Impact of dynamic vegetation phenology on the simulated pan-Arctic land surface state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teufel, Bernardo; Sushama, Laxmi; Arora, Vivek K.; Verseghy, Diana

2018-03-01

The pan-Arctic land surface is undergoing rapid changes in a warming climate, with near-surface permafrost projected to degrade significantly during the twenty-first century. Vegetation-related feedbacks have the potential to influence the rate of degradation of permafrost. In this study, the impact of dynamic phenology on the pan-Arctic land surface state, particularly near-surface permafrost, for the 1961-2100 period, is assessed by comparing two simulations of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS)—one with dynamic phenology, modelled using the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM), and the other with prescribed phenology. These simulations are forced by atmospheric data from a transient climate change simulation of the 5th generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Comparison of the CLASS coupled to CTEM simulation to available observational estimates of plant area index, spatial distribution of permafrost and active layer thickness suggests that the model captures reasonably well the overall distribution of vegetation and permafrost. It is shown that the most important impact of dynamic phenology on the land surface occurs through albedo and it is demonstrated for the first time that vegetation control on albedo during late spring and early summer has the highest potential to impact the degradation of permafrost. While both simulations show extensive near-surface permafrost degradation by the end of the twenty-first century, the strong projected response of vegetation to climate warming and increasing CO2 concentrations in the coupled simulation results in accelerated permafrost degradation in the northernmost continuous permafrost regions.

Modeling the effects of LID practices on streams health at watershed scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shannak, S.; Jaber, F. H.

2013-12-01

Increasing impervious covers due to urbanization will lead to an increase in runoff volumes, and eventually increase flooding. Stream channels adjust by widening and eroding stream bank which would impact downstream property negatively (Chin and Gregory, 2001). Also, urban runoff drains in sediment bank areas in what's known as riparian zones and constricts stream channels (Walsh, 2009). Both physical and chemical factors associated with urbanization such as high peak flows and low water quality further stress aquatic life and contribute to overall biological condition of urban streams (Maxted et al., 1995). While LID practices have been mentioned and studied in literature for stormwater management, they have not been studied in respect to reducing potential impact on stream health. To evaluate the performance and the effectiveness of LID practices at a watershed scale, sustainable detention pond, bioretention, and permeable pavement will be modeled at watershed scale. These measures affect the storm peak flows and base flow patterns over long periods, and there is a need to characterize their effect on stream bank and bed erosion, and aquatic life. These measures will create a linkage between urban watershed development and stream conditions specifically biological health. The first phase of this study is to design and construct LID practices at the Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center-Dallas, TX to collect field data about the performance of these practices on a smaller scale. The second phase consists of simulating the performance of LID practices on a watershed scale. This simulation presents a long term model (23 years) using SWAT to evaluate the potential impacts of these practices on; potential stream bank and bed erosion, and potential impact on aquatic life in the Blunn Watershed located in Austin, TX. Sub-daily time step model simulations will be developed to simulate the effectiveness of the three LID practices with respect to reducing potential erosion from stream beds and banks by studying annual average excess shear and reducing potential impact on aquatic life by studying rapid changes and variation in flow regimes in urban streams. This study will contribute to develop a methodology that evaluates the impact of hydrological changes that occur due to urban development, on aquatic life, stream bank and bed erosion. This is an ongoing research project and results will be shared and discussed at the conference.

Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Kim, Han-Yong; Ko, Jonghan; Kang, Suchel; Tenhunen, John

2013-02-01

The crop simulation model is a suitable tool for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on crop production and on the environment. This study investigates the effects of climate change on paddy rice production in the temperate climate regions under the East Asian monsoon system using the CERES-Rice 4.0 crop simulation model. This model was first calibrated and validated for crop production under elevated CO2 and various temperature conditions. Data were obtained from experiments performed using a temperature gradient field chamber (TGFC) with a CO2 enrichment system installed at Chonnam National University in Gwangju, Korea in 2009 and 2010. Based on the empirical calibration and validation, the model was applied to deliver a simulated forecast of paddy rice production for the region, as well as for the other Japonica rice growing regions in East Asia, projecting for years 2050 and 2100. In these climate change projection simulations in Gwangju, Korea, the yield increases (+12.6 and + 22.0%) due to CO2 elevation were adjusted according to temperature increases showing variation dependent upon the cultivars, which resulted in significant yield decreases (-22.1% and -35.0%). The projected yields were determined to increase as latitude increases due to reduced temperature effects, showing the highest increase for any of the study locations (+24%) in Harbin, China. It appears that the potential negative impact on crop production may be mediated by appropriate cultivar selection and cultivation changes such as alteration of the planting date. Results reported in this study using the CERES-Rice 4.0 model demonstrate the promising potential for its further application in simulating the impacts of climate change on rice production from a local to a regional scale under the monsoon climate system. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

United States Air Force Training Line Simulator. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nauta, Franz; Pierce, Michael B.

This report describes the technical aspects and potential applications of a computer-based model simulating the flow of airmen through basic training and entry-level technical training. The objective of the simulation is to assess the impacts of alternative recruit classification and training policies under a wide variety of assumptions regarding…

Simulation Software's Effect on College Students Spreadsheet Project Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atkinson, J. Kirk; Thrasher, Evelyn H.; Coleman, Phillip D.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study is to explore the potential impact of support materials on student spreadsheet skill acquisition. Specifically, this study examines the use of an online spreadsheet simulation tool versus a printed book across two independent student groups. This study hypothesizes that the online spreadsheet simulation tool will have a…

An Investigation of the Potential of Interactive Simulations for Developing System Thinking Skills in Elementary School: A Case Study with Fifth-Graders and Sixth-Graders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Evagorou, Maria; Korfiatis, Kostas; Nicolaou, Christiana; Constantinou, Costas

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of a simulation-based learning environment on elementary school students' (11-12 years old) development of system thinking skills. The learning environment included interactive simulations using the Stagecast Creator software to simulate the ecosystem of a marsh. Simulations are an important…

Simulation of Halocarbon Production and Emissions and Effects on Ozone Depletion

PubMed

Holmes; Ellis

1997-09-01

/ This paper describes an integrated model that simulates future halocarbon production/emissions and potential ozone depletion. Applications and historical production levels for various halocarbons are discussed first. A framework is then presented for modeling future halocarbon impacts incorporating differences in underlying demands, applications, regulatory mandates, and environmental characteristics. The model is used to simulate the potential impacts of several prominent issues relating to halocarbon production, regulation, and environmental interactions, notably: changes in agricultural methyl bromide use, increases in effectiveness of bromine for ozone depletion, modifications to the elimination schedule for HCFCs, short-term expansion of CFC demand in low use compliance countries, and delays in Russian Federation compliance. Individually, each issue does not unequivocally represent a significant likely increase in long-term atmospheric halogen loading and stratospheric ozone depletion. In combination, however, these impacts could increase peak halogen concentrations and long-term integral halogen loading, resulting in higher levels of stratospheric ozone depletion and longer exposure to increased levels of UV radiation.KEY WORDS: Halocarbons; Ozone depletion; Montreal Protocol; Integrated assessment

Simulating pesticide impacts on horned larks: a study in scaling from fields and flocks to populations and landscapes

EPA Science Inventory

Balancing the potential ecological impacts of anthropogenic stressors with the need to optimize food production, as in the case of agricultural pesticide use, creates enormous practical challenges for regulators. Concerns that compounds are impacting legally protected species ar...

Environmental effects on FOD resistance of composite fan blade

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, G. C.; Selemme, C. T.

1981-01-01

The sensitivity of the impact characteristics of typical polymeric composite fan blade materials to potential limiting combinations of moisture, temperature level and temperature transients was established. The following four technical tasks are reported: (1) evaluation and characterization of constituent blade materials; (2) ballistic impact tests; (3) leading edge impact protection systems; and (4) simulated blade spin impact tests.

Regional hydrological models for distributed flash-floods forecasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Pons, Frederic; Moncoulon, David

2016-04-01

Hydrometeorological forecasting is an essential component of real-time flood management. The information it provides is of great help for crisis managers to anticipate the inundations and the associated risks. In the particular case of flash-floods, which may affect a large amount of small watersheds spread over the territory (up to 300 000 km of waterways considering a drained area of 5 km² minimum in France), appropriate flood forecasting systems are still under development. In France, highly distributed hydrological models have been implemented, enabling a real-time assessment of the potential intensity of flash-floods from the records of weather radars: AIGA-hydro system (Lavabre et al., 2005; Javelle et al., 2014), PreDiFlood project (Naulin et al., 2013). The approach presented here aims to go one step further by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of the simulated floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the study area in order (1) to evaluate with a simplified hydraulic approach (DTM treatment) the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2) to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk from geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build an impact model (discharge-impact curve) on each river reach, which is then used to directly estimate the potentially affected assets based on a distributed rainfall runoff model. The overall principle of this approach was already presented at the 8th Hymex workshop. Therefore, the presentation will be here focused on the first validation results in terms of (1) accuracy of flooded areas simulated from DTM treatments, and (2) relevance of estimated impacts. The inundated areas simulated were compared to the European Directive cartography results (where available), showing an overall good correspondence in a large majority of cases, but also very significant errors for approximatively 10% of the river reaches incorporated in the model. The stage/discharge relations obtained at gauging stations were also compared to the real rating curves, showing a very different behavior of the method depending on the local configuration of the considered site. Some developments are now in progress in order to evaluate and validate, as far as possible, the results of the entire simulation chain at the event scale. This work relies on the comparison of simulation results (estimated flood impacts) with insurance losses data (provided by CCR) for several significant past flood events. The first results of this work will be presented.

Multi-Modal Intelligent Traffic Signal Systems (MMITSS) impacts assessment.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-08-01

The study evaluates the potential network-wide impacts of the Multi-Modal Intelligent Transportation Signal System (MMITSS) based on a field data analysis utilizing data collected from a MMITSS prototype and a simulation analysis. The Intelligent Tra...

Impact of climate change on crop yield and role of model for achieving food security.

PubMed

Kumar, Manoj

2016-08-01

In recent times, several studies around the globe indicate that climatic changes are likely to impact the food production and poses serious challenge to food security. In the face of climate change, agricultural systems need to adapt measures for not only increasing food supply catering to the growing population worldwide with changing dietary patterns but also to negate the negative environmental impacts on the earth. Crop simulation models are the primary tools available to assess the potential consequences of climate change on crop production and informative adaptive strategies in agriculture risk management. In consideration with the important issue, this is an attempt to provide a review on the relationship between climate change impacts and crop production. It also emphasizes the role of crop simulation models in achieving food security. Significant progress has been made in understanding the potential consequences of environment-related temperature and precipitation effect on agricultural production during the last half century. Increased CO2 fertilization has enhanced the potential impacts of climate change, but its feasibility is still in doubt and debates among researchers. To assess the potential consequences of climate change on agriculture, different crop simulation models have been developed, to provide informative strategies to avoid risks and understand the physical and biological processes. Furthermore, they can help in crop improvement programmes by identifying appropriate future crop management practises and recognizing the traits having the greatest impact on yield. Nonetheless, climate change assessment through model is subjected to a range of uncertainties. The prediction uncertainty can be reduced by using multimodel, incorporating crop modelling with plant physiology, biochemistry and gene-based modelling. For devloping new model, there is a need to generate and compile high-quality field data for model testing. Therefore, assessment of agricultural productivity to sustain food security for generations is essential to maintain a collective knowledge and resources for preventing negative impact as well as managing crop practises.

Games and Simulations in Online Learning: Research and Development Frameworks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibson, David; Aldrich, Clark; Prensky, Marc

2007-01-01

Games and Simulations in Online Learning: Research and Development Frameworks examines the potential of games and simulations in online learning, and how the future could look as developers learn to use the emerging capabilities of the Semantic Web. It presents a general understanding of how the Semantic Web will impact education and how games and…

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

PubMed

Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

2017-10-01

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Simulation of climate change impacts on grain sorghum production grown under free air CO2 enrichment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Potential impacts of global climate change on crop productivity have drawn much attention in recent years. To investigate these impacts on grain sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Möench] productivity, we calibrated the CERES-Sorghum model in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT...

Spatial Analysis of Biomass Supply: Economic and Environmental Impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The EPIC simulation model is used with SSURGO soils, field location information, and a transportation cost model to analyze potential biomass supply for a West Central MN bioenergy plant. The simulation shows the relationship between biomass price, locations of where biomass production is profitable...

Fundamentals of angled-beam ultrasonic NDE for potential characterization of hidden regions of impact damage in composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldrin, John C.; Wertz, John N.; Welter, John T.; Wallentine, Sarah; Lindgren, Eric A.; Kramb, Victoria; Zainey, David

2018-04-01

In this study, the use of angled-beam ultrasonic NDE was explored for the potential characterization of the hidden regions of impact damage in composites. Simulated studies using CIVA FIDEL 2D were used to explore this inspection problem. Quasi-shear (qS) modes can be generated over a wide range of angles and used to reflect off the backwall and interrogate under the top delaminations of impact damage. Secondary probe signals that do propagate normal to the surface were found to be significant under certain probe conditions, and can potentially interfere with weakly scattered signals from within the composite panel. Simulations were used to evaluate the source of the multiple paths of reflections from the edge of a delamination; time-of-flight and amplitude will depend on the depth of the delamination and location of neighboring delaminations. For angled-beam inspections, noise from both the top surface roughness and internal features was found to potentially mask the detection of signals from the edge of delaminations. Lastly, the study explored the potential of generating "guided" waves along the backwall using an angled-beam source and subsequently measuring scattered signals from a far surface crack hidden under a delamination.

Discrete Particle Method for Simulating Hypervelocity Impact Phenomena.

PubMed

Watson, Erkai; Steinhauser, Martin O

2017-04-02

In this paper, we introduce a computational model for the simulation of hypervelocity impact (HVI) phenomena which is based on the Discrete Element Method (DEM). Our paper constitutes the first application of DEM to the modeling and simulating of impact events for velocities beyond 5 kms -1 . We present here the results of a systematic numerical study on HVI of solids. For modeling the solids, we use discrete spherical particles that interact with each other via potentials. In our numerical investigations we are particularly interested in the dynamics of material fragmentation upon impact. We model a typical HVI experiment configuration where a sphere strikes a thin plate and investigate the properties of the resulting debris cloud. We provide a quantitative computational analysis of the resulting debris cloud caused by impact and a comprehensive parameter study by varying key parameters of our model. We compare our findings from the simulations with recent HVI experiments performed at our institute. Our findings are that the DEM method leads to very stable, energy-conserving simulations of HVI scenarios that map the experimental setup where a sphere strikes a thin plate at hypervelocity speed. Our chosen interaction model works particularly well in the velocity range where the local stresses caused by impact shock waves markedly exceed the ultimate material strength.

Discrete Particle Method for Simulating Hypervelocity Impact Phenomena

PubMed Central

Watson, Erkai; Steinhauser, Martin O.

2017-01-01

In this paper, we introduce a computational model for the simulation of hypervelocity impact (HVI) phenomena which is based on the Discrete Element Method (DEM). Our paper constitutes the first application of DEM to the modeling and simulating of impact events for velocities beyond 5 kms−1. We present here the results of a systematic numerical study on HVI of solids. For modeling the solids, we use discrete spherical particles that interact with each other via potentials. In our numerical investigations we are particularly interested in the dynamics of material fragmentation upon impact. We model a typical HVI experiment configuration where a sphere strikes a thin plate and investigate the properties of the resulting debris cloud. We provide a quantitative computational analysis of the resulting debris cloud caused by impact and a comprehensive parameter study by varying key parameters of our model. We compare our findings from the simulations with recent HVI experiments performed at our institute. Our findings are that the DEM method leads to very stable, energy–conserving simulations of HVI scenarios that map the experimental setup where a sphere strikes a thin plate at hypervelocity speed. Our chosen interaction model works particularly well in the velocity range where the local stresses caused by impact shock waves markedly exceed the ultimate material strength. PMID:28772739

Environmental impacts of precision feeding programs applied in pig production.

PubMed

Andretta, I; Hauschild, L; Kipper, M; Pires, P G S; Pomar, C

2017-12-04

This study was undertaken to evaluate the effect that switching from conventional to precision feeding systems during the growing-finishing phase would have on the potential environmental impact of Brazilian pig production. Standard life-cycle assessment procedures were used, with a cradle-to-farm gate boundary. The inputs and outputs of each interface of the life cycle (production of feed ingredients, processing in the feed industry, transportation and animal rearing) were organized in a model. Grain production was independently characterized in the Central-West and South regions of Brazil, whereas the pigs were raised in the South region. Three feeding programs were applied for growing-finishing pigs: conventional phase feeding by group (CON); precision daily feeding by group (PFG) (whole herd fed the same daily adjusted diet); and precision daily feeding by individual (PFI) (diets adjusted daily to match individual nutrient requirements). Raising pigs (1 t pig BW at farm gate) in South Brazil under the CON feeding program using grain cultivated in the same region led to emissions of 1840 kg of CO2-eq, 13.1 kg of PO4-eq and 32.2 kg of SO2-eq. Simulations using grain from the Central-West region showed a greater climate change impact. Compared with the previous scenario, a 17% increase in climate change impact was found when simulating with soybeans produced in Central-West Brazil, whereas a 28% increase was observed when simulating with corn and soybeans from Central-West Brazil. Compared with the CON feeding program, the PFG and PFI programs reduced the potential environmental impact. Applying the PFG program mitigated the potential climate change impact and eutrophication by up to 4%, and acidification impact by up to 3% compared with the CON program. Making a further adjustment by feeding pigs according to their individual nutrient requirements mitigated the potential climate change impact by up to 6% and the potential eutrophication and acidification impact by up to 5% compared with the CON program. The greatest environmental gains associated with the adoption of precision feeding were observed when the diet combined soybeans from Central-West Brazil with corn produced in Southern Brazil. The results clearly show that precision feeding is an effective approach for improving the environmental sustainability of Brazilian pig production.

Orbital Debris Shape and Orientation Effects on Ballistic Limits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Steven W.; Williamsen, Joel E.

2005-01-01

The SPHC hydrodynamic code was used to evaluate the effects of orbital debris particle shape and orientation on penetration of a typical spacecraft dual-wall shield. Impacts were simulated at near-normal obliquity at 12 km/sec. Debris cloud characteristics and damage potential are compared with those from impacts by spherical projectiles. Results of these simulations indicate the uncertainties in the predicted ballistic limits due to modeling uncertainty and to uncertainty in the impactor orientation.

Simulation Study of Impact of Aeroelastic Characteristics on Flying Qualities of a High Speed Civil Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raney, David L.; Jackson, E. Bruce; Buttrill, Carey S.

2002-01-01

A piloted simulation study conducted in NASA Langley Visual Motion Simulator addressed the impact of dynamic aero- servoelastic effects on flying qualities of a High Speed Civil Transport. The intent was to determine effectiveness of measures to reduce the impact of aircraft flexibility on piloting tasks. Potential solutions examined were increasing frequency of elastic modes through structural stiffening, increasing damping of elastic modes through active control, elimination of control effector excitation of the lowest frequency elastic modes, and elimination of visual cues associated with elastic modes. Six test pilots evaluated and performed simulated maneuver tasks, encountering incidents wherein cockpit vibrations due to elastic modes fed back into the control stick through involuntary vibrations of the pilots upper body and arm. Structural stiffening and compensation of the visual display were of little benefit in alleviating this impact, while increased damping and elimination of control effector excitation of the elastic modes both offered great improvements when applied in sufficient degree.

The potential impact of scatterometry on oceanography - A wave forecasting case

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cane, M. A.; Cardone, V. J.

1981-01-01

A series of observing system simulation experiments have been performed in order to assess the potential impact of marine surface wind data on numerical weather prediction. In addition to conventional data, the experiments simulated the time-continuous assimilation of remotely sensed marine surface wind or temperature sounding data. The wind data were fabricated directly for model grid points intercepted by a Seasat-1 scatterometer swath and were assimilated into the lowest active level (945 mb) of the model using a localized successive correction method. It is shown that Seasat wind data can greatly improve numerical weather forecasts due to better definition of specific features. The case of the QE II storm is examined.

Examining the Societal Impacts of Nanotechnology through Simulation: NANO SCENARIO

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jarmon, Leslie; Keating, Elizabeth; Toprac, Paul

2008-01-01

This article describes a university-sponsored experiential-based simulation, the NANO SCENARIO, to increase the public's awareness and affect attitudes on the societal implications of nanoscience and nanotechnology by bringing together diverse stakeholders' perspectives in a participatory learning environment. Nanotechnology has the potential for…

Potential impacts of climate change on flow regime and fish habitat in mountain rivers of the south-western Balkans.

PubMed

Papadaki, Christina; Soulis, Konstantinos; Muñoz-Mas, Rafael; Martinez-Capel, Francisco; Zogaris, Stamatis; Ntoanidis, Lazaros; Dimitriou, Elias

2016-01-01

The climate change in the Mediterranean area is expected to have significant impacts on the aquatic ecosystems and particular in the mountain rivers and streams that often host important species such as the Salmo farioides, Karaman 1938. These impacts will most possibly affect the habitat availability for various aquatic species resulting to an essential alteration of the water requirements, either for dams or other water abstractions, in order to maintain the essential levels of ecological flow for the rivers. The main scope of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts on the hydrological patterns and typical biota for a south-western Balkan mountain river, the Acheloos. The altered flow regimes under different emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were estimated using a hydrological model and based on regional climate simulations over the study area. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methodology was then used to assess the potential streamflow alterations in the studied river due to predicted climate change conditions. A fish habitat simulation method integrating univariate habitat suitability curves and hydraulic modeling techniques were used to assess the impacts on the relationships between the aquatic biota and hydrological status utilizing a sentinel species, the West Balkan trout. The most prominent effects of the climate change scenarios depict severe flow reductions that are likely to occur especially during the summer flows, changing the duration and depressing the magnitude of the natural low flow conditions. Weighted Usable Area-flow curves indicated the limitation of suitable habitat for the native trout. Finally, this preliminary application highlighted the potential of science-based hydrological and habitat simulation approaches that are relevant to both biological quality elements (fish) and current EU Water policy to serve as efficient tools for the estimation of possible climate change impacts on the south-western Balkan river ecosystems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New approach to wireless data communication in a propagation environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunek, Wojciech P.; Majewski, Paweł

2017-10-01

This paper presents a new idea of perfect signal reconstruction in multivariable wireless communications systems including a different number of transmitting and receiving antennas. The proposed approach is based on the polynomial matrix S-inverse associated with Smith factorization. Crucially, the above mentioned inverse implements the so-called degrees of freedom. It has been confirmed by simulation study that the degrees of freedom allow to minimalize the negative impact of the propagation environment in terms of increasing the robustness of whole signal reconstruction process. Now, the parasitic drawbacks in form of dynamic ISI and ICI effects can be eliminated in framework described by polynomial calculus. Therefore, the new method guarantees not only reducing the financial impact but, more importantly, provides potentially the lower consumption energy systems than other classical ones. In order to show the potential of new approach, the simulation studies were performed by author's simulator based on well-known OFDM technique.

Rubber Impact on 3D Textile Composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimbs, Sebastian; Van Den Broucke, Björn; Duplessis Kergomard, Yann; Dau, Frederic; Malherbe, Benoit

2012-06-01

A low velocity impact study of aircraft tire rubber on 3D textile-reinforced composite plates was performed experimentally and numerically. In contrast to regular unidirectional composite laminates, no delaminations occur in such a 3D textile composite. Yarn decohesions, matrix cracks and yarn ruptures have been identified as the major damage mechanisms under impact load. An increase in the number of 3D warp yarns is proposed to improve the impact damage resistance. The characteristic of a rubber impact is the high amount of elastic energy stored in the impactor during impact, which was more than 90% of the initial kinetic energy. This large geometrical deformation of the rubber during impact leads to a less localised loading of the target structure and poses great challenges for the numerical modelling. A hyperelastic Mooney-Rivlin constitutive law was used in Abaqus/Explicit based on a step-by-step validation with static rubber compression tests and low velocity impact tests on aluminium plates. Simulation models of the textile weave were developed on the meso- and macro-scale. The final correlation between impact simulation results on 3D textile-reinforced composite plates and impact test data was promising, highlighting the potential of such numerical simulation tools.

Simulated developmental and reproductive impacts on amphibian populations and implications for assessing long-term effects

EPA Science Inventory

Fish endpoints measured in early life stage toxicity tests are often used as representative of larval amphibian sensitivity in Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). This application potentially overlooks the impact of developmental delays on amphibian metamorphosis, and thereby red...

Plant reproduction is altered by simulated herbicide drift to constructed plant communities

EPA Science Inventory

Herbicide drift may have unintended impacts on native vegetation, adversely affecting structure and function of plant communities. However, these potential effects have been rarely studied or quantified. To determine potential ecological effects of herbicide drift, we construct...

Computer simulations in the high school: students' cognitive stages, science process skills and academic achievement in microbiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huppert, J.; Michal Lomask, S.; Lazarowitz, R.

2002-08-01

Computer-assisted learning, including simulated experiments, has great potential to address the problem solving process which is a complex activity. It requires a highly structured approach in order to understand the use of simulations as an instructional device. This study is based on a computer simulation program, 'The Growth Curve of Microorganisms', which required tenth grade biology students to use problem solving skills whilst simultaneously manipulating three independent variables in one simulated experiment. The aims were to investigate the computer simulation's impact on students' academic achievement and on their mastery of science process skills in relation to their cognitive stages. The results indicate that the concrete and transition operational students in the experimental group achieved significantly higher academic achievement than their counterparts in the control group. The higher the cognitive operational stage, the higher students' achievement was, except in the control group where students in the concrete and transition operational stages did not differ. Girls achieved equally with the boys in the experimental group. Students' academic achievement may indicate the potential impact a computer simulation program can have, enabling students with low reasoning abilities to cope successfully with learning concepts and principles in science which require high cognitive skills.

Shale Gas and Oil in Germany - Resources and Environmental Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ladage, Stefan; Blumenberg, Martin; Houben, Georg; Pfunt, Helena; Gestermann, Nicolai; Franke, Dieter; Erbacher, Jochen

2017-04-01

In light of the controversial debate on "unconventional" oil and gas resources and the environmental impacts of "fracking", the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) conducted a comprehensive resource assessment of shale gas and light tight oil in Germany and studied the potential environmental impacts of shale gas development and hydraulic fracturing from a geoscientific perspective. Here, we present our final results (BGR 2016), incorporating the majority of potential shale source rock formations in Germany. Besides shale gas, light tight oil has been assessed. According to our set of criteria - i.e. thermal maturity 0.6-1.2 %vitrinite reflectance (VR; oil) and >1.2 % VR (gas) respectively, organic carbon content > 2%, depth between 500/1000 m and 5000 m as well as a net thickness >20 m - seven potentially generative shale formations were indentified, the most important of them being the Lower Jurassic (Toarcian) Posidonia shale with both shale gas and tight oil potential. The North German basin is by far the most prolific basin. The resource assessment was carried out using a volumetric in-place approach. Variability inherent in the input parameters was accounted for using Monte-Carlo simulations. Technically recoverable resources (TRR) were estimated using recent, production-based recovery factors of North American shale plays and also employing Monte-Carlo simulations. In total, shale gas TRR range between 320 and 2030 bcm and tight oil TRR between 13 and 164 Mio. t in Germany. Tight oil potential is therefore considered minor, whereas the shale gas potential exceeds that of conventional resources by far. Furthermore an overview of numerical transport modelling approaches concerning environmental impacts of the hydraulic fracturing is given. These simulations are based on a representative lithostratigraphy model of the North-German basin, where major shale plays can be expected. Numerical hydrogeological modelling of frac fluid migration in the subsurface has been conducted, as well as stress modelling to estimate frac dimension magnitudes and the potential frequency of induced seismity. The results of these simulations reveal that the probabiltiy of impacts on shallow groundwater by the upward migration of fracking fluids from a deep shale formation through the geological underground in the North German basin is small. BGR 2016 - Schieferöl und Schiefergas in Deutschland - Potenziale und Umweltaspekte, 197p, Hannover, 2016: http://www.bgr.bund.de/DE/Themen/Energie/Downloads/Abschlussbericht_13MB_Schieferoelgaspotenzial_Deutschland_2016.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=5.

CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.

PubMed

Lin, Yumei; Wu, Wenxiang; Ge, Quansheng

2015-11-01

Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model. The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes. The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

An Auxiliary Method To Reduce Potential Adverse Impacts Of Projected Land Developments: Subwatershed Prioritization

EPA Science Inventory

An index based method is developed that ranks the subwatersheds of a watershed based on their relative impacts on watershed response to anticipated land developments, and then applied to an urbanizing watershed in Eastern Pennsylvania. Simulations with a semi-distributed hydrolo...

Impact of large-scale atmospheric refractive structures on optical wave propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunalee, Christopher G.; He, Ping; Basu, Sukanta; Vorontsov, Mikhail A.; Fiorino, Steven T.

2014-10-01

Conventional techniques used to model optical wave propagation through the Earth's atmosphere typically as- sume flow fields based on various empirical relationships. Unfortunately, these synthetic refractive index fields do not take into account the influence of transient macroscale and mesoscale (i.e. larger than turbulent microscale) atmospheric phenomena. Nevertheless, a number of atmospheric structures that are characterized by various spatial and temporal scales exist which have the potential to significantly impact refractive index fields, thereby resulting dramatic impacts on optical wave propagation characteristics. In this paper, we analyze a subset of spatio-temporal dynamics found to strongly affect optical waves propagating through these atmospheric struc- tures. Analysis of wave propagation was performed in the geometrical optics approximation using a standard ray tracing technique. Using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) approach, we simulate multiple realistic atmospheric events (e.g., island wakes, low-level jets, etc.), and estimate the associated refractivity fields prior to performing ray tracing simulations. By coupling NWP model output with ray tracing simulations, we demon- strate the ability to quantitatively assess the potential impacts of coherent atmospheric phenomena on optical ray propagation. Our results show a strong impact of spatio-temporal characteristics of the refractive index field on optical ray trajectories. Such correlations validate the effectiveness of NWP models as they offer a more comprehensive representation of atmospheric refractivity fields compared to conventional methods based on the assumption of horizontal homogeneity.

Waterhammer Transient Simulation and Model Anchoring for the Robotic Lunar Lander Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stein, William B.; Trinh, Huu P.; Reynolds, Michael E.; Sharp, David J.

2011-01-01

Waterhammer transients have the potential to adversely impact propulsion system design if not properly addressed. Waterhammer can potentially lead to system plumbing, and component damage. Multi-thruster propulsion systems also develop constructive/destructive wave interference which becomes difficult to predict without detailed models. Therefore, it is important to sufficiently characterize propulsion system waterhammer in order to develop a robust design with minimal impact to other systems. A risk reduction activity was performed at Marshall Space Flight Center to develop a tool for estimating waterhammer through the use of anchored simulation for the Robotic Lunar Lander (RLL) propulsion system design. Testing was performed to simulate waterhammer surges due to rapid valve closure and consisted of twenty-two series of waterhammer tests, resulting in more than 300 valve actuations. These tests were performed using different valve actuation schemes and three system pressures. Data from the valve characterization tests were used to anchor the models that employed MSCSoftware.EASY5 v.2010 to model transient fluid phenomena by using transient forms of mass and energy conservation. The anchoring process was performed by comparing initial model results to experimental data and then iterating the model input to match the simulation results with the experimental data. The models provide good correlation with experimental results, supporting the use of EASY5 as a tool to model fluid transients and provide a baseline for future RLL system modeling. This paper addresses tasks performed during the waterhammer risk reduction activity for the RLL propulsion system. The problem of waterhammer simulation anchoring as applied to the RLL system is discussed with results from the corresponding experimental valve tests. Important factors for waterhammer mitigation are discussed along with potential design impacts to the RLL propulsion system.

SCIX IMPACT ON DWPF CPC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koopman, D.

2011-07-14

A program was conducted to systematically evaluate potential impacts of the proposed Small Column Ion Exchange (SCIX) process on the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) Chemical Processing Cell (CPC). The program involved a series of interrelated tasks. Past studies of the impact of crystalline silicotitanate (CST) and monosodium titanate (MST) on DWPF were reviewed. Paper studies and material balance calculations were used to establish reasonable bounding levels of CST and MST in sludge. Following the paper studies, Sludge Batch 10 (SB10) simulant was modified to have both bounding and intermediate levels of MST and ground CST. The SCIX flow sheetmore » includes grinding of the CST which is larger than DWPF frit when not ground. Nominal ground CST was not yet available, therefore a similar CST ground previously in Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) was used. It was believed that this CST was over ground and that it would bound the impact of nominal CST on sludge slurry properties. Lab-scale simulations of the DWPF CPC were conducted using SB10 simulants with no, intermediate, and bounding levels of CST and MST. Tests included both the Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank (SRAT) and Slurry Mix Evaporator (SME) cycles. Simulations were performed at high and low acid stoichiometry. A demonstration of the extended CPC flowsheet was made that included streams from the site interim salt processing operations. A simulation using irradiated CST and MST was also completed. An extensive set of rheological measurements was made to search for potential adverse consequences of CST and MST and slurry rheology in the CPC. The SCIX CPC impact program was conducted in parallel with a program to evaluate the impact of SCIX on the final DWPF glass waste form and on the DWPF melter throughput. The studies must be considered together when evaluating the full impact of SCIX on DWPF. Due to the fact that the alternant flowsheet for DWPF has not been selected, this study did not consider the impact of proposed future alternative DWPF CPC flowsheets. The impact of the SCIX streams on DWPF processing using the selected flowsheet need to be considered as part of the technical baseline studies for coupled processing with the selected flowsheet. In addition, the downstream impact of aluminum dissolution on waste containing CST and MST has not yet been evaluated. The current baseline would not subject CST to the aluminum dissolution process and technical concerns with performing the dissolution with CST have been expressed. Should this option become feasible, the downstream impact should be considered. The main area of concern for DWPF from aluminum dissolution is an impact on rheology. The SCIX project is planning for SRNL to complete MST, CST, and sludge rheology testing to evaluate any expected changes. The impact of ground CST transport and flush water on the DWPF CPC feed tank (and potential need for decanting) has not been defined or studied.« less

Simulations of Prebiotic Chemistry under Post-Impact Conditions on Titan.

PubMed

Turse, Carol; Leitner, Johannes; Firneis, Maria; Schulze-Makuch, Dirk

2013-12-17

The problem of how life began can be considered as a matter of basic chemistry. How did the molecules of life arise from non-biological chemistry? Stanley Miller's famous experiment in 1953, in which he produced amino acids under simulated early Earth conditions, was a huge leap forward in our understanding of this problem. Our research first simulated early Earth conditions based on Miller's experiment and we then repeated the experiment using Titan post-impact conditions. We simulated conditions that could have existed on Titan after an asteroid strike. Specifically, we simulated conditions after a potential strike in the subpolar regions of Titan that exhibit vast methane-ethane lakes. If the asteroid or comet was of sufficient size, it would also puncture the icy crust and bring up some of the subsurface liquid ammonia-water mixture. Since, O'Brian, Lorenz and Lunine showed that a liquid water-ammonia body could exist between about 102-104 years on Titan after an asteroid impact we modified our experimental conditions to include an ammonia-water mixture in the reaction medium. Here we report on the resulting amino acids found using the Titan post-impact conditions in a classical Miller experimental reaction set-up and how they differ from the simulated early Earth conditions.

Clinic Workflow Simulations using Secondary EHR Data

PubMed Central

Hribar, Michelle R.; Biermann, David; Read-Brown, Sarah; Reznick, Leah; Lombardi, Lorinna; Parikh, Mansi; Chamberlain, Winston; Yackel, Thomas R.; Chiang, Michael F.

2016-01-01

Clinicians today face increased patient loads, decreased reimbursements and potential negative productivity impacts of using electronic health records (EHR), but have little guidance on how to improve clinic efficiency. Discrete event simulation models are powerful tools for evaluating clinical workflow and improving efficiency, particularly when they are built from secondary EHR timing data. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that these simulation models can be used for resource allocation decision making as well as for evaluating novel scheduling strategies in outpatient ophthalmology clinics. Key findings from this study are that: 1) secondary use of EHR timestamp data in simulation models represents clinic workflow, 2) simulations provide insight into the best allocation of resources in a clinic, 3) simulations provide critical information for schedule creation and decision making by clinic managers, and 4) simulation models built from EHR data are potentially generalizable. PMID:28269861

Finite element analysis of pedestrian lower limb fractures by direct force: the result of being run over or impact?

PubMed

Li, Zhengdong; Zou, Donghua; Liu, Ningguo; Zhong, Liangwei; Shao, Yu; Wan, Lei; Huang, Ping; Chen, Yijiu

2013-06-10

The elucidation and prediction of the biomechanics of lower limb fractures could serve as a useful tool in forensic practices. Finite element (FE) analysis could potentially help in the understanding of the fracture mechanisms of lower limb fractures frequently caused by car-pedestrian accidents. Our aim was (1) to develop and validate a FE model of the human lower limb, (2) to assess the biomechanics of specific injuries concerning run-over and impact loading conditions, and (3) to reconstruct one real car-pedestrian collision case using the model created in this study. We developed a novel lower limb FE model and simulated three different loading scenarios. The geometry of the model was reconstructed using Mimics 13.0 based on computed tomography (CT) scans from an actual traffic accident. The material properties were based upon a synthesis of data found in published literature. The FE model validation and injury reconstruction were conducted using the LS-DYNA code. The FE model was validated by a comparison of the simulation results of three-point bending, overall lateral impact tests and published postmortem human surrogate (PMHS) results. Simulated loading scenarios of running-over the thigh with a wheel, the impact on the upper leg, and impact on the lower thigh were conducted with velocities of 10 m/s, 20 m/s, and 40 m/s, respectively. We compared the injuries resulting from one actual case with the simulated results in order to explore the possible fracture bio-mechanism. The peak fracture forces, maximum bending moments, and energy lost ratio exhibited no significant differences between the FE simulations and the literature data. Under simulated run-over conditions, the segmental fracture pattern was formed and the femur fracture patterns and mechanisms were consistent with the actual injury features of the case. Our study demonstrated that this simulation method could potentially be effective in identifying forensic cases and exploring of the injury mechanisms of lower limb fractures encountered due to inflicted lesions. This model can also help to distinguish between possible and impossible scenarios. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

NREL Partners with California's Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority

Science.gov Websites

Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) - a high-level simulation tool for estimating the impact of , manager of the Transportation Systems Group in NREL's Transportation and Hydrogen Systems Center. " ;NREL will provide modeling and analytics on the potential scope of energy services associated with VGI

Transplant shock of northern red oak seedlings following simulated drought as influenced by root morphology

Treesearch

Douglass F. Jacobs; Francis Salifu; Anthony Davis

2005-01-01

Transplant shock, implicated by depressed seedling physiological response associated with moisture or nutrient stress immediately following planting, limits early plantation establishment. We investigated the impacts of simulated drought and transplant root volume on predawn leaf xylem water potential, photosynthetic assimilation rates, stomatal conductance, and growth...

Investigating Students' Ideas about Buoyancy and the Influence of Haptic Feedback

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minogue, James; Borland, David

2016-01-01

While haptics (simulated touch) represents a potential breakthrough technology for science teaching and learning, there is relatively little research into its differential impact in the context of teaching and learning. This paper describes the testing of a haptically enhanced simulation (HES) for learning about buoyancy. Despite a lifetime of…

Resilience of microbial communities in a simulated drinking water distribution system subjected to disturbances: role of conditionally rare taxa and potential implications for antibiotic-resistant bacteria

EPA Science Inventory

Many US water utilities using chloramine as their secondary disinfectant have experienced nitrification episodes that detrimentally impact water quality in their distribution systems. A semi-closed pipe-loop chloraminated drinking water distribution system (DWDS) simulator was u...

POTENTIAL IMPACT ON BLOOD AVAILABILITY AND DONOR IRON STATUS OF CHANGES TO DONOR HEMOGLOBIN CUTOFF AND INTERDONATION INTERVALS

PubMed Central

Spencer, Bryan R.; Johnson, Bryce; Wright, David J.; Kleinman, Steven; Glynn, Simone A.; Cable, Ritchard G.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND A minimum male hemoglobin (Hb) of 13.0 g/dL will become an FDA requirement in May 2016. In addition, extending whole blood (WB) interdonation intervals (IDIs) beyond 8 weeks has been considered in order to reduce iron depletion in repeat blood donors. This study estimates the impact these changes might have on blood availability and donor iron status. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS Six blood centers participating in REDS-II collected information on all donation visits from 2006–09. Simulations were developed from these data using a multi-stage approach that first sought to adequately reproduce the patterns of donor return, Hb and ferritin levels, and outcomes of a donor’s visit (successful single or double RBC donation, deferral for low Hb) observed in REDS-II datasets. Modified simulations were used to predict the potential impact on the blood supply and donor iron status under different Hb cutoff and IDI qualification criteria. RESULTS More than 10% of WB donations might require replacement under many simulated scenarios. Longer IDIs would reduce the proportion of donors with iron depletion, but 80% of these donors may remain iron-depleted if minimal IDIs increased to 12 or 16 weeks. CONCLUSION Higher Hb cutoffs and longer IDIs are predicted to have a potentially large impact on collections but only a modest impact on donor iron depletion. Efforts to address iron depletion should be targeted to at-risk donors, such as iron supplementation programs for frequent donors, and policy makers should try to avoid broadly restrictive donation requirements that could substantially reduce blood availability. PMID:27237451

Impact of derived global weather data on simulated crop yields

PubMed Central

van Wart, Justin; Grassini, Patricio; Cassman, Kenneth G

2013-01-01

Crop simulation models can be used to estimate impact of current and future climates on crop yields and food security, but require long-term historical daily weather data to obtain robust simulations. In many regions where crops are grown, daily weather data are not available. Alternatively, gridded weather databases (GWD) with complete terrestrial coverage are available, typically derived from: (i) global circulation computer models; (ii) interpolated weather station data; or (iii) remotely sensed surface data from satellites. The present study's objective is to evaluate capacity of GWDs to simulate crop yield potential (Yp) or water-limited yield potential (Yw), which can serve as benchmarks to assess impact of climate change scenarios on crop productivity and land use change. Three GWDs (CRU, NCEP/DOE, and NASA POWER data) were evaluated for their ability to simulate Yp and Yw of rice in China, USA maize, and wheat in Germany. Simulations of Yp and Yw based on recorded daily data from well-maintained weather stations were taken as the control weather data (CWD). Agreement between simulations of Yp or Yw based on CWD and those based on GWD was poor with the latter having strong bias and large root mean square errors (RMSEs) that were 26–72% of absolute mean yield across locations and years. In contrast, simulated Yp or Yw using observed daily weather data from stations in the NOAA database combined with solar radiation from the NASA-POWER database were in much better agreement with Yp and Yw simulated with CWD (i.e. little bias and an RMSE of 12–19% of the absolute mean). We conclude that results from studies that rely on GWD to simulate agricultural productivity in current and future climates are highly uncertain. An alternative approach would impose a climate scenario on location-specific observed daily weather databases combined with an appropriate upscaling method. PMID:23801639

Impact of derived global weather data on simulated crop yields.

PubMed

van Wart, Justin; Grassini, Patricio; Cassman, Kenneth G

2013-12-01

Crop simulation models can be used to estimate impact of current and future climates on crop yields and food security, but require long-term historical daily weather data to obtain robust simulations. In many regions where crops are grown, daily weather data are not available. Alternatively, gridded weather databases (GWD) with complete terrestrial coverage are available, typically derived from: (i) global circulation computer models; (ii) interpolated weather station data; or (iii) remotely sensed surface data from satellites. The present study's objective is to evaluate capacity of GWDs to simulate crop yield potential (Yp) or water-limited yield potential (Yw), which can serve as benchmarks to assess impact of climate change scenarios on crop productivity and land use change. Three GWDs (CRU, NCEP/DOE, and NASA POWER data) were evaluated for their ability to simulate Yp and Yw of rice in China, USA maize, and wheat in Germany. Simulations of Yp and Yw based on recorded daily data from well-maintained weather stations were taken as the control weather data (CWD). Agreement between simulations of Yp or Yw based on CWD and those based on GWD was poor with the latter having strong bias and large root mean square errors (RMSEs) that were 26-72% of absolute mean yield across locations and years. In contrast, simulated Yp or Yw using observed daily weather data from stations in the NOAA database combined with solar radiation from the NASA-POWER database were in much better agreement with Yp and Yw simulated with CWD (i.e. little bias and an RMSE of 12-19% of the absolute mean). We conclude that results from studies that rely on GWD to simulate agricultural productivity in current and future climates are highly uncertain. An alternative approach would impose a climate scenario on location-specific observed daily weather databases combined with an appropriate upscaling method. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, J; Li, X; Ding, X

Purpose: We investigate the spot characteristic and dose profiles properties from a compact gantry proton therapy system. This compact design features a dedicated pencil beam scanning nozzle with the scanning magnet located upstream of the final 60 degree bending magnet. Due to the unique beam line design, uncertainty has been raised in the virtual source-to-axis distance (SAD). We investigate its potential clinical impact through measurements and simulation. Methods: A scintillator camera based detector was used to measure spot characteristics and position accuracy. An ion chamber array device was used to measure planar dose profile. Dose profile in-air simulation was performedmore » using in-house built MATLAB program based on additional spot parameters directly from measurements. Spot characteristics such as position and in-air sigma values were used to general simulated 2D elliptical Gaussian spots. The virtual SAD distance changes in the longitudinal direction were also simulated. Planar dose profiles were generated by summation of simulated spots at the isocenter, 15 cm above the isocenter, and 15 cm below the isocenter for evaluation of potential clinical dosimetric impact. Results: We found that the virtual SAD varies depending on the spot location on the longitudinal axis. Measurements have shown that the variable SAD changes from 7 to 12 meters from one end to the other end of the treatment field in the longitudinal direction. The simulation shows that the planer dose profiles differences between the fixed SAD and variable SAD are within 3% from the isocenter profile and the lateral penumbras are within 1 mm difference. Conclusion: Our measurements and simulations show that there are minimum effects on the spot characteristics and dose profiles for this up-stream scanning compact system proton system. Further treatment planning study is needed with the variable virtual SAD accounted for in the planning system to show minimum dosimetric impact.« less

Impact of actuarial assumptions on pension costs: A simulation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusof, Shaira; Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty

2013-04-01

This study investigates the sensitivity of pension costs to changes in the underlying assumptions of a hypothetical pension plan in order to gain a perspective on the relative importance of the various actuarial assumptions via a simulation analysis. Simulation analyses are used to examine the impact of actuarial assumptions on pension costs. There are two actuarial assumptions will be considered in this study which are mortality rates and interest rates. To calculate pension costs, Accrued Benefit Cost Method, constant amount (CA) modification, constant percentage of salary (CS) modification are used in the study. The mortality assumptions and the implied mortality experience of the plan can potentially have a significant impact on pension costs. While for interest rate assumptions, it is inversely related to the pension costs. Results of the study have important implications for analyst of pension costs.

High-Fidelity Simulations of Electrically-Charged Atomizing Diesel-Type Jets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaillard, Benoit; Owkes, Mark; van Poppel, Bret

2015-11-01

Combustion of liquid fuels accounts for over a third of the energy usage today. Improving efficiency of combustion systems is critical to meet the energy needs while limiting environmental impacts. Additionally, a shift away from traditional fossil fuels to bio-derived alternatives requires fuel injection systems that can atomize fuels with a wide range of properties. In this work, the potential benefits of electrically-charged atomization is investigated using numerical simulations. Particularly, the electrostatic forces on the hydrodynamic jet are quantified and the impact of the forces is analyzed by comparing simulations of Diesel-type jets at realistic flow conditions. The simulations are performed using a state-of-the-art numerical framework that globally conserves mass, momentum, and the electric charge density even at the gas-liquid interface where discontinuities exist.

Assessment of distributed photovoltair electric-power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neal, R. W.; Deduck, P. F.; Marshall, R. N.

1982-10-01

The development of a methodology to assess the potential impacts of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems on electric utility systems, including subtransmission and distribution networks, and to apply that methodology to several illustrative examples was developed. The investigations focused upon five specific utilities. Impacts upon utility system operations and generation mix were assessed using accepted utility planning methods in combination with models that simulate PV system performance and life cycle economics. Impacts on the utility subtransmission and distribution systems were also investigated. The economic potential of distributed PV systems was investigated for ownership by the utility as well as by the individual utility customer.

Modeling the Effects of Groundwater-fed Irrigation on Terrestrial Hydrology over the Conterminous United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong

2014-06-01

Human alteration of the land surface hydrologic cycle is substantial. Recent studies suggest that local water management practices including groundwater pumping and irrigation could significantly alter the quantity and distribution of water in the terrestrial system, with potential impacts on weather and climate through land-atmosphere feedbacks. In this study, we incorporated a groundwater withdrawal scheme into the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4). To simulate the impact of irrigation realistically, we calibrated the CLM4 simulated irrigation amount against observations from agriculture census at the county scale over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The water used for irrigation was then removedmore » from the surface runoff and groundwater aquifer according to a ratio determined from the county-level agricultural census data. Based on the simulations, the impact of groundwater withdrawals for irrigation on land surface and subsurface fluxes were investigated. Our results suggest that the impacts of irrigation on latent heat flux and potential recharge when water is withdrawn from surface water alone or from both surface and groundwater are comparable and local to the irrigation areas. However, when water is withdrawn from groundwater for irrigation, greater effects on the subsurface water balance were found, leading to significant depletion of groundwater storage in regions with low recharge rate and high groundwater exploitation rate. Our results underscore the importance of local hydrologic feedbacks in governing hydrologic response to anthropogenic change in CLM4 and the need to more realistically simulate the two-way interactions among surface water, groundwater, and atmosphere to better understand the impacts of groundwater pumping on irrigation efficiency and climate.« less

Ecological impact of historical and future land-use patterns in Senegal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parton, W.; Tappan, G. Gray; Ojima, D.; Tschakert, P.

2004-01-01

The CENTURY model was used to simulate changes in total system carbon resulting from land-use history (1850–2000), and impacts of climatic changes and improved land-use management practices in Senegal. Results show that 0.477 Gtons of carbon have been lost from 1850 to 2000. Improved management practices have the potential of increasing carbon levels by 0.116 Gtons from 2000 to 2100. Potential to store carbon exists for improved forest management and agriculture practices in southern Senegal. Potential climatic changes decrease plant production (30 percent), total system carbon (14 percent), and the potential to store carbon from improved management practices (31 percent).

The Use of Simulation to Reduce the Domain of "Black Swans" with Application to Hurricane Impacts to Power Systems.

PubMed

Berner, Christine L; Staid, Andrea; Flage, Roger; Guikema, Seth D

2017-10-01

Recently, the concept of black swans has gained increased attention in the fields of risk assessment and risk management. Different types of black swans have been suggested, distinguishing between unknown unknowns (nothing in the past can convincingly point to its occurrence), unknown knowns (known to some, but not to relevant analysts), or known knowns where the probability of occurrence is judged as negligible. Traditional risk assessments have been questioned, as their standard probabilistic methods may not be capable of predicting or even identifying these rare and extreme events, thus creating a source of possible black swans. In this article, we show how a simulation model can be used to identify previously unknown potentially extreme events that if not identified and treated could occur as black swans. We show that by manipulating a verified and validated model used to predict the impacts of hazards on a system of interest, we can identify hazard conditions not previously experienced that could lead to impacts much larger than any previous level of impact. This makes these potential black swan events known and allows risk managers to more fully consider them. We demonstrate this method using a model developed to evaluate the effect of hurricanes on energy systems in the United States; we identify hurricanes with potentially extreme impacts, storms well beyond what the historic record suggests is possible in terms of impacts. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Large-Scale Brain Simulation and Disorders of Consciousness. Mapping Technical and Conceptual Issues.

PubMed

Farisco, Michele; Kotaleski, Jeanette H; Evers, Kathinka

2018-01-01

Modeling and simulations have gained a leading position in contemporary attempts to describe, explain, and quantitatively predict the human brain's operations. Computer models are highly sophisticated tools developed to achieve an integrated knowledge of the brain with the aim of overcoming the actual fragmentation resulting from different neuroscientific approaches. In this paper we investigate the plausibility of simulation technologies for emulation of consciousness and the potential clinical impact of large-scale brain simulation on the assessment and care of disorders of consciousness (DOCs), e.g., Coma, Vegetative State/Unresponsive Wakefulness Syndrome, Minimally Conscious State. Notwithstanding their technical limitations, we suggest that simulation technologies may offer new solutions to old practical problems, particularly in clinical contexts. We take DOCs as an illustrative case, arguing that the simulation of neural correlates of consciousness is potentially useful for improving treatments of patients with DOCs.

Large-Scale Brain Simulation and Disorders of Consciousness. Mapping Technical and Conceptual Issues

PubMed Central

Farisco, Michele; Kotaleski, Jeanette H.; Evers, Kathinka

2018-01-01

Modeling and simulations have gained a leading position in contemporary attempts to describe, explain, and quantitatively predict the human brain’s operations. Computer models are highly sophisticated tools developed to achieve an integrated knowledge of the brain with the aim of overcoming the actual fragmentation resulting from different neuroscientific approaches. In this paper we investigate the plausibility of simulation technologies for emulation of consciousness and the potential clinical impact of large-scale brain simulation on the assessment and care of disorders of consciousness (DOCs), e.g., Coma, Vegetative State/Unresponsive Wakefulness Syndrome, Minimally Conscious State. Notwithstanding their technical limitations, we suggest that simulation technologies may offer new solutions to old practical problems, particularly in clinical contexts. We take DOCs as an illustrative case, arguing that the simulation of neural correlates of consciousness is potentially useful for improving treatments of patients with DOCs. PMID:29740372

Assessment of potential climate change impacts on peatland dissolved organic carbon release and drinking water treatment from laboratory experiments.

PubMed

Tang, R; Clark, J M; Bond, T; Graham, N; Hughes, D; Freeman, C

2013-02-01

Catchments draining peat soils provide the majority of drinking water in the UK. Over the past decades, concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have increased in surface waters. Residual DOC can cause harmful carcinogenic disinfection by-products to form during water treatment processes. Increased frequency and severity of droughts combined with and increased temperatures expected as the climate changes, have potentials to change water quality. We used a novel approach to investigate links between climate change, DOC release and subsequent effects on drinking water treatment. We designed a climate manipulation experiment to simulate projected climate changes and monitored releases from peat soil and litter, then simulated coagulation used in water treatment. We showed that the 'drought' simulation was the dominant factor altering DOC release and affected the ability to remove DOC. Our results imply that future short-term drought events could have a greater impact than increased temperature on DOC treatability. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The potential impacts of development on wildlands in El Dorado County, California

Treesearch

Shawn C. Saving; Gregory B. Greenwood

2002-01-01

We modeled future development in rapidly urbanizing El Dorado County, California, to assess ecological impacts of expanding urbanization and effectiveness of standard policy mitigation efforts. Using raster land cover data and county parcel data, we constructed a footprint of current development and simulated future development using a modified stochastic flood-fill...

Implications of Mixed Reality and Simulation Technologies on Special Education and Teacher Preparation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dieker, Lisa; Hynes, Michael; Hughes, Charles; Smith, Eileen

2008-01-01

As technology evolves, so does its impact on people's lives. These changes clearly affect people's daily activities, but how might they also impact education, teachers, and the lives of students with disabilities? This article focuses on technological innovations and their potential implications for students and teachers in schools. This article…

Interspeaker Variability in Hard Palate Morphology and Vowel Production

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lammert, Adam; Proctor, Michael; Narayanan, Shrikanth

2013-01-01

Purpose: Differences in vocal tract morphology have the potential to explain interspeaker variability in speech production. The potential acoustic impact of hard palate shape was examined in simulation, in addition to the interplay among morphology, articulation, and acoustics in real vowel production data. Method: High-front vowel production from…

Marine and Hydrokinetic Research | Water Power | NREL

Science.gov Websites

. Resource Characterization and Maps NREL develops measurement systems, simulation tools, and web-based models and tools to evaluate the economic potential of power-generating devices for all technology Acceleration NREL analysts study the potential impacts that developing a robust MHK market could have on

Impact of an equality constraint on the class-specific residual variances in regression mixtures: A Monte Carlo simulation study

PubMed Central

Kim, Minjung; Lamont, Andrea E.; Jaki, Thomas; Feaster, Daniel; Howe, George; Van Horn, M. Lee

2015-01-01

Regression mixture models are a novel approach for modeling heterogeneous effects of predictors on an outcome. In the model building process residual variances are often disregarded and simplifying assumptions made without thorough examination of the consequences. This simulation study investigated the impact of an equality constraint on the residual variances across latent classes. We examine the consequence of constraining the residual variances on class enumeration (finding the true number of latent classes) and parameter estimates under a number of different simulation conditions meant to reflect the type of heterogeneity likely to exist in applied analyses. Results showed that bias in class enumeration increased as the difference in residual variances between the classes increased. Also, an inappropriate equality constraint on the residual variances greatly impacted estimated class sizes and showed the potential to greatly impact parameter estimates in each class. Results suggest that it is important to make assumptions about residual variances with care and to carefully report what assumptions were made. PMID:26139512

Cyber threat impact assessment and analysis for space vehicle architectures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGraw, Robert M.; Fowler, Mark J.; Umphress, David; MacDonald, Richard A.

2014-06-01

This paper covers research into an assessment of potential impacts and techniques to detect and mitigate cyber attacks that affect the networks and control systems of space vehicles. Such systems, if subverted by malicious insiders, external hackers and/or supply chain threats, can be controlled in a manner to cause physical damage to the space platforms. Similar attacks on Earth-borne cyber physical systems include the Shamoon, Duqu, Flame and Stuxnet exploits. These have been used to bring down foreign power generation and refining systems. This paper discusses the potential impacts of similar cyber attacks on space-based platforms through the use of simulation models, including custom models developed in Python using SimPy and commercial SATCOM analysis tools, as an example STK/SOLIS. The paper discusses the architecture and fidelity of the simulation model that has been developed for performing the impact assessment. The paper walks through the application of an attack vector at the subsystem level and how it affects the control and orientation of the space vehicle. SimPy is used to model and extract raw impact data at the bus level, while STK/SOLIS is used to extract raw impact data at the subsystem level and to visually display the effect on the physical plant of the space vehicle.

Virtual reality simulators for gastrointestinal endoscopy training

PubMed Central

Triantafyllou, Konstantinos; Lazaridis, Lazaros Dimitrios; Dimitriadis, George D

2014-01-01

The use of simulators as educational tools for medical procedures is spreading rapidly and many efforts have been made for their implementation in gastrointestinal endoscopy training. Endoscopy simulation training has been suggested for ascertaining patient safety while positively influencing the trainees’ learning curve. Virtual simulators are the most promising tool among all available types of simulators. These integrated modalities offer a human-like endoscopy experience by combining virtual images of the gastrointestinal tract and haptic realism with using a customized endoscope. From their first steps in the 1980s until today, research involving virtual endoscopic simulators can be divided in two categories: investigation of the impact of virtual simulator training in acquiring endoscopy skills and measuring competence. Emphasis should also be given to the financial impact of their implementation in endoscopy, including the cost of these state-of-the-art simulators and the potential economic benefits from their usage. Advances in technology will contribute to the upgrade of existing models and the development of new ones; while further research should be carried out to discover new fields of application. PMID:24527175

Ozone impact minimization through coordinated scheduling of turnaround operations from multiple olefin plants in an ozone nonattainment area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Sijie; Wang, Sujing; Xu, Qiang; Ho, Thomas

2018-03-01

Turnaround operations (start-up and shutdown) are critical operations in olefin plants, which emit large quantities of VOCs, NOx and CO. The emission has great potentials to impact the ozone level in ozone nonattainment areas. This study demonstrates a novel practice to minimize the ozone impact through coordinated scheduling of turnaround operations from multiple olefin plants located in Houston, Texas, an ozone nonattainment area. The study considered two olefin plants scheduled to conduct turnaround operations: one start-up and one shutdown, simultaneously on the same day within a five-hour window. Through dynamic simulations of the turnaround operations using ASPEN Plus Dynamics and air quality simulations using CAMx, the study predicts the ozone impact from the combined effect of the two turnaround operations under different starting-time scenarios. The simulations predict that the ozone impact from planned turnaround operations ranges from a maximum of 11.4 ppb to a minimum of 1.4 ppb. Hence, a reduction of up to 10.0 ppb can be achieved on a single day based on the selected two simulation days. This study demonstrates a cost-effective and environmentally benign ozone control practice for relevant stakeholders, including environmental agencies, regional plant operators, and local communities.

The Fogo's Collapse-triggered Megatsunami: Evidence-calibrated Numerical Simulations of Tsunamigenic Potential and Coastal Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, Rachid; Ramalho, Ricardo S.; Quartau, Rui; Ramalho, Inês; Madeira, José; Baptista, Maria Ana

2017-04-01

Volcanic Ocean Islands are very prominent and dynamic features involving several constructive and destructive phases during their life-cycles. Large-scale gravitational flank collapses are one of the most destructive processes and can present a major source of hazard, since it has been shown that these events are capable of triggering megatsunamis with significant coastal impact. The Fogo volcanic island, Cape Verde, presents evidence for giant edifice mass-wasting, as attested by both onshore and offshore evidence. A recent study by Ramalho et al. (2015) revealed the presence of tsunamigenic deposits that attest the generation of a megatsunami with devastating impact on the nearby Santiago Island, following Fogo's catastrophic collapse. Evidence from northern Santiago implies local minimum run-ups of 270 m, providing a unique physical framework to test collapse-triggered tsunami numerical simulations. In this study, we investigate the tsunamigenic potential associated with Fogo's flank collapse, and its impact on the Islands of the Cape Verde archipelago using field evidence-calibrated numerical simulations. We first reconstruct the pre-event island morphology, and then employ a multilayer numerical model to simulate the flank failure flow towards and under the sea, the ensuing tsunami generation, propagation and coastal impact. We use a digital elevation model that considers the coastline configuration and the sea level at the time of the event. Preliminary numerical modeling results suggest that collapsed volumes of 90-150 km3, in one single event, generate numerical solutions that are compatible with field evidence. Our simulations suggest that Fogo's collapse triggered a megatsunami that reached the coast of Santiago in 8 min, and with wave heights in excess of 250 m. The tsunami waves propagated with lower amplitudes towards the Cape Verde Islands located northward of Fogo. This study will contribute to more realistically assess the scale of risks associated with these extremely rare but very high impact natural disasters. This work is supported by the EU project ASTARTE -Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013, 6.4-3), the EU project TSUMAPS-NEAM -Agreement Number: ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26, and the IF/01641/2015 MEGAWAVE - FCT project.

GridPV Toolbox

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Broderick, Robert; Quiroz, Jimmy; Grijalva, Santiago

2014-07-15

Matlab Toolbox for simulating the impact of solar energy on the distribution grid. The majority of the functions are useful for interfacing OpenDSS and MATLAB, and they are of generic use for commanding OpenDSS from MATLAB and retrieving GridPV Toolbox information from simulations. A set of functions is also included for modeling PV plant output and setting up the PV plant in the OpenDSS simulation. The toolbox contains functions for modeling the OpenDSS distribution feeder on satellite images with GPS coordinates. Finally, example simulations functions are included to show potential uses of the toolbox functions.

Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis

PubMed Central

Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

2016-01-01

A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement. PMID:26799483

Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis.

PubMed

Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

2016-01-01

A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement.

Epidemiological impact of a syphilis vaccine: a simulation study.

PubMed

Champredon, D; Cameron, C E; Smieja, M; Dushoff, J

2016-11-01

Despite the availability of inexpensive antimicrobial treatment, syphilis remains prevalent worldwide, affecting millions of individuals. Furthermore, syphilis infection is suspected of increasing both susceptibility to, and tendency to transmit, HIV. Development of a syphilis vaccine would be a potentially promising step towards control, but the value of dedicating resources to vaccine development should be evaluated in the context of the anticipated benefits. Here, we use a detailed mathematical model to explore the potential impact of rolling out a hypothetical syphilis vaccine on morbidity from both syphilis and HIV and compare it to the impact of expanded 'screen and treat' programmes using existing treatments. Our results suggest that an efficacious vaccine has the potential to sharply reduce syphilis prevalence under a wide range of scenarios, while expanded treatment interventions are likely to be substantially less effective. Our modelled interventions in our simulated study populations are expected to have little effect on HIV, and in some scenarios lead to small increases in HIV incidence, suggesting that interventions against syphilis should be accompanied with interventions against other sexually transmitted infections to prevent the possibility that lower morbidity or lower perceived risk from syphilis could lead to increases in other sexually transmitted diseases.

Impacts of oil and gas development on the recreation and tourism off the Florida straits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bell, F.

The study was undertaken for the purpose of addressing potential problems of OCS activities on tourism and recreation in Monroe County, Florida. The strategic objective of the study was to develop a model to simulate the effects of various OCS activities on tourism visitation, expenditures, and regional gross economic impacts.

The role of simulation models in monitoring soil organic carbon storage and greenhouse gas mitigation potential in bioenergy cropping systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

There is an increased demand on agricultural systems worldwide to provide food, fiber, and feedstock for the emerging bioenergy industry, raising legitimate concerns on the associated impacts of such intensification on the environment. Of the many ecosystem services that could be impacted by the la...

Prescribed fire effects on field-derived and simulated forest carbon stocks over time

Treesearch

Nicole M. Vaillant; Alicia L. Reiner; Erin K. Noonan-Wright

2013-01-01

To better understand the impact of prescribed fire on carbon stocks, we quantified aboveground and belowground carbon stocks within five pools (live trees and coarse roots, dead trees and coarse roots, live understory vegetation, down woody debris, and litter and duff) and potential carbon emissions from a simulated wildfire before and up to 8 years after prescribed...

A Simulation-Based Methodology for Developing a Standarized Design Template for Future Battle Command Training Centers

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

result of changes that run the gamut from space and staff levels to changes in training requirements to the unit composition on a particular...required of them, as well as a simulation tool that can identify the potential impacts on training as a result of changes that run the gamut from space

Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics-based Wind Representation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prescott, Steven; Smith, Curtis; Hess, Stephen

2016-12-01

As a result of the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP and other operational NPP experience, there is an identified need to better characterize and evaluate the potential impacts of externally generated hazards on NPP safety. Due to the ubiquitous occurrence of high winds around the world and the possible extreme magnitude of the hazard that has been observed, the assessment of the impact of the high-winds hazard has been identified as an important activity by both NPP owner-operators and regulatory authorities. However, recent experience obtained from the conduct of high-winds risk assessments indicates that such activities have beenmore » both labor-intensive and expensive to perform. Additionally, the existing suite of methods and tools to conduct such assessments (which were developed decades ago) do not make use of modern computational architectures (e.g., parallel processing, object-oriented programming techniques, or simple user interfaces) or methods (e.g., efficient and robust numerical-solution schemes). As a result, the current suite of methods and tools will rapidly become obsolete. Physics-based 3D simulation methods can provide information to assist in the RISMC PRA methodology. This research is intended to determine what benefits SPH methods could bring to high-winds simulations for the purposes of assessing their potential impact on NPP safety. The initial investigation has determined that SPH can simulate key areas of high-wind events with reasonable accuracy, compared to other methods. Some problems, such as simulation voids, need to be addressed, but possible solutions have been identified and will be tested with continued work. This work also demonstrated that SPH simulations can provide a means for simulating debris movement; however, further investigations into the capability to determine the impact of high winds and the impacts of wind-driven debris that lead to SSC failures need to be done. SPH simulations alone would be limited in size and computation time. An advanced method of combing results from grid-based methods with SPH through a data-driven model is proposed. This method could allow for more accurate simulation of particle movement near rigid bodies even with larger SPH particle sizes. If successful, the data-driven model would eliminate the need for a SPH turbulence model and increase the simulation domain size. Continued research beyond the scope of this project will be needed in order to determine the viability of a data-driven model.« less

Modeling Momentum Transfer from Kinetic Impacts: Implications for Redirecting Asteroids

DOE PAGES

Stickle, A. M.; Atchison, J. A.; Barnouin, O. S.; ...

2015-05-19

Kinetic impactors are one way to deflect a potentially hazardous object headed for Earth. The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission is designed to test the effectiveness of this approach and is a joint effort between NASA and ESA. The NASA-led portion is the Double Asteroid Redirect Test (DART) and is composed of a ~300-kg spacecraft designed to impact the moon of the binary system 65803 Didymos. The deflection of the moon will be measured by the ESA-led Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) (which will characterize the moon) and from ground-based observations. Because the material properties and internal structure ofmore » the target are poorly constrained, however, analytical models and numerical simulations must be used to understand the range of potential outcomes. Here, we describe a modeling effort combining analytical models and CTH simulations to determine possible outcomes of the DART impact. We examine a wide parameter space and provide predictions for crater size, ejecta mass, and momentum transfer following the impact into the moon of the Didymos system. For impacts into “realistic” asteroid types, these models produce craters with diameters on the order of 10 m, an imparted Δv of 0.5–2 mm/s and a momentum enhancement of 1.07 to 5 for a highly porous aggregate to a fully dense rock.« less

Estimating peak skin and eye lens dose from neuroperfusion examinations: use of Monte Carlo based simulations and comparisons to CTDIvol, AAPM Report No. 111, and ImPACT dosimetry tool values.

PubMed

Zhang, Di; Cagnon, Chris H; Villablanca, J Pablo; McCollough, Cynthia H; Cody, Dianna D; Zankl, Maria; Demarco, John J; McNitt-Gray, Michael F

2013-09-01

CT neuroperfusion examinations are capable of delivering high radiation dose to the skin or lens of the eyes of a patient and can possibly cause deterministic radiation injury. The purpose of this study is to: (a) estimate peak skin dose and eye lens dose from CT neuroperfusion examinations based on several voxelized adult patient models of different head size and (b) investigate how well those doses can be approximated by some commonly used CT dose metrics or tools, such as CTDIvol, American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and the ImPACT organ dose calculator spreadsheet. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to estimate peak skin and eye lens dose on voxelized patient models, including GSF's Irene, Frank, Donna, and Golem, on four scanners from the major manufacturers at the widest collimation under all available tube potentials. Doses were reported on a per 100 mAs basis. CTDIvol measurements for a 16 cm CTDI phantom, AAPM Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and ImPACT calculations were performed for available scanners at all tube potentials. These were then compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations. The dose variations across the different voxelized patient models were small. Dependent on the tube potential and scanner and patient model, CTDIvol values overestimated peak skin dose by 26%-65%, and overestimated eye lens dose by 33%-106%, when compared to Monte Carlo simulations. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements were much closer to peak skin estimates ranging from a 14% underestimate to a 33% overestimate, and with eye lens dose estimates ranging from a 9% underestimate to a 66% overestimate. The ImPACT spreadsheet overestimated eye lens dose by 2%-82% relative to voxelized model simulations. CTDIvol consistently overestimates dose to eye lens and skin. The ImPACT tool also overestimated dose to eye lenses. As such they are still useful as a conservative predictor of dose for CT neuroperfusion studies. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements are a better predictor of both peak skin and eye lens dose than CTDIvol and ImPACT for the patient models used in this study. It should be remembered that both the AAPM Report No. 111 peak dose metric and CTDIvol dose metric are dose indices and were not intended to represent actual organ doses.

Estimating peak skin and eye lens dose from neuroperfusion examinations: Use of Monte Carlo based simulations and comparisons to CTDIvol, AAPM Report No. 111, and ImPACT dosimetry tool values

PubMed Central

Zhang, Di; Cagnon, Chris H.; Villablanca, J. Pablo; McCollough, Cynthia H.; Cody, Dianna D.; Zankl, Maria; Demarco, John J.; McNitt-Gray, Michael F.

2013-01-01

Purpose: CT neuroperfusion examinations are capable of delivering high radiation dose to the skin or lens of the eyes of a patient and can possibly cause deterministic radiation injury. The purpose of this study is to: (a) estimate peak skin dose and eye lens dose from CT neuroperfusion examinations based on several voxelized adult patient models of different head size and (b) investigate how well those doses can be approximated by some commonly used CT dose metrics or tools, such as CTDIvol, American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and the ImPACT organ dose calculator spreadsheet. Methods: Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to estimate peak skin and eye lens dose on voxelized patient models, including GSF's Irene, Frank, Donna, and Golem, on four scanners from the major manufacturers at the widest collimation under all available tube potentials. Doses were reported on a per 100 mAs basis. CTDIvol measurements for a 16 cm CTDI phantom, AAPM Report No. 111 style peak dose measurements, and ImPACT calculations were performed for available scanners at all tube potentials. These were then compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations. Results: The dose variations across the different voxelized patient models were small. Dependent on the tube potential and scanner and patient model, CTDIvol values overestimated peak skin dose by 26%–65%, and overestimated eye lens dose by 33%–106%, when compared to Monte Carlo simulations. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements were much closer to peak skin estimates ranging from a 14% underestimate to a 33% overestimate, and with eye lens dose estimates ranging from a 9% underestimate to a 66% overestimate. The ImPACT spreadsheet overestimated eye lens dose by 2%–82% relative to voxelized model simulations. Conclusions: CTDIvol consistently overestimates dose to eye lens and skin. The ImPACT tool also overestimated dose to eye lenses. As such they are still useful as a conservative predictor of dose for CT neuroperfusion studies. AAPM Report No. 111 style measurements are a better predictor of both peak skin and eye lens dose than CTDIvol and ImPACT for the patient models used in this study. It should be remembered that both the AAPM Report No. 111 peak dose metric and CTDIvol dose metric are dose indices and were not intended to represent actual organ doses. PMID:24007152

The potential effects of volcanic aerosols on cirrus cloud microphysics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, Eric J.; Toon, Owen B.

1992-01-01

The potential impact of volcanic aerosols on nucleation of ice crystals in upper tropospheric cirrus clouds is examined from a microphysical perspective. The sulfuric acid aerosols which form in the stratosphere are presumably transported into the troposphere by sedimentation and tropopause folding. The tropospheric volcanic aerosol size distribution is estimated from 10-micron lidar backscatter and in situ measurements. Microphysical simulations suggest that at temperatures below about -50 C the concentration of ice crystals which nucleate may be as much as a factor of 5 larger when volcanic aerosols are present. The simulations suggest that the presence of volcanic aerosols may increase the net radiative forcing (surface warming) of certain types of cirrus near the tropopause by as much as 8 W/sq m. Further observations are required to determine whether these effects actually occur, and their global impact.

Linking MODFLOW with an agent-based land-use model to support decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reeves, H.W.; Zellner, M.L.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey numerical groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, was integrated with an agent-based land-use model to yield a simulator for environmental planning studies. Ultimately, this integrated simulator will be used as a means to organize information, illustrate potential system responses, and facilitate communication within a participatory modeling framework. Initial results show the potential system response to different zoning policy scenarios in terms of the spatial patterns of development, which is referred to as urban form, and consequent impacts on groundwater levels. These results illustrate how the integrated simulator is capable of representing the complexity of the system. From a groundwater modeling perspective, the most important aspect of the integration is that the simulator generates stresses on the groundwater system within the simulation in contrast to the traditional approach that requires the user to specify the stresses through time. Copyright ?? 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association.

Simulation for System Change: Holland Bloorview's Experience Using Simulation to Enhance the Use of Technology at the Point-Of-Care.

PubMed

Hubley, Darlene; Peacocke, Sean; Maxwell, Joanne; Parker, Kathryn

2015-01-01

Simulation has the potential to invigorate teaching practices, facilitate professional development and impact client care. However, there is little literature on using simulation at the level of organizational change in healthcare. In this paper, the authors explore Holland Bloorview Kids Rehabilitation Hospital's experience using simulation to enhance the use of technology at the point-of-care. The simulation event demonstrated documentation using technology in two typical practice environments and allowed learners to discuss the challenges and opportunities. Participant feedback was positive overall, and this article reveals important lessons to support the future use of simulation as an educational tool for organizational change.

The onset of plasma potential locking

DOE PAGES

Hopkins, Matthew M.; Yee, Benjamin T.; Baalrud, Scott D.; ...

2016-06-22

In this study, we provide insight into the role and impact that a positively biased electrode (anode) has on bulk plasma potential. Using two-dimensional Particle-in-Cell simulations, we investigate the plasma potential as an anode transitions from very small (“probe” mode) to large (“locking” mode). Prior theory provides some guidance on when and how this transition takes place. Initial experimental results are also compared. The simulations demonstrate that as the surface area of the anode is increased transitions in plasma potential and sheath polarity occur, consistent with experimental observations and theoretical predictions. It is expected that understanding this basic plasma behaviormore » will be of interest to basic plasma physics communities, diagnostic developers, and plasma processing devices where control of bulk plasma potential is important.« less

Influence of surgical implantation angle of left ventricular assist device outflow graft and management of aortic valve opening on the risk of stroke in heart failure patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chivukula, V. Keshav; McGah, Patrick; Prisco, Anthony; Beckman, Jennifer; Mokadam, Nanush; Mahr, Claudius; Aliseda, Alberto

2016-11-01

Flow in the aortic vasculature may impact stroke risk in patients with left ventricular assist devices (LVAD) due to severely altered hemodynamics. Patient-specific 3D models of the aortic arch and great vessels were created with an LVAD outflow graft at 45, 60 and 90° from centerline of the ascending aorta, in order to understand the effect of surgical placement on hemodynamics and thrombotic risk. Intermittent aortic valve opening (once every five cardiac cycles) was simulated and the impact of this residual native output investigated for the potential to wash out stagnant flow in the aortic root region. Unsteady CFD simulations with patient-specific boundary conditions were performed. Particle tracking for 10 cardiac cycles was used to determine platelet residence times and shear stress histories. Thrombosis risk was assessed by a combination of Eulerian and Lagrangian metrics and a newly developed thrombogenic potential metric. Results show a strong influence of LVAD outflow graft angle on hemodynamics in the ascending aorta and consequently on stroke risk, with a highly positive impact of aortic valve opening, even at low frequencies. Optimization of LVAD implantation and management strategies based on patient-specific simulations to minimize stroke risk will be presented

Virtual Transgenics: Using a Molecular Biology Simulation to Impact Student Academic Achievement and Attitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shegog, Ross; Lazarus, Melanie M.; Murray, Nancy G.; Diamond, Pamela M.; Sessions, Nathalie; Zsigmond, Eva

2012-10-01

The transgenic mouse model is useful for studying the causes and potential cures for human genetic diseases. Exposing high school biology students to laboratory experience in developing transgenic animal models is logistically prohibitive. Computer-based simulation, however, offers this potential in addition to advantages of fidelity and reach. This study describes and evaluates a computer-based simulation to train advanced placement high school science students in laboratory protocols, a transgenic mouse model was produced. A simulation module on preparing a gene construct in the molecular biology lab was evaluated using a randomized clinical control design with advanced placement high school biology students in Mercedes, Texas ( n = 44). Pre-post tests assessed procedural and declarative knowledge, time on task, attitudes toward computers for learning and towards science careers. Students who used the simulation increased their procedural and declarative knowledge regarding molecular biology compared to those in the control condition (both p < 0.005). Significant increases continued to occur with additional use of the simulation ( p < 0.001). Students in the treatment group became more positive toward using computers for learning ( p < 0.001). The simulation did not significantly affect attitudes toward science in general. Computer simulation of complex transgenic protocols have potential to provide a "virtual" laboratory experience as an adjunct to conventional educational approaches.

Direct dynamics simulation of the impact phase in heel-toe running.

PubMed

Gerritsen, K G; van den Bogert, A J; Nigg, B M

1995-06-01

The influence of muscle activation, position and velocities of body segments at touchdown and surface properties on impact forces during heel-toe running was investigated using a direct dynamics simulation technique. The runner was represented by a two-dimensional four- (rigid body) segment musculo-skeletal model. Incorporated into the muscle model were activation dynamics, force-length and force-velocity characteristics of seven major muscle groups of the lower extremities: mm. glutei, hamstrings, m. rectus femoris, mm. vasti, m. gastrocnemius, m. soleus and m. tibialis anterior. The vertical force-deformation characteristics of heel, shoe and ground were modeled by a non-linear visco-elastic element. The maximum of a typical simulated impact force was 1.6 times body weight. The influence of muscle activation was examined by generating muscle stimulation combinations which produce the same (experimentally determined) resultant joint moments at heelstrike. Simulated impact peak forces with these different combinations of muscle stimulation levels varied less than 10%. Without this restriction on initial joint moments, muscle activation had potentially a much larger effect on impact force. Impact peak force was to a great extent influenced by plantar flexion (85 N per degree of change in foot angle) and vertical velocity of the heel (212 N per 0.1 m s-1 change in velocity) at touchdown. Initial knee flexion (68 N per degree of change in leg angle) also played a role in the absorption of impact. Increased surface stiffness resulted in higher impact peak forces (60 N mm-1 decrease in deformation).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Simulation of metals transport and toxicity at a mine-impacted watershed: California Gulch, Colorado.

PubMed

Velleux, Mark L; Julien, Pierre Y; Rojas-Sanchez, Rosalia; Clements, William H; England, John F

2006-11-15

The transport and toxicity of metals at the California Gulch, Colorado mine-impacted watershed were simulated with a spatially distributed watershed model. Using a database of observations for the period 1984-2004, hydrology, sediment transport, and metals transport were simulated for a June 2003 calibration event and a September 2003 validation event. Simulated flow volumes were within approximately 10% of observed conditions. Observed ranges of total suspended solids, cadmium, copper, and zinc concentrations were also successfully simulated. The model was then used to simulate the potential impacts of a 1-in-100-year rainfall event. Driven by large flows and corresponding soil and sediment erosion for the 1-in-100-year event, estimated solids and metals export from the watershed is 10,000 metric tons for solids, 215 kg for Cu, 520 kg for Cu, and 15,300 kg for Zn. As expressed by the cumulative criterion unit (CCU) index, metals concentrations far exceed toxic effects thresholds, suggesting a high probability of toxic effects downstream of the gulch. More detailed Zn source analyses suggest that much of the Zn exported from the gulch originates from slag piles adjacent to the lower gulch floodplain and an old mining site located near the head of the lower gulch.

The potential of coordinated reservoir operation for flood mitigation in large basins - A case study on the Bavarian Danube using coupled hydrological-hydrodynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibert, S. P.; Skublics, D.; Ehret, U.

2014-09-01

The coordinated operation of reservoirs in large-scale river basins has great potential to improve flood mitigation. However, this requires large scale hydrological models to translate the effect of reservoir operation to downstream points of interest, in a quality sufficient for the iterative development of optimized operation strategies. And, of course, it requires reservoirs large enough to make a noticeable impact. In this paper, we present and discuss several methods dealing with these prerequisites for reservoir operation using the example of three major floods in the Bavarian Danube basin (45,000 km2) and nine reservoirs therein: We start by presenting an approach for multi-criteria evaluation of model performance during floods, including aspects of local sensitivity to simulation quality. Then we investigate the potential of joint hydrologic-2d-hydrodynamic modeling to improve model performance. Based on this, we evaluate upper limits of reservoir impact under idealized conditions (perfect knowledge of future rainfall) with two methods: Detailed simulations and statistical analysis of the reservoirs' specific retention volume. Finally, we investigate to what degree reservoir operation strategies optimized for local (downstream vicinity to the reservoir) and regional (at the Danube) points of interest are compatible. With respect to model evaluation, we found that the consideration of local sensitivities to simulation quality added valuable information not included in the other evaluation criteria (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and Peak timing). With respect to the second question, adding hydrodynamic models to the model chain did, contrary to our expectations, not improve simulations, despite the fact that under idealized conditions (using observed instead of simulated lateral inflow) the hydrodynamic models clearly outperformed the routing schemes of the hydrological models. Apparently, the advantages of hydrodynamic models could not be fully exploited when fed by output from hydrological models afflicted with systematic errors in volume and timing. This effect could potentially be reduced by joint calibration of the hydrological-hydrodynamic model chain. Finally, based on the combination of the simulation-based and statistical impact assessment, we identified one reservoir potentially useful for coordinated, regional flood mitigation for the Danube. While this finding is specific to our test basin, the more interesting and generally valid finding is that operation strategies optimized for local and regional flood mitigation are not necessarily mutually exclusive, sometimes they are identical, sometimes they can, due to temporal offsets, be pursued simultaneously.

Modeling multi-scale aerosol dynamics and micro-environmental air quality near a large highway intersection using the CTAG model.

PubMed

Wang, Yan Jason; Nguyen, Monica T; Steffens, Jonathan T; Tong, Zheming; Wang, Yungang; Hopke, Philip K; Zhang, K Max

2013-01-15

A new methodology, referred to as the multi-scale structure, integrates "tailpipe-to-road" (i.e., on-road domain) and "road-to-ambient" (i.e., near-road domain) simulations to elucidate the environmental impacts of particulate emissions from traffic sources. The multi-scale structure is implemented in the CTAG model to 1) generate process-based on-road emission rates of ultrafine particles (UFPs) by explicitly simulating the effects of exhaust properties, traffic conditions, and meteorological conditions and 2) to characterize the impacts of traffic-related emissions on micro-environmental air quality near a highway intersection in Rochester, NY. The performance of CTAG, evaluated against with the field measurements, shows adequate agreement in capturing the dispersion of carbon monoxide (CO) and the number concentrations of UFPs in the near road micro-environment. As a proof-of-concept case study, we also apply CTAG to separate the relative impacts of the shutdown of a large coal-fired power plant (CFPP) and the adoption of the ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) on UFP concentrations in the intersection micro-environment. Although CTAG is still computationally expensive compared to the widely-used parameterized dispersion models, it has the potential to advance our capability to predict the impacts of UFP emissions and spatial/temporal variations of air pollutants in complex environments. Furthermore, for the on-road simulations, CTAG can serve as a process-based emission model; Combining the on-road and near-road simulations, CTAG becomes a "plume-in-grid" model for mobile emissions. The processed emission profiles can potentially improve regional air quality and climate predictions accordingly. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of Farmers' Knowledge Increase on Farm Profit and Watershed Water Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, D.; Bennett, D. A.

2013-12-01

This study explores the impact that an increase in real-time data might have on farmers' nitrogen management, on-farm profit, and watershed water quality in the Midwestern US. In this study, an agent-based model (ABM) is used to simulate farmers' decisions about nitrogen application rate and timing in corn fields. SWAT (soil-water assessment tool) is used to generate a database that characterizes the response of corn yields to nitrogen fertilizer application and the dynamics of nitrogen loss under different scenarios of rainfall events. The database simulates a scenario where farmers would receive real-time feedback about the fate and impact of nitrogen applied to their fields from in-situ sensors. The ability to transform these data into optimal actions is simulated at multiple levels for farmer agents. In a baseline scenario, the farmer agent is only aware of the yield potential of the land field and single values of N rates for achieving the yield potential and is not aware of N loss from farm fields. Knowledge increase is represented by greater accuracy in predicting rainfall events, and the increase of the number of discrete points in a field-specific quadratic curve that captures crop yield response to various levels of nitrogen perceived by farmer agents. In addition, agents perceive N loss from farm fields at increased temporal resolutions. Correspondingly, agents make adjustments to the rate of N application for crops and the timing of fertilizer application given the rainfall events predictions. Farmers' decisions simulated by the ABM are input into SWAT to model nitrogen concentration in impacted streams. Farm profit statistics and watershed-level nitrogen loads are compared among different scenarios of knowledge increase. The hypothesis that the increase of farmers' knowledge benefits both farm profits and watershed water quality is tested through the comparison.

Potential impacts of carbon taxes on carbon flux in western Oregon private forests

Treesearch

Eun Ho Im; Darius M. Adams; Gregory S. Latta

2007-01-01

This study considers a carbon tax system as a policy tool for encouraging carbon sequestration through modification of management in existing forests and examines its welfare impacts and costs of the carbon sequestered. The simulated carbon tax leads to reduced harvest and increased carbon stock in the standing trees and understory biomass. Changes in the level of...

Modeling the impacts of hemlock woolly adelgid infestation and presalvage harvesting on carbon stocks in northern hemlock forests

Treesearch

Jeffrey Krebs; Jennifer Pontius; Paul G. Schaberg

2017-01-01

To better understand the potential impact of the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA, Adelges tsugae Annand) and presalvage activities on carbon (C) dynamics in northern stands of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.), we used the Forest Vegetation Simulator and Forest Inventory and Analysis data to model C storage and...

Assessing the impacts of federal forest planning on wildfire risk-mitigation in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Michelle A. Day; Karen C. Short; Cody R. Evers

2016-01-01

We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface (WUI) and restoring fire resilient forests. We used simulation modeling to delineate areas on national forests that can potentially transmit fires to...

Evaluating the Potential of Virtual Simulations to Facilitate Professional Learning in Law: A Literature Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thanaraj, Ann

2016-01-01

The use of virtual simulations in Legal Education as a method for learning is relatively rare despite much theoretical support that exists for the benefits in learning. There is also some apprehension on the use of technology in legal education. Both of these are likely due to the lack of solid evaluations concerning the overall impact in…

New method for qualitative simulations of water resources systems. 2. Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Antunes, M.P.; Seixas, M.J.; Camara, A.S.

1987-11-01

SLIN (Simulacao Linguistica) is a new method for qualitative dynamic simulation. As was presented previously, SLIN relies upon a categorical representation of variables which are manipulated by logical rules. Two applications to water resources systems are included to illustrate SLIN's potential usefulness: the environmental impact evaluation of a hydropower plant and the assessment of oil dispersion in the sea after a tanker wreck.

Sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on groundwater recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, I. P.

2007-12-01

This paper assesses the significance of the many sources of uncertainty in future groundwater recharge estimation, based on lessons learnt from an integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic change on groundwater recharge in East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect simulations of future groundwater recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping, rotations and management practices. Stochastic modelling of potential recharge showed median annual recharge decreasing under a High emissions future from 75 mm (1961-90) to 56 mm in the 2020s and 45 mm in the 2050s. However, the median values for individual simulations ranged from 46-75 mm (2020s) and 30-71 mm (2050s) highlighting a decreasing but uncertain trend. The impacts of (and uncertainty in) the climate scenarios are generally regionally more important than those of the socio-economic scenarios. However, locally, the impacts of the socio-economic scenarios can be significant, especially where there are large increases in urbanization, agricultural land cover, bioenergy production, or agricultural management practices. For example, management of soil conditions can increase potential groundwater recharge by around 5 %, but poor management can further reduce potential recharge by up to 15 %. The paper will demonstrate that to focus on the direct impacts of climate change is to neglect the potentially important role of policy, societal values and economic processes in shaping the landscape above aquifers. If the likely consequences of future changes of groundwater recharge, resulting from both climate and socio-economic change, are to be assessed, hydrogeologists must increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines, such as socio-economists, agricultural modellers and soil scientists

Three-dimensional simulation of a rock slide impact into water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, R.; Gisler, G.; Gittings, M.; Ranta, D.

2007-12-01

The steep-sided fjords of western Norway have experienced numerous rock slide events that sometimes produced devastating tsunamis. The 1934 slide in the Tafjord region, when some 3 million cubic meters of rock plunged into the water, resulted in waves tens of meters high that destroyed two villages and killed about 40 people. A similarly dangerous situation exists now in Sunnylvsfjord, where a major expanding crack in the fjord wall at Aknes threatens to release from 5 to 40 million cubic meters of rock into the water. Such an event would devastate a large region, including the Geiranger Fjord, a UN World Heritage Site that is extremely popular with tourists. The Norwegian Government's Aknes-Tafjord project is responsible for studying and monitoring the potential slide area and for providing adequate warning to protect lives and property. In order to better understand tsunami generation from such events, we have performed 3-dimensional fully compressible hydrodynamical simulations of the impact of a large number of boulders from a steep slope into a deep body of water. We use the Los Alamos/SAIC adaptive-mesh-refined SAGE code, previously used to model tsunamis from underwater explosions, asteroid impacts, and both subaqueous and subaerial landslide sources. We find the interaction of boulders and water to be extremely turbulent and dissipative. It differs markedly from simulations of large-block impacts in similar geometry. No more than about 15% of the potential energy of the boulders ends up in the water wave. The rest of the energy goes into heating the boulders (and presumably fragmenting them, though that physics is not included) into generating winds, heating air and water, and generating turbulence. In the near field, the waves produced by the impact can be quite high -- tens of meters -- and have the potential to devastate coastlines at substantial distances from the site along a narrow fjord system.

Survey of computer programs for prediction of crash response and of its experimental validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kamat, M. P.

1976-01-01

The author seeks to critically assess the potentialities of the mathematical and hybrid simulators which predict post-impact response of transportation vehicles. A strict rigorous numerical analysis of a complex phenomenon like crash may leave a lot to be desired with regard to the fidelity of mathematical simulation. Hybrid simulations on the other hand which exploit experimentally observed features of deformations appear to hold a lot of promise. MARC, ANSYS, NONSAP, DYCAST, ACTION, WHAM II and KRASH are among some of the simulators examined for their capabilities with regard to prediction of post impact response of vehicles. A review of these simulators reveals that much more by way of an analysis capability may be desirable than what is currently available. NASA's crashworthiness testing program in conjunction with similar programs of various other agencies, besides generating a large data base, will be equally useful in the validation of new mathematical concepts of nonlinear analysis and in the successful extension of other techniques in crashworthiness.

Reduction of Potential Fire Behavior in Wildland-urban Interface Communities in Southern California: A Collaborative Approach

Treesearch

Christopher A. Dicus; Michael E. Scott

2006-01-01

This manuscript details a collaborative effort that reduced the risk of wildfire in an affluent, wildland-urban interface community in southern California while simultaneously minimizing the environmental impact to the site. FARSITE simulations illustrated the potential threat to the community of Rancho Santa Fe in San Diego County, California, where multimillion-...

The Impact of Continental Configuration on Global Response to Large Igneous Province Eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stellmann, J.; West, A. J.; Ridgwell, A.; Becker, T. W.

2017-12-01

The impact of Large Igneous Province eruptions as recorded in the geologic record varies widely; some eruptions cause global warming, large scale ocean acidification and anoxia and mass extinctions while others cause some or none of these phenomena. There are several potential factors which may determine the global response to a Large Igneous Province eruption; here we consider continental configuration. The arrangement of continents controls the extent of shallow seas, ocean circulation and planetary albedo; all factors which impact global climate and its response to sudden changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. To assess the potential impact of continental configuration, a suite of simulated eruptions was carried out using the cGENIE Earth system model in two end-member continental configurations: the end-Permian supercontinent and the modern. Eruptions simulated are comparable to an individual pulse of a Large Igneous Province eruption with total CO2 emissions of 1,000 or 10,000 GtC erupted over 1,000 or 10,000 years, spanning eruptions rates of .1-10 GtC/yr. Global response is characterized by measuring the magnitude and duration of changes to atmospheric concentration of CO2, saturation state of calcite and ocean oxygen levels. Preliminary model results show that end-Permian continental configuration and conditions (radiative balance, ocean chemistry) lead to smaller magnitude and shorter duration changes in atmospheric pCO2 and ocean saturation state of calcite following the simulated eruption than the modern configuration.

Mechanical impact of dynamic phenomena in Francis turbines at off design conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duparchy, F.; Brammer, J.; Thibaud, M.; Favrel, A.; Lowys, P. Y.; Avellan, F.

2017-04-01

At partial load and overload conditions, Francis turbines are subjected to hydraulic instabilities that can potentially result in high dynamic solicitations of the turbine components and significantly reduce their lifetime. This study presents both experimental data and numerical simulations that were used as complementary approaches to study these dynamic solicitations. Measurements performed on a reduced scale physical model, including a special runner instrumented with on-board strain gauges and pressure sensors, were used to investigate the dynamic phenomena experienced by the runner. They were also taken as reference to validate the numerical simulation results. After validation, advantage was taken from the numerical simulations to highlight the mechanical response of the structure to the unsteady hydraulic phenomena, as well as their impact on the fatigue damage of the runner.

Agent-based assessment of stormwater re-use potential of low-impact development control facilities at the site of Vlasina Lake, Serbia.

PubMed

Blagojević, Borislava; Milićević, Dragan; Potić, Olivera

2013-01-01

Vlasina Lake in south-east Serbia is classified as an Area of Distinct Land Use and, as such, is subject to high environmental protection standards applied in the Master Plan. Two open channels for stormwater and sediment transportation to two large detention basins with pumping stations for water evacuation into the lake were envisaged in the Master Plan. In the preliminary design, the stormwater system was quite different: wherever possible, on-site natural features were used for allocation of ponds, and drainage channels were led through existing road culverts. The applied design concept has been low impact development (LID), which led to potential blue-green corridors, recognized by project stakeholders. The paper studies the possibility of using ponds as a key element of both the LID concept and the blue-green corridors approach. For that purpose, an initial Vlasina Lake site agent-based simulation model has been created. A realistic physical model is included, and simulation results for two hypothetical climatic and socio-economic scenarios are presented. From the experience in creating the agent-based model, and based on the simulation results, recommendations are given for further work. It is shown that ponds have potential for the investigated water re-use purposes.

Realistic and efficient 2D crack simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadegar, Jacob; Liu, Xiaoqing; Singh, Abhishek

2010-04-01

Although numerical algorithms for 2D crack simulation have been studied in Modeling and Simulation (M&S) and computer graphics for decades, realism and computational efficiency are still major challenges. In this paper, we introduce a high-fidelity, scalable, adaptive and efficient/runtime 2D crack/fracture simulation system by applying the mathematically elegant Peano-Cesaro triangular meshing/remeshing technique to model the generation of shards/fragments. The recursive fractal sweep associated with the Peano-Cesaro triangulation provides efficient local multi-resolution refinement to any level-of-detail. The generated binary decomposition tree also provides efficient neighbor retrieval mechanism used for mesh element splitting and merging with minimal memory requirements essential for realistic 2D fragment formation. Upon load impact/contact/penetration, a number of factors including impact angle, impact energy, and material properties are all taken into account to produce the criteria of crack initialization, propagation, and termination leading to realistic fractal-like rubble/fragments formation. The aforementioned parameters are used as variables of probabilistic models of cracks/shards formation, making the proposed solution highly adaptive by allowing machine learning mechanisms learn the optimal values for the variables/parameters based on prior benchmark data generated by off-line physics based simulation solutions that produce accurate fractures/shards though at highly non-real time paste. Crack/fracture simulation has been conducted on various load impacts with different initial locations at various impulse scales. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed system has the capability to realistically and efficiently simulate 2D crack phenomena (such as window shattering and shards generation) with diverse potentials in military and civil M&S applications such as training and mission planning.

Giant Impacts on Earth-Like Worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Susanna

2016-05-01

Earth has experienced a large number of impacts, from the cratering events that may have caused mass extinctions to the enormous impact believed to have formed the Moon. A new study examines whether our planets impact history is typical for Earth-like worlds.N-Body ChallengesTimeline placing the authors simulations in context of the history of our solar system (click for a closer look). [Quintana et al. 2016]The final stages of terrestrial planet formation are thought to be dominated by giant impacts of bodies in the protoplanetary disk. During this stage, protoplanets smash into one another and accrete, greatly influencing the growth, composition, and habitability of the final planets.There are two major challenges when simulating this N-body planet formation. The first is fragmentation: since computational time scales as N^2, simulating lots of bodies that split into many more bodies is very computationally intensive. For this reason, fragmentation is usually ignored; simulations instead assume perfect accretion during collisions.Total number of bodies remaining within the authors simulations over time, with fragmentation included (grey) and ignored (red). Both simulations result in the same final number of bodies, but the ones that include fragmentation take more time to reach that final number. [Quintana et al. 2016]The second challengeis that many-body systems are chaotic, which means its necessary to do a large number of simulations to make statistical statements about outcomes.Adding FragmentationA team of scientists led by Elisa Quintana (NASA NPP Senior Fellow at the Ames Research Center) has recently pushed at these challenges by modeling inner-planet formation using a code that does include fragmentation. The team ran 140 simulations with and 140 without the effects of fragmentation using similar initial conditions to understand how including fragmentation affects the outcome.Quintana and collaborators then used the fragmentation-inclusive simulations to examine the collisional histories of Earth-like planets that form. Their goal is to understand if our solar systems formation and evolution is typical or unique.How Common Are Giant Impacts?Histogram of the total number of giant impacts received by the 164 Earth-like worlds produced in the authors fragmentation-inclusive simulations. [Quintana et al. 2016]The authors find that including fragmentation does not affect the final number of planets that are formed in the simulation (an average of 34 in each system, consistent with our solar systems terrestrial planet count). But when fragmentation is included, fewer collisions end in merger which results in typical accretion timescales roughly doubling. So the effects of fragmentation influence the collisional history of the system and the length of time needed for the final system to form.Examining the 164 Earth-analogs produced in the fragmentation-inclusive simulations, Quintana and collaborators find that impacts large enough to completely strip a planets atmosphere are rare; fewer than 1% of the Earth-like worlds experienced this.But giant impacts that are able to strip ~50% of an Earth-analogs atmosphere roughly the energy of the giant impact thought to have formed our Moon are more common. Almost all of the authors Earth-analogs experienced at least 1 giant impact of this size in the 2-Gyr simulation, and the average Earth-like world experienced ~3 such impacts.These results suggest that our planets impact history with the Moon-forming impact likely being the last giant impact Earth experienced is fairly typical for Earth-like worlds. The outcomes also indicate that smaller impacts that are still potentially life-threatening are much more common than bulk atmospheric removal. Higher-resolution simulations could be used to examine such smaller impacts.CitationElisa V. Quintana et al 2016 ApJ 821 126. doi:10.3847/0004-637X/821/2/126

Adsorption of charged protein residues on an inorganic nanosheet: Computer simulation of LDH interaction with ion channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsukanov, Alexey A.; Psakhie, Sergey G.

2016-08-01

Quasi-two-dimensional and hybrid nanomaterials based on layered double hydroxides (LDH), cationic clays, layered oxyhydroxides and hydroxides of metals possess large specific surface area and strong electrostatic properties with permanent or pH-dependent electric charge. Such nanomaterials may impact cellular electrostatics, changing the ion balance, pH and membrane potential. Selective ion adsorption/exchange may alter the transmembrane electrochemical gradient, disrupting potential-dependent cellular processes. Cellular proteins as a rule have charged residues which can be effectively adsorbed on the surface of layered hydroxide based nanomaterials. The aim of this study is to attempt to shed some light on the possibility and mechanisms of protein "adhesion" an LDH nanosheet and to propose a new direction in anticancer medicine, based on physical impact and strong electrostatics. An unbiased molecular dynamics simulation was performed and the combined process free energy estimation (COPFEE) approach was used.

Physics, chemistry and pulmonary sequelae of thermodegradation events in long-mission space flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Todd, Paul; Sklar, Michael; Ramirez, W. Fred; Smith, Gerald J.; Morgenthaler, George W.; Oberdoerster, Guenter

1993-01-01

An event in which electronic insulation consisting of polytetrafluoroethylene undergoes thermodegradation on the Space Station Freedom is considered experimentally and theoretically from the initial chemistry and convective transport through pulmonary deposition in humans. The low-gravity enviroment impacts various stages of event simulation. Vapor-phase and particulate thermodegradation products were considered as potential spacecraft contaminants. A potential pathway for the production of ultrafine particles was identified. Different approaches to the simulation and prediction of contaminant transport were studied and used to predict the distribution of generic vapor-phase products in a Space Station model. A lung transport model was used to assess the pulmonary distribution of inhaled particles, and, finally, the impact of adaptation to low gravity on the human response to this inhalation risk was explored on the basis of known physiological modifications of the immune, endocrine, musculoskeletal and pulmonary systems that accompany space flight.

Computer simulation of the effects of shoe cushioning on internal and external loading during running impacts.

PubMed

Miller, Ross H; Hamill, Joseph

2009-08-01

Biomechanical aspects of running injuries are often inferred from external loading measurements. However, previous research has suggested that relationships between external loading and potential injury-inducing internal loads can be complex and nonintuitive. Further, the loading response to training interventions can vary widely between subjects. In this study, we use a subject-specific computer simulation approach to estimate internal and external loading of the distal tibia during the impact phase for two runners when running in shoes with different midsole cushioning parameters. The results suggest that: (1) changes in tibial loading induced by footwear are not reflected by changes in ground reaction force (GRF) magnitudes; (2) the GRF loading rate is a better surrogate measure of tibial loading and stress fracture risk than the GRF magnitude; and (3) averaging results across groups may potentially mask differential responses to training interventions between individuals.

Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mengis, N.; Martin, T.; Keller, D. P.; Oschlies, A.

2016-05-01

The ice albedo feedback is one of the key factors of accelerated temperature increase in the high northern latitudes under global warming. This study assesses climate impacts and risks of idealized Arctic Ocean albedo modification (AOAM), a proposed climate engineering method, during transient climate change simulations with varying representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. We find no potential for reversing trends in all assessed Arctic climate metrics under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. AOAM only yields an initial offset during the first years after implementation. Nevertheless, sea ice loss can be delayed by 25(60) years in the RCP8.5(RCP4.5) scenario and the delayed thawing of permafrost soils in the AOAM simulations prevents up to 40(32) Pg of carbon from being released by 2100. AOAM initially dampens the decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning and delays the onset of open ocean deep convection in the Nordic Seas under the RCP scenarios. Both these processes cause a subsurface warming signal in the AOAM simulations relative to the default RCP simulations with the potential to destabilize Arctic marine gas hydrates. Furthermore, in 2100, the RCP8.5 AOAM simulation diverts more from the 2005-2015 reference state in many climate metrics than the RCP4.5 simulation without AOAM. Considering the demonstrated risks, we conclude that concerning longer time scales, reductions in emissions remain the safest and most effective way to prevent severe changes in the Arctic.

Ab initio calculation of thermodynamic potentials and entropies for superionic water

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

French, Martin; Desjarlais, Michael P.; Redmer, Ronald

We construct thermodynamic potentials for two superionic phases of water [with body-centered cubic (bcc) and face-centered cubic (fcc) oxygen lattice] using a combination of density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics simulations (MD). For this purpose, a generic expression for the free energy of warm dense matter is developed and parametrized with equation of state data from the DFT-MD simulations. A second central aspect is the accurate determination of the entropy, which is done using an approximate two-phase method based on the frequency spectra of the nuclear motion. The boundary between the bcc superionic phase and the ices VII andmore » X calculated with thermodynamic potentials from DFT-MD is consistent with that directly derived from the simulations. As a result, differences in the physical properties of the bcc and fcc superionic phases and their impact on interior modeling of water-rich giant planets are discussed.« less

Ab initio calculation of thermodynamic potentials and entropies for superionic water

DOE PAGES

French, Martin; Desjarlais, Michael P.; Redmer, Ronald

2016-02-25

We construct thermodynamic potentials for two superionic phases of water [with body-centered cubic (bcc) and face-centered cubic (fcc) oxygen lattice] using a combination of density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics simulations (MD). For this purpose, a generic expression for the free energy of warm dense matter is developed and parametrized with equation of state data from the DFT-MD simulations. A second central aspect is the accurate determination of the entropy, which is done using an approximate two-phase method based on the frequency spectra of the nuclear motion. The boundary between the bcc superionic phase and the ices VII andmore » X calculated with thermodynamic potentials from DFT-MD is consistent with that directly derived from the simulations. As a result, differences in the physical properties of the bcc and fcc superionic phases and their impact on interior modeling of water-rich giant planets are discussed.« less

Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration modeling and climate projections.

PubMed

Gharbia, Salem S; Smullen, Trevor; Gill, Laurence; Johnston, Paul; Pilla, Francesco

2018-08-15

Evapotranspiration integrates energy and mass transfer between the Earth's surface and atmosphere and is the most active mechanism linking the atmosphere, hydrosphsophere, lithosphere and biosphere. This study focuses on the fine resolution modeling and projection of spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment scale as response to climate change. Six potential evapotranspiration designed algorithms, systematically selected based on a structured criteria and data availability, have been applied and then validated to long-term mean monthly data for the Shannon River catchment with a 50m 2 cell size. The best validated algorithm was therefore applied to evaluate the possible effect of future climate change on potential evapotranspiration rates. Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration projections have been modeled based on climate change projections from multi-GCM ensembles for three future time intervals (2020, 2050 and 2080) using a range of different Representative Concentration Pathways producing four scenarios for each time interval. Finally, seasonal results have been compared to baseline results to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential evapotranspiration and therefor on the catchment dynamical water balance. The results present evidence that the modeled climate change scenarios would have a significant impact on the future potential evapotranspiration rates. All the simulated scenarios predicted an increase in potential evapotranspiration for each modeled future time interval, which would significantly affect the dynamical catchment water balance. This study addresses the gap in the literature of using GIS-based algorithms to model fine-scale spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems based on climatological observations and simulations in different climatological zones. Providing fine-scale potential evapotranspiration data is very crucial to assess the dynamical catchment water balance to setup management scenarios for the water abstractions. This study illustrates a transferable systematic method to design GIS-based algorithms to simulate spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Care-givers' reflections on an ethics education immersive simulation care experience: A series of epiphanous events.

PubMed

Gallagher, Ann; Peacock, Matthew; Zasada, Magdalena; Coucke, Trees; Cox, Anna; Janssens, Nele

2017-07-01

There has been little previous scholarship regarding the aims, options and impact of ethics education on residential care-givers. This manuscript details findings from a pragmatic cluster trial evaluating the impact of three different approaches to ethics education. The focus of the article is on one of the interventions, an immersive simulation experience. The simulation experience required residential care-givers to assume the profile of elderly care-recipients for a 24-hr period. The care-givers were student nurses. The project was reviewed favourably by a university ethics committee, and participants provided informed consent. Data from six postsimulation experience focus groups were analysed thematically and three themes were identified: the experience of vulnerability, dignity in care and the organisation of care. Findings suggest that the immersive simulation experience had a powerful immediate impact as participants described epiphanous insights relating to their care experiences. It is suggested that reflecting on and recording epiphanous events has the potential to sustain ethical care practices. Further research is required to evaluate the impact of different ethics education interventions in different cultural contexts. Exploration is also required regarding the meaning and significance of care epiphanies, those "most delicate and evanescent of moments," for the sustainability of ethical care. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Transonic Flow Computations Using Nonlinear Potential Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holst, Terry L.; Kwak, Dochan (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

This presentation describes the state of transonic flow simulation using nonlinear potential methods for external aerodynamic applications. The presentation begins with a review of the various potential equation forms (with emphasis on the full potential equation) and includes a discussion of pertinent mathematical characteristics and all derivation assumptions. Impact of the derivation assumptions on simulation accuracy, especially with respect to shock wave capture, is discussed. Key characteristics of all numerical algorithm types used for solving nonlinear potential equations, including steady, unsteady, space marching, and design methods, are described. Both spatial discretization and iteration scheme characteristics are examined. Numerical results for various aerodynamic applications are included throughout the presentation to highlight key discussion points. The presentation ends with concluding remarks and recommendations for future work. Overall. nonlinear potential solvers are efficient, highly developed and routinely used in the aerodynamic design environment for cruise conditions. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global food security under climate change

PubMed Central

Schmidhuber, Josef; Tubiello, Francesco N.

2007-01-01

This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed socio-economic development. The likely impacts of climate change on the other important dimensions of food security are discussed qualitatively, indicating the potential for further negative impacts beyond those currently assessed with models. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of current assessment studies are discussed, suggesting improvements and proposing avenues for new analyses. PMID:18077404

Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator.

Treesearch

Bruce A. McCarl; Darius M. Adams; Ralph J. Alig; Diana Burton; Chi-Chung. Chen

2000-01-01

A multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming economic model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the US forest sector. A wide range of scenarios for the biological response of forests to climate change are developed, ranging from small to large changes in forest growth rates. These scenarios are simulated in the economic...

How fuel treatment types, locations, and amounts impact landscape-scale fire behavior and carbon dynamics

Treesearch

Christopher A. Dicus; Kevin J. Osborne

2015-01-01

When managing for fire across a large landscape, the types of fuel treatments, the locations of treatments, and the percentage of the landscape being treated should all interact to impact not only potential fire size, but also carbon dynamics across that landscape. To investigate these interactions, we utilized a forest growth model (FVS-FFE) and fire simulation...

Potential impacts of offshore oil spills on polar bears in the Chukchi Sea.

PubMed

Wilson, Ryan R; Perham, Craig; French-McCay, Deborah P; Balouskus, Richard

2018-04-01

Sea ice decline is anticipated to increase human access to the Arctic Ocean allowing for offshore oil and gas development in once inaccessible areas. Given the potential negative consequences of an oil spill on marine wildlife populations in the Arctic, it is important to understand the magnitude of impact a large spill could have on wildlife to inform response planning efforts. In this study we simulated oil spills that released 25,000 barrels of oil for 30 days in autumn originating from two sites in the Chukchi Sea (one in Russia and one in the U.S.) and tracked the distribution of oil for 76 days. We then determined the potential impact such a spill might have on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and their habitat by overlapping spills with maps of polar bear habitat and movement trajectories. Only a small proportion (1-10%) of high-value polar bear sea ice habitat was directly affected by oil sufficient to impact bears. However, 27-38% of polar bears in the region were potentially exposed to oil. Oil consistently had the highest probability of reaching Wrangel and Herald islands, important areas of denning and summer terrestrial habitat. Oil did not reach polar bears until approximately 3 weeks after the spills. Our study found the potential for significant impacts to polar bears under a worst case discharge scenario, but suggests that there is a window of time where effective containment efforts could minimize exposure to bears. Our study provides a framework for wildlife managers and planners to assess the level of response that would be required to treat exposed wildlife and where spill response equipment might be best stationed. While the size of spill we simulated has a low probability of occurring, it provides an upper limit for planners to consider when crafting response plans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Comparison of Damage from Hydrocode Simulations of an Asteroid Airburst or Impact on Land, in Deep, or in Shallow Water

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Darrel; Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan

2017-01-01

If an asteroid is discovered to be on a collision course with Earth and there is insufficient time for a deflection effort to make it miss Earth completely, should it be redirected to a land or ocean impact? While distance from densely populated areas should obviously be maximized, the differing ability of air blast, seismic waves, and tsunami waves to cause damage at distance does not make the choice between land and ocean impacts an immediately obvious one. More broadly this work is a step towards improving damage models from asteroid impacts. This extended abstract follows the hypothetical scenario of the 2017 IAA Planetary Defense Conference where a 100-250m diameter asteroid is on a potential impact course with Earth. A hydrocode was used to simulate impacts into the most sparsely populated areas along the eastern end of the hypothetical impact corridor- specifically in the Gobi Desert, in the shallow waters of the Sea of Japan, and in the deep waters of the Japan Trench in the Pacific Ocean.

Intensification of hydrological drought due to human activity in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Dan; Zhang, Qi; Qiu, Jiaming; Bai, Peng; Liang, Kang; Li, Xianghu

2018-10-01

Hydrological extremes are changing under the impacts of environmental change, i.e., climate variation and human activity, which can substantially influence ecosystems and the living environment of humans in affected region. This study investigates the impacts of environmental change on hydrological drought in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in China based on hydrological modelling. Change points for streamflow into two major lakes and a reservoir in the study area were detected in the late 1980s using the Mann-Kendall test. Streamflow simulation by a water balance model was performed, and the resulting Kling-Gupta efficiency value was >0.90. Hydrological drought events were identified based on the simulated streamflow under different scenarios. The results show that the hydrological drought occurrence was increased by precipitation, whereas the drought peak value was increased by potential evapotranspiration. The impacts of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration on drought severity and duration varied in the study area. However, hydrological drought was intensified by the influence of human activity, which increased the severity, duration and peak value of droughts. The dominant factor for hydrological drought severity is precipitation, followed by potential evapotranspiration and human activity. The impacts of climate variation and human activity on drought severity are larger than on drought duration. In addition, environmental change is shown to have an "accumulation effect" on hydrological drought, demonstrating that the indirect impacts of environmental change on hydrological drought are much larger than the direct impacts on streamflow. This study improves our understanding of the responses of hydrological extremes to environmental change, which is useful for the management of water resources and the prediction of hydrological disasters. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulating the impact of excise taxation for disease prevention in low-income and middle-income countries: an application to South Africa

PubMed Central

Summan, Amit; Tugendhaft, Aviva; Laxminarayan, Ramanan; Hofman, Karen

2018-01-01

Introduction Excise taxes are policy tools that have been applied internationally with some success to reduce consumption of products adversely impacting population health including tobacco, alcohol and increasingly junk foods and sugary beverages. As in other low-income and middle-income countries, South Africa faces a growing burden of lifestyle diseases; accordingly we simulate the impact of multiple excise tax interventions in this setting. Methods We construct a mathematical model to simulate the health and revenue effects of increased excise taxes, which is adaptable to a variety of settings given its limited data requirements. Applying the model to South Africa, we simulate the impact of increased tax rates on tobacco and beer and of the introduction of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). Drawing on surveys of product usage and risk factor prevalence, the model uses a potential impact fraction to simulate the health effects of tax interventions. Results Adopting an excise rate of 60% on tobacco would result in a gain of 858 923 life-years (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 480 188 to 1 310 329), while adopting an excise rate of 25% on beer would result in a gain of 568 063 life-years (95% UI 412 110 to 775 560) and the adoption of a 20% tax on SSBs would result in a gain of 688 719 life-years (95% UI 321 788 to 1 079 653). Conclusion More aggressive excise tax policies on tobacco, beer and SSBs in South Africa could result in meaningful improvements in population health and raised revenue. PMID:29515917

Simulating the impact of excise taxation for disease prevention in low-income and middle-income countries: an application to South Africa.

PubMed

Stacey, Nicholas; Summan, Amit; Tugendhaft, Aviva; Laxminarayan, Ramanan; Hofman, Karen

2018-01-01

Excise taxes are policy tools that have been applied internationally with some success to reduce consumption of products adversely impacting population health including tobacco, alcohol and increasingly junk foods and sugary beverages. As in other low-income and middle-income countries, South Africa faces a growing burden of lifestyle diseases; accordingly we simulate the impact of multiple excise tax interventions in this setting. We construct a mathematical model to simulate the health and revenue effects of increased excise taxes, which is adaptable to a variety of settings given its limited data requirements. Applying the model to South Africa, we simulate the impact of increased tax rates on tobacco and beer and of the introduction of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). Drawing on surveys of product usage and risk factor prevalence, the model uses a potential impact fraction to simulate the health effects of tax interventions. Adopting an excise rate of 60% on tobacco would result in a gain of 858 923 life-years (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 480 188 to 1 310 329), while adopting an excise rate of 25% on beer would result in a gain of 568 063 life-years (95% UI 412 110 to 775 560) and the adoption of a 20% tax on SSBs would result in a gain of 688 719 life-years (95% UI 321 788 to 1 079 653). More aggressive excise tax policies on tobacco, beer and SSBs in South Africa could result in meaningful improvements in population health and raised revenue.

Air quality impacts of distributed power generation in the South Coast Air Basin of California 1: Scenario development and modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, M. A.; Carreras-Sospedra, M.; Medrano, M.; Brouwer, J.; Samuelsen, G. S.; Dabdub, D.

Distributed generation (DG) is generally defined as the operation of many small stationary power generators throughout an urban air basin. Although DG has the potential to supply a significant portion of the increased power demands in California and the rest of the United States, it may lead to increased levels of in-basin pollutants and adversely impact urban air quality. This study focuses on two main objectives: (1) the systematic characterization of DG installation in urban air basins, and (2) the simulation of potential air quality impacts using a state-of-the-art three-dimensional computational model. A general and systematic approach is devised to construct five realistic and 21 spanning scenarios of DG implementation in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California. Realistic scenarios reflect an anticipated level of DG deployment in the SoCAB by the year 2010. Spanning scenarios are developed to determine the potential impacts of unexpected outcomes. Realistic implementations of DG in the SoCAB result in small differences in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the basin compared to the baseline simulations. The baseline accounts for population increase, but does not consider any future emissions control measures. Model results for spanning implementations with extra high DG market penetration show that domain-wide ozone peak concentrations increase significantly. Also, air quality impacts of spanning implementations when DG operate during a 6-h period are larger than when the same amount of emissions are introduced during a 24-h period.

Impact simulation in the gravity regime: Exploring the effects of parent body size and internal structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavidez, P. G.; Durda, D. D.; Enke, B.; Campo Bagatin, A.; Richardson, D. C.; Asphaug, E.; Bottke, W. F.

2018-04-01

In this work we extend the systematic investigation of impact outcomes of 100-km-diameter targets started by Durda et al. (2007) and Benavidez et al. (2012) to targets of D = 400 km using the same range of impact conditions and two internal structures: monolithic and rubble-pile. We performed a new set of simulations in the gravity regime for targets of 400 km in diameter using these same internal structures. This provides a large set of 600 simulations performed in a systematic way that permits a thorough analysis of the impact outcomes and evaluation of the main features of the size frequency distribution due mostly to self-gravity. In addition, we use the impact outcomes to attempt to constrain the impact conditions of the asteroid belt where known asteroid families with a large expected parent body were formed. We have found fairly good matches for the Eunomia and Hygiea families. In addition, we identified a potential acceptable match to the Vesta family from a monolithic parent body of 468 km. The impact conditions of the best matches suggest that these families were formed in a dynamically excited belt. The results also suggest that the parent body of the Eunomia family could be a monolithic body of 382 km diameter, while the one for Hygiea could have a rubble-pile internal structure of 416 km diameter.

A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, K.; Levermann, A.; Elliott, J.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Döll, P.; Falloon, P.; Fekete, B.; Folberth, C.; Friend, A. D.; Gellhorn, C.; Gosling, S. N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Lomas, M.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Neumann, K.; Oki, T.; Pavlick, R.; Ruane, A. C.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Stacke, T.; Stehfest, E.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Warszawski, L.; Schewe, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schellnhuber, H. J.

2015-07-01

Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.

The Impact of Utilizing a Flexible Work Schedule on the Perceived Career Advancement Potential of Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogier, Sara A.; Padgett, Margaret Y.

2004-01-01

This study examined whether a woman working a flexible schedule would be perceived as having less career advancement potential than a woman on a regular schedule. Participants reviewed a packet of materials simulating the personnel file of a female employee in an accounting firm who was seeking promotion from manager to senior manager. Results…

Impact of detector simulation in particle physics collider experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elvira, V. Daniel

Through the last three decades, precise simulation of the interactions of particles with matter and modeling of detector geometries has proven to be of critical importance to the success of the international high-energy physics experimental programs. For example, the detailed detector modeling and accurate physics of the Geant4-based simulation software of the CMS and ATLAS particle physics experiments at the European Center of Nuclear Research (CERN) Large Hadron Collider (LHC) was a determinant factor for these collaborations to deliver physics results of outstanding quality faster than any hadron collider experiment ever before. This review article highlights the impact of detectormore » simulation on particle physics collider experiments. It presents numerous examples of the use of simulation, from detector design and optimization, through software and computing development and testing, to cases where the use of simulation samples made a difference in the accuracy of the physics results and publication turnaround, from data-taking to submission. It also presents the economic impact and cost of simulation in the CMS experiment. Future experiments will collect orders of magnitude more data, taxing heavily the performance of simulation and reconstruction software for increasingly complex detectors. Consequently, it becomes urgent to find solutions to speed up simulation software in order to cope with the increased demand in a time of flat budgets. The study ends with a short discussion on the potential solutions that are being explored, by leveraging core count growth in multicore machines, using new generation coprocessors, and re-engineering of HEP code for concurrency and parallel computing.« less

Impact of detector simulation in particle physics collider experiments

DOE PAGES

Elvira, V. Daniel

2017-06-01

Through the last three decades, precise simulation of the interactions of particles with matter and modeling of detector geometries has proven to be of critical importance to the success of the international high-energy physics experimental programs. For example, the detailed detector modeling and accurate physics of the Geant4-based simulation software of the CMS and ATLAS particle physics experiments at the European Center of Nuclear Research (CERN) Large Hadron Collider (LHC) was a determinant factor for these collaborations to deliver physics results of outstanding quality faster than any hadron collider experiment ever before. This review article highlights the impact of detectormore » simulation on particle physics collider experiments. It presents numerous examples of the use of simulation, from detector design and optimization, through software and computing development and testing, to cases where the use of simulation samples made a difference in the accuracy of the physics results and publication turnaround, from data-taking to submission. It also presents the economic impact and cost of simulation in the CMS experiment. Future experiments will collect orders of magnitude more data, taxing heavily the performance of simulation and reconstruction software for increasingly complex detectors. Consequently, it becomes urgent to find solutions to speed up simulation software in order to cope with the increased demand in a time of flat budgets. The study ends with a short discussion on the potential solutions that are being explored, by leveraging core count growth in multicore machines, using new generation coprocessors, and re-engineering of HEP code for concurrency and parallel computing.« less

Impact of detector simulation in particle physics collider experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniel Elvira, V.

2017-06-01

Through the last three decades, accurate simulation of the interactions of particles with matter and modeling of detector geometries has proven to be of critical importance to the success of the international high-energy physics (HEP) experimental programs. For example, the detailed detector modeling and accurate physics of the Geant4-based simulation software of the CMS and ATLAS particle physics experiments at the European Center of Nuclear Research (CERN) Large Hadron Collider (LHC) was a determinant factor for these collaborations to deliver physics results of outstanding quality faster than any hadron collider experiment ever before. This review article highlights the impact of detector simulation on particle physics collider experiments. It presents numerous examples of the use of simulation, from detector design and optimization, through software and computing development and testing, to cases where the use of simulation samples made a difference in the precision of the physics results and publication turnaround, from data-taking to submission. It also presents estimates of the cost and economic impact of simulation in the CMS experiment. Future experiments will collect orders of magnitude more data with increasingly complex detectors, taxing heavily the performance of simulation and reconstruction software. Consequently, exploring solutions to speed up simulation and reconstruction software to satisfy the growing demand of computing resources in a time of flat budgets is a matter that deserves immediate attention. The article ends with a short discussion on the potential solutions that are being considered, based on leveraging core count growth in multicore machines, using new generation coprocessors, and re-engineering HEP code for concurrency and parallel computing.

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.;

Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

2016-12-01

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify `method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Space station impact experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, P.; Ahrens, T.; Alexander, W. M.; Cintala, M.; Gault, D.; Greeley, R.; Hawke, B. R.; Housen, K.; Schmidt, R.

1986-01-01

Four processes serve to illustrate potential areas of study and their implications for general problems in planetary science. First, accretional processes reflect the success of collisional aggregation over collisional destruction during the early history of the solar system. Second, both catastrophic and less severe effects of impacts on planetary bodies survivng from the time of the early solar system may be expressed by asteroid/planetary spin rates, spin orientations, asteroid size distributions, and perhaps the origin of the Moon. Third, the surfaces of planetary bodies directly record the effects of impacts in the form of craters; these records have wide-ranging implications. Fourth, regoliths evolution of asteroidal surfaces is a consequence of cumulative impacts, but the absence of a significant gravity term may profoundly affect the retention of shocked fractions and agglutinate build-up, thereby biasing the correct interpretations of spectral reflectance data. An impact facility on the Space Station would provide the controlled conditions necessary to explore such processes either through direct simulation of conditions or indirect simulation of certain parameters.

The NASA Ames Hypervelocity Free Flight Aerodynamic Facility: Experimental Simulation of the Atmospheric Break-Up of Meteors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilder, M. C.; Bogdanoff, D. W.

2015-01-01

The Hypervelocity Free Flight Aerodynamic Facility at NASA Ames Research Center provides a potential platform for the experimental simulation of meteor breakup at conditions that closely match full-scale entry condition for select parameters. The poster describes the entry environment simulation capabilities of the Hypervelocity Free Flight Aerodynamic Facility (HFFAF) at NASA Ames Research Center and provides example images of the fragmentation of a hypersonic projectile for which break-up was initiated by mechanical forces (impact with a thin polymer diaphragm).

Electronic simulation of the supported liquid membrane in electromembrane extraction systems: Improvement of the extraction by precise periodical reversing of the field polarity.

PubMed

Moazami, Hamid Reza; Nojavan, Saeed; Zahedi, Pegah; Davarani, Saied Saeed Hosseiny

2014-09-02

In order to understand the limitations of electromebrane extraction procedure better, a simple equivalent circuit has been proposed for a supported liquid membrane consisting of a resistor and a low leakage capacitor in series. To verify the equivalent circuit, it was subjected to a simulated periodical polarity changing potential and the resulting time variation of the current was compared with that of a real electromembrane extraction system. The results showed a good agreement between the simulated current patterns and those of the real ones. In order to investigate the impact of various limiting factors, the corresponding values of the equivalent circuit were estimated for a real electromembrane extraction system and were attributed to the physical parameters of the extraction system. A dual charge transfer mechanism was proposed for electromembrane extraction by combining general migration equation and fundamental aspects derived from the simulation. Dual mechanism comprises a current dependent contribution of analyte in total current and could support the possibility of an improvement in performance of an electromembrane extraction by application of an asymmetric polarity changing potential. The optimization of frequency and duty cycle of the asymmetric polarity exchanging potential resulted in a higher recovery (2.17 times greater) in comparison with the conventional electromebrane extraction. The simulation also provided more quantitative approaches toward the investigation of the mechanism of extraction and contribution of different limiting factors in electromembrane extraction. Results showed that the buildup of the double layer is the main limiting factor and the Joule heating has lesser impact on the performance of an electromebrane extraction system. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study).

PubMed

Waterlander, Wilma E; Blakely, Tony; Nghiem, Nhung; Cleghorn, Christine L; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Wilson, Nick; Jiang, Yannan; Swinburn, Boyd; Jacobi, Liana; Michie, Jo; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona

2016-07-19

There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price) to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM) study aims to: I) derive accurate and precise food PE values; II) quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III) model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts) are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods) to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential health and disease impacts of various food pricing policy options. Findings will inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616000122459 (registered 3 February 2016).

Examining System-Wide Impacts of Solar PV Control Systems with a Power Hardware-in-the-Loop Platform

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Tess L.; Fuller, Jason C.; Schneider, Kevin P.

2014-06-08

High penetration levels of distributed solar PV power generation can lead to adverse power quality impacts, such as excessive voltage rise, voltage flicker, and reactive power values that result in unacceptable voltage levels. Advanced inverter control schemes have been developed that have the potential to mitigate many power quality concerns. However, local closed-loop control may lead to unintended behavior in deployed systems as complex interactions can occur between numerous operating devices. To enable the study of the performance of advanced control schemes in a detailed distribution system environment, a test platform has been developed that integrates Power Hardware-in-the-Loop (PHIL) withmore » concurrent time-series electric distribution system simulation. In the test platform, GridLAB-D, a distribution system simulation tool, runs a detailed simulation of a distribution feeder in real-time mode at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and supplies power system parameters at a point of common coupling. At the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), a hardware inverter interacts with grid and PV simulators emulating an operational distribution system. Power output from the inverters is measured and sent to PNNL to update the real-time distribution system simulation. The platform is described and initial test cases are presented. The platform is used to study the system-wide impacts and the interactions of inverter control modes—constant power factor and active Volt/VAr control—when integrated into a simulated IEEE 8500-node test feeder. We demonstrate that this platform is well-suited to the study of advanced inverter controls and their impacts on the power quality of a distribution feeder. Additionally, results are used to validate GridLAB-D simulations of advanced inverter controls.« less

Climate change impacts on the temperature and magnitude of groundwater discharge from shallow, unconfined aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kurylyk, Barret L.; MacQuarrie, Kerry T.B; Voss, Clifford I.

2014-01-01

Cold groundwater discharge to streams and rivers can provide critical thermal refuge for threatened salmonids and other aquatic species during warm summer periods. Climate change may influence groundwater temperature and flow rates, which may in turn impact riverine ecosystems. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the timing, magnitude, and temperature of groundwater discharge from small, unconfined aquifers that undergo seasonal freezing and thawing. Seven downscaled climate scenarios for 2046–2065 were utilized to drive surficial water and energy balance models (HELP3 and ForHyM2) to obtain future projections for daily ground surface temperature and groundwater recharge. These future surface conditions were then applied as boundary conditions to drive subsurface simulations of variably saturated groundwater flow and energy transport. The subsurface simulations were performed with the U.S. Geological Survey finite element model SUTRA that was recently modified to include the dynamic freeze-thaw process. The SUTRA simulations indicate a potential rise in the magnitude (up to 34%) and temperature (up to 3.6°C) of groundwater discharge to the adjacent river during the summer months due to projected increases in air temperature and precipitation. The thermal response of groundwater to climate change is shown to be strongly dependent on the aquifer dimensions. Thus, the simulations demonstrate that the thermal sensitivity of aquifers and baseflow-dominated streams to decadal climate change may be more complex than previously thought. Furthermore, the results indicate that the probability of exceeding critical temperature thresholds within groundwater-sourced thermal refugia may significantly increase under the most extreme climate scenarios.

Metabolic flexibility of mitochondrial respiratory chain disorders predicted by computer modelling.

PubMed

Zieliński, Łukasz P; Smith, Anthony C; Smith, Alexander G; Robinson, Alan J

2016-11-01

Mitochondrial respiratory chain dysfunction causes a variety of life-threatening diseases affecting about 1 in 4300 adults. These diseases are genetically heterogeneous, but have the same outcome; reduced activity of mitochondrial respiratory chain complexes causing decreased ATP production and potentially toxic accumulation of metabolites. Severity and tissue specificity of these effects varies between patients by unknown mechanisms and treatment options are limited. So far most research has focused on the complexes themselves, and the impact on overall cellular metabolism is largely unclear. To illustrate how computer modelling can be used to better understand the potential impact of these disorders and inspire new research directions and treatments, we simulated them using a computer model of human cardiomyocyte mitochondrial metabolism containing over 300 characterised reactions and transport steps with experimental parameters taken from the literature. Overall, simulations were consistent with patient symptoms, supporting their biological and medical significance. These simulations predicted: complex I deficiencies could be compensated using multiple pathways; complex II deficiencies had less metabolic flexibility due to impacting both the TCA cycle and the respiratory chain; and complex III and IV deficiencies caused greatest decreases in ATP production with metabolic consequences that parallel hypoxia. Our study demonstrates how results from computer models can be compared to a clinical phenotype and used as a tool for hypothesis generation for subsequent experimental testing. These simulations can enhance understanding of dysfunctional mitochondrial metabolism and suggest new avenues for research into treatment of mitochondrial disease and other areas of mitochondrial dysfunction. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential safety benefits of intelligent cruise control systems.

PubMed

Chira-Chavala, T; Yoo, S M

1994-04-01

Potential safety impact of a hypothetical intelligent cruise control system (ICCS) is evaluated in terms of changes in traffic accidents and some traffic operation characteristics affecting safety. The analysis of changes in traffic accidents is accomplished by in-depth examinations of police accident reports for four major counties in California. The evaluation of changes in traffic operation characteristics affecting safety is accomplished by vehicle simulation. The accident analysis reveals that the use of the hypothetical ICCS could potentially reduce traffic accidents by up to 7.5%. Preliminary vehicle simulation results based on a 10-vehicle convoy indicate that the use of the hypothetical ICCS could reduce frequencies of hard acceleration and deceleration, enhance speed harmonization among vehicles, and reduce incidence of "less-safe" headway.

Changing cluster composition in cluster randomised controlled trials: design and analysis considerations

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background There are many methodological challenges in the conduct and analysis of cluster randomised controlled trials, but one that has received little attention is that of post-randomisation changes to cluster composition. To illustrate this, we focus on the issue of cluster merging, considering the impact on the design, analysis and interpretation of trial outcomes. Methods We explored the effects of merging clusters on study power using standard methods of power calculation. We assessed the potential impacts on study findings of both homogeneous cluster merges (involving clusters randomised to the same arm of a trial) and heterogeneous merges (involving clusters randomised to different arms of a trial) by simulation. To determine the impact on bias and precision of treatment effect estimates, we applied standard methods of analysis to different populations under analysis. Results Cluster merging produced a systematic reduction in study power. This effect depended on the number of merges and was most pronounced when variability in cluster size was at its greatest. Simulations demonstrate that the impact on analysis was minimal when cluster merges were homogeneous, with impact on study power being balanced by a change in observed intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC). We found a decrease in study power when cluster merges were heterogeneous, and the estimate of treatment effect was attenuated. Conclusions Examples of cluster merges found in previously published reports of cluster randomised trials were typically homogeneous rather than heterogeneous. Simulations demonstrated that trial findings in such cases would be unbiased. However, simulations also showed that any heterogeneous cluster merges would introduce bias that would be hard to quantify, as well as having negative impacts on the precision of estimates obtained. Further methodological development is warranted to better determine how to analyse such trials appropriately. Interim recommendations include avoidance of cluster merges where possible, discontinuation of clusters following heterogeneous merges, allowance for potential loss of clusters and additional variability in cluster size in the original sample size calculation, and use of appropriate ICC estimates that reflect cluster size. PMID:24884591

Potential effects of climate change on ground water in Lansing, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Croley, T.E.; Luukkonen, C.L.

2003-01-01

Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri-County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.

Capsule physics comparison of National Ignition Facility implosion designs using plastic, high density carbon, and beryllium ablators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, D. S.; Kritcher, A. L.; Yi, S. A.; Zylstra, A. B.; Haan, S. W.; Weber, C. R.

2018-03-01

Indirect drive implosion experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) [E. I. Moses et al., Phys. Plasmas 16, 041006 (2009)] have now tested three different ablator materials: glow discharge polymer plastic, high density carbon, and beryllium. How do these different ablators compare in current and proposed implosion experiments on NIF? What are the relative advantages and disadvantages of each? This paper compares these different ablator options in capsule-only simulations of current NIF experiments and potential future designs. The simulations compare the impact of the capsule fill tube, support tent, and interface surface roughness for each case, as well as all perturbations in combination. According to the simulations, each ablator is impacted by the various perturbation sources differently, and each material poses unique challenges in the pursuit of ignition on NIF.

Analysis of energy flow during playground surface impacts.

PubMed

Davidson, Peter L; Wilson, Suzanne J; Chalmers, David J; Wilson, Barry D; Eager, David; McIntosh, Andrew S

2013-10-01

The amount of energy dissipated away from or returned to a child falling onto a surface will influence fracture risk but is not considered in current standards for playground impact-attenuating surfaces. A two-mass rheological computer simulation was used to model energy flow within the wrist and surface during hand impact with playground surfaces, and the potential of this approach to provide insights into such impacts and predict injury risk examined. Acceleration data collected on-site from typical playground surfaces and previously obtained data from children performing an exercise involving freefalling with a fully extended arm provided input. The model identified differences in energy flow properties between playground surfaces and two potentially harmful surface characteristics: more energy was absorbed by (work done on) the wrist during both impact and rebound on rubber surfaces than on bark, and rubber surfaces started to rebound (return energy to the wrist) while the upper limb was still moving downward. Energy flow analysis thus provides information on playground surface characteristics and the impact process, and has the potential to identify fracture risks, inform the development of safer impact-attenuating surfaces, and contribute to development of new energy-based arm fracture injury criteria and tests for use in conjunction with current methods.

Adaptation to Sea Level Rise: A Multidisciplinary Analysis for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scussolini, Paolo; Tran, Thi Van Thu; Koks, Elco; Diaz-Loaiza, Andres; Ho, Phi Long; Lasage, Ralph

2017-12-01

One of the most critical impacts of sea level rise is that flooding suffered by ever larger settlements in tropical deltas will increase. Here we look at Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and quantify the threats that coastal floods pose to safety and to the economy. For this, we produce flood maps through hydrodynamic modeling and, by combining these with data sets of exposure and vulnerability, we estimate two indicators of risk: the damage to assets and the number of potential casualties. We simulate current and future (2050 and 2100) flood risk using IPCC scenarios of sea level rise and socioeconomic change. We find that annual damage may grow by more than 1 order of magnitude, and potential casualties may grow 5-20-fold until the end of the century, in the absence of adaptation. Impacts depend strongly on the climate and socioeconomic scenarios considered. Next, we simulate the implementation of adaptation measures and calculate their effectiveness in reducing impacts. We find that a ring dike would protect the inner city but increase risk in more rural districts, whereas elevating areas at risk and dryproofing buildings will reduce impacts to the city as a whole. Most measures perform well from an economic standpoint. Combinations of measures seem to be the optimal solution and may address potential equity conflicts. Based on our results, we design possible adaptation pathways for Ho Chi Minh City for the coming decades; these can inform policy-making and strategic thinking.

Impacts of social indicators on assessing the recovery potential of impaired watersheds.

PubMed

Sinshaw, Tadesse A; Surbeck, Cristiane Q

2018-05-09

An analysis was carried out to understand how watersheds' potential for restoration was impacted by social indicators. This study employed the USEPA Recovery Potential Screening tool, a decision support system, to compare 51 watersheds in the state of Mississippi, USA, using ecological, stressor, and social indices, and the recovery potential integrated (RPI) index. An in-depth analysis was performed on four watersheds in the Delta region of Mississippi (Lake Washington, Harris Bayou, Steele Bayou, and Coldwater River), each impaired by sediments and nutrients. Sixteen social indicators were categorized into three subcategories: Socio-Economic, Organizational, and Informational. Watersheds with lower social indices had lower RPI scores. In the particular watersheds studied, the Socio-Economic subcategory was observed to be the most impactful to the overall recovery potential when compared to the other two social subcategories. As a sensitivity analysis, a "what if" simulation was performed to explore alternatives to upgrade a watershed's social index and, consequently, the relative recovery potential of the watershed to a target level. This analysis is useful for understanding how particular social indicators of a community impact the relative potential for recovering a watershed, beyond just the ecological and stressor conditions. It also sheds light on assessing which social indicators can be improved. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies.

PubMed

Mathison, Camilla; Wiltshire, Andrew; Dimri, A P; Falloon, Pete; Jacob, Daniela; Kumar, Pankaj; Moors, Eddy; Ridley, Jeff; Siderius, Christian; Stoffel, Markus; Yasunari, T

2013-12-01

Adaptation is increasingly important for regions around the world where large changes in climate could have an impact on populations and industry. The Brahmaputra-Ganges catchments have a large population, a main industry of agriculture and a growing hydro-power industry, making the region susceptible to changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon, annually the main water source. The HighNoon project has completed four regional climate model simulations for India and the Himalaya at high resolution (25km) from 1960 to 2100 to provide an ensemble of simulations for the region. In this paper we have assessed the ensemble for these catchments, comparing the simulations with observations, to give credence that the simulations provide a realistic representation of atmospheric processes and therefore future climate. We have illustrated how these simulations could be used to provide information on potential future climate impacts and therefore aid decision-making using climatology and threshold analysis. The ensemble analysis shows an increase in temperature between the baseline (1970-2000) and the 2050s (2040-2070) of between 2 and 4°C and an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures above 28°C and 35°C. There is less certainty for precipitation and runoff which show considerable variability, even in this relatively small ensemble, spanning zero. The HighNoon ensemble is the most complete data for the region providing useful information on a wide range of variables for the regional climate of the Brahmaputra-Ganges region, however there are processes not yet included in the models that could have an impact on the simulations of future climate. We have discussed these processes and show that the range from the HighNoon ensemble is similar in magnitude to potential changes in projections where these processes are included. Therefore strategies for adaptation must be robust and flexible allowing for advances in the science and natural environmental changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A workshop model simulating fate and effect of drilling muds and cuttings on benthic communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Auble, Gregor T.; Andrews, Austin K.; Hamilton, David B.; Roelle, James E.; Shoemaker, Thomas G.

1984-01-01

Oil and gas exploration and production at marine sites has generated concern over potential environmental impacts resulting from the discharge of spent drilling muds and cuttings. This concern has led to a broad array of publicly and privately sponsored research. This report described a cooperative modeling effort designed to focus information resulting from this research through construction of explicit equations that simulate the potential impacts of discharge drilling fluids (muds) and cuttings on marine communities. The model is the result of collaboration among more than 30 scientists. The principal cooperating organizations were the E.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Minerals Management Service, the Offshore Operators Committee, and the Alaska Oil and Gas Association. The overall simulation model can be conceptualized as three connected submodels: Discharge and Plume Fate, Sediment Redistribution, and Benthic Community Effects. On each day of simulation, these submodels are executed in sequence, with flows of information between submodels. The Benthic Community Effects submodel can be further divided into sections that calculate mortality due to burial, mortality due to toxicity, mortality due to resuspension disturbance, and growth of the community. The model represents a series of seven discrete 1-m2 plots at specified distances along a transect in one direction away from a discharge point. It consists of coupled difference equations for which parameter values can easily be set to evaluate different conditions or to examine the sensitivity of output to various assumptions. Sets of parameter values were developed to represent four general cases or scenarios: (1) a shallow (5 m), cold environment with ice cover during a substantial fraction of the year, such as might be encountered in the Beaufort Sea, Alaska; (2) a shallow (20 m), temperate environment, such as might be encountered in the Gulf of Mexico; (3) a deeper (80 m), temperate environment, such as might be encountered in the Gulf of Mexico; and (4) a very deep (1,000 m) environment, such as might be encountered on the Atlantic slope. The focus of the modeling effort was on the connection of a reasonable representation of physical fate to the biological responses of populations, rather than on highly detailed representations of individual processes. For example, the calculations of physical fate are not as detailed as those in the recently published model of Brandsma et al. (1983). The value of the model described herein is in the broad scope of processes that are explicitly represented and linked together. The model cannot be considered to produce reliable predictions of the quantitative impacts of discharged drilling fluids and cuttings on biological populations at a particular site. Limitations of the model in predicting integrated fate and effects can be traced to three general areas: level of refinement of the algorithms used in the model; lack of understanding of the processes determining fate and effects; and parameter and data values. Despite the limitations, several qualitative conclusions concerning both potential impacts and the importance of various remaining data gaps can be drawn from the modeling effort. These include: (1) Simple, unequivocal conclusions about fate and effects across geographical regions and drilling operations are difficult, if not misleading, due to the large amount of variability in characteristics of discharged materials (e.g., oil content and toxicity), discharge conditions (e.g., duration of drilling operations), physical environments (e.g., water depth, current direction, and sediment disturbance regimes), and biological communities (e.g., intrinsic growth rates). Different combinations of these characteristics can result in substantial differences in simulated environmental fate and biological effects. For examples, simulated recovery in some high-energy environments occurs within months after the cessation of discharge operations, even at heavily impacted sites, whereas simulated recover in some low-energy environments takes years at heavily impacted sites. (3) The volume of material discharged and duration of operations in the production drilling operations simulated by the model are sufficient to produce substantial simulated biological impacts at some plots, both in terms of differences from a control plot during the period of discharge operations, and in terms of the recovery period following the perturbations. Evaluation of the significance of potential effects involves the following factors: • Definition of a specific spatial and temporal reference frame (e.g., What is the natural variation? Is 1 year to be considered a "long" or "short" time? Is 50 m to be considered a "large" or "trivial" distance? • Consideration of rare or unique resources and particularly sensitive biotic assemblages. • Consideration of the potential for long term, cumulative effects. Some of these aspects are clearly beyond the scope of this modeling efforts (e.g., the model does not simulate the long term fate of resuspended material). The model does, however, contain an internal "reference frame" by comparison to simulated behavior at a control plot. The model, in general, simulates substantial "natural" variation at the reference or control plots, both over time, due to sediment disturbance events in medium to high energy environments, and over space, due to geographically varying conditions, such as water depth and current regime.

DESIGNING EFFICIENT, ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY CHEMICAL PROCESSES

EPA Science Inventory

A catalytic reforming process has been studied using hierarchical design and simulation calculations. Approximations for the fugitive emissions indicate which streams allow the most value to be lost and which have the highest potential environmental impact. One can use this infor...

DESIGNING EFFICIENT, ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY CHEMICAL PROCESSES

EPA Science Inventory

A catalytic reforming process has been studied using hierarchical design and simulation calculations. Aproximations for the fugitive emissions indicate which streams allow the most value to be lost and which have the highest potential environmental impact. One can use tis inform...

Assessment of future impacts of potential climate change scenarios on aquifer recharge in continental Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Alcalá, Francisco J.

2017-04-01

This research proposes and applies a method to assess potential impacts of future climatic scenarios on aquifer rainfall recharge in wide and varied regions. The continental Spain territory was selected to show the application. The method requires to generate future series of climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) in the system to simulate them within a previously calibrated hydrological model for the historical data. In a previous work, Alcalá and Custodio (2014) used the atmospheric chloride mass balance (CMB) method for the spatial evaluation of average aquifer recharge by rainfall over the whole of continental Spain, by assuming long-term steady conditions of the balance variables. The distributed average CMB variables necessary to calculate recharge were estimated from available variable-length data series of variable quality and spatial coverage. The CMB variables were regionalized by ordinary kriging at the same 4976 nodes of a 10 km x 10 km grid. Two main sources of uncertainty affecting recharge estimates (given by the coefficient of variation, CV), induced by the inherent natural variability of the variables and from mapping were segregated. Based on these stationary results we define a simple empirical rainfall-recharge model. We consider that spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and temperature are the most important climatic feature and variables influencing potential aquifer recharge in natural regime. Changes in these variables can be important in the assessment of future potential impacts of climatic scenarios over spatiotemporal renewable groundwater resource. For instance, if temperature increases, actual evapotranspitration (EA) will increases reducing the available water for others groundwater balance components, including the recharge. For this reason, instead of defining an infiltration rate coefficient that relates precipitation (P) and recharge we propose to define a transformation function that allows estimating the spatial distribution of recharge (both average value and its uncertainty) from the difference in P and EA in each area. A complete analysis of potential short-term (2016-2045) future climate scenarios in continental Spain has been performed by considering different sources of uncertainty. It is based on the historical climatic data for the period 1976-2005 and the climatic models simulations (for the control [1976-2005] and future scenarios [2016-2045]) performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The most pessimistic emission scenario (RCP8.5) has been considered. For the RCP8.5 scenario we have analyzed the time series generated by simulating with 5 Regional Climatic models (CCLM4-8-17, RCA4, HIRHAM5, RACMO22E, and WRF331F) nested to 4 different General Circulation Models (GCMs). Two different conceptual approaches (bias correction and delta change techniques) have been applied to generate potential future climate scenarios from these data. Different ensembles of obtained time series have been proposed to obtain more representative scenarios by considering all the simulations or only those providing better approximations to the historical statistics based on a multicriteria analysis. This was a step to analyze future potential impacts on the aquifer recharge by simulating them within a rainfall-recharge model. This research has been supported by the CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R (MINECO) and the PMAFI/06/14 (UCAM) projects.

Multiobjective optimization of low impact development stormwater controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckart, Kyle; McPhee, Zach; Bolisetti, Tirupati

2018-07-01

Green infrastructure such as Low Impact Development (LID) controls are being employed to manage the urban stormwater and restore the predevelopment hydrological conditions besides improving the stormwater runoff water quality. Since runoff generation and infiltration processes are nonlinear, there is a need for identifying optimal combination of LID controls. A coupled optimization-simulation model was developed by linking the U.S. EPA Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) to the Borg Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm (Borg MOEA). The coupled model is capable of performing multiobjective optimization which uses SWMM simulations as a tool to evaluate potential solutions to the optimization problem. The optimization-simulation tool was used to evaluate low impact development (LID) stormwater controls. A SWMM model was developed, calibrated, and validated for a sewershed in Windsor, Ontario and LID stormwater controls were tested for three different return periods. LID implementation strategies were optimized using the optimization-simulation model for five different implementation scenarios for each of the three storm events with the objectives of minimizing peak flow in the stormsewers, reducing total runoff, and minimizing cost. For the sewershed in Windsor, Ontario, the peak run off and total volume of the runoff were found to reduce by 13% and 29%, respectively.

Potential impact of inorganic nanoparticles on macronutrient digestion: titanium dioxide nanoparticles slightly reduce lipid digestion under simulated gastrointestinal conditions.

PubMed

Li, Qian; Li, Ti; Liu, Chengmei; DeLoid, Glen; Pyrgiotakis, Georgios; Demokritou, Philip; Zhang, Ruojie; Xiao, Hang; McClements, David Julian

Titanium dioxide (TiO 2 ) particles are used in some food products to alter their optical properties, such as whiteness or brightness. These additives typically contain a population of TiO 2 nanoparticles (d < 100 nm), which has led to concern about their potential toxicity. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of TiO 2 particles on the gastrointestinal fate of oil-in-water emulsions using a simulated gastrointestinal tract (GIT) that includes mouth, stomach, and small intestine phases. Theoretical predictions suggested that TiO 2 nanoparticles might inhibit lipid digestion through two physicochemical mechanisms: (i) a fraction of the lipase adsorbs to TiO 2 particle surfaces, thereby reducing the amount available to hydrolyze lipid droplets; (ii) some TiO 2 particles adsorb to the surfaces of lipid droplets, thereby reducing the lipid surface area exposed to lipase. The importance of these mechanisms was tested by passing protein-coated lipid droplets (2%, w/w) through the simulated GIT in the absence and presence of TiO 2 (0.5%, w/w) nanoparticles (18 nm) and fine particles (167 nm). Changes in particle characteristics (size, organization, and charge) and lipid digestion were then measured. Both TiO 2 nanoparticles and fine particles had little impact on the aggregation state and charge of the lipid droplets in the different GIT regions, as well as on the rate and extent of lipid digestion. This suggests that the theoretically predicted impact of particle size on lipid digestion was not seen in practice.

A Framework for the Cross-Sectoral Integration of Multi-Model Impact Projections: Land Use Decisions Under Climate Impacts Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frieler, K.; Elliott, Joshua; Levermann, A.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Doll, P.;

A new method for qualitative simulation of water resources systems: 2. Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antunes, M. P.; Seixas, M. J.; Camara, A. S.; Pinheiro, M.

1987-11-01

SLIN (Simulação Linguistica) is a new method for qualitative dynamic simulation. As was presented previously (Camara et al., this issue), SLIN relies upon a categorical representation of variables which are manipulated by logical rules. Two applications to water resources systems are included to illustrate SLIN's potential usefulness: the environmental impact evaluation of a hydropower plant and the assessment of oil dispersion in the sea after a tanker wreck.

Regional-scale geomechanical impact assessment of underground coal gasification by coupled 3D thermo-mechanical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Christopher; Kempka, Thomas; Kapusta, Krzysztof; Stańczyk, Krzysztof

2016-04-01

Underground coal gasification (UCG) has the potential to increase the world-wide coal reserves by utilization of coal deposits not mineable by conventional methods. The UCG process involves combusting coal in situ to produce a high-calorific synthesis gas, which can be applied for electricity generation or chemical feedstock production. Apart from its high economic potentials, UCG may induce site-specific environmental impacts such as fault reactivation, induced seismicity and ground subsidence, potentially inducing groundwater pollution. Changes overburden hydraulic conductivity resulting from thermo-mechanical effects may introduce migration pathways for UCG contaminants. Due to the financial efforts associated with UCG field trials, numerical modeling has been an important methodology to study coupled processes considering UCG performance. Almost all previous UCG studies applied 1D or 2D models for that purpose, that do not allow to predict the performance of a commercial-scale UCG operation. Considering our previous findings, demonstrating that far-field models can be run at a higher computational efficiency by using temperature-independent thermo-mechanical parameters, representative coupled simulations based on complex 3D regional-scale models were employed in the present study. For that purpose, a coupled thermo-mechanical 3D model has been developed to investigate the environmental impacts of UCG based on a regional-scale of the Polish Wieczorek mine located in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. The model size is 10 km × 10 km × 5 km with ten dipping lithological layers, a double fault and 25 UCG reactors. Six different numerical simulation scenarios were investigated, considering the transpressive stress regime present in that part of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. Our simulation results demonstrate that the minimum distance between the UCG reactors is about the six-fold of the coal seam thickness to avoid hydraulic communication between the single UCG reactors. Fault reactivation resulting from fault shear and normal displacements is discussed under consideration of potentially induced seismicity. Here, the coupled simulation results indicate that seismic hazard during UCG operation remains negligible with a seismic moment magnitude of MW < 3.

Potential climatic impacts and reliability of very large-scale wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Prinn, R. G.

2010-02-01

Meeting future world energy needs while addressing climate change requires large-scale deployment of low or zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission technologies such as wind energy. The widespread availability of wind power has fueled substantial interest in this renewable energy source as one of the needed technologies. For very large-scale utilization of this resource, there are however potential environmental impacts, and also problems arising from its inherent intermittency, in addition to the present need to lower unit costs. To explore some of these issues, we use a three-dimensional climate model to simulate the potential climate effects associated with installation of wind-powered generators over vast areas of land or coastal ocean. Using wind turbines to meet 10% or more of global energy demand in 2100, could cause surface warming exceeding 1 °C over land installations. In contrast, surface cooling exceeding 1 °C is computed over ocean installations, but the validity of simulating the impacts of wind turbines by simply increasing the ocean surface drag needs further study. Significant warming or cooling remote from both the land and ocean installations, and alterations of the global distributions of rainfall and clouds also occur. These results are influenced by the competing effects of increases in roughness and decreases in wind speed on near-surface turbulent heat fluxes, the differing nature of land and ocean surface friction, and the dimensions of the installations parallel and perpendicular to the prevailing winds. These results are also dependent on the accuracy of the model used, and the realism of the methods applied to simulate wind turbines. Additional theory and new field observations will be required for their ultimate validation. Intermittency of wind power on daily, monthly and longer time scales as computed in these simulations and inferred from meteorological observations, poses a demand for one or more options to ensure reliability, including backup generation capacity, very long distance power transmission lines, and onsite energy storage, each with specific economic and/or technological challenges.

Potential climatic impacts and reliability of very large-scale wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Prinn, R. G.

2009-09-01

Meeting future world energy needs while addressing climate change requires large-scale deployment of low or zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission technologies such as wind energy. The widespread availability of wind power has fueled legitimate interest in this renewable energy source as one of the needed technologies. For very large-scale utilization of this resource, there are however potential environmental impacts, and also problems arising from its inherent intermittency, in addition to the present need to lower unit costs. To explore some of these issues, we use a three-dimensional climate model to simulate the potential climate effects associated with installation of wind-powered generators over vast areas of land or coastal ocean. Using wind turbines to meet 10% or more of global energy demand in 2100, could cause surface warming exceeding 1°C over land installations. In contrast, surface cooling exceeding 1°C is computed over ocean installations, but the validity of simulating the impacts of wind turbines by simply increasing the ocean surface drag needs further study. Significant warming or cooling remote from both the land and ocean installations, and alterations of the global distributions of rainfall and clouds also occur. These results are influenced by the competing effects of increases in roughness and decreases in wind speed on near-surface turbulent heat fluxes, the differing nature of land and ocean surface friction, and the dimensions of the installations parallel and perpendicular to the prevailing winds. These results are also dependent on the accuracy of the model used, and the realism of the methods applied to simulate wind turbines. Additional theory and new field observations will be required for their ultimate validation. Intermittency of wind power on daily, monthly and longer time scales as computed in these simulations and inferred from meteorological observations, poses a demand for one or more options to ensure reliability, including backup generation capacity, very long distance power transmission lines, and onsite energy storage, each with specific economic and/or technological challenges.

Release of Hexavalent Chromium by Ash and Soils in Wildfire-Impacted Areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolf, Ruth E.; Morman, Suzette A.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Hageman, Philip L.; Adams, Monique

2008-01-01

The highly oxidizing environment of a wildfire has the potential to convert any chromium present in the soil or in residential or industrial debris to its more toxic form, hexavalent chromium, a known carcinogen. In addition, the highly basic conditions resulting from the combustion of wood and wood products could result in the stabilization of any aqueous hexavalent chromium formed. Samples were collected from the October 2007 wildfires in Southern California and subjected to an array of test procedures to evaluate the potential effects of fire-impacted soils and ashes on human and environmental health. Soil and ash samples were leached using de-ionized water to simulate conditions resulting from rainfall on fire-impacted areas. The resulting leachates were of high pH (10-13) and many, particularly those of ash from burned residential areas, contained elevated total chromium as much as 33 micrograms per liter. Samples were also leached using a near-neutral pH simulated lung fluid to model potential chemical interactions of inhaled particles with fluids lining the respiratory tract. High Performance Liquid Chromatography coupled to Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry was used to separate and detect individual species (for example, Cr+3, Cr+6, As+3, As+5, Se+4, and Se+6). These procedures were used to determine the form of the chromium present in the de-ionized water and simulated lung fluid leachates. The results show that in the de-ionized water leachate, all of the chromium present is in the form of Cr+6, and the resulting high pH tends to stabilize Cr+6 from reduction to Cr+3. Analysis of the simulated lung fluid leachates indicates that the predominant form of chromium present in the near-neutral pH of lung fluid would be Cr+6, which is of concern due to the high possibility of inhalation of the small ash and soil particulates, particularly by fire or restoration crews.

Start-to-end simulation of single-particle imaging using ultra-short pulses at the European X-ray Free-Electron Laser

DOE PAGES

Fortmann-Grote, Carsten; Buzmakov, Alexey; Jurek, Zoltan; ...

2017-09-01

Single-particle imaging with X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) has the potential to provide structural information at atomic resolution for non-crystalline biomolecules. This potential exists because ultra-short intense pulses can produce interpretable diffraction data notwithstanding radiation damage. This paper explores the impact of pulse duration on the interpretability of diffraction data using comprehensive and realistic simulations of an imaging experiment at the European X-ray Free-Electron Laser. In conclusion, it is found that the optimal pulse duration for molecules with a few thousand atoms at 5 keV lies between 3 and 9 fs.

Start-to-end simulation of single-particle imaging using ultra-short pulses at the European X-ray Free-Electron Laser

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fortmann-Grote, Carsten; Buzmakov, Alexey; Jurek, Zoltan

Single-particle imaging with X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) has the potential to provide structural information at atomic resolution for non-crystalline biomolecules. This potential exists because ultra-short intense pulses can produce interpretable diffraction data notwithstanding radiation damage. This paper explores the impact of pulse duration on the interpretability of diffraction data using comprehensive and realistic simulations of an imaging experiment at the European X-ray Free-Electron Laser. In conclusion, it is found that the optimal pulse duration for molecules with a few thousand atoms at 5 keV lies between 3 and 9 fs.

Numerical analysis of projectile impact in woven texile structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roylance, D.

1977-01-01

Computer codes were developed for simulating the dynamic fracture and viscoelastic constitutive response due to stress wave interaction and reflections caused by ballistic impact on woven textiles. The method, which was developed for use in the design and analysis of protection devices for personnel armor, has potential for use in studies of rotor blade burst containment at high velocity. Alterations in coding required for burst containment problems are discussed.

Measuring the impact of a 'point of view' disability simulation on nursing students' empathy using the Comprehensive State Empathy Scale.

PubMed

Levett-Jones, Tracy; Lapkin, Samuel; Govind, Natalie; Pich, Jacqueline; Hoffman, Kerry; Jeong, Sarah Yeun-Sim; Norton, Carol Anne; Noble, Danielle; Maclellan, Lorna; Robinson-Reilly, Melissa; Everson, Naleya

2017-12-01

Although empathy is an integral component of professional practice and person-centred care, a body of research has identified that vulnerable patients groups frequently experience healthcare that is less than optimal and often lacking in empathy. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of an immersive point-of-view simulation on nursing students' empathy towards people with an Acquired Brain Injury. A convenience sample of 390 nursing students from a cohort of 488 participated in the study, giving a response rate of 80%. Students undertook the simulation in pairs and were randomly allocated to the role of either a person with Acquired Brain Injury or a rehabilitation nurse. The simulated 'patients' wore a hemiparesis suit that replicated the experience of dysphasia, hemianopia and hemiparesis. Characteristics of the sample were summarised using descriptive statistics. A two-group pre-test post-test design was used to investigate the impact of the simulation using the Comprehensive State Empathy Scale. t-Tests were performed to analyse changes in empathy pre post and between simulated 'patients' and 'rehabilitation nurses'. On average, participants reported significantly higher mean empathy scores post simulation (3.75, SD=0.66) compared to pre simulation (3.38 SD=0.61); t (398)=10.33, p<0.001. However, this increase was higher for participants who assumed the role of a 'rehabilitation nurse' (mean=3.86, SD=0.62) than for those who took on the 'patient' role (mean=3.64, SD=0.68), p<0.001. The results from this study attest to the potential of point-of-view simulations to positively impact nursing students' empathy towards people with a disability. Research with other vulnerable patient groups, student cohorts and in other contexts would be beneficial in taking this work forward. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ShinyGPAS: interactive genomic prediction accuracy simulator based on deterministic formulas.

PubMed

Morota, Gota

2017-12-20

Deterministic formulas for the accuracy of genomic predictions highlight the relationships among prediction accuracy and potential factors influencing prediction accuracy prior to performing computationally intensive cross-validation. Visualizing such deterministic formulas in an interactive manner may lead to a better understanding of how genetic factors control prediction accuracy. The software to simulate deterministic formulas for genomic prediction accuracy was implemented in R and encapsulated as a web-based Shiny application. Shiny genomic prediction accuracy simulator (ShinyGPAS) simulates various deterministic formulas and delivers dynamic scatter plots of prediction accuracy versus genetic factors impacting prediction accuracy, while requiring only mouse navigation in a web browser. ShinyGPAS is available at: https://chikudaisei.shinyapps.io/shinygpas/ . ShinyGPAS is a shiny-based interactive genomic prediction accuracy simulator using deterministic formulas. It can be used for interactively exploring potential factors that influence prediction accuracy in genome-enabled prediction, simulating achievable prediction accuracy prior to genotyping individuals, or supporting in-class teaching. ShinyGPAS is open source software and it is hosted online as a freely available web-based resource with an intuitive graphical user interface.

Weather-Driven Variation in Dengue Activity in Australia Examined Using a Process-Based Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Bannister-Tyrrell, Melanie; Williams, Craig; Ritchie, Scott A.; Rau, Gina; Lindesay, Janette; Mercer, Geoff; Harley, David

2013-01-01

The impact of weather variation on dengue transmission in Cairns, Australia, was determined by applying a process-based dengue simulation model (DENSiM) that incorporated local meteorologic, entomologic, and demographic data. Analysis showed that inter-annual weather variation is one of the significant determinants of dengue outbreak receptivity. Cross-correlation analyses showed that DENSiM simulated epidemics of similar relative magnitude and timing to those historically recorded in reported dengue cases in Cairns during 1991–2009, (r = 0.372, P < 0.01). The DENSiM model can now be used to study the potential impacts of future climate change on dengue transmission. Understanding the impact of climate variation on the geographic range, seasonality, and magnitude of dengue transmission will enhance development of adaptation strategies to minimize future disease burden in Australia. PMID:23166197

Analysis of near-surface relative humidity in a wind turbine array boundary layer using an instrumented unmanned aerial system and large-eddy simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adkins, Kevin; Elfajri, Oumnia; Sescu, Adrian

2016-11-01

Simulation and modeling have shown that wind farms have an impact on the near-surface atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) as turbulent wakes generated by the turbines enhance vertical mixing. These changes alter downstream atmospheric properties. With a large portion of wind farms hosted within an agricultural context, changes to the environment can potentially have secondary impacts such as to the productivity of crops. With the exception of a few observational data sets that focus on the impact to near-surface temperature, little to no observational evidence exists. These few studies also lack high spatial resolution due to their use of a limited number of meteorological towers or remote sensing techniques. This study utilizes an instrumented small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) to gather in-situ field measurements from two Midwest wind farms, focusing on the impact that large utility-scale wind turbines have on relative humidity. Results are also compared to numerical experiments conducted using large eddy simulation (LES). Wind turbines are found to differentially alter the relative humidity in the downstream, spanwise and vertical directions under a variety of atmospheric stability conditions.

Consequence and Resilience Modeling for Chemical Supply Chains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stamber, Kevin L.; Vugrin, Eric D.; Ehlen, Mark A.; Sun, Amy C.; Warren, Drake E.; Welk, Margaret E.

2011-01-01

The U.S. chemical sector produces more than 70,000 chemicals that are essential material inputs to critical infrastructure systems, such as the energy, public health, and food and agriculture sectors. Disruptions to the chemical sector can potentially cascade to other dependent sectors, resulting in serious national consequences. To address this concern, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) tasked Sandia National Laboratories to develop a predictive consequence modeling and simulation capability for global chemical supply chains. This paper describes that capability , which includes a dynamic supply chain simulation platform called N_ABLE(tm). The paper also presents results from a case study that simulates the consequences of a Gulf Coast hurricane on selected segments of the U.S. chemical sector. The case study identified consequences that include impacted chemical facilities, cascading impacts to other parts of the chemical sector. and estimates of the lengths of chemical shortages and recovery . Overall. these simulation results can DHS prepare for and respond to actual disruptions.

Multimodel Uncertainty Changes in Simulated River Flows Induced by Human Impact Parameterizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong; Cui, Huijuan; Mu, Mengfei; Gerten Dieter; Gosling, Simon; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-01-01

Human impacts increasingly affect the global hydrological cycle and indeed dominate hydrological changes in some regions. Hydrologists have sought to identify the human-impact-induced hydrological variations via parameterizing anthropogenic water uses in global hydrological models (GHMs). The consequently increased model complexity is likely to introduce additional uncertainty among GHMs. Here, using four GHMs, between-model uncertainties are quantified in terms of the ratio of signal to noise (SNR) for average river flow during 1971-2000 simulated in two experiments, with representation of human impacts (VARSOC) and without (NOSOC). It is the first quantitative investigation of between-model uncertainty resulted from the inclusion of human impact parameterizations. Results show that the between-model uncertainties in terms of SNRs in the VARSOC annual flow are larger (about 2 for global and varied magnitude for different basins) than those in the NOSOC, which are particularly significant in most areas of Asia and northern areas to the Mediterranean Sea. The SNR differences are mostly negative (-20 to 5, indicating higher uncertainty) for basin-averaged annual flow. The VARSOC high flow shows slightly lower uncertainties than NOSOC simulations, with SNR differences mostly ranging from -20 to 20. The uncertainty differences between the two experiments are significantly related to the fraction of irrigation areas of basins. The large additional uncertainties in VARSOC simulations introduced by the inclusion of parameterizations of human impacts raise the urgent need of GHMs development regarding a better understanding of human impacts. Differences in the parameterizations of irrigation, reservoir regulation and water withdrawals are discussed towards potential directions of improvements for future GHM development. We also discuss the advantages of statistical approaches to reduce the between-model uncertainties, and the importance of calibration of GHMs for not only better performances of historical simulations but also more robust and confidential future projections of hydrological changes under a changing environment.

Framing the Local Context and Estimating the Health Impact of CPPW Obesity Prevention Strategies in Los Angeles County, 2010-2012.

PubMed

Kuo, Tony; Robles, Brenda; Trogdon, Justin G; Ferencik, Rachel; Simon, Paul A; Fielding, Jonathan E

2016-01-01

Few studies have described the range and health impacts of obesity prevention strategies in local communities supported by the Communities Putting Prevention to Work program. To address this gap, we reviewed implemented strategies in Los Angeles County (LAC) for 3 program focus areas: physical activity-promotion, health marketing, and creation of healthy food environments. Local context and results from an impact simulation are presented. Information on population reach and program milestones was synthesized to describe historical and programmatic progress of the obesity prevention efforts during 2010-2012. To forecast health impacts, the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) was used to simulate population health outcomes, including projected changes in obesity burden and health behaviors 30 years into the future. LAC with more than 9.8 million residents. Low-income adults and youth who were the intended audiences of the Communities Putting Prevention to Work program in LAC. Implemented strategies for the 3 focus areas. Documentation of program reach and PRISM forecasting of obesity rates and health impacts. Implemented strategies in LAC ranged from best practices in healthy food procurement (estimated reach: 600 000 students, 300 000 meals per day) to completed shared-use agreements (10+ agreements across 5 school districts) to a series of strategically designed health marketing campaigns on healthy eating (>515 million impressions). On the basis of PRISM simulations, these highlighted program activities have the potential to reduce by 2040 the number of youth (-29 870) and adults (-94 136) with obesity, youth (-112 453) and adults (-855 855) below recommended levels of physical activity, and youth (-14 544) and adults (-28 835) who consumed excess junk food, as compared with baseline (2010-2011). Program context and PRISM-simulated health impacts showed modest but promising results in LAC, which may lead to further population health improvements in the future. Downstream health and behavioral surveillance data are needed to confirm these estimates.

Impinging Water Droplets on Inclined Glass Surfaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Armijo, Kenneth Miguel; Lance, Blake; Ho, Clifford K.

Multiphase computational models and tests of falling water droplets on inclined glass surfaces were developed to investigate the physics of impingement and potential of these droplets to self-clean glass surfaces for photovoltaic modules and heliostats. A multiphase volume-of-fluid model was developed in ANSYS Fluent to simulate the impinging droplets. The simulations considered different droplet sizes (1 mm and 3 mm), tilt angles (0°, 10°, and 45°), droplet velocities (1 m/s and 3 m/s), and wetting characteristics (wetting=47° contact angle and non-wetting = 93° contact angle). Results showed that the spread factor (maximum droplet diameter during impact divided by the initialmore » droplet diameter) decreased with increasing inclination angle due to the reduced normal force on the surface. The hydrophilic surface yielded greater spread factors than the hydrophobic surface in all cases. With regard to impact forces, the greater surface tilt angles yielded lower normal forces, but higher shear forces. Experiments showed that the experimentally observed spread factor (maximum droplet diameter during impact divided by the initial droplet diameter) was significantly larger than the simulated spread factor. Observed spread factors were on the order of 5 - 6 for droplet velocities of ~3 m/s, whereas the simulated spread factors were on the order of 2. Droplets were observed to be mobile following impact only for the cases with 45° tilt angle, which matched the simulations. An interesting phenomenon that was observed was that shortly after being released from the nozzle, the water droplet oscillated (like a trampoline) due to the "snapback" caused by the surface tension of the water droplet being released from the nozzle. This oscillation impacted the velocity immediately after the release. Future work should evaluate the impact of parameters such as tilt angle and surface wettability on the impact of particle/soiling uptake and removal to investigate ways that photovoltaic modules and heliostats can be designed to maximize self-cleaning.« less

Modeling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R. W. A.; Kruijt, B.; Quispe, J.; Añez, S.; Arora, V. K.; Melton, J. R.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

2014-05-01

Dynamic vegetation models have been used to assess the resilience of tropical forests to climate change, but the global application of these modeling experiments often misrepresents carbon dynamics at a regional level, limiting the validity of future projections. Here a dynamic vegetation model (Lund Potsdam Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) was adapted to simulate present-day potential vegetation as a baseline for climate change impact assessments in the evergreen and deciduous forests of Bolivia. Results were compared to biomass measurements (819 plots) and remote sensing data. Using regional parameter values for allometric relations, specific leaf area, wood density, and disturbance interval, a realistic transition from the evergreen Amazon to the deciduous dry forest was simulated. This transition coincided with threshold values for precipitation (1400 mm yr-1) and water deficit (i.e., potential evapotranspiration minus precipitation) (-830 mm yr-1), beyond which leaf abscission became a competitive advantage. Significant correlations were found between modeled and observed values of seasonal leaf abscission (R2 = 0.6, p <0.001) and vegetation carbon (R2 = 0.31, p <0.01). Modeled Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index showed that dry forests were more sensitive to rainfall anomalies than wet forests. GPP was positively correlated to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation index in the Amazon and negatively correlated to consecutive dry days. Decreasing rainfall trends were simulated to reduce GPP in the Amazon. The current model setup provides a baseline for assessing the potential impacts of climate change in the transition zone from wet to dry tropical forests in Bolivia.

Numerical simulation of humidification and heating during inspiration within an adult nose.

PubMed

Sommer, F; Kroger, R; Lindemann, J

2012-06-01

The temperature of inhaled air is highly relevant for the humidification process. Narrow anatomical conditions limit possibilities for in vivo measurements. Numerical simulations offer a great potential to examine the function of the human nose. In the present study, the nasal humidification of inhaled air was simulated simultaneously with temperature distribution during a respiratory cycle. A realistic nose model based on a multislice CT scan was created. The simulation was performed by the Software Fluent(r). Boundary conditions were based on previous in vivo measurements. Inhaled air had a temperature of 20(deg)C and relative humidity of 30%. The wall temperature was assumed to be variable from 34(deg)C to 30(deg)C with constant humidity saturation of 100% during the respiratory cycle. A substantial increase in temperature and humidity can be observed after passing the nasal valve area. Areas with high speed air flow, e.g. the space around the turbinates, show an intensive humidification and heating potential. Inspired air reaches 95% humidity and 28(deg)C within the nasopharynx. The human nose features an enormous humidification and heating capability. Warming and humidification are dependent on each other and show a similar spacial pattern. Concerning the climatisation function, the middle turbinate is of high importance. In contrast to in vivo measurements, numerical simulations can explore the impact of airflow distribution on nasal air conditioning. They are an effective method to investigate nasal pathologies and impacts of surgical procedures.

Multigeneration Cross-Contamination of Mail with Bacillus anthracis Spores

PubMed Central

Edmonds, Jason; Lindquist, H. D. Alan; Sabol, Jonathan; Martinez, Kenneth; Shadomy, Sean; Cymet, Tyler; Emanuel, Peter

2016-01-01

The release of biological agents, including those which could be used in biowarfare or bioterrorism in large urban areas, has been a concern for governments for nearly three decades. Previous incidents from Sverdlosk and the postal anthrax attack of 2001 have raised questions on the mechanism of spread of Bacillus anthracis spores as an aerosol or contaminant. Prior studies have demonstrated that Bacillus atrophaeus is easily transferred through simulated mail handing, but no reports have demonstrated this ability with Bacillus anthracis spores, which have morphological differences that may affect adhesion properties between spore and formite. In this study, equipment developed to simulate interactions across three generations of envelopes subjected to tumbling and mixing was used to evaluate the potential for cross-contamination of B. anthracis spores in simulated mail handling. In these experiments, we found that the potential for cross-contamination through letter tumbling from one generation to the next varied between generations while the presence of a fluidizer had no statistical impact on the transfer of material. Likewise, the presence or absence of a fluidizer had no statistically significant impact on cross-contamination levels or reaerosolization from letter opening. PMID:27123934

Bus lane with intermittent priority (BLIMP) concept simulation analysis final report : November 2009.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-11-01

The Lane Transit District, in cooperation with the National Bus Rapid Transit Institute (NBRTI) at the University of South Florida, completed a preliminary implementation study to determine the potential impacts of a new and innovative transit priori...

Ecosystem service impacts of future changes in CO2, climate, and land use as simulated by a coupled vegetation/land-use model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabin, S. S.; Alexander, P.; Henry, R.; Anthoni, P.; Pugh, T.; Rounsevell, M.; Arneth, A.

2017-12-01

In a future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, changing climate, increasing human populations, and changing socioeconomic dynamics, the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. Global modeling can help to explore what these adaptations will look like, and their potential impacts on ecosystem services. To do so, however, the complex interconnections among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and society mean that these various parts of the Earth system must be examined as an interconnected whole. With the goal of answering these questions, a model system has been developed that couples a biologically-representative global vegetation model, LPJ-GUESS, with the PLUMv2 land use model. LPJ-GUESS first simulates—at 0.5º resolution across the world—the potential yield of various crops and pasture under a range of management intensities for a time step given its atmospheric CO2 level and climatic forcings. These potential yield simulations are fed into PLUMv2, which uses them in conjunction with endogenous agricultural commodity demand and prices to produce land use and management inputs (fertilizer and irrigation water) at a sub-national level for the next time step. This process is performed through 2100 for a range of future climate and societal scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), respectively—providing a thorough exploration of possible trajectories of land use and land cover change. The land use projections produced by PLUMv2 are fed back into LPJ-GUESS to simulate the future impacts of land use change, along with increasing CO2 and climate change, on terrestrial ecosystems. This integrated analysis examines the resulting impacts on regulating and provisioning ecosystem services affecting biophysics (albedo); carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling; and the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs).

Small-scale impacts as potential trigger for landslides on small Solar system bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofmann, Marc; Sierks, Holger; Blum, Jürgen

2017-07-01

We conducted a set of experiments to investigate whether millimetre-sized impactors impinging on a granular material at several m s-1 are able to trigger avalanches on small, atmosphereless planetary bodies. These experiments were carried out at the Zentrum für angewandte Raumfahrttechnologie und Mikrogravitation (ZARM) drop tower facility in Bremen, Germany to facilitate a reduced gravity environment. Additional data were gathered at Earth gravity levels in the laboratory. As sample materials we used a ground Howardites, Eucrites and Diogenites (HED) meteorite and the Johnson Space Center (JSC) Mars-1 Martian soil simulant. We found that this type of small-scale impact can trigger avalanches with a moderate probability, if the target material is tilted to an angle close to the angle of repose. We additionally simulated a small-scale impact using the discrete element method code esys-particle. These simulations show that energy transfer from impactor to the target material is most efficient at low- and moderate-impactor inclinations and the transferred energy is retained in particles close to the surface due to a rapid dissipation of energy in lower material layers driven by inelastic collisions. Through Monte Carlo simulations we estimate the time-scale on which small-scale impacts with the observed characteristics will trigger avalanches covering all steep slopes on the surface of a small planetary body to be of the order 105 yr.

Modelling impacts and recovery in benthic communities exposed to localised high CO2.

PubMed

Lessin, Gennadi; Artioli, Yuri; Queirós, Ana M; Widdicombe, Stephen; Blackford, Jerry C

2016-08-15

Regulations pertaining to carbon dioxide capture with offshore storage (CCS) require an understanding of the potential localised environmental impacts and demonstrably suitable monitoring practices. This study uses a marine ecosystem model to examine a comprehensive range of hypothetical CO2 leakage scenarios, quantifying both impact and recovery time within the benthic system. Whilst significant mortalities and long recovery times were projected for the larger and longer term scenarios, shorter-term or low level exposures lead to reduced projected impacts. This suggests that efficient monitoring and leak mitigation strategies, coupled with appropriate selection of storage sites can effectively limit concerns regarding localised environmental impacts from CCS. The feedbacks and interactions between physiological and ecological responses simulated reveal that benthic responses to CO2 leakage could be complex. This type of modelling investigation can aid the understanding of impact potential, the role of benthic community recovery and inform the design of baseline and monitoring surveys. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High resolution simulations of energy absorption in dynamically loaded cellular structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, R. E.; Cotton, M.; Harris, E. J.; Eakins, D. E.; McShane, G.

2017-03-01

Cellular materials have potential application as absorbers of energy generated by high velocity impact. CTH, a Sandia National Laboratories Code which allows very severe strains to be simulated, has been used to perform very high resolution simulations showing the dynamic crushing of a series of two-dimensional, stainless steel metal structures with varying architectures. The structures are positioned to provide a cushion between a solid stainless steel flyer plate with velocities ranging from 300 to 900 m/s, and an initially stationary stainless steel target. Each of the alternative architectures under consideration was formed by an array of identical cells each of which had a constant volume and a constant density. The resolution of the simulations was maximised by choosing a configuration in which one-dimensional conditions persisted for the full period over which the specimen densified, a condition which is most readily met by impacting high density specimens at high velocity. It was found that the total plastic flow and, therefore, the irreversible energy dissipated in the fully densified energy absorbing cell, increase (a) as the structure becomes more rodlike and less platelike and (b) as the impact velocity increases. Sequential CTH images of the deformation processes show that the flow of the cell material may be broadly divided into macroscopic flow perpendicular to the compression direction and jetting-type processes (microkinetic flow) which tend to predominate in rod and rodlike configurations and also tend to play an increasing role at increased strain rates. A very simple analysis of a configuration in which a solid flyer impacts a solid target provides a baseline against which to compare and explain features seen in the simulations. The work provides a basis for the development of energy absorbing structures for application in the 200-1000 m/s impact regime.

Assessment of biogas production in Argentina from co-digestion of sludge and municipal solid waste.

PubMed

Morero, Betzabet; Vicentin, Rocio; Campanella, Enrique A

2017-03-01

In Argentina, there is an important potential to utilize organic waste to generate bioenergy. This work analyzes the environmental impacts and the energetic and economic requirements of the biogas produced by digesting the sewage sludge (SS) produced in a wastewater treatment plant in a medium city in Argentina. The SS is co-digested with the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW), and the basis of this study is the life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA is performed according to ISO 14040-44 using the SimaPro simulator. First, the transport of the raw materials to the biogas plant was defined. Then, the co-digestion and the biogas treatment for final use were evaluated. The co-digestion was improved with glycerol, and the generation of biogas was estimated using the GPS-X software. Two alternatives for the end use of biogas were considered: combined heat and power (CHP) and biomethane generation. For the first, H 2 S and water vapor were removed from the raw biogas stream, and for the second, also CO 2 was removed. The H 2 S removal process was simulated in the SuperPro software by anaerobic biofiltration. The same software was used to simulate the removal of CO 2 absorption-desorption with water as solvent. Finally, the environmental impacts related to the end use of biogas (CHP and biomethane) were evaluated. The environmental, energetic and economic analyses showed that the co-digestion of SS and OFMSW has great potential for reducing the environmental impacts and increasing the economic and energetic value of the substances via the production of biomethane, electricity and, potentially, fertilizer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computational Evolutionary Methodology for Knowledge Discovery and Forecasting in Epidemiology and Medicine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Dhananjai M.; Chernyakhovsky, Alexander; Rao, Victoria

2008-05-01

Humanity is facing an increasing number of highly virulent and communicable diseases such as avian influenza. Researchers believe that avian influenza has potential to evolve into one of the deadliest pandemics. Combating these diseases requires in-depth knowledge of their epidemiology. An effective methodology for discovering epidemiological knowledge is to utilize a descriptive, evolutionary, ecological model and use bio-simulations to study and analyze it. These types of bio-simulations fall under the category of computational evolutionary methods because the individual entities participating in the simulation are permitted to evolve in a natural manner by reacting to changes in the simulated ecosystem. This work describes the application of the aforementioned methodology to discover epidemiological knowledge about avian influenza using a novel eco-modeling and bio-simulation environment called SEARUMS. The mathematical principles underlying SEARUMS, its design, and the procedure for using SEARUMS are discussed. The bio-simulations and multi-faceted case studies conducted using SEARUMS elucidate its ability to pinpoint timelines, epicenters, and socio-economic impacts of avian influenza. This knowledge is invaluable for proactive deployment of countermeasures in order to minimize negative socioeconomic impacts, combat the disease, and avert a pandemic.

Computational Evolutionary Methodology for Knowledge Discovery and Forecasting in Epidemiology and Medicine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Dhananjai M.; Chernyakhovsky, Alexander; Rao, Victoria

2008-05-08

Humanity is facing an increasing number of highly virulent and communicable diseases such as avian influenza. Researchers believe that avian influenza has potential to evolve into one of the deadliest pandemics. Combating these diseases requires in-depth knowledge of their epidemiology. An effective methodology for discovering epidemiological knowledge is to utilize a descriptive, evolutionary, ecological model and use bio-simulations to study and analyze it. These types of bio-simulations fall under the category of computational evolutionary methods because the individual entities participating in the simulation are permitted to evolve in a natural manner by reacting to changes in the simulated ecosystem. Thismore » work describes the application of the aforementioned methodology to discover epidemiological knowledge about avian influenza using a novel eco-modeling and bio-simulation environment called SEARUMS. The mathematical principles underlying SEARUMS, its design, and the procedure for using SEARUMS are discussed. The bio-simulations and multi-faceted case studies conducted using SEARUMS elucidate its ability to pinpoint timelines, epicenters, and socio-economic impacts of avian influenza. This knowledge is invaluable for proactive deployment of countermeasures in order to minimize negative socioeconomic impacts, combat the disease, and avert a pandemic.« less

A water market simulator considering pair-wise trades between agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huskova, I.; Erfani, T.; Harou, J. J.

2012-04-01

In many basins in England no further water abstraction licences are available. Trading water between water rights holders has been recognized as a potentially effective and economically efficient strategy to mitigate increasing scarcity. A screening tool that could assess the potential for trade through realistic simulation of individual water rights holders would help assess the solution's potential contribution to local water management. We propose an optimisation-driven water market simulator that predicts pair-wise trade in a catchment and represents its interaction with natural hydrology and engineered infrastructure. A model is used to emulate licence-holders' willingness to engage in short-term trade transactions. In their simplest form agents are represented using an economic benefit function. The working hypothesis is that trading behaviour can be partially predicted based on differences in marginal values of water over space and time and estimates of transaction costs on pair-wise trades. We discuss the further possibility of embedding rules, norms and preferences of the different water user sectors to more realistically represent the behaviours, motives and constraints of individual licence holders. The potential benefits and limitations of such a social simulation (agent-based) approach is contrasted with our simulator where agents are driven by economic optimization. A case study based on the Dove River Basin (UK) demonstrates model inputs and outputs. The ability of the model to suggest impacts of water rights policy reforms on trading is discussed.

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Part 7. Economic Analysis of Field Crops and Land Use with Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sands, Ronald D.; Edmonds, James A.

PNNL's Agriculture and Land Use (AgLU) model is used to demonstrate the impact of potential changes in climate on agricultural production and land use in the United States. AgLU simulates production of four crop types in several world regions, in 15-year time steps from 1990 to 2095. Changes in yield of major field crops in the United States, for 12 climate scenarios, are obtained from simulations of the EPIC crop growth model. Results from the HUMUS model are used to constrain crop irrigation, and the BIOME3 model is used to simulate productivity of unmanaged ecosystems. Assumptions about changes in agriculturalmore » productivity outside the United States are treated on a scenario basis, either responding in the same way as in the United States, or not responding to climate.« less

Simulated grazing responses on the proposed prairies National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parton, William J.; Wright, R. Gerald; Risser, Paul G.

1980-03-01

The tallgrass prairie version of the ELM Grassland Model was used to evaluate the potential impact of establishing a tallgrass prairie National Park in the Flint Hills region of Kansas. This total ecosystem model simulates ( a) the flow of water, heat, nitrogen, and phosphorus through the ecosystem and( b) the biomass dynamics of plants and consumers. It was specifically developed to study the effects of levels and types of herbivory, climatic variation, and fertilization upon grassland ecosystems. The model was used to simulate the impact of building up herds of bison, elk, antelope, and wolves on a tallgrass prairie. The results show that the grazing levels in the park should not be decreased below the prepark grazing levels (moderate grazing with cattle) and that the final grazing levels in the park could be maintained at a slightly higher level than the prepark grazing levels.

Interaction and Impact Studies for Distributed Energy Resource, Transactive Energy, and Electric Grid, using High Performance Computing ?based Modeling and Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelley, B. M.

The electric utility industry is undergoing significant transformations in its operation model, including a greater emphasis on automation, monitoring technologies, and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS). With these changes and new technologies, while driving greater efficiencies and reliability, these new models may introduce new vectors of cyber attack. The appropriate cybersecurity controls to address and mitigate these newly introduced attack vectors and potential vulnerabilities are still widely unknown and performance of the control is difficult to vet. This proposal argues that modeling and simulation (M&S) is a necessary tool to address and better understand these problems introduced by emergingmore » technologies for the grid. M&S will provide electric utilities a platform to model its transmission and distribution systems and run various simulations against the model to better understand the operational impact and performance of cybersecurity controls.« less

An Internet Protocol-Based Software System for Real-Time, Closed-Loop, Multi-Spacecraft Mission Simulation Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, Richard D.; Davis, George; Cary, Everett; Higinbotham, John; Hogie, Keith

2003-01-01

A mission simulation prototype for Distributed Space Systems has been constructed using existing developmental hardware and software testbeds at NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center. A locally distributed ensemble of testbeds, connected through the local area network, operates in real time and demonstrates the potential to assess the impact of subsystem level modifications on system level performance and, ultimately, on the quality and quantity of the end product science data.

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Simulation of air quality impacts from prescribed fires on an urban area.

PubMed

Hu, Yongtao; Odman, M Talat; Chang, Michael E; Jackson, William; Lee, Sangil; Edgerton, Eric S; Baumann, Karsten; Russell, Armistead G

2008-05-15

On February 28, 2007, a severe smoke event caused by prescribed forest fires occurred in Atlanta, GA. Later smoke events in the southeastern metropolitan areas of the United States caused by the Georgia-Florida wild forest fires further magnified the significance of forest fire emissions and the benefits of being able to accurately predict such occurrences. By using preburning information, we utilize an operational forecasting system to simulate the potential air quality impacts from two large February 28th fires. Our "forecast" predicts that the scheduled prescribed fires would have resulted in over 1 million Atlanta residents being potentially exposed to fine particle matter (PM2.5) levels of 35 microg m(-3) or higher from 4 p.m. to midnight. The simulated peak 1 h PM2.5 concentration is about 121 microg m(-3). Our study suggests that the current air quality forecasting technology can be a useful tool for helping the management of fire activities to protect public health. With postburning information, our "hindcast" predictions improved significantly on timing and location and slightly on peak values. "Hindcast" simulations also indicated that additional isoprenoid emissions from pine species temporarily triggered by the fire could induce rapid ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation during late winter. Results from this study suggest that fire induced biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions missing from current fire emissions estimate should be included in the future.

Old Dog New Tricks: Use of Point-based Crop Models in Grid-based Regional Assessment of Crop Management Technologies Impact on Future Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koo, J.; Wood, S.; Cenacchi, N.; Fisher, M.; Cox, C.

2012-12-01

HarvestChoice (harvestchoice.org) generates knowledge products to guide strategic investments to improve the productivity and profitability of smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A keynote component of the HarvestChoice analytical framework is a grid-based overlay of SSA - a cropping simulation platform powered by process-based, crop models. Calibrated around the best available representation of cropping production systems in SSA, the simulation platform engages the DSSAT Crop Systems Model with the CENTURY Soil Organic Matter model (DSSAT-CENTURY) and provides a virtual experimentation module with which to explore the impact of a range of technological, managerial and environmental metrics on future crop productivity and profitability, as well as input use. For each of 5 (or 30) arc-minute grid cells in SSA, a stack of model input underlies it: datasets that cover soil properties and fertility, historic and future climate scenarios and farmers' management practices; all compiled from analyses of existing global and regional databases and consultations with other CGIAR centers. Running a simulation model is not always straightforward, especially when certain cropping systems or management practices are not even practiced by resource-poor farmers yet (e.g., precision agriculture) or they were never included in the existing simulation framework (e.g., water harvesting). In such cases, we used DSSAT-CENTURY as a function to iteratively estimate relative responses of cropping systems to technology-driven changes in water and nutrient balances compared to zero-adoption by farmers, while adjusting model input parameters to best mimic farmers' implementation of technologies in the field. We then fed the results of the simulation into to the economic and food trade model framework, IMPACT, to assess the potential implications on future food security. The outputs of the overall simulation analyses are packaged as a web-accessible database and published on the web with an interface that allows users to explore the simulation results in each country with user-defined baseline and what-if scenarios. The results are dynamically presented on maps, charts, and tables. This paper discusses the development of the simulation platform and its underlying data layers, a case study that assessed the role of potential crop management technology development, and the development of a web-based application that visualizes the simulation results.

Estimating the potential health impact and costs of implementing a local policy for food procurement to reduce the consumption of sodium in the county of Los Angeles.

PubMed

Gase, Lauren N; Kuo, Tony; Dunet, Diane; Schmidt, Steven M; Simon, Paul A; Fielding, Jonathan E

2011-08-01

We examined approaches to reduce sodium content of food served in settings operated or funded by the government of the County of Los Angeles, California. We adapted health impact assessment methods to mathematically simulate various levels of reduction in the sodium content of food served by the County of Los Angeles and to estimate the reductions' potential impacts on mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) among food-service customers. We used data provided by county government food-service vendors to generate these simulations. Our analysis predicted that if the postulated sodium-reduction strategies were implemented, adults would consume, on average, 233 fewer milligrams of sodium each day. This would correspond to an average decrease of 0.71 millimeters of mercury in SBP among adult hypertensives, 388 fewer cases of uncontrolled hypertension in the study population, and an annual decrease of $629,724 in direct health care costs. Our findings suggest that a food-procurement policy can contribute to positive health and economic effects at the local level. Our approach may serve as an example of sodium-reduction analysis for other jurisdictions to follow.

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminous USA with land use and variable fire regimes.

PubMed

Bachelet, Dominique; Ferschweiler, Ken; Sheehan, Timothy J; Sleeter, Benjamin M; Zhu, Zhiliang

2015-12-01

The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) MC2 was run over the conterminous USA at 30 arc sec (~800 m) to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential vegetation dynamics from coast to coast assuming no human impacts and naturally occurring wildfires. A moderate effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency and growth enhanced carbon sequestration but did not greatly influence woody encroachment. The wildfires maintained prairie-forest ecotones in the Great Plains. With simulated fire suppression, the number and impacts of wildfires was reduced as only catastrophic fires were allowed to escape. This greatly increased the expansion of forests and woodlands across the western USA and some of the ecotones disappeared. However, when fires did occur, their impacts (both extent and biomass consumed) were very large. We also evaluated the relative influence of human land use including forest and crop harvest by running the DGVM with land use (and fire suppression) and simple land management rules. From 2041 through 2060, carbon stocks (live biomass, soil and dead biomass) of US terrestrial ecosystems varied between 155 and 162 Pg C across the three emission scenarios when potential natural vegetation was simulated. With land use, periodic harvest of croplands and timberlands as well as the prevention of woody expansion across the West reduced carbon stocks to a range of 122-126 Pg C, while effective fire suppression reduced fire emissions by about 50%. Despite the simplicity of our approach, the differences between the size of the carbon stocks confirm other reports of the importance of land use on the carbon cycle over climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simulations of Ground and Space-Based Oxygen Atom Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Finchum, A. (Technical Monitor); Cline, J. A.; Minton, T. K.; Braunstein, M.

2003-01-01

A low-earth orbit (LEO) materials erosion scenario and the ground-based experiment designed to simulate it are compared using the direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. The DSMC model provides a detailed description of the interactions between the hyperthermal gas flow and a normally oriented flat plate for each case. We find that while the general characteristics of the LEO exposure are represented in the ground-based experiment, multi-collision effects can potentially alter the impact energy and directionality of the impinging molecules in the ground-based experiment. Multi-collision phenomena also affect downstream flux measurements.

Simulation and experimental study of 802.11 based networking for vehicular management and safety.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-01

This work focuses on the use of wireless networking techniques for their potential impact in providing : information for traffic management, control and public safety goals. The premise of this work is based on the : reasonable expectation that vehic...

Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecophysiological models of crop growth have seen wide use in IPCC and related assessments. However, the diversity of modeling approaches constrains cross-study syntheses and increases potential for bias. We reviewed 139 peer-reviewed papers dealing with climate change and agriculture, considering si...

Investigation for Molecular Attraction Impact Between Contacting Surfaces in Micro-Gears

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ping; Li, Xialong; Zhao, Yanfang; Yang, Haiying; Wang, Shuting; Yang, Jianming

2013-10-01

The aim of this research work is to provide a systematic method to perform molecular attraction impact between contacting surfaces in micro-gear train. This method is established by integrating involute profile analysis and molecular dynamics simulation. A mathematical computation of micro-gear involute is presented based on geometrical properties, Taylor expression and Hamaker assumption. In the meantime, Morse potential function and the cut-off radius are introduced with a molecular dynamics simulation. So a hybrid computational method for the Van Der Waals force between the contacting faces in micro-gear train is developed. An example is illustrated to show the performance of this method. The results show that the change of Van Der Waals force in micro-gear train has a nonlinear characteristic with parameters change such as the modulus of the gear and the tooth number of gear etc. The procedure implies a potential feasibility that we can control the Van Der Waals force by adjusting the manufacturing parameters for gear train design.

Effects on Task Performance and Psychophysiological Measures of Performance During Normobaric Hypoxia Exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, Chad; Kennedy, Kellie; Napoli, Nicholas; Demas, Matthew; Barnes, Laura; Crook, Brenda; Williams, Ralph; Last, Mary Carolyn; Schutte, Paul

2017-01-01

Human-autonomous systems have the potential to mitigate pilot cognitive impairment and improve aviation safety. A research team at NASA Langley conducted an experiment to study the impact of mild normobaric hypoxia induction on aircraft pilot performance and psychophysiological state. A within-subjects design involved non-hypoxic and hypoxic exposures while performing three 10-minute tasks. Results indicated the effect of 15,000 feet simulated altitude did not induce significant performance decrement but did produce increase in perceived workload. Analyses of psychophysiological responses evince the potential of biomarkers for hypoxia onset. This study represents on-going work at NASA intending to add to the current knowledge of psychophysiologically-based input to automation to increase aviation safety. Analyses involving coupling across physiological systems and wavelet transforms of cortical activity revealed patterns that can discern between the simulated altitude conditions. Specifically, multivariate entropy of ECG/Respiration components were found to be significant predictors (p< 0.02) of hypoxia. Furthermore, in EEG, there was a significant decrease in mid-level beta (15.19-18.37Hz) during the hypoxic condition in thirteen of sixteen sites across the scalp. Task performance was not appreciably impacted by the effect of 15,000 feet simulated altitude. Analyses of psychophysiological responses evince the potential of biomarkers for mild hypoxia onset.The potential for identifying shifts in underlying cortical and physiological systems could serve as a means to identify the onset of deteriorated cognitive state. Enabling such assessment in future flightdecks could permit increasingly autonomous systems-supported operations. Augmenting human operator through assessment of cognitive impairment has the potential to further improve operator performance and mitigate human error in safety critical contexts. This study represents ongoing work at NASA intending to add to the current knowledge of psychophysiologically-based input to automation to increase aviation safety.

Impacts of Fluid Dynamics Simulation in Study of Nasal Airflow Physiology and Pathophysiology in Realistic Human Three-Dimensional Nose Models

PubMed Central

Lee, Heow Peuh; Gordon, Bruce R.

2012-01-01

During the past decades, numerous computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies, constructed from CT or MRI images, have simulated human nasal models. As compared to rhinomanometry and acoustic rhinometry, which provide quantitative information only of nasal airflow, resistance, and cross sectional areas, CFD enables additional measurements of airflow passing through the nasal cavity that help visualize the physiologic impact of alterations in intranasal structures. Therefore, it becomes possible to quantitatively measure, and visually appreciate, the airflow pattern (laminar or turbulent), velocity, pressure, wall shear stress, particle deposition, and temperature changes at different flow rates, in different parts of the nasal cavity. The effects of both existing anatomical factors, as well as post-operative changes, can be assessed. With recent improvements in CFD technology and computing power, there is a promising future for CFD to become a useful tool in planning, predicting, and evaluating outcomes of nasal surgery. This review discusses the possibilities and potential impacts, as well as technical limitations, of using CFD simulation to better understand nasal airflow physiology. PMID:23205221

Investigating the Impact of Surface Heterogeneity on the Convective Boundary Layer Over Urban Areas Through Coupled Large-Eddy Simulation and Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dominguez, Anthony; Kleissl, Jan P.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.

2011-01-01

Large-eddy Simulation (LES) was used to study convective boundary layer (CBL) flow through suburban regions with both large and small scale heterogeneities in surface temperature. Constant remotely sensed surface temperatures were applied at the surface boundary at resolutions of 10 m, 90 m, 200 m, and 1 km. Increasing the surface resolution from 1 km to 200 m had the most significant impact on the mean and turbulent flow characteristics as the larger scale heterogeneities became resolved. While previous studies concluded that scales of heterogeneity much smaller than the CBL inversion height have little impact on the CBL characteristics, we found that further increasing the surface resolution (resolving smaller scale heterogeneities) results in an increase in mean surface heat flux, thermal blending height, and potential temperature profile. The results of this study will help to better inform sub-grid parameterization for meso-scale meteorological models. The simulation tool developed through this study (combining LES and high resolution remotely sensed surface conditions) is a significant step towards future studies on the micro-scale meteorology in urban areas.

Impact of an equality constraint on the class-specific residual variances in regression mixtures: A Monte Carlo simulation study.

PubMed

Kim, Minjung; Lamont, Andrea E; Jaki, Thomas; Feaster, Daniel; Howe, George; Van Horn, M Lee

2016-06-01

Regression mixture models are a novel approach to modeling the heterogeneous effects of predictors on an outcome. In the model-building process, often residual variances are disregarded and simplifying assumptions are made without thorough examination of the consequences. In this simulation study, we investigated the impact of an equality constraint on the residual variances across latent classes. We examined the consequences of constraining the residual variances on class enumeration (finding the true number of latent classes) and on the parameter estimates, under a number of different simulation conditions meant to reflect the types of heterogeneity likely to exist in applied analyses. The results showed that bias in class enumeration increased as the difference in residual variances between the classes increased. Also, an inappropriate equality constraint on the residual variances greatly impacted on the estimated class sizes and showed the potential to greatly affect the parameter estimates in each class. These results suggest that it is important to make assumptions about residual variances with care and to carefully report what assumptions are made.

Impact of Assimilation on Heavy Rainfall Simulations Using WRF Model: Sensitivity of Assimilation Results to Background Error Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakesh, V.; Kantharao, B.

2017-03-01

Data assimilation is considered as one of the effective tools for improving forecast skill of mesoscale models. However, for optimum utilization and effective assimilation of observations, many factors need to be taken into account while designing data assimilation methodology. One of the critical components that determines the amount and propagation observation information into the analysis, is model background error statistics (BES). The objective of this study is to quantify how BES in data assimilation impacts on simulation of heavy rainfall events over a southern state in India, Karnataka. Simulations of 40 heavy rainfall events were carried out using Weather Research and Forecasting Model with and without data assimilation. The assimilation experiments were conducted using global and regional BES while the experiment with no assimilation was used as the baseline for assessing the impact of data assimilation. The simulated rainfall is verified against high-resolution rain-gage observations over Karnataka. Statistical evaluation using several accuracy and skill measures shows that data assimilation has improved the heavy rainfall simulation. Our results showed that the experiment using regional BES outperformed the one which used global BES. Critical thermo-dynamic variables conducive for heavy rainfall like convective available potential energy simulated using regional BES is more realistic compared to global BES. It is pointed out that these results have important practical implications in design of forecast platforms while decision-making during extreme weather events

Representation of deforestation impacts on climate, water, and nutrient cycles in the ACME earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, X.; Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.

2017-12-01

Deforestation causes a series of changes to the climate, water, and nutrient cycles. Employing a state-of-the-art earth system model—ACME (Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy), we comprehensively investigate the impacts of deforestation on these processes. We first assess the performance of the ACME Land Model (ALM) in simulating runoff, evapotranspiration, albedo, and plant productivity at 42 FLUXNET sites. The single column mode of ACME is then used to examine climate effects (temperature cooling/warming) and responses of runoff, evapotranspiration, and nutrient fluxes to deforestation. This approach separates local effects of deforestation from global circulation effects. To better understand the deforestation effects in a global context, we use the coupled (atmosphere, land, and slab ocean) mode of ACME to demonstrate the impacts of deforestation on global climate, water, and nutrient fluxes. Preliminary results showed that the land component of ACME has advantages in simulating these processes and that local deforestation has potentially large impacts on runoff and atmospheric processes.

Impact of pharmacy automation on patient waiting time: an application of computer simulation.

PubMed

Tan, Woan Shin; Chua, Siang Li; Yong, Keng Woh; Wu, Tuck Seng

2009-06-01

This paper aims to illustrate the use of computer simulation in evaluating the impact of a prototype automated dispensing system on waiting time in an outpatient pharmacy and its potential as a routine tool in pharmacy management. A discrete event simulation model was developed to investigate the impact of a prototype automated dispensing system on operational efficiency and service standards in an outpatient pharmacy. The simulation results suggest that automating the prescription-filing function using a prototype that picks and packs at 20 seconds per item will not assist the pharmacy in achieving the waiting time target of 30 minutes for all patients. Regardless of the state of automation, to meet the waiting time target, 2 additional pharmacists are needed to overcome the process bottleneck at the point of medication dispense. However, if the automated dispensing is the preferred option, the speed of the system needs to be twice as fast as the current configuration to facilitate the reduction of the 95th percentile patient waiting time to below 30 minutes. The faster processing speed will concomitantly allow the pharmacy to reduce the number of pharmacy technicians from 11 to 8. Simulation was found to be a useful and low cost method that allows an otherwise expensive and resource intensive evaluation of new work processes and technology to be completed within a short time.

Modeling the effects of hydrology on gross primary productivity and net ecosystem productivity at Mer Bleue bog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimitrov, Dimitre D.; Grant, Robert F.; Lafleur, Peter M.; Humphreys, Elyn R.

2011-12-01

The ecosys model was applied to investigate the effects of water table and subsurface hydrology changes on carbon dioxide exchange at the ombrotrophic Mer Bleue peatland, Ontario, Canada. It was hypothesized that (1) water table drawdown would not affect vascular canopy water potential, hence vascular productivity, because roots would penetrate deeper to compensate for near-surface dryness, (2) moss canopy water potential and productivity would be severely reduced because rhizoids occupy the uppermost peat that is subject to desiccation with water table decline, and (3) given that in a previous study of Mer Bleue, ecosystem respiration showed little sensitivity to water table drawdown, gross primary productivity would mainly determine the net ecosystem productivity through these vegetation-subsurface hydrology linkages. Model output was compared with literature reports and hourly eddy-covariance measurements during 2000-2004. Our findings suggest that late-summer water table drawdown in 2001 had only a minor impact on vascular canopy water potential but greatly impacted hummock moss water potential, where midday values declined to -250 MPa on average in the model. As a result, simulated moss productivity was reduced by half, which largely explained a reduction of 2-3 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1 in midday simulated and measurement-derived gross primary productivity and an equivalent reduction in simulated and measured net ecosystem productivity. The water content of the near-surface peat (top 5-10 cm) was found to be the most important driver of interannual variability of annual net ecosystem productivity through its effects on hummock moss productivity and on ecosystem respiration.

A Simulation Tool for Dynamic Contrast Enhanced MRI

PubMed Central

Mauconduit, Franck; Christen, Thomas; Barbier, Emmanuel Luc

2013-01-01

The quantification of bolus-tracking MRI techniques remains challenging. The acquisition usually relies on one contrast and the analysis on a simplified model of the various phenomena that arise within a voxel, leading to inaccurate perfusion estimates. To evaluate how simplifications in the interstitial model impact perfusion estimates, we propose a numerical tool to simulate the MR signal provided by a dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE) MRI experiment. Our model encompasses the intrinsic and relaxations, the magnetic field perturbations induced by susceptibility interfaces (vessels and cells), the diffusion of the water protons, the blood flow, the permeability of the vessel wall to the the contrast agent (CA) and the constrained diffusion of the CA within the voxel. The blood compartment is modeled as a uniform compartment. The different blocks of the simulation are validated and compared to classical models. The impact of the CA diffusivity on the permeability and blood volume estimates is evaluated. Simulations demonstrate that the CA diffusivity slightly impacts the permeability estimates ( for classical blood flow and CA diffusion). The effect of long echo times is investigated. Simulations show that DCE-MRI performed with an echo time may already lead to significant underestimation of the blood volume (up to 30% lower for brain tumor permeability values). The potential and the versatility of the proposed implementation are evaluated by running the simulation with realistic vascular geometry obtained from two photons microscopy and with impermeable cells in the extravascular environment. In conclusion, the proposed simulation tool describes DCE-MRI experiments and may be used to evaluate and optimize acquisition and processing strategies. PMID:23516414

Challenges in reducing the computational time of QSTS simulations for distribution system analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deboever, Jeremiah; Zhang, Xiaochen; Reno, Matthew J.

The rapid increase in penetration of distributed energy resources on the electric power distribution system has created a need for more comprehensive interconnection modelling and impact analysis. Unlike conventional scenario - based studies , quasi - static time - series (QSTS) simulation s can realistically model time - dependent voltage controllers and the diversity of potential impacts that can occur at different times of year . However, to accurately model a distribution system with all its controllable devices, a yearlong simulation at 1 - second resolution is often required , which could take conventional computers a computational time of 10more » to 120 hours when an actual unbalanced distribution feeder is modeled . This computational burden is a clear l imitation to the adoption of QSTS simulation s in interconnection studies and for determining optimal control solutions for utility operations . Our ongoing research to improve the speed of QSTS simulation has revealed many unique aspects of distribution system modelling and sequential power flow analysis that make fast QSTS a very difficult problem to solve. In this report , the most relevant challenges in reducing the computational time of QSTS simulations are presented: number of power flows to solve, circuit complexity, time dependence between time steps, multiple valid power flow solutions, controllable element interactions, and extensive accurate simulation analysis.« less

Geochemical Impacts of Carbon Dioxide, Brine, Trace Metal and Organic Leakage into an Unconfined, Oxidizing Limestone Aquifer

DOE PAGES

Bacon, Diana H.; Dai, Zhenxue; Zheng, Liange

2014-12-31

An important risk at CO2 storage sites is the potential for groundwater quality impacts. As part of a system to assess the potential for these impacts a geochemical scaling function has been developed, based on a detailed reactive transport model of CO2 and brine leakage into an unconfined, oxidizing carbonate aquifer. Stochastic simulations varying a number of geochemical parameters were used to generate a response surface predicting the volume of aquifer that would be impacted with respect to regulated contaminants. The brine was assumed to contain several trace metals and organic contaminants. Aquifer pH and TDS were influenced by CO2more » leakage, while trace metal concentrations were most influenced by the brine concentrations rather than adsorption or desorption on calcite. Organic plume sizes were found to be strongly influenced by biodegradation.« less

Development of a non-linear simulation for generic hypersonic vehicles - ASUHS1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salas, Juan; Lovell, T. Alan; Schmidt, David K.

1993-01-01

A nonlinear simulation is developed to model the longitudinal motion of a vehicle in hypersonic flight. The equations of motion pertinent to this study are presented. Analytic expressions for the aerodynamic forces acting on a hypersonic vehicle which were obtained from Newtonian Impact Theory are further developed. The control surface forces are further examined to incorporate vehicle elastic motion. The purpose is to establish feasible equations of motion which combine rigid body, elastic, and aeropropulsive dynamics for use in nonlinear simulations. The software package SIMULINK is used to implement the simulation. Also discussed are issues needing additional attention and potential problems associated with the implementation (with proposed solutions).

The impact of a retirement savings account cap.

PubMed

VanDerhei, Jack

2013-08-01

This Issue Brief provides an initial analysis of the potential financial impact on private-sector retirement benefits of the retirement savings account cap included in the Obama administration's FY 2014 budget proposal. It finds that although a very small percentage of current 401(k) participants with IRA accounts have combined balances sufficient to be immediately affected by the proposed limit, over time (and depending on the applicable discount rates, whether a defined benefit pension is involved, and the size of the 401(k) plan) the impact could be much greater. Simulation results for 401(k) participants assuming no defined benefit accruals and no job turnover show that more than 1 in 10 current 401(k) participants are likely to hit the proposed limit sometime prior to age 65, even at the current historically low discount rate of 4 percent. When the simulation is rerun with discount rate assumptions closer to historical averages, the percentage of 401(k) participants likely to be affected by these proposed limits increases substantially: For example, with an 8 percent discount rate, more than 20 percent of the 401(k) participants are simulated to reach the limit prior to retirement. When the impact of stylized, defined benefit account assumptions are added to the analysis, the percentage of 401(k) participants simulated to reach the proposed limits increases even more: In fact, for 401(k) participants assumed to be covered by a 2 percent, three-year, final-average plan with a subsidized early retirement at 62, nearly a third are assumed to be affected by the proposed limit at an 8 percent discount rate. Additional analysis is performed for small plans (those with less than 100 participants) to assess the potential impact of eventual plan terminations if an when the owners and/or key decision makers of the firms reach the cap threshold. Depending on plan size, this may involve as few as 18 percent of the firms (at a 4 percent discount rate) to as many as 75 percent of the firms (at an 8 percent discount rates).

Large-scale Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Simulations in Complex Geological Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Therrien, R.; Lemieux, J.

2011-12-01

The study of a potential deep repository for radioative waste disposal in Canada context requires simulation capabilities for thermo-hydro-mechanical processes. It is expected that the host rock for the deep repository will be subjected to a variety of stresses during its lifetime such as in situ stresses in the rock, stressed caused by excavation of the repository and thermo-mechanical stresses. Another stress of concern for future Canadian climates will results from various episodes of glaciation. In that case, it can be expected that over 3 km of ice may be present over the land mass, which will create a glacial load that will be transmitted to the underlying geological materials and therefore impact their mechanical and hydraulic responses. Glacial loading will affect pore fluid pressures in the subsurface, which will in turn affect groundwater velocities and the potential migration of radionuclides from the repository. In addition, permafrost formation and thawing resulting from glacial advance and retreat will modify the bulk hydraulic of the geological materials and will have a potentially large impact on groundwater flow patterns, especially groundwater recharge. In the context of a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel, the performance of the repository to contain the spent nuclear fuel must be evaluated for periods that span several hundred thousand years. The time-frame for thermo-hydro-mechanical simulations is therefore extremely long and efficient numerical techniques must be developed. Other challenges are the representation of geological formations that have potentially complex geometries and physical properties and may contain fractures. The spatial extent of the simulation domain is also very large and can potentially reach the size of a sedimentary basin. Mass transport must also be considered because the fluid salinity in a sedimentary basin can be highly variable and the effect of fluid density on groundwater flow must be accounted for. Adding mass transport with density effect introduces further non-linearities in the governing equations, thus leading to increased simulation times. We will present challenges and current developments related to this topic in the Canadian context. Current efforts aim at improving simulation capabilities for large-scale 3D thermo-hydro-mechanical simulation in complex geologic materials. One topic of interest is to evaluate the appropriateness of simplifying the effect of glacial loading by using a one-dimensional hydro-mechanical representation that assumes purely vertical strain as opposed to the much more computationally intensive 3D representation.

Impact of Workplace and Other Convenient Vehicle Charging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levinson, Rebecca Sobel; West, Todd H.

This work uses market analysis and simulation to explore the potential impact of workplace and similarly convenient away-from-home charging infrastructure (AFHCI) in reducing US light duty vehicle (LDV) petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions. The ParaChoice model simulates the evolution of LDV sales, fuel use, and emissions through 2050, considering consumer responses to different options of electric range extension made available through AFHCI, fraction of the population with access, and delay in infrastructure implementation. Results indicate that providing a greater fraction of the population access to level 1 AFHCI for a full workday may provide more benefit than providing levelmore » 2 charging to a lesser fraction. This result holds even considering the fraction of the population without at-home charging. Moreover, delays in infrastructure implementation have no substantial drawbacks for long term petroleum use reduction and EV adoption, though delays will impact short term gains.« less

Measurements of the ionization coefficient of simulated iron micrometeoroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Evan; Horányi, Mihály; Janches, Diego; Munsat, Tobin; Simolka, Jonas; Sternovsky, Zoltan

2016-04-01

The interpretation of meteor radar observations has remained an open problem for decades. One of the most critical parameters to establish the size of an incoming meteoroid from radar echoes is the ionization coefficient, β, which still remains poorly known. Here we report on new experiments to simulate micrometeoroid ablation in laboratory conditions to measure β for iron particles impacting N2, air, CO2, and He gases. This new data set is compared to previous laboratory data where we find agreement except for He and air impacts > 30 km/s. We calibrate the Jones model of β(v) and provide fit parameters to these gases and find agreement with all gases except CO2 and high-speed air impacts where we observe βair > 1 for velocities > 70 km/s. These data therefore demonstrate potential problems with using the Jones model for CO2 atmospheres as well as for high-speed meteors on Earth.

Asteroid Impact Deflection and Assessment (AIDA) mission - Full-Scale Modeling and Simulation of Ejecta Evolution and Fates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fahnestock, Eugene G.; Yu, Yang; Hamilton, Douglas P.; Schwartz, Stephen; Stickle, Angela; Miller, Paul L.; Cheng, Andy F.; Michel, Patrick; AIDA Impact Simulation Working Group

2016-10-01

The proposed Asteroid Impact Deflection and Assessment (AIDA) mission includes NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), whose impact with the secondary of near-Earth binary asteroid 65803 Didymos is expected to liberate large amounts of ejecta. We present efforts within the AIDA Impact Simulation Working Group to comprehensively simulate the behavior of this impact ejecta as it moves through and exits the system. Group members at JPL, OCA, and UMD have been working largely independently, developing their own strategies and methodologies. Ejecta initial conditions may be imported from output of hydrocode impact simulations or generated from crater scaling laws derived from point-source explosion models. We started with the latter approach, using reasonable assumptions for the secondary's density, porosity, surface cohesive strength, and vanishingly small net gravitational/rotational surface acceleration. We adopted DART's planned size, mass, closing velocity, and impact geometry for the cratering event. Using independent N-Body codes, we performed Monte Carlo integration of ejecta particles sampled over reasonable particle size ranges, and over launch locations within the crater footprint. In some cases we scaled the number of integrated particles in various size bins to the estimated number of particles consistent with a realistic size-frequency distribution. Dynamical models used for the particle integration varied, but all included full gravity potential of both primary and secondary, the solar tide, and solar radiation pressure (accounting for shadowing). We present results for the proportions of ejecta reaching ultimate fates of escape, return impact on the secondary, and transfer impact onto the primary. We also present the time history of reaching those outcomes, i.e., ejecta clearing timescales, and the size-frequency distribution of remaining ejecta at given post-impact durations. We find large numbers of particles remain in the system for several weeks after impact. Clearing timescales are nonlinearly dependent on particle size as expected, such that only the largest ejecta persist longest. We find results are strongly dependent on the local surface geometry at the modeled impact locations.

Start-to-end simulation of single-particle imaging using ultra-short pulses at the European X-ray Free-Electron Laser

PubMed Central

Buzmakov, Alexey; Jurek, Zoltan; Loh, Ne-Te Duane; Samoylova, Liubov; Santra, Robin; Schneidmiller, Evgeny A.; Tschentscher, Thomas; Yakubov, Sergey; Yoon, Chun Hong; Yurkov, Michael V.; Ziaja-Motyka, Beata; Mancuso, Adrian P.

2017-01-01

Single-particle imaging with X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) has the potential to provide structural information at atomic resolution for non-crystalline biomolecules. This potential exists because ultra-short intense pulses can produce interpretable diffraction data notwithstanding radiation damage. This paper explores the impact of pulse duration on the interpretability of diffraction data using comprehensive and realistic simulations of an imaging experiment at the European X-ray Free-Electron Laser. It is found that the optimal pulse duration for molecules with a few thousand atoms at 5 keV lies between 3 and 9 fs. PMID:28989713

DESIGNING SUSTAINABLE PROCESSES WITH SIMULATION: THE WASTE REDUCTION (WAR) ALGORITHM

EPA Science Inventory

The WAR Algorithm, a methodology for determining the potential environmental impact (PEI) of a chemical process, is presented with modifications that account for the PEI of the energy consumed within that process. From this theory, four PEI indexes are used to evaluate the envir...

Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of Southern Saskatchewan

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study assessed potential impacts of climate change on wheat production as a biofuel crop in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer-Cropping System Model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate biomass and grain yield under three climate change scenarios ...

Crop response to climate: ecophysical models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecophysiological models were the dominant tools used to estimate the potential impact of climate change in agroecosystems in the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports of the IPCC and are widely used elsewhere in climate change research. These models, also known as “crop models” or “simulation models”,...

THE SECOND GENERATION OF THE WASTE REDUCTION (WAR) ALGORITHM: A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR GREENER CHEMICAL PROCESSES

EPA Science Inventory

chemical process designers using simulation software generate alternative designs for one process. One criterion for evaluating these designs is their potential for adverse environmental impacts due to waste generated, energy consumed, and possibilities for fugitive emissions. Co...

The Impact of Students' Exploration Strategies on Discovery Learning Using Computer-Based Simulations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dalgarno, Barney; Kennedy, Gregor; Bennett, Sue

2014-01-01

Discovery-based learning designs incorporating active exploration are common within instructional software. However, researchers have highlighted empirical evidence showing that "pure" discovery learning is of limited value and strategies which reduce complexity and provide guidance to learners are important if potential learning…

Population viability impacts of habitat additions and subtractions: A simulation experiment with endangered kangaroo rats

EPA Science Inventory

Species viability is influenced by the quality, quantity and configuration of habitat. For species at risk, a principal challenge is to identify landscape configurations that, if realized, would improve a population’s viability or restoration potential. Critical habitat patche...

Simulations of the Montréal urban heat island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberge, François; Sushama, Laxmi; Fanta, Gemechu

2017-04-01

The current population of Montreal is around 3.8 million and this number is projected to go up in the coming years to decades, which will lead to vast expansion of urban areas. It is well known that urban morphology impacts weather and climate, and therefore should be taken into consideration in urban planning. This is particularly important in the context of a changing climate, as the intensity and frequency of temperature extremes such as hot spells are projected to increase in future climate, and Urban Heat Island (UHI) can potentially raise already stressful temperatures during such events, which can have significant effects on human health and energy consumption. High-resolution regional climate model simulations can be utilized to understand better urban-weather/climate interactions in current and future climates, particularly the spatio-temporal characteristics of the Urban Heat Island and its impact on other weather/climate characteristics such as urban flows, precipitation etc. This paper will focus on two high-resolution (250 m) simulations performed with (1) the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and (2) CLASS and TEB (Town Energy Balance) model; TEB is a single layer urban canopy model and is used to model the urban fractions. The two simulations are performed over a domain covering Montreal for the 1960-2015 period, driven by atmospheric forcing data coming from a high-resolution Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) simulation, driven by ERA-Interim. The two simulations are compared to assess the impact of urban regions on selected surface fields and the simulation with both CLASS and TEB is then used to study the spatio-temporal characteristics of the UHI over the study domain. Some preliminary results from a coupled simulation, i.e. CRCM5+CLASS+TEB, for selected years, including extreme warm years, will also be presented.

The integrated simulation and assessment of the impacts of process change in biotherapeutic antibody production.

PubMed

Chhatre, Sunil; Jones, Carl; Francis, Richard; O'Donovan, Kieran; Titchener-Hooker, Nigel; Newcombe, Anthony; Keshavarz-Moore, Eli

2006-01-01

Growing commercial pressures in the pharmaceutical industry are establishing a need for robust computer simulations of whole bioprocesses to allow rapid prediction of the effects of changes made to manufacturing operations. This paper presents an integrated process simulation that models the cGMP manufacture of the FDA-approved biotherapeutic CroFab, an IgG fragment used to treat rattlesnake envenomation (Protherics U.K. Limited, Blaenwaun, Ffostrasol, Llandysul, Wales, U.K.). Initially, the product is isolated from ovine serum by precipitation and centrifugation, before enzymatic digestion of the IgG to produce FAB and FC fragments. These are purified by ion exchange and affinity chromatography to remove the FC and non-specific FAB fragments from the final venom-specific FAB product. The model was constructed in a discrete event simulation environment and used to determine the potential impact of a series of changes to the process, such as increasing the step efficiencies or volumes of chromatographic matrices, upon product yields and process times. The study indicated that the overall FAB yield was particularly sensitive to changes in the digestive and affinity chromatographic step efficiencies, which have a predicted 30% greater impact on process FAB yield than do the precipitation or centrifugation stages. The study showed that increasing the volume of affinity matrix has a negligible impact upon total process time. Although results such as these would require experimental verification within the physical constraints of the process and the facility, the model predictions are still useful in allowing rapid "what-if" scenario analysis of the likely impacts of process changes within such an integrated production process.

Prediction of the run out extents of the Slano Blato landslide for future debris flow events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Askarinejad, Amin; Leu, Pascal; Macek, Matej; Petkovsek, Ana; Springman, Sarah

2013-04-01

The Slano Blato landslide has a volume of about 1 mio m3 and is located in the western part of Slovenia. It has been considered to be a potential natural hazard for the village of Lokavec for more than 200 years. Several mud flows, exhibiting a range of volumes and velocities, have originated from the landslide body since the year 2000, when the landslide was reactivated due to an intense rainfall event. A series of obstacles, including safety dams and deposition ponds, have been constructed for the remediation of the landslide. These obstacles are designed to absorb and contain future debris flow hazard. A prerequisite to any risk analysis is to establish the vulnerability to the hazard event. The aim of this work is to simulate possible future debris flow scenarios in order to predict the run out distances, flow heights, impact pressures and potential effects on the downstream village buildings and infrastructure. The simulations were carried out using the RAMMS program (RApid Mass MovementS, www.ramms.slf.ch). A three dimensional terrain model of the landslide area and the downstream zones, with or without the inclusion of the obstacles, was made for the simulations and different scenarios concerning the released volume, the internal friction and viscosity of the sliding mass were studied. The results indicate that low viscosity mudflows with a volume of 5,000 m3 endanger some parts of Lokavec village. However, the simulations with volumes of 15,000 and 50,000 m3 predict catastrophic effects in terms of either impact pressures or deposition heights for the majority of houses. Moreover, the simulations confirmed that the choice of the material properties (internal friction and viscosity), the characteristics of the release hydrograph, event location, and natural or man-made obstacles play major roles in the run out distances and impact pressures.

Using an Integrated Surface Water - Groundwater Flow Model for Evaluating the Hydrologic Impacts of Historic and Potential Future Dry Periods on Simulated Water Budgets in the Santa Rosa Plain Watershed, Northern California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hevesi, J. A.; Woolfenden, L. R.; Nishikawa, T.

2014-12-01

Communities in the Santa Rosa Plain watershed (SRPW), Sonoma County, CA, USA are experiencing increasing demand for limited water resources. Streamflow in the SRPW is runoff dominated; however, groundwater also is an important resource in the basin. The watershed has an area of 262 mi2 that includes natural, agricultural, and urban land uses. To evaluate the hydrologic system, an integrated hydrologic model was developed using the U.S. Geological Survey coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model, GSFLOW. The model uses a daily time step and a grid-based discretization of the SRPW consisting of 16,741 10-acre cells for 8 model layers to simulate all water budget components of the surface and subsurface hydrologic system. Simulation results indicate significant impacts on streamflow and recharge in response to the below average precipitation during the dry periods. The recharge and streamflow distributions simulated for historic dry periods were compared to future dry periods projected from 4 GCM realizations (two different GCMs and two different CO2 forcing scenarios) for the 21st century, with the dry periods defined as 3 consecutive years of below average precipitation. For many of the projected dry periods, the decreases in recharge and streamflow were greater than for the historic dry periods due to a combination of lower precipitation and increases in simulated evapotranspiration for the warmer 21st century projected by the GCM realizations. The greatest impact on streamflow for both historic and projected future dry periods is the diminished baseflow from late spring to early fall, with an increase in the percentage of intermittent and dry stream reaches. The results indicate that the coupled model is a useful tool for water managers to better understand the potential effects of future dry periods on spatially and temporally distributed streamflow and recharge, as well as other components of the water budget.

Early assessment of proarrhythmic risk of drugs using the in vitro data and single-cell-based in silico models: proof of concept.

PubMed

Abbasi, Mitra; Small, Ben G; Patel, Nikunjkumar; Jamei, Masoud; Polak, Sebastian

2017-02-01

To determine the predictive performance of in silico models using drug-specific preclinical cardiac electrophysiology data to investigate drug-induced arrhythmia risk (e.g. Torsade de pointes (TdP)) in virtual human subjects. To assess drug proarrhythmic risk, we used a set of in vitro electrophysiological measurements describing ion channel inhibition triggered by the investigated drugs. The Cardiac Safety Simulator version 2.0 (CSS; Simcyp, Sheffield, UK) platform was used to simulate human left ventricular cardiac myocyte action potential models. This study shows the impact of drug concentration changes on particular ionic currents by using available experimental data. The simulation results display safety threshold according to drug concentration threshold and log (threshold concentration/ effective therapeutic plasma concentration (ETPC)). We reproduced the underlying biophysical characteristics of cardiac cells resulted in effects of drugs associated with cardiac arrhythmias (action potential duration (APD) and QT prolongation and TdP) which were observed in published 3D simulations, yet with much less computational burden.

Simulating Changes in Land-Atmosphere Interactions From Expanding Agriculture and Irrigation in India and the Potential Impacts on the Indian Monsoon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, E. M.; Beltran-Przekurat, A.; Niyogi, D.; Pielke, R. A.

2006-05-01

With over 57 million hectares under irrigation in 2002, India has the largest irrigated agricultural area on the planet. Between 80 and 90% of India's water use goes to support irrigated agriculture. The Indian monsoon belt is a home to a large part of the world's population and agriculture is the major land-use activity in the region. Previous results showed that annual vapor fluxes in India have increased by 17% (340 km3) over that which would be expected from a natural (non-agricultural) land cover. Two-thirds of this increase was attributed to irrigated agriculture. The largest increases in vapor and latent heat fluxes occurred where both cropland and irrigated lands were the predominant contemporary land cover classes (particularly northwest and north-central India). Our current study builds upon this work by evaluating possible changes in near-surface energy fluxes and regional atmospheric circulation patterns resulting from the expansion of irrigated agriculture on the Indian sub-continent using a regional atmospheric model RAMS. We investigate three separate land- use scenarios: Scenario 1, with a potential (pre-agricultural) land cover, Scenario 2: the potential land-cover overlain by cropland and Scenario 3: potential land-cover overlain by cropland and irrigated area. We will assess the impact of agricultural land-cover conversion and intensive irrigation on water and energy fluxes between the land and the atmosphere and how these flux changes may affect regional weather patterns. The simulation period covers July 16-20, 2002 which allow us to assess potential impacts of land-cover changes on the onset of the Indian Monsoon.

Estimation of Hepatitis C Disease Burden and Budget Impact of Treatment Using Health Economic Modeling.

PubMed

Chhatwal, Jagpreet; Chen, Qiushi; Aggarwal, Rakesh

2018-06-01

Oral direct-acting antiviral agents have revolutionized treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Nonetheless, barriers exist to elimination of HCV as a public health threat including low uptake of treatment, limited budget allocations for HCV treatment, and low awareness rates of HCV status among infected people. Mathematical modeling provides a systematic framework to analyze and compare potential solutions and elimination strategies by simulating the HCV epidemic under different conditions. Such models evaluate impact of interventions in advance of implementation. This article describes key components of developing an HCV burden model and illustrates its use by simulating the HCV epidemic in the United States. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Case Study: Influences of Uncertainties and Traffic Scenario Difficulties in a Human-in-the-Loop Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bienert, Nancy; Mercer, Joey; Homola, Jeffrey; Morey, Susan; Prevot, Thomas

2014-01-01

This paper presents a case study of how factors such as wind prediction errors and metering delays can influence controller performance and workload in Human-In-The-Loop simulations. Retired air traffic controllers worked two arrival sectors adjacent to the terminal area. The main tasks were to provide safe air traffic operations and deliver the aircraft to the metering fix within +/- 25 seconds of the scheduled arrival time with the help of provided decision support tools. Analyses explore the potential impact of metering delays and system uncertainties on controller workload and performance. The results suggest that trajectory prediction uncertainties impact safety performance, while metering fix accuracy and workload appear subject to the scenario difficulty.

Slow [Na+]i dynamics impacts arrhythmogenesis and spiral wave reentry in cardiac myocyte ionic model.

PubMed

Krogh-Madsen, Trine; Christini, David J

2017-09-01

Accumulation of intracellular Na + is gaining recognition as an important regulator of cardiac myocyte electrophysiology. The intracellular Na + concentration can be an important determinant of the cardiac action potential duration, can modulate the tissue-level conduction of excitation waves, and can alter vulnerability to arrhythmias. Mathematical models of cardiac electrophysiology often incorporate a dynamic intracellular Na + concentration, which changes much more slowly than the remaining variables. We investigated the dependence of several arrhythmogenesis-related factors on [Na + ] i in a mathematical model of the human atrial action potential. In cell simulations, we found that [Na + ] i accumulation stabilizes the action potential duration to variations in several conductances and that the slow dynamics of [Na + ] i impacts bifurcations to pro-arrhythmic afterdepolarizations, causing intermittency between different rhythms. In long-lasting tissue simulations of spiral wave reentry, [Na + ] i becomes spatially heterogeneous with a decreased area around the spiral wave rotation center. This heterogeneous region forms a functional anchor, resulting in diminished meandering of the spiral wave. Our findings suggest that slow, physiological, rate-dependent variations in [Na + ] i may play complex roles in cellular and tissue-level cardiac dynamics.

Slow [Na+]i dynamics impacts arrhythmogenesis and spiral wave reentry in cardiac myocyte ionic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krogh-Madsen, Trine; Christini, David J.

2017-09-01

Accumulation of intracellular Na+ is gaining recognition as an important regulator of cardiac myocyte electrophysiology. The intracellular Na+ concentration can be an important determinant of the cardiac action potential duration, can modulate the tissue-level conduction of excitation waves, and can alter vulnerability to arrhythmias. Mathematical models of cardiac electrophysiology often incorporate a dynamic intracellular Na+ concentration, which changes much more slowly than the remaining variables. We investigated the dependence of several arrhythmogenesis-related factors on [Na+]i in a mathematical model of the human atrial action potential. In cell simulations, we found that [Na+]i accumulation stabilizes the action potential duration to variations in several conductances and that the slow dynamics of [Na+]i impacts bifurcations to pro-arrhythmic afterdepolarizations, causing intermittency between different rhythms. In long-lasting tissue simulations of spiral wave reentry, [Na+]i becomes spatially heterogeneous with a decreased area around the spiral wave rotation center. This heterogeneous region forms a functional anchor, resulting in diminished meandering of the spiral wave. Our findings suggest that slow, physiological, rate-dependent variations in [Na+]i may play complex roles in cellular and tissue-level cardiac dynamics.

Analysis of the interactions between He + ions and transition metal surfaces using co-axial impact collision ion scattering spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, M.; Brown, M. G.; Draxler, M.; Fishwick, L.; Dowsett, M. G.; McConville, C. F.

2011-01-01

The interactions between low energy He + ions and a series of transition metal surfaces have been studied using co-axial impact collision ion scattering spectroscopy (CAICISS). Experimental data were collected from the Ni(110), Cu(100), Pd(111), Pt(111) and Au(111) surfaces using ion beams with primary energies between 1.5 keV and 4.0 keV. The shadow cone radii deduced from the experimental surface peak positions were found to closely match theoretical predictions. Data analysis was performed using both the FAN and Kalypso simulation codes, revealing a consistent requirement for a reduction of 0.252 in the screening length correction in the Molière approximation within the Thomas-Fermi (TFM) interaction potential. The adjustments of the screening length in the TFM potential, predicted by O'Connor, and the uncorrected Ziegler-Biersack-Littmark (ZBL) potential both yielded inaccurate results for all of the surfaces and incident energies studied. We also provide evidence that, despite their different computational methodologies, the FAN and Kalypso simulation codes generate similar results given identical input parameters for the analysis of 180° backscattering spectra.

Effect of hydrostatic pressure on gas solubilization in micelles.

PubMed

Meng, Bin; Ashbaugh, Henry S

2015-03-24

Molecular dynamics simulations of anionic sodium decylsulfate and nonionic pentaethylene glycol monodecyl ether micelles in water have been performed to examine the impact of hydrostatic pressure on argon solubilization as a function of pressure. The potential-of-mean force between the micelles and argon demonstrates that nonpolar gases are attracted to the interiors of both micelles. The affinity of argon for micelle interiors, however, decreases with increasing pressure as a result of the comparatively higher molar volume of argon inside assemblies. We evaluate solubility enhancement coefficients, which describe the drop in the solute chemical potential as a function of the micellized surfactant concentration, to quantify the impact of micellization on gas solubilization. While argon is similarly attracted to the hydrophobic cores of both micelles, the gas is more effectively sequestered within nonionic micelles compared with anionic micelles as a result of salting out by charged head groups and accompanying counterions. The solubility enhancement coefficients of both micelles decrease with increasing pressure, reflecting the changing forces observed in the potentials-of-mean force. An analytical liquid drop model is proposed to describe the pressure dependence of argon solubilization within micelles that captures the simulation solubility enhancement coefficients after fitting an effective micelle radius for each surfactant.

Hardware-in-the-Loop Co-simulation of Distribution Grid for Demand Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rotger-Griful, Sergi; Chatzivasileiadis, Spyros; Jacobsen, Rune H.

2016-06-20

In modern power systems, co-simulation is proposed as an enabler for analyzing the interactions between disparate systems. This paper introduces the co-simulation platform Virtual Grid Integration Laboratory (VirGIL) including Hardware-in-the-Loop testing, and demonstrates its potential to assess demand response strategies. VirGIL is based on a modular architecture using the Functional Mock-up Interface industrial standard to integrate new simulators. VirGIL combines state-of-the-art simulators in power systems, communications, buildings, and control. In this work, VirGIL is extended with a Hardware-in-the-Loop component to control the ventilation system of a real 12-story building in Denmark. VirGIL capabilities are illustrated in three scenarios: load following,more » primary reserves and load following aggregation. Experimental results show that the system can track one minute changing signals and it can provide primary reserves for up-regulation. Furthermore, the potential of aggregating several ventilation systems is evaluated considering the impact at distribution grid level and the communications protocol effect.« less

Evaluation of scale-aware subgrid mesoscale eddy models in a global eddy-rich model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearson, Brodie; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Bachman, Scott; Bryan, Frank

2017-07-01

Two parameterizations for horizontal mixing of momentum and tracers by subgrid mesoscale eddies are implemented in a high-resolution global ocean model. These parameterizations follow on the techniques of large eddy simulation (LES). The theory underlying one parameterization (2D Leith due to Leith, 1996) is that of enstrophy cascades in two-dimensional turbulence, while the other (QG Leith) is designed for potential enstrophy cascades in quasi-geostrophic turbulence. Simulations using each of these parameterizations are compared with a control simulation using standard biharmonic horizontal mixing.Simulations using the 2D Leith and QG Leith parameterizations are more realistic than those using biharmonic mixing. In particular, the 2D Leith and QG Leith simulations have more energy in resolved mesoscale eddies, have a spectral slope more consistent with turbulence theory (an inertial enstrophy or potential enstrophy cascade), have bottom drag and vertical viscosity as the primary sinks of energy instead of lateral friction, and have isoneutral parameterized mesoscale tracer transport. The parameterization choice also affects mass transports, but the impact varies regionally in magnitude and sign.

An Introduction to Observing System Simulation Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prive, Nikki C.

2017-01-01

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are used to estimate the potential impact of proposed new instruments and data on numerical weather prediction. OSSEs can also be used to help design new observing platforms and to investigate the behavior of data assimilation systems. A basic overview of how to design and perform an OSSE will be given, as well as best practices and pitfalls. Some examples using the OSSE framework developed at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office will be shown.

FEMA Asteroid Impact Tabletop Exercise Simulations

DOE PAGES

Boslough, Mark; Jennings, Barbara; Carvey, Brad; ...

2015-05-19

We describe the computational simulations and damage assessments that we provided in support of a tabletop exercise (TTX) at the request of NASA's Near-Earth Objects Program Office. The overall purpose of the exercise was to assess leadership reactions, information requirements, and emergency management responses to a hypothetical asteroid impact with Earth. The scripted exercise consisted of discovery, tracking, and characterization of a hypothetical asteroid; inclusive of mission planning, mitigation, response, impact to population, infrastructure and GDP, and explicit quantification of uncertainty. Participants at the meeting included representatives of NASA, Department of Defense, Department of State, Department of Homeland Security/Federal Emergencymore » Management Agency (FEMA), and the White House. The exercise took place at FEMA headquarters. Sandia's role was to assist the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in developing the impact scenario, to predict the physical effects of the impact, and to forecast the infrastructure and economic losses. We ran simulations using Sandia's CTH hydrocode to estimate physical effects on the ground, and to produce contour maps indicating damage assessments that could be used as input for the infrastructure and economic models. We used the FASTMap tool to provide estimates of infrastructure damage over the affected area, and the REAcct tool to estimate the potential economic severity expressed as changes to GDP (by nation, region, or sector) due to damage and short-term business interruptions.« less

FEMA Asteroid Impact Tabletop Exercise Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark; Jennings, Barbara; Carvey, Brad

We describe the computational simulations and damage assessments that we provided in support of a tabletop exercise (TTX) at the request of NASA's Near-Earth Objects Program Office. The overall purpose of the exercise was to assess leadership reactions, information requirements, and emergency management responses to a hypothetical asteroid impact with Earth. The scripted exercise consisted of discovery, tracking, and characterization of a hypothetical asteroid; inclusive of mission planning, mitigation, response, impact to population, infrastructure and GDP, and explicit quantification of uncertainty. Participants at the meeting included representatives of NASA, Department of Defense, Department of State, Department of Homeland Security/Federal Emergencymore » Management Agency (FEMA), and the White House. The exercise took place at FEMA headquarters. Sandia's role was to assist the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in developing the impact scenario, to predict the physical effects of the impact, and to forecast the infrastructure and economic losses. We ran simulations using Sandia's CTH hydrocode to estimate physical effects on the ground, and to produce contour maps indicating damage assessments that could be used as input for the infrastructure and economic models. We used the FASTMap tool to provide estimates of infrastructure damage over the affected area, and the REAcct tool to estimate the potential economic severity expressed as changes to GDP (by nation, region, or sector) due to damage and short-term business interruptions.« less

Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.

2010-01-01

While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of themore » U.S. economy.« less

Fractal Landscape Algorithms for Environmental Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, H.; Moran, S.

2014-12-01

Natural science and geographical research are now able to take advantage of environmental simulations that more accurately test experimental hypotheses, resulting in deeper understanding. Experiments affected by the natural environment can benefit from 3D landscape simulations capable of simulating a variety of terrains and environmental phenomena. Such simulations can employ random terrain generation algorithms that dynamically simulate environments to test specific models against a variety of factors. Through the use of noise functions such as Perlin noise, Simplex noise, and diamond square algorithms, computers can generate simulations that model a variety of landscapes and ecosystems. This study shows how these algorithms work together to create realistic landscapes. By seeding values into the diamond square algorithm, one can control the shape of landscape. Perlin noise and Simplex noise are also used to simulate moisture and temperature. The smooth gradient created by coherent noise allows more realistic landscapes to be simulated. Terrain generation algorithms can be used in environmental studies and physics simulations. Potential studies that would benefit from simulations include the geophysical impact of flash floods or drought on a particular region and regional impacts on low lying area due to global warming and rising sea levels. Furthermore, terrain generation algorithms also serve as aesthetic tools to display landscapes (Google Earth), and simulate planetary landscapes. Hence, it can be used as a tool to assist science education. Algorithms used to generate these natural phenomena provide scientists a different approach in analyzing our world. The random algorithms used in terrain generation not only contribute to the generating the terrains themselves, but are also capable of simulating weather patterns.

Effects of climate and land cover on hydrology in the southeastern U.S.: Potential impacts on watershed planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland; Regan, R. Steve; Markstrom, Steven

2015-01-01

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface-depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.

Approach for assessing coastal vulnerability to oil spills for prevention and readiness using GIS and the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, J. R.; Grubesic, T. H.; Sim, L.

Increasing interest in offshore hydrocarbon exploration has pushed the operational fronts associated with exploration efforts further offshore into deeper waters and more uncertain subsurface settings. This has become particularly common in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. In this study we develop a spatial vulnerability approach and example assessment to support future spill prevention and improve future response readiness. This effort, which is part of a larger integrated assessment modeling spill prevention effort, incorporated economic and environmental data, and utilized a novel new oil spill simulation model from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, the Blowout and Spillmore » Occurrence Model (BLOSOM). Specifically, this study demonstrated a novel approach to evaluate potential impacts of hypothetical spill simulations at varying depths and locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The simulations are analyzed to assess spatial and temporal trends associated with the oil spill. The approach itself demonstrates how these data, tools and techniques can be used to evaluate potential spatial vulnerability of Gulf communities for various spill scenarios. Results of the hypothetical scenarios evaluated in this study suggest that under conditions like those simulated, a strong westward push by ocean currents and tides may increase the impacts of deep water spills along the Texas coastline, amplifying the vulnerability of communities on the local barrier islands. Ultimately, this approach can be used further to assess a range of conditions and scenarios to better understand potential risks and improve informed decision making for operators, responders, and stakeholders to support spill prevention as well as response readiness.« less

Approach for assessing coastal vulnerability to oil spills for prevention and readiness using GIS and the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model

DOE PAGES

Nelson, J. R.; Grubesic, T. H.; Sim, L.; ...

2015-08-01

Increasing interest in offshore hydrocarbon exploration has pushed the operational fronts associated with exploration efforts further offshore into deeper waters and more uncertain subsurface settings. This has become particularly common in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. In this study we develop a spatial vulnerability approach and example assessment to support future spill prevention and improve future response readiness. This effort, which is part of a larger integrated assessment modeling spill prevention effort, incorporated economic and environmental data, and utilized a novel new oil spill simulation model from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, the Blowout and Spillmore » Occurrence Model (BLOSOM). Specifically, this study demonstrated a novel approach to evaluate potential impacts of hypothetical spill simulations at varying depths and locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The simulations are analyzed to assess spatial and temporal trends associated with the oil spill. The approach itself demonstrates how these data, tools and techniques can be used to evaluate potential spatial vulnerability of Gulf communities for various spill scenarios. Results of the hypothetical scenarios evaluated in this study suggest that under conditions like those simulated, a strong westward push by ocean currents and tides may increase the impacts of deep water spills along the Texas coastline, amplifying the vulnerability of communities on the local barrier islands. Ultimately, this approach can be used further to assess a range of conditions and scenarios to better understand potential risks and improve informed decision making for operators, responders, and stakeholders to support spill prevention as well as response readiness.« less

A synthetic method for atmospheric diffusion simulation and environmental impact assessment of accidental pollution in the chemical industry in a WEBGIS context.

PubMed

Ni, Haochen; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Cheng, Liang

2014-09-05

The chemical industry poses a potential security risk to factory personnel and neighboring residents. In order to mitigate prospective damage, a synthetic method must be developed for an emergency response. With the development of environmental numeric simulation models, model integration methods, and modern information technology, many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been established. However, existing systems still have limitations, in terms of synthetic simulation and network interoperation. In order to resolve these limitations, the matured simulation model for chemical accidents was integrated into the WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The complete workflow of the emergency response, including raw data (meteorology information, and accident information) management, numeric simulation of different kinds of accidents, environmental impact assessments, and representation of the simulation results were achieved. This allowed comprehensive and real-time simulation of acute accidents in the chemical industry. The main contribution of this paper is that an organizational mechanism of the model set, based on the accident type and pollutant substance; a scheduling mechanism for the parallel processing of multi-accident-type, multi-accident-substance, and multi-simulation-model; and finally a presentation method for scalar and vector data on the web browser on the integration of a WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The outcomes demonstrated that this method could provide effective support for deciding emergency responses of acute chemical accidents.

A Synthetic Method for Atmospheric Diffusion Simulation and Environmental Impact Assessment of Accidental Pollution in the Chemical Industry in a WEBGIS Context

PubMed Central

Ni, Haochen; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Cheng, Liang

2014-01-01

The chemical industry poses a potential security risk to factory personnel and neighboring residents. In order to mitigate prospective damage, a synthetic method must be developed for an emergency response. With the development of environmental numeric simulation models, model integration methods, and modern information technology, many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been established. However, existing systems still have limitations, in terms of synthetic simulation and network interoperation. In order to resolve these limitations, the matured simulation model for chemical accidents was integrated into the WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The complete workflow of the emergency response, including raw data (meteorology information, and accident information) management, numeric simulation of different kinds of accidents, environmental impact assessments, and representation of the simulation results were achieved. This allowed comprehensive and real-time simulation of acute accidents in the chemical industry. The main contribution of this paper is that an organizational mechanism of the model set, based on the accident type and pollutant substance; a scheduling mechanism for the parallel processing of multi-accident-type, multi-accident-substance, and multi-simulation-model; and finally a presentation method for scalar and vector data on the web browser on the integration of a WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The outcomes demonstrated that this method could provide effective support for deciding emergency responses of acute chemical accidents. PMID:25198686

Training Graduate and Undergraduate Students in Simulation and Risk Assessment for Carbon Sequestration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCray, John

Capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) and injecting it into deep underground formations for storage (carbon capture and underground storage, or CCUS) is one way of reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Gas or aqueous-phase leakage may occur due to transport via faults and fractures, through faulty well bores, or through leaky confining materials. Contaminants of concern include aqueous salts and dissolved solids, gaseous or aqueous-phase organic contaminants, and acidic gas or aqueous-phase fluids that can liberate metals from aquifer minerals. Understanding the mechanisms and parameters that can contribute to leakage of the CO2 and the ultimate impact on shallow water aquifers that overliemore » injection formations is an important step in evaluating the efficacy and risks associated with long-term CO2 storage. Three students were supported on the grant Training Graduate and Undergraduate Students in Simulation and Risk Assessment for Carbon Sequestration. These three students each examined a different aspect of simulation and risk assessment related to carbon dioxide sequestration and the potential impacts of CO2 leakage. Two performed numerical simulation studies, one to assess leakage rates as a function of fault and deep reservoir parameters and one to develop a method for quantitative risk assessment in the event of a CO2 leak and subsequent changes in groundwater chemistry. A third student performed an experimental evaluation of the potential for metal release from sandstone aquifers under simulated leakage conditions. This study has resulted in two student first-authored published papers {Siirila, 2012 #560}{Kirsch, 2014 #770} and one currently in preparation {Menke, In prep. #809}.« less

Impact of crisis resource management simulation-based training for interprofessional and interdisciplinary teams: A systematic review.

PubMed

Fung, Lillia; Boet, Sylvain; Bould, M Dylan; Qosa, Haytham; Perrier, Laure; Tricco, Andrea; Tavares, Walter; Reeves, Scott

2015-01-01

Crisis resource management (CRM) abilities are important for different healthcare providers to effectively manage critical clinical events. This study aims to review the effectiveness of simulation-based CRM training for interprofessional and interdisciplinary teams compared to other instructional methods (e.g., didactics). Interprofessional teams are composed of several professions (e.g., nurse, physician, midwife) while interdisciplinary teams are composed of several disciplines from the same profession (e.g., cardiologist, anaesthesiologist, orthopaedist). Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and ERIC were searched using terms related to CRM, crisis management, crew resource management, teamwork, and simulation. Trials comparing simulation-based CRM team training versus any other methods of education were included. The educational interventions involved interprofessional or interdisciplinary healthcare teams. The initial search identified 7456 publications; 12 studies were included. Simulation-based CRM team training was associated with significant improvements in CRM skill acquisition in all but two studies when compared to didactic case-based CRM training or simulation without CRM training. Of the 12 included studies, one showed significant improvements in team behaviours in the workplace, while two studies demonstrated sustained reductions in adverse patient outcomes after a single simulation-based CRM team intervention. In conclusion, CRM simulation-based training for interprofessional and interdisciplinary teams show promise in teaching CRM in the simulator when compared to didactic case-based CRM education or simulation without CRM teaching. More research, however, is required to demonstrate transfer of learning to workplaces and potential impact on patient outcomes.

Environmental impacts of the release of a transuranic actinide, americium-241, from a contaminated facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Want, J.; Merry-Libby, P.

1985-10-29

Americium-241 is widely used as a radiation source, but it also has some potential risk if taken into the body because of its high dose conversion factor. Although the radiotoxicity of americium-241 is small compared to other transuranic actinides, its effects on the reproductive system and on development of the placenta are more damaging than the effects of plutonium-239. In Ohio, a gemologist's laboratory was contaminated with americium-241. Prior to decontamination of the laboratory, potential radiological impacts to the surrounding environment were assessed. A hypothetical fire accident resulting in a unit release (1 curie) was assumed. Potential radiological impacts weremore » simulated using an atmospheric dispersion and dosimetry model with local meteorological data, population census data, and detailed information regarding the neighborhood. The results indicate that there could have been a significant impact on nearby residents from americium-241 via atmospheric dispersion if a major catastrophic release had occurred prior to contamination and decommissioning of the laboratory. 14 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.« less

LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

2013-09-01

Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously developed, updated and used in different research projects and as a learning and knowledge-sharing tool for students. The main objective of LandCaRe DSS is to provide information on the complex long-term impacts of climate change and on potential management options for adaptation by answering "what-if" type questions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Streamflow response to future land-cover change at a headwaters catchment spanning the alpine-subalpine transition on the Colorado Front Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnhart, T. B.; Vukomanovic, J.; Bourgeron, P.; Molotch, N. P.

2017-12-01

Land-cover change at the alpine-subalpine interface has the potential to change the water balance of mountainous, snow-dominated catchments due to the influence of vegetation on blowing snow, effective precipitation, evapotranspiration, and other processes. Understanding how land-cover change will impact water resources in snow-dominated regions is of critical importance as these locations produce a disproportionate amount of runoff relative to their land area. We coupled the LANdscape DIsturbance and Succession (LANDIS-II) model with a spatially explicit, physics-based, watershed process model, the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys), to simulate land-cover change and its impact on the water balance in a 6.6 km­2 headwater catchment that spans the alpine-subalpine transition on the Colorado Front Range. We simulated two potential futures of air temperature warming (+4 °C/century) to 2100: a) increased precipitation (+15%, MP) and b) decreased precipitation (-15%, LP). As the LANDIS-II model simulates forest succession in a stochastic manner, we use three LANDIS-II model runs each for the MP and LP future forcing conditions. For both MP and LP, the RHESSys forcing data set was updated to reflect the changes in precipitation and temperature used to generate the land-cover futures. Forest cover in the catchment increased from 72% in 2000 to 84% and 83% in 2050 and to 95% and 92% in 2100 for MP and LP, respectively. Somewhat surprisingly, this increase in forest cover led to mean increases in streamflow production of 9% for MP and 3% for LP in 2050. In 2100, mean streamflow production increased by 15% and 6% for the MP and LP scenarios, respectively. This is likely due to increases in effective precipitation as the catchment forested and blowing snow decreased. Indeed, catchment effective precipitation increased from 94% in 2000 to 97% and 99% in 2050 and 2100, respectively, for both MP and LP conditions. This result counters previous work as runoff production increased with forested area, highlighting the need to better understand the impacts of forest expansion on blowing snow and effective precipitation. Identifying the hydrologic response of mountainous areas to climate warming induced land-cover change is of critical importance due to the potential water resources impacts in downstream regions.

Response of Groundwater Recharge to Potential Future Climate Change in the Grand River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jyrkama, M. I.; Sykes, J. F.

2004-05-01

The Grand River watershed is situated in south-western Ontario, draining an area of nearly 7000 square kilometres into Lake Erie. Approximately eighty percent of the population in the watershed derive their drinking water from groundwater sources. Quantifying the recharge input to the groundwater system and the impact of climate variability due to climate change is, therefore, essential for ensuring the quantity and sustainability of the watershed's drinking water resources in the future. The primary goal of this study is to investigate the impact of potential future climate changes on groundwater recharge in the Grand River watershed. The physically based hydrologic model HELP3 is used in conjunction with GIS to simulate the past conditions and future changes in evapotranspiration, potential surface runoff, and groundwater recharge rates as a result of projected changes in the regions climate. The climate change projections are based on the general predictions reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Forty years of daily historical weather data are used as the reference condition. The impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle over a forty year study period is modelled by perturbing the HELP3 model input parameters using predicted future changes in precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. The changes in land use and vegetation cover over time were not considered in the study. The results of the study indicate that the overall simulated rate of groundwater recharge is predicted to increase in the watershed as a result of the projected future climate change. Warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent and duration of ground frost and shift the springmelt from spring toward winter months, allowing more water to infiltrate into the ground. This results in decreased surface runoff, higher infiltration, and subsequently increased groundwater recharge. The predicted higher intensity and frequency of future precipitation will not only contribute significantly to increased surface runoff, but also results in higher evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge rates due to increased amounts of available water. Changes in the incoming solar radiation have a minimal impact on the simulated hydrologic processes. The overall simulated average annual recharge in the watershed is predicted to increase by approximately 100 mm/year over the next forty years from 189 mm/year to 289 mm/year.

Linking Global and Regional Models to Simulate U.S. Air Quality in the Year 2050

EPA Science Inventory

The potential impact of global climate change on future air quality in the United States is investigated with global and regional-scale models. Regional climate model scenarios are developed by dynamically downscaling the outputs from a global chemistry and climate model and are...

Applying WEPP technologies to western alkaline surface coal mines

Treesearch

J. Q. Wu; S. Dun; H. Rhee; X. Liu; W. J. Elliot; T. Golnar; J. R. Frankenberger; D. C. Flanagan; P. W. Conrad; R. L. McNearny

2011-01-01

One aspect of planning surface mining operations, regulated by the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES), is estimating potential environmental impacts during mining operations and the reclamation period that follows. Practical computer simulation tools are effective for evaluating site-specific sediment control and reclamation plans for the NPDES....

ELEVATED CO2 AND TEMPERATURE ALTER THE RESPONSE OF PINUS PONDEROSA TO OZONE: A SIMULATION ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

Forests regulate numerous biogeochemical cycles, storing and cycling large quantities of carbon, water, and nutrients, however, there is concern how climate change, elevated CO2 and tropospheric O3 will affect these processes. We investigated the potential impact of O3 in combina...

Effects of simulated acid rain on the allelopathic potential of invasive weed Wedelia trilobata

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Acid rain continues to pose a major threat to natural ecosystems in rapidly-developing industrialized regions such as southern China. Despite the significant environmental impact of this phenomenon, relatively little is known concerning its effects on important aspects of ecosystem dynamics such as ...

AERIS - applications for the environment : real-time information synthesis : low emissions zone (LEZ) operational scenario modeling report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-01-01

This report describes the analysis and modeling effort that was conducted to simulate the potential impacts of a Low Emissions Zone (LEZ) strategy. LEZs are designated areas within a metropolitan region where special measures are implemented with a v...

How will the changing industrial forest landscape affect forest sustainability?

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Craig Loehle

2008-01-01

Large-scale divestiture of commercial forestlands is occurring in the United States. Furthermore, increasing demand for cellulose for bioenergy may modify forest management practices widely enough to impact the spatial characteristics of forested landscapes. We used the HARVEST timber harvest simulator to investigate the potential consequences of divestiture and...

Climate impacts on palm oil yields in the Nigerian Niger Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okoro, Stanley U.; Schickhoff, Udo; Boehner, Juergen; Schneider, Uwe A.; Huth, Neil

2016-04-01

Palm oil production has increased in recent decades and is estimated to increase further. The optimal role of palm oil production, however, is controversial because of resource conflicts with alternative land uses. Local conditions and climate change affect resource competition and the desirability of palm oil production. Based on this, crop yield simulations using different climate model output under different climate scenarios could be important tool in addressing the problem of uncertainty quantification among different climate model outputs. Previous studies on this region have focused mostly on single experimental fields, not considering variations in Agro-Ecological Zones, climatic conditions, varieties and management practices and, in most cases not extending to various IPCC climate scenarios and were mostly based on single climate model output. Furthermore, the uncertainty quantification of the climate- impact model has rarely been investigated on this region. To this end we use the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to simulate the regional climate impact on oil palm yield over the Nigerian Niger Delta. We also examine whether the use of crop yield model output ensemble reduces the uncertainty rather than the use of climate model output ensemble. The results could serve as a baseline for policy makers in this region in understanding the interaction between potentials of energy crop production of the region as well as its food security and other negative feedbacks that could be associated with bioenergy from oil palm. Keywords: Climate Change, Climate impacts, Land use and Crop yields.

Development of a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the shallow aquifer system of Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Gesch, Dean B.; Carlson, Carl S.

2013-01-01

A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was developed for Assateague Island in eastern Maryland and Virginia to simulate both groundwater flow and solute (salt) transport to evaluate the groundwater system response to sea-level rise. The model was constructed using geologic and spatial information to represent the island geometry, boundaries, and physical properties and was calibrated using an inverse modeling parameter-estimation technique. An initial transient solute-transport simulation was used to establish the freshwater-saltwater boundary for a final calibrated steady-state model of groundwater flow. This model was developed as part of an ongoing investigation by the U.S. Geological Survey Climate and Land Use Change Research and Development Program to improve capabilities for predicting potential climate-change effects and provide the necessary tools for adaptation and mitigation of potentially adverse impacts.

21st Century Trends in the Potential for Ozone Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2009-05-01

We find robust trends in the area where Antarctic stratospheric temperatures are below the threshold for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. In late winter (September-October-November), cold area trends are consistent with the respective trends in equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), i.e. negative cold area trends in 'realistic future' simulations where EESC decreases and the ozone layer recovers. In the early winter (April through June), regardless of EESC scenario, we find an increasing cold area trend in all simulations; multiple linear regression analysis shows that this early winter cooling trend is associated with the predicted increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. We compare the seasonality of the potential for Antarctic ozone depletion in two versions of the GEOS CCM and assess the impact of the above-mentioned cold area trends on polar stratospheric chemistry.

Assessing influences on social vulnerability to wildfire using surveys, spatial data and wildfire simulations.

PubMed

Paveglio, Travis B; Edgeley, Catrin M; Stasiewicz, Amanda M

2018-05-01

A growing body of research focuses on identifying patterns among human populations most at risk from hazards such as wildfire and the factors that help explain performance of mitigations that can help reduce that risk. Emerging policy surrounding wildfire management emphasizes the need to better understand such social vulnerability-or human populations' potential exposure to and sensitivity from wildfire-related impacts, including their ability to reduce negative impacts from the hazard. Studies of social vulnerability to wildfire often pair secondary demographic data with a variety of vegetation and wildfire simulation models to map potential risk. However, many of the assumptions made by those researchers about the demographic, spatial or perceptual factors that influence social vulnerability to wildfire have not been fully evaluated or tested against objective measures of potential wildfire risk. The research presented here utilizes self-reported surveys, GIS data, and wildfire simulations to test the relationships between select perceptual, demographic, and property characteristics of property owners against empirically simulated metrics for potential wildfire related damages or exposure. We also evaluate how those characteristics relate to property owners' performance of mitigations or support for fire management. Our results suggest that parcel characteristics provide the most significant explanation of variability in wildfire exposure, sensitivity and overall wildfire risk, while the positive relationship between income or property values and components of social vulnerability stands in contrast to typical assumptions from existing literature. Respondents' views about agency or government management helped explain a significant amount of variance in wildfire sensitivity, while the importance of wildfire risk in selecting a residence was an important influence on mitigation action. We use these and other results from our effort to discuss updated considerations for determining social vulnerability to wildfire and articulate alternative means to collect such information. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of the Indian part of the summer MJO on West Africa using nudged climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohino, Elsa; Janicot, Serge; Douville, Hervé; Li, Laurent Z. X.

2012-06-01

Observational evidence suggests a link between the summer Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and anomalous convection over West Africa. This link is further studied with the help of the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model. The approach is based on nudging the model towards the reanalysis in the Asian monsoon region. The simulation successfully captures the convection associated with the summer MJO in the nudging region. Outside this region the model is free to evolve. Over West Africa it simulates convection anomalies that are similar in magnitude, structure, and timing to the observed ones. In accordance with the observations, the simulation shows that 15-20 days after the maximum increase (decrease) of convection in the Indian Ocean there is a significant reduction (increase) in West African convection. The simulation strongly suggests that in addition to the eastward-moving MJO signal, the westward propagation of a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave is needed to explain the overall impact of the MJO on convection over West Africa. These results highlight the use of MJO events to potentially predict regional-scale anomalous convection and rainfall spells over West Africa with a time lag of approximately 15-20 days.

Evaluation of equivalent defect heat generation in carbon epoxy composite under powerful ultrasonic stimulation by using infrared thermography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derusova, D. A.; Vavilov, V. P.; Pawar, S. S.

2015-04-01

Low velocity impact is a frequently observed event during the operation of an aircraft composite structure. This type of damage is aptly called as “blind-side impact damage” as it is barely visible as a dent on the impacted surface, but may produce extended delaminations closer to the rear surface. One-sided thermal nondestructive testing is considered as a promising technique for detecting impact damage but because of diffusive nature of optical thermal signals there is drop in detectability of deeper subsurface defects. Ultrasonic Infrared thermography is a potentially attractive nondestructive evaluation technique used to detect the defects through observation of vibration-induced heat generation. Evaluation of the energy released by such defects is a challenging task. In this study, the thin delaminations caused by impact damage in composites and which are subjected to ultrasonic excitation are considered as local heat sources. The actual impact damage in a carbon epoxy composite which was detected by applying a magnetostrictive ultrasonic device is then modeled as a pyramid-like defect with a set of delaminations acting as an air-filled heat sources. The temperature rise expected on the surface of the specimen was achieved by varying energy contribution from each delamination through trial and error. Finally, by comparing the experimental temperature elevations in defective area with the results of temperature simulations, we estimated the energy generated by each defect and defect power of impact damage as a whole. The results show good correlation between simulations and measurements, thus validating the simulation approach.

Simulation in the Executive Suite: Lessons Learned for Building Patient Safety Leadership.

PubMed

Rosen, Michael A; Goeschel, Christine A; Che, Xin-Xuan; Fawole, Joseph Oluyinka; Rees, Dianne; Curran, Rosemary; Gelinas, Lillee; Martin, Jessica N; Kosel, Keith C; Pronovost, Peter J; Weaver, Sallie J

2015-12-01

Simulation is a powerful learning tool for building individual and team competencies of frontline health care providers with demonstrable impact on performance. This article examines the impact of simulation in building strategic leadership competencies for patient safety and quality among executive leaders in health care organizations. We designed, implemented, and evaluated a simulation as part of a larger safety leadership network meeting for executive leaders. This simulation targeted knowledge competencies of governance priority, culture of continuous improvement, and internal transparency and feedback. Eight teams of leaders in health care organizations-a total of 55 participants-participated in a 4-hour session. Each team performed collectively as a new chief executive officer (CEO) tasked with a goal of rescuing a hospital with a failing safety record. Teams worked on a modifiable simulation board reflecting the current dysfunctional organizational structure of the simulated hospital. They assessed and redesigned accountability structures based on information acquired in encounter sessions with confederates playing the role of internal staff and external consultants. Data were analyzed, and results are presented as qualitative themes arising from the simulation exercise, participant reaction data, and performance during the simulation. Key findings include high degrees of variability in solutions developed for the dysfunctional hospital system and generally positive learner reactions to the simulation experience. This study illustrates the potential value of simulation as a mechanism for learning and strategy development for executive leaders grappling with patient safety issues. Future research should explore the cognitive or functional fidelity of organizational simulations and the use of custom scenarios for strategic planning.

PRONTO training for obstetric and neonatal emergencies in Mexico.

PubMed

Walker, Dilys M; Cohen, Susanna R; Estrada, Fatima; Monterroso, Marcia E; Jenny, Alisa; Fritz, Jimena; Fahey, Jenifer O

2012-02-01

To evaluate the acceptability, feasibility, rating, and potential impact of PRONTO, a low-tech and high-fidelity simulation-based training for obstetric and neonatal emergencies and teamwork using the PartoPants low-cost birth simulator. A pilot project was conducted from September 21, 2009, to April 9, 2010, to train interprofessional teams from 5 community hospitals in the states of Mexico and Chiapas. Module I (teamwork, neonatal resuscitation, and obstetric hemorrhage) was followed 3 months later by module II (dystocia and pre-eclampsia/eclampsia) and an evaluation. Four elements were assessed: acceptability; feasibility and rating; institutional goal achievement; teamwork improvement; and knowledge and self-efficacy. The program was rated highly both by trainees and by non-trainees who completed a survey and interview. Hospital goals identified by participants in the module I strategic-planning sessions were achieved for 65% of goals in 3 months. Teamwork, knowledge, and self-efficacy scores improved. PRONTO brings simulation training to low-resource settings and can empower interprofessional teams to respond more effectively within their institutional limitations to emergencies involving women and newborns. Further study is warranted to evaluate the potential impact of the program on obstetric and neonatal outcome. Copyright © 2011 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular dynamics simulations of shock waves in hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene melts: Mechanical and structural responses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fröhlich, Markus G., E-mail: FroehlichM@missouri.edu, E-mail: ThompsonDon@missouri.edu; Sewell, Thomas D., E-mail: SewellT@missouri.edu; Thompson, Donald L., E-mail: FroehlichM@missouri.edu, E-mail: ThompsonDon@missouri.edu

2014-01-14

The mechanical and structural responses of hydroxyl-terminated cis-1,4-polybutadiene melts to shock waves were investigated by means of all-atom non-reactive molecular dynamics simulations. The simulations were performed using the OPLS-AA force field but with the standard 12-6 Lennard-Jones potential replaced by the Buckingham exponential-6 potential to better represent the interactions at high compression. Monodisperse systems containing 64, 128, and 256 backbone carbon atoms were studied. Supported shock waves were generated by impacting the samples onto stationary pistons at impact velocities of 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 km s{sup −1}, yielding shock pressures between approximately 2.8 GPa and 12.5 GPa. Single-molecule structuralmore » properties (squared radii of gyration, asphericity parameters, and orientational order parameters) and mechanical properties (density, shock pressure, shock temperature, and shear stress) were analyzed using a geometric binning scheme to obtain spatio-temporal resolution in the reference frame centered on the shock front. Our results indicate that while shear stress behind the shock front is relieved on a ∼0.5 ps time scale, a shock-induced transition to a glass-like state occurs with a concomitant increase of structural relaxation times by several orders of magnitude.« less

The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

DOE PAGES

Winterhalter, Wade E.

2011-09-01

Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I foundmore » that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.« less

Influence of spatiotemporally distributed irradiance data input on temperature evolution in parabolic trough solar field simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bubolz, K.; Schenk, H.; Hirsch, T.

2016-05-01

Concentrating solar field operation is affected by shadowing through cloud movement. For line focusing systems the impact of varying irradiance has been studied before by several authors with simulations of relevant thermodynamics assuming spatially homogeneous irradiance or using artificial test signals. While today's simulation capabilities allow more and more a higher spatiotemporal resolution of plant processes there are only few studies on influence of spatially distributed irradiance due to lack of available data. Based on recent work on generating real irradiance maps with high spatial resolution this paper demonstrates their influence on solar field thermodynamics. For a case study an irradiance time series is chosen. One solar field section with several loops and collecting header is modeled for simulation purpose of parabolic trough collectors and oil as heat transfer medium. Assuming homogeneous mass flow distribution among all loops we observe spatially varying temperature characteristics. They are analysed without and with mass flow control and their impact on solar field control design is discussed. Finally, the potential of distributed irradiance data is outlined.

Parameterization of Keeling's network generation algorithm.

PubMed

Badham, Jennifer; Abbass, Hussein; Stocker, Rob

2008-09-01

Simulation is increasingly being used to examine epidemic behaviour and assess potential management options. The utility of the simulations rely on the ability to replicate those aspects of the social structure that are relevant to epidemic transmission. One approach is to generate networks with desired social properties. Recent research by Keeling and his colleagues has generated simulated networks with a range of properties, and examined the impact of these properties on epidemic processes occurring over the network. However, published work has included only limited analysis of the algorithm itself and the way in which the network properties are related to the algorithm parameters. This paper identifies some relationships between the algorithm parameters and selected network properties (mean degree, degree variation, clustering coefficient and assortativity). Our approach enables users of the algorithm to efficiently generate a network with given properties, thereby allowing realistic social networks to be used as the basis of epidemic simulations. Alternatively, the algorithm could be used to generate social networks with a range of property values, enabling analysis of the impact of these properties on epidemic behaviour.

Climate Change Impact on Air Quality in High Resolution Simulation for Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halenka, T.; Huszar, P.; Belda, M.

2009-04-01

Recently the effects of climate change on air-quality and vice-versa are studied quite extensively. In fact, even at regional and local scale especially the impact of climate change on the atmospheric composition and photochemical smog formation conditions can be significant when expecting e.g. more frequent appearance of heat waves etc. For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the magnitude of such effects and to study the potential of climate forcing due to atmospheric chemistry/aerosols on regional scale, chemistry-transport model was coupled to RegCM on the Department of Meteorology and Environmental Protection, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University in Prague, for the simulations in framework of the EC FP6 Project CECILIA. Off-line one way coupling enables the simulation of distribution of pollutants over 1991-2001 in very high resolution of 10 km is compared to the EMEP observations for the area of Central Europe. Simulations driven by climate change boundary conditions for time slices 1991-2000, 2041-2050 and 2091-2100 are presented to show the effect of climate change on the air quality in the region.

Process simulation of modified dry grind ethanol plant with recycle of pretreated and enzymatically hydrolyzed distillers' grains.

PubMed

Kim, Youngmi; Mosier, Nathan; Ladisch, Michael R

2008-08-01

Distillers' grains (DG), a co-product of a dry grind ethanol process, is an excellent source of supplemental proteins in livestock feed. Studies have shown that, due to its high polymeric sugar contents and ease of hydrolysis, the distillers' grains have potential as an additional source of fermentable sugars for ethanol fermentation. The benefit of processing the distillers' grains to extract fermentable sugars lies in an increased ethanol yield without significant modification in the current dry grind technology. Three different potential configurations of process alternatives in which pretreated and hydrolyzed distillers' grains are recycled for an enhanced overall ethanol yield are proposed and discussed in this paper based on the liquid hot water (LHW) pretreatment of distillers' grains. Possible limitations of each proposed process are also discussed. This paper presents a compositional analysis of distillers' grains, as well as a simulation of the modified dry grind processes with recycle of distillers' grains. Simulated material balances for the modified dry grind processes are established based on the base case assumptions. These balances are compared to the conventional dry grind process in terms of ethanol yield, compositions of its co-products, and accumulation of fermentation inhibitors. Results show that 14% higher ethanol yield is achievable by processing and hydrolyzing the distillers' grains for additional fermentable sugars, as compared to the conventional dry grind process. Accumulation of fermentation by-products and inhibitory components in the proposed process is predicted to be 2-5 times higher than in the conventional dry grind process. The impact of fermentation inhibitors is reviewed and discussed. The final eDDGS (enhanced dried distillers' grains) from the modified processes has 30-40% greater protein content per mass than DDGS, and its potential as a value-added process is also analyzed. While the case studies used to illustrate the process simulation are based on LHW pretreated DG, the process simulation itself provides a framework for evaluation of the impact of other pretreatments.

Impact sites representing potential bruising locations associated with rearward falls in children.

PubMed

Dsouza, Raymond; Bertocci, Gina

2016-04-01

Children presenting multiple unexplained bruises can be an early sign of physical abuse. Bruising locations on the body can be an effective indicator of abusive versus accidental trauma. Additionally, childhood falls are often used as falsely reported events in child abuse, however, characterization of potential bruising locations associated with these falls does not exist. In our study we used a 12-month old pediatric anthropomorphic test device (ATD) adapted with a custom developed force sensing skin to predict potential bruising locations during rearward falls from standing. The surrogate bruising detection system measured and displayed recorded force data on a computerized body image mapping system when sensors were activated. Simulated rearward fall experiments were performed onto two different impact surfaces (padded carpet and linoleum tile over concrete) with two different initial positions (standing upright and posteriorly inclined) so that the ATD would fall rearward upon release. Findings indicated impact locations, and thus the potential for bruising in the posterior plane primarily within the occipital head and posterior torso regions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ground-Ground Data Communication-Assisted Planning and Coordination: Shorter Verbal Communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kessell, Angela Mary; Lee, Paul U.; Smith, Nancy M.; Lee, Hwasoo Eric

2010-01-01

A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted to investigate the operational feasibility, technical requirements, and potential improvement in airspace efficiency of adding a Multi-Sector Planner position. A subset of the data from that simulation is analyzed here to determine the impact, if any, of ground-ground data communication (Data Comm) on verbal communication and coordination for multi-sector air traffic management. The results suggest that the use of Data Comm significantly decreases the duration of individual verbal communications. The results also suggest that the use of Data Comm, as instantiated in the current simulation, does not obviate the need for accompanying voice calls.

Survival and germinability of Bacillus subtilis spores exposed to simulated Mars solar radiation: implications for life detection and planetary protection.

PubMed

Tauscher, Courtney; Schuerger, Andrew C; Nicholson, Wayne L

2006-08-01

Bacterial spores have been considered as microbial life that could survive interplanetary transport by natural impact processes or human spaceflight activity. Deposition of terrestrial microbes or their biosignature molecules onto the surface of Mars could negatively impact life detection experiments and planetary protection measures. Simulated Mars solar radiation, particularly the ultraviolet component, has been shown to reduce spore viability, but its effect on spore germination and resulting production of biosignature molecules has not been explored. We examined the survival and germinability of Bacillus subtilis spores exposed to simulated martian conditions that include solar radiation. Spores of B. subtilis that contain luciferase resulting from expression of an sspB-luxAB gene fusion were deposited on aluminum coupons to simulate deposition on spacecraft surfaces and exposed to simulated Mars atmosphere and solar radiation. The equivalent of 42 min of simulated Mars solar radiation exposure reduced spore viability by nearly 3 logs, while germination-induced bioluminescence, a measure of germination metabolism, was reduced by less than 1 log. The data indicate that spores can retain the potential to initiate germination-associated metabolic processes and produce biological signature molecules after being rendered nonviable by exposure to Mars solar radiation.

Flash Floods Simulation using a Physical-Based Hydrological Model at Different Hydroclimatic Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saber, Mohamed; Kamil Yilmaz, Koray

2016-04-01

Currently, flash floods are seriously increasing and affecting many regions over the world. Therefore, this study will focus on two case studies; Wadi Abu Subeira, Egypt as arid environment, and Karpuz basin, Turkey as Mediterranean environment. The main objective of this work is to simulate flash floods at both catchments considering the hydrometeorological differences between them which in turn effect their flash flood behaviors. An integrated methodology incorporating Hydrological River Basin Environmental Assessment Model (Hydro-BEAM) and remote sensing observations was devised. Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP) were compared with the rain gauge network at the target basins to estimate the bias in an effort to further use it effectively in simulation of flash floods. Based on the preliminary results of flash floods simulation on both basins, we found that runoff behaviors of flash floods are different due to the impacts of climatology, hydrological and topographical conditions. Also, the simulated surface runoff hydrographs are reasonably coincide with the simulated ones. Consequently, some mitigation strategies relying on this study could be introduced to help in reducing the flash floods disasters at different climate regions. This comparison of different climatic basins would be a reasonable implication for the potential impact of climate change on the flash floods frequencies and occurrences.

Fishing inside or outside? A case studies analysis of potential spillover effect from marine protected areas, using food web models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colléter, Mathieu; Gascuel, Didier; Albouy, Camille; Francour, Patrice; Tito de Morais, Luis; Valls, Audrey; Le Loc'h, François

2014-11-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are implemented worldwide as an efficient tool to preserve biodiversity and protect ecosystems. We used food web models (Ecopath and EcoTroph) to assess the ability of MPAs to reduce fishing impacts on targeted resources and to provide biomass exports for adjacent fisheries. Three coastal MPAs: Bonifacio and Port-Cros (Mediterranean Sea), and Bamboung (Senegalese coast), were used as case studies. Pre-existing related Ecopath models were homogenized and ecosystem characteristics were compared based on network indices and trophic spectra analyses. Using the EcoTroph model, we simulated different fishing mortality scenarios and assessed fishing impacts on the three ecosystems. Lastly, the potential biomass that could be exported from each MPA was estimated. Despite structural and functional trophic differences, the three MPAs showed similar patterns of resistance to simulated fishing mortalities, with the Bonifacio case study exhibiting the highest potential catches and a slightly inferior resistance to fishing. We also show that the potential exports from our small size MPAs are limited and thus may only benefit local fishing activities. Based on simulations, their potential exports were estimated to be at the same order of magnitude as the amount of catch that could have been obtained inside the reserve. In Port Cros, the ban of fishing inside MPA could actually allow for improved catch yields outside the MPA due to biomass exports. This was not the case for the Bonifacio site, as its potential exports were too low to offset catch losses. This insight suggests the need for MPA networks and/or sufficiently large MPAs to effectively protect juveniles and adults and provide important exports. Finally, we discuss the effects of MPAs on fisheries that were not considered in food web models, and conclude by suggesting possible improvements in the analysis of MPA efficiency.

Simulation of Comet Impact and Survivability of Organic Compounds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, B T; Lomov, I N; Blank, J G

Comets have long been proposed as a potential means for the transport of complex organic compounds to early Earth. For this to be a viable mechanism, a significant fraction of organic compounds must survive the high temperatures due to impact. We have undertaken three-dimensional numerical simulations to track the thermodynamic state of a comet during oblique impacts. The comet was modeled as a 1-km water-ice sphere impacting a basalt plane at 11.2 km/s; impact angles of 15{sup o} (from horizontal), 30{sup o}, 45{sup o}, 65{sup o}, and 90{sup o} (normal impact) were examined. The survival of organic cometary material, modeledmore » as water ice for simplicity, was calculated using three criteria: (1) peak temperatures, (2) the thermodynamic phase of H{sub 2}O, and (3) final temperature upon isentropic unloading. For impact angles greater than or equal to 30{sup o}, no organic material is expected to survive the impact. For the 15{sup o} impact, most of the material survives the initial impact and significant fractions (55%, 25%, and 44%, respectively) satisfy each survival criterion at 1 second. Heating due to deceleration, in addition to shock heating, plays a role in the heating of the cometary material for nonnormal impacts. This effect is more noticeable for more oblique impacts, resulting in significant deviations from estimates using scaling of normal impacts. The deceleration heating of the material at late times requires further modeling of breakup and mixing.« less

Experimental benchmarking of a Monte Carlo dose simulation code for pediatric CT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Yoshizumi, Terry; Colsher, James G.; Jones, Robert P.; Frush, Donald P.

2007-03-01

In recent years, there has been a desire to reduce CT radiation dose to children because of their susceptibility and prolonged risk for cancer induction. Concerns arise, however, as to the impact of dose reduction on image quality and thus potentially on diagnostic accuracy. To study the dose and image quality relationship, we are developing a simulation code to calculate organ dose in pediatric CT patients. To benchmark this code, a cylindrical phantom was built to represent a pediatric torso, which allows measurements of dose distributions from its center to its periphery. Dose distributions for axial CT scans were measured on a 64-slice multidetector CT (MDCT) scanner (GE Healthcare, Chalfont St. Giles, UK). The same measurements were simulated using a Monte Carlo code (PENELOPE, Universitat de Barcelona) with the applicable CT geometry including bowtie filter. The deviations between simulated and measured dose values were generally within 5%. To our knowledge, this work is one of the first attempts to compare measured radial dose distributions on a cylindrical phantom with Monte Carlo simulated results. It provides a simple and effective method for benchmarking organ dose simulation codes and demonstrates the potential of Monte Carlo simulation for investigating the relationship between dose and image quality for pediatric CT patients.

Teaching cardiopulmonary auscultation in workshops using a virtual patient simulation technology - A pilot study.

PubMed

Pereira, D; Gomes, P; Faria, S; Cruz-Correia, R; Coimbra, M

2016-08-01

Auscultation is currently both a powerful screening tool, providing a cheap and quick initial assessment of a patient's clinical condition, and a hard skill to master. The teaching of auscultation in Universities is today reduced to an unsuitable number of hours. Virtual patient simulators can potentially mitigate this problem, by providing an interesting high-quality alternative to teaching with real patients or patient simulators. In this paper we evaluate the pedagogical impact of using a virtual patient simulation technology in a short workshop format for medical students, training them to detect cardiac pathologies. Results showed a significant improvement (+16%) in the differentiation between normal and pathological cases, although longer duration formats seem to be needed to accurately identify specific pathologies.

Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

Simulating Deforestation and Carbon Loss in Amazonia: Impacts in Brazil's Roraima State from Reconstructing Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barni, Paulo Eduardo; Fearnside, Philip Martin; Graça, Paulo Maurício Lima de Alencastro

2015-02-01

Reconstruction of Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho) would allow for access from the "arc of deforestation" in the southern part of Brazil's Amazon region to vast blocks of forests in central and northern Amazonia. Building roads is known to be a major driver of deforestation, allowing entry of squatters, and other actors. Rather than deforestation along the highway route, here we consider the road's potential for stimulating deforestation in a separate location, approximately 550 km north of BR-319's endpoint in Manaus. Reconstructing BR-319 has great potential impact to start a new wave of migration to this remote region. The southern portion of the state of Roraima, the focus of our study, is already connected to Manaus by Highway BR-174. We modeled deforestation in southern Roraima and simulated carbon emissions between 2007 and 2030 under four scenarios. Simulations used the AGROECO model in DINAMICA-EGO software. Two scenarios were considered with reconstruction of BR-319 and two without this road connection. For each of the two possibilities regarding BR-319, simulations were developed for (1) a "conservation" (CONSERV) scenario that assumes the creation of a series of protected areas, and (2) a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario that assumes no additional protected areas. Results show that by 2030, with BR-319 rebuilt, deforestation carbon emissions would increase between 19 % (CONSERV) and 42 % (BAU) over and above those corresponding to no-road scenarios.

Simulating deforestation and carbon loss in Amazonia: impacts in Brazil's Roraima state from reconstructing Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho).

PubMed

Barni, Paulo Eduardo; Fearnside, Philip Martin; Graça, Paulo Maurício Lima de Alencastro

2015-02-01

Reconstruction of Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho) would allow for access from the "arc of deforestation" in the southern part of Brazil's Amazon region to vast blocks of forests in central and northern Amazonia. Building roads is known to be a major driver of deforestation, allowing entry of squatters, and other actors. Rather than deforestation along the highway route, here we consider the road's potential for stimulating deforestation in a separate location, approximately 550 km north of BR-319's endpoint in Manaus. Reconstructing BR-319 has great potential impact to start a new wave of migration to this remote region. The southern portion of the state of Roraima, the focus of our study, is already connected to Manaus by Highway BR-174. We modeled deforestation in southern Roraima and simulated carbon emissions between 2007 and 2030 under four scenarios. Simulations used the AGROECO model in DINAMICA-EGO © software. Two scenarios were considered with reconstruction of BR-319 and two without this road connection. For each of the two possibilities regarding BR-319, simulations were developed for (1) a "conservation" (CONSERV) scenario that assumes the creation of a series of protected areas, and (2) a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario that assumes no additional protected areas. Results show that by 2030, with BR-319 rebuilt, deforestation carbon emissions would increase between 19% (CONSERV) and 42% (BAU) over and above those corresponding to no-road scenarios.

Assessing the air quality impact of nitrogen oxides and benzene from road traffic and domestic heating and the associated cancer risk in an urban area of Verona (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiavon, Marco; Redivo, Martina; Antonacci, Gianluca; Rada, Elena Cristina; Ragazzi, Marco; Zardi, Dino; Giovannini, Lorenzo

2015-11-01

Simulations of emission and dispersion of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are performed in an urban area of Verona (Italy), characterized by street canyons and typical sources of urban pollutants. Two dominant source categories are considered: road traffic and, as an element of novelty, domestic heaters. Also, to assess the impact of urban air pollution on human health and, in particular, the cancer risk, simulations of emission and dispersion of benzene are carried out. Emissions from road traffic are estimated by the COPERT 4 algorithm, whilst NOx emission factors from domestic heaters are retrieved by means of criteria provided in the technical literature. Then maps of the annual mean concentrations of NOx and benzene are calculated using the AUSTAL2000 dispersion model, considering both scenarios representing the current situation, and scenarios simulating the introduction of environmental strategies for air pollution mitigation. The simulations highlight potentially critical situations of human exposure that may not be detected by the conventional network of air quality monitoring stations. The proposed methodology provides a support for air quality policies, such as planning targeted measurement campaigns, re-locating monitoring stations and adopting measures in favour of better air quality in urban planning. In particular, the estimation of the induced cancer risk is an important starting point to conduct zoning analyses and to detect the areas where population is more directly exposed to potential risks for health.

Procedural training and assessment of competency utilizing simulation.

PubMed

Sawyer, Taylor; Gray, Megan M

2016-11-01

This review examines the current environment of neonatal procedural learning, describes an updated model of skills training, defines the role of simulation in assessing competency, and discusses potential future directions for simulation-based competency assessment. In order to maximize impact, simulation-based procedural training programs should follow a standardized and evidence-based approach to designing and evaluating educational activities. Simulation can be used to facilitate the evaluation of competency, but must incorporate validated assessment tools to ensure quality and consistency. True competency evaluation cannot be accomplished with simulation alone: competency assessment must also include evaluations of procedural skill during actual clinical care. Future work in this area is needed to measure and track clinically meaningful patient outcomes resulting from simulation-based training, examine the use of simulation to assist physicians undergoing re-entry to practice, and to examine the use of procedural skills simulation as part of a maintenance of competency and life-long learning. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Self-Consistent Monte Carlo Study of the Coulomb Interaction under Nano-Scale Device Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sano, Nobuyuki

2011-03-01

It has been pointed that the Coulomb interaction between the electrons is expected to be of crucial importance to predict reliable device characteristics. In particular, the device performance is greatly degraded due to the plasmon excitation represented by dynamical potential fluctuations in high-doped source and drain regions by the channel electrons. We employ the self-consistent 3D Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, which could reproduce both the correct mobility under various electron concentrations and the collective plasma waves, to study the physical impact of dynamical potential fluctuations on device performance under the Double-gate MOSFETs. The average force experienced by an electron due to the Coulomb interaction inside the device is evaluated by performing the self-consistent MC simulations and the fixed-potential MC simulations without the Coulomb interaction. Also, the band-tailing associated with the local potential fluctuations in high-doped source region is quantitatively evaluated and it is found that the band-tailing becomes strongly dependent of position in real space even inside the uniform source region. This work was partially supported by Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research B (No. 2160160) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology in Japan.

Examining System-Wide Impacts of Solar PV Control Systems with a Power Hardware-in-the-Loop Platform

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Tess L.; Fuller, Jason C.; Schneider, Kevin P.

2014-10-11

High penetration levels of distributed solar PV power generation can lead to adverse power quality impacts such as excessive voltage rise, voltage flicker, and reactive power values that result in unacceptable voltage levels. Advanced inverter control schemes have been proposed that have the potential to mitigate many power quality concerns. However, closed-loop control may lead to unintended behavior in deployed systems as complex interactions can occur between numerous operating devices. In order to enable the study of the performance of advanced control schemes in a detailed distribution system environment, a Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) platform has been developed. In the HIL system,more » GridLAB-D, a distribution system simulation tool, runs in real-time mode at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and supplies power system parameters at a point of common coupling to hardware located at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Hardware inverters interact with grid and PV simulators emulating an operational distribution system and power output from the inverters is measured and sent to PNNL to update the real-time distribution system simulation. The platform is described and initial test cases are presented. The platform is used to study the system-wide impacts and the interactions of controls applied to inverters that are integrated into a simulation of the IEEE 8500-node test feeder, with inverters in either constant power factor control or active volt/VAR control. We demonstrate that this HIL platform is well-suited to the study of advanced inverter controls and their impacts on the power quality of a distribution feeder. Additionally, the results from HIL are used to validate GridLAB-D simulations of advanced inverter controls.« less

Numerical Studies of Thermal Conditions in Cities - Systematic Model Simulations of Idealized Urban Domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heene, V.; Buchholz, S.; Kossmann, M.

2016-12-01

Numerical studies of thermal conditions in cities based on model simulations of idealized urban domains are carried out to investigate how changes in the characteristics of urban areas influence street level air temperatures. The simulated modifications of the urban characteristics represent possible adaptation measures for heat reduction in cities, which are commonly used in urban planning. Model simulations are performed with the thermodynamic version of the 3-dimensional micro-scale urban climate model MUKLIMO_3. The simulated idealized urban areas are designed in a simplistic way, i. e. defining homogeneous squared cities of one settlement type, without orography and centered in the model domain. To assess the impact of different adaptation measures the characteristics of the urban areas have been systematically modified regarding building height, albedo of building roof and impervious surfaces, fraction of impervious surfaces between buildings, and percentage of green roofs. To assess the impact of green and blue infrastructure in cities, different configurations for parks and lakes have been investigated - e. g. varying size and distribution within the city. The experiments are performed for different combinations of typical German settlement types and surrounding rural types under conditions of a typical summer day in July. The adaptation measures implemented in the experiments show different impacts for different settlement types mainly due to the differences in building density, building height or impervious surface fraction. Parks and lakes implemented as adaptation measure show strong potential to reduce daytime air temperature, with cooling effects on their built-up surroundings. At night lakes generate negative and positive effects on air temperature, depending on water temperature. In general, all adaptation measures implemented in experiments reveal different impacts on day and night air temperature.

Modeling a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Process Chain: The Case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chisolm, Rachel; Somos-Valenzuela, Marcelo; Rivas Gomez, Denny; McKinney, Daene C.; Portocarrero Rodriguez, Cesar

2016-04-01

One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered by avalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes that may culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previously catastrophic GLOF on December 13, 1941, 1800 people in the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes: (1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalanche impact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes; (3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations to determine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results of each process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain, finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. The results of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity and hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumes ranging from 0.5-3 x 106 m3 were simulated, and two scenarios of 15 m and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess the potential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalanche events, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated in the lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming-moraine. Despite very high discharge rates (up to 63.4 x 103 m3/s), the erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming-moraine when simulated with a hydro-morphodynamic model using excessively conservative soil characteristics that provide very little erosion resistance. With the current lake level, all three avalanche events result in inundation in Huaraz, and the resulting hazard map shows a total affected area of 2.01 km2, most of which is in the high-hazard category. Lowering the lake has the potential to reduce the affected area by up to 35% resulting in a smaller portion of the inundated area in the high-hazard category.

Implementation of an open-scenario, long-term space debris simulation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stupl, J.; Nelson, B.; Faber, N.; Perez, A.; Carlino, R.; Yang, F.; Henze, C.; Karacalioglu, A.; O'Toole, C.; Swenson, J.

This paper provides a status update on the implementation of a flexible, long-term space debris simulation approach. The motivation is to build a tool that can assess the long-term impact of various options for debris-remediation, including the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme. State-of-the-art simulation approaches that assess the long-term development of the debris environment use either completely statistical approaches, or they rely on large time steps in the order of several (5-15) days if they simulate the positions of single objects over time. They cannot be easily adapted to investigate the impact of specific collision avoidance schemes or de-orbit schemes, because the efficiency of a collision avoidance maneuver can depend on various input parameters, including ground station positions, space object parameters and orbital parameters of the conjunctions and take place in much smaller timeframes than 5-15 days. For example, LightForce only changes the orbit of a certain object (aiming to reduce the probability of collision), but it does not remove entire objects or groups of objects. In the same sense, it is also not straightforward to compare specific de-orbit methods in regard to potential collision risks during a de-orbit maneuver. To gain flexibility in assessing interactions with objects, we implement a simulation that includes every tracked space object in LEO, propagates all objects with high precision, and advances with variable-sized time-steps as small as one second. It allows the assessment of the (potential) impact of changes to any object. The final goal is to employ a Monte Carlo approach to assess the debris evolution during the simulation time-frame of 100 years and to compare a baseline scenario to debris remediation scenarios or other scenarios of interest. To populate the initial simulation, we use the entire space-track object catalog in LEO. We then use a high precision propagator to propagate all objects over the entire simulation duration. If collisions are detected, the appropriate number of debris objects are created and inserted into the simulation framework. Depending on the scenario, further objects, e.g. due to new launches, can be added. At the end of the simulation, the total number of objects above a cut-off size and the number of detected collisions provide benchmark parameters for the comparison between scenarios. The simulation approach is computationally intensive as it involves ten thousands of objects; hence we use a highly parallel approach employing up to a thousand cores on the NASA Pleiades supercomputer for a single run. This paper describes our simulation approach, the status of its implementation, the approach in developing scenarios and examples of first test runs.

Implementation of an Open-Scenario, Long-Term Space Debris Simulation Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Bron; Yang Yang, Fan; Carlino, Roberto; Dono Perez, Andres; Faber, Nicolas; Henze, Chris; Karacalioglu, Arif Goktug; O'Toole, Conor; Swenson, Jason; Stupl, Jan

2015-01-01

This paper provides a status update on the implementation of a flexible, long-term space debris simulation approach. The motivation is to build a tool that can assess the long-term impact of various options for debris-remediation, including the LightForce space debris collision avoidance concept that diverts objects using photon pressure [9]. State-of-the-art simulation approaches that assess the long-term development of the debris environment use either completely statistical approaches, or they rely on large time steps on the order of several days if they simulate the positions of single objects over time. They cannot be easily adapted to investigate the impact of specific collision avoidance schemes or de-orbit schemes, because the efficiency of a collision avoidance maneuver can depend on various input parameters, including ground station positions and orbital and physical parameters of the objects involved in close encounters (conjunctions). Furthermore, maneuvers take place on timescales much smaller than days. For example, LightForce only changes the orbit of a certain object (aiming to reduce the probability of collision), but it does not remove entire objects or groups of objects. In the same sense, it is also not straightforward to compare specific de-orbit methods in regard to potential collision risks during a de-orbit maneuver. To gain flexibility in assessing interactions with objects, we implement a simulation that includes every tracked space object in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and propagates all objects with high precision and variable time-steps as small as one second. It allows the assessment of the (potential) impact of physical or orbital changes to any object. The final goal is to employ a Monte Carlo approach to assess the debris evolution during the simulation time-frame of 100 years and to compare a baseline scenario to debris remediation scenarios or other scenarios of interest. To populate the initial simulation, we use the entire space-track object catalog in LEO. We then use a high precision propagator to propagate all objects over the entire simulation duration. If collisions are detected, the appropriate number of debris objects are created and inserted into the simulation framework. Depending on the scenario, further objects, e.g. due to new launches, can be added. At the end of the simulation, the total number of objects above a cut-off size and the number of detected collisions provide benchmark parameters for the comparison between scenarios. The simulation approach is computationally intensive as it involves tens of thousands of objects; hence we use a highly parallel approach employing up to a thousand cores on the NASA Pleiades supercomputer for a single run. This paper describes our simulation approach, the status of its implementation, the approach to developing scenarios and examples of first test runs.

Modeling disturbance-based native invasive species control and its implications for management.

PubMed

Shackelford, Nancy; Renton, Michael; Perring, Michael P; Hobbs, Richard J

2013-09-01

Shifts in disturbance regime have often been linked to invasion in systems by native and nonnative species. This process can have negative effects on biodiversity and ecosystem function. Degradation may be ameliorated by the reinstatement of the disturbance regimes, such as the reintroduction of fire in pyrogenic systems. Modeling is one method through which potential outcomes of different regimes can be investigated. We created a population model to examine the control of a native invasive that is expanding and increasing in abundance due to suppressed fire. Our model, parameterized with field data from a case study of the tree Allocasuarina huegeliana in Australian sandplain heath, simulated different fire return intervals with and without the additional management effort of mechanical removal of the native invader. Population behavior under the different management options was assessed, and general estimates of potential biodiversity impacts were compared. We found that changes in fire return intervals made no significant difference in the increase and spread of the population. However, decreased fire return intervals did lower densities reached in the simulated heath patch as well as the estimated maximum biodiversity impacts. When simulating both mechanical removal and fire, we found that the effects of removal depended on the return intervals and the strategy used. Increase rates were not significantly affected by any removal strategy. However, we found that removal, particularly over the whole patch rather than focusing on satellite populations, could decrease average and maximum densities reached and thus decrease the predicted biodiversity impacts. Our simulation model shows that disturbance-based management has the potential to control native invasion in cases where shifted disturbance is the likely driver of the invasion. The increased knowledge gained through the modeling methods outlined can inform management decisions in fire regime planning that takes into consideration control of an invasive species. Although particularly applicable to native invasives, when properly informed by empirical knowledge these techniques can be expanded to management of invasion by nonnative species, either by restoring historic disturbance regimes or by instating novel regimes in innovative ways.

Space-based Lidar Measurements of Greenhouse Gases and Their Projected Impact on Quantification of Surface Sources and Sinks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawa, S. R.; Baker, D. F.; Chatterjee, A.; Crowell, S.

2016-12-01

The measurement of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG), principally CO2 and CH4, from space using active (lidar) sensing techniques has several potentially significant advantages in comparison to missions using passive instrument approaches. A great deal of progress has been made in development of the active methods since the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) 2007 Decadal Survey recommended the ASCENDS mission (Active Sensing of Carbon Emissions, Nights, Days, and Seasons) for NASA's next generation CO2 observing system. Active GHG missions remain in consideration by the current NAS Decadal Survey for Earth Science 2017. In this presentation, we update the measurement characteristics expected for active GHG sensing, test how these measurements will enhance our ability to quantify GHG surface fluxes, and examine the potential role of active sensing to address carbon cycle issues as required for confident projection of carbon-climate interactions. Over the past decade, laser CO2 instrument concepts, retrieval approaches, and measurement techniques have matured significantly, driven by technology advances and by analysis of data from airborne simulators. Performance simulations updated to match the latest developments show substantially lower random errors, better spatial resolution, and more information content for global XCO2 data than just a few years ago. Observing System Simulation Experiments using global flux inversion models show corresponding improvements in resolving surface fluxes and reducing flux uncertainties for the expected lidar data. Simulations including prospective systematic (bias) errors, which are expected to be lesser for the lidar system compared to passive measurements, provide guidance for instrument design requirements. We will comment on the impact of errors in knowledge of the atmospheric state including the need for coincident measurements of O2 column in order to normalize the column abundances to dry air mole fraction. We will also comment on the potential impact of future active missions for CH4. The results indicate that active systems will provide GHG measurements of high quality and spatial sampling that will contribute substantially to knowledge of carbon flux distributions and their dependence on underlying physical processes in critical regions.

An Integrated Framework for Modeling Air Carrier Behavior, Policy, and Impacts in the U.S. Air Transportation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horio, Brant M.; Kumar, Vivek; DeCicco, Anthony H.; Hasan, Shahab; Stouffer, Virginia L.; Smith, Jeremy C.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.

2015-01-01

The implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) in the United States is an ongoing challenge for policymakers due to the complexity of the air transportation system (ATS) with its broad array of stakeholders and dynamic interdependencies between them. The successful implementation of NextGen has a hard dependency on the active participation of U.S. commercial airlines. To assist policymakers in identifying potential policy designs that facilitate the implementation of NextGen, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS). This framework integrates large empirical data sets with multiple specialized models to simulate the evolution of the airline response to potential future policies and explore consequential impacts on ATS performance and market dynamics. In the ATS-EVOS configuration presented here, we leverage the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), the Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS), the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES), and the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), all of which enable this research to comprehensively represent the complex facets of the ATS and its participants. We validated this baseline configuration of ATS-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments that explored potential implementations of a carbon tax, congestion pricing policy, and the dynamics for equipage of new technology by airlines. These experiments demonstrated ATS-EVOS's capabilities in responding to a wide range of potential NextGen-related policies and utility for decision makers to gain insights for effective policy design.

Simulating the yield impacts of organ-level quantitative trait loci associated with drought response in maize: a "gene-to-phenotype" modeling approach.

PubMed

Chenu, Karine; Chapman, Scott C; Tardieu, François; McLean, Greg; Welcker, Claude; Hammer, Graeme L

2009-12-01

Under drought, substantial genotype-environment (G x E) interactions impede breeding progress for yield. Identifying genetic controls associated with yield response is confounded by poor genetic correlations across testing environments. Part of this problem is related to our inability to account for the interplay of genetic controls, physiological traits, and environmental conditions throughout the crop cycle. We propose a modeling approach to bridge this "gene-to-phenotype" gap. For maize under drought, we simulated the impact of quantitative trait loci (QTL) controlling two key processes (leaf and silk elongation) that influence crop growth, water use, and grain yield. Substantial G x E interaction for yield was simulated for hypothetical recombinant inbred lines (RILs) across different seasonal patterns of drought. QTL that accelerated leaf elongation caused an increase in crop leaf area and yield in well-watered or preflowering water deficit conditions, but a reduction in yield under terminal stresses (as such "leafy" genotypes prematurely exhausted the water supply). The QTL impact on yield was substantially enhanced by including pleiotropic effects of these QTL on silk elongation and on consequent grain set. The simulations obtained illustrated the difficulty of interpreting the genetic control of yield for genotypes influenced only by the additive effects of QTL associated with leaf and silk growth. The results highlight the potential of integrative simulation modeling for gene-to-phenotype prediction and for exploiting G x E interactions for complex traits such as drought tolerance.

Aftermath of early Hit-and-Run collisions in the Inner Solar System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarid, Gal; Stewart, Sarah T.; Leinhardt, zoe M.

2015-08-01

Planet formation epoch, in the terrestrial planet region and the asteroid belt, was characterized by a vigorous dynamical environment that was conducive to giant impacts among planetary embryos and asteroidal parent bodies, leading to diverse outcomes. Among these the greatest potential for producing diverse end-members lies is the erosive Hit-and-Run regime (small mass ratios, off-axis oblique impacts and non-negligible ejected mass), which is also more probable in terms of the early dynamical encounter configuration in the inner solar system. This collision regime has been invoked to explain outstanding issues, such as planetary volatile loss records, origin of the Moon and mantle stripping from Mercury and some of the larger asteroids (Vesta, Psyche).We performed and analyzed a set of simulations of Hit-and-Run events, covering a large range of mass ratios (1-20), impact parameters (0.25-0.96, for near head-on to barely grazing) and impact velocities (~1.5-5 times the mutual escape velocity, as dependent on the mass ratio). We used an SPH code with tabulated EOS and a nominal simlated time >1 day, to track the collisional shock processing and the provenance of material components. of collision debris. Prior to impact runs, all bodies were allowed to initially settle to negligible particle velocities in isolation, within ~20 simulated hrs. The total number of particles involved in each of our collision simulations was between (1-3 x 105). Resulting configurations include stripped mantles, melting/vaporization of rock and/or iron cores and strong variations of asteroid parent bodies fromcanonical chondritic composition.In the context of large planetary formation simulations, velocity and impact angle distributions are necessary to asses impact probabilities. The mass distribution and interaction within planetary embryo and asteroid swarms depends both on gravitational dynamics and the applied fragmentation mechanism. We will present results pertaining to general projectile remnant scaling relations, constitution of ejected unbound material and the composition of variedcollision remnants, which become available to seed the asteroid belt.

Potential climate change impacts on water availability and cooling water demand in the Lusatian Lignite Mining Region, Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohle, Ina; Koch, Hagen; Gädeke, Anne; Grünewald, Uwe; Kaltofen, Michael; Redetzky, Michael

2014-05-01

In the catchments of the rivers Schwarze Elster, Spree and Lusatian Neisse, hydrologic and socioeconomic systems are coupled via a complex water management system in which water users, reservoirs and water transfers are included. Lignite mining and electricity production are major water users in the region: To allow for open pit lignite mining, ground water is depleted and released into the river system while cooling water is used in the thermal power plants. In order to assess potential climate change impacts on water availability in the catchments as well as on the water demand of the thermal power plants, a climate change impact assessment was performed using the hydrological model SWIM and the long term water management model WBalMo. The potential impacts of climate change were considered by using three regional climate change scenarios of the statistical regional climate model STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0, 2 or 3 K by the year 2050 in the region respectively. Furthermore, scenarios assuming decreasing mining activities in terms of a decreasing groundwater depression cone, lower mining water discharges, and reduced cooling water demand of the thermal power plants are considered. In the standard version of the WBalMo model cooling water demand is considered as static with regard to climate variables. However, changes in the future cooling water demand over time according to the plans of the local mining and power plant operator are considered. In order to account for climate change impacts on the cooling water demand of the thermal power plants, a dynamical approach for calculating water demand was implemented in WBalMo. As this approach is based on air temperature and air humidity, the projected air temperature and air humidity of the climate scenarios at the locations of the power plants are included in the calculation. Due to increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation declining natural and managed discharges, and hence a lower water availability in the region, were simulated by SWIM and WBalMo respectively. Next to changing climate conditions, also the different mining scenarios have considerable impacts on natural and managed discharges. Using the dynamic approach for cooling water demand, the simulated water demands are lower in winter, but higher in summer compared to the static approach. As a consequence of changes in the seasonal pattern of the cooling water demand of the power plants, lower summer discharges downstream of the thermal power plants are simulated using the dynamical approach. Due to the complex water management system in the region included in the water management model WBalMo, also the simulation of reservoir releases and volumes is impacted by the choice of either the static or the dynamic approach for calculating the cooling water demand of the thermal power plants.

Re-solution of xenon clusters in plutonium dioxide under the collision cascade impact: A molecular dynamics simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seitov, D. D.; Nekrasov, K. A.; Kupryazhkin, A. Ya.; Gupta, S. K.; Akilbekov, A. T.

2017-09-01

The interaction of xenon clusters with the collision cascades in the PuO2 crystals is investigated using the molecular dynamics simulation and the approximation of the pair interaction potentials. The potentials of interaction of Xe atoms with the surrounding particles in the crystal lattice are suggested, that are valid in the range of high collision energies. The cascades created by the recoil 235U ions formed as the plutonium α-decay product are considered, and the influence of such cascades on the structure of the xenon clusters is analyzed. It is shown, that the cascade-cluster interaction leads to release of the xenon atoms from the clusters and their subsequent re-solution in the crystal bulk.

Estimating the Potential Health Impact and Costs of Implementing a Local Policy for Food Procurement to Reduce the Consumption of Sodium in the County of Los Angeles

PubMed Central

Kuo, Tony; Dunet, Diane; Schmidt, Steven M.; Simon, Paul A.; Fielding, Jonathan E.

2011-01-01

Objectives. We examined approaches to reduce sodium content of food served in settings operated or funded by the government of the County of Los Angeles, California. Methods. We adapted health impact assessment methods to mathematically simulate various levels of reduction in the sodium content of food served by the County of Los Angeles and to estimate the reductions’ potential impacts on mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) among food-service customers. We used data provided by county government food-service vendors to generate these simulations. Results. Our analysis predicted that if the postulated sodium-reduction strategies were implemented, adults would consume, on average, 233 fewer milligrams of sodium each day. This would correspond to an average decrease of 0.71 millimeters of mercury in SBP among adult hypertensives, 388 fewer cases of uncontrolled hypertension in the study population, and an annual decrease of $629 724 in direct health care costs. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that a food-procurement policy can contribute to positive health and economic effects at the local level. Our approach may serve as an example of sodium-reduction analysis for other jurisdictions to follow. PMID:21680933

SPMHD simulations of structure formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, David J.; On, Alvina Y. L.; Wu, Kinwah; Kawata, Daisuke

2018-05-01

The intracluster medium of galaxy clusters is permeated by μ {G} magnetic fields. Observations with current and future facilities have the potential to illuminate the role of these magnetic fields play in the astrophysical processes of galaxy clusters. To obtain a greater understanding of how the initial seed fields evolve to the magnetic fields in the intracluster medium requires magnetohydrodynamic simulations. We critically assess the current smoothed particle magnetohydrodynamic (SPMHD) schemes, especially highlighting the impact of a hyperbolic divergence cleaning scheme and artificial resistivity switch on the magnetic field evolution in cosmological simulations of the formation of a galaxy cluster using the N-body/SPMHD code GCMHD++. The impact and performance of the cleaning scheme and two different schemes for the artificial resistivity switch is demonstrated via idealized test cases and cosmological simulations. We demonstrate that the hyperbolic divergence cleaning scheme is effective at suppressing the growth of the numerical divergence error of the magnetic field and should be applied to any SPMHD simulation. Although the artificial resistivity is important in the strong field regime, it can suppress the growth of the magnetic field in the weak field regime, such as galaxy clusters. With sufficient resolution, simulations with divergence cleaning can reproduce observed magnetic fields. We conclude that the cleaning scheme alone is sufficient for galaxy cluster simulations, but our results indicate that the SPMHD scheme must be carefully chosen depending on the regime of the magnetic field.

Invasive meningococcal disease epidemiology and control measures: a framework for evaluation.

PubMed

Caro, J Jaime; Möller, Jörgen; Getsios, Denis; Coudeville, L; El-Hadi, Wissam; Chevat, Catherine; Nguyen, Van Hung; Caro, Ingrid

2007-06-29

Meningococcal disease can have devastating consequences. As new vaccines emerge, it is necessary to assess their impact on public health. In the absence of long-term real world data, modeling the effects of different vaccination strategies is required. Discrete event simulation provides a flexible platform with which to conduct such evaluations. A discrete event simulation of the epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease was developed to quantify the potential impact of implementing routine vaccination of adolescents in the United States with a quadrivalent conjugate vaccine protecting against serogroups A, C, Y, and W-135. The impact of vaccination is assessed including both the direct effects on individuals vaccinated and the indirect effects resulting from herd immunity. The simulation integrates a variety of epidemiologic and demographic data, with core information on the incidence of invasive meningococcal disease and outbreak frequency derived from data available through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Simulation of the potential indirect benefits of vaccination resulting from herd immunity draw on data from the United Kingdom, where routine vaccination with a conjugate vaccine has been in place for a number of years. Cases of disease are modeled along with their health consequences, as are the occurrence of disease outbreaks. When run without a strategy of routine immunization, the simulation accurately predicts the age-specific incidence of invasive meningococcal disease and the site-specific frequency of outbreaks in the Unite States. 2,807 cases are predicted annually, resulting in over 14,000 potential life years lost due to invasive disease. In base case analyses of routine vaccination, life years lost due to infection are reduced by over 45% (to 7,600) when routinely vaccinating adolescents 12 years of age at 70% coverage. Sensitivity analyses indicate that herd immunity plays an important role when this population is targeted for vaccination. While 1,100 cases are avoided annually when herd immunity effects are included, in the absence of any herd immunity, the number of cases avoided with routine vaccination falls to 380 annually. The duration of vaccine protection also strongly influences results. In the absence of appropriate real world data on outcomes associated with large-scale vaccination programs, decisions on optimal immunization strategies can be aided by discrete events simulations such as the one described here. Given the importance of herd immunity on outcomes associated with routine vaccination, published estimates of the economic efficiency of routine vaccination with a quadrivalent conjugate vaccine in the United States may have considerably underestimated the benefits associated with a policy of routine immunization of adolescents.

Communication: Methane dissociation on Ni(111) surface: Importance of azimuth and surface impact site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Xiangjian; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Reaction Dynamics and Center for Theoretical Computational Chemistry, Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Dalian 116023; Zhang, Zhaojun, E-mail: zhangzhj@dicp.ac.cn, E-mail: zhangdh@dicp.ac.cn

2016-03-14

Understanding the role of reactant ro-vibrational degrees of freedom (DOFs) in reaction dynamics of polyatomic molecular dissociation on metal surfaces is of great importance to explore the complex chemical reaction mechanism. Here, we present an expensive quantum dynamics study of the dissociative chemisorption of CH{sub 4} on a rigid Ni(111) surface by developing an accurate nine-dimensional quantum dynamical model including the DOF of azimuth. Based on a highly accurate fifteen-dimensional potential energy surface built from first principles, our simulations elucidate that the dissociation probability of CH{sub 4} has the strong dependence on azimuth and surface impact site. Some improvements aremore » suggested to obtain the accurate dissociation probability from quantum dynamics simulations.« less

Long-Term Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on Streamwater Salinity in New York State: INCA Simulations Offer Cautious Optimism.

PubMed

Gutchess, Kristina; Jin, Li; Ledesma, José L J; Crossman, Jill; Kelleher, Christa; Lautz, Laura; Lu, Zunli

2018-02-06

The long-term application of road salts has led to a rise in surface water chloride (Cl - ) concentrations. While models have been used to assess the potential future impacts of continued deicing practices, prior approaches have not incorporated changes in climate that are projected to impact hydrogeology in the 21st century. We use an INtegrated CAtchment (INCA) model to simulate Cl - concentrations in the Tioughnioga River watershed. The model was run over a baseline period (1961-1990) and climate simulations from a range of GCMs run over three 30-year intervals (2010-2039; 2040-2069; 2070-2099). Model projections suggest that Cl - concentrations in the two river branches will continue to rise for several decades, before beginning to decline around 2040-2069, with all GCM scenarios indicating reductions in snowfall and associated salt applications over the 21st century. The delay in stream response is most likely attributed to climate change and continued contribution of Cl - from aquifers. By 2100, surface water Cl - concentrations will decrease to below 1960s values. Catchments dominated by urban lands will experience a decrease in average surface water Cl - , although moderate compared to more rural catchments.

Irrigation water policy analysis using a business simulation game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchholz, M.; Holst, G.; Musshoff, O.

2016-10-01

Despite numerous studies on farmers' responses to changing irrigation water policies, uncertainties remain about the potential of water pricing schemes and water quotas to reduce irrigation. Thus far, policy impact analysis is predominantly based upon rational choice models that assume behavioral assumptions, such as a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker. Also, econometric techniques are applied which could lack internal validity due to uncontrolled field data. Furthermore, such techniques are not capable of identifying ill-designed policies prior to their implementation. With this in mind, we apply a business simulation game for ex ante policy impact analysis of irrigation water policies at the farm level. Our approach has the potential to reveal the policy-induced behavioral change of the participants in a controlled environment. To do so, we investigate how real farmers from Germany, in an economic experiment, respond to a water pricing scheme and a water quota intending to reduce irrigation. In the business simulation game, the participants manage a "virtual" cash-crop farm for which they make crop allocation and irrigation decisions during several production periods, while facing uncertain product prices and weather conditions. The results reveal that a water quota is able to reduce mean irrigation applications, while a water pricing scheme does not have an impact, even though both policies exhibit equal income effects for the farmers. However, both policies appear to increase the variation of irrigation applications. Compared to a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker, the participants apply less irrigation on average, both when irrigation is not restricted and when a water pricing scheme applies. Moreover, the participants' risk attitude affects the irrigation decisions.

A new DG nanoscale TFET based on MOSFETs by using source gate electrode: 2D simulation and an analytical potential model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramezani, Zeinab; Orouji, Ali A.

2017-08-01

This paper suggests and investigates a double-gate (DG) MOSFET, which emulates tunnel field effect transistors (M-TFET). We have combined this novel concept into a double-gate MOSFET, which behaves as a tunneling field effect transistor by work function engineering. In the proposed structure, in addition to the main gate, we utilize another gate over the source region with zero applied voltage and a proper work function to convert the source region from N+ to P+. We check the impact obtained by varying the source gate work function and source doping on the device parameters. The simulation results of the M-TFET indicate that it is a suitable case for a switching performance. Also, we present a two-dimensional analytic potential model of the proposed structure by solving the Poisson's equation in x and y directions and by derivatives from the potential profile; thus, the electric field is achieved. To validate our present model, we use the SILVACO ATLAS device simulator. The analytical results have been compared with it.

[Use of driving simulators in psychological research].

PubMed

Andysz, Aleksandra; Waszkowska, Małgorzata; Merecz, Dorota; Drabek, Marcin

2010-01-01

The history of simulators dates back to the first decades of the twentieth century. At the beginning they were used to train pilots, and eventually they were used in the automotive industry for testing the strength of new vehicles and ergonomic solutions. With time research institutions and technical universities from outside the automotive industry have become more and more interested in simulators. Attractiveness of simulators for researchers is based on a number of important factors: they create the possibility of modeling, control and repeatability of different experimental situations, reducing at the same time the impact of confounding factors. Simulators have a great potential for data collection and processing. What's more, they are safe and ecologic. These values make them almost an ideal research tool. The article presents a review of psychological studies with use of vehicle driving simulators. It also points to advantages and disadvantages of these devices and outlines the future prospects for experimental research.

Mapping and modeling the biogeochemical cycling of turf grasses in the United States.

PubMed

Milesi, Cristina; Running, Steven W; Elvidge, Christopher D; Dietz, John B; Tuttle, Benjamin T; Nemani, Ramakrishna R

2005-09-01

Turf grasses are ubiquitous in the urban landscape of the United States and are often associated with various types of environmental impacts, especially on water resources, yet there have been limited efforts to quantify their total surface and ecosystem functioning, such as their total impact on the continental water budget and potential net ecosystem exchange (NEE). In this study, relating turf grass area to an estimate of fractional impervious surface area, it was calculated that potentially 163,800 km2 (+/- 35,850 km2) of land are cultivated with turf grasses in the continental United States, an area three times larger than that of any irrigated crop. Using the Biome-BGC ecosystem process model, the growth of warm-season and cool-season turf grasses was modeled at a number of sites across the 48 conterminous states under different management scenarios, simulating potential carbon and water fluxes as if the entire turf surface was to be managed like a well-maintained lawn. The results indicate that well-watered and fertilized turf grasses act as a carbon sink. The potential NEE that could derive from the total surface potentially under turf (up to 17 Tg C/yr with the simulated scenarios) would require up to 695 to 900 liters of water per person per day, depending on the modeled water irrigation practices, suggesting that outdoor water conservation practices such as xeriscaping and irrigation with recycled waste-water may need to be extended as many municipalities continue to face increasing pressures on freshwater.

Current status of validation for robotic surgery simulators - a systematic review.

PubMed

Abboudi, Hamid; Khan, Mohammed S; Aboumarzouk, Omar; Guru, Khurshid A; Challacombe, Ben; Dasgupta, Prokar; Ahmed, Kamran

2013-02-01

To analyse studies validating the effectiveness of robotic surgery simulators. The MEDLINE(®), EMBASE(®) and PsycINFO(®) databases were systematically searched until September 2011. References from retrieved articles were reviewed to broaden the search. The simulator name, training tasks, participant level, training duration and evaluation scoring were extracted from each study. We also extracted data on feasibility, validity, cost-effectiveness, reliability and educational impact. We identified 19 studies investigating simulation options in robotic surgery. There are five different robotic surgery simulation platforms available on the market. In all, 11 studies sought opinion and compared performance between two different groups; 'expert' and 'novice'. Experts ranged in experience from 21-2200 robotic cases. The novice groups consisted of participants with no prior experience on a robotic platform and were often medical students or junior doctors. The Mimic dV-Trainer(®), ProMIS(®), SimSurgery Educational Platform(®) (SEP) and Intuitive systems have shown face, content and construct validity. The Robotic Surgical SimulatorTM system has only been face and content validated. All of the simulators except SEP have shown educational impact. Feasibility and cost-effectiveness of simulation systems was not evaluated in any trial. Virtual reality simulators were shown to be effective training tools for junior trainees. Simulation training holds the greatest potential to be used as an adjunct to traditional training methods to equip the next generation of robotic surgeons with the skills required to operate safely. However, current simulation models have only been validated in small studies. There is no evidence to suggest one type of simulator provides more effective training than any other. More research is needed to validate simulated environments further and investigate the effectiveness of animal and cadaveric training in robotic surgery. © 2012 BJU International.

A Fresh Look at Weather Impact on Peak Electricity Demand and Energy Use of Buildings Using 30-Year Actual Weather Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hong, Tianzhen; Chang, Wen-Kuei; Lin, Hung-Wen

Buildings consume more than one third of the world?s total primary energy. Weather plays a unique and significant role as it directly affects the thermal loads and thus energy performance of buildings. The traditional simulated energy performance using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data represents the building performance for a typical year, but not necessarily the average or typical long-term performance as buildings with different energy systems and designs respond differently to weather changes. Furthermore, the single-year TMY simulations do not provide a range of results that capture yearly variations due to changing weather, which is important for building energymore » management, and for performing risk assessments of energy efficiency investments. This paper employs large-scale building simulation (a total of 3162 runs) to study the weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use with the 30-year (1980 to 2009) Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather data for three types of office buildings at two design efficiency levels, across all 17 ASHRAE climate zones. The simulated results using the AMY data are compared to those from the TMY3 data to determine and analyze the differences. Besides further demonstration, as done by other studies, that actual weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings, the main findings from the current study include: 1) annual weather variation has a greater impact on the peak electricity demand than it does on energy use in buildings; 2) the simulated energy use using the TMY3 weather data is not necessarily representative of the average energy use over a long period, and the TMY3 results can be significantly higher or lower than those from the AMY data; 3) the weather impact is greater for buildings in colder climates than warmer climates; 4) the weather impact on the medium-sized office building was the greatest, followed by the large office and then the small office; and 5) simulated energy savings and peak demand reduction by energy conservation measures using the TMY3 weather data can be significantly underestimated or overestimated. It is crucial to run multi-decade simulations with AMY weather data to fully assess the impact of weather on the long-term performance of buildings, and to evaluate the energy savings potential of energy conservation measures for new and existing buildings from a life cycle perspective.« less

Parametric sensitivity analysis of leachate transport simulations at landfills.

PubMed

Bou-Zeid, E; El-Fadel, M

2004-01-01

This paper presents a case study in simulating leachate generation and transport at a 2000 ton/day landfill facility and assesses leachate migration away from the landfill in order to control associated environmental impacts, particularly on groundwater wells down gradient of the site. The site offers unique characteristics in that it is a former quarry converted to a landfill and is planned to have refuse depths that could reach 100 m, making it one of the deepest in the world. Leachate quantity and potential percolation into the subsurface are estimated using the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model. A three-dimensional subsurface model (PORFLOW) was adopted to simulate ground water flow and contaminant transport away from the site. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis to leachate transport control parameters was also conducted. Sensitivity analysis suggests that changes in partition coefficient, source strength, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, and dispersivity have the most significant impact on model output indicating that these parameters should be carefully selected when similar modeling studies are performed. Copyright 2004 Elsevier Ltd.

Assessing impacts of simulated oil spills on the Northeast Arctic cod fishery.

PubMed

Carroll, JoLynn; Vikebø, Frode; Howell, Daniel; Broch, Ole Jacob; Nepstad, Raymond; Augustine, Starrlight; Skeie, Geir Morten; Bast, Radovan; Juselius, Jonas

2018-01-01

We simulate oil spills of 1500 and 4500m 3 /day lasting 14, 45, and 90days in the spawning grounds of the commercial fish species, Northeast Arctic cod. Modeling the life history of individual fish eggs and larvae, we predict deviations from the historical pattern of recruitment to the adult population due to toxic oil exposures. Reductions in survival for pelagic stages of cod were 0-10%, up to a maximum of 43%. These reductions resulted in a decrease in adult cod biomass of <3% for most scenarios, up to a maximum of 12%. In all simulations, the adult population remained at full reproductive potential with a sufficient number of juveniles surviving to replenish the population. The diverse age distribution helps protect the adult cod population from reductions in a single year's recruitment after a major oil spill. These results provide insights to assist in managing oil spill impacts on fisheries. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The potential impact of hydrogen energy use on the atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ruijven, B. J.; Lamarque, J. F.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Kram, T.; Eerens, H.

2009-04-01

Energy models show very different trajectories for future energy systems (partly as function of future climate policy). One possible option is a transition towards a hydrogen-based energy system. The potential impact of such hydrogen economy on atmospheric emissions is highly uncertain. On the one hand, application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of local air pollutants, like SOx and NOx. On the other hand, emissions of hydrogen from system leakages are expected to change the atmospheric concentrations and behaviour (see also Price et al., 2007; Sanderson et al., 2003; Schultz et al., 2003; Tromp et al., 2003). The uncertainty arises from several sources: the expected use of hydrogen, the intensity of leakages and emissions, and the atmospheric chemical behaviour of hydrogen. Existing studies to the potential impacts of a hydrogen economy on the atmosphere mostly use hydrogen emission scenarios that are based on simple assumptions. This research combines two different modelling efforts to explore the range of impacts of hydrogen on atmospheric chemistry. First, the potential role of hydrogen in the global energy system and the related emissions of hydrogen and other air pollutants are derived from the global energy system simulation model TIMER (van Vuuren, 2007). A set of dedicated scenarios on hydrogen technology development explores the most pessimistic and optimistic cases for hydrogen deployment (van Ruijven et al., 2008; van Ruijven et al., 2007). These scenarios are combined with different assumptions on hydrogen emission factors. Second, the emissions from the TIMER model are linked to the NCAR atmospheric model (Lamarque et al., 2005; Lamarque et al., 2008), in order to determine the impacts on atmospheric chemistry. By combining an energy system model and an atmospheric model, we are able to consistently explore the boundaries of both hydrogen use, emissions and impacts on atmospheric chemistry. References: Lamarque, J.-F., Kiehl, J. T., Hess, P. G., Collins, W. D., Emmons, L. K., Ginoux, P., Luo, C. and Tie, X. X. (2005). "Response of a coupled chemistry-climate model to changes in aerosol emissions: Global impact on the hydrological cycle and the tropospheric burdens of OH, ozone and NOx." Geophysical Research Letters 32(16). Lamarque, J.-F., Kinnison, D. E., Hess, P. G. and Vitt, F. (2008). "Simulated lower stratospheric trends between 1970 and 2005: identifying the role of climate and composition changes." Journal of Geophysical Research 113(D12301). Price, H., Jaegle, L., Rice, A., Quay, P., Novelli, P. C. and Gammon, R. (2007). "Global budget of molecular hydrogen and its deuterium content: constraints from ground station, cruise, and aircraft observations." Journal of Geophysical Research 112(D22108). Sanderson, M. G., Collins, W. J., Derwent, R. G. and Johnson, C. E. (2003). "Simulation of Global Hydrogen Levels Using a Lagrangian Three-Dimensional Model." Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry 46(1): 15-28. Schultz, M. G., Diehl, T., Brasseur, G. P. and Zittel, W. (2003). "Air Pollution and Climate-Forcing Impacts of a Global Hydrogen Economy." Science 302(5645): 624-627. Tromp, T. K., Shia, R. L., Allen, M., Eiler, J. M. and Yung, Y. L. (2003). "Potential environmental impact of a hydrogen economy on the stratosphere." Science 300(5626): 1740-1742. van Ruijven, B., Hari, L., van Vuuren, D. P. and de Vries, B. (2008). "The potential role of hydrogen in India and Western Europe." Energy Policy 36(5): 1649-1665. van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D. P. and de Vries, B. (2007). "The potential role of hydrogen in energy systems with and without climate policy." International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 32(12): 1655-1672. van Vuuren, D. P. (2007). Energy systems and climate policy. Dept. of Science, Technology and Society, Faculty of Science. Utrecht, Utrecht University: 326.

Mechanical characteristics of plastic base Ports and impact on flushing efficacy.

PubMed

Guiffant, Gérard; Flaud, Patrice; Royon, Laurent; Burnet, Espérie; Merckx, Jacques

2017-01-01

Three types of totally implantable venous access devices, Ports, are currently in use: titanium, plastic (polyoxymethylene, POM), and mixed (titanium base with a POM shell). Physics theory suggests that the interaction between a non-coring needle (NCN, made of stainless steel) and a plastic base would lead to the stronger material (steel) altering the more malleable material (plastic). To investigate whether needle impacts can alter a plastic base's surface, thus potentially reducing flushing efficacy. A Port made of POM was punctured 200 times with a 19-gauge NCN. Following the existing guidelines, the needle tip pricked the base with each puncture. The Port's base was then examined using a two-dimensional optical instrument, and a bi-dimensional numerical simulation using COMSOL ® was performed to investigate potential surface irregularities and their impact on fluid flow. Each needle impact created a hole (mean depth, 0.12 mm) with a small bump beside it (mean height, 0.02 mm) the Reynolds number Re k ≈10. A numerical simulation of the one hole/bump set showed that the flushing efficacy was 60% that of flushing along a flat surface. In clinical practice, the number of times a Port is punctured depends on patient and treatment characteristics, but each needle impact on the plastic base may increase the risk of decreased flushing effectiveness. Therefore, the more a plastic Port is accessed, the greater the risk of microorganisms, blood products, and medication accumulation. Multiple needle impacts created an irregular surface on the Port's base, which decreased flushing efficacy. Clinical investigation is needed to determine whether plastic base Ports are associated with an increased risk of Port infection and occlusion compared to titanium base Ports.

Monte-Carlo simulation of soil carbon measurements by inelastic neutron scattering

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Measuring soil carbon is critical for assessing the potential impact of different land management practices on carbon sequestration. The inelastic neutron scattering (INS) of fast neutrons (with energy around 14 MeV) on carbon-12 nuclei produces gamma rays with energy of 4.43 MeV; this gamma flux ca...

Cotton stage of growth determines sensitivityto 2,4-D

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The impending release of EnlistTM cotton and soybean cultivars likely will increase the use of 2,4-D, which has raised concerns over potential injury to susceptible cotton. An experiment was conducted at 12 locations across the cotton belt during 2013 and 2014 to determine the impact of a simulated...

Results of rainfall simulation to estimate sediment-bound carbon and nitrogen loss from an Atlantic Coastal Plain (USDA) ultisol

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The impact of erosion on soil and carbon loss and redistribution within landscapes is an important component for developing estimates of carbon sequestration potential, management plans to maintain soil quality, and transport of sediment bound agrochemicals. Soils of the Southeastern U.S. Coastal Pl...

EFFECTS OF ELEVATED CO2 AND TEMPERATURE ON THE RESPONSE OF PONDEROSA PINE TO OZONE: A SIMULATION ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

Forests regulate numerous biogeochemical cycles, storing and cycling carbon, water, and nutrients, however, there is concern how climate change, elevated CO2 and tropospheric O3 will affect these processes. We investigated the potential impact of increased O3 in combination wit...

Improving the Resilience of Best Management Practices in a Changing Environment: Urban Stormwater Modeling Studies (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

The purpose of this report is to respond to EPA's identified need for an improved understanding of the potential impacts of changes in long term weather conditions on the occurrence and management of urban stormwater runoff. EPA conducted continuous simulation modeling of the hy...

Mechanical Design and Analysis of a Unilateral Cervical Spinal Cord Contusion Injury Model in Non-Human Primates.

PubMed

Sparrey, Carolyn J; Salegio, Ernesto A; Camisa, William; Tam, Horace; Beattie, Michael S; Bresnahan, Jacqueline C

2016-06-15

Non-human primate (NHP) models of spinal cord injury better reflect human injury and provide a better foundation to evaluate potential treatments and functional outcomes. We combined finite element (FE) and surrogate models with impact data derived from in vivo experiments to define the impact mechanics needed to generate a moderate severity unilateral cervical contusion injury in NHPs (Macaca mulatta). Three independent variables (impactor displacement, alignment, and pre-load) were examined to determine their effects on tissue level stresses and strains. Mechanical measures of peak force, peak displacement, peak energy, and tissue stiffness were analyzed as potential determinants of injury severity. Data generated from FE simulations predicted a lateral shift of the spinal cord at high levels of compression (>64%) during impact. Submillimeter changes in mediolateral impactor position over the midline increased peak impact forces (>50%). Surrogate cords established a 0.5 N pre-load protocol for positioning the impactor tip onto the dural surface to define a consistent dorsoventral baseline position before impact, which corresponded with cerebrospinal fluid displacement and entrapment of the spinal cord against the vertebral canal. Based on our simulations, impactor alignment and pre-load were strong contributors to the variable mechanical and functional outcomes observed in in vivo experiments. Peak displacement of 4 mm after a 0.5N pre-load aligned 0.5-1.0 mm over the midline should result in a moderate severity injury; however, the observed peak force and calculated peak energy and tissue stiffness are required to properly characterize the severity and variability of in vivo NHP contusion injuries.

Understanding the Impacts of Soil, Climate, and Farming Practices on Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration: A Simulation Study in Australia.

PubMed

Godde, Cécile M; Thorburn, Peter J; Biggs, Jody S; Meier, Elizabeth A

2016-01-01

Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils has the capacity to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, as well as to improve soil biological, physical, and chemical properties. The review of literature pertaining to soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics within Australian grain farming systems does not enable us to conclude on the best farming practices to increase or maintain SOC for a specific combination of soil and climate. This study aimed to further explore the complex interactions of soil, climate, and farming practices on SOC. We undertook a modeling study with the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator modeling framework, by combining contrasting Australian soils, climates, and farming practices (crop rotations, and management within rotations, such as fertilization, tillage, and residue management) in a factorial design. This design resulted in the transposition of contrasting soils and climates in our simulations, giving soil-climate combinations that do not occur in the study area to help provide insights into the importance of the climate constraints on SOC. We statistically analyzed the model's outputs to determinate the relative contributions of soil parameters, climate, and farming practices on SOC. The initial SOC content had the largest impact on the value of SOC, followed by the climate and the fertilization practices. These factors explained 66, 18, and 15% of SOC variations, respectively, after 80 years of constant farming practices in the simulation. Tillage and stubble management had the lowest impacts on SOC. This study highlighted the possible negative impact on SOC of a chickpea phase in a wheat-chickpea rotation and the potential positive impact of a cover crop in a sub-tropical climate (QLD, Australia) on SOC. It also showed the complexities in managing to achieve increased SOC, while simultaneously aiming to minimize nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and nitrate leaching in farming systems. The transposition of contrasting soils and climates in our simulations revealed the importance of the climate constraints on SOC.

Understanding the Impacts of Soil, Climate, and Farming Practices on Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration: A Simulation Study in Australia

PubMed Central

Godde, Cécile M.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Biggs, Jody S.; Meier, Elizabeth A.

2016-01-01

Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils has the capacity to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, as well as to improve soil biological, physical, and chemical properties. The review of literature pertaining to soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics within Australian grain farming systems does not enable us to conclude on the best farming practices to increase or maintain SOC for a specific combination of soil and climate. This study aimed to further explore the complex interactions of soil, climate, and farming practices on SOC. We undertook a modeling study with the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator modeling framework, by combining contrasting Australian soils, climates, and farming practices (crop rotations, and management within rotations, such as fertilization, tillage, and residue management) in a factorial design. This design resulted in the transposition of contrasting soils and climates in our simulations, giving soil–climate combinations that do not occur in the study area to help provide insights into the importance of the climate constraints on SOC. We statistically analyzed the model’s outputs to determinate the relative contributions of soil parameters, climate, and farming practices on SOC. The initial SOC content had the largest impact on the value of SOC, followed by the climate and the fertilization practices. These factors explained 66, 18, and 15% of SOC variations, respectively, after 80 years of constant farming practices in the simulation. Tillage and stubble management had the lowest impacts on SOC. This study highlighted the possible negative impact on SOC of a chickpea phase in a wheat–chickpea rotation and the potential positive impact of a cover crop in a sub-tropical climate (QLD, Australia) on SOC. It also showed the complexities in managing to achieve increased SOC, while simultaneously aiming to minimize nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and nitrate leaching in farming systems. The transposition of contrasting soils and climates in our simulations revealed the importance of the climate constraints on SOC. PMID:27242862

Photochemical Grid Modelling Study to Assess Potential Air Quality Impacts Associated with Energy Development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, L. K.; Morris, R. E.; Zapert, J.; Cook, F.; Koo, B.; Rasmussen, D.; Jung, J.; Grant, J.; Johnson, J.; Shah, T.; Pavlovic, T.

2015-12-01

The Colorado Air Resource Management Modeling Study (CARMMS) was funded by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to predict the impacts from future federal and non-federal energy development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico. The study used the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) photochemical grid model (PGM) to quantify potential impacts from energy development from BLM field office planning areas. CAMx source apportionment technology was used to track the impacts from multiple (14) different emissions source regions (i.e. field office areas) within one simulation, as well as to assess the cumulative impact of emissions from all source regions combined. The energy development emissions estimates were for the year 2021 for three different development scenarios: (1) low; (2) high; (3) high with emissions mitigation. Impacts on air quality (AQ) including ozone, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and air quality related values (AQRVs) such as atmospheric deposition, regional haze and changes in Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) of lakes were quantified, and compared to establish threshold levels. In this presentation, we present a brief summary of the how the emission scenarios were developed, we compare the emission totals for each scenario, and then focus on the ozone impacts for each scenario to assess: (1). the difference in potential ozone impacts under the different development scenarios and (2). to establish the sensitivity of the ozone impacts to different emissions levels. Region-wide ozone impacts will be presented as well as impacts at specific locations with ozone monitors.

Towards a methodology to formulate sustainable diets for livestock: accounting for environmental impact in diet formulation.

PubMed

Mackenzie, S G; Leinonen, I; Ferguson, N; Kyriazakis, I

2016-05-28

The objective of this study was to develop a novel methodology that enables pig diets to be formulated explicitly for environmental impact objectives using a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. To achieve this, the following methodological issues had to be addressed: (1) account for environmental impacts caused by both ingredient choice and nutrient excretion, (2) formulate diets for multiple environmental impact objectives and (3) allow flexibility to identify the optimal nutritional composition for each environmental impact objective. An LCA model based on Canadian pig farms was integrated into a diet formulation tool to compare the use of different ingredients in Eastern and Western Canada. By allowing the feed energy content to vary, it was possible to identify the optimum energy density for different environmental impact objectives, while accounting for the expected effect of energy density on feed intake. A least-cost diet was compared with diets formulated to minimise the following objectives: non-renewable resource use, acidification potential, eutrophication potential, global warming potential and a combined environmental impact score (using these four categories). The resulting environmental impacts were compared using parallel Monte Carlo simulations to account for shared uncertainty. When optimising diets to minimise a single environmental impact category, reductions in the said category were observed in all cases. However, this was at the expense of increasing the impact in other categories and higher dietary costs. The methodology can identify nutritional strategies to minimise environmental impacts, such as increasing the nutritional density of the diets, compared with the least-cost formulation.

Linking Climate Suitability, Spread Rates and Host-Impact When Estimating the Potential Costs of Invasive Pests

PubMed Central

Kriticos, Darren J.; Leriche, Agathe; Palmer, David J.; Cook, David C.; Brockerhoff, Eckehard G.; Stephens, Andréa E. A.; Watt, Michael S.

2013-01-01

Biosecurity agencies need robust bioeconomic tools to help inform policy and allocate scarce management resources. They need to estimate the potential for each invasive alien species (IAS) to create negative impacts, so that relative and absolute comparisons can be made. Using pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa sensu lato) as an example, these needs were met by combining species niche modelling, dispersal modelling, host impact and economic modelling. Within its native range (the Mediterranean Basin and adjacent areas), T. pityocampa causes significant defoliation of pines and serious urticating injuries to humans. Such severe impacts overseas have fuelled concerns about its potential impacts, should it be introduced to New Zealand. A stochastic bioeconomic model was used to estimate the impact of PPM invasion in terms of pine production value lost due to a hypothetical invasion of New Zealand by T. pityocampa. The bioeconomic model combines a semi-mechanistic niche model to develop a climate-related damage function, a climate-related forest growth model, and a stochastic spread model to estimate the present value (PV) of an invasion. Simulated invasions indicate that Thaumetopoea pityocampa could reduce New Zealand’s merchantable and total pine stem volume production by 30%, reducing forest production by between NZ$1,550 M to NZ$2,560 M if left untreated. Where T. pityocampa is controlled using aerial application of an insecticide, projected losses in PV were reduced, but still significant (NZ$30 M to NZ$2,210 M). The PV estimates were more sensitive to the efficacy of the spray program than the potential rate of spread of the moth. Our novel bioeconomic method provides a refined means of estimating potential impacts of invasive alien species, taking into account climatic effects on asset values, the potential for pest impacts, and pest spread rates. PMID:23405097

Application of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) to determining science and user requirements for space-based missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atlas, R. M.

2016-12-01

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) provide an effective method for evaluating the potential impact of proposed new observing systems, as well as for evaluating trade-offs in observing system design, and in developing and assessing improved methodology for assimilating new observations. As such, OSSEs can be an important tool for determining science and user requirements, and for incorporating these requirements into the planning for future missions. Detailed OSSEs have been conducted at NASA/ GSFC and NOAA/AOML in collaboration with Simpson Weather Associates and operational data assimilation centers over the last three decades. These OSSEs determined correctly the quantitative potential for several proposed satellite observing systems to improve weather analysis and prediction prior to their launch, evaluated trade-offs in orbits, coverage and accuracy for space-based wind lidars, and were used in the development of the methodology that led to the first beneficial impacts of satellite surface winds on numerical weather prediction. In this talk, the speaker will summarize the development of OSSE methodology, early and current applications of OSSEs and how OSSEs will evolve in order to enhance mission planning.

Collision-induced evaporation of water clusters and contribution of momentum transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, Florent; Berthias, Francis; Feketeová, Linda; Abdoul-Carime, Hassan; Farizon, Bernadette; Farizon, Michel

2017-05-01

The evaporation of water molecules from high-velocity argon atoms impinging on protonated water clusters has been computationally investigated using molecular dynamics simulations with the reactive OSS2 potential to model water clusters and the ZBL pair potential to represent their interaction with the projectile. Swarms of trajectories and an event-by-event analysis reveal the conditions under which a specific number of molecular evaporation events is found one nanosecond after impact, thereby excluding direct knockout events from the analysis. These simulations provide velocity distributions that exhibit two main features, with a major statistical component arising from a global redistribution of the collision energy into intermolecular degrees of freedom, and another minor but non-ergodic feature at high velocities. The latter feature is produced by direct impacts on the peripheral water molecules and reflects a more complete momentum transfer. These two components are consistent with recent experimental measurements and confirm that electronic processes are not explicitly needed to explain the observed non-ergodic behavior. Contribution to the Topical Issue "Dynamics of Systems at the Nanoscale", edited by Andrey Solov'yov and Andrei Korol.

Simulated Impacts of El Nino/Southern Oscillation on United States Water Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Brown, Robert A.; Rosenberg, Norman J.

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation alters global weather patterns with consequences for fresh water quality and supply. ENSO events impact regions and natural resource sectors around the globe. For example, in 1997-98, a strong El Ni?o brought warm ocean temperatures, flooding and record snowfall to the west coast of the US. Research on ENSO events and their impacts has improved long range weather predictions, potentially reducing the damage and economic cost of these anomalous weather patterns. Here, we simulate the impacts of four types of ENSO states on water resources in the conterminous United States. We distinguish between Neutral, El Ni?o,more » La Ni?a and strong El Ni?o years over the period of 1960-1989. Using climate statistics that characterize these ENSO states to drive the HUMUS water resources model, we examine the effects of 'pure' ENSO events, without complications from transition periods. Strong El Ni?o is not simply an amplification of El Ni?o; it leads to strikingly different consequences for climate and water resources.« less

Attention and driving performance modulations due to anger state: Contribution of electroencephalographic data.

PubMed

Techer, Franck; Jallais, Christophe; Corson, Yves; Moreau, Fabien; Ndiaye, Daniel; Piechnick, Bruno; Fort, Alexandra

2017-01-01

Driver internal state, including emotion, can have negative impacts on road safety. Studies have shown that an anger state can provoke aggressive behavior and impair driving performance. Apart from driving, anger can also influence attentional processing and increase the benefits taken from auditory alerts. However, to our knowledge, no prior event-related potentials study assesses this impact on attention during simulated driving. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the impact of anger on attentional processing and its consequences on driving performance. For this purpose, 33 participants completed a simulated driving scenario once in an anger state and once during a control session. Results indicated that anger impacted driving performance and attention, provoking an increase in lateral variations while reducing the amplitude of the visual N1 peak. The observed effects were discussed as a result of high arousal and mind-wandering associated with anger. This kind of physiological data may be used to monitor a driver's internal state and provide specific assistance corresponding to their current needs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Simulation training in the management of obstetric emergencies. A review of the literature].

PubMed

Bogne, V; Kirkpatrick, C; Englert, Y

2014-01-01

To assess the value of simulation based training in the management of obstetric emergencies. A search by keywords: obstetrics, gynecology, simulation, drills, emergency training restricted to randomized trials led to a selection of eight articles. Shoulder dystocia simulation unmasked deficiencies in performing Mc Robert maneuver in nearly 20% of doctors in training as well as ineffective and potentially harmful maneuver such as pressure on the uterine fundus. Delivery of the impacted shoulder improved from 42.9% to 83.3% after simulation training leading to a shorter head to body delivery interval. In postpartum haemorrhage simulation, lack of knowledge on prostaglandins and alkaloids of ergot, delay to transfer the patient to the operating room (82% of cases) and a poor communication between different professionals were identified. Post simulation improvement was seen in knowledge, technical skills, team spirit and structured communication. In severe preeclampsia simulation, mistakes such as injection of undiluted magnesium sulphate, caesarean section on an unstable patient were identified and reduced by 75%. Management of magnesium sulphate toxicity was also improved after simulation training. This review confirms the potential of simulation in training health professionals on management of obstetrics emergencies. Although the integration of this training modality into the curriculum of health care professionals in obstetrics and gynaecology seems beneficial, questions on the cost, the minimum standard of facilities, type of mannequins, human resources and frequency of drills required to achieve the learning objectives remain unanswered.

The Impact of Implementing a Demand Forecasting System into a Low-Income Country’s Supply Chain

PubMed Central

Mueller, Leslie E.; Haidari, Leila A.; Wateska, Angela R.; Phillips, Roslyn J.; Schmitz, Michelle M.; Connor, Diana L.; Norman, Bryan A.; Brown, Shawn T.; Welling, Joel S.; Lee, Bruce Y.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g., ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country’s vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. MATERIALS AND METHODS Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger’s entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. RESULTS Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. DISCUSSION The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. CONCLUSION Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfillment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases direct vaccines. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. PMID:27219341

The impact of implementing a demand forecasting system into a low-income country's supply chain.

PubMed

Mueller, Leslie E; Haidari, Leila A; Wateska, Angela R; Phillips, Roslyn J; Schmitz, Michelle M; Connor, Diana L; Norman, Bryan A; Brown, Shawn T; Welling, Joel S; Lee, Bruce Y

2016-07-12

To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g. adjusting ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country's vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger's entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfilment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrology and Mosquito Population Dynamics around a Hydropower Reservoir in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endo, N.; Eltahir, E. A.

2013-12-01

Malaria is associated with dams because their reservoirs provide mosquitoes, the vector of malaria, with permanent breeding sites. The risk of contracting malaria is likely to be enhanced following the increasing trend of hydropower dam construction to satisfy the expanding energy needs in developing countries. A close examination of its adverse health impacts is critical in the design, construction, and operation phases. We will present results of extensive field studies in 2012 and 2013 around the Koka Reservoir, Ethiopia. The results uncover the importance of reservoir management especially after the rainy seasons. Furthermore, we show the capability of a newly modified hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS (Bomblies et al, 2008), and its potential as a tool for evaluating environmental management strategies to control malaria. HYDREMATS was developed to represent how the hydrology in nearby villages is impacted by the reservoir system, and the role of different types of vector ecologies associated with different Anopheles mosquito species. The hydrology component of HYDREMATS simulates three different mosquito breeding habitats: rain-fed pools, groundwater pools, and shoreline water. The entomology component simulates the life cycles of An. funestus and An. arabiensis, the two main vectors around the reservoir. The model was calibrated over the 2012-2013 period. The impact of reservoir water level management on the mosquito population is explored based on numerical model simulations and field experiments.

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

BackgroundExposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of air pollution and health.MethodsZIP-code level estimates of exposure for six pollutants (CO, NOx, EC, PM2.5, SO4, O3) from 1999 to 2002 in the Atlanta metropolitan area were used to calculate spatial, population (i.e. ambient versus personal), and total exposure measurement error.Empirically determined covariance of pollutant concentration pairs and the associated measurement errors were used to simulate true exposure (exposure without error) from observed exposure. Daily emergency department visits for respiratory diseases were simulated using a Poisson time-series model with a main pollutant RR = 1.05 per interquartile range, and a null association for the copollutant (RR = 1). Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate the impacts of correlated exposure errors of different copollutant pairs.ResultsSubstantial attenuation of RRs due to exposure error was evident in nearly all copollutant pairs studied, ranging from 10 to 40% attenuation for spatial error, 3–85% for population error, and 31–85% for total error. When CO, NOx or EC is the main pollutant, we demonstrated the possibility of false positives, specifically identifying significant, positive associations for copoll

Simulated Waste Testing Of Glycolate Impacts On The 2H-Evaporator System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martino, C. J.

2013-08-13

Glycolic acid is being studied as a total or partial replacement for formic acid in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) feed preparation process. After implementation, the recycle stream from DWPF back to the high-level waste tank farm will contain soluble sodium glycolate. Most of the potential impacts of glycolate in the tank farm were addressed via a literature review, but several outstanding issues remained. This report documents the non-radioactive simulant tests impacts of glycolate on storage and evaporation of Savannah River Site high-level waste. The testing for which non-radioactive simulants could be used involved the following: the partitioning ofmore » glycolate into the evaporator condensate, the impacts of glycolate on metal solubility, and the impacts of glycolate on the formation and dissolution of sodium aluminosilicate scale within the evaporator. The following are among the conclusions from this work: Evaporator condensate did not contain appreciable amounts of glycolate anion. Of all tests, the highest glycolate concentration in the evaporator condensate was 0.38 mg/L. A significant portion of the tests had glycolate concentration in the condensate at less than the limit of quantification (0.1 mg/L). At ambient conditions, evaporator testing did not show significant effects of glycolate on the soluble components in the evaporator concentrates. Testing with sodalite solids and silicon containing solutions did not show significant effects of glycolate on sodium aluminosilicate formation or dissolution.« less

Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

2016-03-01

Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

Modeling the Impact of Baryons on Subhalo Populations with Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadler, Ethan O.; Mao, Yao-Yuan; Wechsler, Risa H.; Garrison-Kimmel, Shea; Wetzel, Andrew

2018-06-01

We identify subhalos in dark matter–only (DMO) zoom-in simulations that are likely to be disrupted due to baryonic effects by using a random forest classifier trained on two hydrodynamic simulations of Milky Way (MW)–mass host halos from the Latte suite of the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. We train our classifier using five properties of each disrupted and surviving subhalo: pericentric distance and scale factor at first pericentric passage after accretion and scale factor, virial mass, and maximum circular velocity at accretion. Our five-property classifier identifies disrupted subhalos in the FIRE simulations with an 85% out-of-bag classification score. We predict surviving subhalo populations in DMO simulations of the FIRE host halos, finding excellent agreement with the hydrodynamic results; in particular, our classifier outperforms DMO zoom-in simulations that include the gravitational potential of the central galactic disk in each hydrodynamic simulation, indicating that it captures both the dynamical effects of a central disk and additional baryonic physics. We also predict surviving subhalo populations for a suite of DMO zoom-in simulations of MW-mass host halos, finding that baryons impact each system consistently and that the predicted amount of subhalo disruption is larger than the host-to-host scatter among the subhalo populations. Although the small size and specific baryonic physics prescription of our training set limits the generality of our results, our work suggests that machine-learning classification algorithms trained on hydrodynamic zoom-in simulations can efficiently predict realistic subhalo populations.

Observing System Simulation Experiments for Fun and Profit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prive, Nikki C.

2015-01-01

Observing System Simulation Experiments can be powerful tools for evaluating and exploring both the behavior of data assimilation systems and the potential impacts of future observing systems. With great power comes great responsibility - given a pure modeling framework, how can we be sure our results are meaningful? The challenges and pitfalls of OSSE calibration and validation will be addressed, as well as issues of incestuousness, selection of appropriate metrics, and experiment design. The use of idealized observational networks to investigate theoretical ideas in a fully complex modeling framework will also be discussed

A Queue Simulation Tool for a High Performance Scientific Computing Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spear, Carrie; McGalliard, James

2007-01-01

The NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS) at the Goddard Space Flight Center provides high performance highly parallel processors, mass storage, and supporting infrastructure to a community of computational Earth and space scientists. Long running (days) and highly parallel (hundreds of CPUs) jobs are common in the workload. NCCS management structures batch queues and allocates resources to optimize system use and prioritize workloads. NCCS technical staff use a locally developed discrete event simulation tool to model the impacts of evolving workloads, potential system upgrades, alternative queue structures and resource allocation policies.

Assessment of the risk due to release of carbon fiber in civil aircraft accidents, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pocinki, L.; Cornell, M. E.; Kaplan, L.

1980-01-01

The risk associated with the potential use of carbon fiber composite material in commercial jet aircraft is investigated. A simulation model developed to generate risk profiles for several airports is described. The risk profiles show the probability that the cost due to accidents in any year exceeds a given amount. The computer model simulates aircraft accidents with fire, release of fibers, their downwind transport and infiltration of buildings, equipment failures, and resulting ecomomic impact. The individual airport results were combined to yield the national risk profile.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chapman, Elaine G.; Barnard, James C.; Rutz, Frederick C.

The potential for air quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating on and between the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss and White Sands Missile Range was investigated. This report details efforts by the staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the Fort Bliss Directorate of Environment in this investigation. Dust emission and dispersion from typical move-out activities occurring on the installations were simulated using the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN. Major assumptions associated with designing the modeling scenarios are summarized and results of simulations conducted under these assumptions are presented for four representative meteorological periods.

Modeling effluent distribution and nitrate transport through an on-site wastewater system.

PubMed

Hassan, G; Reneau, R B; Hagedorn, C; Jantrania, A R

2008-01-01

Properly functioning on-site wastewater systems (OWS) are an integral component of the wastewater system infrastructure necessary to renovate wastewater before it reaches surface or ground waters. There are a large number of factors, including soil hydraulic properties, effluent quality and dispersal, and system design, that affect OWS function. The ability to evaluate these factors using a simulation model would improve the capability to determine the impact of wastewater application on the subsurface soil environment. An existing subsurface drip irrigation system (SDIS) dosed with sequential batch reactor effluent (SBRE) was used in this study. This system has the potential to solve soil and site problems that limit OWS and to reduce the potential for environmental degradation. Soil water potentials (Psi(s)) and nitrate (NO(3)) migration were simulated at 55- and 120-cm depths within and downslope of the SDIS using a two-dimensional code in HYDRUS-3D. Results show that the average measured Psi(s) were -121 and -319 cm, whereas simulated values were -121 and -322 cm at 55- and 120-cm depths, respectively, indicating unsaturated conditions. Average measured NO(3) concentrations were 0.248 and 0.176 mmol N L(-1), whereas simulated values were 0.237 and 0.152 mmol N L(-1) at 55- and 120-cm depths, respectively. Observed unsaturated conditions decreased the potential for NO(3) to migrate in more concentrated plumes away from the SDIS. The agreement (high R(2) values approximately 0.97) between the measured and simulated Psi(s) and NO(3) concentrations indicate that HYDRUS-3D adequately simulated SBRE flow and NO(3) transport through the soil domain under a range of environmental and effluent application conditions.

Diagnosing observed characteristics of the wet season across Africa to identify deficiencies in climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunning, C.; Black, E.; Allan, R. P.

2017-12-01

The seasonality of rainfall over Africa plays a key role in determining socio-economic impacts for agricultural stakeholders, influences energy supply from hydropower, affects the length of the malaria transmission season and impacts surface water supplies. Hence, failure or delays of these rains can lead to significant socio-economic impacts. Diagnosing and interpreting interannual variability and long-term trends in seasonality, and analysing the physical driving mechanisms, requires a robust definition of African precipitation seasonality, applicable to both observational datasets and model simulations. Here we present a methodology for objectively determining the onset and cessation of multiple wet seasons across the whole of Africa. Compatibility with known physical drivers of African rainfall, consistency with indigenous methods, and generally strong agreement between satellite-based rainfall data sets confirm that the method is capturing the correct seasonal progression of African rainfall. Application of this method to observational datasets reveals that over East Africa cessation of the short rains is 5 days earlier in La Nina years, and the failure of the rains and subsequent humanitarian disaster is associated with shorter as well as weaker rainy seasons over this region. The method is used to examine the representation of the seasonality of African precipitation in CMIP5 model simulations. Overall, atmosphere-only and fully coupled CMIP5 historical simulations represent essential aspects of the seasonal cycle; patterns of seasonal progression of the rainy season are captured, for the most part mean model onset/ cessation dates agree with mean observational dates to within 18 days. However, unlike the atmosphere-only simulations, the coupled simulations do not capture the biannual regime over the southern West African coastline, linked to errors in Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature. Application to both observational and climate model datasets, and good agreement with agricultural onset methods, indicates the potential applicability of this method to a variety of meteorological and climate impact studies.

Simulation-based assessment of the impact of fertiliser and herbicide application on freshwater ecosystems at the Three Gorges Reservoir in China.

PubMed

Scholz-Starke, Björn; Bo, Li; Holbach, Andreas; Norra, Stefan; Floehr, Tilman; Hollert, Henner; Roß-Nickoll, Martina; Schäffer, Andreas; Ottermanns, Richard

2018-05-20

Dams have profound impacts on river ecosystems, amongst them inundation of land, altered dynamics of the water body or uprising reservoir backwaters influencing tributary or upstream river sections. Along the outstandingly ecologically important Yangtze River in China, the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is the largest project, covering an area of 1080 km 2 . From the beginning, the dam-project came in for criticism on increasing environmental risks due to sub-merging former industrial and urban areas. We simulated dynamics of biotic and abiotic components of the TGR ecosystem (trophic guilds of aquatic organisms, hydrodynamics, nutrients), as well as the behaviour of the herbicidal substance propanil and its metabolites 3,4-Dichloroaniline (DCA) and 3,3',4,4'-tetrachloroazoxybenzene (TCAB). A modelling environment, provided by the AQUATOX software, was adapted to the specific situation at a tributary reach to the Yangtze river 'Daning River'. As the simulated food web contained several interconnected trophic levels, a significant biomagnification of metabolites was demonstrated by our simulation studies. In particular, newly emerging stagnant downstream sections of tributaries exhibited high probabilities due to accumulating pesticides from upstream sources. The common problem of algal blooms in the TGR-region was addressed by dose-response simulation experiments with essential nutrients. Impacts on structure and abundance of populations of aquatic organisms were shown. However, even high nutrient loads resulted in only slight changes of densities of organisms of all trophic levels. Nevertheless, the probabilities for large-scale algal blooms affecting drinking water quality were considered low because of high flow velocities and discharge rates towards the Yangtze River. We see high potential of simulation-based assessments that provide information for risk managers dealing with whole catchment areas. They are put in the position to differentiate the magnitude of impacts of various factors and decide about the most effective remediation measures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the impact of the Lebanese National Polio Immunization Campaign using a population-based computational model.

PubMed

Alawieh, Ali; Sabra, Zahraa; Langley, E Farris; Bizri, Abdul Rahman; Hamadeh, Randa; Zaraket, Fadi A

2017-11-25

After the re-introduction of poliovirus to Syria in 2013, Lebanon was considered at high transmission risk due to its proximity to Syria and the high number of Syrian refugees. However, after a large-scale national immunization initiative, Lebanon was able to prevent a potential outbreak of polio among nationals and refugees. In this work, we used a computational individual-simulation model to assess the risk of poliovirus threat to Lebanon prior and after the immunization campaign and to quantitatively assess the healthcare impact of the campaign and the required standards that need to be maintained nationally to prevent a future outbreak. Acute poliomyelitis surveillance in Lebanon was along with the design and coverage rate of the recent national polio immunization campaign were reviewed from the records of the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. Lebanese population demographics including Syrian and Palestinian refugees were reviewed to design individual-based models that predicts the consequences of polio spread to Lebanon and evaluate the outcome of immunization campaigns. The model takes into account geographic, demographic and health-related features. Our simulations confirmed the high risk of polio outbreaks in Lebanon within 10 days of case introduction prior to the immunization campaign, and showed that the current immunization campaign significantly reduced the speed of the infection in the event poliomyelitis cases enter the country. A minimum of 90% national immunization coverage was found to be required to prevent exponential propagation of potential transmission. Both surveillance and immunization efforts should be maintained at high standards in Lebanon and other countries in the area to detect and limit any potential outbreak. The use of computational population simulation models can provide a quantitative approach to assess the impact of immunization campaigns and the burden of infectious diseases even in the context of population migration.

Assessing risk of baleen whale hearing loss from seismic surveys: The effect of uncertainty and individual variation.

PubMed

Gedamke, Jason; Gales, Nick; Frydman, Sascha

2011-01-01

The potential for seismic airgun "shots" to cause acoustic trauma in marine mammals is poorly understood. There are just two empirical measurements of temporary threshold shift (TTS) onset levels from airgun-like sounds in odontocetes. Considering these limited data, a model was developed examining the impact of individual variability and uncertainty on risk assessment of baleen whale TTS from seismic surveys. In each of 100 simulations: 10000 "whales" are assigned TTS onset levels accounting for: inter-individual variation; uncertainty over the population's mean; and uncertainty over weighting of odontocete data to obtain baleen whale onset levels. Randomly distributed whales are exposed to one seismic survey passage with cumulative exposure level calculated. In the base scenario, 29% of whales (5th/95th percentiles of 10%/62%) approached to 1-1.2 km range were exposed to levels sufficient for TTS onset. By comparison, no whales are at risk outside 0.6 km when uncertainty and variability are not considered. Potentially "exposure altering" parameters (movement, avoidance, surfacing, and effective quiet) were also simulated. Until more research refines model inputs, the results suggest a reasonable likelihood that whales at a kilometer or more from seismic surveys could potentially be susceptible to TTS and demonstrate that the large impact uncertainty and variability can have on risk assessment.

A knowledge platform to inform on the effects of trawling on benthic communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muntadas, Alba; Lample, Michel; Demestre, Montserrat; Ballé-Béganton, Johanna; de Juan, Silvia; Maynou, Francesc; Bailly, Denis

2018-02-01

For a successful implementation of an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries (EAF) management, it is necessary that all stakeholders involved in fisheries management are aware of the implications of fishing impacts on ecosystems and agree with the adopted measures to mitigate these impacts. In this context, there is a need for tools to share knowledge on the ecosystem effects of fisheries among these stakeholders. When managing bottom trawl fisheries under an EAF framework, one of the main concerns is the direct and indirect consequences of trawling impacts on benthic ecosystems. We developed a platform using the ExtendSim® software with a user-friendly interface that combines a simulation model based on existing knowledge, data collection and representation of predicted trawling impacts on the seabed. The platform aims to be a deliberation support tool for fisheries' stakeholders and, simultaneously, raise public awareness of the need for good benthic community knowledge to appropriately inform EAF management plans. The simulation procedure assumes that trawling affects benthic communities with an intensity that depends on the level of fishing effort exerted on benthic communities and on the habitat characteristics (i.e. sediment grain size). Data to build the simulation comes from epifaunal samples from 18 study sites located in Mediterranean continental shelves subjected to different levels of fishing effort. In this work, we present the simulation outputs of a 50% fishing effort increase (and decrease) in four of the study sites which cover different habitats and different levels of fishing effort. We discuss the platform strengths and weaknesses and potential future developments.

Signal decomposition for surrogate modeling of a constrained ultrasonic design space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Homa, Laura; Sparkman, Daniel; Wertz, John; Welter, John; Aldrin, John C.

2018-04-01

The U.S. Air Force seeks to improve the methods and measures by which the lifecycle of composite structures are managed. Nondestructive evaluation of damage - particularly internal damage resulting from impact - represents a significant input to that improvement. Conventional ultrasound can detect this damage; however, full 3D characterization has not been demonstrated. A proposed approach for robust characterization uses model-based inversion through fitting of simulated results to experimental data. One challenge with this approach is the high computational expense of the forward model to simulate the ultrasonic B-scans for each damage scenario. A potential solution is to construct a surrogate model using a subset of simulated ultrasonic scans built using a highly accurate, computationally expensive forward model. However, the dimensionality of these simulated B-scans makes interpolating between them a difficult and potentially infeasible problem. Thus, we propose using the chirplet decomposition to reduce the dimensionality of the data, and allow for interpolation in the chirplet parameter space. By applying the chirplet decomposition, we are able to extract the salient features in the data and construct a surrogate forward model.

Civil Tiltrotor Feasibility Study for the New York and Washington Terminal Areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stouffer, Virginia; Johnson, Jesse; Gribko, Joana; Yackovetsky, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

NASA tasked LMI to assess the potential contributions of a yet-undeveloped Civil Tiltrotor aircraft (CTR) in improving capacity in the National Airspace System in all weather conditions. The CTRs studied have assumed operating parameters beyond current CTR capabilities. LMI analyzed CTRs three ways: in fast-time terminal area modeling simulations of New York and Washington to determine delay and throughput impacts; in the Integrated Noise Model, to determine local environmental impact; and with an economic model, to determine the price viability of a CTR. The fast-time models encompassed a 250 nmi range and included traffic interactions from local airports. Both the fast-time simulation and the noise model assessed impacts from traffic levels projected for 1999, 2007, and 2017. Results: CTRs can reduce terminal area delays due to concrete congestion in all time frames. The maximum effect, the ratio of CTRs to jets and turboprop aircraft at a subject airport should be optimized. The economic model considered US traffic only and forecasted CTR sales beginning in 2010.

ASCR Workshop on Quantum Computing for Science

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aspuru-Guzik, Alan; Van Dam, Wim; Farhi, Edward

This report details the findings of the DOE ASCR Workshop on Quantum Computing for Science that was organized to assess the viability of quantum computing technologies to meet the computational requirements of the DOE’s science and energy mission, and to identify the potential impact of quantum technologies. The workshop was held on February 17-18, 2015, in Bethesda, MD, to solicit input from members of the quantum computing community. The workshop considered models of quantum computation and programming environments, physical science applications relevant to DOE's science mission as well as quantum simulation, and applied mathematics topics including potential quantum algorithms formore » linear algebra, graph theory, and machine learning. This report summarizes these perspectives into an outlook on the opportunities for quantum computing to impact problems relevant to the DOE’s mission as well as the additional research required to bring quantum computing to the point where it can have such impact.« less

Acute effects of a large bolide impact simulated by a global atmospheric circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Starley L.; Crutzen, P. J.

1988-01-01

The goal is to use a global three-dimensional atmospheric circulation model developed for studies of atmospheric effects of nuclear war to examine the time evolution of atmospheric effects from a large bolide impact. The model allows for dust and NOx injection, atmospheric transport by winds, removal by precipitation, radiative transfer effects, stratospheric ozone chemistry, and nitric acid formation and deposition on a simulated Earth having realistic geography. Researchers assume a modest 2 km-diameter impactor of the type that could have formed the 32 km-diameter impact structure found near Manson, Iowa and dated at roughly 66 Ma. Such an impact would have created on the order of 5 x 10 to the 10th power metric tons of atmospheric dust (about 0.01 g cm(-2) if spread globally) and 1 x 10 to the 37th power molecules of NO, or two orders of magnitude more stratospheric NO than might be produced in a large nuclear war. Researchers ignore potential injections of CO2 and wildfire smoke, and assume the direct heating of the atmosphere by impact ejecta on a regional scale is not large compared to absorption of solar energy by dust. Researchers assume an impact site at 45 N in the interior of present day North America.

Nanodroplet impact onto solid platinum surface: Spreading and bouncing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lussier, Daniel; Ventikos, Yiannis

2009-11-01

The impact of droplets onto solid surfaces is found in a huge variety of natural and technological applications, from rain drops splashing on the pavement, to material manufacturing by molten droplet deposition. Taking inspiration from existing microfluidic technologies (i.e. lab-on-chip), there is increasing interest in the use of nanodroplets (D < 100 nm) for a number of applications such as drug delivery and semiconductor device manufacturing. However, as the size of the droplet is reduced into the nanoscale, the direct use of previously obtained macroscopic results is not guaranteed. At the nanoscale, important effects due to the molecular nature of the fluid, thermal fluctuations and reduced dimensionality can play a critical role in determining system dynamics. In this paper we present the results of large-scale, fully atomistic, three-dimensional molecular dynamics (MD) simulation of an argon nanodroplet (D = 18 nm, 54 000 atoms) impact onto a solid platinum surface, using the LAMMPS software package. The fluid argon is modeled using the well-known Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential, while the embedded-atom model (EAM) potential is used for the solid platinum. By varying both the impact velocities (10-1000 m/s) and the wettability of the solid surface a wide range of impact behaviors is observed, from smooth spreading, to bouncing recoil, pointing towards a wide array of potential applications.

Modeling In-stream Tidal Energy Extraction and Its Potential Environmental Impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Copping, Andrea

In recent years, there has been growing interest in harnessing in-stream tidal energy in response to concerns of increasing energy demand and to mitigate climate change impacts. While many studies have been conducted to assess and map tidal energy resources, efforts for quantifying the associated potential environmental impacts have been limited. This paper presents the development of a tidal turbine module within a three-dimensional unstructured-grid coastal ocean model and its application for assessing the potential environmental impacts associated with tidal energy extraction. The model is used to investigate in-stream tidal energy extraction and associated impacts on estuarine hydrodynamic and biologicalmore » processes in a tidally dominant estuary. A series of numerical experiments with varying numbers and configurations of turbines installed in an idealized estuary were carried out to assess the changes in the hydrodynamics and biological processes due to tidal energy extraction. Model results indicated that a large number of turbines are required to extract the maximum tidal energy and cause significant reduction of the volume flux. Preliminary model results also indicate that extraction of tidal energy increases vertical mixing and decreases flushing rate in a stratified estuary. The tidal turbine model was applied to simulate tidal energy extraction in Puget Sound, a large fjord-like estuary in the Pacific Northwest coast.« less

Computational modeling and simulation of spall fracture in polycrystalline solids by an atomistic-based interfacial zone model

PubMed Central

Lin, Liqiang; Zeng, Xiaowei

2015-01-01

The focus of this work is to investigate spall fracture in polycrystalline materials under high-speed impact loading by using an atomistic-based interfacial zone model. We illustrate that for polycrystalline materials, increases in the potential energy ratio between grain boundaries and grains could cause a fracture transition from intergranular to transgranular mode. We also found out that the spall strength increases when there is a fracture transition from intergranular to transgranular. In addition, analysis of grain size, crystal lattice orientation and impact speed reveals that the spall strength increases as grain size or impact speed increases. PMID:26435546

Core analysis of heterogeneous rocks using experimental observations and digital whole core simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, S. J.; Krevor, S. C.; Agada, S.

2017-12-01

A number of studies have demonstrated the prevalent impact that small-scale rock heterogeneity can have on larger scale flow in multiphase flow systems including petroleum production and CO2sequestration. Larger scale modeling has shown that this has a significant impact on fluid flow and is possibly a significant source of inaccuracy in reservoir simulation. Yet no core analysis protocol has been developed that faithfully represents the impact of these heterogeneities on flow functions used in modeling. Relative permeability is derived from core floods performed at conditions with high flow potential in which the impact of capillary heterogeneity is voided. A more accurate representation would be obtained if measurements were made at flow conditions where the impact of capillary heterogeneity on flow is scaled to be representative of the reservoir system. This, however, is generally impractical due to laboratory constraints and the role of the orientation of the rock heterogeneity. We demonstrate a workflow of combined observations and simulations, in which the impact of capillary heterogeneity may be faithfully represented in the derivation of upscaled flow properties. Laboratory measurements that are a variation of conventional protocols are used for the parameterization of an accurate digital rock model for simulation. The relative permeability at the range of capillary numbers relevant to flow in the reservoir is derived primarily from numerical simulations of core floods that include capillary pressure heterogeneity. This allows flexibility in the orientation of the heterogeneity and in the range of flow rates considered. We demonstrate the approach in which digital rock models have been developed alongside core flood observations for three applications: (1) A Bentheimer sandstone with a simple axial heterogeneity to demonstrate the validity and limitations of the approach, (2) a set of reservoir rocks from the Captain sandstone in the UK North Sea targeted for CO2 storage, and for which the use of capillary pressure hysteresis is necessary, and (3) a secondary CO2-EOR production of residual oil from a Berea sandstone with layered heterogeneities. In all cases the incorporation of heterogeneity is shown to be key to the ultimate derivation of flow properties representative of the reservoir system.

The effects of model composition design choices on high-fidelity simulations of motoneuron recruitment and firing behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, John M.; Elbasiouny, Sherif M.

2018-06-01

Objective. Computational models often require tradeoffs, such as balancing detail with efficiency; yet optimal balance should incorporate sound design features that do not bias the results of the specific scientific question under investigation. The present study examines how model design choices impact simulation results. Approach. We developed a rigorously-validated high-fidelity computational model of the spinal motoneuron pool to study three long-standing model design practices which have yet to be examined for their impact on motoneuron recruitment, firing rate, and force simulations. The practices examined were the use of: (1) generic cell models to simulate different motoneuron types, (2) discrete property ranges for different motoneuron types, and (3) biological homogeneity of cell properties within motoneuron types. Main results. Our results show that each of these practices accentuates conditions of motoneuron recruitment based on the size principle, and minimizes conditions of mixed and reversed recruitment orders, which have been observed in animal and human recordings. Specifically, strict motoneuron orderly size recruitment occurs, but in a compressed range, after which mixed and reverse motoneuron recruitment occurs due to the overlap in electrical properties of different motoneuron types. Additionally, these practices underestimate the motoneuron firing rates and force data simulated by existing models. Significance. Our results indicate that current modeling practices increase conditions of motoneuron recruitment based on the size principle, and decrease conditions of mixed and reversed recruitment order, which, in turn, impacts the predictions made by existing models on motoneuron recruitment, firing rate, and force. Additionally, mixed and reverse motoneuron recruitment generated higher muscle force than orderly size motoneuron recruitment in these simulations and represents one potential scheme to increase muscle efficiency. The examined model design practices, as well as the present results, are applicable to neuronal modeling throughout the nervous system.

The effects of model composition design choices on high-fidelity simulations of motoneuron recruitment and firing behaviors.

PubMed

Allen, John M; Elbasiouny, Sherif M

2018-06-01

Computational models often require tradeoffs, such as balancing detail with efficiency; yet optimal balance should incorporate sound design features that do not bias the results of the specific scientific question under investigation. The present study examines how model design choices impact simulation results. We developed a rigorously-validated high-fidelity computational model of the spinal motoneuron pool to study three long-standing model design practices which have yet to be examined for their impact on motoneuron recruitment, firing rate, and force simulations. The practices examined were the use of: (1) generic cell models to simulate different motoneuron types, (2) discrete property ranges for different motoneuron types, and (3) biological homogeneity of cell properties within motoneuron types. Our results show that each of these practices accentuates conditions of motoneuron recruitment based on the size principle, and minimizes conditions of mixed and reversed recruitment orders, which have been observed in animal and human recordings. Specifically, strict motoneuron orderly size recruitment occurs, but in a compressed range, after which mixed and reverse motoneuron recruitment occurs due to the overlap in electrical properties of different motoneuron types. Additionally, these practices underestimate the motoneuron firing rates and force data simulated by existing models. Our results indicate that current modeling practices increase conditions of motoneuron recruitment based on the size principle, and decrease conditions of mixed and reversed recruitment order, which, in turn, impacts the predictions made by existing models on motoneuron recruitment, firing rate, and force. Additionally, mixed and reverse motoneuron recruitment generated higher muscle force than orderly size motoneuron recruitment in these simulations and represents one potential scheme to increase muscle efficiency. The examined model design practices, as well as the present results, are applicable to neuronal modeling throughout the nervous system.

Simulation of African dust properties and radiative effects during the 2015 SHADOW campaign in Senegal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Péré, J.-C.; Rivellini, L.; Crumeyrolle, S.; Chiapello, I.; Minvielle, F.; Thieuleux, F.; Choël, M.; Popovici, I.

2018-01-01

The aim of this work is to estimate optical and radiative properties of dust aerosols and their potential feedbacks on atmospheric properties over Western Africa for the period 20 March-28 April 2015, by using numerical simulations and different sets of remote-sensing and in-situ measurements. Comparisons of simulations made by the on-line coupled meteorological-chemistry model WRF-CHEM with MODIS, AERONET and in-situ observations result in a general agreement for the spatio-temporal variations of aerosol extinction at both local and regional scales. Simulated SSA reached elevated values between 0.88 and 0.96 along the visible/near-infrared in close agreement with AERONET inversions, suggesting the predominance of dust over Western Africa during this specific period. This predominance of dust is confirmed by in-situ measurements of the aerosol size distribution, fitting well with the aerosols size distribution simulated by WRF-CHEM. The impact of this large dust load on the radiative fluxes leads to large modifications of the shortwave and longwave radiative budget both at the ground and at the top of the atmosphere. In return, the response of the atmosphere to these dust-induced radiative changes is the alteration of the surface air temperature and wind fields, with non-negligible impact on the dust emission and transport.

Structural modification of P-glycoprotein induced by OH radicals: Insights from atomistic simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosravian, N.; Kamaraj, B.; Neyts, E. C.; Bogaerts, A.

2016-02-01

This study reports on the possible effects of OH radical impact on the transmembrane domain 6 of P-glycoprotein, TM6, which plays a crucial role in drug binding in human cells. For the first time, we employ molecular dynamics (MD) simulations based on the self-consistent charge density functional tight binding (SCC-DFTB) method to elucidate the potential sites of fragmentation and mutation in this domain upon impact of OH radicals, and to obtain fundamental information about the underlying reaction mechanisms. Furthermore, we apply non-reactive MD simulations to investigate the long-term effect of this mutation, with possible implications for drug binding. Our simulations indicate that the interaction of OH radicals with TM6 might lead to the breaking of C-C and C-N peptide bonds, which eventually cause fragmentation of TM6. Moreover, according to our simulations, the OH radicals can yield mutation in the aromatic ring of phenylalanine in TM6, which in turn affects its structure. As TM6 plays an important role in the binding of a range of cytotoxic drugs with P-glycoprotein, any changes in its structure are likely to affect the response of the tumor cell in chemotherapy. This is crucial for cancer therapies based on reactive oxygen species, such as plasma treatment.

Modeling the Impact of Drizzle and 3D Cloud Structure on Remote Sensing of Effective Radius

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Platnick, Steven; Zinner, Tobias; Ackerman, S.

2008-01-01

Remote sensing of cloud particle size with passive sensors like MODIS is an important tool for cloud microphysical studies. As a measure of the radiatively relevant droplet size, effective radius can be retrieved with different combinations of visible through shortwave infrared channels. MODIS observations sometimes show significantly larger effective radii in marine boundary layer cloud fields derived from the 1.6 and 2.1 pm channel observations than for 3.7 pm retrievals. Possible explanations range from 3D radiative transport effects and sub-pixel cloud inhomogeneity to the impact of drizzle formation on the droplet distribution. To investigate the potential influence of these factors, we use LES boundary layer cloud simulations in combination with 3D Monte Carlo simulations of MODIS observations. LES simulations of warm cloud spectral microphysics for cases of marine stratus and broken stratocumulus, each for two different values of cloud condensation nuclei density, produce cloud structures comprising droplet size distributions with and without drizzle size drops. In this study, synthetic MODIS observations generated from 3D radiative transport simulations that consider the full droplet size distribution will be generated for each scene. The operational MODIS effective radius retrievals will then be applied to the simulated reflectances and the results compared with the LES microphysics.

The Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study: Insights on System Stress: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bloom, Aaron; Novacheck, Josh

The Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS) explores the operational impacts of the wide spread adoption of wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) resources in North America's Eastern and Quebec Interconnections. We explore the impact of large scale adoption of wind and solar generation on the unit commitment and economic dispatch of the largest coordinated power system in the world by simulating hourly and five-minute operations. Using NREL's high-performance computing capabilities and new methodologies to model operations, we found that the modeled system, as simulated with evolutionary change in 2026, could balance the variability and uncertainty of wind and solar PVmore » at a five-minute level under a variety of conditions. Our simulations achieve instantaneous penetrations that exceed 50% of load while meeting an annual penetration of 30% on an energy basis. The system meets balanced load and supply in all intervals, with modest curtailment, using technologies and practices that are widely available today. However, a variety of the conditions present in these simulations deviate substantially from historical practice. In this work, we analyze potentially stressful system conditions that occur in the simulations and identify opportunities for innovation, regulatory reform, and changes in operating practices that require further analysis to enable the transition to a system with more wind and solar PV.« less

Strength of the interatomic potential derived from angular scans in LEIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Primetzhofer, D.; Markin, S. N.; Draxler, M.; Beikler, R.; Taglauer, E.; Bauer, P.

2008-09-01

Angular scans were performed for a Cu(1 0 0) single crystal and He + ions. The results were compared to MARLOWE, KALYPSO and FAN simulations to obtain information on the interaction potential. The influence of the used evaluation procedure on the deduced scattering potential was investigated. The scattering potential is found to be weaker than what is predicted by an uncorrected TFM potential. It was found that the use of a single screening correction factor is applicable in a wide range of impact parameters. It is further shown that selection of single scattering trajectories and a limitation of information depth to the surface layers is possible for neutral and charge integrated spectra.

Potential impacts of human water management on the European heat wave 2003 using fully integrated bedrock-to-atmosphere simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keune, Jessica; Sulis, Mauro; Kollet, Stefan; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

Recent studies indicate that anthropogenic impacts on the terrestrial water cycle lead to a redistribution of water resources in space and time, can trigger land-atmosphere feedbacks, such as the soil moisture-precipitation feedback, and potentially enhance convection and precipitation. Yet, these studies do not consider the full hydrologic cycle from the bedrock to the atmosphere or apply simplified hydrologic models, neglecting the connection of irrigation to water withdrawal and groundwater depletion. Thus, there is a need to incorporate water resource management in 3D hydrologic models coupled to earth system models. This study addresses the impact of water resource management, i.e. irrigation and groundwater abstraction, on land-atmosphere feedbacks through the terrestrial hydrologic cycle in a physics-based soil-vegetation-atmosphere system simulating 3D groundwater dynamics at the continental scale. The integrated Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform, TerrSysMP, consisting of the three-dimensional subsurface and overland flow model ParFlow, the Community Land Model CLM3.5 and the numerical weather prediction model COSMO of the German Weather Service, is set up over the European CORDEX domain in 0.11° resolution. The model closes the terrestrial water and energy cycles from aquifers into the atmosphere. Anthropogenic impacts are considered by applying actual daily estimates of irrigation and groundwater abstraction from Wada et al. (2012, 2016), as a source at the land surface and explicit removal of groundwater from aquifer storage, respectively. Simulations of the fully coupled system are performed over the 2003 European heat wave and compared to a reference simulation, which does not consider human interactions in the terrestrial water cycle. We study the space and time characteristics and evolution of temperature extremes, and soil moisture and precipitation anomalies influenced by human water management during the heat wave. A first set of simulations utilizes the spectral nudging technique to keep the large-scale circulation consistent to the driving ERA-Interim reanalysis and examines the direct and local feedback pathway, along which irrigation cools the land surface, enhances evapotranspiration and increases the total atmospheric water vapor, which may induce local precipitation. A second set of simulations without spectral nudging addresses the indirect feedback, where the atmospheric circulation is modified indirectly by irrigation. Simulations are evaluated over a range of spatial and temporal scales, i.e. from daily to seasonal variations. Results indicate systematic responses at the land surface, but a strong non-linearity of the local feedback affecting tropospheric processes and the occurrence of precipitation, and hence emphasize the need to integrate human water management in regional climate simulations. References: Wada, Y., L. P. H van Beek, and M. F. P. Bierkens (2012), Nonsustainable groundwater sustaining irrigation: A global assessment, Water Resources Research, 48, W00L06, doi: 10.1029/2011WR010562. Wada, Y., I. E. M. de Graaf, and L. P. H. van Beek (2016), High-resolution modeling of human and climate impacts on global water resources, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 8, 735-763, doi: 10.1002/2015MS000618.

The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut; Brovkin, Victor; Calvin, Kate V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Jones, Chris D.; Lawrence, Peter J.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Pongratz, Julia; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Shevliakova, Elena

2016-09-01

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-management strategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be complementary to simulations requested in the CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations and other CMIP6 MIPs including ScenarioMIP, C4MIP, LS3MIP, and DAMIP. LUMIP includes a two-phase experimental design. Phase one features idealized coupled and land-only model simulations designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate, as well as to quantify model sensitivity to potential land-cover and land-use change. Phase two experiments focus on quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. This paper documents these simulations in detail, explains their rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describes a new subgrid land-use tile data request for selected variables (reporting model output data separately for primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, and urban land-use types). It is essential that modeling groups participating in LUMIP adhere to the experimental design as closely as possible and clearly report how the model experiments were executed.

The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-managementmore » st rategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO 2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be complementary to simulations requested in the CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations and other CMIP6 MIPs including ScenarioMIP, C4MIP, LS3MIP, and DAMIP. LUMIP includes a two-phase experimental design. Phase one features idealized coupled and land-only model simulations designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate, as well as to quantify model sensitivity to potential land-cover and land-use change. Phase two experiments focus on quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. This paper documents these simulations in detail, explains their rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describes a new subgrid land-use tile data request for selected variables (reporting model output data separately for primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, and urban land-use types). It is essential that modeling groups participating in LUMIP adhere to the experimental design as closely as possible and clearly report how the model experiments were executed.« less

The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design

DOE PAGES

Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut; ...

2016-09-02

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-managementmore » st rategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO 2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be complementary to simulations requested in the CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations and other CMIP6 MIPs including ScenarioMIP, C4MIP, LS3MIP, and DAMIP. LUMIP includes a two-phase experimental design. Phase one features idealized coupled and land-only model simulations designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate, as well as to quantify model sensitivity to potential land-cover and land-use change. Phase two experiments focus on quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. This paper documents these simulations in detail, explains their rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describes a new subgrid land-use tile data request for selected variables (reporting model output data separately for primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, and urban land-use types). It is essential that modeling groups participating in LUMIP adhere to the experimental design as closely as possible and clearly report how the model experiments were executed.« less

Simulation in undergraduate paediatric nursing curriculum: Evaluation of a complex 'ward for a day' education program.

PubMed

Gamble, Andree S

2017-03-01

Simulation in health education has been shown to increase confidence, psychomotor and professional skills, and thus positively impact on student preparedness for clinical placement. It is recognised as a valuable tool to expose and engage students in realistic patient care encounters without the potential to cause patient harm. Although inherent challenges exist in the development and implementation of simulation, variability in clinical placement time, availability and quality dictates the need to provide students with learning opportunities they may otherwise not experience. With this, and a myriad of other issues providing the impetus for improved clinical preparation, 28 final semester undergraduate nursing students in a paediatric nursing course were involved in an extended multi-scenario simulated clinical shift prior to clinical placement. The simulation focussed on a complex ward experience, giving students the opportunity to demonstrate a variety of psychomotor skills, decision making, leadership, team work and other professional attributes integral for successful transition into the clinical arena. Evaluation data were collected at 3 intermittent points; post-simulation, post clinical placement, and 3 months after commencing employment as a Registered Nurse. Quantitative and qualitative analysis suggested positive impacts on critical nursing concepts and psychomotor skills resulted for participants in both clinical placement and beyond into the first months of employment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Approach to Modeling Solar Electric Propulsion Vehicles During Long Duration, Near-Earth Orbit Transfers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, David A.; Hojnicki, Jeffrey S.; Sjauw, Waldy K.

2014-01-01

Recent NASA interest in utilizing solar electronic propulsion (SEP) technology to transfer payloads, e.g. from low-Earth orbit (LEO) to higher energy geostationary-Earth orbit (GEO) or to Earth escape, has necessitated the development of high fidelity SEP vehicle models and simulations. These models and simulations need to be capable of capturing vehicle dynamics and sub-system interactions experienced during the transfer trajectories which are typically accomplished with continuous-burn (potentially interrupted by solar eclipse), long duration "spiral out" maneuvers taking several months or more to complete. This paper presents details of an integrated simulation approach achieved by combining a high fidelity vehicle simulation code with a detailed solar array model. The combined simulation tool gives researchers the functionality to study the integrated effects of various vehicle sub-systems (e.g. vehicle guidance, navigation and control (GN&C), electric propulsion system (EP)) with time varying power production. Results from a simulation model of a vehicle with a 50 kW class SEP system using the integrated tool are presented and compared to the results from another simulation model employing a 50 kW end-of-life (EOL) fixed power level assumption. These models simulate a vehicle under three degree of freedom dynamics (i.e. translational dynamics only) and include the effects of a targeting guidance algorithm (providing a "near optimal" transfer) during a LEO to near Earth escape (C (sub 3) = -2.0 km (sup 2) / sec (sup -2) spiral trajectory. The presented results include the impact of the fully integrated, time-varying solar array model (e.g. cumulative array degradation from traversing the Van Allen belts, impact of solar eclipses on the vehicle and the related temperature responses in the solar arrays due to operating in the Earth's thermal environment, high fidelity array power module, etc.); these are used to assess the impact on vehicle performance (i.e. propellant consumption) and transit times.

Modeling the Cost Effectiveness of Malaria Control Interventions in the Highlands of Western Kenya

PubMed Central

Stuckey, Erin M.; Stevenson, Jennifer; Galactionova, Katya; Baidjoe, Amrish Y.; Bousema, Teun; Odongo, Wycliffe; Kariuki, Simon; Drakeley, Chris; Smith, Thomas A.; Cox, Jonathan; Chitnis, Nakul

2014-01-01

Introduction Tools that allow for in silico optimization of available malaria control strategies can assist the decision-making process for prioritizing interventions. The OpenMalaria stochastic simulation modeling platform can be applied to simulate the impact of interventions singly and in combination as implemented in Rachuonyo South District, western Kenya, to support this goal. Methods Combinations of malaria interventions were simulated using a previously-published, validated model of malaria epidemiology and control in the study area. An economic model of the costs of case management and malaria control interventions in Kenya was applied to simulation results and cost-effectiveness of each intervention combination compared to the corresponding simulated outputs of a scenario without interventions. Uncertainty was evaluated by varying health system and intervention delivery parameters. Results The intervention strategy with the greatest simulated health impact employed long lasting insecticide treated net (LLIN) use by 80% of the population, 90% of households covered by indoor residual spraying (IRS) with deployment starting in April, and intermittent screen and treat (IST) of school children using Artemether lumefantrine (AL) with 80% coverage twice per term. However, the current malaria control strategy in the study area including LLIN use of 56% and IRS coverage of 70% was the most cost effective at reducing disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over a five year period. Conclusions All the simulated intervention combinations can be considered cost effective in the context of available resources for health in Kenya. Increasing coverage of vector control interventions has a larger simulated impact compared to adding IST to the current implementation strategy, suggesting that transmission in the study area is not at a level to warrant replacing vector control to a school-based screen and treat program. These results have the potential to assist malaria control program managers in the study area in adding new or changing implementation of current interventions. PMID:25290939

Modeling the cost effectiveness of malaria control interventions in the highlands of western Kenya.

PubMed

Stuckey, Erin M; Stevenson, Jennifer; Galactionova, Katya; Baidjoe, Amrish Y; Bousema, Teun; Odongo, Wycliffe; Kariuki, Simon; Drakeley, Chris; Smith, Thomas A; Cox, Jonathan; Chitnis, Nakul

2014-01-01

Tools that allow for in silico optimization of available malaria control strategies can assist the decision-making process for prioritizing interventions. The OpenMalaria stochastic simulation modeling platform can be applied to simulate the impact of interventions singly and in combination as implemented in Rachuonyo South District, western Kenya, to support this goal. Combinations of malaria interventions were simulated using a previously-published, validated model of malaria epidemiology and control in the study area. An economic model of the costs of case management and malaria control interventions in Kenya was applied to simulation results and cost-effectiveness of each intervention combination compared to the corresponding simulated outputs of a scenario without interventions. Uncertainty was evaluated by varying health system and intervention delivery parameters. The intervention strategy with the greatest simulated health impact employed long lasting insecticide treated net (LLIN) use by 80% of the population, 90% of households covered by indoor residual spraying (IRS) with deployment starting in April, and intermittent screen and treat (IST) of school children using Artemether lumefantrine (AL) with 80% coverage twice per term. However, the current malaria control strategy in the study area including LLIN use of 56% and IRS coverage of 70% was the most cost effective at reducing disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over a five year period. All the simulated intervention combinations can be considered cost effective in the context of available resources for health in Kenya. Increasing coverage of vector control interventions has a larger simulated impact compared to adding IST to the current implementation strategy, suggesting that transmission in the study area is not at a level to warrant replacing vector control to a school-based screen and treat program. These results have the potential to assist malaria control program managers in the study area in adding new or changing implementation of current interventions.

Innovative simulation strategies in education.

PubMed

Aebersold, Michelle; Tschannen, Dana; Bathish, Melissa

2012-01-01

The use of simulation in the undergraduate nursing curriculum is gaining popularity and is becoming a foundation of many nursing programs. The purpose of this paper is to highlight a new simulation teaching strategy, virtual reality (VR) simulation, which capitalizes on the technological skills of the new generation student. This small-scale pilot study focused on improving interpersonal skills in senior level nursing students using VR simulation. In this study, a repeated-measure design was used to evaluate the effectiveness of VR simulation on improving student's performance over a series of two VR scenarios. Using the Emergency Medicine Crisis Resource Management (EMCRM) tool, student performance was evaluated. Overall, the total EMCRM score improved but not significantly. The subscale areas of communication (P = .047, 95% CI: - 1.06, -.007) and professional behavior (P = .003, 95% CI: - 1.12, -.303) did show a significant improvement between the two scenario exposures. Findings from this study show the potential for virtual reality simulations to have an impact on nursing student performance.

Supplemental final environmental impact statement for advanced solid rocket motor testing at Stennis Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

Since the Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) and Record of Decision on the FEIS describing the potential impacts to human health and the environment associated with the program, three factors have caused NASA to initiate additional studies regarding these issues. These factors are: (1) The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) agreed to use the same comprehensive procedures to identify and delineate wetlands; (2) EPA has given NASA further guidance on how best to simulate the exhaust plume from the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor (ASRM) testing through computer modeling, enabling more realistic analysis of emission impacts; and (3) public concerns have been raised concerning short and long term impacts on human health and the environment from ASRM testing.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, F.; Frieler, K.; Warszawski, L.; Lange, S.; Schewe, J.; Reyer, C.; Ostberg, S.; Piontek, F.; Betts, R. A.; Burke, E.; Ciais, P.; Deryng, D.; Ebi, K. L.; Emanuel, K.; Elliott, J. W.; Galbraith, E. D.; Gosling, S.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, J.; Jones, C.; Krysanova, V.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mouratiadou, I.; Popp, A.; Tian, H.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Eddy, T.; Hattermann, F.; Huber, V.; Mengel, M.; Stevanovic, M.; Kirsten, T.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Denvil, S.; Halladay, K.; Suzuki, T.; Lotze, H. K.

2016-12-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

2017-04-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Simulation and Fabrication of Wagon-Wheel-Shaped Piezoelectric Transducer for Raindrop Energy Harvesting Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Chin Hong; Dahari, Zuraini; Jumali, Mohammad Hafizuddin; Mohamed, Khairudin; Mohamed, Julie Juliewatty

2017-03-01

Harvesting vibrational energy from impacting raindrops using piezoelectric material has been proven to be a promising approach for future outdoor applications, providing a good alternative resource that can be applied in outdoor rainy environments. We present herein an optimum novel polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) piezoelectric transducer specifically developed to harvest raindrop energy. The finite-element method was applied for simulation and optimization of the piezoelectric raindrop energy harvester (PREH) using COMSOL Multiphysics software, investigating the electrical potential, surface charge density, and total displacement for different transducer dimensions. According to the simulation results, the structure that generated the highest electrical potential and surface charge density was a wagon-wheel-shaped structure consisting of six spokes with wheel diameter of 30 mm, spoke width of 2 mm, center pad diameter of 6 mm, and thickness of 25 μm. This optimum wagon-wheel-shaped device was then fabricated by spin coating of PVDF, sputtering of aluminum, a poling process, and computer numerical control machining of a polytetrafluoroethylene stand. The fabricated PREH was characterized by x-ray diffraction analysis and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy. Finally, the fabricated PREH was tested under actual rain conditions with an alternating current to direct current converter connected in parallel, revealing that a single cell could generate average peak voltage of 22.5 mV and produce electrical energy of 3.4 nJ from ten impacts in 20 s.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

2017-11-01

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

Compact modeling of total ionizing dose and aging effects in MOS technologies

DOE PAGES

Esqueda, Ivan S.; Barnaby, Hugh J.; King, Michael Patrick

2015-06-18

This paper presents a physics-based compact modeling approach that incorporates the impact of total ionizing dose (TID) and stress-induced defects into simulations of metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) devices and integrated circuits (ICs). This approach utilizes calculations of surface potential (ψs) to capture the charge contribution from oxide trapped charge and interface traps and to describe their impact on MOS electrostatics and device operating characteristics as a function of ionizing radiation exposure and aging effects. The modeling approach is demonstrated for bulk and silicon-on-insulator (SOI) MOS device. The formulation is verified using TCAD simulations and through the comparison of model calculations and experimentalmore » I-V characteristics from irradiated devices. The presented approach is suitable for modeling TID and aging effects in advanced MOS devices and ICs.« less

Simulations of population dynamics of hemlock woolly adelgid and potential impact of biological control agents

Treesearch

Joseph S. Elkinton; Robert T. Trotter; Ann F. Paradis

2011-01-01

The hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) is a small invasive Hemipteran herbivore that threatens the continued presence and abundance of hemlock in eastern North America. Efforts to control the adelgid have focused on the introduction of classical biological control agents. These biological controls include six different species of predatory...

Effects of Artificial Defoliation on the Growth of Cottonwood: Simulation of Cottonwood Leaf Beetle Defoliation

Treesearch

Steven A. Tucker; T. Evan Nebeker; Michael D. Warriner; William D. Jones; T. Keith Beatty

2004-01-01

Populus are among the fastest growing commercial forest trees but are not without problems. Insects and diseases can take their toll. The cottonwood leaf beetle (Chrysomela scripta F.; CLB) is of concern. Although damage by the CLB can result in terminal dieback, reduction in growth, and potential mortality, the impact on ...

Simulating southwestern U.S. desert dust influences on supercell thunderstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerach, David G.; Cotton, William R.

2018-05-01

Three-dimensional numerical simulations were performed to evaluate potential southwestern U.S. dust indirect microphysical and direct radiative impacts on a real severe storms outbreak. Increased solar absorption within the dust plume led to modest increases in pre-storm atmospheric stability at low levels, resulting in weaker convective updrafts and less widespread precipitation. Dust microphysical impacts on convection were minor in comparison, due in part to the lofted dust concentrations being relatively few in number when compared to the background (non-dust) aerosol population. While dust preferentially serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) versus giant CCN had opposing effects on warm rain production, both scenarios resulted in ample supercooled water and subsequent glaciation aloft, yielding larger graupel and hail. Associated latent heating from condensation and freezing contributed little to overall updraft invigoration. With reduced rain production overall, the simulations that included dust effects experienced slightly reduced grid-cumulative precipitation and notably warmer and spatially smaller cold pools. Dust serving as ice nucleating particles did not appear to play a significant role. The presence of dust ultimately reduced the number of supercells produced but allowed for supercell evolution characterized by consistently higher values of relative vertical vorticity within simulated mesocyclones. Dust radiative and microphysical effects were relatively small in magnitude when compared to those from altering the background convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear. It is difficult to generalize such findings from a single event, however, due to a number of case-specific environmental factors. These include the nature of the low-level moisture advection and characteristics of the background aerosol distribution.

Forest Management in Earth System Modelling: a Vertically Discretised Canopy Description for ORCHIDEE and Effects on European Climate Since 1750

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrath, M.; Luyssaert, S.; Naudts, K.; Chen, Y.; Ryder, J.; Otto, J.; Valade, A.

2015-12-01

Forest management has the potential to impact surface physical characteristics to the same degree that changes in land cover do. The impacts of land cover changes on the global climate are well-known. Despite an increasingly detailed understanding of the potential for forest management to affect climate, none of the current generation of Earth system models account for forest management through their land surface modules. We addressed this gap by developing and reparameterizing the ORCHIDEE land surface model to simulate the biogeochemical and biophysical effects of forest management. Through vertical discretization of the forest canopy and corresponding modifications to the energy budget, radiation transfer, and carbon allocation, forest management can now be simulated much more realistically on the global scale. This model was used to explore the effect of forest management on European climate since 1750. Reparameterization was carried out to replace generic forest plant functional types with real tree species, covering the most dominant species across the continent. Historical forest management and land cover maps were created to run the simulations from 1600 until the present day. The model was coupled to the atmospheric model LMDz to explore differences in climate between 1750 and 2010 and attribute those differences to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and concurrent warming, land cover, species composition, and wood extraction. Although Europe's forest are considered a carbon sink in this century, our simulations show the modern forests are still experiencing carbon debt compared to their historical values.

Agent Based Modeling of Air Carrier Behavior for Evaluation of Technology Equipage and Adoption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horio, Brant M.; DeCicco, Anthony H.; Stouffer, Virginia L.; Hasan, Shahab; Rosenbaum, Rebecca L.; Smith, Jeremy C.

2014-01-01

As part of ongoing research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework to assist policymakers in identifying impacts on the U.S. air transportation system (ATS) of potential policies and technology related to the implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This framework, called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS), integrates multiple models into a single process flow to best simulate responses by U.S. commercial airlines and other ATS stakeholders to NextGen-related policies, and in turn, how those responses impact the ATS. Development of this framework required NASA and LMI to create an agent-based model of airline and passenger behavior. This Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS) models airline decisions about tactical airfare and schedule adjustments, and strategic decisions related to fleet assignments, market prices, and equipage. AIRLINE-EVOS models its own heterogeneous population of passenger agents that interact with airlines; this interaction allows the model to simulate the cycle of action-reaction as airlines compete with each other and engage passengers. We validated a baseline configuration of AIRLINE-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments. These experiments demonstrated AIRLINE-EVOS's capabilities in responding to an input price shock in fuel prices, and to equipage challenges in a series of analyses based on potential incentive policies for best equipped best served, optimal-wind routing, and traffic management initiative exemption concepts..

Tsunami hazard potential for the equatorial southwestern Pacific atolls of Tokelau from scenario-based simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orpin, Alan R.; Rickard, Graham J.; Gerring, Peter K.; Lamarche, Geoffroy

2016-05-01

Devastating tsunami over the last decade have significantly heightened awareness of the potential consequences and vulnerability of low-lying Pacific islands and coastal regions. Our appraisal of the potential tsunami hazard for the atolls of the Tokelau Islands is based on a tsunami source-propagation-inundation model using Gerris Flow Solver, adapted from the companion study by Lamarche et al. (2015) for the islands of Wallis and Futuna. We assess whether there is potential for tsunami flooding on any of the village islets from a selection of 14 earthquake-source experiments. These earthquake sources are primarily based on the largest Pacific earthquakes of Mw ≥ 8.1 since 1950 and other large credible sources of tsunami that may impact Tokelau. Earthquake-source location and moment magnitude are related to tsunami-wave amplitudes and tsunami flood depths simulated for each of the three atolls of Tokelau. This approach yields instructive results for a community advisory but is not intended to be fully deterministic. Rather, the underlying aim is to identify credible sources that present the greatest potential to trigger an emergency response. Results from our modelling show that wave fields are channelled by the bathymetry of the Pacific basin in such a way that the swathes of the highest waves sweep immediately northeast of the Tokelau Islands. Our limited simulations suggest that trans-Pacific tsunami from distant earthquake sources to the north of Tokelau pose the most significant inundation threat. In particular, our assumed worst-case scenario for the Kuril Trench generated maximum modelled-wave amplitudes in excess of 1 m, which may last a few hours and include several wave trains. Other sources can impact specific sectors of the atolls, particularly distant earthquakes from Chile and Peru, and regional earthquake sources to the south. Flooding is dependent on the wave orientation and direct alignment to the incoming tsunami. Our "worst-case" tsunami simulations of the Tokelau Islands suggest that dry areas remain around the villages, which are typically built on a high islet. Consistent with the oral history of little or no perceived tsunami threat, simulations from the recent Tohoku and Chile earthquake sources suggest only limited flooding around low-lying islets of the atoll. Where potential tsunami flooding is inferred from the modelling, recommended minimum evacuation heights above local sea level are compiled, with particular attention paid to variations in tsunami flood depth around the atolls, subdivided into directional quadrants around each atoll. However, complex wave behaviours around the atolls, islets, tidal channels and within the lagoons are also observed in our simulations. Wave amplitudes within the lagoons may exceed 50 cm, increasing any inundation and potential hazards on the inner shoreline of the atolls, which in turn may influence evacuation strategies. Our study shows that indicative simulation studies can be achieved even with only basic field information. In part, this is due to the spatially and vertically limited topography of the atoll, short reef flat and steep seaward bathymetry, and the simple depth profile of the lagoon bathymetry.

Implementation of a Marauding Insect Module (MIM, version 1.0) in the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS, version 2.6b4) Dynamic Vegetation-Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landry, J.-S.; Price, D. T.; Ramankutty, N.; Parrott, L.; Matthews, H. D.

2015-12-01

Insects defoliate and kill plants in many ecosystems worldwide. The consequences of these natural processes on terrestrial ecology and nutrient cycling are well established, and their potential climatic effects resulting from modified land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, energy, and water are increasingly being recognized. We developed a Marauding Insect Module (MIM) to quantify, in the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS), the consequences of insect activity on biogeochemical and biogeophysical fluxes, also accounting for the effects of altered vegetation dynamics. MIM can simulate damage from broadleaf defoliators, needleleaf defoliators, and bark beetles, with the resulting impacts being estimated by IBIS based on the new, insect-modified state of the vegetation. MIM further accounts for the physical presence and gradual fall of insect-killed dead standing trees. The design of MIM should facilitate the addition of other insect types besides the ones already included and could guide the development of similar modules for other process-based vegetation models. After describing IBIS-MIM, we illustrate the usefulness of the model by presenting results spanning daily to centennial timescales for vegetation dynamics and cycling of carbon, energy, and water following a simulated outbreak of the mountain pine beetle. We then show that these simulated impacts agree with many previous studies based on field measurements, satellite data, or modelling. MIM and similar tools should therefore be of great value in assessing the wide array of impacts resulting from insect-induced plant damage in the Earth system.

Simulated impacts of mountain pine beetle and wildfire disturbances on forest vegetation composition and carbon stocks in the Southern Rocky Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Caldwell, Megan K.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Briggs, Jenny S.; Cigan, P.W.; Stitt, Susan

2013-01-01

Forests play an important role in sequestering carbon and offsetting anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, but changing disturbance regimes may compromise the capability of forests to store carbon. In the Southern Rocky Mountains, a recent outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae; MPB) has caused levels of tree mortality that are unprecedented in recorded history. To evaluate the long-term impacts of both this insect outbreak and another characteristic disturbance in these forests, high-severity wildfire, we simulated potential changes in species composition and carbon stocks using the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS). Simulations were completed for 3 scenarios (no disturbance, actual MPB infestation, and modeled wildfire) using field data collected in 2010 at 97 plots in the lodgepole pine-dominated forests of eastern Grand County, Colorado, which were heavily impacted by MPB after 2002. Results of the simulations showed that (1) lodgepole pine remained dominant over time in all scenarios, with basal area recovering to pre-disturbance levels 70–80 yr after disturbance; (2) wildfire caused a greater magnitude of change than did MPB in both patterns of succession and distribution of carbon among biomass pools; (3) levels of standing-live carbon returned to pre-disturbance conditions after 40 vs. 50 yr following MPB vs. wildfire disturbance, respectively, but took 120 vs. 150 yr to converge with conditions in the undisturbed scenario. Lodgepole pine forests appear to be relatively resilient to both of the disturbances we modeled, although changes in climate, future disturbance regimes, and other factors may significantly affect future rates of regeneration and ecosystem response.

Simulating the Yield Impacts of Organ-Level Quantitative Trait Loci Associated With Drought Response in Maize: A “Gene-to-Phenotype” Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Chenu, Karine; Chapman, Scott C.; Tardieu, François; McLean, Greg; Welcker, Claude; Hammer, Graeme L.

2009-01-01

Under drought, substantial genotype–environment (G × E) interactions impede breeding progress for yield. Identifying genetic controls associated with yield response is confounded by poor genetic correlations across testing environments. Part of this problem is related to our inability to account for the interplay of genetic controls, physiological traits, and environmental conditions throughout the crop cycle. We propose a modeling approach to bridge this “gene-to-phenotype” gap. For maize under drought, we simulated the impact of quantitative trait loci (QTL) controlling two key processes (leaf and silk elongation) that influence crop growth, water use, and grain yield. Substantial G × E interaction for yield was simulated for hypothetical recombinant inbred lines (RILs) across different seasonal patterns of drought. QTL that accelerated leaf elongation caused an increase in crop leaf area and yield in well-watered or preflowering water deficit conditions, but a reduction in yield under terminal stresses (as such “leafy” genotypes prematurely exhausted the water supply). The QTL impact on yield was substantially enhanced by including pleiotropic effects of these QTL on silk elongation and on consequent grain set. The simulations obtained illustrated the difficulty of interpreting the genetic control of yield for genotypes influenced only by the additive effects of QTL associated with leaf and silk growth. The results highlight the potential of integrative simulation modeling for gene-to-phenotype prediction and for exploiting G × E interactions for complex traits such as drought tolerance. PMID:19786622

Filament winding technique, experiment and simulation analysis on tubular structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quanjin, Ma; Rejab, M. R. M.; Kaige, Jiang; Idris, M. S.; Harith, M. N.

2018-04-01

Filament winding process has emerged as one of the potential composite fabrication processes with lower costs. Filament wound products involve classic axisymmetric parts (pipes, rings, driveshafts, high-pressure vessels and storage tanks), non-axisymmetric parts (prismatic nonround sections and pipe fittings). Based on the 3-axis filament winding machine has been designed with the inexpensive control system, it is completely necessary to make a relative comparison between experiment and simulation on tubular structure. In this technical paper, the aim of this paper is to perform a dry winding experiment using the 3-axis filament winding machine and simulate winding process on the tubular structure using CADWIND software with 30°, 45°, 60° winding angle. The main result indicates that the 3-axis filament winding machine can produce tubular structure with high winding pattern performance with different winding angle. This developed 3-axis winding machine still has weakness compared to CAWIND software simulation results with high axes winding machine about winding pattern, turnaround impact, process error, thickness, friction impact etc. In conclusion, the 3-axis filament winding machine improvements and recommendations come up with its comparison results, which can intuitively understand its limitations and characteristics.

Simulation-optimization of large agro-hydrosystems using a decomposition approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuetze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

2014-05-01

In this contribution a stochastic simulation-optimization framework for decision support for optimal planning and operation of water supply of large agro-hydrosystems is presented. It is based on a decomposition solution strategy which allows for (i) the usage of numerical process models together with efficient Monte Carlo simulations for a reliable estimation of higher quantiles of the minimum agricultural water demand for full and deficit irrigation strategies at small scale (farm level), and (ii) the utilization of the optimization results at small scale for solving water resources management problems at regional scale. As a secondary result of several simulation-optimization runs at the smaller scale stochastic crop-water production functions (SCWPF) for different crops are derived which can be used as a basic tool for assessing the impact of climate variability on risk for potential yield. In addition, microeconomic impacts of climate change and the vulnerability of the agro-ecological systems are evaluated. The developed methodology is demonstrated through its application on a real-world case study for the South Al-Batinah region in the Sultanate of Oman where a coastal aquifer is affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater withdrawal for irrigated agriculture.

Supporting Current Energy Conversion Projects through Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, S. C.; Roberts, J.

2016-02-01

The primary goals of current energy conversion (CEC) technology being developed today are to optimize energy output and minimize environmental impact. CEC turbines generate energy from tidal and current systems and create wakes that interact with turbines located downstream of a device. The placement of devices can greatly influence power generation and structural reliability. CECs can also alter the environment surrounding the turbines, such as flow regimes, sediment dynamics, and water quality. These alterations pose potential stressors to numerous environmental receptors. Software is needed to investigate specific CEC sites to simulate power generation and hydrodynamic responses of a flow through a CEC turbine array so that these potential impacts can be evaluated. Moreover, this software can be used to optimize array layouts that yield the least changes to the environmental (i.e., hydrodynamics, sediment dynamics, and water quality). Through model calibration exercises, simulated wake profiles and turbulence intensities compare favorably to the experimental data and demonstrate the utility and accuracy of a fast-running tool for future siting and analysis of CEC arrays in complex domains. The Delft3D modeling tool facilitates siting of CEC projects through optimization of array layouts and evaluation of potential environmental effect all while provide a common "language" for academics, industry, and regulators to be able to discuss the implications of marine renewable energy projects. Given the enormity of any full-scale marine renewable energy project, it necessarily falls to modeling to evaluate how array operations must be addressed in an environmental impact statement in a way that engenders confidence in the assessment of the CEC array to minimize environmental effects.

Secure Large-Scale Airport Simulations Using Distributed Computational Resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDermott, William J.; Maluf, David A.; Gawdiak, Yuri; Tran, Peter; Clancy, Dan (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

To fully conduct research that will support the far-term concepts, technologies and methods required to improve the safety of Air Transportation a simulation environment of the requisite degree of fidelity must first be in place. The Virtual National Airspace Simulation (VNAS) will provide the underlying infrastructure necessary for such a simulation system. Aerospace-specific knowledge management services such as intelligent data-integration middleware will support the management of information associated with this complex and critically important operational environment. This simulation environment, in conjunction with a distributed network of supercomputers, and high-speed network connections to aircraft, and to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), airline and other data-sources will provide the capability to continuously monitor and measure operational performance against expected performance. The VNAS will also provide the tools to use this performance baseline to obtain a perspective of what is happening today and of the potential impact of proposed changes before they are introduced into the system.

Implantation of Martian Materials in the Inner Solar System by a Mega Impact on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyodo, Ryuki; Genda, Hidenori

2018-04-01

Observations and meteorites indicate that the Martian materials are enigmatically distributed within the inner solar system. A mega impact on Mars creating a Martian hemispheric dichotomy and the Martian moons can potentially eject Martian materials. A recent work has shown that the mega-impact-induced debris is potentially captured as the Martian Trojans and implanted in the asteroid belt. However, the amount, distribution, and composition of the debris has not been studied. Here, using hydrodynamic simulations, we report that a large amount of debris (∼1% of Mars’ mass), including Martian crust/mantle and the impactor’s materials (∼20:80), are ejected by a dichotomy-forming impact, and distributed between ∼0.5–3.0 au. Our result indicates that unmelted Martian mantle debris (∼0.02% of Mars’ mass) can be the source of Martian Trojans, olivine-rich asteroids in the Hungarian region and the main asteroid belt, and some even hit the early Earth. The evidence of a mega impact on Mars would be recorded as a spike of 40Ar–39Ar ages in meteorites. A mega impact can naturally implant Martian mantle materials within the inner solar system.

Skull Flexure from Blast Waves: A Mechanism for Brain Injury with Implications for Helmet Design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, W C; King, M J; Blackman, E G

2009-04-30

Traumatic brain injury [TBI] has become a signature injury of current military conflicts, with debilitating, costly, and long-lasting effects. Although mechanisms by which head impacts cause TBI have been well-researched, the mechanisms by which blasts cause TBI are not understood. From numerical hydrodynamic simulations, we have discovered that non-lethal blasts can induce sufficient skull flexure to generate potentially damaging loads in the brain, even without a head impact. The possibility that this mechanism may contribute to TBI has implications for injury diagnosis and armor design.

Impact of energetic cosmic-ray ions on astrophysical ice grains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainitz, Martin; Anders, Christian; Urbassek, Herbert M.

2017-02-01

Using molecular-dynamics simulation with REAX potentials, we study the consequences of cosmic-ray ion impact on ice grains. The grains are composed of a mixture of H2O, CO2, NH3, and CH3OH molecules. Due to the high energy deposition of the cosmic-ray ion, 5 keV/nm, a strong pressure wave runs through the grain, while the interior of the ion track gasifies. Abundant molecular dissociations occur; reactions of the fragments form a variety of novel molecular product species.

Simulation of climatology and Interannual Variability of Spring Persistent Rains by Meteorological Research Institute Model: Impacts of different horizontal resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Puxi; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei

2016-04-01

The authors evaluated the performance of Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) AGCM3.2 models in the simulations of climatology and interannual variability of the Spring Persistent Rains (SPR) over southeastern China. The possible impacts of different horizontal resolutions were also investigated based on the experiments with three different horizontal resolutions (i.e., 120, 60, and 20km). The model could reasonably reproduce the main rainfall center over southeastern China in boreal spring under the three different resolutions. In comparison with 120 simulation, it revealed that 60km and 20km simulations show the superiority in simulating rainfall centers anchored by the Nanling-Wuyi Mountains, but overestimate rainfall intensity. Water vapor budget diagnosis showed that, the 60km and 20km simulations tended to overestimate the water vapor convergence over southeastern China, which leads to wet biases. In the aspect of interannual variability of SPR, the model could reasonably reproduce the anomalous lower-tropospheric anticyclone in the western North Pacific (WNPAC) and positive precipitation anomalies over southeastern China in El Niño decaying spring. Compared with the 120km resolution, the large positive biases are substantially reduced in the mid and high resolution models which evidently improve the simulation of horizontal moisture advection in El Niño decaying spring. We highlight the importance of developing high resolution climate model as it could potentially improve the climatology and interannual variability of SPR.

Conformational Heterogeneity of the HIV Envelope Glycan Shield.

PubMed

Yang, Mingjun; Huang, Jing; Simon, Raphael; Wang, Lai-Xi; MacKerell, Alexander D

2017-06-30

To better understand the conformational properties of the glycan shield covering the surface of the HIV gp120/gp41 envelope (Env) trimer, and how the glycan shield impacts the accessibility of the underlying protein surface, we performed enhanced sampling molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of a model glycosylated HIV Env protein and related systems. Our simulation studies revealed a conformationally heterogeneous glycan shield with a network of glycan-glycan interactions more extensive than those observed to date. We found that partial preorganization of the glycans potentially favors binding by established broadly neutralizing antibodies; omission of several specific glycans could increase the accessibility of other glycans or regions of the protein surface to antibody or CD4 receptor binding; the number of glycans that can potentially interact with known antibodies is larger than that observed in experimental studies; and specific glycan conformations can maximize or minimize interactions with individual antibodies. More broadly, the enhanced sampling MD simulations described here provide a valuable tool to guide the engineering of specific Env glycoforms for HIV vaccine design.

Computer-aided applications of nanoscale smart materials for biomedical applications.

PubMed

Rakesh, L; Howell, B A; Chai, M; Mueller, A; Kujawski, M; Fan, D; Ravi, S; Slominski, C

2008-10-01

Nanotechnology has the potential to impact the treatment of many diseases that currently plague society: cancer, AIDS, dementia of various kinds and so on. Nanoscale smart materials, such as carbon nanotubes, C(60), dendrimers and cyclodextrins, hold great promise for use in the development of better diagnostics, drug delivery and the alteration of biological function. Although experimentation is being used to explore the potential offered by these materials, it is by its very nature expensive in terms of time, resources and expertise. Insight with respect to the behavior of these materials in the presence of biological entities can be obtained much more rapidly by molecular dynamics simulation. Furthermore, the results of simulation may be used to guide experimentation so that it is much more productive than it might be in the absence of such information. The interactions of several nanoscale structures with biological macromolecules can already be probed effectively using molecular dynamics simulation. The results obtained should form the basis for significant new developments in the treatment of disease.

Towards Better Simulation of US Maize Yield Responses to Climate in the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, B.; Guan, K.; Chen, M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Jin, Z.; Bernacchi, C.; Ainsworth, E. A.; DeLucia, E. H.; Lombardozzi, D. L.; Lu, Y.

2017-12-01

Global food security is undergoing continuing pressure from increased population and climate change despites the potential advancement in breeding and management technologies. Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study the impacts of historical and future climate on regional and global food production, as well as to assess the effectiveness of possible adaptations and their potential feedback to climate. Here we developed an improved maize representation within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) by combining the strengths of both the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) models. Specifically, we modified the maize planting scheme, incorporated the phenology scheme adopted from the APSIM model, added a new carbon allocation scheme into CLM4.5, and improved the estimation of canopy structure parameters including leaf area index (LAI) and canopy height. Unique features of the new model (CLM-APSIM) include more detailed phenology stages, an explicit implementation of the impacts of various abiotic environmental stresses (including nitrogen, water, temperature and heat stresses) on maize phenology and carbon allocation, as well as an explicit simulation of grain number and grain size. We conducted a regional simulation of this new model over the US Corn Belt during 1990 to 2010. The simulated maize yield as well as its responses to climate (growing season mean temperature and precipitation) are benchmarked with data from UADA NASS statistics. Our results show that the CLM-APSIM model outperforms the CLM4.5 in simulating county-level maize yield production and reproduces more realistic yield responses to climate variations than CLM4.5. However, some critical processes (such as crop failure due to frost and inundation and suboptimal growth condition due to biotic stresses) are still missing in both CLM-APSIM and CLM4.5, making the simulated yield responses to climate slightly deviate from the reality. Our results demonstrate that with improved paramterization of crop growth, the ESMs can be powerful tools for realistically simulating agricultural production, which is gaining increasing interests and critical to study of global food security and food-energy-water nexus.

Factors Affecting the Evolution of Hurricane Erin and the Distributions of Hydrometeors: Role of Microphysical Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McFarquhar, Greg M.; Zhang, Henian; Dudhia, Jimy; Halverson, Jeffrey B.; Heymsfield, Gerald; Hood, Robbie; Marks, Frank, Jr.

2003-01-01

Fine-resolution simulations of Hurricane Erin 2001 are conducted using the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model version 3.5 to investigate the role of thermodynamic, boundary layer and microphysical processes in Erin's growth and maintenance, and their effects on the horizontal and vertical distributions of hydrometeors. Through comparison against radar, radiometer, and dropsonde data collected during the Convection and Moisture Experiment 4, it is seen that realistic simulations of Erin are obtained provided that fine resolution simulations with detailed representations of physical processes are conducted. The principle findings of the study are as follows: 1) a new iterative condensation scheme, which limits the unphysical increase of equivalent potential temperature associated with most condensation schemes, increases the horizontal size of the hurricane, decreases its maximum rainfall rate, reduces its intensity, and makes its eye more moist; 2) in general, microphysical parameterization schemes with more categories of hydrometeors produce more intense hurricanes, larger hydrometeor mixing ratios, and more intense updrafts and downdrafts; 3) the choice of coefficients describing hydrometeor fall velocities has as big of an impact on the hurricane simulations as does choice of microphysical parameterization scheme with no clear relationship between fall velocity and hurricane intensity; and 4) in order for a tropical cyclone to adequately intensify, an advanced boundary layer scheme (e.g., Burk-Thompson scheme) must be used to represent boundary layer processes. The impacts of varying simulations on the horizontal and vertical distributions of different categories of hydrometeor species, on equivalent potential temperature, and on storm updrafts and downdrafts are examined to determine how the release of latent heat feedbacks upon the structure of Erin. In general, all simulations tend to overpredict precipitation rate and hydrometeor mixing ratios. The ramifications of these findings for quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) of tropical cyclones are discussed.

Assessing the potential for fish predation to impact zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha): Insight from bioenergetics models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eggleton, M.A.; Miranda, L.E.; Kirk, J.P.

2004-01-01

Rates of annual food consumption and biomass were modeled for several fish species across representative rivers and lakes in eastern North America. Results were combined to assess the relative potential of fish predation to impact zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha). Predicted annual food consumption by fishes in southern waters was over 100% greater than that in northern systems because of warmer annual water temperatures and presumed increases in metabolic demand. Although generally increasing with latitude, biomasses of several key zebra mussel fish predators did not change significantly across latitudes. Biomasses of some less abundant fish predators did increase significantly with latitude, but increases were not of the magnitude to offset predicted decreases in food consumption. Our results generally support the premise that fishes in rivers and lakes of the southern United States (U.S.) have inherently greater potential to impact zebra mussels by predation. Our simulations may provide a partial explanation of why zebra mussel invasions have not been as rapid and widespread in southern U.S. waters compared to the Great Lakes region. ?? Blackwell Munksgaard, 2004.

Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

PubMed

He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

2015-11-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential impacts of climate change on the ecology of dengue and its mosquito vector the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, R. A.; Hayhoe, K.; Presley, S. M.; Allen, L. J. S.; Long, K. R.; Cox, S. B.

2012-09-01

Shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change may have profound impacts on the ecology of certain infectious diseases. We examine the potential impacts of climate change on the transmission and maintenance dynamics of dengue, a resurging mosquito-vectored infectious disease. In particular, we project changes in dengue season length for three cities: Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL and Lubbock, TX. These cities are located on the edges of the range of the Asian tiger mosquito within the United States of America and were chosen as test cases. We use a disease model that explicitly incorporates mosquito population dynamics and high-resolution climate projections. Based on projected changes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios as simulated by four global climate models, we found that the projected warming shortened mosquito lifespan, which in turn decreased the potential dengue season. These results illustrate the difficulty in predicting how climate change may alter complex systems.

Life cycle assessment as development and decision support tool for wastewater resource recovery technology.

PubMed

Fang, Linda L; Valverde-Pérez, Borja; Damgaard, Anders; Plósz, Benedek Gy; Rygaard, Martin

2016-01-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) has been increasingly used in the field of wastewater treatment where the focus has been to identify environmental trade-offs of current technologies. In a novel approach, we use LCA to support early stage research and development of a biochemical system for wastewater resource recovery. The freshwater and nutrient content of wastewater are recognized as potential valuable resources that can be recovered for beneficial reuse. Both recovery and reuse are intended to address existing environmental concerns, for example, water scarcity and use of non-renewable phosphorus. However, the resource recovery may come at the cost of unintended environmental impacts. One promising recovery system, referred to as TRENS, consists of an enhanced biological phosphorus removal and recovery system (EBP2R) connected to a photobioreactor. Based on a simulation of a full-scale nutrient and water recovery system in its potential operating environment, we assess the potential environmental impacts of such a system using the EASETECH model. In the simulation, recovered water and nutrients are used in scenarios of agricultural irrigation-fertilization and aquifer recharge. In these scenarios, TRENS reduces global warming up to 15% and marine eutrophication impacts up to 9% compared to conventional treatment. This is due to the recovery and reuse of nutrient resources, primarily nitrogen. The key environmental concerns obtained through the LCA are linked to increased human toxicity impacts from the chosen end use of wastewater recovery products. The toxicity impacts are from both heavy metals release associated with land application of recovered nutrients and production of AlCl3, which is required for advanced wastewater treatment prior to aquifer recharge. Perturbation analysis of the LCA pinpointed nutrient substitution and heavy metals content of algae biofertilizer as critical areas for further research if the performance of nutrient recovery systems such as TRENS is to be better characterized. Our study provides valuable feedback to the TRENS developers and identifies the importance of system expansion to include impacts outside the immediate nutrient recovery system itself. The study also show for the first time the successful evaluation of urban-to-agricultural water systems in EASETECH. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Dangerous Climate Velocities from Geoengineering Termination: Potential Biodiversity Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trisos, C.; Gurevitch, J.; Zambri, B.; Xia, L.; Amatulli, G.; Robock, A.

2016-12-01

Geoengineering has been suggested as a potential societal response to the impacts of ongoing global warming. If ongoing mitigation and adaptation measures do not prevent the most dangerous consequences of climate change, it is important to study whether solar radiation management would make the world less dangerous. While impacts of albedo modification on temperature, precipitation, and agriculture have been studied before, here for the first time we investigate its potential ecological impacts. We estimate the speeds marine and terrestrial ecosystems will need to move to remain in their current climate conditions (i.e., climate velocities) in response to the implementation and subsequent termination of geoengineering. We take advantage of climate model simulations conducted using the G4 scenario of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which increased radiative forcing from the RCP4.5 scenario is balanced by a stratospheric aerosol cloud produced by an injection of 5 Tg of SO2 per year into the lower stratosphere for 50 years, and then stopped. The termination of geoengineering is projected to produce a very rapid warming of the climate, resulting in climate velocities much faster than those that will be produced from anthropogenic global warming. Should ongoing geoengineering be terminated abruptly due to society losing the means or will to continue, the resulting ecological impacts, as measured by climate velocities, could be severe for many terrestrial and marine biodiversity hotspots. Thus, the implementation of solar geoengineering represents a potential danger not just to humans, but also to biodiversity globally.

CESM-simulated 21st Century Changes in Large Scale Crop Water Requirements and Yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levis, S.; Badger, A.; Drewniak, B. A.; O'Neill, B. C.; Ren, X.

2014-12-01

We assess potential changes in crop water requirements and corresponding yields relative to the late 20th century in major crop producing regions of the world by using the Community Land Model (CLM) driven with 21st century meteorology from RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations. The RCP4.5 simulation allows us to explore the potential for averted societal impacts when compared to the RCP8.5 simulation. We consider the possibility for increased yields and improved water use efficiency under conditions of elevated atmospheric CO2 due to the CO2 fertilization effect (also known as concentration-carbon feedback). We address uncertainty in the current understanding of plant CO2 fertilization by repeating the simulations with and without the CO2 fertilization effect. Simulations without CO2 fertilization represent the radiative effect of elevated CO2 (i.e., warming) without representing the physiological effect of elevated CO2 (enhanced carbon uptake and increased water use efficiency by plants during photosynthesis). Preliminary results suggest that some plants may suffer from increasing heat and drought in much of the world without the CO2 fertilization effect. On the other hand plants (especially C3) tend to grow more with less water when models include the CO2 fertilization effect. Performing 21st century simulations with and without the CO2 fertilization effect brackets the potential range of outcomes. In this work we use the CLM crop model, which includes specific crop types that differ from the model's default plant functional types in that the crops get planted, harvested, and potentially fertilized and irrigated according to algorithms that attempt to capture human management decisions. We use an updated version of the CLM4.5 that includes cotton, rice, and sugarcane, spring wheat, spring barley, and spring rye, as well as temperate and tropical maize and soybean.

Simulated precipitation diurnal cycles over East Asia using different CAPE-based convective closure schemes in WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ben; Zhou, Yang; Zhang, Yaocun; Huang, Anning; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Lujun

2018-03-01

Closure assumption in convection parameterization is critical for reasonably modeling the precipitation diurnal variation in climate models. This study evaluates the precipitation diurnal cycles over East Asia during the summer of 2008 simulated with three convective available potential energy (CAPE) based closure assumptions, i.e. CAPE-relaxing (CR), quasi-equilibrium (QE), and free-troposphere QE (FTQE) and investigates the impacts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) mixing, advection, and radiation on the simulation by using the weather research and forecasting model. The sensitivity of precipitation diurnal cycle to PBL vertical resolution is also examined. Results show that the precipitation diurnal cycles simulated with different closures all exhibit large biases over land and the simulation with FTQE closure agrees best with observation. In the simulation with QE closure, the intensified PBL mixing after sunrise is responsible for the late-morning peak of convective precipitation, while in the simulation with FTQE closure, convective precipitation is mainly controlled by advection cooling. The relative contributions of different processes to precipitation formation are functions of rainfall intensity. In the simulation with CR closure, the dynamical equilibrium in the free troposphere still can be reached, implying the complex cause-effect relationship between atmospheric motion and convection. For simulations in which total CAPE is consumed for the closures, daytime precipitation decreases with increased PBL resolution because thinner model layer produces lower convection starting layer, leading to stronger downdraft cooling and CAPE consumption. The sensitivity of the diurnal peak time of precipitation to closure assumption can also be modulated by changes in PBL vertical resolution. The results of this study help us better understand the impacts of various processes on the precipitation diurnal cycle simulation.

Consequences of the dynamic triple peak impact factor in Traumatic Brain Injury as Measured with Numerical Simulation.

PubMed

von Holst, Hans; Li, Xiaogai

2013-01-01

There is a lack of knowledge about the direct neuromechanical consequences in traumatic brain injury (TBI) at the scene of accident. In this study we use a finite element model of the human head to study the dynamic response of the brain during the first milliseconds after the impact with velocities of 10, 6, and 2 meters/second (m/s), respectively. The numerical simulation was focused on the external kinetic energy transfer, intracranial pressure (ICP), strain energy density and first principal strain level, and their respective impacts to the brain tissue. We show that the oblique impacts of 10 and 6 m/s resulted in substantial high peaks for the ICP, strain energy density, and first principal strain levels, however, with different patterns and time frames. Also, the 2 m/s impact showed almost no increase in the above mentioned investigated parameters. More importantly, we show that there clearly exists a dynamic triple peak impact factor to the brain tissue immediately after the impact regardless of injury severity associated with different impact velocities. The dynamic triple peak impacts occurred in a sequential manner first showing strain energy density and ICP and then followed by first principal strain. This should open up a new dimension to better understand the complex mechanisms underlying TBI. Thus, it is suggested that the combination of the dynamic triple peak impacts to the brain tissue may interfere with the cerebral metabolism relative to the impact severity thereby having the potential to differentiate between severe and moderate TBI from mild TBI.

Laboratory Simulation of Impacts upon Aluminum Foils of the Stardust Spacecraft: Calibration of Dust Particle Size from Comet Wild 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kearsley, A. T.; Burchell, M. J.; Horz, F.; Cole, M. J.; Schwandt, C. S.

2006-01-01

Metallic aluminium alloy foils exposed on the forward, comet-facing surface of the aerogel tray on the Stardust spacecraft are likely to have been impacted by the same cometary particle population as the dedicated impact sensors and the aerogel collector. The ability of soft aluminium alloy to record hypervelocity impacts as bowl-shaped craters offers an opportunistic substrate for recognition of impacts by particles of a wide potential size range. In contrast to impact surveys conducted on samples from low Earth orbit, the simple encounter geometry for Stardust and Wild 2, with a known and constant spacecraft-particle relative velocity and effective surface-perpendicular impact trajectories, permits closely comparable simulation in laboratory experiments. For a detailed calibration programme we have selected a suite of spherical glass projectiles of uniform density and hardness characteristics, with well-documented particle size range from 10 microns to nearly 100 microns. Light gas gun buckshot firings of these particles at approximately 6km s)exp -1) onto samples of the same foil as employed on Stardust have yielded large numbers of craters. Scanning electron microscopy of both projectiles and impact features has allowed construction of a calibration plot, showing a linear relationship between impacting particle size and impact crater diameter. The close match between our experimental conditions and the Stardust mission encounter parameters should provide another opportunity to measure particle size distributions and fluxes close to the nucleus of Wild 2, independent of the active impact detector instruments aboard the Stardust spacecraft.

Evaluation of the grand-canonical partition function using expanded Wang-Landau simulations. V. Impact of an electric field on the thermodynamic properties and ideality contours of water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desgranges, Caroline; Delhommelle, Jerome

2016-11-01

Using molecular simulation, we assess the impact of an electric field on the properties of water, modeled with the SPC/E potential, over a wide range of states and conditions. Electric fields of the order of 0.1 V/Å and beyond are found to have a significant impact on the grand-canonical partition function of water, resulting in shifts in the chemical potential at the vapor-liquid coexistence of up to 20%. This, in turn, leads to an increase in the critical temperatures by close to 7% for a field of 0.2 V/Å, to lower vapor pressures, and to much larger entropies of vaporization (by up to 35%). We interpret these results in terms of the greater density change at the transition and of the increased structural order resulting from the applied field. The thermodynamics of compressed liquids and of supercritical water are also analyzed over a wide range of pressures, leading to the determination of the Zeno line and of the curve of ideal enthalpy that span the supercritical region of the phase diagram. Rescaling the phase diagrams obtained for the different field strengths by their respective critical properties allows us to draw a correspondence between these systems for fields of up to 0.2 V/Å.

Energy dissipation by submarine obstacles during landslide impact on reservoir - potentially avoiding catastrophic dam collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafle, Jeevan; Kattel, Parameshwari; Mergili, Martin; Fischer, Jan-Thomas; Tuladhar, Bhadra Man; Pudasaini, Shiva P.

2017-04-01

Dense geophysical mass flows such as landslides, debris flows and debris avalanches may generate super tsunami waves as they impact water bodies such as the sea, hydraulic reservoirs or mountain lakes. Here, we apply a comprehensive and general two-phase, physical-mathematical mass flow model (Pudasaini, 2012) that consists of non-linear and hyperbolic-parabolic partial differential equations for mass and momentum balances, and present novel, high-resolution simulation results for two-phase flows, as a mixture of solid grains and viscous fluid, impacting fluid reservoirs with obstacles. The simulations demonstrate that due to the presence of different obstacles in the water body, the intense flow-obstacle-interaction dramatically reduces the flow momentum resulting in the rapid energy dissipation around the obstacles. With the increase of obstacle height overtopping decreases but, the deflection and capturing (holding) of solid mass increases. In addition, the submarine solid mass is captured by the multiple obstacles and the moving mass decreases both in amount and speed as each obstacle causes the flow to deflect into two streams and also captures a portion of it. This results in distinct tsunami and submarine flow dynamics with multiple surface water and submarine debris waves. This novel approach can be implemented in open source GIS modelling framework r.avaflow, and be applied in hazard mitigation, prevention and relevant engineering or environmental tasks. This might be in particular for process chains, such as debris impacts in lakes and subsequent overtopping. So, as the complex flow-obstacle-interactions strongly and simultaneously dissipate huge energy at impact such installations potentially avoid great threat against the integrity of the dam. References: Pudasaini, S. P. (2012): A general two-phase debris flow model. J. Geophys. Res. 117, F03010, doi: 10.1029/ 2011JF002186.

Characterization of the Space Shuttle Ascent Debris using CFD Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murman, Scott M.; Aftosmis, Michael J.; Rogers, Stuart E.

2005-01-01

After video analysis of space shuttle flight STS-107's ascent showed that an object shed from the bipod-ramp region impacted the left wing, a transport analysis was initiated to determine a credible flight path and impact velocity for the piece of debris. This debris transport analysis was performed both during orbit, and after the subsequent re-entry accident. The analysis provided an accurate prediction of the velocity a large piece of foam bipod ramp would have as it impacted the wing leading edge. This prediction was corroborated by video analysis and fully-coupled CFD/six degree of freedom (DOF) simulations. While the prediction of impact velocity was accurate enough to predict critical damage in this case, one of the recommendations of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) for return-to-flight (RTF) was to analyze the complete debris environment experienced by the shuttle stack on ascent. This includes categorizing all possible debris sources, their probable geometric and aerodynamic characteristics, and their potential for damage. This paper is chiefly concerned with predicting the aerodynamic characteristics of a variety of potential debris sources (insulating foam and cork, nose-cone ablator, ice, ...) for the shuttle ascent configuration using CFD methods. These aerodynamic characteristics are used in the debris transport analysis to predict flight path, impact velocity and angle, and provide statistical variation to perform risk analyses where appropriate. The debris aerodynamic characteristics are difficult to determine using traditional methods, such as static or dynamic test data, due to the scaling requirements of simulating a typical debris event. The use of CFD methods has been a critical element for building confidence in the accuracy of the debris transport code by bridging the gap between existing aerodynamic data and the dynamics of full-scale, in-flight events.

Modelling the impacts of pests and diseases on agricultural systems.

PubMed

Donatelli, M; Magarey, R D; Bregaglio, S; Willocquet, L; Whish, J P M; Savary, S

2017-07-01

The improvement and application of pest and disease models to analyse and predict yield losses including those due to climate change is still a challenge for the scientific community. Applied modelling of crop diseases and pests has mostly targeted the development of support capabilities to schedule scouting or pesticide applications. There is a need for research to both broaden the scope and evaluate the capabilities of pest and disease models. Key research questions not only involve the assessment of the potential effects of climate change on known pathosystems, but also on new pathogens which could alter the (still incompletely documented) impacts of pests and diseases on agricultural systems. Yield loss data collected in various current environments may no longer represent a adequate reference to develop tactical, decision-oriented, models for plant diseases and pests and their impacts, because of the ongoing changes in climate patterns. Process-based agricultural simulation modelling, on the other hand, appears to represent a viable methodology to estimate the impacts of these potential effects. A new generation of tools based on state-of-the-art knowledge and technologies is needed to allow systems analysis including key processes and their dynamics over appropriate suitable range of environmental variables. This paper offers a brief overview of the current state of development in coupling pest and disease models to crop models, and discusses technical and scientific challenges. We propose a five-stage roadmap to improve the simulation of the impacts caused by plant diseases and pests; i) improve the quality and availability of data for model inputs; ii) improve the quality and availability of data for model evaluation; iii) improve the integration with crop models; iv) improve the processes for model evaluation; and v) develop a community of plant pest and disease modelers.

Raindrop Impact, Disaggregation & CO2 emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Xin; Wang, Rui; Hu, Yaxian; Guo, Shengli

2017-04-01

On the Chinese Loess Plateau, heave storms often occur from July to September, which happens to be fallow season. Without protections from crop coverage, soil surface is completely exposed to rainfalls, receives much more enhanced raindrop impact, thus potentially experience advanced disaggregation. After breaking into smaller fragments, and exposing those previously encapsulated soil organic carbon (SOC), soil surface is very likely to release additional CO2 emissions. However, the possible addition of CO2 emissions from fallow season on the Chinese Loess Plateau, and its potential contribution to local carbon balances, have not yet been systematically investigated. In order to compare the effects of raindrop impacts to CO2 emissions on bare soil during fallow season, two erosion plots (100 cm * 40 cm *35 cm) were set up. Both plots were filled with the loess soil. One plot was covered with two meshes (1 mm * 1mm)overlapping each other, to simulate crop coverage; the other plot was directly exposed to raindrops. Both plots were placed underneath simulated rainfalls (intensity of 90 mm h-1), for 5 min and 10 min. After 24 hours post rainfalls, soil moisture and CO2 emissions from both plots were measured every day for one week. Soil particle size distributions from surface soil were also determined to compare the changes of soil composition. Our results show that raindrop impacted soil in general released more CO2 emissions than the covered soil, and this pattern was more pronounced after experiencing longer period of rainfall events (20.6% more after 5 min; 48.3% more after 10 min). This agreed well with the increase of soil particles < 0.01 mm observed on the raindrop impacted soil surface.

Mechanical Design and Analysis of a Unilateral Cervical Spinal Cord Contusion Injury Model in Non-Human Primates

PubMed Central

Salegio, Ernesto A.; Camisa, William; Tam, Horace; Beattie, Michael S.; Bresnahan, Jacqueline C.

2016-01-01

Abstract Non-human primate (NHP) models of spinal cord injury better reflect human injury and provide a better foundation to evaluate potential treatments and functional outcomes. We combined finite element (FE) and surrogate models with impact data derived from in vivo experiments to define the impact mechanics needed to generate a moderate severity unilateral cervical contusion injury in NHPs (Macaca mulatta). Three independent variables (impactor displacement, alignment, and pre-load) were examined to determine their effects on tissue level stresses and strains. Mechanical measures of peak force, peak displacement, peak energy, and tissue stiffness were analyzed as potential determinants of injury severity. Data generated from FE simulations predicted a lateral shift of the spinal cord at high levels of compression (>64%) during impact. Submillimeter changes in mediolateral impactor position over the midline increased peak impact forces (>50%). Surrogate cords established a 0.5 N pre-load protocol for positioning the impactor tip onto the dural surface to define a consistent dorsoventral baseline position before impact, which corresponded with cerebrospinal fluid displacement and entrapment of the spinal cord against the vertebral canal. Based on our simulations, impactor alignment and pre-load were strong contributors to the variable mechanical and functional outcomes observed in in vivo experiments. Peak displacement of 4 mm after a 0.5N pre-load aligned 0.5–1.0 mm over the midline should result in a moderate severity injury; however, the observed peak force and calculated peak energy and tissue stiffness are required to properly characterize the severity and variability of in vivo NHP contusion injuries. PMID:26670940

Simulation climate change impact on runoff and sediment yield in a small watershed in the basque country, northern Spain.

PubMed

Zabaleta, Ane; Meaurio, Maite; Ruiz, Estilita; Antigüedad, Iñaki

2014-01-01

Climate change is likely to have an impact on runoff and fluvial sediments in watersheds. These factors are among those used to characterize water bodies in relation to the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). Hence, it is important to investigate the extent to which climate change may hinder the achievement of the objectives of the WFD. We explored the potential impact of climate change on runoff and sediment yield for the Aixola watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model calibration (2007-2010) and validation (2005-2006) results were rated as satisfactory. Subsequently, simulations were run for four climate change model-scenario combinations based on two general circulation models (CGCM2 and ECHAM4) under two emissions scenarios (A2 and B2) from 2011 to 2100. All combinations predicted that runoff and sediment yield would decrease compared with baseline (1961-1990). Three combinations suggested that runoff and sediments would decrease by 0.13 to 0.45 m s and 0.11 to 0.43 t every year from 2011 to 2100. However, the CGCM2-B2 scenario resulted in an "extremely likely" increase in runoff and sediments of 0.94 m s and 0.57 t every year. These variations in annual sediment yield are closely related to changes in precipitation. The high degree of uncertainty in the results must be considered when assessing potential impacts and making decisions about adaptation measures. Nevertheless, this first attempt to estimate future sediment yields in our region could be a useful starting point to explore future hydrological impacts in the area. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Predicting the impact of feed spacer modification on biofouling by hydraulic characterization and biofouling studies in membrane fouling simulators.

PubMed

Siddiqui, A; Lehmann, S; Bucs, Sz S; Fresquet, M; Fel, L; Prest, E I E C; Ogier, J; Schellenberg, C; van Loosdrecht, M C M; Kruithof, J C; Vrouwenvelder, J S

2017-03-01

Feed spacers are an essential part of spiral-wound reverse osmosis (RO) and nanofiltration (NF) membrane modules. Geometric modification of feed spacers is a potential option to reduce the impact of biofouling on the performance of membrane systems. The objective of this study was to evaluate the biofouling potential of two commercially available reference feed spacers and four modified feed spacers. The spacers were compared on hydraulic characterization and in biofouling studies with membrane fouling simulators (MFSs). The virgin feed spacer was characterized hydraulically by their resistance, measured in terms of feed channel pressure drop, performed by operating MFSs at varying feed water flow rates. Short-term (9 days) biofouling studies were carried out with nutrient dosage to the MFS feed water to accelerate the biofouling rate. Long-term (96 days) biofouling studies were done without nutrient dosage to the MFS feed water. Feed channel pressure drop was monitored and accumulation of active biomass was quantified by adenosine tri phosphate (ATP) determination. The six feed spacers were ranked on pressure drop (hydraulic characterization) and on biofouling impact (biofouling studies). Significantly different trends in hydraulic resistance and biofouling impact for the six feed spacers were observed. The same ranking for biofouling impact on the feed spacers was found for the (i) short-term biofouling study with nutrient dosage and the (ii) long-term biofouling study without nutrient dosage. The ranking for hydraulic resistance for six virgin feed spacers differed significantly from the ranking of the biofouling impact, indicating that hydraulic resistance of clean feed spacers does not predict the hydraulic resistance of biofouled feed spacers. Better geometric design of feed spacers can be a suitable approach to minimize impact of biofouling in spiral wound membrane systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chavas, Daniel R.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.

Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to induce significant climate change over the next century and beyond, but the impacts on society remain highly uncertain. This work examines potential climate change impacts on the productivity of five major crops in northeastern China: canola, corn, potato, rice, and winter wheat. In addition to determining domain-wide trends, the objective is to identify vulnerable and emergent regions under future climate conditions, defined as having a greater than 10% decrease and increase in productivity, respectively. Data from the ICTP RegCM3 regional climate model for baseline (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) periods under A2 scenariomore » conditions are used as input in the EPIC agro-ecosystem simulation model in the domain [30ºN, 108ºE] to [42ºN, 123ºE]. Simulations are performed with and without the enhanced CO2 fertilization effect. Results indicate that aggregate potential productivity (i.e. if the crop is grown everywhere) increases 6.5% for rice, 8.3% for canola, 18.6% for corn, 22.9% for potato, and 24.9% for winter wheat, although with significant spatial variability for each crop. However, absent the enhanced CO2 fertilization effect, potential productivity declines in all cases ranging from 2.5-12%. Interannual yield variability remains constant or declines in all cases except rice. Climate variables are found to be more significant drivers of simulated yield changes than changes in soil properties, except in the case of potato production in the northwest where the effects of wind erosion are more significant. Overall, in the future period corn and winter wheat benefit significantly in the North China Plain, rice remains dominant in the southeast and emerges in the northeast, potato and corn yields become viable in the northwest, and potato yields suffer in the southwest with no other crop emerging as a clear beneficiary from among those simulated in this study.« less

Towards a 3d Spatial Urban Energy Modelling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahu, J.-M.; Koch, A.; Kremers, E.; Murshed, S. M.

2013-09-01

Today's needs to reduce the environmental impact of energy use impose dramatic changes for energy infrastructure and existing demand patterns (e.g. buildings) corresponding to their specific context. In addition, future energy systems are expected to integrate a considerable share of fluctuating power sources and equally a high share of distributed generation of electricity. Energy system models capable of describing such future systems and allowing the simulation of the impact of these developments thus require a spatial representation in order to reflect the local context and the boundary conditions. This paper describes two recent research approaches developed at EIFER in the fields of (a) geo-localised simulation of heat energy demand in cities based on 3D morphological data and (b) spatially explicit Agent-Based Models (ABM) for the simulation of smart grids. 3D city models were used to assess solar potential and heat energy demand of residential buildings which enable cities to target the building refurbishment potentials. Distributed energy systems require innovative modelling techniques where individual components are represented and can interact. With this approach, several smart grid demonstrators were simulated, where heterogeneous models are spatially represented. Coupling 3D geodata with energy system ABMs holds different advantages for both approaches. On one hand, energy system models can be enhanced with high resolution data from 3D city models and their semantic relations. Furthermore, they allow for spatial analysis and visualisation of the results, with emphasis on spatially and structurally correlations among the different layers (e.g. infrastructure, buildings, administrative zones) to provide an integrated approach. On the other hand, 3D models can benefit from more detailed system description of energy infrastructure, representing dynamic phenomena and high resolution models for energy use at component level. The proposed modelling strategies conceptually and practically integrate urban spatial and energy planning approaches. The combined modelling approach that will be developed based on the described sectorial models holds the potential to represent hybrid energy systems coupling distributed generation of electricity with thermal conversion systems.

Maintaining environmental quality while expanding biomass production: Sub-regional U.S. policy simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso; Swinton, S.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.

2013-03-01

This paper evaluates environmental policy effects on ligno-cellulosic biomass production and environ- mental outcomes using an integrated bioeconomic optimization model. The environmental policy integrated climate (EPIC) model is used to simulate crop yields and environmental indicators in current and future potential bioenergy cropping systems based on weather, topographic and soil data. The crop yield and environmental outcome parameters from EPIC are combined with biomass transport costs and economic parameters in a representative farmer profit-maximizing mathematical optimization model. The model is used to predict the impact of alternative policies on biomass production and environmental outcomes. We find that without environmental policy,more » rising biomass prices initially trigger production of annual crop residues, resulting in increased greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, and nutrient losses to surface and ground water. At higher biomass prices, perennial bioenergy crops replace annual crop residues as biomass sources, resulting in lower environmental impacts. Simulations of three environmental policies namely a carbon price, a no-till area subsidy, and a fertilizer tax reveal that only the carbon price policy systematically mitigates environmental impacts. The fertilizer tax is ineffectual and too costly to farmers. The no-till subsidy is effective only at low biomass prices and is too costly to government.« less

Static metrics of impact for a dynamic problem: The need for smarter tools to guide suicide prevention planning and investment.

PubMed

Page, Andrew; Atkinson, Jo-An; Heffernan, Mark; McDonnell, Geoff; Prodan, Ante; Osgood, Nathaniel; Hickie, Ian

2018-01-01

This study investigates two approaches to estimate the potential impact of a population-level intervention on Australian suicide, to highlight the importance of selecting appropriate analytic approaches for informing evidence-based strategies for suicide prevention. The potential impact of a psychosocial therapy intervention on the incidence of suicide in Australia over the next 10 years was used as a case study to compare the potential impact on suicides averted using: (1) a traditional epidemiological measure of population attributable risk and (2) a dynamic measure of population impact based on a systems science model of suicide that incorporates changes over time. Based on the population preventive fraction, findings suggest that the psychosocial therapy intervention if implemented among all eligible individuals in the Australian population would prevent 5.4% of suicides (or 1936 suicides) over the next 10 years. In comparison, estimates from the dynamic simulation model which accounts for changes in the effect size of the intervention over time, the time taken for the intervention to have an impact in the population, and likely barriers to the uptake and availability of services suggest that the intervention would avert a lower proportion of suicides (between 0.4% and 0.5%) over the same follow-up period. Traditional epidemiological measures used to estimate population health burden have several limitations that are often understated and can lead to unrealistic expectations of the potential impact of evidence-based interventions in real-world settings. This study highlights these limitations and proposes an alternative analytic approach to guide policy and practice decisions to achieve reductions in Australian suicide.

Modeling the Impact of Baryons on Subhalo Populations with Machine Learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nadler, Ethan O.; Mao, Yao -Yuan; Wechsler, Risa H.

Here, we identify subhalos in dark matter–only (DMO) zoom-in simulations that are likely to be disrupted due to baryonic effects by using a random forest classifier trained on two hydrodynamic simulations of Milky Way (MW)–mass host halos from the Latte suite of the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. We train our classifier using five properties of each disrupted and surviving subhalo: pericentric distance and scale factor at first pericentric passage after accretion and scale factor, virial mass, and maximum circular velocity at accretion. Our five-property classifier identifies disrupted subhalos in the FIRE simulations with an 85% out-of-bag classification score.more » We predict surviving subhalo populations in DMO simulations of the FIRE host halos, finding excellent agreement with the hydrodynamic results; in particular, our classifier outperforms DMO zoom-in simulations that include the gravitational potential of the central galactic disk in each hydrodynamic simulation, indicating that it captures both the dynamical effects of a central disk and additional baryonic physics. We also predict surviving subhalo populations for a suite of DMO zoom-in simulations of MW-mass host halos, finding that baryons impact each system consistently and that the predicted amount of subhalo disruption is larger than the host-to-host scatter among the subhalo populations. Although the small size and specific baryonic physics prescription of our training set limits the generality of our results, our work suggests that machine-learning classification algorithms trained on hydrodynamic zoom-in simulations can efficiently predict realistic subhalo populations.« less

Modeling the Impact of Baryons on Subhalo Populations with Machine Learning

DOE PAGES

Nadler, Ethan O.; Mao, Yao -Yuan; Wechsler, Risa H.; ...

2018-06-01

Here, we identify subhalos in dark matter–only (DMO) zoom-in simulations that are likely to be disrupted due to baryonic effects by using a random forest classifier trained on two hydrodynamic simulations of Milky Way (MW)–mass host halos from the Latte suite of the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. We train our classifier using five properties of each disrupted and surviving subhalo: pericentric distance and scale factor at first pericentric passage after accretion and scale factor, virial mass, and maximum circular velocity at accretion. Our five-property classifier identifies disrupted subhalos in the FIRE simulations with an 85% out-of-bag classification score.more » We predict surviving subhalo populations in DMO simulations of the FIRE host halos, finding excellent agreement with the hydrodynamic results; in particular, our classifier outperforms DMO zoom-in simulations that include the gravitational potential of the central galactic disk in each hydrodynamic simulation, indicating that it captures both the dynamical effects of a central disk and additional baryonic physics. We also predict surviving subhalo populations for a suite of DMO zoom-in simulations of MW-mass host halos, finding that baryons impact each system consistently and that the predicted amount of subhalo disruption is larger than the host-to-host scatter among the subhalo populations. Although the small size and specific baryonic physics prescription of our training set limits the generality of our results, our work suggests that machine-learning classification algorithms trained on hydrodynamic zoom-in simulations can efficiently predict realistic subhalo populations.« less

Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somos-Valenzuela, Marcelo A.; Chisolm, Rachel E.; Rivas, Denny S.; Portocarrero, Cesar; McKinney, Daene C.

2016-07-01

One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered by avalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes that may culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previously catastrophic GLOF on 13 December 1941, killing about 1800 people in the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes (1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalanche impact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes; (3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations to determine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results of each process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain, finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. The results of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity and preliminary hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumes ranging from 0.5 to 3 × 106 m3 were simulated, and two scenarios of 15 and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess the potential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalanche events, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated in the lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming moraine. Despite very high discharge rates (up to 63.4 × 103 m3 s-1), the erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming moraine when simulated with a hydro-morphodynamic model using excessively conservative soil characteristics that provide very little erosion resistance. With the current lake level, all three avalanche events result in inundation in Huaraz due to wave overtopping, and the resulting preliminary hazard map shows a total affected area of 2.01 km2, most of which is in the high hazard category. Lowering the lake has the potential to reduce the affected area by up to 35 %, resulting in a smaller portion of the inundated area in the high hazard category.

On the effects of wildfires on precipitation in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sales, Fernando; Okin, Gregory S.; Xue, Yongkang; Dintwe, Kebonye

2018-03-01

This study investigates the impact of wildfire on the climate of Southern Africa. Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer derived burned area fraction data was implemented in a set of simulations to assess primarily the role of wildfire-induced surface changes on monthly precipitation. Two post-fire scenarios are examined namely non-recovering and recovering vegetation scenarios. In the former, burned vegetation fraction remains burned until the end of the simulations, whereas in the latter it is allowed to regrow following a recovery period. Control simulations revealed that the model can dependably capture the monthly precipitation and surface temperature averages in Southern Africa thus providing a reasonable basis against which to assess the impacts of wildfire. In general, both wildfire scenarios have a negative impact on springtime precipitation. September and October were the only months with statistically significant precipitation changes. During these months, precipitation in the region decreases by approximately 13 and 9% in the non-recovering vegetation scenario, and by about 10 and 6% in the recovering vegetation wildfire scenario, respectively. The primary cause of precipitation deficit is the decrease in evapotranspiration resulting from a reduction in surface net radiation. Areas impacted by the precipitation reduction includes the Luanda, Kinshasa, and Brazzaville metropolitan areas, The Angolan Highlands, which are the source of the Okavango Rive, and the Okavango Delta region. This study suggests that a probable intensification in wildfire frequency and extent resulting from projected population increase and global warming in Southern Africa could potentially exacerbate the impacts of wildfires in the region's seasonal precipitation.

Interaction between groundwater and trees in an arid site: Potential impacts of climate variation and groundwater abstraction on trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Lihe; Zhou, Yangxiao; Huang, Jinting; Wenninger, Jochen; Zhang, Eryong; Hou, Guangcai; Dong, Jiaqiu

2015-09-01

The understanding of the interaction between groundwater and trees is vital for sustainable groundwater use and maintenance of a healthy ecosystem in arid regions. The short- and long-term groundwater contribution to tree water use was investigated using the HYDRUS-1D model and stable isotopes. For the short-term simulation, the ratio between the actual transpiration (Ta) and potential transpiration (Tp) approached almost ∼1.0 due to the constant groundwater uptake. The results from the short-term simulation indicated that the groundwater contribution to tree water use ranged between 53% and 56% in the dry season (May-June) and 16-19% in the wet period (August-September). Isotopic analysis indicated that groundwater contributed to 45% of plant water use in the dry season, decreasing to 4-12% during the wet period. Because of canopy interception and transpiration, groundwater recharge only occurred after heavy rainfall and accounted for 3-8% of the total heavy rainfall. For the long-term simulation, Ta/Tp ranged between 0.91 and 1.00 except in 2007 (0.78), when the water table declined because of groundwater abstraction. In the scenario simulation for deep water table conditions caused by anthropogenic activities, Ta/Tp ranged between 0.09 and 0.40 (mean = 0.22) that is significantly lower than the values in the natural conditions. In conclusion, vegetation restoration in arid zones should be cautious as over-planting of trees will decrease the groundwater recharge and potentially cause a rapid drop in water table levels, which in turn may result in the death of planted trees. Trees adapt to arid regions by adopting root patterns that allow soil water uptake by shallow roots and groundwater use by deep roots, thus climatic variation itself may not bring severe negative impact on trees. However, anthropogenic activities, such as groundwater abstraction, will result in significant water table decline that will reduce actual transpiration of trees significantly according to the results from the scenario simulation.

Hybrid Particle-Element Simulation of Impact on Composite Orbital Debris Shields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fahrenthold, Eric P.

2004-01-01

This report describes the development of new numerical methods and new constitutive models for the simulation of hypervelocity impact effects on spacecraft. The research has included parallel implementation of the numerical methods and material models developed under the project. Validation work has included both one dimensional simulations, for comparison with exact solutions, and three dimensional simulations of published hypervelocity impact experiments. The validated formulations have been applied to simulate impact effects in a velocity and kinetic energy regime outside the capabilities of current experimental methods. The research results presented here allow for the expanded use of numerical simulation, as a complement to experimental work, in future design of spacecraft for hypervelocity impact effects.

Dust Plume Modeling at Fort Bliss: Move-Out Operations, Combat Training and Wind Erosion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chapman, Elaine G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Rutz, Frederick C.

2006-09-29

The potential for air-quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating in the training ranges and on the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss was investigated. This report details efforts by the staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the Fort Bliss Directorate of Environment in this investigation. Dust emission and dispersion from typical activities, including move outs and combat training, occurring on the installation were simulated using the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN. Major assumptions associated with designing specific modeling scenarios are summarized, and results from the simulations are presented.

Grid Integrated Distributed PV (GridPV) Version 2.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reno, Matthew J.; Coogan, Kyle

2014-12-01

This manual provides the documentation of the MATLAB toolbox of functions for using OpenDSS to simulate the impact of solar energy on the distribution system. The majority of the functio ns are useful for interfacing OpenDSS and MATLAB, and they are of generic use for commanding OpenDSS from MATLAB and retrieving information from simulations. A set of functions is also included for modeling PV plant output and setting up the PV plant in th e OpenDSS simulation. The toolbox contains functions for modeling the OpenDSS distribution feeder on satellite images with GPS coordinates. Finally, example simulations functions are included tomore » show potential uses of the toolbox functions. Each function i n the toolbox is documented with the function use syntax, full description, function input list, function output list, example use, and example output.« less

The numerical simulation of a high-speed axial flow compressor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mulac, Richard A.; Adamczyk, John J.

1991-01-01

The advancement of high-speed axial-flow multistage compressors is impeded by a lack of detailed flow-field information. Recent development in compressor flow modeling and numerical simulation have the potential to provide needed information in a timely manner. The development of a computer program is described to solve the viscous form of the average-passage equation system for multistage turbomachinery. Programming issues such as in-core versus out-of-core data storage and CPU utilization (parallelization, vectorization, and chaining) are addressed. Code performance is evaluated through the simulation of the first four stages of a five-stage, high-speed, axial-flow compressor. The second part addresses the flow physics which can be obtained from the numerical simulation. In particular, an examination of the endwall flow structure is made, and its impact on blockage distribution assessed.

Modelling potential changes in marine biogeochemistry due to large-scale offshore tidal energy extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Molen, Johan

2015-04-01

Tidal power generation through submerged turbine-type devices is in an advanced stage of testing, and large-scale applications are being planned in areas with high tidal current speeds. The potential impact of such large-scale applications on the hydrography can be investigated using hydrodynamical models. In addition, aspects of the potential impact on the marine ecosystem can be studied using biogeochemical models. In this study, the coupled hydrodynamics-biogeochemistry model GETM-ERSEM is used in a shelf-wide application to investigate the potential impact of large-scale tidal power generation in the Pentland Firth. A scenario representing the currently licensed power extraction suggested i) an average reduction in M2 tidal current velocities of several cm/s within the Pentland Firth, ii) changes in the residual circulation of several mm/s in the vicinity of the Pentland Firth, iii) an increase in M2 tidal amplitude of up to 1 cm to the west of the Pentland Firth, and iv) a reduction of several mm in M2 tidal amplitude along the east coast of the UK. A second scenario representing 10 times the currently licensed power extraction resulted in changes that were approximately 10 times as large. Simulations including the biogeochemistry model for these scenarios are currently in preparation, and first results will be presented at the the conference, aiming at impacts on primary production and benthic production.

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models.

PubMed

Dionisio, Kathie L; Chang, Howard H; Baxter, Lisa K

2016-11-25

Exposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of air pollution and health. ZIP-code level estimates of exposure for six pollutants (CO, NO x , EC, PM 2.5 , SO 4 , O 3 ) from 1999 to 2002 in the Atlanta metropolitan area were used to calculate spatial, population (i.e. ambient versus personal), and total exposure measurement error. Empirically determined covariance of pollutant concentration pairs and the associated measurement errors were used to simulate true exposure (exposure without error) from observed exposure. Daily emergency department visits for respiratory diseases were simulated using a Poisson time-series model with a main pollutant RR = 1.05 per interquartile range, and a null association for the copollutant (RR = 1). Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate the impacts of correlated exposure errors of different copollutant pairs. Substantial attenuation of RRs due to exposure error was evident in nearly all copollutant pairs studied, ranging from 10 to 40% attenuation for spatial error, 3-85% for population error, and 31-85% for total error. When CO, NO x or EC is the main pollutant, we demonstrated the possibility of false positives, specifically identifying significant, positive associations for copollutants based on the estimated type I error rate. The impact of exposure error must be considered when interpreting results of copollutant epidemiologic models, due to the possibility of attenuation of main pollutant RRs and the increased probability of false positives when measurement error is present.

Odour-impact assessment around a landfill site from weather-type classification, complaint inventory and numerical simulation.

PubMed

Chemel, C; Riesenmey, C; Batton-Hubert, M; Vaillant, H

2012-01-01

Gases released from landfill sites into the atmosphere have the potential to cause olfactory nuisances within the surrounding communities. Landfill sites are often located over complex topography for convenience mainly related to waste disposal and environmental masking. Dispersion of odours is strongly conditioned by local atmospheric dynamics. Assessment of odour impacts needs to take into account the variability of local atmospheric dynamics. In this study, we discuss a method to assess odour impacts around a landfill site located over complex terrain in order to provide information to be used subsequently to identify management strategies to reduce olfactory nuisances in the residential neighbourhoods. A weather-type classification is defined in order to identify meteorological conditions under which olfactory nuisances are to be expected. A non-steady state Gaussian model and a full-physics meteorological model are used to predict olfactory nuisances, for both the winter and summer scenarios that lead to the majority of complaints in neighbourhoods surrounding the landfill site. Simulating representative scenarios rather than full years make a high resolution simulation of local atmospheric dynamics in space and time possible. Results underline the key role of local atmospheric dynamics in driving the dispersion of odours. The odour concentration simulated by the full-physics meteorological model is combined with the density of the population in order to calculate an average population exposure for the two scenarios. Results of this study are expected to provide helpful information to develop technical solutions for an effective management of landfill operations, which would reduce odour impacts within the surrounding communities. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the effects of muscle activation on knee, thigh, and hip injuries in frontal crashes using a finite-element model with muscle forces from subject testing and musculoskeletal modeling.

PubMed

Chang, Chia-Yuan; Rupp, Jonathan D; Reed, Matthew P; Hughes, Richard E; Schneider, Lawrence W

2009-11-01

In a previous study, the authors reported on the development of a finite-element model of the midsize male pelvis and lower extremities with lower-extremity musculature that was validated using PMHS knee-impact response data. Knee-impact simulations with this model were performed using forces from four muscles in the lower extremities associated with two-foot bracing reported in the literature to provide preliminary estimates of the effects of lower-extremity muscle activation on knee-thigh-hip injury potential in frontal impacts. The current study addresses a major limitation of these preliminary simulations by using the AnyBody three-dimensional musculoskeletal model to estimate muscle forces produced in 35 muscles in each lower extremity during emergency one-foot braking. To check the predictions of the AnyBody Model, activation levels of twelve major muscles in the hip and lower extremities were measured using surface EMG electrodes on 12 midsize-male subjects performing simulated maximum and 50% of maximum braking in a laboratory seating buck. Comparisons between test results and the predictions of the AnyBody Model when it was used to simulate these same braking tests suggest that the AnyBody model appropriately predicts agonistic muscle activations but under predicts antagonistic muscle activations. Simulations of knee-to-knee-bolster impacts were performed by impacting the knees of the lower-extremity finite element model with and without the muscle forces predicted by the validated AnyBody Model. Results of these simulations confirm previous findings that muscle tension increases knee-impact force by increasing the effective mass of the KTH complex due to tighter coupling of muscle mass to bone. They also indicate that muscle activation preferentially couples mass distal to the hip, thereby accentuating the decrease in femur force from the knee to the hip. However, the reduction in force transmitted from the knee to the hip is offset by the increased force at the knee and by increased compressive forces at the hip due to activation of lower-extremity muscles. As a result, approximately 45% to 60% and 50% to 65% of the force applied to the knee is applied to the hip in the simulations without and with muscle tension, respectively. The simulation results suggest that lower-extremity muscle tension has little effect on the risk of hip injuries, but it increases the bending moments in the femoral shaft, thereby increasing the risk of femoral shaft fractures by 20%-40%. However, these findings may be affected by the inability of the AnyBody Model to appropriately predict antagonistic muscle forces.

High performance hybrid functional Petri net simulations of biological pathway models on CUDA.

PubMed

Chalkidis, Georgios; Nagasaki, Masao; Miyano, Satoru

2011-01-01

Hybrid functional Petri nets are a wide-spread tool for representing and simulating biological models. Due to their potential of providing virtual drug testing environments, biological simulations have a growing impact on pharmaceutical research. Continuous research advancements in biology and medicine lead to exponentially increasing simulation times, thus raising the demand for performance accelerations by efficient and inexpensive parallel computation solutions. Recent developments in the field of general-purpose computation on graphics processing units (GPGPU) enabled the scientific community to port a variety of compute intensive algorithms onto the graphics processing unit (GPU). This work presents the first scheme for mapping biological hybrid functional Petri net models, which can handle both discrete and continuous entities, onto compute unified device architecture (CUDA) enabled GPUs. GPU accelerated simulations are observed to run up to 18 times faster than sequential implementations. Simulating the cell boundary formation by Delta-Notch signaling on a CUDA enabled GPU results in a speedup of approximately 7x for a model containing 1,600 cells.

Alertness, performance and off-duty sleep on 8-hour and 12-hour night shifts in a simulated continuous operations control room setting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, T.L.

A growing number of nuclear power plants in the United States have adopted routine 12-hr shift schedules. Because of the potential impact that extended work shifts could have on safe and efficient power plant operation, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission funded research on 8-hr and 12-hr shifts at the Human Alertness Research Center (HARC) in Boston, Massachusetts. This report describes the research undertaken: a study of simulated 8-hr and 12-hr work shifts that compares alertness, speed, and accuracy at responding to simulator alarms, and relative cognitive performance, self-rated mood and vigor, and sleep-wake patterns of 8-hr versus 12-hr shift workers.

Method for Prediction of the Power Output from Photovoltaic Power Plant under Actual Operating Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obukhov, S. G.; Plotnikov, I. A.; Surzhikova, O. A.; Savkin, K. D.

2017-04-01

Solar photovoltaic technology is one of the most rapidly growing renewable sources of electricity that has practical application in various fields of human activity due to its high availability, huge potential and environmental compatibility. The original simulation model of the photovoltaic power plant has been developed to simulate and investigate the plant operating modes under actual operating conditions. The proposed model considers the impact of the external climatic factors on the solar panel energy characteristics that improves accuracy in the power output prediction. The data obtained through the photovoltaic power plant operation simulation enable a well-reasoned choice of the required capacity for storage devices and determination of the rational algorithms to control the energy complex.

Meteorological and Land Surface Properties Impacting Sea Breeze Extent and Aerosol Distribution in a Dry Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igel, Adele L.; van den Heever, Susan C.; Johnson, Jill S.

2018-01-01

The properties of sea breeze circulations are influenced by a variety of meteorological and geophysical factors that interact with one another. These circulations can redistribute aerosol particles and pollution and therefore can play an important role in local air quality, as well as impact remote sensing. In this study, we select 11 factors that have the potential to impact either the sea breeze circulation properties and/or the spatial distribution of aerosols. Simulations are run to identify which of the 11 factors have the largest influence on the sea breeze properties and aerosol concentrations and to subsequently understand the mean response of these variables to the selected factors. All simulations are designed to be representative of conditions in coastal sub tropical environments and are thus relatively dry, as such they do not support deep convection associated with the sea breeze front. For this dry sea breeze regime, we find that the background wind speed was the most influential factor for the sea breeze propagation, with the soil saturation fraction also being important. For the spatial aerosol distribution, the most important factors were the soil moisture, sea-air temperature difference, and the initial boundary layer height. The importance of these factors seems to be strongly tied to the development of the surface-based mixed layer both ahead of and behind the sea breeze front. This study highlights potential avenues for further research regarding sea breeze dynamics and the impact of sea breeze circulations on pollution dispersion and remote sensing algorithms.

Characterizing potential water quality impacts from soils treated with dust suppressants.

PubMed

Beighley, R Edward; He, Yiping; Valdes, Julio R

2009-01-01

Two separate laboratory experiment series, surface runoff and steady-state seepage, were performed to determine if dust suppressant products can be applied to soils with an expected minimal to no negative impact on water quality. The experiments were designed to mimic arid field conditions and used two soils (clayey and sandy) and six different dust suppressants. The two experiments consisted of: (i) simulated rainfall (intensities of 18, 33, or 61 mm h(-1)) and associated runoff from soil trays at a surface slope of 33%; and (ii) steady-state, constant head seepage through soil columns. Both experiment series involved two product application scenarios and three application ages (i.e., to account for degradation effects) for a total of 126 surface runoff and 80 column experiments. One composite effluent sample was collected from each experiment and analyzed for pH, electrical conductivity, total suspended solids (TSS), total dissolved solids, dissolved oxygen, total organic carbon, nitrate, nitrite, and phosphate. Paired t tests at 1 and 5% levels of significance and project specific data quality objectives are used to compare water quality parameters from treated and untreated soils. Overall, the results from this laboratory scale study suggest that the studied dust suppressants have minimal potential for adverse impacts to selected water quality parameters. The primary impacts were increased TSS for two synthetic products from the surface runoff experiments on both soils. The increase in TSS was not expected based on previous studies and may be attributed to this study's focus on simulating real-world soil agitation/movement at an active construction site subjected to rough grading.

Reconciling Biodiversity Conservation and Timber Production in Mixed Uneven-Aged Mountain Forests: Identification of Ecological Intensification Pathways.

PubMed

Lafond, Valentine; Cordonnier, Thomas; Courbaud, Benoît

2015-11-01

Mixed uneven-aged forests are considered favorable to the provision of multiple ecosystem services and to the conciliation of timber production and biodiversity conservation. However, some forest managers now plan to increase the intensity of thinning and harvesting operations in these forests. Retention measures or gap creation are considered to compensate potential negative impacts on biodiversity. Our objectives were to assess the effect of these management practices on timber production and biodiversity conservation and identify potential compensating effects between these practices, using the concept of ecological intensification as a framework. We performed a simulation study coupling Samsara2, a simulation model designed for spruce-fir uneven-aged mountain forests, an uneven-aged silviculture algorithm, and biodiversity models. We analyzed the effect of parameters related to uneven-aged management practices on timber production, biodiversity, and sustainability indicators. Our study confirmed that the indicators responded differently to management practices, leading to trade-offs situations. Increasing management intensity had negative impacts on several biodiversity indicators, which could be partly compensated by the positive effect of retention measures targeting large trees, non-dominant species, and deadwood. The impact of gap creation was more mitigated, with a positive effect on the diversity of tree sizes and deadwood but a negative impact on the spruce-fir mixing balance and on the diversity of the understory layer. Through the analysis of compensating effects, we finally revealed the existence of possible ecological intensification pathways, i.e., the possibility to increase management intensity while maintaining biodiversity through the promotion of nature-based management principles (gap creation and retention measures).

Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

2015-09-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

Modelling the impact of large dams on flows and hydropower production of the Sekong, Sesan and Srepok Rivers in the Mekong Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piman, T.; Cochrane, T. A.; Arias, M. E.

2013-12-01

Water flow patterns in the Mekong River and its tributaries are changing due to water resources development, particularly as a result of on-going rapid hydropower development of tributaries for economic growth. Local communities and international observers are concerned that alterations of natural flow patterns will have great impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem services, food securing and livelihood in the basin. There is also concern that un-coordinated dam development will have an adverse impact on energy production potential of individual hydropower plants. Of immediate concern is the proposed hydropower development in the transboundary Srepok, Sesan and Srekong (3S) Basin, which contributes up to 20% of the Mekong's annual flows, has a large potential for energy production, and provides critical ecosystem services to local people and the downstream Tonle Sap Lake and the Mekong delta. To assess the magnitude of potential changes in flows and hydropower production, daily flows were simulated over 20 years (1986-2005) using the SWAT and HEC ResSim models for a range of dam development and operations scenarios. Simulations of all current and proposed hydropower development in the 3S basin (41 dams) using an operation scheme to maximize electricity production will increase average dry seasonal flows by 88.1% while average wet seasonal flows decrease by 24.7% when compared to the baseline (no dams) scenario, About 55% of dry season flows changes are caused by the seven largest proposed dams (Lower Srepok 3, Lower Srepok4, Lower Sesan 3, Lower Sesan and Srepok 2, Xekong 5, Xekong 4, and Xe Xou). The total active storage of the existing and ongoing hydropower projects is only 6,616 million m3 while the cumulative active storage of the seven large proposed dams is 17,679 million m3. The Lower Srepok 3 project causes the highest impact on seasonal flow changes. Average energy production of the existing and ongoing hydropower projects is 73.2 GWh/day. Additional benefits from energy production of the seven large proposed dams (33.0 GWh/day) are less than half compared to the cumulative benefits of the exiting and ongoing projects. In total, potential energy production of all dams is 129.1 GWh/day. Cascade dam simulations, under an independent operation regime, result in high electricity production of downstream dams, particularly of small storage dams. Hourly flow alterations, however, can be significant due to intra daily reservoir operations and warrant further study as well as impact of climate change on flows and hydropower operation. Strategic site selection and coordinated reservoir operations between countries and dam operators are necessary to achieve an acceptable level of energy production in the basin and mitigate negative impacts to seasonal flow patterns which sustain downstream ecosystem productivity and livelihoods.

Parametric Crowd Generation Software for MS&T Simulations and Training

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-20

3 Technology Overview 5 Dynemotion System Components 5 Dynemotion System Architecture 6 Dynemotion-Enabled NPC Brain Cycles 9 Dynemotion API...Contents 10 Development Project Background Information 11 Potential Application and Impact for the DoD 13 Project Objectives, Scope...Methodology 13 Benefits of the Project 13 Project Innovation 14 *l_essons Learned and Open Questions 14 Research and Development Challenges 16

Virtual Reality Based Collaborative Design by Children with High-Functioning Autism: Design-Based Flexibility, Identity, and Norm Construction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ke, Fengfeng; Lee, Sungwoong

2016-01-01

This exploratory case study examined the process and potential impact of collaborative architectural design and construction in an OpenSimulator-based virtual reality (VR) on the social skills development of children with high-functioning autism (HFA). Two children with a formal medical diagnosis of HFA and one typically developing peer, aged…

A Multi-Scale Modeling Framework for Shear Initiated Reactions in Energetic Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-07-01

Laboratory, 2004. 10. Fermen-Coker, M., “Numerical Simulation of Adiabatic Shear Bands in Ti-6Al-4V Alloy Due to Fragment Impact,” ARL-RP-91; U.S...V.G., “Application of the Morse Potential Function to Cubic Metals” Phys. Rev., Vol. 114, pp. 687- 690 , 1959. 15. McQuarrie, D.A., Statistical

Streamflow response to climate and landuse changes in a coastal watershed in North Carolina

Treesearch

S. Qi; G. Sun; Y. Wang; S.G. McNulty; J.A. Moore Myers

2009-01-01

It is essential to examine the sensitivity of hydrologic responses to climate and landuse change across different physiographic regions in order to formulate sound water management policies for local response to projected global change. This study used the a simulation model to examine the potential impacts of climate and landuse changes on streamflow of the...

Surface Impact Simulations of Helium Nanodroplets

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-30

mechanical delocalization of the individual helium atoms in the droplet and the quan- tum statistical effects that accompany the interchange of identical...incorporates the effects of atomic delocaliza- tion by treating individual atoms as smeared-out probability distributions that move along classical...probability density distributions to give effec- tive interatomic potential energy curves that have zero-point averaging effects built into them [25

Application of the coastal generalized ecosystem model (CGEM) to assess the impacts of a potential future climate scenario on northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxia

EPA Science Inventory

Mechanistic hypoxia models for the northern Gulf of Mexico are being used to guide policy goals for Mississippi River nutrient loading reductions. However, to date, these models have not examined the effects of both nutrient loads and future climate. Here, we simulate a future c...

An indicator of tree migration in forests of the eastern United States

Treesearch

C.W. Woodall; C.M. Oswalt; J.A. Westfall; C.H. Perry; M.D. Nelson; A.O. Finley

2009-01-01

Changes in tree species distributions are a potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. The examination of tree species shifts in forests of the eastern United States largely has been limited to simulation activities due to a lack of consistent, long-term forest inventory datasets. The goal of this study was to compare current geographic distributions of...

Energy Security under Conditions of Uncertainty: Simulating a Comparative Bureaucratic Politics Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garrison, Jean A.; Redd, Steven B.; Carter, Ralph G.

2010-01-01

For those who must import oil to maintain their economies and quality of life, any disruption in the delivery of imported oil is a highly threatening prospect. How would U.S. policymakers react to such a threat in the contemporary era? We examine the potential policymaking roles and impacts of bureaucratic actors operating at the intersection of…

Thermal Load Considerations for Detonative Combustion-Based Gas Turbine Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paxson, Daniel E.; Perkins, H. Douglas

2004-01-01

An analysis was conducted to assess methods for, and performance implications of, cooling the passages (tubes) of a pulse detonation-based combustor conceptually installed in the core of a gas turbine engine typical of regional aircraft. Temperature-limited material stress criteria were developed from common-sense engineering practice, and available material properties. Validated, one-dimensional, numerical simulations were then used to explore a variety of cooling methods and establish whether or not they met the established criteria. Simulation output data from successful schemes were averaged and used in a cycle-deck engine simulation in order to assess the impact of the cooling method on overall performance. Results were compared to both a baseline engine equipped with a constant-pressure combustor and to one equipped with an idealized detonative combustor. Major findings indicate that thermal loads in these devices are large, but potentially manageable. However, the impact on performance can be substantial. Nearly one half of the ideally possible specific fuel consumption (SFC) reduction is lost due to cooling of the tubes. Details of the analysis are described, limitations are presented, and implications are discussed.

A study of the feasibility of using sea and wind information from the ERS-1 satellite. Part 1: Wind scatterometer data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, D.; Hollingsworth, A.; Uppala, S.; Woiceshyn, P.

1987-01-01

The use of scatterometer and altimeter data in wind and wave assimilation, and the benefits this offers for quality assurance and validation of ERS-1 data were examined. Real time use of ERS-1 data was simulated through assimilation of Seasat scatterometer data. The potential for quality assurance and validation is demonstrated by documenting a series of substantial problems with the scatterometer data, which are known but took years to establish, or are new. A data impact study, and an analysis of the performance of ambiguity removal algorithms on real and simulated data were conducted. The impact of the data on analyses and forecasts is large in the Southern Hemisphere, generally small in the Northern Hemisphere, and occasionally large in the Tropics. Tests with simulated data give more optimistic results than tests with real data. Errors in ambiguity removal results occur in clusters. The probabilities which can be calculated for the ambiguous wind directions on ERS-1 contain more information than is given by a simple ranking of the directions.

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

DOE PAGES

Tessum, Christopher W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.; ...

2017-04-19

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. We present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical informationmore » from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons we run, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of -17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license.« less

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

PubMed Central

Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

2017-01-01

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. Here, we present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical information from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons run here, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of −17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license. PMID:28423049

Simulated climate change conditions unveil the toxic potential of the fungicide pyrimethanil on the midge Chironomus riparius: a multigeneration experiment

PubMed Central

Müller, Ruth; Seeland, Anne; Jagodzinski, Lucas S; Diogo, Joao B; Nowak, Carsten; Oehlmann, Jörg

2012-01-01

Although it has been suggested that temperature increase may alter the toxic potential of environmental pollutants, few studies have investigated the potential risk of chemical stressors for wildlife under Global Climate Change (GCC) impact. We applied a bifactorial multigeneration study in order to test if GCC conditions alter the effects of low pesticide concentrations on life history and genetic diversity of the aquatic model organism Chironomus riparius. Experimental populations of the species were chronically exposed to a low concentration of the fungicide pyrimethanil (half of the no-observed-adverse-effect concentration: NOAEC/2) under two dynamic present-day temperature simulations (11.0–22.7°C; 14.0–25.2°C) and one future scenario (16.5–28.1°C). During the 140-day multigeneration study, survival, emergence, reproduction, population growth, and genetic diversity of C. riparius were analyzed. Our results reveal that high temperature and pyrimethanil act synergistically on the midge C. riparius. In simulated present-day scenarios, a NOAEC/2 of pyrimethanil as derived from a life-cycle toxicity test provoked only slight-to-moderate beneficial or adverse effects on C. riparius. In contrast, exposure to a NOAEC/2 concentration of pyrimethanil at a thermal situation likely for a summer under GCC conditions uncovered adverse effects on mortality and population growth rate. In addition, genetic diversity was considerably reduced by pyrimethanil in the future scenario, but only slightly under current climatic conditions. Our multigeneration study under near-natural (climatic) conditions indicates that not only the impact of climate change, but also low concentrations of pesticides may pose a reasonable risk for aquatic insects in future. PMID:22408736

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tessum, Christopher W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. We present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical informationmore » from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons we run, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of -17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license.« less

Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogstad, S.; Condron, A.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.

Putting mechanisms into crop production models.

PubMed

Boote, Kenneth J; Jones, James W; White, Jeffrey W; Asseng, Senthold; Lizaso, Jon I

2013-09-01

Crop growth models dynamically simulate processes of C, N and water balance on daily or hourly time-steps to predict crop growth and development and at season-end, final yield. Their ability to integrate effects of genetics, environment and crop management have led to applications ranging from understanding gene function to predicting potential impacts of climate change. The history of crop models is reviewed briefly, and their level of mechanistic detail for assimilation and respiration, ranging from hourly leaf-to-canopy assimilation to daily radiation-use efficiency is discussed. Crop models have improved steadily over the past 30-40 years, but much work remains. Improvements are needed for the prediction of transpiration response to elevated CO₂ and high temperature effects on phenology and reproductive fertility, and simulation of root growth and nutrient uptake under stressful edaphic conditions. Mechanistic improvements are needed to better connect crop growth to genetics and to soil fertility, soil waterlogging and pest damage. Because crop models integrate multiple processes and consider impacts of environment and management, they have excellent potential for linking research from genomics and allied disciplines to crop responses at the field scale, thus providing a valuable tool for deciphering genotype by environment by management effects. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Curtis; Mandelli, Diego; Prescott, Steven

The existing fleet of nuclear power plants is in the process of extending its lifetime and increasing the power generated from these plants via power uprates. In order to evaluate the impact of these factors on the safety of the plant, the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) project aims to provide insight to decision makers through a series of simulations of the plant dynamics for different initial conditions (e.g., probabilistic analysis and uncertainty quantification). This report focuses, in particular, on the application of a RISMC detailed demonstration case study for an emergent issue using the RAVEN and RELAP-7 tools.more » This case study looks at the impact of a couple of challenges to a hypothetical pressurized water reactor, including: (1) a power uprate, (2) a potential loss of off-site power followed by the possible loss of all diesel generators (i.e., a station black-out event), (3) and earthquake induces station-blackout, and (4) a potential earthquake induced tsunami flood. The analysis is performed by using a set of codes: a thermal-hydraulic code (RELAP-7), a flooding simulation tool (NEUTRINO) and a stochastic analysis tool (RAVEN) – these are currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory.« less

Microbial physiology-based model of ethanol metabolism in subsurface sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Qusheng; Roden, Eric E.

2011-07-01

A biogeochemical reaction model was developed based on microbial physiology to simulate ethanol metabolism and its influence on the chemistry of anoxic subsurface environments. The model accounts for potential microbial metabolisms that degrade ethanol, including those that oxidize ethanol directly or syntrophically by reducing different electron acceptors. Out of the potential metabolisms, those that are active in the environment can be inferred by fitting the model to experimental observations. This approach was applied to a batch sediment slurry experiment that examined ethanol metabolism in uranium-contaminated aquifer sediments from Area 2 at the U.S. Department of Energy Field Research Center in Oak Ridge, TN. According to the simulation results, complete ethanol oxidation by denitrification, incomplete ethanol oxidation by ferric iron reduction, ethanol fermentation to acetate and H 2, hydrogenotrophic sulfate reduction, and acetoclastic methanogenesis: all contributed significantly to the degradation of ethanol in the aquifer sediments. The assemblage of the active metabolisms provides a frame work to explore how ethanol amendment impacts the chemistry of the environment, including the occurrence and levels of uranium. The results can also be applied to explore how diverse microbial metabolisms impact the progress and efficacy of bioremediation strategies.

Meteorological and air quality impacts of increased urban albedo and vegetative cover in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taha, Haider; Hammer, Hillel; Akbari, Hashem

2002-04-30

The study described in this report is part of a project sponsored by the Toronto Atmospheric Fund, performed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, to assess the potential role of surface property modifications on energy, meteorology, and air quality in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada. Numerical models were used to establish the possible meteorological and ozone air-quality impacts of increased urban albedo and vegetative fraction, i.e., ''cool-city'' strategies that can mitigate the urban heat island (UHI), significantly reduce urban energy consumption, and improve thermal comfort, particularly during periods of hot weather in summer. Mitigation is even more important duringmore » critical heat wave periods with possible increased heat-related hospitalization and mortality. The evidence suggests that on an annual basis cool-city strategies are beneficial, and the implementation of such measures is currently being investigated in the U.S. and Canada. We simulated possible scenari os for urban heat-island mitigation in the GTA and investigated consequent meteorological changes, and also performed limited air-quality analysis to assess related impacts. The study was based on a combination of mesoscale meteorological modeling, Lagrangian (trajectory), and photochemical trajectory modeling to assess the potential meteorological and ozone air-quality impacts of cool-city strategies. As available air-quality and emissions data are incompatible with models currently in use at LBNL, our air-quality analysis was based on photochemical trajectory modeling. Because of questions as to the accuracy and appropriateness of this approach, in our opinion this aspect of the study can be improved in the future, and the air-quality results discussed in this report should be viewed as relatively qualitative. The MM5 meteorological model predicts a UHI in the order of 2 to 3 degrees C in locations of maxima, and about 1 degree C as a typical value over most of the urban area. Our si mulations suggest that cool-city strategies can typically reduce local urban air temperature by 0.5-1 degrees C; as more sporadic events, larger decreases (1.5 degrees C, 2.5-2.7 degrees C and 4-6 degrees C) were also simulated. With regard to ozone mixing ratios along the simulated trajectories, the effects of cool-city strategies appear to be on the order of 2 ppb, a typical decrease. The photochemical trajectory model (CIT) also simulates larger decreases (e.g., 4 to 8 ppb), but these are not taken as representative of the potential impacts in this report. A comparison with other simulations suggest very crudely that a decrease of this magnitude corresponds to significant ''equivalent'' decreases in both NOx and VOCs emissions in the region. Our preliminary results suggest that significant UHI control can be achieved with cool-cities strategies in the GTA and is therefore worth further study. We recommend that better input data and more accurate modeling schemes be used to carry out f uture studies in the same direction.« less

The influences of wildfires and stratospheric-tropospheric exchange on ozone during seacions mission over St. Louis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkins, Joseph L.

The influence of wildfire biomass burning and stratospheric air mass transport on tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations in St. Louis during the SEAC4RS and SEACIONS-2013 measurement campaigns has been investigated. The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART-WRF analysis reveals that 55% of ozonesonde profiles during SEACIONS were effected by biomass burning. Comparing ozonesonde profiles with numerical simulations show that as biomass burning plumes age there is O3 production aloft. A new plume injection height technique was developed based on the Naval Research Laboratory's (NRL) detection algorithm for pyro-convection. The NRL method identified 29 pyro-cumulonimbus events that occurred during the summer of 2013, of which 13 (44%) impacted the SEACIONS study area, and 4 (14%) impacted the St. Louis area. In this study, we investigate wildfire plume injection heights using model simulations and the FLAMBE emissions inventory using 2 different algorithms. In the first case, wildfire emissions are injected at the surface and allowed to mix within the boundary layer simulated by the meteorological model. In the second case, the injection height of wildfire emissions is determined by a guided deep-convective pyroCb run using the NRL detection algorithm. Results show that simulations using surface emissions were able to represent the transport of carbon monoxide plumes from wildfires when the plumes remained below 5 km or occurred during large convective systems, but that the surface effects were over predicted. The pyroCb cases simulated the long-range transport of elevated plumes above 5 km 68% of the time. In addition analysis of potential vorticity suggests that stratospheric intrusions or tropopause folds affected 13 days (48%) when there were sonde launches and 27 days (44%) during the entire study period. The largest impact occurred on September 12, 2013 when ozone-rich air impacted the nocturnal boundary layer. By analyzing ozonesonde profiles with meteorological transport models, we were able to identify biomass burning and stratospheric intrusions in St. Louis.

A generalized model for stability of trees under impact conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dattola, Giuseppe; Crosta, Giovanni; Castellanza, Riccardo; di Prisco, Claudio; Canepa, Davide

2016-04-01

Stability of trees to external actions involve the combined effects of stem and tree root systems. A block impacting on the stem or an applied force pulling the stem can cause a tree instability involving stem bending or failure and tree root rotation. So different contributions are involved in the stability of the system. The rockfalls are common natural phenomena that can be unpredictable in terms of frequency and magnitude characteristics, and this makes difficult the estimate of potential hazard and risk for human lives and activities. In mountain areas a natural form of protection from rockfalls is provided by forest growing. The difficulties in the assessment of the real capability of this natural barrier by means of models is an open problem. Nevertheless, a large amount of experimental data are now available which provides support for the development of advanced theoretical framework and corresponding models. The aim of this contribution consists in presenting a model developed to predict the behavior of trees during a block impact. This model describes the tree stem by means of a linear elastic beam system consisting of two beams connected in series and with an equivalent geometry. The tree root system is described via an equivalent foundation, whose behavior is modelled through an elasto-plastic macro-element model. In order to calibrate the model parameters, simulations reproducing a series of winching tests, are performed. These numerical simulations confirm the capability of the model to predict the mechanical behavior of the stem-root system in terms of displacement vs force curves. Finally, numerical simulations of the impact of a boulder with a tree stem are carried out. These simulations, done under dynamic regime and with the model parameters obtained from the previous set of simulations, confirm the capability of the model to reproduce the effects on the stem-roots system generated by impulsive loads.

Vehicle impact simulation for curb and barrier design : volume 1, impact simulation procedures.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-10-01

The objectives of this study were to perform computer simulations of vehicle-curb and vehicle-berm impacts, to characterize : the behavior of a wide range of vehicle types after such impacts, and to produce design and evaluation trajectory data for u...

Sensitivity Observing System Experiment (SOSE)-a new effective NWP-based tool in designing the global observing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marseille, Gert-Jan; Stoffelen, Ad; Barkmeijer, Jan

2008-03-01

Lacking an established methodology to test the potential impact of prospective extensions to the global observing system (GOS) in real atmospheric cases we developed such a method, called Sensitivity Observing System Experiment (SOSE). For example, since the GOS is non uniform it is of interest to investigate the benefit of complementary observing systems filling its gaps. In a SOSE adjoint sensitivity structures are used to define a pseudo true atmospheric state for the simulation of the prospective observing system. Next, the synthetic observations are used together with real observations from the existing GOS in a state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model to assess the potential added value of the new observing system. Unlike full observing system simulation experiments (OSSE), SOSE can be applied to real extreme events that were badly forecast operationally and only requires the simulation of the new instrument. As such SOSE is an effective tool, for example, to define observation requirements for extensions to the GOS. These observation requirements may serve as input for the design of an operational network of prospective observing systems. In a companion paper we use SOSE to simulate potential future space borne Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL) scenarios and assess their capability to sample meteorologically sensitive areas not well captured by the current GOS, in particular over the Northern Hemisphere oceans.

Element fracture technique for hypervelocity impact simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiao-tian; Li, Xiao-gang; Liu, Tao; Jia, Guang-hui

2015-05-01

Hypervelocity impact dynamics is the theoretical support of spacecraft shielding against space debris. The numerical simulation has become an important approach for obtaining the ballistic limits of the spacecraft shields. Currently, the most widely used algorithm for hypervelocity impact is the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH). Although the finite element method (FEM) is widely used in fracture mechanics and low-velocity impacts, the standard FEM can hardly simulate the debris cloud generated by hypervelocity impact. This paper presents a successful application of the node-separation technique for hypervelocity impact debris cloud simulation. The node-separation technique assigns individual/coincident nodes for the adjacent elements, and it applies constraints to the coincident node sets in the modeling step. In the explicit iteration, the cracks are generated by releasing the constrained node sets that meet the fracture criterion. Additionally, the distorted elements are identified from two aspects - self-piercing and phase change - and are deleted so that the constitutive computation can continue. FEM with the node-separation technique is used for thin-wall hypervelocity impact simulations. The internal structures of the debris cloud in the simulation output are compared with that in the test X-ray graphs under different material fracture criteria. It shows that the pressure criterion is more appropriate for hypervelocity impact. The internal structures of the debris cloud are also simulated and compared under different thickness-to-diameter ratios (t/D). The simulation outputs show the same spall pattern with the tests. Finally, the triple-plate impact case is simulated with node-separation FEM.

Tethers as Debris: Hydrocode Simulation of Impacts of Polymer Tether Fragments on Aluminum Plates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Steven W.

2003-01-01

Tethers promise to find use in a variety of space applications. Despite being narrow objects, their great lengths result in them having large total areas. Consequently, tethers are very susceptible to being severed by orbital debris. Extensive work has been done designing tethers that resist severs by small debris objects, in order to lengthen their working lives. It is from this perspective that most recent work has considered the tether - debris question. The potential of intact tethers, or severed tether fragments, as debris, to pose a significant collision risk to other spacecraft has been less well studied. Understanding the consequences of such collisions is important in assessing the risks tethers pose to other spacecraft. This paper discusses the damage that polymer tethers may produce on aluminum plates, as revealed by hypervelocity impact simulations using the SPHC hydrodynamic code.

Aeolian abrasion on Venus: Preliminary results from the Venus simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, J. R.; Greeley, Ronald; Tucker, D. W.; Pollack, J. B.

1987-01-01

The role of atmospheric pressure on aeolian abrasion was examined in the Venus Simulator with a constant temperature of 737 K. Both the rock target and the impactor were fine-grained basalt. The impactor was a 3 mm diameter angular particle chosen to represent a size of material that is entrainable by the dense Venusian atmosphere and potentially abrasive by virtue of its mass. It was projected at the target 10 to the 5 power times at a velocity of 0.7 m/s. The impactor showed a weight loss of approximately 1.2 x 10 to the -9 power gm per impact with the attrition occurring only at the edges. Results from scanning electron microscope analysis, profilometry, and weight measurement are summarized. It is concluded that particles can incur abrasion at Venusian temperatures even with low impact velocities expected for Venus.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plusmore » two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.« less

A system to evaluate fire impacts from simulated fire behavior in Mediterranean areas of Central Chile.

PubMed

Castillo, Miguel E; Molina, Juan R; Rodríguez Y Silva, Francisco; García-Chevesich, Pablo; Garfias, Roberto

2017-02-01

Wildfires constitute the greatest economic disruption to Mediterranean ecosystems, from a socio-economic and ecological perspective (Molina et al., 2014). This study proposes to classify fire intensity levels based on potential fire behavior in different types of Mediterranean vegetation types, using two geographical scales. The study considered >4 thousand wildfires over a period of 25years, identifying fire behavior on each event, based on simulations using "KITRAL", a model developed in Chile in 1993 and currently used in the entire country. Fire intensity values allowed results to be classified into six fire effects categories (levels), each of them with field indicators linking energy values with damage related to burned vegetation and wildland urban interface zone. These indicators also facilitated a preliminary assessment of wildfire impact on different Mediterranean land uses and, are therefore, a useful tool to prioritize future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Metallurgical Plant Optimization Through the use of Flowsheet Simulation Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Mark William

Modern metallurgical plants typically have complex flowsheets and operate on a continuous basis. Real time interactions within such processes can be complex and the impacts of streams such as recycles on process efficiency and stability can be highly unexpected prior to actual operation. Current desktop computing power, combined with state-of-the-art flowsheet simulation software like Metsim, allow for thorough analysis of designs to explore the interaction between operating rate, heat and mass balances and in particular the potential negative impact of recycles. Using plant information systems, it is possible to combine real plant data with simple steady state models, using dynamic data exchange links to allow for near real time de-bottlenecking of operations. Accurate analytical results can also be combined with detailed unit operations models to allow for feed-forward model-based-control. This paper will explore some examples of the application of Metsim to real world engineering and plant operational issues.

Discrete event simulation model of sudden cardiac death predicts high impact of preventive interventions.

PubMed

Andreev, Victor P; Head, Trajen; Johnson, Neil; Deo, Sapna K; Daunert, Sylvia; Goldschmidt-Clermont, Pascal J

2013-01-01

Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD) is responsible for at least 180,000 deaths a year and incurs an average cost of $286 billion annually in the United States alone. Herein, we present a novel discrete event simulation model of SCD, which quantifies the chains of events associated with the formation, growth, and rupture of atheroma plaques, and the subsequent formation of clots, thrombosis and on-set of arrhythmias within a population. The predictions generated by the model are in good agreement both with results obtained from pathological examinations on the frequencies of three major types of atheroma, and with epidemiological data on the prevalence and risk of SCD. These model predictions allow for identification of interventions and importantly for the optimal time of intervention leading to high potential impact on SCD risk reduction (up to 8-fold reduction in the number of SCDs in the population) as well as the increase in life expectancy.

Investigating Intrinsic and Extrinsic Variables During Simulated Internet Search

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liechty, Molly M.; Madhavan, Poornima

2011-01-01

Using an eye tracker we examined decision-making processes during an internet search task. Twenty experienced homebuyers and twenty-five undergraduates from Old Dominion University viewed homes on a simulated real estate website. Several of the homes included physical properties that had the potential to negatively impact individual perceptions. These negative externalities were either easy to change (Level 1) or impossible to change (Level 2). Eye movements were analyzed to examine the relationship between participants' "stated preferences"[verbalized preferences], "revealed preferences" [actual decisions[, and experience. Dwell times, fixation durations/counts, and saccade counts/amplitudes were analyzed. Results revealed that experienced homebuyers demonstrated a more refined search pattern than novice searchers. Experienced homebuyers were also less impacted by negative externalities. Furthermore, stated preferences were discrepant from revealed preferences; although participants initially stated they liked/disliked a graphic, their eye movement patterns did not reflect this trend. These results have important implications for design of user-friendly web interfaces.

Impacts of second-generation biofuel feedstock production in the central U.S. on the hydrologic cycle and global warming mitigation potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, K. J.; Twine, T. E.; VanLoocke, A.; Bagley, J. E.; Hill, J.

2016-10-01

Biofuel feedstocks provide a renewable energy source that can reduce fossil fuel emissions; however, if produced on a large scale they can also impact local to regional water and carbon budgets. Simulation results for 2005-2014 from a regional weather model adapted to simulate the growth of two perennial grass biofuel feedstocks suggest that replacing at least half the current annual cropland with these grasses would increase water use efficiency and drive greater rainfall downwind of perturbed grid cells, but increased evapotranspiration (ET) might switch the Mississippi River basin from having a net warm-season surplus of water (precipitation minus ET) to a net deficit. While this scenario reduces land required for biofuel feedstock production relative to current use for maize grain ethanol production, it only offsets approximately one decade of projected anthropogenic warming and increased water vapor results in greater atmospheric heat content.

Susitna Hydroelectric Project: terrestrial environmental workshop and preliminary simulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Everitt, Robert R.; Sonntag, Nicholas C.; Auble, Gregory T.; Roelle, James E.; Gazey, William

1982-01-01

The technical feasibility, economic viability, and environmental impacts of a hydroelectric development project in the Susitna River Basin are being studied by Acres American, Inc. on behalf of the Alaska Power Authority. As part of these studies, Acres American recently contracted LGL Alaska Research Associates, Inc. to coordinate the terrestrial environmental studies being performed by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and, as subcontractors to LGL, several University of Alaska research groups. LGL is responsible for further quantifying the potential impacts of the project on terrestrial wildlife and vegetation, and for developing a plan to mitigate adverse impacts on the terrestrial environment. The impact assessment and mitigation plan will be included as part of a license application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) scheduled for the first quarter of 1983. The quantification of impacts, mitigation planning, and design of future research is being organized using a computer simulation modelling approach. Through a series of workshops attended by researchers, resource managers, and policy-makers, a computer model is being developed and refined for use in the quantification of impacts on terrestrial wildlife and vegetation, and for evaluating different mitigation measures such as habitat enhancement and the designation of replacement lands to be managed by wildlife habitat. This report describes the preliminary model developed at the first workshop held August 23 -27, 1982 in Anchorage.

Aggregated N-of-1 randomized controlled trials: modern data analytics applied to a clinically valid method of intervention effectiveness.

PubMed

Cushing, Christopher C; Walters, Ryan W; Hoffman, Lesa

2014-03-01

Aggregated N-of-1 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) combined with multilevel modeling represent a methodological advancement that may help bridge science and practice in pediatric psychology. The purpose of this article is to offer a primer for pediatric psychologists interested in conducting aggregated N-of-1 RCTs. An overview of N-of-1 RCT methodology is provided and 2 simulated data sets are analyzed to demonstrate the clinical and research potential of the methodology. The simulated data example demonstrates the utility of aggregated N-of-1 RCTs for understanding the clinical impact of an intervention for a given individual and the modeling of covariates to explain why an intervention worked for one patient and not another. Aggregated N-of-1 RCTs hold potential for improving the science and practice of pediatric psychology.

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowden, Jared H.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Otte, Tanya L.

2013-04-01

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) output for air quality applications under a changing climate. In this study we downscale the NCEP-Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis using three continuous 20-year WRF simulations: one simulation without interior grid nudging and two using different interior grid nudging methods. The biases in 2-m temperature and precipitation for the simulation without interior grid nudging are unreasonably large with respect to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) over the eastern half of the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the summer when air quality concerns are most relevant. This study examines how these differences arise from errors in predicting the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is demonstrated that the Bermuda high, which strongly influences the regional climate for much of the eastern half of the CONUS during the summer, is poorly simulated without interior grid nudging. In particular, two summers when the Bermuda high was west (1993) and east (2003) of its climatological position are chosen to illustrate problems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. For both summers, WRF without interior grid nudging fails to simulate the placement of the upper-level anticyclonic (1993) and cyclonic (2003) circulation anomalies. The displacement of the large-scale circulation impacts the lower atmosphere moisture transport and precipitable water, affecting the convective environment and precipitation. Using interior grid nudging improves the large-scale circulation aloft and moisture transport/precipitable water anomalies, thereby improving the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation. The results demonstrate that constraining the RCM to the large-scale features in the driving fields improves the overall accuracy of the simulated regional climate, and suggest that in the absence of such a constraint, the RCM will likely misrepresent important large-scale shifts in the atmospheric circulation under a future climate.

Simulated Space Environment Effects on a Candidate Solar Sail Material

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kang, Jin Ho; Bryant, Robert G.; Wilkie, W. Keats; Wadsworth, Heather M.; Craven, Paul D.; Nehls, Mary K.; Vaughn, Jason A.

2017-01-01

For long duration missions of solar sails, the sail material needs to survive harsh space environments and the degradation of the sail material controls operational lifetime. Therefore, understanding the effects of the space environment on the sail membrane is essential for mission success. In this study, we investigated the effect of simulated space environment effects of ionizing radiation, thermal aging and simulated potential damage on mechanical, thermal and optical properties of a commercial off the shelf (COTS) polyester solar sail membrane to assess the degradation mechanisms on a feasible solar sail. The solar sail membrane was exposed to high energy electrons (about 70 keV and 10 nA/cm2), and the physical properties were characterized. After about 8.3 Grad dose, the tensile modulus, tensile strength and failure strain of the sail membrane decreased by about 20 95%. The aluminum reflective layer was damaged and partially delaminated but it did not show any significant change in solar absorbance or thermal emittance. The effect on mechanical properties of a pre-cracked sample, simulating potential impact damage of the sail membrane, as well as thermal aging effects on metallized PEN (polyethylene naphthalate) film will be discussed.

Measurements of fireball onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheiner, Brett; Barnat, Edward V.; Baalrud, Scott D.; Hopkins, Matthew M.; Yee, Benjamin T.

2018-04-01

Laser-based measurements of the characteristic features of fireball onset and stabilization in response to a stepped voltage applied to an anode immersed in a low pressure (100 mTorr) helium afterglow are reported. These include spatial and temporal evolution of metastable species, electron density, and electric field magnitude as measured by planar laser induced fluorescence, laser-collision induced fluorescence, and laser-induced fluorescence-dip spectroscopy, respectively. These measurements are found to be in qualitative agreement with recent particle-in-cell simulations and theoretical models [Scheiner et al., Phys. Plasmas 24, 113520 (2017)]. The measurements validate the simulations and models in which fireball onset was predicted to follow from the trapping of electrons born from electron impact ionization within a potential well created by a buildup of ions in the sheath. The experimental measurements also demonstrate transient features following the onset that were not present in previous simulations. New simulation results are presented which demonstrate that these features are associated with the abruptness of the voltage step used to initiate fireball onset. An abrupt step in the anode bias causes rapid displacement of ions and an associated plasma potential response following the sheath and fireball expansion.

Simulating the impact of no-till systems on field water fluxes and maize productivity under semi-arid conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mupangwa, W.; Jewitt, G. P. W.

Crop output from the smallholder farming sector in sub-Saharan Africa is trailing population growth leading to widespread household food insecurity. It is therefore imperative that crop production in semi-arid areas be improved in order to meet the food demand of the ever increasing human population. No-till farming practices have the potential to increase crop productivity in smallholder production systems of sub-Saharan Africa, but rarely do because of the constraints experienced by these farmers. One of the most significant of these is the consumption of mulch by livestock. In the absence of long term on-farm assessment of the no-till system under smallholder conditions, simulation modelling is a tool that provides an insight into the potential benefits and can highlight shortcomings of the system under existing soil, climatic and socio-economic conditions. Thus, this study was designed to better understand the long term impact of no-till system without mulch cover on field water fluxes and maize productivity under a highly variable rainfall pattern typical of semi-arid South Africa. The simulated on-farm experiment consisted of two tillage treatments namely oxen-drawn conventional ploughing (CT) and ripping (NT). The APSIM model was applied for a 95 year period after first being calibrated and validated using measured runoff and maize yield data. The predicted results showed significantly higher surface runoff from the conventional system compared to the no-till system. Predicted deep drainage losses were higher from the NT system compared to the CT system regardless of the rainfall pattern. However, the APSIM model predicted 62% of the annual rainfall being lost through soil evaporation from both tillage systems. The predicted yields from the two systems were within 50 kg ha -1 difference in 74% of the years used in the simulation. In only 9% of the years, the model predicted higher grain yield in the NT system compared to the CT system. It is suggested that NT systems may have great potential for reducing surface runoff from smallholder fields and that the NT systems may have potential to recharge groundwater resources through increased deep drainage. However, it was also noted that the APSIM model has major shortcomings in simulating the water balance at this level of detail and that the findings need to be confirmed by further field based and modelling studies. Nevertheless, it is clear that without mulch or a cover crop, the continued high soil evaporation and correspondingly low crop yields suggest that there is little benefit to farmers adopting NT systems in semiarid environments, despite potential water resources benefits downstream. In such cases, the potential for payment for ecosystem services should be explored.

Simulating the Impacts of Climate Extremes Across Sectors: The Case of the 2003 European Heat Wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, J.; Zhao, F.; Reyer, C.; Breuer, L.; Coll, M.; Deryng, D.; Eddy, T.; Elliott, J. W.; Francois, L. M.; Friend, A. D.; Gerten, D.; Gosling, S.; Gudmundsson, L.; Huber, V.; Kim, H.; Lotze, H. K.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Wada, Y.

2017-12-01

Increased occurrence of extreme climate or weather events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the impacts of such extreme events across different human and natural systems is crucial for quantifying overall risks from climate change. Are current models fit for this task? Here we use the 2003 European heat wave and drought (EHW) as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, and evaluate how accurately its impacts are reproduced by a multi-sectoral "super-ensemble" of state-of-the-art impacts models. Our study combines, for the first time, impacts on agriculture, freshwater resources, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, energy, and human health in a consistent multi-model framework. We identify key impacts of the 2003 EHW reported in the literature and/or recorded in publicly available databases, and examine how closely the models reproduce those impacts, applying the same measure of impact magnitude across different sectors. Preliminary results are mixed: While the EHW's impacts on water resources (streamflow) are reproduced well by most global hydrological models, not all crop and natural vegetation models reproduce the magnitude of impacts on agriculture and ecosystem productivity, respectively, and their performance varies by country or region. A hydropower capacity model matches reported hydropower generation anomalies only in some countries, and estimates of heat-related excess mortality from a set of statistical models are consistent with literature reports only for some of the cities investigated. We present a synthesis of simulated and observed impacts across sectors, and reflect on potential improvements in modeling and analyzing cross-sectoral impacts.

Potentials of real time control, stormwater infiltration and urine separation to minimize river impacts: dynamic long term simulation of sewer network, pumping stations, pressure pipes and waste water treatment plant.

PubMed

Peters, C; Keller, S; Sieker, H; Jekel, M

2007-01-01

River Panke (Berlin, Germany) suffers from hydraulic peak loads and pollutant loads from separate sewers and combined sewer overflows (CSOs). Pumping the wastewater through long pressure pipes causes extreme peak loads to the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) during stormwater events. In order to find a good solution, it is essential not to decide on one approach at the beginning, but to evaluate a number of different approaches. For this reason, an integrated simulation study is carried out, assessing the potentials of real time control (RTC), stormwater infiltration, storage and urine separation. Criteria for the assessment are derived and multi-criteria analysis is applied. Despite spatial limitations, infiltration has the highest potential and is very effective with respect to both overflows and the WWTP. Due to a high percentage of separate systems, urine separation has a similar potential and causes the strongest benefits at the WWTP. Unconventional control strategies can lead to significant improvement (comparable to infiltrating the water from approximately 10% of the sealed area).

How stimulation speed affects Event-Related Potentials and BCI performance.

PubMed

Höhne, Johannes; Tangermann, Michael

2012-01-01

In most paradigms for Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) that are based on Event-Related Potentials (ERPs), stimuli are presented with a pre-defined and constant speed. In order to boost BCI performance by optimizing the parameters of stimulation, this offline study investigates the impact of the stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) on ERPs and the resulting classification accuracy. The SOA is defined as the time between the onsets of two consecutive stimuli, which represents a measure for stimulation speed. A simple auditory oddball paradigm was tested in 14 SOA conditions with a SOA between 50 ms and 1000 ms. Based on an offline ERP analysis, the BCI performance (quantified by the Information Transfer Rate, ITR in bits/min) was simulated. A great variability in the simulated BCI performance was observed within subjects (N=11). This indicates a potential increase in BCI performance (≥ 1.6 bits/min) for ERP-based paradigms, if the stimulation speed is specified for each user individually.

Internet of Things: a possible change in the distributed modeling and simulation architecture paradigm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riecken, Mark; Lessmann, Kurt; Schillero, David

2016-05-01

The Data Distribution Service (DDS) was started by the Object Management Group (OMG) in 2004. Currently, DDS is one of the contenders to support the Internet of Things (IoT) and the Industrial IOT (IIoT). DDS has also been used as a distributed simulation architecture. Given the anticipated proliferation of IoT and II devices, along with the explosive growth of sensor technology, can we expect this to have an impact on the broader community of distributed simulation? If it does, what is the impact and which distributed simulation domains will be most affected? DDS shares many of the same goals and characteristics of distributed simulation such as the need to support scale and an emphasis on Quality of Service (QoS) that can be tailored to meet the end user's needs. In addition, DDS has some built-in features such as security that are not present in traditional distributed simulation protocols. If the IoT and II realize their potential application, we predict a large base of technology to be built around this distributed data paradigm, much of which could be directly beneficial to the distributed M&S community. In this paper we compare some of the perceived gaps and shortfalls of current distributed M&S technology to the emerging capabilities of DDS built around the IoT. Although some trial work has been conducted in this area, we propose a more focused examination of the potential of these new technologies and their applicability to current and future problems in distributed M&S. The Internet of Things (IoT) and its data communications mechanisms such as the Data Distribution System (DDS) share properties in common with distributed modeling and simulation (M&S) and its protocols such as the High Level Architecture (HLA) and the Test and Training Enabling Architecture (TENA). This paper proposes a framework based on the sensor use case for how the two communities of practice (CoP) can benefit from one another and achieve greater capability in practical distributed computing.

An investigation of human body model morphing for the assessment of abdomen responses to impact against a population of test subjects.

PubMed

Beillas, Philippe; Berthet, Fabien

2017-05-29

Human body models have the potential to better describe the human anatomy and variability than dummies. However, data sets available to verify the human response to impact are typically limited in numbers, and they are not size or gender specific. The objective of this study was to investigate the use of model morphing methodologies within that context. In this study, a simple human model scaling methodology was developed to morph two detailed human models (Global Human Body Model Consortium models 50th male, M50, and 5th female, F05) to the dimensions of post mortem human surrogates (PMHS) used in published literature. The methodology was then successfully applied to 52 PMHS tested in 14 impact conditions loading the abdomen. The corresponding 104 simulations were compared to the responses of the PMHS and to the responses of the baseline models without scaling (28 simulations). The responses were analysed using the CORA method and peak values. The results suggest that model scaling leads to an improvement of the predicted force and deflection but has more marginal effects on the predicted abdominal compressions. M50 and F05 models scaled to the same PMHS were also found to have similar external responses, but large differences were found between the two sets of models for the strain energy densities in the liver and the spleen for mid-abdomen impact simulations. These differences, which were attributed to the anatomical differences in the abdomen of the baseline models, highlight the importance of the selection of the impact condition for simulation studies, especially if the organ location is not known in the test. While the methodology could be further improved, it shows the feasibility of using model scaling methodologies to compare human models of different sizes and to evaluate scaling approaches within the context of human model validation.

The Deflection Question

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenberg, A. H.; Nesvold, E.; van Heerden, E.; Erasmus, N.; Marchis, F.

2016-12-01

On 15 February, 2013, a 15 m diameter asteroid entered the Earth's atmosphere over Russia. The resulting shockwave injured nearly 1500 people, and incurred 33 million (USD) in infrastructure damages. The Chelyabinsk meteor served as a forceful demonstration of the threat posed to Earth by the hundreds of potentially hazardous objects (PHOs) that pass near the Earth every year. Although no objects have yet been discovered on an impact course for Earth, an impact is virtually statistically guaranteed at some point in the future. While many impactor deflection technologies have been proposed, humanity has yet to demonstrate the ability to divert an impactor when one is found. Developing and testing any single proposed technology will require significant research time and funding. This leaves open an obvious question - towards which technologies should funding and research be directed, in order to maximize our preparedness for when an impactor is eventually found? To help answer this question, we have created a detailed framework for analyzing various deflection technologies and their effectiveness. Using an n-body integrator (REBOUND), we have simulated the attempted deflections of a population of Earth-impacting objects with a variety of velocity perturbations (∂Vs), and measured the effects that these perturbations had on impact probability. We then mapped the ∂Vs applied in the orbital simulations to the technologies capable of achieving those perturbations, and analyzed which set of technologies would be most effective at preventing a PHO from impacting the earth. As a final step, we used the results of these simulations to train a machine learning algorithm. This algorithm, combined with a simulated PHO population, can predict which technologies are most likely to be needed. The algorithm can also reveal which impactor observables (mass, spin, orbit, etc.) have the greatest effect on the choice of deflection technology. These results can be used as a tool to inform funding decisions for both deflection technology development and PHO characterization missions.

The Deflector Selector: A Machine Learning Framework for Prioritizing Deflection Technology Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Heerden, Elmarie; Erasmus, Nicolas; Greenberg, Adam; Nesvold, Erika; Galache, Jose Luis; Dahlstrom, Eric; Marchis, Franck

2016-10-01

On 15 February, 2013, a ~15 m diameter asteroid entered the Earth's atmosphere over Russia. The resulting shockwave injured nearly 1500 people, and incurred ~33 million (USD) in infrastructure damages. The Chelyabinsk meteor served as a forceful demonstration of the threat posed to Earth by the hundreds of potentially hazardous objects (PHOs) that pass near the Earth every year. Although no objects have yet been discovered on an impact course for Earth, an impact is virtually statistically guaranteed at some point in the future. While many impactor deflection technologies have been proposed, humanity has yet to demonstrate the ability to divert an impactor when one is found. Developing and testing any single proposed technology will require significant research time and funding. This leaves open an obvious question - towards which technologies should funding and research be directed, in order to maximize our preparedness for when an impactor is eventually found?To help answer this question, we have created a detailed framework for analyzing various deflection technologies and their effectiveness. Using an n-body integrator (REBOUND), we have simulated the attempted deflections of a population of Earth-impacting objects with a variety of velocity perturbations (∂Vs), and measured the effects that these perturbations had on impact probability. We then mapped the ∂Vs applied in the orbital simulations to the technologies capable of achieving those perturbations, and analyzed which set of technologies would be most effective at preventing a PHO from impacting the earth. As a final step, we used the results of these simulations to train a machine learning algorithm. This algorithm, combined with a simulated PHO population, can predict which technologies are most likely to be needed. The algorithm can also reveal which impactor observables (mass, spin, orbit, etc.) have the greatest effect on the choice of deflection technology. These results can be used as a tool to inform funding decisions for both deflection technology development and PHO characterization missions.

The Impacts of Various Environments Factors and Adaptive Management Strategies on Food Crops in the 21st Century Based on a Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, A. K.; Lin, T. S.; Lawrence, P.; Kheshgi, H. S.

2017-12-01

Environmental factors - characterized by increasing levels of CO2, and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns - present potential risks to global food supply. To date, understanding of environmental factors' effects on crop production remains uncertain due to (1) uncertainties in projected trends of these factors and their spatial and temporal variability; (2) uncertainties in the physiological, genetic and molecular basis of crop adaptation to adaptive management practices (e.g. change in planting time, irrigation and N fertilization etc.) and (3) uncertainties in current land surface models to estimate the response of crop production to changes in environmental factors and management strategies. In this study we apply a process-based land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment model (ISAM), to assess the impact of various environmental factors and management strategies on the production of row crops (corn, soybean and wheat) at regional and global scales. Results are compared to corresponding simulations performed with the crop model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Each model is driven with historical atmospheric forcing data (1901-2005), and projected atmospheric forcing data under RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 (2006-2100) from CESM CMIP5 simulations to estimate the effects of different climate change projections on potential productivity of food crops at a global scale. For each set of atmospheric forcing data, production of each crop is simulated with and without inclusion of adaptive management practices (e.g. application of irrigation, N fertilization, change in planting time and crop cultivars etc.) to assess the effect of adaptation on projected crop production over the 21st century. In detail, three questions are addressed: (1) what is the impact of different climate change projections on global crop production; (2) what is the effect of adaptive management practices on projected crop production; and (3) how do differences in model mechanisms in ISAM and CLM4.5 impact projected global crop production and adaptive management practices (irrigation and N fertilizer) over the 21st century. The major outcomes of this study will help to understand the uncertainties in potential productivity of food crops under different environmental conditions and management practices.

Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction.

PubMed

Baruffi, F; Cisotto, A; Cimolino, A; Ferri, M; Monego, M; Norbiato, D; Cappelletto, M; Bisaglia, M; Pretner, A; Galli, A; Scarinci, A; Marsala, V; Panelli, C; Gualdi, S; Bucchignani, E; Torresan, S; Pasini, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced information about the potential variations of the water balance components (e.g. river discharge, groundwater level and volume) due to climate change. Such projections were used to develop potential hazard scenarios for the case study area, to be further applied within climate change risk assessment studies for groundwater resources and associated ecosystems. This paper describes the models' chain and the methodological approach adopted in the TRUST project and analyzes the hazard scenarios produced in order to investigate climate change risks for the case study area. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.