Laboratory Investigations of Physical State of CO2 Ice on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portyankina, G.; Merrison, J.; Iversen, J. J.; Yoldi, Z.; Hansen, C. J.; Aye, K.-M.; Pommeroll, A.

2016-09-01

We used Environmental Wind Tunnel to simulate CO2 ice condensation under the conditions of the martian polar areas. We find that under conditions usual for martian fall and winter, CO2 ice always deposits from atmosphere as a translucent slab.

Modeling of meteorology, tracer transport and chemistry for the Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Studies 2012 and 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadov, R.; McKeen, S. A.; Angevine, W. M.; Frost, G. J.; Roberts, J. M.; De Gouw, J. A.; Warneke, C.; Peischl, J.; Brown, S. S.; Edwards, P. M.; Wild, R. J.; Pichugina, Y. L.; Banta, R. M.; Brewer, A.; Senff, C. J.; Langford, A. O.; Petron, G.; Karion, A.; Sweeney, C.; Schnell, R. C.; Johnson, B.; Zamora, R. J.; Helmig, D.; Park, J.; Evans, J.; Stephens, C. R.; Olson, J. B.; Trainer, M.

2013-12-01

The Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Studies (UBWOS) field campaigns took place during winter of 2012 and 2013 in the Uintah Basin, Utah. The studies were aimed at characterizing meteorology, emissions of atmospheric constituents and air chemistry in a region abundant with oil and gas production, with associated emissions of various volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NOx. High ozone pollution events were observed throughout the Uintah Basin during the winter of 2013, but not during the winter of 2012. A clear understanding of the processes leading to high ozone events is still lacking. We present here high spatiotemporal resolution simulations of meteorology, tracer transport and gas chemistry over the basin during January-February, 2012 and 2013 using the WRF/Chem regional photochemical model. Correctly characterizing the meteorology poses unique challenges due to complex terrain, cold-pool conditions, and shallow inversion layers observed during the winter of 2013. We discuss the approach taken to adequately simulate the meteorology over the basin and present evaluations of the modeled meteorology using surface, lidar and tethersonde measurements. Initial simulations use a passive tracer within the model as a surrogate for CH4 released from oil and gas wells. These tracer transport simulations show that concentrations of inert, emitted species near the surface in 2013 were 4-8 times higher than 2012 due to much shallower boundary layers and reduced winds in 2013. This is supported by in-situ measurements of CH4 made at the Horse Pool surface station during the field campaigns. Full photochemical simulations are forced by VOC and NOx emissions that are determined in a top-down approach, using observed emission ratios of VOC and NOx relative to CH4, along with available information of active wells, compressors, and processing plants. We focus on differences in meteorology, temperature, and radiation between the two winters in determining ozone concentrations in the basin. The model is then used diagnostically to assess first-order sensitivities of basin-wide ozone to NOx or VOC emissions, and how they depend on the environmental differences between the winters of 2012 and 2013.

Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Central-Southwest Asian Winter Precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Goddard, Lisa; Barnston, Anthony G.

2005-06-01

Interannual precipitation variability in central-southwest (CSW) Asia has been associated with East Asian jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection. However, atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) poorly simulate the region's interannual precipitation variability. The statistical-dynamical approach uses statistical methods to correct systematic deficiencies in the response of AGCMs to SST forcing. Statistical correction methods linking model-simulated Indo-west Pacific precipitation and observed CSW Asia precipitation result in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated simulation skill in the northeast part of the domain for the period from 1951 to 1998. The statistical-dynamical method is also applied to recent (winter 1998/99 to 2002/03) multimodel, two-tier December-March precipitation forecasts initiated in October. This period includes 4 yr (winter of 1998/99 to 2001/02) of severe drought. Tercile probability forecasts are produced using ensemble-mean forecasts and forecast error estimates. The statistical-dynamical forecasts show enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for the four drought years and capture the return to normal conditions in part of the region during the winter of 2002/03.May Kabul be without gold, but not without snow.—Traditional Afghan proverb

Performance of WRF in simulating terrain induced flows and atmospheric boundary layer characteristics over the tropical station Gadanki

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hari Prasad, K. B. R. R.; Srinivas, C. V.; Rao, T. Narayana; Naidu, C. V.; Baskaran, R.

2017-03-01

In this study the evolution of the topographic flows and boundary layer features over a tropical hilly station Gadanki in southern India were simulated using Advanced Research WRF (ARW) mesoscale model for fair weather days during southwest monsoon (20-22 July 2011) and winter (18-20 Jan. 2011). Turbulence measurements from an Ultra High Frequency (UHF) Wind Profiler, Ultra Sonic Anemometer, GPS Sonde and meteorological tower were used for comparison. Simulations revealed development of small-scale slope winds in the lower boundary layer (below 800 m) at Gadanki which are more prevalent during nighttime. Stronger slope winds during winter and weaker flows in the monsoon season are simulated indicating the sensitivity of slope winds to the background synoptic flows and radiative heating/cooling. Higher upward surface fluxes (sensible, latent heat) and development of very deep convective boundary layer ( 2500 m) is simulated during summer monsoon relative to the winter season in good agreement with observations. Four PBL parameterizations (YSU, MYJ, MYNN and ACM) were evaluated to simulate the above characteristics. Large differences were noticed in the simulated boundary layer features using different PBL schemes in both the seasons. It is found that the TKE-closures (MYJ, MYNN) produced extremities in daytime PBL depth, surface fluxes, temperature, humidity and winds. The differences in the simulations are attributed to the eddy diffusivities, buoyancy and entrainment fluxes which were simulated differently in the respective schemes. The K-based YSU followed by MYNN best produced the slope winds as well as daytime boundary layer characteristics realistically in both the summer and winter synoptic conditions at Gadanki hilly site though with slight overestimation of nocturnal PBL height.

HEPPA-II model-measurement intercomparison project: EPP indirect effects during the dynamically perturbed NH winter 2008-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funke, Bernd; Ball, William; Bender, Stefan; Gardini, Angela; Harvey, V. Lynn; Lambert, Alyn; López-Puertas, Manuel; Marsh, Daniel R.; Meraner, Katharina; Nieder, Holger; Päivärinta, Sanna-Mari; Pérot, Kristell; Randall, Cora E.; Reddmann, Thomas; Rozanov, Eugene; Schmidt, Hauke; Seppälä, Annika; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Stiller, Gabriele P.; Tsvetkova, Natalia D.; Verronen, Pekka T.; Versick, Stefan; von Clarmann, Thomas; Walker, Kaley A.; Yushkov, Vladimir

2017-03-01

We compare simulations from three high-top (with upper lid above 120 km) and five medium-top (with upper lid around 80 km) atmospheric models with observations of odd nitrogen (NOx = NO + NO2), temperature, and carbon monoxide from seven satellite instruments (ACE-FTS on SciSat, GOMOS, MIPAS, and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, MLS on Aura, SABER on TIMED, and SMR on Odin) during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter 2008/2009. The models included in the comparison are the 3-D chemistry transport model 3dCTM, the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the modelling tools for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and CAO-SOCOL), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The comparison focuses on the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect, that is, the polar winter descent of NOx largely produced by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A particular emphasis is given to the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009 and the subsequent elevated stratopause (ES) event associated with enhanced descent of mesospheric air. The chemistry climate model simulations have been nudged toward reanalysis data in the troposphere and stratosphere while being unconstrained above. An odd nitrogen upper boundary condition obtained from MIPAS observations has further been applied to medium-top models. Most models provide a good representation of the mesospheric tracer descent in general, and the EPP indirect effect in particular, during the unperturbed (pre-SSW) period of the NH winter 2008/2009. The observed NOx descent into the lower mesosphere and stratosphere is generally reproduced within 20 %. Larger discrepancies of a few model simulations could be traced back either to the impact of the models' gravity wave drag scheme on the polar wintertime meridional circulation or to a combination of prescribed NOx mixing ratio at the uppermost model layer and low vertical resolution. In March-April, after the ES event, however, modelled mesospheric and stratospheric NOx distributions deviate significantly from the observations. The too-fast and early downward propagation of the NOx tongue, encountered in most simulations, coincides with a temperature high bias in the lower mesosphere (0.2-0.05 hPa), likely caused by an overestimation of descent velocities. In contrast, upper-mesospheric temperatures (at 0.05-0.001 hPa) are generally underestimated by the high-top models after the onset of the ES event, being indicative for too-slow descent and hence too-low NOx fluxes. As a consequence, the magnitude of the simulated NOx tongue is generally underestimated by these models. Descending NOx amounts simulated with medium-top models are on average closer to the observations but show a large spread of up to several hundred percent. This is primarily attributed to the different vertical model domains in which the NOx upper boundary condition is applied. In general, the intercomparison demonstrates the ability of state-of-the-art atmospheric models to reproduce the EPP indirect effect in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The encountered differences between observed and simulated NOx, CO, and temperature distributions during the perturbed phase of the 2009 NH winter, however, emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events in order to allow for a better description of the EPP indirect effect under these particular conditions.

Impact of Desiccation of Aral Sea on the Regional Climate of Central Asia Using WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Ashish; Huang, Huei-Ping; Zavialov, Peter; Khan, Valentina

2018-01-01

This study explores the impacts of the desiccation of the Aral Sea and large-scale climate change on the regional climate of Central Asia in the post-1960 era. A series of climate downscaling experiments for the 1960's and 2000's decades were performed using the Weather Research and Forecast model at 12-km horizontal resolution. To quantify the impacts of the changing surface boundary condition, a set of simulations with an identical lateral boundary condition but different extents of the Aral Sea were performed. It was found that the desiccation of the Aral Sea leads to more snow (and less rain) as desiccated winter surface is relatively much colder than water surface. In summer, desiccation led to substantial warming over the Aral Sea. These impacts were largely confined to within the area covered by the former Aral Sea and its immediate vicinity, although desiccation of the Sea also led to minor cooling over the greater Central Asia in winter. A contrasting set of simulations with an identical surface boundary condition but different lateral boundary conditions produced more identifiable changes in regional climate over the greater Central Asia which was characterized by a warming trend in both winter and summer. Simulations also showed that while the desiccation of the Aral Sea has significant impacts on the local climate over the Sea, the climate over the greater Central Asia on inter-decadal time scale was more strongly influenced by the continental or global-scale climate change on that time scale.

Influence of sub-kilometer precipitation datasets on simulated snowpack and glacier winter balance in alpine terrain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vionnet, Vincent; Six, Delphine; Auger, Ludovic; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Quéno, Louis; Réveillet, Marion; Dombrowski-Etchevers, Ingrid; Thibert, Emmanuel; Dumont, Marie

2017-04-01

Capturing spatial and temporal variabilities of meteorological conditions at fine scale is necessary for modelling snowpack and glacier winter mass balance in alpine terrain. In particular, precipitation amount and phase are strongly influenced by the complex topography. In this study, we assess the impact of three sub-kilometer precipitation datasets (rainfall and snowfall) on distributed simulations of snowpack and glacier winter mass balance with the detailed snowpack model Crocus for winter 2011-2012. The different precipitation datasets at 500-m grid spacing over part of the French Alps (200*200 km2 area) are coming either from (i) the SAFRAN precipitation analysis specially developed for alpine terrain, or from (ii) operational outputs of the atmospheric model AROME at 2.5-km grid spacing downscaled to 500 m with fixed lapse rate or from (iii) a version of the atmospheric model AROME at 500-m grid spacing. Others atmospherics forcings (air temperature and humidity, incoming longwave and shortwave radiation, wind speed) are taken from the AROME simulations at 500-m grid spacing. These atmospheric forcings are firstly compared against a network of automatic weather stations. Results are analysed with respect to station location (valley, mid- and high-altitude). The spatial pattern of seasonal snowfall and its dependency with elevation is then analysed for the different precipitation datasets. Large differences between SAFRAN and the two versions of AROME are found at high-altitude. Finally, results of Crocus snowpack simulations are evaluated against (i) punctual in-situ measurements of snow depth and snow water equivalent, and (ii) maps of snow covered areas retrieved from optical satellite data (MODIS). Measurements of winter accumulation of six glaciers of the French Alps are also used and provide very valuable information on precipitation at high-altitude where the conventional observation network is scarce. This study illustrates the potential and limitations of high-resolution atmospheric models to drive simulations of snowpack and glacier winter mass balance in alpine terrain.

Impacts of Future Climate and Emission Changes on U.S. Air Quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Penrod, Ashley; Zhang, Yang; Wang, K.

2014-06-01

Changes in climate and emissions will affect future air quality. In this work, simulations of present (2001-2005) and future (2026-2030) regional air quality are conducted with the newly released CMAQ version 5.0 to examine the individual and combined impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the U.S. Current (2001-2005) meteorological and chemical predictions are evaluated against observational data to assess the model’s capability in reproducing the seasonal differences. Overall, WRF and CMAQ perform reasonably well. Increased temperatures (up to 3.18 °C) and decreased ventilation (up to 157 m in planetary boundary layer height) aremore » found in both future winter and summer, with more prominent changes in winter. Increases in future temperatures result in increased isoprene and terpene emissions in winter and summer, driving the increase in maximum 8-h average O3 (up to 5.0 ppb) over the eastern U.S. in winter while decreases in NOx emissions drive the decrease in O3 over most of the U.S. in summer. Future concentrations of PM2.5 in winter and summer and many of its components including organic matter in winter, ammonium and nitrate in summer, and sulfate in winter and summer, decrease due to decreases in primary anthropogenic emissions and the concentrations of secondary anthropogenic pollutants and increased precipitation in winter. Future winter and summer dry and wet deposition fluxes are spatially variable and increase with increasing surface resistance and precipitation (e.g., NH4+ and NO3- dry and wet deposition fluxes increase in winter over much of the U.S.), respectively, and decrease with a decrease in ambient particulate concentrations (e.g., SO42- dry and wet deposition fluxes decrease over the eastern U.S. in summer and winter). Sensitivity simulations show that anthropogenic emission projections dominate over changes in climate in their impacts on the U.S. air quality in the near future. Changes in some regions/species, however, are dominated by climate and/or both climate and anthropogenic emissions, especially in future years that are marked by meteorological conditions conducive to poor air quality.« less

Assessing winter cover crop nutrient uptake efficiency using a water quality simulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, I.-Y.; Lee, S.; Sadeghi, A. M.; Beeson, P. C.; Hively, W. D.; McCarty, G. W.; Lang, M. W.

2014-12-01

Winter cover crops are an effective conservation management practice with potential to improve water quality. Throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW), which is located in the mid-Atlantic US, winter cover crop use has been emphasized, and federal and state cost-share programs are available to farmers to subsidize the cost of cover crop establishment. The objective of this study was to assess the long-term effect of planting winter cover crops to improve water quality at the watershed scale (~ 50 km2) and to identify critical source areas of high nitrate export. A physically based watershed simulation model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was calibrated and validated using water quality monitoring data to simulate hydrological processes and agricultural nutrient cycling over the period of 1990-2000. To accurately simulate winter cover crop biomass in relation to growing conditions, a new approach was developed to further calibrate plant growth parameters that control the leaf area development curve using multitemporal satellite-based measurements of species-specific winter cover crop performance. Multiple SWAT scenarios were developed to obtain baseline information on nitrate loading without winter cover crops and to investigate how nitrate loading could change under different winter cover crop planting scenarios, including different species, planting dates, and implementation areas. The simulation results indicate that winter cover crops have a negligible impact on the water budget but significantly reduce nitrate leaching to groundwater and delivery to the waterways. Without winter cover crops, annual nitrate loading from agricultural lands was approximately 14 kg ha-1, but decreased to 4.6-10.1 kg ha-1 with cover crops resulting in a reduction rate of 27-67% at the watershed scale. Rye was the most effective species, with a potential to reduce nitrate leaching by up to 93% with early planting at the field scale. Early planting of cover crops (~ 30 days of additional growing days) was crucial, as it lowered nitrate export by an additional ~ 2 kg ha-1 when compared to late planting scenarios. The effectiveness of cover cropping increased with increasing extent of cover crop implementation. Agricultural fields with well-drained soils and those that were more frequently used to grow corn had a higher potential for nitrate leaching and export to the waterways. This study supports the effective implementation of cover crop programs, in part by helping to target critical pollution source areas for cover crop implementation.

Microphysical Modelling of the 1999-2000 Arctic Winter. 3; Impact of Homogeneous Freezing on PSCs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drdla, K.

2003-01-01

Simulations of the 1999-2000 winter have tested the effect on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) of the homogeneous freezing of liquid ternary solutions into nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and nitric acid dihydrate (NAD). Proposed laboratory-derived volume-based and surface-based homogeneous freezing rates have both been examined, including different assumptions about the extrapolation of laboratory measurements to atmospheric conditions. Widespread PSC formation and denitrification are possible in several of the scenarios examined. However, the simulations are all unable to explain the solid-phase PSCs observed early in the 1999-2000 winter, and are unable to reproduce the measured extent of vortex denitrification. These problems can both be attributed to the relatively cold temperatures, more than 5 K below the NAT condensation point, necessary for effective homogeneous freezing. Therefore synoptic-scale homogeneous freezing appears unlikely to be the primary mechanism responsible for solid-phase PSC formation.

Modelling the economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, Christoph; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Martius, Olivia; Brönnimann, Stefan

2014-05-01

Severe winter storms such as "Vivian" in February 1990 and "Lothar" in December 1999 are among the most destructive meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Disaster severity resulting from such windstorms is attributable, on the one hand, to hazardous weather conditions such as high wind gust speeds; and on the other hand to socio-economic factors such as population density, distribution of values at risk, and damage susceptibility. For present-day winter storms, the data basis is generally good to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated socio-economic impacts. In contrast, the information on historic windstorms is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. This study illustrates a promising technique to simulate the economic impacts of both historic and present winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our approach makes use of the novel Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) spanning 1871-present. The 2-degree spatial resolution of the global 20CR dataset is relatively coarse. Thus, the complex orography of Switzerland is not realistically represented, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of wind systems that are strongly influenced by the local orography, such as Föhn winds. Therefore, a dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was performed, for in total 40 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871. Based on the downscaled wind gust speeds and the climada loss model, the estimated economic losses were calculated at municipality level for current economic and social conditions. With this approach, we find an answer to the question what would be the economic losses of e.g. a hazardous Föhn storm - which occurred in northern Switzerland in February 1925 - today, i.e. under current socio-economic conditions. Encouragingly, the pattern of simulated losses for this specific storm is very similar to historic loss reports. A comparison of wind gust speeds with simulated storm losses for all highly damaging winter storms in Switzerland since the late 19th century considered in this study shows that storm losses have been related primarily to population density (and distribution of values at risk, respectively) rather than hazardous wind speed.

A heat and water transfer model for seasonally frozen soils with application to a precipitation-runoff model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emerson, Douglas G.

1994-01-01

A model that simulates heat and water transfer in soils during freezing and thawing periods was developed and incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The model's transfer of heat is based on an equation developed from Fourier's equation for heat flux. The model's transfer of water within the soil profile is based on the concept of capillary forces. Field capacity and infiltration rate can vary throughout the freezing and thawing period, depending on soil conditions and rate and timing of snowmelt. The model can be used to determine the effects of seasonally frozen soils on ground-water recharge and surface-water runoff. Data collected for two winters, 1985-86 and 1986-87, on three runoff plots were used to calibrate and verify the model. The winter of 1985-86 was colder than normal, and snow cover was continuous throughout the winter. The winter of 1986-87 was warmer than normal, and snow accumulated for only short periods of several days. as the criteria for determining the degree of agreement between simulated and measured data. The model was calibrated using the 1985-86 data for plot 2. The calibration simulation agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data and for plots 1 and 2 using the 1986-87 data agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulation for plot 3 using the 1986-87 data did not agree closely. The recalibration simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data indicated little improvement because the verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 already agreed closely with the measured data.

Documentation of a heat and water transfer model for seasonally frozen soils with application to a precipitation-runoff model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emerson, Douglas G.

1991-01-01

A model that simulates heat and water transfer in soils during freezing and thawing periods was developed and incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The transfer of heat 1s based on an equation developed from Fourier's equation for heat flux. Field capacity and infiltration rate can vary throughout the freezing and thawing period, depending on soil conditions and rate and timing of snowmelt. The transfer of water within the soil profile is based on the concept of capillary forces. The model can be used to determine the effects of seasonally frozen soils on ground-water recharge and surface-water runoff. Data collected for two winters, 1985-86 and 1986-87, on three runoff plots were used to calibrate and verify the model. The winter of 1985-86 was colder than normal and snow cover was continuous throughout the winter. The winter of 1986-87 was wanner than normal and snow accumulated for only short periods of several days.Runoff, snowmelt, and frost depths were used as the criteria for determining the degree of agreement between simulated and measured data. The model was calibrated using the 1985-86 data for plot 2. The calibration simulation agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data and for plots 1 and 2 using the 1986-87 data agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulation for plot 3 using the 1986-87 data did not agree closely. The recalibratlon simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data Indicated small improvement because the verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 already agreed closely with the measured data.

Causes of the 2011-15 California drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seager, R.; Hoerling, M. P.; Schubert, S. D.; Wang, H.; Lyon, B.; Kumar, A.; Nakamura, J.; Henderson, N.

2015-12-01

The causes of the California drought during November to April winters of 2011/12 to 2014/15 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Dry winters in California most typically arise from internal atmosphere variability but La Nina conditions can tip the odds in favor of dry conditions. The first of the four dry winters was indeed a La Nina. Winters 2012/13 and 2013/14 were however different and ENSO-neutral. However, the SST-forced models suggest that SST anomalies in the Indian and Pacific Oceans drove a wave train that placed a ridge over the northeast Pacific and North American west coast that generated dry conditions. After an El Nino failed to develop in 2014, the tropical SSTs reverted to a state similar to that in winter 2013/14 and California's wet season came to an abrupt end creating a fourth winter of drought. However, SST forcing cannot easily explain the severity of the ridge and drought conditions and constructive internal atmosphere variability might be needed to provide a full explanation. Recent idealized modeling work suggests that it is warm SSTs in the southern Indian Ocean and tropical west Pacific and cool anomalies in the central tropcial Pacific that combine to generate the responsible circulation anomalies. While the drought was driven by reduced precipitation, from the surface moisture perspective, warm conditions intensified the drought with the warmth attributable to a combination of natural variability and a long term warming trend that likely includes a human-driven component. While warming will continue to exert water stress, model projections from the CMIP5 suggest that California will experience a shorter, sharper, wet season but dynamical analysis suggests the projected mid-winter wetting is likely an overestimate. At the time of writing coupled forecast systems are predicting a strong El Nino to last through the winter. Historical records suggest that should increase the likelihood of a wetter than normal late winter (February through April) especially in southern California that, if it happens, will provide important but incomplete drought relief.

Attribution of UK Winter Floods to Anthropogenic Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaller, N.; Alison, K.; Sparrow, S. N.; Otto, F. E. L.; Massey, N.; Vautard, R.; Yiou, P.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; van Haren, R.; Lamb, R.; Huntingford, C.; Crooks, S.; Legg, T.; Weisheimer, A.; Bowery, A.; Miller, J.; Jones, R.; Stott, P.; Allen, M. R.

2014-12-01

Many regions of southern UK experienced severe flooding during the 2013/2014 winter. Simultaneously, large areas in the USA and Canada were struck by prolonged cold weather. At the time, the media and public asked whether the general rainy conditions over northern Europe and the cold weather over North America were caused by climate change. Providing an answer to this question is not trivial, but recent studies show that probabilistic event attribution is feasible. Using the citizen science project weather@home, we ran over 40'000 perturbed initial condition simulations of the 2013/2014 winter. These simulations fall into two categories: one set aims at simulating the world with climate change using observed sea surface temperatures while the second set is run with sea surface temperatures corresponding to a world that might have been without climate change. The relevant modelled variables are then downscaled by a hydrological model to obtain river flows. First results show that anthropogenic climate change led to a small but significant increase in the fractional attributable risk for 30-days peak flows for the river Thames. A single number can summarize the final result from probabilistic attribution studies indicating, for example, an increase, decrease or no change to the risk of the event occurring. However, communicating this to the public, media and other scientists remains challenging. The assumptions made in the chain of models used need to be explained. In addition, extreme events, like the UK floods of the 2013/2014 winter, are usually caused by a range of factors. While heavy precipitation events can be caused by dynamic and/or thermodynamic processes, floods occur only partly as a response to heavy precipitation. Depending on the catchment, they can be largely due to soil properties and conditions of the previous months. Probabilistic attribution studies are multidisciplinary and therefore all aspects need to be communicated properly.

Arctic Sea Ice, Eurasia Snow, and Extreme Winter Haze in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Y.; Wang, Y.; Xie, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Koo, J. H.

2017-12-01

Eastern China is experiencing more severe haze pollution in winter during recent years. Though the environmental deterioration in this region is usually attributed to the high intensity of anthropogenic emissions and large contributions from secondary aerosol formation, the impact of climate variability is also indispensable given its significant influence on regional weather systems and pollution ventilation. Here we analyzed the air quality related winter meteorological conditions over Eastern China in the last four decades and showed a worsening trend in poor regional air pollutant ventilation. Such variations increased the probability of extreme air pollution events, which is in good agreement with aerosol observations of recent years. We further identified the key circulation pattern that is conducive to the weakening ventilation and investigated the relationship between synoptic circulation changes and multiple climate forcing variables. Both statistical analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the poor ventilation condition is linked to boreal cryosphere changes including Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn and Eurasia snowfall in earlier winter. We conducted comprehensive dynamic diagnosis and proposed a physical mechanism to explain the observed and simulated circulation changes. At last, we examined future projections of winter extreme stagnation events based on the CMIP5 projection data.

Computational and experimental study of atmospheric moisture in ceramic blocks filled with waste fibres in winter season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stastnik, S.

2016-06-01

Development of materials for vertical outer building structures tends to application of hollow clay blocks filled with some appropriate insulation material. Ceramic fittings provide high thermal resistance, but the walls built from them suffer from condensation of air humidity in winter season frequently. The paper presents the computational simulation and experimental laboratory validation of moisture behaviour of such masonry with insulation prepared from waste fibres under the Central European climatic conditions.

Simulator with integrated HW and SW for prediction of thermal comfort to provide feedback to the climate control system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokorný, Jan; Kopečková, Barbora; Fišer, Jan; JÍcha, Miroslav

2018-06-01

The aim of the paper is to assemble a simulator for evaluation of thermal comfort in car cabins in order to give a feedback to the HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) system. The HW (hardware) part of simulator is formed by thermal manikin Newton and RH (relative humidity), velocity and temperature probes. The SW (software) part consists of the Thermal Comfort Analyser (using ISO 14505-2) and Virtual Testing Stand of Car Cabin defining the heat loads of car cabin. Simulator can provide recommendation for the climate control how to improve thermal comfort in cabin by distribution and directing of air flow, and also by amount of ventilation power to keep optimal temperature inside a cabin. The methods of evaluation of thermal comfort were verified by tests with 10 test subjects for summer (summer clothing, ambient air temperature 30 °C, HVAC setup: +24 °C auto) and winter conditions (winter clothing, ambient air temperature -5 °C, HVAC setup: +18 °C auto). The tests confirmed the validity of the thermal comfort evaluation using the thermal manikin and ISO 14505-2.

Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE): A new method for simulating future climate in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems.

PubMed

Templer, Pamela H; Reinmann, Andrew B; Sanders-DeMott, Rebecca; Sorensen, Patrick O; Juice, Stephanie M; Bowles, Francis; Sofen, Laura E; Harrison, Jamie L; Halm, Ian; Rustad, Lindsey; Martin, Mary E; Grant, Nicholas

2017-01-01

Climate models project an increase in mean annual air temperatures and a reduction in the depth and duration of winter snowpack for many mid and high latitude and high elevation seasonally snow-covered ecosystems over the next century. The combined effects of these changes in climate will lead to warmer soils in the growing season and increased frequency of soil freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) in winter due to the loss of a continuous, insulating snowpack. Previous experiments have warmed soils or removed snow via shoveling or with shelters to mimic projected declines in the winter snowpack. To our knowledge, no experiment has examined the interactive effects of declining snowpack and increased frequency of soil FTCs, combined with soil warming in the snow-free season on terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, none have mimicked directly the projected increase in soil FTC frequency in tall statured forests that is expected as a result of a loss of insulating snow in winter. We established the Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE) at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the White Mountains of New Hampshire in 2012 to assess the combined effects of these changes in climate on a variety of pedoclimate conditions, biogeochemical processes, and ecology of northern hardwood forests. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of creating soil FTC events in a tall statured ecosystem in winter to simulate the projected increase in soil FTC frequency over the next century and combines this projected change in winter climate with ecosystem warming throughout the snow-free season. Together, this experiment provides a new and more comprehensive approach for climate change experiments that can be adopted in other seasonally snow-covered ecosystems to simulate expected changes resulting from global air temperature rise.

Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE): A new method for simulating future climate in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems

PubMed Central

Templer, Pamela H.; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Sanders-DeMott, Rebecca; Sorensen, Patrick O.; Juice, Stephanie M.; Bowles, Francis; Sofen, Laura E.; Harrison, Jamie L.; Halm, Ian; Rustad, Lindsey; Martin, Mary E.; Grant, Nicholas

2017-01-01

Climate models project an increase in mean annual air temperatures and a reduction in the depth and duration of winter snowpack for many mid and high latitude and high elevation seasonally snow-covered ecosystems over the next century. The combined effects of these changes in climate will lead to warmer soils in the growing season and increased frequency of soil freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) in winter due to the loss of a continuous, insulating snowpack. Previous experiments have warmed soils or removed snow via shoveling or with shelters to mimic projected declines in the winter snowpack. To our knowledge, no experiment has examined the interactive effects of declining snowpack and increased frequency of soil FTCs, combined with soil warming in the snow-free season on terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, none have mimicked directly the projected increase in soil FTC frequency in tall statured forests that is expected as a result of a loss of insulating snow in winter. We established the Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE) at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the White Mountains of New Hampshire in 2012 to assess the combined effects of these changes in climate on a variety of pedoclimate conditions, biogeochemical processes, and ecology of northern hardwood forests. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of creating soil FTC events in a tall statured ecosystem in winter to simulate the projected increase in soil FTC frequency over the next century and combines this projected change in winter climate with ecosystem warming throughout the snow-free season. Together, this experiment provides a new and more comprehensive approach for climate change experiments that can be adopted in other seasonally snow-covered ecosystems to simulate expected changes resulting from global air temperature rise. PMID:28207766

The implication of irrigation in climate change impact assessment: a European-wide study.

PubMed

Zhao, Gang; Webber, Heidi; Hoffmann, Holger; Wolf, Joost; Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank

2015-11-01

This study evaluates the impacts of projected climate change on irrigation requirements and yields of six crops (winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, grain maize, potato, and sugar beet) in Europe. Furthermore, the uncertainty deriving from consideration of irrigation, CO2 effects on crop growth and transpiration, and different climate change scenarios in climate change impact assessments is quantified. Net irrigation requirement (NIR) and yields of the six crops were simulated for a baseline (1982-2006) and three SRES scenarios (B1, B2 and A1B, 2040-2064) under rainfed and irrigated conditions, using a process-based crop model, SIMPLACE . We found that projected climate change decreased NIR of the three winter crops in northern Europe (up to 81 mm), but increased NIR of all the six crops in the Mediterranean regions (up to 182 mm yr(-1) ). Climate change increased yields of the three winter crops and sugar beet in middle and northern regions (up to 36%), but decreased their yields in Mediterranean countries (up to 81%). Consideration of CO2 effects can alter the direction of change in NIR for irrigated crops in the south and of yields for C3 crops in central and northern Europe. Constraining the model to rainfed conditions for spring crops led to a negative bias in simulating climate change impacts on yields (up to 44%), which was proportional to the irrigation ratio of the simulation unit. Impacts on NIR and yields were generally consistent across the three SRES scenarios for the majority of regions in Europe. We conclude that due to the magnitude of irrigation and CO2 effects, they should both be considered in the simulation of climate change impacts on crop production and water availability, particularly for crops and regions with a high proportion of irrigated crop area. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Improvement in Simulation of Eurasian Winter Climate Variability with a Realistic Arctic Sea Ice Condition in an Atmospheric GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong

2012-01-01

The present study investigates how much a realistic Arctic sea ice condition can contribute to improve simulation of the winter climate variation over the Eurasia region. Model experiments are set up using different sea ice boundary conditions over the past 24 years (i.e., 1988-2011). One is an atmospheric model inter-comparison (AMIP) type of run forced with observed sea-surface temperature (SST), sea ice, and greenhouse gases (referred to as Exp RSI), and the other is the same as Exp RSI except for the sea ice forcing, which is a repeating climatological annual cycle (referred to as Exp CSI). Results show that Exp RSI produces the observed dominant pattern of Eurasian winter temperatures and their interannual variation better than Exp CSI (correlation difference up to approx. 0.3). Exp RSI captures the observed strong relationship between the sea ice concentration near the Barents and Kara seas and the temperature anomaly across Eurasia, including northeastern Asia, which is not well captured in Exp CSI. Lagged atmospheric responses to sea ice retreat are examined using observations to understand atmospheric processes for the Eurasian cooling response including the Arctic temperature increase, sea-level pressure increase, upper-level jet weakening and cold air outbreak toward the mid-latitude. The reproducibility of these lagged responses by Exp RSI is also evaluated.

Lighting Condition Analysis for Mars' Moon Phobos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Zu Qun; de Carufel, Guy; Crues, Edwin Z.; Bielski, Paul

2016-01-01

This study used high fidelity computer simulation to investigate the lighting conditions, specifically the solar radiation flux over the surface, on Phobos. Ephemeris data from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) DE405 model was used to model the state of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and Mars. An occultation model was developed to simulate Phobos' self-shadowing and its solar eclipses by Mars. The propagated Phobos state was compared with data from JPL's Horizon system to ensure the accuracy of the result. Results for Phobos lighting conditions over one Martian year are presented, which include the duration of solar eclipses, average solar radiation intensity, surface exposure time, available energy per unit area for sun tracking arrays, and available energy per unit area for fixed arrays (constrained by incident angle). The results show that: Phobos' solar eclipse time varies throughout the Martian year, with longer eclipse durations during the Martian spring and fall seasons and no eclipses during the Martian summer and winter seasons; solar radiation intensity is close to minimum at the summer solstice and close to maximum at the winter solstice; exposure time per orbit is relatively constant over the surface during the spring and fall but varies with latitude during the summer and winter; and Sun tracking solar arrays generate more energy than a fixed solar array. A usage example of the result is also present in this paper to demonstrate the utility.

Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozdniakov, S.; Lykhina, N.

2010-03-01

Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions Diffusive groundwater recharge is a vertical water flux through the water table, i.e. through the boundary between the unsaturated and saturated zones. This flux features temporal and spatial changes due to variations in the climatic conditions, landscape the state of vegetation, and the spatial variability of vadoze zone characteristics. In a changing climate the non-steady state series of climatic characteristics will affect on the groundwater recharge.. A well-tested approach to calculating water flux through the vadoze zone is the application of Richard’s equations for a heterogeneous one-domain porosity continuum with specially formulated atmospheric boundary conditions at the ground surface. In this approach the climatic parameters are reflected in upper boundary conditions, while the recharge series is the flux through the low boundary. In this work developed by authors code Surfbal that simulates water cycle at surface of topsoil to take into account the various condition of precipitation transformation at the surface in different seasons under different vegetation cover including snow accumulation in winter and melting in spring is used to generate upper boundary condition at surface of topsoil for world-wide known Hydrus-1D code (Simunek et al, 2008). To estimate the proposal climate change effect we performed Surfbal and Hydrus simulation using the steady state climatic condition and transient condition due to global warming on example of Moscow region, Russia. The following scenario of climate change in 21 century in Moscow region was selected: the annual temperature will increase on 4C during 100 year and annual precipitation will increase on 10% (Solomon et al, 2007). Within the year the maximum increasing of temperature and precipitation falls on winter time, while in middle of summer temperature will remain almost the same as observed now and monthly precipitation. For simulating climate input the weather generator LARSWG (Semenov and Barrow 1997) was trained for generation daily meteorological records for both steady state and transient climatic conditions and two 100 year of meteorological series of minimum and maximum of air temperature, solar radiation and precipitation were generated. The numerical experiment for studying of transient climate on groundwater was performed for typical vadoze zone parameters of western part of Moscow Artesian basin. As the result, the 100 years series of recharge were simulated. Examination of stochastic properties of simulated time-series and comparative analysis series for the transient and for the steady state conditions shows the trend of increasing of recharge in this region in transient climate. Analysis of daily and monthly simulated water balance shows that this increasing is result of winter snow melting and winter infiltration into thaw topsoil. This work was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research via grant 08-05-00720a REFERENCES Semenov M.A and Barrow E.M., 1997. Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 35:397-414 Šimůnek, J., M. Th. van Genuchten, and M. Šejna, 2008. Development and applications of the HYDRUS and STANMOD software packages, and related codes, Vadose Zone Journal, doi:10.2136/VZJ2007.0077, Special Issue "Vadose Zone Modeling", 7(2), 587-600. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Comparative Evaluation of Performances of Two Versions of NCEP Climate Forecast System in Predicting Winter Precipitation over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Nair, Archana; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.

2016-06-01

The precipitation during winter (December through February) over India is highly variable in terms of time and space. Maximum precipitation occurs over the Himalaya region, which is important for water resources and agriculture sectors over the region and also for the economy of the country. Therefore, in the present global warming era, the realistic prediction of winter precipitation over India is important for planning and implementing agriculture and water management strategies. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issued the operational prediction of climatic variables in monthly to seasonal scale since 2004 using their first version of fully coupled global climate model known as Climate Forecast System (CFSv1). In 2011, a new version of CFS (CFSv2) was introduced with the incorporation of significant changes in older version of CFS (CFSv1). The new version of CFS is required to compare in detail with the older version in the context of simulating the winter precipitation over India. Therefore, the current study presents a detailed analysis on the performance of CFSv2 as compared to CFSv1 for the winter precipitation over India. The hindcast runs of both CFS versions from 1982 to 2008 with November initial conditions are used and the model's precipitation is evaluated with that of India Meteorological Department (IMD). The models simulated wind and geopotential height against the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis-2 (NNRP2) and remote response patterns of SST against Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperatures version 3b (ERSSTv3b) are examined for the same period. The analyses of winter precipitation revealed that both the models are able to replicate the patterns of observed climatology; interannual variability and coefficient of variation. However, the magnitude is lesser than IMD observation that can be attributed to the model's inability to simulate the observed remote response of sea surface temperatures to all India winter precipitation. Of the two, CFSv1 is appreciable in capturing year-to-year variations in observed winter precipitation while CFSv2 failed in simulating the same. CFSv1 has accounted for less mean bias and RMSE errors along with good correlations and index of agreements than CFSv2 for predicting winter precipitation over India. In addition, the CFSv1 is also having a high probability of detection in predicting different categories (normal, excess and deficit) of observed winter precipitation over India.

Runoff simulations from the Greenland ice sheet at Kangerlussuaq from 2006-2007 to 2007/08. West Greenland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mernild, Sebastian Haugard; Hasholt, Bent; Van Den Broeke, Michiel

2009-01-01

This study focuses on runoff from a large sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) - the Kangerlussuaq drainage area, West Greenland - for the runoff observation period 2006/07 to 2007/08. SnowModel, a state-of-the-art snow-evolution modeling system, was used to simulate winter accumulation and summer ablation processes, including runoff. Independent in situ end-of-winter snow depth and high-resolution runoff observations were used for validation of simulated accumulation and ablation processes. Runoff was modeled on both daily and hourly time steps, filling a data gap of runoff exiting part of the GrIS. Using hourly meteorological driving data instead of smoothed daily-averaged datamore » produced more realistic meteorological conditions in relation to snow and melt threshold surface processes, and produced 6-17% higher annual cumulative runoff. The simulated runoff series yielded useful insights into the present conditions of inter-seasonal and inter-annual variability of Kangerlussuaq runoff, and provided an acceptable degree of agreement between simulated and observed runoff. The simulated spatial runoff distributions, in some areas of the GrIS terminus, were as high as 2,750 mm w.eq. of runoff for 2006/07, while only 900 mm w.eq was simulated for 2007/08. The simulated total runoff from Kangerlussuaq was 1.9 km{sup 3} for 2006/07 and 1.2 km{sup 3} for 2007/08, indicating a reduction of 35-40% caused by the climate conditions and changes in the GrIS freshwater storage. The reduction in runoff from 2006/07 to 2007/08 occurred simultaneously with the reduction in the overall pattern of satellite-derived GrIS surface melt from 2007 to 2008.« less

Influence of prolonged Anomalies in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on Winter Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Schuster, Mareike; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

The focus of this presentation is on decadal scale variations in the frequency and in the intensity of mid-latitude winter windstorms. Projections for the end of the next century are often beyond the time horizon of business, thus there is an increasing interest on decadal prediction, especially for infrastructural planning and in the insurance industry. One source of decadal predictability is the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), a change in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic, strongly linked to the meridional overturning circulation. Correlation patterns between annual AMV-indices and annual mean of geopotential height at 500 hPa in reanalysis data show an anti-correlation in the North Atlantic. That is, during AMV warm phases the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is more negative. Consequently, AMV should influence the characteristics of winter windstorms at multi-year scales. For the presented investigations a 10-member ensemble of 38-year-long idealized simulations with the atmosphere model ECHAM6 with lower boundary conditions, representing warm and cool phases of the AMV, is used. In the idealized simulations, the anti-correlation between AMV and NAO is well represented. For the identification of winter windstorms an objective wind tracking algorithm based on the exceedance of the local 98th percentile of 10m wind speed is applied. Storms under AMV-warm and AMV-cool conditions will be compared in terms of storm track density and probability distribution of storm characteristics.

Sensitivities of winter ozone pollution events in oil and gas producing regions to VOCs, NOx and radicals (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, P. M.; Aikin, K.; De Gouw, J. A.; Dube, W. P.; Geiger, F.; Gilman, J.; Helmig, D.; Holloway, J.; Kercher, J. P.; Koss, A.; Lerner, B. M.; Martin, R. S.; McLaren, R.; Min, K.; Parrish, D. D.; Peischl, J.; Roberts, J. M.; Ryerson, T. B.; Thornton, J. A.; Veres, P. R.; Warneke, C.; Wild, R. J.; Williams, E. J.; Young, C.; Yuan, B.; Brown, S. S.

2013-12-01

The Uintah Basin in northeastern Utah, a region of intense oil and gas extraction, experienced ozone (O3) mixing ratios well above limits set by air quality standards for multiple days during three of the last four winters. The Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS) consisted of two field intensives, in early 2012 and 2013, with the goal of addressing current uncertainties in the chemical and physical processes that drive wintertime O3 production in regions of oil and gas development. The data from these two study periods provide an excellent comparison of high and low O3 production years, as meteorological conditions during the winter of 2011-2012 resulted in no elevated O3 mixing ratios, in contrast to the winter of 2012-2013 when observed O3 mixing ratios were the highest yet recorded in the Uintah Basin. Box modeling studies, using the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM v3.2) chemistry scheme, have been used to investigate our understanding of O3 photochemistry in this unusual emissions environment. Simulations identify O3 production in 2012 to be highly radical limited, with less conventional radical sources, such as HCHO, HONO, and ClNO2 photolysis, playing a central role. Consequently, O3 production during 2012 was highly VOC sensitive, despite the much larger mixing ratio of total non-methane hydrocarbons relative to NO¬x. Conditions during UBWOS 2013 resulted in significantly higher O3 precursor species concentrations than during 2012, including the concentrations of the radical precursors HCHO and HONO. Simulations constrained to the 2013 data show the effects of these changes in pre-cursor concentrations on the radical budget, and thus on local O3 photochemistry and its sensitivities during a wintertime O3 pollution episode.

Attribution of low precipitation in California during the winter of 2013-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mera, R. J.; Ekwurzel, B.; Rupp, D. E.

2014-12-01

The record-setting drought in the state of California was further aggravated by extreme low precipitation in the winter of 2013-2014 and the associated low snow cover over the Sierra Nevada. Attribution work on the decline in Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover (Rupp et al. 2013) has shown that the decrease was likely the result of combined natural and anthropogenic forcing but not by natural forcing alone. Regional model superensemble simulations of snow water equivalent (SWE) with the Hadley Regional Climate Model (HadRM3P) shows the decline as a statistically-significant, linear trend for the Western US from 1961 to 2010. The present work focuses on attribution of these events by employing a superensemble of regional climate model simulations from the climateprediction.net (CPDN) experiment, which allows for robust statistical analysis of extreme events. Specifically, we compare the decade of the 2000s and the 1960s, which had different levels of heat-trapping gases and forcing from natural variability, among other factors. A linear regression of wet days and number of days with precipitation above 40 mm shows a strong drying pattern for the winter months of December, January, February, March (DJFM), especially for northern California and the Sierra Nevada. A strong warming pattern is also present during the winter months, with the minimum temperatures outpacing maximum temperatures for the Pacific Northwest. We will also investigate how simulations for DJFM 2013-2014, using only natural forcing provided CMIP5 HistoricalNat boundary conditions, compare against the model simulations using observations as boundary conditions. Results from this experiment also highlight the influence of increasing number of simulations on confidence intervals, which significantly reduces the uncertainty of both the change in magnitude of a given event and its corresponding return period.Rupp, David E., Philip W. Mote, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Peter A. Stott, David A. Robinson, 2013: Detection and Attribution of Observed Changes in Northern Hemisphere Spring Snow Cover. J. Climate, 26, 6904-6914.doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00563.1

Wave-Current Conditions and Navigation Safety at an Inlet Entrance

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-26

effects of physical processes. Wave simulations with refraction, shoaling, and breaking provide estimates of wave-related parameters of interest to...summer and winter months and to better understand the cause- effect relationship between navigability conditions at Tillamook Inlet and characteristics of...the Coriolis force, wind stress, wave stress, bottom stress, vegetation flow drag, bottom friction, wave roller, and turbulent diffusion. Governing

Assessment of an extended version of the Jenkinson-Collison classification on CMIP5 models over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, Noelia; Sillmann, Jana; Butler, Tim

2018-03-01

A gridded, geographically extended weather type classification has been developed based on the Jenkinson-Collison (JC) classification system and used to evaluate the representation of weather types over Europe in a suite of climate model simulations. To this aim, a set of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is compared with the circulation from two reanalysis products. Furthermore, we examine seasonal changes between simulated frequencies of weather types at present and future climate conditions. The models are in reasonably good agreement with the reanalyses, but some discrepancies occur in cyclonic days being overestimated over North, and underestimated over South Europe, while anticyclonic situations were overestimated over South, and underestimated over North Europe. Low flow conditions were generally underestimated, especially in summer over South Europe, and Westerly conditions were generally overestimated. The projected frequencies of weather types in the late twenty-first century suggest an increase of Anticyclonic days over South Europe in all seasons except summer, while Westerly days increase over North and Central Europe, particularly in winter. We find significant changes in the frequency of Low flow conditions and the Easterly type that become more frequent during the warmer seasons over Southeast and Southwest Europe, respectively. Our results indicate that in winter the Westerly type has significant impacts on positive anomalies of maximum and minimum temperature over most of Europe. Except in winter, the warmer temperatures are linked to Easterlies, Anticyclonic and Low Flow conditions, especially over the Mediterranean area. Furthermore, we show that changes in the frequency of weather types represent a minor contribution of the total change of European temperatures, which would be mainly driven by changes in the temperature anomalies associated with the weather types themselves.

Mate loss in winter and mallard reproduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lercel, Barbara A.; Kaminski, Richard M.; Cox, Robert R.

1999-01-01

Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) frequently pair during winter, and duck hunting seasons have been extended until the end of January in several southern states in the Mississippi Flyway. Therefore, we simulated dissolution of pair bonds from natural or hunting mortality by removing mates of wild-strain, captive, yearling female mallards in late January 1996 and early February 1997 to test if mate loss in winter would affect subsequent pair formation and reproductive performance. Most (97%) widowed females paired again. Nesting and incubation frequencies, nest-initiation date, days between first and second nests, and egg mass did not differ (P > 0.126) between widowed and control (i.e., no mate loss experienced) females in 1996 and 1997. In 1997, widowed females laid 1.91 fewer eggs in first nests (P = 0.014) and 3.75 fewer viable eggs in second nests (P = 0.056). Computer simulations with a mallard productivity model (incorporating default parameters [i.e., average environmental conditions]) indicated that the observed decreased clutch size of first nests, fewer viable eggs in second nests, and these factors combined had potential to decrease recruitment rates of yearling female mallards 9%, 12%, and 20%. Our results indicate that winter mate loss could reduce reproductive performance by yearling female mallards in some years. We suggest caution regarding extending duck hunting seasons in winter without concurrent evaluations of harvest and demographics of mallard and other duck populations.

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Marshall, Susan; Erickson, David J., III; Robertson, Franklin R.; Roads, John O.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A key question in the study of the hydrologic cycle is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. We have also made sensitivity studies with exaggerated soil moisture and snow cover anomalies in order to determine the physical processes that may be important. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. The initial state of soil moisture does not appear important, a result that held whether simulations were started in late winter or late spring. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and hence climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectively of snow is the most important process by which snow cover cart impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. In early winter, the amount of solar radiation is very small and so this albedo effect is inconsequential while in late winter, with the sun higher in the sky and period of daylight longer, the effect is much stronger.

[Ecological benefits of planting winter rapeseed in western China].

PubMed

Wang, Xue-fang; Sun, Wan-cang; Li, Fang; Kang, Yan-li; Pu, Yuan-yuan; Liu, Hong-xia; Zeng, Chao-wu; Fan, Chong-xiu

2009-03-01

To evaluate the ecological benefits of popularizing winter rapeseed planting in western China, a wind tunnel simulation test was conducted with four kinds of farmland surface, i.e., winter rapeseed, winter wheat, wheat stubble, and bare field just after spring sowing, collected from west Gansu in April. The results showed that winter rapeseed surface had a roughness of 4.08 cm and a threshold wind velocity as high as 14 m x s(-1), being more effective in blown sand control than the other three surfaces. Under the same experimental conditions, the wind erosion modulus and sand transportation rate of winter rapeseed surface were only 4.1% and 485% of those of the bare field just after spring sowing, and the losses of soil organic matter, alkali-hydrolyzed N, available P and K, catalase, urease, alkaline phosphatase, invertase, and microbes of winter rapeseed surface due to wind erosion were only 1.4%, 5.1%, 1.6%, 2.7%, 9.7%, 3.6%, 6.3%, 6.7% and 1.5% of those of the bare field, respectively. It was suggested that popularizing winter rapeseed planting in west China could control wind erosion, retain soil water and nutrients, increase multicropping index, and improve economic benefits of farmland. In addition, it could benefit the regional desertification control and ecological environment improvement.

Subseasonal Reversal of East Asian Surface Temperature Variability in Winter 2014/15

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xinping; Li, Fei; He, Shengping; Wang, Huijun

2018-06-01

Although there has been a considerable amount of research conducted on the East Asian winter-mean climate, subseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) variability reversals in the early and late winter remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on the recent winter of 2014/15, in which warmer anomalies dominated in January and February but colder conditions prevailed in December. Moreover, Arctic sea-ice cover (ASIC) in September-October 2014 was lower than normal, and warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies occurred in the Niño4 region in winter, together with a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO|+) phase. Using observational data and CMIP5 historical simulations, we investigated the PDO|+ phase modulation upon the winter warm Niño4 phase (autumn ASIC reduction) influence on the subseasonal SAT variability of East Asian winter. The results show that, under a PDO|+ phase modulation, warm Niño4 SST anomalies are associated with a subseasonal delay of tropical surface heating and subsequent Hadley cell and Ferrel cell intensification in January-February, linking the tropical and midlatitude regions. Consistently, the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) is significantly decelerated in January-February and hence promotes the warm anomalies over East Asia. Under the PDO|+ phase, the decrease in ASIC is related to cold SST anomalies in the western North Pacific, which increase the meridional temperature gradient and generate an accelerated and westward-shifted EAJS in December. The westward extension of the EAJS is responsible for the eastward-propagating Rossby waves triggered by declining ASIC and thereby favors the connection between ASIC and cold conditions over East Asia.

Winter temperature conditions (1670-2010) reconstructed from varved sediments, western Canadian High Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amann, Benjamin; Lamoureux, Scott F.; Boreux, Maxime P.

2017-09-01

Advances in paleoclimatology from the Arctic have provided insights into long-term climate conditions. However, while past annual and summer temperature have received considerable research attention, comparatively little is known about winter paleoclimate. Arctic winter is of special interest as it is the season with the highest sensitivity to climate change, and because it differs substantially from summer and annual measures. Therefore, information about past changes in winter climate is key to improve our knowledge of past forced climate variability and to reduce uncertainty in climate projections. In this context, Arctic lakes with snowmelt-fed catchments are excellent potential winter climate archives. They respond strongly to snowmelt-induced runoff, and indirectly to winter temperature and snowfall conditions. To date, only a few well-calibrated lake sediment records exist, which appear to reflect site-specific responses with differing reconstructions. This limits the possibility to resolve large-scale winter climate change prior the instrumental period. Here, we present a well-calibrated quantitative temperature and snowfall record for the extended winter season (November through March; NDJFM) from Chevalier Bay (Melville Island, NWT, Canadian Arctic) back to CE 1670. The coastal embayment has a large catchment influenced by nival terrestrial processes, which leads to high sedimentation rates and annual sedimentary structures (varves). Using detailed microstratigraphic analysis from two sediment cores and supported by μ-XRF data, we separated the nival sedimentary units (spring snowmelt) from the rainfall units (summer) and identified subaqueous slumps. Statistical correlation analysis between the proxy data and monthly climate variables reveals that the thickness of the nival units can be used to predict winter temperature (r = 0.71, pc < 0.01, 5-yr filter) and snowfall (r = 0.65, pc < 0.01, 5-yr filter) for the western Canadian High Arctic over the last ca. 400 years. Results reveal a strong variability in winter temperature back to CE 1670 with the coldest decades reconstructed for the period CE 1800-1880, while the warmest decades and major trends are reconstructed for the period CE 1880-1930 (0.26°C/decade) and CE 1970-2010 (0.37°C/decade). Although the first aim of this study was to increase the paleoclimate data coverage for the winter season, the record from Chevalier Bay also holds great potential for more applied climate research such as data-model comparisons and proxy-data assimilation in climate model simulations.

Developmental arrest during embryonic development of the common chameleon (Chamaeleo chamaeleon) in Spain.

PubMed

Andrews, Robin M; Díaz-Paniagua, Carmen; Marco, Adolfo; Portheault, Alexandre

2008-01-01

Embryonic development of the common chameleon, Chamaeleo chamaeleon, was monitored from oviposition to hatching at a field site in southwestern Spain and in the laboratory under five experimental temperature regimes. Embryos were diapausing gastrulae at the time of oviposition; developmental arrest in the field continued as cold torpor during winter. Postarrest development in the field commenced in April, and hatching occurred in August, for a total incubation period of 10.5 mo. In the laboratory, one group of eggs was incubated at a constant warm (26 degrees C) temperature. The remaining treatments simulated field conditions and consisted of initial periods of warm temperature of 0, 27, 46, and 71 d, a subsequent 4-mo period of cold winter (16 degrees C) temperature, and a final period of warm (26 degrees C) temperature. Embryos in the constant warm temperature treatment were in diapause an average of 3 mo, with clutch means ranging from 2 to 4 mo. Hatching among clutches occurred over 2 mo. In contrast, for field and experimental eggs that experienced cold winter conditions, hatching within treatments occurred over 2-14 d; "winter" conditions synchronized development. The length of time between the end of cold conditions and hatching did not differ among treatments; development thus resumed as soon as temperature was suitable regardless of the initial period of warm temperature. Diapause in nature thus insures that embryos remain gastrulae after oviposition despite nest temperatures that may be warm enough to support development.

Projected climate change impacts on skiing and snowmobiling: A case study of the United States

EPA Science Inventory

A physically-based water and energy balance model is used to simulate natural snow accumulation at 247 winter recreation locations across the continental United States. We combine this model with projections of snowmaking conditions to determine downhill skiing, cross-country ski...

Global and Regional Impacts of HONO on the Chemical Composition of Clouds and Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshorbany, Y. F.; Crutzen, P. J.; Steil, B.; Pozzer, A.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.

2014-01-01

Recently, realistic simulation of nitrous acid (HONO) based on the HONO / NOx ratio of 0.02 was found to have a significant impact on the global budgets of HOx (OH + HO2) and gas phase oxidation products in polluted regions, especially in winter when other photolytic sources are of minor importance. It has been reported that chemistry-transport models underestimate sulphate concentrations, mostly during winter. Here we show that simulating realistic HONO levels can significantly enhance aerosol sulphate (S(VI)) due to the increased formation of H2SO4. Even though in-cloud aqueous phase oxidation of dissolved SO2 (S(IV)) is the main source of S(VI), it appears that HONO related enhancement of H2O2 does not significantly affect sulphate because of the predominantly S(IV) limited conditions, except over eastern Asia. Nitrate is also increased via enhanced gaseous HNO3 formation and N2O5 hydrolysis on aerosol particles. Ammonium nitrate is enhanced in ammonia-rich regions but not under ammonia-limited conditions. Furthermore, particle number concentrations are also higher, accompanied by the transfer from hydrophobic to hydrophilic aerosol modes. This implies a significant impact on the particle lifetime and cloud nucleating properties. The HONO induced enhancements of all species studied are relatively strong in winter though negligible in summer. Simulating realistic HONO levels is found to improve the model measurement agreement of sulphate aerosols, most apparent over the US. Our results underscore the importance of HONO for the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and corroborate the central role of cloud chemical processing in S(IV) formation

Understanding High Wintertime Ozone Events over an Oil and Natural Gas Production Region from Air Quality Model Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadov, R.; McKeen, S. A.; Trainer, M.; Banta, R. M.; Brown, S. S.; Edwards, P. M.; Frost, G. J.; Gilman, J.; Helmig, D.; Johnson, B.; Karion, A.; Koss, A.; Lerner, B. M.; Oltmans, S. J.; Roberts, J. M.; Schnell, R. C.; Veres, P. R.; Warneke, C.; Williams, E. J.; Wild, R. J.; Yuan, B.; Zamora, R. J.; Petron, G.; De Gouw, J. A.; Peischl, J.

2014-12-01

The huge increase in production of oil and natural gas has been associated with high wintertime ozone events over some parts of the western US. The Uinta Basin, UT, where oil and natural gas production is abundant experienced high ozone concentrations in winters of recent years, when cold stagnant weather conditions were prevalent. It has been very challenging for conventional air quality models to accurately simulate such wintertime ozone pollution cases. Here, a regional air quality model study was successfully conducted for the Uinta Basin by using the WRF-Chem model. For this purpose a new emission dataset for the region's oil/gas sector was built based on atmospheric in-situ measurements made during 2012 and 2013 field campaigns in the Uinta Basin. The WRF-Chem model demonstrates that the major factors driving high ozone in the Uinta Basin in winter are shallow boundary layers with light winds, high emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) compared to nitrogen oxides emissions from the oil and natural gas industry, enhancement of photolysis rates and reduction of O3 dry deposition due to snow cover. We present multiple sensitivity simulations to quantify the contribution of various factors driving high ozone over the Uinta Basin. The emission perturbation simulations show that the photochemical conditions in the Basin during winter of 2013 were VOC sensitive, which suggests that targeting VOC emissions would be most beneficial for regulatory purposes. Shortcomings of the emissions within the most recent US EPA (NEI-2011, version 1) inventory are also discussed.

Ice cover affects the growth of a stream-dwelling fish.

PubMed

Watz, Johan; Bergman, Eva; Piccolo, John J; Greenberg, Larry

2016-05-01

Protection provided by shelter is important for survival and affects the time and energy budgets of animals. It has been suggested that in fresh waters at high latitudes and altitudes, surface ice during winter functions as overhead cover for fish, reducing the predation risk from terrestrial piscivores. We simulated ice cover by suspending plastic sheeting over five 30-m-long stream sections in a boreal forest stream and examined its effects on the growth and habitat use of brown trout (Salmo trutta) during winter. Trout that spent the winter under the artificial ice cover grew more than those in the control (uncovered) sections. Moreover, tracking of trout tagged with passive integrated transponders showed that in the absence of the artificial ice cover, habitat use during the day was restricted to the stream edges, often under undercut banks, whereas under the simulated ice cover condition, trout used the entire width of the stream. These results indicate that the presence of surface ice cover may improve the energetic status and broaden habitat use of stream fish during winter. It is therefore likely that reductions in the duration and extent of ice cover due to climate change will alter time and energy budgets, with potentially negative effects on fish production.

Contribution of different generations of the brown shrimp Crangon crangon (L.) in the Dutch Wadden Sea to commercial fisheries: A dynamic energy budget approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos, Joana; Van der Veer, Henk W.; Freitas, Vânia; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

2009-08-01

In this paper a contribution is made to the ongoing debate on which brown shrimp generation mostly sustains the autumn peak in coastal North Sea commercial fisheries: the generation born in summer, or the winter one. Since the two perspectives are based on different considerations on the growth timeframe from settlement till commercial size, the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory was applied to predict maximum possible growth under natural conditions. First, the parameters of the standard DEB model for Crangon crangon L. were estimated using available data sets. These were insufficient to allow a direct estimation, requiring a special protocol to achieve consistency between parameters. Next, the DEB model was validated by comparing simulations with published experimental data on shrimp growth in relation to water temperatures. Finally, the DEB model was applied to simulate growth under optimal food conditions using the prevailing water temperature conditions in the Wadden Sea. Results show clear differences between males and females whereby the fastest growth rates were observed in females. DEB model simulations of maximum growth in the Wadden Sea suggest that it is not the summer brood from the current year as Boddeke claimed, nor the previous winter generation as Kuipers and Dapper suggested, but more likely the summer generation from the previous year which contributes to the bulk of the fisheries recruits in autumn.

Experimental evidence for beneficial effects of projected climate change on hibernating amphibians.

PubMed

Üveges, Bálint; Mahr, Katharina; Szederkényi, Márk; Bókony, Veronika; Hoi, Herbert; Hettyey, Attila

2016-05-27

Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates today, experiencing worldwide declines. In recent years considerable effort was invested in exposing the causes of these declines. Climate change has been identified as such a cause; however, the expectable effects of predicted milder, shorter winters on hibernation success of temperate-zone Amphibians have remained controversial, mainly due to a lack of controlled experimental studies. Here we present a laboratory experiment, testing the effects of simulated climate change on hibernating juvenile common toads (Bufo bufo). We simulated hibernation conditions by exposing toadlets to current (1.5 °C) or elevated (4.5 °C) hibernation temperatures in combination with current (91 days) or shortened (61 days) hibernation length. We found that a shorter winter and milder hibernation temperature increased survival of toads during hibernation. Furthermore, the increase in temperature and shortening of the cold period had a synergistic positive effect on body mass change during hibernation. Consequently, while climate change may pose severe challenges for amphibians of the temperate zone during their activity period, the negative effects may be dampened by shorter and milder winters experienced during hibernation.

Solar Cycle/Seasonal Variations of H, D, H2 and He Distributions and Escape on Mars as Determined by the Mars Thermosphere Global Circulation Model (MTGCM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bougher, Stephen

2005-01-01

The Mars Thermosphere General Circulation Model (MTGCM) was exercised for Ls = 90 (aphelion) solar minimum, and Ls = 270 perihelion) solar maximum conditions. Simulated MTGCM outputs (i.e. helium density distributions) were compared to those previously observed for Earth and Venus. Winter polar night bulges of helium are predicted on Mars, similar to those observed on the nightside of Venus and in the winter polar regions of Earth. A poster on this research was presented at the European Geophysical Society Meeting (EGS) in 2003. This research paves the way for what might be expected in the polar night regions of Mars during upcoming aerobraking and mapping Campaigns. Lastly, Mars thermosphere (approx. 100-130 km) winter polar warming was observed at high Northern latitudes during the perihelion season, but not at high Southern latitudes during the opposite aphelion season. Presumably, the Mars thermospheric circulation is responsible for the dynamically controlled heating needed to warm polar night temperatures above radiative equilibrium values. Again, MTGCM simulations were conducted for Ls = 90 and Ls = 270 conditions; polar temperatures were examined and found to be much warmer at Northern high latitudes (perihelion) than at Southern high latitudes (aphelion), similar to Mars aerobraking datasets. The Mars thermospheric circulation is found to be stronger during perihelion solstice conditions than during aphelion conditions, owing to both stronger seasonal solar and dust heating during Mars perihelion. An invited talk was given at the Spring AGU 2004 on this research. A forthcoming GRL paper was drafted on this same topic, but not submitted before the termination of this 1-year grant.

Biogeochemical Impact of Snow Cover and Cyclonic Intrusions on the Winter Weddell Sea Ice Pack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tison, J.-L.; Schwegmann, S.; Dieckmann, G.; Rintala, J.-M.; Meyer, H.; Moreau, S.; Vancoppenolle, M.; Nomura, D.; Engberg, S.; Blomster, L. J.; Hendrickx, S.; Uhlig, C.; Luhtanen, A.-M.; de Jong, J.; Janssens, J.; Carnat, G.; Zhou, J.; Delille, B.

2017-12-01

Sea ice is a dynamic biogeochemical reactor and a double interface actively interacting with both the atmosphere and the ocean. However, proper understanding of its annual impact on exchanges, and therefore potentially on the climate, notably suffer from the paucity of autumnal and winter data sets. Here we present the results of physical and biogeochemical investigations on winter Antarctic pack ice in the Weddell Sea (R. V. Polarstern AWECS cruise, June-August 2013) which are compared with those from two similar studies conducted in the area in 1986 and 1992. The winter 2013 was characterized by a warm sea ice cover due to the combined effects of deep snow and frequent warm cyclones events penetrating southward from the open Southern Ocean. These conditions were favorable to high ice permeability and cyclic events of brine movements within the sea ice cover (brine tubes), favoring relatively high chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations. We discuss the timing of this algal activity showing that arguments can be presented in favor of continued activity during the winter due to the specific physical conditions. Large-scale sea ice model simulations also suggest a context of increasingly deep snow, warm ice, and large brine fractions across the three observational years, despite the fact that the model is forced with a snowfall climatology. This lends support to the claim that more severe Antarctic sea ice conditions, characterized by a longer ice season, thicker, and more concentrated ice are sufficient to increase the snow depth and, somehow counterintuitively, to warm the ice.

Bigger is not always better for overwintering young-of-year steelhead

USGS Publications Warehouse

Connolly, P.J.; Petersen, J.H.

2003-01-01

Many fishes occur across broad ranges of latitude and elevation, where winter temperatures can vary from mild to harsh. We conducted a laboratory experiment with three sizes of age-0 steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss to examine growth, condition, and energy reserves under low rations at three levels of water temperature typical of this species' distribution during winter. At the end of the 111-d experiment, all three starting sizes of age-0 steelhead (small, 2-3 g; medium, 3-4 g; large, 4-5 g) held in 3??C water had lower total lipid weight than those held in 6??C and 9??C water. Large fish had higher total lipid weight than small fish at the onset of the experiment and retained higher amounts at the end. However, large fish had either the lowest percentage increases or the highest percentage decreases in fork length, biomass, condition factor, total lipid weight, and percent lipids within all thermal treatments. The magnitude of the differences between small and large fish was highest in the warmest (9??C) water. We used bioenergetics simulations of juvenile steelhead growth to examine fish response to initial size, winter temperature, and food availability. Relatively warm water temperatures in winter, coupled with limited food availability, may present more of a physiological challenge to larger age-0 steelhead than to smaller fish. Our results suggest that achievement of large size before the start of a steelhead's first winter can have a cost under episodic conditions found across the wide ranges of latitude and elevation within this species' distribution.

The dissipation and microbial ecotoxicity of tebuconazole and its transformation products in soil under standard laboratory and simulated winter conditions.

PubMed

El Azhari, Najoi; Dermou, Eftychia; Barnard, Romain L; Storck, Veronika; Tourna, Maria; Beguet, Jérémie; Karas, Panagiotis A; Lucini, Luigi; Rouard, Nadine; Botteri, Lucio; Ferrari, Federico; Trevisan, Marco; Karpouzas, Dimitrios G; Martin-Laurent, Fabrice

2018-05-12

Tebuconazole (TBZ) is a widely used triazole fungicide at EU level on cereals and vines. It is relatively persistent in soil where it is transformed to various transformation products (TPs) which might be environmentally relevant. We assessed the dissipation of TBZ in soil under contrasting incubation conditions (standard vs winter simulated) that are relevant to its application scheme, determined its transformation pathway using advanced analytical tools and 14 C-labeled TBZ and assessed its soil microbial toxicity. Mineralization of 14 C-triazole-ring-labeled TBZ was negligible but up to 11% of 14 C-penyl-ring-labeled TBZ evolved as 14 CO 2 within 150 days of incubation. TBZ persistence increased at higher dose rates (×10 compared to the recommended agronomical dose ×1) and under winter simulated conditions compared to standard incubation conditions (at ×1 dose rate DT 50 of 202 and 88 days, respectively). Non-target suspect screening enabled the detection of 22 TPs of TBZ, among which 17 were unknown. Mass spectrometry analysis led to the identification of 1-(4-chlorophenyl) ethanone, a novel TP of TBZ, the formation of which and decay in soil was determined by gas chromatography mass spectrometry. Three hypothetical transformation pathways of TBZ, all converging to 1H-1,2,4-triazole are proposed based on suspect screening. The ecotoxicological effect of TBZ and of its TPs was assessed by measuring by qPCR the abundance of the total bacteria and the relative abundance of 11 prokaryotic taxa and 4 functional groups. A transient impact of TBZ on the relative abundance of all prokaryotic taxa (except α-proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes) and one functional microbial group (pcaH-carrying microorganisms) was observed. However the direction of the effect (positive or negative) varied, and in certain cases, depended on the incubation conditions. Proteobacteria was the most responsive phylum to TBZ with recovery observed 20 days after treatment. The ecotoxicological effects on the soil microorganisms were not correlated with 1-(4-chlorophenyl) ethanone. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Shifting balance of thermokarst lake ice regimes across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Lu, Zong; Whitman, Matthew S.

2012-01-01

The balance of thermokarst lakes with bedfast- and floating-ice regimes across Arctic lowlands regulates heat storage, permafrost thaw, winter-water supply, and over-wintering aquatic habitat. Using a time-series of late-winter synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to distinguish lake ice regimes in two regions of the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska from 2003–2011, we found that 18% of the lakes had intermittent ice regimes, varying between bedfast-ice and floating-ice conditions. Comparing this dataset with a radar-based lake classification from 1980 showed that 16% of the bedfast-ice lakes had shifted to floating-ice regimes. A simulated lake ice thinning trend of 1.5 cm/yr since 1978 is believed to be the primary factor driving this form of lake change. The most profound impacts of this regime shift in Arctic lakes may be an increase in the landscape-scale thermal offset created by additional lake heat storage and its role in talik development in otherwise continuous permafrost as well as increases in over-winter aquatic habitat and winter-water supply.

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Marshall, Susan; Robertson, Franklin R.; Roads, John O.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A key question in the study of the hydrologic cycle is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. GAPP region in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. We have also made sensitivity studies with exaggerated soil moisture and snow cover anomalies in order to determine the physical processes that may be important. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. The initial state of soil moisture does not appear important, a result that held whether simulations were started in late winter or late spring. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and hence climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectivity of snow is the most important process by which snow cover can impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. In early winter, the amount of solar radiation is very small and so this albedo, effect is inconsequential while in late winter, with the sun higher in the sky and period of daylight longer, the effect is much stronger. The results to date were obtained for model runs with present-day conditions. We are currently analyzing runs made with projected forcings for the 21st century to see if these results are modified in any way under likely scenarios of future climate change.

Influence of winter temperature and simulated climate change on body mass and fat body depletion during diapause in adults of the solitary bee, Osmia rufa (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae).

PubMed

Fliszkiewicz, Monika; Giejdasz, Karol; Wasielewski, Oskar; Krishnan, Natraj

2012-12-01

The influence of simulated climate change on body weight and depletion of fat body reserves was studied during diapause in the European solitary bee Osmia rufa L. (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae). Insects (females) were reared and collected from outdoor nests from September to March. One cohort of females was weighed and dissected immediately for analyses, whereas another cohort was subjected to simulated warmer temperature (15°C for 7 d) before analyses. A gradual decline in body mass and fat body content was recorded with declining temperatures from September to January in female bees from natural conditions. Temperature increased gradually from January to March with a further decline in body mass and fat body content. The fat body development index dropped from five in September-October (≈ 89% individuals) to four for the period from November to February (≈ 84% individuals) and further to three in March (95% individuals) before emergence. Simulated warmer winter temperature also resulted in a similar decline in body weight and fat body content; however, body weight and fat body content declined faster. The fat body development index dropped to three in December in the majority of individuals and continued at this level until March just before emergence. Taken together, our data indicate an earlier depletion of fat body reserves under simulated climate change conditions that may impact ovarian development and reproductive fitness in O. rufa.

Energy-Sipping House Receives Technology Award

Science.gov Websites

, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) at its 2001 Winter Meeting in Atlanta. "This design for effective energy management and indoor air quality. For more information, visit Design and Energy Laboratory (NREL), and co-worker Paul Torcellini used computer simulations to design the house for

Handling of buses on slippery roads during the influence of side wind--a study of the effects of different tyres.

PubMed

Hjort, Mattias; Jansson, Jonas

2010-05-01

Accident statistics assembled by the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) have shown that buses are overrepresented when it comes to accidents on icy and snowy roads. For a better understanding of the problem, the performance of modern summer and winter tyres on winter road conditions had to be assessed. The objective of this work has been to go beyond standard road grip studies, and instead investigate how the driver's possibility to deal with one challenging situation depends on the tyres and tyre configuration. This paper describes a novel methodology where measurements with different tyres on ice in VTI's tyre test facility, enabled a simulator study for evaluating the impact of different tyre characteristics when driving in conditions with strong side wind on a slippery road. The main results of the study are: to deal with strong side wind, good front wheel grip is most important, and while non-studded winter tyres provided little or no improvement over summer tyres, studded winter tyres significantly reduced the risk to run off the road. Furthermore, it is very difficult for the drivers to judge, beforehand, whether a vehicle with a particular tyre configuration will perform good or bad. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on winter precipitation in The Cascades using a mixed-physics WRF ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buxton, Carly S.

In most of Washington and Oregon, USA, mountain snowpack stores water which will be available through spring and early summer, when water demand in the region is at its highest. Therefore, understanding the numerous factors that influence winter precipitation variability is a key component in water resource planning. This project examines the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest U.S. using the WRF-ARW regional climate model. A significant component of this work was evaluating the many options that WRF-ARW provides for representing sub-grid scale cloud microphysical processes. Because the "best" choice of microphysics parameterization can vary depending on the application, this project also seeks to determine which option leads to the most accurate simulation of winter precipitation (when compared to observations) in the complex terrain of the Pacific Northwest. A series of test runs were performed with eight different combinations of physics parameterizations, and the results of these test runs were used to narrow the number of physics options down to three for the final runs. Mean total precipitation and coefficient of variation of the final model runs were compared against observational data. As RCMs tend to do, WRF over-predicts mean total precipitation compared to observations, but the double-moment microphysics schemes, Thompson and Morrison, over-predict to a lesser extent than the single-moment scheme. Two WRF microphysics schemes, Thompson and Lin, were more likely to have a coefficient of variation within the range of observations. Overall, the Thompson scheme produced the most accurate simulation as compared to observations. To focus on the effects of the PDO, WRF simulations were performed for two ten-member ensembles, one for positive PDO Decembers, and one for negative PDO Decembers. WRF output of total precipitation was compared to both station and gridded observational data. During positive PDO conditions, there is a strong latitudinal signal at low elevations, while during negative PDO conditions, there is a strong latitudinal signal at high elevations. This shift in where the PDO signal is most visible is due to changes in mid-level westerly winds and upper-level circulation and temperature advection. Under positive PDO conditions, wind direction and moisture transport are the most important factors, and frequent warm, moist southwesterly winds cause a PDO signal at low elevations. Under negative PDO conditions, differences in westerly wind speed, and therefore orographic precipitation enhancement, lead to a latitudinal PDO signal at high elevations. This PDO signal is robust, appearing in both the WRF simulations and observational data, and the differences due to PDO phase exceed the differences due to choice of microphysics scheme, WRF internal variability, and observational data uncertainty.

Simulating low-flow conditions in an arctic watershed using WaSiM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daanen, R. P.; Gaedeke, A.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Arp, C. D.; Whitman, M. S.; Jones, B. M.; Cai, L.; Alexeev, V. A.

2017-12-01

The goal of this study is to identify the magnitude, timing, and duration of low-flow conditions under scenarios of summer drought throughout the 4500-km2 Fish Creek watershed, which is set entirely on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. The hydrologic response of streams in this region to drought conditions is not well understood, but likely varies by stream size, upstream lake extent, and geologic setting. We used a physically based model, Water Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) to simulate river discharge, surface runoff, active layer depth, soil temperatures, water levels, groundwater levels, groundwater flow, and snow distribution. We found that 7-day low flows were strongly affected by scenarios of drought or wet conditions. The 10-year-period scenarios were generated by selecting dry or wet years from a reanalysis dataset. Starting conditions for the simulations were based on a control run with average atmospheric conditions. Connectivity of lakes with better feeding conditions for fish significantly decreased in the scenarios of both summer and winter drought. The overall memory of the hydrologic network seems to be on the order of two to three years, based on the time to reach equilibrium hydrological conditions. This suggests that lake level fluctuation and water harvest could have a long-term effect on the connectivity of lakes. Climate change could strongly affect this system, and increased future water use could add more pressure on fish populations. Snowmelt is a major component of the water balance in a typical Arctic watershed and fish tend to migrate to their summer feeding lakes during the spring. Mid-summer periods without significant rainfall prove most limiting on fish movement, and during this time headwater lakes supply the majority of streamflow and are often the habitat destination for foraging fish. Models that predict connectivity of these lakes to downstream networks during low-flow conditions will help identify where lake water extraction for winter water supply should be managed more conservatively. A better understanding of how these responses vary in this watershed will help guide management of fish habitat and lake water extraction in the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska (NPR-A), where the Fish Creek watershed is located.

Global and Regional Impacts of HONO on the Chemical Composition of Clouds and Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshorbany, Y. F.; Crutzen, P. J.; Steil, B.; Pozzer, A.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.

2014-01-01

Recently, realistic simulation of nitrous acid (HONO) based on the HONO/NO(sub x) ratio of 0.02 was found to have a significant impact on the global budgets of HO(sub x) (OH + HO2) and gas phase oxidation products in polluted regions, especially in winter when other photolytic sources are of minor importance. It has been reported that chemistry-transport models underestimate sulphate concentrations, mostly during winter. Here we show that simulating realistic HONO levels can significantly enhance aerosol sulphate (S(VI)) due to the increased formation of H2SO4. Even though in-cloud aqueous phase oxidation of dissolved SO2 (S(IV)) is the main source of S(VI), it appears that HONO related enhancement of H2O2 does not significantly affect sulphate because of the predominantly S(IV) limited conditions, except over eastern Asia. Nitrate is also increased via enhanced gaseous HNO3 formation and N2O5 hydrolysis on aerosol particles. Ammonium nitrate is enhanced in ammonia-rich regions but not under ammonia-limited conditions. Furthermore, particle number concentrations are also higher, accompanied by the transfer from hydrophobic to hydrophilic aerosol modes. This implies a significant impact on the particle lifetime and cloud nucleating properties. The HONO induced enhancements of all species studied are relatively strong in winter though negligible in summer. Simulating realistic HONO levels is found to improve the model measurement agreement of sulphate aerosols, most apparent over the US. Our results underscore the importance of HONO for the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and corroborate the central role of cloud chemical processing in S(IV) formation.

Apparatus for precise regulation and chilling of water temperatures in laboratory studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burger, C.; ,

1991-01-01

Laboratory simulation of water temperature regimes that occur in subarctic rivers through winter necessitates the ability to maintain near-freezing conditions. A heat-exchangeing apparatus is described that provided a convenient means of simulating the range of temperatures (0.5-12 degrees C) that incubating eggs of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) typically experience in south-central Alaska watersheds. The system was reliable, easily maintained precise temperatures at our coldest test levels, and was used over several years with few mechanical complications.

Comparisons of observed seasonal climate features with a winter and summer numerical simulation produced with the GLAS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halem, M.; Shukla, J.; Mintz, Y.; Wu, M. L.; Godbole, R.; Herman, G.; Sud, Y.

1979-01-01

Results are presented from numerical simulations performed with the general circulation model (GCM) for winter and summer. The monthly mean simulated fields for each integration are compared with observed geographical distributions and zonal averages. In general, the simulated sea level pressure and upper level geopotential height field agree well with the observations. Well simulated features are the winter Aleutian and Icelandic lows, the summer southwestern U.S. low, the summer and winter oceanic subtropical highs in both hemispheres, and the summer upper level Tibetan high and Atlantic ridge. The surface and upper air wind fields in the low latitudes are in good agreement with the observations. The geographical distirbutions of the Earth-atmosphere radiation balance and of the precipitation rates over the oceans are well simulated, but not all of the intensities of these features are correct. Other comparisons are shown for precipitation along the ITCZ, rediation balance, zonally averaged temperatures and zonal winds, and poleward transports of momentum and sensible heat.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chavas, Daniel R.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.

Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to induce significant climate change over the next century and beyond, but the impacts on society remain highly uncertain. This work examines potential climate change impacts on the productivity of five major crops in northeastern China: canola, corn, potato, rice, and winter wheat. In addition to determining domain-wide trends, the objective is to identify vulnerable and emergent regions under future climate conditions, defined as having a greater than 10% decrease and increase in productivity, respectively. Data from the ICTP RegCM3 regional climate model for baseline (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) periods under A2 scenariomore » conditions are used as input in the EPIC agro-ecosystem simulation model in the domain [30ºN, 108ºE] to [42ºN, 123ºE]. Simulations are performed with and without the enhanced CO2 fertilization effect. Results indicate that aggregate potential productivity (i.e. if the crop is grown everywhere) increases 6.5% for rice, 8.3% for canola, 18.6% for corn, 22.9% for potato, and 24.9% for winter wheat, although with significant spatial variability for each crop. However, absent the enhanced CO2 fertilization effect, potential productivity declines in all cases ranging from 2.5-12%. Interannual yield variability remains constant or declines in all cases except rice. Climate variables are found to be more significant drivers of simulated yield changes than changes in soil properties, except in the case of potato production in the northwest where the effects of wind erosion are more significant. Overall, in the future period corn and winter wheat benefit significantly in the North China Plain, rice remains dominant in the southeast and emerges in the northeast, potato and corn yields become viable in the northwest, and potato yields suffer in the southwest with no other crop emerging as a clear beneficiary from among those simulated in this study.« less

Research Study in the Cost of Housing, Volume 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New York State Div. of Housing and Community Renewal, Albany.

The results of a study based on experiments conducted in multistory fireproof structures of public housing projects, and in a mock-up simulating all conditions of a fireproof structure, are reported. The findings are based on tests conducted during several winter seasons, none of which deviated markedly from the norm in New York City. The…

Lighting Condition Analysis for Mars' Moon Phobos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Zu Qun; de Carufel, Guy; Crues, Edwin Z.; Bielski, Paul

2016-01-01

This study used high fidelity computer simulation to investigate the lighting conditions, specifically the solar radiation flux over the surface, on Phobos. Ephemeris data from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) DE405 model was used to model the state of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and Mars. An occultation model was developed to simulate Phobos' self-shadowing and its solar eclipses by Mars. The propagated Phobos state was compared with data from JPL's Horizon system to ensure the accuracy of the result. Results for Phobos lighting conditions over one Martian year are presented, which include the duration of solar eclipses, average solar radiation intensity, surface exposure time, and radiant exposure for both sun tracking and fixed solar arrays. The results show that: Phobos' solar eclipse time varies throughout the Martian year, with longer eclipse durations during the Martian northern spring and fall seasons and no eclipses during the Martian northern summer and winter seasons; solar radiation intensity is close to minimum in late spring and close to maximum in late fall; exposure time per orbit is relatively constant over the surface during the spring and fall but varies with latitude during the summer and winter; and Sun tracking solar arrays generate more energy than a fixed solar array. A usage example of the result is also present in this paper to demonstrate the utility.

Relations between winter precipitation and atmospheric circulation simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Dettinger, M.D.

1995-01-01

General circulation model (GCM) simulations of atmospheric circulation are more reliable than GCM simulations of temperature and precipitation. In this study, temporal correlations between 700 hPa height anomalies simulated winter precipitation at eight locations in the conterminous United States are compared with corresponding correlations in observations. The objectives are to 1) characterize the relations between atmospheric circulation and winter precipitation simulated by the GFDL, GCM for selected locations in the conterminous USA, ii) determine whether these relations are similar to those found in observations of the actual climate system, and iii) determine if GFDL-simulated precipitation is forced by the same circulation patterns as in the real atmosphere. -from Authors

Assessment of winter air pollution episodes using long-range transport modeling in Hangzhou, China, during World Internet Conference, 2015.

PubMed

Ni, Zhi-Zhen; Luo, Kun; Zhang, Jun-Xi; Feng, Rui; Zheng, He-Xin; Zhu, Hao-Ran; Wang, Jing-Fan; Fan, Jian-Ren; Gao, Xiang; Cen, Ke-Fa

2018-05-01

A winter air pollution episode was observed in Hangzhou, South China, during the Second World Internet Conference, 2015. To study the pollution characteristics and underlying causes, the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model was used to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution of the pollution episode from December 8 to 19, 2015. In addition to scenario simulations, analysis of the atmospheric trajectory and synoptic weather conditions were also performed. The results demonstrated that control measures implemented during the week preceding the conference reduced the fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution level to some extent, with a decline in the total PM 2.5 concentration in Hangzhou of 15% (7%-25% daily). Pollutant long-range transport, which occurred due to a southward intrusion of strong cold air driven by the Siberia High, led to severe pollution in Hangzhou on December 15, 2015, accounting for 85% of the PM 2.5 concentration. This study provides new insights into the challenge of winter pollution prevention in Hangzhou. For adequate pollution prevention, more regional collaborations should be fostered when creating policies for northern China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Arctic Stratospheric Temperature In The Winters 1999/2000 and 2000/2001: A Quantitative Assessment and Microphysical Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buss, S.; Wernli, H.; Peter, T.; Kivi, R.; Bui, T. P.; Kleinböhl, A.; Schiller, C.

Stratospheric winter temperatures play a key role in the chain of microphysical and chemical processes that lead to the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), chlorine activation and eventually to stratospheric ozone depletion. Here the tempera- ture conditions during the Arctic winters 1999/2000 and 2000/2001 are quantitatively investigated using observed profiles of water vapour and nitric acid, and tempera- tures from high-resolution radiosondes and aircraft observations, global ECMWF and UKMO analyses and mesoscale model simulations over Scandinavia and Greenland. The ECMWF model resolves parts of the gravity wave activity and generally agrees well with the observations. However, for the very cold temperatures near the ice frost point the ECMWF analyses have a warm bias of 1-6 K compared to radiosondes. For the mesoscale model HRM, this bias is generally reduced due to a more accurate rep- resentation of gravity waves. Quantitative estimates of the impact of the mesoscale temperature perturbations indicates that over Scandinavia and Greenland the wave- induced stratospheric cooling (as simulated by the HRM) affects only moderately the estimated chlorine activation and homogeneous NAT particle formation, but strongly enhances the potential for ice formation.

Seasonal and interannual cross-shelf transport over the Texas and Louisiana continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thyng, Kristen M.; Hetland, Robert D.

2018-05-01

Numerical drifters are tracked in a hydrodynamic simulation of circulation over the Texas-Louisiana shelf to analyze patterns in cross-shelf transport of materials. While the important forcing mechanisms in the region (wind, river, and deep eddies) and associated flow patterns are known, the resultant material transport is less well understood. The primary metric used in the calculations is the percent of drifters released within a region that cross the 100 m isobath. Results of the analysis indicate that, averaged over the eleven years of the simulation, there are two regions on the shelf - over the Texas shelf during winter, and over the Louisiana shelf in summer - with increased seasonal probability for offshore transport. Among the two other distinct regions, the big bend region in Texas has increased probability for onshore transport, and the Mississippi Delta region has an increase in offshore transport, for both seasons. Some of these regions of offshore transport have marked interannual variability. This interannual variability is correlated to interannual changes in forcing conditions. Winter transport off of the Texas shelf is correlated with winter mean wind direction, with more northerly winds enhancing offshore transport; summer transport off the Louisiana shelf is correlated with Mississippi River discharge.

Human norovirus RNA persists in seawater under simulated winter conditions but does not bioaccumulate efficiently in Pacific Oysters (Crassostrea gigas).

PubMed

Dancer, D; Rangdale, R E; Lowther, J A; Lees, D N

2010-11-01

Norovirus (NoV) is the principal agent of bivalve molluscan shellfish-associated gastroenteric illness worldwide. Currently, noncultivable human NoVs can be detected in bivalve molluscan shellfish by using molecular methods such as real-time reverse transcription PCR assays (qRT-PCR). In addition to infectious viruses, this methodology may also detect noninfectious NoV, including fragments of the NoV genome. This study addresses, in part, the implications of qRT-PCR results for the detection of NoV in shellfish in the absence of an infectivity assay. To evaluate environmental persistence, the stability of a short fragment of the NoV genome, spanning the qRT-PCR target in the open reading frame 1/2 junction, was assessed in seawater under artificial environmental conditions simulating winter in the United Kingdom (1 mW/cm² UV irradiation, 8°C) during a 4-week period. Detectable RNA levels decreased exponentially (T₉₀ of approximately 141 h); however, sequences were still detectable for up to 2 weeks. The ability of Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas) to bioaccumulate NoV particles (from human feces) and RNA fragments was also compared using qRT-PCR. Oysters exposed to NoV particles subsequently were positive for NoV by qRT-PCR at levels several orders of magnitude in excess of the theoretical limit of detection, whereas oysters exposed to similar quantities of NoV RNA were either negative or positive at significantly lower levels. Therefore, although noninfectious fragments of NoV RNA may persist in the environment under winter conditions, this type of material will not be efficiently bioaccumulated by Pacific oysters and should not significantly contribute to positive qRT-PCR results.

A Statistical Comparison of PSC Model Simulations and POAM Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strawa, A. W.; Drdla, K.; Fromm, M.; Bokarius, K.; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A better knowledge of PSC composition and formation mechanisms is important to better understand and predict stratospheric ozone depletion. Several past studies have attempted to compare modeling results with satellite observations. These comparisons have concentrated on case studies. In this paper we adopt a statistical approach. POAM PSC observations from several Arctic winters are categorized into Type Ia and Ib PSCs using a technique based on Strawa et al. The discrimination technique has been modified to employ the wavelengths dependence of the extinction signal at all wavelengths rather than only at 603 and 10 18 nm. Winter-long simulations for the 1999-2000 Arctic winter have been made using the IMPACT model. These simulations have been constrained by aircraft observations made during the SOLVE/THESEO 2000 campaign. A complete set of winter-long simulations was run for several different microphysical and PSC formation scenarios. The simulations give us perfect knowledge of PSC type (Ia, Ib, or II), composition, especially condensed phase HNO3 which is important for denitrification, and condensed phase H2O. Comparisons are made between the simulation and observation of PSC extinction at 1018 rim versus wavelength dependence, winter-long percentages of Ia and Ib occurrence, and temporal and altitude trends of the PSCs. These comparisons allow us to comment on how realistic some modeling scenarios are.

Simulating crop growth with Expert-N-GECROS under different site conditions in Southwest Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poyda, Arne; Ingwersen, Joachim; Demyan, Scott; Gayler, Sebastian; Streck, Thilo

2016-04-01

When feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere are investigated by Atmosphere-Land surface-Crop-Models (ALCM) it is fundamental to accurately simulate crop growth dynamics as plants directly influence the energy partitioning at the plant-atmosphere interface. To study both the response and the effect of intensive agricultural crop production systems on regional climate change in Southwest Germany, the crop growth model GECROS (YIN & VAN LAAR, 2005) was calibrated based on multi-year field data from typical crop rotations in the Kraichgau and Swabian Alb regions. Additionally, the SOC (soil organic carbon) model DAISY (MÜLLER et al., 1998) was implemented in the Expert-N model tool (ENGEL & PRIESACK, 1993) and combined with GECROS. The model was calibrated based on a set of plant (BBCH, LAI, plant height, aboveground biomass, N content of biomass) and weather data for the years 2010 - 2013 and validated with the data of 2014. As GECROS adjusts the root-shoot partitioning in response to external conditions (water, nitrogen, CO2), it is suitable to simulate crop growth dynamics under changing climate conditions and potentially more frequent stress situations. As C and N pools and turnover rates in soil as well as preceding crop effects were expected to considerably influence crop growth, the model was run in a multi-year, dynamic way. Crop residues and soil mineral N (nitrate, ammonium) available for the subsequent crop were accounted for. The model simulates growth dynamics of winter wheat, winter rape, silage maize and summer barley at the Kraichgau and Swabian Alb sites well. The Expert-N-GECROS model is currently parameterized for crops with potentially increasing shares in future crop rotations. First results will be shown.

Ensembles modeling approach to study Climate Change impacts on Wheat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Mukhtar; Claudio, Stöckle O.; Nelson, Roger; Higgins, Stewart

2017-04-01

Simulations of crop yield under climate variability are subject to uncertainties, and quantification of such uncertainties is essential for effective use of projected results in adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study we evaluated the uncertainties related to crop-climate models using five crop growth simulation models (CropSyst, APSIM, DSSAT, STICS and EPIC) and 14 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP) of atmospheric CO2 (4.5 and 8.5 W m-2) in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA. The aim was to assess how different process-based crop models could be used accurately for estimation of winter wheat growth, development and yield. Firstly, all models were calibrated for high rainfall, medium rainfall, low rainfall and irrigated sites in the PNW using 1979-2010 as the baseline period. Response variables were related to farm management and soil properties, and included crop phenology, leaf area index (LAI), biomass and grain yield of winter wheat. All five models were run from 2000 to 2100 using the 14 GCMs and 2 RCPs to evaluate the effect of future climate (rainfall, temperature and CO2) on winter wheat phenology, LAI, biomass, grain yield and harvest index. Simulated time to flowering and maturity was reduced in all models except EPIC with some level of uncertainty. All models generally predicted an increase in biomass and grain yield under elevated CO2 but this effect was more prominent under rainfed conditions than irrigation. However, there was uncertainty in the simulation of crop phenology, biomass and grain yield under 14 GCMs during three prediction periods (2030, 2050 and 2070). We concluded that to improve accuracy and consistency in simulating wheat growth dynamics and yield under a changing climate, a multimodel ensemble approach should be used.

[Adaptability of APSIM model in Southwestern China: A case study of winter wheat in Chongqing City].

PubMed

Dai, Tong; Wang, Jing; He, Di; Zhang, Jian-ping; Wang, Na

2015-04-01

Field experimental data of winter wheat and parallel daily meteorological data at four typical stations in Chongqing City were used to calibrate and validate APSIM-wheat model and determine the genetic parameters for 12 varieties of winter wheat. The results showed that there was a good agreement between the simulated and observed growth periods from sowing to emergence, flowering and maturity of wheat. Root mean squared errors (RMSEs) between simulated and observed emergence, flowering and maturity were 0-3, 1-8, and 0-8 d, respectively. Normalized root mean squared errors (NRMSEs) between simulated and observed above-ground biomass for 12 study varieties were less than 30%. NRMSE between simulated and observed yields for 10 varieties out of 12 study varieties were less than 30%. APSIM-wheat model performed well in simulating phenology, aboveground biomass and yield of winter wheat in Chongqing City, which could provide a foundational support for assessing the impact of climate change on wheat production in the study area based on the model.

Tracking the delayed response of the northern winter stratosphere to ENSO using multi reanalyses and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Rongcai; Rao, Jian; Wu, Guoxiong; Cai, Ming

2017-05-01

The concurrent effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the northern winter stratosphere have been widely recognized; however, the delayed effects of ENSO in the next winter after mature ENSO have yet to be confirmed in multi reanalyses and model simulations. This study uses three reanalysis datasets, a long-term fully coupled model simulation, and a high-top general circulation model to examine ENSO's delayed effects in the stratosphere. The warm-minus-cold composite analyses consistently showed that, except those quick-decaying quasi-biennial ENSO events that reverse signs during July-August-September (JAS) in their decay years, ENSO events particularly those quasi-quadrennial (QQ) that persist through JAS, always have a significant effect on the extratropical stratosphere in both the concurrent winter and the next winter following mature ENSO. During the concurrent winter, the QQ ENSO-induced Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern corresponds to an anomalous wavenumber-1 from the upper troposphere to the stratosphere, which acts to intensify/weaken the climatological wave pattern during warm/cold ENSO. Associated with the zonally quasi-homogeneous tropical forcing in spring of the QQ ENSO decay years, there appear persistent and zonally quasi-homogeneous temperature anomalies in the midlatitudes from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere until summer. With the reduction in ENSO forcing and the PNA responses in the following winter, an anomalous wavenumber-2 prevails in the extratropics. Although the anomalous wave flux divergence in the upper stratospheric layer is still dominated by wavenumber-1, it is mainly caused by wavenumber-2 in the lower stratosphere. However, the wavenumber-2 activity in the next winter is always underestimated in the model simulations, and wavenumber-1 activity dominates in both winters.

Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupp, T. Scott; Olson, Mark; Adams, Layne G.; Dale, Bruce W.; Joly, Kyle; Henkelman, Jonathan; Collins, William B.; Starfield, Anthony M.

2006-01-01

Caribou are an integral component of high‐latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long‐term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency, extent, and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e., less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat, relative to that currently available, in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5‐fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce–lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly, simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure, compared to that which currently exists, with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics.

Undernutrition and serum and urinary urea nitrogen of white-tailed deer during winter

USGS Publications Warehouse

DelGiudice, G.D.; Mech, L.D.; Seal, U.S.

1994-01-01

Direct, practical means of assessing undernutrition in deer (Odocoileus spp.) and other ungulates during winter are needed in areas of research and management. We examined the relationship between mass loss and serum urea nitrogen (SUN) and urinary urea nitrogen:creatinine (U:C) in captive white-tailed deer (O. virginianus). During 4 February-5 May 1988, we maintained 7 adult white-tailed deer on various feeding regimes to simulate natural nutritional restriction during winter. Mass loss was greater (P = 0.037) in deer (17.0-32.2%) fed restricted amounts of a low protein low energy diet versus control deer (7.0-17.4%) fed the same diet ad libitum. Serum triiodothyronine (T3) concentrations did not differ (P = 0.191) between groups, but declined (P = 0.001) as nutrition declined. Slopes of percent mass lossSUN and urinary U:C relationships were positive (P = 0.008 and 0.055) in 7 and 6 deer, respectively. Mean U:C was directly related (r2 = 0.52, P = 0.040) to mean cumulative mass loss, whereas mean SUN was not (r2 = 0.29, P = 0.125). Data presented support the potential of urinary U:C as an index of winter nutritional condition of white-tailed deer; however, additional research is required to provide a complete understanding of this index's utility under field conditions.

Laboratory testing of a building envelope segment based on cellular concrete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fořt, Jan; Pavlík, Zbyšek; Černý, Robert

2016-07-01

Hygrothermal performance of a building envelope based on cellular concrete blocks is studied in the paper. Simultaneously, the strain fields induced by the heat and moisture changes are monitored. The studied wall is exposed to the climatic load corresponding to the winter climatic conditions of the moderate year for Prague. The winter climatic exposure is chosen in order to simulate the critical conditions of the building structure from the point of view of material performance and temperature and humidity loading. The evaluation of hygrothermal performance of a researched wall is done on the basis of relative humidity and temperature profiles measured along the cross section of the cellular concrete blocks. Strain gauges are fixed on the wall surface in expected orientation of the blocks expansion. The obtained results show a good hygrothermal function of the analyzed cellular concrete wall and its insignificant strain.

Effect of residential air-to-air heat and moisture exchangers on indoor humidity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barringer, C.G.; McGugan, C.A.

1989-01-01

A project was undertaken to develop guidelines for the selection of residential heat and moisture recovery ventilation systems (HRVs) in order to maintain an acceptable indoor humidity for various climatic conditions. These guidelines were developed from reviews on ventilation requirements, HRV performance specifications, and from computer modeling. Space conditions within three house/occupancy models for several types of HRV were simulated for three climatic conditions (Lake Charles, LA; Seattle, WA; and Winnipeg, MB) in order to determine the impact of the HRVs on indoor relative humidity and space-conditioning loads. Results show that when reduction of cooling cost is the main consideration,more » exchangers with moisture recovery are preferable to sensible HRVs. For reduction of heating costs, moisture recovery should be done for ventilation rates greater than about 15 L/s and average winter temperatures less than about (minus) 10{degrees}C if internal moisture generation rates are low. For houses with higher ventilation rates and colder average winter temperatures, exchangers with moisture recovery should be used.« less

Dynamical mechanisms of Arctic amplification.

PubMed

Dethloff, Klaus; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Rinke, Annette; Klinghammer, Pia

2018-05-12

The Arctic has become a hot spot of climate change, but the nonlinear interactions between regional and global scales in the coupled climate system responsible for Arctic amplification are not well understood and insufficiently described in climate models. Here, we compare reanalysis data with model simulations for low and high Arctic sea ice conditions to identify model biases with respect to atmospheric Arctic-mid-latitude linkages. We show that an appropriate description of Arctic sea ice forcing is able to reproduce the observed winter cooling in mid-latitudes as result of improved tropospheric-stratospheric planetary wave propagation triggering a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation in late winter. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Ozone photochemistry in an oil and natural gas extraction region during winter: simulations of a snow-free season in the Uintah Basin, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, P. M.; Young, C. J.; Aikin, K.; deGouw, J.; Dubé, W. P.; Geiger, F.; Gilman, J.; Helmig, D.; Holloway, J. S.; Kercher, J.; Lerner, B.; Martin, R.; McLaren, R.; Parrish, D. D.; Peischl, J.; Roberts, J. M.; Ryerson, T. B.; Thornton, J.; Warneke, C.; Williams, E. J.; Brown, S. S.

2013-09-01

The Uintah Basin in northeastern Utah, a region of intense oil and gas extraction, experienced ozone (O3) concentrations above levels harmful to human health for multiple days during the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. These wintertime O3 pollution episodes occur during cold, stable periods when the ground is snow-covered, and have been linked to emissions from the oil and gas extraction process. The Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS) was a field intensive in early 2012, whose goal was to address current uncertainties in the chemical and physical processes that drive wintertime O3 production in regions of oil and gas development. Although elevated O3 concentrations were not observed during the winter of 2011-2012, the comprehensive set of observations tests our understanding of O3 photochemistry in this unusual emissions environment. A box model, constrained to the observations and using the near-explicit Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) v3.2 chemistry scheme, has been used to investigate the sensitivities of O3 production during UBWOS 2012. Simulations identify the O3 production photochemistry to be highly radical limited (with a radical production rate significantly smaller than the NOx emission rate). Production of OH from O3 photolysis (through reaction of O(1D) with water vapor) contributed only 170 pptv day-1, 8% of the total primary radical source on average (primary radicals being those produced from non-radical precursors). Other radical sources, including the photolysis of formaldehyde (HCHO, 52%), nitrous acid (HONO, 26%), and nitryl chloride (ClNO2, 13%) were larger. O3 production was also found to be highly sensitive to aromatic volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations, due to radical amplification reactions in the oxidation scheme of these species. Radical production was shown to be small in comparison to the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), such that NOx acted as the primary radical sink. Consequently, the system was highly VOC sensitive, despite the much larger mixing ratio of total non-methane hydrocarbons (230 ppbv (2080 ppbC), 6 week average) relative to NOx (5.6 ppbv average). However, the importance of radical sources which are themselves derived from NOx emissions and chemistry, such as ClNO2 and HONO, make the response of the system to changes in NOx emissions uncertain. Model simulations attempting to reproduce conditions expected during snow-covered cold-pool conditions show a significant increase in O3 production, although calculated concentrations do not achieve the highest seen during the 2010-2011 O3 pollution events in the Uintah Basin. These box model simulations provide useful insight into the chemistry controlling winter O3 production in regions of oil and gas extraction.

Computing the biomass potentials for maize and two alternative energy crops, triticale and cup plant (Silphium perfoliatum L.), with the crop model BioSTAR in the region of Hannover (Germany).

PubMed

Bauböck, Roland; Karpenstein-Machan, Marianne; Kappas, Martin

2014-01-01

Lower Saxony (Germany) has the highest installed electric capacity from biogas in Germany. Most of this electricity is generated with maize. Reasons for this are the high yields and the economic incentive. In parts of Lower Saxony, an expansion of maize cultivation has led to ecological problems and a negative image of bioenergy as such. Winter triticale and cup plant have both shown their suitability as alternative energy crops for biogas production and could help to reduce maize cultivation. The model Biomass Simulation Tool for Agricultural Resources (BioSTAR) has been validated with observed yield data from the region of Hannover for the cultures maize and winter wheat. Predicted yields for the cultures show satisfactory error values of 9.36% (maize) and 11.5% (winter wheat). Correlations with observed data are significant ( P  < 0.01) with R  = 0.75 for maize and 0.6 for winter wheat. Biomass potential calculations for triticale and cup plant have shown both crops to be high yielding and a promising alternative to maize in the region of Hanover and other places in Lower Saxony. The model BioSTAR simulated yields for maize and winter wheat in the region of Hannover at a good overall level of accuracy (combined error 10.4%). Due to input data aggregation, individual years show high errors though (up to 30%). Nevertheless, the BioSTAR crop model has proven to be a functioning tool for the prediction of agricultural biomass potentials under varying environmental and crop management frame conditions.

Representing winter wheat in the Community Land Model (version 4.5)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Yaqiong; Williams, Ian N.; Bagley, Justin E.

Winter wheat is a staple crop for global food security, and is the dominant vegetation cover for a significant fraction of Earth's croplands. As such, it plays an important role in carbon cycling and land–atmosphere interactions in these key regions. Accurate simulation of winter wheat growth is not only crucial for future yield prediction under a changing climate, but also for accurately predicting the energy and water cycles for winter wheat dominated regions. We modified the winter wheat model in the Community Land Model (CLM) to better simulate winter wheat leaf area index, latent heat flux, net ecosystem exchange ofmore » CO 2, and grain yield. These included schemes to represent vernalization as well as frost tolerance and damage. We calibrated three key parameters (minimum planting temperature, maximum crop growth days, and initial value of leaf carbon allocation coefficient) and modified the grain carbon allocation algorithm for simulations at the US Southern Great Plains ARM site (US-ARM), and validated the model performance at eight additional sites across North America. We found that the new winter wheat model improved the prediction of monthly variation in leaf area index, reduced latent heat flux, and net ecosystem exchange root mean square error (RMSE) by 41 and 35 % during the spring growing season. The model accurately simulated the interannual variation in yield at the US-ARM site, but underestimated yield at sites and in regions (northwestern and southeastern US) with historically greater yields by 35 %.« less

Representing winter wheat in the Community Land Model (version 4.5)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Yaqiong; Williams, Ian N.; Bagley, Justin E.; Torn, Margaret S.; Kueppers, Lara M.

2017-05-01

Winter wheat is a staple crop for global food security, and is the dominant vegetation cover for a significant fraction of Earth's croplands. As such, it plays an important role in carbon cycling and land-atmosphere interactions in these key regions. Accurate simulation of winter wheat growth is not only crucial for future yield prediction under a changing climate, but also for accurately predicting the energy and water cycles for winter wheat dominated regions. We modified the winter wheat model in the Community Land Model (CLM) to better simulate winter wheat leaf area index, latent heat flux, net ecosystem exchange of CO2, and grain yield. These included schemes to represent vernalization as well as frost tolerance and damage. We calibrated three key parameters (minimum planting temperature, maximum crop growth days, and initial value of leaf carbon allocation coefficient) and modified the grain carbon allocation algorithm for simulations at the US Southern Great Plains ARM site (US-ARM), and validated the model performance at eight additional sites across North America. We found that the new winter wheat model improved the prediction of monthly variation in leaf area index, reduced latent heat flux, and net ecosystem exchange root mean square error (RMSE) by 41 and 35 % during the spring growing season. The model accurately simulated the interannual variation in yield at the US-ARM site, but underestimated yield at sites and in regions (northwestern and southeastern US) with historically greater yields by 35 %.

Representing winter wheat in the Community Land Model (version 4.5)

DOE PAGES

Lu, Yaqiong; Williams, Ian N.; Bagley, Justin E.; ...

2017-05-05

Winter wheat is a staple crop for global food security, and is the dominant vegetation cover for a significant fraction of Earth's croplands. As such, it plays an important role in carbon cycling and land–atmosphere interactions in these key regions. Accurate simulation of winter wheat growth is not only crucial for future yield prediction under a changing climate, but also for accurately predicting the energy and water cycles for winter wheat dominated regions. We modified the winter wheat model in the Community Land Model (CLM) to better simulate winter wheat leaf area index, latent heat flux, net ecosystem exchange ofmore » CO 2, and grain yield. These included schemes to represent vernalization as well as frost tolerance and damage. We calibrated three key parameters (minimum planting temperature, maximum crop growth days, and initial value of leaf carbon allocation coefficient) and modified the grain carbon allocation algorithm for simulations at the US Southern Great Plains ARM site (US-ARM), and validated the model performance at eight additional sites across North America. We found that the new winter wheat model improved the prediction of monthly variation in leaf area index, reduced latent heat flux, and net ecosystem exchange root mean square error (RMSE) by 41 and 35 % during the spring growing season. The model accurately simulated the interannual variation in yield at the US-ARM site, but underestimated yield at sites and in regions (northwestern and southeastern US) with historically greater yields by 35 %.« less

Integration of snow management practices into a detailed snow pack model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spandre, Pierre; Morin, Samuel; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Lejeune, Yves; François, Hugues; George-Marcelpoil, Emmanuelle

2016-04-01

The management of snow on ski slopes is a key socio-economic and environmental issue in mountain regions. Indeed the winter sports industry has become a very competitive global market although this economy remains particularly sensitive to weather and snow conditions. The understanding and implementation of snow management in detailed snowpack models is a major step towards a more realistic assessment of the evolution of snow conditions in ski resorts concerning past, present and future climate conditions. Here we describe in a detailed manner the integration of snow management processes (grooming, snowmaking) into the snowpack model Crocus (Spandre et al., Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., in press). The effect of the tiller is explicitly taken into account and its effects on snow properties (density, snow microstructure) are simulated in addition to the compaction induced by the weight of the grooming machine. The production of snow in Crocus is carried out with respect to specific rules and current meteorological conditions. Model configurations and results are described in detail through sensitivity tests of the model of all parameters related to snow management processes. In-situ observations were carried out in four resorts in the French Alps during the 2014-2015 winter season considering for each resort natural, groomed only and groomed plus snowmaking conditions. The model provides realistic simulations of the snowpack properties with respect to these observations. The main uncertainty pertains to the efficiency of the snowmaking process. The observed ratio between the mass of machine-made snow on ski slopes and the water mass used for production was found to be lower than was expected from the literature, in every resort. The model now referred to as "Crocus-Resort" has been proven to provide realistic simulations of snow conditions on ski slopes and may be used for further investigations. Spandre, P., S. Morin, M. Lafaysse, Y. Lejeune, H. François and E. George-Marcelpoil, Integration of snow management processes into a detailed snowpack model, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., in press.

A technigue exploitation about anti-slide tire polyploid on ice-snow road in winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiaojie, Qi; Qiang, Wang; Zhao, Yang; Yunlong, Wang; Guotian, Wang; Degang, Lv

2017-04-01

Present studies focus on improving anti-slide property of tyes on ice-snow road by changing material modification of tyre tread and designing groove. However, the basic reason causing starting slide, long braking distance, turning slide slip and so on of tyres used in winter is that tyre tread materials are unitary and homogenous rubber composite which can’t coordinate driving demands of tyres in winter under muti-work condition, and can’t exert their best property when starting, braking and sliding slip. In order to improve comprehensive anti-slide property of tyres, this paper discusses about changing structure, shape and distribution proportion among haploid materials of tyre tread rubber. Polyploid bubber tyre tread technique based on artificial neural network which is in favor of starting, braking and anti-slide slip is optimized and combined. Friction feature and anti-slide mechanism on ice-snow road of polyploid rubber tyre tread are studied using testing technique of low-temperature cabin and computer simulation. A set high anti-slide theories and realizing method systems of polyploid rubber composite formed from basic theory, models and technique method are developped which will be applied into solving anti-slide problem of winter tyres, provide theory instruction for studies on high anti-slide winter tyres, and promote development of application and usage safety of winter tyres.

[Ability of typical greenery shrubs of Beijing to adsorb and arrest PM2.5 ].

PubMed

Liang, Dan; Wang, Bin; Wang, Yun-qi; Zhang, Hui-lan; Yang, Song-nan; Li, Ang

2014-09-01

Four typical types of green shrubs of Beijing (Euonymus japonicus, Buxus microphylla, Berberis thunbergii cv. atropurpurea, Taxus cuspidate cv. nana) were selected to study their capacities in adsorbing and arresting PM2.5 using both field observations and air chamber simulations. Concurrently, in order to analyze the pollution characteristics of Beijing in winter and spring, the PM2.5 concentrations of December 2012 to May 2013 were collected. Experimental results showed that: From the gas chamber experiments, the ability to adsorb and arrest PM2.5 was in the order of Berberis thunbergii cv. atropurpurea > Buxus microphylla > Taxus cuspidate cv. nana > Euonymus japonicus, mainly due to the differences in leaf characteristics; Outside measurement results showed that the ability to adsorb and arrest PM2.5 was ranked as Buxus microphylla > Berberis thunbergii cv. atropurpurea > Taxus cuspidate cv. nana > Euonymus japonicus. Chamber simulation and outdoor observation showed that Buxus microphylla and Berberis thunbergii cv. atropurpurea had strong ability to adsorb and arrest PM2.5; Meanwhile, the slight differences between the chamber simulation and outdoor observation results might be related to plant structure. Compared to tree species, the planting condition of shrub species was loose, and it greened quickly; By analyzing the Beijing PM2.5 concentration values in winter and spring, it was found that the PM2.5 concentration was particularly high in the winter of Beijing, and evergreen shrubs maintained the ability to adsorb and arrest PM2.5.

Observations and modeling of San Diego beaches during El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doria, André; Guza, R. T.; O'Reilly, William C.; Yates, M. L.

2016-08-01

Subaerial sand levels were observed at five southern California beaches for 16 years, including notable El Niños in 1997-98 and 2009-10. An existing, empirical shoreline equilibrium model, driven with wave conditions estimated using a regional buoy network, simulates well the seasonal changes in subaerial beach width (e.g. the cross-shore location of the MSL contour) during non-El Niño years, similar to previous results with a 5-year time series lacking an El Niño winter. The existing model correctly identifies the 1997-98 El Niño winter conditions as more erosive than 2009-10, but overestimates shoreline erosion during both El Niños. The good skill of the existing equilibrium model in typical conditions does not necessarily extrapolate to extreme erosion on these beaches where a few meters thick sand layer often overlies more resistant layers. The modest over-prediction of the 2009-10 El Niño is reduced by gradually decreasing the model mobility of highly eroded shorelines (simulating cobbles, kelp wrack, shell hash, or other stabilizing layers). Over prediction during the more severe 1997-98 El Niño is corrected by stopping model erosion when resilient surfaces (identified with aerial imagery) are reached. The trained model provides a computationally simple (e.g. nonlinear first order differential equation) representation of the observed relationship between incident waves and shoreline change.

Constraining wintertime sources of inorganic chlorine over the northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haskins, J.; Jaegle, L.; Shah, V.; Lopez-Hilfiker, F.; Lee, B. H.; Campuzano Jost, P.; Schroder, J. C.; Day, D. A.; Fiddler, M. N.; Holloway, J. S.; Sullivan, A.; Veres, P. R.; Weber, R. J.; Dibb, J. E.; Brown, S. S.; Jimenez, J. L.; Thornton, J. A.

2017-12-01

Wintertime multiphase chlorine chemistry is thought to play a significant role in the regional distribution of oxidants, the lifetime of VOCs, and the transport of NOx downwind of urban sources. However, the sources and chemistry of reactive chlorine remain highly uncertain. During the WINTER 2015 aircraft campaign, the inorganic chlorine budget was dominated by HCl (g) and total particulate chloride, accounting for greater than 85% of the total chlorine budget within the boundary layer. The total concentration of inorganic chlorine compounds found over marine regions was 1014 pptv and 609 pptv over continental regions with variability found to be driven by changes in meteorological conditions, particle liquid water content, particle pH, and proximity to large anthropogenic sources. However, displacement of particle chloride was often not a large enough source to fully explain the concentrations of gas phase Cly compounds. We use the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model to simulate the emissions, gas-particle partitioning, and downwind transport and deposition of Cly during winter. Simulated concentrations of HCl, particle chloride, and other dominant Cly compounds are compared to measurements made during the WINTER aircraft campaign. The relative roles of Cly sources from sea-salt aerosol and anthropogenic sources such as power plants, biomass burning and road salt are explored.

Future projections of total snowfall and heavy snowfall in Japan simulated by large ensemble regional climate simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawase, H.; Sasaki, H.; Murata, A.; Nosaka, M.; Ito, R.; Dairaku, K.; Sasai, T.; Yamazaki, T.; Sugimoto, S.; Watanabe, S.; Fujita, M.; Kawazoe, S.; Okada, Y.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Takayabu, I.

2017-12-01

We performed large ensemble climate experiments to investigate future changes in extreme weather events using Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) with about 60 km grid spacing and Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model with 20 km grid spacing (NHRCM20). The global climate simulations are prescribed by the past and future sea surface temperature (SST). Two future climate simulations are conducted so that the global-mean surface air temperature rise 2 K and 4 K from the pre-industrial period. The non-warming simulations are also conducted by MRI-AGCM and NHRCM20. We focus on the future changes in snowfall in Japan. In winter, the Sea of Japan coast experiences heavy snowfall due to East Asian winter monsoon. The cold and dry air from the continent obtains abundant moisture from the warm Sea of Japan, causing enormous amount of snowfall especially in the mountainous area. The NHRCM20 showed winter total snowfall decreases in the most parts of Japan. In contrast, extremely heavy daily snowfall could increase at mountainous areas in the Central Japan and Northern parts of Japan when strong cold air outbreak occurs and the convergence zone appears over the Sea of Japan. The warmer Sea of Japan in the future climate could supply more moisture than that in the present climate, indicating that the cumulus convections could be enhanced around the convergence zone in the Sea of Japan. However, the horizontal resolution of 20 km is not enough to resolve Japan`s complex topography. Therefore, dynamical downscaling with 5 km grid spacing (NHRCM05) is also conducted using NHRCM20. The NHRCM05 does a better job simulating the regional boundary of snowfall and shows more detailed changes in future snowfall characteristics. The future changes in total and extremely heavy snowfall depend on the regions, elevations, and synoptic conditions around Japan.

A numerical study of the South China Sea Warm Current during winter monsoon relaxation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Cong; Ding, Yang; Bao, Xianwen; Bi, Congcong; Li, Ruixiang; Zhang, Cunjie; Shen, Biao; Wan, Kai

2018-03-01

Using a Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model, we investigated the dynamic mechanism of the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) during winter monsoon relaxation. The model reproduces the mean surface circulation of the NSCS during winter, while model-simulated subtidal currents generally capture its current pattern. The model shows that the current over the continental shelf is generally southwestward, under a strong winter monsoon condition, but a northeastward counter-wind current usually develops between 50-and 100-m isobaths, when the monsoon relaxes. Model experiments, focusing on the wind relaxation process, show that sea level is elevated in the northwestern South China Sea (SCS), related to the persistent northeasterly monsoon. Following wind relaxation, a high sea level band builds up along the mid-shelf, and a northeastward current develops, having an obvious vertical barotropic structure. Momentum balance analysis indicates that an along-shelf pressure gradient provides the initial driving force for the SCSWC during the first few days following wind relaxation. The SCSWC subsequently reaches a steady quasi-geostrophic balance in the cross-shelf direction, mainly linked to sea level adjustment over the shelf. Lagrangian particle tracking experiments show that both the southwestward coastal current and slope current contribute to the northeastward movement of the SCSWC during winter monsoon relaxation.

Assessing winter cover crop nutrient uptake efficiency using a water quality simulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, I.-Y.; Lee, S.; Sadeghi, A. M.; Beeson, P. C.; Hively, W. D.; McCarty, G. W.; Lang, M. W.

2013-11-01

Winter cover crops are an effective conservation management practice with potential to improve water quality. Throughout the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW), which is located in the Mid-Atlantic US, winter cover crop use has been emphasized and federal and state cost-share programs are available to farmers to subsidize the cost of winter cover crop establishment. The objective of this study was to assess the long-term effect of planting winter cover crops at the watershed scale and to identify critical source areas of high nitrate export. A physically-based watershed simulation model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was calibrated and validated using water quality monitoring data and satellite-based estimates of winter cover crop species performance to simulate hydrological processes and nutrient cycling over the period of 1991-2000. Multiple scenarios were developed to obtain baseline information on nitrate loading without winter cover crops planted and to investigate how nitrate loading could change with different winter cover crop planting scenarios, including different species, planting times, and implementation areas. The results indicate that winter cover crops had a negligible impact on water budget, but significantly reduced nitrate leaching to groundwater and delivery to the waterways. Without winter cover crops, annual nitrate loading was approximately 14 kg ha-1, but it decreased to 4.6-10.1 kg ha-1 with winter cover crops resulting in a reduction rate of 27-67% at the watershed scale. Rye was most effective, with a potential to reduce nitrate leaching by up to 93% with early planting at the field scale. Early planting of winter cover crops (~30 days of additional growing days) was crucial, as it lowered nitrate export by an additional ~2 kg ha-1 when compared to late planting scenarios. The effectiveness of cover cropping increased with increasing extent of winter cover crop implementation. Agricultural fields with well-drained soils and those that were more frequently used to grow corn had a higher potential for nitrate leaching and export to the waterways. This study supports the effective implement of winter cover crop programs, in part by helping to target critical pollution source areas for winter cover crop implementation.

The de-correlation of westerly winds and westerly-wind stress over the Southern Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Wei; Lu, Jian; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

2015-02-22

This paper investigates the changes of the Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) and Southern Ocean (SO) upwelling between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and preindustrial (PI) in the PMIP3/CMIP5 simulations, highlighting the role of the Antarctic sea ice in modulating the wind stress effect on the ocean. Particularly, a discrepancy may occur between the changes in SWW and westerly wind stress, caused primarily by an equatorward expansion of winter Antarctic sea ice that undermines the wind stress in driving the liquid ocean. Such discrepancy may reflect the LGM condition in reality, in view of that the model simulates this condition hasmore » most credible simulation of modern SWW and Antarctic sea ice. The effect of wind stress on the SO upwelling is further explored via the wind-induced Ekman pumping, which is reduced under the LGM condition in all models, in part by the sea-ice “capping” effect present in the models.« less

Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701-1850 based on documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Montávez Gómez, J. P.

2012-01-01

In this work, a reconstruction of climatic conditions in Andalusia (southern Iberian Peninsula) during the period 1701-1850, as well as an evaluation of its associated uncertainties, is presented. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of Tambora in 1815), at a time when any increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations was of minor importance. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. The reconstruction methodology is based on counting the number of extreme events in the past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the seasonal means of climate variables. This reconstruction methodology is tested within the pseudoreality of a high-resolution paleoclimate simulation performed with the regional climate model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. The results show that the reconstructions are influenced by the reference period chosen and the threshold values used to define extreme values. This creates uncertainties which are assessed within the context of climate simulation. An ensemble of reconstructions was obtained using two different reference periods (1885-1915 and 1960-1990) and two pairs of percentiles as threshold values (10-90 and 25-75). The results correspond to winter temperature, and winter, spring and autumn rainfall, and they are compared with simulations of the climate model for the considered period. The mean value of winter temperature for the period 1781-1850 was 10.6 ± 0.1 °C (11.0 °C for the reference period 1960-1990). The mean value of winter rainfall for the period 1701-1850 was 267 ± 18 mm (224 mm for 1960-1990). The mean values of spring and autumn rainfall were 164 ± 11 and 194 ± 16 mm (129 and 162 mm for 1960-1990, respectively). Comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790-1820 and 1960-1990 indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of dry and warm (wet and cold) winters was lower (higher) than during the reference period: temperatures were up to 0.5 °C lower than the 1960-1990 value, and rainfall was 4% higher.

Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701-1850 AD from documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Montávez Gómez, J. P.

2011-07-01

In this work, a reconstruction of climatic conditions in Andalusia (southern Iberia Peninsula) during the period 1701-1850, as well as an evaluation of its associated uncertainties, is presented. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in the solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of the Tambora in 1815), when the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations were of minor importance. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. The reconstruction methodology is based on accounting the number of extreme events in past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the seasonal means of climate variables. This reconstruction methodology is tested within the pseudoreality of a high-resolution paleoclimate simulation performed with the regional climate model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. Results show that the reconstructions are influenced by the reference period chosen and the threshold values used to define extreme values. This creates uncertainties which are assesed within the context of the climate simulation. An ensemble of reconstructions was obtained using two different reference periods and two pairs of percentiles as threshold values. Results correspond to winter temperature, and winter, spring, and autumn rainfall, and they are compared with simulations of the climate model for the considered period. The comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790-1820 and 1960-1990 periods indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of dry and warm (wet and cold) winters was lesser (higher) than during the reference period. In spring and autumn it was detected an increase (decrease) in the frequency of wet (dry) seasons. Future research challenges are outlined.

Investigating Added Value of Regional Climate Modeling in North American Winter Storm Track Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poan, E.; Gachon, P., Sr.; Laprise, R.; Aider, R.; Dueymes, G.

2017-12-01

This study describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into extratropical cyclone (EC) activity during winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate period (1981 - 2005) is firstly considered using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a reference, along with the European global reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERAI) and two CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) used to drive the Canadian RCM - version 5 (CRCM5) and the corresponding regional-scale simulations. While ERAI and GCM simulations show basic agreement with NARR in terms of climatological EC track patterns, detailed bias analyses show that, on the one hand, ERAI presents statistically significant positive biases in terms of EC genesis and therefore occurrence while their intensity is well captured. On the other hand, GCMs present large negative intensity biases in the overall NA domain and particularly over the eastern coast. In addition, storm occurrence from GCMs over the northwestern topographic regions is highly overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, all storm characteristics near areas with main relief and over regions with large water masses are significantly improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM-driven simulations, the added value from the CRCM5 is less prominent and systematic, except over western areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are located. Finally, time period near the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) is considered to analyze EC characteristic trends and changes relative to the current climate conditions, showing important modifications in storm activity for certain winter months, especially in term of intensity over the eastern coast.

Adjustment of spatio-temporal precipitation patterns in a high Alpine environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrnegger, Mathew; Senoner, Tobias; Nachtnebel, Hans-Peter

2018-01-01

This contribution presents a method for correcting the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation fields in a mountainous environment. The approach is applied within a flood forecasting model in the Upper Enns catchment in the Central Austrian Alps. Precipitation exhibits a large spatio-temporal variability in Alpine areas. Additionally the density of the monitoring network is low and measurements are subjected to major errors. This can lead to significant deficits in water balance estimation and stream flow simulations, e.g. for flood forecasting models. Therefore precipitation correction factors are frequently applied. For the presented study a multiplicative, stepwise linear correction model is implemented in the rainfall-runoff model COSERO to adjust the precipitation pattern as a function of elevation. To account for the local meteorological conditions, the correction model is derived for two elevation zones: (1) Valley floors to 2000 m a.s.l. and (2) above 2000 m a.s.l. to mountain peaks. Measurement errors also depend on the precipitation type, with higher magnitudes in winter months during snow fall. Therefore, additionally, separate correction factors for winter and summer months are estimated. Significant improvements in the runoff simulations could be achieved, not only in the long-term water balance simulation and the overall model performance, but also in the simulation of flood peaks.

Cold truths: how winter drives responses of terrestrial organisms to climate change.

PubMed

Williams, Caroline M; Henry, Hugh A L; Sinclair, Brent J

2015-02-01

Winter is a key driver of individual performance, community composition, and ecological interactions in terrestrial habitats. Although climate change research tends to focus on performance in the growing season, climate change is also modifying winter conditions rapidly. Changes to winter temperatures, the variability of winter conditions, and winter snow cover can interact to induce cold injury, alter energy and water balance, advance or retard phenology, and modify community interactions. Species vary in their susceptibility to these winter drivers, hampering efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. Existing frameworks for predicting the impacts of climate change do not incorporate the complexity of organismal responses to winter. Here, we synthesise organismal responses to winter climate change, and use this synthesis to build a framework to predict exposure and sensitivity to negative impacts. This framework can be used to estimate the vulnerability of species to winter climate change. We describe the importance of relationships between winter conditions and performance during the growing season in determining fitness, and demonstrate how summer and winter processes are linked. Incorporating winter into current models will require concerted effort from theoreticians and empiricists, and the expansion of current growing-season studies to incorporate winter. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Seasonal Snowpack Dynamics and Runoff in a Maritime Forested Basin, Niigata, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitaker, A. C.; Sugiyama, H.

2005-12-01

Seasonal snowpack dynamics are described through field measurements under contrasting canopy conditions for a mountainous catchment in the Japan Sea region. Microclimatic data, snow accumulation, albedo and lysimeter runoff is given through three complete winter seasons 2002-05 in: (1) mature cedar stand, (2) larch stand, and (3) regenerating cedar stand or opening. The accumulation and melt of seasonal snowpack strongly influences streamflow runoff during December to May, including winter base-flow, mid-winter melt, rain-on-snow, and diurnal peaks driven by radiation melt in spring. Lysimeter runoff at all sites is characterised by constant ground melt of 0.8-1.0 mm/day. Rapid response to mid-winter melt or rainfall shows that the snowpack remains in a ripe or near-ripe condition throughout the snowcover season. Hourly and daily lysimeter discharge was greatest during rain-on-snow with the majority of runoff due to rainfall passing through the snowpack as opposed to snowmelt. For both rain-on-snow and radiation melt events lysimeter discharge was generally greatest at the open site, although there were exceptions such as during interception melt events. During radiation melt instantaneous discharge was up to 4.0 times greater in the opening compared to the mature cedar, and 48-hour discharge was up to 2.5 times greater. Perhaps characteristic of maritime climates, forest interception melt is shown to be important in addition to sublimation in reducing snow accumulation beneath dense canopies. While sublimation represents a loss from the catchment water balance, interception melt percolates through the snowpack and contributes to soil moisture during the winter season. Strong differences in microclimate and snowpack albedo persisted between cedar, larch and open sites, and it is suggested further work is needed to account for this in hydrological simulation models.

Numerical Study of Winter Diurnal Convection Over the City of Krasnoyarsk: Effects of Non-freezing River, Undulating Fog and Steam Devils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hrebtov, M.; Hanjalić, K.

2017-06-01

We performed a numerical simulation of penetrative convection of an inversion-topped weakly stratified atmospheric boundary layer over urban terrain with a strong localized source of heat and moisture. With some simplifications, the case mimics the real environment of the Krasnoyarsk region in Russia where the non-freezing river Yenisei acts as a thermal and humidity source during winter, generating an undulating fog pattern along the river accompanied with scattered `steam devils'. An idealized full diurnal cycle was simulated using an unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) three-equation algebraic flux model and the novel buoyancy-accounting functions for treating the ground boundary conditions. The results show a significant effect of the river on the net temperature and moisture distribution. The localized heat and moisture source leads to strong horizontal convection and marked non-uniformity of humidity concentration in the air. An interplay of several distinct large-scale vortex systems leads to a wavy pattern of moisture plumes over the river. The simulations deal with rare natural phenomena and show the capability of the RANS turbulence closure to capture the main features of flow and scalar fields on an affordable, relatively coarse, computational grid.

Simulated field trip on ski area development

Treesearch

John J. Lindsay; Hubertus J. Mittmann

1979-01-01

Not too long ago winter sports facilities were small and simple. As more people participated in winter sports and technology advanced, the impact on the land in-creased not only from the standpoint of actual facilities needed for winter recreation but also from associated facilities. In many instances winter sports areas developed into full fledged tourist oriented...

The missing Northern European winter cooling response to Arctic sea ice loss

PubMed Central

Screen, James A.

2017-01-01

Reductions in Arctic sea ice may promote the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO−). It has been argued that NAO-related variability can be used an as analogue to predict the effects of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-latitude weather. As NAO− events are associated with colder winters over Northern Europe, a negatively shifted NAO has been proposed as a dynamical pathway for Arctic sea ice loss to cause Northern European cooling. This study uses large-ensemble atmospheric simulations with prescribed ocean surface conditions to examine how seasonal-scale NAO− events are affected by Arctic sea ice loss. Despite an intensification of NAO− events, reflected by more prevalent easterly flow, sea ice loss does not lead to Northern European winter cooling and daily cold extremes actually decrease. The dynamical cooling from the changed NAO is ‘missing', because it is offset (or exceeded) by a thermodynamical effect owing to advection of warmer air masses. PMID:28262679

Modeling winter ozone episodes near oil and natural gas fields in Wyoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yuling; Rappenglück, Bernhard; Pour-Biazar, Arastoo; Field, Robert A.; Soltis, Jeff

2017-04-01

Wintertime ozone episodes have been reported in the oil and natural gas (O&NG) producing fields in Uintah Basin, Utah and the Upper Green River Basin (UGRB) in Wyoming in recent years. High concentrations of ozone precursors facilitated by favorable meteorological conditions, including low wind and shallow boundary layer (BL), were found in these episodes, although the exact roles of these precursor species in different O&NG fields are to be determined. Meanwhile, snow cover is also found to play an important role in these winter ozone episodes as the cold snow covered surface enhances the inversion, further limits the BL and the high snow albedo greatly boosts photolysis reactions that are closely related to ozone chemistry. In this study, we utilize model simulation to explore the role of chemical compositions, in terms of different VOC groups and NOx, and that of the enhanced photolysis due to snow cover in the UGRB ozone episodes in the late winter of 2011.

Seasonal Influence of Nutrients on the Physiology and Behavior of Captive Canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, M.C.

1985-01-01

Captive canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) were maintained ad libitum on five diets during the winters of 1978-79 and 1979-80 to evaluate the effects of varying protein and energy levels on feed intake and condition. Diets were formulated to simulate either a natural diet high in invertebrates or one high in vegetation. Two diets low in protein and energy simulated stress diets. Feed intake during the 1979-80 winter, when diets varied the most, was 30% higher for canvasbacks fed the low energy (1543 kcal/kg) diet than for canvasbacks fed the high energy (3638 kcal/kg) diet. Body weight of males and females did not differ between groups fed different diets, but there were seasonal differences (P(O.05) for both sexes aggregated across diets. Feed intake and body weights were greatest in November and April and least in January and February. Canvasbacks lost weight and ate less during the most stressful periods despite ad libitum feed supplies. No differences could be detected in the behavior of captive canvasbacks as a result of the diets they received. Differences due to season and sex were observed for some behaviors. Inactivity increased (P(0.05) during the winter apparently as a mechanism to conserve energy. Overall, captive canvasbacks were able to maintain themselves during winter on diets with as little as 10% protein and 1543 kcal/kg provided adequate quantities of food were available. Availability of low energy food (e.g. clams) may be the limiting factor in regard to winter survival of wild canvasbacks. The distribution and abundance of canvasbacks in some wintering areas ultimately has been influenced by the quantity and probably the quality of available nutrients. Data from this study indicate that canvasbacks are unable to adjust intake rates to compensate for low energy foods and may subsequently store less fat or modify behavior and microclimate. However, decreased weight, feed intake, and activity of ducks fed ad libitum rations occurred in mid-winter irrespective of diet quality and appeared to be an endogenous component of their annual cycle which persists in captivity. These changes apparently have a selective advantage of increasing the probability of survival in ducks by decreasing energy expenditure during periods of winter stress.

Seasonal influence of nutrients on the physiology and behavior of captive canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, M.C.

1986-01-01

Captive canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) were maintained ad libitum on five diets during the winters of 1978-79 and 1979-80 to evaluate the effects of varying protein and energy levels on feed intake and condition. Diets were formulated to simulate either a natural diet high in invertebrates or one high in vegetation. Two diets low in protein and energy simulated stress diets. Feed intake during the 1979-80 winter, when diets varied the most, was 30% higher for canvasbacks fed the low energy (1543 kcal/kg) diet than for canvasbacks fed the high energy (3638 kcal/kg) diet. Body weight of males and females did not differ between groups fed different diets, but there were seasonal differences (P < 0.05) for both sexes aggregated across diets. Feed intake and body weights were greatest in November and April and least in January and February. Convasbacks lost weight and ate less during the most stressful periods despite ad libitum feed supplies. No differences could be detected in the behavior of captive canvasbacks as a result of the diets they received. Differences due to season and sex were observed for some behaviors. Inactivity increased (P < 0.05) during the winter apparently as a mechanism to conserve energy.Overall, captive canvasbacks were able to maintain themselves during winter on diets with as little as 10% protein and 1543 kcal/kg provided adequate quantities of food were available. Availability of low energy food (e.g. clams) may be the limiting factor in regard to winter survival of wild canvasbacks. The distribution and abundance of canvasbacks in some wintering areas ultimately has been influenced by the quantity and probably the quality of available nutrients.Data from this study indicate that canvasbacks are unable to adjust intake rates to compensate for low energy foods and may subsequently store less fat or modify behavior and microclimate. However, decreased weight, feed intake, and activity of ducks fed ad libitum rations occurred in mid-winter irrespective of diet quality and appeared to be an endogenous component of their annual cycle which persists in captivity. These changes apparently have a selective advantage of increasing the probability of survival in ducks by decreasing energy expenditure during periods of winter stress.

Diagnosis and Modeling of the Explosive Development of Winter Storms: Sensitivity to PBL Schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pradhan, Prabodha K.

2014-05-01

The correct representation of extreme windstorms in regional models is of great importance for impact studies of climate change. The Iberian Peninsula has recently witnessed major damage from winter extratropical intense cyclones like Klaus (January 2009), Xynthia (February 2010) and Gong (January 2013) which formed over the mid-Atlantic, experienced explosive intensification while travelling eastwards at lower latitudes than usual [Liberato et al. 2011; 2013]. In this paper the explosive development of these storms is simulated by the advanced mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF v 3.4.1), initialized with NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) data as initial and lateral boundary conditions (boundary conditions updated in every 3 hours intervals). The simulation experiments are conducted with two domains, a coarser (25km) and nested (8.333km), covering the entire North Atlantic and Iberian Peninsula region. The characteristics of these storms (e.g. wind speed, precipitation) are studied from WRF model and compared with multiple observations. In this context simulations with different Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes are performed. This approach aims at understanding which mechanisms favor the explosive intensification of these storms at a lower than usual latitudes, thus improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics (including small-scale processes) on controlling the life cycle of midlatitude extreme storms and contributing to the improvement in predictability and in our ability to forecast storms' impacts over Iberian Peninsula. Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010). References: Liberato M.L.R., J.G. Pinto, I.F. Trigo, R.M. Trigo (2011) Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France. Weather 66: 330-334 doi:10.1002/wea.755 Liberato M.L.R., J.G. Pinto, R.M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, I.F. Trigo (2013) Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the Subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2239-2251, doi:10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013

Warm winter, thin ice?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, Julienne C.; Schroder, David; Tsamados, Michel; Feltham, Daniel

2018-05-01

Winter 2016/2017 saw record warmth over the Arctic Ocean, leading to the least amount of freezing degree days north of 70° N since at least 1979. The impact of this warmth was evaluated using model simulations from the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) and CryoSat-2 thickness estimates from three different data providers. While CICE simulations show a broad region of anomalously thin ice in April 2017 relative to the 2011-2017 mean, analysis of three CryoSat-2 products show more limited regions with thin ice and do not always agree with each other, both in magnitude and direction of thickness anomalies. CICE is further used to diagnose feedback processes driving the observed anomalies, showing 11-13 cm reduced thermodynamic ice growth over the Arctic domain used in this study compared to the 2011-2017 mean, and dynamical contributions of +1 to +4 cm. Finally, CICE model simulations from 1985 to 2017 indicate the negative feedback relationship between ice growth and winter air temperatures may be starting to weaken, showing decreased winter ice growth since 2012, as winter air temperatures have increased and the freeze-up has been further delayed.

Estimating inter-annual variability in winter wheat sowing dates from satellite time series in Camargue, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manfron, Giacinto; Delmotte, Sylvestre; Busetto, Lorenzo; Hossard, Laure; Ranghetti, Luigi; Brivio, Pietro Alessandro; Boschetti, Mirco

2017-05-01

Crop simulation models are commonly used to forecast the performance of cropping systems under different hypotheses of change. Their use on a regional scale is generally constrained, however, by a lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of environment-related input variables (e.g., soil) and agricultural practices (e.g., sowing dates) that influence crop yields. Satellite remote sensing data can shed light on such variability by providing timely information on crop dynamics and conditions over large areas. This paper proposes a method for analyzing time series of MODIS satellite data in order to estimate the inter-annual variability of winter wheat sowing dates. A rule-based method was developed to automatically identify a reliable sample of winter wheat field time series, and to infer the corresponding sowing dates. The method was designed for a case study in the Camargue region (France), where winter wheat is characterized by vernalization, as in other temperate regions. The detection criteria were chosen on the grounds of agronomic expertise and by analyzing high-confidence time-series vegetation index profiles for winter wheat. This automatic method identified the target crop on more than 56% (four-year average) of the cultivated areas, with low commission errors (11%). It also captured the seasonal variability in sowing dates with errors of ±8 and ±16 days in 46% and 66% of cases, respectively. Extending the analysis to the years 2002-2012 showed that sowing in the Camargue was usually done on or around November 1st (±4 days). Comparing inter-annual sowing date variability with the main local agro-climatic drivers showed that the type of preceding crop and the weather conditions during the summer season before the wheat sowing had a prominent role in influencing winter wheat sowing dates.

Regulation of energy partitioning and alternative electron transport pathways during cold acclimation of lodgepole pine is oxygen dependent.

PubMed

Savitch, Leonid V; Ivanov, Alexander G; Krol, Marianna; Sprott, David P; Oquist, Gunnar; Huner, Norman P A

2010-09-01

Second year needles of Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta L.) were exposed for 6 weeks to either simulated control summer ['summer'; 25 °C/250 photon flux denisty (PFD)], autumn ('autumn'; 15°C/250 PFD) or winter conditions ('winter'; 5 °C/250 PFD). We report that the proportion of linear electron transport utilized in carbon assimilation (ETR(CO2)) was 40% lower in both 'autumn' and 'winter' pine when compared with the 'summer' pine. In contrast, the proportion of excess photosynthetic linear electron transport (ETR(excess)) not used for carbon assimilation within the total ETR(Jf) increased by 30% in both 'autumn' and 'winter' pine. In 'autumn' pine acclimated to 15°C, the increased amounts of 'excess' electrons were directed equally to 21  kPa O2-dependent and 2  kPa O2-dependent alternative electron transport pathways and the fractions of excitation light energy utilized by PSII photochemistry (Φ(PSII)), thermally dissipated through Φ(NPQ) and dissipated by additional quenching mechanism(s) (Φ(f,D)) were similar to those in 'summer' pine. In contrast, in 'winter' needles acclimated to 5 °C, 60% of photosynthetically generated 'excess' electrons were utilized through the 2  kPa O2-dependent electron sink and only 15% by the photorespiratory (21  kPa O2) electron pathway. Needles exposed to 'winter' conditions led to a 3-fold lower Φ(PSII), only a marginal increase in Φ(NPQ) and a 2-fold higher Φ(f,D), which was O2 dependent compared with the 'summer' and 'autumn' pine. Our results demonstrate that the employment of a variety of alternative pathways for utilization of photosynthetically generated electrons by Lodgepole pine depends on the acclimation temperature. Furthermore, dissipation of excess light energy through constitutive non-photochemical quenching mechanisms is O2 dependent.

Winter movement dynamics of Black Brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindberg, Mark S.; Ward, David H.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Roser, John

2007-01-01

Although North American geese are managed based on their breeding distributions, the dynamics of those breeding populations may be affected by events that occur during the winter. Birth rates of capital breeding geese may be influenced by wintering conditions, mortality may be influenced by timing of migration and wintering distribution, and immigration and emigration among breeding populations may depend on winter movement and timing of pair formation. We examined factors affecting movements of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) among their primary wintering sites in Mexico and southern California, USA, (Mar 1998-Mar 2000) using capture-recapture models. Although brant exhibited high probability (>0.85) of monthly and annual fidelity to the wintering sites we sampled, we observed movements among all wintering sites. Movement probabilities both within and among winters were negatively related to distance between sites. We observed a higher probability both of southward movement between winters (Mar to Dec) and northward movement between months within winters. Between-winter movements were probably most strongly affected by spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality as we saw movement patterns consistent with contrasting environmental conditions (e.g., La Niña and El Niño southern oscillation cycles). Month-to-month movements were related to migration patterns and may also have been affected by differences in habitat conditions among sites. Patterns of winter movements indicate that a network of wintering sites may be necessary for effective conservation of brant.

Winter movement dynamics of black brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindberg, Mark S.; Ward, David H.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Roser, John

2007-01-01

Although North American geese are managed based on their breeding distributions, the dynamics of those breeding populations may be affected by events that occur during the winter. Birth rates of capital breeding geese may be influenced by wintering conditions, mortality may be influenced by timing of migration and wintering distribution, and immigration and emigration among breeding populations may depend on winter movement and timing of pair formation. We examined factors affecting movements of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) among their primary wintering sites in Mexico and southern California, USA, (Mar 1998–Mar 2000) using capture–recapture models. Although brant exhibited high probability (>0.85) of monthly and annual fidelity to the wintering sites we sampled, we observed movements among all wintering sites. Movement probabilities both within and among winters were negatively related to distance between sites. We observed a higher probability both of southward movement between winters (Mar to Dec) and northward movement between months within winters. Between-winter movements were probably most strongly affected by spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality as we saw movement patterns consistent with contrasting environmental conditions (e.g., La Niña and El Niño southern oscillation cycles). Month-to-month movements were related to migration patterns and may also have been affected by differences in habitat conditions among sites. Patterns of winter movements indicate that a network of wintering sites may be necessary for effective conservation of brant.

Modelling short-term variability in carbon and water exchange in a temperate Scots pine forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeulen, M. H.; Kruijt, B. J.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

2015-07-01

The vegetation-atmosphere carbon and water exchange at one particular site can strongly vary from year to year, and understanding this interannual variability in carbon and water exchange (IAVcw) is a critical factor in projecting future ecosystem changes. However, the mechanisms driving this IAVcw are not well understood. We used data on carbon and water fluxes from a multi-year eddy covariance study (1997-2009) in a Dutch Scots pine forest and forced a process-based ecosystem model (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator; LPJ-GUESS) with local data to, firstly, test whether the model can explain IAVcw and seasonal carbon and water exchange from direct environmental factors only. Initial model runs showed low correlations with estimated annual gross primary productivity (GPP) and annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), while monthly and daily fluxes showed high correlations. The model underestimated GPP and AET during winter and drought events. Secondly, we adapted the temperature inhibition function of photosynthesis to account for the observation that at this particular site, trees continue to assimilate at very low atmospheric temperatures (up to daily averages of -10 °C), resulting in a net carbon sink in winter. While we were able to improve daily and monthly simulations during winter by lowering the modelled minimum temperature threshold for photosynthesis, this did not increase explained IAVcw at the site. Thirdly, we implemented three alternative hypotheses concerning water uptake by plants in order to test which one best corresponds with the data. In particular, we analyse the effects during the 2003 heatwave. These simulations revealed a strong sensitivity of the modelled fluxes during dry and warm conditions, but no single formulation was consistently superior in reproducing the data for all timescales and the overall model-data match for IAVcw could not be improved. Most probably access to deep soil water leads to higher AET and GPP simulated during the heatwave of 2003. We conclude that photosynthesis at lower temperatures than assumed in most models can be important for winter carbon and water fluxes in pine forests. Furthermore, details of the model representations of water uptake, which are often overlooked, need further attention, and deep water access should be treated explicitly.

Assessing the Impact of Air Pollution on Grain Yield of Winter Wheat - A Case Study in the North China Plain.

PubMed

Liu, Xiuwei; Sun, Hongyong; Feike, Til; Zhang, Xiying; Shao, Liwei; Chen, Suying

2016-01-01

The major wheat production region of China the North China Plain (NCP) is seriously affected by air pollution. In this study, yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was analyzed with respect to the potential impact of air pollution index under conditions of optimal crop management in the NCP from 2001 to 2012. Results showed that air pollution was especially serious at the early phase of winter wheat growth significantly influencing various weather factors. However, no significant correlations were found between final grain yield and the weather factors during the early growth phase. In contrast, significant correlations were found between grain yield and total solar radiation gap, sunshine hour gap, diurnal temperature range and relative humidity during the late growing phase. To disentangle the confounding effects of various weather factors, and test the isolated effect of air pollution induced changes in incoming global solar radiation on yield under ceteris paribus conditions, crop model based scenario-analysis was conducted. The simulation results of the calibrated Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model indicated that a reduction in radiation by 10% might cause a yield reduction by more than 10%. Increasing incident radiation by 10% would lead to yield increases of (only) 7%, with the effects being much stronger during the late growing phase compared to the early growing phase. However, there is evidence that APSIM overestimates the effect of air pollution induced changes on radiation, as it does not consider the changes in radiative properties of solar insulation, i.e. the relative increase of diffuse over direct radiation, which may partly alleviate the negative effects of reduced total radiation by air pollution. Concluding, the present study could not detect a significantly negative effect of air pollution on wheat yields in the NCP.

Energy allocation in juvenile roach and burbot under different temperature and feeding regimes.

PubMed

Binner, Maaike; Kloas, Werner; Hardewig, Iris

2008-06-01

Cold-active burbot (Lota lota (L.)) display reduced food intake during the summer. The impact of temperature on their energy budget was investigated in starved fish in a laboratory setting, simulating summer (20 degrees C) and winter (4 degrees C) conditions, to elucidate the impact of high temperature on burbot metabolism. Metabolic effects in burbot were compared to roach (Rutilus rutilus (L.)), which typically fast in winter. During warm acclimation, starvation (four weeks) resulted in a metabolic depression of oxygen consumption in both species. In roach, metabolic rate decreased by 55% after two weeks of starvation. Burbot, in contrast, displayed an immediate depression of metabolic rate by 50%. In both species, no reductions were observed in the cold. The temperature-induced differences between the metabolic rates at 20 degrees C and 4 degrees C showed a lower thermal sensitivity in burbot (Q (10) = 1.9) compared to roach (Q (10) = 2.7). Notably, for each species, energy consumption during starvation was highest under experimental conditions simulating their natural active periods, respectively. Warm acclimated roach relied mainly on muscle reserves, whereas in cold acclimated burbot, liver metabolic stores made a major contribution to the energy turnover. In cold acclimated roach and warm acclimated burbot, however, starvation apparently reduced swimming activity, resulting in considerable savings of energy reserves. These lower energy expenditures in roach and burbot corresponded to their natural inactive periods. Thus, starvation in burbot caused a lower energy turnover when exposed to high temperatures. These season-dependent adaptations of metabolism represent an advantageous strategy in burbot to manage winter temperature and withstand metabolism-activating summer temperatures, whereas roach metabolism correlates with the seasonal temperature cycle.

Dense water formation in the north-western Mediterranean area during HyMeX-SOP2 in 1/36° ocean simulations: Ocean-atmosphere coupling impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebeaupin Brossier, Cindy; Léger, Fabien; Giordani, Hervé; Beuvier, Jonathan; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Ducrocq, Véronique; Fourrié, Nadia

2017-07-01

The north-western Mediterranean Sea is a key location for the thermohaline circulation of the basin. The area is characterized by intense air-sea exchanges favored by the succession of strong northerly and north-westerly wind situations (mistral and tramontane) in autumn and winter. Such meteorological conditions lead to significant evaporation and ocean heat loss that are well known as the main triggering factor for the Dense Water Formation (DWF) and winter deep convection episodes. During the HyMeX second field campaign (SOP2, 1 February to 15 March 2013), several platforms were deployed in the area in order to document the DWF and the ocean deep convection, as the air-sea interface conditions. This study investigates the role of the ocean-atmosphere coupling on DWF during winter 2012-2013. The coupled system, based on the NEMO-WMED36 ocean model (1/36° resolution) and the AROME-WMED atmospheric model (2.5 km resolution), was run during 2 months covering the SOP2 and is compared to an ocean-only simulation forced by AROME-WMED real-time forecasts and to observations collected in the north-western Mediterranean area during the HyMeX SOP2. The comparison shows small differences in terms of net heat, water, and momentum fluxes. On average, DWF is slightly sensitive to air-sea coupling. However, fine-scale ocean processes, such as shelf DWF and export or eddies and fronts at the rim of the convective patch, are significantly modified. The wind-current interactions constitute an efficient coupled process at fine scale, acting as a turbulence propagating vectors, producing large mixing and convection at the rim of the convective patch.

Poleward transport variability in the Northern Hemisphere during final stratospheric warmings simulated by CESM(WACCM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Orsolini, Yvan J.; Hauchecorne, Alain; Huret, Nathalie

2016-09-01

Observational studies of Arctic stratospheric final warmings have shown that tropical/subtropical air masses can be advected to high latitudes and remain confined within a long-lived "frozen-in" anticyclone (FrIAC) for several months. It was suggested that the frequency of FrIACs may have increased since 2000 and that their interannual variability may be modulated by (i) the occurrence of major stratospheric warmings (mSSWs) in the preceding winter and (ii) the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). In this study, we tested these observational-based hypotheses for the first time using a chemistry climate model. Three 145 year sensitivity experiments were performed with the National Center of Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model (CESM): one control experiment including only natural variability, one with an extreme greenhouse gas emission scenario, and one without the QBO in the tropical stratosphere. In comparison with reanalysis, the model simulates a realistic frequency and characteristics of FrIACs, which occur under an abrupt and early winter-to-summer stratospheric circulation transition, driven by enhanced planetary wave activity. Furthermore, the model results support the suggestion that the development of FrIACs is favored by an easterly QBO in the middle stratosphere and by the absence of mSSWs during the preceding winter. The lower stratospheric persistence of background dynamical state anomalies induced by deep mSSWs leads to less favorable conditions for planetary waves to enter the high-latitude stratosphere in April, which in turn decreases the probability of FrIAC development. Our model results do not suggest that climate change conditions (RCP8.5 scenario) influence FrIAC occurrences.

Poleward Transport Variability in the Northern Hemisphere during Final Stratospheric Warmings simulated by CESM(WACCM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Orsolini, Yvan; Hauchecorne, Alain; Huret, Nathalie

2017-04-01

Observational studies of Arctic stratospheric final warmings have shown that tropical/subtropical air masses can be advected to high latitudes and remain confined within a long-lived "frozen-in" anticyclone (FrIAC) for several months. It was suggested that the frequency of FrIACs may have increased since 2000 and that their interannual variability may be modulated by (i) the occurrence of major stratospheric warmings (mSSWs) in the preceding winter and (ii) the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). In this study, we tested these observational-based hypotheses for the first time using a chemistry-climate model. Three 145-year sensitivity experiments were performed with the National Center of Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model (CESM): one control experiment including only natural variability, one with an extreme greenhouse gas emission scenario, and one without the QBO in the tropical stratosphere. In comparison with reanalysis, the model simulates a realistic frequency and characteristics of FrIACs, which occur under an abrupt and early winter-to-summer stratospheric circulation transition, driven by enhanced planetary wave activity. Furthermore, the model results support the suggestion that the development of FrIACs is favored by an easterly QBO in the middle stratosphere and by the absence of mSSWs during the preceding winter. The lower stratospheric persistence of background dynamical state anomalies induced by deep mSSWs leads to less favorable conditions for planetary waves to enter the high-latitude stratosphere in April, which in turn decreases the probability of FrIAC development. Our model results do not suggest that climate change conditions (RCP8.5 scenario) influence FrIAC occurrences.

Influence of climatic conditions on antiperspirant efficacy determined at different test areas.

PubMed

Brandt, Marianne; Bielfeldt, Stephan; Springmann, Gunja; Wilhelm, Klaus-Peter

2008-05-01

The efficacy of antiperspirants is a current topic among the developers of cosmetic products. According to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the US market, efficacy testing performed in the axilla of human volunteers is mandatory. Another method is yet available, which enables comparison of more than one antiperspirant formula in a single study by performing the test on the backs of volunteers. However, how reproducible are these methods, comparing between the back and axilla? Do they differ as a result of seasonal variation? Is a correlation between the results of the two methods possible? To answer these questions, the antiperspirant efficacy of aluminium chlorohydrate (ACH) aqueous solutions was investigated in the axilla and on the backs of volunteers, in four separate clinical studies covering cold and warm seasons. Four days of product application were followed by thermal sweat induction on the fifth day, using a sauna. The amount of sweat recovered by weighing cotton pads before and after sweat induction was used to calculate sweat reduction. Testing in the axilla and on the back was performed on the same volunteers simultaneously to achieve the best comparable data. For this reason, the FDA guideline was slightly modified to thermal stimulation in a sauna instead of in a hot room. Increasing concentrations of ACH in aqueous solutions on the backs of volunteers showed a saturation for 8% ACH with a sweat reduction of approximately 50%. The antiperspirant efficacy of solutions containing 4%, 8% or 12% ACH was repeatedly found at the same levels, when tested on the backs during summer, autumn and winter time. Axilla tests, with an 8% ACH aqueous solution, showed strongly varying results for summer and winter time, represented by sweat reduction values of -2% to 25%. As an assumption, these high variations might result from reduced gel formation in cold seasons due to low humidity in the axillae during the application phase. On the back, this effect was avoided by applying occlusive foils after product application. To gain further insight, a study, during which summer conditions were artificially simulated by thermal stimulation during the application phase, again showed decreased antiperspirant efficacy in the axilla for winter conditions with sweat reduction values of 2%, compared with 25% under simulated summer conditions. These strongly varying values of sweat reduction in the axilla under summer and winter conditions make comparisons between antiperspirant products difficult and a statement about correlation between the two test sites back and axilla impossible. A standardization of the application phase, comparable to the simulated summer conditions described here, could be a solution to reduce the high variation of results in the axilla. Consequently, testing on the back is not only a more cost-effective method to investigate the antiperspirant efficacy of more than one formulation, but a reproducible method more independent of climatic influences during test implementation than the axilla test method. It could, therefore, be regarded as the method of choice for discriminating antiperspirant efficacy between several products during development of new antiperspirant formulations.

Covariability of seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in high-resolution regional climate simulations (1001-2099)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Montes, S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Rodrigo, F. S.; García-Valero, J. A.; Montávez, J. P.

2017-04-01

Precipitation and surface temperature are interdependent variables, both as a response to atmospheric dynamics and due to intrinsic thermodynamic relationships and feedbacks between them. This study analyzes the covariability of seasonal temperature (T) and precipitation (P) across the Iberian Peninsula (IP) using regional climate paleosimulations for the period 1001-1990, driven by reconstructions of external forcings. Future climate (1990-2099) was simulated according to SRES scenarios A2 and B2. These simulations enable exploring, at high spatial resolution, robust and physically consistent relationships. In winter, positive P-T correlations dominate west-central IP (Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = + 0.43, for 1001-1990), due to prevalent cold-dry and warm-wet conditions, while this relationship weakens and become negative towards mountainous, northern and eastern regions. In autumn, negative correlations appear in similar regions as in winter, whereas for summer they extend also to the N/NW of the IP. In spring, the whole IP depicts significant negative correlations, strongest for eastern regions (ρ = - 0.51). This is due to prevalent frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes in these regions and seasons. At the temporal scale, regional correlation series between seasonal anomalies of temperature and precipitation (assessed in 31 years running windows in 1001-1990) show very large multidecadal variability. For winter and spring, periodicities of about 50-60 years arise. The frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes appears correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explaining mainly co-variability changes in spring. For winter and some regions in autumn, maximum and minimum P-T correlations appear in periods with enhanced meridional or easterly circulation (low or high pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean and Europe). In spring and summer, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation shows some fingerprint on the frequency of warm/cold modes. For future scenarios, an intensification of the negative P-T relationship is generally found, as a result of an increased frequency of the warm-dry mode.

Dissolved oxygen in the Tualatin River, Oregon, during winter flow conditions, 1991 and 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, V.J.

1996-01-01

Throughout the winter period, November through April, wastewater treatment plants in the Tualatin River Basin discharge from 10,000 to 15,000 pounds per day of biochemical oxygen demand to the river. These loads often increase substantially during storms when streamflow is high. During the early winter season, when streamflow is frequently less than the average winter flow, the treatment plants discharge about 2,000 pounds per day of ammonia. This study focused on the capacity of the Tualatin River to assimilat oxygen-demanding loads under winter streamflow conditions during the 1992 water year, with an emphasis on peak-flow conditions in the river, and winter-base-flow conditions during November 1992. Concentrations of dissolved oxygen throughout the main stem of the river during the winter remained generally high relative to the State standard for Oregon of 6 milligrams per liter. The most important factors controlling oxygen consumption during winter-low-flow conditions were carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand and input of oxygen-depleted waters from tributaries. During peak-flow conditions, reduced travel time and increased dilution associated with the increased streamflow minimized the effect of increased oxygen-demanding loads. During the base-flow period in November 1992, concentrations of dissolved oxygen were consistently below 6 milligrams per liter. A hydrodynamic water-quality model was used to identify the processes depleting dissolved oxygen, including sediment oxygen demand, nitrification, and carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand. Sediment oxygen demand was the most significant factor; nitrification was also important. Hypothetical scenarios were posed to evaluate the effect of different wastewater treatment plant loads during winter-base-flow conditions. Streamflow and temperature were significant factors governing concentrations of dissolved oxygen in the main-stem river.

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Climate Impact Assessment for Pacific Northwest Agricultural Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MU, J.; Antle, J. M.; Zhang, H.; Capalbo, S. M.; Eigenbrode, S.; Kruger, C.; Stockle, C.; Wolfhorst, J. D.

2013-12-01

Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are projections of plausible future biophysical and socio-economic conditions used to carry out climate impact assessments for agriculture. The development of RAPs iss motivated by the fact that the various global and regional models used for agricultural climate change impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation or public availability. These practices have hampered attempts at model inter-comparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. This paper aims to (1) present RAPs developed for the principal wheat-producing region of the Pacific Northwest, and to (2) combine these RAPs with downscaled climate data, crop model simulations and economic model simulations to assess climate change impacts on winter wheat production and farm income. This research was carried out as part of a project funded by the USDA known as the Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest (REACCH). The REACCH study region encompasses the major winter wheat production area in Pacific Northwest and preliminary research shows that farmers producing winter wheat could benefit from future climate change. However, the future world is uncertain in many dimensions, including commodity and input prices, production technology, and policies, as well as increased probability of disturbances (pests and diseases) associated with a changing climate. Many of these factors cannot be modeled, so they are represented in the regional RAPS. The regional RAPS are linked to global agricultural and shared social-economic pathways, and used along with climate change projections to simulate future outcomes for the wheat-based farms in the REACCH region.

Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattiaux, J.; Cassou, C.

2015-12-01

Strength and inland penetration of the oceanic westerly flow over Europe control a large part of the temperature variability over most of the continent. Reduced westerlies, linked to high-pressure anomalies over Scandinavia, induce cold conditions in winter and warm conditions in summer. Here we propose to define the onset of these two seasons as the calendar day where the daily circulation/temperature relationship over Western Europe switches sign. According to this meteorologically-based metrics assessed from several observational datasets, we provide robust evidence for an earlier summer onset by ~10 days between the 1960s and 2000s. Results from model ensemble simulations dedicated to detection-attribution show that this calendar advance is incompatible with the sole internal climate variability and can be attributed to anthropogenic forcings. Late winter snow disappearance over Eastern Europe affects cold air intrusion to the West when easterlies blow, and is mainly responsible for the observed present-day and near-future summer advance. Our findings agree with phenological-based trends (earlier spring events) reported for many living species over Europe, for which they provide a novel dynamical interpretation beyond the traditionally evoked global warming effect. Based on business-as-usual scenario, a seasonal shift of ~25 days is expected by 2100 for summer onset, while no clear signal arises for winter onset.

Response of ice cover on shallow Arctic lakes to contemporary climate conditions: Numerical modeling and remote sensing data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duguay, C.; Surdu, C.; Brown, L.; Samuelsson, P.

2012-04-01

Lake ice cover has been shown to be a robust indicator of climate variability and change. Recent studies have demonstrated that break-up dates, in particular, have been occurring earlier in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere over the last 50 years in response to warmer climatic conditions in the winter and spring seasons. The impacts of trends in air temperature and winter precipitation over the last five decades and those projected by global climate models will affect the timing and duration of ice cover (and ice thickness) on Arctic lakes. This will likely, in turn, have an important feedback effect on energy, water, and biogeochemical cycling in various regions of the Arctic. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3-m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in a smaller fraction of lakes that freeze to their bed in winter since thinner ice covers are expected to develop. Shallow lakes of the coastal plain of northern Alaska, and other similar regions of the Arctic, have likely been experiencing changes in seasonal ice thickness (and phenology) over the last few decades but these have not yet been documented. This paper presents results from a numerical lake ice modeling experiment and the analysis of ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to elucidate the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA)to climate conditions over the last three decades. New downscaled data specific for the Arctic domain (at a resolution of 0.44 degrees using ERA Interim Reanalysis as boundary condition) produced by the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA4) was used to force the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo) for the period 1979-2010. Output from CLIMo included freeze-up and break-up dates as well as ice thickness on a daily basis. ERS-1/2 data was used to map areas of shallow lakes that freeze to bed and when this happens (timing) in winter for the period 1991-2010. Preliminary results from a sub-region of the NSA show that the interannual variability in ice thickness simulated with CLIMo match well that of the fraction of lakes that freeze to their bed in winter as determined from the analysis of SAR data.

Impacts of climate change on growth period and planting boundaries of winter wheat in China under RCP4.5 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Z.; Jia, S. F.; Lv, A. F.; Yang, K. J.; Svensson, J.; Gao, Y. C.

2015-10-01

This paper advances understanding of the impacts of climate change on crops in China by moving from ex-post analysis to forecasting, and by demonstrating how the effects of climate change will affect the growth period and the planting boundaries of winter wheat. Using a multiple regression model based on agricultural meteorological observations and the IPCC AR5 GCMs simulations, we find that the sowing date of winter wheat in the base period, 2040s and 2070s, shows a gradually delayed trend from north to south and the growth period of winter wheat in China will be shortened under climate change. The simulation results also show that (i) the north planting boundaries of winter wheat in China will likely move northward and expand westward in the future, while the south planting boundary will rise and spread in south Hainan and Taiwan; and (ii) the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will have the largest increases in planting areas in 2040s and 2070s. Our simulation implies that Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are more sensitive to climate change than other regions in China and priority should be given to design adaptation strategies for winter wheat planting for these provinces.

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model for Simulating Winter Ozone Formation in the Uinta Basin.

EPA Science Inventory

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models were used to simulate a 10 day high‐ozone episode observed during the 2013 Uinta Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS). The baseline model had a large negative bias when compared to ozo...

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging over the Northeastern Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swain, Daniel L.; Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Mankin, Justin S.; Ballard, Tristan C.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-01-01

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter 'rainy season.' Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient-including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures, and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging Over the Northeastern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Daniel L.; Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Mankin, Justin S.; Ballard, Tristan C.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-11-01

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter "rainy season." Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient—including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

Assessing winter cover crop nutrient uptake efficiency using a water quality simulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yeo, In-Young; Lee, Sangchui; Sadeghi, Ali M.; Beeson, Peter C.; Hively, W. Dean; McCarty, Greg W.; Lang, Megan W.

2013-01-01

Winter cover crops are an effective conservation management practice with potential to improve water quality. Throughout the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW), which is located in the Mid-Atlantic US, winter cover crop use has been emphasized and federal and state cost-share programs are available to farmers to subsidize the cost of winter cover crop establishment. The objective of this study was to assess the long-term effect of planting winter cover crops at the watershed scale and to identify critical source areas of high nitrate export. A physically-based watershed simulation model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was calibrated and validated using water quality monitoring data and satellite-based estimates of winter cover crop species performance to simulate hydrological processes and nutrient cycling over the period of 1991–2000. Multiple scenarios were developed to obtain baseline information on nitrate loading without winter cover crops planted and to investigate how nitrate loading could change with different winter cover crop planting scenarios, including different species, planting times, and implementation areas. The results indicate that winter cover crops had a negligible impact on water budget, but significantly reduced nitrate leaching to groundwater and delivery to the waterways. Without winter cover crops, annual nitrate loading was approximately 14 kg ha−1, but it decreased to 4.6–10.1 kg ha−1 with winter cover crops resulting in a reduction rate of 27–67% at the watershed scale. Rye was most effective, with a potential to reduce nitrate leaching by up to 93% with early planting at the field scale. Early planting of winter cover crops (~30 days of additional growing days) was crucial, as it lowered nitrate export by an additional ~2 kg ha−1 when compared to late planting scenarios. The effectiveness of cover cropping increased with increasing extent of winter cover crop implementation. Agricultural fields with well-drained soils and those that were more frequently used to grow corn had a higher potential for nitrate leaching and export to the waterways. This study supports the effective implement of winter cover crop programs, in part by helping to target critical pollution source areas for winter cover crop implementation.

Preconditioning and Formation Mechanisms of Maud Rise (Open Ocean) Polynyas in a High-Resolution CESM Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurtakoti, P. K.; Veneziani, C.; Stoessel, A.; Weijer, W.

2016-12-01

Processes responsible for preconditioning and formation of Maud Rise Polynyas (MRP) were analyzed within the framework of a high-resolution fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation. Open Ocean Polynyas (OOPs) are large ice-free areas within the winter ice pack. These are regions of deep convection and strong atmosphere-ice-ocean interaction through which they play an important role in the formation of bottom waters. The data analyzed comes from a simulation conducted in a pre-industrial scenario as part of the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) project. Within this simulation, persistent winter OOPs were simulated in the Weddell Sea (Weddell Sea Polynya) and over the Maud Rise seamount (Maud Rise Polynya). The sea ice concentration in the Weddell Sea shows that MRP acts as a precondition to Weddell Sea polynyas, which is consistent with mid 1970s observations of a westward expansion of MRP into the Weddell Sea. The OOPs in years 30-40 of the CESM simulation are largely over Maud Rise giving us an opportunity to investigate processes that trigger and maintain the OOP in winter over Maud Rise. The heat content of the Weddell Deep Water (WDW) is seen to be an important factor for MRPs, consistent with previous studies. The first MRP in the 30s coincides with the strongest negative wind stress curl over the Weddell Sea, which implies that this condition is a triggering mechanism for deep convection. The deep convective event associated with the OOP leads to a reduction of deep ocean heat reservoir up to 3000m depth. The simulation captures a westward flow of WDW impinging on Maud Rise seamount. Previous studies suggest Taylor column dynamics to be necessary for MRPs to emerge. We have explored how Taylor column dynamics could contribute to preconditioning and triggering deep open ocean convection over Maud Rise Seamount. We also investigate the importance of resolution of bottom topography for the formation of a strong enough Taylor column over Maud Rise to interact with the pycnocline to the point that an OOP develops.

Comparing Model Ozone Loss during the SOLVE and SOLVE-2 Winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drdla, K.

2003-01-01

Model simulations have been used to analyze the factors influencing ozone loss during the 1999-2000 and 2002-2003 js. For both winters, the evolution of the Arctic vortex from November to April has been simulated using a trajectory-based microphysical and photochemical model. Extensive PSC formation and strong ozone depletion are evident in both winters. However, the ozone loss begins earlier in the 2002-2003 winter, with significant ozone depletion by early January. Analysis of the model results shows that during December 2002 not only cold temperatures but also the vortex structure was critical, allowing PSC-processed air parcels to experience significant solar exposure. The resultant ozone loss can be differentiated from ozone loss that occurs in the springtime, in particular because of the continued exposure to PSCs. For example, chlorine reactivation by the PSCs causes ozone loss to be insensitive to denitrification. Therefore, diagnosing the extent of ozone loss early in the winter is critical In understanding the overall winter-long ozone depletion.

Holocene warming in western continental Eurasia driven by glacial retreat and greenhouse forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Jonathan L.; Lachniet, Matthew S.; Chervyatsova, Olga; Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor J.

2017-06-01

The global temperature evolution during the Holocene is poorly known. Whereas proxy data suggest that warm conditions prevailed in the Early to mid-Holocene with subsequent cooling, model reconstructions show long-term warming associated with ice-sheet retreat and rising greenhouse gas concentrations. One reason for this contradiction could be the under-representation of indicators for winter climate in current global proxy reconstructions. Here we present records of carbon and oxygen isotopes from two U-Th-dated stalagmites from Kinderlinskaya Cave in the southern Ural Mountains that document warming during the winter season from 11,700 years ago to the present. Our data are in line with the global Holocene temperature evolution reconstructed from transient model simulations. We interpret Eurasian winter warming during the Holocene as a response to the retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets until about 7,000 years ago, and to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and winter insolation thereafter. We attribute negative δ18O anomalies 11,000 and 8,200 years ago to enhanced meltwater forcing of North Atlantic Ocean circulation, and a rapid decline of δ13C during the Early Holocene with stabilization after about 10,000 years ago to afforestation at our study site. We conclude that winter climate dynamics dominated Holocene temperature evolution in the continental interior of Eurasia, in contrast to regions more proximal to the ocean.

Intercontinental gene flow among western arctic populations of Lesser Snow Geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shorey, Rainy I.; Scribner, Kim T.; Kanefsky, Jeannette; Samuel, Michael D.; Libants, Scot V.

2011-01-01

Quantifying the spatial genetic structure of highly vagile species of birds is important in predicting their degree of population demographic and genetic independence during changing environmental conditions, and in assessing their abundance and distribution. In the western Arctic, Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) provide an example useful for evaluating spatial population genetic structure and the relative contribution of male and female philopatry to breeding and wintering locales. We analyzed biparentally inherited microsatellite loci and maternally inherited mtDNA sequences from geese breeding at Wrangel Island (Russia) and Banks Island (Canada) to estimate gene flow among populations whose geographic overlap during breeding and winter differ. Significant differences in the frequencies of mtDNA haplotypes contrast with the homogeneity of allele frequencies for microsatellite loci. Coalescence simulations revealed high variability and asymmetry between males and females in rates and direction of gene flow between populations. Our results highlight the importance of wintering areas to demographic independence and spatial genetic structure of these populations. Male-mediated gene flow among the populations on northern Wrangel Island, southern Wrangel Island, and Banks Island has been substantial. A high rate of female-mediated gene flow from southern Wrangel Island to Banks Island suggests that population exchange can be achieved when populations winter in a common area. Conversely, when birds from different breeding populations do not share a common wintering area, the probability of population exchange is likely to be dramatically reduced.

Warmed Winter Water Temperatures Alter Reproduction in Two Fish Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firkus, Tyler; Rahel, Frank J.; Bergman, Harold L.; Cherrington, Brian D.

2018-02-01

We examined the spawning success of Fathead Minnows ( Pimephales promelas) and Johnny Darters ( Etheostoma nigrum) exposed to elevated winter water temperatures typical of streams characterized by anthropogenic thermal inputs. When Fathead Minnows were exposed to temperature treatments of 12, 16, or 20 °C during the winter, spawning occurred at 16 and 20 °C but not 12 °C. Eggs were deposited over 9 weeks before winter spawning ceased. Fathead Minnows from the three winter temperature treatments were then exposed to a simulated spring transition. Spawning occurred at all three temperature treatments during the spring, but fish from the 16° and 20 °C treatment had delayed egg production indicating a latent effect of warm winter temperatures on spring spawning. mRNA analysis of the egg yolk protein vitellogenin showed elevated expression in female Fathead Minnows at 16 and 20 °C during winter spawning that decreased after winter spawning ceased, whereas Fathead Minnows at 12 °C maintained comparatively low expression during winter. Johnny Darters were exposed to 4 °C to represent winter temperatures in the absence of thermal inputs, and 12, 16, and 20 °C to represent varying degrees of winter thermal pollution. Johnny Darters spawned during winter at 12, 16, and 20 °C but not at 4 °C. Johnny Darters at 4 °C subsequently spawned following a simulated spring period while those at 12, 16, and 20 °C did not. Our results indicate elevated winter water temperatures common in effluent-dominated streams can promote out-of-season spawning and that vitellogenin expression is a useful indicator of spawning readiness for fish exposed to elevated winter temperatures.

Warmed Winter Water Temperatures Alter Reproduction in Two Fish Species.

PubMed

Firkus, Tyler; Rahel, Frank J; Bergman, Harold L; Cherrington, Brian D

2018-02-01

We examined the spawning success of Fathead Minnows (Pimephales promelas) and Johnny Darters (Etheostoma nigrum) exposed to elevated winter water temperatures typical of streams characterized by anthropogenic thermal inputs. When Fathead Minnows were exposed to temperature treatments of 12, 16, or 20 °C during the winter, spawning occurred at 16 and 20 °C but not 12 °C. Eggs were deposited over 9 weeks before winter spawning ceased. Fathead Minnows from the three winter temperature treatments were then exposed to a simulated spring transition. Spawning occurred at all three temperature treatments during the spring, but fish from the 16° and 20 °C treatment had delayed egg production indicating a latent effect of warm winter temperatures on spring spawning. mRNA analysis of the egg yolk protein vitellogenin showed elevated expression in female Fathead Minnows at 16 and 20 °C during winter spawning that decreased after winter spawning ceased, whereas Fathead Minnows at 12 °C maintained comparatively low expression during winter. Johnny Darters were exposed to 4 °C to represent winter temperatures in the absence of thermal inputs, and 12, 16, and 20 °C to represent varying degrees of winter thermal pollution. Johnny Darters spawned during winter at 12, 16, and 20 °C but not at 4 °C. Johnny Darters at 4 °C subsequently spawned following a simulated spring period while those at 12, 16, and 20 °C did not. Our results indicate elevated winter water temperatures common in effluent-dominated streams can promote out-of-season spawning and that vitellogenin expression is a useful indicator of spawning readiness for fish exposed to elevated winter temperatures.

Improving winter leaf area index estimation in coniferous forests and its significance in estimating the land surface albedo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rong; Chen, Jing M.; Pavlic, Goran; Arain, Altaf

2016-09-01

Winter leaf area index (LAI) of evergreen coniferous forests exerts strong control on the interception of snow, snowmelt and energy balance. Simulation of winter LAI and associated winter processes in land surface models is challenging. Retrieving winter LAI from remote sensing data is difficult due to cloud contamination, poor illumination, lower solar elevation and higher radiation reflection by snow background. Underestimated winter LAI in evergreen coniferous forests is one of the major issues limiting the application of current remote sensing LAI products. It has not been fully addressed in past studies in the literature. In this study, we used needle lifespan to correct winter LAI in a remote sensing product developed by the University of Toronto. For the validation purpose, the corrected winter LAI was then used to calculate land surface albedo at five FLUXNET coniferous forests in Canada. The RMSE and bias values for estimated albedo were 0.05 and 0.011, respectively, for all sites. The albedo map over coniferous forests across Canada produced with corrected winter LAI showed much better agreement with the GLASS (Global LAnd Surface Satellites) albedo product than the one produced with uncorrected winter LAI. The results revealed that the corrected winter LAI yielded much greater accuracy in simulating land surface albedo, making the new LAI product an improvement over the original one. Our study will help to increase the usability of remote sensing LAI products in land surface energy budget modeling.

Multi-scale linkages of winter drought variability to ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation: A case study in Shaanxi, North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhiyong; Zhang, Xin; Fang, Ruihong

2018-02-01

Understanding the potential connections between climate indices such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and drought variability will be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts, and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design for specific regions of interest. This study is to examine the multi-scale relationships between winter drought variability over Shaanxi (North China) and both ENSO and AO during the period 1960-2009. To accomplish this, we first estimated winter dryness/wetness conditions over Shaanxi based on the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Then, we identified the spatiotemporal variability of winter dryness/wetness conditions in the study area by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF). Two primary sub-regions of winter dryness/wetness conditions across Shaanxi were identified. We further examined the periodical oscillations of dryness/wetness conditions and the multi-scale relationships between dryness/wetness conditions and both ENSO and AO in winter using wavelet analysis. The results indicate that there are inverse multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and ENSO (according to the wavelet coherence) for most of the study area. Moreover, positive multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and AO are mainly observed. The results could be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design within this study area. In addition to the current study area, this study may also offer a useful reference for other regions worldwide with similar climate conditions.

Develop an early warning climate indicator to support the Nation's resilience to 'flash' droughts over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; YANG, Z.; Solis, R.

2013-12-01

'Flash' droughts refer to those droughts that intensify rapidly in spring and summer, coupled with a strong increase of summer extreme temperatures, such as those that occurred over Texas in 2011 and the Great Plains in 2012. These droughts represent a great threat to North American water security. Climate models have failed to predict these 'flash' droughts and are ambiguous in projecting their future changes largely because of models' weaknesses in predicting summer rainfall and soil moisture feedbacks. By contrast, climate models are more reliable in simulating changes of large-scale circulation and warming of temperatures during the winter and spring seasons. We present a prototype of an early warning indicator for the risk of 'flash' droughts in summer by using the large-scale circulation and land surface conditions in winter and spring based on observed relationships between these conditions and their underlying physical mechanisms established by previous observations and numerical model simulations. This prototype 'flash' drought indicator (IFDW) currently uses global and regional reanalysis products (e.g., CFSR, MERRA, NLDAS products) in winter and spring to provide an assessment of summer drought severity similar to drought severity indices like PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index), SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) etc., provided by the National Integrated Drought Information Center (NIDIS) with additional information about uncertainty and past probability distributions of IFDW. Preliminary evaluation of hindcasts suggests that the indicator captures the occurrences of all the regional severe to extreme summer droughts during the past 63 years (1949-2011) over the US Great Plains, and 95% of the drought ending. This prototype IFDW has several advantages over the available drought indices that simply track local drought conditions in the past, present and future: 1) It mitigates the weakness of current climate models in predicting future summer droughts and takes advantage of model strengths and our understanding of the mechanisms that control 'flash' droughts; 2) It provides actionable drought risk information for stakeholders before droughts become fully developed in the current climate; 3) It can potentially link the future increase of temperatures in winter and spring to the risk of 'flash' droughts in summer. Such a link would make the projected changes of the 'flash' droughts more intuitive and compelling to high-level decision makers and the public.

Vehicle automation: a remedy for driver stress?

PubMed

Funke, G; Matthews, G; Warm, J S; Emo, A K

2007-08-01

The present study addressed the effects of stress, vehicle automation and subjective state on driver performance and mood in a simulated driving task. A total of 168 college students participated. Participants in the stress-induction condition completed a 'winter' drive, which included periodic loss of control episodes. Participants in the no-stress-induction condition were not exposed to loss of control. An additional, independent manipulation of vehicle speed was also conducted, consisting of two control conditions requiring manual speed regulation and a third in which vehicle speed was automatically regulated by the simulation. Stress and automation both influenced subjective distress, but the two factors did not interact. Driver performance data indicated that vehicle automation impacted performance similarly in the stress and no-stress conditions. Individual differences in subjective stress response and performance were also investigated. Resource theory provides a framework that partially but not completely explains the relationship between vehicle automation and driver stress. Implications for driver workload, safety and training are discussed.

Operational forecasting of daily temperatures in the Valencia Region. Part II: minimum temperatures in winter.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, I.; Estrela, M.

2009-09-01

Extreme temperature events have a great impact on human society. Knowledge of minimum temperatures during winter is very useful for both the general public and organisations whose workers have to operate in the open, e.g. railways, roadways, tourism, etc. Moreover, winter minimum temperatures are considered a parameter of interest and concern since persistent cold-waves can affect areas as diverse as public health, energy consumption, etc. Thus, an accurate forecasting of these temperatures could help to predict cold-wave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that low temperatures have on human health. The aim of this work is to evaluate the skill of the RAMS model in determining daily minimum temperatures during winter over the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the CEAM Foundation. To carry out the model verification process, we have analysed not only the global behaviour of the model for the whole Valencia Region, but also its behaviour for the individual stations distributed within this area. The study has been performed for the winter forecast period from 1 December 2007 - 31 March 2008. The results obtained are encouraging and indicate a good agreement between the observed and simulated minimum temperatures. Moreover, the model captures quite well the temperatures in the extreme cold episodes. Acknowledgement. This work was supported by "GRACCIE" (CSD2007-00067, Programa Consolider-Ingenio 2010), by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, contract number CGL2005-03386/CLI, and by the Regional Government of Valencia Conselleria de Sanitat, contract "Simulación de las olas de calor e invasiones de frío y su regionalización en la Comunidad Valenciana" ("Heat wave and cold invasion simulation and their regionalization at Valencia Region"). The CEAM Foundation is supported by the Generalitat Valenciana and BANCAIXA (Valencia, Spain).

Winter feeding, growth and condition of brown trout Salmo trutta in a groundwater-dominated stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

French, William E.; Vondracek, Bruce C.; Ferrington, Leonard C.; Finlay, Jacques C.; Dieterman, Douglas J.

2014-01-01

Winter can be a stressful period for stream-dwelling salmonid populations, often resulting in reduced growth and survival. Stream water temperatures have been identified as a primary mechanism driving reductions in fitness during winter. However, groundwater inputs can moderate water temperature and may reduce winter severity. Additionally, seasonal reductions in prey availability may contribute to decreased growth and survival, although few studies have examined food webs supporting salmonids under winter conditions. This study employed diet, stable isotope, and mark-recapture techniques to examine winter (November through March) feeding, growth, and condition of brown troutSalmo trutta in a groundwater-dominated stream (Badger Creek, Minnesota, USA). Growth was greater for fish ≤ 150 mm (mean = 4.1 mg g−1 day−1) than for those 151–276 mm (mean = 1.0 mg g−1 day−1) during the winter season. Overall condition from early winter to late winter did not vary for fish ≤150 mm (mean relative weight (Wr) = 89.5) and increased for those 151–276 mm (mean Wr = 85.8 early and 89.4 late). Although composition varied both temporally and by individual, brown trout diets were dominated by aquatic invertebrates, primarily Amphipods, Dipterans, and Trichopterans. Stable isotope analysis supported the observations of the dominant prey taxa in stomach contents and indicated the winter food web was supported by a combination of allochthonous inputs and aquatic macrophytes. Brown trout in Badger Creek likely benefited from the thermal regime and increased prey abundance present in this groundwater-dominated stream during winter.

Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental winter warming.

PubMed

Cronin, Timothy W; Tziperman, Eli

2015-09-15

High-latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback--consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with warming of the initial state--slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental warming. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼ 10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the "lapse rate feedback" in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates.

Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental winter warming

PubMed Central

Cronin, Timothy W.; Tziperman, Eli

2015-01-01

High-latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback—consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with warming of the initial state—slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental warming. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the “lapse rate feedback” in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates. PMID:26324919

Nutritional condition of Pacific Black Brant wintering at the extremes of their range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mason, D.D.; Barboza, P.S.; Ward, D.H.

2006-01-01

Endogenous stores of energy allow birds to survive periods of severe weather and food shortage during winter. We documented changes in lipid, protein, moisture, and ash in body tissues of adult female Pacific Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) and modeled the energetic costs of wintering. Birds were collected at the extremes of their winter range, in Alaska and Baja California, Mexico. Body lipids decreased over winter for birds in Alaska but increased for those in Baja California. Conversely, body protein increased over winter for Brant in Alaska and remained stable for birds in Baja California. Lipid stores likely fuel migration for Brant wintering in Baja California and ensure winter survival for those in Alaska. Increases in body protein may support earlier reproduction for Brant in Alaska. Predicted energy demands were similar between sites during late winter but avenues of expenditure were different. Birds in Baja California spent more energy on lipid synthesis while those in Alaska incurred higher thermoregulatory costs. Estimated daily intake rates of eelgrass were similar between sites in early winter; however, feeding time was more constrained in Alaska because of high tides and short photoperiods. Despite differences in energetic costs and foraging time, Brant wintering at both sites appeared to be in good condition. We suggest that wintering in Alaska may be more advantageous than long-distance migration if winter survival is similar between sites and constraints on foraging time do not impair body condition. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

Impacts of Oil and Gas Production on Winter Ozone Pollution in the Uintah Basin Using Model Source Apportionment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, H. N. Q.; Tran, T. T.; Mansfield, M. L.; Lyman, S. N.

2014-12-01

Contributions of emissions from oil and gas activities to elevated ozone concentrations in the Uintah Basin - Utah were evaluated using the CMAQ Integrated Source Apportionment Method (CMAQ-ISAM) technique, and were compared with the results of traditional budgeting methods. Unlike the traditional budgeting method, which compares simulations with and without emissions of the source(s) in question to quantify its impacts, the CMAQ-ISAM technique assigns tags to emissions of each source and tracks their evolution through physical and chemical processes to quantify the final ozone product yield from the source. Model simulations were performed for two episodes in winter 2013 of low and high ozone to provide better understanding of source contributions under different weather conditions. Due to the highly nonlinear ozone chemistry, results obtained from the two methods differed significantly. The growing oil and gas industry in the Uintah Basin is the largest contributor to the elevated zone (>75 ppb) observed in the Basin. This study therefore provides an insight into the impact of oil and gas industry on the ozone issue, and helps in determining effective control strategies.

Timing of eclosion affects diapause development, fat body consumption and longevity in Osmia lignaria, a univoltine, adult-wintering solitary bee.

PubMed

Bosch, Jordi; Sgolastra, Fabio; Kemp, William P

2010-12-01

Most insects from temperate areas enter diapause ahead of winter. Species diapausing in a feeding stage and accumulating metabolic reserves during permissive pre-wintering conditions are expected to enter diapause shortly before the onset of winter. In contrast, species diapausing in a non-feeding stage are expected to lower their metabolism as soon as possible to avoid excessive consumption of metabolic reserves. The solitary bee Osmia lignaria winters as a non-feeding adult within its cocoon, but previous studies show important weight losses and increased winter mortality in populations pre-wintered for extended periods. We measured respiration rates to assess diapause initiation and maintenance during pre-wintering, and tested whether timing of adult eclosion affected fitness by measuring fat body depletion, winter mortality and post-winter longevity. We worked with different cohorts of a population reared under natural conditions, and manipulated pre-wintering duration in a population reared under artificial conditions. In agreement with our expectation, O. lignaria lower their metabolic rates within a few days of adult eclosion, but nonetheless suffer strong weight loss during pre-wintering. Early developing individuals suffer greater weight loss and fat body depletion, and have short post-winter longevity. Although, we found no differences in winter mortality among treatments, our results indicate that increased mortality may occur in years with late winter arrivals. We discuss fundamental ecophysiological differences between adult and prepupal diapause within the Megachilidae, and hypothesize that species wintering as adults will be more negatively affected by a situation of extended summers under a scenario of global warming. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contrasting Response of Carbon Fluxes to Winter Warming across Land Cover Types in Southern NH, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders-DeMott, R.; Ouimette, A.; Lepine, L. C.; Fogarty, S.; Burakowski, E. A.; Contosta, A.; Ollinger, S. V.; Conte, T.

2017-12-01

Natural and managed ecosystems play a key role in climate through regulation of carbon dioxide, as well as their effects on other greenhouse gases, surface heat fluxes, and albedo. In the northeastern United States, winter air temperatures are rising more rapidly than mean annual temperatures and the depth and duration of seasonal snowpack is decreasing. Although winter fluxes of carbon are small relative to the growing season, there is mounting evidence that biological processes in winter contribute significantly to annual ecosystem carbon budgets and that changes in winter conditions could lead to shifting patterns and magnitudes of seasonal carbon uptake. To determine the response of differing land cover types to variation in winter conditions we used eddy covariance to monitor carbon exchange from a co-located mixed temperate forest and a managed grassland in Durham, NH from 2014-2017, which included an anomalous warm winter (air temperatures 3°C warmer than 14-year mean) with low snowpack in 2016. We examined cumulative winter and spring net ecosystem exchange, as well as the sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to air and soil temperatures in the presence and absence of a deep (>15 cm) snowpack. We found that warm winter temperatures and low snow conditions led to relatively large cumulative losses of carbon from the forest in February/March 2016, while the grassland was a moderate net sink for carbon during the same period. When temperatures were above 0°C, mid-day carbon uptake in the grassland was controlled by the presence or absence of snow cover. Our results suggest that forest carbon losses to the atmosphere in deciduous forests may increase during warm, snow-free winter conditions when vegetation is restricted in winter carbon uptake capacity by phenology. However, non-forested vegetation such as perennial grasses have a greater potential to activate photosynthesis in winter and to take up carbon in the "dormant season," perhaps moderating increasing winter carbon losses due to increasing winter temperatures.

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

1999-01-01

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

European vegetation during Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage-3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntley, Brian; Alfano, Mary J. o.; Allen, Judy R. M.; Pollard, Dave; Tzedakis, Polychronis C.; de Beaulieu, Jacques-Louis; Grüger, Eberhard; Watts, Bill

2003-03-01

European vegetation during representative "warm" and "cold" intervals of stage-3 was inferred from pollen analytical data. The inferred vegetation differs in character and spatial pattern from that of both fully glacial and fully interglacial conditions and exhibits contrasts between warm and cold intervals, consistent with other evidence for stage-3 palaeoenvironmental fluctuations. European vegetation thus appears to have been an integral component of millennial environmental fluctuations during stage-3; vegetation responded to this scale of environmental change and through feedback mechanisms may have had effects upon the environment. The pollen-inferred vegetation was compared with vegetation simulated using the BIOME 3.5 vegetation model for climatic conditions simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM2) nested within a coupled global climate and vegetation model (GENESIS-BIOME). Despite some discrepancies in detail, both approaches capture the principal features of the present vegetation of Europe. The simulated vegetation for stage-3 differs markedly from that inferred from pollen analytical data, implying substantial discrepancy between the simulated climate and that actually prevailing. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the simulated climate is too warm and probably has too short a winter season. These discrepancies may reflect incorrect specification of sea surface temperature or sea-ice conditions and may be exacerbated by vegetation-climate feedback in the coupled global model.

The Role of Snow Thickness over Arctic Winter Sea Ice in the Survival and Dispersal of Brine-Derived Microbes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deming, J. W.; Ewert, M.; Bowman, J. S.

2013-12-01

The brines of polar winter sea ice are inhabited by significant densities of microbes (Bacteria and Archaea) that experience a range of extreme conditions depending on location in, and age of, the ice. Newly formed sea ice in winter expels microbes (and organic exudates) onto the surface of the ice, where they can be wicked into frost flowers or into freshly deposited snow, resulting in populations at the ice-air and air-snow interfaces characterized by even more extreme conditions. The influence of snow thickness over the ice on the fate of these microbes, and their potential for dispersal or mediation of exchanges with other components of the ice-snow system, is not well known. Examination of in situ temperature data from the Mass Balance Observatory (MBO) offshore of Barrow, Alaska, during the winter of 2011 allowed recognition of an hierarchy of fluctuation regimes in temperature and (by calculation) brine salinity, where the most stable conditions were encountered within the sea ice and the least stable highest in the snow cover, where temperature fluctuations were significantly more energetic as determined by an analysis of power spectral density. A prior analysis of snow thickness near the MBO had already revealed significant ablation events, potentially associated with bacterial mortality, that would have exposed the saline (microbe-rich) snow layer to wind-based dispersal. To better understand the survival of marine bacteria under these dynamic and extreme conditions, we conducted laboratory experiments with Arctic bacterial isolates, subjecting them to simulations of the freezing regimes documented at the MBS. The impact of the fluctuation regime was shown to be species-specific, with the organism of narrower temperature and salinity growth ranges suffering 30-50% mortality (which could be partially relieved by providing protection against salt-shock). This isolate, the psychrophilic marine bacterium Colwellia psychrerythraea strain 34H (temperature range of -12 to 18°C, salinity range of 20 to 50), was originally isolated from Arctic marine sediments. The other isolate, the psychrotolerant and extremely halophilic bacterium Psychrobacter sp. strain 7E (temperature range of -1 [possibly lower] to 25°C, salinity range of 32 to 125), not only survived the most extreme conditions but demonstrated a potentially effective dispersal strategy of cell fragmentation and miniaturization (resulting in higher cell numbers). This extremophile was isolated from upper winter sea-ice brine in the Beaufort Sea. Bacterial survival and dispersal from sea-ice brines in Arctic winter thus appears to depend on the nature of the organisms involved and on the thickness of snow cover, which determines how dynamic and extreme are the exposure conditions. The observed species-specific reactions to extreme and fluctuating conditions may help to explain the different structures of microbial communities inhabiting the range of environments defined by the ice-snow system and provide model organisms and research directions for future work to evaluate potential activity or exchanges with other components of the system.

Modeling white sturgeon movement in a reservoir: The effect of water quality and sturgeon density

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, A.B.; Jager, H.I.; Myers, R.

2003-01-01

We developed a movement model to examine the distribution and survival of white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) in a reservoir subject to large spatial and temporal variation in dissolved oxygen and temperature. Temperature and dissolved oxygen were simulated by a CE-QUAL-W2 model of Brownlee Reservoir, Idaho for a typical wet, normal, and dry hydrologic year. We compared current water quality conditions to scenarios with reduced nutrient inputs to the reservoir. White sturgeon habitat quality was modeled as a function of temperature, dissolved oxygen and, in some cases, suitability for foraging and depth. We assigned a quality index to each cell along the bottom of the reservoir. The model simulated two aspects of daily movement. Advective movement simulated the tendency for animals to move toward areas with high habitat quality, and diffusion simulated density dependent movement away from areas with high sturgeon density in areas with non-lethal habitat conditions. Mortality resulted when sturgeon were unable to leave areas with lethal temperature or dissolved oxygen conditions. Water quality was highest in winter and early spring and lowest in mid to late summer. Limiting nutrient inputs reduced the area of Brownlee Reservoir with lethal conditions for sturgeon and raised the average habitat suitability throughout the reservoir. Without movement, simulated white sturgeon survival ranged between 45 and 89%. Allowing movement raised the predicted survival of sturgeon under all conditions to above 90% as sturgeon avoided areas with low habitat quality. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of climate manipulations on the herbivory of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum (Müller, 1774) (Pulmonata: Agriolimacidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Danasoury, H.; Iglesias-Piñeiro, J.; Córdoba, M.

2016-10-01

The pestiferous status of the terrestrial slug Deroceras reticulatum and the strong dependence of its biology and ecology on climatic factors have driven research on the potential responses of the slug to predicted scenarios of climate change. Here, we report two short-term experiments performed outdoors, under seminatural conditions, to assess the behavioural response of D. reticulatum to different climate manipulations in terms of herbivory, by measuring over 7 days the damage inflicted by slug populations to lettuce seedlings. The climate manipulations tested emulate predicted climatic conditions for northwest Spain, specifically winter warming and increased summer rainfall, in contrast respectively with normal winter conditions and summer without rain conditions. In a winter experiment, we compared a normal winter treatment with a winter warming treatment; with respect to the normal winter treatment, the winter warming treatment was characterised by higher temperature, lower relative humidity and the absence of rainfall. In a summer experiment, we compared a summer drought treatment with an increased summer rainfall treatment; with respect to the summer drought treatment, the increased summer rainfall treatment was characterised by the presence of rainfall, while the conditions of temperature and relative humidity were similar in both treatments. Neither winter warming nor increased summer rainfall did lead to a significant increase on the number of seedlings damaged by the slugs. However, with both treatments, we found a moderate increase on the amount of damage suffered by the seedlings. The results are discussed in the context of the potential responses of D. reticulatum to future climatic conditions.

The effect of climate manipulations on the herbivory of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum (Müller, 1774) (Pulmonata: Agriolimacidae).

PubMed

El-Danasoury, H; Iglesias-Piñeiro, J; Córdoba, M

2016-10-01

The pestiferous status of the terrestrial slug Deroceras reticulatum and the strong dependence of its biology and ecology on climatic factors have driven research on the potential responses of the slug to predicted scenarios of climate change. Here, we report two short-term experiments performed outdoors, under seminatural conditions, to assess the behavioural response of D. reticulatum to different climate manipulations in terms of herbivory, by measuring over 7 days the damage inflicted by slug populations to lettuce seedlings. The climate manipulations tested emulate predicted climatic conditions for northwest Spain, specifically winter warming and increased summer rainfall, in contrast respectively with normal winter conditions and summer without rain conditions. In a winter experiment, we compared a normal winter treatment with a winter warming treatment; with respect to the normal winter treatment, the winter warming treatment was characterised by higher temperature, lower relative humidity and the absence of rainfall. In a summer experiment, we compared a summer drought treatment with an increased summer rainfall treatment; with respect to the summer drought treatment, the increased summer rainfall treatment was characterised by the presence of rainfall, while the conditions of temperature and relative humidity were similar in both treatments. Neither winter warming nor increased summer rainfall did lead to a significant increase on the number of seedlings damaged by the slugs. However, with both treatments, we found a moderate increase on the amount of damage suffered by the seedlings. The results are discussed in the context of the potential responses of D. reticulatum to future climatic conditions.

Assessing factors affecting the thermal properties of a passive thermal refuge using three-dimensional hydrodynamic flow and transport modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Decker, Jeremy D.; Swain, Eric D.; Stith, Bradley M.; Langtimm, Catherine A.

2013-01-01

Everglades restoration activities may cause changes to temperature and salinity stratification at the Port of the Islands (POI) marina, which could affect its suitability as a cold weather refuge for manatees. To better understand how the Picayune Strand Restoration Project (PSRP) may alter this important resource in Collier County in southwestern Florida, the USGS has developed a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for the marina and canal system at POI. Empirical data suggest that manatees aggregate at the site during winter because of thermal inversions that provide warmer water near the bottom that appears to only occur in the presence of salinity stratification. To study these phenomena, the environmental fluid dynamics code simulator was used to represent temperature and salinity transport within POI. Boundary inputs were generated using a larger two-dimensional model constructed with the flow and transport in a linked overland-aquifer density-dependent system simulator. Model results for a representative winter period match observed trends in salinity and temperature fluctuations and produce temperature inversions similar to observed values. Modified boundary conditions, representing proposed PSRP alterations, were also tested to examine the possible effect on the salinity stratification and temperature inversion within POI. Results show that during some periods, salinity stratification is reduced resulting in a subsequent reduction in temperature inversion compared with the existing conditions simulation. This may have an effect on POI’s suitability as a passive thermal refuge for manatees and other temperature-sensitive species. Additional testing was completed to determine the important physical relationships affecting POI’s suitability as a refuge.

Simulation-based optimization framework for reuse of agricultural drainage water in irrigation.

PubMed

Allam, A; Tawfik, A; Yoshimura, C; Fleifle, A

2016-05-01

A simulation-based optimization framework for agricultural drainage water (ADW) reuse has been developed through the integration of a water quality model (QUAL2Kw) and a genetic algorithm. This framework was applied to the Gharbia drain in the Nile Delta, Egypt, in summer and winter 2012. First, the water quantity and quality of the drain was simulated using the QUAL2Kw model. Second, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation were performed to assess QUAL2Kw's performance and to identify the most critical variables for determination of water quality, respectively. Finally, a genetic algorithm was applied to maximize the total reuse quantity from seven reuse locations with the condition not to violate the standards for using mixed water in irrigation. The water quality simulations showed that organic matter concentrations are critical management variables in the Gharbia drain. The uncertainty analysis showed the reliability of QUAL2Kw to simulate water quality and quantity along the drain. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis showed that the 5-day biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, total dissolved solids, total nitrogen and total phosphorous are highly sensitive to point source flow and quality. Additionally, the optimization results revealed that the reuse quantities of ADW can reach 36.3% and 40.4% of the available ADW in the drain during summer and winter, respectively. These quantities meet 30.8% and 29.1% of the drainage basin requirements for fresh irrigation water in the respective seasons. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Choosing the best cropping systems to target pleiotropic effects when managing single-gene herbicide resistance in grass weeds. A blackgrass simulation study.

PubMed

Colbach, Nathalie; Chauvel, Bruno; Darmency, Henri; Délye, Christophe; Le Corre, Valérie

2016-10-01

Managing herbicide-resistant weeds is becoming increasingly difficult. Here we adapted the weed dynamics model AlomySys to account for experimentally measured fitness costs linked to mutants of target-site resistance to acetyl-coenzyme A carboxylase (ACCase)-inhibiting herbicides in Alopecurus myosuroides. We ran simulations to test how effectively cultural practices manage resistance. Simulations of an oilseed rape/winter wheat/winter barley rotation showed that, when replacing one of the seven applied herbicides with an ACCase-inhibiting one, resistant mutants exceeded 1 plant m(-2) , with a probability of 40%, after an average of 18 years. This threshold was always exceeded when three or four ACCase-inhibiting herbicides were used, after an average of 8 and 6 years respectively. With reduced herbicide rates or suboptimal spraying conditions, resistance occurred 1-3 years earlier in 50% of simulations. Adding spring pea to the rotation or yearly mouldboard ploughing delayed resistance indefinitely in 90 and 60% of simulations respectively. Ploughing also modified the genetic composition of the resistant population by selecting a previously rare mutant that presented improved pre-emergent growth. The prevalence of the mutations was influenced more by their associated fitness cost or benefit than by the number of ACCase-inhibiting herbicides to which they conferred resistance. Simulations allowed us to rank weed management practices and suggest that pleiotropic effects are extremely important for understanding the frequency of herbicide resistance in the population. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Viability of litter-stored Pinus taeda L. seeds after simulated prescribed winter burns

Treesearch

Michael D. Cain; Michael G. Shelton

1998-01-01

Stratified loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) seeds were placed at three depths in a reconstructed forest floor and subjected to simulated prescribed winter burns. Within the forest floor, pine seeds were placed at the L/upper-F interface, upper-F/lower-F interface, and lower-F/mineral-soil interface. Wind was generated by electric box-fans. Seeds that...

Viability of litter-stored Quercus falcata Michx. acorns after simulated prescribed winter burns

Treesearch

Michael D. Cain; Michael G. Shelton

1998-01-01

Partially stratified (11 days) southern red oak (Quercus falcata Michx.) acorns were placed at three depths in a reconstructed forest floor and subjected to simulated prescribed winter burns. Within the forest floor, acorns were placed within the L layer, at the upper-F/ lower-F interface, and at the lower-F/mineral-soil interface. Winds for a...

Model simulations of fungal spore distribution over the Indian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ansari, Tabish U.; Valsan, Aswathy E.; Ojha, N.; Ravikrishna, R.; Narasimhan, Balaji; Gunthe, Sachin S.

2015-12-01

Fungal spores play important role in the health of humans, animals, and plants by constituting a class of the primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs). Additionally, these could mediate the hydrological cycle by acting as nuclei for ice and cloud formation (IN and CCN respectively). Various processes in the biosphere and the variations in the meteorological conditions control the releasing mechanism of spores through active wet and dry discharge. In the present paper, we simulate the concentration of fungal spores over the Indian region during three distinct meteorological seasons by combining a numerical model (WRF-Chem) with the fungal spore emissions based on land-use type. Maiden high-resolution regional simulations revealed large spatial gradient and strong seasonal dependence in the concentration of fungal spores over the Indian region. The fungal spore concentrations are found to be the highest during winter (0-70 μg m-3 in December), moderately higher during summer (0-35 μg m-3 in May) and lowest during the monsoon (0-25 μg m-3 in July). The elevated concentrations during winter are attributed to the shallower boundary layer trapping the emitted fungal spores in smaller volume. In contrast, the deeper boundary layer mixing in May and stronger monsoonal-convection in July distribute the fungal spores throughout the lower troposphere (∼5 km). We suggest that the higher fungal spore concentrations during winter could have potential health impacts. While, stronger vertical mixing could enable fungal spores to influence the cloud formation during summer and monsoon. Our study provides the first information about the distribution and seasonal variation of fungal spores over the densely populated and observationally sparse Indian region.

Aedes albopictus in Rome: results and perspectives after 10 years of monitoring.

PubMed

Severini, F; Di Luca, M; Toma, L; Romi, R

2008-06-01

In 1997, Aedes albopictus (Skuse 1894) was detected in Rome in two opposite areas of the city. In the following 2 years, the species quickly spread. In 2000, scattered foci of the species were reported in the whole urban area and in the outskirts of the capital city. In Rome, Ae. albopictus seems to have found optimal environmental conditions to proliferate and to overwinter through and without diapausing eggs. In ten years Ae. albopictus has colonized the whole urban area through three phases: first massive spread, following maintenance of infestation, and colonization of alternative winter breeding sites with favorable climatic conditions. Data collected during the 2007 show that rainfall is no longer the most important factor for the development of the species, with respect to the past. In fact Ae. albopictus probably has found new alternative larval breeding sites through the colonization of small water collections refilled periodically by human activities. During 2007-2008 winter season, in order to evaluate the species adaptability, a study of eggs hatching and length of larval cycle at low temperatures, was carried out in laboratory and in simulated field conditions. Data and results are showed and discussed also by the light of existing literature.

Hindcasting and forecasting of climatology for Gilbert Bay, Labrador: A marine protected area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Best, Sara J.

Gilbert Bay is a marine protected area (MPA) on the southeastern coast of Labrador, Canada. The MPA was created to conserve a genetically distinctive population of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua. Future climate change in the region is expected to have an impact on the coastal marine environment and local communities in the future. This thesis presents results from a hindcast and forecasts study of physical oceanographic conditions for Gilbert Bay. The first section of this thesis examines the interannual variability in atmospheric and physical oceanographic characteristics of Gilbert Bay over the period 1949-2006. The seasonal and interannual variability of the near surface atmospheric parameters are described. Seawater temperature, salinity and sea-ice thickness in winter are simulated with a physical ocean model, the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). The results of the hindcast model suggest that the atmospheric interannual variability of the Gilbert Bay region is linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A warming trend observed in the subpolar North Atlantic was influenced by the local climate of coastal Labrador during the recent decade of 1995-2005. The second section of this thesis presents a model forecast of the impact of climate change on the physical conditions within Gilbert Bay over the next century. Climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment and the US Climate Change Science Program Project (US CCSP), specifically the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), were used. Atmospheric parameters and related changes in seawater temperature, salinity and sea-ice thickness in winter for three SRES are simulated with the GOTM, and are then compared to the hindcast study results. The results suggest that the water column during future winters will become warmer in the second half of the 21st century. In the summer the atmosphere will be warmer and more humid. Cloudiness and precipitation are expected to increase. This will have an impact on the vertical stratification of the water column. The surface mixed layer is expected to become warmer, fresher and much shallower than seen in the past. The stratification below the seasonal thermocline will weaken and vertical mixing will intensify. A significant change in surface sea-ice coverage is also suggested by the forecast. Continuing reduction in sea-ice formation during the winter months as highlighted by the hindcast study is expected to affect living conditions of the neighbouring coastal communities around the bay, specifically by increasing the danger of travelling across the bay. A warming Gilbert Bay ecosystem may be favourable for cod growth, but reduced sea-ice formation during the winter months increases the danger of travelling across the bay by snowmobile.

Modeling Study of Winter Ozone Pollution in Uintah Basin: A Case Study of January 15-31 in 2013 Using WRF-CAMx.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, T. T.; Tran, H. N. Q.; Mansfield, M. L.; Lyman, S. N.

2014-12-01

Since elevated ozone concentrations (>75ppb) were first detected in Uintah Basin in 2009, winter ozone pollution in Uintah Basin (Eastern Utah) has drawn researchers' attention in this region. Joint research efforts among several research groups have been undertaken to study this topic (UBOS, 2012; 2013; 2014); yet this phenomenon is still not completely understood. For example, modeling studies still face problems such as errors in emission inventories and inappropriate meteorological and chemical modeling parameterizations for winter conditions in the Uintah Basin. In this study, the SMOKE-WRF-CAMx model platform (grid resolution of 1.3km) was used to simulate ozone formation in the basin during Jan 15-31 in 2013 to compare the impacts of current bottom-up versus top-down emission inventories on modeled ozone concentrations. Different VOC emission profiles for oil and gas emissions that have been applied in various studies were also examined in CAMx and compared with available monitoring data to determine the representative profile for future studies.

Factors Contributing to Extremely Wet Winters in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jong, B. T.; Ting, M.; Seager, R.

2015-12-01

As California continues to battle the severe drought conditions, it becomes increasingly important to understand the atmospheric and oceanic conditions that may possible break this ongoing drought. Is a strong El Niño, such as the 2015/16 event, enough to break the drought? We examine in this study the possible factors that lead to extremely wet winters (the wettest 15%) in both Northern and Southern CA. The relationships between CA winter precipitation and sea surface temperature conditions in the Pacific, as well as atmospheric circulation are determined by using observational and reanalysis data from 1901 to 2010. One of the key features of the atmospheric circulation is the location of the low pressure anomaly, whether caused by El Niño or other factors. If the anomaly locates right off the US west coast, CA tends to be wet, and vice versa. Furthermore, the duration of the circulation anomaly seems to be crucial. During wet El Niño winters, the peak of the circulation anomaly is in the late winter, whereas, during non-wet El Niño winters, the peak of the anomaly is in the early winter. Thus, an El Niño that can last to late winter is more likely to cause an extremely wet winter in the state. The intensity of El Niño is another critical factor. In the wettest tercile late winter, a strong El Niño can bring about 200% of climatological precipitation to CA, while a weak El Niño can bring only less than 150% of climatology. In combination, only a strong El Niño that can last to late winter may make extremely wet winters very likely in CA. To explore the other factors, composites of circulation anomaly during wet & non-El Niño winters were also analyzed. The results show that a zonally propagating wave train, originating from western North Pacific, contributes to low pressure center and wet winter conditions in the state. Thus, coastal low pressure anomaly is a consistent feature for an extremely wet winters in California, but the origin of forcing can come from both tropics and mid-latitude.

Impact of wastewater treatment configuration and seasonal conditions on thyroid hormone disruption and stress effects in Rana catesbeiana tailfin.

PubMed

Wojnarowicz, Pola; Ogunlaja, Olumuyiwa O; Xia, Chen; Parker, Wayne J; Helbing, Caren C

2013-12-03

Improved endocrine disrupting compound (EDC) removal is desirable in municipal wastewater treatment plants (MWWTPs) although increased removal does not always translate into reduced biological activity. Suitable methods for determining reduction in biological activity of effluents are needed. In order to determine which MWWTPs are the most effective at removing EDC activities, we operated three configurations of pilot sized biological reactors (conventional activated sludge, CAS; nitrifying activated sludge, NAS; and biological nutrient removal, BNR) receiving the same influent under simulated winter and summer conditions. As frogs are model organisms for the study of thyroid hormone (TH) action, we used the North American species Rana catesbeiana in a cultured tadpole tailfin (C-fin) assay to compare the effluents. TH-responsive (thyroid hormone receptors alpha (thra) and beta (thrb)) and stress-responsive (superoxide dismutase, catalase, and heat shock protein 30) mRNA transcript levels were examined. Effluents infrequently perturbed stress-responsive transcript abundance but thra/thrb levels were significantly altered. In winter conditions, CAS caused frequent TH perturbations while BNR caused none. In summer conditions, however, BNR caused substantial TH perturbations while CAS caused few. Our findings contrast other studies of seasonal variations of EDC removal and accentuate the importance of utilizing appropriate biological readouts for assessing EDC activities.

Simulation of air quality and operational cost to ventilate swine farrowing facilities in Midwest U.S. during winter

PubMed Central

Park, Jae Hong; Peters, Thomas M.; Altmaier, Ralph; Jones, Samuel M.; Gassman, Richard; Anthony, T. Renée

2017-01-01

We have developed a time-dependent simulation model to estimate in-room concentrations of multiple contaminants [ammonia (NH3), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and dust] as a function of increased ventilation with filtered recirculation for swine farrowing facilities. Energy and mass balance equations were used to simulate the indoor air quality (IAQ) and operational cost for a variety of ventilation conditions over a 3-month winter period for a facility located in the Midwest U.S., using simplified and real-time production parameters, comparing results to field data. A revised model was improved by minimizing the sum of squared errors (SSE) between modeled and measured NH3 and CO2. After optimizing NH3 and CO2, other IAQ results from the simulation were compared to field measurements using linear regression. For NH3, the coefficient of determination (R2) for simulation results and field measurements improved from 0.02 with the original model to 0.37 with the new model. For CO2, the R2 for simulation results and field measurements was 0.49 with the new model. When the makeup air was matched to hallway air CO2 concentrations (1,500 ppm), simulation results showed the smallest SSE. With the new model, the R2 for other contaminants were 0.34 for inhalable dust, 0.36 for respirable dust, and 0.26 for CO. Operation of the air cleaner decreased inhalable dust by 35% and respirable dust concentrations by 33%, while having no effect on NH3, CO2, in agreement with field data, and increasing operational cost by $860 (58%) for the three-month period. PMID:28775911

Evaluation of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with temperature extremes in the NARCCAP regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.; Waliser, Duane E.; Lee, Huikyo; Neelin, J. David; Lintner, Benjamin R.; McGinnis, Seth; Mearns, Linda O.; Kim, Jinwon

2015-12-01

Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with temperature extremes are evaluated in a suite of regional climate model (RCM) simulations contributing to the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. LSMPs are characterized through composites of surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies concurrent with extreme temperature days. Six of the seventeen RCM simulations are driven by boundary conditions from reanalysis while the other eleven are driven by one of four global climate models (GCMs). Four illustrative case studies are analyzed in detail. Model fidelity in LSMP spatial representation is high for cold winter extremes near Chicago. Winter warm extremes are captured by most RCMs in northern California, with some notable exceptions. Model fidelity is lower for cool summer days near Houston and extreme summer heat events in the Ohio Valley. Physical interpretation of these patterns and identification of well-simulated cases, such as for Chicago, boosts confidence in the ability of these models to simulate days in the tails of the temperature distribution. Results appear consistent with the expectation that the ability of an RCM to reproduce a realistically shaped frequency distribution for temperature, especially at the tails, is related to its fidelity in simulating LMSPs. Each ensemble member is ranked for its ability to reproduce LSMPs associated with observed warm and cold extremes, identifying systematically high performing RCMs and the GCMs that provide superior boundary forcing. The methodology developed here provides a framework for identifying regions where further process-based evaluation would improve the understanding of simulation error and help guide future model improvement and downscaling efforts.

Multi-Frequency Investigation into Scattering from Vegetation over the Growth Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lang, R. H.; Kurum, M.; O'Neill, P. E.; Joseph, A. T.; Deshpande, M. D.; Cosh, M. H.

2016-01-01

In this investigation, we aim to collect and use time-series multi-frequency microwave data over winter wheat during entire growth cycle to characterize vegetation dynamics and to quantify its effects on soil moisture retrievals. We plan to incorporate C-band radar and VHF receiver within the existing L-band radarradiometer system called ComRAD (SMAPs ground based simulator). With C-bands ability to sense vegetation details and VHFs root-zone soil moisture within ComRADs footprint, we will be able to test our discrete scatterer vegetation models and parameters at various surface conditions. The purpose of this study is to determine optical depth and effective scattering albedo of vegetation of a given type (i.e. winter wheat) at various stages of growth that are need to refine soil moisture retrieval algorithms being developed for the SMAP mission.

Winter is coming: hibernation reverses the outcome of sperm competition in a fly.

PubMed

Giraldo-Perez, P; Herrera, P; Campbell, A; Taylor, M L; Skeats, A; Aggio, R; Wedell, N; Price, T A R

2016-02-01

Sperm commonly compete within females to fertilize ova, but research has focused on short-term sperm storage: sperm that are maintained in a female for only a few days or weeks before use. In nature, females of many species store sperm for months or years, often during periods of environmental stress, such as cold winters. Here we examine the outcome of sperm competition in the fruit fly Drosophila pseudoobscura, simulating the conditions in which females survive winter. We mated females to two males and then stored the female for up to 120 days at 4°C. We found that the outcome of sperm competition was consistent when sperm from two males was stored for 0, 1 or 30 days, with the last male to mate fathering most of the offspring. However, when females were stored in the cold for 120 days, the last male to mate fathered less than 5% of the offspring. Moreover, when sperm were stored long term the first male fathered almost all offspring even when he carried a meiotic driving sex chromosome that drastically reduces sperm competitive success under short-term storage conditions. This suggests that long-term sperm storage can radically alter the outcome of sperm competition. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society for Evolutionary Biology.

Dehydration, denitrification and ozone loss during the Arctic winter 2015/2016: Simulations with the Chemistry-Climate Model EMAC and comparison to Aura/MLS and GLORIA observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosrawi, Farahnaz; Kirner, Oliver; Sinnhuber, Bjoern-Martin; Johansson, Sören; Höpfner, Michael; Santee, Michelle L.; Manney, Gloria; Froidevaux, Lucien; Ungermann, Jörn; Preusse, Peter; Friedl-Vallon, Felix; Ruhnke, Roland; Woiwode, Wolfgang; Oelhaf, Hermann; Braesicke, Peter

2017-04-01

The Arctic winter 2015/2016 has been one of the coldest stratospheric winters in recent years. A stable vortex formed already in early December and the early winter has been exceptionally cold. Cold pool temperatures dropped below the Nitric Acid Trihydrate (NAT) existence temperature, thus allowing Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) to form. The low temperatures in the polar stratosphere persisted until early March allowing chlorine activation and catalytic ozone destruction. Satellite observations indicate that sedimentation of PSC particles have led to denitrification as well as dehydration of stratospheric layers. Nudged model simulations of the Arctic winter 2015/2016 were performed with the atmospheric chemistry-climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) for the POLSTRACC (Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate) campaign. POLSTRACC was a HALO mission (High Altitude and LOng Range Research Aircraft) aiming on the investigation of the structure, composition and evolution of the Arctic Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere (UTLS). The chemical and physical processes involved in Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion, transport and mixing processes in the UTLS at high latitudes, polar stratospheric clouds as well as cirrus clouds were investigated. In this presentation, an overview of the chemistry and dynamics of the Arctic winter 2015/2016 as simulated with EMAC will be given. Chemical-dynamical processes such as denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss will be investigated. Comparisons to satellite observations by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS) as well as to airborne measurements with the Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) performed onboard of HALO during the POLSTRACC campaign show that the EMAC simulations are in good agreement with observations (differences generally within ±20%). However, larger differences between model and simulations are found e.g. in the areas of denitrification. Both, model simulations and observation show that in 2015/2016 ozone loss was quite strong, but not as strong as in 2010/2011 while denitrification and dehydration were so far the strongest in the Arctic stratosphere.

On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dawei; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R.

2017-04-01

This study aims to understand the relative roles of external forcing versus internal climate variability in causing the observed Barents Sea winter sea ice extent (SIE) decline since 1979. We identify major discrepancies in the spatial patterns of winter Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration trends over the satellite period between observations and CMIP5 multi-model mean externally forced response. The CMIP5 externally forced decline in Barents Sea winter SIE is much weaker than that observed. Across CMIP5 ensemble members, March Barents Sea SIE trends have little correlation with global mean surface air temperature trends, but are strongly anti-correlated with trends in Atlantic heat transport across the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Further comparison with control simulations from coupled climate models suggests that enhanced Atlantic heat transport across the BSO associated with regional internal variability may have played a leading role in the observed decline in winter Barents Sea SIE since 1979.

Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing.

PubMed

Bintanja, R; Krikken, F

2016-12-02

Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-the-art global climate model in idealized seasonal forcing simulations to show that Arctic warming (especially in winter) and sea ice decline are particularly sensitive to radiative forcing in spring, during which the energy is effectively 'absorbed' by the ocean (through sea ice melt and ocean warming, amplified by the ice-albedo feedback) and consequently released to the lower atmosphere in autumn and winter, mainly along the sea ice periphery. In contrast, winter radiative forcing causes a more uniform response centered over the Arctic Ocean. This finding suggests that intermodel differences in simulated Arctic (winter) warming can to a considerable degree be attributed to model uncertainties in Arctic radiative fluxes, which peak in summer.

Intercontinental gene flow among western arctic populations of lesser snow geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shorey, Rainy I.; Scribner, K.T.; Kanefsky, Jeannette; Samuel, M.D.; Libants, S.V.

2011-01-01

Quantifying the spatial genetic structure of highly vagile species of birds is important in predicting their degree of population demographic and genetic independence during changing environmental conditions, and in assessing their abundance and distribution. In the western Arctic, Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) provide an example useful for evaluating spatial population genetic structure and the relative contribution of male and female philopatry to breeding and wintering locales. We analyzed biparentally inherited microsatellite loci and maternally inherited mtDNA sequences from geese breeding at Wrangel Island (Russia) and Banks Island (Canada) to estimate gene flow among populations whose geographic overlap during breeding and winter differ. Significant differences in the frequencies of mtDNA haplotypes contrast with the homogeneity of allele frequencies for microsatellite loci. Coalescence simulations revealed high variability and asymmetry between males and females in rates and direction of gene flow between populations. Our results highlight the importance of wintering areas to demographic independence and spatial genetic structure of these populations. Male-mediated gene flow among the populations on northern Wrangel Island, southern Wrangel Island, and Banks Island has been substantial. A high rate of female-mediated gene flow from southern Wrangel Island to Banks Island suggests that population exchange can be achieved when populations winter in a common area. Conversely, when birds from different breeding populations do not share a common wintering area, the probability of population exchange is likely to be dramatically reduced. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2011.

Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-Century Perspective from Paleoclimatic Model-Data Comparisons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Griffin, Daniel; Cook, Benjamin I.

2015-01-01

The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25 deg W-107.75 deg W, 30 deg N-35.25 deg N-NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.

Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fréjaville, Thibaut; Curt, Thomas

2017-03-01

Human activities have altered fire regimes for millennia by suppressing or enhancing natural fire activity. However, whether these anthropogenic pressures on fire activity have exceeded and will surpass climate forcing still remains uncertain. We tested if, how and the extent to which seasonal fire activity in southern France has recently (1976-2009) deviated from climate-expected trends. The latter were simulated using an ensemble of detrended fire-climate models. We found both seasonal and regional contrasts in climatic effects through a mixture of drought-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes. Dry contemporary conditions chiefly drove fire frequency and burned area, although higher fire activity was related to wetter conditions in the last three years. Surprisingly, the relative importance of preceding wet conditions was higher in winter than in summer, illustrating the strong potential dependency of regional fire-climate relationships on the human use and control of fires. In the Mediterranean mountains, warm winters and springs favour extensive fires in the following dry summer. These results highlight that increasing dryness with climate change could have antagonistic effects on fire regime by leading to larger fires in summer (moisture-limited), but lower fire activity in winter (fuel-limited fire regime). Furthermore, fire trends have significantly diverged from climatic expectations, with a strong negative alteration in fire activity in the Mediterranean lowlands and the summer burned area in the mountains. In contrast, alteration of winter fire frequency in the Mediterranean and Temperate mountains has shifted from positive to negative (or null) trends during the mid-1990s, a period when fire suppression policy underwent major revisions. Our findings demonstrate that changes in land-use and fire suppression policy have probably exceeded the strength of climate change effects on changing fire regime in southern Europe, making regional predictions of future fires highly challenging.

Polar Ozone Loss Rates: Comparison Of Match Observations With Simulations Of 3-D Chemical Transport Model And Box Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathi, O. P.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Lefevre, F.; Marchand, M.; Pazmino, A.; Hauchecorne, A.

2005-12-01

Model simulations of ozone loss rates during recent arctic and Antarctic winters are compared with the observed ozone loss rates from the match technique. Arctic winters 1994/1995, 1999/2000, 2002/2003 and the Antarctic winter 2003 were considered for the analysis. We use a high resolution chemical transport model MIMOSA-CHIM and REPROBUS box model for the calculation of ozone loss rates. Trajectory model calculations show that the ozone loss rates are dependent on the initialization fields. On the one hand when chemical fields are initialized by UCAM (University of Cambridge SLIMCAT model simulated fields) the loss rates were underestimated by a factor of two whereas on the other hand when it is initialized by UL (University of Leeds) fields the model loss rates are in a very good agreement with match loss rates at lower levels. The study shows a very good agreement between MIMOSA-CHIM simulation and match observation in 1999/2000 winter at both levels, 450 and 500 K, except slight underestimation in March at 500 K. But in January we have a very good agreement. This is also true for 1994/1995 when we consider simulated ozone loss rate in view of the ECMWF wind deficiency assuming that match observations were not made on isolated trajectories. Sensitivity tests, by changing JCl2O2 value, particle number density and heating rates, performed for the arctic winter 1999/2000 shows that we need to improve our understanding of particle number density and heating rate calculation mechanism. Burkholder JCl2O2 has improved the comparison of MIMOSA-CHIM model results with observations (Tripathi et al., 2005). In the same study the comparison results were shown to improved by changing heating rates and number density through NAT particle sedimentation.

Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, Monika J.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Feser, Frauke

2018-03-01

The Mediterranean region, located in the transition zone between the dry subtropical and wet European mid-latitude climate, is very sensitive to changes in the global mean climate state. Projecting future changes of the Mediterranean hydroclimate under global warming therefore requires dynamic climate models to reproduce the main mechanisms controlling regional hydroclimate with sufficiently high resolution to realistically simulate climate extremes. To assess future winter precipitation changes in the Mediterranean region we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution general circulation model for control simulations with pre-industrial greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations which are compared to future scenario simulations. Here we show that the coupled model is able to reliably simulate the large-scale winter circulation, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eastern Atlantic patterns of variability, and its associated impacts on the mean Mediterranean hydroclimate. The model also realistically reproduces the regional features of daily heavy rainfall, which are absent in lower-resolution simulations. A five-member future projection ensemble, which assumes comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) until 2100, indicates a strong winter decline in Mediterranean precipitation for the coming decades. Consistent with dynamical and thermodynamical consequences of a warming atmosphere, derived changes feature a distinct bipolar behavior, i.e. wetting in the north—and drying in the south. Changes are most pronounced over the northwest African coast, where the projected winter precipitation decline reaches 40% of present values. Despite a decrease in mean precipitation, heavy rainfall indices show drastic increases across most of the Mediterranean, except the North African coast, which is under the strong influence of the cold Canary Current.

Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

PubMed

Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

PubMed Central

Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026

Aerial survey methodology for bison population estimation in Yellowstone National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Steven C.

2002-01-01

I developed aerial survey methods for statistically rigorous bison population estimation in Yellowstone National Park to support sound resource management decisions and to understand bison ecology. Survey protocols, data recording procedures, a geographic framework, and seasonal stratifications were based on field observations from February 1998-September 2000. The reliability of this framework and strata were tested with long-term data from 1970-1997. I simulated different sample survey designs and compared them to high-effort censuses of well-defined large areas to evaluate effort, precision, and bias. Sample survey designs require much effort and extensive information on the current spatial distribution of bison and therefore do not offer any substantial reduction in time and effort over censuses. I conducted concurrent ground surveys, or 'double sampling' to estimate detection probability during aerial surveys. Group size distribution and habitat strongly affected detection probability. In winter, 75% of the groups and 92% of individual bison were detected on average from aircraft, while in summer, 79% of groups and 97% of individual bison were detected. I also used photography to quantify the bias due to counting large groups of bison accurately and found that undercounting increased with group size and could reach 15%. I compared survey conditions between seasons and identified optimal time windows for conducting surveys in both winter and summer. These windows account for the habitats and total area bison occupy, and group size distribution. Bison became increasingly scattered over the Yellowstone region in smaller groups and more occupied unfavorable habitats as winter progressed. Therefore, the best conditions for winter surveys occur early in the season (Dec-Jan). In summer, bison were most spatially aggregated and occurred in the largest groups by early August. Low variability between surveys and high detection probability provide population estimates with an overall coefficient of variation of approximately 8% and have high power for detecting trends in population change. I demonstrated how population estimates from winter and summer can be integrated into a comprehensive monitoring program to estimate annual growth rates, overall winter mortality, and an index of calf production, requiring about 30 hours of flight per year.

Arctic sea ice decline contributes to thinning lake ice trend in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexeev, Vladimir; Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Cai, Lei

2016-01-01

Field measurements, satellite observations, and models document a thinning trend in seasonal Arctic lake ice growth, causing a shift from bedfast to floating ice conditions. September sea ice concentrations in the Arctic Ocean since 1991 correlate well (r = +0.69,p < 0.001) to this lake regime shift. To understand how and to what extent sea ice affects lakes, we conducted model experiments to simulate winters with years of high (1991/92) and low (2007/08) sea ice extent for which we also had field measurements and satellite imagery characterizing lake ice conditions. A lake ice growth model forced with Weather Research and Forecasting model output produced a 7% decrease in lake ice growth when 2007/08 sea ice was imposed on 1991/92 climatology and a 9% increase in lake ice growth for the opposing experiment. Here, we clearly link early winter 'ocean-effect' snowfall and warming to reduced lake ice growth. Future reductions in sea ice extent will alter hydrological, biogeochemical, and habitat functioning of Arctic lakes and cause sub-lake permafrost thaw.

Evaluation of Winter Operational Runway Friction Measurement Equipment, Procedures, and Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

This document produced by the FAA/Industry Winter Runway Friction Measurement and Reporting Working Group, is designed to provide an overview of current information on the present guidance, practices, and procedures for reporting runway pavement surface conditions during winter operations at airports. It contains recommendations on the desirability of providing the best procedural consistency and standardization and discusses the available means to implement the guidance that will result in improved aviation safety at airports during hazardous winter conditions.

Ensemble of European regional climate simulations for the winter of 2013 and 2014 from HadAM3P-RM3P

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaller, Nathalie; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Massey, Neil R.; Bowery, Andy; Miller, Jonathan; Wilson, Simon; Wallom, David C. H.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

2018-04-01

Large data sets used to study the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the 2013/14 floods in the UK are provided. The data consist of perturbed initial conditions simulations using the Weather@Home regional climate modelling framework. Two different base conditions, Actual, including atmospheric conditions (anthropogenic greenhouse gases and human induced aerosols) as at present and Natural, with these forcings all removed are available. The data set is made up of 13 different ensembles (2 actual and 11 natural) with each having more than 7500 members. The data is available as NetCDF V3 files representing monthly data within the period of interest (1st Dec 2013 to 15th February 2014) for both a specified European region at a 50 km horizontal resolution and globally at N96 resolution. The data is stored within the UK Natural and Environmental Research Council Centre for Environmental Data Analysis repository.

Impacts of Climate Change on Regulated Streamflow, Hydrologic Extremes, Hydropower Production, and Sediment Discharge in the Skagit River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Se-Yeun; Hamlet, Alan F.; Grossman, Eric E.

2016-01-01

Previous studies have shown that the impacts of climate change on the hydrologic response of the Skagit River are likely to be substantial under natural (i.e. unregulated) conditions. To assess the combined effects of changing natural flow and dam operations that determine impacts to regulated flow, a new integrated daily-time-step reservoir operations model was constructed for the Skagit River Basin. The model was used to simulate current reservoir operating policies for historical flow conditions and for projected flows for the 2040s (2030–2059) and 2080s (2070–2099). The results show that climate change is likely to cause substantial seasonal changes in both natural and regulated flow, with more flow in the winter and spring, and less in summer. Hydropower generation in the basin follows these trends, increasing (+ 19%) in the winter/ spring, and decreasing (- 29%) in the summer by the 2080s. The regulated 100-year flood is projected to increase by 23% by the 2040s and 49% by the 2080s. Peak winter sediment loading in December is projected to increase by 335% by the 2080s in response to increasing winter flows, and average annual sediment loading increases from 2.3 to 5.8 teragrams (+ 149%) per year by the 2080s. Regulated extreme low flows (7Q10) are projected to decrease by about 30% by the 2080s, but remain well above natural low flows. Both current and proposed alternative flood control operations are shown to be largely ineffective in mitigating increasing flood risks in the lower Skagit due to the distribution of flow in the basin during floods.

A one-dimensional, steady-state, dissolved-oxygen model and waste-load assimilation study for Sand Creek, Decatur County, Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilber, William G.; Crawford, Charles G.; Peters, James G.

1979-01-01

A digital model calibrated to conditions in Sand Creek near Greensburg, Ind., was used to develop alternatives for future waste loadings that would be compatible with Indiana stream water-quality standards defined for two critical hydrologic conditions, summer and winter low flows. The only point-source waste load affecting Sand Creek in the vicinity of Greensburg is the Greensburg wastewater-treatment facility. Non-point, unrecorded waste loads seemed to be significant during three water-quality surveys done by the Indiana State Board of Health. Natural streamflow in Sand Creek during the summer and annual 7-day, 10-year low flow is zero so no benefit from dilution is provided. Effluent ammonia-nitrogen concentrations from the Greensburg wastewater-treatment facility will not meet Indiana water-quality standards during summer and winter low flows. To meet the water-quality standard the wastewater-effluent would be limited to a maximum total ammonia-nitrogen concentration of 2.5 mg/l for summer months (June through August) and 4.0 mg/l for winter months (November through March). Model simulations indicate that benthic-oxygen demand, nitrification, and the dissolved-oxygen concentration of the wastewater effluent are the most significant factors affecting the in-stream dissolved-oxygen concentration during summer low flows. The model predicts that with a benthic-oxygen demand of 1.5 grams per square meter per day at 20C the stream has no additional waste-load assimilative capacity. Present carbonaceous biochemical-oxygen demand loads from the Greensburg wastewater-treatment facility will not result in violations of the in-stream dissolved-oxygen standard (5 mg/l) during winter low flows. (Kosco-USGS)

Spatial, temporal, and vertical variability of polar stratospheric ozone loss in the Arctic winters 2004/05-2009/10

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttippurath, J.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Lefèvre, F.; Goutail, F.

2010-06-01

The stratospheric ozone loss during the Arctic winters 2004/05-2009/10 is investigated by using high resolution simulations from the chemical transport model Mimosa-Chim and observations from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura by the passive tracer technique. The winter 2004/05 was the coldest of the series with strongest chlorine activation. The ozone loss diagnosed from both model and measurements inside the polar vortex at 475 K ranges from ~1-0.7 ppmv in the warm winter 2005/06 to 1.7 ppmv in the cold winter 2004/05. Halogenated (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles contribute to 75-90% of the accumulated ozone loss at this level. At 675 K the lowest loss of ~0.4 ppmv is computed in 2008/09 from both simulations and observations and, the highest loss is estimated in 2006/07 by the model (1.3 ppmv) and in 2004/05 by MLS (1.5 ppmv). Most of the ozone loss (60-75%) at this level results from cycles catalysed by nitrogen oxides (NO and NO2) rather than halogens. At both 475 and 675 K levels the simulated ozone evolution inside the polar vortex is in reasonably good agreement with the observations. The ozone total column loss deduced from the model calculations at the MLS sampling locations inside the vortex ranges between 40 DU in 2005/06 and 94 DU in 2004/05, while that derived from observations ranges between 37 DU and 111 DU in the same winters. These estimates from both Mimosa-Chim and MLS are in general good agreement with those from the ground-based UV-VIS (ultra violet-visible) ozone loss analyses for the respective winters.

Life in Ice: Microbial Growth Dynamics and Greenhouse Gas Production During Winter in a Thermokarst Bog Revealed by Stable Isotope Probing Targeted Metagenomics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blazewicz, S.; White, R. A., III; Tas, N.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Mcfarland, J. W.; Jansson, J.; Waldrop, M. P.

2016-12-01

Permafrost contains a reservoir of frozen C estimated to be twice the size of the current atmospheric C pool. In response to changing climate, permafrost is rapidly warming which could result in widespread seasonal thawing. When permafrost thaws, soils that are rich in ice and C often transform into thermokarst wetlands with anaerobic conditions and significant production of atmospheric CH4. While most C flux research in recently thawed permafrost concentrates on the few summer months when seasonal thaw has occurred, there is mounting evidence that sizeable portions of annual CO2 and CH4 efflux occurs over winter or during a rapid burst of emissions associated with seasonal thaw. A potential mechanism for such efflux patterns is microbial activity in frozen soils over winter where gasses produced are partially trapped within ice until spring thaw. In order to better understand microbial transformation of soil C to greenhouse gas over winter, we applied stable isotope probing (SIP) targeted metagenomics combined with process measurements and field flux data to reveal activities of microbial communities in `frozen' soil from an Alaskan thermokarst bog. Field studies revealed build-up of CO2 and CH4 in frozen soils suggesting that microbial activity persisted throughout the winter in soils poised just below the freezing point. Laboratory incubations designed to simulate in-situ winter conditions (-1.5 °C and anaerobic) revealed continuous CH4 and CO2 production. Strikingly, the quantity of CH4 produced in 6 months in frozen soil was equivalent to approximately 80% of CH4 emitted during the 3 month summer `active' season. Heavy water SIP targeted iTag sequencing revealed growing bacteria and archaea in the frozen anaerobic soil. Growth was primarily observed in two bacterial phyla, Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes, suggesting that fermentation was likely the major C mineralization pathway. SIP targeted metagenomics facilitated characterization of the primary metabolic pathways in growing organisms that likely drove C mineralization. Results indicate that winter microbial activities can play an important role in controlling seasonal C flux in recent thawed permafrost and characterization of growing organisms leads to stronger mechanistic linkages between the soil microbial community and ecosystem processes.

Planting Patterns and Deficit Irrigation Strategies to Improve Wheat Production and Water Use Efficiency under Simulated Rainfall Conditions

PubMed Central

Ali, Shahzad; Xu, Yueyue; Ma, Xiangcheng; Ahmad, Irshad; Kamran, Muhammad; Dong, Zhaoyun; Cai, Tie; Jia, Qianmin; Ren, Xiaolong; Zhang, Peng; Jia, Zhikuan

2017-01-01

The ridge furrow (RF) rainwater harvesting system is an efficient way to enhance rainwater accessibility for crops and increase winter wheat productivity in semi-arid regions. However, the RF system has not been promoted widely in the semi-arid regions, which primarily exist in remote hilly areas. To exploit its efficiency on a large-scale, the RF system needs to be tested at different amounts of simulated precipitation combined with deficit irrigation. Therefore, in during the 2015–16 and 2016–17 winter wheat growing seasons, we examined the effects of two planting patterns: (1) the RF system and (2) traditional flat planting (TF) with three deficit irrigation levels (150, 75, 0 mm) under three simulated rainfall intensity (1: 275, 2: 200, 3: 125 mm), and determined soil water storage profile, evapotranspiration rate, grain filling rate, biomass, grain yield, and net economic return. Over the two study years, the RF treatment with 200 mm simulated rainfall and 150 mm deficit irrigation (RF2150) significantly (P < 0.05) increased soil water storage in the depth of (200 cm); reduced ET at the field scale by 33%; increased total dry matter accumulation per plant; increased the grain-filling rate; and improved biomass (11%) and grain (19%) yields. The RF2150 treatment thus achieved a higher WUE (76%) and RIWP (21%) compared to TF. Grain-filling rates, grain weight of superior and inferior grains, and net economic profit of winter wheat responded positively to simulated rainfall and deficit irrigation under both planting patterns. The 200 mm simulated rainfall amount was more economical than other precipitation amounts, and led to slight increases in soil water storage, total dry matter per plant, and grain yield; there were no significant differences when the simulated rainfall was increased beyond 200 mm. The highest (12,593 Yuan ha−1) net income profit was attained using the RF system at 200 mm rainfall and 150 mm deficit irrigation, which also led to significantly higher grain yield, WUE, and RIWP than all other treatments. Thus, we recommend the RF2150 treatment for higher productivity, income profit, and improve WUE in the dry-land farming system of China. PMID:28878787

Winter and summer simulations with the GLAS climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, J.; Straus, D.; Randall, D.; Sud, Y.; Marx, L.

1981-01-01

The GLAS climate model is a general circulation model based on the primitive equations in sigma coordinates on a global domain in the presence of orography. The model incorporates parameterizations of the effects of radiation, convection, large scale latent heat release, turbulent and boundary layer fluxes, and ground hydrology. Winter and summer simulations were carried out with this model, and the resulting data are compared to observations.

Winter wheat: A model for the simulation of growth and yield in winter wheat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, D. N.; Smika, D. E.; Black, A. L.; Willis, W. O.; Bauer, A. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The basic ideas and constructs for a general physical/physiological process level winter wheat simulation model are documented. It is a materials balance model which calculates daily increments of photosynthate production and respiratory losses in the crop canopy. The partitioning of the resulting dry matter to the active growing tissues in the plant each day, transpiration and the uptake of nitrogen from the soil profile are simulated. It incorporates the RHIZOS model which simulates, in two dimensions, the movement of water, roots, and soluble nutrients through the soil profile. It records the time of initiation of each of the plant organs. These phenological events are calculated from temperature functions with delays resulting from physiological stress. Stress is defined mathematically as an imbalance in the metabolite supply; demand ratio. Physiological stress is also the basis for the calculation of rates of tiller and floret abortion. Thus, tillering and head differentiation are modeled as the resulants of the two processes, morphogenesis and abortion, which may be occurring simulaneously.

A digital simulation of the glacial-aquifer system in the northern three-fourths of Brown County, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emmons, P.J.

1990-01-01

A digital model was developed to simulate groundwater flow in a complex glacial-aquifer system that includes the Elm, Middle James, and Deep James aquifers in South Dakota. The average thickness of the aquifers ranges from 16 to 32 ft and the average hydraulic conductivity ranges from 240 to 300 ft/day. The maximum steady-state recharge to the aquifer system was estimated to be 7.0 in./yr, and the maximum potential steady- state evapotranspiration was estimated to be 35.4 in/yr. Maximum monthly recharge for 1985 ranged from zero in the winter to 2.5 in in May. The potential monthly evapotranspiration for 1985 ranged from zero in the winter to 7.0 in in July. The average difference between the simulated and observed water levels from steady-state conditions (pre-1983) was 0. 78 ft and the average absolute difference was 4.59 ft for aquifer layer 1 (the Elm aquifer) from 22 observation wells and 3.49 ft and 5.10 ft, respectively, for aquifer layer 2 (the Middle James aquifer) from 13 observation wells. The average difference between the simulated and observed water levels from simulated monthly potentiometric heads for 1985 in aquifer layer 1 ranged from -2.54 ft in July to 0.59 ft in May and in aquifer layer 2 ranged from -1.22 ft in April to 4.98 ft in November. Sensitivity analysis of the steady-state model indicates that it is most sensitive to changes in recharge and least sensitive to changes in hydraulic conductivity. (USGS)

Modelling short-term variability in carbon and water exchange in a temperate Scots pine forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeulen, M. H.; Kruijt, B. J.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

2015-02-01

Vegetation - atmosphere carbon and water exchange at one particular site can strongly vary from year to year, and understanding this interannual variability in carbon and water exchange (IAVcw) is a critical factor in projecting future ecosystem changes. However, the mechanisms driving this IAVcw are not well understood. We used data on carbon and water fluxes from a multi-year Eddy Covariance study (1997-2009) in a Dutch Scots pine forest and forced a process-based ecosystem model (LPJ-GUESS) with local data to, firstly, test whether the model can explain IAVcw and seasonal carbon and water exchange from direct environmental factors only. Initial model runs showed low correlations with estimated annual gross primary productivity (GPP) and annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), while monthly and daily fluxes showed high correlations. The model underestimated GPP and AET during winter and drought events. Secondly, we adapted the temperature inhibition function of photosynthesis to account for the observation that at this particular site, trees continue to assimilate at very low atmospheric temperatures (up to daily averages of -10 °C), resulting in a net carbon sink in winter. While we were able to improve daily and monthly simulations during winter by lowering the modelled minimum temperature threshold for photosynthesis, this did not increase explained IAVcw at the site. Thirdly, we implemented three alternative hypotheses concerning water uptake by plants in order to test which one best corresponds with the data. In particular, we analyse the effects during the 2003 heatwave. These simulations revealed a strong sensitivity of the modelled fluxes during dry and warm conditions, but no single formulation was consistently superior in reproducing the data for all time scales and the overall model-data match for IAVcw could not be improved. Most probably access to deep soil water leads to higher AET and GPP simulated during the heat wave of 2003. We conclude that photosynthesis at lower temperatures than assumed in most models can be important for winter carbon and water fluxes in pine forests. Furthermore, details of the model representations of water uptake, which are often overlooked, need further attention, and deep water access should be treated explicitly.

Controlling Factors of the Surface Energy and Water Balances in cities located in cold climate regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Järvi, L.; Grimmond, S. B.; Christen, A.; McFadden, J. P.; Strachan, I. B.

2016-12-01

Urban effects on climate are often pronounced in winter due to large anthropogenic heat releases and differences in snow cover between urban and surrounding rural areas. In this study, we simulate energy and water balances in cities characterized by cold winter climates with snow. Eleven urban sites from Helsinki (Finland), Basel (Switzerland), Montreal (Canada) and Minneapolis (USA) are analysed. The sites were selected based on the availability of either measured turbulent fluxes (from eddy covariance) or surface runoff to be used for model evaluation. The sites vary with respect to land cover fractions, irrigation habits and population densities. For example, the plan area fraction of impervious surface varies from 5% in Minneapolis to 84% in Basel. To simulate urban energy and water balances, we use the Surface Urban Energy and Water balance Scheme (SUEWS) model, which has been designed to minimize the number of required input variables and model parameters. For each site, the model is run in an offline mode using measured hourly meteorological data with a time step of 5-min. As the modelled time periods range from one (Basel) to 7.5 years (Helsinki), a wide range of meteorological conditions occur. Our results show how both evaporation and surface runoff are highly dependent on the fraction of impervious surface cover (r > |0.8|) during snow-free periods. However, high year-to-year variability in simulated evaporation and runoff indicates that climatological factors are also important. In winter, the amount and duration of snow cover become import controlling factor in determining the two components of water balance. The shorter the snow cover period is, the larger the cumulative runoff tends to be. Thus, our results suggest that warmer winters with less snow will increase the stress on drainage systems and modify the urban ecosystem via changes in evaporation and Bowen ratio. Also, our results indicate that simply using the fraction of impervious or pervious surfaces when estimating the surface runoff at different sites is not sufficient, but rather inter-annual variability in climatology also needs to be considered.

Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using SWAT model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Sangchul; Sadeghi, Ali M.; Yeo, In-Young; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, W. Dean

2017-01-01

Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrate loads from agriculture. Accordingly, the question remains whether WCCs are sufficient to mitigate increased nutrient loads caused by FCCs. In this study, we assessed the impacts of FCCs on WCC nitrate reduction efficiency on the Coastal Plain of the CBW using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Three FCC scenarios (2085 – 2098) were prepared using General Circulation Models (GCMs), considering three Intergovernmnental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We also developed six representative WCC implementation scenarios based on the most commonly used planting dates and species of WCCs in this region. Simulation results showed that WCC biomass increased by ~ 58 % under FCC scenarios, due to climate conditions conducive to the WCC growth. Prior to implementing WCCs, annual nitrate loads increased by ~ 43 % under FCC scenarios compared to the baseline scenario (2001 – 2014). When WCCs were planted, annual nitrate loads were substantially reduced by ~ 48 % and WCC nitrate reduction efficiency water ~ 5 % higher under FCC scenarios relative to the baseline. The increase rate of WCC nitrate reduction efficiency varied by FCC scenarios and WCC planting methods. As CO2 concentration was higher and winters were warmer under FCC scenarios, WCCs had greater biomass and therefore showed higher nitrate reduction efficiency. In response to FCC scenarios, the performance of less effective WCC practices (e.g., barley, wheat, and late planting) under the baseline indicated ~ 14 % higher increase rate of nitrate reduction efficiency compared to ones with better effectiveness under the baseline (e.g., rye and early planting), due to warmer temperatures. According to simulation results, WCCs were effective to mitigate nitrate loads accelerated by FCCs and therefore the role of WCCs in mitigating nitrate loads is even more important in the given FCCs.

Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Donald J.; Ribic, Christine; Donner, Deahn M.; Nelson, Mark D.; Bocetti, Carol I.; Deloria-Sheffield, Christie M.

2017-01-01

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001.To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme.Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines.Synthesis and applications. Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under current management conditions and that the jack pine plantation and cowbird removal programmes continue to be necessary for the long-term persistence of the species. This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate full annual cycle dynamics into a population viability analysis for a migratory bird, and our results indicate that incorporating wintering grounds dynamics improved the model performance.

Influence of Ocean Acidification on a Natural Winter-to-Summer Plankton Succession: First Insights from a Long-Term Mesocosm Study Draw Attention to Periods of Low Nutrient Concentrations.

PubMed

Bach, Lennart T; Taucher, Jan; Boxhammer, Tim; Ludwig, Andrea; Achterberg, Eric P; Algueró-Muñiz, María; Anderson, Leif G; Bellworthy, Jessica; Büdenbender, Jan; Czerny, Jan; Ericson, Ylva; Esposito, Mario; Fischer, Matthias; Haunost, Mathias; Hellemann, Dana; Horn, Henriette G; Hornick, Thomas; Meyer, Jana; Sswat, Michael; Zark, Maren; Riebesell, Ulf

2016-01-01

Every year, the oceans absorb about 30% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) leading to a re-equilibration of the marine carbonate system and decreasing seawater pH. Today, there is increasing awareness that these changes-summarized by the term ocean acidification (OA)-could differentially affect the competitive ability of marine organisms, thereby provoking a restructuring of marine ecosystems and biogeochemical element cycles. In winter 2013, we deployed ten pelagic mesocosms in the Gullmar Fjord at the Swedish west coast in order to study the effect of OA on plankton ecology and biogeochemistry under close to natural conditions. Five of the ten mesocosms were left unperturbed and served as controls (~380 μatm pCO2), whereas the others were enriched with CO2-saturated water to simulate realistic end-of-the-century carbonate chemistry conditions (~760 μatm pCO2). We ran the experiment for 113 days which allowed us to study the influence of high CO2 on an entire winter-to-summer plankton succession and to investigate the potential of some plankton organisms for evolutionary adaptation to OA in their natural environment. This paper is the first in a PLOS collection and provides a detailed overview on the experimental design, important events, and the key complexities of such a "long-term mesocosm" approach. Furthermore, we analyzed whether simulated end-of-the-century carbonate chemistry conditions could lead to a significant restructuring of the plankton community in the course of the succession. At the level of detail analyzed in this overview paper we found that CO2-induced differences in plankton community composition were non-detectable during most of the succession except for a period where a phytoplankton bloom was fueled by remineralized nutrients. These results indicate: (1) Long-term studies with pelagic ecosystems are necessary to uncover OA-sensitive stages of succession. (2) Plankton communities fueled by regenerated nutrients may be more responsive to changing carbonate chemistry than those having access to high inorganic nutrient concentrations and may deserve particular attention in future studies.

Influence of Ocean Acidification on a Natural Winter-to-Summer Plankton Succession: First Insights from a Long-Term Mesocosm Study Draw Attention to Periods of Low Nutrient Concentrations

PubMed Central

Taucher, Jan; Boxhammer, Tim; Ludwig, Andrea; Achterberg, Eric P.; Algueró-Muñiz, María; Anderson, Leif G.; Bellworthy, Jessica; Büdenbender, Jan; Czerny, Jan; Ericson, Ylva; Esposito, Mario; Fischer, Matthias; Haunost, Mathias; Hellemann, Dana; Horn, Henriette G.; Hornick, Thomas; Meyer, Jana; Sswat, Michael; Zark, Maren; Riebesell, Ulf

2016-01-01

Every year, the oceans absorb about 30% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) leading to a re-equilibration of the marine carbonate system and decreasing seawater pH. Today, there is increasing awareness that these changes–summarized by the term ocean acidification (OA)–could differentially affect the competitive ability of marine organisms, thereby provoking a restructuring of marine ecosystems and biogeochemical element cycles. In winter 2013, we deployed ten pelagic mesocosms in the Gullmar Fjord at the Swedish west coast in order to study the effect of OA on plankton ecology and biogeochemistry under close to natural conditions. Five of the ten mesocosms were left unperturbed and served as controls (~380 μatm pCO2), whereas the others were enriched with CO2-saturated water to simulate realistic end-of-the-century carbonate chemistry conditions (~760 μatm pCO2). We ran the experiment for 113 days which allowed us to study the influence of high CO2 on an entire winter-to-summer plankton succession and to investigate the potential of some plankton organisms for evolutionary adaptation to OA in their natural environment. This paper is the first in a PLOS collection and provides a detailed overview on the experimental design, important events, and the key complexities of such a “long-term mesocosm” approach. Furthermore, we analyzed whether simulated end-of-the-century carbonate chemistry conditions could lead to a significant restructuring of the plankton community in the course of the succession. At the level of detail analyzed in this overview paper we found that CO2-induced differences in plankton community composition were non-detectable during most of the succession except for a period where a phytoplankton bloom was fueled by remineralized nutrients. These results indicate: (1) Long-term studies with pelagic ecosystems are necessary to uncover OA-sensitive stages of succession. (2) Plankton communities fueled by regenerated nutrients may be more responsive to changing carbonate chemistry than those having access to high inorganic nutrient concentrations and may deserve particular attention in future studies. PMID:27525979

Inactivation of Poxviruses by Upper-Room UVC Light in a Simulated Hospital Room Environment

PubMed Central

McDevitt, James J.; Milton, Donald K.; Rudnick, Stephen N.; First, Melvin W.

2008-01-01

In the event of a smallpox outbreak due to bioterrorism, delays in vaccination programs may lead to significant secondary transmission. In the early phases of such an outbreak, transmission of smallpox will take place especially in locations where infected persons may congregate, such as hospital emergency rooms. Air disinfection using upper-room 254 nm (UVC) light can lower the airborne concentrations of infective viruses in the lower part of the room, and thereby control the spread of airborne infections among room occupants without exposing occupants to a significant amount of UVC. Using vaccinia virus aerosols as a surrogate for smallpox we report on the effectiveness of air disinfection, via upper-room UVC light, under simulated real world conditions including the effects of convection, mechanical mixing, temperature and relative humidity. In decay experiments, upper-room UVC fixtures used with mixing by a conventional ceiling fan produced decreases in airborne virus concentrations that would require additional ventilation of more than 87 air changes per hour. Under steady state conditions the effective air changes per hour associated with upper-room UVC ranged from 18 to 1000. The surprisingly high end of the observed range resulted from the extreme susceptibility of vaccinia virus to UVC at low relative humidity and use of 4 UVC fixtures in a small room with efficient air mixing. Increasing the number of UVC fixtures or mechanical ventilation rates resulted in greater fractional reduction in virus aerosol and UVC effectiveness was higher in winter compared to summer for each scenario tested. These data demonstrate that upper-room UVC has the potential to greatly reduce exposure to susceptible viral aerosols. The greater survival at baseline and greater UVC susceptibility of vaccinia under winter conditions suggest that while risk from an aerosol attack with smallpox would be greatest in winter, protective measures using UVC may also be most efficient at this time. These data may also be relevant to influenza, which also has improved aerosol survival at low RH and somewhat similar sensitivity to UVC. PMID:18781204

Calcium addition at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest increases sugar storage, antioxidant activity and cold tolerance in native red spruce (Picea rubens).

PubMed

Halman, Joshua M; Schaberg, Paul G; Hawley, Gary J; Eagar, Christopher

2008-06-01

In fall (November 2005) and winter (February 2006), we collected current-year foliage of native red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) growing in a reference watershed and in a watershed treated in 1999 with wollastonite (CaSiO(3), a slow-release calcium source) to simulate preindustrial soil calcium concentrations (Ca-addition watershed) at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (Thornton, NH). We analyzed nutrition, soluble sugar concentrations, ascorbate peroxidase (APX) activity and cold tolerance, to evaluate the basis of recent (2003) differences between watersheds in red spruce foliar winter injury. Foliar Ca and total sugar concentrations were significantly higher in trees in the Ca-addition watershed than in trees in the reference watershed during both fall (P=0.037 and 0.035, respectively) and winter (P=0.055 and 0.036, respectively). The Ca-addition treatment significantly increased foliar fructose and glucose concentrations in November (P=0.013 and 0.007, respectively) and foliar sucrose concentrations in winter (P=0.040). Foliar APX activity was similar in trees in both watersheds during fall (P=0.28), but higher in trees in the Ca-addition watershed during winter (P=0.063). Cold tolerance of foliage was significantly greater in trees in the Ca-addition watershed than in trees in the reference watershed (P<0.001). Our results suggest that low foliar sugar concentrations and APX activity, and reduced cold tolerance in trees in the reference watershed contributed to their high vulnerability to winter injury in 2003. Because the reference watershed reflects forest conditions in the region, the consequences of impaired physiological function caused by soil Ca depletion may have widespread implications for forest health.

Nutritional condition of Northern Yellowstone Elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cook, R.C.; Cook, J.G.; Mech, L.D.

2004-01-01

Ultrasonography and body condition scoring was used to estimate nutritional condition of northern Yellowstone elk in late winter. Probability of pregnancy was related to body fat, and lactating cows had 50% less fat than non-lactating cows. For mild to normal winters, most of the elk were in good condition.

Progress toward improving regional atmospheric inversions using airborne measurements: Results from ACT-America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, K. J.; Baier, B.; Baker, D.; Barkley, Z.; Bell, E.; Bowman, K. W.; Browell, E. V.; Campbell, J.; Chen, H. W.; Choi, Y.; DiGangi, J. P.; Dobler, J. T.; Erxleben, W. H.; Fan, T. F.; Feng, S.; Fried, A.; Gaudet, B. J.; Jacobson, A. R.; Keller, K.; Kooi, S. A.; Lauvaux, T.; Lin, B.; McGill, M. J.; McGregor, D.; Michalak, A.; Obland, M. D.; O'Dell, C.; Pal, S.; Parazoo, N.; Pauly, R.; Randazzo, N. A.; Samaddar, A.; Schuh, A. E.; Sweeney, C.; Wesloh, D.; Williams, C. A.; Zhang, F.; Zhou, Y.

2017-12-01

The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT) - America mission aims to improve our understanding of transport and fluxes of greenhouse gases (GHGs) via airborne campaigns spanning a range of mid-latitude weather conditions, and thus to improve the accuracy and precision of regional inverse flux estimates of GHGs. ACT-America has conducted three field campaigns with two aircraft across three regions of the eastern United States during summer 2016, winter 2017 and fall 2017. Simulations of atmospheric GHGs have been conducted for a subset of these campaigns. We present progress from these campaigns. Mid-summer observations suggest a net biological source of CO2 to the atmosphere in the Gulf Coast states. These results contradict those terrestrial biosphere models that show net uptake of CO2 in this region in summer. Methane observations downwind of major sources in the MidAtlantic suggest that these sources are represented fairly well by existing emissions inventories. Flux estimation in other regions is underway. Spatially-coherent differences in GHGs extend throughout the depth of the troposphere are observed at frontal boundaries in summer and winter. These spatial structures are captured in global and mesoscale simulations, though the simulated GHG mole fractions are sometimes biased with respect to observations, suggesting potential biases in synoptic transport. Mesoscale simulations overestimate spatial differences in ABL CO2 mole fractions in fair weather conditions as compared to observations and the CarbonTracker global inverse modeling system. ABL depths are simulated fairly well by both mesoscale and global modeling systems, suggesting that either weather-scale flux amplitudes are overestimated by CarbonTracker, or the mesoscale model lacks parameterized transport above the ABL. Measurements of OCS, 14CO2, and CO are being used to attribute CO2 variability to biogenic and anthropogenic processes and to expand the evaluation of GHG simulation systems. Cross-evaluation of OCO-2 and airborne lidar XCO2 observations against in situ measurements is defining the regional precision and accuracy of these observations. These findings are moving us toward improved regional GHG inverse flux estimates via better understanding of prior fluxes, atmospheric transport, and satellite CO2 observations.

Observations and simulations of the western United States' hydroclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guirguis, Kristen

While very important from an economical and societal point of view, estimating precipitation in the western United States remains an unsolved and challenging problem. This is due to difficulties in observing and modeling precipitation in complex terrain. This research examines this issue by (i) providing a systematic evaluation of precipitation observations to quantify data uncertainty; and (ii) investigating the ability of the Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model (OLAM) to simulate the winter hydroclimate in this region. This state-of-the-art, non-hydrostatic model has the capability of simulating simultaneously all scales of motions at various resolutions. This research intercompares nine precipitation datasets commonly used in hydrometeorological research in two ways. First, using principal component analysis, a precipitation climatology is conducted for the western U.S. from which five unique precipitation climates are identified. From this analysis, data uncertainty is shown to be primarily due to differences in (i) precipitation over the Rocky Mountains, (ii) the eastward wet-to-dry precipitation gradient during the cold season, (iii) the North American Monsoon signal, and (iv) precipitation in the desert southwest during spring and summer. The second intercomparison uses these five precipitation regions to provide location-specific assessments of uncertainty, which is shown to be dependent on season, location. Long-range weather forecasts on the order of a season are important for water-scarce regions such as the western U.S. The modeling component of this research looks at the ability of the OLAM to simulate the hydroclimate in the western U.S. during the winter of 1999. Six global simulations are run, each with a different spatial resolution over the western U.S. (360 km down to 11 km). For this study, OLAM is configured as for a long-range seasonal hindcast but with observed sea surface temperatures. OLAM precipitation compares well against observations, and is generally within the range of data uncertainty. Observed and simulated synoptic meteorological conditions are examined during the wettest and driest events. OLAM is shown to reproduce the appropriate anomaly fields, which is encouraging since it demonstrates the capability of a global climate model, driven only by SSTs and initial conditions, to represent meteorological features associated with daily precipitation variability.

Potential energy expenditure by litter-roosting bats associated with temperature under leaf litter during winter

Treesearch

Roger W. Perry

2013-01-01

In temperate portions of North America, some bats that remain active during winter undergo short periods of hibernation below leaf litter on the forest floor during episodes of below-freezing weather. These winter roosts may provide above-freezing conditions, but the thermal conditions under leaf litter are unclear. Further, little is known of the relationship between...

Modelling the influence of elevation and snow regime on winter stream temperature in the rain-on-snow zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leach, J.; Moore, D.

2015-12-01

Winter stream temperature of coastal mountain catchments influences fish growth and development. Transient snow cover and advection associated with lateral throughflow inputs are dominant controls on stream thermal regimes in these regions. Existing stream temperature models lack the ability to properly simulate these processes. Therefore, we developed and evaluated a conceptual-parametric catchment-scale stream temperature model that includes the role of transient snow cover and lateral advection associated with throughflow. The model provided reasonable estimates of observed stream temperature at three test catchments. We used the model to simulate winter stream temperature for virtual catchments located at different elevations within the rain-on-snow zone. The modelling exercise examined stream temperature response associated with interactions between elevation, snow regime, and changes in air temperature. Modelling results highlight that the sensitivity of winter stream temperature response to changes in climate may be dependent on catchment elevation and landscape position.

Global Weirding? - Using Very Large Ensembles and Extreme Value Theory to assess Changes in Extreme Weather Events Today

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.; Mitchell, D.; Sippel, S.; Black, M. T.; Dittus, A. J.; Harrington, L. J.; Mohd Saleh, N. H.

2014-12-01

A shift in the distribution of socially-relevant climate variables such as daily minimum winter temperatures and daily precipitation extremes, has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change for various mid-latitude regions. However, while there are many process-based arguments suggesting also a change in the shape of these distributions, attribution studies demonstrating this have not currently been undertaken. Here we use a very large initial condition ensemble of ~40,000 members simulating the European winter 2013/2014 using the distributed computing infrastructure under the weather@home project. Two separate scenarios are used:1. current climate conditions, and 2. a counterfactual scenario of "world that might have been" without anthropogenic forcing. Specifically focusing on extreme events, we assess how the estimated parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution vary depending on variable-type, sampling frequency (daily, monthly, …) and geographical region. We find that the location parameter changes for most variables but, depending on the region and variables, we also find significant changes in scale and shape parameters. The very large ensemble allows, furthermore, to assess whether such findings in the fitted GEV distributions are consistent with an empirical analysis of the model data, and whether the most extreme data still follow a known underlying distribution that in a small sample size might otherwise be thought of as an out-lier. The ~40,000 member ensemble is simulated using 12 different SST patterns (1 'observed', and 11 best guesses of SSTs with no anthropogenic warming). The range in SSTs, along with the corresponding changings in the NAO and high-latitude blocking inform on the dynamics governing some of these extreme events. While strong tele-connection patterns are not found in this particular experiment, the high number of simulated extreme events allows for a more thorough analysis of the dynamics than has been performed before. Therefore, combining extreme value theory with very large ensemble simulations allows us to understand the dynamics of changes in extreme events which is not possible just using the former but also shows in which cases statistics combined with smaller ensembles give as valid results as very large initial conditions.

Assessing the Impact of Air Pollution on Grain Yield of Winter Wheat - A Case Study in the North China Plain

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xiying; Shao, Liwei; Chen, Suying

2016-01-01

The major wheat production region of China the North China Plain (NCP) is seriously affected by air pollution. In this study, yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was analyzed with respect to the potential impact of air pollution index under conditions of optimal crop management in the NCP from 2001 to 2012. Results showed that air pollution was especially serious at the early phase of winter wheat growth significantly influencing various weather factors. However, no significant correlations were found between final grain yield and the weather factors during the early growth phase. In contrast, significant correlations were found between grain yield and total solar radiation gap, sunshine hour gap, diurnal temperature range and relative humidity during the late growing phase. To disentangle the confounding effects of various weather factors, and test the isolated effect of air pollution induced changes in incoming global solar radiation on yield under ceteris paribus conditions, crop model based scenario-analysis was conducted. The simulation results of the calibrated Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model indicated that a reduction in radiation by 10% might cause a yield reduction by more than 10%. Increasing incident radiation by 10% would lead to yield increases of (only) 7%, with the effects being much stronger during the late growing phase compared to the early growing phase. However, there is evidence that APSIM overestimates the effect of air pollution induced changes on radiation, as it does not consider the changes in radiative properties of solar insulation, i.e. the relative increase of diffuse over direct radiation, which may partly alleviate the negative effects of reduced total radiation by air pollution. Concluding, the present study could not detect a significantly negative effect of air pollution on wheat yields in the NCP. PMID:27612146

Lesser scaup winter foraging and nutrient reserve acquisition in east-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herring, G.; Collazo, J.A.

2006-01-01

Lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) populations have been declining since the late 1970s. One of the explanations to account for this decline, the spring-condition hypothesis (SCH), is based on the premise that scaup are limited by their ability to acquire or maintain nutrient reserves during migration to the breeding grounds, leading to an impairment of their reproductive potential. Available evidence suggests that endogenous reserves required for reproduction are obtained at a later stage of migration or after arrival at the breeding grounds, not wintering sites. However, only one study has addressed body-condition levels on a southern wintering site in the last decade, with results limited to the wintering grounds on the Mississippi Flyway. We documented foraging behavior, nutrient levels, and body mass of lesser scaup in east-central Florida, USA, where 62% of the Atlantic Flyway population overwinters, during the winters of 2002 and 2003. Diurnal foraging did not increase seasonally. Nocturnal foraging increased seasonally by 76% or 43 minutes per night in females and by 478% or 1.9 hours per night in males. Measures of body condition did not change seasonally during 2002 for either sex. Between early and later winter in 2003 corrected body mass (CBM) and lipid reserves of male scaup increased 77 g and 39 g, respectively. Our results suggest that lesser scaup maintain or may slightly improve their physiological condition in east-central Florida during winter. Lower body mass and differences in nutrient levels in east-central Florida, compared to a wintering site in Louisiana, likely stem from geographic variation and lower thermal requirements associated with the warmer Florida environment. Lesser scaup depart Florida with sufficient reserves to initiate spring migration, but they maximize nutrient reserves used during reproduction elsewhere during migration or on the breeding grounds. These results suggest that maintaining the ecological integrity of this wintering ground is critical in minimizing winter mortality and preventing it from becoming an ancillary factor in current declines. Future research should address understanding survival rates during spring migration and at critical staging areas to provide new insight into the ramifications of scaup leaving wintering habitats such as MINWR with lower body condition than at other wintering sites in other flyways.

Numerical simulation of formation and preservation of Ningwu ice cave, Shanxi, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Shi, Y.

2015-10-01

Ice caves exist in locations where annual average air temperature is higher than 0 °C. An example is Ningwu ice cave, Shanxi Province, the largest ice cave in China. In order to quantitatively investigate the mechanism of formation and preservation of the ice cave, we use the finite-element method to simulate the heat transfer process at this ice cave. There are two major control factors. First, there is the seasonal asymmetric heat transfer. Heat is transferred into the ice cave from outside very inefficiently by conduction in spring, summer and fall. In winter, thermal convection occurs that transfers heat very efficiently out of the ice cave, thus cooling it down. Secondly, ice-water phase change provides a heat barrier for heat transfer into the cave in summer. The calculation also helps to evaluate effects of global warming, tourists, colored lights, climatic conditions, etc. for sustainable development of the ice cave as a tourism resource. In some other ice caves in China, managers have installed airtight doors at these ice caves' entrances with the intention of "protecting" these caves, but this in fact prevents cooling in winter and these cave ices will entirely melt within tens of years.

21st Century Trends in the Potential for Ozone Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2009-05-01

We find robust trends in the area where Antarctic stratospheric temperatures are below the threshold for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. In late winter (September-October-November), cold area trends are consistent with the respective trends in equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), i.e. negative cold area trends in 'realistic future' simulations where EESC decreases and the ozone layer recovers. In the early winter (April through June), regardless of EESC scenario, we find an increasing cold area trend in all simulations; multiple linear regression analysis shows that this early winter cooling trend is associated with the predicted increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. We compare the seasonality of the potential for Antarctic ozone depletion in two versions of the GEOS CCM and assess the impact of the above-mentioned cold area trends on polar stratospheric chemistry.

Dust-wind interactions can intensify aerosol pollution over eastern China.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Russell, Lynn M; Lou, Sijia; Liao, Hong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Ying; Singh, Balwinder; Ghan, Steven J

2017-05-11

Eastern China has experienced severe and persistent winter haze episodes in recent years due to intensification of aerosol pollution. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, the winter aerosol pollution over eastern China is associated with unusual meteorological conditions, including weaker wind speeds. Here we show, based on model simulations, that during years with decreased wind speed, large decreases in dust emissions (29%) moderate the wintertime land-sea surface air temperature difference and further decrease winds by -0.06 (±0.05) m s -1 averaged over eastern China. The dust-induced lower winds enhance stagnation of air and account for about 13% of increasing aerosol concentrations over eastern China. Although recent increases in anthropogenic emissions are the main factor causing haze over eastern China, we conclude that natural emissions also exert a significant influence on the increases in wintertime aerosol concentrations, with important implications that need to be taken into account by air quality studies.

Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-12-01

In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

[Estimate the abatement rate of septic tank sewage outfall soil on nitrogen pollutants of typical farmer household sewage].

PubMed

Zhou, Feng; Wang, Wen-Lin; Wang, Guo-Xiang; Ma, Jiu-Yuan; Wan, Yin-Jing; Tang, Xiao-Yan; Liang, Bin; Ji, Bin

2013-10-01

The surface soil on sewage outfall and effluent of farmer household septic tank were collected in situ from the typical region of plain river network areas in Taihu Lake Basin, and the typical rainfall (summer 30 mm . times-1, winter 5 mm times -1), temperature (summer 27 degrees C, winter 5 degrees C ) condition and pollutant load were artificial simulated by indoor simulation soil column experiments for estimating nitrogen abatement rate of rural sewage treated by the outfall soil and exploring the abatement rule in different seasons and weather process (7 days before the rain, 3 rainy days, 7 days after the rain). Results showed that: there was the significant difference (P <0.05) in abatement/increase rate of outfall soil on nitrogen between summer and winter. The TN abatement rate, NO-3 -N increase rate of summer showed a significant difference (P <0.01) among different weather processes, but the NH+4 -N abatement rate of summer and the TN, NH+4 -N abatement rate, NO -N increase rate of winter were not significant (P > 0. 05). Therefore, the TN, NH+4 -N abatement rate, NO-3 -N increase rate need to be divided by seasons, TN abatement rate, NO-3 -N increase rate of summer need to be divided by the weather process, which were 38.5% , - 25.0% , 46. 0% and 478. 1%, 913.8%, 382. 0% , before the rain, in rainy day, after the rain, respectively; while the NH+4 -N abatement rate of summer and the TN, NH+4 -N abatement rate, NO-3 -N increase rate of winter do not need to be divided by weather process, were 91.7% , 50.4% , 85.5% and 276.0% , respectively. In the summer, the TN abatement rate in different weather processes was not correlated with NH+4 -N abatement rate, but significantly negative correlated with NO-3 -N increase rate. In the winter, the stable accumulation of TN in soil was an important reason of the TN abatement rate which had no significant difference and kept a high level among different weather processes, and it was closely related to the stable accumulation of NH+4 -N in soil.

An epidemiological modeling and data integration framework.

PubMed

Pfeifer, B; Wurz, M; Hanser, F; Seger, M; Netzer, M; Osl, M; Modre-Osprian, R; Schreier, G; Baumgartner, C

2010-01-01

In this work, a cellular automaton software package for simulating different infectious diseases, storing the simulation results in a data warehouse system and analyzing the obtained results to generate prediction models as well as contingency plans, is proposed. The Brisbane H3N2 flu virus, which has been spreading during the winter season 2009, was used for simulation in the federal state of Tyrol, Austria. The simulation-modeling framework consists of an underlying cellular automaton. The cellular automaton model is parameterized by known disease parameters and geographical as well as demographical conditions are included for simulating the spreading. The data generated by simulation are stored in the back room of the data warehouse using the Talend Open Studio software package, and subsequent statistical and data mining tasks are performed using the tool, termed Knowledge Discovery in Database Designer (KD3). The obtained simulation results were used for generating prediction models for all nine federal states of Austria. The proposed framework provides a powerful and easy to handle interface for parameterizing and simulating different infectious diseases in order to generate prediction models and improve contingency plans for future events.

Northern Hemisphere winter-like stratospheric variability in an idealized GCM using tropospheric heating perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindgren, E. A.; Sheshadri, A.; Plumb, R. A.

2017-12-01

Tropospheric heating perturbations are used to create Northern Hemisphere winter-like stratospheric variability in an idealized atmospheric GCM. Model results with wave 1 and 2 heating perturbations are compared to a model with wave 2 topography, which has previously been shown to produce a realistic sudden stratospheric warming frequency. It is found that both wave 1 and wave 2 heating perturbations cause both split and displacement sudden warmings. This is different from the wave 2 topographic forcing, which only produces splits. Furthermore, the tropospheric heating is shown to produce more reasonable annular mode timescales in the troposphere compared to the topographic forcing. It is argued that the model with wave 2 tropospheric heating perturbation is better at simulating Northern Hemisphere stratospheric variability compared to the model with wave 2 topographic forcing. The long-term variability of zonal winds in the wave 2 heating run is also investigated, under both perpetual winter conditions and with a seasonal cycle. It is found that midlatitude winds in the perpetual winter version of the model exhibit variability on timescales of around 1000 days. These variations are thought to be connected to the QBO-like oscillations in tropical winds found in the model. This connection is further explored in the seasonal cycle version of the model as well as full GCMs with QBOs, where the correlations between tropical winds and polar vortex strength are investigated.

General-circulation-model simulations of future snowpack in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

1999-01-01

April 1 snowpack accumulations measured at 311 snow courses in the western United States (U.S.) are grouped using a correlation-based cluster analysis. A conceptual snow accumulation and melt model and monthly temperature and precipitation for each cluster are used to estimate cluster-average April 1 snowpack. The conceptual snow model is subsequently used to estimate future snowpack by using changes in monthly temperature and precipitation simulated by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HADLEY) general circulation models (GCMs). Results for the CCC model indicate that although winter precipitation is estimated to increase in the future, increases in temperatures will result in large decreases in April 1 snowpack for the entire western US. Results for the HADLEY model also indicate large decreases in April 1 snowpack for most of the western US, but the decreases are not as severe as those estimated using the CCC simulations. Although snowpack conditions are estimated to decrease for most areas of the western US, both GCMs estimate a general increase in winter precipitation toward the latter half of the next century. Thus, water quantity may be increased in the western US; however, the timing of runoff will be altered because precipitation will more frequently occur as rain rather than as snow.

Winter monsoon variability and its impact on aerosol concentrations in East Asia.

PubMed

Jeong, Jaein I; Park, Rokjin J

2017-02-01

We investigate the relationship between winter aerosol concentrations over East Asia and variability in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) using GEOS-Chem 3-D global chemical transport model simulations and ground-based aerosol concentration data. We find that both observed and modeled surface aerosol concentrations have strong relationships with the intensity of the EAWM over northern (30-50°N, 100-140°E) and southern (20-30°N, 100-140°E) East Asia. In strong winter monsoon years, compared to weak winter monsoon years, lower and higher surface PM 2.5 concentrations by up to 25% are shown over northern and southern East Asia, respectively. Analysis of the simulated results indicates that the southward transport of aerosols is a key process controlling changes in aerosol concentrations over East Asia associated with the EAWM. Variability in the EAWM is found to play a major role in interannual variations in aerosol concentrations; consequently, changes in the EAWM will be important for understanding future changes in wintertime air quality over East Asia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

North Siberian Permafrost reveals Holocene Arctic Winter Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, H.; Opel, T.; Laepple, T.; Alexander, D.; Hoffmann, K.; Werner, M.

2014-12-01

The Arctic climate has experienced a major warming over the past decades, which is unprecedented in the last 2000 yrs. There are, however, still major uncertainties about the temperature evolution during the Holocene. Most proxy reconstructions suggest a cooling in mid-and late Holocene (e.g. Wanner, 2008), whereas climate model simulations show only weak changes or even a moderate warming (e.g. Lohmann et al., 2013). In this study, we used ice wedges as promising permafrost climate archive studied by stable water isotope methods. Ice wedges may be identified by vertically oriented foliations, and they form by the repeated filling of winter thermal contraction cracks by snow melt water in spring. Therefore, the isotopic composition of wedge ice may be attributed to the climate conditions of the cold season (i.e. winter and spring). 42 samples of organic material enclosed in ice wedges have been directly dated by Radiocarbon methods. Here, we present the first terrestrial stable oxygen isotope record of Holocene winter temperatures in up to centennial-scale resolution based on permafrost ice wedges (Lena River Delta; Siberian Arctic). The Lena ice-wedge record shows that the recent isotopic temperatures are the highest of the past 7000 years. Despite similarities to Arctic temperature reconstructions of the last two millennia (Kaufman et al., 2009), it suggests a winter warming throughout the mid and late Holocene, opposite to most existing other proxy records (Wanner, 2008). This apparent contradiction can be explained by the seasonality of the ice-wedge genesis in combination with orbital and greenhouse gas forcing and is consistent with climate model simulations. We conclude that the present model-data mismatch might be an artefact of the summer bias of the existing proxy records and thus, our record helps to reconcile the understanding of the northern hemisphere Holocene temperature evolution. This is particular true for the Russian Arctic significantly underrepresented in Arctic-wide climate reconstructions. Kaufman, D. S. et al. Science 325, 1236-1239 (2009).Wanner, H. et al. Quat. Sci. Rev. 27, 1791-1828, (2008).Lohmann, G., Pfeiffer, M., Laepple, T., Leduc, G. & Kim, J. H. Clim. Past 9, 1807-1839, (2013).

Stochastic simulation model comparing distributions of STEC O157 faecal shedding prevalence between cattle vaccinated with type III secreted protein vaccines and non-vaccinated cattle.

PubMed

Vogstad, A R; Moxley, R A; Erickson, G E; Klopfenstein, T J; Smith, D R

2014-06-01

Pens of cattle with high Escherichia coli O157:H7 (STEC O157) prevalence at harvest may present a greater risk to food safety than pens of lower prevalence. Vaccination of live cattle against STEC O157 has been proposed as an approach to reduce STEC O157 prevalence in live cattle. Our objective was to create a stochastic simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of pre-harvest interventions. We used the model to compare STEC O157 prevalence distributions for summer- and winter-fed cattle to summer-fed cattle immunized with a type III secreted protein (TTSP) vaccine. Model inputs were an estimate of vaccine efficacy, observed frequency distributions for number of animals within a pen, and pen-level faecal shedding prevalence for summer and winter. Uncertainty about vaccine efficacy was simulated using a log-normal distribution (mean = 58%, SE = 0.14). Model outputs were distributions of STEC O157 faecal pen prevalence of summer-fed cattle unvaccinated and vaccinated, and winter-fed cattle unvaccinated. The simulation was performed 5000 times. Summer faecal prevalence ranged from 0% to 80% (average = 30%). Thirty-six per cent of summer-fed pens had STEC O157 prevalence >40%. Winter faecal prevalence ranged from 0% to 60% (average = 10%). Seven per cent of winter-fed pens had STEC O157 prevalence >40%. Faecal prevalence for summer-fed pens vaccinated with a 58% efficacious vaccine product ranged from 0% to 52% (average = 13%). Less than one per cent of vaccinated pens had STEC O157 prevalence >40%. In this simulation, vaccination mitigated the risk of STEC O157 faecal shedding to levels comparable to winter, with the major effects being reduced average shedding prevalence, reduced variability in prevalence distribution, and a reduction in the occurrence of the highest prevalence pens. Food safety decision-makers may find this modelling approach useful for evaluating the value of pre-harvest interventions. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

How Hydroclimate Influences the Effectiveness of Particle Filter Data Assimilation of Streamflow in Initializing Short- to Medium-range Streamflow Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, E.; Wood, A.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

Short- to medium-range (1- to 7-day) streamflow forecasts are important for flood control operations and in issuing potentially life-save flood warnings. In the U.S., the National Weather Service River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue such forecasts in real time, depending heavily on a manual data assimilation (DA) approach. Forecasters adjust model inputs, states, parameters and outputs based on experience and consideration of a range of supporting real-time information. Achieving high-quality forecasts from new automated, centralized forecast systems will depend critically on the adequacy of automated DA approaches to make analogous corrections to the forecasting system. Such approaches would further enable systematic evaluation of real-time flood forecasting methods and strategies. Toward this goal, we have implemented a real-time Sequential Importance Resampling particle filter (SIR-PF) approach to assimilate observed streamflow into simulated initial hydrologic conditions (states) for initializing ensemble flood forecasts. Assimilating streamflow alone in SIR-PF improves simulated streamflow and soil moisture during the model spin up period prior to a forecast, with consequent benefits for forecasts. Nevertheless, it only consistently limits error in simulated snow water equivalent during the snowmelt season and in basins where precipitation falls primarily as snow. We examine how the simulated initial conditions with and without SIR-PF propagate into 1- to 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasts. Forecasts are evaluated in terms of reliability and skill over a 10-year period from 2005-2015. The focus of this analysis is on how interactions between hydroclimate and SIR-PF performance impact forecast skill. To this end, we examine forecasts for 5 hydroclimatically diverse basins in the western U.S. Some of these basins receive most of their precipitation as snow, others as rain. Some freeze throughout the mid-winter while others experience significant mid-winter melt events. We describe the methodology and present seasonal and inter-basin variations in DA-enhanced forecast skill.

Performance evaluation of NCEP climate forecast system for the prediction of winter temperatures over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Kiran Prasad, S.; Osuri, Krishna K.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.

2016-11-01

The surface air temperature during the winter season (December-February) in India adversely affects agriculture as well as day-to-day life. Therefore, the accurate prediction of winter temperature in extended range is of utmost importance. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has been providing climatic variables from the fully coupled global climate model, known as Climate Forecast System version 1 (CFSv1) on monthly to seasonal scale since 2004, and it has been upgraded to CFSv2 subsequently in 2011. In the present study, the performance of CFSv1 and CFSv2 in simulating the winter 2 m maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures ( T max, T min, and T mean, respectively) over India is evaluated with respect to India Meteorological Department (IMD) 1° × 1° observations. The hindcast data obtained from both versions of CFS from 1982 to 2009 (27 years) with November initial conditions (lead-1) are used. The analyses of winter ( T max, T min, and T mean) temperatures revealed that CFSv1 and CFSv2 are able to replicate the patterns of observed climatology, interannual variability, and coefficient of variation with a slight negative bias. Of the two, CFSv2 is appreciable in capturing increasing trends of winter temperatures like observed. The T max, T min, and T mean correlations from CFSv2 is significantly high (0.35, 0.53, and 0.51, respectively), while CFSv1 correlations are less (0.29, 0.15, and 0.12) and insignificant. This performance of CFSv2 may be due to the better estimation of surface heat budget terms and realistic CO2 concentration, which were absent in CFSv1. CFSv2 proved to have a high probability of detection in predicting different categories (below, near, and above normal) for winter T min, which are required for crop yield and public utility services, over north India.

Solar Eclipse Effect on Shelter Air Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segal, M.; Turner, R. W.; Prusa, J.; Bitzer, R. J.; Finley, S. V.

1996-01-01

Decreases in shelter temperature during eclipse events were quantified on the basis of observations, numerical model simulations, and complementary conceptual evaluations. Observations for the annular eclipse on 10 May 1994 over the United States are presented, and these provide insights into the temporal and spatial changes in the shelter temperature. The observations indicated near-surface temperature drops of as much as 6 C. Numerical model simulations for this eclipse event, which provide a complementary evaluation of the spatial and temporal patterns of the temperature drops, predict similar decreases. Interrelationships between the temperature drop, degree of solar irradiance reduction, and timing of the peak eclipse are also evaluated for late spring, summer, and winter sun conditions. These simulations suggest that for total eclipses the drops in shelter temperature in midlatitudes can be as high as 7 C for a spring morning eclipse.

Comparison of 2-D model simulations of ozone and nitrous oxide at high latitudes with stratospheric measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Proffitt, M. H.; Solomon, S.; Loewenstein, M.

1992-01-01

A linear reference relationship between O3 and N2O has been used to estimate polar winter O3 loss from aircraft data taken in the lower stratosphere. Here, this relationship is evaluated at high latitudes by comparing it with a 2D model simulation and with NIMBUS 7 satellite measurements. Although comparisons with satellite measurements are limited to January through May, the model simulations are compared during other seasons. The model simulations and the satellite data are found to be consistent with the winter O3 loss analysis. It is shown that such analyses are likely to be inappropriate during other seasons.

A WRF sensitivity study for summer ozone and winter PM events in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Z.; Chen, J.; Mahmud, A.; Di, P.; Avise, J.; DaMassa, J.; Kaduwela, A. P.

2014-12-01

Elevated summer ozone and winter PM frequently occur in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) in California. Meteorological conditions, such as wind, temperature and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) play crucial roles in these air pollution events. Therefore, accurate representation of these fields from a meteorological model is necessary to successfully reproduce these air pollution events in subsequent air quality model simulations. California's complex terrain and land-sea interface can make it challenging for meteorological models to replicate the atmospheric conditions over the SJV and SCAB during extreme pollution events. In this study, the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) over these two regions for a summer month (July 2012) and a winter month (January 2013) is evaluated with different model configurations and forcing. Different land surface schemes (Pleim-Xiu vs. hybrid scheme), the application of observational and soil nudging, two SST datasets (the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) SST vs. the default SST from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis), and two land use datasets (the National Land Cover Data (NLCD) 2006 40-category vs. USGS 24-category land use data) have been tested. Model evaluation will focus on both surface and vertical profiles for wind, temperature, relative humidity, as well as PBLH. Sensitivity of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) results to different WRF configurations will also be presented and discussed.

Winter is losing its cool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, S.

2017-12-01

Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health to ecosystems, transportation, and recreation. This study quantifies the severity of winter and its spatial-temporal variations using a newly developed winter severity index and daily temperature, snowfall and snow depth. The winter severity and the number of extreme winter days are decreasing across the global terrestrial areas during 1901-2015 except the southeast United States and isolated regions in the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are dominated by winter warming, while the changes in daily snowfall and snow depth played a secondary role. The simulations of multiple CMIP5 climate models can well capture the spatial and temporal variations of the observed changes in winter severity and extremes during 1951-2005. The models are consistent in projecting a future milder winter under various scenarios. The winter severity is projected to decrease 60-80% in the middle-latitude Northern Hemisphere under the business-as-usual scenario. The winter arrives later, ends earlier and the length of winter season will be notably shorter. The changes in harsh winter in the polar regions are weak, mainly because the warming leads to more snowfall in the high latitudes.

Dynamical Core in Atmospheric Model Does Matter in the Simulation of Arctic Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, Sang-Yoon; Choi, Suk-Jin; Kim, Baek-Min

2018-03-01

Climate models using different dynamical cores can simulate significantly different winter Arctic climates even if equipped with virtually the same physics schemes. Current climate simulated by the global climate model using cubed-sphere grid with spectral element method (SE core) exhibited significantly warmer Arctic surface air temperature compared to that using latitude-longitude grid with finite volume method core. Compared to the finite volume method core, SE core simulated additional adiabatic warming in the Arctic lower atmosphere, and this was consistent with the eddy-forced secondary circulation. Downward longwave radiation further enhanced Arctic near-surface warming with a higher surface air temperature of about 1.9 K. Furthermore, in the atmospheric response to the reduced sea ice conditions with the same physical settings, only the SE core showed a robust cooling response over North America. We emphasize that special attention is needed in selecting the dynamical core of climate models in the simulation of the Arctic climate and associated teleconnection patterns.

Improvement of high floods predictability in the Red River of the North basin using combined remote-sensed, gauge-based and assimilated precipitation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenova, O.; Restrepo, P. J.

2011-12-01

The Red River of the North basin (USA) is considered to be under high risk of flood danger, having experienced serious flooding during the last few years. The region climate can be characterized as cold and, during winter, it exhibits continuous snowcover modified by wind redistribution. High-hazard runoff regularly occurs as a major spring snowmelt event resulting from the relatively rapid release of water from the snowpack on frozen soils. Although in summer/autumn most rainfall occurs from convective storms over small areas and does not generate dangerous floods, the pre-winter state of the soils may radically influence spring maximum flows. Large amount of artificial agricultural tiles and numerous small post-glacial depressions influencing the redistribution of runoff complicates the predictions of high floods. In such conditions any hydrological model would not be successful without proper precipitation input. In this study the simulation of runoff processes for two watersheds in the basin of the Red River of the North, USA, was undertaken using the Hydrograph model developed at the State Hydrological Institute (St. Petersburg, Russia). The Hydrograph is a robust process-based model, where the processes have a physical basis combined with some strategic conceptual simplifications that give it the ability to be applied in the conditions of low information availability. It accounts for the processes of frost and thaw of soils, snow redistribution and depression storage impacts. The assessment of the model parameters was conducted based on the characteristics of soil and vegetation cover. While performing the model runs, the parameters of depression storage and the parameters of different types of flow were manually calibrated to reproduce the observed flow. The model provided satisfactory simulation results in terms not only of river runoff but also variable sates of soil like moisture and temperature over a simulation period 2005 - 2010. For experimental runs precipitation from different sources was used as forcing data to the hydrological model: 1) data of ground meteorological stations; 2) the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) products containing several variables: snow water equivalent, snow depth, solid and liquid precipitation; 3) MAPX precipitation data which is mean areal precipitation for a watershed calculated using the radar- and gauge-based information. The results demonstrated that in the conditions of high uncertainty of model parameters combining precipitation information from different sources (the SNODAS precipitation in winter with the MAPX precipitation in summer) significantly improves the model performance and predictability of high floods.

Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, Jonathan J.; Holland, Marika M.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2017-06-01

The dramatic warming of the Arctic over the last three decades has reduced both the thickness and extent of sea ice, opening opportunities for business in diverse sectors and increasing human exposure to meteorological hazards in the Arctic. It has been suggested that these changes in environmental conditions have led to an increase in extreme cyclones in the region, therefore increasing this hazard. In this study, we investigate the response of Arctic synoptic scale cyclones to climate change in a large initial value ensemble of future climate projections with the CESM1-CAM5 climate model (CESM-LE). We find that the response of Arctic cyclones in these simulations varies with season, with significant reductions in cyclone dynamic intensity across the Arctic basin in winter, but with contrasting increases in summer intensity within the region known as the Arctic Ocean cyclone maximum. There is also a significant reduction in winter cyclogenesis events within the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian sea region. We conclude that these differences in the response of cyclone intensity and cyclogenesis, with season, appear to be closely linked to changes in surface temperature gradients in the high latitudes, with Arctic poleward temperature gradients increasing in summer, but decreasing in winter.

The impact exploration of agricultural drought on winter wheat yield in the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jianhua; Wu, Jianjun; Han, Xinyi; Zhou, Hongkui

2017-04-01

Drought is one of the most serious agro-climatic disasters in the North China Plain, which has a great influence on winter wheat yield. Global warming exacerbates the drought trend of this region, so it is important to study the effect of drought on winter wheat yield. In order to assess the drought-induced winter wheat yield losses, SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index), the widely used drought index, was selected to quantify the drought from 1981 to 2013. Additionally, the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) crop model was used to simulate winter wheat yield at 47 stations in this region from 1981 to 2013. We analyzed the relationship between winter wheat yield and the SPEI at different time scales in each month during the growing season. The trends of the SPEI and the trends of winter wheat yield at 47 stations over the past 32 years were compared with each other. To further quantify the effect of drought on winter wheat yield, we defined the year that SPEI varied from -0.5 to 0.5 as the normal year, and calculated the average winter wheat yield of the normal years as a reference yield, then calculated the reduction ratios of winter wheat based on the yields mentioned above in severe drought years. As a reference, we compared the results with the reduction ratios calculated from the statistical yield data. The results showed that the 9 to 12-month scales' SPEI in April, May and June had a high correlation with winter wheat yield. The trends of the SPEI and the trends of winter wheat yield over the past 32 years showed a positive correlation (p<0.01) and have similar spatial distributions. The proportion of the stations with the same change trend between the SPEI and winter wheat yield was 70%, indicating that drought was the main factor leading to a decline in winter wheat yield in this region. The reduction ratios based on the simulated yield and the reduction ratios calculated from the statistical yield data have a high positive correlation (p<0.01), which may provide a way to quantitatively evaluate the winter wheat yield losses caused by drought. Key words: drought, winter wheat yield, SPEI, EPIC, the North China Plain

Comprehensive evaluation of multi-year real-time air quality forecasting using an online-coupled meteorology-chemistry model over southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yang; Hong, Chaopeng; Yahya, Khairunnisa; Li, Qi; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

2016-08-01

An online-coupled meteorology-chemistry model, WRF/Chem-MADRID, has been deployed for real time air quality forecast (RT-AQF) in southeastern U.S. since 2009. A comprehensive evaluation of multi-year RT-AQF shows overall good performance for temperature and relative humidity at 2-m (T2, RH2), downward surface shortwave radiation (SWDOWN) and longwave radiation (LWDOWN), and cloud fraction (CF), ozone (O3) and fine particles (PM2.5) at surface, tropospheric ozone residuals (TOR) in O3 seasons (May-September), and column NO2 in winters (December-February). Moderate-to-large biases exist in wind speed at 10-m (WS10), precipitation (Precip), cloud optical depth (COT), ammonium (NH4+), sulfate (SO42-), and nitrate (NO3-) from the IMPROVE and SEARCH networks, organic carbon (OC) at IMPROVE, and elemental carbon (EC) and OC at SEARCH, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and column carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and formaldehyde (HCHO) in both O3 and winter seasons, column nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in O3 seasons, and TOR in winters. These biases indicate uncertainties in the boundary layer and cloud process treatments (e.g., surface roughness, microphysics cumulus parameterization), emissions (e.g., O3 and PM precursors, biogenic, mobile, and wildfire emissions), upper boundary conditions for all major gases and PM2.5 species, and chemistry and aerosol treatments (e.g., winter photochemistry, aerosol thermodynamics). The model shows overall good skills in reproducing the observed multi-year trends and inter-seasonal variability in meteorological and radiative variables such as T2, WS10, Precip, SWDOWN, and LWDOWN, and relatively well in reproducing the observed trends in surface O3 and PM2.5, but relatively poor in reproducing the observed column abundances of CO, NO2, SO2, HCHO, TOR, and AOD. The sensitivity simulations using satellite-constrained boundary conditions for O3 and CO show substantial improvement for both spatial distribution and domain-mean performance statistics. The model's forecasting skills for air quality can be further enhanced through improving model inputs (e.g., anthropogenic emissions for urban areas and upper boundary conditions of chemical species), meteorological forecasts (e.g., WS10, Precip) and meteorologically-dependent emissions (e.g., biogenic and wildfire emissions), and model physics and chemical treatments (e.g., gas-phase chemistry in winter conditions, cloud processes and their interactions with radiation and aerosol).

Dynamical characterization of the 2010/2011 winter Arctic ozone depletion replaced in a climatologic context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiéblemont, R.; Huret, N.; Hauchecorne, A.; Drouin, M.

2011-12-01

The 2010/2011 stratospheric winter has recorded one of the strongest ozone depletion in the Arctic region since observations began. Such phenomenon is currently very difficult to predict as it strongly depends on winter dynamical conditions. The aim of this study is to characterize winter/spring dynamical stratospheric conditions and the ozone depletion yield. We used the AURA-MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) measurements, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Era-Interim meteorological fields and the results of the potential vorticity contour advection model MIMOSA (Modélisation Isentrope du transport Méso-échelle de l'Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection). Dynamical processes associated with the 2010/2011 winter have been investigated and replaced in a climatologic context by comparing this winter to previous similar and different winter/spring seasons over the last 20 years. Preliminary results show that the polar night jet in 2010/2011 was of an extraordinary strength during February-March, as for the same period in 1995/1996 where the ozone depletion was close to 30 %. Using MIMOSA model, we also show that the polar vortex during February-March 2010/2011 was more centred above the pole than the climatologic location. Wave activity and heat fluxes deduced from ECMWF data allow us to evaluate the specific conditions encountered during this 2010/2011 winter and mechanisms which lead to such extreme situation.

GLORIA observations of de-/nitrification during the Arctic winter 2015/16 POLSTRACC campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Marleen; Woiwode, Wolfgang; Höpfner, Michael; Johansson, Sören; Friedl-Vallon, Felix; Oelhaf, Hermann; Preusse, Peter; Ungermann, Jörn; Grooß, Jens-Uwe; Jurkat, Tina; Khosrawi, Farahnaz; Kirner, Ole; Marsing, Andreas; Sinnhuber, Björn-Martin; Voigt, Christiane; Ziereis, Helmut; Orphal, Johannes

2017-04-01

Denitrification, the condensation and sedimentation of HNO3-containing particles in the winter stratosphere at high latitudes, is an important process affecting the deactivation of ozone-depleting halogen species. It modulates the vertical partitioning of chemically active NOy and the vertical redistribution of HNO3 can affect low stratospheric altitudes under sufficiently cold conditions. The capability of associated nitrification to disturb the NOy budget of the climate-relevant lowermost stratosphere (LMS) has hardly been investigated in detail and represents a challenge for model simulations. The Arctic winter 2015/16 was characterized by exceptionally cold stratospheric temperatures and widespread polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) that were observed from mid-December 2015 until the end of February 2016 down to the LMS. Observations by the GLORIA (Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere) spectrometer during the POLSTRACC (Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate) aircraft mission allow us to study the development of nitrification of the Arctic LMS during and after the 2015/16 PSC period with high vertical resolution. The vertical cross-sections of HNO3 distribution along the HALO (High Altitude and LOng range research aircraft) flight tracks derived from GLORIA observations show the result of significant vertical redistribution of NOy with strong nitrification of up to 6 ppbv in the LMS. We compare the results of the GLORIA observations with simulations by the state-of-the-art chemical-transport model CLaMS and the climate-chemistry model EMAC and discuss the capability of these models to reproduce nitrification of the Arctic LMS.

Origin and pathways of Winter Intermediate Water in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea using observations and numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juza, Mélanie; Renault, Lionel; Ruiz, Simon; Tintoré, Joaquin

2013-12-01

The study of water masses worldwide (their formation, spreading, mixing, and impact on general circulation) is essential for a better understanding of the ocean circulation and variability. In this paper, the formation and main pathways of Winter Intermediate Water (WIW) in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea (NWMED) are investigated during the winter-spring 2011 using observations and numerical simulation. The main results show that the WIW, formed along the continental shelves of the Gulf of Lion and Balearic Sea, circulates southward following five preferential pathways depending on the WIW formation site location and the oceanic conditions. WIW joins the northeastern part of the Balearic Sea, or flows along the continental shelves until joining the Balearic Current (maximum of 0.33 Sv in early-April) or further south until the Ibiza Channel entrance. Two additional trajectories, contributing to water mass exchanges with the southern part of the Western Mediterranean Sea, bring the WIW through the Ibiza and Mallorca Channels (maxima of 0.26 Sv in late-March and 0.1 Sv in early-April, respectively). The circulation of WIW over the NWMED at 50-200 m depth, its mixing and spreading over the Western Mediterranean Sea (reaching the south of the Balearic Islands, the Algero-Provencal basin, the Ligurian and the Alboran Seas) suggest that the WIW may have an impact on the ocean circulation by eddy blocking effect, exchange of water masses between north and south subbasins of Western Mediterranean Sea through the Ibiza Channel or modification of the ocean stratification.

Contribution of Atmospheric Diffusion Conditions to the Recent Improvement in Air Quality in China

PubMed Central

Wang, Xiaoyan; Wang, Kaicun; Su, Liangyuan

2016-01-01

This study analyzed hourly mass concentration observations of PM2.5 (particulate matters with diameter less than 2.5 μm) at 512 stations in China from December 2013 to May 2015. We found that the mean concentrations of PM2.5 during the winter and spring of 2015 Dec. 2014 to Feb. 2015 and Mar. 2015 to May 2015) decreased by 20% and 14% compared to the previous year, respectively. Hazardous air-quality days decreased by 11% in 2015 winter, with more frequent good to unhealthy days; and the good and moderate air-quality days in 2015 spring increased by 9% corresponding to the less occurrence of unhealthy conditions. We compared the atmospheric diffusion conditions during these two years and quantified its contribution to the improvement of air quality during the first half of 2015 over China. Our results show that during the 2015 winter and spring, 70% and 57% of the 512 stations experienced more favorable atmospheric diffusion conditions compared to those of previous year. Over central and northern China, approximately 40% of the total decrease in PM2.5 during the 2015 winter can be attributed to the favorable atmospheric diffusion conditions. The atmospheric diffusion conditions during the spring of 2015 were not as favorable as in winter; and the average contributions of the atmospheric conditions were slight. PMID:27805030

Chemistry and dynamics of the Arctic winter 2015/2016: Simulations with the Chemistry-Climate Model EMAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosrawi, Farahnaz; Kirner, Ole; Sinnhuber, Bjoern-Martin; Ruhnke, Roland; Hoepfner, Michael; Woiwode, Wolfgang; Oelhaf, Hermann; Santee, Michelle L.; Manney, Gloria L.; Froidevaux, Lucien; Murtagh, Donal; Braesicke, Peter

2016-04-01

Model simulations of the Arctic winter 2015/2016 were performed with the atmospheric chemistry-climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) for the POLSTRACC (Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate) project. The POLSTRACC project is a HALO mission (High Altitude and LOng Range Research Aircraft) that aims to investigate the structure, composition and evolution of the Arctic Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) in a changing climate. Especially, the chemical and physical processes involved in Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion, transport and mixing processes in the UTLS at high latitudes, polar stratospheric clouds as well as cirrus clouds are investigated. The model simulations were performed with a resolution of T42L90, corresponding to a quadratic Gaussian grid of approximately 2.8°× 2.8° degrees in latitude and longitude, and 90 vertical layers from the surface up to 0.01 hPa (approx. 80 km). A Newtonian relaxation technique of the prognostic variables temperature, vorticity, divergence and surface pressure towards ECMWF data was applied above the boundary layer and below 10 hPa, in order to nudge the model dynamics towards the observed meteorology. During the Arctic winter 2015/2016 a stable vortex formed in early December, with a cold pool where temperatures reached below the Nitric Acid Trihydrate (NAT) existence temperature of 195 K, thus allowing Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) to form. The early winter has been exceptionally cold and satellite observations indicate that sedimenting PSC particles have lead to denitrification as well as dehydration of stratospheric layers. In this presentation an overview of the chemistry and dynamics of the Arctic winter 2015/2016 as simulated with EMAC will be given and comparisons to satellite observations such as e.g. Aura/MLS and Odin/SMR will be shown.

North Pacific Westerly Jet Influence of the Winter Hawaii Rainfall in the last 21,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.; Elison Timm, O.

2017-12-01

Hawaii rainfall has a strong seasonality which has more rainfall during the winter than summer. Part of the winter rainfall is from extratropical weather disturbances. Kona lows (KL) are important contributors to the annual rainfall budget of the Hawaiian Islands. KL activity is found to have a strong relationship with the North Pacific climate variability. The goal of the research is to test the hypothesis that changes in the strength and position of the upper level zonal wind jet is a key driver for regional rainfall changes. The main objectives are (1) to identify the relationship between North Pacific westerly jet strength and KL activity in present day climate, (2) to test the stability of this relationship under past climatic conditions, and (3) to explore the teleconnection between Hawaii and North America. For the present-day analysis of the westerly jet, the zonal wind at 250hPa is used from ERA-interim data from 1979-2014. The potential vorticity is used as a measure of extratropical synoptic activity. The Hawaii Rainfall Index is from the Rainfall Atlas of Hawaii (seasonal means, 1920-2012). For the paleoclimatic study, the transient TraCE-21ka simulation is used for the zonal wind - Hawaii rainfall analysis. The results of present-day analysis show that when the jet extends farther into the eastern Pacific sector the Kona Low activity is reduced, less winter rainfall is observed over Hawaii and more rainfall over the California region. The jet position-rainfall relationship was investigated within the TrACE-21 simulation. For the TraCE-21ka dataset, there is an increasing rainfall trend from 21kBP to 14kBP; this period coincides with a gradual decrease in the strength of the westerly wind jet. The results show that the westerly jet strength has a strong influence of the Kona Low activity and the rainfall over Hawaii both in the present and the past.

Analysis on energy-saving path of rural buildings in hot summer and cold winter zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Mingqiang; Li, Jinheng

2018-02-01

Since the reform and opening policy, the construction of rural area in China has become more and more important. The idea of establishing green villages needs to be accepted and recognized by the public. The hot summer and cold winter zone combines two contradictory weather conditions that is cold winter and hot summer. So the living conditions are limited. In response to this climate, residents extensively use electric heaters or air conditioning to adjust the indoor temperature, resulting in energy waste and environmental pollution. In order to improve the living conditions of residents, rural area energy conservation has been put on the agenda. Based on the present situation and energy consumption analysis of the rural buildings in the hot summer and cold winter zone, this article puts forward several energy saving paths from government, construction technology and so on

Numerical simulation of ozone loss in the Antarctic winters 2005-2008: Comparison with MLS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttippurath, J.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Lefevre, F.; Pazmino, A.

2009-04-01

The ozone loss in the recent Antarctic winters were high enough to pause a lag in the recovery phase of stratospheric ozone above this continent. We quantitatively examine the extent of ozone loss variability during 2005-2008 with simulations from a high resolution chemical transport model, MIMOSA-CHIM. The simulated results are cross-checked with the observed loss from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite sensor data. This study uses the vortex averaged data at the potential temperature level 475 K from both MIMOSA and MLS to estimate the ozone loss by transport method. Minimum temperatures calculated from ECMWF analyzes over 50-90°S at 475 K are coldest in 2008 during June-July and in 2006 during September-November. In general, Antarctic winters experience NAT temperatures from mid-May to mid-October and ICE temperatures from June to September. Due to the saturation of chemical ozone loss, the year-to-year difference in temperatures do not have a large effect. The estimated cumulative ozone loss from MIMOSA-CHIM at 475 K is 3.2 in 2005, 2.9 in 2006, 2.8 in 2007 and 2.0 ppm in 2008. The measured cumulative loss in the respective years also show similar values: respectively 3.3, 3.2, 2.8 and 2.2 ppm in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Both data sets show the same loss trend, as the cumulative loss is highest in 2005 followed by 2006 and the lowest in 2008, and are in accord with the chlorine activation and denitrification found in the respective winters. The simulations in 2008 lack adequate diabatic descent as assessed from tracer simulations in comparison with measurements. This eventually produced relatively lower values for ozone loss in 2008 in both data sets even though the observed chlorine activation was found to be similar to previous winters.

WRF modeling of PM2.5 remediation by SALSCS and its clean air flow over Beijing terrain.

PubMed

Cao, Qingfeng; Shen, Lian; Chen, Sheng-Chieh; Pui, David Y H

2018-06-01

Atmospheric simulations were carried out over the terrain of entire Beijing, China, to investigate the effectiveness of an air-pollution cleaning system named Solar-Assisted Large-Scale Cleaning System (SALSCS) for PM 2.5 mitigation by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. SALSCS was proposed to utilize solar energy to generate airflow therefrom the airborne particulate pollution of atmosphere was separated by filtration elements. Our model used a derived tendency term in the potential temperature equation to simulate the buoyancy effect of SALSCS created with solar radiation on its nearby atmosphere. PM 2.5 pollutant and SALSCS clean air were simulated in the model domain by passive tracer scalars. Simulation conditions with two system flow rates of 2.64 × 10 5  m 3 /s and 3.80 × 10 5  m 3 /s were tested for seven air pollution episodes of Beijing during the winters of 2015-2017. The numerical results showed that with eight SALSCSs installed along the 6 th Ring Road of the city, 11.2% and 14.6% of PM 2.5 concentrations were reduced under the two flow-rate simulation conditions, respectively. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nutrition for winter sports.

PubMed

Meyer, Nanna L; Manore, Melinda M; Helle, Christine

2011-01-01

Winter sports are played in cold conditions on ice or snow and often at moderate to high altitude. The most important nutritional challenges for winter sport athletes exposed to environmental extremes include increased energy expenditure, accelerated muscle and liver glycogen utilization, exacerbated fluid loss, and increased iron turnover. Winter sports, however, vary greatly regarding their nutritional requirements due to variable physiological and physique characteristics, energy and substrate demands, and environmental training and competition conditions. What most winter sport athletes have in common is a relatively lean physique and high-intensity training periods, thus they require greater energy and nutrient intakes, along with adequate food and fluid before, during, and after training. Event fuelling is most challenging for cross-country skiers competing in long events, ski jumpers aiming to reduce their body weight, and those winter sport athletes incurring repeated qualification rounds and heats. These athletes need to ensure carbohydrate availability throughout competition. Finally, winter sport athletes may benefit from dietary and sport supplements; however, attention should be paid to safety and efficacy if supplementation is considered.

Northern Hemisphere Autumn and Winter Climate Responses to Realistic Tibetan Plateau and Mongolia Snow Anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Q.; Yao, Y.; Liu, S.

2017-12-01

The impact of the Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) circulation is first investigated by applying a lagged maximum covariance analysis (MCA) to monthly satellite-derived SCE and NCEP reanalysis data. Wintertime atmospheric signals significantly correlated with persistently autumn-early winter SCE anomalies are found in the leading two MCA modes. The first MCA mode indicates the effect of Eurasian snow cover anomalies on the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO). The second MCA mode links a persistent dipole of autumn and winter SCE anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Mongolia with winter Pacific-North America (PNA)-like atmospheric variations. A modeling study further investigates atmospheric responses to above TP and Mongolia snow forcings using multiple ensemble transient integrations of the CAM4 and CLM4.0 models. Model boundary conditions are based on climatological sea ice extent (SIE) and sea surface temperature (SST), and satellite observations of SCE and snow water equivalent (SWE) over the TP and Mongolia from October to March in 1997/98 (heavy TP and light Mongolia snow) and 1984/85 (light TP and heavy Mongolia snow), with model derived SCE and SWE elsewhere. In various forcing experiments, the ensemble-mean difference between simulations with these two extreme snow states identifies local, distant, concurrent, and delayed climatic responses. The main atmospheric responses to a dipole of high TP and low Mongolia SCE persisting from October to March (versus the opposite extreme) are strong TP surface cooling, warming in the surrounding China and Mongolia region, and a winter positive PNA-like response. The localized response is maintained by persistent diabatic cooling or heating, and the remote PNA response results mainly from the increased horizontal eastward propagation of stationary Rossby wave energy due to persistent TP snow forcing and also a winter transient eddy feedback mechanism. With a less persistent dipole anomaly in autumn or winter only, local responses are similar depending on the specific anomalies, but the winter PNA-like response is nearly absent or noticeably reduced.

Thermal conditions in the bathroom in winter and summer, and physiological responses of the elderly during bathing.

PubMed

Kanda, K; Tsuchiya, J; Seto, M; Ohnaka, T; Tochihara, Y

1995-06-01

Thermal conditions in the bathroom and physiological responses were examined during winter and summer. The subjects were 22 male and 20 female elderly people, between 65 and 88 years old living in 25 houses in Gunma Prefecture, Japan. Heart rate, blood pressure, skin temperature and thermal sensation were measured during bathing. Changes in thermal sensation due to bathing were assessed in the living room and dressing room on a 9-point scale. Then they were asked about the purposes of bathing and the facilities of bathroom and dressing room. The results are summarized as follows: 1. The purpose of bathing in winter was to warm up for more than 80% of the subjects. In summer, all subjects felt refreshed by bathing. Eighty-five percent of the subjects took a bath every other day in both seasons. 2. Fifty-two percent of the bathrooms had no ventilating fans and 32% had no exclusive dressing rooms. 3. The average room temperature in the dressing rooms was 13-14 degrees C in winter. Thermal sensation was 'cool', 'slightly cold' or 'cold' for more than two-thirds of the subjects when they were partially nude, and there were no heaters in most dressing rooms. 4. The heart rate increased steadily, and reached a maximum value in a partially dressed condition in both seasons. 5. In winter, a marked increase of systolic blood pressure was observed in the partially nude condition. There was a significant difference between the before bathing condition and partially nude condition in winter.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Study on the glaze ice accretion of wind turbine with various chord lengths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Jian; Liu, Maolian; Wang, Ruiqi; Wang, Yuhang

2018-02-01

Wind turbine icing often occurs in winter, which changes the aerodynamic characteristics of the blades and reduces the work efficiency of the wind turbine. In this paper, the glaze ice model is established for horizontal-axis wind turbine in 3-D. The model contains the grid generation, two-phase simulation, heat and mass transfer. Results show that smaller wind turbine suffers from more serious icing problem, which reflects on a larger ice thickness. Both the collision efficiency and heat transfer coefficient increase under smaller size condition.

Snowplow simulator training evaluation : research notes

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-11-01

Two years of experience with simulator training for snowplow operators in Arizona leaves an optimistic feeling about the potential of simulators as an integral part of comprehensive winter maintenance and driver-skill training programs. Further resea...

Root growth, water uptake, and sap flow of winter wheat in response to different soil water conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Gaochao; Vanderborght, Jan; Langensiepen, Matthias; Schnepf, Andrea; Hüging, Hubert; Vereecken, Harry

2018-04-01

How much water can be taken up by roots and how this depends on the root and water distributions in the root zone are important questions that need to be answered to describe water fluxes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Physically based root water uptake (RWU) models that relate RWU to transpiration, root density, and water potential distributions have been developed but used or tested far less. This study aims at evaluating the simulated RWU of winter wheat using the empirical Feddes-Jarvis (FJ) model and the physically based Couvreur (C) model for different soil water conditions and soil textures compared to sap flow measurements. Soil water content (SWC), water potential, and root development were monitored noninvasively at six soil depths in two rhizotron facilities that were constructed in two soil textures: stony vs. silty, with each of three water treatments: sheltered, rainfed, and irrigated. Soil and root parameters of the two models were derived from inverse modeling and simulated RWU was compared with sap flow measurements for validation. The different soil types and water treatments resulted in different crop biomass, root densities, and root distributions with depth. The two models simulated the lowest RWU in the sheltered plot of the stony soil where RWU was also lower than the potential RWU. In the silty soil, simulated RWU was equal to the potential uptake for all treatments. The variation of simulated RWU among the different plots agreed well with measured sap flow but the C model predicted the ratios of the transpiration fluxes in the two soil types slightly better than the FJ model. The root hydraulic parameters of the C model could be constrained by the field data but not the water stress parameters of the FJ model. This was attributed to differences in root densities between the different soils and treatments which are accounted for by the C model, whereas the FJ model only considers normalized root densities. The impact of differences in root density on RWU could be accounted for directly by the physically based RWU model but not by empirical models that use normalized root density functions.

Defining Winter and Identifying Synoptic Air Mass Change in the Northeast and Northern Plains U.S. since 1950

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, C. J.; Pennington, D.; Beitscher, M. R.; Godek, M. L.

2017-12-01

Understanding and forecasting the characteristics of winter weather change in the northern U.S. is vital to regional economy, agriculture, tourism and resident life. This is especially true in the Northeast and Northern Plains where substantial changes to the winter season have already been documented in the atmospheric science and biological literature. As there is no single established definition of `winter', this research attempts to identify the winter season in both regions utilizing a synoptic climatological approach with air mass frequencies. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is used to determine the daily air mass/ weather type conditions since 1950 at 40 locations across the two regions. Annual frequencies are first computed as a baseline reference. Then winter air mass frequencies and departures from normal are calculated to define the season along with the statistical significance. Once the synoptic winter is established, long-term regional changes to the season and significance are explored. As evident global changes have occurred after 1975, an Early period of years prior to 1975 and a Late set for all years following this date are compared. Early and Late record synoptic changes are then examined to assess any thermal and moisture condition changes of the regional winter air masses over time. Cold to moderately dry air masses dominate annually in both regions. Northeast winters are also characterized by cold to moderate dry air masses, with coastal locations experiencing more Moist Polar types. The Northern Plains winters are dominated by cold, dry air masses in the east and cold to moderate dry air masses in the west. Prior to 1975, Northeast winters are defined by an increase in cooler and wetter air masses. Dry Tropical air masses only occur in this region after 1975. Northern Plains winters are also characterized by more cold, dry air masses prior to 1975. More Dry Moderate and Moist Moderate air masses have occurred since 1975. These results demonstrate that Northeast winters have air mass conditions that have become warmer and drier in recent decades. Additionally, Northern Plains winters have air mass setups that have become warmer and more moist since the mid 1970s.

Strong Costs and Benefits of Winter Acclimatization in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Schou, Mads Fristrup; Loeschcke, Volker; Kristensen, Torsten Nygaard

2015-01-01

Studies on thermal acclimation in insects are often performed on animals acclimated in the laboratory under conditions that are not ecologically relevant. Costs and benefits of acclimation responses under such conditions may not reflect costs and benefits in natural populations subjected to daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations. Here we estimated costs and benefits in thermal tolerance limits in relation to winter acclimatization of Drosophila melanogaster. We sampled flies from a natural habitat during winter in Denmark (field flies) and compared heat and cold tolerance of these to that of flies collected from the same natural population, but acclimated to 25 °C or 13 °C in the laboratory (laboratory flies). We further obtained thermal performance curves for egg-to-adult viability of field and laboratory (25 °C) flies, to estimate possible cross-generational effects of acclimation. We found much higher cold tolerance and a lowered heat tolerance in field flies compared to laboratory flies reared at 25 °C. Flies reared in the laboratory at 13 °C exhibited the same thermal cost-benefit relations as the winter acclimatized flies. We also found a cost of winter acclimatization in terms of decreased egg-to-adult viability at high temperatures of eggs laid by winter acclimatized flies. Based on our findings we suggest that winter acclimatization in nature can induce strong benefits in terms of increased cold tolerance. These benefits can be reproduced in the laboratory under ecologically relevant rearing and testing conditions, and should be incorporated in species distribution modelling. Winter acclimatization also leads to decreased heat tolerance. This may create a mismatch between acclimation responses and the thermal environment, e.g. if temperatures suddenly increase during spring, under current and expected more variable future climatic conditions. PMID:26075607

Strong Costs and Benefits of Winter Acclimatization in Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Schou, Mads Fristrup; Loeschcke, Volker; Kristensen, Torsten Nygaard

2015-01-01

Studies on thermal acclimation in insects are often performed on animals acclimated in the laboratory under conditions that are not ecologically relevant. Costs and benefits of acclimation responses under such conditions may not reflect costs and benefits in natural populations subjected to daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations. Here we estimated costs and benefits in thermal tolerance limits in relation to winter acclimatization of Drosophila melanogaster. We sampled flies from a natural habitat during winter in Denmark (field flies) and compared heat and cold tolerance of these to that of flies collected from the same natural population, but acclimated to 25 °C or 13 °C in the laboratory (laboratory flies). We further obtained thermal performance curves for egg-to-adult viability of field and laboratory (25 °C) flies, to estimate possible cross-generational effects of acclimation. We found much higher cold tolerance and a lowered heat tolerance in field flies compared to laboratory flies reared at 25 °C. Flies reared in the laboratory at 13 °C exhibited the same thermal cost-benefit relations as the winter acclimatized flies. We also found a cost of winter acclimatization in terms of decreased egg-to-adult viability at high temperatures of eggs laid by winter acclimatized flies. Based on our findings we suggest that winter acclimatization in nature can induce strong benefits in terms of increased cold tolerance. These benefits can be reproduced in the laboratory under ecologically relevant rearing and testing conditions, and should be incorporated in species distribution modelling. Winter acclimatization also leads to decreased heat tolerance. This may create a mismatch between acclimation responses and the thermal environment, e.g. if temperatures suddenly increase during spring, under current and expected more variable future climatic conditions.

Characteristics of foraging sites and protein status in wintering muskoxen: insights from isotopes of nitrogen

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gustine, David D.; Barboza, Perry S.; Lawler, James P.; Arthur, Stephen M.; Shults, Brad S.; Persons, Kate; Adams, Layne G.

2011-01-01

Identifying links between nutritional condition of individuals and population trajectories greatly enhances our understanding of the ecology, conservation, and management of wildlife. For northern ungulates, the potential impacts of a changing climate to populations are predicted to be nutritionally mediated through an increase in the severity and variance in winter conditions. Foraging conditions and the availability of body protein as a store for reproduction in late winter may constrain productivity in northern ungulates, yet the link between characteristics of wintering habitats and protein status has not been established for a wild ungulate. We used a non‐invasive proxy of protein status derived from isotopes of N in excreta to evaluate the influence of winter habitats on the protein status of muskoxen in three populations in Alaska (2005–2008). Multiple regression and an information‐theoretic approach were used to compare models that evaluated the influence of population, year, and characteristics of foraging sites (components of diet and physiography) on protein status for groups of muskoxen. The observed variance in protein status among groups of muskoxen across populations and years was partially explained (45%) by local foraging conditions that affected forage availability. Protein status improved for groups of muskoxen as the amount of graminoids in the diet increased (−0.430 ± 0.31, β± 95% CI) and elevation of foraging sites decreased (0.824 ± 0.67). Resources available for reproduction in muskoxen are highly dependent upon demographic, environmental, and physiographic constraints that affect forage availability in winter. Due to their very sedentary nature in winter, muskoxen are highly susceptible to localized foraging conditions; therefore, the spatial variance in resource availability may exert a strong effect on productivity. Consequently, there is a clear need to account for climate–topography effects in winter at multiple scales when predicting the potential impacts of climatic shifts on population trajectories of muskoxen.

A GCM simulation of the earth-atmosphere radiation balance for winter and summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, M. L. C.

1979-01-01

The radiation balance of the earth-atmosphere system simulated by using the general circulation model (GCM) of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is examined in regards to its graphical distribution, zonally-averaged distribution, and global mean. Most of the main features of the radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere are reasonably simulated, with some differences in the detailed structure of the patterns and intensities for both summer and winter in comparison with values as derived from Nimbus and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) satellite observations. Both the capability and defects of the model are discussed.

European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Strandberg, Gustav; Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Jacob, Daniela; Keuler, Klaus; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; Schär, Christoph; Somot, Samuel; Sørland, Silje Lund; Teichmann, Claas; Vautard, Robert

2018-05-01

We investigate European regional climate change for time periods when the global mean temperature has increased by 1.5 and 2 °C compared to pre-industrial conditions. Results are based on regional downscaling of transient climate change simulations for the 21st century with global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth-phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We use an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations undertaken at a computational grid of 12.5 km horizontal resolution covering Europe. The ensemble consists of a range of RCMs that have been used for downscaling different GCMs under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. The results indicate considerable near-surface warming already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming. Regional warming exceeds that of the global mean in most parts of Europe, being the strongest in the northernmost parts of Europe in winter and in the southernmost parts of Europe together with parts of Scandinavia in summer. Changes in precipitation, which are less robust than the ones in temperature, include increases in the north and decreases in the south with a borderline that migrates from a northerly position in summer to a southerly one in winter. Some of these changes are already seen at 1.5 °C of warming but are larger and more robust at 2 °C. Changes in near-surface wind speed are associated with a large spread among individual ensemble members at both warming levels. Relatively large areas over the North Atlantic and some parts of the continent show decreasing wind speed while some ocean areas in the far north show increasing wind speed. The changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speed are shown to be modified by changes in mean sea level pressure, indicating a strong relationship with the large-scale circulation and its internal variability on decade-long timescales. By comparing to a larger ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs we find that the RCMs can alter the results, leading either to attenuation or amplification of the climate change signal in the underlying GCMs. We find that the RCMs tend to produce less warming and more precipitation (or less drying) in many areas in both winter and summer.

Variability in Antarctic ozone loss in the last decade (2004-2013): high-resolution simulations compared to Aura MLS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttippurath, J.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Lefèvre, F.; Santee, M. L.; Froidevaux, L.; Hauchecorne, A.

2015-09-01

A detailed analysis of the polar ozone loss processes during 10 recent Antarctic winters is presented with high-resolution MIMOSA-CHIM (Modèle Isentrope du transport Méso-échelle de l'Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection avec CHIMie) model simulations and high-frequency polar vortex observations from the Aura microwave limb sounder (MLS) instrument. The high-frequency measurements and simulations help to characterize the winters and assist the interpretation of interannual variability better than either data or simulations alone. Our model results for the Antarctic winters of 2004-2013 show that chemical ozone loss starts in the edge region of the vortex at equivalent latitudes (EqLs) of 65-67° S in mid-June-July. The loss progresses with time at higher EqLs and intensifies during August-September over the range 400-600 K. The loss peaks in late September-early October, when all EqLs (65-83° S) show a similar loss and the maximum loss (> 2 ppmv - parts per million by volume) is found over a broad vertical range of 475-550 K. In the lower stratosphere, most winters show similar ozone loss and production rates. In general, at 500 K, the loss rates are about 2-3 ppbv sh-1 (parts per billion by volume per sunlit hour) in July and 4-5 ppbv sh-1 in August-mid-September, while they drop rapidly to 0 by mid-October. In the middle stratosphere, the loss rates are about 3-5 ppbv sh-1 in July-August and October at 675 K. On average, the MIMOSA-CHIM simulations show that the very cold winters of 2005 and 2006 exhibit a maximum loss of ~ 3.5 ppmv around 550 K or about 149-173 DU over 350-850 K, and the warmer winters of 2004, 2010, and 2012 show a loss of ~ 2.6 ppmv around 475-500 K or 131-154 DU over 350-850 K. The winters of 2007, 2008, and 2011 were moderately cold, and thus both ozone loss and peak loss altitudes are between these two ranges (3 ppmv around 500 K or 150 ± 10 DU). The modeled ozone loss values are in reasonably good agreement with those estimated from Aura MLS measurements, but the model underestimates the observed ClO, largely due to the slower vertical descent in the model during spring.

Growth, survival, and fatty acid composition of coppernose bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus subspecies) offered different winter feeding regimes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Winter fish losses are routinely reported by Arkansas sportfish producers in the spring. Juvenile centrarchid species (less than 7.6 cm) are quite susceptible to harsh winter conditions. While some of these winter fish losses can be attributed to predation by fish eating birds and water quality fact...

Winter Ecology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Birkeland, Karl W.; Halfpenny, James C.

1987-01-01

Discusses some of the ecological variables involved with plant and animal survival during the winter months. Addresses the effects of changing climatic conditions on habitats, foot-loading indexes, and the overall concept of adaptation. Provides some simple teaching activities dealing with winter survival. (TW)

Past, present, and future changes in marine biogeochemistry in the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Six, Katharina; Segschneider, Joachim

2014-05-01

The work presented here aims at a better understanding of the Asian Monsoon system including the marine biogeochemistry in the Arabian Sea. Changes in the past as recorded in marine sediments, as simulated over the past 1000 years, and under forcing by anthropogenic CO2 emissions by numerical model simulations are investigated. The investigation is based on three columns: a sediment core taken in the Arabian Sea (core SO130-275KL taken off Pakistan), a pre-industrial model run from 850 - 1850 with the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) including the marine and terrestrial carbon cycle and forced by solar variations and volcanic eruptions, and a continuation of this simulation to 2005 under the historical anthropogenic CO2 forcing which allows a comparison with present day climatology. In a first step we compare model results for a set of biogeochemical tracers within the water column and the sediment mixed with observations in the Arabian Sea. We further analyse correlations between Monsoon forcing (represented by zonal wind speed at 850 hPA, short wave radiation, Indian summer precipitation) and biogeochemical parameters, with particular focus on denitrification rates and fluxes to the sediment. This analysis is focused on three regions: off Somalia and off Oman for the summer monsoon, and the central Arabian Sea for the winter monsoon. For the summer monsoon, the highest correlation is found between zonal wind speed and calcite flux to the sediment off Somalia, for the winter monsoon the correlation is highest for short wave radiation in the central Arabian Sea. Time series of mixed layer depth and integrated primary production within the upper 100 m of the ocean from a CMIP5 historical experiment (1850-2005) show, at the location of the sediment core SO130-275KL, little correlation during the summer monsoon, but good correlation during the winter monsoon. As a result, the sediment core is more likely to document winter monsoon conditions. Moreover, the model simulates denitrification in the oxygen minimum zones of the Indian Ocean as expected. More interesting, when comparing pre-industrial, present, and future states, it is shown that dentrification shows bipolar anomalies in the present state with a positive anomaly in the eastern Arabian Sea, and a negative anomaly in the western Arabian Sea. For 2100, when the model is forced by the RCP8.5 scenario, anomalies of denitrification are negative in the entire Arabian Sea.

Preparations for Severe Winter Conditions by Emergency Health Personnel in Turkey.

PubMed

Calışkan, Cüneyt; Algan, Aysun; Koçak, Hüseyin; Biçer, Burcu Küçük; Sengelen, Meltem; Cakir, Banu

2014-04-23

Emergency and core ambulance personnel work under all environmental conditions, including severe weather condtions. We evaluated emergency medical personnel in Çanakkale, Turkey, for their degree of preparedness. A descriptive study was conducted in Çanakkale, Turkey, within 112 emergency service units and their 17 district stations. Surveys were developed to measure the level of preparedness for serious winter conditions that individual workers made for themselves, their homes, and their cars. Of the 167 survey participants, the mean age was 29.8 ± 7.9 years; 52.7% were women; more than half (54.75%) were emergency medical technicians; and 53.3% were married. Only 10.4% of those who heated their homes with natural gas had carbon monoxide detectors. Scores relating to household and individual preparation for severe winter conditions increased by participants' age (P < .003), being married (P < .000) and working in the city center (P < .021); and for men whose cars were equipped with tow ropes, extra clothing, and snow tires (P < .05). Absenteeism was higher for central-city personnel than district workers because they were less prepared for harsh winter conditions (P = .016). Many of the surveyed emergency health personel demonstrated insufficient preparations for serious winter conditions. To increase the safety and efficiency of emergency medical personnel, educational training programs should be rountinely conducted. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2014;0:1-4).

Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

2014-12-01

Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature of the teleconnection, a novel result that provides context for understanding the climate processes governing the response of moisture variability to future climate change.

The Response of a Spectral General Circulation Model to Refinements in Radiative Processes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramanathan, V.; Pitcher, Eric J.; Malone, Robert C.; Blackmon, Maurice L.

1983-03-01

We present here results and analyses of a series of numerical experiments performed with a spectral general circulation model (GCM). The purpose of the GCM experiments is to examine the role of radiation/cloud processes in the general circulation of the troposphere and stratosphere. The experiments were primarily motivated by the significant improvements in the GCM zonal mean simulation as refinements were made in the model treatment of clear-sky radiation and cloud-radiative interactions. The GCM with the improved cloud/radiation model is able to reproduce many observed features, such as: a clear separation between the wintertime tropospheric jet and the polar night jet; winter polar stratospheric temperatures of about 200 K; interhemispheric and seasonal asymmetries in the zonal winds.In a set of sensitivity experiments, we have stripped the cloud/radiation model of its improvements, the result being a significant degradation of the zonal mean simulations by the GCM. Through these experiments we have been able to identify the processes that are responsible for the improved GCM simulations: (i) careful treatment of the upper boundary condition for O3 solar heating; (ii) temperature dependence of longwave cooling by CO2 15 m bands., (iii) vertical distribution of H2O that minimizes the lower stratospheric H2O longwave cooling; (iv) dependence of cirrus emissivity on cloud liquid water content.Comparison of the GCM simulations, with and without the cloud/radiation improvements, reveals the nature and magnitude of the following radiative-dynamical interactions: (i) the temperature decrease (due to errors in radiative heating) within the winter polar stratosphere is much larger than can be accounted for by purely radiative adjustment; (ii) the role of dynamics in maintaining the winter polar stratosphere thermal structure is greatly diminished in the GCM with the degraded treatment of radiation; (iii) the radiative and radiative-dynamical response times of the atmosphere vary from periods of less than two weeks in the lower troposphere to roughly three months in the polar lower stratosphere; (iv) within the stratosphere, the radiative response times vary significantly with temperature, with the winter polar values larger than the summer polar values by as much as a factor of 2.5.Cirrus clouds, if their emissivities are arbitrarily prescribed to be black, unrealistically enhance the radiative cooling of the polar troposphere above 8 km. This results in a meridional temperature gradient much stronger than that which is observed. We employ a more realistic parameterization that accounts for the non-blackness of cirrus, and we describe the resulting improvements in the model simulation of zonal winds, temperatures, and radiation budget.

The Snow Must Go On: Ground Ice Encasement, Snow Compaction and Absence of Snow Differently Cause Soil Hypoxia, CO2 Accumulation and Tree Seedling Damage in Boreal Forest

PubMed Central

Vuosku, Jaana; Ovaskainen, Anu; Stark, Sari; Rautio, Pasi

2016-01-01

At high latitudes, the climate has warmed at twice the rate of the global average with most changes observed in autumn, winter and spring. Increasing winter temperatures and wide temperature fluctuations are leading to more frequent rain-on-snow events and freeze-thaw cycles causing snow compaction and formation of ice layers in the snowpack, thus creating ice encasement (IE). By decreasing the snowpack insulation capacity and restricting soil-atmosphere gas exchange, modification of the snow properties may lead to colder soil but also to hypoxia and accumulation of trace gases in the subnivean environment. To test the effects of these overwintering conditions changes on plant winter survival and growth, we established a snow manipulation experiment in a coniferous forest in Northern Finland with Norway spruce and Scots pine seedlings. In addition to ambient conditions and prevention of IE, we applied three snow manipulation levels: IE created by artificial rain-on-snow events, snow compaction and complete snow removal. Snow removal led to deeper soil frost during winter, but no clear effect of IE or snow compaction done in early winter was observed on soil temperature. Hypoxia and accumulation of CO2 were highest in the IE plots but, more importantly, the duration of CO2 concentration above 5% was 17 days in IE plots compared to 0 days in ambient plots. IE was the most damaging winter condition for both species, decreasing the proportion of healthy seedlings by 47% for spruce and 76% for pine compared to ambient conditions. Seedlings in all three treatments tended to grow less than seedlings in ambient conditions but only IE had a significant effect on spruce growth. Our results demonstrate a negative impact of winter climate change on boreal forest regeneration and productivity. Changing snow conditions may thus partially mitigate the positive effect of increasing growing season temperatures on boreal forest productivity. PMID:27254100

The Snow Must Go On: Ground Ice Encasement, Snow Compaction and Absence of Snow Differently Cause Soil Hypoxia, CO2 Accumulation and Tree Seedling Damage in Boreal Forest.

PubMed

Martz, Françoise; Vuosku, Jaana; Ovaskainen, Anu; Stark, Sari; Rautio, Pasi

2016-01-01

At high latitudes, the climate has warmed at twice the rate of the global average with most changes observed in autumn, winter and spring. Increasing winter temperatures and wide temperature fluctuations are leading to more frequent rain-on-snow events and freeze-thaw cycles causing snow compaction and formation of ice layers in the snowpack, thus creating ice encasement (IE). By decreasing the snowpack insulation capacity and restricting soil-atmosphere gas exchange, modification of the snow properties may lead to colder soil but also to hypoxia and accumulation of trace gases in the subnivean environment. To test the effects of these overwintering conditions changes on plant winter survival and growth, we established a snow manipulation experiment in a coniferous forest in Northern Finland with Norway spruce and Scots pine seedlings. In addition to ambient conditions and prevention of IE, we applied three snow manipulation levels: IE created by artificial rain-on-snow events, snow compaction and complete snow removal. Snow removal led to deeper soil frost during winter, but no clear effect of IE or snow compaction done in early winter was observed on soil temperature. Hypoxia and accumulation of CO2 were highest in the IE plots but, more importantly, the duration of CO2 concentration above 5% was 17 days in IE plots compared to 0 days in ambient plots. IE was the most damaging winter condition for both species, decreasing the proportion of healthy seedlings by 47% for spruce and 76% for pine compared to ambient conditions. Seedlings in all three treatments tended to grow less than seedlings in ambient conditions but only IE had a significant effect on spruce growth. Our results demonstrate a negative impact of winter climate change on boreal forest regeneration and productivity. Changing snow conditions may thus partially mitigate the positive effect of increasing growing season temperatures on boreal forest productivity.

Computer-Assisted Interactive Documentary and Performance Arts in Illimitable Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, William Michael

Winter can bring significant snow storm systems or nor'easters to New England. Understanding each factor which can affect nor'easters will allow forecasters to better predict the subsequent weather conditions. One important parameter is the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Atlantic Ocean, where many of these systems strengthen and gain much of their structure. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to simulate four different nor'easters (Mar 2007, Dec 2007, Jan 2008, Dec 2010) using both observed and warmed SSTs. For the wanner SST simulations, the SSTs over the model domain were increased by 1°C. This change increased the total surface heat fluxes in all of the storms, and the resulting simulated storms were all more intense. The influence on the amount of snowfall over land was highly variable, depending on how close to the coastline the storms were and temperatures across the region.

Integrating Water Supply Constraints into Irrigated Agricultural Simulations of California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winter, Jonathan M.; Young, Charles A.; Mehta, Vishal K.; Ruane, Alex C.; Azarderakhsh, Marzieh; Davitt, Aaron; McDonald, Kyle; Haden, Van R.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.

2017-01-01

Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water demand from plants and water supply from irrigation systems. We coupled the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) and Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) to link regional water supplies and management with field-level water demand and crop growth. WEAP-DSSAT was deployed and evaluated over Yolo County in California for corn, rice, and wheat. WEAP-DSSAT is able to reproduce the results of DSSAT under well-watered conditions and reasonably simulate observed mean yields, but has difficulty capturing yield interannual variability. Constraining irrigation supply to surface water alone reduces yields for all three crops during the 1987-1992 drought. Corn yields are reduced proportionally with water allocation, rice yield reductions are more binary based on sufficient water for flooding, and wheat yields are least sensitive to irrigation constraints as winter wheat is grown during the wet season.

Lighting Condition Analysis for Mars Moon Phobos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Zu Qun; Crues, Edwin Z.; Bielski, Paul; De Carufel, Guy

2016-01-01

A manned mission to Phobos may be an important precursor and catalyst for the human exploration of Mars, as it will fully demonstrate the technologies for a successful Mars mission. A comprehensive understanding of Phobos' environment such as lighting condition and gravitational acceleration are essential to the mission success. The lighting condition is one of many critical factors for landing zone selection, vehicle power subsystem design, and surface mobility vehicle path planning. Due to the orbital characteristic of Phobos, the lighting condition will change dramatically from one Martian season to another. This study uses high fidelity computer simulation to investigate the lighting conditions, specifically the solar radiation flux over the surface, on Phobos. Ephemeris data from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) DE405 model was used to model the state of the Sun, the Earth, and Mars. An occultation model was developed to simulate Phobos' self-shadowing and its solar eclipses by Mars. The propagated Phobos' state was compared with data from JPL's Horizon system to ensure the accuracy of the result. Results for Phobos lighting condition over one Martian year are presented in this paper, which include length of solar eclipse, average solar radiation intensity, surface exposure time, total maximum solar energy, and total surface solar energy (constrained by incident angle). The results show that Phobos' solar eclipse time changes throughout the Martian year with the maximum eclipse time occurring during the Martian spring and fall equinox and no solar eclipse during the Martian summer and winter solstice. Solar radiation intensity is close to minimum at the summer solstice and close to maximum at the winter solstice. Total surface exposure time is longer near the north pole and around the anti- Mars point. Total maximum solar energy is larger around the anti-Mars point. Total surface solar energy is higher around the anti-Mars point near the equator. The results from this study and others like it will be important in determining landing site selection, vehicle system design and mission operations for the human exploration of Phobos and subsequently Mars.

Habitat conditions associated with lynx hunting behavior during winter in northern Washington

Treesearch

Benjamin T. Maletzke; Gary M. Koehler; Robert B. Wielgus; Keith B. Aubry; Marc A. Evans

2008-01-01

Effectively managing habitat for threatened populations of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) requires knowledge of habitat conditions that provide for the ecological needs of lynx. We snow-tracked lynx to identify habitat conditions associated with hunting behavior and predation during winters of 2002-2003 and 2003-2004 in the northern Cascade Range in...

Evaluation of the Simulation of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Coverages by Eleven Major Global Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parksinson, Claire; Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.; Cavalieri, Donald J.

2005-01-01

Comparison of polar sea ice results from 11 major global climate models and satellite-derived observations for 1979-2004 reveals that each of the models is simulating seasonal cycles that are phased at least approximately correctly in both hemispheres. Each is also simulating various key aspects of the observed ice cover distributions, such as winter ice not only throughout the central Arctic basin but also throughout Hudson Bay, despite its relatively low latitudes. However, some of the models simulate too much ice, others too little ice (in some cases varying depending on hemisphere and/or season), and some match the observations better in one season versus another. Several models do noticeably better in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, and one does noticeably better in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere all simulate monthly average ice extents to within +/-5.1 x 10(exp 6)sq km of the observed ice extent throughout the year; and in the Southern Hemisphere all except one simulate the monthly averages to within +/-6.3 x 10(exp 6) sq km of the observed values. All the models properly simulate a lack of winter ice to the west of Norway; however, most do not obtain as much absence of ice immediately north of Norway as the observations show, suggesting an under simulation of the North Atlantic Current. The spread in monthly averaged ice extents amongst the 11 model simulations is greater in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere and greatest in the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring.

Detectability of change in winter precipitation within mountain landscapes: Spatial patterns and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silverman, N. L.; Maneta, M. P.

2016-06-01

Detecting long-term change in seasonal precipitation using ground observations is dependent on the representativity of the point measurement to the surrounding landscape. In mountainous regions, representativity can be poor and lead to large uncertainties in precipitation estimates at high elevations or in areas where observations are sparse. If the uncertainty in the estimate is large compared to the long-term shifts in precipitation, then the change will likely go undetected. In this analysis, we examine the minimum detectable change across mountainous terrain in western Montana, USA. We ask the question: What is the minimum amount of change that is necessary to be detected using our best estimates of precipitation in complex terrain? We evaluate the spatial uncertainty in the precipitation estimates by conditioning historic regional climate model simulations to ground observations using Bayesian inference. By using this uncertainty as a null hypothesis, we test for detectability across the study region. To provide context for the detectability calculations, we look at a range of future scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble downscaled to 4 km resolution using the MACAv2-METDATA data set. When using the ensemble averages we find that approximately 65% of the significant increases in winter precipitation go undetected at midelevations. At high elevation, approximately 75% of significant increases in winter precipitation are undetectable. Areas where change can be detected are largely controlled by topographic features. Elevation and aspect are key characteristics that determine whether or not changes in winter precipitation can be detected. Furthermore, we find that undetected increases in winter precipitation at high elevation will likely remain as snow under climate change scenarios. Therefore, there is potential for these areas to offset snowpack loss at lower elevations and confound the effects of climate change on water resources.

Effects of changing climate and cultivar on the phenology and yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Kenan; Yang, Xiaoguang; Tian, Hanqin; Pan, Shufen; Liu, Zhijuan; Lu, Shuo

2016-01-01

Understanding how changing climate and cultivars influence crop phenology and potential yield is essential for crop adaptation to future climate change. In this study, crop and daily weather data collected from six sites across the North China Plain were used to drive a crop model to analyze the impacts of climate change and cultivar development on the phenology and production of winter wheat from 1981 to 2005. Results showed that both the growth period (GP) and the vegetative growth period (VGP) decreased during the study period, whereas changes in the reproductive growth period (RGP) either increased slightly or had no significant trend. Although new cultivars could prolong the winter wheat phenology (0.3˜3.8 days per decade for GP), climate warming impacts were more significant and mainly accounted for the changes. The harvest index and kernel number per stem weight have significantly increased. Model simulation indicated that the yield of winter wheat exhibited increases (5.0˜19.4 %) if new cultivars were applied. Climate change demonstrated a negative effect on winter wheat yield as suggested by the simulation driven by climate data only (-3.3 to -54.8 kg ha-1 year-1, except for Lushi). Results of this study also indicated that winter wheat cultivar development can compensate for the negative effects of future climatic change.

Effects of changing climate and cultivar on the phenology and yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain.

PubMed

Li, Kenan; Yang, Xiaoguang; Tian, Hanqin; Pan, Shufen; Liu, Zhijuan; Lu, Shuo

2016-01-01

Understanding how changing climate and cultivars influence crop phenology and potential yield is essential for crop adaptation to future climate change. In this study, crop and daily weather data collected from six sites across the North China Plain were used to drive a crop model to analyze the impacts of climate change and cultivar development on the phenology and production of winter wheat from 1981 to 2005. Results showed that both the growth period (GP) and the vegetative growth period (VGP) decreased during the study period, whereas changes in the reproductive growth period (RGP) either increased slightly or had no significant trend. Although new cultivars could prolong the winter wheat phenology (0.3∼3.8 days per decade for GP), climate warming impacts were more significant and mainly accounted for the changes. The harvest index and kernel number per stem weight have significantly increased. Model simulation indicated that the yield of winter wheat exhibited increases (5.0∼19.4%) if new cultivars were applied. Climate change demonstrated a negative effect on winter wheat yield as suggested by the simulation driven by climate data only (-3.3 to -54.8 kg ha(-1) year(-1), except for Lushi). Results of this study also indicated that winter wheat cultivar development can compensate for the negative effects of future climatic change.

Streamflow changes in the Sierra Nevada, California, simulated using a statistically downscaled general circulation model scenario of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, Robert L.; Dettinger, Michael D.

2000-01-01

Simulations of future climate using general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. Of less certainty is the extent to which regional scale (i.e., sub-GCM grid) environmental processes will be affected. In this chapter, a range of downscaling techniques are critiqued. Then a relatively simple (yet robust) statistical downscaling technique and its use in the modelling of future runoff scenarios for three river basins in the Sierra Nevada, California, is described. This region was selected because GCM experiments driven by combined greenhouse-gas and sulphate-aerosol forcings consistently show major changes in the hydro-climate of the southwest United States by the end of the 21st century. The regression-based downscaling method was used to simulate daily rainfall and temperature series for streamflow modelling in three Californian river basins under current-and future-climate conditions. The downscaling involved just three predictor variables (specific humidity, zonal velocity component of airflow, and 500 hPa geopotential heights) supplied by the U.K. Meteorological Office couple ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM2) for the grid point nearest the target basins. When evaluated using independent data, the model showed reasonable skill at reproducing observed area-average precipitation, temperature, and concomitant streamflow variations. Overall, the downscaled data resulted in slight underestimates of mean annual streamflow due to underestimates of precipitation in spring and positive temperature biases in winter. Differences in the skill of simulated streamflows amongst the three basins were attributed to the smoothing effects of snowpack on streamflow responses to climate forcing. The Merced and American River basins drain the western, windward slope of the Sierra Nevada and are snowmelt dominated, whereas the Carson River drains the eastern, leeward slope and is a mix of rainfall runoff and snowmelt runoff. Simulated streamflow in the American River responds rapidly and sensitively to daily-scale temperature and precipitation fluctuations and errors; in the Merced and Carson Rivers, the response to the same short-term influences is much less. Consequently, the skill of simulated flows was significantly lower in the American River model than in the Carson and Merced. The physiography of the three basins also accounts for differences in their sensitivities to future climate change. Increases in winter precipitation exceeding +100% coupled with mean temperature rises greater than +2°C result in increased winter streamflows in all three basins. In the Merced and Carson basins, these streamflow increases reflect large changes in winter snowpack, whereas the streamflow changes in the lower elevation American basin are driven primarily by rainfall runoff. Furthermore, reductions in winter snowpack in the American River basin, owing to less precipitation falling as snow and earlier melting of snow at middle elevations, lead to less spring and summer streamflow. Taken collectively, the downscaling results suggest significant changes to both the timing and magnitude of streamflows in the Sierra Nevada by the end of the 21st Century. In the higher elevation basins, the HadCM2 scenario implies more annual streamflow and more streamflow during the spring and summer months that are critical for water-resources management in California. Depending on the relative significance of rainfall runoff and snowmelt, each basin responds in its own way to regional climate forcing. Generally, then, climate scenarios need to be specified — by whatever means — with sufficient temporal and spatial resolution to capture subtle orographic influences if projections of climate-change responses are to be useful and reproducible.

Late winter survival of female mallards in Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dugger, B.D.; Reinecke, K.J.; Fredrickson, L.H.

1994-01-01

Determining factors that limit winter survival of waterfowl is necessary to develop effective management plans. We radiomarked immature and adult female mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) after the 1988 and 1989 hunting seasons in eastcentral Arkansas to test whether natural mortality sources and habitat conditions during late winter limit seasonal survival. We used data from 92 females to calculate survival estimates. We observed no mortalities during 2,510 exposure days, despite differences in habitat conditions between years. We used the binomial distribution to calculate daily and 30-day survival estimates plus 95% confidence intervals of 0.9988 ltoreq 0.9997 ltoreq 1.00 and 0.9648 ltoreq 0.9925 ltoreq 1.00, respectively. Our data indirectly support the hypothesis that hunting mortality and habitat conditions during the hunting season are the major determinants of winter survival for female mallards in Arkansas.

Simulation of thermal environment in a three-layer vinyl greenhouse by natural ventilation control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Tea-Hwan; Shin, Ki-Yeol; Yoon, Si-Won; Im, Yong-Hoon; Chang, Ki-Chang

2017-11-01

A high energy, efficient, harmonious, ecological greenhouse has been highlighted by advanced future agricultural technology recently. This greenhouse is essential for expanding the production cycle toward growth conditions through combined thermal environmental control. However, it has a negative effect on farming income via huge energy supply expenses. Because not only production income, but operating costs related to thermal load for thermal environment control is important in farming income, it needs studies such as a harmonious ecological greenhouse using natural ventilation control. This study is simulated for energy consumption and thermal environmental conditions in a three-layered greenhouse by natural ventilation using window opening. A virtual 3D model of a three-layered greenhouse was designed based on the real one in the Gangneung area. This 3D model was used to calculate a thermal environment state such as indoor temperature, relative humidity, and thermal load in the case of a window opening rate from 0 to 100%. There was also a heat exchange operated for heating or cooling controlled by various setting temperatures. The results show that the cooling load can be reduced by natural ventilation control in the summer season, and the heat exchange capacity for heating can also be simulated for growth conditions in the winter season.

Lake Ice Cover of Shallow Lakes and Climate Interactions in Arctic Regions (1950-2011): SAR Data Analysis and Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surdu, C.; Duguay, C.; Brown, L.; Fernàndez-Prieto, D.; Samuelsson, P.

2012-12-01

Lake ice cover is highly correlated with climatic conditions and has, therefore, been demonstrated to be an essential indicator of climate variability and change. Recent studies have shown that the duration of the lake ice cover has decreased, mainly as a consequence of earlier thaw dates in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere over the last 50 years, mainly as a feedback to increased winter and spring air temperature. In response to projected air temperature and winter precipitation changes by climate models until the end of the 21st century, the timing, duration, and thickness of ice cover on Arctic lakes are expected to be impacted. This, in turn, will likely alter the energy, water, and bio-geochemical cycling in various regions of the Arctic. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3-m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in a smaller fraction of lakes that fully freeze to the bottom at the time of maximum winter ice thickness since thinner ice covers are predicted to develop. Shallow thermokarst lakes of the coastal plain of northern Alaska, and of other similar Arctic regions, have likely been experiencing changes in seasonal ice phenology and thickness over the last few decades but these have not yet been comprehensively documented. Analysis of a 20-year time series of ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and numerical lake ice modeling were employed to determine the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) to climate conditions over the last three decades. New downscaled data specific to the Arctic domain (at a resolution of 0.44 degrees using ERA Interim Reanalysis as boundary condition) produced by the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RCA4) was used to drive the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo) for the period 1950-2011. In order to assess and integrate the SAR-derived observed changes into a longer historical context, and to improve the simulation outputs, CLIMo was also forced with climatic data recorded at the Barrow airport meteorological station since the middle of the 20th century. ERS-1/2 data was used to map areas of the shallow lakes that freeze to bed and the rate at which this occurs during the ice season for the period 1991-2011. The results were compared to daily ice thickness results derived from CLIMo. Analysis from a sub-region of the NSA near Barrow shows that the interannual variability in ice thickness simulated with CLIMo compares favorably with the fraction of lakes that freeze to their bed in winter, thicker ice cover corresponding to a higher ratio of lakes fully frozen to the bottom, as determined from the analysis of SAR data.

Winter movements of adult northern goshawks that nested in southcentral Wyoming

Treesearch

John R. Squires; Leonard F. Ruggiero

1995-01-01

Winter movements of four adult northern goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) that nest in southcentral Wyoming were monitored during the winter of 1992-93. Goshawks initiated fall migrations in early fall (primarily mid-September) while weather conditions are moderate. Female 1 migrated 185 km south of her nest. She wintered in a mountainous area in Colorado at a higher...

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O.; Wang, Jonathan A.; Braun, Peter T.; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-01-01

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico “resurrection experiments” showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation. PMID:27140640

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O; Wang, Jonathan A; Braun, Peter T; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-05-17

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico "resurrection experiments" showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation.

Using Conditional Analysis to Investigate Spatial and Temporal patterns in Upland Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto Ferranti, Emma Jayne; Whyatt, James Duncan; Timmis, Roger James

2010-05-01

The seasonality and characteristics of rainfall in the UK are altering under a changing climate. Summer rainfall is generally decreasing whereas winter rainfall is increasing, particularly in northern and western areas (Maraun et al., 2008) and recent research suggests these rainfall increases are amplified in upland areas (Burt and Ferranti, 2010). Conditional analysis has been used to investigate these rainfall patterns in Cumbria, an upland area in northwest England. Cumbria was selected as an example of a topographically diverse mid-latitude region that has a predominately maritime and westerly-defined climate. Moreover it has a dense network of more than 400 rain gauges that have operated for periods between 1900 and present day. Cumbria has experienced unprecedented flooding in the past decade and understanding the spatial and temporal changes in this and other upland regions is important for water resource and ecosystem management. The conditional analysis method examines the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall under different synoptic conditions and in different geographic sub-regions (Ferranti et al., 2009). A daily synoptic typing scheme, the Lamb Weather Catalogue, was applied to classify rainfall into different weather types, for example: south-westerly, westerly, easterly or cyclonic. Topographic descriptors developed using GIS were used to classify rain gauges into 6 directionally-dependant geographic sub-regions: coastal, windward-lowland, windward-upland, leeward-upland, leeward-lowland, secondary upland. Combining these classification methods enabled seasonal rainfall climatologies to be produced for specific weather types and sub-regions. Winter rainfall climatologies were constructed for all 6 sub-regions for 3 weather types - south-westerly (SW), westerly (W), and cyclonic (C); these weather types contribute more than 50% of total winter rainfall. The frequency of wet-days (>0.3mm), the total winter rainfall and the average wet day rainfall amount were analysed for each rainfall sub-region and weather type from 1961-2007 (Ferranti et al., 2010). The conditional analysis showed total rainfall under SW and W weather types to be increasing, with the greatest increases observed in the upland sub-regions. The increase in total SW rainfall is driven by a greater occurrence of SW rain days, and there has been little change to the average wet-day rainfall amount. The increase in total W rainfall is driven in part by an increase in the frequency of wet-days, but more significantly by an increase in the average wet-day rainfall amount. In contrast, total rainfall under C weather types has decreased. Further analysis will investigate how spring, summer and autumn rainfall climatologies have changed for the different weather types and sub-regions. Conditional analysis that combines GIS and synoptic climatology provides greater insights into the processes underlying readily available meteorological data. Dissecting Cumbrian rainfall data under different synoptic and geographic conditions showed the observed changes in winter rainfall are not uniform for the different weather types, nor for the different geographic sub-regions. These intricate details are often lost during coarser resolution analysis, and conditional analysis will provide a detailed synopsis of Cumbrian rainfall processes against which Regional Climate Model (RCM) performance can be tested. Conventionally RCMs try to simulate composite rainfall over many different weather types and sub-regions and by undertaking conditional validation the model performance for individual processes can be tested. This will help to target improvements in model performance, and ultimately lead to better simulation of rainfall in areas of complex topography. BURT, T. P. & FERRANTI, E. J. S. (2010) Changing patterns of heavy rainfall in upland areas: a case study from northern England. Atmospheric Environment, [in review]. FERRANTI, E. J. S., WHYATT, J. D. & TIMMIS, R. J. (2009) Development and application of topographic descriptors for conditional analysis of rainfall. Atmospheric Science Letters, 10, 177-184. FERRANTI, E. J. S., WHYATT, J. D., TIMMIS, R. J. & DAVIES, G. (2010) Using GIS to investigate spatial and temporal variations in upland rainfall. Transactions in GIS, [in press]. MARAUN, D., OSBORN, T. J. & GILLETT, N. P. (2008) United Kingdom daily precipitation intensity: improved early data, error estimates and an update from 2000 to 2006. International Journal of Climatology, 28, 833-842.

Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartlein, P.J.; Edwards, M.E.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Shafer, Sarah; Anderson, P.M.; Brubaker, L. B; Lozhkin, A. V

2015-01-01

Arctic land-cover changes induced by recent global climate change (e.g., expansion of woody vegetation into tundra and effects of permafrost degradation) are expected to generate further feedbacks to the climate system. Past changes can be used to assess our understanding of feedback mechanisms through a combination of process modeling and paleo-observations. The subcontinental region of Beringia (northeastern Siberia, Alaska, and northwestern Canada) was largely ice-free at the peak of deglacial warming and experienced both major vegetation change and loss of permafrost when many arctic regions were still ice covered. The evolution of Beringian climate at this time was largely driven by global features, such as the amplified seasonal cycle of Northern Hemisphere insolation and changes in global ice volume and atmospheric composition, but changes in regional land-surface controls, such as the widespread development of thaw lakes, the replacement of tundra by deciduous forest or woodland, and the flooding of the Bering–Chukchi land bridge, were probably also important. We examined the sensitivity of Beringia's early Holocene climate to these regional-scale controls using a regional climate model (RegCM). Lateral and oceanic boundary conditions were provided by global climate simulations conducted using the GENESIS V2.01 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a mixed-layer ocean. We carried out two present-day simulations of regional climate – one with modern and one with 11 ka geography – plus another simulation for 6 ka. In addition, we performed five ~ 11 ka climate simulations, each driven by the same global AGCM boundary conditions: (i) 11 ka Control, which represents conditions just prior to the major transitions (exposed land bridge, no thaw lakes or wetlands, widespread tundra vegetation), (ii) sea-level rise, which employed present-day continental outlines, (iii) vegetation change, with deciduous needleleaf and deciduous broadleaf boreal vegetation types distributed as suggested by the paleoecological record, (iv) thaw lakes, which used the present-day distribution of lakes and wetlands, and (v) post-11 ka All, incorporating all boundary conditions changed in experiments (ii)–(iv). We find that regional-scale controls strongly mediate the climate responses to changes in the large-scale controls, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in the simulated climate changes. The change from tundra to deciduous woodland produces additional widespread warming in spring and early summer over that induced by the 11 ka insolation regime alone, and lakes and wetlands produce modest and localized cooling in summer and warming in winter. The greatest effect is the flooding of the land bridge and shelves, which produces generally cooler conditions in summer but warmer conditions in winter and is most clearly manifest on the flooded shelves and in eastern Beringia. By 6 ka continued amplification of the seasonal cycle of insolation and loss of the Laurentide ice sheet produce temperatures similar to or higher than those at 11 ka, plus a longer growing season.

Confounded winter and spring phenoclimatology on large herbivore ranges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christianson, David; Klaver, Robert W.; Middleton, Arthur; Kauffman, Matthew

2013-01-01

Annual variation in winter severity and growing season vegetation dynamics appear to influence the demography of temperate herbivores but parsing winter from spring effects requires independent metrics of environmental conditions specific to each season. We tested for independence in annual variation amongst four common metrics used to describe winter severity and early growing season vegetation dynamics across the entire spatial distribution of elk (Cervus elaphus) in Wyoming from 1989 to 2006. Winter conditions and early growing season dynamics were correlated in a specific way. Winters with snow cover that ended early tended to be followed by early, but slow, rises in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), while long winters with extended periods of snow cover were often followed by late and rapid rises in NDVI. Across the 35 elk ranges, 0.4–86.8 % of the variation in the rate of increase in NDVI’s in spring was explained by the date snow cover disappeared from SNOTEL stations. Because phenoclimatological metrics are correlated across seasons and shifting due to climate change, identifying environmental constraints on herbivore fitness, particularly migratory species, is more difficult than previously recognized.

Time-lapse imagery of Adélie penguins reveals differential winter strategies and breeding site occupation

PubMed Central

Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; Lunn, Daniel

2018-01-01

Polar seabirds adopt different over-wintering strategies to survive and build condition during the critical winter period. Penguin species either reside at the colony during the winter months or migrate long distances. Tracking studies and survey methods have revealed differences in winter migration routes among penguin species and colonies, dependent on both biotic and abiotic factors present. However, scan sampling methods are rarely used to reveal non-breeding behaviors during winter and little is known about presence at the colony site over this period. Here we show that Adélie penguins on the Yalour Islands in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) are present year-round at the colony and undergo a mid-winter peak in abundance during winter. We found a negative relationship between daylight hours and penguin abundance when either open water or compact ice conditions were present, suggesting that penguins return to the breeding colony when visibility is lowest for at-sea foraging and when either extreme low or high levels of sea ice exist offshore. In contrast, Adélie penguins breeding in East Antarctica were not observed at the colonies during winter, suggesting that Adélie penguins undergo differential winter strategies in the marginal ice zone on the WAP compared to those in East Antarctica. These results demonstrate that cameras can successfully monitor wildlife year-round in areas that are largely inaccessible during winter. PMID:29561876

Aircraft and ground vehicle friction correlation test results obtained under winter runway conditions during joint FAA/NASA Runway Friction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yager, Thomas J.; Vogler, William A.; Baldasare, Paul

1988-01-01

Aircraft and ground vehicle friction data collected during the Joint FAA/NASA Runway Friction Program under winter runway conditions are discussed and test results are summarized. The relationship between the different ground vehicle friction measurements obtained on compacted snow- and ice-covered conditions is defined together with the correlation to aircraft tire friction performance under similar runway conditions.

Mechanisms of interannual- to decadal-scale winter Labrador Sea ice variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Close, S.; Herbaut, C.; Houssais, M.-N.; Blaizot, A.-C.

2017-12-01

The variability of the winter sea ice cover of the Labrador Sea region and its links to atmospheric and oceanic forcing are investigated using observational data, a coupled ocean-sea ice model and a fully-coupled model simulation drawn from the CMIP5 archive. A consistent series of mechanisms associated with high sea ice cover are found amongst the various data sets. The highest values of sea ice area occur when the northern Labrador Sea is ice covered. This region is found to be primarily thermodynamically forced, contrasting with the dominance of mechanical forcing along the eastern coast of Baffin Island and Labrador, and the growth of sea ice is associated with anomalously fresh local ocean surface conditions. Positive fresh water anomalies are found to propagate to the region from a source area off the southeast Greenland coast with a 1 month transit time. These anomalies are associated with sea ice melt, driven by the enhanced offshore transport of sea ice in the source region, and its subsequent westward transport in the Irminger Current system. By combining sea ice transport through the Denmark Strait in the preceding autumn with the Greenland Blocking Index and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index, strong correlation with the Labrador Sea ice area of the following winter is obtained. This relationship represents a dependence on the availability of sea ice to be melted in the source region, the necessary atmospheric forcing to transport this offshore, and a further multidecadal-scale link with the large-scale sea surface temperature conditions.

A one-dimensional, steady-state, dissolved-oxygen model and waste-load assimilation study for Silver Creek, Clark and Floyd counties, Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilber, William G.; Crawford, Charles G.; Peters, James G.

1979-01-01

The Indiana State Board of Health is developing a State water-quality management plan that includes establishing limits for wastewater effluents discharged into Indiana streams. A digital model calibrated to conditions in Silver Creek was used to develop alternatives for future waste loadings that would be compatible with Indiana stream water-quality standards defined for two critical hydrologic conditions, summer and winter low flows. Effluents from the Sellersburg and Clarksville-North wastewater-treatment facilities are the only point-source waste loads that significantly affect the water quality in the modeled segment of Silver Creek. Model simulations indicate that nitrification is the most significant factor affecting the dissolved-oxygen concentration in Silver Creek during summer and winter low flows. Natural streamflow in Silver Creek during the summer and annual 7-day, 10-year low flow is zero, so no benefit from dilution is provided. Present ammonia-nitrogen and dissolved-oxygen concentrations of effluent from the Sellersburg and Clarksville-North wastewater-treatment facilities will violate current Indiana water-quality standards for ammonia toxicity and dissolved oxygen during summer and winter low flows. The current biochemical-oxygen demand limits for the Sellersburg and Clarksville-North wastewater-treatment facilities are not sufficient to maintain an average dissolved-oxygen concentration of at least 5 milligrams per liter, the State 's water-quality standard for streams. Calculations of the stream 's assimilative capacity indicate that Silver Creek cannot assimilate additional waste loadings and meet current Indiana water-quality standards. (Kosco-USGS)

The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, D.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Nina events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters.

PubMed

Grisham, Blake A; Boal, Clint W; Haukos, David A; Davis, Dawn M; Boydston, Kathy K; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

Martian atmospheric gravity waves simulated by a high-resolution general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuroda, Takeshi; Yiǧit, Erdal; Medvedev, Alexander S.; Hartogh, Paul

2016-07-01

Gravity waves (GWs) significantly affect temperature and wind fields in the Martian middle and upper atmosphere. They are also one of the observational targets of the MAVEN mission. We report on the first simulations with a high-resolution general circulation model (GCM) and present a global distributions of small-scale GWs in the Martian atmosphere. The simulated GW-induced temperature variances are in a good agreement with available radio occultation data in the lower atmosphere between 10 and 30 km. For the northern winter solstice, the model reveals a latitudinal asymmetry with stronger wave generation in the winter hemisphere and two distinctive sources of GWs: mountainous regions and the meandering winter polar jet. Orographic GWs are filtered upon propagating upward, and the mesosphere is primarily dominated by harmonics with faster horizontal phase velocities. Wave fluxes are directed mainly against the local wind. GW dissipation in the upper mesosphere generates a body force per unit mass of tens of m s^{-1} per Martian solar day (sol^{-1}), which tends to close the simulated jets. The results represent a realistic surrogate for missing observations, which can be used for constraining GW parameterizations and validating GCMs.

Application of Remote Sensing to Assess the Impact of Short Term Climate Variability on Coastal Sedimentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moeller, Christopher C.; Gunshor, Mathew M.; Menzel, W. Paul; Huh, Oscar K.; Walker, Nan D.; Rouse, Lawrence J.; Frey, Herbert V. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The University of Wisconsin and Louisiana State University have teamed to study the forcing of winter season cold frontal wind systems on sediment distribution patterns and geomorphology in the Louisiana coastal zone. Wind systems associated with cold fronts have been shown to modify coastal circulation and resuspend sediments along the microtidal Louisiana coast. The assessment includes quantifying the influence of cumulative winter season atmospheric forcing (through surface wind observations) from year to year in response to short term climate variability, such as El Nino events. A correlation between winter cyclone frequency and the strength of El Nino events has been suggested. The atmospheric forcing data are being correlated to geomorphic measurements along western Louisiana's prograding muddy coast. Remote sensing data is being used to map and track sediment distribution patterns for various wind conditions. Transferring a suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithm to EOS MODIS observations will enable estimates of SSC in case 2 waters over the global domain. Progress in Year 1 of this study has included data collection and analysis of wind observations for atmospheric forcing characterization, a field activity (TX-2001) to collect in situ water samples with co-incident remote sensing measurements from the NASA ER-2 based MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) and the EOS Terra based MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments, aerial photography and of sediment burial pipe field measurements along the prograding muddy Chenier Plain coast of western Louisiana for documenting coastal change in that dynamic region, and routine collection of MODIS 250 in resolution data for monitoring coastal sediment patterns. The data sets are being used in a process to transfer an SSC estimation algorithm to the MODIS platform. Work is underway on assessing coastal transport for the winter 2000-01 season. Water level data for use in a Geomorphic Impact Index, which relates wind energy, water level conditions, and geomorphic change along the microtidal western Louisiana coastline is being assembled.

Winter CO2 efflux from cold semiarid sagebrush shrublands distributed across the rain-to-snow transition zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fellows, A.; Flerchinger, G. N.; Lohse, K. A.; Seyfried, M. S.

2017-12-01

Predicting winter CO2 efflux across the rain-to-snow transition zone is challenging in the cold semiarid northern Great Basin, USA, complicated by steep environmental gradients and marked heterogeneity in ecosystem properties. We therefore examined winter CO2 efflux over 9 site-years using 4 eddy covariance towers located in the Reynolds Creek Critical Zone Observatory. The sites were sagebrush shrublands located at 1425, 1680, 2098, and 2111 m, and spanned a large part of the rain-to-snow transition zone. We focused on two objectives. First, we quantified winter CO2 efflux at the sites, and considered how these varied with elevation. Second, we used a within-site and cross-site analysis to examine the biological and physical factors that impact winter CO2 efflux. Winter conditions were identified using temperature, snow depth, and CO2 exchange measurements and included 12,922 observations. The duration of winter conditions increased from 90 to 180 days with elevation. Peak snow depth increased from < 30 to > 100 cm with elevation. Cumulative winter CO2 efflux accounted for > 10% of the total annual CO2 efflux, increased with elevation, and was a key component of net ecosystem production at some sites in some years. The importance of winter CO2 efflux was accentuated by the region's long winters and also dry summers that decreased water availability and decomposition during non-winter periods. Preliminary regressions examining air temperature, soil temperature, wind speed, snow depth, and gross carbon uptake indicated some of these factors control the rate of winter CO2 efflux and require consideration, but that additional work is needed to disentangle co-linearity and assess the importance of these factors within and between sites. These findings suggest a consideration of winter CO2 efflux is warranted in cold winter-wet semiarid ecosystems, particularly where winters are long and non-winter CO2 efflux is strongly limited by water availability.

Influence of mountain pine beetle epidemic on winter habitat conditions for Merriam's turkeys: Management implications for current and future condition

Treesearch

Chadwick P. Lehman; Mark A. Rumble; Michael A. Battaglia; Todd R. Mills; Lance A. Asherin

2016-01-01

Understanding response of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest development following a mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae) epidemic has important management implications for winter habitat conditions for Merriam’s wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo merriami; hereafter, turkeys). Therefore, we quantified habitat changes over time for turkeys...

Effects of weather on habitat selection and behavior of mallards wintering in Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jorde, Dennis G.; Krapu, G.L.; Crawford, R.D.; Hay, M.A.

1984-01-01

Sex and age ratios, habitat selection, spatial characteristics, and time budgets of Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) wintering on the Platte River in south central Nebraska were studied from mid-December to early April 1978-1980. The proportion of females and subadults in the population increased substantially from a cold to a mild winter. Radio-tagged Mallards shifted from riverine to canal roost sites during the coldest periods of the winter, seemingly because of more favorable microclimatic conditions there. Subadults ranged over larger areas during winter than did adults. Activity patterns varied with weather conditions, time of day, and habitat type. During cold periods, energetically costly activities such as aggression and courtship decreased at roost sites and the intensity of foraging activities in fields increased. Mallards were more active at riverine than canal sites during both years. High energy requirements and intense competition for scarce food appear to be primary factors limiting the northernmost distribution of Mallards in winter and causing their skewed sex and age ratios.

Impacts of different characterizations of large-scale background on simulated regional-scale ozone over the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogrefe, Christian; Liu, Peng; Pouliot, George; Mathur, Rohit; Roselle, Shawn; Flemming, Johannes; Lin, Meiyun; Park, Rokjin J.

2018-03-01

This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boundary conditions derived from hemispheric or global-scale models. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations supporting this analysis were performed over the continental US for the year 2010 within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP) activities. CMAQ process analysis (PA) results highlight the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection on the ozone burden in the mid-to-upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Vertical mixing, including mixing by convective clouds, couples fluctuations in free-tropospheric ozone to ozone in lower layers. Hypothetical bounding scenarios were performed to quantify the effects of emissions, boundary conditions, and ozone dry deposition on the simulated ozone burden. Analysis of these simulations confirms that the characterization of ozone outside the regional-scale modeling domain can have a profound impact on simulated regional-scale ozone. This was further investigated by using data from four hemispheric or global modeling systems (Chemistry - Integrated Forecasting Model (C-IFS), CMAQ extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ), the Goddard Earth Observing System model coupled to chemistry (GEOS-Chem), and AM3) to derive alternate boundary conditions for the regional-scale CMAQ simulations. The regional-scale CMAQ simulations using these four different boundary conditions showed that the largest ozone abundance in the upper layers was simulated when using boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, followed by the simulations using C-IFS, AM3, and H-CMAQ boundary conditions, consistent with the analysis of the ozone fields from the global models along the CMAQ boundaries. Using boundary conditions from AM3 yielded higher springtime ozone columns burdens in the middle and lower troposphere compared to boundary conditions from the other models. For surface ozone, the differences between the AM3-driven CMAQ simulations and the CMAQ simulations driven by other large-scale models are especially pronounced during spring and winter where they can reach more than 10 ppb for seasonal mean ozone mixing ratios and as much as 15 ppb for domain-averaged daily maximum 8 h average ozone on individual days. In contrast, the differences between the C-IFS-, GEOS-Chem-, and H-CMAQ-driven regional-scale CMAQ simulations are typically smaller. Comparing simulated surface ozone mixing ratios to observations and computing seasonal and regional model performance statistics revealed that boundary conditions can have a substantial impact on model performance. Further analysis showed that boundary conditions can affect model performance across the entire range of the observed distribution, although the impacts tend to be lower during summer and for the very highest observed percentiles. The results are discussed in the context of future model development and analysis opportunities.

Environmental and physiological influences to isotopic ratios of N and protein status in a montane ungulate in winter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gustine, David D.; Barboza, Perry S.; Adams, Layne G.; Wolf, Nathan B.

2014-01-01

Winter severity can influence large herbivore populations through a reduction in maternal proteins available for reproduction. Nitrogen (N) isotopes in blood fractions can be used to track the use of body proteins in northern and montane ungulates. We studied 113 adult female caribou for 13 years throughout a series of severe winters that reduced population size and offspring mass. After these severe winters, offspring mass increased but the size of the population remained low. We devised a conceptual model for routing of isotopic N in blood in the context of the severe environmental conditions experienced by this population. We measured δ15N in three blood fractions and predicted the relative mobilization of dietary and body proteins. The δ15N of the body protein pool varied by 4‰ and 46% of the variance was associated with year. Annual variation in δ15N of body protein likely reflected the fall/early winter diet and winter locations, yet 15% of the isotopic variation in amino acid N was due to body proteins. Consistent isotopic differences among blood N pools indicated that animals tolerated fluxes in diet and body stores. Conservation of body protein in caribou is the result of active exchange among diet and body N pools. Adult females were robust to historically severe winter conditions and prioritized body condition and survival over early investment in offspring. For a vagile ungulate residing at low densities in a predator-rich environment, protein restrictions in winter may not be the primary limiting factor for reproduction.

Environmental and Physiological Influences to Isotopic Ratios of N and Protein Status in a Montane Ungulate in Winter

PubMed Central

Gustine, David D.; Barboza, Perry S.; Adams, Layne G.; Wolf, Nathan B.

2014-01-01

Winter severity can influence large herbivore populations through a reduction in maternal proteins available for reproduction. Nitrogen (N) isotopes in blood fractions can be used to track the use of body proteins in northern and montane ungulates. We studied 113 adult female caribou for 13 years throughout a series of severe winters that reduced population size and offspring mass. After these severe winters, offspring mass increased but the size of the population remained low. We devised a conceptual model for routing of isotopic N in blood in the context of the severe environmental conditions experienced by this population. We measured δ15N in three blood fractions and predicted the relative mobilization of dietary and body proteins. The δ 15N of the body protein pool varied by 4‰ and 46% of the variance was associated with year. Annual variation in δ15N of body protein likely reflected the fall/early winter diet and winter locations, yet 15% of the isotopic variation in amino acid N was due to body proteins. Consistent isotopic differences among blood N pools indicated that animals tolerated fluxes in diet and body stores. Conservation of body protein in caribou is the result of active exchange among diet and body N pools. Adult females were robust to historically severe winter conditions and prioritized body condition and survival over early investment in offspring. For a vagile ungulate residing at low densities in a predator-rich environment, protein restrictions in winter may not be the primary limiting factor for reproduction. PMID:25102057

Environmental and physiological influences to isotopic ratios of N and protein status in a Montane ungulate in winter.

PubMed

Gustine, David D; Barboza, Perry S; Adams, Layne G; Wolf, Nathan B

2014-01-01

Winter severity can influence large herbivore populations through a reduction in maternal proteins available for reproduction. Nitrogen (N) isotopes in blood fractions can be used to track the use of body proteins in northern and montane ungulates. We studied 113 adult female caribou for 13 years throughout a series of severe winters that reduced population size and offspring mass. After these severe winters, offspring mass increased but the size of the population remained low. We devised a conceptual model for routing of isotopic N in blood in the context of the severe environmental conditions experienced by this population. We measured δ15N in three blood fractions and predicted the relative mobilization of dietary and body proteins. The δ 15N of the body protein pool varied by 4‰ and 46% of the variance was associated with year. Annual variation in δ15N of body protein likely reflected the fall/early winter diet and winter locations, yet 15% of the isotopic variation in amino acid N was due to body proteins. Consistent isotopic differences among blood N pools indicated that animals tolerated fluxes in diet and body stores. Conservation of body protein in caribou is the result of active exchange among diet and body N pools. Adult females were robust to historically severe winter conditions and prioritized body condition and survival over early investment in offspring. For a vagile ungulate residing at low densities in a predator-rich environment, protein restrictions in winter may not be the primary limiting factor for reproduction.

Assessment of the Barren Ground Caribou Die-off During Winter 2015-2016 Using Passive Microwave Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolant, C.; Montpetit, B.; Langlois, A.; Brucker, L.; Zolina, O.; Johnson, C. A.; Royer, A.; Smith, P.

2018-05-01

In summer 2016, more than 50 Arctic Barren Ground caribous were found dead on Prince Charles Island (Nunavut, Canada), a species recently classified as threatened. Neither predator nor sign of diseases was observed and reported. The main hypothesis is that caribous were not able to access food due to a very dense snow surface, created by a strong storm system in spring. Using satellite microwave data, a significant increase in brightness temperature polarization ratio at 19 and 37 GHz was observed in spring 2016 (60% higher than previous two winter seasons). Based on microwave radiative transfer simulations, such anomaly can be explained with a very dense snow surface. This is consistent with the succession of storms and strong winds highlighted in ERA-Interim over Prince Charles Island in spring 2016. Using several sources of data, this study shows that changes in snow conditions explain the caribou die-off due to restricted foraging.

Dust-wind interactions can intensify aerosol pollution over eastern China

PubMed Central

Yang, Yang; Russell, Lynn M.; Lou, Sijia; Liao, Hong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Ying; Singh, Balwinder; Ghan, Steven J.

2017-01-01

Eastern China has experienced severe and persistent winter haze episodes in recent years due to intensification of aerosol pollution. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, the winter aerosol pollution over eastern China is associated with unusual meteorological conditions, including weaker wind speeds. Here we show, based on model simulations, that during years with decreased wind speed, large decreases in dust emissions (29%) moderate the wintertime land–sea surface air temperature difference and further decrease winds by −0.06 (±0.05) m s−1 averaged over eastern China. The dust-induced lower winds enhance stagnation of air and account for about 13% of increasing aerosol concentrations over eastern China. Although recent increases in anthropogenic emissions are the main factor causing haze over eastern China, we conclude that natural emissions also exert a significant influence on the increases in wintertime aerosol concentrations, with important implications that need to be taken into account by air quality studies. PMID:28492276

[The new method monitoring crop water content based on NIR-Red spectrum feature space].

PubMed

Cheng, Xiao-juan; Xu, Xin-gang; Chen, Tian-en; Yang, Gui-jun; Li, Zhen-hai

2014-06-01

Moisture content is an important index of crop water stress condition, timely and effective monitoring of crop water content is of great significance for evaluating crop water deficit balance and guiding agriculture irrigation. The present paper was trying to build a new crop water index for winter wheat vegetation water content based on NIR-Red spectral space. Firstly, canopy spectrums of winter wheat with narrow-band were resampled according to relative spectral response function of HJ-CCD and ZY-3. Then, a new index (PWI) was set up to estimate vegetation water content of winter wheat by improveing PDI (perpendicular drought index) and PVI (perpendicular vegetation index) based on NIR-Red spectral feature space. The results showed that the relationship between PWI and VWC (vegetation water content) was stable based on simulation of wide-band multispectral data HJ-CCD and ZY-3 with R2 being 0.684 and 0.683, respectively. And then VWC was estimated by using PWI with the R2 and RMSE being 0.764 and 0.764, 3.837% and 3.840%, respectively. The results indicated that PWI has certain feasibility to estimate crop water content. At the same time, it provides a new method for monitoring crop water content using remote sensing data HJ-CCD and ZY-3.

Deep winter convection and phytoplankton dynamics in the NW Mediterranean Sea under present climate and future (horizon 2030) scenarios.

PubMed

Macias, Diego; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Stips, Adolf

2018-04-26

Deep water convection (DC) in winter is one of the major processes driving open-ocean primary productivity in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. DC is highly variable in time, depending on the specific conditions (stratification, circulation and ocean-atmosphere interactions) of each specific winter. This variability also drives the interannual oscillations of open-ocean primary productivity in this important region for many commercially-important fish species. We use a coupled model system to 1) understand to what extent DC impacts phytoplankton seasonality in the present-day and 2) to explore potential changes in future scenarios (~2030). Our model represents quite accurately the present-day characteristics of DC and its importance for open-ocean phytoplankton blooms. However, for the future scenarios the importance of deep nutrients in fertilizing the euphotic layer of the NW Mediterranean decreases. The model simulates changes in surface density and on the levels of kinetic energy that make mesoscale activity associated with horizontal currents to become a more important fertilization mechanism, inducing subsequently phenological changes in seasonal plankton cycles. Because of our focus on the open-sea, an exact quantification of the impact of those changes on the overall biological production of the NW Mediterranean cannot be made at the moment.

[Process study on hysteresis of vegetation cover influencing sand-dust events].

PubMed

Xu, Xing-Kui; Wang, Xiao-Tao; Zhang, Feng

2009-02-15

Data analysis from satellite and weather stations during 1982-2000 shows nonlinear relationship between vegetation cover and sand-dust events is present in most part of China. Vegetation cover ratio in summer can impact significantly on the frequency of sand-dust storms from winter to spring in the source regions of sand-dust events. It is not quite clear about the hysteresis that vegetation cover in summer influence sand-dust events during winter and spring. A quasi-geostrophic barotropic model is used under the condition of 3 magnitude of frictional coefficient to investigate the cause of the hysteresis. Wind velocity shows a greatest decline at 90% during 72 h as initial wind velocity is 10 m/s for magnitude of frictional coefficient between atmosphere and water surface, greatest decline at 100% during 18 h for magnitude of frictional coefficient between atmosphere and bare soil and a 100% reduction of wind speed during 1 h for magnitude of frictional coefficient between atmosphere and vegetation cover. Observation and simulation prove that residual root and stem from summervegetation are one of factors to influence sand-dust events happened during winter and spring. Air inhibition from residual root and stem is a most important reason for hysteresis that vegetation cover influence sand-dust events.

Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

2015-04-01

Windstorms can cause significant financial damage and they rank among the most hazardous meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Risk associated with windstorms involves the combination of hazardous weather conditions, such as high wind gust speeds, and socio-economic factors, such as the distribution of assets as well as their susceptibilities to damage. A sophisticated risk assessment is important in a wide range of areas and has benefits for e.g. the insurance industry. However, a sophisticated risk assessment needs a large sample of storm events for which high-resolution, quantitative meteorological and/or loss data are available. Latter is typically an aggravating factor. For present-day windstorms in Switzerland, the data basis is generally sufficient to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated impacts. In contrast, historic windstorms are usually described by graphical depictions of the event and/or by weather and loss reports. The information on historic weather events is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. It has primarily been the field of activity of environmental historians to study historic weather extremes and their impacts. Furthermore, the scarce availability of atmospheric datasets reaching back sufficiently in time has so far limited the analysis of historic weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) ensemble dataset, a global atmospheric reanalysis currently spanning 1871 to 2012, offers potentially a very valuable resource for the analysis of historic weather events. However, the 2°×2° latitude-longitude grid of the 20CR is too coarse to realistically represent the complex orography of Switzerland, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of smaller-scale features of the surface wind field influenced by the local orography. Using the 20CR as a starting point, this study illustrates a method to simulate the wind field and related economic impact of both historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our technique involves the dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km horizontal resolution using the numerical Weather Research and Forecasting model and the subsequent loss simulation using an open-source impact model. This impact model estimates, for modern economic and social conditions, storm-related economic losses at municipality level, and thus allows a numerical simulation of the impact from both historic and present-day severe winter storms in Switzerland on a relatively fine spatial scale. In this study, we apply the modelling chain to a storm sample of almost 90 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871, and we are thus able to make a statement of the typical wind and loss patterns of hazardous windstorms in Switzerland. To evaluate our modelling chain, we compare simulated storm losses with insurance loss data for the present-day windstorms "Lothar" and "Joachim" in December 1999 and December 2011, respectively. Our study further includes a range of sensitivity experiments and a discussion of the main sources of uncertainty.

Raising of Operating a Motor Vehicle Effects on Environment in Winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ertman, S. A.; Ertman, J. A.; Zakharov, D. A.

2016-08-01

Severe low-temperature conditions, in which considerable part of Russian Motor Park is operated, affect vehicles negatively. Cold weather causes higher fuel consumption and C02 emissions always. It is because of temperature profile changing of automobile motors, other systems and materials. For enhancement of car operation efficiency in severe winter environment the dependency of engine warm-up and cooling time on ambient air temperature and wind speed described by multifactorial mathematical models is established. -On the basis of experimental research it was proved that the coolant temperature constitutes the engine representative temperature and may be used as representative temperature of engine at large. The model of generation of integrated index for vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines was developed. the method for evaluation of vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines allows to decrease higher fuel consumption in cold climate.

Conserving and managing the subnivium.

PubMed

Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Pauli, Jonathan N

2018-02-08

In regions where snowfall historically has been a defining seasonal characteristic of the landscape, warming winters have reduced the depth, duration, and extent of snowpack. However, most management and conservation has focused on how aboveground wildlife will be affected by altered snow conditions, even though the majority of species that persist through the winter do so under the snowpack in a thermally stable refugium: the subnivium. Shortened winters, forest management practices, and winter recreation can alter subnivium conditions by increasing snow compaction and compromising thermal stability at the soil-snow interface. To help slow the loss of the subnivium in the face of rapidly changing winter conditions, we suggest managers adopt regional conservation plans for identifying threatened snow-covered environments; measure and predict the effects land cover and habitat management has on local subnivium conditions; and control the timing and distribution of activities that disturb and compact snow cover (e.g., silvicultural practices, snow recreation, and road and trail maintenance). As a case study, we developed a spatially explicit model of subnivium presence in a working landscape of the Chequamegon National Forest, Wisconsin. We identified landscapes where winter recreation and management practices could threaten potentially important areas for subnivium persistence. Similar modeling approaches could inform management decisions related to subnivium conservation. Current climate projections predict that snow seasons will change rapidly in many regions, and as result, we advocate for the immediate recognition, conservation, and management of the subnivium and its dependent species. © 2018 Society for Conservation Biology.

Pre-wintering conditions and post-winter performance in a solitary bee

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Notwithstanding lowered metabolism, and because diapausing insects have no access to food, diapause has an energetic cost that may affect post-diapause performance. Previous studies on the solitary bee Osmia lignaria have shown that prolonged pre-wintering periods (the time during which individuals ...

Potential environmental drivers of a regional blue mussel mass mortality event (winter of 2014, Breton Sound, France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polsenaere, Pierre; Soletchnik, Patrick; Le Moine, Olivier; Gohin, Francis; Robert, Stéphane; Pépin, Jean-François; Stanisière, Jean-Yves; Dumas, Franck; Béchemin, Christian; Goulletquer, Philippe

2017-05-01

In the context of global change, increasing mariculture production has raised particular concerns regarding its environmental impact and sustainability. Molluscs and particularly blue mussel account for a significant part of this total production. Although blue mussels are considered to be pretty resilient to environmental disturbances, we report in this study an unprecedented mussel mortality event that occurred during the winter of 2014 in the Breton Sound. 9000 metric tonnes of mussels were lost and mortality rates up to 100% were recorded at some farming areas. Through a coupling approach, the present work aims to better understand the potential environmental drivers associated with those mortalities. Firstly, we analysed long-term in situ and satellite data from environmental monitoring networks (available since 1998) to characterize the variability of seawater masses of the sound during the winter of 2014. Secondly, we used modelling simulations to study the possible relationship between seawater hydrodynamics and observed spatio-temporal patterns of mussel mortalities. From January to April 2014 at the long-line culture site where mortalities started, seawater temperatures ranged from 8.3 to 13.3 °C (10.2 ± 0.8 °C). Salinity and turbidity values showed successive and short drops (below 16; 29.3 ± 2.3) and numerous peaks (above 70 NTU; 17.4 ± 13.4 NTU) respectively. Winter conditions of 2014 were encountered along the entire French Atlantic coastline and linked to the sixth highest positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO +) index recorded since 1865. These particular environmental variations characterized the winter of 2014 but also others whereas no comparable mussel mortality rates were reported. Exact causes of the 2014 mortality event are still unknown but we showed these environmental variations could not alone be responsible. These have likely affected the sensitivity of the blue mussel populations that were already weakened by early spawning. Meanwhile, these may have facilitated the apparition of a pathogenic strain of Vibrio splendidus isolated on moribund mussels at that time. Our modelling simulations suggested that this pathogenic strain could spread through hydrodynamic patterns and drive the observed mussel mortalities. If this pathogenic strain recurs in future years, particularly with the added stress associated with climate change, mussel mass mortality events may exceed the resilience of this species.

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model for Simulating Winter Ozone Formation in the Uinta Basin

EPA Science Inventory

Areas with close proximity to oil and natural gas operations in rural Utah have experienced winter ozone levels that exceed EPA’s National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). Through a collaborative effort, EPA Region 8 – Air Program, ORD, and OAQPS used the Commun...

Using simulation to improve wildlife surveys: Wintering mallards in Mississippi, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearse, A.T.; Reinecke, K.J.; Dinsmore, S.J.; Kaminski, R.M.

2009-01-01

Wildlife conservation plans generally require reliable data about population abundance and density. Aerial surveys often can provide these data; however, associated costs necessitate designing and conducting surveys efficiently. We developed methods to simulate population distributions of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) wintering in western Mississippi, USA, by combining bird observations from three previous strip-transect surveys and habitat data from three sets of satellite images representing conditions when surveys were conducted. For each simulated population distribution, we compared 12 primary survey designs and two secondary design options by using coefficients of variation (CV) of population indices as the primary criterion for assessing survey performance. In all, 3 of the 12 primary designs provided the best precision (CV???11.7%) and performed equally well (WR08082E1d.gif diff???0.6%). Features of the designs that provided the largest gains in precision were optimal allocation of sample effort among strata and configuring the study area into five rather than four strata, to more precisely estimate mallard indices in areas of consistently high density. Of the two secondary design options, we found including a second observer to double the size of strip transects increased precision or decreased costs, whereas ratio estimation using auxiliary habitat data from satellite images did not increase precision appreciably. We recommend future surveys of mallard populations in our study area use the strata we developed, optimally allocate samples among strata, employ PPS or EPS sampling, and include two observers when qualified staff are available. More generally, the methods we developed to simulate population distributions from prior survey data provide a cost-effective method to assess performance of alternative wildlife surveys critical to informing management decisions, and could be extended to account for effects of detectability on estimates of true abundance. ?? 2009 CSIRO.

A risk analysis of winter navigation in Finnish sea areas.

PubMed

Valdez Banda, Osiris A; Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub; Kujala, Pentti

2015-06-01

Winter navigation is a complex but common operation in north-European sea areas. In Finnish waters, the smooth flow of maritime traffic and safety of vessel navigation during the winter period are managed through the Finnish-Swedish winter navigation system (FSWNS). This article focuses on accident risks in winter navigation operations, beginning with a brief outline of the FSWNS. The study analyses a hazard identification model of winter navigation and reviews accident data extracted from four winter periods. These are adopted as a basis for visualizing the risks in winter navigation operations. The results reveal that experts consider ship independent navigation in ice conditions the most complex navigational operation, which is confirmed by accident data analysis showing that the operation constitutes the type of navigation with the highest number of accidents reported. The severity of the accidents during winter navigation is mainly categorized as less serious. Collision is the most typical accident in ice navigation and general cargo the type of vessel most frequently involved in these accidents. Consolidated ice, ice ridges and ice thickness between 15 and 40cm represent the most common ice conditions in which accidents occur. Thus, the analysis presented in this article establishes the key elements for identifying the operation types which would benefit most from further safety engineering and safety or risk management development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Grazing management for fall-grown oat forages

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fall forage production of oat generally will out-yield winter wheat or cereal rye by about a 2:1 ratio, regardless of weather conditions or harvest date because oat plants will joint, elongate, and produce a seedhead before winter, while winter wheat or cereal rye will remain vegetative until spring...

Manure Application under Winter Conditions: Nutrient Runoff and Leaching Losses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Winter application of manure is commonly practiced and potential nutrient losses can be difficult to predict due to wide variations in weather within a year and between years. This study was conducted to determine nutrient losses via surface runoff and subsurface leachate from winter-applied manure ...

Manure application under winter conditions: Nutrient runoff and leaching losses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Winter application of manure is commonly practiced and potential nutrient losses are difficult to predict. This study was conducted in order to determine nutrient losses via surface runoff and subsurface leachate from winter-applied manure based on its relative placement with respect to snow. A labo...

Manure Application Under Winter Conditions: Nutrient Runoff and Leaching Losses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Winter application of manure is commonly practiced and potential nutrient losses are difficult to predict. This study was conducted in order to determine nutrient losses via surface runoff and subsurface leachate from winter-applied manure based on its relative placement with respect to snow. A labo...

Genomic regions associated with freezing tolerance and snow mold tolerance in winter wheat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Crops grown through the winter are subject to selective pressures that vary with each year’s unique conditions, necessitating tolerance of numerous stress factors. The objective of this study was to identify molecular markers in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L. em Thell) associated with tolerance...

Spatial, temporal, and vertical variability of polar stratospheric ozone loss in the Arctic winters 2004/2005-2009/2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttippurath, J.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Lefèvre, F.; Goutail, F.

2010-10-01

The polar stratospheric ozone loss during the Arctic winters 2004/2005-2009/2010 is investigated by using high resolution simulations from the chemical transport model Mimosa-Chim and observations from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), by applying the passive tracer technique. The winter 2004/2005 shows the coldest temperatures, highest area of polar stratospheric clouds and strongest chlorine activation in 2004/2005-2009/2010. The ozone loss diagnosed from both simulations and measurements inside the polar vortex at 475 K ranges from 0.7 ppmv in the warm winter 2005/2006 to 1.5-1.7 ppmv in the cold winter 2004/2005. Halogenated (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles contribute to 75-90% of the ozone loss at this level. At 675 K the lowest loss of 0.3-0.5 ppmv is computed in 2008/2009, and the highest loss of 1.3 ppmv is estimated in 2006/2007 by the model and in 2004/2005 by MLS. Most of the ozone loss (60-75%) at this level results from nitrogen catalytic cycles rather than halogen cycles. At both 475 and 675 K levels the simulated ozone and ozone loss evolution inside the vortex is in reasonably good agreement with the MLS observations. The ozone partial column loss in 350-850 K deduced from the model calculations at the MLS sampling locations inside the polar vortex ranges between 43 DU in 2005/2006 and 109 DU in 2004/2005, while those derived from the MLS observations range between 26 DU and 115 DU for the same winters. The partial column ozone depletion derived in that vertical range is larger than that estimated in 350-550 K by 19±7 DU on average, mainly due to NOx chemistry. The column ozone loss estimates from both Mimosa-Chim and MLS in 350-850 K are generally in good agreement with those derived from ground-based ultraviolet-visible spectrometer total ozone observations for the respective winters, except in 2010.

Windowpane flounder (Scophthalmus aquosus) and winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) responses to cold temperature extremes in a Northwest Atlantic estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilber, Dara H.; Clarke, Douglas G.; Alcoba, Catherine M.; Gallo, Jenine

2016-01-01

The effect of climate variability on flatfish includes not only the effects of warming on sensitive life history stages, but also impacts from more frequent or unseasonal extreme cold temperatures. Cold weather events can affect the overwintering capabilities of flatfish near their low temperature range limits. We examined the responses of two flatfish species, the thin-bodied windowpane (Scophthalmus aquosus) and cold-tolerant winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus), to variable winter temperatures in a Northwest Atlantic estuary using abundance and size data collected during a monitoring study, the Aquatic Biological Survey, conducted from 2002 to 2010. Winter and spring abundances of small (50 to 120 mm total length) juvenile windowpane were positively correlated with adult densities (spawning stock) and fall temperatures (thermal conditions experienced during post-settlement development for the fall-spawned cohort) of the previous year. Windowpane abundances in the estuary were significantly reduced and the smallest size class was nearly absent after several consecutive years with cold (minimum temperatures < 1 °C) winters. Interannual variation in winter flounder abundances was unrelated to the severity of winter temperatures. A Paulik diagram illustrates strong positive correlations between annual abundances of sequential winter flounder life history stages (egg, larval, Age-1 juvenile, and adult male) within the estuary, reflecting residency within the estuary through their first year of life. Temperature variables representing conditions during winter flounder larval and post-settlement development were not significant factors in multiple regression models exploring factors that affect juvenile abundances. Likewise, densities of predators known to consume winter flounder eggs and/or post-settlement juveniles were not significantly related to interannual variation in winter flounder juvenile abundances. Colder estuarine temperatures through the first year of life were associated with smaller Age-1 winter flounder body size. For example, Age-1 winter flounder developing under conditions that differed by 1.9 °C in mean daily water temperature, averaged 98.7 mm total length (TL) and 123.1 mm TL, for the relatively cold vs. moderate years, respectively. More frequent cold temperature extremes associated with climate variability may negatively impact the overwintering capabilities of some flatfish near their cold temperature range limits, whereas cold-tolerant species may experience reduced growth, which imparts the ecological challenges associated with smaller body size.

Impacts of the EA and SCA patterns on the 20th century NAO-winter precipitation relationship in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comas-Bru, Laia; McDermott, Frank

2013-04-01

Much of the 20th century multi-decadal variability in the NAO-winter precipitation relationship over the N. Atlantic / European sector can be ascribed to the combined effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and either the East Atlantic pattern (EA) or the Scandinavian pattern (SCA). The NAO, EA and SCA indices employed here are defined as the three leading vectors of the cross-correlation matrix calculated from monthly sea-level pressure anomalies for 138 complete winters from the 20CRv2 dataset (Compo et al., 2011). Winter precipitation data over Europe for the entire 20th century is derived from the high resolution CRU-TS3.1 climate dataset (Mitchell and Jones, 2005). Here we document for the first time, that different NAO/EA and NAO/SCA combinations systematically influence winter precipitation conditions in Europe as a consequence of NAO dipole migrations. We find that the zero-correlated line of the NAO-winter precipitation relationship migrates southwards when the EA is in the opposite phase to the NAO. This can be related to a south-westwards migration of the NAO dipole under these conditions, as shown by teleconnectivity maps. Similarly, a clockwise movement of the NAO-winter climate correlated areas occurs when the phase of the SCA is opposite to that of the NAO, reflecting a clockwise movement of the NAO dipole under these conditions. An important implication of these migrations is that they influence the spatial and temporal stationarity of climate-NAO relationships. As a result, the link between winter precipitation patterns and the NAO is not straightforward in some regions such as the southern UK, Ireland and France. For instance, much of the inter-annual variability in the N-S winter precipitation gradient in the UK, originally attributed to inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of the NAO, reflects the migration of the NAO dipole, linked to linear combinations of the NAO and the EA. Our results indicate that when the N-S winter precipitation gradient is accentuated by the occurrence of a positive EA during positive NAO winters, drier conditions than normal are found in the southern UK. This is consistent, for example, with the severe winter drought of 1976, when computed NAO and EA indices were both positive (0.97 and 1.87, respectively), illustrating the modulating effect of NAO/EA combinations on winter precipitation patterns in the southern UK. References: Compo GP et al. 2011. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137 (654), 1-28. Mitchell TD, Jones PD. 2005. An improved method for constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 693-712.

A climate model diagnostic metric for the Madden-Julian oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, A. O.; Jiang, X.

2016-12-01

Despite its significant impacts on global weather and climate, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) remains a grand challenge for state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs). The eastward propagation of the MJO is often poorly simulated in GCMs, represented by a stationary or even westward propagating mode. Recent analyses based on moist static energy processes suggest the horizontal advection of the winter mean moist static energy by the MJO circulation plays a critical role in the observed eastward propagation of the MJO. In this study, we explore relationships between model fidelity in representing the eastward propagation of the MJO and the winter mean lower-tropospheric moisture pattern by analyzing a suite of GCMs from a recent multi-model MJO comparison project. Model capability of reproducing the observed spatial pattern of the 650-900 hPa winter mean specific humidity is a robust indicator of how well they reproduce the MJO's eastward propagation. In particular, model skill in simulating the low-level winter mean specific humidity over the Maritime Continent region (20°S-20°N, 90°-135°E) is highly correlated with model skill of MJO propagation across the 23 GCMs analyzed, with a correlation of about 0.8. Winter mean lower-tropospheric moisture patterns over two other regions, including the western Indian Ocean and an off-equatorial region in the central Indian Ocean, also exhibit high correlations with MJO propagation skill in the model simulations. This study supports recent studies in highlighting the importance of the mean low-level moisture for MJO propagation and it points out a direction for model improvement of the MJO. Meanwhile, it is also suggested that the winter mean low-level moisture pattern over the Indo-Pacific region, particularly over the Maritime Continent region, can serve as a diagnostic metric for the eastward propagation of the MJO in climate model assessments.

Effects of Potential Future Warming on Runoff in the Yakima River Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.

2008-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation has implemented a long-term planning study of potential water-storage alternatives in the Yakima River Basin, which includes planning for climate change effects on available water resources in the basin. Previously constructed watershed models for the Yakima River Basin were used to simulate changes in unregulated streamflow under two warmer climate scenarios, one representing a 1 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus one scenario) and one representing a 2 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus two scenario). Simulations were done for water years 1981 through 2005 and the results were compared to simulated unregulated runoff for the same period using recorded daily precipitation, and minimum and maximum air temperatures (base conditions). Precipitation was not altered for the two warmer climate change scenarios. Simulated annual runoff for the plus one and plus two scenarios decreased modestly from the base conditions, but the seasonal distribution and the general pattern of runoff proved to be highly sensitive to temperature changes throughout the basin. Seasonally increased runoff was simulated during the late autumn and winter months for both the plus one and plus two scenarios compared to base conditions. Comparisons at six principal regulatory locations in the basin showed that the maximum percentage increases in runoff over the base conditions during December to March varied from 24 to 48 percent for the plus one scenario and 59 to 94 percent for the plus two scenario. During late spring and summer months, significantly decreased runoff was simulated at these sites for both scenarios compared to base conditions. Simulated maximum decreases in runoff occurred during June and July, and the changes ranged from -22 to -51 percent for the plus one scenario and -44 to -76 percent for the plus two scenario. Differences in total annual runoff at these sites ranged from -1.4 to -3.9 percent for the plus one scenario and from -2.5 to -8.2 percent for the plus two scenario. The percent change of the monthly mean runoff for both scenarios from the base conditions at many points in the basin will be used in a water-management model developed by the Bureau of Reclamation to assess various storage alternatives.

Effect of antecedent-hydrological conditions on rainfall triggering of debris flows in ash-fall pyroclastic mantled slopes of Campania (southern Italy)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Napolitano, E.; Fusco, F; Baum, Rex L.; Godt, Jonathan W.; De Vita, P.

2016-01-01

Mountainous areas surrounding the Campanian Plain and the Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy) are among the most risky areas of Italy due to the repeated occurrence of rainfallinduced debris flows along ash-fall pyroclastic soil-mantled slopes. In this geomorphological framework, rainfall patterns, hydrological processes taking place within multi-layered ash-fall pyroclastic deposits and soil antecedent moisture status are the principal factors to be taken into account to assess triggering rainfall conditions and the related hazard. This paper presents the outcomes of an experimental study based on integrated analyses consisting of the reconstruction of physical models of landslides, in situ hydrological monitoring, and hydrological and slope stability modeling, carried out on four representative source areas of debris flows that occurred in May 1998 in the Sarno Mountain Range. The hydrological monitoring was carried out during 2011 using nests of tensiometers and Watermark pressure head sensors and also through a rainfall and air temperature recording station. Time series of measured pressure head were used to calibrate a hydrological numerical model of the pyroclastic soil mantle for 2011, which was re-run for a 12-year period beginning in 2000, given the availability of rainfall and air temperature monitoring data. Such an approach allowed us to reconstruct the regime of pressure head at a daily time scale for a long period, which is representative of about 11 hydrologic years with different meteorological conditions. Based on this simulated time series, average winter and summer hydrological conditions were chosen to carry out hydrological and stability modeling of sample slopes and to identify Intensity- Duration rainfall thresholds by a deterministic approach. Among principal results, the opposing winter and summer antecedent pressure head (soil moisture) conditions were found to exert a significant control on intensity and duration of rainfall triggering events. Going from winter to summer conditions requires a strong increase of intensity and/or duration to induce landslides. The results identify an approach to account for different hazard conditions related to seasonality of hydrological processes inside the ash-fall pyroclastic soil mantle. Moreover, they highlight another important factor of uncertainty that potentially affects rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides reconstructed by empirical approaches.

Using Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections to Analyze Interannual Precipitation Variability in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephan, C.; Klingaman, N. P.; Vidale, P. L.; Turner, A. G.; Demory, M. E.; Guo, L.

2017-12-01

Interannual rainfall variability in China affects agriculture, infrastructure and water resource management. A consistent and objective method, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis, is applied to precipitation observations over China in all seasons. Instead of maximizing the explained space-time variance, the method identifies regions in China that best explain the temporal variability in domain-averaged rainfall. It produces known teleconnections, that include high positive correlations with ENSO in eastern China in winter, along the Yangtze River in summer, and in southeast China during spring. New findings include that variability along the southeast coast in winter, in the Yangtze valley in spring, and in eastern China in autumn, are associated with extratropical Rossby wave trains. The same analysis is applied to six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model with and without air-sea coupling and at various horizontal resolutions of 40, 90 and 200 km. All simulations reproduce the observed patterns of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are all patterns associated with the observed physical mechanism. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. Finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. Evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient; attention must be paid to associated mechanisms.

Effect of winter cold duration on spring phenology of the orange tip butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines.

PubMed

Stålhandske, Sandra; Lehmann, Philipp; Pruisscher, Peter; Leimar, Olof

2015-12-01

The effect of spring temperature on spring phenology is well understood in a wide range of taxa. However, studies on how winter conditions may affect spring phenology are underrepresented. Previous work on Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly) has shown population-specific reaction norms of spring development in relation to spring temperature and a speeding up of post-winter development with longer winter durations. In this experiment, we examined the effects of a greater and ecologically relevant range of winter durations on post-winter pupal development of A. cardamines of two populations from the United Kingdom and two from Sweden. By analyzing pupal weight loss and metabolic rate, we were able to separate the overall post-winter pupal development into diapause duration and post-diapause development. We found differences in the duration of cold needed to break diapause among populations, with the southern UK population requiring a shorter duration than the other populations. We also found that the overall post-winter pupal development time, following removal from winter cold, was negatively related to cold duration, through a combined effect of cold duration on diapause duration and on post-diapause development time. Longer cold durations also lead to higher population synchrony in hatching. For current winter durations in the field, the A. cardamines population of southern UK could have a reduced development rate and lower synchrony in emergence because of short winters. With future climate change, this might become an issue also for other populations. Differences in winter conditions in the field among these four populations are large enough to have driven local adaptation of characteristics controlling spring phenology in response to winter duration. The observed phenology of these populations depends on a combination of winter and spring temperatures; thus, both must be taken into account for accurate predictions of phenology.

Nutritional condition and serum biochemistry for free-living Swainson's Hawks wintering in central Argentina.

PubMed

Sarasola, José Hernán; Negro, Juan José; Travaini, Alejandro

2004-04-01

We assessed the nutritional condition and established reference values for serum chemistry parameters in a long distance migrant bird of prey, the Swainson's Hawk (Buteo swainsoni), wintering in central Argentina. We analyzed serum concentration of urea, uric acid, cholesterol, and triglycerides and assessed age and sex related differences in these parameters. A body condition index was obtained from the resultant residuals of the regression of body mass and a morphometric measure. No statistical differences were observed among sex and age groups for urea, uric acid and triglyceride serum concentration. However, cholesterol concentration differed among male and female hawks, which could be related to the gain of body mass in wintering grounds at differential rates. The mean values of the four parameters were in the range of those recorded in the Common Buzzard (Buteo buteo), indicating good nutritional condition of the population we studied. Forearm length was the morphometric variable that better correlated with body mass. The resultant body condition index was only correlated with triglyceride concentration, suggesting that this index could be valuable in future work dealing with the assessment of body fat storage in wintering and breeding hawks, as well as in stopover points on the migratory route.

Reproductive success and failure: the role of winter body mass in reproductive allocation in Norwegian moose.

PubMed

Milner, Jos M; van Beest, Floris M; Solberg, Erling J; Storaas, Torstein

2013-08-01

A life history strategy that favours somatic growth over reproduction is well known for long-lived iteroparous species, especially in unpredictable environments. Risk-sensitive female reproductive allocation can be achieved by a reduced reproductive effort at conception, or the subsequent adjustment of investment during gestation or lactation in response to unexpected environmental conditions or resource availability. We investigated the relative importance of reduced investment at conception compared with later in the reproductive cycle (i.e. prenatal, perinatal or neonatal mortality) in explaining reproductive failure in two high-density moose (Alces alces) populations in southern Norway. We followed 65 multiparous, global positioning system (GPS)-collared females throughout the reproductive cycle and focused on the role of maternal nutrition during gestation in determining reproductive success using a quasi-experimental approach to manipulate winter forage availability. Pregnancy rates in early winter were normal (≥0.8) in all years while spring calving rates ranged from 0.4 to 0.83, with prenatal mortality accounting for most of the difference. Further losses over summer reduced autumn recruitment rates to 0.23-0.69, despite negligible predation. Over-winter mass loss explained variation in both spring calving and autumn recruitment success better than absolute body mass in early or late winter. Although pregnancy was related to body mass in early winter, overall reproductive success was unrelated to pre-winter body condition. We therefore concluded that reproductive success was limited by winter nutritional conditions. However, we could not determine whether the observed reproductive allocation adjustment was a bet-hedging strategy to maximise reproduction without compromising survival or whether females were simply unable to invest more resources in their offspring.

Improving fungal disease forecasts in winter wheat: a critical role of intra-day variations of meteorological conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Meteorological conditions are important factors in the development of fungal diseases in winter wheat and are the main inputs of the decision support systems used to forecast disease and thus determine timing for efficacious fungicide application. This study uses the Fourier transform method (FTM) t...

Increase in winter haze over eastern China in recent decades: Roles of variations in meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions: INCREASE IN WINTER HAZE IN EASTERN CHINA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Yang; Liao, Hong; Lou, Sijia

The increase in winter haze over eastern China in recent decades due to variations in meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions was quantified using observed atmospheric visibility from the National Climatic Data Center Global Summary of Day database for 1980–2014 and simulated PM2.5 concentrations for 1985–2005 from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Observed winter haze days averaged over eastern China (105–122.5°E, 20–45°N) increased from 21 d in 1980 to 42 d in 2014, and from 22 to 30 d between 1985 and 2005. The GEOS-Chem model captured the increasing trend of winter PM2.5 concentrations for 1985–2005,more » with concentrations averaged over eastern China increasing from 16.1 μg m -3 in 1985 to 38.4 μg m -3 in 2005. Considering variations in both anthropogenic emissions and meteorological parameters, the model simulated an increase in winter surface-layer PM2.5 concentrations of 10.5 (±6.2) μg m -3 decade -1 over eastern China. The increasing trend was only 1.8 (±1.5) μg m -3 decade -1 when variations in meteorological parameters alone were considered. Among the meteorological parameters, the weakening of winds by -0.09 m s -1 decade -1 over 1985–2005 was found to be the dominant factor leading to the decadal increase in winter aerosol concentrations and haze days over eastern China during recent decades.« less

The necessity of HVAC system for the registered architectural cultural heritage building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popovici, Cătălin George; Hudişteanu, Sebastian Valeriu; Cherecheş, Nelu-Cristian

2018-02-01

This study is intended to highlight the role of the ventilation and air conditioning system for a theatre. It was chosen as a case study the "Vasile Alecsandri" National Theatre of Jassy. The paper also sought to make a comparison in three distinct scenarios for HVAC Main Hall system - ventilation and air conditioning system of the Main Hall doesn't work; only the ventilation system of the Main Hall works and ventilation and air conditioning system of the Main Hall works. For analysing the comfort parameters, the ANSYS-Fluent software was used to build a 2D model of the building and simulation of HVAC system functionality during winter season, in all three scenarios. For the studied scenarios, the external conditions of Jassy and the indoor conditions of the theatre, when the entire spectacle hall is occupied were considered. The main aspects evaluated for each case were the air temperature, air velocity and relative humidity. The results are presented comparatively as plots and spectra of the interest parameters.

Over-winter ecology of Oncorhynchus nerka in the Sawtooth Valley Lakes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steinhart, G.B.; Wurtsbaugh, W.A.

1996-05-01

Included in this section of the report on limnology of Lakes in the Snake River Plain are descriptions of winter limnological conditions and kokanee growth characteristics from 1993 to 1995. The winter is usually a very harsh period for animals, and little is know about the over-winter ecology os sockeye salmon. They are active a temperatures below 4 F. The chapter discusses methods and results. 14 figs, 4 tabs.

Projection of Changes in Regional Climate and Air Quality in the Great Lakes Basin between 2000 and 2050 for the RCP8.5 Emissions Scenario using the GEM-AQ Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lupu, A.; Semeniuk, K.; McConnell, J. C.; Kaminski, J. W.; Toyota, K.; Neary, L.

2012-12-01

The Global Environmental Multiscale Air Quality (GEM-AQ) model was run in global and limited area model (LAM) modes for the baseline year 2000 and one future year, 2050, on three different horizontal grids of increasing resolution from global (1.5°) to North American (LAM, 0.45°) to Ontario regional scale (LAM, 0.15°). For the future simulation we used the high greenhouse emissions scenario RCP8.5. Boundary conditions for the LAM runs were taken from the coarser resolution runs. All simulations had 54 vertical sigma-pressure hybrid levels from the ground to the stratopause (˜50 km), which should give a good representation of ozone injection to the troposphere from the stratosphere. The model uses the interactive land surface scheme ISBA. Sea surface and lake temperatures are prescribed, but ice cover is partially interactive based on prescribed fields. A lake model, FLAKE, was coupled to GEM-AQ in order to capture the impacts of the Great Lakes on the meteorology when the model is run at high resolution. For the Ontario regional simulation the interactive lake model allowed for self-consistent water temperatures and moisture fluxes. The simulation for the year 2000 shows that the model is able to reproduce the observed monthly surface temperatures across the US. The monthly surface ozone is reproduced at the level of detail of most other air quality models with year 2000 weather as opposed to a free run forced by SSTs. Our year 2050 simulation shows that ozone levels during the summer throughout most of Ontario and Canada will increase. Regions south of the latitude of Lake Superior will generally see decreased levels of summer (JJA) ozone, except for around large urban areas such as Toronto, Chicago and Montreal. However, NOx levels will decrease during the summer, reflecting decreased emissions. Ozone levels in the US will generally improve. Other indices rather than simple averages yield a different perspective. If the MDA8 ozone metric and NO2 one-hour 98th percentile are used, then it is found that air quality across Canada and US will generally improve. From the perspective of meteorology, the most significant surface warming that is likely to occur by 2050 is during winter. The winter warming also reflects changes in large scale circulation with baroclinic eddy storm tracks moving north. Winter warming contributes to a surface ozone increase by 2050 in spite of reduced emissions. In addition, we note that in the Ontario region and environs for 2050 there is a significant increase (˜40) in the number of DD5 days, i.e. days where the temperature is above 5°C, a metric useful for the length of the growing season for agriculture. This also means that conditions that impact forests and movement of disease vectors will also change.

Dynamical Coupling Between the Stratosphere and the Troposphere: The Influence of External Forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Felicitas; Matthes, Katja

2013-04-01

The dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere is dominated by planetary waves that are generated in the troposphere by orography and land-sea contrasts. These waves travel upward into the stratosphere where they either dissipate or are reflected downward to impact the troposphere again. Through the interaction with the zonal mean flow planetary waves can induce stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs), i.e., conditions during NH winter where the stratospheric polar vortex is disturbed so that the zonal mean zonal wind in the NH stratospheric jet becomes easterly and the polar cap meridional temperature gradient reverses. Since strong major SSWs can propagate down into the troposphere and even affect surface weather, SSWs present a strong and clear manifestation of the dynamical coupling in the stratosphere-troposphere system. We will investigate the influence of some external forcings, namely sea surface temperatures (SSTs), anthropogenic greenhouse gases and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), on these coupling processes. Thereby we are interested in how the distribution of SSWs in the winter months changes due to the different forcings, whether the events evolve differently, and whether they show differences in their preconditioning, e.g. a different wave geometry. We will also investigate whether and how vertical reflective surfaces in the stratosphere, which can reflect upward propagating planetary waves, influence the evolution of SSWs. To address these questions, we performed a set of model simulations with NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM), a coupled model system including an interactive ocean (POP2), land (CLM4), sea ice (CICE) and atmosphere (NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)) component. Our control experiment is a 140-year simulation with the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean version of CESM. A second experiment is a 55-year simulation with only CESM's atmospheric component WACCM, a fully interactive chemistry-climate model extending from the Earth's surface through the thermosphere (about 140 km), with underlying climatological SSTs obtained from the coupled CESM control run. A third 55-year simulation is performed without the nudging of the equatorial QBO. All three simulations develop under conditions where greenhouse gases are held constant at the 1960 level. In a fourth simulations, the greenhouse gases follow the RCP8.5 scenario. From the differences of the individual simulations to the control experiment we can estimate the respective roles of SSTs, the QBO and anthropogenic greenhouse gases for the stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The model results will be compared to the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset.

Physiological changes in red spruce seedlings during a simulated winter thaw

Treesearch

P.G. Schaberg; J.B. Shane; G.J. Hawley; G.R. Strimbeck; D.H. DeHayes; P.F. Cali; J.R. Donnelly

1996-01-01

We evaluated net photosynthesis, respiration, leaf conductance, xylem pressure potential (XPP) and cold hardiness in red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) seedlings exposed to either a continuous thaw (CT) or a daytime thaw with freezing nights (FN) for 8 days during mid-winter. Physiological differences between CT and FN seedlings were evident for all...

Nuclear winter - Physics and physical mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Pollack, J. B.; Ackerman, T. P.; Sagan, C.

1991-01-01

The basic physics of the environmental perturbations caused by multiple nuclear detonations is explored, summarizing current knowledge of the possible physical, chemical, and biological impacts of nuclear war. Emphasis is given to the impact of the bomb-generated smoke (soot) particles. General classes of models that have been used to simulate nuclear winter are examined, using specific models as examples.

Simulation of Relationship between ENSO and winter precipitation over Western Himalayas: Application of Regional climate model (RegT-Band)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, P. R.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Acharaya, N.; Sinha, P.

2012-12-01

Precipitation over the Western Himalayas region during winter is mainly associated with the passage of midlatitude synoptic systems known as western disturbances (WDs). Recently, many observational and modeling studies reported that the relationship of the Indian southwest monsoon rainfall with El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has weakened since around 1980. But, in contrast, only very few observational studies are reported so far to examine the relationship between ENSO and the winter precipitation over the Western Himalayas region from December to February (DJF). But there is a huge gap of modeling this phenomenon. So keeping in view of the absence of modeling studies, an attempt is made to simulate the relationship between wintertime precipitations associated with large scale global forcing of ENSO over the Western Himalayas. In the present study, RegT-Band, a tropical band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 is integrated for a set of 5 El Niño (1986-87, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2009-10) and 4 La Niña (1984-85, 1988-89, 1999-2000, 2007-08) years with the observed sea-surface temperature and lateral boundary condition. The domain extends from 50° S to 50° N and covers the entire tropics at a grid spacing of about 45 km, i.e. it includes lateral boundary forcing only at the southern and northern boundaries. The performance evaluation of the model in capturing the large scale fields followed by ENSO response with wintertime precipitation over the Western Himalayas region has been carried out by using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis 2 (NNRP2) data (2.5° x 2.5°) and Aphrodite precipitation data (0.25° x 0.25°). The model is able to delineate the mean circulation associated with ENSO over the region during DJF reasonably well and shows strong southwesterly to northwesterly wind flow, which is there in verification analysis also. The vertical structure of the low as well as upper level air circulation for the ENSO regimes has been also studied. For this purpose, a longitudional cross-section of the seasonal sectorial mean of the zonal and meridional winds is analyzed form NNRP2 and RegT-Band model simulations. The model simulated zonal wind is in good agreement with verification analysis however core speed of subtropical Westerly Jet Stream in upper level (around 150 hPa) is overestimated by the model. Further, the sectorial cross section of meridional wind indicates that the wind around 200 hPa is stronger during ENSO years, and this feature is emphasized well in the model simulation. So the upper and lower level sartorial components of wind supports the argument of strengthening of circulation associated with ENSO, and hence enhanced precipitation during ENSO-winter precipitation relationship. So our preliminary study indicates that the tropical band version of the regional climate model can be effectively used for the better understanding of these large scale global forcing's. This can improve the predictability of precipitation over this region and so it might help to come out with better socio-economic tools. Key words: Winter precipitation, El-Nino-southern oscillation, RegCM4, ENSO response and RegT-Band.

A High-Latitude Winter Continental Low Cloud Feedback Suppresses Arctic Air Formation in Warmer Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cronin, T.; Tziperman, E.; Li, H.

2015-12-01

High latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. It has also been found that the high-latitude lapse rate feedback plays an important role in Arctic amplification of climate change in climate model simulations, but we have little understanding of why lapse rates at high latitudes change so strongly with warming. To better understand these problems, we study Arctic air formation - the process by which a high-latitude maritime air mass is advected over a continent during polar night, cooled at the surface by radiation, and transformed into a much colder continental polar air mass - and its sensitivity to climate warming. We use a single-column version of the WRF model to conduct two-week simulations of the cooling process across a wide range of initial temperature profiles and microphysics schemes, and find that a low cloud feedback suppresses Arctic air formation in warmer climates. This cloud feedback consists of an increase in low cloud amount with warming, which shields the surface from radiative cooling, and increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ~10 days for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 oC. Given that this is about the time it takes an air mass starting over the Pacific to traverse the north American continent, this suggests that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates. We find that CMIP5 climate model runs show large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, consistent with the proposed low-cloud feedback. The suppression of Arctic air formation with warming may act as a significant amplifier of climate change at high latitudes, and offers a mechanistic perspective on the high-latitude "lapse rate feedback" diagnosed in climate models.

Impact of thermal time shift on wheat phenology and yield under warming climate in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Dengpan; Qi, Yongqing; Li, Zhiqiang; Wang, Rende; Moiwo, Juana P.; Liu, Fengshan

2017-03-01

Given climate change can potentially influence crop phenology and subsequent yield, an investigation of relevant adaptation measures could increase the understanding and mitigation of these responses in the future. In this study, field observations at 10 stations in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China (HHHP) are used in combination with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model to determine the effect of thermal time shift on the phenology and potential yield of wheat from 1981-2009. Warming climate speeds up winter wheat development and thereby decreases the duration of the wheat growth period. However, APSIM-Wheat model simulation suggests prolongation of the period from flowering to maturity (Gr) of winter wheat by 0.2-0.8 d•10yr-1 as the number of days by which maturity advances, which is less than that by which flowering advances. Based on computed thermal time of the two critical growth phases of wheat, total thermal time from floral initiation to flowering (TT_floral_initiation) increasesd in seven out of the 10 investigated stations. Alternatively, total thermal time from the start of grainfilling to maturity (TT_start_ grain_fill) increased in all investigated stations, except Laiyang. It is thus concluded that thermal time shift during the past three decades (1981-2009) prolongs Gr by 0.2-3.0 d•10yr-1 in the study area. This suggests that an increase in thermal time (TT) of the wheat growth period is critical for mitigating the effect of growth period reduction due to warming climatic condition. Furthermore, climate change reduces potential yield of winter wheat in 80% of the stations by 2.3-58.8 kg•yr-1. However, thermal time shift (TTS) increases potential yield of winter wheat in most of the stations by 3.0-51.0 kg•yr-1. It is concluded that wheat cultivars with longer growth periods and higher thermal requirements could mitigate the negative effects of warming climate on crop production in the study area.

Uncertainty Quantification of Medium-Term Heat Storage From Short-Term Geophysical Experiments Using Bayesian Evidential Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermans, Thomas; Nguyen, Frédéric; Klepikova, Maria; Dassargues, Alain; Caers, Jef

2018-04-01

In theory, aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) systems can recover in winter the heat stored in the aquifer during summer to increase the energy efficiency of the system. In practice, the energy efficiency is often lower than expected from simulations due to spatial heterogeneity of hydraulic properties or non-favorable hydrogeological conditions. A proper design of ATES systems should therefore consider the uncertainty of the prediction related to those parameters. We use a novel framework called Bayesian Evidential Learning (BEL) to estimate the heat storage capacity of an alluvial aquifer using a heat tracing experiment. BEL is based on two main stages: pre- and postfield data acquisition. Before data acquisition, Monte Carlo simulations and global sensitivity analysis are used to assess the information content of the data to reduce the uncertainty of the prediction. After data acquisition, prior falsification and machine learning based on the same Monte Carlo are used to directly assess uncertainty on key prediction variables from observations. The result is a full quantification of the posterior distribution of the prediction conditioned to observed data, without any explicit full model inversion. We demonstrate the methodology in field conditions and validate the framework using independent measurements.

Comparisons of Modeled and Observed Reflectivities and Fall Speeds for Snowfall of Varied Riming Degree During Winter Storms on Long Island, New York

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew L.; Colle, Brian A.; Yuter, Sandra E.; Stark, David

2016-01-01

Derived radar reflectivity and fall speed for four Weather Research and Forecasting model bulk microphysical parameterizations (BMPs) run at 1.33 km grid spacing are compared with ground-based, vertically-pointing Ku-band radar, scanning S- band radar, and in situ measurements at Stony Brook, NY. Simulations were partitioned into periods of observed riming degree as determined manually using a stereo microscope and camera during nine winter storms. Simulations were examined to determine whether the selected BMPs captured the effects of varying riming intensities, provided a reasonable match to the vertical structure of radar reflectivity or fall speed, and whether they produced reasonable surface fall speed distributions. Schemes assuming non spherical mass-diameter relationships yielded reflectivity distributions closer to observed values. All four schemes examined in this study provided a better match to the observed, vertical structure of reflectivity during moderate riming than light riming periods. The comparison of observed and simulated snow fall speeds had mixed results. One BMP produced episodes of excessive cloud water at times, resulting in fall speeds that were too large. However, most schemes had frequent periods of little or no cloud water during moderate riming periods and thus underpredicted the snow fall speeds at lower levels. Short, 1-4 hour periods with relatively steady snow conditions were used to compare BMP and observed size and fall speed distributions. These limited data suggest the examined BMPs underpredict fall speeds of cold-type snow habits and underrepresent aggregates larger than 4 mm diameter.

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Marshall, Susan; Erickson, David J., III; Robertson, Franklin R.; Roads, John O.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A key question is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectivity of snow is the most important process by which snow cover can impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. The results to date were obtained for model runs with present-day conditions. We are currently analyzing runs made with projected forcings for the 21st century to see if these results are modified in any way under likely scenarios of future climate change. An intriguing new statistical technique involving 'clustering' is developed to assist in this analysis.

Investigating the Interannual Variability of the Circulation and Water Mass Formation in the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, S. S.; Papadopoulos, V. P.; Denaxa, D.; Abualnaja, Y.

2014-12-01

The interannual variability of the circulation and water mass formation in the Red Sea is investigated with the use of a numerical model and the combination of satellite and in-situ observations. The response of Red Sea to the large-scale variability of atmospheric forcing is studied through a 30-years simulation experiment, using MICOM model. The modeling results demonstrate significant trends and variability that are mainly located in the central and northern parts of the basin. On the other hand, the exchange pattern between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean at the strait of Bab el Mandeb presents very weak interannual variability. The results verify the regularity of the water mass formation processes in the northern Red Sea but also show significant variability of the circulation and thermohaline conditions in the areas of formation. Enhanced water mass formation conditions are observed during specific years of the simulation (approximately five years apart). Analysis of recent warm and cold events in the northernmost part of the basin, based on a combination of atmospheric reanalysis results and oceanic satellite and in-situ observations, shows the importance of the cyclonic gyre that is prevailing in this part of the basin. This gyre can effectively influence the sea surface temperature (SST) and intensify or mitigate the winter effect of the atmospheric forcing. Upwelling induced by persistent periods of the gyre functioning drops the SST over the northernmost part of the Red Sea and can produce colder than normal winter SST even without extreme atmospheric forcing. These mechanisms are crucial for the formation of intermediate and deep water masses in the Red Sea and the strength of the subsequent thermohaline cells.

Climatic controls of western U.S. glaciers at the last glacial maximum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Clark, P.U.

1997-01-01

We use a nested atmospheric modeling strategy to simulate precipitation and temperature of the western United States 18,000 years ago (18 ka). The high resolution of the nested model allows us to isolate the regional structure of summer temperature and winter precipitation that is crucial to determination of the net mass balance of late-Pleistocene mountain glaciers in this region of diverse topography and climate. Modeling results suggest that climatic controls of these glaciers varied significantly over the western U.S. Glaciers in the northern Rocky Mountains existed under relatively cold July temperatures and low winter accumulation, reflecting anticyclonic, easterly wind flow off the Laurentide Ice Sheet. In contrast, glaciers that existed under relatively warmer and wetter conditions are located along the Pacific coast south of Oregon, where enhanced westerlies delivered higher precipitation than at present. Between these two groupings lie glaciers that were controlled by a mix of cold and wet conditions attributed to the convergence of cold air from the ice sheet and moisture derived from the westerlies. Sensitivity tests suggest that, for our simulated 18 ka climate, many of the glaciers exhibit a variable response to climate but were generally more sensitive to changes in temperature than to changes in precipitation, particularly those glaciers in central Idaho and the Yellowstone Plateau. Our results support arguments that temperature depression generally played a larger role in lowering equilibrium line altitudes in the western U.S. during the last glacial maximum than did increased precipitation, although the magnitude of temperature depression required for steady-state mass balance varied from 8-18??C. Only the Sierra Nevada glaciers required a substantial increase in precipitation to achieve steady-state mass balance, while glaciers in the Cascade Range existed with decreased precipitation.

The effects of climate change on heating energy consumption of office buildings in different climate zones in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Fanchao; Li, Mingcai; Cao, Jingfu; Li, Ji; Xiong, Mingming; Feng, Xiaomei; Ren, Guoyu

2017-06-01

Climate plays an important role in heating energy consumption owing to the direct relationship between space heating and changes in meteorological conditions. To quantify the impact, the Transient System Simulation Program software was used to simulate the heating loads of office buildings in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, representing three major climate zones (i.e., severe cold, cold, and hot summer and cold winter climate zones) in China during 1961-2010. Stepwise multiple linear regression was performed to determine the key climatic parameters influencing heating energy consumption. The results showed that dry bulb temperature (DBT) is the dominant climatic parameter affecting building heating loads in all three climate zones across China during the heating period at daily, monthly, and yearly scales (R 2 ≥ 0.86). With the continuous warming climate in winter over the past 50 years, heating loads decreased by 14.2, 7.2, and 7.1 W/m2 in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, respectively, indicating that the decreasing rate is more apparent in severe cold climate zone. When the DBT increases by 1 °C, the heating loads decrease by 253.1 W/m2 in Harbin, 177.2 W/m2 in Tianjin, and 126.4 W/m2 in Shanghai. These results suggest that the heating energy consumption can be well predicted by the regression models at different temporal scales in different climate conditions owing to the high determination coefficients. In addition, a greater decrease in heating energy consumption in northern severe cold and cold climate zones may efficiently promote the energy saving in these areas with high energy consumption for heating. Particularly, the likely future increase in temperatures should be considered in improving building energy efficiency.

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model for Simulating Winter Ozone Formation in the Uinta Basin with Intensive Oil and Gas Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matichuk, R.; Tonnesen, G.; Luecken, D.; Roselle, S. J.; Napelenok, S. L.; Baker, K. R.; Gilliam, R. C.; Misenis, C.; Murphy, B.; Schwede, D. B.

2015-12-01

The western United States is an important source of domestic energy resources. One of the primary environmental impacts associated with oil and natural gas production is related to air emission releases of a number of air pollutants. Some of these pollutants are important precursors to the formation of ground-level ozone. To better understand ozone impacts and other air quality issues, photochemical air quality models are used to simulate the changes in pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere on local, regional, and national spatial scales. These models are important for air quality management because they assist in identifying source contributions to air quality problems and designing effective strategies to reduce harmful air pollutants. The success of predicting oil and natural gas air quality impacts depends on the accuracy of the input information, including emissions inventories, meteorological information, and boundary conditions. The treatment of chemical and physical processes within these models is equally important. However, given the limited amount of data collected for oil and natural gas production emissions in the past and the complex terrain and meteorological conditions in western states, the ability of these models to accurately predict pollution concentrations from these sources is uncertain. Therefore, this presentation will focus on understanding the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model's ability to predict air quality impacts associated with oil and natural gas production and its sensitivity to input uncertainties. The results will focus on winter ozone issues in the Uinta Basin, Utah and identify the factors contributing to model performance issues. The results of this study will help support future air quality model development, policy and regulatory decisions for the oil and gas sector.

Effects of wind waves on horizontal array performance in shallow-water conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavol'skii, N. A.; Malekhanov, A. I.; Raevskii, M. A.; Smirnov, A. V.

2017-09-01

We analyze the influence of statistical effects of the propagation of an acoustic signal excited by a tone source in a shallow-water channel with a rough sea surface on the efficiency of a horizontal phased array. As the array characteristics, we consider the angular function of the array response for a given direction to the source and the coefficient of amplification of the signal-to-noise ratio (array gain). Numerical simulation was conducted in to the winter hydrological conditions of the Barents Sea in a wide range of parameters determining the spatial signal coherence. The results show the main physical effects of the influence of wind waves on the array characteristics and make it possible to quantitatively predict the efficiency of a large horizontal array in realistic shallow-water channels.

The Predicted Influence of Climate Change on Lesser Prairie-Chicken Reproductive Parameters

PubMed Central

Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, Dawn M.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001–2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter’s linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival. PMID:23874549

Atmospheric components of the surface energy budget over young sea ice: Results from the N-ICE2015 campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walden, Von P.; Hudson, Stephen R.; Cohen, Lana; Murphy, Sarah Y.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-08-01

The Norwegian young sea ice campaign obtained the first measurements of the surface energy budget over young, thin Arctic sea ice through the seasonal transition from winter to summer. This campaign was the first of its kind in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. This study describes the atmospheric and surface conditions and the radiative and turbulent heat fluxes over young, thin sea ice. The shortwave albedo of the snow surface ranged from about 0.85 in winter to 0.72-0.80 in early summer. The near-surface atmosphere was typically stable in winter, unstable in spring, and near neutral in summer once the surface skin temperature reached 0°C. The daily average radiative and turbulent heat fluxes typically sum to negative values (-40 to 0 W m-2) in winter but then transition toward positive values of up to nearly +60 W m-2 as solar radiation contributes significantly to the surface energy budget. The sensible heat flux typically ranges from +20-30 W m-2 in winter (into the surface) to negative values between 0 and -20 W m-2 in spring and summer. A winter case study highlights the significant effect of synoptic storms and demonstrates the complex interplay of wind, clouds, and heat and moisture advection on the surface energy components over sea ice in winter. A spring case study contrasts a rare period of 24 h of clear-sky conditions with typical overcast conditions and highlights the impact of clouds on the surface radiation and energy budgets over young, thin sea ice.

First-year growth, condition, and size-selective winter mortality of freshwater drum in the lower Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Braaten, P.J.; Guy, C.S.

2004-01-01

We compared first-year growth and relative condition (Kn) of the 1997 and 1998 year-classes of freshwater drum Aplodinotus grunniens among three sites in a 235-km reach of the channelized Missouri River and tested for the occurrence of size-selective overwinter mortality during the first winter. Prewinter mean length was 15 mm greater, mean weight was 8 g greater, and mean Kn was 5% greater at the upstream site than at the downstream site. The prewinter mean length of age-0 freshwater drum was significantly greater in 1997 (115 mm) than in 1998 (109 mm), but Kn was significantly greater in 1998 (107) than in 1997 (102). There was no evidence that density-dependent interactions influenced prewinter growth and Kn. Size-selective overwinter mortality of the smallest size-classes of freshwater drum occurred at two of three sites during the 1997-1998 winter, and K n decreased 9-15%. Size-selective overwinter mortality of the 1998 cohort of freshwater drum did not occur during the 1998-1999 winter, and K n declined 0-10%. A prolonged growing season (through early December 1998), in conjunction with less severe winter water temperature conditions, apparently minimized the incidence of size-selective overwinter mortality for the 1998 cohort of freshwater drum. We conclude that size-selective overwinter mortality of age-0 freshwater drum occurs in the lower channelized Missouri River but depends on the length of the prewinter growing season, winter duration, and the severity of winter water temperatures.

Winter Fish Populations in Probable Locations of Air Bubblers in the St. Marys River-Lake Superior Area

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-09-01

Lawrence Seaway Navigation Season Extension, Draft Main Report and Environmental Statement. Detroit, Michigan. Potential effects on fish were discussed...to keep channels ice free for winter vessel passage. The stucies were Jone to determine base line ecological conditions and the effects of the...Subjects were: "Ecological effects of air bub- blers in the winter, a partially annotated bibliography" and "Annotated bibliography on winter fish and

Impact of burned areas on the northern African seasonal climate from the perspective of regional modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sales, Fernando; Xue, Yongkang; Okin, Gregory S.

2016-12-01

This study investigates the impact of burned areas on the surface energy balance and monthly precipitation in northern Africa as simulated by a state-of-the-art regional model. Mean burned area fraction derived from MODIS date of burning product was implemented in a set of 1-year long WRF-NMM/SSiB2 model simulations. Vegetation cover fraction and LAI were degraded daily based on mean burned area fraction and on the survival rate for each vegetation land cover type. Additionally, ground darkening associated with wildfire-induced ash and charcoal deposition was imposed through lower ground albedo for a period after burning. In general, wildfire-induced vegetation and ground condition deterioration increased mean surface albedo by exposing the brighter bare ground, which in turn caused a decrease in monthly surface net radiation. On average, the wildfire-season albedo increase was approximately 6.3 % over the Sahel. The associated decrease in surface available energy caused a drop in surface sensible heat flux to the atmosphere during the dry months of winter and early spring, which gradually transitioned to a more substantial decrease in surface evapotranspiration in April and May that lessened throughout the rainy season. Overall, post-fire land condition deterioration resulted in a decrease in precipitation over sub-Saharan Africa, associated with the weakening of the West African monsoon progression through the region. A decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence was observed in the burned area simulations, which played a dominant role in reducing precipitation in the area, especially in the months preceding the monsoon onset. The areas with the largest precipitation impact were those covered by savannas and rainforests, where annual precipitation decreased by 3.8 and 3.3 %, respectively. The resulting precipitation decrease and vegetation deterioration caused a drop in gross primary productivity in the region, which was strongest in late winter and early spring. This study suggests the cooling and drying of atmosphere induced by burned areas caused the strengthening of subsidence during pre-onset and weakening of upward atmospheric motion during onset and mature stages of the monsoon leading to a waning of convective instability and precipitation. Monthly mid-tropospheric vertical wind showed a strengthening of downward motion in winter and spring seasons, and weakening of upward movement during the rainy months. Furthermore, precipitation energy analysis revealed that most of precipitation decrease originated from convective events, which supports the hypothesis of reduced convective instability due to wildfires.

Hellsgate Big Game Winter Range Wildlife Mitigation Site Specific Management Plan for the Hellsgate Project.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berger, Matthew T.; Judd, Steven L.

This report contains a detailed site-specific management plan for the Hellsgate Winter Range Wildlife Mitigation Project. The report provides background information about the mitigation process, the review process, mitigation acquisitions, Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) and mitigation crediting, current habitat conditions, desired future habitat conditions, restoration/enhancements efforts and maps.

Biofortification of hard red winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) by genes conditioning low phytate and high grain protein concentration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recombinant inbred lines (RILs) of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) were used to determine whether the combination of low grain phytate (LPA) conditioned by lpa1-1, and Gpc-B1 (GPC- grain protein content) alleles would simultaneously increase beneficial mineral concentrations and grain protein wi...

Winter feeding success of stream trout under different streamflow and turbidity conditions

Treesearch

Jason L. White; Bret C. Harvey

2007-01-01

To investigate the relationship between turbidity and trout feeding success in natural systems, we sampled the stomach contents of resident rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss and coastal cutthroat trout O. clarkii clarkii under different streamflow and turbidity conditions during winter in two northwestern California streams (total sample size¼161). Feeding success...

On the Influence of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature on the Arctic Winter Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Newman, P. A.; Garfinkel, C. I.

2012-01-01

Differences between two ensembles of Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model simulations isolate the impact of North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the Arctic winter climate. One ensemble of extended winter season forecasts is forced by unusually high SSTs in the North Pacific, while in the second ensemble SSTs in the North Pacific are unusually low. High Low differences are consistent with a weakened Western Pacific atmospheric teleconnection pattern, and in particular, a weakening of the Aleutian low. This relative change in tropospheric circulation inhibits planetary wave propagation into the stratosphere, in turn reducing polar stratospheric temperature in mid- and late winter. The number of winters with sudden stratospheric warmings is approximately tripled in the Low ensemble as compared with the High ensemble. Enhanced North Pacific SSTs, and thus a more stable and persistent Arctic vortex, lead to a relative decrease in lower stratospheric ozone in late winter, affecting the April clear-sky UV index at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.

The impact of changing the land surface scheme in ACCESS(v1.0/1.1) on the surface climatology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kowalczyk, Eva A.; Stevens, Lauren E.; Law, Rachel M.

The Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model has been coupled to the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) within the existing framework of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS), replacing the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme (MOSES). Here we investigate how features of the CABLE model impact on present-day surface climate using ACCESS atmosphere-only simulations. The main differences attributed to CABLE include a warmer winter and a cooler summer in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), earlier NH spring runoff from snowmelt, and smaller seasonal and diurnal temperature ranges. The cooler NH summer temperatures in canopy-covered regions aremore » more consistent with observations and are attributed to two factors. Firstly, CABLE accounts for aerodynamic and radiative interactions between the canopy and the ground below; this placement of the canopy above the ground eliminates the need for a separate bare ground tile in canopy-covered areas. Secondly, CABLE simulates larger evapotranspiration fluxes and a slightly larger daytime cloud cover fraction. Warmer NH winter temperatures result from the parameterization of cold climate processes in CABLE in snow-covered areas. In particular, prognostic snow density increases through the winter and lowers the diurnally resolved snow albedo; variable snow thermal conductivity prevents early winter heat loss but allows more heat to enter the ground as the snow season progresses; liquid precipitation freezing within the snowpack delays the building of the snowpack in autumn and accelerates snow melting in spring. Altogether we find that the ACCESS simulation of surface air temperature benefits from the specific representation of the turbulent transport within and just above the canopy in the roughness sublayer as well as the more complex snow scheme in CABLE relative to MOSES.« less

The impact of changing the land surface scheme in ACCESS(v1.0/1.1) on the surface climatology

DOE PAGES

Kowalczyk, Eva A.; Stevens, Lauren E.; Law, Rachel M.; ...

2016-08-23

The Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model has been coupled to the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) within the existing framework of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS), replacing the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme (MOSES). Here we investigate how features of the CABLE model impact on present-day surface climate using ACCESS atmosphere-only simulations. The main differences attributed to CABLE include a warmer winter and a cooler summer in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), earlier NH spring runoff from snowmelt, and smaller seasonal and diurnal temperature ranges. The cooler NH summer temperatures in canopy-covered regions aremore » more consistent with observations and are attributed to two factors. Firstly, CABLE accounts for aerodynamic and radiative interactions between the canopy and the ground below; this placement of the canopy above the ground eliminates the need for a separate bare ground tile in canopy-covered areas. Secondly, CABLE simulates larger evapotranspiration fluxes and a slightly larger daytime cloud cover fraction. Warmer NH winter temperatures result from the parameterization of cold climate processes in CABLE in snow-covered areas. In particular, prognostic snow density increases through the winter and lowers the diurnally resolved snow albedo; variable snow thermal conductivity prevents early winter heat loss but allows more heat to enter the ground as the snow season progresses; liquid precipitation freezing within the snowpack delays the building of the snowpack in autumn and accelerates snow melting in spring. Altogether we find that the ACCESS simulation of surface air temperature benefits from the specific representation of the turbulent transport within and just above the canopy in the roughness sublayer as well as the more complex snow scheme in CABLE relative to MOSES.« less

Role of the Tropical Pacific in recent Antarctic Sea-Ice Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Codron, F.; Bardet, D.; Allouache, C.; Gastineau, G.; Friedman, A. R.; Douville, H.; Voldoire, A.

2017-12-01

The recent (up to 2016) trends in Antarctic sea-ice cover - a global increase masking a dipole between the Ross and Bellingshausen-Weddel seas - are still not well understood, and not reproduced by CMIP5 coupled climate models. We here explore the potential role of atmospheric circulation changes around the Amundsen Sea, themselves possibly forced by tropical SSTs, an explanation that has been recently advanced. As a first check on this hypothesis, we compare the atmospheric circulation trends simulated by atmospheric GCMs coupled with an ocean or with imposed SSTs (AMIP experiment from CMIP5); the latter being in theory able to reproduce changes caused by natural SST variability. While coupled models simulate in aggregate trends that project on the SAM structure, strongest in summer, the AMIP simulations add in the winter season a pronounced Amundsen Sea Low signature (and a PNA signature in the northern hemisphere) both consistent with a Niña-like trend in the tropical Pacific. We then use a specific coupled GCM setup, in which surface wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific are strongly nudged towards the observed ones, including their interannual variability, but the model is free to evolve elsewhere. The two GCMs used then simulate a deepening trend in the Amundsen-Sea Low in winter, and are able to reproduce a dipole in sea-ice cover. Further analysis shows that the sea-ice dipole is partially forced by surface heat flux anomalies in early winter - the extent varying with the region and GCM used. The turbulent heat fluxes then act to damp the anomalies in late winter, which may however be maintained by ice-albedo feedbacks.

Ice conditions on the Chesapeake Bay as observed from LANDSAT during the winters of 1977, 1978 and 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, J. L.

1980-01-01

The LANDSAT observations during the winters of 1977, 1978 and 1979, which were unusually cold in the northeastern U.S. and in the Chesapeake Bay area, were evaluated. Abnormal atmospheric circulation patterns displaced cold polar air to the south, and as a result, the Chesapeake Bay experienced much greater than normal icing conditions during these 3 years. The LANDSAT observations of the Chesapeake Bay area during these winters demonstrate the satellite's capabilities to monitor ice growth and melt, to detect ice motions, and to measure ice extent.

Winter wheat response to irrigation, nitrogen fertilization, and cold hazards in the Community Land Model 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Y.

2017-12-01

Winter wheat is a staple crop for global food security, and is the dominant vegetation cover for a significant fraction of earth's croplands. As such, it plays an important role in soil carbon balance, and land-atmosphere interactions in these key regions. Accurate simulation of winter wheat growth is not only crucial for future yield prediction under changing climate, but also for understanding the energy and water cycles for winter wheat dominated regions. A winter wheat growth model has been developed in the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM4.5), but its responses to irrigation and nitrogen fertilization have not been validated. In this study, I will validate winter wheat growth response to irrigation and nitrogen fertilization at five winter wheat field sites (TXLU, KSMA, NESA, NDMA, and ABLE) in North America, which were originally designed to understand winter wheat response to nitrogen fertilization and water treatments (4 nitrogen levels and 3 irrigation regimes). I also plan to further update the linkages between winter wheat yield and cold hazards. The previous cold damage function only indirectly affects yield through reduction on leaf area index (LAI) and hence photosynthesis, such approach could sometimes produce an unwanted higher yield when the reduced LAI saved more nutrient in the grain fill stage.

Effects of soil water availability on water fluxes in winter wheat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, G.; Vanderborght, J.; Langensiepen, M.; Vereecken, H.

2014-12-01

Quantifying soil water availability in water-limited ecosystems on plant water use continues to be a practical problem in agronomy. Transpiration which represents plant water demand is closely in relation to root water uptake in the root zone and sap flow in plant stems. However, few studies have been concentrated on influences of soil moisture on root water uptake and sap flow in crops. This study was undertaken to investigate (i) whether root water uptake and sap flow correlate with the transpiration estimated by the Penman-Monteith model for winter wheat(Triticum aestivum), and (ii) for which soil water potentials in the root zone, the root water uptake and sap flow rates in crop stems would be reduced. Therefore, we measured sap flow velocities by an improved heat-balance approach (Langensiepen et al., 2014), calculated crop transpiration by Penman-Monteith model, and simulated root water uptake by HYDRUS-1D on an hourly scale for different soil water status in winter wheat. In order to assess the effects of soil water potential on root water uptake and sap flow, an average soil water potential was calculated by weighting the soil water potential at a certain depth with the root length density. The temporal evolution of root length density was measured using horizontal rhizotubes that were installed at different depths.The results showed that root water uptake and sap flow matched well with the computed transpiration by Penman-Monteith model in winter wheat when the soil water potential was not limiting root water uptake. However, low soil water content restrained root water uptake, especially when soil water potential was lower than -90 kPa in the top soil. Sap flow in wheat was not affected by the observed soil water conditions, suggesting that stomatal conductance was not sensitive to soil water potentials. The effect of drought stress on root water uptake and sap flow in winter wheat was only investigated in a short time (after anthesis). Further research could focus on a long time (e.g. from vegetation to maturity) effect under different soil water conditions, such as irrigated, sheltered and normal status. Langensiepen, M., Kupisch, M., Graf, A., Schmidt, M. and Ewert, F., 2014. Improving the stem heat balance method for determining sap-flow in wheat. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 186: 34-42.

Variability in the combustion-derived fraction of urban humidity in Salt Lake City winter estimated from stable water vapor isotopes and its relationship to atmospheric stability and inversion structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorella, R.; Bares, R.; Lin, J. C.; Strong, C.; Bowen, G. J.

2017-12-01

Water released from the combustion of fossil fuels, while a negligible part of the global hydrological cycle, may be a significant contributor to urban humidity as fossil fuel emissions are strongly concentrated in space and time. The fraction of urban humidity comprised of combustion-derived vapor (CDV) cannot be observed through humidity measurements alone. However, the distinct stable isotopic composition of CDV, which arises from the reaction of 18O-enriched atmospheric O2 with 2H-depleted organic molecules, represents a promising method to apportion observed humidity between CDV and advected vapor. We apply stable water vapor isotopes to investigate variability in CDV amount and its relationship to atmospheric conditions in Salt Lake City, Utah. The Salt Lake Valley experiences several periods of atmospheric stratification during winter known as cold air pools, during which concentrations of CDV and pollutants can be markedly elevated due to reduced atmospheric mixing. Therefore, the SLV during winter is an ideal place to investigate variability in CDV fraction across a spectrum of boundary layer conditions, ranging from well-mixed to very stable. We present water vapor isotope data from four winters (2013-2017) from the top of a 30 m building on the University of Utah (U of U) Campus. Additionally, we present water vapor isotope data from the summit of Hidden Peak from the 2016-2017 winter, 25 km SE and 2000 m above the U of U site. The Hidden Peak site is consistently above the cold air pool emplaced in the SLV during stable events. We find the expression of the CDV signal in the valley is related to the atmospheric structure of the cold air pools in the SLV, and that the fraction of CDV inferred in the valley is likely related to the mixing height within the cold air pool. Furthermore, we find that patterns between the Hidden Peak and U of U sites during inversion events may record the large-scale atmospheric dynamics promoting emplacement of the cold air pool in the SLV. Further refinements of CDV estimation through stable isotope methods will bring improved mechanistic understanding of the role of CDV in the urban hydrological cycle and improve model simulations of urban environments.

MoSI (Monitoreo de Sobrevivencia Invernal): assessing habitat-specific overwintering survival of neotropical migratory landbirds

Treesearch

David F. DeSante; T. Scott Sillett; Rodney B. Siegel; James F. Saracco; Claudia A. Romo de Vivar Alvarez; Salvadora Morales; Alexis Cerezo; Danielle R. Kaschube; Manuel Grosselet; Borja Mila

2005-01-01

Recent evidence suggests that population declines in many Neotropical-wintering migratory landbird species are caused by habitat loss and degradation on their wintering grounds. Such habitat loss and degradation can lower overwintering survival rates and cause surviving birds to leave their wintering grounds in poor physical condition, leading to high mortality during...

Effects of prescribed burns on wintering cavity-nesting birds

Treesearch

Heather L. Bateman; Margaret A. O' Connell

2006-01-01

Primary cavity-nesting birds play a critical role in forest ecosystems by excavating cavities later used by other birds and mammals as nesting or roosting sites. Several species of cavity-nesting birds are non-migratory residents and consequently subject to winter conditions. We conducted winter bird counts from 1998 to 2000 to examine the abundance and habitat...

Habitat capability model for birds wintering in the Black Hills, South Dakota

Treesearch

Mark A. Rumble; Todd R. Mills; Lester D. Flake

1999-01-01

Birds are sensitive indicators of vegetation conditions because they have relatively narrow habitat requirements (Martin and Finch 1995). Resident bird populations are relatively stable in winter (Ralph et al. 1993) and more closely associated with specific habitats than during summer (Huff et al. 1991, Manuwal and Huff 1987). Winter can be critical for birds in...

Distributed modeling of surface solar radiation based on aerosol optical depth and sunshine duration in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; Ma, Yue

2018-02-01

Surface solar radiation, as a major component of energy balance, is an important driving condition for nutrient and energy cycle in the Earth system. The spatial distribution of total solar radiation at 10 km×10 km resolution in China was simulated with Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data from remote sensing and observing sunshine hours data from ground meteorological stations based on Geographic Information System (GIS). The results showed that the solar radiation was significantly different in the country, and affected by both sunshine hours and AOD. Sunshine hours are higher in the Northwest than that in the Northeast, but solar radiation is lower because of the higher AOD, especially in autumn and winter. It was suggested that the calculation accuracy of solar radiation was limited if just based on sunshine hours, and AOD can be considered as the influencing factor which would help to improve the simulation accuracy of the total solar radiation and realize the solar radiation distributed simulation.

Effects of maternal characteristics and climatic variation on birth masses of Alaskan caribou

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, Layne G.

2005-01-01

Understanding factors that influence birth mass of mammals provides insights to nutritional trade-offs made by females to optimize their reproduction, growth, and survival. I evaluated variation in birth mass of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in central Alaska relative to maternal characteristics (age, body mass, cohort, and nutritional condition as influenced by winter severity) during 11 years with substantial variation in winter snowfall. Snowfall during gestation was the predominant factor explaining variation in birth masses, influencing birth mass inversely and through interactions with maternal age and lactation status. Maternal age effects were noted for females ≤ 5 years old, declining in magnitude with each successive age class. Birth mass as a proportion of autumn maternal mass was inversely related to winter snowfall, even though there was no decrease in masses of adult females in late winter associated with severe winters. I found no evidence of a hypothesized intergenerational effect of lower birth masses for offspring of females born after severe winters. Caribou produce relatively small offspring but provide exceptional lactation support for those that survive. Conservative maternal investment before parturition may represent an optimal reproductive strategy given that caribou experience stochastic variation in winter severity during gestation, uncertainty of environmental conditions surrounding the birth season, and intense predation on neonates.

Seasonal variation of the global mixed layer depth: comparison between Argo data and FIO-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yutong; Xu, Haiming; Qiao, Fangli; Dong, Changming

2018-03-01

The present study evaluates a simulation of the global ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) using the First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model (FIOESM). The seasonal variation of the global MLD from the FIO-ESM simulation is compared to Argo observational data. The Argo data show that the global ocean MLD has a strong seasonal variation with a deep MLD in winter and a shallow MLD in summer, while the spring and fall seasons act as transitional periods. Overall, the FIO-ESM simulation accurately captures the seasonal variation in MLD in most areas. It exhibits a better performance during summer and fall than during winter and spring. The simulated MLD in the Southern Hemisphere is much closer to observations than that in the Northern Hemisphere. In general, the simulated MLD over the South Atlantic Ocean matches the observation best among the six areas. Additionally, the model slightly underestimates the MLD in parts of the North Atlantic Ocean, and slightly overestimates the MLD over the other ocean basins.

Impact of Land Cover Characterization and Properties on Snow Albedo in Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Bartlett, P. A.; Chan, E.; Montesano, P.

2017-12-01

The simulation of winter albedo in boreal and northern environments has been a particular challenge for land surface modellers. Assessments of output from CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models have revealed that many simulations are characterized by overestimation of albedo in the boreal forest. Recent studies suggest that inaccurate representation of vegetation distribution, improper simulation of leaf area index, and poor treatment of canopy-snow processes are the primary causes of albedo errors. While several land cover datasets are commonly used to derive plant functional types (PFT) for use in climate models, new land cover and vegetation datasets with higher spatial resolution have become available in recent years. In this study, we compare the spatial distribution of the dominant PFTs and canopy cover fractions based on different land cover datasets, and present results from offline simulations of the latest version Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) over the northern Hemisphere land. We discuss the impact of land cover representation and surface properties on winter albedo simulations in climate models.

Simulated cold bias being improved by using MODIS time-varying albedo in the Tibetan Plateau in WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, X.; Lyu, S.; Zhang, T.; Zhao, L.; Li, Z.; Han, B.; Li, S.; Ma, D.; Chen, H.; Ao, Y.; Luo, S.; Shen, Y.; Guo, J.; Wen, L.

2018-04-01

Systematic cold biases exist in the simulation for 2 m air temperature in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) when using regional climate models and global atmospheric general circulation models. We updated the albedo in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model lower boundary condition using the Global LAnd Surface Satellite Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer albedo products and demonstrated evident improvement for cold temperature biases in the TP. It is the large overestimation of albedo in winter and spring in the WRF model that resulted in the large cold temperature biases. The overestimated albedo was caused by the simulated precipitation biases and over-parameterization of snow albedo. Furthermore, light-absorbing aerosols can result in a large reduction of albedo in snow and ice cover. The results suggest the necessity of developing snow albedo parameterization using observations in the TP, where snow cover and melting are very different from other low-elevation regions, and the influence of aerosols should be considered as well. In addition to defining snow albedo, our results show an urgent call for improving precipitation simulation in the TP.

Evidence of social deprivation on the spatial patterns of excess winter mortality.

PubMed

Almendra, Ricardo; Santana, Paula; Vasconcelos, João

2017-11-01

The aims of this study are to identify the patterns of excess winter mortality (due to diseases of the circulatory system) and to analyse the association between the excess winter deaths (EWD) and socio-economic deprivation in Portugal. The number of EWD in 2002-2011 was estimated by comparing the number of deaths in winter months with the average number in non-winter months. The EWD ratio of each municipality was calculated by following the indirect standardization method and then compared with two deprivation indexes (socio-material and housing deprivation index) through ecological regression models. This study found that: (1) the EWD ratio showed considerable asymmetry in its geography; (2) there are significant positive associations between the EWD ratio and both deprivation indexes; and (3) at the higher level of deprivation, housing conditions have a stronger association with EWD than socio-material conditions. The significant association between two deprivation dimensions (socio-material and housing deprivation) and EWDs suggests that EWD geographical pattern is influenced by deprivation.

Remote sensing of selected winter and spring host plants of tarnished plant bug (Heteroptera: Miridae) and herbicide use strategies as a management tactic

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Remote sensing was used in a series of experiments over a three-year period to obtain spectral reflectance data for use in studying differences in vegetation indices between grasses, broadleaf plants, and grass/broadleaf plant mixtures. Empirical simulations of selected non-crop winter and spring h...

Application of regional climate models to the Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas.

PubMed

Dimri, A P; Yasunari, T; Wiltshire, A; Kumar, P; Mathison, C; Ridley, J; Jacob, D

2013-12-01

The Himalayan region is characterized by pronounced topographic heterogeneity and land use variability from west to east, with a large variation in regional climate patterns. Over the western part of the region, almost one-third of the annual precipitation is received in winter during cyclonic storms embedded in westerlies, known locally as the western disturbance. In the present paper, the regional winter climate over the western Himalayas is analyzed from simulations produced by two regional climate models (RCMs) forced with large-scale fields from ERA-Interim. The analysis was conducted by the composition of contrasting (wet and dry) winter precipitation years. The findings showed that RCMs could simulate the regional climate of the western Himalayas and represent the atmospheric circulation during extreme precipitation years in accordance with observations. The results suggest the important role of topography in moisture fluxes, transport and vertical flows. Dynamical downscaling with RCMs represented regional climates at the mountain or even event scale. However, uncertainties of precipitation scale and liquid-solid precipitation ratios within RCMs are still large for the purposes of hydrological and glaciological studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interannual variability (1979-2013) of the North-Western Mediterranean deep water mass formation: past observation reanalysis and coupled ocean-atmosphere high-resolution modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somot, Samuel; Houpert, Loic; Sevault, Florence; Testor, Pierre; Bosse, Anthony; Durrieu de Madron, Xavier; Dubois, Clotilde; Herrmann, Marine; Waldman, Robin; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Cassou, Christophe

2015-04-01

The North-Western Mediterranean Sea is known as one of the only place in the world where open-sea deep convection occurs (often up to more than 2000m) with the formation of the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW). This phenomena is mostly driven by local preconditioning of the water column and strong buoyancy losses during Winter. At the event scale, the WMDW formation is characterized by different phases (preconditioning, strong mixing, restratification and spreading), intense air-sea interaction and strong meso-scale activity but, on a longer time scale, it also shows a large interannual variability and may be strongly affected by climate change with impact on the regional biogeochemistry. Therefore observing, simulating and understanding the long-term temporal variability of the North-Western Mediterranean deep water formation is still today a very challenging task. We try here to tackle those issues thanks to (1) a thorough reanalysis of past in-situ observations (CTD, Argo, surface and deep moorings, gliders) and (2) an ERA-Interim driven simulation using a recently-developed fully coupled Regional Climate System Model (CNRM-RCSM4, Sevault et al. 2014). The multi-decadal simulation (1979-2013) is designed to be temporally and spatially homogeneous with a realistic chronology, a high resolution representation of both the regional ocean and atmosphere, specific initial conditions, a long-term spin-up and a full ocean-atmosphere coupling without constraint at the air-sea interface. The observation reanalysis allows to reconstruct interannual time series of deep water formation indicators (ocean surface variables, mixed layer depth, surface of the convective area, dense water volumes and characteristics of the deep water). Using the observation-based indicators and the model outputs, the 34 Winters of the period 1979-2013 are analysed in terms of weather regimes, related Winter air-sea fluxes, ocean preconditioning, mixed layer depth, surface of the convective area, deep water formation rate and long-term evolution of the deep water hydrology.

Sources of secondary organic aerosols over North China Plain in winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, L.; Li, G.; Tie, X.; Junji, C.; Long, X.

2017-12-01

Organic aerosol (OA) concentrations are simulated over the North China Plain (NCP) from 10th to 26th January, 2014 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to chemistry (WRF-CHEM), with the goal of examining the impact of heterogeneous HONO sources on atmospheric oxidation capacity and consequently on SOA formation and SOA formation from different pathways in winter. Generally, the model well reproduced the spatial and temporal distribution of PM2.5, SO2, NO2, and O3 concentrations. The heterogeneous HONO formation contributed a major part of atmospheric HONO concentrations in Beijing. The heterogeneous HONO sources significantly increased the daily maximum OH concentrations by 260% on average in Beijing, which enhanced the atmospheric oxidation capacity and consequently SOA concentrations by 80% in Beijing on average. Under severe haze pollution on January 16th 2014, the regional average HONO concentration over NCP was 0.86 ppb, which increased SOA concentration by 68% on average. The average mass fractions of ASOA (SOA from oxidation of anthropogenic VOCs), BSOA (SOA from oxidation of biogenic VOCs), PSOA (SOA from oxidation of evaporated POA), and GSOA (SOA from irreversible uptake of glyoxal and methylglyoxal) during the simulation period over NCP were 24%, 5%, 26% and 45%, respectively. GSOA contributed most to the total SOA mass over NCP in winter. The model sensitivity simulation revealed that GSOA in winter was mainly from primary residential sources. The regional average of GSOA from primary residential sources constituted 87% of total GSOA mass.

Improving UK Air Quality Modelling Through Exploitation of Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, Richard; Chipperfield, Martyn; Savage, Nick

2014-05-01

In this work the applicability of satellite observations to evaluate the operational UK Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model (AQUM) have been investigated. The main focus involved the AQUM validation against satellite observations, investigation of satellite retrieval error types and of synoptic meteorological-atmospheric chemistry relationships simulated/seen by the AQUM/satellite. The AQUM is a short range forecast model of atmospheric chemistry and aerosols up to 5 days. It has been designed to predict potentially hazardous air pollution events, e.g. high concentrations of surface ozone. The AQUM has only been validated against UK atmospheric chemistry recording surface stations. Therefore, satellite observations of atmospheric chemistry have been used to further validate the model, taking advantage of better satellite spatial coverage. Observations of summer and winter 2006 tropospheric column NO2 from both OMI and SCIAMACHY show that the AQUM generally compares well with the observations. However, in northern England positive biases (AQUM - satellite) suggest that the AQUM overestimates column NO2; we present results of sensitivity experiments on UK emissions datasets suspected to be the cause. In winter, the AQUM over predicts background column NO2 when compared to both satellite instruments. We hypothesise that the cause is the AQUM winter night-time chemistry, where the NO2 sinks are not substantially defined. Satellite data are prone to errors/uncertainty such as random, systematic and smoothing errors. We have investigated these error types and developed an algorithm to calculate and reduce the random error component of DOAS NO2 retrievals, giving more robust seasonal satellite composites. The Lamb Weather Types (LWT), an objective method of classifying the daily synoptic weather over the UK, were used to create composite satellite maps of column NO2 under different synoptic conditions. Under cyclonic conditions, satellite observed UK column NO2 is reduced as the indicative south-westerly flow transports it away from the UK over the North Sea. However, under anticyclonic conditions, the satellite shows that the stable conditions enhance the build-up of column NO2 over source regions. The influence of wind direction on column NO2 can also be seen from space with transport leeward of the source regions.

The structure of winter phytoplankton in Lake Nero, Russia, a hypertrophic lake dominated by Planktothrix-like Cyanobacteria

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The permanent dominance of Planktothrix-like сyanobacteria has been often reported for shallow eutrophic\\hypertrophic lakes in central Europe in summer\\autumn. However studies on phytoplankton growth under ice cover in nutrient-rich lakes are very scarce. Lake Nero provides a good example of the contrasting seasonal extremes in environmental conditions. Moreover, the ecosystem underwent a catastrophic transition from eutrophic to hypertrophic 2003–05, with dominance of filamentous cyanobacteria in summer\\autumn. Towards the end of the period of ice cover, there is an almost complete lack of light and oxygen but abundance in nutrients, especially ammonium nitrogen, soluble reactive phosphorus and total phosphorus in lake Nero. The aim of the present study was to describe species composition and abundance of the phytoplankton, in relation to the abiotic properties of the habitat to the end of winters 1999–2010. We were interested if Planktothrix-like сyanobacteria kept their dominant role under the ice conditions or only survived, and how did the under-ice phytoplankton community differ from year to year. Results Samples collected contained 172 algal taxa of sub-generic rank. Abundance of phytoplankton varied widely from very low to the bloom level. Cyanobacteria (Limnothrix, Pseudanabaena, Planktothrix) were present in all winter samples but did not always dominate. Favourable conditions included low winter temperature, thicker ice, almost complete lack of oxygen and high ammonium concentration. Flagellates belonging to Euglenophyta and Cryptophyta dominated in warmer winters, when phosphorus concentrations increased. Conclusion A full picture of algal succession in the lake may be obtained only if systematic winter observations are taken into account. Nearly anoxic conditions, severe light deficiency and high concentration of biogenic elements present a highly selective environment for phytoplankton. Hypertrophic water bodies of moderate zone covered by ice in winter and dominated by Planktothrix - like сyanobacteria in summer/autumn may follow several scenarios in the end of winter. It may be intense proliferation сyanobacteria normally dominating in summer, or the switch to the other species like the euglenoids and cryptomonads flagellates, or almost total depletion of phytoplankton. PMID:24079446

Do Peatlands Hibernate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorrepaal, E.; Signarbieux, C.; Jassey, V.; Mills, R.; Buttler, A.; Robroek, B.

2014-12-01

Winter seasonality with extensive frost, snow cover and low incoming radiation characterise large areas at mid- and high latitudes, especially in mountain ranges and in the arctic. Given these adverse conditions, it is often assumed that ecosystem processes, such as plant photosynthesis, nutrient uptake and microbial activities, cease, or at best diminish to marginal rates compared to summer. However, snow is a good thermal insulator and a sufficiently thick snow cover might enable temperature-limited processes to continue in winter, especially belowground. Changes in winter precipitation may alter these conditions, yet, relative to the growing season, winter ecosystem processes remain poorly understood. We performed a snow-removal experiment on an ombrotrophic bog in the Swiss Jura mountains (1036 m.a.s.l.) to compare above- and belowground ecosystem processes with and without snow cover during mid- and late-winter (February and April) with the subsequent spring (June) and summer (July). The presence of 1m snow in mid-winter and 0.4m snow in late-winter strongly reduced the photosynthetic capacity (Amax) of Eriophorum vaginatum as well as the total microbial biomass compared to spring and summer values. Amax of Sphagnum magellanicum and uptake of 15N-labelled ammonium-nitrate by vascular plants were, however, almost as high or higher in mid- and late-winter as in summer. Snow removal increased the number of freeze-thaw cycles in mid-winter but also increased the minimum soil temperature in late-winter before ambient snow-melt. This strongly reduced all measured ecosystem processes in mid-winter compared to control and to spring and summer values. Plant 15N-uptake, Amax of Eriophorum and total microbial biomass returned to, or exceeded, control values soon before or after snowmelt. However, Sphagnum Amax and its length growth, as well as the structure of the microbial community showed clear carry-over effects of the reduced winter snow cover into next summer. Altogether, our data indicate that peatlands are active in winter. However, a continuous snow cover is crucial for ecosystem processes both in winter and in the subsequent summer and a reduction of snow thickness or duration due to climate change may impact on peatland ecosystem functioning at various levels.

Effect of the El Nino/southern oscillation on Gulf of Mexico, winter, frontal-wave cyclones: 1960-1989. (Volumes I and II)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manty, R.E.

Seasonal counts of frontal-wave cyclones forming over the Gulf of Mexico and its coastal plain show more storms in the five El Nino winters and fewer storms in the eight La Nina winters, from 1960 to 1989, significant at the .01 level by a rank sum test. This is corroborated by two results. First, during the same period, the frequency of frontal-overrunning weather conditions in the region, indicative of storms, was higher in El Nino winters and lower in La Nina winters. Second, 100 years of precipitation and temperature records show wetter, cooler El Nino winters and drier, warmer Lamore » Nina winters at gulf-region land stations and climatic divisions. A threefold explanation, based on National Meteorological Center, upper-air data, is offered for the greater frequency of gulf-region cyclogenesis during El Nino winters between 1960 and 1989. (1) The winter, mean, 250-mb jet over the southern US is intensified by 5 to 10 ms[sup [minus]1] and displaced southward between 110[degrees] and 75[degrees]W by an average of 200 to 285 km during the five El Nino winters. This implies stronger and more frequent episodes of jet-associated, upper-level troughing and divergence over the region, reinforcing surface, frontal-wave cyclones. (2) In the five El Nino winters between 1963 and 1989, seasonal average heights and temperatures of the 850-, 700-, 500-, and 200-mb surfaces are lower over the region than they are in non-El Nino winters. This implies more-common presence of cold, low-pressure troughs at upper levels, reinforcing surface cyclones. (3) A 10[degrees] eastward shift, at sea level, of the western edge of the Bermuda high during the eight El Nino winters, changes normally due-easterly trades in the northwestern Caribbean Sea to slightly south of east, allowing greater advection of moisture and heat into the gulf from the tropics, preconditioning the area for development of surface cyclones. Only winter season shows all three conditions and an increase in cyclogenesis.« less

Forecasting urban PM10 and PM2.5 pollution episodes in very stable nocturnal conditions and complex terrain using WRF-Chem CO tracer model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saide, Pablo E.; Carmichael, Gregory R.; Spak, Scott N.; Gallardo, Laura; Osses, Axel E.; Mena-Carrasco, Marcelo A.; Pagowski, Mariusz

2011-05-01

This study presents a system to predict high pollution events that develop in connection with enhanced subsidence due to coastal lows, particularly in winter over Santiago de Chile. An accurate forecast of these episodes is of interest since the local government is entitled by law to take actions in advance to prevent public exposure to PM10 concentrations in excess of 150 μg m -3 (24 h running averages). The forecasting system is based on accurately simulating carbon monoxide (CO) as a PM10/PM2.5 surrogate, since during episodes and within the city there is a high correlation (over 0.95) among these pollutants. Thus, by accurately forecasting CO, which behaves closely to a tracer on this scale, a PM estimate can be made without involving aerosol-chemistry modeling. Nevertheless, the very stable nocturnal conditions over steep topography associated with maxima in concentrations are hard to represent in models. Here we propose a forecast system based on the WRF-Chem model with optimum settings, determined through extensive testing, that best describe both meteorological and air quality available measurements. Some of the important configurations choices involve the boundary layer (PBL) scheme, model grid resolution (both vertical and horizontal), meteorological initial and boundary conditions and spatial and temporal distribution of the emissions. A forecast for the 2008 winter is performed showing that this forecasting system is able to perform similarly to the authority decision for PM10 and better than persistence when forecasting PM10 and PM2.5 high pollution episodes. Problems regarding false alarm predictions could be related to different uncertainties in the model such as day to day emission variability, inability of the model to completely resolve the complex topography and inaccuracy in meteorological initial and boundary conditions. Finally, according to our simulations, emissions from previous days dominate episode concentrations, which highlights the need for 48 h forecasts that can be achieved by the system presented here. This is in fact the largest advantage of the proposed system.

Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watersheds using SWAT model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrat...

Seasonal Predictions with the GEOS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Chang, Yehui; Suarez, Max

1999-01-01

A number of ensembles of seasonal forecasts have recently been completed as part of NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). The focus is on the extratropical response of the atmosphere to observed Surface Sea Temperature (SST) anomalies during boreal winter. The prediction experiments consist of nine forecasts starting from slightly different initial conditions for each year of the 15 year period 1981-95, employing version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric Global Circulation Models (GCM). The initial conditions are obtained from the NASA GEOS-1 reanalysis data. Comparisons with a companion set of six long-term simulations with observed SST (starting in 1978, so they have no memory of the initial conditions for the periods of interest) are used to assess the relative contributions of the initial conditions and SST anomalies to forecast skill ranging from daily to seasonal time scales. The ensembles are used to isolate the signal, and to assess the nature of the inherent variability (noise) of the forecasts.

Smart grid integration of small-scale trigeneration systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacheva, Gergana; Kanchev, Hristiyan; Hinov, Nikolay

2017-12-01

This paper presents a study on the possibilities for implementation of local heating, air-conditioning and electricity generation (trigeneration) as distributed energy resource in the Smart Grid. By the means of microturbine-based generators and absorption chillers buildings are able to meet partially or entirely their electrical load curve or even supply power to the grid by following their heating and air-conditioning daily schedule. The principles of small-scale cooling, heating and power generation systems are presented at first, then the thermal calculations of an example building are performed: the heat losses due to thermal conductivity and the estimated daily heating and air-conditioning load curves. By considering daily power consumption curves and weather data for several winter and summer days, the heating/air-conditioning schedule is estimated and the available electrical energy from a microturbine-based cogeneration system is estimated. Simulation results confirm the potential of using cogeneration and trigeneration systems for local distributed electricity generation and grid support in the daily peaks of power consumption.

Effects of sea ice on winter site fidelity of Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Margaret R.; Douglas, David C.; Wilson, Heather M.; McCloskey, Sarah E.

2012-01-01

In northern marine habitats, the presence or absence of sea ice results in variability in the distribution of many species and the quality and availability of pelagic winter habitat. To understand the effects of ice on intra- and inter-annual winter site fidelity and movements in a northern sea-duck species, we marked 25 adult Pacific Common Eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) on their nesting area at Cape Espenberg, Alaska, with satellite transmitters and monitored their movements to their wintering areas in the northern Bering Sea for a 2-year period. We examined changes in winter fidelity in relation to home-range characteristics and ice. Characteristics of polynyas (areas with persistent open water during winter) varied substantially and likely had an effect on the size of winter ranges and movements within polynyas. Movements within polynyas were correlated with changes in weather that affected ice conditions. Ninety-five percent of individuals were found within their 95% utilization distribution (UD) of the previous year, and 90% were found within their 50% UD. Spatial distributions of winter locations between years changed for 32% of the individuals; however, we do not consider these subtle movements biologically significant. Although ice conditions varied between polynyas within and between years, the Common Eiders monitored in our study showed a high degree of fidelity to their winter areas. This observation is counterintuitive, given the requirement that resources are predictable for site fidelity to occur; however, ice may not have been severe enough to restrict access to other resources and, subsequently, force birds to move.

Contrary seasonal changes of rates of nutrient uptake, organ mass, and voluntary food intake in red deer (Cervus elaphus)

PubMed Central

Beiglböck, Christoph; Burmester, Marion; Guschlbauer, Maria; Lengauer, Astrid; Schröder, Bernd; Wilkens, Mirja; Breves, Gerhard

2015-01-01

Northern ungulates acclimatize to winter conditions with restricted food supply and unfavorable weather conditions by reducing energy expenditure and voluntary food intake. We investigated in a study on red deer whether rates of peptide and glucose transport in the small intestines are also reduced during winter as part of the thrifty phenotype of winter-acclimatized animals, or whether transport rates are increased during winter in order to exploit poor forage more efficiently. Our results support the latter hypothesis. We found in a feeding experiment that total energy intake was considerably lower during winter despite ad libitum feeding. Together with reduced food intake, mass of visceral organs was significantly lower and body fat reserves were used as metabolic fuel in addition to food. However, efficacy of nutrient absorption seemed to be increased simultaneously. Extraction of crude protein from forage was higher in winter animals, at any level of crude protein intake, as indicated by the lower concentration of crude protein in feces. In line with these in vivo results, Ussing chamber experiments revealed greater electrogenic responses to both peptides and glucose in the small intestines of winter-acclimatized animals, and peptide uptake into jejunal brush-border membrane vesicles was increased. We conclude that reduced appetite of red deer during winter avoids energy expenditure for unproductive search of scarcely available food and further renders the energetically costly maintenance of a large gut and visceral organs unnecessary. Nevertheless, extraction of nutrients from forage is more efficient in the winter to attenuate an inevitably negative energy balance. PMID:26017492

Impact of Spatial Soil and Climate Input Data Aggregation on Regional Yield Simulations

PubMed Central

Hoffmann, Holger; Zhao, Gang; Asseng, Senthold; Bindi, Marco; Biernath, Christian; Constantin, Julie; Coucheney, Elsa; Dechow, Rene; Doro, Luca; Eckersten, Henrik; Gaiser, Thomas; Grosz, Balázs; Heinlein, Florian; Kassie, Belay T.; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Klein, Christian; Kuhnert, Matthias; Lewan, Elisabet; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Priesack, Eckart; Raynal, Helene; Roggero, Pier P.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Siebert, Stefan; Specka, Xenia; Tao, Fulu; Teixeira, Edmar; Trombi, Giacomo; Wallach, Daniel; Weihermüller, Lutz; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Ewert, Frank

2016-01-01

We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations. PMID:27055028

Impact of Spatial Soil and Climate Input Data Aggregation on Regional Yield Simulations.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Holger; Zhao, Gang; Asseng, Senthold; Bindi, Marco; Biernath, Christian; Constantin, Julie; Coucheney, Elsa; Dechow, Rene; Doro, Luca; Eckersten, Henrik; Gaiser, Thomas; Grosz, Balázs; Heinlein, Florian; Kassie, Belay T; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Klein, Christian; Kuhnert, Matthias; Lewan, Elisabet; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Priesack, Eckart; Raynal, Helene; Roggero, Pier P; Rötter, Reimund P; Siebert, Stefan; Specka, Xenia; Tao, Fulu; Teixeira, Edmar; Trombi, Giacomo; Wallach, Daniel; Weihermüller, Lutz; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Ewert, Frank

2016-01-01

We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations.

Simulation Network for Test and Evaluation of Defense Systems. Phase I. Survey of DoD Testbed Requirements,

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-05-15

Interconnection (ISO 051) is the model used as a guide for this introduction to network protocols [30] T. Utsumi, " GLOSAS Project (GLObal Systems...Analysis and Simulation)," Proceedings of the 1980 Winter Simulation * Conference, Orlando, Fl., December, 1980, pp. 165-217. GLOSAS Project proposes the

Winter habitat selection by caribou in relation to lichen abundance, wildfires, grazing, and landscape characteristics in northwest Alaska

Treesearch

Kyle Joly; F. Stuart III Chapin; David R. Klein

2010-01-01

Lichens are an important winter forage for large, migratory herds of caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) that can influence population dynamics through effects on body condition and in turn calf recruitment and survival. We investigated the vegetative and physiographic characteristics of winter range of the Western Arctic Herd in northwest Alaska, one...

Winter Weather Tips: Understanding Alerts and Staying Safe this Season | Poster

Cancer.gov

By Jenna Seiss and Kylie Tomlin, Guest Writers, and Ashley DeVine, Staff Writer Maryland residents face the possibility of dangerous winter weather each year—from icy conditions to frigid temperatures. You may be familiar with the different types of winter weather alerts issued by the National Weather Service (NWS), but do you know what each alert means?  

[The biotropic weather conditions and changing the clocks as the extraneous risk factors of weather-dependent exacerbations of chronic diseases].

PubMed

Bobrovnitskiĭ, I P; Badalov, N G; Uianaeva, A I; Tupitsina, Iu Iu; Iakovlev, M Iu; Maksimova, G A

2014-01-01

This paper reports the results of medico-meteorological investigations suggesting the influence of biotropic (unfavourabe) weather conditions characteristic of transient seasons in combination with the abolition of on the frequency of application for emergency medical aid. It was shown that the abolition of during the period from 2009 to 2013 resulted in a significant rise in the frequency of application for the emergency treatment of exacerbation of cardiovascular diseases. The sociological studies involving the responders of various social and age groups carried out parallel to the medical ones demonstrated that most of them (77%) considered the abolition of to be the main cause of the deteriorated of the sense of wellbeing and emphasized the necessity of winter time reversal.

Quantifying the risks of winter damage on overwintering crops under future climates: Will low-temperature damage be more likely in warmer climates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, G.; Weih, M.

2014-12-01

Autumn-sown crops act as winter cover crop, reducing soil erosion and nutrient leaching, while potentially providing higher yields than spring varieties in many environments. Nevertheless, overwintering crops are exposed for longer periods to the vagaries of weather conditions. Adverse winter conditions, in particular, may negatively affect the final yield, by reducing crop survival or its vigor. The net effect of the projected shifts in climate is unclear. On the one hand, warmer temperatures may reduce the frequency of low temperatures, thereby reducing damage risk. On the other hand, warmer temperatures, by reducing plant acclimation level and the amount and duration of snow cover, may increase the likelihood of damage. Thus, warmer climates may paradoxically result in more extensive low temperature damage and reduced viability for overwintering plants. The net effect of a shift in climate is explored by means of a parsimonious probabilistic model, based on a coupled description of air temperature, snow cover, and crop tolerable temperature. Exploiting an extensive dataset of winter wheat responses to low temperature exposure, the risk of winter damage occurrence is quantified under conditions typical of northern temperate latitudes. The full spectrum of variations expected with climate change is explored, quantifying the joint effects of alterations in temperature averages and their variability as well as shifts in precipitation. The key features affecting winter wheat vulnerability to low temperature damage under future climates are singled out.

Relating large-scale climate variability to local species abundance: ENSO forcing and shrimp in Breton Sound, Louisiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piazza, Bryan P.; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Keim, B.D.

2010-01-01

Climate creates environmental constraints (filters) that affect the abundance and distribution of species. In estuaries, these constraints often result from variability in water flow properties and environmental conditions (i.e. water flow, salinity, water temperature) and can have significant effects on the abundance and distribution of commercially important nekton species. We investigated links between large-scale climate variability and juvenile brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus aztecus abundance in Breton Sound estuary, Louisiana (USA). Our goals were to (1) determine if a teleconnection exists between local juvenile brown shrimp abundance and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and (2) relate that linkage to environmental constraints that may affect juvenile brown shrimp recruitment to, and survival in, the estuary. Our results identified a teleconnection between winter ENSO conditions and juvenile brown shrimp abundance in Breton Sound estuary the following spring. The physical connection results from the impact of ENSO on winter weather conditions in Breton Sound (air pressure, temperature, and precipitation). Juvenile brown shrimp abundance effects lagged ENSO by 3 mo: lower than average abundances of juvenile brown shrimp were caught in springs following winter El Niño events, and higher than average abundances of brown shrimp were caught in springs following La Niña winters. Salinity was the dominant ENSO-forced environmental filter for juvenile brown shrimp. Spring salinity was cumulatively forced by winter river discharge, winter wind forcing, and spring precipitation. Thus, predicting brown shrimp abundance requires incorporating climate variability into models.

Denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss during the 2015/2016 Arctic winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosrawi, Farahnaz; Kirner, Oliver; Sinnhuber, Björn-Martin; Johansson, Sören; Höpfner, Michael; Santee, Michelle L.; Froidevaux, Lucien; Ungermann, Jörn; Ruhnke, Roland; Woiwode, Wolfgang; Oelhaf, Hermann; Braesicke, Peter

2017-11-01

The 2015/2016 Arctic winter was one of the coldest stratospheric winters in recent years. A stable vortex formed by early December and the early winter was exceptionally cold. Cold pool temperatures dropped below the nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) existence temperature of about 195 K, thus allowing polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) to form. The low temperatures in the polar stratosphere persisted until early March, allowing chlorine activation and catalytic ozone destruction. Satellite observations indicate that sedimentation of PSC particles led to denitrification as well as dehydration of stratospheric layers. Model simulations of the 2015/2016 Arctic winter nudged toward European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis data were performed with the atmospheric chemistry-climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) for the Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate (POLSTRACC) campaign. POLSTRACC is a High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO) mission aimed at the investigation of the structure, composition and evolution of the Arctic upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The chemical and physical processes involved in Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion, transport and mixing processes in the UTLS at high latitudes, PSCs and cirrus clouds are investigated. In this study, an overview of the chemistry and dynamics of the 2015/2016 Arctic winter as simulated with EMAC is given. Further, chemical-dynamical processes such as denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss during the 2015/2016 Arctic winter are investigated. Comparisons to satellite observations by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS) as well as to airborne measurements with the Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) performed aboard HALO during the POLSTRACC campaign show that the EMAC simulations nudged toward ECMWF analysis generally agree well with observations. We derive a maximum polar stratospheric O3 loss of ˜ 2 ppmv or 117 DU in terms of column ozone in mid-March. The stratosphere was denitrified by about 4-8 ppbv HNO3 and dehydrated by about 0.6-1 ppmv H2O from the middle to the end of February. While ozone loss was quite strong, but not as strong as in 2010/2011, denitrification and dehydration were so far the strongest observed in the Arctic stratosphere in at least the past 10 years.

Impact of the spatial distribution of the atmospheric forcing on water mass formation in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

BéRanger, Karine; Drillet, Yann; Houssais, Marie-NoëLle; Testor, Pierre; Bourdallé-Badie, Romain; Alhammoud, Bahjat; Bozec, Alexandra; Mortier, Laurent; Bouruet-Aubertot, Pascale; CréPon, Michel

2010-12-01

The impact of the atmospheric forcing on the winter ocean convection in the Mediterranean Sea was studied with a high-resolution ocean general circulation model. The major areas of focus are the Levantine basin, the Aegean-Cretan Sea, the Adriatic Sea, and the Gulf of Lion. Two companion simulations differing by the horizontal resolution of the atmospheric forcing were compared. The first simulation (MED16-ERA40) was forced by air-sea fields from ERA40, which is the ECMWF reanalysis. The second simulation (MED16-ECMWF) was forced by the ECMWF-analyzed surface fields that have a horizontal resolution twice as high as those of ERA40. The analysis of the standard deviations of the atmospheric fields shows that increasing the resolution of the atmospheric forcing leads in all regions to a better channeling of the winds by mountains and to the generation of atmospheric mesoscale patterns. Comparing the companion ocean simulation results with available observations in the Adriatic Sea and in the Gulf of Lion shows that MED16-ECMWF is more realistic than MED16-ERA40. In the eastern Mediterranean, although deep water formation occurs in the two experiments, the depth reached by the convection is deeper in MED16-ECMWF. In the Gulf of Lion, deep water formation occurs only in MED16-ECMWF. This larger sensitivity of the western Mediterranean convection to the forcing resolution is investigated by running a set of sensitivity experiments to analyze the impact of different time-space resolutions of the forcing on the intense winter convection event in winter 1998-1999. The sensitivity to the forcing appears to be mainly related to the effect of wind channeling by the land orography, which can only be reproduced in atmospheric models of sufficient resolution. Thus, well-positioned patterns of enhanced wind stress and ocean surface heat loss are able to maintain a vigorous gyre circulation favoring efficient preconditioning of the area at the beginning of winter and to drive realistic buoyancy loss and mixing responsible for strong convection at the end of winter.

Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musselman, Keith N.; Molotch, Noah P.; Margulis, Steven A.

2017-12-01

In a warmer climate, the fraction of annual meltwater produced at high melt rates in mountainous areas is projected to decline due to a contraction of the snow-cover season, causing melt to occur earlier and under lower energy conditions. How snowmelt rates, including extreme events relevant to flood risk, may respond to a range of warming over a mountain front is poorly known. We present a model sensitivity study of snowmelt response to warming across a 3600 m elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, USA. A snow model was run for three distinct years and verified against extensive ground observations. To simulate the impact of climate warming on meltwater production, measured meteorological conditions were modified by +1 to +6 °C. The total annual snow water volume exhibited linear reductions (-10 % °C-1) consistent with previous studies. However, the sensitivity of snowmelt rates to successive degrees of warming varied nonlinearly with elevation. Middle elevations and years with more snowfall were prone to the largest reductions in snowmelt rates, with lesser changes simulated at higher elevations. Importantly, simulated warming causes extreme daily snowmelt (99th percentiles) to increase in spatial extent and intensity, and shift from spring to winter. The results offer insight into the sensitivity of mountain snow water resources and how the rate and timing of water availability may change in a warmer climate. The identification of future climate conditions that may increase extreme melt events is needed to address the climate resilience of regional flood control systems.

Seasonal adjustment of energy budget in a large wild mammal, the Przewalski horse (Equus ferus przewalskii) I. Energy intake.

PubMed

Kuntz, Regina; Kubalek, Christina; Ruf, Thomas; Tataruch, Frieda; Arnold, Walter

2006-11-01

Large ruminants respond to changing plant phenology during winter by decreasing voluntary food intake, increasing gut passage time and utilizing body fat reserves. It is uncertain, however, how other large mammals with a non-ruminant digestive physiology cope with winter forage conditions. Therefore, we investigated seasonality of energy intake in a large herbivorous wild mammal, the Przewalski horse (Equus ferus przewalskii). Throughout all seasons we used the n-alkane method to measure daily dry matter intake (DMI), diet composition and digestion, and determined an index of gut passage time in horses living under close to natural conditions. DMI correlated positively with its content of crude protein and nitrogen-free extract. Independent of these effects, DMI further varied seasonally with a peak in autumn and a nadir in late winter. Fluctuations of DMI corresponded to the annual change in body condition, which decreased during winter while energy reserves were depleted, and increased during the fattening period. Gut passage time varied in the course of the year and was longer during winter when the diet was high in crude fibre. Nevertheless, changes in gut passage time occurred rather independently of changes in forage composition and DMI, suggesting endogenous control for timely adaption of the digestive strategy to meet predictable changes in forage quality.

Decadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation: Role of internal and external drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maliniemi, V.; Asikainen, T.; Mursula, K.

2017-12-01

Northern Hemisphere winter circulation is known to be affected by both internal and external (solar-related) forcings. Earlier studies have shown ENSO and volcanic activity to produce negative and positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) type responses, respectively. In addition, recent studies have shown a positive NAO response related to both geomagnetic activity (proxy for solar wind driven particle precipitation) and sunspot activity (proxy for solar irradiance). These solar-related signals have been suggested to be due to the changes in the polar vortex. Here the relative role of these four internal and external drivers on wintertime circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is studied. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is used to study the driver responses for different stratospheric conditions. Moreover, the effects are separated for early (Dec/Jan) and late (Feb/Mar) winter. The global pattern of ENSO is very similar (negative NAO) otherwise, but in early winter and westerly QBO the pattern is changed in the Atlantic sector to a weakly positive NAO. The positive NAO pattern due to volcanic activity is more pronounced for westerly QBO in both early and late winter. The positive NAO pattern produced by geomagnetic activity is obtained during easterly QBO phase in both early and late winter. Sunspot related NAO response in late winter is also strongly modulated by the QBO phase. These results imply that the stratospheric conditions expressed by QBO significantly modulate the way the internal and external drivers affect the Northern Hemisphere winter climate.

Case study of developing an integrated water and nitrogen scheme for agricultural systems on the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Tao, F.; Luo, Y.; Ma, J.

2013-12-01

Appropriate irrigation and nitrogen fertilization, along with suitable crop management strategies, are essential prerequisites for optimum yields in agricultural systems. This research attempts to provide a scientific basis for sustainable agricultural production management for the North China Plain and other semi-arid regions. Based on a series of 72 treatments over 2003-2008, an optimized water and nitrogen scheme for winter wheat/summer maize cropping system was developed. Integrated systems incorporating 120 mm of water with 80 kg N ha-1 N fertilizer were used to simulate winter wheat yields in Hebei and 120 mm of water with 120 kg N ha-1 were used to simulate winter wheat yields in Shandong and Henan provinces in 2000-2007. Similarly, integrated treatments of 40 kg N ha-1 N fertilizer were used to simulate summer maize yields in Hebei, and 80 kg N ha-1 was used to simulate summer maize yields in Shandong and Henan provinces in 2000-2007. Under the optimized scheme, 341.74 107 mm ha-1 of water and 575.79 104 Mg of urea fertilizer could be saved per year under the wheat/maize rotation system. Despite slight drops in the yields of wheat and maize in some areas, water and fertilizer saving has tremendous long-term eco-environmental benefits.

Design and performance considerations of evaporative-pad, waste-heat greenhouses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olszewski, M.

1978-01-01

Rising fuel costs and limited fuel availability have forced greenhouse operators to seek alternative means of heating their greenhouses in an effort to reduce production costs and conserve energy. One such alternative uses power plant reject heat, which is contained in the condenser cooling water, and a bank of evaporative pads to provide winter heating. The design technique used to size the evaporative pad system to meet both summer cooling and winter heating demands is described. Additionally, a computational scheme that simulates the system performance is presented. This analytical model is used to determine the greenhouse operating conditions that maintainmore » the vegetation in its thermal comfort zone. The evaporative pad model uses the Merkel total heat approximation and an experimentally derived transfer coefficient. Energy balance considerations on the vegetation provide a means of viewing optimal vegetation growth in terms of greenhouse environmental factors. In general, the results indicate that the vegetation can be maintained within its thermal comfort zone if sufficient warm water is available to the pads and the air stream flow is properly adjusted.« less

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

PubMed

Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-10-01

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

East Asia winter climate changes under RCP scenarios in terms of East Asian winter monsoon indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, J. B.; Hong, J. Y.

2016-12-01

The changes in the winter climatology and variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) for the late 21st century (2070-2099) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are projected in terms of EAWM indices (EAWMIs). Firstly, the capability of the climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the boreal winter climatology and the interannual variability of the EAWM for the late 20th century (1971-2000) is examined. Nine of twenty-three climate models are selected based on the pattern correlations with observation and a multi-model ensemble is applied to the nine model data. Three of twelve EAWMIs that show the most significant temporal correlations between the observation and CMIP5 surface air temperatures are utilized. The ensemble CMIP5 is capable of reproducing the overall features of the EAWM in spite of some biases in the region. The negative correlations between the EAWMIs and boreal winter temperature are well reproduced and 3-5 years of the major interannual variation observed in this region are also well simulated according to power spectral analyses of the simulated indices. The regressed fields of sea level pressure, surface air temperature, 500-hPa geopotential height, and 300-hPa zonal wind are well established with pattern correlations above 0.83 between CMIP5 and observation data. The differences between RCPs and Historical indicate strong warming, which increases with latitude, ranging from 1°C to 5°C under RCP4.5 and from 3°C to 7°C under RCP8.5 in the East Asian region. The anomalous southerly winds generally become stronger, implying weaker EAWMs in both scenarios. These features are also identified with fields regressed onto the indices in RCPs. The future projections reveal that the interannual variability of the indices will be maintained with intensity similar to that of the present. AcknowledgmentsThis work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science & Technology Development (Project No. PJ012293)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea.

Simulation of an Extreme Off Season Rainy Event over Senegal Using WRF ARW Model: A focus on dynamic, thermodynamic processes and predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarr, A.

2016-12-01

This study investigates less known weather events, Off Season Rain affecting during boreal winter Western parts of Sahel region mainly, Senegal, Cape Verde and Mauritania. They are characterized by cloudy conditions at mid level, which can trigger light long lasting rains. In January 2002, an extreme case occurred from 09 to 11th producing unusual heavy rains, which had dramatic consequences on livestock and irrigated crops. The Weather and Research Forecast model (WRF ARW version 3.4) is used to simulate the event, which affected the western coast around the land/ocean interface and caused huge damages in Senegal and Mauritania. The model was able to reasonably simulate the event and its intensity 2 to 3 days in advance, demonstrating the usefulness of such a tools for early warning system (EWS), which could help mitigate the impacts. The location of the rain band was closer to the observed situation in higher resolution domains. The study showed keys dynamic and thermodynamic conditions associated with the event. Precipitable water (PW) evolution played a central role on the intensity of the event. The deep trough, associated with the disturbance, forced a northeast transport of moisture from the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the Ocean towards Senegal and Mauritania.

An optimized data fusion method and its application to improve lateral boundary conditions in winter for Pearl River Delta regional PM2.5 modeling, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Zhijiong; Hu, Yongtao; Zheng, Junyu; Zhai, Xinxin; Huang, Ran

2018-05-01

Lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) are essential for chemical transport models to simulate regional transport; however they often contain large uncertainties. This study proposes an optimized data fusion approach to reduce the bias of LBCs by fusing gridded model outputs, from which the daughter domain's LBCs are derived, with ground-level measurements. The optimized data fusion approach follows the framework of a previous interpolation-based fusion method but improves it by using a bias kriging method to correct the spatial bias in gridded model outputs. Cross-validation shows that the optimized approach better estimates fused fields in areas with a large number of observations compared to the previous interpolation-based method. The optimized approach was applied to correct LBCs of PM2.5 concentrations for simulations in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region as a case study. Evaluations show that the LBCs corrected by data fusion improve in-domain PM2.5 simulations in terms of the magnitude and temporal variance. Correlation increases by 0.13-0.18 and fractional bias (FB) decreases by approximately 3%-15%. This study demonstrates the feasibility of applying data fusion to improve regional air quality modeling.

Metabolomics analysis of 'Housui' Japanese pear flower buds during endodormancy reveals metabolic suppression by thermal fluctuation.

PubMed

Horikoshi, Humberto Mitio; Sekozawa, Yoshihiko; Kobayashi, Makoto; Saito, Kazuki; Kusano, Miyako; Sugaya, Sumiko

2018-05-01

Dormancy is a complex phenomenon that allows plants to survive the winter season. Studies of dormancy have recently attracted more attention due to the expansion of temperate fruit production in areas under mild winters and due to climate changes. This study aimed to identify and characterize the metabolic changes induced by chilling temperatures, as well as during thermal fluctuation conditions that simulate mild winter and/or climate change scenarios. To do this, we compared the metabolic profile of Japanese pear flower buds exposed to constant chilling at 6 °C and thermal fluctuations of 6 °C/18 °C (150 h/150 h) during endodormancy. We detected 91 metabolites by gas chromatography paired with time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC-TOF-MS) that could be classified into eight groups: amino acids, amino acid derivatives, organic acids, sugars and polyols, fatty acids and sterols, phenol lipids, phenylpropanoids, and other compounds. Metabolomics analysis revealed that the level of several amino acids decreased during endodormancy. Sugar and polyol levels increased during endodormancy during constant chilling and might be associated with chilling stress tolerance and providing an energy supply for resuming growth. In contrast, thermal fluctuations produced low levels of metabolites related to the pentose phosphate pathway, energy production, and tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle in flower buds, which may be associated with failed endodormancy release. This metabolic profile contributes to our understanding of the biological mechanism of dormancy during chilling accumulation and clarifies the metabolic changes during mild winters and future climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Secondary dormancy induction and release in Bromus tectorum seeds: The role of temperature, water potential and hydrothermal time

Treesearch

K. K. Hawkins; P. S. Allen; Susan Meyer

2017-01-01

Seeds of the winter annual Bromus tectorum lose primary dormancy in summer and are poised to germinate rapidly in the autumn. If rainfall is inadequate, seeds remain ungerminated and may enter secondary dormancy under winter conditions. We quantified conditions under which seeds enter secondary dormancy in the laboratory and field and also examined whether contrasting...

Covariability of Central America/Mexico winter precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Yutong; Zeng, Ning; Mariotti, Annarita; Wang, Hui; Kumar, Arun; Sánchez, René Lobato; Jha, Bhaskar

2018-06-01

In this study, the relationships between Central America/Mexico (CAM) winter precipitation and tropical Pacific/Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are examined based on 68-year (1948-2015) observations and 59-year (1957-2015) atmospheric model simulations forced by observed SSTs. The covariability of the winter precipitation and SSTs is quantified using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method with observational data. The first SVD mode relates out-of-phase precipitation anomalies in northern Mexico and Central America to the tropical Pacific El Niño/La Niña SST variation. The second mode links a decreasing trend in the precipitation over Central America to the warming of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic, as well as in the tropical western Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean. The first mode represents 67% of the covariance between the two fields, indicating a strong association between CAM winter precipitation and El Niño/La Niña, whereas the second mode represents 20% of the covariance. The two modes account for 32% of CAM winter precipitation variance, of which, 17% is related to the El Niño/La Niña SST and 15% is related to the SST warming trend. The atmospheric circulation patterns, including 500-hPa height and low-level winds obtained by linear regressions against the SVD SST time series, are dynamically consistent with the precipitation anomaly patterns. The model simulations driven by the observed SSTs suggest that these precipitation anomalies are likely a response to tropical SST forcing. It is also shown that there is significant potential predictability of CAM winter precipitation given tropical SST information.

Yearly simulation of a solar-aided R22-DEGDME absorption heat pump system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ileri, A.

1995-12-31

The performance of a solar-aided R22-DEGDME absorption heat pump system designed for 100 kW cooling capacity is investigated by a computer simulation using hourly data for Ankara. In summer the generator, and in winter the evaporator, receives solar energy while the remaining demands are met by auxiliary heaters. When needed, these boost the temperature of the water from the storage tank to the minimum allowable levels which are determined as 20{degree}C in winter and over 80{degree}C in summer. The system performance, judged by the fraction of the load supplied from solar energy, is affected mostly from the climate, source temperaturemore » limit, collector type and area but little from storage tank size, for the sizes and configuration under investigation. With 400 m{sup 2} of high efficiency collectors, the solar energy supplied 38% of the demand in winter and 91% of the demand in summer. 22 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.« less

The International Heat Stress Genotype Experiment for Modeling Wheat Response to Heat: Field Experiments and AgMIP-Wheat Multi-Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martre, Pierre; Reynolds, Matthew P.; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Alderman, Phillip D.; Cammarano, Davide; Maiorano, Andrea; Ruane, Alexander C.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Anothai, Jakarat;

Comparative and Combinative Study of Urban Heat island in Wuhan City with Remote Sensing and CFD Simulation

PubMed Central

Li, Kun; Yu, Zhuang

2008-01-01

Urban heat islands are one of the most critical urban environment heat problems. Landsat ETM+ satellite data were used to investigate the land surface temperature and underlying surface indices such as NDVI and NDBI. A comparative study of the urban heat environment at different scales, times and locations was done to verify the heat island characteristics. Since remote sensing technology has limitations for dynamic flow analysis in the study of urban spaces, a CFD simulation was used to validate the improvement of the heat environment in a city by means of wind. CFD technology has its own shortcomings in parameter setting and verification, while RS technology is helpful to remedy this. The city of Wuhan and its climatological condition of being hot in summer and cold in winter were chosen to verify the comparative and combinative application of RS with CFD in studying the urban heat island. PMID:27873893

Simulation of a Severe Autumn/Winter Drought in Eastern China by Regional Atmospheric Modeling System(RAMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Chunchun; Ma, Yaoming

2016-04-01

Compared with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-interim) Reanalysis data and Global Summary Of Day (GSOD) observation data, the outcomes from RAMS of the 2008/2009 severe autumn/winter drought in eastern china are analyzed in this study. The reanalysis data showed that most parts of north China are controlled by northwest wind which was accompanied by cold air, the warm and moist air from South Sea is so weak to meet with cold air, therefore forming a circulation which is unfavorable for the formation of precipitation over Eastern China. RAMS performs very well over the simulation of this atmospheric circulation, so do the rainfall and air temperature over China and where the drought occurred. Meanwhile, the simulation of the time series of precipitation and temperature behaves excellent, the square of correlation coefficient between simulations and observations reached above 0.8. Although the performance of RAMS on this drought simulation is fairly accurate, there is amount of research work to be continued to complete a more realistic simulation. KEY WORDS RAMS; severe drought; numerical simulation; atmospheric circulation; precipitation and air temperature

Stationary eddies in the Mars general circulation as simulated by the NASA-Ames GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, J. R.; Pollack, J. B.; Haberle, Robert M.

1993-01-01

Quasistationary eddies are prominent in a large set of simulations of the Mars general circulation performed with the NASA-Ames GCM. Various spacecraft observations have at least hinted at the existence of such eddies in the Mars atmosphere. The GCM stationary eddies appear to be forced primarily by the large Mars topography, and (to a much lesser degree) by spatial variations in the surface albedo and thermal inertia. The stationary eddy circulations exhibit largest amplitudes at high altitudes (above 30-40 km) in the winter extratropical regions. In these regions they are of planetary scale, characterized largely by zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2. Southern Hemisphere winter appears to be dominated by a very strong wave 1 pattern, with both waves 1 and 2 being prominent in the Northern Hemisphere winter regime. This difference seems to be basically understandable in terms of differences in the topography in the two hemispheres. The stationary eddies in the northern winter extratropics are found to increase in amplitude with dust loading. This behavior appears to be at least partly associated with changes in the structure of the zonal-mean flow that favor a greater response to wave 1 topographic forcing. There are also strong stationary eddy circulations in the tropics and in the summer hemisphere. The eddies in the summer subtropics and extratropics arc substantially stronger in southern summer than in northern summer. The summer hemisphere stationary circulations are relatively shallow and are characterized by smaller zonal scales than those in the winter extratropics.

From Cyclone Tracks to the Costs of European Winter Storms: A Probabilistic Loss Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orwig, K.; Renggli, D.; Corti, T.; Reese, S.; Wueest, M.; Viktor, E.; Zimmerli, P.

2014-12-01

European winter storms cause billions of dollars of insured losses every year. Therefore, it is essential to understand potential impacts of future events, and the role reinsurance can play to mitigate the losses. The authors will present an overview on natural catastrophe risk assessment modeling in the reinsurance industry, and the development of a new innovative approach for modeling the risk associated with European winter storms.The new innovative approach includes the development of physically meaningful probabilistic (i.e. simulated) events for European winter storm loss assessment. The meteorological hazard component of the new model is based on cyclone and windstorm tracks identified in the 20thCentury Reanalysis data. The knowledge of the evolution of winter storms both in time and space allows the physically meaningful perturbation of historical event properties (e.g. track, intensity, etc.). The perturbation includes a random element but also takes the local climatology and the evolution of the historical event into account.The low-resolution wind footprints taken from the 20thCentury Reanalysis are processed by a statistical-dynamical downscaling to generate high-resolution footprints for both the simulated and historical events. Downscaling transfer functions are generated using ENSEMBLES regional climate model data. The result is a set of reliable probabilistic events representing thousands of years. The event set is then combined with country and site-specific vulnerability functions and detailed market- or client-specific information to compute annual expected losses.

Benchmark levels for the consumptive water footprint of crop production for different environmental conditions: a case study for winter wheat in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.

2016-11-01

Meeting growing food demands while simultaneously shrinking the water footprint (WF) of agricultural production is one of the greatest societal challenges. Benchmarks for the WF of crop production can serve as a reference and be helpful in setting WF reduction targets. The consumptive WF of crops, the consumption of rainwater stored in the soil (green WF), and the consumption of irrigation water (blue WF) over the crop growing period varies spatially and temporally depending on environmental factors like climate and soil. The study explores which environmental factors should be distinguished when determining benchmark levels for the consumptive WF of crops. Hereto we determine benchmark levels for the consumptive WF of winter wheat production in China for all separate years in the period 1961-2008, for rain-fed vs. irrigated croplands, for wet vs. dry years, for warm vs. cold years, for four different soil classes, and for two different climate zones. We simulate consumptive WFs of winter wheat production with the crop water productivity model AquaCrop at a 5 by 5 arcmin resolution, accounting for water stress only. The results show that (i) benchmark levels determined for individual years for the country as a whole remain within a range of ±20 % around long-term mean levels over 1961-2008, (ii) the WF benchmarks for irrigated winter wheat are 8-10 % larger than those for rain-fed winter wheat, (iii) WF benchmarks for wet years are 1-3 % smaller than for dry years, (iv) WF benchmarks for warm years are 7-8 % smaller than for cold years, (v) WF benchmarks differ by about 10-12 % across different soil texture classes, and (vi) WF benchmarks for the humid zone are 26-31 % smaller than for the arid zone, which has relatively higher reference evapotranspiration in general and lower yields in rain-fed fields. We conclude that when determining benchmark levels for the consumptive WF of a crop, it is useful to primarily distinguish between different climate zones. If actual consumptive WFs of winter wheat throughout China were reduced to the benchmark levels set by the best 25 % of Chinese winter wheat production (1224 m3 t-1 for arid areas and 841 m3 t-1 for humid areas), the water saving in an average year would be 53 % of the current water consumption at winter wheat fields in China. The majority of the yield increase and associated improvement in water productivity can be achieved in southern China.

Winter precipitation characteristics in western US related to atmospheric river landfalls: observations and model evaluations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Ferraro, R. D.; Case, J. L.; Iguchi, T.; Kemp, E.; Putman, W.; Wang, W.; Wu, D.; Tian, B.

2018-01-01

Winter precipitation (PR) characteristics in western United States (WUS) related to atmospheric river (AR) landfalls are examined using the observation-based PRISM data. The observed AR-related precipitation characteristics are in turn used to evaluate model precipitation data from the NASA MERRA2 reanalysis and from seven dynamical downscaling simulations driven by the MERRA2. Multiple metrics including mean bias, Taylor diagram, and two skill scores are used to measure model performance for three climatological sub-regions in WUS, Pacific Northwest (PNW), Pacific Southwest (PSW) and Great Basin (GB). All model data well represent the winter-mean PR with spatial pattern correlations of 0.8 or higher with PRISM for the three sub-regions. Higher spatial resolutions and/or the use of spectral nudging generally yield higher skill scores in simulating the geographical distribution of PR for the entire winter. The PRISM data shows that the AR-related fraction of winter PR and associated daily PR PDFs in each region vary strongly for landfall locations; AR landfalls in the northern WUS coast (NC) affect mostly PNW while those in the southern WUS coast (SC) affect both PSW and GB. NC (SC) landfalls increase the frequency of heavy PR in PNW (PSW and GB) but reduce it in PSW (PNW). All model data reasonably represent these observed variations in the AR-related winter PR fractions and the daily PR PDFs according to AR landfall locations. However, unlike for the entire winter period, no systematic effects of resolution and/or spectral nudging are identified in these AR-related PR characteristics. Dynamical downscaling in this study generally yield positive added values to the MERRA2 PR in the AR-related PR fraction for most sub-regions and landfall locations, most noticeably for PSW by NU-WRF. The downscaling also generate positive added value in p95 for PNW, but negative values for PSW and GB due to overestimation of heavy precipitation events.

Can Regional Climate Models Improve Warm Season Forecasts in the North American Monsoon Region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, F.; Castro, C. L.

2009-12-01

The goal of this work is to improve warm season forecasts in the North American Monsoon Region. To do this, we are dynamically downscaling warm season CFS (Climate Forecast System) reforecasts from 1982-2005 for the contiguous U.S. using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model. CFS is the global coupled ocean-atmosphere model used by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a branch of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to provide official U.S. seasonal climate forecasts. Recently, NCEP has produced a comprehensive long-term retrospective ensemble CFS reforecasts for the years 1980-2005. These reforecasts show that CFS model 1) has an ability to forecast tropical Pacific SSTs and large-scale teleconnection patterns, at least as evaluated for the winter season; 2) has greater skill in forecasting winter than summer climate; and 3) demonstrates an increase in skill when a greater number of ensembles members are used. The decrease in CFS skill during the warm season is due to the fact that the physical mechanisms of rainfall at this time are more related to mesoscale processes, such as the diurnal cycle of convection, low-level moisture transport, propagation and organization of convection, and surface moisture recycling. In general, these are poorly represented in global atmospheric models. Preliminary simulations for years with extreme summer climate conditions in the western and central U.S. (specifically 1988 and 1993) show that CFS-WRF simulations can provide a more realistic representation of convective rainfall processes. Thus a RCM can potentially add significant value in climate forecasting of the warm season provided the downscaling methodology incorporates the following: 1) spectral nudging to preserve the variability in the large scale circulation while still permitting the development of smaller-scale variability in the RCM; and 2) use of realistic soil moisture initial condition, in this case provided by the North American Regional Reanalysis. With these conditions, downscaled CFS-WRF reforecast simulations can produce realistic continental-scale patterns of warm season precipitation. This includes a reasonable representation of the North American monsoon in the southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico, which is notoriously difficult to represent in a global atmospheric model. We anticipate that this research will help lead the way toward substantially improved real time operational forecasts of North American summer climate with a RCM.

DAILY SIMULATIONS OF OZONE AND FINE PARTICULATES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES: MODEL PERFORMANCE, SEASONAL DIFFERENCES, AND THE EFFECT OF MODEL UPDATES

EPA Science Inventory

This poster presents analysis of near-realtime air quality simulations over New York State for two summer and one winter season. Simulations were performed as a pilot study between the NOAA, EPA, and NYSDEC, utilizing resources from the national operational NOAA/EPA air quality f...

Combining Simulated Patients and Simulators: Pilot Study of Hybrid Simulation in Teaching Cardiac Auscultation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friederichs, Hendrik; Weissenstein, Anne; Ligges, Sandra; Möller, David; Becker, Jan C.; Marschall, Bernhard

2014-01-01

Auscultation torsos are widely used to teach position-dependent heart sounds and murmurs. To provide a more realistic teaching experience, both whole body auscultation mannequins and torsos have been used in clinical examination skills training at the Medical Faculty of the University of Muenster since the winter term of 2008-2009. This training…

Winter severity and wolf predation on a formerly wolf-free elk herd

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L. David; Smith, Douglas W.; Murphy, Kerry M.; MacNulty, Daniel R.

2001-01-01

We studied wolf (Canis lupus) predation on elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park from 17 March to 15 April 1997 (severe winter conditions) and from 2 to 31 March 1998 (mild winter conditions) 2-3 years after wolves were reintroduced to the park. Elk composed 91 % of 117 kills. Data comparisons for 1997 versus 1998 were: hunting success rate, 26% versus 15%; kill rate, 17.1 kg/wolf/day versus 6.1; percent of kill consumed in first day, 7 versus 86; percent femur marrow fat of adult kills, 27 versus 70; calf:adult ratios of kills, 2:33 versus 17:23; sex ratio of kills, 14M:19F versus 17M:6F; mean age of elk killed, males 6.1 years, females 15.2 versus males, 4.8, females 13.0. Winter severity influenced the wolf-elk relationship more than the naivete of the elk herd to predation by wolves.

Simulation modeling to understand how selective foraging by beaver can drive the structure and function of a willow community

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peinetti, H.R.; Baker, B.W.; Coughenour, M.B.

2009-01-01

Beaver-willow (Castor-Salix) communities are a unique and vital component of healthy wetlands throughout the Holarctic region. Beaver selectively forage willow to provide fresh food, stored winter food, and construction material. The effects of this complex foraging behavior on the structure and function of willow communities is poorly understood. Simulation modeling may help ecologists understand these complex interactions. In this study, a modified version of the SAVANNA ecosystem model was developed to better understand how beaver foraging affects the structure and function of a willow community in a simulated riparian ecosystem in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado (RMNP). The model represents willow in terms of plant and stem dynamics and beaver foraging in terms of the quantity and quality of stems cut to meet the energetic and life history requirements of beaver. Given a site where all stems were equally available, the model suggested a simulated beaver family of 2 adults, 2 yearlings, and 2 kits required a minimum of 4 ha of willow (containing about10 stems m-2) to persist in a steady-state condition. Beaver created a willow community where the annual net primary productivity (ANPP) was 2 times higher and plant architecture was more diverse than the willow community without beaver. Beaver foraging created a plant architecture dominated by medium size willow plants, which likely explains how beaver can increase ANPP. Long-term simulations suggested that woody biomass stabilized at similar values even though availability differed greatly at initial condition. Simulations also suggested that willow ANPP increased across a range of beaver densities until beaver became food limited. Thus, selective foraging by beaver increased productivity, decreased biomass, and increased structural heterogeneity in a simulated willow community.

Insights in time dependent cross compartment sensitivities from ensemble simulations with the fully coupled subsurface-land surface-atmosphere model TerrSysMP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schalge, Bernd; Rihani, Jehan; Haese, Barbara; Baroni, Gabriele; Erdal, Daniel; Haefliger, Vincent; Lange, Natascha; Neuweiler, Insa; Hendricks-Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Geppert, Gernot; Ament, Felix; Kollet, Stefan; Cirpka, Olaf; Saavedra, Pablo; Han, Xujun; Attinger, Sabine; Kunstmann, Harald; Vereecken, Harry; Simmer, Clemens

2017-04-01

Currently, an integrated approach to simulating the earth system is evolving where several compartment models are coupled to achieve the best possible physically consistent representation. We used the model TerrSysMP, which fully couples subsurface, land surface and atmosphere, in a synthetic study that mimicked the Neckar catchment in Southern Germany. A virtual reality run at a high resolution of 400m for the land surface and subsurface and 1.1km for the atmosphere was made. Ensemble runs at a lower resolution (800m for the land surface and subsurface) were also made. The ensemble was generated by varying soil and vegetation parameters and lateral atmospheric forcing among the different ensemble members in a systematic way. It was found that the ensemble runs deviated for some variables and some time periods largely from the virtual reality reference run (the reference run was not covered by the ensemble), which could be related to the different model resolutions. This was for example the case for river discharge in the summer. We also analyzed the spread of model states as function of time and found clear relations between the spread and the time of the year and weather conditions. For example, the ensemble spread of latent heat flux related to uncertain soil parameters was larger under dry soil conditions than under wet soil conditions. Another example is that the ensemble spread of atmospheric states was more influenced by uncertain soil and vegetation parameters under conditions of low air pressure gradients (in summer) than under conditions with larger air pressure gradients in winter. The analysis of the ensemble of fully coupled model simulations provided valuable insights in the dynamics of land-atmosphere feedbacks which we will further highlight in the presentation.

Simulation of Long Lived Tracers Using an Improved Empirically-Based Two-Dimensional Model Transport Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleming, Eric L.; Jackman, Charles H.; Stolarski, Richard S.; Considine, David B.

1998-01-01

We have developed a new empirically-based transport algorithm for use in our GSFC two-dimensional transport and chemistry assessment model. The new algorithm contains planetary wave statistics, and parameterizations to account for the effects due to gravity waves and equatorial Kelvin waves. We will present an overview of the new algorithm, and show various model-data comparisons of long-lived tracers as part of the model validation. We will also show how the new algorithm gives substantially better agreement with observations compared to our previous model transport. The new model captures much of the qualitative structure and seasonal variability observed methane, water vapor, and total ozone. These include: isolation of the tropics and winter polar vortex, the well mixed surf-zone region of the winter sub-tropics and mid-latitudes, and the propagation of seasonal signals in the tropical lower stratosphere. Model simulations of carbon-14 and strontium-90 compare fairly well with observations in reproducing the peak in mixing ratio at 20-25 km, and the decrease with altitude in mixing ratio above 25 km. We also ran time dependent simulations of SF6 from which the model mean age of air values were derived. The oldest air (5.5 to 6 years) occurred in the high latitude upper stratosphere during fall and early winter of both hemispheres, and in the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere during late winter and early spring. The latitudinal gradient of the mean ages also compare well with ER-2 aircraft observations in the lower stratosphere.

The subtle role of climate change on population genetic structure in Canada lynx.

PubMed

Row, Jeffrey R; Wilson, Paul J; Gomez, Celine; Koen, Erin L; Bowman, Jeff; Thornton, Daniel; Murray, Dennis L

2014-07-01

Anthropogenically driven climatic change is expected to reshape global patterns of species distribution and abundance. Given recent links between genetic variation and environmental patterns, climate change may similarly impact genetic population structure, but we lack information on the spatial and mechanistic underpinnings of genetic-climate associations. Here, we show that current genetic variability of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) is strongly correlated with a winter climate gradient (i.e. increasing snow depth and winter precipitation from west-to-east) across the Pacific-North American (PNO) to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climatic systems. This relationship was stronger than isolation by distance and not explained by landscape variables or changes in abundance. Thus, these patterns suggest that individuals restricted dispersal across the climate boundary, likely in the absence of changes in habitat quality. We propose habitat imprinting on snow conditions as one possible explanation for this unusual phenomenon. Coupling historical climate data with future projections, we also found increasingly diverging snow conditions between the two climate systems. Based on genetic simulations using projected climate data (2041-2070), we predicted that this divergence could lead to a threefold increase in genetic differentiation, potentially leading to isolated east-west populations of lynx in North America. Our results imply that subtle genetic structure can be governed by current climate and that substantive genetic differentiation and related ecological divergence may arise from changing climate patterns. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Asynchronous vegetation phenology enhances winter body condition of a large mobile herbivore.

PubMed

Searle, Kate R; Rice, Mindy B; Anderson, Charles R; Bishop, Chad; Hobbs, N T

2015-10-01

Understanding how spatial and temporal heterogeneity influence ecological processes forms a central challenge in ecology. Individual responses to heterogeneity shape population dynamics, therefore understanding these responses is central to sustainable population management. Emerging evidence has shown that herbivores track heterogeneity in nutritional quality of vegetation by responding to phenological differences in plants. We quantified the benefits mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) accrue from accessing habitats with asynchronous plant phenology in northwest Colorado over 3 years. Our analysis examined both the direct physiological and indirect environmental effects of weather and vegetation phenology on mule deer winter body condition. We identified several important effects of annual weather patterns and topographical variables on vegetation phenology in the home ranges of mule deer. Crucially, temporal patterns of vegetation phenology were linked with differences in body condition, with deer tending to show poorer body condition in areas with less asynchronous vegetation green-up and later vegetation onset. The direct physiological effect of previous winter precipitation on mule deer body condition was much less important than the indirect effect mediated by vegetation phenology. Additionally, the influence of vegetation phenology on body fat was much stronger than that of overall vegetation productivity. In summary, changing annual weather patterns, particularly in relation to seasonal precipitation, have the potential to alter body condition of this important ungulate species during the critical winter period. This finding highlights the importance of maintaining large contiguous areas of spatially and temporally variable resources to allow animals to compensate behaviourally for changing climate-driven resource patterns.

Modelling of temperature effects on removal efficiency and dissolved oxygen concentrations in stormwater ponds.

PubMed

German, J; Svensson, G; Gustafsson, L G; Vikström, M

2003-01-01

The performance of stormwater ponds, operated under winter conditions, was modelled using the commercial software Mike21 and MOUSE. Direct and indirect effects of changing temperature were investigated. The most important effect of winter conditions is the changed hydrology, characterised by long periods with no runoff followed by snowmelt events with large runoff volumes during several days. This gives lower removal efficiencies than during a period with the same precipitation but without winter conditions. For the concentration of dissolved oxygen, wind is an important factor. Consequently the most important effect of an ice cover on the pond is that it prevents the oxygenation effects of the wind. The direct temperature effects on the removal processes are negligible compared to the indirect effects in changed hydrology and forming of ice cover.

An assessment of wind energy potential in Iberia under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Santos, João A.; Rochinha, Carlos; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2015-04-01

Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent-past (1961-2000) and future (2041-2070) climates. For recent-past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent-past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day-1), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucía reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (<15% of mean output), but exacerbated in winter (40%). Climate change projections show significant decreases over most of Iberia (<2 MWh day-1). The strong enhancement of autumn potentials in Southern Andalucía is noteworthy (>2 MWh day-1). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn-spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections. Santos, J.A.; Rochinha, C.; Liberato, M.L.R.; Reyers, M.; Pinto, J.G. (2015) Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia. Renewable Energy, 75, 1: 68-80. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.026 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Mass dynamics of wintering Pacific Black Brant: Body, adipose tissue, organ, and muscle masses vary with location

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mason, D.D.; Barboza, P.S.; Ward, D.H.

2007-01-01

We compared body size and mass of the whole body, organs, adipose tissue, and muscles of adult Pacific Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans (Lawrence, 1846)) collected concurrently in Alaska and Baja California during the fall, winter, and spring of 2002–2003. Head and tarsal lengths of males were similar between sites and slightly larger for females in Alaska than in Baja California. Brant appear to operate under similar physiological bounds, but patterns of nutrient allocation differ between sites. Birds wintering in Alaska lost similar amounts of adipose tissue during early winter as birds in Baja California gained during late winter before migration. Masses of the body, adipose tissue, and flight muscles during mid-winter were similar between sites. Seasonal adipose tissue deposition may, therefore, equally favor winter residency or long-distance migration. Gonad and liver masses increased in late winter for birds in Alaska but not for those in Baja California, suggesting birds wintering in Baja may delay reproductive development in favor of allocating reserves needed for migration. Phenotypic flexibility allows Brant to use widely divergent wintering sites. The wintering location of Brant likely depends more upon changes in environmental conditions and food availability, than upon physiological differences between the two wintering populations.

Global environmental effects of impact-generated aerosols: Results from a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Covey, C.; Ghan, S. J.; Weissman, Paul R.

1988-01-01

Cooling and darkening at Earth's surface are expected to result from the interception of sunlight by the high altitude worldwide dust cloud generated by impact of a large asteroid or comet, according to the one-dimensional radioactive-convective atmospheric model (RCM) of Pollack et al. An analogous three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM) simulation obtains the same basic result as the RCM but there are important differences in detail. In the GCM simulation the heat capacity of the oceans, not included in the RCM, substantially mitigates land surface cooling. On the other hand, the GCM's low heat capacity surface allows surface temperatures to drop much more rapidly than reported by Pollack et al. These two differences between RCM and GCM simulations were noted previously in studies of nuclear winter; GCM results for comet/asteroid winter, however, are much more severe than for nuclear winter because the assumed aerosol amount is large enough to intercept all sunlight falling on Earth. In the simulation the global average of land surface temperature drops to the freezing point in just 4.5 days, one-tenth the time required in the Pollack et al. simulation. In addition to the standard case of Pollack et al., which represents the collision of a 10-km diameter asteroid with Earth, additional scenarios are considered ranging from the statistically more frequent impacts of smaller asteroids to the collision of Halley's comet with Earth. In the latter case the kinetic energy of impact is extremely large due to the head-on collision resulting from Halley's retrograde orbit.

Modeling the spatial and temporal population dynamics of the copepod Centropages typicus in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea during the year 2001 using a 3D ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlotti, F.; Eisenhauer, L.; Campbell, R.; Diaz, F.

2014-07-01

The spatio-temporal dynamics of a simulated Centropages typicus (Kröyer) population during the year 2001 at the regional scale of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea are addressed using a 3D coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The setup of the coupled biological model comprises a pelagic plankton ecosystem model and a stage-structured population model forced by the 3D velocity and temperature fields provided by an eddy-resolving regional circulation model. The population model for C. typicus (C. t. below) represents demographic processes through five groups of developmental stages, which depend on underlying individual growth and development processes and are forced by both biotic (prey and predator fields) and abiotic (temperature, advection) factors from the coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The objective is to characterize C. t. ontogenic habitats driven by physical and trophic processes. The annual dynamics are presented for two of the main oceanographic stations in the Gulf of Lions, which are representative of shelf and open sea conditions, while the spatial distributions over the whole area are presented for three dates during the year, in early and late spring and in winter. The simulated spatial patterns of C. t. developmental stages are closely related to mesoscale hydrodynamic features and circulation patterns. The seasonal and spatial distributions on the Gulf of Lions shelf depend on the seasonal interplay between the Rhône river plume, the mesoscale eddies on the shelf and the Northern Current acting as either as a dynamic barrier between the shelf and the open sea or allowing cross-shelf exchanges. In the central gyre of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, the patchiness of plankton is tightly linked to mesoscale frontal systems, surface eddies and filaments and deep gradients. Due to its flexibility in terms of its diet, C. t. succeeds in maintaining its population in both coastal and offshore areas year round. The simulations suggest that the winte-spring food conditions are more favorable on the shelf for C. t., whereas in late summer and fall, the offshore depth-integrated food biomasses represent a larger resource for C. t., particularly when mesoscale structures and vertical discontinuities increase food patchiness. The development and reproduction of C. t. depend on the prey field within the mesoscale structures that induce a contrasting spatial distribution of successive developmental stages on a given observation date. In late fall and winter, the results of the model suggest the existence of three refuge areas where the population maintains winter generations near the coast and within the Rhone River plume, or offshore within canyons within the shelf break, or in the frontal system related to the Northern Current. The simulated spatial and temporal distributions as well as the life cycle and physiological features of C. t. are discussed in light of recent reviews on the dynamics of C. t. in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea.

Latitudinal variation in diapause duration and post-winter development in two pierid butterflies in relation to phenological specialization.

PubMed

Posledovich, Diana; Toftegaard, Tenna; Wiklund, Christer; Ehrlén, Johan; Gotthard, Karl

2015-01-01

Diapause plays a central role in insect life cycles by allowing survival during adverse seasonal conditions as well as synchronizing life cycles with the period of mate and food availability. Seasonal timing is expected to be particularly important for species that are dependent on resources available during a short time window-so-called phenological specialists-and latitudinal clines in seasonality are expected to favor local adaptation in phenological timing. However, to what degree latitudinal variation in diapause dynamics and post-winter development due to such local adaptation is influenced by the degree of phenological specialization is not well known. We experimentally studied two pierid butterfly species and found that the phenological specialist Anthocharis cardamines had shorter diapause duration than the phenological generalist Pieris napi along a latitudinal gradient in Sweden. Moreover, diapause duration increased with latitude in P. napi but not in A. cardamines. Sensitivity of the two species to winter thermal conditions also differed; additional cold temperature during the winter period shortened diapause duration for P. napi pupae but not for A. cardamines pupae. In both species, post-winter pupal development was faster after longer periods of cold conditions, and more southern populations developed faster than northern populations. Post-winter development was also invariably faster at higher temperatures in both species. We argue that the observed differences in diapause dynamics between the two species might be explained by the difference in phenological specialization that influences the costs of breaking diapause too early in the season.

Simulation of High-Latitude Hydrological Processes in the Torne-Kalix Basin: PILPS Phase 2(e). 3; Equivalent Model Representation and Sensitivity Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowling, Laura C.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Nijssen, Bart; Polcher, Jan; Koster, Randal D.; Lohmann, Dag; Houser, Paul R. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Project for Intercomparison of Land Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) Phase 2(e) showed that in cold regions the annual runoff production in Land Surface Schemes (LSSs) is closely related to the maximum snow accumulation, which in turn is controlled in large part by winter sublimation. To help further explain the relationship between snow cover, turbulent exchanges and runoff production, a simple equivalent model-(SEM) was devised to reproduce the seasonal and annual fluxes simulated by 13 LSSs that participated in PILPS Phase 2(e). The design of the SEM relates the annual partitioning of precipitation and energy in the LSSs to three primary parameters: snow albedo, effective aerodynamic resistance and evaporation efficiency. Isolation of each of the parameters showed that the annual runoff production was most sensitive to the aerodynamic resistance. The SEM was somewhat successful in reproducing the observed LSS response to a decrease in shortwave radiation and changes in wind speed forcings. SEM parameters derived from the reduced shortwave forcings suggested that increased winter stability suppressed turbulent heat fluxes over snow. Because winter sensible heat fluxes were largely negative, reductions in winter shortwave radiation imply an increase in annual average sensible heat.

Estimating winter wheat phenological parameters: Implications for crop modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Crop parameters, such as the timing of developmental events, are critical for accurate simulation results in crop simulation models, yet uncertainty often exists in determining the parameters. Factors contributing to the uncertainty include: a) sources of variation within a plant (i.e., within diffe...

Overwintering Biology of Culex (Diptera: Culicidae) Mosquitoes in the Sacramento Valley of California

PubMed Central

NELMS, BRITTANY M.; MACEDO, PAULA A.; KOTHERA, LINDA; SAVAGE, HARRY M.; REISEN, WILLIAM K.

2014-01-01

At temperate latitudes, Culex (Diptera: Culicidae) mosquitoes typically overwinter as adult females in reproductive arrest and also may serve as reservoir hosts for arboviruses when cold temperatures arrest viral replication. To evaluate their role in the persistence of West Nile virus (WNV) in the Sacramento Valley of California, the induction and termination of diapause were investigated for members of the Culex pipiens (L.) complex, Culex tarsalis Coquillett, and Culex stigmatosoma Dyar under field, seminatural, and experimental conditions. All Culex spp. remained vagile throughout winter, enabling the collection of 3,174 females and 1,706 males from diverse habitats during the winters of 2010–2012. Overwintering strategies included both quiescence and diapause. In addition, Cx. pipiens form molestus Forskäl females remained reproductively active in both underground and aboveground habitats. Some blood-fed, gravid, and parous Cx. tarsalis and Cx. pipiens complex females were collected throughout the winter period. Under both field and experimental conditions, Cx. tarsalis and Cx. stigmatosoma females exposed to autumnal conditions arrested primary follicular maturation at previtellogenic stage I, with primary to secondary follicular ratios <1.5 (indicative of a hormonally induced diapause). In contrast, most Cx. pipiens complex females did not enter reproductive diapause and ovarian follicles matured to ≥stage I–II (host-seeking arrest) or were found in various stages of degeneration. Diapause was initiated in the majority of Cx. tarsalis and Cx. stigmatosoma females by mid-late October and was terminated after the winter solstice, but host-seeking seemed limited by temperature. An accrual of 97.52 ± 30.7 and 162.85 ± 79.3 degree-days after the winter solstice was estimated to be necessary for diapause termination in Cx. tarsalis under field and seminatural conditions, respectively. An increase in the proportion of blood-fed Culex females in resting collections occurred concurrently with diapause termination in field populations based on ovarian morphometrics. WNV RNA was detected in one pool of 18 males and in a single blood-fed female Cx. tarsalis collected during winter. Therefore, both vertically and horizontally infected Culex females may persist through winter and possibly transmit WNV after diapause termination in late winter or early spring in the Sacramento Valley of California. PMID:23926775

Growing wheat in Biosphere 2 under elevated CO2: observations and modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tubiello, F. N.; Mahato, T.; Morton, T.; Druitt, J. W.; Volk, T.; Marino, B. D.

1999-01-01

Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. Yecora Rojo) was grown in the intensive agricultural biome (IAB) of Biosphere 2 during the l995-l996 winter/spring season. Environmental conditions were characterized by a day/night temperature regime of 27/17 degrees C, relative humidity (RH) levels around 45%, mean atmospheric CO2 concentration of 450 ppmv, and natural light conditions with mean intensities about half of outside levels. Weekly samples of above-ground plant matter were collected throughout the growing season and phenological events recorded. A computer model, CERES-Wheat, previously tested under both field and controlled conditions, was used to simulate the observed crop growth and to help in data analysis. We found that CERES-Wheat simulated the data collected at Biosphere 2 to within 10% of observed, thus suggesting that wheat growth inside the IAB was comparable to that documented in other environments. The model predicts phenological stages and final dry matter (DM) production within l0% of the observed data. Measured DM production rates, normalized for light absorbed by the crop. suggested photosynthetic efficiencies intermediate between those observed under optimal field conditions and those recorded in NASA-Controlled Ecological Life-Support Systems (CELSS). We suggest that such a difference can be explained primarily in terms of low light levels inside the IAB, with additional effects due to elevated CO2 concentrations and diffuse light fractions.

Winter wheat yield estimation of remote sensing research based on WOFOST crop model and leaf area index assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yanling; Gong, Adu; Li, Jing; Wang, Jingmei

2017-04-01

Accurate crop growth monitoring and yield predictive information are significant to improve the sustainable development of agriculture and ensure the security of national food. Remote sensing observation and crop growth simulation models are two new technologies, which have highly potential applications in crop growth monitoring and yield forecasting in recent years. However, both of them have limitations in mechanism or regional application respectively. Remote sensing information can not reveal crop growth and development, inner mechanism of yield formation and the affection of environmental meteorological conditions. Crop growth simulation models have difficulties in obtaining data and parameterization from single-point to regional application. In order to make good use of the advantages of these two technologies, the coupling technique of remote sensing information and crop growth simulation models has been studied. Filtering and optimizing model parameters are key to yield estimation by remote sensing and crop model based on regional crop assimilation. Winter wheat of GaoCheng was selected as the experiment object in this paper. And then the essential data was collected, such as biochemical data and farmland environmental data and meteorological data about several critical growing periods. Meanwhile, the image of environmental mitigation small satellite HJ-CCD was obtained. In this paper, research work and major conclusions are as follows. (1) Seven vegetation indexes were selected to retrieve LAI, and then linear regression model was built up between each of these indexes and the measured LAI. The result shows that the accuracy of EVI model was the highest (R2=0.964 at anthesis stage and R2=0.920 at filling stage). Thus, EVI as the most optimal vegetation index to predict LAI in this paper. (2) EFAST method was adopted in this paper to conduct the sensitive analysis to the 26 initial parameters of the WOFOST model and then a sensitivity index was constructed to evaluate the influence of each parameter mentioned above on the winter wheat yield formation. Finally, six parameters that sensitivity index more than 0.1 as sensitivity factors were chose, which are TSUM1, SLATB1, SLATB2, SPAN, EFFTB3 and TMPF4. To other parameters, we confirmed them via practical measurement and calculation, available literature or WOFOST default. Eventually, we completed the regulation of WOFOST parameters. (3) Look-up table algorithm was used to realize single-point yield estimation through the assimilation of the WOFOST model and the retrieval LAI. This simulation achieved a high accuracy which perfectly meet the purpose of assimilation (R2=0.941 and RMSE=194.58kg/hm2). In this paper, the optimum value of sensitivity parameters were confirmed and the estimation of single-point yield were finished. Key words: yield estimation of winter wheat, LAI, WOFOST crop growth model, assimilation

Weather and eared grebe winter migration near the Great Salt Lake, Utah.

PubMed

Williams, Augusta A; Laird, Neil F

2018-03-01

This study provides insight from the use of weather radar observations to understand the characteristics of the eared grebe migration near the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and provides unique information on weather conditions connected to these migration events. Doppler weather radar measurements from the Salt Lake City, Utah WSR-88D radar site (KMTX), along with meteorological surface and rawinsonde data, were used to identify and examine 281 eared grebe migration events across 15 winters from 1997/1998 through 2011/2012. An average of about 19 migration events occurred each winter with considerable interannual variability, as well as large variance in the spatial area and number of birds departing the GSL during each event. The migration events typically occurred during clear sky conditions in the presence of surface high pressure and colder than average surface temperatures. Migration events began 55 min after sunset, on average across the winter seasons, and in one case we demonstrate that an extended, nonstop flight was initiated of the departing eared grebes to northern Mexico. Eared grebes leaving the GSL largely flew above the freezing level with a mean northerly tailwind at flight altitude of 3.1 m s -1 and a westerly, cross-flight wind of 5.0 m s -1 while having an average flight speed at cruising altitude of 16.9 m s -1 , or 61 km h -1 . In addition to determining the variability of meteorological conditions during migration events across the 15 winters, atmospheric conditions during the largest migration event observed are presented and discussed.

Weather and eared grebe winter migration near the Great Salt Lake, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Augusta A.; Laird, Neil F.

2018-03-01

This study provides insight from the use of weather radar observations to understand the characteristics of the eared grebe migration near the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and provides unique information on weather conditions connected to these migration events. Doppler weather radar measurements from the Salt Lake City, Utah WSR-88D radar site (KMTX), along with meteorological surface and rawinsonde data, were used to identify and examine 281 eared grebe migration events across 15 winters from 1997/1998 through 2011/2012. An average of about 19 migration events occurred each winter with considerable interannual variability, as well as large variance in the spatial area and number of birds departing the GSL during each event. The migration events typically occurred during clear sky conditions in the presence of surface high pressure and colder than average surface temperatures. Migration events began 55 min after sunset, on average across the winter seasons, and in one case we demonstrate that an extended, nonstop flight was initiated of the departing eared grebes to northern Mexico. Eared grebes leaving the GSL largely flew above the freezing level with a mean northerly tailwind at flight altitude of 3.1 m s-1 and a westerly, cross-flight wind of 5.0 m s-1 while having an average flight speed at cruising altitude of 16.9 m s-1, or 61 km h-1. In addition to determining the variability of meteorological conditions during migration events across the 15 winters, atmospheric conditions during the largest migration event observed are presented and discussed.

Response of Groundwater Recharge to Potential Future Climate Change in the Grand River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jyrkama, M. I.; Sykes, J. F.

2004-05-01

The Grand River watershed is situated in south-western Ontario, draining an area of nearly 7000 square kilometres into Lake Erie. Approximately eighty percent of the population in the watershed derive their drinking water from groundwater sources. Quantifying the recharge input to the groundwater system and the impact of climate variability due to climate change is, therefore, essential for ensuring the quantity and sustainability of the watershed's drinking water resources in the future. The primary goal of this study is to investigate the impact of potential future climate changes on groundwater recharge in the Grand River watershed. The physically based hydrologic model HELP3 is used in conjunction with GIS to simulate the past conditions and future changes in evapotranspiration, potential surface runoff, and groundwater recharge rates as a result of projected changes in the regions climate. The climate change projections are based on the general predictions reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Forty years of daily historical weather data are used as the reference condition. The impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle over a forty year study period is modelled by perturbing the HELP3 model input parameters using predicted future changes in precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. The changes in land use and vegetation cover over time were not considered in the study. The results of the study indicate that the overall simulated rate of groundwater recharge is predicted to increase in the watershed as a result of the projected future climate change. Warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent and duration of ground frost and shift the springmelt from spring toward winter months, allowing more water to infiltrate into the ground. This results in decreased surface runoff, higher infiltration, and subsequently increased groundwater recharge. The predicted higher intensity and frequency of future precipitation will not only contribute significantly to increased surface runoff, but also results in higher evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge rates due to increased amounts of available water. Changes in the incoming solar radiation have a minimal impact on the simulated hydrologic processes. The overall simulated average annual recharge in the watershed is predicted to increase by approximately 100 mm/year over the next forty years from 189 mm/year to 289 mm/year.

Interannual control of plankton communities by deep winter mixing and prey/predator interactions in the NW Mediterranean: Results from a 30-year 3D modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auger, P. A.; Ulses, C.; Estournel, C.; Stemmann, L.; Somot, S.; Diaz, F.

2014-05-01

A realistic modeling approach is designed to address the role of winter mixing on the interannual variability of plankton dynamics in the north-western (NW) Mediterranean basin. For the first time, a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model (Eco3m-S) covering a 30-year period (1976-2005) is validated on available in situ and satellite data for the NW Mediterranean. In this region, cold, dry winds in winter often lead to deep convection and strong upwelling of nutrients into the euphotic layer. High nutrient contents at the end of winter then support the development of a strong spring bloom of phytoplankton. Model results indicate that annual primary production is not affected by winter mixing due to seasonal balance (minimum in winter and maximum in spring). However, the total annual water column-integrated phytoplankton biomass appears to be favored by winter mixing because zooplankton grazing activity is low in winter and early spring. This reduced grazing is explained here by the rarefaction of prey due to both light limitation and the effect of mixing-induced dilution on prey/predator interactions. A negative impact of winter mixing on winter zooplankton biomass is generally simulated except for mesozooplankton. This difference is assumed to stem from the lower parameterized mortality, top trophic position and detritivorous diet of mesozooplankton in the model. Moreover, model suggests that the variability of annual mesozooplankton biomass is principally modulated by the effects of winter mixing on winter biomass. Thus, interannual variability of winter nutrient contents in the euphotic layer, resulting from winter mixing, would control spring primary production and thus annual mesozooplankton biomass. Our results show a bottom-up control of mesozooplankton communities, as observed at a coastal location of the Ligurian Sea.

Latitudinal variation in population structure of wintering Pacific Black Brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schamber, J.L.; Sedinger, J.S.; Ward, D.H.; Hagmeier, K.R.

2007-01-01

Latitudinal variation in population structure during the winter has been reported in many migratory birds, but has been documented in few species of waterfowl. Variation in environmental and social conditions at wintering sites can potentially influence the population dynamics of differential migrants. We examined latitudinal variation in sex and age classes of wintering Pacific Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). Brant are distributed along a wide latitudinal gradient from Alaska to Mexico during the winter. Accordingly, migration distances for brant using different wintering locations are highly variable and winter settlement patterns are likely associated with a spatially variable food resource. We used resightings of brant banded in southwestern Alaska to examine sex and age ratios of birds wintering at Boundary Bay in British Columbia, and at San Quintin Bay, Ojo de Liebre Lagoon, and San Ignacio Lagoon in Baja California from 1998 to 2000. Sex ratios were similar among wintering locations for adults and were consistent with the mating strategy of geese. The distribution of juveniles varied among wintering areas, with greater proportions of juveniles observed at northern (San Quintin Bay and Ojo de Liebre Lagoon) than at southern (San Ignacio Lagoon) locations in Baja California. We suggest that age-related variation in the winter distribution of Pacific Black Brant is mediated by variation in productivity among individuals at different wintering locations and by social interactions among wintering family groups.

Simulation of seasonal US precipitation and temperature by the nested CWRF-ECHAM system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ligang; Liang, Xin-Zhong; DeWitt, David; Samel, Arthur N.; Wang, Julian X. L.

2016-02-01

This study investigates the refined simulation skill that results when the regional Climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model is nested in the ECMWF Hamburg version 4.5 (ECHAM) atmospheric general circulation model over the United States during 1980-2009, where observed sea surface temperatures are used in both models. Over the contiguous US, for each of the four seasons from winter to fall, CWRF reduces the root mean square error of the ECHAM seasonal mean surface air temperature simulation by 0.19, 0.82, 2.02 and 1.85 °C, and increases the equitable threat score of seasonal mean precipitation by 0.18, 0.11, 0.09 and 0.12. CWRF also simulates much more realistically daily precipitation frequency and heavy precipitation events, typically over the Central Great Plains, Cascade Mountains and Gulf Coast States. These CWRF skill enhancements are attributed to the increased spatial resolution and physics refinements in representing orographic, terrestrial hydrology, convection, and cloud-aerosol-radiation effects and their interactions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature interannual variability shows that, in general, CWRF substantially improves the spatial distribution of both quantities, while temporal evolution (i.e. interannual variability) of the first 3 primary patterns is highly correlated with that of the driving ECHAM (except for summer precipitation), and they both have low temporal correlations against observations. During winter, when large-scale forcing dominates, both models also have similar responses to strong ENSO signals where they successfully capture observed precipitation composite anomalies but substantially fail to reproduce surface air temperature anomalies. When driven by the ECMWF Reanalysis Interim, CWRF produces a very realistic interannual evolution of large-scale precipitation and surface air temperature patterns where the temporal correlations with observations are significant. These results indicate that CWRF can greatly improve mesoscale regional climate structures but it cannot change interannual variations of the large-scale patterns, which are determined by the driving lateral boundary conditions.

The Horizontal Ice Nucleation Chamber (HINC): INP measurements at conditions relevant for mixed-phase clouds at the High Altitude Research Station Jungfraujoch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacher, Larissa; Lohmann, Ulrike; Boose, Yvonne; Zipori, Assaf; Herrmann, Erik; Bukowiecki, Nicolas; Steinbacher, Martin; Kanji, Zamin A.

2017-12-01

In this work we describe the Horizontal Ice Nucleation Chamber (HINC) as a new instrument to measure ambient ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations for conditions relevant to mixed-phase clouds. Laboratory verification and validation experiments confirm the accuracy of the thermodynamic conditions of temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) in HINC with uncertainties in T of ±0.4 K and in RH with respect to water (RHw) of ±1.5 %, which translates into an uncertainty in RH with respect to ice (RHi) of ±3.0 % at T > 235 K. For further validation of HINC as a field instrument, two measurement campaigns were conducted in winters 2015 and 2016 at the High Altitude Research Station Jungfraujoch (JFJ; Switzerland, 3580 m a. s. l. ) to sample ambient INPs. During winters 2015 and 2016 the site encountered free-tropospheric conditions 92 and 79 % of the time, respectively. We measured INP concentrations at 242 K at water-subsaturated conditions (RHw = 94 %), relevant for the formation of ice clouds, and in the water-supersaturated regime (RHw = 104 %) to represent ice formation occurring under mixed-phase cloud conditions. In winters 2015 and 2016 the median INP concentrations at RHw = 94 % was below the minimum detectable concentration. At RHw = 104 %, INP concentrations were an order of magnitude higher, with median concentrations in winter 2015 of 2.8 per standard liter (std L-1; normalized to standard T of 273 K and pressure, p, of 1013 hPa) and 4.7 std L-1 in winter 2016. The measurements are in agreement with previous winter measurements obtained with the Portable Ice Nucleation Chamber (PINC) of 2.2 std L-1 at the same location. During winter 2015, two events caused the INP concentrations at RHw = 104 % to significantly increase above the campaign average. First, an increase to 72.1 std L-1 was measured during an event influenced by marine air, arriving at the JFJ from the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea. The contribution from anthropogenic or other sources can thereby not be ruled out. Second, INP concentrations up to 146.2 std L-1 were observed during a Saharan dust event. To our knowledge this is the first time that a clear enrichment in ambient INP concentration in remote regions of the atmosphere is observed during a time of marine air mass influence, suggesting the importance of marine particles on ice nucleation in the free troposphere.

A numerical study of the acid rain in northern Taiwan in winter season

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Ching-Sen; Deng, Zen-Sing

1996-12-31

Two-thirds of the land mass of Taiwan island is covered by mountains. In winter precipitation could occur in northern Taiwan when the prevailing wind was from northeastern direction. In northern Taiwan the acid rain (pH value less than 5.0) in winter time could contribute about 30 rain in the whole year. A three-dimensional numerical model with terrain following coordinated system was used to simulate the precipitation system and the characteristics of acid rain. A smooth terrain was assumed in the model. A mean sounding was used to initialize the numerical model when acid rain occurred in northern Taiwan during wintermore » time from 1991 to 1993. Investigations of the effect of pollutions from abroad on the acid rain in northern Taiwan in winter are considered for the future.« less

Influence of outdoor winter environment on the course of infectious bovine keratoconjunctivitis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kopecky, K.E.; Pugh, G.W. Jr.; McDonald, T.J.

1981-11-01

The effect of environmental conditions on the onset, severity, and duration of Moraxella bovis infection and subsequent clinical disease was studied. Twelve calves were used; 6 were maintained under usual isolated experimental conditions (inside), and 6 were kept under normal feedlot conditions (outside) during the winter (-20 to +15 C). The cattle housed inside had a higher infection rate, a milder disease, and longer duration of infection than did the cattle kept out side. Seemingly, the stress of the cold weather caused a more severe disease of shorter duration.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

[Morphophysiological monitoring of winter wheat at spring in connection with problem of global climate change].

PubMed

Klimov, S V; Burakhanova, E A; Dubinina, I M; Alieva, G P; Sal'nikova, E B; Trunova, T I

2006-01-01

Data on morphophysiological monitoring of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivar Mironovskaya 808 grown in Hoagland and Arnon solution in a greenhouse and transferred to natural conditions in March-April 2004 with the mean daily temperature of 0.6 +/- 0.7 degrees C within the exposure period of 42 days are presented. Water content, dry weight of plants and their organs, frost hardiness of plants, degree of tissue damage by frost, CO2 metabolism (photosynthesis and respiration), concentrations of sugars in tissues and proportions between different sugar forms, and activities of soluble and insoluble acid and alkaline phosphatases were monitored. Monitoring was carried out for three experimental variants simulating different microclimatic conditions in spring: after snow melting (experiment I), under ice crust (experiment II), and under snow cover (experiment III). Plants in experiments III and II demonstrated a higher water content in tissues, lower frost hardiness, higher rates of biomass loss, lower concentration of sugars and lower di- to monosaccharide ratio in tissues, and higher total invertase activity, particularly, cell wall-associated acid invertase activity. The dark respiration rates at 0 degrees C did not significantly differ between experimental variants. The photosynthetic capacity at this measurement temperature was maintained in all experimental variants being most pronounced in experiment II with the most intense photoinhibition under natural conditions. Comparison of experiments III and II with experiment I is used to discuss the negative effect of changes in certain microclimatic variables associated with global warming and leading to plant extortion and death from frost in spring.

Near-shore talik development beneath shallow water in expanding thermokarst lakes, Old Crow Flats, Yukon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy-Leveillee, Pascale; Burn, Christopher R.

2017-05-01

It is generally assumed that permafrost is preserved beneath shallow lakes and ponds in the Western North American Arctic where water depth is less than about two thirds of the late-winter lake ice thickness. Here we present field observations of talik development beneath water as shallow as 0.2 m despite a lake ice thickness of 1.5 m, in Old Crow Flats (OCF), YT. Conditions leading to the initiation and development of taliks beneath shallow water were investigated with field measurements of shore erosion rates, bathymetry, ice thickness, snow accumulation, and lake bottom temperature near the shores of two expanding lakes in OCF. The sensitivity of talik development to variations in lake bottom thermal regime was then investigated numerically. Where ice reached the lake bottom, talik development was controlled by the ratio of freezing degree days to thawing degree days at the lake bottom (FDDlb/TDDlb). In some cases, spatial variations in on-ice snow depth had a minimal effect on annual mean lake bottom temperature (Tlb) but caused sufficient variations in FDDlb/TDDlb to influence talik development. Where Tlb was close to but greater than 0°C simulations indicated that the thermal offset allowed permafrost aggradation to occur under certain conditions, resulting in irregular near-shore talik geometries. The results highlight the sensitivity of permafrost to small changes in lake bottom thermal conditions where the water column freezes through in early winter and indicate the occurrence of permafrost degradation beneath very shallow water in the near-shore zone of Arctic ponds and lakes.

Winter warming as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century

PubMed Central

Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz; Hansen, Birger U; Hansen, Marc O; Stecher, Ole; Elberling, Bo

2015-01-01

Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910–1930 to 1990–2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming. To explain the strong winter importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site-specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree-days as well as to winter and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991–1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997–2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer winter and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and warm quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed ‘greening of the Arctic’ which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of winter warming. PMID:25788025

Intraspecific variation in Pinus pinaster PSII photochemical efficiency in response to winter stress and freezing temperatures.

PubMed

Corcuera, Leyre; Gil-Pelegrin, Eustaquio; Notivol, Eduardo

2011-01-01

As part of a program to select maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) genotypes for resistance to low winter temperatures, we examined variation in photosystem II activity by chlorophyll fluorescence. Populations and families within populations from contrasting climates were tested during two consecutive winters through two progeny trials, one located at a continental and xeric site and one at a mesic site with Atlantic influence. We also obtained the LT₅₀, or the temperature that causes 50% damage, by controlled freezing and the subsequent analysis of chlorophyll fluorescence in needles and stems that were collected from populations at the continental trial site.P. pinaster showed sensitivity to winter stress at the continental site, during the colder winter. The combination of low temperatures, high solar irradiation and low precipitation caused sustained decreases in maximal photochemical efficiency (F(v)/F(m)), quantum yield of non-cyclic electron transport (Φ(PSII)) and photochemical quenching (qP). The variation in photochemical parameters was larger among families than among populations, and population differences appeared only under the harshest conditions at the continental site. As expected, the environmental effects (winter and site) on the photochemical parameters were much larger than the genotypic effects (population or family). LT₅₀ was closely related to the minimum winter temperatures of the population's range. The dark-adapted F(v)/F(m) ratio discriminated clearly between interior and coastal populations.In conclusion, variations in F(v)/F(m), Φ(PSII), qP and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) in response to winter stress were primarily due to the differences between the winter conditions and the sites and secondarily due to the differences among families and their interactions with the environment. Populations from continental climates showed higher frost tolerance (LT₅₀) than coastal populations that typically experience mild winters. Therefore, LT₅₀, as estimated by F(v)/F(m), is a reliable indicator of frost tolerance among P. pinaster populations.

Intraspecific Variation in Pinus Pinaster PSII Photochemical Efficiency in Response to Winter Stress and Freezing Temperatures

PubMed Central

Corcuera, Leyre; Gil-Pelegrin, Eustaquio; Notivol, Eduardo

2011-01-01

As part of a program to select maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) genotypes for resistance to low winter temperatures, we examined variation in photosystem II activity by chlorophyll fluorescence. Populations and families within populations from contrasting climates were tested during two consecutive winters through two progeny trials, one located at a continental and xeric site and one at a mesic site with Atlantic influence. We also obtained the LT50, or the temperature that causes 50% damage, by controlled freezing and the subsequent analysis of chlorophyll fluorescence in needles and stems that were collected from populations at the continental trial site. P. pinaster showed sensitivity to winter stress at the continental site, during the colder winter. The combination of low temperatures, high solar irradiation and low precipitation caused sustained decreases in maximal photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm), quantum yield of non-cyclic electron transport (ΦPSII) and photochemical quenching (qP). The variation in photochemical parameters was larger among families than among populations, and population differences appeared only under the harshest conditions at the continental site. As expected, the environmental effects (winter and site) on the photochemical parameters were much larger than the genotypic effects (population or family). LT50 was closely related to the minimum winter temperatures of the population's range. The dark-adapted Fv/Fm ratio discriminated clearly between interior and coastal populations. In conclusion, variations in Fv/Fm, ΦPSII, qP and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) in response to winter stress were primarily due to the differences between the winter conditions and the sites and secondarily due to the differences among families and their interactions with the environment. Populations from continental climates showed higher frost tolerance (LT50) than coastal populations that typically experience mild winters. Therefore, LT50, as estimated by Fv/Fm, is a reliable indicator of frost tolerance among P. pinaster populations. PMID:22220195

Winter warming as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century.

PubMed

Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz; Hansen, Birger U; Hansen, Marc O; Stecher, Ole; Elberling, Bo

2015-06-01

Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910-1930 to 1990-2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming. To explain the strong winter importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site-specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree-days as well as to winter and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991-1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997-2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer winter and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and warm quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed 'greening of the Arctic' which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of winter warming. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A 2650-year-long record of environmental change from northern Yellowstone National Park based on a comparison of multiple proxy data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitlock, C.; Dean, W.; Rosenbaum, J.; Stevens, L.; Fritz, S.; Bracht, B.; Power, M.

2008-01-01

Geochemical, stable-isotope, pollen, charcoal, and diatom records were analyzed at high-resolution in cores obtained from Crevice Lake, a varved-sediment lake in northern Yellowstone National Park. The objective was to reconstruct the ecohydrologic, vegetation, and fire history of the watershed for the last 2650 years to better understand past climate variations at the forest-steppe transition. The data suggest a period of limited bottom-water anoxia, relatively wet winters, and cool springs and summers from 2650 to 2100 cal yr BP (700-150 BC). Dry warm conditions occurred between 2100 and 850-800 cal yr BP (150 BC and AD 1100-1150), when the lake was anoxic, winter precipitation was low, and summer stratification was protracted. The data are consistent with overall warmer/drier conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, although they suggest a shift towards wetter winters within that period. The period from 850 to 800 cal yr BP (AD 1100-1150) to 250 cal yr BP (AD 1700) was characterized by greater water-column mixing and cooler spring/summer conditions than before. In addition, fire activity shifted towards infrequent large events and pollen production was low. From 250 to 150 cal yr BP (AD 1700-1800), winter precipitation was moderate compared to previous conditions, and the lake was again stratified, suggesting warm summers. Between 150 and 42 cal yr BP (AD 1800-1908), winter precipitation increased and spring and summer conditions became moderate. Metal pollution, probably from regional mining operations, is evident in the 1870s. Large fires occurred between ca. 1800-1880, but in general the forests were more closed than before. The Crevice Lake record suggests that the last 150 years of Yellowstone's environmental history were characterized by intermediate conditions when compared with the previous 2500 years. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.

1973 Winter Simulation Conference. Sponsored by ACM/AIIE/SHARE/SCi/TIMS.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoggatt, Austin Curwood, Ed.

A record of the current state of the art of simulation and the major part it now plays in policy formation in large organizations is provided by these conference proceedings. The 40 papers presented reveal an emphasis on the applications of simulation. In addition, the abstracts of 28 papers submitted to a more informal "paper fair" are also…

Cryopreservation of Salix sp. dormant winter buds

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In cryopreservation, using dormant winter buds (DB) as source plant materials is economically advantageous over tissue culture options (TC). Processing DB does not require aseptic conditions and elaborate cryopreservation procedures. However, the DB approach is only feasible for cryopreserving a sel...

Travel in adverse winter weather conditions by blind pedestrians.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-08-31

Winter weather creates many orientation and mobility (O&M) challenges for people who are visually impaired. Getting the cane tip stuck is one of the noticeable challenges when traveling in snow, particularly when the walking surface is covered in dee...

The Effect of Dust on the Martian Polar Vortices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guzewich, Scott D.; Toigo, A. D.; Waugh, D. W.

2016-01-01

The influence of atmospheric dust on the dynamics and stability of the martian polar vortices is examined, through analysis of Mars Climate Sounder observations and MarsWRF general circulation model simulations. We show that regional and global dust storms produce transient vortex warming events that partially or fully disrupt the northern winter polar vortex for brief periods. Increased atmospheric dust heating alters the Hadley circulation and shifts the downwelling branch of the circulation poleward, leading to a disruption of the polar vortex for a period of days to weeks. Through our simulations, we find this effect is dependent on the atmospheric heating rate, which can be changed by increasing the amount of dust in the atmosphere or by altering the dust optical properties (e.g., single scattering albedo). Despite this, our simulations show that some level of atmospheric dust is necessary to produce a distinct northern hemisphere winter polar vortex.

Simulations of the general circulation of the Martian atmosphere. I - Polar processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pollack, James B.; Haberle, Robert M.; Schaeffer, James; Lee, Hilda

1990-01-01

Numerical simulations of the Martian atmosphere general circulation are carried out for 50 simulated days, using a three-dimensional model, based on the primitive equations of meteorology, which incorporated the radiative effects of atmospheric dust on solar and thermal radiation. A large number of numerical experiments were conducted for alternative choices of seasonal date and dust optical depth. It was found that, as the dust content of the winter polar region increased, the rate of atmospheric CO2 condensation increased sharply. It is shown that the strong seasonal variation in the atmospheric dust content observed might cause a number of hemispheric asymmetries. These asymmetries include the greater prevalence of polar hoods in the northern polar region during winter, the lower albedo of the northern polar cap during spring, and the total dissipation of the northern CO2 ice cap during the warmer seasons.

The effect of dust on the martian polar vortices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzewich, Scott D.; Toigo, A. D.; Waugh, D. W.

2016-11-01

The influence of atmospheric dust on the dynamics and stability of the martian polar vortices is examined, through analysis of Mars Climate Sounder observations and MarsWRF general circulation model simulations. We show that regional and global dust storms produce ;transient vortex warming; events that partially or fully disrupt the northern winter polar vortex for brief periods. Increased atmospheric dust heating alters the Hadley circulation and shifts the downwelling branch of the circulation poleward, leading to a disruption of the polar vortex for a period of days to weeks. Through our simulations, we find this effect is dependent on the atmospheric heating rate, which can be changed by increasing the amount of dust in the atmosphere or by altering the dust optical properties (e.g., single scattering albedo). Despite this, our simulations show that some level of atmospheric dust is necessary to produce a distinct northern hemisphere winter polar vortex.

The impact of boreal autumn SST anomalies over the South Pacific on boreal winter precipitation over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ao, Juan; Sun, Jianqi

2016-05-01

The possible mechanism behind the variability in the dipole pattern of boreal winter precipitation over East Asia is analyzed in this study. The results show that the SST anomalies (SSTAs) over the South Pacific Ocean (SPO) in boreal autumn are closely related to the variability in the dipole pattern of boreal winter precipitation over East Asia. The physical link between the boreal autumn SPO SSTAs and the boreal winter East Asian precipitation dipole pattern is shown to mainly be the seasonal persistence of the SPO SSTAs themselves. The seasonal persistence of the SPO SSTAs can memorize and transport the signal of the boreal autumn SSTAs to the following winter, and then stimulates a meridional teleconnection pattern from the SH to the NH, resulting in a meridional dipole pattern of atmospheric circulation over East Asia in boreal winter. As a major influencing factor, this dipole pattern of the atmospheric circulation can finally lead to the anomalous precipitation dipole pattern over East Asia in boreal winter. These observed physical processes are further confirmed in this study through numerical simulation. The evidence from this study, showing the impact of the SPO SSTAs in boreal autumn, not only deepens our understanding of the variability in East Asian boreal winter precipitation, but also provides a potentially useful predictor for precipitation in the region.

The Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dickinson, Robert E.; Oleson, Keith; Bonan, Gordon

2006-01-01

Several multidecadal simulations have been carried out with the new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). This paper reports an analysis of the land component of these simulations. Global annual averages over land appear to be within the uncertainty of observational datasets, but the seasonal cycle over land of temperature and precipitation appears to be too weak. These departures from observations appear to be primarily a consequence of deficiencies in the simulation of the atmospheric model rather than of the land processes. High latitudes of northern winter are biased sufficiently warm to have a significant impact on themore » simulated value of global land temperature. The precipitation is approximately doubled from what it should be at some locations, and the snowpack and spring runoff are also excessive. The winter precipitation over Tibet is larger than observed. About two-thirds of this precipitation is sublimated during the winter, but what remains still produces a snowpack that is very large compared to that observed with correspondingly excessive spring runoff. A large cold anomaly over the Sahara Desert and Sahel also appears to be a consequence of a large anomaly in downward longwave radiation; low column water vapor appears to be most responsible. The modeled precipitation over the Amazon basin is low compared to that observed, the soil becomes too dry, and the temperature is too warm during the dry season.« less

Using sinuosity to measure the waviness of the extratropical circulation under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Vavrus, S. J.; Martin, J. E.; Francis, J. A.

2014-12-01

Extreme weather events, such as heat and cold waves, droughts, and floods, have substantial social and economic impacts. Whether these extreme events are related to one of the prominent components of climate change --- Arctic Amplification (AA)--- is controversial. The hypothesis proposed by Francis and Vavrus (2012) is that a reduced meridional temperature gradient owing to AA will cause a weaker and wavier extratropical circulation, which will result in slower progression of weather systems and more atmospheric blocking events. To test this hypothesis we borrow the concept of "sinuosity" from geomorphology to measure the waviness of the boreal extratropical circulation. As applied here, sinuosity is defined as the ratio of the curvilinear length of a circumhemispheric geopotential height contour to the perimeter of its equivalent latitude, where the contour and the equivalent latitude enclose the same area. We use 500hPa daily geopotential heights from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and from the CESM climate model's historical and RCP8.5 greenhouse simulations to calculate sinuosity. Observations and simulations exhibit similar annual cycles of sinuosity, with the maximum sinuosity occurring in summer and minimum sinuosity during winter. Although no long-term trend (1948-2013) in sinuosity is observed in winter (DJF) or summer (JJA), a positive linear trend has occurred since the 1980s and accelerated after 1995 at middle latitudes (winter) and high latitudes (summer). The 500hPa zonal wind is found to weaken at latitudes where sinuosity increases. The change of sinuosity and corresponding zonal wind in RCP8.5 simulations is also explored. Our study finds a strong negative correlation between observed daily sinuosity and the daily Arctic Oscillation (AO) index in all seasons. This negative correlation and the tendency of CMIP5 models to simulate a negative AO-like pattern aloft during winter in a warmer climate suggest a trend toward a wavier extratropical atmospheric circulation in the future.

Winter diversity and expression of proteorhodopsin genes in a polar ocean

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Dan; Maranger, Roxane; Balagué, Vanessa; Coll-Lladó, Montserrat; Lovejoy, Connie; Pedrós-Alió, Carlos

2015-01-01

Mixotrophy is a valuable functional trait used by microbes when environmental conditions vary broadly or resources are limited. In the sunlit waters of the ocean, photoheterotrophy, a form of mixotrophy, is often mediated by proteorhodopsin (PR), a seven helices transmembrane protein binding the retinal chromophore. Altogether, they allow bacteria to capture photic energy for sensory and proton gradient formation cell functions. The seasonal occurrence and diversity of the gene coding for PR in cold oligotrophic polar oceans is not known and PR expression has not yet been reported. Here we show that PR is widely distributed among bacterial taxa, and that PR expression decreased markedly during the winter months in the Arctic Ocean. Gammaproteobacteria-like PR sequences were always dominant. However, within the second most common affiliation, there was a transition from Flavobacteria-like PR in early winter to Alphaproteobacteria-like PR in late winter. The phylogenetic shifts followed carbon dynamics, where patterns in expression were consistent with community succession, as identified by DNA community fingerprinting. Although genes for PR were always present, the trend in decreasing transcripts from January to February suggested reduced functional utility of PR during winter. Under winter darkness, sustained expression suggests that PR may continue to be useful for non-ATP forming functions, such as environmental sensing or small solute transport. The persistence of PR expression in winter among some bacterial groups may offer a competitive advantage, where its multifunctionality enhances microbial survival under harsh polar conditions. PMID:25700336

Winter diversity and expression of proteorhodopsin genes in a polar ocean.

PubMed

Nguyen, Dan; Maranger, Roxane; Balagué, Vanessa; Coll-Lladó, Montserrat; Lovejoy, Connie; Pedrós-Alió, Carlos

2015-08-01

Mixotrophy is a valuable functional trait used by microbes when environmental conditions vary broadly or resources are limited. In the sunlit waters of the ocean, photoheterotrophy, a form of mixotrophy, is often mediated by proteorhodopsin (PR), a seven helices transmembrane protein binding the retinal chromophore. Altogether, they allow bacteria to capture photic energy for sensory and proton gradient formation cell functions. The seasonal occurrence and diversity of the gene coding for PR in cold oligotrophic polar oceans is not known and PR expression has not yet been reported. Here we show that PR is widely distributed among bacterial taxa, and that PR expression decreased markedly during the winter months in the Arctic Ocean. Gammaproteobacteria-like PR sequences were always dominant. However, within the second most common affiliation, there was a transition from Flavobacteria-like PR in early winter to Alphaproteobacteria-like PR in late winter. The phylogenetic shifts followed carbon dynamics, where patterns in expression were consistent with community succession, as identified by DNA community fingerprinting. Although genes for PR were always present, the trend in decreasing transcripts from January to February suggested reduced functional utility of PR during winter. Under winter darkness, sustained expression suggests that PR may continue to be useful for non-ATP forming functions, such as environmental sensing or small solute transport. The persistence of PR expression in winter among some bacterial groups may offer a competitive advantage, where its multifunctionality enhances microbial survival under harsh polar conditions.

Analysis and Comparison of the Temperature and Snowfall Conditions for the Winters of 2014/15 and 2015/16 at Three Ski Resorts in British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pidwirny, M. J.; Pedersen, S.

2016-12-01

Most ski resorts located close to the west coast of Canada experienced extremely poor weather conditions during the winter of 2014/15. During this year, a persistent area of high pressure created "the Blob" in the North Pacific Ocean, which influenced weather patterns on the west coast of North America producing very mild temperatures inland. Further, for many ski resorts winter precipitation that normally arrives in the form of snow, instead fell as rain on many occasions. In Western Canada, ski resorts saw an 18% decrease in skier visits in 2014/15 relative to the average of the previous 8 years. NOAA forecasts for the winter of 2015/16 suggested another mild winter because of a strong El Nino event. Despite this forecast, ski resorts in Western Canada experienced a very good ski season. This research examines the climate characteristics of the winters of 2014/15 and 2015/16 in detail for three ski resorts in British Columbia, Canada: Whistler-Blackcomb, Cypress Mountain, and Big White. The climatic characteristics of these 2 years were also compared to the winter of 2012/13, the most recent banner ski year in the last decade. Data for this study came from Snow-Forecast.com, a web-based company that creates tailor-made weather forecasts for ski resorts around the world using climate model output from NOAA. From Snow-Forecast.com, we mined archived hindcast data that was available at the daily level to analyze and compare mean air temperature and snowfall patterns from November 1 to March 31. Daily temperature data was plotted in a line graph for each year. To better clarify trends, we also graphed an 11-year running mean for the temperature data. Snowfall data was plotted in a cumulative line graph. The winter of 2014/15 was on average warmer by 3.9°C for Cypress, 5.4°C for Whistler, and 4.4°C for Big White than the winter of 2012/13. The winter of 2015/16 was on average 2.5°C, 3.6°C, and 3.6°C warmer than the winter of 2012/13, respectively. Snowfall accumulations decreased by about 79% for Cypress, 57% for Whistler, and 9% for Big White in 2014/15 when compared to 2012/13. In contrast, the winter of 2015/16 saw snowfall increases of 10% for Cypress, 35% for Whistler, and 97% for Big White relative to 2012/13. Together, the colder temperatures and higher snowfall produced better than expected ski conditions in 2015/16.

Interannual Sea Level Variations in the Tropical Indian Ocean from Geosat and Shallow Water Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perigaud, Claire; Delecluse, Pascale

1993-01-01

Sea level variations of the Indian Ocean north of 20 deg S are analyzed from Geosat satellite altimeter data over April 1985-September 1989. These variations are compared and interpreted with numerical simulations derived from a reduced gravity model forced by FSU observed winds over the same period. After decomposition into complex empirical orthogonal functions, the low-frequency anomalies are described by the first two modes for observations as well as for simulations. The sums of the two modes contain 34% and 40% of the observed and simulated variances, respectively. Averaged over the basin, the observed and simulated sea level changes are correlated by 0.92 over 1985-1988. The strongest change happens during the El Ninio 1986-1987: between winter 1986 and summer 1987 the basin-averaged sea level rises by approx. 1 cm. These low-frequency variations can partly be explained by changes in the Sverdrup circulation. The southern tropical Indian Ocean between 1O deg and 20 deg S is the domain where those changes are strongest: the averaged sea level rises by approx. 4.5 cm between winter 1986 and winter 1987. There, the signal propagates southwestward across the basin at a speed similar to free Rossby waves. Sensitivity of observed anomalies is examined over 1987-1988, with different orbit ephemeris, tropospheric corrections, and error reduction processes. The uncertainty of the basin-averaged sea level estimates is mostly due to the way the orbit error is reduced and reaches approx. 1 cm. Nonetheless, spatial correlation is good between the various observations and better than between observations and simulations. Sensitivity of simulated anomalies to the wind uncertainty, examined with Former Soviet Union (FSU) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) forcings over 1985-1988, shows that the variance of the simulations driven by ECMWF is 52% smaller, as FSU winds are stronger than ECMWF. Results show that the wind strength also affects the dynamic response of the ocean: anomalies propagate westward across the basin more than twice as fast with FSU than with ECMWF. It is found that the discrepancy is larger between ECMWF and FSU simulations than between observations and FSU simulations.

Ice-cover effects on competitive interactions between two fish species.

PubMed

Helland, Ingeborg P; Finstad, Anders G; Forseth, Torbjørn; Hesthagen, Trygve; Ugedal, Ola

2011-05-01

1. Variations in the strength of ecological interactions between seasons have received little attention, despite an increased focus on climate alterations on ecosystems. Particularly, the winter situation is often neglected when studying competitive interactions. In northern temperate freshwaters, winter implies low temperatures and reduced food availability, but also strong reduction in ambient light because of ice and snow cover. Here, we study how brown trout [Salmo trutta (L.)] respond to variations in ice-cover duration and competition with Arctic charr [Salvelinus alpinus (L.)], by linking laboratory-derived physiological performance and field data on variation in abundance among and within natural brown trout populations. 2. Both Arctic charr and brown trout reduced resting metabolic rate under simulated ice-cover (darkness) in the laboratory, compared to no ice (6-h daylight). However, in contrast to brown trout, Arctic charr was able to obtain positive growth rate in darkness and had higher food intake in tank experiments than brown trout. Arctic charr also performed better (lower energy loss) under simulated ice-cover in a semi-natural environment with natural food supply. 3. When comparing brown trout biomass across 190 Norwegian lakes along a climate gradient, longer ice-covered duration decreased the biomass only in lakes where brown trout lived together with Arctic charr. We were not able to detect any effect of ice-cover on brown trout biomass in lakes where brown trout was the only fish species. 4. Similarly, a 25-year time series from a lake with both brown trout and Arctic charr showed that brown trout population growth rate depended on the interaction between ice breakup date and Arctic charr abundance. High charr abundance was correlated with low trout population growth rate only in combination with long winters. 5. In conclusion, the two species differed in performance under ice, and the observed outcome of competition in natural populations was strongly dependent on duration of the ice-covered period. Our study shows that changes in ice phenology may alter species interactions in Northern aquatic systems. Increased knowledge of how adaptations to winter conditions differ among coexisting species is therefore vital for our understanding of ecological impacts of climate change. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Camera-based measurement of respiratory rates is reliable.

PubMed

Becker, Christoph; Achermann, Stefan; Rocque, Mukul; Kirenko, Ihor; Schlack, Andreas; Dreher-Hummel, Thomas; Zumbrunn, Thomas; Bingisser, Roland; Nickel, Christian H

2017-06-01

Respiratory rate (RR) is one of the most important vital signs used to detect whether a patient is in critical condition. It is part of many risk scores and its measurement is essential for triage of patients in emergency departments. It is often not recorded as measurement is cumbersome and time-consuming. We intended to evaluate the accuracy of camera-based measurements as an alternative measurement to the current practice of manual counting. We monitored the RR of healthy male volunteers with a camera-based prototype application and simultaneously by manual counting and by capnography, which was considered the gold standard. The four assessors were mutually blinded. We simulated normoventilation, hypoventilation and hyperventilation as well as deep, normal and superficial breathing depths to assess potential clinical settings. The volunteers were assessed while being undressed, wearing a T-shirt or a winter coat. In total, 20 volunteers were included. The results of camera-based measurements of RRs and capnography were in close agreement throughout all clothing styles and respiratory patterns (Pearson's correlation coefficient, r=0.90-1.00, except for one scenario, in which the volunteer breathed slowly dressed in a winter coat r=0.84). In the winter-coat scenarios, the camera-based prototype application was superior to human counters. In our pilot study, we found that camera-based measurements delivered accurate and reliable results. Future studies need to show that camera-based measurements are a secure alternative for measuring RRs in clinical settings as well.

Conjunction of 2D and 3D modified flow solvers for simulating spatio-temporal wind induced hydrodynamics in the Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad; Sabbagh-Yazdi, Saeed-Reza

2010-06-01

The main objective of this study is the simulation of flow dynamics in the deep parts of the Caspian Sea, in which the southern and middle deep regions are surrounded by considerable areas of shallow zones. To simulate spatio-temporal wind induced hydrodynamics in deep waters, a conjunctive numerical model consisting of a 2D depth average model and a 3D pseudo compressible model is proposed. The 2D model is applied to determine time dependent free surface oscillations as well as the surface velocity patterns and is conjunct to the 3D flow solver for computing three-dimensional velocity and pressure fields which coverage to steady state for the top boundary condition. The modified 2D and 3D sets of equations are conjunct considering interface shear stresses. Both sets of 2D and 3D equations are solved on unstructured triangular and tetrahedral meshes using the Galerkin Finite Volume Method. The conjunctive model is utilized to investigate the deep currents affected by wind, Coriolis forces and the river inflow conditions of the Caspian Sea. In this study, the simulation of flow field due to major winds as well as transient winds in the Caspian Sea during a period of 6 hours in the winter season has been conducted and the numerical results for water surface level are then compared to the 2D numerical results.

Climate scenarios for California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

In all of the simulations, most precipitation continues to occur in winter, with virtually all derived from North Pacific winter storms. Relatively little change in overall precipitation is projected. Climate warming has a profound influence in diminishing snow accumulations, because there is more rain and less snow, and earlier snowmelt. These snow losses increase as the warming increases, so that they are most severe under climate changes projected by the more sensitive model with the higher GHG emissions.

Photochemical modeling and analysis of meteorological parameters during ozone episodes in Kaohsiung, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, K. S.; Ho, Y. T.; Lai, C. H.; Chou, Youn-Min

The events of high ozone concentrations and meteorological conditions covering the Kaohsiung metropolitan area were investigated based on data analysis and model simulation. A photochemical grid model was employed to analyze two ozone episodes in autumn (2000) and winter (2001) seasons, each covering three consecutive days (or 72 h) in the Kaohsiung City. The potential influence of the initial and boundary conditions on model performance was assessed. Model performance can be improved by separately considering the daytime and nighttime ozone concentrations on the lateral boundary conditions of the model domain. The sensitivity analyses of ozone concentrations to the emission reductions in volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NO x) show a VOC-sensitive regime for emission reductions to lower than 30-40% VOC and 30-50% NO x and a NO x-sensitive regime for larger percentage reductions. Meteorological parameters show that warm temperature, sufficient sunlight, low wind, and high surface pressure are distinct parameters that tend to trigger ozone episodes in polluted urban areas, like Kaohsiung.

Polar Processes in a 50-year Simulation of Stratospheric Chemistry and Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawa, S.R.; Douglass, A. R.; Patrick, L. C.; Allen, D. R.; Randall, C. E.

2004-01-01

The unique chemical, dynamical, and microphysical processes that occur in the winter polar lower stratosphere are expected to interact strongly with changing climate and trace gas abundances. Significant changes in ozone have been observed and prediction of future ozone and climate interactions depends on modeling these processes successfully. We have conducted an off-line model simulation of the stratosphere for trace gas conditions representative of 1975-2025 using meteorology from the NASA finite-volume general circulation model. The objective of this simulation is to examine the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone and chemical change to varying meteorology and trace gas inputs. This presentation will examine the dependence of ozone and related processes in polar regions on the climatological and trace gas changes in the model. The model past performance is base-lined against available observations, and a future ozone recovery scenario is forecast. Overall the model ozone simulation is quite realistic, but initial analysis of the detailed evolution of some observable processes suggests systematic shortcomings in our description of the polar chemical rates and/or mechanisms. Model sensitivities, strengths, and weaknesses will be discussed with implications for uncertainty and confidence in coupled climate chemistry predictions.

An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Dengue Transmission in the Southeastern United States.

PubMed

Butterworth, Melinda K; Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C

2017-04-01

Dengue fever, caused by a mosquito-transmitted virus, is an increasing health concern in the Americas. Meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation can affect disease distribution and abundance through biophysical impacts on the vector and on the virus. Such tightly coupled links may facilitate further spread of dengue fever under a changing climate. In the southeastern United States, the dengue vector is widely established and exists on the current fringe of dengue transmission. We assessed projected climate change-driven shifts in dengue transmission risk in this region. We used a dynamic mosquito population and virus transmission model driven by meteorological data to simulate Aedes aegypti populations and dengue cases in 23 locations in the southeastern United States under current climate conditions and future climate projections. We compared estimates for each location with simulations based on observed data from San Juan, Puerto Rico, where dengue is endemic. Our simulations based on current climate data suggest that dengue transmission at levels similar to those in San Juan is possible at several U.S. locations during the summer months, particularly in southern Florida and Texas. Simulations that include climate change projections suggest that conditions may become suitable for virus transmission in a larger number of locations and for a longer period of time during each year. However, in contrast with San Juan, U.S. locations would not sustain year-round dengue transmission according to our model. Our findings suggest that Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is limited by low winter temperatures in the mainland United States, which are likely to prevent its permanent establishment. Although future climate conditions may increase the length of the mosquito season in many locations, projected increases in dengue transmission are limited to the southernmost locations.

Evaluation of local versus remote areas of CH4 sources at IC3 stations using a combined analysis of 222Rn tracer and Atmospheric Particles Transport Model (APTM) results. Application at the Gredos and Iruelas station (GIC3), Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossi, Claudia; Morguí, Josep Anton; Curcoll, Roger; Àgueda, Alba; Arnold, Delia; Batet, Oscar; Cañas, Lidia; Nofuentes, Manel; Occhipinti, Paola; Vogel, Felix; Vargas, Arturo; Rodó, Xavier

2014-05-01

The Gredos and Iruelas station (GIC3) is part of the IC3 (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima) atmospheric monitoring network. This station is located in the Gredos Natural Park (40.22º N; -5.14º E) in the Spanish central plateau. The IC3 network consists of 8 stations distributed across Spain. It has been developed with the aim of studying climatic processes and the responses of impacted systems at different temporal and spatial scales. Since 2012, CO2, CH4, 222Rn (a natural radioactive gas) and meteorological variables are continuously measured at GIC3 at 20 m a.g.l. (1100 m a.s.l.). Furthermore, 4-days backward simulations are run daily for each IC3 station using the FLEXPART model. Simulations use ECMWF meteorological data as input and a horizontal spatial resolution of 0.2 degrees. The Laboratory of the Atmosphere and the Oceans (LAO) of the IC3 has elaborated a new approach to evaluate the local or remote greenhouse gases emissions using the radon gas as tracer and the atmospheric particles transport model FLEXPART under nocturnal and winter conditions. The ratios between the normalized and rescaled measured concentrations of CH4 and 222Rn during nocturnal hours (21h, 00h, 03h and 06h) and in the winter season, in order to reduce local radon flux and methane source due to seasonal livestock migration and to get stable atmospheric conditions, have been analyzed in relation to the influence of the local area (set to an initial dimension of 20x20 km2). The influence area (IA) has been defined as the percentage of the ratio between the residence time of the fictitious particles released in FLEXPART simulations over the area of interest (TLocal Area) and the residence time of these fictitious particles over the total area included in the simulation (TTotal Area ), i.e. IA = (TLocal Area/TTotal Area * 100). First results considering an area of interest of 20x20 km2 show a linear increase of the radon concentration with IA until reaching a maximum when IA is about 50%. This can be explained taking into consideration that GIC3 station area has high radon exhalation rates according to the literature and the radon uptake from air masses can reach a plateau. On the other hand, CH4 concentrations do not seem to be significantly influenced by IA. The log-log plot between the ratio of normalized and rescaled gases concentrations (CH4/222Rn) and the percentage of the influence of the local area shows a negative linear relation under nocturnal and winter conditions which could depend on the increase of the radon not compensated by the methane increase. Indeed, when the influence of the local area of Gredos and Iruelas station is under the 20% the major methane contribution seems to come from outside the 20x20 km2 IA. Results considering a larger area of interest (up to 80x80 km2) may indicate possible methane sources detected at the GIC3 station.

Survival of female northern pintails wintering in southwestern Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cox, R.R.; Afton, A.D.; Pace, R. M.

1998-01-01

The North American breeding population of northern pintails (Anas acuta) has reached previously unprecedented low numbers 4 times since 1983. Because pintails show high fidelity to wintering areas, regional survival estimates and identification of factors influencing survival are needed to guide management of wintering pintails. We used raidiotelemetry to estimate survival rates of female pintails wintering in southwestern Lousiaina. We tested for variation in survival and hunting mortality rates in realtiaon to age (immature or adult), winter (1990-91, 1991-92, 1992-93), time period (prehunting season, first hunting season, time between split hunting seasons, second hunting season, posthunting season), body condition (body mass when released, adjusted for body size), and region (southwestern Louisiana or elsewhere on the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast or Mississippi Alluvial Valley).

Improving the freight transportation roadway system during snow events : a performance evaluation of deicing chemicals.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-05-01

The ability of state DOTs to adequately clear roadways during winter weather conditions is critical for a safe and effective : freight transportation system. Variables affecting winter maintenance operations include the type of precipitation, air and...

Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Ruping; Joe, Paul I.; Doyle, Chris; Whitfield, Paul H.

2014-01-01

A brief review of the anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and the efforts to predict these anomalies based on some preceding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are presented. It is shown that the Olympic Games were held under extraordinarily warm conditions in February 2010, with monthly mean temperature anomalies of +2.2 °C in Vancouver and +2.8 °C in Whistler, ranking respectively as the highest and the second highest in the past 30 years (1981-2010). The warm conditions continued, but became less anomalous, in March 2010 for the Paralympic Games. While the precipitation amounts in the area remained near normal through this winter, the lack of snow due to warm conditions created numerous media headlines and practical problems for the alpine competitions. A statistical model was developed on the premise that February and March temperatures in the Vancouver area could be predicted using an ENSO signal with considerable lead time. This model successfully predicted the warmer-than-normal, lower-snowfall conditions for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics.

Are winter and summer dormancy symmetrical seasonal adaptive strategies? The case of temperate herbaceous perennials

PubMed Central

Gillespie, Lauren M.; Volaire, Florence A.

2017-01-01

Background Dormancy in higher plants is an adaptive response enabling plant survival during the harshest seasons and has been more explored in woody species than in herbaceous species. Nevertheless, winter and summer shoot meristem dormancy are adaptive strategies that could play a major role in enhancing seasonal stress tolerance and resilience of widespread herbaceous plant communities. Scope This review outlines the symmetrical aspects of winter and summer dormancy in order to better understand plant adaptation to severe stress, and highlight research priorities in a changing climate. Seasonal dormancy is a good model to explore the growth–stress survival trade-off and unravel the relationships between growth potential and stress hardiness. Although photoperiod and temperature are known to play a crucial, though reversed, role in the induction and release of both types of dormancy, the thresholds and combined effects of these environmental factors remain to be identified. The biochemical compounds involved in induction or release in winter dormancy (abscisic acid, ethylene, sugars, cytokinins and gibberellins) could be a priority research focus for summer dormancy. To address these research priorities, herbaceous species, being more tractable than woody species, are excellent model plants for which both summer and winter dormancy have been clearly identified. Conclusions Summer and winter dormancy, although responding to inverse conditions, share many characteristics. This analogous nature can facilitate research as well as lead to insight into plant adaptations to extreme conditions and the evolution of phenological patterns of species and communities under climate change. The development of phenotypes showing reduced winter and/or enhanced summer dormancy may be expected and could improve adaptation to less predictable environmental stresses correlated with future climates. To this end, it is suggested to explore the inter- and intraspecific genotypic variability of dormancy and its plasticity according to environmental conditions to contribute to predicting and mitigating global warming. PMID:28087658

Stationary Waves of the Ice Age Climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Kerry H.; Held, Isaac M.

1988-08-01

A linearized, steady state, primitive equation model is used to simulate the climatological zonal asymmetries (stationary eddies) in the wind and temperature fields of the 18 000 YBP climate during winter. We compare these results with the eddies simulated in the ice age experiments of Broccoli and Manabe, who used CLIMAP boundary conditions and reduced atmospheric CO2 in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled with a static mixed layer ocean model. The agreement between the models is good, indicating that the linear model can be used to evaluate the relative influences of orography, diabatic heating, and transient eddy heat and momentum transports in generating stationary waves. We find that orographic forcing dominates in the ice age climate. The mechanical influence of the continental ice sheets on the atmosphere is responsible for most of the changes between the present day and ice age stationary eddies. This concept of the ice age climate is complicated by the sensitivity of the stationary eddies to the large increase in the magnitude of the zonal mean meridional temperature gradient simulated in the ice age GCM.

Life-history dependent relationships between body condition and immunity, between immunity indices in male Eurasian tree sparrows.

PubMed

Zhao, Yuliang; Li, Mo; Sun, Yanfeng; Wu, Wei; Kou, Guanqun; Guo, Lingling; Xing, Danning; Wu, Yuefeng; Li, Dongming; Zhao, Baohua

2017-08-01

In free-living animals, recent evidence indicates that innate, and acquired, immunity varies with annual variation in the demand for, and availability of, food resources. However, little is known about how animals adjust the relationships between immunity and body condition, and between innate and acquired immunity to optimize survival over winter and reproductive success during the breeding stage. Here, we measured indices of body condition (size-corrected mass [SCM], and hematocrit [Hct]), constitutive innate immunity (plasma total complement hemolysis activity [CH 50 ]) and acquired immunity (plasma immunoglobulin A [IgA]), plus heterophil/lymphocyte (H/L) ratios, in male Eurasian tree sparrows (Passer montanus) during the wintering and the breeding stages. We found that birds during the wintering stage had higher IgA levels than those from the breeding stage. Two indices of body condition were both negatively correlated with plasma CH 50 activities, and positively with IgA levels in wintering birds, but this was not the case in the breeding birds. However, there was no correlation between CH 50 activities and IgA levels in both stages. These results suggest that the relationships between body condition and immunity can vary across life-history stage, and there are no correlations between innate and acquired immunity independent of life-history stage, in male Eurasian tree sparrows. Therefore, body condition indices predict immunological state, especially during the non-breeding stage, which can be useful indicators of individual immunocompetences for understanding the variations in innate and acquired immunity in free-living animals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Response of ice cover on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska to contemporary climate conditions (1950-2011): radar remote sensing and numerical modeling data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surdu, C. M.; Duguay, C. R.; Brown, L. C.; Fernández Prieto, D.

2013-07-01

Air temperature and winter precipitation changes over the last five decades have impacted the timing, duration, and thickness of the ice cover on Arctic lakes as shown by recent studies. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3 m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in thinner ice covers and consequently, to a smaller fraction of lakes freezing to their bed in winter. However, these changes have not yet been comprehensively documented. The analysis of a 20 yr time series of ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and a numerical lake ice model were employed to determine the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to the bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) to climate conditions over the last six decades. Analysis of available SAR data from 1991-2011, from a sub-region of the NSA near Barrow, shows a reduction in the fraction of lakes that freeze to the bed in late winter. This finding is in good agreement with the decrease in ice thickness simulated with the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo), a lower fraction of lakes frozen to the bed corresponding to a thinner ice cover. Observed changes of the ice cover show a trend toward increasing floating ice fractions from 1991 to 2011, with the greatest change occurring in April, when the grounded ice fraction declined by 22% (α = 0.01). Model results indicate a trend toward thinner ice covers by 18-22 cm (no-snow and 53% snow depth scenarios, α = 0.01) during the 1991-2011 period and by 21-38 cm (α = 0.001) from 1950-2011. The longer trend analysis (1950-2011) also shows a decrease in the ice cover duration by ∼24 days consequent to later freeze-up dates by 5.9 days (α = 0.1) and earlier break-up dates by 17.7-18.6 days (α = 0.001).

Polynya dynamics and associated atmospheric forcing at the Ronne Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, Lars; Heinemann, Günther

2014-05-01

The Ronne Ice Shelf is known as one of the most active regions of polynya developments around the Antarctic continent. Low temperatures are prevailing throughout the whole year, particularly in winter. It is generally recognized that polynya formations are primarily forced by offshore winds and secondarily by ocean currents. Many authors have addressed this issue previously at the Ross Ice Shelf and Adélie Coast and connected polynya dynamics to strong katabatic surge events. Such investigations of atmospheric dynamics and simultaneous polynya occurrence are still severely underrepresented for the southwestern part of the Weddell Sea and especially for the Ronne Ice Shelf. Due to the very flat terrain gradients of the ice shelf katabatic winds are of minor importance in that area. Other atmospheric processes must therefore play a crucial role for polynya developments at the Ronne Ice Shelf. High-resolution simulations have been carried out for the Weddell Sea region using the non-hydrostatic NWP model COSMO from the German Meteorological Service (DWD). For the austral autumn and winter (March to August) 2008 daily forecast simulations were conducted with the consideration of daily sea-ice coverage deduced from the passive microwave system AMSR-E. These simulations are used to analyze the synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric dynamics of the Weddell Sea region and find linkages to polynya occurrence at the Ronne Ice Shelf. For that reason, the relation between the surface wind speed, the synoptic pressure gradient in the free atmosphere and polynya area is investigated. Seven significant polynya events are identified for the simulation period, three in the autumn and four in the winter season. It can be shown that in almost all cases synoptic cyclones are the primary polynya forcing systems. In most cases the timely interaction of several passing cyclones in the northern and central Weddell Sea leads to maintenance of a strong synoptic pressure gradient above the Ronne Ice Shelf. This strong synoptic forcing results in a moderate to strong offshore surface wind. It turned out that these synoptic depressions lead to strong barrier winds above the northwestern Ronne Ice Shelf and along the eastern flank of the Antarctic Peninsula. The fact, that these barrier winds often appear prior or during the initial break up of sea ice at the shelf ice edge, suggest that this mesoscale wind phenomenon plays a crucial role for polynya development. Furthermore, even mesoscale cyclogenesis above the Ronne Ice Shelf and the following northeastward passage of such a system can break up sea-ice cover under large-scale stationary weather conditions.

Large Scale Drivers for the Extreme Storm Season over the North Atlantic and the UK in Winter 2013-14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Simon; Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

The British Isles experienced exceptional stormy and rainy weather conditions in winter 2013-2014 while large parts of central North America recorded near record minimum surface temperatures values. Potential drivers for these cold conditions include increasingly warm surface waters of the tropical west Pacific. It has been suggested these increasing sea surface temperatures could also be the cause for extreme weather over the Europe, particularly the UK. Testing this hypothesis, we investigate mechanisms linking the tropical west Pacific and European wind storm activity. We will firstly analyse anomaly patterns along such a potential link in winter 2013-14. Secondly, we will investigate whether these identified anomaly patterns show a strong interannual relationship in the recent past. Our results, using primarily ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 to 2014, show an absolute maximum of wind storm frequency over the northeast Atlantic and the British Isles in winter 2013-14. We also find absolute minimum surface temperatures in central North America and increased convective activity over the tropical west Pacific in the same season. The winter 2013-14 was additionally characterized by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical northwest Atlantic. Although the interannual variability of wind storms in the northeast Atlantic and surface temperatures in North America are significantly anti-correlated, we cannot directly relate wind storm frequency with tropical west Pacific anomalies. We thus conclude that the conditions over the Pacific in winter 2013-14 were favourable but not sufficient to explain the record number of wind storms in this season. Instead, we suggest that warm north Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies in combination with cold surface temperatures over North America played a more important role for generating higher wind storm counts over the northeast Atlantic and the UK.

Condition of Euphausia crystallorophias off East Antarctica in winter in comparison to other seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicol, S.; Virtue, P.; King, R.; Davenport, S. R.; McGaffin, A. F.; Nichols, P.

2004-08-01

Antarctic coastal krill ( Euphausia crystallorophias) were collected in Austral winter (July/August) 1999 in the Mertz Glacier polynya off the coast of East Antarctica and were compared to krill collected off East Antarctica during summer in 1996 and 2001 and spring 1999. A range of experiments and measurements were conducted to assess their relative condition in winter and summer. Krill collected in winter had pale yellow-green digestive glands, indicating some recent feeding activity. The size of the digestive glands was small relative to those of krill caught in summer. This indicates that feeding had been occurring at low levels during the collection period. Growth rates, measured using the instantaneous growth rate methodology, were close to zero in winter (range -5% to 7% per moult). This was an indication that some food had been available during the period of the moult cycle. Growth rates in spring ranged from -0.5% to +8.7% per moult and from 4% to 12% per moult in the summer. The mean length of the winter moult cycle (68 days) was considerably greater than the measured intermoult period in summer and spring (24-33 days). Lipid levels were low in winter, less than 5% of body weight, compared to summer levels of ˜15% (dry weight). Winter krill were richer in wax esters and poorer in polar lipids than specimens collected in summer. Krill in winter were lacking in C16 PUFA that are markers of the phytoplankton diet common in summer krill. Krill caught in the winter had significantly higher levels of 20:1 and 22:1 fatty acids (2.3%) and alcohols (8.1%) than krill sampled in summer (0.2%, 0%), indicating a shift to a carnivorous diet. Results from this study suggest that E. crystallorophias respond to low food abundance during the winter through metabolic and physiological processes. These processes were reflected in a decrease in growth rate and a significant increase in the intermoult period. The process of lipid utilisation and switching to a carnivorous/detrital type diet are also overwintering strategies employed by this species.

Ice duration drives winter nitrate accumulation in north temperate lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powers, Steven M; Labou, Stephanie G.; Baulch, Helen M.; Hunt, Randall J.; Lottig, Noah R.; Hampton, Stephanie E.; Stanley, Emily H.

2017-01-01

The duration of winter ice cover on lakes varies substantially with climate variability, and has decreased over the last several decades in many temperate lakes. However, little is known of how changes in seasonal ice cover may affect biogeochemical processes under ice. We examined winter nitrogen (N) dynamics under ice using a 30+ yr dataset from five oligotrophic/mesotrophic north temperate lakes to determine how changes in inorganic N species varied with ice duration. Nitrate accumulated during winter and was strongly related to the number of days since ice-on. Exogenous inputs accounted for less than 3% of nitrate accumulation in four of the five lakes, suggesting a paramount role of nitrification in regulating N transformation and the timing of chemical conditions under ice. Winter nitrate accumulation rates ranged from 0.15 μg N L−1 d−1 to 2.7 μg N L−1 d−1 (0.011–0.19 μM d−1), and the mean for intermediate depths was 0.94 μg N L−1 d−1(0.067 μM d−1). Given that winters with shorter ice duration (< 120 d) have become more frequent in these lakes since the late 1990s, peak winter nitrate concentrations and cumulative nitrate production under ice may be declining. As ice extent and duration change, the physical and chemical conditions supporting life will shift. This research suggests we may expect changes in the form and amount of inorganic N, and altered dissolved nitrogen : phosphorus ratios, in lakes during winters with shorter ice duration.

Portuguese Man-of-War (Physalia physalis) in the Mediterranean: A permanent invasion or a casual appearance?

PubMed

Prieto, L; Macías, D; Peliz, A; Ruiz, J

2015-06-25

In 2010, the Mediterranean basin experienced Portuguese Man-of-War (Physalia physalis) swarms that had dramatic consequences, including the region's first recorded human fatality attributed to a jellyfish sting. Despite the impact of jellyfish on coastal economic activity and the importance of the tourism industry for the Mediterranean region (accounting for 15% of global tourism), no scientific consensus has been achieved regarding the causes of this episode. Here, we analyse the meteorological and oceanographic conditions of the North-East Atlantic Ocean during the months previous to the appearance of P. physalis in the Mediterranean. We simulate the probable drift of Atlantic populations into the Mediterranean basin with a numerical model and compare model results with available observations. We conclude that the summer 2010 P. Physalis swarm was the result of an unusual combination of meteorological and oceanographic conditions during the previous winter and not a permanent invasion favoured by climatic changes.

Thermal Energy Exchange Model and Water Loss of a Barrel Cactus, Ferocactus acanthodes1

PubMed Central

Lewis, Donald A.; Nobel, Park S.

1977-01-01

The influences of various diurnal stomatal opening patterns, spines, and ribs on the stem surface temperature and water economy of a CAM succulent, the barrel cactus Ferocactus acanthodes, were examined using an energy budget model. To incorporate energy exchanges by shortwave and longwave irradiation, latent heat, conduction, and convection as well as the heat storage in the massive stem, the plant was subdivided into over 100 internal and external regions in the model. This enabled the average surface temperature to be predicted within 1 C of the measured temperature for both winter and summer days. Reducing the stem water vapor conductance from the values observed in the field to zero caused the average daily stem surface temperature to increase only 0.7 C for a winter day and 0.3 C for a summer day. Thus, latent heat loss does not substantially reduce stem temperature. Although the surface temperatures averaged 18 C warmer for the summer day than for the winter day for a plant 41 cm tall, the temperature dependence of stomatal opening caused the simulated nighttime water loss rates to be about the same for the 2 days. Spines moderated the amplitude of the diurnal temperature changes of the stem surface, since the daily variation was 17 C for the winter day and 25 C for the summer day with spines compared with 23 C and 41 C, respectively, in their simulated absence. Ribs reduced the daytime temperature rise by providing 54% more area for convective heat loss than for a smooth circumscribing surface. In a simulation where both spines and ribs were eliminated, the daytime average surface temperature rose by 5 C. PMID:16660148

Accumulation of biomass and bioenergy in culms of cereals as a factor of straw cutting height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zając, Tomasz; Synowiec, Agnieszka; Oleksy, Andrzej; Macuda, Jan; Klimek-Kopyra, Agnieszka; Borowiec, Franciszek

2017-04-01

Cereal straw is an important biomass source in Europe. This work assessed: 1) the morphological and energetic characteristics of culms of spring and winter cereals, 2) the energy deposited in the different aboveground parts of cereals, 3) losses of energy due to different cutting heights. The straw of winter and spring cereals was collected from arable fields during the seasons 2009/10 and 2010/11 in southern Poland. Detailed biometric measurements of culms and internodes were performed. The losses of straw biomass and energy were assessed during simulation of cutting the culm at different heights, up to 50 cm. Longer and heavier culms were developed by winter wheat and triticale and oat. Cutting of straw up to 10 cm did not lead to significant losses in straw yield. The total amount of energy in the culms was as follows: triticale > winter wheat > oat > spring wheat > winter barley > spring barley. Cutting the culms above 20 cm led to significant differences in terms of biomass energy between cereal species. The smallest losses of energy were recorded for spring and winter barley. Oat and barley accumulated the highest energy in grains.

Re-emerging ocean temperature anomalies in late-2010 associated with a repeat negative NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taws, Sarah L.; Marsh, Robert; Wells, Neil C.; Hirschi, Joël

2011-10-01

Northern Europe was influenced by consecutive episodes of extreme winter weather at the start and end of the 2010 calendar year. A tripole pattern in North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), associated with an exceptionally negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), characterized both winter periods. This pattern was largely absent at the surface during the 2010 summer season; however equivalent sub-surface temperature anomalies were preserved within the seasonal thermocline throughout the year. Here, we present evidence for the re-emergence of late-winter 2009/10 SSTAs during the following early winter season of 2010/11. The observed re-emergence contributes toward the winter-to-winter persistence of the anomalous tripole pattern. Considering the active influence of the oceans upon leading modes of atmospheric circulation over seasonal timescales, associated with the memory of large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns, the re-emergence of remnant temperature anomalies may have also contributed toward the persistence of a negative winter NAO, and the recurrence of extreme wintry conditions over the initial 2010/11 winter season.

Modeling polar cap F-region patches using time varying convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sojka, J. J.; Bowline, M. D.; Schunk, R. W.; Decker, D. T.; Valladares, C. E.; Sheehan, R.; Anderson, D. N.; Heelis, R. A.

1993-01-01

Creation of polar cap F-region patches are simulated for the first time using two independent physical models of the high latitude ionosphere. The patch formation is achieved by temporally varying the magnetospheric electric field (ionospheric convection) input to the models. The imposed convection variations are comparable to changes in the convection that result from changes in the B(y) IMF component for southward IMF. Solar maximum-winter simulations show that simple changes in the convection pattern lead to significant changes in the polar cap plasma structuring. Specifically, in winter, as enhanced dayside plasma convects into the polar cap to form the classic tongue-of-ionization the convection changes produce density structures that are indistinguishable from the observed patches.

Geographic variation in winter adaptations of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gigliotti, Laura C.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Sheriff, M.J.

2017-01-01

Understanding adaptations of nonhibernating northern endotherms to cope with extreme cold is important because climate-induced changes in winter temperatures and snow cover are predicted to impact these species the most. We compared winter pelage characteristics and heat production of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus Erxleben, 1777) on the southern edge of their range, in Pennsylvania (USA), to a northern population, in the Yukon (Canada), to investigate how hares might respond to changing environmental conditions. We also investigated how hares in Pennsylvania altered movement rates and resting spot selection to cope with variable winter temperatures. Hares from Pennsylvania had shorter, less dense, and less white winter coats than their northern counterparts, suggesting lower coat insulation. Hares in the southern population had lower pelage temperatures, indicating that they produced less heat than those in the northern population. In addition, hares in Pennsylvania did not select for resting spots that offered thermal advantages, but selected locations offering visual obstruction from predators. Movement rates were associated with ambient temperature, with the smallest movements occurring at the lower and upper range of observed ambient temperatures. Our results indicate that snowshoe hares may be able to adapt to future climate conditions via changes in pelage characteristics, metabolism, and behavior.

Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Switanek, Matthew; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo; Brodschneider, Robert

2017-02-01

Insect pollinators are essential to global food production. For this reason, it is alarming that honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations across the world have recently seen increased rates of mortality. These changes in colony mortality are often ascribed to one or more factors including parasites, diseases, pesticides, nutrition, habitat dynamics, weather and/or climate. However, the effect of climate on colony mortality has never been demonstrated. Therefore, in this study, we focus on longer-term weather conditions and/or climate's influence on honey bee winter mortality rates across Austria. Statistical correlations between monthly climate variables and winter mortality rates were investigated. Our results indicate that warmer and drier weather conditions in the preceding year were accompanied by increased winter mortality. We subsequently built a statistical model to predict colony mortality using temperature and precipitation data as predictors. Our model reduces the mean absolute error between predicted and observed colony mortalities by 9% and is statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. This is the first study to show clear evidence of a link between climate variability and honey bee winter mortality. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling seasonal migration of fall armyworm moths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westbrook, J. K.; Nagoshi, R. N.; Meagher, R. L.; Fleischer, S. J.; Jairam, S.

2016-02-01

Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), is a highly mobile insect pest of a wide range of host crops. However, this pest of tropical origin cannot survive extended periods of freezing temperature but must migrate northward each spring if it is to re-infest cropping areas in temperate regions. The northward limit of the winter-breeding region for North America extends to southern regions of Texas and Florida, but infestations are regularly reported as far north as Québec and Ontario provinces in Canada by the end of summer. Recent genetic analyses have characterized migratory pathways from these winter-breeding regions, but knowledge is lacking on the atmosphere's role in influencing the timing, distance, and direction of migratory flights. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used to simulate migratory flight of fall armyworm moths from distinct winter-breeding source areas. Model simulations identified regions of dominant immigration from the Florida and Texas source areas and overlapping immigrant populations in the Alabama-Georgia and Pennsylvania-Mid-Atlantic regions. This simulated migratory pattern corroborates a previous migratory map based on the distribution of fall armyworm haplotype profiles. We found a significant regression between the simulated first week of moth immigration and first week of moth capture (for locations which captured ≥10 moths), which on average indicated that the model simulated first immigration 2 weeks before first captures in pheromone traps. The results contribute to knowledge of fall armyworm population ecology on a continental scale and will aid in the prediction and interpretation of inter-annual variability of insect migration patterns including those in response to climatic change and adoption rates of transgenic cultivars.

Record-breaking ozone loss in the Arctic winter 2010/2011: comparison with 1996/1997

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttippurath, J.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Lefèvre, F.; Nikulin, G.; Santee, M. L.; Froidevaux, L.

2012-03-01

We present a detailed discussion of the chemical and dynamical processes in the Arctic winters 1996/1997 and 2010/2011 with high resolution chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and space-based observations. In the Arctic winter 2010/2011, the lower stratospheric minimum temperatures were below 195 K for a record period, from December to mid-April, and a strong and stable vortex was present during that period. Analyses with the Mimosa-Chim CTM simulations show that the chemical ozone loss started by early January and progressed slowly to 1 ppmv (parts per million by volume) by late February. The loss intensified by early March and reached a record maximum of ~2.4 ppmv in the late March-early April period over a broad altitude range of 450-550 K. This coincides with elevated ozone loss rates of 2-4 ppbv sh-1 (parts per billion by volume/sunlit hour) and a contribution of about 40% from the ClO-ClO cycle and about 35-40% from the ClO-BrO cycle in late February and March, and about 30-50% from the HOx cycle in April. We also estimate a loss of around 0.7-1.2 ppmv contributed (75%) by the NOx cycle at 550-700 K. The ozone loss estimated in the partial column range of 350-550 K also exhibits a record value of ~148 DU (Dobson Unit). This is the largest ozone loss ever estimated in the Arctic and is consistent with the remarkable chlorine activation and strong denitrification (40-50%) during the winter, as the modeled ClO shows ~1.8 ppbv in early January and ~1 ppbv in March at 450-550 K. These model results are in excellent agreement with those found from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Our analyses also show that the ozone loss in 2010/2011 is close to that found in some Antarctic winters, for the first time in the observed history. Though the winter 1996/1997 was also very cold in March-April, the temperatures were higher in December-February, and, therefore, chlorine activation was moderate and ozone loss was average with about 1.2 ppmv at 475-550 K or 42 DU at 350-550 K, as diagnosed from the model simulations and measurements.