Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States.

PubMed

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T; Campbell, John L; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M K; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J; Shanley, James B

2017-02-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO 2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO 2 effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Bayesian-Based Novel Methodology to Generate Reliable Site Response Mapping Sensitive to Data Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, A.; Goto, H.

2017-12-01

The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake caused severe damage in many areas further inside the mainland because of site-amplification. Furukawa district in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan recorded significant spatial differences in ground motion even at sub-kilometer scales. The site responses in the damage zone far exceeded the levels in the hazard maps. A reason why the mismatch occurred is that mapping follow only the mean value at the measurement locations with no regard to the data uncertainties and thus are not always reliable. Our research objective is to develop a methodology to incorporate data uncertainties in mapping and propose a reliable map. The methodology is based on a hierarchical Bayesian modeling of normally-distributed site responses in space where the mean (μ), site-specific variance (σ2) and between-sites variance(s2) parameters are treated as unknowns with a prior distribution. The observation data is artificially created site responses with varying means and variances for 150 seismic events across 50 locations in one-dimensional space. Spatially auto-correlated random effects were added to the mean (μ) using a conditionally autoregressive (CAR) prior. The inferences on the unknown parameters are done using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods from the posterior distribution. The goal is to find reliable estimates of μ sensitive to uncertainties. During initial trials, we observed that the tau (=1/s2) parameter of CAR prior controls the μ estimation. Using a constraint, s = 1/(k×σ), five spatial models with varying k-values were created. We define reliability to be measured by the model likelihood and propose the maximum likelihood model to be highly reliable. The model with maximum likelihood was selected using a 5-fold cross-validation technique. The results show that the maximum likelihood model (μ*) follows the site-specific mean at low uncertainties and converges to the model-mean at higher uncertainties (Fig.1). This result is highly significant as it successfully incorporates the effect of data uncertainties in mapping. This novel approach can be applied to any research field using mapping techniques. The methodology is now being applied to real records from a very dense seismic network in Furukawa district, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan to generate a reliable map of the site responses.

Seismic Wave Amplification in Las Vegas: Site Characterization Measurements and Response Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louie, J. N.; Anderson, J. G.; Luke, B.; Snelson, C.; Taylor, W.; Rodgers, A.; McCallen, D.; Tkalcic, H.; Wagoner, J.

2004-12-01

As part of a multidisciplinary effort to understand seismic wave amplification in Las Vegas Valley, we conducted geotechnical and seismic refraction field studies, geologic and lithologic interpretation, and geophysical model building. Frequency-dependent amplifications (site response) and peak ground motions strongly correlate with site conditions as characterized by the models. The models include basin depths and velocities, which also correlate against ground motions. Preliminary geologic models were constructed from detailed geologic and fault mapping, logs of over 500 wells penetrating greater than 200 m depth, gravity-inversion results from the USGS, and USDA soil maps. Valley-wide refraction studies we conducted in 2002 and 2003 were inverted for constraints on basin geometry, and deep basin and basement P velocities with some 3-d control to depths of 5 km. Surface-wave studies during 2002-2004 characterized more than 75 sites within the Valley for shear velocity to depths exceeding 100 m, including all the legacy sites where nuclear-blast ground motions were recorded. The SASW and refraction-microtremor surface-surveying techniques proved to provide complementary, and coordinating Rayleigh dispersion-curve data at a dozen sites. Borehole geotechnical studies at a half-dozen sites confirmed the shear-velocity profiles that we derived from surface-wave studies. We then correlated all the geotechnical data against a detailed stratigraphic model, derived from drilling logs, to create a Valley-wide model for shallow site conditions. This well-log-based model predicts site measurements better than do models based solely on geologic or soil mapping.

Spatial games with cyclic interactions: the response of empty sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Bart; Pleimling, Michel

2015-03-01

Predator-prey models of the May-Leonard family employ empty sites in a spatial setting as an intermediate step in the reproduction process. This requirement makes the number and arrangement of empty sites important to the formation of space-time patterns. We study the density of empty sites in a stochastic predator-prey model in which the species compete in a cyclic way in two dimensions. In some cases systems of this type quickly form domains of neutral species after which all predation, and therefore, reproduction occur near the interface of competing domains. Using Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the relationship of this density of empty sites to the time-dependent domain length. We further explore the dynamics by introducing perturbations to the interaction rates of the system after which we measure the perturbed density, i.e. the response of empty sites, as the system relaxes. A dynamical scaling behavior is observed in the response of empty sites. This work is supported by the US National Science Foundation through Grant DMR-1205309.

Modeling non-linear growth responses to temperature and hydrology in wetland trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keim, R.; Allen, S. T.

2016-12-01

Growth responses of wetland trees to flooding and climate variations are difficult to model because they depend on multiple, apparently interacting factors, but are a critical link in hydrological control of wetland carbon budgets. To more generally understand tree growth to hydrological forcing, we modeled non-linear responses of tree ring growth to flooding and climate at sub-annual time steps, using Vaganov-Shashkin response functions. We calibrated the model to six baldcypress tree-ring chronologies from two hydrologically distinct sites in southern Louisiana, and tested several hypotheses of plasticity in wetlands tree responses to interacting environmental variables. The model outperformed traditional multiple linear regression. More importantly, optimized response parameters were generally similar among sites with varying hydrological conditions, suggesting generality to the functions. Model forms that included interacting responses to multiple forcing factors were more effective than were single response functions, indicating the principle of a single limiting factor is not correct in wetlands and both climatic and hydrological variables must be considered in predicting responses to hydrological or climate change.

Detecting Responses of Loblolly Pine Stand Development to Site-Preparation Intensity: A Modeling Approach

Treesearch

Mingguang Xu; Timothy B. Harrington; M. Boyd Edwards

1997-01-01

Data from an existing site preparation experiment in the Georgia Piedmont were subjected to a modeling approach to analyze effects of site preparation intensity on stand development of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) 5 to 12 years since treatment. An average stand height model that incorporated indicator variables for treatment provided an accurate...

A Technical Guide to Ground-Water Model Selection at Sites Contaminated with Radioactive Substances

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This report addresses the selection of ground-water flow and contaminant transport models and is intended to be used by hydrogeologists and geoscientists responsible for selecting transport models for use at sites containing radioactive materials.

Interpretation of psychophysics response curves using statistical physics.

PubMed

Knani, S; Khalfaoui, M; Hachicha, M A; Mathlouthi, M; Ben Lamine, A

2014-05-15

Experimental gustatory curves have been fitted for four sugars (sucrose, fructose, glucose and maltitol), using a double layer adsorption model. Three parameters of the model are fitted, namely the number of molecules per site n, the maximum response RM and the concentration at half saturation C1/2. The behaviours of these parameters are discussed in relationship to each molecule's characteristics. Starting from the double layer adsorption model, we determined (in addition) the adsorption energy of each molecule on taste receptor sites. The use of the threshold expression allowed us to gain information about the adsorption occupation rate of a receptor site which fires a minimal response at a gustatory nerve. Finally, by means of this model we could calculate the configurational entropy of the adsorption system, which can describe the order and disorder of the adsorbent surface. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fact Sheet: Environmental Pathway Models-Ground-Water Modeling in Support of Remedial Decision Making at Sites Contaminated with Radioactive Material

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This fact sheet was designed to be used by technical staff responsible for identifying and implementing flow and transport models to support cleanup decisions at hazardous and radioactive waste sites.

Water and heat transport in boreal soils: Implications for soil response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fan, Z.; Neff, J.C.; Harden, J.W.; Zhang, T.; Veldhuis, H.; Czimczik, C.I.; Winston, G.C.; O'Donnell, J. A.

2011-01-01

Soil water content strongly affects permafrost dynamics by changing the soil thermal properties. However, the movement of liquid water, which plays an important role in the heat transport of temperate soils, has been under-represented in boreal studies. Two different heat transport models with and without convective heat transport were compared to measurements of soil temperatures in four boreal sites with different stand ages and drainage classes. Overall, soil temperatures during the growing season tended to be over-estimated by 2-4??C when movement of liquid water and water vapor was not represented in the model. The role of heat transport in water has broad implications for site responses to warming and suggests reduced vulnerability of permafrost to thaw at drier sites. This result is consistent with field observations of faster thaw in response to warming in wet sites compared to drier sites over the past 30. years in Canadian boreal forests. These results highlight that representation of water flow in heat transport models is important to simulate future soil thermal or permafrost dynamics under a changing climate. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Water and heat transport in boreal soils: Implications for soil response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fan, Zhaosheng; Harden, Jennifer W.; Winston, G.C.; O'Donnell, Jonathan A.; Neff, Jason C.; Zhang, Tingjun; Veldhuis, Hugo; Czimczik, C.I.

2011-01-01

Soil water content strongly affects permafrost dynamics by changing the soil thermal properties. However, the movement of liquid water, which plays an important role in the heat transport of temperate soils, has been under-represented in boreal studies. Two different heat transport models with and without convective heat transport were compared to measurements of soil temperatures in four boreal sites with different stand ages and drainage classes. Overall, soil temperatures during the growing season tended to be over-estimated by 2–4 °C when movement of liquid water and water vapor was not represented in the model. The role of heat transport in water has broad implications for site responses to warming and suggests reduced vulnerability of permafrost to thaw at drier sites. This result is consistent with field observations of faster thaw in response to warming in wet sites compared to drier sites over the past 30 years in Canadian boreal forests. These results highlight that representation of water flow in heat transport models is important to simulate future soil thermal or permafrost dynamics under a changing climate.

SENSITIVITY OF STRUCTURAL RESPONSE TO GROUND MOTION SOURCE AND SITE PARAMETERS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safak, Erdal; Brebbia, C.A.; Cakmak, A.S.; Abdel Ghaffar, A.M.

1985-01-01

Designing structures to withstand earthquakes requires an accurate estimation of the expected ground motion. While engineers use the peak ground acceleration (PGA) to model the strong ground motion, seismologists use physical characteristics of the source and the rupture mechanism, such as fault length, stress drop, shear wave velocity, seismic moment, distance, and attenuation. This study presents a method for calculating response spectra from seismological models using random vibration theory. It then investigates the effect of various source and site parameters on peak response. Calculations are based on a nonstationary stochastic ground motion model, which can incorporate all the parameters both in frequency and time domains. The estimation of the peak response accounts for the effects of the non-stationarity, bandwidth and peak correlations of the response.

The ANSS Station Information System: A Centralized Station Metadata Repository for Populating, Managing and Distributing Seismic Station Metadata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, V. I.; Yu, E.; Acharya, P.; Jaramillo, J.; Chowdhury, F.

2015-12-01

Maintaining and archiving accurate site metadata is critical for seismic network operations. The Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Station Information System (SIS) is a repository of seismic network field equipment, equipment response, and other site information. Currently, there are 187 different sensor models and 114 data-logger models in SIS. SIS has a web-based user interface that allows network operators to enter information about seismic equipment and assign response parameters to it. It allows users to log entries for sites, equipment, and data streams. Users can also track when equipment is installed, updated, and/or removed from sites. When seismic equipment configurations change for a site, SIS computes the overall gain of a data channel by combining the response parameters of the underlying hardware components. Users can then distribute this metadata in standardized formats such as FDSN StationXML or dataless SEED. One powerful advantage of SIS is that existing data in the repository can be leveraged: e.g., new instruments can be assigned response parameters from the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) Nominal Response Library (NRL), or from a similar instrument already in the inventory, thereby reducing the amount of time needed to determine parameters when new equipment (or models) are introduced into a network. SIS is also useful for managing field equipment that does not produce seismic data (eg power systems, telemetry devices or GPS receivers) and gives the network operator a comprehensive view of site field work. SIS allows users to generate field logs to document activities and inventory at sites. Thus, operators can also use SIS reporting capabilities to improve planning and maintenance of the network. Queries such as how many sensors of a certain model are installed or what pieces of equipment have active problem reports are just a few examples of the type of information that is available to SIS users.

Equilibrium muscle cross-bridge behavior. Theoretical considerations.

PubMed Central

Schoenberg, M

1985-01-01

We have developed a model for the equilibrium attachment and detachment of myosin cross-bridges to actin that takes into account the possibility that a given cross-bridge can bind to one of a number of actin monomers, as seems likely, rather than to a site on only a single actin monomer, as is often assumed. The behavior of this multiple site model in response to constant velocity, as well as instantaneous stretches, was studied and the influence of system parameters on the force response explored. It was found that in the multiple site model the detachment rate constant has considerably greater influence on the mechanical response than the attachment rate constant. It is shown that one can obtain information about the detachment rate constants either by examining the relationship between the apparent stiffness and duration of stretch for constant velocity stretches or by examining the force-decay rate constants following an instantaneous stretch. The main effect of the attachment rate constant is to scale the mechanical response by influencing the number of attached cross-bridges. The significance of the modeling for the interpretation of experimental results is discussed. PMID:4041539

Site Response for Micro-Zonation from Small Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gospe, T. B.; Hutchings, L.; Liou, I. Y. W.; Jarpe, S.

2017-12-01

We have developed a method to obtain absolute geologic site response from small earthquakes using inexpensive instrumentation that enables us to perform micro-zonation inexpensively and in a short amount of time. We record small earthquakes (M<3) at several sites simultaneously and perform inversion to obtain actual absolute site response. The key to the inversion is that recordings at several stations from an earthquake have the same moment, source corner frequency and whole path Q effect on their spectra, but have individual Kappa and spectral amplification as a function of frequency. When these source and path effects are removed and corrections for different propagation distances are performed, we are left with actual site response. We develop site response functions from 0.5 to 25.0 Hz. Cities situated near active and dangerous faults experience small earthquakes on a regular basis. We typically record at least ten small earthquakes over time to stabilize the uncertainly. Of course, dynamic soil modeling is necessary to scale our linear site response to non-linear regime for large earthquakes. Our instrumentation is very inexpensive and virtually disposable, and can be placed throughout a city at a high density. Operation only requires turning on a switch, and data processing is automated to minimize human labor. We have installed a test network and implemented our full methodology in upper Napa Valley, California where there is variable geology and nearby rock outcrop sites, and a supply of small earthquakes from the nearby Geysers development area. We test several methbods of obtaining site response. We found that rock sites have a site response of their own and distort the site response estimate based upon spectral ratios with soil sites. Also, rock sites may not even be available near all sites throughout a city. Further, H/V site response estimates from earthquakes are marginally better, but vertical motion also has a site response of its own. H/V spectral ratios of noise don't provide accurate site response estimates either. Vs30 only provides one amplification number and doesn't account for the variable three-dimensional structure beneath sites. We conclude that absolute site response obtained directly from earthquakes is the best, and possibly, the only way to get accurate site response estimates.

Measurement of Pressure Responses in a Physical Model of a Human Head with High Shape Fidelity Based on Ct/mri Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyazaki, Yusuke; Tachiya, Hiroshi; Anata, Kenji; Hojo, Akihiro

This study discusses a head injury mechanism in case of a human head subjected to impact, from results of impact experiments by using a physical model of a human head with high-shape fidelity. The physical model was constructed by using rapid prototyping technology from the three-dimensional CAD data, which obtained from CT/MRI images of a subject's head. As results of the experiments, positive pressure responses occurred at the impacted site, whereas negative pressure responses occurred at opposite the impacted site. Moreover, the absolute maximum value of pressure occurring at the frontal region of the intracranial space of the head model resulted in same or higher than that at the occipital site in each case that the impact force was imposed on frontal or occipital region. This result has not been showed in other study using simple shape physical models. And, the result corresponds with clinical evidences that brain contusion mainly occurs at the frontal part in each impact direction. Thus, physical model with accurate skull shape is needed to clarify the mechanism of brain contusion.

Modeling aspen responses to climatic warming and insect defoliation in western Canada

Treesearch

E. H. Ted Hogg

2001-01-01

Effects of climate change at three aspen sites in Saskatchewan were explored using a climate-driven model that includes insect defoliation. A simulated warming of 4-5 °C caused complete mortality due to drought at all three sites. A simulated warming of 2-2.5 °C caused complete mortality of aspen at the parkland site, while aspen growth at two boreal sites showed...

How Do Various Maize Crop Models Vary in Their Responses to Climate Change Factors?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Grassini, Patricio; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Adam, Myriam;

How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

PubMed

Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C; Adam, Myriam; Baron, Christian; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Boogaard, Hendrik; Conijn, Sjaak; Corbeels, Marc; Deryng, Delphine; De Sanctis, Giacomo; Gayler, Sebastian; Grassini, Patricio; Hatfield, Jerry; Hoek, Steven; Izaurralde, Cesar; Jongschaap, Raymond; Kemanian, Armen R; Kersebaum, K Christian; Kim, Soo-Hyung; Kumar, Naresh S; Makowski, David; Müller, Christoph; Nendel, Claas; Priesack, Eckart; Pravia, Maria Virginia; Sau, Federico; Shcherbak, Iurii; Tao, Fulu; Teixeira, Edmar; Timlin, Dennis; Waha, Katharina

2014-07-01

Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2 ], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per °C. Doubling [CO2 ] from 360 to 720 μmol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2 ] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2 ] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing Ecosystem Drought Response in CLM 4.5 Using Site-Level Flux and Carbon-Isotope Measurements: Results From a Pacific Northwest Coniferous Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duarte, H.; Raczka, B. M.; Koven, C. D.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Lin, J. C.; Bowling, D. R.; Ehleringer, J. R.

2015-12-01

The frequency, extent, and severity of droughts are expected to increase in the western United States as climate changes occur. The combination of warmer temperature, larger vapor pressure deficit, reduced snowfall and snow pack, earlier snow melt, and extended growing seasons is expected to lead to an intensification of summer droughts, with a direct impact on ecosystem productivity and therefore on the carbon budget of the region. In this scenario, an accurate representation of ecosystem drought response in land models becomes fundamental, but the task is challenging, especially in regards to stomatal response to drought. In this study we used the most recent release of the Community Land Model (CLM 4.5), which now includes photosynthetic carbon isotope discrimination and revised photosynthesis and hydrology schemes, among an extensive list of updates. We evaluated the model's performance at a coniferous forest site in the Pacific northwest (Wind River AmeriFlux Site), characterized by a climate that has a strong winter precipitation component followed by a summer drought. We ran the model in offline mode (i.e., decoupled from an atmospheric model), forced by observed meteorological data, and used site observations (e.g., surface fluxes, biomass values, and carbon isotope data) to assess the model. Previous field observations indicated a significant negative correlation between soil water content and the carbon isotope ratio of ecosystem respiration (δ13CR), suggesting that δ13CR was closely related to the photosynthetic discrimination against 13CO2 as controlled by stomatal conductance. We used these observations and latent-heat flux measurements to assess the modeled stomatal conductance values and their responses to extended summer drought. We first present the model results, followed by a discussion of potential CLM model improvements in stomatal conductance responses and in the representation of soil water stress (parameter βt) that would more precisely incorporate features that would allow the model to correctly simulate field observations.

Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Reilly, A. M.

2017-12-01

Sensitivity analysis traditionally has been applied to assessing model response to perturbations in model parameters, where the parameters are those model input variables adjusted during calibration. Unlike physics-based models where parameters represent real phenomena, the equivalent of parameters for machine-learning models are simply mathematical "knobs" that are automatically adjusted during training/testing/verification procedures. Thus the challenge of extracting knowledge of hydrologic system functionality from machine-learning models lies in their very nature, leading to the label "black box." Sensitivity analysis of the forcing-response behavior of machine-learning models, however, can provide understanding of how the physical phenomena represented by model inputs affect the physical phenomena represented by model outputs.As part of a previous study, hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to simulate the observed behavior of hydrologic response contained in multidecadal datasets of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow. Model inputs used moving window averages (MWA) to represent various frequencies and frequency-band components of time series of rainfall and groundwater use. Using these forcing time series, the MWA-ANN models were trained to predict time series of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at 51 sites in central Florida, USA. A time series of sensitivities for each MWA-ANN model was produced by perturbing forcing time-series and computing the change in response time-series per unit change in perturbation. Variations in forcing-response sensitivities are evident between types (lake, groundwater level, or spring), spatially (among sites of the same type), and temporally. Two generally common characteristics among sites are more uniform sensitivities to rainfall over time and notable increases in sensitivities to groundwater usage during significant drought periods.

Hillslope threshold response to rainfall: (2) development and use of a macroscale model

Treesearch

Chris B. Graham; Jeffrey J. McDonnell

2010-01-01

Hillslope hydrological response to precipitation is extremely complex and poorly modeled. One possible approach for reducing the complexity of hillslope response and its mathematical parameterization is to look for macroscale hydrological behavior. Hillslope threshold response to storm precipitation is one such macroscale behavior observed at field sites across the...

Uncertainty in Vs30-based site response

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Eric M.; Wald, David J.

2016-01-01

Methods that account for site response range in complexity from simple linear categorical adjustment factors to sophisticated nonlinear constitutive models. Seismic‐hazard analysis usually relies on ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs); within this framework site response is modeled statistically with simplified site parameters that include the time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity to 30 m (VS30) and basin depth parameters. Because VS30 is not known in most locations, it must be interpolated or inferred through secondary information such as geology or topography. In this article, we analyze a subset of stations for which VS30 has been measured to address effects of VS30 proxies on the uncertainty in the ground motions as modeled by GMPEs. The stations we analyze also include multiple recordings, which allow us to compute the repeatable site effects (or empirical amplification factors [EAFs]) from the ground motions. Although all methods exhibit similar bias, the proxy methods only reduce the ground‐motion standard deviations at long periods when compared to GMPEs without a site term, whereas measured VS30 values reduce the standard deviations at all periods. The standard deviation of the ground motions are much lower when the EAFs are used, indicating that future refinements of the site term in GMPEs have the potential to substantially reduce the overall uncertainty in the prediction of ground motions by GMPEs.

A Hierarchical Analysis of Tree Growth and Environmental Drivers Across Eastern US Temperate Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantooth, J.; Dietze, M.

2014-12-01

Improving predictions of how forests in the eastern United States will respond to future global change requires a better understanding of the drivers of variability in tree growth rates. Current inventory data lack the temporal resolution to characterize interannual variability, while existing growth records lack the extent required to assess spatial scales of variability. Therefore, we established a network of forest inventory plots across ten sites across the eastern US, and measured growth in adult trees using increment cores. Sites were chosen to maximize climate space explored, while within sites, plots were spread across primary environmental gradients to explore landscape-level variability in growth. Using the annual growth record available from tree cores, we explored the responses of trees to multiple environmental covariates over multiple spatial and temporal scales. We hypothesized that within and across sites growth rates vary among species, and that intraspecific growth rates increase with temperature along a species' range. We also hypothesized that trees show synchrony in growth responses to landscape-scale climatic changes. Initial analyses of growth increments indicate that across sites, trees with intermediate shade tolerance, e.g. Red Oak (Quercus rubra), tend to have the highest growth rates. At the site level, there is evidence for synchrony in response to large-scale climatic events (e.g. prolonged drought and above average temperatures). However, growth responses to climate at the landscape scale have yet to be detected. Our current analysis utilizes hierarchical Bayesian state-space modeling to focus on growth responses of adult trees to environmental covariates at multiple spatial and temporal scales. This predictive model of tree growth currently incorporates observed effects at the individual, plot, site, and landscape scale. Current analysis using this model shows a potential slowing of growth in the past decade for two sites in the northeastern US (Harvard Forest and Bartlett Experimental Forest), however more work is required to determine the robustness of this trend. Finally, these observations are being incorporated into ecosystem models using the Brown Dog informatics tools and the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) data assimilation workflow.

Partially Testing a Process Model for Understanding Victim Responses to an Anticipated Worksite Closure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blau, Gary

2007-01-01

This study partially tested a recent process model for understanding victim responses to worksite/function closure (W/FC) proposed by Blau [Blau, G. (2006). A process model for understanding victim responses to worksite/function closure. "Human Resource Management Review," 16, 12-28], in a pharmaceutical manufacturing site. Central to the model…

Towards predicting coral calcification responses to ocean acidification: A combined modeling and experimental approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mollica, N. R.; Guo, W.; Cohen, A. L.; Foster, G. L.; Barkley, H.

2016-02-01

Experiments show that ocean acidification is detrimental to coral calcification. Nevertheless, coral sensitivities to OA vary and the mechanism(s) underlying these variable responses are not fully understood. One hypothesis is that ocean acidification affects the ability of coral's to regulate the pH of fluid at the site of calcification. We developed a numerical model of coral calcification that simulates corals' pH regulation based on physiochemical principles and predicts the rate of calcification [1]. Here we apply this model to Palauan corals, and seek to test the model's efficacy by comparing the predicted coral calcification responses with experimental measurements. Four coral cores were collected from two sites of different pH (7.84 and 8.04 respectively). Their bulk annual calcification rates, quantified from average density and extension rate measurements, vary from .83 to 1.39 g cm-2 year-1 for the low pH site and from 0.75 to 1.21 g cm-2 year-1for the high pH site. The higher bulk calcification rates observed in corals from the low pH site contrasts the expected general decrease in calcification in low pH seawater, and differs from our model prediction. We suspect this apparent discrepancy arises because fast-calcifying corals in low pH water are able to modulate the pH of fluid at the site of calcification. We test this hypothesis using boron isotope measurements from each coral. In addition, a more accurate measurement of instantaneous calcification, considering the number of corallites per measured area and the exact surface area of each polyp's 3-dimensional calcification site is applied. [1] Guo, W. (2014). AGU Fall Meeting, Abstract B41B-0033.

Controls on seasonal patterns of maximum ecosystem carbon uptake and canopy-scale photosynthetic light response: contributions from both temperature and photoperiod.

PubMed

Stoy, Paul C; Trowbridge, Amy M; Bauerle, William L

2014-02-01

Most models of photosynthetic activity assume that temperature is the dominant control over physiological processes. Recent studies have found, however, that photoperiod is a better descriptor than temperature of the seasonal variability of photosynthetic physiology at the leaf scale. Incorporating photoperiodic control into global models consequently improves their representation of the seasonality and magnitude of atmospheric CO2 concentration. The role of photoperiod versus that of temperature in controlling the seasonal variability of photosynthetic function at the canopy scale remains unexplored. We quantified the seasonal variability of ecosystem-level light response curves using nearly 400 site years of eddy covariance data from over eighty Free Fair-Use sites in the FLUXNET database. Model parameters describing maximum canopy CO2 uptake and the initial slope of the light response curve peaked after peak temperature in about 2/3 of site years examined, emphasizing the important role of temperature in controlling seasonal photosynthetic function. Akaike's Information Criterion analyses indicated that photoperiod should be included in models of seasonal parameter variability in over 90% of the site years investigated here, demonstrating that photoperiod also plays an important role in controlling seasonal photosynthetic function. We also performed a Granger causality analysis on both gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and GEP normalized by photosynthetic photon flux density (GEP n ). While photoperiod Granger-caused GEP and GEP n in 99 and 92% of all site years, respectively, air temperature Granger-caused GEP in a mere 32% of site years but Granger-caused GEP n in 81% of all site years. Results demonstrate that incorporating photoperiod may be a logical step toward improving models of ecosystem carbon uptake, but not at the expense of including enzyme kinetic-based temperature constraints on canopy-scale photosynthesis.

Bayesian Revision of Residual Detection Power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLoach, Richard

2013-01-01

This paper addresses some issues with quality assessment and quality assurance in response surface modeling experiments executed in wind tunnels. The role of data volume on quality assurance for response surface models is reviewed. Specific wind tunnel response surface modeling experiments are considered for which apparent discrepancies exist between fit quality expectations based on implemented quality assurance tactics, and the actual fit quality achieved in those experiments. These discrepancies are resolved by using Bayesian inference to account for certain imperfections in the assessment methodology. Estimates of the fraction of out-of-tolerance model predictions based on traditional frequentist methods are revised to account for uncertainty in the residual assessment process. The number of sites in the design space for which residuals are out of tolerance is seen to exceed the number of sites where the model actually fails to fit the data. A method is presented to estimate how much of the design space in inadequately modeled by low-order polynomial approximations to the true but unknown underlying response function.

A case study of alternative site response explanatory variables in Parkfield, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, E.M.; Baise, L.G.; Kayen, R.E.; Morgan, E.C.; Kaklamanos, J.

2011-01-01

The combination of densely-spaced strong-motion stations in Parkfield, California, and spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) profiles provides an ideal dataset for assessing the accuracy of different site response explanatory variables. We judge accuracy in terms of spatial coverage and correlation with observations. The performance of the alternative models is period-dependent, but generally we observe that: (1) where a profile is available, the square-root-of-impedance method outperforms VS30 (average S-wave velocity to 30 m depth), and (2) where a profile is unavailable, the topographic-slope method outperforms surficial geology. The fundamental site frequency is a valuable site response explanatory variable, though less valuable than VS30. However, given the expense and difficulty of obtaining reliable estimates of VS30 and the relative ease with which the fundamental site frequency can be computed, the fundamental site frequency may prove to be a valuable site response explanatory variable for many applications. ?? 2011 ASCE.

A Design Analysis Model for Developing World Wide Web Sites.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ma, Yan

2002-01-01

Examines the relationship between and among designers, text, and users of the Galter Health Sciences Library Web site at Northwestern University by applying reader-response criticism. Highlights include Web site design; comparison of designers' intentions with the actual organization of knowledge on the Web site; and compares designer's intentions…

Innovative Developmental Education Programs: A Texas Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Booth, Eric A.; Capraro, Mary Margaret; Capraro, Robert M.; Chaudhuri, Nandita; Dyer, James; Marchbanks, Miner P., III

2014-01-01

This article provides insights from a 2-year, cross-site evaluation of state funded developmental education sites and serves as a focus article for response by those sites. Receiving grants from the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (THECB), nine sites (5 community colleges and 4 universities) implemented innovative developmental education…

Controls on SOC across space and time: Models with different acclimation schemes make similar spatial predictions but divergent warming predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abramoff, R. Z.; Torn, M. S.; Georgiou, K.; Tang, J.; Riley, W. J.

2017-12-01

Researchers use spatial gradients to estimate long-term ecosystem responses to perturbations. This approach is commonly applied to soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks which change slowly but store the majority of terrestrial carbon. Climate warming may reduce SOC stocks if higher temperatures increase decomposition rates. Yet, it is uncertain how vulnerable SOC is to warming, and whether the same factors - such as organo-mineral associations, climate, or plant inputs - determine SOC stocks across space and time. In order to test the "space for time" concept, we developed two versions of the Substrate-Mineral-Microbe Soil (SuMMS) model - one with microbial temperature acclimation and one without - to analyze observed SOC stocks at 24 sites spanning a wide range of soil types and climate. Both model predictions of SOC were strongly correlated with observations (R2 > 0.9), because mineral sorption capacity was the dominant control over steady-state SOC stock as determined by a Random Forest model. However, the two model versions made fundamentally different predictions of the change in SOC following 5°C soil warming from 2016 to 2100 because the initial mean annual temperature (MAT) was the dominant control over the SOC response. The model with microbial acclimation predicted that SOC would decline 10% at all sites along the transect, while the model with no acclimation predicted large surface SOC losses at high latitude sites and SOC gains at low latitude sites where microbial exoenzymes were already at or near their temperature optimum. These simulations suggest that gradient studies cannot be used to infer site-level responses to warming, because the dominant controls on SOC at steady state (i.e., mineral sorption capacity) are different than the dominant controls on the SOC response to a warming perturbation (i.e., initial MAT, capacity for acclimation).

Modelling secondary organic aerosol in the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redington, A. L.; Derwent, R. G.

2013-01-01

The Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model, NAME, has been used to model the formation and transport of anthropogenic and biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) over North-West Europe in 2008. The model has been tested against daily organic carbon measurements at Harwell, a rural site in southern UK, where it was able to represent adequately the observed values in summer, with some under-prediction in winter. The model has been used to look at the contribution of SOA to total measured PM10 at four selected UK sites. The site with the greatest contribution (32%) of SOA to PM10 was Auchencorth, a rural site in Scotland and least (9%) at London Bloomsbury. The biogenic SOA (BSOA) dominated over the anthropogenic SOA (ASOA) in the UK and showed a strong seasonal cycle peaking in the summer. There was also a slight summer increase in ASOA. The model has been employed to provide source attribution between UK sources and sources in the rest of Europe. The contribution from Europe was generally small but varied considerably due to meteorology. The UK component showed a seasonal cycle, peaking in the summer months. On an annual basis, considering the four measurement sites, the percentage of SOA arriving from outside the UK was least at Auchencorth (9.8%) and most at London (28.4%). Total modelled SOA had a maximum contribution of 2-3 μg m-3 as a monthly average. (It should be noted that in addition there will be a small contribution from background SOA to these figures.) Emission sensitivity studies revealed that the response of ASOA was highly non-linear, showing both positive and negative responses to a 30% reduction in all man-made NOx sources and the response was greater than 1:1 to a 30% reduction in all man-made VOC sources. BSOA showed only a small negative response to a 30% NOx reduction and no change to a 30% VOC reduction.

Advanced Atmospheric Modeling for Emergency Response.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fast, Jerome D.; O'Steen, B. Lance; Addis, Robert P.

1995-03-01

Atmospheric transport and diffusion models are an important part of emergency response systems for industrial facilities that have the potential to release significant quantities of toxic or radioactive material into the atmosphere. An advanced atmospheric transport and diffusion modeling system for emergency response and environmental applications, based upon a three-dimensional mesoscale model, has been developed for the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site so that complex, time-dependent flow fields not explicitly measured can be routinely simulated. To overcome some of the current computational demands of mesoscale models, two operational procedures for the advanced atmospheric transport and diffusion modeling system are described including 1) a semiprognostic calculation to produce high-resolution wind fields for local pollutant transport in the vicinity of the Savannah River Site and 2) a fully prognostic calculation to produce a regional wind field encompassing the southeastern United States for larger-scale pollutant problems. Local and regional observations and large-scale model output are used by the mesoscale model for the initial conditions, lateral boundary conditions, and four-dimensional data assimilation procedure. This paper describes the current status of the modeling system and presents two case studies demonstrating the capabilities of both modes of operation. While the results from the case studies shown in this paper are preliminary and certainly not definitive, they do suggest that the mesoscale model has the potential for improving the prognostic capabilities of atmospheric modeling for emergency response at the Savannah River Site. Long-term model evaluation will be required to determine under what conditions significant forecast errors exist.

Abaqus Simulations of Rock Response to Dynamic Loading

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steedman, David W.; Coblentz, David

The LANL Geodynamics Team has been applying Abaqus modeling to achieve increasingly complex simulations. Advancements in Abaqus model building and simulation tools allows this progress. We use Lab-developed constitutive models, the fully coupled CEL Abaqus and general contact to simulate response of realistic sites to explosively driven shock.

Nonlinear site response in medium magnitude earthquakes near Parkfield, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rubinstein, Justin L.

2011-01-01

Careful analysis of strong-motion recordings of 13 medium magnitude earthquakes (3.7 ≤ M ≤ 6.5) in the Parkfield, California, area shows that very modest levels of shaking (approximately 3.5% of the acceleration of gravity) can produce observable changes in site response. Specifically, I observe a drop and subsequent recovery of the resonant frequency at sites that are part of the USGS Parkfield dense seismograph array (UPSAR) and Turkey Flat array. While further work is necessary to fully eliminate other models, given that these frequency shifts correlate with the strength of shaking at the Turkey Flat array and only appear for the strongest shaking levels at UPSAR, the most plausible explanation for them is that they are a result of nonlinear site response. Assuming this to be true, the observation of nonlinear site response in small (M M 6.5 San Simeon earthquake and the 2004 M 6 Parkfield earthquake).

Soil respiration response to climate change in Pacific Northwest prairies is mediated by a regional Mediterranean climate gradient.

PubMed

Reynolds, Lorien L; Johnson, Bart R; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Bridgham, Scott D

2015-01-01

Soil respiration is expected to increase with rising global temperatures but the degree of response may depend on soil moisture and other local factors. Experimental climate change studies from single sites cannot discern whether an observed response is site-dependent or generalizable. To deconvolve site-specific vs. regional climatic controls, we examined soil respiration for 18 months along a 520 km climate gradient in three Pacific Northwest, USA prairies that represents increasingly severe Mediterranean conditions from north to south. At each site we implemented a fully factorial combination of 2.5-3 °C warming and 20% added precipitation intensity. The response of soil respiration to warming was driven primarily by the latitudinal climate gradient and not site-specific factors. Warming increased respiration at all sites during months when soil moisture was not limiting. However, these gains were offset by reductions in respiration during seasonal transitions and summer drought due to lengthened periods of soil moisture limitation. The degree of this offset varied along the north-south climate gradient such that in 2011 warming increased cumulative annual soil respiration 28.6% in the northern site, 13.5% in the central site, and not at all in the southern site. Precipitation also stimulated soil respiration more frequently in the south, consistent with an increased duration of moisture limitation. The best predictors of soil respiration in nonlinear models were the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), antecedent soil moisture, and temperature but these models provided biased results at high and low soil respiration. NDVI was an effective integrator of climate and site differences in plant productivity in terms of their combined effects on soil respiration. Our results suggest that soil moisture limitation can offset the effect of warming on soil respiration, and that greater growing-season moisture limitation would constrain cumulative annual responses to warming. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of Permafrost and Seasonally Frozen Ground on the Seismic Response of Transportation Infrastructure Sites

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-02-01

This interdisciplinary project combined seismic data recorded at bridge sites with computer models to identify how highway bridges built on permanently and seasonally frozen ground behave during an earthquake. Two sites one in Anchorage and one in...

Preparing Site Supervisors of Counselor Education Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bjornestad, Andrea; Johnson, Veronica; Hittner, Jo; Paulson, Kristine

2014-01-01

Counselor educators maintain a responsibility for providing site supervisors with professional development opportunities (Council for Accreditation of Counseling and Related Educational Programs. [2009]). The goal of this study was to evaluate a model for providing preparation to site supervisors. Significant differences were observed from pretest…

Application of a Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model to Predict OATP1B1-Related Variability in Pharmacodynamics of Rosuvastatin

PubMed Central

Rose, R H; Neuhoff, S; Abduljalil, K; Chetty, M; Rostami-Hodjegan, A; Jamei, M

2014-01-01

Typically, pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models use plasma concentration as the input that drives the PD model. However, interindividual variability in uptake transporter activity can lead to variable drug concentrations in plasma without discernible impact on the effect site organ concentration. A physiologically based PK/PD model for rosuvastatin was developed that linked the predicted liver concentration to the PD response model. The model was then applied to predict the effect of genotype-dependent uptake by the organic anion-transporting polypeptide 1B1 (OATP1B1) transporter on the pharmacological response. The area under the plasma concentration–time curve (AUC0–∞) was increased by 63 and 111% for the c.521TC and c.521CC genotypes vs. the c.521TT genotype, while the PD response remained relatively unchanged (3.1 and 5.8% reduction). Using local concentration at the effect site to drive the PD response enabled us to explain the observed disconnect between the effect of the OATP1B1 c521T>C polymorphism on rosuvastatin plasma concentration and the cholesterol synthesis response. PMID:25006781

Nonlinear Site Response Validation Studies Using KIK-net Strong Motion Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asimaki, D.; Shi, J.

2014-12-01

Earthquake simulations are nowadays producing realistic ground motion time-series in the range of engineering design applications. Of particular significance to engineers are simulations of near-field motions and large magnitude events, for which observations are scarce. With the engineering community slowly adopting the use of simulated ground motions, site response models need to be re-evaluated in terms of their capabilities and limitations to 'translate' the simulated time-series from rock surface output to structural analyses input. In this talk, we evaluate three one-dimensional site response models: linear viscoelastic, equivalent linear and nonlinear. We evaluate the performance of the models by comparing predictions to observations at 30 downhole stations of the Japanese network KIK-Net that have recorded several strong events, including the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Velocity profiles are used as the only input to all models, while additional parameters such as quality factor, density and nonlinear dynamic soil properties are estimated from empirical correlations. We quantify the differences of ground surface predictions and observations in terms of both seismological and engineering intensity measures, including bias ratios of peak ground response and visual comparisons of elastic spectra, and inelastic to elastic deformation ratio for multiple ductility ratios. We observe that PGV/Vs,30 — as measure of strain— is a better predictor of site nonlinearity than PGA, and that incremental nonlinear analyses are necessary to produce reliable estimates of high-frequency ground motion components at soft sites. We finally discuss the implications of our findings on the parameterization of nonlinear amplification factors in GMPEs, and on the extensive use of equivalent linear analyses in probabilistic seismic hazard procedures.

The Effects of Recreation Experience, Environmental Attitude, and Biospheric Value on the Environmentally Responsible Behavior of Nature-Based Tourists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tsung Hung; Jan, Fen-Hauh

2015-07-01

The scientific understanding of the recreation experience and the environmentally responsible behavior of nature-based tourists is limited. This study examines the relationship among the recreation experience, environmental attitude, biospheric value, and the general and site-specific environmentally responsible behavior of nature-based tourists in Taomi, Liuqiu Island, and Aowanda and Najenshan in Taiwan. A total of 1342 usable questionnaires were collected for this study. The empirical results indicate that the recreation experience influences biospheric value and environmental attitude; subsequently, it then indirectly influences the general and site-specific environmentally responsible behavior of nature-based tourists. Our theoretical behavioral model elucidates previously proposed but unexamined behavioral models among nature-based tourists, and it offers a theoretical framework for researchers, decision makers, managers, and tourists in the field of nature-based tourism. We conclude that when an individual participates in nature-based tourism as described here, these recreation experiences strengthen their environmental attitude and biospheric value, and consequently increase their engagement in both general and site-specific environmentally responsible behaviors.

The effects of recreation experience, environmental attitude, and biospheric value on the environmentally responsible behavior of nature-based tourists.

PubMed

Lee, Tsung Hung; Jan, Fen-Hauh

2015-07-01

The scientific understanding of the recreation experience and the environmentally responsible behavior of nature-based tourists is limited. This study examines the relationship among the recreation experience, environmental attitude, biospheric value, and the general and site-specific environmentally responsible behavior of nature-based tourists in Taomi, Liuqiu Island, and Aowanda and Najenshan in Taiwan. A total of 1342 usable questionnaires were collected for this study. The empirical results indicate that the recreation experience influences biospheric value and environmental attitude; subsequently, it then indirectly influences the general and site-specific environmentally responsible behavior of nature-based tourists. Our theoretical behavioral model elucidates previously proposed but unexamined behavioral models among nature-based tourists, and it offers a theoretical framework for researchers, decision makers, managers, and tourists in the field of nature-based tourism. We conclude that when an individual participates in nature-based tourism as described here, these recreation experiences strengthen their environmental attitude and biospheric value, and consequently increase their engagement in both general and site-specific environmentally responsible behaviors.

Warfarin resistance associated with genetic polymorphism of VKORC1: linking clinical response to molecular mechanism using computational modeling.

PubMed

Lewis, Benjamin C; Nair, Pramod C; Heran, Subash S; Somogyi, Andrew A; Bowden, Jeffrey J; Doogue, Matthew P; Miners, John O

2016-01-01

The variable response to warfarin treatment often has a genetic basis. A protein homology model of human vitamin K epoxide reductase, subunit 1 (VKORC1), was generated to elucidate the mechanism of warfarin resistance observed in a patient with the Val66Met mutation. The VKORC1 homology model comprises four transmembrane (TM) helical domains and a half helical lid domain. Cys132 and Cys135, located in the N-terminal end of TM-4, are linked through a disulfide bond. Two distinct binding sites for warfarin were identified. Site-1, which binds vitamin K epoxide (KO) in a catalytically favorable orientation, shows higher affinity for S-warfarin compared with R-warfarin. Site-2, positioned in the domain occupied by the hydrophobic tail of KO, binds both warfarin enantiomers with similar affinity. Displacement of Arg37 occurs in the Val66Met mutant, blocking access of warfarin (but not KO) to Site-1, consistent with clinical observation of warfarin resistance.

TThe role of nitrogen availability in land-atmosphere interactions: a systematic evaluation of carbon-nitrogen coupling in a global land surface model using plot-level nitrogen fertilization experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, R. Q.; Goodale, C. L.; Bonan, G. B.; Mahowald, N. M.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.

2010-12-01

Recent research from global land surface models emphasizes the important role of nitrogen cycling on global climate, via its control on the terrestrial carbon balance. Despite the implications of nitrogen cycling on global climate predictions, the research community has not performed a systematic evaluation of nitrogen cycling in global models. Here, we present such an evaluation for one global land model, CLM-CN. In the evaluation we simulated 45 plot-scale nitrogen-fertilization experiments distributed across 33 temperate and boreal forest sites. Model predictions were evaluated against field observations by comparing the vegetation and soil carbon responses to the additional nitrogen. Aggregated across all experiments, the model predicted a larger vegetation carbon response and a smaller soil carbon response than observed; the responses partially offset each other, leading to a slightly larger total ecosystem carbon response than observed. However, the model-observation agreement improved for vegetation carbon when the sites with observed negative carbon responses to nitrogen were excluded, which may be because the model lacks mechanisms whereby nitrogen additions increase tree mortality. Among experiments, younger forests and boreal forests’ vegetation carbon responses were less than predicted and mature forests (> 40 years old) were greater than predicted. Specific to the CLM-CN, this study used a systematic evaluation to identify key areas to focus model development, especially soil carbon- nitrogen interactions and boreal forest nitrogen cycling. Applicable to the modeling community, this study demonstrates a standardized protocol for comparing carbon-nitrogen interactions among global land models.

An airport community noise-impact assessment model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deloach, R.

1980-01-01

A computer model was developed to assess the noise impact of an airport on the community which it serves. Assessments are made using the Fractional Impact Method by which a single number describes the community aircraft noise environment in terms of exposed population and multiple event noise level. The model is comprised of three elements: a conventional noise footprint model, a site specific population distribution model, and a dose response transfer function. The footprint model provides the noise distribution for a given aircraft operating scenario. This is combined with the site specific population distribution obtained from a national census data base to yield the number of residents exposed to a given level of noise. The dose response relationship relates noise exposure levels to the percentage of individuals highly annoyed by those levels.

Validation on wheat response to irrigation, CO2 and nitrogen fertilization in the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Y.

2016-12-01

Wheat is a staple crop for global food security, and is the dominant vegetation cover for a significant fraction of earth's croplands. As such, it plays an important role in soil carbon balance, and land-atmosphere interactions in these key regions. Understanding whether the Community Land Model (CLM) appropriate response to elevated CO2 and different levels of nitrogen fertilization and irrigation is a crucial question. We participated the AgMIP-wheat project and run 72 simulations at Maricopa spring wheat FACE sites and five winter wheat sites in North America forcing with site observed meteorology data. After calibration on the phenology, carbon allocation, and soil hydrology parameters, wheat in CLM45 has reasonable response to irrigation and elevated CO2. However, wheat in CLM45 has no response to low or high N fertilization because the low amount of N fertilization is sufficient for wheat growth in CLM45. We plan to further extend the same simulations for CLM5 (will release in Fall 2016), which has substantial improvements on soil hydrology (improved soil evaporation and plant hydraulic parameterization) and nitrogen dynamics (flexible leaf CN ratio and Vcmax25, plant pays for carbon to get nitrogen). We will evaluate the uncertainties of wheat response to nitrogen fertilization, irrigation, CO2 due to model improvements.

Regionally Adaptable Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) from Empirical Models of Fourier and Duration of Ground Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bora, Sanjay; Scherbaum, Frank; Kuehn, Nicolas; Stafford, Peter; Edwards, Benjamin

2016-04-01

The current practice of deriving empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) involves using ground motions recorded at multiple sites. However, in applications like site-specific (e.g., critical facility) hazard ground motions obtained from the GMPEs are need to be adjusted/corrected to a particular site/site-condition under investigation. This study presents a complete framework for developing a response spectral GMPE, within which the issue of adjustment of ground motions is addressed in a manner consistent with the linear system framework. The present approach is a two-step process in which the first step consists of deriving two separate empirical models, one for Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) and the other for a random vibration theory (RVT) optimized duration (Drvto) of ground motion. In the second step the two models are combined within the RVT framework to obtain full response spectral amplitudes. Additionally, the framework also involves a stochastic model based extrapolation of individual Fourier spectra to extend the useable frequency limit of the empirically derived FAS model. The stochastic model parameters were determined by inverting the Fourier spectral data using an approach similar to the one as described in Edwards and Faeh (2013). Comparison of median predicted response spectra from present approach with those from other regional GMPEs indicates that the present approach can also be used as a stand-alone model. The dataset used for the presented analysis is a subset of the recently compiled database RESORCE-2012 across Europe, the Middle East and the Mediterranean region.

The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

PubMed Central

Swindles, Graeme T.; Morris, Paul J.; Mullan, Donal; Watson, Elizabeth J.; Turner, T. Edward; Roland, Thomas P.; Amesbury, Matthew J.; Kokfelt, Ulla; Schoning, Kristian; Pratte, Steve; Gallego-Sala, Angela; Charman, Dan J.; Sanderson, Nicole; Garneau, Michelle; Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Woulds, Clare; Holden, Joseph; Parry, Lauren; Galloway, Jennifer M.

2015-01-01

Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed in response to climatic warming, culminating in collapse of the peat domes. Commonalities between study sites lead us to propose a five-phase model for permafrost peatland response to climatic warming. This model suggests a shared ecohydrological trajectory towards a common end point: inundated Arctic fen. Although carbon accumulation is rapid in such sites, saturated soil conditions are likely to cause elevated methane emissions that have implications for climate-feedback mechanisms. PMID:26647837

Virtual Institute of Microbial Stress and Survival: Deduction of Stress Response Pathways in Metal and Radionuclide Reducing Microorganisms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2004-04-17

The projects application goals are to: (1) To understand bacterial stress-response to the unique stressors in metal/radionuclide contamination sites; (2) To turn this understanding into a quantitative, data-driven model for exploring policies for natural and biostimulatory bioremediation; (3) To implement proposed policies in the field and compare results to model predictions; and (4) Close the experimental/computation cycle by using discrepancies between models and predictions to drive new measurements and construction of new models. The projects science goals are to: (1) Compare physiological and molecular response of three target microorganisms to environmental perturbation; (2) Deduce the underlying regulatory pathways that controlmore » these responses through analysis of phenotype, functional genomic, and molecular interaction data; (3) Use differences in the cellular responses among the target organisms to understand niche specific adaptations of the stress and metal reduction pathways; (4) From this analysis derive an understanding of the mechanisms of pathway evolution in the environment; and (5) Ultimately, derive dynamical models for the control of these pathways to predict how natural stimulation can optimize growth and metal reduction efficiency at field sites.« less

Tropical forest response to elevated CO2: Model-experiment integration at the AmazonFACE site.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frankenberg, C.; Berry, J. A.; Guanter, L.; Joiner, J.

2014-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere's response to current and future elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2) is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of the C cycle, climate and ecosystem functioning. In particular, the sensitivity of tropical rainforest ecosystems to eCO­2 is largely unknown even though the importance of tropical forests for biodiversity, carbon storage and regional and global climate feedbacks is unambiguously recognized. The AmazonFACE (Free-Air Carbon Enrichment) project will be the first ecosystem scale eCO2 experiment undertaken in the tropics, as well as the first to be undertaken in a mature forest. AmazonFACE provides the opportunity to integrate ecosystem modeling with experimental observations right from the beginning of the experiment, harboring a two-way exchange, i.e. models provide hypotheses to be tested, and observations deliver the crucial data to test and improve ecosystem models. We present preliminary exploration of observed and expected process responses to eCO2 at the AmazonFACE site from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, highlighting opportunities and pitfalls for model integration of tropical FACE experiments. The preliminary analysis provides baseline hypotheses, which are to be further developed with a follow-up multiple model inter-comparison. The analysis builds on the recently undertaken FACE-MDS (Model-Data Synthesis) project, which was applied to two temperate FACE experiments and exceeds the traditional focus on comparing modeled end-target output. The approach has proven successful in identifying well (and less well) represented processes in models, which are separated for six clusters also here; (1) Carbon fluxes, (2) Carbon pools, (3) Energy balance, (4) Hydrology, (5) Nutrient cycling, and (6) Population dynamics. Simulation performance of observed conditions at the AmazonFACE site (a.o. from Manaus K34 eddy flux tower) will highlight process-based model deficiencies, and aid the separation of uncertainties arising from general ecosystem responses and those responses related to eCO2.

Tropical forest response to elevated CO2: Model-experiment integration at the AmazonFACE site.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischer, K.

2015-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere's response to current and future elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2) is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of the C cycle, climate and ecosystem functioning. In particular, the sensitivity of tropical rainforest ecosystems to eCO­2 is largely unknown even though the importance of tropical forests for biodiversity, carbon storage and regional and global climate feedbacks is unambiguously recognized. The AmazonFACE (Free-Air Carbon Enrichment) project will be the first ecosystem scale eCO2 experiment undertaken in the tropics, as well as the first to be undertaken in a mature forest. AmazonFACE provides the opportunity to integrate ecosystem modeling with experimental observations right from the beginning of the experiment, harboring a two-way exchange, i.e. models provide hypotheses to be tested, and observations deliver the crucial data to test and improve ecosystem models. We present preliminary exploration of observed and expected process responses to eCO2 at the AmazonFACE site from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, highlighting opportunities and pitfalls for model integration of tropical FACE experiments. The preliminary analysis provides baseline hypotheses, which are to be further developed with a follow-up multiple model inter-comparison. The analysis builds on the recently undertaken FACE-MDS (Model-Data Synthesis) project, which was applied to two temperate FACE experiments and exceeds the traditional focus on comparing modeled end-target output. The approach has proven successful in identifying well (and less well) represented processes in models, which are separated for six clusters also here; (1) Carbon fluxes, (2) Carbon pools, (3) Energy balance, (4) Hydrology, (5) Nutrient cycling, and (6) Population dynamics. Simulation performance of observed conditions at the AmazonFACE site (a.o. from Manaus K34 eddy flux tower) will highlight process-based model deficiencies, and aid the separation of uncertainties arising from general ecosystem responses and those responses related to eCO2.

[Evaluation study on integration effect of taohong siwu tang in treating primary dysmenorrhea].

PubMed

Liu, Li; Duan, Jin-Ao; Hua, Yong-Qing; Liu, Pei; Shang, Er-Xin; Tang, Yu-Ping; Su, Shu-Lan

2012-11-01

To evaluate the effect of Taohong Siwu Tang and its fractions on hotplate-induced pain in mice, acetic acid-induced writhing response, dysmenorrheal model and isolated uterine contraction in vitro in mice, and discuss material basis of effect sites. The samples of fractions were prepared by macroporous adsorptive resins (TH-1-TH-15). In the whole animal experiment, the hotplate-induced pain mice model was established to observe the effect of the samples on pain threshold in mice; the acetic acid-induced writhing response mice model was built to observe the effect of the samples on the writhing response in mice; the mice dysmenorrheal model was established to observe the effect of the samples on the writhing response, and calcium ion (Ca2+) and nitric oxide (NO) levels in uterine tissue of mice. In the isolated uterus contraction experiment, the oxytocin-induced isolated uterus contraction mice model was established to observe the effect of the samples on the isolated uterus contraction index. HPLC-DAD method was adopted for the content determination of effect sites. According to the evaluation of the integration geological effect, beside TH-2 and TH-4, other three active fractions (TH-9, TH-10 and TH-11) extracted from Taohong Siwu Tang are the main effect sites. Their chemical components were analyzed and identified as monoterpene glycosides, phthalides, organic acids, etc. The effect sites of Taohong Siwu Tang on dysmenorrhea are TH-9, TH-10 and TH-11, which are 30% - 50% active fractions obtained from water-soluble small-molecular fractions by gradient elution using ethanol through macroporous absorption resin. Compared with TH-10 and TH-11, TH-9 shows stronger effect, which may be related to the type and content of chemical components it contains.

Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fronzek, Stefan; Pirttioja, Nina; Carter, Timothy R.; Bindi, Marco; Hoffmann, Holger; Palosuo, Taru; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Tao, Fulu; Trnka, Miroslav; Acutis, Marco;

1987 Oak Ridge model conference: Proceedings: Volume 2, Environmental protection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1987-01-01

See the abstract for Volume I for general information on the conference. Topics discussed in Volume II include data management techiques for environmental protection efforts, the use of models in environmental auditing, in emergency plans, chemical accident emergency response, risk assessment, monitoring of waste sites, air and water monitoring of waste sites, and in training programs. (TEM)

Reducing the uncertainty of parameters controlling seasonal carbon and water fluxes in Chinese forests and its implication for simulated climate sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yue; Yang, Hui; Wang, Tao; MacBean, Natasha; Bacour, Cédric; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yiping; Zhou, Guangsheng; Piao, Shilong

2017-08-01

Reducing parameter uncertainty of process-based terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) is one of the primary targets for accurately estimating carbon budgets and predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. However, parameters in TEMs are rarely constrained by observations from Chinese forest ecosystems, which are important carbon sink over the northern hemispheric land. In this study, eddy covariance data from six forest sites in China are used to optimize parameters of the ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamics EcosystEms TEM. The model-data assimilation through parameter optimization largely reduces the prior model errors and improves the simulated seasonal cycle and summer diurnal cycle of net ecosystem exchange, latent heat fluxes, and gross primary production and ecosystem respiration. Climate change experiments based on the optimized model are deployed to indicate that forest net primary production (NPP) is suppressed in response to warming in the southern China but stimulated in the northeastern China. Altered precipitation has an asymmetric impact on forest NPP at sites in water-limited regions, with the optimization-induced reduction in response of NPP to precipitation decline being as large as 61% at a deciduous broadleaf forest site. We find that seasonal optimization alters forest carbon cycle responses to environmental change, with the parameter optimization consistently reducing the simulated positive response of heterotrophic respiration to warming. Evaluations from independent observations suggest that improving model structure still matters most for long-term carbon stock and its changes, in particular, nutrient- and age-related changes of photosynthetic rates, carbon allocation, and tree mortality.

Simulatd Nitrogen Cycling Response to Elevated CO2 in Pinus taeda and Mixed Dediduous Forests

Treesearch

D.W. Johnson

1999-01-01

Interactions between elevated CO2 and N cycling were explored with a nutrient cycling model (NuCM, Johnson et al. 1993, 1995) for a Pinus tuedu L. site at Duke University North Carolina, and a mixed deciduous site at Walker Branch, Tennessee. The simulations tested whether N limitation would prevent growth increases in response to elevated CO...

Transient Response in a Dendritic Neuron Model for Current Injected at One Branch

PubMed Central

Rinzel, John; Rall, Wilfrid

1974-01-01

Mathematical expressions are obtained for the response function corresponding to an instantaneous pulse of current injected to a single dendritic branch in a branched dendritic neuron model. The theoretical model assumes passive membrane properties and the equivalent cylinder constraint on branch diameters. The response function when used in a convolution formula enables one to compute the voltage transient at any specified point in the dendritic tree for an arbitrary current injection at a given input location. A particular numerical example, for a brief current injection at a branch terminal, illustrates the attenuation and delay characteristics of the depolarization peak as it spreads throughout the neuron model. In contrast to the severe attenuation of voltage transients from branch input sites to the soma, the fraction of total input charge actually delivered to the soma and other trees is calculated to be about one-half. This fraction is independent of the input time course. Other numerical examples, which compare a branch terminal input site with a soma input site, demonstrate that, for a given transient current injection, the peak depolarization is not proportional to the input resistance at the injection site and, for a given synaptic conductance transient, the effective synaptic driving potential can be significantly reduced, resulting in less synaptic current flow and charge, for a branch input site. Also, for the synaptic case, the two inputs are compared on the basis of the excitatory post-synaptic potential (EPSP) seen at the soma and the total charge delivered to the soma. PMID:4424185

Modeling forest C and N allocation responses to free-air CO2 enrichment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luus, Kristina; De Kauwe, Martin; Walker, Anthony; Werner, Christian; Iversen, Colleen; McCarthy, Heather; Medlyn, Belinda; Norby, Richard; Oren, Ram; Zak, Donald; Zaehle, Sönke

2015-04-01

Vegetation allocation patterns and soil-vegetation partitioning of C and N are predicted to change in response to rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2. These allocation responses to rising CO2 have been examined at the ecosystem level through through free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments, and their global implications for the timing of progressive N limitation (PNL) and C sequestration have been predicted for ~100 years using a variety of ecosystem models. However, recent FACE model-data syntheses studies [1,2,3] have indicated that ecosystem models do not capture the 5-10 year site-level ecosystem allocation responses to elevated CO2. This may be due in part to the missing representation of the rhizosphere interactions between plants and soil biota in models. Ecosystem allocation of C and N is altered by interactions between soil and vegetation through the priming effect: as plant N availability diminishes, plants respond physiologically by altering their tissue allocation strategies so as to increase rates of root growth and rhizodeposition. In response, either soil organic material begins to accumulate, which hastens the onset of PNL, or soil microbes start to decompose C more rapidly, resulting in increased N availability for plant uptake, which delays PNL. In this study, a straightforward approach for representing rhizosphere interactions in ecosystem models was developed through which C and N allocation to roots and rhizodeposition responds dynamically to elevated CO2 conditions, modifying soil decomposition rates without pre-specification of the direction in which soil C and N accumulation should shift in response to elevated CO2. This approach was implemented in a variety of ecosystem models ranging from stand (G'DAY), to land surface (CLM 4.5, O-CN), to dynamic global vegetation (LPJ-GUESS) models. Comparisons against data from three forest FACE sites (Duke, Oak Ridge & Rhinelander) indicated that representing rhizosphere interactions allowed models to more reliably capture responses of ecosystem C and N allocation to free-air CO2 enrichment because they were able to simulate the priming effect. Insights were therefore gained into between-site differences observed in forest FACE experiments, and the underlying physiological and biogeochemical mechanisms determining ecosystem C and N allocation responses to elevated CO2. References 1. De Kauwe, M. G., et al. (2014), Where does the carbon go? A model-data intercomparison of vegetation carbon allocation and turnover processes at two temperate forest free-air CO2 enrichment sites, New Phytologist, 203, 883-899. 2. Walker, A. P., et al. (2014), Comprehensive ecosystem model-data synthesis using multiple data sets at two temperate forest free-air CO2 enrichment experiments: Model performance at ambient CO2 concentration, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 119, 937-964. 3. Zaehle, S., et al. (2014), Evaluation of 11 terrestrial carbon-nitrogen cycle models against observations from two temperate Free-Air CO2 Enrichment studies, New Phytologist, 202 (3), 803-822.

Integrating Near-Real Time Hydrologic-Response Monitoring and Modeling for Improved Assessments of Slope Stability Along the Coastal Bluffs of the Puget Sound Rail Corridor, Washington State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirus, B. B.; Baum, R. L.; Stark, B.; Smith, J. B.; Michel, A.

2015-12-01

Previous USGS research on landslide potential in hillside areas and coastal bluffs around Puget Sound, WA, has identified rainfall thresholds and antecedent moisture conditions that correlate with heightened probability of shallow landslides. However, physically based assessments of temporal and spatial variability in landslide potential require improved quantitative characterization of the hydrologic controls on landslide initiation in heterogeneous geologic materials. Here we present preliminary steps towards integrating monitoring of hydrologic response with physically based numerical modeling to inform the development of a landslide warning system for a railway corridor along the eastern shore of Puget Sound. We instrumented two sites along the steep coastal bluffs - one active landslide and one currently stable slope with the potential for failure - to monitor rainfall, soil-moisture, and pore-pressure dynamics in near-real time. We applied a distributed model of variably saturated subsurface flow for each site, with heterogeneous hydraulic-property distributions based on our detailed site characterization of the surficial colluvium and the underlying glacial-lacustrine deposits that form the bluffs. We calibrated the model with observed volumetric water content and matric potential time series, then used simulated pore pressures from the calibrated model to calculate the suction stress and the corresponding distribution of the factor of safety against landsliding with the infinite slope approximation. Although the utility of the model is limited by uncertainty in the deeper groundwater flow system, the continuous simulation of near-surface hydrologic response can help to quantify the temporal variations in the potential for shallow slope failures at the two sites. Thus the integration of near-real time monitoring and physically based modeling contributes a useful tool towards mitigating hazards along the Puget Sound railway corridor.

Spiral ganglion cell site of excitation I: comparison of scala tympani and intrameatal electrode responses.

PubMed

Cartee, Lianne A; Miller, Charles A; van den Honert, Chris

2006-05-01

To determine the site of excitation on the spiral ganglion cell in response to electrical stimulation similar to that from a cochlear implant, single-fiber responses to electrical stimuli delivered by an electrode positioned in the scala tympani were compared to responses from stimuli delivered by an electrode placed in the internal auditory meatus. The response to intrameatal stimulation provided a control set of data with a known excitation site, the central axon of the spiral ganglion cell. For both intrameatal and scala tympani stimuli, the responses to single-pulse, summation, and refractory stimulus protocols were recorded. The data demonstrated that summation pulses, as opposed to single pulses, are likely to give the most insightful measures for determination of the site of excitation. Single-fiber summation data for both scala tympani and intrameatally stimulated fibers were analyzed with a clustering algorithm. Combining cluster analysis and additional numerical modeling data, it was hypothesized that the scala tympani responses corresponded to central excitation, peripheral excitation adjacent to the cell body, and peripheral excitation at a site distant from the cell body. Fibers stimulated by an intrameatal electrode demonstrated the greatest range of jitter measurements indicating that greater fiber independence may be achieved with intrameatal stimulation.

Modelling study of soil C, N and pH response to air pollution and climate change using European LTER site observations.

PubMed

Holmberg, Maria; Aherne, Julian; Austnes, Kari; Beloica, Jelena; De Marco, Alessandra; Dirnböck, Thomas; Fornasier, Maria Francesca; Goergen, Klaus; Futter, Martyn; Lindroos, Antti-Jussi; Krám, Pavel; Neirynck, Johan; Nieminen, Tiina Maileena; Pecka, Tomasz; Posch, Maximilian; Pröll, Gisela; Rowe, Ed C; Scheuschner, Thomas; Schlutow, Angela; Valinia, Salar; Forsius, Martin

2018-05-31

Current climate warming is expected to continue in coming decades, whereas high N deposition may stabilize, in contrast to the clear decrease in S deposition. These pressures have distinctive regional patterns and their resulting impact on soil conditions is modified by local site characteristics. We have applied the VSD+ soil dynamic model to study impacts of deposition and climate change on soil properties, using MetHyd and GrowUp as pre-processors to provide input to VSD+. The single-layer soil model VSD+ accounts for processes of organic C and N turnover, as well as charge and mass balances of elements, cation exchange and base cation weathering. We calibrated VSD+ at 26 ecosystem study sites throughout Europe using observed conditions, and simulated key soil properties: soil solution pH (pH), soil base saturation (BS) and soil organic carbon and nitrogen ratio (C:N) under projected deposition of N and S, and climate warming until 2100. The sites are forested, located in the Mediterranean, forested alpine, Atlantic, continental and boreal regions. They represent the long-term ecological research (LTER) Europe network, including sites of the ICP Forests and ICP Integrated Monitoring (IM) programmes under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), providing high quality long-term data on ecosystem response. Simulated future soil conditions improved under projected decrease in deposition and current climate conditions: higher pH, BS and C:N at 21, 16 and 12 of the sites, respectively. When climate change was included in the scenario analysis, the variability of the results increased. Climate warming resulted in higher simulated pH in most cases, and higher BS and C:N in roughly half of the cases. Especially the increase in C:N was more marked with climate warming. The study illustrates the value of LTER sites for applying models to predict soil responses to multiple environmental changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-level stressor analysis from the DNA/biochemical level to community levels in an urban stream and integrative health response (IHR) assessments.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Hoon; Kim, Joon Ha; Oh, Hee-Mock; An, Kwang-Guk

2013-01-01

The objectives of this study were to identify multi-level stressors at the DNA/biochemical level to the community level in fish in an urban stream and to develop an integrative health response (IHR) model for ecological health diagnosis. A pristine control site (S (c) ) and an impacted site (S (i) ) were selected from among seven pre-screened sites studied over seven years. Various chemical analyses indicated that nutrient enrichment (Nitrogen, Phosphorus) and organic pollution were significantly greater (t > 8.783, p < 0.01) at the S (i) site compared to the S (c) site. Single-cell gel electrophoresis (comet assays) of DNA-level impairment indicated significantly (t = 5.678, p < 0.01) greater tail intensity, expressed as % tail-DNA, at the S (i) site and genotoxic responses were detected in the downstream reach. Ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) assays, as a physiological bioindicator, were 2.8-fold higher (p < 0.05, NK-test after ANOVA) at the S (i) site. Tissue analysis using a necropsy-based health assessment index (NHAI) showed distinct internal organ disorders in three tissues, i.e., liver, kidney, and gill, at the S (i) site. Population-level analysis using the sentinel species Zacco platypus showed that the regression coefficient (b) was 3.012 for the S (i) site and 2.915 for the S (c) site, indicating population skewness in the downstream reach. Community-level health was impaired at the S (i) site based on an index of biological integrity (IBI), and physical habitat modifications were identified by a qualitative habitat evaluation index (QHEI). Overall, the model values for the integrative health response (IHR), developed using the star plot approach, were 3.22 (80.5%) at the S (c) site and 0.74 (18.5%) at the S (i) site, indicating that, overall, ecological health impairments were evident in the urban reach. Our study was based on multi-level approaches using biological organization and the results suggest that there is a pivotal point of linkage between mechanistic understanding and real ecological consequences of environmental stressors.

A simple hypothesis of how leaf and canopy-level transpiration and assimilation respond to elevated CO2 reveals distinct response patterns between disturbed and undisturbed vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donohue, Randall J.; Roderick, Michael L.; McVicar, Tim R.; Yang, Yuting

2017-01-01

Elevated CO2 increases leaf-level water-use efficiency (ω) almost universally. How canopy-level transpiration and assimilation fluxes respond to increased ω is currently unclear. We present a simple, resource-availability-based hypothesis of how equilibrium (or mature) leaf and canopy transpiration and assimilation rates, along with leaf area index (L), respond to elevated CO2. We quantify this hypothesis in the form of a model and test it against observations from eight Free Air CO2 Enrichment sites that span a wide range of resource availabilities. Sites were grouped according to vegetation disturbance status. We find the model adequately accounts for the responses of undisturbed vegetation (R2 = 0.73, 11% error) but cannot account for the responses of disturbed vegetation (R2 = 0.47, 17% error). At undisturbed sites, the responses of L and of leaf and canopy transpiration vary predictably (7% error) with resource availability, whereas the leaf assimilation response is less predictable. In contrast, the L and transpiration flux responses at the disturbed (mostly forested) sites are highly variable and are not strongly related to resource availability. Initial analyses suggest that they are more strongly related to regrowth age than to resource availability. We conclude that (i) our CO2 response hypothesis is valid for capturing the responses of undisturbed vegetation only, (ii) that the responses of disturbed vegetation are distinctly different from undisturbed vegetation, and (iii) that these differences need to be accounted for when predicting the effects of elevated CO2 on land surface processes generally, and on leaf area and water fluxes in particular.

Variability of site response in Seattle, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, S.; Carver, D.; Cranswick, E.; Frankel, A.

2000-01-01

Ground motion from local earthquakes and the SHIPS (Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound) experiment is used to estimate site amplification factors in Seattle. Earthquake and SHIPS records are analyzed by two methods: (1) spectral ratios relative to a nearby site on Tertiary sandstone, and (2) a source/site spectral inversion technique. Our results show site amplifications between 3 and 4 below 5 Hz for West Seattle relative to Tertiary rock. These values are approximately 30% lower than amplification in the Duwamish Valley on artificial fill, but significantly higher than the calculated range of 2 to 2.5 below 5 Hz for the till-covered hills east of downtown Seattle. Although spectral amplitudes are only 30% higher in the Duwamish Valley compared to West Seattle, the duration of long-period ground motion is significantly greater on the artificial fill sites. Using a three-dimensional displacement response spectrum measure that includes the effects of ground-motion duration, values in the Duwamish Valley are 2 to 3 times greater than West Seattle. These calculations and estimates of site response as a function of receiver azimuth point out the importance of trapped surface-wave energy within the shallow, low-velocity, sedimentary layers of the Duwamish Valley. One-dimensional velocity models yield spectral amplification factors close to the observations for till sites east of downtown Seattle and the Duwamish Valley, but underpredict amplifications by a factor of 2 in West Seattle. A two-dimensional finite-difference model does equally well for the till sites and the Duwamish Valley and also yields duration estimates consistent with the observations for the Duwamish Valley. The two-dimensional model, however, still underpredicts amplification in West Seattle by up to a factor of 2. This discrepancy is attributed to 3D effects, including basin-edge-induced surface waves and basin-geometry-focusing effects, caused by the proximity of the Seattle thrust fault and the sediment-filled Seattle basin.

Induction Speed Is Not a Determinant of Propofol Pharmacodynamics

PubMed Central

Doufas, Anthony G.; Bakhshandeh, Maryam; Bjorksten, Andrew R.; Shafer, Steven L.; Sessler, Daniel I.

2005-01-01

Summary We used individual pharmacodynamic modeling to demonstrate that different sedation endpoints occur at the same effect site propofol concentration, independent of the infusion rate of propofol. Background Evidence suggests that the rate at which they are infused may influence plasma-effect site equilibration of intravenous anesthetics. We used 5 different rates of propofol administration to test the hypothesis that different sedation endpoints occur at the same effect site propofol concentration, independent of the infusion rate. We concurrently evaluated the automated responsiveness monitor (ARM) against other sedation measures and the propofol effect site concentration. Methods With Human Studies Committee approval, 18 healthy volunteers received 5 consecutive target-controlled propofol infusions. During each infusion the effect site concentration was increased by a rate of 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, or 0.9 μg·ml−1·min−1. Bispectral index and ARM were recorded at frequent intervals. The times of syringe drop and loss and recovery of responsiveness were noted. Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling was performed using NONMEM. Results Once the correct rate of plasma-effect site equilibration (ke0) was determined for each individual (ke0 = 0.17 min−1, time-to-peak effect = 2.7 min), the effect site concentrations associated with each clinical measure were not affected by the rate of rise of effect site propofol concentration. ARM correlated with all clinical measures of drug effect. Subjects invariably stopped responding to ARM at lower effect site propofol concentrations than those associated with loss of responsiveness. Conclusions Population-based pharmacokinetics, combined with real-time electroencephalographic measures of drug effect, may provide a means to individualize pharmacodynamic modeling during target-controlled drug delivery. ARM appears useful as an automated measure of sedation and may provide the basis for automated monitoring and titration of sedation for a propofol delivery system. PMID:15505446

Induction of strong anti-HIV cellular immunity by a combination of Clostridium perfringens expressing HIV gag and virus like particles.

PubMed

Pegu, Poonam; Helmus, Ruth; Gupta, Phalguni; Tarwater, Patrick; Caruso, Lori; Shen, Chengli; Ross, Ted; Chen, Yue

2011-12-01

The lower gastrointestinal tract is a major mucosal site of HIV entry and initial infection. Thus, the induction of strong cellular immune responses at this mucosal site will be an important feature of an effective HIV vaccine. We have used a novel prime-boost vaccination approach to induce immune responses at mucosal sites. Orally delivered recombinant Clostridium perfringens expressing HIV-1 gag (Cp-Gag) was evaluated for induction of HIV-1 Gag specific T cell responses in a prime-boost model with intranasal inoculation of HIV-1 virus like particles (VLP). HIV-1 specific cellular immune responses in both the effector (Lamina propria) and inductive sites (Peyer's patches) of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract were significantly higher in mice immunized using Cp-Gag and VLPs in a prime-boost approach compared to mice immunized with either Cp-Gag or VLPs alone. Such cellular immune response was found to be mediated by both CD8(+) and CD4(+) T cells. Such a strong mucosal immune response could be very useful in developing a mucosal vaccine against HIV-1.

Fire rehabilitation decisions at landscape scales: utilizing state-and-transition models developed through disturbance response grouping of ecological sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recognizing the utility of ecological sites and the associated state-and-transition model (STM) for decision support, the Bureau of Land Management in Nevada partnered with Nevada NRCS and the University of Nevada, Reno (UNR) in 2009 with the goal of creating a team that could (1) expedite developme...

Histatin 5 binds to Porphyromonas gingivalis hemagglutinin B (HagB) and alters HagB-induced chemokine responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgwardt, Derek S.; Martin, Aaron D.; van Hemert, Jonathan R.; Yang, Jianyi; Fischer, Carol L.; Recker, Erica N.; Nair, Prashant R.; Vidva, Robinson; Chandrashekaraiah, Shwetha; Progulske-Fox, Ann; Drake, David; Cavanaugh, Joseph E.; Vali, Shireen; Zhang, Yang; Brogden, Kim A.

2014-01-01

Histatins are human salivary gland peptides with anti-microbial and anti-inflammatory activities. In this study, we hypothesized that histatin 5 binds to Porphyromonas gingivalis hemagglutinin B (HagB) and attenuates HagB-induced chemokine responses in human myeloid dendritic cells. Histatin 5 bound to immobilized HagB in a surface plasmon resonance (SPR) spectroscopy-based biosensor system. SPR spectroscopy kinetic and equilibrium analyses, protein microarray studies, and I-TASSER structural modeling studies all demonstrated two histatin 5 binding sites on HagB. One site had a stronger affinity with a KD1 of 1.9 μM and one site had a weaker affinity with a KD2 of 60.0 μM. Binding has biological implications and predictive modeling studies and exposure of dendritic cells both demonstrated that 20.0 μM histatin 5 attenuated (p < 0.05) 0.02 μM HagB-induced CCL3/MIP-1α, CCL4/MIP-1β, and TNFα responses. Thus histatin 5 is capable of attenuating chemokine responses, which may help control oral inflammation.

A hyper-temporal remote sensing protocol for high-resolution mapping of ecological sites

PubMed Central

Karl, Jason W.

2017-01-01

Ecological site classification has emerged as a highly effective land management framework, but its utility at a regional scale has been limited due to the spatial ambiguity of ecological site locations in the U.S. or the absence of ecological site maps in other regions of the world. In response to these shortcomings, this study evaluated the use of hyper-temporal remote sensing (i.e., hundreds of images) for high spatial resolution mapping of ecological sites. We posit that hyper-temporal remote sensing can provide novel insights into the spatial variability of ecological sites by quantifying the temporal response of land surface spectral properties. This temporal response provides a spectral ‘fingerprint’ of the soil-vegetation-climate relationship which is central to the concept of ecological sites. Consequently, the main objective of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of ecological sites in a semi-arid rangeland using a 28-year time series of normalized difference vegetation index from Landsat TM 5 data and modeled using support vector machine classification. Results from this study show that support vector machine classification using hyper-temporal remote sensing imagery was effective in modeling ecological site classes, with a 62% correct classification. These results were compared to Gridded Soil Survey Geographic database and expert delineated maps of ecological sites which had a 51 and 89% correct classification, respectively. An analysis of the effects of ecological state on ecological site misclassifications revealed that sites in degraded states (e.g., shrub-dominated/shrubland and bare/annuals) had a higher rate of misclassification due to their close spectral similarity with other ecological sites. This study identified three important factors that need to be addressed to improve future model predictions: 1) sampling designs need to fully represent the range of both within class (i.e., states) and between class (i.e., ecological sites) spectral variability through time, 2) field sampling protocols that accurately characterize key soil properties (e.g., texture, depth) need to be adopted, and 3) additional environmental covariates (e.g. terrain attributes) need to be evaluated that may help further differentiate sites with similar spectral signals. Finally, the proposed hyper-temporal remote sensing framework may provide a standardized approach to evaluate and test our ecological site concepts through examining differences in vegetation dynamics in response to climatic variability and other drivers of land-use change. Results from this study demonstrate the efficacy of the hyper-temporal remote sensing approach for high resolution mapping of ecological sites, and highlights its utility in terms of reduced cost and time investment relative to traditional manual mapping approaches. PMID:28414731

A hyper-temporal remote sensing protocol for high-resolution mapping of ecological sites.

PubMed

Maynard, Jonathan J; Karl, Jason W

2017-01-01

Ecological site classification has emerged as a highly effective land management framework, but its utility at a regional scale has been limited due to the spatial ambiguity of ecological site locations in the U.S. or the absence of ecological site maps in other regions of the world. In response to these shortcomings, this study evaluated the use of hyper-temporal remote sensing (i.e., hundreds of images) for high spatial resolution mapping of ecological sites. We posit that hyper-temporal remote sensing can provide novel insights into the spatial variability of ecological sites by quantifying the temporal response of land surface spectral properties. This temporal response provides a spectral 'fingerprint' of the soil-vegetation-climate relationship which is central to the concept of ecological sites. Consequently, the main objective of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of ecological sites in a semi-arid rangeland using a 28-year time series of normalized difference vegetation index from Landsat TM 5 data and modeled using support vector machine classification. Results from this study show that support vector machine classification using hyper-temporal remote sensing imagery was effective in modeling ecological site classes, with a 62% correct classification. These results were compared to Gridded Soil Survey Geographic database and expert delineated maps of ecological sites which had a 51 and 89% correct classification, respectively. An analysis of the effects of ecological state on ecological site misclassifications revealed that sites in degraded states (e.g., shrub-dominated/shrubland and bare/annuals) had a higher rate of misclassification due to their close spectral similarity with other ecological sites. This study identified three important factors that need to be addressed to improve future model predictions: 1) sampling designs need to fully represent the range of both within class (i.e., states) and between class (i.e., ecological sites) spectral variability through time, 2) field sampling protocols that accurately characterize key soil properties (e.g., texture, depth) need to be adopted, and 3) additional environmental covariates (e.g. terrain attributes) need to be evaluated that may help further differentiate sites with similar spectral signals. Finally, the proposed hyper-temporal remote sensing framework may provide a standardized approach to evaluate and test our ecological site concepts through examining differences in vegetation dynamics in response to climatic variability and other drivers of land-use change. Results from this study demonstrate the efficacy of the hyper-temporal remote sensing approach for high resolution mapping of ecological sites, and highlights its utility in terms of reduced cost and time investment relative to traditional manual mapping approaches.

Damping scaling factors for elastic response spectra for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions: "average" horizontal component

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rezaeian, Sanaz; Bozorgnia, Yousef; Idriss, I.M.; Abrahamson, Norman; Campbell, Kenneth; Silva, Walter

2014-01-01

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for elastic response spectra are typically developed at a 5% viscous damping ratio. In reality, however, structural and nonstructural systems can have other damping ratios. This paper develops a new model for a damping scaling factor (DSF) that can be used to adjust the 5% damped spectral ordinates predicted by a GMPE for damping ratios between 0.5% to 30%. The model is developed based on empirical data from worldwide shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. Dependencies of the DSF on potential predictor variables, such as the damping ratio, spectral period, ground motion duration, moment magnitude, source-to-site distance, and site conditions, are examined. The strong influence of duration is captured by the inclusion of both magnitude and distance in the DSF model. Site conditions show weak influence on the DSF. The proposed damping scaling model provides functional forms for the median and logarithmic standard deviation of DSF, and is developed for both RotD50 and GMRotI50 horizontal components. A follow-up paper develops a DSF model for vertical ground motion.

Variation in piñon pine growth responses to climate across gradients of environmental stress using an individual-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmond, M. D.; Kelsey, K.; Urza, A.; Barger, N. N.

2015-12-01

Forest and woodland ecosystems play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle and may be strongly affected by changing climate. Here we use an individual-based approach to model piñon pine (Pinus edulis) radial growth responses to climate across gradients of environmental stress. We sampled piñon pine trees at 24 sites across southwestern Colorado that varied in soil available water capacity, elevation, and latitude, obtaining a total of 552 pinon pine tree ring series. We used linear mixed effect models to assess piñon pine growth responses to climate and site-level environmental stress (mean annual climatic water deficit and soil available water capacity). Using a similar modeling approach, we also determined long-term growth trends across our gradients of environmental stress. Piñon pine growth was strongly positively associated with winter precipitation and strongly negatively associated with summer vapor pressure deficit. However, the strength of the relationship between winter precipitation and piñon pine growth was affected by site-level environmental stress. Trees at sites with greater climatic water deficit (i.e. hotter, drier sites) were more sensitive to winter precipitation. Interestingly, trees at sites with greater soil available water capacity were also more sensitive to winter precipitation, as these trees had much higher growth rates during years of high precipitation. We found weak evidence of long-term declines in piñon growth rates over the past century within our study area. Growth trends overtime did vary across our soil available water capacity gradient: trees growing at sites with higher soil available water capacity responded more positively to the cool, wet climate conditions of the 1910s and 1980s, whereas tree growth rates at sites with lower soil available water capacity declined more linearly over the last century. Our findings suggest that the sensitivity of woodland ecosystems to changing climate will vary across the landscape due to differences in edaphic and physiographic factors. These results support recent dendroecology studies that emphasize the need to use a more individual-based approach to enhance our understanding of tree growth responses to climate.

Uniform shrub growth response to June temperature across the North Slope of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerman, Daniel E.; Griffin, Daniel; Hobbie, Sarah E.; Popham, Kelly; Jones, Erin; Finlay, Jacques C.

2018-04-01

The expansion of woody shrubs in arctic tundra alters many aspects of high-latitude ecosystems, including carbon cycling and wildlife habitat. Dendroecology, the study of annual growth increments in woody plants, has shown promise in revealing how climate and environmental conditions interact with shrub growth to affect these key ecosystem properties. However, a predictive understanding of how shrub growth response to climate varies across the heterogeneous landscape remains elusive. Here we use individual-based mixed effects modeling to analyze 19 624 annual growth ring measurements in the stems of Salix pulchra (Cham.), a rapidly expanding deciduous shrub. Stem samples were collected at six sites throughout the North Slope of Alaska. Sites spanned four landscapes that varied in time since glaciation and hence in soil properties, such as nutrient availability, that we expected would modulate shrub growth response to climate. Ring growth was remarkably coherent among sites and responded positively to mean June temperature. The strength of this climate response varied slightly among glacial landscapes, but in contrast to expectations, this variability was not systematically correlated with landscape age. Additionally, shrubs at all sites exhibited diminishing marginal growth gains in response to increasing temperatures, indicative of alternative growth limiting mechanisms in particularly warm years, such as temperature-induced moisture limitation. Our results reveal a regionally-coherent and robust shrub growth response to early season growing temperature, with local soil properties contributing only a minor influence on shrub growth. Our conclusions strengthen predictions of changes to wildlife habitat and improve the representation of tundra vegetation dynamics in earth systems models in response to future arctic warming.

Theory of Force Regulation by Nascent Adhesion Sites

PubMed Central

Bruinsma, Robijn

2005-01-01

The mechanical coupling of a cell with the extracellular matrix relies on adhesion sites, clusters of membrane-associated proteins that communicate forces generated along the F-Actin filaments of the cytoskeleton to connecting tissue. Nascent adhesion sites have been shown to regulate these forces in response to tissue rigidity. Force-regulation by substrate rigidity of adhesion sites with fixed area is not possible for stationary adhesion sites, according to elasticity theory. A simple model is presented to describe force regulation by dynamical adhesion sites. PMID:15849245

Simulations of surface winds at the Viking Lander sites using a one-level model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

1992-01-01

The one-level model developed by Mass and Dempsey for use in predicting surface flows in regions of complex terrain was adapted to simulate surface flows at the Viking lander sites on Mars. In the one-level model, prediction equations for surface winds and temperatures are formulated and solved. Surface temperatures change with time in response to diabatic heating, horizontal advection, adiabatic heating and cooling effects, and horizontal diffusion. Surface winds can change in response to horizontal advection, pressure gradient forces, Coriolis forces, surface drag, and horizontal diffusion. Surface pressures are determined by integration of the hydrostatic equation from the surface to some reference level. The model has successfully simulated surface flows under a variety of conditions in complex-terrain regions on Earth.

Predicting effects of environmental change on a migratory herbivore

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stillman, R A; Wood, K A; Gilkerson, Whelan; Elkinton, E; Black, J. M.; Ward, David H.; Petrie, M.

2015-01-01

Changes in climate, food abundance and disturbance from humans threaten the ability of species to successfully use stopover sites and migrate between non-breeding and breeding areas. To devise successful conservation strategies for migratory species we need to be able to predict how such changes will affect both individuals and populations. Such predictions should ideally be process-based, focusing on the mechanisms through which changes alter individual physiological state and behavior. In this study we use a process-based model to evaluate how Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) foraging on common eelgrass (Zostera marina) at a stopover site (Humboldt Bay, USA), may be affected by changes in sea level, food abundance and disturbance. The model is individual-based, with empirically based parameters, and incorporates the immigration of birds into the site, tidal changes in availability of eelgrass, seasonal and depth-related changes in eelgrass biomass, foraging behavior and energetics of the birds, and their mass-dependent decisions to emigrate. The model is validated by comparing predictions to observations across a range of system properties including the time birds spent foraging, probability of birds emigrating, mean stopover duration, peak bird numbers, rates of mass gain and distribution of birds within the site: all 11 predictions were within 35% of the observed value, and 8 within 20%. The model predicted that the eelgrass within the site could potentially support up to five times as many birds as currently use the site. Future predictions indicated that the rate of mass gain and mean stopover duration were relatively insensitive to sea level rise over the next 100 years, primarily because eelgrass habitat could redistribute shoreward into intertidal mudflats within the site to compensate for higher sea levels. In contrast, the rate of mass gain and mean stopover duration were sensitive to changes in total eelgrass biomass and the percentage of time for which birds were disturbed. We discuss the consequences of these predictions for Black Brant conservation. A wide range of migratory species responses are expected in response to environmental change. Process-based models are potential tools to predict such responses and understand the mechanisms which underpin them.

CO2 fluxes and ecosystem dynamics at five European treeless peatlands - merging data and process oriented modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metzger, C.; Jansson, P.-E.; Lohila, A.; Aurela, M.; Eickenscheidt, T.; Belelli-Marchesini, L.; Dinsmore, K. J.; Drewer, J.; van Huissteden, J.; Drösler, M.

2014-06-01

The carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange of five different peatland systems across Europe with a wide gradient in landuse intensity, water table depth, soil fertility and climate was simulated with the process oriented CoupModel. The aim of the study was to find out to what extent CO2 fluxes measured at different sites, can be explained by common processes and parameters implemented in the model. The CoupModel was calibrated to fit measured CO2 fluxes, soil temperature, snow depth and leaf area index (LAI) and resulting differences in model parameters were analysed. Finding site independent model parameters would mean that differences in the measured fluxes could be explained solely by model input data: water table, meteorological data, management and soil inventory data. The model, utilizing a site independent configuration for most of the parameters, captured seasonal variability in the major fluxes well. Parameters that differed between sites included the rate of soil organic decomposition, photosynthetic efficiency, and regulation of the mobile carbon (C) pool from senescence to shooting in the next year. The largest difference between sites was the rate coefficient for heterotrophic respiration. Setting it to a common value would lead to underestimation of mean total respiration by a factor of 2.8 up to an overestimation by a factor of 4. Despite testing a wide range of different responses to soil water and temperature, heterotrophic respiration rates were consistently lowest on formerly drained sites and highest on the managed sites. Substrate decomposability, pH and vegetation characteristics are possible explanations for the differences in decomposition rates. Applying common parameter values for the timing of plant shooting and senescence, and a minimum temperature for photosynthesis, had only a minor effect on model performance, even though the gradient in site latitude ranged from 48° N (South-Germany) to 68° N (northern Finland). This was also true for common parameters defining the moisture and temperature response for decomposition. CoupModel is able to describe measured fluxes at different sites or under different conditions, providing that the rate of soil organic decomposition, photosynthetic efficiency, and the regulation of the mobile carbon (C) pool are estimated from available information on specific soil conditions, vegetation and management of the ecosystems.

Adaptation of non-linear mixed amount with zero amount response surface model for analysis of concentration-dependent synergism and safety with midazolam, alfentanil, and propofol sedation.

PubMed

Liou, J-Y; Ting, C-K; Teng, W-N; Mandell, M S; Tsou, M-Y

2018-06-01

The non-linear mixed amount with zero amounts response surface model can be used to describe drug interactions and predict loss of response to noxious stimuli and respiratory depression. We aimed to determine whether this response surface model could be used to model sedation with the triple drug combination of midazolam, alfentanil and propofol. Sedation was monitored in 56 patients undergoing gastrointestinal endoscopy (modelling group) using modified alertness/sedation scores. A total of 227 combinations of effect-site concentrations were derived from pharmacokinetic models. Accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were calculated. Accuracy was defined as an absolute difference <0.5 between the binary patient responses and the predicted probability of loss of responsiveness. Validation was performed with a separate group (validation group) of 47 patients. Effect-site concentration ranged from 0 to 108 ng ml -1 for midazolam, 0-156 ng ml -1 for alfentanil, and 0-2.6 μg ml -1 for propofol in both groups. Synergy was strongest with midazolam and alfentanil (24.3% decrease in U 50 , concentration for half maximal drug effect). Adding propofol, a third drug, offered little additional synergy (25.8% decrease in U 50 ). Two patients (3%) experienced respiratory depression. Model accuracy was 83% and 76%, area under the curve was 0.87 and 0.80 for the modelling and validation group, respectively. The non-linear mixed amount with zero amounts triple interaction response surface model predicts patient sedation responses during endoscopy with combinations of midazolam, alfentanil, or propofol that fall within clinical use. Our model also suggests a safety margin of alfentanil fraction <0.12 that avoids respiratory depression after loss of responsiveness. Copyright © 2018 British Journal of Anaesthesia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differences in components at delayed-type hypersensitivity reaction sites in mice immunized with either a protective or a nonprotective immunogen of Cryptococcus neoformans.

PubMed

Nichols, Kasie L; Bauman, Sean K; Schafer, Fredda B; Murphy, Juneann W

2002-02-01

Cell-mediated immunity is the major protective mechanism against Cryptococcus neoformans. Delayed swelling reactions, i.e., delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH), in response to an intradermal injection of specific antigen are used as a means of detecting a cell-mediated immune (CMI) response to the antigen. We have found previously that the presence of an anticryptococcal DTH response in mice is not always indicative of protection against a cryptococcal infection. Using one immunogen that induces a protective anticryptococcal CMI response and one that induces a nonprotective response, we have shown that mice immunized with the protective immunogen undergo a classical DTH response characterized by mononuclear cell and neutrophil infiltrates and the presence of gamma interferon and NO. In contrast, immunization with the nonprotective immunogen results in an influx of primarily neutrophils and production of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) at the DTH reaction site. Even when the anticryptococcal DTH response was augmented by blocking the down-regulator, CTLA-4 (CD152), on T cells in the mice given the nonprotective immunogen, the main leukocyte population infiltrating the DTH reaction site is the neutrophil. Although TNF-alpha is increased at the DTH reaction site in mice immunized with the nonprotective immunogen, it is unlikely that TNF-alpha activates the neutrophils, because the density of TNF receptors on the neutrophils is reduced below control levels. Uncoupling of DTH reactivity and protection has been demonstrated in other infectious-disease models; however, the mechanisms differ from our model. These findings stress the importance of defining the cascade of events occurring in response to various immunogens and establishing the relationships between protection and DTH reactions.

Coupled Responses of Sewol, Twin Barges and Slings During Salvage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zong; Wang, Wei-ping; Jiang, Yan; Chen, Shi-hai

2018-04-01

Korean Sewol is successfully lifted up with the strand jack system based on twin barges. During the salvage operation, two barges and Sewol encounter offshore environmental conditions of wave, current and wind. It is inevitable that the relative motions among the three bodies are coupled with the sling tensions, which may cause big dynamic loads for the lifting system. During the project engineering phase and the site operation, it is necessary to build up a simulation model that can precisely generate the coupled responses in order to define a suitable weather window and monitor risks for the salvage operation. A special method for calculating multibody coupled responses is introduced into Sewol salvage project. Each body's hydrodynamic force and moment in multibody configuration is calculated in the way that one body is treated as freely moving in space, while other bodies are set as fixed globally. The hydrodynamic force and moment are then applied into a numerical simulation model with some calibration coefficients being inserted. These coefficients are calibrated with the model test results. The simulation model built up this way can predict coupled responses with the similar accuracy as the model test and full scale measurement, and particularly generate multibody shielding effects. Site measured responses and the responses only resulted from from the simulation keep project management simultaneously to judge risks of each salvage stage, which are important for success of Sewol salvage.

A correlation analysis of percent canopy closure versus TMS spectral response for selected forest sites in the San Juan National Forest, Colorado

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butera, M. K.

1983-01-01

The correlation of canopy closure with the signal response of individual thematic mapper simulator (TMS) bands for selected forest sites in the San Juan National Forest, Colorado was investigated. Ground truth consisted of a photointerpreted determination of percent canopy closure of 0 to 100 percent for 32 sites. The sites selected were situated on plateaus at an elevation of approximately 3 km with slope or = 10 percent. The predominant tree species were ponderosa pine and aspen. The mean TMS response per band per site was calculated from data acquired by aircraft during mid-September, 1981. A correlation analysis of TMS response vs. canopy closure resulted in the following correlation coefficients for bands 1 through 7, respectively: -0.757, -0.663, -0.666, -0.088, -0.797, -0.763. Two model regressions were applied to the TMS data set to create a map of predicted percent forest canopy closure for the study area. Results indicated percent predictive accuracies of 71, 74, and 57 for percent canopy closure classes of 0-25, 25-75, and 75-100, respectively.

Posttest analysis of the 1:6-scale reinforced concrete containment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pfeiffer, P.A.; Kennedy, J.M.; Marchertas, A.H.

A prediction of the response of the Sandia National Laboratories 1:6- scale reinforced concrete containment model test was made by Argonne National Laboratory. ANL along with nine other organizations performed a detailed nonlinear response analysis of the 1:6-scale model containment subjected to overpressurization in the fall of 1986. The two-dimensional code TEMP-STRESS and the three-dimensional NEPTUNE code were utilized (1) to predict the global response of the structure, (2) to identify global failure sites and the corresponding failure pressures and (3) to identify some local failure sites and pressure levels. A series of axisymmetric models was studied with the two-dimensionalmore » computer program TEMP-STRESS. The comparison of these pretest computations with test data from the containment model has provided a test for the capability of the respective finite element codes to predict global failure modes, and hence serves as a validation of these codes. Only the two-dimensional analyses will be discussed in this paper. 3 refs., 10 figs.« less

Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

2016-01-01

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

Modeling regeneration responses of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to abiotic conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

2014-01-01

Ecosystems dominated by big sagebrush, Artemisia tridentata Nuttall (Asteraceae), which are the most widespread ecosystems in semiarid western North America, have been affected by land use practices and invasive species. Loss of big sagebrush and the decline of associated species, such as greater sage-grouse, are a concern to land managers and conservationists. However, big sagebrush regeneration remains difficult to achieve by restoration and reclamation efforts and there is no regeneration simulation model available. We present here the first process-based, daily time-step, simulation model to predict yearly big sagebrush regeneration including relevant germination and seedling responses to abiotic factors. We estimated values, uncertainty, and importance of 27 model parameters using a total of 1435 site-years of observation. Our model explained 74% of variability of number of years with successful regeneration at 46 sites. It also achieved 60% overall accuracy predicting yearly regeneration success/failure. Our results identify specific future research needed to improve our understanding of big sagebrush regeneration, including data at the subspecies level and improved parameter estimates for start of seed dispersal, modified wet thermal-time model of germination, and soil water potential influences. We found that relationships between big sagebrush regeneration and climate conditions were site specific, varying across the distribution of big sagebrush. This indicates that statistical models based on climate are unsuitable for understanding range-wide regeneration patterns or for assessing the potential consequences of changing climate on sagebrush regeneration and underscores the value of this process-based model. We used our model to predict potential regeneration across the range of sagebrush ecosystems in the western United States, which confirmed that seedling survival is a limiting factor, whereas germination is not. Our results also suggested that modeled regeneration suitability is necessary but not sufficient to explain sagebrush presence. We conclude that future assessment of big sagebrush responses to climate change will need to account for responses of regenerative stages using a process-based understanding, such as provided by our model.

Variability of site response in the Los Angeles urban area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, S.; Cranswick, E.; Frankel, A.; Carver, D.; Meremonte, M.

1997-01-01

This article addresses the variability of site response in the Los Angeles area and possible structural causes for the observations. Aftershock records from 231 sites in the San Fernando and Los Angeles basins and the surrounding mountains are used in this study. Spectral ratios, taken with respect to a low-amplitude reference site, are used to document the variation in site amplification in the frequency range 2 to 6 Hz, both spatially and with backazimuth to the source. At higher frequencies (6 to 10 Hz), spectral ratios are shown to have greater spatial variability. Interstation spectral ratios are used to measure the standard deviation among sources as a function of station separation. An increase in the variation in ground motion is shown to take place at a station separation of 1 km. Relative site-response estimates between nearby stations are used to demonstrate that preferred directions of motion can exist even in areas with no surface topographic effects. Significant variations in site response exist over short baselines (up to a factor of 2 over 200 m) that are not explained by differences in surficial geology or shallow shear-wave velocity. A variety of investigative approaches is used, including spectral ratios, arrival-time variations, 1D and 2D waveform modeling, and comparison with seismic reflection lines, to determine the most likely causes of these observations. A correlation is demonstrated between late arrival times of P and S waves and larger site amplification in Sherman Oaks and Northridge. This observation, in conjunction with waveform modeling and seismic reflection profiles, is used to infer that sedimentary structures in the upper 1 to 2 km and topography on the sediment-basement interface play an important role in determining site amplification. These structures, in the form of folds and buried basins, focus energy in spatially restricted areas at the surface. Comparison of displacement waveforms at nearby stations having disparate site amplifications, complemented by known shallow shear-wave velocities at selected sites, is used to support the argument that these structures, in some cases, can be the dominant factor in the modification of local ground motions.

Linking physics with physiology in TMS: a sphere field model to determine the cortical stimulation site in TMS.

PubMed

Thielscher, Axel; Kammer, Thomas

2002-11-01

A fundamental problem of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is determining the site and size of the stimulated cortical area. In the motor system, the most common procedure for this is motor mapping. The obtained two-dimensional distribution of coil positions with associated muscle responses is used to calculate a center of gravity on the skull. However, even in motor mapping the exact stimulation site on the cortex is not known and only rough estimates of its size are possible. We report a new method which combines physiological measurements with a physical model used to predict the electric field induced by the TMS coil. In four subjects motor responses in a small hand muscle were mapped with 9-13 stimulation sites at the head perpendicular to the central sulcus in order to keep the induced current direction constant in a given cortical region of interest. Input-output functions from these head locations were used to determine stimulator intensities that elicit half-maximal muscle responses. Based on these stimulator intensities the field distribution on the individual cortical surface was calculated as rendered from anatomical MR data. The region on the cortical surface in which the different stimulation sites produced the same electric field strength (minimal variance, 4.2 +/- 0.8%.) was determined as the most likely stimulation site on the cortex. In all subjects, it was located at the lateral part of the hand knob in the motor cortex. Comparisons of model calculations with the solutions obtained in this manner reveal that the stimulated cortex area innervating the target muscle is substantially smaller than the size of the electric field induced by the coil. Our results help to resolve fundamental questions raised by motor mapping studies as well as motor threshold measurements.

Mouse strain and injection site are crucial for detecting linked suppression in transplant recipients by trans-vivo DTH assay.

PubMed

Burlingham, W J; Jankowska-Gan, E

2007-02-01

Chemokine-driven accumulation of lymphocytes, mononuclear and polymorphonuclear proinflammatory cells in antigenic tissue sites is a key feature of several types of T-cell-dependent autoimmunity and transplant rejection pathology. It is now clear that the immune system expends considerable energy to control this process, exemplified by the sequential layers of regulatory cell input, both innate and adaptive, designed to prevent a classical Type IV or 'delayed-type' hypersensitivity (DTH) reaction from occurring in the visual field of the eye. Yet, despite an abundance of in vitro assays currently available to the human T-cell immunologist, none of them adequately models the human DTH response and its various control features. The theme of this article is that it is relatively easy to model the effector side of the human DTH response with xenogeneic adoptive transfer models. However, we show that in order to detect inhibition of a recall DTH in response to colocalized donor antigen (linked suppression)--a characteristic feature of peripheral tolerance to an organ transplant--both the challenge site and the immunocompetence of the mouse adoptive host are critical factors limiting the sensitivity of the trans-vivo DTH test.

Ecosystem Model Performance at Wetlands: Results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Schroeder, N. M.; NACP Site Synthesis Participants

2011-12-01

Northern peatlands contain a significant fraction of the global carbon pool, and their responses to hydrological change are likely to be important factors in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Global-scale carbon cycle modeling studies typically use general ecosystem models with coarse spatial resolution, often without peatland-specific processes. Here, seven ecosystem models were used to simulate CO2 fluxes at three field sites in Canada and the northern United States, including two nutrient-rich fens and one nutrient-poor, sphagnum-dominated bog, from 2002-2006. Flux residuals (simulated - observed) were positively correlated with measured water table for both gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) at the two fen sites for all models, and were positively correlated with water table at the bog site for the majority of models. Modeled diurnal cycles at fen sites agreed well with eddy covariance measurements overall. Eddy covariance GEP and ER were higher during dry periods than during wet periods, while model results predicted either the opposite relationship or no significant difference. At the bog site, eddy covariance GEP had no significant dependence on water table, while models predicted higher GEP during wet periods. All models significantly over-estimated GEP at the bog site, and all but one over-estimated ER at the bog site. Carbon cycle models in peatland-rich regions could be improved by incorporating better models or measurements of hydrology and by inhibiting GEP and ER rates under saturated conditions. Bogs and fens likely require distinct treatments in ecosystem models due to differences in nutrients, peat properties, and plant communities.

Decision Support System For Management Of Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal At The Nevada Test Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shott, G.; Yucel, V.; Desotell, L.

2006-07-01

The long-term safety of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) low-level radioactive disposal facilities is assessed by conducting a performance assessment -- a systematic analysis that compares estimated risks to the public and the environment with performance objectives contained in DOE Manual 435.1-1, Radioactive Waste Management Manual. Before site operations, facilities design features such as final inventory, waste form characteristics, and closure cover design may be uncertain. Site operators need a modeling tool that can be used throughout the operational life of the disposal site to guide decisions regarding the acceptance of problematic waste streams, new disposal cell design, environmental monitoringmore » program design, and final site closure. In response to these needs the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office (NNSA/NSO) has developed a decision support system for the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site in Frenchman Flat on the Nevada Test Site. The core of the system is a probabilistic inventory and performance assessment model implemented in the GoldSim{sup R} simulation platform. The modeling platform supports multiple graphic capabilities that allow clear documentation of the model data sources, conceptual model, mathematical implementation, and results. The combined models have the capability to estimate disposal site inventory, contaminant concentrations in environmental media, and radiological doses to members of the public engaged in various activities at multiple locations. The model allows rapid assessment and documentation of the consequences of waste management decisions using the most current site characterization information, radionuclide inventory, and conceptual model. The model is routinely used to provide annual updates of site performance, evaluate the consequences of disposal of new waste streams, develop waste concentration limits, optimize the design of new disposal cells, and assess the adequacy of environmental monitoring programs. (authors)« less

Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

Remote Sensing of Ecosystem Light Use Efficiency Using MODIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huemmrich, K. F.; Middleton, E.; Landis, D.; Black, T. A.; Barr, A. G.; McCaughey, J. H.; Hall, F.

2009-12-01

Understanding the dynamics of the global carbon cycle requires an accurate determination of the spatial and temporal distribution of photosynthetic CO2 uptake by terrestrial vegetation. Optimal photosynthetic function is negatively affected by stress factors that cause down-regulation (i.e., reduced rate of photosynthesis). Present modeling approaches to determine ecosystem carbon exchange rely on meteorological data as inputs to models that predict the relative photosynthetic function in response to environmental conditions inducing stress (e.g., drought, high/low temperatures). This study examines the determination of ecosystem photosynthetic light use efficiency (LUE) from remote sensing, through measurement of vegetation spectral reflectance changes associated with physiologic stress responses exhibited by photosynthetic pigments. This approach uses the Moderate-Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Aqua and Terra to provide frequent, narrow-band measurements. The reflective ocean MODIS bands were used to calculate the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), an index that is sensitive to reflectance changes near 531nm associated with vegetation stress responses exhibited by photosynthetic pigments in the xanthophyll cycle. MODIS PRI values were compared with LUE calculated from CO2 flux measured at four Canadian forest sites: A mature Douglas fir site in British Columbia, mature aspen and black spruce sites in Saskatchewan, and a mixed forest site in Ontario, all part of the Canadian Carbon Program network. The relationships between LUE and MODIS PRI were different among forest types, with clear differences in the slopes of the relationships for conifer and deciduous forests. The MODIS based LUE measurements provide a more accurate estimation of observed LUE than the values calculated in the MODIS GPP model. This suggests the possibility of a GPP model that uses MODIS LUE instead of modeled LUE. This type of model may provide a useful contrast to existing models driven by meteorological data. The main impediment to developing such a model is the lack of a MODIS product that provides surface reflectance for the MODIS ocean bands over land.

Neurons with two sites of synaptic integration learn invariant representations.

PubMed

Körding, K P; König, P

2001-12-01

Neurons in mammalian cerebral cortex combine specific responses with respect to some stimulus features with invariant responses to other stimulus features. For example, in primary visual cortex, complex cells code for orientation of a contour but ignore its position to a certain degree. In higher areas, such as the inferotemporal cortex, translation-invariant, rotation-invariant, and even view point-invariant responses can be observed. Such properties are of obvious interest to artificial systems performing tasks like pattern recognition. It remains to be resolved how such response properties develop in biological systems. Here we present an unsupervised learning rule that addresses this problem. It is based on a neuron model with two sites of synaptic integration, allowing qualitatively different effects of input to basal and apical dendritic trees, respectively. Without supervision, the system learns to extract invariance properties using temporal or spatial continuity of stimuli. Furthermore, top-down information can be smoothly integrated in the same framework. Thus, this model lends a physiological implementation to approaches of unsupervised learning of invariant-response properties.

A Novel Diffuse Fraction-Based Two-Leaf Light Use Efficiency Model: An Application Quantifying Photosynthetic Seasonality across 20 AmeriFlux Flux Tower Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Hao; Wang, Shao-Qiang; Yu, Kai-Liang; Wang, Bin; Yu, Qin; Bohrer, Gil; Billesbach, Dave; Bracho, Rosvel; Rahman, Faiz; Shugart, Herman H.

2017-10-01

Diffuse radiation can increase canopy light use efficiency (LUE). This creates the need to differentiate the effects of direct and diffuse radiation when simulating terrestrial gross primary production (GPP). Here, we present a novel GPP model, the diffuse-fraction-based two-leaf model (DTEC), which includes the leaf response to direct and diffuse radiation, and treats maximum LUE for shaded leaves (ɛmsh defined as a power function of the diffuse fraction (Df)) and sunlit leaves (ɛmsu defined as a constant) separately. An Amazonian rainforest site (KM67) was used to calibrate the model by simulating the linear relationship between monthly canopy LUE and Df. This showed a positive response of forest GPP to atmospheric diffuse radiation, and suggested that diffuse radiation was more limiting than global radiation and water availability for Amazon rainforest GPP on a monthly scale. Further evaluation at 20 independent AmeriFlux sites showed that the DTEC model, when driven by monthly meteorological data and MODIS leaf area index (LAI) products, explained 70% of the variability observed in monthly flux tower GPP. This exceeded the 51% accounted for by the MODIS 17A2 big-leaf GPP product. The DTEC model's explicit accounting for the impacts of diffuse radiation and soil water stress along with its parameterization for C4 and C3 plants was responsible for this difference. The evaluation of DTEC at Amazon rainforest sites demonstrated its potential to capture the unique seasonality of higher GPP during the diffuse radiation-dominated wet season. Our results highlight the importance of diffuse radiation in seasonal GPP simulation.