Linking long-term planetary N-body simulations with periodic orbits: application to white dwarf pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoniadou, Kyriaki I.; Veras, Dimitri

2016-12-01

Mounting discoveries of debris discs orbiting newly formed stars and white dwarfs (WDs) showcase the importance of modelling the long-term evolution of small bodies in exosystems. WD debris discs are, in particular, thought to form from very long-term (0.1-5.0 Gyr) instability between planets and asteroids. However, the time-consuming nature of N-body integrators which accurately simulate motion over Gyrs necessitates a judicious choice of initial conditions. The analytical tools known as periodic orbits can circumvent the guesswork. Here, we begin a comprehensive analysis directly linking periodic orbits with N-body integration outcomes with an extensive exploration of the planar circular restricted three-body problem (CRTBP) with an outer planet and inner asteroid near or inside of the 2:1 mean motion resonance. We run nearly 1000 focused simulations for the entire age of the Universe (14 Gyr) with initial conditions mapped to the phase space locations surrounding the unstable and stable periodic orbits for that commensurability. In none of our simulations did the planar CRTBP architecture yield a long-time-scale (≳0.25 per cent of the age of the Universe) asteroid-star collision. The pericentre distance of asteroids which survived beyond this time-scale (≈35 Myr) varied by at most about 60 per cent. These results help affirm that collisions occur too quickly to explain WD pollution in the planar CRTBP 2:1 regime, and highlight the need for further periodic orbit studies with the eccentric and inclined TBP architectures and other significant orbital period commensurabilities.

Photonic time crystals.

PubMed

Zeng, Lunwu; Xu, Jin; Wang, Chengen; Zhang, Jianhua; Zhao, Yuting; Zeng, Jing; Song, Runxia

2017-12-07

When space (time) translation symmetry is spontaneously broken, the space crystal (time crystal) forms; when permittivity and permeability periodically vary with space (time), the photonic crystal (photonic time crystal) forms. We proposed the concept of photonic time crystal and rewritten the Maxwell's equations. Utilizing Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) method, we simulated electromagnetic wave propagation in photonic time crystal and photonic space-time crystal, the simulation results show that more intensive scatter fields can obtained in photonic time crystal and photonic space-time crystal.

Discrete-time switching periodic adaptive control for time-varying parameters with unknown periodicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Miao; Huang, Deqing; Yang, Wanqiu

2018-06-01

In this paper, we address the problem of unknown periodicity for a class of discrete-time nonlinear parametric systems without assuming any growth conditions on the nonlinearities. The unknown periodicity hides in the parametric uncertainties, which is difficult to estimate with existing techniques. By incorporating a logic-based switching mechanism, we identify the period and bound of unknown parameter simultaneously. Lyapunov-based analysis is given to demonstrate that a finite number of switchings can guarantee the asymptotic tracking for the nonlinear parametric systems. The simulation result also shows the efficacy of the proposed switching periodic adaptive control approach.

The DeepMIP Contribution to PMIP4: Experimental Design for Model Simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lunt, Daniel J.; Huber, Matthew; Anagnostou, Eleni; Baatsen, Michiel L. J.; Caballero, Rodrigo; DeConto, Rob; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Donnadieu, Yannick; Evans, David; Feng, Ran;

Medical simulation in interventional cardiology: "More research is needed".

PubMed

Tajti, Peter; Brilakis, Emmanouil S

2018-05-01

Medical simulation is being used for training fellows to perform coronary angiography. Medical simulation training was associated with 2 min less fluoroscopy time per case after adjustment. Whether medical simulation really works needs to be evaluated in additional, well-designed and executed clinical studies. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Global exponential periodicity and stability of discrete-time complex-valued recurrent neural networks with time-delays.

PubMed

Hu, Jin; Wang, Jun

2015-06-01

In recent years, complex-valued recurrent neural networks have been developed and analysed in-depth in view of that they have good modelling performance for some applications involving complex-valued elements. In implementing continuous-time dynamical systems for simulation or computational purposes, it is quite necessary to utilize a discrete-time model which is an analogue of the continuous-time system. In this paper, we analyse a discrete-time complex-valued recurrent neural network model and obtain the sufficient conditions on its global exponential periodicity and exponential stability. Simulation results of several numerical examples are delineated to illustrate the theoretical results and an application on associative memory is also given. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prior video game utilization is associated with improved performance on a robotic skills simulator.

PubMed

Harbin, Andrew C; Nadhan, Kumar S; Mooney, James H; Yu, Daohai; Kaplan, Joshua; McGinley-Hence, Nora; Kim, Andrew; Gu, Yiming; Eun, Daniel D

2017-09-01

Laparoscopic surgery and robotic surgery, two forms of minimally invasive surgery (MIS), have recently experienced a large increase in utilization. Prior studies have shown that video game experience (VGE) may be associated with improved laparoscopic surgery skills; however, similar data supporting a link between VGE and proficiency on a robotic skills simulator (RSS) are lacking. The objective of our study is to determine whether volume or timing of VGE had any impact on RSS performance. Pre-clinical medical students completed a comprehensive questionnaire detailing previous VGE across several time periods. Seventy-five subjects were ultimately evaluated in 11 training exercises on the daVinci Si Skills Simulator. RSS skill was measured by overall score, time to completion, economy of motion, average instrument collision, and improvement in Ring Walk 3 score. Using the nonparametric tests and linear regression, these metrics were analyzed for systematic differences between non-users, light, and heavy video game users based on their volume of use in each of the following four time periods: past 3 months, past year, past 3 years, and high school. Univariate analyses revealed significant differences between heavy and non-users in all five performance metrics. These trends disappeared as the period of VGE went further back. Our study showed a positive association between video game experience and robotic skills simulator performance that is stronger for more recent periods of video game use. The findings may have important implications for the evolution of robotic surgery training.

New NASA 3D Animation Shows Seven Days of Simulated Earth Weather

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-08-11

This visualization shows early test renderings of a global computational model of Earth's atmosphere based on data from NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5). This particular run, called Nature Run 2, was run on a supercomputer, spanned 2 years of simulation time at 30 minute intervals, and produced Petabytes of output. The visualization spans a little more than 7 days of simulation time which is 354 time steps. The time period was chosen because a simulated category-4 typhoon developed off the coast of China. The 7 day period is repeated several times during the course of the visualization. Credit: NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio Read more or download here: svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/goto?4180 NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Using Coupled Groundwater-Surface Water Models to Simulate Eco-Regional Differences in Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Drought Regimes in British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dierauer, J. R.; Allen, D. M.

2016-12-01

Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in extremes, including daily maximum temperatures, heat waves, and meteorological droughts, which will likely result in shifts in the hydrological drought regime (i.e. the frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events). While many studies have used hydrologic models to simulate climate change impacts on water resources, only a small portion of these studies have analyzed impacts on low flows and/or hydrological drought. This study is the first to use a fully coupled groundwater-surface water (gw-sw) model to study climate change impacts on hydrological drought. Generic catchment-scale gw-sw models were created for each of the six major eco-regions in British Columbia using the MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11 modelling code. Daily precipitation and temperature time series downscaled using bias-correction spatial disaggregation for the simulated period of 1950-2100 were obtained from the Pacific Climate Institute Consortium (PCIC). Streamflow and groundwater drought events were identified from the simulated time series for each catchment model using the moving window quantile threshold. The frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events were compared between the reference period (1961-2000) and two future time periods (2031-2060, 2071-2100). Results show how hydrological drought regimes across the different British Columbia eco-regions will be impacted by climate change.

Direct solar-pumped iodine laser amplifier

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, K. S.

1986-01-01

During this period the parametric studies of the iodine laser oscillator pumped by a Vortek simulator were carried out before amplifier studies. The amplifier studies are postponed to the extended period after completing the parametric studies. In addition, the kinetic modeling of a solar-pumped iodine laser amplifier, and the experimental work for a solar pumped dye laser amplifier are in progress. This report contains three parts: (1) a 10 W CW iodine laser pumped by a Vortek solar simulator; (2) kinetic modeling to predict the time to lasing threshold, lasing time, and energy output of solar-pumped iodine laser; and (3) the study of the dye laser amplifier pumped by a Tamarack solar simulator.

Dynamic Simulation over Long Time Periods with 100% Solar Generation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Concepcion, Ricky James; Elliott, Ryan Thomas

2015-12-01

This project aimed to identify the path forward for dynamic simulation tools to accommodate these needs by characterizing the properties of power systems (with high PV penetration), analyzing how these properties affect dynamic simulation software, and offering solutions for potential problems.

Smith predictor-based multiple periodic disturbance compensation for long dead-time processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Fang; Li, Han-Xiong; Shen, Ping

2018-05-01

Many disturbance rejection methods have been proposed for processes with dead-time, while these existing methods may not work well under multiple periodic disturbances. In this paper, a multiple periodic disturbance rejection is proposed under the Smith predictor configuration for processes with long dead-time. One feedback loop is added to compensate periodic disturbance while retaining the advantage of the Smith predictor. With information of the disturbance spectrum, the added feedback loop can remove multiple periodic disturbances effectively. The robust stability can be easily maintained through the rigorous analysis. Finally, simulation examples demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method for processes with long dead-time.

LPJ-GUESS Simulated North America Vegetation for 21-0 ka Using the TraCE-21ka Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2016-12-01

Transient climate simulations that span multiple millennia (e.g., TraCE-21ka) have become more common as computing power has increased, allowing climate models to complete long simulations in relatively short periods of time (i.e., months). These climate simulations provide information on the potential rate, variability, and spatial expression of past climate changes. They also can be used as input data for other environmental models to simulate transient changes for different components of paleoenvironmental systems, such as vegetation. Long, transient paleovegetation simulations can provide information on a range of ecological processes, describe the spatial and temporal patterns of changes in species distributions, and identify the potential locations of past species refugia. Paleovegetation simulations also can be used to fill in spatial and temporal gaps in observed paleovegetation data (e.g., pollen records from lake sediments) and to test hypotheses of past vegetation change. We used the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation for 21-0 ka from CCSM3, a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The TraCE-21ka simulated temperature, precipitation, and cloud data were regridded onto a 10-minute grid of North America. These regridded climate data, along with soil data and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, were used as input to LPJ-GUESS, a general ecosystem model, to simulate North America vegetation from 21-0 ka. LPJ-GUESS simulates many of the processes controlling the distribution of vegetation (e.g., competition), although some important processes (e.g., dispersal) are not simulated. We evaluate the LPJ-GUESS-simulated vegetation (in the form of plant functional types and biomes) for key time periods and compare the simulated vegetation with observed paleovegetation data, such as data archived in the Neotoma Paleoecology Database. In general, vegetation simulated by LPJ-GUESS reproduces the major North America vegetation patterns (e.g., forest, grassland) with regional areas of disagreement between simulated and observed vegetation. We describe the regions and time periods with the greatest data-model agreement and disagreement, and discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of both the simulated climate and simulated vegetation data.

Large-Scale Simulation of Multi-Asset Ising Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaishi, Tetsuya

2017-03-01

We perform a large-scale simulation of an Ising-based financial market model that includes 300 asset time series. The financial system simulated by the model shows a fat-tailed return distribution and volatility clustering and exhibits unstable periods indicated by the volatility index measured as the average of absolute-returns. Moreover, we determine that the cumulative risk fraction, which measures the system risk, changes at high volatility periods. We also calculate the inverse participation ratio (IPR) and its higher-power version, IPR6, from the absolute-return cross-correlation matrix. Finally, we show that the IPR and IPR6 also change at high volatility periods.

Simulation of high-energy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAX-VERB coupled codes

PubMed Central

Pakhotin, I P; Drozdov, A Y; Shprits, Y Y; Boynton, R J; Subbotin, D A; Balikhin, M A

2014-01-01

This study presents a fusion of data-driven and physics-driven methodologies of energetic electron flux forecasting in the outer radiation belt. Data-driven NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Averages with eXogenous inputs) model predictions for geosynchronous orbit fluxes have been used as an outer boundary condition to drive the physics-based Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, to simulate energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt environment. The coupled system has been tested for three extended time periods totalling several weeks of observations. The time periods involved periods of quiet, moderate, and strong geomagnetic activity and captured a range of dynamics typical of the radiation belts. The model has successfully simulated energetic electron fluxes for various magnetospheric conditions. Physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the discrepancies between the model results and observations are discussed. PMID:26167432

Just-in-time Time Data Analytics and Visualization of Climate Simulations using the Bellerophon Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anantharaj, V. G.; Venzke, J.; Lingerfelt, E.; Messer, B.

2015-12-01

Climate model simulations are used to understand the evolution and variability of earth's climate. Unfortunately, high-resolution multi-decadal climate simulations can take days to weeks to complete. Typically, the simulation results are not analyzed until the model runs have ended. During the course of the simulation, the output may be processed periodically to ensure that the model is preforming as expected. However, most of the data analytics and visualization are not performed until the simulation is finished. The lengthy time period needed for the completion of the simulation constrains the productivity of climate scientists. Our implementation of near real-time data visualization analytics capabilities allows scientists to monitor the progress of their simulations while the model is running. Our analytics software executes concurrently in a co-scheduling mode, monitoring data production. When new data are generated by the simulation, a co-scheduled data analytics job is submitted to render visualization artifacts of the latest results. These visualization output are automatically transferred to Bellerophon's data server located at ORNL's Compute and Data Environment for Science (CADES) where they are processed and archived into Bellerophon's database. During the course of the experiment, climate scientists can then use Bellerophon's graphical user interface to view animated plots and their associated metadata. The quick turnaround from the start of the simulation until the data are analyzed permits research decisions and projections to be made days or sometimes even weeks sooner than otherwise possible! The supercomputer resources used to run the simulation are unaffected by co-scheduling the data visualization jobs, so the model runs continuously while the data are visualized. Our just-in-time data visualization software looks to increase climate scientists' productivity as climate modeling moves into exascale era of computing.

Real-time dynamic simulation of the Cassini spacecraft using DARTS. Part 2: Parallel/vectorized real-time implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fijany, A.; Roberts, J. A.; Jain, A.; Man, G. K.

1993-01-01

Part 1 of this paper presented the requirements for the real-time simulation of Cassini spacecraft along with some discussion of the DARTS algorithm. Here, in Part 2 we discuss the development and implementation of parallel/vectorized DARTS algorithm and architecture for real-time simulation. Development of the fast algorithms and architecture for real-time hardware-in-the-loop simulation of spacecraft dynamics is motivated by the fact that it represents a hard real-time problem, in the sense that the correctness of the simulation depends on both the numerical accuracy and the exact timing of the computation. For a given model fidelity, the computation should be computed within a predefined time period. Further reduction in computation time allows increasing the fidelity of the model (i.e., inclusion of more flexible modes) and the integration routine.

DNS of Flows over Periodic Hills using a Discontinuous-Galerkin Spectral-Element Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diosady, Laslo T.; Murman, Scott M.

2014-01-01

Direct numerical simulation (DNS) of turbulent compressible flows is performed using a higher-order space-time discontinuous-Galerkin finite-element method. The numerical scheme is validated by performing DNS of the evolution of the Taylor-Green vortex and turbulent flow in a channel. The higher-order method is shown to provide increased accuracy relative to low-order methods at a given number of degrees of freedom. The turbulent flow over a periodic array of hills in a channel is simulated at Reynolds number 10,595 using an 8th-order scheme in space and a 4th-order scheme in time. These results are validated against previous large eddy simulation (LES) results. A preliminary analysis provides insight into how these detailed simulations can be used to improve Reynoldsaveraged Navier-Stokes (RANS) modeling

Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris

DOEpatents

Nikolaev, Sergei; De Vries, Willem H.; Henderson, John R.; Horsley, Matthew A.; Jiang, Ming; Levatin, Joanne L.; Olivier, Scot S.; Pertica, Alexander J.; Phillion, Donald W.; Springer, Harry K.

2017-03-07

A space object modeling system that models the evolution of space debris is provided. The modeling system simulates interaction of space objects at simulation times throughout a simulation period. The modeling system includes a propagator that calculates the position of each object at each simulation time based on orbital parameters. The modeling system also includes a collision detector that, for each pair of objects at each simulation time, performs a collision analysis. When the distance between objects satisfies a conjunction criterion, the modeling system calculates a local minimum distance between the pair of objects based on a curve fitting to identify a time of closest approach at the simulation times and calculating the position of the objects at the identified time. When the local minimum distance satisfies a collision criterion, the modeling system models the debris created by the collision of the pair of objects.

A Global Three-Dimensional Radiation Hydrodynamic Simulation of a Self-Gravitating Accretion Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillipson, Rebecca; Vogeley, Michael S.; McMillan, Stephen; Boyd, Patricia

2018-01-01

We present three-dimensional, radiation hydrodynamic simulations of initially thin accretion disks with self-gravity using the grid-based code PLUTO. We produce simulated light curves and spectral energy distributions and compare to observational data of X-ray binary (XRB) and active galactic nuclei (AGN) variability. These simulations are of interest for modeling the role of radiation in accretion physics across decades of mass and frequency. In particular, the characteristics of the time variability in various bandwidths can probe the timescales over which different physical processes dominate the accretion flow. For example, in the case of some XRBs, superorbital periods much longer than the companion orbital period have been observed. Smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) calculations have shown that irradiation-driven warping could be the mechanism underlying these long periods. In the case of AGN, irradiation-driven warping is also predicted to occur in addition to strong outflows originating from thermal and radiation pressure driving forces, which are important processes in understanding feedback and star formation in active galaxies. We compare our simulations to various toy models via traditional time series analysis of our synthetic and observed light curves.

MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS OF PERIODIC PULSED REACTOR WITH MOVING GEOMETRY PARTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cao, Yan; Gohar, Yousry

2015-11-01

In a periodic pulsed reactor, the reactor state varies periodically from slightly subcritical to slightly prompt supercritical for producing periodic power pulses. Such periodic state change is accomplished by a periodic movement of specific reactor parts, such as control rods or reflector sections. The analysis of such reactor is difficult to perform with the current reactor physics computer programs. Based on past experience, the utilization of the point kinetics approximations gives considerable errors in predicting the magnitude and the shape of the power pulse if the reactor has significantly different neutron life times in different zones. To accurately simulate themore » dynamics of this type of reactor, a Monte Carlo procedure using the transfer function TRCL/TR of the MCNP/MCNPX computer programs is utilized to model the movable reactor parts. In this paper, two algorithms simulating the geometry part movements during a neutron history tracking have been developed. Several test cases have been developed to evaluate these procedures. The numerical test cases have shown that the developed algorithms can be utilized to simulate the reactor dynamics with movable geometry parts.« less

Development of a precipitation-runoff model to simulate unregulated streamflow in the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, K.J.

2011-01-01

This report documents the development of a precipitation-runoff model for the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Mont. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, developed in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, can be used to simulate daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream and downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir for water-resources planning. Two input files are required to run the model. The time-series data file contains daily precipitation data and daily minimum and maximum air-temperature data from climate stations in and near the South Fork Flathead River Basin. The parameter file contains values of parameters that describe the basin topography, the flow network, the distribution of the precipitation and temperature data, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. A primary-parameter file was created for simulating streamflow during the study period (water years 1967-2005). The model was calibrated for water years 1991-2005 using the primary-parameter file. This calibration was further refined using snow-covered area data for water years 2001-05. The model then was tested for water years 1967-90. Calibration targets included mean monthly and daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, mean monthly unregulated streamflow downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration, and daily snapshots of basin snow-covered area. Simulated streamflow generally was in better agreement with observed streamflow at the upstream gage than at the downstream gage. Upstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was within 0.0 percent of observed mean annual streamflow for the calibration period and was about 2 percent higher than observed mean annual streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow upstream from the reservoir was about 1 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and about 4 percent higher than observed for the test period. Downstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was 17 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 12 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow downstream from the reservoir was 13 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 6 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Calibrating to solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, and snow-covered area improved the model representation of evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, and snowmelt processes. Simulated basin mean monthly solar radiation values for both the calibration and test periods were within 9 percent of observed values except during the month of December (28 percent different). Simulated basin potential evapotranspiration values for both the calibration and test periods were within 10 percent of observed values except during the months of January (100 percent different) and February (13 percent different). The larger percent errors in simulated potential evaporation occurred in the winter months when observed potential evapotranspiration values were very small; in January the observed value was 0.000 inches and in February the observed value was 0.009 inches. Simulated start of melting of the snowpack occurred at about the same time as observed start of melting. The simulated snowpack accumulated to 90-100 percent snow-covered area 1 to 3 months earlier than observed snowpack. This overestimated snowpack during the winter corresponded to underestimated streamflow during the same period. In addition to the primary-parameter file, four other parameter files were created: for a "recent" period (1991-2005), a historical period (1967-90), a "wet" period (1989-97), and a "dry" period (1998-2005). For each data file of projected precipitation and air temperature, a single parameter file can be used to simulate a s

Sensitivity of soil moisture initialization for decadal predictions under different regional climatic conditions in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodayar, S.; Sehlinger, A.; Feldmann, H.; Kottmeier, C.

2015-12-01

The impact of soil initialization is investigated through perturbation simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The focus of the investigation is to assess the sensitivity of simulated extreme periods, dry and wet, to soil moisture initialization in different climatic regions over Europe and to establish the necessary spin up time within the framework of decadal predictions for these regions. Sensitivity experiments consisted of a reference simulation from 1968 to 1999 and 5 simulations from 1972 to 1983. The Effective Drought Index (EDI) is used to select and quantify drought status in the reference run to establish the simulation time period for the sensitivity experiments. Different soil initialization procedures are investigated. The sensitivity of the decadal predictions to soil moisture initial conditions is investigated through the analysis of water cycle components' (WCC) variability. In an episodic time scale the local effects of soil moisture on the boundary-layer and the propagated effects on the large-scale dynamics are analysed. The results show: (a) COSMO-CLM reproduces the observed features of the drought index. (b) Soil moisture initialization exerts a relevant impact on WCC, e.g., precipitation distribution and intensity. (c) Regional characteristics strongly impact the response of the WCC. Precipitation and evapotranspiration deviations are larger for humid regions. (d) The initial soil conditions (wet/dry), the regional characteristics (humid/dry) and the annual period (wet/dry) play a key role in the time that soil needs to restore quasi-equilibrium and the impact on the atmospheric conditions. Humid areas, and for all regions, a humid initialization, exhibit shorter spin up times, also soil reacts more sensitive when initialised during dry periods. (e) The initial soil perturbation may markedly modify atmospheric pressure field, wind circulation systems and atmospheric water vapour distribution affecting atmospheric stability conditions, thus modifying precipitation intensity and distribution even several years after the initialization.

A numerical investigation of surface-induced mesocyclogenesis near the Gulf Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cione, Joseph J.; Raman, Sethu

1995-10-01

A series of numerical experiments designed to simulate the initial development stages of low-level coastal mesocyclogenesis near the Gulf Stream was recently conducted. Under initially quiescent conditions, surface cyclogenesis in the control simulation occurs along a Gulf Stream meander in a region where the gradients in sea surface temperature (SST) are maximized. A low-level mesovortex on the order of 140km forms approximately 12 h into the simulation and continues to intensify through 42h. During the 24 48 h time period, a mesoscale frontal feature develops in direct response to strong diabatic forcing associated with sustained surface latent and sensible heating near the Gulf Stream frontal zone south of the main circulation center. Due to the non-linear advection of the frontal feature during this time period, the previously quasi-stationary circulation center drifts eastward (and away) from the thermal forcing associated with the large SST gradients found to the west. This eastward frontal propagation acts to decrease the magnitude of the low level horizontal air temperature gradient near the center of circulation throughout the 24 42 h development period. During the 42 48-h period, the relatively quick moving frontal feature acts to severely shear the nearly stationary center of circulation in the east west direction. As a result, the mesoscale system begins to fill during the final 6 h of integration. In addition to the control simulation, additional sensitivity experiments were conducted. These experiments were specifically designed to: (1) investigate how the magnitude of the Gulf Stream SST gradients affect the timing and degree of cyclonic development; (2) address the impact surface moisture fluxes and moist convection each have on the simulated low level mesocyclogenesis; (3) isolate the role surface sensible heating plays in the overall development of the simulated mesocyclone. Results from the SST gradient experiment indicate that a moderate enhancement of the SST distribution significantly affects the timing of the initial cyclogenesis and the maximum intensity of the simulated frontal circulation. For the "no turbulent heat flux" experiment, it appears that the elimination of surface sensible heating does not radically alter the overall structure of the simulated mesocyclone. However, the rate of development during the early stage of cyclogenesis, the absolute peak intensity of the system as well as the vertical depth of the simulated mesoscale frontal feature were all noticeably reduced when compared with the control simulation. The initial development of a closed low level circulation was delayed by nearly 18 h in the absence surface latent heat fluxes. Once formed, the system intensified throughout the 48-h period of integration, but unlike the control experiment, a mesoscale frontal feature south of the main circulation center was not simulated. Results from the "no surface moisture flux/no moist convection" simulation illustrate that moist convective processes play a dominant role in the overall development of the mesoscale cyclone. For this particular case, a weak and extremely shallow circulation was simulated after 24h. This circulation quickly eroded however, and was virtually non-existent for integration times greater than 39h.

Effects of recharge, Upper Floridan aquifer heads, and time scale on simulated ground-water exchange with Lake Starr, a seepage lake in central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swancar, Amy; Lee, Terrie Mackin

2003-01-01

Lake Starr and other lakes in the mantled karst terrain of Florida's Central Lake District are surrounded by a conductive surficial aquifer system that receives highly variable recharge from rainfall. In addition, downward leakage from these lakes varies as heads in the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer change seasonally and with pumpage. A saturated three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model was used to simulate the effects of recharge, Upper Floridan aquifer heads, and model time scale on ground-water exchange with Lake Starr. The lake was simulated as an active part of the model using high hydraulic conductivity cells. Simulated ground-water flow was compared to net ground-water flow estimated from a rigorously derived water budget for the 2-year period August 1996-July 1998. Calibrating saturated ground-water flow models with monthly stress periods to a monthly lake water budget will result in underpredicting gross inflow to, and leakage from, ridge lakes in Florida. Underprediction of ground-water inflow occurs because recharge stresses and ground-water flow responses during rainy periods are averaged over too long a time period using monthly stress periods. When inflow is underestimated during calibration, leakage also is underestimated because inflow and leakage are correlated if lake stage is maintained over the long term. Underpredicted leakage reduces the implied effect of ground-water withdrawals from the Upper Floridan aquifer on the lake. Calibrating the weekly simulation required accounting for transient responses in the water table near the lake that generated the greater range of net ground-water flow values seen in the weekly water budget. Calibrating to the weekly lake water budget also required increasing the value of annual recharge in the nearshore region well above the initial estimate of 35 percent of the rainfall, and increasing the hydraulic conductivity of the deposits around and beneath the lake. To simulate the total ground-water inflow to lakes, saturated-flow models of lake basins need to account for the potential effects of rapid and efficient recharge in the surficial aquifer system closest to the lake. In this part of the basin, the ability to accurately estimate recharge is crucial because the water table is shallowest and the response time between rainfall and recharge is shortest. Use of the one-dimensional LEACHM model to simulate the effects of the unsaturated zone on the timing and magnitude of recharge in the nearshore improved the simulation of peak values of ground-water inflow to Lake Starr. Results of weekly simulations suggest that weekly recharge can approach the majority of weekly rainfall on the nearshore part of the lake basin. However, even though a weekly simulation with higher recharge in the nearshore was able to reproduce the extremes of ground-water exchange with the lake more accurately, it was not consistently better at predicting net ground-water flow within the water budget error than a simulation with lower recharge. The more subtle effects of rainfall and recharge on ground-water inflow to the lake were more difficult to simulate. The use of variably saturated flow modeling, with time scales that are shorter than weekly and finer spatial discretization, is probably necessary to understand these processes. The basin-wide model of Lake Starr had difficulty simulating the full spectrum of ground-water inflows observed in the water budget because of insufficient information about recharge to ground water, and because of practical limits on spatial and temporal discretization in a model at this scale. In contrast, the saturated flow model appeared to successfully simulate the effects of heads in the Upper Floridan aquifer on water levels and ground-water exchange with the lake at both weekly and monthly stress periods. Most of the variability in lake leakage can be explained by the average vertical head difference between the lake and a re

Wind Wave Climate of the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medvedeva, Alisa

2017-04-01

Storms in the Baltic Sea in autumn and winter are very frequent. In this research the goal is to estimate decadal and interannual changes of the wave fields for the entire Baltic Sea. The wave parameters, such as significant wave heights and periods, were simulated for the period 1979-2015 years based on NCEP/CFSR Reanalysis data fields and for the period 1948-2010 years based on NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data. For accuracy estimation of the model the statistical characteristics, such as correlation coefficient, bias, scatter index and RMSE were calculated. Also two computational meshes were compared: rectangular and triangulated. In this study the third generation spectral wind-wave model SWAN was used for simulations. For wind input data two types of wind reanalysis were chosen: NCEP/CFSR with 1-hour time step and NCEP/NCAR with time step of 6 hours. The final computational grid for rectangular mesh for the Baltic Sea is 0.05×0.05°. The simulated data were compared with instrumental data of the Sweden buoys and of the acoustic wave recorder fixed at the Russian oil platform. The results reveal that for the Baltic Sea it is more efficient to use rectangular mesh for the deep open area and irregular mesh near the coast. Simulations using wind data from NCEP/NCAR significantly decreases the quality of the results compared with NCEP/CFSR wind data: Bias increases in 10 times (-0.730), RMSE - in 2-3 times (0.89). The following results of numerical modeling using NCEP/NCAR the storm situations, when the significant wave height exceeded 2 meters, were identified for the 63-year period. An average of about 50 storms per year happened in the Baltic Sea in this time period. The storminess of the Baltic Sea tends to increase. The twenty-year periodicity with the increase in the 70-s and 90-s years of XX century was revealed. The average yearly significant wave height increases in the second part of the century too and differs from 2.4 to 3.3 m. Storm cyclones are connected with the global atmosphere circulation patterns. According to similar research of the other west seas of Russia by the analogous methods, such kind of twenty-year periodicity was identified for the Caspian Sea and the Sea of Azov, but the storminess there for the period from 1948 to 2010 decreases.

An alternative way to evaluate chemistry-transport model variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menut, Laurent; Mailler, Sylvain; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Siour, Guillaume; Colette, Augustin; Couvidat, Florian; Meleux, Frédérik

2017-03-01

A simple and complementary model evaluation technique for regional chemistry transport is discussed. The methodology is based on the concept that we can learn about model performance by comparing the simulation results with observational data available for time periods other than the period originally targeted. First, the statistical indicators selected in this study (spatial and temporal correlations) are computed for a given time period, using colocated observation and simulation data in time and space. Second, the same indicators are used to calculate scores for several other years while conserving the spatial locations and Julian days of the year. The difference between the results provides useful insights on the model capability to reproduce the observed day-to-day and spatial variability. In order to synthesize the large amount of results, a new indicator is proposed, designed to compare several error statistics between all the years of validation and to quantify whether the period and area being studied were well captured by the model for the correct reasons.

Stream network and stream segment temperature models software

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholow, John

2010-01-01

This set of programs simulates steady-state stream temperatures throughout a dendritic stream network handling multiple time periods per year. The software requires a math co-processor and 384K RAM. Also included is a program (SSTEMP) designed to predict the steady state stream temperature within a single stream segment for a single time period.

An Adaptive Multiscale Finite Element Method for Large Scale Simulations

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-28

Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Abstract Hypersonic vehicles are subjected to extreme acoustic, thermal and mechanical loading with strong spatial and temporal...07/15/2012 Reporting Period End Date 07/14/2015 Abstract Hypersonic vehicles are subjected to extreme acoustic, thermal and mechanical loading with...gradients and for extended periods of time. Long duration, 3-D simulations of non-linear response of these vehicles , is prohibitively expensive using

A precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow conditions in the Smith River watershed, Montana, water years 1996-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Caldwell, Rodney R.; Stanley, Andrea K.

2014-01-01

This report documents the construction of a precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow in the Smith River watershed, Montana. This Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, constructed in cooperation with the Meagher County Conservation District, can be used to examine the general hydrologic framework of the Smith River watershed, including quantification of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow; partitioning of streamflow between surface runoff and subsurface flow; and quantifying contributions to streamflow from several parts of the watershed. The model was constructed by using spatial datasets describing watershed topography, the streams, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. Time-series data (daily total precipitation, and daily minimum and maximum temperature) were input to the model to simulate daily streamflow. The model was calibrated for water years 2002–2007 and evaluated for water years 1996–2001. Though water year 2008 was included in the study period to evaluate water-budget components, calibration and evaluation data were unavailable for that year. During the calibration and evaluation periods, simulated-natural flow values were compared to reconstructed-natural streamflow data. These reconstructed-natural streamflow data were calculated by adding Bureau of Reclamation’s depletions data to the observed streamflows. Reconstructed-natural streamflows represent estimates of streamflows for water years 1996–2007 assuming there was no agricultural water-resources development in the watershed. Additional calibration targets were basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration. The model estimated the hydrologic processes in the Smith River watershed during the calibration and evaluation periods. Simulated-natural mean annual and mean monthly flows generally were the same or higher than the reconstructed-natural streamflow values during the calibration period, whereas they were lower during the evaluation period. The shape of the annual hydrographs for the simulated-natural daily streamflow values matched the shape of the hydrographs for the reconstructed-natural values for most of the calibration period, but daily streamflow values were underestimated during the evaluation period for water years 1996–1998. The model enabled a detailed evaluation of the components of the water budget within the Smith River watershed during the water year 1996–2008 study period. During this study period, simulated mean annual precipitation across the Smith River watershed was 16 inches, out of which 14 inches evaporated or transpired and 2 inches left the basin as streamflow. Per the precipitation-runoff model simulations, during most of the year, surface runoff rarely (less than 2 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008) makes up more than 10 percent of the total streamflow. Subsurface flow (the combination of interflow and groundwater flow) makes up most of the total streamflow (99 or more percent of total streamflow for 71 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008).

GENESIS 1.1: A hybrid-parallel molecular dynamics simulator with enhanced sampling algorithms on multiple computational platforms.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Chigusa; Jung, Jaewoon; Matsunaga, Yasuhiro; Mori, Takaharu; Ando, Tadashi; Tamura, Koichi; Kamiya, Motoshi; Sugita, Yuji

2017-09-30

GENeralized-Ensemble SImulation System (GENESIS) is a software package for molecular dynamics (MD) simulation of biological systems. It is designed to extend limitations in system size and accessible time scale by adopting highly parallelized schemes and enhanced conformational sampling algorithms. In this new version, GENESIS 1.1, new functions and advanced algorithms have been added. The all-atom and coarse-grained potential energy functions used in AMBER and GROMACS packages now become available in addition to CHARMM energy functions. The performance of MD simulations has been greatly improved by further optimization, multiple time-step integration, and hybrid (CPU + GPU) computing. The string method and replica-exchange umbrella sampling with flexible collective variable choice are used for finding the minimum free-energy pathway and obtaining free-energy profiles for conformational changes of a macromolecule. These new features increase the usefulness and power of GENESIS for modeling and simulation in biological research. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Error analysis of high-rate GNSS precise point positioning for seismic wave measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Yuanming; Shi, Yun; Xu, Peiliang; Niu, Xiaoji; Liu, Jingnan

2017-06-01

High-rate GNSS precise point positioning (PPP) has been playing a more and more important role in providing precise positioning information in fast time-varying environments. Although kinematic PPP is commonly known to have a precision of a few centimeters, the precision of high-rate PPP within a short period of time has been reported recently with experiments to reach a few millimeters in the horizontal components and sub-centimeters in the vertical component to measure seismic motion, which is several times better than the conventional kinematic PPP practice. To fully understand the mechanism of mystified excellent performance of high-rate PPP within a short period of time, we have carried out a theoretical error analysis of PPP and conducted the corresponding simulations within a short period of time. The theoretical analysis has clearly indicated that the high-rate PPP errors consist of two types: the residual systematic errors at the starting epoch, which affect high-rate PPP through the change of satellite geometry, and the time-varying systematic errors between the starting epoch and the current epoch. Both the theoretical error analysis and simulated results are fully consistent with and thus have unambiguously confirmed the reported high precision of high-rate PPP, which has been further affirmed here by the real data experiments, indicating that high-rate PPP can indeed achieve the millimeter level of precision in the horizontal components and the sub-centimeter level of precision in the vertical component to measure motion within a short period of time. The simulation results have clearly shown that the random noise of carrier phases and higher order ionospheric errors are two major factors to affect the precision of high-rate PPP within a short period of time. The experiments with real data have also indicated that the precision of PPP solutions can degrade to the cm level in both the horizontal and vertical components, if the geometry of satellites is rather poor with a large DOP value.

[Spatial structure analysis and distribution simulation of Therioaphis trifolii population based on geostatistics and GIS].

PubMed

Zhang, Rong; Leng, Yun-fa; Zhu, Meng-meng; Wang, Fang

2007-11-01

Based on geographic information system and geostatistics, the spatial structure of Therioaphis trifolii population of different periods in Yuanzhou district of Guyuan City, the southern Ningxia Province, was analyzed. The spatial distribution of Therioaphis trifolii population was also simulated by ordinary Kriging interpretation. The results showed that Therioaphis trifolii population of different periods was correlated spatially in the study area. The semivariograms of Therioaphis trifolii could be described by exponential model, indicating an aggregated spatial arrangement. The spatial variance varied from 34.13%-48.77%, and the range varied from 8.751-12.049 km. The degree and direction of aggregation showed that the trend was increased gradually from southwest to northeast. The dynamic change of Therioaphis trifolii population in different periods could be analyzed intuitively on the simulated maps of the spatial distribution from the two aspects of time and space, The occurrence position and degree of Therioaphis trifolii to a state of certain time could be determined easily.

Space time modelling of air quality for environmental-risk maps: A case study in South Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soares, Amilcar; Pereira, Maria J.

2007-10-01

Since the 1960s, there has been a strong industrial development in the Sines area, on the southern Atlantic coast of Portugal, including the construction of an important industrial harbour and of, mainly, petrochemical and energy-related industries. These industries are, nowadays, responsible for substantial emissions of SO2, NOx, particles, VOCs and part of the ozone polluting the atmosphere. The major industries are spatially concentrated in a restricted area, very close to populated areas and natural resources such as those protected by the European Natura 2000 network. Air quality parameters are measured at the emissions' sources and at a few monitoring stations. Although air quality parameters are measured on an hourly basis, the lack of representativeness in space of these non-homogeneous phenomena makes even their representativeness in time questionable. Hence, in this study, the regional spatial dispersion of contaminants is also evaluated, using diffusive-sampler (Radiello Passive Sampler) campaigns during given periods. Diffusive samplers cover the entire space extensively, but just for a limited period of time. In the first step of this study, a space-time model of pollutants was built, based on a stochastic simulation-direct sequential simulation-with local spatial trend. The spatial dispersion of the contaminants for a given period of time-corresponding to the exposure time of the diffusive samplers-was computed by ordinary kriging. Direct sequential simulation was applied to produce equiprobable spatial maps for each day of that period, using the kriged map as a spatial trend and the daily measurements of pollutants from the monitoring stations as hard data. In the second step, the following environmental risk and costs maps were computed from the set of simulated realizations of pollutants: (i) maps of the contribution of each emission to the pollutant concentration at any spatial location; (ii) costs of badly located monitoring stations.

Using Simulation to Interpret a Discrete Time Survival Model in a Complex Biological System: Fertility and Lameness in Dairy Cows

PubMed Central

Hudson, Christopher D.; Huxley, Jonathan N.; Green, Martin J.

2014-01-01

The ever-growing volume of data routinely collected and stored in everyday life presents researchers with a number of opportunities to gain insight and make predictions. This study aimed to demonstrate the usefulness in a specific clinical context of a simulation-based technique called probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) in interpreting the results of a discrete time survival model based on a large dataset of routinely collected dairy herd management data. Data from 12,515 dairy cows (from 39 herds) were used to construct a multilevel discrete time survival model in which the outcome was the probability of a cow becoming pregnant during a given two day period of risk, and presence or absence of a recorded lameness event during various time frames relative to the risk period amongst the potential explanatory variables. A separate simulation model was then constructed to evaluate the wider clinical implications of the model results (i.e. the potential for a herd’s incidence rate of lameness to influence its overall reproductive performance) using PSA. Although the discrete time survival analysis revealed some relatively large associations between lameness events and risk of pregnancy (for example, occurrence of a lameness case within 14 days of a risk period was associated with a 25% reduction in the risk of the cow becoming pregnant during that risk period), PSA revealed that, when viewed in the context of a realistic clinical situation, a herd’s lameness incidence rate is highly unlikely to influence its overall reproductive performance to a meaningful extent in the vast majority of situations. Construction of a simulation model within a PSA framework proved to be a very useful additional step to aid contextualisation of the results from a discrete time survival model, especially where the research is designed to guide on-farm management decisions at population (i.e. herd) rather than individual level. PMID:25101997

Using simulation to interpret a discrete time survival model in a complex biological system: fertility and lameness in dairy cows.

PubMed

Hudson, Christopher D; Huxley, Jonathan N; Green, Martin J

2014-01-01

The ever-growing volume of data routinely collected and stored in everyday life presents researchers with a number of opportunities to gain insight and make predictions. This study aimed to demonstrate the usefulness in a specific clinical context of a simulation-based technique called probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) in interpreting the results of a discrete time survival model based on a large dataset of routinely collected dairy herd management data. Data from 12,515 dairy cows (from 39 herds) were used to construct a multilevel discrete time survival model in which the outcome was the probability of a cow becoming pregnant during a given two day period of risk, and presence or absence of a recorded lameness event during various time frames relative to the risk period amongst the potential explanatory variables. A separate simulation model was then constructed to evaluate the wider clinical implications of the model results (i.e. the potential for a herd's incidence rate of lameness to influence its overall reproductive performance) using PSA. Although the discrete time survival analysis revealed some relatively large associations between lameness events and risk of pregnancy (for example, occurrence of a lameness case within 14 days of a risk period was associated with a 25% reduction in the risk of the cow becoming pregnant during that risk period), PSA revealed that, when viewed in the context of a realistic clinical situation, a herd's lameness incidence rate is highly unlikely to influence its overall reproductive performance to a meaningful extent in the vast majority of situations. Construction of a simulation model within a PSA framework proved to be a very useful additional step to aid contextualisation of the results from a discrete time survival model, especially where the research is designed to guide on-farm management decisions at population (i.e. herd) rather than individual level.

How Unusual were Hurricane Harvey's Rains?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, K.

2017-12-01

We apply an advanced technique for hurricane risk assessment to evaluate the probability of hurricane rainfall of Harvey's magnitude. The technique embeds a detailed computational hurricane model in the large-scale conditions represented by climate reanalyses and by climate models. We simulate 3700 hurricane events affecting the state of Texas, from each of three climate reanalyses spanning the period 1980-2016, and 2000 events from each of six climate models for each of two periods: the period 1981-2000 from historical simulations, and the period 2081-2100 from future simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. On the basis of these simulations, we estimate that hurricane rain of Harvey's magnitude in the state of Texas would have had an annual probability of 0.01 in the late twentieth century, and will have an annual probability of 0.18 by the end of this century, with remarkably small scatter among the six climate models downscaled. If the event frequency is changing linearly over time, this would yield an annual probability of 0.06 in 2017.

Time series analysis of personal exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality using an exposure simulator.

PubMed

Chang, Howard H; Fuentes, Montserrat; Frey, H Christopher

2012-09-01

This paper describes a modeling framework for estimating the acute effects of personal exposure to ambient air pollution in a time series design. First, a spatial hierarchical model is used to relate Census tract-level daily ambient concentrations and simulated exposures for a subset of the study period. The complete exposure time series is then imputed for risk estimation. Modeling exposure via a statistical model reduces the computational burden associated with simulating personal exposures considerably. This allows us to consider personal exposures at a finer spatial resolution to improve exposure assessment and for a longer study period. The proposed approach is applied to an analysis of fine particulate matter of <2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(2.5)) and daily mortality in the New York City metropolitan area during the period 2001-2005. Personal PM(2.5) exposures were simulated from the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation. Accounting for exposure uncertainty, the authors estimated a 2.32% (95% posterior interval: 0.68, 3.94) increase in mortality per a 10 μg/m(3) increase in personal exposure to PM(2.5) from outdoor sources on the previous day. The corresponding estimates per a 10 μg/m(3) increase in PM(2.5) ambient concentration was 1.13% (95% confidence interval: 0.27, 2.00). The risks of mortality associated with PM(2.5) were also higher during the summer months.

Thermal Simulations, Open Boundary Conditions and Switches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burnier, Yannis; Florio, Adrien; Kaczmarek, Olaf; Mazur, Lukas

2018-03-01

SU(N) gauge theories on compact spaces have a non-trivial vacuum structure characterized by a countable set of topological sectors and their topological charge. In lattice simulations, every topological sector needs to be explored a number of times which reflects its weight in the path integral. Current lattice simulations are impeded by the so-called freezing of the topological charge problem. As the continuum is approached, energy barriers between topological sectors become well defined and the simulations get trapped in a given sector. A possible way out was introduced by Lüscher and Schaefer using open boundary condition in the time extent. However, this solution cannot be used for thermal simulations, where the time direction is required to be periodic. In this proceedings, we present results obtained using open boundary conditions in space, at non-zero temperature. With these conditions, the topological charge is not quantized and the topological barriers are lifted. A downside of this method are the strong finite-size effects introduced by the boundary conditions. We also present some exploratory results which show how these conditions could be used on an algorithmic level to reshuffle the system and generate periodic configurations with non-zero topological charge.

A Malaria Transmission Model with Temperature-Dependent Incubation Period.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-05-01

Malaria is an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium parasites and is transmitted among humans by female Anopheles mosquitoes. Climate factors have significant impact on both mosquito life cycle and parasite development. To consider the temperature sensitivity of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of malaria parasites, we formulate a delay differential equations model with a periodic time delay. We derive the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text] and establish a threshold type result on the global dynamics in terms of [Formula: see text], that is, the unique disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text]; and the model system admits a unique positive periodic solution which is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text]. Numerically, we parameterize the model with data from Maputo Province, Mozambique, and simulate the long-term behavior of solutions. The simulation result is consistent with the obtained analytic result. In addition, we find that using the time-averaged EIP may underestimate the basic reproduction ratio.

Multi-year assessment of soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modeling uncertainties over a Mediterranean agricultural site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J.-C.; Lafont, S.; Martin, E.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Bertrand, N.; Desfonds, V.; Renard, D.

2012-04-01

Vegetation productivity and water balance of Mediterranean regions will be particularly affected by climate and land-use changes. In order to analyze and predict these changes through land surface models, a critical step is to quantify the uncertainties associated with these models (processes, parameters) and their implementation over a long period of time. Besides, uncertainties attached to the data used to force these models (atmospheric forcing, vegetation and soil characteristics, crop management practices...) which are generally available at coarse spatial resolution (>1-10 km) and for a limited number of plant functional types, need to be evaluated. This paper aims at assessing the uncertainties in water (evapotranspiration) and energy fluxes estimated from a Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) model over a Mediterranean agricultural site. While similar past studies focused on particular crop types and limited period of time, the originality of this paper consists in implementing the SVAT model and assessing its uncertainties over a long period of time (10 years), encompassing several cycles of distinct crops (wheat, sorghum, sunflower, peas). The impacts on the SVAT simulations of the following sources of uncertainties are characterized: - Uncertainties in atmospheric forcing are assessed comparing simulations forced with local meteorological measurements and simulations forced with re-analysis atmospheric dataset (SAFRAN database). - Uncertainties in key surface characteristics (soil, vegetation, crop management practises) are tested comparing simulations feeded with standard values from global database (e.g. ECOCLIMAP) and simulations based on in situ or site-calibrated values. - Uncertainties dues to the implementation of the SVAT model over a long period of time are analyzed with regards to crop rotation. The SVAT model being analyzed in this paper is ISBA in its a-gs version which simulates the photosynthesis and its coupling with the stomata conductance, as well as the time course of the plant biomass and the Leaf Area Index (LAI). The experiment was conducted at the INRA-Avignon (France) crop site (ICOS associated site), for which 10 years of energy and water eddy fluxes, soil moisture profiles, vegetation measurements, agricultural practises are available for distinct crop types. The uncertainties in evapotranspiration and energy flux estimates are quantified from both 10-year trend analysis and selected daily cycles spanning a range of atmospheric conditions and phenological stages. While the net radiation flux is correctly simulated, the cumulated latent heat flux is under-estimated. Daily plots indicate i) an overestimation of evapotranspiration over bare soil probably due to an overestimation of the soil water reservoir available for evaporation and ii) an under-estimation of transpiration for developed canopy. Uncertainties attached to the re-analysis atmospheric data show little influence on the cumulated values of evapotranspiration. Better performances are reached using in situ soil depths and site-calibrated photosynthesis parameters compared to the simulations based on the ECOCLIMAP standard values. Finally, this paper highlights the impact of the temporal succession of vegetation cover and bare soil on the simulation of soil moisture and evapotranspiration over a long period of time. Thus, solutions to account for crop rotation in the implementation of SVAT models are discussed.

Cycle-averaged dynamics of a periodically driven, closed-loop circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heldt, T.; Chang, J. L.; Chen, J. J. S.; Verghese, G. C.; Mark, R. G.

2005-01-01

Time-varying elastance models have been used extensively in the past to simulate the pulsatile nature of cardiovascular waveforms. Frequently, however, one is interested in dynamics that occur over longer time scales, in which case a detailed simulation of each cardiac contraction becomes computationally burdensome. In this paper, we apply circuit-averaging techniques to a periodically driven, closed-loop, three-compartment recirculation model. The resultant cycle-averaged model is linear and time invariant, and greatly reduces the computational burden. It is also amenable to systematic order reduction methods that lead to further efficiencies. Despite its simplicity, the averaged model captures the dynamics relevant to the representation of a range of cardiovascular reflex mechanisms. c2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation of turbulent shear flows at Stanford and NASA-Ames - What can we do and what have we learned?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reynolds, W. C.

1983-01-01

The capabilities and limitations of large eddy simulation (LES) and full turbulence simulation (FTS) are outlined. It is pointed out that LES, although limited at the present time by the need for periodic boundary conditions, produces large-scale flow behavior in general agreement with experiments. What is more, FTS computations produce small-scale behavior that is consistent with available experiments. The importance of the development work being done on the National Aerodynamic Simulator is emphasized. Studies at present are limited to situations in which periodic boundary conditions can be applied on boundaries of the computational domain where the flow is turbulent.

A Regional Model Study of Synoptic Features Over West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Saloum, Mahaman; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWR initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation "forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days. Results imply that information via the lateral boundary conditions is not always sufficient to minimize departures between simulated and actual precipitation patterns for more than several days. In addition, there was some evidence that the new initialization may increase the simulations' sensitivity to the quality of lateral boundary conditions.

Effects of Time-Dependent Inflow Perturbations on Turbulent Flow in a Street Canyon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, G.; Ngan, K.

2017-12-01

Urban flow and turbulence are driven by atmospheric flows with larger horizontal scales. Since building-resolving computational fluid dynamics models typically employ steady Dirichlet boundary conditions or forcing, the accuracy of numerical simulations may be limited by the neglect of perturbations. We investigate the sensitivity of flow within a unit-aspect-ratio street canyon to time-dependent perturbations near the inflow boundary. Using large-eddy simulation, time-periodic perturbations to the streamwise velocity component are incorporated via the nudging technique. Spatial averages of pointwise differences between unperturbed and perturbed velocity fields (i.e., the error kinetic energy) show a clear dependence on the perturbation period, though spatial structures are largely insensitive to the time-dependent forcing. The response of the error kinetic energy is maximized for perturbation periods comparable to the time scale of the mean canyon circulation. Frequency spectra indicate that this behaviour arises from a resonance between the inflow forcing and the mean motion around closed streamlines. The robustness of the results is confirmed using perturbations derived from measurements of roof-level wind speed.

RENEW v3.2 user's manual, maintenance estimation simulation for Space Station Freedom Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bream, Bruce L.

1993-01-01

RENEW is a maintenance event estimation simulation program developed in support of the Space Station Freedom Program (SSFP). This simulation uses reliability and maintainability (R&M) and logistics data to estimate both average and time dependent maintenance demands. The simulation uses Monte Carlo techniques to generate failure and repair times as a function of the R&M and logistics parameters. The estimates are generated for a single type of orbital replacement unit (ORU). The simulation has been in use by the SSFP Work Package 4 prime contractor, Rocketdyne, since January 1991. The RENEW simulation gives closer estimates of performance since it uses a time dependent approach and depicts more factors affecting ORU failure and repair than steady state average calculations. RENEW gives both average and time dependent demand values. Graphs of failures over the mission period and yearly failure occurrences are generated. The averages demand rate for the ORU over the mission period is also calculated. While RENEW displays the results in graphs, the results are also available in a data file for further use by spreadsheets or other programs. The process of using RENEW starts with keyboard entry of the R&M and operational data. Once entered, the data may be saved in a data file for later retrieval. The parameters may be viewed and changed after entry using RENEW. The simulation program runs the number of Monte Carlo simulations requested by the operator. Plots and tables of the results can be viewed on the screen or sent to a printer. The results of the simulation are saved along with the input data. Help screens are provided with each menu and data entry screen.

A passive heat maintenance strategy implemented during a simulated half-time improves lower body power output and repeated sprint ability in professional Rugby Union players.

PubMed

Russell, Mark; West, Daniel J; Briggs, Marc A; Bracken, Richard M; Cook, Christian J; Giroud, Thibault; Gill, Nicholas; Kilduff, Liam P

2015-01-01

Reduced physical performance has been observed following the half-time period in team sports players, likely due to a decrease in muscle temperature during this period. We examined the effects of a passive heat maintenance strategy employed between successive exercise bouts on core temperature (Tcore) and subsequent exercise performance. Eighteen professional Rugby Union players completed this randomised and counter-balanced study. After a standardised warm-up (WU) and 15 min of rest, players completed a repeated sprint test (RSSA 1) and countermovement jumps (CMJ). Thereafter, in normal training attire (Control) or a survival jacket (Passive), players rested for a further 15 min (simulating a typical half-time) before performing a second RSSA (RSSA 2) and CMJ's. Measurements of Tcore were taken at baseline, post-WU, pre-RSSA 1, post-RSSA 1 and pre-RSSA 2. Peak power output (PPO) and repeated sprint ability was assessed before and after the simulated half-time. Similar Tcore responses were observed between conditions at baseline (Control: 37.06±0.05°C; Passive: 37.03±0.05°C) and for all other Tcore measurements taken before half-time. After the simulated half-time, the decline in Tcore was lower (-0.74±0.08% vs. -1.54±0.06%, p<0.001) and PPO was higher (5610±105 W vs. 5440±105 W, p<0.001) in the Passive versus Control condition. The decline in PPO over half-time was related to the decline in Tcore (r = 0.632, p = 0.005). In RSSA 2, best, mean and total sprint times were 1.39±0.17% (p<0.001), 0.55±0.06% (p<0.001) and 0.55±0.06% (p<0.001) faster for Passive versus Control. Passive heat maintenance reduced declines in Tcore that were observed during a simulated half-time period and improved subsequent PPO and repeated sprint ability in professional Rugby Union players.

Simulated ground-water flow in the Hueco Bolson, an alluvial-basin aquifer system near El Paso, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heywood, Charles E.; Yager, Richard M.

2003-01-01

The neighboring cities of El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico, have historically relied on ground-water withdrawals from the Hueco Bolson, an alluvial-aquifer system, to supply water to their growing populations. By 1996, ground-water drawdown exceeded 60 meters in some areas under Ciudad Juarez and El Paso. A simulation of steady-state and transient ground-water flow in the Hueco Bolson in westernmost Texas, south-central New Mexico, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico, was developed using MODFLOW-96. The model is needed by El Paso Water Utilities to evaluate strategies for obtaining the most beneficial use of the Hueco Bolson aquifer system. The transient simulation represents a period of 100 years beginning in 1903 and ending in 2002. The period 1903 through 1968 was represented with 66 annual stress periods, and the period 1969 through 2002 was represented with 408 monthly stress periods. The ground-water flow model was calibrated using MODFLOWP and UCODE. Parameter values representing aquifer properties and boundary conditions were adjusted through nonlinear regression in a transient-state simulation with 96 annual time steps to produce a model that approximated (1) 4,352 water levels measured in 292 wells from 1912 to 1995, (2) three seepage-loss rates from a reach of the Rio Grande during periods from 1979 to 1981, (3) three seepage-loss rates from a reach of the Franklin Canal during periods from 1990 to 1992, and (4) 24 seepage rates into irrigation drains from 1961 to 1983. Once a calibrated model was obtained with MODFLOWP and UCODE, the optimal parameter set was used to create an equivalent MODFLOW-96 simulation with monthly temporal discretization to improve computations of seepage from the Rio Grande and to define the flow field for a chloride-transport simulation. Model boundary conditions were modified at appropriate times during the simulation to represent changes in well pumpage, drainage of agricultural fields, and channel modifications of the Rio Grande. The model input was generated from geographic information system databases, which facilitated rapid model construction and enabled testing of several conceptualizations of hydrogeologic facies boundaries. Specific yield of unconfined layers and hydraulic conductance of Quaternary faults in the fluvial facies were the most sensitive model parameters, suggesting that ground-water flow is impeded across the fault planes.

Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR

PubMed Central

Morin, Cory W.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Hayden, Mary H.; Barrera, Roberto; Ernst, Kacey

2015-01-01

Meteorological factors influence dengue virus ecology by modulating vector mosquito population dynamics, viral replication, and transmission. Dynamic modeling techniques can be used to examine how interactions among meteorological variables, vectors and the dengue virus influence transmission. We developed a dengue fever simulation model by coupling a dynamic simulation model for Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector for dengue, with a basic epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we simulated dengue transmission during the period of 2010–2013 in San Juan, PR, where dengue fever is endemic. The results of 9600 simulations using varied model parameters were evaluated by statistical comparison (r2) with surveillance data of dengue cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To identify the most influential parameters associated with dengue virus transmission for each period the top 1% of best-fit model simulations were retained and compared. Using the top simulations, dengue cases were simulated well for 2010 (r2 = 0.90, p = 0.03), 2011 (r2 = 0.83, p = 0.05), and 2012 (r2 = 0.94, p = 0.01); however, simulations were weaker for 2013 (r2 = 0.25, p = 0.25) and the entire four-year period (r2 = 0.44, p = 0.002). Analysis of parameter values from retained simulations revealed that rain dependent container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the wetter 2010 and 2011 years, while human managed (i.e. manually filled) container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the drier 2012 and 2013 years. The simulations further indicate that rainfall strongly modulates the timing of dengue (e.g., epidemics occurred earlier during rainy years) while temperature modulates the annual number of dengue fever cases. Our results suggest that meteorological factors have a time-variable influence on dengue transmission relative to other important environmental and human factors. PMID:26275146

Prediction of the period of psychotic episode in individual schizophrenics by simulation-data construction approach.

PubMed

Huang, Chun-Jung; Wang, Hsiao-Fan; Chiu, Hsien-Jane; Lan, Tsuo-Hung; Hu, Tsung-Ming; Loh, El-Wui

2010-10-01

Although schizophrenia can be treated, most patients still experience inevitable psychotic episodes from time to time. Precautious actions can be taken if the next onset can be predicted. However, sufficient information is always lacking in the clinical scenario. A possible solution is to use the virtual data generated from limited of original data. Data construction method (DCM) has been shown to generate the virtual felt earthquake data effectively and used in the prediction of further events. Here we investigated the performance of DCM in deriving the membership functions and discrete-event simulations (DES) in predicting the period embracing the initiation and termination time-points of the next psychotic episode of 35 individual schizophrenic patients. The results showed that 21 subjects had a success of simulations (RSS) ≥70%. Further analysis demonstrated that the co-morbidity of coronary heart diseases (CHD), risks of CHD, and the frequency of previous psychotic episodes increased the RSS.

Design of the biosonar simulator for dolphin's clicks waveform reproduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishii, Ken; Akamatsu, Tomonari; Hatakeyama, Yoshimi

1992-03-01

The emitted clicks of Dall's porpoises consist of a pulse train of burst signals with an ultrasonic carrier frequency. The authors have designed a biosonar simulator to reproduce the waveforms associated with a dolphin's clicks underwater. The total reproduction system consists of a click signal acquisition block, a waveform analysis block, a memory unit, a click simulator, and a underwater, ultrasonic wave transmitter. In operation, data stored in an EPROM (Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory) are read out sequentially by a fast clock and converted to analog output signals. Then an ultrasonic power amplifier reproduces these signals through a transmitter. The click signal replaying block is referred to as the BSS (Biosonar Simulator). This is what simulates the clicks. The details of the BSS are described in this report. A unit waveform is defined. The waveform is divided into a burst period and a waiting period. Clicks are a sequence based on a unit waveform, and digital data are sequentially read out from an EPROM of waveform data. The basic parameters of the BSS are as follows: (1) reading clock, 100 ns to 25.4 microseconds; (2) number of reading clock, 34 to 1024 times; (3) counter clock in a waiting period, 100 ns to 25.4 microseconds; (4) number of counter clock, zero to 16,777,215 times; (5) number of burst/waiting repetition cycle, one to 128 times; and (6) transmission level adjustment by a programmable attenuator, zero to 86.5 dB. These basic functions enable the BSS to replay clicks of Dall's porpoise precisely.

Efficient Fourier-based algorithms for time-periodic unsteady problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopinath, Arathi Kamath

2007-12-01

This dissertation work proposes two algorithms for the simulation of time-periodic unsteady problems via the solution of Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations. These algorithms use a Fourier representation in time and hence solve for the periodic state directly without resolving transients (which consume most of the resources in a time-accurate scheme). In contrast to conventional Fourier-based techniques which solve the governing equations in frequency space, the new algorithms perform all the calculations in the time domain, and hence require minimal modifications to an existing solver. The complete space-time solution is obtained by iterating in a fifth pseudo-time dimension. Various time-periodic problems such as helicopter rotors, wind turbines, turbomachinery and flapping-wings can be simulated using the Time Spectral method. The algorithm is first validated using pitching airfoil/wing test cases. The method is further extended to turbomachinery problems, and computational results verified by comparison with a time-accurate calculation. The technique can be very memory intensive for large problems, since the solution is computed (and hence stored) simultaneously at all time levels. Often, the blade counts of a turbomachine are rescaled such that a periodic fraction of the annulus can be solved. This approximation enables the solution to be obtained at a fraction of the cost of a full-scale time-accurate solution. For a viscous computation over a three-dimensional single-stage rescaled compressor, an order of magnitude savings is achieved. The second algorithm, the reduced-order Harmonic Balance method is applicable only to turbomachinery flows, and offers even larger computational savings than the Time Spectral method. It simulates the true geometry of the turbomachine using only one blade passage per blade row as the computational domain. In each blade row of the turbomachine, only the dominant frequencies are resolved, namely, combinations of neighbor's blade passing. An appropriate set of frequencies can be chosen by the analyst/designer based on a trade-off between accuracy and computational resources available. A cost comparison with a time-accurate computation for an Euler calculation on a two-dimensional multi-stage compressor obtained an order of magnitude savings, and a RANS calculation on a three-dimensional single-stage compressor achieved two orders of magnitude savings, with comparable accuracy.

Light-Cone Effect of Radiation Fields in Cosmological Radiative Transfer Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Kyungjin

2015-02-01

We present a novel method to implement time-delayed propagation of radiation fields in cosmo-logical radiative transfer simulations. Time-delayed propagation of radiation fields requires construction of retarded-time fields by tracking the location and lifetime of radiation sources along the corresponding light-cones. Cosmological radiative transfer simulations have, until now, ignored this "light-cone effect" or implemented ray-tracing methods that are computationally demanding. We show that radiative trans-fer calculation of the time-delayed fields can be easily achieved in numerical simulations when periodic boundary conditions are used, by calculating the time-discretized retarded-time Green's function using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) method and convolving it with the source distribution. We also present a direct application of this method to the long-range radiation field of Lyman-Werner band photons, which is important in the high-redshift astrophysics with first stars.

Introduction of a new laboratory test: an econometric approach with the use of neural network analysis.

PubMed

Jabor, A; Vlk, T; Boril, P

1996-04-15

We designed a simulation model for the assessment of the financial risks involved when a new diagnostic test is introduced in the laboratory. The model is based on a neural network consisting of ten neurons and assumes that input entities can have assigned appropriate uncertainty. Simulations are done on a 1-day interval basis. Risk analysis completes the model and the financial effects are evaluated for a selected time period. The basic output of the simulation consists of total expenses and income during the simulation time, net present value of the project at the end of simulation, total number of control samples during simulation, total number of patients evaluated and total number of used kits.

PROFESSIONAL NEGOTIATION IN EDUCATION--A BARGAINING GAME WITH SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS. INSTRUCTOR'S MANUAL. FIRST REVISED EDITION.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

HORVAT, JOHN J.

IN AN APPLICATION OF GAME THEORY TO PREPARE PARTICIPATING PERSONNEL FOR EFFECTIVE PROFESSIONAL NEGOTIATION IN EDUCATION, THREE FORMS OF COLLECTIVE BARGAINING ARE SIMULATED--ONE FOR A FOUR- TO EIGHT-HOUR TIME PERIOD, A SECOND FOR A TWO- TO FOUR-DAY TIME PERIOD, AND A THIRD FOR A ONE- TO THREE-WEEK WORKSHOP OR SEMINAR. LONGER FORMS PRESENT MORE…

Comparison of the migration of melamine from melamine-formaldehyde plastics ('melaware') into various food simulants and foods themselves.

PubMed

Bradley, E L; Castle, L; Day, J S; Ebner, I; Ehlert, K; Helling, R; Koster, S; Leak, J; Pfaff, K

2010-12-01

A variety of melaware articles were tested for the migration of melamine into the food simulant 3% w/v acetic acid as a benchmark, and into other food simulants, beverages and foods for comparison. The results indicate that the acidity of the food simulant plays a role in promoting migration, but not by as much as might have been anticipated, since 3% acetic acid gave migration values about double those obtained using water under the same time and temperature test conditions. In contrast, migration into the fatty food simulant olive oil was not detectable and at least 20-fold lower than with the aqueous food simulants. This was expected given the solubility properties of melamine and the characteristics of the melaware plastic. Migration levels into hot acidic beverages (apple juice, tomato juice, red-fruit tea and black coffee) were rather similar to the acetic acid simulant when the same time and temperature test conditions are used, e.g. 2 h at 70°C. However, migration levels into foods that were placed hot into melaware articles and then allowed to cool on standing were much lower (6-14 times lower) than if pre-heated food was placed into the articles and then maintained (artificially) at that high temperature in the same way that a controlled time-temperature test using simulants would be conducted. This very strong influence of time and especially temperature was manifest in the effects seen of microwave heating of food or beverage in the melaware articles. Here, despite the short duration of hot contact, migration levels were similar to simulants used for longer periods, e.g. 70°C for 2 h. This is rationalized in terms of the peak temperature achieved on microwave heating, which may exceed 70°C, counterbalancing the shorter time period held hot. There was also evidence that when using melaware utensils in boiling liquids, as for stovetop use of spatulas, the boiling action of circulating food/simulant can have an additional effect in promoting surface erosion, increasing the plastic decomposition and so elevating the melamine release.

Capturing flood-to-drought transitions in regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anders, Ivonne; Haslinger, Klaus; Hofstätter, Michael; Salzmann, Manuela; Resch, Gernot

2017-04-01

In previous studies atmospheric cyclones have been investigated in terms of related precipitation extremes in Central Europe. Mediterranean (Vb-like) cyclones are of special relevance as they are frequently related to high atmospheric moisture fluxes leading to floods and landslides in the Alpine region. Another focus in this area is on droughts, affecting soil moisture and surface and sub-surface runoff as well. Such events develop differently depending on available pre-saturation of water in the soil. In a first step we investigated two time periods which encompass a flood event and a subsequent drought on very different time scales, one long lasting transition (2002/2003) and a rather short one between May and August 2013. In a second step we extended the investigation to the long time period 1950-2016. We focused on high spatial and temporal scales and assessed the currently achievable accuracy in the simulation of the Vb-events on one hand and following drought events on the other hand. The state-of-the-art regional climate model CCLM is applied in hindcast-mode simulating the single events described above, but also the time from 1948 to 2016 to evaluate the results from the short runs to be valid for the long time period. Besides the conventional forcing of the regional climate model at its lateral boundaries, a spectral nudging technique is applied. The simulations covering the European domain have been varied systematically different model parameters. The resulting precipitation amounts have been compared to E-OBS gridded European precipitation data set and a recent high spatially resolved precipitation data set for Austria (GPARD-6). For the drought events the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), soil moisture and runoff has been investigated. Varying the spectral nudging setup helps us to understand the 3D-processes during these events, but also to identify model deficiencies. To improve the simulation of such events in the past, improves also the ability to assess a climate change signal in the recent and far future.

Effect of training frequency on the learning curve on the da Vinci Skills Simulator.

PubMed

Walliczek, Ute; Förtsch, Arne; Dworschak, Philipp; Teymoortash, Afshin; Mandapathil, Magis; Werner, Jochen; Güldner, Christian

2016-04-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of training on the performance outcome with the da Vinci Skills Simulator. Forty novices were enrolled in a prospective training curriculum. Participants were separated into 2 groups. Group 1 performed 4 training sessions and group 2 had 2 training sessions over a 4-week period. Five exercises were performed 3 times consecutively. On the last training day, a new exercise was added. A significant skills gain from the first to the final practice day in overall performance, time to complete, and economy of motion was seen for both groups. Group 1 had a significantly better outcome in overall performance, time to complete, and economy of motion in all exercises. There was no significant difference found regarding the new exercise in group 1 versus group 2 in nearly all parameters. Longer time distances between training sessions are assumed to play a secondary role, whereas total repetition frequency is crucial for improvement of technical performance. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 38: E1762-E1769, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Simulator for Microlens Planet Surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ipatov, Sergei I.; Horne, Keith; Alsubai, Khalid A.; Bramich, Daniel M.; Dominik, Martin; Hundertmark, Markus P. G.; Liebig, Christine; Snodgrass, Colin D. B.; Street, Rachel A.; Tsapras, Yiannis

2014-04-01

We summarize the status of a computer simulator for microlens planet surveys. The simulator generates synthetic light curves of microlensing events observed with specified networks of telescopes over specified periods of time. Particular attention is paid to models for sky brightness and seeing, calibrated by fitting to data from the OGLE survey and RoboNet observations in 2011. Time intervals during which events are observable are identified by accounting for positions of the Sun and the Moon, and other restrictions on telescope pointing. Simulated observations are then generated for an algorithm that adjusts target priorities in real time with the aim of maximizing planet detection zone area summed over all the available events. The exoplanet detection capability of observations was compared for several telescopes.

Conserving the linear momentum in stochastic dynamics: Dissipative particle dynamics as a general strategy to achieve local thermostatization in molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Passler, Peter P; Hofer, Thomas S

2017-02-15

Stochastic dynamics is a widely employed strategy to achieve local thermostatization in molecular dynamics simulation studies; however, it suffers from an inherent violation of momentum conservation. Although this short-coming has little impact on structural and short-time dynamic properties, it can be shown that dynamics in the long-time limit such as diffusion is strongly dependent on the respective thermostat setting. Application of the methodically similar dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) provides a simple, effective strategy to ensure the advantages of local, stochastic thermostatization while at the same time the linear momentum of the system remains conserved. In this work, the key parameters to employ the DPD thermostats in the framework of periodic boundary conditions are investigated, in particular the dependence of the system properties on the size of the DPD-region as well as the treatment of forces near the cutoff. Structural and dynamical data for light and heavy water as well as a Lennard-Jones fluid have been compared to simulations executed via stochastic dynamics as well as via use of the widely employed Nose-Hoover chain and Berendsen thermostats. It is demonstrated that a small size of the DPD region is sufficient to achieve local thermalization, while at the same time artifacts in the self-diffusion characteristic for stochastic dynamics are eliminated. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Single-photon technique for the detection of periodic extraterrestrial laser pulses.

PubMed

Leeb, W R; Poppe, A; Hammel, E; Alves, J; Brunner, M; Meingast, S

2013-06-01

To draw humankind's attention to its existence, an extraterrestrial civilization could well direct periodic laser pulses toward Earth. We developed a technique capable of detecting a quasi-periodic light signal with an average of less than one photon per pulse within a measurement time of a few tens of milliseconds in the presence of the radiation emitted by an exoplanet's host star. Each of the electronic events produced by one or more single-photon avalanche detectors is tagged with precise time-of-arrival information and stored. From this we compute a histogram displaying the frequency of event-time differences in classes with bin widths on the order of a nanosecond. The existence of periodic laser pulses manifests itself in histogram peaks regularly spaced at multiples of the-a priori unknown-pulse repetition frequency. With laser sources simulating both the pulse source and the background radiation, we tested a detection system in the laboratory at a wavelength of 850 nm. We present histograms obtained from various recorded data sequences with the number of photons per pulse, the background photons per pulse period, and the recording time as main parameters. We then simulated a periodic signal hypothetically generated on a planet orbiting a G2V-type star (distance to Earth 500 light-years) and show that the technique is capable of detecting the signal even if the received pulses carry as little as one photon on average on top of the star's background light.

Electronic Circuit Experiments and SPICE Simulation of Double Covering Bifurcation of 2-Torus Quasi-Periodic Flow in Phase-Locked Loop Circuit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamiyama, Kyohei; Endo, Tetsuro; Imai, Isao; Komuro, Motomasa

2016-06-01

Double covering (DC) bifurcation of a 2-torus quasi-periodic flow in a phase-locked loop circuit was experimentally investigated using an electronic circuit and via SPICE simulation; in the circuit, the input radio-frequency signal was frequency modulated by the sum of two asynchronous sinusoidal baseband signals. We observed both DC and period-doubling bifurcations of a discrete map on two Poincaré sections, which were realized by changing the sample timing from one baseband sinusoidal signal to the other. The results confirm the DC bifurcation of the original flow.

Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Sturtevant, Luke P.

2018-01-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the Department of Health and Human Services, has developed a hydrologic model to assess the effects of short- and long-term climate change on hydrology in New Hampshire. This report documents the model and datasets developed by using the model to predict how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle and provide data that can be used by State and local agencies to identify locations that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change in areas across New Hampshire. Future hydrologic projections were developed from the output of five general circulation models for two future climate scenarios. The scenarios are based on projected future greenhouse gas emissions and estimates of land-use and land-cover change within a projected global economic framework. An evaluation of the possible effect of projected future temperature on modeling of evapotranspiration is summarized to address concerns regarding the implications of the future climate on model parameters that are based on climate variables. The results of the model simulations are hydrologic projections indicating increasing streamflow across the State with large increases in streamflow during winter and early spring and general decreases during late spring and summer. Wide spatial variability in changes to groundwater recharge is projected, with general decreases in the Connecticut River Valley and at high elevations in the northern part of the State and general increases in coastal and lowland areas of the State. In general, total winter snowfall is projected to decrease across the State, but there is a possibility of increasing snow in some locations, particularly during November, February, and March. The simulated future changes in recharge and snowfall vary by watershed across the State. This means that each area of the State could experience very different changes, depending on topography or other factors. Therefore, planning for infrastructure and public safety needs to be flexible in order to address the range of possible outcomes indicated by the various model simulations. The absolute magnitude and timing of the daily streamflows, especially the larger floods, are not considered to be reliably simulated compared to changes in frequency and duration of daily streamflows and changes in accumulated monthly and seasonal streamflow volumes. Simulated current and future streamflow, groundwater recharge, and snowfall datasets include simulated data derived from the five general circulation models used in this study for a current reference time period and two future time periods. Average monthly streamflow time series datasets are provided for 27 streamgages in New Hampshire. Fourteen of the 27 streamgages associated with daily streamflow time series showed a good calibration. Average monthly groundwater recharge and snowfall time series for the same reference time period and two future time periods are also provided for each of the 467 hydrologic response units that compose the model.

The effects of background noise on cognitive performance during a 70 hour simulation of conditions aboard the International Space Station.

PubMed

Smith, D G; Baranski, J V; Thompson, M M; Abel, S M

2003-01-01

A total of twenty-five subjects were cloistered for a period of 70 hours, five at a time, in a hyperbaric chamber modified to simulate the conditions aboard the International Space Station (ISS). A recording of 72 dBA background noise from the ISS service module was used to simulate noise conditions on the ISS. Two groups experienced the background noise throughout the experiment, two other groups experienced the noise only during the day, and one control group was cloistered in a quiet environment. All subjects completed a battery of cognitive tests nine times throughout the experiment. The data showed little or no effect of noise on reasoning, perceptual decision-making, memory, vigilance, mood, or subjective indices of fatigue. Our results suggest that the level of noise on the space station should not affect cognitive performance, at least over a period of several days.

[Characteristics of the signal lag effect on crew--control center communications in the 520-day simulation experiment].

PubMed

Shved, D M; Gushchin, V I; Ehmann, B; Balazs, L

2013-01-01

The 520-day experimental simulation of an exploration mission provided an opportunity to apply content analysis for studying the patterns of crew--Control center (CC) communication impeded by lag times. The period of high autonomy was featured by drastic reduction of the number of crew questions and requests which was judged as a marker of adaptation to the simulated space mission environment. The "key" events in the experiment changed the content of crew messages radically attesting to misperception of time, emotional involvement, want of CC feedback and draining out negative emotions. After the period of high autonomy with full loss of communication with controllers the traffic of crew messages onto the outside was noted to become very light which could also point to temporal changes in the communication style developed in the conditions of isolation and autonomous existence.

Validation of Broadband Ground Motion Simulations for Japanese Crustal Earthquakes by the Recipe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwaki, A.; Maeda, T.; Morikawa, N.; Miyake, H.; Fujiwara, H.

2015-12-01

The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) of Japan has organized the broadband ground motion simulation method into a standard procedure called the "recipe" (HERP, 2009). In the recipe, the source rupture is represented by the characterized source model (Irikura and Miyake, 2011). The broadband ground motion time histories are computed by a hybrid approach: the 3-D finite-difference method (Aoi et al. 2004) and the stochastic Green's function method (Dan and Sato, 1998; Dan et al. 2000) for the long- (> 1　s) and short-period (< 1 s) components, respectively, using the 3-D velocity structure model. As the engineering significance of scenario earthquake ground motion prediction is increasing, thorough verification and validation are required for the simulation methods. This study presents the self-validation of the recipe for two MW6.6 crustal events in Japan, the 2000 Tottori and 2004 Chuetsu (Niigata) earthquakes. We first compare the simulated velocity time series with the observation. Main features of the velocity waveforms, such as the near-fault pulses and the large later phases on deep sediment sites are well reproduced by the simulations. Then we evaluate 5% damped pseudo acceleration spectra (PSA) in the framework of the SCEC Broadband Platform (BBP) validation (Dreger et al. 2015). The validation results are generally acceptable in the period range 0.1 - 10 s, whereas those in the shortest period range (0.01-0.1 s) are less satisfactory. We also evaluate the simulations with the 1-D velocity structure models used in the SCEC BBP validation exercise. Although the goodness-of-fit parameters for PSA do not significantly differ from those for the 3-D velocity structure model, noticeable differences in velocity waveforms are observed. Our results suggest the importance of 1) well-constrained 3-D velocity structure model for broadband ground motion simulations and 2) evaluation of time series of ground motion as well as response spectra.

Insights into the paleoclimate of the PETM from an ensemble of EMIC simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keery, John; Holden, Philip; Edwards, Neil; Monteiro, Fanny; Ridgwell, Andy

2016-04-01

The Eocene epoch, and in particular, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) of 55.8 Ma, exhibit several features of particular interest for probing our understanding of the Earth system and carbon cycle. CO2 levels have not yet been definitively established, but were known to have varied considerably, peaking at up to several times modern values. Temperatures were several degrees higher than in the modern era, and there were periods of relatively rapid warming, with substantial variability in carbon cycle processes. The Eocene is therefore highly relevant for our understanding of the climate of the 21st Century. Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), with less detailed simulation of the dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans than general circulation models (GCMs), are sufficiently fast to allow climate modelling over long periods of geological time in comparatively short periods of computer run-time. This speed advantage of EMICs over GCMs permits an "ensemble" of model simulations to be run, allowing statistical analysis of results to be carried out, and allowing the uncertainties in model predictions to be estimated. Here we apply the EMICs PLASIM-GENIE, and GENIE-1, with an Eocene paleogeography which incorporates the major continental configurations and ocean connections, including a shallow strait linking the Arctic to the Tethys, but with neither the Tasman Gateway nor the Drake Passage yet open. Our two model strategy benefits from the detailed simulation of ocean biogeochemistry in GENIE-1, and the 3D spectral atmospheric dynamics in PLASIM-GENIE, which also provides boundary conditions for the GENIE-1 simulations. Using a 50-member ensemble of 1000-year quasi-equilibrium simulations with PLASIM-GENIE, we investigate the relative contributions of orbital and CO2 variability on climate and equator-pole temperature gradients. Results from PLASIM-GENIE are used to configure a harmonised ensemble of GENIE-1 simulations, which will be compared with newly obtained geochemical data on ocean oxygenation through the Eocene from the UK NERC RESPIRE project.

Ion dynamics at supercritical quasi-parallel shocks: Hybrid simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Su Yanqing; Lu Quanming; Gao Xinliang

2012-09-15

By separating the incident ions into directly transmitted, downstream thermalized, and diffuse ions, we perform one-dimensional (1D) hybrid simulations to investigate ion dynamics at a supercritical quasi-parallel shock. In the simulations, the angle between the upstream magnetic field and shock nominal direction is {theta}{sub Bn}=30 Degree-Sign , and the Alfven Mach number is M{sub A}{approx}5.5. The shock exhibits a periodic reformation process. The ion reflection occurs at the beginning of the reformation cycle. Part of the reflected ions is trapped between the old and new shock fronts for an extended time period. These particles eventually form superthermal diffuse ions aftermore » they escape to the upstream of the new shock front at the end of the reformation cycle. The other reflected ions may return to the shock immediately or be trapped between the old and new shock fronts for a short time period. When the amplitude of the new shock front exceeds that of the old shock front and the reformation cycle is finished, these ions become thermalized ions in the downstream. No noticeable heating can be found in the directly transmitted ions. The relevance of our simulations to the satellite observations is also discussed in the paper.« less

Computer simulations of structural transitions in large ferrofluid aggregates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Mina; Tomanek, David

2003-03-01

We have developed a quaternion molecular dynamics formalism to study structural transitions in systems of ferrofluid particles in colloidal suspensions. Our approach takes advantage of the viscous damping provided by the surrounding liquid and enables us to study the time evolution of these systems over milli-second time periods as a function of the number of particles, initial geometry, and an externally applied magnetic field. Our computer simulations for aggregates containing tens to hundreds of ferrofluid particles suggest that these systems relax to the global optimum structure in a step-wise manner. During the relaxation process, the potential energy decreases by two mechanisms, which occur on different time scales. Short time periods associated with structural relaxations within a given morphology are followed by much slower processes that generally lead to a simpler morphology. We discuss possible applications of these externally driven structural transitions for targeted medication delivery.

Documentation of a restart option for the U.S. Geological Survey coupled Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow (GSFLOW) model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regan, R. Steve; Niswonger, Richard G.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Barlow, Paul M.

2015-10-02

The spin-up simulation should be run for a sufficient length of time necessary to establish antecedent conditions throughout a model domain. Each GSFLOW application can require different lengths of time to account for the hydrologic stresses to propagate through a coupled groundwater and surface-water system. Typically, groundwater hydrologic processes require many years to come into equilibrium with dynamic climate and other forcing (or stress) data, such as precipitation and well pumping, whereas runoff-dominated surface-water processes respond relatively quickly. Use of a spin-up simulation can substantially reduce execution-time requirements for applications where the time period of interest is small compared to the time for hydrologic memory; thus, use of the restart option can be an efficient strategy for forecast and calibration simulations that require multiple simulations starting from the same day.

A Comparison of Two Chemical Mechanisms Using Data from the Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, S. B.; Saylor, R. D.

2016-12-01

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Canopy Exchange Simulation System (ACCESS) is a 1-D column model of the physical and chemical processes occurring from the Earth's surface to the top of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). In this study, we couple ACCESS with environmental data from the Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) intensive field measurement campaign to simulate the chemical evolution of biogenic hydrocarbons above a forest canopy over two time periods: a four-day period from June 29-July 2, 2013 and a three-day period from June 21-23, 2013. We quantify the efficacy of the model by calculating R2 values between SOAS chemical measurements and simulation results of isoprene, methyl vinyl ketone (MVK), methacrolein (MACR), α-pinene, and limonene. Two kinetic mechanisms, one from Browne et al. (2014) (RACM2+) and another from Schwantes et al. (2015) (CIT), were implemented in ACCESS and used in independent simulations to determine which mechanism better represents the SOAS data through daytime and nighttime periods. The results demonstrate that RACM2+ and CIT perform at comparable levels for simulating the evolution of isoprene, MVK, and MACR, but both differ substantially from measurements of α-pinene and limonene. The mechanisms perform equally well during both daytime and nighttime periods and thus, substantiated by our results, there is no strong justification for implementing one mechanism over the other.

Simulating and Analyzing Long-Term Changes in Emissions, Air Quality, Aerosol Feedback Effects and Human Health

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation covers work performed by the authors to characterize changes in emissions over the 1990 – 2010 time period, quantify the effects of these emission changes on air quality and aerosol/radiation feedbacks using both observations and model simulations, and fin...

Evaluating simulations of daily discharge from large watersheds using autoregression and an index of flashiness

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Watershed models are calibrated to simulate stream discharge as accurately as possible. Modelers will often calculate model validation statistics on aggregate (often monthly) time periods, rather than the daily step at which models typically operate. This is because daily hydrologic data exhibit lar...

Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850-1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sato, Makiko; Hansen, James E.; Mccormick, M. Patrick; Pollack, James B.

1993-01-01

A global stratospheric aerosol database employed for climate simulations is described. For the period 1883-1990, aerosol optical depths are estimated from optical extinction data, whose quality increases with time over that period. For the period 1850-1882, aerosol optical depths are more crudely estimated from volcanological evidence for the volume of ejecta from major known volcanoes. The data set is available over Internet.

Combined Log Inventory and Process Simulation Models for the Planning and Control of Sawmill Operations

Treesearch

Guillermo A. Mendoza; Roger J. Meimban; Philip A. Araman; William G. Luppold

1991-01-01

A log inventory model and a real-time hardwood process simulation model were developed and combined into an integrated production planning and control system for hardwood sawmills. The log inventory model was designed to monitor and periodically update the status of the logs in the log yard. The process simulation model was designed to estimate various sawmill...

"More may mean less... " the role for simulation-based medical education in the cardiac catheterization laboratory.

PubMed

Westerdahl, Daniel E; Henry, Timothy D

2016-02-15

Implementation of simulation-based medical education (SBME) can improve cardiovascular fellows' angiography skills and knowledge SBME focused on performing coronary angiography shortened procedure times and decreased the use of cine-fluoroscopy The ACGME mandate and SCAI's Simulation Committee recommendations suggest SBME will play an expanding and integral role in the field of cardiovascular medicine. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Simulation at Dryden Flight Research Facility from 1957 to 1982

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, John P.; Schilling, Lawrence J.; Wagner, Charles A.

1989-01-01

The Dryden Flight Research Facility has been a leader in developing simulation as an integral part of flight test research. The history of that effort is reviewed, starting in 1957 and continuing to the present time. The contributions of the major program activities conducted at Dryden during this 25-year period to the development of a simulation philosophy and capability is explained.

Three-Dimensional Simulations of Electron Beams Focused by Periodic Permanent Magnets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kory, Carol L.

1999-01-01

A fully three-dimensional (3D) model of an electron beam focused by a periodic permanent magnet (PPM) stack has been developed. First, the simulation code MAFIA was used to model a PPM stack using the magnetostatic solver. The exact geometry of the magnetic focusing structure was modeled; thus, no approximations were made regarding the off-axis fields. The fields from the static solver were loaded into the 3D particle-in-cell (PIC) solver of MAFIA where fully 3D behavior of the beam was simulated in the magnetic focusing field. The PIC solver computes the time-integration of electromagnetic fields simultaneously with the time integration of the equations of motion of charged particles that move under the influence of those fields. Fields caused by those moving charges are also taken into account; thus, effects like space charge and magnetic forces between particles are fully simulated. The electron beam is simulated by a number of macro-particles. These macro-particles represent a given charge Q amounting to that of several million electrons in order to conserve computational time and memory. Particle motion is unrestricted, so particle trajectories can cross paths and move in three dimensions under the influence of 3D electric and magnetic fields. Correspondingly, there is no limit on the initial current density distribution of the electron beam, nor its density distribution at any time during the simulation. Simulation results including beam current density, percent ripple and percent transmission will be presented, and the effects current, magnetic focusing strength and thermal velocities have on beam behavior will be demonstrated using 3D movies showing the evolution of beam characteristics in time and space. Unlike typical beam optics models, this 3D model allows simulation of asymmetric designs such as non- circularly symmetric electrostatic or magnetic focusing as well as the inclusion of input/output couplers.

Hydrologic modeling of two glaciated watersheds in Northeast Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Srinivasan, M.S.; Hamlett, J.M.; Day, R.L.; Sams, J.I.; Petersen, G.W.

1998-01-01

A hydrologic modeling study, using the Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF), was conducted in two glaciated watersheds, Purdy Creek and Ariel Creek in northeastern Pennsylvania. Both watersheds have wetlands and poorly drained soils due to low hydraulic conductivity and presence of fragipans. The HSPF model was calibrated in the Purdy Creek watershed and verified in the Ariel Creek watershed for June 1992 to December 1993 period. In Purdy Creek, the total volume of observed streamflow during the entire simulation period was 13.36 x 106 m3 and the simulated streamflow volume was 13.82 x 106 m3 (5 percent difference). For the verification simulation in Ariel Creek, the difference between the total observed and simulated flow volumes was 17 percent. Simulated peak flow discharges were within two hours of the observed for 30 of 46 peak flow events (discharge greater than 0.1 m3/sec) in Purdy Creek and 27 of 53 events in Ariel Creek. For 22 of the 46 events in Purdy Creek and 24 of 53 in Ariel Creek, the differences between the observed and simulated peak discharge rates were less than 30 percent. These 22 events accounted for 63 percent of total volume of streamflow observed during the selected 46 peak flow events in Purdy Creek. In Ariel Creek, these 24 peak flow events accounted for 62 percent of the total flow observed during all peak flow events. Differences in observed and simulated peak flow rates and volumes (on a percent basis) were greater during the snowmelt runoff events and summer periods than for other times.A hydrologic modeling study, using the Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF), was conducted in two glaciated watersheds, Purdy Creek and Ariel Creek in northeastern Pennsylvania. Both watersheds have wetlands and poorly drained soils due to low hydraulic conductivity and presence of fragipans. The HSPF model was calibrated in the Purdy Creek watershed and verified in the Ariel Creek watershed for June 1992 to December 1993 period. In Purdy Creek, the total volume of observed streamflow during the entire simulation period was 13.36??106 m3 and the simulated streamflow volume was 13.82??106 m3 (5 percent difference). For the verification simulation in Ariel Creek, the difference between the total observed and simulated flow volumes was 17 percent. Simulated peak flow discharges were within two hours of the observed for 30 of 46 peak flow events (discharge greater than 0.1 m3/sec) in Purdy Creek and 27 of 53 events in Ariel Creek. For 22 of the 46 events in Purdy Creek and 24 of 53 in Ariel Creek, the differences between the observed and simulated peak discharge rates were less than 30 percent. These 22 events accounted for 63 percent of total volume of streamflow observed during the selected 46 peak flow events in Purdy Creek. In Ariel Creek, these 24 peak flow events accounted for 62 percent of the total flow observed during all peak flow events. Differences in observed and simulated peak flow rates and volumes (on a percent basis) were greater during the snowmelt runoff events and summer periods than for other times.

What can we learn from simulating Stratospheric Sudden Warming periods with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics GCM?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A. I.; Hagan, M. E.; Roble, R. G.; Richmond, A. D.; Yudin, V. A.; Liu, H.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Burns, A. G.; Maruyama, N.

2013-12-01

The ionosphere-thermosphere system is not only influenced from geospace but also by meteorological variability. Ionospheric observations of GPS TEC during the current solar cycle have shown that the meteorological variability is important during solar minimum, but also can have significant ionospheric effects during solar medium to maximum conditions. Numerical models can be used to help understand the mechanisms that couple the lower and upper atmosphere over the solar cycle. Numerical modelers invoke different methods to simulate realistic, specified events of meteorological variability, e.g. specify the lower boundary forcing, nudge the middle atmosphere, data assimilation. To study the vertical coupling, we first need to assess the numerical models and the various methods used to simulate realistic events with respect to the dynamics of the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) region, the electrodynamics, and the ionosphere. This study focuses on Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) periods since these are associated with a strongly disturbed middle atmosphere which can have effects up to the ionosphere. We will use the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation model (TIME-GCM) to examine several recent SSW periods, e.g. 2009, 2012, and 2013. The SSW period in TIME-GCM will be specified in three different ways: 1. using reanalysis data to specify the lower boundary; 2. nudging the neutral atmosphere (temperature and winds) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) results; 3. nudging the background atmosphere (temperature and winds) with WACCM/GEOS5 results. The different forcing methods will be evaluated for the SSW periods with respect to the dynamics of the MLT region, the low latitude vertical drift changes, and the ionospheric effects for the different SSW periods. With the help of ionospheric data at different longitudinal sectors it will be possible to assess the simulations of the SSW periods and provide guidance for future studies.

Sensitivity of the interannual variability of mineral aerosol simulations to meteorological forcing dataset

DOE PAGES

Smith, Molly B.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Albani, Samuel; ...

2017-03-07

Interannual variability in desert dust is widely observed and simulated, yet the sensitivity of these desert dust simulations to a particular meteorological dataset, as well as a particular model construction, is not well known. Here we use version 4 of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM4) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to simulate dust forced by three different reanalysis meteorological datasets for the period 1990–2005. We then contrast the results of these simulations with dust simulated using online winds dynamically generated from sea surface temperatures, as well as with simulations conducted using other modeling frameworks but the same meteorological forcings, in order tomore » determine the sensitivity of climate model output to the specific reanalysis dataset used. For the seven cases considered in our study, the different model configurations are able to simulate the annual mean of the global dust cycle, seasonality and interannual variability approximately equally well (or poorly) at the limited observational sites available. Altogether, aerosol dust-source strength has remained fairly constant during the time period from 1990 to 2005, although there is strong seasonal and some interannual variability simulated in the models and seen in the observations over this time period. Model interannual variability comparisons to observations, as well as comparisons between models, suggest that interannual variability in dust is still difficult to simulate accurately, with averaged correlation coefficients of 0.1 to 0.6. Because of the large variability, at least 1 year of observations at most sites are needed to correctly observe the mean, but in some regions, particularly the remote oceans of the Southern Hemisphere, where interannual variability may be larger than in the Northern Hemisphere, 2–3 years of data are likely to be needed.« less

A Nonlinear Dynamical Systems based Model for Stochastic Simulation of Streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkyihun, S. T.; Rajagopalan, B.; Zagona, E. A.

2014-12-01

Traditional time series methods model the evolution of the underlying process as a linear or nonlinear function of the autocorrelation. These methods capture the distributional statistics but are incapable of providing insights into the dynamics of the process, the potential regimes, and predictability. This work develops a nonlinear dynamical model for stochastic simulation of streamflows. In this, first a wavelet spectral analysis is employed on the flow series to isolate dominant orthogonal quasi periodic timeseries components. The periodic bands are added denoting the 'signal' component of the time series and the residual being the 'noise' component. Next, the underlying nonlinear dynamics of this combined band time series is recovered. For this the univariate time series is embedded in a d-dimensional space with an appropriate lag T to recover the state space in which the dynamics unfolds. Predictability is assessed by quantifying the divergence of trajectories in the state space with time, as Lyapunov exponents. The nonlinear dynamics in conjunction with a K-nearest neighbor time resampling is used to simulate the combined band, to which the noise component is added to simulate the timeseries. We demonstrate this method by applying it to the data at Lees Ferry that comprises of both the paleo reconstructed and naturalized historic annual flow spanning 1490-2010. We identify interesting dynamics of the signal in the flow series and epochal behavior of predictability. These will be of immense use for water resources planning and management.

A Next-Generation Model of the Corona and Solar Wind

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-31

2007. The Sun was very quiet during this time. An extended coronal hole is visible in the observations and the simulation. (d) July 19, 2008...those synthesized from our model for August 27, 1996, when the “Elephant’s trunk” equatorial coronal hole was visible. To make a quantitative...especially the coronal hole regions, agree reasonably well. Figure 3 shows comparisons of simulated and actual emission for four other time periods. Frame (a

PyRETIS: A well-done, medium-sized python library for rare events.

PubMed

Lervik, Anders; Riccardi, Enrico; van Erp, Titus S

2017-10-30

Transition path sampling techniques are becoming common approaches in the study of rare events at the molecular scale. More efficient methods, such as transition interface sampling (TIS) and replica exchange transition interface sampling (RETIS), allow the investigation of rare events, for example, chemical reactions and structural/morphological transitions, in a reasonable computational time. Here, we present PyRETIS, a Python library for performing TIS and RETIS simulations. PyRETIS directs molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in order to sample rare events with unbiased dynamics. PyRETIS is designed to be easily interfaced with any molecular simulation package and in the present release, it has been interfaced with GROMACS and CP2K, for classical and ab initio MD simulations, respectively. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

AP-IO: asynchronous pipeline I/O for hiding periodic output cost in CFD simulation.

PubMed

Xiaoguang, Ren; Xinhai, Xu

2014-01-01

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation often needs to periodically output intermediate results to files in the form of snapshots for visualization or restart, which seriously impacts the performance. In this paper, we present asynchronous pipeline I/O (AP-IO) optimization scheme for the periodically snapshot output on the basis of asynchronous I/O and CFD application characteristics. In AP-IO, dedicated background I/O processes or threads are in charge of handling the file write in pipeline mode, therefore the write overhead can be hidden with more calculation than classic asynchronous I/O. We design the framework of AP-IO and implement it in OpenFOAM, providing CFD users with a user-friendly interface. Experimental results on the Tianhe-2 supercomputer demonstrate that AP-IO can achieve a good optimization effect for the periodical snapshot output in CFD application, and the effect is especially better for massively parallel CFD simulations, which can reduce the total execution time up to about 40%.

AP-IO: Asynchronous Pipeline I/O for Hiding Periodic Output Cost in CFD Simulation

PubMed Central

Xiaoguang, Ren; Xinhai, Xu

2014-01-01

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation often needs to periodically output intermediate results to files in the form of snapshots for visualization or restart, which seriously impacts the performance. In this paper, we present asynchronous pipeline I/O (AP-IO) optimization scheme for the periodically snapshot output on the basis of asynchronous I/O and CFD application characteristics. In AP-IO, dedicated background I/O processes or threads are in charge of handling the file write in pipeline mode, therefore the write overhead can be hidden with more calculation than classic asynchronous I/O. We design the framework of AP-IO and implement it in OpenFOAM, providing CFD users with a user-friendly interface. Experimental results on the Tianhe-2 supercomputer demonstrate that AP-IO can achieve a good optimization effect for the periodical snapshot output in CFD application, and the effect is especially better for massively parallel CFD simulations, which can reduce the total execution time up to about 40%. PMID:24955390

A dynamical systems analysis of the kinematics of time-periodic vortex shedding past a circular cylinder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ottino, Julio M.

1991-01-01

Computer flow simulation aided by dynamical systems analysis is used to investigate the kinematics of time-periodic vortex shedding past a two-dimensional circular cylinder in the context of the following general questions: (1) Is a dynamical systems viewpoint useful in the understanding of this and similar problems involving time-periodic shedding behind bluff bodies; and (2) Is it indeed possible, by adopting such a point of view, to complement previous analyses or to understand kinematical aspects of the vortex shedding process that somehow remained hidden in previous approaches. We argue that the answers to these questions are positive. Results are described.

Introducing a laparoscopic simulation training and credentialing program in gynaecology: an observational study.

PubMed

Janssens, Sarah; Beckmann, Michael; Bonney, Donna

2015-08-01

Simulation training in laparoscopic surgery has been shown to improve surgical performance. To describe the implementation of a laparoscopic simulation training and credentialing program for gynaecology registrars. A pilot program consisting of protected, supervised laparoscopic simulation time, a tailored curriculum and a credentialing process, was developed and implemented. Quantitative measures assessing simulated surgical performance were measured over the simulation training period. Laparoscopic procedures requiring credentialing were assessed for both the frequency of a registrar being the primary operator and the duration of surgery and compared to a presimulation cohort. Qualitative measures regarding quality of surgical training were assessed pre- and postsimulation. Improvements were seen in simulated surgical performance in efficiency domains. Operative time for procedures requiring credentialing was reduced by 12%. Primary operator status in the operating theatre for registrars was unchanged. Registrar assessment of training quality improved. The introduction of a laparoscopic simulation training and credentialing program resulted in improvements in simulated performance, reduced operative time and improved registrar assessment of the quality of training. © 2015 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Persistence of initial conditions in continental scale air quality simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogrefe, Christian; Roselle, Shawn J.; Bash, Jesse O.

2017-07-01

This study investigates the effect of initial conditions (IC) for pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere and soil on simulated air quality for two continental-scale Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model applications. One of these applications was performed for springtime and the second for summertime. Results show that a spin-up period of ten days commonly used in regional-scale applications may not be sufficient to reduce the effects of initial conditions to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged surface ozone concentrations everywhere while 20 days were found to be sufficient for the entire domain for the spring case and almost the entire domain for the summer case. For the summer case, differences were found to persist longer aloft due to circulation of air masses and even a spin-up period of 30 days was not sufficient to reduce the effects of ICs to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged layer 34 ozone concentrations over the southwestern portion of the modeling domain. Analysis of the effect of soil initial conditions for the CMAQ bidirectional NH3 exchange model shows that during springtime they can have an important effect on simulated inorganic aerosols concentrations for time periods of one month or longer. The effects are less pronounced during other seasons. The results, while specific to the modeling domain and time periods simulated here, suggest that modeling protocols need to be scrutinized for a given application and that it cannot be assumed that commonly-used spin-up periods are necessarily sufficient to reduce the effects of initial conditions on model results to an acceptable level. What constitutes an acceptable level of difference cannot be generalized and will depend on the particular application, time period and species of interest. Moreover, as the application of air quality models is being expanded to cover larger geographical domains and as these models are increasingly being coupled with other modeling systems to better represent air-surface-water exchanges, the effects of model initialization in such applications needs to be studied in future work.

Temporal downscaling of decadal sediment load estimates to a daily interval for use in hindcast simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, N.K.; Knowles, N.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2008-01-01

In this study we used hydrologic proxies to develop a daily sediment load time-series, which agrees with decadal sediment load estimates, when integrated. Hindcast simulations of bathymetric change in estuaries require daily sediment loads from major tributary rivers, to capture the episodic delivery of sediment during multi-day freshwater flow pulses. Two independent decadal sediment load estimates are available for the Sacramento/San Joaquin River Delta, California prior to 1959, but they must be downscaled to a daily interval for use in hindcast models. Daily flow and sediment load data to the Delta are available after 1930 and 1959, respectively, but bathymetric change simulations for San Francisco Bay prior to this require a method to generate daily sediment load estimates into the Delta. We used two historical proxies, monthly rainfall and unimpaired flow magnitudes, to generate monthly unimpaired flows to the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta for the 1851-1929 period. This step generated the shape of the monthly hydrograph. These historical monthly flows were compared to unimpaired monthly flows from the modern era (1967-1987), and a least-squares metric selected a modern water year analogue for each historical water year. The daily hydrograph for the modern analogue was then assigned to the historical year and scaled to match the flow volume estimated by dendrochronology methods, providing the correct total flow for the year. We applied a sediment rating curve to this time-series of daily flows, to generate daily sediment loads for 1851-1958. The rating curve was calibrated with the two independent decadal sediment load estimates, over two distinct periods. This novel technique retained the timing and magnitude of freshwater flows and sediment loads, without damping variability or net sediment loads to San Francisco Bay. The time-series represents the hydraulic mining period with sustained periods of increased sediment loads, and a dramatic decrease after 1910, corresponding to a reduction in available mining debris. The analogue selection procedure also permits exploration of the morphological hydrograph concept, where a limited set of hydrographs is used to simulate the same bathymetric change as the actual set of hydrographs. The final daily sediment load time-series and morphological hydrograph concept will be applied as landward boundary conditions for hindcasting simulations of bathymetric change in San Francisco Bay.

Using simulation in out-patient queues: a case study.

PubMed

Huarng, F; Lee, M H

1996-01-01

Overwork and overcrowding in some periods was an important issue for the out-patient department of a local hospital in Chia-Yi in Taiwan. The hospital administrators wanted to manage the patient flow effectively. Describes a study which focused on the utilization of doctors and staff in the out-patient department, the time spent in the hospital by an out-patient, and the length of the out-patient queue. Explains how a computer simulation model was developed to study how changes in the appointment system, staffing policies and service units would affect the observed bottleneck. The results show that the waiting time was greatly reduced and the workload of the doctor was also reduced to a reasonable rate in the overwork and overcrowding periods.

Single-pass incremental force updates for adaptively restrained molecular dynamics.

PubMed

Singh, Krishna Kant; Redon, Stephane

2018-03-30

Adaptively restrained molecular dynamics (ARMD) allows users to perform more integration steps in wall-clock time by switching on and off positional degrees of freedoms. This article presents new, single-pass incremental force updates algorithms to efficiently simulate a system using ARMD. We assessed different algorithms for speedup measurements and implemented them in the LAMMPS MD package. We validated the single-pass incremental force update algorithm on four different benchmarks using diverse pair potentials. The proposed algorithm allows us to perform simulation of a system faster than traditional MD in both NVE and NVT ensembles. Moreover, ARMD using the new single-pass algorithm speeds up the convergence of observables in wall-clock time. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Rank One Strange Attractors in Periodically Kicked Predator-Prey System with Time-Delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Wenjie; Lin, Yiping; Dai, Yunxian; Zhao, Huitao

2016-06-01

This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of rank one strange attractor in a periodically kicked predator-prey system with time-delay. Our discussion is based on the theory of rank one maps formulated by Wang and Young. Firstly, we develop the rank one chaotic theory to delayed systems. It is shown that strange attractors occur when the delayed system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation and encounters an external periodic force. Then we use the theory to the periodically kicked predator-prey system with delay, deriving the conditions for Hopf bifurcation and rank one chaos along with the results of numerical simulations.

Octree-based, GPU implementation of a continuous cellular automaton for the simulation of complex, evolving surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrando, N.; Gosálvez, M. A.; Cerdá, J.; Gadea, R.; Sato, K.

2011-03-01

Presently, dynamic surface-based models are required to contain increasingly larger numbers of points and to propagate them over longer time periods. For large numbers of surface points, the octree data structure can be used as a balance between low memory occupation and relatively rapid access to the stored data. For evolution rules that depend on neighborhood states, extended simulation periods can be obtained by using simplified atomistic propagation models, such as the Cellular Automata (CA). This method, however, has an intrinsic parallel updating nature and the corresponding simulations are highly inefficient when performed on classical Central Processing Units (CPUs), which are designed for the sequential execution of tasks. In this paper, a series of guidelines is presented for the efficient adaptation of octree-based, CA simulations of complex, evolving surfaces into massively parallel computing hardware. A Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) is used as a cost-efficient example of the parallel architectures. For the actual simulations, we consider the surface propagation during anisotropic wet chemical etching of silicon as a computationally challenging process with a wide-spread use in microengineering applications. A continuous CA model that is intrinsically parallel in nature is used for the time evolution. Our study strongly indicates that parallel computations of dynamically evolving surfaces simulated using CA methods are significantly benefited by the incorporation of octrees as support data structures, substantially decreasing the overall computational time and memory usage.

Photon energy lifter.

PubMed

Gaburro, Zeno; Ghulinyan, Mher; Riboli, Francesco; Pavesi, Lorenzo; Recati, Alessio; Carusotto, Iacopo

2006-08-07

We propose a time-dependent, spatially periodic photonic structure which is able to shift the carrier frequency of an optical pulse which propagates through it. Taking advantage of the slow group velocity of light in periodic photonic structures, the wavelength conversion process can be performed with an efficiency close to 1 and without affecting the shape and the coherence of the pulse. Quantitative Finite Difference Time Domain simulations are performed for realistic systems with optical parameters of conventional silicon technology.

Optical Survey of the Tumble Rates of Retired GEO Satellites

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

objects while the sun- satellite -observer geometry was most favorable; typically over a one- to two-hour period, repeated multiple times over the course of...modeling and simulation of the optical characteristics of the satellite can help to resolve ambigu- ities. This process was validated on spacecraft for... satellite -observer geometry was most favorable; typically over a one- to two-hour period, repeated multiple times over the course of weeks. By

Study on ion energy distribution in low-frequency oscillation time scale of Hall thrusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Liqiu; Li, Wenbo; Ding, Yongjie; Han, Liang; Yu, Daren; Cao, Yong

2017-11-01

This paper reports on the dynamic characteristics of the distribution of ion energy during Hall thruster discharge in the low-frequency oscillation time scale through experimental studies, and a statistical analysis of the time-varying peak and width of ion energy and the ratio of high-energy ions during the low-frequency oscillation. The results show that the ion energy distribution exhibits a periodic change during the low-frequency oscillation. Moreover, the variation in the ion energy peak is opposite to that of the discharge current, and the variations in width of the ion energy distribution and the ratio of high-energy ions are consistent with that of the discharge current. The variation characteristics of the ion density and discharge potential were simulated by one-dimensional hybrid-direct kinetic simulations; the simulation results and analysis indicate that the periodic change in the distribution of ion energy during the low-frequency oscillation depends on the relationship between the ionization source term and discharge potential distribution during ionization in the discharge channel.

Teaching cardiovascular physiology with equivalent electronic circuits in a practically oriented teaching module.

PubMed

Ribaric, Samo; Kordas, Marjan

2011-06-01

Here, we report on a new tool for teaching cardiovascular physiology and pathophysiology that promotes qualitative as well as quantitative thinking about time-dependent physiological phenomena. Quantification of steady and presteady-state (transient) cardiovascular phenomena is traditionally done by differential equations, but this is time consuming and unsuitable for most undergraduate medical students. As a result, quantitative thinking about time-dependent physiological phenomena is often not extensively dealt with in an undergraduate physiological course. However, basic concepts of steady and presteady state can be explained with relative simplicity, without the introduction of differential equation, with equivalent electronic circuits (EECs). We introduced undergraduate medical students to the concept of simulating cardiovascular phenomena with EECs. EEC simulations facilitate the understanding of simple or complex time-dependent cardiovascular physiological phenomena by stressing the analogies between EECs and physiological processes. Student perceptions on using EEC to simulate, study, and understand cardiovascular phenomena were documented over a 9-yr period, and the impact of the course on the students' knowledge of selected basic facts and concepts in cardiovascular physiology was evaluated over a 3-yr period. We conclude that EECs are a valuable tool for teaching cardiovascular physiology concepts and that EECs promote active learning.

An evaluation of Dynamic TOPMODEL for low flow simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coxon, G.; Freer, J. E.; Quinn, N.; Woods, R. A.; Wagener, T.; Howden, N. J. K.

2015-12-01

Hydrological models are essential tools for drought risk management, often providing input to water resource system models, aiding our understanding of low flow processes within catchments and providing low flow predictions. However, simulating low flows and droughts is challenging as hydrological systems often demonstrate threshold effects in connectivity, non-linear groundwater contributions and a greater influence of water resource system elements during low flow periods. These dynamic processes are typically not well represented in commonly used hydrological models due to data and model limitations. Furthermore, calibrated or behavioural models may not be effectively evaluated during more extreme drought periods. A better understanding of the processes that occur during low flows and how these are represented within models is thus required if we want to be able to provide robust and reliable predictions of future drought events. In this study, we assess the performance of dynamic TOPMODEL for low flow simulation. Dynamic TOPMODEL was applied to a number of UK catchments in the Thames region using time series of observed rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data that captured multiple historic droughts over a period of several years. The model performance was assessed against the observed discharge time series using a limits of acceptability framework, which included uncertainty in the discharge time series. We evaluate the models against multiple signatures of catchment low-flow behaviour and investigate differences in model performance between catchments, model diagnostics and for different low flow periods. We also considered the impact of surface water and groundwater abstractions and discharges on the observed discharge time series and how this affected the model evaluation. From analysing the model performance, we suggest future improvements to Dynamic TOPMODEL to improve the representation of low flow processes within the model structure.

Simulation of a Synthetic Jet in Quiescent Air Using TLNS3D Flow Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vatsa, Veer N.; Turkel, Eli

2007-01-01

Although the actuator geometry is highly three-dimensional, the outer flowfield is nominally two-dimensional because of the high aspect ratio of the rectangular slot. For the present study, this configuration is modeled as a two-dimensional problem. A multi-block structured grid available at the CFDVAL2004 website is used as a baseline grid. The periodic motion of the diaphragm is simulated by specifying a sinusoidal velocity at the diaphragm surface with a frequency of 450 Hz, corresponding to the experimental setup. The amplitude is chosen so that the maximum Mach number at the jet exit is approximately 0.1, to replicate the experimental conditions. At the solid walls zero slip, zero injection, adiabatic temperature and zero pressure gradient conditions are imposed. In the external region, symmetry conditions are imposed on the side (vertical) boundaries and far-field conditions are imposed on the top boundary. A nominal free-stream Mach number of 0.001 is imposed in the free stream to simulate incompressible flow conditions in the TLNS3D code, which solves compressible flow equations. The code was run in unsteady (URANS) mode until the periodicity was established. The time-mean quantities were obtained by running the code for at least another 15 periods and averaging the flow quantities over these periods. The phase-locked average of flow quantities were assumed to be coincident with their values during the last full time period.

Effects of Meteorological Variability on the Thermosphere-Ionosphere System during the Moderate Geomagnetic Disturbed January 2013 Period As Simulated By Time-GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A. I.; Hagan, M. E.; Richmond, A. D.; Liu, H.; Yudin, V. A.

2014-12-01

The ionosphere-thermosphere system is affected by solar and magnetospheric processes and by meteorological variability. Ionospheric observations of total electron content during the current solar cycle have shown that variability associated with meteorological forcing is important during solar minimum, and can have significant ionospheric effects during solar medium to maximum conditions. Numerical models can be used to study the comparative importance of geomagnetic and meterological forcing.This study focuses on the January 2013 Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) period, which is associated with a very disturbed middle atmosphere as well as with moderately disturbed solar geomagntic conditions. We employ the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) with a nudging scheme using Whole-Atmosphere-Community-Climate-Model-Extended (WACCM-X)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS5) results to simulate the effects of the meteorological and solar wind forcing on the upper atmosphere. The model results are evaluated by comparing with observations e.g., TEC, NmF2, ion drifts. We study the effect of the SSW on the wave spectrum, and the associated changes in the low latitude vertical drifts. These changes are compared to the impact of the moderate geomagnetic forcing on the TI-system during the January 2013 time period by conducting numerical experiments. We will present select highlights from our study and elude to the comparative importance of the forcing from above and below as simulated by the TIME-GCM.

The efficacy of a restart break for recycling with optimal performance depends critically on circadian timing.

PubMed

Van Dongen, Hans P A; Belenky, Gregory; Vila, Bryan J

2011-07-01

Under simulated shift-work conditions, we investigated the efficacy of a restart break for maintaining neurobehavioral functioning across consecutive duty cycles, as a function of the circadian timing of the duty periods. As part of a 14-day experiment, subjects underwent two cycles of five simulated daytime or nighttime duty days, separated by a 34-hour restart break. Cognitive functioning and high-fidelity driving simulator performance were tested 4 times per day during the two duty cycles. Lapses on a psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) served as the primary outcome variable. Selected sleep periods were recorded polysomnographically. The experiment was conducted under standardized, controlled laboratory conditions with continuous monitoring. Twenty-seven healthy adults (13 men, 14 women; aged 22-39 years) participated in the study. Subjects were randomly assigned to a nighttime duty (experimental) condition or a daytime duty (control) condition. The efficacy of the 34-hour restart break for maintaining neurobehavioral functioning from the pre-restart duty cycle to the post-restart duty cycle was compared between these two conditions. Relative to the daytime duty condition, the nighttime duty condition was associated with reduced amounts of sleep, whereas sleep latencies were shortened and slow-wave sleep appeared to be conserved. Neurobehavioral performance measures ranging from lapses of attention on the PVT to calculated fuel consumption on the driving simulators remained optimal across time of day in the daytime duty schedule, but degraded across time of night in the nighttime duty schedule. The 34-hour restart break was efficacious for maintaining PVT performance and other objective neurobehavioral functioning profiles from one duty cycle to the next in the daytime duty condition, but not in the nighttime duty condition. Subjective sleepiness did not reliably track objective neurobehavioral deficits. The 34-hour restart break was adequate for maintaining performance in the case of optimal circadian placement of sleep and duty periods (control condition) but was inadequate (and perhaps even detrimental) for maintaining performance in a simulated nighttime duty schedule (experimental condition). Current US transportation hours-of-service regulations mandate time off duty but do not consider the circadian aspects of shift scheduling. Reinforcing a recent trend of applying sleep science to inform policymaking for duty and rest times, our findings indicate that restart provisions in hours-of-service regulations could be improved by taking the circadian timing of the duty schedules into account.

A Large number of fast cosmological simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koda, Jun; Kazin, E.; Blake, C.

2014-01-01

Mock galaxy catalogs are essential tools to analyze large-scale structure data. Many independent realizations of mock catalogs are necessary to evaluate the uncertainties in the measurements. We perform 3600 cosmological simulations for the WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey to obtain the new improved Baron Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) cosmic distance measurements using the density field "reconstruction" technique. We use 1296^3 particles in a periodic box of 600/h Mpc on a side, which is the minimum requirement from the survey volume and observed galaxies. In order to perform such large number of simulations, we developed a parallel code using the COmoving Lagrangian Acceleration (COLA) method, which can simulate cosmological large-scale structure reasonably well with only 10 time steps. Our simulation is more than 100 times faster than conventional N-body simulations; one COLA simulation takes only 15 minutes with 216 computing cores. We have completed the 3600 simulations with a reasonable computation time of 200k core hours. We also present the results of the revised WiggleZ BAO distance measurement, which are significantly improved by the reconstruction technique.

A comparison of estimators from self-controlled case series, case-crossover design, and sequence symmetry analysis for pharmacoepidemiological studies.

PubMed

Takeuchi, Yoshinori; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Matsuyama, Yutaka

2018-01-08

Despite the frequent use of self-controlled methods in pharmacoepidemiological studies, the factors that may bias the estimates from these methods have not been adequately compared in real-world settings. Here, we comparatively examined the impact of a time-varying confounder and its interactions with time-invariant confounders, time trends in exposures and events, restrictions, and misspecification of risk period durations on the estimators from three self-controlled methods. This study analyzed self-controlled case series (SCCS), case-crossover (CCO) design, and sequence symmetry analysis (SSA) using simulated and actual electronic medical records datasets. We evaluated the performance of the three self-controlled methods in simulated cohorts for the following scenarios: 1) time-invariant confounding with interactions between the confounders, 2) time-invariant and time-varying confounding without interactions, 3) time-invariant and time-varying confounding with interactions among the confounders, 4) time trends in exposures and events, 5) restricted follow-up time based on event occurrence, and 6) patient restriction based on event history. The sensitivity of the estimators to misspecified risk period durations was also evaluated. As a case study, we applied these methods to evaluate the risk of macrolides on liver injury using electronic medical records. In the simulation analysis, time-varying confounding produced bias in the SCCS and CCO design estimates, which aggravated in the presence of interactions between the time-invariant and time-varying confounders. The SCCS estimates were biased by time trends in both exposures and events. Erroneously short risk periods introduced bias to the CCO design estimate, whereas erroneously long risk periods introduced bias to the estimates of all three methods. Restricting the follow-up time led to severe bias in the SSA estimates. The SCCS estimates were sensitive to patient restriction. The case study showed that although macrolide use was significantly associated with increased liver injury occurrence in all methods, the value of the estimates varied. The estimations of the three self-controlled methods depended on various underlying assumptions, and the violation of these assumptions may cause non-negligible bias in the resulting estimates. Pharmacoepidemiologists should select the appropriate self-controlled method based on how well the relevant key assumptions are satisfied with respect to the available data.

Using travel times to simulate multi-dimensional bioreactive transport in time-periodic flows.

PubMed

Sanz-Prat, Alicia; Lu, Chuanhe; Finkel, Michael; Cirpka, Olaf A

2016-04-01

In travel-time models, the spatially explicit description of reactive transport is replaced by associating reactive-species concentrations with the travel time or groundwater age at all locations. These models have been shown adequate for reactive transport in river-bank filtration under steady-state flow conditions. Dynamic hydrological conditions, however, can lead to fluctuations of infiltration velocities, putting the validity of travel-time models into question. In transient flow, the local travel-time distributions change with time. We show that a modified version of travel-time based reactive transport models is valid if only the magnitude of the velocity fluctuates, whereas its spatial orientation remains constant. We simulate nonlinear, one-dimensional, bioreactive transport involving oxygen, nitrate, dissolved organic carbon, aerobic and denitrifying bacteria, considering periodic fluctuations of velocity. These fluctuations make the bioreactive system pulsate: The aerobic zone decreases at times of low velocity and increases at those of high velocity. For the case of diurnal fluctuations, the biomass concentrations cannot follow the hydrological fluctuations and a transition zone containing both aerobic and obligatory denitrifying bacteria is established, whereas a clear separation of the two types of bacteria prevails in the case of seasonal velocity fluctuations. We map the 1-D results to a heterogeneous, two-dimensional domain by means of the mean groundwater age for steady-state flow in both domains. The mapped results are compared to simulation results of spatially explicit, two-dimensional, advective-dispersive-bioreactive transport subject to the same relative fluctuations of velocity as in the one-dimensional model. The agreement between the mapped 1-D and the explicit 2-D results is excellent. We conclude that travel-time models of nonlinear bioreactive transport are adequate in systems of time-periodic flow if the flow direction does not change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Monotonic Lagrangian Grid and Lat-Long Grid for Air Traffic Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, Carolyn; Dahm, Johann; Oran, Elaine; Alexandrov, Natalia; Boris, Jay

2011-01-01

The Air Traffic Monotonic Lagrangian Grid (ATMLG) is used to simulate a 24 hour period of air traffic flow in the National Airspace System (NAS). During this time period, there are 41,594 flights over the United States, and the flight plan information (departure and arrival airports and times, and waypoints along the way) are obtained from an Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS) dataset. Two simulation procedures are tested and compared: one based on the Monotonic Lagrangian Grid (MLG), and the other based on the stationary Latitude-Longitude (Lat- Long) grid. Simulating one full day of air traffic over the United States required the following amounts of CPU time on a single processor of an SGI Altix: 88 s for the MLG method, and 163 s for the Lat-Long grid method. We present a discussion of the amount of CPU time required for each of the simulation processes (updating aircraft trajectories, sorting, conflict detection and resolution, etc.), and show that the main advantage of the MLG method is that it is a general sorting algorithm that can sort on multiple properties. We discuss how many MLG neighbors must be considered in the separation assurance procedure in order to ensure a five-mile separation buffer between aircraft, and we investigate the effect of removing waypoints from aircraft trajectories. When aircraft choose their own trajectory, there are more flights with shorter duration times and fewer CD&R maneuvers, resulting in significant fuel savings.

Effect of helicity on the correlation time of large scales in turbulent flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cameron, Alexandre; Alexakis, Alexandros; Brachet, Marc-Étienne

2017-11-01

Solutions of the forced Navier-Stokes equation have been conjectured to thermalize at scales larger than the forcing scale, similar to an absolute equilibrium obtained for the spectrally truncated Euler equation. Using direct numeric simulations of Taylor-Green flows and general-periodic helical flows, we present results on the probability density function, energy spectrum, autocorrelation function, and correlation time that compare the two systems. In the case of highly helical flows, we derive an analytic expression describing the correlation time for the absolute equilibrium of helical flows that is different from the E-1 /2k-1 scaling law of weakly helical flows. This model predicts a new helicity-based scaling law for the correlation time as τ (k ) ˜H-1 /2k-1 /2 . This scaling law is verified in simulations of the truncated Euler equation. In simulations of the Navier-Stokes equations the large-scale modes of forced Taylor-Green symmetric flows (with zero total helicity and large separation of scales) follow the same properties as absolute equilibrium including a τ (k ) ˜E-1 /2k-1 scaling for the correlation time. General-periodic helical flows also show similarities between the two systems; however, the largest scales of the forced flows deviate from the absolute equilibrium solutions.

African Easterly Waves in 30-day High-Resolution Global Simulations: A Case Study During the 2006 NAMMA Period

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Bo-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wu, Man-Li C.

2010-01-01

In this study, extended -range (30 -day) high-resolution simulations with the NASA global mesoscale model are conducted to simulate the initiation and propagation of six consecutive African easterly waves (AEWs) from late August to September 2006 and their association with hurricane formation. It is shown that the statistical characteristics of individual AEWs are realistically simulated with larger errors in the 5th and 6th AEWs. Remarkable simulations of a mean African easterly jet (AEJ) are also obtained. Nine additional 30 -day experiments suggest that although land surface processes might contribute to the predictability of the AEJ and AEWs, the initiation and detailed evolution of AEWs still depend on the accurate representation of dynamic and land surface initial conditions and their time -varying nonlinear interactions. Of interest is the potential to extend the lead time for predicting hurricane formation (e.g., a lead time of up to 22 days) as the 4th AEW is realistically simulated.

Simulation of electricity demand in a remote island for optimal planning of a hybrid renewable energy system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koskinas, Aristotelis; Zacharopoulou, Eleni; Pouliasis, George; Engonopoulos, Ioannis; Mavroyeoryos, Konstantinos; Deligiannis, Ilias; Karakatsanis, Georgios; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Tyralis, Hristos

2017-04-01

We simulate the electrical energy demand in the remote island of Astypalaia. To this end we first obtain information regarding the local socioeconomic conditions and energy demand. Secondly, the available hourly demand data are analysed at various time scales (hourly, weekly, daily, seasonal). The cross-correlations between the electrical energy demand and the mean daily temperature as well as other climatic variables for the same time period are computed. Also, we investigate the cross-correlation between those climatic variables and other variables related to renewable energy resources from numerous observations around the globe in order to assess the impact of each one to a hybrid renewable energy system. An exploratory data analysis including all variables is performed with the purpose to find hidden relationships. Finally, the demand is simulated considering all the periodicities found in the analysis. The simulation time series will be used in the development of a framework for planning of a hybrid renewable energy system in Astypalaia. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

Simulated runoff at many stream locations in the Methow River Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.

2015-01-01

Comparisons of the simulated runoff with observed runoff at six selected long-term streamflow-gaging stations showed that the simulated annual runoff was within +15.4 to -9.6 percent of the annual observed runoff. The simulated runoff generally matched the seasonal flow patterns, with bias at some stations indicated by over-simulation of the October–November late autumn season and under-simulation of the snowmelt runoff months of May and June. Sixty-one time series of daily runoff for a 26-year period representative of the long-term runoff pattern, water years 1988–2013, were simulated and provided to the trophic modeling team.

Using an Integrated Surface Water - Groundwater Flow Model for Evaluating the Hydrologic Impacts of Historic and Potential Future Dry Periods on Simulated Water Budgets in the Santa Rosa Plain Watershed, Northern California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hevesi, J. A.; Woolfenden, L. R.; Nishikawa, T.

2014-12-01

Communities in the Santa Rosa Plain watershed (SRPW), Sonoma County, CA, USA are experiencing increasing demand for limited water resources. Streamflow in the SRPW is runoff dominated; however, groundwater also is an important resource in the basin. The watershed has an area of 262 mi2 that includes natural, agricultural, and urban land uses. To evaluate the hydrologic system, an integrated hydrologic model was developed using the U.S. Geological Survey coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model, GSFLOW. The model uses a daily time step and a grid-based discretization of the SRPW consisting of 16,741 10-acre cells for 8 model layers to simulate all water budget components of the surface and subsurface hydrologic system. Simulation results indicate significant impacts on streamflow and recharge in response to the below average precipitation during the dry periods. The recharge and streamflow distributions simulated for historic dry periods were compared to future dry periods projected from 4 GCM realizations (two different GCMs and two different CO2 forcing scenarios) for the 21st century, with the dry periods defined as 3 consecutive years of below average precipitation. For many of the projected dry periods, the decreases in recharge and streamflow were greater than for the historic dry periods due to a combination of lower precipitation and increases in simulated evapotranspiration for the warmer 21st century projected by the GCM realizations. The greatest impact on streamflow for both historic and projected future dry periods is the diminished baseflow from late spring to early fall, with an increase in the percentage of intermittent and dry stream reaches. The results indicate that the coupled model is a useful tool for water managers to better understand the potential effects of future dry periods on spatially and temporally distributed streamflow and recharge, as well as other components of the water budget.

Evaluation of Bayesian estimation of a hidden continuous-time Markov chain model with application to threshold violation in water-quality indicators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deviney, Frank A.; Rice, Karen; Brown, Donald E.

2012-01-01

Natural resource managers require information concerning  the frequency, duration, and long-term probability of occurrence of water-quality indicator (WQI) violations of defined thresholds. The timing of these threshold crossings often is hidden from the observer, who is restricted to relatively infrequent observations. Here, a model for the hidden process is linked with a model for the observations, and the parameters describing duration, return period, and long-term probability of occurrence are estimated using Bayesian methods. A simulation experiment is performed to evaluate the approach under scenarios based on the equivalent of a total monitoring period of 5-30 years and an observation frequency of 1-50 observations per year. Given constant threshold crossing rate, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer total monitoring period and more-frequent observations. Given fixed monitoring period and observation frequency, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer times between threshold crossings. For most cases where the long-term probability of being in violation is greater than 0.10, it was determined that at least 600 observations are needed to achieve precise estimates.  An application of the approach is presented using 22 years of quasi-weekly observations of acid-neutralizing capacity from Deep Run, a stream in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia. The time series also was sub-sampled to simulate monthly and semi-monthly sampling protocols. Estimates of the long-term probability of violation were unbiased despite sampling frequency; however, the expected duration and return period were over-estimated using the sub-sampled time series with respect to the full quasi-weekly time series.

Precipitation From a Multiyear Database of Convection-Allowing WRF Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goines, D. C.; Kennedy, A. D.

2018-03-01

Convection-allowing models (CAMs) have become frequently used for operational forecasting and, more recently, have been utilized for general circulation model downscaling. CAM forecasts have typically been analyzed for a few case studies or over short time periods, but this limits the ability to judge the overall skill of deterministic simulations. Analysis over long time periods can yield a better understanding of systematic model error. Four years of warm season (April-August, 2010-2013)-simulated precipitation has been accumulated from two Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models with 4 km grid spacing. The simulations were provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), each with different dynamic cores and parameterization schemes. These simulations are evaluated against the NCEP Stage-IV precipitation data set with similar 4 km grid spacing. The spatial distribution and diurnal cycle of precipitation in the central United States are analyzed using Hovmöller diagrams, grid point correlations, and traditional verification skill scoring (i.e., ETS; Equitable Threat Score). Although NCEP-WRF had a high positive error in total precipitation, spatial characteristics were similar to observations. For example, the spatial distribution of NCEP-WRF precipitation correlated better than NSSL-WRF for the Northern Plains. Hovmöller results exposed a delay in initiation and decay of diurnal precipitation by NCEP-WRF while both models had difficulty in reproducing the timing and location of propagating precipitation. ETS was highest for NSSL-WRF in all domains at all times. ETS was also higher in areas of propagating precipitation compared to areas of unorganized diurnal scattered precipitation. Monthly analysis identified unique differences between the two models in their abilities to correctly simulate the spatial distribution and zonal motion of precipitation through the warm season.

Production Planning and Simulation for Reverse Supply Chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murayama, Takeshi; Yoda, Mitsunobu; Eguchi, Toru; Oba, Fuminori

This paper describes a production planning method for a reverse supply chain, in which a disassembly company takes reusable components from returned used products and supplies the reusable components for a product manufacturer. This method addresses the issue that the timings and quantities of returned products and reusable components obtained from them are unknown. This method first predicts the quantities of returned products and reusable components at each time period by using reliability models. Using the prediction result, the method performs production planning based on Material Requirements Planning (MRP). This method enables us to plan at each time period: the quantity of the products to be disassembled; the quantity of the reusable components to be used; and the quantity of the new components to be produced. The flow of the components and products through a forward and reverse supply chain is simulated to show the effectiveness of the method.

Simulation of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality in Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado, for 1985 through 1987 and 1999 through 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galloway, Joel M.; Ortiz, Roderick F.; Bales, Jerad D.; Mau, David P.

2008-01-01

Pueblo Reservoir is west of Pueblo, Colorado, and is an important water resource for southeastern Colorado. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. In anticipation of increased population growth, the cities of Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West have proposed building a pipeline that would be capable of conveying 78 million gallons of raw water per day (240 acre-feet) from Pueblo Reservoir. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs Utilities and the Bureau of Reclamation, developed, calibrated, and verified a hydrodynamic and water-quality model of Pueblo Reservoir to describe the hydrologic, chemical, and biological processes in Pueblo Reservoir that can be used to assess environmental effects in the reservoir. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics in Pueblo Reservoir were simulated using a laterally averaged, two-dimensional model that was calibrated using data collected from October 1985 through September 1987. The Pueblo Reservoir model was calibrated based on vertical profiles of water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration, and water-quality constituent concentrations collected in the epilimnion and hypolimnion at four sites in the reservoir. The calibrated model was verified with data from October 1999 through September 2002, which included a relatively wet year (water year 2000), an average year (water year 2001), and a dry year (water year 2002). Simulated water temperatures compared well to measured water temperatures in Pueblo Reservoir from October 1985 through September 1987. Spatially, simulated water temperatures compared better to measured water temperatures in the downstream part of the reservoir than in the upstream part of the reservoir. Differences between simulated and measured water temperatures also varied through time. Simulated water temperatures were slightly less than measured water temperatures from March to May 1986 and 1987, and slightly greater than measured data in August and September 1987. Relative to the calibration period, simulated water temperatures during the verification period did not compare as well to measured water temperatures. In general, simulated dissolved-oxygen concentrations for the calibration period compared well to measured concentrations in Pueblo Reservoir. Spatially, simulated concentrations deviated more from the measured values at the downstream part of the reservoir than at other locations in the reservoir. Overall, the absolute mean error ranged from 1.05 (site 1B) to 1.42 milligrams per liter (site 7B), and the root mean square error ranged from 1.12 (site 1B) to 1.67 milligrams per liter (site 7B). Simulated dissolved oxygen in the verification period compared better to the measured concentrations than in the calibration period. The absolute mean error ranged from 0.91 (site 5C) to 1.28 milligrams per liter (site 7B), and the root mean square error ranged from 1.03 (site 5C) to 1.46 milligrams per liter (site 7B). Simulated total dissolved solids generally were less than measured total dissolved-solids concentrations in Pueblo Reservoir from October 1985 through September 1987. The largest differences between simulated and measured total dissolved solids were observed at the most downstream sites in Pueblo Reservoir during the second year of the calibration period. Total dissolved-solids data were not available from reservoir sites during the verification period, so in-reservoir specific-conductance data were compared to simulated total dissolved solids. Simulated total dissolved solids followed the same patterns through time as the measured specific conductance data during the verification period. Simulated total nitrogen concentrations compared relatively well to measured concentrations in the Pueblo Reservoir model. The absolute mean error ranged from 0.21 (site 1B) to 0.27 milligram per liter as nitrogen (sites 3B and 7

A cardioid oscillator with asymmetric time ratio for establishing CPG models.

PubMed

Fu, Q; Wang, D H; Xu, L; Yuan, G

2018-01-13

Nonlinear oscillators are usually utilized by bionic scientists for establishing central pattern generator models for imitating rhythmic motions by bionic scientists. In the natural word, many rhythmic motions possess asymmetric time ratios, which means that the forward and the backward motions of an oscillating process sustain different times within one period. In order to model rhythmic motions with asymmetric time ratios, nonlinear oscillators with asymmetric forward and backward trajectories within one period should be studied. In this paper, based on the property of the invariant set, a method to design the closed curve in the phase plane of a dynamic system as its limit cycle is proposed. Utilizing the proposed method and considering that a cardioid curve is a kind of asymmetrical closed curves, a cardioid oscillator with asymmetric time ratios is proposed and realized. Through making the derivation of the closed curve in the phase plane of a dynamic system equal to zero, the closed curve is designed as its limit cycle. Utilizing the proposed limit cycle design method and according to the global invariant set theory, a cardioid oscillator applying a cardioid curve as its limit cycle is achieved. On these bases, the numerical simulations are conducted for analyzing the behaviors of the cardioid oscillator. The example utilizing the established cardioid oscillator to simulate rhythmic motions of the hip joint of a human body in the sagittal plane is presented. The results of the numerical simulations indicate that, whatever the initial condition is and without any outside input, the proposed cardioid oscillator possesses the following properties: (1) The proposed cardioid oscillator is able to generate a series of periodic and anti-interference self-exciting trajectories, (2) the generated trajectories possess an asymmetric time ratio, and (3) the time ratio can be regulated by adjusting the oscillator's parameters. Furthermore, the comparison between the simulated trajectories by the established cardioid oscillator and the measured angle trajectories of the hip angle of a human body show that the proposed cardioid oscillator is fit for imitating the rhythmic motions of the hip of a human body with asymmetric time ratios.

Fixed-base simulator study of the effect of time delays in visual cues on pilot tracking performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Queijo, M. J.; Riley, D. R.

1975-01-01

Factors were examined which determine the amount of time delay acceptable in the visual feedback loop in flight simulators. Acceptable time delays are defined as delays which significantly affect neither the results nor the manner in which the subject 'flies' the simulator. The subject tracked a target aircraft as it oscillated sinusoidally in a vertical plane only. The pursuing aircraft was permitted five degrees of freedom. Time delays of from 0.047 to 0.297 second were inserted in the visual feedback loop. A side task was employed to maintain the workload constant and to insure that the pilot was fully occupied during the experiment. Tracking results were obtained for 17 aircraft configurations having different longitudinal short-period characteristics. Results show a positive correlation between improved handling qualities and a longer acceptable time delay.

Inference on periodicity of circadian time series.

PubMed

Costa, Maria J; Finkenstädt, Bärbel; Roche, Véronique; Lévi, Francis; Gould, Peter D; Foreman, Julia; Halliday, Karen; Hall, Anthony; Rand, David A

2013-09-01

Estimation of the period length of time-course data from cyclical biological processes, such as those driven by the circadian pacemaker, is crucial for inferring the properties of the biological clock found in many living organisms. We propose a methodology for period estimation based on spectrum resampling (SR) techniques. Simulation studies show that SR is superior and more robust to non-sinusoidal and noisy cycles than a currently used routine based on Fourier approximations. In addition, a simple fit to the oscillations using linear least squares is available, together with a non-parametric test for detecting changes in period length which allows for period estimates with different variances, as frequently encountered in practice. The proposed methods are motivated by and applied to various data examples from chronobiology.

Optimal Periodic Cooperative Spectrum Sensing Based on Weight Fusion in Cognitive Radio Networks

PubMed Central

Liu, Xin; Jia, Min; Gu, Xuemai; Tan, Xuezhi

2013-01-01

The performance of cooperative spectrum sensing in cognitive radio (CR) networks depends on the sensing mode, the sensing time and the number of cooperative users. In order to improve the sensing performance and reduce the interference to the primary user (PU), a periodic cooperative spectrum sensing model based on weight fusion is proposed in this paper. Moreover, the sensing period, the sensing time and the searching time are optimized, respectively. Firstly the sensing period is optimized to improve the spectrum utilization and reduce the interference, then the joint optimization algorithm of the local sensing time and the number of cooperative users, is proposed to obtain the optimal sensing time for improving the throughput of the cognitive radio user (CRU) during each period, and finally the water-filling principle is applied to optimize the searching time in order to make the CRU find an idle channel within the shortest time. The simulation results show that compared with the previous algorithms, the optimal sensing period can improve the spectrum utilization of the CRU and decrease the interference to the PU significantly, the optimal sensing time can make the CRU achieve the largest throughput, and the optimal searching time can make the CRU find an idle channel with the least time. PMID:23604027

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of LTR Training versus Simulation Training and Stress Inoculation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

training must be completed during a short period of time and in a “ hyper -realistic” stressful and shocking environment. An understanding of how the...period of time and in a “ hyper -realistic” stressful and shocking environment. An understanding of how the training modality impacts the translation of...understand systems and how they change with a specific focus on identifying and evaluating the impact of feedback loops , accumulations (stocks and flows

Periodic Time-Domain Nonlocal Nonreflecting Boundary Conditions for Duct Acoustics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Willie R.; Zorumski, William E.

1996-01-01

Periodic time-domain boundary conditions are formulated for direct numerical simulation of acoustic waves in ducts without flow. Well-developed frequency-domain boundary conditions are transformed into the time domain. The formulation is presented here in one space dimension and time; however, this formulation has an advantage in that its extension to variable-area, higher dimensional, and acoustically treated ducts is rigorous and straightforward. The boundary condition simulates a nonreflecting wave field in an infinite uniform duct and is implemented by impulse-response operators that are applied at the boundary of the computational domain. These operators are generated by convolution integrals of the corresponding frequency-domain operators. The acoustic solution is obtained by advancing the Euler equations to a periodic state with the MacCormack scheme. The MacCormack scheme utilizes the boundary condition to limit the computational space and preserve the radiation boundary condition. The success of the boundary condition is attributed to the fact that it is nonreflecting to periodic acoustic waves. In addition, transient waves can pass rapidly out of the solution domain. The boundary condition is tested for a pure tone and a multitone source in a linear setting. The effects of various initial conditions are assessed. Computational solutions with the boundary condition are consistent with the known solutions for nonreflecting wave fields in an infinite uniform duct.

Predicting long-term temperature increase for time-dependent SAR levels with a single short-term temperature response.

PubMed

Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M

2016-05-01

Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and impulse-response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes' bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Games, Social Simulations, and Data--Integration for Policy Decisions: The "Sudan" Game

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landwehr, Peter; Spraragen, Marc; Ranganathan, Balki; Carley, Kathleen M.; Zyda, Michael

2013-01-01

In this article, the authors discuss the development of the "Sudan Game," an interactive model of the country in the time period leading up to the Sudanese referendum on the secession of the South. While many simulations are designed to educate about their subjects, the "Sudan Game" is intended to be a prototype for policy…

Atomistic simulation of frictional anisotropy on quasicrystal approximant surfaces

DOE PAGES

Ye, Zhijiang; Martini, Ashlie; Thiel, Patricia; ...

2016-06-23

J. Y. Park et al. [Science 309, 1354 (2005)] have reported eight times greater atomic-scale friction in the periodic than in the quasiperiodic direction on the twofold face of a decagonal Al-Ni-Co quasicrystal. Here we present results of molecular-dynamics simulations intended to elucidate mechanisms behind this giant frictional anisotropy. Simulations of a bare atomic-force-microscope tip on several model substrates and under a variety of conditions failed to reproduce experimental results. On the other hand, including the experimental passivation of the tip with chains of hexadecane thiol, we reproduce qualitatively the experimental anisotropy in friction, finding evidence for entrainment of themore » organic chains in surface furrows parallel to the periodic direction.« less

FLAME: A platform for high performance computing of complex systems, applied for three case studies

DOE PAGES

Kiran, Mariam; Bicak, Mesude; Maleki-Dizaji, Saeedeh; ...

2011-01-01

FLAME allows complex models to be automatically parallelised on High Performance Computing (HPC) grids enabling large number of agents to be simulated over short periods of time. Modellers are hindered by complexities of porting models on parallel platforms and time taken to run large simulations on a single machine, which FLAME overcomes. Three case studies from different disciplines were modelled using FLAME, and are presented along with their performance results on a grid.

A proposed mathematical model for sleep patterning.

PubMed

Lawder, R E

1984-01-01

The simple model of a ramp, intersecting a triangular waveform, yields results which conform with seven generalized observations of sleep patterning; including the progressive lengthening of 'rapid-eye-movement' (REM) sleep periods within near-constant REM/nonREM cycle periods. Predicted values of REM sleep time, and of Stage 3/4 nonREM sleep time, can be computed using the observed values of other parameters. The distributions of the actual REM and Stage 3/4 times relative to the predicted values were closer to normal than the distributions relative to simple 'best line' fits. It was found that sleep onset tends to occur at a particular moment in the individual subject's '90-min cycle' (the use of a solar time-scale masks this effect), which could account for a subject with a naturally short sleep/wake cycle synchronizing to a 24-h rhythm. A combined 'sleep control system' model offers quantitative simulation of the sleep patterning of endogenous depressives and, with a different perturbation, qualitative simulation of the symptoms of narcolepsy.

Qualitative and numerical analyses of the effects of river inflow variations on mixing diagrams in estuaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cifuentes, L.A.; Schemel, L.E.; Sharp, J.H.

1990-01-01

The effects of river inflow variations on alkalinity/salinity distributions in San Francisco Bay and nitrate/salinity distributions in Delaware Bay are described. One-dimensional, advective-dispersion equations for salinity and the dissolved constituents are solved numerically and are used to simulate mixing in the estuaries. These simulations account for time-varying river inflow, variations in estuarine cross-sectional area, and longitudinally varying dispersion coefficients. The model simulates field observations better than models that use constant hydrodynamic coefficients and uniform estuarine geometry. Furthermore, field observations and model simulations are consistent with theoretical 'predictions' that the curvature of propery-salinity distributions depends on the relation between the estuarine residence time and the period of river concentration variation. ?? 1990.

Analysis on shock wave speed of water hammer of lifting pipes for deep-sea mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Zhi-jin; Yang, Ning; Wang, Zhao

2013-04-01

Water hammer occurs whenever the fluid velocity in vertical lifting pipe systems for deep-sea mining suddenly changes. In this work, the shock wave was proven to play an important role in changing pressures and periods, and mathematical and numerical modeling technology was presented for simulated transient pressure in the abnormal pump operation. As volume concentrations were taken into account of shock wave speed, the experiment results about the pressure-time history, discharge-time history and period for the lifting pipe system showed that: as its concentrations rose up, the maximum transient pressure went down, so did its discharges; when its volume concentrations increased gradually, the period numbers of pressure decay were getting less and less, and the corresponding shock wave speed decreased. These results have highly coincided with simulation results. The conclusions are important to design lifting transporting system to prevent water hammer in order to avoid potentially devastating consequences, such as damage to components and equipment and risks to personnel.

A Numerical Study of the Effect of Periodic Nutrient Supply on Pathways of Carbon in a Coastal Upwelling Regime

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carr, Mary-Elena

1998-01-01

A size-based ecosystem model was modified to include periodic upwelling events and used to evaluate the effect of episodic nutrient supply on the standing stock, carbon uptake, and carbon flow into mesozooplankton grazing and sinking flux in a coastal upwelling regime. Two ecosystem configurations were compared: a single food chain made up of net phytoplankton and mesozooplankton (one autotroph and one heterotroph, A1H1), and three interconnected food chains plus bacteria (three autotrophs and four heterotrophs, A3H4). The carbon pathways in the A1H1 simulations were under stronger physical control than those of the A3H4 runs, where the small size classes are not affected by frequent upwelling events. In the more complex food web simulations, the microbial pathway determines the total carbon uptake and grazing rates, and regenerated nitrogen accounts for more than half of the total primary production for periods of 20 days or longer between events. By contrast, new production, export of carbon through sinking and mesozooplankton grazing are more important in the A1H1 simulations. In the A3H4 simulations, the turnover time scale of the autotroph biomass increases as the period between upwelling events increases, because of the larger contribution of slow-growing net phytoplankton. The upwelling period was characterized for three upwelling sites from the alongshore wind speed measured by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) and the corresponding model output compared with literature data. This validation exercise for three upwelling sites and a downstream embayment suggests that standing stock, carbon uptake and size fractionation were best supported by the A3H4 simulations, while the simulated sinking fluxes are not distinguishable in the two configurations.

Evaluation of NASA GISS post-CMIP5 single column model simulated clouds and precipitation using ARM Southern Great Plains observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Dong, Xiquan; Kennedy, Aaron; Xi, Baike; Li, Zhanqing

2017-03-01

The planetary boundary layer turbulence and moist convection parameterizations have been modified recently in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM; post-CMIP5, hereafter P5). In this study, single column model (SCM P5) simulated cloud fractions (CFs), cloud liquid water paths (LWPs) and precipitation were compared with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) groundbased observations made during the period 2002-08. CMIP5 SCM simulations and GCM outputs over the ARM SGP region were also used in the comparison to identify whether the causes of cloud and precipitation biases resulted from either the physical parameterization or the dynamic scheme. The comparison showed that the CMIP5 SCM has difficulties in simulating the vertical structure and seasonal variation of low-level clouds. The new scheme implemented in the turbulence parameterization led to significantly improved cloud simulations in P5. It was found that the SCM is sensitive to the relaxation time scale. When the relaxation time increased from 3 to 24 h, SCM P5-simulated CFs and LWPs showed a moderate increase (10%-20%) but precipitation increased significantly (56%), which agreed better with observations despite the less accurate atmospheric state. Annual averages among the GCM and SCM simulations were almost the same, but their respective seasonal variations were out of phase. This suggests that the same physical cloud parameterization can generate similar statistical results over a long time period, but different dynamics drive the differences in seasonal variations. This study can potentially provide guidance for the further development of the GISS model.

Personality, social support and affective states during simulated microgravity in healthy women

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolas, Michel

2009-12-01

This study investigated the time-course of stress and recovery states and their relations to social support and personality traits in healthy women during a long-term head-down tilt bed rest. Personality, social support and affective states were assessed in 16 women exposed to simulated microgravity for a 60-day duration involving three stages: a 20-day baseline control period (BDC), a 60-day head-down tilt bed rest (HDT) and a 20-day post-HDT ambulatory recovery period (R+). Participants were divided into two groups: an exercise (Exe, n = 8) and a control group (Ctl, n = 8). All the participants experienced significantly more stress during the HDT period. But exercise did not improve the impaired effects of simulated microgravity. The Exe group perceived more stress and less recovery than the Ctl group during the HDT period. Among the five major personality factors, only Neuroticism was related to both social and affective variables. Neuroticism was positively associated with stress and negatively associated with recovery and social support (S-SSQ). Practical implications in psychological countermeasures for better dealing with the key human factor in spaceflights are discussed.

Geyser periodicity and the response of geysers to deformation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ingebritsen, S.E.; Rojstaczer, S.A.

1996-01-01

Numerical simulations of multiphase fluid and heat transport through a porous medium define combinations of rock properties and boundary conditions which lead to geyser-like periodic discharge. Within the rather narrow range of conditions that allow geyser-like behavior, eruption frequency and discharge are highly sensitive to the intrinsic permeabilities of the geyser conduit and the surrounding rock matrix, to the relative permeability functions assumed, and to pressure gradients in the matrix. In theory, heats pipes (concomitant upward flow of steam and downward flow of liquid) can exist under similar conditions, but our simulations suggest that the periodic solution is more stable. Simulated time series of geyser discharge are chaotic, but integrated quantities such as eruption frequency and mass discharge per eruption are free of chaos. These results may explain the observed sensitivity of natural geysers to small strains such as those caused by remote earthquakes, if ground motion is sufficient to induce permeability changes. Changes in geyser behavior caused by minor preseismic deformation, periodic surface loading, and Earth tides are more difficult to explain in the context of our current model. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

The modeling, simulation, and control of transport phenomena in a thermally destabilizing Bridgman crystal growth system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonda, Paul Julio

This thesis presents a comprehensive examination of the modeling, simulation, and control of axisymmetric flows occurring in a vertical Bridgman crystal growth system with the melt underlying the crystal. The significant complexity and duration of the manufacturing process make experimental optimization a prohibitive task. Numerical simulation has emerged as a powerful tool in understanding the processing issues still prevalent in industry. A first-principles model is developed to better understand the transport phenomena within a representative vertical Bridgman system. The set of conservation equations for momentum, energy, and species concentration are discretized using the Galerkin finite element method and simulated using accurate time-marching schemes. Simulation results detail the occurrence of fascinating nonlinear dynamics, in the form of stable, time-varying behavior for sufficiently large melt regimes and multiple steady flow states. This discovery of time-periodic flows for high intensity flows is qualitatively consistent with experimental observations. Transient simulations demonstrate that process operating conditions have a marked effect on the hydrodynamic behavior within the melt, which consequently affects the dopant concentration profile within the crystal. The existence of nonlinear dynamical behavior within this system motivates the need for feedback control algorithms which can provide superior crystal quality. This work studies the feasibility of using crucible rotation to control flows in the vertical Bridgman system. Simulations show that crucible rotation acts to suppress the axisymmetric flows. However, for the case when the melt lies below the crystal, crucible rotation also acts to accelerate the onset of time-periodic behavior. This result is attributed to coupling between the centrifugal force and the intense, buoyancy-driven flows. Proportional, proportional-integral, and input-output linearizing controllers are applied to vertical Bridgman systems in stabilizing (crystal below the melt) and destabilizing (melt below the crystal) configurations. The spatially-averaged, axisymmetric kinetic energy is the controlled output. The flows are controlled via rotation of the crucible containing the molten material. Simulation results show that feedback controllers using crucible rotation effectively attenuate flow oscillations in a stabilizing configuration with time-varying disturbance. Crucible rotation is not an optimal choice for suppressing inherent flow oscillations in the destabilizing configuration.

Alternative modeling methods for plasma-based Rf ion sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veitzer, Seth A., E-mail: veitzer@txcorp.com; Kundrapu, Madhusudhan, E-mail: madhusnk@txcorp.com; Stoltz, Peter H., E-mail: phstoltz@txcorp.com

Rf-driven ion sources for accelerators and many industrial applications benefit from detailed numerical modeling and simulation of plasma characteristics. For instance, modeling of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) internal antenna H{sup −} source has indicated that a large plasma velocity is induced near bends in the antenna where structural failures are often observed. This could lead to improved designs and ion source performance based on simulation and modeling. However, there are significant separations of time and spatial scales inherent to Rf-driven plasma ion sources, which makes it difficult to model ion sources with explicit, kinetic Particle-In-Cell (PIC) simulation codes. Inmore » particular, if both electron and ion motions are to be explicitly modeled, then the simulation time step must be very small, and total simulation times must be large enough to capture the evolution of the plasma ions, as well as extending over many Rf periods. Additional physics processes such as plasma chemistry and surface effects such as secondary electron emission increase the computational requirements in such a way that even fully parallel explicit PIC models cannot be used. One alternative method is to develop fluid-based codes coupled with electromagnetics in order to model ion sources. Time-domain fluid models can simulate plasma evolution, plasma chemistry, and surface physics models with reasonable computational resources by not explicitly resolving electron motions, which thereby leads to an increase in the time step. This is achieved by solving fluid motions coupled with electromagnetics using reduced-physics models, such as single-temperature magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), extended, gas dynamic, and Hall MHD, and two-fluid MHD models. We show recent results on modeling the internal antenna H{sup −} ion source for the SNS at Oak Ridge National Laboratory using the fluid plasma modeling code USim. We compare demonstrate plasma temperature equilibration in two-temperature MHD models for the SNS source and present simulation results demonstrating plasma evolution over many Rf periods for different plasma temperatures. We perform the calculations in parallel, on unstructured meshes, using finite-volume solvers in order to obtain results in reasonable time.« less

Alternative modeling methods for plasma-based Rf ion sources.

PubMed

Veitzer, Seth A; Kundrapu, Madhusudhan; Stoltz, Peter H; Beckwith, Kristian R C

2016-02-01

Rf-driven ion sources for accelerators and many industrial applications benefit from detailed numerical modeling and simulation of plasma characteristics. For instance, modeling of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) internal antenna H(-) source has indicated that a large plasma velocity is induced near bends in the antenna where structural failures are often observed. This could lead to improved designs and ion source performance based on simulation and modeling. However, there are significant separations of time and spatial scales inherent to Rf-driven plasma ion sources, which makes it difficult to model ion sources with explicit, kinetic Particle-In-Cell (PIC) simulation codes. In particular, if both electron and ion motions are to be explicitly modeled, then the simulation time step must be very small, and total simulation times must be large enough to capture the evolution of the plasma ions, as well as extending over many Rf periods. Additional physics processes such as plasma chemistry and surface effects such as secondary electron emission increase the computational requirements in such a way that even fully parallel explicit PIC models cannot be used. One alternative method is to develop fluid-based codes coupled with electromagnetics in order to model ion sources. Time-domain fluid models can simulate plasma evolution, plasma chemistry, and surface physics models with reasonable computational resources by not explicitly resolving electron motions, which thereby leads to an increase in the time step. This is achieved by solving fluid motions coupled with electromagnetics using reduced-physics models, such as single-temperature magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), extended, gas dynamic, and Hall MHD, and two-fluid MHD models. We show recent results on modeling the internal antenna H(-) ion source for the SNS at Oak Ridge National Laboratory using the fluid plasma modeling code USim. We compare demonstrate plasma temperature equilibration in two-temperature MHD models for the SNS source and present simulation results demonstrating plasma evolution over many Rf periods for different plasma temperatures. We perform the calculations in parallel, on unstructured meshes, using finite-volume solvers in order to obtain results in reasonable time.

Development of high resolution simulations of the atmospheric environment using the MASS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, Michael L.; Zack, John W.; Karyampudi, V. Mohan

1989-01-01

Numerical simulations were performed with a very high resolution (7.25 km) version of the MASS model (Version 4.0) in an effort to diagnose the vertical wind shear and static stability structure during the Shuttle Challenger disaster which occurred on 28 January 1986. These meso-beta scale simulations reveal that the strongest vertical wind shears were concentrated in the 200 to 150 mb layer at 1630 GMT, i.e., at about the time of the disaster. These simulated vertical shears were the result of two primary dynamical processes. The juxtaposition of both of these processes produced a shallow (30 mb deep) region of strong vertical wind shear, and hence, low Richardson number values during the launch time period. Comparisons with the Cape Canaveral (XMR) rawinsonde indicates that the high resolution MASS 4.0 simulation more closely emulated nature than did previous simulations of the same event with the GMASS model.

Simulating transient dynamics of the time-dependent time fractional Fokker-Planck systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Yan-Mei

2016-09-01

For a physically realistic type of time-dependent time fractional Fokker-Planck (FP) equation, derived as the continuous limit of the continuous time random walk with time-modulated Boltzmann jumping weight, a semi-analytic iteration scheme based on the truncated (generalized) Fourier series is presented to simulate the resultant transient dynamics when the external time modulation is a piece-wise constant signal. At first, the iteration scheme is demonstrated with a simple time-dependent time fractional FP equation on finite interval with two absorbing boundaries, and then it is generalized to the more general time-dependent Smoluchowski-type time fractional Fokker-Planck equation. The numerical examples verify the efficiency and accuracy of the iteration method, and some novel dynamical phenomena including polarized motion orientations and periodic response death are discussed.

A probabilistic method for constructing wave time-series at inshore locations using model scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Thompson, David M.

2014-01-01

Continuous time-series of wave characteristics (height, period, and direction) are constructed using a base set of model scenarios and simple probabilistic methods. This approach utilizes an archive of computationally intensive, highly spatially resolved numerical wave model output to develop time-series of historical or future wave conditions without performing additional, continuous numerical simulations. The archive of model output contains wave simulations from a set of model scenarios derived from an offshore wave climatology. Time-series of wave height, period, direction, and associated uncertainties are constructed at locations included in the numerical model domain. The confidence limits are derived using statistical variability of oceanographic parameters contained in the wave model scenarios. The method was applied to a region in the northern Gulf of Mexico and assessed using wave observations at 12 m and 30 m water depths. Prediction skill for significant wave height is 0.58 and 0.67 at the 12 m and 30 m locations, respectively, with similar performance for wave period and direction. The skill of this simplified, probabilistic time-series construction method is comparable to existing large-scale, high-fidelity operational wave models but provides higher spatial resolution output at low computational expense. The constructed time-series can be developed to support a variety of applications including climate studies and other situations where a comprehensive survey of wave impacts on the coastal area is of interest.

A closed-loop time-alignment system for baseband combining

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feria, Y.

1994-01-01

In baseband combining, the key element is the time alignment of the baseband signals. This article describes a closed-loop time-alignment system that estimates and adjusts the relative delay between two baseband signals received from two different antennas for the signals to be coherently combined. This system automatically determines which signal is advanced and delays it accordingly with a resolution of a sample period. The performance of the loop is analyzed, and the analysis is verified through simulation. The variance of the delay estimates and the signal-to-noise ratio degradation in the simulations agree with the theoretical calculations.

Free energy simulations with the AMOEBA polarizable force field and metadynamics on GPU platform.

PubMed

Peng, Xiangda; Zhang, Yuebin; Chu, Huiying; Li, Guohui

2016-03-05

The free energy calculation library PLUMED has been incorporated into the OpenMM simulation toolkit, with the purpose to perform enhanced sampling MD simulations using the AMOEBA polarizable force field on GPU platform. Two examples, (I) the free energy profile of water pair separation (II) alanine dipeptide dihedral angle free energy surface in explicit solvent, are provided here to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of our implementation. The converged free energy profiles could be obtained within an affordable MD simulation time when the AMOEBA polarizable force field is employed. Moreover, the free energy surfaces estimated using the AMOEBA polarizable force field are in agreement with those calculated from experimental data and ab initio methods. Hence, the implementation in this work is reliable and would be utilized to study more complicated biological phenomena in both an accurate and efficient way. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Optical and infrared properties of glancing angle-deposited nanostructured tungsten films.

PubMed

Ungaro, Craig; Shah, Ankit; Kravchenko, Ivan; Hensley, Dale K; Gray, Stephen K; Gupta, Mool C

2015-02-15

Nanotextured tungsten thin films were obtained on a stainless steel (SS) substrate using the glancing-angle-deposition (GLAD) method. It was found that the optical absorption and thermal emittance of the SS substrate can be controlled by varying the parameters used during deposition. Finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) simulations were used to predict the optical absorption and infrared (IR) reflectance spectra of the fabricated samples, and good agreement was found between simulated and measured data. FDTD simulations were also used to predict the effect of changes in the height and periodicity of the nanotextures. These simulations show that good control over the absorption can be achieved by altering the height and periodicity of the nanostructure. These nanostructures were shown to be temperature stable up to 500°C with the addition of a protective HfO2 layer. Applications for this structure are explored, including a promising application for solar thermal energy systems.

Evaluating the impact of chemical boundary conditions on near surface ozone in regional climate-air quality simulations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akritidis, D.; Zanis, P.; Katragkou, E.; Schultz, M. G.; Tegoulias, I.; Poupkou, A.; Markakis, K.; Pytharoulis, I.; Karacostas, Th.

2013-12-01

A modeling system based on the air quality model CAMx driven off-line by the regional climate model RegCM3 is used for assessing the impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) on near surface ozone over Europe for the period 1996-2000. The RegCM3 and CAMx simulations were performed on a 50 km × 50 km grid over Europe with RegCM3 driven by the NCEP meteorological reanalysis fields and CAMx with chemical LBCs from ECHAM5/MOZART global model. The recent past period (1996-2000) was simulated in three experiments. The first simulation was forced using time and space invariant LBCs, the second was based on ECHAM5/MOZART chemical LBCs fixed for the year 1996 and the third was based on ECHAM5/MOZART chemical LBCs with interannual variability. Anthropogenic and biogenic emissions were kept identical for the three sensitivity runs.

Incremental update of electrostatic interactions in adaptively restrained particle simulations.

PubMed

Edorh, Semeho Prince A; Redon, Stéphane

2018-04-06

The computation of long-range potentials is one of the demanding tasks in Molecular Dynamics. During the last decades, an inventive panoply of methods was developed to reduce the CPU time of this task. In this work, we propose a fast method dedicated to the computation of the electrostatic potential in adaptively restrained systems. We exploit the fact that, in such systems, only some particles are allowed to move at each timestep. We developed an incremental algorithm derived from a multigrid-based alternative to traditional Fourier-based methods. Our algorithm was implemented inside LAMMPS, a popular molecular dynamics simulation package. We evaluated the method on different systems. We showed that the new algorithm's computational complexity scales with the number of active particles in the simulated system, and is able to outperform the well-established Particle Particle Particle Mesh (P3M) for adaptively restrained simulations. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modelling of mineral dust for interglacial and glacial climate conditions with a focus on Antarctica

DOE PAGES

Sudarchikova, Natalia; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Timmreck, C.; ...

2015-05-19

The mineral dust cycle responds to climate variations and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere and modifying biogeochemistry. Polar ice cores provide unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles transported over long distances. These cores are a palaeoclimate proxy archive of climate variability thousands of years ago. The current study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles with a global aerosol–climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The results are used to explain the dust deposition changes in Antarctica in terms of quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission,more » atmospheric transport and precipitation, which will help to interpret palaeodata from Antarctic ice cores. The investigated periods include four interglacial time slices: the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP; hereafter referred to as \\"6 kyr\\"), last glacial inception (115 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"115 kyr\\") and Eemian (126 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"126 kyr\\"). One glacial time interval, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"21 kyr\\"), was simulated as well to be a reference test for the model. Results suggest an increase in mineral dust deposition globally, and in Antarctica, in the past interglacial periods relative to the pre-industrial CTRL simulation. Approximately two-thirds of the increase in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is attributed to enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. Slightly strengthened transport efficiency causes the remaining one-third of the increase in dust deposition. The moderate change in dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. LGM dust deposition in Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times higher Southern Hemisphere dust emissions, 2 times stronger atmospheric transport towards Antarctica, and 30% weaker precipitation over the Southern Ocean. The model is able to reproduce the order of magnitude of dust deposition globally and in Antarctica for the pre-industrial and LGM climates.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sudarchikova, Natalia; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Timmreck, C.

The mineral dust cycle responds to climate variations and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere and modifying biogeochemistry. Polar ice cores provide unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles transported over long distances. These cores are a palaeoclimate proxy archive of climate variability thousands of years ago. The current study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles with a global aerosol–climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The results are used to explain the dust deposition changes in Antarctica in terms of quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission,more » atmospheric transport and precipitation, which will help to interpret palaeodata from Antarctic ice cores. The investigated periods include four interglacial time slices: the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP; hereafter referred to as \\"6 kyr\\"), last glacial inception (115 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"115 kyr\\") and Eemian (126 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"126 kyr\\"). One glacial time interval, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"21 kyr\\"), was simulated as well to be a reference test for the model. Results suggest an increase in mineral dust deposition globally, and in Antarctica, in the past interglacial periods relative to the pre-industrial CTRL simulation. Approximately two-thirds of the increase in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is attributed to enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. Slightly strengthened transport efficiency causes the remaining one-third of the increase in dust deposition. The moderate change in dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. LGM dust deposition in Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times higher Southern Hemisphere dust emissions, 2 times stronger atmospheric transport towards Antarctica, and 30% weaker precipitation over the Southern Ocean. The model is able to reproduce the order of magnitude of dust deposition globally and in Antarctica for the pre-industrial and LGM climates.« less

Simulation of two-dimensional gratings for SERS-active substrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Wenlong; Wu, Jianhong

2016-11-01

Raman spectroscopy provides intrinsic vibrational and rotational mode of molecules in materials, which is widely used in chemical, medical and environmental domains. As known, the magnitude of surface enhanced Raman scattering can be amplified several orders. Nowadays, common Raman scattering has been gradually replaced by surface enhanced Raman scattering in low concentration detection domain. Generally speaking, the signal of surface enhanced Raman scattering on periodic nanostructures is more reliable and reproducible than on irregular nanostructures. In this paper, two-dimensional gratings coated by noble metal are used as SERS-active substrate. The surface plasmon resonance can be obtained by tuning the period of two-dimensional grating when the excitation laser interacts on the grating. The local electric field distribution is simulated by finite-difference-time-domain (FDTD). The wavelength of 632.8nm and 785nm are usually assembled on commercial Raman spectrometer. The optimization procedure of two-dimensional grating period is simulated by FDTD for above two wavelengths. The relation between the grating period and surface plasmon resonance is obtained in theory. The parameters such as depth of photoresist and thickness of coated metal are systematic discussed. The simulation results will greatly guide our post manufacture, which can be served for the commercial Raman spectrometer in SERS detection.

Evaluation of global climate model on performances of precipitation simulation and prediction in the Huaihe River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yenan; Zhong, Ping-an; Xu, Bin; Zhu, Feilin; Fu, Jisi

2017-06-01

Using climate models with high performance to predict the future climate changes can increase the reliability of results. In this paper, six kinds of global climate models that selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Path (RCP) 4.5 scenarios were compared to the measured data during baseline period (1960-2000) and evaluate the simulation performance on precipitation. Since the results of single climate models are often biased and highly uncertain, we examine the back propagation (BP) neural network and arithmetic mean method in assembling the precipitation of multi models. The delta method was used to calibrate the result of single model and multimodel ensembles by arithmetic mean method (MME-AM) during the validation period (2001-2010) and the predicting period (2011-2100). We then use the single models and multimodel ensembles to predict the future precipitation process and spatial distribution. The result shows that BNU-ESM model has the highest simulation effect among all the single models. The multimodel assembled by BP neural network (MME-BP) has a good simulation performance on the annual average precipitation process and the deterministic coefficient during the validation period is 0.814. The simulation capability on spatial distribution of precipitation is: calibrated MME-AM > MME-BP > calibrated BNU-ESM. The future precipitation predicted by all models tends to increase as the time period increases. The order of average increase amplitude of each season is: winter > spring > summer > autumn. These findings can provide useful information for decision makers to make climate-related disaster mitigation plans.

Practical considerations for estimating clinical trial accrual periods: application to a multi-center effectiveness study

PubMed Central

Carter, Rickey E; Sonne, Susan C; Brady, Kathleen T

2005-01-01

Background Adequate participant recruitment is vital to the conduct of a clinical trial. Projected recruitment rates are often over-estimated, and the time to recruit the target population (accrual period) is often under-estimated. Methods This report illustrates three approaches to estimating the accrual period and applies the methods to a multi-center, randomized, placebo controlled trial undergoing development. Results Incorporating known sources of accrual variation can yield a more justified estimate of the accrual period. Simulation studies can be incorporated into a clinical trial's planning phase to provide estimates for key accrual summaries including the mean and standard deviation of the accrual period. Conclusion The accrual period of a clinical trial should be carefully considered, and the allocation of sufficient time for participant recruitment is a fundamental aspect of planning a clinical trial. PMID:15796782

Electric Power Distribution System Model Simplification Using Segment Substitution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reiman, Andrew P.; McDermott, Thomas E.; Akcakaya, Murat

Quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulation is used to simulate the behavior of distribution systems over long periods of time (typically hours to years). The technique involves repeatedly solving the load-flow problem for a distribution system model and is useful for distributed energy resource (DER) planning. When a QSTS simulation has a small time step and a long duration, the computational burden of the simulation can be a barrier to integration into utility workflows. One way to relieve the computational burden is to simplify the system model. The segment substitution method of simplifying distribution system models introduced in this paper offers modelmore » bus reduction of up to 98% with a simplification error as low as 0.2% (0.002 pu voltage). In contrast to existing methods of distribution system model simplification, which rely on topological inspection and linearization, the segment substitution method uses black-box segment data and an assumed simplified topology.« less

Comparison of three large-eddy simulations of shock-induced turbulent separation bubbles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touber, Emile; Sandham, Neil D.

2009-12-01

Three different large-eddy simulation investigations of the interaction between an impinging oblique shock and a supersonic turbulent boundary layer are presented. All simulations made use of the same inflow technique, specifically aimed at avoiding possible low-frequency interferences with the shock/boundary-layer interaction system. All simulations were run on relatively wide computational domains and integrated over times greater than twenty five times the period of the most commonly reported low-frequency shock-oscillation, making comparisons at both time-averaged and low-frequency-dynamic levels possible. The results confirm previous experimental results which suggested a simple linear relation between the interaction length and the oblique-shock strength if scaled using the boundary-layer thickness and wall-shear stress. All the tested cases show evidences of significant low-frequency shock motions. At the wall, energetic low-frequency pressure fluctuations are observed, mainly in the initial part of interaction.

Brownian dynamics simulations on a hypersphere in 4-space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissfolk, Jarl; Ekholm, Tobias; Elvingson, Christer

2003-10-01

We describe an algorithm for performing Brownian dynamics simulations of particles diffusing on S3, a hypersphere in four dimensions. The system is chosen due to recent interest in doing computer simulations in a closed space where periodic boundary conditions can be avoided. We specifically address the question how to generate a random walk on the 3-sphere, starting from the solution of the corresponding diffusion equation, and we also discuss an efficient implementation based on controlled approximations. Since S3 is a closed manifold (space), the average square displacement during a random walk is no longer proportional to the elapsed time, as in R3. Instead, its time rate of change is continuously decreasing, and approaches zero as time becomes large. We show, however, that the effective diffusion coefficient can still be obtained from the time dependence of the square displacement.

“Dynamic evaluation of the CMAQv5.0 modeling system: Assessing the model’s ability to simulate ozone changes due to NOx emission reductions”

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the CMAQv5.0 modeling system during the NOx SIP Call time period indicates that the model underestimates the observed ozone decrease in eastern U.S. Utilizing novel cross simulations we are able to separately quantify the impact on ozone predictions stemmin...

Dynamical Interpolation of Mesoscale Flows in the TOPEX/Poseidon Diamond Surrounding the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGillicuddy, Dennis J., Jr.; Kosnyrev, V. K.

2001-01-01

An open boundary ocean model is configured in a domain bounded by the four TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) ground tracks surrounding the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) site. This implementation facilitates prescription of model boundary conditions directly from altimetric measurements (both TIP and ERS-2). The expected error characteristics for a domain of this size with periodically updated boundary conditions are established with idealized numerical experiments using simulated data. A hindcast simulation is then constructed using actual altimetric observations during the period October 1992 through September 1998. Quantitative evaluation of the simulation suggests significant skill. The correlation coefficient between predicted sea level anomaly and ERS observations in the model interior is 0.89; that for predicted versus observed dynamic height anomaly based on hydrography at the BATS site is 0.73. Comparison with the idealized experiments suggests that the main source of error in the hindcast is temporal undersampling of the boundary conditions. The hindcast simulation described herein provides a basis for retrospective analysis of BATS observations in the context of the mesoscale eddy field.

Dynamical Interpolation of Mesoscale Flows in the TOPEX/ Poseidon Diamond Surrounding the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGillicuddy, D. J.; Kosnyrev, V. K.

2001-01-01

An open boundary ocean model is configured in a domain bounded by the four TOPEX/Poseidon (TIP) ground tracks surrounding the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site. This implementation facilitates prescription of model boundary conditions directly from altimetric measurements (both TIP and ERS-2). The expected error characteristics for a domain of this size with periodically updated boundary conditions are established with idealized numerical experiments using simulated data. A hindcast simulation is then constructed using actual altimetric observations during the period October 1992 through September 1998. Quantitative evaluation of the simulation suggests significant skill. The correlation coefficient between predicted sea level anomaly and ERS observations in the model interior is 0.89; that for predicted versus observed dynamic height anomaly based on hydrography at the BATS site is 0.73. Comparison with the idealized experiments suggests that the main source of error in the hindcast is temporal undersampling of the boundary conditions. The hindcast simulation described herein provides a basis for retrospective analysis of BATS observations in the context of the mesoscale eddy field.

Modeling laser-induced periodic surface structures: Finite-difference time-domain feedback simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skolski, J. Z. P., E-mail: j.z.p.skolski@utwente.nl; Vincenc Obona, J.; Römer, G. R. B. E.

2014-03-14

A model predicting the formation of laser-induced periodic surface structures (LIPSSs) is presented. That is, the finite-difference time domain method is used to study the interaction of electromagnetic fields with rough surfaces. In this approach, the rough surface is modified by “ablation after each laser pulse,” according to the absorbed energy profile, in order to account for inter-pulse feedback mechanisms. LIPSSs with a periodicity significantly smaller than the laser wavelength are found to “grow” either parallel or orthogonal to the laser polarization. The change in orientation and periodicity follow from the model. LIPSSs with a periodicity larger than the wavelengthmore » of the laser radiation and complex superimposed LIPSS patterns are also predicted by the model.« less

Substrate and environmental controls on microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon: a framework for Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Xiaofeng; Schimel, Joshua; Thornton, Peter E

2014-01-01

Microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon is one of the fundamental processes of global carbon cycling and it determines the magnitude of microbial biomass in soils. Mechanistic understanding of microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon and its controls is important for to improve Earth system models ability to simulate carbon-climate feedbacks. Although microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon is broadly considered to be an important parameter, it really comprises two separate physiological processes: one-time assimilation efficiency and time-dependent microbial maintenance energy. Representing of these two mechanisms is crucial to more accurately simulate carbon cycling in soils. In this study, amore » simple modeling framework was developed to evaluate the substrate and environmental controls on microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon using a new term: microbial annual active period (the length of microbes remaining active in one year). Substrate quality has a positive effect on microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon: higher substrate quality (lower C:N ratio) leads to higher ratio of microbial carbon to soil organic carbon and vice versa. Increases in microbial annual active period from zero stimulate microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon; however, when microbial annual active period is longer than an optimal threshold, increasing this period decreases microbial biomass. The simulated ratios of soil microbial biomass to soil organic carbon are reasonably consistent with a recently compiled global dataset at the biome-level. The modeling framework of microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon and its controls developed in this study offers an applicable ways to incorporate microbial contributions to the carbon cycling into Earth system models for simulating carbon-climate feedbacks and to explain global patterns of microbial biomass.« less

Minimum MD simulation length required to achieve reliable results in free energy perturbation calculations: case study of relative binding free energies of fructose-1,6-bisphosphatase inhibitors.

PubMed

Rathore, R S; Aparoy, P; Reddanna, P; Kondapi, A K; Reddy, M Rami

2011-07-30

In an attempt to establish the criteria for the length of simulation to achieve the desired convergence of free energy calculations, two studies were carried out on chosen complexes of FBPase-AMP mimics. Calculations were performed for varied length of simulations and for different starting configurations using both conventional- and QM/MM-FEP methods. The results demonstrate that for small perturbations, 1248 ps simulation time could be regarded a reasonable yardstick to achieve convergence of the results. As the simulation time is extended, the errors associated with free energy calculations also gradually tapers off. Moreover, when starting the simulation from different initial configurations of the systems, the results are not changed significantly, when performed for 1248 ps. This study carried on FBPase-AMP mimics corroborates well with our previous successful demonstration of requirement of simulation time for solvation studies, both by conventional and ab initio FEP. The establishment of aforementioned criteria of simulation length serves a useful benchmark in drug design efforts using FEP methodologies, to draw a meaningful and unequivocal conclusion. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Premonitory slip and tidal triggering of earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lockner, D.A.; Beeler, N.M.

1999-01-01

We have conducted a series of laboratory simulations of earthquakes using granite cylinders containing precut bare fault surfaces at 50 MPa confining pressure. Axial shortening rates between 10-4 and 10-6 mm/s were imposed to simulate tectonic loading. Average loading rate was then modulated by the addition of a small-amplitude sine wave to simulate periodic loading due to Earth tides or other sources. The period of the modulating signal ranged from 10 to 10,000 s. For each combination of amplitude and period of the modulating signal, multiple stick-slip events were recorded to determine the degree of correlation between the timing of simulated earthquakes and the imposed periodic loading function. Over the range of parameters studied, the degree of correlation of earthquakes was most sensitive to the amplitude of the periodic loading, with weaker dependence on the period of oscillations and the average loading rate. Accelerating premonitory slip was observed in these experiments and is a controlling factor in determining the conditions under which correlated events occur. In fact, some form of delayed failure is necessary to produce the observed correlations between simulated earthquake timing and characteristics of the periodic loading function. The transition from strongly correlated to weakly correlated model earthquake populations occurred when the amplitude of the periodic loading was approximately 0.05 to 0.1 MPa shear stress (0.03 to 0.06 MPa Coulomb failure function). Lower-amplitude oscillations produced progressively lower correlation levels. Correlations between static stress increases and earthquake aftershocks are found to degrade at similar stress levels. Typical stress variations due to Earth tides are only 0.001 to 0.004 MPa, so that the lack of correlation between Earth tides and earthquakes is also consistent with our findings. A simple extrapolation of our results suggests that approximately 1% of midcrustal earthquakes should be correlated with Earth tides. Triggered seismicity has been reported resulting from the passage of surface waves excited by the Landers earthquake. These transient waves had measured amplitudes in excess of 0.1 MPa at frequencies of 0.05 to 0.2 Hz in regions of notable seismicity increase. Similar stress oscillations in our laboratory experiments produced strongly correlated stick-slip events. We suggest that seemingly inconsistent natural observations of triggered seismicity and absence of tidal triggering indicate that failure is amplitude and frequency dependent. This is the expected result if, as in our laboratory experiments, the rheology of the Earth's crust permits delayed failure.

Trends of 'urolithiasis: interventions, simulation, and laser technology' over the last 16 years (2000-2015) as published in the literature (PubMed): a systematic review from European section of Uro-technology (ESUT).

PubMed

Pietropaolo, Amelia; Proietti, Silvia; Geraghty, Rob; Skolarikos, Andreas; Papatsoris, Athanasios; Liatsikos, Evangelos; Somani, Bhaskar K

2017-11-01

To look at the bibliometric publication trends on 'Urolithiasis' and aspects of treatment and training associated with it over a period of 16 years from 2000 to 2015. To this end, we conducted this study to look at the publication trends associated with urolithiasis, including the use of simulation, laser technology, and all types of interventions for it. We performed a systematic review of the literature using PubMed over the last 16 years, from January 2000 to December 2015 for all published papers on 'Urolithiasis'. While there were no language restrictions, English language articles and all non-English language papers with published English abstracts were also included. Case reports, animal and laboratory studies, and those studies that did not have a published abstract were excluded from our analysis. We also analyzed the data in two time periods, period-1 (2000-2007) and period-2 (2008-2015). During the last 16 years, a total of 5343 papers were published on 'Urolithiasis', including 4787 in English language and 556 in non-English language. This included papers on URS (n = 1200), PCNL (n = 1715), SWL (n = 887), open stone surgery (n = 87), laparoscopic stone surgery (n = 209), pyelolithotomy (n = 35), simulation in Endourology (n = 82), and use of laser for stone surgery (n = 406). When comparing the two time periods, during period 2, the change was +171% (p = 0.007), +279% (p < 0.001), and -17% (p = 0.2) for URS, PCNL, and SWL, respectively. While there was a rise in laparoscopic surgery (+116%), it decreased for open stone surgery (-11%) and pyelolithotomy (-47%). A total of 82 papers have been published on simulation for stone surgery including 48 papers for URS (67% rise in period-2, p = 0.007), and 34 papers for PCNL (480% rise in period-2, p < 0.001). A rising trend for the use of laser was also seen in period 2 (increase of 126%, p < 0.02, from 124 papers to 281 papers). Published papers on intervention for Urolithiasis have risen over the last 16 years. While there has been a steep rise of URS and minimally invasive PCNL techniques, SWL and open surgery have shown a slight decline over this period. A similar increase has also been seen for the use of simulation and lasers in Endourology.

Heating, Hydrodynamics, and Radiation From a Laser Heated Non-LTE High-Z Target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, William; Foord, M. E.; Schneider, M. B.; Barrios, M. A.; Brown, G. V.; Heeter, R. F.; Jarrott, L. C.; Liedahl, D. A.; Marley, E. V.; Mauche, C. W.; Widmann, K.

2016-10-01

We present 2D R-z simulations that model the hydrodynamics and x-ray output of a laser heated, tamped foil, using the rad-hydro code LASNEX. The foil consists of a thin (2400 A) cylindrical disk of iron/vanadium/gold that is embedded in a thicker Be tamper. The simulations utilize a non-LTE detailed configuration (DCA) model, which generates the emission spectra. Simulated pinhole images are compared with data, finding qualitative agreement with the time-history of the face-on emission profiles, and exhibiting an interesting reduction in emission size over a few ns time period. Furthermore, we find that the simulations recover similar burn through times in both the target and Be tamper as measured by a time-dependent filtered x-ray detector (DANTE). Additional results and characterization of the experimental plasma will be presented. This work performed under the auspices of U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-Century Perspective from Paleoclimatic Model-Data Comparisons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Griffin, Daniel; Cook, Benjamin I.

2015-01-01

The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25 deg W-107.75 deg W, 30 deg N-35.25 deg N-NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.

Forecasting production in Liquid Rich Shale plays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikfarman, Hanieh

Production from Liquid Rich Shale (LRS) reservoirs is taking center stage in the exploration and production of unconventional reservoirs. Production from the low and ultra-low permeability LRS plays is possible only through multi-fractured horizontal wells (MFHW's). There is no existing workflow that is applicable to forecasting multi-phase production from MFHW's in LRS plays. This project presents a practical and rigorous workflow for forecasting multiphase production from MFHW's in LRS reservoirs. There has been much effort in developing workflows and methodology for forecasting in tight/shale plays in recent years. The existing workflows, however, are applicable only to single phase flow, and are primarily used in shale gas plays. These methodologies do not apply to the multi-phase flow that is inevitable in LRS plays. To account for complexities of multiphase flow in MFHW's the only available technique is dynamic modeling in compositional numerical simulators. These are time consuming and not practical when it comes to forecasting production and estimating reserves for a large number of producers. A workflow was developed, and validated by compositional numerical simulation. The workflow honors physics of flow, and is sufficiently accurate while practical so that an analyst can readily apply it to forecast production and estimate reserves in a large number of producers in a short period of time. To simplify the complex multiphase flow in MFHW, the workflow divides production periods into an initial period where large production and pressure declines are expected, and the subsequent period where production decline may converge into a common trend for a number of producers across an area of interest in the field. Initial period assumes the production is dominated by single-phase flow of oil and uses the tri-linear flow model of Erdal Ozkan to estimate the production history. Commercial software readily available can simulate flow and forecast production in this period. In the subsequent Period, dimensionless rate and dimensionless time functions are introduced that help identify transition from initial period into subsequent period. The production trends in terms of the dimensionless parameters converge for a range of rock permeability and stimulation intensity. This helps forecast production beyond transition to the end of life of well. This workflow is applicable to single fluid system.

Modelling approaches: the case of schizophrenia.

PubMed

Heeg, Bart M S; Damen, Joep; Buskens, Erik; Caleo, Sue; de Charro, Frank; van Hout, Ben A

2008-01-01

Schizophrenia is a chronic disease characterized by periods of relative stability interrupted by acute episodes (or relapses). The course of the disease may vary considerably between patients. Patient histories show considerable inter- and even intra-individual variability. We provide a critical assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of three modelling techniques that have been used in schizophrenia: decision trees, (cohort and micro-simulation) Markov models and discrete event simulation models. These modelling techniques are compared in terms of building time, data requirements, medico-scientific experience, simulation time, clinical representation, and their ability to deal with patient heterogeneity, the timing of events, prior events, patient interaction, interaction between co-variates and variability (first-order uncertainty). We note that, depending on the research question, the optimal modelling approach should be selected based on the expected differences between the comparators, the number of co-variates, the number of patient subgroups, the interactions between co-variates, and simulation time. Finally, it is argued that in case micro-simulation is required for the cost-effectiveness analysis of schizophrenia treatments, a discrete event simulation model is best suited to accurately capture all of the relevant interdependencies in this chronic, highly heterogeneous disease with limited long-term follow-up data.

Simulating the formation of carbonaceous aerosol in a European Megacity (Paris) during the MEGAPOLI summer and winter campaigns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fountoukis, Christos; Megaritis, Athanasios G.; Skyllakou, Ksakousti; Charalampidis, Panagiotis E.; Denier van der Gon, Hugo A. C.; Crippa, Monica; Prévôt, André S. H.; Fachinger, Friederike; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Pilinis, Christodoulos; Pandis, Spyros N.

2016-03-01

We use a three-dimensional regional chemical transport model (PMCAMx) with high grid resolution and high-resolution emissions (4 × 4 km2) over the Paris greater area to simulate the formation of carbonaceous aerosol during a summer (July 2009) and a winter (January/February 2010) period as part of the MEGAPOLI (megacities: emissions, urban, regional, and global atmospheric pollution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation) campaigns. Model predictions of carbonaceous aerosol are compared against Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer and black carbon (BC) high time resolution measurements from three ground sites. PMCAMx predicts BC concentrations reasonably well reproducing the majority (70 %) of the hourly data within a factor of two during both periods. The agreement for the summertime secondary organic aerosol (OA) concentrations is also encouraging (mean bias = 0.1 µg m-3) during a photochemically intense period. The model tends to underpredict the summertime primary OA concentrations in the Paris greater area (by approximately 0.8 µg m-3) mainly due to missing primary OA emissions from cooking activities. The total cooking emissions are estimated to be approximately 80 mg d-1 per capita and have a distinct diurnal profile in which 50 % of the daily cooking OA is emitted during lunch time (12:00-14:00 LT) and 20 % during dinner time (20:00-22:00 LT). Results also show a large underestimation of secondary OA in the Paris greater area during wintertime (mean bias = -2.3 µg m-3) pointing towards a secondary OA formation process during low photochemical activity periods that is not simulated in the model.

Simulating the formation of carbonaceous aerosol in a European Megacity (Paris) during the MEGAPOLI summer and winter campaigns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fountoukis, C.; Megaritis, A. G.; Skyllakou, K.; Charalampidis, P. E.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Crippa, M.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Freutel, F.; Wiedensohler, A.; Pilinis, C.; Pandis, S. N.

2015-09-01

We use a three dimensional regional chemical transport model (PMCAMx) with high grid resolution and high resolution emissions (4 km × 4 km) over the Paris greater area to simulate the formation of carbonaceous aerosol during a summer (July 2009) and a winter (January/February 2010) period as part of the MEGAPOLI (Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional, and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation) campaigns. Model predictions of carbonaceous aerosol are compared against Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer and black carbon (BC) high time resolution measurements from three ground sites. PMCAMx predicts BC concentrations reasonably well reproducing the majority (70 %) of the hourly data within a factor of two during both periods. The agreement for the summertime secondary organic aerosol (OA) concentrations is also encouraging (mean bias = 0.1 μg m-3) during a photochemically intense period. The model tends to underpredict the summertime primary OA concentrations in the Paris greater area (by approximately 0.8 μg m-3) mainly due to missing primary OA emissions from cooking activities. The total cooking emissions are estimated to be approximately 80 mg d-1 per capita and have a distinct diurnal profile in which 50 % of the daily cooking OA is emitted during lunch time (12:00-14:00 LT) and 20 % during dinner time (20:00-22:00 LT). Results also show a large underestimation of secondary OA in the Paris greater area during wintertime (mean bias = -2.3 μg m-3) pointing towards a secondary OA formation process during low photochemical activity periods that is not simulated in the model.

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are also evaluated during the same timeframe using spectral decomposition of observed and modeled ozone time series with the aim of identifying the underlying forcing mechanisms that control ozone exceedances and making informed recommendations for the optimal use of regional-scale air quality models. The evaluation is focused on the warm season's (i.e., May–September) daily maximum 8-hr (DM8HR) ozone concentrations, the 4th highest (4th) and average of top 10 DM8HR ozone values (top10), as well as the spectrally-decomposed components of the DM8HR ozone time series using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. Results of the dynamic evaluation are presented for six regions in the U.S., consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climatic regions. During the earlier 11-yr period (1990–2000), the simulated and observed trends are not statistically significant. During the more recent 2000–2010 period, all trends are statistically significant and WRF-CMAQ captures the observed trend in most regions. Given large n

Investigating the climate and carbon cycle impacts of CMIP6 Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Hurtt, G. C.

2017-12-01

For the next round of CMIP6 climate simulations there are new historical and SSP - RCP land use and land cover change (LULCC) data sets that have been compiled through the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). The new time series data include new functionality following lessons learned through CMIP5 project and include new developments in the Community Land Model (CLM5) that will be used in all the CESM2 simulations of CMIP6. These changes include representing explicit crop modeling and better forest representation through the extended to 12 land units of the Global Land Model (GLM). To include this new information in CESM2 and CLM5 simulations new transient land surface data sets have been generated for the historical period 1850 - 2015 and for preliminary SSP - RCP paired future scenarios. The new data sets use updated MODIS Land Cover, Vegetation Continuous Fields, Leaf Area Index and Albedo to describe Primary and Secondary, Forested and Non Forested land units, as well as Rangelands and Pasture. Current day crop distributions are taken from the MIRCA2000 crop data set as done with the CLM 4.5 crop model and used to guide historical and future crop distributions. Preliminary "land only" simulations with CLM5 have been performed for the historical period and for the SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP3-RCP7 land use and land cover change time series data. Equivalent no land use and land cover change simulations have been run for these periods under the same meteorological forcing data. The "land only" simulations use GSWP3 historical atmospheric forcing data from 1850 to 2010 and then time increasing RCP 8.5 atmospheric CO2 and climate anomalies on top of the current day GSWP3 atmospheric forcing data from 2011 to 2100. The offline simulations provide a basis to evaluate the surface climate, carbon cycle and crop production impacts of changing land use and land cover for each of these periods. To further evaluate the impacts of the new CLM5 model and the CMIP6 land use data, these results are compared to the equivalent investigations performed in CMIP5 with the CLM4/CESM1 model. We find the role of land use and land cover change in a changing climate is strongly dependent on both of these.

3-D velocity structure model for long-period ground motion simulation of the hypothetical Nankai Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kagawa, T.; Petukhin, A.; Koketsu, K.; Miyake, H.; Murotani, S.; Tsurugi, M.

2010-12-01

Three dimensional velocity structure model of southwest Japan is provided to simulate long-period ground motions due to the hypothetical subduction earthquakes. The model is constructed from numerous physical explorations conducted in land and offshore areas and observational study of natural earthquakes. Any available information is involved to explain crustal structure and sedimentary structure. Figure 1 shows an example of cross section with P wave velocities. The model has been revised through numbers of simulations of small to middle earthquakes as to have good agreement with observed arrival times, amplitudes, and also waveforms including surface waves. Figure 2 shows a comparison between Observed (dash line) and simulated (solid line) waveforms. Low velocity layers have added on seismological basement to reproduce observed records. The thickness of the layer has been adjusted through iterative analysis. The final result is found to have good agreement with the results from other physical explorations; e.g. gravity anomaly. We are planning to make long-period (about 2 to 10 sec or longer) simulations of ground motion due to the hypothetical Nankai Earthquake with the 3-D velocity structure model. As the first step, we will simulate the observed ground motions of the latest event occurred in 1946 to check the source model and newly developed velocity structure model. This project is partly supported by Integrated Research Project for Long-Period Ground Motion Hazard Maps by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). The ground motion data used in this study were provided by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention Disaster (NIED). Figure 1 An example of cross section with P wave velocities Figure 2 Observed (dash line) and simulated (solid line) waveforms due to a small earthquake

A high-resolution OGCM simulation of the Tropical Pacific Ocean during the 1985-1994 TOGA period. Part I: Long equatorial waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boulanger, J. P.; Delecluse, F.; Maes, C.; Levy, C.

1995-01-01

A high resolution oceanic general circulation model of the three topical oceans is used to investigate long equatorial wave activity in the Pacific Ocean during the 1985-1994 TOGA period. Zonal wind stress forcing and simulated dynamic height are interpreted using techniques previously applied to data. Kelvin and first Rossby waves are observed propagating during all the period. A seasonal cycle and interannual anomalies are computed for each long equatorial wave. The east Pacific basin is mainly dominated by seasonal cycle variations while strong interannual anomalies are observed west of the dateline. Long wave interannual anomalies are then compared to wave coefficients simulated by a simple wind-forced model. Our results outline the major role played by wind forcing on interannual time scales in generating long equatorial waves. However, near both eastern and western boundaries, some differences can be attributed to long wave reflections. A comparison to wave coefficients calculated from GEOSAT sea-level data gives some insight of the model behavior.

A stable high-order perturbation of surfaces method for numerical simulation of diffraction problems in triply layered media

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hong, Youngjoon, E-mail: hongy@uic.edu; Nicholls, David P., E-mail: davidn@uic.edu

The accurate numerical simulation of linear waves interacting with periodic layered media is a crucial capability in engineering applications. In this contribution we study the stable and high-order accurate numerical simulation of the interaction of linear, time-harmonic waves with a periodic, triply layered medium with irregular interfaces. In contrast with volumetric approaches, High-Order Perturbation of Surfaces (HOPS) algorithms are inexpensive interfacial methods which rapidly and recursively estimate scattering returns by perturbation of the interface shape. In comparison with Boundary Integral/Element Methods, the stable HOPS algorithm we describe here does not require specialized quadrature rules, periodization strategies, or the solution ofmore » dense non-symmetric positive definite linear systems. In addition, the algorithm is provably stable as opposed to other classical HOPS approaches. With numerical experiments we show the remarkable efficiency, fidelity, and accuracy one can achieve with an implementation of this algorithm.« less

Stochastic resonance in the majority vote model on regular and small-world lattices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krawiecki, A.

2017-11-01

The majority vote model with two states on regular and small-world networks is considered under the influence of periodic driving. Monte Carlo simulations show that the time-dependent magnetization, playing the role of the output signal, exhibits maximum periodicity at nonzero values of the internal noise parameter q, which is manifested as the occurrence of the maximum of the spectral power amplification; the location of the maximum depends in a nontrivial way on the amplitude and frequency of the periodic driving as well as on the network topology. This indicates the appearance of stochastic resonance in the system as a function of the intensity of the internal noise. Besides, for low frequencies and for certain narrow ranges of the amplitudes of the periodic driving double maxima of the spectral power amplification as a function of q occur, i.e., stochastic multiresonance appears. The above-mentioned results quantitatively agree with those obtained from numerical simulations of the mean-field equations for the time-dependent magnetization. In contrast, analytic solutions for the spectral power amplification obtained from the latter equations using the linear response approximation deviate significanlty from the numerical results since the effect of the periodic driving on the system is not small even for vanishing amplitude.

Effects of caffeine and menthol on cognition and mood during simulated firefighting in the heat.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Balilionis, Gytis; Casaru, Catalina; Geary, Colleen; Schumacker, Randall E; Neggers, Yasmin H; Curtner-Smith, Matthew D; Richardson, Mark T; Bishop, Phillip A; Green, James M

2014-05-01

This study examined the separate effects of caffeine and menthol on cognition and mood during simulated firefighting in the heat. Participants (N = 10) performed three trials in a counterbalanced order, either with 400 mg caffeine, menthol lozenges, or placebo. The simulated firefighting consisted of 2 bouts of 20-min treadmill exercise and one bout of 20-min stepping exercise in the heat with two brief 15-min rest periods between each exercise phase. Exercise induced significant dehydration (>3%) and elevated rectal temperature (>38.9 °C), for all three conditions. Neither caffeine nor menthol reduced perceived exertion compared to placebo (p > 0.05). Mood ratings (i.e., alertness, hedonic tone, tension) significantly deteriorated over time (p < 0.05), but there was no difference among the three conditions. Simple reaction time, short-term memory, and retrieval memory did not alter with treatments or repeated evaluations. Reaction accuracy from a math test remained unchanged throughout the experimental period; reaction time from the math test was significantly faster after exposure to the heat (p < 0.05). It is concluded that, exhaustive exercise in the heat severely impacted mood, but minimally impacted cognition. These treatments failed to show ergogenic benefits in a simulated firefighting paradigm in a hot environment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Optimal Digital Controller Design for a Servo Motor Taking Account of Intersample Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akiyoshi, Tatsuro; Imai, Jun; Funabiki, Shigeyuki

A continuous-time plant with discretized continuous-time controller do not yield stability if the sampling rate is lower than some certain level. Thus far, high functioning electronic control has made use of high cost hardwares which are needed to implement discretized continuous-time controllers, while low cost hardwares generally do not have high enough sampling rate. This technical note presents results comparing performance indices with and without intersample behavior, and some answer to the question how a low specification device can control a plant effectively. We consider a machine simulating wafer handling robots at semiconductor factories, which is an electromechanical system driven by a direct drive motor. We illustrate controller design for the robot with and without intersample behavior, and simulations and experimental results by using these controllers. Taking intersample behavior into account proves to be effective to make control performance better and enables it to choose relatively long sampling period. By controller design via performance index with intersample behavior, we can cope with situation where short enough sampling period may not be employed, and freedom of controller design might be widened especially on choice of sampling period.

Development of Extended Period Pressure-Dependent Demand Water Distribution Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Judi, David R.; Mcpherson, Timothy N.

2015-03-20

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has used modeling and simulation of water distribution systems for N-1 contingency analyses to assess criticality of water system assets. Critical components considered in these analyses include pumps, tanks, and supply sources, in addition to critical pipes or aqueducts. A contingency represents the complete removal of the asset from system operation. For each contingency, an extended period simulation (EPS) is run using EPANET. An EPS simulates water system behavior over a time period, typically at least 24 hours. It assesses the ability of a system to respond and recover from asset disruption through distributed storagemore » in tanks throughout the system. Contingencies of concern are identified as those in which some portion of the water system has unmet delivery requirements. A delivery requirement is defined as an aggregation of water demands within a service area, similar to an electric power demand. The metric used to identify areas of unmet delivery requirement in these studies is a pressure threshold of 15 pounds per square inch (psi). This pressure threshold is used because it is below the required pressure for fire protection. Any location in the model with pressure that drops below this threshold at any time during an EPS is considered to have unmet service requirements and is used to determine cascading consequences. The outage area for a contingency is the aggregation of all service areas with a pressure below the threshold at any time during the EPS.« less

Dynamic Communicability Predicts Infectiousness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantzaris, Alexander V.; Higham, Desmond J.

Using real, time-dependent social interaction data, we look at correlations between some recently proposed dynamic centrality measures and summaries from large-scale epidemic simulations. The evolving network arises from email exchanges. The centrality measures, which are relatively inexpensive to compute, assign rankings to individual nodes based on their ability to broadcast information over the dynamic topology. We compare these with node rankings based on infectiousness that arise when a full stochastic SI simulation is performed over the dynamic network. More precisely, we look at the proportion of the network that a node is able to infect over a fixed time period, and the length of time that it takes for a node to infect half the network. We find that the dynamic centrality measures are an excellent, and inexpensive, proxy for the full simulation-based measures.

Persistence of initial conditions in continental scale air quality ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This study investigates the effect of initial conditions (IC) for pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere and soil on simulated air quality for two continental-scale Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model applications. One of these applications was performed for springtime and the second for summertime. Results show that a spin-up period of ten days commonly used in regional-scale applications may not be sufficient to reduce the effects of initial conditions to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged surface ozone concentrations everywhere while 20 days were found to be sufficient for the entire domain for the spring case and almost the entire domain for the summer case. For the summer case, differences were found to persist longer aloft due to circulation of air masses and even a spin-up period of 30 days was not sufficient to reduce the effects of ICs to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged layer 34 ozone concentrations over the southwestern portion of the modeling domain. Analysis of the effect of soil initial conditions for the CMAQ bidirectional NH3 exchange model shows that during springtime they can have an important effect on simulated inorganic aerosols concentrations for time periods of one month or longer. The effects are less pronounced during other seasons. The results, while specific to the modeling domain and time periods simulated here, suggest that modeling protocols need to be scrutinized for a given application and that it cannot be assum

Estimating time-varying exposure-outcome associations using case-control data: logistic and case-cohort analyses.

PubMed

Keogh, Ruth H; Mangtani, Punam; Rodrigues, Laura; Nguipdop Djomo, Patrick

2016-01-05

Traditional analyses of standard case-control studies using logistic regression do not allow estimation of time-varying associations between exposures and the outcome. We present two approaches which allow this. The motivation is a study of vaccine efficacy as a function of time since vaccination. Our first approach is to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations by fitting a series of logistic regressions within successive time periods, reusing controls across periods. Our second approach treats the case-control sample as a case-cohort study, with the controls forming the subcohort. In the case-cohort analysis, controls contribute information at all times they are at risk. Extensions allow left truncation, frequency matching and, using the case-cohort analysis, time-varying exposures. Simulations are used to investigate the methods. The simulation results show that both methods give correct estimates of time-varying effects of exposures using standard case-control data. Using the logistic approach there are efficiency gains by reusing controls over time and care should be taken over the definition of controls within time periods. However, using the case-cohort analysis there is no ambiguity over the definition of controls. The performance of the two analyses is very similar when controls are used most efficiently under the logistic approach. Using our methods, case-control studies can be used to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations where they may not previously have been considered. The case-cohort analysis has several advantages, including that it allows estimation of time-varying associations as a continuous function of time, while the logistic regression approach is restricted to assuming a step function form for the time-varying association.

A reaction-diffusion malaria model with seasonality and incubation period.

PubMed

Bai, Zhenguo; Peng, Rui; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2018-07-01

In this paper, we propose a time-periodic reaction-diffusion model which incorporates seasonality, spatial heterogeneity and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of the parasite. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is derived, and it is shown that the disease-free periodic solution is globally attractive if [Formula: see text], while there is an endemic periodic solution and the disease is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text]. Numerical simulations indicate that prolonging the EIP may be helpful in the disease control, while spatial heterogeneity of the disease transmission coefficient may increase the disease burden.

Using coronal seismology to estimate the magnetic field strength in a realistic coronal model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, F.; Peter, H.

2015-09-01

Aims: Coronal seismology is used extensively to estimate properties of the corona, e.g. the coronal magnetic field strength is derived from oscillations observed in coronal loops. We present a three-dimensional coronal simulation, including a realistic energy balance in which we observe oscillations of a loop in synthesised coronal emission. We use these results to test the inversions based on coronal seismology. Methods: From the simulation of the corona above an active region, we synthesise extreme ultraviolet emission from the model corona. From this, we derive maps of line intensity and Doppler shift providing synthetic data in the same format as obtained from observations. We fit the (Doppler) oscillation of the loop in the same fashion as done for observations to derive the oscillation period and damping time. Results: The loop oscillation seen in our model is similar to imaging and spectroscopic observations of the Sun. The velocity disturbance of the kink oscillation shows an oscillation period of 52.5 s and a damping time of 125 s, which are both consistent with the ranges of periods and damping times found in observations. Using standard coronal seismology techniques, we find an average magnetic field strength of Bkink = 79 G for our loop in the simulation, while in the loop the field strength drops from roughly 300 G at the coronal base to 50 G at the apex. Using the data from our simulation, we can infer what the average magnetic field derived from coronal seismology actually means. It is close to the magnetic field strength in a constant cross-section flux tube, which would give the same wave travel time through the loop. Conclusions: Our model produced a realistic looking loop-dominated corona, and provides realistic information on the oscillation properties that can be used to calibrate and better understand the result from coronal seismology. A movie associated with Fig. 1 is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Wavelet-based time series bootstrap model for multidecadal streamflow simulation using climate indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkyihun, Solomon Tassew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Zagona, Edith; Lall, Upmanu; Nowak, Kenneth

2016-05-01

A model to generate stochastic streamflow projections conditioned on quasi-oscillatory climate indices such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is presented. Recognizing that each climate index has underlying band-limited components that contribute most of the energy of the signals, we first pursue a wavelet decomposition of the signals to identify and reconstruct these features from annually resolved historical data and proxy based paleoreconstructions of each climate index covering the period from 1650 to 2012. A K-Nearest Neighbor block bootstrap approach is then developed to simulate the total signal of each of these climate index series while preserving its time-frequency structure and marginal distributions. Finally, given the simulated climate signal time series, a K-Nearest Neighbor bootstrap is used to simulate annual streamflow series conditional on the joint state space defined by the simulated climate index for each year. We demonstrate this method by applying it to simulation of streamflow at Lees Ferry gauge on the Colorado River using indices of two large scale climate forcings: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which are known to modulate the Colorado River Basin (CRB) hydrology at multidecadal time scales. Skill in stochastic simulation of multidecadal projections of flow using this approach is demonstrated.

Experimental identification of a comb-shaped chaotic region in multiple parameter spaces simulated by the Hindmarsh—Rose neuron model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Bing

2014-03-01

A comb-shaped chaotic region has been simulated in multiple two-dimensional parameter spaces using the Hindmarsh—Rose (HR) neuron model in many recent studies, which can interpret almost all of the previously simulated bifurcation processes with chaos in neural firing patterns. In the present paper, a comb-shaped chaotic region in a two-dimensional parameter space was reproduced, which presented different processes of period-adding bifurcations with chaos with changing one parameter and fixed the other parameter at different levels. In the biological experiments, different period-adding bifurcation scenarios with chaos by decreasing the extra-cellular calcium concentration were observed from some neural pacemakers at different levels of extra-cellular 4-aminopyridine concentration and from other pacemakers at different levels of extra-cellular caesium concentration. By using the nonlinear time series analysis method, the deterministic dynamics of the experimental chaotic firings were investigated. The period-adding bifurcations with chaos observed in the experiments resembled those simulated in the comb-shaped chaotic region using the HR model. The experimental results show that period-adding bifurcations with chaos are preserved in different two-dimensional parameter spaces, which provides evidence of the existence of the comb-shaped chaotic region and a demonstration of the simulation results in different two-dimensional parameter spaces in the HR neuron model. The results also present relationships between different firing patterns in two-dimensional parameter spaces.

Evaluation of eddy-current proximity devices for measuring thin potassium film thicknesses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asadourian, A. S.

1972-01-01

Two eddy current proximity probe systems were tested over a range of 0 to 508 micrometers (0 to 20 mils) of simulated potassium film thicknesses for simulated temperatures of 66 C (150 F), 232 C (450 F), and 666 C (1230 F). The results of short time calibration tests are presented. Instrument drift was a problem throughout the testing and, without correction, may limit the use of such systems to short periods of time. Additional development will be required prior to their being usable as practical instrumentation systems.

Simulation Study Using a New Type of Sample Variance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howe, D. A.; Lainson, K. J.

1996-01-01

We evaluate with simulated data a new type of sample variance for the characterization of frequency stability. The new statistic (referred to as TOTALVAR and its square root TOTALDEV) is a better predictor of long-term frequency variations than the present sample Allan deviation. The statistical model uses the assumption that a time series of phase or frequency differences is wrapped (periodic) with overall frequency difference removed. We find that the variability at long averaging times is reduced considerably for the five models of power-law noise commonly encountered with frequency standards and oscillators.

SIVEH: numerical computing simulation of wireless energy-harvesting sensor nodes.

PubMed

Sanchez, Antonio; Blanc, Sara; Climent, Salvador; Yuste, Pedro; Ors, Rafael

2013-09-04

The paper presents a numerical energy harvesting model for sensor nodes, SIVEH (Simulator I-V for EH), based on I-V hardware tracking. I-V tracking is demonstrated to be more accurate than traditional energy modeling techniques when some of the components present different power dissipation at either different operating voltages or drawn currents. SIVEH numerical computing allows fast simulation of long periods of time-days, weeks, months or years-using real solar radiation curves. Moreover, SIVEH modeling has been enhanced with sleep time rate dynamic adjustment, while seeking energy-neutral operation. This paper presents the model description, a functional verification and a critical comparison with the classic energy approach.

High-order finite difference formulations for the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations on the CM-5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tafti, D.

1995-12-01

The paper describes the features and implementation of a general purpose high-order accurate finite difference computer program for direct and large-eddy simulations of turbulence on the CM-5 in the data parallel mode. Benchmarking studies for a direct simulation of turbulent channel flow are discussed. Performance of up to 8.8 GFLOPS is obtained for the high-order formulations on 512 processing nodes of the CM-5. The execution time for a simulation with 24 million nodes in a domain with two periodic directions is in the range of 0.2 {mu}secs/time-step/degree of freedom on 512 processing nodes of the CM-5.

Evaluation of Model Performance over the Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, C. A.; Barton, N. P.; Chen, S.; Flatau, M. K.; Ridout, J. A.; Janiga, M.; Jensen, T.; Richman, J. G.; Metzger, E. J.; Baranowski, D.

2017-12-01

The introduction of high-resolution global coupled models holds promise for extended-range (subseasonal to seasonal) prediction of high-impact weather. While forecast models have shown considerable improvement in the prediction of tropical phenomena on these timescales, specifically in the simulation and prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), obstacles remain. In particular, many models still have difficulty accurately simulating the propagation of the MJO over the maritime continent. This has been hypothesized, at least in part, to be related to deficiencies in simulating the diurnal cycle over this region, which in turn is dependent on accurate representation of fine-scale atmosphere-ocean-land interactions, orography, and atmospheric convection. These issues have motivated the international Year of Maritime Continent (YMC) effort and the Office of Naval Research Propagation of Intra-Seasonal Tropical Oscillations (PISTON) initiative. In preparation for YMC and PISTON, we closely evaluate the performance of the Navy Earth System Model (NESM), a coupled global forecast model, in representing the diurnal cycle and other prominent phenomena in the maritime continent region. NESM performance is compared with stand-alone atmospheric simulations with prescribed fixed and analyzed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Initial results from the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation field phase (Fall 2011) period indicate that NESM is able to capture the precipitation day-time maximum over land and night-time maximum over ocean, but day-time precipitation over Borneo, Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula is too strong as compared to TRMM observations. The simulation of low-level winds qualitatively captures sea and land breeze patterns as compared with ERA-Interim analysis, with quantitative biases varying by island. The fully-coupled system and the stand-alone atmospheric model simulations are more similar to each other than to the observations, indicating that active ocean coupling is not the most prominent issue contributing to biases in these simulations. The performance of NESM will be more thoroughly evaluated and compared to other forecast systems using the 45-day forecasts currently being produced four times per week for the 1999-2015 time period under the NOAA SubX project.

Trauma Simulation Training Increases Confidence Levels in Prehospital Personnel Performing Life-Saving Interventions in Trauma Patients

PubMed Central

Patel, Archita D.; Meurer, David A.; Shuster, Jonathan J.

2016-01-01

Introduction. Limited evidence is available on simulation training of prehospital care providers, specifically the use of tourniquets and needle decompression. This study focused on whether the confidence level of prehospital personnel performing these skills improved through simulation training. Methods. Prehospital personnel from Alachua County Fire Rescue were enrolled in the study over a 2- to 3-week period based on their availability. Two scenarios were presented to them: a motorcycle crash resulting in a leg amputation requiring a tourniquet and an intoxicated patient with a stab wound, who experienced tension pneumothorax requiring needle decompression. Crews were asked to rate their confidence levels before and after exposure to the scenarios. Timing of the simulation interventions was compared with actual scene times to determine applicability of simulation in measuring the efficiency of prehospital personnel. Results. Results were collected from 129 participants. Pre- and postexposure scores increased by a mean of 1.15 (SD 1.32; 95% CI, 0.88–1.42; P < 0.001). Comparison of actual scene times with simulated scene times yielded a 1.39-fold difference (95% CI, 1.25–1.55) for Scenario 1 and 1.59 times longer for Scenario 2 (95% CI, 1.43–1.77). Conclusion. Simulation training improved prehospital care providers' confidence level in performing two life-saving procedures. PMID:27563467

Simulator for heterogeneous dataflow architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malekpour, Mahyar R.

1993-01-01

A new simulator is developed to simulate the execution of an algorithm graph in accordance with the Algorithm to Architecture Mapping Model (ATAMM) rules. ATAMM is a Petri Net model which describes the periodic execution of large-grained, data-independent dataflow graphs and which provides predictable steady state time-optimized performance. This simulator extends the ATAMM simulation capability from a heterogenous set of resources, or functional units, to a more general heterogenous architecture. Simulation test cases show that the simulator accurately executes the ATAMM rules for both a heterogenous architecture and a homogenous architecture, which is the special case for only one processor type. The simulator forms one tool in an ATAMM Integrated Environment which contains other tools for graph entry, graph modification for performance optimization, and playback of simulations for analysis.

Intercomparison of Streamflow Simulations between WRF-Hydro and Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model Frameworks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KIM, J.; Smith, M. B.; Koren, V.; Salas, F.; Cui, Z.; Johnson, D.

2017-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Weather Service (NWS) developed the Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) framework as an initial step towards spatially distributed modeling at River Forecast Centers (RFCs). Recently, the NOAA/NWS worked with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to implement the National Water Model (NWM) for nationally-consistent water resources prediction. The NWM is based on the WRF-Hydro framework and is run at a 1km spatial resolution and 1-hour time step over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and contributing areas in Canada and Mexico. In this study, we compare streamflow simulations from HL-RDHM and WRF-Hydro to observations from 279 USGS stations. For streamflow simulations, HL-RDHM is run on 4km grids with the temporal resolution of 1 hour for a 5-year period (Water Years 2008-2012), using a priori parameters provided by NOAA-NWS. The WRF-Hydro streamflow simulations for the same time period are extracted from NCAR's 23 retrospective run of the NWM (version 1.0) over CONUS based on 1km grids. We choose 279 USGS stations which are relatively less affected by dams or reservoirs, in the domains of six different RFCs. We use the daily average values of simulations and observations for the convenience of comparison. The main purpose of this research is to evaluate how HL-RDHM and WRF-Hydro perform at USGS gauge stations. We compare daily time-series of observations and both simulations, and calculate the error values using a variety of error functions. Using these plots and error values, we evaluate the performances of HL-RDHM and WRF-Hydro models. Our results show a mix of model performance across geographic regions.

Application of DIVWAG at Rodman Laboratory

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-03-01

Continue on reveree eide It neceaemry mnd identify by block number) DIVWAG War Game Simulation Mathematical Model 20. ABSTRACT (Continue on...parameters. Rodman Laboratory is using DIVWAG in a simulation mode. In this model of operation, once a game has been completed, a representative...a period of play by a blue (red) artillery battery as a function of range and game time). t Ü UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS

Optimal Time Allocation in Backscatter Assisted Wireless Powered Communication Networks.

PubMed

Lyu, Bin; Yang, Zhen; Gui, Guan; Sari, Hikmet

2017-06-01

This paper proposes a wireless powered communication network (WPCN) assisted by backscatter communication (BackCom). This model consists of a power station, an information receiver and multiple users that can work in either BackCom mode or harvest-then-transmit (HTT) mode. The time block is mainly divided into two parts corresponding to the data backscattering and transmission periods, respectively. The users first backscatter data to the information receiver in time division multiple access (TDMA) during the data backscattering period. When one user works in the BackCom mode, the other users harvest energy from the power station. During the data transmission period, two schemes, i.e., non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) and TDMA, are considered. To maximize the system throughput, the optimal time allocation policies are obtained. Simulation results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model.

Optimal Time Allocation in Backscatter Assisted Wireless Powered Communication Networks

PubMed Central

Lyu, Bin; Yang, Zhen; Gui, Guan; Sari, Hikmet

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a wireless powered communication network (WPCN) assisted by backscatter communication (BackCom). This model consists of a power station, an information receiver and multiple users that can work in either BackCom mode or harvest-then-transmit (HTT) mode. The time block is mainly divided into two parts corresponding to the data backscattering and transmission periods, respectively. The users first backscatter data to the information receiver in time division multiple access (TDMA) during the data backscattering period. When one user works in the BackCom mode, the other users harvest energy from the power station. During the data transmission period, two schemes, i.e., non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) and TDMA, are considered. To maximize the system throughput, the optimal time allocation policies are obtained. Simulation results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model. PMID:28587171

Simulation of FIB-SEM images for analysis of porous microstructures.

PubMed

Prill, Torben; Schladitz, Katja

2013-01-01

Focused ion beam nanotomography-scanning electron microscopy tomography yields high-quality three-dimensional images of materials microstructures at the nanometer scale combining serial sectioning using a focused ion beam with SEM. However, FIB-SEM tomography of highly porous media leads to shine-through artifacts preventing automatic segmentation of the solid component. We simulate the SEM process in order to generate synthetic FIB-SEM image data for developing and validating segmentation methods. Monte-Carlo techniques yield accurate results, but are too slow for the simulation of FIB-SEM tomography requiring hundreds of SEM images for one dataset alone. Nevertheless, a quasi-analytic description of the specimen and various acceleration techniques, including a track compression algorithm and an acceleration for the simulation of secondary electrons, cut down the computing time by orders of magnitude, allowing for the first time to simulate FIB-SEM tomography. © Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Effect of Seasonal and Long-Period Geopotential Variations on the GPS Orbits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melachroinos, Stavros A.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Chinn, Douglas S.; Zelensky, Nikita P.; Nicholas, Joseph B.; Beckley, Brian D.

2013-01-01

We examine the impact of using seasonal and long-period time-variable gravity field (TVG) models on GPS orbit determination, through simulations from 1994 to 2012. The models of time-variable gravity that we test include the GRGS release RL02 GRACE-derived 10-day gravity field models up to degree and order 20 (grgs20x20), a 4 x 4 series of weekly coefficients using GGM03S as a base derived from SLR and DORIS tracking to 11 satellites (tvg4x4), and a harmonic fit to the above 4 x 4 SLR-DORIS time series (goco2s_fit2). These detailed models are compared to GPS orbit simulations using a reference model (stdtvg) based on the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) and International GNSS Service (IGS) repro1 standards. We find that the new TVG modeling produces significant along, cross-track orbit differences as well as annual, semi-annual, draconitic and long-period effects in the Helmert translation parameters (Tx, Ty, Tz) of the GPS orbits with magnitudes of several mm. We show that the simplistic TVG modeling approach used by all of the IGS Analysis Centers, which is based on the models provided by the IERS standards, becomes progressively less adequate following 2006 when compared to the seasonal and long-period TVG models.

Towards the computation of time-periodic inertial range dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Veen, L.; Vela-Martín, A.; Kawahara, G.

2018-04-01

We explore the possibility of computing simple invariant solutions, like travelling waves or periodic orbits, in Large Eddy Simulation (LES) on a periodic domain with constant external forcing. The absence of material boundaries and the simple forcing mechanism make this system a comparatively simple target for the study of turbulent dynamics through invariant solutions. We show, that in spite of the application of eddy viscosity the computations are still rather challenging and must be performed on GPU cards rather than conventional coupled CPUs. We investigate the onset of turbulence in this system by means of bifurcation analysis, and present a long-period, large-amplitude unstable periodic orbit that is filtered from a turbulent time series. Although this orbit is computed on a coarse grid, with only a small separation between the integral scale and the LES filter length, the periodic dynamics seem to capture a regeneration process of the large-scale vortices.

Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the White Clay Creek subbasin of the Christina River Basin, Pennsylvania and Delaware, 1994-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senior, Lisa A.; Koerkle, Edward H.

2003-01-01

The Christina River Basin drains 565 square miles (mi2) in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. Water from the basin is used for recreation, drinking water supply, and to support aquatic life. The Christina River Basin includes the major subbasins of Brandywine Creek, White Clay Creek, and Red Clay Creek. The White Clay Creek is the second largest of the subbasins and drains an area of 108 mi2. Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the streams. A multi-agency water-quality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point and nonpoint-source contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on stream water quality. To assist in non point-source evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the three major subbasins and for the Christina River, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in smaller subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint-source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base- flow samples were collected during 1998 at two sites in the White Clay Creek subbasin and at nine sites in the other subbasins.The HSPF model for the White Clay Creek Basin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into 17 reaches draining areas that ranged from 1.37 to 13 mi2. Ten different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the White Clay Creek Basin are agricultural, forested, residential, and urban.The hydrologic component of the model was run at an hourly time step and primarily calibrated using streamflow data from two U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-measurement stations for the period of October 1, 1994, through October 29, 1998. Additional calibration was done using data from two other USGS streamflow-measurement stations with periods of record shorter than the calibration period. Daily precipitation data from two National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gages and hourly precipitation and other meteorological data for one NOAA gage were used for model input. The difference between simulated and observed streamflow volume ranged from -0.9 to 1.8 percent for the 4-year period at the two calibration sites with 4-year records. Annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow generally were greater than the overall error. For example, at a site near the bottom of the basin (drainage area of 89.1 mi2), annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow ranged from -5.8 to 14.4 percent and the overall error for the 4-year period was -0.9 percent. Calibration errors for 36 storm periods at the two calibration sites for total volume, low-flowrecession rate, 50-percent lowest flows, 10-percent highest flows, and storm peaks were within the recommended criteria of 20 percent or less. Much of the error in simulating storm events on an hourly time step can be attributed to uncertainty in the hourly rainfall data.The water-quality component of the model was calibrated using data collected by the USGS and state agencies at three USGS streamflow-measurement stations with variable water-quality monitoring periods ending October 1998. Because of availability, monitoring data for suspended-solids concentrations were used as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations, although suspended solids may underestimate suspended sediment and affect apparent accuracy of the suspended-sediment simulation. Comparison of observed to simulated loads for up to five storms in 1998 at each of the two nonpoint-source monitoring sites in the White Clay Creek Basin indicate that simulation error is commonly as large as an order of magnitude for suspended sediment and nutrients. The simulation error tends to be smaller for dissolved nutrients than for particulate nutrients. Errors of 40 percent or less for monthly or annual values indicate a fair to good water-quality calibration according to recommended criteria, with much larger errors possible for individual events. The accuracy of the water-quality calibration under stormflow conditions is limited by the relatively small amount of water-quality data available for the White Clay Creek Basin.Users of the White Clay Creek HSPF model should be aware of model limitations and consider the following if the model is used for predictive purposes: streamflow and water quality for individual storm events may not be well simulated, but the model performance is reasonable when evaluated over longer periods of time; the observed flow-duration curve for the simulation period is similar to the long-term flow-duration curve at White Clay Creek near Newark, Del., indicating that the calibration period is representative of all but highest 0.1 percent and lowest 0.1 percent of flows at that site; relative errors in streamflow and water-quality simulations are greater for smaller drainage areas than for larger areas; and calibration for water-quality was based on sparse data.

Early time evolution of a chemically produced electron depletion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scales, W. A.; Bernhardt, P. A.; Ganguli, G.

1995-01-01

The early time evolution of an ionospheric electron depletion produced by a radially expanding electron attachment chemical release is studied with a two-dimensional simulation model. The model includes electron attachment chemistry, incorporates fluid electrons, particle ions and neutrals, and considers the evolution in a plane perpendicular to the geomagnetic field for a low beta plasma. Timescales considered are of the order of or less than the cyclotron period of the negative ions that result as a by-product of the electron attacment reaction. This corresponds to time periods of tenths of seconds during recent experiemts. Simulation results show that a highly sheared azimuthal electron flow velocity develops in the radially expanding depletion boundary. This sheared electron flow velocity and the steep density gradients in the boundary give rise to small-scale irregulatities in the form of electron density cavities and spikes. The nonlinear evolution of these irregularities results in trapping and ultimately turbulent heating of the negative ions.

A Spiking Neural Network Model of the Lateral Geniculate Nucleus on the SpiNNaker Machine

PubMed Central

Sen-Bhattacharya, Basabdatta; Serrano-Gotarredona, Teresa; Balassa, Lorinc; Bhattacharya, Akash; Stokes, Alan B.; Rowley, Andrew; Sugiarto, Indar; Furber, Steve

2017-01-01

We present a spiking neural network model of the thalamic Lateral Geniculate Nucleus (LGN) developed on SpiNNaker, which is a state-of-the-art digital neuromorphic hardware built with very-low-power ARM processors. The parallel, event-based data processing in SpiNNaker makes it viable for building massively parallel neuro-computational frameworks. The LGN model has 140 neurons representing a “basic building block” for larger modular architectures. The motivation of this work is to simulate biologically plausible LGN dynamics on SpiNNaker. Synaptic layout of the model is consistent with biology. The model response is validated with existing literature reporting entrainment in steady state visually evoked potentials (SSVEP)—brain oscillations corresponding to periodic visual stimuli recorded via electroencephalography (EEG). Periodic stimulus to the model is provided by: a synthetic spike-train with inter-spike-intervals in the range 10–50 Hz at a resolution of 1 Hz; and spike-train output from a state-of-the-art electronic retina subjected to a light emitting diode flashing at 10, 20, and 40 Hz, simulating real-world visual stimulus to the model. The resolution of simulation is 0.1 ms to ensure solution accuracy for the underlying differential equations defining Izhikevichs neuron model. Under this constraint, 1 s of model simulation time is executed in 10 s real time on SpiNNaker; this is because simulations on SpiNNaker work in real time for time-steps dt ⩾ 1 ms. The model output shows entrainment with both sets of input and contains harmonic components of the fundamental frequency. However, suppressing the feed-forward inhibition in the circuit produces subharmonics within the gamma band (>30 Hz) implying a reduced information transmission fidelity. These model predictions agree with recent lumped-parameter computational model-based predictions, using conventional computers. Scalability of the framework is demonstrated by a multi-node architecture consisting of three “nodes,” where each node is the “basic building block” LGN model. This 420 neuron model is tested with synthetic periodic stimulus at 10 Hz to all the nodes. The model output is the average of the outputs from all nodes, and conforms to the above-mentioned predictions of each node. Power consumption for model simulation on SpiNNaker is ≪1 W. PMID:28848380

A Spiking Neural Network Model of the Lateral Geniculate Nucleus on the SpiNNaker Machine.

PubMed

Sen-Bhattacharya, Basabdatta; Serrano-Gotarredona, Teresa; Balassa, Lorinc; Bhattacharya, Akash; Stokes, Alan B; Rowley, Andrew; Sugiarto, Indar; Furber, Steve

2017-01-01

We present a spiking neural network model of the thalamic Lateral Geniculate Nucleus (LGN) developed on SpiNNaker, which is a state-of-the-art digital neuromorphic hardware built with very-low-power ARM processors. The parallel, event-based data processing in SpiNNaker makes it viable for building massively parallel neuro-computational frameworks. The LGN model has 140 neurons representing a "basic building block" for larger modular architectures. The motivation of this work is to simulate biologically plausible LGN dynamics on SpiNNaker. Synaptic layout of the model is consistent with biology. The model response is validated with existing literature reporting entrainment in steady state visually evoked potentials (SSVEP)-brain oscillations corresponding to periodic visual stimuli recorded via electroencephalography (EEG). Periodic stimulus to the model is provided by: a synthetic spike-train with inter-spike-intervals in the range 10-50 Hz at a resolution of 1 Hz; and spike-train output from a state-of-the-art electronic retina subjected to a light emitting diode flashing at 10, 20, and 40 Hz, simulating real-world visual stimulus to the model. The resolution of simulation is 0.1 ms to ensure solution accuracy for the underlying differential equations defining Izhikevichs neuron model. Under this constraint, 1 s of model simulation time is executed in 10 s real time on SpiNNaker; this is because simulations on SpiNNaker work in real time for time-steps dt ⩾ 1 ms. The model output shows entrainment with both sets of input and contains harmonic components of the fundamental frequency. However, suppressing the feed-forward inhibition in the circuit produces subharmonics within the gamma band (>30 Hz) implying a reduced information transmission fidelity. These model predictions agree with recent lumped-parameter computational model-based predictions, using conventional computers. Scalability of the framework is demonstrated by a multi-node architecture consisting of three "nodes," where each node is the "basic building block" LGN model. This 420 neuron model is tested with synthetic periodic stimulus at 10 Hz to all the nodes. The model output is the average of the outputs from all nodes, and conforms to the above-mentioned predictions of each node. Power consumption for model simulation on SpiNNaker is ≪1 W.

Parallel processing of real-time dynamic systems simulation on OSCAR (Optimally SCheduled Advanced multiprocessoR)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kasahara, Hironori; Honda, Hiroki; Narita, Seinosuke

1989-01-01

Parallel processing of real-time dynamic systems simulation on a multiprocessor system named OSCAR is presented. In the simulation of dynamic systems, generally, the same calculation are repeated every time step. However, we cannot apply to Do-all or the Do-across techniques for parallel processing of the simulation since there exist data dependencies from the end of an iteration to the beginning of the next iteration and furthermore data-input and data-output are required every sampling time period. Therefore, parallelism inside the calculation required for a single time step, or a large basic block which consists of arithmetic assignment statements, must be used. In the proposed method, near fine grain tasks, each of which consists of one or more floating point operations, are generated to extract the parallelism from the calculation and assigned to processors by using optimal static scheduling at compile time in order to reduce large run time overhead caused by the use of near fine grain tasks. The practicality of the scheme is demonstrated on OSCAR (Optimally SCheduled Advanced multiprocessoR) which has been developed to extract advantageous features of static scheduling algorithms to the maximum extent.

Finite time step and spatial grid effects in δf simulation of warm plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sturdevant, Benjamin J., E-mail: benjamin.j.sturdevant@gmail.com; Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309; Parker, Scott E.

2016-01-15

This paper introduces a technique for analyzing time integration methods used with the particle weight equations in δf method particle-in-cell (PIC) schemes. The analysis applies to the simulation of warm, uniform, periodic or infinite plasmas in the linear regime and considers the collective behavior similar to the analysis performed by Langdon for full-f PIC schemes [1,2]. We perform both a time integration analysis and spatial grid analysis for a kinetic ion, adiabatic electron model of ion acoustic waves. An implicit time integration scheme is studied in detail for δf simulations using our weight equation analysis and for full-f simulations usingmore » the method of Langdon. It is found that the δf method exhibits a CFL-like stability condition for low temperature ions, which is independent of the parameter characterizing the implicitness of the scheme. The accuracy of the real frequency and damping rate due to the discrete time and spatial schemes is also derived using a perturbative method. The theoretical analysis of numerical error presented here may be useful for the verification of simulations and for providing intuition for the design of new implicit time integration schemes for the δf method, as well as understanding differences between δf and full-f approaches to plasma simulation.« less

SQERTSS: Dynamic rank based throttling of transition probabilities in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

DOE PAGES

Danielson, Thomas; Sutton, Jonathan E.; Hin, Céline; ...

2017-06-09

Lattice based Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations offer a powerful simulation technique for investigating large reaction networks while retaining spatial configuration information, unlike ordinary differential equations. However, large chemical reaction networks can contain reaction processes with rates spanning multiple orders of magnitude. This can lead to the problem of “KMC stiffness” (similar to stiffness in differential equations), where the computational expense has the potential to be overwhelmed by very short time-steps during KMC simulations, with the simulation spending an inordinate amount of KMC steps / cpu-time simulating fast frivolous processes (FFPs) without progressing the system (reaction network). In order tomore » achieve simulation times that are experimentally relevant or desired for predictions, a dynamic throttling algorithm involving separation of the processes into speed-ranks based on event frequencies has been designed and implemented with the intent of decreasing the probability of FFP events, and increasing the probability of slow process events -- allowing rate limiting events to become more likely to be observed in KMC simulations. This Staggered Quasi-Equilibrium Rank-based Throttling for Steady-state (SQERTSS) algorithm designed for use in achieving and simulating steady-state conditions in KMC simulations. Lastly, as shown in this work, the SQERTSS algorithm also works for transient conditions: the correct configuration space and final state will still be achieved if the required assumptions are not violated, with the caveat that the sizes of the time-steps may be distorted during the transient period.« less

SQERTSS: Dynamic rank based throttling of transition probabilities in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danielson, Thomas; Sutton, Jonathan E.; Hin, Céline; Savara, Aditya

2017-10-01

Lattice based Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations offer a powerful simulation technique for investigating large reaction networks while retaining spatial configuration information, unlike ordinary differential equations. However, large chemical reaction networks can contain reaction processes with rates spanning multiple orders of magnitude. This can lead to the problem of "KMC stiffness" (similar to stiffness in differential equations), where the computational expense has the potential to be overwhelmed by very short time-steps during KMC simulations, with the simulation spending an inordinate amount of KMC steps/CPU time simulating fast frivolous processes (FFPs) without progressing the system (reaction network). In order to achieve simulation times that are experimentally relevant or desired for predictions, a dynamic throttling algorithm involving separation of the processes into speed-ranks based on event frequencies has been designed and implemented with the intent of decreasing the probability of FFP events, and increasing the probability of slow process events-allowing rate limiting events to become more likely to be observed in KMC simulations. This Staggered Quasi-Equilibrium Rank-based Throttling for Steady-state (SQERTSS) algorithm is designed for use in achieving and simulating steady-state conditions in KMC simulations. As shown in this work, the SQERTSS algorithm also works for transient conditions: the correct configuration space and final state will still be achieved if the required assumptions are not violated, with the caveat that the sizes of the time-steps may be distorted during the transient period.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

PubMed

Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

2017-10-01

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Introduction of steered molecular dynamics into UNRES coarse-grained simulations package.

PubMed

Sieradzan, Adam K; Jakubowski, Rafał

2017-03-30

In this article, an implementation of steered molecular dynamics (SMD) in coarse-grain UNited RESidue (UNRES) simulations package is presented. Two variants of SMD have been implemented: with a constant force and a constant velocity. The huge advantage of SMD implementation in the UNRES force field is that it allows to pull with the speed significantly lower than the accessible pulling speed in simulations with all-atom representation of a system, with respect to a reasonable computational time. Therefore, obtaining pulling speed closer to those which appear in the atomic force spectroscopy is possible. The newly implemented method has been tested for behavior in a microcanonical run to verify the influence of introduction of artificial constrains on keeping total energy of the system. Moreover, as time dependent artificial force was introduced, the thermostat behavior was tested. The new method was also tested via unfolding of the Fn3 domain of human contactin 1 protein and the I27 titin domain. Obtained results were compared with Gø-like force field, all-atom force field, and experimental results. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Method for Oscillation Errors Restriction of SINS Based on Forecasted Time Series.

PubMed

Zhao, Lin; Li, Jiushun; Cheng, Jianhua; Jia, Chun; Wang, Qiufan

2015-07-17

Continuity, real-time, and accuracy are the key technical indexes of evaluating comprehensive performance of a strapdown inertial navigation system (SINS). However, Schuler, Foucault, and Earth periodic oscillation errors significantly cut down the real-time accuracy of SINS. A method for oscillation error restriction of SINS based on forecasted time series is proposed by analyzing the characteristics of periodic oscillation errors. The innovative method gains multiple sets of navigation solutions with different phase delays in virtue of the forecasted time series acquired through the measurement data of the inertial measurement unit (IMU). With the help of curve-fitting based on least square method, the forecasted time series is obtained while distinguishing and removing small angular motion interference in the process of initial alignment. Finally, the periodic oscillation errors are restricted on account of the principle of eliminating the periodic oscillation signal with a half-wave delay by mean value. Simulation and test results show that the method has good performance in restricting the Schuler, Foucault, and Earth oscillation errors of SINS.

A Method for Oscillation Errors Restriction of SINS Based on Forecasted Time Series

PubMed Central

Zhao, Lin; Li, Jiushun; Cheng, Jianhua; Jia, Chun; Wang, Qiufan

2015-01-01

Continuity, real-time, and accuracy are the key technical indexes of evaluating comprehensive performance of a strapdown inertial navigation system (SINS). However, Schuler, Foucault, and Earth periodic oscillation errors significantly cut down the real-time accuracy of SINS. A method for oscillation error restriction of SINS based on forecasted time series is proposed by analyzing the characteristics of periodic oscillation errors. The innovative method gains multiple sets of navigation solutions with different phase delays in virtue of the forecasted time series acquired through the measurement data of the inertial measurement unit (IMU). With the help of curve-fitting based on least square method, the forecasted time series is obtained while distinguishing and removing small angular motion interference in the process of initial alignment. Finally, the periodic oscillation errors are restricted on account of the principle of eliminating the periodic oscillation signal with a half-wave delay by mean value. Simulation and test results show that the method has good performance in restricting the Schuler, Foucault, and Earth oscillation errors of SINS. PMID:26193283

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hailperin, M.

1993-01-01

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that the authors' techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system loading, resulting in fewer object migrations than local methods. The authors' method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive load-balancing methods. Results from a preliminary analysis of another system and from simulation with a synthetic load provide some evidence of more general applicability.

Phase shifting two coupled circadian pacemakers - Implications for jet lag

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gander, P. H.; Kronauer, R. E.; Graeber, R. C.

1985-01-01

Two Van der Pol oscillators with reciprocal linear velocity coupling are utilized to model the response of the human circadian timing system to abrupt displacements of the environmental time cues (zeitgebers). The core temperature rhythm and sleep-wake cycle simulated by the model are examined. The relationship between the masking of circadian rhythms by environmental variables and behavioral and physiological events and the rates of resynchronization is studied. The effects of zeitgeber phase shifts and zeitgeber strength on the resynchronization rates are analyzed. The influence of intrinsic pacemakers periods and coupling strength on resynchronization are investigated. The simulated data reveal that: resynchronization after a time zone shift depends on the magnitude of the shift; the time of day of the shift has little influence on resynchronization; the strength of zeitgebers affects the rate and direction of the resynchronization; the intrinsic pacemaker periods have a significant effect on resynchronization; and increasing the coupling between the oscillators results in an increase in the rate of resynchronization. The model data are compared to transmeridian flight studies data and similar resynchronization patterns are observed.

Multi-time scale Climate Informed Stochastic Hybrid Simulation-Optimization Model (McISH model) for Multi-Purpose Reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, M.; Lall, U.

2013-12-01

In order to mitigate the impacts of climate change, proactive management strategies to operate reservoirs and dams are needed. A multi-time scale climate informed stochastic model is developed to optimize the operations for a multi-purpose single reservoir by simulating decadal, interannual, seasonal and sub-seasonal variability. We apply the model to a setting motivated by the largest multi-purpose dam in N. India, the Bhakhra reservoir on the Sutlej River, a tributary of the Indus. This leads to a focus on timing and amplitude of the flows for the monsoon and snowmelt periods. The flow simulations are constrained by multiple sources of historical data and GCM future projections, that are being developed through a NSF funded project titled 'Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoon Asia'. The model presented is a multilevel, nonlinear programming model that aims to optimize the reservoir operating policy on a decadal horizon and the operation strategy on an updated annual basis. The model is hierarchical, in terms of having a structure that two optimization models designated for different time scales are nested as a matryoshka doll. The two optimization models have similar mathematical formulations with some modifications to meet the constraints within that time frame. The first level of the model is designated to provide optimization solution for policy makers to determine contracted annual releases to different uses with a prescribed reliability; the second level is a within-the-period (e.g., year) operation optimization scheme that allocates the contracted annual releases on a subperiod (e.g. monthly) basis, with additional benefit for extra release and penalty for failure. The model maximizes the net benefit of irrigation, hydropower generation and flood control in each of the periods. The model design thus facilitates the consistent application of weather and climate forecasts to improve operations of reservoir systems. The decadal flow simulations are re-initialized every year with updated climate projections to improve the reliability of the operation rules for the next year, within which the seasonal operation strategies are nested. The multi-level structure can be repeated for monthly operation with weekly subperiods to take advantage of evolving weather forecasts and seasonal climate forecasts. As a result of the hierarchical structure, sub-seasonal even weather time scale updates and adjustment can be achieved. Given an ensemble of these scenarios, the McISH reservoir simulation-optimization model is able to derive the desired reservoir storage levels, including minimum and maximum, as a function of calendar date, and the associated release patterns. The multi-time scale approach allows adaptive management of water supplies acknowledging the changing risks, meeting both the objectives over the decade in expected value and controlling the near term and planning period risk through probabilistic reliability constraints. For the applications presented, the target season is the monsoon season from June to September. The model also includes a monthly flood volume forecast model, based on a Copula density fit to the monthly flow and the flood volume flow. This is used to guide dynamic allocation of the flood control volume given the forecasts.

Global Scale Periodic Responses in Saturn’s Magnetosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Xianzhe; Kivelson, Margaret G.

2017-10-01

Despite having an axisymmetric internal magnetic field, Saturn’s magnetosphere exhibits periodic modulations in a variety of properties at periods close to the planetary rotation period. While the source of the periodicity remains unidentified, it is evident from Cassini observations that much of Saturn’s magnetospheric structure and dynamics is dominated by global-scale responses to the driving source of the periodicity. We have developed a global MHD model in which a rotating field-aligned current system is introduced by imposing vortical flows in the high-latitude ionosphere in order to simulate the magnetospheric periodicities. The model has been utilized to quantitatively characterize various periodic responses in the magnetosphere, such as the displacement of the magnetopause and bow shock and flapping of the tail plasma sheet, all of which show quantitative agreement with Cassini observations. One of our model predictions is periodic release of plasmoids in the tail that occurs preferentially in the midnight-to-dawn local time sector during each rotation cycle. Here we present detailed analysis of the periodic responses seen in our simulations focusing on the properties of plasmoids predicted by the model, including their spatial distribution, occurrence frequency, and mass loss rate. We will compare these modeled parameters with published Cassini observations, and discuss their implications for interpreting in-situ measurements.

Exponential synchronization of chaotic systems with time-varying delays and parameter mismatches via intermittent control.

PubMed

Cai, Shuiming; Hao, Junjun; Liu, Zengrong

2011-06-01

This paper studies the synchronization of coupled chaotic systems with time-varying delays in the presence of parameter mismatches by means of periodically intermittent control. Some novel and useful quasisynchronization criteria are obtained by using the methods which are different from the techniques employed in the existing works, and the derived results are less conservative. Especially, a strong constraint on the control width that the control width should be larger than the time delay imposed by the current references is released in this paper. Moreover, our results show that the synchronization criteria depend on the ratio of control width to control period, but not the control width or the control period. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to show the effectiveness of the theoretical results.

Integration of multiple theories for the simulation of laser interference lithography processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Te-Hsun; Yang, Yin-Kuang; Fu, Chien-Chung

2017-11-01

The periodic structure of laser interference lithography (LIL) fabrication is superior to other lithography technologies. In contrast to traditional lithography, LIL has the advantages of being a simple optical system with no mask requirements, low cost, high depth of focus, and large patterning area in a single exposure. Generally, a simulation pattern for the periodic structure is obtained through optical interference prior to its fabrication through LIL. However, the LIL process is complex and combines the fields of optical and polymer materials; thus, a single simulation theory cannot reflect the real situation. Therefore, this research integrates multiple theories, including those of optical interference, standing waves, and photoresist characteristics, to create a mathematical model for the LIL process. The mathematical model can accurately estimate the exposure time and reduce the LIL process duration through trial and error.

Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response ito the time-varying El Nino SST anomalies during May 1982 through October 1983

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fennessy, M. J.; Shukla, J.

1988-01-01

An attempt is made to simulate the atmospheric circulation anomalies corresponding to the observed SST anomalies in the Pacific Ocean for the 18-month period of May 1982 through October 1983. A GCM is first integrated for 25 months with monthly climatological boundary conditions of SST, soil moisture, sea, ice, and albedo. Starting from day 165 of this 'control' integration, which corresponds to May 1, the 18-month integration is carried out with the same boundary conditions except that the observed monthly SST anomalies for May 1982-October 1983 are added to the climatological values in the Pacific from 40 S to 60 N. The evolution of the model-simulated circulation and rainfall anomalies are compared to actual observations for the same period, and remarkable agreement is found.

Integration of multiple theories for the simulation of laser interference lithography processes.

PubMed

Lin, Te-Hsun; Yang, Yin-Kuang; Fu, Chien-Chung

2017-11-24

The periodic structure of laser interference lithography (LIL) fabrication is superior to other lithography technologies. In contrast to traditional lithography, LIL has the advantages of being a simple optical system with no mask requirements, low cost, high depth of focus, and large patterning area in a single exposure. Generally, a simulation pattern for the periodic structure is obtained through optical interference prior to its fabrication through LIL. However, the LIL process is complex and combines the fields of optical and polymer materials; thus, a single simulation theory cannot reflect the real situation. Therefore, this research integrates multiple theories, including those of optical interference, standing waves, and photoresist characteristics, to create a mathematical model for the LIL process. The mathematical model can accurately estimate the exposure time and reduce the LIL process duration through trial and error.

Monte-Carlo simulation of defect-cluster nucleation in metals during irradiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakasuji, Toshiki; Morishita, Kazunori; Ruan, Xiaoyong

2017-02-01

A multiscale modeling approach was applied to investigate the nucleation process of CRPs (copper rich precipitates, i.e., copper-vacancy clusters) in α-Fe containing 1 at.% Cu during irradiation. Monte-Carlo simulations were performed to investigate the nucleation process, with the rate theory equation analysis to evaluate the concentration of displacement defects, along with the molecular dynamics technique to know CRP thermal stabilities in advance. Our MC simulations showed that there is long incubation period at first, followed by a rapid growth of CRPs. The incubation period depends on irradiation conditions such as the damage rate and temperature. CRP's composition during nucleation varies with time. The copper content of CRPs shows relatively rich at first, and then becomes poorer as the precipitate size increases. A widely-accepted model of CRP nucleation process is finally proposed.

Numerical simulations of the flow with the prescribed displacement of the airfoil and comparison with experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Řidký, V.; Šidlof, P.; Vlček, V.

2013-04-01

The work is devoted to comparing measured data with the results of numerical simulations. As mathematical model was used mathematical model whitout turbulence for incompressible flow In the experiment was observed the behavior of designed NACA0015 airfoil in airflow. For the numerical solution was used OpenFOAM computational package, this is open-source software based on finite volume method. In the numerical solution is prescribed displacement of the airfoil, which corresponds to the experiment. The velocity at a point close to the airfoil surface is compared with the experimental data obtained from interferographic measurements of the velocity field. Numerical solution is computed on a 3D mesh composed of about 1 million ortogonal hexahedron elements. The time step is limited by the Courant number. Parallel computations are run on supercomputers of the CIV at Technical University in Prague (HAL and FOX) and on a computer cluster of the Faculty of Mechatronics of Liberec (HYDRA). Run time is fixed at five periods, the results from the fifth periods and average value for all periods are then be compared with experiment.

Land surface models systematically overestimate the intensity, duration and magnitude of seasonal-scale evaporative droughts

DOE PAGES

Ukkola, A. M.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Pitman, A. J.; ...

2016-10-13

Land surface models (LSMs) must accurately simulate observed energy and water fluxes during droughts in order to provide reliable estimates of future water resources. We evaluated 8 different LSMs (14 model versions) for simulating evapotranspiration (ET) during periods of evaporative drought (Edrought) across six flux tower sites. Using an empirically defined Edrought threshold (a decline in ET below the observed 15th percentile), we show that LSMs simulated 58 Edrought days per year, on average, across the six sites, ~3 times as many as the observed 20 d. The simulated Edrought magnitude was ~8 times greater than observed and twice asmore » intense. Our findings point to systematic biases across LSMs when simulating water and energy fluxes under water-stressed conditions. The overestimation of key Edrought characteristics undermines our confidence in the models' capability in simulating realistic drought responses to climate change and has wider implications for phenomena sensitive to soil moisture, including heat waves.« less

Applying the recurrence quantification analysis method for analyzing the recurrence of simulated multiple African easterly waves in 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, T.; Shen, B. W.; Wu, Y.; Faghih-Naini, S.; Li, J.

2017-12-01

In late August, 2006, six African easterly waves (AEWs) appeared sequentially over the African continent during a 30-day period. With a global model of 1/4 degree resolution, statistics of these AEWs were realistically captured. More interestingly, the formation, subsequent intensification, and movement of Hurricane Helene (2006) were simulated to a degree of satisfaction during the model integration from Day 22 to 30 (Shen et al., 2010). We then developed a parallel ensemble empirical mode decomposition method (PEEMD; Shen et al. 2012; 2017; Cheung et al. 2013) to reveal the role of downscaling processes associated with the environmental flows in determining the timing and location of Helene's formation (Wu and Shen, 2016), supporting its practical predictability at extended-range time scales. Recently, further analysis of the correlation coefficients (CCs) between the simulated temperature and reanalysis data showed that CCs are above 0.65 during the 30 day simulations but display oscillations. While high CCs are consistent with the accurate simulations of the AEWs and Hurricane Helene, oscillations may indicate the inaccurate simulations of moving speeds (i.e., an inaccurate phase) as compared to observations. The observed AEWs have comparable but slightly different periods. To quantitatively examine this space-varying feature in observations and the temporal oscillations in the CCs of the simulations, we select recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) methods and the recurrence plot (RP) in order to account for the local nature of these features. A recurrence is defined when the trajectory returns back to the neighborhood of a previously visited state. With the RQA methods, we can compute the "recurrence rate" and "determinism" present in the RP in order to reveal the degree of recurrence and determinism (or "predictability") of the recurrent solutions. To verify of our implementations in Python, we applied our methods to analyze idealized solutions (e.g., quasi-periodic solutions and limit torus) from the three-dimensional and five-dimensional dissipative or non-dissipative Lorenz Models (Shen and Faghih-Naini, 2017). Post verification, we apply the RQA methods to analyze the 30-days reanalysis and simulation data. In this talk, we will present preliminary but promising results.

Suppression of phase synchronisation in network based on cat's brain.

PubMed

Lameu, Ewandson L; Borges, Fernando S; Borges, Rafael R; Iarosz, Kelly C; Caldas, Iberê L; Batista, Antonio M; Viana, Ricardo L; Kurths, Jürgen

2016-04-01

We have studied the effects of perturbations on the cat's cerebral cortex. According to the literature, this cortex structure can be described by a clustered network. This way, we construct a clustered network with the same number of areas as in the cat matrix, where each area is described as a sub-network with a small-world property. We focus on the suppression of neuronal phase synchronisation considering different kinds of perturbations. Among the various controlling interventions, we choose three methods: delayed feedback control, external time-periodic driving, and activation of selected neurons. We simulate these interventions to provide a procedure to suppress undesired and pathological abnormal rhythms that can be associated with many forms of synchronisation. In our simulations, we have verified that the efficiency of synchronisation suppression by delayed feedback control is higher than external time-periodic driving and activation of selected neurons of the cat's cerebral cortex with the same coupling strengths.

Large-Eddy Simulation of Aeroacoustic Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pruett, C. David; Sochacki, James S.

1999-01-01

This report summarizes work accomplished under a one-year NASA grant from NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). The effort culminates three years of NASA-supported research under three consecutive one-year grants. The period of support was April 6, 1998, through April 5, 1999. By request, the grant period was extended at no-cost until October 6, 1999. Its predecessors have been directed toward adapting the numerical tool of large-eddy simulation (LES) to aeroacoustic applications, with particular focus on noise suppression in subsonic round jets. In LES, the filtered Navier-Stokes equations are solved numerically on a relatively coarse computational grid. Residual stresses, generated by scales of motion too small to be resolved on the coarse grid, are modeled. Although most LES incorporate spatial filtering, time-domain filtering affords certain conceptual and computational advantages, particularly for aeroacoustic applications. Consequently, this work has focused on the development of subgrid-scale (SGS) models that incorporate time-domain filters.

Seasonal variations of soil erosion in UK under climate change: simulations with the use of high-resolution regional climatic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciampalini, Rossano; Kendon, Elizabeth; Constantine, José Antonio; Schindewolf, Marcus; Hall, Ian

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on the hydrological cycle, twenty-first century climate change simulations for Great Britain forecast an increase of surface runoff and flooding frequency. Once quality and resolution of the simulated rainfall deeply influence the results, we adopted rainfall simulations issued of a high-resolution climate model recently carried out for extended periods (13 years for present-day and future periods 2100) at 1.5 km grid scale over the south of the United Kingdom (simulations, which for the future period use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP 8.5 scenario, Kendon et al., 2014). We simulated soil erosion with 3D soil erosion model Schmidt (1990) on two catchments of Great Britain: the Rother catchment (350 km2) in West Sussex, England, because it has reported some of the most erosive events observed during the last 50 years in the UK, and the Conwy catchment (628 Km2) in North Wales, which is extremely resilient to soil erosion because of the abundant natural vegetation. Estimation of changes in soil moisture, saturation deficit as well as vegetation cover at daily time step have been done with the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) (Best et al, 2011). Our results confirm the Rother catchment is the most erosive, while the Conwy catchment is the more resilient to soil erosion. Sediment production is perceived increase in both cases for the end of the century (27% and 50%, respectively). Seasonal disaggregation of the results revels that, while the most part of soil erosion is produced in winter months (DJF), the higher soil erosion variability for future periods is observed in summer (JJA). This behaviour is supported by the rainfall simulation analyse which highlighted this dual behaviour in precipitations.

Wave-vector and polarization dependent impedance model for a hexagonal periodic metasurface exemplified through finite-difference time-domain simulations.

PubMed

Ding, Yi S; He, Yang

2017-08-21

An isotropic impedance sheet model is proposed for a loop-type hexagonal periodic metasurface. Both frequency and wave-vector dispersion are considered near the resonance frequency. Therefore both the angle and polarization dependences of the metasurface impedance can be properly and simultaneously described in our model. The constitutive relation of this model is transformed into auxiliary differential equations which are integrated into the finite-difference time-domain algorithm. Finally, a finite large metasurface sample under oblique illumination is used to test the model and the algorithm. Our model and algorithm can significantly increase the accuracy of the homogenization methods for modeling periodic metasurfaces.

Simulations of groundwater flow, transport, and age in Albuquerque, New Mexico, for a study of transport of anthropogenic and natural contaminants (TANC) to public-supply wells

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heywood, Charles E.

2013-01-01

Vulnerability to contamination from manmade and natural sources can be characterized by the groundwater-age distribution measured in a supply well and the associated implications for the source depths of the withdrawn water. Coupled groundwater flow and transport models were developed to simulate the transport of the geochemical age-tracers carbon-14, tritium, and three chlorofluorocarbon species to public-supply wells in Albuquerque, New Mexico. A separate, regional-scale simulation of transport of carbon-14 that used the flow-field computed by a previously documented regional groundwater flow model was calibrated and used to specify the initial concentrations of carbon-14 in the local-scale transport model. Observations of the concentrations of each of the five chemical species, in addition to water-level observations and measurements of intra-borehole flow within a public-supply well, were used to calibrate parameters of the local-scale groundwater flow and transport models. The calibrated groundwater flow model simulates the mixing of “young” groundwater, which entered the groundwater flow system after 1950 as recharge at the water table, with older resident groundwater that is more likely associated with natural contaminants. Complexity of the aquifer system in the zone of transport between the water table and public-supply well screens was simulated with a geostatistically generated stratigraphic realization based upon observed lithologic transitions at borehole control locations. Because effective porosity was simulated as spatially uniform, the simulated age tracers are more efficiently transported through the portions of the simulated aquifer with relatively higher simulated hydraulic conductivity. Non-pumping groundwater wells with long screens that connect aquifer intervals having different hydraulic heads can provide alternate pathways for contaminant transport that are faster than the advective transport through the aquifer material. Simulation of flow and transport through these wells requires time discretization that adequately represents periods of pumping and non-pumping. The effects of intra-borehole flow are not fully represented in the simulation because it employs seasonal stress periods, which are longer than periods of pumping and non-pumping. Further simulations utilizing daily pumpage data and model stress periods may help quantify the relative effects of intra-borehole versus advective aquifer flow on the transport of contaminants near the public-supply wells. The fraction of young water withdrawn from the studied supply well varies with simulated pumping rates due to changes in the relative contributions to flow from different aquifer intervals. The advective transport of dissolved solutes from a known contaminant source to the public-supply wells was simulated by using particle-tracking. Because of the transient groundwater flow field, scenarios with alternative contaminant release times result in different simulated-particle fates, most of which are withdrawn from the aquifer at wells that are between the source and the studied supply well. The relatively small effective porosity required to simulate advective transport from the simulated contaminant source to the studied supply well is representative of a preferential pathway and not the predominant aquifer effective porosity that was estimated by the calibration of the model to observed chemical-tracer concentrations.

The calculation of the viscosity from the autocorrelation function using molecular and atomic stress tensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, S. T.

The stress-stress correlation function and the viscosity of a united-atom model of liquid decane are studied by equilibrium molecular dynamics simulation using two different formalisms for the stress tensor: the atomic and the molecular formalisms. The atomic and molecular correlation functions show dramatic difference in short-time behaviour. The integrals of the two correlation functions, however, become identical after a short transient period whichis significantly shorter than the rotational relaxation time of the molecule. Both reach the same plateau value in a time period corresponding to this relaxation time. These results provide a convenient guide for the choice of the upper integral time limit in calculating the viscosity by the Green-Kubo formula.

Development of hardware accelerator for molecular dynamics simulations: a computation board that calculates nonbonded interactions in cooperation with fast multipole method.

PubMed

Amisaki, Takashi; Toyoda, Shinjiro; Miyagawa, Hiroh; Kitamura, Kunihiro

2003-04-15

Evaluation of long-range Coulombic interactions still represents a bottleneck in the molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of biological macromolecules. Despite the advent of sophisticated fast algorithms, such as the fast multipole method (FMM), accurate simulations still demand a great amount of computation time due to the accuracy/speed trade-off inherently involved in these algorithms. Unless higher order multipole expansions, which are extremely expensive to evaluate, are employed, a large amount of the execution time is still spent in directly calculating particle-particle interactions within the nearby region of each particle. To reduce this execution time for pair interactions, we developed a computation unit (board), called MD-Engine II, that calculates nonbonded pairwise interactions using a specially designed hardware. Four custom arithmetic-processors and a processor for memory manipulation ("particle processor") are mounted on the computation board. The arithmetic processors are responsible for calculation of the pair interactions. The particle processor plays a central role in realizing efficient cooperation with the FMM. The results of a series of 50-ps MD simulations of a protein-water system (50,764 atoms) indicated that a more stringent setting of accuracy in FMM computation, compared with those previously reported, was required for accurate simulations over long time periods. Such a level of accuracy was efficiently achieved using the cooperative calculations of the FMM and MD-Engine II. On an Alpha 21264 PC, the FMM computation at a moderate but tolerable level of accuracy was accelerated by a factor of 16.0 using three boards. At a high level of accuracy, the cooperative calculation achieved a 22.7-fold acceleration over the corresponding conventional FMM calculation. In the cooperative calculations of the FMM and MD-Engine II, it was possible to achieve more accurate computation at a comparable execution time by incorporating larger nearby regions. Copyright 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comput Chem 24: 582-592, 2003

Space-Time Urban Air Pollution Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, A.; Trigo, R. M.; Soares, A.

2012-04-01

Air pollution, like other natural phenomena, may be considered a space-time process. However, the simultaneous integration of time and space is not an easy task to perform, due to the existence of different uncertainties levels and data characteristics. In this work we propose a hybrid method that combines geostatistical and neural models to analyze PM10 time series recorded in the urban area of Lisbon (Portugal) for the 2002-2006 period and to produce forecasts. Geostatistical models have been widely used to characterize air pollution in urban areas, where the pollutant sources are considered diffuse, and also to industrial areas with localized emission sources. It should be stressed however that most geostatistical models correspond basically to an interpolation methodology (estimation, simulation) of a set of variables in a spatial or space-time domain. The temporal prediction of a pollutant usually requires knowledge of the main trends and complex patterns of physical dispersion phenomenon. To deal with low resolution problems and to enhance reliability of predictions, an approach based on neural network short term predictions in the monitoring stations which behave as a local conditioner to a fine grid stochastic simulation model is presented here. After the pollutant concentration is predicted for a given time period at the monitoring stations, we can use the local conditional distributions of observed values, given the predicted value for that period, to perform the spatial simulations for the entire area and consequently evaluate the spatial uncertainty of pollutant concentration. To attain this objective, we propose the use of direct sequential simulations with local distributions. With this approach one succeed to predict the space-time distribution of pollutant concentration that accounts for the time prediction uncertainty (reflecting the neural networks efficiency at each local monitoring station) and the spatial uncertainty as revealed by the spatial variograms. The dataset used consists of PM10 concentrations recorded hourly by 12 monitoring stations within the Lisbon's area, for the period 2002-2006. In addition, meteorological data recorded at 3 monitoring stations and boundary layer height (BLH) daily values from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Weather Forecast), ERA Interim, were also used. Based on the large-scale standard pressure fields from the ERA40/ECMWF, prevailing circulation patterns at regional scale where determined and used on the construction of the models. After the daily forecasts were produced, the difference between the average maps based on real observations and predicted values were determined and the model's performance was assessed. Based on the analysis of the results, we conclude that the proposed approach shows to be a very promising alternative for urban air quality characterization because of its good results and simplicity of application.

Wavelet Monte Carlo dynamics: A new algorithm for simulating the hydrodynamics of interacting Brownian particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyer, Oliver T.; Ball, Robin C.

2017-03-01

We develop a new algorithm for the Brownian dynamics of soft matter systems that evolves time by spatially correlated Monte Carlo moves. The algorithm uses vector wavelets as its basic moves and produces hydrodynamics in the low Reynolds number regime propagated according to the Oseen tensor. When small moves are removed, the correlations closely approximate the Rotne-Prager tensor, itself widely used to correct for deficiencies in Oseen. We also include plane wave moves to provide the longest range correlations, which we detail for both infinite and periodic systems. The computational cost of the algorithm scales competitively with the number of particles simulated, N, scaling as N In N in homogeneous systems and as N in dilute systems. In comparisons to established lattice Boltzmann and Brownian dynamics algorithms, the wavelet method was found to be only a factor of order 1 times more expensive than the cheaper lattice Boltzmann algorithm in marginally semi-dilute simulations, while it is significantly faster than both algorithms at large N in dilute simulations. We also validate the algorithm by checking that it reproduces the correct dynamics and equilibrium properties of simple single polymer systems, as well as verifying the effect of periodicity on the mobility tensor.

The role of periodically varying discharge on river plume structure and transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Yeping; Horner-Devine, Alexander R.; Avener, Margaret; Bevan, Shaun

2018-04-01

We present results from laboratory experiments that simulate the effects of periodically varying discharge on buoyant coastal plumes. Freshwater is discharged into a two meter diameter tank filled with saltwater on a rotating table. The mean inflow rate, tank rotation period and density of the ambient salt water are varied to simulate a range of inflow Froude and Rossby numbers. The amplitude and the period of the inflow modulation are varied across a range that simulates variability due to tides and storms. Using the optical thickness method, we measure the width and depth of the plume, plume volume and freshwater retention rate in the plume. With constant discharge, freshwater is retained in a growing anticyclonic bulge circulation near the river mouth, as observed in previous studies. When the discharge is varied, the bulge geometry oscillates between a circular plume structure that extends mainly in the offshore direction, and a compressed plume structure that extends mainly in the alongshore direction. The oscillations result in periodic variations in the width and depth of the bulge and the incidence angle formed where the bulge flow re-attaches with the coastal wall. The oscillations are more pronounced for longer modulation periods, but are relatively insensitive to the modulation amplitude. A phase difference between the time varying transport within the bulge and bulge geometry determines the fraction of the bulge flow discharged into the coastal current. As a result, the modulation period determines the variations in amount of freshwater that returns to the bulge. Freshwater retention in the bulge is increased in longer modulation periods and more pronounced for larger modulation amplitudes.

The Efficacy of a Restart Break for Recycling with Optimal Performance Depends Critically on Circadian Timing

PubMed Central

Van Dongen, Hans P.A.; Belenky, Gregory; Vila, Bryan J.

2011-01-01

Objectives: Under simulated shift-work conditions, we investigated the efficacy of a restart break for maintaining neurobehavioral functioning across consecutive duty cycles, as a function of the circadian timing of the duty periods. Design: As part of a 14-day experiment, subjects underwent two cycles of five simulated daytime or nighttime duty days, separated by a 34-hour restart break. Cognitive functioning and high-fidelity driving simulator performance were tested 4 times per day during the two duty cycles. Lapses on a psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) served as the primary outcome variable. Selected sleep periods were recorded polysomnographically. Setting: The experiment was conducted under standardized, controlled laboratory conditions with continuous monitoring. Participants: Twenty-seven healthy adults (13 men, 14 women; aged 22–39 years) participated in the study. Interventions: Subjects were randomly assigned to a nighttime duty (experimental) condition or a daytime duty (control) condition. The efficacy of the 34-hour restart break for maintaining neurobehavioral functioning from the pre-restart duty cycle to the post-restart duty cycle was compared between these two conditions. Results: Relative to the daytime duty condition, the nighttime duty condition was associated with reduced amounts of sleep, whereas sleep latencies were shortened and slow-wave sleep appeared to be conserved. Neurobehavioral performance measures ranging from lapses of attention on the PVT to calculated fuel consumption on the driving simulators remained optimal across time of day in the daytime duty schedule, but degraded across time of night in the nighttime duty schedule. The 34-hour restart break was efficacious for maintaining PVT performance and other objective neurobehavioral functioning profiles from one duty cycle to the next in the daytime duty condition, but not in the nighttime duty condition. Subjective sleepiness did not reliably track objective neurobehavioral deficits. Conclusions: The 34-hour restart break was adequate for maintaining performance in the case of optimal circadian placement of sleep and duty periods (control condition) but was inadequate (and perhaps even detrimental) for maintaining performance in a simulated nighttime duty schedule (experimental condition). Current US transportation hours-of-service regulations mandate time off duty but do not consider the circadian aspects of shift scheduling. Reinforcing a recent trend of applying sleep science to inform policymaking for duty and rest times, our findings indicate that restart provisions in hours-of-service regulations could be improved by taking the circadian timing of the duty schedules into account. Citation: Van Dongen HPA; Belenky G; Vila BJ. The efficacy of a restart break for recycling with optimal performance depends critically on circadian timing. SLEEP 2011;34(7):917-929. PMID:21731142

Simulations of the September 1987 lower thermospheric tides with the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fesen, C. G.; Roble, R. G.

1991-02-01

The NCAR thermosphere-ionosphere general circulation model (TIGCM) was used to simulate incoherent scatter radar observations of the lower thermosphere tides during the first Lower Thermosphere Coupling Study (LTCS) campaign, September 21-26, 1987. The TIGCM utilized time-varying histories of the model input fields obtained from the World Data Center for the LTCS period. The model inputs included solar flux, total hemispheric power, solar wind data from which the cross-polar-cap potential was derived, and geomagnetic Kp index. Calculations were made for the semidiurnal ion temperatures and horizontal neutral winds at locations representative of Arecibo, Millstone Hill, and Sondrestrom. Tidal inputs to the TIGCM lower boundary were obtained from the middle atmosphere model of Forbes and Vial (1989). The TIGCM tidal structures are in fair general agreement with the observations. The amplitudes tended to be better simulated than the phases, and the mid- and high-latitude locations are simulated better than the low-latitude thermosphere. The model simulations were used to investigate the daily variability of the tides due to the geomagnetic activity occurring during this period.

ICASE Semiannual Report, 1 April 1990 - 30 September 1990

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-11-01

underlies parallel simulation protocols that synchronize based on logical time (all known approaches). This framework describes a suf- ficient set of...conducted primarily by visiting scientists from universities and from industry, who have resident appointments for limited periods of time , and by consultants...wave equation with point sources and semireflecting impedance boundary conditions. For sources that are piece- wise polynomial in time we get a finite

Transient hydrodynamic finite-size effects in simulations under periodic boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asta, Adelchi J.; Levesque, Maximilien; Vuilleumier, Rodolphe; Rotenberg, Benjamin

2017-06-01

We use lattice-Boltzmann and analytical calculations to investigate transient hydrodynamic finite-size effects induced by the use of periodic boundary conditions. These effects are inevitable in simulations at the molecular, mesoscopic, or continuum levels of description. We analyze the transient response to a local perturbation in the fluid and obtain the local velocity correlation function via linear response theory. This approach is validated by comparing the finite-size effects on the steady-state velocity with the known results for the diffusion coefficient. We next investigate the full time dependence of the local velocity autocorrelation function. We find at long times a crossover between the expected t-3 /2 hydrodynamic tail and an oscillatory exponential decay, and study the scaling with the system size of the crossover time, exponential rate and amplitude, and oscillation frequency. We interpret these results from the analytic solution of the compressible Navier-Stokes equation for the slowest modes, which are set by the system size. The present work not only provides a comprehensive analysis of hydrodynamic finite-size effects in bulk fluids, which arise regardless of the level of description and simulation algorithm, but also establishes the lattice-Boltzmann method as a suitable tool to investigate such effects in general.

Optical and infrared properties of glancing angle-deposited nanostructured tungsten films

DOE PAGES

Ungaro, Craig; Shah, Ankit; Kravchenko, Ivan; ...

2015-02-06

For this study, nanotextured tungsten thin films were obtained on a stainless steel (SS) substrate using the glancing-angle-deposition (GLAD) method. It was found that the optical absorption and thermal emittance of the SS substrate can be controlled by varying the parameters used during deposition. Finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) simulations were used to predict the optical absorption and infrared (IR) reflectance spectra of the fabricated samples, and good agreement was found between simulated and measured data. FDTD simulations were also used to predict the effect of changes in the height and periodicity of the nanotextures. These simulations show that good control overmore » the absorption can be achieved by altering the height and periodicity of the nanostructure. These nanostructures were shown to be temperature stable up to 500°C with the addition of a protective HfO 2 layer. Finally, applications for this structure are explored, including a promising application for solar thermal energy systems.« less

Study on temperature sensitivity of topological insulators based on long-period fiber grating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jianhua; Zhao, Chenghai; Li, Jianbo; He, Mengdong

2017-06-01

Based on a long-period fiber grating, we conducted experimental research on the temperature sensitivity of topological insulators. The long-period fiber grating and topological insulators solution were encapsulated in a capillary tube using UV glue, and the temperature response was measured. Within a range of 35 to 75 centigrade, one resonance dip of a long-period fiber grating exhibits a redshift of 1.536 nm. The temperature sensitivity is about 7.7 times of an ordinary long-period fiber grating's sensitivity (0.005 nm/°C). A numerical simulation is also performed on the basis of the experiments.

Investigation of boundary-layer wind predictions during nocturnal low-level jet events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirocha, Jeff D.; Simpson, Matthew D.; Fast, Jerome D.

Simulations of two periods featuring three consecutive low level jet (LLJ) events in the US Upper Great Plains during the autumn of 2011 were conducted to explore the impacts of various setup configurations and physical process models on simulated flow parameters within the lowest 200 m above the surface, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Sensitivities of simulated flow parameters to the horizontal and vertical grid spacing, planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface model (LSM) physics options, were assessed. Data from a Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) system, deployed to the Weather Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP; Finleymore » et al. 2013) were used to evaluate the accuracy of simulated wind speed and direction at 80 m above the surface, as well as their vertical distributions between 120 and 40 m, covering the typical span of contemporary tall wind turbines. All of the simulations qualitatively captured the overall diurnal cycle of wind speed and stratification, producing LLJs during each overnight period, however large discrepancies occurred at certain times for each simulation in relation to the observations. 54-member ensembles encompassing changes of the above discussed configuration parameters displayed a wide range of simulated vertical distributions of wind speed and direction, and potential temperature, reflecting highly variable representations of stratification during the weakly stable overnight conditions. Root mean square error (RMSE) statistics show that different ensemble members performed better and worse in various simulated parameters at different times, with no clearly superior configuration . Simulations using a PBL parameterization designed specifically for the stable conditions investigated herein provided superior overall simulations of wind speed at 80 m, demonstrating the efficacy of targeting improvements of physical process models in areas of known deficiencies. However, the considerable magnitudes of the RMSE values of even the best performing simulations indicate ample opportunities for further improvements.« less

Relative role of astronomical forcings and the atmospheric carbon dioxide during the glacial cycles of the last 1.5 million years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe-Ouchi, A.; Saito, F.; Chan, W. L.; Kino, K.; Watanabe, Y.; Oishi, R.

2017-12-01

Climate change with wax and wane of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheet occurred in the past 800 thousand years characterized by about 100 thousand year cycle with a large amplitude of sawtooth pattern, following a transition from a period of 40 thousand years cycle with small amplitude of ice sheet change at about 1 million years ago. Although the importance of insolation as the ultimate driver is now appreciated, the mechanism what determines the timing and strength of ice age termination as well as the amplitude of glacial cycles are far from clearly understood. Here we simulate the glacial cycles of the last 1.5 Ma and investigate the origin of 100ka periodicity and the role of astronomical forcing and atmospheric carbon dioxide content using a three dimensional ice sheet model with the input examined by the MIROC 4m GCM. The model is forced by astronomical parameters (Berger, 1978) and atmospheric CO2 change obtained from ice cores (Vostok, EPICA and DomeF), where available. Ice age cycles with a saw-tooth shape 100 ka periodicity are simulated at low CO2 levels, with the major NH ice sheet volume as well as geographical distribution and timing of interglacials successfully simulated. The model shows the interglacials at the right timings even under constant CO2 levels, with few exceptions, e.g. MIS11 around 400 thousand years ago (400 kyr BP). Through sensitivity experiments we examine individual factors determining the glacial termination, such as constant and variable CO2 levels, obliquity, precession and eccentricity.

Electric Power Distribution System Model Simplification Using Segment Substitution

DOE PAGES

Reiman, Andrew P.; McDermott, Thomas E.; Akcakaya, Murat; ...

2017-09-20

Quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulation is used to simulate the behavior of distribution systems over long periods of time (typically hours to years). The technique involves repeatedly solving the load-flow problem for a distribution system model and is useful for distributed energy resource (DER) planning. When a QSTS simulation has a small time step and a long duration, the computational burden of the simulation can be a barrier to integration into utility workflows. One way to relieve the computational burden is to simplify the system model. The segment substitution method of simplifying distribution system models introduced in this paper offers modelmore » bus reduction of up to 98% with a simplification error as low as 0.2% (0.002 pu voltage). Finally, in contrast to existing methods of distribution system model simplification, which rely on topological inspection and linearization, the segment substitution method uses black-box segment data and an assumed simplified topology.« less

Electric Power Distribution System Model Simplification Using Segment Substitution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reiman, Andrew P.; McDermott, Thomas E.; Akcakaya, Murat

Quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulation is used to simulate the behavior of distribution systems over long periods of time (typically hours to years). The technique involves repeatedly solving the load-flow problem for a distribution system model and is useful for distributed energy resource (DER) planning. When a QSTS simulation has a small time step and a long duration, the computational burden of the simulation can be a barrier to integration into utility workflows. One way to relieve the computational burden is to simplify the system model. The segment substitution method of simplifying distribution system models introduced in this paper offers modelmore » bus reduction of up to 98% with a simplification error as low as 0.2% (0.002 pu voltage). Finally, in contrast to existing methods of distribution system model simplification, which rely on topological inspection and linearization, the segment substitution method uses black-box segment data and an assumed simplified topology.« less

Hazard assessment of long-period ground motions for the Nankai Trough earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, T.; Morikawa, N.; Aoi, S.; Fujiwara, H.

2013-12-01

We evaluate a seismic hazard for long-period ground motions associated with the Nankai Trough earthquakes (M8~9) in southwest Japan. Large interplate earthquakes occurring around the Nankai Trough have caused serious damages due to strong ground motions and tsunami; most recent events were in 1944 and 1946. Such large interplate earthquake potentially causes damages to high-rise and large-scale structures due to long-period ground motions (e.g., 1985 Michoacan earthquake in Mexico, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake in Japan). The long-period ground motions are amplified particularly on basins. Because major cities along the Nankai Trough have developed on alluvial plains, it is therefore important to evaluate long-period ground motions as well as strong motions and tsunami for the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquakes. The long-period ground motions are evaluated by the finite difference method (FDM) using 'characterized source models' and the 3-D underground structure model. The 'characterized source model' refers to a source model including the source parameters necessary for reproducing the strong ground motions. The parameters are determined based on a 'recipe' for predicting strong ground motion (Earthquake Research Committee (ERC), 2009). We construct various source models (~100 scenarios) giving the various case of source parameters such as source region, asperity configuration, and hypocenter location. Each source region is determined by 'the long-term evaluation of earthquakes in the Nankai Trough' published by ERC. The asperity configuration and hypocenter location control the rupture directivity effects. These parameters are important because our preliminary simulations are strongly affected by the rupture directivity. We apply the system called GMS (Ground Motion Simulator) for simulating the seismic wave propagation based on 3-D FDM scheme using discontinuous grids (Aoi and Fujiwara, 1999) to our study. The grid spacing for the shallow region is 200 m and 100 m in horizontal and vertical, respectively. The grid spacing for the deep region is three times coarser. The total number of grid points is about three billion. The 3-D underground structure model used in the FD simulation is the Japan integrated velocity structure model (ERC, 2012). Our simulation is valid for period more than two seconds due to the lowest S-wave velocity and grid spacing. However, because the characterized source model may not sufficiently support short period components, we should be interpreted the reliable period of this simulation with caution. Therefore, we consider the period more than five seconds instead of two seconds for further analysis. We evaluate the long-period ground motions using the velocity response spectra for the period range between five and 20 second. The preliminary simulation shows a large variation of response spectra at a site. This large variation implies that the ground motion is very sensitive to different scenarios. And it requires studying the large variation to understand the seismic hazard. Our further study will obtain the hazard curves for the Nankai Trough earthquake (M 8~9) by applying the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to the simulation results.

A modelling study of long term green roof retention performance.

PubMed

Stovin, Virginia; Poë, Simon; Berretta, Christian

2013-12-15

This paper outlines the development of a conceptual hydrological flux model for the long term continuous simulation of runoff and drought risk for green roof systems. A green roof's retention capacity depends upon its physical configuration, but it is also strongly influenced by local climatic controls, including the rainfall characteristics and the restoration of retention capacity associated with evapotranspiration during dry weather periods. The model includes a function that links evapotranspiration rates to substrate moisture content, and is validated against observed runoff data. The model's application to typical extensive green roof configurations is demonstrated with reference to four UK locations characterised by contrasting climatic regimes, using 30-year rainfall time-series inputs at hourly simulation time steps. It is shown that retention performance is dependent upon local climatic conditions. Volumetric retention ranges from 0.19 (cool, wet climate) to 0.59 (warm, dry climate). Per event retention is also considered, and it is demonstrated that retention performance decreases significantly when high return period events are considered in isolation. For example, in Sheffield the median per-event retention is 1.00 (many small events), but the median retention for events exceeding a 1 in 1 yr return period threshold is only 0.10. The simulation tool also provides useful information about the likelihood of drought periods, for which irrigation may be required. A sensitivity study suggests that green roofs with reduced moisture-holding capacity and/or low evapotranspiration rates will tend to offer reduced levels of retention, whilst high moisture-holding capacity and low evapotranspiration rates offer the strongest drought resistance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Time-Varying Evidence to Test Models of Decision Dynamics: Bounded Diffusion vs. the Leaky Competing Accumulator Model

PubMed Central

Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Gao, Juan; McClelland, James L.; Usher, Marius

2012-01-01

When people make decisions, do they give equal weight to evidence arriving at different times? A recent study (Kiani et al., 2008) using brief motion pulses (superimposed on a random moving dot display) reported a primacy effect: pulses presented early in a motion observation period had a stronger impact than pulses presented later. This observation was interpreted as supporting the bounded diffusion (BD) model and ruling out models in which evidence accumulation is subject to leakage or decay of early-arriving information. We use motion pulses and other manipulations of the timing of the perceptual evidence in new experiments and simulations that support the leaky competing accumulator (LCA) model as an alternative to the BD model. While the LCA does include leakage, we show that it can exhibit primacy as a result of competition between alternatives (implemented via mutual inhibition), when the inhibition is strong relative to the leak. Our experiments replicate the primacy effect when participants must be prepared to respond quickly at the end of a motion observation period. With less time pressure, however, the primacy effect is much weaker. For 2 (out of 10) participants, a primacy bias observed in trials where the motion observation period is short becomes weaker or reverses (becoming a recency effect) as the observation period lengthens. Our simulation studies show that primacy is equally consistent with the LCA or with BD. The transition from primacy-to-recency can also be captured by the LCA but not by BD. Individual differences and relations between the LCA and other models are discussed. PMID:22701399

Three-dimensional numerical modeling of land subsidence in Shanghai, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Shujun; Luo, Yue; Wu, Jichun; Yan, Xuexin; Wang, Hanmei; Jiao, Xun; Teatini, Pietro

2016-05-01

Shanghai, in China, has experienced two periods of rapid land subsidence mainly caused by groundwater exploitation related to economic and population growth. The first period occurred during 1956-1965 and was characterized by an average land subsidence rate of 83 mm/yr, and the second period occurred during 1990-1998 with an average subsidence rate of 16 mm/yr. Owing to the establishment of monitoring networks for groundwater levels and land subsidence, a valuable dataset has been collected since the 1960s and used to develop regional land subsidence models applied to manage groundwater resources and mitigate land subsidence. The previous geomechanical modeling approaches to simulate land subsidence were based on one-dimensional (1D) vertical stress and deformation. In this study, a numerical model of land subsidence is developed to simulate explicitly coupled three-dimensional (3D) groundwater flow and 3D aquifer-system displacements in downtown Shanghai from 30 December 1979 to 30 December 1995. The model is calibrated using piezometric, geodetic-leveling, and borehole extensometer measurements made during the 16-year simulation period. The 3D model satisfactorily reproduces the measured piezometric and deformation observations. For the first time, the capability exists to provide some preliminary estimations on the horizontal displacement field associated with the well-known land subsidence in Shanghai and for which no measurements are available. The simulated horizontal displacements peak at 11 mm, i.e. less than 10 % of the simulated maximum land subsidence, and seems too small to seriously damage infrastructure such as the subways (metro lines) in the center area of Shanghai.

Ultra-Fast Hadronic Calorimetry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denisov, Dmitri; Lukić, Strahinja; Mokhov, Nikolai

2018-08-01

Calorimeters for particle physics experiments with integration time of a few ns will substantially improve the capability of the experiment to resolve event pileup and to reject backgrounds. In this paper the time development of hadronic showers induced by 30 and 60 GeV positive pions and 120 GeV protons is studied using Monte Carlo simulation and beam tests with a prototype of a sampling steel-scintillator hadronic calorimeter. In the beam tests, scintillator signals induced by hadronic showers in steel are sampled with a period of 0.2 ns and precisely time-aligned in order to study the average signal waveform at various locations with respectmore » to the beam particle impact. Simulations of the same setup are performed using the MARS15 code. Both simulation and test beam results suggest that energy deposition in steel calorimeters develop over a time shorter than 2 ns providing opportunity for ultra-fast calorimetry. Simulation results for an “ideal” calorimeter consisting exclusively of bulk tungsten or copper are presented to establish the lower limit of the signal integration window.« less

Ultra-Fast Hadronic Calorimetry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denisov, Dmitri; Lukić, Strahinja; Mokhov, Nikolai

2017-12-18

Calorimeters for particle physics experiments with integration time of a few ns will substantially improve the capability of the experiment to resolve event pileup and to reject backgrounds. In this paper time development of hadronic showers induced by 30 and 60 GeV positive pions and 120 GeV protons is studied using Monte Carlo simulation and beam tests with a prototype of a sampling steel-scintillator hadronic calorimeter. In the beam tests, scintillator signals induced by hadronic showers in steel are sampled with a period of 0.2 ns and precisely time-aligned in order to study the average signal waveform at various locationsmore » w.r.t. the beam particle impact. Simulations of the same setup are performed using the MARS15 code. Both simulation and test beam results suggest that energy deposition in steel calorimeters develop over a time shorter than 3 ns providing opportunity for ultra-fast calorimetry. Simulation results for an "ideal" calorimeter consisting exclusively of bulk tungsten or copper are presented to establish the lower limit of the signal integration window.« less

Ultra-fast hadronic calorimetry

DOE PAGES

Denisov, Dmitri; Lukic, Strahinja; Mokhov, Nikolai; ...

2018-05-08

Calorimeters for particle physics experiments with integration time of a few ns will substantially improve the capability of the experiment to resolve event pileup and to reject backgrounds. In this paper the time development of hadronic showers induced by 30 and 60 GeV positive pions and 120 GeV protons is studied using Monte Carlo simulation and beam tests with a prototype of a sampling steel-scintillator hadronic calorimeter. In the beam tests, scintillator signals induced by hadronic showers in steel are sampled with a period of 0.2 ns and precisely time-aligned in order to study the average signal waveform at various locations with respectmore » to the beam particle impact. Simulations of the same setup are performed using the MARS15 code. Both simulation and test beam results suggest that energy deposition in steel calorimeters develop over a time shorter than 2 ns providing opportunity for ultra-fast calorimetry. As a result, simulation results for an “ideal” calorimeter consisting exclusively of bulk tungsten or copper are presented to establish the lower limit of the signal integration window.« less

Research on Collaborative Technology in Distributed Virtual Reality System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, ZhenJiang; Huang, JiJie; Li, Zhao; Wang, Lei; Cui, JiSheng; Tang, Zhi

2018-01-01

Distributed virtual reality technology applied to the joint training simulation needs the CSCW (Computer Supported Cooperative Work) terminal multicast technology to display and the HLA (high-level architecture) technology to ensure the temporal and spatial consistency of the simulation, in order to achieve collaborative display and collaborative computing. In this paper, the CSCW’s terminal multicast technology has been used to modify and expand the implementation framework of HLA. During the simulation initialization period, this paper has used the HLA statement and object management service interface to establish and manage the CSCW network topology, and used the HLA data filtering mechanism for each federal member to establish the corresponding Mesh tree. During the simulation running period, this paper has added a new thread for the RTI and the CSCW real-time multicast interactive technology into the RTI, so that the RTI can also use the window message mechanism to notify the application update the display screen. Through many applications of submerged simulation training in substation under the operation of large power grid, it is shown that this paper has achieved satisfactory training effect on the collaborative technology used in distributed virtual reality simulation.

Ferruleless coupled-cavity traveling-wave tube cold-test characteristics simulated with micro-SOS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schroeder, Dana L.; Wilson, Jeffrey D.

1993-01-01

The three-dimensional, electromagnetic circuit analysis code, Micro-SOS, can be used to reduce expensive and time consuming experimental 'cold-testing' of traveling-wave tube (TWT) circuits. The frequency-phase dispersion and beam interaction impedance characteristics of a ferruleless coupled-cavity traveling-wave tube slow-wave circuit were simulated using the code. Computer results agree closely with experimental data. Variations in the cavity geometry dimensions of period length and gap-to-period ratio were modeled. These variations can be used in velocity taper designs to reduce the radiofrequency (RF) phase velocity in synchronism with the decelerating electron beam. Such circuit designs can result in enhanced TWT power and efficiency.

Wave climate and trends along the eastern Chukchi Arctic Alaska coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, L.H.; Storlazzi, C.D.; Jensen, R.E.

2011-01-01

Due in large part to the difficulty of obtaining measurements in the Arctic, little is known about the wave climate along the coast of Arctic Alaska. In this study, numerical model simulations encompassing 40 years of wave hind-casts were used to assess mean and extreme wave conditions. Results indicate that the wave climate was strongly modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and that mean and extreme wave heights and periods exhibited increasing trends in both the sea and swell frequency bands over the time-period studied (1954-2004). Model simulations also indicate that the upward trend was not due to a decrease in the minimum icepack extent. ?? 2011 ASCE.

Bicentennial Era: Three Years to Go

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parsley, James F.; Olsen, Henry D.

1973-01-01

A time capsule, a sketch of events during the pre-Revolutionary War period of 1771-1776, a list of leading characters and a bibliography are offered as the basis for a re-enactment, role playing, simulation, and in-depth studies. (KM)

Impact of thermal time shift on wheat phenology and yield under warming climate in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Dengpan; Qi, Yongqing; Li, Zhiqiang; Wang, Rende; Moiwo, Juana P.; Liu, Fengshan

2017-03-01

Given climate change can potentially influence crop phenology and subsequent yield, an investigation of relevant adaptation measures could increase the understanding and mitigation of these responses in the future. In this study, field observations at 10 stations in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China (HHHP) are used in combination with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model to determine the effect of thermal time shift on the phenology and potential yield of wheat from 1981-2009. Warming climate speeds up winter wheat development and thereby decreases the duration of the wheat growth period. However, APSIM-Wheat model simulation suggests prolongation of the period from flowering to maturity (Gr) of winter wheat by 0.2-0.8 d•10yr-1 as the number of days by which maturity advances, which is less than that by which flowering advances. Based on computed thermal time of the two critical growth phases of wheat, total thermal time from floral initiation to flowering (TT_floral_initiation) increasesd in seven out of the 10 investigated stations. Alternatively, total thermal time from the start of grainfilling to maturity (TT_start_ grain_fill) increased in all investigated stations, except Laiyang. It is thus concluded that thermal time shift during the past three decades (1981-2009) prolongs Gr by 0.2-3.0 d•10yr-1 in the study area. This suggests that an increase in thermal time (TT) of the wheat growth period is critical for mitigating the effect of growth period reduction due to warming climatic condition. Furthermore, climate change reduces potential yield of winter wheat in 80% of the stations by 2.3-58.8 kg•yr-1. However, thermal time shift (TTS) increases potential yield of winter wheat in most of the stations by 3.0-51.0 kg•yr-1. It is concluded that wheat cultivars with longer growth periods and higher thermal requirements could mitigate the negative effects of warming climate on crop production in the study area.

Parallel Decomposition of the Fictitious Lagrangian Algorithm and its Accuracy for Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Semiconductors.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, Mei-Ling

We have performed a parallel decomposition of the fictitious Lagrangian method for molecular dynamics with tight-binding total energy expression into the hypercube computer. This is the first time in literature that the dynamical simulation of semiconducting systems containing more than 512 silicon atoms has become possible with the electrons treated as quantum particles. With the utilization of the Intel Paragon system, our timing analysis predicts that our code is expected to perform realistic simulations on very large systems consisting of thousands of atoms with time requirements of the order of tens of hours. Timing results and performance analysis of our parallel code are presented in terms of calculation time, communication time, and setup time. The accuracy of the fictitious Lagrangian method in molecular dynamics simulation is also investigated, especially the energy conservation of the total energy of ions. We find that the accuracy of the fictitious Lagrangian scheme in small silicon cluster and very large silicon system simulations is good for as long as the simulations proceed, even though we quench the electronic coordinates to the Born-Oppenheimer surface only in the beginning of the run. The kinetic energy of electrons does not increase as time goes on, and the energy conservation of the ionic subsystem remains very good. This means that, as far as the ionic subsystem is concerned, the electrons are on the average in the true quantum ground states. We also tie up some odds and ends regarding a few remaining questions about the fictitious Lagrangian method, such as the difference between the results obtained from the Gram-Schmidt and SHAKE method of orthonormalization, and differences between simulations where the electrons are quenched to the Born -Oppenheimer surface only once compared with periodic quenching.

Physiological and performance effects of carbohydrate gels consumed prior to the extra-time period of prolonged simulated soccer match-play.

PubMed

Harper, Liam D; Briggs, Marc A; McNamee, Ged; West, Daniel J; Kilduff, Liam P; Stevenson, Emma; Russell, Mark

2016-06-01

The physiological and performance effects of carbohydrate-electrolyte gels consumed before the 30min extra-time period of prolonged soccer-specific exercise were investigated. Randomised, double-blind, crossover. Eight English Premier League academy soccer players performed 120min of soccer-specific exercise on two occasions while consuming fluid-electrolyte beverages before exercise, at half-time and 90min. Carbohydrate-electrolyte (0.7±0.1gkg(-1) BM) or energy-free placebo gels were consumed ∼5min before extra-time. Blood samples were taken before exercise, at half-time and every 15min during exercise. Physical (15-m and 30-m sprint speed, 30-m sprint maintenance and countermovement jump height) and technical (soccer dribbling) performance was assessed throughout each trial. Carbohydrate-electrolyte gels improved dribbling precision (+29±20%) and raised blood glucose concentrations by 0.7±0.8mmoll(-1) during extra-time (both p<0.01). Supplementation did not affect sprint velocities (15m and 30m), 30-m sprint maintenance or dribbling speed as reductions compared to 0-15min values occurred at 105-120min irrespective of trial (all p<0.05). Plasma osmolality and blood sodium concentrations increased post-exercise vs. the opening 15min (p<0.05) but no effect of supplementation existed. Selected markers of physical performance (jump height, 30-m sprint velocity and 30-m repeated sprint maintenance) also reduced by >3% during half-time (all p<0.05). Carbohydrate-electrolyte gel ingestion raised blood glucose concentrations and improved dribbling performance during the extra-time period of simulated soccer match-play. Supplementation did not attenuate reductions in physical performance and hydration status that occurred during extra-time. Copyright © 2015 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling of Future Changes in Seasonal Snowpack and Impacts on Summer Low Flows in Alpine Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenicek, Michal; Seibert, Jan; Staudinger, Maria

2018-01-01

It is expected that an increasing proportion of the precipitation will fall as rain in alpine catchments in the future. Consequently, snow storage is expected to decrease, which, together with changes in snowmelt rates and timing, might cause reductions in spring and summer low flows. The objectives of this study were (1) to simulate the effect of changing snow storage on low flows during the warm seasons and (2) to relate drought sensitivity to the simulated snow storage changes at different elevations. The Swiss Climate Change Scenarios 2011 data set was used to derive future changes in air temperature and precipitation. A typical bucket-type catchment model, HBV-light, was applied to 14 mountain catchments in Switzerland to simulate streamflow and snow in the reference period and three future periods. The largest relative decrease in annual maximum SWE was simulated for elevations below 2,200 m a.s.l. (60-75% for the period 2070-2099) and the snowmelt season shifted by up to 4 weeks earlier. The relative decrease in spring and summer minimum runoff that was caused by the relative decrease in maximum SWE (i.e., elasticity), reached 40-90% in most of catchments for the reference period and decreased for the future periods. This decreasing elasticity indicated that the effect of snow on summer low flows is reduced in the future. The fraction of snowmelt runoff in summer decreased by more than 50% at the highest elevations and almost disappeared at the lowest elevations. This might have large implications on water availability during the summer.

Synchronization of Heterogeneous Oscillators by Noninvasive Time-Delayed Cross Coupling.

PubMed

Jüngling, Thomas; Fischer, Ingo; Schöll, Eckehard; Just, Wolfram

2015-11-06

We demonstrate that nonidentical systems, in particular, nonlinear oscillators with different time scales, can be synchronized if a mutual coupling via time-delayed control signals is implemented. Each oscillator settles on an unstable state, say a fixed point or an unstable periodic orbit, with a coupling force which vanishes in the long time limit. We present the underlying theoretical considerations and numerical simulations, and, moreover, demonstrate the concept experimentally in nonlinear electronic oscillators.

Choosing appropriate analysis methods for cluster randomised cross-over trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Morgan, Katy E; Forbes, Andrew B; Keogh, Ruth H; Jairath, Vipul; Kahan, Brennan C

2017-01-30

In cluster randomised cross-over (CRXO) trials, clusters receive multiple treatments in a randomised sequence over time. In such trials, there is usual correlation between patients in the same cluster. In addition, within a cluster, patients in the same period may be more similar to each other than to patients in other periods. We demonstrate that it is necessary to account for these correlations in the analysis to obtain correct Type I error rates. We then use simulation to compare different methods of analysing a binary outcome from a two-period CRXO design. Our simulations demonstrated that hierarchical models without random effects for period-within-cluster, which do not account for any extra within-period correlation, performed poorly with greatly inflated Type I errors in many scenarios. In scenarios where extra within-period correlation was present, a hierarchical model with random effects for cluster and period-within-cluster only had correct Type I errors when there were large numbers of clusters; with small numbers of clusters, the error rate was inflated. We also found that generalised estimating equations did not give correct error rates in any scenarios considered. An unweighted cluster-level summary regression performed best overall, maintaining an error rate close to 5% for all scenarios, although it lost power when extra within-period correlation was present, especially for small numbers of clusters. Results from our simulation study show that it is important to model both levels of clustering in CRXO trials, and that any extra within-period correlation should be accounted for. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Runtime visualization of the human arterial tree.

PubMed

Insley, Joseph A; Papka, Michael E; Dong, Suchuan; Karniadakis, George; Karonis, Nicholas T

2007-01-01

Large-scale simulation codes typically execute for extended periods of time and often on distributed computational resources. Because these simulations can run for hours, or even days, scientists like to get feedback about the state of the computation and the validity of its results as it runs. It is also important that these capabilities be made available with little impact on the performance and stability of the simulation. Visualizing and exploring data in the early stages of the simulation can help scientists identify problems early, potentially avoiding a situation where a simulation runs for several days, only to discover that an error with an input parameter caused both time and resources to be wasted. We describe an application that aids in the monitoring and analysis of a simulation of the human arterial tree. The application provides researchers with high-level feedback about the state of the ongoing simulation and enables them to investigate particular areas of interest in greater detail. The application also offers monitoring information about the amount of data produced and data transfer performance among the various components of the application.

Structural, thermodynamic, and electrical properties of polar fluids and ionic solutions on a hypersphere: Results of simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caillol, J. M.; Levesque, D.

1992-01-01

The reliability and the efficiency of a new method suitable for the simulations of dielectric fluids and ionic solutions is established by numerical computations. The efficiency depends on the use of a simulation cell which is the surface of a four-dimensional sphere. The reliability originates from a charge-charge potential solution of the Poisson equation in this confining volume. The computation time, for systems of a few hundred molecules, is reduced by a factor of 2 or 3 compared to this of a simulation performed in a cubic volume with periodic boundary conditions and the Ewald charge-charge potential.

Numerical 3D modelling of oil dispersion in the sea due to different accident scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guandalini, Roberto; Agate, Giordano; Moia, Fabio

2017-04-01

The purpose of the study has been the development of a methodology, based on a numerical 3D approach, for the analysis of oil dispersion in the sea, in order to simulate with a high level of accuracy the dynamic behavior of the oil plume and its displacement in the environment. As a matter of fact, the numerical simulation is the only approach currently able to analyse in detail possible accident scenarios, even with an high degree of complexity, of different type and intensity, allowing to follow their evolution both in time and space, and to evaluate the effectiveness of suggested prevention or recovery actions. The software for these calculations is therefore an essential tool in order to simulate the impact effects in the short, medium and long period, able to account for the complexity of the sea system involved in the dispersion process and its dependency on the meteorological, marine and morphological local conditions. This software, generally based on fluid dynamic 3D simulators and modellers, is therefore extremely specialized and requires expertise for an appropriate usage, but at the same time it allows detailed scenario analyses and design verifications. It takes into account different parameters as the sea current field and its turbulence, the wind acting on the sea surface, the salinity and temperature gradients, the local coastal morphology, the seabed bathymetry and the tide. The applied methodology is based on the Integrated Fluid Dynamic Simulation System HyperSuite developed by RSE. This simulation system includes the consideration of all the parameters previously listed, in the frame of a 3D Eulerian finite element fluid dynamic model, which accuracy is guaranteed by a very detailed spatial mesh and by an automatically optimized time step management. In order to assess the methodology features, an area of more than 2500 km2 and depth of 200 m located in the middle Adriatic Sea has been modelled. The information required for the simulation in different environmental conditions, have been collected from RSE proprietary and public databases directly connected to the model. Finally, the possible pollution source has been chosen in correspondence with the offshore drilling wells for the exploitation of the "Ombrina Mare" oil field, located at a distance of 6 km from the coast, and the project includes a FPSO unit. A number of different scenarios have been simulated using the 3D model created by HyperSuite, in different environmental conditions and considering emission events of low intensity and long period or of high intensity and short period, located near the sea surface or near the sea bottom. For each scenario, a preliminary initialization in the fluid dynamic unperturbed conditions at the starting date has been carried out, from which the emission period followed by a properly duration of diffusion period of the pollutant has been simulated. The results allowed to evaluate the relevance of the effects due to the environmental parameters as the wind, sea current and tide, putting in evidence the capability of the methodology to support the safety requirements in the frame of off shore oil exploitation provided that a dynamic characterization of the environment parameters is accounted for a sufficient detail.

Removal targets' classification: How time considerations modify the definition of the index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zemoura, Mélissa; Hanada, Toshiya; Kawamoto, Satomi

2017-09-01

The growth of the near-Earth debris population since the beginning of human space activities is now a fact commonly admitted by space agencies worldwide. Numerous entities have warned about the danger that debris may have over time. Presently mitigation methods such as imposing post-mission disposal time after launch will no longer be sufficient; remediation processes seem necessary to limit the increase. In particular, this phenomenon is attributed to the generation of fragments due to more and more on-orbit collisions. Therefore, investigations on indexes to select potential removal targets were recently conducted, considering solely objects implicated in a collision course. This study also looks at the multiple fragmentation factors, including time through the altitude at time of impact (due to the behaviour of debris re-entering with time). The focal point is here to compare different criteria to select removal targets that enable scenarios in best adequacy with the future in question (long term, mid term or short term). Aware of the uncertainty of evolutionary models, this study also incorporates the simulation method as an impactful factor and tries to overcome the potential randomness of the results. Therefore, this paper presents a way to establish a selection criterion the most adequate for the time period focused on. In order to solve this issue, a ;double-check; method is proposed. First, an analytical evolutionary model simulates the environment over 100 years, through 100 Monte-Carlo runs. Then, among the initial population of year 2009, the objects supposed to be at the origin of the debris detected at a given time are tracked back in time into the simulations, using a collision-detecting program. The ;given period; above mentioned for the presence of debris is based on a future as such that 2029 be considered a short-term scenario, 2059 a midterm scenario and 2109 a long-term scenario. This step produces three lists of targets for removal (one for each future), and simulations are run once again, through different scenarios involving the removal of particular listed targets in order to verify the appropriateness of the proposed scenarios. The analysis of the results is based both on the mean of the simulations and on the recurrence considering each run. Three studies were conducted one for each term, and a fourth one completed the work by establishing comparison between short, mid and long-term periods. As a result, three main criteria could be established: the altitude of the objects, the number of targets necessary to remove, and the phenomenon of chain collisions. According to the future that was investigated, the most adequate criterion appeared to be different, consisting in the number of objects in the long-term analysis or the ranking position at short term (linked to the close-time consideration). As a main conclusion and further perspectives, it should be more efficient to consider the collision-probability and mass product together with the time-depending generation of fragments. This would help increasing the precision in the prediction of collision impacts. Rather than pinpointing specified targets to be removed, the aim of this study is simply to understand the mechanisms at the origin of the population increase around the Earth. Also to demonstrate that a careful definition of selection criteria would enable to adopt a suitable removal process in the period of action or for the goal to be reached.

Assessment of Simulated Ground Motions in Earthquake Engineering Practice: A Case Study for Duzce (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh; Askan, Aysegul; Yakut, Ahmet

2017-09-01

Simulated ground motions can be used in structural and earthquake engineering practice as an alternative to or to augment the real ground motion data sets. Common engineering applications of simulated motions are linear and nonlinear time history analyses of building structures, where full acceleration records are necessary. Before using simulated ground motions in such applications, it is important to assess those in terms of their frequency and amplitude content as well as their match with the corresponding real records. In this study, a framework is outlined for assessment of simulated ground motions in terms of their use in structural engineering. Misfit criteria are determined for both ground motion parameters and structural response by comparing the simulated values against the corresponding real values. For this purpose, as a case study, the 12 November 1999 Duzce earthquake is simulated using stochastic finite-fault methodology. Simulated records are employed for time history analyses of frame models of typical residential buildings. Next, the relationships between ground motion misfits and structural response misfits are studied. Results show that the seismological misfits around the fundamental period of selected buildings determine the accuracy of the simulated responses in terms of their agreement with the observed responses.

Understanding the past to interpret the future: Comparison of simulated groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River basin (USA) using observed and general-circulation-model historical climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Pruitt, Tom

2017-01-01

In evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources, water managers seek to understand how future conditions may differ from the recent past. Studies of climate impacts on groundwater recharge often compare simulated recharge from future and historical time periods on an average monthly or overall average annual basis, or compare average recharge from future decades to that from a single recent decade. Baseline historical recharge estimates, which are compared with future conditions, are often from simulations using observed historical climate data. Comparison of average monthly results, average annual results, or even averaging over selected historical decades, may mask the true variability in historical results and lead to misinterpretation of future conditions. Comparison of future recharge results simulated using general circulation model (GCM) climate data to recharge results simulated using actual historical climate data may also result in an incomplete understanding of the likelihood of future changes. In this study, groundwater recharge is estimated in the upper Colorado River basin, USA, using a distributed-parameter soil-water balance groundwater recharge model for the period 1951–2010. Recharge simulations are performed using precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from observed climate data and from 97 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) projections. Results indicate that average monthly and average annual simulated recharge are similar using observed and GCM climate data. However, 10-year moving-average recharge results show substantial differences between observed and simulated climate data, particularly during period 1970–2000, with much greater variability seen for results using observed climate data.

Comparison of two fractal interpolation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Yang; Zheng, Zeyu; Xiao, Rui; Shi, Haibo

2017-03-01

As a tool for studying complex shapes and structures in nature, fractal theory plays a critical role in revealing the organizational structure of the complex phenomenon. Numerous fractal interpolation methods have been proposed over the past few decades, but they differ substantially in the form features and statistical properties. In this study, we simulated one- and two-dimensional fractal surfaces by using the midpoint displacement method and the Weierstrass-Mandelbrot fractal function method, and observed great differences between the two methods in the statistical characteristics and autocorrelation features. From the aspect of form features, the simulations of the midpoint displacement method showed a relatively flat surface which appears to have peaks with different height as the fractal dimension increases. While the simulations of the Weierstrass-Mandelbrot fractal function method showed a rough surface which appears to have dense and highly similar peaks as the fractal dimension increases. From the aspect of statistical properties, the peak heights from the Weierstrass-Mandelbrot simulations are greater than those of the middle point displacement method with the same fractal dimension, and the variances are approximately two times larger. When the fractal dimension equals to 1.2, 1.4, 1.6, and 1.8, the skewness is positive with the midpoint displacement method and the peaks are all convex, but for the Weierstrass-Mandelbrot fractal function method the skewness is both positive and negative with values fluctuating in the vicinity of zero. The kurtosis is less than one with the midpoint displacement method, and generally less than that of the Weierstrass-Mandelbrot fractal function method. The autocorrelation analysis indicated that the simulation of the midpoint displacement method is not periodic with prominent randomness, which is suitable for simulating aperiodic surface. While the simulation of the Weierstrass-Mandelbrot fractal function method has strong periodicity, which is suitable for simulating periodic surface.

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jungclaus, Johann H.; Bard, Edouard; Baroni, Mélanie; Braconnot, Pascale; Cao, Jian; Chini, Louise P.; Egorova, Tania; Evans, Michael; Fidel González-Rouco, J.; Goosse, Hugues; Hurtt, George C.; Joos, Fortunat; Kaplan, Jed O.; Khodri, Myriam; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Krivova, Natalie; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Lorenz, Stephan J.; Luterbacher, Jürg; Man, Wenmin; Maycock, Amanda C.; Meinshausen, Malte; Moberg, Anders; Muscheler, Raimund; Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph; Otto-Bliesner, Bette I.; Phipps, Steven J.; Pongratz, Julia; Rozanov, Eugene; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Schmidt, Hauke; Schmutz, Werner; Schurer, Andrew; Shapiro, Alexander I.; Sigl, Michael; Smerdon, Jason E.; Solanki, Sami K.; Timmreck, Claudia; Toohey, Matthew; Usoskin, Ilya G.; Wagner, Sebastian; Wu, Chi-Ju; Leng Yeo, Kok; Zanchettin, Davide; Zhang, Qiong; Zorita, Eduardo

2017-11-01

The pre-industrial millennium is among the periods selected by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) for experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the fourth phase of the PMIP (PMIP4). The past1000 transient simulations serve to investigate the response to (mainly) natural forcing under background conditions not too different from today, and to discriminate between forced and internally generated variability on interannual to centennial timescales. This paper describes the motivation and the experimental set-ups for the PMIP4-CMIP6 past1000 simulations, and discusses the forcing agents orbital, solar, volcanic, and land use/land cover changes, and variations in greenhouse gas concentrations. The past1000 simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium from 850 Common Era (CE) to 1849 CE have to be complemented by historical simulations (1850 to 2014 CE) following the CMIP6 protocol. The external forcings for the past1000 experiments have been adapted to provide a seamless transition across these time periods. Protocols for the past1000 simulations have been divided into three tiers. A default forcing data set has been defined for the Tier 1 (the CMIP6 past1000) experiment. However, the PMIP community has maintained the flexibility to conduct coordinated sensitivity experiments to explore uncertainty in forcing reconstructions as well as parameter uncertainty in dedicated Tier 2 simulations. Additional experiments (Tier 3) are defined to foster collaborative model experiments focusing on the early instrumental period and to extend the temporal range and the scope of the simulations. This paper outlines current and future research foci and common analyses for collaborative work between the PMIP and the observational communities (reconstructions, instrumental data).

3D mapping and simulation of Geneva Lake environmental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villard, Roch; Maignan, Michel; Kanevski, Mikhail; Rapin, Francois; Klein, Audrey

2010-05-01

The Geneva Lake is the biggest alpine and subalpine lake in central Europe. The depth of this lake is 309 meters and its total volume of water is 89 billions m3. It takes, on average, around twelve years so that waters of the lake are completely brewed. Furthermore the Geneva lake waters are rich in dissolved substances as carbonate, sulfate. The quantity of particles in suspension in the lake, which mainly arrived from the Rhône, is nowadays around height million of tones. The International Commission for the Leman Lake (CIPEL) works about the improvement of the quality of this lake since 1962. In the present study three dimensional environmental data (temperature, oxygen and nitrate) which cover the period from 1954 to 2008, for a total of 27'500 cases are investigated. We are interested to study the evolution of the temperature of the lake because there is an impact on the reproduction of fishes and also because the winter brewing of the water makes the re-oxygenation of deep-water. In order that biological balance is maintained in a lake, there must be enough oxygen in the water. Moreover, we work on nitrate distribution and evolution because contributions in fertilizers cause eutrophication of lake. The data are very numerous when we consider the time series, some of them with more than 300 occurrences, but there are between 2 and 15 data available for spatial cartography. The basic methodology used for the analysis, mapping and simulations of 3D patterns of environmental data is based on geostatistical predictions (family of kriging models) and conditional stochastic simulations. Spatial and temporal variability, 3D monitoring networks changing over time, make this study challenging. An important problem is also to make interpolation/simulations over a long period of time, like ten years. One way used to overcome this problem, consists in using a weighted average of ten variograms during this period. 3D mapping was carried out using environment data for several depths. Applying all data comprehensive analysis both in space and in time was performed. The evolution of the distribution of environmental parameters and their difference in space between two periods and also several times series were studied. Furthermore with the analysis of temporal measurements depending on spatial coordinates (x, y, z) the trends, periodicity, and seasonal variation or cycles were evaluated. First results demonstrate no global warming in such environment. However certain currents and their evolution in the lake were identified. Then, we can see the movement of cold and hot waters in the lake during time and in space. A main question posed by ecologists is: is there any global warming of the lake? According to the results based on date 1954-1980, no global warming either of the "Small Lake" (Geneva) or the whole lake was put into evidence. However the temperatures of the different parts of the lake vary from one year to another year with significant differences of warming, respectively cooling of different areas and at different depths. The graphical representations of time series of temperature at one location for different depths show clearly the annual rhythm and also other frequencies (11 years). The historical well known "cold years" are well identified. At some years, one can observe an inversion of temperature when the cold water in the depth comes upwards to the surface. Spatial patterns are also found for the nitrate content in water. The future developments deal with multivariate analysis and simulations of environmental and pollution data in the lake.

A hybrid-domain approach for modeling climate data time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Qiuzi H.; Wang, Xiaolan L.; Wong, Augustine

2011-09-01

In order to model climate data time series that often contain periodic variations, trends, and sudden changes in mean (mean shifts, mostly artificial), this study proposes a hybrid-domain (HD) algorithm, which incorporates a time domain test and a newly developed frequency domain test through an iterative procedure that is analogue to the well known backfitting algorithm. A two-phase competition procedure is developed to address the confounding issue between modeling periodic variations and mean shifts. A variety of distinctive features of climate data time series, including trends, periodic variations, mean shifts, and a dependent noise structure, can be modeled in tandem using the HD algorithm. This is particularly important for homogenization of climate data from a low density observing network in which reference series are not available to help preserve climatic trends and long-term periodic variations, preventing them from being mistaken as artificial shifts. The HD algorithm is also powerful in estimating trend and periodicity in a homogeneous data time series (i.e., in the absence of any mean shift). The performance of the HD algorithm (in terms of false alarm rate and hit rate in detecting shifts/cycles, and estimation accuracy) is assessed via a simulation study. Its power is further illustrated through its application to a few climate data time series.

Space-charge-sustained microbunch structure in the Los Alamos Proton Storage Ring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cousineau, S.; Danilov, V.; Holmes, J.; Macek, R.

2004-09-01

We present experimental data from the Los Alamos Proton Storage Ring (PSR) showing long-lived linac microbunch structure during beam storage with no rf bunching. Analysis of the experimental data and particle-in-cell simulations of the experiments indicate that space charge, coupled with energy spread effects, is responsible for the sustained microbunch structure. The simulated longitudinal phase space of the beam reveals a well-defined separatrix in the phase space between linac microbunches, with particles executing unbounded motion outside of the separatrix. We show that the longitudinal phase space of the beam was near steady state during the PSR experiments, such that the separatrix persisted for long periods of time. Our simulations indicate that the steady state is very sensitive to the experimental conditions. Finally, we solve the steady-state problem in an analytic, self-consistent fashion for a set of periodic longitudinal space-charge potentials.

Simulation models examining the effect of Brugian filariasis on dengue epidemics.

PubMed

Vaughan, Jefferson A; Focks, Dana A; Turell, Michael J

2009-01-01

Concurrent ingestion of microfilariae (mf) and arboviruses by mosquitoes can enhance the transmission of virus compared with when virus is ingested alone. We studied the effect of mf enhancement on the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of dengue 1 virus within Aedes aegypti mosquitoes by feeding mosquitoes on blood that either contained virus plus Brugia malayi mf or virus only. Mosquitoes were sampled over time to determine viral dissemination rates. Co-ingestion of mf and virus reduced viral EIP by over half. We used the computer simulation program, DENSiM, to compare the predicted patterns of dengue incidence that would result from such a shortened EIP versus the EIP derived from the control (i.e., virus only) group of mosquitoes. Results indicated that, over the 14-year simulation period, mf-induced acceleration of the EIP would generate more frequent (but not necessarily more severe) epidemics. Potential interactions between arboviruses and hematozoans deserve closer scrutiny.

Minimizing patient waiting time in emergency department of public hospital using simulation optimization approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Ireen Munira; Liong, Choong-Yeun; Bakar, Sakhinah Abu; Ahmad, Norazura; Najmuddin, Ahmad Farid

2017-04-01

Emergency department (ED) is the main unit of a hospital that provides emergency treatment. Operating 24 hours a day with limited number of resources invites more problems to the current chaotic situation in some hospitals in Malaysia. Delays in getting treatments that caused patients to wait for a long period of time are among the frequent complaints against government hospitals. Therefore, the ED management needs a model that can be used to examine and understand resource capacity which can assist the hospital managers to reduce patients waiting time. Simulation model was developed based on 24 hours data collection. The model developed using Arena simulation replicates the actual ED's operations of a public hospital in Selangor, Malaysia. The OptQuest optimization in Arena is used to find the possible combinations of a number of resources that can minimize patients waiting time while increasing the number of patients served. The simulation model was modified for improvement based on results from OptQuest. The improvement model significantly improves ED's efficiency with an average of 32% reduction in average patients waiting times and 25% increase in the total number of patients served.

Constant pressure and temperature discrete-time Langevin molecular dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grønbech-Jensen, Niels; Farago, Oded

2014-11-01

We present a new and improved method for simultaneous control of temperature and pressure in molecular dynamics simulations with periodic boundary conditions. The thermostat-barostat equations are built on our previously developed stochastic thermostat, which has been shown to provide correct statistical configurational sampling for any time step that yields stable trajectories. Here, we extend the method and develop a set of discrete-time equations of motion for both particle dynamics and system volume in order to seek pressure control that is insensitive to the choice of the numerical time step. The resulting method is simple, practical, and efficient. The method is demonstrated through direct numerical simulations of two characteristic model systems—a one-dimensional particle chain for which exact statistical results can be obtained and used as benchmarks, and a three-dimensional system of Lennard-Jones interacting particles simulated in both solid and liquid phases. The results, which are compared against the method of Kolb and Dünweg [J. Chem. Phys. 111, 4453 (1999)], show that the new method behaves according to the objective, namely that acquired statistical averages and fluctuations of configurational measures are accurate and robust against the chosen time step applied to the simulation.

Three-Dimensional Unsteady Simulation of a Modern High Pressure Turbine Stage Using Phase Lag Periodicity: Analysis of Flow and Heat Transfer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shyam, Vikram; Ameri, Ali; Luk, Daniel F.; Chen, Jen-Ping

2010-01-01

Unsteady three-dimensional RANS simulations have been performed on a highly loaded transonic turbine stage and results are compared to steady calculations as well as experiment. A low Reynolds number k- turbulence model is employed to provide closure for the RANS system. A phase-lag boundary condition is used in the periodic direction. This allows the unsteady simulation to be performed by using only one blade from each of the two rows. The objective of this paper is to study the effect of unsteadiness on rotor heat transfer and to glean any insight into unsteady flow physics. The role of the stator wake passing on the pressure distribution at the leading edge is also studied. The simulated heat transfer and pressure results agreed favorably with experiment. The time-averaged heat transfer predicted by the unsteady simulation is higher than the heat transfer predicted by the steady simulation everywhere except at the leading edge. The shock structure formed due to stator-rotor interaction was analyzed. Heat transfer and pressure at the hub and casing were also studied. Thermal segregation was observed that leads to the heat transfer patterns predicted by steady and unsteady simulations to be different.

Direct-Numerical and Large-Eddy Simulations of a Non-Equilibrium Turbulent Kolmogorov Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodruff, S. L.; Shebalin, J. V.; Hussaini, M. Y.

1999-01-01

A non-equilibrium form of turbulent Kolmogorov flow is set up by making an instantaneous change in the amplitude of the spatially-periodic forcing. It is found that the response of the flow to this instantaneous change becomes more dramatic as the wavenumber of the forcing is increased, and, at the same time, that the faithfulness with which the large-eddy-simulation results agree with the direct-numerical results decreases.

Simulations of Eurasian winter temperature trends in coupled and uncoupled CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collow, Thomas W.; Wang, Wanqiu; Kumar, Arun

2018-01-01

Conflicting results have been presented regarding the link between Arctic sea-ice loss and midlatitude cooling, particularly over Eurasia. This study analyzes uncoupled (atmosphere-only) and coupled (ocean-atmosphere) simulations by the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), to examine this linkage during the Northern Hemisphere winter, focusing on the simulation of the observed surface cooling trend over Eurasia during the last three decades. The uncoupled simulations are Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs forced with mean seasonal cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice, using combinations of SST and sea ice from different time periods to assess the role that each plays individually, and to assess the role of atmospheric internal variability. Coupled runs are used to further investigate the role of internal variability via the analysis of initialized predictions and the evolution of the forecast with lead time. The AMIP simulations show a mean warming response over Eurasia due to SST changes, but little response to changes in sea ice. Individual runs simulate cooler periods over Eurasia, and this is shown to be concurrent with a stronger Siberian high and warming over Greenland. No substantial differences in the variability of Eurasian surface temperatures are found between the different model configurations. In the coupled runs, the region of significant warming over Eurasia is small at short leads, but increases at longer leads. It is concluded that, although the models have some capability in highlighting the temperature variability over Eurasia, the observed cooling may still be a consequence of internal variability.

Prediction, time variance, and classification of hydraulic response to recharge in two karst aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Andrew J.; Mahler, Barbara J.

2013-01-01

Many karst aquifers are rapidly filled and depleted and therefore are likely to be susceptible to changes in short-term climate variability. Here we explore methods that could be applied to model site-specific hydraulic responses, with the intent of simulating these responses to different climate scenarios from high-resolution climate models. We compare hydraulic responses (spring flow, groundwater level, stream base flow, and cave drip) at several sites in two karst aquifers: the Edwards aquifer (Texas, USA) and the Madison aquifer (South Dakota, USA). A lumped-parameter model simulates nonlinear soil moisture changes for estimation of recharge, and a time-variant convolution model simulates the aquifer response to this recharge. Model fit to data is 2.4% better for calibration periods than for validation periods according to the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency, which ranges from 0.53 to 0.94 for validation periods. We use metrics that describe the shapes of the impulse-response functions (IRFs) obtained from convolution modeling to make comparisons in the distribution of response times among sites and between aquifers. Time-variant IRFs were applied to 62% of the sites. Principal component analysis (PCA) of metrics describing the shapes of the IRFs indicates three principal components that together account for 84% of the variability in IRF shape: the first is related to IRF skewness and temporal spread and accounts for 51% of the variability; the second and third largely are related to time-variant properties and together account for 33% of the variability. Sites with IRFs that dominantly comprise exponential curves are separated geographically from those dominantly comprising lognormal curves in both aquifers as a result of spatial heterogeneity. The use of multiple IRF metrics in PCA is a novel method to characterize, compare, and classify the way in which different sites and aquifers respond to recharge. As convolution models are developed for additional aquifers, they could contribute to an IRF database and a general classification system for karst aquifers.

14 CFR 142.15 - Facilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... adequate periods of time and at a location approved by the Administrator, adequate flight training equipment and courseware, including at least one flight simulator or advanced flight training device. [Doc... significant distractions caused by flight operations and maintenance operations at the airport. (b) An...

14 CFR 142.15 - Facilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... adequate periods of time and at a location approved by the Administrator, adequate flight training equipment and courseware, including at least one flight simulator or advanced flight training device. [Doc... significant distractions caused by flight operations and maintenance operations at the airport. (b) An...

14 CFR 142.15 - Facilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... adequate periods of time and at a location approved by the Administrator, adequate flight training equipment and courseware, including at least one flight simulator or advanced flight training device. [Doc... significant distractions caused by flight operations and maintenance operations at the airport. (b) An...

14 CFR 142.15 - Facilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... adequate periods of time and at a location approved by the Administrator, adequate flight training equipment and courseware, including at least one flight simulator or advanced flight training device. [Doc... significant distractions caused by flight operations and maintenance operations at the airport. (b) An...

Examining Extreme Events Using Dynamically Downscaled 12-km WRF Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Continued improvements in the speed and availability of computational resources have allowed dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) projections to be conducted at increasingly finer grid scales and over extended time periods. The implementation of dynamical downscal...

Forecasting the Relative and Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on At-risk Populations

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-01

Vitals (observed vital rates), Movement, Ranges, Barriers (barrier interactions), Stochasticity (a time series of stochasticity indices...Simulation Viewer are themselves stochastic . They can change each time it is run. B. 196 Analysis If multiple Census events are present in the life...30-year period. A monthly time series was generated for the 20th-century using monthly anomalies for temperature, precipitation, and percent

Simulation of air quality and operational cost to ventilate swine farrowing facilities in Midwest U.S. during winter

PubMed Central

Park, Jae Hong; Peters, Thomas M.; Altmaier, Ralph; Jones, Samuel M.; Gassman, Richard; Anthony, T. Renée

2017-01-01

We have developed a time-dependent simulation model to estimate in-room concentrations of multiple contaminants [ammonia (NH3), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and dust] as a function of increased ventilation with filtered recirculation for swine farrowing facilities. Energy and mass balance equations were used to simulate the indoor air quality (IAQ) and operational cost for a variety of ventilation conditions over a 3-month winter period for a facility located in the Midwest U.S., using simplified and real-time production parameters, comparing results to field data. A revised model was improved by minimizing the sum of squared errors (SSE) between modeled and measured NH3 and CO2. After optimizing NH3 and CO2, other IAQ results from the simulation were compared to field measurements using linear regression. For NH3, the coefficient of determination (R2) for simulation results and field measurements improved from 0.02 with the original model to 0.37 with the new model. For CO2, the R2 for simulation results and field measurements was 0.49 with the new model. When the makeup air was matched to hallway air CO2 concentrations (1,500 ppm), simulation results showed the smallest SSE. With the new model, the R2 for other contaminants were 0.34 for inhalable dust, 0.36 for respirable dust, and 0.26 for CO. Operation of the air cleaner decreased inhalable dust by 35% and respirable dust concentrations by 33%, while having no effect on NH3, CO2, in agreement with field data, and increasing operational cost by $860 (58%) for the three-month period. PMID:28775911

Centralized Networks to Generate Human Body Motions

PubMed Central

Vakulenko, Sergei; Radulescu, Ovidiu; Morozov, Ivan

2017-01-01

We consider continuous-time recurrent neural networks as dynamical models for the simulation of human body motions. These networks consist of a few centers and many satellites connected to them. The centers evolve in time as periodical oscillators with different frequencies. The center states define the satellite neurons’ states by a radial basis function (RBF) network. To simulate different motions, we adjust the parameters of the RBF networks. Our network includes a switching module that allows for turning from one motion to another. Simulations show that this model allows us to simulate complicated motions consisting of many different dynamical primitives. We also use the model for learning human body motion from markers’ trajectories. We find that center frequencies can be learned from a small number of markers and can be transferred to other markers, such that our technique seems to be capable of correcting for missing information resulting from sparse control marker settings. PMID:29240694

Centralized Networks to Generate Human Body Motions.

PubMed

Vakulenko, Sergei; Radulescu, Ovidiu; Morozov, Ivan; Weber, Andres

2017-12-14

We consider continuous-time recurrent neural networks as dynamical models for the simulation of human body motions. These networks consist of a few centers and many satellites connected to them. The centers evolve in time as periodical oscillators with different frequencies. The center states define the satellite neurons' states by a radial basis function (RBF) network. To simulate different motions, we adjust the parameters of the RBF networks. Our network includes a switching module that allows for turning from one motion to another. Simulations show that this model allows us to simulate complicated motions consisting of many different dynamical primitives. We also use the model for learning human body motion from markers' trajectories. We find that center frequencies can be learned from a small number of markers and can be transferred to other markers, such that our technique seems to be capable of correcting for missing information resulting from sparse control marker settings.

Simulation of streamflow and sediment transport in two surface-coal-mined basins in Fayette County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sams, J. I.; Witt, E. C.

1995-01-01

The Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) was used to simulate streamflow and sediment transport in two surface-mined basins of Fayette County, Pa. Hydrologic data from the Stony Fork Basin (0.93 square miles) was used to calibrate HSPF parameters. The calibrated parameters were applied to an HSPF model of the Poplar Run Basin (8.83 square miles) to evaluate the transfer value of model parameters. The results of this investigation provide information to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources, Bureau of Mining and Reclamation, regarding the value of the simulated hydrologic data for use in cumulative hydrologic-impact assessments of surface-mined basins. The calibration period was October 1, 1985, through September 30, 1988 (water years 1986-88). The simulated data were representative of the observed data from the Stony Fork Basin. Mean simulated streamflow was 1.64 cubic feet per second compared to measured streamflow of 1.58 cubic feet per second for the 3-year period. The difference between the observed and simulated peak stormflow ranged from 4.0 to 59.7 percent for 12 storms. The simulated sediment load for the 1987 water year was 127.14 tons (0.21 ton per acre), which compares to a measured sediment load of 147.09 tons (0.25 ton per acre). The total simulated suspended-sediment load for the 3-year period was 538.2 tons (0.30 ton per acre per year), which compares to a measured sediment load of 467.61 tons (0.26 ton per acre per year). The model was verified by comparing observed and simulated data from October 1, 1988, through September 30, 1989. The results obtained were comparable to those from the calibration period. The simulated mean daily discharge was representative of the range of data observed from the basin and of the frequency with which specific discharges were equalled or exceeded. The calibrated and verified parameters from the Stony Fork model were applied to an HSPF model of the Poplar Run Basin. The two basins are in a similar physical setting. Data from October 1, 1987, through September 30, 1989, were used to evaluate the Poplar Run model. In general, the results from the Poplar Run model were comparable to those obtained from the Stony Fork model. The difference between observed and simulated total streamflow was 1.1 percent for the 2-year period. The mean annual streamflow simulated by the Poplar Run model was 18.3 cubic feet per second. This compares to an observed streamflow of 18.15 cubic feet per second. For the 2-year period, the simulated sediment load was 2,754 tons (0.24 ton per acre per year), which compares to a measured sediment load of 3,051.2 tons (0.27 ton per acre per year) for the Poplar Run Basin. Cumulative frequency-distribution curves of the observed and simulated streamflow compared well. The comparison between observed and simulated data improved as the time span increased. Simulated annual means and totals were more representative of the observed data than hourly data used in comparing storm events. The structure and organization of the HSPF model facilitated the simulation of a wide range of hydrologic processes. The simulation results from this investigation indicate that model parameters may be transferred to ungaged basins to generate representative hydrologic data through modeling techniques.

Red-light running violation prediction using observational and simulator data.

PubMed

Jahangiri, Arash; Rakha, Hesham; Dingus, Thomas A

2016-11-01

In the United States, 683 people were killed and an estimated 133,000 were injured in crashes due to running red lights in 2012. To help prevent/mitigate crashes caused by running red lights, these violations need to be identified before they occur, so both the road users (i.e., drivers, pedestrians, etc.) in potential danger and the infrastructure can be notified and actions can be taken accordingly. Two different data sets were used to assess the feasibility of developing red-light running (RLR) violation prediction models: (1) observational data and (2) driver simulator data. Both data sets included common factors, such as time to intersection (TTI), distance to intersection (DTI), and velocity at the onset of the yellow indication. However, the observational data set provided additional factors that the simulator data set did not, and vice versa. The observational data included vehicle information (e.g., speed, acceleration, etc.) for several different time frames. For each vehicle approaching an intersection in the observational data set, required data were extracted from several time frames as the vehicle drew closer to the intersection. However, since the observational data were inherently anonymous, driver factors such as age and gender were unavailable in the observational data set. Conversely, the simulator data set contained age and gender. In addition, the simulator data included a secondary (non-driving) task factor and a treatment factor (i.e., incoming/outgoing calls while driving). The simulator data only included vehicle information for certain time frames (e.g., yellow onset); the data did not provide vehicle information for several different time frames while vehicles were approaching an intersection. In this study, the random forest (RF) machine-learning technique was adopted to develop RLR violation prediction models. Factor importance was obtained for different models and different data sets to show how differently the factors influence the performance of each model. A sensitivity analysis showed that the factor importance to identify RLR violations changed when data from different time frames were used to develop the prediction models. TTI, DTI, the required deceleration parameter (RDP), and velocity at the onset of a yellow indication were among the most important factors identified by both models constructed using observational data and simulator data. Furthermore, in addition to the factors obtained from a point in time (i.e., yellow onset), valuable information suitable for RLR violation prediction was obtained from defined monitoring periods. It was found that period lengths of 2-6m contributed to the best model performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-resolution simulation of deep pencil beam surveys - analysis of quasi-periodicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, A. G.; Buchert, T.

1993-07-01

We carry out pencil beam constructions in a high-resolution simulation of the large-scale structure of galaxies. The initial density fluctuations are taken to have a truncated power spectrum. All the models have {OMEGA} = 1. As an example we present the results for the case of "Hot-Dark-Matter" (HDM) initial conditions with scale-free n = 1 power index on large scales as a representative of models with sufficient large-scale power. We use an analytic approximation for particle trajectories of a self-gravitating dust continuum and apply a local dynamical biasing of volume elements to identify luminous matter in the model. Using this method, we are able to resolve formally a simulation box of 1200h^-1^ Mpc (e.g. for HDM initial conditions) down to the scale of galactic halos using 2160^3^ particles. We consider this as the minimal resolution necessary for a sensible simulation of deep pencil beam data. Pencil beam probes are taken for a given epoch using the parameters of observed beams. In particular, our analysis concentrates on the detection of a quasi-periodicity in the beam probes using several different methods. The resulting beam ensembles are analyzed statistically using number distributions, pair-count histograms, unnormalized pair-counts, power spectrum analysis and trial-period folding. Periodicities are classified according to their significance level in the power spectrum of the beams. The simulation is designed for application to parameter studies which prepare future observational projects. We find that a large percentage of the beams show quasi- periodicities with periods which cluster at a certain length scale. The periods found range between one and eight times the cutoff length in the initial fluctuation spectrum. At significance levels similar to those of the data of Broadhurst et al. (1990), we find about 15% of the pencil beams to show periodicities, about 30% of which are around the mean separation of rich clusters, while the distribution of scales reaches values of more than 200h^-1^ Mpc. The detection of periodicities larger than the typical void size must not be due to missing of "walls" (like the so called "Great Wall" seen in the CfA catalogue of galaxies), but can be due to different clustering properties of galaxies along the beams.

Lunar tidal effects during the 2013 stratospheric sudden warming as simulated by the TIME-GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A. I.; Forbes, J. M.; Zhang, X.; Fejer, B. G.; Yudin, V. A.; Pedatella, N. M.

2015-12-01

Stratospheric Sudden Warmings (SSW) are associated with strong planetary wave activity in the winterpolar stratosphere which result in a very disturbed middle atmosphere. The changes in the middle atmospherealter the propagation conditions and the nonlinear interactions of waves and tides, and result in SSW signals in the upper atmosphere in e.g., neutral winds, electric fields, ionospheric currents and plasma distribution. The upper atmosphere changes can be significant at low-latitudes even during medium solar flux conditions. Observationsalso reveal a strong lunar signal during SSW periods in the low latitude vertical drifts and in ionospheric quantities. Forbes and Zhang [2012] demonstrated that during the 2009 SSW period the Pekeris resonance peak of the atmosphere was altered such that the M2 and N2 lunar tidal componentsgot amplified. This study focuses on the effect of the lunar tidal forcing on the thermosphere-ionosphere system during theJanuary 2013 SSW period. We employthe NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM)with a nudging scheme using the Whole-Atmosphere-Community-Climate-Model-Extended (WACCM-X)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS5) results to simulate the effects of meteorological forcing on the upper atmosphere. Additionally lunar tidal forcingis included at the lower boundary of the model. To delineate the lunar tidal effects a base simulation without lunar forcingis employed. Interestingly, Jicamarca observations of that period reveal a suppression of the daytime vertical drift before and after the drift enhancement due the SSW. The simulation suggests that the modulation of the vertical driftmay be caused by the interplay of the migrating solar and lunar semidiurnal tide, and therefore can only be reproduced by the inclusion of both lunar and solar tidal forcings in the model. In this presentation the changes due to the lunar tidal forcing will be quantified, and compared to observations.

Effects of Night Work, Sleep Loss and Time on Task on Simulated Threat Detection Performance

PubMed Central

Basner, Mathias; Rubinstein, Joshua; Fomberstein, Kenneth M.; Coble, Matthew C.; Ecker, Adrian; Avinash, Deepa; Dinges, David F.

2008-01-01

Study Objectives: To investigate the effects of night work and sleep loss on a simulated luggage screening task (SLST) that mimicked the x-ray system used by airport luggage screeners. Design: We developed more than 5,800 unique simulated x-ray images of luggage organized into 31 stimulus sets of 200 bags each. 25% of each set contained either a gun or a knife with low or high target difficulty. The 200-bag stimuli sets were then run on software that simulates an x-ray screening system (SLST). Signal detection analysis was used to obtain measures of hit rate (HR), false alarm rate (FAR), threat detection accuracy (A′), and response bias (B″D). Setting: Experimental laboratory study Participants: 24 healthy nonprofessional volunteers (13 women, mean age ± SD = 29.9 ± 6.5 years). Interventions: Subjects performed the SLST every 2 h during a 5-day period that included a 35 h period of wakefulness that extended to night work and then another day work period after the night without sleep. Results: Threat detection accuracy A′ decreased significantly (P < 0.001) while FAR increased significantly (P < 0.001) during night work, while both A′ (P = 0.001) and HR decreased (P = 0.008) during day work following sleep loss. There were prominent time-on-task effects on response bias B″D (P = 0.002) and response latency (P = 0.004), but accuracy A′ was unaffected. Both HR and FAR increased significantly with increasing study duration (both P < 0.001), while response latency decreased significantly (P < 0.001). Conclusions: This study provides the first systematic evidence that night work and sleep loss adversely affect the accuracy of detecting complex real world objects among high levels of background clutter. If the results can be replicated in professional screeners and real work environments, fatigue in luggage screening personnel may pose a threat for air traffic safety unless countermeasures for fatigue are deployed. Citation: Basner M; Rubinstein J; Fomberstein KM; Coble MC; Avinash D; Dinges DF. Effects of Night Work, Sleep Loss and Time on Task on Simulated Threat Detection Performance. SLEEP 2008;31(9):1251-1259. PMID:18788650

Getting It Right Matters: Climate Spectra and Their Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Privalsky, Victor; Yushkov, Vladislav

2018-06-01

In many recent publications, climate spectra estimated with different methods from observed, GCM-simulated, and reconstructed time series contain many peaks at time scales from a few years to many decades and even centuries. However, respective spectral estimates obtained with the autoregressive (AR) and multitapering (MTM) methods showed that spectra of climate time series are smooth and contain no evidence of periodic or quasi-periodic behavior. Four order selection criteria for the autoregressive models were studied and proven sufficiently reliable for 25 time series of climate observations at individual locations or spatially averaged at local-to-global scales. As time series of climate observations are short, an alternative reliable nonparametric approach is Thomson's MTM. These results agree with both the earlier climate spectral analyses and the Markovian stochastic model of climate.

Seasonality Impact on the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The statistical data of monthly pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) incidence cases from January 2004 to December 2012 show the seasonality fluctuations in Shaanxi of China. A seasonality TB epidemic model with periodic varying contact rate, reactivation rate, and disease-induced death rate is proposed to explore the impact of seasonality on the transmission dynamics of TB. Simulations show that the basic reproduction number of time-averaged autonomous systems may underestimate or overestimate infection risks in some cases, which may be up to the value of period. The basic reproduction number of the seasonality model is appropriately given, which determines the extinction and uniform persistence of TB disease. If it is less than one, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if it is greater than one, the system at least has a positive periodic solution and the disease will persist. Moreover, numerical simulations demonstrate these theorem results. PMID:27042199

Ozone Temporal Variability in the Subarctic Region: Comparison of Satellite Measurements with Numerical Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shved, G. M.; Virolainen, Ya. A.; Timofeyev, Yu. M.; Ermolenko, S. I.; Smyshlyaev, S. P.; Motsakov, M. A.; Kirner, O.

2018-01-01

Fourier and wavelet spectra of time series for the ozone column abundance in the atmospheric 0-25 and 25-60 km layers are analyzed from SBUV satellite observations and from numerical simulations based on the RSHU and EMAC models. The analysis uses datasets for three subarctic locations (St. Petersburg, Harestua, and Kiruna) for 2000-2014. The Fourier and wavelet spectra show periodicities in the range from 10 days to 10 years and from 1 day to 2 years, respectively. The comparison of the spectra shows overall agreement between the observational and modeled datasets. However, the analysis has revealed differences both between the measurements and the models and between the models themselves. The differences primarily concern the Rossby wave period region and the 11-year and semiannual periodicities. Possible reasons are given for the differences between the models and the measurements.

Route to chaos in porous-medium thermal convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimura, S.; Schubert, G.; Straus, J. M.

1986-05-01

The transition to chaos in two-dimensional single-cell time-dependent convection in a square cross section of porous material saturated with fluid and heated from below is investigated theoretically by means of pseudospectral numerical simulations. The results are presented graphically and discussed in terms of the time-averaged Nusselt number, the oscillation mechanism, and similarities to Hele-Shaw convection. As the Rayleigh number (R) increases, the system is found to proceed from the steady state to a simply periodic state, a quasi-periodic state with two basic frequencies, a second simply periodic state, and finally to chaos. The transitions occur at R = 4 pi squared, 380-400, 500-520, 560-570, and 850-1000. The intermediate and chaotic regimes are characterized in detail.

An assessment of the ability of Bartlett-Lewis type of rainfall models to reproduce drought statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, M. T.; Vanhaute, W. J.; Vandenberghe, S.; De Baets, B.; Verhoest, N. E. C.

2013-12-01

Of all natural disasters, the economic and environmental consequences of droughts are among the highest because of their longevity and widespread spatial extent. Because of their extreme behaviour, studying droughts generally requires long time series of historical climate data. Rainfall is a very important variable for calculating drought statistics, for quantifying historical droughts or for assessing the impact on other hydrological (e.g. water stage in rivers) or agricultural (e.g. irrigation requirements) variables. Unfortunately, time series of historical observations are often too short for such assessments. To circumvent this, one may rely on the synthetic rainfall time series from stochastic point process rainfall models, such as Bartlett-Lewis models. The present study investigates whether drought statistics are preserved when simulating rainfall with Bartlett-Lewis models. Therefore, a 105 yr 10 min rainfall time series obtained at Uccle, Belgium is used as a test case. First, drought events were identified on the basis of the Effective Drought Index (EDI), and each event was characterized by two variables, i.e. drought duration (D) and drought severity (S). As both parameters are interdependent, a multivariate distribution function, which makes use of a copula, was fitted. Based on the copula, four types of drought return periods are calculated for observed as well as simulated droughts and are used to evaluate the ability of the rainfall models to simulate drought events with the appropriate characteristics. Overall, all Bartlett-Lewis model types studied fail to preserve extreme drought statistics, which is attributed to the model structure and to the model stationarity caused by maintaining the same parameter set during the whole simulation period.

A copula-based assessment of Bartlett-Lewis type of rainfall models for preserving drought statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, M. T.; Vanhaute, W. J.; Vandenberghe, S.; De Baets, B.; Verhoest, N. E. C.

2013-06-01

Of all natural disasters, the economic and environmental consequences of droughts are among the highest because of their longevity and widespread spatial extent. Because of their extreme behaviour, studying droughts generally requires long time series of historical climate data. Rainfall is a very important variable for calculating drought statistics, for quantifying historical droughts or for assessing the impact on other hydrological (e.g. water stage in rivers) or agricultural (e.g. irrigation requirements) variables. Unfortunately, time series of historical observations are often too short for such assessments. To circumvent this, one may rely on the synthetic rainfall time series from stochastic point process rainfall models, such as Bartlett-Lewis models. The present study investigates whether drought statistics are preserved when simulating rainfall with Bartlett-Lewis models. Therefore, a 105 yr 10 min rainfall time series obtained at Uccle, Belgium is used as test case. First, drought events were identified on the basis of the Effective Drought Index (EDI), and each event was characterized by two variables, i.e. drought duration (D) and drought severity (S). As both parameters are interdependent, a multivariate distribution function, which makes use of a copula, was fitted. Based on the copula, four types of drought return periods are calculated for observed as well as simulated droughts and are used to evaluate the ability of the rainfall models to simulate drought events with the appropriate characteristics. Overall, all Bartlett-Lewis type of models studied fail in preserving extreme drought statistics, which is attributed to the model structure and to the model stationarity caused by maintaining the same parameter set during the whole simulation period.

The assessment of neuromuscular fatigue during 120 min of simulated soccer exercise.

PubMed

Goodall, Stuart; Thomas, Kevin; Harper, Liam David; Hunter, Robert; Parker, Paul; Stevenson, Emma; West, Daniel; Russell, Mark; Howatson, Glyn

2017-04-01

This investigation examined the development of neuromuscular fatigue during a simulated soccer match incorporating a period of extra time (ET) and the reliability of these responses on repeated test occasions. Ten male amateur football players completed a 120 min soccer match simulation (SMS). Before, at half time (HT), full time (FT), and following a period of ET, twitch responses to supramaximal femoral nerve and transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) were obtained from the knee-extensors to measure neuromuscular fatigue. Within 7 days of the first SMS, a second 120 min SMS was performed by eight of the original ten participants to assess the reliability of the fatigue response. At HT, FT, and ET, reductions in maximal voluntary force (MVC; -11, -20 and -27%, respectively, P ≤ 0.01), potentiated twitch force (-15, -23 and -23%, respectively, P < 0.05), voluntary activation (FT, -15 and ET, -18%, P ≤ 0.01), and voluntary activation measured with TMS (-11, -15 and -17%, respectively, P ≤ 0.01) were evident. The fatigue response was robust across both trials; the change in MVC at each time point demonstrated a good level of reliability (CV range 6-11%; ICC 2,1 0.83-0.94), whilst the responses identified with motor nerve stimulation showed a moderate level of reliability (CV range 5-18%; ICC 2,1 0.63-0.89) and the data obtained with motor cortex stimulation showed an excellent level of reliability (CV range 3-6%; ICC 2,1 0.90-0.98). Simulated soccer exercise induces a significant level of fatigue, which is consistent on repeat tests, and involves both central and peripheral mechanisms.

Simulations of a dynamic solar cycle and its effects on the interstellar boundary explorer ribbon and globally distributed energetic neutral atom flux

DOE PAGES

Zirnstein, E. J.; Heerikhuisen, J.; Pogorelov, N. V.; ...

2015-04-23

Observations by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) have vastly improved our understanding of the interaction between the solar wind (SW) and local interstellar medium through direct measurements of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs); this informs us about the heliospheric conditions that produced them. An enhanced feature of flux in the sky, the so-called IBEX ribbon, was not predicted by any global models before the first IBEX observations. A dominating theory of the origin of the ribbon, although still under debate, is a secondary charge-exchange process involving secondary ENAs originating from outside the heliopause. According to this mechanism, the evolution of themore » solar cycle should be visible in the ribbon flux. Therefore, in this paper we simulate a fully time-dependent ribbon flux, as well as globally distributed flux from the inner heliosheath (IHS), using time-dependent SW parameters from Sokol et al. as boundary conditions for our time-dependent heliosphere simulation. After post-processing the results to compute H ENA fluxes, these results show that the secondary ENA ribbon indeed should be time dependent, evolving with a period of approximately 11 yr, with differences depending on the energy and direction. Our results for the IHS flux show little periodic change with the 11 yr solar cycle, but rather with short-term fluctuations in the background plasma. And, while the secondary ENA mechanism appears to emulate several key characteristics of the observed IBEX ribbon, it appears that our simulation does not yet include all of the relevant physics that produces the observed ribbon.« less

SIMULATIONS OF A DYNAMIC SOLAR CYCLE AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE INTERSTELLAR BOUNDARY EXPLORER RIBBON AND GLOBALLY DISTRIBUTED ENERGETIC NEUTRAL ATOM FLUX

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zirnstein, E. J.; Heerikhuisen, J.; Pogorelov, N. V.

2015-05-01

Since 2009, observations by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) have vastly improved our understanding of the interaction between the solar wind (SW) and local interstellar medium through direct measurements of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs), which inform us about the heliospheric conditions that produced them. An enhanced feature of flux in the sky, the so-called IBEX ribbon, was not predicted by any global models before the first IBEX observations. A dominating theory of the origin of the ribbon, although still under debate, is a secondary charge-exchange process involving secondary ENAs originating from outside the heliopause. According to this mechanism, the evolutionmore » of the solar cycle should be visible in the ribbon flux. Therefore, in this paper we simulate a fully time-dependent ribbon flux, as well as globally distributed flux from the inner heliosheath (IHS), using time-dependent SW parameters from Sokół et al. as boundary conditions for our time-dependent heliosphere simulation. After post-processing the results to compute H ENA fluxes, our results show that the secondary ENA ribbon indeed should be time dependent, evolving with a period of approximately 11 yr, with differences depending on the energy and direction. Our results for the IHS flux show little periodic change with the 11 yr solar cycle, but rather with short-term fluctuations in the background plasma. While the secondary ENA mechanism appears to emulate several key characteristics of the observed IBEX ribbon, it appears that our simulation does not yet include all of the relevant physics that produces the observed ribbon.« less

Causes of the longitudinal differences in the equatorial vertical E × B drift during the 2013 SSW period as simulated by the TIME-GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A.; Hagan, M. E.; Yudin, V.; Liu, H.-L.; Yizengaw, E.

2015-06-01

During stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) periods large changes in the low-latitude vertical drift have been observed at Jicamarca as well as in other longitudinal sectors. In general, a strengthening of the daytime maximum vertical drift with a shift from prenoon to the afternoon is observed. During the January 2013 stratospheric warming significant longitudinal differences in the equatorial vertical drift were observed. At Jicamarca the previously reported SSW behavior prevails; however, no shift of the daytime maximum drift was exhibited in the African sector. Using the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) the possible causes for the longitudinal difference are examined. The timing of the strong SSW effect in the vertical drift (15-20 January) coincides with moderate geomagnetic activity. The simulation indicates that approximately half of the daytime vertical drift increase in the American sector may be related to the moderate geophysical conditions (Kp = 4) with the effect being negligible in the African sector. The simulation suggests that the wind dynamo accounts for approximately 50% of the daytime vertical drift in the American sector and almost 100% in the African sector. The simulation agrees with previous findings that the migrating solar tides and the semidiurnal westward propagating tide with zonal wave number 1 (SW1) mainly contribute to the daytime wind dynamo and vertical drift. Numerical experiments suggest that the neutral wind and the geomagnetic main field contribute to the presence (absence) of a local time shift in the daytime maximum drift in the American (African) sector.

Continuous assimilation of simulated Geosat altimetric sea level into an eddy-resolving numerical ocean model. I - Sea level differences. II - Referenced sea level differences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Warren B.; Tai, Chang-Kou; Holland, William R.

1990-01-01

The optimal interpolation method of Lorenc (1981) was used to conduct continuous assimilation of altimetric sea level differences from the simulated Geosat exact repeat mission (ERM) into a three-layer quasi-geostrophic eddy-resolving numerical ocean box model that simulates the statistics of mesoscale eddy activity in the western North Pacific. Assimilation was conducted continuously as the Geosat tracks appeared in simulated real time/space, with each track repeating every 17 days, but occurring at different times and locations within the 17-day period, as would have occurred in a realistic nowcast situation. This interpolation method was also used to conduct the assimilation of referenced altimetric sea level differences into the same model, performing the referencing of altimetric sea sevel differences by using the simulated sea level. The results of this dynamical interpolation procedure are compared with those of a statistical (i.e., optimum) interpolation procedure.

Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the Red Clay Creek subbasin of the Christina River Basin, Pennsylvania and Delaware, 1994-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senior, Lisa A.; Koerkle, Edward H.

2003-01-01

The Christina River Basin drains 565 square miles (mi2) in Pennsylvania and Delaware and includes the major subbasins of Red Clay Creek, White Clay Creek, Brandywine Creek, and Christina River. The Red Clay Creek is the smallest of the subbasins and drains an area of 54 mi2. Streams in the Christina River Basin are used for recreation, drinking-water supply, and to support aquatic life. Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the stream. A multi-agency, waterquality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point and nonpointsource contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on stream water quality. To assist in nonpointsource evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the four main subbasins of the Christina River Basin, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program?Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in smaller subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint-source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base-flow samples were collected during 1998 at 1 site in the Red Clay Creek subbasin and at 10 sites elsewhere in the Christina River Basin.The HSPF model for the Red Clay Creek subbasin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into nine reaches draining areas that ranged from 1.7 to 10 mi2. One of the reaches contains a regulated reservoir. Ten different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the Red Clay Creek subbasin are agricultural, forested, residential, and urban.The hydrologic component of the model was run at an hourly time step and calibrated using streamflow data from three U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-measurement stations for the period of October 1, 1994, through October 29, 1998. Daily precipitation data from one National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gage and hourly data from one NOAA gage were used for model input. The difference between observed and simulated stream- flow volume ranged from -0.8 to 2.1 percent for the 4-year period at the three calibration sites. Annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow generally were greater than the overall error for the 4-year period. For example, at a site near Stanton, Del., near the bottom of the basin (drainage area of 50.2 mi2), annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow ranged from -5.8 to 6.0 percent and the overall error for the 4-year period was -0.8 percent. Calibration errors for 36 storm periods at the three calibration sites for total volume, low-flow-recession rate, 50-percent lowest flows, 10-percent highest flows, and storm peaks were 20 percent or less. Much of the error in simulating storm events on an hourly time step can be attributed to uncertainty in the rainfall data.The water-quality component of the model was calibrated using nonpoint-source monitoring data collected in 1998 at one USGS streamflowmeasurement station and other water-quality monitoring data collected at three USGS streamflowmeasurement stations. The period of record for waterquality monitoring was variable at the stations, with an end date of October 1998 but the start date ranging from October 1994 to January 1998. Because of availability, monitoring data for suspended-solids concentrations were used as surrogates for suspendedsediment concentrations, although suspended solids may underestimate suspended sediment and affect apparent accuracy of the suspended-sediment simulation. Comparison of observed to simulated loads for five storms in 1998 at the one nonpoint-source monitoring site at Wooddale, Del., indicates that simulation error commonly is as large as an order of magnitude for suspended sediment and nutrients. The simulation error tends to be smaller for dissolved utrients than particulate nutrients. Errors of 40 percent or less for monthly or annual values indicate a fair to good water-quality calibration according to recommended criteria, with much larger errors possible for individual storm events. Assessment of the accuracy of the water-quality calibration under stormflow conditions is limited by the sparsity of available water-quality data in the basin.Users of the Red Clay Creek HSPF model should be aware of model limitations and consider the following when predictive scenarios are desired: streamflow-duration curves indicate the model simulates stream-flow reasonably well when evaluated over a broad range of conditions and time, although streamflow and the corresponding water quality for individual storm events may not be well simulated; streamflow-duration curves for the simulation period compare well with duration curves for the 57.5-year period ending in 2001 at Wooddale, Del., and include all but the extreme high-flow and low-flow events; calibration for water quality was based on sparse data, with the result of increasing uncertainty in the water-quality simulation.

Mast cell curve-response in partial Achilles tendon rupture after 830 nm phototherapy.

PubMed

Pinfildi, Carlos E; da Silva, Érika P Rampazo; Folha, Roberta A C; Turchetto, Paola C G; Monteiro, Paola Pkp; Antunes, Arainy; Hochman, Bernardo S

2014-02-01

The aim of this study was to quantify mast cells at different time intervals after partial Achilles tendon rupture in rats treated with low-level laser therapy (LLLT). There is a high incidence of lesions and ruptures in the Achilles tendon that can take weeks and even months to heal completely. As the mast cells help in the healing repair phase, and LLLT has favorable effects on this tissue repair process, study of this modality on the quantity of mastocytes in the ruptured tendon is relevant. Sixty Wistar rats were subjected to partial Achilles' tendon rupture by direct trauma, randomized into 10 groups, and then divided into the group treated with 80 mW aluminum gallium arsenide infrared laser diode, continuous wave, 2.8 W/cm(2) power density, 40 J/cm(2) energy density, and 1.12 J total energy, and the simulation group. Both the groups were subdivided according to the histological assessment period of the sample, either 6 h, 12 h, 24 h, 2 days, or 3 days after the rupture, to quantify the mastocytes in the Achilles' tendon. The group subjected to LLLT presented a greater quantity of mastocytes in the periods of 6 h, 12 h, 24 h, 2 days, and 3 days after rupture, compared with the simulation groups, but differences were detected between the sample assessment periods only in the simulation group. LLLT was shown to increase the quantity of mastocytes in the assessment periods compared with the simulation groups.

Design and implementation of a low-cost multiple-range digital phase detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omran, Hesham; Albasha, Lutfi; Al-Ali, A. R.

2012-06-01

This article describes the design, simulation, implementation and testing of a novel low-cost multiple-range programmable digital phase detector. The detector receives two periodic signals and calculates the ratio of the time difference to the time period to measure and display the phase difference. The resulting output values are in integer form ranging from -180° to 180°. Users can select the detector pre-set operation frequency ranges using a three-bit pre-scalar. This enables to use the detector for various applications. The proposed detector can be programmed over a frequency range of 10 Hz to 25 kHz by configuring its clock divider circuit. Detector simulations were conducted and verified using ModelSim and the design was implemented and tested using an Altera Cyclone II field-programmable gate array board. Both the simulation and actual circuit testing results showed that the phase detector has a magnitude of error of only 1°. The detector is ideal for applications such as power factor measurement and correction, self-tuning resonant circuits and in metal detection systems. Unlike other stand-alone phase detection systems, the reported system has the ability to be programmed to several frequency ranges, hence expanding its bandwidth.

Extending atomistic scale chemistry to mesoscale model of condensed-phase deflagration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Kaushik; Chaudhuri, Santanu

2017-01-01

Predictive simulations connecting chemistry that follow the shock or thermal initiation of energetic materials to subsequent deflagration or detonation events is currently outside the realm of possibilities. Molecular dynamics and first-principles based dynamics have made progress in understanding reactions in picosecond to nanosecond time scale. Results from thermal ignition of different phases of RDX show a complex reaction network and emergence of a deterministic behavior for critical temperature before ignition and hot spot growth rates. The kinetics observed is dependent on the hot spot temperature, system size and thermal conductivity. For cases where ignition is observed, the incubation period is dominated by intermolecular and intramolecular hydrogen transfer reactions. The gradual temperature and pressure increase in the incubation period is accompanied by accumulation of heavier polyradicals. The challenge of connecting such chemistry in mesoscale simulations remain in reducing the complexity of chemistry. The hot spot growth kinetics in RDX grains and interfaces is an important challenge for reactive simulations aiming to fill in the gaps in our knowledge in the nanoseconds to microseconds time scale. The results discussed indicate that the mesoscale chemistry may include large polyradical molecules in dense reactive mix reaching an instability point at certain temperatures and pressures.

Estimating short-period dynamics using an extended Kalman filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, Jeffrey E.; Andrisani, Dominick

1990-01-01

An extended Kalman filter (EKF) is used to estimate the parameters of a low-order model from aircraft transient response data. The low-order model is a state space model derived from the short-period approximation of the longitudinal aircraft dynamics. The model corresponds to the pitch rate to stick force transfer function currently used in flying qualities analysis. Because of the model chosen, handling qualities information is also obtained. The parameters are estimated from flight data as well as from a six-degree-of-freedom, nonlinear simulation of the aircraft. These two estimates are then compared and the discrepancies noted. The low-order model is able to satisfactorily match both flight data and simulation data from a high-order computer simulation. The parameters obtained from the EKF analysis of flight data are compared to those obtained using frequency response analysis of the flight data. Time delays and damping ratios are compared and are in agreement. This technique demonstrates the potential to determine, in near real time, the extent of differences between computer models and the actual aircraft. Precise knowledge of these differences can help to determine the flying qualities of a test aircraft and lead to more efficient envelope expansion.

A glacier runoff extension to the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; Viger, Roland

2016-01-01

A module to simulate glacier runoff, PRMSglacier, was added to PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), a distributed-parameter, physical-process hydrological simulation code. The extension does not require extensive on-glacier measurements or computational expense but still relies on physical principles over empirical relations as much as is feasible while maintaining model usability. PRMSglacier is validated on two basins in Alaska, Wolverine, and Gulkana Glacier basin, which have been studied since 1966 and have a substantial amount of data with which to test model performance over a long period of time covering a wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions. When error in field measurements is considered, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of streamflow are 0.87 and 0.86, the absolute bias fractions of the winter mass balance simulations are 0.10 and 0.08, and the absolute bias fractions of the summer mass balances are 0.01 and 0.03, all computed over 42 years for the Wolverine and Gulkana Glacier basins, respectively. Without taking into account measurement error, the values are still within the range achieved by the more computationally expensive codes tested over shorter time periods.

Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

2011-01-01

Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

Evaluation of Endocrine Disrupting Compounds Migration in Household Food Containers under Domestic Use Conditions.

PubMed

Sáiz, Jorge; Gómara, Belén

2017-08-09

Plasticizers and plastic monomers are commonly used in packaging. Most of them act as endocrine disrupters and are susceptible to migrate from the packaging to the food. We evaluated the migration of endocrine disrupting compounds from three different household food containers to four food simulants under different domestic treatments and for different periods of time, with the aim of reproducing real domestic conditions. The results showed that the migration to the simulants increased with the storage time, up to more than 50 times in certain cases. The heating power seemed to increase the migration processes (up to more than 30 times), and reusing containers produced an increase or decrease of the concentrations depending on the container type and the simulant. The concentrations found were lower than other concentrations reported (always less than 4000 pg/mL, down to less than 20 pg/mL), which might be a consequence of the domestic conditions used.

Crystal water dynamics of guanosine dihydrate: analysis of atomic displacement parameters, time profile of hydrogen-bonding probability, and translocation of water by MD simulation.

PubMed

Yoneda, Shigetaka; Sugawara, Yoko; Urabe, Hisako

2005-01-27

The dynamics of crystal water molecules of guanosine dihydrate are investigated in detail by molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. A 2 ns simulation is performed using a periodic boundary box composed of 4 x 5 x 8 crystallographic unit cells and using the particle-mesh Ewald method for calculation of electrostatic energy. The simulated average atomic positions and atomic displacement parameters are remarkably coincident with the experimental values determined by X-ray analysis, confirming the high accuracy of this simulation. The dynamics of crystal water are analyzed in terms of atomic displacement parameters, orientation vectors, order parameters, self-correlation functions of the orientation vectors, time profiles of hydrogen-bonding probability, and translocations. The simulation clarifies that the average structure is composed of various stable and transient structures of the molecules. The simulated guanosine crystal forms a layered structure, with four water sites per asymmetric unit, classified as either interlayer water or intralayer water. From a detailed analysis of the translocations of water molecules in the simulation, columns of intralayer water molecules along the c axis appear to represent a pathway for hydration and dehydration by a kind of molecular valve mechanism.

Representation of fine scale atmospheric variability in a nudged limited area quasi-geostrophic model: application to regional climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omrani, H.; Drobinski, P.; Dubos, T.

2009-09-01

In this work, we consider the effect of indiscriminate nudging time on the large and small scales of an idealized limited area model simulation. The limited area model is a two layer quasi-geostrophic model on the beta-plane driven at its boundaries by its « global » version with periodic boundary condition. This setup mimics the configuration used for regional climate modelling. Compared to a previous study by Salameh et al. (2009) who investigated the existence of an optimal nudging time minimizing the error on both large and small scale in a linear model, we here use a fully non-linear model which allows us to represent the chaotic nature of the atmosphere: given the perfect quasi-geostrophic model, errors in the initial conditions, concentrated mainly in the smaller scales of motion, amplify and cascade into the larger scales, eventually resulting in a prediction with low skill. To quantify the predictability of our quasi-geostrophic model, we measure the rate of divergence of the system trajectories in phase space (Lyapunov exponent) from a set of simulations initiated with a perturbation of a reference initial state. Predictability of the "global", periodic model is mostly controlled by the beta effect. In the LAM, predictability decreases as the domain size increases. Then, the effect of large-scale nudging is studied by using the "perfect model” approach. Two sets of experiments were performed: (1) the effect of nudging is investigated with a « global » high resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model driven by a low resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model. (2) similar simulations are conducted with the two layer quasi-geostrophic LAM where the size of the LAM domain comes into play in addition to the first set of simulations. In the two sets of experiments, the best spatial correlation between the nudge simulation and the reference is observed with a nudging time close to the predictability time.

Accurate frequency domain measurement of the best linear time-invariant approximation of linear time-periodic systems including the quantification of the time-periodic distortions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louarroudi, E.; Pintelon, R.; Lataire, J.

2014-10-01

Time-periodic (TP) phenomena occurring, for instance, in wind turbines, helicopters, anisotropic shaft-bearing systems, and cardiovascular/respiratory systems, are often not addressed when classical frequency response function (FRF) measurements are performed. As the traditional FRF concept is based on the linear time-invariant (LTI) system theory, it is only approximately valid for systems with varying dynamics. Accordingly, the quantification of any deviation from this ideal LTI framework is more than welcome. The “measure of deviation” allows us to define the notion of the best LTI (BLTI) approximation, which yields the best - in mean square sense - LTI description of a linear time-periodic LTP system. By taking into consideration the TP effects, it is shown in this paper that the variability of the BLTI measurement can be reduced significantly compared with that of classical FRF estimators. From a single experiment, the proposed identification methods can handle (non-)linear time-periodic [(N)LTP] systems in open-loop with a quantification of (i) the noise and/or the NL distortions, (ii) the TP distortions and (iii) the transient (leakage) errors. Besides, a geometrical interpretation of the BLTI approximation is provided, leading to a framework called vector FRF analysis. The theory presented is supported by numerical simulations as well as real measurements mimicking the well-known mechanical Mathieu oscillator.

Adding fling effects to processed ground‐motion time histories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kamai, Ronnie; Abrahamson, Norman A.; Graves, Robert

2014-01-01

Fling is the engineering term for the effects of the permanent tectonic offset, caused by a rupturing fault in the recorded ground motions near the fault. It is expressed by a one‐sided pulse in ground velocity and a nonzero final displacement at the end of shaking. Standard processing of earthquake time histories removes some of the fling effects that may be required for engineering applications. A method to parameterize the fling‐step time history and to superimpose it onto traditionally processed time histories has been developed by Abrahamson (2002). In this paper, we first present an update to the Abrahamson (2002) fling‐step models, in which the fling step is parameterized as a single cycle of a sine wave. Parametric models are presented for the sine‐wave amplitude (Dsite) and period (Tf). The expressions for Dsite and Tf are derived from an extensive set of finite‐fault simulations conducted on the Southern California Earthquake Center broadband platform (see Data and Resources). The simulations were run with the Graves and Pitarka (2010) hybrid simulation method and included strike‐slip and reverse scenarios for magnitudes of 6.0–8.2 and dips of 30 through 90. Next, an improved approach for developing design ground motions with fling effects is presented, which deals with the problem of double‐counting intermediate period components that were not removed by the standard ground‐motion processing. Finally, the results are validated against a set of 84 empirical recordings containing fling.

Using scan statistics for congenital anomalies surveillance: the EUROCAT methodology.

PubMed

Teljeur, Conor; Kelly, Alan; Loane, Maria; Densem, James; Dolk, Helen

2015-11-01

Scan statistics have been used extensively to identify temporal clusters of health events. We describe the temporal cluster detection methodology adopted by the EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) monitoring system. Since 2001, EUROCAT has implemented variable window width scan statistic for detecting unusual temporal aggregations of congenital anomaly cases. The scan windows are based on numbers of cases rather than being defined by time. The methodology is imbedded in the EUROCAT Central Database for annual application to centrally held registry data. The methodology was incrementally adapted to improve the utility and to address statistical issues. Simulation exercises were used to determine the power of the methodology to identify periods of raised risk (of 1-18 months). In order to operationalize the scan methodology, a number of adaptations were needed, including: estimating date of conception as unit of time; deciding the maximum length (in time) and recency of clusters of interest; reporting of multiple and overlapping significant clusters; replacing the Monte Carlo simulation with a lookup table to reduce computation time; and placing a threshold on underlying population change and estimating the false positive rate by simulation. Exploration of power found that raised risk periods lasting 1 month are unlikely to be detected except when the relative risk and case counts are high. The variable window width scan statistic is a useful tool for the surveillance of congenital anomalies. Numerous adaptations have improved the utility of the original methodology in the context of temporal cluster detection in congenital anomalies.

Application of Lidar Data to the Performance Evaluations of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Tropospheric Ozone (O3) Lidar Network (TOLNet) provides time/height O3 measurements from near the surface to the top of the troposphere to describe in high-fidelity spatial-temporal distributions, which is uniquely useful to evaluate the temporal evolution of O3 profiles in air quality models. This presentation describes the application of the Lidar data to the performance evaluation of CMAQ simulated O3 vertical profiles during the summer, 2014. Two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ simulations with 12km and 4km domains centered over Boulder, Colorado were performed during this time period. The analysis on the time series of observed and modeled O3 mixing ratios at different vertical layers indicates that the model frequently underestimated the observed values, and the underestimation was amplified in the middle model layers (~1km above the ground). When the lightning strikes detected by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) were analyzed along with the observed O3 time series, it was found that the daily maximum O3 mixing ratios correlated well with the lightning strikes in the vicinity of the Lidar station. The analysis on temporal vertical profiles of both observed and modeled O3 mixing ratios on episodic days suggests that the model resolutions (12km and 4km) do not make any significant difference for this analysis (at this specific location and simulation period), but high O3 levels in the middle layers were linked to lightning activity that occurred in t

Emissions Models and Other Methods to Produce Emission Inventories

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

An emissions inventory is a summary or forecast of the emissions produced by a group of sources in a given time period. Inventories of air pollution from mobile sources are often produced by models such as the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES).

Study on reservoir time-varying design flood of inflow based on Poisson process with time-dependent parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiqing; Huang, Jing; Li, Jianchang

2018-06-01

The time-varying design flood can make full use of the measured data, which can provide the reservoir with the basis of both flood control and operation scheduling. This paper adopts peak over threshold method for flood sampling in unit periods and Poisson process with time-dependent parameters model for simulation of reservoirs time-varying design flood. Considering the relationship between the model parameters and hypothesis, this paper presents the over-threshold intensity, the fitting degree of Poisson distribution and the design flood parameters are the time-varying design flood unit period and threshold discriminant basis, deduced Longyangxia reservoir time-varying design flood process at 9 kinds of design frequencies. The time-varying design flood of inflow is closer to the reservoir actual inflow conditions, which can be used to adjust the operating water level in flood season and make plans for resource utilization of flood in the basin.

Study of Ozone Layer Variability near St. Petersburg on the Basis of SBUV Satellite Measurements and Numerical Simulation (2000-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virolainen, Y. A.; Timofeyev, Y. M.; Smyshlyaev, S. P.; Motsakov, M. A.; Kirner, O.

2017-12-01

A comparison between the numerical simulation results of ozone fields with different experimental data makes it possible to estimate the quality of models for their further use in reliable forecasts of ozone layer evolution. We analyze time series of satellite (SBUV) measurements of the total ozone column (TOC) and the ozone partial columns in two atmospheric layers (0-25 and 25-60 km) and compare them with the results of numerical simulation in the chemistry transport model (CTM) for the low and middle atmosphere and the chemistry climate model EMAC. The daily and monthly average ozone values, short-term periods of ozone depletion, and long-term trends of ozone columns are considered; all data sets relate to St. Petersburg and the period between 2000 and 2014. The statistical parameters (means, standard deviations, variations, medians, asymmetry parameter, etc.) of the ozone time series are quite similar for all datasets. However, the EMAC model systematically underestimates the ozone columns in all layers considered. The corresponding differences between satellite measurements and EMAC numerical simulations are (5 ± 5)% and (7 ± 7)% and (1 ± 4)% for the ozone column in the 0-25 and 25-60 km layers, respectively. The correspondent differences between SBUV measurements and CTM results amount to (0 ± 7)%, (1 ± 9)%, and (-2 ± 8)%. Both models describe the sudden episodes of the ozone minimum well, but the EMAC accuracy is much higher than that of the CTM, which often underestimates the ozone minima. Assessments of the long-term linear trends show that they are close to zero for all datasets for the period under study.

The effect of a simulation training package on skill acquisition for duplex arterial stenosis detection.

PubMed

Jaffer, Usman; Normahani, Pasha; Singh, Prashant; Aslam, Mohammed; Standfield, Nigel J

2015-01-01

In vascular surgery, duplex ultrasonography is a valuable diagnostic tool in patients with peripheral vascular disease, and there is increasing demand for vascular surgeons to be able to perform duplex scanning. This study evaluates the role of a novel simulation training package on vascular ultrasound (US) skill acquisition. A total of 19 novices measured predefined stenosis in a simulated pulsatile vessel using both peak systolic velocity ratio (PSVR) and diameter reduction (DR) methods before and after a short period of training using a simulated training package. The training package consisted of a simulated pulsatile vessel phantom, a set of instructional videos, duplex ultrasound objective structured assessment of technical skills (DUOSATS) tool, and a portable US scanner. Quantitative metrics (procedure time, percentage error using PSVR and DR methods, DUOSAT scores, and global rating scores) before and after training were compared. Subjects spent a median time of 144 mins (IQR: 60-195) training using the simulation package. Subjects exhibited statistically significant improvements when comparing pretraining and posttraining DUOSAT scores (pretraining = 17 [16-19.3] vs posttraining = 30 [27.8-31.8]; p < 0.01), global rating score (pretraining = 1 [1-2] vs posttraining = 4 [3.8-4]; p < 0.01), percentage error using both the DR (pretraining = 12.6% [9-29.6] vs posttraining = 10.3% [8.9-11.1]; p = 0.03) and PSVR (pretraining = 60% [40-60] vs posttraining = 20% [6.7-20]; p < 0.01) methods. In this study, subjects with no previous practical US experience developed the ability to both acquire and interpret arterial duplex images in a pulsatile simulated phantom following a short period of goal direct training using a simulation training package. A simulation training package may be a valuable tool for integration into a vascular training program. However, further work is needed to explore whether these newly attained skills are translated into clinical assessment. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of experimental protocol on global vegetation model accuracy: a comparison of simulated and observed vegetation patterns for Asia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tang, Guoping; Shafer, Sarah L.; Barlein, Patrick J.; Holman, Justin O.

2009-01-01

Prognostic vegetation models have been widely used to study the interactions between environmental change and biological systems. This study examines the sensitivity of vegetation model simulations to: (i) the selection of input climatologies representing different time periods and their associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, (ii) the choice of observed vegetation data for evaluating the model results, and (iii) the methods used to compare simulated and observed vegetation. We use vegetation simulated for Asia by the equilibrium vegetation model BIOME4 as a typical example of vegetation model output. BIOME4 was run using 19 different climatologies and their associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The Kappa statistic, Fuzzy Kappa statistic and a newly developed map-comparison method, the Nomad index, were used to quantify the agreement between the biomes simulated under each scenario and the observed vegetation from three different global land- and tree-cover data sets: the global Potential Natural Vegetation data set (PNV), the Global Land Cover Characteristics data set (GLCC), and the Global Land Cover Facility data set (GLCF). The results indicate that the 30-year mean climatology (and its associated atmospheric CO2 concentration) for the time period immediately preceding the collection date of the observed vegetation data produce the most accurate vegetation simulations when compared with all three observed vegetation data sets. The study also indicates that the BIOME4-simulated vegetation for Asia more closely matches the PNV data than the other two observed vegetation data sets. Given the same observed data, the accuracy assessments of the BIOME4 simulations made using the Kappa, Fuzzy Kappa and Nomad index map-comparison methods agree well when the compared vegetation types consist of a large number of spatially continuous grid cells. The results of this analysis can assist model users in designing experimental protocols for simulating vegetation.

Legacy effects of simulated short-term climate change on ammonia oxidisers, denitrifiers, and nitrous oxide emissions in an acid soil.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaoya; Liu, Xiaorui; Li, Yong; Ran, Yu; Liu, Yapeng; Zhang, Qichun; Li, Zheng; He, Yan; Xu, Jianming; Di, Hongjie

2017-04-01

Although the effect of simulated climate change on nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and on associated microbial communities has been reported, it is not well understood if these effects are short-lived or long-lasting. Here, we conducted a field study to determine the interactive effects of simulated warmer and drier conditions on nitrifier and denitrifier communities and N 2 O emissions in an acidic soil and the longevity of the effects. A warmer (+2.3 °C) and drier climate (-7.4% soil moisture content) was created with greenhouses. The variation of microbial population abundance and community structure of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA), bacteria (AOB), and denitrifiers (nirK/S, nosZ) were determined using real-time PCR and high-throughput sequencing. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions under the greenhouse following urea application significantly increased N 2 O emissions. There was also a moderate legacy effect on the N 2 O emissions when the greenhouses were removed in the urea treatment, although this effect only lasted a short period of time (about 60 days). The simulated climate change conditions changed the composition of AOA with the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage increasing significantly. The abundance of all the functional denitrifier genes decreased significantly under the simulated climate change conditions and the legacy effect, after the removal of greenhouses, significantly increased the abundance of AOB, AOA (mainly the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage), and nirK and nosZ genes in the urea-treated soil. In general, the effect of the simulated climate change was short-lived, with the denitrifier communities being able to return to ambient levels after a period of adaptation to ambient conditions. Therefore, the legacy effect of simulated short-time climate change conditions on the ammonia oxidizer and denitrifier communities and N 2 O emissions were temporary and once the conditions were removed, the microbial communities were able to adapt to the ambient conditions.

Maximum likelihood estimation for periodic autoregressive moving average models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, A.V.

1985-01-01

A useful class of models for seasonal time series that cannot be filtered or standardized to achieve second-order stationarity is that of periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) models, which are extensions of ARMA models that allow periodic (seasonal) parameters. An approximation to the exact likelihood for Gaussian PARMA processes is developed, and a straightforward algorithm for its maximization is presented. The algorithm is tested on several periodic ARMA(1, 1) models through simulation studies and is compared to moment estimation via the seasonal Yule-Walker equations. Applicability of the technique is demonstrated through an analysis of a seasonal stream-flow series from the Rio Caroni River in Venezuela.

Diffraction pattern simulation of cellulose fibrils using distributed and quantized pair distances

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Yan; Inouye, Hideyo; Crowley, Michael; ...

2016-10-14

Intensity simulation of X-ray scattering from large twisted cellulose molecular fibrils is important in understanding the impact of chemical or physical treatments on structural properties such as twisting or coiling. This paper describes a highly efficient method for the simulation of X-ray diffraction patterns from complex fibrils using atom-type-specific pair-distance quantization. Pair distances are sorted into arrays which are labelled by atom type. Histograms of pair distances in each array are computed and binned and the resulting population distributions are used to represent the whole pair-distance data set. These quantized pair-distance arrays are used with a modified and vectorized Debyemore » formula to simulate diffraction patterns. This approach utilizes fewer pair distances in each iteration, and atomic scattering factors are moved outside the iteration since the arrays are labelled by atom type. As a result, this algorithm significantly reduces the computation time while maintaining the accuracy of diffraction pattern simulation, making possible the simulation of diffraction patterns from large twisted fibrils in a relatively short period of time, as is required for model testing and refinement.« less

Diffraction pattern simulation of cellulose fibrils using distributed and quantized pair distances

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yan; Inouye, Hideyo; Crowley, Michael

Intensity simulation of X-ray scattering from large twisted cellulose molecular fibrils is important in understanding the impact of chemical or physical treatments on structural properties such as twisting or coiling. This paper describes a highly efficient method for the simulation of X-ray diffraction patterns from complex fibrils using atom-type-specific pair-distance quantization. Pair distances are sorted into arrays which are labelled by atom type. Histograms of pair distances in each array are computed and binned and the resulting population distributions are used to represent the whole pair-distance data set. These quantized pair-distance arrays are used with a modified and vectorized Debyemore » formula to simulate diffraction patterns. This approach utilizes fewer pair distances in each iteration, and atomic scattering factors are moved outside the iteration since the arrays are labelled by atom type. This algorithm significantly reduces the computation time while maintaining the accuracy of diffraction pattern simulation, making possible the simulation of diffraction patterns from large twisted fibrils in a relatively short period of time, as is required for model testing and refinement.« less

Diffraction pattern simulation of cellulose fibrils using distributed and quantized pair distances

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yan; Inouye, Hideyo; Crowley, Michael

Intensity simulation of X-ray scattering from large twisted cellulose molecular fibrils is important in understanding the impact of chemical or physical treatments on structural properties such as twisting or coiling. This paper describes a highly efficient method for the simulation of X-ray diffraction patterns from complex fibrils using atom-type-specific pair-distance quantization. Pair distances are sorted into arrays which are labelled by atom type. Histograms of pair distances in each array are computed and binned and the resulting population distributions are used to represent the whole pair-distance data set. These quantized pair-distance arrays are used with a modified and vectorized Debyemore » formula to simulate diffraction patterns. This approach utilizes fewer pair distances in each iteration, and atomic scattering factors are moved outside the iteration since the arrays are labelled by atom type. As a result, this algorithm significantly reduces the computation time while maintaining the accuracy of diffraction pattern simulation, making possible the simulation of diffraction patterns from large twisted fibrils in a relatively short period of time, as is required for model testing and refinement.« less

Status, trends, and changes in freshwater inflows to bay systems in the Corpus Christi Bay National Estuary Program study area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, W.H.; Mosier, J. G.; Bush, P.W.

1997-01-01

The watershed simulation model Hydrologic Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF) was used to generate simulated flow (runoff) from the 13 watersheds to the six bay systems because adequate gaged streamflow data from which to estimate freshwater inflows are not available; only about 23 percent of the adjacent contributing watershed area is gaged. The model was calibrated for the gaged parts of three watersheds—that is, selected input parameters (meteorologic and hydrologic properties and conditions) that control runoff were adjusted in a series of simulations until an adequate match between model-generated flows and a set (time series) of gaged flows was achieved. The primary model input is rainfall and evaporation data and the model output is a time series of runoff volumes. After calibration, simulations driven by daily rainfall for a 26-year period (1968–93) were done for the 13 watersheds to obtain runoff under current (1983–93), predevelopment (pre-1940 streamflow and pre-urbanization), and future (2010) land-use conditions for estimating freshwater inflows and for comparing runoff under the three land-use conditions; and to obtain time series of runoff from which to estimate time series of freshwater inflows for trend analysis.

A GPU-based framework for modeling real-time 3D lung tumor conformal dosimetry with subject-specific lung tumor motion.

PubMed

Min, Yugang; Santhanam, Anand; Neelakkantan, Harini; Ruddy, Bari H; Meeks, Sanford L; Kupelian, Patrick A

2010-09-07

In this paper, we present a graphics processing unit (GPU)-based simulation framework to calculate the delivered dose to a 3D moving lung tumor and its surrounding normal tissues, which are undergoing subject-specific lung deformations. The GPU-based simulation framework models the motion of the 3D volumetric lung tumor and its surrounding tissues, simulates the dose delivery using the dose extracted from a treatment plan using Pinnacle Treatment Planning System, Phillips, for one of the 3DCTs of the 4DCT and predicts the amount and location of radiation doses deposited inside the lung. The 4DCT lung datasets were registered with each other using a modified optical flow algorithm. The motion of the tumor and the motion of the surrounding tissues were simulated by measuring the changes in lung volume during the radiotherapy treatment using spirometry. The real-time dose delivered to the tumor for each beam is generated by summing the dose delivered to the target volume at each increase in lung volume during the beam delivery time period. The simulation results showed the real-time capability of the framework at 20 discrete tumor motion steps per breath, which is higher than the number of 4DCT steps (approximately 12) reconstructed during multiple breathing cycles.

Non-Linear Harmonic flow simulations of a High-Head Francis Turbine test case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lestriez, R.; Amet, E.; Tartinville, B.; Hirsch, C.

2016-11-01

This work investigates the use of the non-linear harmonic (NLH) method for a high- head Francis turbine, the Francis99 workshop test case. The NLH method relies on a Fourier decomposition of the unsteady flow components in harmonics of Blade Passing Frequencies (BPF), which are the fundamentals of the periodic disturbances generated by the adjacent blade rows. The unsteady flow solution is obtained by marching in pseudo-time to a steady-state solution of the transport equations associated with the time-mean, the BPFs and their harmonics. Thanks to this transposition into frequency domain, meshing only one blade channel is sufficient, like for a steady flow simulation. Notable benefits in terms of computing costs and engineering time can therefore be obtained compared to classical time marching approach using sliding grid techniques. The method has been applied for three operating points of the Francis99 workshop high-head Francis turbine. Steady and NLH flow simulations have been carried out for these configurations. Impact of the grid size and near-wall refinement is analysed on all operating points for steady simulations and for Best Efficiency Point (BEP) for NLH simulations. Then, NLH results for a selected grid size are compared for the three different operating points, reproducing the tendencies observed in the experiment.

Contribution to the modeling of solar spicules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavabi, E.; Koutchmy, S.; Ajabshirizadeh, A.

2011-06-01

Solar limb and disk spicule quasi-periodic motions have been reported for a long time, strongly suggesting that they are oscillating. In order to clear up the origin and possibly explain some solar limb and disk spicule quasi-periodic recurrences produced by overlapping effects, we present a simulation model assuming quasi-random positions of spicules. We also allow a set number of spicules with different physical properties (such as: height, lifetime and tilt angle as shown by an individual spicule) occurring randomly. Results of simulations made with three different spatial resolutions of the corresponding frames and also for different number density of spicules, are analyzed. The wavelet time/frequency method is used to obtain the exact period of spicule visibility. Results are compared with observations of the chromosphere from (i) the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) filtergrams taken at 1600 Å, (ii) the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) of Hinode taken in the Ca II H-line and (iii) the Sac-Peak Dunn's VTT taken in Hα line. Our results suggest the need to be cautious when interpreting apparent oscillations seen in spicule image sequences when overlapping is present, i.e., when the spatial resolution is not enough to resolve individual components of spicules.

Non-isothermal processes during the drying of bare soil: Model Development and Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleep, B.; Talebi, A.; O'Carrol, D. M.

2017-12-01

Several coupled liquid water, water vapor, and heat transfer models have been developed either to study non-isothermal processes in the subsurface immediately below the ground surface, or to predict the evaporative flux from the ground surface. Equilibrium phase change between water and gas phases is typically assumed in these models. Recently, a few studies have questioned this assumption and proposed a coupled model considering kinetic phase change. However, none of these models were validated against real field data. In this study, a non-isothermal coupled model incorporating kinetic phase change was developed and examined against the measured data from a green roof test module. The model also incorporated a new surface boundary condition for water vapor transport at the ground surface. The measured field data included soil moisture content and temperature at different depths up to the depth of 15 cm below the ground surface. Lysimeter data were collected to determine the evaporation rates. Short and long wave radiation, wind velocity, air ambient temperature and relative humidity were measured and used as model input. Field data were collected for a period of three months during the warm seasons in south eastern Canada. The model was calibrated using one drying period and then several other drying periods were simulated. In general, the model underestimated the evaporation rates in the early stage of the drying period, however, the cumulative evaporation was in good agreement with the field data. The model predicted the trends in temperature and moisture content at the different depths in the green roof module. The simulated temperature was lower than the measured temperature for most of the simulation time with the maximum difference of 5 ° C. The simulated moisture content changes had the same temporal trend as the lysimeter data for the events simulated.

Study of Flapping Flight Using Discrete Vortex Method Based Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devranjan, S.; Jalikop, Shreyas V.; Sreenivas, K. R.

2013-12-01

In recent times, research in the area of flapping flight has attracted renewed interest with an endeavor to use this mechanism in Micro Air vehicles (MAVs). For a sustained and high-endurance flight, having larger payload carrying capacity we need to identify a simple and efficient flapping-kinematics. In this paper, we have used flow visualizations and Discrete Vortex Method (DVM) based simulations for the study of flapping flight. Our results highlight that simple flapping kinematics with down-stroke period (tD) shorter than the upstroke period (tU) would produce a sustained lift. We have identified optimal asymmetry ratio (Ar = tD/tU), for which flapping-wings will produce maximum lift and find that introducing optimal wing flexibility will further enhances the lift.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rockhold, Mark L.; White, Mark D.; Freeman, Eugene J.

This letter report documents initial numerical analyses conducted by PNNL to provide support for a feasibility study on decommissioning of the canyon buildings at Hanford. The 221-U facility is the first of the major canyon buildings to be decommissioned. The specific objective of this modeling effort was to provide estimates of potential rates of migration of residual contaminants out of the 221-U facility during the first 40 years after decommissioning. If minimal contaminant migration is predicted to occur from the facility during this time period, then the structure may be deemed to provide a level of groundwater protection that ismore » essentially equivalent to the liner and leachate collection systems that are required at conventional landfills. The STOMP code was used to simulate transport of selected radionuclides out of a canyon building, representative of the 221-U facility after decommissioning, for a period of 40 years. Simulation results indicate that none of the selected radionuclides that were modeled migrated beyond the concrete structure of the facility during the 40-year period of interest. Jacques (2001) identified other potential contaminants in the 221-U facility that were not modeled, however, including kerosene, phenol, and various metals. Modeling of these contaminants was beyond the scope of this preliminary effort due to increased complexity. Simulation results indicate that contaminant release from the canyon buildings will be diffusion controlled at early times. Advection is expected to become much more important at later times, after contaminants have diffused out of the facility and into the surrounding soil environment. After contaminants have diffused out of the facility, surface infiltration covers will become very important for mitigating further transport of contaminants in the underlying vadose zone and groundwater.« less

Simulation of Ground-Water Flow and Effects of Ground-Water Irrigation on Base Flow in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins, Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Steven M.; Stanton, Jennifer S.; Saunders, Amanda T.; Bradley, Jesse R.

2008-01-01

Irrigated agriculture is vital to the livelihood of communities in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins in Nebraska, and ground water is used to irrigate most of the cropland. Concerns about the sustainability of ground-water and surface-water resources have prompted State and regional agencies to evaluate the cumulative effects of ground-water irrigation in this area. To facilitate understanding of the effects of ground-water irrigation, a numerical computer model was developed to simulate ground-water flow and assess the effects of ground-water irrigation (including ground-water withdrawals, hereinafter referred to as pumpage, and enhanced recharge) on stream base flow. The study area covers approximately 30,800 square miles, and includes the Elkhorn River Basin upstream from Norfolk, Nebraska, and the Loup River Basin upstream from Columbus, Nebraska. The water-table aquifer consists of Quaternary-age sands and gravels and Tertiary-age silts, sands, and gravels. The simulation was constructed using one layer with 2-mile by 2-mile cell size. Simulations were constructed to represent the ground-water system before 1940 and from 1940 through 2005, and to simulate hypothetical conditions from 2006 through 2045 or 2055. The first simulation represents steady-state conditions of the system before anthropogenic effects, and then simulates the effects of early surface-water development activities and recharge of water leaking from canals during 1895 to 1940. The first simulation ends at 1940 because before that time, very little pumpage for irrigation occurred, but after that time it became increasingly commonplace. The pre-1940 simulation was calibrated against measured water levels and estimated long-term base flow, and the 1940 through 2005 simulation was calibrated against measured water-level changes and estimated long-term base flow. The calibrated 1940 through 2005 simulation was used as the basis for analyzing hypothetical scenarios to evaluate the effects of ground-water irrigation on stream base flow for 1940 through 2005 and for 2006 through 2045. Simulated base flows were compared for scenarios that alternately did or did not include a representation of the effects of ground-water irrigation. The difference between simulated base flows for the two scenarios represents the predicted effects of ground-water irrigation on base flow. Comparison of base flows between simulations with ground-water irrigation and no ground-water irrigation indicated that ground-water irrigation has cumulatively reduced streamflows from 1940 through 2005 by 888,000 acre-feet in the Elkhorn River Basin and by 2,273,000 acre-feet in the Loup River Basin. Generally, predicted cumulative effects of ground-water irrigation on base flow were 5 to 10 times larger from 2006 through 2045 than from 1940 through 2005, and were 7,678,000 acre-feet for the Elkhorn River Basin and 14,784,000 acre-feet for the Loup River Basin. The calibrated simulation also was used to estimate base-flow depletion as a percentage of pumping volumes for a 50-year future time period, because base-flow depletion percentages are used to guide the placement of management boundaries in Nebraska. Mapped results of the base-flow depletion analysis conducted for most of the interior of the study area indicated that pumpage of one additional theoretical well simulated for a future 50-year period generally would result in more than 80 percent depletion when it was located close to the stream, except in areas where depletion was partly offset by reduced ground-water discharge to evapotranspiration in wetland areas. In many areas, depletion for the 50-year future period composed greater than 10 percent of the pumped water volume for theoretical wells placed less than 7 or 8 miles from the stream, though considerable variations existed because of the heterogeneity of the natural system represented in the simulation. For a few streams, predicted future simulated base flows dec

Future aerosol concentrations in Europe: Effects of changing meteorology and emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coleman, Liz; Martin, Damien; Radalescu, Razvan; O'Dowd, Colin

2013-05-01

The ambient particulate matter concentrations are assessed using annual simulations for model validation period 2006, and for future time-slice years 2030, 2050 and 2100 under RCP scenario 6.0. Meteorological initial and boundary conditions are procured from ECHAM5-HAMMOC global simulations. The contribution of natural and anthropogenic processes to aerosol concentrations are assessed with particular emphasis on accumulation mode sea salt, organic enrichment thereof and future levels of secondary organic aerosol from isoprene.

“Overview and Evaluation of AQMEII Phase 2 Coupled ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation provides an overview of the second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initative (AQMEII). Activities in this phase are focused on the application and evaluation of coupled meteorology-chemistry models to assess how well these models can simulate the observed spatio-temporal variability in the optical and radiative characteristics of atmospheric aerosols and associated feedbacks among aerosols, radiation, clouds, and precipitation. To this end, these modeling systems are being applied for annual simulations over both North America and Europe using common emissions and boundary conditions for all modeling groups. We present an overview of these common input datasets, observational datasets for model evaluation, and case studies for diagnostic evaluation. In addition to this overview, we also present results from AQMEII Phase 2 WRF/CMAQ simulations over North America for both 2006 and 2010. The time period between 2006 and 2010 was characterized by a 35% reduction in U.S. SO2 emissions and 20% reduction in U.S. NOx emissions, providing an opportunity for dynamic model evaluation by investigating the impact of emission reductions on ambient concentrations as well as aerosol/radiation feedback effects. We present results of this dynamic evaluation. We also present a brief overview of initial results from WRF-Chem and GEM-MACH simulations performed for the same time period and domain as part of AQMEII Phase 2. The National Exposu

SQUEEZE-E: The Optimal Solution for Molecular Simulations with Periodic Boundary Conditions.

PubMed

Wassenaar, Tsjerk A; de Vries, Sjoerd; Bonvin, Alexandre M J J; Bekker, Henk

2012-10-09

In molecular simulations of macromolecules, it is desirable to limit the amount of solvent in the system to avoid spending computational resources on uninteresting solvent-solvent interactions. As a consequence, periodic boundary conditions are commonly used, with a simulation box chosen as small as possible, for a given minimal distance between images. Here, we describe how such a simulation cell can be set up for ensembles, taking into account a priori available or estimable information regarding conformational flexibility. Doing so ensures that any conformation present in the input ensemble will satisfy the distance criterion during the simulation. This helps avoid periodicity artifacts due to conformational changes. The method introduces three new approaches in computational geometry: (1) The first is the derivation of an optimal packing of ensembles, for which the mathematical framework is described. (2) A new method for approximating the α-hull and the contact body for single bodies and ensembles is presented, which is orders of magnitude faster than existing routines, allowing the calculation of packings of large ensembles and/or large bodies. 3. A routine is described for searching a combination of three vectors on a discretized contact body forming a reduced base for a lattice with minimal cell volume. The new algorithms reduce the time required to calculate packings of single bodies from minutes or hours to seconds. The use and efficacy of the method is demonstrated for ensembles obtained from NMR, MD simulations, and elastic network modeling. An implementation of the method has been made available online at http://haddock.chem.uu.nl/services/SQUEEZE/ and has been made available as an option for running simulations through the weNMR GRID MD server at http://haddock.science.uu.nl/enmr/services/GROMACS/main.php .

A heat and water transfer model for seasonally frozen soils with application to a precipitation-runoff model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emerson, Douglas G.

1994-01-01

A model that simulates heat and water transfer in soils during freezing and thawing periods was developed and incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The model's transfer of heat is based on an equation developed from Fourier's equation for heat flux. The model's transfer of water within the soil profile is based on the concept of capillary forces. Field capacity and infiltration rate can vary throughout the freezing and thawing period, depending on soil conditions and rate and timing of snowmelt. The model can be used to determine the effects of seasonally frozen soils on ground-water recharge and surface-water runoff. Data collected for two winters, 1985-86 and 1986-87, on three runoff plots were used to calibrate and verify the model. The winter of 1985-86 was colder than normal, and snow cover was continuous throughout the winter. The winter of 1986-87 was warmer than normal, and snow accumulated for only short periods of several days. as the criteria for determining the degree of agreement between simulated and measured data. The model was calibrated using the 1985-86 data for plot 2. The calibration simulation agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data and for plots 1 and 2 using the 1986-87 data agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulation for plot 3 using the 1986-87 data did not agree closely. The recalibration simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data indicated little improvement because the verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 already agreed closely with the measured data.

Documentation of a heat and water transfer model for seasonally frozen soils with application to a precipitation-runoff model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emerson, Douglas G.

1991-01-01

A model that simulates heat and water transfer in soils during freezing and thawing periods was developed and incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The transfer of heat 1s based on an equation developed from Fourier's equation for heat flux. Field capacity and infiltration rate can vary throughout the freezing and thawing period, depending on soil conditions and rate and timing of snowmelt. The transfer of water within the soil profile is based on the concept of capillary forces. The model can be used to determine the effects of seasonally frozen soils on ground-water recharge and surface-water runoff. Data collected for two winters, 1985-86 and 1986-87, on three runoff plots were used to calibrate and verify the model. The winter of 1985-86 was colder than normal and snow cover was continuous throughout the winter. The winter of 1986-87 was wanner than normal and snow accumulated for only short periods of several days.Runoff, snowmelt, and frost depths were used as the criteria for determining the degree of agreement between simulated and measured data. The model was calibrated using the 1985-86 data for plot 2. The calibration simulation agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data and for plots 1 and 2 using the 1986-87 data agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulation for plot 3 using the 1986-87 data did not agree closely. The recalibratlon simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data Indicated small improvement because the verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 already agreed closely with the measured data.

Convection in a Very Compressible Fluid: Comparison of Simulations With Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, H.; Furukawa, A.; Onuki, A.; Kogan, A. B.

2003-01-01

The time profile (Delta)T(t) of the temperature difference, measured across a very compressible fluid layer of supercritical He-3 after the start of a heat flow, shows a damped oscillatory behavior before steady state convection is reached. The results for (Delta)T(t) obtained from numerical simulations and from laboratory experiments are compared over a temperature range where the compressibility varies by a factor of approx. = 40. First the steady-state convective heat current j(sup conv) as a function of the Rayleigh number R(alpha) is presented, and the agreement is found to be good. Second, the shape of the time profile and two characteristic times in the transient part of (Delta)T(t) from simulations and experiments are compared, namely: 1) t(sub osc), the oscillatory period and 2) t(sub p), the time of the first peak after starting the heat flow. These times, scaled by the diffusive time tau(sub D) versus R(alpha), are presented. The agreement is good for t(sup osc)/tau(sub D), where the results collapse on a single curve showing a powerlaw behavior. The simulation hence confirms the universal scaling behavior found experimentally. However for t(sub p)/tau(sub D), where the experimental data also collapse on a single curve, the simulation results show systematic departures from such a behavior. A possible reason for some of the disagreements, both in the time profile and in t(sub p) is discussed. In the Appendix a third characteristic time, t(sub m), between the first peak and the first oscillation minimum is plotted and a comparison between the results of experiments and simulations is made.

Near-road air pollutant concentrations of CO and PM 2.5: A comparison of MOBILE6.2/CALINE4 and generalized additive models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kai; Batterman, Stuart

2010-05-01

The contribution of vehicular traffic to air pollutant concentrations is often difficult to establish. This paper utilizes both time-series and simulation models to estimate vehicle contributions to pollutant levels near roadways. The time-series model used generalized additive models (GAMs) and fitted pollutant observations to traffic counts and meteorological variables. A one year period (2004) was analyzed on a seasonal basis using hourly measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM 2.5) monitored near a major highway in Detroit, Michigan, along with hourly traffic counts and local meteorological data. Traffic counts showed statistically significant and approximately linear relationships with CO concentrations in fall, and piecewise linear relationships in spring, summer and winter. The same period was simulated using emission and dispersion models (Motor Vehicle Emissions Factor Model/MOBILE6.2; California Line Source Dispersion Model/CALINE4). CO emissions derived from the GAM were similar, on average, to those estimated by MOBILE6.2. The same analyses for PM 2.5 showed that GAM emission estimates were much higher (by 4-5 times) than the dispersion model results, and that the traffic-PM 2.5 relationship varied seasonally. This analysis suggests that the simulation model performed reasonably well for CO, but it significantly underestimated PM 2.5 concentrations, a likely result of underestimating PM 2.5 emission factors. Comparisons between statistical and simulation models can help identify model deficiencies and improve estimates of vehicle emissions and near-road air quality.

Medication Waste Reduction in Pediatric Pharmacy Batch Processes

PubMed Central

Veltri, Michael A.; Hamrock, Eric; Mollenkopf, Nicole L.; Holt, Kristen; Levin, Scott

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To inform pediatric cart-fill batch scheduling for reductions in pharmaceutical waste using a case study and simulation analysis. METHODS: A pre and post intervention and simulation analysis was conducted during 3 months at a 205-bed children's center. An algorithm was developed to detect wasted medication based on time-stamped computerized provider order entry information. The algorithm was used to quantify pharmaceutical waste and associated costs for both preintervention (1 batch per day) and postintervention (3 batches per day) schedules. Further, simulation was used to systematically test 108 batch schedules outlining general characteristics that have an impact on the likelihood for waste. RESULTS: Switching from a 1-batch-per-day to a 3-batch-per-day schedule resulted in a 31.3% decrease in pharmaceutical waste (28.7% to 19.7%) and annual cost savings of $183,380. Simulation results demonstrate how increasing batch frequency facilitates a more just-in-time process that reduces waste. The most substantial gains are realized by shifting from a schedule of 1 batch per day to at least 2 batches per day. The simulation exhibits how waste reduction is also achievable by avoiding batch preparation during daily time periods where medication administration or medication discontinuations are frequent. Last, the simulation was used to show how reducing batch preparation time per batch provides some, albeit minimal, opportunity to decrease waste. CONCLUSIONS: The case study and simulation analysis demonstrate characteristics of batch scheduling that may support pediatric pharmacy managers in redesign toward minimizing pharmaceutical waste. PMID:25024671

Medication waste reduction in pediatric pharmacy batch processes.

PubMed

Toerper, Matthew F; Veltri, Michael A; Hamrock, Eric; Mollenkopf, Nicole L; Holt, Kristen; Levin, Scott

2014-04-01

To inform pediatric cart-fill batch scheduling for reductions in pharmaceutical waste using a case study and simulation analysis. A pre and post intervention and simulation analysis was conducted during 3 months at a 205-bed children's center. An algorithm was developed to detect wasted medication based on time-stamped computerized provider order entry information. The algorithm was used to quantify pharmaceutical waste and associated costs for both preintervention (1 batch per day) and postintervention (3 batches per day) schedules. Further, simulation was used to systematically test 108 batch schedules outlining general characteristics that have an impact on the likelihood for waste. Switching from a 1-batch-per-day to a 3-batch-per-day schedule resulted in a 31.3% decrease in pharmaceutical waste (28.7% to 19.7%) and annual cost savings of $183,380. Simulation results demonstrate how increasing batch frequency facilitates a more just-in-time process that reduces waste. The most substantial gains are realized by shifting from a schedule of 1 batch per day to at least 2 batches per day. The simulation exhibits how waste reduction is also achievable by avoiding batch preparation during daily time periods where medication administration or medication discontinuations are frequent. Last, the simulation was used to show how reducing batch preparation time per batch provides some, albeit minimal, opportunity to decrease waste. The case study and simulation analysis demonstrate characteristics of batch scheduling that may support pediatric pharmacy managers in redesign toward minimizing pharmaceutical waste.

A 2000-year European Mean Summer Temperature Reconstruction from the PAGES 2k Regional Network and Comparison to Millennium-Length Forced Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerdon, J. E.; Büntgen, U.; Ljungqvist, F. C.; Esper, J.; Fernández-Donado, L.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F. J.; Luterbacher, J.; McCarroll, D.; Wagner, S.; Wahl, E. R.; Wanner, H.; Werner, J.; Zorita, E.

2012-12-01

A reconstruction of mean European summer (JJA) land temperatures from 138 B.C.E. to 2003 C.E. is presented and compared to 37 forced transient simulations of the last millennium from coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). Eleven annually resolved tree-ring and documentary records from ten European countries/regions were used for the reconstruction and compiled as part of the Euro_Med working group contribution to the PAGES 2k Regional Network. Records were selected based upon their summer temperature signal, annual resolution, and time-continuous sampling. All tree-ring data were detrended using the Regional Curve Standardization (RCS) method to retain low-frequency variance in the resulting mean chronologies. The calibration time series was the area-weighted JJA temperature computed from the CRUTEM4v dataset over a European land domain (35°-70°N, 10°W-40°E). A nested 'Composite-Plus-Scale' reconstruction was derived using nine nests reflecting the availability of predictors back in time. Each nest was calculated by standardizing the available predictor series over the calibration interval, and subsequently calculating a weighted composite in which each proxy was multiplied by its correlation with the target index. The CPS methodology was implemented using a resampling scheme that uses 104 years for calibration. The initial calibration period extended from 1850-1953 C.E. and was incremented by one year until reaching the final period of 1900-2003 C.E., yielding a total of 51 reconstructions for each nest. Within each calibration step, the 50 years excluded from calibration were used for validation. Validation statistics across all reconstruction ensemble members within each nest indicate skillful reconstructions (RE: 0.42-0.64; CE: 0.26-0.54) and are all above the maximum validation statistics achieved in an ensemble of red noise benchmarking experiments. Warm periods in the derived reconstruction during the 1st, 2nd, and 7th-12th centuries compare to similar warm summer temperatures during the mid 20th century, although the 2003 summer remains the warmest single summer over the duration of the reconstruction. A relative period of cold summer temperatures is also noted from the 14th-19th centuries, consistent with the expected timing of the Little Ice Age. The nested CPS reconstruction is also compared to a 37-member ensemble of millennium-length forced transient simulations from CGCMs, including eleven simulations from the collection of CMIP5/PMIP3 last-millennium experiments. The simulations are separated based on their use of strong or weak scaling of total solar irradiance (TSI) forcing over the last millennium. Although both ensembles of simulated mean European temperatures compare well with the nested CPS reconstruction, there is some evidence that there is better agreement with the ensemble using strong TSI as forcing.

Evaluation of approaches focused on modelling of organic carbon stocks using the RothC model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koco, Štefan; Skalský, Rastislav; Makovníková, Jarmila; Tarasovičová, Zuzana; Barančíková, Gabriela

2014-05-01

The aim of current efforts in the European area is the protection of soil organic matter, which is included in all relevant documents related to the protection of soil. The use of modelling of organic carbon stocks for anticipated climate change, respectively for land management can significantly help in short and long-term forecasting of the state of soil organic matter. RothC model can be applied in the time period of several years to centuries and has been tested in long-term experiments within a large range of soil types and climatic conditions in Europe. For the initialization of the RothC model, knowledge about the carbon pool sizes is essential. Pool size characterization can be obtained from equilibrium model runs, but this approach is time consuming and tedious, especially for larger scale simulations. Due to this complexity we search for new possibilities how to simplify and accelerate this process. The paper presents a comparison of two approaches for SOC stocks modelling in the same area. The modelling has been carried out on the basis of unique input of land use, management and soil data for each simulation unit separately. We modeled 1617 simulation units of 1x1 km grid on the territory of agroclimatic region Žitný ostrov in the southwest of Slovakia. The first approach represents the creation of groups of simulation units based on the evaluation of results for simulation unit with similar input values. The groups were created after the testing and validation of modelling results for individual simulation units with results of modelling the average values of inputs for the whole group. Tests of equilibrium model for interval in the range 5 t.ha-1 from initial SOC stock showed minimal differences in results comparing with result for average value of whole interval. Management inputs data from plant residues and farmyard manure for modelling of carbon turnover were also the same for more simulation units. Combining these groups (intervals of initial SOC stock, groups of plant residues inputs, groups of farmyard manure inputs), we created 661 simulation groups. Within the group, for all simulation units we used average values of inputs. Export of input data and modelling has been carried out manually in the graphic environment of RothC 26.3 v2.0 application for each group separately. SOC stocks were modeled for 661 groups of simulation units. For the second possibility we used RothC 26.3 version for DOS. The inputs for modelling were exported using VBA scripts in the environment of MS Access program. Equilibrium modelling for more variations of plant residues inputs was performed. Subsequently we selected the nearest value of total pool size to the real initial SOC stock value. All simulation units (1617) were automatically modeled by means of the predefined Batch File. The comparison of two methods of modelling showed spatial differentiation of results mainly with the increasing time of modelling period. In the time sequence, from initial period we mark the increasing the number of simulation units with differences in SOC stocks according to selected approaches. Observed differences suggest that the results of modelling obtained by inputs generalization should be taken into account with a certain degree of reserve. At large scales simulations it is more appropriate to use the DOS version of RothC 26.3 model which allows automated modelling. This reduces the time needed for model operation, without the necessity to look for the possibilities of minimizing the simulated units. Key words Soil organic carbon stock, modelling, RothC 26.3, agricultural soils, Slovakia Acknowledgements This work was supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under the contract No. APVV-0580-10 and APVV-0131-11.

Constructing a multidimensional free energy surface like a spider weaving a web.

PubMed

Chen, Changjun

2017-10-15

Complete free energy surface in the collective variable space provides important information of the reaction mechanisms of the molecules. But, sufficient sampling in the collective variable space is not easy. The space expands quickly with the number of the collective variables. To solve the problem, many methods utilize artificial biasing potentials to flatten out the original free energy surface of the molecule in the simulation. Their performances are sensitive to the definitions of the biasing potentials. Fast-growing biasing potential accelerates the sampling speed but decreases the accuracy of the free energy result. Slow-growing biasing potential gives an optimized result but needs more simulation time. In this article, we propose an alternative method. It adds the biasing potential to a representative point of the molecule in the collective variable space to improve the conformational sampling. And the free energy surface is calculated from the free energy gradient in the constrained simulation, not given by the negative of the biasing potential as previous methods. So the presented method does not require the biasing potential to remove all the barriers and basins on the free energy surface exactly. Practical applications show that the method in this work is able to produce the accurate free energy surfaces for different molecules in a short time period. The free energy errors are small in the cases of various biasing potentials. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Reactive simulation of the chemistry behind the condensed-phase ignition of RDX from hot spots.

PubMed

Joshi, Kaushik L; Chaudhuri, Santanu

2015-07-28

Chemical events that lead to thermal initiation and spontaneous ignition of the high-pressure phase of RDX are presented using reactive molecular dynamics simulations. In order to initiate the chemistry behind thermal ignition, approximately 5% of RDX crystal is subjected to a constant temperature thermal pulse for various time durations to create a hot spot. After application of the thermal pulse, the ensuing chemical evolution of the system is monitored using reactive molecular dynamics under adiabatic conditions. Thermal pulses lasting longer than certain time durations lead to the spontaneous ignition of RDX after an incubation period. For cases where the ignition is observed, the incubation period is dominated by intermolecular and intramolecular hydrogen transfer reactions. Contrary to the widely accepted unimolecular models of initiation chemistry, N-N bond dissociations that produce NO2 species are suppressed in the condensed phase. The gradual temperature and pressure increase in the incubation period is accompanied by the accumulation of short-lived, heavier polyradicals. The polyradicals contain intact triazine rings from the RDX molecules. At certain temperatures and pressures, the polyradicals undergo ring-opening reactions, which fuel a series of rapid exothermic chemical reactions leading to a thermal runaway regime with stable gas-products such as N2, H2O and CO2. The evolution of the RDX crystal throughout the thermal initiation, incubation and thermal runaway phases observed in the reactive simulations contains a rich diversity of condensed-phase chemistry of nitramines under high-temperature/pressure conditions.

Evolution of Field-Aligned Electron and Ion Densities From Whistler Mode Radio Soundings During Quiet to Moderately Active Period and Comparisons With SAMI2 Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, A.; Sonwalkar, V. S.; Huba, J. D.

2018-02-01

Knowledge of field-aligned electron and ion distributions is necessary for understanding the physical processes causing variations in field-aligned electron and ion densities. Using whistler mode sounding by Radio Plasma Imager/Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (RPI/IMAGE), we determined the evolution of dayside electron and ion densities along L ˜ 2 and L ˜ 3 (90-4,000 km) during a 7 day (21-27 November 2005) geomagnetically quiet to moderately active period. Over this period the O+/H+ transition height was ˜880 ± 60 km and ˜1000 ± 100 km, respectively, at L ˜ 2 and L ˜ 3. The electron density varied in a complex manner; it was different at L ˜ 2 and L ˜ 3 and below and above the O+/H+ transition height. The measured electron and ion densities are consistent with those from Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and other past measurements, but they deviated from bottomside sounding and International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2012 empirical model results. Using SAMI2 (Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) ionosphere model) with reasonably adjusted values of inputs (neutral densities, winds, electric fields, and photoelectron heating), we simulated the evolution of O+/H+ transition height and field-aligned electron and ion densities so that a fair agreement was obtained between the simulation results and observations. Simulation studies indicated that reduced neutral densities (H and/or O) with time limited O+-H charge exchange process. This reduction in neutral densities combined with changes in neutral winds and plasma temperature led to the observed variations in the electron and ion densities. The observation/simulation method presented here can be extended to investigate the role of neutral densities and composition, disturbed winds, and prompt penetration electric fields in the storm time ionosphere/plasmasphere dynamics.

Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, F.; Joos, F.; Raible, C. C.; Mignot, J.; Born, A.; Keller, K. M.; Stocker, T. F.

2015-02-01

Under the protocols of the Paleoclimate and Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Projects a number of simulations were produced that provide a range of potential climate evolutions from the last millennium to the end of the current century. Here, we present the first simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes an interactive carbon cycle, that continuously covers the last millennium, the historical period, and the twenty-first century. Besides state-of-the-art forcing reconstructions, we apply a modified reconstruction of total solar irradiance to shed light on the issue of forcing uncertainty in the context of the last millennium. Nevertheless, we find that structural uncertainties between different models can still dominate over forcing uncertainty for quantities such as hemispheric temperatures or the land and ocean carbon cycle response. Comparing with other model simulations we find forced decadal-scale variability to occur mainly after volcanic eruptions, while during other periods internal variability masks potentially forced signals and calls for larger ensembles in paleoclimate modeling studies. At the same time, we fail to attribute millennial temperature trends to orbital forcing, as has been suggested recently. The climate-carbon cycle sensitivity in CESM during the last millennium is estimated to be about 1.3 ppm °C-1. However, the dependence of this sensitivity on the exact time period and scale illustrates the prevailing challenge of deriving robust constrains on this quantity from paleoclimate proxies. In particular, the response of the land carbon cycle to volcanic forcing shows fundamental differences between different models. In CESM the tropical land dictates the response to volcanoes with a distinct behavior for large and moderate eruptions. Under anthropogenic emissions, global land and ocean carbon uptake rates emerge from the envelope of interannual natural variability as simulated for the last millennium by about year 1947 and 1877, respectively.

Paramagnetic colloids: Chaotic routes to clusters and molecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdi, Hamed; Soheilian, Rasam; Erb, Randall M.; Maloney, Craig E.

2018-03-01

We present computer simulations and experiments on dilute suspensions of superparamagnetic particles subject to rotating magnetic fields. We focus on chains of four particles and their decay routes to stable structures. At low rates, the chains track the external field. At intermediate rates, the chains break up but perform a periodic (albeit complex) motion. At sufficiently high rates, the chains generally undergo chaotic motion at short times and decay to either closely packed clusters or more dispersed, colloidal molecules at long times. We show that the transition out of the chaotic states can be described as a Poisson process in both simulation and experiment.

Application of Satellite SAR Imagery in Mapping the Active Layer of Arctic Permafrost

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Ting-Jun; Li, Shu-Sun

2003-01-01

The objective of this project is to map the spatial variation of the active layer over the arctic permafrost in terms of two parameters: (i) timing and duration of thaw period and (ii) differential frost heave and thaw settlement of the active layer. To achieve this goal, remote sensing, numerical modeling, and related field measurements are required. Tasks for the University of Colorado team are to: (i) determine the timing of snow disappearance in spring through changes in surface albedo (ii) simulate the freezing and thawing processes of the active layer and (iii) simulate the impact of snow cover on permafrost presence.

Quasielastic neutron scattering measurements and ab initio MD-simulations on single ion motions in molten NaF

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Demmel, F.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Department of Materials, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2AZ

2016-01-07

The ionic stochastic motions in the molten alkali halide NaF are investigated by quasielastic neutron scattering and first principles molecular dynamics simulation. Quasielastic neutron scattering was employed to extract the diffusion behavior of the sodium ions in the melt. An extensive first principles based simulation on a box of up to 512 particles has been performed to complement the experimental data. From that large box, a smaller 64-particle box has then been simulated over a runtime of 60 ps. A good agreement between calculated and neutron data on the level of spectral shape has been obtained. The obtained sodium diffusionmore » coefficients agree very well. The simulation predicts a fluorine diffusion coefficient similar to the sodium one. Applying the Nernst-Einstein equation, a remarkable large cross correlation between both ions can be deduced. The velocity cross correlations demonstrate a positive correlation between the ions over a period of 0.1 ps. That strong correlation is evidence that the unlike ions do not move completely statistically independent and have a strong association over a short period of time.« less

The promise of the state space approach to time series analysis for nursing research.

PubMed

Levy, Janet A; Elser, Heather E; Knobel, Robin B

2012-01-01

Nursing research, particularly related to physiological development, often depends on the collection of time series data. The state space approach to time series analysis has great potential to answer exploratory questions relevant to physiological development but has not been used extensively in nursing. The aim of the study was to introduce the state space approach to time series analysis and demonstrate potential applicability to neonatal monitoring and physiology. We present a set of univariate state space models; each one describing a process that generates a variable of interest over time. Each model is presented algebraically and a realization of the process is presented graphically from simulated data. This is followed by a discussion of how the model has been or may be used in two nursing projects on neonatal physiological development. The defining feature of the state space approach is the decomposition of the series into components that are functions of time; specifically, slowly varying level, faster varying periodic, and irregular components. State space models potentially simulate developmental processes where a phenomenon emerges and disappears before stabilizing, where the periodic component may become more regular with time, or where the developmental trajectory of a phenomenon is irregular. The ultimate contribution of this approach to nursing science will require close collaboration and cross-disciplinary education between nurses and statisticians.

Predicting Long-term Temperature Increase for Time-Dependent SAR Levels with a Single Short-term Temperature Response

PubMed Central

Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M.

2015-01-01

Purpose Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). Methods After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and Impulse-Response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes’ bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. Results The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time, and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. Conclusion With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. (200/200 words) PMID:26096947

The MHD simulation of interplanetary space and heliosphere by using the boundary conditions of time-varying magnetic field and IPS-based plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, K.; Tokumaru, M.; Kojima, M.; Fujiki, K.

2008-12-01

We present our new boundary treatment to introduce the temporal variation of the observation-based magnetic field and plasma parameters on the inner boundary sphere (at 30 to 50 Rs) to the MHD simulation of the interplanetary space and the simulation results. The boundary treatment to induce the time-variation of the magnetic field including the radial component is essentially same as shown in our previous AGU meetings and newly modified so that the model can also include the variation of the plasma variables detected by IPS (interplanetary scintillation) observation, a ground-based remote sensing technique for the solar wind plasma. We used the WSO (Wilcox Solar Observatory at Stanford University) for the solar magnetic field input. By using the time-varying boundary condition, smooth variations of heliospheric MHD variables during the several Carrington solar rotation period are obtained. The simulation movie will show how the changes in the inner heliosphere observable by the ground-based instrument propagate outward and affects the outer heliosphere. The simulated MHD variables are compared with the Ulysses in-situ measurement data including ones made during its travel from the Earth to Jupiter for validation, and we obtain better agreements than with the simulation with fixed boundary conditions.

Simulation of Ground Winds Time Series for the NASA Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adelfang, Stanley I.

2008-01-01

Simulation of wind time series based on power spectrum density (PSD) and spectral coherence models for ground wind turbulence is described. The wind models, originally developed for the Shuttle program, are based on wind measurements at the NASA 150-m meteorological tower at Cape Canaveral, FL. The current application is for the design and/or protection of the CLV from wind effects during on-pad exposure during periods from as long as days prior to launch, to seconds or minutes just prior to launch and seconds after launch. The evaluation of vehicle response to wind will influence the design and operation of constraint systems for support of the on-pad vehicle. Longitudinal and lateral wind component time series are simulated at critical vehicle locations. The PSD model for wind turbulence is a function of mean wind speed, elevation and temporal frequency. Integration of the PSD equation over a selected frequency range yields the variance of the time series to be simulated. The square root of the PSD defines a low-pass filter that is applied to adjust the components of the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of Gaussian white noise. The first simulated time series near the top of the launch vehicle is the inverse transform of the adjusted FFT. Simulation of the wind component time series at the nearest adjacent location (and all other succeeding next nearest locations) is based on a model for the coherence between winds at two locations as a function of frequency and separation distance, where the adjacent locations are separated vertically and/or horizontally. The coherence function is used to calculate a coherence weighted FFT of the wind at the next nearest location, given the FFT of the simulated time series at the previous location and the essentially incoherent FFT of the wind at the selected location derived a priori from the PSD model. The simulated time series at each adjacent location is the inverse Fourier transform of the coherence weighted FFT. For a selected design case, the equations, the process and the simulated time series at multiple vehicle stations are presented.

Effectiveness of a poverty simulation in Second Life®: changing nursing student attitudes toward poor people.

PubMed

Menzel, Nancy; Willson, Laura Helen; Doolen, Jessica

2014-03-11

Social justice is a fundamental value of the nursing profession, challenging educators to instill this professional value when caring for the poor. This randomized controlled trial examined whether an interactive virtual poverty simulation created in Second Life® would improve nursing students' empathy with and attributions for people living in poverty, compared to a self-study module. We created a multi-user virtual environment populated with families and individual avatars that represented the demographics contributing to poverty and vulnerability. Participants (N = 51 baccalaureate nursing students) were randomly assigned to either Intervention or Control groups and completed the modified Attitudes toward Poverty Scale pre- and post-intervention. The 2.5-hour simulation was delivered three times over a 1-year period to students in successive community health nursing classes. The investigators conducted post-simulation debriefings following a script. While participants in the virtual poverty simulation developed significantly more favorable attitudes on five questions than the Control group, the total scores did not differ significantly. Whereas students readily learned how to navigate inside Second Life®, faculty facilitators required periodic coaching and guidance to be competent. While poverty simulations, whether virtual or face-to-face, have some ability to transform nursing student attitudes, faculty must incorporate social justice concepts throughout the curriculum to produce lasting change.

Temporal profile of prolonged, night-time driving performance: breaks from driving temporarily reduce time-on-task fatigue but not sleepiness.

PubMed

Phipps-Nelson, Jo; Redman, Jennifer R; Rajaratnam, Shantha M W

2011-09-01

Breaks are often used by drivers to counteract sleepiness and time-on-task fatigue during prolonged driving. We examined the temporal profile of changes in driving performance, electroencephalogram (EEG) activity and subjective measures of sleepiness and fatigue during prolonged nocturnal driving in a car simulator. In addition, the study examined the impact of regular breaks from driving on performance, sleepiness and fatigue. Healthy volunteers (n=12, 23-45 years) maintained a regular sleep-wake pattern for 14 days and were then in a laboratory from 21:00 to 08:30 hours. The driving simulator scene was designed to simulate monotonous night-time rural driving. Participants drove 4 × 2-h test sessions, with a break from driving of 1 h between each session. During the break participants performed tests assessing sleepiness and fatigue, and psychomotor performance (~30 mins), and then were permitted to sit quietly. They were monitored for wakefulness, and not permitted to nap or ingest caffeine. EEG was recorded during the driving task, and subjective assessments of sleepiness and fatigue were obtained at the start and completion of each session. We found that driving performance deteriorated (2.5-fold), EEG delta, theta and alpha activity increased, and subjective sleepiness and fatigue ratings increased across the testing period. Driving performance and fatigue ratings improved following the scheduled breaks from driving, while the breaks did not affect EEG activity and subjective sleepiness. Time-on-task effects increased through the testing period, indicating that these effects are exacerbated by increasing sleepiness. Breaks from driving without sleep temporarily ameliorate time-on-task fatigue, but provide little benefit to the sleepy driver. © 2010 European Sleep Research Society.

Voluntary autonomous simulator based training in minimally invasive surgery, residents' compliance and reflection.

PubMed

van Empel, Pieter J; Verdam, Mathilde G E; Strypet, Magnus; van Rijssen, Lennart B; Huirne, Judith A; Scheele, Fedde; Bonjer, H Jaap; Meijerink, W Jeroen

2012-01-01

Knot tying and suturing skills in minimally invasive surgery (MIS) differ markedly from those in open surgery. Appropriate MIS training is mandatory before implementation into practice. The Advanced Suturing Course (ASC) is a structured simulator based training course that includes a 6-week autonomous training period at home on a traditional laparoscopic box trainer. Previous research did not demonstrate a significant progress in laparoscopic skills after this training period. This study aims to identify factors determining autonomous training on a laparoscopic box trainer at home. Residents (n = 97) attending 1 of 7 ASC courses between January 2009 and June 2011 were consecutively included. After 6 weeks of autonomous, training a questionnaire was completed. A random subgroup of 30 residents was requested to keep a time log. All residents received an online survey after attending the ASC. We performed outcome comparison to examine the accuracy of individual responses. Out of 97 residents, the main motives for noncompliant autonomous training included a lack of (training) time after working hours (n = 80, 83.3%), preferred practice time during working hours (n = 76, 31.6%), or another surgical interest than MIS (n = 79, 15.2%). Previously set training goals would encourage autonomous training according to 27.8% (n = 18) of residents. Thirty participants submitted a time log and reported an average 76.5-minute weekly training time. All residents confirmed that autonomous home practice on a laparoscopic box trainer is valuable. Autonomous practice should be structured and inclusive of adequate and sufficient feedback points. A minimally required practice time should be set. An obligatory assessment, including corresponding consequence should be conducted. Compliance herewith may result in increased voluntary (autonomous) simulator based (laparoscopic) training by residents. Copyright © 2012 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Build an Earthquake City! Grades 6-8.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rushton, Erik; Ryan, Emily; Swift, Charles

In this activity, students build a city out of sugar cubes, bouillon cubes, and gelatin cubes. The city is then put through simulated earthquakes to see which cube structures withstand the shaking the best. This activity requires a 50-minute time period for completion. (Author/SOE)

Allothermal steam gasification of biomass in cyclic multi-compartment bubbling fluidized-bed gasifier/combustor - new reactor concept.

PubMed

Iliuta, Ion; Leclerc, Arnaud; Larachi, Faïçal

2010-05-01

A new reactor concept of allothermal cyclic multi-compartment fluidized bed steam biomass gasification is proposed and analyzed numerically. The concept combines space and time delocalization to approach an ideal allothermal gasifier. Thermochemical conversion of biomass in periodic time and space sequences of steam biomass gasification and char/biomass combustion is simulated in which the exothermic combustion compartments provide heat into an array of interspersed endothermic steam gasification compartments. This should enhance unit heat integration and thermal efficiency and procure N(2)-free biosyngas with recourse neither to oxygen addition in steam gasification nor contact between flue and syngas. The dynamic, one-dimensional, multi-component, non-isothermal model developed for this concept accounts for detailed solid and gas flow dynamics whereupon gasification/combustion reaction kinetics, thermal effects and freeboard-zone reactions were tied. Simulations suggest that allothermal operation could be achieved with switch periods in the range of a minute supporting practical feasibility for portable small-scale gasification units. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How Robust Are the Surface Temperature Fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation on Monthly Time Scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander-Turner, R.; Ortega, P.; Robson, J. I.

2018-04-01

It has been suggested that changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can drive sea surface temperature (SST) on monthly time scales (Duchez et al., 2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005667). However, with only 11 years of continuous observations, the validity of this result over longer, or different, time periods is uncertain. In this study, we use a 120 yearlong control simulation from a high-resolution climate model to test the robustness of the AMOC fingerprints. The model reproduces the observed AMOC seasonal cycle and its variability, and the observed 5-month lagged AMOC-SST fingerprints derived from 11 years of data. However, the AMOC-SST fingerprints are very sensitive to the particular time period considered. In particular, both the Florida current and the upper mid-ocean transport produce highly inconsistent fingerprints when using time periods shorter than 30 years. Therefore, several decades of RAPID observations will be necessary to determine the real impact of the AMOC on SSTs at monthly time scales.

Observation of 1-D time dependent non-propagating laser plasma structures using fluid and PIC codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Deepa; Bera, Ratan Kumar; Kumar, Atul; Patel, Bhavesh; Das, Amita

2017-12-01

The manuscript reports the observation of time dependent localized and non-propagating structures in the coupled laser plasma system through 1-D fluid and Particle-In-Cell (PIC) simulations. It is reported that such structures form spontaneously as a result of collision amongst certain exact solitonic solutions. They are seen to survive as coherent entities for a long time up to several hundreds of plasma periods. Furthermore, it is shown that such time dependence can also be artificially recreated by significantly disturbing the delicate balance between the radiation and the density fields required for the exact non-propagating solution obtained by Esirkepov et al., JETP 68(1), 36-41 (1998). The ensuing time evolution is an interesting interplay between kinetic and field energies of the system. The electrostatic plasma oscillations are coupled with oscillations in the electromagnetic field. The inhomogeneity of the background and the relativistic nature, however, invariably produces large amplitude density perturbations leading to its wave breaking. In the fluid simulations, the signature of wave breaking can be discerned by a drop in the total energy which evidently gets lost to the grid. The PIC simulations are observed to closely follow the fluid simulations till the point of wave breaking. However, the total energy in the case of PIC simulations is seen to remain conserved throughout the simulations. At the wave breaking, the particles are observed to acquire thermal kinetic energy in the case of PIC. Interestingly, even after wave breaking, compact coherent structures with trapped radiation inside high-density peaks continue to exist both in PIC and fluid simulations. Although the time evolution does not exactly match in the two simulations as it does prior to the process of wave breaking, the time-dependent features exhibited by the remnant structures are characteristically similar.

Ensemble reconstruction of severe low flow events in France since 1871

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Devers, Alexandre; Graff, Benjamin

2016-04-01

This work presents a study of severe low flow events that occurred from 1871 onwards for a large number of near-natural catchments in France. It aims at assessing and comparing their characteristics to improve our knowledge on historical events and to provide a selection of benchmark events for climate change adaptation purposes. The historical depth of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years and therefore offers too small a sample of severe low flow events to properly explore the long-term evolution of their characteristics and associated impacts. In order to overcome this limit, this work takes advantage of a 140-year ensemble hydrometeorological dataset over France based on: (1) a probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France (Caillouet et al., 2015), and (2) a continuous hydrological modelling that uses the high-resolution meteorological reconstructions as forcings over the whole period. This dataset provides an ensemble of 25 equally plausible daily streamflow time series for a reference network of stations in France over the whole 1871-2012 period. Severe low flow events are identified based on a combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. Each event is characterized by its deficit, duration and timing by applying the Sequent Peak Algorithm. The procedure is applied to the 25 simulated time series as well as to the observed time series in order to compare observed and simulated events over the recent period, and to characterize in a probabilistic way unrecorded historical events. The ensemble aspect of the reconstruction leads to address specific issues, for properly defining events across ensemble simulations, as well as for adequately comparing the simulated characteristics to the observed ones. This study brings forward the outstanding 1921 and 1940s events but also older and less known ones that occurred during the last decade of the 19th century. For the first time, severe low flow events are qualified in a homogeneous way over 140 years on a large set of near-natural French catchments, allowing for detailed analyses of the effect of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on low flow hydrology. Caillouet, L., Vidal, J.-P., Sauquet, E., and Graff, B. (2015) Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, Clim. Past Discuss., 11, 4425-4482, doi:10.5194/cpd-11-4425-2015

Hexavalent Americium recovery using Copper(III) periodate

DOE PAGES

McCann, Kevin; Brigham, Derek M.; Morrison, Samuel; ...

2016-10-31

Separation of americium from the lanthanides is considered one of the most difficult separation steps in closing the nuclear fuel cycle. One approach to this separation could involve oxidizing americium to the hexavalent state to form a linear dioxo cation while the lanthanides remain as trivalent ions. This work considers aqueous soluble Cu 3+ periodate as an oxidant under molar nitric acid conditions to separate hexavalent Am with diamyl amylphosphonate (DAAP) in n-dodecane. Initial studies assessed the kinetics of Cu 3+ periodate autoreduction in acidic media to aid in development of the solvent extraction system. Following characterization of the Cumore » 3+ periodate oxidant, solvent extraction studies optimized the recovery of Am from varied nitric acid media and in the presence of other fission product, or fission product surrogate, species. Short aqueous/organic contact times encouraged successful recovery of Am (distribution values as high as 2) from nitric acid media in the absence of redox active fission products. In the presence of a post-plutonium uranium redox extraction (post-PUREX) simulant aqueous feed, precipitation of tetravalent species (Ce, Ru, Zr) occurred and the distribution values of 241Am were suppressed, suggesting some oxidizing capacity of the Cu 3+ periodate is significantly consumed by other redox active metals in the simulant. Furthermore, the manuscript demonstrates Cu 3+ periodate as a potentially viable oxidant for Am oxidation and recovery and notes the consumption of oxidizing capacity observed in the presence of the post-PUREX simulant feed will need to be addressed for any approach seeking to oxidize Am for separations relevant to the nuclear fuel cycle.« less

Hexavalent Americium Recovery Using Copper(III) Periodate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCann, Kevin; Brigham, Derek M.; Morrison, Samuel

2016-11-21

Separation of americium from the lanthanides is considered one of the most difficult separation steps in closing the nuclear fuel cycle. One approach to this separation could involve oxidizing americium to the hexavalent state to form a linear dioxo cation while the lanthanides remain as trivalent ions. This work considers aqueous soluble Cu3+ periodate as an oxidant under molar nitric acid conditions to separate hexavalent Am with diamyl amylphosphonate (DAAP) in n-dodecane. Initial studies assessed the kinetics of Cu3+ periodate auto-reduction in acidic media to aid in development of the solvent extraction system. Following characterization of the Cu3+ periodate oxidant,more » solvent extraction studies optimized the recovery of Am from varied nitric acid media and in the presence of other fission product, or fission product surrogate, species. Short aqueous/organic contact times encouraged successful recovery of Am (distribution values as high as 2) from nitric acid media in the absence of redox active fission products. In the presence of a post-PUREX simulant aqueous feed, precipitation of tetravalent species (Ce, Ru, Zr) occurred and the distribution values of 241Am were suppressed, suggesting some oxidizing capacity of the Cu3+ periodate is significantly consumed by other redox active metals in the simulant. The manuscript demonstrates Cu3+ periodate as a potentially viable oxidant for Am oxidation and recovery and notes the consumption of oxidizing capacity observed in the presence of the post-PUREX simulant feed will need to be addressed for any approach seeking to oxidize Am for separations relevant to the nuclear fuel cycle.« less

A web-based Tamsui River flood early-warning system with correction of real-time water stage using monitoring data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, H. Y.; Lin, Y. J.; Chang, H. K.; Shang, R. K.; Kuo, H. C.; Lai, J. S.; Tan, Y. C.

2017-12-01

Taiwan encounters heavy rainfalls frequently. There are three to four typhoons striking Taiwan every year. To provide lead time for reducing flood damage, this study attempt to build a flood early-warning system (FEWS) in Tanshui River using time series correction techniques. The predicted rainfall is used as the input for the rainfall-runoff model. Then, the discharges calculated by the rainfall-runoff model is converted to the 1-D river routing model. The 1-D river routing model will output the simulating water stages in 487 cross sections for the future 48-hr. The downstream water stage at the estuary in 1-D river routing model is provided by storm surge simulation. Next, the water stages of 487 cross sections are corrected by time series model such as autoregressive (AR) model using real-time water stage measurements to improve the predicted accuracy. The results of simulated water stages are displayed on a web-based platform. In addition, the models can be performed remotely by any users with web browsers through a user interface. The on-line video surveillance images, real-time monitoring water stages, and rainfalls can also be shown on this platform. If the simulated water stage exceeds the embankments of Tanshui River, the alerting lights of FEWS will be flashing on the screen. This platform runs periodically and automatically to generate the simulation graphic data of flood water stages for flood disaster prevention and decision making.

Modelling chaotic vibrations using NASTRAN

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheerer, T. J.

1993-01-01

Due to the unavailability and, later, prohibitive cost of the computational power required, many phenomena in nonlinear dynamic systems have in the past been addressed in terms of linear systems. Linear systems respond to periodic inputs with periodic outputs, and may be characterized in the time domain or in the frequency domain as convenient. Reduction to the frequency domain is frequently desireable to reduce the amount of computation required for solution. Nonlinear systems are only soluble in the time domain, and may exhibit a time history which is extremely sensitive to initial conditions. Such systems are termed chaotic. Dynamic buckling, aeroelasticity, fatigue analysis, control systems and electromechanical actuators are among the areas where chaotic vibrations have been observed. Direct transient analysis over a long time period presents a ready means of simulating the behavior of self-excited or externally excited nonlinear systems for a range of experimental parameters, either to characterize chaotic behavior for development of load spectra, or to define its envelope and preclude its occurrence.

Periodic spring-mass running over uneven terrain through feedforward control of landing conditions.

PubMed

Palmer, Luther R; Eaton, Caitrin E

2014-09-01

This work pursues a feedforward control algorithm for high-speed legged locomotion over uneven terrain. Being able to rapidly negotiate uneven terrain without visual or a priori information about the terrain will allow legged systems to be used in time-critical applications and alongside fast-moving humans or vehicles. The algorithm is shown here implemented on a spring-loaded inverted pendulum model in simulation, and can be configured to approach fixed running height over uneven terrain or self-stable terrain following. Offline search identifies unique landing conditions that achieve a desired apex height with a constant stride period over varying ground levels. Because the time between the apex and touchdown events is directly related to ground height, the landing conditions can be computed in real time as continuous functions of this falling time. Enforcing a constant stride period reduces the need for inertial sensing of the apex event, which is nontrivial for physical systems, and allows for clocked feedfoward control of the swing leg.

The plant leaf movement analyzer (PALMA): a simple tool for the analysis of periodic cotyledon and leaf movement in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Wagner, Lucas; Schmal, Christoph; Staiger, Dorothee; Danisman, Selahattin

2017-01-01

The analysis of circadian leaf movement rhythms is a simple yet effective method to study effects of treatments or gene mutations on the circadian clock of plants. Currently, leaf movements are analysed using time lapse photography and subsequent bioinformatics analyses of leaf movements. Programs that are used for this purpose either are able to perform one function (i.e. leaf tip detection or rhythm analysis) or their function is limited to specific computational environments. We developed a leaf movement analysis tool-PALMA-that works in command line and combines image extraction with rhythm analysis using Fast Fourier transformation and non-linear least squares fitting. We validated PALMA in both simulated time series and in experiments using the known short period mutant sensitivity to red light reduced 1 ( srr1 - 1 ). We compared PALMA with two established leaf movement analysis tools and found it to perform equally well. Finally, we tested the effect of reduced iron conditions on the leaf movement rhythms of wild type plants. Here, we found that PALMA successfully detected period lengthening under reduced iron conditions. PALMA correctly estimated the period of both simulated and real-life leaf movement experiments. As a platform-independent console-program that unites both functions needed for the analysis of circadian leaf movements it is a valid alternative to existing leaf movement analysis tools.

Assessment of the effects of horizontal grid resolution on long ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The objective of this study is to determine the adequacy of using a relatively coarse horizontal resolution (i.e. 36 km) to simulate long-term trends of pollutant concentrations and radiation variables with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model. WRF-CMAQ simulations over the continental United State are performed over the 2001 to 2010 time period at two different horizontal resolutions of 12 and 36 km. Both simulations used the same emission inventory and model configurations. Model results are compared both in space and time to assess the potential weaknesses and strengths of using coarse resolution in long-term air quality applications. The results show that the 36 km and 12 km simulations are comparable in terms of trends analysis for both pollutant concentrations and radiation variables. The advantage of using the coarser 36 km resolution is a significant reduction of computational cost, time and storage requirement which are key considerations when performing multiple years of simulations for trend analysis. However, if such simulations are to be used for local air quality analysis, finer horizontal resolution may be beneficial since it can provide information on local gradients. In particular, divergences between the two simulations are noticeable in urban, complex terrain and coastal regions. The National Exposure Research Laboratory’s Atmospheric Modeling Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA’s mission to protect human health and the environment.

KINETIC SIMULATION OF SLOW MAGNETOSONIC WAVES AND QUASI-PERIODIC UPFLOWS IN THE SOLAR CORONA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruan, Wenzhi; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi

Quasi-periodic disturbances of emission-line parameters are frequently observed in the corona. These disturbances propagate upward along the magnetic field with speeds of ∼100 km s{sup −1}. This phenomenon has been interpreted as evidence of the propagation of slow magnetosonic waves or has been argued to be a signature of intermittent outflows superposed on the background plasmas. Here we aim to present a new “wave + flow” model to interpret these observations. In our scenario, the oscillatory motion is a slow-mode wave, and the flow is associated with a beam created by the wave–particle interaction owing to Landau resonance. With themore » help of a kinetic model, we simulate the propagation of slow-mode waves and the generation of beam flows. We find that weak periodic beam flows can be generated by to Landau resonance in the solar corona, and the phase with the strongest blueward asymmetry is ahead of that with the strongest blueshift by about 1/4 period. We also find that the slow wave damps to the level of 1/ e after the transit time of two wave periods, owing to Landau damping and Coulomb collisions in our simulation. This damping timescale is similar to that resulting from thermal conduction in the MHD regime. The beam flow is weakened/attenuated with increasing wave period and decreasing wave amplitude since Coulomb collisions become more and more dominant over the wave action. We suggest that this “wave + flow” kinetic model provides an alternative explanation for the observed quasi-periodic propagating perturbations in various parameters in the solar corona.« less

Analysis of periodically excited non-linear systems by a parametric continuation technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padmanabhan, C.; Singh, R.

1995-07-01

The dynamic behavior and frequency response of harmonically excited piecewise linear and/or non-linear systems has been the subject of several recent investigations. Most of the prior studies employed harmonic balance or Galerkin schemes, piecewise linear techniques, analog simulation and/or direct numerical integration (digital simulation). Such techniques are somewhat limited in their ability to predict all of the dynamic characteristics, including bifurcations leading to the occurrence of unstable, subharmonic, quasi-periodic and/or chaotic solutions. To overcome this problem, a parametric continuation scheme, based on the shooting method, is applied specifically to a periodically excited piecewise linear/non-linear system, in order to improve understanding as well as to obtain the complete dynamic response. Parameter regions exhibiting bifurcations to harmonic, subharmonic or quasi-periodic solutions are obtained quite efficiently and systematically. Unlike other techniques, the proposed scheme can follow period-doubling bifurcations, and with some modifications obtain stable quasi-periodic solutions and their bifurcations. This knowledge is essential in establishing conditions for the occurrence of chaotic oscillations in any non-linear system. The method is first validated through the Duffing oscillator example, the solutions to which are also obtained by conventional one-term harmonic balance and perturbation methods. The second example deals with a clearance non-linearity problem for both harmonic and periodic excitations. Predictions from the proposed scheme match well with available analog simulation data as well as with multi-term harmonic balance results. Potential savings in computational time over direct numerical integration is demonstrated for some of the example cases. Also, this work has filled in some of the solution regimes for an impact pair, which were missed previously in the literature. Finally, one main limitation associated with the proposed procedure is discussed.

Developing Multimedia-assisted Inquiry Learning Instruments for Basic Biology Intended to Foster Students’ Scientific Inquiry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahyani, R.

2017-04-01

Seasonal Influenza is one of disease that outbreaks periodically at least once every year. This disease caused many people hospitalized. Many hospitalized people as employers would infect production quantities, distribution time, and some economic aspects. It will infect economic growth. Infected people need treatments to reduce infection period and cure the infection. In this paper, we discussed a mathematical model of seasonal influenza with treatment. Factually, the disease was held in short period, less than one year. Hence, we can assume that the population is constant at the disease outbreak time. In this paper, we analyzed the existence of the equilibrium points of the model and their stability. We also give some simulation to give a geometric image about the results of the analysis process.

Mathematical Model of Seasonal Influenza with Treatment in Constant Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharis, M.; Arifudin, R.

2017-04-01

Seasonal Influenza is one of disease that outbreaks periodically at least once every year. This disease caused many people hospitalized. Many hospitalized people as employers would infect production quantities, distribution time, and some economic aspects. It will infect economic growth. Infected people need treatments to reduce infection period and cure the infection. In this paper, we discussed about a mathematical model of seasonal influenza with treatment. Factually, the disease was held in short period, less than one year. Hence, we can assume that the population is constant at the disease outbreak time. In this paper, we analyzed the existence of the equilibrium points of the model and their stability. We also give some simulation to give a geometric image about the results of the analysis process.

Generating synthetic wave climates for coastal modelling: a linear mixed modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, C.; Lark, R. M.

2013-12-01

Numerical coastline morphological evolution models require wave climate properties to drive morphological change through time. Wave climate properties (typically wave height, period and direction) may be temporally fixed, culled from real wave buoy data, or allowed to vary in some way defined by a Gaussian or other pdf. However, to examine sensitivity of coastline morphologies to wave climate change, it seems desirable to be able to modify wave climate time series from a current to some new state along a trajectory, but in a way consistent with, or initially conditioned by, the properties of existing data, or to generate fully synthetic data sets with realistic time series properties. For example, mean or significant wave height time series may have underlying periodicities, as revealed in numerous analyses of wave data. Our motivation is to develop a simple methodology to generate synthetic wave climate time series that can change in some stochastic way through time. We wish to use such time series in a coastline evolution model to test sensitivities of coastal landforms to changes in wave climate over decadal and centennial scales. We have worked initially on time series of significant wave height, based on data from a Waverider III buoy located off the coast of Yorkshire, England. The statistical framework for the simulation is the linear mixed model. The target variable, perhaps after transformation (Box-Cox), is modelled as a multivariate Gaussian, the mean modelled as a function of a fixed effect, and two random components, one of which is independently and identically distributed (iid) and the second of which is temporally correlated. The model was fitted to the data by likelihood methods. We considered the option of a periodic mean, the period either fixed (e.g. at 12 months) or estimated from the data. We considered two possible correlation structures for the second random effect. In one the correlation decays exponentially with time. In the second (spherical) model, it cuts off at a temporal range. Having fitted the model, multiple realisations were generated; the random effects were simulated by specifying a covariance matrix for the simulated values, with the estimated parameters. The Cholesky factorisation of the covariance matrix was computed and realizations of the random component of the model generated by pre-multiplying a vector of iid standard Gaussian variables by the lower triangular factor. The resulting random variate was added to the mean value computed from the fixed effects, and the result back-transformed to the original scale of the measurement. Realistic simulations result from approach described above. Background exploratory data analysis was undertaken on 20-day sets of 30-minute buoy data, selected from days 5-24 of months January, April, July, October, 2011, to elucidate daily to weekly variations, and to keep numerical analysis tractable computationally. Work remains to be undertaken to develop suitable models for synthetic directional data. We suggest that the general principles of the method will have applications in other geomorphological modelling endeavours requiring time series of stochastically variable environmental parameters.

Sidebands alongside the diurnal frequencies of radon time series in a simulation experiment -- an indication for a direct association with the earth-sun system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinitz, Gideon; Sturrock, Peter A.; Piatibratova, Oksana; Kotlarsky, Peter

2015-04-01

A radon simulation experiment using a confined mode is operating at GSI since 2007 at a time resolution of 15-minutes [1]. The nuclear radiation from radon in the confined air is measured using internal alpha and gamma sensors, and external gamma sensors. Detailed analysis [1, 2] demonstrated that the variation patterns cannot be ascribed to local environmental influences. On the other hand the specific features and relation led to the suggestion that a component in solar radiation is driving the signals. Prominent periodicities dominate the variation in the annual and diurnal frequency bands. The primary periodicity in the diurnal band has a frequency of 1 CPD (S1). Significant multiples occur at 2 CPD (S2), 3 CPD (S3) and also at 4 CPD (S4). The S2 and S3 constituents are clearly observed in the time domain in addition to the primary S1 periodicity. The measured signal is detrended by removing the large annual variation. Spectral analysis (FFT) of the residual time series reveals sidebands (Sb) alongside and on both sides of the S1 frequency in the time series of the alpha and gamma sensors. The lower sideband (LSb) occurs at a frequency close to the astronomical sidereal frequency (0.9972696 CPD). The upper sideband (USb) occurs at a symmetric frequency relative to S1. The four sensors (alpha and gamma)exhibit the LSb, S1, and USb at the following frequencies (CPD): Gamma-C: 0.99739; 0.99989; 1.00275 Gamma-W: 0.99717; 0.99986; 1.00257 Alpha-H: 0.99710; 0.99992; 1.00269 Alpha-L: 0.99719; 0.99991 Multiples of LSb and USb are observed around the S1 periodicity. Similar features of Sb and multiples occur also around S2, S3, and S4. The development of the specific Sb around the diurnal periodicities may be attributed to a driver composed of two waveforms having periodicities of 1 day and 365.25 days, which interacts in a non-linear mode with radon inside the confined volume. The pattern of the alpha and gamma emission of the decaying radon is reflecting this non-linear interaction. The observed patterns of diurnal periodicities together with the associated Sb and their multiples can be demonstrated by statistical simulation using polynomial combinations of these sinusoidal waveforms. Notwithstanding, at this stage the identification of the underlying physical and geophysical processes remains open. The observation of sidebands around S1 at the specific periodicities indicates that the periodic signals in the radon time series of the experiment are directly related to the cyclic rotational relations in the earth-sun system. This in turn is an independent confirmation of the notion that these signals are influenced by a component in solar radiation [1, 2]. 1. Steinitz, G., Piatibratova, O., Kotlarsky, P., 2011. Possible effect of solar tides on radon signals. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 102, 749-765. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2011.04.002. 2. Sturrock, P.A., Steinitz, G., Fischbach, E., Javorsek, D. and Jenkins, J.H., 2012. Analysis of Gamma Radiation from a Radon Source: Indications of a Solar Influence. Astroparticle Physics, 36/1, 18-26.

Development and evaluation of a reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes in Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Domanski, Marian M.

2017-01-27

Forecasts of flows entering and leaving the Chain of Lakes reservoir on the Fox River in northeastern Illinois are critical information to water-resource managers who determine the optimal operation of the dam at McHenry, Illinois, to help minimize damages to property and loss of life because of flooding on the Fox River. In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey; the Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Office of Water Resources; and National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center began a cooperative study to develop a system to enable engineers and planners to simulate and communicate flows and to prepare proactively for precipitation events in near real time in the upper Fox River watershed. The purpose of this report is to document the development and evaluation of the Chain of Lakes reservoir model developed in this study.The reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes was developed using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Reservoir System Simulation program. Because of the complex relation between the dam headwater and reservoir pool elevations, the reservoir model uses a linear regression model that relates dam headwater elevation to reservoir pool elevation. The linear regression model was developed using 17 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow measurements, along with the gage height in the reservoir pool and the gage height at the dam headwater. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients for all three linear regression model variables ranged from 0.90 to 0.98.The reservoir model performance was evaluated by graphically comparing simulated and observed reservoir pool elevation time series during nine periods of high pool elevation. In addition, the peak elevations during these time periods were graphically compared to the closest-in-time observed pool elevation peak. The mean difference in the simulated and observed peak elevations was -0.03 feet, with a standard deviation of 0.19 feet. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for peak prediction was calculated as 0.94. Evaluation of the model based on accuracy of peak prediction and the ability to simulate an elevation time series showed the performance of the model was satisfactory.

Vegetation-induced warming of high-latitude regions during the Late Cretaceous period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Upchurch, Garland R.

1997-02-01

Modelling studies of pre-Quaternary (>2 million years ago) climate implicate atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations1, land elevation2 and land-sea distribution3-5 as important factors influencing global climate change over geological timescales. But during times of global warmth, such as the Cretaceous period and Eocene epoch, there are large discrepancies between model simulations of high-latitude and continental-interior temperatures and those indicated by palaeotemperature records6,7. Here we use a global climate model for the latest Cretaceous (66 million years ago) to examine the role played by high- and middle-latitude forests in surface temperature regulation. In our simulations, this forest vegetation warms the global climate by 2.2 °C. The low-albedo deciduous forests cause high-latitude land areas to warm, which then transfer more heat to adjacent oceans, thus delaying sea-ice formation and increasing winter temperatures over coastal land. Overall, the inclusion of some of the physical and physiological climate feedback effects of high-latitude forest vegetation in our simulations reduces the existing discrepancies between observed and modelled climates of the latest Cretaceous, suggesting that these forests may have made an important contribution to climate regulation during periods of global warmth.

A Matter of Timing: Identifying Significant Multi-Dose Radiotherapy Improvements by Numerical Simulation and Genetic Algorithm Search

PubMed Central

Angus, Simon D.; Piotrowska, Monika Joanna

2014-01-01

Multi-dose radiotherapy protocols (fraction dose and timing) currently used in the clinic are the product of human selection based on habit, received wisdom, physician experience and intra-day patient timetabling. However, due to combinatorial considerations, the potential treatment protocol space for a given total dose or treatment length is enormous, even for relatively coarse search; well beyond the capacity of traditional in-vitro methods. In constrast, high fidelity numerical simulation of tumor development is well suited to the challenge. Building on our previous single-dose numerical simulation model of EMT6/Ro spheroids, a multi-dose irradiation response module is added and calibrated to the effective dose arising from 18 independent multi-dose treatment programs available in the experimental literature. With the developed model a constrained, non-linear, search for better performing cadidate protocols is conducted within the vicinity of two benchmarks by genetic algorithm (GA) techniques. After evaluating less than 0.01% of the potential benchmark protocol space, candidate protocols were identified by the GA which conferred an average of 9.4% (max benefit 16.5%) and 7.1% (13.3%) improvement (reduction) on tumour cell count compared to the two benchmarks, respectively. Noticing that a convergent phenomenon of the top performing protocols was their temporal synchronicity, a further series of numerical experiments was conducted with periodic time-gap protocols (10 h to 23 h), leading to the discovery that the performance of the GA search candidates could be replicated by 17–18 h periodic candidates. Further dynamic irradiation-response cell-phase analysis revealed that such periodicity cohered with latent EMT6/Ro cell-phase temporal patterning. Taken together, this study provides powerful evidence towards the hypothesis that even simple inter-fraction timing variations for a given fractional dose program may present a facile, and highly cost-effecitive means of significantly improving clinical efficacy. PMID:25460164

A matter of timing: identifying significant multi-dose radiotherapy improvements by numerical simulation and genetic algorithm search.

PubMed

Angus, Simon D; Piotrowska, Monika Joanna

2014-01-01

Multi-dose radiotherapy protocols (fraction dose and timing) currently used in the clinic are the product of human selection based on habit, received wisdom, physician experience and intra-day patient timetabling. However, due to combinatorial considerations, the potential treatment protocol space for a given total dose or treatment length is enormous, even for relatively coarse search; well beyond the capacity of traditional in-vitro methods. In constrast, high fidelity numerical simulation of tumor development is well suited to the challenge. Building on our previous single-dose numerical simulation model of EMT6/Ro spheroids, a multi-dose irradiation response module is added and calibrated to the effective dose arising from 18 independent multi-dose treatment programs available in the experimental literature. With the developed model a constrained, non-linear, search for better performing cadidate protocols is conducted within the vicinity of two benchmarks by genetic algorithm (GA) techniques. After evaluating less than 0.01% of the potential benchmark protocol space, candidate protocols were identified by the GA which conferred an average of 9.4% (max benefit 16.5%) and 7.1% (13.3%) improvement (reduction) on tumour cell count compared to the two benchmarks, respectively. Noticing that a convergent phenomenon of the top performing protocols was their temporal synchronicity, a further series of numerical experiments was conducted with periodic time-gap protocols (10 h to 23 h), leading to the discovery that the performance of the GA search candidates could be replicated by 17-18 h periodic candidates. Further dynamic irradiation-response cell-phase analysis revealed that such periodicity cohered with latent EMT6/Ro cell-phase temporal patterning. Taken together, this study provides powerful evidence towards the hypothesis that even simple inter-fraction timing variations for a given fractional dose program may present a facile, and highly cost-effecitive means of significantly improving clinical efficacy.

Detecting climate change oriented and human induced changes in stream temperature across the Southeastern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Voisin, N.; Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Nijssen, B.; Yearsley, J. R.; Zhou, T.

2017-12-01

In many areas, climate change is expected to alter the flow regime and increase stream temperature, especially during summer low flow periods. During these low flow periods, water management increases flows in order to sustain human activities such as water for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. Water extraction from rivers during warm season can increase stream temperature while reservoir regulation may cool downstream river temperatures by releasing cool water from deep layers. Thus, it is reasonable to hypothesize that water management changes the sensitivity of the stream temperature regime to climate change when compared to unmanaged resources. The time of emergence of change refers to the point in time when observations, or model simulations, show statistically significant changes from a given baseline period, i.e. above natural variability. Here we aim to address two questions by investigating the time of emergence of changes in stream temperature in the southeastern United States: what is the sensitivity of stream temperature under regulated flow conditions to climate change and what is the contribution of water management in increasing or decreasing stream temperature sensitivity to climate change. We simulate regulated flow by using runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model as input into a large scale river routing and reservoir model MOSART-WM. The River Basin Model (RBM), a distributed stream temperature model, includes a two-layer thermal stratification module to simulate stream temperature in regulated river systems. We evaluate the timing of emergence of changes in flow and stream temperature based on climate projections from two representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We analyze the difference in emergence of change between natural and regulated streamflow. Insights will be provided toward applications for multiple sectors of activities including electrical resources adequacy studies over the southeastern U.S.

Eurodelta-Trends, a Multi-Model Experiment of Air Quality Hindcast in Europe over 1990-2010. Experiment Design and Key Findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colette, A.; Ciarelli, G.; Otero, N.; Theobald, M.; Solberg, S.; Andersson, C.; Couvidat, F.; Manders-Groot, A.; Mar, K. A.; Mircea, M.; Pay, M. T.; Raffort, V.; Tsyro, S.; Cuvelier, K.; Adani, M.; Bessagnet, B.; Bergstrom, R.; Briganti, G.; Cappelletti, A.; D'isidoro, M.; Fagerli, H.; Ojha, N.; Roustan, Y.; Vivanco, M. G.

2017-12-01

The Eurodelta-Trends multi-model chemistry-transport experiment has been designed to better understand the evolution of air pollution and its drivers for the period 1990-2010 in Europe. The main objective of the experiment is to assess the efficiency of air pollutant emissions mitigation measures in improving regional scale air quality. The experiment is designed in three tiers with increasing degree of computational demand in order to facilitate the participation of as many modelling teams as possible. The basic experiment consists of simulations for the years 1990, 2000 and 2010. Sensitivity analysis for the same three years using various combinations of (i) anthropogenic emissions, (ii) chemical boundary conditions and (iii) meteorology complements it. The most demanding tier consists in two complete time series from 1990 to 2010, simulated using either time varying emissions for corresponding years or constant emissions. Eight chemistry-transport models have contributed with calculation results to at least one experiment tier, and six models have completed the 21-year trend simulations. The modelling results are publicly available for further use by the scientific community. We assess the skill of the models in capturing observed air pollution trends for the 1990-2010 time period. The average particulate matter relative trends are well captured by the models, even if they display the usual lower bias in reproducing absolute levels. Ozone trends are also well reproduced, yet slightly overestimated in the 1990s. The attribution study emphasizes the efficiency of mitigation measures in reducing air pollution over Europe, although a strong impact of long range transport is pointed out for ozone trends. Meteorological variability is also an important factor in some regions of Europe. The results of the first health and ecosystem impact studies impacts building upon a regional scale multi-model ensemble over a 20yr time period will also be presented.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edlund, Jeffrey A.; Tinto, Massimo; Krolak, Andrzej

LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna) is a proposed space mission, which will use coherent laser beams exchanged between three remote spacecraft to detect and study low-frequency cosmic gravitational radiation. In the low part of its frequency band, the LISA strain sensitivity will be dominated by the incoherent superposition of hundreds of millions of gravitational wave signals radiated by inspiraling white-dwarf binaries present in our own Galaxy. In order to estimate the magnitude of the LISA response to this background, we have simulated a synthesized population that recently appeared in the literature. Our approach relies on entirely analytic expressions of themore » LISA time-delay interferometric responses to the gravitational radiation emitted by such systems, which allows us to implement a computationally efficient and accurate simulation of the background in the LISA data. We find the amplitude of the galactic white-dwarf binary background in the LISA data to be modulated in time, reaching a minimum equal to about twice that of the LISA noise for a period of about two months around the time when the Sun-LISA direction is roughly oriented towards the Autumn equinox. This suggests that, during this time period, LISA could search for other gravitational wave signals incoming from directions that are away from the galactic plane. Since the galactic white-dwarf background will be observed by LISA not as a stationary but rather as a cyclostationary random process with a period of 1 yr, we summarize the theory of cyclostationary random processes, present the corresponding generalized spectral method needed to characterize such process, and make a comparison between our analytic results and those obtained by applying our method to the simulated data. We find that, by measuring the generalized spectral components of the white-dwarf background, LISA will be able to infer properties of the distribution of the white-dwarf binary systems present in our Galaxy.« less

Lattice Boltzmann simulations of heat transfer in fully developed periodic incompressible flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zimeng; Shang, Helen; Zhang, Junfeng

2017-06-01

Flow and heat transfer in periodic structures are of great interest for many applications. In this paper, we carefully examine the periodic features of fully developed periodic incompressible thermal flows, and incorporate them in the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) for flow and heat transfer simulations. Two numerical approaches, the distribution modification (DM) approach and the source term (ST) approach, are proposed; and they can both be used for periodic thermal flows with constant wall temperature (CWT) and surface heat flux boundary conditions. However, the DM approach might be more efficient, especially for CWT systems since the ST approach requires calculations of the streamwise temperature gradient at all lattice nodes. Several example simulations are conducted, including flows through flat and wavy channels and flows through a square array with circular cylinders. Results are compared to analytical solutions, previous studies, and our own LBM calculations using different simulation techniques (i.e., the one-module simulation vs. the two-module simulation, and the DM approach vs. the ST approach) with good agreement. These simple, however, representative simulations demonstrate the accuracy and usefulness of our proposed LBM methods for future thermal periodic flow simulations.

Detection of faults in rotating machinery using periodic time-frequency sparsity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yin; He, Wangpeng; Chen, Binqiang; Zi, Yanyang; Selesnick, Ivan W.

2016-11-01

This paper addresses the problem of extracting periodic oscillatory features in vibration signals for detecting faults in rotating machinery. To extract the feature, we propose an approach in the short-time Fourier transform (STFT) domain where the periodic oscillatory feature manifests itself as a relatively sparse grid. To estimate the sparse grid, we formulate an optimization problem using customized binary weights in the regularizer, where the weights are formulated to promote periodicity. In order to solve the proposed optimization problem, we develop an algorithm called augmented Lagrangian majorization-minimization algorithm, which combines the split augmented Lagrangian shrinkage algorithm (SALSA) with majorization-minimization (MM), and is guaranteed to converge for both convex and non-convex formulation. As examples, the proposed approach is applied to simulated data, and used as a tool for diagnosing faults in bearings and gearboxes for real data, and compared to some state-of-the-art methods. The results show that the proposed approach can effectively detect and extract the periodical oscillatory features.

OPERATION EVEREST II: Effects of a Simulated Ascent to 29,000 Feet on Nutrition and Body Composition

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-05-29

Torr. During the sarie time periods the carbohydrate (CHO) intake decreased Xrom 62.1% to 53.2% ( p ,< 0.001). All subjects..lost body weight with a mean...Torr. During the same time periods the carbohydrate (CHO) intake decreased from 62.1% to 53.2% ( p < 0.001). All subjects lost body weight with a mean...Mean body weight loss for the 38 days was 7.44+2.24 kg ( p ɘ.01) ranging from 4.2 to 9.9 kg (Table 8). The subjects lost 8.9+2.0% of their sea level body

Climate change streamflow scenarios designed for critical period water resources planning studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlet, A. F.; Snover, A. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2003-04-01

Long-range water planning in the United States is usually conducted by individual water management agencies using a critical period planning exercise based on a particular period of the observed streamflow record and a suite of internally-developed simulation tools representing the water system. In the context of planning for climate change, such an approach is flawed in that it assumes that the future climate will be like the historic record. Although more sophisticated planning methods will probably be required as time goes on, a short term strategy for incorporating climate uncertainty into long-range water planning as soon as possible is to create alternate inputs to existing planning methods that account for climate uncertainty as it affects both supply and demand. We describe a straight-forward technique for constructing streamflow scenarios based on the historic record that include the broad-based effects of changed regional climate simulated by several global climate models (GCMs). The streamflow scenarios are based on hydrologic simulations driven by historic climate data perturbed according to regional climate signals from four GCMs using the simple "delta" method. Further data processing then removes systematic hydrologic model bias using a quantile-based bias correction scheme, and lastly, the effects of random errors in the raw hydrologic simulations are removed. These techniques produce streamflow scenarios that are consistent in time and space with the historic streamflow record while incorporating fundamental changes in temperature and precipitation from the GCM scenarios. Planning model simulations based on these climate change streamflow scenarios can therefore be compared directly to planning model simulations based on the historic record of streamflows to help planners understand the potential impacts of climate uncertainty. The methods are currently being tested and refined in two large-scale planning exercises currently being conducted in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the US, and the resulting streamflow scenarios will be made freely available on the internet for a large number of sites in the PNW to help defray the costs of including climate change information in other studies.

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astitha, Marina; Luo, Huiying; Rao, S. Trivikrama; Hogrefe, Christian; Mathur, Rohit; Kumar, Naresh

2017-09-01

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are also evaluated during the same timeframe using spectral decomposition of observed and modeled ozone time series with the aim of identifying the underlying forcing mechanisms that control ozone exceedances and making informed recommendations for the optimal use of regional-scale air quality models. The evaluation is focused on the warm season's (i.e., May-September) daily maximum 8-hr (DM8HR) ozone concentrations, the 4th highest (4th) and average of top 10 DM8HR ozone values (top10), as well as the spectrally-decomposed components of the DM8HR ozone time series using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. Results of the dynamic evaluation are presented for six regions in the U.S., consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climatic regions. During the earlier 11-yr period (1990-2000), the simulated and observed regional average trends are not statistically significant. During the more recent 2000-2010 period, all observed trends are statistically significant and WRF-CMAQ captures the observed downward trend in the Southwest and Midwest but under-predicts the downward trends in observations for the other regions. Observational analysis reveals that it is the magnitude of the long-term forcing that dictates the maximum ozone exceedance potential; there is a strong linear relationship between the long-term forcing and the 4th highest or the average of the top10 ozone concentrations in both observations and model output. This finding indicates that improving the model's ability to reproduce the long-term component will also enable better simulation of ozone extreme values that are of interest to regulatory agencies.

Simulated discharge trends indicate robustness of hydrological models in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addor, Nans; Nikolova, Silviya; Seibert, Jan

2016-04-01

Assessing the robustness of hydrological models under contrasted climatic conditions should be part any hydrological model evaluation. Robust models are particularly important for climate impact studies, as models performing well under current conditions are not necessarily capable of correctly simulating hydrological perturbations caused by climate change. A pressing issue is the usually assumed stationarity of parameter values over time. Modeling experiments using conceptual hydrological models revealed that assuming transposability of parameters values in changing climatic conditions can lead to significant biases in discharge simulations. This raises the question whether parameter values should to be modified over time to reflect changes in hydrological processes induced by climate change. Such a question denotes a focus on the contribution of internal processes (i.e., catchment processes) to discharge generation. Here we adopt a different perspective and explore the contribution of external forcing (i.e., changes in precipitation and temperature) to changes in discharge. We argue that in a robust hydrological model, discharge variability should be induced by changes in the boundary conditions, and not by changes in parameter values. In this study, we explore how well the conceptual hydrological model HBV captures transient changes in hydrological signatures over the period 1970-2009. Our analysis focuses on research catchments in Switzerland undisturbed by human activities. The precipitation and temperature forcing are extracted from recently released 2km gridded data sets. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate HBV for the whole 40-year period and for the eight successive 5-year periods to assess eventual trends in parameter values. Model calibration is run multiple times to account for parameter uncertainty. We find that in alpine catchments showing a significant increase of winter discharge, this trend can be captured reasonably well with constant parameter values over the whole reference period. Further, preliminary results suggest that some trends in parameter values do not reflect changes in hydrological processes, as reported by others previously, but instead might stem from a modeling artifact related to the parameterization of evapotranspiration, which is overly sensitive to temperature increase. We adopt a trading-space-for-time approach to better understand whether robust relationships between parameter values and forcing can be established, and to critically explore the rationale behind time-dependent parameter values in conceptual hydrological models.

Long-time dynamics through parallel trajectory splicing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perez, Danny; Cubuk, Ekin D.; Waterland, Amos

2015-11-24

Simulating the atomistic evolution of materials over long time scales is a longstanding challenge, especially for complex systems where the distribution of barrier heights is very heterogeneous. Such systems are difficult to investigate using conventional long-time scale techniques, and the fact that they tend to remain trapped in small regions of configuration space for extended periods of time strongly limits the physical insights gained from short simulations. We introduce a novel simulation technique, Parallel Trajectory Splicing (ParSplice), that aims at addressing this problem through the timewise parallelization of long trajectories. The computational efficiency of ParSplice stems from a speculation strategymore » whereby predictions of the future evolution of the system are leveraged to increase the amount of work that can be concurrently performed at any one time, hence improving the scalability of the method. ParSplice is also able to accurately account for, and potentially reuse, a substantial fraction of the computational work invested in the simulation. We validate the method on a simple Ag surface system and demonstrate substantial increases in efficiency compared to previous methods. As a result, we then demonstrate the power of ParSplice through the study of topology changes in Ag 42Cu 13 core–shell nanoparticles.« less

Electrogastrographic and autonomic responses during oculovestibular recoupling in flight simulation.

PubMed

Cevette, Michael J; Pradhan, Gaurav N; Cocco, Daniela; Crowell, Michael D; Galea, Anna M; Bartlett, Jennifer; Stepanek, Jan

2014-01-01

Simulator sickness causes vestibulo-autonomic responses that increase sympathetic activity and decrease parasympathetic activity. The purpose of the study was to quantify these responses through electrogastrography and cardiac interbeat intervals during flight simulation. There were 29 subjects that were randomly assigned to 2 parallel arms: (1) oculovestibular recoupling, where galvanic vestibular stimulation was synchronous with the visual field; and (2) control. Electrogastrography and interbeat interval data were collected during baseline, simulation, and post-simulation periods. A simulator sickness questionnaire was administered. Statistically significant differences were observed in percentage of recording time with the dominant frequency of electrogastrography in normogastric and bradygastric domains between the oculovestibular recoupling and control groups. Normogastria was dominant during simulation in the oculovestibular recoupling group. In the control group, the percentage of recording time with the dominant frequency decreased by 22% in normogastria and increased by 20% in bradygastria. The percentage change of the dominant power instability coefficient from baseline to simulation was 26% in the oculovestibular recoupling group vs. 108% in the control group. The power of high-frequency components for interbeat intervals did not change significantly in the oculovestibular recoupling group and was decreased during simulation in the control group. Electrogastrography and interbeat intervals are sensitive indices of autonomic changes in subjects undergoing flight simulation. These data demonstrate the potential of oculovestibular recoupling to stabilize gastric activity and cardiac autonomic changes altered during simulator and motion sickness.

Effect of Microgravity on Mammalian Lymphocytes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banerjee, H.; Blackshear, M.; Mahaffey, K.; Knight, C.; Khan, A. A.; Delucas, L.

2004-01-01

The effect of microgravity on mammalian system is an important and interesting topic for scientific investigation, since NASA s objective is to send manned flights to planets like Mars and eventual human colonization.The Astronauts will be exposed to microgravity environment for a long duration of time during these flights.Our objective of research is to conduct in vitro studies for the effect of microgravity on mammalian immune system.We did our preliminary investigations by exposing mammalian lymphocytes to a microgravity simulator cell bioreactor designed by NASA and manufactured at Synthecon Inc (USA).Our initial results showed no significant change in cytokine expression in these cells for a time period of forty eight hours exposure.Our future experiments will involve exposure for a longer period of time.

Short-time Lyapunov exponent analysis and the transition to chaos in Taylor-Couette flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vastano, John A.; Moser, Robert D.

1991-01-01

The physical mechanism driving the weakly chaotic Taylor-Couette flow is investigated using the short-time Liapunov exponent analysis. In this procedure, the transition from quasi-periodicity to chaos is studied using direct numerical 3D simulations of axially periodic Taylor-Couette flow, and a partial Liapunov exponent spectrum for the flow is computed by simultaneously advancing the full solution and a set of perturbations. It is shown that the short-time Liapunov exponent analysis yields more information on the exponents and dimension than that obtained from the common Liapunov exponent calculations. Results show that the chaotic state studied here is caused by a Kelvin-Helmholtz-type instability of the outflow boundary jet of Taylor vortices.

Documentation of a spreadsheet for time-series analysis and drawdown estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halford, Keith J.

2006-01-01

Drawdowns during aquifer tests can be obscured by barometric pressure changes, earth tides, regional pumping, and recharge events in the water-level record. These stresses can create water-level fluctuations that should be removed from observed water levels prior to estimating drawdowns. Simple models have been developed for estimating unpumped water levels during aquifer tests that are referred to as synthetic water levels. These models sum multiple time series such as barometric pressure, tidal potential, and background water levels to simulate non-pumping water levels. The amplitude and phase of each time series are adjusted so that synthetic water levels match measured water levels during periods unaffected by an aquifer test. Differences between synthetic and measured water levels are minimized with a sum-of-squares objective function. Root-mean-square errors during fitting and prediction periods were compared multiple times at four geographically diverse sites. Prediction error equaled fitting error when fitting periods were greater than or equal to four times prediction periods. The proposed drawdown estimation approach has been implemented in a spreadsheet application. Measured time series are independent so that collection frequencies can differ and sampling times can be asynchronous. Time series can be viewed selectively and magnified easily. Fitting and prediction periods can be defined graphically or entered directly. Synthetic water levels for each observation well are created with earth tides, measured time series, moving averages of time series, and differences between measured and moving averages of time series. Selected series and fitting parameters for synthetic water levels are stored and drawdowns are estimated for prediction periods. Drawdowns can be viewed independently and adjusted visually if an anomaly skews initial drawdowns away from 0. The number of observations in a drawdown time series can be reduced by averaging across user-defined periods. Raw or reduced drawdown estimates can be copied from the spreadsheet application or written to tab-delimited ASCII files.

[Simulating the effects of climate change and fire disturbance on aboveground biomass of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].

PubMed

Luo, Xu; Wang, Yu Li; Zhang, Jin Quan

2018-03-01

Predicting the effects of climate warming and fire disturbance on forest aboveground biomass is a central task of studies in terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The alteration of temperature, precipitation, and disturbance regimes induced by climate warming will affect the carbon dynamics of forest ecosystem. Boreal forest is an important forest type in China, the responses of which to climate warming and fire disturbance are increasingly obvious. In this study, we used a forest landscape model LANDIS PRO to simulate the effects of climate change on aboveground biomass of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, and compared direct effects of climate warming and the effects of climate warming-induced fires on forest aboveground biomass. The results showed that the aboveground biomass in this area increased under climate warming scenarios and fire disturbance scenarios with increased intensity. Under the current climate and fire regime scenario, the aboveground biomass in this area was (97.14±5.78) t·hm -2 , and the value would increase up to (97.93±5.83) t·hm -2 under the B1F2 scenario. Under the A2F3 scenario, aboveground biomass at landscape scale was relatively higher at the simulated periods of year 100-150 and year 150-200, and the value were (100.02±3.76) t·hm -2 and (110.56±4.08) t·hm -2 , respectively. Compared to the current fire regime scenario, the predicted biomass at landscape scale was increased by (0.56±1.45) t·hm -2 under the CF2 scenario (fire intensity increased by 30%) at some simulated periods, and the aboveground biomass was reduced by (7.39±1.79) t·hm -2 in CF3 scenario (fire intensity increased by 230%) at the entire simulation period. There were significantly different responses between coniferous and broadleaved species under future climate warming scenarios, in that the simulated biomass for both Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla showed decreasing trend with climate change, whereas the simulated biomass for Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica, Picea koraiensis and Populus davidiana showed increasing trend at different degrees during the entire simulation period. There was a time lag for the direct effect of climate warming on biomass for coniferous and broadleaved species. The response time of coniferous species to climate warming was 25-30 years, which was longer than that for broadleaf species. The forest landscape in the Great Xing'an Mountains was sensitive to the interactive effect of climate warming (high CO 2 emissions) and high intensity fire disturbance. Future climate warming and high intensity forest fire disturbance would significantly change the composition and structure of forest ecosystem.

Cell Phones and Cancer Risk

MedlinePlus

... cell phone use in this country during that time ( 24 ). An analysis of incidence data from Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden for the period 1974–2008 similarly revealed no increase in age-adjusted incidence of brain tumors ( 25 ). A series of studies testing different scenarios (called simulations by ...

MOBILIZATION AND DISTRIBUTION OF METALS FROM ESTUARINE SEDIMENTS DURING PERIODS OF SIMULATED RESUSPENSION

EPA Science Inventory

For decades, heavy metals have been deposited into marine sediments as a result of anthropogenic activities. Depending on their bioavailability, they may represent a risk to aquatic organisms contributing to the overall degraded conditions present in many estuaries. Over time, ma...

Understanding resonance graphs using Easy Java Simulations (EJS) and why we use EJS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wee, Loo Kang; Lee, Tat Leong; Chew, Charles; Wong, Darren; Tan, Samuel

2015-03-01

This paper reports a computer model simulation created using Easy Java Simulation (EJS) for learners to visualize how the steady-state amplitude of a driven oscillating system varies with the frequency of the periodic driving force. The simulation shows (N = 100) identical spring-mass systems being subjected to (1) a periodic driving force of equal amplitude but different driving frequencies, and (2) different amounts of damping. The simulation aims to create a visually intuitive way of understanding how the series of amplitude versus driving frequency graphs are obtained by showing how the displacement of the system changes over time as it transits from the transient to the steady state. A suggested ‘how to use’ the model is added to help educators and students in their teaching and learning, where we explain the theoretical steady-state equation time conditions when the model begins to allow data recording of maximum amplitudes to closely match the theoretical equation, and the steps to collect different runs of the degree of damping. We also discuss two of the design features in our computer model: displaying the instantaneous oscillation together with the achieved steady-state amplitudes, and the explicit world view overlay with scientific representation with different degrees of damping runs. Three advantages of using EJS include: (1) open source codes and creative commons attribution licenses for scaling up of interactively engaging educational practices; (2) the models made can run on almost any device, including Android and iOS; and (3) it allows the redefinition of physics educational practices through computer modeling.

Application of cellular automata approach for cloud simulation and rendering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christopher Immanuel, W.; Paul Mary Deborrah, S.; Samuel Selvaraj, R.

Current techniques for creating clouds in games and other real time applications produce static, homogenous clouds. These clouds, while viable for real time applications, do not exhibit an organic feel that clouds in nature exhibit. These clouds, when viewed over a time period, were able to deform their initial shape and move in a more organic and dynamic way. With cloud shape technology we should be able in the future to extend to create even more cloud shapes in real time with more forces. Clouds are an essential part of any computer model of a landscape or an animation ofmore » an outdoor scene. A realistic animation of clouds is also important for creating scenes for flight simulators, movies, games, and other. Our goal was to create a realistic animation of clouds.« less

Figure4

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

NetCDF files of PBL height (m), Shortwave Radiation, 10 m wind speed from WRF and Ozone from CMAQ. The data is the standard deviation of these variables for each hour of the 4 day simulation. Figure 4 is only one of the time periods: June 8, 2100 UTC. The NetCDF files have a time stamp (Times) that can be used to find this time in order to reproduce the Figure 4. Also included is a data dictionary that describes the domain and all other attributes of the model simulation.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Gilliam , R., C. Hogrefe , J. Godowitch, S. Napelenok , R. Mathur , and S.T. Rao. Impact of inherent meteorology uncertainty on air quality model predictions. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, USA, 120(23): 12,259–12,280, (2015).

Improvement of Meteorological Inputs for TexAQS-II Air Quality Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngan, F.; Byun, D.; Kim, H.; Cheng, F.; Kim, S.; Lee, D.

2008-12-01

An air quality forecasting system (UH-AQF) for Eastern Texas, which is in operation by the Institute for Multidimensional Air Quality Studies (IMAQS) at the University of Houston, uses the Fifth-Generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model MM5 model as the meteorological driver for modeling air quality with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. While the forecasting system was successfully used for the planning and implementation of various measurement activities, evaluations of the forecasting results revealed a few systematic problems in the numerical simulations. From comparison with observations, we observe some times over-prediction of northerly winds caused by inaccurate synoptic inputs and other times too strong southerly winds caused by local sea breeze development. Discrepancies in maximum and minimum temperature are also seen for certain days. Precipitation events, as well as clouds, are simulated at the incorrect locations and times occasionally. Model simulatednrealistic thunderstorms are simulated, causing sometimes cause unrealistically strong outflows. To understand physical and chemical processes influencing air quality measures, a proper description of real world meteorological conditions is essential. The objective of this study is to generate better meteorological inputs than the AQF results to support the chemistry modeling. We utilized existing objective analysis and nudging tools in the MM5 system to develop the MUltiscale Nest-down Data Assimilation System (MUNDAS), which incorporates extensive meteorological observations available in the simulated domain for the retrospective simulation of the TexAQS-II period. With the re-simulated meteorological input, we are able to better predict ozone events during TexAQS-II period. In addition, base datasets in MM5 such as land use/land cover, vegetation fraction, soil type and sea surface temperature are updated by satellite data to represent the surface features more accurately. They are key physical parameters inputs affecting transfer of heat, momentum and soil moisture in land-surface process in MM5. Using base the accurate input datasets, we are able to have improved see the differences of predictions of ground temperatures, winds and even thunderstorm activities within boundary layer.

Improved short-term variability in the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Häusler, K.; Hagan, M. E.; Baumgaertner, A. J. G.; Maute, A.; Lu, G.; Doornbos, E.; Bruinsma, S.; Forbes, J. M.; Gasperini, F.

2014-08-01

We report on a new source of tidal variability in the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM). Lower boundary forcing of the TIME-GCM for a simulation of November-December 2009 based on 3-hourly Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) reanalysis data includes day-to-day variations in both diurnal and semidiurnal tides of tropospheric origin. Comparison with TIME-GCM results from a heretofore standard simulation that includes climatological tropospheric tides from the global-scale wave model reveal evidence of the impacts of MERRA forcing throughout the model domain, including measurable tidal variability in the TIME-GCM upper thermosphere. Additional comparisons with measurements made by the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer satellite show improved TIME-GCM capability to capture day-to-day variations in thermospheric density for the November-December 2009 period with the new MERRA lower boundary forcing.

Using Discrete Event Simulation to Model the Economic Value of Shorter Procedure Times on EP Lab Efficiency in the VALUE PVI Study.

PubMed

Kowalski, Marcin; DeVille, J Brian; Svinarich, J Thomas; Dan, Dan; Wickliffe, Andrew; Kantipudi, Charan; Foell, Jason D; Filardo, Giovanni; Holbrook, Reece; Baker, James; Baydoun, Hassan; Jenkins, Mark; Chang-Sing, Peter

2016-05-01

The VALUE PVI study demonstrated that atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation procedures and electrophysiology laboratory (EP lab) occupancy times were reduced for the cryoballoon compared with focal radiofrequency (RF) ablation. However, the economic impact associated with the cryoballoon procedure for hospitals has not been determined. Assess the economic value associated with shorter AF ablation procedure times based on VALUE PVI data. A model was formulated from data from the VALUE PVI study. This model used a discrete event simulation to translate procedural efficiencies into metrics utilized by hospital administrators. A 1000-day period was simulated to determine the accrued impact of procedure time on an institution's EP lab when considering staff and hospital resources. The simulation demonstrated that procedures performed with the cryoballoon catheter resulted in several efficiencies, including: (1) a reduction of 36.2% in days with overtime (422 days RF vs 60 days cryoballoon); (2) 92.7% less cumulative overtime hours (370 hours RF vs 27 hours cryoballoon); and (3) an increase of 46.7% in days with time for an additional EP lab usage (186 days RF vs 653 days cryoballoon). Importantly, the added EP lab utilization could not support the time required for an additional AF ablation procedure. The discrete event simulation of the VALUE PVI data demonstrates the potential positive economic value of AF ablation procedures using the cryoballoon. These benefits include more days where overtime is avoided, fewer cumulative overtime hours, and more days with time left for additional usage of EP lab resources.

Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701-1850 based on documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Montávez Gómez, J. P.

2012-01-01

In this work, a reconstruction of climatic conditions in Andalusia (southern Iberian Peninsula) during the period 1701-1850, as well as an evaluation of its associated uncertainties, is presented. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of Tambora in 1815), at a time when any increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations was of minor importance. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. The reconstruction methodology is based on counting the number of extreme events in the past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the seasonal means of climate variables. This reconstruction methodology is tested within the pseudoreality of a high-resolution paleoclimate simulation performed with the regional climate model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. The results show that the reconstructions are influenced by the reference period chosen and the threshold values used to define extreme values. This creates uncertainties which are assessed within the context of climate simulation. An ensemble of reconstructions was obtained using two different reference periods (1885-1915 and 1960-1990) and two pairs of percentiles as threshold values (10-90 and 25-75). The results correspond to winter temperature, and winter, spring and autumn rainfall, and they are compared with simulations of the climate model for the considered period. The mean value of winter temperature for the period 1781-1850 was 10.6 ± 0.1 °C (11.0 °C for the reference period 1960-1990). The mean value of winter rainfall for the period 1701-1850 was 267 ± 18 mm (224 mm for 1960-1990). The mean values of spring and autumn rainfall were 164 ± 11 and 194 ± 16 mm (129 and 162 mm for 1960-1990, respectively). Comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790-1820 and 1960-1990 indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of dry and warm (wet and cold) winters was lower (higher) than during the reference period: temperatures were up to 0.5 °C lower than the 1960-1990 value, and rainfall was 4% higher.

Use of the landmark method to address immortal person-time bias in comparative effectiveness research: a simulation study.

PubMed

Mi, Xiaojuan; Hammill, Bradley G; Curtis, Lesley H; Lai, Edward Chia-Cheng; Setoguchi, Soko

2016-11-20

Observational comparative effectiveness and safety studies are often subject to immortal person-time, a period of follow-up during which outcomes cannot occur because of the treatment definition. Common approaches, like excluding immortal time from the analysis or naïvely including immortal time in the analysis, are known to result in biased estimates of treatment effect. Other approaches, such as the Mantel-Byar and landmark methods, have been proposed to handle immortal time. Little is known about the performance of the landmark method in different scenarios. We conducted extensive Monte Carlo simulations to assess the performance of the landmark method compared with other methods in settings that reflect realistic scenarios. We considered four landmark times for the landmark method. We found that the Mantel-Byar method provided unbiased estimates in all scenarios, whereas the exclusion and naïve methods resulted in substantial bias when the hazard of the event was constant or decreased over time. The landmark method performed well in correcting immortal person-time bias in all scenarios when the treatment effect was small, and provided unbiased estimates when there was no treatment effect. The bias associated with the landmark method tended to be small when the treatment rate was higher in the early follow-up period than it was later. These findings were confirmed in a case study of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Interaction of the Climate System and the Solid Earth: Analysis of Observations and Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bryan, Frank

2001-01-01

Under SENH funding we have carried out a number of diverse analyses of interactions of the climate system (atmosphere, ocean, land surface hydrology) with the solid Earth. While the original work plan emphasized analysis of excitation of variations in Earth rotation, with a lesser emphasis on time variable gravity, opportunities that developed during the proposal period in connection with preparations for the GRACE mission led us to a more balanced effort between these two topics. The results of our research are outlined in several topical sections: (1) oceanic excitation of variations in Earth rotation; (2) short period atmosphere-ocean excitation of variations in Earth rotation; (3) analysis of coupled climate system simulation; (4) observing system simulation studies for GRACE mission design; and (5) oceanic response to atmospheric pressure loading.

Plasma density enhancement in atmospheric-pressure dielectric-barrier discharges by high-voltage nanosecond pulse in the pulse-on period: a PIC simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sang, Chaofeng; Sun, Jizhong; Wang, Dezhen

2010-02-01

A particle-in-cell (PIC) plus Monte Carlo collision simulation is employed to investigate how a sustainable atmospheric pressure single dielectric-barrier discharge responds to a high-voltage nanosecond pulse (HVNP) further applied to the metal electrode. The results show that the HVNP can significantly increase the plasma density in the pulse-on period. The ion-induced secondary electrons can give rise to avalanche ionization in the positive sheath, which widens the discharge region and enhances the plasma density drastically. However, the plasma density stops increasing as the applied pulse lasts over certain time; therefore, lengthening the pulse duration alone cannot improve the discharge efficiency further. Physical reasons for these phenomena are then discussed.

Agent-based simulation of a financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raberto, Marco; Cincotti, Silvano; Focardi, Sergio M.; Marchesi, Michele

2001-10-01

This paper introduces an agent-based artificial financial market in which heterogeneous agents trade one single asset through a realistic trading mechanism for price formation. Agents are initially endowed with a finite amount of cash and a given finite portfolio of assets. There is no money-creation process; the total available cash is conserved in time. In each period, agents make random buy and sell decisions that are constrained by available resources, subject to clustering, and dependent on the volatility of previous periods. The model proposed herein is able to reproduce the leptokurtic shape of the probability density of log price returns and the clustering of volatility. Implemented using extreme programming and object-oriented technology, the simulator is a flexible computational experimental facility that can find applications in both academic and industrial research projects.

Spectral simulation of unsteady compressible flow past a circular cylinder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Don, Wai-Sun; Gottlieb, David

1990-01-01

An unsteady compressible viscous wake flow past a circular cylinder was successfully simulated using spectral methods. A new approach in using the Chebyshev collocation method for periodic problems is introduced. It was further proved that the eigenvalues associated with the differentiation matrix are purely imaginary, reflecting the periodicity of the problem. It was been shown that the solution of a model problem has exponential growth in time if improper boundary conditions are used. A characteristic boundary condition, which is based on the characteristics of the Euler equations of gas dynamics, was derived for the spectral code. The primary vortex shedding frequency computed agrees well with the results in the literature for Mach = 0.4, Re = 80. No secondary frequency is observed in the power spectrum analysis of the pressure data.

Causality and correlations between BSE and NYSE indexes: A Janus faced relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neeraj; Panigrahi, Prasanta K.

2017-09-01

We study the multi-scale temporal correlations and causality connections between the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) monthly average closing price indexes for a period of 300 months, encompassing the time period of the liberalisation of the Indian economy and its gradual global exposure. In multi-scale analysis; clearly identifiable 1, 2 and 3 year non-stationary periodic modulations in NYSE and BSE have been observed, with NYSE commensurating changes in BSE at 3 years scale. Interestingly, at one year time scale, the two exchanges are phase locked only during the turbulent times, while at the scale of three year, in-phase nature is observed for a much longer time frame. The two year time period, having characteristics of both one and three year variations, acts as the transition regime. The normalised NYSE's stock value is found to Granger cause those of BSE, with a time lag of 9 months. Surprisingly, observed Granger causality of high frequency variations reveals BSE behaviour getting reflected in the NYSE index fluctuations, after a smaller time lag. This Janus faced relationship, shows that smaller stock exchanges may provide a natural setting for simulating market fluctuations of much bigger exchanges. This possibly arises due to the fact that high frequency fluctuations form an universal part of the financial time series, and are expected to exhibit similar characteristics in open market economies.

Regenerative life support system research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

Sections on modeling, experimental activities during the grant period, and topics under consideration for the future are contained. The sessions contain discussions of: four concurrent modeling approaches that were being integrated near the end of the period (knowledge-based modeling support infrastructure and data base management, object-oriented steady state simulations for three concepts, steady state mass-balance engineering tradeoff studies, and object-oriented time-step, quasidynamic simulations of generic concepts); interdisciplinary research activities, beginning with a discussion of RECON lab development and use, and followed with discussions of waste processing research, algae studies and subsystem modeling, low pressure growth testing of plants, subsystem modeling of plants, control of plant growth using lighting and CO2 supply as variables, search for and development of lunar soil simulants, preliminary design parameters for a lunar base life support system, and research considerations for food processing in space; and appendix materials, including a discussion of the CELSS Conference, detailed analytical equations for mass-balance modeling, plant modeling equations, and parametric data on existing life support systems for use in modeling.

Transition to turbulence in plane channel flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biringen, S.

1984-01-01

Results obtained from a numerical simulation of the final stages of transition to turbulence in plane channel flow are described. Three dimensional, incompressible Navier-Stokes equations are numerically integrated to obtain the time evolution of two and three dimensional finite amplitude disturbances. Computations are performed on CYBER-203 vector processor for a 32x51x32 grid. Results are presented for no-slip boundary conditions at the solid walls as well as for periodic suction blowing to simulate active control of transition by mass transfer. Solutions indicate that the method is capable of simulating the complex character of vorticity dynamics during the various stages of transition and final breakdown. In particular, evidence points to the formation of a lambda-shape vortex and the subsequent system of horseshoe vortices inclined to the main flow direction as the main elements of transition. Calculations involving periodic suction-blowing indicate that interference with a wave of suitable phase and amplitude reduces the disturbance growth rates.

vmdICE: a plug-in for rapid evaluation of molecular dynamics simulations using VMD.

PubMed

Knapp, Bernhard; Lederer, Nadja; Omasits, Ulrich; Schreiner, Wolfgang

2010-12-01

Molecular dynamics (MD) is a powerful in silico method to investigate the interactions between biomolecules. It solves Newton's equations of motion for atoms over a specified period of time and yields a trajectory file, containing the different spatial arrangements of atoms during the simulation. The movements and energies of each single atom are recorded. For evaluating of these simulation trajectories with regard to biomedical implications, several methods are available. Three well-known ones are the root mean square deviation (RMSD), the root mean square fluctuation (RMSF) and solvent accessible surface area (SASA). Herein, we present a novel plug-in for the software "visual molecular dynamics" (VMD) that allows an interactive 3D representation of RMSD, RMSF, and SASA, directly on the molecule. On the one hand, our plug-in is easy to handle for inexperienced users, and on the other hand, it provides a fast and flexible graphical impression of the spatial dynamics of a system for experts in the field. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Statistical Methods and Sampling Design for Estimating Step Trends in Surface-Water Quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, Robert M.

1988-01-01

This paper addresses two components of the problem of estimating the magnitude of step trends in surface water quality. The first is finding a robust estimator appropriate to the data characteristics expected in water-quality time series. The J. L. Hodges-E. L. Lehmann class of estimators is found to be robust in comparison to other nonparametric and moment-based estimators. A seasonal Hodges-Lehmann estimator is developed and shown to have desirable properties. Second, the effectiveness of various sampling strategies is examined using Monte Carlo simulation coupled with application of this estimator. The simulation is based on a large set of total phosphorus data from the Potomac River. To assure that the simulated records have realistic properties, the data are modeled in a multiplicative fashion incorporating flow, hysteresis, seasonal, and noise components. The results demonstrate the importance of balancing the length of the two sampling periods and balancing the number of data values between the two periods.

A fast parallel clustering algorithm for molecular simulation trajectories.

PubMed

Zhao, Yutong; Sheong, Fu Kit; Sun, Jian; Sander, Pedro; Huang, Xuhui

2013-01-15

We implemented a GPU-powered parallel k-centers algorithm to perform clustering on the conformations of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The algorithm is up to two orders of magnitude faster than the CPU implementation. We tested our algorithm on four protein MD simulation datasets ranging from the small Alanine Dipeptide to a 370-residue Maltose Binding Protein (MBP). It is capable of grouping 250,000 conformations of the MBP into 4000 clusters within 40 seconds. To achieve this, we effectively parallelized the code on the GPU and utilize the triangle inequality of metric spaces. Furthermore, the algorithm's running time is linear with respect to the number of cluster centers. In addition, we found the triangle inequality to be less effective in higher dimensions and provide a mathematical rationale. Finally, using Alanine Dipeptide as an example, we show a strong correlation between cluster populations resulting from the k-centers algorithm and the underlying density. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Periodic, Quasi-periodic and Chaotic Dynamics in Simple Gene Elements with Time Delays

PubMed Central

Suzuki, Yoko; Lu, Mingyang; Ben-Jacob, Eshel; Onuchic, José N.

2016-01-01

Regulatory gene circuit motifs play crucial roles in performing and maintaining vital cellular functions. Frequently, theoretical studies of gene circuits focus on steady-state behaviors and do not include time delays. In this study, the inclusion of time delays is shown to entirely change the time-dependent dynamics for even the simplest possible circuits with one and two gene elements with self and cross regulations. These elements can give rise to rich behaviors including periodic, quasi-periodic, weak chaotic, strong chaotic and intermittent dynamics. We introduce a special power-spectrum-based method to characterize and discriminate these dynamical modes quantitatively. Our simulation results suggest that, while a single negative feedback loop of either one- or two-gene element can only have periodic dynamics, the elements with two positive/negative feedback loops are the minimalist elements to have chaotic dynamics. These elements typically have one negative feedback loop that generates oscillations, and another unit that allows frequent switches among multiple steady states or between oscillatory and non-oscillatory dynamics. Possible dynamical features of several simple one- and two-gene elements are presented in details. Discussion is presented for possible roles of the chaotic behavior in the robustness of cellular functions and diseases, for example, in the context of cancer. PMID:26876008

Periodic, Quasi-periodic and Chaotic Dynamics in Simple Gene Elements with Time Delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Yoko; Lu, Mingyang; Ben-Jacob, Eshel; Onuchic, José N.

2016-02-01

Regulatory gene circuit motifs play crucial roles in performing and maintaining vital cellular functions. Frequently, theoretical studies of gene circuits focus on steady-state behaviors and do not include time delays. In this study, the inclusion of time delays is shown to entirely change the time-dependent dynamics for even the simplest possible circuits with one and two gene elements with self and cross regulations. These elements can give rise to rich behaviors including periodic, quasi-periodic, weak chaotic, strong chaotic and intermittent dynamics. We introduce a special power-spectrum-based method to characterize and discriminate these dynamical modes quantitatively. Our simulation results suggest that, while a single negative feedback loop of either one- or two-gene element can only have periodic dynamics, the elements with two positive/negative feedback loops are the minimalist elements to have chaotic dynamics. These elements typically have one negative feedback loop that generates oscillations, and another unit that allows frequent switches among multiple steady states or between oscillatory and non-oscillatory dynamics. Possible dynamical features of several simple one- and two-gene elements are presented in details. Discussion is presented for possible roles of the chaotic behavior in the robustness of cellular functions and diseases, for example, in the context of cancer.

Simulated Space Radiation and Weightlessness: Vascular-Bone Coupling Mechanisms to Preserve Skeletal Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Globus, R. K.; Alwood, J.; Tahimic, C.; Schreurs, A.-S.; Shirazi-Fard, Y.; Terada, M.; Zaragoza, J.; Truong, T.; Bruns, K.; Castillo, A.;

A Scheme to Smooth Aggregated Traffic from Sensors with Periodic Reports

PubMed Central

Oh, Sungmin; Jang, Ju Wook

2017-01-01

The possibility of smoothing aggregated traffic from sensors with varying reporting periods and frame sizes to be carried on an access link is investigated. A straightforward optimization would take O(pn) time, whereas our heuristic scheme takes O(np) time where n, p denote the number of sensors and size of periods, respectively. Our heuristic scheme performs local optimization sensor by sensor, starting with the smallest to largest periods. This is based on an observation that sensors with large offsets have more choices in offsets to avoid traffic peaks than the sensors with smaller periods. A MATLAB simulation shows that our scheme excels the known scheme by M. Grenier et al. in a similar situation (aggregating periodic traffic in a controller area network) for almost all possible permutations. The performance of our scheme is very close to the straightforward optimization, which compares all possible permutations. We expect that our scheme would greatly contribute in smoothing the traffic from an ever-increasing number of IoT sensors to the gateway, reducing the burden on the access link to the Internet. PMID:28273831

A Scheme to Smooth Aggregated Traffic from Sensors with Periodic Reports.

PubMed

Oh, Sungmin; Jang, Ju Wook

2017-03-03

The possibility of smoothing aggregated traffic from sensors with varying reporting periods and frame sizes to be carried on an access link is investigated. A straightforward optimization would take O(pn) time, whereas our heuristic scheme takes O(np) time where n, p denote the number of sensors and size of periods, respectively. Our heuristic scheme performs local optimization sensor by sensor, starting with the smallest to largest periods. This is based on an observation that sensors with large offsets have more choices in offsets to avoid traffic peaks than the sensors with smaller periods. A MATLAB simulation shows that our scheme excels the known scheme by M. Grenier et al. in a similar situation (aggregating periodic traffic in a controller area network) for almost all possible permutations. The performance of our scheme is very close to the straightforward optimization, which compares all possible permutations. We expect that our scheme would greatly contribute in smoothing the traffic from an ever-increasing number of IoT sensors to the gateway, reducing the burden on the access link to the Internet.

Simulation of ground-water flow and solute transport in the Glen Canyon aquifer, East-Central Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freethey, Geoffrey W.; Stolp, Bernard J.

2010-01-01

The extraction of methane from coal beds in the Ferron coal trend in central Utah started in the mid-1980s. Beginning in 1994, water from the extraction process was pressure injected into the Glen Canyon aquifer. The lateral extent of the aquifer that could be affected by injection is about 7,600 square miles. To address regional-scale effects of injection over a decadal time frame, a conceptual model of ground-water movement and transport of dissolved solids was formulated. A numerical model that incorporates aquifer concepts was then constructed and used to simulate injection.The Glen Canyon aquifer within the study area is conceptualized in two parts—an active area of ground-water flow and solute transport that exists between recharge areas in the San Rafael Swell and Desert, Waterpocket Fold, and Henry Mountains and discharge locations along the Muddy, Dirty Devil, San Rafael, and Green Rivers. An area of little or negligible ground-water flow exists north of Price, Utah, and beneath the Wasatch Plateau. Pressurized injection of coal-bed methane production water occurs in this area where dissolved-solids concentrations can be more than 100,000 milligrams per liter. Injection has the potential to increase hydrologic interaction with the active flow area, where dissolved-solids concentrations are generally less than 3,000 milligrams per liter.Pressurized injection of coal-bed methane production water in 1994 initiated a net addition of flow and mass of solutes into the Glen Canyon aquifer. To better understand the regional scale hydrologic interaction between the two areas of the Glen Canyon aquifer, pressurized injection was numerically simulated. Data constraints precluded development of a fully calibrated simulation; instead, an uncalibrated model was constructed that is a plausible representation of the conceptual flow and solute-transport processes. The amount of injected water over the 36-year simulation period is about 25,000 acre-feet. As a result, simulated water levels in the injection areas increased by 50 feet and dissolved-solids concentrations increased by 100 milligrams per liter or more. These increases are accrued into aquifer storage and do not extend to the rivers during the 36-year simulation period. The amount of change in simulated discharge and solute load to the rivers is less than the resolution accuracy of the numerical simulation and is interpreted as no significant change over the considered time period.

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow, eastern and western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jeton, A.E.; Dettinger, M.D.; Smith, J. LaRue

1996-01-01

Precipitation-runoff models of the East Fork Carson and North Fork American Rivers were developed and calibrated for use in evaluating the sensitivity of streamflow in the north-central Sierra Nevada to climate change. The East Fork Carson River drains part of the rain-shadowed, eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada and is generally higher than the North Fork American River, which drains the wetter, western slope. First, a geographic information system was developed to describe the spatial variability of basin characteristics and to help estimate model parameters. The result was a partitioning of each basin into noncontiguous, but hydrologically uniform, land units. Hydrologic descriptions of these units were developed and the Precipitation- Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to simulate water and energy balances for each unit in response to daily weather conditions. The models were calibrated and verified using historical streamflows over 22-year (Carson River) and 42-year (American River) periods. Simulated annual streamflow errors average plus 10 percent of the observed flow for the East Fork Carson River basin and plus 15 percent for the North Fork American River basin. Interannual variability is well simulated overall, but, at daily scales, wet periods are simulated more accurately than drier periods. The simulated water budgets for the two basins are significantly different in seasonality of streamflow, sublimation, evapotranspiration, and snowmelt. The simulations indicate that differences in snowpack and snowmelt timing can play pervasive roles in determining the sensitivity of water resources to climate change, in terms of both resource availability and amount. The calibrated models were driven by more than 25 hypothetical climate-change scenarios, each 100 years long. The scenarios were synthesized and spatially disaggregated by methods designed to preserve realistic daily, monthly, annual, and spatial statistics. Simulated streamflow timing was not very sensitive to changes in mean precipitation, but was sensitive to changes in mean temperatures. Changes in annual streamflow amounts were amplified reflections of imposed mean precipitation changes, with especially large responses to wetter climates. In contrast, streamflow amount was surprisingly insensitive to mean temperature changes as a result of temporal links between peak snowmelt and the beginning of warm-season evapotranspiration. Comparisons of simulations driven by temporally detailed climate-model changes in which mean temperature changes vary from month to month and simulations in which uniform climate changes were imposed throughout the year indicate that the snowpack accumulates the influences of short-term conditions so that season average climate changes were more important than shorter term changes.

Flowfield analysis of helicopter rotor in hover and forward flight based on CFD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Qinghe; Li, Xiaodong

2018-05-01

The helicopter rotor field is simulated in hover and forward flight based on Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD). In hover case only one rotor is simulated with the periodic boundary condition in the rotational coordinate system and the grid is fixed. In the non-lift forward flight case, the total rotor is simulated in inertia coordinate system and the whole grid moves rigidly. The dual-time implicit scheme is applied to simulate the unsteady flowfield on the movement grids. The k – ω turbulence model is employed in order to capture the effects of turbulence. To verify the solver, the flowfield around the Caradonna-Tung rotor is computed. The comparison shows a good agreement between the numerical results and the experimental data.

Simulation of streamflow in small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, R.S.; Norris, J.M.

1989-01-01

Coal mining operations in northwestern Colorado commonly are located in areas that have minimal available water-resource information. Drainage-basin models can be a method for extending water-resource information to include periods for which there are no records or to transfer the information to areas that have no streamflow-gaging stations. To evaluate the magnitude and variability of the components of the water balance in the small drainage basins monitored, and to provide some method for transfer of hydrologic data, the U.S. Geological Survey 's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was used for small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin to simulate daily mean streamflow using daily precipitation and air-temperature data. The study area was divided into three hydrologic regions, and in each of these regions, three drainage basins were monitored. Two of the drainage basins in each region were used to calibrate the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The model was not calibrated for the third drainage basin in each region; instead, parameter values were transferred from the model that was calibrated for the two drainage basins. For all of the drainage basins except one, period of record used for calibration and verification included water years 1976-81. Simulated annual volumes of streamflow for drainage basins used in calibration compared well with observed values; individual hydrographs indicated timing differences between the observed and simulated daily mean streamflow. Observed and simulated annual average streamflows compared well for the periods of record, but values of simulated high and low streamflows were different than observed values. Similar results were obtained when calibrated model parameter values were transferred to drainage basins that were uncalibrated. (USGS)

Atmospheric dynamical changes as a contributor to deglacial climate variability: results from an ensemble of transient deglacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres, Heather; Tarasov, Lev

2017-04-01

The atmosphere is often assumed to play a passive role in centennial- to millennial-timescale climate variations of the last deglaciation due to its short response times ( years) and the absence of abrupt changes in external climate forcings. Nevertheless, atmospheric dynamical responses to changes in ice sheet topography and albedo can affect the entire Northern Hemisphere through the altering of Rossby stationary wave patterns and changes to the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. These responses appear sensitive to the particular configuration of Northern Hemisphere land ice, so small changes have the potential to reorganize atmospheric circulation with impacts on precipitation distributions, ocean surface currents and sea ice extent. Indirect proxy evidence, idealized theoretical studies, and "snapshot" simulations performed at different periods during the last glacial cycle indicate that between the Last Glacial Maximum and the preindustrial period the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet weakened, became less zonally-oriented, and exhibited greater variability. How the transition (or transitions) between the glacial atmospheric state and the interglacial state occurred is less clear. To address this question, we performed an ensemble of transient simulations of the last deglaciation using the Planet Simulator coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation-sea ice model (PlaSim, at an atmospheric resolution of T42) forced by variants of the GLAC1-D deglacial ice sheet chronology. We characterize simulated changes in stationary wave patterns over this period as well as changes in the strength and position of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. In particular, we document the range of timescales for these changes and compare the simulated climate signatures of these transitions to data archives of precipitation and sea ice extent.

On the relevance of chaos for halo stars in the solar neighbourhood II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maffione, Nicolas P.; Gómez, Facundo A.; Cincotta, Pablo M.; Giordano, Claudia M.; Grand, Robert J. J.; Marinacci, Federico; Pakmor, Rüdiger; Simpson, Christine M.; Springel, Volker; Frenk, Carlos S.

2018-05-01

In a previous paper based on dark matter only simulations we show that, in the approximation of an analytic and static potential describing the strongly triaxial and cuspy shape of Milky Way-sized haloes, diffusion due to chaotic mixing in the neighbourhood of the Sun does not efficiently erase phase space signatures of past accretion events. In this second paper we further explore the effect of chaotic mixing using multicomponent Galactic potential models and solar neighbourhood-like volumes extracted from fully cosmological hydrodynamic simulations, thus naturally accounting for the gravitational potential associated with baryonic components, such as the bulge and disc. Despite the strong change in the global Galactic potentials with respect to those obtained in dark matter only simulations, our results confirm that a large fraction of halo particles evolving on chaotic orbits exhibit their chaotic behaviour after periods of time significantly larger than a Hubble time. In addition, significant diffusion in phase space is not observed on those particles that do exhibit chaotic behaviour within a Hubble time.

An analytical study of reduced-gravity propellant settling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradshaw, R. D.; Kramer, J. L.; Masica, W. J.

1974-01-01

Full-scale propellant reorientation flow dynamics for the Centaur D-1T fuel tank were analyzed. A computer code using the simplified marker and cell technique was modified to include the capability for a variable-grid mesh configuration. Use of smaller cells near the boundary, near baffles, and in corners provides improved flow resolution. Two drop tower model cases were simulated to verify program validity: one case without baffles, the other with baffles and geometry identical to Centaur D-1T. Flow phenomena using the new code successfully modeled drop tower data. Baffles are a positive factor in the settling flow. Two full-scale Centaur D-1T cases were simulated using parameters based on the Titan/Centaur proof flight. These flow simulations indicated the time to clear the vent area and an indication of time to orient and collect the propellant. The results further indicated the complexity of the reorientation flow and the long time period required for settling.

Choice of no-slip curved boundary condition for lattice Boltzmann simulations of high-Reynolds-number flows.

PubMed

Sanjeevi, Sathish K P; Zarghami, Ahad; Padding, Johan T

2018-04-01

Various curved no-slip boundary conditions available in literature improve the accuracy of lattice Boltzmann simulations compared to the traditional staircase approximation of curved geometries. Usually, the required unknown distribution functions emerging from the solid nodes are computed based on the known distribution functions using interpolation or extrapolation schemes. On using such curved boundary schemes, there will be mass loss or gain at each time step during the simulations, especially apparent at high Reynolds numbers, which is called mass leakage. Such an issue becomes severe in periodic flows, where the mass leakage accumulation would affect the computed flow fields over time. In this paper, we examine mass leakage of the most well-known curved boundary treatments for high-Reynolds-number flows. Apart from the existing schemes, we also test different forced mass conservation schemes and a constant density scheme. The capability of each scheme is investigated and, finally, recommendations for choosing a proper boundary condition scheme are given for stable and accurate simulations.

Choice of no-slip curved boundary condition for lattice Boltzmann simulations of high-Reynolds-number flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanjeevi, Sathish K. P.; Zarghami, Ahad; Padding, Johan T.

2018-04-01

Various curved no-slip boundary conditions available in literature improve the accuracy of lattice Boltzmann simulations compared to the traditional staircase approximation of curved geometries. Usually, the required unknown distribution functions emerging from the solid nodes are computed based on the known distribution functions using interpolation or extrapolation schemes. On using such curved boundary schemes, there will be mass loss or gain at each time step during the simulations, especially apparent at high Reynolds numbers, which is called mass leakage. Such an issue becomes severe in periodic flows, where the mass leakage accumulation would affect the computed flow fields over time. In this paper, we examine mass leakage of the most well-known curved boundary treatments for high-Reynolds-number flows. Apart from the existing schemes, we also test different forced mass conservation schemes and a constant density scheme. The capability of each scheme is investigated and, finally, recommendations for choosing a proper boundary condition scheme are given for stable and accurate simulations.

Digital holographic microscopy long-term and real-time monitoring of cell division and changes under simulated zero gravity.

PubMed

Pan, Feng; Liu, Shuo; Wang, Zhe; Shang, Peng; Xiao, Wen

2012-05-07

The long-term and real-time monitoring the cell division and changes of osteoblasts under simulated zero gravity condition were succeed by combing a digital holographic microscopy (DHM) with a superconducting magnet (SM). The SM could generate different magnetic force fields in a cylindrical cavity, where the gravitational force of biological samples could be canceled at a special gravity position by a high magnetic force. Therefore the specimens were levitated and in a simulated zero gravity environment. The DHM was modified to fit with SM by using single mode optical fibers and a vertically-configured jig designed to hold specimens and integrate optical device in the magnet's bore. The results presented the first-phase images of living cells undergoing dynamic divisions and changes under simulated zero gravity environment for a period of 10 hours. The experiments demonstrated that the SM-compatible DHM setup could provide a highly efficient and versatile method for research on the effects of microgravity on biological samples.

Ionosphere variability at mid latitudes during sudden stratosphere warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedatella, N. M.; Maute, A. I.; Maruyama, N.

2015-12-01

Variability of the mid latitude ionosphere and thermosphere during the 2009 and 2013 sudden stratosphere warmings (SSWs) is investigated in the present study using a combination of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) observations and model simulations. The simulations are performed using the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE) model. Both the COSMIC observations and TIME-GCM simulations reveal perturbations in the F-region peak height (hmF2) at Southern Hemisphere mid latitudes during SSW time periods. The perturbations are ~20-30 km, which corresponds to 10-20% variability in hmF2. The TIME-GCM simulations and COSMIC observations of the hmF2 variability are in overall good agreement, and the simulations can thus be used to understand the physical processes responsible for the hmF2 variability. The simulation results demonstrate that the mid lattiude hmF2 variability is primarily driven by the propagation of the migrating semidiurnal lunar tide (M2) into the thermosphere where it modulates the field aligned neutrals winds, which in-turn raise and lower the F-region peak height. The importance of the thermosphere neutral winds on generating the ionosphere variability at mid latitudes during SSWs is supported by IPE simulations performed both with and without the neutral wind variability. Though there are subtle differences, the consistency of the behavior between the 2009 and 2013 SSWs suggests that variability in the Southern Hemisphere mid latitude ionosphere and thermosphere is a consistent feature of the SSW impact on the upper atmosphere.

Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the Christina River subbasin and overview of simulations in other subbasins of the Christina River Basin, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware, 1994-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senior, Lisa A.; Koerkle, Edward H.

2003-01-01

The Christina River Basin drains 565 square miles (mi2) in Pennsylvania and Delaware and includes the major subbasins of Brandywine Creek, Red Clay Creek, White Clay Creek, and Christina River. The Christina River subbasin (exclusive of the Brandywine, Red Clay, and White Clay Creek subbasins) drains an area of 76 mi2. Streams in the Christina River Basin are used for recreation, drinking water supply, and support of aquatic life. Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the stream. A multi-agency water-quality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point- and nonpoint-source contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on stream water quality. To assist in nonpoint-source evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the four main subbasins of the Christina River Basin, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in small subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint- source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base-flow samples were collected during 1998 at two sites in the Christina River subbasin and nine sites elsewhere in the Christina River Basin.The HSPF model for the Christina River subbasin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into nine reaches draining areas that ranged from 3.8 to 21.9 mi2. Ten different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the Christina River subbasin are residential, urban, forested, agricultural, and open.The hydrologic component of the model was run at an hourly time step and calibrated using streamflow data from two U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-measurement stations for the period of October 1, 1994, through October 29, 1998. Daily precipitation data from one National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) meteorologic station and hourly data from one NOAA meteorologic station were used for model input. The difference between observed and simulated streamflow volume ranged from -2.3 to 5.3 percent for a 10-month portion of the calibration period at the two calibration sites. Annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow generally were greater than the overall error for the 4-year period. For example, at Christina River at Coochs Bridge, near the bottom of the free-flowing part of the subbasin (drainage area of 21 mi2), annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow ranged from -6.9 to 6.5 percent and the overall error for the 4-year period was -1.1 percent. Calibration errors for 36 storm periods at the three calibration sites for total volume, low-flow recession rate, 50-percent lowest flows, 10-percent highest flows, and storm peaks were within the recommended criteria of 20 percent or less. Much of the error in simulating storm events on an hourly time step can be attributed to uncertainty in the rainfall data.The water-quality component of the model was calibrated using nonpoint-source monitoring data collected at two USGS streamflow-measurement stations and other water-quality monitoring data. The period of record for water-quality monitoring was variable at the stations, with a start date ranging from October 1994 to January 1998 and an end date of October 1998. Because of availability, monitoring data for suspended-solids concentrations were used as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations, although suspended-solids data may underestimate suspended sediment and affect apparent accuracy of the suspended-sediment simulaion. Comparison of observed to simulated loads for up to six storms in 1998 at the two nonpoint-source monitoring sites (Little Mill Creek near Newport and Christina River at Coochs Bridge, Del.) indicate that simulation error is commonly as large as an order of magnitude for suspended sediment and nutrients. The simulation error tends to be smaller for dissolved nutrients than for particulate nutrients. Errors of 40 percent or less for monthly or annual values indicate a fair to good water-quality calibration according to recommended criteria; much larger errors are possible for individual events. Assessment of the water-quality calibration under stormflow conditions is limited by the relatively small amount of available water-quality data in the subbasin.Users of the Christina River subbasin HSPF model and HSPF models for other subbasins in the Christina River Basin should be aware of model limitations and consider the following if the model is used for predictive purposes: streamflow-duration curves suggest the model simulates streamflow reasonably well when measured over a broad range of conditions and time although streamflow and the corresponding water quality for individual storm events may not be well simulated; streamflow-duration curves for the simulation period compare well with duration curves for the 8-year period ending in 2001 at Christina River at Coochs Bridge, Del., and include all but the extreme high-flow and low-flow events; and calibration for water quality was based on limited data, with the result of increasing uncertainty in the water-quality simulation.

On estimating the phase of a periodic waveform in additive Gaussian noise, part 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rauch, L. L.

1991-01-01

Motivated by advances in signal processing technology that support more complex algorithms, researchers have taken a new look at the problem of estimating the phase and other parameters of a nearly periodic waveform in additive Gaussian noise, based on observation during a given time interval. Parts 1 and 2 are very briefly reviewed. In part 3, the actual performances of some of the highly nonlinear estimation algorithms of parts 1 and 2 are evaluated by numerical simulation using Monte Carlo techniques.

Historical gaseous and primary aerosol emissions in the United States from 1990-2010

EPA Science Inventory

An accurate description of emissions is crucial for model simulations to reproduce and interpret observed phenomena over extended time periods. In this study, we used an approach based on activity data to develop a consistent series of spatially resolved emissions in the United S...

Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature

EPA Science Inventory

We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quali...

TIGER reliability analysis in the DSN

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gunn, J. M.

1982-01-01

The TIGER algorithm, the inputs to the program and the output are described. TIGER is a computer program designed to simulate a system over a period of time to evaluate system reliability and availability. Results can be used in the Deep Space Network for initial spares provisioning and system evaluation.

Simulated effects of hydrologic, water quality, and land-use changes of the Lake Maumelle watershed, Arkansas, 2004–10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hart, Rheannon M.; Green, W. Reed; Westerman, Drew A.; Petersen, James C.; DeLanois, Jeanne L.

2012-01-01

Lake Maumelle, located in central Arkansas northwest of the cities of Little Rock and North Little Rock, is one of two principal drinking-water supplies for the Little Rock, and North Little Rock, Arkansas, metropolitan areas. Lake Maumelle and the Maumelle River (its primary tributary) are more pristine than most other reservoirs and streams in the region with 80 percent of the land area in the entire watershed being forested. However, as the Lake Maumelle watershed becomes increasingly more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more extensive, concerns about the sustainability of the quality of the water supply also have increased. Two hydrodynamic and water-quality models were developed to examine the hydrology and water quality in the Lake Maumelle watershed and changes that might occur as the watershed becomes more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more extensive. A Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN watershed model was developed using continuous streamflow and discreet suspended-sediment and water-quality data collected from January 2004 through 2010. A CE–QUAL–W2 model was developed to simulate reservoir hydrodynamics and selected water-quality characteristics using the simulated output from the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model from January 2004 through 2010. The calibrated Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model and the calibrated CE–QUAL–W2 model were developed to simulate three land-use scenarios and to examine the potential effects of these land-use changes, as defined in the model, on the water quality of Lake Maumelle during the 2004 through 2010 simulation period. These scenarios included a scenario that simulated conversion of most land in the watershed to forest (scenario 1), a scenario that simulated conversion of potentially developable land to low-intensity urban land use in part of the watershed (scenario 2), and a scenario that simulated timber harvest in part of the watershed (scenario 3). Simulated land-use changes for scenarios 1 and 3 resulted in little (generally less than 10 percent) overall effect on the simulated water quality in the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model. The land-use change of scenario 2 affected subwatersheds that include Bringle, Reece, and Yount Creek tributaries and most other subwatersheds that drain into the northern side of Lake Maumelle; large percent increases in loading rates (generally between 10 and 25 percent) included dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, dissolved orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria. For scenario 1, the simulated changes in nutrient, suspended sediment, and total organic carbon loads from the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model resulted in very slight (generally less than 10 percent) changes in simulated water quality for Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition. Following lake mixing in the falls of 2006 and 2007, phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations were higher than the baseline condition and chlorophyll a responded accordingly. The increased nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations in late October and into 2007 were enough to increase concentrations, on average, for the entire simulation period (2004–10). For scenario 2, the simulated changes in nutrient, suspended sediment, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria loads from the Lake Maumelle watershed resulted in slight changes in simulated water quality for Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition (total nitrogen decreased by 0.01 milligram per liter; dissolved orthophosphate increased by 0.001 milligram per liter; chlorophyll a decreased by 0.1 microgram per liter). The differences in these concentrations are approximately an order of magnitude less than the error between measured and simulated concentrations in the baseline model. During the driest summer in the simulation period (2006), phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations were lower than the baseline condition and chlorophyll a concentrations decreased during the same summer season. The decrease in nitrogen and chlorophyll a concentrations during the dry summer in 2006 was enough to decrease concentrations of these constituents very slightly, on average, for the entire simulation period (2004–10). For scenario 3, the changes in simulated nutrient, suspended sediment, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria loads from Lake Maumelle watershed resulted in very slight changes in simulated water quality within Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition, for most of the reservoir. Among the implications of the results of the modeling described in this report are those related to scale in both space and time. Spatial scales include limited size and location of land-use changes, their effects on loading rates, and resultant effects on water quality of Lake Maumelle. Temporally, the magnitude of the water-quality changes simulated by the land-use change scenarios over the 7-year period (2004–10) are not necessarily indicative of the changes that could be expected to occur with similar land-use changes persisting over a 20-, 30-, or 40- year period, for example. These implications should be tempered by realization of the described model limitations. The Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN watershed model was calibrated to streamflow and water-quality data from five streamflow-gaging stations, and in general, these stations characterize a range of subwatershed areas with varying land-use types. The CE–QUAL–W2 reservoir model was calibrated to water-quality data collected during January 2004 through December 2010 at three reservoir stations, representing the upper, middle, and lower sections of the reservoir. In general, the baseline simulation for the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN and the CE–QUAL–W2 models matched reasonably well to the measured data. Simulated and measured suspended-sediment concentrations during periods of base flow (streamflows not substantially influenced by runoff) agree reasonably well for Maumelle River at Williams Junction, the station representing the upper end of the watershed (with differences—simulated minus measured value—generally ranging from -15 to 41 milligrams per liter, and percent difference—relative to the measured value—ranging from -99 to 182 percent) and Maumelle River near Wye, the station just above the reservoir at the lower end (differences generally ranging from -20 to 22 milligrams per liter, and percent difference ranging from -100 to 194 percent). In general, water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration simulations followed measured seasonal trends for all stations with the largest differences occurring during periods of lowest temperatures or during the periods of lowest measured dissolved-oxygen concentrations. For the CE–QUAL–W2 model, simulated vertical distributions of water temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations agreed with measured vertical distributions over time, even for the most complex water-temperature profiles. Considering the oligotrophic-mesotrophic (low to intermediate primary productivity and associated low nutrient concentrations) condition of Lake Maumelle, simulated algae, phosphorus, and nitrogen concentrations compared well with generally low measured concentrations.

Observations and Numerical Modeling of the Jovian Ribbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cosentino, R. G.; Simon, A.; Morales-Juberias, R.; Sayanagi, K. M.

2015-01-01

Multiple wavelength observations made by the Hubble Space Telescope in early 2007 show the presence of a wavy, high-contrast feature in Jupiter's atmosphere near 30 degrees North. The "Jovian Ribbon," best seen at 410 nanometers, irregularly undulates in latitude and is time-variable in appearance. A meridional intensity gradient algorithm was applied to the observations to track the Ribbon's contour. Spectral analysis of the contour revealed that the Ribbon's structure is a combination of several wavenumbers ranging from k equals 8-40. The Ribbon is a dynamic structure that has been observed to have spectral power for dominant wavenumbers which vary over a time period of one month. The presence of the Ribbon correlates with periods when the velocity of the westward jet at the same location is highest. We conducted numerical simulations to investigate the stability of westward jets of varying speed, vertical shear, and background static stability to different perturbations. A Ribbon-like morphology was best reproduced with a 35 per millisecond westward jet that decreases in amplitude for pressures greater than 700 hectopascals and a background static stability of N equals 0.005 per second perturbed by heat pulses constrained to latitudes south of 30 degrees North. Additionally, the simulated feature had wavenumbers that qualitatively matched observations and evolved throughout the simulation reproducing the Jovian Ribbon's dynamic structure.

Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gavane, Ajinkya S., E-mail: ajinkyagavane@gmail.com; Nigam, Rahul, E-mail: rahul.nigam@hyderabad.bits-pilani.ac.in

This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations formore » such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.« less

Impact of the semidiurnal lunar tide on the midlatitude thermospheric wind and ionosphere during sudden stratosphere warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedatella, N. M.; Maute, A.

2015-12-01

Variability of the midlatitude ionosphere and thermosphere during the 2009 and 2013 sudden stratosphere warmings (SSWs) is investigated in the present study using a combination of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) observations and thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) simulations. Both the COSMIC observations and TIME-GCM simulations reveal perturbations in the F region peak height (hmF2) at Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes during SSW time periods. The perturbations are ˜20-30 km, which corresponds to 10-20% variability of the background mean hmF2. The TIME-GCM simulations and COSMIC observations of the hmF2 variability are in overall good agreement, and the simulations can thus be used to understand the physical processes responsible for the hmF2 variability. Through comparison of simulations with and without the migrating semidiurnal lunar tide (M2), we conclude that the midlatitude hmF2 variability is primarily driven by the propagation of the M2 into the thermosphere where it modulates the field-aligned neutral winds, which in turn raise and lower the F region peak height. Though there are subtle differences, the consistency of the behavior between the 2009 and 2013 SSWs suggests that variability in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude ionosphere and thermosphere is a consistent feature of the SSW impact on the upper atmosphere.

Tidal and seasonal effects on transport of pink shrimp postlarvae

USGS Publications Warehouse

Criales, Maria M.; Wang, Jingyuan; Browder, Joan A.; Robblee, M.B.

2005-01-01

Transport simulations were conducted to investigate a large seasonal peak in postlarvae of the pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus duorarum that occurs every summer on the northwestern border of Florida Bay. Daily vertical migration, a known behavior in pink shrimp postlarvae, was assumed in all scenarios investigated. A Lagrangian trajectory model was developed using a current field derived from a 3 yr ADCP (Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler) time series. To fit the estimated planktonic development time of pink shrimp, the model simulated larvae traveling at night over a 30 d period. We investigated 2 types of effects: (1) the effect of mismatch periodicity between tidal constituents and daily migration, and (2) the effect of seasonal changes in night length. The maximum eastward displacement with the semidiurnal lunar tidal constituent (M2) was 4 km, with periods of enhanced transport in both summer and winter. In contrast, eastward displacement with the semidiurnal solar tidal constituent (S2) and the lunisolar diurnal K1 was 65 km and the period of maximum distance occurred in summer every year. Because the periods of S2 and K1 are so close to the 24 h vertical migration period, and the eastward current (flood) of these constituents matches the diel cycle over extended intervals, they can induce strong horizontal transport during summer. Thus, diel vertical migration can interact with the S2 and the K1 tidal constituents and with the annual cycle of night length to produce a distinct annual cycle that may enhance transport of pink shrimp and other coastal species during summer in shallow areas of the Gulf of Mexico. ?? Inter-Research 2005.

Event detection and sub-state discovery from biomolecular simulations using higher-order statistics: application to enzyme adenylate kinase.

PubMed

Ramanathan, Arvind; Savol, Andrej J; Agarwal, Pratul K; Chennubhotla, Chakra S

2012-11-01

Biomolecular simulations at millisecond and longer time-scales can provide vital insights into functional mechanisms. Because post-simulation analyses of such large trajectory datasets can be a limiting factor in obtaining biological insights, there is an emerging need to identify key dynamical events and relating these events to the biological function online, that is, as simulations are progressing. Recently, we have introduced a novel computational technique, quasi-anharmonic analysis (QAA) (Ramanathan et al., PLoS One 2011;6:e15827), for partitioning the conformational landscape into a hierarchy of functionally relevant sub-states. The unique capabilities of QAA are enabled by exploiting anharmonicity in the form of fourth-order statistics for characterizing atomic fluctuations. In this article, we extend QAA for analyzing long time-scale simulations online. In particular, we present HOST4MD--a higher-order statistical toolbox for molecular dynamics simulations, which (1) identifies key dynamical events as simulations are in progress, (2) explores potential sub-states, and (3) identifies conformational transitions that enable the protein to access those sub-states. We demonstrate HOST4MD on microsecond timescale simulations of the enzyme adenylate kinase in its apo state. HOST4MD identifies several conformational events in these simulations, revealing how the intrinsic coupling between the three subdomains (LID, CORE, and NMP) changes during the simulations. Further, it also identifies an inherent asymmetry in the opening/closing of the two binding sites. We anticipate that HOST4MD will provide a powerful and extensible framework for detecting biophysically relevant conformational coordinates from long time-scale simulations. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dynamical analysis of rumor spreading model with impulse vaccination and time delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Liang'an; Ma, Chenyang

2017-04-01

Rumor cause unnecessary conflicts and confusion by misleading the cognition of the public, its spreading has largely influence on human affairs. All kinds of rumors and people's suspicion are often caused by the lack of official information. Hence, the official should take a variety of channels to deny the rumors. The promotion of scientific knowledge is implemented to improve the quality of the whole nation, reduce the harm caused by rumor spreading. In this paper, regarding the process of the science education that official deny the rumor many times as periodic impulse, we propose a XWYZ rumor spreading model with impulse vaccination and time delay, and analyze the global dynamics behaviors of the model. By using the discrete dynamical system determined by the comparison theory and Floquet theorem, we show that there exists a rumor-free periodic solution. Further, we show that the rumor-free periodic solution is globally attractive under appropriate conditions. We also obtain a sufficient condition for the permanence of model. Finally, with the numerical simulation, our results indicate that large vaccination rate, short impulse period or long latent period is sufficient condition for the extinction of the rumors.

A numerical study of the laminar necklace vortex system and its effect on the wake for a circular cylinder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirkil, Gokhan; Constantinescu, George

2014-11-01

Large Eddy Simulation is used to investigate the structure of the laminar horseshoe vortex (HV) system and the dynamics of the necklace vortices as they fold around the base of a circular cylinder mounted on the flat bed of an open channel for Reynolds numbers defined with the cylinder diameter, D, smaller than 4,460. The study concentrates on the analysis of the structure of the HV system in the periodic breakaway sub-regime which is characterized by the formation of three main necklace vortices. For the relatively shallow flow conditions considered in this study (H/D 1, H is the channel depth), at times, the disturbances induced by the legs of the necklace vortices do not allow the SSLs on the two sides of the cylinder to interact in a way that allows the vorticity redistribution mechanism to lead to the formation of a new wake roller. As a result, the shedding of large scale rollers in the turbulent wake is suppressed for relatively large periods of time. Simulation results show that the wake structure changes randomly between time intervals when large-scale rollers are forming and are convected in the wake (von Karman regime), and time intervals when the rollers do not form.

Large-eddy simulation of a turbulent mixing layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mansour, N. N.; Ferziger, J. H.; Reynolds, W. C.

1978-01-01

The three dimensional, time dependent (incompressible) vorticity equations were used to simulate numerically the decay of isotropic box turbulence and time developing mixing layers. The vorticity equations were spatially filtered to define the large scale turbulence field, and the subgrid scale turbulence was modeled. A general method was developed to show numerical conservation of momentum, vorticity, and energy. The terms that arise from filtering the equations were treated (for both periodic boundary conditions and no stress boundary conditions) in a fast and accurate way by using fast Fourier transforms. Use of vorticity as the principal variable is shown to produce results equivalent to those obtained by use of the primitive variable equations.

Dynamic analysis and electronic circuit implementation of a novel 3D autonomous system without linear terms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kengne, J.; Jafari, S.; Njitacke, Z. T.; Yousefi Azar Khanian, M.; Cheukem, A.

2017-11-01

Mathematical models (ODEs) describing the dynamics of almost all continuous time chaotic nonlinear systems (e.g. Lorenz, Rossler, Chua, or Chen system) involve at least a nonlinear term in addition to linear terms. In this contribution, a novel (and singular) 3D autonomous chaotic system without linear terms is introduced. This system has an especial feature of having two twin strange attractors: one ordinary and one symmetric strange attractor when the time is reversed. The complex behavior of the model is investigated in terms of equilibria and stability, bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponent plots, time series and Poincaré sections. Some interesting phenomena are found including for instance, period-doubling bifurcation, antimonotonicity (i.e. the concurrent creation and annihilation of periodic orbits) and chaos while monitoring the system parameters. Compared to the (unique) case previously reported by Xu and Wang (2014) [31], the system considered in this work displays a more 'elegant' mathematical expression and experiences richer dynamical behaviors. A suitable electronic circuit (i.e. the analog simulator) is designed and used for the investigations. Pspice based simulation results show a very good agreement with the theoretical analysis.

Quasi-equilibria in reduced Liouville spaces.

PubMed

Halse, Meghan E; Dumez, Jean-Nicolas; Emsley, Lyndon

2012-06-14

The quasi-equilibrium behaviour of isolated nuclear spin systems in full and reduced Liouville spaces is discussed. We focus in particular on the reduced Liouville spaces used in the low-order correlations in Liouville space (LCL) simulation method, a restricted-spin-space approach to efficiently modelling the dynamics of large networks of strongly coupled spins. General numerical methods for the calculation of quasi-equilibrium expectation values of observables in Liouville space are presented. In particular, we treat the cases of a time-independent Hamiltonian, a time-periodic Hamiltonian (with and without stroboscopic sampling) and powder averaging. These quasi-equilibrium calculation methods are applied to the example case of spin diffusion in solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance. We show that there are marked differences between the quasi-equilibrium behaviour of spin systems in the full and reduced spaces. These differences are particularly interesting in the time-periodic-Hamiltonian case, where simulations carried out in the reduced space demonstrate ergodic behaviour even for small spins systems (as few as five homonuclei). The implications of this ergodic property on the success of the LCL method in modelling the dynamics of spin diffusion in magic-angle spinning experiments of powders is discussed.

Probable effects of the proposed Sulphur Gulch Reservoir on Colorado River quantity and quality near Grand Junction, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, M.J.

2004-01-01

A 16,000 acre-foot reservoir is proposed to be located about 25 miles east of Grand Junction, Colorado, on a tributary of the Colorado River that drains the Sulphur Gulch watershed between De Beque and Cameo, Colorado. The Sulphur Gulch Reservoir, which would be filled by pumping water from the Colorado River, is intended to provide the Colorado River with at least 5,412.5 acre-feet of water during low-flow conditions to meet the East Slopes portion of the 10,825 acre-feet of water required under the December 20, 1999, Final Programmatic Biological Opinion for the Upper Colorado River. The reservoir also may provide additional water in the low-flow period and as much as 10,000 acre-feet of water to supplement peak flows when flows in the Colorado River are between 12,900 and 26,600 cubic feet per second. For this study, an annual stochastic mixing model with a daily time step and 1,500 Monte Carlo trials were used to evaluate the probable effect that reservoir operations may have on water quality in the Colorado River at the Government Highline Canal and the Grand Valley Irrigation Canal. Simulations of the divertible flow (ambient background streamflow), after taking into account demands of downstream water rights, indicate that divertible flow will range from 621,860 acre-feet of water in the driest year to 4,822,732 acrefeet of water in the wettest year. Because of pumping limitations, pumpable flow (amount of streamflow available after considering divertible flow and subsequent pumping constraints) will be less than divertible flow. Assuming a pumping capacity of 150 cubic feet per second and year round pumping, except during reservoir release periods, the simulations indicate that there is sufficient streamflow to fill a 16,000 acre-feet reservoir 100 percent of the time. Simulated pumpable flows in the driest year are 91,669 acre-feet and 109,500 acre-feet in the wettest year. Simulations of carryover storage together with year-round pumping indicate that there is generally sufficient pumpable flow available to refill the reservoir to capacity each year following peak-flow releases of as much as 10,000 acrefeet and low-flow releases of 5,412.5 acre-feet of water. It is assumed that at least 5,412.5 acre-feet of stored water will be released during low-flow conditions irrespective of the hydrologic condition. Simulations indicate that peak-flow release conditions (flows between 12,900 and 26,600 cubic feet per second) to allow release of 10,000 acre-feet of stored water in the spring will occur only about 50 percent of the time. Under typical (5 of 10 years) to moderately dry (3 of 10 years) hydrologic conditions, the duration of the peak-flow conditions will not allow the full 10,000 acre-feet to be released from storage to supplement peak flows. During moderate to extremely dry (2 of 10 years) hydrologic conditions, the peak-flow release conditions will not occur, and there will be no opportunity to release water from storage to supplement peak flows. In general, the simulated daily background dissolved-solids concentrations (salinity) increase due to the reservoir releases as hydrologic conditions go from wet to dry at the Government Highline Canal. For example, the simulated median concentrations during the low-flow period range from 417 milligrams per liter (wet year) to 723 milligrams per liter (dry year), whereas the simulated median concentrations observed during the peak-flow period range from 114 milligrams per liter (wet year) to 698 milligrams per liter (dry year). Background concentration values at the Grand Valley Irrigation Canal are generally only a few percent less than those at the Government Highline Canal except during dry years. Low-flow reservoir releases of 5,412.5 acre-feet and 10,825 acre-feet were simulated for a 30-day period in September, and low-flow releases of 5,412.5 acre-feet were simulated for a 78-day period in the months of August through October. In general, these low-flo

Periodic-Zone Model Predictive Control for Diurnal Closed-Loop Operation of an Artificial Pancreas

PubMed Central

Gondhalekar, Ravi; Dassau, Eyal; Zisser, Howard C.; Doyle, Francis J.

2013-01-01

Background The objective of this research is an artificial pancreas (AP) that performs automatic regulation of blood glucose levels in people with type 1 diabetes mellitus. This article describes a control strategy that performs algorithmic insulin dosing for maintaining safe blood glucose levels over prolonged, overnight periods of time and furthermore was designed with outpatient, multiday deployment in mind. Of particular concern is the prevention of nocturnal hypoglycemia, because during sleep, subjects cannot monitor themselves and may not respond to alarms. An AP intended for prolonged and unsupervised outpatient deployment must strategically reduce the risk of hypoglycemia during times of sleep, without requiring user interaction. Methods A diurnal insulin delivery strategy based on predictive control methods is proposed. The so-called “periodic-zone model predictive control” (PZMPC) strategy employs periodically time-dependent blood glucose output target zones and furthermore enforces periodically time-dependent insulin input constraints to modulate its behavior based on the time of day. Results The proposed strategy was evaluated through an extensive simulation-based study and a preliminary clinical trial. Results indicate that the proposed method delivers insulin more conservatively during nighttime than during daytime while maintaining safe blood glucose levels at all times. In clinical trials, the proposed strategy delivered 77% of the amount of insulin delivered by a time-invariant control strategy; specifically, it delivered on average 1.23 U below, compared with 0.31 U above, the nominal basal rate overnight while maintaining comparable, and safe, blood glucose values. Conclusions The proposed PZMPC algorithm strategically prevents nocturnal hypoglycemia and is considered a significant step toward deploying APs into outpatient environments for extended periods of time in full closed-loop operation. PMID:24351171

A virtual reality endoscopic simulator augments general surgery resident cancer education as measured by performance improvement.

PubMed

White, Ian; Buchberg, Brian; Tsikitis, V Liana; Herzig, Daniel O; Vetto, John T; Lu, Kim C

2014-06-01

Colorectal cancer is the second most common cause of death in the USA. The need for screening colonoscopies, and thus adequately trained endoscopists, particularly in rural areas, is on the rise. Recent increases in required endoscopic cases for surgical resident graduation by the Surgery Residency Review Committee (RRC) further emphasize the need for more effective endoscopic training during residency to determine if a virtual reality colonoscopy simulator enhances surgical resident endoscopic education by detecting improvement in colonoscopy skills before and after 6 weeks of formal clinical endoscopic training. We conducted a retrospective review of prospectively collected surgery resident data on an endoscopy simulator. Residents performed four different clinical scenarios on the endoscopic simulator before and after a 6-week endoscopic training course. Data were collected over a 5-year period from 94 different residents performing a total of 795 colonoscopic simulation scenarios. Main outcome measures included time to cecal intubation, "red out" time, and severity of simulated patient discomfort (mild, moderate, severe, extreme) during colonoscopy scenarios. Average time to intubation of the cecum was 6.8 min for those residents who had not undergone endoscopic training versus 4.4 min for those who had undergone endoscopic training (p < 0.001). Residents who could be compared against themselves (pre vs. post-training), cecal intubation times decreased from 7.1 to 4.3 min (p < 0.001). Post-endoscopy rotation residents caused less severe discomfort during simulated colonoscopy than pre-endoscopy rotation residents (4 vs. 10%; p = 0.004). Virtual reality endoscopic simulation is an effective tool for both augmenting surgical resident endoscopy cancer education and measuring improvement in resident performance after formal clinical endoscopic training.

An evaluation of Dynamic TOPMODEL in natural and human-impacted catchments for low flow simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim; Lane, Rosanna; Musuuza, Jude; Woods, Ross; Wagener, Thorsten; Howden, Nicholas

2017-04-01

Models of catchment hydrology are essential tools for drought risk management, often providing input to water resource system models, aiding our understanding of low flow processes within catchments and providing low flow simulations and predictions. However, simulating low flows is challenging as hydrological systems often demonstrate threshold effects in connectivity, non-linear groundwater contributions and a greater influence of anthropogenic modifications such as surface and ground water abstractions during low flow periods. These processes are typically not well represented in commonly used hydrological models due to knowledge, data and model limitations. Hence, a better understanding of the natural and human processes that occur during low flows, how these are represented within models and how they could be improved is required to be able to provide robust and reliable predictions of future drought events. The aim of this study is to assess the skill of dynamic TOPMODEL during low flows for both natural and human-impacted catchments. Dynamic TOPMODEL was chosen for this study as it is able to explicitly characterise connectivity and fluxes across landscapes using hydrological response units (HRU's) while still maintaining flexibility in how spatially complex the model is configured and what specific functions (i.e. abstractions or groundwater stores) are represented. We apply dynamic TOPMODEL across the River Thames catchment using daily time series of observed rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data for the period 1999 - 2014, covering two major droughts in the Thames catchment. Significantly, to assess the impact of abstractions on low flows across the Thames catchment, we incorporate functions to characterise over 3,500 monthly surface water and ground water abstractions covering the simulation period into dynamic TOPMODEL. We evaluate dynamic TOPMODEL at over 90 gauging stations across the Thames catchment against multiple signatures of catchment low-flow behaviour in a 'limits of acceptability' GLUE framework. We investigate differences in model performance between signatures, different low flow periods and for natural and human impacted catchments to better understand the ability of dynamic TOPMODEL to represent low flows in space and time. Finally, we discuss future developments of dynamic TOPMODEL to improve low flow simulation and the implications of these results for modelling hydrological extremes in natural and human impacted catchments across the UK and the world.

Free terminal time optimal control problem of an HIV model based on a conjugate gradient method.

PubMed

Jang, Taesoo; Kwon, Hee-Dae; Lee, Jeehyun

2011-10-01

The minimum duration of treatment periods and the optimal multidrug therapy for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 infection are considered. We formulate an optimal tracking problem, attempting to drive the states of the model to a "healthy" steady state in which the viral load is low and the immune response is strong. We study an optimal time frame as well as HIV therapeutic strategies by analyzing the free terminal time optimal tracking control problem. The minimum duration of treatment periods and the optimal multidrug therapy are found by solving the corresponding optimality systems with the additional transversality condition for the terminal time. We demonstrate by numerical simulations that the optimal dynamic multidrug therapy can lead to the long-term control of HIV by the strong immune response after discontinuation of therapy.

Modeling of the static recrystallization for 7055 aluminum alloy by cellular automaton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tao; Lu, Shi-hong; Zhang, Jia-bin; Li, Zheng-fang; Chen, Peng; Gong, Hai; Wu, Yun-xin

2017-09-01

In order to simulate the flow behavior and microstructure evolution during the pass interval period of the multi-pass deformation process, models of static recovery (SR) and static recrystallization (SRX) by the cellular automaton (CA) method for the 7055 aluminum alloy were established. Double-pass hot compression tests were conducted to acquire flow stress and microstructure variation during the pass interval period. With the basis of the material constants obtained from the compression tests, models of the SR, incubation period, nucleation rate and grain growth were fitted by least square method. A model of the grain topology and a statistical computation of the CA results were also introduced. The effects of the pass interval time, temperature, strain, strain rate and initial grain size on the microstructure variation for the SRX of the 7055 aluminum alloy were studied. The results show that a long pass interval time, large strain, high temperature and large strain rate are beneficial for finer grains during the pass interval period. The stable size of the static recrystallized grain is not concerned with the initial grain size, but mainly depends on the strain rate and temperature. The SRX plays a vital role in grain refinement, while the SR has no effect on the variation of microstructure morphology. Using flow stress and microstructure comparisons of the simulated and experimental CA results, the established CA models can accurately predict the flow stress and microstructure evolution during the pass interval period, and provide guidance for the selection of optimized parameters for the multi-pass deformation process.

Simulating the Effects of Widespread Adoption of Efficient Irrigation Technologies on Irrigation Water Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kendall, A. D.; Deines, J. M.; Hyndman, D. W.

2017-12-01

Irrigation technologies are changing: becoming more efficient, better managed, and capable of more precise targeting. Widespread adoption of these technologies is shifting water balances and significantly altering the hydrologic cycle in some of the largest irrigated regions in the world, such as the High Plains Aquifer of the USA. There, declining groundwater resources, increased competition from alternate uses, changing surface water supplies, and increased subsidies and incentives are pushing farmers to adopt these new technologies. Their decisions about adoption, irrigation extent, and total water use are largely unrecorded, limiting critical data for what is the single largest consumptive water use globally. Here, we present a novel data fusion of an annual water use and technology database in Kansas with our recent remotely-sensed Annual Irrigation Maps (AIM) dataset to produce a spatially and temporally complete record of these decisions. We then use this fusion to drive the Landscape Hydrologic Model (LHM), which simulates the full terrestrial water cycle at hourly timesteps for large regions. The irrigation module within LHM explicitly simulates each major irrigation technology, allowing for a comprehensive evaluation of changes in irrigation water use over time and space. Here we simulate 2000 - 2016, a period which includes a major increase in the use of modern efficient irrigation technology (such as Low Energy Precision Application, LEPA) as well as both drought and relative wet periods. Impacts on water use are presented through time and space, along with implications for adopting these technologies across the USA and globally.

Simulated influences of Lake Agassiz on the climate of central North America 11,000 years ago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Bartlein, P.J.; Clark, P.U.; Small, E.E.; Solomon, A.M.

2000-01-01

Eleven thousand years ago, large lakes existed in central and eastern North America along the margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The large-scale North American climate at this time has been simulated with atmospheric general circulation models, but these relatively coarse global models do not resolve potentially important features of the mesoscale circulation that arise from interactions among the atmosphere, ice sheet, and proglacial lakes. Here we present simulations of the climate of central and eastern North America 11,000 years ago with a high-resolution, regional climate model nested within a general circulation model. The simulated climate is in general agreement with that inferred from palaeoecological evidence. Our experiments indicate that through mesoscale atmospheric feedbacks, the annual delivery of moisture to the Laurentide Ice Sheet was diminished at times of a large, cold Lake Agassiz relative to periods of lower lake stands. The resulting changes in the mass balance of the ice sheet may have contributed to fluctuations of the ice margin, thus affecting the routing of fresh water to the North Atlantic Ocean. A retreating ice margin during periods of high lake level may have opened an outlet for discharge of Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic. A subsequent advance of the ice margin due to greater moisture delivery associated with a low lake level could have dammed the outlet, thereby reducing discharge to the North Atlantic. These variations may have been decisive in causing the Younger Dryas cold even.

Spin-up simulation behaviors in a climate model to build a basement of long-time simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Xue, Y.; De Sales, F.

2015-12-01

It is essential to develop start-up information when conducting long-time climate simulation. In case that the initial condition is already available from the previous simulation of same type model this does not necessary; however, if not, model needs spin-up simulation to have adjusted and balanced initial condition with the model climatology. Otherwise, a severe spin may take several years. Some of model variables such as deep soil temperature fields and temperature in ocean deep layers in initial fields would affect model's further long-time simulation due to their long residual memories. To investigate the important factor for spin-up simulation in producing an atmospheric initial condition, we had conducted two different spin-up simulations when no atmospheric condition is available from exist datasets. One simulation employed atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM), namely Global Forecast System (GFS) of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), while the other employed atmosphere-ocean coupled global circulation model (CGCM), namely Climate Forecast System (CFS) of NCEP. Both models share the atmospheric modeling part and only difference is in applying of ocean model coupling, which is conducted by Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4) of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in CFS. During a decade of spin-up simulation, prescribed sea-surface temperature (SST) fields of target year is forced to the GFS daily basis, while CFS digested only first time step ocean condition and freely iterated for the rest of the period. Both models were forced by CO2 condition and solar constant given from the target year. Our analyses of spin-up simulation results indicate that freely conducted interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere is more helpful to produce the initial condition for the target year rather than produced by fixed SST forcing. Since the GFS used prescribed forcing exactly given from the target year, this result is unexpected. The detail analysis will be discussed in this presentation.

Simulation-Based Prediction of Equivalent Continuous Noises during Construction Processes

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hong; Pei, Yun

2016-01-01

Quantitative prediction of construction noise is crucial to evaluate construction plans to help make decisions to address noise levels. Considering limitations of existing methods for measuring or predicting the construction noise and particularly the equivalent continuous noise level over a period of time, this paper presents a discrete-event simulation method for predicting the construction noise in terms of equivalent continuous level. The noise-calculating models regarding synchronization, propagation and equivalent continuous level are presented. The simulation framework for modeling the noise-affected factors and calculating the equivalent continuous noise by incorporating the noise-calculating models into simulation strategy is proposed. An application study is presented to demonstrate and justify the proposed simulation method in predicting the equivalent continuous noise during construction. The study contributes to provision of a simulation methodology to quantitatively predict the equivalent continuous noise of construction by considering the relevant uncertainties, dynamics and interactions. PMID:27529266

Geothermal reservoir simulation of hot sedimentary aquifer system using FEFLOW®

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nur Hidayat, Hardi; Gala Permana, Maximillian

2017-12-01

The study presents the simulation of hot sedimentary aquifer for geothermal utilization. Hot sedimentary aquifer (HSA) is a conduction-dominated hydrothermal play type utilizing deep aquifer, which is heated by near normal heat flow. One of the examples of HSA is Bavarian Molasse Basin in South Germany. This system typically uses doublet wells: an injection and production well. The simulation was run for 3650 days of simulation time. The technical feasibility and performance are analysed in regards to the extracted energy from this concept. Several parameters are compared to determine the model performance. Parameters such as reservoir characteristics, temperature information and well information are defined. Several assumptions are also defined to simplify the simulation process. The main results of the simulation are heat period budget or total extracted heat energy, and heat rate budget or heat production rate. Qualitative approaches for sensitivity analysis are conducted by using five parameters in which assigned lower and higher value scenarios.

Simulation-Based Prediction of Equivalent Continuous Noises during Construction Processes.

PubMed

Zhang, Hong; Pei, Yun

2016-08-12

Quantitative prediction of construction noise is crucial to evaluate construction plans to help make decisions to address noise levels. Considering limitations of existing methods for measuring or predicting the construction noise and particularly the equivalent continuous noise level over a period of time, this paper presents a discrete-event simulation method for predicting the construction noise in terms of equivalent continuous level. The noise-calculating models regarding synchronization, propagation and equivalent continuous level are presented. The simulation framework for modeling the noise-affected factors and calculating the equivalent continuous noise by incorporating the noise-calculating models into simulation strategy is proposed. An application study is presented to demonstrate and justify the proposed simulation method in predicting the equivalent continuous noise during construction. The study contributes to provision of a simulation methodology to quantitatively predict the equivalent continuous noise of construction by considering the relevant uncertainties, dynamics and interactions.

Laparoscopic skills maintenance: a randomized trial of virtual reality and box trainer simulators.

PubMed

Khan, Montaha W; Lin, Diwei; Marlow, Nicholas; Altree, Meryl; Babidge, Wendy; Field, John; Hewett, Peter; Maddern, Guy

2014-01-01

A number of simulators have been developed to teach surgical trainees the basic skills required to effectively perform laparoscopic surgery; however, consideration needs to be given to how well the skills taught by these simulators are maintained over time. This study compared the maintenance of laparoscopic skills learned using box trainer and virtual reality simulators. Participants were randomly allocated to be trained and assessed using either the Society of American Gastrointestinal Endoscopic Surgeons Fundamentals of Laparoscopic Surgery (FLS) simulator or the Surgical Science virtual reality simulator. Once participants achieved a predetermined level of proficiency, they were assessed 1, 3, and 6 months later. At each assessment, participants were given 2 practice attempts and assessed on their third attempt. The study was conducted through the Simulated Surgical Skills Program that was held at the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons, Adelaide, Australia. Overall, 26 participants (13 per group) completed the training and all follow-up assessments. There were no significant differences between simulation-trained cohorts for age, gender, training level, and the number of surgeries previously performed, observed, or assisted. Scores for the FLS-trained participants did not significantly change over the follow-up period. Scores for LapSim-trained participants significantly deteriorated at the first 2 follow-up points (1 and 3 months) (p < 0.050), but returned to be near initial levels by the final follow-up (6 months). This research showed that basic laparoscopic skills learned using the FLS simulator were maintained more consistently than those learned on the LapSim simulator. However, by the final follow-up, both simulator-trained cohorts had skill levels that were not significantly different to those at proficiency after the initial training period. Copyright © 2014 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accelerating the spin-up of the coupled carbon and nitrogen cycle model in CLM4

DOE PAGES

Fang, Yilin; Liu, Chongxuan; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

2015-03-24

The commonly adopted biogeochemistry spin-up process in an Earth system model (ESM) is to run the model for hundreds to thousands of years subject to periodic atmospheric forcing to reach dynamic steady state of the carbon–nitrogen (CN) models. A variety of approaches have been proposed to reduce the computation time of the spin-up process. Significant improvement in computational efficiency has been made recently. However, a long simulation time is still required to reach the common convergence criteria of the coupled carbon–nitrogen model. A gradient projection method was proposed and used to further reduce the computation time after examining the trendmore » of the dominant carbon pools. The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) with a carbon and nitrogen component was used in this study. From point-scale simulations, we found that the method can reduce the computation time by 20–69% compared to one of the fastest approaches in the literature. We also found that the cyclic stability of total carbon for some cases differs from that of the periodic atmospheric forcing, and some cases even showed instability. Close examination showed that one case has a carbon periodicity much longer than that of the atmospheric forcing due to the annual fire disturbance that is longer than half a year. The rest was caused by the instability of water table calculation in the hydrology model of CLM4. The instability issue is resolved after we replaced the hydrology scheme in CLM4 with a flow model for variably saturated porous media.« less

Alcohol, Drugs and Driving: Implications for Evaluating Driver Impairment

PubMed Central

Brown, Timothy; Milavetz, Gary; Murry, Daryl J.

2013-01-01

Impaired driving is a significant traffic safety problem, and alcohol and drugs taken before driving contribute substantially to this problem. With the increase in use of prescription medication and the decriminalization of some drugs, it has become increasingly important to understand the manifestation of driver impairment. Building upon previous alcohol research conducted at the National Advanced Driving Simulator (NADS), this study enrolled commercial bus drivers to evaluate the effect of triazolam on driving performance to assess difference between placebo, 0.125, and 0.25 mg doses in a randomized and double-blind design. On each of three randomized visits, subjects drove a simulator scenario that had previously been used to demonstrate effects of alcohol on driving performance. Plasma triazolam levels were obtained before the simulator drive. The protocol included participants receiving study medication and placebo over a 3-week period of time one to two weeks apart. The simulator drives used for this analysis occurred approximately 140 minutes after dosing—after the subjects had completed four bus simulator drives and neuropsychological tests over a 2-hour period of time surrounding dosing. The driving scenario contained representative situations on three types of roadways (urban, freeway, and rural) under nighttime driving conditions. Lane keeping performance (ability to drive straight in the lane) under the three doses of triazolam demonstrates that at the 0.25 mg dose, statistically significant effects on performance are observed, but no effects are found at the 0.125 mg level when testing at this time period after dosing. This differs from the effects of alcohol, which shows impairing effects at a 0.05% blood alcohol concentration (BAC) and a greater effect at 0.10% BAC. These results demonstrate the importance of understanding how different types of drugs affect driving performance in realistic driving environments. Although some compounds may have an effect that correlates linearly to dosage, that is not always the case. An understanding of these differences and how they vary across driving tasks is essential to developing a robust evaluation protocol that can accurately describe the effects of a wide variety of drugs on driver impairment. This information can be used to reduce the risk of deleterious effects of therapeutic medications while ensuring their safe and beneficial use. PMID:24406943

The transient response of ice-shelf melting to ocean change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, P.

2017-12-01

Idealised modelling studies show that the melting of ice shelves varies as a quadratic function of ocean temperature. This means that warm-water ice shelves have higher melt rates and are also more sensitive to ocean warming. However, this result is the equilibrium response, derived from a set of ice—ocean simulations subjected to a fixed ocean forcing and run until steady. This study considers instead the transient response of melting, using unsteady simulations subjected to forcing conditions that are oscillated in time with a range of periods. The results show that when the ocean forcing is varied slowly, the melt rates follow the equililbrium response. However, for rapid ocean change melting deviates from the equilibrium response in interesting ways. The residence time of water in the sub-ice cavity offers a critical timescale. When the forcing varies slowly (period of oscillation >> residence time), the cavity is fully-flushed with forcing anomalies at all stages of the cycle and melting follows the equilibrium response. When the forcing varies rapidly (period ≤ residence time), multiple cold and warm anomalies coexist in the cavity, cancelling each other in the spatial mean and thus inducing a relatively steady melt rate. This implies that all ice shelves have a maximum frequency of ocean variability that can be manifested in melting. The results also show that ice shelves forced by warm water have high melt rates, high equilibrium sensitivity, and short residence times, hence a short timescale over which the equilibrium sensitivity is manifest. The most rapid melting adjustment is induced by warm anomalies that are also saline. Thus, ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, Antarctica, are highly sensitive to ocean change.

On the spectral characteristics of the Atlantic multidecadal variability in an ensemble of multi-century simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavilia, Irene; Bellucci, Alessio; J. Athanasiadis, Panos; Gualdi, Silvio; Msadek, Rym; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan

2018-01-01

The Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is a coherent pattern of variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature field affecting several components of the climate system in the Atlantic region and the surrounding areas. The relatively short observational record severely limits our understanding of the physical mechanisms leading to the AMV. The present study shows that the spatial and temporal characteristics of the AMV, as assessed from the historical records, should also be considered as highly uncertain. Using 11 multi-century preindustrial climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database, we show that the AMV characteristics are not constant along the simulation when assessed from different 200-year-long periods to match the observed period length. An objective method is proposed to test whether the variations of the AMV characteristics are consistent with stochastic internal variability. For 7 out of the 11 models analysed, the results indicate a non-stationary behaviour for the AMV time series. However, the possibility that the non-stationarity arises from sampling errors can be excluded with high confidence only for one of the 7 models. Therefore, longer time series are needed to robustly assess the AMV characteristics. In addition to any changes imposed to the AMV by external forcings, the detected dependence on the time interval identified in most models suggests that the character of the observed AMV may undergo significant changes in the future.

Predicting geomorphic evolution through integration of numerical-model scenarios and topographic/bathymetric-survey updates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plant, N. G.; Long, J.; Dalyander, S.; Thompson, D.; Miselis, J. L.

2013-12-01

Natural resource and hazard management of barrier islands requires an understanding of geomorphic changes associated with long-term processes and storms. Uncertainty exists in understanding how long-term processes interact with the geomorphic changes caused by storms and the resulting perturbations of the long-term evolution trajectories. We use high-resolution data sets to initialize and correct high-fidelity numerical simulations of oceanographic forcing and resulting barrier island evolution. We simulate two years of observed storms to determine the individual and cumulative impacts of these events. Results are separated into cross-shore and alongshore components of sediment transport and compared with observed topographic and bathymetric changes during these time periods. The discrete island change induced by these storms is integrated with previous knowledge of long-term net alongshore sediment transport to project island evolution. The approach has been developed and tested using data collected at the Chandeleur Island chain off the coast of Louisiana (USA). The simulation time period included impacts from tropical and winter storms, as well as a human-induced perturbation associated with construction of a sand berm along the island shoreline. The predictions and observations indicated that storm and long-term processes both contribute to the migration, lowering, and disintegration of the artificial berm and natural island. Further analysis will determine the relative importance of cross-shore and alongshore sediment transport processes and the dominant time scales that drive each of these processes and subsequent island morphologic response.

Modeled Variations of Precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bromwich, David H.; Robasky, Frank M.; Keen, Richard A.; Bolzan, John F.

1993-07-01

A parameterization of the synoptic activity at 500 hPa and a simple orographic scheme are used to model the spatial and temporal variations of precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet for 1963-88 from analyzed geopotential height fields produced by the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Model coefficients are fitted to observed accumulation data, primarily from the summit area of the ice sheet. All major spatial characteristics of the observed accumulation distribution are reproduced apart from the orographic accumulation maximum over the northwestern coastal slopes. The modeled time-averaged total precipitation amount over Greenland is within the range of values determined by other investigators from surface-based observations. A realistic degree of interannual variability in precipitation is also simulated.A downward trend in simulated ice sheet precipitation over the 26 years is found. This is supported by a number of lines of evidence. It matches the accumulation trends during this period from ice cores drilled in south-central Greenland. The lower tropospheric specific humidifies at two south coastal radiosonde stations also decrease over this interval. A systematic shift away from Greenland and a decrease in activity of the dominant storm track are found for relatively low precipitation periods as compared to relatively high precipitation periods. This negative precipitation trend would mean that the Greenland Ice Sheet, depending on its 1963 mass balance state, has over the 1963-88 period either decreased its negative, or increased its positive, contribution to recently observed global sea level rise.Superimposed on the declining simulated precipitation rate for the entire ice sheet is a pronounced 3-5-yr periodicity. This is prominent in the observed and modeled precipitation time series from Summit, Greenland. This cycle shows some aspects in common with the Southern Oscillation.Some deficiencies in the NMC analysts were highlighted by this work. A large jump in simulated precipitation amounts at Summit around 1962, which is not verified by accumulation data, is inferred to be due to an artificial increase in cyclonic activity at 500 hPa associated with the NMC change from manual to numerical analyses. The activity of the storm track along the west coast of Greenland appears to be anomalously low in the NMC analyses, perhaps due to mesoscale cyclogenesis that is not resolved by the NMC analysis scheme.

Learning to love the rain in Bergen (Norway) and other lessons from a Climate Services neophyte

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobolowski, Stefan; Wakker, Joyce

2014-05-01

A question that is often asked of regional climate modelers generally, and Climate Service providers specifically, is: "What is the added-value of regional climate simulations and how can I use this information?" The answer is, unsurprisingly, not straightforward and depends greatly on what one needs to know. In particular it is important for scientist to communicate directly with the users of this information to determine what kind of information is important for them to do their jobs. This study is part of the ECLISE project (Enabling Climate Information Services for Europe) and involves a user at the municipality of Bergen's (Norway) water and drainage administration and a provider from Uni Research and the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research. The water and drain administration is responsible for communicating potential future changes in extreme precipitation, particularly short-term high-intensity rainfall, which is common in Bergen and making recommendations to the engineering department for changes in design criteria. Thus, information that enables better decision-making is crucial. This study then actually has two relevant components for climate services: 1) is a scientific exercise to evaluate the performance of high resolution regional climate simulations and their ability to reproduce high intensity short duration precipitation and 2) an exercise in communication between a provider community and user community with different concerns, mandates, methodological approaches and even vocabularies. A set of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations was run at high resolution (8km) over a large domain covering much of Scandinavia and Northern Europe. One simulation was driven by so-called "perfect" boundary conditions taken from reanalysis data (ERA-interim, 1989-2010) the second and third simulations used Norway's global climate model as boundary forcing (NorESM) and were run for a historical period (1950-2005) and a 30yr. end of the century time slice under the rcp4.5 "middle of the road" emissions scenario (2071-2100). A unique feature of the WRF modeling system is the ability to write data for selected locations at every time step, thus creating time series of very high temporal resolution which can be compared to observations. This high temporal resolution also allowed us to directly calculate intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for intense precipitation of short to long duration (5 minutes - 1 day) for a number of return periods (2-100 years) with out resorting to factors to calculate rainfall intensities at higher temporal resolutions, as is commonly done. We investigated the IDF curves using a number of parametric and non-parametric approaches. Given the relatively short time periods of the modeled data the standard Gumble approach is presented here. This is also done to maintain consistency with previous calculations by the water and drain administration. Curves were also generated from observed time series at two locations in Bergen. Both the historical, GCM-driven simulation and the ERA-interim driven simulation closely match the observed IDF curves for all return periods up to durations of about 10 minutes where WRF then fails to reproduce the very short, very high intensity events. IDF curves under future conditions were also generated and the changes were compared with the current standard approach of applying climate change-factors to observed extreme precipitation in order to account for structural errors in global and regional climate models. Our investigation suggests that high-resolution regional simulations can capture many of the topographic features and dynamical processes necessary to accurately model extreme rainfall, even in at highly local scales and over complex terrain such as Bergen, Norway. The exercise also produced many lessons for climate service providers and users alike.

Stochastic resonance in a tumor-immune system subject to bounded noises and time delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Wei; Mei, Dong-Cheng

2014-12-01

Immunotherapy is one of the most recent approaches in cancer therapy. A mathematical model of tumor-immune interaction, subject to a periodic immunotherapy treatment (imitated by a periodic signal), correlative and bounded stochastic fluctuations and time delays, is investigated by numerical simulations for its signal power amplification (SPA). Within the tailored parameter regime, the synchronous response of tumor growth to the immunotherapy, stochastic resonance (SR), versus both the noises and delays is obtained. The details are as follows (i) the peak values of SPA versus the noise intensity (A) in the proliferation term of tumor cells decrease as the frequency of periodic signal increases, i.e. an increase of the frequency restrains the SR; (ii) an increase of the amplitude of periodic signal restrains the SR versus A, but boosts up the SR versus the noise intensity B in the immune term; (iii) there is an optimum cross-correlated degree between the two bounded noises, at which the system exhibits the strongest SR versus the delay time τα(the reaction time of tumor cell population to their surrounding environment constraints); (iv) upon increasing the delay time τα, double SR versus the delay time τβ (the time taken by both the tumor antigen identification and tumor-stimulated proliferation of effectors) emerges. These results may be helpful for an immunotherapy treatment for the sufferer.

Time-dependent efficacy of longitudinal biomarker for clinical endpoint.

PubMed

Kolamunnage-Dona, Ruwanthi; Williamson, Paula R

2018-06-01

Joint modelling of longitudinal biomarker and event-time processes has gained its popularity in recent years as they yield more accurate and precise estimates. Considering this modelling framework, a new methodology for evaluating the time-dependent efficacy of a longitudinal biomarker for clinical endpoint is proposed in this article. In particular, the proposed model assesses how well longitudinally repeated measurements of a biomarker over various time periods (0,t) distinguish between individuals who developed the disease by time t and individuals who remain disease-free beyond time t. The receiver operating characteristic curve is used to provide the corresponding efficacy summaries at various t based on the association between longitudinal biomarker trajectory and risk of clinical endpoint prior to each time point. The model also allows detecting the time period over which a biomarker should be monitored for its best discriminatory value. The proposed approach is evaluated through simulation and illustrated on the motivating dataset from a prospective observational study of biomarkers to diagnose the onset of sepsis.

Photometric Variability of the mCP Star CS Vir: Evolution of the Rotation Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozuyar, D.; Sener, H. T.; Stevens, I. R.

2018-01-01

The aim of this study is to accurately calculate the rotational period of CS Vir by using STEREO observations and investigate a possible period variation of the star with the help of all accessible data. The STEREO data that cover 5-yr time interval between 2007 and 2011 are analysed by means of the Lomb-Scargle and Phase Dispersion Minimization methods. In order to obtain a reliable rotation period and its error value, computational algorithms such as the Levenberg-Marquardt and Monte Carlo simulation algorithms are applied to the data sets. Thus, the rotation period of CS Vir is improved to be 9.29572(12) d by using the 5-yr of combined data set. Also, the light elements are calculated as HJD max = 2454715.975(11) + 9d . 29572(12) × E + 9d . 78(1.13) × 10 - 8 × E 2 by means of the extremum times derived from the STEREO light curves and archives. Moreover, with this study, a period variation is revealed for the first time, and it is found that the period has lengthened by 0.66(8) s y-1, equivalent to 66 s per century. Additionally, a time-scale for a possible spin-down is calculated around τSD 106 yr. The differential rotation and magnetic braking are thought to be responsible of the mentioned rotational deceleration. It is deduced that the spin-down time-scale of the star is nearly three orders of magnitude shorter than its main-sequence lifetime (τMS 109 yr). It is, in return, suggested that the process of increase in the period might be reversible.

Severe Nuclear Accident Program (SNAP) - a real time model for accidental releases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saltbones, J.; Foss, A.; Bartnicki, J.

1996-12-31

The model: Several Nuclear Accident Program (SNAP) has been developed at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI) in Oslo to provide decision makers and Government officials with real-time tool for simulating large accidental releases of radioactivity from nuclear power plants or other sources. SNAP is developed in the Lagrangian framework in which atmospheric transport of radioactive pollutants is simulated by emitting a large number of particles from the source. The main advantage of the Lagrangian approach is a possibility of precise parameterization of advection processes, especially close to the source. SNAP can be used to predict the transport and deposition ofmore » a radioactive cloud in e future (up to 48 hours, in the present version) or to analyze the behavior of the cloud in the past. It is also possible to run the model in the mixed mode (partly analysis and partly forecast). In the routine run we assume unit (1 g s{sup -1}) emission in each of three classes. This assumption is very convenient for the main user of the model output in case of emergency: Norwegian Radiation Protection Agency. Due to linearity of the model equations, user can test different emission scenarios as a post processing task by assigning different weights to concentration and deposition fields corresponding to each of three emission classes. SNAP is fully operational and can be run by the meteorologist on duty at any time. The output from SNAP has two forms: First on the maps of Europe, or selected parts of Europe, individual particles are shown during the simulation period. Second, immediately after the simulation, concentration/deposition fields can be shown every three hours of the simulation period as isoline maps for each emission class. In addition, concentration and deposition maps, as well as some meteorological data, are stored on a public accessible disk for further processing by the model users.« less

Simulated CONUS Flash Flood Climatologies from Distributed Hydrologic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flamig, Z.; Gourley, J. J.; Vergara, H. J.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Hong, Y.

2016-12-01

This study will describe a CONUS flash flood climatology created over the period from 2002 through 2011. The MRMS reanalysis precipitation dataset was used as forcing into the Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5). This high resolution 1-sq km 5-minute dataset is ideal for simulating flash floods with a distributed hydrologic model. EF5 features multiple water balance components including SAC-SMA, CREST, and a hydrophobic model all coupled with kinematic wave routing. The EF5/SAC-SMA and EF5/CREST water balance schemes were used for the creation of dual flash flood climatologies based on the differing water balance principles. For the period from 2002 through 2011 the daily maximum streamflow, unit streamflow, and time of peak streamflow was stored along with the minimum soil moisture. These variables are used to describe the states of the soils right before a flash flood event and the peak streamflow that was simulated during the flash flood event. The results will be shown, compared and contrasted. The resulting model simulations will be verified on basins less than 1,000-sq km with USGS gauges to ensure the distributed hydrologic models are reliable. The results will also be compared spatially to Storm Data flash flood event observations to judge the degree of agreement between the simulated climatologies and observations.

Ambient Noise Green's Function Simulation of Long-Period Ground Motions for Reverse Faulting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, H.; Beroza, G. C.

2009-12-01

Long-time correlation of ambient seismic noise has been demonstrated as a useful tool for strong ground motion prediction [Prieto and Beroza, 2008]. An important advantage of ambient noise Green's functions is that they can be used for ground motion simulation without resorting to either complex 3-D velocity structure to develop theoretical Green’s functions, or aftershock records for empirical Green’s function analysis. The station-to-station approach inherent to ambient noise Green’s functions imposes some limits to its application, since they are band-limited, applied at the surface, and for a single force. We explore the applicability of this method to strong motion prediction using the 2007 Chuetsu-oki, Japan, earthquake (Mw 6.6, depth = 9 km), which excited long-period ground motions in and around the Kanto basin almost 200 km from the epicenter. We test the performance of ambient noise Green's function for long-period ground motion simulation. We use three components of F-net broadband data at KZK station, which is located near the source region, as a virtual source, and three components of six F-net stations in and around the Kanto basin to calculate the response. An advantage to applying this approach in Japan is that ambient-noise sources are active in diverse directions. The dominant period of the ambient noise for the F-net datasets is mostly 7 s over the year, and amplitudes are largest in winter. This period matches the dominant periods of the Kanto and Niigata basins. For the 9 components of the ambient noise Green’s functions, we have confirmed long-period components corresponding to Love wave and Rayleigh waves that can be used for simulation of the 2007 Chuetsu-oki earthquake. The relative amplitudes, phases, and durations of the ambient noise Green’s functions at the F-net stations in and around the Kanto basin respect to F-net KZK station are fairly well matched with those of the observed ground motions for the 2007 Chuetsu-oki earthquake.

Analysis of the precipitation and streamflow extremes in Northern Italy using high resolution reanalysis dataset Express-Hydro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvestro, Francesco; Parodi, Antonio; Campo, Lorenzo

2017-04-01

The characterization of the hydrometeorological extremes, both in terms of rainfall and streamflow, in a given region plays a key role in the environmental monitoring provided by the flood alert services. In last years meteorological simulations (both near real-time and historical reanalysis) were available at increasing spatial and temporal resolutions, making possible long-period hydrological reanalysis in which the meteo dataset is used as input in distributed hydrological models. In this work, a very high resolution meteorological reanalysis dataset, namely Express-Hydro (CIMA, ISAC-CNR, GAUSS Special Project PR45DE), was employed as input in the hydrological model Continuum in order to produce long time series of streamflows in the Liguria territory, located in the Northern part of Italy. The original dataset covers the whole Europe territory in the 1979-2008 period, at 4 km of spatial resolution and 3 hours of time resolution. Analyses in terms of comparison between the rainfall estimated by the dataset and the observations (available from the local raingauges network) were carried out, and a bias correction was also performed in order to better match the observed climatology. An extreme analysis was eventually carried on the streamflows time series obtained by the simulations, by comparing them with the results of the same hydrological model fed with the observed time series of rainfall. The results of the analysis are shown and discussed.

A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

2013-12-01

Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more frequent replenishment with that of implementation cost. We determine that a business as usual scenario, where no adaptation is implemented, would lead to an average beach recession of 12.02 meters and a maximum beach recession of 33.23 meters during the period of 2010-2100. The best adaptation option modeled was a fixed replenishment of 5 meters every 20 years leading to 4 replenishment events with an average beach recession of 2.99 meters and a maximum beach recession of 15.02 meters during the period of 2010-2100. The presented simulations explicitly address the uncertainty of future impacts due to sea level rise and storm surge and show a range of options that could be considered by a local council to meet their policy objectives. The simulation runs provide managers the ability to consider the utility of various adaptation options and the timing and costs of implementation. Such information provides an evidence-based practice to decision-making and allows policy makers to transparently make decisions based on best estimates of modeled climate change.

Floquet-Magnus theory and generic transient dynamics in periodically driven many-body quantum systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuwahara, Tomotaka; Mori, Takashi; Saito, Keiji

2016-04-01

This work explores a fundamental dynamical structure for a wide range of many-body quantum systems under periodic driving. Generically, in the thermodynamic limit, such systems are known to heat up to infinite temperature states in the long-time limit irrespective of dynamical details, which kills all the specific properties of the system. In the present study, instead of considering infinitely long-time scale, we aim to provide a general framework to understand the long but finite time behavior, namely the transient dynamics. In our analysis, we focus on the Floquet-Magnus (FM) expansion that gives a formal expression of the effective Hamiltonian on the system. Although in general the full series expansion is not convergent in the thermodynamics limit, we give a clear relationship between the FM expansion and the transient dynamics. More precisely, we rigorously show that a truncated version of the FM expansion accurately describes the exact dynamics for a certain time-scale. Our theory reveals an experimental time-scale for which non-trivial dynamical phenomena can be reliably observed. We discuss several dynamical phenomena, such as the effect of small integrability breaking, efficient numerical simulation of periodically driven systems, dynamical localization and thermalization. Especially on thermalization, we discuss a generic scenario on the prethermalization phenomenon in periodically driven systems.

Dynamic control of droplets and pockets formation in homogeneous porous media immiscible displacements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lins, T. F.; Azaiez, J.

2018-03-01

Interfacial instabilities of immiscible two-phase radial flow displacements in homogeneous porous media are analyzed for constant and time-dependent sinusoidal cyclic injection schemes. The analysis is carried out through numerical simulations based on the immersed interface and level set methods. The effects of the fluid properties and the injection flow parameters, namely, the period and the amplitude, on the formation of droplets and pockets are analyzed. It was found that larger capillary numbers or smaller viscosity ratios lead to more droplets/pockets that tend to appear earlier in time. Furthermore, the period and amplitude of the cyclic schemes were found to have a strong effect on droplets/pockets formations, and depending on their values, these can be enhanced or attenuated. In particular, the results revealed that there is a critical amplitude above which droplets and pockets formation is suppressed up to a specified time. This critical amplitude depends on the fluid properties, namely, the viscosity ratio and surface tension as well as on the period of the time-dependent scheme. The results of this study indicate that it is possible to use time-dependent cyclic schemes to control the formation and development of droplets/pockets in the flow and in particular to delay their appearance through an appropriate combination of the displacement scheme's amplitude and period.

Simulation of long-term influence from technical systems on permafrost with various short-scale and hourly operation modes in Arctic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaganova, N. A.

2017-12-01

Technogenic and climatic influences have a significant impact on the degradation of permafrost. Long-term forecasts of such changes during long-time periods have to be taken into account in the oil and gas and construction industries in view to development the Arctic and Subarctic regions. There are considered constantly operating technical systems (for example, oil and gas wells) that affect changes in permafrost, as well as the technical systems that have a short-term impact on permafrost (for example, flare systems for emergency flaring of associated gas). The second type of technical systems is rather complex for simulation, since it is required to reserve both short and long-scales in computations with variable time steps describing the complex technological processes. The main attention is paid to the simulation of long-term influence on the permafrost from the second type of the technical systems.

SR-XRD in situ monitoring of copper-IUD corrosion in simulated uterine fluid using a portable spectroelectrochemical cell.

PubMed

Grayburn, Rosie A; Dowsett, Mark G; Sabbe, Pieter-Jan; Wermeille, Didier; Anjos, Jorge Alves; Flexer, Victoria; De Keersmaecker, Michel; Wildermeersch, Dirk; Adriaens, Annemie

2016-08-01

The objective of this work is to study the initial corrosion of copper in the presence of gold when placed in simulated uterine fluid in order to better understand the evolution of active components of copper-IUDs. In order to carry out this study, a portable cell was designed to partially simulate the uterine environment and provide a way of tracking the chemical changes occurring in the samples in situ within a controlled environment over a long period of time using synchrotron spectroelectrochemistry. The dynamically forming crystalline corrosion products are determined in situ for a range of copper-gold surface ratios over the course of a 10-day experiment in the cell. It is concluded that the insoluble deposits forming over this time are not the origin of the anticonception mechanism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Search for and Study of Nearly Periodic Orbits in the Plane Problem of Three Equal-Mass Bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martynova, A. I.; Orlov, V. V.

2005-09-01

We analyze nearly periodic solutions in the plane problem of three equal-mass bodies by numerically simulating the dynamics of triple systems. We identify families of orbits in which all three points are on one straight line (syzygy) at the initial time. In this case, at fixed total energy of a triple system, the set of initial conditions is a bounded region in four-dimensional parameter space. We scan this region and identify sets of trajectories in which the coordinates and velocities of all bodies are close to their initial values at certain times (which are approximately multiples of the period). We classify the nearly periodic orbits by the structure of trajectory loops over one period. We have found the families of orbits generated by von Schubart’s stable periodic orbit revealed in the rectilinear three-body problem. We have also found families of hierarchical, nearly periodic trajectories with prograde and retrograde motions. In the orbits with prograde motions, the trajectory loops of two close bodies form looplike structures. The trajectories with retrograde motions are characterized by leafed structures. Orbits with central and axial symmetries are identified among the families found.

Simulation of particle diversity and mixing state over Greater Paris: a model-measurement inter-comparison.

PubMed

Zhu, Shupeng; Sartelet, Karine N; Healy, Robert M; Wenger, John C

2016-07-18

Air quality models are used to simulate and forecast pollutant concentrations, from continental scales to regional and urban scales. These models usually assume that particles are internally mixed, i.e. particles of the same size have the same chemical composition, which may vary in space and time. Although this assumption may be realistic for continental-scale simulations, where particles originating from different sources have undergone sufficient mixing to achieve a common chemical composition for a given model grid cell and time, it may not be valid for urban-scale simulations, where particles from different sources interact on shorter time scales. To investigate the role of the mixing state assumption on the formation of particles, a size-composition resolved aerosol model (SCRAM) was developed and coupled to the Polyphemus air quality platform. Two simulations, one with the internal mixing hypothesis and another with the external mixing hypothesis, have been carried out for the period 15 January to 11 February 2010, when the MEGAPOLI winter field measurement campaign took place in Paris. The simulated bulk concentrations of chemical species and the concentrations of individual particle classes are compared with the observations of Healy et al. (Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2013, 13, 9479-9496) for the same period. The single particle diversity and the mixing-state index are computed based on the approach developed by Riemer et al. (Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2013, 13, 11423-11439), and they are compared to the measurement-based analyses of Healy et al. (Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2014, 14, 6289-6299). The average value of the single particle diversity, which represents the average number of species within each particle, is consistent between simulation and measurement (2.91 and 2.79 respectively). Furthermore, the average value of the mixing-state index is also well represented in the simulation (69% against 59% from the measurements). The spatial distribution of the mixing-state index shows that the particles are not mixed in urban areas, while they are well mixed in rural areas. This indicates that the assumption of internal mixing traditionally used in transport chemistry models is well suited to rural areas, but this assumption is less realistic for urban areas close to emission sources.

Effect of Microgravity on Mammalian Lymphocytes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banerjee, H.; Blackshear, M.; Mahaffey, K.; Khan, A. A.; Delucas, L.

2004-01-01

The effect of microgravity on mammalian system is an important and interesting topic for scientific investigation, since NASA s objective is to send manned flights to planets like Mars and eventual human colonization. The Astronauts will be exposed to microgravity environment for a long duration of time during these flights. Our objective of research is to conduct in vitro studies for the effect of microgravity on mammalian immune system and nervous system. We did our preliminary investigations by exposing mammalian lymphocytes and astrocyte cells to a microgravity simulator cell bioreactor designed by NASA and manufactured at Synthecon, Inc. (USA).Our initial results showed no significant change in cytokine expression in these cells up to a time period of 120 hours exposure. Our future experiments will involve exposure for a longer period of time.