Direct and indirect effects of multiple stressors on stream invertebrates across watershed, reach and site scales: A structural equation modelling better informing on hydromorphological impacts.

PubMed

Villeneuve, B; Piffady, J; Valette, L; Souchon, Y; Usseglio-Polatera, P

2018-01-15

The purpose of our approach was to take into account the nested spatial scales driving stream functioning in the description of pressures/ecological status links by analysing the results of a hierarchical model. The development of this model has allowed us to answer the following questions: Does the consideration of the indirect links between anthropogenic pressures and stream ecological status modify the hierarchy of pressure types impacting benthic invertebrates? Do the different nested scales play different roles in the anthropogenic pressures/ecological status relationship? Does this model lead to better understanding of the specific role of hydromorphology in the evaluation of stream ecological status? To achieve that goal, we used the Partial Least Square (PLS) path modelling method to develop a structural model linking variables describing (i) land use and hydromorphological alterations at the watershed scale, (ii) hydromorphological alterations at the reach scale, (iii) nutrients-organic matter contamination levels at the site scale, and (iv) substrate characteristics at the sampling site scale, to explain variation in values of a macroinvertebrate-based multimetric index: the French I 2 M 2 . We have highlighted the importance of land use effects exerted on both hydromorphological and chemical characteristics of streams observed at finer scales and their subsequent indirect impact on stream ecological status. Hydromorphological alterations have an effect on the substrate mosaic structure and on the concentrations of nutrients and organic matter at site scale. This result implies that stream hydromorphology can have a major indirect effect on macroinvertebrate assemblages and that the hierarchy of impacts of anthropogenic pressures on stream ecological status generally described in the literature - often determining strategic restoration priorities - has to be re-examined. Finally, the effects of nutrients and organic matter on macroinvertebrate assemblages are lower than expected when all the indirect effects of land use and hydromorphological alterations are taken into account. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contrasting patterns of fine-scale herb layer species composition in temperate forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chudomelová, Markéta; Zelený, David; Li, Ching-Feng

2017-04-01

Although being well described at the landscape level, patterns in species composition of forest herb layer are rarely studied at smaller scales. Here, we examined fine-scale environmental determinants and spatial structures of herb layer communities in thermophilous oak- and hornbeam dominated forests of the south-eastern part of the Czech Republic. Species composition of herb layer vegetation and environmental variables were recorded within a fixed grid of 2 × 2 m subplots regularly distributed within 1-ha quadrate plots in three forest stands. For each site, environmental models best explaining species composition were constructed using constrained ordination analysis. Spatial eigenvector mapping was used to model and account for spatial structures in community variation. Mean Ellenberg indicator values calculated for each subplot were used for ecological interpretation of spatially structured residual variation. The amount of variation explained by environmental and spatial models as well as the selection of variables with the best explanatory power differed among sites. As an important environmental factor, relative elevation was common to all three sites, while pH and canopy openness were shared by two sites. Both environmental and community variation was mostly coarse-scaled, as was the spatially structured portion of residual variation. When corrected for bias due to spatial autocorrelation, those environmental factors with already weak explanatory power lost their significance. Only a weak evidence of possibly omitted environmental predictor was found for autocorrelated residuals of site models using mean Ellenberg indicator values. Community structure was determined by different factors at different sites. The relative importance of environmental filtering vs. spatial processes was also site specific, implying that results of fine-scale studies tend to be shaped by local conditions. Contrary to expectations based on other studies, overall dominance of spatial processes at fine scale has not been detected. Ecologists should keep this in mind when making generalizations about community dynamics.

A predictive nondestructive model for the covariation of tree height, diameter, and stem volume scaling relationships.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhongrui; Zhong, Quanlin; Niklas, Karl J; Cai, Liang; Yang, Yusheng; Cheng, Dongliang

2016-08-24

Metabolic scaling theory (MST) posits that the scaling exponents among plant height H, diameter D, and biomass M will covary across phyletically diverse species. However, the relationships between scaling exponents and normalization constants remain unclear. Therefore, we developed a predictive model for the covariation of H, D, and stem volume V scaling relationships and used data from Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) in Jiangxi province, China to test it. As predicted by the model and supported by the data, normalization constants are positively correlated with their associated scaling exponents for D vs. V and H vs. V, whereas normalization constants are negatively correlated with the scaling exponents of H vs. D. The prediction model also yielded reliable estimations of V (mean absolute percentage error = 10.5 ± 0.32 SE across 12 model calibrated sites). These results (1) support a totally new covariation scaling model, (2) indicate that differences in stem volume scaling relationships at the intra-specific level are driven by anatomical or ecophysiological responses to site quality and/or management practices, and (3) provide an accurate non-destructive method for predicting Chinese fir stem volume.

Development and field validation of a regional, management-scale habitat model: A koala Phascolarctos cinereus case study.

PubMed

Law, Bradley; Caccamo, Gabriele; Roe, Paul; Truskinger, Anthony; Brassil, Traecey; Gonsalves, Leroy; McConville, Anna; Stanton, Matthew

2017-09-01

Species distribution models have great potential to efficiently guide management for threatened species, especially for those that are rare or cryptic. We used MaxEnt to develop a regional-scale model for the koala Phascolarctos cinereus at a resolution (250 m) that could be used to guide management. To ensure the model was fit for purpose, we placed emphasis on validating the model using independently-collected field data. We reduced substantial spatial clustering of records in coastal urban areas using a 2-km spatial filter and by modeling separately two subregions separated by the 500-m elevational contour. A bias file was prepared that accounted for variable survey effort. Frequency of wildfire, soil type, floristics and elevation had the highest relative contribution to the model, while a number of other variables made minor contributions. The model was effective in discriminating different habitat suitability classes when compared with koala records not used in modeling. We validated the MaxEnt model at 65 ground-truth sites using independent data on koala occupancy (acoustic sampling) and habitat quality (browse tree availability). Koala bellows ( n  = 276) were analyzed in an occupancy modeling framework, while site habitat quality was indexed based on browse trees. Field validation demonstrated a linear increase in koala occupancy with higher modeled habitat suitability at ground-truth sites. Similarly, a site habitat quality index at ground-truth sites was correlated positively with modeled habitat suitability. The MaxEnt model provided a better fit to estimated koala occupancy than the site-based habitat quality index, probably because many variables were considered simultaneously by the model rather than just browse species. The positive relationship of the model with both site occupancy and habitat quality indicates that the model is fit for application at relevant management scales. Field-validated models of similar resolution would assist in guiding management of conservation-dependent species.

Perturbations and gradients as fundamental tests for modeling the soil carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Bailey, V. L.; Becker, K.; Fansler, S.; Hinkle, C.; Liu, C.

2013-12-01

An important step in matching process-level knowledge to larger-scale measurements and model results is to challenge those models with site-specific perturbations and/or changing environmental conditions. Here we subject modified versions of an ecosystem process model to two stringent tests: replicating a long-term climate change dryland experiment (Rattlesnake Mountain) and partitioning the carbon fluxes of a soil drainage gradient in the northern Everglades (Disney Wilderness Preserve). For both sites, on-site measurements were supplemented by laboratory incubations of soil columns. We used a parameter-space search algorithm to optimize, within observational limits, the model's influential inputs, so that the spun-up carbon stocks and fluxes matched observed values. Modeled carbon fluxes (net primary production and net ecosystem exchange) agreed with measured values, within observational error limits, but the model's partitioning of soil fluxes (autotrophic versus heterotrophic), did not match laboratory measurements from either site. Accounting for site heterogeneity at DWP, modeled carbon exchange was reasonably consistent with values from eddy covariance. We discuss the implications of this work for ecosystem- to global scale modeling of ecosystems in a changing climate.

Improving catchment discharge predictions by inferring flow route contributions from a nested-scale monitoring and model setup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, Y.; Rozemeijer, J. C.; de Rooij, G. H.; van Geer, F. C.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; de Louw, P. G. B.

2011-03-01

Identifying effective measures to reduce nutrient loads of headwaters in lowland catchments requires a thorough understanding of flow routes of water and nutrients. In this paper we assess the value of nested-scale discharge and groundwater level measurements for the estimation of flow route volumes and for predictions of catchment discharge. In order to relate field-site measurements to the catchment-scale an upscaling approach is introduced that assumes that scale differences in flow route fluxes originate from differences in the relationship between groundwater storage and the spatial structure of the groundwater table. This relationship is characterized by the Groundwater Depth Distribution (GDD) curve that relates spatial variation in groundwater depths to the average groundwater depth. The GDD-curve was measured for a single field site (0.009 km2) and simple process descriptions were applied to relate groundwater levels to flow route discharges. This parsimonious model could accurately describe observed storage, tube drain discharge, overland flow and groundwater flow simultaneously with Nash-Sutcliff coefficients exceeding 0.8. A probabilistic Monte Carlo approach was applied to upscale field-site measurements to catchment scales by inferring scale-specific GDD-curves from the hydrographs of two nested catchments (0.4 and 6.5 km2). The estimated contribution of tube drain effluent (a dominant source for nitrates) decreased with increasing scale from 76-79% at the field-site to 34-61% and 25-50% for both catchment scales. These results were validated by demonstrating that a model conditioned on nested-scale measurements improves simulations of nitrate loads and predictions of extreme discharges during validation periods compared to a model that was conditioned on catchment discharge only.

Controls on seasonal patterns of maximum ecosystem carbon uptake and canopy-scale photosynthetic light response: contributions from both temperature and photoperiod.

PubMed

Stoy, Paul C; Trowbridge, Amy M; Bauerle, William L

2014-02-01

Most models of photosynthetic activity assume that temperature is the dominant control over physiological processes. Recent studies have found, however, that photoperiod is a better descriptor than temperature of the seasonal variability of photosynthetic physiology at the leaf scale. Incorporating photoperiodic control into global models consequently improves their representation of the seasonality and magnitude of atmospheric CO2 concentration. The role of photoperiod versus that of temperature in controlling the seasonal variability of photosynthetic function at the canopy scale remains unexplored. We quantified the seasonal variability of ecosystem-level light response curves using nearly 400 site years of eddy covariance data from over eighty Free Fair-Use sites in the FLUXNET database. Model parameters describing maximum canopy CO2 uptake and the initial slope of the light response curve peaked after peak temperature in about 2/3 of site years examined, emphasizing the important role of temperature in controlling seasonal photosynthetic function. Akaike's Information Criterion analyses indicated that photoperiod should be included in models of seasonal parameter variability in over 90% of the site years investigated here, demonstrating that photoperiod also plays an important role in controlling seasonal photosynthetic function. We also performed a Granger causality analysis on both gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and GEP normalized by photosynthetic photon flux density (GEP n ). While photoperiod Granger-caused GEP and GEP n in 99 and 92% of all site years, respectively, air temperature Granger-caused GEP in a mere 32% of site years but Granger-caused GEP n in 81% of all site years. Results demonstrate that incorporating photoperiod may be a logical step toward improving models of ecosystem carbon uptake, but not at the expense of including enzyme kinetic-based temperature constraints on canopy-scale photosynthesis.

Using multi-scale distribution and movement effects along a montane highway to identify optimal crossing locations for a large-bodied mammal community.

PubMed

Schuster, Richard; Römer, Heinrich; Germain, Ryan R

2013-01-01

Roads are a major cause of habitat fragmentation that can negatively affect many mammal populations. Mitigation measures such as crossing structures are a proposed method to reduce the negative effects of roads on wildlife, but the best methods for determining where such structures should be implemented, and how their effects might differ between species in mammal communities is largely unknown. We investigated the effects of a major highway through south-eastern British Columbia, Canada on several mammal species to determine how the highway may act as a barrier to animal movement, and how species may differ in their crossing-area preferences. We collected track data of eight mammal species across two winters, along both the highway and pre-marked transects, and used a multi-scale modeling approach to determine the scale at which habitat characteristics best predicted preferred crossing sites for each species. We found evidence for a severe barrier effect on all investigated species. Freely-available remotely-sensed habitat landscape data were better than more costly, manually-digitized microhabitat maps in supporting models that identified preferred crossing sites; however, models using both types of data were better yet. Further, in 6 of 8 cases models which incorporated multiple spatial scales were better at predicting preferred crossing sites than models utilizing any single scale. While each species differed in terms of the landscape variables associated with preferred/avoided crossing sites, we used a multi-model inference approach to identify locations along the highway where crossing structures may benefit all of the species considered. By specifically incorporating both highway and off-highway data and predictions we were able to show that landscape context plays an important role for maximizing mitigation measurement efficiency. Our results further highlight the need for mitigation measures along major highways to improve connectivity between mammal populations, and illustrate how multi-scale data can be used to identify preferred crossing sites for different species within a mammal community.

Infection Threshold for an Epidemic Model in Site and Bond Percolation Worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakisaka, Yukio; Yoshimura, Jin; Takeuchi, Yasuhiro; Sugiura, Koji; Tainaka, Kei-ichi

2010-02-01

We investigate an epidemic model on a square lattice with two protection treatments: prevention and quarantine. To explore the effects of both treatments, we apply the site and bond percolations. Computer simulations reveal that the threshold between endemic and disease-free phases can be represented by a single scaling law. The mean-field theory qualitatively predicts such infection dynamics and the scaling law.

Ocean Renewable Energy Research at U. New Hampshire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wosnik, M.; Baldwin, K.; White, C.; Carter, M.; Gress, D.; Swift, R.; Tsukrov, I.; Kraft, G.; Celikkol, B.

2008-11-01

The University of New Hampshire (UNH) is strategically positioned to develop and evaluate wave and tidal energy extraction technologies, with much of the required test site infrastructure in place already. Laboratory facilities (wave/tow tanks, flumes, water tunnels) are used to test concept validation models (scale 1:25--100) and design models (scale 1:10--30). The UNH Open Ocean Aquaculture (OOA) site located 1.6 km south of the Isles of Shoals (10 km off shore) and the General Sullivan Bridge testing facility in the Great Bay Estuary are used to test process models (scale 1:3--15) and prototype/demonstration models (scale 1:1-- 4) of wave energy and tidal energy extraction devices, respectively. Both test sites are easily accessible and in close proximity of UNH, with off-the-shelf availability. The Great Bay Estuary system is one of the most energetic tidally driven estuaries on the East Coast of the U.S. The current at the General Sullivan bridge test facility reliably exceeds four knots over part of the tidal cycle. The OOA site is a ten year old, well established offshore test facility, and is continually serviced by a dedicated research vessel and operations/diving crew. In addition to an overview of the physical resources, results of recent field testing of half- and full-scale hydrokinetic turbines, and an analysis of recent acoustic Doppler surveys of the tidal estuary will be presented.

Assessment of the scale effect on statistical downscaling quality at a station scale using a weather generator-based model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The resolution of General Circulation Models (GCMs) is too coarse to assess the fine scale or site-specific impacts of climate change. Downscaling approaches including dynamical and statistical downscaling have been developed to meet this requirement. As the resolution of climate model increases, it...

Near infrared spectroscopy to estimate the temperature reached on burned soils: strategies to develop robust models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerrero, César; Pedrosa, Elisabete T.; Pérez-Bejarano, Andrea; Keizer, Jan Jacob

2014-05-01

The temperature reached on soils is an important parameter needed to describe the wildfire effects. However, the methods for measure the temperature reached on burned soils have been poorly developed. Recently, the use of the near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has been pointed as a valuable tool for this purpose. The NIR spectrum of a soil sample contains information of the organic matter (quantity and quality), clay (quantity and quality), minerals (such as carbonates and iron oxides) and water contents. Some of these components are modified by the heat, and each temperature causes a group of changes, leaving a typical fingerprint on the NIR spectrum. This technique needs the use of a model (or calibration) where the changes in the NIR spectra are related with the temperature reached. For the development of the model, several aliquots are heated at known temperatures, and used as standards in the calibration set. This model offers the possibility to make estimations of the temperature reached on a burned sample from its NIR spectrum. However, the estimation of the temperature reached using NIR spectroscopy is due to changes in several components, and cannot be attributed to changes in a unique soil component. Thus, we can estimate the temperature reached by the interaction between temperature and the thermo-sensible soil components. In addition, we cannot expect the uniform distribution of these components, even at small scale. Consequently, the proportion of these soil components can vary spatially across the site. This variation will be present in the samples used to construct the model and also in the samples affected by the wildfire. Therefore, the strategies followed to develop robust models should be focused to manage this expected variation. In this work we compared the prediction accuracy of models constructed with different approaches. These approaches were designed to provide insights about how to distribute the efforts needed for the development of robust models, since this step is the bottle-neck of this technique. In the first approach, a plot-scale model was used to predict the temperature reached in samples collected in other plots from the same site. In a plot-scale model, all the heated aliquots come from a unique plot-scale sample. As expected, the results obtained with this approach were deceptive, because this approach was assuming that a plot-scale model would be enough to represent the whole variability of the site. The accuracy (measured as the root mean square error of prediction, thereinafter RMSEP) was 86ºC, and the bias was also high (>30ºC). In the second approach, the temperatures predicted through several plot-scale models were averaged. The accuracy was improved (RMSEP=65ºC) respect the first approach, because the variability from several plots was considered and biased predictions were partially counterbalanced. However, this approach implies more efforts, since several plot-scale models are needed. In the third approach, the predictions were obtained with site-scale models. These models were constructed with aliquots from several plots. In this case, the results were accurate, since the RMSEP was around 40ºC, the bias was very small (<1ºC) and the R2 was 0.92. As expected, this approach clearly outperformed the second approach, in spite of the fact that the same efforts were needed. In a plot-scale model, only one interaction between temperature and soil components was modelled. However, several different interactions between temperature and soil components were present in the calibration matrix of a site-scale model. Consequently, the site-scale models were able to model the temperature reached excluding the influence of the differences in soil composition, resulting in more robust models respect that variation. Summarizing, the results were highlighting the importance of an adequate strategy to develop robust and accurate models with moderate efforts, and how a wrong strategy can result in deceptive predictions.

Nested-scale discharge and groundwater level monitoring to improve predictions of flow route discharges and nitrate loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, Y.; Rozemeijer, J. C.; de Rooij, G. H.; van Geer, F. C.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; de Louw, P. G. B.

2010-10-01

Identifying effective measures to reduce nutrient loads of headwaters in lowland catchments requires a thorough understanding of flow routes of water and nutrients. In this paper we assess the value of nested-scale discharge and groundwater level measurements for predictions of catchment-scale discharge and nitrate loads. In order to relate field-site measurements to the catchment-scale an upscaling approach is introduced that assumes that scale differences in flow route fluxes originate from differences in the relationship between groundwater storage and the spatial structure of the groundwater table. This relationship is characterized by the Groundwater Depth Distribution (GDD) curve that relates spatial variation in groundwater depths to the average groundwater depth. The GDD-curve was measured for a single field site (0.009 km2) and simple process descriptions were applied to relate the groundwater levels to flow route discharges. This parsimonious model could accurately describe observed storage, tube drain discharge, overland flow and groundwater flow simultaneously with Nash-Sutcliff coefficients exceeding 0.8. A probabilistic Monte Carlo approach was applied to upscale field-site measurements to catchment scales by inferring scale-specific GDD-curves from hydrographs of two nested catchments (0.4 and 6.5 km2). The estimated contribution of tube drain effluent (a dominant source for nitrates) decreased with increasing scale from 76-79% at the field-site to 34-61% and 25-50% for both catchment scales. These results were validated by demonstrating that a model conditioned on nested-scale measurements simulates better nitrate loads and better predictions of extreme discharges during validation periods compared to a model that was conditioned on catchment discharge only.

A reduced-order modeling approach to represent subgrid-scale hydrological dynamics for land-surface simulations: application in a polygonal tundra landscape

DOE PAGES

Pau, G. S. H.; Bisht, G.; Riley, W. J.

2014-09-17

Existing land surface models (LSMs) describe physical and biological processes that occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. For example, biogeochemical and hydrological processes responsible for carbon (CO 2, CH 4) exchanges with the atmosphere range from the molecular scale (pore-scale O 2 consumption) to tens of kilometers (vegetation distribution, river networks). Additionally, many processes within LSMs are nonlinearly coupled (e.g., methane production and soil moisture dynamics), and therefore simple linear upscaling techniques can result in large prediction error. In this paper we applied a reduced-order modeling (ROM) technique known as "proper orthogonal decomposition mapping method" thatmore » reconstructs temporally resolved fine-resolution solutions based on coarse-resolution solutions. We developed four different methods and applied them to four study sites in a polygonal tundra landscape near Barrow, Alaska. Coupled surface–subsurface isothermal simulations were performed for summer months (June–September) at fine (0.25 m) and coarse (8 m) horizontal resolutions. We used simulation results from three summer seasons (1998–2000) to build ROMs of the 4-D soil moisture field for the study sites individually (single-site) and aggregated (multi-site). The results indicate that the ROM produced a significant computational speedup (> 10 3) with very small relative approximation error (< 0.1%) for 2 validation years not used in training the ROM. We also demonstrate that our approach: (1) efficiently corrects for coarse-resolution model bias and (2) can be used for polygonal tundra sites not included in the training data set with relatively good accuracy (< 1.7% relative error), thereby allowing for the possibility of applying these ROMs across a much larger landscape. By coupling the ROMs constructed at different scales together hierarchically, this method has the potential to efficiently increase the resolution of land models for coupled climate simulations to spatial scales consistent with mechanistic physical process representation.« less

Project M: Scale Model of Lunar Landing Site of Apollo 17: Focus on Lighting Conditions and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vanik, Christopher S.; Crain, Timothy P.

2010-01-01

This document captures the research and development of a scale model representation of the Apollo 17 landing site on the moon as part of the NASA INSPIRE program. Several key elements in this model were surface slope characteristics, crater sizes and locations, prominent rocks, and lighting conditions. This model supports development of Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) and Project M for the GN&C Autonomous Flight Systems Branch. It will help project engineers visualize the landing site, and is housed in the building 16 Navigation Systems Technology Lab. The lead mentor was Dr. Timothy P. Crain. The purpose of this project was to develop an accurate scale representation of the Apollo 17 landing site on the moon. This was done on an 8'2.5"X10'1.375" reduced friction granite table, which can be restored to its previous condition if needed. The first step in this project was to research the best way to model and recreate the Apollo 17 landing site for the mockup. The project required a thorough plan, budget, and schedule, which was presented to the EG6 Branch for build approval. The final phase was to build the model. The project also required thorough research on the Apollo 17 landing site and the topography of the moon. This research was done on the internet and in person with Dean Eppler, a space scientist, from JSC KX. This data was used to analyze and calculate the scale of the mockup and the ratio of the sizes of the craters, ridges, etc. The final goal was to effectively communicate project status and demonstrate the multiple advantages of using our model. The conclusion of this project was that the mockup was completed as accurately as possible, and it successfully enables the Project M specialists to visualize and plan their goal on an accurate three dimensional surface representation.

The role of fanatics in consensus formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gündüç, Semra

2015-08-01

A model of opinion dynamics with two types of agents as social actors are presented, using the Ising thermodynamic model as the dynamics template. The agents are considered as opportunists which live at sites and interact with the neighbors, or fanatics/missionaries which move from site to site randomly in persuasion of converting agents of opposite opinion with the help of opportunists. Here, the moving agents act as an external influence on the opportunists to convert them to the opposite opinion. It is shown by numerical simulations that such dynamics of opinion formation may explain some details of consensus formation even when one of the opinions are held by a minority. Regardless the distribution of the opinion, different size societies exhibit different opinion formation behavior and time scales. In order to understand general behavior, the scaling relations obtained by comparing opinion formation processes observed in societies with varying population and number of randomly moving agents are studied. For the proposed model two types of scaling relations are observed. In fixed size societies, increasing the number of randomly moving agents give a scaling relation for the time scale of the opinion formation process. The second type of scaling relation is due to the size dependent information propagation in finite but large systems, namely finite-size scaling.

Multi-scale groundwater flow modeling during temperate climate conditions for the safety assessment of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository site at Forsmark, Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joyce, Steven; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter

2014-09-01

Forsmark in Sweden has been proposed as the site of a geological repository for spent high-level nuclear fuel, to be located at a depth of approximately 470 m in fractured crystalline rock. The safety assessment for the repository has required a multi-disciplinary approach to evaluate the impact of hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical conditions close to the repository and in a wider regional context. Assessing the consequences of potential radionuclide releases requires quantitative site-specific information concerning the details of groundwater flow on the scale of individual waste canister locations (1-10 m) as well as details of groundwater flow and composition on the scale of groundwater pathways between the facility and the surface (500 m to 5 km). The purpose of this article is to provide an illustration of multi-scale modeling techniques and the results obtained when combining aspects of local-scale flows in fractures around a potential contaminant source with regional-scale groundwater flow and transport subject to natural evolution of the system. The approach set out is novel, as it incorporates both different scales of model and different levels of detail, combining discrete fracture network and equivalent continuous porous medium representations of fractured bedrock.

Insights for empirically modeling evapotranspiration influenced by riparian and upland vegetation in semiarid regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunting, Daniel P.; Kurc, Shirley A.; Glenn, Edward P.; Nagler, Pamela L.; Scott, Russell L.

2014-01-01

Water resource managers aim to ensure long-term water supplies for increasing human populations. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the water balance and accurate estimates are important to quantify safe allocations to humans while supporting environmental needs. Scaling up ET measurements from small spatial scales has been problematic due to spatiotemporal variability. Remote sensing products provide spatially distributed data that account for seasonal climate and vegetation variability. We used MODIS products [i.e., Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and nighttime land surface temperatures (LSTn)] to create empirical ET models calibrated using measured ET from three riparian-influenced and two upland, water-limited flux tower sites. Results showed that combining all sites introduced systematic bias, so we developed separate models to estimate riparian and upland ET. While EVI and LSTn were the main drivers for ET in riparian sites, precipitation replaced LSTn as the secondary driver of ET in upland sites. Riparian ET was successfully modeled using an inverse exponential approach (r2 = 0.92) while upland ET was adequately modeled using a multiple linear regression approach (r2 = 0.77). These models can be used in combination to estimate ET at basin scales provided each region is classified and precipitation data is available.

Landscape-and regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States

Treesearch

Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Jacob S. Fraser; William D. Dijak

2016-01-01

Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating at multiple scales. Niche and biophysical process models have been commonly used to predict climate change effects at regional scales, however, these models have limited capability to include site-scale population dynamics and landscape- scale disturbance and dispersal. We applied a landscape...

WIND-TUNNEL SIMULATIONS TO ASSESS DISPERSION AROUND THE WORLD TRADE CENTER SITE

EPA Science Inventory

A wind-tunnel study was conducted of dispersion from the site of the destroyed World Trade Center (WTC) in New York City. A scale model of lower Manhattan, including a scaled representation of the rubble pile, was constructed. The first phases of the study involved smoke visua...

GIS-based rapid-assessment of bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis (Richardson, 1845) suitability in reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, James M.; Liang, Yu; Shoup, Daniel E.; Dzialowski, Andrew R.; Bidwell, Joseph R.

2014-01-01

Broad-scale niche models are good for examining the potential for invasive species occurrences, but can fall short in providing managers with site-specific locations for monitoring. Using Oklahoma as an example, where invasive bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) are established in certain reservoirs, but predicted to be widely distributed based on broad-scale niche models, we cast bighead carp reproductive ecology in a site-specific geospatial framework to determine their potential establishment in additional reservoirs. Because bighead carp require large, long free-flowing rivers with suitable hydrology for reproduction but can persist in reservoirs, we considered reservoir tributaries with mean annual daily discharge ≥8.5 cubic meters per second (m3 /s) and quantified the length of their unimpeded portions. In contrast to published broad-scale niche models that identified nearly the entire state as susceptible to invasion, our site-specific models showed that few reservoirs in Oklahoma (N = 9) were suitable for bighead carp establishment. Moreover, this method was rapid and identified sites that could be prioritized for increased study or scrutiny. Our results highlight the importance of considering the environmental characteristics of individual sites, which is often the level at which management efforts are implemented when assessing susceptibility to invasion.

Characteristics of HIV Care and Treatment in PEPFAR-Supported Sites

PubMed Central

Filler, Scott; Berruti, Andres A.; Menzies, Nick; Berzon, Rick; Ellerbrock, Tedd V.; Ferris, Robert; Blandford, John M.

2011-01-01

Background The U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has supported the extension of HIV care and treatment to 2.4 million individuals by September 2009. With increasing resources targeted toward scale-up, it is important to understand the characteristics of current PEPFAR-supported HIV care and treatment sites. Methods Forty-five sites in Botswana, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Uganda, and Vietnam were sampled. Data were collected retrospectively from successive 6-month periods of site operations, through reviews of facility records and interviews with site personnel between April 2006 and March 2007. Facility size and scale-up rate, patient characteristics, staffing models, clinical and laboratory monitoring, and intervention mix were compared. Results Sites added a median of 293 patients per quarter. By the evaluation’s end, sites supported a median of 1,649 HIV patients, 922 of them receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Patients were predominantly adult (97.4%) and the majority (96.5%) were receiving regimens based on nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs). The ratios of physicians to patients dropped substantially as sites matured. ART patients were commonly seen monthly or quarterly for clinical and laboratory monitoring, with CD4 counts being taken at 6-month intervals. One-third of sites provided viral load testing. Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis was the most prevalent supportive service. Conclusions HIV treatment sites scaled up rapidly with the influx of resources and technical support through PEPFAR, providing complex health services to progressively expanding patient cohorts. Human resources are stretched thin, and delivery models and intervention mix differ widely between sites. Ongoing research is needed to identify best-practice service delivery models. PMID:21346585

A New Scheme to Characterize and Identify Protein Ubiquitination Sites.

PubMed

Nguyen, Van-Nui; Huang, Kai-Yao; Huang, Chien-Hsun; Lai, K Robert; Lee, Tzong-Yi

2017-01-01

Protein ubiquitination, involving the conjugation of ubiquitin on lysine residue, serves as an important modulator of many cellular functions in eukaryotes. Recent advancements in proteomic technology have stimulated increasing interest in identifying ubiquitination sites. However, most computational tools for predicting ubiquitination sites are focused on small-scale data. With an increasing number of experimentally verified ubiquitination sites, we were motivated to design a predictive model for identifying lysine ubiquitination sites for large-scale proteome dataset. This work assessed not only single features, such as amino acid composition (AAC), amino acid pair composition (AAPC) and evolutionary information, but also the effectiveness of incorporating two or more features into a hybrid approach to model construction. The support vector machine (SVM) was applied to generate the prediction models for ubiquitination site identification. Evaluation by five-fold cross-validation showed that the SVM models learned from the combination of hybrid features delivered a better prediction performance. Additionally, a motif discovery tool, MDDLogo, was adopted to characterize the potential substrate motifs of ubiquitination sites. The SVM models integrating the MDDLogo-identified substrate motifs could yield an average accuracy of 68.70 percent. Furthermore, the independent testing result showed that the MDDLogo-clustered SVM models could provide a promising accuracy (78.50 percent) and perform better than other prediction tools. Two cases have demonstrated the effective prediction of ubiquitination sites with corresponding substrate motifs.

Integrating ecosystems measurements from multiple eddy-covariance sites to a simple model of ecosystem process - Are there possibilities for a uniform model calibration?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minunno, Francesco; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Launiainen, Samuli; Mäkelä, Annikki

2014-05-01

Biogeochemical models quantify the material and energy flux exchanges between biosphere, atmosphere and soil, however there is still considerable uncertainty underpinning model structure and parametrization. The increasing availability of data from of multiple sources provides useful information for model calibration and validation at different space and time scales. We calibrated a simplified ecosystem process model PRELES to data from multiple sites. In this work we had the following objective: to compare a multi-site calibration and site-specific calibrations, in order to test if PRELES is a model of general applicability, and to test how well one parameterization can predict ecosystem fluxes. Model calibration and evaluation were carried out by the means of the Bayesian method; Bayesian calibration (BC) and Bayesian model comparison (BMC) were used to quantify the uncertainty in model parameters and model structure. Evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) measurements collected in 9 sites of Finland and Sweden were used in the study; half dataset was used for model calibrations and half for the comparative analyses. 10 BCs were performed; the model was independently calibrated for each of the nine sites (site-specific calibrations) and a multi-site calibration was achieved using the data from all the sites in one BC. Then 9 BMCs were carried out, one for each site, using output from the multi-site and the site-specific versions of PRELES. Similar estimates were obtained for the parameters at which model outputs are most sensitive. Not surprisingly, the joint posterior distribution achieved through the multi-site calibration was characterized by lower uncertainty, because more data were involved in the calibration process. No significant differences were encountered in the prediction of the multi-site and site-specific versions of PRELES, and after BMC, we concluded that the model can be reliably used at regional scale to simulate carbon and water fluxes of Boreal forests. Despite being a simple model, PRELES provided good estimates of GPP and ET; only for one site PRELES multi-site version underestimated water fluxes. Our study implies convergence of GPP and water processes in boreal zone to the extent that their plausible prediction is possible with a simple model using global parameterization.

Using multi-scale distribution and movement effects along a montane highway to identify optimal crossing locations for a large-bodied mammal community

PubMed Central

Römer, Heinrich; Germain, Ryan R.

2013-01-01

Roads are a major cause of habitat fragmentation that can negatively affect many mammal populations. Mitigation measures such as crossing structures are a proposed method to reduce the negative effects of roads on wildlife, but the best methods for determining where such structures should be implemented, and how their effects might differ between species in mammal communities is largely unknown. We investigated the effects of a major highway through south-eastern British Columbia, Canada on several mammal species to determine how the highway may act as a barrier to animal movement, and how species may differ in their crossing-area preferences. We collected track data of eight mammal species across two winters, along both the highway and pre-marked transects, and used a multi-scale modeling approach to determine the scale at which habitat characteristics best predicted preferred crossing sites for each species. We found evidence for a severe barrier effect on all investigated species. Freely-available remotely-sensed habitat landscape data were better than more costly, manually-digitized microhabitat maps in supporting models that identified preferred crossing sites; however, models using both types of data were better yet. Further, in 6 of 8 cases models which incorporated multiple spatial scales were better at predicting preferred crossing sites than models utilizing any single scale. While each species differed in terms of the landscape variables associated with preferred/avoided crossing sites, we used a multi-model inference approach to identify locations along the highway where crossing structures may benefit all of the species considered. By specifically incorporating both highway and off-highway data and predictions we were able to show that landscape context plays an important role for maximizing mitigation measurement efficiency. Our results further highlight the need for mitigation measures along major highways to improve connectivity between mammal populations, and illustrate how multi-scale data can be used to identify preferred crossing sites for different species within a mammal community. PMID:24244912

A test of the hierarchical model of litter decomposition.

PubMed

Bradford, Mark A; Veen, G F Ciska; Bonis, Anne; Bradford, Ella M; Classen, Aimee T; Cornelissen, J Hans C; Crowther, Thomas W; De Long, Jonathan R; Freschet, Gregoire T; Kardol, Paul; Manrubia-Freixa, Marta; Maynard, Daniel S; Newman, Gregory S; Logtestijn, Richard S P; Viketoft, Maria; Wardle, David A; Wieder, William R; Wood, Stephen A; van der Putten, Wim H

2017-12-01

Our basic understanding of plant litter decomposition informs the assumptions underlying widely applied soil biogeochemical models, including those embedded in Earth system models. Confidence in projected carbon cycle-climate feedbacks therefore depends on accurate knowledge about the controls regulating the rate at which plant biomass is decomposed into products such as CO 2 . Here we test underlying assumptions of the dominant conceptual model of litter decomposition. The model posits that a primary control on the rate of decomposition at regional to global scales is climate (temperature and moisture), with the controlling effects of decomposers negligible at such broad spatial scales. Using a regional-scale litter decomposition experiment at six sites spanning from northern Sweden to southern France-and capturing both within and among site variation in putative controls-we find that contrary to predictions from the hierarchical model, decomposer (microbial) biomass strongly regulates decomposition at regional scales. Furthermore, the size of the microbial biomass dictates the absolute change in decomposition rates with changing climate variables. Our findings suggest the need for revision of the hierarchical model, with decomposers acting as both local- and broad-scale controls on litter decomposition rates, necessitating their explicit consideration in global biogeochemical models.

The Lévy flight foraging hypothesis: forgetting about memory may lead to false verification of Brownian motion.

PubMed

Gautestad, Arild O; Mysterud, Atle

2013-01-01

The Lévy flight foraging hypothesis predicts a transition from scale-free Lévy walk (LW) to scale-specific Brownian motion (BM) as an animal moves from resource-poor towards resource-rich environment. However, the LW-BM continuum implies a premise of memory-less search, which contradicts the cognitive capacity of vertebrates. We describe methods to test if apparent support for LW-BM transitions may rather be a statistical artifact from movement under varying intensity of site fidelity. A higher frequency of returns to previously visited patches (stronger site fidelity) may erroneously be interpreted as a switch from LW towards BM. Simulations of scale-free, memory-enhanced space use illustrate how the ratio between return events and scale-free exploratory movement translates to varying strength of site fidelity. An expanded analysis of GPS data of 18 female red deer, Cervus elaphus, strengthens previous empirical support of memory-enhanced and scale-free space use in a northern forest ecosystem. A statistical mechanical model architecture that describes foraging under environment-dependent variation of site fidelity may allow for higher realism of optimal search models and movement ecology in general, in particular for vertebrates with high cognitive capacity.

Damping scaling factors for elastic response spectra for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions: "average" horizontal component

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rezaeian, Sanaz; Bozorgnia, Yousef; Idriss, I.M.; Abrahamson, Norman; Campbell, Kenneth; Silva, Walter

2014-01-01

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for elastic response spectra are typically developed at a 5% viscous damping ratio. In reality, however, structural and nonstructural systems can have other damping ratios. This paper develops a new model for a damping scaling factor (DSF) that can be used to adjust the 5% damped spectral ordinates predicted by a GMPE for damping ratios between 0.5% to 30%. The model is developed based on empirical data from worldwide shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. Dependencies of the DSF on potential predictor variables, such as the damping ratio, spectral period, ground motion duration, moment magnitude, source-to-site distance, and site conditions, are examined. The strong influence of duration is captured by the inclusion of both magnitude and distance in the DSF model. Site conditions show weak influence on the DSF. The proposed damping scaling model provides functional forms for the median and logarithmic standard deviation of DSF, and is developed for both RotD50 and GMRotI50 horizontal components. A follow-up paper develops a DSF model for vertical ground motion.

Sustainability of High Intensity Forest Management with Respect to Water QuaIity and Site Nutrient Reserves

Treesearch

Virginia R. Tolbert; Carl C. Trettin; Dale W. Johnson; John W. Parsons; Allan E. Houston; David A. Mays

2001-01-01

Ensuring sustainability of intensively managed woody crops requires determining soil and water quality effects using a combination of field data and modeling projections. Plot- and catchrnent-scale research, models, and meta-analyses are addressing nutrient availability, site quality, and measures to increase short-rotation woody crop (SRWC) productivity and site...

Cross-site comparison of land-use decision-making and its consequences across land systems with a generalized agent-based model.

PubMed

Magliocca, Nicholas R; Brown, Daniel G; Ellis, Erle C

2014-01-01

Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM) as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model) landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model enhancement.

Cross-Site Comparison of Land-Use Decision-Making and Its Consequences across Land Systems with a Generalized Agent-Based Model

PubMed Central

Magliocca, Nicholas R.; Brown, Daniel G.; Ellis, Erle C.

2014-01-01

Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM) as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model) landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model enhancement. PMID:24489696

Strategy for long-term 3D cloud-resolving simulations over the ARM SGP site and preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, W.; Liu, Y.; Song, H.; Endo, S.

2011-12-01

Parametric representations of cloud/precipitation processes continue having to be adopted in climate simulations with increasingly higher spatial resolution or with emerging adaptive mesh framework; and it is only becoming more critical that such parameterizations have to be scale aware. Continuous cloud measurements at DOE's ARM sites have provided a strong observational basis for novel cloud parameterization research at various scales. Despite significant progress in our observational ability, there are important cloud-scale physical and dynamical quantities that are either not currently observable or insufficiently sampled. To complement the long-term ARM measurements, we have explored an optimal strategy to carry out long-term 3-D cloud-resolving simulations over the ARM SGP site using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with multi-domain nesting. The factors that are considered to have important influences on the simulated cloud fields include domain size, spatial resolution, model top, forcing data set, model physics and the growth of model errors. The hydrometeor advection that may play a significant role in hydrological process within the observational domain but is often lacking, and the limitations due to the constraint of domain-wide uniform forcing in conventional cloud system-resolving model simulations, are at least partly accounted for in our approach. Conventional and probabilistic verification approaches are employed first for selected cases to optimize the model's capability of faithfully reproducing the observed mean and statistical distributions of cloud-scale quantities. This then forms the basis of our setup for long-term cloud-resolving simulations over the ARM SGP site. The model results will facilitate parameterization research, as well as understanding and dissecting parameterization deficiencies in climate models.

Characterizing the performance of ecosystem models across time scales: A spectral analysis of the North American Carbon Program site-level synthesis

Treesearch

Michael C. Dietze; Rodrigo Vargas; Andrew D. Richardson; Paul C. Stoy; Alan G. Barr; Ryan S. Anderson; M. Altaf Arain; Ian T. Baker; T. Andrew Black; Jing M. Chen; Philippe Ciais; Lawrence B. Flanagan; Christopher M. Gough; Robert F. Grant; David Hollinger; R. Cesar Izaurralde; Christopher J. Kucharik; Peter Lafleur; Shugang Liu; Erandathie Lokupitiya; Yiqi Luo; J. William Munger; Changhui Peng; Benjamin Poulter; David T. Price; Daniel M. Ricciuto; William J. Riley; Alok Kumar Sahoo; Kevin Schaefer; Andrew E. Suyker; Hanqin Tian; Christina Tonitto; Hans Verbeeck; Shashi B. Verma; Weifeng Wang; Ensheng Weng

2011-01-01

Ecosystem models are important tools for diagnosing the carbon cycle and projecting its behavior across space and time. Despite the fact that ecosystems respond to drivers at multiple time scales, most assessments of model performance do not discriminate different time scales. Spectral methods, such as wavelet analyses, present an alternative approach that enables the...

Crucial nesting habitat for gunnison sage-grouse: A spatially explicit hierarchical approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Saher, D.J.; Childers, T.M.; Stahlnecker, K.E.; Bowen, Z.H.

2012-01-01

Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of special concern and is currently considered a candidate species under Endangered Species Act. Careful management is therefore required to ensure that suitable habitat is maintained, particularly because much of the species' current distribution is faced with exurban development pressures. We assessed hierarchical nest site selection patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse inhabiting the western portion of the Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA, at multiple spatial scales, using logistic regression-based resource selection functions. Models were selected using Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AIC c) and predictive surfaces were generated using model averaged relative probabilities. Landscape-scale factors that had the most influence on nest site selection included the proportion of sagebrush cover >5%, mean productivity, and density of 2 wheel-drive roads. The landscape-scale predictive surface captured 97% of known Gunnison sage-grouse nests within the top 5 of 10 prediction bins, implicating 57% of the basin as crucial nesting habitat. Crucial habitat identified by the landscape model was used to define the extent for patch-scale modeling efforts. Patch-scale variables that had the greatest influence on nest site selection were the proportion of big sagebrush cover >10%, distance to residential development, distance to high volume paved roads, and mean productivity. This model accurately predicted independent nest locations. The unique hierarchical structure of our models more accurately captures the nested nature of habitat selection, and allowed for increased discrimination within larger landscapes of suitable habitat. We extrapolated the landscape-scale model to the entire Gunnison Basin because of conservation concerns for this species. We believe this predictive surface is a valuable tool which can be incorporated into land use and conservation planning as well the assessment of future land-use scenarios. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Investigating the Macrodispersion Experiment (MADE) site in Columbus, Mississippi, using a three‐dimensional inverse flow and transport model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen Barlebo , Heidi; Hill, Mary C.; Rosbjerg, Dan

2004-01-01

Flowmeter‐measured hydraulic conductivities from the heterogeneous MADE site have been used predictively in advection‐dispersion models. Resulting simulated concentrations failed to reproduce even major plume characteristics and some have concluded that other mechanisms, such as dual porosity, are important. Here an alternative possibility is investigated: that the small‐scale flowmeter measurements are too noisy and possibly too biased to use so directly in site‐scale models and that the hydraulic head and transport data are more suitable for site‐scale characterization. Using a calibrated finite element model of the site and a new framework to evaluate random and systematic model and measurement errors, the following conclusions are derived. (1) If variations in subsurface fluid velocities like those simulated in this work (0.1 and 2.0 m per day along parallel and reasonably close flow paths) exist, it is likely that classical advection‐dispersion processes can explain the measured plume characteristics. (2) The flowmeter measurements are possibly systematically lower than site‐scale values when the measurements are considered individually and using common averaging methods and display variability that obscures abrupt changes in hydraulic conductivities that are well supported by changes in hydraulic gradients and are important to the simulation of transport.

Productivity benefits of warming at regional scale could be offset by detrimental impacts on site level hydrology.

PubMed

Zeng, Qing; Zhang, Yamian; Wen, Li; Li, Zhaxijie; Duo, Hairui; Lei, Guangchun

2017-11-09

Climate change affects the distribution and persistence of wildlife. Broad scale studies have demonstrated that climate change shifts the geographic ranges and phenology of species. These findings are influential for making high level strategies but not practical enough to guide site specific management. In this study, we explored the environment factors affecting the population of Bar-headed Goose in the key breeding site of Qinghai using generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). Our results showed that 1) there were significant increasing trends in climate variables and river flows to the Qinghai Lake; 2) NDVI in the sites decreased significantly despite the regional positive trend induced by the warmer and wetter climate; 3) NDVI at site scale was negatively correlated to lake water level; and 4) the abundance of Bar-headed Goose decreased significantly at all sites. While the abundance was positively related to NDVI at breeding sites, the GAMM revealed an opposite relationship at foraging areas. Our findings demonstrated the multi-facet effects of climate change on population dynamics; and the effect at global/regional scale could be complicated by site level factors.

Missing Data and Influential Sites: Choice of Sites for Phylogenetic Analysis Can Be As Important As Taxon Sampling and Model Choice

PubMed Central

Shavit Grievink, Liat; Penny, David; Holland, Barbara R.

2013-01-01

Phylogenetic studies based on molecular sequence alignments are expected to become more accurate as the number of sites in the alignments increases. With the advent of genomic-scale data, where alignments have very large numbers of sites, bootstrap values close to 100% and posterior probabilities close to 1 are the norm, suggesting that the number of sites is now seldom a limiting factor on phylogenetic accuracy. This provokes the question, should we be fussy about the sites we choose to include in a genomic-scale phylogenetic analysis? If some sites contain missing data, ambiguous character states, or gaps, then why not just throw them away before conducting the phylogenetic analysis? Indeed, this is exactly the approach taken in many phylogenetic studies. Here, we present an example where the decision on how to treat sites with missing data is of equal importance to decisions on taxon sampling and model choice, and we introduce a graphical method for illustrating this. PMID:23471508

Hydrological and geomorphological controls of malaria transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M. W.; Macklin, M. G.; Thomas, C. J.

2013-01-01

Malaria risk is linked inextricably to the hydrological and geomorphological processes that form vector breeding sites. Yet environmental controls of malaria transmission are often represented by temperature and rainfall amounts, ignoring hydrological and geomorphological influences altogether. Continental-scale studies incorporate hydrology implicitly through simple minimum rainfall thresholds, while community-scale coupled hydrological and entomological models do not represent the actual diversity of the mosquito vector breeding sites. The greatest range of malaria transmission responses to environmental factors is observed at the catchment scale where seemingly contradictory associations between rainfall and malaria risk can be explained by hydrological and geomorphological processes that govern surface water body formation and persistence. This paper extends recent efforts to incorporate ecological factors into malaria-risk models, proposing that the same detailed representation be afforded to hydrological and, at longer timescales relevant for predictions of climate change impacts, geomorphological processes. We review existing representations of environmental controls of malaria and identify a range of hydrologically distinct vector breeding sites from existing literature. We illustrate the potential complexity of interactions among hydrology, geomorphology and vector breeding sites by classifying a range of water bodies observed in a catchment in East Africa. Crucially, the mechanisms driving surface water body formation and destruction must be considered explicitly if we are to produce dynamic spatial models of malaria risk at catchment scales.

Predictors of breeding site occupancy by amphibians in montane landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Groff, Luke A.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; Calhoun, Aram J.K.

2017-01-01

Ecological relationships and processes vary across species’ geographic distributions, life stages and spatial, and temporal scales. Montane landscapes are characterized by low wetland densities, rugged topographies, and cold climates. Consequently, aquatic-dependent and low-vagility ectothermic species (e.g., pool-breeding amphibians) may exhibit unique ecological associations in montane landscapes. We evaluated the relative importance of breeding- and landscape-scale features associated with spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) and wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus) wetland occupancy in Maine's Upper Montane-Alpine Zone ecoregion, and we determined whether models performed better when the inclusive landscape-scale covariates were estimated with topography-weighted or circular buffers. We surveyed 135 potential breeding sites during May 2013–June 2014 and evaluated environmental relationships with multi-season implicit dynamics occupancy models. Breeding site occupancy by both species was influenced solely by breeding-scale habitat features. Spotted salamander occupancy probabilities increased with previous or current beaver (Castor canadensis) presence, and models generally were better supported when the inclusive landscape-scale covariates were estimated with topography-weighted rather than circular buffers. Wood frog occupancy probabilities increased with site area and percent shallows, but neither buffer type was better supported than the other. Model rank order and support varied between buffer types, but model inferences did not. Our results suggest pool-breeding amphibian conservation in montane Maine include measures to maintain beaver populations and large wetlands with proportionally large areas of shallows ≤1-m deep. Inconsistencies between our study and previous studies substantiate the value of region-specific research for augmenting species’ conservation management plans and suggest the application of out-of-region inferences may promote ineffective conservation. 

Comparison of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) to LiDAR for streambank erosion measurement at the site-specific and river network scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamshaw, S. D.; Dewoolkar, M. M.; Rizzo, D.; ONeil-Dunne, J.; Frolik, J.

2016-12-01

Measurement of rates and extent of streambank erosion along river corridors is an important component of many catchment studies and necessary for engineering projects such as river restoration, hazard assessment, and total maximum daily load (TMDL) development. A variety of methods have been developed to quantify streambank erosion, including bank pins, ground surveys, photogrammetry, LiDAR, and analytical models. However, these methods are not only resource intensive, but many are feasible and appropriate only for site-specific studies and not practical for erosion estimates at larger scales. Recent advancements in unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and photogrammetry software provide capabilities for more rapid and economical quantification of streambank erosion and deposition at multiple scales (from site-specific to river network). At the site-specific scale, the capability of UAS to quantify streambank erosion was compared to terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and RTK-GPS ground survey and assessed at seven streambank monitoring sites in central Vermont. Across all sites, the UAS-derived bank topography had mean errors of 0.21 m compared to TLS and GPS data. Highest accuracies were achieved in early spring conditions where mean errors approached 10 cm. The cross sectional area of bank erosion at a typical, vegetated streambank site was found to be reliably calculated within 10% of actual for erosion areas greater than 3.5 m2. At the river network-level scale, 20 km of river corridor along the New Haven, Winooski, and Mad Rivers was flown on multiple dates with UAS and used to generate digital elevation models (DEMs) that were then compared for change detection analysis. Airborne LiDAR data collected prior to UAS surveys was also compared to UAS data to determine multi-year rates of bank erosion. UAS-based photogrammetry for generation of fine scale topographic data shows promise for the monitoring of streambank erosion both at the individual site scale and river-network scale in areas that are not densely covered with vegetation year-round.

Linking Meteorology, Air Quality Models and Observations to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Epidemiologic studies are critical in establishing the association between exposure to air pollutants and adverse health effects. Results of epidemiologic studies are used by U.S. EPA in developing air quality standards to protect the public from the health effects of air pollutants. A major challenge in environmental epidemiology is adequate exposure characterization. Numerous health studies have used measurements from a few central-site ambient monitors to characterize air pollution exposures. Relying solely on central-site ambient monitors does not account for the spatial-heterogeneity of ambient air pollution patterns, the temporal variability in ambient concentrations, nor the influence of infiltration and indoor sources. Central-site monitoring becomes even more problematic for certain air pollutants that exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity. Statistical interpolation techniques and passive monitoring methods can provide additional spatial resolution in ambient concentration estimates. In addition, spatio-temporal models, which integrate GIS data and other factors, such as meteorology, have also been developed to produce more resolved estimates of ambient concentrations. Models, such as the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, estimate ambient concentrations by combining information on meteorology, source emissions, and chemical-fate and transport. Hybrid modeling approaches, which integrate regional scale models with local scale dispersion

Improving predictions of large scale soil carbon dynamics: Integration of fine-scale hydrological and biogeochemical processes, scaling, and benchmarking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Dwivedi, D.; Ghimire, B.; Hoffman, F. M.; Pau, G. S. H.; Randerson, J. T.; Shen, C.; Tang, J.; Zhu, Q.

2015-12-01

Numerical model representations of decadal- to centennial-scale soil-carbon dynamics are a dominant cause of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Recent attempts by some Earth System Model (ESM) teams to integrate previously unrepresented soil processes (e.g., explicit microbial processes, abiotic interactions with mineral surfaces, vertical transport), poor performance of many ESM land models against large-scale and experimental manipulation observations, and complexities associated with spatial heterogeneity highlight the nascent nature of our community's ability to accurately predict future soil carbon dynamics. I will present recent work from our group to develop a modeling framework to integrate pore-, column-, watershed-, and global-scale soil process representations into an ESM (ACME), and apply the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for evaluation. At the column scale and across a wide range of sites, observed depth-resolved carbon stocks and their 14C derived turnover times can be explained by a model with explicit representation of two microbial populations, a simple representation of mineralogy, and vertical transport. Integrating soil and plant dynamics requires a 'process-scaling' approach, since all aspects of the multi-nutrient system cannot be explicitly resolved at ESM scales. I will show that one approach, the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation, improves predictions of forest nitrogen and phosphorus experimental manipulations and leads to very different global soil carbon predictions. Translating model representations from the site- to ESM-scale requires a spatial scaling approach that either explicitly resolves the relevant processes, or more practically, accounts for fine-resolution dynamics at coarser scales. To that end, I will present recent watershed-scale modeling work that applies reduced order model methods to accurately scale fine-resolution soil carbon dynamics to coarse-resolution simulations. Finally, we contend that creating believable soil carbon predictions requires a robust, transparent, and community-available benchmarking framework. I will present an ILAMB evaluation of several of the above-mentioned approaches in ACME, and attempt to motivate community adoption of this evaluation approach.

The relative influence of geographic location and reach-scale habitat on benthic invertebrate assemblages in six ecoregions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munn, M.D.; Waite, I.R.; Larsen, D.P.; Herlihy, A.T.

2009-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine the relative influence of reach-specific habitat variables and geographic location on benthic invertebrate assemblages within six ecoregions across the Western USA. This study included 417 sites from six ecoregions. A total of 301 taxa were collected with the highest richness associated with ecoregions dominated by streams with coarse substrate (19-29 taxa per site). Lowest richness (seven to eight taxa per site) was associated with ecoregions dominated by fine-grain substrate. Principle component analysis (PCA) on reach-scale habitat separated the six ecoregions into those in high-gradient mountainous areas (Coast Range, Cascades, and Southern Rockies) and those in lower-gradient ecoregions (Central Great Plains and Central California Valley). Nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) models performed best in ecoregions dominated by coarse-grain substrate and high taxa richness, along with coarse-grain substrates sites combined from multiple ecoregions regardless of location. In contrast, ecoregions or site combinations dominated by fine-grain substrate had poor model performance (high stress). Four NMS models showed that geographic location (i.e. latitude and longitude) was important for: (1) all ecoregions combined, (2) all sites dominated by coarse-grain sub strate combined, (3) Cascades Ecoregion, and (4) Columbia Ecoregion. Local factors (i.e. substrate or water temperature) seem to be overriding factors controlling invertebrate composition across the West, regardless of geographic location. ?? The Author(s) 2008.

Uncertainties of Large-Scale Forcing Caused by Surface Turbulence Flux Measurements and the Impacts on Cloud Simulations at the ARM SGP Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, S.; Xie, S.; Tang, Q.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

Two types of instruments, the eddy correlation flux measurement system (ECOR) and the energy balance Bowen ratio system (EBBR), are used at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to measure surface latent and sensible fluxes. ECOR and EBBR typically sample different land surface types, and the domain-mean surface fluxes derived from ECOR and EBBR are not always consistent. The uncertainties of the surface fluxes will have impacts on the derived large-scale forcing data and further affect the simulations of single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM) and large-eddy simulation models (LES), especially for the shallow-cumulus clouds which are mainly driven by surface forcing. This study aims to quantify the uncertainties of the large-scale forcing caused by surface turbulence flux measurements and investigate the impacts on cloud simulations using long-term observations from the ARM SGP site.

Modelling temporal and large-scale spatial variability of soil respiration from soil water availability, temperature and vegetation productivity indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichstein, M.; Rey, A.; Freibauer, A.; Tenhunen, J.; Valentini, R.; Soil Respiration Synthesis Team

2003-04-01

Field-chamber measurements of soil respiration from 17 different forest and shrubland sites in Europe and North America were summarized and analyzed with the goal to develop a model describing seasonal, inter-annual and spatial variability of soil respiration as affected by water availability, temperature and site properties. The analysis was performed at a daily and at a monthly time step. With the daily time step, the relative soil water content in the upper soil layer expressed as a fraction of field capacity was a good predictor of soil respiration at all sites. Among the site variables tested, those related to site productivity (e.g. leaf area index) correlated significantly with soil respiration, while carbon pool variables like standing biomass or the litter and soil carbon stocks did not show a clear relationship with soil respiration. Furthermore, it was evidenced that the effect of precipitation on soil respiration stretched beyond its direct effect via soil moisture. A general statistical non-linear regression model was developed to describe soil respiration as dependent on soil temperature, soil water content and site-specific maximum leaf area index. The model explained nearly two thirds of the temporal and inter-site variability of soil respiration with a mean absolute error of 0.82 µmol m-2 s-1. The parameterised model exhibits the following principal properties: 1) At a relative amount of upper-layer soil water of 16% of field capacity half-maximal soil respiration rates are reached. 2) The apparent temperature sensitivity of soil respiration measured as Q10 varies between 1 and 5 depending on soil temperature and water content. 3) Soil respiration under reference moisture and temperature conditions is linearly related to maximum site leaf area index. At a monthly time-scale we employed the approach by Raich et al. (2002, Global Change Biol. 8, 800-812) that used monthly precipitation and air temperature to globally predict soil respiration (T&P-model). While this model was able to explain some of the month-to-month variability of soil respiration, it failed to capture the inter-site variability, regardless whether the original or a new optimized model parameterization was used. In both cases, the residuals were strongly related to maximum site leaf area index. Thus, for a monthly time scale we developed a simple T&P&LAI-model that includes leaf area index as an additional predictor of soil respiration. This extended but still simple model performed nearly as well as the more detailed time-step model and explained 50 % of the overall and 65% of the site-to-site variability. Consequently, better estimates of globally distributed soil respiration should be obtained with the new model driven by satellite estimates of leaf area index.

Project M: Scale Model of Lunar Landing Site of Apollo 17

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Brien, Hollie; Crain, Timothy P.

2010-01-01

The basis of the project was creating a scale model representation of the Apollo 17 lunar landing site. Vital components included surface slope characteristics, crater sizes and locations, prominent rocks, and lighting conditions. The model was made for Project M support when evaluating approach and terminal descent as well as when planning surface operations with respect to the terrain. The project had five main mi lestones during the length of the project. The first was examining the best method to use to re-create the Apollo 17 landing site and then reviewing research fmdings with Dr. Tim Crain and EO staff which occurred on June 25, 2010 at a meeting. The second step was formulating a construction plan, budget, and schedule and then presenting the plan for authority to proceed which occurred on July 6,2010. The third part was building a prototype to test materials and building processes which were completed by July 13, 2010. Next was assembling the landing site model and presenting a mid-term construction status report on July 29, 2010. The fifth and final milestone was demonstrating the model and presenting an exit pitch which happened on August 4, 2010. The project was very technical: it needed a lot of research about moon topography, lighting conditions and angles of the sun on the moon, Apollo 17, and Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT), before starting the actual building process. This required using Spreadsheets, searching internet sources and conducting personal meetings with project representatives. This information assisted the interns in deciding the scale of the model with respect to cracks, craters and rocks and their relative sizes as the objects mentioned could interfere with any of the Lunar Landers: Apollo, Project M and future Landers. The project concluded with the completion of a three dimensional scale model of the Apollo 17 Lunar landing site. This model assists Project M members because they can now visualize approach phase, terminal descent phase, and surface phase operations on the physical model. The project had an additional requirement that was also satisfied: the granite table the model was placed on must be returnable to its original condition if needed in the future.

The role of physical habitat and sampling effort on estimates of benthic macroinvertebrate taxonomic richness at basin and site scales.

PubMed

Silva, Déborah R O; Ligeiro, Raphael; Hughes, Robert M; Callisto, Marcos

2016-06-01

Taxonomic richness is one of the most important measures of biological diversity in ecological studies, including those with stream macroinvertebrates. However, it is impractical to measure the true richness of any site directly by sampling. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of sampling effort on estimates of macroinvertebrate family and Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) genera richness at two scales: basin and stream site. In addition, we tried to determine which environmental factors at the site scale most influenced the amount of sampling effort needed. We sampled 39 sites in the Cerrado biome (neotropical savanna). In each site, we obtained 11 equidistant samples of the benthic assemblage and multiple physical habitat measurements. The observed basin-scale richness achieved a consistent estimation from Chao 1, Jack 1, and Jack 2 richness estimators. However, at the site scale, there was a constant increase in the observed number of taxa with increased number of samples. Models that best explained the slope of site-scale sampling curves (representing the necessity of greater sampling effort) included metrics that describe habitat heterogeneity, habitat structure, anthropogenic disturbance, and water quality, for both macroinvertebrate family and EPT genera richness. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering basin- and site-scale sampling effort in ecological surveys and that taxa accumulation curves and richness estimators are good tools for assessing sampling efficiency. The physical habitat explained a significant amount of the sampling effort needed. Therefore, future studies should explore the possible implications of physical habitat characteristics when developing sampling objectives, study designs, and calculating the needed sampling effort.

The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, M. A.

2016-12-01

The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM) is a process-based model that was designed to address rangelands conditions. RHEM is designed for government agencies, land managers and conservationists who need sound, science-based technology to model, assess, and predict runoff and erosion rates on rangelands and to assist in evaluating rangeland conservation practices effects. RHEM is an event-based model that estimates runoff, erosion, and sediment delivery rates and volumes at the spatial scale of the hillslope and the temporal scale of as single rainfall event. It represents erosion processes under normal and fire-impacted rangeland conditions. Moreover, it adopts a new splash erosion and thin sheet-flow transport equation developed from rangeland data, and it links the model hydrologic and erosion parameters with rangeland plant community by providing a new system of parameter estimation equations based on 204 plots at 49 rangeland sites distributed across 15 western U.S. states. A dynamic partial differential sediment continuity equation is used to model the total detachment rate of concentrated flow and rain splash and sheet flow. RHEM is also designed to be used as a calculator, or "engine", within other watershed scale models. From the research perspective RHEM acts as a vehicle for incorporating new scientific findings from rangeland infiltration, runoff, and erosion studies. Current applications of the model include: 1) a web site for general use (conservation planning, research, etc.), 2) National Resource Inventory reports to Congress, 3) as a computational engine within watershed scale models (e.g., KINEROS, HEC), 4) Ecological Site & State and Transition Descriptions, 5) proposed in 2015 to become part of the NRCS Desktop applications for field offices.

Evaluating the performance of different predictor strategies in regression-based downscaling with a focus on glacierized mountain environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofer, Marlis; Nemec, Johanna

2016-04-01

This study presents first steps towards verifying the hypothesis that uncertainty in global and regional glacier mass simulations can be reduced considerably by reducing the uncertainty in the high-resolution atmospheric input data. To this aim, we systematically explore the potential of different predictor strategies for improving the performance of regression-based downscaling approaches. The investigated local-scale target variables are precipitation, air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and global radiation, all at a daily time scale. Observations of these target variables are assessed from three sites in geo-environmentally and climatologically very distinct settings, all within highly complex topography and in the close proximity to mountain glaciers: (1) the Vernagtbach station in the Northern European Alps (VERNAGT), (2) the Artesonraju measuring site in the tropical South American Andes (ARTESON), and (3) the Brewster measuring site in the Southern Alps of New Zealand (BREWSTER). As the large-scale predictors, ERA interim reanalysis data are used. In the applied downscaling model training and evaluation procedures, particular emphasis is put on appropriately accounting for the pitfalls of limited and/or patchy observation records that are usually the only (if at all) available data from the glacierized mountain sites. Generalized linear models and beta regression are investigated as alternatives to ordinary least squares regression for the non-Gaussian target variables. By analyzing results for the three different sites, five predictands and for different times of the year, we look for systematic improvements in the downscaling models' skill specifically obtained by (i) using predictor data at the optimum scale rather than the minimum scale of the reanalysis data, (ii) identifying the optimum predictor allocation in the vertical, and (iii) considering multiple (variable, level and/or grid point) predictor options combined with state-of-art empirical feature selection tools. First results show that in particular for air temperature, those downscaling models based on direct predictor selection show comparative skill like those models based on multiple predictors. For all other target variables, however, multiple predictor approaches can considerably outperform those models based on single predictors. Including multiple variable types emerges as the most promising predictor option (in particular for wind speed at all sites), even if the same predictor set is used across the different cases.

Understanding CO2 Plume Behavior and Basin-Scale Pressure Changes during Sequestration Projects through the use of Reservoir Fluid Modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leetaru, H.E.; Frailey, S.M.; Damico, J.; Mehnert, E.; Birkholzer, J.; Zhou, Q.; Jordan, P.D.

2009-01-01

Large scale geologic sequestration tests are in the planning stages around the world. The liability and safety issues of the migration of CO2 away from the primary injection site and/or reservoir are of significant concerns for these sequestration tests. Reservoir models for simulating single or multi-phase fluid flow are used to understand the migration of CO2 in the subsurface. These models can also help evaluate concerns related to brine migration and basin-scale pressure increases that occur due to the injection of additional fluid volumes into the subsurface. The current paper presents different modeling examples addressing these issues, ranging from simple geometric models to more complex reservoir fluid models with single-site and basin-scale applications. Simple geometric models assuming a homogeneous geologic reservoir and piston-like displacement have been used for understanding pressure changes and fluid migration around each CO2 storage site. These geometric models are useful only as broad approximations because they do not account for the variation in porosity, permeability, asymmetry of the reservoir, and dip of the beds. In addition, these simple models are not capable of predicting the interference between different injection sites within the same reservoir. A more realistic model of CO2 plume behavior can be produced using reservoir fluid models. Reservoir simulation of natural gas storage reservoirs in the Illinois Basin Cambrian-age Mt. Simon Sandstone suggest that reservoir heterogeneity will be an important factor for evaluating storage capacity. The Mt. Simon Sandstone is a thick sandstone that underlies many significant coal fired power plants (emitting at least 1 million tonnes per year) in the midwestern United States including the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, and Ohio. The initial commercial sequestration sites are expected to inject 1 to 2 million tonnes of CO2 per year. Depending on the geologic structure and permeability anisotropy, the CO2 injected into the Mt. Simon are expected to migrate less than 3 km. After 30 years of continuous injection followed by 100 years of shut-in, the plume from a 1 million tonnes a year injection rate is expected to migrate 1.6 km for a 0 degree dip reservoir and over 3 km for a 5 degree dip reservoir. The region where reservoir pressure increases in response to CO2 injection is typically much larger than the CO2 plume. It can thus be anticipated that there will be basin wide interactions between different CO2 injection sources if multiple, large volume sites are developed. This interaction will result in asymmetric plume migration that may be contrary to reservoir dip. A basin- scale simulation model is being developed to predict CO2 plume migration, brine displacement, and pressure buildup for a possible future sequestration scenario featuring multiple CO2 storage sites within the Illinois Basin Mt. Simon Sandstone. Interactions between different sites will be evaluated with respect to impacts on pressure and CO2 plume migration patterns. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement and prediction of post-fire erosion at the hillslope scale, Colorado Front Range

Treesearch

Juan de Dios Benavides-Solorio; Lee H. MacDonald

2005-01-01

Post-fire soil erosion is of considerable concern because of the potential decline in site productivity and adverse effects on downstream resources. For the Colorado Front Range there is a paucity of post-fire erosion data and a corresponding lack of predictive models. This study measured hillslope-scale sediment production rates and site characteristics for three wild...

Model for teaching population health and community-based care across diverse clinical experiences.

PubMed

Van Dyk, Elizabeth J; Valentine-Maher, Sarah K; Tracy, Janet P

2015-02-01

The pillars constructivist model is designed to offer a unifying clinical paradigm to support consistent learning opportunities across diverse configurations of community and public health clinical sites. Thirty-six students and six faculty members participated in a mixed methods evaluation to assess the model after its inaugural semester of implementation. The evaluation methods included a rating scale that measures the model's ability to provide consistent learning opportunities at both population health and direct care sites, a case study to measure student growth within the five conceptual pillars, and a faculty focus group. Results revealed that the model served as an effective means of clinical education to support the use of multiple, small-scale public health sites. Although measurements of student growth within the pillars are inconclusive, the findings suggest efficacy. The authors recommend the continued use of the pillars constructivist model in baccalaureate programs, with further study of the author-designed evaluation tools. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

A potential-energy scaling model to simulate the initial stages of thin-film growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heinbockel, J. H.; Outlaw, R. A.; Walker, G. H.

1983-01-01

A solid on solid (SOS) Monte Carlo computer simulation employing a potential energy scaling technique was used to model the initial stages of thin film growth. The model monitors variations in the vertical interaction potential that occur due to the arrival or departure of selected adatoms or impurities at all sites in the 400 sq. ft. array. Boltzmann ordered statistics are used to simulate fluctuations in vibrational energy at each site in the array, and the resulting site energy is compared with threshold levels of possible atomic events. In addition to adsorption, desorption, and surface migration, adatom incorporation and diffusion of a substrate atom to the surface are also included. The lateral interaction of nearest, second nearest, and third nearest neighbors is also considered. A series of computer experiments are conducted to illustrate the behavior of the model.

Multi-scale habitat selection in highly territorial bird species: Exploring the contribution of nest, territory and landscape levels to site choice in breeding rallids (Aves: Rallidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jedlikowski, Jan; Chibowski, Piotr; Karasek, Tomasz; Brambilla, Mattia

2016-05-01

Habitat selection often involves choices made at different spatial scales, but the underlying mechanisms are still poorly understood, and studies that investigate the relative importance of individual scales are rare. We investigated the effect of three spatial scales (landscape, territory, nest-site) on the occurrence pattern of little crake Zapornia parva and water rail Rallus aquaticus at 74 ponds in the Masurian Lakeland, Poland. Habitat structure, food abundance and water chemical parameters were measured at nests and random points within landscape plots (from 300-m to 50-m radius), territory (14-m) and nest-site plots (3-m). Regression analyses suggested that the most relevant scale was territory level, followed by landscape, and finally by nest-site for both species. Variation partitioning confirmed this pattern for water rail, but also highlighted the importance of nest-site (the level explaining the highest share of unique variation) for little crake. The most important variables determining the occurrence of both species were water body fragmentation (landscape), vegetation density (territory) and water depth (at territory level for little crake, and at nest-site level for water rail). Finally, for both species multi-scale models including factors from different levels were more parsimonious than single-scale ones, i.e. habitat selection was likely a multi-scale process. The importance of particular spatial scales seemed more related to life-history traits than to the extent of the scales considered. In the case of our study species, the territory level was highly important likely because both rallids have to obtain all the resources they need (nest site, food and mates) in relatively small areas, the multi-purpose territories they defend.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pau, G. S. H.; Bisht, G.; Riley, W. J.

Existing land surface models (LSMs) describe physical and biological processes that occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. For example, biogeochemical and hydrological processes responsible for carbon (CO 2, CH 4) exchanges with the atmosphere range from the molecular scale (pore-scale O 2 consumption) to tens of kilometers (vegetation distribution, river networks). Additionally, many processes within LSMs are nonlinearly coupled (e.g., methane production and soil moisture dynamics), and therefore simple linear upscaling techniques can result in large prediction error. In this paper we applied a reduced-order modeling (ROM) technique known as "proper orthogonal decomposition mapping method" thatmore » reconstructs temporally resolved fine-resolution solutions based on coarse-resolution solutions. We developed four different methods and applied them to four study sites in a polygonal tundra landscape near Barrow, Alaska. Coupled surface–subsurface isothermal simulations were performed for summer months (June–September) at fine (0.25 m) and coarse (8 m) horizontal resolutions. We used simulation results from three summer seasons (1998–2000) to build ROMs of the 4-D soil moisture field for the study sites individually (single-site) and aggregated (multi-site). The results indicate that the ROM produced a significant computational speedup (> 10 3) with very small relative approximation error (< 0.1%) for 2 validation years not used in training the ROM. We also demonstrate that our approach: (1) efficiently corrects for coarse-resolution model bias and (2) can be used for polygonal tundra sites not included in the training data set with relatively good accuracy (< 1.7% relative error), thereby allowing for the possibility of applying these ROMs across a much larger landscape. By coupling the ROMs constructed at different scales together hierarchically, this method has the potential to efficiently increase the resolution of land models for coupled climate simulations to spatial scales consistent with mechanistic physical process representation.« less

Scaling-Relation-Based Analysis of Bifunctional Catalysis: The Case for Homogeneous Bimetallic Alloys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andersen, Mie; Medford, Andrew J.; Norskov, Jens K.

Here, we present a generic analysis of the implications of energetic scaling relations on the possibilities for bifunctional gains at homogeneous bimetallic alloy catalysts. Such catalysts exhibit a large number of interface sites, where second-order reaction steps can involve intermediates adsorbed at different active sites. Using different types of model reaction schemes, we show that such site-coupling reaction steps can provide bifunctional gains that allow for a bimetallic catalyst composed of two individually poor catalyst materials to approach the activity of the optimal monomaterial catalyst. However, bifunctional gains cannot result in activities higher than the activity peak of the monomaterialmore » volcano curve as long as both sites obey similar scaling relations, as is generally the case for bimetallic catalysts. These scaling-relation-imposed limitations could be overcome by combining different classes of materials such as metals and oxides.« less

Scaling-Relation-Based Analysis of Bifunctional Catalysis: The Case for Homogeneous Bimetallic Alloys

DOE PAGES

Andersen, Mie; Medford, Andrew J.; Norskov, Jens K.; ...

2017-04-14

Here, we present a generic analysis of the implications of energetic scaling relations on the possibilities for bifunctional gains at homogeneous bimetallic alloy catalysts. Such catalysts exhibit a large number of interface sites, where second-order reaction steps can involve intermediates adsorbed at different active sites. Using different types of model reaction schemes, we show that such site-coupling reaction steps can provide bifunctional gains that allow for a bimetallic catalyst composed of two individually poor catalyst materials to approach the activity of the optimal monomaterial catalyst. However, bifunctional gains cannot result in activities higher than the activity peak of the monomaterialmore » volcano curve as long as both sites obey similar scaling relations, as is generally the case for bimetallic catalysts. These scaling-relation-imposed limitations could be overcome by combining different classes of materials such as metals and oxides.« less

The acid-base titration of montmorillonite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourg, I. C.; Sposito, G.; Bourg, A. C.

2003-12-01

Proton binding to clay minerals plays an important role in the chemical reactivity of soils (e.g., acidification, retention of nutrients or pollutants). If should also affect the performance of clay barriers for waste disposal. The surface acidity of clay minerals is commonly modelled empirically by assuming generic amphoteric surface sites (>SOH) on a flat surface, with fitted site densities and acidity constant. Current advances in experimental methods (notably spectroscopy) are rapidly improving our understanding of the structure and reactivity of the surface of clay minerals (arrangement of the particles, nature of the reactive surface sites, adsorption mechanisms). These developments are motivated by the difficulty of modelling the surface chemistry of mineral surfaces at the macro-scale (e.g., adsorption or titration) without a detailed (molecular-scale) picture of the mechanisms, and should be progressively incorporated into surface complexation models. In this view, we have combined recent estimates of montmorillonite surface properties (surface site density and structure, edge surface area, surface electrostatic potential) with surface site acidities obtained from the titration of alpha-Al2O3 and SiO2, and a novel method of accounting for the unknown initial net proton surface charge of the solid. The model predictions were compared to experimental titrations of SWy-1 montmorillonite and purified MX-80 bentonite in 0.1-0.5 mol/L NaClO4 and 0.005-0.5 mol/L NaNO3 background electrolytes, respectively. Most of the experimental data were appropriately described by the model after we adjusted a single parameter (silanol sites on the surface of montmorillonite were made to be slightly more acidic than those of silica). At low ionic strength and acidic pH the model underestimated the buffering capacity of the montmorillonite, perhaps due to clay swelling or to the interlayer adsorption of dissolved aluminum. The agreement between our model and the experimental data illustrates the complementarity of molecular and macro-scale descriptions of the clay reactivity.

Multiscale site-response mapping: A case study of Parkfield, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, E.M.; Baise, L.G.; Kayen, R.E.; Morgan, E.C.; Kaklamanos, J.

2011-01-01

The scale of previously proposed methods for mapping site-response ranges from global coverage down to individual urban regions. Typically, spatial coverage and accuracy are inversely related.We use the densely spaced strong-motion stations in Parkfield, California, to estimate the accuracy of different site-response mapping methods and demonstrate a method for integrating multiple site-response estimates from the site to the global scale. This method is simply a weighted mean of a suite of different estimates, where the weights are the inverse of the variance of the individual estimates. Thus, the dominant site-response model varies in space as a function of the accuracy of the different models. For mapping applications, site-response models should be judged in terms of both spatial coverage and the degree of correlation with observed amplifications. Performance varies with period, but in general the Parkfield data show that: (1) where a velocity profile is available, the square-rootof- impedance (SRI) method outperforms the measured VS30 (30 m divided by the S-wave travel time to 30 m depth) and (2) where velocity profiles are unavailable, the topographic slope method outperforms surficial geology for short periods, but geology outperforms slope at longer periods. We develop new equations to estimate site response from topographic slope, derived from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) database.

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display in Germany

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-03-10

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display. A full-scale model of the James Webb Space Telescope was built by the prime contractor, Northrop Grumman, to provide a better understanding of the size, scale and complexity of this satellite. The model is constructed mainly of aluminum and steel, weighs 12,000 lb., and is approximately 80 feet long, 40 feet wide and 40 feet tall. The model requires 2 trucks to ship it and assembly takes a crew of 12 approximately four days. This model has travelled to a few sites since 2005. The photographs below were taken at some of its destinations. The model is pictured here in Munich, Germany Credit: EADS Astrium

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display in Germany

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display. A full-scale model of the James Webb Space Telescope was built by the prime contractor, Northrop Grumman, to provide a better understanding of the size, scale and complexity of this satellite. The model is constructed mainly of aluminum and steel, weighs 12,000 lb., and is approximately 80 feet long, 40 feet wide and 40 feet tall. The model requires 2 trucks to ship it and assembly takes a crew of 12 approximately four days. This model has travelled to a few sites since 2005. The photographs below were taken at some of its destinations. The model is pictured here in Munich, Germany Credit: EADS Astrium

Harbour porpoise distribution can vary at small spatiotemporal scales in energetic habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjamins, Steven; van Geel, Nienke; Hastie, Gordon; Elliott, Jim; Wilson, Ben

2017-07-01

Marine habitat heterogeneity underpins species distribution and can be generated through interactions between physical and biological drivers at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) is used worldwide to study potential impacts of marine industrial activities on cetaceans, but understanding of animals' site use at small spatiotemporal scales (<1 km, <1 day) remains limited. Small-scale variability in vocalising harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) distribution within two Scottish marine renewable energy development (MRED) sites was investigated by deploying dense arrays of C-POD passive acoustic detectors at a wave energy test site (the European Marine Energy Centre [Billia Croo, Orkney]) and by a minor tidal-stream site (Scarba [Inner Hebrides]). Respective arrays consisted of 7 and 11 moorings containing two C-PODs each and were deployed for up to 55 days. Minimum inter-mooring distances varied between 300-600 m. All C-POD data were analysed at a temporal resolution of whole minutes, with each minute classified as 1 or 0 on the basis of presence/absence of porpoise click trains (Porpoise-Positive Minutes/PPMs). Porpoise detection rates were analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) with Generalised Estimation Equations (GEEs). Although there were many porpoise detections (wave test site: N=3,432; tidal-stream site: N=17,366), daily detection rates varied significantly within both arrays. Within the wave site array (<1 km diameter), average daily detection rates varied from 4.3 to 14.8 PPMs/day. Within the tidal-stream array (<2 km diameter), average daily detection rates varied from 10.3 to 49.7 PPMs/day. GAM-GEE model results for individual moorings within both arrays indicated linkages between porpoise presence and small-scale heterogeneity among different environmental covariates (e.g., tidal phase, time of day). Porpoise detection rates varied considerably but with coherent patterns between moorings only several hundred metres apart and within hours. These patterns presumably have ecological relevance. These results indicate that, in energetically active and heterogeneous areas, porpoises can display significant spatiotemporal variability in site use at scales of hundreds of metres and hours. Such variability will not be identified when using solitary moored PAM detectors (a common practice for site-based cetacean monitoring), but may be highly relevant for site-based impact assessments of MRED and other coastal developments. PAM arrays encompassing several detectors spread across a site therefore appear to be a more appropriate tool to study site-specific cetacean use of spatiotemporally heterogeneous habitat and assess the potential impacts of coastal and nearshore developments at small scales.

A model to predict stream water temperature across the conterminous USA

Treesearch

Catalina Segura; Peter Caldwell; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty; Yang Zhang

2014-01-01

Stream water temperature (ts) is a critical water quality parameter for aquatic ecosystems. However, ts records are sparse or nonexistent in many river systems. In this work, we present an empirical model to predict ts at the site scale across the USA. The model, derived using data from 171 reference sites selected from the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating...

Spatiotemporal Variability of Turbulence Kinetic Energy Budgets in the Convective Boundary Layer over Both Simple and Complex Terrain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rai, Raj K.; Berg, Larry K.; Pekour, Mikhail

The assumption of sub-grid scale (SGS) horizontal homogeneity within a model grid cell, which forms the basis of SGS turbulence closures used by mesoscale models, becomes increasingly tenuous as grid spacing is reduced to a few kilometers or less, such as in many emerging high-resolution applications. Herein, we use the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) budget equation to study the spatio-temporal variability in two types of terrain—complex (Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study [CBWES] site, north-eastern Oregon) and flat (ScaledWind Farm Technologies [SWiFT] site, west Texas) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In each case six-nested domains (three domains eachmore » for mesoscale and large-eddy simulation [LES]) are used to downscale the horizontal grid spacing from 10 km to 10 m using the WRF model framework. The model output was used to calculate the values of the TKE budget terms in vertical and horizontal planes as well as the averages of grid cells contained in the four quadrants (a quarter area) of the LES domain. The budget terms calculated along the planes and the mean profile of budget terms show larger spatial variability at CBWES site than at the SWiFT site. The contribution of the horizontal derivative of the shear production term to the total production shear was found to be 45% and 15% of the total shear, at the CBWES and SWiFT sites, respectively, indicating that the horizontal derivatives applied in the budget equation should not be ignored in mesoscale model parameterizations, especially for cases with complex terrain with <10 km scale.« less

Three-dimensional geological modelling of anthropogenic deposits at small urban sites: a case study from Sheepcote Valley, Brighton, UK.

PubMed

Tame, C; Cundy, A B; Royse, K R; Smith, M; Moles, N R

2013-11-15

Improvements in computing speed and capacity and the increasing collection and digitisation of geological data now allow geoscientists to produce meaningful 3D spatial models of the shallow subsurface in many large urban areas, to predict ground conditions and reduce risk and uncertainty in urban planning. It is not yet clear how useful this 3D modelling approach is at smaller urban scales, where poorly characterised anthropogenic deposits (artificial/made ground and fill) form the dominant subsurface material and where the availability of borehole and other geological data is less comprehensive. This is important as it is these smaller urban sites, with complex site history, which frequently form the focus of urban regeneration and redevelopment schemes. This paper examines the extent to which the 3D modelling approach previously utilised at large urban scales can be extended to smaller less well-characterised urban sites, using a historic landfill site in Sheepcote Valley, Brighton, UK as a case study. Two 3D models were generated and compared using GSI3D™ software, one using borehole data only, one combining borehole data with local geological maps and results from a desk study (involving collation of available site data, including ground contour plans). These models clearly delimit the overall subsurface geology at the site, and allow visualisation and modelling of the anthropogenic deposits present. Shallow geophysical data collected from the site partially validate the 3D modelled data, and can improve GSI3D™ outputs where boundaries of anthropogenic deposits may not be clearly defined by surface, contour or borehole data. Attribution of geotechnical and geochemical properties to the 3D model is problematic without intrusive investigations and sampling. However, combining available borehole data, shallow geophysical methods and site histories may allow attribution of generic fill properties, and consequent reduction of urban development risk and uncertainty. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Predicting Model of E-commerce Site Based on the Ideas of Curve Fitting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Zhang; Li, Zhang; Dingjun, Chen

On the basis of the idea of the second multiplication curve fitting, the number and scale of Chinese E-commerce site is analyzed. A preventing increase model is introduced in this paper, and the model parameters are solved by the software of Matlab. The validity of the preventing increase model is confirmed though the numerical experiment. The experimental results show that the precision of preventing increase model is ideal.

Watershed modeling at the Savannah River Site.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vache, Kellie

2015-04-29

The overall goal of the work was the development of a watershed scale model of hydrological function for application to the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). The primary outcomes is a grid based hydrological modeling system that captures near surface runoff as well as groundwater recharge and contributions of groundwater to streams. The model includes a physically-based algorithm to capture both evaporation and transpiration from forestland.

Is site-specific APEX calibration necessary for field scale BMP assessment?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The possibility of extending parameter sets obtained at one site to sites with similar characteristics is appealing. This study was undertaken to test model performance and compare the effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs) using three parameters sets obtained from three watersheds when a...

GPCC - A weather generator-based statistical downscaling tool for site-specific assessment of climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Resolution of climate model outputs are too coarse to be used as direct inputs to impact models for assessing climate change impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and eco-system services at local or site-specific scales. Statistical downscaling approaches are usually used to bridge th...

Geological modeling of submeter scale heterogeneity and its influence on tracer transport in a fluvial aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronayne, Michael J.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Zheng, Chunmiao

2010-10-01

We developed a new model of aquifer heterogeneity to analyze data from a single-well injection-withdrawal tracer test conducted at the Macrodispersion Experiment (MADE) site on the Columbus Air Force Base in Mississippi (USA). The physical heterogeneity model is a hybrid that combines 3-D lithofacies to represent submeter scale, highly connected channels within a background matrix based on a correlated multivariate Gaussian hydraulic conductivity field. The modeled aquifer architecture is informed by a variety of field data, including geologic core sampling. Geostatistical properties of this hybrid heterogeneity model are consistent with the statistics of the hydraulic conductivity data set based on extensive borehole flowmeter testing at the MADE site. The representation of detailed, small-scale geologic heterogeneity allows for explicit simulation of local preferential flow and slow advection, processes that explain the complex tracer response from the injection-withdrawal test. Based on the new heterogeneity model, advective-dispersive transport reproduces key characteristics of the observed tracer recovery curve, including a delayed concentration peak and a low-concentration tail. Importantly, our results suggest that intrafacies heterogeneity is responsible for local-scale mass transfer.

Understanding Hydraulic Fracturing: A Multi-Scale Problem

DOE PAGES

Hyman, Jeffrey De'Haven; Gimenez Martinez, Joaquin; Viswanathan, Hari S.; ...

2016-09-05

Despite the impact that hydraulic fracturing has had on the energy sector, the physical mechanisms that control its efficiency and environmental impacts remain poorly understood in part because the length scales involved range from nano-meters to kilo-meters. We characterize flow and transport in shale formations across and between these scales using integrated computational, theoretical, and experimental efforts. At the field scale, we use discrete fracture network modeling to simulate production at a well site whose fracture network is based on a site characterization of a shale formation. At the core scale, we use triaxial fracture experiments and a finite-element discrete-elementmore » fracture propagation model with a coupled fluid solver to study dynamic crack propagation in low permeability shale. We use lattice Boltzmann pore-scale simulations and microfluidic experiments in both synthetic and real micromodels to study pore-scale flow phenomenon such as multiphase flow and mixing. A mechanistic description and integration of these multiple scales is required for accurate predictions of production and the eventual optimization of hydrocarbon extraction from unconventional reservoirs.« less

Development of a microscale land use regression model for predicting NO2 concentrations at a heavy trafficked suburban area in Auckland, NZ.

PubMed

Weissert, L F; Salmond, J A; Miskell, G; Alavi-Shoshtari, M; Williams, D E

2018-04-01

Land use regression (LUR) analysis has become a key method to explain air pollutant concentrations at unmeasured sites at city or country scales, but little is known about the applicability of LUR at microscales. We present a microscale LUR model developed for a heavy trafficked section of road in Auckland, New Zealand. We also test the within-city transferability of LUR models developed at different spatial scales (local scale and city scale). Nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) was measured during summer at 40 sites and a LUR model was developed based on standard criteria. The results showed that LUR models are able to capture the microscale variability with the model explaining 66% of the variability in NO 2 concentrations. Predictor variables identified at this scale were street width, distance to major road, presence of awnings and number of bus stops, with the latter three also being important determinants at the local scale. This highlights the importance of street and building configurations for individual exposure at the street level. However, within-city transferability was limited with the number of bus stops being the only significant predictor variable at all spatial scales and locations tested, indicating the strong influence of diesel emissions related to bus traffic. These findings show that air quality monitoring is necessary at a high spatial density within cities in capturing small-scale variability in NO 2 concentrations at the street level and assessing individual exposure to traffic related air pollutants. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Shoreline changes and its impact on archaeological sites in West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenger-Nielsen, R.; Kroon, A.; Elberling, B.; Hollesen, J.

2017-12-01

Coastal erosion is regarded as a major threat to archaeological sites in the Arctic region. The problem arises because the predominantly marine-focused lifeways of Arctic people means that the majority of archaeological sites are found near the coast. On a Pan-Arctic scale, coastal erosion is often explained by long-term processes such as sea level rise, lengthening of open water periods due to a decline in sea ice, and a predicted increase in the frequency of major storms. However, on a local scale other short-term processes may be important parameters determining the coastal development. In this study, we focus on the Nuuk fjord system in West Greenland, which has been inhabited over the past 4000 years by different cultures and holds around 260 registered archaeological settlements. The fjord is characterized by its large branching of narrow deep-water and well-shaded water bodies, where tidal processes and local sources of sediment supply by rivers are observed to be the dominant factors determining the coastal development. We present a regional model showing the vulnerability of the shoreline and archeological sites due to coastal processes. The model is based on a) levelling surveys and historical aerial photographs of nine specific sites distributed in the region, b) water level measurements at three sites representing the inner-, middle- and outer fjord system, c) aerial photographs, satellite images and meteorological data of the entire region used to up-scale our local information at a specific settlement scale towards a regional scale. This deals with spatial and temporal variability in erosion and accumulation patterns along the shores in fjords and open seas.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greenberg, Jim; Penuelas, J.; Guenther, Alex B.

To survey landscape-scale fluxes of biogenic gases, a100-meterTeflon tube was attached to a tethered balloon as a sampling inlet for a fast response Proton Transfer Reaction Mass Spectrometer (PTRMS). Along with meteorological instruments deployed on the tethered balloon and at 3-mand outputs from a regional weather model, these observations were used to estimate landscape scale biogenic volatile organic compound fluxes with two micrometeorological techniques: mixed layer variance and surface layer gradients. This highly mobile sampling system was deployed at four field sites near Barcelona to estimate landscape-scale BVOC emission factors in a relatively short period (3 weeks). The two micrometeorologicalmore » techniques agreed within the uncertainty of the flux measurements at all four sites even though the locations had considerable heterogeneity in species distribution and complex terrain. The observed fluxes were significantly different than emissions predicted with an emission model using site-specific emission factors and land-cover characteristics. Considering the wide range in reported BVOC emission factors of VOCs for individual vegetation species (more than an order of magnitude), this flux estimation technique is useful for constraining BVOC emission factors used as model inputs.« less

Geological Investigation Program for the Site of a New Nuclear Power Plant in Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerstenkorn, András; Trosits, Dalma; Chikán, Géza; János Katona, Tamás

2015-04-01

Comprehensive site evalaution program is implemented for the new Nuclear Power Plant to be constructed at Paks site in Hungary with the aim of confirmation of acceptability of the site and definition of site-related design basis data. Most extensive part of this program is to investigate geological-tectonical features of the site with particular aim on the assessment of the capability of faults at and around the site, characterization of site seismic hazard, and definition of the design basis earthquake. A brief description of the scope and methodology of the geological, seismological, geophysical, geotechnical and hydrogeological investigations will be given on the poster. Main focus of the presentation is to show the graded structure and extent of the geological investigations that follow the needs and scale of the geological modeling, starting with the site and its vicinity, as well as on the near regional and the regional scale. Geological inverstigations includes several boreholes up-to the base-rock, plenty of boreholes discovering the Pannonian and large number of shallow boreholes for investigation of more recent development. The planning of the geological investigations is based on the 3D seismic survey performed around the site, that is complemented by shallow-seimic survey at and in the vicinity of the site. The 3D geophysical imaging provides essential geodynamic information to assess the capability of near site faults and for the seismic hazard analysis, as well as for the hydrogeological modeling. The planned seismic survey gives a unique dataset for understanding the spatial relationship between individual fault segments. Planning of the research (trenching, etc.) for paleoseismic manifestations is also based on the 3D seismic survey. The seismic survey and other geophysical data (including data of space geodesy) allow the amendment of the understanding and the model of the tectonic evolution of the area and geological events. As it is known from earlier studies, seismic sources in the near regional area are the dominating contributors to the site seimic hazard. Therefore a 3D geological model will be developed for the 50 km region around the site in order to consider different geological scenarios. Site-scale investigations are aimed on the characterization of local geotechnical and hydrogeological conditions. The geotechnical investigations provide data for the evaluation of site response, i.e. the free-field ground motion response spectra, assessment of the liquefaction hazard and foundation design. Important element of the hydrogeological survey is numerical groundwater modeling. The aim of hydrogeological modeling is the summary of hydrogeological data in a numeric system, the description, simulation of underground water flow and transport conditions.

Modeling of thin film GaAs growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heinbockel, J. H.

1982-01-01

A potential scaling Monte Carlo model of crystal growth is developed. The model is a modification of the solid-on-solid method for studying crystal growth in that potentials at surface sites are continuously updated on a time scale reflecting the surface events of migration, incorporation and evaporation. The model allows for B on A type of crystal growth and lattice disregistry by the assignment of potential values at various surface sites. The surface adatoms are periodically assigned a random energy from a Boltzmann distribution and this energy determines whether the adatoms evaporate, migrate or remain stationary during the sampling interval. For each addition or migration of an adatom, the surface potentials are adjusted to reflect the adsorption, migration or desorption potential changes.

A Unified Multi-scale Model for Cross-Scale Evaluation and Integration of Hydrological and Biogeochemical Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, C.; Yang, X.; Bailey, V. L.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Hinkle, C.

2013-12-01

Mathematical representations of hydrological and biogeochemical processes in soil, plant, aquatic, and atmospheric systems vary with scale. Process-rich models are typically used to describe hydrological and biogeochemical processes at the pore and small scales, while empirical, correlation approaches are often used at the watershed and regional scales. A major challenge for multi-scale modeling is that water flow, biogeochemical processes, and reactive transport are described using different physical laws and/or expressions at the different scales. For example, the flow is governed by the Navier-Stokes equations at the pore-scale in soils, by the Darcy law in soil columns and aquifer, and by the Navier-Stokes equations again in open water bodies (ponds, lake, river) and atmosphere surface layer. This research explores whether the physical laws at the different scales and in different physical domains can be unified to form a unified multi-scale model (UMSM) to systematically investigate the cross-scale, cross-domain behavior of fundamental processes at different scales. This presentation will discuss our research on the concept, mathematical equations, and numerical execution of the UMSM. Three-dimensional, multi-scale hydrological processes at the Disney Wilderness Preservation (DWP) site, Florida will be used as an example for demonstrating the application of the UMSM. In this research, the UMSM was used to simulate hydrological processes in rooting zones at the pore and small scales including water migration in soils under saturated and unsaturated conditions, root-induced hydrological redistribution, and role of rooting zone biogeochemical properties (e.g., root exudates and microbial mucilage) on water storage and wetting/draining. The small scale simulation results were used to estimate effective water retention properties in soil columns that were superimposed on the bulk soil water retention properties at the DWP site. The UMSM parameterized from smaller scale simulations were then used to simulate coupled flow and moisture migration in soils in saturated and unsaturated zones, surface and groundwater exchange, and surface water flow in streams and lakes at the DWP site under dynamic precipitation conditions. Laboratory measurements of soil hydrological and biogeochemical properties are used to parameterize the UMSM at the small scales, and field measurements are used to evaluate the UMSM.

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display at GSFC

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-02-26

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display. A full-scale model of the James Webb Space Telescope was built by the prime contractor, Northrop Grumman, to provide a better understanding of the size, scale and complexity of this satellite. The model is constructed mainly of aluminum and steel, weighs 12,000 lb., and is approximately 80 feet long, 40 feet wide and 40 feet tall. The model requires 2 trucks to ship it and assembly takes a crew of 12 approximately four days. This model has travelled to a few sites since 2005. The photographs below were taken at some of its destinations. The model is pictured here in Greenbelt, MD at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/Pat Izzo

Constructing Optimal Coarse-Grained Sites of Huge Biomolecules by Fluctuation Maximization.

PubMed

Li, Min; Zhang, John Zenghui; Xia, Fei

2016-04-12

Coarse-grained (CG) models are valuable tools for the study of functions of large biomolecules on large length and time scales. The definition of CG representations for huge biomolecules is always a formidable challenge. In this work, we propose a new method called fluctuation maximization coarse-graining (FM-CG) to construct the CG sites of biomolecules. The defined residual in FM-CG converges to a maximal value as the number of CG sites increases, allowing an optimal CG model to be rigorously defined on the basis of the maximum. More importantly, we developed a robust algorithm called stepwise local iterative optimization (SLIO) to accelerate the process of coarse-graining large biomolecules. By means of the efficient SLIO algorithm, the computational cost of coarse-graining large biomolecules is reduced to within the time scale of seconds, which is far lower than that of conventional simulated annealing. The coarse-graining of two huge systems, chaperonin GroEL and lengsin, indicates that our new methods can coarse-grain huge biomolecular systems with up to 10,000 residues within the time scale of minutes. The further parametrization of CG sites derived from FM-CG allows us to construct the corresponding CG models for studies of the functions of huge biomolecular systems.

Financial Management of a Large Multi-site Randomized Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Sheffet, Alice J.; Flaxman, Linda; Tom, MeeLee; Hughes, Susan E.; Longbottom, Mary E.; Howard, Virginia J.; Marler, John R.; Brott, Thomas G.

2014-01-01

Background The Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy versus Stenting Trial (CREST) received five years’ funding ($21,112,866) from the National Institutes of Health to compare carotid stenting to surgery for stroke prevention in 2,500 randomized participants at 40 sites. Aims Herein we evaluate the change in the CREST budget from a fixed to variable-cost model and recommend strategies for the financial management of large-scale clinical trials. Methods Projections of the original grant’s fixed-cost model were compared to the actual costs of the revised variable-cost model. The original grant’s fixed-cost budget included salaries, fringe benefits, and other direct and indirect costs. For the variable-cost model, the costs were actual payments to the clinical sites and core centers based upon actual trial enrollment. We compared annual direct and indirect costs and per-patient cost for both the fixed and variable models. Differences between clinical site and core center expenditures were also calculated. Results Using a variable-cost budget for clinical sites, funding was extended by no-cost extension from five to eight years. Randomizing sites tripled from 34 to 109. Of the 2,500 targeted sample size, 138 (5.5%) were randomized during the first five years and 1,387 (55.5%) during the no-cost extension. The actual per-patient costs of the variable model were 9% ($13,845) of the projected per-patient costs ($152,992) of the fixed model. Conclusions Performance-based budgets conserve funding, promote compliance, and allow for additional sites at modest additional cost. Costs of large-scale clinical trials can thus be reduced through effective management without compromising scientific integrity. PMID:24661748

Modeling sugar cane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

2014-01-01

Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, a particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of Agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS' phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte-Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input parameters on a continental scale across the large regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Ten parameters driving most of the uncertainty in the ORCHIDEE-STICS modeled biomass at the 7 sites are identified by the screening procedure. We found that the 10 most sensitive parameters control phenology (maximum rate of increase of LAI) and root uptake of water and nitrogen (root profile and root growth rate, nitrogen stress threshold) in STICS, and photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), and transpiration and respiration (stomatal conductance, growth and maintenance respiration coefficients) in ORCHIDEE. We find that the optimal carboxylation rate and photosynthesis temperature parameters contribute most to the uncertainty in harvested biomass simulations at site scale. The spatial variation of the ranked correlation between input parameters and modeled biomass at harvest is well explained by rain and temperature drivers, suggesting climate-mediated different sensitivities of modeled sugar cane yield to the model parameters, for Australia and Brazil. This study reveals the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainty variability for a highly parameterized agro-LSM and calls for more systematic uncertainty analyses of such models.

Modeling sugarcane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Caubel, A.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

2014-06-01

Agro-land surface models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugarcane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of partial ranked correlation coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input parameters on a continental scale across the large regions of intensive sugarcane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. The ten parameters driving most of the uncertainty in the ORCHIDEE-STICS modeled biomass at the 7 sites are identified by the screening procedure. We found that the 10 most sensitive parameters control phenology (maximum rate of increase of LAI) and root uptake of water and nitrogen (root profile and root growth rate, nitrogen stress threshold) in STICS, and photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), and transpiration and respiration (stomatal conductance, growth and maintenance respiration coefficients) in ORCHIDEE. We find that the optimal carboxylation rate and photosynthesis temperature parameters contribute most to the uncertainty in harvested biomass simulations at site scale. The spatial variation of the ranked correlation between input parameters and modeled biomass at harvest is well explained by rain and temperature drivers, suggesting different climate-mediated sensitivities of modeled sugarcane yield to the model parameters, for Australia and Brazil. This study reveals the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainty variability for a highly parameterized agro-LSM and calls for more systematic uncertainty analyses of such models.

Evaluating the potential for site-specific modification of LiDAR DEM derivatives to improve environmental planning-scale wetland identification using Random Forest classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neil, Gina L.; Goodall, Jonathan L.; Watson, Layne T.

2018-04-01

Wetlands are important ecosystems that provide many ecological benefits, and their quality and presence are protected by federal regulations. These regulations require wetland delineations, which can be costly and time-consuming to perform. Computer models can assist in this process, but lack the accuracy necessary for environmental planning-scale wetland identification. In this study, the potential for improvement of wetland identification models through modification of digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives, derived from high-resolution and increasingly available light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data, at a scale necessary for small-scale wetland delineations is evaluated. A novel approach of flow convergence modelling is presented where Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), curvature, and Cartographic Depth-to-Water index (DTW), are modified to better distinguish wetland from upland areas, combined with ancillary soil data, and used in a Random Forest classification. This approach is applied to four study sites in Virginia, implemented as an ArcGIS model. The model resulted in significant improvement in average wetland accuracy compared to the commonly used National Wetland Inventory (84.9% vs. 32.1%), at the expense of a moderately lower average non-wetland accuracy (85.6% vs. 98.0%) and average overall accuracy (85.6% vs. 92.0%). From this, we concluded that modifying TWI, curvature, and DTW provides more robust wetland and non-wetland signatures to the models by improving accuracy rates compared to classifications using the original indices. The resulting ArcGIS model is a general tool able to modify these local LiDAR DEM derivatives based on site characteristics to identify wetlands at a high resolution.

Allometric Scaling and Resource Limitations Model of Total Aboveground Biomass in Forest Stands: Site-scale Test of Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

CHOI, S.; Shi, Y.; Ni, X.; Simard, M.; Myneni, R. B.

2013-12-01

Sparseness in in-situ observations has precluded the spatially explicit and accurate mapping of forest biomass. The need for large-scale maps has raised various approaches implementing conjugations between forest biomass and geospatial predictors such as climate, forest type, soil property, and topography. Despite the improved modeling techniques (e.g., machine learning and spatial statistics), a common limitation is that biophysical mechanisms governing tree growth are neglected in these black-box type models. The absence of a priori knowledge may lead to false interpretation of modeled results or unexplainable shifts in outputs due to the inconsistent training samples or study sites. Here, we present a gray-box approach combining known biophysical processes and geospatial predictors through parametric optimizations (inversion of reference measures). Total aboveground biomass in forest stands is estimated by incorporating the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Two main premises of this research are: (a) The Allometric Scaling and Resource Limitations (ASRL) theory can provide a relationship between tree geometry and local resource availability constrained by environmental conditions; and (b) The zeroth order theory (size-frequency distribution) can expand individual tree allometry into total aboveground biomass at the forest stand level. In addition to the FIA estimates, two reference maps from the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD) and U.S. Forest Service (USFS) were produced to evaluate the model. This research focuses on a site-scale test of the biomass model to explore the robustness of predictors, and to potentially improve models using additional geospatial predictors such as climatic variables, vegetation indices, soil properties, and lidar-/radar-derived altimetry products (or existing forest canopy height maps). As results, the optimized ASRL estimates satisfactorily resemble the FIA aboveground biomass in terms of data distribution, overall agreement, and spatial similarity across scales. Uncertainties are quantified (ranged from 0.2 to 0.4) by taking into account the spatial mismatch (FIA plot vs. PRISM grid), heterogeneity (species composition), and an example bias scenario (= 0.2) in the root system extents.

Elimination of the Reaction Rate "Scale Effect": Application of the Lagrangian Reactive Particle-Tracking Method to Simulate Mixing-Limited, Field-Scale Biodegradation at the Schoolcraft (MI, USA) Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Dong; Benson, David A.; Fernández-Garcia, Daniel; Henri, Christopher V.; Hyndman, David W.; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Bolster, Diogo

2017-12-01

Measured (or empirically fitted) reaction rates at groundwater remediation sites are typically much lower than those found in the same material at the batch or laboratory scale. The reduced rates are commonly attributed to poorer mixing at the larger scales. A variety of methods have been proposed to account for this scaling effect in reactive transport. In this study, we use the Lagrangian particle-tracking and reaction (PTR) method to simulate a field bioremediation experiment at the Schoolcraft, MI site. A denitrifying bacterium, Pseudomonas Stutzeri strain KC (KC), was injected to the aquifer, along with sufficient substrate, to degrade the contaminant, carbon tetrachloride (CT), under anaerobic conditions. The PTR method simulates chemical reactions through probabilistic rules of particle collisions, interactions, and transformations to address the scale effect (lower apparent reaction rates for each level of upscaling, from batch to column to field scale). In contrast to a prior Eulerian reaction model, the PTR method is able to match the field-scale experiment using the rate coefficients obtained from batch experiments.

Comprehensive modeling of microRNA targets predicts functional non-conserved and non-canonical sites.

PubMed

Betel, Doron; Koppal, Anjali; Agius, Phaedra; Sander, Chris; Leslie, Christina

2010-01-01

mirSVR is a new machine learning method for ranking microRNA target sites by a down-regulation score. The algorithm trains a regression model on sequence and contextual features extracted from miRanda-predicted target sites. In a large-scale evaluation, miRanda-mirSVR is competitive with other target prediction methods in identifying target genes and predicting the extent of their downregulation at the mRNA or protein levels. Importantly, the method identifies a significant number of experimentally determined non-canonical and non-conserved sites.

The hydrological cycle at European Fluxnet sites: modeling seasonal water and energy budgets at local scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockli, R.; Vidale, P. L.

2003-04-01

The importance of correctly including land surface processes in climate models has been increasingly recognized in the past years. Even on seasonal to interannual time scales land surface - atmosphere feedbacks can play a substantial role in determining the state of the near-surface climate. The availability of soil moisture for both runoff and evapotranspiration is dependent on biophysical processes occuring in plants and in the soil acting on a wide time-scale from minutes to years. Fluxnet site measurements in various climatic zones are used to drive three generations of LSM's (land surface models) in order to assess the level of complexity needed to represent vegetation processes at the local scale. The three models were the Bucket model (Manabe 1969), BATS 1E (Dickinson 1984) and SiB 2 (Sellers et al. 1996). Evapotranspiration and runoff processes simulated by these models range from simple one-layer soils and no-vegetation parameterizations to complex multilayer soils, including realistic photosynthesis-stomatal conductance models. The latter is driven by satellite remote sensing land surface parameters inheriting the spatiotemporal evolution of vegetation phenology. In addition a simulation with SiB 2 not only including vertical water fluxes but also lateral soil moisture transfers by downslope flow is conducted for a pre-alpine catchment in Switzerland. Preliminary results are presented and show that - depending on the climatic environment and on the season - a realistic representation of evapotranspiration processes including seasonally and interannually-varying state of vegetation is significantly improving the representation of observed latent and sensible heat fluxes on the local scale. Moreover, the interannual evolution of soil moisture availability and runoff is strongly dependent on the chosen model complexity. Biophysical land surface parameters from satellite allow to represent the seasonal changes in vegetation activity, which has great impact on the yearly budget of transpiration fluxes. For some sites, however, the hydrological cycle is simulated reasonably well even with simple land surface representations.

BOREAS RSS-8 BIOME-BGC Model Simulations at Tower Flux Sites in 1994

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Forrest G. (Editor); Nickeson, Jaime (Editor); Kimball, John

2000-01-01

BIOME-BGC is a general ecosystem process model designed to simulate biogeochemical and hydrologic processes across multiple scales (Running and Hunt, 1993). In this investigation, BIOME-BGC was used to estimate daily water and carbon budgets for the BOREAS tower flux sites for 1994. Carbon variables estimated by the model include gross primary production (i.e., net photosynthesis), maintenance and heterotrophic respiration, net primary production, and net ecosystem carbon exchange. Hydrologic variables estimated by the model include snowcover, evaporation, transpiration, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and outflow. The information provided by the investigation includes input initialization and model output files for various sites in tabular ASCII format.

Multiscale characterization and mechanical modeling of an Al-Zn-Mg electron beam weld

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puydt, Quentin; Flouriot, Sylvain; Ringeval, Sylvain; Parry, Guillaume; De Geuser, Frédéric; Deschamps, Alexis

Welding of precipitation hardening alloys results in multi-scale microstructural heterogeneities, from the hardening nano-scale precipitates to the micron-scale solidification structures and to the component geometry. This heterogeneity results in a complex mechanical response, with gradients in strength, stress triaxiality and damage initiation sites.

Novel Sensor for the In Situ Measurement of Uranium Fluxes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hatfield, Kirk

2015-02-10

The goal of this project was to develop a sensor that incorporates the field-tested concepts of the passive flux meter to provide direct in situ measures of flux for uranium and groundwater in porous media. Measurable contaminant fluxes [J] are essentially the product of concentration [C] and groundwater flux or specific discharge [q ]. The sensor measures [J] and [q] by changes in contaminant and tracer amounts respectively on a sorbent. By using measurement rather than inference from static parameters, the sensor can directly advance conceptual and computational models for field scale simulations. The sensor was deployed in conjunction withmore » DOE in obtaining field-scale quantification of subsurface processes affecting uranium transport (e.g., advection) and transformation (e.g., uranium attenuation) at the Rifle IFRC Site in Rifle, Colorado. Project results have expanded our current understanding of how field-scale spatial variations in fluxes of uranium, groundwater and salient electron donor/acceptors are coupled to spatial variations in measured microbial biomass/community composition, effective field-scale uranium mass balances, attenuation, and stability. The coupling between uranium, various nutrients and micro flora can be used to estimate field-scale rates of uranium attenuation and field-scale transitions in microbial communities. This research focuses on uranium (VI), but the sensor principles and design are applicable to field-scale fate and transport of other radionuclides. Laboratory studies focused on sorbent selection and calibration, along with sensor development and validation under controlled conditions. Field studies were conducted at the Rifle IFRC Site in Rifle, Colorado. These studies were closely coordinated with existing SBR (formerly ERSP) projects to complement data collection. Small field tests were conducted during the first two years that focused on evaluating field-scale deployment procedures and validating sensor performance under controlled field conditions. In the third and fourth year a suite of larger field studies were conducted. For these studies, the uranium flux sensor was used with uranium speciation measurements and molecular-biological tools to characterize microbial community and active biomass at synonymous wells distributed in a large grid. These field efforts quantified spatial changes in uranium flux and field-scale rates of uranium attenuation (ambient and stimulated), uranium stability, and quantitatively assessed how fluxes and effective reaction rates were coupled to spatial variations in microbial community and active biomass. Analyses of data from these field experiments were used to generate estimates of Monod kinetic parameters that are ‘effective’ in nature and optimal for modeling uranium fate and transport at the field-scale. This project provided the opportunity to develop the first sensor that provides direct measures of both uranium (VI) and groundwater flux. A multidisciplinary team was assembled to include two geochemists, a microbiologist, and two quantitative contaminant hydrologists. Now that the project is complete, the sensor can be deployed at DOE sites to evaluate field-scale uranium attenuation, source behavior, the efficacy of remediation, and off-site risk. Because the sensor requires no power, it can be deployed at remote sites for periods of days to months. The fundamental science derived from this project can be used to advance the development of predictive models for various transport and attenuation processes in aquifers. Proper development of these models is critical for long-term stewardship of contaminated sites in the context of predicting uranium source behavior, remediation performance, and off-site risk.« less

Combining tower mixing ratio and community model data to estimate regional-scale net ecosystem carbon exchange by boundary layer inversion over four flux towers in the United States

Treesearch

Xueri Dang; Chun-Ta Lai; David Y. Hollinger; Andrew J. Schauer; Jingfeng Xiao; J. William Munger; Clenton Owensby; James R. Ehleringer

2011-01-01

We evaluated an idealized boundary layer (BL) model with simple parameterizations using vertical transport information from community model outputs (NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis and ECMWF Interim Analysis) to estimate regional-scale net CO2 fluxes from 2002 to 2007 at three forest and one grassland flux sites in the United States. The BL modeling...

Prospective Creation and Validation of the PREVENTT (Prediction and Enaction of Prevention Treatments Trigger) Scale for Surgical Site Infections (SSIs) in Patients With Diverticulitis.

PubMed

Bordeianou, Liliana; Cauley, Christy E; Patel, Ruchin; Bleday, Ronald; Mahmood, Sadiqa; Kennedy, Kevin; Ahmed, Khawaja F; Yokoe, Deborah; Hooper, David; Rubin, Marc

2018-06-18

Create and validate diverticulitis surgical site infection prediction scale. Surgical site infections cause significant morbidity after colorectal surgery. An infection prediction scale could target infection prevention bundles to high-risk patients. Prospectively collected National Surgical Quality Improvement Program and electronic medical record data obtained on diverticulitis colectomy patients across a Healthcare Network-wide Colorectal Surgery Collaborative (5 hospitals). Patients with and without surgical site infections were compared. Predictive variables were identified using logistic regression model; model estimates obtained through 1000 bootstrap replications for scale validation. A total of 1737 colectomies were performed (2010-2016): mean age 59.9 years (SD 12.7), 56.4% female; 93.4% Caucasian; smokers 16.3%, diabetics 7.7%, steroid use 6.0%. Two hundred thirty-one (13.3%) were presented to operating room emergently and 138 (7.9%) with abscess at time of disease admission. Two hundred ninety-six patients underwent Hartman procedures, and 113 (6.5%) received diverted primary anastomosis. Average length of stay was 6.9 days (standard deviation 7.01), 30-day mortality was 1.5%, anastomotic leak rate was 3.1%. Twenty-one percent of patients (n = 366) developed a surgical site infection. Several predictors for infection were identified: obesity (body mass index >30), advanced age (>70 years), diabetes mellitus, preoperative abscess, open surgery, emergent operations, and prolonged operations (>3 h). Creation of protected anastomosis in emergent settings was associated with increased infection rates. Presence of more than 5 risk factors was associated with infection rates of 45.8% (c = 0.69). Patients with diverticulitis have high surgical site infection rates due to nonmodifiable risk factors. Our Prediction and Enaction of Prevention Treatments Trigger scale can risk stratify patients for targeting surgical site infection prevention bundles and outcomes risk adjustments.

A three-site gauge model for flavor hierarchies and flavor anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordone, Marzia; Cornella, Claudia; Fuentes-Martín, Javier; Isidori, Gino

2018-04-01

We present a three-site Pati-Salam gauge model able to explain the Standard Model flavor hierarchies while, at the same time, accommodating the recent experimental hints of lepton-flavor non-universality in B decays. The model is consistent with low- and high-energy bounds, and predicts a rich spectrum of new states at the TeV scale that could be probed in the near future by the high-pT experiments at the LHC.

Posttest analysis of the 1:6-scale reinforced concrete containment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pfeiffer, P.A.; Kennedy, J.M.; Marchertas, A.H.

A prediction of the response of the Sandia National Laboratories 1:6- scale reinforced concrete containment model test was made by Argonne National Laboratory. ANL along with nine other organizations performed a detailed nonlinear response analysis of the 1:6-scale model containment subjected to overpressurization in the fall of 1986. The two-dimensional code TEMP-STRESS and the three-dimensional NEPTUNE code were utilized (1) to predict the global response of the structure, (2) to identify global failure sites and the corresponding failure pressures and (3) to identify some local failure sites and pressure levels. A series of axisymmetric models was studied with the two-dimensionalmore » computer program TEMP-STRESS. The comparison of these pretest computations with test data from the containment model has provided a test for the capability of the respective finite element codes to predict global failure modes, and hence serves as a validation of these codes. Only the two-dimensional analyses will be discussed in this paper. 3 refs., 10 figs.« less

Computer 3D site model generation based on aerial images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheltov, Sergey Y.; Blokhinov, Yuri B.; Stepanov, Alexander A.; Skryabin, Sergei V.; Sibiriakov, Alexandre V.

1997-07-01

The technology for 3D model design of real world scenes and its photorealistic rendering are current topics of investigation. Development of such technology is very attractive to implement in vast varieties of applications: military mission planning, crew training, civil engineering, architecture, virtual reality entertainments--just a few were mentioned. 3D photorealistic models of urban areas are often discussed now as upgrade from existing 2D geographic information systems. Possibility of site model generation with small details depends on two main factors: available source dataset and computer power resources. In this paper PC based technology is presented, so the scenes of middle resolution (scale of 1:1000) be constructed. Types of datasets are the gray level aerial stereo pairs of photographs (scale of 1:14000) and true color on ground photographs of buildings (scale ca.1:1000). True color terrestrial photographs are also necessary for photorealistic rendering, that in high extent improves human perception of the scene.

One way coupling of CMAQ and a road source dispersion model for fine scale air pollution predictions

PubMed Central

Beevers, Sean D.; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Williams, Martin L.; Carslaw, David C.

2012-01-01

In this paper we have coupled the CMAQ and ADMS air quality models to predict hourly concentrations of NOX, NO2 and O3 for London at a spatial scale of 20 m × 20 m. Model evaluation has demonstrated reasonable agreement with measurements from 80 monitoring sites in London. For NO2 the model evaluation statistics gave 73% of the hourly concentrations within a factor of two of observations, a mean bias of −4.7 ppb and normalised mean bias of −0.17, a RMSE value of 17.7 and an r value of 0.58. The equivalent results for O3 were 61% (FAC2), 2.8 ppb (MB), 0.15 (NMB), 12.1 (RMSE) and 0.64 (r). Analysis of the errors in the model predictions by hour of the week showed the need for improvements in predicting the magnitude of road transport related NOX emissions as well as the hourly emissions scaling in the model. These findings are consistent with recent evidence of UK road transport NOX emissions, reported elsewhere. The predictions of wind speed using the WRF model also influenced the model results and contributed to the daytime over prediction of NOX concentrations at the central London background site at Kensington and Chelsea. An investigation of the use of a simple NO–NO2–O3 chemistry scheme showed good performance close to road sources, and this is also consistent with previous studies. The coupling of the two models raises an issue of emissions double counting. Here, we have put forward a pragmatic solution to this problem with the result that a median double counting error of 0.42% exists across 39 roadside sites in London. Finally, whilst the model can be improved, the current results show promise and demonstrate that the use of a combination of regional scale and local scale models can provide a practical modelling tool for policy development at intergovernmental, national and local authority level, as well as for use in epidemiological studies. PMID:23471172

Measuring the patient perspective on latissimus dorsi donor site outcomes following breast reconstruction.

PubMed

Browne, John P; Jeevan, Ranjeet; Pusic, Andrea L; Klassen, Anne F; Gulliver-Clarke, Carmel; Pereira, Jerome; Caddy, Christopher M; Cano, Stefan J

2018-03-01

There is little evidence about the long-term donor site outcome of latissimus dorsi breast reconstruction and no patient-reported outcome measures designed specifically for the procedure. A prospective cohort of breast cancer patients having latissimus dorsi reconstruction after a mastectomy was recruited from 270 hospitals in the United Kingdom. An 18-month follow up questionnaire containing two novel scales was sent to consenting patients. The prevalence of aesthetic and functional morbidity at the donor site was described. The two new scales were refined using the Rasch measurement model and subsequently validated. 1,096 women completed the new scales. 78% of patients reported that no back appearance issues had bothered them "most of the time" or "all of the time" in the past two weeks. The equivalent figure for functional morbidity was 60%. Four items were eliminated following initial psychometric testing. This produced an 8-item Back Appearance scale and an 11-item Back and Shoulder Function scale. Both scales showed adequate fit to the Rasch measurement model. Higher levels of aesthetic and functional bother were observed for completely autologous procedures versus those where latissimus dorsi reconstruction was used to cover an implant (p <0.05). Higher levels of aesthetic bother were observed in women who had suffered a perioperative complication at the donor site (p = 0.003). These results can inform patients of the morbidity associated with latissimus dorsi reconstruction. The new scales can be used to compare groups undergoing different variations of the procedure and to monitor individual patients. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Green Infrastructure Modeling Tools

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Modeling tools support planning and design decisions on a range of scales from setting a green infrastructure target for an entire watershed to designing a green infrastructure practice for a particular site.

Reduced-complexity multi-site rainfall generation: one million years over night using the model TripleM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breinl, Korbinian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Girons Lopez, Marc

2017-04-01

We assess uncertainties of multi-site rainfall generation across spatial scales and different climatic conditions. Many research subjects in earth sciences such as floods, droughts or water balance simulations require the generation of long rainfall time series. In large study areas the simulation at multiple sites becomes indispensable to account for the spatial rainfall variability, but becomes more complex compared to a single site due to the intermittent nature of rainfall. Weather generators can be used for extrapolating rainfall time series, and various models have been presented in the literature. Even though the large majority of multi-site rainfall generators is based on similar methods, such as resampling techniques or Markovian processes, they often become too complex. We think that this complexity has been a limit for the application of such tools. Furthermore, the majority of multi-site rainfall generators found in the literature are either not publicly available or intended for being applied at small geographical scales, often only in temperate climates. Here we present a revised, and now publicly available, version of a multi-site rainfall generation code first applied in 2014 in Austria and France, which we call TripleM (Multisite Markov Model). We test this fast and robust code with daily rainfall observations from the United States, in a subtropical, tropical and temperate climate, using rain gauge networks with a maximum site distance above 1,000km, thereby generating one million years of synthetic time series. The modelling of these one million years takes one night on a recent desktop computer. In this research, we first start the simulations with a small station network of three sites and progressively increase the number of sites and the spatial extent, and analyze the changing uncertainties for multiple statistical metrics such as dry and wet spells, rainfall autocorrelation, lagged cross correlations and the inter-annual rainfall variability. Our study contributes to the scientific community of earth sciences and the ongoing debate on extreme precipitation in a changing climate by making a stable, and very easily applicable, multi-site rainfall generation code available to the research community and providing a better understanding of the performance of multi-site rainfall generation depending on spatial scales and climatic conditions.

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display at Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-02-26

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display. A full-scale model of the James Webb Space Telescope was built by the prime contractor, Northrop Grumman, to provide a better understanding of the size, scale and complexity of this satellite. The model is constructed mainly of aluminum and steel, weighs 12,000 lb., and is approximately 80 feet long, 40 feet wide and 40 feet tall. The model requires 2 trucks to ship it and assembly takes a crew of 12 approximately four days. This model has travelled to a few sites since 2005. The photographs below were taken at some of its destinations. The model is pictured here in Greenbelt, MD at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/Pat Izzo

Evaluation of spatial models to predict vulnerability of forest birds to brood parasitism by cowbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gustafson, E.J.; Knutson, M.G.; Niemi, G.J.; Friberg, M.

2002-01-01

We constructed alternative spatial models at two scales to predict Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism rates from land cover maps. The local-scale models tested competing hypotheses about the relationship between cowbird parasitism and distance of host nests from a forest edge (forest-nonforest boundary). The landscape models tested competing hypotheses about how landscape features (e.g., forests, agricultural fields) interact to determine rates of cowbird parasitism. The models incorporate spatial neighborhoods with a radius of 2.5 km in their formulation, reflecting the scale of the majority of cowbird commuting activity. Field data on parasitism by cowbirds (parasitism rate and number of cowbird eggs per nest) were collected at 28 sites in the Driftless Area Ecoregion of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa and were compared to the predictions of the alternative models. At the local scale, there was a significant positive relationship between cowbird parasitism and mean distance of nest sites from the forest edge. At the landscape scale, the best fitting models were the forest-dependent and forest-fragmentation-dependent models, in which more heavily forested and less fragmented landscapes had higher parasitism rates. However, much of the explanatory power of these models results from the inclusion of the local-scale relationship in these models. We found lower rates of cowbird parasitism than did most Midwestern studies, and we identified landscape patterns of cowbird parasitism that are opposite to those reported in several other studies of Midwestern songbirds. We caution that cowbird parasitism patterns can be unpredictable, depending upon ecoregional location and the spatial extent, and that our models should be tested in other ecoregions before they are applied there. Our study confirms that cowbird biology has a strong spatial component, and that improved spatial models applied at multiple spatial scales will be required to predict the effects of landscape and forest management on cowbird parasitism of forest birds.

Reactive transport of uranium in fractured crystalline rock: Upscaling in time and distance

DOE PAGES

Dittrich, Timothy M.; Reimus, Paul W.

2015-09-29

In this study, batch adsorption and breakthrough column experiments were conducted to evaluate uranium transport through altered material that fills fractures in a granite rock system at the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland at pH 6.9 and 7.9. The role of adsorption and desorption kinetics was evaluated with reactive transport modeling by comparing one-, two-, and three-site models. Emphasis was placed on describing long desorption tails that are important for upscaling in time and distance. The effect of increasing pH in injection solutions was also evaluated. For pH 6.9, a three-site model with forward rate constants between 0.07 and 0.8more » ml g –1 h –1, reverse rate constants between 0.001 and 0.06 h –1, and site densities of 1.3, 0.104, and 0.026 μmol g –1 for ‘weak/fast’, ‘strong/slow’, and ‘very strong/very slow’ sites provided the best fits. For pH 7.9, a three-site model with forward rate constants between 0.05 and 0.8 mL g –1 h –1, reverse rate constants between 0.001 and 0.6 h –1, and site densities of 1.3, 0.039, and 0.013 μmol g –1 for a ‘weak/fast’, ‘strong/slow’, and ‘very strong/very slow’ sites provided the best fits. Column retardation coefficients (R d) were 80 for pH 6.9 and 10.3 for pH 7.9. Model parameters determined from the batch and column experiments were used in 50 year large-scale simulations for continuous and pulse injections and indicated that a three-site model is necessary at pH 6.9, although a K d-type equilibrium partition model with one-site was adequate for large scale predictions at pH 7.9. Batch experiments were useful for predicting early breakthrough times in the columns while column experiments helped differentiate the relative importance of sorption sites and desorption rate constants on transport.« less

Local Scale Radiobrightness Modeling During the Intensive Observing Period-4 of the Cold Land Processes Experiment-1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, E.; Tedesco, M.; de Roo, R.; England, A. W.; Gu, H.; Pham, H.; Boprie, D.; Graf, T.; Koike, T.; Armstrong, R.; Brodzik, M.; Hardy, J.; Cline, D.

2004-12-01

The NASA Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX-1) was designed to provide microwave remote sensing observations and ground truth for studies of snow and frozen ground remote sensing, particularly issues related to scaling. CLPX-1 was conducted in 2002 and 2003 in Colorado, USA. One of the goals of the experiment was to test the capabilities of microwave emission models at different scales. Initial forward model validation work has concentrated on the Local-Scale Observation Site (LSOS), a 0.8~ha study site consisting of open meadows separated by trees where the most detailed measurements were made of snow depth and temperature, density, and grain size profiles. Results obtained in the case of the 3rd Intensive Observing Period (IOP3) period (February, 2003, dry snow) suggest that a model based on Dense Medium Radiative Transfer (DMRT) theory is able to model the recorded brightness temperatures using snow parameters derived from field measurements. This paper focuses on the ability of forward DMRT modelling, combined with snowpack measurements, to reproduce the radiobrightness signatures observed by the University of Michigan's Truck-Mounted Radiometer System (TMRS) at 19 and 37~GHz during the 4th IOP (IOP4) in March, 2003. Unlike in IOP3, conditions during IOP4 include both wet and dry periods, providing a valuable test of DMRT model performance. In addition, a comparison will be made for the one day of coincident observations by the University of Tokyo's Ground-Based Microwave Radiometer-7 (GBMR-7) and the TMRS. The plot-scale study in this paper establishes a baseline of DMRT performance for later studies at successively larger scales. And these scaling studies will help guide the choice of future snow retrieval algorithms and the design of future Cold Lands observing systems.

Probabilistic inference of ecohydrological parameters using observations from point to satellite scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassiouni, Maoya; Higgins, Chad W.; Still, Christopher J.; Good, Stephen P.

2018-06-01

Vegetation controls on soil moisture dynamics are challenging to measure and translate into scale- and site-specific ecohydrological parameters for simple soil water balance models. We hypothesize that empirical probability density functions (pdfs) of relative soil moisture or soil saturation encode sufficient information to determine these ecohydrological parameters. Further, these parameters can be estimated through inverse modeling of the analytical equation for soil saturation pdfs, derived from the commonly used stochastic soil water balance framework. We developed a generalizable Bayesian inference framework to estimate ecohydrological parameters consistent with empirical soil saturation pdfs derived from observations at point, footprint, and satellite scales. We applied the inference method to four sites with different land cover and climate assuming (i) an annual rainfall pattern and (ii) a wet season rainfall pattern with a dry season of negligible rainfall. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of the analytical model's fit to soil observations ranged from 0.89 to 0.99. The coefficient of variation of posterior parameter distributions ranged from < 1 to 15 %. The parameter identifiability was not significantly improved in the more complex seasonal model; however, small differences in parameter values indicate that the annual model may have absorbed dry season dynamics. Parameter estimates were most constrained for scales and locations at which soil water dynamics are more sensitive to the fitted ecohydrological parameters of interest. In these cases, model inversion converged more slowly but ultimately provided better goodness of fit and lower uncertainty. Results were robust using as few as 100 daily observations randomly sampled from the full records, demonstrating the advantage of analyzing soil saturation pdfs instead of time series to estimate ecohydrological parameters from sparse records. Our work combines modeling and empirical approaches in ecohydrology and provides a simple framework to obtain scale- and site-specific analytical descriptions of soil moisture dynamics consistent with soil moisture observations.

Large Scale Ice Water Path and 3-D Ice Water Content

DOE Data Explorer

Liu, Guosheng

2008-01-15

Cloud ice water concentration is one of the most important, yet poorly observed, cloud properties. Developing physical parameterizations used in general circulation models through single-column modeling is one of the key foci of the ARM program. In addition to the vertical profiles of temperature, water vapor and condensed water at the model grids, large-scale horizontal advective tendencies of these variables are also required as forcing terms in the single-column models. Observed horizontal advection of condensed water has not been available because the radar/lidar/radiometer observations at the ARM site are single-point measurement, therefore, do not provide horizontal distribution of condensed water. The intention of this product is to provide large-scale distribution of cloud ice water by merging available surface and satellite measurements. The satellite cloud ice water algorithm uses ARM ground-based measurements as baseline, produces datasets for 3-D cloud ice water distributions in a 10 deg x 10 deg area near ARM site. The approach of the study is to expand a (surface) point measurement to an (satellite) areal measurement. That is, this study takes the advantage of the high quality cloud measurements at the point of ARM site. We use the cloud characteristics derived from the point measurement to guide/constrain satellite retrieval, then use the satellite algorithm to derive the cloud ice water distributions within an area, i.e., 10 deg x 10 deg centered at ARM site.

Measurement of Global Radiation using Photovoltaic Panels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veroustraete, Frank; Bronders, Jan; Lefevre, Filip; Mensink, Clemens

2014-05-01

The Vito Unit - Environmental and Spatial Aspects (RMA) - for many of its models makes use of global solar radiation. From this viewpoint and also from the notion that this variable is seldom measured or available at the local scale and at high multi-temporal frequencies, it can be stated that many models are fed with low quality estimates of global solar radiation at the local to regional scales. A project was initiated called SUNSPIDER with the following objective. To make use of photovoltaic solar panels to measure solar radiation at the highest spatio-temporal resolution, from the local to the regional scales and from minutes to years. To integrate the measured solar fields in different application fields like, plant systems and agriculture, agro-meteorology and hydrology and last but not least solar energy applications. In Belgium about 250.000 PV installations have been built leading to about 6% electric power supply from photovoltaics on a yearly basis. Last year in June, the supply reached a peak of more than 20% of the total power input on the Belgian grid. A database of Belgian residential solar panel sites will be compiled. The database will serve as an input to an inverted PV model to be able to perform radiation calculations specifically for each of the validated panel sites based on minutely logged power data. Data acquisition for these sites will start each time a site is validated and hence imported in the database. Keywords: Photovoltaic Panels; PV modelling; Global Radiation.

Fire rehabilitation decisions at landscape scales: utilizing state-and-transition models developed through disturbance response grouping of ecological sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recognizing the utility of ecological sites and the associated state-and-transition model (STM) for decision support, the Bureau of Land Management in Nevada partnered with Nevada NRCS and the University of Nevada, Reno (UNR) in 2009 with the goal of creating a team that could (1) expedite developme...

An Integrated Assessment of Location-Dependent Scaling for Microalgae Biofuel Production Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Andre M.; Abodeely, Jared; Skaggs, Richard

Successful development of a large-scale microalgae-based biofuels industry requires comprehensive analysis and understanding of the feedstock supply chain—from facility siting/design through processing/upgrading of the feedstock to a fuel product. The evolution from pilot-scale production facilities to energy-scale operations presents many multi-disciplinary challenges, including a sustainable supply of water and nutrients, operational and infrastructure logistics, and economic competitiveness with petroleum-based fuels. These challenges are addressed in part by applying the Integrated Assessment Framework (IAF)—an integrated multi-scale modeling, analysis, and data management suite—to address key issues in developing and operating an open-pond facility by analyzing how variability and uncertainty in space andmore » time affect algal feedstock production rates, and determining the site-specific “optimum” facility scale to minimize capital and operational expenses. This approach explicitly and systematically assesses the interdependence of biofuel production potential, associated resource requirements, and production system design trade-offs. The IAF was applied to a set of sites previously identified as having the potential to cumulatively produce 5 billion-gallons/year in the southeastern U.S. and results indicate costs can be reduced by selecting the most effective processing technology pathway and scaling downstream processing capabilities to fit site-specific growing conditions, available resources, and algal strains.« less

Disentangling Climate and Land-use Impacts on Grassland Carbon and Water Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.

2014-12-01

Regional climate and land cover interact in a complex, non-linear manner to alter the local cycling of mass and energy. It is often difficult to isolate the role of either mechanism on the resultant fluxes. Here, we attempt to isolate these mechanisms through the use of network of 4 Ameriflux eddy covariance towers installed over different land cover and land use classes along a pronounced rainfall gradient. The land cover types include: annually burned C4 grassland, a 4 year burn site experiencing woody encroachment, an abandoned agricultural field and a new perennial agricultural site. We investigated the impact of rainfall variability, drought, and heat waves on the water and carbon budgets using data analysis, remote sensing, and modeling approaches. In addition, we have established a network of mini-meteorological stations at the annually and 4-year burn sites to assess micro-scale variability within the footprints of the towers as a function of topographic position, soil depth and soil water availability. Through the use of a wavelet multiscale decomposition and information theory metrics, we have isolated the role of environmental factors (temperature, humidity, soil moisture, etc.) on the fluxes across the different sites. By applying a similar analysis to model output, we can assess the ability of land-surface models to recreate the observed sensitity. Results indicate the utility of a network of measurement systems used in conjunction with land surface modeling and time series analysis to assess differential impacts to similar regional scale climate forcings. Implications for the role of land cover class in regional and global scale modeling systems will also be discussed.

Inference of directional selection and mutation parameters assuming equilibrium.

PubMed

Vogl, Claus; Bergman, Juraj

2015-12-01

In a classical study, Wright (1931) proposed a model for the evolution of a biallelic locus under the influence of mutation, directional selection and drift. He derived the equilibrium distribution of the allelic proportion conditional on the scaled mutation rate, the mutation bias and the scaled strength of directional selection. The equilibrium distribution can be used for inference of these parameters with genome-wide datasets of "site frequency spectra" (SFS). Assuming that the scaled mutation rate is low, Wright's model can be approximated by a boundary-mutation model, where mutations are introduced into the population exclusively from sites fixed for the preferred or unpreferred allelic states. With the boundary-mutation model, inference can be partitioned: (i) the shape of the SFS distribution within the polymorphic region is determined by random drift and directional selection, but not by the mutation parameters, such that inference of the selection parameter relies exclusively on the polymorphic sites in the SFS; (ii) the mutation parameters can be inferred from the amount of polymorphic and monomorphic preferred and unpreferred alleles, conditional on the selection parameter. Herein, we derive maximum likelihood estimators for the mutation and selection parameters in equilibrium and apply the method to simulated SFS data as well as empirical data from a Madagascar population of Drosophila simulans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling Stand-Scale Patterns in Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture in a Heterogeneous Plant Canopy: A Coupled Subsurface-Land Surface Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, G. R.; Gou, S.; Ferguson, I. M.; Maxwell, R. M.

2011-12-01

Savanna ecosystems present a well-known modeling challenge; understory grasses and overstory woody vegetation combine to form an open, heterogeneous canopy that creates strong spatial differences in soil moisture and evapotranspiration rates. In this analysis, we used ParFlow.CLM to create a stand-scale model of the Tonzi Ranch oak savanna, based on extensive topography, vegetation, soil, and hydrogeology data collected at the site. Measurements included canopy distribution and ground surface elevation from airborne Lidar, depth to groundwater from deep piezometers, soil and rock hydraulic conductivity, and leaf area index. We then compared the results to the site's long-term data records of radiative flux partitioning, obtained using the eddy-covariance method, and soil moisture, collected via a distributed network of capacitance probes. In order to obtain good agreement between the measured and modeled values, we identified several necessary modifications to the current CLM parameterization. These changes included the addition of a "winter grass" type and the alteration of the root structure and water stress functions to accommodate uptake of groundwater by deep roots. Finally, we compared variograms of site parameters and response variables and performed a scaling analysis relating ET and soil moisture variance to sampling size.

Regional Magnitude Research Supporting Broad-Area Monitoring of Small Seismic Events

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

detonated at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS). Observations for both test sites show that Pn amplitudes yield scale 10...identification procedures, and yield, via direct comparison to test site results for high frequencies (>1 Hz). Coda techniques are known to be effective...2006). Source spectral modeling of regional P/S discriminants at nuclear test sites in China and the former Soviet Union, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am

Meteorological Contribution to Variability in Particulate Matter Concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, H. L.; Spak, S. N.; Holloway, T.

2006-12-01

Local concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM) are driven by a number of processes, including emissions of aerosols and gaseous precursors, atmospheric chemistry, and meteorology at local, regional, and global scales. We apply statistical downscaling methods, typically used for regional climate analysis, to estimate the contribution of regional scale meteorology to PM mass concentration variability at a range of sites in the Upper Midwestern U.S. Multiple years of daily PM10 and PM2.5 data, reported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are correlated with large-scale meteorology over the region from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. We use two statistical downscaling methods (multiple linear regression, MLR, and analog) to identify which processes have the greatest impact on aerosol concentration variability. Empirical Orthogonal Functions of the NCEP meteorological data are correlated with PM timeseries at measurement sites. We examine which meteorological variables exert the greatest influence on PM variability, and which sites exhibit the greatest response to regional meteorology. To evaluate model performance, measurement data are withheld for limited periods, and compared with model results. Preliminary results suggest that regional meteorological processes account over 50% of aerosol concentration variability at study sites.

A spatial scaling relationship for soil moisture in a semiarid landscape, using spatial scaling relationships for pedology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willgoose, G. R.; Chen, M.; Cohen, S.; Saco, P. M.; Hancock, G. R.

2013-12-01

In humid areas it is generally considered that soil moisture scales spatially according to the wetness index of the landscape. This scaling arises from lateral flow downslope of ground water within the soil zone. However, in semi-arid and drier regions, this lateral flow is small and fluxes are dominated by vertical flows driven by infiltration and evapotranspiration. Thus, in the absence of runon processes, soil moisture at a location is more driven by local factors such as soil and vegetation properties at that location rather than upstream processes draining to that point. The 'apparent' spatial randomness of soil and vegetation properties generally suggests that soil moisture for semi-arid regions is spatially random. In this presentation a new analysis of neutron probe data during summer from the Tarrawarra site near Melbourne, Australia shows persistent spatial organisation of soil moisture over several years. This suggests a link between permanent features of the catchment (e.g. soil properties) and soil moisture distribution, even though the spatial pattern of soil moisture during the 4 summers monitored appears spatially random. This and other data establishes a prima facie case that soil variations drive spatial variation in soil moisture. Accordingly, we used a previously published spatial scaling relationship for soil properties derived using the mARM pedogenesis model to simulate the spatial variation of soil grading. This soil grading distribution was used in the Rosetta pedotransfer model to derive a spatial distribution of soil functional properties (e.g. saturated hydraulic conductivity, porosity). These functional properties were then input into the HYDRUS-1D soil moisture model and soil moisture simulated for 3 years at daily resolution. The HYDRUS model used had previously been calibrated to field observed soil moisture data at our SASMAS field site. The scaling behaviour of soil moisture derived from this modelling will be discussed and compared with observed data from our SASMAS field sites.

D Reconstruction and Visualization of Cultural Heritage: Analyzing Our Legacy Through Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Gonzálvez, P.; Muñoz-Nieto, A. L.; del Pozo, S.; Sanchez-Aparicio, L. J.; Gonzalez-Aguilera, D.; Micoli, L.; Gonizzi Barsanti, S.; Guidi, G.; Mills, J.; Fieber, K.; Haynes, I.; Hejmanowska, B.

2017-02-01

Temporal analyses and multi-temporal 3D reconstruction are fundamental for the preservation and maintenance of all forms of Cultural Heritage (CH) and are the basis for decisions related to interventions and promotion. Introducing the fourth dimension of time into three-dimensional geometric modelling of real data allows the creation of a multi-temporal representation of a site. In this way, scholars from various disciplines (surveyors, geologists, archaeologists, architects, philologists, etc.) are provided with a new set of tools and working methods to support the study of the evolution of heritage sites, both to develop hypotheses about the past and to model likely future developments. The capacity to "see" the dynamic evolution of CH assets across different spatial scales (e.g. building, site, city or territory) compressed in diachronic model, affords the possibility to better understand the present status of CH according to its history. However, there are numerous challenges in order to carry out 4D modelling and the requisite multi-data source integration. It is necessary to identify the specifications, needs and requirements of the CH community to understand the required levels of 4D model information. In this way, it is possible to determine the optimum material and technologies to be utilised at different CH scales, as well as the data management and visualization requirements. This manuscript aims to provide a comprehensive approach for CH time-varying representations, analysis and visualization across different working scales and environments: rural landscape, urban landscape and architectural scales. Within this aim, the different available metric data sources are systemized and evaluated in terms of their suitability.

Long-term lesser prairie-chicken nest ecology in response to grassland management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fritts, Sarah R.; Grisham, Blake A.; Haukos, David A.; Boal, Clint W.; Patten, Michael; Wolfe, Don H.; Dixon, Charles; Cox, Robert D.; Heck, Willard R.

2016-01-01

Long-term population and range declines from habitat loss and fragmentation caused the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) to be a species of concern throughout its range. Current lesser prairie-chicken range in New Mexico and Texas is partially restricted to sand shinnery oak (Quercus havardii; hereafter shinnery oak) prairies, on which cattle grazing is the main socioeconomic driver for private landowners. Cattle producers within shinnery oak prairies often focus land management on shrub eradication using the herbicide tebuthiuron to promote grass production for forage; however, herbicide application alone, and in combination with grazing, may affect nest site selection and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens through the reduction of shinnery oak and native grasses. We used a controlled, paired, completely randomized design study to assess the influence of grazing and tebuthiuron application and their combined use on nest site selection and nest survival from 2001 to 2010 in Roosevelt County, New Mexico, USA at 2 spatial scales (i.e., treatment and microhabitat) in 4 treatments: tebuthiuron with grazing, tebuthiuron without grazing, no tebuthiuron with grazing, and a control of no tebuthiuron and no grazing. Grazing treatment was a short-duration system in which plots were grazed once during the dormant season and once during the growing season. Stocking rate was calculated each season based on measured forage production and applied to remove ≤25% of available herbaceous material per season. At the treatment scale, we compared nest site selection among treatments using 1-way χ2 tests and nest survival among treatments using a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK. At the microhabitat scale, we identified important habitat predictors of nest site selection and nest survival using logistic regression and a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK, respectively. Females typically used treatments as expected and we did not detect trends in selection. Nest survival did not differ among treatments. At the microhabitat scale, nest sites had less bare ground (P = 0.001) and greater angles of obstruction (P ≤ 0.001) compared to random sites. There was a high degree of model selection uncertainty among our candidate models at the microhabitat scale and survival estimates were similar among habitat covariates. Results suggest a tebuthiuron application rate of 0.60 kg/ha, short-duration grazing, and a combination of these management techniques were not detrimental to lesser prairie-chicken nest site selection or nest survival. However, intensified management that increases bare ground or reduces overhead cover may negatively affect lesser prairie-chicken nesting habitat and nest survival.

The influence of model grid resolution on estimation of national scale nitrogen deposition and exceedance of critical levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dore, A. J.; Kryza, M.; Hall, J. R.; Hallsworth, S.; Keller, V. J. D.; Vieno, M.; Sutton, M. A.

2011-12-01

The Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange model (FRAME) has been applied to model the spatial distribution of nitrogen deposition and air concentration over the UK at a 1 km spatial resolution. The modelled deposition and concentration data were gridded at resolutions of 1 km, 5 km and 50 km to test the sensitivity of calculations of the exceedance of critical loads for nitrogen deposition to the deposition data resolution. The modelled concentrations of NO2 were validated by comparison with measurements from the rural sites in the national monitoring network and were found to achieve better agreement with the high resolution 1 km data. High resolution plots were found to represent a more physically realistic distribution of nitrogen air concentrations and deposition resulting from use of 1 km resolution precipitation and emissions data as compared to 5 km resolution data. Summary statistics for national scale exceedance of the critical load for nitrogen deposition were not highly sensitive to the grid resolution of the deposition data but did show greater area exceedance with coarser grid resolution due to spatial averaging of high nitrogen deposition hot spots. Local scale deposition at individual Sites of Special Scientific Interest and high precipitation upland sites was sensitive to choice of grid resolution of deposition data. Use of high resolution data tended to generate lower deposition values in sink areas for nitrogen dry deposition (Sites of Scientific Interest) and higher values in high precipitation upland areas. In areas with generally low exceedance (Scotland) and for certain vegetation types (montane), the exceedance statistics were more sensitive to model data resolution.

The influence of model grid resolution on estimation of national scale nitrogen deposition and exceedance of critical loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dore, A. J.; Kryza, M.; Hall, J. R.; Hallsworth, S.; Keller, V. J. D.; Vieno, M.; Sutton, M. A.

2012-05-01

The Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange model (FRAME) was applied to model the spatial distribution of reactive nitrogen deposition and air concentration over the United Kingdom at a 1 km spatial resolution. The modelled deposition and concentration data were gridded at resolutions of 1 km, 5 km and 50 km to test the sensitivity of calculations of the exceedance of critical loads for nitrogen deposition to the deposition data resolution. The modelled concentrations of NO2 were validated by comparison with measurements from the rural sites in the national monitoring network and were found to achieve better agreement with the high resolution 1 km data. High resolution plots were found to represent a more physically realistic distribution of reactive nitrogen air concentrations and deposition resulting from use of 1 km resolution precipitation and emissions data as compared to 5 km resolution data. Summary statistics for national scale exceedance of the critical load for nitrogen deposition were not highly sensitive to the grid resolution of the deposition data but did show greater area exceedance with coarser grid resolution due to spatial averaging of high nitrogen deposition hot spots. Local scale deposition at individual Sites of Special Scientific Interest and high precipitation upland sites was sensitive to choice of grid resolution of deposition data. Use of high resolution data tended to generate lower deposition values in sink areas for nitrogen dry deposition (Sites of Scientific Interest) and higher values in high precipitation upland areas. In areas with generally low exceedance (Scotland) and for certain vegetation types (montane), the exceedance statistics were more sensitive to model data resolution.

Financial management of a large multisite randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Sheffet, Alice J; Flaxman, Linda; Tom, MeeLee; Hughes, Susan E; Longbottom, Mary E; Howard, Virginia J; Marler, John R; Brott, Thomas G

2014-08-01

The Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy versus Stenting Trial (CREST) received five years' funding ($21 112 866) from the National Institutes of Health to compare carotid stenting to surgery for stroke prevention in 2500 randomized participants at 40 sites. Herein we evaluate the change in the CREST budget from a fixed to variable-cost model and recommend strategies for the financial management of large-scale clinical trials. Projections of the original grant's fixed-cost model were compared to the actual costs of the revised variable-cost model. The original grant's fixed-cost budget included salaries, fringe benefits, and other direct and indirect costs. For the variable-cost model, the costs were actual payments to the clinical sites and core centers based upon actual trial enrollment. We compared annual direct and indirect costs and per-patient cost for both the fixed and variable models. Differences between clinical site and core center expenditures were also calculated. Using a variable-cost budget for clinical sites, funding was extended by no-cost extension from five to eight years. Randomizing sites tripled from 34 to 109. Of the 2500 targeted sample size, 138 (5·5%) were randomized during the first five years and 1387 (55·5%) during the no-cost extension. The actual per-patient costs of the variable model were 9% ($13 845) of the projected per-patient costs ($152 992) of the fixed model. Performance-based budgets conserve funding, promote compliance, and allow for additional sites at modest additional cost. Costs of large-scale clinical trials can thus be reduced through effective management without compromising scientific integrity. © 2014 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2014 World Stroke Organization.

Spatially explicit modelling of forest structure and function using airborne lidar and hyperspectral remote sensing data combined with micrometeorological measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Valerie Anne

This research models canopy-scale photosynthesis at the Groundhog River Flux Site through the integration of high-resolution airborne remote sensing data and micrometeorological measurements collected from a flux tower. Light detection and ranging (lidar) data are analysed to derive models of tree structure, including: canopy height, basal area, crown closure, and average aboveground biomass. Lidar and hyperspectral remote sensing data are used to model canopy chlorophyll (Chl) and carotenoid concentrations (known to be good indicators of photosynthesis). The integration of lidar and hyperspectral data is applied to derive spatially explicit models of the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) absorbed by the canopy as well as a species classification for the site. These products are integrated with flux tower meteorological measurements (i.e., air temperature and global solar radiation) collected on a continuous basis over 2004 to apply the C-Fix model of carbon exchange to the site. Results demonstrate that high resolution lidar and lidar-hyperspectral integration techniques perform well in the boreal mixedwood environment. Lidar models are well correlated with forest structure, despite the complexities introduced in the mixedwood case (e.g., r2=0.84, 0.89, 0.60, and 0.91, for mean dominant height, basal area, crown closure, and average aboveground biomass). Strong relationships are also shown for canopy scale chlorophyll/carotenoid concentration analysis using integrated lidar-hyperspectral techniques (e.g., r2=0.84, 0.84, and 0.82 for Chl(a), Chl(a+b), and Chl(b)). Examination of the spatially explicit models of fPAR reveal distinct spatial patterns which become increasingly apparent throughout the season due to the variation in species groupings (and canopy chlorophyll concentration) within the 1 km radius surrounding the flux tower. Comparison of results from the modified local-scale version of the C-Fix model to tower gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) demonstrate a good correlation to flux tower measured GEP (r2=0.70 for 10 day averages), with the largest deviations occurring in June-July. This research has direct benefits for forest inventory mapping and management practices; mapping of canopy physiology and biochemical constituents related to forest health; and scaling and direct comparison to large resolution satellite models to help bridge the gap between the local-scale measurements at flux towers and predictions derived from continental-scale carbon models.

Genome-scale dynamic modeling of the competition between Rhodoferax and Geobacter in anoxic subsurface environments.

PubMed

Zhuang, Kai; Izallalen, Mounir; Mouser, Paula; Richter, Hanno; Risso, Carla; Mahadevan, Radhakrishnan; Lovley, Derek R

2011-02-01

The advent of rapid complete genome sequencing, and the potential to capture this information in genome-scale metabolic models, provide the possibility of comprehensively modeling microbial community interactions. For example, Rhodoferax and Geobacter species are acetate-oxidizing Fe(III)-reducers that compete in anoxic subsurface environments and this competition may have an influence on the in situ bioremediation of uranium-contaminated groundwater. Therefore, genome-scale models of Geobacter sulfurreducens and Rhodoferax ferrireducens were used to evaluate how Geobacter and Rhodoferax species might compete under diverse conditions found in a uranium-contaminated aquifer in Rifle, CO. The model predicted that at the low rates of acetate flux expected under natural conditions at the site, Rhodoferax will outcompete Geobacter as long as sufficient ammonium is available. The model also predicted that when high concentrations of acetate are added during in situ bioremediation, Geobacter species would predominate, consistent with field-scale observations. This can be attributed to the higher expected growth yields of Rhodoferax and the ability of Geobacter to fix nitrogen. The modeling predicted relative proportions of Geobacter and Rhodoferax in geochemically distinct zones of the Rifle site that were comparable to those that were previously documented with molecular techniques. The model also predicted that under nitrogen fixation, higher carbon and electron fluxes would be diverted toward respiration rather than biomass formation in Geobacter, providing a potential explanation for enhanced in situ U(VI) reduction in low-ammonium zones. These results show that genome-scale modeling can be a useful tool for predicting microbial interactions in subsurface environments and shows promise for designing bioremediation strategies.

Improving UK Chalk hydrometeorology across spatial scales using a small hydrometeorological network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosolem, Rafael; Iwema, Joost; Rahman, Mostaquimur; Desilets, Darin; Koltermann da Silva, Juliana

2016-04-01

Chalk in the UK acts as a primary aquifer providing up to 80% of the public water supply locally. Chalk outcrops are located over most of southern and eastern England. Despite its importance, the characterization of Chalk in hydrometeorological models is still very limited. There is a need for a comprehensive and coherent integration of observations and modeling efforts across spatial scales for better understanding Chalk hydrometeorology. Here we introduce the "A MUlti-scale Soil moisture-Evapotranspiration Dynamics" (AMUSED) project. AMUSED goal is to better identify the key dominant processes controlling changes in soil moisture and surface fluxes (e.g., evapotranspiration) across spatial scales by combining ground-based observations with hydrometeorological models and satellite remote sensing products. The AMUSED observational platform consists of three sites located in Upper Chalk region of the Lambourn Catchment located in southern England covering approximately 2 square-km characterized by distinct combinations of soil and vegetation types. The network includes standard meteorological measurements, an eddy covariance system for turbulent fluxes and cosmic-ray neutron sensors for integrated soil moisture estimates at intermediate scales. Here we present our initial results from our three sites.

Downscaling near-surface soil moisture from field to plot scale: A comparative analysis under different environmental conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasta, Paolo; Penna, Daniele; Brocca, Luca; Zuecco, Giulia; Romano, Nunzio

2018-02-01

Indirect measurements of field-scale (hectometer grid-size) spatial-average near-surface soil moisture are becoming increasingly available by exploiting new-generation ground-based and satellite sensors. Nonetheless, modeling applications for water resources management require knowledge of plot-scale (1-5 m grid-size) soil moisture by using measurements through spatially-distributed sensor network systems. Since efforts to fulfill such requirements are not always possible due to time and budget constraints, alternative approaches are desirable. In this study, we explore the feasibility of determining spatial-average soil moisture and soil moisture patterns given the knowledge of long-term records of climate forcing data and topographic attributes. A downscaling approach is proposed that couples two different models: the Eco-Hydrological Bucket and Equilibrium Moisture from Topography. This approach helps identify the relative importance of two compound topographic indexes in explaining the spatial variation of soil moisture patterns, indicating valley- and hillslope-dependence controlled by lateral flow and radiative processes, respectively. The integrated model also detects temporal instability if the dominant type of topographic dependence changes with spatial-average soil moisture. Model application was carried out at three sites in different parts of Italy, each characterized by different environmental conditions. Prior calibration was performed by using sparse and sporadic soil moisture values measured by portable time domain reflectometry devices. Cross-site comparisons offer different interpretations in the explained spatial variation of soil moisture patterns, with time-invariant valley-dependence (site in northern Italy) and hillslope-dependence (site in southern Italy). The sources of soil moisture spatial variation at the site in central Italy are time-variant within the year and the seasonal change of topographic dependence can be conveniently correlated to a climate indicator such as the aridity index.

Ground-truthing electrical resistivity methods in support of submarine groundwater discharge studies: Examples from Hawaii, Washington, and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Cordell; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Richardson, Christina M.; Smith, Christopher G.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Ganguli, Priya M.

2015-01-01

Rigorous ground-truthing at each field site showed that multi-channel electrcial resistivity techniques can reproduce the scales and dynamics of a seepage field when such data are correctly collected, and when the model inversions are tuned to field site characteristics. Such information can provide a unique perspective on the scales and dynamics of exchange processes within a coastal aquifer—information essential to scientists and resource managers alike.

Thresholds of understanding: Exploring assumptions of scale invariance vs. scale dependence in global biogeochemical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieder, W. R.; Bradford, M.; Koven, C.; Talbot, J. M.; Wood, S.; Chadwick, O.

2016-12-01

High uncertainty and low confidence in terrestrial carbon (C) cycle projections reflect the incomplete understanding of how best to represent biologically-driven C cycle processes at global scales. Ecosystem theories, and consequently biogeochemical models, are based on the assumption that different belowground communities function similarly and interact with the abiotic environment in consistent ways. This assumption of "Scale Invariance" posits that environmental conditions will change the rate of ecosystem processes, but the biotic response will be consistent across sites. Indeed, cross-site comparisons and global-scale analyses suggest that climate strongly controls rates of litter mass loss and soil organic matter turnover. Alternatively, activities of belowground communities are shaped by particular local environmental conditions, such as climate and edaphic conditions. Under this assumption of "Scale Dependence", relationships generated by evolutionary trade-offs in acquiring resources and withstanding environmental stress dictate the activities of belowground communities and their functional response to environmental change. Similarly, local edaphic conditions (e.g. permafrost soils or reactive minerals that physicochemically stabilize soil organic matter on mineral surfaces) may strongly constrain the availability of substrates that biota decompose—altering the trajectory of soil biogeochemical response to perturbations. Identifying when scale invariant assumptions hold vs. where local variation in biotic communities or edaphic conditions must be considered is critical to advancing our understanding and representation of belowground processes in the face of environmental change. Here we introduce data sets that support assumptions of scale invariance and scale dependent processes and discuss their application in global-scale biogeochemical models. We identify particular domains over which assumptions of scale invariance may be appropriate and potential thresholds where shifts in ecosystem function may be expected. Finally, we discuss the mechanistic insight that can be applied in process-based models and datasets that can evaluate models across spatial and temporal scales.

The feasibility of using a universal Random Forest model to map tree height across different locations and vegetation types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Y.; Guo, Q.; Jin, S.; Gao, S.; Hu, T.; Liu, J.; Xue, B. L.

2017-12-01

Tree height is an important forest structure parameter for understanding forest ecosystem and improving the accuracy of global carbon stock quantification. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) can provide accurate tree height measurements, but its use in large-scale tree height mapping is limited by the spatial availability. Random Forest (RF) has been one of the most commonly used algorithms for mapping large-scale tree height through the fusion of LiDAR and other remotely sensed datasets. However, how the variances in vegetation types, geolocations and spatial scales of different study sites influence the RF results is still a question that needs to be addressed. In this study, we selected 16 study sites across four vegetation types in United States (U.S.) fully covered by airborne LiDAR data, and the area of each site was 100 km2. The LiDAR-derived canopy height models (CHMs) were used as the ground truth to train the RF algorithm to predict canopy height from other remotely sensed variables, such as Landsat TM imagery, terrain information and climate surfaces. To address the abovementioned question, 22 models were run under different combinations of vegetation types, geolocations and spatial scales. The results show that the RF model trained at one specific location or vegetation type cannot be used to predict tree height in other locations or vegetation types. However, by training the RF model using samples from all locations and vegetation types, a universal model can be achieved for predicting canopy height across different locations and vegetation types. Moreover, the number of training samples and the targeted spatial resolution of the canopy height product have noticeable influence on the RF prediction accuracy.

Critical scales to explain urban hydrological response: an application in Cranbrook, London

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristiano, Elena; ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Gaitan, Santiago; Ochoa Rodriguez, Susana; van de Giesen, Nick

2018-04-01

Rainfall variability in space and time, in relation to catchment characteristics and model complexity, plays an important role in explaining the sensitivity of hydrological response in urban areas. In this work we present a new approach to classify rainfall variability in space and time and we use this classification to investigate rainfall aggregation effects on urban hydrological response. Nine rainfall events, measured with a dual polarimetric X-Band radar instrument at the CAESAR site (Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research, NL), were aggregated in time and space in order to obtain different resolution combinations. The aim of this work was to investigate the influence that rainfall and catchment scales have on hydrological response in urban areas. Three dimensionless scaling factors were introduced to investigate the interactions between rainfall and catchment scale and rainfall input resolution in relation to the performance of the model. Results showed that (1) rainfall classification based on cluster identification well represents the storm core, (2) aggregation effects are stronger for rainfall than flow, (3) model complexity does not have a strong influence compared to catchment and rainfall scales for this case study, and (4) scaling factors allow the adequate rainfall resolution to be selected to obtain a given level of accuracy in the calculation of hydrological response.

Crash Frequency Modeling Using Real-Time Environmental and Traffic Data and Unbalanced Panel Data Models

PubMed Central

Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

2016-01-01

Traffic and environmental conditions (e.g., weather conditions), which frequently change with time, have a significant impact on crash occurrence. Traditional crash frequency models with large temporal scales and aggregated variables are not sufficient to capture the time-varying nature of driving environmental factors, causing significant loss of critical information on crash frequency modeling. This paper aims at developing crash frequency models with refined temporal scales for complex driving environments, with such an effort providing more detailed and accurate crash risk information which can allow for more effective and proactive traffic management and law enforcement intervention. Zero-inflated, negative binomial (ZINB) models with site-specific random effects are developed with unbalanced panel data to analyze hourly crash frequency on highway segments. The real-time driving environment information, including traffic, weather and road surface condition data, sourced primarily from the Road Weather Information System, is incorporated into the models along with site-specific road characteristics. The estimation results of unbalanced panel data ZINB models suggest there are a number of factors influencing crash frequency, including time-varying factors (e.g., visibility and hourly traffic volume) and site-varying factors (e.g., speed limit). The study confirms the unique significance of the real-time weather, road surface condition and traffic data to crash frequency modeling. PMID:27322306

A comparison of single- and multi-site calibration and validation: a case study of SWAT in the Miyun Reservoir watershed, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Jianwen; Shen, Zhenyao; Yan, Tiezhu

2017-09-01

An essential task in evaluating global water resource and pollution problems is to obtain the optimum set of parameters in hydrological models through calibration and validation. For a large-scale watershed, single-site calibration and validation may ignore spatial heterogeneity and may not meet the needs of the entire watershed. The goal of this study is to apply a multi-site calibration and validation of the Soil andWater Assessment Tool (SWAT), using the observed flow data at three monitoring sites within the Baihe watershed of the Miyun Reservoir watershed, China. Our results indicate that the multi-site calibration parameter values are more reasonable than those obtained from single-site calibrations. These results are mainly due to significant differences in the topographic factors over the large-scale area, human activities and climate variability. The multi-site method involves the division of the large watershed into smaller watersheds, and applying the calibrated parameters of the multi-site calibration to the entire watershed. It was anticipated that this case study could provide experience of multi-site calibration in a large-scale basin, and provide a good foundation for the simulation of other pollutants in followup work in the Miyun Reservoir watershed and other similar large areas.

Large-scale, high-performance and cloud-enabled multi-model analytics experiments in the context of the Earth System Grid Federation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiore, S.; Płóciennik, M.; Doutriaux, C.; Blanquer, I.; Barbera, R.; Williams, D. N.; Anantharaj, V. G.; Evans, B. J. K.; Salomoni, D.; Aloisio, G.

2017-12-01

The increased models resolution in the development of comprehensive Earth System Models is rapidly leading to very large climate simulations output that pose significant scientific data management challenges in terms of data sharing, processing, analysis, visualization, preservation, curation, and archiving.Large scale global experiments for Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) have led to the development of the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a federated data infrastructure which has been serving the CMIP5 experiment, providing access to 2PB of data for the IPCC Assessment Reports. In such a context, running a multi-model data analysis experiment is very challenging, as it requires the availability of a large amount of data related to multiple climate models simulations and scientific data management tools for large-scale data analytics. To address these challenges, a case study on climate models intercomparison data analysis has been defined and implemented in the context of the EU H2020 INDIGO-DataCloud project. The case study has been tested and validated on CMIP5 datasets, in the context of a large scale, international testbed involving several ESGF sites (LLNL, ORNL and CMCC), one orchestrator site (PSNC) and one more hosting INDIGO PaaS services (UPV). Additional ESGF sites, such as NCI (Australia) and a couple more in Europe, are also joining the testbed. The added value of the proposed solution is summarized in the following: it implements a server-side paradigm which limits data movement; it relies on a High-Performance Data Analytics (HPDA) stack to address performance; it exploits the INDIGO PaaS layer to support flexible, dynamic and automated deployment of software components; it provides user-friendly web access based on the INDIGO Future Gateway; and finally it integrates, complements and extends the support currently available through ESGF. Overall it provides a new "tool" for climate scientists to run multi-model experiments. At the time this contribution is being written, the proposed testbed represents the first implementation of a distributed large-scale, multi-model experiment in the ESGF/CMIP context, joining together server-side approaches for scientific data analysis, HPDA frameworks, end-to-end workflow management, and cloud computing.

Scale-dependent segregation of seeders and resprouters in cork oak (Quercus suber) forests.

PubMed

Coca, M; Pausas, J G

2012-02-01

Recent studies showed that disturbances and water availability determine the richness among plants with different post-fire strategies of Mediterranean-type ecosystems. The aim of this study was to determine whether or not the scale of analysis has an influence on the effects of these factors and, therefore, on the segregation of the dominant post-fire strategies, obligate seeders and obligate resprouters, and facultative species. We recorded all woody species and geographical features on 94 (75 m(2)) plots of cork oak woodlands in the southern Iberian Peninsula. For each regenerative type (resprouters, seeders and species with both traits--facultative species), we tested the relationship between the number of species and the predictors using a generalised linear mixed model. The fixed predictor considered at the large scale was altitude, and fixed predictors considered at the local scale were aspect (north/south) and disturbance (fire and clearing by heavy machinery; yes/no). The random predictor was the factor of site. When this factor did not have significant effect for some regenerative types, these relationships was tested using a generalised linear model. Resprouting species were most represented at lower altitudes and in undisturbed sites, while seeders were also at lower altitudes but mostly on south-facing slopes, especially south-facing disturbed sites. For facultative species, site is the most important variable. The proportion of seeders from the total species is not related to altitude, but it is related to disturbance and aspect. These results suggest that there is no segregation of the richness of seeders and resprouters at the large scale (altitudinal gradient). Differences appeared at the local scale (aspect and disturbance).

Compulsive use of social networking sites in Belgium: prevalence, profile, and the role of attitude toward work and school.

PubMed

De Cock, Rozane; Vangeel, Jolien; Klein, Annabelle; Minotte, Pascal; Rosas, Omar; Meerkerk, Gert-Jan

2014-03-01

A representative sample (n=1,000) of the Belgian population aged 18 years and older filled out an online questionnaire on their Internet use in general and their use of social networking sites (SNS) in particular. We measured total time spent on the Internet, time spent on SNS, number of SNS profiles, gender, age, schooling level, income, job occupation, and leisure activities, and we integrated several psychological scales such as the Quick Big Five and the Mastery Scale. Hierarchical multiple regression modeling shows that gender and age explain an important part of the compulsive SNS score (5%) as well as psychological scales (20%), but attitude toward school (additional 3%) and income (2.5%) also add to explained variance in predictive models of compulsive SNS use.

Differentiating Impacts of Watershed Development from Superfund Sites on Stream Macroinvertebrates

EPA Science Inventory

Urbanization effect models were developed and verified at whole watershed scales to predict and differentiate between effects on aquatic life from diffuse, non-point source (NPS) urbanization in the watershed and effects of known local, site-specific origin point sources, contami...

The Relative Importance of the Vadose Zone in Multimedia Risk Assessment Modeling Applied at a National Scale: An Analysis of Benzene Using 3MRA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babendreier, J. E.

2002-05-01

Evaluating uncertainty and parameter sensitivity in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-media constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. The challenge of examining ever more complex, integrated, higher-order models is a formidable one, particularly in regulatory settings applied on a national scale. Quantitative assessment of uncertainty and sensitivity within integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a systematic, comparative approach coupled with sufficient computational power. The Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment Model (3MRA) is an important code being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in site-scale risk assessment (e.g. hazardous waste management facilities). The model currently entails over 700 variables, 185 of which are explicitly stochastic. The 3MRA can start with a chemical concentration in a waste management unit (WMU). It estimates the release and transport of the chemical throughout the environment, and predicts associated exposure and risk. The 3MRA simulates multimedia (air, water, soil, sediments), pollutant fate and transport, multipathway exposure routes (food ingestion, water ingestion, soil ingestion, air inhalation, etc.), multireceptor exposures (resident, gardener, farmer, fisher, ecological habitats and populations), and resulting risk (human cancer and non-cancer effects, ecological population and community effects). The 3MRA collates the output for an overall national risk assessment, offering a probabilistic strategy as a basis for regulatory decisions. To facilitate model execution of 3MRA for purposes of conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, a PC-based supercomputer cluster was constructed. Design of SuperMUSE, a 125 GHz Windows-based Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation is described, along with the conceptual layout of an accompanying java-based paralleling software toolset. Preliminary work is also reported for a scenario involving Benzene disposal that describes the relative importance of the vadose zone in driving risk levels for ecological receptors and human health. Incorporating landfills, waste piles, aerated tanks, surface impoundments, and land application units, the site-based data used in the analysis included 201 national facilities representing 419 site-WMU combinations.

Dynamic occupancy models for explicit colonization processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Broms, Kristin M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Altwegg, Res; Conquest, Loveday

2016-01-01

The dynamic, multi-season occupancy model framework has become a popular tool for modeling open populations with occupancies that change over time through local colonizations and extinctions. However, few versions of the model relate these probabilities to the occupancies of neighboring sites or patches. We present a modeling framework that incorporates this information and is capable of describing a wide variety of spatiotemporal colonization and extinction processes. A key feature of the model is that it is based on a simple set of small-scale rules describing how the process evolves. The result is a dynamic process that can account for complicated large-scale features. In our model, a site is more likely to be colonized if more of its neighbors were previously occupied and if it provides more appealing environmental characteristics than its neighboring sites. Additionally, a site without occupied neighbors may also become colonized through the inclusion of a long-distance dispersal process. Although similar model specifications have been developed for epidemiological applications, ours formally accounts for detectability using the well-known occupancy modeling framework. After demonstrating the viability and potential of this new form of dynamic occupancy model in a simulation study, we use it to obtain inference for the ongoing Common Myna (Acridotheres tristis) invasion in South Africa. Our results suggest that the Common Myna continues to enlarge its distribution and its spread via short distance movement, rather than long-distance dispersal. Overall, this new modeling framework provides a powerful tool for managers examining the drivers of colonization including short- vs. long-distance dispersal, habitat quality, and distance from source populations.

Upscaling Empirically Based Conceptualisations to Model Tropical Dominant Hydrological Processes for Historical Land Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toohey, R.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E.; Jones, J.

2009-12-01

Surface runoff and percolation to ground water are two hydrological processes of concern to the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica because of their impacts on flooding and drinking water contamination. As per legislation, the Costa Rican Government funds land use management from the farm to the regional scale to improve or conserve hydrological ecosystem services. In this study, we examined how land use (e.g., forest, coffee, sugar cane, and pasture) affects hydrological response at the point, plot (1 m2), and the field scale (1-6ha) to empirically conceptualize the dominant hydrological processes in each land use. Using our field data, we upscaled these conceptual processes into a physically-based distributed hydrological model at the field, watershed (130 km2), and regional (1500 km2) scales. At the point and plot scales, the presence of macropores and large roots promoted greater vertical percolation and subsurface connectivity in the forest and coffee field sites. The lack of macropores and large roots, plus the addition of management artifacts (e.g., surface compaction and a plough layer), altered the dominant hydrological processes by increasing lateral flow and surface runoff in the pasture and sugar cane field sites. Macropores and topography were major influences on runoff generation at the field scale. Also at the field scale, antecedent moisture conditions suggest a threshold behavior as a temporal control on surface runoff generation. However, in this tropical climate with very intense rainstorms, annual surface runoff was less than 10% of annual precipitation at the field scale. Significant differences in soil and hydrological characteristics observed at the point and plot scales appear to have less significance when upscaled to the field scale. At the point and plot scales, percolation acted as the dominant hydrological process in this tropical environment. However, at the field scale for sugar cane and pasture sites, saturation-excess runoff increased as irrigation intensity and duration (e.g., quantity) increased. Upscaling our conceptual models to the watershed and regional scales, historical data (1970-2004) was used to investigate whether dominant hydrological processes changed over time due to land use change. Preliminary investigations reveal much higher runoff coefficients (<30%) at the larger watershed scales. The increase in importance of runoff at the larger geographic scales suggests an emerging process and process non-linearity between the smaller and larger scales. Upscaling is an important and useful concept when investigating catchment response using the tools of field work and/or physically distributed hydrological modeling.

Match and mismatch - comparing plant phenological metrics from ground-observations and from a prognostic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutishauser, This; Stöckli, Reto; Jeanneret, François; Peñuelas, Josep

2010-05-01

Changes in the seasonality of life cycles of plants as recorded in phenological observations have been widely analysed at the species level with data available for many decades back in time. At the same time, seasonality changes in satellite-based observations and prognostic phenology models comprise information at the pixel-size or landscape scale. Change analysis of satellite-based records is restricted due to relatively short satellite records that further include gaps while model-based analyses are biased due to current model deficiencies., At 30 selected sites across Europe, we analysed three different sources of plant seasonality during the 1971-2000 period. Data consisted of (1) species-specific development stages of flowering and leave-out with different species observed at each site. (2) We used a synthetic phenological metric that integrates the common interannual phenological signal across all species at one site. (3) We estimated daily Leaf Area Index with a prognostic phenology model. The prior uncertainties of the model's empirical parameter space are constrained by assimilating the Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We extracted the day of year when the 25%, 50% and 75% thresholds were passed each spring. The question arises how the three phenological signals compare and correlate across climate zones in Europe. Is there a match between single species observations, species-based ground-observed metrics and the landscape-scale prognostic model? Are there single key-species across Europe that best represent a landscape scale measure from the prognostic model? Can one source substitute another and serve as proxy-data? What can we learn from potential mismatches? Focusing on changes in spring this contribution presents first results of an ongoing comparison study from a number of European test sites that will be extended to the pan-European phenological database Cost725 and PEP725.

Vadose Zone Transport Field Study: Summary Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ward, Andy L.; Conrad, Mark E.; Daily, William D.

2006-07-31

From FY 2000 through FY 2003, a series of vadose zone transport field experiments were conducted as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Groundwater/Vadose Zone Integration Project Science and Technology Project, now known as the Remediation and Closure Science Project, and managed by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The series of experiments included two major field campaigns, one at a 299-E24-11 injection test site near PUREX and a second at a clastic dike site off Army Loop Road. The goals of these experiments were to improve our understanding of vadose zone transport processes; to develop data sets tomore » validate and calibrate vadose zone flow and transport models; and to identify advanced monitoring techniques useful for evaluating flow-and-transport mechanisms and delineating contaminant plumes in the vadose zone at the Hanford Site. This report summarizes the key findings from the field studies and demonstrates how data collected from these studies are being used to improve conceptual models and develop numerical models of flow and transport in Hanford’s vadose zone. Results of these tests have led to a better understanding of the vadose zone. Fine-scale geologic heterogeneities, including grain fabric and lamination, were observed to have a strong effect on the large-scale behavior of contaminant plumes, primarily through increased lateral spreading resulting from anisotropy. Conceptual models have been updated to include lateral spreading and numerical models of unsaturated flow and transport have revised accordingly. A new robust model based on the concept of a connectivity tensor was developed to describe saturation-dependent anisotropy in strongly heterogeneous soils and has been incorporated into PNNL’s Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP) simulator. Application to field-scale transport problems have led to a better understanding plume behavior at a number of sites where lateral spreading may have dominated waste migration (e.g. BC Cribs and Trenches). The improved models have been also coupled with inverse models and newly-developed parameter scaling techniques to allow estimation of field-scale and effective transport parameters for the vadose zone. The development and utility of pedotransfer functions for describing fine-scale hydrogeochemical heterogeneity and for incorporating this heterogeneity into reactive transport models was explored. An approach based on grain-size statistics appears feasible and has been used to describe heterogeneity in hydraulic properties and sorption properties, such as the cation exchange capacity and the specific surface area of Hanford sediments. This work has also led to the development of inverse modeling capabilities for time-dependent, subsurface, reactive transport with transient flow fields using an automated optimization algorithm. In addition, a number of geophysical techniques investigated for their potential to provide detailed information on the subtle changes in lithology and bedding surfaces; plume delineation, leak detection. High-resolution resistivity is now being used for detecting saline plumes at several waste sites at Hanford, including tank farms. Results from the field studies and associated analysis have appeared in more than 46 publications generated over the past 4 years. These publications include test plans and status reports, in addition to numerous technical notes and peer reviewed papers.« less

An integrated assessment of location-dependent scaling for microalgae biofuel production facilities

DOE PAGES

Coleman, André M.; Abodeely, Jared M.; Skaggs, Richard L.; ...

2014-06-19

Successful development of a large-scale microalgae-based biofuels industry requires comprehensive analysis and understanding of the feedstock supply chain—from facility siting and design through processing and upgrading of the feedstock to a fuel product. The evolution from pilot-scale production facilities to energy-scale operations presents many multi-disciplinary challenges, including a sustainable supply of water and nutrients, operational and infrastructure logistics, and economic competitiveness with petroleum-based fuels. These challenges are partially addressed by applying the Integrated Assessment Framework (IAF) – an integrated multi-scale modeling, analysis, and data management suite – to address key issues in developing and operating an open-pond microalgae production facility.more » This is done by analyzing how variability and uncertainty over space and through time affect feedstock production rates, and determining the site-specific “optimum” facility scale to minimize capital and operational expenses. This approach explicitly and systematically assesses the interdependence of biofuel production potential, associated resource requirements, and production system design trade-offs. To provide a baseline analysis, the IAF was applied in this paper to a set of sites in the southeastern U.S. with the potential to cumulatively produce 5 billion gallons per year. Finally, the results indicate costs can be reduced by scaling downstream processing capabilities to fit site-specific growing conditions, available and economically viable resources, and specific microalgal strains.« less

On the design of paleoenvironmental data networks for estimating large-scale patterns of climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutzbach, J. E.; Guetter, P. J.

1980-09-01

Guidelines are determined for the spatial density and location of climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) that are appropriate for estimating the continental- to hemispheric-scale pattern of atmospheric circulation (sea-level pressure). Because instrumental records of temperature and precipitation simulate the climatic information that is contained in certain paleoenvironmental records (tree-ring, pollen, and written-documentary records, for example), these guidelines provide useful sampling strategies for reconstructing the pattern of atmospheric circulation from paleoenvironmental records. The statistical analysis uses a multiple linear regression model. The sampling strategies consist of changes in site density (from 0.5 to 2.5 sites per million square kilometers) and site location (from western North American sites only to sites in Japan, North America, and western Europe) of the climatic data. The results showed that the accuracy of specification of the pattern of sea-level pressure: (1) is improved if sites with climatic records are spread as uniformly as possible over the area of interest; (2) increases with increasing site density-at least up to the maximum site density used in this study; (3) is improved if sites cover an area that extends considerably beyond the limits of the area of interest. The accuracy of specification was lower for independent data than for the data that were used to develop the regression model; some skill was found for almost all sampling strategies.

The Temporal Dynamics of Spatial Patterns of Observed Soil Moisture Interpreted Using the Hydrus 1-D Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Willgoose, G. R.; Saco, P. M.

2009-12-01

This paper investigates the soil moisture dynamics over two subcatchments (Stanley and Krui) in the Goulburn River in NSW during a three year period (2005-2007) using the Hydrus 1-D unsaturated soil water flow model. The model was calibrated to the seven Stanley microcatchment sites (1 sqkm site) using continuous time surface 30cm and full profile soil moisture measurements. Soil type, leaf area index and soil depth were found to be the key parameters changing model fit to the soil moisture time series. They either shifted the time series up or down, changed the steepness of dry-down recessions or determined the lowest point of soil moisture dry-down respectively. Good correlations were obtained between observed and simulated soil water storage (R=0.8-0.9) when calibrated parameters for one site were applied to the other sites. Soil type was also found to be the main determinant (after rainfall) of the mean of modelled soil moisture time series. Simulations of top 30cm were better than those of the whole soil profile. Within the Stanley microcatchment excellent soil moisture matches could be generated simply by adjusting the mean of soil moisture up or down slightly. Only minor modification of soil properties from site to site enable good fits for all of the Stanley sites. We extended the predictions of soil moisture to a larger spatial scale of the Krui catchment (sites up to 30km distant from Stanley) using soil and vegetation parameters from Stanley but the locally recorded rainfall at the soil moisture measurement site. The results were encouraging (R=0.7~0.8). These results show that it is possible to use a calibrated soil moisture model to extrapolate the soil moisture to other sites for a catchment with an area of up to 1000km2. This paper demonstrates the potential usefulness of continuous time, point scale soil moisture (typical of that measured by permanently installed TDR probes) in predicting the soil wetness status over a catchment of significant size.

Modeling CO2 Storage in Fractured Reservoirs: Fracture-Matrix Interactions of Free-Phase and Dissolved CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oldenburg, C. M.; Zhou, Q.; Birkholzer, J. T.

2017-12-01

The injection of supercritical CO2 (scCO2) in fractured reservoirs has been conducted at several storage sites. However, no site-specific dual-continuum modeling for fractured reservoirs has been reported and modeling studies have generally underestimated the fracture-matrix interactions. We developed a conceptual model for enhanced CO2 storage to take into account global scCO2 migration in the fracture continuum, local storage of scCO2 and dissolved CO2 (dsCO2) in the matrix continuum, and driving forces for scCO2 invasion and dsCO2 diffusion from fractures. High-resolution discrete fracture-matrix models were developed for a column of idealized matrix blocks bounded by vertical and horizontal fractures and for a km-scale fractured reservoir. The column-scale simulation results show that equilibrium storage efficiency strongly depends on matrix entry capillary pressure and matrix-matrix connectivity while the time scale to reach equilibrium is sensitive to fracture spacing and matrix flow properties. The reservoir-scale modeling results shows that the preferential migration of scCO2 through fractures is coupled with bulk storage in the rock matrix that in turn retards the fracture scCO2 plume. We also developed unified-form diffusive flux equations to account for dsCO2 storage in brine-filled matrix blocks and found solubility trapping is significant in fractured reservoirs with low-permeability matrix.

Yield and Depth of Burial Hydrodynamic Calculations in Granodiorite: Implications for the North Korean Test Site

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

the existence of a test site body wave magnitude (mb) bias between U. S. and the former Soviet Union test sites in Nevada and Semipalatinsk . The use...YIELD AND DEPTH OF BURIAL HYDRODYNAMIC CALCULATIONS IN GRANODIORITE:IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NORTH KOREAN TEST SITE Esteban Rougier, Christopher R...Korean test site and the May 2009 test . When compared to the Denny and Johnson (1991) and to the Heard and Ackerman (1967) cavity radius scaling models

The Site-Scale Saturated Zone Flow Model for Yucca Mountain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Aziz, E.; James, S. C.; Arnold, B. W.; Zyvoloski, G. A.

2006-12-01

This presentation provides a reinterpreted conceptual model of the Yucca Mountain site-scale flow system subject to all quality assurance procedures. The results are based on a numerical model of site-scale saturated zone beneath Yucca Mountain, which is used for performance assessment predictions of radionuclide transport and to guide future data collection and modeling activities. This effort started from the ground up with a revised and updated hydrogeologic framework model, which incorporates the latest lithology data, and increased grid resolution that better resolves the hydrogeologic framework, which was updated throughout the model domain. In addition, faults are much better represented using the 250× 250- m2 spacing (compared to the previous model's 500× 500-m2 spacing). Data collected since the previous model calibration effort have been included and they comprise all Nye County water-level data through Phase IV of their Early Warning Drilling Program. Target boundary fluxes are derived from the newest (2004) Death Valley Regional Flow System model from the US Geologic Survey. A consistent weighting scheme assigns importance to each measured water-level datum and boundary flux extracted from the regional model. The numerical model is calibrated by matching these weighted water level measurements and boundary fluxes using parameter estimation techniques, along with more informal comparisons of the model to hydrologic and geochemical information. The model software (hydrologic simulation code FEHM~v2.24 and parameter estimation software PEST~v5.5) and model setup facilitates efficient calibration of multiple conceptual models. Analyses evaluate the impact of these updates and additional data on the modeled potentiometric surface and the flowpaths emanating from below the repository. After examining the heads and permeabilities obtained from the calibrated models, we present particle pathways from the proposed repository and compare them to those from the previous model calibration. Specific discharge at a point 5~km from the repository is also examined and found to be within acceptable uncertainty. The results show that updated model yields a calibration with smaller residuals than the previous model revision while ensuring that flowpaths follow measured gradients and paths derived from hydrochemical analyses. This work was supported by the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Office as part of the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program, which is managed by the U.S. Department of Energy, Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project. Sandia National Laboratories is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE AC04 94AL85000.

Spectral damping scaling factors for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rezaeian, Sanaz; Bozorgnia, Yousef; Idriss, I.M.; Campbell, Kenneth; Abrahamson, Norman; Silva, Walter

2012-01-01

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for elastic response spectra, including the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models, are typically developed at a 5% viscous damping ratio. In reality, however, structural and non-structural systems can have damping ratios other than 5%, depending on various factors such as structural types, construction materials, level of ground motion excitations, among others. This report provides the findings of a comprehensive study to develop a new model for a Damping Scaling Factor (DSF) that can be used to adjust the 5% damped spectral ordinates predicted by a GMPE to spectral ordinates with damping ratios between 0.5 to 30%. Using the updated, 2011 version of the NGA database of ground motions recorded in worldwide shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions (i.e., the NGA-West2 database), dependencies of the DSF on variables including damping ratio, spectral period, moment magnitude, source-to-site distance, duration, and local site conditions are examined. The strong influence of duration is captured by inclusion of both magnitude and distance in the DSF model. Site conditions are found to have less significant influence on DSF and are not included in the model. The proposed model for DSF provides functional forms for the median value and the logarithmic standard deviation of DSF. This model is heteroscedastic, where the variance is a function of the damping ratio. Damping Scaling Factor models are developed for the “average” horizontal ground motion components, i.e., RotD50 and GMRotI50, as well as the vertical component of ground motion.

A hierarchical Bayesian GEV model for improving local and regional flood quantile estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; Lall, Upmanu; Troy, Tara; Devineni, Naresh

2016-10-01

We estimate local and regional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters for flood frequency analysis in a multilevel, hierarchical Bayesian framework, to explicitly model and reduce uncertainties. As prior information for the model, we assume that the GEV location and scale parameters for each site come from independent log-normal distributions, whose mean parameter scales with the drainage area. From empirical and theoretical arguments, the shape parameter for each site is shrunk towards a common mean. Non-informative prior distributions are assumed for the hyperparameters and the MCMC method is used to sample from the joint posterior distribution. The model is tested using annual maximum series from 20 streamflow gauges located in an 83,000 km2 flood prone basin in Southeast Brazil. The results show a significant reduction of uncertainty estimates of flood quantile estimates over the traditional GEV model, particularly for sites with shorter records. For return periods within the range of the data (around 50 years), the Bayesian credible intervals for the flood quantiles tend to be narrower than the classical confidence limits based on the delta method. As the return period increases beyond the range of the data, the confidence limits from the delta method become unreliable and the Bayesian credible intervals provide a way to estimate satisfactory confidence bands for the flood quantiles considering parameter uncertainties and regional information. In order to evaluate the applicability of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian model for regional flood frequency analysis, we estimate flood quantiles for three randomly chosen out-of-sample sites and compare with classical estimates using the index flood method. The posterior distributions of the scaling law coefficients are used to define the predictive distributions of the GEV location and scale parameters for the out-of-sample sites given only their drainage areas and the posterior distribution of the average shape parameter is taken as the regional predictive distribution for this parameter. While the index flood method does not provide a straightforward way to consider the uncertainties in the index flood and in the regional parameters, the results obtained here show that the proposed Bayesian method is able to produce adequate credible intervals for flood quantiles that are in accordance with empirical estimates.

Atomic-scale distortion of optically activated Sm dopants identified with site-selective X-ray absorption spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishii, Masashi; Crowe, Iain F.; Halsall, Matthew P.; Hamilton, Bruce; Hu, Yongfeng; Sham, Tsun-Kong; Harako, Susumu; Zhao, Xin-Wei; Komuro, Shuji

2013-10-01

The local structure of luminescent Sm dopants was investigated using an X-ray absorption fine-structure technique with X-ray-excited optical luminescence. Because this technique evaluates X-ray absorption from luminescence, only optically active sites are analyzed. The Sm L3 near-edge spectrum contains split 5d states and a shake-up transition that are specific to luminescent Sm. Theoretical calculations using cluster models identified an atomic-scale distortion that can reproduce the split 5d states. The model with C4v local symmetry and compressive bond length of Sm-O of a six-fold oxygen (SmO6) cluster is most consistent with the experimental results.

Upscaling of soil moisture measurements in NW Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferraris, Stefano; Canone, Davide; Previati, Maurizio; Brunod, Christian; Ratto, Sara; Cauduro, Marco

2015-04-01

There is large mismatch in spatial scale between the climate and meteorological model grid, and the scale of soil and vegetation measurements. Remote sensing data can help to fit the model scale, but they cannot provide rootzone data. In this work some soil moisture datasets are analysed for the sake of providing larger scale estimation of soil moisture and water and energy fluxes. The first dataset refers to a plain site near Torino, where measurements are taken since 1997 (Baudena et al., 2012), and a mountain site close to the town. The second one is a dataset in the mountains of Valle d'Aosta (Brocca et al., 2013), where 4 years of data are available. The use of digital elevation models and vegetation maps is shown in this work. Some soil processes (e.g. Whalley et al., 2012) are usually disregarded, but in this work their possible impact is considered. References L. Brocca, A. Tarpanelli, T. Moramarco, F. Melone, S.M. Ratto, M. Cauduro, S. Ferraris, N. Berni, F. Ponziani, W. Wagner, T. Melzer (2013). Soil Moisture Estimation in Alpine Catchments through Modeling and Satellite Observations VADOSE ZONE JOURNAL, vol. 8-2, p. 1-10, doi:10.2136/vzj2012.0102 M. Baudena, I. Bevilacqua, D. Canone, S. Ferraris, M. Previati, A. Provenzale (2012). Soil water dynamics at a midlatitude test site: Field measurements and box modeling approaches. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, vol. 414-415, p. 329-340, ISSN: 0022-1694, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.11.009 W.R. Whalley, G.P. Matthews, S. Ferraris (2012). The effect of compaction and shear deformation of saturated soil on hydraulic conductivity. SOIL & TILLAGE RESEARCH, vol. 125, p. 23-29, ISSN: 0167-1987

Genome-scale dynamic modeling of the competition between Rhodoferax and Geobacter in anoxic subsurface environments

PubMed Central

Zhuang, Kai; Izallalen, Mounir; Mouser, Paula; Richter, Hanno; Risso, Carla; Mahadevan, Radhakrishnan; Lovley, Derek R

2011-01-01

The advent of rapid complete genome sequencing, and the potential to capture this information in genome-scale metabolic models, provide the possibility of comprehensively modeling microbial community interactions. For example, Rhodoferax and Geobacter species are acetate-oxidizing Fe(III)-reducers that compete in anoxic subsurface environments and this competition may have an influence on the in situ bioremediation of uranium-contaminated groundwater. Therefore, genome-scale models of Geobacter sulfurreducens and Rhodoferax ferrireducens were used to evaluate how Geobacter and Rhodoferax species might compete under diverse conditions found in a uranium-contaminated aquifer in Rifle, CO. The model predicted that at the low rates of acetate flux expected under natural conditions at the site, Rhodoferax will outcompete Geobacter as long as sufficient ammonium is available. The model also predicted that when high concentrations of acetate are added during in situ bioremediation, Geobacter species would predominate, consistent with field-scale observations. This can be attributed to the higher expected growth yields of Rhodoferax and the ability of Geobacter to fix nitrogen. The modeling predicted relative proportions of Geobacter and Rhodoferax in geochemically distinct zones of the Rifle site that were comparable to those that were previously documented with molecular techniques. The model also predicted that under nitrogen fixation, higher carbon and electron fluxes would be diverted toward respiration rather than biomass formation in Geobacter, providing a potential explanation for enhanced in situ U(VI) reduction in low-ammonium zones. These results show that genome-scale modeling can be a useful tool for predicting microbial interactions in subsurface environments and shows promise for designing bioremediation strategies. PMID:20668487

Evaluation of physical activity web sites for use of behavior change theories.

PubMed

Doshi, Amol; Patrick, Kevin; Sallis, James F; Calfas, Karen

2003-01-01

Physical activity (PA) Web sites were assessed for their use of behavior change theories, including constructs of the health belief model, Transtheoretical Model, social cognitive theory, and the theory of reasoned action and planned behavior. An evaluation template for assessing PA Web sites was developed, and content validity and interrater reliability were demonstrated. Two independent raters evaluated 24 PA Web sites. Web sites varied widely in application of theory-based constructs, ranging from 5 to 48 on a 100-point scale. The most common intervention strategies were general information, social support, and realistic goal areas. Coverage of theory-based strategies was low, varying from 26% for social cognitive theory to 39% for health belief model. Overall, PA Web sites provided little assessment, feedback, or individually tailored assistance for users. They were unable to substantially tailor the on-line experience for users at different stages of change or different demographic characteristics.

Spatial Scaling of Environmental Variables Improves Species-Habitat Models of Fishes in a Small, Sand-Bed Lowland River

PubMed Central

Radinger, Johannes; Wolter, Christian; Kail, Jochem

2015-01-01

Habitat suitability and the distinct mobility of species depict fundamental keys for explaining and understanding the distribution of river fishes. In recent years, comprehensive data on river hydromorphology has been mapped at spatial scales down to 100 m, potentially serving high resolution species-habitat models, e.g., for fish. However, the relative importance of specific hydromorphological and in-stream habitat variables and their spatial scales of influence is poorly understood. Applying boosted regression trees, we developed species-habitat models for 13 fish species in a sand-bed lowland river based on river morphological and in-stream habitat data. First, we calculated mean values for the predictor variables in five distance classes (from the sampling site up to 4000 m up- and downstream) to identify the spatial scale that best predicts the presence of fish species. Second, we compared the suitability of measured variables and assessment scores related to natural reference conditions. Third, we identified variables which best explained the presence of fish species. The mean model quality (AUC = 0.78, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) significantly increased when information on the habitat conditions up- and downstream of a sampling site (maximum AUC at 2500 m distance class, +0.049) and topological variables (e.g., stream order) were included (AUC = +0.014). Both measured and assessed variables were similarly well suited to predict species’ presence. Stream order variables and measured cross section features (e.g., width, depth, velocity) were best-suited predictors. In addition, measured channel-bed characteristics (e.g., substrate types) and assessed longitudinal channel features (e.g., naturalness of river planform) were also good predictors. These findings demonstrate (i) the applicability of high resolution river morphological and instream-habitat data (measured and assessed variables) to predict fish presence, (ii) the importance of considering habitat at spatial scales larger than the sampling site, and (iii) that the importance of (river morphological) habitat characteristics differs depending on the spatial scale. PMID:26569119

Developing and Testing a Robust, Multi-Scale Framework for the Recovery of Longleaf Pine Understory Communities

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

Model averaging for species richness on post-agricultural sites (1000 m2) with a landscape radius of 150 m. Table 3.4.8. Model selection for species ... richness on post-agricultural sites (1000 m2) with a landscape radius of 150 m. Table 3.4.9. Model averaging for proportion of reference species on...Direct, indirect, and total standardized effects on species richness . Table 4.1.1. Species and number of seeds added to the experimental plots at

Prediction of Continental-Scale Net Ecosystem Carbon Exchange by Combining MODIS and AmeriFlux Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, J.; Zhuang, Q.

2007-12-01

There is growing interest in scaling up net ecosystem exchange (NEE) measured at eddy covariance flux towers to regional scales. Here we used remote sensing data from the MODIS instrument on board NASA's Terra satellite to extrapolate NEE measured at AmeriFlux sites to the continental scale. We combined MODIS data and NEE measurements from a number of AmeriFlux sites with a variety of vegetation types (e.g., forests, grasslands, shrublands, savannas, and croplands) to develop a predictive NEE model using a regression tree approach. The model was trained using 2000-2003 NEE measurements, and the performance of the model was evaluated using independent data over the period 2004-2006. We found that the model predicted NEE with reasonable accuracy at the continental scale. The R-squared values are 0.50 for all vegetation types combined and 0.72 for deciduous forests. We then applied the model to the conterminous U.S. and predicted NEE for each 500m by 500m cell over the period 2001-2006. Based on the wall-to-wall NEE estimates, we examined the spatial and temporal distributions of annual NEE and interannual variability of annual NEE across the conterminous U.S. over the study period (2001-2006). Our scaling-up approach implicitly considered the effects of climate variability, land use/land cover change, disturbances, extreme climate events, and management practices, and thus our annual NEE estimates represents the net carbon fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere in the conterminous U.S.

Developing a regional scale approach for modelling the impacts of fertiliser regime on N2O emissions in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmermann, Jesko; Jones, Michael

2016-04-01

Agriculture can be significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, this is especially prevalent in Ireland where the agricultural sector accounts for a third of total emissions. The high emissions are linked to both the importance of agriculture in the Irish economy and the focus on dairy and beef production. In order to reduce emissions three main categories are explored: (1) reduction of methane emissions from cattle, (2) reduction of nitrous oxide emissions from fertilisation, and (3) fostering the carbon sequestration potential of soils. The presented research focuses on the latter two categories, especially changes in fertiliser amount and composition. Soil properties and climate conditions measured at the four experimental sites (two silage and two spring barley) were used to parameterise four biogeochemical models (DayCent, ECOSSE, DNDC 9.4, and DNDC 9.5). All sites had a range of different fertiliser regimes applied. This included changes in amount (0 to 500 kg N/ha on grassland and 0 to 200 kg N/ha on arable fields), fertiliser type (calcium ammonium nitrate and urea), and added inhibitors (the nitrification inhibitor DCD, and the urease inhibitor Agrotain). Overall, 20 different treatments were applied to the grassland sites, and 17 to the arable sites. Nitrous oxide emissions, measured in 2013 and 2014 at all sites using closed chambers, were made available to validate model results for these emissions. To assess model performance for the daily measurements, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was compared to the measured 95% confidence interval of the measured data (RMSE95). Bias was tested comparing the relative error (RE) the 95 % confidence interval of the relative error (RE95). Preliminary results show mixed model performance, depending on the model, site, and the fertiliser regime. However, with the exception of urea fertilisation and added inhibitors, all scenarios were reproduced by at least one model with no statistically significant total error (RMSE < RMSE95) or bias (RE< RE95). A general trend observed was that model performance declined with increased fertilisation rates. Overall, DayCent showed the best performance, however it does not provide the possibility to model the addition urease inhibitors. The results suggest that modelling changes in fertiliser regime on a large scale may require a multi-model approach to assure best performance. Ultimately, the research aims to develop a GIS based platform to apply such an approach on a regional scale.

Fine-Scale Exposure to Allergenic Pollen in the Urban Environment: Evaluation of Land Use Regression Approach.

PubMed

Hjort, Jan; Hugg, Timo T; Antikainen, Harri; Rusanen, Jarmo; Sofiev, Mikhail; Kukkonen, Jaakko; Jaakkola, Maritta S; Jaakkola, Jouni J K

2016-05-01

Despite the recent developments in physically and chemically based analysis of atmospheric particles, no models exist for resolving the spatial variability of pollen concentration at urban scale. We developed a land use regression (LUR) approach for predicting spatial fine-scale allergenic pollen concentrations in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland, and evaluated the performance of the models against available empirical data. We used grass pollen data monitored at 16 sites in an urban area during the peak pollen season and geospatial environmental data. The main statistical method was generalized linear model (GLM). GLM-based LURs explained 79% of the spatial variation in the grass pollen data based on all samples, and 47% of the variation when samples from two sites with very high concentrations were excluded. In model evaluation, prediction errors ranged from 6% to 26% of the observed range of grass pollen concentrations. Our findings support the use of geospatial data-based statistical models to predict the spatial variation of allergenic grass pollen concentrations at intra-urban scales. A remote sensing-based vegetation index was the strongest predictor of pollen concentrations for exposure assessments at local scales. The LUR approach provides new opportunities to estimate the relations between environmental determinants and allergenic pollen concentration in human-modified environments at fine spatial scales. This approach could potentially be applied to estimate retrospectively pollen concentrations to be used for long-term exposure assessments. Hjort J, Hugg TT, Antikainen H, Rusanen J, Sofiev M, Kukkonen J, Jaakkola MS, Jaakkola JJ. 2016. Fine-scale exposure to allergenic pollen in the urban environment: evaluation of land use regression approach. Environ Health Perspect 124:619-626; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509761.

Occupancy estimation and the closure assumption

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rota, Christopher T.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Betts, Matthew G.

2009-01-01

1. Recent advances in occupancy estimation that adjust for imperfect detection have provided substantial improvements over traditional approaches and are receiving considerable use in applied ecology. To estimate and adjust for detectability, occupancy modelling requires multiple surveys at a site and requires the assumption of 'closure' between surveys, i.e. no changes in occupancy between surveys. Violations of this assumption could bias parameter estimates; however, little work has assessed model sensitivity to violations of this assumption or how commonly such violations occur in nature. 2. We apply a modelling procedure that can test for closure to two avian point-count data sets in Montana and New Hampshire, USA, that exemplify time-scales at which closure is often assumed. These data sets illustrate different sampling designs that allow testing for closure but are currently rarely employed in field investigations. Using a simulation study, we then evaluate the sensitivity of parameter estimates to changes in site occupancy and evaluate a power analysis developed for sampling designs that is aimed at limiting the likelihood of closure. 3. Application of our approach to point-count data indicates that habitats may frequently be open to changes in site occupancy at time-scales typical of many occupancy investigations, with 71% and 100% of species investigated in Montana and New Hampshire respectively, showing violation of closure across time periods of 3 weeks and 8 days respectively. 4. Simulations suggest that models assuming closure are sensitive to changes in occupancy. Power analyses further suggest that the modelling procedure we apply can effectively test for closure. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our demonstration that sites may be open to changes in site occupancy over time-scales typical of many occupancy investigations, combined with the sensitivity of models to violations of the closure assumption, highlights the importance of properly addressing the closure assumption in both sampling designs and analysis. Furthermore, inappropriately applying closed models could have negative consequences when monitoring rare or declining species for conservation and management decisions, because violations of closure typically lead to overestimates of the probability of occurrence.

Three-dimensional multi-scale model of deformable platelets adhesion to vessel wall in blood flow

PubMed Central

Wu, Ziheng; Xu, Zhiliang; Kim, Oleg; Alber, Mark

2014-01-01

When a blood vessel ruptures or gets inflamed, the human body responds by rapidly forming a clot to restrict the loss of blood. Platelets aggregation at the injury site of the blood vessel occurring via platelet–platelet adhesion, tethering and rolling on the injured endothelium is a critical initial step in blood clot formation. A novel three-dimensional multi-scale model is introduced and used in this paper to simulate receptor-mediated adhesion of deformable platelets at the site of vascular injury under different shear rates of blood flow. The novelty of the model is based on a new approach of coupling submodels at three biological scales crucial for the early clot formation: novel hybrid cell membrane submodel to represent physiological elastic properties of a platelet, stochastic receptor–ligand binding submodel to describe cell adhesion kinetics and lattice Boltzmann submodel for simulating blood flow. The model implementation on the GPU cluster significantly improved simulation performance. Predictive model simulations revealed that platelet deformation, interactions between platelets in the vicinity of the vessel wall as well as the number of functional GPIbα platelet receptors played significant roles in platelet adhesion to the injury site. Variation of the number of functional GPIbα platelet receptors as well as changes of platelet stiffness can represent effects of specific drugs reducing or enhancing platelet activity. Therefore, predictive simulations can improve the search for new drug targets and help to make treatment of thrombosis patient-specific. PMID:24982253

A site specific model and analysis of the neutral somatic mutation rate in whole-genome cancer data.

PubMed

Bertl, Johanna; Guo, Qianyun; Juul, Malene; Besenbacher, Søren; Nielsen, Morten Muhlig; Hornshøj, Henrik; Pedersen, Jakob Skou; Hobolth, Asger

2018-04-19

Detailed modelling of the neutral mutational process in cancer cells is crucial for identifying driver mutations and understanding the mutational mechanisms that act during cancer development. The neutral mutational process is very complex: whole-genome analyses have revealed that the mutation rate differs between cancer types, between patients and along the genome depending on the genetic and epigenetic context. Therefore, methods that predict the number of different types of mutations in regions or specific genomic elements must consider local genomic explanatory variables. A major drawback of most methods is the need to average the explanatory variables across the entire region or genomic element. This procedure is particularly problematic if the explanatory variable varies dramatically in the element under consideration. To take into account the fine scale of the explanatory variables, we model the probabilities of different types of mutations for each position in the genome by multinomial logistic regression. We analyse 505 cancer genomes from 14 different cancer types and compare the performance in predicting mutation rate for both regional based models and site-specific models. We show that for 1000 randomly selected genomic positions, the site-specific model predicts the mutation rate much better than regional based models. We use a forward selection procedure to identify the most important explanatory variables. The procedure identifies site-specific conservation (phyloP), replication timing, and expression level as the best predictors for the mutation rate. Finally, our model confirms and quantifies certain well-known mutational signatures. We find that our site-specific multinomial regression model outperforms the regional based models. The possibility of including genomic variables on different scales and patient specific variables makes it a versatile framework for studying different mutational mechanisms. Our model can serve as the neutral null model for the mutational process; regions that deviate from the null model are candidates for elements that drive cancer development.

DEVELOP MULTI-STRESSOR, OPEN ARCHITECTURE MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR ECOLOGICAL EXPOSURE FROM SITE TO WATERSHED SCALE

EPA Science Inventory

A number of multimedia modeling frameworks are currently being developed. The Multimedia Integrated Modeling System (MIMS) is one of these frameworks. A framework should be seen as more of a multimedia modeling infrastructure than a single software system. This infrastructure do...

New datasets for quantifying snow-vegetation-atmosphere interactions in boreal birch and conifer forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, T. D.; Essery, R.; Rutter, N.; Huntley, B.; Baxter, R.; Holden, R.; King, M.; Hancock, S.; Carle, J.

2012-12-01

Boreal forests exert a strong influence on weather and climate by modifying the surface energy and radiation balance. However, global climate and numerical weather prediction models use forest parameter values from simple look-up tables or maps that are derived from limited satellite data, on large grid scales. In reality, Arctic landscapes are inherently heterogeneous, with highly variable land cover types and structures on a variety of spatial scales. There is value in collecting detailed field data for different areas of vegetation cover, to assess the accuracy of large-scale assumptions. To address these issues, a consortium of researchers funded by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council have collected extensive data on radiation, meteorology, snow cover and canopy structure at two contrasting Arctic forest sites. The chosen study sites were an area of boreal birch forest near Abisko, Sweden in March/April 2011 and mixed conifer forest at Sodankylä, Finland in March/April 2012. At both sites, arrays comprising ten shortwave pyranometers and four longwave pyrgeometers were deployed for periods of up to 50 days, under forest plots of varying canopy structures and densities. In addition, downwelling longwave irradiance and global and diffuse shortwave irradiances were recorded at nearby open sites representing the top-of-canopy conditions. Meteorological data were recorded at all sub-canopy and open sites using automatic weather stations. Over the same periods, tree skin temperatures were measured on selected trees using contact thermocouples, infrared thermocouples and thermal imagery. Canopy structure was accurately quantified through manual surveys, extensive hemispherical photography and terrestrial laser scans of every study plot. Sub-canopy snow depth and snow water equivalent were measured on fine-scale grids at each study plot. Regular site maintenance ensured a high quality dataset covering the important Arctic spring period. The data have several applications, for example in forest ecology, canopy radiative transfer models, snow hydrological modelling, and land surface schemes, for a variety of canopy types from sparse, leafless birch to dense pine and spruce. The work also allows the comparison of modern, highly detailed methods such as laser scanning and thermal imagery with older, well-established data collection methods. By combining these data with airborne and satellite remote sensing data, snow-vegetation-atmosphere interactions could be estimated over a wide area of the heterogeneous boreal landscape. This could improve estimates of crucial parameters such as land surface albedo on the grid scales required for global or regional weather and climate models.

Multisite comparison of drivers of methane emissions from wetlands in the European Arctic: influence of vegetation community and water table.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinsmore, Kerry; Drewer, Julia; Leeson, Sarah; Skiba, Ute; Levy, Pete; George, Charles

2014-05-01

Arctic and sub arctic wetlands are a major source of atmospheric CH4 and therefore have the potential to be important in controlling global radiative forcing. Furthermore, the strong links between wetland CH4 emissions and vegetation community, hydrology and temperature suggest potentially large feedbacks between climate change and future emissions. Quantifying current emissions over large spatial scales and predicting future climatic feedbacks requires a fundamental understanding of the ground based drivers of plot scale emissions. The MAMM project (Methane in the Arctic: Measurements and Modelling) aims to understand and quantify current CH4 emissions and future climatic impacts by combining both ground and aircraft measurements across the European Arctic with regional computer modelling. Here we present results from the ground-based MAMM measurement campaigns, analysing chamber-measured CH4 emissions from two sites in the European Arctic/Sub-Arctic region (Sodankylä, Finland; Stordalen Mire, Sweden) from growing seasons in 2012 and 2013. A total of 85 wetland static chambers were deployed across the two field sites; 39 at Sodankylä (67° 22'01' N, 26° 3'06' E) in 2012 and 46 at Stordalen Mire (68° 21'20' N, 19° 02'56' E) in 2013. Chamber design, protocol and deployment were the same across both sites. Chambers were located at sites chosen strategically to cover the local range of water table depths and vegetation communities. A total of 18 and 15 repeated measurements were made at each chamber in Sodankylä and Stordalen Mire, respectively, over the snow-free season. Preliminary results show a large range of CH4 fluxes across both sites ranging from a CH4 uptake of up to 0.07 and 0.06 mg CH4-C m-2 hr-1 to emissions of 17.3 and 44.2 mg CH4-C m-2 hr-1 in Sodankylä and Stordalen Mire, respectively. Empirical models based on vegetation community, water table depth, temperature and soil nutrient availability (Plant Root Simulator Probes, PRSTM) have been constructed with the aim of understanding the drivers of chamber scale fluxes. By combining measurements made at two different sites, >300km apart, using the same experimental setup, we are uniquely able to investigate whether CH4 emissions are driven by common parameters. Furthermore we are able to determine if plot scale empirical models and parameterisations can be used effectively to upscale emissions to landscape and whole Arctic scale.

Estimating recharge at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA: Comparison of methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, A.L.; Flint, L.E.; Kwicklis, E.M.; Fabryka-Martin, J. T.; Bodvarsson, G.S.

2002-01-01

Obtaining values of net infiltration, groundwater travel time, and recharge is necessary at the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada, USA, in order to evaluate the expected performance of a potential repository as a containment system for high-level radioactive waste. However, the geologic complexities of this site, its low precipitation and net infiltration, with numerous mechanisms operating simultaneously to move water through the system, provide many challenges for the estimation of the spatial distribution of recharge. A variety of methods appropriate for arid environments has been applied, including water-balance techniques, calculations using Darcy's law in the unsaturated zone, a soil-physics method applied to neutron-hole water-content data, inverse modeling of thermal profiles in boreholes extending through the thick unsaturated zone, chloride mass balance, atmospheric radionuclides, and empirical approaches. These methods indicate that near-surface infiltration rates at Yucca Mountain are highly variable in time and space, with local (point) values ranging from zero to several hundred millimeters per year. Spatially distributed net-infiltration values average 5 mm/year, with the highest values approaching 20 mm/year near Yucca Crest. Site-scale recharge estimates range from less than 1 to about 12 mm/year. These results have been incorporated into a site-scale model that has been calibrated using these data sets that reflect infiltration processes acting on highly variable temporal and spatial scales. The modeling study predicts highly non-uniform recharge at the water table, distributed significantly differently from the non-uniform infiltration pattern at the surface.

Implications of two Holocene time-dependent geomagnetic models for cosmogenic nuclide production rate scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifton, Nathaniel

2016-01-01

The geomagnetic field is a major influence on in situ cosmogenic nuclide production rates at a given location (in addition to atmospheric pressure and, to a lesser extent, solar modulation effects). A better understanding of how past fluctuations in these influences affected production rates should allow more accurate application of cosmogenic nuclides. As such, this work explores the cosmogenic nuclide production rate scaling implications of two recent time-dependent spherical harmonic geomagnetic models spanning the Holocene. Korte and Constable (2011, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter.188, 247-259) and Korte et al. (2011, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 312, 497-505) recently updated earlier spherical harmonic paleomagnetic models with new paleomagnetic data from sediment cores in addition to new archeomagnetic and volcanic data. These updated models offer improved resolution and accuracy over the previous versions, in part due to increased temporal and spatial data coverage. In addition, Pavón-Carrasco et al. (2014, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 388, 98-109) developed another time-dependent spherical harmonic model of the Holocene geomagnetic field, based solely on archeomagnetic and volcanic paleomagnetic data from the same underlying paleomagnetic database as the Korte et al. models, but extending to 14 ka. With the new models as input, trajectory-traced estimates of effective vertical cutoff rigidity (RC - the standard method for ordering cosmic ray data) yield significantly different time-integrated scaling predictions when compared to each other and to results using the earlier models. In addition, predictions of each new model using RC are tested empirically using recently published production rate calibration data for both 10Be and 3He, and compared to predictions using corresponding time-varying geocentric dipolar RC formulations and a static geocentric axial dipole (GAD) model. Results for the few calibration sites from geomagnetically sensitive regions suggest that the Pavón-Carrasco et al. (2014) time-varying dipolar model tends to predict sea level, high latitude production rates more in line with those from calibration sites not affected by geomagnetic variations. This suggests that uncertainties arising from hemispheric and temporal sampling biases in the Holocene spherical harmonic models considered here, combined with the currently limited spatial and temporal distribution of production rate calibration sites as empirical tests, limit the robustness of the non-dipole aspects of these models for production rate scaling. These analyses should be revisited as such models improve and additional calibration sites become available.

Logistic regression accuracy across different spatial and temporal scales for a wide-ranging species, the marbled murrelet

Treesearch

Carolyn B. Meyer; Sherri L. Miller; C. John Ralph

2004-01-01

The scale at which habitat variables are measured affects the accuracy of resource selection functions in predicting animal use of sites. We used logistic regression models for a wide-ranging species, the marbled murrelet, (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in a large region in California to address how much changing the spatial or temporal scale of...

MODFLOW-LGR: Practical application to a large regional dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, D.; Coulibaly, K. M.

2011-12-01

In many areas of the US, including southwest Florida, large regional-scale groundwater models have been developed to aid in decision making and water resources management. These models are subsequently used as a basis for site-specific investigations. Because the large scale of these regional models is not appropriate for local application, refinement is necessary to analyze the local effects of pumping wells and groundwater related projects at specific sites. The most commonly used approach to date is Telescopic Mesh Refinement or TMR. It allows the extraction of a subset of the large regional model with boundary conditions derived from the regional model results. The extracted model is then updated and refined for local use using a variable sized grid focused on the area of interest. MODFLOW-LGR, local grid refinement, is an alternative approach which allows model discretization at a finer resolution in areas of interest and provides coupling between the larger "parent" model and the locally refined "child." In the present work, these two approaches are tested on a mining impact assessment case in southwest Florida using a large regional dataset (The Lower West Coast Surficial Aquifer System Model). Various metrics for performance are considered. They include: computation time, water balance (as compared to the variable sized grid), calibration, implementation effort, and application advantages and limitations. The results indicate that MODFLOW-LGR is a useful tool to improve local resolution of regional scale models. While performance metrics, such as computation time, are case-dependent (model size, refinement level, stresses involved), implementation effort, particularly when regional models of suitable scale are available, can be minimized. The creation of multiple child models within a larger scale parent model makes it possible to reuse the same calibrated regional dataset with minimal modification. In cases similar to the Lower West Coast model, where a model is larger than optimal for direct application as a parent grid, a combination of TMR and LGR approaches should be used to develop a suitable parent grid.

COSP - A computer model of cyclic oxidation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lowell, Carl E.; Barrett, Charles A.; Palmer, Raymond W.; Auping, Judith V.; Probst, Hubert B.

1991-01-01

A computer model useful in predicting the cyclic oxidation behavior of alloys is presented. The model considers the oxygen uptake due to scale formation during the heating cycle and the loss of oxide due to spalling during the cooling cycle. The balance between scale formation and scale loss is modeled and used to predict weight change and metal loss kinetics. A simple uniform spalling model is compared to a more complex random spall site model. In nearly all cases, the simpler uniform spall model gave predictions as accurate as the more complex model. The model has been applied to several nickel-base alloys which, depending upon composition, form Al2O3 or Cr2O3 during oxidation. The model has been validated by several experimental approaches. Versions of the model that run on a personal computer are available.

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2007-01-01

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be area-wide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim shale gas play, Michigan Basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models which can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) may lose granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined by extraneous factors. The paper also shows that when these simple prediction models are used to strategically order drilling prospects, the gain in gas volume over volumes associated with simple random site selection amounts to 15 to 20 percent. It also discusses why the observed benefit of updating predictions from results of new drilling, as opposed to following static predictions, is somewhat smaller. Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Verification of geomechanical integrity and prediction of long-term mineral trapping for the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kempka, Thomas; De Lucia, Marco; Kühn, Michael

2014-05-01

Static and dynamic numerical modelling generally accompany the entire CO2 storage site life cycle. Thereto, it is required to match the employed models with field observations on a regular basis in order to predict future site behaviour. We investigated the coupled processes at the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site [1] using a model coupling concept focusing on the temporal relevance of processes involved (hydraulic, chemical and mechanical) at given time-scales (site operation, abandonment and long-term stabilization). For that purpose, long-term dynamic multi-phase flow simulations [2], [3] established the basis for all simulations discussed in the following. Hereby, pressure changes resulting in geomechanical effects are largest during site operation, whereas geochemical reactions are governed by slow kinetics resulting in a long-term stabilization. To account for mechanical integrity, which may be mainly affected during site operation, we incorporated a regional-scale coupled hydro-mechanical model. Our simulation results show maximum ground surface displacements of about 4 mm, whereas shear and tensile failure are not observed. Consequently, the CO2 storage operation at the Ketzin pilot site does not compromise reservoir, caprock and fault integrity. Chemical processes responsible for mineral trapping are expected to mainly occur during long-term stabilization at the Ketzin pilot site [4]. Hence, our previous assessment [3] was extended by integrating two long-term mineral trapping scenarios. Thereby, mineral trapping contributes to the trapping mechanisms with 11.7 % after 16,000 years of simulation in our conservative and with 30.9 % in our maximum reactivity scenarios. Dynamic flow simulations indicate that only 0.2 % of the CO2 injected (about 67,270 t CO2 in total) is in gaseous state, but structurally trapped after 16,000 years. Depending on the studied long-term scenario, CO2 dissolution is the dominating trapping mechanism with 68.9 % and 88.1 %, respectively. We verified the mechanical integrity of the storage system during site operation and predicted the trapping mechanisms for the Ketzin pilot site based on a time-dependent integration of relevant processes for a time period of 16,000 years. Supported by our coupled modelling results, we conclude that CO2 storage at the Ketzin site is safe and reliable on the pilot scale. References [1] Martens, S., Kempka, T., Liebscher, A., Lüth, S., Möller, F., Myrttinen, A., Norden, B., Schmidt-Hattenberger, C., Zimmer, M., Kühn, M. Europe's longest-operating on-shore CO2 storage site at Ketzin, Germany: a progress report after three years of injection. Environmental Earth Sciences 2012 67(2): 323-334. [2] Kempka, T., Kühn, M. Numerical simulations of CO2 arrival times and reservoir pressure coincide with observations from the Ketzin pilot site, Germany. Environmental Earth Sciences 2013 70(8): 3675-3685. [3] Kempka, T., Klein, E., De Lucia, M., Tillner, E., Kühn, M. Assessment of Long-term CO2 Trapping Mechanisms at the Ketzin Pilot Site (Germany) by Coupled Numerical Modelling. Energy Procedia 2013 37: 5419-5426. [4] Klein, E., De Lucia, M., Kempka, T., Kühn, M. Evaluation of long-term mineral trapping at the Ketzin pilot site for CO2 storage: An integrative approach using geochemical modelling and reservoir simulation. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 2013 19: 720-730.

Integrating fine-scale soil data into species distribution models: preparing Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) data from multiple counties

Treesearch

Matthew P. Peters; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Steve N. Matthews

2013-01-01

Fine-scale soil (SSURGO) data were processed at the county level for 37 states within the eastern United States, initially for use as predictor variables in a species distribution model called DISTRIB II. Values from county polygon files converted into a continuous 30-m raster grid were aggregated to 4-km cells and integrated with other environmental and site condition...

Combining Deterministic structures and stochastic heterogeneity for transport modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zech, Alraune; Attinger, Sabine; Dietrich, Peter; Teutsch, Georg

2017-04-01

Contaminant transport in highly heterogeneous aquifers is extremely challenging and subject of current scientific debate. Tracer plumes often show non-symmetric but highly skewed plume shapes. Predicting such transport behavior using the classical advection-dispersion-equation (ADE) in combination with a stochastic description of aquifer properties requires a dense measurement network. This is in contrast to the available information for most aquifers. A new conceptual aquifer structure model is presented which combines large-scale deterministic information and the stochastic approach for incorporating sub-scale heterogeneity. The conceptual model is designed to allow for a goal-oriented, site specific transport analysis making use of as few data as possible. Thereby the basic idea is to reproduce highly skewed tracer plumes in heterogeneous media by incorporating deterministic contrasts and effects of connectivity instead of using unimodal heterogeneous models with high variances. The conceptual model consists of deterministic blocks of mean hydraulic conductivity which might be measured by pumping tests indicating values differing in orders of magnitudes. A sub-scale heterogeneity is introduced within every block. This heterogeneity can be modeled as bimodal or log-normal distributed. The impact of input parameters, structure and conductivity contrasts is investigated in a systematic manor. Furthermore, some first successful implementation of the model was achieved for the well known MADE site.

Lessons Learned from Near Field Modeling and Data Collected at the SPE Chemical Explosions in Jointed Rock Masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorobiev, O.; Ezzedine, S. M.; Hurley, R.; Antoun, T.; Glenn, L.

2016-12-01

This work describes the near-field modeling of wave propagation from underground chemicalexplosions conducted at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in fractured granitic rock. Lab testsperformed on granite samples excavated from various locations at the SPE site have shown littlevariability in mechanical properties. Granite at this scale can be considered as an isotropic medium. Wehave shown, however, that on the scale of the pressure waves generated during chemical explosions(tens of meters), the effective mechanical properties may vary significantly and exhibit both elastic andplastic anisotropies due to local variations in joint properties such as spacing orientation, joint aperture,cohesion and saturation. Since including every joint in a discrete fashion in computational model is notfeasible, especially for large-scale calculations ( 1.5 km domain), we have developed a computationaltechnique to upscale mechanical properties for various scales (frequencies) using geophysicalcharacterization conducted during recent SPE tests at the NNSS. Stochastic representation of thesefeatures based on the field characterizations has been implemented into LLNL's Geodyn-L hydrocode.Scale dependency in mechanical properties is important in order to understand how the ground motionscales with yield. We hope that such an approach will not only provide a better prediction of theground motion observed in the SPE (where the yield varies from 100 kg to few tons of TNT equivalent)but also will allow us to extrapolate results of the SPE to sources with bigger yields. We have validatedour computational results by comparing the measured and computed ground motion at various rangesfor experiments of various yields (SPE1-SPE5). Using the new model we performed severalcomputational studies to identify the most important mechanical properties of the rock mass specific tothe SPE site and to understand their roles in the observed ground motion in the near-field. We willpresent a series of lessons learned from the data gathered at the NNSS SPE site and the simulationsconducted using state-of-the-art HPC codes.This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence LivermoreNational Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-679820

Assessing FPAR Source and Parameter Optimization Scheme in Application of a Diagnostic Carbon Flux Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, D P; Ritts, W D; Wharton, S

2009-02-26

The combination of satellite remote sensing and carbon cycle models provides an opportunity for regional to global scale monitoring of terrestrial gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem production. FPAR (the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the plant canopy) is a critical input to diagnostic models, however little is known about the relative effectiveness of FPAR products from different satellite sensors nor about the sensitivity of flux estimates to different parameterization approaches. In this study, we used multiyear observations of carbon flux at four eddy covariance flux tower sites within the conifer biome to evaluate these factors.more » FPAR products from the MODIS and SeaWiFS sensors, and the effects of single site vs. cross-site parameter optimization were tested with the CFLUX model. The SeaWiFs FPAR product showed greater dynamic range across sites and resulted in slightly reduced flux estimation errors relative to the MODIS product when using cross-site optimization. With site-specific parameter optimization, the flux model was effective in capturing seasonal and interannual variation in the carbon fluxes at these sites. The cross-site prediction errors were lower when using parameters from a cross-site optimization compared to parameter sets from optimization at single sites. These results support the practice of multisite optimization within a biome for parameterization of diagnostic carbon flux models.« less

Scale-Dependent Rates of Uranyl Surface Complexation Reaction in Sediments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Chongxuan; Shang, Jianying; Kerisit, Sebastien N.

Scale-dependency of uranyl[U(VI)] surface complexation rates was investigated in stirred flow-cell and column systems using a U(VI)-contaminated sediment from the US Department of Energy, Hanford site, WA. The experimental results were used to estimate the apparent rate of U(VI) surface complexation at the grain-scale and in porous media. Numerical simulations using molecular, pore-scale, and continuum models were performed to provide insights into and to estimate the rate constants of U(VI) surface complexation at the different scales. The results showed that the grain-scale rate constant of U(VI) surface complexation was over 3 to 10 orders of magnitude smaller, dependent on themore » temporal scale, than the rate constant calculated using the molecular simulations. The grain-scale rate was faster initially and slower with time, showing the temporal scale-dependency. The largest rate constant at the grain-scale decreased additional 2 orders of magnitude when the rate was scaled to the porous media in the column. The scaling effect from the grain-scale to the porous media became less important for the slower sorption sites. Pore-scale simulations revealed the importance of coupled mass transport and reactions in both intragranular and inter-granular domains, which caused both spatial and temporal dependence of U(VI) surface complexation rates in the sediment. Pore-scale simulations also revealed a new rate-limiting mechanism in the intragranular porous domains that the rate of coupled diffusion and surface complexation reaction was slower than either process alone. The results provided important implications for developing models to scale geochemical/biogeochemical reactions.« less

Modelling hurricane exposure and wind speed on a mesoclimate scale: a case study from Cusuco NP, Honduras.

PubMed

Batke, Sven P; Jocque, Merlijn; Kelly, Daniel L

2014-01-01

High energy weather events are often expected to play a substantial role in biotic community dynamics and large scale diversity patterns but their contribution is hard to prove. Currently, observations are limited to the documentation of accidental records after the passing of such events. A more comprehensive approach is synthesising weather events in a location over a long time period, ideally at a high spatial resolution and on a large geographic scale. We provide a detailed overview on how to generate hurricane exposure data at a meso-climate level for a specific region. As a case study we modelled landscape hurricane exposure in Cusuco National Park (CNP), Honduras with a resolution of 50 m×50 m patches. We calculated actual hurricane exposure vulnerability site scores (EVVS) through the combination of a wind pressure model, an exposure model that can incorporate simple wind dynamics within a 3-dimensional landscape and the integration of historical hurricanes data. The EVSS was calculated as a weighted function of sites exposure, hurricane frequency and maximum wind velocity. Eleven hurricanes were found to have affected CNP between 1995 and 2010. The highest EVSS's were predicted to be on South and South-East facing sites of the park. Ground validation demonstrated that the South-solution (i.e. the South wind inflow direction) explained most of the observed tree damage (90% of the observed tree damage in the field). Incorporating historical data to the model to calculate actual hurricane exposure values, instead of potential exposure values, increased the model fit by 50%.

Modelling Hurricane Exposure and Wind Speed on a Mesoclimate Scale: A Case Study from Cusuco NP, Honduras

PubMed Central

Batke, Sven P.; Jocque, Merlijn; Kelly, Daniel L.

2014-01-01

High energy weather events are often expected to play a substantial role in biotic community dynamics and large scale diversity patterns but their contribution is hard to prove. Currently, observations are limited to the documentation of accidental records after the passing of such events. A more comprehensive approach is synthesising weather events in a location over a long time period, ideally at a high spatial resolution and on a large geographic scale. We provide a detailed overview on how to generate hurricane exposure data at a meso-climate level for a specific region. As a case study we modelled landscape hurricane exposure in Cusuco National Park (CNP), Honduras with a resolution of 50 m×50 m patches. We calculated actual hurricane exposure vulnerability site scores (EVVS) through the combination of a wind pressure model, an exposure model that can incorporate simple wind dynamics within a 3-dimensional landscape and the integration of historical hurricanes data. The EVSS was calculated as a weighted function of sites exposure, hurricane frequency and maximum wind velocity. Eleven hurricanes were found to have affected CNP between 1995 and 2010. The highest EVSS’s were predicted to be on South and South-East facing sites of the park. Ground validation demonstrated that the South-solution (i.e. the South wind inflow direction) explained most of the observed tree damage (90% of the observed tree damage in the field). Incorporating historical data to the model to calculate actual hurricane exposure values, instead of potential exposure values, increased the model fit by 50%. PMID:24614168

Lower limb estimation from sparse landmarks using an articulated shape model.

PubMed

Zhang, Ju; Fernandez, Justin; Hislop-Jambrich, Jacqui; Besier, Thor F

2016-12-08

Rapid generation of lower limb musculoskeletal models is essential for clinically applicable patient-specific gait modeling. Estimation of muscle and joint contact forces requires accurate representation of bone geometry and pose, as well as their muscle attachment sites, which define muscle moment arms. Motion-capture is a routine part of gait assessment but contains relatively sparse geometric information. Standard methods for creating customized models from motion-capture data scale a reference model without considering natural shape variations. We present an articulated statistical shape model of the left lower limb with embedded anatomical landmarks and muscle attachment regions. This model is used in an automatic workflow, implemented in an easy-to-use software application, that robustly and accurately estimates realistic lower limb bone geometry, pose, and muscle attachment regions from seven commonly used motion-capture landmarks. Estimated bone models were validated on noise-free marker positions to have a lower (p=0.001) surface-to-surface root-mean-squared error of 4.28mm, compared to 5.22mm using standard isotropic scaling. Errors at a variety of anatomical landmarks were also lower (8.6mm versus 10.8mm, p=0.001). We improve upon standard lower limb model scaling methods with shape model-constrained realistic bone geometries, regional muscle attachment sites, and higher accuracy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The 300 Area Integrated Field Research Challenge Quality Assurance Project Plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fix, N. J.

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and a group of expert collaborators are using the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site 300 Area uranium plume within the footprint of the 300-FF-5 groundwater operable unit as a site for an Integrated Field-Scale Subsurface Research Challenge (IFRC). The IFRC is entitled Multi-Scale Mass Transfer Processes Controlling Natural Attenuation and Engineered Remediation: An IFRC Focused on the Hanford Site 300 Area Uranium Plume Project. The theme is investigation of multi-scale mass transfer processes. A series of forefront science questions on mass transfer are posed for research that relate to the effect of spatial heterogeneities; themore » importance of scale; coupled interactions between biogeochemical, hydrologic, and mass transfer processes; and measurements/approaches needed to characterize and model a mass transfer-dominated system. This Quality Assurance Project Plan provides the quality assurance requirements and processes that will be followed by the 300 Area IFRC Project. This plan is designed to be used exclusively by project staff.« less

Innovative Field Methods for Characterizing the Hydraulic Properties of a Complex Fractured Rock Aquifer (Ploemeur, Brittany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bour, O.; Le Borgne, T.; Longuevergne, L.; Lavenant, N.; Jimenez-Martinez, J.; De Dreuzy, J. R.; Schuite, J.; Boudin, F.; Labasque, T.; Aquilina, L.

2014-12-01

Characterizing the hydraulic properties of heterogeneous and complex aquifers often requires field scale investigations at multiple space and time scales to better constrain hydraulic property estimates. Here, we present and discuss results from the site of Ploemeur (Brittany, France) where complementary hydrological and geophysical approaches have been combined to characterize the hydrogeological functioning of this highly fractured crystalline rock aquifer. In particular, we show how cross-borehole flowmeter tests, pumping tests and frequency domain analysis of groundwater levels allow quantifying the hydraulic properties of the aquifer at different scales. In complement, we used groundwater temperature as an excellent tracer for characterizing groundwater flow. At the site scale, measurements of ground surface deformation through long-base tiltmeters provide robust estimates of aquifer storage and allow identifying the active structures where groundwater pressure changes occur, including those acting during recharge process. Finally, a numerical model of the site that combines hydraulic data and groundwater ages confirms the geometry of this complex aquifer and the consistency of the different datasets. The Ploemeur site, which has been used for water supply at a rate of about 106 m3 per year since 1991, belongs to the French network of hydrogeological sites H+ and is currently used for monitoring groundwater changes and testing innovative field methods.

Assessing the ability of potential evapotranspiration models in capturing dynamics of evaporative demand across various biomes and climatic regimes with ChinaFLUX measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Han; Yu, Guirui; Wang, Qiufeng; Zhu, Xianjin; Yan, Junhua; Wang, Huimin; Shi, Peili; Zhao, Fenghua; Li, Yingnian; Zhao, Liang; Zhang, Junhui; Wang, Yanfen

2017-08-01

Estimates of atmospheric evaporative demand have been widely required for a variety of hydrological analyses, with potential evapotranspiration (PET) being an important measure representing evaporative demand of actual vegetated surfaces under given metrological conditions. In this study, we assessed the ability of various PET models in capturing long-term (typically 2003-2011) dynamics of evaporative demand at eight ecosystems across various biomes and climatic regimes in China. Prior to assessing PET dynamics, we first examined the reasonability of fourteen PET models in representing the magnitudes of evaporative demand using eddy-covariance actual evapotranspiration (AET) as an indicator. Results showed that the robustness of the fourteen PET models differed somewhat across the sites, and only three PET models could produce reasonable magnitudes of evaporative demand (i.e., PET ≥ AET on average) for all eight sites, including the: (i) Penman; (ii) Priestly-Taylor and (iii) Linacre models. Then, we assessed the ability of these three PET models in capturing dynamics of evaporative demand by comparing the annual and seasonal trends in PET against the equivalent trends in AET and precipitation (P) for particular sites. Results indicated that nearly all the three PET models could faithfully reproduce the dynamics in evaporative demand for the energy-limited conditions at both annual and seasonal scales, while only the Penman and Linacre models could represent dynamics in evaporative demand for the water-limited conditions. However, the Linacre model was unable to reproduce the seasonal switches between water- and energy-limited states for some sites. Our findings demonstrated that the choice of PET models would be essential for the evaporative demand analyses and other related hydrological analyses at different temporal and spatial scales.

Scale-dependent associations of Band-tailed Pigeon counts at mineral sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.

2010-01-01

The abundance of Band-tailed Pigeons (Patagioenas fasciata monilis) has declined substantially from historic numbers along the Pacific Coast. Identification of patterns and causative factors of this decline are hampered because habitat use data are limited, and temporal and spatial variability patterns associated with population indices are not known. Furthermore, counts are influenced not only by pigeon abundance but also by rate of visitation to mineral sites, which may not be consistent. To address these issues, we conducted mineral site counts during 2001 and 2002 at 20 locations from 4 regions in the Pacific Northwest, including central Oregon and western Washington, USA, and British Columbia, Canada. We developed inference models that consisted of environmental factors and spatial characteristics at multiple spatial scales. Based on information theory, we compared models within a final set that included variables measured at 3 spatial scales (0.03 ha, 3.14 ha, and 7850 ha). Pigeon counts increased from central Oregon through northern Oregon and decreased into British Columbia. After accounting for this spatial pattern, we found that pigeon counts increased 12% ± 2.7 with a 10% increase in the amount of deciduous forested area within 100 m from a mineral site. Also, distance from the mineral site of interest to the nearest known mineral site was positively related to pigeon counts. These findings provide direction for future research focusing on understanding the relationships between indices of relative abundance and complete counts (censuses) of pigeon populations by identifying habitat characteristics that might influence visitation rates. Furthermore, our results suggest that spatial arrangement of mineral sites influences Band-tailed Pigeon counts and the populations which those counts represent.

Performance of Linear and Nonlinear Two-Leaf Light Use Efficiency Models at Different Temporal Scales

DOE PAGES

Wu, Xiaocui; Ju, Weimin; Zhou, Yanlian; ...

2015-02-25

The reliable simulation of gross primary productivity (GPP) at various spatial and temporal scales is of significance to quantifying the net exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. This study aimed to verify the ability of a nonlinear two-leaf model (TL-LUEn), a linear two-leaf model (TL-LUE), and a big-leaf light use efficiency model (MOD17) to simulate GPP at half-hourly, daily and 8-day scales using GPP derived from 58 eddy-covariance flux sites in Asia, Europe and North America as benchmarks. Model evaluation showed that the overall performance of TL-LUEn was slightly but not significantly better than TL-LUE at half-hourlymore » and daily scale, while the overall performance of both TL-LUEn and TL-LUE were significantly better (p < 0.0001) than MOD17 at the two temporal scales. The improvement of TL-LUEn over TL-LUE was relatively small in comparison with the improvement of TL-LUE over MOD17. However, the differences between TL-LUEn and MOD17, and TL-LUE and MOD17 became less distinct at the 8-day scale. As for different vegetation types, TL-LUEn and TL-LUE performed better than MOD17 for all vegetation types except crops at the half-hourly scale. At the daily and 8-day scales, both TL-LUEn and TL-LUE outperformed MOD17 for forests. However, TL-LUEn had a mixed performance for the three non-forest types while TL-LUE outperformed MOD17 slightly for all these non-forest types at daily and 8-day scales. The better performance of TL-LUEn and TL-LUE for forests was mainly achieved by the correction of the underestimation/overestimation of GPP simulated by MOD17 under low/high solar radiation and sky clearness conditions. TL-LUEn is more applicable at individual sites at the half-hourly scale while TL-LUE could be regionally used at half-hourly, daily and 8-day scales. MOD17 is also an applicable option regionally at the 8-day scale.« less

Performance of Linear and Nonlinear Two-Leaf Light Use Efficiency Models at Different Temporal Scales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Xiaocui; Ju, Weimin; Zhou, Yanlian

The reliable simulation of gross primary productivity (GPP) at various spatial and temporal scales is of significance to quantifying the net exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. This study aimed to verify the ability of a nonlinear two-leaf model (TL-LUEn), a linear two-leaf model (TL-LUE), and a big-leaf light use efficiency model (MOD17) to simulate GPP at half-hourly, daily and 8-day scales using GPP derived from 58 eddy-covariance flux sites in Asia, Europe and North America as benchmarks. Model evaluation showed that the overall performance of TL-LUEn was slightly but not significantly better than TL-LUE at half-hourlymore » and daily scale, while the overall performance of both TL-LUEn and TL-LUE were significantly better (p < 0.0001) than MOD17 at the two temporal scales. The improvement of TL-LUEn over TL-LUE was relatively small in comparison with the improvement of TL-LUE over MOD17. However, the differences between TL-LUEn and MOD17, and TL-LUE and MOD17 became less distinct at the 8-day scale. As for different vegetation types, TL-LUEn and TL-LUE performed better than MOD17 for all vegetation types except crops at the half-hourly scale. At the daily and 8-day scales, both TL-LUEn and TL-LUE outperformed MOD17 for forests. However, TL-LUEn had a mixed performance for the three non-forest types while TL-LUE outperformed MOD17 slightly for all these non-forest types at daily and 8-day scales. The better performance of TL-LUEn and TL-LUE for forests was mainly achieved by the correction of the underestimation/overestimation of GPP simulated by MOD17 under low/high solar radiation and sky clearness conditions. TL-LUEn is more applicable at individual sites at the half-hourly scale while TL-LUE could be regionally used at half-hourly, daily and 8-day scales. MOD17 is also an applicable option regionally at the 8-day scale.« less

Model-data fusion across ecosystems: from multisite optimizations to global simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuppel, S.; Peylin, P.; Maignan, F.; Chevallier, F.; Kiely, G.; Montagnani, L.; Cescatti, A.

2014-11-01

This study uses a variational data assimilation framework to simultaneously constrain a global ecosystem model with eddy covariance measurements of daily net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and latent heat (LE) fluxes from a large number of sites grouped in seven plant functional types (PFTs). It is an attempt to bridge the gap between the numerous site-specific parameter optimization works found in the literature and the generic parameterization used by most land surface models within each PFT. The present multisite approach allows deriving PFT-generic sets of optimized parameters enhancing the agreement between measured and simulated fluxes at most of the sites considered, with performances often comparable to those of the corresponding site-specific optimizations. Besides reducing the PFT-averaged model-data root-mean-square difference (RMSD) and the associated daily output uncertainty, the optimization improves the simulated CO2 balance at tropical and temperate forests sites. The major site-level NEE adjustments at the seasonal scale are reduced amplitude in C3 grasslands and boreal forests, increased seasonality in temperate evergreen forests, and better model-data phasing in temperate deciduous broadleaf forests. Conversely, the poorer performances in tropical evergreen broadleaf forests points to deficiencies regarding the modelling of phenology and soil water stress for this PFT. An evaluation with data-oriented estimates of photosynthesis (GPP - gross primary productivity) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) rates indicates distinctively improved simulations of both gross fluxes. The multisite parameter sets are then tested against CO2 concentrations measured at 53 locations around the globe, showing significant adjustments of the modelled seasonality of atmospheric CO2 concentration, whose relevance seems PFT-dependent, along with an improved interannual variability. Lastly, a global-scale evaluation with remote sensing NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) measurements indicates an improvement of the simulated seasonal variations of the foliar cover for all considered PFTs.

Wave resource variability: Impacts on wave power supply over regional to international scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Helen; Fairley, Iain; Robertson, Bryson; Abusara, Mohammad; Masters, Ian

2017-04-01

The intermittent, irregular and variable nature of the wave energy resource has implications for the supply of wave-generated electricity into the grid. Intermittency of renewable power may lead to frequency and voltage fluctuations in the transmission and distribution networks. A matching supply of electricity must be planned to meet the predicted demand, leading to a need for gas-fired and back-up generating plants to supplement intermittent supplies, and potentially limiting the integration of intermittent power into the grid. Issues relating to resource intermittency and their mitigation through the development of spatially separated sites have been widely researched in the wind industry, but have received little attention to date in the less mature wave industry. This study analyses the wave resource over three different spatial scales to investigate the potential impacts of the temporal and spatial resource variability on the grid supply. The primary focus is the Southwest UK, a region already home to multiple existing and proposed wave energy test sites. Concurrent wave buoy data from six locations, supported by SWAN wave model hindcast data, are analysed to assess the correlation of the resource across the region and the variation in wave power with direction. Power matrices for theoretical nearshore and offshore devices are used to calculate the maximum step change in generated power across the region as the number of deployment sites is increased. The step change analysis is also applied across national and international spatial scales using output from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ERA-Interim hindcast model. It is found that the deployment of multiple wave energy sites, whether on a regional, national or international scale, results in both a reduction in step changes in power and reduced times of zero generation, leading to an overall smoothing of the wave-generated electrical power. This has implications for the planning and siting of future wave energy arrays when the industry reaches the point of large-scale deployment.

A reference time scale for Site U1385 (Shackleton Site) on the SW Iberian Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodell, D.; Lourens, L.; Crowhurst, S.; Konijnendijk, T.; Tjallingii, R.; Jiménez-Espejo, F.; Skinner, L.; Tzedakis, P. C.; Abrantes, Fatima; Acton, Gary D.; Alvarez Zarikian, Carlos A.; Bahr, André; Balestra, Barbara; Barranco, Estefanìa Llave; Carrara, Gabriela; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Flood, Roger D.; Flores, José-Abel; Furota, Satoshi; Grimalt, Joan; Grunert, Patrick; Hernández-Molina, Javier; Kim, Jin Kyoung; Krissek, Lawrence A.; Kuroda, Junichiro; Li, Baohua; Lofi, Johanna; Margari, Vasiliki; Martrat, Belen; Miller, Madeline D.; Nanayama, Futoshi; Nishida, Naohisa; Richter, Carl; Rodrigues, Teresa; Rodríguez-Tovar, Francisco J.; Roque, Ana Cristina Freixo; Sanchez Goñi, Maria F.; Sierro Sánchez, Francisco J.; Singh, Arun D.; Sloss, Craig R.; Stow, Dorrik A. V.; Takashimizu, Yasuhiro; Tzanova, Alexandrina; Voelker, Antje; Xuan, Chuang; Williams, Trevor

2015-10-01

We produced a composite depth scale and chronology for Site U1385 on the SW Iberian Margin. Using log(Ca/Ti) measured by core scanning XRF at 1-cm resolution in all holes, a composite section was constructed to 166.5 meter composite depth (mcd) that corrects for stretching and squeezing in each core. Oxygen isotopes of benthic foraminifera were correlated to a stacked δ18O reference signal (LR04) to produce an oxygen isotope stratigraphy and age model. Variations in sediment color contain very strong precession signals at Site U1385, and the amplitude modulation of these cycles provides a powerful tool for developing an orbitally-tuned age model. We tuned the U1385 record by correlating peaks in L* to the local summer insolation maxima at 37°N. The benthic δ18O record of Site U1385, when placed on the tuned age model, generally agrees with other time scales within their respective chronologic uncertainties. The age model is transferred to down-core data to produce a continuous time series of log(Ca/Ti) that reflect relative changes of biogenic carbonate and detrital sediment. Biogenic carbonate increases during interglacial and interstadial climate states and decreases during glacial and stadial periods. Much of the variance in the log(Ca/Ti) is explained by a linear combination of orbital frequencies (precession, tilt and eccentricity), whereas the residual signal reflects suborbital climate variability. The strong correlation between suborbital log(Ca/Ti) variability and Greenland temperature over the last glacial cycle at Site U1385 suggests that this signal can be used as a proxy for millennial-scale climate variability over the past 1.5 Ma. Millennial climate variability, as expressed by log(Ca/Ti) at Site U1385, was a persistent feature of glacial climates over the past 1.5 Ma, including glacial periods of the early Pleistocene ('41-kyr world') when boundary conditions differed significantly from those of the late Pleistocene ('100-kyr world'). Suborbital variability was suppressed during interglacial stages and enhanced during glacial periods, especially when benthic δ18O surpassed 3.3-3.5‰. Each glacial inception was marked by appearance of strong millennial variability and each deglaciation was preceded by a terminal stadial event. Suborbital variability may be a symptomatic feature of glacial climate or, alternatively, may play a more active role in the inception and/or termination of glacial cycles.

Toward an Empirically-Based Parametric Explosion Spectral Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

estimated (Richards and Kim, 2009). This archive could potentially provide 200 recordings of explosions at Semipalatinsk Test Site of the former Soviet...estimates of explosion yield, and prior work at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) (e.g., Walter et al., 1995) has found that explosions in weak materials have...2007). Corner frequency scaling of regional seismic phases for underground nuclear explosions at the Nevada Test Site , Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 97

Disentangling how landscape spatial and temporal heterogeneity affects Savanna birds.

PubMed

Price, Bronwyn; McAlpine, Clive A; Kutt, Alex S; Ward, Doug; Phinn, Stuart R; Ludwig, John A

2013-01-01

In highly seasonal tropical environments, temporal changes in habitat and resources are a significant determinant of the spatial distribution of species. This study disentangles the effects of spatial and mid to long-term temporal heterogeneity in habitat on the diversity and abundance of savanna birds by testing four competing conceptual models of varying complexity. Focussing on sites in northeast Australia over a 20 year time period, we used ground cover and foliage projected cover surfaces derived from a time series of Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, rainfall data and site-level vegetation surveys to derive measures of habitat structure at local (1-100 ha) and landscape (100-1000s ha) scales. We used generalised linear models and an information theoretic approach to test the independent effects of spatial and temporal influences on savanna bird diversity and the abundance of eight species with different life-history behaviours. Of four competing models defining influences on assemblages of savanna birds, the most parsimonious included temporal and spatial variability in vegetation cover and site-scale vegetation structure, suggesting savanna bird species respond to spatial and temporal habitat heterogeneity at both the broader landscape scale and at the fine-scale. The relative weight, strength and direction of the explanatory variables changed with each of the eight species, reflecting their different ecology and behavioural traits. This study demonstrates that variations in the spatial pattern of savanna vegetation over periods of 10 to 20 years at the local and landscape scale strongly affect bird diversity and abundance. Thus, it is essential to monitor and manage both spatial and temporal variability in avian habitat to achieve long-term biodiversity outcomes.

Disentangling How Landscape Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity Affects Savanna Birds

PubMed Central

Price, Bronwyn; McAlpine, Clive A.; Kutt, Alex S.; Ward, Doug; Phinn, Stuart R.; Ludwig, John A.

2013-01-01

In highly seasonal tropical environments, temporal changes in habitat and resources are a significant determinant of the spatial distribution of species. This study disentangles the effects of spatial and mid to long-term temporal heterogeneity in habitat on the diversity and abundance of savanna birds by testing four competing conceptual models of varying complexity. Focussing on sites in northeast Australia over a 20 year time period, we used ground cover and foliage projected cover surfaces derived from a time series of Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, rainfall data and site-level vegetation surveys to derive measures of habitat structure at local (1–100 ha) and landscape (100–1000s ha) scales. We used generalised linear models and an information theoretic approach to test the independent effects of spatial and temporal influences on savanna bird diversity and the abundance of eight species with different life-history behaviours. Of four competing models defining influences on assemblages of savanna birds, the most parsimonious included temporal and spatial variability in vegetation cover and site-scale vegetation structure, suggesting savanna bird species respond to spatial and temporal habitat heterogeneity at both the broader landscape scale and at the fine-scale. The relative weight, strength and direction of the explanatory variables changed with each of the eight species, reflecting their different ecology and behavioural traits. This study demonstrates that variations in the spatial pattern of savanna vegetation over periods of 10 to 20 years at the local and landscape scale strongly affect bird diversity and abundance. Thus, it is essential to monitor and manage both spatial and temporal variability in avian habitat to achieve long-term biodiversity outcomes. PMID:24066138

Plants and pixels: Comparing phenologies from the ground and from space (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutishauser, T.; Stoekli, R.; Jeanneret, F.; Peñuelas, J.

2010-12-01

Changes in the seasonality of life cycles of plants as recorded in phenological observations have been widely analysed at the species level with data available for many decades back in time. At the same time, seasonality changes in satellite-based observations and prognostic phenology models comprise information at the pixel-size or landscape scale. Change analysis of satellite-based records is restricted due to relatively short satellite records that further include gaps while model-based analyses are biased due to current model deficiencies. At 30 selected sites across Europe, we analysed three different sources of plant seasonality during the 1971-2000 period. Data consisted of (1) species-specific development stages of flowering and leave-out with different species observed at each site. (2) We used a synthetic phenological metric that integrates the common interannual phenological signal across all species at one site. (3) We estimated daily Leaf Area Index with a prognostic phenology model. The prior uncertainties of the model’s empirical parameter space are constrained by assimilating the Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We extracted the day of year when the 25%, 50% and 75% thresholds were passed each spring. The question arises how the three phenological signals compare and correlate across climate zones in Europe. Is there a match between single species observations, species-based ground-observed metrics and the landscape-scale prognostic model? Are there single key-species across Europe that best represent a landscape scale measure from the prognostic model? Can one source substitute another and serve as proxy-data? What can we learn from potential mismatches? Focusing on changes in spring this contribution presents first results of an ongoing comparison study from a number of European test sites that will be extended to the pan-European phenological database Cost725 and PEP725.

The importance of radiation for semiempirical water-use efficiency models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boese, Sven; Jung, Martin; Carvalhais, Nuno; Reichstein, Markus

2017-06-01

Water-use efficiency (WUE) is a fundamental property for the coupling of carbon and water cycles in plants and ecosystems. Existing model formulations predicting this variable differ in the type of response of WUE to the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit of water (VPD). We tested a representative WUE model on the ecosystem scale at 110 eddy covariance sites of the FLUXNET initiative by predicting evapotranspiration (ET) based on gross primary productivity (GPP) and VPD. We found that introducing an intercept term in the formulation increases model performance considerably, indicating that an additional factor needs to be considered. We demonstrate that this intercept term varies seasonally and we subsequently associate it with radiation. Replacing the constant intercept term with a linear function of global radiation was found to further improve model predictions of ET. Our new semiempirical ecosystem WUE formulation indicates that, averaged over all sites, this radiation term accounts for up to half (39-47 %) of transpiration. These empirical findings challenge the current understanding of water-use efficiency on the ecosystem scale.

Applications of turbidity monitoring to forest management in California.

PubMed

Harris, Richard R; Sullivan, Kathleen; Cafferata, Peter H; Munn, John R; Faucher, Kevin M

2007-09-01

Many California streams have been adversely affected by sedimentation caused by historic and current land uses, including timber harvesting. The impacts of timber harvesting and logging transportation systems on erosion and sediment delivery can be directly measured, modeled, or inferred from water quality measurements. California regulatory agencies, researchers, and land owners have adopted turbidity monitoring to determine effects of forest management practices on suspended sediment loads and water quality at watershed, project, and site scales. Watershed-scale trends in sediment discharge and responses to current forest practices may be estimated from data collected at automated sampling stations that measure turbidity, stream flow, suspended sediment concentrations, and other water quality parameters. Future results from these studies will provide a basis for assessing the effectiveness of modern forest practice regulations in protecting water quality. At the project scale, manual sampling of water column turbidity during high stream flow events within and downstream from active timber harvest plans can identify emerging sediment sources. Remedial actions can then be taken by managers to prevent or mitigate water quality impacts. At the site scale, manual turbidity sampling during storms or high stream flow events at sites located upstream and downstream from new, upgraded, or decommissioned stream crossings has proven to be a valuable way to determine whether measures taken to prevent post-construction erosion and sediment production are effective. Turbidity monitoring at the project and site scales is therefore an important tool for adaptive management. Uncertainty regarding the effects of current forest practices must be resolved through watershed-scale experiments. In the short term, this uncertainty will stimulate increased use of project and site-scale monitoring.

Tree-, stand- and site-specific controls on landscape-scale patterns of transpiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassler, Sibylle; Markus, Weiler; Theresa, Blume

2017-04-01

Transpiration is a key process in the hydrological cycle and a sound understanding and quantification of transpiration and its spatial variability is essential for management decisions as well as for improving the parameterisation of hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models. For individual trees, transpiration is commonly estimated by measuring sap flow. Besides evaporative demand and water availability, tree-specific characteristics such as species, size or social status control sap flow amounts of individual trees. Within forest stands, properties such as species composition, basal area or stand density additionally affect sap flow, for example via competition mechanisms. Finally, sap flow patterns might also be influenced by landscape-scale characteristics such as geology, slope position or aspect because they affect water and energy availability; however, little is known about the dynamic interplay of these controls. We studied the relative importance of various tree-, stand- and site-specific characteristics with multiple linear regression models to explain the variability of sap velocity measurements in 61 beech and oak trees, located at 24 sites spread over a 290 km2-catchment in Luxembourg. For each of 132 consecutive days of the growing season of 2014 we modelled the daily sap velocities of these 61 trees and determined the importance of the different predictors. Results indicate that a combination of tree-, stand- and site-specific factors controls sap velocity patterns in the landscape, namely tree species, tree diameter, the stand density, geology and aspect. Compared to these predictors, spatial variability of atmospheric demand and soil moisture explains only a small fraction of the variability in the daily datasets. However, the temporal dynamics of the explanatory power of the tree-specific characteristics, especially species, are correlated to the temporal dynamics of potential evaporation. Thus, transpiration estimates at the landscape scale would benefit from not only considering hydro-meteorological drivers, but also including tree, stand and site characteristics in order to improve the spatial representation of transpiration for hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models.

Representativeness of the ground observational sites and up-scaling of the point soil moisture measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jinlei; Wen, Jun; Tian, Hui

2016-02-01

Soil moisture plays an increasingly important role in the cycle of energy-water exchange, climate change, and hydrologic processes. It is usually measured at a point site, but regional soil moisture is essential for validating remote sensing products and numerical modeling results. In the study reported in this paper, the minimal number of required sites (NRS) for establishing a research observational network and the representative single sites for regional soil moisture estimation are discussed using the soil moisture data derived from the ;Maqu soil moisture observational network; (101°40‧-102°40‧E, 33°30‧-35°45‧N), which is supported by Chinese Academy of Science. Furthermore, the best up-scaling method suitable for this network has been studied by evaluating four commonly used up-scaling methods. The results showed that (1) Under a given accuracy requirement R ⩾ 0.99, RMSD ⩽ 0.02 m3/m3, NRS at both 5 and 10 cm depth is 10. (2) Representativeness of the sites has been validated by time stability analysis (TSA), time sliding correlation analysis (TSCA) and optimal combination of sites (OCS). NST01 is the most representative site at 5 cm depth for the first two methods; NST07 and NST02 are the most representative sites at 10 cm depth. The optimum combination sites at 5 cm depth are NST01, NST02, and NST07. NST05, NST08, and NST13 are the best group at 10 cm depth. (3) Linear fitting, compared with other three methods, is the best up-scaling method for all types of representative sites obtained above, and linear regression equations between a single site and regional soil moisture are established hereafter. ;Single site; obtained by OCS has the greatest up-scaling effect, and TSCA takes the second place. (4) Linear fitting equations show good practicability in estimating the variation of regional soil moisture from July 3, 2013 to July 3, 2014, when a large number of observed soil moisture data are lost.

NREL and IBM Improve Solar Forecasting with Big Data | Energy Systems

Science.gov Websites

forecasting model using deep-machine-learning technology. The multi-scale, multi-model tool, named Watt-sun the first standard suite of metrics for this purpose. Validating Watt-sun at multiple sites across the

Scaling up of Carbon Exchange Dynamics from AmeriFlux Sites to a Super-Region in the Eastern United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hans Peter Schmid; Craig Wayson

The primary objective of this project was to evaluate carbon exchange dynamics across a region of North America between the Great Plains and the East Coast. This region contains about 40 active carbon cycle research (AmeriFlux) sites in a variety of climatic and landuse settings, from upland forest to urban development. The core research involved a scaling strategy that uses measured fluxes of CO{sub 2}, energy, water, and other biophysical and biometric parameters to train and calibrate surface-vegetation-atmosphere models, in conjunction with satellite (MODIS) derived drivers. To achieve matching of measured and modeled fluxes, the ecosystem parameters of the modelsmore » will be adjusted to the dynamically variable flux-tower footprints following Schmid (1997). High-resolution vegetation index variations around the flux sites have been derived from Landsat data for this purpose. The calibrated models are being used in conjunction with MODIS data, atmospheric re-analysis data, and digital land-cover databases to derive ecosystem exchange fluxes over the study domain.« less

Ecosystem Model Performance at Wetlands: Results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Schroeder, N. M.; NACP Site Synthesis Participants

2011-12-01

Northern peatlands contain a significant fraction of the global carbon pool, and their responses to hydrological change are likely to be important factors in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Global-scale carbon cycle modeling studies typically use general ecosystem models with coarse spatial resolution, often without peatland-specific processes. Here, seven ecosystem models were used to simulate CO2 fluxes at three field sites in Canada and the northern United States, including two nutrient-rich fens and one nutrient-poor, sphagnum-dominated bog, from 2002-2006. Flux residuals (simulated - observed) were positively correlated with measured water table for both gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) at the two fen sites for all models, and were positively correlated with water table at the bog site for the majority of models. Modeled diurnal cycles at fen sites agreed well with eddy covariance measurements overall. Eddy covariance GEP and ER were higher during dry periods than during wet periods, while model results predicted either the opposite relationship or no significant difference. At the bog site, eddy covariance GEP had no significant dependence on water table, while models predicted higher GEP during wet periods. All models significantly over-estimated GEP at the bog site, and all but one over-estimated ER at the bog site. Carbon cycle models in peatland-rich regions could be improved by incorporating better models or measurements of hydrology and by inhibiting GEP and ER rates under saturated conditions. Bogs and fens likely require distinct treatments in ecosystem models due to differences in nutrients, peat properties, and plant communities.

Climatic and agricultural drivers of soil erosion in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irvine, Brian; Kirkby, Mike; Fleskens, Luuk

2015-04-01

Soil erosion was the most frequently identified driver of land degradation across a selection of global research sites within the DESIRE-EU project. The PESERA model was adopted in the project to upscale field results and consider the potential biophysical impact both with and without stakeholder selected sustainable land management (SLM) technologies in place. The PESERA model was combined with the DESMICE economic model and focussed on forecasting the regional effects of combating desertification both in environmental and socio-economical terms. The PESERA-DESMICE approach is further developed in the WAHARA project to consider the potential of a range of water harvesting technologies to improve biophysical conditions. Modelling in the WAHARA project considers detail of water harvesting technologies at the study site scale through to a coarser application at the continental scale with the latter being informed by the detail provided by study site observations an approach adopted in DESIRE-EU. The PESERA-DESMICE approach considers the difference between a baseline scenario and a (water harvesting) technology scenario at both scales in terms of productivity, financial viability and scope for reducing erosion risk. This paper considers the continental scale and focuses on estimating the impact of in-situ water harvesting technologies across Africa under current and future agricultural and climate pressure. PESERA is adopted in this continental application as it implicitly considers the impact of land-use and climate and can be readily amended to simulate in-situ WHT. Input data for PESERA; land use, management (crop type and planting dates), soil data and topography are derived from global data resources. Climate data for present and future scenarios are available through the QUEST-GSI initiative, where future scenarios are based on the outputs of seven GCM's.

DEVELOPMENT OF REAL-TIME SITE-SPECIFIC MICROSCALE EMISSION FACTOR MODEL FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF HUMAN EXPOSURE TO MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The United States Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) National Expsoure Research Laboratory (NERL) has initiated a project to improve the methodology for modeling urban-scale human exposure to mobile source emissions. The modeling project has started by considering the nee...

Modeling the Distribution of Migratory Bird Stopovers to Inform Landscape-Scale Siting of Wind Development

PubMed Central

Pocewicz, Amy; Estes-Zumpf, Wendy A.; Andersen, Mark D.; Copeland, Holly E.; Keinath, Douglas A.; Griscom, Hannah R.

2013-01-01

Conservation of migratory birds requires understanding the distribution of and potential threats to their migratory habitats. However, although migratory birds are protected under international treaties, few maps have been available to represent migration at a landscape scale useful to target conservation efforts or inform the siting of wind energy developments that may affect migratory birds. To fill this gap, we developed models that predict where four groups of birds concentrate or stopover during their migration through the state of Wyoming, USA: raptors, wetland, riparian and sparse grassland birds. The models were based on existing literature and expert knowledge concerning bird migration behavior and ecology and validated using expert ratings and known occurrences. There was significant agreement between migratory occurrence data and migration models for all groups except raptors, and all models ranked well with experts. We measured the overlap between the migration concentration models and a predictive model of wind energy development to assess the potential exposure of migratory birds to wind development and illustrate the utility of migratory concentration models for landscape-scale planning. Wind development potential is high across 15% of Wyoming, and 73% of this high potential area intersects important migration concentration areas. From 5.2% to 18.8% of each group’s important migration areas was represented within this high wind potential area, with the highest exposures for sparse grassland birds and the lowest for riparian birds. Our approach could be replicated elsewhere to fill critical data gaps and better inform conservation priorities and landscape-scale planning for migratory birds. PMID:24098379

Stand-level forest structure and avian habitat: Scale dependencies in predicting occurrence in a heterogeneous forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, K.M.; Keeton, W.S.; Donovan, T.M.; Mitchell, B.

2008-01-01

We explored the role of stand-level forest structure and spatial extent of forest sampling in models of avian occurrence in northern hardwood-conifer forests for two species: black-throated blue warbler (Dendroica caerulescens) and ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapillus). We estimated site occupancy from point counts at 20 sites and characterized the forest structure at these sites at three spatial extents (0.2, 3.0, and 12.0 ha). Weight of evidence was greatest for habitat models using forest stand structure at the 12.0-ha extent and diminished only slightly at the 3.0-ha extent, a scale that was slightly larger than the average territory size of both species. Habitat models characterized at the 0.2-ha extent had low support, yet are the closest in design to those used in many of the habitat studies we reviewed. These results suggest that the role of stand-level vegetation may have been underestimated in the past, which will be of interest to land managers who use habitat models to assess the suitability of habitat for species of concern. Copyright ?? 2008 by the Society of American Foresters.

Scaling in situ cosmogenic nuclide production rates using analytical approximations to atmospheric cosmic-ray fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifton, Nathaniel; Sato, Tatsuhiko; Dunai, Tibor J.

2014-01-01

Several models have been proposed for scaling in situ cosmogenic nuclide production rates from the relatively few sites where they have been measured to other sites of interest. Two main types of models are recognized: (1) those based on data from nuclear disintegrations in photographic emulsions combined with various neutron detectors, and (2) those based largely on neutron monitor data. However, stubborn discrepancies between these model types have led to frequent confusion when calculating surface exposure ages from production rates derived from the models. To help resolve these discrepancies and identify the sources of potential biases in each model, we have developed a new scaling model based on analytical approximations to modeled fluxes of the main atmospheric cosmic-ray particles responsible for in situ cosmogenic nuclide production. Both the analytical formulations and the Monte Carlo model fluxes on which they are based agree well with measured atmospheric fluxes of neutrons, protons, and muons, indicating they can serve as a robust estimate of the atmospheric cosmic-ray flux based on first principles. We are also using updated records for quantifying temporal and spatial variability in geomagnetic and solar modulation effects on the fluxes. A key advantage of this new model (herein termed LSD) over previous Monte Carlo models of cosmogenic nuclide production is that it allows for faster estimation of scaling factors based on time-varying geomagnetic and solar inputs. Comparing scaling predictions derived from the LSD model with those of previously published models suggest potential sources of bias in the latter can be largely attributed to two factors: different energy responses of the secondary neutron detectors used in developing the models, and different geomagnetic parameterizations. Given that the LSD model generates flux spectra for each cosmic-ray particle of interest, it is also relatively straightforward to generate nuclide-specific scaling factors based on recently updated neutron and proton excitation functions (probability of nuclide production in a given nuclear reaction as a function of energy) for commonly measured in situ cosmogenic nuclides. Such scaling factors reflect the influence of the energy distribution of the flux folded with the relevant excitation functions. Resulting scaling factors indicate 3He shows the strongest positive deviation from the flux-based scaling, while 14C exhibits a negative deviation. These results are consistent with a recent Monte Carlo-based study using a different cosmic-ray physics code package but the same excitation functions.

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2008-01-01

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Air Emissions Inventories

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This site provides access to emissions data, regulations and guidance, electronic system access, resources and tools to support trends analysis, regional, and local scale air quality modeling, regulatory impact assessments.

Capability of a Mobile Monitoring System to Provide Real-Time Data Broadcasting and Near Real-Time Source Attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, M.; Olaguer, J.; Wijesinghe, A.; Colvin, J.; Neish, B.; Williams, J.

2014-12-01

It is becoming increasingly important to understand the emissions and health effects of industrial facilities. Many areas have no or limited sustained monitoring capabilities, making it difficult to quantify the major pollution sources affecting human health, especially in fence line communities. Developments in real-time monitoring and micro-scale modeling offer unique ways to tackle these complex issues. This presentation will demonstrate the capability of coupling real-time observations with micro-scale modeling to provide real-time information and near real-time source attribution. The Houston Advanced Research Center constructed the Mobile Acquisition of Real-time Concentrations (MARC) laboratory. MARC consists of a Ford E-350 passenger van outfitted with a Proton Transfer Reaction Mass Spectrometer (PTR-MS) and meteorological equipment. This allows for the fast measurement of various VOCs important to air quality. The data recorded from the van is uploaded to an off-site database and the information is broadcast to a website in real-time. This provides for off-site monitoring of MARC's observations, which allows off-site personnel to provide immediate input to the MARC operators on how to best achieve project objectives. The information stored in the database can also be used to provide near real-time source attribution. An inverse model has been used to ascertain the amount, location, and timing of emissions based on MARC measurements in the vicinity of industrial sites. The inverse model is based on a 3D micro-scale Eulerian forward and adjoint air quality model known as the HARC model. The HARC model uses output from the Quick Urban and Industrial Complex (QUIC) wind model and requires a 3D digital model of the monitored facility based on lidar or industrial permit data. MARC is one of the instrument platforms deployed during the 2014 Benzene and other Toxics Exposure Study (BEE-TEX) in Houston, TX. The main goal of the study is to quantify and explain the origin of ambient exposure to hazardous air pollutants in an industrial fence line community near the Houston Ship Channel. Preliminary results derived from analysis of MARC observations during the BEE-TEX experiment will be presented.

Predicting the natural flow regime: Models for assessing hydrological alteration in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlisle, D.M.; Falcone, J.; Wolock, D.M.; Meador, M.R.; Norris, R.H.

2009-01-01

Understanding the extent to which natural streamflow characteristics have been altered is an important consideration for ecological assessments of streams. Assessing hydrologic condition requires that we quantify the attributes of the flow regime that would be expected in the absence of anthropogenic modifications. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether selected streamflow characteristics could be predicted at regional and national scales using geospatial data. Long-term, gaged river basins distributed throughout the contiguous US that had streamflow characteristics representing least disturbed or near pristine conditions were identified. Thirteen metrics of the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing and rate of change of streamflow were calculated using a 20-50 year period of record for each site. We used random forests (RF), a robust statistical modelling approach, to develop models that predicted the value for each streamflow metric using natural watershed characteristics. We compared the performance (i.e. bias and precision) of national- and regional-scale predictive models to that of models based on landscape classifications, including major river basins, ecoregions and hydrologic landscape regions (HLR). For all hydrologic metrics, landscape stratification models produced estimates that were less biased and more precise than a null model that accounted for no natural variability. Predictive models at the national and regional scale performed equally well, and substantially improved predictions of all hydrologic metrics relative to landscape stratification models. Prediction error rates ranged from 15 to 40%, but were 25% for most metrics. We selected three gaged, non-reference sites to illustrate how predictive models could be used to assess hydrologic condition. These examples show how the models accurately estimate predisturbance conditions and are sensitive to changes in streamflow variability associated with long-term land-use change. We also demonstrate how the models can be applied to predict expected natural flow characteristics at ungaged sites. ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Case studies, cross-site comparisons, and the challenge of generalization: comparing agent-based models of land-use change in frontier regions

PubMed Central

Parker, Dawn C.; Entwisle, Barbara; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Vanwey, Leah K.; Manson, Steven M.; Moran, Emilio; An, Li; Deadman, Peter; Evans, Tom P.; Linderman, Marc; Rizi, S. Mohammad Mussavi; Malanson, George

2009-01-01

Cross-site comparisons of case studies have been identified as an important priority by the land-use science community. From an empirical perspective, such comparisons potentially allow generalizations that may contribute to production of global-scale land-use and land-cover change projections. From a theoretical perspective, such comparisons can inform development of a theory of land-use science by identifying potential hypotheses and supporting or refuting evidence. This paper undertakes a structured comparison of four case studies of land-use change in frontier regions that follow an agent-based modeling approach. Our hypothesis is that each case study represents a particular manifestation of a common process. Given differences in initial conditions among sites and the time at which the process is observed, actual mechanisms and outcomes are anticipated to differ substantially between sites. Our goal is to reveal both commonalities and differences among research sites, model implementations, and ultimately, conclusions derived from the modeling process. PMID:19960107

Case studies, cross-site comparisons, and the challenge of generalization: comparing agent-based models of land-use change in frontier regions.

PubMed

Parker, Dawn C; Entwisle, Barbara; Rindfuss, Ronald R; Vanwey, Leah K; Manson, Steven M; Moran, Emilio; An, Li; Deadman, Peter; Evans, Tom P; Linderman, Marc; Rizi, S Mohammad Mussavi; Malanson, George

2008-01-01

Cross-site comparisons of case studies have been identified as an important priority by the land-use science community. From an empirical perspective, such comparisons potentially allow generalizations that may contribute to production of global-scale land-use and land-cover change projections. From a theoretical perspective, such comparisons can inform development of a theory of land-use science by identifying potential hypotheses and supporting or refuting evidence. This paper undertakes a structured comparison of four case studies of land-use change in frontier regions that follow an agent-based modeling approach. Our hypothesis is that each case study represents a particular manifestation of a common process. Given differences in initial conditions among sites and the time at which the process is observed, actual mechanisms and outcomes are anticipated to differ substantially between sites. Our goal is to reveal both commonalities and differences among research sites, model implementations, and ultimately, conclusions derived from the modeling process.

From Dynamic Global Vegetation Modelling to Real-World regional and local Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinkamp, J.; Forrest, M.; Kamm, K.; Leiblein-Wild, M.; Pachzelt, A.; Werner, C.; Hickler, T.

2015-12-01

Dynamic (global) vegetation models (DGVM) can be applied to any spatial resolution on the local, national, continental and global scale given suitable climatic and geographic input forcing data. LPJ-GUESS, the main DGVM applied in our research group, uses the plant functional type (PFT) concept in the global setup with typically about 10-20 tree PFTs (subdivided into tropical, temperate and boreal) and two herbaceous PFTs by default. When modelling smaller spatial extents, such as continental (e.g. Europe/North America) national domains, or individual sites (e.g. Frankfurt, Germany), i.e. the scale of decision making, it becomes necessary to refine the PFT representation, the model initialization and validation and, in some case, to include additional processes. I will present examples of LPJ-GUESS applications at the continental to local scale performed by our working group including i.) a European simulation representing the main tree species and Mediterranean shrubs, ii.) a climate impact study for Turkey, iii.) coupled dynamic large grazer-vegetation modelling across Africa and, iv.) modelling an allergenic and in Europe invasive shrub (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), iv.) simulating water usage by an oak-pine forest stand near Frankfurt, and v.) stand specific differences in modelling at the FACE sites. Finally, I will present some thoughts on how to advance the models in terms of more detailed and realistic PFT or species parameterizations accounting for adaptive functional trait responses also within species.

Field-Integrated Studies of Long-Term Sustainability of Chromium Bioreduction at Hanford 100H Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Long, Philip E.

2006-06-01

The objectives of the project are to investigate coupled hydraulic, geochemical, and microbial conditions, and to determine the critical biogeochemical parameters necessary to maximize the extent of Cr(VI) bioreduction and minimize Cr(III) reoxidation in groundwater. Specific goals of the project are as follows: (1) Field testing and monitoring of Cr(VI) bioreduction in ground water and its transformation into insoluble species of Cr(III) at the Hanford 100H site, to develop the optimal strategy of water sampling for chemical, microbial, stable isotope analyses, and noninvasive geophysical monitoring; (2) Bench-scale flow and transport investigations using columns of undisturbed sediments to obtain diffusion andmore » kinetic parameters needed for the development of a numerical model, predictions of Cr(VI) bioreduction, and potential of Cr(III) reoxidation; and (3) Development of a multiphase, multi-component 3D reactive transport model and a code, TOUGHREACT-BIO, to predict coupled biogeochemical-hydrological processes associated with bioremediation, and to calibrate and validate the developed code based on the results of bench-scale and field-scale Cr(VI) biostimulation experiments in ground water at the Hanford Site.« less

Multimethod, multistate Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for use in regional monitoring of wolves.

PubMed

Jiménez, José; García, Emilio J; Llaneza, Luis; Palacios, Vicente; González, Luis Mariano; García-Domínguez, Francisco; Múñoz-Igualada, Jaime; López-Bao, José Vicente

2016-08-01

In many cases, the first step in large-carnivore management is to obtain objective, reliable, and cost-effective estimates of population parameters through procedures that are reproducible over time. However, monitoring predators over large areas is difficult, and the data have a high level of uncertainty. We devised a practical multimethod and multistate modeling approach based on Bayesian hierarchical-site-occupancy models that combined multiple survey methods to estimate different population states for use in monitoring large predators at a regional scale. We used wolves (Canis lupus) as our model species and generated reliable estimates of the number of sites with wolf reproduction (presence of pups). We used 2 wolf data sets from Spain (Western Galicia in 2013 and Asturias in 2004) to test the approach. Based on howling surveys, the naïve estimation (i.e., estimate based only on observations) of the number of sites with reproduction was 9 and 25 sites in Western Galicia and Asturias, respectively. Our model showed 33.4 (SD 9.6) and 34.4 (3.9) sites with wolf reproduction, respectively. The number of occupied sites with wolf reproduction was 0.67 (SD 0.19) and 0.76 (0.11), respectively. This approach can be used to design more cost-effective monitoring programs (i.e., to define the sampling effort needed per site). Our approach should inspire well-coordinated surveys across multiple administrative borders and populations and lead to improved decision making for management of large carnivores on a landscape level. The use of this Bayesian framework provides a simple way to visualize the degree of uncertainty around population-parameter estimates and thus provides managers and stakeholders an intuitive approach to interpreting monitoring results. Our approach can be widely applied to large spatial scales in wildlife monitoring where detection probabilities differ between population states and where several methods are being used to estimate different population parameters. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Soil carbon storage following road removal and timber harvesting in redwood forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seney, Joseph; Madej, Mary Ann

2015-01-01

Soil carbon storage plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and is important for sustaining forest productivity. Removal of unpaved forest roads has the potential for increasing carbon storage in soils on forested terrain as treated sites revegetate and soil properties improve on the previously compacted road surfaces. We compared soil organic carbon (SOC) content at several depths on treated roads to SOC in adjacent second-growth forests and old-growth redwood forests in California, determined whether SOC in the upper 50 cm of soil varies with the type of road treatment, and assessed the relative importance of site-scale and landscape-scale variables in predicting SOC accumulation in treated road prisms and second-growth redwood forests. Soils were sampled at 5, 20, and 50 cm depths on roads treated by two methods (decommissioning and full recontouring), and in adjacent second-growth and old-growth forests in north coastal California. Road treatments spanned a period of 32 years, and covered a range of geomorphic and vegetative conditions. SOC decreased with depth at all sites. Treated roads on convex sites exhibited higher SOC than on concave sites, and north aspect sites had higher SOC than south aspect sites. SOC at 5, 20, and 50 cm depths did not differ significantly between decommissioned roads (treated 18–32 years previous) and fully recontoured roads (treated 2–12 years previous). Nevertheless, stepwise multiple regression models project higher SOC developing on fully recontoured roads in the next few decades. The best predictors for SOC on treated roads and in second-growth forest incorporated aspect, vegetation type, soil depth, lithology, distance from the ocean, years since road treatment (for the road model) and years since harvest (for the forest model). The road model explained 48% of the variation in SOC in the upper 50 cm of mineral soils and the forest model, 54%

Full-scale monitoring of wind and suspension bridge response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snæbjörnsson, J. T.; Jakobsen, J. B.; Cheynet, E.; Wang, J.

2017-12-01

Monitoring of real structures is important for many reasons. For structures susceptible to environmental actions, full-scale observations can provide valuable information about the environmental conditions at the site, as well as the characteristics of the excitation acting on the structure. The recorded data, if properly analyzed, can be used to validate and/or update experiments and models used in the design of new structures, such as the load description and modelling of the structural response. Various aspects of full-scale monitoring are discussed in the paper and the full-scale wind engineering laboratory at the Lysefjord suspension bridge introduced. The natural excitation of the bridge comes from wind and traffic. The surrounding terrain is complex and its effect on the wind flow can only be fully studied on site, in full-scale. The monitoring program and associated data analysis are described. These include various studies of the relevant turbulence characteristics, identification of dynamic properties and estimation of wind- and traffic-induced response parameters. The overall monitoring activity also included a novel application of the remote optical sensing in bridge engineering, which is found to have an important potential to complement traditional “single-point” wind observations by sonic anemometers.

Mapping spatial patterns of denitrifiers at large scales (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philippot, L.; Ramette, A.; Saby, N.; Bru, D.; Dequiedt, S.; Ranjard, L.; Jolivet, C.; Arrouays, D.

2010-12-01

Little information is available regarding the landscape-scale distribution of microbial communities and its environmental determinants. Here we combined molecular approaches and geostatistical modeling to explore spatial patterns of the denitrifying community at large scales. The distribution of denitrifrying community was investigated over 107 sites in Burgundy, a 31 500 km2 region of France, using a 16 X 16 km sampling grid. At each sampling site, the abundances of denitrifiers and 42 soil physico-chemical properties were measured. The relative contributions of land use, spatial distance, climatic conditions, time and soil physico-chemical properties to the denitrifier spatial distribution were analyzed by canonical variation partitioning. Our results indicate that 43% to 85% of the spatial variation in community abundances could be explained by the measured environmental parameters, with soil chemical properties (mostly pH) being the main driver. We found spatial autocorrelation up to 739 km and used geostatistical modelling to generate predictive maps of the distribution of denitrifiers at the landscape scale. Studying the distribution of the denitrifiers at large scale can help closing the artificial gap between the investigation of microbial processes and microbial community ecology, therefore facilitating our understanding of the relationships between the ecology of denitrifiers and N-fluxes by denitrification.

Scaling Forest Management Practices in Earth System Models: Case Study of Southeast and Pacific Northwest Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourmokhtarian, A.; Becknell, J. M.; Hall, J.; Desai, A. R.; Boring, L. R.; Duffy, P.; Staudhammer, C. L.; Starr, G.; Dietze, M.

2014-12-01

A wide array of human-induced disturbances can alter the structure and function of forests, including climate change, disturbance and management. While there have been numerous studies on climate change impacts on forests, interactions of management with changing climate and natural disturbance are poorly studied. Forecasts of the range of plausible responses of forests to climate change and management are need for informed decision making on new management approaches under changing climate, as well as adaptation strategies for coming decades. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) provide an excellent opportunity to investigate and assess simultaneous responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climatic perturbations and management across multiple spatio-temporal scales, but currently do not represent a wide array of management activities known to impact carbon, water, surface energy fluxes, and biodiversity. The Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) incorporates non-linear impacts of fine-scale (~10-1 km) heterogeneity in ecosystem structure both horizontally and vertically at a plant level. Therefore it is an ideal candidate to incorporate different forest management practices and test various hypotheses under changing climate and across various spatial scales. The management practices that we implemented were: clear-cut, conversion, planting, partial harvest, low intensity fire, restoration, salvage, and herbicide. The results were validated against observed data across 8 different sites in the U.S. Southeast (Duke Forest, Joseph Jones Ecological Research Center, North Carolina Loblolly Pine, and Ordway-Swisher Biological Station) and Pacific Northwest (Metolius Research Natural Area, H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Wind River Field Station, and Mount Rainier National Park). These sites differ in regards to climate, vegetation, soil, and historical land disturbance as well as management approaches. Results showed that different management practices could successfully and realistically be implemented in the ED2 model at a site level. Moreover, sensitivity analyses determined the most important processes at different spatial scales, and also those which could be ignored while minimizing overall error.

Climate insensitivity of treeline in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, E. A.; Macias Fauria, M.

2011-12-01

Successful modelling efforts demonstrate that tree presence over a ~ 200 km2 alpine/subalpine area in the Front Ranges of the Canadian Rocky Mountains results from a multi-scale spatiotemporal process competition involving not only growing season temperatures but also topographical shelter, water availability, and substrate stability and availability. The study area was selected to represent the diversity of substrates and geomorphologic processes found in the Canadian Rockies, and ranges in elevation from 1400 to > 2800 meters above sea level. Tree presence was mapped at 10m resolution using a combination of remote sensing imagery (taken in 2008) and intensive ground truthing, and modelled with an ensemble of state-of-the-art environmental envelope models. Explanatory variables chosen represented not only temperature and moisture availability (computed over 1971-2000 climate normals), but also substrate diversity, slope angle and type, geomorphologic features, modelled regolith depth, and concavity/convexity of the terrain. Such variables were meant to serve as proxies for known convergent and divergent processes that occur on steep landscapes and that have profound influence on tree establishment and survival. Model performance was very high and revealed substrate and geomorphology to be the most important explanatory variables for tree presence in the area. Available high-resolution imagery for 1954 enabled the mapping of tree presence over most of the study area and the identification of changes in the distribution of trees over the last nearly six decades. Overall, the only major observed changes were related to post-fire stand recovery, and areas with treeline advance were insignificant at the landscape scale. Tree suitable sites were projected onto high resolution grids of late 21st century climatic conditions predicted by regional climate models driven by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Emissions scenario was A2 (as defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), at the higher end of emissions scenarios, and thus at the higher end of forecasted temperature increases. Projected changes in tree site availability were minimal at the landscape scale, as the presence of trees in the uppermost part of these forests largely depends on the existence of suitable sites largely linked to topography. Such places are the result of geomorphologic processes acting on a framework set by the structural geology of the region, and thus the appearance of new sites suitable for tree growth does not depend on short (i.e. yearly to decadal) time scales but on longer ones (i.e. centuries to millennia). This work has the strength of studying treeline over a whole area, thus avoiding potential biases in the regional representativity of local study sites, and warns against careless upscaling of site-based studies. Moreover, we suggest that the term 'treeline' is weak at a high-resolution landscape scale in our study area (i.e. young glaciated terrain) because the distribution of trees over the landscape is spatially irregular and most of the processes enabling or preventing tree presence occur over its whole elevational range.

Meter scale variation in shrub dominance and soil moisture structure Arctic arthropod communities

PubMed Central

Hansen, Oskar Liset Pryds; Bowden, Joseph J.; Treier, Urs A.; Normand, Signe; Høye, Toke

2016-01-01

The Arctic is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world. This impacts Arctic species both directly, through increased temperatures, and indirectly, through structural changes in their habitats. Species are expected to exhibit idiosyncratic responses to structural change, which calls for detailed investigations at the species and community level. Here, we investigate how arthropod assemblages of spiders and beetles respond to variation in habitat structure at small spatial scales. We sampled transitions in shrub dominance and soil moisture between three different habitats (fen, dwarf shrub heath, and tall shrub tundra) at three different sites along a fjord gradient in southwest Greenland, using yellow pitfall cups. We identified 2,547 individuals belonging to 47 species. We used species richness estimation, indicator species analysis and latent variable modeling to examine differences in arthropod community structure in response to habitat variation at local (within site) and regional scales (between sites). We estimated species responses to the environment by fitting species-specific generalized linear models with environmental covariates. Species assemblages were segregated at the habitat and site level. Each habitat hosted significant indicator species, and species richness and diversity were significantly lower in fen habitats. Assemblage patterns were significantly linked to changes in soil moisture and vegetation height, as well as geographic location. We show that meter-scale variation among habitats affects arthropod community structure, supporting the notion that the Arctic tundra is a heterogeneous environment. To gain sufficient insight into temporal biodiversity change, we require studies of species distributions detailing species habitat preferences. PMID:27478709

The $500 Million Question: Can Charter Management Organizations Deliver Quality Education at Scale?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, Kevin; Lake, Robin

2011-01-01

Charter school management organizations (CMOs) have emerged as a popular means for bringing charter schooling to scale. Advocates credit CMOs with delivering a coherent model of charter schooling to a growing number of children across numerous sites. Skeptics have wondered whether CMOs constitute an effective management approach, whether they…

Comparing estimates of population change from occupancy and mark-recapture models for a territorial species

Treesearch

Mary M. Conner; John J. Keane; Claire V. Gallagher; Thomas E. Munton; Paula A. Shaklee

2016-01-01

Monitoring studies often use marked animals to estimate population abundance at small spatial scales. However, at smaller scales, occupancy sampling, which uses detection/nondetection data, may be useful where sites are approximately territories, and occupancy dynamics should be strongly correlated with population dynamics. Occupancy monitoring has advantages...

When small changes matter: the role of cross-scale interactions between habitat and ecological connectivity in recovery.

PubMed

Thrush, Simon F; Hewitt, Judi E; Lohrer, Andrew M; Chiaroni, Luca D

2013-01-01

Interaction between the diversity of local communities and the degree of connectivity between them has the potential to influence local recovery rates and thus profoundly affect community dynamics in the face of the cumulative impacts that occur across regions. Although such complex interactions have been modeled, field experiments in natural ecosystems to investigate the importance of interactions between local and regional processes are rare, especially so in coastal marine seafloor habitats subjected to many types of disturbance. We conducted a defaunation experiment at eight subtidal sites, incorporating manipulation of habitat structure, to test the relative importance of local habitat features and colonist supply in influencing macrobenthic community recovery rate. Our sites varied in community composition, habitat characteristics, and hydrodynamic conditions, and we conducted the experiment in two phases, exposing defaunated plots to colonists during periods of either high or low larval colonist supply. In both phases of the experiment, five months after disturbance, we were able to develop models that explained a large proportion of variation in community recovery rate between sites. Our results emphasize that the connectivity to the regional species pool influences recovery rate, and although local habitat effects were important, the strength of these effects was affected by broader-scale site characteristics and connectivity. Empirical evidence that cross-scale interactions are important in disturbance-recovery dynamics emphasizes the complex dynamics underlying seafloor community responses to cumulative disturbance.

Generalizing ecological site concepts of the Colorado Plateau for landscape-level applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duniway, Michael C.; Nauman, Travis; Johanson, Jamin K.; Green, Shane; Miller, Mark E.; Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.

2016-01-01

Numerous ecological site descriptions in the southern Utah portion of the Colorado Plateau can be difficult to navigate, so we held a workshop aimed at adding value and functionality to the current ecological site system.We created new groups of ecological sites and drafted state-and-transition models for these new groups.We were able to distill the current large number of ecological sites in the study area (ca. 150) into eight ecological site groups that capture important variability in ecosystem dynamics.Several inventory and monitoring programs and landscape scale planning actions will likely benefit from more generalized ecological site group concepts.

Prediction of resource volumes at untested locations using simple local prediction models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2006-01-01

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

Large-scale Estimates of Leaf Area Index from Active Remote Sensing Laser Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkinson, C.; Mahoney, C.

2016-12-01

Leaf area index (LAI) is a key parameter that describes the spatial distribution of foliage within forest canopies which in turn control numerous relationships between the ground, canopy, and atmosphere. The retrieval of LAI has demonstrated success by in-situ (digital) hemispherical photography (DHP) and airborne laser scanning (ALS) data; however, field and ALS acquisitions are often spatially limited (100's km2) and costly. Large-scale (>1000's km2) retrievals have been demonstrated by optical sensors, however, accuracies remain uncertain due to the sensor's inability to penetrate the canopy. The spaceborne Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) provides a possible solution in retrieving large-scale derivations whilst simultaneously penetrating the canopy. LAI retrieved by multiple DHP from 6 Australian sites, representing a cross-section of Australian ecosystems, were employed to model ALS LAI, which in turn were used to infer LAI from GLAS data at 5 other sites. An optimally filtered GLAS dataset was then employed in conjunction with a host of supplementary data to build a Random Forest (RF) model to infer predictions (and uncertainties) of LAI at a 250 m resolution across the forested regions of Australia. Predictions were validated against ALS-based LAI from 20 sites (R2=0.64, RMSE=1.1 m2m-2); MODIS-based LAI were also assessed against these sites (R2=0.30, RMSE=1.78 m2m-2) to demonstrate the strength of GLAS-based predictions. The large-scale nature of current predictions was also leveraged to demonstrate large-scale relationships of LAI with other environmental characteristics, such as: canopy height, elevation, and slope. The need for such wide-scale quantification of LAI is key in the assessment and modification of forest management strategies across Australia. Such work also assists Australia's Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network, in fulfilling their government issued mandates.

Fine-temporal forecasting of outbreak probability and severity: Ross River virus in Western Australia.

PubMed

Koolhof, I S; Bettiol, S; Carver, S

2017-10-01

Health warnings of mosquito-borne disease risk require forecasts that are accurate at fine-temporal resolutions (weekly scales); however, most forecasting is coarse (monthly). We use environmental and Ross River virus (RRV) surveillance to predict weekly outbreak probabilities and incidence spanning tropical, semi-arid, and Mediterranean regions of Western Australia (1991-2014). Hurdle and linear models were used to predict outbreak probabilities and incidence respectively, using time-lagged environmental variables. Forecast accuracy was assessed by model fit and cross-validation. Residual RRV notification data were also examined against mitigation expenditure for one site, Mandurah 2007-2014. Models were predictive of RRV activity, except at one site (Capel). Minimum temperature was an important predictor of RRV outbreaks and incidence at all predicted sites. Precipitation was more likely to cause outbreaks and greater incidence among tropical and semi-arid sites. While variable, mitigation expenditure coincided positively with increased RRV incidence (r 2 = 0·21). Our research demonstrates capacity to accurately predict mosquito-borne disease outbreaks and incidence at fine-temporal resolutions. We apply our findings, developing a user-friendly tool enabling managers to easily adopt this research to forecast region-specific RRV outbreaks and incidence. Approaches here may be of value to fine-scale forecasting of RRV in other areas of Australia, and other mosquito-borne diseases.

Microbiological-enhanced mixing across scales during in-situ bioreduction of metals and radionuclides at Department of Energy Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Valocchi, Albert; Werth, Charles; Liu, Wen-Tso

Bioreduction is being actively investigated as an effective strategy for subsurface remediation and long-term management of DOE sites contaminated by metals and radionuclides (i.e. U(VI)). These strategies require manipulation of the subsurface, usually through injection of chemicals (e.g., electron donor) which mix at varying scales with the contaminant to stimulate metal reducing bacteria. There is evidence from DOE field experiments suggesting that mixing limitations of substrates at all scales may affect biological growth and activity for U(VI) reduction. Although current conceptual models hold that biomass growth and reduction activity is limited by physical mixing processes, a growing body of literaturemore » suggests that reaction could be enhanced by cell-to-cell interaction occurring over length scales extending tens to thousands of microns. Our project investigated two potential mechanisms of enhanced electron transfer. The first is the formation of single- or multiple-species biofilms that transport electrons via direct electrical connection such as conductive pili (i.e. ‘nanowires’) through biofilms to where the electron acceptor is available. The second is through diffusion of electron carriers from syntrophic bacteria to dissimilatory metal reducing bacteria (DMRB). The specific objectives of this work are (i) to quantify the extent and rate that electrons are transported between microorganisms in physical mixing zones between an electron donor and electron acceptor (e.g. U(IV)), (ii) to quantify the extent that biomass growth and reaction are enhanced by interspecies electron transport, and (iii) to integrate mixing across scales (e.g., microscopic scale of electron transfer and macroscopic scale of diffusion) in an integrated numerical model to quantify these mechanisms on overall U(VI) reduction rates. We tested these hypotheses with five tasks that integrate microbiological experiments, unique micro-fluidics experiments, flow cell experiments, and multi-scale numerical models. Continuous fed-batch reactors were used to derive kinetic parameters for DMRB, and to develop an enrichment culture for elucidation of syntrophic relationships in a complex microbial community. Pore and continuum scale experiments using microfluidic and bench top flow cells were used to evaluate the impact of cell-to-cell and microbial interactions on reaction enhancement in mixing-limited bioactive zones, and the mechanisms of this interaction. Some of the microfluidic experiments were used to develop and test models that considers direct cell-to-cell interactions during metal reduction. Pore scale models were incorporated into a multi-scale hybrid modeling framework that combines pore scale modeling at the reaction interface with continuum scale modeling. New computational frameworks for combining continuum and pore-scale models were also developed« less

System-Scale Model of Aquifer, Vadose Zone, and River Interactions for the Hanford 300 Area - Application to Uranium Reactive Transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rockhold, Mark L.; Bacon, Diana H.; Freedman, Vicky L.

2013-10-01

This report represents a synthesis and integration of basic and applied research into a system-scale model of the Hanford 300 Area groundwater uranium plume, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Richland Operations (DOE-RL) office. The report integrates research findings and data from DOE Office of Science (DOE-SC), Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM), and DOE-RL projects, and from the site remediation and closure contractor, Washington Closure Hanford, LLC (WCH). The three-dimensional, system-scale model addresses water flow and reactive transport of uranium for the coupled vadose zone, unconfined aquifer, and Columbia River shoreline of the Hanford 300 Area. The system-scale modelmore » of the 300 Area was developed to be a decision-support tool to evaluate processes of the total system affecting the groundwater uranium plume. The model can also be used to address “what if” questions regarding different remediation endpoints, and to assist in design and evaluation of field remediation efforts. For example, the proposed cleanup plan for the Hanford 300 Area includes removal, treatment, and disposal of contaminated sediments from known waste sites, enhanced attenuation of uranium hot spots in the vadose and periodically rewetted zone, and continued monitoring of groundwater with institutional controls. Illustrative simulations of polyphosphate infiltration were performed to demonstrate the ability of the system-scale model to address these types of questions. The use of this model in conjunction with continued field monitoring is expected to provide a rigorous basis for developing operational strategies for field remediation and for defining defensible remediation endpoints.« less

Impact of Aquifer Heterogeneities on Autotrophic Denitrification.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, A.; Roques, C.; Selker, J. S.; Istok, J. D.; Pett-Ridge, J. C.

2015-12-01

Nitrate contamination in groundwater is a big challenge that will need to be addressed by hydrogeologists throughout the world. With a drinking water standard of 10mg/L of NO3-, innovative techniques will need to be pursued to ensure a decrease in drinking water nitrate concentration. At the pumping site scale, the influence and relationship between heterogeneous flow, mixing, and reactivity is not well understood. The purpose of this project is to incorporate both physical and chemical modeling techniques to better understand the effect of aquifer heterogeneities on autotrophic denitrification. We will investigate the link between heterogeneous hydraulic properties, transport, and the rate of autotrophic denitrification. Data collected in previous studies in laboratory experiments and pumping site scale experiments will be used to validate the models. The ultimate objective of this project is to develop a model in which such coupled processes are better understood resulting in best management practices of groundwater.

Effect of environmental conditions on the relationship between solar-induced fluorescence and gross primary productivity at an OzFlux grassland site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Manish; Schimel, David; Evans, Bradley; Frankenberg, Christian; Beringer, Jason; Drewry, Darren T.; Magney, Troy; Marang, Ian; Hutley, Lindsay; Moore, Caitlin; Eldering, Annmarie

2017-03-01

Recent studies have utilized coarse spatial and temporal resolution remotely sensed solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) for modeling terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) at regional scales. Although these studies have demonstrated the potential of SIF, there have been concerns about the ecophysiological basis of the relationship between SIF and GPP in different environmental conditions. Launched in 2014, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) has enabled fine-scale (1.3 by 2.5 km) retrievals of SIF that are comparable with measurements recorded at eddy covariance towers. In this study, we examine the effect of environmental conditions on the relationship of OCO-2 SIF with tower GPP over the course of a growing season at a well-characterized natural grassland site. Combining OCO-2 SIF and eddy covariance tower data with a canopy radiative transfer and an ecosystem model, we also assess the potential of OCO-2 SIF to constrain the estimates of Vcmax, one of the most important parameters in ecosystem models. Based on the results, we suggest that although environmental conditions play a role in determining the nature of relationship between SIF and GPP, overall, the linear relationship is more robust at ecosystem scale than the theory based on leaf-level processes might suggest. Our study also shows that the ability of SIF to constrain Vcmax is weak at the selected site.

Modeling opportunities and feasibility of siting wood-fired electrical generating facilities to facilitate landscape-scale fuel treatment with FIA BioSum.

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Fried; Glenn Christensen; Dale Weyermann; R. Jamie Barbour; Roger Fight; Bruce Hiserote; Guy Pinjuv

2005-01-01

Utilization of small diameter trees is viewed by many as the key to making landscape-scale fuel treatment financially feasible. But little capacity currently exists for utilizing such material and capacity of sufficient scale to have a significant impact on the economics of small diameter removals will only be added if predictable feedstocks can be assured. The FIA...

Next-Generation MDAC Discrimination Procedure Using Multi-Dimensional Spectral Analyses

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

explosions near the Lop Nor, Novaya Zemlya, Semipalatinsk , Nevada, and Indian test sites . We have computed regional phase spectra and are correcting... test sites as mainly due to differences in explosion P and S corner frequencies. Fisk (2007) used source model fits to estimate Pn, Pg, and Lg corner...frequencies for Nevada Test Site (NTS) explosions and found that Lg corner frequencies exhibit similar scaling with source size as for Pn and Pg

Modeling Groundwater Flow and Infiltration at Potential Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, B. W.; Lee, C.; Ma, C.; Knowlton, R. G.

2006-12-01

Taiwan is evaluating representative sites for the potential disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW), including consideration of shallow land burial and cavern disposal concepts. A representative site for shallow land burial is on a small island in the Taiwan Strait with basalt bedrock. The shallow land burial concept includes an engineered cover to limit infiltration into the waste disposal cell. A representative site for cavern disposal is located on the southeast coast of Taiwan. The tunnel system for this disposal concept would be several hundred meters below the mountainous land surface in argillite bedrock. The LLW will consist of about 966,000 drums, primarily from the operation and decommissioning of four nuclear power plants. Sandia National Laboratories and the Institute of Nuclear Energy Research have collaborated to develop performance assessment models to evaluate the long-term safety of LLW disposal at these representative sites. Important components of the system models are sub-models of groundwater flow in the natural system and infiltration through the engineered cover for the shallow land burial concept. The FEHM software code was used to simulate groundwater flow in three-dimensional models at both sites. In addition, a higher-resolution two-dimensional model was developed to simulate flow through the engineered tunnel system at the cavern site. The HELP software was used to simulate infiltration through the cover at the island site. The primary objective of these preliminary models is to provide a modeling framework, given the lack of site-specific data and detailed engineering design specifications. The steady-state groundwater flow model at the island site uses a specified recharge boundary at the land surface and specified head at the island shoreline. Simulated groundwater flow vectors are extracted from the FEHM model along a cross section through one of the LLW disposal cells for utilization in radionuclide transport simulations in the performance assessment model with the BLT-MS software. Infiltration through the engineered cover is simulated to be about 3 mm/yr and 49 mm/yr, with and without a geomembrane layer, respectively. For the cavern LLW disposal site, the FEHM basin-scale flow model uses specified recharge flux, constant head at the ocean shoreline, and head-dependent flux boundaries along flowing streams. Groundwater flow vectors are extracted along a cross section for use in radionuclide transport simulations. Transport simulations indicate that a significant fraction of contaminants may ultimately discharge to nearby streams. FEHM flow simulations with the drift-scale model indicate that the flow rates within the backfilled tunnels may be more than two orders of magnitude lower than in the host rock. Sandia National Laboratories is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

A process-based inventory model for landfill CH4 emissions inclusive of seasonal soil microclimate and CH4 oxidation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We have developed and field-validated an annual inventory model for California landfill CH4 emissions that incorporates both site-specific soil properties and soil microclimate modeling coupled to 0.5o scale global climatic models. Based on 1-D diffusion, CALMIM (California Landfill Methane Inventor...

Estimating occupancy in large landscapes: evaluation of amphibian monitoring in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gould, William R.; Patla, Debra A.; Daley, Rob; Corn, Paul Stephen; Hossack, Blake R.; Bennetts, Robert E.; Peterson, Charles R.

2012-01-01

Monitoring of natural resources is crucial to ecosystem conservation, and yet it can pose many challenges. Annual surveys for amphibian breeding occupancy were conducted in Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks over a 4-year period (2006–2009) at two scales: catchments (portions of watersheds) and individual wetland sites. Catchments were selected in a stratified random sample with habitat quality and ease of access serving as strata. All known wetland sites with suitable habitat were surveyed within selected catchments. Changes in breeding occurrence of tiger salamanders, boreal chorus frogs, and Columbia-spotted frogs were assessed using multi-season occupancy estimation. Numerous a priori models were considered within an information theoretic framework including those with catchment and site-level covariates. Habitat quality was the most important predictor of occupancy. Boreal chorus frogs demonstrated the greatest increase in breeding occupancy at the catchment level. Larger changes for all 3 species were detected at the finer site-level scale. Connectivity of sites explained occupancy rates more than other covariates, and may improve understanding of the dynamic processes occurring among wetlands within this ecosystem. Our results suggest monitoring occupancy at two spatial scales within large study areas is feasible and informative.

A photosynthesis-based two-leaf canopy stomatal ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model with single-layer sunlit and shaded leaf canopy scaling is implemented and evaluated in a diagnostic box model with the Pleim-Xiu land surface model (PX LSM) and ozone deposition model components taken directly from the meteorology and air quality modeling system—WRF/CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecast model and Community Multiscale Air Quality model). The photosynthesis-based model for PX LSM (PX PSN) is evaluated at a FLUXNET site for implementation against different parameterizations and the current PX LSM approach with a simple Jarvis function (PX Jarvis). Latent heat flux (LH) from PX PSN is further evaluated at five FLUXNET sites with different vegetation types and landscape characteristics. Simulated ozone deposition and flux from PX PSN are evaluated at one of the sites with ozone flux measurements. Overall, the PX PSN simulates LH as well as the PX Jarvis approach. The PX PSN, however, shows distinct advantages over the PX Jarvis approach for grassland that likely result from its treatment of C3 and C4 plants for CO2 assimilation. Simulations using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) rather than LAI measured at each site assess how the model would perform with grid averaged data used in WRF/CMAQ. MODIS LAI estimates degrade model performance at all sites but one site having exceptionally old and tall trees. Ozone deposition velocity and ozone flux along with LH

Multiphase modeling of geologic carbon sequestration in saline aquifers.

PubMed

Bandilla, Karl W; Celia, Michael A; Birkholzer, Jens T; Cihan, Abdullah; Leister, Evan C

2015-01-01

Geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is being considered as a climate change mitigation option in many future energy scenarios. Mathematical modeling is routinely used to predict subsurface CO2 and resident brine migration for the design of injection operations, to demonstrate the permanence of CO2 storage, and to show that other subsurface resources will not be degraded. Many processes impact the migration of CO2 and brine, including multiphase flow dynamics, geochemistry, and geomechanics, along with the spatial distribution of parameters such as porosity and permeability. In this article, we review a set of multiphase modeling approaches with different levels of conceptual complexity that have been used to model GCS. Model complexity ranges from coupled multiprocess models to simplified vertical equilibrium (VE) models and macroscopic invasion percolation models. The goal of this article is to give a framework of conceptual model complexity, and to show the types of modeling approaches that have been used to address specific GCS questions. Application of the modeling approaches is shown using five ongoing or proposed CO2 injection sites. For the selected sites, the majority of GCS models follow a simplified multiphase approach, especially for questions related to injection and local-scale heterogeneity. Coupled multiprocess models are only applied in one case where geomechanics have a strong impact on the flow. Owing to their computational efficiency, VE models tend to be applied at large scales. A macroscopic invasion percolation approach was used to predict the CO2 migration at one site to examine details of CO2 migration under the caprock. © 2015, National Ground Water Association.

Developing Conceptual Models of Biodegradation: Lessons Learned From a Long-Term Study of a Crude-Oil Contaminant Plume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cozzarelli, I. M.; Esaid, H. I.; Bekins, B. A.; Eganhouse, R. P.; Baedecker, M.

2002-05-01

Assessment of natural attenuation as a remedial option requires understanding the long-term fate of contaminant compounds. The development of correct conceptual models of biodegradation requires observations at spatial and temporal scales appropriate for the reactions being measured. For example, the availability of electron acceptors such as solid-phase iron oxides may vary at the cm scale due to aquifer heterogeneities. Characterizing the distribution of these oxides may require small-scale measurements over time scales of tens of years in order to assess their impact on the fate of contaminants. The long-term study of natural attenuation of hydrocarbons in a contaminant plume near Bemidji, MN provides insight into how natural attenuation of hydrocarbons evolves over time. The sandy glacial-outwash aquifer at this USGS Toxic Substances Hydrology research site was contaminated by crude oil in 1979. During the 16 years that data have been collected the shape and extent of the contaminant plume changed as redox reactions, most notably iron reduction, progressed over time. Investigation of the controlling microbial reactions in this system required a systematic and multi-scaled approach. Early indications of plume shrinkage were observed over a time scale of a few years, based on observation well data. These changes were associated with iron reduction near the crude-oil source. The depletion of Fe (III) oxides near the contaminant source caused the dissolved iron concentrations to increase and spread downgradient at a rate of approximately 3 m/year. The zone of maximum benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) concentrations has also spread within the anoxic plume. Subsequent analyses of sediment and water, collected at small-scale cm intervals from cores in the contaminant plume, provided insight into the evolution of redox zones at smaller scales. Contaminants, such as ortho-xylene, that appeared to be contained near the oil source based on the larger-scale observation well data, were observed to be migrating in thin layers as the aquifer evolved to methanogenic conditions in narrow zones. The impact of adequately identifying the microbially mediated redox reactions was illustrated with a novel inverse modeling effort (using both the USGS solute transport and biodegradation code BIOMOC and the USGS universal inverse modeling code UCODE) to quantify field-scale hydrocarbon dissolution and biodegradation at the Bemidji site. Extensive historical data compiled at the Bemidji site were used, including 1352 concentration observations from 30 wells and 66 core sections. The simulations reproduced the general large-scale evolution of the plume, but the percent BTEX mass removed from the oil body after 18 years varied significantly, depending on which biodegradation conceptual model was used. The best fit was obtained for the iron-reduction conceptual model, which incorporated the finite availability of Fe (III) in the aquifer and reproduced the field observation that depletion of solid-phase iron resulted in increased downgradient transport of BTEX compounds. The predicted benzene plume 50 years after the spill showed significantly higher concentrations of benzene for the iron-reduction model compared to other conceptual models tested. This study demonstrates that the long-term sustainability of the electron acceptors is key to predicting the ultimate fate of the hydrocarbons. Assessing this evolution of redox processes and developing an adequate conceptual model required observations on multiple spatial scales over the course of many years.

Demonstrating the Uneven Importance of Fine-Scale Forest Structure on Snow Distributions using High Resolution Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broxton, P. D.; Harpold, A. A.; van Leeuwen, W.; Biederman, J. A.

2016-12-01

Quantifying the amount of snow in forested mountainous environments, as well as how it may change due to warming and forest disturbance, is critical given its importance for water supply and ecosystem health. Forest canopies affect snow accumulation and ablation in ways that are difficult to observe and model. Furthermore, fine-scale forest structure can accentuate or diminish the effects of forest-snow interactions. Despite decades of research demonstrating the importance of fine-scale forest structure (e.g. canopy edges and gaps) on snow, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of where and when forest structure has the largest impact on snowpack mass and energy budgets. Here, we use a hyper-resolution (1 meter spatial resolution) mass and energy balance snow model called the Snow Physics and Laser Mapping (SnowPALM) model along with LIDAR-derived forest structure to determine where spatial variability of fine-scale forest structure has the largest influence on large scale mass and energy budgets. SnowPALM was set up and calibrated at sites representing diverse climates in New Mexico, Arizona, and California. Then, we compared simulations at different model resolutions (i.e. 1, 10, and 100 m) to elucidate the effects of including versus not including information about fine scale canopy structure. These experiments were repeated for different prescribed topographies (i.e. flat, 30% slope north, and south-facing) at each site. Higher resolution simulations had more snow at lower canopy cover, with the opposite being true at high canopy cover. Furthermore, there is considerable scatter, indicating that different canopy arrangements can lead to different amounts of snow, even when the overall canopy coverage is the same. This modeling is contributing to the development of a high resolution machine learning algorithm called the Snow Water Artificial Network (SWANN) model to generate predictions of snow distributions over much larger domains, which has implications for improving land surface models that do not currently resolve or parameterize fine-scale canopy structure. In addition, these findings have implications for understanding the potential of different forest management strategies (i.e. thinning) based on local topography and climate to maximize the amount and retention of snow.

GPP/RE Partitioning of Long-term Network Flux Data as a Tool for Estimating Ecosystem-scale Ecophysiological Parameters of Grasslands and Croplands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmanov, T. G.; Wylie, B. K.; Gu, Y.; Howard, D. M.; Zhang, L.

2013-12-01

The physiologically based model of canopy CO2 exchange by Thornly and Johnson (2000) modified to incorporate vapor pressure deficit (VPD) limitation of photosynthesis is a robust tool for partitioning tower network net CO2 exchange data into gross photosynthesis (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) (Gilmanov et al. 2013a, b). In addition to 30-min and daily photosynthesis and respiration values, the procedure generates daily estimates and uncertainties of essential ecosystem-scale parameters such as apparent quantum yield ALPHA, photosynthetic capacity AMAX, convexity of light response THETA, gross ecological light-use efficiency LUE, daytime ecosystem respiration rate RDAY, and nighttime ecosystem respiration rate RNIGHT. These ecosystem-scale parameters are highly demanded by the modeling community and open opportunities for comparison with the rich data of leaf-level estimates of corresponding parameters available from physiological studies of previous decades. Based on the data for 70+ site-years of flux tower measurements at the non-forest sites of the Ameriflux network and the non-affiliated sites, we present results of the comparative analysis and multi-site synthesis of the magnitudes, uncertainties, patterns of seasonal and yearly dynamics, and spatiotemporal distribution of these parameters for grasslands and croplands of the conterminous United States (CONUS). Combining this site-level parameter data set with the rich spatiotemporal data sets of a remotely sensed vegetation index, weather and climate conditions, and site biophysical and geophysical features (phenology, photosynthetically active radiation, and soil water holding capacity) using methods of multivariate analysis (e.g., Cubist regression tree) offers new opportunities for predictive modeling and scaling-up of ecosystem-scale parameters of carbon cycling in grassland and agricultural ecosystems of CONUS (Zhang et al. 2011; Gu et al. 2012). REFERENCES Gilmanov TG, Baker JM, Bernacchi CJ, Billesbach DP, Burba GG, et al. (2013a). Productivity and CO2 exchange of the leguminous crops: Estimates from flux tower measurements. Agronomy J (submitted). Gilmanov TG, Wylie BK, Tieszen LL, Meyers TP, Baron VS, et al. (2013b). CO2 uptake and ecophysiological parameters of the grain crops of midcontinent North America: Estimates from flux tower measurements. Agric Ecosyst Environm 164: 162-175 Gu Y, Howard DM, Wylie BK, and Zhang L (2012). Mapping carbon flux uncertainty and selecting optimal locations for future flux towers in the Great Plains: Landscape Ecology, 27: 319-326. Thornley JHM., Johnson IR (2000). Plant and crop modelling. A mathematical approach to plant and crop physiology. The Blackburn Press, Caldwell, New Jersey. Zhang L, Wylie BK, Ji L, Gilmanov TG, Tieszen LL, Howard DM (2011). Upscaling carbon fluxes over the Great Plains grasslands: Sinks and sources. J Geophys Res G: Biogeosciences 116: G00J3

From Fractals to Fractional Vector Calculus: Measurement in the Correct Metric

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheatcraft, S. W.; Meerschaert, M. M.; Mortensen, J.

2005-12-01

Traditional (stationary) stochastic theories have been fairly successful in reproducing transport behavior at relatively homogeneous field sites such as the Borden and Cape Code sites. However, the highly heterogeneous MADE site has produced tracer data that can not be adequately explained with traditional stochastic theories. In recent years, considerable attention has been focused on developing more sophisticated theories that can predict or reproduce the behavior of complex sites such as the MADE site. People began to realize that the model for geologic complexity may in many cases be very different than the model required for stochastic theory. Fractal approaches were useful in conceptualizing scale-invariant heterogeneity by demonstrating that scale dependant transport was just an artifact of our measurement system. Fractal media have dimensions larger than the dimension that measurement is taking place in, thus assuring the scale-dependence of parameters such as dispersivity. What was needed was a rigorous way to develop a theory that was consistent with the fractal dimension of the heterogeneity. The fractional advection-dispersion equation (FADE) was developed with this idea in mind. The second derivative in the dispersion term of the advection-dispersion equation is replaced with a fractional derivative. The order of differentiation, α, is fractional. Values of α in the range: 1 < α < 2 produce super-Fickian dispersion; in essence, the dispersion scaling is controlled by the value of α. When α = 2, the traditional advection-dispersion equation is recovered. The 1-D version of the FADE has been used successfully to back-predict tracer test behavior at several heterogeneous field sites, including the MADE site. It has been hypothesized that the order of differentiation in the FADE is equivalent to (or at least related to) the fractal dimension of the particle tracks (or geologic heterogeneity). With this way of thinking, one can think of the FADE as a governing equation written for the correct dimension, thus eliminating scale-dependent behavior. Before a generalized multi-dimensional form of the FADE can be developed, it has been necessary to develop a generalized fractional vector calculus. The authors have recently developed generalized canonical fractional forms of the gradient, divergence and curl. This fractional vector calculus will be useful in developing fractional forms of many governing equations in physics.

Comparative Modeling Studies of Boreal Water and Carbon Balance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coughlan, J.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

The coordination of the modeling and field efforts for an Intensive Field Campaign (IFC) may resemble the chicken and egg dilemma. This session's theme advocates that early and proactive involvement by modeling teams can produce a scientific and operational benefit for the IFC and Experiment. This talk will provide some examples and suggestions originating from the NASA funded IFC's of the FIFE First ISLSCP (International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project) Field Experiment, Oregon Transect Ecosystem Research (OTTER) and predominately Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) Experiments. In February 1994 and prior to the final selection of the BOREAS study sites, a group of funded BOREAS investigators agreed to run their models with data for five community types representing the proposed tower flux sites. All participating models were given identical initial values and boundary conditions and driven with identical climate data. The objectives of the intercomparison exercise were: 1) compare simulation results of participating terrestrial, hydrological, and atmospheric models over selected time frames; 2) learn about model behavior and sensitivity to estimated boreal site and vegetation definitions; 3) prioritize BOREAS field data collection efforts supporting modeling studies; 4) identify individual model deficiencies as early as possible. Out of these objectives evolved some important coordination and science issues for the BOREAS Experiment that can be generalized to IFCs and long term archiving of the data. Some problems are acceptable because they are endemic to maintaining fair and open competition prior to the peer review process. Others are logistical and addressable through application of planning, management, and information sciences. This investigator has identified one source of measurement and model incompatibility that is manifest in the IFC scaling approach. Although intuitively obvious, scaling problems are already more formally defined in the Geography literature. An example of the scaling problem will be demonstrated with Vegetation/Ecosystem Mapping and Analysis Project (VEMAP) and OTTER data.

An integrated modeling approach for estimating the water quality benefits of conservation practices at the river basin scale.

PubMed

Santhi, C; Kannan, N; White, M; Di Luzio, M; Arnold, J G; Wang, X; Williams, J R

2014-01-01

The USDA initiated the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practices at regional and national scales. For this assessment, a sampling and modeling approach is used. This paper provides a technical overview of the modeling approach used in CEAP cropland assessment to estimate the off-site water quality benefits of conservation practices using the Ohio River Basin (ORB) as an example. The modeling approach uses a farm-scale model, Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX), and a watershed scale model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool [SWAT]) and databases in the Hydrologic Unit Modeling for the United States system. Databases of land use, soils, land use management, topography, weather, point sources, and atmospheric depositions were developed to derive model inputs. APEX simulates the cultivated cropland, Conserve Reserve Program land, and the practices implemented on them, whereas SWAT simulates the noncultivated land (e.g., pasture, range, urban, and forest) and point sources. Simulation results from APEX are input into SWAT. SWAT routes all sources, including APEX's, to the basin outlet through each eight-digit watershed. Each basin is calibrated for stream flow, sediment, and nutrient loads at multiple gaging sites and turned in for simulating the effects of conservation practice scenarios on water quality. Results indicate that sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads delivered to the Mississippi River from ORB could be reduced by 16, 15, and 23%, respectively, due to current conservation practices. Modeling tools are useful to provide science-based information for assessing existing conservation programs, developing future programs, and developing insights on load reductions necessary for hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Associations of the Van Dyke's salamander (Plethodon vandykei) with geomorphic conditions in headwall seeps of the Cascade Range, Washington State.

Treesearch

A.P. McIntyre; R.A. Schmitz; C.M. Crisafulli

2006-01-01

We explored the association between Van Dyke's salamander (Plethodon vandykei) and hydrologic condition, geomorphology, and vegetation structure in headwall seeps in the Cascade Range of Washington State. We modeled occurrence of P. vandykei at three site scales: between seeps, within seeps, and between microhabitat sites...

Measured and modeled dry deposition velocities over the ESCOMPTE area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michou, M.; Laville, P.; Serça, D.; Fotiadi, A.; Bouchou, P.; Peuch, V.-H.

2005-03-01

Measurements of the dry deposition velocity of ozone have been made by the eddy correlation method during ESCOMPTE (Etude sur Site pour COntraindre les Modèles de Pollution atmosphérique et de Transport d'Emissions). The strong local variability of natural ecosystems was sampled over several weeks in May, June and July 2001 for four sites with varying surface characteristics. The sites included a maize field, a Mediterranean forest, a Mediterranean shrub-land, and an almost bare soil. Measurements of nitrogen oxide deposition fluxes by the relaxed eddy correlation method have also been carried out at the same bare soil site. An evaluation of the deposition velocities computed by the surface module of the multi-scale Chemistry and Transport Model MOCAGE is presented. This module relies on a resistance approach, with a detailed treatment of the stomatal contribution to the surface resistance. Simulations at the finest model horizontal resolution (around 10 km) are compared to observations. If the seasonal variations are in agreement with the literature, comparisons between raw model outputs and observations, at the different measurement sites and for the specific observing periods, are contrasted. As the simulated meteorology at the scale of 10 km nicely captures the observed situations, the default set of surface characteristics (averaged at the resolution of a grid cell) appears to be one of the main reasons for the discrepancies found with observations. For each case, sensitivity studies have been performed in order to see the impact of adjusting the surface characteristics to the observed ones, when available. Generally, a correct agreement with the observations of deposition velocities is obtained. This advocates for a sub-grid scale representation of surface characteristics for the simulation of dry deposition velocities over such a complex area. Two other aspects appear in the discussion. Firstly, the strong influence of the soil water content to the plant response, specifically in conditions of stress, is confirmed. Second, we point out the difficulty in interpreting measurements of nitrogen oxide deposition velocities: a synergetic approach combining measurements and modeling is practical.

Scale-dependent factors affecting North American river otter distribution in the midwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jeffress, Mackenzie R.; Paukert, C.P.; Whittier, Joanna B.; Sandercock, B.K.; Gipson, P.S.

2011-01-01

The North American river otter (Lontra canadensis) is recovering from near extirpation throughout much of its range. Although reintroductions, trapping regulations and habitat improvements have led to the reestablishment of river otters in the Midwest, little is known about how their distribution is influenced by local- and landscape-scale habitat. We conducted river otter sign surveys from Jan. to Apr. in 2008 and 2009 in eastern Kansas to assess how local- and landscape-scale habitat factors affect river otter occupancy. We surveyed three to nine 400-m stretches of stream and reservoir shorelines for 110 sites and measured local-scale variables (e.g., stream order, land cover types) within a 100 m buffer of the survey site and landscape-scale variables (e.g., road density, land cover types) for Hydrological Unit Code 14 watersheds. We then used occupancy models that account for the probability of detection to estimate occupancy as a function of these covariates using Program PRESENCE. The best-fitting model indicated river otter occupancy increased with the proportion of woodland cover and decreased with the proportion of cropland and grassland cover at the local scale. Occupancy also increased with decreased shoreline diversity, waterbody density and stream density at the landscape scale. Occupancy was not affected by land cover or human disturbance at the landscape scale. Understanding the factors and scale important to river otter occurrence will be useful in identifying areas for management and continued restoration. ?? 2011, American Midland Naturalist.

Estimating the effects of land use at different scales on high ecological status in Irish rivers.

PubMed

Roberts, William M; Fealy, Reamonn M; Doody, Donnacha G; Jordan, Phil; Daly, Karen

2016-12-01

High ecological status at river sites is an indicator of minimal disturbance from anthropogenic activities and the presence of ecologically important species and communities. However, a lack of clarity on what factors cause sites to lose high ecological status is limiting the ability to maintain the quality of these sites. Examination of ecological status records at 508 high status river sites throughout the Republic of Ireland revealed that 337 had fallen below high status at some point between 2001 and 2012 due to changes in invertebrate communities. A geographical information system was used to characterise land use and environmental variables in the catchment, riparian and reach areas upstream of the sites. The relationships between these variables at the three spatial scales and whether or not river sites had maintained high ecological status were then estimated by multiple logistic regression and propensity modelling. The results indicated that grassland at either catchment or riparian scales had a greater negative impact on high ecological status than at the reach scale. This effect appeared to be strongest for upland, steeply sloping rivers that are subject to high rainfall, possibly due to the presence of sensitive biota and/or a greater potential for erosion. These results highlighted the need for better management of grassland upstream of the high status sites, with a focus on river alterations and critical source areas of nutrients, sediments and pesticides that are hydrologically connected to the river. Sustainable management practices and land use planning in those areas will need to be considered carefully if the aim of maintaining high ecological status at river sites is to be achieved. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved simulation of group averaged CO2 surface concentrations using GEOS-Chem and fluxes from VEGAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z. H.; Zhu, J.; Zeng, N.

2013-01-01

CO2 measurements have been combined with simulated CO2 distributions from a transport model in order to produce the optimal estimates of CO2 surface fluxes in inverse modeling. However one persistent problem in using model-observation comparisons for this goal relates to the issue of compatibility. Observations at a single site reflect all underlying processes of various scales that usually cannot be fully resolved by model simulations at the grid points nearest the site due to lack of spatial or temporal resolution or missing processes in models. In this article we group site observations of multiple stations according to atmospheric mixing regimes and surface characteristics. The group averaged values of CO2 concentration from model simulations and observations are used to evaluate the regional model results. Using the group averaged measurements of CO2 reduces the noise of individual stations. The difference of group averaged values between observation and modeled results reflects the uncertainties of the large scale flux in the region where the grouped stations are. We compared the group averaged values between model results with two biospheric fluxes from the model Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) and VEgetation-Global-Atmosphere-Soil (VEGAS) and observations to evaluate the regional model results. Results show that the modeling group averaged values of CO2 concentrations in all regions with fluxes from VEGAS have significant improvements for most regions. There is still large difference between two model results and observations for grouped average values in North Atlantic, Indian Ocean, and South Pacific Tropics. This implies possible large uncertainties in the fluxes there.

Meteorological Predictions in Support of the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent and Landing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothchild, A.; Rafkin, S. C.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.

2010-12-01

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry, descent, and landing (EDL) system employs a standard parachute strategy followed by a new sky crane concept where the rover is lowered to the ground via a tether from a hovering entry vehicle. As with previous missions, EDL system performance is sensitive to atmospheric conditions. While some observations characterizing the mean, large-scale atmospheric temperature and density data are available, there is effectively no information on the atmospheric conditions and variability at the scale that directly affects the spacecraft. In order to evaluate EDL system performance and to assess landing hazards and risk, it is necessary to simulate the atmosphere with a model that provides data at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Models also permit the study of the impact of the highly variable atmospheric dust loading on temperature, density and winds. There are four potential MSL landing sites: Mawrth Valle (22.3 N, 16.5W) , Gale Crater (5.4S, 137.7E), Holden Crater (26.1S, 34W), and Eberswalde Crater (24S, 33W). The final selection of the landing site will balance potential science return against landing and operational risk. Atmospheric modeling studies conducted with the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) is an integral part of the selection process. At each of the landing sites, a variety of simulations are conducted. The first type of simulations provide baseline predictions under nominal atmospheric dust loading conditions within the landing site window of ~Ls 150-170. The second type of simulation explores situations with moderate and high global atmospheric dust loading. The final type of simulation investigates the impact of local dust disturbances at the landing site. Mean and perturbation fields from each type of simulation at each of the potential landing sites are presented in comparison with the engineering performance limitations for the MSL EDL system. Within the lowest scale height, winds are strongly influenced by the local and regional topography and are highly variable in both space and time. Convective activity in the afternoon produces deep vertical circulations anchored primarily to topography. Aloft, winds become increasingly dominated by the large-scale circulation, but with gravity wave perturbations forced by both topography and boundary layer convective activity. The mean density field is tied directly to the level of dust loading; higher dust results in decreased densities and overall warming of the atmospheric column. In local and regional dust storm scenarios, winds are found to be enhanced, particularly in regions of active dust lifting. Local reductions in density are also pronounced. At present, the predicted mean and perturbation fields from all the simulations appear to fall within the engineering requirements, but not always comfortably so. This is in contrast to proposed landing sites for the Mars Exploration Rover mission, where the atmospheric environment presented unacceptable risk. Ongoing work is underway to confirm that atmospheric conditions will permit safe EDL operations with a tolerable level of risk.

A nested observation and model approach to non linear groundwater surface water interactions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, Y.; Rozemeijer, J. C.; de Rooij, G. H.

2009-04-01

Surface water quality measurements in The Netherlands are scattered in time and space. Therefore, water quality status and its variations and trends are difficult to determine. In order to reach the water quality goals according to the European Water Framework Directive, we need to improve our understanding of the dynamics of surface water quality and the processes that affect it. In heavily drained lowland catchment groundwater influences the discharge towards the surface water network in many complex ways. Especially a strong seasonal contracting and expanding system of discharging ditches and streams affects discharge and solute transport. At a tube drained field site the tube drain flux and the combined flux of all other flow routes toward a stretch of 45 m of surface water have been measured for a year. Also the groundwater levels at various locations in the field and the discharge at two nested catchment scales have been monitored. The unique reaction of individual flow routes on rainfall events at the field site allowed us to separate the discharge at a 4 ha catchment and at a 6 km2 into flow route contributions. The results of this nested experimental setup combined with the results of a distributed hydrological model has lead to the formulation of a process model approach that focuses on the spatial variability of discharge generation driven by temporal and spatial variations in groundwater levels. The main idea of this approach is that discharge is not generated by catchment average storages or groundwater heads, but is mainly generated by points scale extremes i.e. extreme low permeability, extreme high groundwater heads or extreme low surface elevations, all leading to catchment discharge. We focused on describing the spatial extremes in point scale storages and this led to a simple and measurable expression that governs the non-linear groundwater surface water interaction. We will present the analysis of the field site data to demonstrate the potential of nested-scale, high frequency observations. The distributed hydrological model results will be used to show transient catchment scale relations between groundwater levels and discharges. These analyses lead to a simple expression that can describe catchment scale groundwater surface water interactions.

Temporal scaling of groundwater level fluctuations near a stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, K.E.; Zhang, Y.-K.

2012-01-01

Temporal scaling in stream discharge and hydraulic heads in riparian wells was evaluated to determine the feasibility of using spectral analysis to identify potential surface and groundwater interaction. In floodplains where groundwater levels respond rapidly to precipitation recharge, potential interaction is established if the hydraulic head (h) spectrum of riparian groundwater has a power spectral density similar to stream discharge (Q), exhibiting a characteristic breakpoint between high and low frequencies. At a field site in Walnut Creek watershed in central Iowa, spectral analysis of h in wells located 1 m from the channel edge showed a breakpoint in scaling very similar to the spectrum of Q (~20 h), whereas h in wells located 20 and 40 m from the channel showed temporal scaling from 1 to 10,000 h without a well-defined breakpoint. The spectral exponent (??) in the riparian zone decreased systematically from the channel into the floodplain as groundwater levels were increasingly dominated by white noise groundwater recharge. The scaling pattern of hydraulic head was not affected by land cover type, although the number of analyses was limited and site conditions were variable among sites. Spectral analysis would not replace quantitative tracer or modeling studies, but the method may provide a simple means of confirming potential interaction at some sites. ?? 2011, The Author(s). Ground Water ?? 2011, National Ground Water Association.

Temporal scaling of groundwater level fluctuations near a stream.

PubMed

Schilling, Keith E; Zhang, You-Kuan

2012-01-01

Temporal scaling in stream discharge and hydraulic heads in riparian wells was evaluated to determine the feasibility of using spectral analysis to identify potential surface and groundwater interaction. In floodplains where groundwater levels respond rapidly to precipitation recharge, potential interaction is established if the hydraulic head (h) spectrum of riparian groundwater has a power spectral density similar to stream discharge (Q), exhibiting a characteristic breakpoint between high and low frequencies. At a field site in Walnut Creek watershed in central Iowa, spectral analysis of h in wells located 1 m from the channel edge showed a breakpoint in scaling very similar to the spectrum of Q (∼20 h), whereas h in wells located 20 and 40 m from the channel showed temporal scaling from 1 to 10,000 h without a well-defined breakpoint. The spectral exponent (β) in the riparian zone decreased systematically from the channel into the floodplain as groundwater levels were increasingly dominated by white noise groundwater recharge. The scaling pattern of hydraulic head was not affected by land cover type, although the number of analyses was limited and site conditions were variable among sites. Spectral analysis would not replace quantitative tracer or modeling studies, but the method may provide a simple means of confirming potential interaction at some sites. © 2011, The Author(s). Ground Water © 2011, National Ground Water Association.

Model-based performance and energy analyses of reverse osmosis to reuse wastewater in a PVC production site.

PubMed

Hu, Kang; Fiedler, Thorsten; Blanco, Laura; Geissen, Sven-Uwe; Zander, Simon; Prieto, David; Blanco, Angeles; Negro, Carlos; Swinnen, Nathalie

2017-11-10

A pilot-scale reverse osmosis (RO) followed behind a membrane bioreactor (MBR) was developed for the desalination to reuse wastewater in a PVC production site. The solution-diffusion-film model (SDFM) based on the solution-diffusion model (SDM) and the film theory was proposed to describe rejections of electrolyte mixtures in the MBR effluent which consists of dominant ions (Na + and Cl - ) and several trace ions (Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , K + and SO 4 2- ). The universal global optimisation method was used to estimate the ion permeability coefficients (B) and mass transfer coefficients (K) in SDFM. Then, the membrane performance was evaluated based on the estimated parameters which demonstrated that the theoretical simulations were in line with the experimental results for the dominant ions. Moreover, an energy analysis model with the consideration of limitation imposed by the thermodynamic restriction was proposed to analyse the specific energy consumption of the pilot-scale RO system in various scenarios.

Between-Site Differences in the Scale of Dispersal and Gene Flow in Red Oak

PubMed Central

Moran, Emily V.; Clark, James S.

2012-01-01

Background Nut-bearing trees, including oaks (Quercus spp.), are considered to be highly dispersal limited, leading to concerns about their ability to colonize new sites or migrate in response to climate change. However, estimating seed dispersal is challenging in species that are secondarily dispersed by animals, and differences in disperser abundance or behavior could lead to large spatio-temporal variation in dispersal ability. Parentage and dispersal analyses combining genetic and ecological data provide accurate estimates of current dispersal, while spatial genetic structure (SGS) can shed light on past patterns of dispersal and establishment. Methodology and Principal Findings In this study, we estimate seed and pollen dispersal and parentage for two mixed-species red oak populations using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We compare these results to those of a genetic ML parentage model. We also test whether observed patterns of SGS in three size cohorts are consistent with known site history and current dispersal patterns. We find that, while pollen dispersal is extensive at both sites, the scale of seed dispersal differs substantially. Parentage results differ between models due to additional data included in Bayesian model and differing genotyping error assumptions, but both indicate between-site dispersal differences. Patterns of SGS in large adults, small adults, and seedlings are consistent with known site history (farmed vs. selectively harvested), and with long-term differences in seed dispersal. This difference is consistent with predator/disperser satiation due to higher acorn production at the low-dispersal site. While this site-to-site variation results in substantial differences in asymptotic spread rates, dispersal for both sites is substantially lower than required to track latitudinal temperature shifts. Conclusions Animal-dispersed trees can exhibit considerable spatial variation in seed dispersal, although patterns may be surprisingly constant over time. However, even under favorable conditions, migration in heavy-seeded species is likely to lag contemporary climate change. PMID:22563504

Methane emissions from floodplains in the Amazon Basin: towards a process-based model for global applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ringeval, B.; Houweling, S.; van Bodegom, P. M.; Spahni, R.; van Beek, R.; Joos, F.; Röckmann, T.

2013-10-01

Tropical wetlands are estimated to represent about 50% of the natural wetland emissions and explain a large fraction of the observed CH4 variability on time scales ranging from glacial-interglacial cycles to the currently observed year-to-year variability. Despite their importance, however, tropical wetlands are poorly represented in global models aiming to predict global CH4 emissions. This study documents the first regional-scale, process-based model of CH4 emissions from tropical floodplains. The LPX-Bern Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX hereafter) was modified to represent floodplain hydrology, vegetation and associated CH4 emissions. The extent of tropical floodplains was prescribed using output from the spatially-explicit hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB. We introduced new Plant Functional Types (PFTs) that explicitly represent floodplain vegetation. The PFT parameterizations were evaluated against available remote sensing datasets (GLC2000 land cover and MODIS Net Primary Productivity). Simulated CH4 flux densities were evaluated against field observations and regional flux inventories. Simulated CH4 emissions at Amazon Basin scale were compared to model simulations performed in the WETCHIMP intercomparison project. We found that LPX simulated CH4 flux densities are in reasonable agreement with observations at the field scale but with a~tendency to overestimate the flux observed at specific sites. In addition, the model did not reproduce between-site variations or between-year variations within a site. Unfortunately, site informations are too limited to attest or disprove some model features. At the Amazon Basin scale, our results underline the large uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions. In particular, uncertainties in floodplain extent (i.e., difference between GLC2000 and PCR-GLOBWB output) modulate the simulated emissions by a factor of about 2. Our best estimates, using PCR-GLOBWB in combination with GLC2000, lead to simulated Amazon-integrated emissions of 44.4 ± 4.8 Tg yr-1. Additionally, the LPX emissions are highly sensitive to vegetation distribution. Two simulations with the same mean PFT cover, but different spatial distributions of grasslands within the basin modulated emissions by about 20%. Correcting the LPX simulated NPP using MODIS reduces the Amazon emissions by 11.3%. Finally, due to an intrinsic limitation of LPX to account for seasonality in floodplain extent, the model failed to reproduce the seasonality in CH4 emissions. The Inter Annual Variability (IAV) of the emissions increases by 90% if the IAV in floodplain extent is account for, but still remains lower than in most of WETCHIMP models. While our model includes more mechanisms specific to tropical floodplains, we were unable to reduce the uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions of the Amazon Basin. Our results stress the need for more research to constrain floodplain CH4 emissions and their temporal variability.

Upscaling of nanoparticle transport in porous media under unfavorable conditions: Pore scale to Darcy scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seetha, N.; Raoof, Amir; Mohan Kumar, M. S.; Majid Hassanizadeh, S.

2017-05-01

Transport and deposition of nanoparticles in porous media is a multi-scale problem governed by several pore-scale processes, and hence, it is critical to link the processes at pore scale to the Darcy-scale behavior. In this study, using pore network modeling, we develop correlation equations for deposition rate coefficients for nanoparticle transport under unfavorable conditions at the Darcy scale based on pore-scale mechanisms. The upscaling tool is a multi-directional pore-network model consisting of an interconnected network of pores with variable connectivities. Correlation equations describing the pore-averaged deposition rate coefficients under unfavorable conditions in a cylindrical pore, developed in our earlier studies, are employed for each pore element. Pore-network simulations are performed for a wide range of parameter values to obtain the breakthrough curves of nanoparticle concentration. The latter is fitted with macroscopic 1-D advection-dispersion equation with a two-site linear reversible deposition accounting for both equilibrium and kinetic sorption. This leads to the estimation of three Darcy-scale deposition coefficients: distribution coefficient, kinetic rate constant, and the fraction of equilibrium sites. The correlation equations for the Darcy-scale deposition coefficients, under unfavorable conditions, are provided as a function of measurable Darcy-scale parameters, including: porosity, mean pore throat radius, mean pore water velocity, nanoparticle radius, ionic strength, dielectric constant, viscosity, temperature, and surface potentials of the particle and grain surfaces. The correlation equations are found to be consistent with the available experimental results, and in qualitative agreement with Colloid Filtration Theory for all parameters, except for the mean pore water velocity and nanoparticle radius.

Numerical Modeling of Artificial Recharge: Determining Spatial/Temporal Sampling Resolution to Quantify Infiltration Rates and Effective Hydraulic Conductivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glose, T. J.; Hausner, M. B.; Lowry, C.

2016-12-01

The accurate, fine scale quantification of groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions over large expanses in hydrologic systems is a fundamental need in order to accurately characterize critical zones of biogeochemical transformation and fluxes, as well as to provide insight into near-surface geologic heterogeneity. Paired fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) is a tool that is capable of synoptically sampling hydrologic systems, allowing GW-SW interactions to be examined at a fine scale over large distances. Within managed aquifer recharge (MAR) sites, differential recharge dynamics controlled by bed clogging and subsurface heterogeneity dictate the effectiveness of these sites at infiltrating water. Numerical modeling indicates that the use of paired FO-DTS in an MAR site can provide accurate quantification of flux at the GW-SW interface, as well as provide insight to the areal extent of geologic heterogeneity in the subsurface. However, the lateral and vertical separation of the fiber-optic cables is of vital importance. Here we present a 2-D, fully coupled groundwater flow and heat transport model with prescribed heterogeneity. Following a forward modeling approach, realizations simulating varying fiber-optic cable positioning, differential bed clogging, and hydraulic conductivity variability were analyzed over a suite of scenarios. The results from the model were then used as observations to calculate groundwater recharge rates and calibration targets for an inverse model to estimate subsurface heterogeneity.

Tree-, stand- and site-specific controls on landscape-scale patterns of transpiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kathrin Hassler, Sibylle; Weiler, Markus; Blume, Theresa

2018-01-01

Transpiration is a key process in the hydrological cycle, and a sound understanding and quantification of transpiration and its spatial variability is essential for management decisions as well as for improving the parameterisation and evaluation of hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models. For individual trees, transpiration is commonly estimated by measuring sap flow. Besides evaporative demand and water availability, tree-specific characteristics such as species, size or social status control sap flow amounts of individual trees. Within forest stands, properties such as species composition, basal area or stand density additionally affect sap flow, for example via competition mechanisms. Finally, sap flow patterns might also be influenced by landscape-scale characteristics such as geology and soils, slope position or aspect because they affect water and energy availability; however, little is known about the dynamic interplay of these controls.We studied the relative importance of various tree-, stand- and site-specific characteristics with multiple linear regression models to explain the variability of sap velocity measurements in 61 beech and oak trees, located at 24 sites across a 290 km2 catchment in Luxembourg. For each of 132 consecutive days of the growing season of 2014 we modelled the daily sap velocity and derived sap flow patterns of these 61 trees, and we determined the importance of the different controls.Results indicate that a combination of mainly tree- and site-specific factors controls sap velocity patterns in the landscape, namely tree species, tree diameter, geology and aspect. For sap flow we included only the stand- and site-specific predictors in the models to ensure variable independence. Of those, geology and aspect were most important. Compared to these predictors, spatial variability of atmospheric demand and soil moisture explains only a small fraction of the variability in the daily datasets. However, the temporal dynamics of the explanatory power of the tree-specific characteristics, especially species, are correlated to the temporal dynamics of potential evaporation. We conclude that transpiration estimates on the landscape scale would benefit from not only consideration of hydro-meteorological drivers, but also tree, stand and site characteristics in order to improve the spatial and temporal representation of transpiration for hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models.

Automating an integrated spatial data-mining model for landfill site selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abujayyab, Sohaib K. M.; Ahamad, Mohd Sanusi S.; Yahya, Ahmad Shukri; Ahmad, Siti Zubaidah; Aziz, Hamidi Abdul

2017-10-01

An integrated programming environment represents a robust approach to building a valid model for landfill site selection. One of the main challenges in the integrated model is the complicated processing and modelling due to the programming stages and several limitations. An automation process helps avoid the limitations and improve the interoperability between integrated programming environments. This work targets the automation of a spatial data-mining model for landfill site selection by integrating between spatial programming environment (Python-ArcGIS) and non-spatial environment (MATLAB). The model was constructed using neural networks and is divided into nine stages distributed between Matlab and Python-ArcGIS. A case study was taken from the north part of Peninsular Malaysia. 22 criteria were selected to utilise as input data and to build the training and testing datasets. The outcomes show a high-performance accuracy percentage of 98.2% in the testing dataset using 10-fold cross validation. The automated spatial data mining model provides a solid platform for decision makers to performing landfill site selection and planning operations on a regional scale.

CO 2 leakage impacts on shallow groundwater. Field-scale reactive-transport simulations informed by observations at a natural analog site

DOE PAGES

Keating, Elizabeth H.; Hakala, J. Alexandra; Viswanathan, Hari; ...

2013-03-01

It is challenging to predict the degree to which shallow groundwater might be affected by leaks from a CO 2 sequestration reservoir, particularly over long time scales and large spatial scales. In this study observations at a CO 2 enriched shallow aquifer natural analog were used to develop a predictive model which is then used to simulate leakage scenarios. This natural analog provides the opportunity to make direct field observations of groundwater chemistry in the presence of elevated CO 2, to collect aquifer samples and expose them to CO 2 under controlled conditions in the laboratory, and to test themore » ability of multiphase reactive transport models to reproduce measured geochemical trends at the field-scale. The field observations suggest that brackish water entrained with the upwelling CO 2 are a more significant source of trace metals than in situ mobilization of metals due to exposure to CO 2. The study focuses on a single trace metal of concern at this site: U. Experimental results indicate that cation exchange/adsorption and dissolution/precipitation of calcite containing trace amounts of U are important reactions controlling U in groundwater at this site, and that the amount of U associated with calcite is fairly well constrained. Simulations incorporating these results into a 3-D multi-phase reactive transport model are able to reproduce the measured ranges and trends between pH, pCO 2, Ca, total C, U and Cl -at the field site. Although the true fluxes at the natural analog site are unknown, the cumulative CO 2 flux inferred from these simulations are approximately equivalent to 37.8E-3 MT, approximately corresponding to a .001% leak rate for injection at a large (750 MW) power plant. The leakage scenario simulations suggest that if the leak only persists for a short time the volume of aquifer contaminated by CO 2-induced mobilization of U will be relatively small, yet persistent over 100 a.« less

Scaling Laws of Discrete-Fracture-Network Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philippe, D.; Olivier, B.; Caroline, D.; Jean-Raynald, D.

2006-12-01

The statistical description of fracture networks through scale still remains a concern for geologists, considering the complexity of fracture networks. A challenging task of the last 20-years studies has been to find a solid and rectifiable rationale to the trivial observation that fractures exist everywhere and at all sizes. The emergence of fractal models and power-law distributions quantifies this fact, and postulates in some ways that small-scale fractures are genetically linked to their larger-scale relatives. But the validation of these scaling concepts still remains an issue considering the unreachable amount of information that would be necessary with regards to the complexity of natural fracture networks. Beyond the theoretical interest, a scaling law is a basic and necessary ingredient of Discrete-Fracture-Network models (DFN) that are used for many environmental and industrial applications (groundwater resources, mining industry, assessment of the safety of deep waste disposal sites, ..). Indeed, such a function is necessary to assemble scattered data, taken at different scales, into a unified scaling model, and to interpolate fracture densities between observations. In this study, we discuss some important issues related to scaling laws of DFN: - We first describe a complete theoretical and mathematical framework that takes account of both the fracture- size distribution and the fracture clustering through scales (fractal dimension). - We review the scaling laws that have been obtained, and we discuss the ability of fracture datasets to really constrain the parameters of the DFN model. - And finally we discuss the limits of scaling models.

Determination of antennae patterns and radar reflection characteristics of aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bothe, H.; MacDonald, D.; Pool, A.

1986-05-01

The different types of aircraft antennas, their radiation characteristics and their preferred siting on the airframe are described. Emphasis is placed on the various methods for determining aircraft antenna radiation patterns (ARP) and advantages, disadvantages and limitations of each method are indicated. Mathematical modelling, model measurements and in-flight measurements in conjunction with the applied flight test techniques are included. Examples of practical results are given. Methods of determining aircraft radar characteristics are also described, indicating advantages, disadvantages and limitations of each method. Relevant fundamentals of radar theory are included only as necessary to appreciation of the real meaning of radar cross section (RCS) and angular glint. The measuring methods included are dynamic full-scale, static full-scale, sub-scale optical, ultrasonic and radio modelling. References are made to RCS measuring facilities in the USA and Europe and the UK Radio Modelling Facility is used extensively to exemplify the sub scale technique.

Advanced Atmospheric Modeling for Emergency Response.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fast, Jerome D.; O'Steen, B. Lance; Addis, Robert P.

1995-03-01

Atmospheric transport and diffusion models are an important part of emergency response systems for industrial facilities that have the potential to release significant quantities of toxic or radioactive material into the atmosphere. An advanced atmospheric transport and diffusion modeling system for emergency response and environmental applications, based upon a three-dimensional mesoscale model, has been developed for the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site so that complex, time-dependent flow fields not explicitly measured can be routinely simulated. To overcome some of the current computational demands of mesoscale models, two operational procedures for the advanced atmospheric transport and diffusion modeling system are described including 1) a semiprognostic calculation to produce high-resolution wind fields for local pollutant transport in the vicinity of the Savannah River Site and 2) a fully prognostic calculation to produce a regional wind field encompassing the southeastern United States for larger-scale pollutant problems. Local and regional observations and large-scale model output are used by the mesoscale model for the initial conditions, lateral boundary conditions, and four-dimensional data assimilation procedure. This paper describes the current status of the modeling system and presents two case studies demonstrating the capabilities of both modes of operation. While the results from the case studies shown in this paper are preliminary and certainly not definitive, they do suggest that the mesoscale model has the potential for improving the prognostic capabilities of atmospheric modeling for emergency response at the Savannah River Site. Long-term model evaluation will be required to determine under what conditions significant forecast errors exist.

A photosynthesis-based two-leaf canopy stomatal conductance model for meteorology and air quality modeling with WRF/CMAQ PX LSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ran, Limei; Pleim, Jonathan; Song, Conghe; Band, Larry; Walker, John T.; Binkowski, Francis S.

2017-02-01

A coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model with single-layer sunlit and shaded leaf canopy scaling is implemented and evaluated in a diagnostic box model with the Pleim-Xiu land surface model (PX LSM) and ozone deposition model components taken directly from the meteorology and air quality modeling system - WRF/CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecast model and Community Multiscale Air Quality model). The photosynthesis-based model for PX LSM (PX PSN) is evaluated at a FLUXNET site for implementation against different parameterizations and the current PX LSM approach with a simple Jarvis function (PX Jarvis). Latent heat flux (LH) from PX PSN is further evaluated at five FLUXNET sites with different vegetation types and landscape characteristics. Simulated ozone deposition and flux from PX PSN are evaluated at one of the sites with ozone flux measurements. Overall, the PX PSN simulates LH as well as the PX Jarvis approach. The PX PSN, however, shows distinct advantages over the PX Jarvis approach for grassland that likely result from its treatment of C3 and C4 plants for CO2 assimilation. Simulations using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) rather than LAI measured at each site assess how the model would perform with grid averaged data used in WRF/CMAQ. MODIS LAI estimates degrade model performance at all sites but one site having exceptionally old and tall trees. Ozone deposition velocity and ozone flux along with LH are simulated especially well by the PX PSN compared to significant overestimation by the PX Jarvis for a grassland site.

Multi-scale occupancy estimation and modelling using multiple detection methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Bailey, Larissa L.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Talancy, Neil W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Gilbert, Andrew T.; Annand, Elizabeth M.; Husband, Thomas P.; Hines, James E.

2008-01-01

Occupancy estimation and modelling based on detection–nondetection data provide an effective way of exploring change in a species’ distribution across time and space in cases where the species is not always detected with certainty. Today, many monitoring programmes target multiple species, or life stages within a species, requiring the use of multiple detection methods. When multiple methods or devices are used at the same sample sites, animals can be detected by more than one method.We develop occupancy models for multiple detection methods that permit simultaneous use of data from all methods for inference about method-specific detection probabilities. Moreover, the approach permits estimation of occupancy at two spatial scales: the larger scale corresponds to species’ use of a sample unit, whereas the smaller scale corresponds to presence of the species at the local sample station or site.We apply the models to data collected on two different vertebrate species: striped skunks Mephitis mephitis and red salamanders Pseudotriton ruber. For striped skunks, large-scale occupancy estimates were consistent between two sampling seasons. Small-scale occupancy probabilities were slightly lower in the late winter/spring when skunks tend to conserve energy, and movements are limited to males in search of females for breeding. There was strong evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for skunks. As anticipated, large- and small-scale occupancy areas completely overlapped for red salamanders. The analyses provided weak evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for this species.Synthesis and applications. Increasingly, many studies are utilizing multiple detection methods at sampling locations. The modelling approach presented here makes efficient use of detections from multiple methods to estimate occupancy probabilities at two spatial scales and to compare detection probabilities associated with different detection methods. The models can be viewed as another variation of Pollock's robust design and may be applicable to a wide variety of scenarios where species occur in an area but are not always near the sampled locations. The estimation approach is likely to be especially useful in multispecies conservation programmes by providing efficient estimates using multiple detection devices and by providing device-specific detection probability estimates for use in survey design.

Geologic uncertainty in a regulatory environment: An example from the potential Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rautman, C. A.; Treadway, A. H.

1991-11-01

Regulatory geologists are concerned with predicting the performance of sites proposed for waste disposal or for remediation of existing pollution problems. Geologic modeling of these sites requires large-scale expansion of knowledge obtained from very limited sampling. This expansion induces considerable uncertainty into the geologic models of rock properties that are required for modeling the predicted performance of the site. One method for assessing this uncertainty is through nonparametric geostatistical simulation. Simulation can produce a series of equiprobable models of a rock property of interest. Each model honors measured values at sampled locations, and each can be constructed to emulate both the univariate histogram and the spatial covariance structure of the measured data. Computing a performance model for a number of geologic simulations allows evaluation of the effects of geologic uncertainty. A site may be judged acceptable if the number of failures to meet a particular performance criterion produced by these computations is sufficiently low. A site that produces too many failures may be either unacceptable or simply inadequately described. The simulation approach to addressing geologic uncertainty is being applied to the potential high-level nuclear waste repository site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. Preliminary geologic models of unsaturated permeability have been created that reproduce observed statistical properties reasonably well. A spread of unsaturated groundwater travel times has been computed that reflects the variability of those geologic models. Regions within the simulated models exhibiting the greatest variability among multiple runs are candidates for obtaining the greatest reduction in uncertainty through additional site characterization.

Counting on β-Diversity to Safeguard the Resilience of Estuaries

PubMed Central

de Juan, Silvia; Thrush, Simon F.; Hewitt, Judi E.

2013-01-01

Coastal ecosystems are often stressed by non-point source and cumulative effects that can lead to local-scale community homogenisation and a concomitant loss of large-scale ecological connectivity. Here we investigate the use of β-diversity as a measure of both community heterogeneity and ecological connectivity. To understand the consequences of different environmental scenarios on heterogeneity and connectivity, it is necessary to understand the scale at which different environmental factors affect β-diversity. We sampled macrofauna from intertidal sites in nine estuaries from New Zealand’s North Island that represented different degrees of stress derived from land-use. We used multiple regression models to identify relationships between β-diversity and local sediment variables, factors related to the estuarine and catchment hydrodynamics and morphology and land-based stressors. At local scales, we found higher β-diversity at sites with a relatively high total richness. At larger scales, β-diversity was positively related to γ-diversity, suggesting that a large regional species pool was linked with large-scale heterogeneity in these systems. Local environmental heterogeneity influenced β-diversity at both local and regional scales, although variables at the estuarine and catchment scales were both needed to explain large scale connectivity. The estuaries expected a priori to be the most stressed exhibited higher variance in community dissimilarity between sites and connectivity to the estuary species pool. This suggests that connectivity and heterogeneity metrics could be used to generate early warning signals of cumulative stress. PMID:23755252

An objective and reproducible landform and topography description approach based on digital terrain analysis used for soil profile site characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruber, Fabian E.; Baruck, Jasmin; Hastik, Richard; Geitner, Clemens

2015-04-01

All major soil description and classification systems, including the World Reference Base (WRB) and the German Soil description guidelines (KA5), require the characterization of landform and topography for soil profile sites. This is commonly done at more than one scale, for instance at macro-, meso- and micro scale. However, inherent when humans perform such a task, different surveyors will reach different conclusions due to their subjective perception of landscape structure, based on their individual mind-model of soil-landscape structure, emphasizing different aspects and scales of the landscape. In this study we apply a work-flow using the GRASS GIS extension module r.geomorphon to make use of high resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) to characterize the landform elements and topography of soil profile sites at different scales, and compare the results with a large number of soil profile site descriptions performed during the course of forestry surveys in South and North Tyrol (Italy and Austria, respectively). The r.geomorphon extension module for the open source geographic information system GRASS GIS applies a pattern recognition algorithm to delineate landform elements based on an input DEM. For each raster cell it computes and characterizes the visible neighborhood using line-of-sight calculations and then applies a lookup-table to classify the raster cell into one of ten landform elements (flat, peak, ridge, shoulder, slope, spur, hollow, footslope, valley and pit). The input parameter search radius (L) represents the maximum number of pixels for line-of-sight calculation, resulting in landforms larger than L to be split into landform components. The use of these visibility calculations makes this landform delineation approach suitable for comparison with the landform descriptions of soil surveyors, as their spatial perception of the landscape surrounding a soil profile site certainly influences their classification of the landform on which the profile is situated (aided by additional information such as topographic maps and aerial images). Variation of the L-value furthermore presents the opportunity to mimic the different scales at which surveyors describe soil profile locations. We first illustrate the use of r.geomorphon for site descriptions using exemplary artificial elevation profiles resembling typic catenas at different scales (L-values). We then compare the results of a landform element map computed with r.geomorphon to the relief descriptions in the test dataset. We link the surveyors' landform classification to the computed landform elements. Using a multi-scale approach we characterize raster cell locations in a way similar to the micro-, meso- and macroscale definitions used in soil survey, resulting in so-called geomorphon-signatures, such as "pit (meso-scale) located on a ridge (macro-scale)". We investigate which ranges of L-values best represent the different observation-scales as noted by soil surveyors and discuss the impacts of using a large dataset of profile location descriptions performed by different surveyors. Issues that arise are possible individual differences in landscape structure perception, but also questions regarding the accuracy of position and resulting topographic measurements in soil profile site description.

Strategies for modeling habitat relationships of uncommon species: An example using the Siskiyou Mountains salamander (Plethodon stormi).

Treesearch

Hartwell H. Welsh; Howard Stauffer; David R. Clayton; Lisa M. Ollivier

2007-01-01

We analyzed environmental relationships of the Siskiyou Mountains salamander, comparing attributes at the landscape, macro- and micro-environmental scales, and the three scales combined, to determine which attributes best predicted salamander presence. Separate analyses were conducted for sites on the north and south sides of the Siskiyou Mountains which basically...

Net nitrogen mineralization in natural ecosystems across the conterminous US

Treesearch

LeeAnna Y. Chapman; Steven G. McNulty; Ge Sun; Yang Zhang

2013-01-01

Nitrogen is the primary nutrient limiting ecosystem productivity over most of the US. Although soil nitrogen content is important, knowledge about its spatial extent at the continental scale is limited. The objective of this study was to estimate net nitrogen mineralization for the conterminous US (CONUS) using an empirical modeling approach by scaling up site level...

Irreversible opinion spreading on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Candia, Julián

2007-02-01

We study the dynamical and critical behavior of a model for irreversible opinion spreading on Barabási-Albert (BA) scale-free networks by performing extensive Monte Carlo simulations. The opinion spreading within an inhomogeneous society is investigated by means of the magnetic Eden model, a nonequilibrium kinetic model for the growth of binary mixtures in contact with a thermal bath. The deposition dynamics, which is studied as a function of the degree of the occupied sites, shows evidence for the leading role played by hubs in the growth process. Systems of finite size grow either ordered or disordered, depending on the temperature. By means of standard finite-size scaling procedures, the effective order-disorder phase transitions are found to persist in the thermodynamic limit. This critical behavior, however, is absent in related equilibrium spin systems such as the Ising model on BA scale-free networks, which in the thermodynamic limit only displays a ferromagnetic phase. The dependence of these results on the degree exponent is also discussed for the case of uncorrelated scale-free networks.

Building a sense of virtual community: the role of the features of social networking sites.

PubMed

Chen, Chi-Wen; Lin, Chiun-Sin

2014-07-01

In recent years, social networking sites have received increased attention because of the potential of this medium to transform business by building virtual communities. However, theoretical and empirical studies investigating how specific features of social networking sites contribute to building a sense of virtual community (SOVC)-an important dimension of a successful virtual community-are rare. Furthermore, SOVC scales have been developed, and research on this issue has been called for, but few studies have heeded this call. On the basis of prior literature, this study proposes that perceptions of the three most salient features of social networking sites-system quality (SQ), information quality (IQ), and social information exchange (SIE)-play a key role in fostering SOVC. In particular, SQ is proposed to increase IQ and SIE, and SIE is proposed to enhance IQ, both of which thereafter build SOVC. The research model was examined in the context of Facebook, one of the most popular social networking sites in the world. We adopted Blanchard's scales to measure SOVC. Data gathered using a Web-based questionnaire, and analyzed with partial least squares, were utilized to test the model. The results demonstrate that SIE, SQ, and IQ are the factors that form SOVC. The findings also suggest that SQ plays a fundamental role in supporting SIE and IQ in social networking sites. Implications for theory, practice, and future research directions are discussed.

Intelligent Facades for High Performance Green Buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dyson, Anna

Progress Towards Net-Zero and Net-Positive-Energy Commercial Buildings and Urban Districts Through Intelligent Building Envelope Strategies Previous research and development of intelligent facades systems has been limited in their contribution towards national goals for achieving on-site net zero buildings, because this R&D has failed to couple the many qualitative requirements of building envelopes such as the provision of daylighting, access to exterior views, satisfying aesthetic and cultural characteristics, with the quantitative metrics of energy harvesting, storage and redistribution. To achieve energy self-sufficiency from on-site solar resources, building envelopes can and must address this gamut of concerns simultaneously. With this project, wemore » have undertaken a high-performance building integrated combined-heat and power concentrating photovoltaic system with high temperature thermal capture, storage and transport towards multiple applications (BICPV/T). The critical contribution we are offering with the Integrated Concentrating Solar Façade (ICSF) is conceived to improve daylighting quality for improved health of occupants and mitigate solar heat gain while maximally capturing and transferring onsite solar energy. The ICSF accomplishes this multi-functionality by intercepting only the direct-normal component of solar energy (which is responsible for elevated cooling loads) thereby transforming a previously problematic source of energy into a high quality resource that can be applied to building demands such as heating, cooling, dehumidification, domestic hot water, and possible further augmentation of electrical generation through organic Rankine cycles. With the ICSF technology, our team is addressing the global challenge in transitioning commercial and residential building stock towards on-site clean energy self-sufficiency, by fully integrating innovative environmental control systems strategies within an intelligent and responsively dynamic building envelope. The advantage of being able to use the entire solar spectrum for active and passive benefits, along with the potential savings of avoiding transmission losses through direct current (DC) transfer to all buildings systems directly from the site of solar conversion, gives the system a compounded economic viability within the commercial and institutional building markets. With a team that spans multiple stakeholders across disparate industries, from CPV to A&E partners that are responsible for the design and development of District and Regional Scale Urban Development, this project demonstrates that integrating utility-scale high efficiency CPV installations with urban and suburban environments is both viable and desirable within the marketplace. The historical schism between utility scale CPV and BIPV has been one of differing scale and cultures. There is no technical reason why utility-scale CPV cannot be located within urban embedded district scale sites of energy harvesting. New models for leasing large areas of district scale roofs and facades are emerging, such that the model for utility scale energy harvesting can be reconciled to commercial and public scale building sites and campuses. This consortium is designed to unite utility scale solar harvesting into building applications for smart grid development.« less

Uranium plume persistence impacted by hydrologic and geochemical heterogeneity in the groundwater and river water interaction zone of Hanford site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Zachara, J. M.; Vermeul, V. R.; Freshley, M.; Hammond, G. E.

2015-12-01

The behavior of a persistent uranium plume in an extended groundwater- river water (GW-SW) interaction zone at the DOE Hanford site is dominantly controlled by river stage fluctuations in the adjacent Columbia River. The plume behavior is further complicated by substantial heterogeneity in physical and geochemical properties of the host aquifer sediments. Multi-scale field and laboratory experiments and reactive transport modeling were integrated to understand the complex plume behavior influenced by highly variable hydrologic and geochemical conditions in time and space. In this presentation we (1) describe multiple data sets from field-scale uranium adsorption and desorption experiments performed at our experimental well-field, (2) develop a reactive transport model that incorporates hydrologic and geochemical heterogeneities characterized from multi-scale and multi-type datasets and a surface complexation reaction network based on laboratory studies, and (3) compare the modeling and observation results to provide insights on how to refine the conceptual model and reduce prediction uncertainties. The experimental results revealed significant spatial variability in uranium adsorption/desorption behavior, while modeling demonstrated that ambient hydrologic and geochemical conditions and heterogeneities in sediment physical and chemical properties both contributed to complex plume behavior and its persistence. Our analysis provides important insights into the characterization, understanding, modeling, and remediation of groundwater contaminant plumes influenced by surface water and groundwater interactions.

Analytical study of nano-scale logical operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, Moumita; Maiti, Santanu K.

2018-07-01

A complete analytical prescription is given to perform three basic (OR, AND, NOT) and two universal (NAND, NOR) logic gates at nano-scale level using simple tailor made geometries. Two different geometries, ring-like and chain-like, are taken into account where in each case the bridging conductor is coupled to a local atomic site through a dangling bond whose site energy can be controlled by means of external gate electrode. The main idea is that when injecting electron energy matches with site energy of local atomic site transmission probability drops exactly to zero, whereas the junction exhibits finite transmission for other energies. Utilizing this prescription we perform logical operations, and, we strongly believe that the proposed results can be verified in laboratory. Finally, we numerically compute two-terminal transmission probability considering general models and the numerical results match exactly well with our analytical findings.

Agricultural disturbance response models for invertebrate and algal metrics from streams at two spatial scales within the U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waite, Ian R.

2014-01-01

As part of the USGS study of nutrient enrichment of streams in agricultural regions throughout the United States, about 30 sites within each of eight study areas were selected to capture a gradient of nutrient conditions. The objective was to develop watershed disturbance predictive models for macroinvertebrate and algal metrics at national and three regional landscape scales to obtain a better understanding of important explanatory variables. Explanatory variables in models were generated from landscape data, habitat, and chemistry. Instream nutrient concentration and variables assessing the amount of disturbance to the riparian zone (e.g., percent row crops or percent agriculture) were selected as most important explanatory variable in almost all boosted regression tree models regardless of landscape scale or assemblage. Frequently, TN and TP concentration and riparian agricultural land use variables showed a threshold type response at relatively low values to biotic metrics modeled. Some measure of habitat condition was also commonly selected in the final invertebrate models, though the variable(s) varied across regions. Results suggest national models tended to account for more general landscape/climate differences, while regional models incorporated both broad landscape scale and more specific local-scale variables.

Field investigation of the drift shadow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Su, G.W.; Kneafsey, T.J.; Ghezzehei, T.A.; Cook, P.J.; Marshall, B.D.

2006-01-01

The "Drift Shadow" is defined as the relatively drier region that forms below subsurface cavities or drifts in unsaturated rock. Its existence has been predicted through analytical and numerical models of unsaturated flow. However, these theoretical predictions have not been demonstrated empirically to date. In this project we plan to test the drift shadow concept through field investigations and compare our observations to simulations. Based on modeling studies we have an identified a suitable site to perform the study at an inactive mine in a sandstone formation. Pretest modeling studies and preliminary characterization of the site are being used to develop the field scale tests.

Event-based total suspended sediment particle size distribution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Jennifer; Sattar, Ahmed M. A.; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Warner, Richard C.

2016-05-01

One of the most challenging modelling tasks in hydrology is prediction of the total suspended sediment particle size distribution (TSS-PSD) in stormwater runoff generated from exposed soil surfaces at active construction sites and surface mining operations. The main objective of this study is to employ gene expression programming (GEP) and artificial neural networks (ANN) to develop a new model with the ability to more accurately predict the TSS-PSD by taking advantage of both event-specific and site-specific factors in the model. To compile the data for this study, laboratory scale experiments using rainfall simulators were conducted on fourteen different soils to obtain TSS-PSD. This data is supplemented with field data from three construction sites in Ontario over a period of two years to capture the effect of transport and deposition within the site. The combined data sets provide a wide range of key overlooked site-specific and storm event-specific factors. Both parent soil and TSS-PSD in runoff are quantified by fitting each to a lognormal distribution. Compared to existing regression models, the developed model more accurately predicted the TSS-PSD using a more comprehensive list of key model input parameters. Employment of the new model will increase the efficiency of deployment of required best management practices, designed based on TSS-PSD, to minimize potential adverse effects of construction site runoff on aquatic life in the receiving watercourses.

Small Scale Irrigation within Water, Energy and Food Nexus Framework in Ethiopia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerik, T.; Worqlul, A. W.; Yihun, D.; Bizimana, J. C.; Jeong, J.; Schmitter, P.; Srinivasan, R.; Richardson, J. W.; Clark, N.

2017-12-01

This study presents the nexus of food, energy and water framework in the context of small scale irrigation for vegetable production during the dry season in an irrigated agriculture system in Ethiopia. The study is based on detailed data collected in three sites of the Innovation Lab for Small Scale Irrigation (ILSSI) project in Ethiopia. The sites were Robit, Dangishta and Lemo and detailed field data was collected in 18 households in each site. The field data collected includes crop management (such as irrigation amount and dates, fertilizer rates, tillage practices, irrigation technologies, etc.) and agricultural production (crop yield, biomass, etc.) on tomato, onion and cabbage during the dry season. Four different water lifting technologies - namely rope with pulley and bucket, rope and washer pump, solar pump and motor pump - were used for water withdrawal from shallow groundwater wells. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) models were used in an integrated manner to assess water resource potential and develop water use efficiency of vegetables, which is a relationship between amount of water applied and vegetable yield. The water use efficiency for each vegetable crops were translated into energy requirement as pumping hours and potential irrigable areas for the water lifting technologies. This integrated approach was found useful to optimize water and energy use for sustainable food production using small scale irrigation. The holistic approach will not only provide a significant contribution to achieving food self-sufficiency, but will also be effective for optimizing agricultural input. Keyword: small scale irrigation, integrated modeling, water lifting technology, East Africa

Show me the data: advances in multi-model benchmarking, assimilation, and forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietze, M.; Raiho, A.; Fer, I.; Cowdery, E.; Kooper, R.; Kelly, R.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Desai, A. R.; Simkins, J.; Gardella, A.; Serbin, S.

2016-12-01

Researchers want their data to inform carbon cycle predictions, but there are considerable bottlenecks between data collection and the use of data to calibrate and validate earth system models and inform predictions. This talk highlights recent advancements in the PEcAn project aimed at it making it easier for individual researchers to confront models with their own data: (1) The development of an easily extensible site-scale benchmarking system aimed at ensuring that models capture process rather than just reproducing pattern; (2) Efficient emulator-based Bayesian parameter data assimilation to constrain model parameters; (3) A novel, generalized approach to ensemble data assimilation to estimate carbon pools and fluxes and quantify process error; (4) automated processing and downscaling of CMIP climate scenarios to support forecasts that include driver uncertainty; (5) a large expansion in the number of models supported, with new tools for conducting multi-model and multi-site analyses; and (6) a network-based architecture that allows analyses to be shared with model developers and other collaborators. Application of these methods is illustrated with data across a wide range of time scales, from eddy-covariance to forest inventories to tree rings to paleoecological pollen proxies.

Using sensitivity analysis in model calibration efforts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiedeman, Claire; Hill, Mary C.

2003-01-01

In models of natural and engineered systems, sensitivity analysis can be used to assess relations among system state observations, model parameters, and model predictions. The model itself links these three entities, and model sensitivities can be used to quantify the links. Sensitivities are defined as the derivatives of simulated quantities (such as simulated equivalents of observations, or model predictions) with respect to model parameters. We present four measures calculated from model sensitivities that quantify the observation-parameter-prediction links and that are especially useful during the calibration and prediction phases of modeling. These four measures are composite scaled sensitivities (CSS), prediction scaled sensitivities (PSS), the value of improved information (VOII) statistic, and the observation prediction (OPR) statistic. These measures can be used to help guide initial calibration of models, collection of field data beneficial to model predictions, and recalibration of models updated with new field information. Once model sensitivities have been calculated, each of the four measures requires minimal computational effort. We apply the four measures to a three-layer MODFLOW-2000 (Harbaugh et al., 2000; Hill et al., 2000) model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system (DVRFS), located in southern Nevada and California. D’Agnese et al. (1997, 1999) developed and calibrated the model using nonlinear regression methods. Figure 1 shows some of the observations, parameters, and predictions for the DVRFS model. Observed quantities include hydraulic heads and spring flows. The 23 defined model parameters include hydraulic conductivities, vertical anisotropies, recharge rates, evapotranspiration rates, and pumpage. Predictions of interest for this regional-scale model are advective transport paths from potential contamination sites underlying the Nevada Test Site and Yucca Mountain.

Topographic Metric Predictions of Soil redistribution and Organic Carbon Distribution in Croplands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mccarty, G.; Li, X.

2017-12-01

Landscape topography is a key factor controlling soil redistribution and soil organic carbon (SOC) distribution in Iowa croplands (USA). In this study, we adopted a combined approach based on carbon () and cesium (137Cs) isotope tracers, and digital terrain analysis to understand patterns of SOC redistribution and carbon sequestration dynamics as influenced by landscape topography in tilled cropland under long term corn/soybean management. The fallout radionuclide 137Cs was used to estimate soil redistribution rates and a Lidar-derived DEM was used to obtain a set of topographic metrics for digital terrain analysis. Soil redistribution rates and patterns of SOC distribution were examined across 560 sampling locations at two field sites as well as at larger scale within the watershed. We used δ13C content in SOC to partition C3 and C4 plant derived C density at 127 locations in one of the two field sites with corn being the primary source of C4 C. Topography-based models were developed to simulate SOC distribution and soil redistribution using stepwise ordinary least square regression (SOLSR) and stepwise principal component regression (SPCR). All topography-based models developed through SPCR and SOLSR demonstrated good simulation performance, explaining more than 62% variability in SOC density and soil redistribution rates across two field sites with intensive samplings. However, the SOLSR models showed lower reliability than the SPCR models in predicting SOC density at the watershed scale. Spatial patterns of C3-derived SOC density were highly related to those of SOC density. Topographic metrics exerted substantial influence on C3-derived SOC density with the SPCR model accounting for 76.5% of the spatial variance. In contrast C4 derived SOC density had poor spatial structure likely reflecting the substantial contribution of corn vegetation to recently sequestered SOC density. Results of this study highlighted the utility of topographic SPCR models for scaling field measurements of SOC density and soil redistribution rates to watershed scale which will allow watershed model to better predict fate of ecosystem C on agricultural landscapes.

Large-scale monitoring of shorebird populations using count data and N-mixture models: Black Oystercatcher (Haematopus bachmani) surveys by land and sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, James E.; Andrew, Royle J.; Thomas, Susan M.; Elliott-Smith, Elise; Evenson, Joseph R.; Kelly, Elizabeth G.; Milner, Ruth L.; Nysewander, David R.; Andres, Brad A.

2012-01-01

Large-scale monitoring of bird populations is often based on count data collected across spatial scales that may include multiple physiographic regions and habitat types. Monitoring at large spatial scales may require multiple survey platforms (e.g., from boats and land when monitoring coastal species) and multiple survey methods. It becomes especially important to explicitly account for detection probability when analyzing count data that have been collected using multiple survey platforms or methods. We evaluated a new analytical framework, N-mixture models, to estimate actual abundance while accounting for multiple detection biases. During May 2006, we made repeated counts of Black Oystercatchers (Haematopus bachmani) from boats in the Puget Sound area of Washington (n = 55 sites) and from land along the coast of Oregon (n = 56 sites). We used a Bayesian analysis of N-mixture models to (1) assess detection probability as a function of environmental and survey covariates and (2) estimate total Black Oystercatcher abundance during the breeding season in the two regions. Probability of detecting individuals during boat-based surveys was 0.75 (95% credible interval: 0.42–0.91) and was not influenced by tidal stage. Detection probability from surveys conducted on foot was 0.68 (0.39–0.90); the latter was not influenced by fog, wind, or number of observers but was ~35% lower during rain. The estimated population size was 321 birds (262–511) in Washington and 311 (276–382) in Oregon. N-mixture models provide a flexible framework for modeling count data and covariates in large-scale bird monitoring programs designed to understand population change.

Parameterizing atmosphere-land surface exchange for climate models with satellite data: A case study for the Southern Great Plains CART site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, W.

High-resolution satellite data provide detailed, quantitative descriptions of land surface characteristics over large areas so that objective scale linkage becomes feasible. With the aid of satellite data, Sellers et al. and Wood and Lakshmi examined the linearity of processes scaled up from 30 m to 15 km. If the phenomenon is scale invariant, then the aggregated value of a function or flux is equivalent to the function computed from aggregated values of controlling variables. The linear relation may be realistic for limited land areas having no large surface contrasts to cause significant horizontal exchange. However, for areas with sharp surfacemore » contrasts, horizontal exchange and different dynamics in the atmospheric boundary may induce nonlinear interactions, such as at interfaces of land-water, forest-farm land, and irrigated crops-desert steppe. The linear approach, however, represents the simplest scenario, and is useful for developing an effective scheme for incorporating subgrid land surface processes into large-scale models. Our studies focus on coupling satellite data and ground measurements with a satellite-data-driven land surface model to parameterize surface fluxes for large-scale climate models. In this case study, we used surface spectral reflectance data from satellite remote sensing to characterize spatial and temporal changes in vegetation and associated surface parameters in an area of about 350 {times} 400 km covering the southern Great Plains (SGP) Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site of the US Department of Energy`s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program.« less

Silvicolous on a small scale: possibilities and limitations of habitat suitability models for small, elusive mammals in conservation management and landscape planning.

PubMed

Becker, Nina I; Encarnação, Jorge A

2015-01-01

Species distribution and endangerment can be assessed by habitat-suitability modelling. This study addresses methodical aspects of habitat suitability modelling and includes an application example in actual species conservation and landscape planning. Models using species presence-absence data are preferable to presence-only models. In contrast to species presence data, absences are rarely recorded. Therefore, many studies generate pseudo-absence data for modelling. However, in this study model quality was higher with null samples collected in the field. Next to species data the choice of landscape data is crucial for suitability modelling. Landscape data with high resolution and ecological relevance for the study species improve model reliability and quality for small elusive mammals like Muscardinus avellanarius. For large scale assessment of species distribution, models with low-detailed data are sufficient. For regional site-specific conservation issues like a conflict-free site for new wind turbines, high-detailed regional models are needed. Even though the overlap with optimally suitable habitat for M. avellanarius was low, the installation of wind plants can pose a threat due to habitat loss and fragmentation. To conclude, modellers should clearly state the purpose of their models and choose the according level of detail for species and environmental data.

Identifiability in N-mixture models: a large-scale screening test with bird data.

PubMed

Kéry, Marc

2018-02-01

Binomial N-mixture models have proven very useful in ecology, conservation, and monitoring: they allow estimation and modeling of abundance separately from detection probability using simple counts. Recently, doubts about parameter identifiability have been voiced. I conducted a large-scale screening test with 137 bird data sets from 2,037 sites. I found virtually no identifiability problems for Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) binomial N-mixture models, but negative-binomial (NB) models had problems in 25% of all data sets. The corresponding multinomial N-mixture models had no problems. Parameter estimates under Poisson and ZIP binomial and multinomial N-mixture models were extremely similar. Identifiability problems became a little more frequent with smaller sample sizes (267 and 50 sites), but were unaffected by whether the models did or did not include covariates. Hence, binomial N-mixture model parameters with Poisson and ZIP mixtures typically appeared identifiable. In contrast, NB mixtures were often unidentifiable, which is worrying since these were often selected by Akaike's information criterion. Identifiability of binomial N-mixture models should always be checked. If problems are found, simpler models, integrated models that combine different observation models or the use of external information via informative priors or penalized likelihoods, may help. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Silvicolous on a Small Scale: Possibilities and Limitations of Habitat Suitability Models for Small, Elusive Mammals in Conservation Management and Landscape Planning

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Species distribution and endangerment can be assessed by habitat-suitability modelling. This study addresses methodical aspects of habitat suitability modelling and includes an application example in actual species conservation and landscape planning. Models using species presence-absence data are preferable to presence-only models. In contrast to species presence data, absences are rarely recorded. Therefore, many studies generate pseudo-absence data for modelling. However, in this study model quality was higher with null samples collected in the field. Next to species data the choice of landscape data is crucial for suitability modelling. Landscape data with high resolution and ecological relevance for the study species improve model reliability and quality for small elusive mammals like Muscardinus avellanarius. For large scale assessment of species distribution, models with low-detailed data are sufficient. For regional site-specific conservation issues like a conflict-free site for new wind turbines, high-detailed regional models are needed. Even though the overlap with optimally suitable habitat for M. avellanarius was low, the installation of wind plants can pose a threat due to habitat loss and fragmentation. To conclude, modellers should clearly state the purpose of their models and choose the according level of detail for species and environmental data. PMID:25781894

Monitoring and assessment of soil erosion at micro-scale and macro-scale in forests affected by fire damage in northern Iran.

PubMed

Akbarzadeh, Ali; Ghorbani-Dashtaki, Shoja; Naderi-Khorasgani, Mehdi; Kerry, Ruth; Taghizadeh-Mehrjardi, Ruhollah

2016-12-01

Understanding the occurrence of erosion processes at large scales is very difficult without studying them at small scales. In this study, soil erosion parameters were investigated at micro-scale and macro-scale in forests in northern Iran. Surface erosion and some vegetation attributes were measured at the watershed scale in 30 parcels of land which were separated into 15 fire-affected (burned) forests and 15 original (unburned) forests adjacent to the burned sites. The soil erodibility factor and splash erosion were also determined at the micro-plot scale within each burned and unburned site. Furthermore, soil sampling and infiltration studies were carried out at 80 other sites, as well as the 30 burned and unburned sites, (a total of 110 points) to create a map of the soil erodibility factor at the regional scale. Maps of topography, rainfall, and cover-management were also determined for the study area. The maps of erosion risk and erosion risk potential were finally prepared for the study area using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) procedure. Results indicated that destruction of the protective cover of forested areas by fire had significant effects on splash erosion and the soil erodibility factor at the micro-plot scale and also on surface erosion, erosion risk, and erosion risk potential at the watershed scale. Moreover, the results showed that correlation coefficients between different variables at the micro-plot and watershed scales were positive and significant. Finally, assessment and monitoring of the erosion maps at the regional scale showed that the central and western parts of the study area were more susceptible to erosion compared with the western regions due to more intense crop-management, greater soil erodibility, and more rainfall. The relationships between erosion parameters and the most important vegetation attributes were also used to provide models with equations that were specific to the study region. The results of this paper can be useful for better understanding erosion processes at the micro-scale and macro-scale in any region having similar vegetation attributes to the forests of northern Iran.

Field investigation into unsaturated flow and transport in a fault: Model analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, H.-H.; Salve, R.; Wang, J.-S.; Bodvarsson, G.S.; Hudson, D.

2004-01-01

Results of a fault test performed in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, were analyzed using a three-dimensional numerical model. The fault was explicitly represented as a discrete feature and the surrounding rock was treated as a dual-continuum (fracture-matrix) system. Model calibration against seepage and water-travel-velocity data suggests that lithophysal cavities connected to fractures can considerably enhance the effective fracture porosity and therefore retard water flow in fractures. Comparisons between simulation results and tracer concentration data also indicate that matrix diffusion is an important mechanism for solute transport in unsaturated fractured rock. We found that an increased fault-matrix and fracture-matrix interface areas were needed to match the observed tracer data, which is consistent with previous studies. The study results suggest that the current site-scale model for the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain may underestimate radionuclide transport time within the unsaturated zone, because an increased fracture-matrix interface area and the increased effective fracture porosity arising from lithophysal cavities are not considered in the current site-scale model. ?? 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Plant traits, productivity, biomass and soil properties from forest sites in the Pacific Northwest, 1999-2014.

PubMed

Berner, Logan T; Law, Beverly E

2016-01-19

Plant trait measurements are needed for evaluating ecological responses to environmental conditions and for ecosystem process model development, parameterization, and testing. We present a standardized dataset integrating measurements from projects conducted by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research and Regional Analysis- Pacific Northwest (TERRA-PNW) research group between 1999 and 2014 across Oregon and Northern California, where measurements were collected for scaling and modeling regional terrestrial carbon processes with models such as Biome-BGC and the Community Land Model. The dataset contains measurements of specific leaf area, leaf longevity, leaf carbon and nitrogen for 35 tree and shrub species derived from more than 1,200 branch samples collected from over 200 forest plots, including several AmeriFlux sites. The dataset also contains plot-level measurements of forest composition, structure (e.g., tree biomass), and productivity, as well as measurements of soil structure (e.g., bulk density) and chemistry (e.g., carbon). Publically-archiving regional datasets of standardized, co-located, and geo-referenced plant trait measurements will advance the ability of earth system models to capture species-level climate sensitivity at regional to global scales.

Plant traits, productivity, biomass and soil properties from forest sites in the Pacific Northwest, 1999-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, Logan T.; Law, Beverly E.

2016-01-01

Plant trait measurements are needed for evaluating ecological responses to environmental conditions and for ecosystem process model development, parameterization, and testing. We present a standardized dataset integrating measurements from projects conducted by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research and Regional Analysis- Pacific Northwest (TERRA-PNW) research group between 1999 and 2014 across Oregon and Northern California, where measurements were collected for scaling and modeling regional terrestrial carbon processes with models such as Biome-BGC and the Community Land Model. The dataset contains measurements of specific leaf area, leaf longevity, leaf carbon and nitrogen for 35 tree and shrub species derived from more than 1,200 branch samples collected from over 200 forest plots, including several AmeriFlux sites. The dataset also contains plot-level measurements of forest composition, structure (e.g., tree biomass), and productivity, as well as measurements of soil structure (e.g., bulk density) and chemistry (e.g., carbon). Publically-archiving regional datasets of standardized, co-located, and geo-referenced plant trait measurements will advance the ability of earth system models to capture species-level climate sensitivity at regional to global scales.

The importance of radiation for semiempirical water-use efficiency models

DOE PAGES

Boese, Sven; Jung, Martin; Carvalhais, Nuno; ...

2017-06-22

Water-use efficiency (WUE) is a fundamental property for the coupling of carbon and water cycles in plants and ecosystems. Existing model formulations predicting this variable differ in the type of response of WUE to the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit of water (VPD). We tested a representative WUE model on the ecosystem scale at 110 eddy covariance sites of the FLUXNET initiative by predicting evapotranspiration (ET) based on gross primary productivity (GPP) and VPD. We found that introducing an intercept term in the formulation increases model performance considerably, indicating that an additional factor needs to be considered. We demonstrate that thismore » intercept term varies seasonally and we subsequently associate it with radiation. Replacing the constant intercept term with a linear function of global radiation was found to further improve model predictions of ET. Our new semiempirical ecosystem WUE formulation indicates that, averaged over all sites, this radiation term accounts for up to half (39–47 %) of transpiration. These empirical findings challenge the current understanding of water-use efficiency on the ecosystem scale.« less

Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeh, Gour T.; National Central Univ.; Univ. of Central Florida

2013-05-01

There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out aremore » used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co).The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models for environmental remediation.The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium.« less

Effect of small versus large clusters of fish school on the yield of a purse-seine small pelagic fishery including a marine protected area.

PubMed

Hieu, Nguyen Trong; Brochier, Timothée; Tri, Nguyen-Huu; Auger, Pierre; Brehmer, Patrice

2014-09-01

We consider a fishery model with two sites: (1) a marine protected area (MPA) where fishing is prohibited and (2) an area where the fish population is harvested. We assume that fish can migrate from MPA to fishing area at a very fast time scale and fish spatial organisation can change from small to large clusters of school at a fast time scale. The growth of the fish population and the catch are assumed to occur at a slow time scale. The complete model is a system of five ordinary differential equations with three time scales. We take advantage of the time scales using aggregation of variables methods to derive a reduced model governing the total fish density and fishing effort at the slow time scale. We analyze this aggregated model and show that under some conditions, there exists an equilibrium corresponding to a sustainable fishery. Our results suggest that in small pelagic fisheries the yield is maximum for a fish population distributed among both small and large clusters of school.

An optimal beam alignment method for large-scale distributed space surveillance radar system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jian; Wang, Dongya; Xia, Shuangzhi

2018-06-01

Large-scale distributed space surveillance radar is a very important ground-based equipment to maintain a complete catalogue for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space debris. However, due to the thousands of kilometers distance between each sites of the distributed radar system, how to optimally implement the Transmitting/Receiving (T/R) beams alignment in a great space using the narrow beam, which proposed a special and considerable technical challenge in the space surveillance area. According to the common coordinate transformation model and the radar beam space model, we presented a two dimensional projection algorithm for T/R beam using the direction angles, which could visually describe and assess the beam alignment performance. Subsequently, the optimal mathematical models for the orientation angle of the antenna array, the site location and the T/R beam coverage are constructed, and also the beam alignment parameters are precisely solved. At last, we conducted the optimal beam alignment experiments base on the site parameters of Air Force Space Surveillance System (AFSSS). The simulation results demonstrate the correctness and effectiveness of our novel method, which can significantly stimulate the construction for the LEO space debris surveillance equipment.

Estimation of Regional Net CO2 Exchange over the Southern Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biraud, S. C.; Riley, W. J.; Fischer, M. L.; Torn, M. S.; Cooley, H. S.

2004-12-01

Estimating spatially distributed ecosystem CO2 exchange is an important component of the North American Carbon Program. We describe here a methodology to estimate Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) over the Southern Great Plains, using: (1) data from the Department Of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in Oklahoma and Kansas; (2) meteorological forcing data from the Mesonet facilities; (3) soil and vegetation types from 1 km resolution USGS databases; (4) vegetation status (e.g., LAI) from 1 km satellite measurements of surface reflectance (MODIS); (5) a tested land-surface model; and (6) a coupled land-surface and meteorological model (MM5/ISOLSM). This framework allows us to simulate regional surface fluxes in addition to ABL and free troposphere concentrations of CO2 at a continental scale with fine-scale nested grids centered on the ARM central facility. We use the offline land-surface and coupled models to estimate regional NEE, and compare predictions to measurements from the 9 Extended Facility sites with eddy correlation measurements. Site level comparisons to portable ECOR measurements in several crop types are also presented. Our approach also allows us to extend bottom-up estimates to periods and areas where meteorological forcing data are unavailable.

Assessing allometric models to predict vegetative growth of mango (Mangifera indica; Anacardiaceae) at the current-year branch scale.

PubMed

Normand, Frédéric; Lauri, Pierre-Éric

2012-03-01

Accurate and reliable predictive models are necessary to estimate nondestructively key variables for plant growth studies such as leaf area and leaf, stem, and total biomass. Predictive models are lacking at the current-year branch scale despite the importance of this scale in plant science. We calibrated allometric models to estimate leaf area and stem and branch (leaves + stem) mass of current-year branches, i.e., branches several months old studied at the end of the vegetative growth season, of four mango cultivars on the basis of their basal cross-sectional area. The effects of year, site, and cultivar were tested. Models were validated with independent data and prediction accuracy was evaluated with the appropriate statistics. Models revealed a positive allometry between dependent and independent variables, whose y-intercept but not the slope, was affected by the cultivar. The effects of year and site were negligible. For each branch characteristic, cultivar-specific models were more accurate than common models built with pooled data from the four cultivars. Prediction quality was satisfactory but with data dispersion around the models, particularly for large values. Leaf area and stem and branch mass of mango current-year branches could be satisfactorily estimated on the basis of branch basal cross-sectional area with cultivar-specific allometric models. The results suggested that, in addition to the heteroscedastic behavior of the variables studied, model accuracy was probably related to the functional plasticity of branches in relation to the light environment and/or to the number of growth units composing the branches.

Modeling temporal and large-scale spatial variability of soil respiration from soil water availability, temperature and vegetation productivity indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichstein, Markus; Rey, Ana; Freibauer, Annette; Tenhunen, John; Valentini, Riccardo; Banza, Joao; Casals, Pere; Cheng, Yufu; Grünzweig, Jose M.; Irvine, James; Joffre, Richard; Law, Beverly E.; Loustau, Denis; Miglietta, Franco; Oechel, Walter; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Pereira, Joao S.; Peressotti, Alessandro; Ponti, Francesca; Qi, Ye; Rambal, Serge; Rayment, Mark; Romanya, Joan; Rossi, Federica; Tedeschi, Vanessa; Tirone, Giampiero; Xu, Ming; Yakir, Dan

2003-12-01

Field-chamber measurements of soil respiration from 17 different forest and shrubland sites in Europe and North America were summarized and analyzed with the goal to develop a model describing seasonal, interannual and spatial variability of soil respiration as affected by water availability, temperature, and site properties. The analysis was performed at a daily and at a monthly time step. With the daily time step, the relative soil water content in the upper soil layer expressed as a fraction of field capacity was a good predictor of soil respiration at all sites. Among the site variables tested, those related to site productivity (e.g., leaf area index) correlated significantly with soil respiration, while carbon pool variables like standing biomass or the litter and soil carbon stocks did not show a clear relationship with soil respiration. Furthermore, it was evidenced that the effect of precipitation on soil respiration stretched beyond its direct effect via soil moisture. A general statistical nonlinear regression model was developed to describe soil respiration as dependent on soil temperature, soil water content, and site-specific maximum leaf area index. The model explained nearly two thirds of the temporal and intersite variability of soil respiration with a mean absolute error of 0.82 μmol m-2 s-1. The parameterized model exhibits the following principal properties: (1) At a relative amount of upper-layer soil water of 16% of field capacity, half-maximal soil respiration rates are reached. (2) The apparent temperature sensitivity of soil respiration measured as Q10 varies between 1 and 5 depending on soil temperature and water content. (3) Soil respiration under reference moisture and temperature conditions is linearly related to maximum site leaf area index. At a monthly timescale, we employed the approach by [2002] that used monthly precipitation and air temperature to globally predict soil respiration (T&P model). While this model was able to explain some of the month-to-month variability of soil respiration, it failed to capture the intersite variability, regardless of whether the original or a new optimized model parameterization was used. In both cases, the residuals were strongly related to maximum site leaf area index. Thus, for a monthly timescale, we developed a simple T&P&LAI model that includes leaf area index as an additional predictor of soil respiration. This extended but still simple model performed nearly as well as the more detailed time step model and explained 50% of the overall and 65% of the site-to-site variability. Consequently, better estimates of globally distributed soil respiration should be obtained with the new model driven by satellite estimates of leaf area index. Before application at the continental or global scale, this approach should be further tested in boreal, cold-temperate, and tropical biomes as well as for non-woody vegetation.

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF THE VADOSE ZONE IN MULTIMEDIA RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING APPLIED AT A NATIONAL SCALE: AN ANALYSIS OF BENZENE USING 3MRA

EPA Science Inventory

Evaluating uncertainty and parameter sensitivity in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-media constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. The challenge of examining ever more complex, integrated, higher-order models is a formidab...

A spatial-dynamic value transfer model of economic losses from a biological invasion

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Kent F. Kovacs; Betsy Von Holle

2010-01-01

Rigorous assessments of the economic impacts of introduced species at broad spatial scales are required to provide credible information to policy makers. We propose that economic models of aggregate damages induced by biological invasions need to link microeconomic analyses of site-specific economic damages with spatial-dynamic models of value change associated with...

Linking landscape characteristics to mineral site use by band-tailed pigeons in Western Oregon: Coarse-filter conservation with fine-filter tuning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Overton, C.T.; Schmitz, R.A.; Casazza, Michael L.

2006-01-01

Mineral sites are scarce resources of high ion concentration used heavily by the Pacific Coast subpopulation of band-tailed pigeons. Over 20% of all known mineral sites used by band-tailed pigeons in western Oregon, including all hot springs, have been abandoned. Prior investigations have not analyzed stand or landscape level habitat composition in relation to band-tailed pigeon use of mineral sites. We used logistic regression models to evaluate the influence of habitat types, identified from Gap Analysis Program (GAP) products at two spatial scales, on the odds of mineral site use in Oregon (n = 69 currently used and 20 historically used). Our results indicated that the odds of current use were negatively associated with non-forested terrestrial and private land area around mineral sites. Similarly, the odds of current mineral site use were positively associated with forested and special status (GAP stewardship codes 1 and 2) land area. The most important variable associated with the odds of mineral site use was the amount of non-forested land cover at either spatial scale. Our results demonstrate the utility of meso-scale geographic information designed for regional, coarse-filter approaches to conservation in fine-filter investigation of wildlife-habitat relationships. Adjacent landcover and ownership status explain the pattern of use for known mineral sites in western Oregon. In order for conservation and management activities for band-tailed pigeons to be successful, mineral sites need to be addressed as important and vulnerable resources. Management of band-tailed pigeons should incorporate the potential for forest management activities and land ownership patterns to influence the risk of mineral site abandonment.

Bird assemblage response to restoration of fire-suppressed longleaf pine sandhills.

PubMed

Steen, David A; Conner, L M; Smith, Lora L; Provencher, Louis; Hiers, J Kevin; Pokswinski, Scott; Helms, Brian S; Guyer, Craig

2013-01-01

The ecological restoration of fire-suppressed habitats may require a multifaceted approach. Removal of hardwood trees together with reintroduction of fire has been suggested as a method of restoring fire-suppressed longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) forests; however, this strategy, although widespread, has not been evaluated on large spatial and temporal scales. We used a landscape-scale experimental design to examine how bird assemblages in fire-suppressed longleaf pine sandhills responded to fire alone or fire following mechanical removal or herbicide application to reduce hardwood levels. Individual treatments were compared to fire-suppressed controls and reference sites. After initial treatment, all sites were managed with prescribed fire, on an approximately two- to three-year interval, for over a decade. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordinations suggested that avian assemblages on sites that experienced any form of hardwood removal differed from assemblages on both fire-suppressed sites and reference sites 3-4 years after treatment (i.e., early posttreatment). After >10 years of prescribed burning on all sites (i.e., late posttreatment), only assemblages at sites treated with herbicide were indistinguishable from assemblages at reference sites. By the end of the study, individual species that were once indicators of reference sites no longer contributed to making reference sites unique. Occupancy modeling of these indicator species also demonstrated increasing similarity across treatments over time. Overall, although we documented long-term and variable assemblage-level change, our results indicate occupancy for birds considered longleaf pine specialists was similar at treatment and reference sites after over a decade of prescribed burning, regardless of initial method of hardwood removal. In other words, based on the response of species highly associated with the habitat, we found no justification for the added cost and effort of fire surrogates; fire alone was sufficient to restore these species.

Where to Dig for Fossils: Combining Climate-Envelope, Taphonomy and Discovery Models

PubMed Central

Block, Sebastián; Saltré, Frédérik; Rodríguez-Rey, Marta; Fordham, Damien A.; Unkel, Ingmar; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.

2016-01-01

Fossils represent invaluable data to reconstruct the past history of life, yet fossil-rich sites are often rare and difficult to find. The traditional fossil-hunting approach focuses on small areas and has not yet taken advantage of modelling techniques commonly used in ecology to account for an organism’s past distributions. We propose a new method to assist finding fossils at continental scales based on modelling the past distribution of species, the geological suitability of fossil preservation and the likelihood of fossil discovery in the field, and apply it to several genera of Australian megafauna that went extinct in the Late Quaternary. Our models predicted higher fossil potentials for independent sites than for randomly selected locations (mean Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic = 0.66). We demonstrate the utility of accounting for the distribution history of fossil taxa when trying to find the most suitable areas to look for fossils. For some genera, the probability of finding fossils based on simple climate-envelope models was higher than the probability based on models incorporating current conditions associated with fossil preservation and discovery as predictors. However, combining the outputs from climate-envelope, preservation, and discovery models resulted in the most accurate predictions of potential fossil sites at a continental scale. We proposed potential areas to discover new fossils of Diprotodon, Zygomaturus, Protemnodon, Thylacoleo, and Genyornis, and provide guidelines on how to apply our approach to assist fossil hunting in other continents and geological settings. PMID:27027874

Where to Dig for Fossils: Combining Climate-Envelope, Taphonomy and Discovery Models.

PubMed

Block, Sebastián; Saltré, Frédérik; Rodríguez-Rey, Marta; Fordham, Damien A; Unkel, Ingmar; Bradshaw, Corey J A

2016-01-01

Fossils represent invaluable data to reconstruct the past history of life, yet fossil-rich sites are often rare and difficult to find. The traditional fossil-hunting approach focuses on small areas and has not yet taken advantage of modelling techniques commonly used in ecology to account for an organism's past distributions. We propose a new method to assist finding fossils at continental scales based on modelling the past distribution of species, the geological suitability of fossil preservation and the likelihood of fossil discovery in the field, and apply it to several genera of Australian megafauna that went extinct in the Late Quaternary. Our models predicted higher fossil potentials for independent sites than for randomly selected locations (mean Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic = 0.66). We demonstrate the utility of accounting for the distribution history of fossil taxa when trying to find the most suitable areas to look for fossils. For some genera, the probability of finding fossils based on simple climate-envelope models was higher than the probability based on models incorporating current conditions associated with fossil preservation and discovery as predictors. However, combining the outputs from climate-envelope, preservation, and discovery models resulted in the most accurate predictions of potential fossil sites at a continental scale. We proposed potential areas to discover new fossils of Diprotodon, Zygomaturus, Protemnodon, Thylacoleo, and Genyornis, and provide guidelines on how to apply our approach to assist fossil hunting in other continents and geological settings.

Quantification of source impact to PM using three-dimensional weighted factor model analysis on multi-site data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Guoliang; Peng, Xing; Huangfu, Yanqi; Wang, Wei; Xu, Jiao; Tian, Yingze; Feng, Yinchang; Ivey, Cesunica E.; Russell, Armistead G.

2017-07-01

Source apportionment technologies are used to understand the impacts of important sources of particulate matter (PM) air quality, and are widely used for both scientific studies and air quality management. Generally, receptor models apportion speciated PM data from a single sampling site. With the development of large scale monitoring networks, PM speciation are observed at multiple sites in an urban area. For these situations, the models should account for three factors, or dimensions, of the PM, including the chemical species concentrations, sampling periods and sampling site information, suggesting the potential power of a three-dimensional source apportionment approach. However, the principle of three-dimensional Parallel Factor Analysis (Ordinary PARAFAC) model does not always work well in real environmental situations for multi-site receptor datasets. In this work, a new three-way receptor model, called "multi-site three way factor analysis" model is proposed to deal with the multi-site receptor datasets. Synthetic datasets were developed and introduced into the new model to test its performance. Average absolute error (AAE, between estimated and true contributions) for extracted sources were all less than 50%. Additionally, three-dimensional ambient datasets from a Chinese mega-city, Chengdu, were analyzed using this new model to assess the application. Four factors are extracted by the multi-site WFA3 model: secondary source have the highest contributions (64.73 and 56.24 μg/m3), followed by vehicular exhaust (30.13 and 33.60 μg/m3), crustal dust (26.12 and 29.99 μg/m3) and coal combustion (10.73 and 14.83 μg/m3). The model was also compared to PMF, with general agreement, though PMF suggested a lower crustal contribution.

Field scale DNAPLs transport under nonequilibrium sorption conditions.

PubMed

Ahmed, Ashraf A; Chen, Daoyi

2006-01-01

The purpose of this work is to study the desorption of dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs), TCE in particular, from solid particles in field scale heterogeneous aquifers upon their remediation. A computer program, capable of simulating the fate and transport of NAPLs in porous media, has been developed to work under nonequilibrium sorption conditions. The model has been applied to a field scale site at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, which has been contaminated by DNAPLs. The simulated domain was 155 ft (47.25 m) long, 60 ft (18.29 m) wide, and 15.5 ft (4.72 m) thick. This thickness represents only the saturated zone of the aquifer. Changes in permeability, grain size distribution, and sorptive properties throughout the site have been incorporated into the model. Immediately after the aquifer cleanup, the DNAPL concentration in the aqueous phase was assumed to be zero, and this was considered the start-off time for the simulation. Results show that, with an increase in time, the TCE diffused out of the solid particles, forming a plume. The rate of contaminant diffusion was observed to be very fast at the start, followed by a very slow stage, with a number of years required for substantial desorption of the contaminant from the solid particles. There were local variations in contaminant concentration in the fluid phase across the site due to aquifer heterogeneity. A comparison between numerical results and water samples taken from the site after the end of the cleanup operation is also presented.

Explanatory Power of Multi-scale Physical Descriptors in Modeling Benthic Indices Across Nested Ecoregions of the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holburn, E. R.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Poff, N. L.; Cuhaciyan, C. O.

2005-05-01

Using over 300 R/EMAP sites in OR and WA, we examine the relative explanatory power of watershed, valley, and reach scale descriptors in modeling variation in benthic macroinvertebrate indices. Innovative metrics describing flow regime, geomorphic processes, and hydrologic-distance weighted watershed and valley characteristics are used in multiple regression and regression tree modeling to predict EPT richness, % EPT, EPT/C, and % Plecoptera. A nested design using seven ecoregions is employed to evaluate the influence of geographic scale and environmental heterogeneity on the explanatory power of individual and combined scales. Regression tree models are constructed to explain variability while identifying threshold responses and interactions. Cross-validated models demonstrate differences in the explanatory power associated with single-scale and multi-scale models as environmental heterogeneity is varied. Models explaining the greatest variability in biological indices result from multi-scale combinations of physical descriptors. Results also indicate that substantial variation in benthic macroinvertebrate response can be explained with process-based watershed and valley scale metrics derived exclusively from common geospatial data. This study outlines a general framework for identifying key processes driving macroinvertebrate assemblages across a range of scales and establishing the geographic extent at which various levels of physical description best explain biological variability. Such information can guide process-based stratification to avoid spurious comparison of dissimilar stream types in bioassessments and ensure that key environmental gradients are adequately represented in sampling designs.

Mapping the distribution of the denitrifier community at large scales (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philippot, L.; Bru, D.; Ramette, A.; Dequiedt, S.; Ranjard, L.; Jolivet, C.; Arrouays, D.

2010-12-01

Little information is available regarding the landscape-scale distribution of microbial communities and its environmental determinants. Here we combined molecular approaches and geostatistical modeling to explore spatial patterns of the denitrifying community at large scales. The distribution of denitrifrying community was investigated over 107 sites in Burgundy, a 31 500 km2 region of France, using a 16 X 16 km sampling grid. At each sampling site, the abundances of denitrifiers and 42 soil physico-chemical properties were measured. The relative contributions of land use, spatial distance, climatic conditions, time and soil physico-chemical properties to the denitrifier spatial distribution were analyzed by canonical variation partitioning. Our results indicate that 43% to 85% of the spatial variation in community abundances could be explained by the measured environmental parameters, with soil chemical properties (mostly pH) being the main driver. We found spatial autocorrelation up to 740 km and used geostatistical modelling to generate predictive maps of the distribution of denitrifiers at the landscape scale. Studying the distribution of the denitrifiers at large scale can help closing the artificial gap between the investigation of microbial processes and microbial community ecology, therefore facilitating our understanding of the relationships between the ecology of denitrifiers and N-fluxes by denitrification.

Construction of a 40-mile long roadside scale model of the solar system in northern Maine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCartney, K.

2001-05-01

The Maine Solar System Model is currently under construction along Route 1 between Houlton and Presque Isle, in Aroostook County, northern Maine. The scale is 1:93,000,000, or 1 mile equals an astronomical unit. There is a 40 mile distance between the Sun (diameter 49.5 feet) and Pluto (diameter 1 inch). The model will include the Sun, nine planets and seven moons, with diameters and distances all to the same scale. Except for the Sun, all components will be three-dimensional and built to withstand the northern Maine climate. Construction is generally of steel with fiberglass globes positioned on steel posts at least ten feet above ground and 55 feet off the roadway. Road safety concerns require that the Jupiter and Saturn sites include parking lots. Educational information associated with the model will be provided on brochures, since textual information at the sites would require excessive stops and parking problems. Learning exercises will also be provided by travelling trunks prepared by Maine teachers to support the State of Maine Learning Results. This is a community project with the various components being built by ten area schools and with active assistance from many community members and organizations. It is being built with with very little money, with most materials and labor donated.

Onboard Science Insights and Vehicle Dynamics from Scale-Model Trials of the Titan Mare Explorer (TiME) Capsule at Laguna Negra, Chile.

PubMed

Lorenz, Ralph D; Cabrol, Nathalie A

2018-05-01

A scale model of the proposed Titan Mare Explorer capsule was deployed at the Planetary Lake Lander field site at Laguna Negra, Chile. The tests served to calibrate models of wind-driven drift of the capsule and to understand its attitude motion in the wave field, as well as to identify dynamic and acoustic signatures of shoreline approach. This information enables formulation of onboard trigger criteria for near-shore science data acquisition. Key Words: Titan-Vehicle dynamics-Science autonomy-Lake. Astrobiology 18, 607-618.

Describing Willow Flycatcher habitats: scale perspectives and gender differences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedgwick, James A.; Knopf, Fritz L.

1992-01-01

We compared habitat characteristics of nest sites (female-selected sites) and song perch sites (male-selected sites) with those of sites unused by Willow Flycatchers (Empidonax traillii) at three different scales of vegetation measurement: (1) microplot (central willow [Salix spp.] bush and four adjacent bushes); (2) mesoplot (0.07 ha); and, (3) macroplot (flycatcher territory size). Willow Flycatchers exhibited vegetation preferences at all three scales. Nest sites were distinguished by high willow density and low variability in willow patch size and bush height. Song perch sites were characterized by large central shrubs, low central shrub vigor, and high variability in shrub size. Unused sites were characterized by greater distances between willows and willow patches, less willow coverage, and a smaller riparian zone width than either nest or song perch sites. At all scales, nest sites were situated farther from unused sites in multivariate habitat space than were song perch sites, suggesting (1) a correspondence among scales in their ability to describe Willow Flycatcher habitat, and (2) females are more discriminating in habitat selection than males. Microhabitat differences between male-selected (song perch) and female-selected (nest) sites were evident at the two smaller scales; at the finest scale, the segregation in habitat space between male-selected and female-selected sites was greater than that between male-selected and unused sites. Differences between song perch and nest sites were not apparent at the scale of flycatcher territory size, possibly due to inclusion of (1) both nest and song perch sites, (2) defended, but unused habitat, and/or (3) habitat outside of the territory, in larger scale analyses. The differences between nest and song perch sites at the finer scales reflect their different functions (e.g., nest concealment and microclimatic requirements vs. advertising and territorial defense, respectively), and suggest that the exclusive use of either nest or song perch sites in vegetation analyses can result in misleading, or at least incomplete, descriptions of a species' habitat. Habitat interpretations for Willow Flycatchers (and perhaps for many passerines) are a function of the gender-specific behavior of the birds observed and the scale of vegetation measurement.

Merging a mechanistic enzymatic model of soil heterotrophic respiration into an ecosystem model in two AmeriFlux sites of northeastern USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sihi, Debjani; Davidson, Eric A.; Chen, Min

Heterotrophic respiration (Rh), microbial processing of soil organic matter to carbon dioxide (CO 2), is a major, yet highly uncertain, carbon (C) flux from terrestrial systems to the atmosphere. Temperature sensitivity of Rh is often represented with a simple Q 10 function in ecosystem models and earth system models (ESMs), sometimes accompanied by an empirical soil moisture modifier. More explicit representation of the effects of soil moisture, substrate supply, and their interactions with temperature has been proposed as a way to disentangle the confounding factors of apparent temperature sensitivity of Rh and improve the performance of ecosystem models and ESMs.more » The objective of this work was to insert into an ecosystem model a more mechanistic, but still parsimonious, model of environmental factors controlling Rh and evaluate the model performance in terms of soil and ecosystem respiration. The Dual Arrhenius and Michaelis-Menten (DAMM) model simulates Rh using Michaelis-Menten, Arrhenius, and diffusion functions. Soil moisture affects Rh and its apparent temperature sensitivity in DAMM by regulating the diffusion of oxygen, soluble C substrates, and extracellular enzymes to the enzymatic reaction site. Here, we merged the DAMM soil flux model with a parsimonious ecosystem flux model, FöBAAR (Forest Biomass, Assimilation, Allocation and Respiration). We used high-frequency soil flux data from automated soil chambers and landscape-scale ecosystem fluxes from eddy covariance towers at two AmeriFlux sites (Harvard Forest, MA and Howland Forest, ME) in the northeastern USA to estimate parameters, validate the merged model, and to quantify the uncertainties in a multiple constraints approach. The optimized DAMM-FöBAAR model better captured the seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of soil respiration (Soil R) compared to the FöBAAR-only model for the Harvard Forest, where higher frequency and duration of drying events significantly regulate substrate supply to heterotrophs. However, DAMM-FöBAAR showed improvement over FöBAAR-only at the boreal transition Howland Forest only in unusually dry years. The frequency of synoptic-scale dry periods is lower at Howland, resulting in only brief water limitation of Rh in some years. At both sites, the declining trend of soil R during drying events was captured by the DAMM-FöBAAR model; however, model performance was also contingent on site conditions, climate, and the temporal scale of interest. While the DAMM functions require a few more parameters than a simple Q10 function, we have demonstrated that they can be included in an ecosystem model and reduce the model-data mismatch. Moreover, the mechanistic structure of the soil moisture effects using DAMM functions should be more generalizable than the wide variety of empirical functions that are commonly used, and these DAMM functions could be readily incorporated into other ecosystem models and ESMs.« less

Interests of long-term hydrogeological observatories for characterizing and modelling heterogeneous groundwater systems at multiple temporal and spatial scales: the example of Ploemeur, a crystalline rock aquifer (Brittany).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bour, Olivier; Longuervergne, Laurent; Le Borgne, Tanguy; Lavenant, Nicolas; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald; Schuite, Jonathan; Labasque, Thierry; Aquilina, Luc; Davy, Philippe

2017-04-01

Characterizing groundwater flows and surface interactions in heterogeneous groundwater systems such as crystalline fractured rock is often extremely complex. In particular, hydraulic properties are highly variable while groundwater chemical properties may vary both in space and time, especially due to the impact of groundwater abstraction. Here, we show the interest of hydrological observatories and long-term monitoring for characterizing hydrological processes occurring in a crystalline rock aquifer. We present results from the site of Ploemeur (French Brittany) that belongs to the network of hydrogeological sites H+ and the research infrastructure OZCAR, and where interdisciplinary and integrated research at multiple temporal and spatial scales has been developed for almost twenty years. This outstandingly heterogeneous crystalline rock aquifer is also used for groundwater supply since 1991. In particular, we show how cross-borehole flowmeter tests, pumping tests and a frequency domain analysis of groundwater levels allow quantifying the hydraulic properties of the aquifer at different scales. In addition, groundwater temperature evolution was used as an excellent tracer for characterizing groundwater flow. At the site scale, measurements of ground surface deformation through long-base tiltmeters provide robust estimates of aquifer storage and allow identifying the active structures, including those acting during recharge process. Finally, a numerical model of the watershed scale that combines hydraulic data and groundwater ages confirms the geometry of this complex aquifer and the consistency of the different datasets. In parallel, this hydrological observatory is also used for developing hydrogeophysical methods and to characterize groundwater transport and biogeochemical reactivity in the sub-surface. The Ploemeur hydrogeological observatory is a good example of the interest of focusing research activities on a site during long-term as it provides a thorough understanding of both hydrological and biogeochemical processes that can be extended to many heterogeneous aquifers.

Databases for multilevel biophysiology research available at Physiome.jp.

PubMed

Asai, Yoshiyuki; Abe, Takeshi; Li, Li; Oka, Hideki; Nomura, Taishin; Kitano, Hiroaki

2015-01-01

Physiome.jp (http://physiome.jp) is a portal site inaugurated in 2007 to support model-based research in physiome and systems biology. At Physiome.jp, several tools and databases are available to support construction of physiological, multi-hierarchical, large-scale models. There are three databases in Physiome.jp, housing mathematical models, morphological data, and time-series data. In late 2013, the site was fully renovated, and in May 2015, new functions were implemented to provide information infrastructure to support collaborative activities for developing models and performing simulations within the database framework. This article describes updates to the databases implemented since 2013, including cooperation among the three databases, interactive model browsing, user management, version management of models, management of parameter sets, and interoperability with applications.

Evolution of Precipitation Structure During the November DYNAMO MJO Event: Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison and Cross Validation Using Radar Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaowen; Janiga, Matthew A.; Wang, Shuguang; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Rowe, Angela; Xu, Weixin; Liu, Chuntao; Matsui, Toshihisa; Zhang, Chidong

2018-04-01

Evolution of precipitation structures are simulated and compared with radar observations for the November Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event during the DYNAmics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign. Three ground-based, ship-borne, and spaceborne precipitation radars and three cloud-resolving models (CRMs) driven by observed large-scale forcing are used to study precipitation structures at different locations over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Convective strength is represented by 0-dBZ echo-top heights, and convective organization by contiguous 17-dBZ areas. The multi-radar and multi-model framework allows for more stringent model validations. The emphasis is on testing models' ability to simulate subtle differences observed at different radar sites when the MJO event passed through. The results show that CRMs forced by site-specific large-scale forcing can reproduce not only common features in cloud populations but also subtle variations observed by different radars. The comparisons also revealed common deficiencies in CRM simulations where they underestimate radar echo-top heights for the strongest convection within large, organized precipitation features. Cross validations with multiple radars and models also enable quantitative comparisons in CRM sensitivity studies using different large-scale forcing, microphysical schemes and parameters, resolutions, and domain sizes. In terms of radar echo-top height temporal variations, many model sensitivity tests have better correlations than radar/model comparisons, indicating robustness in model performance on this aspect. It is further shown that well-validated model simulations could be used to constrain uncertainties in observed echo-top heights when the low-resolution surveillance scanning strategy is used.

3D fully convolutional networks for subcortical segmentation in MRI: A large-scale study.

PubMed

Dolz, Jose; Desrosiers, Christian; Ben Ayed, Ismail

2018-04-15

This study investigates a 3D and fully convolutional neural network (CNN) for subcortical brain structure segmentation in MRI. 3D CNN architectures have been generally avoided due to their computational and memory requirements during inference. We address the problem via small kernels, allowing deeper architectures. We further model both local and global context by embedding intermediate-layer outputs in the final prediction, which encourages consistency between features extracted at different scales and embeds fine-grained information directly in the segmentation process. Our model is efficiently trained end-to-end on a graphics processing unit (GPU), in a single stage, exploiting the dense inference capabilities of fully CNNs. We performed comprehensive experiments over two publicly available datasets. First, we demonstrate a state-of-the-art performance on the ISBR dataset. Then, we report a large-scale multi-site evaluation over 1112 unregistered subject datasets acquired from 17 different sites (ABIDE dataset), with ages ranging from 7 to 64 years, showing that our method is robust to various acquisition protocols, demographics and clinical factors. Our method yielded segmentations that are highly consistent with a standard atlas-based approach, while running in a fraction of the time needed by atlas-based methods and avoiding registration/normalization steps. This makes it convenient for massive multi-site neuroanatomical imaging studies. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to study subcortical structure segmentation on such large-scale and heterogeneous data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scaling up Education Reform: Addressing the Politics of Disparity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bishop, Russell; O'Sullivan, Dominic; Berryman, Mere

2010-01-01

What is school reform? What makes it sustainable? Who needs to be involved? How is scaling up achieved? This book is about the need for educational reforms that have built into them, from the outset, those elements that will see them sustained in the original sites and spread to others. Using the Te Kotahitanga Project as a model the authors…

Modelling evapotranspiration during precipitation deficits: Identifying critical processes in a land surface model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ukkola, Anna M.; Pitman, Andy J.; Decker, Mark

Surface fluxes from land surface models (LSMs) have traditionally been evaluated against monthly, seasonal or annual mean states. The limited ability of LSMs to reproduce observed evaporative fluxes under water-stressed conditions has been previously noted, but very few studies have systematically evaluated these models during rainfall deficits. We evaluated latent heat fluxes simulated by the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) LSM across 20 flux tower sites at sub-annual to inter-annual timescales, in particular focusing on model performance during seasonal-scale rainfall deficits. The importance of key model processes in capturing the latent heat flux was explored by employing alternative representations of hydrology, leafmore » area index, soil properties and stomatal conductance. We found that the representation of hydrological processes was critical for capturing observed declines in latent heat during rainfall deficits. By contrast, the effects of soil properties, LAI and stomatal conductance were highly site-specific. Whilst the standard model performs reasonably well at annual scales as measured by common metrics, it grossly underestimates latent heat during rainfall deficits. A new version of CABLE, with a more physically consistent representation of hydrology, captures the variation in the latent heat flux during seasonal-scale rainfall deficits better than earlier versions, but remaining biases point to future research needs. Lastly, our results highlight the importance of evaluating LSMs under water-stressed conditions and across multiple plant functional types and climate regimes.« less

Modelling evapotranspiration during precipitation deficits: Identifying critical processes in a land surface model

DOE PAGES

Ukkola, Anna M.; Pitman, Andy J.; Decker, Mark; ...

2016-06-21

Surface fluxes from land surface models (LSMs) have traditionally been evaluated against monthly, seasonal or annual mean states. The limited ability of LSMs to reproduce observed evaporative fluxes under water-stressed conditions has been previously noted, but very few studies have systematically evaluated these models during rainfall deficits. We evaluated latent heat fluxes simulated by the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) LSM across 20 flux tower sites at sub-annual to inter-annual timescales, in particular focusing on model performance during seasonal-scale rainfall deficits. The importance of key model processes in capturing the latent heat flux was explored by employing alternative representations of hydrology, leafmore » area index, soil properties and stomatal conductance. We found that the representation of hydrological processes was critical for capturing observed declines in latent heat during rainfall deficits. By contrast, the effects of soil properties, LAI and stomatal conductance were highly site-specific. Whilst the standard model performs reasonably well at annual scales as measured by common metrics, it grossly underestimates latent heat during rainfall deficits. A new version of CABLE, with a more physically consistent representation of hydrology, captures the variation in the latent heat flux during seasonal-scale rainfall deficits better than earlier versions, but remaining biases point to future research needs. Lastly, our results highlight the importance of evaluating LSMs under water-stressed conditions and across multiple plant functional types and climate regimes.« less

Spatial games with cyclic interactions: the response of empty sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Bart; Pleimling, Michel

2015-03-01

Predator-prey models of the May-Leonard family employ empty sites in a spatial setting as an intermediate step in the reproduction process. This requirement makes the number and arrangement of empty sites important to the formation of space-time patterns. We study the density of empty sites in a stochastic predator-prey model in which the species compete in a cyclic way in two dimensions. In some cases systems of this type quickly form domains of neutral species after which all predation, and therefore, reproduction occur near the interface of competing domains. Using Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the relationship of this density of empty sites to the time-dependent domain length. We further explore the dynamics by introducing perturbations to the interaction rates of the system after which we measure the perturbed density, i.e. the response of empty sites, as the system relaxes. A dynamical scaling behavior is observed in the response of empty sites. This work is supported by the US National Science Foundation through Grant DMR-1205309.

Evaluating the efficacy of a landscape scale feral cat control program using camera traps and occupancy models.

PubMed

Comer, Sarah; Speldewinde, Peter; Tiller, Cameron; Clausen, Lucy; Pinder, Jeff; Cowen, Saul; Algar, Dave

2018-03-28

The impact of introduced predators is a major factor limiting survivorship and recruitment of many native Australian species. In particular, the feral cat and red fox have been implicated in range reductions and population declines of many conservation dependent species across Australia, including ground-nesting birds and small to medium-sized mammals. The impact of predation by feral cats since their introduction some 200 years ago has altered the structure of native fauna communities and led to the development of landscape-scale threat abatement via baiting programs with the feral cat bait, Eradicat. Demonstrating the effectiveness of broad-scale programs is essential for managers to fine tune delivery and timing of baiting. Efficacy of feral cat baiting at the Fortescue Marsh in the Pilbara, Western Australia was tested using camera traps and occupancy models. There was a significant decrease in probability of site occupancy in baited sites in each of the five years of this study, demonstrating both the effectiveness of aerial baiting for landscape-scale removal of feral cats, and the validity of camera trap monitoring techniques for detecting changes in feral cat occupancy during a five-year baiting program.

Natural Tracers and Multi-Scale Assessment of Caprock Sealing Behavior: A Case Study of the Kirtland Formation, San Juan Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jason Heath; Brian McPherson; Thomas Dewers

The assessment of caprocks for geologic CO{sub 2} storage is a multi-scale endeavor. Investigation of a regional caprock - the Kirtland Formation, San Juan Basin, USA - at the pore-network scale indicates high capillary sealing capacity and low permeabilities. Core and wellscale data, however, indicate a potential seal bypass system as evidenced by multiple mineralized fractures and methane gas saturations within the caprock. Our interpretation of {sup 4}He concentrations, measured at the top and bottom of the caprock, suggests low fluid fluxes through the caprock: (1) Of the total {sup 4}He produced in situ (i.e., at the locations of sampling)more » by uranium and thorium decay since deposition of the Kirtland Formation, a large portion still resides in the pore fluids. (2) Simple advection-only and advection-diffusion models, using the measured {sup 4}He concentrations, indicate low permeability ({approx}10-20 m{sup 2} or lower) for the thickness of the Kirtland Formation. These findings, however, do not guarantee the lack of a large-scale bypass system. The measured data, located near the boundary conditions of the models (i.e., the overlying and underlying aquifers), limit our testing of conceptual models and the sensitivity of model parameterization. Thus, we suggest approaches for future studies to better assess the presence or lack of a seal bypass system at this particular site and for other sites in general.« less

Local and landscape scale factors influencing edge effects on woodland salamanders.

PubMed

Moseley, Kurtis R; Ford, W Mark; Edwards, John W

2009-04-01

We examined local and landscape-scale variable influence on the depth and magnitude of edge effects on woodland salamanders in mature mixed mesophytic and northern hardwood forest adjacent to natural gas well sites maintained as wildlife openings. We surveyed woodland salamander occurrence from June-August 2006 at 33 gas well sites in the Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia. We used an information-theoretic approach to test nine a priori models explaining landscape-scale effects on woodland salamander capture proportion within 20 m of field edge. Salamander capture proportion was greater within 0-60 m than 61-100 m of field edges. Similarly, available coarse woody debris proportion was greater within 0-60 m than 61-100 m of field edge. Our ASPECT model, that incorporated the single variable aspect, received the strongest support for explaining landscape-scale effects on salamander capture proportion within 20 m of opening edge. The ASPECT model indicated that fewer salamanders occurred within 20 m of opening edges on drier, hotter southwestern aspects than in moister, cooler northeastern aspects. Our results suggest that forest habitat adjacent to maintained edges and with sufficient cover still can provide suitable habitat for woodland salamander species in central Appalachian mixed mesophytic and northern hardwood forests. Additionally, our modeling results support the contention that edge effects are more severe on southwesterly aspects. These results underscore the importance of distinguishing among different edge types as well as placing survey locations within a landscape context when investigating edge impacts on woodland salamanders.

A Model-based Approach to Scaling GPP and NPP in Support of MODIS Land Product Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, D. P.; Cohen, W. B.; Gower, S. T.; Ritts, W. D.

2003-12-01

Global products from the Earth-orbiting MODIS sensor include land cover, leaf area index (LAI), FPAR, 8-day gross primary production (GPP), and annual net primary production (NPP) at the 1 km spatial resolution. The BigFoot Project was designed specifically to validate MODIS land products, and has initiated ground measurements at 9 sites representing a wide array of vegetation types. An ecosystem process model (Biome-BGC) is used to generate estimates of GPP and NPP for each 5 km x 5 km BigFoot site. Model inputs include land cover and LAI (from Landsat ETM+), daily meteorological data (from a centrally located eddy covariance flux tower), and soil characteristics. Model derived outputs are validated against field-measured NPP and flux tower-derived GPP. The resulting GPP and NPP estimates are then aggregated to the 1 km resolution for direct spatial comparison with corresponding MODIS products. At the high latitude sites (tundra and boreal forest), the MODIS GPP phenology closely tracks the BigFoot GPP, but there is a high bias in the MODIS GPP. In the temperate zone sites, problems with the timing and magnitude of the MODIS FPAR introduce differences in MODIS GPP compared to the validation data at some sites. However, the MODIS LAI/FPAR data are currently being reprocessed (=Collection 4) and new comparisons will be made for 2002. The BigFoot scaling approach permits precise overlap in spatial and temporal resolution between the MODIS products and BigFoot products, and thus permits the evaluation of specific components of the MODIS NPP algorithm. These components include meteorological inputs from the NASA Data Assimilation Office, LAI and FPAR from other MODIS algorithms, and biome-specific parameters for base respiration rate and light use efficiency.

Atmospheric studies in complex terrain: a planning guide for future studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orgill, M.M.

The objective of this study is to assist the US Department of Energy in Conducting its atmospheric studies in complex terrain (ASCOT0 by defining various complex terrain research systems and relating these options to specific landforms sites. This includes: (1) reviewing past meteorological and diffusion research on complex terrain; (2) relating specific terrain-induced airflow phenomena to specific landforms and time and space scales; (3) evaluating the technical difficulty of modeling and measuring terrain-induced airflow phenomena; and (4) avolving severdal research options and proposing candidate sites for continuing and expanding field and modeling work. To evolve research options using variable candidatemore » sites, four areas were considered: site selection, terrain uniqueness and quantification, definition of research problems and research plans. 36 references, 111 figures, 20 tables.« less

Surface-subsurface flow modeling: an example of large-scale research at the new NEON user facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, H.; McKnight, D. M.

2009-12-01

Climate change is predicted to alter surface-subsurface interactions in freshwater ecosystems. These interactions are hypothesized to control nutrient release at diel and seasonal time scales, which may then exert control over epilithic algal growth rates. The mechanisms underlying shifts in complex physical-chemical-biological patterns can be elucidated by long-term observations at sites that span hydrologic and climate gradients across the continent. Development of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) will provide researchers the opportunity to investigate continental-scale patterns by combining investigator-driven measurements with Observatory data. NEON is a national-scale research platform for analyzing and understanding the impacts of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species on ecology. NEON features sensor networks and experiments, linked by advanced cyberinfrastructure to record and archive ecological data for at least 30 years. NEON partitions the United States into 20 ecoclimatic domains. Each domain hosts one fully instrumented Core Aquatic site in a wildland area and one Relocatable site, which aims to capture ecologically significant gradients (e.g. landuse, nitrogen deposition, urbanization). In the current definition of NEON there are 36 Aquatic sites: 30 streams/rivers and 6 ponds/lakes. Each site includes automated, in-situ sensors for groundwater elevation and temperature; stream flow (discharge and stage); pond water elevation; atmospheric chemistry (Tair, barometric pressure, PAR, radiation); and surface water chemistry (DO, Twater, conductivity, pH, turbidity, cDOM, nutrients). Groundwater and surface water sites shall be regularly sampled for selected chemical and isotopic parameters. The hydrologic and geochemical monitoring design provides basic information on water and chemical fluxes in streams and ponds and between groundwater and surface water, which is intended to support investigator-driven modeling studies. Theoretical constructs, such as the River Continuum Concept, that aim to elucidate general mechanistic underpinnings of freshwater ecosystem function via testable hypotheses about relative rates of photosynthesis and respiration, for example, may be readily examined using data collected at hourly time scales at the NEON facility once constructed. By taking advantage of NEON data and adding PI-driven research to the Observatory, we can further our understanding of the relative roles of water flow, nutrients, temperature, and light on freshwater ecosystem function and structure.

Use of a handheld low-cost sensor to explore the effect of urban design features on local-scale spatial and temporal air quality variability.

PubMed

Miskell, Georgia; Salmond, Jennifer A; Williams, David E

2018-04-01

Portable low-cost instruments have been validated and used to measure ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) at multiple sites over a small urban area with 20min time resolution. We use these results combined with land use regression (LUR) and rank correlation methods to explore the effects of traffic, urban design features, and local meteorology and atmosphere chemistry on small-scale spatio-temporal variations. We measured NO 2 at 45 sites around the downtown area of Vancouver, BC, in spring 2016, and constructed four different models: i) a model based on averaging concentrations observed at each site over the whole measurement period, and separate temporal models for ii) morning, iii) midday, and iv) afternoon. Redesign of the temporal models using the average model predictors as constants gave three 'hybrid' models that used both spatial and temporal variables. These accounted for approximately 50% of the total variation with mean absolute error±5ppb. Ranking sites by concentration and by change in concentration across the day showed a shift of high NO 2 concentrations across the central city from morning to afternoon. Locations could be identified in which NO 2 concentration was determined by the geography of the site, and others as ones in which the concentration changed markedly from morning to afternoon indicating the importance of temporal controls. Rank correlation results complemented LUR in identifying significant urban design variables that impacted NO 2 concentration. High variability across a relatively small space was partially described by predictor variables related to traffic (bus stop density, speed limits, traffic counts, distance to traffic lights), atmospheric chemistry (ozone, dew point), and environment (land use, trees). A high-density network recording continuously would be needed fully to capture local variations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

THM large spatial-temporal model to simulate the past 2 Ma hydrogeological evolution of Paris Basin including natural tracer transport as part of site characterization for radwaste repository project Cigéo - France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benabderrahmane, A., Sr.

2017-12-01

Hydrogeological site characterization for deep geological high level and intermediate level long lived radioactive waste repository cover a large time scale needed for safety analysis and calculation. Hydrogeological performance of a site relies also on the effects of geodynamic evolution as tectonic uplift, erosion/sedimentation and climate including glaciation on the groundwater flow and solute and heat transfer. Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical model of multilayered aquifer system of Paris Basin is developed to reproduce the present time flow and the natural tracer (Helium) concentration profiles based on the last 2 Ma of geodynamic evolution. Present time geological conceptual model consist of 27 layers at Paris Basin (Triassic-Tertiary) with refinement at project site scale (29 layers from Triassic to Portlandian). Target layers are the clay host formation of Callovo-Oxfrodian age (160 Ma) and the surrounding aquifer layers of Oxfordian and Dogger. Modelled processes are: groundwater flow, heat and solutes (natural tracers) transport, freezing and thawing of groundwater (expansion and retreat of permafrost), deformation of the multilayered aquifer system induced by differential tectonic uplift and the hydro-mechanical stress effect as caused by erosion of the outcropping layers. Numerical simulation considers a period from 2 Ma BP and up to the present. Transient boundary conditions are governed by geodynamic processes: (i) modification of the geometry of the basin and (ii) temperatures along the topography will change according to a series of 15 identical climate cycles with multiple permafrost (glaciation) periods. Numerical model contains 71 layers and 18 million cells. The solution procedure solves three coupled systems of equations, head, temperature and concentrations, by the use of a finite difference method, and by applying extensive parallel processing. The major modelling results related to the processes of importance for site characterization as hydraulic head distribution, flow velocity, heat and natural tracer transport impacted by geodynamic past evolution are discussed.

Is substrate composition a suitable predictor for deep-water coral occurrence on fine scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennecke, Swaantje; Metaxas, Anna

2017-06-01

Species distribution modelling can be applied to identify potentially suitable habitat for species with largely unknown distributions, such as many deep-water corals. Important variables influencing species occurrence in the deep sea, e.g. substrate composition, are often not included in these modelling approaches because high-resolution data are unavailable. We investigated the relationship between substrate composition and the occurrence of the two deep-water octocoral species Primnoa resedaeformis and Paragorgia arborea, which require hard substrate for attachment. On a scale of 10s of metres, we analysed images of the seafloor taken at two locations inside the Northeast Channel Coral Conservation Area in the Northwest Atlantic. We interpolated substrate composition over the sampling areas and determined the contribution of substrate classes, depth and slope to describe habitat suitability using maximum entropy modelling (Maxent). Substrate composition was similar at both sites - dominated by pebbles in a matrix of sand (>80%) with low percentages of suitable substrate for coral occurrence. Coral abundance was low at site 1 (0.9 colonies of P. resedaeformis per 100 m2) and high at site 2 (63 colonies of P. resedaeformis per 100 m2) indicating that substrate alone is not sufficient to explain varying patterns in coral occurrence. Spatial interpolations of substrate classes revealed the difficulty to accurately resolve sparsely distributed boulders (3-5% of substrate). Boulders were by far the most important variable in the habitat suitability model (HSM) for P. resedaeformis at site 1, indicating the fundamental influence of a substrate class that is the least abundant. At site 2, HSMs identified cobbles and sand/pebble as the most important variables for habitat suitability. However, substrate classes were correlated making it difficult to determine the influence of individual variables. To provide accurate information on habitat suitability for the two coral species, substrate composition needs to be quantified so that small fractions (<20% contribution of certain substrate class) of suitable substrate are resolved. While the collection and analysis of high-resolution data is costly and spatially limited, the required resolution is unlikely to be achieved in coarse-scale interpolations of substrate data.

Catchment-scale modeling of nitrogen dynamics in a temperate forested watershed, Oregon. An interdisciplinary communication strategy.

Treesearch

Kellie Vache; Lutz Breuer; Julia Jones; Phil Sollins

2015-01-01

We present a systems modeling approach to the development of a place-based ecohydrological model. The conceptual model is calibrated to a variety of existing observations, taken in watershed 10 (WS10) at the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) in Oregon, USA, a long term ecological research (LTER) site with a long history of catchment-...

Efficiency of small scale carbon mitigation by patch iron fertilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarmiento, J. L.; Slater, R. D.; Dunne, J.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Hiscock, M. R.

2009-11-01

While nutrient depletion scenarios have long shown that the high-latitude High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) regions are the most effective for sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide, recent simulations with prognostic biogeochemical models have suggested that only a fraction of the potential drawdown can be realized. We use a global ocean biogeochemical general circulation model developed at GFDL and Princeton to examine this and related issues. We fertilize two patches in the North and Equatorial Pacific, and two additional patches in the Southern Ocean HNLC region north of the biogeochemical divide and in the Ross Sea south of the biogeochemical divide. We obtain by far the greatest response to iron fertilization at the Ross Sea site. Here the CO2 remains sequestered on century time-scales and the efficiency of fertilization remains almost constant no matter how frequently iron is applied as long as it is confined to the growing season. The second most efficient site is in the Southern Ocean. Here the biological response to iron fertilization is comparable to the Ross Sea, but the enhanced biological uptake of CO2 is more spread out in the vertical and thus less effective at leading to removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. The North Pacific site has lower initial nutrients and thus a lower efficiency. Fertilization of the Equatorial Pacific leads to an expansion of the suboxic zone and a striking increase in denitrification that causes a sharp reduction in overall surface biological export production and CO2 uptake. The impacts on the oxygen distribution and surface biological export are less prominent at other sites, but nevertheless still a source of concern. The century time scale retention of iron in these models greatly increases the long-term biological response to iron addition as compared with models in which the added iron is rapidly scavenged from the ocean.

Evaluation of simulations to understand effects of groundwater development and artificial recharge on the surface water and riparian vegetation Sierra Vista subwatershed, Upper San Pedro Basin, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leake, Stanley A.; Gungle, Bruce

2012-01-01

In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey documented a five-layer groundwater flow model of the Sierra Vista and Sonoran subwatersheds of the Upper San Pedro Basin. The model has been applied by a private consultant to evaluate the effects of projected groundwater pumping through 2105 and effects of artificial recharge at three near-stream sites for 2012-2111. The main concern regarding simulations of long-term groundwater pumping is the effect of artificial model boundaries on modeled response, particularly for pumping near Cananea, Sonora, Mexico, which is adjacent to an artificial no-flow boundary. Concerns regarding the simulations of the effects of artificial recharge near streams include the resolution of the model and the representation of the model properties at the site scale; a possible limited ability of the model to correctly apportion recharge response between increased streamflow and increased evapotranspiration; a limited ability of the model to simulate detailed geometries of artificial recharge areas and evapotranspiration areas; and stream locations with the 820-foot grid spacing of the basin-scale model. In spite of these concerns, use of the U.S. Geological Survey five-layer groundwater flow model by the consultant are reasonable and valid.

A Multiple-Item Scale for Assessing E-Government Service Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadomichelaki, Xenia; Mentzas, Gregoris

A critical element in the evolution of e-governmental services is the development of sites that better serve the citizens’ needs. To deliver superior service quality, we must first understand how citizens perceive and evaluate online citizen service. This involves defining what e-government service quality is, identifying its underlying dimensions, and determining how it can be conceptualized and measured. In this article we conceptualise an e-government service quality model (e-GovQual) and then we develop, refine, validate, confirm and test a multiple-item scale for measuring e-government service quality for public administration sites where citizens seek either information or services.

Mesoscale carbon sequestration site screening and CCS infrastructure analysis.

PubMed

Keating, Gordon N; Middleton, Richard S; Stauffer, Philip H; Viswanathan, Hari S; Letellier, Bruce C; Pasqualini, Donatella; Pawar, Rajesh J; Wolfsberg, Andrew V

2011-01-01

We explore carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) at the meso-scale, a level of study between regional carbon accounting and highly detailed reservoir models for individual sites. We develop an approach to CO(2) sequestration site screening for industries or energy development policies that involves identification of appropriate sequestration basin, analysis of geologic formations, definition of surface sites, design of infrastructure, and analysis of CO(2) transport and storage costs. Our case study involves carbon management for potential oil shale development in the Piceance-Uinta Basin, CO and UT. This study uses new capabilities of the CO(2)-PENS model for site screening, including reservoir capacity, injectivity, and cost calculations for simple reservoirs at multiple sites. We couple this with a model of optimized source-sink-network infrastructure (SimCCS) to design pipeline networks and minimize CCS cost for a given industry or region. The CLEAR(uff) dynamical assessment model calculates the CO(2) source term for various oil production levels. Nine sites in a 13,300 km(2) area have the capacity to store 6.5 GtCO(2), corresponding to shale-oil production of 1.3 Mbbl/day for 50 years (about 1/4 of U.S. crude oil production). Our results highlight the complex, nonlinear relationship between the spatial deployment of CCS infrastructure and the oil-shale production rate.

A multi-scale comparison of modeled and observed seasonal methane emissions in northern wetlands

DOE PAGES

Xu, Xiyan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.; ...

2016-09-13

Wetlands are the largest global natural methane (CH 4) source, and emissions between 50 and 70° N latitude contribute 10-30 % to this source. Predictive capability of land models for northern wetland CH 4 emissions is still low due to limited site measurements, strong spatial and temporal variability in emissions, and complex hydrological and biogeochemical dynamics. To explore this issue, we compare wetland CH 4 emission predictions from the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM4.5-BGC) with site- to regional-scale observations. A comparison of the CH 4 fluxes with eddy flux data highlighted needed changes to the model's estimate of aerenchyma area,more » which we implemented and tested. The model modification substantially reduced biases in CH 4 emissions when compared with CarbonTracker CH 4 predictions. CLM4.5 CH 4 emission predictions agree well with growing season (May–September) CarbonTracker Alaskan regional-level CH 4 predictions and site-level observations. However, CLM4.5 underestimated CH 4 emissions in the cold season (October–April). The monthly atmospheric CH 4 mole fraction enhancements due to wetland emissions are also assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (WRF-STILT) model coupled with daily emissions from CLM4.5 and compared with aircraft CH 4 mole fraction measurements from the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) campaign. Both the tower and aircraft analyses confirm the underestimate of cold-season CH 4 emissions by CLM4.5. The greatest uncertainties in predicting the seasonal CH 4 cycle are from the wetland extent, cold-season CH 4 production and CH 4 transport processes. We recommend more cold-season experimental studies in high-latitude systems, which could improve the understanding and parameterization of ecosystem structure and function during this period. Predicted CH 4 emissions remain uncertain, but we show here that benchmarking against observations across spatial scales can inform model structural and parameter improvements.« less

A multi-scale comparison of modeled and observed seasonal methane emissions in northern wetlands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Xiyan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.

Wetlands are the largest global natural methane (CH 4) source, and emissions between 50 and 70° N latitude contribute 10-30 % to this source. Predictive capability of land models for northern wetland CH 4 emissions is still low due to limited site measurements, strong spatial and temporal variability in emissions, and complex hydrological and biogeochemical dynamics. To explore this issue, we compare wetland CH 4 emission predictions from the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM4.5-BGC) with site- to regional-scale observations. A comparison of the CH 4 fluxes with eddy flux data highlighted needed changes to the model's estimate of aerenchyma area,more » which we implemented and tested. The model modification substantially reduced biases in CH 4 emissions when compared with CarbonTracker CH 4 predictions. CLM4.5 CH 4 emission predictions agree well with growing season (May–September) CarbonTracker Alaskan regional-level CH 4 predictions and site-level observations. However, CLM4.5 underestimated CH 4 emissions in the cold season (October–April). The monthly atmospheric CH 4 mole fraction enhancements due to wetland emissions are also assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (WRF-STILT) model coupled with daily emissions from CLM4.5 and compared with aircraft CH 4 mole fraction measurements from the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) campaign. Both the tower and aircraft analyses confirm the underestimate of cold-season CH 4 emissions by CLM4.5. The greatest uncertainties in predicting the seasonal CH 4 cycle are from the wetland extent, cold-season CH 4 production and CH 4 transport processes. We recommend more cold-season experimental studies in high-latitude systems, which could improve the understanding and parameterization of ecosystem structure and function during this period. Predicted CH 4 emissions remain uncertain, but we show here that benchmarking against observations across spatial scales can inform model structural and parameter improvements.« less

A method for deterministic statistical downscaling of daily precipitation at a monsoonal site in Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yonghe; Feng, Jinming; Liu, Xiu; Zhao, Yadi

2017-12-01

Statistical downscaling (SD) is a method that acquires the local information required for hydrological impact assessment from large-scale atmospheric variables. Very few statistical and deterministic downscaling models for daily precipitation have been conducted for local sites influenced by the East Asian monsoon. In this study, SD models were constructed by selecting the best predictors and using generalized linear models (GLMs) for Feixian, a site in the Yishu River Basin and Shandong Province. By calculating and mapping Spearman rank correlation coefficients between the gridded standardized values of five large-scale variables and daily observed precipitation, different cyclonic circulation patterns were found for monsoonal precipitation in summer (June-September) and winter (November-December and January-March); the values of the gridded boxes with the highest absolute correlations for observed precipitation were selected as predictors. Data for predictors and predictands covered the period 1979-2015, and different calibration and validation periods were divided when fitting and validating the models. Meanwhile, the bootstrap method was also used to fit the GLM. All the above thorough validations indicated that the models were robust and not sensitive to different samples or different periods. Pearson's correlations between downscaled and observed precipitation (logarithmically transformed) on a daily scale reached 0.54-0.57 in summer and 0.56-0.61 in winter, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between downscaled and observed precipitation reached 0.1 in summer and 0.41 in winter. The downscaled precipitation partially reflected exact variations in winter and main trends in summer for total interannual precipitation. For the number of wet days, both winter and summer models were able to reflect interannual variations. Other comparisons were also made in this study. These results demonstrated that when downscaling, it is appropriate to combine a correlation-based predictor selection across a spatial domain with GLM modeling.

Three-dimensional displays for natural hazards analysis, using classified Landsat Thematic Mapper digital data and large-scale digital elevation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, David R.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Brown, Daniel G.

1991-01-01

Methods are described for using Landsat Thematic Mapper digital data and digital elevation models for the display of natural hazard sites in a mountainous region of northwestern Montana, USA. Hazard zones can be easily identified on the three-dimensional images. Proximity of facilities such as highways and building locations to hazard sites can also be easily displayed. A temporal sequence of Landsat TM (or similar) satellite data sets could also be used to display landscape changes associated with dynamic natural hazard processes.

Scaling of Sediment Dynamics in a Reach-Scale Laboratory Model of a Sand-Bed Stream with Riparian Vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorrick, S.; Rodriguez, J. F.

2011-12-01

A movable bed physical model was designed in a laboratory flume to simulate both bed and suspended load transport in a mildly sinuous sand-bed stream. Model simulations investigated the impact of different vegetation arrangements along the outer bank to evaluate rehabilitation options. Preserving similitude in the 1:16 laboratory model was very important. In this presentation the scaling approach, as well as the successes and challenges of the strategy are outlined. Firstly a near-bankfull flow event was chosen for laboratory simulation. In nature, bankfull events at the field site deposit new in-channel features but cause only small amounts of bank erosion. Thus the fixed banks in the model were not a drastic simplification. Next, and as in other studies, the flow velocity and turbulence measurements were collected in separate fixed bed experiments. The scaling of flow in these experiments was simply maintained by matching the Froude number and roughness levels. The subsequent movable bed experiments were then conducted under similar hydrodynamic conditions. In nature, the sand-bed stream is fairly typical; in high flows most sediment transport occurs in suspension and migrating dunes cover the bed. To achieve similar dynamics in the model equivalent values of the dimensionless bed shear stress and the particle Reynolds number were important. Close values of the two dimensionless numbers were achieved with lightweight sediments (R=0.3) including coal and apricot pips with a particle size distribution similar to that of the field site. Overall the moveable bed experiments were able to replicate the dominant sediment dynamics present in the stream during a bankfull flow and yielded relevant information for the analysis of the effects of riparian vegetation. There was a potential conflict in the strategy, in that grain roughness was exaggerated with respect to nature. The advantage of this strategy is that although grain roughness is exaggerated, the similarity of bedforms and resulting drag can return similar levels of roughness to those in the field site.

A methodology for ecosystem-scale modeling of selenium

USGS Publications Warehouse

Presser, T.S.; Luoma, S.N.

2010-01-01

The main route of exposure for selenium (Se) is dietary, yet regulations lack biologically based protocols for evaluations of risk. We propose here an ecosystem-scale model that conceptualizes and quantifies the variables that determinehow Se is processed from water through diet to predators. This approach uses biogeochemical and physiological factors from laboratory and field studies and considers loading, speciation, transformation to particulate material, bioavailability, bioaccumulation in invertebrates, and trophic transfer to predators. Validation of the model is through data sets from 29 historic and recent field case studies of Se-exposed sites. The model links Se concentrations across media (water, particulate, tissue of different food web species). It can be used to forecast toxicity under different management or regulatory proposals or as a methodology for translating a fish-tissue (or other predator tissue) Se concentration guideline to a dissolved Se concentration. The model illustrates some critical aspects of implementing a tissue criterion: 1) the choice of fish species determines the food web through which Se should be modeled, 2) the choice of food web is critical because the particulate material to prey kinetics of bioaccumulation differs widely among invertebrates, 3) the characterization of the type and phase of particulate material is important to quantifying Se exposure to prey through the base of the food web, and 4) the metric describing partitioning between particulate material and dissolved Se concentrations allows determination of a site-specific dissolved Se concentration that would be responsible for that fish body burden in the specific environment. The linked approach illustrates that environmentally safe dissolved Se concentrations will differ among ecosystems depending on the ecological pathways and biogeochemical conditions in that system. Uncertainties and model sensitivities can be directly illustrated by varying exposure scenarios based on site-specific knowledge. The model can also be used to facilitate site-specific regulation and to present generic comparisons to illustrate limitations imposed by ecosystem setting and inhabitants. Used optimally, the model provides a tool for framing a site-specific ecological problem or occurrence of Se exposure, quantify exposure within that ecosystem, and narrow uncertainties abouthowto protect it by understanding the specifics of the underlying system ecology, biogeochemistry, and hydrology.?? 2010 SETAC.

A methodology for ecosystem-scale modeling of selenium.

PubMed

Presser, Theresa S; Luoma, Samuel N

2010-10-01

The main route of exposure for selenium (Se) is dietary, yet regulations lack biologically based protocols for evaluations of risk. We propose here an ecosystem-scale model that conceptualizes and quantifies the variables that determine how Se is processed from water through diet to predators. This approach uses biogeochemical and physiological factors from laboratory and field studies and considers loading, speciation, transformation to particulate material, bioavailability, bioaccumulation in invertebrates, and trophic transfer to predators. Validation of the model is through data sets from 29 historic and recent field case studies of Se-exposed sites. The model links Se concentrations across media (water, particulate, tissue of different food web species). It can be used to forecast toxicity under different management or regulatory proposals or as a methodology for translating a fish-tissue (or other predator tissue) Se concentration guideline to a dissolved Se concentration. The model illustrates some critical aspects of implementing a tissue criterion: 1) the choice of fish species determines the food web through which Se should be modeled, 2) the choice of food web is critical because the particulate material to prey kinetics of bioaccumulation differs widely among invertebrates, 3) the characterization of the type and phase of particulate material is important to quantifying Se exposure to prey through the base of the food web, and 4) the metric describing partitioning between particulate material and dissolved Se concentrations allows determination of a site-specific dissolved Se concentration that would be responsible for that fish body burden in the specific environment. The linked approach illustrates that environmentally safe dissolved Se concentrations will differ among ecosystems depending on the ecological pathways and biogeochemical conditions in that system. Uncertainties and model sensitivities can be directly illustrated by varying exposure scenarios based on site-specific knowledge. The model can also be used to facilitate site-specific regulation and to present generic comparisons to illustrate limitations imposed by ecosystem setting and inhabitants. Used optimally, the model provides a tool for framing a site-specific ecological problem or occurrence of Se exposure, quantify exposure within that ecosystem, and narrow uncertainties about how to protect it by understanding the specifics of the underlying system ecology, biogeochemistry, and hydrology. © 2010 SETAC.

Informing Carbon Dynamics in the Community Land Model with Observations from Across Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, A. M.; Hoar, T. J.

2014-12-01

Correct simulation of carbon dynamics in Earth System Models is required to accurately predict both short and long-term land carbon-cycle climate and concentration feedbacks. As new model structures and parameterizations of increasing complexity are introduced there is an ever present need for data to inform these developments, either indirectly through benchmarking activities, or directly through model-data fusion techniques. Here we briefly describe a very rich source of data that will come from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), a continental-scale facility that will collect freely available biogeochemical and biophysical data from 60 sites representative of a full range of ecosystems across the USA over 30 years. Relevant data at each site include a full suite of micrometeorology measurements, profiles of CO2 and H2O vapor isotopes, soil temperature, moisture and CO2 flux, fine root images, and plot-based NPP, leaf area and litterfall estimates. This is accompanied by Lidar and hyperspectral derived biomass, leaf area and canopy chemistry at < 1m resolution of 100s km2. Critically, these observations are well calibrated and highly standardized across sites allowing comparisons, whilst plot and site selection has been designed to optimize representativeness and spatial scaling opportunities. To illustrate the potential utility of these data in constraining models, we show the range of Community Land Model (CLM) output at NEON site locations, and in model-space look at a number of different functional responses that characterize the model in space and time and could be tested with data. These observations can be used most directly through a data assimilation (DA) system and we demonstrate how we have developed support for CLM within the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) that uses ensemble techniques for state estimation. Using an observing system experiment, we investigate how infrequent observations of carbon stocks constrain model dynamics and how these observations types can be used with more frequently available flux and leaf area index observations. We demonstrate the use of the latter with real Ameriflux and MODIS data.

Geophysical constraints on contaminant transport modeling in a heterogeneous fluvial aquifer.

PubMed

Bowling, Jerry C; Zheng, Chunmiao; Rodriguez, Antonio B; Harry, Dennis L

2006-05-05

Approximately 3000 measurements of hydraulic conductivity in over 50 flowmeter boreholes were available at the Macro-Dispersion Experiment (MADE) site in Columbus, Mississippi, USA to quantify the heterogeneity in hydraulic conductivity at the site scale. This high-density measurement approach is perhaps infeasible for time and expense in typical groundwater remediation sites. A natural-gradient tracer experiment from the MADE site was simulated by a groundwater flow and solute transport model incorporating direct-current (DC) resistivity data collected over the observed plume location. Hydraulic conductivity from one borehole collected during the original site characterization was used to calibrate the electrical resistivity data to hydraulic conductivity using a previously derived log-log relationship. Application of this relationship, using site-specific empirical constants determined from the data, transforms the 3D electrical resistivity data into a 3D description of hydraulic conductivity that can be used in groundwater models. The validity of this approach was tested by using the geophysically derived hydraulic conductivity representation in numerical simulations of the natural-gradient tracer experiment. The agreement between the simulated and observed tracer plumes was quantified to gauge the effectiveness of geophysically derived and flowmeter based representations of the hydraulic conductivity field. This study demonstrates that a highly heterogeneous aquifer can be modeled with minimal hydrological data supplemented with geophysical data at least as well as previous models of the site using purely hydrologic data.

Fine Scale Modeling and Forecasts of Upper Atmospheric Turbulence for Operational Use

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-30

Weather Center Digital Data Service (ADDS) fhttp://www.aviationweather.gov/adds, http://weather.aero/1 Graphical Turbulence Guidance product, GTG -2.5...analysis GTG - Graphical Turbulence Guidance HRMM - High Resolution Mesoscale/Microscale ICD - Interface Control Document IDE - Integrated Development...site (with GTG 2.5 data) http://www.aviationweather.gov/turbuience • ADDS Experimental site http://weather.aero/ • NCEP FNL data - http

Integrated experimental and modeling assessment of potential effects of gas leakages on groundwater composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berta, Marton; Dethlefsen, Frank; Ebert, Markus; Schäfer, Dirk

2017-04-01

Storing renewably produced energy is one of the major challenges for the energy systems of the upcoming decades. Power-to-gas technologies coupled to geological storage of compressed air, methane, and hydrogen offer a comparatively safe and cost-efficient way for large-scale energy storage. However, the stored gases can potentially escape from their geological reservoir and may thus affect protected natural goods such as groundwater. The geochemical reactions responsible for these composition changes are usually investigated separately in experiments and numerical models. Here we present the outcomes of an integrated experimental and modeling approach through the example of a compressed air leakage scenario. A main consequence of the presence of oxygen to be assessed in an aquifer is pyrite oxidation, well known from acid mine drainage sites. However, in contrast to acid mine drainage sites exhibiting unsaturated sediments and fed by meteoric low-carbonate water, aquifers such as in Northern Germany contain a considerable amount of solid and dissolved inorganic carbon species potentially buffering pH changes. High pressure flow-through column experiments representing an intrusion of compressed air into an aquifer were carried out to quantify pyrite oxidation kinetics and to incorporate the observations into a descriptive reaction model. Surface passivation was found to decrease the reactivity of pyrite by more than 90% after a few months of experimental run time. We propose that the carbonate buffer system enables the precipitation of a passivating mineral layer on the pyrite surface reducing the overall reaction rate significantly. Consequently, an established rate law from the literature was extended by a reactive surface passivation term[1]. This improved reaction rate equation was incorporated into a 3D numerical model using OpenGeoSys with parameters representing similarly typical aquifer conditions the experiments had characterized. These boundaries include pyrite content, oxygen dissolution kinetics, groundwater composition including the carbonate buffer, and diffusive and advective transport parameters. The results of site-scale multiphase reactive transport modeling revealed the expected spatial distribution of redox-sensitive species such as oxygen, pyrite, and sulfate in an aquifer following a leakage. The changes in concentration of sulfate, dissolved oxygen, and H+ observed in the lab-scale experiments were qualitatively reproduced by the models applying the same boundary conditions on a site-scale. This integrated study acknowledged that the combination of experiments and models is a powerful tool to prognose the geochemical consequences of gas leakage on site scale. However, it is yet unknown how the passivation would be effected if the carbonate buffer depleted on the long term and under what circumstances a transition from the passivating pyrite oxidation process to the non-passivating process observed for instance in acid mine drainage setups occurs. These restrictions mark the limits of validity of our experimental and modeling concept. This conclusion suggests the feasibility of the presented integrated approach also when evaluating comparable scenarios on methane and hydrogen storage based on experimental results gathered similarly[2]. [1]Berta et al. Environ Earth Sci (2016) 75:1175, DOI 10.1007/s12665-016-5985-7. [2]Berta et al. First Break (2015) 33,93-95, ISSN 1365-2397. This work is part of the ANGUS+ project funded by the BMBF-FK03EK3022.

Site Preference of Ternary Alloying Additions to AuTi

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bozzolo, Guillermo; Mosca, Hugo O.; Noebe, Ronald D.

2006-01-01

Atomistic modeling of the site substitution behavior of several alloying additions, namely. Na, Mg, Al, Si. Sc, V, Cr, Mn. Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Y, Zr. Nb, Mo, Tc, Ru, Rh, Pd, Ag, Cd, Hf, Ta, W, Re, Os, Ir, and Pt in B2 TiAu is reported. The 30 elements can be grouped according to their absolute preference for a specific site, regardless of concentration, or preference for available sites in the deficient sublattice. Results of large scale simulations are also presented, distinguishing between additions that remain in solution from those that precipitate a second phase.

Application of Watershed Scale Models to Predict Nitrogen Loading From Coastal Plain Watersheds

Treesearch

George M. Chescheir; Glenn P Fernandez; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya

2004-01-01

DRAINMOD-based watershed models have been developed and tested using data collected from an intensively instrumented research site on Kendricks Creek watershed near Plymouth. NC. These models were applied to simulate the hydrology and nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N) loading from two other watersheds in the Coastal Plain of North Carolina, the 11600 ha Chicod Creek watershed...

Development of a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for lakes to assess lake restoration effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Mengjia; Zou, Changxin; Zhao, Yanwei

2017-04-01

Environmental/ecological models are widely used for lake management as they provide a means to understand physical, chemical and biological processes in highly complex ecosystems. Most research focused on the development of environmental (water quality) and ecological models, separately. Limited studies were developed to couple the two models, and in these limited coupled models, a lake was regarded as a whole for analysis (i.e., considering the lake to be one well-mixed box), which was appropriate for small-scale lakes and was not sufficient to capture spatial variations within middle-scale or large-scale lakes. This paper seeks to establish a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for a lake. The Baiyangdian Lake, the largest freshwater lake in Northern China, was adopted as the study case. The coupled lake models including a hydrodynamics and water quality model established by MIKE21 and a compartmental ecological model used STELLA software have been established for middle-sized Baiyangdian Lake to realize the simulation of spatial variations of ecological conditions. On the basis of the flow field distribution results generated by MIKE21 hydrodynamics model, four water area zones were used as an example for compartmental ecological model calibration and validation. The results revealed that the developed coupled lake models can reasonably reflected the changes of the key state variables although there remain some state variables that are not well represented by the model due to the low quality of field monitoring data. Monitoring sites in a compartment may not be representative of the water quality and ecological conditions in the entire compartment even though that is the intention of compartment-based model design. There was only one ecological observation from a single monitoring site for some periods. This single-measurement issue may cause large discrepancies particularly when sampled site is not representative of the whole compartment. The coupled models have been applied to simulate the spatial variation trends of ecological condition under ecological water supplement as an example to reflect the application effect in lake restoration and management. The simulation results indicate that the models can provide a useful tool for lake restoration and management. The simulated spatial variation trends can provide a foundation for establishing permissible ranges for a selected set of water quality indices for a series of management measures such as watershed pollution load control and ecological water transfer. Meanwhile, the coupled models can help us to understand processes taking place and the relations of interaction between components in the lake ecosystem and external conditions. Taken together, the proposed models we established show some promising applications as middle-scale or large-scale lake management tools for pollution load control and ecological water transfer. These tools quantify the implications of proposed future water management decisions.

Inverse modeling of BTEX dissolution and biodegradation at the Bemidji, MN crude-oil spill site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Essaid, H.I.; Cozzarelli, I.M.; Eganhouse, R.P.; Herkelrath, W.N.; Bekins, B.A.; Delin, G.N.

2003-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) solute transport and biodegradation code BIOMOC was used in conjunction with the USGS universal inverse modeling code UCODE to quantify field-scale hydrocarbon dissolution and biodegradation at the USGS Toxic Substances Hydrology Program crude-oil spill research site located near Bemidji, MN. This inverse modeling effort used the extensive historical data compiled at the Bemidji site from 1986 to 1997 and incorporated a multicomponent transport and biodegradation model. Inverse modeling was successful when coupled transport and degradation processes were incorporated into the model and a single dissolution rate coefficient was used for all BTEX components. Assuming a stationary oil body, we simulated benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m,p-xylene, and o-xylene (BTEX) concentrations in the oil and ground water, respectively, as well as dissolved oxygen. Dissolution from the oil phase and aerobic and anaerobic degradation processes were represented. The parameters estimated were the recharge rate, hydraulic conductivity, dissolution rate coefficient, individual first-order BTEX anaerobic degradation rates, and transverse dispersivity. Results were similar for simulations obtained using several alternative conceptual models of the hydrologic system and biodegradation processes. The dissolved BTEX concentration data were not sufficient to discriminate between these conceptual models. The calibrated simulations reproduced the general large-scale evolution of the plume, but did not reproduce the observed small-scale spatial and temporal variability in concentrations. The estimated anaerobic biodegradation rates for toluene and o-xylene were greater than the dissolution rate coefficient. However, the estimated anaerobic biodegradation rates for benzene, ethylbenzene, and m,p-xylene were less than the dissolution rate coefficient. The calibrated model was used to determine the BTEX mass balance in the oil body and groundwater plume. Dissolution from the oil body was greatest for compounds with large effective solubilities (benzene) and with large degradation rates (toluene and o-xylene). Anaerobic degradation removed 77% of the BTEX that dissolved into the water phase and aerobic degradation removed 17%. Although goodness-of-fit measures for the alternative conceptual models were not significantly different, predictions made with the models were quite variable. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

7Be and hydrological model for more efficient implementation of erosion control measure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Barri, Bashar; Bode, Samuel; Blake, William; Ryken, Nick; Cornelis, Wim; Boeckx, Pascal

2014-05-01

Increased concern about the on-site and off-site impacts of soil erosion in agricultural and forested areas has endorsed interest in innovative methods to assess in an unbiased way spatial and temporal soil erosion rates and redistribution patterns. Hence, interest in precisely estimating the magnitude of the problem and therefore applying erosion control measures (ECM) more efficiently. The latest generation of physically-based hydrological models, which fully couple overland flow and subsurface flow in three dimensions, permit implementing ECM in small and large scales more effectively if coupled with a sediment transport algorithm. While many studies focused on integrating empirical or numerical models based on traditional erosion budget measurements into 3D hydrological models, few studies evaluated the efficiency of ECM on watershed scale and very little attention is given to the potentials of environmental Fallout Radio-Nuclides (FRNs) in such applications. The use of FRN tracer 7Be in soil erosion/deposition research proved to overcome many (if not all) of the problems associated with the conventional approaches providing reliable data for efficient land use management. This poster will underline the pros and cones of using conventional methods and 7Be tracers to evaluate the efficiency of coconuts dams installed as ECM in experimental field in Belgium. It will also outline the potentials of 7Be in providing valuable inputs for evolving the numerical sediment transport algorithm needed for the hydrological model on field scale leading to assess the possibility of using this short-lived tracer as a validation tool for the upgraded hydrological model on watershed scale in further steps. Keywords: FRN, erosion control measures, hydrological modes

Within-species patterns challenge our understanding of the causes and consequences of trait variation with implications for trait-based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderegg, L. D.; Berner, L. T.; Badgley, G.; Hillerislambers, J.; Law, B. E.

2017-12-01

Functional traits could facilitate ecological prediction by provide scale-free tools for modeling ecosystem function. Yet much of their utility lies in three key assumptions: 1) that global patterns of trait covariation are the result of universal trade-offs independent of taxonomic scale, so empirical trait-trait relationships can be used to constrain vegetation models 2) that traits respond predictably to environmental gradients and can therefore be reliably quantified to parameterize models and 3) that well sampled traits influence productivity. We use an extensive dataset of within-species leaf trait variation in North American conifers combined with global leaf trait datasets to test these assumptions. We examine traits central to the `leaf economics spectrum', and quantify patterns of trait variation at multiple taxonomic scales. We also test whether site environment explains geographic trait variation within conifers, and ask whether foliar traits explain geographic variation in relative growth rates. We find that most leaf traits vary primarily between rather than within species globally, but that a large fraction of within-PFT trait variation is within-species. We also find that some leaf economics spectrum relationships differ in sign within versus between species, particularly the relationship between leaf lifespan and LMA. In conifers, we find weak and inconsistent relationships between site environment and leaf traits, making it difficult capture within-species leaf trait variation for regional model parameterization. Finally, we find limited relationships between tree relative growth rate and any foliar trait other than leaf lifespan, with leaf traits jointly explaining 42% of within-species growth variation but environmental factors explaining 77% of variation. We suggest that additional traits, particularly whole plant allometry/allocation traits may be better than leaf traits for improving vegetation model performance at smaller taxonomic and spatial scales.

Portable chamber measurements of evapotranspiration at the Amargosa Desert Research Site near Beatty, Nye County, Nevada, 2003-06

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, C. Amanda; Johnson, Michael J.; Andraski, Brian J.; Halford, Keith J.; Mayers, C. Justin

2008-01-01

Portable chamber measurements of evapotranspiration (ET) were made at the U.S. Geological Survey's Amargosa Desert Research Site in southern Nevada to help quantify component- and landscape-scale contributions to ET in an arid environment. Evapotranspiration data were collected approximately every 3 months from 2003 to 2006. Chamber measurements of ET were partitioned into bare-soil evaporation and mixed-species transpiration components. The component-scale ET fluxes from native shrubs typically surpassed those from bare soil by as much as a factor of four. Component-scale ET fluxes were extrapolated to landscape-scale ET using a one-layer, multi-component canopy model. Landscape-scale ET fluxes predominantly were controlled by bare-soil evaporation. Bare soil covered 94 percent of the landscape on average and contributed about 70 percent of the landscape-scale vapor flux. Creosote bush, an evergreen shrub, accounted for about 90 percent of transpiration on average due to its dominance across the landscape (80 percent of the 6 percent shrub cover) and evergreen character.

Linking Arctic plant biodiversity measurements with landscape heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerber, F.; Schaepman-Strub, G.; Furrer, R.

2016-12-01

Climate warming in the Arctic region triggers changes in the vegetation productivity and species composition of the tundra. To investigate these changes and their feedback to climate, we consider species richness and abundance data of the International Tundra EXperiment (ITEX). As this information is very sparse in time and space, we aim to upscale available records to climatically relevant scales with a remote sensing based characterization of the study sites. More precisely, we relate species richness and evenness derived from the ITEX data to summary statistics describing the landscape heterogeneity, which are derived from an elevation model (ASTER GDEM) and spectral satellite observations (LANDSAT 5 and 7). Preliminary results from the statistical analysis using generalized linear mixed models show that no remote sensing based landscape characterization does significantly explain species richness. Reasons could be a mismatch of the spatial scales, an inappropriate characterization of the test sites through the satellite measurements, incomparable plot measurements from the different test sites and/or too few plot measurements. We are looking forward to presenting our results and getting your inputs.

Surface and subsurface geologic risk factors to ground water affecting brownfield redevelopment potential.

PubMed

Kaufman, Martin M; Murray, Kent S; Rogers, Daniel T

2003-01-01

A model is created for assessing the redevelopment potential of brownfields. The model is derived from a space and time conceptual framework that identifies and measures the surface and subsurface risk factors present at brownfield sites. The model then combines these factors with a contamination extent multiplier at each site to create an index of redevelopment potential. Results from the application of the model within an urbanized watershed demonstrate clear differences between the redevelopment potential present within five different near-surface geologic units, with those units containing clay being less vulnerable to subsurface contamination. With and without the extent multiplier, the total risk present at the brownfield sites within all the geologic units is also strongly correlated to the actual costs of remediation. Thus, computing the total surface and subsurface risk within a watershed can help guide the remediation efforts at broad geographic scales, and prioritize the locations for redevelopment.

A Regional Atmospheric Continuous CO2 Network In The Rocky Mountains (Rocky RACCOON)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, B.; de Wekker, S.; Watt, A.; Schimel, D.

2005-12-01

We have established a continuous CO2 observing network in the Rocky Mountains, building on technological and modeling advances made during the Carbon in the Mountains Experiment (CME), to improve our understanding of regional carbon fluxes and to fill key gaps in the North American Carbon Program (NACP). We will present a description of the Rocky RACCOON network and early results from the first three sites. There are strong scientific and societal motivations for determining CO2 exchanges on regional scales. NACP aims to address these concerns through a dramatic expansion in observations and modeling capabilities over North America. Mountain forests in particular represent a significant potential net CO2 sink in the U.S. and are highly sensitive to land-use practices and climate change. However, plans for new continuous CO2 observing sites have omitted the mountain west. This resulted from expensive instrumentation in the face of limited resources, and a perception that current atmospheric transport models are not sophisticated enough to interpret CO2 measurements made in complex terrain. Through our efforts in CME, we have a new autonomous, inexpensive, and robust CO2 analysis system and are developing mountain CO2 modeling tools that will help us to overcome these obstacles. Preliminary observational and modeling results give us confidence that continuous CO2 observations from mountain top observatories will provide useful constraints on regional carbon cycling and will be valuable in the continental inverse modeling efforts planned for NACP. We began at three Colorado sites in August 2005 and hope to add three to six sites in other western states in subsequent years, utilizing existing observatories to the maximum extent possible. The first three sites are at Niwot Ridge, allowing us to have an ongoing intercomparison with flask measurements made by NOAA CMDL; at Storm Peak Laboratory near Steamboat Springs, allowing us to investigate comparisons between these two relatively nearby sites; and at Fraser Experimental Forest, allowing us to investigate nocturnal respiration rates across a large intermountain valley. Our data are available to the public on the internet in near real time to support quality control, local science, and larger scale synthesis efforts.

FIELD INVESTIGATIONS OF THE DRIFT SHADOW

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

G. W. Su, T. J. Kneafsey, T. A. Ghezzehei, B. D. Marshall, and P. J. Cook

The ''Drift Shadow'' is defined as the relatively drier region that forms below subsurface cavities or drifts in unsaturated rock. Its existence has been predicted through analytical and numerical models of unsaturated flow. However, these theoretical predictions have not been demonstrated empirically to date. In this project they plan to test the drift shadow concept through field investigations and compare our observations to simulations. Based on modeling studies they have an identified suitable site to perform the study at an inactive mine in a sandstone formation. Pretest modeling studies and preliminary characterization of the site are being used to developmore » the field scale tests.« less

A Hydrostratigraphic System for Modeling Groundwater Flow and Radionuclide Migration at the Corrective Action Unit Scale, Nevada Test Site and Surrounding Areas, Clark, Lincoln, and Nye Counties, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prothro, Lance; Drellack Jr., Sigmund; Mercadante, Jennifer

2009-01-31

Underground Test Area (UGTA) corrective action unit (CAU) groundwater flow and contaminant transport models of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and vicinity are built upon hydrostratigraphic framework models (HFMs) that utilize the hydrostratigraphic unit (HSU) as the fundamental modeling component. The delineation and three-dimensional (3-D) modeling of HSUs within the highly complex geologic terrain that is the NTS requires a hydrostratigraphic system that is internally consistent, yet flexible enough to account for overlapping model areas, varied geologic terrain, and the development of multiple alternative HFMs. The UGTA CAU-scale hydrostratigraphic system builds on more than 50 years of geologic and hydrologicmore » work in the NTS region. It includes 76 HSUs developed from nearly 300 stratigraphic units that span more than 570 million years of geologic time, and includes rock units as diverse as marine carbonate and siliciclastic rocks, granitic intrusives, rhyolitic lavas and ash-flow tuffs, and alluvial valley-fill deposits. The UGTA CAU-scale hydrostratigraphic system uses a geology-based approach and two-level classification scheme. The first, or lowest, level of the hydrostratigraphic system is the hydrogeologic unit (HGU). Rocks in a model area are first classified as one of ten HGUs based on the rock’s ability to transmit groundwater (i.e., nature of their porosity and permeability), which at the NTS is mainly a function of the rock’s primary lithology, type and degree of postdepositional alteration, and propensity to fracture. The second, or highest, level within the UGTA CAU-scale hydrostratigraphic system is the HSU, which is the fundamental mapping/modeling unit within UGTA CAU-scale HFMs. HSUs are 3-D bodies that are represented in the finite element mesh for the UGTA groundwater modeling process. HSUs are defined systematically by stratigraphically organizing HGUs of similar character into larger HSUs designations. The careful integration of stratigraphic information in the development of HSUs is important to assure individual HSUs are internally consistent, correlatable, and mappable throughout all the model areas.« less

Interests of hydrogeological observatories for characterizing heterogeneous groundwater systems: the example of the Ploemeur hard-rock aquifer (French Brittany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bour, O.; Le Borgne, T.; Aquilina, L.; Labasque, T.; Lavenant, N.; Boudin, F.; Leray, S.; De Dreuzy, J.; Longuevergne, L.; Hochreutener, R.; Davy, P.

2012-12-01

Heterogeneous aquifers are often poorly constrained by the available data. There is a strong need of characterizing at multiple space and time scales heterogeneous groundwater systems to improve model predictions. Here, we present results from the site of Ploemeur (French Brittany) that belongs to the network of hydrogeological sites H+, and where complementarity approaches have been developed for almost fifteen years. This outstandingly heterogeneous crystalline rock aquifer is used for water supply at a rate of about 10^6 m3 per year since 1991. The geology of the area is relatively complex and involves two main structures: a highly fractured contact zone between the Ploemeur's granite and the overlying micaschists, and a steeply dipping fault striking North 20°. The contact zone in itself consists of alternating deformed granitic sheets and enclaves of micaschists, pegmatite and aplite dykes, and locally mylonites and pegmatite-bearing breccias that are often associated with major borehole inflows. At the site scale - typically a square kilometer - and at relatively shallow depth (100 to 150 m), the connectivity of the main flow paths and the hydraulic properties are relatively well constrained and quantified thanks to cross-borehole flowmeter tests and traditional pumping tests. However, such data are relatively limited in explaining the functioning of this confined groundwater system at the regional scale. Groundwater chemistry and groundwater dating permit to go further to identify distinct reservoirs and in particular a relatively deep groundwater component whose age is older than 50 years. Groundwater temperature measurements demonstrate the role of the pumping that influences greatly the spatial distribution of groundwater temperature and quality. Moreover, it suggests that the main water supply comes from a depth of at least 300 meters. This implies relatively deep groundwater circulation that can be achieved only thanks to major permeable fault zone. At the watershed scale - typically ten square kilometers - we show through a high-resolution gravimetric survey that the highly fractured contact between granite and micaschists, which constitutes the main path for groundwater flow, is a gently dipping structure towards the North. This is consistent with measurements of the ground surface deformation through long-base tiltmeters, which suggest that recharge of the aquifer come from the North. Finally, a numerical model of the site that combines hydraulic and age information confirms the geometry of the major permeable fault zone and the consistency of the different datasets. The Ploemeur example shows how multiple datasets at different scales may be combined to characterize and model heterogeneous groundwater systems. It also shows the interests of using specific sites as hydrogeological observatories to test novel field methods, to evaluate the relevance of numerical and theoretical models, to monitor groundwater changes and to improve our knowledge on groundwater systems.

Reach and catchment-scale characteristics are relatively uninfluential in explaining the occurrence of stream fish species.

PubMed

Wuellner, M R; Bramblett, R G; Guy, C S; Zale, A V; Roberts, D R; Johnson, J

2013-05-01

The objectives of this study were (1) to determine whether the presence or absence of prairie fishes can be modelled using habitat and biotic characteristics measured at the reach and catchment scales and (2) to identify which scale (i.e. reach, catchment or a combination of variables measured at both scales) best explains the presence or absence of fishes. Reach and catchment information from 120 sites sampled from 1999 to 2004 were incorporated into tree classifiers for 20 prairie fish species, and multiple criteria were used to evaluate models. Fewer than six models were considered significant when modelling individual fish occurrences at the reach, catchment or combined scale, and only one species was successfully modelled at all three scales. The scarcity of significant models is probably related to the rigorous criteria by which these models were evaluated as well as the prevalence of tolerant, generalist fishes in these stochastic and intermittent streams. No significant differences in the amount of reduced deviance, mean misclassification error rates (MER), and mean improvement in MER metrics was detected among the three scales. Results from this study underscore the importance of continued habitat assessment at smaller scales to further understand prairie-fish occurrences as well as further evaluations of modelling methods to examine habitat relationships for tolerant, ubiquitous species. Incorporation of such suggestions in the future may help provide more accurate models that will allow for better management and conservation of prairie-fish species. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2013 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

The seasonal behaviour of carbon fluxes in the Amazon: fusion of FLUXNET data and the ORCHIDEE model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verbeeck, H.; Peylin, P.; Bacour, C.; Ciais, P.

2009-04-01

Eddy covariance measurements at the Santarém (km 67) site revealed an unexpected seasonal pattern in carbon fluxes which could not be simulated by existing state-of-the-art global ecosystem models (Saleska et al., Sciece 2003). An unexpected high carbon uptake was measured during dry season. In contrast, carbon release was observed in the wet season. There are several possible (combined) underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon: (1) an increased soil respiration due to soil moisture in the wet season, (2) increased photosynthesis during the dry season due to deep rooting, hydraulic lift, increased radiation and/or a leaf flush. The objective of this study is to optimise the ORCHIDEE model using eddy covariance data in order to be able to mimic the seasonal response of carbon fluxes to dry/wet conditions in tropical forest ecosystems. By doing this, we try to identify the underlying mechanisms of this seasonal response. The ORCHIDEE model is a state of the art mechanistic global vegetation model that can be run at local or global scale. It calculates the carbon and water cycle in the different soil and vegetation pools and resolves the diurnal cycle of fluxes. ORCHIDEE is built on the concept of plant functional types (PFT) to describe vegetation. To bring the different carbon pool sizes to realistic values, spin-up runs are used. ORCHIDEE uses climate variables as drivers together with a number of ecosystem parameters that have been assessed from laboratory and in situ experiments. These parameters are still associated with a large uncertainty and may vary between and within PFTs in a way that is currently not informed or captured by the model. Recently, the development of assimilation techniques allows the objective use of eddy covariance data to improve our knowledge of these parameters in a statistically coherent approach. We use a Bayesian optimisation approach. This approach is based on the minimization of a cost function containing the mismatch between simulated model output and observations as well as the mismatch between a priori and optimized parameters. The parameters can be optimized on different time scales (annually, monthly, daily). For this study the model is optimised at local scale for 5 eddy flux sites: 4 sites in Brazil and one in French Guyana. The seasonal behaviour of C fluxes in response to wet and dry conditions differs among these sites. Key processes that are optimised include: the effect of the soil water on heterotrophic soil respiration, the effect of soil water availability on stomatal conductance and photosynthesis, and phenology. By optimising several key parameters we could improve the simulation of the seasonal pattern of NEE significantly. Nevertheless, posterior parameters should be interpreted with care, because resulting parameter values might compensate for uncertainties on the model structure or other parameters. Moreover, several critical issues appeared during this study e.g. how to assimilate latent and sensible heat data, when the energy balance is not closed in the data? Optimisation of the Q10 parameter showed that on some sites respiration was not sensitive at all to temperature, which show only small variations in this region. Considering this, one could question the reliability of the partitioned fluxes (GPP/Reco) at these sites. This study also tests if there is coherence between optimised parameter values of different sites within the tropical forest PFT and if the forward model response to climate variations is similar between sites.

Effect of climate change on environmental flow indicators in the narew basin, poland.

PubMed

Piniewski, Mikołaj; Laizé, Cédric L R; Acreman, Michael C; Okruszko, Tomasz; Schneider, Christof

2014-01-01

Environmental flows-the quantity of water required to maintain a river ecosystem in its desired state-are of particular importance in areas of high natural value. Water-dependent ecosystems are exposed to the risk of climate change through altered precipitation and evaporation. Rivers in the Narew basin in northeastern Poland are known for their valuable river and wetland ecosystems, many of them in pristine or near-pristine condition. The objective of this study was to assess changes in the environmental flow regime of the Narew river system, caused by climate change, as simulated by hydrological models with different degrees of physical characterization and spatial aggregation. Two models were assessed: the river basin scale model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the continental model of water availability and use WaterGAP. Future climate change scenarios were provided by two general circulation models coupled with the A2 emission scenario: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2. To assess the impact of climate change on environmental flows, a method based conceptually on the "range of variability" approach was used. The results indicate that the environmental flow regime in the Narew basin is subject to climate change risk, whose magnitude and spatial variability varies with climate model and hydrological modeling scale. Most of the analyzed sites experienced moderate impacts for the Generic Environmental Flow Indicator (GEFI), the Floodplain Inundation Indicator, and the River Habitat Availability Indicator. The consistency between SWAT and WaterGAP for GEFI was medium: in 55 to 66% of analyzed sites, the models suggested the same level of impact. Hence, we suggest that state-of-the-art, high-resolution, global- or continental-scale models, such as WaterGAP, could be useful tools for water management decision-makers and wetland conservation practitioners, whereas models such as SWAT should serve as a complementary tool for more specific, smaller-scale, local assessments. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Ensemble modeling to predict habitat suitability for a large-scale disturbance specialist

Treesearch

Quresh S. Latif; Victoria A. Saab; Jonathan G. Dudley; Jeff P. Hollenbeck

2013-01-01

To conserve habitat for disturbance specialist species, ecologists must identify where individuals will likely settle in newly disturbed areas. Habitat suitability models can predict which sites at new disturbances will most likely attract specialists. Without validation data from newly disturbed areas, however, the best approach for maximizing predictive accuracy can...

An Integrated Modeling Framework for Performing Environmental Assessments: Application to Ecosystem Services in the Albemarle-Pamlico Basins (NC and VA,USA)

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses environmental models to inform rulemaking and policy decisions at multiple spatial and temporal scales. As decision-making has moved towards integrated thinking and assessment (e.g. media, site, region, services), the increasing compl...

Evaluation of the removal of Strontium-90 from groundwater using a zeolite rich-rock permeable treatment wall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneca, S. M.; Rabideau, A. J.; Bandilla, K.

2010-12-01

Experimental and modeling studies are in progress to evaluate the long-term performance of a permeable treatment wall comprised of zeolite-rich rock for the removal of strontium-90 from groundwater. Multiple column tests were performed at the University at Buffalo and on-site West Valley Environmental Services; columns were supplied with synthetic groundwater referenced to anticipate field conditions and radioactive groundwater on-site WVES. The primary focus in this work is on quantifying the competitive ion exchange among five cations (Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, and Sr2+); the data obtained from the column studies is used to support the robust estimation of zeolite cation exchange parameters. This research will produce a five-solute cation exchange model describing the removal efficiency of the zeolite, using the various column tests to calibrate and validate the geochemical transport model. The field-scale transport model provides flexibility to explore design parameters and potential variations in groundwater geochemistry to investigate the long-term performance of a full scale treatment wall at the Western New York nuclear facility.

Incorporating geologic information into hydraulic tomography: A general framework based on geostatistical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zha, Yuanyuan; Yeh, Tian-Chyi J.; Illman, Walter A.; Onoe, Hironori; Mok, Chin Man W.; Wen, Jet-Chau; Huang, Shao-Yang; Wang, Wenke

2017-04-01

Hydraulic tomography (HT) has become a mature aquifer test technology over the last two decades. It collects nonredundant information of aquifer heterogeneity by sequentially stressing the aquifer at different wells and collecting aquifer responses at other wells during each stress. The collected information is then interpreted by inverse models. Among these models, the geostatistical approaches, built upon the Bayesian framework, first conceptualize hydraulic properties to be estimated as random fields, which are characterized by means and covariance functions. They then use the spatial statistics as prior information with the aquifer response data to estimate the spatial distribution of the hydraulic properties at a site. Since the spatial statistics describe the generic spatial structures of the geologic media at the site rather than site-specific ones (e.g., known spatial distributions of facies, faults, or paleochannels), the estimates are often not optimal. To improve the estimates, we introduce a general statistical framework, which allows the inclusion of site-specific spatial patterns of geologic features. Subsequently, we test this approach with synthetic numerical experiments. Results show that this approach, using conditional mean and covariance that reflect site-specific large-scale geologic features, indeed improves the HT estimates. Afterward, this approach is applied to HT surveys at a kilometer-scale-fractured granite field site with a distinct fault zone. We find that by including fault information from outcrops and boreholes for HT analysis, the estimated hydraulic properties are improved. The improved estimates subsequently lead to better prediction of flow during a different pumping test at the site.

Multiple scale dynamo

PubMed Central

Le Mouël, Jean-Louis; Allègre, Claude J.; Narteau, Clément

1997-01-01

A scaling law approach is used to simulate the dynamo process of the Earth’s core. The model is made of embedded turbulent domains of increasing dimensions, until the largest whose size is comparable with the site of the core, pervaded by large-scale magnetic fields. Left-handed or right-handed cyclones appear at the lowest scale, the scale of the elementary domains of the hierarchical model, and disappear. These elementary domains then behave like electromotor generators with opposite polarities depending on whether they contain a left-handed or a right-handed cyclone. To transfer the behavior of the elementary domains to larger ones, a dynamic renormalization approach is used. A simple rule is adopted to determine whether a domain of scale l is a generator—and what its polarity is—in function of the state of the (l − 1) domains it is made of. This mechanism is used as the main ingredient of a kinematic dynamo model, which displays polarity intervals, excursions, and reversals of the geomagnetic field. PMID:11038547

Modelling deep water habitats to develop a spatially explicit, fine scale understanding of the distribution of the western rock lobster, Panulirus cygnus.

PubMed

Hovey, Renae K; Van Niel, Kimberly P; Bellchambers, Lynda M; Pember, Matthew B

2012-01-01

The western rock lobster, Panulirus cygnus, is endemic to Western Australia and supports substantial commercial and recreational fisheries. Due to and its wide distribution and the commercial and recreational importance of the species a key component of managing western rock lobster is understanding the ecological processes and interactions that may influence lobster abundance and distribution. Using terrain analyses and distribution models of substrate and benthic biota, we assess the physical drivers that influence the distribution of lobsters at a key fishery site. Using data collected from hydroacoustic and towed video surveys, 20 variables (including geophysical, substrate and biota variables) were developed to predict the distributions of substrate type (three classes of reef, rhodoliths and sand) and dominant biota (kelp, sessile invertebrates and macroalgae) within a 40 km(2) area about 30 km off the west Australian coast. Lobster presence/absence data were collected within this area using georeferenced pots. These datasets were used to develop a classification tree model for predicting the distribution of the western rock lobster. Interestingly, kelp and reef were not selected as predictors. Instead, the model selected geophysical and geomorphic scalar variables, which emphasise a mix of terrain within limited distances. The model of lobster presence had an adjusted D(2) of 64 and an 80% correct classification. Species distribution models indicate that juxtaposition in fine scale terrain is most important to the western rock lobster. While key features like kelp and reef may be important to lobster distribution at a broad scale, it is the fine scale features in terrain that are likely to define its ecological niche. Determining the most appropriate landscape configuration and scale will be essential to refining niche habitats and will aid in selecting appropriate sites for protecting critical lobster habitats.

Modelling Deep Water Habitats to Develop a Spatially Explicit, Fine Scale Understanding of the Distribution of the Western Rock Lobster, Panulirus cygnus

PubMed Central

Hovey, Renae K.; Van Niel, Kimberly P.; Bellchambers, Lynda M.; Pember, Matthew B.

2012-01-01

Background The western rock lobster, Panulirus cygnus, is endemic to Western Australia and supports substantial commercial and recreational fisheries. Due to and its wide distribution and the commercial and recreational importance of the species a key component of managing western rock lobster is understanding the ecological processes and interactions that may influence lobster abundance and distribution. Using terrain analyses and distribution models of substrate and benthic biota, we assess the physical drivers that influence the distribution of lobsters at a key fishery site. Methods and Findings Using data collected from hydroacoustic and towed video surveys, 20 variables (including geophysical, substrate and biota variables) were developed to predict the distributions of substrate type (three classes of reef, rhodoliths and sand) and dominant biota (kelp, sessile invertebrates and macroalgae) within a 40 km2 area about 30 km off the west Australian coast. Lobster presence/absence data were collected within this area using georeferenced pots. These datasets were used to develop a classification tree model for predicting the distribution of the western rock lobster. Interestingly, kelp and reef were not selected as predictors. Instead, the model selected geophysical and geomorphic scalar variables, which emphasise a mix of terrain within limited distances. The model of lobster presence had an adjusted D2 of 64 and an 80% correct classification. Conclusions Species distribution models indicate that juxtaposition in fine scale terrain is most important to the western rock lobster. While key features like kelp and reef may be important to lobster distribution at a broad scale, it is the fine scale features in terrain that are likely to define its ecological niche. Determining the most appropriate landscape configuration and scale will be essential to refining niche habitats and will aid in selecting appropriate sites for protecting critical lobster habitats. PMID:22506021

Drivers of spatial heterogeneity in nitrogen processing among three alpine plant communities in the Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churchill, A. C.; Beers, A.; Grinath, J.; Bowman, W. D.

2017-12-01

Nitrogen cycling across the globe has been fundamentally altered due to regional elevated N deposition and there is a cascade of ecosystem consequences including shifts in species composition, eutrophication, and soil acidification. Making predictions that encompass the factors that drive these ecosystem changes has frequently been limited to single ecosystem types, or areas with fairly homogenous abiotic conditions. The alpine is an ecosystem type that exhibits changes under relatively low levels of N depositions due to short growing seasons and shallow soils limiting N storage. While recent work provided estimates for the magnitude of N associated with ecosystem changes, less is known about the within-site factors that may interact to stabilize or amplify the differential response of N pools under future conditions of resource deposition. To examine numerous potential within-site and regional factors (both biotic and abiotic) affecting ecosystem N pools we examined the relationship between those factors and a suite of ecosystem pools of N followed by model selection procedures and structural equation modelling. Measurements were conducted at Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research site and in Rocky Mountain National Park in three distinct alpine meadow ecosystems (dry, moist, and wet meadows). These meadows span a moisture gradient as well as plant community composition, thereby providing high variability of potential biotic and abiotic drivers across small spatial scales in the alpine. In general, regional scale abiotic factors such as site levels of annual average N deposition or precipitation were poor predictors of seasonal pools of N, while spring soil water pools of N were negatively correlated with elevation. Models containing multiple abiotic and biotic drivers, however, were best at predicting soil and plant pools of N across the two sites. Future analysis will include highlight interactions among with-site factors affecting N pools in the alpine using structural equation modelling to statistically examine the bidirectional relationship between plant communities and soil pools of N.

Analytical model for the design of in situ horizontal permeable reactive barriers (HPRBs) for the mitigation of chlorinated solvent vapors in the unsaturated zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verginelli, Iason; Capobianco, Oriana; Hartog, Niels; Baciocchi, Renato

2017-02-01

In this work we introduce a 1-D analytical solution that can be used for the design of horizontal permeable reactive barriers (HPRBs) as a vapor mitigation system at sites contaminated by chlorinated solvents. The developed model incorporates a transient diffusion-dominated transport with a second-order reaction rate constant. Furthermore, the model accounts for the HPRB lifetime as a function of the oxidant consumption by reaction with upward vapors and its progressive dissolution and leaching by infiltrating water. Simulation results by this new model closely replicate previous lab-scale tests carried out on trichloroethylene (TCE) using a HPRB containing a mixture of potassium permanganate, water and sand. In view of field applications, design criteria, in terms of the minimum HPRB thickness required to attenuate vapors at acceptable risk-based levels and the expected HPRB lifetime, are determined from site-specific conditions such as vapor source concentration, water infiltration rate and HPRB mixture. The results clearly show the field-scale feasibility of this alternative vapor mitigation system for the treatment of chlorinated solvents. Depending on the oxidation kinetic of the target contaminant, a 1 m thick HPRB can ensure an attenuation of vapor concentrations of orders of magnitude up to 20 years, even for vapor source concentrations up to 10 g/m3. A demonstrative application for representative contaminated site conditions also shows the feasibility of this mitigation system from an economical point of view with capital costs potentially somewhat lower than those of other remediation options, such as soil vapor extraction systems. Overall, based on the experimental and theoretical evaluation thus far, field-scale tests are warranted to verify the potential and cost-effectiveness of HPRBs for vapor mitigation control under various conditions of application.

Global Magnetosphere Modeling With Kinetic Treatment of Magnetic Reconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toth, G.; Chen, Y.; Gombosi, T. I.; Cassak, P.; Markidis, S.; Peng, B.; Henderson, M. G.

2017-12-01

Global magnetosphere simulations with a kinetic treatment of magnetic reconnection are very challenging because of the large separation of global and kinetic scales. We have developed two algorithms that can overcome these difficulties: 1) the two-way coupling of the global magnetohydrodynamic code with an embedded particle-in-cell model (MHD-EPIC) and 2) the artificial increase of the ion and electron kinetic scales. Both of these techniques improve the efficiency of the simulations by many orders of magnitude. We will describe the techniques and show that they provide correct and meaningful results. Using the coupled model and the increased kinetic scales, we will present global magnetosphere simulations with the PIC domains covering the dayside and/or tail reconnection sites. The simulation results will be compared to and validated with MMS observations.

Prediction of biological integrity based on environmental similarity--revealing the scale-dependent link between study area and top environmental predictors.

PubMed

Bedoya, David; Manolakos, Elias S; Novotny, Vladimir

2011-03-01

Indices of Biological integrity (IBI) are considered valid indicators of the overall health of a water body because the biological community is an endpoint within natural systems. However, prediction of biological integrity using information from multi-parameter environmental observations is a challenging problem due to the hierarchical organization of the natural environment, the existence of nonlinear inter-dependencies among variables as well as natural stochasticity and measurement noise. We present a method for predicting the Fish Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) using multiple environmental observations at the state-scale in Ohio. Instream (chemical and physical quality) and offstream parameters (regional and local upstream land uses, stream fragmentation, and point source density and intensity) are used for this purpose. The IBI predictions are obtained using the environmental site-similarity concept and following a simple to implement leave-one-out cross validation approach. An IBI prediction for a sampling site is calculated by averaging the observed IBI scores of observations clustered in the most similar branch of a dendrogram--a hierarchical clustering tree of environmental observations--built using the rest of the observations. The standardized Euclidean distance is used to assess dissimilarity between observations. The constructed predictive model was able to explain 61% of the IBI variability statewide. Stream fragmentation and regional land use explained 60% of the variability; the remaining 1% was explained by instream habitat quality. Metrics related to local land use, water quality, and point source density and intensity did not improve the predictive model at the state-scale. The impact of local environmental conditions was evaluated by comparing local characteristics between well- and mispredicted sites. Significant differences in local land use patterns and upstream fragmentation density explained some of the model's over-predictions. Local land use conditions explained some of the model's IBI under-predictions at the state-scale since none of the variables within this group were included in the best final predictive model. Under-predicted sites also had higher levels of downstream fragmentation. The proposed variables ranking and predictive modeling methodology is very well suited for the analysis of hierarchical environments, such as natural fresh water systems, with many cross-correlated environmental variables. It is computationally efficient, can be fully automated, does not make any pre-conceived assumptions on the variables interdependency structure (such as linearity), and it is able to rank variables in a database and generate IBI predictions using only non-parametric easy to implement hierarchical clustering. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lava flow topographic measurements for radar data interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Bruce A.; Garvin, James B.

1993-01-01

Topographic profiles at 25- and 5-cm horizontal resolution for three sites along a lava flow on Kilauea Volcano are presented, and these data are used to illustrate techniques for surface roughness analysis. Height and slope distributions and the height autocorrelation function are evaluated as a function of varying lowpass filter wavelength for the 25-cm data. Rms slopes are found to increase rapidly with decreasing topographic scale and are typically much higher than those found by modeling of Magellan altimeter data for Venus. A more robust description of the surface roughness appears to be the ratio of rms height to surface height correlation length. For all three sites this parameter falls within the range of values typically found from model fits to Magellan altimeter waveforms. The 5-cm profile data are used to estimate the effect of small-scale roughness on quasi-specular scattering.

Need for improved methods to collect and present spatial epidemiologic data for vectorborne diseases.

PubMed

Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J

2007-12-01

Improved methods for collection and presentation of spatial epidemiologic data are needed for vectorborne diseases in the United States. Lack of reliable data for probable pathogen exposure site has emerged as a major obstacle to the development of predictive spatial risk models. Although plague case investigations can serve as a model for how to ideally generate needed information, this comprehensive approach is cost-prohibitive for more common and less severe diseases. New methods are urgently needed to determine probable pathogen exposure sites that will yield reliable results while taking into account economic and time constraints of the public health system and attending physicians. Recent data demonstrate the need for a change from use of the county spatial unit for presentation of incidence of vectorborne diseases to more precise ZIP code or census tract scales. Such fine-scale spatial risk patterns can be communicated to the public and medical community through Web-mapping approaches.

Landscape-Scale Soil Carbon Inventories by Microclimate Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaudette, D. E.; O'Geen, A. T.

2008-12-01

Estimation of carbon stocks in rangeland and foothill ecosystems is poised to become an important service once legislation regulating greenhouse gas emissions is passed. Trading of carbon credits and greenhouse gas emission/sequestration budgets for vegetated areas is largely dependent on an accurate and scale- dependent inventory of existing conditions. Soil survey presents one possible resource for surface carbon stocks, however these data are usually not mapped at the landscape-scale. Soil-landscape modeling techniques have been successfully used in several instances to predict the spatial variation in soil carbon. Most of these studies have used site exposure (aspect angle) as a categorical proxy for terrain-induced microclimate. Our objective was to model parameters related to soil microclimate (soil temperature and moisture) for the production of detailed maps of soil carbon and organic matter quality (i.e. C:N ratio). We used a solar radiation model and long-term monitoring of soil moisture and temperature to generate several models of soil microclimate. Parameterization of the ESRA (European Solar Radiation Atlas) solar radiation model (clear-sky version) was accomplished with daily estimates of the Linke turbidity factor, using local pyranometer measurements (11 year record). Our estimated daily radiance values correlated well with local weather station data (R2 = 0.965, p < 0.001). This model is included in the popular, open source GRASS GIS. A preliminary study based on 35 sites, spanning two contrasting landform types (and lithology), revealed a statistically significant relationship between annual radiation load and carbon (R2 = 0.75, p < 0.001). A highly significant relationship between C:N ratio and annual radiation load was identified as well (R2 = 0.99, p < 0.001). Solar radiation models are simple to use, and have the potential to refine previous soil-landscape modeling efforts that relied on aspect class or angle. Models linking surface processes with microclimate can be used to directly generate estimates of carbon, or used to down-scale soil survey-based estimates.

Scaling of Directed Dynamical Small-World Networks with Random Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Chen-Ping; Xiong, Shi-Jie; Tian, Ying-Jie; Li, Nan; Jiang, Ke-Sheng

2004-05-01

A dynamical model of small-world networks, with directed links which describe various correlations in social and natural phenomena, is presented. Random responses of sites to the input message are introduced to simulate real systems. The interplay of these ingredients results in the collective dynamical evolution of a spinlike variable S(t) of the whole network. The global average spreading length s and average spreading time s are found to scale as p-αln(N with different exponents. Meanwhile, S(t) behaves in a duple scaling form for N≫N*: S˜f(p-βqγt˜), where p and q are rewiring and external parameters, α, β, and γ are scaling exponents, and f(t˜) is a universal function. Possible applications of the model are discussed.

Quantifying the effects of mountain pine beetle infestation on water and biogeochemical cycles at multiple spatial and temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, P. D.; Harpold, A. A.; Somor, A. J.; Troch, P. A.; Gochis, D. J.; Ewers, B. E.; Pendall, E.; Biederman, J. A.; Reed, D.; Barnard, H. R.; Whitehouse, F.; Aston, T.; Borkhuu, B.

2010-12-01

Unprecedented levels of bark beetle infestation over the last decade have radically altered forest structure across millions of hectares of Western U.S. montane environments. The widespread extent of this disturbance presents a major challenge for governments and resource managers who lack a predictive understanding of how water and biogeochemical cycles will respond to this disturbance over various temporal and spatial scales. There is a widespread perception, largely based on hydrological responses to fire or logging, that a reduction in both transpiration and interception following tree death will increase soil water availability and catchment water yield. However, few studies have directly addressed the effects of insect-induced forest decline on water and biogeochemical cycling. We address this knowledge gap using observations and modeling at scales from 100 to 109 m2 across study sites in CO and WY that vary in the intensity and timing of beetle infestation and tree death. Our focus on multiple sites with different levels of impact allows us to address two broad, organizing questions: How do changes in vegetation structure associated with MPB alter the partitioning of energy and water? And How do these changes in energy and water availability affect local to regional scale water and biogeochemical cycles? This presentation will focus primarily on energy balance and water partitioning, providing context for ongoing biogeochemical work. During the growing season, stand-scale transpiration declines rapidly and soil moisture increases following infestation, consistent with streamflow data from regional catchments that shows an increase in baseflow following widespread attack. During the winter and spring, stand scale snow surveys and continuous snow depth sensors suggested that the variability in snow cover decreased as the severity of beetle impact increases, but there were no significant stand-scale differences in snow depth among levels of impact. This is due both to an increase in snow under the canopies of dead trees and a decrease in snow cover in canopy gaps. For example, mean snow depth under the canopy was 86cm (CV 0.02) in unimpacted sites and 95cm (CV 0.05) in heavily impacted sites. In canopy gaps however, mean snow depth was 117cm (CV 0.11) in unimpacted sites but only 93cm (CV 0.07) in heavily impacted sites. At the watershed scale, bark beetle infestation was more likely to decrease the amount of both snowmelt and annual runoff, suggesting that the opening of the canopy increases sublimation and evaporation of the snow cover. These data suggest that the disturbance due to bark beetle infestation is both quantitatively and qualitatively different than either fire or logging. Using these observations, we develop a conceptual model for evaluating how biotic and abiotic processes couple water and biogeochemical cycles in forest ecosystems.

Analysis and test for space shuttle propellant dynamics (1/10th scale model test results). Volume 1: Technical discussion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berry, R. L.; Tegart, J. R.; Demchak, L. J.

1979-01-01

Space shuttle propellant dynamics during ET/Orbiter separation in the RTLS (return to launch site) mission abort sequence were investigated in a test program conducted in the NASA KC-135 "Zero G" aircraft using a 1/10th-scale model of the ET LOX Tank. Low-g parabolas were flown from which thirty tests were selected for evaluation. Data on the nature of low-g propellant reorientation in the ET LOX tank, and measurements of the forces exerted on the tank by the moving propellent will provide a basis for correlation with an analytical model of the slosh phenomenon.

Thermodynamic analysis of Bacillus subtilis endospore protonation using isothermal titration calorimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrold, Zoë R.; Gorman-Lewis, Drew

2013-05-01

Bacterial proton and metal adsorption reactions have the capacity to affect metal speciation and transport in aqueous environments. We coupled potentiometric titration and isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) analyses to study Bacillus subtilis spore-proton adsorption. We modeled the potentiometric data using a four and five-site non-electrostatic surface complexation model (NE-SCM). Heats of spore surface protonation from coupled ITC analyses were used to determine site specific enthalpies of protonation based on NE-SCMs. The five-site model resulted in a substantially better model fit for the heats of protonation but did not significantly improve the potentiometric titration model fit. The improvement observed in the five-site protonation heat model suggests the presence of a highly exothermic protonation reaction circa pH 7 that cannot be resolved in the less sensitive potentiometric data. From the log Ks and enthalpies we calculated corresponding site specific entropies. Log Ks and site concentrations describing spore surface protonation are statistically equivalent to B. subtilis cell surface protonation constants. Spore surface protonation enthalpies, however, are more exothermic relative to cell based adsorption suggesting a different bonding environment. The thermodynamic parameters defined in this study provide insight on molecular scale spore-surface protonation reactions. Coupled ITC and potentiometric titrations can reveal highly exothermic, and possibly endothermic, adsorption reactions that are overshadowed in potentiometric models alone. Spore-proton adsorption NE-SCMs derived in this study provide a framework for future metal adsorption studies.

Spatial Upscaling of Long-term In Situ LAI Measurements from Global Network Sites for Validation of Remotely Sensed Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, B.; Jing, L.; Qinhuo, L.; Zeng, Y.; Yin, G.; Fan, W.; Zhao, J.

2015-12-01

Leaf area index (LAI) is a key parameter in terrestrial ecosystem models, and a series of global LAI products have been derived from satellite data. To effectively apply these LAI products, it is necessary to evaluate their accuracy reasonablely. The long-term LAI measurements from the global network sites are an important supplement to the product validation dataset. However, the spatial scale mismatch between the site measurement and the pixel grid hinders the utilization of these measurements in LAI product validation. In this study, a pragmatic approach based on the Bayesian linear regression between long-term LAI measurements and high-resolution images is presented for upscaling the point-scale measurements to the pixel-scale. The algorithm was evaluated using high-resolution LAI reference maps provided by the VALERI project at the Järvselja site and was implemented to upscale the long-term LAI measurements at the global network sites. Results indicate that the spatial scaling algorithm can reduce the root mean square error (RMSE) from 0.42 before upscaling to 0.21 after upscaling compared with the aggregated LAI reference maps at the pixel-scale. Meanwhile, the algorithm shows better reliability and robustness than the ordinary least square (OLS) method for upscaling some LAI measurements acquired at specific dates without high-resolution images. The upscaled LAI measurements were employed to validate three global LAI products, including MODIS, GLASS and GEOV1. Results indicate that (i) GLASS and GEOV1 show consistent temporal profiles over most sites, while MODIS exhibits temporal instability over a few forest sites. The RMSE of seasonality between products and upscaled LAI measurement is 0.25-1.72 for MODIS, 0.17-1.29 for GLASS and 0.36-1.35 for GEOV1 along with different sites. (ii) The uncertainty for products varies over different months. The lowest and highest uncertainty for MODIS are 0.67 in March and 1.53 in August, for GLASS are 0.67 in November and 0.99 in July, and for GEOV1 are 0.61 in March and 1.23 in August, respectively. (iii) The overall uncertainty for MODIS, GLASS and GEOV1 is 1.36, 0.90 and 0.99, respectively. According to this study, the long-term LAI measurements can be used to validate time series remote sensing products by spatial upscaling from point-scale to pixel-scale.

Paleoearthquakes of the past ~2500 years at the Dead Mouse site, west-central Denali fault at the Nenana River, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, K.; Bemis, S. P.; Toke, N. A.; Bishop, B.; Taylor, P.

2015-12-01

Understanding the record of earthquakes along the Denali Fault (DF) is important for resource and infrastructure development and presents the potential to test earthquake rupture models in a tectonic environment with a larger ratio of event recurrence to geochronological uncertainty than well studied plate boundary faults such as the San Andreas. However, the fault system is over 1200 km in length and has proven challenging to identify paleoseismic sites that preserve more than 2-3 Paleoearthquakes (PEQ). In 2012 and 2015 we developed the 'Dead Mouse' site, providing the first long PEQ record west of the 2002 rupture extent. This site is located on the west-central segment of the DF near the southernmost intersection of the George Parks Hwy and the Nenana River (63.45285, -148.80249). We hand-excavated three fault-perpendicular trenches, including a fault-parallel extension that we excavated and recorded in a progressive sequence. We used Structure from Motion software to build mm-scale 3D models of the exposures. These models allowed us to produce orthorectified photomosaics for hand logging at 1:5 scale. We document evidence for 4-5 surface rupturing earthquakes that have deformed the upper 2.5 m of stratigraphy. Age control from our preliminary 2012 investigation indicates these events occurred within the past ~2,500 years. Evidence for these events include offset units, filled fissures, upward fault terminations, angular unconformities and minor scarp-derived colluvial deposits. Multiple lines of evidence from the primary fault zones and fault splays are apparent for each event. We are testing these correlations by constructing a georeferenced 3D site model and running an additional 20 geochronology samples including woody macrofossils, detrital and in-situ charcoal, and samples for post-IR IRSL from positions that should closely constrain stratigraphic evidence for earthquakes. We expect this long PEQ history to provide a critical test for future modeling of recurrence and fault segmentation on the DF.

Allometric Convergence in Savanna Trees and Implications for the Use of Plant Scaling Models in Variable Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Hanan, Niall P.

2013-01-01

Theoretical models of allometric scaling provide frameworks for understanding and predicting how and why the morphology and function of organisms vary with scale. It remains unclear, however, if the predictions of ‘universal’ scaling models for vascular plants hold across diverse species in variable environments. Phenomena such as competition and disturbance may drive allometric scaling relationships away from theoretical predictions based on an optimized tree. Here, we use a hierarchical Bayesian approach to calculate tree-specific, species-specific, and ‘global’ (i.e. interspecific) scaling exponents for several allometric relationships using tree- and branch-level data harvested from three savanna sites across a rainfall gradient in Mali, West Africa. We use these exponents to provide a rigorous test of three plant scaling models (Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST), Geometric Similarity, and Stress Similarity) in savanna systems. For the allometric relationships we evaluated (diameter vs. length, aboveground mass, stem mass, and leaf mass) the empirically calculated exponents broadly overlapped among species from diverse environments, except for the scaling exponents for length, which increased with tree cover and density. When we compare empirical scaling exponents to the theoretical predictions from the three models we find MST predictions are most consistent with our observed allometries. In those situations where observations are inconsistent with MST we find that departure from theory corresponds with expected tradeoffs related to disturbance and competitive interactions. We hypothesize savanna trees have greater length-scaling exponents than predicted by MST due to an evolutionary tradeoff between fire escape and optimization of mechanical stability and internal resource transport. Future research on the drivers of systematic allometric variation could reconcile the differences between observed scaling relationships in variable ecosystems and those predicted by ideal models such as MST. PMID:23484003

Understanding the Geometry of Connected Fracture Flow with Multiperiod Oscillatory Hydraulic Tests.

PubMed

Sayler, Claire; Cardiff, Michael; Fort, Michael D

2018-03-01

An understanding of the spatial and hydraulic properties of fast preferential flow pathways in the subsurface is necessary in applications ranging from contaminant fate and transport modeling to design of energy extraction systems. One method for the characterization of fracture properties over interwellbore scales is Multiperiod Oscillatory Hydraulic (MOH) testing, in which the aquifer response to oscillatory pressure stimulations is observed. MOH tests were conducted on isolated intervals of wells in siliciclastic and carbonate aquifers in southern Wisconsin. The goal was to characterize the spatial properties of discrete fractures over interwellbore scales. MOH tests were conducted on two discrete fractured intervals intersecting two boreholes at one field site, and a nest of three piezometers at another field site. Fracture diffusivity estimates were obtained using analytical solutions that relate diffusivity to observed phase lag and amplitude decay. In addition, MOH tests were used to investigate the spatial extent of flow using different conceptual models of fracture geometry. Results indicated that fracture geometry at both field sites can be approximated by permeable two-dimensional fracture planes, oriented near-horizontally at one site, and near-vertically at the other. The technique used on MOH field data to characterize fracture geometry shows promise in revealing fracture network characteristics important to groundwater flow and transport. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

Assessing the Importance of Incorporating Spatial and Temporal Variability of Soil and Plant Parameters into Local Water Balance Models for Precision Agriculture: Investigations within a California Vineyard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubbard, S.; Pierce, L.; Grote, K.; Rubin, Y.

2003-12-01

Due Due to the high cash crop nature of premium winegrapes, recent research has focused on developing a better understanding of the factors that influence winegrape spatial and temporal variability. Precision grapevine irrigation schemes require consideration of the factors that regulate vineyard water use such as (1) plant parameters, (2) climatic conditions, and (3) water availability in the soil as a function of soil texture. The inability to sample soil and plant parameters accurately, at a dense enough resolution, and over large enough areas has limited previous investigations focused on understanding the influences of soil water and vegetation on water balance at the local field scale. We have acquired several novel field data sets to describe the small scale (decimeters to a hundred meters) spatial variability of soil and plant parameters within a 4 acre field study site at the Robert Mondavi Winery in Napa County, California. At this site, we investigated the potential of ground penetrating radar data (GPR) for providing estimates of near surface water content. Calibration of grids of 900 MHz GPR groundwave data with conventional soil moisture measurements revealed that the GPR volumetric water content estimation approach was valid to within 1 percent accuracy, and that the data grids provided unparalleled density of soil water content over the field site as a function of season. High-resolution airborne multispectral remote sensing data was also collected at the study site, which was converted to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and correlated to leaf area index (LAI) using plant-based measurements within a parallel study. Meteorological information was available from a weather station of the California Irrigation management Information System, located less than a mile from our study area. The measurements were used within a 2-D Vineyard Soil Irrigation Model (VSIM), which can incorporate the spatially variable, high-resolution soil and plant-based information. VSIM, which is based on the concept that equilibrium exists between climate, soils, and LAI, was used to simulate vine water stress, water use, and irrigation requirements during a single year for the site. Using the simple water-balance model with the dense characterization data, we will discuss: (1) the ability to predict vineyard soil water content at the small scales of soil heterogeneity that are observed in nature at the local-scale, (2) the relative importance of plant, climate, and soil information to predictions of the soil water balance at the site, (3) the influence of crop cover in the water balance predictions.

The Impact of Truth Surrogate Variance on Quality Assessment/Assurance in Wind Tunnel Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLoach, Richard

2016-01-01

Minimum data volume requirements for wind tunnel testing are reviewed and shown to depend on error tolerance, response model complexity, random error variance in the measurement environment, and maximum acceptable levels of inference error risk. Distinctions are made between such related concepts as quality assurance and quality assessment in response surface modeling, as well as between precision and accuracy. Earlier research on the scaling of wind tunnel tests is extended to account for variance in the truth surrogates used at confirmation sites in the design space to validate proposed response models. A model adequacy metric is presented that represents the fraction of the design space within which model predictions can be expected to satisfy prescribed quality specifications. The impact of inference error on the assessment of response model residuals is reviewed. The number of sites where reasonably well-fitted response models actually predict inadequately is shown to be considerably less than the number of sites where residuals are out of tolerance. The significance of such inference error effects on common response model assessment strategies is examined.

Periodic Hydraulic Testing for Discerning Fracture Network Connections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M.; Le Borgne, T.; Bour, O.; Guihéneuf, N.; Cole, M.

2015-12-01

Discrete fracture network (DFN) models often predict highly variable hydraulic connections between injection and pumping wells used for enhanced oil recovery, geothermal energy extraction, and groundwater remediation. Such connections can be difficult to verify in fractured rock systems because standard pumping or pulse interference tests interrogate too large a volume to pinpoint specific connections. Three field examples are presented in which periodic hydraulic tests were used to obtain information about hydraulic connectivity in fractured bedrock. The first site, a sandstone in New York State, involves only a single fracture at a scale of about 10 m. The second site, a granite in Brittany, France, involves a fracture network at about the same scale. The third site, a granite/schist in the U.S. State of New Hampshire, involves a complex network at scale of 30-60 m. In each case periodic testing provided an enhanced view of hydraulic connectivity over previous constant rate tests. Periodic testing is particularly adept at measuring hydraulic diffusivity, which is a more effective parameter than permeability for identify the complexity of flow pathways between measurement locations. Periodic tests were also conducted at multiple frequencies which provides a range in the radius of hydraulic penetration away from the oscillating well. By varying the radius of penetration, we attempt to interrogate the structure of the fracture network. Periodic tests, therefore, may be uniquely suited for verifying and/or calibrating DFN models.

Land Cover and Topography Affect the Land Transformation Caused by Wind Facilities

PubMed Central

Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Compton, Roger W.

2014-01-01

Land transformation (ha of surface disturbance/MW) associated with wind facilities shows wide variation in its reported values. In addition, no studies have attempted to explain the variation across facilities. We digitized land transformation at 39 wind facilities using high resolution aerial imagery. We then modeled the effects of turbine size, configuration, land cover, and topography on the levels of land transformation at three spatial scales. The scales included strings (turbines with intervening roads only), sites (strings with roads connecting them, buried cables and other infrastructure), and entire facilities (sites and the roads or transmission lines connecting them to existing infrastructure). An information theoretic modeling approach indicated land cover and topography were well-supported variables affecting land transformation, but not turbine size or configuration. Tilled landscapes, despite larger distances between turbines, had lower average land transformation, while facilities in forested landscapes generally had the highest land transformation. At site and string scales, flat topographies had the lowest land transformation, while facilities on mesas had the largest. The results indicate the landscape in which the facilities are placed affects the levels of land transformation associated with wind energy. This creates opportunities for optimizing wind energy production while minimizing land cover change. In addition, the results indicate forecasting the impacts of wind energy on land transformation should include the geographic variables affecting land transformation reported here. PMID:24558449

Land cover and topography affect the land transformation caused by wind facilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Compton, Roger W.

2014-01-01

Land transformation (ha of surface disturbance/MW) associated with wind facilities shows wide variation in its reported values. In addition, no studies have attempted to explain the variation across facilities. We digitized land transformation at 39 wind facilities using high resolution aerial imagery. We then modeled the effects of turbine size, configuration, land cover, and topography on the levels of land transformation at three spatial scales. The scales included strings (turbines with intervening roads only), sites (strings with roads connecting them, buried cables and other infrastructure), and entire facilities (sites and the roads or transmission lines connecting them to existing infrastructure). An information theoretic modeling approach indicated land cover and topography were well-supported variables affecting land transformation, but not turbine size or configuration. Tilled landscapes, despite larger distances between turbines, had lower average land transformation, while facilities in forested landscapes generally had the highest land transformation. At site and string scales, flat topographies had the lowest land transformation, while facilities on mesas had the largest. The results indicate the landscape in which the facilities are placed affects the levels of land transformation associated with wind energy. This creates opportunities for optimizing wind energy production while minimizing land cover change. In addition, the results indicate forecasting the impacts of wind energy on land transformation should include the geographic variables affecting land transformation reported here.

National-scale exposure prediction for long-term concentrations of particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide in South Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Sun-Young; Song, Insang

2017-07-01

The limited spatial coverage of the air pollution data available from regulatory air quality monitoring networks hampers national-scale epidemiological studies of air pollution. The present study aimed to develop a national-scale exposure prediction model for estimating annual average concentrations of PM 10 and NO 2 at residences in South Korea using regulatory monitoring data for 2010. Using hourly measurements of PM 10 and NO 2 at 277 regulatory monitoring sites, we calculated the annual average concentrations at each site. We also computed 322 geographic variables in order to represent plausible local and regional pollution sources. Using these data, we developed universal kriging models, including three summary predictors estimated by partial least squares (PLS). The model performance was evaluated with fivefold cross-validation. In sensitivity analyses, we compared our approach with two alternative approaches, which added regional interactions and replaced the PLS predictors with up to ten selected variables. Finally, we predicted the annual average concentrations of PM 10 and NO 2 at 83,463 centroids of residential census output areas in South Korea to investigate the population exposure to these pollutants and to compare the exposure levels between monitored and unmonitored areas. The means of the annual average concentrations of PM 10 and NO 2 for 2010, across regulatory monitoring sites in South Korea, were 51.63 μg/m3 (SD = 8.58) and 25.64 ppb (11.05), respectively. The universal kriging exposure prediction models yielded cross-validated R 2 s of 0.45 and 0.82 for PM 10 and NO 2 , respectively. Compared to our model, the two alternative approaches gave consistent or worse performances. Population exposure levels in unmonitored areas were lower than in monitored areas. This is the first study that focused on developing a national-scale point wise exposure prediction approach in South Korea, which will allow national exposure assessments and epidemiological research to answer policy-related questions and to draw comparisons among different countries. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating carbon fluxes of global forest ecosystems by using an individual tree-based model FORCCHN.

PubMed

Ma, Jianyong; Shugart, Herman H; Yan, Xiaodong; Cao, Cougui; Wu, Shuang; Fang, Jing

2017-05-15

The carbon budget of forest ecosystems, an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, needs to be accurately quantified and predicted by ecological models. As a preamble to apply the model to estimate global carbon uptake by forest ecosystems, we used the CO 2 flux measurements from 37 forest eddy-covariance sites to examine the individual tree-based FORCCHN model's performance globally. In these initial tests, the FORCCHN model simulated gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and net ecosystem production (NEP) with correlations of 0.72, 0.70 and 0.53, respectively, across all forest biomes. The model underestimated GPP and slightly overestimated ER across most of the eddy-covariance sites. An underestimation of NEP arose primarily from the lower GPP estimates. Model performance was better in capturing both the temporal changes and magnitude of carbon fluxes in deciduous broadleaf forest than in evergreen broadleaf forest, and it performed less well for sites in Mediterranean climate. We then applied the model to estimate the carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems on global scale over 1982-2011. This application of FORCCHN gave a total GPP of 59.41±5.67 and an ER of 57.21±5.32PgCyr -1 for global forest ecosystems during 1982-2011. The forest ecosystems over this same period contributed a large carbon storage, with total NEP being 2.20±0.64PgCyr -1 . These values are comparable to and reinforce estimates reported in other studies. This analysis highlights individual tree-based model FORCCHN could be used to evaluate carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems on global scale. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of Slope-Scale Snowmelt on Catchment Response Simulated With the Alpine3D Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brauchli, Tristan; Trujillo, Ernesto; Huwald, Hendrik; Lehning, Michael

2017-12-01

Snow and hydrological modeling in alpine environments remains challenging because of the complexity of the processes affecting the mass and energy balance. This study examines the influence of snowmelt on the hydrological response of a high-alpine catchment of 43.2 km2 in the Swiss Alps during the water year 2014-2015. Based on recent advances in Alpine3D, we examine how snow distributions and liquid water transport within the snowpack influence runoff dynamics. By combining these results with multiscale observations (snow lysimeter, distributed snow depths, and streamflow), we demonstrate the added value of a more realistic snow distribution at the onset of melt season. At the site scale, snowpack runoff is well simulated when the mass balance errors are corrected (R2 = 0.95 versus R2 = 0.61). At the subbasin scale, a more heterogeneous snowpack leads to a more rapid runoff pulse originating in the shallower areas while an extended melting period (by a month) is caused by snowmelt from deeper areas. This is a marked improvement over results obtained using a traditional precipitation interpolation method. Hydrological response is also improved by the more realistic snowpack (NSE of 0.85 versus 0.74), even though calibration processes smoothen out the differences. The added value of a more complex liquid water transport scheme is obvious at the site scale but decreases at larger scales. Our results highlight not only the importance but also the difficulty of getting a realistic snowpack distribution even in a well-instrumented area and present a model validation from multiscale experimental data sets.

Out of the net: An agent-based model to study human movements influence on local-scale malaria transmission.

PubMed

Pizzitutti, Francesco; Pan, William; Feingold, Beth; Zaitchik, Ben; Álvarez, Carlos A; Mena, Carlos F

2018-01-01

Though malaria control initiatives have markedly reduced malaria prevalence in recent decades, global eradication is far from actuality. Recent studies show that environmental and social heterogeneities in low-transmission settings have an increased weight in shaping malaria micro-epidemiology. New integrated and more localized control strategies should be developed and tested. Here we present a set of agent-based models designed to study the influence of local scale human movements on local scale malaria transmission in a typical Amazon environment, where malaria is transmission is low and strongly connected with seasonal riverine flooding. The agent-based simulations show that the overall malaria incidence is essentially not influenced by local scale human movements. In contrast, the locations of malaria high risk spatial hotspots heavily depend on human movements because simulated malaria hotspots are mainly centered on farms, were laborers work during the day. The agent-based models are then used to test the effectiveness of two different malaria control strategies both designed to reduce local scale malaria incidence by targeting hotspots. The first control scenario consists in treat against mosquito bites people that, during the simulation, enter at least once inside hotspots revealed considering the actual sites where human individuals were infected. The second scenario involves the treatment of people entering in hotspots calculated assuming that the infection sites of every infected individual is located in the household where the individual lives. Simulations show that both considered scenarios perform better in controlling malaria than a randomized treatment, although targeting household hotspots shows slightly better performance.

Plant traits, productivity, biomass and soil properties from forest sites in the Pacific Northwest, 1999–2014

PubMed Central

Berner, Logan T.; Law, Beverly E.

2016-01-01

Plant trait measurements are needed for evaluating ecological responses to environmental conditions and for ecosystem process model development, parameterization, and testing. We present a standardized dataset integrating measurements from projects conducted by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research and Regional Analysis- Pacific Northwest (TERRA-PNW) research group between 1999 and 2014 across Oregon and Northern California, where measurements were collected for scaling and modeling regional terrestrial carbon processes with models such as Biome-BGC and the Community Land Model. The dataset contains measurements of specific leaf area, leaf longevity, leaf carbon and nitrogen for 35 tree and shrub species derived from more than 1,200 branch samples collected from over 200 forest plots, including several AmeriFlux sites. The dataset also contains plot-level measurements of forest composition, structure (e.g., tree biomass), and productivity, as well as measurements of soil structure (e.g., bulk density) and chemistry (e.g., carbon). Publically-archiving regional datasets of standardized, co-located, and geo-referenced plant trait measurements will advance the ability of earth system models to capture species-level climate sensitivity at regional to global scales. PMID:26784559

Plant traits, productivity, biomass and soil properties from forest sites in the Pacific Northwest, 1999–2014

DOE PAGES

Berner, Logan T.; Law, Beverly E.

2016-01-19

Plant trait measurements are needed for evaluating ecological responses to environmental conditions and for ecosystem process model development, parameterization, and testing. Here, we present a standardized dataset integrating measurements from projects conducted by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research and Regional Analysis- Pacific Northwest (TERRA-PNW) research group between 1999 and 2014 across Oregon and Northern California, where measurements were collected for scaling and modeling regional terrestrial carbon processes with models such as Biome-BGC and the Community Land Model. The dataset contains measurements of specific leaf area, leaf longevity, leaf carbon and nitrogen for 35 tree and shrub species derived from more thanmore » 1,200 branch samples collected from over 200 forest plots, including several AmeriFlux sites. The dataset also contains plot-level measurements of forest composition, structure (e.g., tree biomass), and productivity, as well as measurements of soil structure (e.g., bulk density) and chemistry (e.g., carbon). Publically-archiving regional datasets of standardized, co-located, and geo-referenced plant trait measurements will advance the ability of earth system models to capture species-level climate sensitivity at regional to global scales.« less

The site-scale saturated zone flow model for Yucca Mountain: Calibration of different conceptual models and their impact on flow paths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zyvoloski, G.; Kwicklis, E.; Eddebbarh, A.-A.; Arnold, B.; Faunt, C.; Robinson, B.A.

2003-01-01

This paper presents several different conceptual models of the Large Hydraulic Gradient (LHG) region north of Yucca Mountain and describes the impact of those models on groundwater flow near the potential high-level repository site. The results are based on a numerical model of site-scale saturated zone beneath Yucca Mountain. This model is used for performance assessment predictions of radionuclide transport and to guide future data collection and modeling activities. The numerical model is calibrated by matching available water level measurements using parameter estimation techniques, along with more informal comparisons of the model to hydrologic and geochemical information. The model software (hydrologic simulation code FEHM and parameter estimation software PEST) and model setup allows for efficient calibration of multiple conceptual models. Until now, the Large Hydraulic Gradient has been simulated using a low-permeability, east-west oriented feature, even though direct evidence for this feature is lacking. In addition to this model, we investigate and calibrate three additional conceptual models of the Large Hydraulic Gradient, all of which are based on a presumed zone of hydrothermal chemical alteration north of Yucca Mountain. After examining the heads and permeabilities obtained from the calibrated models, we present particle pathways from the potential repository that record differences in the predicted groundwater flow regime. The results show that Large Hydraulic Gradient can be represented with the alternate conceptual models that include the hydrothermally altered zone. The predicted pathways are mildly sensitive to the choice of the conceptual model and more sensitive to the quality of calibration in the vicinity on the repository. These differences are most likely due to different degrees of fit of model to data, and do not represent important differences in hydrologic conditions for the different conceptual models. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Variation of Accumulation Rates Over the Last Eight Centuries on the East Antarctic Plateau Derived from Volcanic Signals in Ice Cores

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anschuetz, H.; Sinisalo, A.; Isaksson, E.; McConnell, J. R.; Hamran, S.-E.; Bisiaux, M. M.; Pasteris, D.; Neumann, T. A.; Winther, J.-G.

2011-01-01

Volcanic signatures in ice-core records provide an excellent means to date the cores and obtain information about accumulation rates. From several ice cores it is thus possible to extract a spatio-temporal accumulation pattern. We show records of electrical conductivity and sulfur from firn cores from the Norwegian-USA scientific traverse during the International Polar Year 2007-2009 (IPY) through East Antarctica. Major volcanic eruptions are identified and used to assess century-scale accumulation changes. The largest changes seem to occur in the most recent decades with accumulation over the period 1963- 2007/08 being up to 25 % different from the long-term record. There is no clear overall trend, some sites show an increase in accumulation over the period 1963 to present while others show a decrease. Almost all of the sites above 3200 m above sea level (asl) suggest a decrease. These sites also show a significantly lower accumulation value than large-scale assessments both for the period 1963 to present and for the long-term mean at the respective drill sites. The spatial accumulation distribution is influenced mainly by elevation and distance to the ocean (continentality), as expected. Ground-penetrating radar data around the drill sites show a spatial variability within 10-20 % over several tens of kilometers, indicating that our drill sites are well representative for the area around them. Our results are important for large-scale assessments of Antarctic mass balance and model validation.

Assessing, mapping and validating site-specific ecotoxicological risk for pesticide mixtures: a case study for small scale hot spots in aquatic and terrestrial environments.

PubMed

Vaj, Claudia; Barmaz, Stefania; Sørensen, Peter Borgen; Spurgeon, David; Vighi, Marco

2011-11-01

Mixture toxicity is a real world problem and as such requires risk assessment solutions that can be applied within different geographic regions, across different spatial scales and in situations where the quantity of data available for the assessment varies. Moreover, the need for site specific procedures for assessing ecotoxicological risk for non-target species in non-target ecosystems also has to be recognised. The work presented in the paper addresses the real world effects of pesticide mixtures on natural communities. Initially, the location of risk hotspots is theoretically estimated through exposure modelling and the use of available toxicity data to predict potential community effects. The concept of Concentration Addition (CA) is applied to describe responses resulting from exposure of multiple pesticides The developed and refined exposure models are georeferenced (GIS-based) and include environmental and physico-chemical parameters, and site specific information on pesticide usage and land use. As a test of the risk assessment framework, the procedures have been applied on a suitable study areas, notably the River Meolo basin (Northern Italy), a catchment characterised by intensive agriculture, as well as comparative area for some assessments. Within the studied areas, the risks for individual chemicals and complex mixtures have been assessed on aquatic and terrestrial aboveground and belowground communities. Results from ecological surveys have been used to validate these risk assessment model predictions. Value and limitation of the approaches are described and the possibilities for larger scale applications in risk assessment are also discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climatic and geomorphic controls on low flow hydrograph recession

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandler, D. G.; Daley, M.; Kasaee Roodsari, B.; Shaw, S. B.; McNamara, J.

2017-12-01

Large scale operational hydrologic models should be capable of predicting seasonally low flow and stream intermittency as well as peak flow and inundation. We contrast examples of controls on low flow exerted by geomorphic and climatic setting at small catchment study sites in the Northeast and Northwest of the USA to indicate differences in hydrologic processes. Both regions accumulate winter snowpack and have an extended spring freshet, but the Reynolds Creek CZO and Dry Creek Experimental Watershed (both in Idaho mountains) experience a protracted summer drought, with occasional storms whereas precipitation free periods greater than five days are uncommon in the hilly Sleepers River (Vermont), and Yellow Barn State Forest (New York) and at Ley Creek, on a glacial plain (New York). At both Dry Creek and Reynolds Creek, headwater stream flow direction was transverse to groundwater, and below field capacity discharge was well related to either the ground water surface or corresponded to inversion of the hydraulic gradient over the depth of the soil. At all sites except Ley Creek, the headwaters became intermittent as the main tributary discharge declined, often disconnecting the surface source springs and seeps from the valley bottom stream. At the Idaho sites recession analysis for main stem was further complicated by consumptive use for irrigation and domestic wells. Modeling the recession characteristics of these various settings and across stream orders results in a variety of exponent values for power law scaling approaches that indicate the importance of site context for modeling low flow.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelly, V.A.; Beach, J.A.; Statham, W.H.

The Savannah River Site (SRS) is a Department of Energy (DOE) facility located near Aiken, South Carolina which is currently operated and managed by Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC). The Sanitary Landfill (Sanitary Landfill) at the SRS is located approximately 2,000 feet Northwest of Upper Three Runs Creek (UTRC) on an approximately 70 acre site located south of Road C between the SRS B-Area and UTRC. The Sanitary Landfill has been receiving wastes since 1974 and operates as an unlined trench and fill operation. The original landfill site was 32 acres. This area reached its capacity around 1987 and amore » Northern Expansion of 16 acres and a Southern Expansion of 22 acres were added in 1987. The Northern Expansion has not been used for waste disposal to date and the Southern Expansion is expected to reach capacity in 1992 or 1993. The waste received at the Sanitary Landfill is predominantly paper, plastics, rubber, wood, metal, cardboard, rags saturated with degreasing solvents, pesticide bags, empty cans, and asbestos in bags. The landfill is not supposed to receive any radioactive wastes. However, tritium has been detected in the groundwater at the site. Gross alpha and gross beta are also evaluated at the landfill. The objectives of this modeling study are twofold: (1) to create a local scale Sanitary Landfill flow model to study hydraulic effects resulting from capping the Sanitary Landfill; and (2) to create a Sanitary Landfill local scale transport model to support ACL Demonstrations for a RCRA Part B Permit Renewal.« less

Numerical study of Asian dust transport during the springtime of 2001 simulated with the Chemical Weather Forecasting System (CFORS) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uno, Itsushi; Satake, Shinsuke; Carmichael, Gregory R.; Tang, Youhua; Wang, Zifa; Takemura, Toshihiko; Sugimoto, Nobuo; Shimizu, Atsushi; Murayama, Toshiyuki; Cahill, Thomas A.; Cliff, Steven; Uematsu, Mitsuo; Ohta, Sachio; Quinn, Patricia K.; Bates, Timothy S.

2004-10-01

The regional-scale aerosol transport model Chemical Weather Forecasting System (CFORS) is used for analysis of large-scale dust phenomena during the Asian Pacific Regional Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) intensive observation. Dust modeling results are examined with the surface weather reports, satellite-derived dust index (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AI)), Mie-scattering lidar observation, and surface aerosol observations. The CFORS dust results are shown to accurately reproduce many of the important observed features. Model analysis shows that the simulated dust vertical loading correlates well with TOMS AI and that the dust loading is transported with the meandering of the synoptic-scale temperature field at the 500-hPa level. Quantitative examination of aerosol optical depth shows that model predictions are within 20% difference of the lidar observations for the major dust episodes. The structure of the ACE-Asia Perfect Dust Storm, which occurred in early April, is clarified with the help of the CFORS model analysis. This storm consisted of two boundary layer components and one elevated dust (>6-km height) feature (resulting from the movement of two large low-pressure systems). Time variation of the CFORS dust fields shows the correct onset timing of the elevated dust for each observation site, but the model results tend to overpredict dust concentrations at lower latitude sites. The horizontal transport flux at 130°E longitude is examined, and the overall dust transport flux at 130°E during March-April is evaluated to be 55 Tg.

Effect of thematic map misclassification on landscape multi-metric assessment.

PubMed

Kleindl, William J; Powell, Scott L; Hauer, F Richard

2015-06-01

Advancements in remote sensing and computational tools have increased our awareness of large-scale environmental problems, thereby creating a need for monitoring, assessment, and management at these scales. Over the last decade, several watershed and regional multi-metric indices have been developed to assist decision-makers with planning actions of these scales. However, these tools use remote-sensing products that are subject to land-cover misclassification, and these errors are rarely incorporated in the assessment results. Here, we examined the sensitivity of a landscape-scale multi-metric index (MMI) to error from thematic land-cover misclassification and the implications of this uncertainty for resource management decisions. Through a case study, we used a simplified floodplain MMI assessment tool, whose metrics were derived from Landsat thematic maps, to initially provide results that were naive to thematic misclassification error. Using a Monte Carlo simulation model, we then incorporated map misclassification error into our MMI, resulting in four important conclusions: (1) each metric had a different sensitivity to error; (2) within each metric, the bias between the error-naive metric scores and simulated scores that incorporate potential error varied in magnitude and direction depending on the underlying land cover at each assessment site; (3) collectively, when the metrics were combined into a multi-metric index, the effects were attenuated; and (4) the index bias indicated that our naive assessment model may overestimate floodplain condition of sites with limited human impacts and, to a lesser extent, either over- or underestimated floodplain condition of sites with mixed land use.

Hierarchical drivers of reef-fish metacommunity structure.

PubMed

MacNeil, M Aaron; Graham, Nicholas A J; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Kulbicki, Michel; Galzin, René; Harmelin-Vivien, Mireille; Rushton, Steven P

2009-01-01

Coral reefs are highly complex ecological systems, where multiple processes interact across scales in space and time to create assemblages of exceptionally high biodiversity. Despite the increasing frequency of hierarchically structured sampling programs used in coral-reef science, little progress has been made in quantifying the relative importance of processes operating across multiple scales. The vast majority of reef studies are conducted, or at least analyzed, at a single spatial scale, ignoring the implicitly hierarchical structure of the overall system in favor of small-scale experiments or large-scale observations. Here we demonstrate how alpha (mean local number of species), beta diversity (degree of species dissimilarity among local sites), and gamma diversity (overall species richness) vary with spatial scale, and using a hierarchical, information-theoretic approach, we evaluate the relative importance of site-, reef-, and atoll-level processes driving the fish metacommunity structure among 10 atolls in French Polynesia. Process-based models, representing well-established hypotheses about drivers of reef-fish community structure, were assembled into a candidate set of 12 hierarchical linear models. Variation in fish abundance, biomass, and species richness were unevenly distributed among transect, reef, and atoll levels, establishing the relative contribution of variation at these spatial scales to the structure of the metacommunity. Reef-fish biomass, species richness, and the abundance of most functional-groups corresponded primarily with transect-level habitat diversity and atoll-lagoon size, whereas detritivore and grazer abundances were largely correlated with potential covariates of larval dispersal. Our findings show that (1) within-transect and among-atoll factors primarily drive the relationship between alpha and gamma diversity in this reef-fish metacommunity; (2) habitat is the primary correlate with reef-fish metacommunity structure at multiple spatial scales; and (3) inter-atoll connectedness was poorly correlated with the nonrandom clustering of reef-fish species. These results demonstrate the importance of modeling hierarchical data and processes in understanding reef-fish metacommunity structure.

Linking structure to function: The search for active sites in non-platinum group metal oxygen reduction reaction catalysts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holby, Edward F.; Zelenay, Piotr

Atomic-scale structures of oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) active sites in non-platinum group metal (non-PGM) catalysts, made from pyrolysis of carbon, nitrogen, and transition-metal (TM) precursors have been the subject of continuing discussion in the fuel cell electrocatalysis research community. We found that quantum chemical modeling is a path forward for understanding of these materials and how they catalyze the ORR. Here, we demonstrate through literature examples of how such modeling can be used to better understand non-PGM ORR active site relative stability and activity and how such efforts can also aid in the interpretation of experimental signatures produced by thesemore » materials.« less

Linking structure to function: The search for active sites in non-platinum group metal oxygen reduction reaction catalysts

DOE PAGES

Holby, Edward F.; Zelenay, Piotr

2016-05-17

Atomic-scale structures of oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) active sites in non-platinum group metal (non-PGM) catalysts, made from pyrolysis of carbon, nitrogen, and transition-metal (TM) precursors have been the subject of continuing discussion in the fuel cell electrocatalysis research community. We found that quantum chemical modeling is a path forward for understanding of these materials and how they catalyze the ORR. Here, we demonstrate through literature examples of how such modeling can be used to better understand non-PGM ORR active site relative stability and activity and how such efforts can also aid in the interpretation of experimental signatures produced by thesemore » materials.« less

Wayfinding in Social Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liben-Nowell, David

With the recent explosion of popularity of commercial social-networking sites like Facebook and MySpace, the size of social networks that can be studied scientifically has passed from the scale traditionally studied by sociologists and anthropologists to the scale of networks more typically studied by computer scientists. In this chapter, I will highlight a recent line of computational research into the modeling and analysis of the small-world phenomenon - the observation that typical pairs of people in a social network are connected by very short chains of intermediate friends - and the ability of members of a large social network to collectively find efficient routes to reach individuals in the network. I will survey several recent mathematical models of social networks that account for these phenomena, with an emphasis on both the provable properties of these social-network models and the empirical validation of the models against real large-scale social-network data.

Seismic imaging and velocity structure around the JFAST drill site in the Japan Trench: low Vp, high Vp/ Vs in the transparent frontal prism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Kodaira, Shuichi; Cook, Becky J.; Jeppson, Tamara; Kasaya, Takafumi; Yamamoto, Yojiro; Hashimoto, Yoshitaka; Yamaguchi, Mika; Obana, Koichiro; Fujie, Gou

2014-12-01

Seismic image and velocity models were obtained from a newly conducted seismic survey around the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project (JFAST) drill site in the Japan Trench. Pre-stack depth migration (PSDM) analysis was applied to the multichannel seismic reflection data to produce an accurate depth seismic profile together with a P wave velocity model along a line that crosses the JFAST site location. The seismic profile images the subduction zone at a regional scale. The frontal prism where the drill site is located corresponds to a typically seismically transparent (or chaotic) zone with several landward-dipping semi-continuous reflections. The boundary between the Cretaceous backstop and the frontal prism is marked by a prominent landward-dipping reflection. The P wave velocity model derived from the PSDM analysis shows low velocity in the frontal prism and velocity reversal across the backstop interface. The PSDM velocity model around the drill site is similar to the P wave velocity model calculated from the ocean bottom seismograph (OBS) data and agrees with the P wave velocities measured from the core experiments. The average Vp/ Vs in the hanging wall sediments around the drill site, as derived from OBS data, is significantly larger than that obtained from core sample measurements.

Evaluation of WRF Model Against Satellite and Field Measurements During ARM March 2000 IOP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

2003-12-01

Meso-scale WRF model is employed to simulate the organization of clouds related with the cyclogenesis occurred during March 1-4, 2000 over ARM SGP CART site. Qualitative comparisons of simulated clouds with GOES8 satellite images show that the WRF model can capture the main features of clouds related with the cyclogenesis. The simulated precipitation patterns also match the Radar reflectivity images well. Further evaluation of the simulated features on GCM grid-scale is conducted against ARM field measurements. The evaluation shows that the evolutions of the simulated state fields such as temperature and moisture, the simulated wind fields and the derived large-scale temperature and moisture tendencies closely follow the observed patterns. These results encourages us to use meso-scale WRF model as a tool to verify the performance of GCMs in simulating cloud feedback processes related with the frontal clouds such that we can test and validate the current cloud parameterizations in climate models, and make possible improvements to different components of current cloud parameterizations in GCMs.

Blending Multiple Nitrogen Dioxide Data Sources for Neighborhood Estimates of Long-Term Exposure for Health Research.

PubMed

Hanigan, Ivan C; Williamson, Grant J; Knibbs, Luke D; Horsley, Joshua; Rolfe, Margaret I; Cope, Martin; Barnett, Adrian G; Cowie, Christine T; Heyworth, Jane S; Serre, Marc L; Jalaludin, Bin; Morgan, Geoffrey G

2017-11-07

Exposure to traffic related nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) air pollution is associated with adverse health outcomes. Average pollutant concentrations for fixed monitoring sites are often used to estimate exposures for health studies, however these can be imprecise due to difficulty and cost of spatial modeling at the resolution of neighborhoods (e.g., a scale of tens of meters) rather than at a coarse scale (around several kilometers). The objective of this study was to derive improved estimates of neighborhood NO 2 concentrations by blending measurements with modeled predictions in Sydney, Australia (a low pollution environment). We implemented the Bayesian maximum entropy approach to blend data with uncertainty defined using informative priors. We compiled NO 2 data from fixed-site monitors, chemical transport models, and satellite-based land use regression models to estimate neighborhood annual average NO 2 . The spatial model produced a posterior probability density function of estimated annual average concentrations that spanned an order of magnitude from 3 to 35 ppb. Validation using independent data showed improvement, with root mean squared error improvement of 6% compared with the land use regression model and 16% over the chemical transport model. These estimates will be used in studies of health effects and should minimize misclassification bias.

A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard

2016-04-01

Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

Numerical analysis of field-scale transport of bromacil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, David; Tauber-Yasur, Inbar; Laufer, Asher; Yaron, Bruno

Field-scale transport of bromacil (5-bromo-3- sec-butyl-6-methyluracil) was analyzed using two different model processes for local description of the transport. The first was the classical, one-region convection dispersion equation (CDE) model while the second was the two-region, mobile-immobile (MIM) model. The analyses were performed by means of detailed three-dimensional, numerical simulations of the flow and the transport [Russo, D., Zaidel, J. and Laufer, A., Numerical analysis of flow and transport in a three-dimensional partially saturated heterogeneous soil. Water Resour. Res., 1998, in press], employing local soil hydraulic properties parameters from field measurements and local adsorption/desorption coefficients and the first-order degradation rate coefficient from laboratory measurements. Results of the analyses suggest that for a given flow regime, mass exchange between the mobile and the immobile regions retards the bromacil degradation, considerably affects the distribution of the bromacil resident concentration, c, at relatively large travel times, slightly affects the spatial moments of the distribution of c, and increases the skewing of the bromacil breakthrough and the uncertainty in its prediction, compared with the case in which the soil contained only a single (mobile) region. Mean and standard deviation of the simulated concentration profiles at various elapsed times were compared with measurements from a field-scale transport experiment [Tauber-Yasur, I., Hadas, A., Russo, D. and Yaron, B., Leaching of terbuthylazine and bromacil through field soils. Water, Air Soil Poln., 1998, in press] conducted at the Bet Dagan site. Given the limitations of the present study (e.g. the lack of detailed field data on the spatial variability of the soil chemical properties) the main conclusion of the present study is that the field-scale transport of bromacil at the Bet Dagan site is better quantified with the MIM model than the CDE model.

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliott, Joshua; Kelly, David; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Glotter, Michael; Jhunjhnuwala, Kanika; Best, Neil; Wilde, Michael; Foster, Ian

2014-01-01

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

Application of CFD modelling at a full-scale ozonation plant for the removal of micropollutants from secondary effluent.

PubMed

Launer, M; Lyko, S; Fahlenkamp, H; Jagemann, P; Ehrhard, P

2013-01-01

Since November 2009, Germany's first full-scale ozonation plant for tertiary treatment of secondary effluent is in continuous operation. A kinetic model was developed and combined with the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software ANSYS(®) CFX(®) to simulate the removal of micropollutants from secondary effluents. Input data like reaction rate constants and initial concentrations of bulk components of the effluent organic matter (EfOM) were derived from experimental batch tests. Additionally, well-known correlations for the mass transfer were implemented into the simulation model. The CFD model was calibrated and validated by full-scale process data and by analytical measurements for micropollutants. The results show a good consistency of simulated values and measured data. Therewith, the validated CFD model described in this study proved to be suited for the application of secondary effluent ozonation. By implementing site-specific ozone exposition and the given reactor geometry the described CFD model can be easily adopted for similar applications.

Linking in situ LAI and fine resolution remote sensing data to map reference LAI over cropland and grassland using geostatistical regression method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yaqian; Bo, Yanchen; Chai, Leilei; Liu, Xiaolong; Li, Aihua

2016-08-01

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is an important parameter of vegetation structure. A number of moderate resolution LAI products have been produced in urgent need of large scale vegetation monitoring. High resolution LAI reference maps are necessary to validate these LAI products. This study used a geostatistical regression (GR) method to estimate LAI reference maps by linking in situ LAI and Landsat TM/ETM+ and SPOT-HRV data over two cropland and two grassland sites. To explore the discrepancies of employing different vegetation indices (VIs) on estimating LAI reference maps, this study established the GR models for different VIs, including difference vegetation index (DVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and ratio vegetation index (RVI). To further assess the performance of the GR model, the results from the GR and Reduced Major Axis (RMA) models were compared. The results show that the performance of the GR model varies between the cropland and grassland sites. At the cropland sites, the GR model based on DVI provides the best estimation, while at the grassland sites, the GR model based on DVI performs poorly. Compared to the RMA model, the GR model improves the accuracy of reference LAI maps in terms of root mean square errors (RMSE) and bias.

Using proteomic data to assess a genome-scale "in silico" model of metal reducing bacteria in the simulation of field-scale uranium bioremediation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yabusaki, S.; Fang, Y.; Wilkins, M. J.; Long, P.; Rifle IFRC Science Team

2011-12-01

A series of field experiments in a shallow alluvial aquifer at a former uranium mill tailings site have demonstrated that indigenous bacteria can be stimulated with acetate to catalyze the conversion of hexavalent uranium in a groundwater plume to immobile solid-associated uranium in the +4 oxidation state. While this bioreduction of uranium has been shown to lower groundwater concentrations below actionable standards, a viable remediation methodology will need a mechanistic, predictive and quantitative understanding of the microbially-mediated reactions that catalyze the reduction of uranium in the context of site-specific processes, properties, and conditions. At the Rifle IFRC site, we are investigating the impacts on uranium behavior of pulsed acetate amendment, acetate-oxidizing iron and sulfate reducing bacteria, seasonal water table variation, spatially-variable physical (hydraulic conductivity, porosity) and geochemical (reactive surface area) material properties. The simulation of three-dimensional, variably saturated flow and biogeochemical reactive transport during a uranium bioremediation field experiment includes a genome-scale in silico model of Geobacter sp. to represent the Fe(III) terminal electron accepting process (TEAP). The Geobacter in silico model of cell-scale physiological metabolic pathways is comprised of hundreds of intra-cellular and environmental exchange reactions. One advantage of this approach is that the TEAP reaction stoichiometry and rate are now functions of the metabolic status of the microorganism. The linkage of in silico model reactions to specific Geobacter proteins has enabled the use of groundwater proteomic analyses to assess the accuracy of the model under evolving hydrologic and biogeochemical conditions. In this case, the largest predicted fluxes through in silico model reactions generally correspond to high abundances of proteins linked to those reactions (e.g. the condensation reaction catalyzed by the protein citrate synthase that generates citrate from acetyl-CoA and oxaloacetate). Model discrepancies with the proteomic data, such as the prediction of shifts associated with nitrogen limitation, revealed pathways in the in silico code that could be modified to more accurately predict metabolic processes that occur in the subsurface. The potential outcome of this approach is the engineering of electron donor (e.g., acetate), terminal electron acceptor [e.g., U(VI)], and biogeochemical conditions that enhance the desired metabolic pathways of the target microorganism(s) to effect cost-effective uranium bioreduction.

Determination of Large-Scale Cloud Ice Water Concentration by Combining Surface Radar and Satellite Data in Support of ARM SCM Activities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Guosheng

2013-03-15

Single-column modeling (SCM) is one of the key elements of Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) research initiatives for the development and testing of various physical parameterizations to be used in general circulation models (GCMs). The data required for use with an SCM include observed vertical profiles of temperature, water vapor, and condensed water, as well as the large-scale vertical motion and tendencies of temperature, water vapor, and condensed water due to horizontal advection. Surface-based measurements operated at ARM sites and upper-air sounding networks supply most of the required variables for model inputs, but do not provide the horizontal advection term ofmore » condensed water. Since surface cloud radar and microwave radiometer observations at ARM sites are single-point measurements, they can provide the amount of condensed water at the location of observation sites, but not a horizontal distribution of condensed water contents. Consequently, observational data for the large-scale advection tendencies of condensed water have not been available to the ARM cloud modeling community based on surface observations alone. This lack of advection data of water condensate could cause large uncertainties in SCM simulations. Additionally, to evaluate GCMs cloud physical parameterization, we need to compare GCM results with observed cloud water amounts over a scale that is large enough to be comparable to what a GCM grid represents. To this end, the point-measurements at ARM surface sites are again not adequate. Therefore, cloud water observations over a large area are needed. The main goal of this project is to retrieve ice water contents over an area of 10 x 10 deg. surrounding the ARM sites by combining surface and satellite observations. Built on the progress made during previous ARM research, we have conducted the retrievals of 3-dimensional ice water content by combining surface radar/radiometer and satellite measurements, and have produced 3-D cloud ice water contents in support of cloud modeling activities. The approach of the study is to expand a (surface) point measurement to an (satellite) area measurement. That is, the study takes the advantage of the high quality cloud measurements (particularly cloud radar and microwave radiometer measurements) at the point of the ARM sites. We use the cloud ice water characteristics derived from the point measurement to guide/constrain a satellite retrieval algorithm, then use the satellite algorithm to derive the 3-D cloud ice water distributions within an 10° (latitude) x 10° (longitude) area. During the research period, we have developed, validated and improved our cloud ice water retrievals, and have produced and archived at ARM website as a PI-product of the 3-D cloud ice water contents using combined satellite high-frequency microwave and surface radar observations for SGP March 2000 IOP and TWP-ICE 2006 IOP over 10 deg. x 10 deg. area centered at ARM SGP central facility and Darwin sites. We have also worked on validation of the 3-D ice water product by CloudSat data, synergy with visible/infrared cloud ice water retrievals for better results at low ice water conditions, and created a long-term (several years) of ice water climatology in 10 x 10 deg. area of ARM SGP and TWP sites and then compared it with GCMs.« less

Computational Optimization and Characterization of Molecularly Imprinted Polymers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terracina, Jacob J.

Molecularly imprinted polymers (MIPs) are a class of materials containing sites capable of selectively binding to the imprinted target molecule. Computational chemistry techniques were used to study the effect of different fabrication parameters (the monomer-to-target ratios, pre-polymerization solvent, temperature, and pH) on the formation of the MIP binding sites. Imprinted binding sites were built in silico for the purposes of better characterizing the receptor - ligand interactions. Chiefly, the sites were characterized with respect to their selectivities and the heterogeneity between sites. First, a series of two-step molecular mechanics (MM) and quantum mechanics (QM) computational optimizations of monomer -- target systems was used to determine optimal monomer-to-target ratios for the MIPs. Imidazole- and xanthine-derived target molecules were studied. The investigation included both small-scale models (one-target) and larger scale models (five-targets). The optimal ratios differed between the small and larger scales. For the larger models containing multiple targets, binding-site surface area analysis was used to evaluate the heterogeneity of the sites. The more fully surrounded sites had greater binding energies. Molecular docking was then used to measure the selectivities of the QM-optimized binding sites by comparing the binding energies of the imprinted target to that of a structural analogue. Selectivity was also shown to improve as binding sites become more fully encased by the monomers. For internal sites, docking consistently showed selectivity favoring the molecules that had been imprinted via QM geometry optimizations. The computationally imprinted sites were shown to exhibit size-, shape-, and polarity-based selectivity. This represented a novel approach to investigate the selectivity and heterogeneity of imprinted polymer binding sites, by applying the rapid orientation screening of MM docking to the highly accurate QM-optimized geometries. Next, we sought to computationally construct and investigate binding sites for their enantioselectivity. Again, a two-step MM [special characters removed] QM optimization scheme was used to "computationally imprint" chiral molecules. Using docking techniques, the imprinted binding sites were shown to exhibit an enantioselective preference for the imprinted molecule over its enantiomer. Docking of structurally similar chiral molecules showed that the sites computationally imprinted with R- or S-tBOC-tyrosine were able to differentiate between R- and S-forms of other tyrosine derivatives. The cross-enantioselectivity did not hold for chiral molecules that did not share the tyrosine H-bonding functional group orientations. Further analysis of the individual monomer - target interactions within the binding site led us to conclude that H-bonding functional groups that are located immediately next to the target's chiral center, and therefore spatially fixed relative to the chiral center, will have a stronger contribution to the enantioselectivity of the site than those groups separated from the chiral center by two or more rotatable bonds. These models were the first computationally imprinted binding sites to exhibit this enantioselective preference for the imprinted target molecules. Finally, molecular dynamics (MD) was used to quantify H-bonding interactions between target molecules, monomers, and solvents representative of the pre-polymerization matrix. It was found that both target dimerization and solvent interference decrease the number of monomer - target H-bonds present. Systems were optimized via simulated annealing to create binding sites that were then subjected to molecular docking analysis. Docking showed that the presence of solvent had a detrimental effect on the sensitivity and selectivity of the sites, and that solvents with more H-bonding capabilities were more disruptive to the binding properties of the site. Dynamic simulations also showed that increasing the temperature of the solution can significantly decrease the number of H-bonds formed between the targets and monomers. It is believed that the monomer - target complexes formed within the pre-polymerization matrix are translated into the selective binding cavities formed during polymerization. Elucidating the nature of these interactions in silico improves our understanding of MIPs, ultimately allowing for more optimized sensing materials.

Development of Coarse Grained Models for Long Chain Alkanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyawali, Gaurav; Sternfield, Samuel; Hwang, In Chul; Rick, Steven; Kumar, Revati; Rick Group Team; Kumar Group Team

Modeling aggregation in aqueous solution is a challenge for molecular simulations as it involves long time scales, a range of length scales, and the correct balance of hydrophobic and hydrophilic interactions. We have developed a coarse-grained model fast enough for the rapid testing of molecular structures for their aggregation properties. This model, using the Stillinger-Weber potential, achieves efficiency through a reduction in the number of interaction sites and the use of short-ranged interactions. The model can be two to three orders of magnitude more efficient than conventional all atom simulations, yet through a careful parameterization process and the use of many-body interactions can be remarkably accurate. We have developed models for long chain alkanes in water that reproduce the thermodynamics and structure of water-alkane and liquid alkane systems.

Microclimate Data Improve Predictions of Insect Abundance Models Based on Calibrated Spatiotemporal Temperatures.

PubMed

Rebaudo, François; Faye, Emile; Dangles, Olivier

2016-01-01

A large body of literature has recently recognized the role of microclimates in controlling the physiology and ecology of species, yet the relevance of fine-scale climatic data for modeling species performance and distribution remains a matter of debate. Using a 6-year monitoring of three potato moth species, major crop pests in the tropical Andes, we asked whether the spatiotemporal resolution of temperature data affect the predictions of models of moth performance and distribution. For this, we used three different climatic data sets: (i) the WorldClim dataset (global dataset), (ii) air temperature recorded using data loggers (weather station dataset), and (iii) air crop canopy temperature (microclimate dataset). We developed a statistical procedure to calibrate all datasets to monthly and yearly variation in temperatures, while keeping both spatial and temporal variances (air monthly temperature at 1 km² for the WorldClim dataset, air hourly temperature for the weather station, and air minute temperature over 250 m radius disks for the microclimate dataset). Then, we computed pest performances based on these three datasets. Results for temperature ranging from 9 to 11°C revealed discrepancies in the simulation outputs in both survival and development rates depending on the spatiotemporal resolution of the temperature dataset. Temperature and simulated pest performances were then combined into multiple linear regression models to compare predicted vs. field data. We used an additional set of study sites to test the ability of the results of our model to be extrapolated over larger scales. Results showed that the model implemented with microclimatic data best predicted observed pest abundances for our study sites, but was less accurate than the global dataset model when performed at larger scales. Our simulations therefore stress the importance to consider different temperature datasets depending on the issue to be solved in order to accurately predict species abundances. In conclusion, keeping in mind that the mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected and modeled remains a key issue, temperature dataset selection should be balanced by the desired output spatiotemporal scale for better predicting pest dynamics and developing efficient pest management strategies.

Microclimate Data Improve Predictions of Insect Abundance Models Based on Calibrated Spatiotemporal Temperatures

PubMed Central

Rebaudo, François; Faye, Emile; Dangles, Olivier

2016-01-01

A large body of literature has recently recognized the role of microclimates in controlling the physiology and ecology of species, yet the relevance of fine-scale climatic data for modeling species performance and distribution remains a matter of debate. Using a 6-year monitoring of three potato moth species, major crop pests in the tropical Andes, we asked whether the spatiotemporal resolution of temperature data affect the predictions of models of moth performance and distribution. For this, we used three different climatic data sets: (i) the WorldClim dataset (global dataset), (ii) air temperature recorded using data loggers (weather station dataset), and (iii) air crop canopy temperature (microclimate dataset). We developed a statistical procedure to calibrate all datasets to monthly and yearly variation in temperatures, while keeping both spatial and temporal variances (air monthly temperature at 1 km² for the WorldClim dataset, air hourly temperature for the weather station, and air minute temperature over 250 m radius disks for the microclimate dataset). Then, we computed pest performances based on these three datasets. Results for temperature ranging from 9 to 11°C revealed discrepancies in the simulation outputs in both survival and development rates depending on the spatiotemporal resolution of the temperature dataset. Temperature and simulated pest performances were then combined into multiple linear regression models to compare predicted vs. field data. We used an additional set of study sites to test the ability of the results of our model to be extrapolated over larger scales. Results showed that the model implemented with microclimatic data best predicted observed pest abundances for our study sites, but was less accurate than the global dataset model when performed at larger scales. Our simulations therefore stress the importance to consider different temperature datasets depending on the issue to be solved in order to accurately predict species abundances. In conclusion, keeping in mind that the mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected and modeled remains a key issue, temperature dataset selection should be balanced by the desired output spatiotemporal scale for better predicting pest dynamics and developing efficient pest management strategies. PMID:27148077

Operations Research techniques in the management of large-scale reforestation programs

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; D.E. Teeguarden

1978-01-01

A reforestation planning system for the Douglas-fir region of the Western United States is described. Part of the system is a simulation model to predict plantation growth and to determine economic thinning regimes and rotation ages as a function of site characteristics, initial density, reforestation costs, and management constraints. A second model estimates the...

Integrating single-species management and landscape conservation using regional habitat occurrence models: The northern goshawk in the Southwest, USA

Treesearch

Brett G. Dickson; Thomas D. Sisk; Steven E. Sesnie; Richard T. Reynolds; Steven S. Rosenstock; Christina D. Vojta; Michael F. Ingraldi; Jill M. Rundall

2014-01-01

Conservation planners and land managers are often confronted with scale-associated challenges when assessing the relationship between land management objectives and species conservation. Conservation of individual species typically involves site-level analyses of habitat, whereas land management focuses on larger spatial extents. New models are needed to more...

Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves

Treesearch

Laura Phillips-Mao; Susan M. Galatowitsch; Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

2016-01-01

Incorporating climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a conservation...

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display in Orlando

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display. A full-scale model of the James Webb Space Telescope was built by the prime contractor, Northrop Grumman, to provide a better understanding of the size, scale and complexity of this satellite. The model is constructed mainly of aluminum and steel, weighs 12,000 lb., and is approximately 80 feet long, 40 feet wide and 40 feet tall. The model requires 2 trucks to ship it and assembly takes a crew of 12 approximately four days. This model has traveled to a few sites since 2005. The photographs below were taken at some of its destinations. The model was on display at The International Society for Optical Engineering's (SPIE) week-long Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentations conference,May 25 - 30, 2006. Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/Dr Mark Clampin NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Crustal density contrast detection by global gravity and topography models and in-situ gravity observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claessens, S. J.

2016-12-01

Mass density contrasts in the Earth's crust can be detected using an inversion of terrestrial or airborne gravity data. This contribution shows a technique to detect short-scale density contrasts using in-situ gravity observations in combination with a high-resolution global gravity model that includes variations in the gravity field due to topography. The technique is exemplified at various test sites using the Global Gravity Model Plus (GGMplus), which is a 7.2 arcsec resolution model of the Earth's gravitational field, covering all land masses and near-coastal areas within +/- 60° latitude. The model is a composite of GRACE and GOCE satellite observations, the EGM2008 global gravity model, and short-scale topographic gravity effects. Since variations in the Earth's gravity field due to topography are successfully modelled by GGMplus, any remaining differences with in-situ gravity observations are primarily due to mass density variations. It is shown that this technique effectively filters out large-scale density variations, and highlights short-scale near-surface density contrasts in the Earth's crust. Numerical results using recent high-density gravity surveys are presented, which indicate a strong correlation between density contrasts found and known lines of geological significance.

The synergistic use of models and observations: understanding the mechanisms behind observed biomass dynamics at 14 Amazonian field sites and the implications for future biomass change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levine, N. M.; Galbraith, D.; Christoffersen, B. J.; Imbuzeiro, H. A.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Malhi, Y.; Saleska, S. R.; Costa, M. H.; Phillips, O.; Andrade, A.; Moorcroft, P. R.

2011-12-01

The Amazonian rainforests play a vital role in global water, energy and carbon cycling. The sensitivity of this system to natural and anthropogenic disturbances therefore has important implications for the global climate. Some global models have predicted large-scale forest dieback and the savannization of Amazonia over the next century [Meehl et al., 2007]. While several studies have demonstrated the sensitivity of dynamic global vegetation models to changes in temperature, precipitation, and dry season length [e.g. Galbraith et al., 2010; Good et al., 2011], the ability of these models to accurately reproduce ecosystem dynamics of present-day transitional or low biomass tropical forests has not been demonstrated. A model-data intercomparison was conducted with four state-of-the-art terrestrial ecosystem models to evaluate the ability of these models to accurately represent structure, function, and long-term biomass dynamics over a range of Amazonian ecosystems. Each modeling group conducted a series of simulations for 14 sites including mature forest, transitional forest, savannah, and agricultural/pasture sites. All models were run using standard physical parameters and the same initialization procedure. Model results were compared against forest inventory and dendrometer data in addition to flux tower measurements. While the models compared well against field observations for the mature forest sites, significant differences were observed between predicted and measured ecosystem structure and dynamics for the transitional forest and savannah sites. The length of the dry season and soil sand content were good predictors of model performance. In addition, for the big leaf models, model performance was highest for sites dominated by late successional trees and lowest for sites with predominantly early and mid-successional trees. This study provides insight into tropical forest function and sensitivity to environmental conditions that will aid in predictions of the response of the Amazonian rainforest to future anthropogenically induced changes.

Uncertainty in the modelling of spatial and temporal patterns of shallow groundwater flow paths: The role of geological and hydrological site information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodward, Simon J. R.; Wöhling, Thomas; Stenger, Roland

2016-03-01

Understanding the hydrological and hydrogeochemical responses of hillslopes and other small scale groundwater systems requires mapping the velocity and direction of groundwater flow relative to the controlling subsurface material features. Since point observations of subsurface materials and groundwater head are often the basis for modelling these complex, dynamic, three-dimensional systems, considerable uncertainties are inevitable, but are rarely assessed. This study explored whether piezometric head data measured at high spatial and temporal resolution over six years at a hillslope research site provided sufficient information to determine the flow paths that transfer nitrate leached from the soil zone through the shallow saturated zone into a nearby wetland and stream. Transient groundwater flow paths were modelled using MODFLOW and MODPATH, with spatial patterns of hydraulic conductivity in the three material layers at the site being estimated by regularised pilot point calibration using PEST, constrained by slug test estimates of saturated hydraulic conductivity at several locations. Subsequent Null Space Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis showed that this data was not sufficient to definitively determine the spatial pattern of hydraulic conductivity at the site, although modelled water table dynamics matched the measured heads with acceptable accuracy in space and time. Particle tracking analysis predicted that the saturated flow direction was similar throughout the year as the water table rose and fell, but was not aligned with either the ground surface or subsurface material contours; indeed the subsurface material layers, having relatively similar hydraulic properties, appeared to have little effect on saturated water flow at the site. Flow path uncertainty analysis showed that, while accurate flow path direction or velocity could not be determined on the basis of the available head and slug test data alone, the origin of well water samples relative to the material layers and site contour could still be broadly deduced. This study highlights both the challenge of collecting suitably informative field data with which to characterise subsurface hydrology, and the power of modern calibration and uncertainty modelling techniques to assess flow path uncertainty in hillslopes and other small scale systems.

Watershed regressions for pesticides (warp) models for predicting atrazine concentrations in Corn Belt streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.

2012-01-01

Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) models, previously developed for atrazine at the national scale, are improved for application to the United States (U.S.) Corn Belt region by developing region-specific models that include watershed characteristics that are influential in predicting atrazine concentration statistics within the Corn Belt. WARP models for the Corn Belt (WARP-CB) were developed for annual maximum moving-average (14-, 21-, 30-, 60-, and 90-day durations) and annual 95th-percentile atrazine concentrations in streams of the Corn Belt region. The WARP-CB models accounted for 53 to 62% of the variability in the various concentration statistics among the model-development sites. Model predictions were within a factor of 5 of the observed concentration statistic for over 90% of the model-development sites. The WARP-CB residuals and uncertainty are lower than those of the National WARP model for the same sites. Although atrazine-use intensity is the most important explanatory variable in the National WARP models, it is not a significant variable in the WARP-CB models. The WARP-CB models provide improved predictions for Corn Belt streams draining watersheds with atrazine-use intensities of 17 kg/km2 of watershed area or greater.

Räumliche Charakterisierung der hydraulischen Leitfähigkeit in alluvialen Schotter-Grundwasserleitern: Ein Methodenvergleich

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diem, Samuel; Vogt, Tobias; Hoehn, Eduard

2010-12-01

For groundwater transport modeling on a scale of 10-100 m, detailed information about the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity is of great importance. At a test site (10×20 m) in the alluvial gravel-and-sand aquifer of the perialpine Thur valley (Switzerland), four different methods were applied on different scales to assess this parameter. A comparison of the results showed that multilevel slug tests give reliable results at the required scale. For its analysis, a plausible value of the anisotropy ratio of hydraulic conductivity ( K v / K h ) is needed, which was calculated using a pumping test. The integral results of pumping tests provide an upper boundary of the natural spectrum of hydraulic conductivity at the scale of the test site. Flowmeter logs are recommended if the relative distribution of hydraulic conductivity is of primary importance, while sieve analyses can be used if only a rough estimate of hydraulic conductivity is acceptable.

Investigating the Influence of Remedial Capping on the Hydrological, Geochemical, and Microbial Processes that Control Subsurface Contaminant Migration at WAG 5 on the Oak Ridge Reservation: Implications toward Long-Term Stewardship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jardine, P. M.; Mehlhorn, T. L.

2006-05-01

The following research investigated the effectiveness of an aggressive, large scale remedial action that is occurring to subsurface waste trenches containing radioactive and organic waste at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The site is being remediated as one of the top cleanup prioritization for the Oak Ridge Accelerated Remediation endeavor. Site landlords, Bechtel Jacobs Co., LLC (BJC) are installing a minimal RCRA cap with the primary objective of controlling the infiltration of storm water into the hundreds of unconfined waste trenches containing radioactive and organic waste. The site now offers a unique scientific opportunity to track the kinetic evolution of post-cap processes influencing contaminant migration and immobilization, because we have many years of pre-cap coupled processes information and knowledge. Since the cap is certain to disrupt the near steady-state contaminant discharge profiles that have existed for many years from the site, we have been quantifying the influence of post-cap hydrological, geochemical, and microbial processes on contaminant discharge as a function of scale and time in an effort to assess local-scale cap influences versus regional scale groundwater flow influences on contaminant discharge. We have been allowed to maintain numerous groundwater monitoring wells at a field site and these have a rich historical data set with regard to hydrology, geochemistry, microbiology, and contaminant flux. Our objectives are to investigate cap induced changes in (1) groundwater and surface hydrology and contaminant flux, (2) geochemistry and contaminant speciation, and (3) microbial community structure and organic contaminant degradation and inorganic contaminant immobilization. Our approach monitors coupled processes during base-flow and during storm events in both the groundwater and surface water discharge from the site and the surrounding watershed. Pre- and post-cap data will than be modeled with a multiprocess, multicomponent, transport model which is linked to pre- and post-cap surface water hydrograph analysis from the site and the surrounding watershed. Our goal is to provide an improved fundamental understanding of the long-term fate and transport of contaminants and an improved ability to predict system response to remedial actions. The experimental and numerical results from this investigation will provide knowledge and information in previously unexplored areas of cap performance with regard to coupled hydrology, geochemistry, microbiology, and contaminant flux in humid regimes. The products will support DOE's mission of long-term stewardship of contaminated environments and be transferable to other site where similar remediation exists or is planned.

Characterisation of physical environmental factors on an intertidal sandflat, Manukau Harbour, New Zealand

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, R.G.; Hume, T.M.; Dolphin, T.J.; Green, M.O.; Walters, R.A.

1997-01-01

Physical environmental factors, including sediment characteristics, inundation time, tidal currents and wind waves, likely to influence the structure of the benthic community at meso-scales (1-100 m) were characterised for a sandflat off Wiroa Island (Manukau Harbour, New Zealand). In a 500 x 250 m study site, sediment characteristics and bed topography were mostly homogenous apart from patches of low-relief ridges and runnels. Field measurements and hydrodynamic modelling portray a complex picture of sediment or particulate transport on the intertidal flat, involving interactions between the larger scale tidal processes and the smaller scale wave dynamics (1-4 s; 1-15 m). Peak tidal currents in isolation are incapable of eroding bottom sediments, but in combination with near-bed orbital currents generated by only very small wind waves, sediment transport can be initiated. Work done on the bed integrated over an entire tidal cycle by prevailing wind waves is greatest on the elevated and flatter slopes of the study site, where waves shoal over a wider surf zone and water depths remain shallow e enough for wave-orbital currents to disturb the bed. The study also provided physical descriptors quantifying static and hydrodynamic (tidal and wave) factors which were used in companion studies on ecological spatial modelling of bivalve distributions and micro-scale sediment reworking and transport.

Assessment of Mars Pathfinder landing site predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Golombek, M.P.; Moore, H.J.; Haldemann, A.F.C.; Parker, T.J.; Schofield, J.T.

1999-01-01

Remote sensing data at scales of kilometers and an Earth analog were used to accurately predict the characteristics of the Mars Pathfinder landing site at a scale of meters. The surface surrounding the Mars Pathfinder lander in Ares Vallis appears consistent with orbital interpretations, namely, that it would be a rocky plain composed of materials deposited by catastrophic floods. The surface and observed maximum clast size appears similar to predictions based on an analogous surface of the Ephrata Fan in the Channeled Scabland of Washington state. The elevation of the site measured by relatively small footprint delay-Doppler radar is within 100 m of that determined by two-way ranging and Doppler tracking of the spacecraft. The nearly equal elevations of the Mars Pathfinder and Viking Lander 1 sites allowed a prediction of the atmospheric conditions with altitude (pressure, temperature, and winds) that were well within the entry, descent, and landing design margins. High-resolution (~38 m/pixel) Viking Orbiter 1 images showed a sparsely cratered surface with small knobs with relatively low slopes, consistent with observations of these features from the lander. Measured rock abundance is within 10% of that expected from Viking orbiter thermal observations and models. The fractional area covered by large, potentially hazardous rocks observed is similar to that estimated from model rock distributions based on data from the Viking landing sites, Earth analog sites, and total rock abundance. The bulk and fine-component thermal inertias measured from orbit are similar to those calculated from the observed rock size-frequency distribution. A simple radar echo model based on the reflectivity of the soil (estimated from its bulk density), and the measured fraction of area covered by rocks was used to approximate the quasi-specular and diffuse components of the Earth-based radar echos. Color and albedo orbiter data were used to predict the relatively dust free or unweathered surface around the Pathfinder lander compared to the Viking landing sites. Comparisons with the experiences of selecting the Viking landing sites demonstrate the enormous benefit the Viking data and its analyses and models had on the successful predictions of the Pathfinder site. The Pathfinder experience demonstrates that, in certain locations, geologic processes observed in orbiter data can be used to infer surface characteristics where those processes dominate over other processes affecting the Martian surface layer. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.

Soil moisture from ground-based networks and the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 Model: Are the right values somewhere in between?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, T. G.; Scanlon, B. R.; Long, D.; Young, M.

2013-12-01

Soil moisture is the most enigmatic component of the water balance; nonetheless, it is inherently tied to every component of the hydrologic cycle, affecting the partitioning of both water and energy at the land surface. However, our ability to assess soil water storage capacity and status through measurement or modeling is challenged by error and scale. Soil moisture is as difficult to measure as it is to model, yet land surface models and remote sensing products require some means of validation. Here we compare the three major soil moisture monitoring networks across the US, including the USDA Soil Climate Assessment Network (SCAN), NOAA Climate Reference Network (USCRN), and Cosmic Ray Soil Moisture Observing System (COSMOS) to the soil moisture simulated using the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Phase 2. NLDAS runs in near real-time on a 0.125° (12 km) grid over the US, producing ensemble model outputs of surface fluxes and storage. We focus primarily on soil water storage (SWS) in the upper 0-0.1 m zone from the Noah Land Surface Model and secondarily on the effects of error propagation from atmospheric forcing and soil parameterization. No scaling of the observational data was attempted. We simply compared the extracted time series at the nearest grid center from NLDAS and assessed the results by standard model statistics including root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias estimate (MBE) of the collocated ground station. Observed and modeled data were compared at both hourly and daily mean coordinated universal time steps. In all, ~300 stations were used for 2012. SCAN sites were found to be particularly troublesome at 5- and 10-cm depths. SWS at 163 SCAN sites departed significantly from Noah with a mean R2 of 0.38 × 0.0.23, a mean RMSE of 14.9 mm with a MBE of -13.5 mm. SWS at 111 USCRN sites has a mean R2 of 0.53 × 0.20, a mean RMSE of 8.2 mm with a MBE of -3.7 mm relative to Noah. Finally, 62 COSMOS sites, the instrument with the largest measurement footprint (0.03 km2), we calculated a mean R2 of 0.53 × 0.21, a mean RMSE of 9.7 mm with a MBE of -0.3 mm. Forcing errors and textural misclassifications correlate well with model biases, indicating that scale and structural errors are equally present in NLDAS. Scaling issues aside, these confounding errors make cal/val missions, such as NASA's upcoming Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, problematic without significant quality control and maintenance of for our monitoring networks. Land surface models, such as NLDAS-2, may provide valuable insight into our soil moisture data and somewhere in between the real values likely exist.

Changing Permafrost in the Arctic and its Global Effects in the 21st Century (PAGE21): A very large international and integrated project to measure the impact of permafrost degradation on the climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lantuit, Hugues; Boike, Julia; Dahms, Melanie; Hubberten, Hans-Wolfgang

2013-04-01

The northern permafrost region contains approximately 50% of the estimated global below-ground organic carbon pool and more than twice as much as is contained in the current atmos-pheric carbon pool. The sheer size of this carbon pool, together with the large amplitude of predicted arctic climate change im-plies that there is a high potential for global-scale feedbacks from arctic climate change if these carbon reservoirs are desta-bilized. Nonetheless, significant gaps exist in our current state of knowledge that prevent us from producing accurate assess-ments of the vulnerability of the arctic permafrost to climate change, or of the implications of future climate change for global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Specifically: • Our understanding of the physical and biogeochemical processes at play in permafrost areas is still insuffi-cient in some key aspects • Size estimates for the high latitude continental carbon and nitrogen stocks vary widely between regions and research groups. • The representation of permafrost-related processes in global climate models still tends to be rudimentary, and is one reason for the frequently poor perform-ances of climate models at high latitudes. The key objectives of PAGE21 are: • to improve our understanding of the processes affect-ing the size of the arctic permafrost carbon and nitro-gen pools through detailed field studies and monitor-ing, in order to quantify their size and their vulnerability to climate change, • to produce, assemble and assess high-quality datasets in order to develop and evaluate representations of permafrost and related processes in global models, • to improve these models accordingly, • to use these models to reduce the uncertainties in feed-backs from arctic permafrost to global change, thereby providing the means to assess the feasibility of stabili-zation scenarios, and • to ensure widespread dissemination of our results in order to provide direct input into the ongoing debate on climate-change mitigation. The concept of PAGE21 is to directly address these questions through a close interaction between monitoring activities, proc-ess studies and modeling on the pertinent temporal and spatial scales. Field sites have been selected to cover a wide range of environmental conditions for the validation of large scale mod-els, the development of permafrost monitoring capabilities, the study of permafrost processes, and for overlap with existing monitoring programs. PAGE21 will contribute to upgrading the project sites with the objective of providing a measurement baseline, both for process studies and for modeling programs. PAGE21 is determined to break down the traditional barriers in permafrost sciences between observational and model-supported site studies and large-scale climate modeling. Our concept for the interaction between site-scale studies and large-scale modeling is to establish and maintain a direct link be-tween these two areas for developing and evaluating, on all spatial scales, the land-surface modules of leading European global climate models taking part in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), designed to inform the IPCC process. The timing of this project is such that the main scientific results from PAGE21, and in particular the model-based assessments will build entirely on new outputs and results from the CMIP5 Climate Model Intercomparison Project designed to inform the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. However, PAGE21 is designed to leave a legacy that will en-dure beyond the lifetime of the projections that it produces. This legacy will comprise • an improved understanding of the key processes and parameters that determine the vulnerability of arctic permafrost to climate change, • the production of a suite of major European coupled climate models including detailed and validated repre-sentations of permafrost-related processes, that will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections pro-duced well beyond the lifetime of PAGE21, and • the training of a new generation of permafrost scien-tists who will bridge the long-standing gap between permafrost field science and global climate modeling, for the long-term benefit of science and society.

Viking High-Resolution Topography and Mars '01 Site Selection: Application to the White Rock Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, K. L.; Kirk, Randolph L.; Mackinnon, D. J.; Howington-Kraus, E.

1999-06-01

Definition of the local topography of the Mars '01 Lander site is crucial for assessment of lander safety and rover trafficability. According to Golombek et al., steep surface slopes may (1) cause retro-rockets to be fired too early or late for a safe landing, (2) the landing site slope needs to be < 1deg to ensure lander stability, and (3) a nearly level site is better for power generation of both the lander and the rover and for rover trafficability. Presently available datasets are largely inadequate to determine surface slope at scales pertinent to landing-site issues. Ideally, a topographic model of the entire landing site at meter-scale resolution would permit the best assessment of the pertinent topographic issues. MOLA data, while providing highly accurate vertical measurements, are inadequate to address slopes along paths of less than several hundred meters, because of along-track data spacings of hundreds of meters and horizontal errors in positioning of 500 to 2000 m. The capability to produce stereotopography from MOC image pairs is not yet in hand, nor can we necessarily expect a suitable number of stereo image pairs to be acquired. However, for a limited number of sites, high-resolution Viking stereo imaging is available at tens of meters horizontal resolution, capable of covering landing-ellipse sized areas. Although we would not necessarily suggest that the chosen Mars '01 Lander site should be located where good Viking stereotopography is available, an assessment of typical surface slopes at these scales for a range of surface types may be quite valuable in landing-site selection. Thus this study has a two-fold application: (1) to support the proposal of White Rock as a candidate Mars '01 Lander site, and (2) to evaluate how Viking high resolution stereotopography may be of value in the overall Mars '01 Lander site selection process.

Meso- to micro-scale coupled simulations of flow over complex terrain at the Perdigao site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neher, J.; van Veen, L.; Chow, F. K.; Mirocha, J. D.; Lundquist, J. K.

2017-12-01

In this work, the site of the 2017 Perdigao field campaign is analyzed with high resolution large-eddy simulations generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a coupled mesoscale to microscale model. The fine topographic features of the site, with its ridgelines a mere 1.2 km apart, the occurrence of intermittent turbulence at night, and the presence of a wind turbine on one of the ridgelines pose a challenge for many current numerical models. Key test cases in the observational data that demonstrate these modelling difficulties are identified, and advanced modeling techniques for overcoming these issues in the WRF model are presented. These techniques include vertical grid nesting for control of the grid aspect ratio, the cell perturbation method for accelerating the generation of turbulence at the boundary, the dynamic reconstruction model as a closure model that allows for backscatter of turbulence, and the actuator disk model for representing the turbine wake. Multiple nesting configurations are considered, with special consideration given to spanning the `grey zone' where neither PBL nor LES closures are effective. Comparisons between model results and measured sounding, meteorological tower, and Lidar data are used to evaluate the effectiveness of these techniques, and the model results are evaluated to provide a broader view of the flow field and the turbine wake interactions at the site.

Memory matters: influence from a cognitive map on animal space use.

PubMed

Gautestad, Arild O

2011-10-21

A vertebrate individual's cognitive map provides a capacity for site fidelity and long-distance returns to favorable patches. Fractal-geometrical analysis of individual space use based on collection of telemetry fixes makes it possible to verify the influence of a cognitive map on the spatial scatter of habitat use and also to what extent space use has been of a scale-specific versus a scale-free kind. This approach rests on a statistical mechanical level of system abstraction, where micro-scale details of behavioral interactions are coarse-grained to macro-scale observables like the fractal dimension of space use. In this manner, the magnitude of the fractal dimension becomes a proxy variable for distinguishing between main classes of habitat exploration and site fidelity, like memory-less (Markovian) Brownian motion and Levy walk and memory-enhanced space use like Multi-scaled Random Walk (MRW). In this paper previous analyses are extended by exploring MRW simulations under three scenarios: (1) central place foraging, (2) behavioral adaptation to resource depletion (avoidance of latest visited locations) and (3) transition from MRW towards Levy walk by narrowing memory capacity to a trailing time window. A generalized statistical-mechanical theory with the power to model cognitive map influence on individual space use will be important for statistical analyses of animal habitat preferences and the mechanics behind site fidelity and home ranges. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nutrient pollution mitigation measures across Europe are resilient under future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wade, Andrew; Skeffington, Richard; Couture, Raoul; Erlandsson, Martin; Groot, Simon; Halliday, Sarah; Harezlak, Valesca; Hejzlar, Joseph; Jackson-Blake, Leah; Lepistö, Ahti; Papastergiadou, Eva; Psaltopoulos, Demetrios; Riera, Joan; Rankinen, Katri; Skuras, Dimitris; Trolle, Dennis; Whitehead, Paul; Dunn, Sarah; Bucak, Tuba

2016-04-01

The key results from the application of catchment-scale biophysical models to assess the likely effectiveness of nutrient pollution mitigation measures set in the context of projected land management and climate change are presented. The assessment is based on the synthesis of modelled outputs of daily river flow, river and lake nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, and lake chlorophyll-a, for baseline (1981-2010) and scenario (2031-2060) periods for nine study sites across Europe. Together the nine sites represent a sample of key climate and land management types. The robustness and uncertainty in the daily, seasonal and long-term modelled outputs was assessed prior to the scenario runs. Credible scenarios of land-management changes were provided by social scientists and economists familiar with each study site, whilst likely mitigation measures were derived from local stakeholder consultations and cost-effectiveness assessments. Modelled mitigation options were able to reduce nutrient concentrations, and there was no evidence here that they were less effective under future climate. With less certainty, mitigation options could affect the ecological status of waters at these sites in a positive manner, leading to improvement in Water Framework Directive status at some sites. However, modelled outcomes for sites in southern Europe highlighted that increased evaporation and decreased precipitation will cause much lower flows leading to adverse impacts of river and lake ecology. Uncertainties in the climate models, as represented by three GCM-RCM combinations, did not affect this overall picture much.

Multi-scale Modeling of Energy Balance Fluxes in a Dense Tamarisk Riparian Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neale, C. M.; Santos, C. A.; Watts, D.; Osterberg, J.; Hipps, L. E.; Sritharan, S. I.

2008-12-01

Remote sensing of energy balance fluxes has become operationally more viable over the last 10 years with the development of more robust multi-layer models and the availability of quasi-real time satellite imagery from most sensors. Riparian corridors in semi-arid and arid areas present a challenge to satellite based techniques for estimating evapotranspiration due to issues of scale and pixel resolution, especially when using the thermal infrared bands. This paper will present energy balance measurement and modeling results over a Salt Cedar (Tamarix Ramosissima) forest in the Cibola National Wildlife Refuge along the Colorado River south of Blythe, CA. The research site encompasses a 600 hectare area populated by mostly Tamarisk stands of varying density. Three Bowen ratio systems are installed on tall towers within varying densities of forest cover in the upwind footprint and growing under varying depths to the water table. An additional eddy covariance tower is installed alongside a Bowen ratio system on one of the towers. Flux data has been gathered continuously since early 2007. In the summer of 2007, a Scintec large aperture scintillometer was installed between two of the towers over 1 km apart and has been working continuously along with the flux towers. Two intensive field campaigns were organized in June 2007 and May 2008 to coincide with LANDSAT TM5, MODIS and ASTER overpasses. High resolution multispectral and thermal imagery was acquired at the same time with the USU airborne system to provide information for the up- scaling of the energy balance fluxes from tower to satellite scales. The paper will present comparisons between the different energy balance measuring techniques under the highly advective conditions of the experimental site, concentrating on the scintillometer data. Preliminary results of remotely sensed modeling of the fluxes at different scales and model complexity will also be presented.

Combined chamber-tower approach: Using eddy covariance measurements to cross-validate carbon fluxes modeled from manual chamber campaigns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brümmer, C.; Moffat, A. M.; Huth, V.; Augustin, J.; Herbst, M.; Kutsch, W. L.

2016-12-01

Manual carbon dioxide flux measurements with closed chambers at scheduled campaigns are a versatile method to study management effects at small scales in multiple-plot experiments. The eddy covariance technique has the advantage of quasi-continuous measurements but requires large homogeneous areas of a few hectares. To evaluate the uncertainties associated with interpolating from individual campaigns to the whole vegetation period, we installed both techniques at an agricultural site in Northern Germany. The presented comparison covers two cropping seasons, winter oilseed rape in 2012/13 and winter wheat in 2013/14. Modeling half-hourly carbon fluxes from campaigns is commonly performed based on non-linear regressions for the light response and respiration. The daily averages of net CO2 modeled from chamber data deviated from eddy covariance measurements in the range of ± 5 g C m-2 day-1. To understand the observed differences and to disentangle the effects, we performed four additional setups (expert versus default settings of the non-linear regressions based algorithm, purely empirical modeling with artificial neural networks versus non-linear regressions, cross-validating using eddy covariance measurements as campaign fluxes, weekly versus monthly scheduling of campaigns) to model the half-hourly carbon fluxes for the whole vegetation period. The good agreement of the seasonal course of net CO2 at plot and field scale for our agricultural site demonstrates that both techniques are robust and yield consistent results at seasonal time scale even for a managed ecosystem with high temporal dynamics in the fluxes. This allows combining the respective advantages of factorial experiments at plot scale with dense time series data at field scale. Furthermore, the information from the quasi-continuous eddy covariance measurements can be used to derive vegetation proxies to support the interpolation of carbon fluxes in-between the manual chamber campaigns.

Physicochemical heterogeneity controls on uranium bioreduction rates at the field scale.

PubMed

Li, Li; Gawande, Nitin; Kowalsky, Michael B; Steefel, Carl I; Hubbard, Susan S

2011-12-01

It has been demonstrated in laboratory systems that U(VI) can be reduced to immobile U(IV) by bacteria in natural environments. The ultimate efficacy of bioreduction at the field scale, however, is often challenging to quantify and depends on site characteristics. In this work, uranium bioreduction rates at the field scale are quantified, for the first time, using an integrated approach. The approach combines field data, inverse and forward hydrological and reactive transport modeling, and quantification of reduction rates at different spatial scales. The approach is used to explore the impact of local scale (tens of centimeters) parameters and processes on field scale (tens of meters) system responses to biostimulation treatments and the controls of physicochemical heterogeneity on bioreduction rates. Using the biostimulation experiments at the Department of Energy Old Rifle site, our results show that the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity and solid phase mineral (Fe(III)) play a critical role in determining the field-scale bioreduction rates. Due to the dependence on Fe-reducing bacteria, field-scale U(VI) bioreduction rates were found to be largely controlled by the abundance of Fe(III) minerals at the vicinity of the injection wells and by the presence of preferential flow paths connecting injection wells to down gradient Fe(III) abundant areas.

Modeling Above-Ground Biomass Across Multiple Circum-Arctic Tundra Sites Using High Spatial Resolution Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Räsänen, Aleksi; Juutinen, Sari; Aurela, Mika; Virtanen, Tarmo

2017-04-01

Biomass is one of the central bio-geophysical variables in Earth observation for tracking plant productivity, and flow of carbon, nutrients, and water. Most of the satellite based biomass mapping exercises in Arctic environments have been performed by using rather coarse spatial resolution data, e.g. Landsat and AVHRR which have spatial resolutions of 30 m and >1 km, respectively. While the coarse resolution images have high temporal resolution, they are incapable of capturing the fragmented nature of tundra environment and fine-scale changes in vegetation and carbon exchange patterns. Very high spatial resolution (VHSR, spatial resolution 0.5-2 m) satellite images have the potential to detect environmental variables with an ecologically sound spatial resolution. The usage of VHSR images has, nevertheless, been modest so far in biomass modeling in the Arctic. Our objectives were to use VHSR for predicting above ground biomass in tundra landscapes, evaluate whether a common predictive model can be applied across circum-Arctic tundra and peatland sites having different types of vegetation, and produce knowledge on distribution of plant functional types (PFT) in these sites. Such model development is dependent on ground-based surveys of vegetation with the same spatial resolution and extent with the VHSR images. In this study, we conducted ground-based surveys of vegetation composition and biomass in four different arctic tundra or peatland areas located in Russia, Canada, and Finland. First, we sorted species into PFTs and developed PFT-specific models to predict biomass on the basis of non-destructive measurements (cover, height). Second, we predicted overall biomass on landscape scale by combinations of single bands and vegetation indices of very high resolution satellite images (QuickBird or WorldView-2 images of the eight sites). We compared area-specific empirical regression models and common models that were applied across all sites. We found that NDVI was usually the highest scoring spectral indices in explaining biomass distribution with good explanatory power. Furthermore, models which had more than one explanatory variable had higher explanatory power than models with a single index. The dissimilarity between common and site-specific model estimates was, however, high and data indicates that variation in vegetation properties and its impact on spectral reflectance needs to be acknowledged. Our work produced knowledge on above-ground biomass distribution and contribution of PFTs across circum-Arctic low-growth landscapes and will contribute to developing space-borne vegetation monitoring schemes utilizing VHSR satellite images.

A compartmentalized solute transport model for redox zones in contaminated aquifers: 2. Field‐scale simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Abrams , Robert H.; Loague, Keith

2000-01-01

This paper, the second of two parts [see Abrams and Loague, this issue], reports the field‐scale application of COMPTRAN (compartmentalized solute transport model) for simulating the development of redox zones. COMPTRAN is fully developed and described in the companion paper. Redox zones, which are often delineated by the relative concentrations of dissolved oxygen, have been observed around the globe. The distribution of other redox‐sensitive species is affected by redox zonation. At the U.S. Geological Survey's Cape Cod research site, an anoxic zone containing high concentrations of dissolved iron has been observed. Field data were abstracted from the Cape Cod site for the one‐dimensional and two‐dimensional COMPTRAN simulations reported in this paper. The purpose of the concept‐development simulations was to demonstrate that the compartmentalized approach reported by Abrams et al. [1998] can be linked with a solute transport model to simulate field‐scale phenomena. The results presented in this paper show that COMPTRAN successfully simulated the development of redox zones at the field scale, including trends in pH and alkalinity. Thermodynamic constraints were used to prevent lower‐energy redox reactions from occurring under infeasible geochemical conditions without imposing equilibrium among all redox species. Empirical methods of reaction inhibition were not needed for the simulations conducted for this study. COMPTRAN can be extended easily to include additional compartments and reactions and is capable of handling complex velocity fields in more than one dimension.

Preferential transport of isoproturon at a plot scale and a field scale tile-drained site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zehe, Erwin; Flühler, Hannes

2001-06-01

Irrigation experiments using the tracers Brilliant Blue (BB) and Bromide (Br) were conducted on three plots of 1.4×1.4 m 2 (plot scale) and a field scale subsurface drained test site (900 m 2) to clarify mechanisms causing rapid transport of surface applied Isoproturon (IPU) during preferential flow events. One of the small plots (site 10) and the field scale test site are located on the same field. One day after irrigation of the plot scale sites the Br and IPU concentration in two vertical soil profiles as well as the macroporousity on separate profiles and hydraulic properties of single macropores were determined. During irrigation of the field scale test site discharge, soil moisture as well as the concentration of IPU and Br in the drainage outlet were measured. Preferential flow in deep penetrating earthworm burrows caused a fast breakthrough of IPU and Br into the tile drain (1.2 m depth) at the field scale site as well as leaching of IPU into the subsoil (>0.8 m) at site 10. The results suggest a hierarchy of preconditions for the occurrence of preferential flow events of which a sufficient number of deep penetrating macropores interconnected to the soil surface seems to be the most important one. Moreover there is evidence that facilitated transport of IPU attached to mobile soil particles occurred during the preferential flow events at the field scale site and site 10. The susceptibility for preferential flow as well as the susceptibility for facilitated transport appear to be intrinsic properties of the investigated soil.

Large- and small-scale environmental factors drive distributions of cool-adapted plants in karstic microrefugia

PubMed Central

Vojtkó, András; Farkas, Tünde; Szabó, Anna; Havadtői, Krisztina; Vojtkó, Anna E.; Tölgyesi, Csaba; Cseh, Viktória; Erdős, László; Maák, István Elek; Keppel, Gunnar

2017-01-01

Background and aims Dolines are small- to large-sized bowl-shaped depressions of karst surfaces. They may constitute important microrefugia, as thermal inversion often maintains cooler conditions within them. This study aimed to identify the effects of large- (macroclimate) and small-scale (slope aspect and vegetation type) environmental factors on cool-adapted plants in karst dolines of East-Central Europe. We also evaluated the potential of these dolines to be microrefugia that mitigate the effects of climate change on cool-adapted plants in both forest and grassland ecosystems. Methods We compared surveys of plant species composition that were made between 2007 and 2015 in 21 dolines distributed across four mountain ranges (sites) in Hungary and Romania. We examined the effects of environmental factors on the distribution and number of cool-adapted plants on three scales: (1) regional (all sites); (2) within sites and; (3) within dolines. Generalized linear models and non-parametric tests were used for the analyses. Key Results Macroclimate, vegetation type and aspect were all significant predictors of the diversity of cool-adapted plants. More cool-adapted plants were recorded in the coolest site, with only few found in the warmest site. At the warmest site, the distribution of cool-adapted plants was restricted to the deepest parts of dolines. Within sites of intermediate temperature and humidity, the effect of vegetation type and aspect on the diversity of cool-adapted plants was often significant, with more taxa being found in grasslands (versus forests) and on north-facing slopes (versus south-facing slopes). Conclusions There is large variation in the number and spatial distribution of cool-adapted plants in karst dolines, which is related to large- and small-scale environmental factors. Both macro- and microrefugia are therefore likely to play important roles in facilitating the persistence of cool-adapted plants under global warming. PMID:28025290

Net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange in tropical rainforests - sensitivity to environmental drivers and flux measurement methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Z.; Stoy, P. C.

2017-12-01

Tropical rainforests play a central role in the Earth system services of carbon metabolism, climate regulation, biodiversity maintenance, and more. They are under threat by direct anthropogenic effects including deforestation and indirect anthropogenic effects including climate change. A synthesis of the factors that determine the net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE) across multiple time scales in different tropical rainforests has not been undertaken to date. Here, we study NEE and its components, gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE), across thirteen tropical rainforest research sites with 63 total site-years of eddy covariance data. Results reveal that the five ecosystems that have greater carbon uptakes (with the magnitude of GPP greater than 3000 g C m-2 y-1) sequester less carbon - or even lose it - on an annual basis at the ecosystem scale. This counterintuitive result is because high GPP is compensated by similar magnitudes of RE. Sites that provided subcanopy CO2 storage observations had higher average magnitudes of GPP and RE and consequently lower NEE, highlighting the importance of measurement methodology for understanding carbon dynamics in tropical rainforests. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) constrained GPP at all sites, but to differing degrees. Many environmental variables are significantly related to NEE at time scales greater than one year, and NEE at a rainforest in Malaysia is significantly related to soil moisture variability at seasonal time scales. Climate projections from 13 general circulation models (CMIP5) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 suggest that many current tropical rainforest sites on the cooler end of the current temperature range are likely to reach a climate space similar to present-day warmer sites by the year 2050, and warmer sites will reach a climate space not currently experienced. Results demonstrate the need to quantify if mature tropical trees acclimate to heat and VPD, and to further develop flux-partitioning and gap-filling algorithms for defensible estimates of carbon exchange in tropical rainforests.

Large- and small-scale environmental factors drive distributions of cool-adapted plants in karstic microrefugia.

PubMed

Bátori, Zoltán; Vojtkó, András; Farkas, Tünde; Szabó, Anna; Havadtői, Krisztina; Vojtkó, Anna E; Tölgyesi, Csaba; Cseh, Viktória; Erdős, László; Maák, István Elek; Keppel, Gunnar

2017-01-01

Dolines are small- to large-sized bowl-shaped depressions of karst surfaces. They may constitute important microrefugia, as thermal inversion often maintains cooler conditions within them. This study aimed to identify the effects of large- (macroclimate) and small-scale (slope aspect and vegetation type) environmental factors on cool-adapted plants in karst dolines of East-Central Europe. We also evaluated the potential of these dolines to be microrefugia that mitigate the effects of climate change on cool-adapted plants in both forest and grassland ecosystems. We compared surveys of plant species composition that were made between 2007 and 2015 in 21 dolines distributed across four mountain ranges (sites) in Hungary and Romania. We examined the effects of environmental factors on the distribution and number of cool-adapted plants on three scales: (1) regional (all sites); (2) within sites and; (3) within dolines. Generalized linear models and non-parametric tests were used for the analyses. Macroclimate, vegetation type and aspect were all significant predictors of the diversity of cool-adapted plants. More cool-adapted plants were recorded in the coolest site, with only few found in the warmest site. At the warmest site, the distribution of cool-adapted plants was restricted to the deepest parts of dolines. Within sites of intermediate temperature and humidity, the effect of vegetation type and aspect on the diversity of cool-adapted plants was often significant, with more taxa being found in grasslands (versus forests) and on north-facing slopes (versus south-facing slopes). There is large variation in the number and spatial distribution of cool-adapted plants in karst dolines, which is related to large- and small-scale environmental factors. Both macro- and microrefugia are therefore likely to play important roles in facilitating the persistence of cool-adapted plants under global warming. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Musite, a tool for global prediction of general and kinase-specific phosphorylation sites.

PubMed

Gao, Jianjiong; Thelen, Jay J; Dunker, A Keith; Xu, Dong

2010-12-01

Reversible protein phosphorylation is one of the most pervasive post-translational modifications, regulating diverse cellular processes in various organisms. High throughput experimental studies using mass spectrometry have identified many phosphorylation sites, primarily from eukaryotes. However, the vast majority of phosphorylation sites remain undiscovered, even in well studied systems. Because mass spectrometry-based experimental approaches for identifying phosphorylation events are costly, time-consuming, and biased toward abundant proteins and proteotypic peptides, in silico prediction of phosphorylation sites is potentially a useful alternative strategy for whole proteome annotation. Because of various limitations, current phosphorylation site prediction tools were not well designed for comprehensive assessment of proteomes. Here, we present a novel software tool, Musite, specifically designed for large scale predictions of both general and kinase-specific phosphorylation sites. We collected phosphoproteomics data in multiple organisms from several reliable sources and used them to train prediction models by a comprehensive machine-learning approach that integrates local sequence similarities to known phosphorylation sites, protein disorder scores, and amino acid frequencies. Application of Musite on several proteomes yielded tens of thousands of phosphorylation site predictions at a high stringency level. Cross-validation tests show that Musite achieves some improvement over existing tools in predicting general phosphorylation sites, and it is at least comparable with those for predicting kinase-specific phosphorylation sites. In Musite V1.0, we have trained general prediction models for six organisms and kinase-specific prediction models for 13 kinases or kinase families. Although the current pretrained models were not correlated with any particular cellular conditions, Musite provides a unique functionality for training customized prediction models (including condition-specific models) from users' own data. In addition, with its easily extensible open source application programming interface, Musite is aimed at being an open platform for community-based development of machine learning-based phosphorylation site prediction applications. Musite is available at http://musite.sourceforge.net/.

Photoperiodic controls on ecosystem-level photosynthetic capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoy, P. C.; Trowbridge, A. M.; Bauerle, W.

2012-12-01

Most models of photosynthesis at the leaf or canopy level assume that temperature is the dominant control on the variability of photosynthetic parameters. Recent studies, however, have found that photoperiod is a better descriptor of the seasonal variability of photosynthetic function at the leaf and plant scale, and that spectral indices of leaf functionality are poor descriptors of this seasonality. We explored the variability of photosynthesic parameters at the ecosystem scale using over 100 site-years of air temperature and gross primary productivity (GPP) data from non-tropical forested sites in the Free/Fair Use LaThuille FLUXNET database (www.fluxdata.org), excluding sites that were classified as dry and/or with savanna vegetation, where we expected GPP to be driven by moisture availability. Both GPP and GPP normalized by daily photosynthetic photon flux density (GPPn) were considered, and photoperiod was calculated from eddy covariance tower coordinates. We performed a Granger causality analysis, a method based on the understanding that causes precede effects, on both the GPP and GPPn. Photoperiod Granger-caused GPP (GPPn) in 95% (87%) of all site-years. While temperature Granger-caused GPP in a mere 23% of site years, it Granger-caused GPPn 73% of the time. Both temperature values are significantly less than the percent of cases in which day length Granger-caused GPP (p<0.05, Student's t-test). An inverse analysis was performed for completeness, and it was found that GPP Granger-caused photoperiod (temperature) in 39% (78%) of all site years. Results demonstrate that incorporating simple photoperiod controls may be a logical step in improving ecosystem and global model output.

Modeling Land Application of Food-Processing Wastewater in the Central Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, Y.; Benito, P.; Miller, G.; McLaughlin, J.; Hou, Z.; Hermanowicz, S.; Mayer, U.

2007-12-01

California's Central Valley contains over 640 food-processing plants, serving a multi-billion dollar agricultural industry. These processors consume approximately 7.9 x 107 m3 of water per year. Approximately 80% of these processors discharge the resulting wastewater, which is typically high in organic matter, nitrogen, and salts, to land, and many of these use land application as a treatment method. Initial investigations revealed elevated salinity levels to be the most common form of groundwater degradation near land application sites, followed by concentrations of nitrogen compounds, namely ammonia and nitrate. Enforcement actions have been taken against multiple food processors, and the regulatory boards have begun to re-examine the land disposal permitting process. This paper summarizes a study that was commissioned in support of these actions. The study has multiple components which will be reviewed briefly, including: (1) characterization of the food-processing related waste stream; (2) fate and transport of the effluent waste stream in the unsaturated zone at the land application sites; (3) fate and transport of the effluent waste stream at the regional scale; (4) predictive uncertainty due to spatial variability and data scarcity at the land application sites and at the regional scale; (5) problem mitigation through off-site and in-situ actions; (6) long-term solutions. The emphasis of the talk will be placed on presenting and demonstrating a stochastic framework for modeling the transport and attenuation of these wastes in the vadose zone and in the saturated zone, and the related site characterization needs, as affected by site conditions, water table depth, waste water application rate, and waste constituent concentrations.

Hydrological response of karst systems to large-scale climate variability for different catchments of the French karst observatory network INSU/CNRS SNO KARST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, Nicolas; Labat, David; Jourde, Hervé; Lecoq, Nicolas; Mazzilli, Naomi

2017-04-01

The french karst observatory network SNO KARST is a national initiative from the National Institute for Earth Sciences and Astronomy (INSU) of the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS). It is also part of the new french research infrastructure for the observation of the critical zone OZCAR. SNO KARST is composed by several karst sites distributed over conterminous France which are located in different physiographic and climatic contexts (Mediterranean, Pyrenean, Jura mountain, western and northwestern shore near the Atlantic or the English Channel). This allows the scientific community to develop advanced research and experiments dedicated to improve understanding of the hydrological functioning of karst catchments. Here we used several sites of SNO KARST in order to assess the hydrological response of karst catchments to long-term variation of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Using NCEP reanalysis products and karst discharge, we analyzed the links between large-scale circulation and karst water resources variability. As karst hydrosystems are highly heterogeneous media, they behave differently across different time-scales : we explore the large-scale/local-scale relationships according to time-scales using a wavelet multiresolution approach of both karst hydrological variables and large-scale climate fields such as sea level pressure (SLP). The different wavelet components of karst discharge in response to the corresponding wavelet component of climate fields are either 1) compared to physico-chemical/geochemical responses at karst springs, or 2) interpreted in terms of hydrological functioning by comparing discharge wavelet components to internal components obtained from precipitation/discharge models using the KARSTMOD conceptual modeling platform of SNO KARST.

Flood frequency estimation by national-scale continuous hydrological simulations: an application in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Stewart, Elizabeth; Bell, Victoria; Reynard, Nick

2017-04-01

Estimation of peak discharge for an assigned return period is a crucial issue in engineering hydrology. It is required for designing and managing hydraulic infrastructure such as dams, reservoirs and bridges. In the UK, the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) recommends the use of the index flood method to estimate the design flood as the product of a local scale factor (the index flood, IF) and a dimensionless regional growth factor (GF). For gauged catchments the IF is usually estimated as the median annual maximum flood (QMED), while for ungauged catchments it is computed through multiple linear regression models based on a set of morpho-climatic indices of the basin. The GF is estimated by fitting the annual maxima with the generalised logistic distribution (GL) using two methods depending on the record length and the target return period: single-site or pooled analysis. The single site-analysis estimates the GF from the annual maxima of the subject site alone; the pooled analysis uses data from a set of catchments hydrologically similar to the subject site. In this work estimates of floods up to 100-year return period obtained from the FEH approach are compared to those obtained using Grid-to-Grid, a continuous physically-based hydrological model. The model converts rainfall and potential evapotranspiration into river flows by modelling surface/sub-surface runoff, lateral water movements, and snow-pack. It is configured on a 1km2 grid resolution and it uses spatial datasets of topography, soil, and land cover. It was set up in Great Britain and has been evaluated for the period 1960-2014 in forward-mode (i.e. without parameter calibration) using daily meteorological forcing data. The modelled floods with a given return period (5,10, 30, 50, and 100 years) were computed from the modelled discharge annual maxima and compared to the FEH estimates for 100 catchments in Great Britain. Preliminary results suggest that there is a good agreement between modelled and measured floods with a correlation coefficient that ranges from 0.8 for low return periods to 0.65 for the highest. It is shown that model performance is robust and independent of catchment features such as area and mean annual rainfall. The promising results for Great Britain support the aspiration that continuous simulation from large-scale hydrological models, supported by the increasing availability of global weather, climate and hydrological products, could be used to develop robust methods to help engineers estimate design floods in regions with limited gauge data or affected by environmental change.

An experimental and modeling study of grain-scale uranium desorption from field-contaminated sediments and the potential influence of microporosity on mass-transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoliker, D.; Liu, C.; Kent, D. B.; Zachara, J. M.

2012-12-01

The aquifer below the 300-Area of the Hanford site (Richland, WA, USA) is plagued by a persistent plume of dissolved uranium (U(VI)) in excess of the Environmental Protection Agency drinking water maximum contamination level even after the removal of highly contaminated sediments. The aquifer sediments in the seasonally saturated lower vadose zone act as both a source and sink for uranium during stage changes in the nearby Columbia River. Diffusion limitation of uranium mass-transfer within these sediments has been cited as a potential cause of the plume's persistence. Equilibrium U(VI) sorption is a strong function of variable chemical conditions, especially carbonate, hydrogen, and uranyl ion activities. Field-contaminated sediments from the site require up to 1,000 hours to reach equilibrium in static batch reactors. Increases in U(VI) concentrations over longer time-scales result from changes in chemical conditions, which drive reactions with sediments that favor U(VI) desorption. Grain-scale U(VI) sorption/desorption rates are slow, likely owing to diffusion of U(VI) and other solutes through intra-granular pore domains. In order to improve understanding of the impact of intra-granular diffusion and chemical reactions controlling grain-scale U(VI) release, experiments were conducted on individual particle size fractions of a <8 mm composite of field-contaminated, lower vadose zone sediments. For each size fraction, equilibrium U(VI) sorption/desorption in static batch reactors was well-described by surface complexation models over a range of chemical conditions applicable to the field site. Desorption rates from individual size fractions in flow-through batch reactors, examined under a single set of constant chemical conditions with multiple stop-flow events, were similar for all size fractions <2 mm. Kinetic U(VI) desorption in flow-through batch reactors was modeled using a multi-rate surface complexation approach, where sorption/desorption rates were assumed to be proportional to the displacement from equilibrium and multiple diffusion domains were described with a two-parameter lognormal distribution of mass-transfer rate coefficients. Parameters describing mass transfer were the same for all size fractions <2 mm but differed for the largest (2-8 mm) size fraction. The evolution of pH, along with dissolved cation and carbonate concentrations, was modeled using equilibrium cation exchange, rate-limited calcite dissolution, aerobic respiration, and silica dissolution. Desorption and chemical reaction models calibrated with individual size fractions predicted U(VI) and chemical composition as a function of time for the bulk sediment sample. Volumes of pores less than 2.4 nm, quantified using nitrogen adsorption-desorption isotherms, were the same for all size fractions < 2 mm, nearly double that of the 2-8 mm size fraction. Similarity in the observed pore volumes and multi-rate mass-transfer parameters across all size fractions <2 mm suggest the importance of pores in this size class in controlling slow grain-scale U(VI) desorption rates. Models like these provide a means for testing the influence of grain-scale mass-transfer on the persistence of U(VI) plume at the site.

Grain-Size Based Additivity Models for Scaling Multi-rate Uranyl Surface Complexation in Subsurface Sediments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xiaoying; Liu, Chongxuan; Hu, Bill X.

The additivity model assumed that field-scale reaction properties in a sediment including surface area, reactive site concentration, and reaction rate can be predicted from field-scale grain-size distribution by linearly adding reaction properties estimated in laboratory for individual grain-size fractions. This study evaluated the additivity model in scaling mass transfer-limited, multi-rate uranyl (U(VI)) surface complexation reactions in a contaminated sediment. Experimental data of rate-limited U(VI) desorption in a stirred flow-cell reactor were used to estimate the statistical properties of the rate constants for individual grain-size fractions, which were then used to predict rate-limited U(VI) desorption in the composite sediment. The resultmore » indicated that the additivity model with respect to the rate of U(VI) desorption provided a good prediction of U(VI) desorption in the composite sediment. However, the rate constants were not directly scalable using the additivity model. An approximate additivity model for directly scaling rate constants was subsequently proposed and evaluated. The result found that the approximate model provided a good prediction of the experimental results within statistical uncertainty. This study also found that a gravel-size fraction (2 to 8 mm), which is often ignored in modeling U(VI) sorption and desorption, is statistically significant to the U(VI) desorption in the sediment.« less

Multi-Scale Particle Size Distributions of Mars, Moon and Itokawa based on a time-maturation dependent fragmentation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charalambous, C. A.; Pike, W. T.

2013-12-01

We present the development of a soil evolution framework and multiscale modelling of the surface of Mars, Moon and Itokawa thus providing an atlas of extra-terrestrial Particle Size Distributions (PSD). These PSDs are profoundly based on a tailoring method which interconnects several datasets from different sites captured by the various missions. The final integrated product is then fully justified through a soil evolution analysis model mathematically constructed via fundamental physical principles (Charalambous, 2013). The construction of the PSD takes into account the macroscale fresh primary impacts and their products, the mesoscale distributions obtained by the in-situ data of surface missions (Golombek et al., 1997, 2012) and finally the microscopic scale distributions provided by Curiosity and Phoenix Lander (Pike, 2011). The distribution naturally extends at the magnitudinal scales at which current data does not exist due to the lack of scientific instruments capturing the populations at these data absent scales. The extension is based on the model distribution (Charalambous, 2013) which takes as parameters known values of material specific probabilities of fragmentation and grinding limits. Additionally, the establishment of a closed-form statistical distribution provides a quantitative description of the soil's structure. Consequently, reverse engineering of the model distribution allows the synthesis of soil that faithfully represents the particle population at the studied sites (Charalambous, 2011). Such representation essentially delivers a virtual soil environment to work with for numerous applications. A specific application demonstrated here will be the information that can directly be extracted for the successful drilling probability as a function of distance in an effort to aid the HP3 instrument of the 2016 Insight Mission to Mars. Pike, W. T., et al. "Quantification of the dry history of the Martian soil inferred from in situ microscopy." Geophysical Research Letters 38.24 (2011). C. A. Charalambous and W. T. Pike (2013). 'Evolution of Particle Size Distributions in Fragmentation Over Time' Abstract Submitted to the AGU 46th Fall Meeting. Charalambous, C., Pike, W. T., Goetz, W., Hecht, M. H., & Staufer, U. (2011, December). 'A Digital Martian Soil based on In-Situ Data.' In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (Vol. 1, p. 1669). Golombek, M., & Rapp, D. (1997). 'Size-frequency distributions of rocks on Mars and Earth analog sites: Implications for future landed missions.' Journal of Geophysical Research, 102(E2), 4117-4129. Golombek, M., Huertas, A., Kipp, D., & Calef, F. (2012). 'Detection and characterization of rocks and rock size-frequency distributions at the final four Mars Science Laboratory landing sites.' Mars, 7, 1-22.

Regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO2 injection - Part 2: A simulated case study in the North German Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kissinger, Alexander; Noack, Vera; Knopf, Stefan; Konrad, Wilfried; Scheer, Dirk; Class, Holger

2017-06-01

Saltwater intrusion into potential drinking water aquifers due to the injection of CO2 into deep saline aquifers is one of the hazards associated with the geological storage of CO2. Thus, in a site-specific risk assessment, models for predicting the fate of the displaced brine are required. Practical simulation of brine displacement involves decisions regarding the complexity of the model. The choice of an appropriate level of model complexity depends on multiple criteria: the target variable of interest, the relevant physical processes, the computational demand, the availability of data, and the data uncertainty. In this study, we set up a regional-scale geological model for a realistic (but not real) onshore site in the North German Basin with characteristic geological features for that region. A major aim of this work is to identify the relevant parameters controlling saltwater intrusion in a complex structural setting and to test the applicability of different model simplifications. The model that is used to identify relevant parameters fully couples flow in shallow freshwater aquifers and deep saline aquifers. This model also includes variable-density transport of salt and realistically incorporates surface boundary conditions with groundwater recharge. The complexity of this model is then reduced in several steps, by neglecting physical processes (two-phase flow near the injection well, variable-density flow) and by simplifying the complex geometry of the geological model. The results indicate that the initial salt distribution prior to the injection of CO2 is one of the key parameters controlling shallow aquifer salinization. However, determining the initial salt distribution involves large uncertainties in the regional-scale hydrogeological parameterization and requires complex and computationally demanding models (regional-scale variable-density salt transport). In order to evaluate strategies for minimizing leakage into shallow aquifers, other target variables can be considered, such as the volumetric leakage rate into shallow aquifers or the pressure buildup in the injection horizon. Our results show that simplified models, which neglect variable-density salt transport, can reach an acceptable agreement with more complex models.

[Collaborative application of BEPS at different time steps.

PubMed

Lu, Wei; Fan, Wen Yi; Tian, Tian

2016-09-01

BEPSHourly is committed to simulate the ecological and physiological process of vegetation at hourly time steps, and is often applied to analyze the diurnal change of gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP) at site scale because of its more complex model structure and time-consuming solving process. However, daily photosynthetic rate calculation in BEPSDaily model is simpler and less time-consuming, not involving many iterative processes. It is suitable for simulating the regional primary productivity and analyzing the spatial distribution of regional carbon sources and sinks. According to the characteristics and applicability of BEPSDaily and BEPSHourly models, this paper proposed a method of collaborative application of BEPS at daily and hourly time steps. Firstly, BEPSHourly was used to optimize the main photosynthetic parameters: the maximum rate of carboxylation (V c max ) and the maximum rate of photosynthetic electron transport (J max ) at site scale, and then the two optimized parameters were introduced into BEPSDaily model to estimate regional NPP at regional scale. The results showed that optimization of the main photosynthesis parameters based on the flux data could improve the simulate ability of the model. The primary productivity of different forest types in descending order was deciduous broad-leaved forest, mixed forest, coniferous forest in 2011. The collaborative application of carbon cycle models at different steps proposed in this study could effectively optimize the main photosynthesis parameters V c max and J max , simulate the monthly averaged diurnal GPP, NPP, calculate the regional NPP, and analyze the spatial distribution of regional carbon sources and sinks.

Scaling for Robust Empirical Modeling and Predictions of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) from Diverse Wetland Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishtiaq, K. S.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2014-12-01

We developed a scaling-based, simple empirical model for spatio-temporally robust prediction of the diurnal cycles of wetland net ecosystem exchange (NEE) by using an extended stochastic harmonic algorithm (ESHA). A reference-time observation from each diurnal cycle was utilized as the scaling parameter to normalize and collapse hourly observed NEE of different days into a single, dimensionless diurnal curve. The modeling concept was tested by parameterizing the unique diurnal curve and predicting hourly NEE of May to October (summer growing and fall seasons) between 2002-12 for diverse wetland ecosystems, as available in the U.S. AmeriFLUX network. As an example, the Taylor Slough short hydroperiod marsh site in the Florida Everglades had data for four consecutive growing seasons from 2009-12; results showed impressive modeling efficiency (coefficient of determination, R2 = 0.66) and accuracy (ratio of root-mean-square-error to the standard deviation of observations, RSR = 0.58). Model validation was performed with an independent year of NEE data, indicating equally impressive performance (R2 = 0.68, RSR = 0.57). The model included a parsimonious set of estimated parameters, which exhibited spatio-temporal robustness by collapsing onto narrow ranges. Model robustness was further investigated by analytically deriving and quantifying parameter sensitivity coefficients and a first-order uncertainty measure. The relatively robust, empirical NEE model can be applied for simulating continuous (e.g., hourly) NEE time-series from a single reference observation (or a set of limited observations) at different wetland sites of comparable hydro-climatology, biogeochemistry, and ecology. The method can also be used for a robust gap-filling of missing data in observed time-series of periodic ecohydrological variables for wetland or other ecosystems.

Simulation of Boreal Ecosystem Carbon and Water Budgets: Scaling from Local to Regional Extents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Eric F.

1997-01-01

A coupled water and energy balance model is developed. This model can predict the partitioning of water and energy between major source, sink and storage elements within the Boreal-Ecosystem-Atmospheric Study (BOREAS) areas. The results of testing the model against data collected at BOREAS tower sites during Intensive Field Campaigns and remotely sensed data collected across the BOREAS region are presented.

Realization of State-Space Models for Wave Propagation Simulations

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

reduction techniques can be applied to reduce the dimension of the model further if warranted. INFRASONIC PROPAGATION MODEL Infrasound is sound below 20...capable of scatter- ing and blocking the propagation. This is because the infrasound wavelengths are near the scales of topographic features. These...and Development Center (ERDC) Big Black Test Site (BBTS) and an infrasound -sensing array at the ERDC Waterways Experiment Station (WES). Both are

Distance, dams and drift: What structures populations of an endangered, benthic stream fish?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James H.; Angermeier, Paul; Hallerman, Eric M.

2013-01-01

Spatial population structure plays an important role in species persistence, evolution and conservation. Benthic stream fishes are diverse and frequently imperilled, yet the determinants and spatial scaling of their population structure are understudied. We investigated the range-wide population genetic structure of Roanoke logperch (Percina rex), an endangered, benthic stream fish of the eastern United States. Fish were sampled from 35 sites and analysed at 11 microsatellite DNA loci. Clustering models were used to sort individuals into genetically cohesive groups and thereby estimate the spatial scaling of population structure. We then used Bayesian generalized linear mixed models (BGLMMs) to test alternative hypotheses about the environmental factors most responsible for generating structure, as measured by the differentiation statistic FST. Clustering models delineated seven discrete populations, whose boundaries coincided with agents of fragmentation, including hydroelectric dams and tailwaters. In the absence of hydrological barriers, gene flow was extensive throughout catchments, whereas there was no evidence for contemporary dispersal between catchments across barriers. In the best-supported BGLMM, FST was positively related to the spatial distance and degree of hydrological alteration between sites and negatively related to genetic diversity within sites. Whereas the effect of tailwaters was equivocal, dams strongly influenced differentiation: the effect of a dam on FST was comparable to that of a between-site distance of over 1200 km of unimpounded river. Overall, the effect of distance-mediated dispersal was negligible compared to the combined effects of fragmentation and genetic drift. The contemporary population structure of P. rex comprises a few geographically extensive ‘islands’ that are fragmented by hydroelectric projects. This information clarifies the importance of a catchment-scale perspective on conserving the species and suggests that its recovery may require genetic and/or demographic reconnection of presently isolated populations.

Efficiency of small scale carbon mitigation by patch iron fertilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarmiento, J. L.; Slater, R. D.; Dunne, J.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Hiscock, M. R.

2010-11-01

While nutrient depletion scenarios have long shown that the high-latitude High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) regions are the most effective for sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide, recent simulations with prognostic biogeochemical models have suggested that only a fraction of the potential drawdown can be realized. We use a global ocean biogeochemical general circulation model developed at GFDL and Princeton to examine this and related issues. We fertilize two patches in the North and Equatorial Pacific, and two additional patches in the Southern Ocean HNLC region north of the biogeochemical divide and in the Ross Sea south of the biogeochemical divide. We evaluate the simulations using observations from both artificial and natural iron fertilization experiments at nearby locations. We obtain by far the greatest response to iron fertilization at the Ross Sea site, where sea ice prevents escape of sequestered CO2 during the wintertime, and the CO2 removed from the surface ocean by the biological pump is carried into the deep ocean by the circulation. As a consequence, CO2 remains sequestered on century time-scales and the efficiency of fertilization remains almost constant no matter how frequently iron is applied as long as it is confined to the growing season. The second most efficient site is in the Southern Ocean. The North Pacific site has lower initial nutrients and thus a lower efficiency. Fertilization of the Equatorial Pacific leads to an expansion of the suboxic zone and a striking increase in denitrification that causes a sharp reduction in overall surface biological export production and CO2 uptake. The impacts on the oxygen distribution and surface biological export are less prominent at other sites, but nevertheless still a source of concern. The century time scale retention of iron in this model greatly increases the long-term biological response to iron addition as compared with simulations in which the added iron is rapidly scavenged from the ocean.

Comparing SMAP to Macro-scale and Hyper-resolution Land Surface Models over Continental U. S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Ming; Cai, Xitian; Chaney, Nathaniel; Wood, Eric

2016-04-01

SMAP sensors collect moisture information in top soil at the spatial resolution of ~40 km (radiometer) and ~1 to 3 km (radar, before its failure in July 2015). Such information is extremely valuable for understanding various terrestrial hydrologic processes and their implications on human life. At the same time, soil moisture is a joint consequence of numerous physical processes (precipitation, temperature, radiation, topography, crop/vegetation dynamics, soil properties, etc.) that happen at a wide range of scales from tens of kilometers down to tens of meters. Therefore, a full and thorough analysis/exploration of SMAP data products calls for investigations at multiple spatial scales - from regional, to catchment, and to field scales. Here we first compare the SMAP retrievals to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface model simulations over the continental U. S. region at 3 km resolution. The forcing inputs to the model are merged/downscaled from a suite of best available data products including the NLDAS-2 forcing, Stage IV and Stage II precipitation, GOES Surface and Insolation Products, and fine elevation data. The near real time VIC simulation is intended to provide a source of large scale comparisons at the active sensor resolution. Beyond the VIC model scale, we perform comparisons at 30 m resolution against the recently developed HydroBloks hyper-resolution land surface model over several densely gauged USDA experimental watersheds. Comparisons are also made against in-situ point-scale observations from various SMAP Cal/Val and field campaign sites.

EPIC-Simulated and MODIS-Derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is an important parameter in assessing vegetation structure for characterizing forest canopies over large areas at broad spatial scales using satellite remote sensing data. However, satellite-derived LAI products can be limited by obstructed atmospheric conditions yielding sub-optimal values, or complete non-returns. The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Methods and Measurements and Computational Exposure Divisions are investigating the viability of supplemental modelled LAI inputs into satellite-derived data streams to support various regional and local scale air quality models for retrospective and future climate assessments. In this present study, one-year (2002) of plot level stand characteristics at four study sites located in Virginia and North Carolina are used to calibrate species-specific plant parameters in a semi-empirical biogeochemical model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was designed primarily for managed agricultural field crop ecosystems, but also includes managed woody species that span both xeric and mesic sites (e.g., mesquite, pine, oak, etc.). LAI was simulated using EPIC at a 4 km2 and 12 km2 grid coincident with the regional Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) grid. LAI comparisons were made between model-simulated and MODIS-derived LAI. Field/satellite-upscaled LAI was also compared to the corresponding MODIS LAI value. Preliminary results show field/satel

FIFE data analysis: Testing BIOME-BGC predictions for grasslands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunt, E. Raymond, Jr.

1994-01-01

The First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE) was conducted in a 15 km by 15 km research area located 8 km south of Manhattan, Kansas. The site consists primarily of native tallgrass prairie mixed with gallery oak forests and croplands. The objectives of FIFE are to better understand the role of biology in controlling the interactions between the land and the atmosphere, and to determine the value of remotely sensed data for estimating climatological parameters. The goals of FIFE are twofold: the upscale integration of models, and algorithm development for satellite remote sensing. The specific objectives of the field campaigns carried out in 1987 and 1989 were the simultaneous acquisition of satellite, atmospheric, and surface data; and the understanding of the processes controlling surface energy and mass exchange. Collected data were used to study the dynamics of various ecosystem processes (photosynthesis, evaporation and transpiration, autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration, etc.). Modelling terrestrial ecosystems at scales larger than that of a homogeneous plot led to the development of simple, generalized models of biogeochemical cycles that can be accurately applied to different biomes through the use of remotely sensed data. A model was developed called BIOME-BGC (for BioGeochemical Cycles) from a coniferous forest ecosystem model, FOREST-BGC, where a biome is considered a combination of a life forms in a specified climate. A predominately C4-photosynthetic grassland is probably the most different from a coniferous forest possible, hence the FIFE site was an excellent study area for testing BIOME-BGC. The transition from an essentially one-dimensional calculation to three-dimensional, landscape scale simulations requires the introduction of such factors as meteorology, climatology, and geomorphology. By using remotely sensed geographic information data for important model inputs, process-based ecosystem simulations at a variety of scales are possible. The second objective of this study is concerned with determining the accuracy of the estimated fluxes from BIOME-BGC, when extrapolated spatially over the entire 15-km by 15-km FIFE site. To accomplish this objective, a topographically distributed map of soil depth at the FIFE site was developed. These spatially-distributed fluxes were then tested with data from aircraft by eddy-flux correlation obtained during the FIFE experiment.

Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2 O emissions.

PubMed

Ehrhardt, Fiona; Soussana, Jean-François; Bellocchi, Gianni; Grace, Peter; McAuliffe, Russel; Recous, Sylvie; Sándor, Renáta; Smith, Pete; Snow, Val; de Antoni Migliorati, Massimiliano; Basso, Bruno; Bhatia, Arti; Brilli, Lorenzo; Doltra, Jordi; Dorich, Christopher D; Doro, Luca; Fitton, Nuala; Giacomini, Sandro J; Grant, Brian; Harrison, Matthew T; Jones, Stephanie K; Kirschbaum, Miko U F; Klumpp, Katja; Laville, Patricia; Léonard, Joël; Liebig, Mark; Lieffering, Mark; Martin, Raphaël; Massad, Raia S; Meier, Elizabeth; Merbold, Lutz; Moore, Andrew D; Myrgiotis, Vasileios; Newton, Paul; Pattey, Elizabeth; Rolinski, Susanne; Sharp, Joanna; Smith, Ward N; Wu, Lianhai; Zhang, Qing

2018-02-01

Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multi-species agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multi-model ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions for wheat, maize, rice and temperate grasslands. Using a multi-stage modelling protocol, from blind simulations (stage 1) to partial (stages 2-4) and full calibration (stage 5), 24 process-based biogeochemical models were assessed individually or as an ensemble against long-term experimental data from four temperate grassland and five arable crop rotation sites spanning four continents. Comparisons were performed by reference to the experimental uncertainties of observed yields and N 2 O emissions. Results showed that across sites and crop/grassland types, 23%-40% of the uncalibrated individual models were within two standard deviations (SD) of observed yields, while 42 (rice) to 96% (grasslands) of the models were within 1 SD of observed N 2 O emissions. At stage 1, ensembles formed by the three lowest prediction model errors predicted both yields and N 2 O emissions within experimental uncertainties for 44% and 33% of the crop and grassland growth cycles, respectively. Partial model calibration (stages 2-4) markedly reduced prediction errors of the full model ensemble E-median for crop grain yields (from 36% at stage 1 down to 4% on average) and grassland productivity (from 44% to 27%) and to a lesser and more variable extent for N 2 O emissions. Yield-scaled N 2 O emissions (N 2 O emissions divided by crop yields) were ranked accurately by three-model ensembles across crop species and field sites. The potential of using process-based model ensembles to predict jointly productivity and N 2 O emissions at field scale is discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Coupling climate and hydrological models to evaluate the impact of climate change on run of the river hydropower schemes from UK study sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasten-Zapata, Ernesto; Jones, Julie; Moggridge, Helen

2015-04-01

As climate change is expected to generate variations on the Earth's precipitation and temperature, the water cycle will also experience changes. Consequently, water users will have to be prepared for possible changes in future water availability. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on river regimes and the implications to the operation and feasibility of run of the river hydropower schemes by analyzing four UK study sites. Run of the river schemes are selected for analysis due to their higher dependence to the available river flow volumes when compared to storage hydropower schemes that can rely on previously accumulated water volumes (linked to poster in session HS5.3). Global Climate Models (GCMs) represent the main tool to assess future climate change. In this research, Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which dynamically downscale GCM outputs providing higher resolutions, are used as starting point to evaluate climate change within the study catchments. RCM daily temperature and precipitation will be downscaled to an appropriate scale for impact studies and bias corrected using different statistical methods: linear scaling, local intensity scaling, power transformation, variance scaling and delta change correction. The downscaled variables will then be coupled to hydrological models that have been previously calibrated and validated against observed daily river flow data. The coupled hydrological and climate models will then be used to simulate historic river flows that are compared to daily observed values in order to evaluate the model accuracy. As this research will employ several different RCMs (from the EURO-CORDEX simulations), downscaling and bias correction methodologies, greenhouse emission scenarios and hydrological models, the uncertainty of each element will be estimated. According to their uncertainty magnitude, a prediction of the best downscaling approach (or approaches) is expected to be obtained. The current progress of the project will be presented along with the steps to be followed in the future.

Modeling relief demands in an emergency supply chain system under large-scale disasters based on a queuing network.

PubMed

He, Xinhua; Hu, Wenfa

2014-01-01

This paper presents a multiple-rescue model for an emergency supply chain system under uncertainties in large-scale affected area of disasters. The proposed methodology takes into consideration that the rescue demands caused by a large-scale disaster are scattered in several locations; the servers are arranged in multiple echelons (resource depots, distribution centers, and rescue center sites) located in different places but are coordinated within one emergency supply chain system; depending on the types of rescue demands, one or more distinct servers dispatch emergency resources in different vehicle routes, and emergency rescue services queue in multiple rescue-demand locations. This emergency system is modeled as a minimal queuing response time model of location and allocation. A solution to this complex mathematical problem is developed based on genetic algorithm. Finally, a case study of an emergency supply chain system operating in Shanghai is discussed. The results demonstrate the robustness and applicability of the proposed model.

Scaling properties of a rice-pile model: inertia and friction effects.

PubMed

Khfifi, M; Loulidi, M

2008-11-01

We present a rice-pile cellular automaton model that includes inertial and friction effects. This model is studied in one dimension, where the updating of metastable sites is done according to a stochastic dynamics governed by a probabilistic toppling parameter p that depends on the accumulated energy of moving grains. We investigate the scaling properties of the model using finite-size scaling analysis. The avalanche size, the lifetime, and the residence time distributions exhibit a power-law behavior. Their corresponding critical exponents, respectively, tau, y, and yr, are not universal. They present continuous variation versus the parameters of the system. The maximal value of the critical exponent tau that our model gives is very close to the experimental one, tau=2.02 [Frette, Nature (London) 379, 49 (1996)], and the probability distribution of the residence time is in good agreement with the experimental results. We note that the critical behavior is observed only in a certain range of parameter values of the system which correspond to low inertia and high friction.

Modeling Relief Demands in an Emergency Supply Chain System under Large-Scale Disasters Based on a Queuing Network

PubMed Central

He, Xinhua

2014-01-01

This paper presents a multiple-rescue model for an emergency supply chain system under uncertainties in large-scale affected area of disasters. The proposed methodology takes into consideration that the rescue demands caused by a large-scale disaster are scattered in several locations; the servers are arranged in multiple echelons (resource depots, distribution centers, and rescue center sites) located in different places but are coordinated within one emergency supply chain system; depending on the types of rescue demands, one or more distinct servers dispatch emergency resources in different vehicle routes, and emergency rescue services queue in multiple rescue-demand locations. This emergency system is modeled as a minimal queuing response time model of location and allocation. A solution to this complex mathematical problem is developed based on genetic algorithm. Finally, a case study of an emergency supply chain system operating in Shanghai is discussed. The results demonstrate the robustness and applicability of the proposed model. PMID:24688367

Surface albedo in relation to disturbance and early stand dynamics in the boreal forest: Implications for climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halim, M. A.; Thomas, S. C.

2017-12-01

Surface albedo is the most important biophysical radiative forcing in the boreal forest. General Circulation Model studies have suggested that harvesting of boreal forest has a net cooling effect, in contrast to other terrestrial biomes, by increasing surface albedo. However, albedo estimation in these models has been achieved by simplifying processes governing albedo at a coarse scale (both spatial and temporal). Biophysical processes that determine albedo likely operate on small spatial and temporal scales, requiring more direct estimates of effects of landcover change on net radiation. We established a chronosequence study in post-fire and post-clearcut sites (2013, 2006, 1998), logging data from July 2013 to July 2017 in boreal forest sites in northwestern Ontario, Canada. Each age-class X disturbance had 3 three replicates, matched to 18 permanent circular plots (10-m radius) each with an instrumented tower measuring surface albedo, air and soil temperature, and soil moisture. We also measured leaf area index, species composition and soil organic matter content at each site. BRDF-corrected surface albedo was calculated from daily 30m x 30m reflectance data fused from the MODIS MOD09GA product and Landsat 7 reflectance data. Calculated albedo was verified using ground-based measurements. Results show that fire sites generally had lower (15-25%) albedo than clearcut sites in all seasons. Because of rapid forest regrowth, large perturbations of clearcut harvests on forest albedo started to fade out within a year. Albedo differences between fire and clearcut sites also declined sharply with stand age. Younger stands generally had higher albedo than older stands mainly due to the presence of broadleaf species (for example, Populus tremuloides). In spring, snow melted 10-12 days earlier in recent (2013) clearcut sites compared to closed-canopy sites, causing a sharp reduction in surface albedo in comparison to old clearcut/fire sites (2006 and 1998). Snow melted faster in post-fire sites than in clearcut sites, with concomitant effects on albedo associated with snow. Findings of this study strongly suggest that harvests in boreal forest do not have as strong a radiative cooling effect as previously inferred from GCM experiments based on coarse-resolution data or "biome substitution" approaches.

Pilot-scale ISCO treatment of a MtBE contaminated site using a Fenton-like process.

PubMed

Innocenti, Ivan; Verginelli, Iason; Massetti, Felicia; Piscitelli, Daniela; Gavasci, Renato; Baciocchi, Renato

2014-07-01

This paper reports about a pilot-scale feasibility study of In-Situ Chemical Oxidation (ISCO) application based on the use of stabilized hydrogen peroxide catalyzed by naturally occurring iron minerals (Fenton-like process) to a site formerly used for fuel storage and contaminated by MtBE. The stratigraphy of the site consists of a 2-3 meter backfill layer followed by a 3-4 meter low permeability layer, that confines the main aquifer, affected by a widespread MtBE groundwater contamination with concentrations up to 4000 μg/L, also with the presence of petroleum hydrocarbons. The design of the pilot-scale treatment was based on the integration of the results obtained from experimental and numerical modeling accounting for the technological and regulatory constraints existing in the site to be remediated. In particular, lab-scale batch tests allowed the selection of the most suitable operating conditions. Then, this information was implemented in a numerical software that allowed to define the injection and monitoring layout and to predict the propagation of hydrogen peroxide in groundwater. The pilot-scale field results confirmed the effective propagation of hydrogen peroxide in nearly all the target area (around 75 m(2) using 3 injection wells). As far as the MtBE removal is concerned, the ISCO application allowed us to meet the clean-up goals in an area of 60 m(2). Besides, the concentration of TBA, i.e. a potential by-product of MtBE oxidation, was actually reduced after the ISCO treatment. The results of the pilot-scale test suggest that ISCO may be a suitable option for the remediation of the groundwater plume contaminated by MtBE, providing the background data for the design and cost-estimate of the full-scale treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distributed cerebellar plasticity implements generalized multiple-scale memory components in real-robot sensorimotor tasks.

PubMed

Casellato, Claudia; Antonietti, Alberto; Garrido, Jesus A; Ferrigno, Giancarlo; D'Angelo, Egidio; Pedrocchi, Alessandra

2015-01-01

The cerebellum plays a crucial role in motor learning and it acts as a predictive controller. Modeling it and embedding it into sensorimotor tasks allows us to create functional links between plasticity mechanisms, neural circuits and behavioral learning. Moreover, if applied to real-time control of a neurorobot, the cerebellar model has to deal with a real noisy and changing environment, thus showing its robustness and effectiveness in learning. A biologically inspired cerebellar model with distributed plasticity, both at cortical and nuclear sites, has been used. Two cerebellum-mediated paradigms have been designed: an associative Pavlovian task and a vestibulo-ocular reflex, with multiple sessions of acquisition and extinction and with different stimuli and perturbation patterns. The cerebellar controller succeeded to generate conditioned responses and finely tuned eye movement compensation, thus reproducing human-like behaviors. Through a productive plasticity transfer from cortical to nuclear sites, the distributed cerebellar controller showed in both tasks the capability to optimize learning on multiple time-scales, to store motor memory and to effectively adapt to dynamic ranges of stimuli.

Constraining Aggregate-Scale Solar Energy Partitioning in Arctic Sea Ice Through Synthesis of Remote Sensing and Autonomous In-Situ Observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, N.; Polashenski, C. M.; Deeb, E. J.; Morriss, B. F.; Song, A.; Chen, J.

2015-12-01

One of the key processes controlling sea ice mass balance in the Arctic is the partitioning of solar energy between reflection back to the atmosphere and absorption into the ice and upper ocean. We investigate the solar energy balance in the ice-ocean system using in-situ data collected from Arctic Observing Network (AON) sea ice sites and imagery from high resolution optical satellites. AON assets, including ice mass balance buoys and ice tethered profilers, monitor the storage and fluxes of heat in the ice-ocean system. High resolution satellite imagery, processed using object-based image classification techniques, allows us to quantify the evolution of surrounding ice conditions, including melt pond coverage and floe size distribution, at aggregate scale. We present results from regionally representative sites that constrain the partitioning of absorbed solar energy between ice melt and ocean storage, and quantify the strength of the ice-albedo feedback. We further demonstrate how the results can be used to validate model representations of the physical processes controlling ice-albedo feedbacks. The techniques can be extended to understand solar partitioning across the Arctic basin using additional sites and model based data integration.

Bed site selection by a subordinate predator: an example with the cougar (Puma concolor) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

PubMed

Kusler, Anna; Elbroch, L Mark; Quigley, Howard; Grigione, Melissa

2017-01-01

As technology has improved, our ability to study cryptic animal behavior has increased. Bed site selection is one such example. Among prey species, bed site selection provides thermoregulatory benefits and mitigates predation risk, and may directly influence survival. We conducted research to test whether a subordinate carnivore also selected beds with similar characteristics in an ecosystem supporting a multi-species guild of competing predators. We employed a model comparison approach in which we tested whether cougar ( Puma concolor ) bed site attributes supported the thermoregulatory versus the predator avoidance hypotheses, or exhibited characteristics supporting both hypotheses. Between 2012-2016, we investigated 599 cougar bed sites in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and examined attributes at two scales: the landscape (second-order, n  = 599) and the microsite (fourth order, n  = 140). At the landscape scale, cougars selected bed sites in winter that supported both the thermoregulatory and predator avoidance hypotheses: bed sites were on steeper slopes but at lower elevations, closer to the forest edge, away from sagebrush and meadow habitat types, and on southern, eastern, and western-facing slopes. In the summer, bed attributes supported the predator avoidance hypothesis over the thermoregulation hypothesis: beds were closer to forest edges, away from sagebrush and meadow habitat classes, and on steeper slopes. At the microsite scale, cougar bed attributes in both the winter and summer supported both the predator avoidance and thermoregulatory hypotheses: they selected bed sites with high canopy cover, high vegetative concealment, and in a rugged habitat class characterized by cliff bands and talus fields. We found that just like prey species, a subordinate predator selected bed sites that facilitated both thermoregulatory and anti-predator functions. In conclusion, we believe that measuring bed site attributes may provide a novel means of measuring the use of refugia by subordinate predators, and ultimately provide new insights into the habitat requirements and energetics of subordinate carnivores.

Monitoring and Modeling Carbon Dynamics at a Network of Intensive Sites in the USA and Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birdsey, R.; Wayson, C.; Johnson, K. D.; Pan, Y.; Angeles, G.; De Jong, B. H.; Andrade, J. L.; Dai, Z.

2013-05-01

The Forest Services of the USA and Mexico, supported by NASA and USAID, have begun to establish a network of intensive forest carbon monitoring sites. These sites are used for research and teaching, developing forest management practices, and forging links to the needs of communities. Several of the sites have installed eddy flux towers to basic meteorology data and daily estimates of forest carbon uptake and release, the processes that determine forest growth. Field sampling locations at each site provide estimates of forest biomass and carbon stocks, and monitor forest dynamic processes such as growth and mortality rates. Remote sensing facilitates scaling up to the surrounding landscapes. The sites support information requirements for implementing programs such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+), enabling communities to receive payments for ecosystem services such as reduced carbon emissions or improved forest management. In addition to providing benchmark data for REDD+ projects, the sites are valuable for validating state and national estimates from satellite remote sensing and the national forest inventory. Data from the sites provide parameters for forest models that support strategic management analysis, and support student training and graduate projects. The intensive monitoring sites may be a model for other countries in Latin America. Coordination among sites in the USA, Mexico and other Latin American countries can ensure harmonization of approaches and data, and share experiences and knowledge among countries with emerging opportunities for implementing REDD+ and other conservation programs.

Spatial occupancy models applied to atlas data show Southern Ground Hornbills strongly depend on protected areas.

PubMed

Broms, Kristin M; Johnson, Devin S; Altwegg, Res; Conquest, Loveday L

2014-03-01

Determining the range of a species and exploring species--habitat associations are central questions in ecology and can be answered by analyzing presence--absence data. Often, both the sampling of sites and the desired area of inference involve neighboring sites; thus, positive spatial autocorrelation between these sites is expected. Using survey data for the Southern Ground Hornbill (Bucorvus leadbeateri) from the Southern African Bird Atlas Project, we compared advantages and disadvantages of three increasingly complex models for species occupancy: an occupancy model that accounted for nondetection but assumed all sites were independent, and two spatial occupancy models that accounted for both nondetection and spatial autocorrelation. We modeled the spatial autocorrelation with an intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) model and with a restricted spatial regression (RSR) model. Both spatial models can readily be applied to any other gridded, presence--absence data set using a newly introduced R package. The RSR model provided the best inference and was able to capture small-scale variation that the other models did not. It showed that ground hornbills are strongly dependent on protected areas in the north of their South African range, but less so further south. The ICAR models did not capture any spatial autocorrelation in the data, and they took an order, of magnitude longer than the RSR models to run. Thus, the RSR occupancy model appears to be an attractive choice for modeling occurrences at large spatial domains, while accounting for imperfect detection and spatial autocorrelation.

Landscape models of brook trout abundance and distribution in lotic habitat with field validation

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenna, James E.; Johnson, James H.

2011-01-01

Brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis are native fish in decline owing to environmental changes. Predictions of their potential distribution and a better understanding of their relationship to habitat conditions would enhance the management and conservation of this valuable species. We used over 7,800 brook trout observations throughout New York State and georeferenced, multiscale landscape condition data to develop four regionally specific artificial neural network models to predict brook trout abundance in rivers and streams. Land cover data provided a general signature of human activity, but other habitat variables were resistant to anthropogenic changes (i.e., changing on a geological time scale). The resulting models predict the potential for any stream to support brook trout. The models were validated by holding 20% of the data out as a test set and by comparison with additional field collections from a variety of habitat types. The models performed well, explaining more than 90% of data variability. Errors were often associated with small spatial displacements of predicted values. When compared with the additional field collections (39 sites), 92% of the predictions were off by only a single class from the field-observed abundances. Among “least-disturbed” field collection sites, all predictions were correct or off by a single abundance class, except for one where brown trout Salmo trutta were present. Other degrading factors were evident at most sites where brook trout were absent or less abundant than predicted. The most important habitat variables included landscape slope, stream and drainage network sizes, water temperature, and extent of forest cover. Predicted brook trout abundances were applied to all New York streams, providing a synoptic map of the distribution of brook trout habitat potential. These fish models set benchmarks of best potential for streams to support brook trout under broad-scale human influences and can assist with planning and identification of protection or rehabilitation sites.

Climate-driven uncertainties in modeling terrestrial gross primary production: a site level to global-scale analysis.

PubMed

Barman, Rahul; Jain, Atul K; Liang, Miaoling

2014-05-01

We used a land surface model to quantify the causes and extents of biases in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) due to the use of meteorological reanalysis datasets. We first calibrated the model using meteorology and eddy covariance data from 25 flux tower sites ranging from the tropics to the northern high latitudes and subsequently repeated the site simulations using two reanalysis datasets: NCEP/NCAR and CRUNCEP. The results show that at most sites, the reanalysis-driven GPP bias was significantly positive with respect to the observed meteorology-driven simulations. Notably, the absolute GPP bias was highest at the tropical evergreen tree sites, averaging up to ca. 0.45 kg C m(-2)  yr(-1) across sites (ca. 15% of site level GPP). At the northern mid-/high-latitude broadleaf deciduous and the needleleaf evergreen tree sites, the corresponding annual GPP biases were up to 20%. For the nontree sites, average annual biases of up to ca. 20-30% were simulated within savanna, grassland, and shrubland vegetation types. At the tree sites, the biases in short-wave radiation and humidity strongly influenced the GPP biases, while the nontree sites were more affected by biases in factors controlling water stress (precipitation, humidity, and air temperature). In this study, we also discuss the influence of seasonal patterns of meteorological biases on GPP. Finally, using model simulations for the global land surface, we discuss the potential impacts of site-level reanalysis-driven biases on the global estimates of GPP. In a broader context, our results can have important consequences on other terrestrial ecosystem fluxes (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem production, energy/water fluxes) and reservoirs (e.g., soil carbon stocks). In a complementary study (Barman et al., ), we extend the present analysis for latent and sensible heat fluxes, thus consistently integrating the analysis of climate-driven uncertainties in carbon, energy, and water fluxes using a single modeling framework. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How can prescribed burning and harvesting restore shortleaf pine-oak woodland at the landscape scale in central United States? Modeling joint effects of harvest and fire regimes

Treesearch

Wenchi Jin; Hong S. He; Stephen R. Shifley; Wen J. Wang; John M. Kabrick; Brian K. Davidson

2018-01-01

Historical fire regimes in the central United States maintained open-canopy shortleaf pine-oak woodlands on xeric sites. Following large-scale harvest and fire suppression, those woodlands grew denser with more continuous canopy cover, and they gained mesic species at the expense of shortleaf pine. There is high interest in restoring shortleaf pine-oak woodlands; most...

Modeling dynamics of western juniper under climate change in a semiarid ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, R.; Glenn, N. F.; Flores, A. N.

2013-12-01

Modeling future vegetation dynamics in response to climate change and disturbances such as fire relies heavily on model parameterization. Fine-scale field-based measurements can provide the necessary parameters for constraining models at a larger scale. But the time- and labor-intensive nature of field-based data collection leads to sparse sampling and significant spatial uncertainties in retrieved parameters. In this study we quantify the fine-scale carbon dynamics and uncertainty of juniper woodland in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) in southern Idaho, which is a proposed critical zone observatory (CZO) site for soil carbon processes. We leverage field-measured vegetation data along with airborne lidar and timeseries Landsat imagery to initialize a state-and-transition model (VDDT) and a process-based fire-model (FlamMap) to examine the vegetation dynamics in response to stochastic fire events and climate change. We utilize recently developed and novel techniques to measure biomass and canopy characteristics of western juniper at the individual tree scale using terrestrial and airborne laser scanning techniques in RCEW. These fine-scale data are upscaled across the watershed for the VDDT and FlamMap models. The results will immediately improve our understanding of fine-scale dynamics and carbon stocks and fluxes of woody vegetation in a semi-arid ecosystem. Moreover, quantification of uncertainty will also provide a basis for generating ensembles of spatially-explicit alternative scenarios to guide future land management decisions in the region.

Development of an analytical model for estimating global terrestrial carbon assimilation using a rate-limitation framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donohue, Randall; Yang, Yuting; McVicar, Tim; Roderick, Michael

2016-04-01

A fundamental question in climate and ecosystem science is "how does climate regulate the land surface carbon budget?" To better answer that question, here we develop an analytical model for estimating mean annual terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), which is the largest carbon flux over land, based on a rate-limitation framework. Actual GPP (climatological mean from 1982 to 2010) is calculated as a function of the balance between two GPP potentials defined by the climate (i.e., precipitation and solar radiation) and a third parameter that encodes other environmental variables and modifies the GPP-climate relationship. The developed model was tested at three spatial scales using different GPP sources, i.e., (1) observed GPP from 94 flux-sites, (2) modelled GPP (using the model-tree-ensemble approach) at 48654 (0.5 degree) grid-cells and (3) at 32 large catchments across the globe. Results show that the proposed model could account for the spatial GPP patterns, with a root-mean-square error of 0.70, 0.65 and 0.3 g C m-2 d-1 and R2 of 0.79, 0.92 and 0.97 for the flux-site, grid-cell and catchment scales, respectively. This analytical GPP model shares a similar form with the Budyko hydroclimatological model, which opens the possibility of a general analytical framework to analyze the linked carbon-water-energy cycles.

OBSERVABLE INDICATORS OF THE SENSITIVITY OF PM2.5 NITRATE TO EMISSION REDUCTIONS PART I: DERIVATION OF THE ADJUSTED GAS RATIO AND APPLICABILITY AT REGULATORY-RELEVANT TIME SCALES

EPA Science Inventory

Chemical transport models have frequently been used to evaluate the impacts of emission reductions on inorganic PM2.5. However, such models are limited in their accuracy by uncertain estimates of the spatial and temporal characterization of emissions and meteorology. Site-speci...

Case Studies of Successful Schoolwide Enrichment Model-Reading (SEM-R) Classroom Implementations. Research Monograph Series. RM10204

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reis, Sally M.; Little, Catherine A.; Fogarty, Elizabeth; Housand, Angela M.; Housand, Brian C.; Sweeny, Sheelah M.; Eckert, Rebecca D.; Muller, Lisa M.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this qualitative study was to examine the scaling up of the Schoolwide Enrichment Model in Reading (SEM-R) in 11 elementary and middle schools in geographically diverse sites across the country. Qualitative comparative analysis was used in this study, with multiple data sources compiled into 11 in-depth school case studies…