last century when net accumulation rates increased again to 74±57 g C m –2yr –1. During this period of low accumulation, regional droughts may have lowered the water table, allowing for enhanced aerobic decomposition and making the bog more susceptible to fire. These results suggest that experimental warming treatments, as well as a future warmer climate may reduce net carbon accumulation in peat in this and other southern boreal peatlands. Furthermore, our we caution against historical interpretations extrapolated from one or a few peat cores.« less
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BioNetFit: a fitting tool compatible with BioNetGen, NFsim and distributed computing environments
Thomas, Brandon R.; Chylek, Lily A.; Colvin, Joshua; ...
2015-11-09
Rule-based models are analyzed with specialized simulators, such as those provided by the BioNetGen and NFsim open-source software packages. Here in this paper, we present BioNetFit, a general-purpose fitting tool that is compatible with BioNetGen and NFsim. BioNetFit is designed to take advantage of distributed computing resources. This feature facilitates fitting (i.e. optimization of parameter values for consistency with data) when simulations are computationally expensive.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marchenko, S. S.; Helene, G.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Breen, A. L.; McGuire, D.; Rupp, S. T.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Walsh, J. E.
2017-12-01
The Soil Temperature and Active Layer Thickness (ALT) Gridded Data was developed to quantify the nature and rate of permafrost degradation and its impact on ecosystems, infrastructure, CO2 and CH4 fluxes and net C storage following permafrost thaw across Alaska. To develop this database, we used the process-based permafrost dynamics model GIPL2 developed in the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab, UAF and which is the permafrost module of the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada. The climate forcing data for simulations were developed by the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP, http://www.snap.uaf.edu/). These data are based on the historical CRU3.1 data set for the retrospective analysis period (1901-2009) and the five model averaged data were derived from the five CMIP5/AR5 IPCC Global Circulation Models that performed the best in Alaska and other northern regions: NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3. A composite of all five-model outputs for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used in these particular permafrost dynamics simulations. Data sets were downscaled to a 771 m resolution, using the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) climatology. Additional input data (snow characteristics, soil thermal properties, soil water content, organic matter accumulation or its loss due to fire, etc.) came from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) and the ALFRESCO (ALaska FRame-based EcoSystem COde) model simulations. We estimated the dynamics of permafrost temperature, active layer thickness, area occupied by permafrost, and volume of seasonally thawed soils within the 4.75 upper meters (original TEM soil column) across the Alaska domain. Simulations of future changes in permafrost indicate that, by the end of the 21st century, late-Holocene permafrost in Alaska will be actively thawing at all locations and that some Late Pleistocene carbon-rich peatlands underlain by permafrost will start to thaw at some locations. The modeling results also indicate how different types of ecosystems affect the thermal state of permafrost and its stability. The release of carbon and the net effect of this thawing depends on the balance between increased productivity and respiration, which depend, in part, on soil moisture dynamics.
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SpaceNet: Modeling and Simulating Space Logistics
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lee, Gene; Jordan, Elizabeth; Shishko, Robert; de Weck, Olivier; Armar, Nii; Siddiqi, Afreen
2008-01-01
This paper summarizes the current state of the art in interplanetary supply chain modeling and discusses SpaceNet as one particular method and tool to address space logistics modeling and simulation challenges. Fundamental upgrades to the interplanetary supply chain framework such as process groups, nested elements, and cargo sharing, enabled SpaceNet to model an integrated set of missions as a campaign. The capabilities and uses of SpaceNet are demonstrated by a step-by-step modeling and simulation of a lunar campaign.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Verduzco, Vivian S.; Garatuza-Payán, Jaime; Yépez, Enrico A.; Watts, Christopher J.; Rodríguez, Julio C.; Robles-Morua, Agustin; Vivoni, Enrique R.
2015-10-01
Due to their large extent and high primary productivity, tropical dry forests (TDF) are important contributors to atmospheric carbon exchanges in subtropical and tropical regions. In northwest Mexico, a bimodal precipitation regime that includes winter precipitation derived from Pacific storms and summer precipitation from the North American monsoon (NAM) couples water availability with ecosystem processes. We investigated the net ecosystem production of a TDF ecosystem using a 4.5 year record of water and carbon fluxes obtained from the eddy covariance method complemented with remotely sensed data. We identified a large CO2 efflux at the start of the summer season that is strongly related to the preceding winter precipitation and greenness. Since this CO2 efflux occurs prior to vegetation green-up, we infer that respiration is mainly due to decomposition of soil organic matter accumulated from the prior growing season. Overall, ecosystem respiration has an important effect on the net ecosystem production but can be overwhelmed by the strength of the primary productivity during the NAM. Precipitation characteristics during NAM have significant controls on sustaining carbon fixation in the TDF into the fall season. We identified that a threshold of ~350 to 400 mm of monsoon precipitation leads to a switch in the annual carbon balance in the TDF ecosystem from a net source (+102 g C/m2/yr) to a net sink (-249 g C/m2/yr). This monsoonal precipitation threshold is typically exceeded one out of every 2 years. The close coupling of winter and summer periods with respect to carbon fluxes suggests that the annual carbon balance is dependent on precipitation amounts in both seasons in TDF ecosystems.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anderson, C.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Huang, M.; Xu, Y.; Stegen, J.
2016-12-01
Ecosystem composition is a key attribute of terrestrial ecosystems, influencing the fluxes of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. The description of current ecosystem composition has traditionally come from relatively few ground-based inventories of the plant canopy, but are spatially limited and do not provide a comprehensive picture of ecosystem composition at regional or global scales. In this analysis, imaging spectrometry measurements, collected as part of the HyspIRI Preparatory Mission, are used to provide spatially-resolved estimates of plant functional type composition providing an important constraint on terrestrial biosphere model predictions of carbon, water and energy fluxes across the heterogeneous landscapes of the Californian Sierras. These landscapes include oak savannas, mid-elevation mixed pines, fir-cedar forests, and high elevation pines. Our results show that imaging spectrometry measurements can be successfully used to estimate regional-scale variation in ecosystem composition and resulting spatial heterogeneity in patterns of carbon, water and energy fluxes and ecosystem dynamics. Simulations at four flux tower sites within the study region yield patterns of seasonal and inter-annual variation in carbon and water fluxes that have comparable accuracy to simulations initialized from ground-based inventory measurements. Finally, results indicate that during the 2012-2015 Californian drought, regional net carbon fluxes fell by 84%, evaporation and transpiration fluxes fell by 53% and 33% respectively, and sensible heat increase by 51%. This study provides a framework for assimilating near-future global satellite imagery estimates of ecosystem composition with terrestrial biosphere models, constraining and improving their predictions of large-scale ecosystem dynamics and functioning.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Antonarakis, A. S.; Bogan, S.; Moorcroft, P. R.
2017-12-01
Ecosystem composition is a key attribute of terrestrial ecosystems, influencing the fluxes of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. The description of current ecosystem composition has traditionally come from relatively few ground-based inventories of the plant canopy, but are spatially limited and do not provide a comprehensive picture of ecosystem composition at regional or global scales. In this analysis, imaging spectrometry measurements, collected as part of the HyspIRI Preparatory Mission, are used to provide spatially-resolved estimates of plant functional type composition providing an important constraint on terrestrial biosphere model predictions of carbon, water and energy fluxes across the heterogeneous landscapes of the Californian Sierras. These landscapes include oak savannas, mid-elevation mixed pines, fir-cedar forests, and high elevation pines. Our results show that imaging spectrometry measurements can be successfully used to estimate regional-scale variation in ecosystem composition and resulting spatial heterogeneity in patterns of carbon, water and energy fluxes and ecosystem dynamics. Simulations at four flux tower sites within the study region yield patterns of seasonal and inter-annual variation in carbon and water fluxes that have comparable accuracy to simulations initialized from ground-based inventory measurements. Finally, results indicate that during the 2012-2015 Californian drought, regional net carbon fluxes fell by 84%, evaporation and transpiration fluxes fell by 53% and 33% respectively, and sensible heat increase by 51%. This study provides a framework for assimilating near-future global satellite imagery estimates of ecosystem composition with terrestrial biosphere models, constraining and improving their predictions of large-scale ecosystem dynamics and functioning.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jochum, M.; Peacock, S.; Moore, K.; Lindsay, K.
2010-07-01
A global general circulation model coupled to an ocean ecosystem model is used to quantify the response of carbon fluxes and climate to changes in orbital forcing. Compared to the present-day simulation, the simulation with the Earth's orbital parameters from 115,000 years ago features significantly cooler northern high latitudes but only moderately cooler southern high latitudes. This asymmetry is explained by a 30% reduction of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that is caused by an increased Arctic sea ice export and a resulting freshening of the North Atlantic. The strong northern high-latitude cooling and the direct insolation induced tropical warming lead to global shifts in precipitation and winds to the order of 10%-20%. These climate shifts lead to regional differences in air-sea carbon fluxes of the same order. However, the differences in global net air-sea carbon fluxes are small, which is due to several effects, two of which stand out: first, colder sea surface temperature leads to a more effective solubility pump but also to increased sea ice concentration which blocks air-sea exchange, and second, the weakening of Southern Ocean winds that is predicted by some idealized studies occurs only in part of the basin, and is compensated by stronger winds in other parts.
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Simulating Forest Dynamics of Lowland Rainforests in Eastern Madagascar
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Armstrong, Amanda; Fischer, Rico; Huth, Andreas; Shugart, Herman; Fatoyinbo, Temilola
2018-01-01
Ecological modeling and forecasting are essential tools for the understanding of complex vegetation dynamics. The parametric demands of some of these models are often lacking or scant for threatened ecosystems, particularly in diverse tropical ecosystems. One such ecosystem and also one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, Madagascar's lowland rainforests, have disappeared at an alarming rate. The processes that drive tree species growth and distribution remain as poorly understood as the species themselves. We investigated the application of the process-based individual-based FORMIND model to successfully simulate a Madagascar lowland rainforest using previously collected multi-year forest inventory plot data. We inspected the model's ability to characterize growth and species abundance distributions over the study site, and then validated the model with an independently collected forest-inventory dataset from another lowland rainforest in eastern Madagascar. Following a comparative analysis using inventory data from the two study sites, we found that FORMIND accurately captures the structure and biomass of the study forest, with r(squared) values of 0.976, 0.895, and 0.995 for 1:1 lines comparing observed and simulated values across all plant functional types for aboveground biomass (tonnes/ha), stem numbers, and basal area (m(squared)/ha), respectively. Further, in validation with a second study forest site, FORMIND also compared well, only slightly over-estimating shade-intermediate species as compared to the study site, and slightly under-representing shade-tolerant species in percentage of total aboveground biomass. As an important application of the FORMIND model, we measured the net ecosystem exchange (NEE, in tons of carbon per hectare per year) for 50 ha of simulated forest over a 1000-year run from bare ground. We found that NEE values ranged between 1 and -1 t Cha(exp -1)year(exp -1), consequently the study forest can be considered as a net neutral or a very slight carbon sink ecosystem, after the initial 130 years of growth. Our study found that FORMIND represents a valuable tool toward simulating forest dynamics in the immensely diverse Madagascar rainforests.
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Realization of planning design of mechanical manufacturing system by Petri net simulation model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Yanfang; Wan, Xin; Shi, Weixiang
1991-09-01
Planning design is to work out a more overall long-term plan. In order to guarantee a mechanical manufacturing system (MMS) designed to obtain maximum economical benefit, it is necessary to carry out a reasonable planning design for the system. First, some principles on planning design for MMS are introduced. Problems of production scheduling and their decision rules for computer simulation are presented. Realizable method of each production scheduling decision rule in Petri net model is discussed. Second, the solution of conflict rules for conflict problems during running Petri net is given. Third, based on the Petri net model of MMS which includes part flow and tool flow, according to the principle of minimum event time advance, a computer dynamic simulation of the Petri net model, that is, a computer dynamic simulation of MMS, is realized. Finally, the simulation program is applied to a simulation exmple, so the scheme of a planning design for MMS can be evaluated effectively.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bayer, Anita D.; Lindeskog, Mats; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Anthoni, Peter M.; Fuchs, Richard; Arneth, Almut
2017-02-01
Land-use and land-cover (LUC) changes are a key uncertainty when attributing changes in measured atmospheric CO2 concentration to its sinks and sources and must also be much better understood to determine the possibilities for land-based climate change mitigation, especially in the light of human demand on other land-based resources. On the spatial scale typically used in terrestrial ecosystem models (0.5 or 1°) changes in LUC over time periods of a few years or more can include bidirectional changes on the sub-grid level, such as the parallel expansion and abandonment of agricultural land (e.g. in shifting cultivation) or cropland-grassland conversion (and vice versa). These complex changes between classes within a grid cell have often been neglected in previous studies, and only net changes of land between natural vegetation cover, cropland and pastures accounted for, mainly because of a lack of reliable high-resolution historical information on gross land transitions, in combination with technical limitations within the models themselves. In the present study we applied a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model with a detailed representation of croplands and carbon-nitrogen dynamics to quantify the uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes arising from the choice between net and gross representations of LUC. We used three frequently applied global, one recent global and one recent European LUC datasets, two of which resolve gross land transitions, either in Europe or in certain tropical regions. When considering only net changes, land-use-transition uncertainties (expressed as 1 standard deviation around decadal means of four models) in global carbon emissions from LUC (ELUC) are ±0.19, ±0.66 and ±0.47 Pg C a-1 in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively, or between 14 and 39 % of mean ELUC. Carbon stocks at the end of the 20th century vary by ±11 Pg C for vegetation and ±37 Pg C for soil C due to the choice of LUC reconstruction, i.e. around 3 % of the respective C pools. Accounting for sub-grid (gross) land conversions significantly increased the effect of LUC on global and European carbon stocks and fluxes, most noticeably enhancing global cumulative ELUC by 33 Pg C (1750-2014) and entailing a significant reduction in carbon stored in vegetation, although the effect on soil C stocks was limited. Simulations demonstrated that assessments of historical carbon stocks and fluxes are highly uncertain due to the choice of LUC reconstruction and that the consideration of different contrasting LUC reconstructions is needed to account for this uncertainty. The analysis of gross, in addition to net, land-use changes showed that the full complexity of gross land-use changes is required in order to accurately predict the magnitude of LUC change emissions. This introduces technical challenges to process-based models and relies on extensive information regarding historical land-use transitions.
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Liu, J.; Price, D.T.; Chen, J.M.
2005-01-01
A plant–soil nitrogen (N) cycling model was developed and incorporated into the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) of Foley et al. [Foley, J.A., Prentice, I.C., Ramankutty, N., Levis, S., Pollard, D., Sitch, S., Haxeltine, A., 1996. An integrated biosphere model of land surface process, terrestrial carbon balance and vegetation dynamics. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 603–628]. In the N-model, soil mineral N regulates ecosystem carbon (C) fluxes and ecosystem C:N ratios. Net primary productivity (NPP) is controlled by feedbacks from both leaf C:N and soil mineral N. Leaf C:N determines the foliar and canopy photosynthesis rates, while soil mineral N determines the N availability for plant growth and the efficiency of biomass construction. Nitrogen controls on the decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) are implemented through N immobilization and mineralization separately. The model allows greater SOM mineralization at lower mineral N, and conversely, allows greater N immobilization at higher mineral N. The model's seasonal and inter-annual behaviours are demonstrated. A regional simulation for Saskatchewan, Canada, was performed for the period 1851–2000 at a 10 km × 10 km resolution. Simulated NPP was compared with high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) NPP estimated from remote sensing data using the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) [Liu, J., Chen, J.M., Cihlar, J., Park, W.M., 1997. A process-based boreal ecosystem productivity simulator using remote sensing inputs. Remote Sens. Environ. 44, 81–87]. The agreement between IBIS and BEPS, particularly in NPP spatial variation, was considerably improved when the N controls were introduced into IBIS.
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Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Thornton, P. E.; Hoffman, F. M.; Levis, S.; Lawrence, P. J.; Feddema, J. J.; Oleson, K. W.; Lawrence, D. M.
2010-01-01
Fire is an integral Earth System process that interacts with climate in multiple ways. Here we assessed the parametrization of fires in the Community Land Model (CLM-CN) and improved the ability of the model to reproduce contemporary global patterns of burned areas and fire emissions. In addition to wildfires we extended CLM-CN to account for fires related to deforestation. We compared contemporary fire carbon emissions predicted by the model to satellite based estimates in terms of magnitude, spatial extent as well as interannual and seasonal variability. Longterm trends during the 20th century were compared with historical estimates. Overall we found the best agreement between simulation and observations for the fire parametrization based on the work by Arora and Boer (2005). We obtain substantial improvement when we explicitly considered human caused ignition and fire suppression as a function of population density. Simulated fire carbon emissions ranged between 2.0 and 2.4 Pg C/year for the period 1997-2004. Regionally the simulations had a low bias over Africa and a high bias over South America when compared to satellite based products. The net terrestrial carbon source due to land use change for the 1990s was 1.2 Pg C/year with 11% stemming from deforestation fires. During 2000-2004 this flux decreased to 0.85 Pg C/year with a similar relative contribution from deforestation fires. Between 1900 and 1960 we simulated a slight downward trend in global fire emissions, which is explained by reduced fuels as a consequence of wood harvesting and partly by increasing fire suppression. The model predicted an upward trend in the last three decades of the 20th century caused by climate variations and large burning events associated with ENSO induced drought conditions.
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Experiments and simulation of a net closing mechanism for tether-net capture of space debris
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sharf, Inna; Thomsen, Benjamin; Botta, Eleonora M.; Misra, Arun K.
2017-10-01
This research addresses the design and testing of a debris containment system for use in a tether-net approach to space debris removal. The tether-net active debris removal involves the ejection of a net from a spacecraft by applying impulses to masses on the net, subsequent expansion of the net, the envelopment and capture of the debris target, and the de-orbiting of the debris via a tether to the chaser spacecraft. To ensure a debris removal mission's success, it is important that the debris be successfully captured and then, secured within the net. To this end, we present a concept for a net closing mechanism, which we believe will permit consistently successful debris capture via a simple and unobtrusive design. This net closing system functions by extending the main tether connecting the chaser spacecraft and the net vertex to the perimeter and around the perimeter of the net, allowing the tether to actuate closure of the net in a manner similar to a cinch cord. A particular embodiment of the design in a laboratory test-bed is described: the test-bed itself is comprised of a scaled-down tether-net, a supporting frame and a mock-up debris. Experiments conducted with the facility demonstrate the practicality of the net closing system. A model of the net closure concept has been integrated into the previously developed dynamics simulator of the chaser/tether-net/debris system. Simulations under tether tensioning conditions demonstrate the effectiveness of the closure concept for debris containment, in the gravity-free environment of space, for a realistic debris target. The on-ground experimental test-bed is also used to showcase its utility for validating the dynamics simulation of the net deployment, and a full-scale automated setup would make possible a range of validation studies of other aspects of a tether-net debris capture mission.
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Ozone Production from the 2004 North American Boreal Fires
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Pfister, G. G.; Emmons, L. K.; Hess, P. G.; Honrath, R.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Val Martin, M.; Owen, R. C.; Avery, M. A.; Browell, E. V.; Holloway, J. S.;
2006-01-01
We examine the ozone production from boreal forest fires based on a case study of wildfires in Alaska and Canada in summer 2004. The model simulations were performed with the chemistry transport model, MOZART-4, and were evaluated by comparison with a comprehensive set of aircraft measurements. In the analysis we use measurements and model simulations of carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) at the PICO-NARE station located in the Azores within the pathway of North American outflow. The modeled mixing ratios were used to test the robustness of the enhancement ratio deltaO3/deltaCO (defined as the excess O3 mixing ratio normalized by the increase in CO) and the feasibility for using this ratio in estimating the O3 production from the wildfires. Modeled and observed enhancement ratios are about 0.25 ppbv/ppbv which is in the range of values found in the literature, and results in a global net O3 production of 12.9 2 Tg O3 during summer 2004. This matches the net O3 production calculated in the model for a region extending from Alaska to the East Atlantic (9-11 Tg O3) indicating that observations at PICO-NARE representing photochemically well-aged plumes provide a good measure of the O3 production of North American boreal fires. However, net chemical loss of fire related O3 dominates in regions far downwind from the fires (e.g. Europe and Asia) resulting in a global net O3 production of 6 Tg O3 during the same time period. On average, the fires increased the O3 burden (surface-300 mbar) over Alaska and Canada during summer 2004 by about 7-9%, and over Europe by about 2-3%.
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Climate Controls on Carbon Sequestration in Eastern North America
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Peteet, D. M.; Renik, B.; Maenza-Gmeich, T.; Kurdyla, D.; Guilderson, T.
2002-01-01
Mid-latitude forest ecosystems have been proposed as a "missing sink" today. The role of soils (including wetlands) in this proposed sink is a very important unknown. In order to make estimates of future climate change effects on carbon storage, we can examine past wetland carbon sequestration. How did past climate change affect net wetland carbon storage? We present long-term data from existing wetland sites used for paleoclimate reconstruction to assess the net carbon storage in wetland over the last 15000 years. During times of colder and wetter climate, many mid-latitude sites show increases in carbon storage, while past warmer, drier climates produced decreases in storage. Comparison among bog, fen, swamp, and tidal marsh are demonstrated for the Hudson Valley region.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Clay, G. D.; Worrall, F.
2012-04-01
Prescribed burning is a common land management technique in many areas of the UK uplands. However, concern has been expressed at the impact of this management practice on carbon stocks and fluxes found in the carbon rich peat soils that underlie many of these areas. Existing data shows a range of results at differing spatial and temporal scales for a range of carbon pathways e.g. dissolved organic carbon (DOC), yet there are limited studies that monitor a suite of parameters under burning management. This study measured both carbon stocks and carbon fluxes from a chronosequence of prescribed burn sites in northern England. A range of carbon parameters were measured including: above-ground biomass and carbon stocks; net ecosystem exchange (NEE); ecosystem respiration (Reco); photosynthesis (Pg); and particulate organic carbon (POC). CO2 data was analysed using ANOVA to investigate any significant differences between burn years. Carbon budgets were also calculated using measured and modelled data. Analysis of the CO2 data showed that burning was a significant factor in measured CO2 readings but that other factors such as month of sampling explained a greater proportion of the variation in the data. Carbon budget results show that whilst all the sites were net sources of carbon, the most recent burns were smaller sources of carbon compared to the older burns (Burn year 2009: 85 ± 29 gC/m2/yr; Burn year 1999: 152 ± 12 gC/m2/yr). Additionally, the most recent burns were net sinks of gaseous CO2.
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Measures of net oxidant concentration in seawater
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jackson, George A.; Williams, Peter M.
1988-02-01
Dissolved oxygen deficits in the ocean have been used as a measure of the organic matter oxidized in a volume of water. Such organic matter is usually assumed to be predominantly settled particles. Using dissolved oxygen concentration in this way has two problems: first, it does not differentiate between oxidant consumed by the pool of dissolved organic matter present near the ocean surface and oxidant consumed by organic matter contained by falling particles; second, it does not account for other oxidant sources, such as nitrate, which can be as important to organic matter decay as oxygen in low-oxygen water, such as off Peru or in the Southern California submarine basins. New parameters provide better measures of the net oxidant concentration in a water parcel. One such, NetOx, is changed only by gaseous exchange with the atmosphere, exchange with the benthos, or the production or consumption of sinking particles. A simplified version of NetOx, NetOx = [O2] + 1.25[NO3-] - [TOC], where TOC (total organic carbon), the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plus the suspended particulate organic carbon (POC), provides an index based on the usually dominant variables. Calculation of NetOx and a second property, NetOC ([O2] - [TOC]), for data from GEOSECS and ourselves in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans using property-property graphs show differences from those from oxygen deficits alone. Comparison of NetOx and NetOC concentrations at high and low latitudes of the Pacific Ocean shows the difference in surface water oxidant concentrations is even larger than the difference in oxygen concentration. Vertical particle fluxes off Peru calculated from NetOx gradients are much greater than those calculated from oxygen gradients. The potential value of NetOx and NetOC as parameters to understand particle fluxes implies that determination of TOC should be a routine part of hydrographic measurements.
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[Collaborative application of BEPS at different time steps.
Lu, Wei; Fan, Wen Yi; Tian, Tian
2016-09-01
BEPSHourly is committed to simulate the ecological and physiological process of vegetation at hourly time steps, and is often applied to analyze the diurnal change of gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP) at site scale because of its more complex model structure and time-consuming solving process. However, daily photosynthetic rate calculation in BEPSDaily model is simpler and less time-consuming, not involving many iterative processes. It is suitable for simulating the regional primary productivity and analyzing the spatial distribution of regional carbon sources and sinks. According to the characteristics and applicability of BEPSDaily and BEPSHourly models, this paper proposed a method of collaborative application of BEPS at daily and hourly time steps. Firstly, BEPSHourly was used to optimize the main photosynthetic parameters: the maximum rate of carboxylation (V c max ) and the maximum rate of photosynthetic electron transport (J max ) at site scale, and then the two optimized parameters were introduced into BEPSDaily model to estimate regional NPP at regional scale. The results showed that optimization of the main photosynthesis parameters based on the flux data could improve the simulate ability of the model. The primary productivity of different forest types in descending order was deciduous broad-leaved forest, mixed forest, coniferous forest in 2011. The collaborative application of carbon cycle models at different steps proposed in this study could effectively optimize the main photosynthesis parameters V c max and J max , simulate the monthly averaged diurnal GPP, NPP, calculate the regional NPP, and analyze the spatial distribution of regional carbon sources and sinks.
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Impacts of peatland and permafrost changes on the terrestrial carbon storage over the last 21 ka
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Spahni, Renato; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Joos, Fortunat
2014-05-01
Paleoclimate records and global climate-carbon cycle models suggest a net increase in land carbon (C) storage between 300 and 700 Pg C (1 Pg C = 1015 g C) during the transition from the last glacial maximum (LGM), the Holocene up to the preindustrial period. Peat accumulation rate records imply an increase in peatland C of ~600 Pg C over the course of the Holocene. In high northern latitudes mineral and organic soils are subject to permafrost formation, which is believed to have been more extensive during glacial compared to interglacial periods. Soil C in permafrost regions represents the largest inert C pool on land at present. The spatio-temporal evolution, however, of C stocks in soils and vegetation remains poorly quantified and is uncertain. Here, the Land surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX-Bern) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is applied in transient simulations to explore the evolution of permafrost, peatland and vegetation C over the last 21'000 years. The model is forced with temperature and precipitation output from the Trace-21ka climate simulation, and dynamically simulates the formation and disappearance of peatlands and permafrost soils, vegetation distribution and C stocks. Results indicate that peatlands and permfrost areas existed further south in the LGM, in agreement with available proxy information, and that their associated C was lost during the transition into the Holocene. The simulated loss of inert C is over-compensated by vegetation regrowth. The timing of the C relocation on land is compared to observational evidence from paleoclimate archives and estimates from ocean C inventory changes.
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Influence of management and precipitation on carbon fluxes in greatplains grasslands
Rigge, Matthew B.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Zhang, Li; Boyte, Stephen P.
2013-01-01
Suitable management and sufficient precipitation on grasslands can provide carbon sinks. The net carbon accumulation of a site from the atmosphere, modeled as the Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP), is a useful means to gauge carbon balance. Previous research has developed methods to integrate flux tower data with satellite biophysical datasets to estimate NEP across large regions. A related method uses the Ecosystem Performance Anomaly (EPA) as a satellite-derived indicator of disturbance intensity (e.g., livestock stocking rate, fire, and insect damage). To better understand the interactions among management, climate, and carbon dynamics, we evaluated the relationship between EPA and NEP data at the 250 m scale for grasslands in the Central Great Plains, USA (ranging from semi-arid to mesic). We also used weekly estimates of NEP to evaluate the phenology of carbon dynamics, classified by EPA (i.e., by level of disturbance impact). Results show that the cumulative carbon balance over these grasslands from 2000 to 2008 was a weak net sink of 13.7 g C m−2 yr−1. Overall, NEP increased with precipitation (R2 = 0.39, P < 0.05) from west to east. Disturbance influenced NEP phenology; however, climate and biophysical conditions were usually more important. The NEP response to disturbance varies by ecoregion, and more generally by grassland type, where the shortgrass prairie NEP is most sensitive to disturbance, the mixed-grass prairie displays a moderate response, and tallgrass prairie is the least impacted by disturbance (as measured by EPA). Sustainable management practices in the tallgrass and mixed-grass prairie may potentially induce a period of average net carbon sink until a new equilibrium soil organic carbon is achieved. In the shortgrass prairie, management should be considered sustainable if carbon stocks are simply maintained. The consideration of site carbon balance adds to the already difficult task of managing grasslands appropriately to site conditions. Results clarify the seasonal and interannual dynamics of NEP, specifically the influence of disturbance and moisture availability.
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Osinga, Ronald; Derksen-Hooijberg, Marlous; Wijgerde, Tim; Verreth, Johan A J
2017-06-15
Rates of dark respiration and net photosynthesis were measured for six replicate clonal fragments of the stony coral Galaxea fascicularis (Linnaeus 1767), which were incubated under 12 different combinations of dissolved oxygen (20%, 100% and 150% saturation), dissolved carbon dioxide (9.5 and 19.1 µmol l -1 ) and water flow (1-1.6 versus 4-13 cm s -1 ) in a repeated measures design. Dark respiration was enhanced by increased flow and increased oxygen saturation in an interactive way, which relates to improved oxygen influx into the coral tissue. Oxygen saturation did not influence net photosynthesis: neither hypoxia nor hyperoxia affected net photosynthesis, irrespective of flow and pH, which suggests that hyperoxia does not induce high rates of photorespiration in this coral. Flow and pH had a synergistic effect on net photosynthesis: at high flow, a decrease in pH stimulated net photosynthesis by 14%. These results indicate that for this individual of G. fascicularis , increased uptake of carbon dioxide rather than increased efflux of oxygen explains the beneficial effect of water flow on photosynthesis. Rates of net photosynthesis measured in this study are among the highest ever recorded for scleractinian corals and confirm a strong scope for growth. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Parazoo, N.; Barnes, E. A.; Worden, J.; Harper, A. B.; Bowman, K. W.; Frankenberg, C.
2014-12-01
The Texas-northern Mexico high plains experienced record drought conditions in 2011 during strong negative phases of ENSO and the NAO. Given predictions of increased frequency and severity of drought under projected climate change [e.g., Reichstein et al., 2013] and recent findings of CO2 growth rate sensitivity to interannual variability of carbon uptake in semi-arid ecosystems [Poulter et al., 2014], we investigate the response of carbon uptake in the Texas high plains to interannual climate variability with the goal of improved mechanistic understanding of climate-carbon cycle links. Specifically, we examine (1) observed tendencies in regional scale carbon uptake and soil moisture from 2010 to 2011 using satellite observations of gross primary production (GPP) (from plant fluorescence) from GOSAT and soil moisture from SMOS, and (2) the interannual relationship between GPP and ENSO & NAO variability using terrestrial biosphere simulations from 1950-2012. Observations reveal widespread decline of GPP in 2011 (0.42 +/- 0.04 Pg C yr-1) correlated with negative soil moisture tendencies (r = 0.85 +/- 0.21) which leads to corresponding declines in net carbon uptake and transpiration (according to model simulations). Further examination of model results over the period 1950-2012 indicates that negative GPP anomalies are linked systematically to winter and spring precipitation deficits associated with overlapping negative phases of winter NAO and ENSO, with increasing magnitude of negative anomalies in strong La Niña years. Furthermore, the strongest decline of GPP, carbon uptake, and transpiration on record occurred during the 2011 drought and were associated with extreme negative phases of ENSO and NAO, with 2011 being the only year since 1950 that both indices exceeded 1 σ standard deviation.
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The importance of forest structure for carbon fluxes of the Amazon rainforest
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rödig, Edna; Cuntz, Matthias; Rammig, Anja; Fischer, Rico; Taubert, Franziska; Huth, Andreas
2018-05-01
Precise descriptions of forest productivity, biomass, and structure are essential for understanding ecosystem responses to climatic and anthropogenic changes. However, relations between these components are complex, in particular for tropical forests. We developed an approach to simulate carbon dynamics in the Amazon rainforest including around 410 billion individual trees within 7.8 million km2. We integrated canopy height observations from space-borne LIDAR in order to quantify spatial variations in forest state and structure reflecting small-scale to large-scale natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Under current conditions, we identified the Amazon rainforest as a carbon sink, gaining 0.56 GtC per year. This carbon sink is driven by an estimated mean gross primary productivity (GPP) of 25.1 tC ha‑1 a‑1, and a mean woody aboveground net primary productivity (wANPP) of 4.2 tC ha‑1 a‑1. We found that successional states play an important role for the relations between productivity and biomass. Forests in early to intermediate successional states are the most productive, and woody above-ground carbon use efficiencies are non-linear. Simulated values can be compared to observed carbon fluxes at various spatial resolutions (>40 m). Notably, we found that our GPP corresponds to the values derived from MODIS. For NPP, spatial differences can be observed due to the consideration of forest successional states in our approach. We conclude that forest structure has a substantial impact on productivity and biomass. It is an essential factor that should be taken into account when estimating current carbon budgets or analyzing climate change scenarios for the Amazon rainforest.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Defourny, Pierre; Verbeeck, Hans; Moreau, Inès; De Weirdt, Marjolein; Verhegghen, Astrid; Kibambe-Lubamba, Jean-Paul; Jungers, Quentin; Maignan, Fabienne; Najdovski, Nicolas; Poulter, Benjamin; MacBean, Natasha; Peylin, Philippe
2014-05-01
Vegetation is a major carbon sink and is as such a key component of the international response to climate change caused by the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, anthropogenic disturbances like deforestation are the primary mechanism that changes ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources, and are hardly included in the current carbon modelling approaches. Moreover, in tropical regions, the seasonal/interannual variability of carbon fluxes is still uncertain and a weak or even no seasonality is taken into account in global vegetation models. In the context of climate change and mitigation policies like "Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries" (REDD), it is particularly important to be able to quantify and forecast the vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes in these regions. The overall objective of the VEGECLIM project is to increase our knowledge on the terrestrial carbon cycle in tropical regions and to improve the forecast of the vegetation dynamics and carbon stocks and fluxes under different climate-change and deforestation scenarios. Such an approach aims to determine whether the African terrestrial carbon balance will remain a net sink or could become a carbon source by the end of the century, according to different climate-change and deforestation scenarios. The research strategy is to integrate the information of the land surface characterizations obtained from 13 years of consistent SPOT-VEGETATION time series (land cover, vegetation phenology through vegetation indices such as the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI)) as well as in-situ carbon flux data into the process based ORCHIDEE global vegetation model, capable of simulating vegetation dynamics and carbon balance. Key challenge of this project was to bridge the gap between the land cover and the land surface model teams. Several improvements of the ORCHIDEE model have been realized such as a new seasonal leaf dynamics for tropical evergreen forests, the introduction of spatial soil phosphorus to improve the spatial distribution of simulated woody biomass and an assimilation of smoothed seasonal pattern of satellite-based EVI used as a proxy to vegetation productivity. The outputs of the ORCHIDEE simulations over both Amazon and Congo Basins are discussed with regards to the observed phenology by remote sensing.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ding, R.; Rudakov, D. L.; Stangeby, P. C.
Dedicated DIII-D experiments coupled with modeling reveal that the net erosion rate of high-Z materials, i.e. Mo and W, is strongly affected by carbon concentration in the plasma and the magnetic pre-sheath properties. We have investigated different methods such as electrical biasing and local gas injection to control high-Z material erosion. The net erosion rate of high-Z materials is significantly reduced due to the high local re-deposition ratio. The ERO modeling shows that the local re-deposition ratio is mainly controlled by the electric field and plasma density within the magnetic pre-sheath. The net erosion can be significantly suppressed by reducingmore » the sheath potential drop. A high carbon impurity concentration in the background plasma is also found to reduce the net erosion rate of high-Z materials. Both DIII-D experiments and modeling show that local 13CH 4 injection can create a carbon coating on the metal surface. The profile of 13C deposition provides quantitative information on radial transport due to E × B drift and the cross-field diffusion. The deuterium gas injection upstream of the W sample can reduce W net erosion rate by plasma perturbation. The inter-ELM W erosion we measured in H-mode plasmas, rates at different radial locations are well reproduced by ERO modeling taking into account charge-state-resolved carbon ion flux in the background plasma calculated using the OEDGE code.« less
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Kucharzyk, Katarzyna H.; Deshusses, Marc A.; Porter, Kaitlyn A.; ...
2015-07-17
Monomethylmercury (MeHg) is produced in many aquatic environments by anaerobic microorganisms that take up and methylate inorganic forms of Hg(II). Net methylation of Hg(II) appears to be correlated with factors that affect the activity of the anaerobic microbial community and factors that increase the bioavailability of Hg(II) to these organisms. However, the relative importance of one versus the other is difficult to elucidate even though this information can greatly assist remediation efforts and risk assessments. Here in this study, we investigated the effects of Hg speciation (dissolved Hg and nanoparticulate HgS) and microbial activity on the net production of MeHgmore » using two mixed microbial cultures that were enriched from marine sediments under sulfate reducing conditions. The cultures were amended with dissolved Hg (added as a dissolved nitrate salt) and nanoparticulate HgS, and grown under different carbon substrate concentrations. The results indicated that net mercury methylation was the highest for cultures incubated in the greatest carbon substrate concentration (60 mM) compared to incubations with less carbon (0.6 and 6 mM), regardless of the form of mercury amended. Net MeHg production in cultures exposed to HgS nanoparticles was significantly slower than in cultures exposed to dissolved Hg; however, the difference diminished with slower growing cultures with low carbon addition (0.6 mM). The net Hg methylation rate was found to correlate with sulfate reduction rate in cultures exposed to dissolved Hg, while methylation rate was roughly constant for cultures exposed to nanoparticulate HgS. These results indicated a potential threshold of microbial productivity: below this point net MeHg production was limited by microbial activity, regardless of Hg bioavailability. Lastly, above this threshold of productivity, Hg speciation became a contributing factor towards net MeHg production.« less
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Not carbon neutral: Assessing the net emissions impact of residues burned for bioenergy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Booth, Mary S.
2018-03-01
Climate mitigation requires emissions to peak then decline within two decades, but many mitigation models include 100 EJ or more of bioenergy, ignoring emissions from biomass oxidation. Treatment of bioenergy as ‘low carbon’ or carbon neutral often assumes fuels are agricultural or forestry residues that will decompose and emit CO2 if not burned for energy. However, for ‘low carbon’ assumptions about residues to be reasonable, two conditions must be met: biomass must genuinely be material left over from some other process; and cumulative net emissions, the additional CO2 emitted by burning biomass compared to its alternative fate, must be low or negligible in a timeframe meaningful for climate mitigation. This study assesses biomass use and net emissions from the US bioenergy and wood pellet manufacturing sectors. It defines the ratio of cumulative net emissions to combustion, manufacturing and transport emissions as the net emissions impact (NEI), and evaluates the NEI at year 10 and beyond for a variety of scenarios. The analysis indicates the US industrial bioenergy sector mostly burns black liquor and has an NEI of 20% at year 10, while the NEI for plants burning forest residues ranges from 41%-95%. Wood pellets have a NEI of 55%-79% at year 10, with net CO2 emissions of 14-20 tonnes for every tonne of pellets; by year 40, the NEI is 26%-54%. Net emissions may be ten times higher at year 40 if whole trees are harvested for feedstock. Projected global pellet use would generate around 1% of world bioenergy with cumulative net emissions of 2 Gt of CO2 by 2050. Using the NEI to weight biogenic CO2 for inclusion in carbon trading programs and to qualify bioenergy for renewable energy subsidies would reduce emissions more effectively than the current assumption of carbon neutrality.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Albright, R.; Langdon, C.; Anthony, K. R. N.
2013-10-01
Ocean acidification is projected to shift coral reefs from a state of net accretion to one of net dissolution this century. Presently, our ability to predict global-scale changes to coral reef calcification is limited by insufficient data relating seawater carbonate chemistry parameters to in situ rates of reef calcification. Here, we investigate diel and seasonal trends in carbonate chemistry of the Davies Reef flat in the central Great Barrier Reef and relate these trends to benthic carbon fluxes by quantifying net ecosystem calcification (nec) and net community production (ncp). Results show that seawater carbonate chemistry of the Davies Reef flat is highly variable over both diel and seasonal cycles. pH (total scale) ranged from 7.92 to 8.17, pCO2 ranged from 272 to 542 μatm, and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) ranged from 2.9 to 4.1. Diel cycles in carbonate chemistry were primarily driven by ncp, and warming explained 35% and 47% of the seasonal shifts in pCO2 and pH, respectively. Daytime ncp averaged 37 ± 19 mmol C m-2 h-1 in summer and 33 ± 13 mmol C m-2 h-1 in winter; nighttime ncp averaged -30 ± 25 and -7 ± 6 mmol C m-2 h-1 in summer and winter, respectively. Daytime nec averaged 11 ± 4 mmol CaCO3 m-2 h-1 in summer and 8 ± 3 mmol CaCO3 m-2 h-1 in winter, whereas nighttime nec averaged 2 ± 4 mmol and -1 ± 3 mmol CaCO3 m-2 h-1 in summer and winter, respectively. Net ecosystem calcification was highly sensitive to changes in Ωarag for both seasons, indicating that relatively small shifts in Ωarag may drive measurable shifts in calcification rates, and hence carbon budgets, of coral reefs throughout the year.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.
2013-11-01
In order to develop a system to estimate a country-scale soil organic carbon stock change (SCSC) in agricultural lands in Japan that enables to take account effect of land-use changes, climate, different agricultural activity and nature of soils, a spatially-explicit model simulation system using Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) integrated with spatial and temporal inventories was developed. Future scenarios on agricultural activity and land-use change were prepared, in addition to future climate projections by global climate models, with purposely selecting rather exaggerated and contrasting set of scenarios to assess system's sensitivity as well as to better factor out direct human influence in the SCSC accounting. Simulation was run from year 1970 to 2008, and to year 2020, with historical inventories and future scenarios involving target set in agricultural policy, respectively, and subsequently until year 2100 with no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity but with varying climate to investigate course of SCSC. Results of the country-scale SCSC simulation have indicated that conversion of paddy fields to croplands occurred during past decades, as well as a large conversion of agricultural fields to settlements or other lands that have occurred in historical period and would continue in future, could act as main factors causing greater loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) at country-scale, with reduction organic carbon input to soils and enhancement of SOC decomposition by transition of soil environment to aerobic conditions, respectively. Scenario analysis indicated that an option to increase organic carbon input to soils with intensified rotation with suppressing conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types could achieve reduction of CO2 emission due to SCSC in the same level as that of another option to let agricultural fields be abandoned. These results emphasize that land-use changes, especially conversion of the agricultural lands to other land-use types by abandoning or urbanization accompanied by substantial changes in the rate of organic carbon input to soils, could cause a greater or comparable influence on country-scale SCSC compared with changes in management of agricultural lands. A net-net based accounting on SCSC showed potential influence of variations in future climate on SCSC, that highlighted importance of application of process-based model for estimation of this quantity. Whereas a baseline-based accounting on SCSC was shown to have robustness over variations in future climate and effectiveness to factor out direct human-induced influence on SCSC. Validation of the system's function to estimate SCSC in agricultural lands, by comparing simulation output with data from nation-wide stationary monitoring conducted during year 1979-1998, suggested that the system has an acceptable levels of validity, though only for limited range of conditions at current stage. In addition to uncertainties in estimation of the rate of organic carbon input to soils in different land-use types at large-scale, time course of SOC sequestration, supposition on land-use change pattern in future, as well as feasibility of agricultural policy planning are considered as important factors that need to be taken account in estimation on a potential of country-scale SCSC.
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Carbon Cycling Studies in Forest and Rangeland Ecosystems of Northern and Central Coastal California
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Potter, C.; Klooster, S.; Gross, P.; Hiatt, S.; Genovese, V.
2008-12-01
The varied topography and micro-climates of northern and central coastal California result in high biodiversity and many different levels of primary production driving regional carbon cycles. Coastal mountains trap moisture from low clouds and fog in summer to supplement rainfall in winter. This creates a favorable micro-environment for coniferous forests, including the southernmost habitat of the coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens), which grows mainly on lower north-facing slopes in Big Sur. In rain shadows, forests transition to open oak woodland, and then into the more fire-tolerant chaparral and coast scrub. Field sites for our on-going climate change studies on the California northern and central coasts currently include the University of California Santa Cruz Campus Natural Reserve, the US Forest Service Brazil Ranch, and the University of California Big Creek Reserve. We are conducting research at each of these sites to better understand possible impacts of climate change, including: (1) biological and physical capacity of soils to capture carbon and retain plant-essential nutrients; (2) rates of plant-soil water and carbon cycling and energy flow; and (3) recovery mechanisms for disturbances such as invasive weed species, grazing, and wildfire. The NASA-CASA simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to estimate carbon cycling for much of the central coast as far north as Mendocino County. Net primary production (NPP) of all vegetation cover was mapped at 30-meter resolution for selected years by combining MODIS and Landsat images across the region. Results show annual NPP predictions of between 200-400 grams C per square meter for coastal scrub and 800-1200 grams C per square meter for coastal evergreen forests, Net ecosystem fluxes of carbon will be presented for the region based on NASA-CASA modeling and field measurements of soil respiration fluxes.
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Optimized biogas-fermentation by neural network control.
Holubar, P; Zani, L; Hager, M; Fröschl, W; Radak, Z; Braun, R
2003-01-01
In this work several feed-forward back-propagation neural networks (FFBP) were trained in order to model, and subsequently control, methane production in anaerobic digesters. To produce data for the training of the neural nets, four anaerobic continuous stirred tank reactors (CSTR) were operated in steady-state conditions at organic loading rates (Br) of about 2 kg x m(-3) x d(-1) chemical oxygen demand (COD), and disturbed by pulse-like increase of the organic loading rate. For the pulses additional carbon sources were added to the basic feed (surplus- and primary sludge) to simulate cofermentation and to increase the COD. Measured parameters were: gas composition, methane production rate, volatile fatty acid concentration, pH, redox potential, volatile suspended solids and COD of feed and effluent. A hierarchical system of neural nets was developed and embedded in a Decision Support System (DSS). A 3-3-1 FFBP simulated the pH with a regression coefficient of 0.82. A 9-3-3 FFBP simulated the volatile fatty acid concentration in the sludge with a regression coefficient of 0.86. And a 9-3-2 FFBP simulated the gas production and gas composition with a regression coefficient of 0.90 and 0.80 respectively. A lab-scale anaerobic CSTR controlled by this tool was able to maintain a methane concentration of about 60% at a rather high gas production rate of between 5 to 5.6 m3 x m(-3) x d(-1).
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Zhou, Y; Murata, T; Defanti, T A
2000-01-01
Despite their attractive properties, networked virtual environments (net-VEs) are notoriously difficult to design, implement, and test due to the concurrency, real-time and networking features in these systems. Net-VEs demand high quality-of-service (QoS) requirements on the network to maintain natural and real-time interactions among users. The current practice for net-VE design is basically trial and error, empirical, and totally lacks formal methods. This paper proposes to apply a Petri net formal modeling technique to a net-VE-NICE (narrative immersive constructionist/collaborative environment), predict the net-VE performance based on simulation, and improve the net-VE performance. NICE is essentially a network of collaborative virtual reality systems called the CAVE-(CAVE automatic virtual environment). First, we introduce extended fuzzy-timing Petri net (EFTN) modeling and analysis techniques. Then, we present EFTN models of the CAVE, NICE, and transport layer protocol used in NICE: transmission control protocol (TCP). We show the possibility analysis based on the EFTN model for the CAVE. Then, by using these models and design/CPN as the simulation tool, we conducted various simulations to study real-time behavior, network effects and performance (latencies and jitters) of NICE. Our simulation results are consistent with experimental data.
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Carbonate system parameters of an algal-dominated reef along West Maui
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Prouty, Nancy G.; Yates, Kimberly K.; Smiley, Nathan; Gallagher, Chris; Cheriton, Olivia; Storlazzi, Curt D.
2018-04-01
Constraining coral reef metabolism and carbon chemistry dynamics are fundamental for understanding and predicting reef vulnerability to rising coastal CO2 concentrations and decreasing seawater pH. However, few studies exist along reefs occupying densely inhabited shorelines with known input from land-based sources of pollution. The shallow coral reefs off Kahekili, West Maui, are exposed to nutrient-enriched, low-pH submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and are particularly vulnerable to the compounding stressors from land-based sources of pollution and lower seawater pH. To constrain the carbonate chemistry system, nutrients and carbonate chemistry were measured along the Kahekili reef flat every 4 h over a 6-day sampling period in March 2016. Abiotic process - primarily SGD fluxes - controlled the carbonate chemistry adjacent to the primary SGD vent site, with nutrient-laden freshwater decreasing pH levels and favoring undersaturated aragonite saturation (Ωarag) conditions. In contrast, diurnal variability in the carbonate chemistry at other sites along the reef flat was driven by reef community metabolism. Superimposed on the diurnal signal was a transition during the second sampling period to a surplus of total alkalinity (TA) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) compared to ocean endmember TA and DIC measurements. A shift from positive net community production and positive net community calcification to negative net community production and negative net community calcification was identified. This transition occurred during a period of increased SGD-driven nutrient loading, lower wave height, and reduced current speeds. This detailed study of carbon chemistry dynamics highlights the need to incorporate local effects of nearshore oceanographic processes into predictions of coral reef vulnerability and resilience.
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Reversal of ocean acidification enhances net coral reef calcification.
Albright, Rebecca; Caldeira, Lilian; Hosfelt, Jessica; Kwiatkowski, Lester; Maclaren, Jana K; Mason, Benjamin M; Nebuchina, Yana; Ninokawa, Aaron; Pongratz, Julia; Ricke, Katharine L; Rivlin, Tanya; Schneider, Kenneth; Sesboüé, Marine; Shamberger, Kathryn; Silverman, Jacob; Wolfe, Kennedy; Zhu, Kai; Caldeira, Ken
2016-03-17
Approximately one-quarter of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere each year is absorbed by the global oceans, causing measurable declines in surface ocean pH, carbonate ion concentration ([CO3(2-)]), and saturation state of carbonate minerals (Ω). This process, referred to as ocean acidification, represents a major threat to marine ecosystems, in particular marine calcifiers such as oysters, crabs, and corals. Laboratory and field studies have shown that calcification rates of many organisms decrease with declining pH, [CO3(2-)], and Ω. Coral reefs are widely regarded as one of the most vulnerable marine ecosystems to ocean acidification, in part because the very architecture of the ecosystem is reliant on carbonate-secreting organisms. Acidification-induced reductions in calcification are projected to shift coral reefs from a state of net accretion to one of net dissolution this century. While retrospective studies show large-scale declines in coral, and community, calcification over recent decades, determining the contribution of ocean acidification to these changes is difficult, if not impossible, owing to the confounding effects of other environmental factors such as temperature. Here we quantify the net calcification response of a coral reef flat to alkalinity enrichment, and show that, when ocean chemistry is restored closer to pre-industrial conditions, net community calcification increases. In providing results from the first seawater chemistry manipulation experiment of a natural coral reef community, we provide evidence that net community calcification is depressed compared with values expected for pre-industrial conditions, indicating that ocean acidification may already be impairing coral reef growth.
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Reversal of ocean acidification enhances net coral reef calcification
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Albright, Rebecca; Caldeira, Lilian; Hosfelt, Jessica; Kwiatkowski, Lester; MacLaren, Jana K.; Mason, Benjamin M.; Nebuchina, Yana; Ninokawa, Aaron; Pongratz, Julia; Ricke, Katharine L.; Rivlin, Tanya; Schneider, Kenneth; Sesboüé, Marine; Shamberger, Kathryn; Silverman, Jacob; Wolfe, Kennedy; Zhu, Kai; Caldeira, Ken
2016-03-01
Approximately one-quarter of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere each year is absorbed by the global oceans, causing measurable declines in surface ocean pH, carbonate ion concentration ([CO32-]), and saturation state of carbonate minerals (Ω). This process, referred to as ocean acidification, represents a major threat to marine ecosystems, in particular marine calcifiers such as oysters, crabs, and corals. Laboratory and field studies have shown that calcification rates of many organisms decrease with declining pH, [CO32-], and Ω. Coral reefs are widely regarded as one of the most vulnerable marine ecosystems to ocean acidification, in part because the very architecture of the ecosystem is reliant on carbonate-secreting organisms. Acidification-induced reductions in calcification are projected to shift coral reefs from a state of net accretion to one of net dissolution this century. While retrospective studies show large-scale declines in coral, and community, calcification over recent decades, determining the contribution of ocean acidification to these changes is difficult, if not impossible, owing to the confounding effects of other environmental factors such as temperature. Here we quantify the net calcification response of a coral reef flat to alkalinity enrichment, and show that, when ocean chemistry is restored closer to pre-industrial conditions, net community calcification increases. In providing results from the first seawater chemistry manipulation experiment of a natural coral reef community, we provide evidence that net community calcification is depressed compared with values expected for pre-industrial conditions, indicating that ocean acidification may already be impairing coral reef growth.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ma, Ning; Niu, Guo-Yue; Xia, Youlong; Cai, Xitian; Zhang, Yinsheng; Ma, Yaoming; Fang, Yuanhao
2017-11-01
Accurate simulation of energy, water, and carbon fluxes exchanging between the land surface and the atmosphere is beneficial for improving terrestrial ecohydrological and climate predictions. We systematically assessed the Noah land surface model (LSM) with mutiparameterization options (Noah-MP) in simulating these fluxes and associated variations in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and snow cover fraction (SCF) against various reference products over 18 United States Geological Survey two-digital hydrological unit code regions of the continental United States (CONUS). In general, Noah-MP captures better the observed seasonal and interregional variability of net radiation, SCF, and runoff than other variables. With a dynamic vegetation model, it overestimates gross primary productivity by 40% and evapotranspiration (ET) by 22% over the whole CONUS domain; however, with a prescribed climatology of leaf area index, it greatly improves ET simulation with relative bias dropping to 4%. It accurately simulates regional TWS dynamics in most regions except those with large lakes or severely affected by irrigation and/or impoundments. Incorporating the lake water storage variations into the modeled TWS variations largely reduces the TWS simulation bias more obviously over the Great Lakes with model efficiency increasing from 0.18 to 0.76. Noah-MP simulates runoff well in most regions except an obvious overestimation (underestimation) in the Rio Grande and Lower Colorado (New England). Compared with North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) LSMs, Noah-MP shows a better ability to simulate runoff and a comparable skill in simulating Rn but a worse skill in simulating ET over most regions. This study suggests that future model developments should focus on improving the representations of vegetation dynamics, lake water storage dynamics, and human activities including irrigation and impoundments.
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Accelerating net terrestrial carbon uptake during the warming hiatus due to reduced respiration
Ashley Ballantyne; William Smith; William Anderegg; Pekka Kauppi; Jorge Sarmiento; Pieter Tans; Elena Shevliakova; Yude Pan; Benjamin Poulter; Alessandro Anav; Pierre Friedlingstein; Richard Houghton; Steven Running
2017-01-01
The recent 'warming hiatus' presents an excellent opportunity to investigate climate sensitivity of carbon cycle processes. Here we combine satellite and atmospheric observations to show that the rate of net biome productivity (NBP) has significantly accelerated from-0.007 ± 0.065 PgC yr-2 over the warming period (1982 to 1998) to 0.119...
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D.M. Olson; T.J. Griffis; A. Noormets; R. Kolka; J. Chen
2013-01-01
Three years (2009-2011) of near-continuous methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes were measured with the eddy covariance (EC) technique at a temperate peatland located within the Marcell Experimental Forest, in northern Minnesota, USA. The peatland was a net source of CH4 and a net sink of CO...
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Relationships between net primary productivity and forest stand age in U.S. forests
Liming He; Jing M. Chen; Yude Pan; Richard Birdsey; Jens Kattge
2012-01-01
Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key flux in the terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance, as it summarizes the autotrophic input into the system. Forest NPP varies predictably with stand age, and quantitative information on the NPP-age relationship for different regions and forest types is therefore fundamentally important for forest carbon cycle modeling. We used four...
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N. L. Harris; S. C. Hagen; S. S. Saatchi; T. R. H. Pearson; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; B. H. Braswell; Brian F. Walters; S. Brown; W. Salas; A. Fore; Y. Yu
2016-01-01
Background: Locating terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon (C) will be critical to developing strategies that contribute to the climate change mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement. Here we present spatially resolved estimates of net C change across United States (US) forest lands between 2006 and 2010 and attribute them to natural and anthropogenic processes....
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Fates of eroded soil organic carbon: Mississippi Basin case study
Smith, S.V.; Sleezer, R.O.; Renwick, W.H.; Buddemeier, R.W.
2005-01-01
We have developed a mass balance analysis of organic carbon (OC) across the five major river subsystems of the Mississippi (MS) Basin (an area of 3.2 ?? 106 km2). This largely agricultural landscape undergoes a bulk soil erosion rate of ???480 t??km -2??yr-1 (???1500 ?? 106 t/yr, across the MS Basin), and a soil organic carbon (SOC) erosion rate of ???7 t??km-2??yr-1 (???22 ?? 106 t/yr). Erosion translocates upland SOC to alluvial deposits, water impoundments, and the ocean. Soil erosion is generally considered to be a net source of CO2 release to the atmosphere in global budgets. However, our results indicate that SOC erosion and relocation of soil apparently can reduce the net SOC oxidation rate of the original upland SOC while promoting net replacement of eroded SOC in upland soils that were eroded. Soil erosion at the MS Basin scale is, therefore, a net CO2 sink rather than a source. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.
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Recent acceleration of biomass burning and carbon losses in Alaskan forests and peatlands
Turetsky, M.R.; Kane, E.S.; Harden, J.W.; Ottmar, R.D.; Manies, K.L.; Hoy, E.; Kasischke, E.S.
2011-01-01
Climate change has increased the area affected by forest fires each year in boreal North America. Increases in burned area and fire frequency are expected to stimulate boreal carbon losses. However, the impact of wildfires on carbon emissions is also affected by the severity of burning. How climate change influences the severity of biomass burning has proved difficult to assess. Here, we examined the depth of ground-layer combustion in 178 sites dominated by black spruce in Alaska, using data collected from 31 fire events between 1983 and 2005. We show that the depth of burning increased as the fire season progressed when the annual area burned was small. However, deep burning occurred throughout the fire season when the annual area burned was large. Depth of burning increased late in the fire season in upland forests, but not in peatland and permafrost sites. Simulations of wildfire-induced carbon losses from Alaskan black spruce stands over the past 60 years suggest that ground-layer combustion has accelerated regional carbon losses over the past decade, owing to increases in burn area and late-season burning. As a result, soils in these black spruce stands have become a net source of carbon to the atmosphere, with carbon emissions far exceeding decadal uptake.
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Modeling vegetation and carbon dynamics of managed grasslands at the global scale with LPJmL 3.6
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rolinski, Susanne; Müller, Christoph; Heinke, Jens; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bondeau, Alberte; Boons-Prins, Eltje R.; Bouwman, Alexander F.; Leffelaar, Peter A.; te Roller, Johnny A.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thonicke, Kirsten
2018-02-01
Grassland management affects the carbon fluxes of one-third of the global land area and is thus an important factor for the global carbon budget. Nonetheless, this aspect has been largely neglected or underrepresented in global carbon cycle models. We investigate four harvesting schemes for the managed grassland implementation of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) that facilitate a better representation of actual management systems globally. We describe the model implementation and analyze simulation results with respect to harvest, net primary productivity and soil carbon content and by evaluating them against reported grass yields in Europe. We demonstrate the importance of accounting for differences in grassland management by assessing potential livestock grazing densities as well as the impacts of grazing, grazing intensities and mowing systems on soil carbon stocks. Grazing leads to soil carbon losses in polar or arid regions even at moderate livestock densities (< 0.4 livestock units per hectare - LSU ha-1) but not in temperate regions even at much higher densities (0.4 to 1.2 LSU ha-1). Applying LPJmL with the new grassland management options enables assessments of the global grassland production and its impact on the terrestrial biogeochemical cycles but requires a global data set on current grassland management.
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Historical and future perspectives of global soil carbon response to climate and land-use changes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Eglin, T.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S. L.; Barre, P.; Bellassen, V.; Cadule, P.; Chenu, C.; Gasser, T.; Koven, C.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, P.
2010-11-01
ABSTRACT In this paper, we attempt to analyse the respective influences of land-use and climate changes on the global and regional balances of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Two time periods are analysed: the historical period 1901-2000 and the period 2000-2100. The historical period is analysed using a synthesis of published data as well as new global and regional model simulations, and the future is analysed using models only. Historical land cover changes have resulted globally in SOC release into the atmosphere. This human induced SOC decrease was nearly balanced by the net SOC increase due to higher CO2 and rainfall. Mechanization of agriculture after the 1950s has accelerated SOC losses in croplands, whereas development of carbon-sequestering practices over the past decades may have limited SOC loss from arable soils. In some regions (Europe, China and USA), croplands are currently estimated to be either a small C sink or a small source, but not a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. In the future, according to terrestrial biosphere and climate models projections, both climate and land cover changes might cause a net SOC loss, particularly in tropical regions. The timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of future SOC changes are all highly uncertain. Reducing this uncertainty requires improving future anthropogenic CO2 emissions and land-use scenarios and better understanding of biogeochemical processes that control SOC turnover, for both managed and un-managed ecosystems.
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Validated simulator for space debris removal with nets and other flexible tethers applications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gołębiowski, Wojciech; Michalczyk, Rafał; Dyrek, Michał; Battista, Umberto; Wormnes, Kjetil
2016-12-01
In the context of active debris removal technologies and preparation activities for the e.Deorbit mission, a simulator for net-shaped elastic bodies dynamics and their interactions with rigid bodies, has been developed. Its main application is to aid net design and test scenarios for space debris deorbitation. The simulator can model all the phases of the debris capturing process: net launch, flight and wrapping around the target. It handles coupled simulation of rigid and flexible bodies dynamics. Flexible bodies were implemented using Cosserat rods model. It allows to simulate flexible threads or wires with elasticity and damping for stretching, bending and torsion. Threads may be combined into structures of any topology, so the software is able to simulate nets, pure tethers, tether bundles, cages, trusses, etc. Full contact dynamics was implemented. Programmatic interaction with simulation is possible - i.e. for control implementation. The underlying model has been experimentally validated and due to significant gravity influence, experiment had to be performed in microgravity conditions. Validation experiment for parabolic flight was a downscaled process of Envisat capturing. The prepacked net was launched towards the satellite model, it expanded, hit the model and wrapped around it. The whole process was recorded with 2 fast stereographic camera sets for full 3D trajectory reconstruction. The trajectories were used to compare net dynamics to respective simulations and then to validate the simulation tool. The experiments were performed on board of a Falcon-20 aircraft, operated by National Research Council in Ottawa, Canada. Validation results show that model reflects phenomenon physics accurately enough, so it may be used for scenario evaluation and mission design purposes. The functionalities of the simulator are described in detail in the paper, as well as its underlying model, sample cases and methodology behind validation. Results are presented and typical use cases are discussed showing that the software may be used to design throw nets for space debris capturing, but also to simulate deorbitation process, chaser control system or general interactions between rigid and elastic bodies - all in convenient and efficient way. The presented work was led by SKA Polska under the ESA contract, within the CleanSpace initiative.
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Size and frequency of natural forest disturbances and the Amazon forest carbon balance
Espírito-Santo, Fernando D.B.; Gloor, Manuel; Keller, Michael; Malhi, Yadvinder; Saatchi, Sassan; Nelson, Bruce; Junior, Raimundo C. Oliveira; Pereira, Cleuton; Lloyd, Jon; Frolking, Steve; Palace, Michael; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.; Duarte, Valdete; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; López-González, Gabriela; Baker, Tim R.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Brienen, Roel J.W.; Asner, Gregory P.; Boyd, Doreen S.; Phillips, Oliver L.
2014-01-01
Forest inventory studies in the Amazon indicate a large terrestrial carbon sink. However, field plots may fail to represent forest mortality processes at landscape-scales of tropical forests. Here we characterize the frequency distribution of disturbance events in natural forests from 0.01 ha to 2,651 ha size throughout Amazonia using a novel combination of forest inventory, airborne lidar and satellite remote sensing data. We find that small-scale mortality events are responsible for aboveground biomass losses of ~1.7 Pg C y−1 over the entire Amazon region. We also find that intermediate-scale disturbances account for losses of ~0.2 Pg C y−1, and that the largest-scale disturbances as a result of blow-downs only account for losses of ~0.004 Pg C y−1. Simulation of growth and mortality indicates that even when all carbon losses from intermediate and large-scale disturbances are considered, these are outweighed by the net biomass accumulation by tree growth, supporting the inference of an Amazon carbon sink. PMID:24643258
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Size and frequency of natural forest disturbances and the Amazon forest carbon balance.
Espírito-Santo, Fernando D B; Gloor, Manuel; Keller, Michael; Malhi, Yadvinder; Saatchi, Sassan; Nelson, Bruce; Junior, Raimundo C Oliveira; Pereira, Cleuton; Lloyd, Jon; Frolking, Steve; Palace, Michael; Shimabukuro, Yosio E; Duarte, Valdete; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; López-González, Gabriela; Baker, Tim R; Feldpausch, Ted R; Brienen, Roel J W; Asner, Gregory P; Boyd, Doreen S; Phillips, Oliver L
2014-03-18
Forest inventory studies in the Amazon indicate a large terrestrial carbon sink. However, field plots may fail to represent forest mortality processes at landscape-scales of tropical forests. Here we characterize the frequency distribution of disturbance events in natural forests from 0.01 ha to 2,651 ha size throughout Amazonia using a novel combination of forest inventory, airborne lidar and satellite remote sensing data. We find that small-scale mortality events are responsible for aboveground biomass losses of ~1.7 Pg C y(-1) over the entire Amazon region. We also find that intermediate-scale disturbances account for losses of ~0.2 Pg C y(-1), and that the largest-scale disturbances as a result of blow-downs only account for losses of ~0.004 Pg C y(-1). Simulation of growth and mortality indicates that even when all carbon losses from intermediate and large-scale disturbances are considered, these are outweighed by the net biomass accumulation by tree growth, supporting the inference of an Amazon carbon sink.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Saleska, Scott; Davidson, Eric; Finzi, Adrien
This project combines automated in situ observations of the isotopologues of CO 2 with root observations, novel experimental manipulations of below ground processes, and isotope-enabled ecosystem modeling to investigate mechanisms of below- vs. above ground carbon sequestration at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurements Site (EMS). The proposed objectives, which have now been largely accomplished, include: (A) Partitioning of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) into photosynthesis and respiration using long-term continuous observations of the isotopic composition of NEE, and analysis of their dynamics; (B) Investigation of the influence of vegetation phenology on the timing and magnitude of carbon allocated below groundmore » using measurements of root growth and indices of below ground autotrophic vs. heterotrophic respiration (via trenched plots andisotope measurements); (C) Testing whether plant allocation of carbon below ground stimulates the microbial decomposition of soil organic matter, using in situ rhizosphere simulation experiments wherein realistic quantities of artificial isotopically-labeled exudates are released into the soil; and (D) Synthesis and interpretation of the above data using the Ecosystem Demography Model 2 (ED2).« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Davidson, Eric A.; Saleska, Scott; Savage, Kathleen
1. Project Summary and Objectives This project combines automated in situ observations of the isotopologues of CO 2 with root observations, novel experimental manipulations of belowground processes, and isotope-enabled ecosystem modeling to investigate mechanisms of below- vs. aboveground carbon sequestration at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurements Site (EMS). The proposed objectives, which have now been largely accomplished, include: A. Partitioning of net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE) into photosynthesis and respiration using long-term continuous observations of the isotopic composition of NEE, and analysis of their dynamics ; B. Investigation of the influence of vegetation phenology on the timing and magnitudemore » of carbon allocated belowground using measurements of root growth and indices of belowground autotrophic vs. heterotrophic respiration (via trenched plots and isotope measurements); C. Testing whether plant allocation of carbon belowground stimulates the microbial decomposition of soil organic matter, using in situ rhizosphere simulation experiments wherein realistic quantities of artificial isotopically-labeled exudates are released into the soil; and D. Synthesis and interpretation of the above data using the Ecosystem Demography Model 2 (ED2).« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jia, B.; Xie, Z.
2017-12-01
Climate change and anthropogenic activities have been exerting profound influences on ecosystem function and processes, including tightly coupled terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, their relative contributions of the key controlling factors, e.g., climate, CO2 fertilization, land use and land cover change (LULCC), on spatial-temporal patterns of terrestrial carbon and water fluxes in China are still not well understood due to the lack of ecosystem-level flux observations and uncertainties in single terrestrial biosphere model (TBM). In the present study, we quantified the effect of climate, CO2, and LULCC on terrestrial carbon and water fluxes in China using multi-model simulations for their inter-annual variability (IAV), seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) and long-term trend during the past five decades (1961-2010). In addition, their relative contributions to the temporal variations of gross primary productivity (GPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and evapotranspiration (ET) were investigated through factorial experiments. Finally, the discussions about the inter-model differences and model uncertainties were presented.
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Remote sensing of a coupled carbon-water-energy-radiation balances from the Globe to plot scales
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ryu, Y.; Jiang, C.; Huang, Y.; Kim, J.; Hwang, Y.; Kimm, H.; Kim, S.
2016-12-01
Advancements in near-surface and satellite remote sensing technologies have enabled us to monitor the global terrestrial ecosystems at multiple spatial and temporal scales. An emergent challenge is how to formulate a coupled water, carbon, energy, radiation, and nitrogen cycles from remote sensing. Here, we report Breathing Earth System Simulator (BESS), which coupled radiation (shortwave, longwave, PAR, diffuse PAR), carbon (gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, net ecosystem exchange), water (evaporation), and energy (latent and sensible heat) balances across the global land at 1 km resolution, 8 daily between 2000 and 2015 using multiple satellite remote sensing. The performance of BESS was tested against field observations (FLUXNET, BSRN) and other independent products (MPI-BGC, MODIS, GLASS). We found that the coupled model, BESS showed on par with, or better performance than the other products which computed land surface fluxes individually. Lastly, we show one plot-level study conducted in a paddy rice to demonstrate how to couple radiation, carbon, water, nitrogen balances with a series of near-surface spectral sensors.
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Modest net autotrophy in the oligotrophic ocean
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Letscher, Robert T.; Moore, J. Keith
2017-04-01
The metabolic state of the oligotrophic subtropical ocean has long been debated. Net community production (NCP) represents the balance of autotrophic carbon fixation with heterotrophic respiration. Many in vitro NCP estimates based on oxygen incubation methods and the corresponding scaling relationships used to predict the ecosystem metabolic balance have suggested the ocean gyres to be net heterotrophic; however, all in situ NCP methods find net autotrophy. Reconciling net heterotrophy requires significant allochthonous inputs of organic carbon to the oligotrophic gyres to sustain a preponderance of respiration over in situ production. Here we use the first global ecosystem-ocean circulation model that contains representation of the three allochthonous carbon sources to the open ocean, to show that the five oligotrophic gyres exhibit modest net autotrophy throughout the seasonal cycle. Annually integrated rates of NCP vary in the range 1.5-2.2 mol O2 m-2 yr-1 across the five gyre systems; however, seasonal NCP rates are as low as 1 ± 0.5 mmol O2 m-2 d-1 for the North Atlantic. Volumetric NCP rates are heterotrophic below the 10% light level; however, they become net autotrophic when integrated over the euphotic zone. Observational uncertainties when measuring these modest autotrophic NCP rates as well as the metabolic diversity encountered across space and time complicate the scaling up of in vitro measurements to the ecosystem scale and may partially explain the previous reports of net heterotrophy. The oligotrophic ocean is autotrophic at present; however, it could shift toward seasonal heterotrophy in the future as rising temperatures stimulate respiration.
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Drought sensitivity of Amazonian carbon balance revealed by atmospheric measurements
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gatti, L. V.; Gloor, M.; Miller, J. B.; Doughty, C. E.; Malhi, Y.; Domingues, L. G.; Basso, L. S.; Martinewski, A.; Correia, C. S. C.; Borges, V. F.; Freitas, S.; Braz, R.; Anderson, L. O.; Rocha, H.; Grace, J.; Phillips, O. L.; Lloyd, J.
2014-02-01
Feedbacks between land carbon pools and climate provide one of the largest sources of uncertainty in our predictions of global climate. Estimates of the sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget to climate anomalies in the tropics and the identification of the mechanisms responsible for feedback effects remain uncertain. The Amazon basin stores a vast amount of carbon, and has experienced increasingly higher temperatures and more frequent floods and droughts over the past two decades. Here we report seasonal and annual carbon balances across the Amazon basin, based on carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide measurements for the anomalously dry and wet years 2010 and 2011, respectively. We find that the Amazon basin lost 0.48+/-0.18 petagrams of carbon per year (PgCyr-1) during the dry year but was carbon neutral (0.06+/-0.1PgCyr-1) during the wet year. Taking into account carbon losses from fire by using carbon monoxide measurements, we derived the basin net biome exchange (that is, the carbon flux between the non-burned forest and the atmosphere) revealing that during the dry year, vegetation was carbon neutral. During the wet year, vegetation was a net carbon sink of 0.25+/-0.14PgCyr-1, which is roughly consistent with the mean long-term intact-forest biomass sink of 0.39+/-0.10PgCyr-1 previously estimated from forest censuses. Observations from Amazonian forest plots suggest the suppression of photosynthesis during drought as the primary cause for the 2010 sink neutralization. Overall, our results suggest that moisture has an important role in determining the Amazonian carbon balance. If the recent trend of increasing precipitation extremes persists, the Amazon may become an increasing carbon source as a result of both emissions from fires and the suppression of net biome exchange by drought.
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Thomas, Dean T.; Sanderman, Jonathan; Eady, Sandra J.; Masters, David G.; Sanford, Paul
2012-01-01
Simple Summary Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ruminant livestock production (sheep, cattle and goats) have contributed to a common perception that a shift in the human diet from animal to plant-based products is environmentally responsible. In this study we found that the level of net emissions from livestock production systems is strongly influenced by the type of farming system that is used, and in fact GHG emission levels from some livestock production systems may be comparable with cropping systems. By introducing into farming systems ‘perennial’ pasture plants that are able to capture more atmospheric carbon, which is then stored in the soil, emission levels from livestock production can be substantially reduced. Abstract On-farm activities that reduce GHG emissions or sequester carbon from the atmosphere to compensate for anthropogenic emissions are currently being evaluated by the Australian Government as carbon offset opportunities. The aim of this study was to examine the implications of establishing and grazing Kikuyu pastures, integrated as part of a mixed Merino sheep and cropping system, as a carbon offset mechanism. For the assessment of changes in net greenhouse gas emissions, results from a combination of whole farm economic and livestock models were used (MIDAS and GrassGro). Net GHG emissions were determined by deducting increased emissions from introducing this practice change (increased methane and nitrous oxide emissions due to higher stocking rates) from the soil carbon sequestered from growing the Kikuyu pasture. Our results indicate that livestock systems using perennial pastures may have substantially lower net GHG emissions, and reduced GHG intensity of production, compared with annual plant-based production systems. Soil carbon accumulation by converting 45% of arable land within a farm enterprise to Kikuyu-based pasture was determined to be 0.80 t CO2-e farm ha−1 yr−1 and increased GHG emissions (leakage) was 0.19 t CO2-e farm ha−1 yr−1. The net benefit of this practice change was 0.61 t CO2-e farm ha−1 yr−1 while the rate of soil carbon accumulation remains constant. The use of perennial pastures improved the efficiency of animal production almost eight fold when expressed as carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per unit of animal product. The strategy of using perennial pasture to improve production levels and store additional carbon in the soil demonstrates how livestock should be considered in farming systems as both sources and sinks for GHG abatement. PMID:26487024
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Quantitative petri net model of gene regulated metabolic networks in the cell.
Chen, Ming; Hofestädt, Ralf
2011-01-01
A method to exploit hybrid Petri nets (HPN) for quantitatively modeling and simulating gene regulated metabolic networks is demonstrated. A global kinetic modeling strategy and Petri net modeling algorithm are applied to perform the bioprocess functioning and model analysis. With the model, the interrelations between pathway analysis and metabolic control mechanism are outlined. Diagrammatical results of the dynamics of metabolites are simulated and observed by implementing a HPN tool, Visual Object Net ++. An explanation of the observed behavior of the urea cycle is proposed to indicate possibilities for metabolic engineering and medical care. Finally, the perspective of Petri nets on modeling and simulation of metabolic networks is discussed.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Propastin, Pavel A.; Kappas, Martin W.; Herrmann, Stefanie M.; Tucker, Compton J.
2012-01-01
A modified light use efficiency (LUE) model was tested in the grasslands of central Kazakhstan in terms of its ability to characterize spatial patterns and interannual dynamics of net primary production (NPP) at a regional scale. In this model, the LUE of the grassland biome (en) was simulated from ground-based NPP measurements, absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) and meteorological observations using a new empirical approach. Using coarse-resolution satellite data from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), monthly NPP was calculated from 1998 to 2008 over a large grassland region in Kazakhstan. The modelling results were verified against scaled up plot-level observations of grassland biomass and another available NPP data set derived from a field study in a similar grassland biome. The results indicated the reliability of productivity estimates produced by the model for regional monitoring of grassland NPP. The method for simulation of en suggested in this study can be used in grassland regions where no carbon flux measurements are accessible.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dong, Z.; Driscoll, C. T.; Hayhoe, K.; Pourmokhtarian, A.; Stoner, A. M. K.
2016-12-01
Biogeochemical cycling of water, carbon, and nitrogen in alpine tundra ecosystems are closely related to the water and nutrient supply and ecosystem function of watersheds. While studies on the response of alpine tundra to climate change have largely focused on ecosystem structure, research on response of ecosystem function and element cycling are less well established. Using downscaled future climate scenarios under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and revised algorithm of the ecosystem model, PnET-BGC, we investigated water, carbon, and nitrogen cycling of an alpine tundra ecosystem under different projections of future climate change at Saddle site of Niwot Ridge, Colorado. Simulations from this study suggest that future water supply from the alpine tundra was well predicted by the Budyko curve, which contrasts with findings from several previous studies. Although foliar display is projected to decrease due to summer water stress, an extend growing season and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations reverse its effects on carbon fixation by allowing longer period of photosynthesis and greater photosynthetic rate per leaf area. As a result of the increasing carbon sequestration, large increases in carbon storage are projected in living and dead biomass. Decomposition of soil organic carbon and mineralization of soil organic nitrogen increase with temperature and soil moisture, but also related to the period of snow cover which likely enhances microbial activity and associated soil decomposition and N immobilization. Future increase in winter precipitation leads to increasing snow water content which increases spring soil moisture and decomposition. Shorter future snow cover period and decreased summer soil moisture caused lower decomposition in both seasons, therefore negligible long-term pattern is projected. Future net N mineralization generally followed the pattern of organic carbon decomposition, but slightly increased because of decreasing winter immobilization due to projected shorter snow cover period. Nitrogen uptake is projected to be higher under radiative forcing scenarios of higher primary production and greater net N mineralization.
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Sensitivity of regional forest carbon budgets to continuous and stochastic climate change pressures
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Scheller, R. M.
2010-12-01
Climate change is expected to impact forest-atmosphere carbon budgets through three processes: 1. Increased disturbance rates, including fires, mortality due to pest outbreaks, and severe storms 2. Changes in patterns of inter-annual variability, related to increased incidence of severe droughts and defoliating insect outbreaks 3. Continuous changes in forest productivity and respiration, related to increases in mean temperature, growing season length, and CO2 fertilization While the importance of these climate change effects in future regional carbon budgets has been established, quantitative characterization of the relative sensitivity of forested landscapes to these different types of pressures is needed. We present a model- and- data-based approach to understanding the sensitivity of forested landscapes to climate change pressures. Eddy-covariance and biometric measurements from forests in the northern United States were used to constrain two forest landscape models. The first, LandNEP, uses a prescribed functional form for the evolution of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) over the age of a forested grid cell, which is reset following a disturbance event. This model was used for investigating the basic statistical properties of a simple landscape’s responses to climate change pressures. The second model, LANDIS-II, includes different tree species and models forest biomass accumulation and succession, allowing us to investigate the effects of more complex forest processes such as species change and carbon pool accumulation on landscape responses to climate change effects. We tested the sensitivity of forested landscapes to these three types of climate change pressures by applying ensemble perturbations of random disturbance rates, distribution functions of inter-annual variability, and maximum potential carbon uptake rates, in the two models. We find that landscape-scale net carbon exchange responds linearly to continuous changes in potential carbon uptake and inter-annual variability, while responses to stochastic changes are non-linear and become more important at shorter mean disturbance intervals. These results provide insight on how to better parameterize coupled carbon-climate models to more realistically simulate feedbacks between forests and the atmosphere.
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Gullström, Martin; Lyimo, Liberatus D.; Dahl, Martin; Hamisi, Mariam I.; Mtolera, Matern S. P.; Björk, Mats
2017-01-01
Coastal vegetative habitats are known to be highly productive environments with a high ability to capture and store carbon. During disturbance this important function could be compromised as plant photosynthetic capacity, biomass, and/or growth are reduced. To evaluate effects of disturbance on CO2 capture in plants we performed a five-month manipulative experiment in a tropical seagrass (Thalassia hemprichii) meadow exposed to two intensity levels of shading and simulated grazing. We assessed CO2 capture potential (as net CO2 fixation) using areal productivity calculated from continuous measurements of diel photosynthetic rates, and estimates of plant morphology, biomass and productivity/respiration (P/R) ratios (from the literature). To better understand the plant capacity to coping with level of disturbance we also measured plant growth and resource allocation. We observed substantial reductions in seagrass areal productivity, biomass, and leaf area that together resulted in a negative daily carbon balance in the two shading treatments as well as in the high-intensity simulated grazing treatment. Additionally, based on the concentrations of soluble carbohydrates and starch in the rhizomes, we found that the main reserve sources for plant growth were reduced in all treatments except for the low-intensity simulated grazing treatment. If permanent, these combined adverse effects will reduce the plants’ resilience and capacity to recover after disturbance. This might in turn have long-lasting and devastating effects on important ecosystem functions, including the carbon sequestration capacity of the seagrass system. PMID:28704565
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Deyanova, Diana; Gullström, Martin; Lyimo, Liberatus D; Dahl, Martin; Hamisi, Mariam I; Mtolera, Matern S P; Björk, Mats
2017-01-01
Coastal vegetative habitats are known to be highly productive environments with a high ability to capture and store carbon. During disturbance this important function could be compromised as plant photosynthetic capacity, biomass, and/or growth are reduced. To evaluate effects of disturbance on CO2 capture in plants we performed a five-month manipulative experiment in a tropical seagrass (Thalassia hemprichii) meadow exposed to two intensity levels of shading and simulated grazing. We assessed CO2 capture potential (as net CO2 fixation) using areal productivity calculated from continuous measurements of diel photosynthetic rates, and estimates of plant morphology, biomass and productivity/respiration (P/R) ratios (from the literature). To better understand the plant capacity to coping with level of disturbance we also measured plant growth and resource allocation. We observed substantial reductions in seagrass areal productivity, biomass, and leaf area that together resulted in a negative daily carbon balance in the two shading treatments as well as in the high-intensity simulated grazing treatment. Additionally, based on the concentrations of soluble carbohydrates and starch in the rhizomes, we found that the main reserve sources for plant growth were reduced in all treatments except for the low-intensity simulated grazing treatment. If permanent, these combined adverse effects will reduce the plants' resilience and capacity to recover after disturbance. This might in turn have long-lasting and devastating effects on important ecosystem functions, including the carbon sequestration capacity of the seagrass system.
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Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production - Can Earth Keep Up?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Imhoff, Marc L.
2006-01-01
The amount of Earth's vegetation or net primary production required to support human activities is powerful measure of aggregate human impacts on the biosphere. Biophysical models applied to consumption statistics were used to estimate the annual amount of net primary production in the form of elemental carbon required for food, fibre, and fuel-wood by the global population. The calculations were then compared to satellite-based estimates of Earth's average net primary production to produce a geographically explicit balance sheet of net primary production "supply" and "demand". Humans consume 20% of Earth's net primary production (11.5 petagrams carbon) annually and this percentage varies regionally from 6% (South America) to over 70% (Europe and Asia), and locally from near 0% (central Australia) to over 30,000% (New York City, USA). The uneven footprint of human consumption and related environmental impacts, indicate the degree to which human populations are vulnerable to climate change and suggest policy options for slowing future growth of NPP demand.
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Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Yin, Runsheng; Li, Zhengpeng; Deng, Yulin; Tan, Kun; Deng, Xiangzheng; Rothstein, David; Qi, Jiaguo
2010-01-01
Quantifying the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems and carbon fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is critical to our understanding of regional patterns of carbon budgets. Here we use the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System to simulate the terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Jinsha watershed of China’s upper Yangtze basin from 1975 to 2000, based on unique combinations of spatial and temporal dynamics of major driving forces, such as climate, soil properties, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover changes. Our analysis demonstrates that the Jinsha watershed ecosystems acted as a carbon sink during the period of 1975–2000, with an average rate of 0.36 Mg/ha/yr, primarily resulting from regional climate variation and local land use and land cover change. Vegetation biomass accumulation accounted for 90.6% of the sink, while soil organic carbon loss before 1992 led to a lower net gain of carbon in the watershed, and after that soils became a small sink. Ecosystem carbon sink/source patterns showed a high degree of spatial heterogeneity. Carbon sinks were associated with forest areas without disturbances, whereas carbon sources were primarily caused by stand-replacing disturbances. It is critical to adequately represent the detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use activities in regional biogeochemical models to determine the spatial and temporal evolution of regional carbon sink/source patterns.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Combe, Marie; Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Jordi; de Wit, Allard; Peters, Wouter
2016-04-01
Carbon exchange over croplands plays an important role in the European carbon cycle over daily-to-seasonal time scales. Not only do crops occupy one fourth of the European land area, but their photosynthesis and respiration are large and affect CO2 mole fractions at nearly every atmospheric CO2 monitoring site. A better description of this crop carbon exchange in our CarbonTracker Europe data assimilation system - which currently treats crops as unmanaged grasslands - could strongly improve its ability to constrain terrestrial carbon fluxes. Available long-term observations of crop yield, harvest, and cultivated area allow such improvements, when combined with the new crop-modeling framework we present. This framework can model the carbon fluxes of 10 major European crops at high spatial and temporal resolution, on a 12x12 km grid and 3-hourly time-step. The development of this framework is threefold: firstly, we optimize crop growth using the process-based WOrld FOod STudies (WOFOST) agricultural crop growth model. Simulated yields are downscaled to match regional crop yield observations from the Statistical Office of the European Union (EUROSTAT) by estimating a yearly regional parameter for each crop species: the yield gap factor. This step allows us to better represent crop phenology, to reproduce the observed multiannual European crop yields, and to construct realistic time series of the crop carbon fluxes (gross primary production, GPP, and autotrophic respiration, Raut) on a fine spatial and temporal resolution. Secondly, we combine these GPP and Raut fluxes with a simple soil respiration model to obtain the total ecosystem respiration (TER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). And thirdly, we represent the horizontal transport of carbon that follows crop harvest and its back-respiration into the atmosphere during harvest consumption. We distribute this carbon using observations of the density of human and ruminant populations from EUROSTAT. We assess the model's ability to represent the seasonal GPP, TER and NEE fluxes using observations at 6 European FluxNet winter wheat and grain maize sites and compare it with the fluxes of the current terrestrial carbon cycle model of CarbonTracker Europe: the Simple Biosphere - Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (SiBCASA) model. We find that the new model framework provides a detailed, realistic, and strongly observation-driven estimate of carbon exchange over European croplands. Its products will be made available to the scientific community through the ICOS Carbon Portal, and serve as a new cropland component in CarbonTracker Europe flux estimates.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wang, Jian -Tao; Chen, Changfeng; Li, Han -Dong
Here, we here identify by ab initio calculations a new type of three-dimensional (3D) carbon allotropes that consist of phenyl rings connected by linear acetylenic chains in sp+ sp 2 bonding networks. These structures are constructed by inserting acetylenic or diacetylenic bonds into an all sp 2-hybridized rhombohedral polybenzene lattice, and the resulting 3D phenylacetylene and phenyldiacetylene nets comprise a 12-atom and 18-atom rhombohedral primitive unit cells R - 3m symmetry, which are characterized as the 3D chiral crystalline modification of 2D graphyne and graphdiyne, respectively. Simulated phonon spectra reveal that these structures are dynamically stable. Electronic band calculations indicatemore » that phenylacetylene is metallic, while phenyldiacetylene is a semiconductor with an indirect band gap of 0.58 eV. The present results establish a new type of carbon phases and offer insights into their outstanding structural and electronic properties.« less
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Wang, Jian -Tao; Chen, Changfeng; Li, Han -Dong; ...
2016-04-18
Here, we here identify by ab initio calculations a new type of three-dimensional (3D) carbon allotropes that consist of phenyl rings connected by linear acetylenic chains in sp+ sp 2 bonding networks. These structures are constructed by inserting acetylenic or diacetylenic bonds into an all sp 2-hybridized rhombohedral polybenzene lattice, and the resulting 3D phenylacetylene and phenyldiacetylene nets comprise a 12-atom and 18-atom rhombohedral primitive unit cells R - 3m symmetry, which are characterized as the 3D chiral crystalline modification of 2D graphyne and graphdiyne, respectively. Simulated phonon spectra reveal that these structures are dynamically stable. Electronic band calculations indicatemore » that phenylacetylene is metallic, while phenyldiacetylene is a semiconductor with an indirect band gap of 0.58 eV. The present results establish a new type of carbon phases and offer insights into their outstanding structural and electronic properties.« less
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SimulaTE: simulating complex landscapes of transposable elements of populations.
Kofler, Robert
2018-04-15
Estimating the abundance of transposable elements (TEs) in populations (or tissues) promises to answer many open research questions. However, progress is hampered by the lack of concordance between different approaches for TE identification and thus potentially unreliable results. To address this problem, we developed SimulaTE a tool that generates TE landscapes for populations using a newly developed domain specific language (DSL). The simple syntax of our DSL allows for easily building even complex TE landscapes that have, for example, nested, truncated and highly diverged TE insertions. Reads may be simulated for the populations using different sequencing technologies (PacBio, Illumina paired-ends) and strategies (sequencing individuals and pooled populations). The comparison between the expected (i.e. simulated) and the observed results will guide researchers in finding the most suitable approach for a particular research question. SimulaTE is implemented in Python and available at https://sourceforge.net/projects/simulates/. Manual https://sourceforge.net/p/simulates/wiki/Home/#manual; Test data and tutorials https://sourceforge.net/p/simulates/wiki/Home/#walkthrough; Validation https://sourceforge.net/p/simulates/wiki/Home/#validation. robert.kofler@vetmeduni.ac.at.
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Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mystakidis, Stefanos; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Gruber, Nicolas; Davin, Edouard L.
2017-01-01
The feedbacks between climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration and the terrestrial carbon cycle are a major source of uncertainty in future climate projections with Earth systems models. Here, we use observation-based estimates of the interannual variations in evapotranspiration (ET), net biome productivity (NBP), as well as the present-day sensitivity of NBP to climate variations, to constrain globally the terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks as simulated by models that participated in the fifth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5). The constraints result in a ca. 40% lower response of NBP to climate change and a ca. 30% reduction in the strength of the CO2 fertilization effect relative to the unconstrained multi-model mean. While the unconstrained CMIP5 models suggest an increase in the cumulative terrestrial carbon storage (477 PgC) in response to an idealized scenario of 1%/year atmospheric CO2 increase, the constraints imply a ca. 19% smaller change. Overall, the applied emerging constraint approach offers a possibility to reduce uncertainties in the projections of the terrestrial carbon cycle, which is a key determinant of the future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration and resulting climate change.
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ERO modelling of tungsten erosion and re-deposition in EAST L mode discharges
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xie, H.; Ding, R.; Kirschner, A.; Chen, J. L.; Ding, F.; Mao, H. M.; Feng, W.; Borodin, D.; Wang, L.
2017-09-01
Tungsten erosion and re-deposition at the upper outer divertor of the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak has been modelled using the 3D Monte Carlo code ERO. The measured divertor plasma condition in attached L mode discharges with upper single null configuration has been used to build the background plasma in the simulations. The tungsten gross erosion rate is mainly determined by carbon impurity in the background plasma. Increasing carbon concentration can first increase and afterwards suppress the tungsten erosion rate. Taking into account the material mixing surface model, the influence of eroded particles returning to the surface on sputtering has been studied. Sputtering by eroded particles returning to the surface can significantly enhance the gross erosion by reduction of the carbon ratio within the surface interaction layer and by increasing the erosion rate due to sputtering by both eroded tungsten and carbon particles. Modelling indicates that carbon deposition occurs on the dome plate and part of the vertical plate close to the dome plate, whereas tungsten net erosion occurs on most of the vertical plate. The modelling results are in reasonable agreement with the experimental WI spectroscopy.
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Climate Change Mitigation Challenge for Wood Utilization-The Case of Finland.
Soimakallio, Sampo; Saikku, Laura; Valsta, Lauri; Pingoud, Kim
2016-05-17
The urgent need to mitigate climate change invokes both opportunities and challenges for forest biomass utilization. Fossil fuels can be substituted by using wood products in place of alternative materials and energy, but wood harvesting reduces forest carbon sink and processing of wood products requires material and energy inputs. We assessed the extended life cycle carbon emissions considering substitution impacts for various wood utilization scenarios over 100 years from 2010 onward for Finland. The scenarios were based on various but constant wood utilization structures reflecting current and anticipated mix of wood utilization activities. We applied stochastic simulation to deal with the uncertainty in a number of input variables required. According to our analysis, the wood utilization decrease net carbon emissions with a probability lower than 40% for each of the studied scenarios. Furthermore, large emission reductions were exceptionally unlikely. The uncertainty of the results were influenced clearly the most by the reduction in the forest carbon sink. There is a significant trade-off between avoiding emissions through fossil fuel substitution and reduction in forest carbon sink due to wood harvesting. This creates a major challenge for forest management practices and wood utilization activities in responding to ambitious climate change mitigation targets.
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Sources and Fate of Reactive Carbon over North America
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, X.; Millet, D. B.; Singh, H. B.; Wisthaler, A.
2016-12-01
We apply a high-resolution chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem CTM at 0.25°×0.3125°) to generate, a comprehensive gas-phase reactive carbon budget over North America. Based on state-of-science source inventories and known chemistry, we find in the model that biogenic sources dominate the overall reactive carbon budget, with 49, 15, 4, and 39 TgC, respectively, introduced to the North American atmosphere from the biosphere, anthropogenic sources, fires, and from methane oxidation in 2013. Biogenic and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds contribute 60% and 10%, respectively, to the total OH reactivity over the Southeast US, along with other contributions from methane and inorganics. Oxidation to CO and CO2 then represents the overwhelming fate of that reactive carbon, with 65, 15, 7 and 5 TgC, respectively, oxidized to produce CO/CO2, dry deposited, wet deposited and transported (net) out of North America. We confront this simulation with an ensemble of recent airborne measurements over North America (SEAC4RS, SENEX, DISCOVER-AQ, DC3) and interpret the model-measurement comparisons in terms of their implications for current understanding of atmospheric reactive carbon and the processes driving its distribution.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lyu, Z.; Helene, G.; He, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; McGuire, A. D.; Bennett, A.; Breen, A. L.; Clein, J.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Johnson, K. D.; Kurkowski, T. A.; Pastick, N. J.; Rupp, S. T.; Wylie, B. K.; Zhu, Z.
2017-12-01
Wetlands are important terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska. It is important to understand and assess their role in the regional carbon dynamics in response to historical and projected environmental conditions. A coupled modeling framework that incorporates a fire disturbance model and two biogeochemical models was used to assess the relative influence of changing climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and fire regime on the historical and future carbon balance in wetland ecosystems of the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. Simulations were conducted for the historical period (1950-2009) and future projection period (2010-2099). These simulations estimate that the total carbon (C) storage in wetland ecosystems of Alaska is 5556 Tg C in 2009, with 89% of the C stored in soils. An estimated 175 Tg C was lost during the historical period, which is attributed to greater C lost from the Northwest Boreal LCC than C gained from the other three LCCs. The simulations for the projection period were conducted for six different scenarios driven by climate forcings from two different climate models for each of three CO2 emission scenarios. The mean total carbon storage increased 3.94 Tg C/yr by 2099, with variability among the simulations ranging from 2.02 Tg C/yr to 4.42 Tg C/yr. Across the four LCCs, the largest relative C storage increase occurred in the Arctic and North Pacific LCCs. These increases were primarily driven by increases in net primary production (NPP) that were greater than increases in heterotrophic respiration and fire emissions. Our analysis further indicates that NPP increase was primarily driven by CO2 fertilization ( 5% per 100 ppmv increase) as well as by increases in air temperature ( 1% per ° increase). Increases air temperature were estimated to be the primary cause for a projected 47.7% mean increase in wetlands biogenic CH4 emissions among the simulations ( 15% per ° increase). The combined effects of ecosystem CO2 sequestration and increased CH4 emissions result in a weaker global warming potential (GWP) for wetlands ecosystems in Alaska. Overall, this study estimates that wetland ecosystems of Alaska will transition into a C sink with less contribution to the global warming enhancement.
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Evaluation of Contrail Reduction Strategies Based on Environmental and Operational Costs
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chen, Neil Y.; Sridhar, Banavar; Ng, Hok K.; Li, Jinhua
2013-01-01
This paper evaluates a set of contrail reduction strategies based on environmental and operational costs. A linear climate model was first used to convert climate effects of carbon dioxide emissions and aircraft contrails to changes in Absolute Global Temperature Potential, a metric that measures the mean surface temperature change due to aircraft emissions and persistent contrail formations. The concept of social cost of carbon and the carbon auction price from recent California's cap-and-trade system were then used to relate the carbon dioxide emissions and contrail formations to an environmental cost index. The strategy for contrail reduction is based on minimizing contrail formations by altering the aircraft's cruising altitude. The strategy uses a user-defined factor to trade off between contrail reduction and additional fuel burn and carbon dioxide emissions. A higher value of tradeoff factor results in more contrail reduction but also more fuel burn and carbon emissions. The strategy is considered favorable when the net environmental cost benefit exceeds the operational cost. The results show how the net environmental benefit varies with different decision-making time-horizon and different carbon cost. The cost models provide a guidance to select the trade-off factor that will result in the most net environmental benefit.
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Net uptake of atmospheric CO2 by coastal submerged aquatic vegetation
Tokoro, Tatsuki; Hosokawa, Shinya; Miyoshi, Eiichi; Tada, Kazufumi; Watanabe, Kenta; Montani, Shigeru; Kayanne, Hajime; Kuwae, Tomohiro
2014-01-01
‘Blue Carbon’, which is carbon captured by marine living organisms, has recently been highlighted as a new option for climate change mitigation initiatives. In particular, coastal ecosystems have been recognized as significant carbon stocks because of their high burial rates and long-term sequestration of carbon. However, the direct contribution of Blue Carbon to the uptake of atmospheric CO2 through air-sea gas exchange remains unclear. We performed in situ measurements of carbon flows, including air-sea CO2 fluxes, dissolved inorganic carbon changes, net ecosystem production, and carbon burial rates in the boreal (Furen), temperate (Kurihama), and subtropical (Fukido) seagrass meadows of Japan from 2010 to 2013. In particular, the air-sea CO2 flux was measured using three methods: the bulk formula method, the floating chamber method, and the eddy covariance method. Our empirical results show that submerged autotrophic vegetation in shallow coastal waters can be functionally a sink for atmospheric CO2. This finding is contrary to the conventional perception that most near-shore ecosystems are sources of atmospheric CO2. The key factor determining whether or not coastal ecosystems directly decrease the concentration of atmospheric CO2 may be net ecosystem production. This study thus identifies a new ecosystem function of coastal vegetated systems; they are direct sinks of atmospheric CO2. PMID:24623530
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Impacts of Land Use Change on Net Ecosystem Production in China's Taihu Lake Basin in 1985-2010
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, X.; Yang, G.
2017-12-01
Land use change play a major role in determining sources and sinks of carbon at regional and global scales. This study employs a modified BIOME-BGC model to examine the changes in the spatio-temporal pattern of net ecosystem production (NEP) in China's Taihu Lake Basin in 1985-2010 and the extent to which land use change impacted NEP. The BIOME-BGC model was calibrated with observed NEP at three open-path eddy covariance flux sites for three dominant land-use types in the Basin including cropland, evergreen needleleaf forest, and mixed forest. Land use data were interpreted from Landsat TM images in 1985, 2000, 2005 and 2010 at the scale of 1:100,000 based on a decision tree method. Two simulations are conducted to distinguish the net effects of land use change and increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and nitrogen deposition on NEP. S1 deals with the actual outcomes of NEP under the interactions between land use change and increasing atmospheric concentration of CO2 and N deposition. S2 assumes that atmospheric CO2 concentration and N deposition remain unchanged at their 1985 levels: 338.32 ppm and 0.0005 kg m-2, respectively. The study estimates that NEP in the Basin showed an overall downward trend, decreasing by 9.8% (1.57 TgC) and 3.21 TgC (or 20.9%) from 1985 to 2010 under situation S1 and S2, respectively. The NEP distribution exhibits an apparent spatial heterogeneity at the municipal level. Land use changesin 1985-2010 reduced the regional NEP (3.21 Tg C in year 2010) by 19.9% compared to its 1985 level, while the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and nitrogen deposition compensated for a half of the total carbon loss. Critical measures for regulating rapid urban expansion and population growth and reinforcing environment protection programs are recommended to increase the regional carbon sink.
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Model of a coral reef ecosystem
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Atkinson, Marlin J.; Grigg, Richard W.
1984-08-01
The ECOPATH model for French Frigate Shoals estimates the benthic plant production (net primary production in kg wet weight) required to support the atoll food chain. In this section we estimate the benthic net primary production and net community production of the atoll based on metabolism studies of reef flat, knolls, and lagoon communities at French Frigate Shoals Hawaii. Community metabolism was measured during winter and summer. The reef communities at French Frigate Shoals exhibited patterns and rates of organic carbon production and calcification similar to other reefs in the world. The estimate of net primary production is 6.1·106 kg wet weight km-2 year-1±50%, a value remarkably close to the estimate by the ECOPATH model of 4.3·106 kg wet weight km-2 year-1. Our estimate of net community production or the amount of carbon not consumed by the benthos was high; approximately 15% of the net primary production. Model results indicate that about 5% of net primary production is passed up the food chain to mobile predators. This suggests about 10% of net primary production (˜6% of gross primary production) may be permanently lost to the system via sediment burial or export offshore.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fennel, K.; Rutherford, K. E.; Kuhn, A. M.; Zhang, W.; Brennan, C. E.; Zhang, R.
2016-12-01
Representing coastal oceans in global biogeochemical models is a challenge, yet the ecosystems in these regions are most vulnerable to the combined stressors of ocean warming, deoxygenation, acidification, eutrophication and fishing. Coastal regions also have large air-sea fluxes of CO2, making them an important but poorly quantified component of the global carbon cycle, and are the most relevant for human activities. Regional model applications that are nested within large-scale or global models are necessary for detailed studies of coastal regions. We present results from such a regional biogeochemical model for the northwestern North Atlantic shelves and adjacent deep ocean of Atlantic Canada. The model is an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and includes an NPZD-type nitrogen cycle model with explicit representation of dissolved oxygen and inorganic carbon. The region is at the confluence of the Gulf Stream and Labrador Current making it highly dynamic, a challenge for analysis and prediction, and prone to large changes. Historically a rich fishing ground, coastal ecosystems in Atlantic Canada have undergone dramatic changes including the collapse of several economically important fish stocks and the listing of many species as threatened or endangered. Furthermore it is unclear whether the region is a net source or sink of atmospheric CO2 with estimates of the size and direction of the net air-sea CO2 flux remaining controversial. We will discuss simulated patterns of primary production, inorganic carbon fluxes and oxygen trends in the context of circulation features and shelf residence times for the present ocean state and present future projections.
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Evaluation and inversion of a net ecosystem carbon exchange model for grasslands and croplands
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Herbst, M.; Klosterhalfen, A.; Weihermueller, L.; Graf, A.; Schmidt, M.; Huisman, J. A.; Vereecken, H.
2017-12-01
A one-dimensional soil water, heat, and CO2 flux model (SOILCO2), a pool concept of soil carbon turnover (RothC), and a crop growth module (SUCROS) was coupled to predict the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon. This model, further referred to as AgroC, was extended with routines for managed grassland as well as for root exudation and root decay. In a first step, the coupled model was applied to two winter wheat sites and one upland grassland site in Germany. The model was calibrated based on soil water content, soil temperature, biometric, and soil respiration measurements for each site, and validated in terms of hourly NEE measured with the eddy covariance technique. The overall model performance of AgroC was acceptable with a model efficiency >0.78 for NEE. In a second step, AgroC was optimized with the eddy covariance NEE measurements to examine the effect of various objective functions, constraints, and data-transformations on estimated NEE, which showed a distinct sensitivity to the choice of objective function and the inclusion of soil respiration data in the optimization process. Both, day and nighttime fluxes, were found to be sensitive to the selected optimization strategy. Additional consideration of soil respiration measurements improved the simulation of small positive fluxes remarkably. Even though the model performance of the selected optimization strategies did not diverge substantially, the resulting annual NEE differed substantially. We conclude that data-transformation, definition of objective functions, and data sources have to be considered cautiously when using a terrestrial ecosystem model to determine carbon balances by means of eddy covariance measurements.
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Zhuang, Q.; McGuire, A.D.; Melillo, J.M.; Clein, Joy S.; Dargaville, R.J.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Dong, J.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Harden, J.; Hobbie, J.E.
2003-01-01
There is substantial evidence that soil thermal dynamics are changing in terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere and that these dynamics have implications for the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. To date, large-scale biogeochemical models have been slow to incorporate the effects of soil thermal dynamics on processes that affect carbon exchange with the atmosphere. In this study we incorporated a soil thermal module (STM), appropriate to both permafrost and non-permafrost soils, into a large-scale ecosystem model, version 5.0 of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). We then compared observed regional and seasonal patterns of atmospheric CO2 to simulations of carbon dynamics for terrestrial ecosystems north of 30°N between TEM 5.0 and an earlier version of TEM (version 4.2) that lacked a STM. The timing of the draw-down of atmospheric CO2 at the start of the growing season and the degree of draw-down during the growing season were substantially improved by the consideration of soil thermal dynamics. Both versions of TEM indicate that climate variability and change promoted the loss of carbon from temperate ecosystems during the first half of the 20th century, and promoted carbon storage during the second half of the century. The results of the simulations by TEM suggest that land-use change in temperate latitudes (30–60°N) plays a stronger role than climate change in driving trends for increased uptake of carbon in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems (30–90°N) during recent decades. In the 1980s the TEM 5.0 simulation estimated that extratropical terrestrial ecosystems stored 0.55 Pg C yr−1, with 0.24 Pg C yr−1 in North America and 0.31 Pg C yr−1 in northern Eurasia. From 1990 through 1995 the model simulated that these ecosystems stored 0.90 Pg C yr−1, with 0.27 Pg C yr−1 stored in North America and 0.63 Pg C yr−1 stored in northern Eurasia. Thus, in comparison to the 1980s, simulated net carbon storage in the 1990s was enhanced by an additional 0.35 Pg C yr−1 in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems, with most of the additional storage in northern Eurasia. The carbon storage simulated by TEM 5.0 in the 1980s and 1990s was lower than estimates based on other methodologies, including estimates by atmospheric inversion models and remote sensing and inventory analyses. This suggests that other issues besides the role of soil thermal dynamics may be responsible, in part, for the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage of extratropical terrestrial ecosystems. In conclusion, the consideration of soil thermal dynamics and terrestrial cryospheric processes in modeling the global carbon cycle has helped to reduce biases in the simulation of the seasonality of carbon dynamics of extratropical terrestrial ecosystems. This progress should lead to an enhanced ability to clarify the role of other issues that influence carbon dynamics in terrestrial regions that experience seasonal freezing and thawing of soil.
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Calibration of two complex ecosystem models with different likelihood functions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hidy, Dóra; Haszpra, László; Pintér, Krisztina; Nagy, Zoltán; Barcza, Zoltán
2014-05-01
The biosphere is a sensitive carbon reservoir. Terrestrial ecosystems were approximately carbon neutral during the past centuries, but they became net carbon sinks due to climate change induced environmental change and associated CO2 fertilization effect of the atmosphere. Model studies and measurements indicate that the biospheric carbon sink can saturate in the future due to ongoing climate change which can act as a positive feedback. Robustness of carbon cycle models is a key issue when trying to choose the appropriate model for decision support. The input parameters of the process-based models are decisive regarding the model output. At the same time there are several input parameters for which accurate values are hard to obtain directly from experiments or no local measurements are available. Due to the uncertainty associated with the unknown model parameters significant bias can be experienced if the model is used to simulate the carbon and nitrogen cycle components of different ecosystems. In order to improve model performance the unknown model parameters has to be estimated. We developed a multi-objective, two-step calibration method based on Bayesian approach in order to estimate the unknown parameters of PaSim and Biome-BGC models. Biome-BGC and PaSim are a widely used biogeochemical models that simulate the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere, and within the components of the terrestrial ecosystems (in this research the developed version of Biome-BGC is used which is referred as BBGC MuSo). Both models were calibrated regardless the simulated processes and type of model parameters. The calibration procedure is based on the comparison of measured data with simulated results via calculating a likelihood function (degree of goodness-of-fit between simulated and measured data). In our research different likelihood function formulations were used in order to examine the effect of the different model goodness metric on calibration. The different likelihoods are different functions of RMSE (root mean squared error) weighted by measurement uncertainty: exponential / linear / quadratic / linear normalized by correlation. As a first calibration step sensitivity analysis was performed in order to select the influential parameters which have strong effect on the output data. In the second calibration step only the sensitive parameters were calibrated (optimal values and confidence intervals were calculated). In case of PaSim more parameters were found responsible for the 95% of the output data variance than is case of BBGC MuSo. Analysis of the results of the optimized models revealed that the exponential likelihood estimation proved to be the most robust (best model simulation with optimized parameter, highest confidence interval increase). The cross-validation of the model simulations can help in constraining the highly uncertain greenhouse gas budget of grasslands.
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Amber C. Churchill; Merritt R. Turetsky; A. David McGuire; Teresa N. Hollingsworth
2015-01-01
Northern peatlands represent a long-term net sink for atmospheric CO2, but these ecosystems can shift from net carbon (C) sinks to sources based on changing climate and environmental conditions. In particular, changes in water availability associated with climate control peatland vegetation and carbon uptake processes. We examined the influence of changing hydrology on...
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The significance of carbon-enriched dust for global carbon accounting
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Soil carbon stores amount to 54% of the terrestrial carbon pool and twice the atmospheric carbon pool, but soil organic carbon (SOC) can be transient. There is an ongoing debate about whether soils are a net source or sink of carbon, and understanding the role of aeolian processes in SOC erosion, tr...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rani Nayak, Dali; Gottschalk, Pia; Evans, Chris; Smith, Pete; Smith, Jo
2010-05-01
Within Wales soils hold between 400-500 MtC, over half of this carbon is stored in organic and organo-mineral soil which cover less than 20% of the land area of Wales. It has been predicted that climate change will increasingly have an impact on the C stock of soils in Wales. Higher temperatures will increase the rate of decomposition of organic matter, leading to increased C losses. However increased net primary production (NPP), leading to increased inputs of organic matter, may offset this. Land use plays a major role in determining the level of soil C and the direction of change in status (soil as a source or sink). We present here an assessment of the effect of land use change and climate change on the upland soil carbon stock of Wales in 3 different catchments i.e. Migneint, Plynlimon and Pontbren using a process-based model of soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics, ECOSSE. The uncertainties introduced in the simulations by using only the data available at national scale are determined. The ECOSSE model (1,2) has been developed to simulate greenhouse gas emissions from both organic and mineral soils. ECOSSE was derived from RothC (3) and SUNDIAL (4,5) and predicts the impacts of changes in land use and climate on emissions and soil carbon stock. Simulated changes in soil C are dependent on the type of land use change, the soil type where the land use change is occurring, and the C content of soil under the initial and final land uses. At Migneint and Plynlimon, the major part of the losses occurs due to the conversion of semi-natural land to grassland. Reducing the land use change from semi-natural to grassland is the main measure needed to mitigate losses of soil C. At Pontbren, the model predicts a net gain in soil C with the predicted land use change, so there is no need to mitigate. Simulations of future changes in soil C to 2050 showed very small changes in soil C due to climate compared to changes due to land use change. At the selected catchments, changes in soil C due to the impacts of land use change were predicted to be up to 1000 times greater than the changes predicted due to climate change. This is encouraging, as it illustrates the great potential for C losses due to climate change to be mitigated by changing land use. 1. Smith P, et al 2007. SEERAD Report. ISBN 978 0 7559 1498 2. 166pp. 2. Smith JU, et al 2009. RERAD Report. In press. 3. Coleman K & Jenkinson DS 1996. In: Evaluation of Soil Organic Matter Models Using Existing, Long-Term Datasets, NATO ASI Series I, Vol.38 (eds Powlson DS, Smith P, Smith JU), pp. 237-246. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, Germany. 4. Bradbury NJ, et al 1993. Journal of Agricultural Science, Cambridge 121, 363-379. 5. Smith JU, et al 1996. Agronomy Journal 88, 38-42.
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Crop physiology calibration in the CLM
Bilionis, I.; Drewniak, B. A.; Constantinescu, E. M.
2015-04-15
Farming is using more of the land surface, as population increases and agriculture is increasingly applied for non-nutritional purposes such as biofuel production. This agricultural expansion exerts an increasing impact on the terrestrial carbon cycle. In order to understand the impact of such processes, the Community Land Model (CLM) has been augmented with a CLM-Crop extension that simulates the development of three crop types: maize, soybean, and spring wheat. The CLM-Crop model is a complex system that relies on a suite of parametric inputs that govern plant growth under a given atmospheric forcing and available resources. CLM-Crop development used measurementsmore » of gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from AmeriFlux sites to choose parameter values that optimize crop productivity in the model. In this paper, we calibrate these parameters for one crop type, soybean, in order to provide a faithful projection in terms of both plant development and net carbon exchange. Calibration is performed in a Bayesian framework by developing a scalable and adaptive scheme based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). The model showed significant improvement of crop productivity with the new calibrated parameters. We demonstrate that the calibrated parameters are applicable across alternative years and different sites.« less
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Crop physiology calibration in the CLM
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Bilionis, I.; Drewniak, B. A.; Constantinescu, E. M.
Farming is using more of the land surface, as population increases and agriculture is increasingly applied for non-nutritional purposes such as biofuel production. This agricultural expansion exerts an increasing impact on the terrestrial carbon cycle. In order to understand the impact of such processes, the Community Land Model (CLM) has been augmented with a CLM-Crop extension that simulates the development of three crop types: maize, soybean, and spring wheat. The CLM-Crop model is a complex system that relies on a suite of parametric inputs that govern plant growth under a given atmospheric forcing and available resources. CLM-Crop development used measurementsmore » of gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from AmeriFlux sites to choose parameter values that optimize crop productivity in the model. In this paper, we calibrate these parameters for one crop type, soybean, in order to provide a faithful projection in terms of both plant development and net carbon exchange. Calibration is performed in a Bayesian framework by developing a scalable and adaptive scheme based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). The model showed significant improvement of crop productivity with the new calibrated parameters. We demonstrate that the calibrated parameters are applicable across alternative years and different sites.« less
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2012-01-01
Background Forests of the Midwest U.S. provide numerous ecosystem services. Two of these, carbon sequestration and wood production, are often portrayed as conflicting. Currently, carbon management and biofuel policies are being developed to reduce atmospheric CO2 and national dependence on foreign oil, and increase carbon storage in ecosystems. However, the biological and industrial forest carbon cycles are rarely studied in a whole-system structure. The forest system carbon balance is the difference between the biological (net ecosystem production) and industrial (net emissions from forest industry) forest carbon cycles, but to date this critical whole system analysis is lacking. This study presents a model of the forest system, uses it to compute the carbon balance, and outlines a methodology to maximize future carbon uptake in a managed forest region. Results We used a coupled forest ecosystem process and forest products life cycle inventory model for a regional temperate forest in the Midwestern U.S., and found the net system carbon balance for this 615,000 ha forest was positive (2.29 t C ha-1 yr-1). The industrial carbon budget was typically less than 10% of the biological system annually, and averaged averaged 0.082 t C ha-1 yr-1. Net C uptake over the next 100-years increased by 22% or 0.33 t C ha-1 yr-1 relative to the current harvest rate in the study region under the optized harvest regime. Conclusions The forest’s biological ecosystem current and future carbon uptake capacity is largely determined by forest harvest practices that occurred over a century ago, but we show an optimized harvesting strategy would increase future carbon sequestration, or wood production, by 20-30%, reduce long transportation chain emissions, and maintain many desirable stand structural attributes that are correlated to biodiversity. Our results for this forest region suggest that increasing harvest over the next 100 years increases the strength of the carbon sink, and that carbon sequestration and wood production are not conflicting for this particular forest ecosystem. The optimal harvest strategy found here may not be the same for all forests, but the methodology is applicable anywhere sufficient forest inventory data exist. PMID:22713794
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Terrestrial N Cycling And C Storage: Some Insights From A Process-based Land Surface Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zaehle, S.; Friend, A. D.; Friedlingstein, P.
2008-12-01
We present results of a new land surface model, O-CN, which includes a process-based coupling between the terrestrial cycling of energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen. The model represents the controls of the terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling on carbon (C) pools and fluxes through photosynthesis, respiration, changes in allocation, and soil organic matter decomposition, and explicitly accounts for N leaching and gaseous losses. O-CN has been shown to give realistic results in comparison to observations at a wide range of scales, including in situ flux measurements, productivity databases, and atmospheric CO2 concentration data. O-CN is run for three free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) sites (Duke, Oak Ridge, Aspen), and reproduces observed magnitudes of changes in net primary productivity, foliage area and foliage N content. Several alternative hypotheses concerning the control of N on vegetation growth and decomposition, including effects of diluting foliage N concentrations, down-regulation of photosynthesis and respiration, acclimation of C allocation patterns and biological N fixation, are tested with respect to their effect on long- term C sequestration estimate. Differences in initial N availability, small transient changes in N inputs and the assumed plasticity of C:N stoichiometry can lead to substantial differences in the simulated long-term changes in productivity and C sequestration. We discuss the capacity of observations obtained at FACE sites to evaluate these alternative hypotheses, and investigate implications of a transient versus instantaneous increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide for the magnitude of the simulated limiting effect of N on C cycling. Finally, we re-examine earlier model-based assessments of the terrestrial C sequestration potential using a global transient O-CN simulation driven by increases in atmospheric CO2, N deposition and climatic changes over the 21st century.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Merchant, Bion J.
2015-08-01
NetMOD ( Net work M onitoring for O ptimal D etection) is a Java-based software package for conducting simulation of seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasonic networks. Network simulations have long been used to study network resilience to station outages and to determine where additional stations are needed to reduce monitoring thresholds. NetMOD makes use of geophysical models to determine the source characteristics, signal attenuation along the path between the source and station, and the performance and noise properties of the station. These geophysical models are combined to simulate the relative amplitudes of signal and noise that are observed at each ofmore » the stations. From these signal-to-noise ratios (SNR), the probability of detection can be computed given a detection threshold. This document describes the parameters that are used to configure the NetMOD tool and the input and output parameters that make up the simulation definitions.« less