GIS-based rapid-assessment of bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis (Richardson, 1845) suitability in reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, James M.; Liang, Yu; Shoup, Daniel E.; Dzialowski, Andrew R.; Bidwell, Joseph R.

2014-01-01

Broad-scale niche models are good for examining the potential for invasive species occurrences, but can fall short in providing managers with site-specific locations for monitoring. Using Oklahoma as an example, where invasive bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) are established in certain reservoirs, but predicted to be widely distributed based on broad-scale niche models, we cast bighead carp reproductive ecology in a site-specific geospatial framework to determine their potential establishment in additional reservoirs. Because bighead carp require large, long free-flowing rivers with suitable hydrology for reproduction but can persist in reservoirs, we considered reservoir tributaries with mean annual daily discharge ≥8.5 cubic meters per second (m3 /s) and quantified the length of their unimpeded portions. In contrast to published broad-scale niche models that identified nearly the entire state as susceptible to invasion, our site-specific models showed that few reservoirs in Oklahoma (N = 9) were suitable for bighead carp establishment. Moreover, this method was rapid and identified sites that could be prioritized for increased study or scrutiny. Our results highlight the importance of considering the environmental characteristics of individual sites, which is often the level at which management efforts are implemented when assessing susceptibility to invasion.

Temporal scaling of groundwater level fluctuations near a stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, K.E.; Zhang, Y.-K.

2012-01-01

Temporal scaling in stream discharge and hydraulic heads in riparian wells was evaluated to determine the feasibility of using spectral analysis to identify potential surface and groundwater interaction. In floodplains where groundwater levels respond rapidly to precipitation recharge, potential interaction is established if the hydraulic head (h) spectrum of riparian groundwater has a power spectral density similar to stream discharge (Q), exhibiting a characteristic breakpoint between high and low frequencies. At a field site in Walnut Creek watershed in central Iowa, spectral analysis of h in wells located 1 m from the channel edge showed a breakpoint in scaling very similar to the spectrum of Q (~20 h), whereas h in wells located 20 and 40 m from the channel showed temporal scaling from 1 to 10,000 h without a well-defined breakpoint. The spectral exponent (??) in the riparian zone decreased systematically from the channel into the floodplain as groundwater levels were increasingly dominated by white noise groundwater recharge. The scaling pattern of hydraulic head was not affected by land cover type, although the number of analyses was limited and site conditions were variable among sites. Spectral analysis would not replace quantitative tracer or modeling studies, but the method may provide a simple means of confirming potential interaction at some sites. ?? 2011, The Author(s). Ground Water ?? 2011, National Ground Water Association.

Temporal scaling of groundwater level fluctuations near a stream.

PubMed

Schilling, Keith E; Zhang, You-Kuan

2012-01-01

Temporal scaling in stream discharge and hydraulic heads in riparian wells was evaluated to determine the feasibility of using spectral analysis to identify potential surface and groundwater interaction. In floodplains where groundwater levels respond rapidly to precipitation recharge, potential interaction is established if the hydraulic head (h) spectrum of riparian groundwater has a power spectral density similar to stream discharge (Q), exhibiting a characteristic breakpoint between high and low frequencies. At a field site in Walnut Creek watershed in central Iowa, spectral analysis of h in wells located 1 m from the channel edge showed a breakpoint in scaling very similar to the spectrum of Q (∼20 h), whereas h in wells located 20 and 40 m from the channel showed temporal scaling from 1 to 10,000 h without a well-defined breakpoint. The spectral exponent (β) in the riparian zone decreased systematically from the channel into the floodplain as groundwater levels were increasingly dominated by white noise groundwater recharge. The scaling pattern of hydraulic head was not affected by land cover type, although the number of analyses was limited and site conditions were variable among sites. Spectral analysis would not replace quantitative tracer or modeling studies, but the method may provide a simple means of confirming potential interaction at some sites. © 2011, The Author(s). Ground Water © 2011, National Ground Water Association.

Direct and indirect effects of multiple stressors on stream invertebrates across watershed, reach and site scales: A structural equation modelling better informing on hydromorphological impacts.

PubMed

Villeneuve, B; Piffady, J; Valette, L; Souchon, Y; Usseglio-Polatera, P

2018-01-15

The purpose of our approach was to take into account the nested spatial scales driving stream functioning in the description of pressures/ecological status links by analysing the results of a hierarchical model. The development of this model has allowed us to answer the following questions: Does the consideration of the indirect links between anthropogenic pressures and stream ecological status modify the hierarchy of pressure types impacting benthic invertebrates? Do the different nested scales play different roles in the anthropogenic pressures/ecological status relationship? Does this model lead to better understanding of the specific role of hydromorphology in the evaluation of stream ecological status? To achieve that goal, we used the Partial Least Square (PLS) path modelling method to develop a structural model linking variables describing (i) land use and hydromorphological alterations at the watershed scale, (ii) hydromorphological alterations at the reach scale, (iii) nutrients-organic matter contamination levels at the site scale, and (iv) substrate characteristics at the sampling site scale, to explain variation in values of a macroinvertebrate-based multimetric index: the French I 2 M 2 . We have highlighted the importance of land use effects exerted on both hydromorphological and chemical characteristics of streams observed at finer scales and their subsequent indirect impact on stream ecological status. Hydromorphological alterations have an effect on the substrate mosaic structure and on the concentrations of nutrients and organic matter at site scale. This result implies that stream hydromorphology can have a major indirect effect on macroinvertebrate assemblages and that the hierarchy of impacts of anthropogenic pressures on stream ecological status generally described in the literature - often determining strategic restoration priorities - has to be re-examined. Finally, the effects of nutrients and organic matter on macroinvertebrate assemblages are lower than expected when all the indirect effects of land use and hydromorphological alterations are taken into account. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contrasting patterns of fine-scale herb layer species composition in temperate forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chudomelová, Markéta; Zelený, David; Li, Ching-Feng

2017-04-01

Although being well described at the landscape level, patterns in species composition of forest herb layer are rarely studied at smaller scales. Here, we examined fine-scale environmental determinants and spatial structures of herb layer communities in thermophilous oak- and hornbeam dominated forests of the south-eastern part of the Czech Republic. Species composition of herb layer vegetation and environmental variables were recorded within a fixed grid of 2 × 2 m subplots regularly distributed within 1-ha quadrate plots in three forest stands. For each site, environmental models best explaining species composition were constructed using constrained ordination analysis. Spatial eigenvector mapping was used to model and account for spatial structures in community variation. Mean Ellenberg indicator values calculated for each subplot were used for ecological interpretation of spatially structured residual variation. The amount of variation explained by environmental and spatial models as well as the selection of variables with the best explanatory power differed among sites. As an important environmental factor, relative elevation was common to all three sites, while pH and canopy openness were shared by two sites. Both environmental and community variation was mostly coarse-scaled, as was the spatially structured portion of residual variation. When corrected for bias due to spatial autocorrelation, those environmental factors with already weak explanatory power lost their significance. Only a weak evidence of possibly omitted environmental predictor was found for autocorrelated residuals of site models using mean Ellenberg indicator values. Community structure was determined by different factors at different sites. The relative importance of environmental filtering vs. spatial processes was also site specific, implying that results of fine-scale studies tend to be shaped by local conditions. Contrary to expectations based on other studies, overall dominance of spatial processes at fine scale has not been detected. Ecologists should keep this in mind when making generalizations about community dynamics.

A potential-energy scaling model to simulate the initial stages of thin-film growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heinbockel, J. H.; Outlaw, R. A.; Walker, G. H.

1983-01-01

A solid on solid (SOS) Monte Carlo computer simulation employing a potential energy scaling technique was used to model the initial stages of thin film growth. The model monitors variations in the vertical interaction potential that occur due to the arrival or departure of selected adatoms or impurities at all sites in the 400 sq. ft. array. Boltzmann ordered statistics are used to simulate fluctuations in vibrational energy at each site in the array, and the resulting site energy is compared with threshold levels of possible atomic events. In addition to adsorption, desorption, and surface migration, adatom incorporation and diffusion of a substrate atom to the surface are also included. The lateral interaction of nearest, second nearest, and third nearest neighbors is also considered. A series of computer experiments are conducted to illustrate the behavior of the model.

Measuring the patient perspective on latissimus dorsi donor site outcomes following breast reconstruction.

PubMed

Browne, John P; Jeevan, Ranjeet; Pusic, Andrea L; Klassen, Anne F; Gulliver-Clarke, Carmel; Pereira, Jerome; Caddy, Christopher M; Cano, Stefan J

2018-03-01

There is little evidence about the long-term donor site outcome of latissimus dorsi breast reconstruction and no patient-reported outcome measures designed specifically for the procedure. A prospective cohort of breast cancer patients having latissimus dorsi reconstruction after a mastectomy was recruited from 270 hospitals in the United Kingdom. An 18-month follow up questionnaire containing two novel scales was sent to consenting patients. The prevalence of aesthetic and functional morbidity at the donor site was described. The two new scales were refined using the Rasch measurement model and subsequently validated. 1,096 women completed the new scales. 78% of patients reported that no back appearance issues had bothered them "most of the time" or "all of the time" in the past two weeks. The equivalent figure for functional morbidity was 60%. Four items were eliminated following initial psychometric testing. This produced an 8-item Back Appearance scale and an 11-item Back and Shoulder Function scale. Both scales showed adequate fit to the Rasch measurement model. Higher levels of aesthetic and functional bother were observed for completely autologous procedures versus those where latissimus dorsi reconstruction was used to cover an implant (p <0.05). Higher levels of aesthetic bother were observed in women who had suffered a perioperative complication at the donor site (p = 0.003). These results can inform patients of the morbidity associated with latissimus dorsi reconstruction. The new scales can be used to compare groups undergoing different variations of the procedure and to monitor individual patients. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Reservoir Inflow Forecast using Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, S.; Arumugam, S.

2017-12-01

Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) (15-90 days) streamflow forecasting is an emerging area of research that provides seamless information for reservoir operation from weather time scales to seasonal time scales. From an operational perspective, sub-seasonal inflow forecasts are highly valuable as these enable water managers to decide short-term releases (15-30 days), while holding water for seasonal needs (e.g., irrigation and municipal supply) and to meet end-of-the-season target storage at a desired level. We propose a Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (BHHMM) to develop S2S inflow forecasts for the Tennessee Valley Area (TVA) reservoir system. Here, the hidden states are predicted by relevant indices that influence the inflows at S2S time scale. The hidden Markov model also captures the both spatial and temporal hierarchy in predictors that operate at S2S time scale with model parameters being estimated as a posterior distribution using a Bayesian framework. We present our work in two steps, namely single site model and multi-site model. For proof of concept, we consider inflows to Douglas Dam, Tennessee, in the single site model. For multisite model we consider reservoirs in the upper Tennessee valley. Streamflow forecasts are issued and updated continuously every day at S2S time scale. We considered precipitation forecasts obtained from NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) GCM as predictors for developing S2S streamflow forecasts along with relevant indices for predicting hidden states. Spatial dependence of the inflow series of reservoirs are also preserved in the multi-site model. To circumvent the non-normality of the data, we consider the HMM in a Generalized Linear Model setting. Skill of the proposed approach is tested using split sample validation against a traditional multi-site canonical correlation model developed using the same set of predictors. From the posterior distribution of the inflow forecasts, we also highlight different system behavior under varied global and local scale climatic influences from the developed BHMM.

On the design of paleoenvironmental data networks for estimating large-scale patterns of climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutzbach, J. E.; Guetter, P. J.

1980-09-01

Guidelines are determined for the spatial density and location of climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) that are appropriate for estimating the continental- to hemispheric-scale pattern of atmospheric circulation (sea-level pressure). Because instrumental records of temperature and precipitation simulate the climatic information that is contained in certain paleoenvironmental records (tree-ring, pollen, and written-documentary records, for example), these guidelines provide useful sampling strategies for reconstructing the pattern of atmospheric circulation from paleoenvironmental records. The statistical analysis uses a multiple linear regression model. The sampling strategies consist of changes in site density (from 0.5 to 2.5 sites per million square kilometers) and site location (from western North American sites only to sites in Japan, North America, and western Europe) of the climatic data. The results showed that the accuracy of specification of the pattern of sea-level pressure: (1) is improved if sites with climatic records are spread as uniformly as possible over the area of interest; (2) increases with increasing site density-at least up to the maximum site density used in this study; (3) is improved if sites cover an area that extends considerably beyond the limits of the area of interest. The accuracy of specification was lower for independent data than for the data that were used to develop the regression model; some skill was found for almost all sampling strategies.

Integrating fine-scale soil data into species distribution models: preparing Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) data from multiple counties

Treesearch

Matthew P. Peters; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Steve N. Matthews

2013-01-01

Fine-scale soil (SSURGO) data were processed at the county level for 37 states within the eastern United States, initially for use as predictor variables in a species distribution model called DISTRIB II. Values from county polygon files converted into a continuous 30-m raster grid were aggregated to 4-km cells and integrated with other environmental and site condition...

The Site-Scale Saturated Zone Flow Model for Yucca Mountain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Aziz, E.; James, S. C.; Arnold, B. W.; Zyvoloski, G. A.

2006-12-01

This presentation provides a reinterpreted conceptual model of the Yucca Mountain site-scale flow system subject to all quality assurance procedures. The results are based on a numerical model of site-scale saturated zone beneath Yucca Mountain, which is used for performance assessment predictions of radionuclide transport and to guide future data collection and modeling activities. This effort started from the ground up with a revised and updated hydrogeologic framework model, which incorporates the latest lithology data, and increased grid resolution that better resolves the hydrogeologic framework, which was updated throughout the model domain. In addition, faults are much better represented using the 250× 250- m2 spacing (compared to the previous model's 500× 500-m2 spacing). Data collected since the previous model calibration effort have been included and they comprise all Nye County water-level data through Phase IV of their Early Warning Drilling Program. Target boundary fluxes are derived from the newest (2004) Death Valley Regional Flow System model from the US Geologic Survey. A consistent weighting scheme assigns importance to each measured water-level datum and boundary flux extracted from the regional model. The numerical model is calibrated by matching these weighted water level measurements and boundary fluxes using parameter estimation techniques, along with more informal comparisons of the model to hydrologic and geochemical information. The model software (hydrologic simulation code FEHM~v2.24 and parameter estimation software PEST~v5.5) and model setup facilitates efficient calibration of multiple conceptual models. Analyses evaluate the impact of these updates and additional data on the modeled potentiometric surface and the flowpaths emanating from below the repository. After examining the heads and permeabilities obtained from the calibrated models, we present particle pathways from the proposed repository and compare them to those from the previous model calibration. Specific discharge at a point 5~km from the repository is also examined and found to be within acceptable uncertainty. The results show that updated model yields a calibration with smaller residuals than the previous model revision while ensuring that flowpaths follow measured gradients and paths derived from hydrochemical analyses. This work was supported by the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Office as part of the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program, which is managed by the U.S. Department of Energy, Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project. Sandia National Laboratories is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE AC04 94AL85000.

Net nitrogen mineralization in natural ecosystems across the conterminous US

Treesearch

LeeAnna Y. Chapman; Steven G. McNulty; Ge Sun; Yang Zhang

2013-01-01

Nitrogen is the primary nutrient limiting ecosystem productivity over most of the US. Although soil nitrogen content is important, knowledge about its spatial extent at the continental scale is limited. The objective of this study was to estimate net nitrogen mineralization for the conterminous US (CONUS) using an empirical modeling approach by scaling up site level...

A nested observation and model approach to non linear groundwater surface water interactions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, Y.; Rozemeijer, J. C.; de Rooij, G. H.

2009-04-01

Surface water quality measurements in The Netherlands are scattered in time and space. Therefore, water quality status and its variations and trends are difficult to determine. In order to reach the water quality goals according to the European Water Framework Directive, we need to improve our understanding of the dynamics of surface water quality and the processes that affect it. In heavily drained lowland catchment groundwater influences the discharge towards the surface water network in many complex ways. Especially a strong seasonal contracting and expanding system of discharging ditches and streams affects discharge and solute transport. At a tube drained field site the tube drain flux and the combined flux of all other flow routes toward a stretch of 45 m of surface water have been measured for a year. Also the groundwater levels at various locations in the field and the discharge at two nested catchment scales have been monitored. The unique reaction of individual flow routes on rainfall events at the field site allowed us to separate the discharge at a 4 ha catchment and at a 6 km2 into flow route contributions. The results of this nested experimental setup combined with the results of a distributed hydrological model has lead to the formulation of a process model approach that focuses on the spatial variability of discharge generation driven by temporal and spatial variations in groundwater levels. The main idea of this approach is that discharge is not generated by catchment average storages or groundwater heads, but is mainly generated by points scale extremes i.e. extreme low permeability, extreme high groundwater heads or extreme low surface elevations, all leading to catchment discharge. We focused on describing the spatial extremes in point scale storages and this led to a simple and measurable expression that governs the non-linear groundwater surface water interaction. We will present the analysis of the field site data to demonstrate the potential of nested-scale, high frequency observations. The distributed hydrological model results will be used to show transient catchment scale relations between groundwater levels and discharges. These analyses lead to a simple expression that can describe catchment scale groundwater surface water interactions.

Plant traits, productivity, biomass and soil properties from forest sites in the Pacific Northwest, 1999-2014.

PubMed

Berner, Logan T; Law, Beverly E

2016-01-19

Plant trait measurements are needed for evaluating ecological responses to environmental conditions and for ecosystem process model development, parameterization, and testing. We present a standardized dataset integrating measurements from projects conducted by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research and Regional Analysis- Pacific Northwest (TERRA-PNW) research group between 1999 and 2014 across Oregon and Northern California, where measurements were collected for scaling and modeling regional terrestrial carbon processes with models such as Biome-BGC and the Community Land Model. The dataset contains measurements of specific leaf area, leaf longevity, leaf carbon and nitrogen for 35 tree and shrub species derived from more than 1,200 branch samples collected from over 200 forest plots, including several AmeriFlux sites. The dataset also contains plot-level measurements of forest composition, structure (e.g., tree biomass), and productivity, as well as measurements of soil structure (e.g., bulk density) and chemistry (e.g., carbon). Publically-archiving regional datasets of standardized, co-located, and geo-referenced plant trait measurements will advance the ability of earth system models to capture species-level climate sensitivity at regional to global scales.

Plant traits, productivity, biomass and soil properties from forest sites in the Pacific Northwest, 1999-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, Logan T.; Law, Beverly E.

2016-01-01

Plant trait measurements are needed for evaluating ecological responses to environmental conditions and for ecosystem process model development, parameterization, and testing. We present a standardized dataset integrating measurements from projects conducted by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research and Regional Analysis- Pacific Northwest (TERRA-PNW) research group between 1999 and 2014 across Oregon and Northern California, where measurements were collected for scaling and modeling regional terrestrial carbon processes with models such as Biome-BGC and the Community Land Model. The dataset contains measurements of specific leaf area, leaf longevity, leaf carbon and nitrogen for 35 tree and shrub species derived from more than 1,200 branch samples collected from over 200 forest plots, including several AmeriFlux sites. The dataset also contains plot-level measurements of forest composition, structure (e.g., tree biomass), and productivity, as well as measurements of soil structure (e.g., bulk density) and chemistry (e.g., carbon). Publically-archiving regional datasets of standardized, co-located, and geo-referenced plant trait measurements will advance the ability of earth system models to capture species-level climate sensitivity at regional to global scales.

Resolving uncertainty in the spatial relationships between passive benzene exposure and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

PubMed

Switchenko, Jeffrey M; Bulka, Catherine; Ward, Kevin; Koff, Jean L; Bayakly, A Rana; Ryan, P Barry; Waller, Lance A; Flowers, Christopher R

2016-04-01

Benzene is a known occupational carcinogen associated with increased risk of hematologic cancers, but the relationships between quantity of passive benzene exposure through residential proximity to toxic release sites, duration of exposure, lag time from exposure to cancer development, and lymphoma risk remain unclear. We collected release data through the Environmental Protection Agency's Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) from 1989 to 2003, which included location of benzene release sites, years when release occurred, and amount of release. We also collected data on incident cases of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) from the Georgia Comprehensive Cancer Registry (GCCR) for the years 1999-2008. We constructed distance-decay surrogate exposure metrics and Poisson and negative binomial regression models of NHL incidence to quantify associations between passive exposure to benzene and NHL risk and examined the impact of amount, duration of exposure, and lag time on cancer development. Akaike's information criteria (AIC) were used to determine the scaling factors for benzene dispersion and exposure periods that best predicted NHL risk. Using a range of scaling factors and exposure periods, we found that increased levels of passive benzene exposure were associated with higher risk of NHL. The best fitting model, with a scaling factor of 4 kilometers (km) and exposure period of 1989-1993, showed that higher exposure levels were associated with increased NHL risk (Level 4 (1.1-160kilograms (kg)) vs. Level 1: risk ratio 1.56 [1.44-1.68], Level 5 (>160kg) vs. Level 1: 1.60 [1.48-1.74]). Higher levels of passive benzene exposure are associated with increased NHL risk across various lag periods. Additional epidemiological studies are needed to refine these models and better quantify the expected total passive benzene exposure in areas surrounding release sites. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Posttest analysis of the 1:6-scale reinforced concrete containment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pfeiffer, P.A.; Kennedy, J.M.; Marchertas, A.H.

A prediction of the response of the Sandia National Laboratories 1:6- scale reinforced concrete containment model test was made by Argonne National Laboratory. ANL along with nine other organizations performed a detailed nonlinear response analysis of the 1:6-scale model containment subjected to overpressurization in the fall of 1986. The two-dimensional code TEMP-STRESS and the three-dimensional NEPTUNE code were utilized (1) to predict the global response of the structure, (2) to identify global failure sites and the corresponding failure pressures and (3) to identify some local failure sites and pressure levels. A series of axisymmetric models was studied with the two-dimensionalmore » computer program TEMP-STRESS. The comparison of these pretest computations with test data from the containment model has provided a test for the capability of the respective finite element codes to predict global failure modes, and hence serves as a validation of these codes. Only the two-dimensional analyses will be discussed in this paper. 3 refs., 10 figs.« less

Computer 3D site model generation based on aerial images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheltov, Sergey Y.; Blokhinov, Yuri B.; Stepanov, Alexander A.; Skryabin, Sergei V.; Sibiriakov, Alexandre V.

1997-07-01

The technology for 3D model design of real world scenes and its photorealistic rendering are current topics of investigation. Development of such technology is very attractive to implement in vast varieties of applications: military mission planning, crew training, civil engineering, architecture, virtual reality entertainments--just a few were mentioned. 3D photorealistic models of urban areas are often discussed now as upgrade from existing 2D geographic information systems. Possibility of site model generation with small details depends on two main factors: available source dataset and computer power resources. In this paper PC based technology is presented, so the scenes of middle resolution (scale of 1:1000) be constructed. Types of datasets are the gray level aerial stereo pairs of photographs (scale of 1:14000) and true color on ground photographs of buildings (scale ca.1:1000). True color terrestrial photographs are also necessary for photorealistic rendering, that in high extent improves human perception of the scene.

Elimination of the Reaction Rate "Scale Effect": Application of the Lagrangian Reactive Particle-Tracking Method to Simulate Mixing-Limited, Field-Scale Biodegradation at the Schoolcraft (MI, USA) Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Dong; Benson, David A.; Fernández-Garcia, Daniel; Henri, Christopher V.; Hyndman, David W.; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Bolster, Diogo

2017-12-01

Measured (or empirically fitted) reaction rates at groundwater remediation sites are typically much lower than those found in the same material at the batch or laboratory scale. The reduced rates are commonly attributed to poorer mixing at the larger scales. A variety of methods have been proposed to account for this scaling effect in reactive transport. In this study, we use the Lagrangian particle-tracking and reaction (PTR) method to simulate a field bioremediation experiment at the Schoolcraft, MI site. A denitrifying bacterium, Pseudomonas Stutzeri strain KC (KC), was injected to the aquifer, along with sufficient substrate, to degrade the contaminant, carbon tetrachloride (CT), under anaerobic conditions. The PTR method simulates chemical reactions through probabilistic rules of particle collisions, interactions, and transformations to address the scale effect (lower apparent reaction rates for each level of upscaling, from batch to column to field scale). In contrast to a prior Eulerian reaction model, the PTR method is able to match the field-scale experiment using the rate coefficients obtained from batch experiments.

Cross-site comparison of land-use decision-making and its consequences across land systems with a generalized agent-based model.

PubMed

Magliocca, Nicholas R; Brown, Daniel G; Ellis, Erle C

2014-01-01

Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM) as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model) landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model enhancement.

Cross-Site Comparison of Land-Use Decision-Making and Its Consequences across Land Systems with a Generalized Agent-Based Model

PubMed Central

Magliocca, Nicholas R.; Brown, Daniel G.; Ellis, Erle C.

2014-01-01

Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM) as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model) landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model enhancement. PMID:24489696

Compulsive use of social networking sites in Belgium: prevalence, profile, and the role of attitude toward work and school.

PubMed

De Cock, Rozane; Vangeel, Jolien; Klein, Annabelle; Minotte, Pascal; Rosas, Omar; Meerkerk, Gert-Jan

2014-03-01

A representative sample (n=1,000) of the Belgian population aged 18 years and older filled out an online questionnaire on their Internet use in general and their use of social networking sites (SNS) in particular. We measured total time spent on the Internet, time spent on SNS, number of SNS profiles, gender, age, schooling level, income, job occupation, and leisure activities, and we integrated several psychological scales such as the Quick Big Five and the Mastery Scale. Hierarchical multiple regression modeling shows that gender and age explain an important part of the compulsive SNS score (5%) as well as psychological scales (20%), but attitude toward school (additional 3%) and income (2.5%) also add to explained variance in predictive models of compulsive SNS use.

Meter scale variation in shrub dominance and soil moisture structure Arctic arthropod communities

PubMed Central

Hansen, Oskar Liset Pryds; Bowden, Joseph J.; Treier, Urs A.; Normand, Signe; Høye, Toke

2016-01-01

The Arctic is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world. This impacts Arctic species both directly, through increased temperatures, and indirectly, through structural changes in their habitats. Species are expected to exhibit idiosyncratic responses to structural change, which calls for detailed investigations at the species and community level. Here, we investigate how arthropod assemblages of spiders and beetles respond to variation in habitat structure at small spatial scales. We sampled transitions in shrub dominance and soil moisture between three different habitats (fen, dwarf shrub heath, and tall shrub tundra) at three different sites along a fjord gradient in southwest Greenland, using yellow pitfall cups. We identified 2,547 individuals belonging to 47 species. We used species richness estimation, indicator species analysis and latent variable modeling to examine differences in arthropod community structure in response to habitat variation at local (within site) and regional scales (between sites). We estimated species responses to the environment by fitting species-specific generalized linear models with environmental covariates. Species assemblages were segregated at the habitat and site level. Each habitat hosted significant indicator species, and species richness and diversity were significantly lower in fen habitats. Assemblage patterns were significantly linked to changes in soil moisture and vegetation height, as well as geographic location. We show that meter-scale variation among habitats affects arthropod community structure, supporting the notion that the Arctic tundra is a heterogeneous environment. To gain sufficient insight into temporal biodiversity change, we require studies of species distributions detailing species habitat preferences. PMID:27478709

Reconstructing Common Era relative sea-level change on the Gulf Coast of Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerlach, Matthew J.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Moyer, Ryan P.; Smoak, Joseph M.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Cahill, Niamh

2017-01-01

To address a paucity of Common Era data in the Gulf of Mexico, we reconstructed ~ 1.1 m of relative sea-level (RSL) rise over the past ~ 2000 years at Little Manatee River (Gulf Coast of Florida, USA). We applied a regional-scale foraminiferal transfer function to fossil assemblages preserved in a core of salt-marsh peat and organic silt that was dated using radiocarbon and recognition of pollution, 137Cs and pollen chronohorizons. Our proxy reconstruction was combined with tide-gauge data from four nearby sites spanning 1913–2014 CE. Application of an Errors-in-Variables Integrated Gaussian Process (EIV-IGP) model to the combined proxy and instrumental dataset demonstrates that RSL fell from ~ 350 to 100 BCE, before rising continuously to present. This initial RSL fall was likely the result of local-scale processes (e.g., silting up of a tidal flat or shallow sub-tidal shoal) as salt-marsh development at the site began. Since ~ 0 CE, we consider the reconstruction to be representative of regional-scale RSL trends. We removed a linear rate of 0.3 mm/yr from the RSL record using the EIV-IGP model to estimate climate-driven sea-level trends and to facilitate comparison among sites. This analysis demonstrates that since ~ 0 CE sea level did not deviate significantly from zero until accelerating continuously from ~ 1500 CE to present. Sea level was rising at 1.33 mm/yr in 1900 CE and accelerated until 2014 CE when a rate of 2.02 mm/yr was attained, which is the fastest, century-scale trend in the ~ 2000-year record. Comparison to existing reconstructions from the Gulf coast of Louisiana and the Atlantic coast of northern Florida reveal similar sea-level histories at all three sites. We explored the influence of compaction and fluvial processes on our reconstruction and concluded that compaction was likely insignificant. Fluvial processes were also likely insignificant, but further proxy evidence is needed to fully test this hypothesis. Our results indicate that no significant Common Era sea-level changes took place on the Gulf and southeastern Atlantic U.S. coasts until the onset of modern sea-level rise in the late 19th century.

Generalizing ecological site concepts of the Colorado Plateau for landscape-level applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duniway, Michael C.; Nauman, Travis; Johanson, Jamin K.; Green, Shane; Miller, Mark E.; Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.

2016-01-01

Numerous ecological site descriptions in the southern Utah portion of the Colorado Plateau can be difficult to navigate, so we held a workshop aimed at adding value and functionality to the current ecological site system.We created new groups of ecological sites and drafted state-and-transition models for these new groups.We were able to distill the current large number of ecological sites in the study area (ca. 150) into eight ecological site groups that capture important variability in ecosystem dynamics.Several inventory and monitoring programs and landscape scale planning actions will likely benefit from more generalized ecological site group concepts.

Mesoscale carbon sequestration site screening and CCS infrastructure analysis.

PubMed

Keating, Gordon N; Middleton, Richard S; Stauffer, Philip H; Viswanathan, Hari S; Letellier, Bruce C; Pasqualini, Donatella; Pawar, Rajesh J; Wolfsberg, Andrew V

2011-01-01

We explore carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) at the meso-scale, a level of study between regional carbon accounting and highly detailed reservoir models for individual sites. We develop an approach to CO(2) sequestration site screening for industries or energy development policies that involves identification of appropriate sequestration basin, analysis of geologic formations, definition of surface sites, design of infrastructure, and analysis of CO(2) transport and storage costs. Our case study involves carbon management for potential oil shale development in the Piceance-Uinta Basin, CO and UT. This study uses new capabilities of the CO(2)-PENS model for site screening, including reservoir capacity, injectivity, and cost calculations for simple reservoirs at multiple sites. We couple this with a model of optimized source-sink-network infrastructure (SimCCS) to design pipeline networks and minimize CCS cost for a given industry or region. The CLEAR(uff) dynamical assessment model calculates the CO(2) source term for various oil production levels. Nine sites in a 13,300 km(2) area have the capacity to store 6.5 GtCO(2), corresponding to shale-oil production of 1.3 Mbbl/day for 50 years (about 1/4 of U.S. crude oil production). Our results highlight the complex, nonlinear relationship between the spatial deployment of CCS infrastructure and the oil-shale production rate.

A Hydrostratigraphic System for Modeling Groundwater Flow and Radionuclide Migration at the Corrective Action Unit Scale, Nevada Test Site and Surrounding Areas, Clark, Lincoln, and Nye Counties, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prothro, Lance; Drellack Jr., Sigmund; Mercadante, Jennifer

2009-01-31

Underground Test Area (UGTA) corrective action unit (CAU) groundwater flow and contaminant transport models of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and vicinity are built upon hydrostratigraphic framework models (HFMs) that utilize the hydrostratigraphic unit (HSU) as the fundamental modeling component. The delineation and three-dimensional (3-D) modeling of HSUs within the highly complex geologic terrain that is the NTS requires a hydrostratigraphic system that is internally consistent, yet flexible enough to account for overlapping model areas, varied geologic terrain, and the development of multiple alternative HFMs. The UGTA CAU-scale hydrostratigraphic system builds on more than 50 years of geologic and hydrologicmore » work in the NTS region. It includes 76 HSUs developed from nearly 300 stratigraphic units that span more than 570 million years of geologic time, and includes rock units as diverse as marine carbonate and siliciclastic rocks, granitic intrusives, rhyolitic lavas and ash-flow tuffs, and alluvial valley-fill deposits. The UGTA CAU-scale hydrostratigraphic system uses a geology-based approach and two-level classification scheme. The first, or lowest, level of the hydrostratigraphic system is the hydrogeologic unit (HGU). Rocks in a model area are first classified as one of ten HGUs based on the rock’s ability to transmit groundwater (i.e., nature of their porosity and permeability), which at the NTS is mainly a function of the rock’s primary lithology, type and degree of postdepositional alteration, and propensity to fracture. The second, or highest, level within the UGTA CAU-scale hydrostratigraphic system is the HSU, which is the fundamental mapping/modeling unit within UGTA CAU-scale HFMs. HSUs are 3-D bodies that are represented in the finite element mesh for the UGTA groundwater modeling process. HSUs are defined systematically by stratigraphically organizing HGUs of similar character into larger HSUs designations. The careful integration of stratigraphic information in the development of HSUs is important to assure individual HSUs are internally consistent, correlatable, and mappable throughout all the model areas.« less

Comparison of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) to LiDAR for streambank erosion measurement at the site-specific and river network scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamshaw, S. D.; Dewoolkar, M. M.; Rizzo, D.; ONeil-Dunne, J.; Frolik, J.

2016-12-01

Measurement of rates and extent of streambank erosion along river corridors is an important component of many catchment studies and necessary for engineering projects such as river restoration, hazard assessment, and total maximum daily load (TMDL) development. A variety of methods have been developed to quantify streambank erosion, including bank pins, ground surveys, photogrammetry, LiDAR, and analytical models. However, these methods are not only resource intensive, but many are feasible and appropriate only for site-specific studies and not practical for erosion estimates at larger scales. Recent advancements in unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and photogrammetry software provide capabilities for more rapid and economical quantification of streambank erosion and deposition at multiple scales (from site-specific to river network). At the site-specific scale, the capability of UAS to quantify streambank erosion was compared to terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and RTK-GPS ground survey and assessed at seven streambank monitoring sites in central Vermont. Across all sites, the UAS-derived bank topography had mean errors of 0.21 m compared to TLS and GPS data. Highest accuracies were achieved in early spring conditions where mean errors approached 10 cm. The cross sectional area of bank erosion at a typical, vegetated streambank site was found to be reliably calculated within 10% of actual for erosion areas greater than 3.5 m2. At the river network-level scale, 20 km of river corridor along the New Haven, Winooski, and Mad Rivers was flown on multiple dates with UAS and used to generate digital elevation models (DEMs) that were then compared for change detection analysis. Airborne LiDAR data collected prior to UAS surveys was also compared to UAS data to determine multi-year rates of bank erosion. UAS-based photogrammetry for generation of fine scale topographic data shows promise for the monitoring of streambank erosion both at the individual site scale and river-network scale in areas that are not densely covered with vegetation year-round.

Hierarchical drivers of reef-fish metacommunity structure.

PubMed

MacNeil, M Aaron; Graham, Nicholas A J; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Kulbicki, Michel; Galzin, René; Harmelin-Vivien, Mireille; Rushton, Steven P

2009-01-01

Coral reefs are highly complex ecological systems, where multiple processes interact across scales in space and time to create assemblages of exceptionally high biodiversity. Despite the increasing frequency of hierarchically structured sampling programs used in coral-reef science, little progress has been made in quantifying the relative importance of processes operating across multiple scales. The vast majority of reef studies are conducted, or at least analyzed, at a single spatial scale, ignoring the implicitly hierarchical structure of the overall system in favor of small-scale experiments or large-scale observations. Here we demonstrate how alpha (mean local number of species), beta diversity (degree of species dissimilarity among local sites), and gamma diversity (overall species richness) vary with spatial scale, and using a hierarchical, information-theoretic approach, we evaluate the relative importance of site-, reef-, and atoll-level processes driving the fish metacommunity structure among 10 atolls in French Polynesia. Process-based models, representing well-established hypotheses about drivers of reef-fish community structure, were assembled into a candidate set of 12 hierarchical linear models. Variation in fish abundance, biomass, and species richness were unevenly distributed among transect, reef, and atoll levels, establishing the relative contribution of variation at these spatial scales to the structure of the metacommunity. Reef-fish biomass, species richness, and the abundance of most functional-groups corresponded primarily with transect-level habitat diversity and atoll-lagoon size, whereas detritivore and grazer abundances were largely correlated with potential covariates of larval dispersal. Our findings show that (1) within-transect and among-atoll factors primarily drive the relationship between alpha and gamma diversity in this reef-fish metacommunity; (2) habitat is the primary correlate with reef-fish metacommunity structure at multiple spatial scales; and (3) inter-atoll connectedness was poorly correlated with the nonrandom clustering of reef-fish species. These results demonstrate the importance of modeling hierarchical data and processes in understanding reef-fish metacommunity structure.

Multimethod, multistate Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for use in regional monitoring of wolves.

PubMed

Jiménez, José; García, Emilio J; Llaneza, Luis; Palacios, Vicente; González, Luis Mariano; García-Domínguez, Francisco; Múñoz-Igualada, Jaime; López-Bao, José Vicente

2016-08-01

In many cases, the first step in large-carnivore management is to obtain objective, reliable, and cost-effective estimates of population parameters through procedures that are reproducible over time. However, monitoring predators over large areas is difficult, and the data have a high level of uncertainty. We devised a practical multimethod and multistate modeling approach based on Bayesian hierarchical-site-occupancy models that combined multiple survey methods to estimate different population states for use in monitoring large predators at a regional scale. We used wolves (Canis lupus) as our model species and generated reliable estimates of the number of sites with wolf reproduction (presence of pups). We used 2 wolf data sets from Spain (Western Galicia in 2013 and Asturias in 2004) to test the approach. Based on howling surveys, the naïve estimation (i.e., estimate based only on observations) of the number of sites with reproduction was 9 and 25 sites in Western Galicia and Asturias, respectively. Our model showed 33.4 (SD 9.6) and 34.4 (3.9) sites with wolf reproduction, respectively. The number of occupied sites with wolf reproduction was 0.67 (SD 0.19) and 0.76 (0.11), respectively. This approach can be used to design more cost-effective monitoring programs (i.e., to define the sampling effort needed per site). Our approach should inspire well-coordinated surveys across multiple administrative borders and populations and lead to improved decision making for management of large carnivores on a landscape level. The use of this Bayesian framework provides a simple way to visualize the degree of uncertainty around population-parameter estimates and thus provides managers and stakeholders an intuitive approach to interpreting monitoring results. Our approach can be widely applied to large spatial scales in wildlife monitoring where detection probabilities differ between population states and where several methods are being used to estimate different population parameters. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Scaling Forest Management Practices in Earth System Models: Case Study of Southeast and Pacific Northwest Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourmokhtarian, A.; Becknell, J. M.; Hall, J.; Desai, A. R.; Boring, L. R.; Duffy, P.; Staudhammer, C. L.; Starr, G.; Dietze, M.

2014-12-01

A wide array of human-induced disturbances can alter the structure and function of forests, including climate change, disturbance and management. While there have been numerous studies on climate change impacts on forests, interactions of management with changing climate and natural disturbance are poorly studied. Forecasts of the range of plausible responses of forests to climate change and management are need for informed decision making on new management approaches under changing climate, as well as adaptation strategies for coming decades. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) provide an excellent opportunity to investigate and assess simultaneous responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climatic perturbations and management across multiple spatio-temporal scales, but currently do not represent a wide array of management activities known to impact carbon, water, surface energy fluxes, and biodiversity. The Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) incorporates non-linear impacts of fine-scale (~10-1 km) heterogeneity in ecosystem structure both horizontally and vertically at a plant level. Therefore it is an ideal candidate to incorporate different forest management practices and test various hypotheses under changing climate and across various spatial scales. The management practices that we implemented were: clear-cut, conversion, planting, partial harvest, low intensity fire, restoration, salvage, and herbicide. The results were validated against observed data across 8 different sites in the U.S. Southeast (Duke Forest, Joseph Jones Ecological Research Center, North Carolina Loblolly Pine, and Ordway-Swisher Biological Station) and Pacific Northwest (Metolius Research Natural Area, H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Wind River Field Station, and Mount Rainier National Park). These sites differ in regards to climate, vegetation, soil, and historical land disturbance as well as management approaches. Results showed that different management practices could successfully and realistically be implemented in the ED2 model at a site level. Moreover, sensitivity analyses determined the most important processes at different spatial scales, and also those which could be ignored while minimizing overall error.

Plant traits, productivity, biomass and soil properties from forest sites in the Pacific Northwest, 1999–2014

PubMed Central

Berner, Logan T.; Law, Beverly E.

2016-01-01

Plant trait measurements are needed for evaluating ecological responses to environmental conditions and for ecosystem process model development, parameterization, and testing. We present a standardized dataset integrating measurements from projects conducted by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research and Regional Analysis- Pacific Northwest (TERRA-PNW) research group between 1999 and 2014 across Oregon and Northern California, where measurements were collected for scaling and modeling regional terrestrial carbon processes with models such as Biome-BGC and the Community Land Model. The dataset contains measurements of specific leaf area, leaf longevity, leaf carbon and nitrogen for 35 tree and shrub species derived from more than 1,200 branch samples collected from over 200 forest plots, including several AmeriFlux sites. The dataset also contains plot-level measurements of forest composition, structure (e.g., tree biomass), and productivity, as well as measurements of soil structure (e.g., bulk density) and chemistry (e.g., carbon). Publically-archiving regional datasets of standardized, co-located, and geo-referenced plant trait measurements will advance the ability of earth system models to capture species-level climate sensitivity at regional to global scales. PMID:26784559

Plant traits, productivity, biomass and soil properties from forest sites in the Pacific Northwest, 1999–2014

DOE PAGES

Berner, Logan T.; Law, Beverly E.

2016-01-19

Plant trait measurements are needed for evaluating ecological responses to environmental conditions and for ecosystem process model development, parameterization, and testing. Here, we present a standardized dataset integrating measurements from projects conducted by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research and Regional Analysis- Pacific Northwest (TERRA-PNW) research group between 1999 and 2014 across Oregon and Northern California, where measurements were collected for scaling and modeling regional terrestrial carbon processes with models such as Biome-BGC and the Community Land Model. The dataset contains measurements of specific leaf area, leaf longevity, leaf carbon and nitrogen for 35 tree and shrub species derived from more thanmore » 1,200 branch samples collected from over 200 forest plots, including several AmeriFlux sites. The dataset also contains plot-level measurements of forest composition, structure (e.g., tree biomass), and productivity, as well as measurements of soil structure (e.g., bulk density) and chemistry (e.g., carbon). Publically-archiving regional datasets of standardized, co-located, and geo-referenced plant trait measurements will advance the ability of earth system models to capture species-level climate sensitivity at regional to global scales.« less

Integrating single-species management and landscape conservation using regional habitat occurrence models: The northern goshawk in the Southwest, USA

Treesearch

Brett G. Dickson; Thomas D. Sisk; Steven E. Sesnie; Richard T. Reynolds; Steven S. Rosenstock; Christina D. Vojta; Michael F. Ingraldi; Jill M. Rundall

2014-01-01

Conservation planners and land managers are often confronted with scale-associated challenges when assessing the relationship between land management objectives and species conservation. Conservation of individual species typically involves site-level analyses of habitat, whereas land management focuses on larger spatial extents. New models are needed to more...

Comparable Monoterpene emission from pine forests across 500 mm precipitation gradient in the semi-arid transition zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seco, Roger; Karl, Thomas; Turnipseed, Andrew; Greenberg, Jim; Guenther, Alex; Llusia, Joan; Penuelas, Josep; Dicken, Uri; Rotenberg, Eyal; Rohatyn, Shani; Preisler, Yakir; Yakir, Dan

2014-05-01

Atmospheric volatile organic compounds (VOCs) have key environmental and biological roles, and can affect atmospheric chemistry, secondary aerosol formation, and as a consequence also climate. At the same time, global changes in climate arising from human activities can modify the VOC emissions of vegetation in the coming years. Monoterpene emission fluxes were measured during April 2013 at two forests in the semi-arid climate of Israel. Both forests were dominated by Pinus halepensis trees of similar age, but differed in the amount of annual average precipitation received (~276 and ~760 mm at the Yatir and Birya sites, respectively). Measurements performed included leaf-level sampling and gas exchange, as well as canopy-level flux calculations. Leaf level monoterpene emissions were sampled from leaf cuvettes with adsorbent cartridges and later analyzed by GC-MS. Canopy scale fluxes were calculated with the Disjunct Eddy Covariance technique by means of a Quadrupole PTRMS and eddy-covariance system. We report the differences observed between the two forests in terms of photosynthetic activity and monoterpene emissions, aiming to see the effect of the different climatic regimes at each location. Significantly higher emission rates of monoterpenes were observed in the wetter site during mid-day, in both the leaf scale and canopy scale measurements. Remarkably, however, normalized to 30C and corrected for tree density differences between the sites indicated comparable emission rates for both sites, with higher emission rated in the evening hours in the dry site at the edge of the Negev Desert. Modeling the monoterpene emission rates using MEGAN v2.1 indicated better agreement with observations in the wetter site then in the dry site, especially with respect to fluxes during the evening hours.

Bird assemblage response to restoration of fire-suppressed longleaf pine sandhills.

PubMed

Steen, David A; Conner, L M; Smith, Lora L; Provencher, Louis; Hiers, J Kevin; Pokswinski, Scott; Helms, Brian S; Guyer, Craig

2013-01-01

The ecological restoration of fire-suppressed habitats may require a multifaceted approach. Removal of hardwood trees together with reintroduction of fire has been suggested as a method of restoring fire-suppressed longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) forests; however, this strategy, although widespread, has not been evaluated on large spatial and temporal scales. We used a landscape-scale experimental design to examine how bird assemblages in fire-suppressed longleaf pine sandhills responded to fire alone or fire following mechanical removal or herbicide application to reduce hardwood levels. Individual treatments were compared to fire-suppressed controls and reference sites. After initial treatment, all sites were managed with prescribed fire, on an approximately two- to three-year interval, for over a decade. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordinations suggested that avian assemblages on sites that experienced any form of hardwood removal differed from assemblages on both fire-suppressed sites and reference sites 3-4 years after treatment (i.e., early posttreatment). After >10 years of prescribed burning on all sites (i.e., late posttreatment), only assemblages at sites treated with herbicide were indistinguishable from assemblages at reference sites. By the end of the study, individual species that were once indicators of reference sites no longer contributed to making reference sites unique. Occupancy modeling of these indicator species also demonstrated increasing similarity across treatments over time. Overall, although we documented long-term and variable assemblage-level change, our results indicate occupancy for birds considered longleaf pine specialists was similar at treatment and reference sites after over a decade of prescribed burning, regardless of initial method of hardwood removal. In other words, based on the response of species highly associated with the habitat, we found no justification for the added cost and effort of fire surrogates; fire alone was sufficient to restore these species.

Modeling subjective evaluation of soundscape quality in urban open spaces: An artificial neural network approach.

PubMed

Yu, Lei; Kang, Jian

2009-09-01

This research aims to explore the feasibility of using computer-based models to predict the soundscape quality evaluation of potential users in urban open spaces at the design stage. With the data from large scale field surveys in 19 urban open spaces across Europe and China, the importance of various physical, behavioral, social, demographical, and psychological factors for the soundscape evaluation has been statistically analyzed. Artificial neural network (ANN) models have then been explored at three levels. It has been shown that for both subjective sound level and acoustic comfort evaluation, a general model for all the case study sites is less feasible due to the complex physical and social environments in urban open spaces; models based on individual case study sites perform well but the application range is limited; and specific models for certain types of location/function would be reliable and practical. The performance of acoustic comfort models is considerably better than that of sound level models. Based on the ANN models, soundscape quality maps can be produced and this has been demonstrated with an example.

Critical scales to explain urban hydrological response: an application in Cranbrook, London

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristiano, Elena; ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Gaitan, Santiago; Ochoa Rodriguez, Susana; van de Giesen, Nick

2018-04-01

Rainfall variability in space and time, in relation to catchment characteristics and model complexity, plays an important role in explaining the sensitivity of hydrological response in urban areas. In this work we present a new approach to classify rainfall variability in space and time and we use this classification to investigate rainfall aggregation effects on urban hydrological response. Nine rainfall events, measured with a dual polarimetric X-Band radar instrument at the CAESAR site (Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research, NL), were aggregated in time and space in order to obtain different resolution combinations. The aim of this work was to investigate the influence that rainfall and catchment scales have on hydrological response in urban areas. Three dimensionless scaling factors were introduced to investigate the interactions between rainfall and catchment scale and rainfall input resolution in relation to the performance of the model. Results showed that (1) rainfall classification based on cluster identification well represents the storm core, (2) aggregation effects are stronger for rainfall than flow, (3) model complexity does not have a strong influence compared to catchment and rainfall scales for this case study, and (4) scaling factors allow the adequate rainfall resolution to be selected to obtain a given level of accuracy in the calculation of hydrological response.

Climate-driven uncertainties in modeling terrestrial gross primary production: a site level to global-scale analysis.

PubMed

Barman, Rahul; Jain, Atul K; Liang, Miaoling

2014-05-01

We used a land surface model to quantify the causes and extents of biases in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) due to the use of meteorological reanalysis datasets. We first calibrated the model using meteorology and eddy covariance data from 25 flux tower sites ranging from the tropics to the northern high latitudes and subsequently repeated the site simulations using two reanalysis datasets: NCEP/NCAR and CRUNCEP. The results show that at most sites, the reanalysis-driven GPP bias was significantly positive with respect to the observed meteorology-driven simulations. Notably, the absolute GPP bias was highest at the tropical evergreen tree sites, averaging up to ca. 0.45 kg C m(-2)  yr(-1) across sites (ca. 15% of site level GPP). At the northern mid-/high-latitude broadleaf deciduous and the needleleaf evergreen tree sites, the corresponding annual GPP biases were up to 20%. For the nontree sites, average annual biases of up to ca. 20-30% were simulated within savanna, grassland, and shrubland vegetation types. At the tree sites, the biases in short-wave radiation and humidity strongly influenced the GPP biases, while the nontree sites were more affected by biases in factors controlling water stress (precipitation, humidity, and air temperature). In this study, we also discuss the influence of seasonal patterns of meteorological biases on GPP. Finally, using model simulations for the global land surface, we discuss the potential impacts of site-level reanalysis-driven biases on the global estimates of GPP. In a broader context, our results can have important consequences on other terrestrial ecosystem fluxes (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem production, energy/water fluxes) and reservoirs (e.g., soil carbon stocks). In a complementary study (Barman et al., ), we extend the present analysis for latent and sensible heat fluxes, thus consistently integrating the analysis of climate-driven uncertainties in carbon, energy, and water fluxes using a single modeling framework. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Land Cover and Topography Affect the Land Transformation Caused by Wind Facilities

PubMed Central

Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Compton, Roger W.

2014-01-01

Land transformation (ha of surface disturbance/MW) associated with wind facilities shows wide variation in its reported values. In addition, no studies have attempted to explain the variation across facilities. We digitized land transformation at 39 wind facilities using high resolution aerial imagery. We then modeled the effects of turbine size, configuration, land cover, and topography on the levels of land transformation at three spatial scales. The scales included strings (turbines with intervening roads only), sites (strings with roads connecting them, buried cables and other infrastructure), and entire facilities (sites and the roads or transmission lines connecting them to existing infrastructure). An information theoretic modeling approach indicated land cover and topography were well-supported variables affecting land transformation, but not turbine size or configuration. Tilled landscapes, despite larger distances between turbines, had lower average land transformation, while facilities in forested landscapes generally had the highest land transformation. At site and string scales, flat topographies had the lowest land transformation, while facilities on mesas had the largest. The results indicate the landscape in which the facilities are placed affects the levels of land transformation associated with wind energy. This creates opportunities for optimizing wind energy production while minimizing land cover change. In addition, the results indicate forecasting the impacts of wind energy on land transformation should include the geographic variables affecting land transformation reported here. PMID:24558449

Land cover and topography affect the land transformation caused by wind facilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Compton, Roger W.

2014-01-01

Land transformation (ha of surface disturbance/MW) associated with wind facilities shows wide variation in its reported values. In addition, no studies have attempted to explain the variation across facilities. We digitized land transformation at 39 wind facilities using high resolution aerial imagery. We then modeled the effects of turbine size, configuration, land cover, and topography on the levels of land transformation at three spatial scales. The scales included strings (turbines with intervening roads only), sites (strings with roads connecting them, buried cables and other infrastructure), and entire facilities (sites and the roads or transmission lines connecting them to existing infrastructure). An information theoretic modeling approach indicated land cover and topography were well-supported variables affecting land transformation, but not turbine size or configuration. Tilled landscapes, despite larger distances between turbines, had lower average land transformation, while facilities in forested landscapes generally had the highest land transformation. At site and string scales, flat topographies had the lowest land transformation, while facilities on mesas had the largest. The results indicate the landscape in which the facilities are placed affects the levels of land transformation associated with wind energy. This creates opportunities for optimizing wind energy production while minimizing land cover change. In addition, the results indicate forecasting the impacts of wind energy on land transformation should include the geographic variables affecting land transformation reported here.

Evaluating the performance of different predictor strategies in regression-based downscaling with a focus on glacierized mountain environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofer, Marlis; Nemec, Johanna

2016-04-01

This study presents first steps towards verifying the hypothesis that uncertainty in global and regional glacier mass simulations can be reduced considerably by reducing the uncertainty in the high-resolution atmospheric input data. To this aim, we systematically explore the potential of different predictor strategies for improving the performance of regression-based downscaling approaches. The investigated local-scale target variables are precipitation, air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and global radiation, all at a daily time scale. Observations of these target variables are assessed from three sites in geo-environmentally and climatologically very distinct settings, all within highly complex topography and in the close proximity to mountain glaciers: (1) the Vernagtbach station in the Northern European Alps (VERNAGT), (2) the Artesonraju measuring site in the tropical South American Andes (ARTESON), and (3) the Brewster measuring site in the Southern Alps of New Zealand (BREWSTER). As the large-scale predictors, ERA interim reanalysis data are used. In the applied downscaling model training and evaluation procedures, particular emphasis is put on appropriately accounting for the pitfalls of limited and/or patchy observation records that are usually the only (if at all) available data from the glacierized mountain sites. Generalized linear models and beta regression are investigated as alternatives to ordinary least squares regression for the non-Gaussian target variables. By analyzing results for the three different sites, five predictands and for different times of the year, we look for systematic improvements in the downscaling models' skill specifically obtained by (i) using predictor data at the optimum scale rather than the minimum scale of the reanalysis data, (ii) identifying the optimum predictor allocation in the vertical, and (iii) considering multiple (variable, level and/or grid point) predictor options combined with state-of-art empirical feature selection tools. First results show that in particular for air temperature, those downscaling models based on direct predictor selection show comparative skill like those models based on multiple predictors. For all other target variables, however, multiple predictor approaches can considerably outperform those models based on single predictors. Including multiple variable types emerges as the most promising predictor option (in particular for wind speed at all sites), even if the same predictor set is used across the different cases.

Feeling powerless: Locus of control as a potential target for supportive care interventions to increase quality of life and decrease anxiety in ovarian cancer patients.

PubMed

Brown, Alaina J; Sun, Charlotte C; Urbauer, Diana L; Bodurka, Diane C; Thaker, Premal H; Ramondetta, Lois M

2015-08-01

To evaluate if an individual's locus of control (LOC) predicts various quality of life (QOL) and mental well-being measures. To identify targets that might enhance the overall spiritual well-being and QOL of ovarian cancer patients. Multi-site analysis of women with newly diagnosed stages II-IV ovarian, primary peritoneal or fallopian tube cancer. Patients completed the following surveys: Locus of Control Scale (LOC), Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Ovarian (FACT-O), Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Spiritual (FACIT-Sp), Edmonton Symptom Assessment score (ESAS), Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale (HADS), Templer's Death Anxiety Scale (DAS), and Herth Hope Index (HHI). Regression models were created to examine the effect of LOC upon QOL, symptoms, and other measures of mental well-being. These models adjusted for the effect of site of care, race, and partnership status as potential confounders. This study enrolled 104 patients from three separate treatment facilities. After adjusting for site, race and partnership status, higher levels of external LOC predicted decreased QOL (FACT-O) (p<0.05). Higher levels of external LOC also correlated with increased death anxiety and general anxiety (p≤0.05). Additionally, higher levels of external LOC predicted decreased hope (HHI) (p≤0.01). Ovarian cancer patients with a high external LOC may be at risk for decreased QOL at the time of their cancer diagnosis. They may also experience higher levels of anxiety and decreased feelings of hope. Identification of these women and interventions designed to increase a woman's sense of control over her situation may improve QOL and overall mental well-being. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

USE OF ELECTRICAL RESISTIVITY PROBE WITH MODFLOW FOR SCREENING LEVEL DETERMINATION OF PARAFLUVIAL HYPORHEIC FLOW

EPA Science Inventory

The hyporheic zone can provide significant nutrient attenuation in watersheds. Conceptual models describe the behavior of nutrients and biota for the hyporheic ecotone, but site characterization is needed to quantify these effects at the restoration reach scale (hundreds of meter...

Reconstruction of Local Sea Levels at South West Pacific Islands—A Multiple Linear Regression Approach (1988-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, V.; Melet, A.; Meyssignac, B.; Ganachaud, A.; Kessler, W. S.; Singh, A.; Aucan, J.

2018-02-01

Rising sea levels are a critical concern in small island nations. The problem is especially serious in the western south Pacific, where the total sea level rise over the last 60 years has been up to 3 times the global average. In this study, we aim at reconstructing sea levels at selected sites in the region (Suva, Lautoka—Fiji, and Nouméa—New Caledonia) as a multilinear regression (MLR) of atmospheric and oceanic variables. We focus on sea level variability at interannual-to-interdecadal time scales, and trend over the 1988-2014 period. Local sea levels are first expressed as a sum of steric and mass changes. Then a dynamical approach is used based on wind stress curl as a proxy for the thermosteric component, as wind stress curl anomalies can modulate the thermocline depth and resultant sea levels via Rossby wave propagation. Statistically significant predictors among wind stress curl, halosteric sea level, zonal/meridional wind stress components, and sea surface temperature are used to construct a MLR model simulating local sea levels. Although we are focusing on the local scale, the global mean sea level needs to be adjusted for. Our reconstructions provide insights on key drivers of sea level variability at the selected sites, showing that while local dynamics and the global signal modulate sea level to a given extent, most of the variance is driven by regional factors. On average, the MLR model is able to reproduce 82% of the variance in island sea level, and could be used to derive local sea level projections via downscaling of climate models.

A Hybrid Coarse-graining Approach for Lipid Bilayers at Large Length and Time Scales

PubMed Central

Ayton, Gary S.; Voth, Gregory A.

2009-01-01

A hybrid analytic-systematic (HAS) coarse-grained (CG) lipid model is developed and employed in a large-scale simulation of a liposome. The methodology is termed hybrid analyticsystematic as one component of the interaction between CG sites is variationally determined from the multiscale coarse-graining (MS-CG) methodology, while the remaining component utilizes an analytic potential. The systematic component models the in-plane center of mass interaction of the lipids as determined from an atomistic-level MD simulation of a bilayer. The analytic component is based on the well known Gay-Berne ellipsoid of revolution liquid crystal model, and is designed to model the highly anisotropic interactions at a highly coarse-grained level. The HAS CG approach is the first step in an “aggressive” CG methodology designed to model multi-component biological membranes at very large length and timescales. PMID:19281167

D Reconstruction and Visualization of Cultural Heritage: Analyzing Our Legacy Through Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Gonzálvez, P.; Muñoz-Nieto, A. L.; del Pozo, S.; Sanchez-Aparicio, L. J.; Gonzalez-Aguilera, D.; Micoli, L.; Gonizzi Barsanti, S.; Guidi, G.; Mills, J.; Fieber, K.; Haynes, I.; Hejmanowska, B.

2017-02-01

Temporal analyses and multi-temporal 3D reconstruction are fundamental for the preservation and maintenance of all forms of Cultural Heritage (CH) and are the basis for decisions related to interventions and promotion. Introducing the fourth dimension of time into three-dimensional geometric modelling of real data allows the creation of a multi-temporal representation of a site. In this way, scholars from various disciplines (surveyors, geologists, archaeologists, architects, philologists, etc.) are provided with a new set of tools and working methods to support the study of the evolution of heritage sites, both to develop hypotheses about the past and to model likely future developments. The capacity to "see" the dynamic evolution of CH assets across different spatial scales (e.g. building, site, city or territory) compressed in diachronic model, affords the possibility to better understand the present status of CH according to its history. However, there are numerous challenges in order to carry out 4D modelling and the requisite multi-data source integration. It is necessary to identify the specifications, needs and requirements of the CH community to understand the required levels of 4D model information. In this way, it is possible to determine the optimum material and technologies to be utilised at different CH scales, as well as the data management and visualization requirements. This manuscript aims to provide a comprehensive approach for CH time-varying representations, analysis and visualization across different working scales and environments: rural landscape, urban landscape and architectural scales. Within this aim, the different available metric data sources are systemized and evaluated in terms of their suitability.

THM large spatial-temporal model to simulate the past 2 Ma hydrogeological evolution of Paris Basin including natural tracer transport as part of site characterization for radwaste repository project Cigéo - France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benabderrahmane, A., Sr.

2017-12-01

Hydrogeological site characterization for deep geological high level and intermediate level long lived radioactive waste repository cover a large time scale needed for safety analysis and calculation. Hydrogeological performance of a site relies also on the effects of geodynamic evolution as tectonic uplift, erosion/sedimentation and climate including glaciation on the groundwater flow and solute and heat transfer. Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical model of multilayered aquifer system of Paris Basin is developed to reproduce the present time flow and the natural tracer (Helium) concentration profiles based on the last 2 Ma of geodynamic evolution. Present time geological conceptual model consist of 27 layers at Paris Basin (Triassic-Tertiary) with refinement at project site scale (29 layers from Triassic to Portlandian). Target layers are the clay host formation of Callovo-Oxfrodian age (160 Ma) and the surrounding aquifer layers of Oxfordian and Dogger. Modelled processes are: groundwater flow, heat and solutes (natural tracers) transport, freezing and thawing of groundwater (expansion and retreat of permafrost), deformation of the multilayered aquifer system induced by differential tectonic uplift and the hydro-mechanical stress effect as caused by erosion of the outcropping layers. Numerical simulation considers a period from 2 Ma BP and up to the present. Transient boundary conditions are governed by geodynamic processes: (i) modification of the geometry of the basin and (ii) temperatures along the topography will change according to a series of 15 identical climate cycles with multiple permafrost (glaciation) periods. Numerical model contains 71 layers and 18 million cells. The solution procedure solves three coupled systems of equations, head, temperature and concentrations, by the use of a finite difference method, and by applying extensive parallel processing. The major modelling results related to the processes of importance for site characterization as hydraulic head distribution, flow velocity, heat and natural tracer transport impacted by geodynamic past evolution are discussed.

The hydrological cycle at European Fluxnet sites: modeling seasonal water and energy budgets at local scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockli, R.; Vidale, P. L.

2003-04-01

The importance of correctly including land surface processes in climate models has been increasingly recognized in the past years. Even on seasonal to interannual time scales land surface - atmosphere feedbacks can play a substantial role in determining the state of the near-surface climate. The availability of soil moisture for both runoff and evapotranspiration is dependent on biophysical processes occuring in plants and in the soil acting on a wide time-scale from minutes to years. Fluxnet site measurements in various climatic zones are used to drive three generations of LSM's (land surface models) in order to assess the level of complexity needed to represent vegetation processes at the local scale. The three models were the Bucket model (Manabe 1969), BATS 1E (Dickinson 1984) and SiB 2 (Sellers et al. 1996). Evapotranspiration and runoff processes simulated by these models range from simple one-layer soils and no-vegetation parameterizations to complex multilayer soils, including realistic photosynthesis-stomatal conductance models. The latter is driven by satellite remote sensing land surface parameters inheriting the spatiotemporal evolution of vegetation phenology. In addition a simulation with SiB 2 not only including vertical water fluxes but also lateral soil moisture transfers by downslope flow is conducted for a pre-alpine catchment in Switzerland. Preliminary results are presented and show that - depending on the climatic environment and on the season - a realistic representation of evapotranspiration processes including seasonally and interannually-varying state of vegetation is significantly improving the representation of observed latent and sensible heat fluxes on the local scale. Moreover, the interannual evolution of soil moisture availability and runoff is strongly dependent on the chosen model complexity. Biophysical land surface parameters from satellite allow to represent the seasonal changes in vegetation activity, which has great impact on the yearly budget of transpiration fluxes. For some sites, however, the hydrological cycle is simulated reasonably well even with simple land surface representations.

A multi-scale comparison of modeled and observed seasonal methane emissions in northern wetlands

DOE PAGES

Xu, Xiyan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.; ...

2016-09-13

Wetlands are the largest global natural methane (CH 4) source, and emissions between 50 and 70° N latitude contribute 10-30 % to this source. Predictive capability of land models for northern wetland CH 4 emissions is still low due to limited site measurements, strong spatial and temporal variability in emissions, and complex hydrological and biogeochemical dynamics. To explore this issue, we compare wetland CH 4 emission predictions from the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM4.5-BGC) with site- to regional-scale observations. A comparison of the CH 4 fluxes with eddy flux data highlighted needed changes to the model's estimate of aerenchyma area,more » which we implemented and tested. The model modification substantially reduced biases in CH 4 emissions when compared with CarbonTracker CH 4 predictions. CLM4.5 CH 4 emission predictions agree well with growing season (May–September) CarbonTracker Alaskan regional-level CH 4 predictions and site-level observations. However, CLM4.5 underestimated CH 4 emissions in the cold season (October–April). The monthly atmospheric CH 4 mole fraction enhancements due to wetland emissions are also assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (WRF-STILT) model coupled with daily emissions from CLM4.5 and compared with aircraft CH 4 mole fraction measurements from the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) campaign. Both the tower and aircraft analyses confirm the underestimate of cold-season CH 4 emissions by CLM4.5. The greatest uncertainties in predicting the seasonal CH 4 cycle are from the wetland extent, cold-season CH 4 production and CH 4 transport processes. We recommend more cold-season experimental studies in high-latitude systems, which could improve the understanding and parameterization of ecosystem structure and function during this period. Predicted CH 4 emissions remain uncertain, but we show here that benchmarking against observations across spatial scales can inform model structural and parameter improvements.« less

A multi-scale comparison of modeled and observed seasonal methane emissions in northern wetlands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Xiyan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.

Wetlands are the largest global natural methane (CH 4) source, and emissions between 50 and 70° N latitude contribute 10-30 % to this source. Predictive capability of land models for northern wetland CH 4 emissions is still low due to limited site measurements, strong spatial and temporal variability in emissions, and complex hydrological and biogeochemical dynamics. To explore this issue, we compare wetland CH 4 emission predictions from the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM4.5-BGC) with site- to regional-scale observations. A comparison of the CH 4 fluxes with eddy flux data highlighted needed changes to the model's estimate of aerenchyma area,more » which we implemented and tested. The model modification substantially reduced biases in CH 4 emissions when compared with CarbonTracker CH 4 predictions. CLM4.5 CH 4 emission predictions agree well with growing season (May–September) CarbonTracker Alaskan regional-level CH 4 predictions and site-level observations. However, CLM4.5 underestimated CH 4 emissions in the cold season (October–April). The monthly atmospheric CH 4 mole fraction enhancements due to wetland emissions are also assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (WRF-STILT) model coupled with daily emissions from CLM4.5 and compared with aircraft CH 4 mole fraction measurements from the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) campaign. Both the tower and aircraft analyses confirm the underestimate of cold-season CH 4 emissions by CLM4.5. The greatest uncertainties in predicting the seasonal CH 4 cycle are from the wetland extent, cold-season CH 4 production and CH 4 transport processes. We recommend more cold-season experimental studies in high-latitude systems, which could improve the understanding and parameterization of ecosystem structure and function during this period. Predicted CH 4 emissions remain uncertain, but we show here that benchmarking against observations across spatial scales can inform model structural and parameter improvements.« less

The influence of model grid resolution on estimation of national scale nitrogen deposition and exceedance of critical levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dore, A. J.; Kryza, M.; Hall, J. R.; Hallsworth, S.; Keller, V. J. D.; Vieno, M.; Sutton, M. A.

2011-12-01

The Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange model (FRAME) has been applied to model the spatial distribution of nitrogen deposition and air concentration over the UK at a 1 km spatial resolution. The modelled deposition and concentration data were gridded at resolutions of 1 km, 5 km and 50 km to test the sensitivity of calculations of the exceedance of critical loads for nitrogen deposition to the deposition data resolution. The modelled concentrations of NO2 were validated by comparison with measurements from the rural sites in the national monitoring network and were found to achieve better agreement with the high resolution 1 km data. High resolution plots were found to represent a more physically realistic distribution of nitrogen air concentrations and deposition resulting from use of 1 km resolution precipitation and emissions data as compared to 5 km resolution data. Summary statistics for national scale exceedance of the critical load for nitrogen deposition were not highly sensitive to the grid resolution of the deposition data but did show greater area exceedance with coarser grid resolution due to spatial averaging of high nitrogen deposition hot spots. Local scale deposition at individual Sites of Special Scientific Interest and high precipitation upland sites was sensitive to choice of grid resolution of deposition data. Use of high resolution data tended to generate lower deposition values in sink areas for nitrogen dry deposition (Sites of Scientific Interest) and higher values in high precipitation upland areas. In areas with generally low exceedance (Scotland) and for certain vegetation types (montane), the exceedance statistics were more sensitive to model data resolution.

Analytical study of nano-scale logical operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, Moumita; Maiti, Santanu K.

2018-07-01

A complete analytical prescription is given to perform three basic (OR, AND, NOT) and two universal (NAND, NOR) logic gates at nano-scale level using simple tailor made geometries. Two different geometries, ring-like and chain-like, are taken into account where in each case the bridging conductor is coupled to a local atomic site through a dangling bond whose site energy can be controlled by means of external gate electrode. The main idea is that when injecting electron energy matches with site energy of local atomic site transmission probability drops exactly to zero, whereas the junction exhibits finite transmission for other energies. Utilizing this prescription we perform logical operations, and, we strongly believe that the proposed results can be verified in laboratory. Finally, we numerically compute two-terminal transmission probability considering general models and the numerical results match exactly well with our analytical findings.

Post Audit of a Field Scale Reactive Transport Model of Uranium at a Former Mill Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curtis, G. P.

2015-12-01

Reactive transport of hexavalent uranium (U(VI)) in a shallow alluvial aquifer at a former uranium mill tailings site near Naturita CO has been monitored for nearly 30 years by the US Department of Energy and the US Geological Survey. Groundwater at the site has high concentrations of chloride, alkalinity and U(VI) as a owing to ore processing at the site from 1941 to 1974. We previously calibrated a multicomponent reactive transport model to data collected at the site from 1986 to 2001. A two dimensional nonreactive transport model used a uniform hydraulic conductivity which was estimated from observed chloride concentrations and tritium helium age dates. A reactive transport model for the 2km long site was developed by including an equilibrium U(VI) surface complexation model calibrated to laboratory data and calcite equilibrium. The calibrated model reproduced both nonreactive tracers as well as the observed U(VI), pH and alkalinity. Forward simulations for the period 2002-2015 conducted with the calibrated model predict significantly faster natural attenuation of U(VI) concentrations than has been observed by the persistent high U(VI) concentrations at the site. Alternative modeling approaches are being evaluating evaluated using recent data to determine if the persistence can be explained by multirate mass transfer models developed from experimental observations at the column scale(~0.2m), the laboratory tank scale (~2m), the field tracer test scale (~1-4m) or geophysical observation scale (~1-5m). Results of this comparison should provide insight into the persistence of U(VI) plumes and improved management options.

Quantifying the effects of mountain pine beetle infestation on water and biogeochemical cycles at multiple spatial and temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, P. D.; Harpold, A. A.; Somor, A. J.; Troch, P. A.; Gochis, D. J.; Ewers, B. E.; Pendall, E.; Biederman, J. A.; Reed, D.; Barnard, H. R.; Whitehouse, F.; Aston, T.; Borkhuu, B.

2010-12-01

Unprecedented levels of bark beetle infestation over the last decade have radically altered forest structure across millions of hectares of Western U.S. montane environments. The widespread extent of this disturbance presents a major challenge for governments and resource managers who lack a predictive understanding of how water and biogeochemical cycles will respond to this disturbance over various temporal and spatial scales. There is a widespread perception, largely based on hydrological responses to fire or logging, that a reduction in both transpiration and interception following tree death will increase soil water availability and catchment water yield. However, few studies have directly addressed the effects of insect-induced forest decline on water and biogeochemical cycling. We address this knowledge gap using observations and modeling at scales from 100 to 109 m2 across study sites in CO and WY that vary in the intensity and timing of beetle infestation and tree death. Our focus on multiple sites with different levels of impact allows us to address two broad, organizing questions: How do changes in vegetation structure associated with MPB alter the partitioning of energy and water? And How do these changes in energy and water availability affect local to regional scale water and biogeochemical cycles? This presentation will focus primarily on energy balance and water partitioning, providing context for ongoing biogeochemical work. During the growing season, stand-scale transpiration declines rapidly and soil moisture increases following infestation, consistent with streamflow data from regional catchments that shows an increase in baseflow following widespread attack. During the winter and spring, stand scale snow surveys and continuous snow depth sensors suggested that the variability in snow cover decreased as the severity of beetle impact increases, but there were no significant stand-scale differences in snow depth among levels of impact. This is due both to an increase in snow under the canopies of dead trees and a decrease in snow cover in canopy gaps. For example, mean snow depth under the canopy was 86cm (CV 0.02) in unimpacted sites and 95cm (CV 0.05) in heavily impacted sites. In canopy gaps however, mean snow depth was 117cm (CV 0.11) in unimpacted sites but only 93cm (CV 0.07) in heavily impacted sites. At the watershed scale, bark beetle infestation was more likely to decrease the amount of both snowmelt and annual runoff, suggesting that the opening of the canopy increases sublimation and evaporation of the snow cover. These data suggest that the disturbance due to bark beetle infestation is both quantitatively and qualitatively different than either fire or logging. Using these observations, we develop a conceptual model for evaluating how biotic and abiotic processes couple water and biogeochemical cycles in forest ecosystems.

Innovative Field Methods for Characterizing the Hydraulic Properties of a Complex Fractured Rock Aquifer (Ploemeur, Brittany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bour, O.; Le Borgne, T.; Longuevergne, L.; Lavenant, N.; Jimenez-Martinez, J.; De Dreuzy, J. R.; Schuite, J.; Boudin, F.; Labasque, T.; Aquilina, L.

2014-12-01

Characterizing the hydraulic properties of heterogeneous and complex aquifers often requires field scale investigations at multiple space and time scales to better constrain hydraulic property estimates. Here, we present and discuss results from the site of Ploemeur (Brittany, France) where complementary hydrological and geophysical approaches have been combined to characterize the hydrogeological functioning of this highly fractured crystalline rock aquifer. In particular, we show how cross-borehole flowmeter tests, pumping tests and frequency domain analysis of groundwater levels allow quantifying the hydraulic properties of the aquifer at different scales. In complement, we used groundwater temperature as an excellent tracer for characterizing groundwater flow. At the site scale, measurements of ground surface deformation through long-base tiltmeters provide robust estimates of aquifer storage and allow identifying the active structures where groundwater pressure changes occur, including those acting during recharge process. Finally, a numerical model of the site that combines hydraulic data and groundwater ages confirms the geometry of this complex aquifer and the consistency of the different datasets. The Ploemeur site, which has been used for water supply at a rate of about 106 m3 per year since 1991, belongs to the French network of hydrogeological sites H+ and is currently used for monitoring groundwater changes and testing innovative field methods.

Allometric Scaling and Resource Limitations Model of Total Aboveground Biomass in Forest Stands: Site-scale Test of Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

CHOI, S.; Shi, Y.; Ni, X.; Simard, M.; Myneni, R. B.

2013-12-01

Sparseness in in-situ observations has precluded the spatially explicit and accurate mapping of forest biomass. The need for large-scale maps has raised various approaches implementing conjugations between forest biomass and geospatial predictors such as climate, forest type, soil property, and topography. Despite the improved modeling techniques (e.g., machine learning and spatial statistics), a common limitation is that biophysical mechanisms governing tree growth are neglected in these black-box type models. The absence of a priori knowledge may lead to false interpretation of modeled results or unexplainable shifts in outputs due to the inconsistent training samples or study sites. Here, we present a gray-box approach combining known biophysical processes and geospatial predictors through parametric optimizations (inversion of reference measures). Total aboveground biomass in forest stands is estimated by incorporating the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Two main premises of this research are: (a) The Allometric Scaling and Resource Limitations (ASRL) theory can provide a relationship between tree geometry and local resource availability constrained by environmental conditions; and (b) The zeroth order theory (size-frequency distribution) can expand individual tree allometry into total aboveground biomass at the forest stand level. In addition to the FIA estimates, two reference maps from the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD) and U.S. Forest Service (USFS) were produced to evaluate the model. This research focuses on a site-scale test of the biomass model to explore the robustness of predictors, and to potentially improve models using additional geospatial predictors such as climatic variables, vegetation indices, soil properties, and lidar-/radar-derived altimetry products (or existing forest canopy height maps). As results, the optimized ASRL estimates satisfactorily resemble the FIA aboveground biomass in terms of data distribution, overall agreement, and spatial similarity across scales. Uncertainties are quantified (ranged from 0.2 to 0.4) by taking into account the spatial mismatch (FIA plot vs. PRISM grid), heterogeneity (species composition), and an example bias scenario (= 0.2) in the root system extents.

Spatial and temporal variability of PM levels and composition in a complex summer atmospheric scenario in Barcelona (NE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viana, M.; Pérez, C.; Querol, X.; Alastuey, A.; Nickovic, S.; Baldasano, J. M.

Summer atmospheric coastal dynamics exert a significant influence on the levels and composition of atmospheric particulate matter (PM) in the North-Eastern Iberian Peninsula. Summer atmospheric scenarios in this region present a high degree of complexity as they are characterised by the absence of synoptic-scale air mass advections, the development of breeze circulations, enhanced photochemistry, local mineral dust re-suspension and the occurrence of African dust outbreaks. Three sampling sites were selected in Barcelona (NE Spain), an urban coastal site surrounded by complex topography. Regional dust modelling (DREAM) and high resolution meteorological modelling (MM5) were used to interpret PM levels and composition at the three sites. The results outline the effect of breeze dynamics and thermal internal boundary layer formation as the main meteorological drivers of the hourly evolution of PM levels. Levels of crustal components, secondary inorganic and carbon species are higher during the night, and only the marine aerosol content is higher during the day. Nitrate levels are higher during the night due to the thermal stability on NH 4NO 3. Sulphate levels are higher during the night as a consequence of the drainage flows. Lidar measurements and model results signalled the occurrence of two African dust episodes during the study period which mainly affected the free troposphere over Barcelona.

Drivers of spatial heterogeneity in nitrogen processing among three alpine plant communities in the Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churchill, A. C.; Beers, A.; Grinath, J.; Bowman, W. D.

2017-12-01

Nitrogen cycling across the globe has been fundamentally altered due to regional elevated N deposition and there is a cascade of ecosystem consequences including shifts in species composition, eutrophication, and soil acidification. Making predictions that encompass the factors that drive these ecosystem changes has frequently been limited to single ecosystem types, or areas with fairly homogenous abiotic conditions. The alpine is an ecosystem type that exhibits changes under relatively low levels of N depositions due to short growing seasons and shallow soils limiting N storage. While recent work provided estimates for the magnitude of N associated with ecosystem changes, less is known about the within-site factors that may interact to stabilize or amplify the differential response of N pools under future conditions of resource deposition. To examine numerous potential within-site and regional factors (both biotic and abiotic) affecting ecosystem N pools we examined the relationship between those factors and a suite of ecosystem pools of N followed by model selection procedures and structural equation modelling. Measurements were conducted at Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research site and in Rocky Mountain National Park in three distinct alpine meadow ecosystems (dry, moist, and wet meadows). These meadows span a moisture gradient as well as plant community composition, thereby providing high variability of potential biotic and abiotic drivers across small spatial scales in the alpine. In general, regional scale abiotic factors such as site levels of annual average N deposition or precipitation were poor predictors of seasonal pools of N, while spring soil water pools of N were negatively correlated with elevation. Models containing multiple abiotic and biotic drivers, however, were best at predicting soil and plant pools of N across the two sites. Future analysis will include highlight interactions among with-site factors affecting N pools in the alpine using structural equation modelling to statistically examine the bidirectional relationship between plant communities and soil pools of N.

Photoperiodic controls on ecosystem-level photosynthetic capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoy, P. C.; Trowbridge, A. M.; Bauerle, W.

2012-12-01

Most models of photosynthesis at the leaf or canopy level assume that temperature is the dominant control on the variability of photosynthetic parameters. Recent studies, however, have found that photoperiod is a better descriptor of the seasonal variability of photosynthetic function at the leaf and plant scale, and that spectral indices of leaf functionality are poor descriptors of this seasonality. We explored the variability of photosynthesic parameters at the ecosystem scale using over 100 site-years of air temperature and gross primary productivity (GPP) data from non-tropical forested sites in the Free/Fair Use LaThuille FLUXNET database (www.fluxdata.org), excluding sites that were classified as dry and/or with savanna vegetation, where we expected GPP to be driven by moisture availability. Both GPP and GPP normalized by daily photosynthetic photon flux density (GPPn) were considered, and photoperiod was calculated from eddy covariance tower coordinates. We performed a Granger causality analysis, a method based on the understanding that causes precede effects, on both the GPP and GPPn. Photoperiod Granger-caused GPP (GPPn) in 95% (87%) of all site-years. While temperature Granger-caused GPP in a mere 23% of site years, it Granger-caused GPPn 73% of the time. Both temperature values are significantly less than the percent of cases in which day length Granger-caused GPP (p<0.05, Student's t-test). An inverse analysis was performed for completeness, and it was found that GPP Granger-caused photoperiod (temperature) in 39% (78%) of all site years. Results demonstrate that incorporating simple photoperiod controls may be a logical step in improving ecosystem and global model output.

A simplified gross primary production and evapotranspiration model for boreal coniferous forests - is a generic calibration sufficient?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minunno, F.; Peltoniemi, M.; Launiainen, S.; Aurela, M.; Lindroth, A.; Lohila, A.; Mammarella, I.; Minkkinen, K.; Mäkelä, A.

2015-07-01

The problem of model complexity has been lively debated in environmental sciences as well as in the forest modelling community. Simple models are less input demanding and their calibration involves a lower number of parameters, but they might be suitable only at local scale. In this work we calibrated a simplified ecosystem process model (PRELES) to data from multiple sites and we tested if PRELES can be used at regional scale to estimate the carbon and water fluxes of Boreal conifer forests. We compared a multi-site (M-S) with site-specific (S-S) calibrations. Model calibrations and evaluations were carried out by the means of the Bayesian method; Bayesian calibration (BC) and Bayesian model comparison (BMC) were used to quantify the uncertainty in model parameters and model structure. To evaluate model performances BMC results were combined with more classical analysis of model-data mismatch (M-DM). Evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) measurements collected in 10 sites of Finland and Sweden were used in the study. Calibration results showed that similar estimates were obtained for the parameters at which model outputs are most sensitive. No significant differences were encountered in the predictions of the multi-site and site-specific versions of PRELES with exception of a site with agricultural history (Alkkia). Although PRELES predicted GPP better than evapotranspiration, we concluded that the model can be reliably used at regional scale to simulate carbon and water fluxes of Boreal forests. Our analyses underlined also the importance of using long and carefully collected flux datasets in model calibration. In fact, even a single site can provide model calibrations that can be applied at a wider spatial scale, since it covers a wide range of variability in climatic conditions.

Scaling of Sediment Dynamics in a Reach-Scale Laboratory Model of a Sand-Bed Stream with Riparian Vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorrick, S.; Rodriguez, J. F.

2011-12-01

A movable bed physical model was designed in a laboratory flume to simulate both bed and suspended load transport in a mildly sinuous sand-bed stream. Model simulations investigated the impact of different vegetation arrangements along the outer bank to evaluate rehabilitation options. Preserving similitude in the 1:16 laboratory model was very important. In this presentation the scaling approach, as well as the successes and challenges of the strategy are outlined. Firstly a near-bankfull flow event was chosen for laboratory simulation. In nature, bankfull events at the field site deposit new in-channel features but cause only small amounts of bank erosion. Thus the fixed banks in the model were not a drastic simplification. Next, and as in other studies, the flow velocity and turbulence measurements were collected in separate fixed bed experiments. The scaling of flow in these experiments was simply maintained by matching the Froude number and roughness levels. The subsequent movable bed experiments were then conducted under similar hydrodynamic conditions. In nature, the sand-bed stream is fairly typical; in high flows most sediment transport occurs in suspension and migrating dunes cover the bed. To achieve similar dynamics in the model equivalent values of the dimensionless bed shear stress and the particle Reynolds number were important. Close values of the two dimensionless numbers were achieved with lightweight sediments (R=0.3) including coal and apricot pips with a particle size distribution similar to that of the field site. Overall the moveable bed experiments were able to replicate the dominant sediment dynamics present in the stream during a bankfull flow and yielded relevant information for the analysis of the effects of riparian vegetation. There was a potential conflict in the strategy, in that grain roughness was exaggerated with respect to nature. The advantage of this strategy is that although grain roughness is exaggerated, the similarity of bedforms and resulting drag can return similar levels of roughness to those in the field site.

GPP/RE Partitioning of Long-term Network Flux Data as a Tool for Estimating Ecosystem-scale Ecophysiological Parameters of Grasslands and Croplands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmanov, T. G.; Wylie, B. K.; Gu, Y.; Howard, D. M.; Zhang, L.

2013-12-01

The physiologically based model of canopy CO2 exchange by Thornly and Johnson (2000) modified to incorporate vapor pressure deficit (VPD) limitation of photosynthesis is a robust tool for partitioning tower network net CO2 exchange data into gross photosynthesis (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) (Gilmanov et al. 2013a, b). In addition to 30-min and daily photosynthesis and respiration values, the procedure generates daily estimates and uncertainties of essential ecosystem-scale parameters such as apparent quantum yield ALPHA, photosynthetic capacity AMAX, convexity of light response THETA, gross ecological light-use efficiency LUE, daytime ecosystem respiration rate RDAY, and nighttime ecosystem respiration rate RNIGHT. These ecosystem-scale parameters are highly demanded by the modeling community and open opportunities for comparison with the rich data of leaf-level estimates of corresponding parameters available from physiological studies of previous decades. Based on the data for 70+ site-years of flux tower measurements at the non-forest sites of the Ameriflux network and the non-affiliated sites, we present results of the comparative analysis and multi-site synthesis of the magnitudes, uncertainties, patterns of seasonal and yearly dynamics, and spatiotemporal distribution of these parameters for grasslands and croplands of the conterminous United States (CONUS). Combining this site-level parameter data set with the rich spatiotemporal data sets of a remotely sensed vegetation index, weather and climate conditions, and site biophysical and geophysical features (phenology, photosynthetically active radiation, and soil water holding capacity) using methods of multivariate analysis (e.g., Cubist regression tree) offers new opportunities for predictive modeling and scaling-up of ecosystem-scale parameters of carbon cycling in grassland and agricultural ecosystems of CONUS (Zhang et al. 2011; Gu et al. 2012). REFERENCES Gilmanov TG, Baker JM, Bernacchi CJ, Billesbach DP, Burba GG, et al. (2013a). Productivity and CO2 exchange of the leguminous crops: Estimates from flux tower measurements. Agronomy J (submitted). Gilmanov TG, Wylie BK, Tieszen LL, Meyers TP, Baron VS, et al. (2013b). CO2 uptake and ecophysiological parameters of the grain crops of midcontinent North America: Estimates from flux tower measurements. Agric Ecosyst Environm 164: 162-175 Gu Y, Howard DM, Wylie BK, and Zhang L (2012). Mapping carbon flux uncertainty and selecting optimal locations for future flux towers in the Great Plains: Landscape Ecology, 27: 319-326. Thornley JHM., Johnson IR (2000). Plant and crop modelling. A mathematical approach to plant and crop physiology. The Blackburn Press, Caldwell, New Jersey. Zhang L, Wylie BK, Ji L, Gilmanov TG, Tieszen LL, Howard DM (2011). Upscaling carbon fluxes over the Great Plains grasslands: Sinks and sources. J Geophys Res G: Biogeosciences 116: G00J3

Estimating recharge at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA: Comparison of methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, A.L.; Flint, L.E.; Kwicklis, E.M.; Fabryka-Martin, J. T.; Bodvarsson, G.S.

2002-01-01

Obtaining values of net infiltration, groundwater travel time, and recharge is necessary at the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada, USA, in order to evaluate the expected performance of a potential repository as a containment system for high-level radioactive waste. However, the geologic complexities of this site, its low precipitation and net infiltration, with numerous mechanisms operating simultaneously to move water through the system, provide many challenges for the estimation of the spatial distribution of recharge. A variety of methods appropriate for arid environments has been applied, including water-balance techniques, calculations using Darcy's law in the unsaturated zone, a soil-physics method applied to neutron-hole water-content data, inverse modeling of thermal profiles in boreholes extending through the thick unsaturated zone, chloride mass balance, atmospheric radionuclides, and empirical approaches. These methods indicate that near-surface infiltration rates at Yucca Mountain are highly variable in time and space, with local (point) values ranging from zero to several hundred millimeters per year. Spatially distributed net-infiltration values average 5 mm/year, with the highest values approaching 20 mm/year near Yucca Crest. Site-scale recharge estimates range from less than 1 to about 12 mm/year. These results have been incorporated into a site-scale model that has been calibrated using these data sets that reflect infiltration processes acting on highly variable temporal and spatial scales. The modeling study predicts highly non-uniform recharge at the water table, distributed significantly differently from the non-uniform infiltration pattern at the surface.

Spectral damping scaling factors for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rezaeian, Sanaz; Bozorgnia, Yousef; Idriss, I.M.; Campbell, Kenneth; Abrahamson, Norman; Silva, Walter

2012-01-01

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for elastic response spectra, including the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models, are typically developed at a 5% viscous damping ratio. In reality, however, structural and non-structural systems can have damping ratios other than 5%, depending on various factors such as structural types, construction materials, level of ground motion excitations, among others. This report provides the findings of a comprehensive study to develop a new model for a Damping Scaling Factor (DSF) that can be used to adjust the 5% damped spectral ordinates predicted by a GMPE to spectral ordinates with damping ratios between 0.5 to 30%. Using the updated, 2011 version of the NGA database of ground motions recorded in worldwide shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions (i.e., the NGA-West2 database), dependencies of the DSF on variables including damping ratio, spectral period, moment magnitude, source-to-site distance, duration, and local site conditions are examined. The strong influence of duration is captured by inclusion of both magnitude and distance in the DSF model. Site conditions are found to have less significant influence on DSF and are not included in the model. The proposed model for DSF provides functional forms for the median value and the logarithmic standard deviation of DSF. This model is heteroscedastic, where the variance is a function of the damping ratio. Damping Scaling Factor models are developed for the “average” horizontal ground motion components, i.e., RotD50 and GMRotI50, as well as the vertical component of ground motion.

One way coupling of CMAQ and a road source dispersion model for fine scale air pollution predictions

PubMed Central

Beevers, Sean D.; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Williams, Martin L.; Carslaw, David C.

2012-01-01

In this paper we have coupled the CMAQ and ADMS air quality models to predict hourly concentrations of NOX, NO2 and O3 for London at a spatial scale of 20 m × 20 m. Model evaluation has demonstrated reasonable agreement with measurements from 80 monitoring sites in London. For NO2 the model evaluation statistics gave 73% of the hourly concentrations within a factor of two of observations, a mean bias of −4.7 ppb and normalised mean bias of −0.17, a RMSE value of 17.7 and an r value of 0.58. The equivalent results for O3 were 61% (FAC2), 2.8 ppb (MB), 0.15 (NMB), 12.1 (RMSE) and 0.64 (r). Analysis of the errors in the model predictions by hour of the week showed the need for improvements in predicting the magnitude of road transport related NOX emissions as well as the hourly emissions scaling in the model. These findings are consistent with recent evidence of UK road transport NOX emissions, reported elsewhere. The predictions of wind speed using the WRF model also influenced the model results and contributed to the daytime over prediction of NOX concentrations at the central London background site at Kensington and Chelsea. An investigation of the use of a simple NO–NO2–O3 chemistry scheme showed good performance close to road sources, and this is also consistent with previous studies. The coupling of the two models raises an issue of emissions double counting. Here, we have put forward a pragmatic solution to this problem with the result that a median double counting error of 0.42% exists across 39 roadside sites in London. Finally, whilst the model can be improved, the current results show promise and demonstrate that the use of a combination of regional scale and local scale models can provide a practical modelling tool for policy development at intergovernmental, national and local authority level, as well as for use in epidemiological studies. PMID:23471172

Evaluating cloud processes in large-scale models: Of idealized case studies, parameterization testbeds and single-column modelling on climate time-scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neggers, Roel

2016-04-01

Boundary-layer schemes have always formed an integral part of General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for numerical weather and climate prediction. The spatial and temporal scales associated with boundary-layer processes and clouds are typically much smaller than those at which GCMs are discretized, which makes their representation through parameterization a necessity. The need for generally applicable boundary-layer parameterizations has motivated many scientific studies, which in effect has created its own active research field in the atmospheric sciences. Of particular interest has been the evaluation of boundary-layer schemes at "process-level". This means that parameterized physics are studied in isolated mode from the larger-scale circulation, using prescribed forcings and excluding any upscale interaction. Although feedbacks are thus prevented, the benefit is an enhanced model transparency, which might aid an investigator in identifying model errors and understanding model behavior. The popularity and success of the process-level approach is demonstrated by the many past and ongoing model inter-comparison studies that have been organized by initiatives such as GCSS/GASS. A red line in the results of these studies is that although most schemes somehow manage to capture first-order aspects of boundary layer cloud fields, there certainly remains room for improvement in many areas. Only too often are boundary layer parameterizations still found to be at the heart of problems in large-scale models, negatively affecting forecast skills of NWP models or causing uncertainty in numerical predictions of future climate. How to break this parameterization "deadlock" remains an open problem. This presentation attempts to give an overview of the various existing methods for the process-level evaluation of boundary-layer physics in large-scale models. This includes i) idealized case studies, ii) longer-term evaluation at permanent meteorological sites (the testbed approach), and iii) process-level evaluation at climate time-scales. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach will be identified and discussed, and some thoughts about possible future developments will be given.

5D Modelling: An Efficient Approach for Creating Spatiotemporal Predictive 3D Maps of Large-Scale Cultural Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doulamis, A.; Doulamis, N.; Ioannidis, C.; Chrysouli, C.; Grammalidis, N.; Dimitropoulos, K.; Potsiou, C.; Stathopoulou, E.-K.; Ioannides, M.

2015-08-01

Outdoor large-scale cultural sites are mostly sensitive to environmental, natural and human made factors, implying an imminent need for a spatio-temporal assessment to identify regions of potential cultural interest (material degradation, structuring, conservation). On the other hand, in Cultural Heritage research quite different actors are involved (archaeologists, curators, conservators, simple users) each of diverse needs. All these statements advocate that a 5D modelling (3D geometry plus time plus levels of details) is ideally required for preservation and assessment of outdoor large scale cultural sites, which is currently implemented as a simple aggregation of 3D digital models at different time and levels of details. The main bottleneck of such an approach is its complexity, making 5D modelling impossible to be validated in real life conditions. In this paper, a cost effective and affordable framework for 5D modelling is proposed based on a spatial-temporal dependent aggregation of 3D digital models, by incorporating a predictive assessment procedure to indicate which regions (surfaces) of an object should be reconstructed at higher levels of details at next time instances and which at lower ones. In this way, dynamic change history maps are created, indicating spatial probabilities of regions needed further 3D modelling at forthcoming instances. Using these maps, predictive assessment can be made, that is, to localize surfaces within the objects where a high accuracy reconstruction process needs to be activated at the forthcoming time instances. The proposed 5D Digital Cultural Heritage Model (5D-DCHM) is implemented using open interoperable standards based on the CityGML framework, which also allows the description of additional semantic metadata information. Visualization aspects are also supported to allow easy manipulation, interaction and representation of the 5D-DCHM geometry and the respective semantic information. The open source 3DCityDB incorporating a PostgreSQL geo-database is used to manage and manipulate 3D data and their semantics.

The site-scale saturated zone flow model for Yucca Mountain: Calibration of different conceptual models and their impact on flow paths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zyvoloski, G.; Kwicklis, E.; Eddebbarh, A.-A.; Arnold, B.; Faunt, C.; Robinson, B.A.

2003-01-01

This paper presents several different conceptual models of the Large Hydraulic Gradient (LHG) region north of Yucca Mountain and describes the impact of those models on groundwater flow near the potential high-level repository site. The results are based on a numerical model of site-scale saturated zone beneath Yucca Mountain. This model is used for performance assessment predictions of radionuclide transport and to guide future data collection and modeling activities. The numerical model is calibrated by matching available water level measurements using parameter estimation techniques, along with more informal comparisons of the model to hydrologic and geochemical information. The model software (hydrologic simulation code FEHM and parameter estimation software PEST) and model setup allows for efficient calibration of multiple conceptual models. Until now, the Large Hydraulic Gradient has been simulated using a low-permeability, east-west oriented feature, even though direct evidence for this feature is lacking. In addition to this model, we investigate and calibrate three additional conceptual models of the Large Hydraulic Gradient, all of which are based on a presumed zone of hydrothermal chemical alteration north of Yucca Mountain. After examining the heads and permeabilities obtained from the calibrated models, we present particle pathways from the potential repository that record differences in the predicted groundwater flow regime. The results show that Large Hydraulic Gradient can be represented with the alternate conceptual models that include the hydrothermally altered zone. The predicted pathways are mildly sensitive to the choice of the conceptual model and more sensitive to the quality of calibration in the vicinity on the repository. These differences are most likely due to different degrees of fit of model to data, and do not represent important differences in hydrologic conditions for the different conceptual models. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial Interpretation of Tower, Chamber and Modelled Terrestrial Fluxes in a Tropical Forest Plantation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whidden, E.; Roulet, N.

2003-04-01

Interpretation of a site average terrestrial flux may be complicated in the presence of inhomogeneities. Inhomogeneity may invalidate the basic assumptions of aerodynamic flux measurement. Chamber measurement may miss or misinterpret important temporal or spatial anomalies. Models may smooth over important nonlinearities depending on the scale of application. Although inhomogeneity is usually seen as a design problem, many sites have spatial variance that may have a large impact on net flux, and in many cases a large homogeneous surface is unrealistic. The sensitivity and validity of a site average flux are investigated in the presence of an inhomogeneous site. Directional differences are used to evaluate the validity of aerodynamic methods and the computation of a site average tower flux. Empirical and modelling methods are used to interpret the spatial controls on flux. An ecosystem model, Ecosys, is used to assess spatial length scales appropriate to the ecophysiologic controls. A diffusion model is used to compare tower, chamber, and model data, by spatially weighting contributions within the tower footprint. Diffusion model weighting is also used to improve tower flux estimates by producing footprint averaged ecological parameters (soil moisture, soil temperature, etc.). Although uncertainty remains in the validity of measurement methods and the accuracy of diffusion models, a detailed spatial interpretation is required at an inhomogeneous site. Flux estimation between methods improves with spatial interpretation, showing the importance to an estimation of a site average flux. Small-scale temporal and spatial anomalies may be relatively unimportant to overall flux, but accounting for medium-scale differences in ecophysiological controls is necessary. A combination of measurements and modelling can be used to define the appropriate time and length scales of significant non-linearity due to inhomogeneity.

The General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) and its applications to agricultural systems in the United States: Chapter 18

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Shuguang; Tan, Zhengxi; Chen, Mingshi; Liu, Jinxun; Wein, Anne; Li, Zhengpeng; Huang, Shengli; Oeding, Jennifer; Young, Claudia; Verma, Shashi B.; Suyker, Andrew E.; Faulkner, Stephen P.

2012-01-01

The General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) was es in individual models, it uses multiple site-scale biogeochemical models to perform model simulations. Second, it adopts Monte Carlo ensemble simulations of each simulation unit (one site/pixel or group of sites/pixels with similar biophysical conditions) to incorporate uncertainties and variability (as measured by variances and covariance) of input variables into model simulations. In this chapter, we illustrate the applications of GEMS at the site and regional scales with an emphasis on incorporating agricultural practices. Challenges in modeling soil carbon dynamics and greenhouse emissions are also discussed.

Small-scale topography modulates elevational α-, β- and γ-diversity of Andean leaf beetles.

PubMed

Thormann, Birthe; Ahrens, Dirk; Espinosa, Carlos Iván; Armijos, Diego Marín; Wagner, Thomas; Wägele, Johann W; Peters, Marcell K

2018-05-01

Elevational diversity gradients are typically studied without considering the complex small-scale topography of large mountains, which generates habitats of strongly different environmental conditions within the same elevational zones. Here we analyzed the importance of small-scale topography for elevational diversity patterns of hyperdiverse tropical leaf beetles (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). We compared patterns of elevational diversity and species composition of beetles in two types of forests (on mountain ridges and in valleys) and analyzed whether differences in the rate of species turnover among forest habitats lead to shifts in patterns of elevational diversity when scaling up from the local study site to the elevational belt level. We sampled beetle assemblages at 36 sites in the Podocarpus National Park, Ecuador, which were equally distributed over two forest habitats and three elevational levels. DNA barcoding and Poisson tree processes modelling were used to delimitate putative species. On average, local leaf beetle diversity showed a clear hump-shaped pattern. However, only diversity in forests on mountain ridges peaked at mid-elevation, while beetle diversity in valleys was similarly high at low- and mid-elevation and only declined at highest elevations. A higher turnover of species assemblages at lower than at mid-elevations caused a shift from a hump-shaped diversity pattern found at the local level to a low-elevation plateau pattern (with similar species numbers at low and mid-elevation) at the elevational belt level. Our study reveals an important role of small-scale topography and spatial scale for the inference on gradients of elevational species diversity.

Modeling Groundwater Flow and Infiltration at Potential Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, B. W.; Lee, C.; Ma, C.; Knowlton, R. G.

2006-12-01

Taiwan is evaluating representative sites for the potential disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW), including consideration of shallow land burial and cavern disposal concepts. A representative site for shallow land burial is on a small island in the Taiwan Strait with basalt bedrock. The shallow land burial concept includes an engineered cover to limit infiltration into the waste disposal cell. A representative site for cavern disposal is located on the southeast coast of Taiwan. The tunnel system for this disposal concept would be several hundred meters below the mountainous land surface in argillite bedrock. The LLW will consist of about 966,000 drums, primarily from the operation and decommissioning of four nuclear power plants. Sandia National Laboratories and the Institute of Nuclear Energy Research have collaborated to develop performance assessment models to evaluate the long-term safety of LLW disposal at these representative sites. Important components of the system models are sub-models of groundwater flow in the natural system and infiltration through the engineered cover for the shallow land burial concept. The FEHM software code was used to simulate groundwater flow in three-dimensional models at both sites. In addition, a higher-resolution two-dimensional model was developed to simulate flow through the engineered tunnel system at the cavern site. The HELP software was used to simulate infiltration through the cover at the island site. The primary objective of these preliminary models is to provide a modeling framework, given the lack of site-specific data and detailed engineering design specifications. The steady-state groundwater flow model at the island site uses a specified recharge boundary at the land surface and specified head at the island shoreline. Simulated groundwater flow vectors are extracted from the FEHM model along a cross section through one of the LLW disposal cells for utilization in radionuclide transport simulations in the performance assessment model with the BLT-MS software. Infiltration through the engineered cover is simulated to be about 3 mm/yr and 49 mm/yr, with and without a geomembrane layer, respectively. For the cavern LLW disposal site, the FEHM basin-scale flow model uses specified recharge flux, constant head at the ocean shoreline, and head-dependent flux boundaries along flowing streams. Groundwater flow vectors are extracted along a cross section for use in radionuclide transport simulations. Transport simulations indicate that a significant fraction of contaminants may ultimately discharge to nearby streams. FEHM flow simulations with the drift-scale model indicate that the flow rates within the backfilled tunnels may be more than two orders of magnitude lower than in the host rock. Sandia National Laboratories is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.

2017-01-01

Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist for many plant species. Modelers should exploit these data to predict the impacts of environmental change.

Prediction of resource volumes at untested locations using simple local prediction models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2006-01-01

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

Meteorological Predictions in Support of the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent and Landing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothchild, A.; Rafkin, S. C.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.

2010-12-01

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry, descent, and landing (EDL) system employs a standard parachute strategy followed by a new sky crane concept where the rover is lowered to the ground via a tether from a hovering entry vehicle. As with previous missions, EDL system performance is sensitive to atmospheric conditions. While some observations characterizing the mean, large-scale atmospheric temperature and density data are available, there is effectively no information on the atmospheric conditions and variability at the scale that directly affects the spacecraft. In order to evaluate EDL system performance and to assess landing hazards and risk, it is necessary to simulate the atmosphere with a model that provides data at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Models also permit the study of the impact of the highly variable atmospheric dust loading on temperature, density and winds. There are four potential MSL landing sites: Mawrth Valle (22.3 N, 16.5W) , Gale Crater (5.4S, 137.7E), Holden Crater (26.1S, 34W), and Eberswalde Crater (24S, 33W). The final selection of the landing site will balance potential science return against landing and operational risk. Atmospheric modeling studies conducted with the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) is an integral part of the selection process. At each of the landing sites, a variety of simulations are conducted. The first type of simulations provide baseline predictions under nominal atmospheric dust loading conditions within the landing site window of ~Ls 150-170. The second type of simulation explores situations with moderate and high global atmospheric dust loading. The final type of simulation investigates the impact of local dust disturbances at the landing site. Mean and perturbation fields from each type of simulation at each of the potential landing sites are presented in comparison with the engineering performance limitations for the MSL EDL system. Within the lowest scale height, winds are strongly influenced by the local and regional topography and are highly variable in both space and time. Convective activity in the afternoon produces deep vertical circulations anchored primarily to topography. Aloft, winds become increasingly dominated by the large-scale circulation, but with gravity wave perturbations forced by both topography and boundary layer convective activity. The mean density field is tied directly to the level of dust loading; higher dust results in decreased densities and overall warming of the atmospheric column. In local and regional dust storm scenarios, winds are found to be enhanced, particularly in regions of active dust lifting. Local reductions in density are also pronounced. At present, the predicted mean and perturbation fields from all the simulations appear to fall within the engineering requirements, but not always comfortably so. This is in contrast to proposed landing sites for the Mars Exploration Rover mission, where the atmospheric environment presented unacceptable risk. Ongoing work is underway to confirm that atmospheric conditions will permit safe EDL operations with a tolerable level of risk.

Modelling hurricane exposure and wind speed on a mesoclimate scale: a case study from Cusuco NP, Honduras.

PubMed

Batke, Sven P; Jocque, Merlijn; Kelly, Daniel L

2014-01-01

High energy weather events are often expected to play a substantial role in biotic community dynamics and large scale diversity patterns but their contribution is hard to prove. Currently, observations are limited to the documentation of accidental records after the passing of such events. A more comprehensive approach is synthesising weather events in a location over a long time period, ideally at a high spatial resolution and on a large geographic scale. We provide a detailed overview on how to generate hurricane exposure data at a meso-climate level for a specific region. As a case study we modelled landscape hurricane exposure in Cusuco National Park (CNP), Honduras with a resolution of 50 m×50 m patches. We calculated actual hurricane exposure vulnerability site scores (EVVS) through the combination of a wind pressure model, an exposure model that can incorporate simple wind dynamics within a 3-dimensional landscape and the integration of historical hurricanes data. The EVSS was calculated as a weighted function of sites exposure, hurricane frequency and maximum wind velocity. Eleven hurricanes were found to have affected CNP between 1995 and 2010. The highest EVSS's were predicted to be on South and South-East facing sites of the park. Ground validation demonstrated that the South-solution (i.e. the South wind inflow direction) explained most of the observed tree damage (90% of the observed tree damage in the field). Incorporating historical data to the model to calculate actual hurricane exposure values, instead of potential exposure values, increased the model fit by 50%.

Modelling Hurricane Exposure and Wind Speed on a Mesoclimate Scale: A Case Study from Cusuco NP, Honduras

PubMed Central

Batke, Sven P.; Jocque, Merlijn; Kelly, Daniel L.

2014-01-01

High energy weather events are often expected to play a substantial role in biotic community dynamics and large scale diversity patterns but their contribution is hard to prove. Currently, observations are limited to the documentation of accidental records after the passing of such events. A more comprehensive approach is synthesising weather events in a location over a long time period, ideally at a high spatial resolution and on a large geographic scale. We provide a detailed overview on how to generate hurricane exposure data at a meso-climate level for a specific region. As a case study we modelled landscape hurricane exposure in Cusuco National Park (CNP), Honduras with a resolution of 50 m×50 m patches. We calculated actual hurricane exposure vulnerability site scores (EVVS) through the combination of a wind pressure model, an exposure model that can incorporate simple wind dynamics within a 3-dimensional landscape and the integration of historical hurricanes data. The EVSS was calculated as a weighted function of sites exposure, hurricane frequency and maximum wind velocity. Eleven hurricanes were found to have affected CNP between 1995 and 2010. The highest EVSS’s were predicted to be on South and South-East facing sites of the park. Ground validation demonstrated that the South-solution (i.e. the South wind inflow direction) explained most of the observed tree damage (90% of the observed tree damage in the field). Incorporating historical data to the model to calculate actual hurricane exposure values, instead of potential exposure values, increased the model fit by 50%. PMID:24614168

Role of meteorological processes in two New England ozone episodes during summer 2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Huiting; Talbot, Robert

2004-10-01

We examined the impact of dynamical processes on spatial variability in ozone (O3) mixing ratios at closely spaced air monitoring sites in southern New Hampshire (NH) during two O3 episodes, July 21-25 and August 2, 2001. The Meso-scale Meteorological Model (MM5) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical model were applied together with ground-based atmospheric chemistry observations conducted by the Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (AIRMAP) program at the University of New Hampshire. Observations and model simulations suggested that during the July episode long-range transport via the nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) played an important role in producing elevated daytime mixing ratios of O3. The marine site Isle of Shoals experienced the highest level of O3, possibly a result of having more diverse upwind sources and less ventilation compared to continental sites. Our model results suggest that during daytime the shallow sea breeze circulation contributes to high levels of O3 at coastal and marine sites while the channeling effect of the Appalachian Mountains influences inland locations. In contrast to the July event, the event on August 2 was characterized by weak and transient synoptic flows, indicating insufficient time for transport of O3 and its precursors from distant sources to inland sites in NH. Backward trajectories for both events showed that O3-rich air masses from the Boston metropolitan area can contribute to the high levels of O3 (>120 ppbv) at coastal and marine sites in southern NH. Our results suggest that the International Consortium of Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT), an international field campaign based in the northeastern United States in summer 2004, should coordinate mobile platforms to investigate the vertical structure and chemical composition of the LLJ, the sea breeze, and the terrain-forced flows, and estimate the influx of O3 and its precursors to central New England.

National-scale exposure prediction for long-term concentrations of particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide in South Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Sun-Young; Song, Insang

2017-07-01

The limited spatial coverage of the air pollution data available from regulatory air quality monitoring networks hampers national-scale epidemiological studies of air pollution. The present study aimed to develop a national-scale exposure prediction model for estimating annual average concentrations of PM 10 and NO 2 at residences in South Korea using regulatory monitoring data for 2010. Using hourly measurements of PM 10 and NO 2 at 277 regulatory monitoring sites, we calculated the annual average concentrations at each site. We also computed 322 geographic variables in order to represent plausible local and regional pollution sources. Using these data, we developed universal kriging models, including three summary predictors estimated by partial least squares (PLS). The model performance was evaluated with fivefold cross-validation. In sensitivity analyses, we compared our approach with two alternative approaches, which added regional interactions and replaced the PLS predictors with up to ten selected variables. Finally, we predicted the annual average concentrations of PM 10 and NO 2 at 83,463 centroids of residential census output areas in South Korea to investigate the population exposure to these pollutants and to compare the exposure levels between monitored and unmonitored areas. The means of the annual average concentrations of PM 10 and NO 2 for 2010, across regulatory monitoring sites in South Korea, were 51.63 μg/m3 (SD = 8.58) and 25.64 ppb (11.05), respectively. The universal kriging exposure prediction models yielded cross-validated R 2 s of 0.45 and 0.82 for PM 10 and NO 2 , respectively. Compared to our model, the two alternative approaches gave consistent or worse performances. Population exposure levels in unmonitored areas were lower than in monitored areas. This is the first study that focused on developing a national-scale point wise exposure prediction approach in South Korea, which will allow national exposure assessments and epidemiological research to answer policy-related questions and to draw comparisons among different countries. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2007-01-01

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be area-wide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim shale gas play, Michigan Basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models which can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) may lose granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined by extraneous factors. The paper also shows that when these simple prediction models are used to strategically order drilling prospects, the gain in gas volume over volumes associated with simple random site selection amounts to 15 to 20 percent. It also discusses why the observed benefit of updating predictions from results of new drilling, as opposed to following static predictions, is somewhat smaller. Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Match and mismatch - comparing plant phenological metrics from ground-observations and from a prognostic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutishauser, This; Stöckli, Reto; Jeanneret, François; Peñuelas, Josep

2010-05-01

Changes in the seasonality of life cycles of plants as recorded in phenological observations have been widely analysed at the species level with data available for many decades back in time. At the same time, seasonality changes in satellite-based observations and prognostic phenology models comprise information at the pixel-size or landscape scale. Change analysis of satellite-based records is restricted due to relatively short satellite records that further include gaps while model-based analyses are biased due to current model deficiencies., At 30 selected sites across Europe, we analysed three different sources of plant seasonality during the 1971-2000 period. Data consisted of (1) species-specific development stages of flowering and leave-out with different species observed at each site. (2) We used a synthetic phenological metric that integrates the common interannual phenological signal across all species at one site. (3) We estimated daily Leaf Area Index with a prognostic phenology model. The prior uncertainties of the model's empirical parameter space are constrained by assimilating the Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We extracted the day of year when the 25%, 50% and 75% thresholds were passed each spring. The question arises how the three phenological signals compare and correlate across climate zones in Europe. Is there a match between single species observations, species-based ground-observed metrics and the landscape-scale prognostic model? Are there single key-species across Europe that best represent a landscape scale measure from the prognostic model? Can one source substitute another and serve as proxy-data? What can we learn from potential mismatches? Focusing on changes in spring this contribution presents first results of an ongoing comparison study from a number of European test sites that will be extended to the pan-European phenological database Cost725 and PEP725.

A hybrid downscaling procedure for estimating the vertical distribution of ambient temperature in local scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yiannikopoulou, I.; Philippopoulos, K.; Deligiorgi, D.

2012-04-01

The vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere is defined by a combination of dynamic and radiation transfer processes and plays an important role in describing the meteorological conditions at local scales. The scope of this work is to develop and quantify the predictive ability of a hybrid dynamic-statistical downscaling procedure to estimate the vertical profile of ambient temperature at finer spatial scales. The study focuses on the warm period of the year (June - August) and the method is applied to an urban coastal site (Hellinikon), located in eastern Mediterranean. The two-step methodology initially involves the dynamic downscaling of coarse resolution climate data via the RegCM4.0 regional climate model and subsequently the statistical downscaling of the modeled outputs by developing and training site-specific artificial neural networks (ANN). The 2.5ox2.5o gridded NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 dataset is used as initial and boundary conditions for the dynamic downscaling element of the methodology, which enhances the regional representivity of the dataset to 20km and provides modeled fields in 18 vertical levels. The regional climate modeling results are compared versus the upper-air Hellinikon radiosonde observations and the mean absolute error (MAE) is calculated between the four grid point values nearest to the station and the ambient temperature at the standard and significant pressure levels. The statistical downscaling element of the methodology consists of an ensemble of ANN models, one for each pressure level, which are trained separately and employ the regional scale RegCM4.0 output. The ANN models are theoretically capable of estimating any measurable input-output function to any desired degree of accuracy. In this study they are used as non-linear function approximators for identifying the relationship between a number of predictor variables and the ambient temperature at the various vertical levels. An insight of the statistically derived input-output transfer functions is obtained by utilizing the ANN weights method, which quantifies the relative importance of the predictor variables in the estimation procedure. The overall downscaling performance evaluation incorporates a set of correlation and statistical measures along with appropriate statistical tests. The hybrid downscaling method presented in this work can be extended to various locations by training different site-specific ANN models and the results, depending on the application, can be used for assisting the understanding of the past, present and future climatology. ____________________________ This research has been co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program: Heracleitus II: Investing in knowledge society through the European Social Fund.

Effect of environmental conditions on the relationship between solar-induced fluorescence and gross primary productivity at an OzFlux grassland site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Manish; Schimel, David; Evans, Bradley; Frankenberg, Christian; Beringer, Jason; Drewry, Darren T.; Magney, Troy; Marang, Ian; Hutley, Lindsay; Moore, Caitlin; Eldering, Annmarie

2017-03-01

Recent studies have utilized coarse spatial and temporal resolution remotely sensed solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) for modeling terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) at regional scales. Although these studies have demonstrated the potential of SIF, there have been concerns about the ecophysiological basis of the relationship between SIF and GPP in different environmental conditions. Launched in 2014, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) has enabled fine-scale (1.3 by 2.5 km) retrievals of SIF that are comparable with measurements recorded at eddy covariance towers. In this study, we examine the effect of environmental conditions on the relationship of OCO-2 SIF with tower GPP over the course of a growing season at a well-characterized natural grassland site. Combining OCO-2 SIF and eddy covariance tower data with a canopy radiative transfer and an ecosystem model, we also assess the potential of OCO-2 SIF to constrain the estimates of Vcmax, one of the most important parameters in ecosystem models. Based on the results, we suggest that although environmental conditions play a role in determining the nature of relationship between SIF and GPP, overall, the linear relationship is more robust at ecosystem scale than the theory based on leaf-level processes might suggest. Our study also shows that the ability of SIF to constrain Vcmax is weak at the selected site.

A multi-level analysis of the relationship between environmental factors and questing Ixodes ricinus dynamics in Belgium

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Ticks are the most important pathogen vectors in Europe. They are known to be influenced by environmental factors, but these links are usually studied at specific temporal or spatial scales. Focusing on Ixodes ricinus in Belgium, we attempt to bridge the gap between current “single-sided” studies that focus on temporal or spatial variation only. Here, spatial and temporal patterns of ticks are modelled together. Methods A multi-level analysis of the Ixodes ricinus patterns in Belgium was performed. Joint effects of weather, habitat quality and hunting on field sampled tick abundance were examined at two levels, namely, sampling level, which is associated with temporal dynamics, and site level, which is related to spatial dynamics. Independent variables were collected from standard weather station records, game management data and remote sensing-based land cover data. Results At sampling level, only a marginally significant effect of daily relative humidity and temperature on the abundance of questing nymphs was identified. Average wind speed of seven days prior to the sampling day was found important to both questing nymphs and adults. At site level, a group of landscape-level forest fragmentation indices were highlighted for both questing nymph and adult abundance, including the nearest-neighbour distance, the shape and the aggregation level of forest patches. No cross-level effects or spatial autocorrelation were found. Conclusions Nymphal and adult ticks responded differently to environmental variables at different spatial and temporal scales. Our results can advise spatio-temporal extents of environment data collection for continuing empirical investigations and potential parameters for biological tick models. PMID:22830528

Using Radar, Lidar, and Radiometer measurements to Classify Cloud Type and Study Middle-Level Cloud Properties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Zhien

2010-06-29

The project is mainly focused on the characterization of cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties, especially for mixed-phased clouds and middle level ice clouds by combining radar, lidar, and radiometer measurements available from the ACRF sites. First, an advanced mixed-phase cloud retrieval algorithm will be developed to cover all mixed-phase clouds observed at the ACRF NSA site. The algorithm will be applied to the ACRF NSA observations to generate a long-term arctic mixed-phase cloud product for model validations and arctic mixed-phase cloud processes studies. To improve the representation of arctic mixed-phase clouds in GCMs, an advanced understanding of mixed-phase cloud processesmore » is needed. By combining retrieved mixed-phase cloud microphysical properties with in situ data and large-scale meteorological data, the project aim to better understand the generations of ice crystals in supercooled water clouds, the maintenance mechanisms of the arctic mixed-phase clouds, and their connections with large-scale dynamics. The project will try to develop a new retrieval algorithm to study more complex mixed-phase clouds observed at the ACRF SGP site. Compared with optically thin ice clouds, optically thick middle level ice clouds are less studied because of limited available tools. The project will develop a new two wavelength radar technique for optically thick ice cloud study at SGP site by combining the MMCR with the W-band radar measurements. With this new algorithm, the SGP site will have a better capability to study all ice clouds. Another area of the proposal is to generate long-term cloud type classification product for the multiple ACRF sites. The cloud type classification product will not only facilitates the generation of the integrated cloud product by applying different retrieval algorithms to different types of clouds operationally, but will also support other research to better understand cloud properties and to validate model simulations. The ultimate goal is to improve our cloud classification algorithm into a VAP.« less

Estimation of Regional Net CO2 Exchange over the Southern Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biraud, S. C.; Riley, W. J.; Fischer, M. L.; Torn, M. S.; Cooley, H. S.

2004-12-01

Estimating spatially distributed ecosystem CO2 exchange is an important component of the North American Carbon Program. We describe here a methodology to estimate Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) over the Southern Great Plains, using: (1) data from the Department Of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in Oklahoma and Kansas; (2) meteorological forcing data from the Mesonet facilities; (3) soil and vegetation types from 1 km resolution USGS databases; (4) vegetation status (e.g., LAI) from 1 km satellite measurements of surface reflectance (MODIS); (5) a tested land-surface model; and (6) a coupled land-surface and meteorological model (MM5/ISOLSM). This framework allows us to simulate regional surface fluxes in addition to ABL and free troposphere concentrations of CO2 at a continental scale with fine-scale nested grids centered on the ARM central facility. We use the offline land-surface and coupled models to estimate regional NEE, and compare predictions to measurements from the 9 Extended Facility sites with eddy correlation measurements. Site level comparisons to portable ECOR measurements in several crop types are also presented. Our approach also allows us to extend bottom-up estimates to periods and areas where meteorological forcing data are unavailable.

The Relative Importance of the Vadose Zone in Multimedia Risk Assessment Modeling Applied at a National Scale: An Analysis of Benzene Using 3MRA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babendreier, J. E.

2002-05-01

Evaluating uncertainty and parameter sensitivity in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-media constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. The challenge of examining ever more complex, integrated, higher-order models is a formidable one, particularly in regulatory settings applied on a national scale. Quantitative assessment of uncertainty and sensitivity within integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a systematic, comparative approach coupled with sufficient computational power. The Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment Model (3MRA) is an important code being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in site-scale risk assessment (e.g. hazardous waste management facilities). The model currently entails over 700 variables, 185 of which are explicitly stochastic. The 3MRA can start with a chemical concentration in a waste management unit (WMU). It estimates the release and transport of the chemical throughout the environment, and predicts associated exposure and risk. The 3MRA simulates multimedia (air, water, soil, sediments), pollutant fate and transport, multipathway exposure routes (food ingestion, water ingestion, soil ingestion, air inhalation, etc.), multireceptor exposures (resident, gardener, farmer, fisher, ecological habitats and populations), and resulting risk (human cancer and non-cancer effects, ecological population and community effects). The 3MRA collates the output for an overall national risk assessment, offering a probabilistic strategy as a basis for regulatory decisions. To facilitate model execution of 3MRA for purposes of conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, a PC-based supercomputer cluster was constructed. Design of SuperMUSE, a 125 GHz Windows-based Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation is described, along with the conceptual layout of an accompanying java-based paralleling software toolset. Preliminary work is also reported for a scenario involving Benzene disposal that describes the relative importance of the vadose zone in driving risk levels for ecological receptors and human health. Incorporating landfills, waste piles, aerated tanks, surface impoundments, and land application units, the site-based data used in the analysis included 201 national facilities representing 419 site-WMU combinations.

A site specific model and analysis of the neutral somatic mutation rate in whole-genome cancer data.

PubMed

Bertl, Johanna; Guo, Qianyun; Juul, Malene; Besenbacher, Søren; Nielsen, Morten Muhlig; Hornshøj, Henrik; Pedersen, Jakob Skou; Hobolth, Asger

2018-04-19

Detailed modelling of the neutral mutational process in cancer cells is crucial for identifying driver mutations and understanding the mutational mechanisms that act during cancer development. The neutral mutational process is very complex: whole-genome analyses have revealed that the mutation rate differs between cancer types, between patients and along the genome depending on the genetic and epigenetic context. Therefore, methods that predict the number of different types of mutations in regions or specific genomic elements must consider local genomic explanatory variables. A major drawback of most methods is the need to average the explanatory variables across the entire region or genomic element. This procedure is particularly problematic if the explanatory variable varies dramatically in the element under consideration. To take into account the fine scale of the explanatory variables, we model the probabilities of different types of mutations for each position in the genome by multinomial logistic regression. We analyse 505 cancer genomes from 14 different cancer types and compare the performance in predicting mutation rate for both regional based models and site-specific models. We show that for 1000 randomly selected genomic positions, the site-specific model predicts the mutation rate much better than regional based models. We use a forward selection procedure to identify the most important explanatory variables. The procedure identifies site-specific conservation (phyloP), replication timing, and expression level as the best predictors for the mutation rate. Finally, our model confirms and quantifies certain well-known mutational signatures. We find that our site-specific multinomial regression model outperforms the regional based models. The possibility of including genomic variables on different scales and patient specific variables makes it a versatile framework for studying different mutational mechanisms. Our model can serve as the neutral null model for the mutational process; regions that deviate from the null model are candidates for elements that drive cancer development.

THE SIMULATION OF FINE SCALE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOTIONS WITH A MESO-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Werth, D.; Kurzeja, R.; Parker, M.

A field project over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement-Clouds and Radiation Testbed (ARM-CART) site during a period of several nights in September, 2007 was conducted to explore the evolution of the low-level jet (LLJ). Data was collected from a tower and a sodar and analyzed for turbulent behavior. To study the full range of nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) behavior, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) was used to simulate the ARM-CART NBL field experiment and validated against the data collected from the site. This model was run at high resolution, and is ideal for calculating the interactions among the various motionsmore » within the boundary layer and their influence on the surface. The model reproduces adequately the synoptic situation and the formation and dissolution cycles of the low-level jet, although it suffers from insufficient cloud production and excessive nocturnal cooling. The authors suggest that observed heat flux data may further improve the realism of the simulations both in the cloud formation and in the jet characteristics. In a higher resolution simulation, the NBL experiences motion on a range of timescales as revealed by a wavelet analysis, and these are affected by the presence of the LLJ. The model can therefore be used to provide information on activity throughout the depth of the NBL.« less

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2008-01-01

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

MODFLOW-LGR: Practical application to a large regional dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, D.; Coulibaly, K. M.

2011-12-01

In many areas of the US, including southwest Florida, large regional-scale groundwater models have been developed to aid in decision making and water resources management. These models are subsequently used as a basis for site-specific investigations. Because the large scale of these regional models is not appropriate for local application, refinement is necessary to analyze the local effects of pumping wells and groundwater related projects at specific sites. The most commonly used approach to date is Telescopic Mesh Refinement or TMR. It allows the extraction of a subset of the large regional model with boundary conditions derived from the regional model results. The extracted model is then updated and refined for local use using a variable sized grid focused on the area of interest. MODFLOW-LGR, local grid refinement, is an alternative approach which allows model discretization at a finer resolution in areas of interest and provides coupling between the larger "parent" model and the locally refined "child." In the present work, these two approaches are tested on a mining impact assessment case in southwest Florida using a large regional dataset (The Lower West Coast Surficial Aquifer System Model). Various metrics for performance are considered. They include: computation time, water balance (as compared to the variable sized grid), calibration, implementation effort, and application advantages and limitations. The results indicate that MODFLOW-LGR is a useful tool to improve local resolution of regional scale models. While performance metrics, such as computation time, are case-dependent (model size, refinement level, stresses involved), implementation effort, particularly when regional models of suitable scale are available, can be minimized. The creation of multiple child models within a larger scale parent model makes it possible to reuse the same calibrated regional dataset with minimal modification. In cases similar to the Lower West Coast model, where a model is larger than optimal for direct application as a parent grid, a combination of TMR and LGR approaches should be used to develop a suitable parent grid.

MOLA-Based Landing Site Characterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duxbury, T. C.; Ivanov, A. B.

2001-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) data provide the basis for site characterization and selection never before possible. The basic MOLA information includes absolute radii, elevation and 1 micrometer albedo with derived datasets including digital image models (DIM's illuminated elevation data), slopes maps and slope statistics and small scale surface roughness maps and statistics. These quantities are useful in downsizing potential sites from descent engineering constraints and landing/roving hazard and mobility assessments. Slope baselines at the few hundred meter level and surface roughness at the 10 meter level are possible. Additionally, the MOLA-derived Mars surface offers the possibility to precisely register and map project other instrument datasets (images, ultraviolet, infrared, radar, etc.) taken at different resolution, viewing and lighting geometry, building multiple layers of an information cube for site characterization and selection. Examples of direct MOLA data, data derived from MOLA and other instruments data registered to MOLA arc given for the Hematite area.

Disentangling how landscape spatial and temporal heterogeneity affects Savanna birds.

PubMed

Price, Bronwyn; McAlpine, Clive A; Kutt, Alex S; Ward, Doug; Phinn, Stuart R; Ludwig, John A

2013-01-01

In highly seasonal tropical environments, temporal changes in habitat and resources are a significant determinant of the spatial distribution of species. This study disentangles the effects of spatial and mid to long-term temporal heterogeneity in habitat on the diversity and abundance of savanna birds by testing four competing conceptual models of varying complexity. Focussing on sites in northeast Australia over a 20 year time period, we used ground cover and foliage projected cover surfaces derived from a time series of Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, rainfall data and site-level vegetation surveys to derive measures of habitat structure at local (1-100 ha) and landscape (100-1000s ha) scales. We used generalised linear models and an information theoretic approach to test the independent effects of spatial and temporal influences on savanna bird diversity and the abundance of eight species with different life-history behaviours. Of four competing models defining influences on assemblages of savanna birds, the most parsimonious included temporal and spatial variability in vegetation cover and site-scale vegetation structure, suggesting savanna bird species respond to spatial and temporal habitat heterogeneity at both the broader landscape scale and at the fine-scale. The relative weight, strength and direction of the explanatory variables changed with each of the eight species, reflecting their different ecology and behavioural traits. This study demonstrates that variations in the spatial pattern of savanna vegetation over periods of 10 to 20 years at the local and landscape scale strongly affect bird diversity and abundance. Thus, it is essential to monitor and manage both spatial and temporal variability in avian habitat to achieve long-term biodiversity outcomes.

Disentangling How Landscape Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity Affects Savanna Birds

PubMed Central

Price, Bronwyn; McAlpine, Clive A.; Kutt, Alex S.; Ward, Doug; Phinn, Stuart R.; Ludwig, John A.

2013-01-01

In highly seasonal tropical environments, temporal changes in habitat and resources are a significant determinant of the spatial distribution of species. This study disentangles the effects of spatial and mid to long-term temporal heterogeneity in habitat on the diversity and abundance of savanna birds by testing four competing conceptual models of varying complexity. Focussing on sites in northeast Australia over a 20 year time period, we used ground cover and foliage projected cover surfaces derived from a time series of Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, rainfall data and site-level vegetation surveys to derive measures of habitat structure at local (1–100 ha) and landscape (100–1000s ha) scales. We used generalised linear models and an information theoretic approach to test the independent effects of spatial and temporal influences on savanna bird diversity and the abundance of eight species with different life-history behaviours. Of four competing models defining influences on assemblages of savanna birds, the most parsimonious included temporal and spatial variability in vegetation cover and site-scale vegetation structure, suggesting savanna bird species respond to spatial and temporal habitat heterogeneity at both the broader landscape scale and at the fine-scale. The relative weight, strength and direction of the explanatory variables changed with each of the eight species, reflecting their different ecology and behavioural traits. This study demonstrates that variations in the spatial pattern of savanna vegetation over periods of 10 to 20 years at the local and landscape scale strongly affect bird diversity and abundance. Thus, it is essential to monitor and manage both spatial and temporal variability in avian habitat to achieve long-term biodiversity outcomes. PMID:24066138

Silvicolous on a small scale: possibilities and limitations of habitat suitability models for small, elusive mammals in conservation management and landscape planning.

PubMed

Becker, Nina I; Encarnação, Jorge A

2015-01-01

Species distribution and endangerment can be assessed by habitat-suitability modelling. This study addresses methodical aspects of habitat suitability modelling and includes an application example in actual species conservation and landscape planning. Models using species presence-absence data are preferable to presence-only models. In contrast to species presence data, absences are rarely recorded. Therefore, many studies generate pseudo-absence data for modelling. However, in this study model quality was higher with null samples collected in the field. Next to species data the choice of landscape data is crucial for suitability modelling. Landscape data with high resolution and ecological relevance for the study species improve model reliability and quality for small elusive mammals like Muscardinus avellanarius. For large scale assessment of species distribution, models with low-detailed data are sufficient. For regional site-specific conservation issues like a conflict-free site for new wind turbines, high-detailed regional models are needed. Even though the overlap with optimally suitable habitat for M. avellanarius was low, the installation of wind plants can pose a threat due to habitat loss and fragmentation. To conclude, modellers should clearly state the purpose of their models and choose the according level of detail for species and environmental data.

Silvicolous on a Small Scale: Possibilities and Limitations of Habitat Suitability Models for Small, Elusive Mammals in Conservation Management and Landscape Planning

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Species distribution and endangerment can be assessed by habitat-suitability modelling. This study addresses methodical aspects of habitat suitability modelling and includes an application example in actual species conservation and landscape planning. Models using species presence-absence data are preferable to presence-only models. In contrast to species presence data, absences are rarely recorded. Therefore, many studies generate pseudo-absence data for modelling. However, in this study model quality was higher with null samples collected in the field. Next to species data the choice of landscape data is crucial for suitability modelling. Landscape data with high resolution and ecological relevance for the study species improve model reliability and quality for small elusive mammals like Muscardinus avellanarius. For large scale assessment of species distribution, models with low-detailed data are sufficient. For regional site-specific conservation issues like a conflict-free site for new wind turbines, high-detailed regional models are needed. Even though the overlap with optimally suitable habitat for M. avellanarius was low, the installation of wind plants can pose a threat due to habitat loss and fragmentation. To conclude, modellers should clearly state the purpose of their models and choose the according level of detail for species and environmental data. PMID:25781894

Spatio-temporal variation of urban ultrafine particle number concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, Martina S.; Ducret-Stich, Regina E.; Foraster, Maria; Morelli, Xavier; Aguilera, Inmaculada; Basagaña, Xavier; Corradi, Elisabetta; Ineichen, Alex; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Rivera, Marcela; Slama, Rémy; Künzli, Nino; Phuleria, Harish C.

2014-10-01

Methods are needed to characterize short-term exposure to ultrafine particle number concentrations (UFP) for epidemiological studies on the health effects of traffic-related UFP. Our aims were to assess season-specific spatial variation of short-term (20-min) UFP within the city of Basel, Switzerland, and to develop hybrid models for predicting short-term median and mean UFP levels on sidewalks. We collected measurements of UFP for periods of 20 min (MiniDiSC particle counter) and determined traffic volume along sidewalks at 60 locations across the city, during non-rush hours in three seasons. For each monitoring location, detailed spatial characteristics were locally recorded and potential predictor variables were derived from geographic information systems (GIS). We built multivariate regression models to predict local UFP, using concurrent UFP levels measured at a suburban background station, and combinations of meteorological, temporal, GIS and observed site characteristic variables. For a subset of sites, we assessed the relationship between UFP measured on the sidewalk and at the nearby residence (i.e., home outdoor exposure on e.g. balconies). The average median 20-min UFP levels at street and urban background sites were 14,700 ± 9100 particles cm-3 and 9900 ± 8600 particles cm-3, respectively, with the highest levels occurring in winter and the lowest in summer. The most important predictor for all models was the suburban background UFP concentration, explaining 50% and 38% of the variability of the median and mean, respectively. While the models with GIS-derived variables (R2 = 0.61) or observed site characteristics (R2 = 0.63) predicted median UFP levels equally well, mean UFP predictions using only site characteristic variables (R2 = 0.62) showed a better fit than models using only GIS variables (R2 = 0.55). The best model performance was obtained by using a combination of GIS-derived variables and locally observed site characteristics (median: R2 = 0.66; mean: R2 = 0.65). The 20-min UFP concentrations measured at the sidewalk were strongly related (R2 = 0.8) to the concurrent 20-min residential UFP levels nearby. Our results indicate that median UFP can be moderately predicted by means of a suburban background site and GIS-derived traffic and land use variables. In areas and regions where large-scale GIS data are not available, the spatial distribution of traffic-related UFP may be assessed reasonably well by collecting on-site short-term traffic and land-use data.

SOLVENT EXTRACTION AND SOIL WASHING TREATMENT OF CONTAMINATED SOILS FROM WOOD PRESERVING SITES: BENCH SCALE STUDIES

EPA Science Inventory

Bench-scale solvent extraction and soil washing studies were performed on soil samples obtained from three abandoned wood preserving sites that included in the NPL. The soil samples from these sites were contaminated with high levels of polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), pentachlo...

Doubly stochastic Poisson process models for precipitation at fine time-scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramesh, Nadarajah I.; Onof, Christian; Xie, Dichao

2012-09-01

This paper considers a class of stochastic point process models, based on doubly stochastic Poisson processes, in the modelling of rainfall. We examine the application of this class of models, a neglected alternative to the widely-known Poisson cluster models, in the analysis of fine time-scale rainfall intensity. These models are mainly used to analyse tipping-bucket raingauge data from a single site but an extension to multiple sites is illustrated which reveals the potential of this class of models to study the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation at fine time-scales.

From 'omics to otoliths: responses of an estuarine fish to endocrine disrupting compounds across biological scales.

PubMed

Brander, Susanne M; Connon, Richard E; He, Guochun; Hobbs, James A; Smalling, Kelly L; Teh, Swee J; White, J Wilson; Werner, Inge; Denison, Michael S; Cherr, Gary N

2013-01-01

Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) cause physiological abnormalities and population decline in fishes. However, few studies have linked environmental EDC exposures with responses at multiple tiers of the biological hierarchy, including population-level effects. To this end, we undertook a four-tiered investigation in the impacted San Francisco Bay estuary with the Mississippi silverside (Menidia audens), a small pelagic fish. This approach demonstrated links between different EDC sources and fish responses at different levels of biological organization. First we determined that water from a study site primarily impacted by ranch run-off had only estrogenic activity in vitro, while water sampled from a site receiving a combination of urban, limited ranch run-off, and treated wastewater effluent had both estrogenic and androgenic activity. Secondly, at the molecular level we found that fish had higher mRNA levels for estrogen-responsive genes at the site where only estrogenic activity was detected but relatively lower expression levels where both estrogenic and androgenic EDCs were detected. Thirdly, at the organism level, males at the site exposed to both estrogens and androgens had significantly lower mean gonadal somatic indices, significantly higher incidence of severe testicular necrosis and altered somatic growth relative to the site where only estrogens were detected. Finally, at the population level, the sex ratio was significantly skewed towards males at the site with measured androgenic and estrogenic activity. Our results suggest that mixtures of androgenic and estrogenic EDCs have antagonistic and potentially additive effects depending on the biological scale being assessed, and that mixtures containing androgens and estrogens may produce unexpected effects. In summary, evaluating EDC response at multiple tiers is necessary to determine the source of disruption (lowest scale, i.e. cell line) and what the ecological impact will be (largest scale, i.e. sex ratio).

Bridging Scales: A Model-Based Assessment of the Technical Tidal-Stream Energy Resource off Massachusetts, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowles, G. W.; Hakim, A.; Churchill, J. H.

2016-02-01

Tidal in-stream energy conversion (TISEC) facilities provide a highly predictable and dependable source of energy. Given the economic and social incentives to migrate towards renewable energy sources there has been tremendous interest in the technology. Key challenges to the design process stem from the wide range of problem scales extending from device to array. In the present approach we apply a multi-model approach to bridge the scales of interest and select optimal device geometries to estimate the technical resource for several realistic sites in the coastal waters of Massachusetts, USA. The approach links two computational models. To establish flow conditions at site scales ( 10m), a barotropic setup of the unstructured grid ocean model FVCOM is employed. The model is validated using shipboard and fixed ADCP as well as pressure data. For device scale, the structured multiblock flow solver SUmb is selected. A large ensemble of simulations of 2D cross-flow tidal turbines is used to construct a surrogate design model. The surrogate model is then queried using velocity profiles extracted from the tidal model to determine the optimal geometry for the conditions at each site. After device selection, the annual technical yield of the array is evaluated with FVCOM using a linear momentum actuator disk approach to model the turbines. Results for several key Massachusetts sites including comparison with theoretical approaches will be presented.

A catchment scale water balance model for FIFE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Famiglietti, J. S.; Wood, E. F.; Sivapalan, M.; Thongs, D. J.

1992-01-01

A catchment scale water balance model is presented and used to predict evaporation from the King's Creek catchment at the First ISLSCP Field Experiment site on the Konza Prairie, Kansas. The model incorporates spatial variability in topography, soils, and precipitation to compute the land surface hydrologic fluxes. A network of 20 rain gages was employed to measure rainfall across the catchment in the summer of 1987. These data were spatially interpolated and used to drive the model during storm periods. During interstorm periods the model was driven by the estimated potential evaporation, which was calculated using net radiation data collected at site 2. Model-computed evaporation is compared to that observed, both at site 2 (grid location 1916-BRS) and the catchment scale, for the simulation period from June 1 to October 9, 1987.

Multiphase modeling of geologic carbon sequestration in saline aquifers.

PubMed

Bandilla, Karl W; Celia, Michael A; Birkholzer, Jens T; Cihan, Abdullah; Leister, Evan C

2015-01-01

Geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is being considered as a climate change mitigation option in many future energy scenarios. Mathematical modeling is routinely used to predict subsurface CO2 and resident brine migration for the design of injection operations, to demonstrate the permanence of CO2 storage, and to show that other subsurface resources will not be degraded. Many processes impact the migration of CO2 and brine, including multiphase flow dynamics, geochemistry, and geomechanics, along with the spatial distribution of parameters such as porosity and permeability. In this article, we review a set of multiphase modeling approaches with different levels of conceptual complexity that have been used to model GCS. Model complexity ranges from coupled multiprocess models to simplified vertical equilibrium (VE) models and macroscopic invasion percolation models. The goal of this article is to give a framework of conceptual model complexity, and to show the types of modeling approaches that have been used to address specific GCS questions. Application of the modeling approaches is shown using five ongoing or proposed CO2 injection sites. For the selected sites, the majority of GCS models follow a simplified multiphase approach, especially for questions related to injection and local-scale heterogeneity. Coupled multiprocess models are only applied in one case where geomechanics have a strong impact on the flow. Owing to their computational efficiency, VE models tend to be applied at large scales. A macroscopic invasion percolation approach was used to predict the CO2 migration at one site to examine details of CO2 migration under the caprock. © 2015, National Ground Water Association.

Observation and modelling of urban dew

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, Katrina

Despite its relevance to many aspects of urban climate and to several practical questions, urban dew has largely been ignored. Here, simple observations an out-of-doors scale model, and numerical simulation are used to investigate patterns of dewfall and surface moisture (dew + guttation) in urban environments. Observations and modelling were undertaken in Vancouver, B.C., primarily during the summers of 1993 and 1996. Surveys at several scales (0.02-25 km) show that the main controls on dew are weather, location and site configuration (geometry and surface materials). Weather effects are discussed using an empirical factor, FW . Maximum dew accumulation (up to ~ 0.2 mm per night) is seen on nights with moist air and high FW , i.e., cloudless conditions with light winds. Favoured sites are those with high Ysky and surfaces which cool rapidly after sunset, e.g., grass and well insulated roofs. A 1/8-scale model is designed, constructed, and run at an out-of-doors site to study dew patterns in an urban residential landscape which consists of house lots, a street and an open grassed park. The Internal Thermal Mass (ITM) approach is used to scale the thermal inertia of buildings. The model is validated using data from full-scale sites in Vancouver. Patterns in the model agree with those seen at the full-scale, i.e., dew distribution is governed by weather, site geometry and substrate conditions. Correlation is shown between Ysky and surface moisture accumulation. The feasibility of using a numerical model to simulate urban dew is investigated using a modified version of a rural dew model. Results for simple isolated surfaces-a deciduous tree leaf and an asphalt shingle roof-show promise, especially for built surfaces.

Model-data fusion across ecosystems: from multisite optimizations to global simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuppel, S.; Peylin, P.; Maignan, F.; Chevallier, F.; Kiely, G.; Montagnani, L.; Cescatti, A.

2014-11-01

This study uses a variational data assimilation framework to simultaneously constrain a global ecosystem model with eddy covariance measurements of daily net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and latent heat (LE) fluxes from a large number of sites grouped in seven plant functional types (PFTs). It is an attempt to bridge the gap between the numerous site-specific parameter optimization works found in the literature and the generic parameterization used by most land surface models within each PFT. The present multisite approach allows deriving PFT-generic sets of optimized parameters enhancing the agreement between measured and simulated fluxes at most of the sites considered, with performances often comparable to those of the corresponding site-specific optimizations. Besides reducing the PFT-averaged model-data root-mean-square difference (RMSD) and the associated daily output uncertainty, the optimization improves the simulated CO2 balance at tropical and temperate forests sites. The major site-level NEE adjustments at the seasonal scale are reduced amplitude in C3 grasslands and boreal forests, increased seasonality in temperate evergreen forests, and better model-data phasing in temperate deciduous broadleaf forests. Conversely, the poorer performances in tropical evergreen broadleaf forests points to deficiencies regarding the modelling of phenology and soil water stress for this PFT. An evaluation with data-oriented estimates of photosynthesis (GPP - gross primary productivity) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) rates indicates distinctively improved simulations of both gross fluxes. The multisite parameter sets are then tested against CO2 concentrations measured at 53 locations around the globe, showing significant adjustments of the modelled seasonality of atmospheric CO2 concentration, whose relevance seems PFT-dependent, along with an improved interannual variability. Lastly, a global-scale evaluation with remote sensing NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) measurements indicates an improvement of the simulated seasonal variations of the foliar cover for all considered PFTs.

Using long-term ARM observations to evaluate Arctic mixed-phased cloud representation in the GISS ModelE GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamer, K.; Fridlind, A. M.; Luke, E. P.; Tselioudis, G.; Ackerman, A. S.; Kollias, P.; Clothiaux, E. E.

2016-12-01

The presence of supercooled liquid in clouds affects surface radiative and hydrological budgets, especially at high latitudes. Capturing these effects is crucial to properly quantifying climate sensitivity. Currently, a number of CGMs disagree on the distribution of cloud phase. Adding to the challenge is a general lack of observations on the continuum of clouds, from high to low-level and from warm to cold. In the current study, continuous observations from 2011 to 2014 are used to evaluate all clouds produced by the GISS ModelE GCM over the ARM North Slope of Alaska site. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Global Weather State (GWS) approach reveals that fair-weather (GWS 7, 32% occurrence rate), as well as mid-level storm related (GWS 5, 28%) and polar (GWS 4, 14%) clouds, dominate the large-scale cloud patterns at this high latitude site. At higher spatial and temporal resolutions, ground-based cloud radar observations reveal a majority of single layer cloud vertical structures (CVS). While clear sky and low-level clouds dominate (each with 30% occurrence rate) a fair amount of shallow ( 10%) to deep ( 5%) convection are observed. Cloud radar Doppler spectra are used along with depolarization lidar observations in a neural network approach to detect the presence, layering and inhomogeneity of supercooled liquid layers. Preliminary analyses indicate that most of the low-level clouds sampled contain one or more supercooled liquid layers. Furthermore, the relationship between CVS and the presence of supercooled liquid is established, as is the relationship between the presence of supercool liquid and precipitation susceptibility. Two approaches are explored to bridge the gap between large footprint GCM simulations and high-resolution ground-based observations. The first approach consists of comparing model output and ground-based observations that exhibit the same column CVS type (i.e. same cloud depth, height and layering). Alternatively, the second approach consists of comparing model output and ground-based observations that exhibit the same large-scale GWS type (i.e. same cloud top pressure and optical depth patterns) where ground-based observations are associated to large-scale GWS every 3 hours using the closest satellite overpass.

Plants and pixels: Comparing phenologies from the ground and from space (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutishauser, T.; Stoekli, R.; Jeanneret, F.; Peñuelas, J.

2010-12-01

Changes in the seasonality of life cycles of plants as recorded in phenological observations have been widely analysed at the species level with data available for many decades back in time. At the same time, seasonality changes in satellite-based observations and prognostic phenology models comprise information at the pixel-size or landscape scale. Change analysis of satellite-based records is restricted due to relatively short satellite records that further include gaps while model-based analyses are biased due to current model deficiencies. At 30 selected sites across Europe, we analysed three different sources of plant seasonality during the 1971-2000 period. Data consisted of (1) species-specific development stages of flowering and leave-out with different species observed at each site. (2) We used a synthetic phenological metric that integrates the common interannual phenological signal across all species at one site. (3) We estimated daily Leaf Area Index with a prognostic phenology model. The prior uncertainties of the model’s empirical parameter space are constrained by assimilating the Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We extracted the day of year when the 25%, 50% and 75% thresholds were passed each spring. The question arises how the three phenological signals compare and correlate across climate zones in Europe. Is there a match between single species observations, species-based ground-observed metrics and the landscape-scale prognostic model? Are there single key-species across Europe that best represent a landscape scale measure from the prognostic model? Can one source substitute another and serve as proxy-data? What can we learn from potential mismatches? Focusing on changes in spring this contribution presents first results of an ongoing comparison study from a number of European test sites that will be extended to the pan-European phenological database Cost725 and PEP725.

Creative use of pilot points to address site and regional scale heterogeneity in a variable-density model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dausman, Alyssa M.; Doherty, John; Langevin, Christian D.

2010-01-01

Pilot points for parameter estimation were creatively used to address heterogeneity at both the well field and regional scales in a variable-density groundwater flow and solute transport model designed to test multiple hypotheses for upward migration of fresh effluent injected into a highly transmissive saline carbonate aquifer. Two sets of pilot points were used within in multiple model layers, with one set of inner pilot points (totaling 158) having high spatial density to represent hydraulic conductivity at the site, while a second set of outer points (totaling 36) of lower spatial density was used to represent hydraulic conductivity further from the site. Use of a lower spatial density outside the site allowed (1) the total number of pilot points to be reduced while maintaining flexibility to accommodate heterogeneity at different scales, and (2) development of a model with greater areal extent in order to simulate proper boundary conditions that have a limited effect on the area of interest. The parameters associated with the inner pilot points were log transformed hydraulic conductivity multipliers of the conductivity field obtained by interpolation from outer pilot points. The use of this dual inner-outer scale parameterization (with inner parameters constituting multipliers for outer parameters) allowed smooth transition of hydraulic conductivity from the site scale, where greater spatial variability of hydraulic properties exists, to the regional scale where less spatial variability was necessary for model calibration. While the model is highly parameterized to accommodate potential aquifer heterogeneity, the total number of pilot points is kept at a minimum to enable reasonable calibration run times.

The Impact of Truth Surrogate Variance on Quality Assessment/Assurance in Wind Tunnel Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLoach, Richard

2016-01-01

Minimum data volume requirements for wind tunnel testing are reviewed and shown to depend on error tolerance, response model complexity, random error variance in the measurement environment, and maximum acceptable levels of inference error risk. Distinctions are made between such related concepts as quality assurance and quality assessment in response surface modeling, as well as between precision and accuracy. Earlier research on the scaling of wind tunnel tests is extended to account for variance in the truth surrogates used at confirmation sites in the design space to validate proposed response models. A model adequacy metric is presented that represents the fraction of the design space within which model predictions can be expected to satisfy prescribed quality specifications. The impact of inference error on the assessment of response model residuals is reviewed. The number of sites where reasonably well-fitted response models actually predict inadequately is shown to be considerably less than the number of sites where residuals are out of tolerance. The significance of such inference error effects on common response model assessment strategies is examined.

Geologic uncertainty in a regulatory environment: An example from the potential Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rautman, C. A.; Treadway, A. H.

1991-11-01

Regulatory geologists are concerned with predicting the performance of sites proposed for waste disposal or for remediation of existing pollution problems. Geologic modeling of these sites requires large-scale expansion of knowledge obtained from very limited sampling. This expansion induces considerable uncertainty into the geologic models of rock properties that are required for modeling the predicted performance of the site. One method for assessing this uncertainty is through nonparametric geostatistical simulation. Simulation can produce a series of equiprobable models of a rock property of interest. Each model honors measured values at sampled locations, and each can be constructed to emulate both the univariate histogram and the spatial covariance structure of the measured data. Computing a performance model for a number of geologic simulations allows evaluation of the effects of geologic uncertainty. A site may be judged acceptable if the number of failures to meet a particular performance criterion produced by these computations is sufficiently low. A site that produces too many failures may be either unacceptable or simply inadequately described. The simulation approach to addressing geologic uncertainty is being applied to the potential high-level nuclear waste repository site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. Preliminary geologic models of unsaturated permeability have been created that reproduce observed statistical properties reasonably well. A spread of unsaturated groundwater travel times has been computed that reflects the variability of those geologic models. Regions within the simulated models exhibiting the greatest variability among multiple runs are candidates for obtaining the greatest reduction in uncertainty through additional site characterization.

Site-level habitat models for the endemic, threatened Cheat Mountain salamander (Plethodon nettingi): the importance of geophysical and biotic attributes for predicting occurrence

Treesearch

Lester O. Dillard; Kevin R. Russell; W. Mark Ford

2008-01-01

The federally threatened Cheat Mountain salamander (Plethodon nettingi; hereafter CMS) is known to occur in approximately 70 small, scattered populations in the Allegheny Mountains of eastern West Virginia, USA. Current conservation and management efforts on federal, state, and private lands involving CMS largely rely on small scale, largely...

Explanatory Power of Multi-scale Physical Descriptors in Modeling Benthic Indices Across Nested Ecoregions of the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holburn, E. R.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Poff, N. L.; Cuhaciyan, C. O.

2005-05-01

Using over 300 R/EMAP sites in OR and WA, we examine the relative explanatory power of watershed, valley, and reach scale descriptors in modeling variation in benthic macroinvertebrate indices. Innovative metrics describing flow regime, geomorphic processes, and hydrologic-distance weighted watershed and valley characteristics are used in multiple regression and regression tree modeling to predict EPT richness, % EPT, EPT/C, and % Plecoptera. A nested design using seven ecoregions is employed to evaluate the influence of geographic scale and environmental heterogeneity on the explanatory power of individual and combined scales. Regression tree models are constructed to explain variability while identifying threshold responses and interactions. Cross-validated models demonstrate differences in the explanatory power associated with single-scale and multi-scale models as environmental heterogeneity is varied. Models explaining the greatest variability in biological indices result from multi-scale combinations of physical descriptors. Results also indicate that substantial variation in benthic macroinvertebrate response can be explained with process-based watershed and valley scale metrics derived exclusively from common geospatial data. This study outlines a general framework for identifying key processes driving macroinvertebrate assemblages across a range of scales and establishing the geographic extent at which various levels of physical description best explain biological variability. Such information can guide process-based stratification to avoid spurious comparison of dissimilar stream types in bioassessments and ensure that key environmental gradients are adequately represented in sampling designs.

Indirect effects of overfishing on Caribbean reefs: sponges overgrow reef-building corals

PubMed Central

Loh, Tse-Lynn; McMurray, Steven E.; Henkel, Timothy P.; Vicente, Jan

2015-01-01

Consumer-mediated indirect effects at the community level are difficult to demonstrate empirically. Here, we show an explicit indirect effect of overfishing on competition between sponges and reef-building corals from surveys of 69 sites across the Caribbean. Leveraging the large-scale, long-term removal of sponge predators, we selected overfished sites where intensive methods, primarily fish-trapping, have been employed for decades or more, and compared them to sites in remote or marine protected areas (MPAs) with variable levels of enforcement. Sponge-eating fishes (angelfishes and parrotfishes) were counted at each site, and the benthos surveyed, with coral colonies scored for interaction with sponges. Overfished sites had >3 fold more overgrowth of corals by sponges, and mean coral contact with sponges was 25.6%, compared with 12.0% at less-fished sites. Greater contact with corals by sponges at overfished sites was mostly by sponge species palatable to sponge predators. Palatable species have faster rates of growth or reproduction than defended sponge species, which instead make metabolically expensive chemical defenses. These results validate the top-down conceptual model of sponge community ecology for Caribbean reefs, as well as provide an unambiguous justification for MPAs to protect threatened reef-building corals. An unanticipated outcome of the benthic survey component of this study was that overfished sites had lower mean macroalgal cover (23.1% vs. 38.1% for less-fished sites), a result that is contrary to prevailing assumptions about seaweed control by herbivorous fishes. Because we did not quantify herbivores for this study, we interpret this result with caution, but suggest that additional large-scale studies comparing intensively overfished and MPA sites are warranted to examine the relative impacts of herbivorous fishes and urchins on Caribbean reefs. PMID:25945305

Indirect effects of overfishing on Caribbean reefs: sponges overgrow reef-building corals.

PubMed

Loh, Tse-Lynn; McMurray, Steven E; Henkel, Timothy P; Vicente, Jan; Pawlik, Joseph R

2015-01-01

Consumer-mediated indirect effects at the community level are difficult to demonstrate empirically. Here, we show an explicit indirect effect of overfishing on competition between sponges and reef-building corals from surveys of 69 sites across the Caribbean. Leveraging the large-scale, long-term removal of sponge predators, we selected overfished sites where intensive methods, primarily fish-trapping, have been employed for decades or more, and compared them to sites in remote or marine protected areas (MPAs) with variable levels of enforcement. Sponge-eating fishes (angelfishes and parrotfishes) were counted at each site, and the benthos surveyed, with coral colonies scored for interaction with sponges. Overfished sites had >3 fold more overgrowth of corals by sponges, and mean coral contact with sponges was 25.6%, compared with 12.0% at less-fished sites. Greater contact with corals by sponges at overfished sites was mostly by sponge species palatable to sponge predators. Palatable species have faster rates of growth or reproduction than defended sponge species, which instead make metabolically expensive chemical defenses. These results validate the top-down conceptual model of sponge community ecology for Caribbean reefs, as well as provide an unambiguous justification for MPAs to protect threatened reef-building corals. An unanticipated outcome of the benthic survey component of this study was that overfished sites had lower mean macroalgal cover (23.1% vs. 38.1% for less-fished sites), a result that is contrary to prevailing assumptions about seaweed control by herbivorous fishes. Because we did not quantify herbivores for this study, we interpret this result with caution, but suggest that additional large-scale studies comparing intensively overfished and MPA sites are warranted to examine the relative impacts of herbivorous fishes and urchins on Caribbean reefs.

Texas Water Observatory: A platform for landscape-level assessment of human and natural water uses, productivity, carbon sequestration, and other ecosystem services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaimes, A.; Gaur, N.; Moore, G. W.; Miller, G. R.; Morgan, C.; Everett, M. E.; Noormets, A.; Mohanty, B.

2017-12-01

The increasing temperature, and growing variability and intensity of precipitation events have strained the water supplies of several metropolitan areas in the Southern USA. The need for better system-level understanding and data-based planning tools to support the needs of 50 million habitants of Texas and the Gulf States led the establishment of Texas Water Observatory (TWO; http://two.tamu.edu/sites.aspx) in 2015. Using the Brazos River watershed as a model system, encompassing land cover types from agricultural and pasture lands to forest, savannah, and wetland systems, TWO is designed to develop comprehensive understanding of hydrological and biogeochemical processes at not only ecosystem scale, but of their spatially explicit interconnections in the landscape. In the current report, we will report the first year of ecosystem-scale fluxes of water and CO2 from the different nine sites, and discuss the regional implications of their environmental sensitivities.

Implications of two Holocene time-dependent geomagnetic models for cosmogenic nuclide production rate scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifton, Nathaniel

2016-01-01

The geomagnetic field is a major influence on in situ cosmogenic nuclide production rates at a given location (in addition to atmospheric pressure and, to a lesser extent, solar modulation effects). A better understanding of how past fluctuations in these influences affected production rates should allow more accurate application of cosmogenic nuclides. As such, this work explores the cosmogenic nuclide production rate scaling implications of two recent time-dependent spherical harmonic geomagnetic models spanning the Holocene. Korte and Constable (2011, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter.188, 247-259) and Korte et al. (2011, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 312, 497-505) recently updated earlier spherical harmonic paleomagnetic models with new paleomagnetic data from sediment cores in addition to new archeomagnetic and volcanic data. These updated models offer improved resolution and accuracy over the previous versions, in part due to increased temporal and spatial data coverage. In addition, Pavón-Carrasco et al. (2014, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 388, 98-109) developed another time-dependent spherical harmonic model of the Holocene geomagnetic field, based solely on archeomagnetic and volcanic paleomagnetic data from the same underlying paleomagnetic database as the Korte et al. models, but extending to 14 ka. With the new models as input, trajectory-traced estimates of effective vertical cutoff rigidity (RC - the standard method for ordering cosmic ray data) yield significantly different time-integrated scaling predictions when compared to each other and to results using the earlier models. In addition, predictions of each new model using RC are tested empirically using recently published production rate calibration data for both 10Be and 3He, and compared to predictions using corresponding time-varying geocentric dipolar RC formulations and a static geocentric axial dipole (GAD) model. Results for the few calibration sites from geomagnetically sensitive regions suggest that the Pavón-Carrasco et al. (2014) time-varying dipolar model tends to predict sea level, high latitude production rates more in line with those from calibration sites not affected by geomagnetic variations. This suggests that uncertainties arising from hemispheric and temporal sampling biases in the Holocene spherical harmonic models considered here, combined with the currently limited spatial and temporal distribution of production rate calibration sites as empirical tests, limit the robustness of the non-dipole aspects of these models for production rate scaling. These analyses should be revisited as such models improve and additional calibration sites become available.

The bacterial composition within the Sarracenia purpurea model system: local scale differences and the relationship with the other members of the food web.

PubMed

Gray, Sarah M; Akob, Denise M; Green, Stefan J; Kostka, Joel E

2012-01-01

The leaves of the carnivorous pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea, contain a microscopic aquatic food web that is considered a model system in ecological research. The species identity of the intermediate and top trophic level of this food web, as well the detritivore midge, are highly similar across the native geographic range of S. purpurea and, in some cases, appear to have co-evolved with the plant. However, until recently, the identity, geographic variation, and diversity of the bacteria in the bottom trophic level of this food web have remained largely unknown. This study investigated bacterial community composition inside the leaves of S. purpurea to address: 1) variation in bacterial communities at the beginning of succession at the local scale in different areas of the plant's native geographic range (southern and mid-regional sites) and 2) the impacts of bacterial consumers and other members of the aquatic food web (i.e., insects) on bacterial community structure. Communities from six leaves (one leaf per plant) from New York and Florida study sites were analyzed using 16S ribosomal RNA gene cloning. Each pitcher within each site had a distinct community; however, there was more overlap in bacterial composition within each site than when communities were compared across sites. In contrast, the identity of protozoans and metazoans in this community were similar in species identity both within a site and between the two sites, but abundances differed. Our results indicate that, at least during the beginning of succession, there is no strong selection for bacterial taxa and that there is no core group of bacteria required by the plant to start the decomposition of trapped insects. Co-evolution between the plant and bacteria appears to not have occurred as it has for other members of this community.

The Bacterial Composition within the Sarracenia purpurea Model System: Local Scale Differences and the Relationship with the Other Members of the Food Web

PubMed Central

Gray, Sarah M.; Akob, Denise M.; Green, Stefan J.; Kostka, Joel E.

2012-01-01

The leaves of the carnivorous pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea, contain a microscopic aquatic food web that is considered a model system in ecological research. The species identity of the intermediate and top trophic level of this food web, as well the detritivore midge, are highly similar across the native geographic range of S. purpurea and, in some cases, appear to have co-evolved with the plant. However, until recently, the identity, geographic variation, and diversity of the bacteria in the bottom trophic level of this food web have remained largely unknown. This study investigated bacterial community composition inside the leaves of S. purpurea to address: 1) variation in bacterial communities at the beginning of succession at the local scale in different areas of the plant’s native geographic range (southern and mid-regional sites) and 2) the impacts of bacterial consumers and other members of the aquatic food web (i.e., insects) on bacterial community structure. Communities from six leaves (one leaf per plant) from New York and Florida study sites were analyzed using 16S ribosomal RNA gene cloning. Each pitcher within each site had a distinct community; however, there was more overlap in bacterial composition within each site than when communities were compared across sites. In contrast, the identity of protozoans and metazoans in this community were similar in species identity both within a site and between the two sites, but abundances differed. Our results indicate that, at least during the beginning of succession, there is no strong selection for bacterial taxa and that there is no core group of bacteria required by the plant to start the decomposition of trapped insects. Co-evolution between the plant and bacteria appears to not have occurred as it has for other members of this community. PMID:23227224

Near-infrared spectrometry allows fast and extensive predictions of functional traits from dry leaves and branches.

PubMed

Costa, Flávia R C; Lang, Carla; Almeida, Danilo R A; Castilho, Carolina V; Poorter, Lourens

2018-05-16

The linking of individual functional traits to ecosystem processes is the basis for making generalizations in ecology, but the measurement of individual values is laborious and time consuming, preventing large-scale trait mapping. Also, in hyper-diverse systems, errors occur because identification is difficult, and species level values ignore intra-specific variation. To allow extensive trait mapping at the individual level, we evaluated the potential of Fourrier-Transformed Near Infra-Red Spectrometry (FT-NIR) to adequately describe 14 traits that are key for plant carbon, water, and nutrient balance. FT-NIR absorption spectra (1,000-2,500 nm) were obtained from dry leaves and branches of 1,324 trees of 432 species from a hyper-diverse Amazonian forest. FT-NIR spectra were related to measured traits for the same plants using partial least squares regressions. A further 80 plants were collected from a different site to evaluate model applicability across sites. Relative prediction error (RMSE rel ) was calculated as the percentage of the trait value range represented by the final model RMSE. The key traits used in most functional trait studies; specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, wood density and wood dry matter content can be well predicted by the model (R 2  = 0.69-0.78, RMSE rel  = 9-11%), while leaf density, xylem proportion, bark density and bark dry matter content can be moderately well predicted (R 2  = 0.53-0.61, RMSE rel  = 14-17%). Community-weighted means of all traits were well estimated with NIR, as did the shape of the frequency distribution of the community values for the above key traits. The model developed at the core site provided good estimations of the key traits of a different site. An evaluation of the sampling effort indicated that 400 or less individuals may be sufficient for establishing a good local model. We conclude that FT-NIR is an easy, fast and cheap method for the large-scale estimation of individual plant traits that was previously impossible. The ability to use dry intact leaves and branches unlocks the potential for using herbarium material to estimate functional traits; thus advancing our knowledge of community and ecosystem functioning from local to global scales. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Linking landscape characteristics to mineral site use by band-tailed pigeons in Western Oregon: Coarse-filter conservation with fine-filter tuning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Overton, C.T.; Schmitz, R.A.; Casazza, Michael L.

2006-01-01

Mineral sites are scarce resources of high ion concentration used heavily by the Pacific Coast subpopulation of band-tailed pigeons. Over 20% of all known mineral sites used by band-tailed pigeons in western Oregon, including all hot springs, have been abandoned. Prior investigations have not analyzed stand or landscape level habitat composition in relation to band-tailed pigeon use of mineral sites. We used logistic regression models to evaluate the influence of habitat types, identified from Gap Analysis Program (GAP) products at two spatial scales, on the odds of mineral site use in Oregon (n = 69 currently used and 20 historically used). Our results indicated that the odds of current use were negatively associated with non-forested terrestrial and private land area around mineral sites. Similarly, the odds of current mineral site use were positively associated with forested and special status (GAP stewardship codes 1 and 2) land area. The most important variable associated with the odds of mineral site use was the amount of non-forested land cover at either spatial scale. Our results demonstrate the utility of meso-scale geographic information designed for regional, coarse-filter approaches to conservation in fine-filter investigation of wildlife-habitat relationships. Adjacent landcover and ownership status explain the pattern of use for known mineral sites in western Oregon. In order for conservation and management activities for band-tailed pigeons to be successful, mineral sites need to be addressed as important and vulnerable resources. Management of band-tailed pigeons should incorporate the potential for forest management activities and land ownership patterns to influence the risk of mineral site abandonment.

Tidal marsh susceptibility to sea-level rise: importance of local-scale models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Elliott-Fisk, Deborah L.; Takekawa, John Y.

2015-01-01

Increasing concern over sea-level rise impacts to coastal tidal marsh ecosystems has led to modeling efforts to anticipate outcomes for resource management decision making. Few studies on the Pacific coast of North America have modeled sea-level rise marsh susceptibility at a scale relevant to local wildlife populations and plant communities. Here, we use a novel approach in developing an empirical sea-level rise ecological response model that can be applied to key management questions. Calculated elevation change over 13 y for a 324-ha portion of San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California, USA, was used to represent local accretion and subsidence processes. Next, we coupled detailed plant community and elevation surveys with measured rates of inundation frequency to model marsh state changes to 2100. By grouping plant communities into low, mid, and high marsh habitats, we were able to assess wildlife species vulnerability and to better understand outcomes for habitat resiliency. Starting study-site conditions were comprised of 78% (253-ha) high marsh, 7% (30-ha) mid marsh, and 4% (18-ha) low marsh habitats, dominated by pickleweed Sarcocornia pacifica and cordgrass Spartina spp. Only under the low sea-level rise scenario (44 cm by 2100) did our models show persistence of some marsh habitats to 2100, with the area dominated by low marsh habitats. Under mid (93 cm by 2100) and high sea-level rise scenarios (166 cm by 2100), most mid and high marsh habitat was lost by 2070, with only 15% (65 ha) remaining, and a complete loss of these habitats by 2080. Low marsh habitat increased temporarily under all three sea-level rise scenarios, with the peak (286 ha) in 2070, adding habitat for the endemic endangered California Ridgway’s rail Rallus obsoletus obsoletus. Under mid and high sea-level rise scenarios, an almost complete conversion to mudflat occurred, with most of the area below mean sea level. Our modeling assumed no marsh migration upslope due to human levee and infrastructure preventing these types of processes. Other modeling efforts done for this area have projected marsh persistence to 2100, but our modeling effort with site-specific datasets allowed us to model at a finer resolution with much higher local confidence, resulting in different results for management. Our results suggest that projected sea-level rise will have significant impacts on marsh plant communities and obligate wildlife, including those already under federal and state protection. Comprehensive modeling as done here improves the potential to implement adaptive management strategies and prevent marsh habitat and wildlife loss in the future.

The impact of green stormwater infrastructure installation on surrounding health and safety.

PubMed

Kondo, Michelle C; Low, Sarah C; Henning, Jason; Branas, Charles C

2015-03-01

We investigated the health and safety effects of urban green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) installments. We conducted a difference-in-differences analysis of the effects of GSI installments on health (e.g., blood pressure, cholesterol and stress levels) and safety (e.g., felonies, nuisance and property crimes, narcotics crimes) outcomes from 2000 to 2012 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. We used mixed-effects regression models to compare differences in pre- and posttreatment measures of outcomes for treatment sites (n=52) and randomly chosen, matched control sites (n=186) within multiple geographic extents surrounding GSI sites. Regression-adjusted models showed consistent and statistically significant reductions in narcotics possession (18%-27% less) within 16th-mile, quarter-mile, half-mile (P<.001), and eighth-mile (P<.01) distances from treatment sites and at the census tract level (P<.01). Narcotics manufacture and burglaries were also significantly reduced at multiple scales. Nonsignificant reductions in homicides, assaults, thefts, public drunkenness, and narcotics sales were associated with GSI installation in at least 1 geographic extent. Health and safety considerations should be included in future assessments of GSI programs. Subsequent studies should assess mechanisms of this association.

The Impact of Green Stormwater Infrastructure Installation on Surrounding Health and Safety

PubMed Central

Low, Sarah C.; Henning, Jason; Branas, Charles C.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We investigated the health and safety effects of urban green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) installments. Methods. We conducted a difference-in-differences analysis of the effects of GSI installments on health (e.g., blood pressure, cholesterol and stress levels) and safety (e.g., felonies, nuisance and property crimes, narcotics crimes) outcomes from 2000 to 2012 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. We used mixed-effects regression models to compare differences in pre- and posttreatment measures of outcomes for treatment sites (n = 52) and randomly chosen, matched control sites (n = 186) within multiple geographic extents surrounding GSI sites. Results. Regression-adjusted models showed consistent and statistically significant reductions in narcotics possession (18%–27% less) within 16th-mile, quarter-mile, half-mile (P < .001), and eighth-mile (P < .01) distances from treatment sites and at the census tract level (P < .01). Narcotics manufacture and burglaries were also significantly reduced at multiple scales. Nonsignificant reductions in homicides, assaults, thefts, public drunkenness, and narcotics sales were associated with GSI installation in at least 1 geographic extent. Conclusions. Health and safety considerations should be included in future assessments of GSI programs. Subsequent studies should assess mechanisms of this association. PMID:25602887

Exploring the importance of within-canopy spatial temperature variation on transpiration predictions

PubMed Central

Bauerle, William L.; Bowden, Joseph D.; Wang, G. Geoff; Shahba, Mohamed A.

2009-01-01

Models seldom consider the effect of leaf-level biochemical acclimation to temperature when scaling forest water use. Therefore, the dependence of transpiration on temperature acclimation was investigated at the within-crown scale in climatically contrasting genotypes of Acer rubrum L., cv. October Glory (OG) and Summer Red (SR). The effects of temperature acclimation on intracanopy gradients in transpiration over a range of realistic forest growth temperatures were also assessed by simulation. Physiological parameters were applied, with or without adjustment for temperature acclimation, to account for transpiration responses to growth temperature. Both types of parameterization were scaled up to stand transpiration (expressed per unit leaf area) with an individual tree model (MAESTRA) to assess how transpiration might be affected by spatial and temporal distributions of foliage properties. The MAESTRA model performed well, but its reproducibility was dependent on physiological parameters acclimated to daytime temperature. Concordance correlation coefficients between measured and predicted transpiration were higher (0.95 and 0.98 versus 0.87 and 0.96) when model parameters reflected acclimated growth temperature. In response to temperature increases, the southern genotype (SR) transpiration responded more than the northern (OG). Conditions of elevated long-term temperature acclimation further separate their transpiration differences. Results demonstrate the importance of accounting for leaf-level physiological adjustments that are sensitive to microclimate changes and the use of provenance-, ecotype-, and/or genotype-specific parameter sets, two components likely to improve the accuracy of site-level and ecosystem-level estimates of transpiration flux. PMID:19561047

Optimal-adaptive filters for modelling spectral shape, site amplification, and source scaling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safak, Erdal

1989-01-01

This paper introduces some applications of optimal filtering techniques to earthquake engineering by using the so-called ARMAX models. Three applications are presented: (a) spectral modelling of ground accelerations, (b) site amplification (i.e., the relationship between two records obtained at different sites during an earthquake), and (c) source scaling (i.e., the relationship between two records obtained at a site during two different earthquakes). A numerical example for each application is presented by using recorded ground motions. The results show that the optimal filtering techniques provide elegant solutions to above problems, and can be a useful tool in earthquake engineering.

The Race to Nourish: Exploring resource equity in a coupled human coastline model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Z. C.; McNamara, D.; Murray, A.; Smith, M.

2011-12-01

Many coastal communities are faced with eroding shorelines due to gradients in the alongshore transport of sediment and rising sea level. These communities often employ a beach nourishment mitigation strategy to counter erosion from natural forces. These nourishment activities provide economic benefits in the form of protection from storms and enhanced recreation on the stabilized beach. Previous work has shown that economically optimal nourishment decisions indicate that rising nourishment costs can lead to more frequent nourishment. Given that the cost of nourishing is likely to rise as offshore sediment borrow sites become more scarce, this suggests a positive feedback whereby nourishment that dwindles offshore borrow sites causes more frequent nourishment. We explore the dynamics of this feedback in a coupled economic-coastline model and how resulting long term shoreline and economic patterns respond to forcing changes in the form of increased sea level rise and changing storminess along both a straight shoreline and a cuspate Carolina like shoreline. The economic model utilizes myopic manager agents that inform a community of the optimal nourishment interval based on the current cost of sand and locally observed erosion rate since the last nourishment episode. Communities nourish independently but can affect the erosion rate of adjacent communities through alongshore sediment transport dynamics. The coastline model tracks large-scale coastline change via alongshore sediment transport calculations and erosion due to rising sea level. Model experiments show that when the economic model is coupled to a flat coastline, the feedback in sand cost leads to resource inequity as communities that become caught in the feedback nourish frequently while adjacent communities maintain coastline position by "free riding" on these neighbor towns. Model experiments also show that on cuspate coastlines, the emergent cuspate features enhance the cost feedback and create unequal resource distributions similar to flat coastlines but in locations pre-determined by large-scale patterns of erosion associated with the cuspate features. As wave climates change, communities that are already caught in a nourishment feedback, are not able to adjust their behavior to the new wave climate. This hysteresis effect in nourishment suggests the need for large-spatial-scale management of coastlines to achieve resource equity.

Taking ART to Scale: Determinants of the Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of Antiretroviral Therapy in 45 Clinical Sites in Zambia

PubMed Central

Marseille, Elliot; Giganti, Mark J.; Mwango, Albert; Chisembele-Taylor, Angela; Mulenga, Lloyd; Over, Mead; Kahn, James G.; Stringer, Jeffrey S. A.

2012-01-01

Background We estimated the unit costs and cost-effectiveness of a government ART program in 45 sites in Zambia supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research Zambia (CIDRZ). Methods We estimated per person-year costs at the facility level, and support costs incurred above the facility level and used multiple regression to estimate variation in these costs. To estimate ART effectiveness, we compared mortality in this Zambian population to that of a cohort of rural Ugandan HIV patients receiving co-trimoxazole (CTX) prophylaxis. We used micro-costing techniques to estimate incremental unit costs, and calculated cost-effectiveness ratios with a computer model which projected results to 10 years. Results The program cost $69.7 million for 125,436 person-years of ART, or $556 per ART-year. Compared to CTX prophylaxis alone, the program averted 33.3 deaths or 244.5 disability adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 person-years of ART. In the base-case analysis, the net cost per DALY averted was $833 compared to CTX alone. More than two-thirds of the variation in average incremental total and on-site cost per patient-year of treatment is explained by eight determinants, including the complexity of the patient-case load, the degree of adherence among the patients, and institutional characteristics including, experience, scale, scope, setting and sector. Conclusions and Significance The 45 sites exhibited substantial variation in unit costs and cost-effectiveness and are in the mid-range of cost-effectiveness when compared to other ART programs studied in southern Africa. Early treatment initiation, large scale, and hospital setting, are associated with statistically significantly lower costs, while others (rural location, private sector) are associated with shifting cost from on- to off-site. This study shows that ART programs can be significantly less costly or more cost-effective when they exploit economies of scale and scope, and initiate patients at higher CD4 counts. PMID:23284843

Taking ART to scale: determinants of the cost and cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy in 45 clinical sites in Zambia.

PubMed

Marseille, Elliot; Giganti, Mark J; Mwango, Albert; Chisembele-Taylor, Angela; Mulenga, Lloyd; Over, Mead; Kahn, James G; Stringer, Jeffrey S A

2012-01-01

We estimated the unit costs and cost-effectiveness of a government ART program in 45 sites in Zambia supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research Zambia (CIDRZ). We estimated per person-year costs at the facility level, and support costs incurred above the facility level and used multiple regression to estimate variation in these costs. To estimate ART effectiveness, we compared mortality in this Zambian population to that of a cohort of rural Ugandan HIV patients receiving co-trimoxazole (CTX) prophylaxis. We used micro-costing techniques to estimate incremental unit costs, and calculated cost-effectiveness ratios with a computer model which projected results to 10 years. The program cost $69.7 million for 125,436 person-years of ART, or $556 per ART-year. Compared to CTX prophylaxis alone, the program averted 33.3 deaths or 244.5 disability adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 person-years of ART. In the base-case analysis, the net cost per DALY averted was $833 compared to CTX alone. More than two-thirds of the variation in average incremental total and on-site cost per patient-year of treatment is explained by eight determinants, including the complexity of the patient-case load, the degree of adherence among the patients, and institutional characteristics including, experience, scale, scope, setting and sector. The 45 sites exhibited substantial variation in unit costs and cost-effectiveness and are in the mid-range of cost-effectiveness when compared to other ART programs studied in southern Africa. Early treatment initiation, large scale, and hospital setting, are associated with statistically significantly lower costs, while others (rural location, private sector) are associated with shifting cost from on- to off-site. This study shows that ART programs can be significantly less costly or more cost-effective when they exploit economies of scale and scope, and initiate patients at higher CD4 counts.

Mass discharge estimation from contaminated sites: Multi-model solutions for assessment of conceptual uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomsen, N. I.; Troldborg, M.; McKnight, U. S.; Binning, P. J.; Bjerg, P. L.

2012-04-01

Mass discharge estimates are increasingly being used in the management of contaminated sites. Such estimates have proven useful for supporting decisions related to the prioritization of contaminated sites in a groundwater catchment. Potential management options can be categorised as follows: (1) leave as is, (2) clean up, or (3) further investigation needed. However, mass discharge estimates are often very uncertain, which may hamper the management decisions. If option 1 is incorrectly chosen soil and water quality will decrease, threatening or destroying drinking water resources. The risk of choosing option 2 is to spend money on remediating a site that does not pose a problem. Choosing option 3 will often be safest, but may not be the optimal economic solution. Quantification of the uncertainty in mass discharge estimates can therefore greatly improve the foundation for selecting the appropriate management option. The uncertainty of mass discharge estimates depends greatly on the extent of the site characterization. A good approach for uncertainty estimation will be flexible with respect to the investigation level, and account for both parameter and conceptual model uncertainty. We propose a method for quantifying the uncertainty of dynamic mass discharge estimates from contaminant point sources on the local scale. The method considers both parameter and conceptual uncertainty through a multi-model approach. The multi-model approach evaluates multiple conceptual models for the same site. The different conceptual models consider different source characterizations and hydrogeological descriptions. The idea is to include a set of essentially different conceptual models where each model is believed to be realistic representation of the given site, based on the current level of information. Parameter uncertainty is quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. For each conceptual model we calculate a transient mass discharge estimate with uncertainty bounds resulting from the parametric uncertainty. To quantify the conceptual uncertainty from a given site, we combine the outputs from the different conceptual models using Bayesian model averaging. The weight for each model is obtained by integrating available data and expert knowledge using Bayesian belief networks. The multi-model approach is applied to a contaminated site. At the site a DNAPL (dense non aqueous phase liquid) spill consisting of PCE (perchloroethylene) has contaminated a fractured clay till aquitard overlaying a limestone aquifer. The exact shape and nature of the source is unknown and so is the importance of transport in the fractures. The result of the multi-model approach is a visual representation of the uncertainty of the mass discharge estimates for the site which can be used to support the management options.

Can biomass responses to warming at plant to ecosystem levels be predicted by leaf-level responses?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, J.; Shao, J.; Zhou, X.; Yan, W.; Lu, M.

2015-12-01

Global warming has the profound impacts on terrestrial C processes from leaf to ecosystem scales, potentially feeding back to climate dynamics. Although numerous studies had investigated the effects of warming on C processes from leaf to plant and ecosystem levels, how leaf-level responses to warming scale up to biomass responses at plant, population, and community levels are largely unknown. In this study, we compiled a dataset from 468 papers at 300 experimental sites and synthesized the warming effects on leaf-level parameters, and plant, population and ecosystem biomass. Our results showed that responses of plant biomass to warming mainly resulted from the changed leaf area rather than the altered photosynthetic capacity. The response of ecosystem biomass to warming was weaker than those of leaf area and plant biomass. However, the scaling functions from responses of leaf area to plant biomass to warming were different in diverse forest types, but functions were similar in non-forested biomes. In addition, it is challenging to scale the biomass responses from plant up to ecosystem. These results indicated that leaf area might be the appropriate index for plant biomass response to warming, and the interspecific competition might hamper the scaling of the warming effects on plant and ecosystem levels, suggesting that the acclimation capacity of plant community should be incorporated into land surface models to improve the prediction of climate-C cycle feedback.

Multiscale Processes in Magnetic Reconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surjalal Sharma, A.; Jain, Neeraj

The characteristic scales of the plasma processes in magnetic reconnection range from the elec-tron skin-depth to the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) scale, and cross-scale coupling among them play a key role. Modeling these processes requires different physical models, viz. kinetic, electron-magnetohydrodynamics (EMHD), Hall-MHD, and MHD. The shortest scale processes are at the electron scale and these are modeled using an EMHD code, which provides many features of the multiscale behavior. In simulations using initial conditions consisting of pertur-bations with many scale sizes the reconnection takes place at many sites and the plasma flows from these interact with each other. This leads to thin current sheets with length less than 10 electron skin depths. The plasma flows also generate current sheets with multiple peaks, as observed by Cluster. The quadrupole structure of the magnetic field during reconnection starts on the electron scale and the interaction of inflow to the secondary sites and outflow from the dominant site generates a nested structure. In the outflow regions, the interaction of the electron outflows generated at the neighboring sites lead to the development of electron vortices. A signature of the nested structure of the Hall field is seen in Cluster observations, and more details of these features are expected from MMS.

Comparative modeling of Bronze Age land use in the Malatya Plain (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arıkan, Bülent; Restelli, Francesca Balossi; Masi, Alessia

2016-03-01

Computational modeling in archeology has proven to be a useful tool in quantifying changes in the paleoenvironment. This especially useful method combines data from diverse disciplines to answer questions focusing on the complex and non-linear aspects of human-environment interactions. The research presented here uses various proxy records to compare the changes in climate during the Bronze Age in the Malatya Plain in eastern Anatolia, which is situated at the northern extremity of northern Mesopotamia. Extensive agropastoral land use modeling was applied to three sites of different size and function in the Malatya Plain during the Early Bronze Age I period to simulate the varying scale and intensity of human impacts in relation to changes in the level of social organization, demography, and temporal length. The results suggest that even in land use types subjected to a light footprint, the scale and intensity of anthropogenic impacts change significantly in relation to the level of social organization.

ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE STABILITY OF SMALL TIDAL INLETS: Part 2- DATA RICH ENVIRONMENTS.

PubMed

Duong, Trang Minh; Ranasinghe, Roshanka; Thatcher, Marcus; Mahanama, Sarith; Wang, Zheng Bing; Dissanayake, Pushpa Kumara; Hemer, Mark; Luijendijk, Arjen; Bamunawala, Janaka; Roelvink, Dano; Walstra, Dirkjan

2018-01-01

Climate change (CC) is likely to affect the thousands of bar-built or barrier estuaries (here referred to as Small tidal inlets - STIs) around the world. Any such CC impacts on the stability of STIs, which governs the dynamics of STIs as well as that of the inlet-adjacent coastline, can result in significant socio-economic consequences due to the heavy human utilisation of these systems and their surrounds. This article demonstrates the application of a process based snap-shot modelling approach, using the coastal morphodynamic model Delft3D , to 3 case study sites representing the 3 main STI types; Permanently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 1), Permanently open, alongshore migrating inlets (Type 2) and Seasonally/Intermittently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 3). The 3 case study sites (Negombo lagoon - Type 1, Kalutara lagoon - Type 2, and Maha Oya river - Type 3) are all located along the southwest coast of Sri Lanka. After successful hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model validation at the 3 case study sites, CC impact assessment are undertaken for a high end greenhouse gas emission scenario. Future CC modified wave and riverflow conditions are derived from a regional scale application of spectral wave models (WaveWatch III and SWAN) and catchment scale applications of a hydrologic model (CLSM) respectively, both of which are forced with IPCC Global Climate Model output dynamically downscaled to ~ 50 km resolution over the study area with the stretched grid Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model CCAM. Results show that while all 3 case study STIs will experience significant CC driven variations in their level of stability, none of them will change Type by the year 2100. Specifically, the level of stability of the Type 1 inlet will decrease from 'Good' to 'Fair to poor' by 2100, while the level of (locational) stability of the Type 2 inlet will also decrease with a doubling of the annual migration distance. Conversely, the stability of the Type 3 inlet will increase, with the time till inlet closure increasing by ~75%. The main contributor to the overall CC effect on the stability of all 3 STIs is CC driven variations in wave conditions and resulting changes in longshore sediment transport, not Sea level rise as commonly believed.

Epiphytic lichen diversity on dead and dying conifers under different levels of atmospheric pollution.

PubMed

Hauck, Markus

2005-05-01

Based on literature data, epiphytic lichen abundance was comparably studied in montane woodlands on healthy versus dead or dying conifers of Europe and North America in areas with different levels of atmospheric pollution. Study sites comprised Picea abies forests in the Harz Mountains and in the northern Alps, Germany, Picea rubens-Abies balsamea forests on Whiteface Mountain, Adirondacks, New York, U.S.A. and Picea engelmannii-Abies lasiocarpa forests in the Salish Mountains, Montana, U.S.A. Detrended correspondence analysis showed that epiphytic lichen vegetation differed more between healthy and dead or dying trees at high- versus low-polluted sites. This is attributed to greater differences in chemical habitat conditions between trees of different vitality in highly polluted areas. Based on these results, a hypothetical model of relative importance of site factors for small-scale variation of epiphytic lichen abundance versus atmospheric pollutant load is discussed.

Multilevel Hierarchical Modeling of Benthic Macroinvertebrate Responses to Urbanization in Nine Metropolitan Regions across the Conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kashuba, Roxolana; Cha, YoonKyung; Alameddine, Ibrahim; Lee, Boknam; Cuffney, Thomas F.

2010-01-01

Multilevel hierarchical modeling methodology has been developed for use in ecological data analysis. The effect of urbanization on stream macroinvertebrate communities was measured across a gradient of basins in each of nine metropolitan regions across the conterminous United States. The hierarchical nature of this dataset was harnessed in a multi-tiered model structure, predicting both invertebrate response at the basin scale and differences in invertebrate response at the region scale. Ordination site scores, total taxa richness, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) taxa richness, and richness-weighted mean tolerance of organisms at a site were used to describe invertebrate responses. Percentage of urban land cover was used as a basin-level predictor variable. Regional mean precipitation, air temperature, and antecedent agriculture were used as region-level predictor variables. Multilevel hierarchical models were fit to both levels of data simultaneously, borrowing statistical strength from the complete dataset to reduce uncertainty in regional coefficient estimates. Additionally, whereas non-hierarchical regressions were only able to show differing relations between invertebrate responses and urban intensity separately for each region, the multilevel hierarchical regressions were able to explain and quantify those differences within a single model. In this way, this modeling approach directly establishes the importance of antecedent agricultural conditions in masking the response of invertebrates to urbanization in metropolitan regions such as Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; Denver, Colorado; and Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas. Also, these models show that regions with high precipitation, such as Atlanta, Georgia; Birmingham, Alabama; and Portland, Oregon, start out with better regional background conditions of invertebrates prior to urbanization but experience faster negative rates of change with urbanization. Ultimately, this urbanization-invertebrate response example is used to detail the multilevel hierarchical construction methodology, showing how the result is a set of models that are both statistically more rigorous and ecologically more interpretable than simple linear regression models.

Estimation of surface heat and moisture fluxes over a prairie grassland. II - Two-dimensional time filtering and site variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crosson, William L.; Smith, Eric A.

1992-01-01

The behavior of in situ measurements of surface fluxes obtained during FIFE 1987 is examined by using correlative and spectral techniques in order to assess the significance of fluctuations on various time scales, from subdiurnal up to synoptic, intraseasonal, and annual scales. The objectives of this analysis are: (1) to determine which temporal scales have a significant impact on areal averaged fluxes and (2) to design a procedure for filtering an extended flux time series that preserves the basic diurnal features and longer time scales while removing high frequency noise that cannot be attributed to site-induced variation. These objectives are accomplished through the use of a two-dimensional cross-time Fourier transform, which serves to separate processes inherently related to diurnal and subdiurnal variability from those which impact flux variations on the longer time scales. A filtering procedure is desirable before the measurements are utilized as input with an experimental biosphere model, to insure that model based intercomparisons at multiple sites are uncontaminated by input variance not related to true site behavior. Analysis of the spectral decomposition indicates that subdiurnal time scales having periods shorter than 6 hours have little site-to-site consistency and therefore little impact on areal integrated fluxes.

Nestedness in assemblages of helminth parasites of bats: a function of geography, environment, or host nestedness?

PubMed

Warburton, Elizabeth M; Van Der Mescht, Luther; Khokhlova, Irina S; Krasnov, Boris R; Vonhof, Maarten J

2018-05-01

Nested subsets occur in ecological communities when species-poor communities are subsets of larger, species-rich communities. Understanding this pattern can help elucidate species colonization abilities, extinction risks, and general structuring of biological communities. Here, we evaluate nestedness in a poorly studied host-parasite system, bats and their helminths, across the Japanese archipelago and within its different bioclimatic regions. We hypothesized that (1) if helminth communities are nested across geographic sites at the level of the archipelago, then broad-scale processes, like colonization-extinction dynamics, mainly structure parasite assemblages; (2) if helminth communities are nested across geographic sites at the level of the bioclimatic region, then fine-scale environmental variation plays a significant role in species nestedness; (3) if helminth community nestedness mirrors host species nestedness, then communities are nested because the habitats they occupy are nested; and (4) if nestedness does not occur or if it is not correlated with any geographical or host data, then passive sampling could be responsible for the patterns of parasite assemblage in our sample. We found that helminth communities were nested across host species throughout the archipelago but, when considering each bioclimatic region, helminths in only one region were significantly more nested than the null model. Helminth communities were also nested across sites within all four bioclimatic regions. These results suggest that helminths form nested subsets across the archipelago due to broad-scale processes that reflect the overall lineages of their mammalian hosts; however, at the regional scale, environmental processes related to nestedness of their habitats drive parasite community nestedness.

EPIC-Simulated and MODIS-Derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is an important parameter in assessing vegetation structure for characterizing forest canopies over large areas at broad spatial scales using satellite remote sensing data. However, satellite-derived LAI products can be limited by obstructed atmospheric conditions yielding sub-optimal values, or complete non-returns. The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Methods and Measurements and Computational Exposure Divisions are investigating the viability of supplemental modelled LAI inputs into satellite-derived data streams to support various regional and local scale air quality models for retrospective and future climate assessments. In this present study, one-year (2002) of plot level stand characteristics at four study sites located in Virginia and North Carolina are used to calibrate species-specific plant parameters in a semi-empirical biogeochemical model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was designed primarily for managed agricultural field crop ecosystems, but also includes managed woody species that span both xeric and mesic sites (e.g., mesquite, pine, oak, etc.). LAI was simulated using EPIC at a 4 km2 and 12 km2 grid coincident with the regional Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) grid. LAI comparisons were made between model-simulated and MODIS-derived LAI. Field/satellite-upscaled LAI was also compared to the corresponding MODIS LAI value. Preliminary results show field/satel

Integrated methodology for assessing the HCH groundwater pollution at the multi-source contaminated mega-site Bitterfeld/Wolfen.

PubMed

Wycisk, Peter; Stollberg, Reiner; Neumann, Christian; Gossel, Wolfgang; Weiss, Holger; Weber, Roland

2013-04-01

A large-scale groundwater contamination characterises the Pleistocene groundwater system of the former industrial and abandoned mining region Bitterfeld/Wolfen, Eastern Germany. For more than a century, local chemical production and extensive lignite mining caused a complex contaminant release from local production areas and related dump sites. Today, organic pollutants (mainly organochlorines) are present in all compartments of the environment at high concentration levels. An integrated methodology for characterising the current situation of pollution as well as the future fate development of hazardous substances is highly required to decide on further management and remediation strategies. Data analyses have been performed on regional groundwater monitoring data from about 10 years, containing approximately 3,500 samples, and up to 180 individual organic parameters from almost 250 observation wells. Run-off measurements as well as water samples were taken biweekly from local creeks during a period of 18 months. A kriging interpolation procedure was applied on groundwater analytics to generate continuous distribution patterns of the nodal contaminant samples. High-resolution geological 3-D modelling serves as a database for a regional 3-D groundwater flow model. Simulation results support the future fate assessment of contaminants. A first conceptual model of the contamination has been developed to characterise the contamination in regional surface waters and groundwater. A reliable explanation of the variant hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) occurrence within the two local aquifer systems has been derived from the regionalised distribution patterns. Simulation results from groundwater flow modelling provide a better understanding of the future pollutant migration paths and support the overall site characterisation. The presented case study indicates that an integrated assessment of large-scale groundwater contaminations often needs more data than only from local groundwater monitoring. The developed methodology is appropriate to assess POP-contaminated mega-sites including, e.g. HCH deposits. Although HCH isomers are relevant groundwater pollutants at this site, further organochlorine pollutants are present at considerably higher levels. The study demonstrates that an effective evaluation of the current situation of contamination as well as of the related future fate development requires detailed information of the entire observed system.

The effects of biome and spatial scale on the Co-occurrence patterns of a group of Namibian beetles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitzalis, Monica; Montalto, Francesca; Amore, Valentina; Luiselli, Luca; Bologna, Marco A.

2017-08-01

Co-occurrence patterns (studied by C-score, number of checkerboard units, number of species combinations, and V-ratio, and by an empirical Bayes approach developed by Gotelli and Ulrich, 2010) are crucial elements in order to understand assembly rules in ecological communities at both local and spatial scales. In order to explore general assembly rules and the effects of biome and spatial scale on such rules, here we studied a group of beetles (Coleoptera, Meloidae), using Namibia as a case of study. Data were gathered from 186 sampling sites, which allowed collection of 74 different species. We analyzed data at the level of (i) all sampled sites, (ii) all sites stratified by biome (Savannah, Succulent Karoo, Nama Karoo, Desert), and (iii) three randomly selected nested areas with three spatial scales each. Three competing algorithms were used for all analyses: (i) Fixed-Equiprobable, (ii) Fixed-Fixed, and (iii) Fixed-Proportional. In most of the null models we created, co-occurrence indicators revealed a non-random structure in meloid beetle assemblages at the global scale and at the scale of biomes, with species aggregation being much more important than species segregation in determining this non-randomness. At the level of biome, the same non-random organization was uncovered in assemblages from Savannah (where the aggregation pattern was particularly strong) and Succulent Karoo, but not in Desert and Nama Karoo. We conclude that species facilitation and similar niche in endemic species pairs may be particularly important as community drivers in our case of study. This pattern is also consistent with the evidence of a higher species diversity (normalized according to biome surface area) in the two former biomes. Historical patterns were perhaps also important for Succulent Karoo assemblages. Spatial scale had a reduced effect on patterning our data. This is consistent with the general homogeneity of environmental conditions over wide areas in Namibia.

Variation of Accumulation Rates Over the Last Eight Centuries on the East Antarctic Plateau Derived from Volcanic Signals in Ice Cores

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anschuetz, H.; Sinisalo, A.; Isaksson, E.; McConnell, J. R.; Hamran, S.-E.; Bisiaux, M. M.; Pasteris, D.; Neumann, T. A.; Winther, J.-G.

2011-01-01

Volcanic signatures in ice-core records provide an excellent means to date the cores and obtain information about accumulation rates. From several ice cores it is thus possible to extract a spatio-temporal accumulation pattern. We show records of electrical conductivity and sulfur from firn cores from the Norwegian-USA scientific traverse during the International Polar Year 2007-2009 (IPY) through East Antarctica. Major volcanic eruptions are identified and used to assess century-scale accumulation changes. The largest changes seem to occur in the most recent decades with accumulation over the period 1963- 2007/08 being up to 25 % different from the long-term record. There is no clear overall trend, some sites show an increase in accumulation over the period 1963 to present while others show a decrease. Almost all of the sites above 3200 m above sea level (asl) suggest a decrease. These sites also show a significantly lower accumulation value than large-scale assessments both for the period 1963 to present and for the long-term mean at the respective drill sites. The spatial accumulation distribution is influenced mainly by elevation and distance to the ocean (continentality), as expected. Ground-penetrating radar data around the drill sites show a spatial variability within 10-20 % over several tens of kilometers, indicating that our drill sites are well representative for the area around them. Our results are important for large-scale assessments of Antarctic mass balance and model validation.

Memory matters: influence from a cognitive map on animal space use.

PubMed

Gautestad, Arild O

2011-10-21

A vertebrate individual's cognitive map provides a capacity for site fidelity and long-distance returns to favorable patches. Fractal-geometrical analysis of individual space use based on collection of telemetry fixes makes it possible to verify the influence of a cognitive map on the spatial scatter of habitat use and also to what extent space use has been of a scale-specific versus a scale-free kind. This approach rests on a statistical mechanical level of system abstraction, where micro-scale details of behavioral interactions are coarse-grained to macro-scale observables like the fractal dimension of space use. In this manner, the magnitude of the fractal dimension becomes a proxy variable for distinguishing between main classes of habitat exploration and site fidelity, like memory-less (Markovian) Brownian motion and Levy walk and memory-enhanced space use like Multi-scaled Random Walk (MRW). In this paper previous analyses are extended by exploring MRW simulations under three scenarios: (1) central place foraging, (2) behavioral adaptation to resource depletion (avoidance of latest visited locations) and (3) transition from MRW towards Levy walk by narrowing memory capacity to a trailing time window. A generalized statistical-mechanical theory with the power to model cognitive map influence on individual space use will be important for statistical analyses of animal habitat preferences and the mechanics behind site fidelity and home ranges. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Managing data from multiple disciplines, scales, and sites to support synthesis and modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, R. J.; Briggs, J. M.; Porter, J.H.; Mah, Grant R.; Stafford, S.G.

1999-01-01

The synthesis and modeling of ecological processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales involves bringing together and sharing data from numerous sources. This article describes a data and information system model that facilitates assembling, managing, and sharing diverse data from multiple disciplines, scales, and sites to support integrated ecological studies. Cross-site scientific-domain working groups coordinate the development of data associated with their particular scientific working group, including decisions about data requirements, data to be compiled, data formats, derived data products, and schedules across the sites. The Web-based data and information system consists of nodes for each working group plus a central node that provides data access, project information, data query, and other functionality. The approach incorporates scientists and computer experts in the working groups and provides incentives for individuals to submit documented data to the data and information system.

Interests of long-term hydrogeological observatories for characterizing and modelling heterogeneous groundwater systems at multiple temporal and spatial scales: the example of Ploemeur, a crystalline rock aquifer (Brittany).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bour, Olivier; Longuervergne, Laurent; Le Borgne, Tanguy; Lavenant, Nicolas; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald; Schuite, Jonathan; Labasque, Thierry; Aquilina, Luc; Davy, Philippe

2017-04-01

Characterizing groundwater flows and surface interactions in heterogeneous groundwater systems such as crystalline fractured rock is often extremely complex. In particular, hydraulic properties are highly variable while groundwater chemical properties may vary both in space and time, especially due to the impact of groundwater abstraction. Here, we show the interest of hydrological observatories and long-term monitoring for characterizing hydrological processes occurring in a crystalline rock aquifer. We present results from the site of Ploemeur (French Brittany) that belongs to the network of hydrogeological sites H+ and the research infrastructure OZCAR, and where interdisciplinary and integrated research at multiple temporal and spatial scales has been developed for almost twenty years. This outstandingly heterogeneous crystalline rock aquifer is also used for groundwater supply since 1991. In particular, we show how cross-borehole flowmeter tests, pumping tests and a frequency domain analysis of groundwater levels allow quantifying the hydraulic properties of the aquifer at different scales. In addition, groundwater temperature evolution was used as an excellent tracer for characterizing groundwater flow. At the site scale, measurements of ground surface deformation through long-base tiltmeters provide robust estimates of aquifer storage and allow identifying the active structures, including those acting during recharge process. Finally, a numerical model of the watershed scale that combines hydraulic data and groundwater ages confirms the geometry of this complex aquifer and the consistency of the different datasets. In parallel, this hydrological observatory is also used for developing hydrogeophysical methods and to characterize groundwater transport and biogeochemical reactivity in the sub-surface. The Ploemeur hydrogeological observatory is a good example of the interest of focusing research activities on a site during long-term as it provides a thorough understanding of both hydrological and biogeochemical processes that can be extended to many heterogeneous aquifers.

On temporal stochastic modeling of precipitation, nesting models across scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

2014-01-01

We analyze the performance of composite stochastic models of temporal precipitation which can satisfactorily reproduce precipitation properties across a wide range of temporal scales. The rationale is that a combination of stochastic precipitation models which are most appropriate for specific limited temporal scales leads to better overall performance across a wider range of scales than single models alone. We investigate different model combinations. For the coarse (daily) scale these are models based on Alternating renewal processes, Markov chains, and Poisson cluster models, which are then combined with a microcanonical Multiplicative Random Cascade model to disaggregate precipitation to finer (minute) scales. The composite models were tested on data at four sites in different climates. The results show that model combinations improve the performance in key statistics such as probability distributions of precipitation depth, autocorrelation structure, intermittency, reproduction of extremes, compared to single models. At the same time they remain reasonably parsimonious. No model combination was found to outperform the others at all sites and for all statistics, however we provide insight on the capabilities of specific model combinations. The results for the four different climates are similar, which suggests a degree of generality and wider applicability of the approach.

The role of shock induced trailing-edge separation in limit cycle oscillations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cunningham, Atlee M., Jr.

1989-01-01

The potential role of shock induced trailing edge separation (SITES) in limit cycle oscillations (LCO) was established. It was shown that the flip-flop characteristics of transition to and from SITES as well as its hysteresis could couple with wing modes with torsional motion and low damping. This connection led to the formulation of a very simple nonlinear math model using the linear equations of motion with a nonlinear step forcing function with hysteresis. A finite difference solution with time was developed and calculations were made for the F-111 TACT were used to determine the step forcing function due to SITES transition. Since no data were available for the hysteresis, a parameter study was conducted allowing the hysteresis effect to vary. Very small hysteresis effects, which were within expected bounds, were required to obtain reasonable response levels that essentially agreed with flight test results. Also in agreement with wind tunnel tests, LCO calculations for the 1/6 scale F-111 model showed that the model should have not experienced LCO.

Mapping AmeriFlux footprints: Towards knowing the flux source area across a network of towers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menzer, O.; Pastorello, G.; Metzger, S.; Poindexter, C.; Agarwal, D.; Papale, D.

2014-12-01

The AmeriFlux network collects long-term carbon, water and energy flux measurements obtained with the eddy covariance method. In order to attribute fluxes to specific areas of the land surface, flux source calculations are essential. Consequently, footprint models can support flux up-scaling exercises to larger regions, often based on remote sensing data. However, flux footprints are not currently being routinely calculated; different approaches exist but have not been standardized. In part, this is due to varying instrumentation and data processing methods at the site level. The goal of this work is to map tower footprints for a future standardized AmeriFlux product to be generated at the network level. These footprints can be estimated by analytical models, Lagrangian simulations, and large-eddy simulations. However, for many sites, the datasets currently submitted to central databases generally do not include all variables required. The AmeriFlux network is moving to collection of raw data and expansion of the variables requested from sites, giving the possibility to calculate all parameters and variables needed to run most of the available footprint models. In this pilot study, we are applying state of the art footprint models across a subset of AmeriFlux sites, to evaluate the feasibility and merit of developing standardized footprint results. In addition to comparing outcomes from several footprint models, we will attempt to verify and validate the results in two ways: (i) Verification of our footprint calculations at sites where footprints have been experimentally estimated. (ii) Validation at towers situated in heterogeneous landscapes: here, variations in the observed fluxes are expected to correlate with spatiotemporal variations of the source area composition. Once implemented, the footprint results can be used as additional information within the AmeriFlux database that can support data interpretation and data assimilation. Lastly, we will explore the expandability of this approach to other flux networks by collaborating with and including sites from the ICOS and NEON networks in our analyses. This can enable utilizing the footprint model output to improve network interoperability, thus further promoting synthesis analyses and understanding of system-level questions in the future.

Analytical model for the design of in situ horizontal permeable reactive barriers (HPRBs) for the mitigation of chlorinated solvent vapors in the unsaturated zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verginelli, Iason; Capobianco, Oriana; Hartog, Niels; Baciocchi, Renato

2017-02-01

In this work we introduce a 1-D analytical solution that can be used for the design of horizontal permeable reactive barriers (HPRBs) as a vapor mitigation system at sites contaminated by chlorinated solvents. The developed model incorporates a transient diffusion-dominated transport with a second-order reaction rate constant. Furthermore, the model accounts for the HPRB lifetime as a function of the oxidant consumption by reaction with upward vapors and its progressive dissolution and leaching by infiltrating water. Simulation results by this new model closely replicate previous lab-scale tests carried out on trichloroethylene (TCE) using a HPRB containing a mixture of potassium permanganate, water and sand. In view of field applications, design criteria, in terms of the minimum HPRB thickness required to attenuate vapors at acceptable risk-based levels and the expected HPRB lifetime, are determined from site-specific conditions such as vapor source concentration, water infiltration rate and HPRB mixture. The results clearly show the field-scale feasibility of this alternative vapor mitigation system for the treatment of chlorinated solvents. Depending on the oxidation kinetic of the target contaminant, a 1 m thick HPRB can ensure an attenuation of vapor concentrations of orders of magnitude up to 20 years, even for vapor source concentrations up to 10 g/m3. A demonstrative application for representative contaminated site conditions also shows the feasibility of this mitigation system from an economical point of view with capital costs potentially somewhat lower than those of other remediation options, such as soil vapor extraction systems. Overall, based on the experimental and theoretical evaluation thus far, field-scale tests are warranted to verify the potential and cost-effectiveness of HPRBs for vapor mitigation control under various conditions of application.

Evaluating the Impact of Spatial Resolution of Landsat Predictors on the Accuracy of Biomass Models for Large-area Estimation Across the Eastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deo, R. K.; Domke, G. M.; Russell, M.; Woodall, C. W.

2017-12-01

Landsat data have been widely used to support strategic forest inventory and management decisions despite the limited success of passive optical remote sensing for accurate estimation of aboveground biomass (AGB). The archive of publicly available Landsat data, available at 30-m spatial resolutions since 1984, has been a valuable resource for cost-effective large-area estimation of AGB to inform national requirements such as for the US national greenhouse gas inventory (NGHGI). In addition, other optical satellite data such as MODIS imagery of wider spatial coverage and higher temporal resolution are enriching the domain of spatial predictors for regional scale mapping of AGB. Because NGHGIs require national scale AGB information and there are tradeoffs in the prediction accuracy versus operational efficiency of Landsat, this study evaluated the impact of various resolutions of Landsat predictors on the accuracy of regional AGB models across three different sites in the eastern USA: Maine, Pennsylvania-New Jersey, and South Carolina. We used recent national forest inventory (NFI) data with numerous Landsat-derived predictors at ten different spatial resolutions ranging from 30 to 1000 m to understand the optimal spatial resolution of the optical data for enhanced spatial inventory of AGB for NGHGI reporting. Ten generic spatial models at different spatial resolutions were developed for all sites and large-area estimates were evaluated (i) at the county-level against the independent designed-based estimates via the US NFI Evalidator tool and (ii) within a large number of strips ( 1 km wide) predicted via LiDAR metrics at a high spatial resolution. The county-level estimates by the Evalidator and Landsat models were statistically equivalent and produced coefficients of determination (R2) above 0.85 that varied with sites and resolution of predictors. The mean and standard deviation of county-level estimates followed increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, with models of decreasing resolutions. The Landsat-based total AGB estimates within the strips against the total AGB obtained using LiDAR metrics did not differ significantly and were within ±15 Mg/ha for each of the sites. We conclude that the optical satellite data at resolutions up to 1000 m provide acceptable accuracy for the US' NGHGI.

A comparison of phone-based and onsite-based fidelity for Assertive Community Treatment in Indiana

PubMed Central

McGrew, John H.; Stull, Laura G.; Rollins, Angela L.; Salyers, Michelle P.; Hicks, Lia J.

2014-01-01

Objective This study investigated the reliability, validity, and role of rater expertise in phone-administered fidelity assessment instrument based on the Dartmouth Assertive Community Treatment Scale (DACTS). Methods An experienced rater paired with a research assistant without fidelity assessment experience or a consultant familiar with the treatment site conducted phone based assessments of 23 teams providing assertive community treatment in Indiana. Using the DACTS, consultants conducted on-site evaluations of the programs. Results The pairs of phone raters revealed high levels of consistency [intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC)=.92] and consensus (mean absolute difference of .07). Phone and on-site assessment showed strong agreement (ICC=.87) and consensus (mean absolute difference of .07) and agreed within .1 scale point, or 2% of the scoring range, for 83% of sites and within .15 scale point for 91% of sites. Results were unaffected by the expertise level of the rater. Conclusions Phone based assessment could help agencies monitor faithful implementation of evidence-based practices. PMID:21632738

Synthesizing trait correlations and functional relationships across multiple scales: A Hierarchical Bayes approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiklomanov, A. N.; Cowdery, E.; Dietze, M.

2016-12-01

Recent syntheses of global trait databases have revealed that although the functional diversity among plant species is immense, this diversity is constrained by trade-offs between plant strategies. However, the use of among-trait and trait-environment correlations at the global scale for both qualitative ecological inference and land surface modeling has several important caveats. An alternative approach is to preserve the existing PFT-based model structure while using statistical analyses to account for uncertainty and variability in model parameters. In this study, we used a hierarchical Bayesian model of foliar traits in the TRY database to test the following hypotheses: (1) Leveraging the covariance between foliar traits will significantly constrain our uncertainty in their distributions; and (2) Among-trait covariance patterns are significantly different among and within PFTs, reflecting differences in trade-offs associated with biome-level evolution, site-level community assembly, and individual-level ecophysiological acclimation. We found that among-trait covariance significantly constrained estimates of trait means, and the additional information provided by across-PFT covariance led to more constraint still, especially for traits and PFTs with low sample sizes. We also found that among-trait correlations were highly variable among PFTs, and were generally inconsistent with correlations within PFTs. The hierarchical multivariate framework developed in our study can readily be enhanced with additional levels of hierarchy to account for geographic, species, and individual-level variability.

Numerical study of Asian dust transport during the springtime of 2001 simulated with the Chemical Weather Forecasting System (CFORS) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uno, Itsushi; Satake, Shinsuke; Carmichael, Gregory R.; Tang, Youhua; Wang, Zifa; Takemura, Toshihiko; Sugimoto, Nobuo; Shimizu, Atsushi; Murayama, Toshiyuki; Cahill, Thomas A.; Cliff, Steven; Uematsu, Mitsuo; Ohta, Sachio; Quinn, Patricia K.; Bates, Timothy S.

2004-10-01

The regional-scale aerosol transport model Chemical Weather Forecasting System (CFORS) is used for analysis of large-scale dust phenomena during the Asian Pacific Regional Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) intensive observation. Dust modeling results are examined with the surface weather reports, satellite-derived dust index (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AI)), Mie-scattering lidar observation, and surface aerosol observations. The CFORS dust results are shown to accurately reproduce many of the important observed features. Model analysis shows that the simulated dust vertical loading correlates well with TOMS AI and that the dust loading is transported with the meandering of the synoptic-scale temperature field at the 500-hPa level. Quantitative examination of aerosol optical depth shows that model predictions are within 20% difference of the lidar observations for the major dust episodes. The structure of the ACE-Asia Perfect Dust Storm, which occurred in early April, is clarified with the help of the CFORS model analysis. This storm consisted of two boundary layer components and one elevated dust (>6-km height) feature (resulting from the movement of two large low-pressure systems). Time variation of the CFORS dust fields shows the correct onset timing of the elevated dust for each observation site, but the model results tend to overpredict dust concentrations at lower latitude sites. The horizontal transport flux at 130°E longitude is examined, and the overall dust transport flux at 130°E during March-April is evaluated to be 55 Tg.

Simulating CH4 and N2O emissions from direct-seeded rice systems using the DeNitrification DeComposition (DNDC) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmonds, M.; Li, C.; Lee, J.; Six, J.; Van Kessel, C.; Linquist, B.

2015-12-01

Process-based modeling of CH4 and N2O emissions from rice fields is a practical tool for conducting greenhouse gas inventories and estimating mitigation potentials of alternative practices at the scales of management and policy-making. However, few studies have evaluated site-level model performance in side-by-side field trials of various management practices during both the growing season and fallow periods. We empirically evaluated the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model for estimating CH4 and N2O fluxes in California rice systems under varying management (N fertilizer application rate, type of seeding system, fallow period straw and water management), soil environments, and weather conditions. Five and nine site-year combinations were used for calibration and validation, respectively. The model was parameterized for two cultivars, M206 and Koshihikari, and able to simulate 30% and 78% of the measured variation in yields, respectively. A major strength of DNDC was in estimating general site-level seasonal CH4 emissions (R2 = 0.85). However, a major limitation was in simulating finer resolution of differences in CH4 emissions (or lack thereof) among side-by-side management treatments (range of 0.2-465% relative absolute deviation). Additionally, DNDC did not satisfactorily simulate fallow period CH4 emissions, or seasonal and fallow period N2O emissions across all sites with the exception of a few cases. Specifically, simulated CH4 emissions were oversensitive to fertilizer N rates, but lacked sensitivity to the type of seeding system and prior fallow period straw management. Additionally, N2O emissions were oversensitive to fertilizer N rates and field drainage. Sensitivity analysis showed that CH4 emissions were highly sensitive to changes in the root to total plant biomass ratio. Overall, uncertainty in model predictions was attributed to uncertainty in both the input parameters due to in-field spatiotemporal variability of soil properties, and in the model structure (e.g., genotype by environment interactions, clay effects, and simulation routines for field drainage, and diffusion and ebullition of gasses). These findings have implications for model-directed field research that could improve model uncertainty for application at larger spatial scales.

Changes in US extreme sea levels and the role of large scale climate variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Chambers, D. P.

2015-12-01

We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multi-decadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extra-tropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multi-decadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis approach we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (RWLs; 50 to 200 year return periods) ranging from ~10 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. To explore the origin of these temporal changes and the role of large-scale climate variability we develop different sets of simple and multiple linear regression models with RWLs as dependent variables and climate indices, or tailored (toward the goal of predicting multi-decadal RWL changes) versions of them, and wind stress curl as independent predictors. The models, after being tested for spatial and temporal stability, explain up to 97% of the observed variability at individual sites and almost 80% on average. Using the model predictions as covariates for the quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis also significantly reduces the range of change in the 100-year RWLs over time, turning a non-stationary process into a stationary one. This highlights that the models - when used with regional and global climate model output of the predictors - should also be capable of projecting future RWL changes to be used by decision makers for improved flood preparedness and long-term resiliency.

Allometric Convergence in Savanna Trees and Implications for the Use of Plant Scaling Models in Variable Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Hanan, Niall P.

2013-01-01

Theoretical models of allometric scaling provide frameworks for understanding and predicting how and why the morphology and function of organisms vary with scale. It remains unclear, however, if the predictions of ‘universal’ scaling models for vascular plants hold across diverse species in variable environments. Phenomena such as competition and disturbance may drive allometric scaling relationships away from theoretical predictions based on an optimized tree. Here, we use a hierarchical Bayesian approach to calculate tree-specific, species-specific, and ‘global’ (i.e. interspecific) scaling exponents for several allometric relationships using tree- and branch-level data harvested from three savanna sites across a rainfall gradient in Mali, West Africa. We use these exponents to provide a rigorous test of three plant scaling models (Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST), Geometric Similarity, and Stress Similarity) in savanna systems. For the allometric relationships we evaluated (diameter vs. length, aboveground mass, stem mass, and leaf mass) the empirically calculated exponents broadly overlapped among species from diverse environments, except for the scaling exponents for length, which increased with tree cover and density. When we compare empirical scaling exponents to the theoretical predictions from the three models we find MST predictions are most consistent with our observed allometries. In those situations where observations are inconsistent with MST we find that departure from theory corresponds with expected tradeoffs related to disturbance and competitive interactions. We hypothesize savanna trees have greater length-scaling exponents than predicted by MST due to an evolutionary tradeoff between fire escape and optimization of mechanical stability and internal resource transport. Future research on the drivers of systematic allometric variation could reconcile the differences between observed scaling relationships in variable ecosystems and those predicted by ideal models such as MST. PMID:23484003

Development and field validation of a regional, management-scale habitat model: A koala Phascolarctos cinereus case study.

PubMed

Law, Bradley; Caccamo, Gabriele; Roe, Paul; Truskinger, Anthony; Brassil, Traecey; Gonsalves, Leroy; McConville, Anna; Stanton, Matthew

2017-09-01

Species distribution models have great potential to efficiently guide management for threatened species, especially for those that are rare or cryptic. We used MaxEnt to develop a regional-scale model for the koala Phascolarctos cinereus at a resolution (250 m) that could be used to guide management. To ensure the model was fit for purpose, we placed emphasis on validating the model using independently-collected field data. We reduced substantial spatial clustering of records in coastal urban areas using a 2-km spatial filter and by modeling separately two subregions separated by the 500-m elevational contour. A bias file was prepared that accounted for variable survey effort. Frequency of wildfire, soil type, floristics and elevation had the highest relative contribution to the model, while a number of other variables made minor contributions. The model was effective in discriminating different habitat suitability classes when compared with koala records not used in modeling. We validated the MaxEnt model at 65 ground-truth sites using independent data on koala occupancy (acoustic sampling) and habitat quality (browse tree availability). Koala bellows ( n  = 276) were analyzed in an occupancy modeling framework, while site habitat quality was indexed based on browse trees. Field validation demonstrated a linear increase in koala occupancy with higher modeled habitat suitability at ground-truth sites. Similarly, a site habitat quality index at ground-truth sites was correlated positively with modeled habitat suitability. The MaxEnt model provided a better fit to estimated koala occupancy than the site-based habitat quality index, probably because many variables were considered simultaneously by the model rather than just browse species. The positive relationship of the model with both site occupancy and habitat quality indicates that the model is fit for application at relevant management scales. Field-validated models of similar resolution would assist in guiding management of conservation-dependent species.

Twig-leaf size relationships in woody plants vary intraspecifically along a soil moisture gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiao-Dong; Yan, En-Rong; Chang, Scott X.; Wang, Xi-Hua; Zhao, Yan-Tao; Shi, Qing-Ru

2014-10-01

Understanding scaling relationships between twig size and leaf size along environmental gradients is important for revealing strategies of plant biomass allocation with changing environmental constraints. However, it remains poorly understood how variations in the slope and y-intercept in the twig-leaf size relationship partition among individual, population and species levels across communities. Here, we determined the scaling relationships between twig cross-sectional area (twig size) and total leaf area per twig (leaf size) among individual, population and species levels along a soil moisture gradient in subtropical forests in eastern China. Twig and leaf tissues from 95 woody plant species were collected from three sites that form a soil moisture gradient: a wet site (W), a mesophytic site (M), and a dry site (D). The variance in scaling slope and y-intercept was partitioned among individual, population and species levels using a nested ANOVA. In addition, the change in the twig-leaf size relationship over the soil moisture gradient was determined for each of overlapping and turnover species. Twig size was positively related to leaf size across the three levels, with the variance partitioned at the individual level in scaling slope and y-intercept being 98 and 90%, respectively. Along the soil moisture gradient, the twig-leaf size relationship differed inter- and intraspecifically. At the species and population levels, there were homogeneous slopes but the y-intercept was W > M = D. In contrast, at the individual level, the regression slopes were heterogeneous among the three sites. More remarkably, the twig-leaf size relationships changed from negative allometry for overlapping species to isometry for turnover species. This study provides strong evidence for the twig-leaf size relationship to be intraspecific, particularly at the individual level. Our findings suggest that whether or not species have overlapping habitats is crucial for shaping the deployment pattern between twigs and leaves.

Effect of climate change on environmental flow indicators in the narew basin, poland.

PubMed

Piniewski, Mikołaj; Laizé, Cédric L R; Acreman, Michael C; Okruszko, Tomasz; Schneider, Christof

2014-01-01

Environmental flows-the quantity of water required to maintain a river ecosystem in its desired state-are of particular importance in areas of high natural value. Water-dependent ecosystems are exposed to the risk of climate change through altered precipitation and evaporation. Rivers in the Narew basin in northeastern Poland are known for their valuable river and wetland ecosystems, many of them in pristine or near-pristine condition. The objective of this study was to assess changes in the environmental flow regime of the Narew river system, caused by climate change, as simulated by hydrological models with different degrees of physical characterization and spatial aggregation. Two models were assessed: the river basin scale model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the continental model of water availability and use WaterGAP. Future climate change scenarios were provided by two general circulation models coupled with the A2 emission scenario: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2. To assess the impact of climate change on environmental flows, a method based conceptually on the "range of variability" approach was used. The results indicate that the environmental flow regime in the Narew basin is subject to climate change risk, whose magnitude and spatial variability varies with climate model and hydrological modeling scale. Most of the analyzed sites experienced moderate impacts for the Generic Environmental Flow Indicator (GEFI), the Floodplain Inundation Indicator, and the River Habitat Availability Indicator. The consistency between SWAT and WaterGAP for GEFI was medium: in 55 to 66% of analyzed sites, the models suggested the same level of impact. Hence, we suggest that state-of-the-art, high-resolution, global- or continental-scale models, such as WaterGAP, could be useful tools for water management decision-makers and wetland conservation practitioners, whereas models such as SWAT should serve as a complementary tool for more specific, smaller-scale, local assessments. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Measurements and simulation of forest leaf area index and net primary productivity in Northern China.

PubMed

Wang, P; Sun, R; Hu, J; Zhu, Q; Zhou, Y; Li, L; Chen, J M

2007-11-01

Large scale process-based modeling is a useful approach to estimate distributions of global net primary productivity (NPP). In this paper, in order to validate an existing NPP model with observed data at site level, field experiments were conducted at three sites in northern China. One site is located in Qilian Mountain in Gansu Province, and the other two sites are in Changbaishan Natural Reserve and Dunhua County in Jilin Province. Detailed field experiments are discussed and field data are used to validate the simulated NPP. Remotely sensed images including Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+, 30 m spatial resolution in visible and near infrared bands) and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER, 15m spatial resolution in visible and near infrared bands) are used to derive maps of land cover, leaf area index, and biomass. Based on these maps, field measured data, soil texture and daily meteorological data, NPP of these sites are simulated for year 2001 with the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS). The NPP in these sites ranges from 80 to 800 gCm(-2)a(-1). The observed NPP agrees well with the modeled NPP. This study suggests that BEPS can be used to estimate NPP in northern China if remotely sensed images of high spatial resolution are available.

Characterizing the relationship between Asian tiger mosquito abundance and habitat in urban New Jersey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferwerda, Carolin

2009-12-01

Since its introduction to North America in 1987, the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) has spread rapidly. Due to its unique ecology and preference for container breeding sites, Ae. albopictus commonly inhabits urban/suburban areas and is often in close contact with humans. An aggressive pest, this mosquito species is a vector of multiple arboviruses. In order for mosquito control efforts to remain effective, control of this important vector must be guided by spatially explicit habitat models that aid in predicting mosquito outbreaks. Using linear regression, I determined the relationship between adult Ae. albopictus abundance and climate, census, and land use factors in nine urban/suburban study sites in central New Jersey. Systematically collected adult counts (females and males) from July to October 2008, served as estimates of abundance. Fine-scale land use/land cover data were obtained from object-oriented classifications of 2007 CIR orthophotos in Definiens eCognition. Mosquito abundance data were tested for spatial autocorrelation via Moran's I, semivariograms, and hotspot analysis in order to reveal consistent patterns in abundance. Spatial pattern analysis produced little evidence of consistent spatial autocorrelation, though several sites exhibited recurring hotspots, especially in areas near residential housing and vegetation. Stepwise multiple regression was able to explain 20-25 percent of variation in Ae. albopictus abundance at the 'backyard' or cell level and 72-78 percent of variation in abundance at the 'neighborhood' or study site level. Meteorological variables (temperature on the trap date and precipitation), census variables (vacant housing units and population density), and more detailed land use/land cover classes (deciduous woody vegetation, rights-of-way and vacant lots) were frequently selected in all eight models, though many other independent variables were included in the individual models. The results of the spatial statistics suggest that clustering may occur at a broader extent, while the superior predictive ability of the site level models over the finer grain cell level models supports this conclusion. Future work should focus on validating these models with 2009 field data and testing whether finer grain weather and census data enhance the models' predictive ability. Given the major differences between individual county models, future studies should further explore variations in Ae. albopictus habitat preferences in different geographic locations.

Monitoring carnivore populations at the landscape scale: occupancy modelling of tigers from sign surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, Kota Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Kumar, Narayanarao Samba; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Nichols, James D.; MacKenzie, Darryl I.

2011-01-01

1. Assessing spatial distributions of threatened large carnivores at landscape scales poses formidable challenges because of their rarity and elusiveness. As a consequence of logistical constraints, investigators typically rely on sign surveys. Most survey methods, however, do not explicitly address the central problem of imperfect detections of animal signs in the field, leading to underestimates of true habitat occupancy and distribution. 2. We assessed habitat occupancy for a tiger Panthera tigris metapopulation across a c. 38 000-km2 landscape in India, employing a spatially replicated survey to explicitly address imperfect detections. Ecological predictions about tiger presence were confronted with sign detection data generated from occupancy sampling of 205 sites, each of 188 km2. 3. A recent occupancy model that considers Markovian dependency among sign detections on spatial replicates performed better than the standard occupancy model (ΔAIC = 184·9). A formulation of this model that fitted the data best showed that density of ungulate prey and levels of human disturbance were key determinants of local tiger presence. Model averaging resulted in a replicate-level detection probability [inline image] = 0·17 (0·17) for signs and a tiger habitat occupancy estimate of [inline image] = 0·665 (0·0857) or 14 076 (1814) km2 of potential habitat of 21 167 km2. In contrast, a traditional presence-versus-absence approach underestimated occupancy by 47%. Maps of probabilities of local site occupancy clearly identified tiger source populations at higher densities and matched observed tiger density variations, suggesting their potential utility for population assessments at landscape scales. 4. Synthesis and applications. Landscape-scale sign surveys can efficiently assess large carnivore spatial distributions and elucidate the factors governing their local presence, provided ecological and observation processes are both explicitly modelled. Occupancy sampling using spatial replicates can be used to reliably and efficiently identify tiger population sources and help monitor metapopulations. Our results reinforce earlier findings that prey depletion and human disturbance are key drivers of local tiger extinctions and tigers can persist even in human-dominated landscapes through effective protection of source populations. Our approach facilitates efficient targeting of tiger conservation interventions and, more generally, provides a basis for the reliable integration of large carnivore monitoring data between local and landscape scales.

Modelling the sensitivity of river reaches to water abstraction: RAPHSA- a hydroecology tool for environmental managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaar, Megan; Laize, Cedric; Maddock, Ian; Acreman, Mike; Tanner, Kath; Peet, Sarah

2014-05-01

A key challenge for environmental managers is the determination of environmental flows which allow a maximum yield of water resources to be taken from surface and sub-surface sources, whilst ensuring sufficient water remains in the environment to support biota and habitats. It has long been known that sensitivity to changes in water levels resulting from river and groundwater abstractions varies between rivers. Whilst assessment at the catchment scale is ideal for determining broad pressures on water resources and ecosystems, assessment of the sensitivity of reaches to changes in flow has previously been done on a site-by-site basis, often with the application of detailed but time consuming techniques (e.g. PHABSIM). While this is appropriate for a limited number of sites, it is costly in terms of money and time resources and therefore not appropriate for application at a national level required by responsible licensing authorities. To address this need, the Environment Agency (England) is developing an operational tool to predict relationships between physical habitat and flow which may be applied by field staff to rapidly determine the sensitivity of physical habitat to flow alteration for use in water resource management planning. An initial model of river sensitivity to abstraction (defined as the change in physical habitat related to changes in river discharge) was developed using site characteristics and data from 66 individual PHABSIM surveys throughout the UK (Booker & Acreman, 2008). By applying a multivariate multiple linear regression analysis to the data to define habitat availability-flow curves using resource intensity as predictor variables, the model (known as RAPHSA- Rapid Assessment of Physical Habitat Sensitivity to Abstraction) is able to take a risk-based approach to modeled certainty. Site specific information gathered using desk-based, or a variable amount of field work can be used to predict the shape of the habitat- flow curves, with the uncertainty of estimates reducing as more information is collected. Creation of generalized physical habitat- discharge relationships by the model allows environmental managers to select the desired level of confidence in the modeled results, based on environmental risk and the level of resource investment available. Hence, resources can be better directed according to the level of certainty required at each site. This model is intended to provide managers with an alternative to the existing use of either expert opinion or resource intensive site- specific investigations in determining local environmental flows. Here, we outline the potential use of this tool by the Environment Agency in routine operational and investigation- specific scenarios using case studies to illustrate its use.

Modeling Land Application of Food-Processing Wastewater in the Central Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, Y.; Benito, P.; Miller, G.; McLaughlin, J.; Hou, Z.; Hermanowicz, S.; Mayer, U.

2007-12-01

California's Central Valley contains over 640 food-processing plants, serving a multi-billion dollar agricultural industry. These processors consume approximately 7.9 x 107 m3 of water per year. Approximately 80% of these processors discharge the resulting wastewater, which is typically high in organic matter, nitrogen, and salts, to land, and many of these use land application as a treatment method. Initial investigations revealed elevated salinity levels to be the most common form of groundwater degradation near land application sites, followed by concentrations of nitrogen compounds, namely ammonia and nitrate. Enforcement actions have been taken against multiple food processors, and the regulatory boards have begun to re-examine the land disposal permitting process. This paper summarizes a study that was commissioned in support of these actions. The study has multiple components which will be reviewed briefly, including: (1) characterization of the food-processing related waste stream; (2) fate and transport of the effluent waste stream in the unsaturated zone at the land application sites; (3) fate and transport of the effluent waste stream at the regional scale; (4) predictive uncertainty due to spatial variability and data scarcity at the land application sites and at the regional scale; (5) problem mitigation through off-site and in-situ actions; (6) long-term solutions. The emphasis of the talk will be placed on presenting and demonstrating a stochastic framework for modeling the transport and attenuation of these wastes in the vadose zone and in the saturated zone, and the related site characterization needs, as affected by site conditions, water table depth, waste water application rate, and waste constituent concentrations.

Using multi-scale distribution and movement effects along a montane highway to identify optimal crossing locations for a large-bodied mammal community.

PubMed

Schuster, Richard; Römer, Heinrich; Germain, Ryan R

2013-01-01

Roads are a major cause of habitat fragmentation that can negatively affect many mammal populations. Mitigation measures such as crossing structures are a proposed method to reduce the negative effects of roads on wildlife, but the best methods for determining where such structures should be implemented, and how their effects might differ between species in mammal communities is largely unknown. We investigated the effects of a major highway through south-eastern British Columbia, Canada on several mammal species to determine how the highway may act as a barrier to animal movement, and how species may differ in their crossing-area preferences. We collected track data of eight mammal species across two winters, along both the highway and pre-marked transects, and used a multi-scale modeling approach to determine the scale at which habitat characteristics best predicted preferred crossing sites for each species. We found evidence for a severe barrier effect on all investigated species. Freely-available remotely-sensed habitat landscape data were better than more costly, manually-digitized microhabitat maps in supporting models that identified preferred crossing sites; however, models using both types of data were better yet. Further, in 6 of 8 cases models which incorporated multiple spatial scales were better at predicting preferred crossing sites than models utilizing any single scale. While each species differed in terms of the landscape variables associated with preferred/avoided crossing sites, we used a multi-model inference approach to identify locations along the highway where crossing structures may benefit all of the species considered. By specifically incorporating both highway and off-highway data and predictions we were able to show that landscape context plays an important role for maximizing mitigation measurement efficiency. Our results further highlight the need for mitigation measures along major highways to improve connectivity between mammal populations, and illustrate how multi-scale data can be used to identify preferred crossing sites for different species within a mammal community.

Patterns in Greater Sage-grouse population dynamics correspond with public grazing records at broad scales.

PubMed

Monroe, Adrian P; Aldridge, Cameron L; Assal, Timothy J; Veblen, Kari E; Pyke, David A; Casazza, Michael L

2017-06-01

Human land use, such as livestock grazing, can have profound yet varied effects on wildlife interacting within common ecosystems, yet our understanding of land-use effects is often generalized from short-term, local studies that may not correspond with trends at broader scales. Here we used public land records to characterize livestock grazing across Wyoming, USA, and we used Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) as a model organism to evaluate responses to livestock management. With annual counts of male Sage-grouse from 743 leks (breeding display sites) during 2004-2014, we modeled population trends in response to grazing level (represented by a relative grazing index) and timing across a gradient in vegetation productivity as measured by the Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI). We found grazing can have both positive and negative effects on Sage-grouse populations depending on the timing and level of grazing. Sage-grouse populations responded positively to higher grazing levels after peak vegetation productivity, but populations declined when similar grazing levels occurred earlier, likely reflecting the sensitivity of cool-season grasses to grazing during peak growth periods. We also found support for the hypothesis that effects of grazing management vary with local vegetation productivity. These results illustrate the importance of broad-scale analyses by revealing patterns in Sage-grouse population trends that may not be inferred from studies at finer scales, and could inform sustainable grazing management in these ecosystems. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Patterns in Greater Sage-grouse population dynamics correspond with public grazing records at broad scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monroe, Adrian; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Assal, Timothy J.; Veblen, Kari E.; Pyke, David A.; Casazza, Michael L.

2017-01-01

Human land use, such as livestock grazing, can have profound yet varied effects on wildlife interacting within common ecosystems, yet our understanding of land-use effects is often generalized from short-term, local studies that may not correspond with trends at broader scales. Here we used public land records to characterize livestock grazing across Wyoming, USA, and we used Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) as a model organism to evaluate responses to livestock management. With annual counts of male Sage-grouse from 743 leks (breeding display sites) during 2004–2014, we modeled population trends in response to grazing level (represented by a relative grazing index) and timing across a gradient in vegetation productivity as measured by the Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI). We found grazing can have both positive and negative effects on Sage-grouse populations depending on the timing and level of grazing. Sage-grouse populations responded positively to higher grazing levels after peak vegetation productivity, but populations declined when similar grazing levels occurred earlier, likely reflecting the sensitivity of cool-season grasses to grazing during peak growth periods. We also found support for the hypothesis that effects of grazing management vary with local vegetation productivity. These results illustrate the importance of broad-scale analyses by revealing patterns in Sage-grouse population trends that may not be inferred from studies at finer scales, and could inform sustainable grazing management in these ecosystems.

Models of chromatin spatial organisation in the cell nucleus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicodemi, Mario

2014-03-01

In the cell nucleus chromosomes have a complex architecture serving vital functional purposes. Recent experiments have started unveiling the interaction map of DNA sites genome-wide, revealing different levels of organisation at different scales. The principles, though, which orchestrate such a complex 3D structure remain still mysterious. I will overview the scenario emerging from some classical polymer physics models of the general aspect of chromatin spatial organisation. The available experimental data, which can be rationalised in a single framework, support a picture where chromatin is a complex mixture of differently folded regions, self-organised across spatial scales according to basic physical mechanisms. I will also discuss applications to specific DNA loci, e.g. the HoxB locus, where models informed with biological details, and tested against targeted experiments, can help identifying the determinants of folding.

Assessment of the relationship between chlorophyll fluorescence and photosynthesis across scales from measurements and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Guanter, L.; Berry, J. A.; Tol, C. V. D.

2016-12-01

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is a novel optical tool for assessment of terrestrial photosynthesis (GPP). Recent work have shown the strong link between GPP and satellite retrievals of SIF at broad scales. However, critical gaps remain between short term small-scale mechanistic understanding and seasonal global observations. In this presentation, we provide a model-based analysis of the relationship between SIF and GPP across scales for diverse vegetation types and a range of meteorological conditions, with the ultimate focus on reproducing the environmental conditions during remote sensing measurements. The coupled fluorescence-photosynthesis model SCOPE is used to simulate GPP and SIF at the both leaf and canopy levels for 13 flux sites. Analyses were conducted to investigate the effects of temporal scaling, canopy structure, overpass time, and spectral domain on the relationship between SIF and GPP. The simulated SIF is highly non-linear with GPP at the leaf level and instantaneous time scale and tends to linearize when scaling to the canopy level and daily to seasonal scales. These relationships are consistent across a wide range of vegetation types. The relationship between SIF and GPP is primarily driven by absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR), especially at the seasonal scale, although the photosynthetic efficiency also contributes to strengthen the link between them. The linearization of their relationship from leaf to canopy and averaging over time is because the overall conditions of the canopy fall within the range of the linear responses of GPP and SIF to light and the photosynthetic capacity. Our results further show that the top-of-canopy relationships between simulated SIF and GPP have similar linearity regardless of whether we used the morning or midday satellite overpass times. These findings are confirmed by field measurements. In addition, the simulated red SIF at 685 nm has a similar relationship with GPP as that of far-red SIF at 740 nm at the canopy level.

Simulating Radionuclide Migrations of Low-level Wastes in Nearshore Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, C. C.; Li, M. H.; Chen, J. S.; Yeh, G. T.

2016-12-01

Tunnel disposal into nearshore mountains was tentatively selected as one of final disposal sites for low-level wastes in Taiwan. Safety assessment on radionuclide migrations in far-filed may involve geosphere processes under coastal environments and into nearshore ocean. In this study the 3-D HYDROFEOCHE5.6 numerical model was used to perform simulations of groundwater flow and radionuclide transport with decay chains. Domain of interest on the surface includes nearby watersheds delineated by digital elevation models and nearshore seabed. As deep as 800 m below the surface and 400 m below sea bed were considered for simulations. The disposal site was located at 200m below the surface. Release rates of radionuclides from near-field was estimated by analytical solutions of radionuclide diffusion with decay out of engineered barriers. Far-field safety assessments were performed starting from the release of radionuclides out of engineered barriers to a time scale of 10,000 years. Sensitivity analyses of geosphere and transport parameters were performed to improve our understanding of safety on final disposal of low-level waste in nearshore environments.

Influence of Microclimate on Semi-Arid Montane Conifer Forest Sapflux Velocity in Complex Terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirouin, K. R.; Barnard, D. M.; Barnard, H. R.

2016-12-01

Microclimate variation in complex terrain is key to our understanding of large-scale climate change effects on montane ecosystems. Modern climate models forecast that semi-arid montane ecosystems in the western United States are to experience increases in temperature, number of extreme drought events, and decreases in annual snowpack, all of which will potentially influence ecosystem water, carbon, and energy balances. In this study, we developed response curves that describe the relationships between stem sapflux velocity, air temperature (Tair), incoming solar radiation (SWin), soil temperature (Tsoil), and soil moisture content (VWC) in sites of Pinus contorta and Pinus ponderosa distributed along an elevation and aspect gradient in the montane zone of the Central Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA. Among sites we found sapflux velocity to be significantly correlated with all four environmental factors (p < 0.05), but most strongly with SWin and Tair. The response of sapflux velocity to SWin was logarithmic, whereas the response to Tair indicated a peak sapflux velocity at a site-specific temperature that declined with increasing Tair. Sapflux velocity also increased with increasing VWC, but decreased with increasing Tsoil. At south-facing sites, the initial increase in the logarithmic response curve for SWin leveled off at 150-250 W m-2, whereas for north-facing sites it leveled off at 50-125 W m-2. While the differences in the SWin response between aspects could be due to species physiological differences, the highest elevation south-facing P. contorta site behaved similarly to the south-facing P. ponderosa, suggesting that environmental drivers may dominate the response. In response to Tair, peak sapflux velocity occurred at 12-13 degrees C at all sites except the mid-slope north-facing P. contorta site, which also had the lowest Tsoil. The responses of stem sapflux velocity to climate drivers indicate that forest transpiration is regulated by microclimate gradients across small spatial scales in complex terrain, which need to be characterized in order to understand broader ecosystem dynamics and the role that large-scale climate change will play in these systems.

Observed and modeled patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the structure of the trade-wind layer

DOE PAGES

Nuijens, Louise; Medeiros, Brian; Sandu, Irina; ...

2015-11-06

We present patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the trade-wind boundary layer structure using long-term measurements at a site representative of dynamical regimes with moderate subsidence or weak ascent. We compare these with ECMWF’s Integrated Forecast System and 10 CMIP5 models. By using single-time step output at a single location, we find that models can produce a fairly realistic trade-wind layer structure in long-term means, but with unrealistic variability at shorter-time scales. The unrealistic variability in modeled cloudiness near the lifting condensation level (LCL) is due to stronger than observed relationships with mixed-layer relative humidity (RH) and temperature stratificationmore » at the mixed-layer top. Those relationships are weak in observations, or even of opposite sign, which can be explained by a negative feedback of convection on cloudiness. Cloudiness near cumulus tops at the tradewind inversion instead varies more pronouncedly in observations on monthly time scales, whereby larger cloudiness relates to larger surface winds and stronger trade-wind inversions. However, these parameters appear to be a prerequisite, rather than strong controlling factors on cloudiness, because they do not explain submonthly variations in cloudiness. Models underestimate the strength of these relationships and diverge in particular in their responses to large-scale vertical motion. No model stands out by reproducing the observed behavior in all respects. As a result, these findings suggest that climate models do not realistically represent the physical processes that underlie the coupling between trade-wind clouds and their environments in present-day climate, which is relevant for how we interpret modeled cloud feedbacks.« less

Observed and modeled patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the structure of the trade-wind layer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nuijens, Louise; Medeiros, Brian; Sandu, Irina

We present patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the trade-wind boundary layer structure using long-term measurements at a site representative of dynamical regimes with moderate subsidence or weak ascent. We compare these with ECMWF’s Integrated Forecast System and 10 CMIP5 models. By using single-time step output at a single location, we find that models can produce a fairly realistic trade-wind layer structure in long-term means, but with unrealistic variability at shorter-time scales. The unrealistic variability in modeled cloudiness near the lifting condensation level (LCL) is due to stronger than observed relationships with mixed-layer relative humidity (RH) and temperature stratificationmore » at the mixed-layer top. Those relationships are weak in observations, or even of opposite sign, which can be explained by a negative feedback of convection on cloudiness. Cloudiness near cumulus tops at the tradewind inversion instead varies more pronouncedly in observations on monthly time scales, whereby larger cloudiness relates to larger surface winds and stronger trade-wind inversions. However, these parameters appear to be a prerequisite, rather than strong controlling factors on cloudiness, because they do not explain submonthly variations in cloudiness. Models underestimate the strength of these relationships and diverge in particular in their responses to large-scale vertical motion. No model stands out by reproducing the observed behavior in all respects. As a result, these findings suggest that climate models do not realistically represent the physical processes that underlie the coupling between trade-wind clouds and their environments in present-day climate, which is relevant for how we interpret modeled cloud feedbacks.« less

The Effects of Ambient Conditions on Helicopter Harmonic Noise Radiation: Theory and Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenwood, Eric; Sim, Ben W.; Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.

2016-01-01

The effects of ambient atmospheric conditions, air temperature and density, on rotor harmonic noise radiation are characterized using theoretical models and experimental measurements of helicopter noise collected at three different test sites at elevations ranging from sea level to 7000 ft above sea level. Significant changes in the thickness, loading, and blade-vortex interaction noise levels and radiation directions are observed across the different test sites for an AS350 helicopter flying at the same indicated airspeed and gross weight. However, the radiated noise is shown to scale with ambient pressure when the flight condition of the helicopter is defined in nondimensional terms. Although the effective tip Mach number is identified as the primary governing parameter for thickness noise, the nondimensional weight coefficient also impacts lower harmonic loading noise levels, which contribute strongly to low frequency harmonic noise radiation both in and out of the plane of the horizon. Strategies for maintaining the same nondimensional rotor operating condition under different ambient conditions are developed using an analytical model of single main rotor helicopter trim and confirmed using a CAMRAD II model of the AS350 helicopter. The ability of the Fundamental Rotorcraft Acoustics Modeling from Experiments (FRAME) technique to generalize noise measurements made under one set of ambient conditions to make accurate noise predictions under other ambient conditions is also validated.

Infection Threshold for an Epidemic Model in Site and Bond Percolation Worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakisaka, Yukio; Yoshimura, Jin; Takeuchi, Yasuhiro; Sugiura, Koji; Tainaka, Kei-ichi

2010-02-01

We investigate an epidemic model on a square lattice with two protection treatments: prevention and quarantine. To explore the effects of both treatments, we apply the site and bond percolations. Computer simulations reveal that the threshold between endemic and disease-free phases can be represented by a single scaling law. The mean-field theory qualitatively predicts such infection dynamics and the scaling law.

Modeling canopy-level productivity: is the "big-leaf" simplification acceptable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprintsin, M.; Chen, J. M.

2009-05-01

The "big-leaf" approach to calculating the carbon balance of plant canopies assumes that canopy carbon fluxes have the same relative responses to the environment as any single unshaded leaf in the upper canopy. Widely used light use efficiency models are essentially simplified versions of the big-leaf model. Despite its wide acceptance, subsequent developments in the modeling of leaf photosynthesis and measurements of canopy physiology have brought into question the assumptions behind this approach showing that big leaf approximation is inadequate for simulating canopy photosynthesis because of the additional leaf internal control on carbon assimilation and because of the non-linear response of photosynthesis on leaf nitrogen and absorbed light, and changes in leaf microenvironment with canopy depth. To avoid this problem a sunlit/shaded leaf separation approach, within which the vegetation is treated as two big leaves under different illumination conditions, is gradually replacing the "big-leaf" strategy, for applications at local and regional scales. Such separation is now widely accepted as a more accurate and physiologically based approach for modeling canopy photosynthesis. Here we compare both strategies for Gross Primary Production (GPP) modeling using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) at local (tower footprint) scale for different land cover types spread over North America: two broadleaf forests (Harvard, Massachusetts and Missouri Ozark, Missouri); two coniferous forests (Howland, Maine and Old Black Spruce, Saskatchewan); Lost Creek shrubland site (Wisconsin) and Mer Bleue petland (Ontario). BEPS calculates carbon fixation by scaling Farquhar's leaf biochemical model up to canopy level with stomatal conductance estimated by a modified version of the Ball-Woodrow-Berry model. The "big-leaf" approach was parameterized using derived leaf level parameters scaled up to canopy level by means of Leaf Area Index. The influence of sunlit/shaded leaf separation on GPP prediction was evaluated accounting for the degree of the deviation of 3-dimensional leaf spatial distribution from the random case. More specifically, we compared and evaluated the behavior of both models showing the advantages of sunlit/shaded leaf separation strategy over a simplified big-leaf approach. Keywords: canopy photosynthesis, leaf area index, clumping index, remote sensing.

Detecting trends in regional ecosystem functioning: the importance of field data for calibrating and validating NEON airborne remote sensing instruments and science data products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCorkel, J.; Kuester, M. A.; Johnson, B. R.; Krause, K.; Kampe, T. U.; Moore, D. J.

2011-12-01

The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) is a research facility under development by the National Science Foundation to improve our understanding of and ability to forecast the impacts of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species on ecology. The infrastructure, designed to operate over 30 years or more, includes site-based flux tower and field measurements, coordinated with airborne remote sensing observations to observe key ecological processes over a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. NEON airborne data on vegetation biochemical, biophysical, and structural properties and on land use and land cover will be captured at 1 to 2 meter resolution by an imaging spectrometer, a small-footprint waveform-LiDAR and a high-resolution digital camera. Annual coverage of the 60 NEON sites and capacity to support directed research flights or respond to unexpected events will require three airborne observation platforms (AOP). The integration of field and airborne data with satellite observations and other national geospatial data for analysis, monitoring and input to ecosystem models will extend NEON observations to regions across the United States not directly sampled by the observatory. The different spatial scales and measurement methods make quantitative comparisons between remote sensing and field data, typically collected over small sample plots (e.g. < 0.2 ha), difficult. New approaches to developing temporal and spatial scaling relationships between these data are necessary to enable validation of airborne and satellite remote sensing data and for incorporation of these data into continental or global scale ecological models. In addition to consideration of the methods used to collect ground-based measurements, careful calibration of the remote sensing instrumentation and an assessment of the accuracy of algorithms used to derive higher-level science data products are needed. Furthermore, long-term consistency of the data collected by all three airborne instrument packages over the NEON sites requires traceability of the calibration to national standards, field-based verification of instrument calibration and stability in the aircraft environment, and an independent assessment of the quality of derived data products. This work describes the development of the calibration laboratory, early evaluation of field-based vicarious calibration, development of scaling relationships, and test flights. Complementary laboratory- and field-based calibration of the AOP in addition to consistency with on-board calibration methods provide confidence that low-level data such as radiance and surface reflectance measurements are accurate and comparable among different sensors. Algorithms that calculate higher-level data products including essential climate variables will be validated against equivalent ground- and satellite-based results. Such a validated data set across multiple spatial and temporal scales is key to enabling ecosystem models to forecast the effects of climate change, land-use change and invasive species on the continental scale.

Variability of community interaction networks in marine reserves and adjacent exploited areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Montano-Moctezuma, G.; Li, H.W.; Rossignol, P.A.

2008-01-01

Regional and small-scale local oceanographic conditions can lead to high variability in community structure even among similar habitats. Communities with identical species composition can depict distinct networks due to different levels of disturbance as well as physical and biological processes. In this study we reconstruct community networks in four different areas off the Oregon Coast by matching simulated communities with observed dynamics. We compared reserves with harvested areas. Simulations suggested that different community networks, but with the same species composition, can represent each study site. Differences were found in predator-prey interactions as well as non-predatory interactions between community members. In addition, each site can be represented as a set of models, creating alternative stages among sites. The set of alternative models that characterize each study area depicts a sequence of functional responses where each specific model or interaction structure creates different species composition patterns. Different management practices, either in the past or of the present, may lead to alternative communities. Our findings suggest that management strategies should be analyzed at a community level that considers the possible consequences of shifting from one community scenario to another. This analysis provides a novel conceptual framework to assess the consequences of different management options for ecological communities. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ocean Renewable Energy Research at U. New Hampshire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wosnik, M.; Baldwin, K.; White, C.; Carter, M.; Gress, D.; Swift, R.; Tsukrov, I.; Kraft, G.; Celikkol, B.

2008-11-01

The University of New Hampshire (UNH) is strategically positioned to develop and evaluate wave and tidal energy extraction technologies, with much of the required test site infrastructure in place already. Laboratory facilities (wave/tow tanks, flumes, water tunnels) are used to test concept validation models (scale 1:25--100) and design models (scale 1:10--30). The UNH Open Ocean Aquaculture (OOA) site located 1.6 km south of the Isles of Shoals (10 km off shore) and the General Sullivan Bridge testing facility in the Great Bay Estuary are used to test process models (scale 1:3--15) and prototype/demonstration models (scale 1:1-- 4) of wave energy and tidal energy extraction devices, respectively. Both test sites are easily accessible and in close proximity of UNH, with off-the-shelf availability. The Great Bay Estuary system is one of the most energetic tidally driven estuaries on the East Coast of the U.S. The current at the General Sullivan bridge test facility reliably exceeds four knots over part of the tidal cycle. The OOA site is a ten year old, well established offshore test facility, and is continually serviced by a dedicated research vessel and operations/diving crew. In addition to an overview of the physical resources, results of recent field testing of half- and full-scale hydrokinetic turbines, and an analysis of recent acoustic Doppler surveys of the tidal estuary will be presented.

Climate insensitivity of treeline in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, E. A.; Macias Fauria, M.

2011-12-01

Successful modelling efforts demonstrate that tree presence over a ~ 200 km2 alpine/subalpine area in the Front Ranges of the Canadian Rocky Mountains results from a multi-scale spatiotemporal process competition involving not only growing season temperatures but also topographical shelter, water availability, and substrate stability and availability. The study area was selected to represent the diversity of substrates and geomorphologic processes found in the Canadian Rockies, and ranges in elevation from 1400 to > 2800 meters above sea level. Tree presence was mapped at 10m resolution using a combination of remote sensing imagery (taken in 2008) and intensive ground truthing, and modelled with an ensemble of state-of-the-art environmental envelope models. Explanatory variables chosen represented not only temperature and moisture availability (computed over 1971-2000 climate normals), but also substrate diversity, slope angle and type, geomorphologic features, modelled regolith depth, and concavity/convexity of the terrain. Such variables were meant to serve as proxies for known convergent and divergent processes that occur on steep landscapes and that have profound influence on tree establishment and survival. Model performance was very high and revealed substrate and geomorphology to be the most important explanatory variables for tree presence in the area. Available high-resolution imagery for 1954 enabled the mapping of tree presence over most of the study area and the identification of changes in the distribution of trees over the last nearly six decades. Overall, the only major observed changes were related to post-fire stand recovery, and areas with treeline advance were insignificant at the landscape scale. Tree suitable sites were projected onto high resolution grids of late 21st century climatic conditions predicted by regional climate models driven by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Emissions scenario was A2 (as defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), at the higher end of emissions scenarios, and thus at the higher end of forecasted temperature increases. Projected changes in tree site availability were minimal at the landscape scale, as the presence of trees in the uppermost part of these forests largely depends on the existence of suitable sites largely linked to topography. Such places are the result of geomorphologic processes acting on a framework set by the structural geology of the region, and thus the appearance of new sites suitable for tree growth does not depend on short (i.e. yearly to decadal) time scales but on longer ones (i.e. centuries to millennia). This work has the strength of studying treeline over a whole area, thus avoiding potential biases in the regional representativity of local study sites, and warns against careless upscaling of site-based studies. Moreover, we suggest that the term 'treeline' is weak at a high-resolution landscape scale in our study area (i.e. young glaciated terrain) because the distribution of trees over the landscape is spatially irregular and most of the processes enabling or preventing tree presence occur over its whole elevational range.

Fidelity and outcomes in six integrated dual disorders treatment programs.

PubMed

Chandler, Daniel W

2011-02-01

Fidelity scores and outcomes were measured in six outpatient programs in California which implemented Integrated Dual Disorders Treatment (IDDT). Outcomes were measured for 1 year in four sites and 2 years in two sites; fidelity was assessed at 6 month intervals. Three of the six sites achieved high fidelity (at least a 4 on a 5 point fidelity scale) and three moderate fidelity (at least a 3). Retention in treatment, mental health functioning, stage of substance abuse treatment, abstinence, and psychiatric hospitalization were measured. Outcomes for individual programs were generally positive but not consistent within programs or across programs. Using pooled data in a longitudinal regression model with random effects at person level and adjustment of standard errors for clustering by site, change over time was not statistically significant for the primary outcomes. Fidelity scores had limited association with positive outcomes.

Hydrological response of karst systems to large-scale climate variability for different catchments of the French karst observatory network INSU/CNRS SNO KARST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, Nicolas; Labat, David; Jourde, Hervé; Lecoq, Nicolas; Mazzilli, Naomi

2017-04-01

The french karst observatory network SNO KARST is a national initiative from the National Institute for Earth Sciences and Astronomy (INSU) of the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS). It is also part of the new french research infrastructure for the observation of the critical zone OZCAR. SNO KARST is composed by several karst sites distributed over conterminous France which are located in different physiographic and climatic contexts (Mediterranean, Pyrenean, Jura mountain, western and northwestern shore near the Atlantic or the English Channel). This allows the scientific community to develop advanced research and experiments dedicated to improve understanding of the hydrological functioning of karst catchments. Here we used several sites of SNO KARST in order to assess the hydrological response of karst catchments to long-term variation of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Using NCEP reanalysis products and karst discharge, we analyzed the links between large-scale circulation and karst water resources variability. As karst hydrosystems are highly heterogeneous media, they behave differently across different time-scales : we explore the large-scale/local-scale relationships according to time-scales using a wavelet multiresolution approach of both karst hydrological variables and large-scale climate fields such as sea level pressure (SLP). The different wavelet components of karst discharge in response to the corresponding wavelet component of climate fields are either 1) compared to physico-chemical/geochemical responses at karst springs, or 2) interpreted in terms of hydrological functioning by comparing discharge wavelet components to internal components obtained from precipitation/discharge models using the KARSTMOD conceptual modeling platform of SNO KARST.

Assessment of the scale effect on statistical downscaling quality at a station scale using a weather generator-based model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The resolution of General Circulation Models (GCMs) is too coarse to assess the fine scale or site-specific impacts of climate change. Downscaling approaches including dynamical and statistical downscaling have been developed to meet this requirement. As the resolution of climate model increases, it...

Modeling the Ocean Tide for Tidal Power Generation Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawase, M.; Gedney, M.

2014-12-01

Recent years have seen renewed interest in the ocean tide as a source of energy for electrical power generation. Unlike in the 1960s, when the tidal barrage was the predominant method of power extraction considered and implemented, the current methodology favors operation of a free-stream turbine or an array of them in strong tidal currents. As tidal power generation moves from pilot-scale projects to actual array implementations, numerical modeling of tidal currents is expected to play an increasing role in site selection, resource assessment, array design, and environmental impact assessment. In this presentation, a simple, coupled ocean/estuary model designed for research into fundamental aspects of tidal power generation is described. The model consists of a Pacific Ocean-size rectangular basin and a connected fjord-like embayment with dimensions similar to that of Puget Sound, Washington, one of the potential power generation sites in the United States. The model is forced by an idealized lunar tide-generating potential. The study focuses on the energetics of a tidal system including tidal power extraction at both global and regional scales. The hyperbolic nature of the governing shallow water equations means consequence of tidal power extraction cannot be limited to the local waters, but is global in extent. Modeling power extraction with a regional model with standard boundary conditions introduces uncertainties of 3 ~ 25% in the power extraction estimate depending on the level of extraction. Power extraction in the model has a well-defined maximum (~800 MW in a standard case) that is in agreement with previous theoretical studies. Natural energy dissipation and tidal power extraction strongly interact; for a turbine array of a given capacity, the higher the level of natural dissipation the lower the power the array can extract. Conversely, power extraction leads to a decrease in the level of natural dissipation (Figure) as well as the tidal range and the current speed. In the standard case considered, at the maximum power extraction the tidal range in the estuary is reduced by 37% and the natural dissipation by 78% from the unperturbed state. Thus, environmental consequences of power generation are likely to become the limiting factor on the scale of resource development before the physical maximum is reached.

Statistical Downscaling in Multi-dimensional Wave Climate Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camus, P.; Méndez, F. J.; Medina, R.; Losada, I. J.; Cofiño, A. S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2009-04-01

Wave climate at a particular site is defined by the statistical distribution of sea state parameters, such as significant wave height, mean wave period, mean wave direction, wind velocity, wind direction and storm surge. Nowadays, long-term time series of these parameters are available from reanalysis databases obtained by numerical models. The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) technique is applied to characterize multi-dimensional wave climate, obtaining the relevant "wave types" spanning the historical variability. This technique summarizes multi-dimension of wave climate in terms of a set of clusters projected in low-dimensional lattice with a spatial organization, providing Probability Density Functions (PDFs) on the lattice. On the other hand, wind and storm surge depend on instantaneous local large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) fields while waves depend on the recent history of these fields (say, 1 to 5 days). Thus, these variables are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. In this work, a nearest-neighbors analog method is used to predict monthly multi-dimensional wave climate. This method establishes relationships between the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from numerical models (SLP fields as predictors) with local wave databases of observations (monthly wave climate SOM PDFs as predictand) to set up statistical models. A wave reanalysis database, developed by Puertos del Estado (Ministerio de Fomento), is considered as historical time series of local variables. The simultaneous SLP fields calculated by NCEP atmospheric reanalysis are used as predictors. Several applications with different size of sea level pressure grid and with different temporal domain resolution are compared to obtain the optimal statistical model that better represents the monthly wave climate at a particular site. In this work we examine the potential skill of this downscaling approach considering perfect-model conditions, but we will also analyze the suitability of this methodology to be used for seasonal forecast and for long-term climate change scenario projection of wave climate.

Analysing Amazonian forest productivity using a new individual and trait-based model (TFS v.1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fyllas, N. M.; Gloor, E.; Mercado, L. M.; Sitch, S.; Quesada, C. A.; Domingues, T. F.; Galbraith, D. R.; Torre-Lezama, A.; Vilanova, E.; Ramírez-Angulo, H.; Higuchi, N.; Neill, D. A.; Silveira, M.; Ferreira, L.; Aymard C., G. A.; Malhi, Y.; Phillips, O. L.; Lloyd, J.

2014-07-01

Repeated long-term censuses have revealed large-scale spatial patterns in Amazon basin forest structure and dynamism, with some forests in the west of the basin having up to a twice as high rate of aboveground biomass production and tree recruitment as forests in the east. Possible causes for this variation could be the climatic and edaphic gradients across the basin and/or the spatial distribution of tree species composition. To help understand causes of this variation a new individual-based model of tropical forest growth, designed to take full advantage of the forest census data available from the Amazonian Forest Inventory Network (RAINFOR), has been developed. The model allows for within-stand variations in tree size distribution and key functional traits and between-stand differences in climate and soil physical and chemical properties. It runs at the stand level with four functional traits - leaf dry mass per area (Ma), leaf nitrogen (NL) and phosphorus (PL) content and wood density (DW) varying from tree to tree - in a way that replicates the observed continua found within each stand. We first applied the model to validate canopy-level water fluxes at three eddy covariance flux measurement sites. For all three sites the canopy-level water fluxes were adequately simulated. We then applied the model at seven plots, where intensive measurements of carbon allocation are available. Tree-by-tree multi-annual growth rates generally agreed well with observations for small trees, but with deviations identified for larger trees. At the stand level, simulations at 40 plots were used to explore the influence of climate and soil nutrient availability on the gross (ΠG) and net (ΠN) primary production rates as well as the carbon use efficiency (CU). Simulated ΠG, ΠN and CU were not associated with temperature. On the other hand, all three measures of stand level productivity were positively related to both mean annual precipitation and soil nutrient status. Sensitivity studies showed a clear importance of an accurate parameterisation of within- and between-stand trait variability on the fidelity of model predictions. For example, when functional tree diversity was not included in the model (i.e. with just a single plant functional type with mean basin-wide trait values) the predictive ability of the model was reduced. This was also the case when basin-wide (as opposed to site-specific) trait distributions were applied within each stand. We conclude that models of tropical forest carbon, energy and water cycling should strive to accurately represent observed variations in functionally important traits across the range of relevant scales.

Corticosterone metabolite concentrations in greater sage-grouse are positively associated with the presence of cattle grazing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jankowski, M.D.; Russell, Robin E.; Franson, J. Christian; Dusek, Robert J.; Hines, M.K.; Gregg, M.; Hofmeister, Erik K.

2014-01-01

The sagebrush biome in the western United States is home to the imperiled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and encompasses rangelands used for cattle production. Cattle grazing activities have been implicated in the range-wide decline of the sage-grouse, but no studies have investigated the relationship between the physiological condition of sage-grouse and the presence of grazing cattle. We sampled 329 sage-grouse across four sites (two grazed and two ungrazed) encompassing 13 600 km2 during the spring and late summer–early autumn of 2005 to evaluate whether demographic factors, breeding status, plasma protein levels, and residence in a cattle-grazed habitat were associated with the stress hormone corticosterone. Corticosterone was measured in feces as immunoreactive corticosterone metabolites (ICM). Males captured during the lekking season exhibited higher ICM levels than all others. Prenesting female sage-grouse captured in a grazed site had higher ICM levels than those in ungrazed sites and prenesting female plasma protein levels were negatively correlated with ICM concentrations. With the use of a small-scale spatial model, we identified a positive correlation between cattle pat count and sage-grouse ICM levels. Our model indicated that ICM levels increased by 2.60 ng · g-1 dry feces for every increase in the number of cow pats found in the vicinity. Management practices will benefit from future research regarding the consistency and mechanism(s) responsible for this association and, importantly, how ICM levels and demographic rates are related in this species of conservation concern.

To fish or not to fish: factors at multiple scales affecting artisanal fishers' readiness to exit a declining fishery.

PubMed

Daw, Tim M; Cinner, Joshua E; McClanahan, Timothy R; Brown, Katrina; Stead, Selina M; Graham, Nicholas A J; Maina, Joseph

2012-01-01

Globally, fisheries are challenged by the combined impacts of overfishing, degradation of ecosystems and impacts of climate change, while fisheries livelihoods are further pressured by conservation policy imperatives. Fishers' adaptive responses to these pressures, such as exiting from a fishery to pursue alternative livelihoods, determine their own vulnerability, as well as the potential for reducing fishing effort and sustaining fisheries. The willingness and ability to make particular adaptations in response to change, such as exiting from a declining fishery, is influenced by economic, cultural and institutional factors operating at scales from individual fishers to national economies. Previous studies of exit from fisheries at single or few sites, offer limited insight into the relative importance of individual and larger-scale social and economic factors. We asked 599 fishers how they would respond to hypothetical scenarios of catch declines in 28 sites in five western Indian Ocean countries. We investigated how socioeconomic variables at the individual-, household- and site-scale affected whether they would exit fisheries. Site-level factors had the greatest influence on readiness to exit, but these relationships were contrary to common predictions. Specifically, higher levels of infrastructure development and economic vitality - expected to promote exit from fisheries - were associated with less readiness to exit. This may be due to site level histories of exit from fisheries, greater specialisation of fishing households, or higher rewards from fishing in more economically developed sites due to technology, market access, catch value and government subsidies. At the individual and household scale, fishers from households with more livelihood activities, and fishers with lower catch value were more willing to exit. These results demonstrate empirically how adaptive responses to change are influenced by factors at multiple scales, and highlight the importance of understanding natural resource-based livelihoods in the context of the wider economy and society.

Forest Carbon Storage in the Northern Midwest, USA: A Bottom-Up Scaling Approach Combining Local Meteorological and Biometric Data With Regional Forest Inventories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curtis, P. S.; Gough, C. M.; Vogel, C. S.

2005-12-01

Carbon (C) storage increasingly is considered an important part of the economic return of forestlands, making easily parameterized models for assessing current and future C storage important for both ecosystem and money managers. For the deciduous forests of the northern midwest, USA, detailed information relating annual C storage to local site characteristics can be combined with spatially extensive forest inventories to produce simple, robust models of C storage useful at a variety of scales. At the University of Michigan Biological Station (45o35`' N, 84o42`' W) we measured C storage, or net ecosystem production (NEP), in 65 forest stands varying in age, disturbance history, and productivity (site index) using biometric methods, and independently measured net C exchange at the landscape level using meteorological methods. Our biometric and meteorological estimates of NEP converged to within 1% of each other over five years, providing important confirmation of the robustness of these two approaches applied within northern deciduous forests (Gough et al. 2005). We found a significant relationship between NEP, stand age ( A, yrs), and site index ( Is, m), where NEP = 0.134 + 0.022 * (LN[ A* Is]) (r2 = 0.50, P < 0.02). Site index is an integrated measure of site quality, expressed as 50 yr canopy height. We then used stand age and site index data from forests of similar species composition reported in the USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis database (ncrs2.fs.fed.us/4801/fiadb/) to estimate forest C storage at different scales across the upper midwest, Great Lakes region. Model estimates were validated against independent estimates of C storage for other forests in the region. At the local ecosystem-level (~1 km2) C storage averaged 1.52 Mg ha-1 yr-1. Scaling to the two-county area surrounding our meteorological and biometric study sites, average stand age decreased and site index increased, resulting in estimated storage of 1.62 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, or 0.22 Tg C yr-1 in the 1350 km2 of deciduous forest in this area. For the state of Michigan (31,537 km2 of deciduous forest), average uptake was estimated at 1.55 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, or 4.9 Tg C yr-1 total storage. For the three state region encompassing Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin (97,769 km2 of deciduous forest), we estimated average storage in these forests of 1.51 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, or 14.1 Tg C yr-1 total storage. This storage represents ~ 13 % of regional anthropogenic C emissions (US Department of Energy, 2003). This modest rate of C storage by forests in the region may decrease due to changes in forest succession and land-use, and also in response to climate-driven shifts in the balance between photosynthesis and respiration. Gough C.M., Vogel C.S., Schmid H.P., Su H.-B., and Curtis P.S. 2005. Multi-year convergence of biometric and meteorological estimates of forest carbon storage. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, In Press.

Design of Buoys for Mounting Wind Turbines at Exposed Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdoğan, Beytullah; Çelıkkol, Barbaros; Swift, Robinson

2018-04-01

In this study, two designs for a buoy capable of supporting a 10 kW wind turbine and its tower were developed to operate at the University of New Hampshire's Center of Ocean Renewable Energy testing site located off the Isles of Shoals, New Hampshire. The buoys are to be moored by a catenary chain system. To evaluate wave response, two Froude-scaled models were constructed, tested, and compared at the Ocean Engineering wave tank at the University of New Hampshire. These buoys have been implemented and compared with wave tank measurements of the spar displacement at a reference elevation 2.44 m above the mean water level.

An ecosystem-scale perspective of the net land methanol flux. Synthesis of micrometeorological flux measurements

DOE PAGES

Wohlfahrt, G.; Amelynck, C.; Ammann, C.; ...

2015-07-09

Methanol is the second most abundant volatile organic compound in the troposphere and plays a significant role in atmospheric chemistry. While there is consensus about the dominant role of living plants as the major source and the reaction with OH as the major sink of methanol, global methanol budgets diverge considerably in terms of source/sink estimates, reflecting uncertainties in the approaches used to model and the empirical data used to separately constrain these terms. Here we compiled micrometeorological methanol flux data from eight different study sites and reviewed the corresponding literature in order to provide a first cross-site synthesis ofmore » the terrestrial ecosystem-scale methanol exchange and present an independent data-driven view of the land–atmosphere methanol exchange. Our study shows that the controls of plant growth on production, and thus the methanol emission magnitude, as well as stomatal conductance on the hourly methanol emission variability, established at the leaf level, hold across sites at the ecosystem level. Unequivocal evidence for bi-directional methanol exchange at the ecosystem scale is presented. Deposition, which at some sites even exceeds methanol emissions, represents an emerging feature of ecosystem-scale measurements and is likely related to environmental factors favouring the formation of surface wetness. Methanol may adsorb to or dissolve in this surface water and eventually be chemically or biologically removed from it. Management activities in agriculture and forestry are shown to increase local methanol emission by orders of magnitude; however, they are neglected at present in global budgets. While contemporary net land methanol budgets are overall consistent with the grand mean of the micrometeorological methanol flux measurements, we caution that the present approach of simulating methanol emission and deposition separately is prone to opposing systematic errors and does not allow for full advantage to be taken of the rich information content of micrometeorological flux measurements.« less

An ecosystem-scale perspective of the net land methanol flux: synthesis of micrometeorological flux measurements

PubMed Central

Wohlfahrt, G.; Amelynck, C.; Ammann, C.; Arneth, A.; Bamberger, I.; Goldstein, A. H.; Gu, L.; Guenther, A.; Hansel, A.; Heinesch, B.; Holst, T.; Hörtnagl, L.; Karl, T.; Laffineur, Q.; Neftel, A.; McKinney, K.; Munger, J. W.; Pallardy, S. G.; Schade, G. W.; Seco, R.; Schoon, N.

2015-01-01

Methanol is the second most abundant volatile organic compound in the troposphere and plays a significant role in atmospheric chemistry. While there is consensus about the dominant role of living plants as the major source and the reaction with OH as the major sink of methanol, global methanol budgets diverge considerably in terms of source/sink estimates reflecting uncertainties in the approaches used to model, and the empirical data used to separately constrain these terms. Here we compiled micrometeorological methanol flux data from eight different study sites and reviewed the corresponding literature in order to provide a first cross-site synthesis of the terrestrial ecosystem-scale methanol exchange and present an independent data-driven view of the land–atmosphere methanol exchange. Our study shows that the controls of plant growth on the production, and thus the methanol emission magnitude, and stomatal conductance on the hourly methanol emission variability, established at the leaf level, hold across sites at the ecosystem-level. Unequivocal evidence for bi-directional methanol exchange at the ecosystem scale is presented. Deposition, which at some sites even exceeds methanol emissions, represents an emerging feature of ecosystem-scale measurements and is likely related to environmental factors favouring the formation of surface wetness. Methanol may adsorb to or dissolve in this surface water and eventually be chemically or biologically removed from it. Management activities in agriculture and forestry are shown to increase local methanol emission by orders of magnitude; they are however neglected at present in global budgets. While contemporary net land methanol budgets are overall consistent with the grand mean of the micrometeorological methanol flux measurements, we caution that the present approach of simulating methanol emission and deposition separately is prone to opposing systematic errors and does not allow taking full advantage of the rich information content of micrometeorological flux measurements. PMID:25983744

Flyway-scale variation in plasma triglyceride levels as an index of refueling rate in spring-migrating western sandpipers (Calidris mauri)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, T.D.; Warnock, N.; Takekawa, John Y.; Bishop, M.A.

2007-01-01

We combined radiotelemetry, plasma metabolite analyses, and macro-invertebrate prey sampling to investigate variation in putative fattening rates (estimated as plasma triglyceride levels) at the flyway scale in Western Sandpipers (Calidris mauri) migrating between Punta Banda, Mexico (31°N), and Hartney Bay, Alaska (60°N), a distance of 4,240 km. Birds were caught at a wintering site (San Francisco Bay) and eight stopover sites along this Pacific Flyway. Body mass was higher in females than in males at six sites, but variation was not correlated with latitude for either sex, and the relationship of change in mass by date within sites was uninformative with regard to possible latitudinal variation in fattening rates. At San Francisco Bay, triglyceride levels were higher in the spring than in the winter. Mean plasma triglyceride varied among stopover sites, and there was a significant linear trend of increasing triglyceride levels with latitude as birds migrated north. At San Francisco Bay, length of stay was negatively related to triglyceride levels. However, plasma triglyceride levels at wintering or initial stopover sites (San Francisco and Punta Banda) did not predict individual variation in subsequent rates of travel during migration. We found no significant relationship between triglyceride levels and prey biomass at different stopover sites, which suggests that the latitudinal pattern is not explained by latitudinal changes in food availability. Rather, we suggest that differences in physiology of migratory birds at southern versus northern stopover sites or behavioral differences may allow birds to sustain higher fattening rates closer to the breeding grounds.

On-line application of near-infrared spectroscopy for monitoring water levels in parts per million in a manufacturing-scale distillation process.

PubMed

Lambertus, Gordon; Shi, Zhenqi; Forbes, Robert; Kramer, Timothy T; Doherty, Steven; Hermiller, James; Scully, Norma; Wong, Sze Wing; LaPack, Mark

2014-01-01

An on-line analytical method based on transmission near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for the quantitative determination of water concentrations (in parts per million) was developed and applied to the manufacture of a pharmaceutical intermediate. Calibration models for water analysis, built at the development site and applied at the manufacturing site, were successfully demonstrated during six manufacturing runs at a 250-gallon scale. The water measurements will be used as a forward-processing control point following distillation of a toluene product solution prior to use in a Grignard reaction. The most significant impact of using this NIRS-based process analytical technology (PAT) to replace off-line measurements is the significant reduction in the risk of operator exposure through the elimination of sampling of a severely lachrymatory and mutagenic compound. The work described in this report illustrates the development effort from proof-of-concept phase to manufacturing implementation.

An Integrative Observing and Modeling Approach for the Physiological Understanding of Sun-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, H.; Kato, T.; Saitoh, Y.; Noda, H.; Kikosaka, K.; Ichii, K.; Nasahara, K. N.

2016-12-01

Satellite-derived sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is expected to provides a pathway to link leaf level photosynthesis to global GPP. Existing studies have stressed how well the satellite-derived SIF is correlated with the eddy covariance and/or modeled GPPs. There are some challenges in SIF interpretation because the satellite-derived SIF is a mixture of fluorescence emission from sunlit and shaded leaves and multiple scatterings of fluorescence within plant canopies. In this presentation, we show observation and modeling results around Japan and discuss how the integrative observing and modeling approach potentially overcomes the gaps in-between satellite SIF and photosynthesis reaction within leaves. We have analyzed ground-based SIF monitoring systems "Phenological Eye Network (PEN)". PEN covers several eddy flux sites in Japan and is equipped with spectroradiometer (MS-700) since 2003 (at an earliest site). The computed seasonal SIF variations in the different ecosystems show environmental dependency of SIF and GPP. Another ground-based system we are now developing is the vegetation lidar system named LIFS (Laser-Induced Fluorescence Spectrum), which can offer eco-physiological information of plants. LIFS is consisted of a pulsed UV (355 nm) laser, a telescope, a spectrometer/filter, and a gated image-intensified CCD detector. This system has been using to remotely monitor tree growth status, chlorophyll contents in leaves and so on. The physical and physiological theories are necessary for understanding the observed SIF under various environmental conditions. We have been developing leaf to plant canopy scale photosynthesis and SIF models as precise as possible. The developed model has been used to understand how the leaf-level SIF emission can be related to the canopy scale SIF, which enables to investigate the top of canopy SIF observed from ground-based and satellite-derived SIF measurements.

Use of airborne lidar data to improve plant species richness and diversity monitoring in lowland and mountain forests

PubMed Central

Durrieu, Sylvie; Gosselin, Frédéric; Herpigny, Basile

2017-01-01

We explored the potential of airborne laser scanner (ALS) data to improve Bayesian models linking biodiversity indicators of the understory vegetation to environmental factors. Biodiversity was studied at plot level and models were built to investigate species abundance for the most abundant plants found on each study site, and for ecological group richness based on light preference. The usual abiotic explanatory factors related to climate, topography and soil properties were used in the models. ALS data, available for two contrasting study sites, were used to provide biotic factors related to forest structure, which was assumed to be a key driver of understory biodiversity. Several ALS variables were found to have significant effects on biodiversity indicators. However, the responses of biodiversity indicators to forest structure variables, as revealed by the Bayesian model outputs, were shown to be dependent on the abiotic environmental conditions characterizing the study areas. Lower responses were observed on the lowland site than on the mountainous site. In the latter, shade-tolerant and heliophilous species richness was impacted by vegetation structure indicators linked to light penetration through the canopy. However, to reveal the full effects of forest structure on biodiversity indicators, forest structure would need to be measured over much wider areas than the plot we assessed. It seems obvious that the forest structure surrounding the field plots can impact biodiversity indicators measured at plot level. Various scales were found to be relevant depending on: the biodiversity indicators that were modelled, and the ALS variable. Finally, our results underline the utility of lidar data in abundance and richness models to characterize forest structure with variables that are difficult to measure in the field, either due to their nature or to the size of the area they relate to. PMID:28902920

Near infrared spectroscopy to estimate the temperature reached on burned soils: strategies to develop robust models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerrero, César; Pedrosa, Elisabete T.; Pérez-Bejarano, Andrea; Keizer, Jan Jacob

2014-05-01

The temperature reached on soils is an important parameter needed to describe the wildfire effects. However, the methods for measure the temperature reached on burned soils have been poorly developed. Recently, the use of the near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has been pointed as a valuable tool for this purpose. The NIR spectrum of a soil sample contains information of the organic matter (quantity and quality), clay (quantity and quality), minerals (such as carbonates and iron oxides) and water contents. Some of these components are modified by the heat, and each temperature causes a group of changes, leaving a typical fingerprint on the NIR spectrum. This technique needs the use of a model (or calibration) where the changes in the NIR spectra are related with the temperature reached. For the development of the model, several aliquots are heated at known temperatures, and used as standards in the calibration set. This model offers the possibility to make estimations of the temperature reached on a burned sample from its NIR spectrum. However, the estimation of the temperature reached using NIR spectroscopy is due to changes in several components, and cannot be attributed to changes in a unique soil component. Thus, we can estimate the temperature reached by the interaction between temperature and the thermo-sensible soil components. In addition, we cannot expect the uniform distribution of these components, even at small scale. Consequently, the proportion of these soil components can vary spatially across the site. This variation will be present in the samples used to construct the model and also in the samples affected by the wildfire. Therefore, the strategies followed to develop robust models should be focused to manage this expected variation. In this work we compared the prediction accuracy of models constructed with different approaches. These approaches were designed to provide insights about how to distribute the efforts needed for the development of robust models, since this step is the bottle-neck of this technique. In the first approach, a plot-scale model was used to predict the temperature reached in samples collected in other plots from the same site. In a plot-scale model, all the heated aliquots come from a unique plot-scale sample. As expected, the results obtained with this approach were deceptive, because this approach was assuming that a plot-scale model would be enough to represent the whole variability of the site. The accuracy (measured as the root mean square error of prediction, thereinafter RMSEP) was 86ºC, and the bias was also high (>30ºC). In the second approach, the temperatures predicted through several plot-scale models were averaged. The accuracy was improved (RMSEP=65ºC) respect the first approach, because the variability from several plots was considered and biased predictions were partially counterbalanced. However, this approach implies more efforts, since several plot-scale models are needed. In the third approach, the predictions were obtained with site-scale models. These models were constructed with aliquots from several plots. In this case, the results were accurate, since the RMSEP was around 40ºC, the bias was very small (<1ºC) and the R2 was 0.92. As expected, this approach clearly outperformed the second approach, in spite of the fact that the same efforts were needed. In a plot-scale model, only one interaction between temperature and soil components was modelled. However, several different interactions between temperature and soil components were present in the calibration matrix of a site-scale model. Consequently, the site-scale models were able to model the temperature reached excluding the influence of the differences in soil composition, resulting in more robust models respect that variation. Summarizing, the results were highlighting the importance of an adequate strategy to develop robust and accurate models with moderate efforts, and how a wrong strategy can result in deceptive predictions.

Management of Chronic Periodontitis Using Subgingival Irrigation of Ozonized Water: A Clinical and Microbiological Study.

PubMed

Issac, Annie V; Mathew, Jayan Jacob; Ambooken, Majo; Kachappilly, Arun Jose; Pk, Ajithkumar; Johny, Thomas; Vk, Linith; Samuel, Anju

2015-08-01

Adjunctive use of professional subgingival irrigation with scaling and root planing (SRP) has been found to be beneficial in eradicating the residual microorganisms in the pocket. To evaluate the effect of ozonized water subgingival irrigation on microbiologic parameters and clinical parameters namely Gingival index, probing pocket depth, and clinical attachment level. Thirty chronic periodontitis patients with probing pocket depth ≥6mm on at least one tooth on contra lateral sides of opposite arches were included in the study. The test sites were subjected to ozonized water subgingival irrigation with subgingival irrigation device fitted with a modified subgingival tip. Control sites were subjected to scaling and root planing only. The following clinical parameters were recorded initially and after 4 weeks at the test sites and control sites. Plaque Index, Gingival Index, probing pocket depth, clinical attachment level. Microbiologic sampling was done for the test at the baseline, after scaling, immediately after ozonized water subgingival irrigation and after 4 weeks. In control sites microbiologic sampling was done at the baseline, after scaling and after 4 weeks. The following observations were made after 4 weeks. The results were statistically analysed using independent t-test and paired t-test. Test sites showed a greater reduction in pocket depth and gain in clinical attachment compared to control sites. The total anaerobic counts were significantly reduced by ozonized water subgingival irrigation along with SRP compared to SRP alone. Ozonized water subgingival irrigation can improve the clinical and microbiological parameters in patients with chronic periodontitis when used as an adjunct to scaling and root planing.

Viking High-Resolution Topography and Mars '01 Site Selection: Application to the White Rock Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, K. L.; Kirk, Randolph L.; Mackinnon, D. J.; Howington-Kraus, E.

1999-06-01

Definition of the local topography of the Mars '01 Lander site is crucial for assessment of lander safety and rover trafficability. According to Golombek et al., steep surface slopes may (1) cause retro-rockets to be fired too early or late for a safe landing, (2) the landing site slope needs to be < 1deg to ensure lander stability, and (3) a nearly level site is better for power generation of both the lander and the rover and for rover trafficability. Presently available datasets are largely inadequate to determine surface slope at scales pertinent to landing-site issues. Ideally, a topographic model of the entire landing site at meter-scale resolution would permit the best assessment of the pertinent topographic issues. MOLA data, while providing highly accurate vertical measurements, are inadequate to address slopes along paths of less than several hundred meters, because of along-track data spacings of hundreds of meters and horizontal errors in positioning of 500 to 2000 m. The capability to produce stereotopography from MOC image pairs is not yet in hand, nor can we necessarily expect a suitable number of stereo image pairs to be acquired. However, for a limited number of sites, high-resolution Viking stereo imaging is available at tens of meters horizontal resolution, capable of covering landing-ellipse sized areas. Although we would not necessarily suggest that the chosen Mars '01 Lander site should be located where good Viking stereotopography is available, an assessment of typical surface slopes at these scales for a range of surface types may be quite valuable in landing-site selection. Thus this study has a two-fold application: (1) to support the proposal of White Rock as a candidate Mars '01 Lander site, and (2) to evaluate how Viking high resolution stereotopography may be of value in the overall Mars '01 Lander site selection process.

Air pollution exposure prediction approaches used in air pollution epidemiology studies.

PubMed

Özkaynak, Halûk; Baxter, Lisa K; Dionisio, Kathie L; Burke, Janet

2013-01-01

Epidemiological studies of the health effects of outdoor air pollution have traditionally relied upon surrogates of personal exposures, most commonly ambient concentration measurements from central-site monitors. However, this approach may introduce exposure prediction errors and misclassification of exposures for pollutants that are spatially heterogeneous, such as those associated with traffic emissions (e.g., carbon monoxide, elemental carbon, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter). We review alternative air quality and human exposure metrics applied in recent air pollution health effect studies discussed during the International Society of Exposure Science 2011 conference in Baltimore, MD. Symposium presenters considered various alternative exposure metrics, including: central site or interpolated monitoring data, regional pollution levels predicted using the national scale Community Multiscale Air Quality model or from measurements combined with local-scale (AERMOD) air quality models, hybrid models that include satellite data, statistically blended modeling and measurement data, concentrations adjusted by home infiltration rates, and population-based human exposure model (Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation, and Air Pollutants Exposure models) predictions. These alternative exposure metrics were applied in epidemiological applications to health outcomes, including daily mortality and respiratory hospital admissions, daily hospital emergency department visits, daily myocardial infarctions, and daily adverse birth outcomes. This paper summarizes the research projects presented during the symposium, with full details of the work presented in individual papers in this journal issue.

Multi-scale Modeling of the Evolution of a Large-Scale Nourishment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luijendijk, A.; Hoonhout, B.

2016-12-01

Morphological predictions are often computed using a single morphological model commonly forced with schematized boundary conditions representing the time scale of the prediction. Recent model developments are now allowing us to think and act differently. This study presents some recent developments in coastal morphological modeling focusing on flexible meshes, flexible coupling between models operating at different time scales, and a recently developed morphodynamic model for the intertidal and dry beach. This integrated modeling approach is applied to the Sand Engine mega nourishment in The Netherlands to illustrate the added-values of this integrated approach both in accuracy and computational efficiency. The state-of-the-art Delft3D Flexible Mesh (FM) model is applied at the study site under moderate wave conditions. One of the advantages is that the flexibility of the mesh structure allows a better representation of the water exchange with the lagoon and corresponding morphological behavior than with the curvilinear grid used in the previous version of Delft3D. The XBeach model is applied to compute the morphodynamic response to storm events in detail incorporating the long wave effects on bed level changes. The recently developed aeolian transport and bed change model AeoLiS is used to compute the bed changes in the intertidal and dry beach area. In order to enable flexible couplings between the three abovementioned models, a component-based environment has been developed using the BMI method. This allows a serial coupling of Delft3D FM and XBeach steered by a control module that uses a hydrodynamic time series as input (see figure). In addition, a parallel online coupling, with information exchange in each timestep will be made with the AeoLiS model that predicts the bed level changes at the intertidal and dry beach area. This study presents the first years of evolution of the Sand Engine computed with the integrated modelling approach. Detailed comparisons are made between the observed and computed morphological behaviour for the Sand Engine on an aggregated as well as sub-system level.

Musite, a tool for global prediction of general and kinase-specific phosphorylation sites.

PubMed

Gao, Jianjiong; Thelen, Jay J; Dunker, A Keith; Xu, Dong

2010-12-01

Reversible protein phosphorylation is one of the most pervasive post-translational modifications, regulating diverse cellular processes in various organisms. High throughput experimental studies using mass spectrometry have identified many phosphorylation sites, primarily from eukaryotes. However, the vast majority of phosphorylation sites remain undiscovered, even in well studied systems. Because mass spectrometry-based experimental approaches for identifying phosphorylation events are costly, time-consuming, and biased toward abundant proteins and proteotypic peptides, in silico prediction of phosphorylation sites is potentially a useful alternative strategy for whole proteome annotation. Because of various limitations, current phosphorylation site prediction tools were not well designed for comprehensive assessment of proteomes. Here, we present a novel software tool, Musite, specifically designed for large scale predictions of both general and kinase-specific phosphorylation sites. We collected phosphoproteomics data in multiple organisms from several reliable sources and used them to train prediction models by a comprehensive machine-learning approach that integrates local sequence similarities to known phosphorylation sites, protein disorder scores, and amino acid frequencies. Application of Musite on several proteomes yielded tens of thousands of phosphorylation site predictions at a high stringency level. Cross-validation tests show that Musite achieves some improvement over existing tools in predicting general phosphorylation sites, and it is at least comparable with those for predicting kinase-specific phosphorylation sites. In Musite V1.0, we have trained general prediction models for six organisms and kinase-specific prediction models for 13 kinases or kinase families. Although the current pretrained models were not correlated with any particular cellular conditions, Musite provides a unique functionality for training customized prediction models (including condition-specific models) from users' own data. In addition, with its easily extensible open source application programming interface, Musite is aimed at being an open platform for community-based development of machine learning-based phosphorylation site prediction applications. Musite is available at http://musite.sourceforge.net/.

A reduced-order modeling approach to represent subgrid-scale hydrological dynamics for land-surface simulations: application in a polygonal tundra landscape

DOE PAGES

Pau, G. S. H.; Bisht, G.; Riley, W. J.

2014-09-17

Existing land surface models (LSMs) describe physical and biological processes that occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. For example, biogeochemical and hydrological processes responsible for carbon (CO 2, CH 4) exchanges with the atmosphere range from the molecular scale (pore-scale O 2 consumption) to tens of kilometers (vegetation distribution, river networks). Additionally, many processes within LSMs are nonlinearly coupled (e.g., methane production and soil moisture dynamics), and therefore simple linear upscaling techniques can result in large prediction error. In this paper we applied a reduced-order modeling (ROM) technique known as "proper orthogonal decomposition mapping method" thatmore » reconstructs temporally resolved fine-resolution solutions based on coarse-resolution solutions. We developed four different methods and applied them to four study sites in a polygonal tundra landscape near Barrow, Alaska. Coupled surface–subsurface isothermal simulations were performed for summer months (June–September) at fine (0.25 m) and coarse (8 m) horizontal resolutions. We used simulation results from three summer seasons (1998–2000) to build ROMs of the 4-D soil moisture field for the study sites individually (single-site) and aggregated (multi-site). The results indicate that the ROM produced a significant computational speedup (> 10 3) with very small relative approximation error (< 0.1%) for 2 validation years not used in training the ROM. We also demonstrate that our approach: (1) efficiently corrects for coarse-resolution model bias and (2) can be used for polygonal tundra sites not included in the training data set with relatively good accuracy (< 1.7% relative error), thereby allowing for the possibility of applying these ROMs across a much larger landscape. By coupling the ROMs constructed at different scales together hierarchically, this method has the potential to efficiently increase the resolution of land models for coupled climate simulations to spatial scales consistent with mechanistic physical process representation.« less

Assessing the value of different data sets and modeling schemes for flow and transport simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyndman, D. W.; Dogan, M.; Van Dam, R. L.; Meerschaert, M. M.; Butler, J. J., Jr.; Benson, D. A.

2014-12-01

Accurate modeling of contaminant transport has been hampered by an inability to characterize subsurface flow and transport properties at a sufficiently high resolution. However mathematical extrapolation combined with different measurement methods can provide realistic three-dimensional fields of highly heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity (K). This study demonstrates an approach to evaluate the time, cost, and efficiency of subsurface K characterization. We quantify the value of different data sets at the highly heterogeneous Macro Dispersion Experiment (MADE) Site in Mississippi, which is a flagship test site that has been used for several macro- and small-scale tracer tests that revealed non-Gaussian tracer behavior. Tracer data collected at the site are compared to models that are based on different types and resolution of geophysical and hydrologic data. We present a cost-benefit analysis of several techniques including: 1) flowmeter K data, 2) direct-push K data, 3) ground penetrating radar, and 4) two stochastic methods to generate K fields. This research provides an initial assessment of the level of data necessary to accurately simulate solute transport with the traditional advection dispersion equation; it also provides a basis to design lower cost and more efficient remediation schemes at highly heterogeneous sites.

From Points to Patterns - Functional Relations between Groundwater Connectivity and Catchment-scale Streamflow Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinderer, M.; McGlynn, B. L.; van Meerveld, I. H. J.

2016-12-01

Groundwater measurements can help us to improve our understanding of runoff generation at the catchment-scale but typically only provide point-scale data. These measurements, therefore, need to be interpolated or upscaled in order to obtain information about catchment scale groundwater dynamics. Our approach used data from 51 spatially distributed groundwater monitoring sites in a Swiss pre-alpine catchment and time series clustering to define six groundwater response clusters. Each of the clusters was characterized by distinctly different site characteristics (i.e., Topographic Wetness Index and curvature), which allowed us to assign all unmonitored locations to one of these clusters. Time series modeling and the definition of response thresholds (i.e., the depth of more transmissive soil layers) allowed us to derive maps of the spatial distribution of active (i.e., responding) locations across the catchment at 15 min time intervals. Connectivity between all active locations and the stream network was determined using a graph theory approach. The extent of the active and connected areas differed during events and suggests that not all active locations directly contributed to streamflow. Gate keeper sites prevented connectivity of upslope locations to the channel network. Streamflow dynamics at the catchment outlet were correlated to catchment average connectivity dynamics. In a sensitivity analysis we tested six different groundwater levels for a site to be considered "active", which showed that the definition of the threshold did not significantly influence the conclusions drawn from our analysis. This study is the first one to derive patterns of groundwater dynamics based on empirical data (rather than interpolation) and provides insight into the spatio-temporal evolution of the active and connected runoff source areas at the catchment-scale that is critical to understanding the dynamics of water quantity and quality in streams.

HCV treatment rates and sustained viral response among people who inject drugs in seven UK sites: real world results and modelling of treatment impact.

PubMed

Martin, N K; Foster, G R; Vilar, J; Ryder, S; Cramp, M E; Gordon, F; Dillon, J F; Craine, N; Busse, H; Clements, A; Hutchinson, S J; Ustianowski, A; Ramsay, M; Goldberg, D J; Irving, W; Hope, V; De Angelis, D; Lyons, M; Vickerman, P; Hickman, M

2015-04-01

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) antiviral treatment for people who inject drugs (PWID) could prevent onwards transmission and reduce chronic prevalence. We assessed current PWID treatment rates in seven UK settings and projected the potential impact of current and scaled-up treatment on HCV chronic prevalence. Data on number of PWID treated and sustained viral response rates (SVR) were collected from seven UK settings: Bristol (37-48% HCV chronic prevalence among PWID), East London (37-48%), Manchester (48-56%), Nottingham (37-44%), Plymouth (30-37%), Dundee (20-27%) and North Wales (27-33%). A model of HCV transmission among PWID projected the 10-year impact of (i) current treatment rates and SVR (ii) scale-up with interferon-free direct acting antivirals (IFN-free DAAs) with 90% SVR. Treatment rates varied from <5 to over 25 per 1000 PWID. Pooled intention-to-treat SVR for PWID were 45% genotypes 1/4 [95%CI 33-57%] and 61% genotypes 2/3 [95%CI 47-76%]. Projections of chronic HCV prevalence among PWID after 10 years of current levels of treatment overlapped substantially with current HCV prevalence estimates. Scaling-up treatment to 26/1000 PWID annually (achieved already in two sites) with IFN-free DAAs could achieve an observable absolute reduction in HCV chronic prevalence of at least 15% among PWID in all sites and greater than a halving in chronic HCV in Plymouth, Dundee and North Wales within a decade. Current treatment rates among PWID are unlikely to achieve observable reductions in HCV chronic prevalence over the next 10 years. Achievable scale-up, however, could lead to substantial reductions in HCV chronic prevalence. © 2014 The Authors Journal of Viral Hepatitis Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

HCV treatment rates and sustained viral response among people who inject drugs in seven UK sites: real world results and modelling of treatment impact

PubMed Central

Martin, N K; Foster, G R; Vilar, J; Ryder, S; E Cramp, M; Gordon, F; Dillon, J F; Craine, N; Busse, H; Clements, A; Hutchinson, S J; Ustianowski, A; Ramsay, M; Goldberg, D J; Irving, W; Hope, V; De Angelis, D; Lyons, M; Vickerman, P; Hickman, M

2015-01-01

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) antiviral treatment for people who inject drugs (PWID) could prevent onwards transmission and reduce chronic prevalence. We assessed current PWID treatment rates in seven UK settings and projected the potential impact of current and scaled-up treatment on HCV chronic prevalence. Data on number of PWID treated and sustained viral response rates (SVR) were collected from seven UK settings: Bristol (37–48% HCV chronic prevalence among PWID), East London (37–48%), Manchester (48–56%), Nottingham (37–44%), Plymouth (30–37%), Dundee (20–27%) and North Wales (27–33%). A model of HCV transmission among PWID projected the 10-year impact of (i) current treatment rates and SVR (ii) scale-up with interferon-free direct acting antivirals (IFN-free DAAs) with 90% SVR. Treatment rates varied from <5 to over 25 per 1000 PWID. Pooled intention-to-treat SVR for PWID were 45% genotypes 1/4 [95%CI 33–57%] and 61% genotypes 2/3 [95%CI 47–76%]. Projections of chronic HCV prevalence among PWID after 10 years of current levels of treatment overlapped substantially with current HCV prevalence estimates. Scaling-up treatment to 26/1000 PWID annually (achieved already in two sites) with IFN-free DAAs could achieve an observable absolute reduction in HCV chronic prevalence of at least 15% among PWID in all sites and greater than a halving in chronic HCV in Plymouth, Dundee and North Wales within a decade. Current treatment rates among PWID are unlikely to achieve observable reductions in HCV chronic prevalence over the next 10 years. Achievable scale-up, however, could lead to substantial reductions in HCV chronic prevalence. PMID:25288193

A numerical study of tropospheric ozone in the springtime in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Meigen; Xu, Yongfu; Itsushi, Uno; Hajime, Akimoto

2004-04-01

The Models-3 Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) coupled with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is applied to East Asia to study the transport and photochemical transformation of tropospheric ozone in March 1998. The calculated mixing ratios of ozone and carbon monoxide are compared with ground level observations at three remote sites in Japan and it is found that the model reproduces the observed features very well. Examination of several high episodes of ozone and carbon monoxide indicates that these elevated levels are found in association with continental outflow, demonstrating the critical role of the rapid transport of carbon monoxide and other ozone precursors from the continental boundary layer. In comparison with available ozonesonde data, it is found that the model-calculated ozone concentrations are generally in good agreement with the measurements, and the stratospheric contribution to surface ozone mixing ratios is quite limited.

Post-Disturbance Stability of Fish Assemblages Measured at Coarse Taxonomic Resolution Masks Change at Finer Scales.

PubMed

Ceccarelli, Daniela M; Emslie, Michael J; Richards, Zoe T

2016-01-01

Quantifying changes to coral reef fish assemblages in the wake of cyclonic disturbances is challenging due to spatial variability of damage inherent in such events. Often, fish abundance appears stable at one spatial scale (e.g. reef-wide), but exhibits substantial change at finer scales (e.g. site-specific decline or increase). Taxonomic resolution also plays a role; overall stability at coarse taxonomic levels (e.g. family) may mask species-level turnover. Here we document changes to reef fish communities after severe Tropical Cyclone Ita crossed Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Coral and reef fish surveys were conducted concurrently before and after the cyclone at four levels of exposure to the prevailing weather. Coral cover declined across all exposures except sheltered sites, with the largest decline at exposed sites. There was no significant overall reduction in the total density, biomass and species richness of reef fishes between 2011 and 2015, but individual fish taxa (families and species) changed in complex and unpredictable ways. For example, more families increased in density and biomass than decreased following Cyclone Ita, particularly at exposed sites whilst more fish families declined at lagoon sites even though coral cover did not decline. All sites lost biomass of several damselfish species, and at most sites there was an increase in macroinvertivores and grazers. Overall, these results suggest that the degree of change measured at coarse taxonomic levels masked high species-level turnover, although other potential explanations include that there was no impact of the storm, fish assemblages were impacted but underwent rapid recovery or that there is a time lag before the full impacts become apparent. This study confirms that in high-complexity, high diversity ecosystems such as coral reefs, species level analyses are essential to adequately capture the consequences of disturbance events.

Post-Disturbance Stability of Fish Assemblages Measured at Coarse Taxonomic Resolution Masks Change at Finer Scales

PubMed Central

Ceccarelli, Daniela M.

2016-01-01

Quantifying changes to coral reef fish assemblages in the wake of cyclonic disturbances is challenging due to spatial variability of damage inherent in such events. Often, fish abundance appears stable at one spatial scale (e.g. reef-wide), but exhibits substantial change at finer scales (e.g. site-specific decline or increase). Taxonomic resolution also plays a role; overall stability at coarse taxonomic levels (e.g. family) may mask species-level turnover. Here we document changes to reef fish communities after severe Tropical Cyclone Ita crossed Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Coral and reef fish surveys were conducted concurrently before and after the cyclone at four levels of exposure to the prevailing weather. Coral cover declined across all exposures except sheltered sites, with the largest decline at exposed sites. There was no significant overall reduction in the total density, biomass and species richness of reef fishes between 2011 and 2015, but individual fish taxa (families and species) changed in complex and unpredictable ways. For example, more families increased in density and biomass than decreased following Cyclone Ita, particularly at exposed sites whilst more fish families declined at lagoon sites even though coral cover did not decline. All sites lost biomass of several damselfish species, and at most sites there was an increase in macroinvertivores and grazers. Overall, these results suggest that the degree of change measured at coarse taxonomic levels masked high species-level turnover, although other potential explanations include that there was no impact of the storm, fish assemblages were impacted but underwent rapid recovery or that there is a time lag before the full impacts become apparent. This study confirms that in high-complexity, high diversity ecosystems such as coral reefs, species level analyses are essential to adequately capture the consequences of disturbance events. PMID:27285160

Geography and the costs of urban energy infrastructure: The case of electricity and natural gas capital investments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senyel, Muzeyyen Anil

Investments in the urban energy infrastructure for distributing electricity and natural gas are analyzed using (1) property data measuring distribution plant value at the local/tax district level, and (2) system outputs such as sectoral numbers of customers and energy sales, input prices, company-specific characteristics such as average wages and load factor. Socio-economic and site-specific urban and geographic variables, however, often been neglected in past studies. The purpose of this research is to incorporate these site-specific characteristics of electricity and natural gas distribution into investment cost model estimations. These local characteristics include (1) socio-economic variables, such as income and wealth; (2) urban-related variables, such as density, land-use, street pattern, housing pattern; (3) geographic and environmental variables, such as soil, topography, and weather, and (4) company-specific characteristics such as average wages, and load factor. The classical output variables include residential and commercial-industrial customers and sales. In contrast to most previous research, only capital investments at the local level are considered. In addition to aggregate cost modeling, the analysis focuses on the investment costs for the system components: overhead conductors, underground conductors, conduits, poles, transformers, services, street lighting, and station equipment for electricity distribution; and mains, services, regular and industrial measurement and regulation stations for natural gas distribution. The Box-Cox, log-log and additive models are compared to determine the best fitting cost functions. The Box-Cox form turns out to be superior to the other forms at the aggregate level and for network components. However, a linear additive form provides a better fit for end-user related components. The results show that, in addition to output variables and company-specific variables, various site-specific variables are statistically significant at the aggregate and disaggregate levels. Local electricity and natural gas distribution networks are characterized by a natural monopoly cost structure and economies of scale and density. The results provide evidence for the economies of scale and density for the aggregate electricity and natural gas distribution systems. However, distribution components have varying economic characteristics. The backbones of the networks (overhead conductors for electricity, and mains for natural gas) display economies of scale and density, but services in both systems and street lighting display diseconomies of scale and diseconomies of density. Finally multi-utility network cost analyses are presented for aggregate and disaggregate electricity and natural gas capital investments. Economies of scope analyses investigate whether providing electricity and natural gas jointly is economically advantageous, as compared to providing these products separately. Significant economies of scope are observed for both the total network and the underground capital investments.

Project M: Scale Model of Lunar Landing Site of Apollo 17: Focus on Lighting Conditions and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vanik, Christopher S.; Crain, Timothy P.

2010-01-01

This document captures the research and development of a scale model representation of the Apollo 17 landing site on the moon as part of the NASA INSPIRE program. Several key elements in this model were surface slope characteristics, crater sizes and locations, prominent rocks, and lighting conditions. This model supports development of Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) and Project M for the GN&C Autonomous Flight Systems Branch. It will help project engineers visualize the landing site, and is housed in the building 16 Navigation Systems Technology Lab. The lead mentor was Dr. Timothy P. Crain. The purpose of this project was to develop an accurate scale representation of the Apollo 17 landing site on the moon. This was done on an 8'2.5"X10'1.375" reduced friction granite table, which can be restored to its previous condition if needed. The first step in this project was to research the best way to model and recreate the Apollo 17 landing site for the mockup. The project required a thorough plan, budget, and schedule, which was presented to the EG6 Branch for build approval. The final phase was to build the model. The project also required thorough research on the Apollo 17 landing site and the topography of the moon. This research was done on the internet and in person with Dean Eppler, a space scientist, from JSC KX. This data was used to analyze and calculate the scale of the mockup and the ratio of the sizes of the craters, ridges, etc. The final goal was to effectively communicate project status and demonstrate the multiple advantages of using our model. The conclusion of this project was that the mockup was completed as accurately as possible, and it successfully enables the Project M specialists to visualize and plan their goal on an accurate three dimensional surface representation.

Simultaneous Prediction of New Morbidity, Mortality, and Survival Without New Morbidity From Pediatric Intensive Care: A New Paradigm for Outcomes Assessment.

PubMed

Pollack, Murray M; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Berger, John T; Clark, Amy E; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A; Carcillo, Joseph; Wessel, David L; Moler, Frank; Dalton, Heidi; Newth, Christopher J L; Shanley, Thomas; Harrison, Rick E; Doctor, Allan; Jenkins, Tammara L; Tamburro, Robert; Dean, J Michael

2015-08-01

Assessments of care including quality assessments adjusted for physiological status should include the development of new morbidities as well as mortalities. We hypothesized that morbidity, like mortality, is associated with physiological dysfunction and could be predicted simultaneously with mortality. Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013. General and cardiac/cardiovascular PICUs at seven sites. Randomly selected PICU patients from their first PICU admission. None. Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted morbidity rates (measured with the Functional Status Scale and defined as an increase of ≥ 3 from preillness to hospital discharge) were 4.6% (site range, 2.6-7.7%) and unadjusted mortality rates were 2.7% (site range, 1.3-5.0%). Morbidity and mortality were significantly (p < 0.001) associated with physiological instability (measured with the Pediatric Risk of Mortality III score) in dichotomous (survival and death) and trichotomous (survival without new morbidity, survival with new morbidity, and death) models without covariate adjustments. Morbidity risk increased with increasing Pediatric Risk of Mortality III scores and then decreased at the highest Pediatric Risk of Mortality III values as potential morbidities became mortalities. The trichotomous model with covariate adjustments included age, admission source, diagnostic factors, baseline Functional Status Scale, and the Pediatric Risk of Mortality III score. The three-level goodness-of-fit test indicated satisfactory performance for the derivation and validation sets (p > 0.20). Predictive ability assessed with the volume under the surface was 0.50 ± 0.019 (derivation) and 0.50 ± 0.034 (validation) (vs chance performance = 0.17). Site-level standardized morbidity ratios were more variable than standardized mortality ratios. New morbidities were associated with physiological status and can be modeled simultaneously with mortality. Trichotomous outcome models including both morbidity and mortality based on physiological status are suitable for research studies and quality and other outcome assessments. This approach may be applicable to other assessments presently based only on mortality.

The role of fanatics in consensus formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gündüç, Semra

2015-08-01

A model of opinion dynamics with two types of agents as social actors are presented, using the Ising thermodynamic model as the dynamics template. The agents are considered as opportunists which live at sites and interact with the neighbors, or fanatics/missionaries which move from site to site randomly in persuasion of converting agents of opposite opinion with the help of opportunists. Here, the moving agents act as an external influence on the opportunists to convert them to the opposite opinion. It is shown by numerical simulations that such dynamics of opinion formation may explain some details of consensus formation even when one of the opinions are held by a minority. Regardless the distribution of the opinion, different size societies exhibit different opinion formation behavior and time scales. In order to understand general behavior, the scaling relations obtained by comparing opinion formation processes observed in societies with varying population and number of randomly moving agents are studied. For the proposed model two types of scaling relations are observed. In fixed size societies, increasing the number of randomly moving agents give a scaling relation for the time scale of the opinion formation process. The second type of scaling relation is due to the size dependent information propagation in finite but large systems, namely finite-size scaling.

Learning from catchments to understand hydrological drought (HS Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, Anne

2017-04-01

Drought is a global challenge. To be able to manage drought effectively on global or national scales without losing smaller scale variability and local context, we need to understand what the important hydrological drought processes are at different scales. Global scale models and satellite data are providing a global overview and catchment scale studies provide detailed site-specific information. I am interested in bridging these two scale levels by learning from catchments from around the world. Much information from local case studies is currently underused on larger scales because there is too much complexity. However, some of this complexity might be crucial on the level where people are facing the consequences of drought. In this talk, I will take you on a journey around the world to unlock catchment scale information and see if the comparison of many catchments gives us additional understanding of hydrological drought processes on the global scale. I will focus on the role of storage in different compartments of the terrestrial hydrological cycle, and how we as humans interact with that storage. I will discuss aspects of spatial and temporal variability in storage that are crucial for hydrological drought development and persistence, drawing from examples of catchments with storage in groundwater, lakes and wetlands, and snow and ice. The added complexity of human activities shifts the focus from natural to catchments with anthropogenic increases in storage (reservoirs), decreases in storage (groundwater abstraction), and changes in hydrological processes (urbanisation). We learn how local information is providing valuable insights, in some cases challenging theoretical understanding or model outcomes. Despite the challenges of working across countries, with a high number of collaborators, in a multitude of languages, under data-scarce conditions, the scientific advantages of bridging scales are substantial. The comparison of catchments around the world can inform global scale models, give the needed spatial variability to satellite data, and help us make steps in understanding and managing the complex challenge of drought, now and in the future.

The Potential Effect of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Property Values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, J.

2015-12-01

It is well established that one consequence of increasing global sea level is that the frequency of flooding at low-lying coastal sites will increase. We review recent evidence that the effects coastal geometry will create substantial spatial variations in the changes in flooding frequency with scales of order 100km. Using a simple model of the evolution of coastal property values we demonstrate that a consequence of sea level rise is that the appreciation of coastal properties will peak, and then decline relative to higher properties. The time when the value reach a maximum is shown to depend upon the demand for the coastal property, and the local rate of change of flooding frequency due to sea level rise. The simple model is then extended to include, in an elementary manner, the effects on the value of adjacent but higher properties. We show that the effect of increased flooding frequency of the lower properties leads to an accelerated appreciation of the value of upland properties and an accelerated decline in the value of the coastal properties. We then provide some example calculations for selected sites. We conclude with a discussion of comparisons of the prediction of the analyses to recent data, and then comments on the impact of sea level rise on tax base of coastal communities.

Micro-scale environmental variation amplifies physiological variation among individual mussels.

PubMed

Jimenez, Ana Gabriela; Jayawardene, Sarah; Alves, Shaina; Dallmer, Jeremiah; Dowd, W Wesley

2015-12-07

The contributions of temporal and spatial environmental variation to physiological variation remain poorly resolved. Rocky intertidal zone populations are subjected to thermal variation over the tidal cycle, superimposed with micro-scale variation in individuals' body temperatures. Using the sea mussel (Mytilus californianus), we assessed the consequences of this micro-scale environmental variation for physiological variation among individuals, first by examining the latter in field-acclimatized animals, second by abolishing micro-scale environmental variation via common garden acclimation, and third by restoring this variation using a reciprocal outplant approach. Common garden acclimation reduced the magnitude of variation in tissue-level antioxidant capacities by approximately 30% among mussels from a wave-protected (warm) site, but it had no effect on antioxidant variation among mussels from a wave-exposed (cool) site. The field-acclimatized level of antioxidant variation was restored only when protected-site mussels were outplanted to a high, thermally stressful site. Variation in organismal oxygen consumption rates reflected antioxidant patterns, decreasing dramatically among protected-site mussels after common gardening. These results suggest a highly plastic relationship between individuals' genotypes and their physiological phenotypes that depends on recent environmental experience. Corresponding context-dependent changes in the physiological mean-variance relationships within populations complicate prediction of responses to shifts in environmental variability that are anticipated with global change. © 2015 The Author(s).

From Microhabitat of Floral Nectar Up to Biogeographic Scale: Novel Insights on Neutral and Niche Bacterial Assemblies.

PubMed

Aizenberg-Gershtein, Yana; Izhaki, Ido; Halpern, Malka

2017-07-01

Microbial model systems are very useful in addressing macro-ecological questions. Two major theories exist to date, to explain the community structure of organisms: (1) the dispersal (neutral) assembly theory which predicts that community similarity decreases with increasing geographic distance, independent of any environmental variables, and (2) the niche assembly theory which predicts that the communities' compositions are more homogeneous among sites characterized by similar environmental conditions. Our study system offered a unique opportunity to investigate the relative role of environmental conditions and spatial factors in shaping community composition. We explored the bacterial community composition (BCC) of Nicotiana glauca floral nectar using the Illumina MiSeq technique at three spatial scales (plants, site, and region) and two taxonomic levels. Floral nectar samples were collected from 69 N. glauca plants at 11 different sites along a 200-km transect in Israel, along three biogeographic regions. A distance decay of BCC was found among all plants throughout Israel, but such pattern was not found among either sites or biogeographical regions. The BCC was also governed by environmental conditions in all examined scales (from the plant up to the biogeographical region). We also found that taxonomic resolution (89 and 97% sequence identity for clustering operational taxonomic units) affected the results of these BCC analyses. Hence, our study revealed that the BCC in N. glauca floral nectar is shaped by both the environmental conditions and the distance between plants, depending on the sampling scale under examination as well as by taxonomic resolution.

Insights for empirically modeling evapotranspiration influenced by riparian and upland vegetation in semiarid regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunting, Daniel P.; Kurc, Shirley A.; Glenn, Edward P.; Nagler, Pamela L.; Scott, Russell L.

2014-01-01

Water resource managers aim to ensure long-term water supplies for increasing human populations. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the water balance and accurate estimates are important to quantify safe allocations to humans while supporting environmental needs. Scaling up ET measurements from small spatial scales has been problematic due to spatiotemporal variability. Remote sensing products provide spatially distributed data that account for seasonal climate and vegetation variability. We used MODIS products [i.e., Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and nighttime land surface temperatures (LSTn)] to create empirical ET models calibrated using measured ET from three riparian-influenced and two upland, water-limited flux tower sites. Results showed that combining all sites introduced systematic bias, so we developed separate models to estimate riparian and upland ET. While EVI and LSTn were the main drivers for ET in riparian sites, precipitation replaced LSTn as the secondary driver of ET in upland sites. Riparian ET was successfully modeled using an inverse exponential approach (r2 = 0.92) while upland ET was adequately modeled using a multiple linear regression approach (r2 = 0.77). These models can be used in combination to estimate ET at basin scales provided each region is classified and precipitation data is available.

Utilizing patch and site level greenhouse-gas concentration measurements in tandem with the prognostic model, ecosys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morin, T. H.; Rey Sanchez, C.; Bohrer, G.; Riley, W. J.; Angle, J.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Stefanik, K. C.; Wrighton, K. C.

2016-12-01

Estimates of wetland greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets currently have large uncertainties. While wetlands are the largest source of natural methane (CH4) emissions worldwide, they are also important carbon dioxide (CO2) sinks. Determining the GHG budget of a wetland is challenging, particularly because wetlands have intrinsically temporally and spatially heterogeneous land cover patterns and complex dynamics of CH4 production and emissions. These issues pose challenges to both measuring and modeling GHG budgets from wetlands. To improve wetland GHG flux predictability, we utilized the ecosys model to predict CH4 fluxes from a natural temperate estuarine wetland in northern Ohio. Multiple patches of terrain (that included Typha spp. and Nelumbo lutea) were represented as separate grid cells in the model. Cells were initialized with measured values but were allowed to dynamically evolve in response to meteorological, hydrological, and thermodynamic conditions. Trace gas surface emissions were predicted as the end result of microbial activity, physical transport, and plant processes. Corresponding to each model gridcell, measurements of dissolved gas concentrations were conducted with pore-water dialysis samplers (peepers). The peeper measurements were taken via a series of tubes, providing an undisturbed observation of the pore water concentrations of in situ dissolved gases along a vertical gradient. Non-steady state chambers and a flux tower provided both patch level and integrated site-level fluxes of CO2 and CH4. New Typha chambers were also developed to enclose entire plants and segregate the plant fluxes from soil/water fluxes. We expect ecosys to predict the seasonal and diurnal fluxes of CH4 from within each land cover type and to resolve where CH4 is generated within the soil column and its transmission mechanisms. We demonstrate the need for detailed information at both the patch and site level when using models to predict whole wetland ecosystem-scale GHG budgets.

Landscape-and regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States

Treesearch

Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Jacob S. Fraser; William D. Dijak

2016-01-01

Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating at multiple scales. Niche and biophysical process models have been commonly used to predict climate change effects at regional scales, however, these models have limited capability to include site-scale population dynamics and landscape- scale disturbance and dispersal. We applied a landscape...

Development of the SAFE Checklist Tool for Assessing Site-Level Threats to Child Protection: Use of Delphi Methods and Application to Two Sites in India

PubMed Central

Betancourt, Theresa S.; Zuilkowski, Stephanie S.; Ravichandran, Arathi; Einhorn, Honora; Arora, Nikita; Bhattacharya Chakravarty, Aruna; Brennan, Robert T.

2015-01-01

Background The child protection community is increasingly focused on developing tools to assess threats to child protection and the basic security needs and rights of children and families living in adverse circumstances. Although tremendous advances have been made to improve measurement of individual child health status or household functioning for use in low-resource settings, little attention has been paid to a more diverse array of settings in which many children in adversity spend time and how context contributes to threats to child protection. The SAFE model posits that insecurity in any of the following fundamental domains threatens security in the others: Safety/freedom from harm; Access to basic physiological needs and healthcare; Family and connection to others; Education and economic security. Site-level tools are needed in order to monitor the conditions that can dramatically undermine or support healthy child growth, development and emotional and behavioral health. From refugee camps and orphanages to schools and housing complexes, site-level threats exist that are not well captured by commonly used measures of child health and well-being or assessments of single households (e.g., SDQ, HOME). Methods The present study presents a methodology and the development of a scale for assessing site-level child protection threats in various settings of adversity. A modified Delphi panel process was enhanced with two stages of expert review in core content areas as well as review by experts in instrument development, and field pilot testing. Results Field testing in two diverse sites in India—a construction site and a railway station—revealed that the resulting SAFE instrument was sensitive to the differences between the sites from the standpoint of core child protection issues. PMID:26540159

Development of the SAFE Checklist Tool for Assessing Site-Level Threats to Child Protection: Use of Delphi Methods and Application to Two Sites in India.

PubMed

Betancourt, Theresa S; Zuilkowski, Stephanie S; Ravichandran, Arathi; Einhorn, Honora; Arora, Nikita; Bhattacharya Chakravarty, Aruna; Brennan, Robert T

2015-01-01

The child protection community is increasingly focused on developing tools to assess threats to child protection and the basic security needs and rights of children and families living in adverse circumstances. Although tremendous advances have been made to improve measurement of individual child health status or household functioning for use in low-resource settings, little attention has been paid to a more diverse array of settings in which many children in adversity spend time and how context contributes to threats to child protection. The SAFE model posits that insecurity in any of the following fundamental domains threatens security in the others: Safety/freedom from harm; Access to basic physiological needs and healthcare; Family and connection to others; Education and economic security. Site-level tools are needed in order to monitor the conditions that can dramatically undermine or support healthy child growth, development and emotional and behavioral health. From refugee camps and orphanages to schools and housing complexes, site-level threats exist that are not well captured by commonly used measures of child health and well-being or assessments of single households (e.g., SDQ, HOME). The present study presents a methodology and the development of a scale for assessing site-level child protection threats in various settings of adversity. A modified Delphi panel process was enhanced with two stages of expert review in core content areas as well as review by experts in instrument development, and field pilot testing. Field testing in two diverse sites in India-a construction site and a railway station-revealed that the resulting SAFE instrument was sensitive to the differences between the sites from the standpoint of core child protection issues.

Integrated tephrostratigraphy and stable isotope stratigraphy in the Japan Sea and East China Sea using IODP Sites U1426, U1427, and U1429, Expedition 346 Asian Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sagawa, Takuya; Nagahashi, Yoshitaka; Satoguchi, Yasufumi; Holbourn, Ann; Itaki, Takuya; Gallagher, Stephen J.; Saavedra-Pellitero, Mariem; Ikehara, Ken; Irino, Tomohisa; Tada, Ryuji

2018-12-01

Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 346 "Asian Monsoon" obtained sediment successions at seven sites in the Japan Sea (Sites U1422-U1427 and U1430) and at two closely located sites in the northern East China Sea (Sites U1428 and U1429). The Quaternary sediments of the Japan Sea are characterized by centimeter- to decimeter-scale dark-light alternations at all sites deeper than 500 m water depth. The sedimentary records from these sites allow an investigation of the regional environmental response to global climate change, including changes in the Asian Monsoon and eustatic sea level. However, the discontinuous occurrence of calcareous microfossils in the deep-sea sediments and their distinct isotope signature that deviates from standard marine δ18O records do not permit the development of a detailed stable isotope stratigraphy for Japan Sea sediments. Here, we present the tephrostratigraphy for the two southernmost sites drilled in the Japan Sea (Sites U1426 and U1427) and for one site drilled in the East China Sea (Site U1429) along with the benthic δ18O isotope stratigraphy for the shallower Site U1427 and the East China Sea Site U1429. Eighteen tephra layers can be correlated between sites using the major-element composition and morphology of volcanic glass shards, and the compositions of grains and heavy minerals. Tephra correlations show that negative δ18O peaks in the Japan Sea correspond to positive glacial maxima peaks in the East China Sea. Using this integrated stratigraphic approach, we establish an orbital-scale age model at Site U1427 for the past 1.1 Myr. The correlation of tephra layers between the shallower Site U1427 (330 m below sea level: mbsl) and the deeper Site U1426 (903 mbsl) in the southern Japan Sea provides the opportunity for further age constraints. Our results show that alternations in sediment color at Sites U1426 and U1427 can be correlated for the past 1.1 Myr with minor exceptions. Thus, the stable isotope stratigraphy established at the shallower Site U1427 can be correlated to Site U1426, and in turn to all sites drilled during Expedition 346, based on correlations of dark-light layering.

WIND-TUNNEL SIMULATIONS TO ASSESS DISPERSION AROUND THE WORLD TRADE CENTER SITE

EPA Science Inventory

A wind-tunnel study was conducted of dispersion from the site of the destroyed World Trade Center (WTC) in New York City. A scale model of lower Manhattan, including a scaled representation of the rubble pile, was constructed. The first phases of the study involved smoke visua...

Characterization of the Spatio-temporal Evolution of the Energy of Recent Tsunamis in Chile and its Connection with the Seismic Source and Geomorphological Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroz, M.; Cienfuegos, R.

2017-12-01

At present, there is good knowledge acquired by the scientific community on characterizing the evolution of tsunami energy at ocean and shelf scales. For instance, the investigations of Rabinovich (2013) and Yamazaki (2011), represent some important advances in this subject. In the present paper we rather focus on tsunami energy evolution, and ultimately its decay, in coastal areas because characteristic time scales of this process has implications for early warning, evacuation initiation, and cancelling. We address the tsunami energy evolution analysis at three different spatial scales, a global scale at the ocean basin level, in particular the Pacific Ocean basin, a regional scale comprising processes that occur at the continental shelf level, and finally a local scale comprising coastal areas or bays. These scales were selected following the motivation to understand how the response is associated with tsunami, and how the energy evolves until it is completely dissipated. Through signal processing methods, such as discrete and wavelets analysis, we analyze time series of recent tsunamigenic events in the main Chilean coastal cities. Based on this analysis, we propose a conceptual model based on the influence of geomorphological variables on the evolution and decay of tsunami energy. This model acts as a filter from the seismic source to the observed response in coastal zones. Finally, we hope to conclude with practical tools that will establish patterns of behavior and scaling of energy evolution through interconnections from seismic source variables and the geomorphological component to understand the response and predict behavior for a given site.

Storageless and caching Tier-2 models in the UK context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cadellin Skipsey, Samuel; Dewhurst, Alastair; Crooks, David; MacMahon, Ewan; Roy, Gareth; Smith, Oliver; Mohammed, Kashif; Brew, Chris; Britton, David

2017-10-01

Operational and other pressures have lead to WLCG experiments moving increasingly to a stratified model for Tier-2 resources, where “fat” Tier-2s (“T2Ds”) and “thin” Tier-2s (“T2Cs”) provide different levels of service. In the UK, this distinction is also encouraged by the terms of the current GridPP5 funding model. In anticipation of this, testing has been performed on the implications, and potential implementation, of such a distinction in our resources. In particular, this presentation presents the results of testing of storage T2Cs, where the “thin” nature is expressed by the site having either no local data storage, or only a thin caching layer; data is streamed or copied from a “nearby” T2D when needed by jobs. In OSG, this model has been adopted successfully for CMS AAA sites; but the network topology and capacity in the USA is significantly different to that in the UK (and much of Europe). We present the result of several operational tests: the in-production University College London (UCL) site, which runs ATLAS workloads using storage at the Queen Mary University of London (QMUL) site; the Oxford site, which has had scaling tests performed against T2Ds in various locations in the UK (to test network effects); and the Durham site, which has been testing the specific ATLAS caching solution of “Rucio Cache” integration with ARC’s caching layer.

Multi-Scale Computational Enzymology: Enhancing Our Understanding of Enzymatic Catalysis

PubMed Central

Gherib, Rami; Dokainish, Hisham M.; Gauld, James W.

2014-01-01

Elucidating the origin of enzymatic catalysis stands as one the great challenges of contemporary biochemistry and biophysics. The recent emergence of computational enzymology has enhanced our atomistic-level description of biocatalysis as well the kinetic and thermodynamic properties of their mechanisms. There exists a diversity of computational methods allowing the investigation of specific enzymatic properties. Small or large density functional theory models allow the comparison of a plethora of mechanistic reactive species and divergent catalytic pathways. Molecular docking can model different substrate conformations embedded within enzyme active sites and determine those with optimal binding affinities. Molecular dynamics simulations provide insights into the dynamics and roles of active site components as well as the interactions between substrate and enzymes. Hybrid quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) can model reactions in active sites while considering steric and electrostatic contributions provided by the surrounding environment. Using previous studies done within our group, on OvoA, EgtB, ThrRS, LuxS and MsrA enzymatic systems, we will review how these methods can be used either independently or cooperatively to get insights into enzymatic catalysis. PMID:24384841

Validity of the two-level model for Viterbi decoder gap-cycle performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dolinar, S.; Arnold, S.

1990-01-01

A two-level model has previously been proposed for approximating the performance of a Viterbi decoder which encounters data received with periodically varying signal-to-noise ratio. Such cyclically gapped data is obtained from the Very Large Array (VLA), either operating as a stand-alone system or arrayed with Goldstone. This approximate model predicts that the decoder error rate will vary periodically between two discrete levels with the same period as the gap cycle. It further predicts that the length of the gapped portion of the decoder error cycle for a constraint length K decoder will be about K-1 bits shorter than the actual duration of the gap. The two-level model for Viterbi decoder performance with gapped data is subjected to detailed validation tests. Curves showing the cyclical behavior of the decoder error burst statistics are compared with the simple square-wave cycles predicted by the model. The validity of the model depends on a parameter often considered irrelevant in the analysis of Viterbi decoder performance, the overall scaling of the received signal or the decoder's branch-metrics. Three scaling alternatives are examined: optimum branch-metric scaling and constant branch-metric scaling combined with either constant noise-level scaling or constant signal-level scaling. The simulated decoder error cycle curves roughly verify the accuracy of the two-level model for both the case of optimum branch-metric scaling and the case of constant branch-metric scaling combined with constant noise-level scaling. However, the model is not accurate for the case of constant branch-metric scaling combined with constant signal-level scaling.

Links between geodiversity and cultural elements on three scale levels, a neglected part of geoconservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Ancker, Hanneke; Jungerius, Pieter Dirk

2015-04-01

The best-known landscape map of The Netherlands is a simplified version of the first geological map of The Netherlands and was made between 1856 and 1867 by Winand Staring. It still is the basis of our vegetation districts. The main landscape units of this map are the sand landscape, the peat landscape, the river landscape, the marine landscape, the coastal dunes and the hills. On this scale level there is general awareness of the relationships between the geo aspects (geomorphology, geology, geohydrology and soil science) of the landscape and historical land use, e.g. in field patterns and other cultural elements (archaeology and historical geography). From three of these units, examples of interactions between geo-aspects and cultural elements are given for two different scale levels: first on a more regional scale level, then on site level. Especially the last level requires field study. The relationships between the geo and cultural aspects appear to be most intact and are most variable at the site level. Earth scientists as yet hardly involve themselves in geoconservation studies re these relationships, for which reason the geo-aspects of the cultural elements, especially those at the site level, often are not noticed and disappear during land development projects or gardening efforts. It also is a missed opportunity as these sites offer a chance to raise interest of a broader public for geomorphology and soils, which are in general more difficult to communicate. The development and management of cultural landscapes and sites, by Dutch law is the domain of land owners and landscape architects, who in the course of a project consult other experts. Our plea for future planning projects is to work with a team of experts including archaeologists, historical geographers, flora and fauna experts, geologists, geomorphologists and soil specialists. Although the costs of preparing a plan will be slightly higher, our experience is that it will improve the quality of land planning and the quality of our historical and future landscapes.

Impacts of climate-change-driven sea level rise on intertidal rocky reef habitats will be variable and site specific.

PubMed

Thorner, Jaqueline; Kumar, Lalit; Smith, Stephen D A

2014-01-01

Intertidal rocky reefs are complex and rich ecosystems that are vulnerable to even the smallest fluctuations in sea level. We modelled habitat loss associated with sea level rise for intertidal rocky reefs using GIS, high-resolution digital imagery, and LIDAR technology at fine-scale resolution (0.1 m per pixel). We used projected sea levels of +0.3 m, +0.5 m and +1.0 m above current Mean Low Tide Level (0.4 m). Habitat loss and changes were analysed for each scenario for five headlands in the Solitary Islands Marine Park (SIMP), Australia. The results indicate that changes to habitat extent will be variable across different shores and will not necessarily result in net loss of area for some habitats. In addition, habitat modification will not follow a regular pattern over the projected sea levels. Two of the headlands included in the study currently have the maximum level of protection within the SIMP. However, these headlands are likely to lose much of the habitat known to support biodiverse assemblages and may not continue to be suitable sanctuaries into the future. The fine-scale approach taken in this study thus provides a protocol not only for modelling habitat modification but also for future proofing conservation measures under a scenario of changing sea levels.

Quantifying the multi-scale response of avifauna to prescribed fire experiments in the southwest United States.

PubMed

Dickson, Brett G; Noon, Barry R; Flather, Curtis H; Jentsch, Stephanie; Block, William M

2009-04-01

Landscape-scale disturbance events, including ecological restoration and fuel reduction activities, can modify habitat and affect relationships between species and their environment. To reduce the risk of uncharacteristic stand-replacing fires in the southwestern United States, land managers are implementing restoration and fuels treatments (e.g., mechanical thinning, prescribed fire) in progressively larger stands of dry, lower elevation ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest. We used a Before-After/Control-Impact experimental design to quantify the multi-scale response of avifauna to large (approximately 250-400 ha) prescribed fire treatments on four sites in Arizona and New Mexico dominated by ponderosa pine. Using distance sampling and an information-theoretic approach, we estimated changes in density for 14 bird species detected before (May-June 2002-2003) and after (May-June 2004-2005) prescribed fire treatments. We observed few site-level differences in pre- and posttreatment density, and no species responded strongly to treatment on all four sites. Point-level spatial models of individual species response to treatment, habitat variables, and fire severity revealed ecological relationships that were more easily interpreted. At this scale, pretreatment forest structure and patch characteristics were important predictors of posttreatment differences in bird species density. Five species (Pygmy Nuthatch [Sitta pygmaea], Western Bluebird [Sialia mexicana], Steller's Jay [Cyanocitta stelleri], American Robin [Turdus migratorius], and Hairy Woodpecker [Picoides villosus]) exhibited a strong treatment response, and two of these species (American Robin and Hairy Woodpecker) could be associated with meaningful fire severity response functions. The avifaunal response patterns that we observed were not always consistent with those reported by more common studies of wildland fire events. Our results suggest that, in the short-term, the distribution and abundance of common members of the breeding bird community in Southwestern ponderosa pine forests appear to be tolerant of low- to moderate-intensity prescribed fire treatments at multiple spatial scales and across multiple geographic locations.

Characteristics of HIV Care and Treatment in PEPFAR-Supported Sites

PubMed Central

Filler, Scott; Berruti, Andres A.; Menzies, Nick; Berzon, Rick; Ellerbrock, Tedd V.; Ferris, Robert; Blandford, John M.

2011-01-01

Background The U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has supported the extension of HIV care and treatment to 2.4 million individuals by September 2009. With increasing resources targeted toward scale-up, it is important to understand the characteristics of current PEPFAR-supported HIV care and treatment sites. Methods Forty-five sites in Botswana, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Uganda, and Vietnam were sampled. Data were collected retrospectively from successive 6-month periods of site operations, through reviews of facility records and interviews with site personnel between April 2006 and March 2007. Facility size and scale-up rate, patient characteristics, staffing models, clinical and laboratory monitoring, and intervention mix were compared. Results Sites added a median of 293 patients per quarter. By the evaluation’s end, sites supported a median of 1,649 HIV patients, 922 of them receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Patients were predominantly adult (97.4%) and the majority (96.5%) were receiving regimens based on nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs). The ratios of physicians to patients dropped substantially as sites matured. ART patients were commonly seen monthly or quarterly for clinical and laboratory monitoring, with CD4 counts being taken at 6-month intervals. One-third of sites provided viral load testing. Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis was the most prevalent supportive service. Conclusions HIV treatment sites scaled up rapidly with the influx of resources and technical support through PEPFAR, providing complex health services to progressively expanding patient cohorts. Human resources are stretched thin, and delivery models and intervention mix differ widely between sites. Ongoing research is needed to identify best-practice service delivery models. PMID:21346585

A New Scheme to Characterize and Identify Protein Ubiquitination Sites.

PubMed

Nguyen, Van-Nui; Huang, Kai-Yao; Huang, Chien-Hsun; Lai, K Robert; Lee, Tzong-Yi

2017-01-01

Protein ubiquitination, involving the conjugation of ubiquitin on lysine residue, serves as an important modulator of many cellular functions in eukaryotes. Recent advancements in proteomic technology have stimulated increasing interest in identifying ubiquitination sites. However, most computational tools for predicting ubiquitination sites are focused on small-scale data. With an increasing number of experimentally verified ubiquitination sites, we were motivated to design a predictive model for identifying lysine ubiquitination sites for large-scale proteome dataset. This work assessed not only single features, such as amino acid composition (AAC), amino acid pair composition (AAPC) and evolutionary information, but also the effectiveness of incorporating two or more features into a hybrid approach to model construction. The support vector machine (SVM) was applied to generate the prediction models for ubiquitination site identification. Evaluation by five-fold cross-validation showed that the SVM models learned from the combination of hybrid features delivered a better prediction performance. Additionally, a motif discovery tool, MDDLogo, was adopted to characterize the potential substrate motifs of ubiquitination sites. The SVM models integrating the MDDLogo-identified substrate motifs could yield an average accuracy of 68.70 percent. Furthermore, the independent testing result showed that the MDDLogo-clustered SVM models could provide a promising accuracy (78.50 percent) and perform better than other prediction tools. Two cases have demonstrated the effective prediction of ubiquitination sites with corresponding substrate motifs.

Self Organization in Compensated Semiconductors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berezin, Alexander A.

2004-03-01

In partially compensated semiconductor (PCS) Fermi level is pinned to donor sub-band. Due to positional randomness and almost isoenergetic hoppings, donor-spanned electronic subsystem in PCS forms fluid-like highly mobile collective state. This makes PCS playground for pattern formation, self-organization, complexity emergence, electronic neural networks, and perhaps even for origins of life, bioevolution and consciousness. Through effects of impact and/or Auger ionization of donor sites, whole PCS may collapse (spinodal decomposition) into microblocks potentially capable of replication and protobiological activity (DNA analogue). Electronic screening effects may act in RNA fashion by introducing additional length scale(s) to system. Spontaneous quantum computing on charged/neutral sites becomes potential generator of informationally loaded microstructures akin to "Carl Sagan Effect" (hidden messages in Pi in his "Contact") or informational self-organization of "Library of Babel" of J.L. Borges. Even general relativity effects at Planck scale (R.Penrose) may affect the dynamics through (e.g.) isotopic variations of atomic mass and local density (A.A.Berezin, 1992). Thus, PCS can serve as toy model (experimental and computational) at interface of physics and life sciences.

Prediction of biological integrity based on environmental similarity--revealing the scale-dependent link between study area and top environmental predictors.

PubMed

Bedoya, David; Manolakos, Elias S; Novotny, Vladimir

2011-03-01

Indices of Biological integrity (IBI) are considered valid indicators of the overall health of a water body because the biological community is an endpoint within natural systems. However, prediction of biological integrity using information from multi-parameter environmental observations is a challenging problem due to the hierarchical organization of the natural environment, the existence of nonlinear inter-dependencies among variables as well as natural stochasticity and measurement noise. We present a method for predicting the Fish Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) using multiple environmental observations at the state-scale in Ohio. Instream (chemical and physical quality) and offstream parameters (regional and local upstream land uses, stream fragmentation, and point source density and intensity) are used for this purpose. The IBI predictions are obtained using the environmental site-similarity concept and following a simple to implement leave-one-out cross validation approach. An IBI prediction for a sampling site is calculated by averaging the observed IBI scores of observations clustered in the most similar branch of a dendrogram--a hierarchical clustering tree of environmental observations--built using the rest of the observations. The standardized Euclidean distance is used to assess dissimilarity between observations. The constructed predictive model was able to explain 61% of the IBI variability statewide. Stream fragmentation and regional land use explained 60% of the variability; the remaining 1% was explained by instream habitat quality. Metrics related to local land use, water quality, and point source density and intensity did not improve the predictive model at the state-scale. The impact of local environmental conditions was evaluated by comparing local characteristics between well- and mispredicted sites. Significant differences in local land use patterns and upstream fragmentation density explained some of the model's over-predictions. Local land use conditions explained some of the model's IBI under-predictions at the state-scale since none of the variables within this group were included in the best final predictive model. Under-predicted sites also had higher levels of downstream fragmentation. The proposed variables ranking and predictive modeling methodology is very well suited for the analysis of hierarchical environments, such as natural fresh water systems, with many cross-correlated environmental variables. It is computationally efficient, can be fully automated, does not make any pre-conceived assumptions on the variables interdependency structure (such as linearity), and it is able to rank variables in a database and generate IBI predictions using only non-parametric easy to implement hierarchical clustering. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleoclimate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, B. J.; Thyer, M. A.; Kuczera, G. A.

2012-12-01

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. To characterize long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate and instrumental data describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yrs is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run-lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. Model selection techniques were used to determine a suitable stochastic model to simulate these run-lengths. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, was found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and was rejected in favor of a gamma distribution. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. Application to two high-quality rainfall sites close to water supply reservoirs found that mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry state was 15%-28% lower than the wet state. The model was able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multi-year accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations for the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive AR(1) model was unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Furthermore, analysis of the impact of the CIMSS framework on drought risk analysis found that short-term drought risks conditional on IPO/PDO state were considerably higher than the traditional AR(1) model.hort-term conditional water supply drought risks for the CIMSS and AR(1) models for the dry IPO-PDO scenario with a range of initial storage levels expressed as a proportion of the annual demand (yield).

Individualization and quality improvement: two new scales to complement measurement of program fidelity.

PubMed

Bond, Gary R; Drake, Robert E; Rapp, Charles A; McHugo, Gregory J; Xie, Haiyi

2009-09-01

Fidelity scales have been widely used to assess program adherence to the principles of an evidence-based practice, but they do not measure important aspects of quality of care. Pragmatic scales measuring clinical quality of services are needed to complement fidelity scales measuring structural aspects of program implementation. As part of the instrumentation developed for the National Implementing Evidence-Based Practices Project, we piloted a new instrument with two 5-item quality scales, Individualization (a client-level quality scale) and Quality Improvement (an organizational-level quality scale). Pairs of independent fidelity assessors conducted fidelity reviews in 49 sites in 8 states at baseline and at four subsequent 6-month intervals over a 2-year follow-up period. The assessors followed a standardized protocol to administer these quality scales during daylong site visits; during these same visits they assessed programs on fidelity to the evidence-based practice that the site was seeking to implement. Assessors achieved acceptable interrater reliability for both Individualization and Quality Improvement. Principal components factor analysis confirmed the 2-scale structure. The two scales were modestly correlated with each other and with the evidence-based practice fidelity scales. Over the first year, Individualization and Quality Improvement improved, but showed little or no improvement during the last year of follow-up. The two newly developed scales showed adequate psychometric properties in this preliminary study, but further research is needed to assess their validity and utility in routine clinical practice.

Regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO2 injection - Part 2: A simulated case study in the North German Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kissinger, Alexander; Noack, Vera; Knopf, Stefan; Konrad, Wilfried; Scheer, Dirk; Class, Holger

2017-06-01

Saltwater intrusion into potential drinking water aquifers due to the injection of CO2 into deep saline aquifers is one of the hazards associated with the geological storage of CO2. Thus, in a site-specific risk assessment, models for predicting the fate of the displaced brine are required. Practical simulation of brine displacement involves decisions regarding the complexity of the model. The choice of an appropriate level of model complexity depends on multiple criteria: the target variable of interest, the relevant physical processes, the computational demand, the availability of data, and the data uncertainty. In this study, we set up a regional-scale geological model for a realistic (but not real) onshore site in the North German Basin with characteristic geological features for that region. A major aim of this work is to identify the relevant parameters controlling saltwater intrusion in a complex structural setting and to test the applicability of different model simplifications. The model that is used to identify relevant parameters fully couples flow in shallow freshwater aquifers and deep saline aquifers. This model also includes variable-density transport of salt and realistically incorporates surface boundary conditions with groundwater recharge. The complexity of this model is then reduced in several steps, by neglecting physical processes (two-phase flow near the injection well, variable-density flow) and by simplifying the complex geometry of the geological model. The results indicate that the initial salt distribution prior to the injection of CO2 is one of the key parameters controlling shallow aquifer salinization. However, determining the initial salt distribution involves large uncertainties in the regional-scale hydrogeological parameterization and requires complex and computationally demanding models (regional-scale variable-density salt transport). In order to evaluate strategies for minimizing leakage into shallow aquifers, other target variables can be considered, such as the volumetric leakage rate into shallow aquifers or the pressure buildup in the injection horizon. Our results show that simplified models, which neglect variable-density salt transport, can reach an acceptable agreement with more complex models.

Modelling forest canopy height by integrating airborne LiDAR samples with satellite Radar and multispectral imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García, Mariano; Saatchi, Sassan; Ustin, Susan; Balzter, Heiko

2018-04-01

Spatially-explicit information on forest structure is paramount to estimating aboveground carbon stocks for designing sustainable forest management strategies and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. LiDAR measurements provide samples of forest structure that must be integrated with satellite imagery to predict and to map landscape scale variations of forest structure. Here we evaluate the capability of existing satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) with multispectral data to estimate forest canopy height over five study sites across two biomes in North America, namely temperate broadleaf and mixed forests and temperate coniferous forests. Pixel size affected the modelling results, with an improvement in model performance as pixel resolution coarsened from 25 m to 100 m. Likewise, the sample size was an important factor in the uncertainty of height prediction using the Support Vector Machine modelling approach. Larger sample size yielded better results but the improvement stabilised when the sample size reached approximately 10% of the study area. We also evaluated the impact of surface moisture (soil and vegetation moisture) on the modelling approach. Whereas the impact of surface moisture had a moderate effect on the proportion of the variance explained by the model (up to 14%), its impact was more evident in the bias of the models with bias reaching values up to 4 m. Averaging the incidence angle corrected radar backscatter coefficient (γ°) reduced the impact of surface moisture on the models and improved their performance at all study sites, with R2 ranging between 0.61 and 0.82, RMSE between 2.02 and 5.64 and bias between 0.02 and -0.06, respectively, at 100 m spatial resolution. An evaluation of the relative importance of the variables in the model performance showed that for the study sites located within the temperate broadleaf and mixed forests biome ALOS-PALSAR HV polarised backscatter was the most important variable, with Landsat Tasselled Cap Transformation components barely contributing to the models for two of the study sites whereas it had a significant contribution at the third one. Over the temperate conifer forests, Landsat Tasselled Cap variables contributed more than the ALOS-PALSAR HV band to predict the landscape height variability. In all cases, incorporation of multispectral data improved the retrieval of forest canopy height and reduced the estimation uncertainty for tall forests. Finally, we concluded that models trained at one study site had higher uncertainty when applied to other sites, but a model developed from multiple sites performed equally to site-specific models to predict forest canopy height. This result suggest that a biome level model developed from several study sites can be used as a reliable estimator of biome-level forest structure from existing satellite imagery.

AmeriFlux US-PFa Park Falls/WLEF

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Desai, Ankur

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-PFa Park Falls/WLEF. Site Description - The flux footprint encompasses a highly heterogeneous landscape of upland forests and wetlands (forested and nonforested). The forests are mainly deciduous but also include substantial coniferous coverage. The upland/lowland variability occurs on spatial scales of a few hundred meters. This heterogeneous landscape is further complicated by a nonuniform, small scale mosaic of thinning and clearcutting of the forest. At larger scales (1 km or greater) the forest cover mosaic is quite homogeneous for many kilometers. The site was chosen not formore » study of a simple stand, but for upscaling experiments. The daytime fetch of flux measurements from the 396m level is on the order of 5-10 km, yielding a flux footprint roughly 100x the area of a typical stand-level flux tower. AC power (tower is a TV transmitter).« less

Responses of orchids to habitat change in Corsica over 27 years.

PubMed

Vogt-Schilb, Hélène; Pradel, Roger; Geniez, Philippe; Hugot, Laetitia; Delage, Alain; Richard, Franck; Schatz, Bertrand

2016-07-01

Orchids are known to be particularly sensitive to environmental changes due to their narrow ranges of secondary successional habitats. Lack of data at the community level limits our ability to evaluate how traits of different species influence their responses to habitat change. Here, we used a diachronic survey of Mediterranean orchid communities in Corsica to examine this question. Using data from two field surveys conducted 27 years apart (1982-84 and 2009-11) at the same 45 sites in Corsica, we evaluated the impact of increase in woody plant cover (WPC) on (i) the richness and composition and (ii) the local extinction/colonization dynamics of orchids. We applied a Bayesian multispecies site-occupancy model to each of the 36 orchid species recorded at these sites to estimate the detection probability of each species, enabling us to account for under-detection in estimating their dynamics. Between 1982 and 2011, WPC changed at 82·3 % of sites (increasing at 75·6 %, decreasing at 6·7 %). Despite marked changes in composition of orchid communities at the local scale, no significant change was detected in species richness at the regional scale. Canopy closure affected the probability of new colonization of sites, but had no significant influence on the probability of local extinction. However, the abundance of shade-intolerant species declined more sharply than that of shade-requiring species. Among orchid species, the detection probability was significantly and positively correlated with population density and plant height. This study reveals contrasted dynamics of orchid communities between local and regional scales in Corsica. Although high turnover in communities was found at the local scale, regional species richness was maintained despite major land-use changes. Conserving landscape mosaics could provide locally suitable habitats for orchids of different ecologies to maintain diversity at larger spatial scales. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Community turnover of wood-inhabiting fungi across hierarchical spatial scales.

PubMed

Abrego, Nerea; García-Baquero, Gonzalo; Halme, Panu; Ovaskainen, Otso; Salcedo, Isabel

2014-01-01

For efficient use of conservation resources it is important to determine how species diversity changes across spatial scales. In many poorly known species groups little is known about at which spatial scales the conservation efforts should be focused. Here we examined how the community turnover of wood-inhabiting fungi is realised at three hierarchical levels, and how much of community variation is explained by variation in resource composition and spatial proximity. The hierarchical study design consisted of management type (fixed factor), forest site (random factor, nested within management type) and study plots (randomly placed plots within each study site). To examine how species richness varied across the three hierarchical scales, randomized species accumulation curves and additive partitioning of species richness were applied. To analyse variation in wood-inhabiting species and dead wood composition at each scale, linear and Permanova modelling approaches were used. Wood-inhabiting fungal communities were dominated by rare and infrequent species. The similarity of fungal communities was higher within sites and within management categories than among sites or between the two management categories, and it decreased with increasing distance among the sampling plots and with decreasing similarity of dead wood resources. However, only a small part of community variation could be explained by these factors. The species present in managed forests were in a large extent a subset of those species present in natural forests. Our results suggest that in particular the protection of rare species requires a large total area. As managed forests have only little additional value complementing the diversity of natural forests, the conservation of natural forests is the key to ecologically effective conservation. As the dissimilarity of fungal communities increases with distance, the conserved natural forest sites should be broadly distributed in space, yet the individual conserved areas should be large enough to ensure local persistence.

Community Turnover of Wood-Inhabiting Fungi across Hierarchical Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Abrego, Nerea; García-Baquero, Gonzalo; Halme, Panu; Ovaskainen, Otso; Salcedo, Isabel

2014-01-01

For efficient use of conservation resources it is important to determine how species diversity changes across spatial scales. In many poorly known species groups little is known about at which spatial scales the conservation efforts should be focused. Here we examined how the community turnover of wood-inhabiting fungi is realised at three hierarchical levels, and how much of community variation is explained by variation in resource composition and spatial proximity. The hierarchical study design consisted of management type (fixed factor), forest site (random factor, nested within management type) and study plots (randomly placed plots within each study site). To examine how species richness varied across the three hierarchical scales, randomized species accumulation curves and additive partitioning of species richness were applied. To analyse variation in wood-inhabiting species and dead wood composition at each scale, linear and Permanova modelling approaches were used. Wood-inhabiting fungal communities were dominated by rare and infrequent species. The similarity of fungal communities was higher within sites and within management categories than among sites or between the two management categories, and it decreased with increasing distance among the sampling plots and with decreasing similarity of dead wood resources. However, only a small part of community variation could be explained by these factors. The species present in managed forests were in a large extent a subset of those species present in natural forests. Our results suggest that in particular the protection of rare species requires a large total area. As managed forests have only little additional value complementing the diversity of natural forests, the conservation of natural forests is the key to ecologically effective conservation. As the dissimilarity of fungal communities increases with distance, the conserved natural forest sites should be broadly distributed in space, yet the individual conserved areas should be large enough to ensure local persistence. PMID:25058128

Management of Chronic Periodontitis Using Subgingival Irrigation of Ozonized Water: A Clinical and Microbiological Study

PubMed Central

Mathew, Jayan Jacob; Ambooken, Majo; Kachappilly, Arun Jose; PK, Ajithkumar; Johny, Thomas; VK, Linith; Samuel, Anju

2015-01-01

Introduction Adjunctive use of professional subgingival irrigation with scaling and root planing (SRP) has been found to be beneficial in eradicating the residual microorganisms in the pocket. Objective To evaluate the effect of ozonized water subgingival irrigation on microbiologic parameters and clinical parameters namely Gingival index, probing pocket depth, and clinical attachment level. Materials and Methods Thirty chronic periodontitis patients with probing pocket depth ≥6mm on at least one tooth on contra lateral sides of opposite arches were included in the study. The test sites were subjected to ozonized water subgingival irrigation with subgingival irrigation device fitted with a modified subgingival tip. Control sites were subjected to scaling and root planing only. The following clinical parameters were recorded initially and after 4 weeks at the test sites and control sites. Plaque Index, Gingival Index, probing pocket depth, clinical attachment level. Microbiologic sampling was done for the test at the baseline, after scaling, immediately after ozonized water subgingival irrigation and after 4 weeks. In control sites microbiologic sampling was done at the baseline, after scaling and after 4 weeks. The following observations were made after 4 weeks. The results were statistically analysed using independent t-test and paired t-test. Result Test sites showed a greater reduction in pocket depth and gain in clinical attachment compared to control sites. The total anaerobic counts were significantly reduced by ozonized water subgingival irrigation along with SRP compared to SRP alone. Conclusion Ozonized water subgingival irrigation can improve the clinical and microbiological parameters in patients with chronic periodontitis when used as an adjunct to scaling and root planing. PMID:26436042

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Soltanian, Mohamad Reza; Sun, Alexander; Dai, Zhenxue

Yucca Mountain, Nevada, had been extensively investigated as a potential deep geologic repository for storing high-level nuclear wastes. Previous field investigations of stratified alluvial aquifer downstream of the site revealed that there is a hierarchy of sedimentary facies types. There is a corresponding log conductivity and reactive surface area subpopulations within each facies at each scale of sedimentary architecture. Here in this paper, we use a Lagrangian-based transport model in order to analyze radionuclide dispersion in the saturated alluvium of Fortymile Wash, Nevada. First, we validate the Lagrangian model using high-resolution flow and reactive transport simulations. Then, we used themore » validated model to investigate how each scale of sedimentary architecture may affect long-term radionuclide transport at Yucca Mountain. Results show that the reactive solute dispersion developed by the Lagrangian model matches the ensemble average of numerical simulations well. The link between the alluvium spatial variability and reactive solute dispersion at different spatiotemporal scales is demonstrated using the Lagrangian model. Finally, the longitudinal dispersivity of the reactive plume can be on the order of hundreds to thousands of meters, and it may not reach its asymptotic value even after 10,000 years of travel time and 2–3 km of travel distance.« less

Integrating ecosystems measurements from multiple eddy-covariance sites to a simple model of ecosystem process - Are there possibilities for a uniform model calibration?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minunno, Francesco; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Launiainen, Samuli; Mäkelä, Annikki

2014-05-01

Biogeochemical models quantify the material and energy flux exchanges between biosphere, atmosphere and soil, however there is still considerable uncertainty underpinning model structure and parametrization. The increasing availability of data from of multiple sources provides useful information for model calibration and validation at different space and time scales. We calibrated a simplified ecosystem process model PRELES to data from multiple sites. In this work we had the following objective: to compare a multi-site calibration and site-specific calibrations, in order to test if PRELES is a model of general applicability, and to test how well one parameterization can predict ecosystem fluxes. Model calibration and evaluation were carried out by the means of the Bayesian method; Bayesian calibration (BC) and Bayesian model comparison (BMC) were used to quantify the uncertainty in model parameters and model structure. Evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) measurements collected in 9 sites of Finland and Sweden were used in the study; half dataset was used for model calibrations and half for the comparative analyses. 10 BCs were performed; the model was independently calibrated for each of the nine sites (site-specific calibrations) and a multi-site calibration was achieved using the data from all the sites in one BC. Then 9 BMCs were carried out, one for each site, using output from the multi-site and the site-specific versions of PRELES. Similar estimates were obtained for the parameters at which model outputs are most sensitive. Not surprisingly, the joint posterior distribution achieved through the multi-site calibration was characterized by lower uncertainty, because more data were involved in the calibration process. No significant differences were encountered in the prediction of the multi-site and site-specific versions of PRELES, and after BMC, we concluded that the model can be reliably used at regional scale to simulate carbon and water fluxes of Boreal forests. Despite being a simple model, PRELES provided good estimates of GPP and ET; only for one site PRELES multi-site version underestimated water fluxes. Our study implies convergence of GPP and water processes in boreal zone to the extent that their plausible prediction is possible with a simple model using global parameterization.

Using multi-scale distribution and movement effects along a montane highway to identify optimal crossing locations for a large-bodied mammal community

PubMed Central

Römer, Heinrich; Germain, Ryan R.

2013-01-01

Roads are a major cause of habitat fragmentation that can negatively affect many mammal populations. Mitigation measures such as crossing structures are a proposed method to reduce the negative effects of roads on wildlife, but the best methods for determining where such structures should be implemented, and how their effects might differ between species in mammal communities is largely unknown. We investigated the effects of a major highway through south-eastern British Columbia, Canada on several mammal species to determine how the highway may act as a barrier to animal movement, and how species may differ in their crossing-area preferences. We collected track data of eight mammal species across two winters, along both the highway and pre-marked transects, and used a multi-scale modeling approach to determine the scale at which habitat characteristics best predicted preferred crossing sites for each species. We found evidence for a severe barrier effect on all investigated species. Freely-available remotely-sensed habitat landscape data were better than more costly, manually-digitized microhabitat maps in supporting models that identified preferred crossing sites; however, models using both types of data were better yet. Further, in 6 of 8 cases models which incorporated multiple spatial scales were better at predicting preferred crossing sites than models utilizing any single scale. While each species differed in terms of the landscape variables associated with preferred/avoided crossing sites, we used a multi-model inference approach to identify locations along the highway where crossing structures may benefit all of the species considered. By specifically incorporating both highway and off-highway data and predictions we were able to show that landscape context plays an important role for maximizing mitigation measurement efficiency. Our results further highlight the need for mitigation measures along major highways to improve connectivity between mammal populations, and illustrate how multi-scale data can be used to identify preferred crossing sites for different species within a mammal community. PMID:24244912

A test of the hierarchical model of litter decomposition.

PubMed

Bradford, Mark A; Veen, G F Ciska; Bonis, Anne; Bradford, Ella M; Classen, Aimee T; Cornelissen, J Hans C; Crowther, Thomas W; De Long, Jonathan R; Freschet, Gregoire T; Kardol, Paul; Manrubia-Freixa, Marta; Maynard, Daniel S; Newman, Gregory S; Logtestijn, Richard S P; Viketoft, Maria; Wardle, David A; Wieder, William R; Wood, Stephen A; van der Putten, Wim H

2017-12-01

Our basic understanding of plant litter decomposition informs the assumptions underlying widely applied soil biogeochemical models, including those embedded in Earth system models. Confidence in projected carbon cycle-climate feedbacks therefore depends on accurate knowledge about the controls regulating the rate at which plant biomass is decomposed into products such as CO 2 . Here we test underlying assumptions of the dominant conceptual model of litter decomposition. The model posits that a primary control on the rate of decomposition at regional to global scales is climate (temperature and moisture), with the controlling effects of decomposers negligible at such broad spatial scales. Using a regional-scale litter decomposition experiment at six sites spanning from northern Sweden to southern France-and capturing both within and among site variation in putative controls-we find that contrary to predictions from the hierarchical model, decomposer (microbial) biomass strongly regulates decomposition at regional scales. Furthermore, the size of the microbial biomass dictates the absolute change in decomposition rates with changing climate variables. Our findings suggest the need for revision of the hierarchical model, with decomposers acting as both local- and broad-scale controls on litter decomposition rates, necessitating their explicit consideration in global biogeochemical models.

Prospective safety performance evaluation on construction sites.

PubMed

Wu, Xianguo; Liu, Qian; Zhang, Limao; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J; Wang, Yanhong

2015-05-01

This paper presents a systematic Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) based approach for Prospective Safety Performance Evaluation (PSPE) on construction sites, with causal relationships and interactions between enablers and the goals of PSPE taken into account. According to a sample of 450 valid questionnaire surveys from 30 Chinese construction enterprises, a SEM model with 26 items included for PSPE in the context of Chinese construction industry is established and then verified through the goodness-of-fit test. Three typical types of construction enterprises, namely the state-owned enterprise, private enterprise and Sino-foreign joint venture, are selected as samples to measure the level of safety performance given the enterprise scale, ownership and business strategy are different. Results provide a full understanding of safety performance practice in the construction industry, and indicate that the level of overall safety performance situation on working sites is rated at least a level of III (Fair) or above. This phenomenon can be explained that the construction industry has gradually matured with the norms, and construction enterprises should improve the level of safety performance as not to be eliminated from the government-led construction industry. The differences existing in the safety performance practice regarding different construction enterprise categories are compared and analyzed according to evaluation results. This research provides insights into cause-effect relationships among safety performance factors and goals, which, in turn, can facilitate the improvement of high safety performance in the construction industry. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Round-robin analysis of the behavior of a 1:6-scale reinforced concrete containment model pressurized to failure: Posttest evaluations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clauss, D.B.

A 1:6-scale model of a reinforced concrete containment building was pressurized incrementally to failure at a remote site at Sandia National Laboratories. The response of the model was recorded with more than 1000 channels of data (primarily strain and displacement measurements) at 37 discrete pressure levels. The primary objective of this test was to generate data that could be used to validate methods for predicting the performance of containment buildings subject to loads beyond their design basis. Extensive analyses were conducted before the test to predict the behavior of the model. Ten organizations in Europe and the US conducted independentmore » analyses of the model and contributed to a report on the pretest predictions. Predictions included structural response at certain predetermined locations in the model as well as capacity and failure mode. This report discusses comparisons between the pretest predictions and the experimental results. Posttest evaluations that were conducted to provide additional insight into the model behavior are also described. The significance of the analysis and testing of the 1:6-scale model to performance evaluations of actual containments subject to beyond design basis loads is also discussed. 70 refs., 428 figs., 24 tabs.« less

Bioavailability and Environmental Regulation - Integrating a Fate & Effects Model with a Biotic Ligand Model for Copper in Seawater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera, I.; Chadwick, B.; Rosen, G.; Wang, P. F.; Paquin, P.; Santore, R.; Ryan, A.

2015-12-01

Understanding the bioavailability of metals in the aquatic environment is important for defining appropriate regulatory constraints. A failure to recognize the importance of bioavailability factors on metal toxicity can result in criteria that are over- or under-protective. USEPA addresses the tendency of the national Water Quality Criterion (WQC) for regulation of copper in marine waters to underestimate the natural attenuation of copper toxicity in harbors by the application of site-specific Water Quality Standards (WQS). Which provides the level of protection intended by the WQC, and establishes realistic regulatory objectives. However, development of site-specific WQS involves a long-term effort, and does not account for temporal variation. The toxicity model seawater-Biotic Ligand Model (BLM) was developed and integrated with the existing Curvilinear Hydrodynamics in 3 Dimensions (CH3D) transport & fate model to create an efficient tool for development of site-specific WQS in harbors. The integrated model was demonstrated at a harbor-wide scale in San Diego Bay and Pearl Harbor, and accounted for the natural physical, chemical, biological and toxicological characteristics of the harbor to achieve more scientifically based compliance. In both harbors the spatial and temporal distributions of copper species, toxic effects, and Water Effect Ratio predicted by the integrated model are comparable to previous data. The model was further demonstrated in Shelter Island Yacht Basin (SIYB) marina in San Diego Bay. The integrated model agreed with toxicological and chemical approaches by indicating negligible bioavailability as well as no toxicity; but for a single event, even though an increasing gradient in Cu was observed both horizontally and vertically, with concentrations that reached levels well above current regulatory thresholds. These results support the incorporation by USEPA of the seawater-BLM in a full-strength seawater criterion.

Landscape-scale soil moisture heterogeneity and its influence on surface fluxes at the Jornada LTER site: Evaluating a new model parameterization for subgrid-scale soil moisture variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, I. T.; Prihodko, L.; Vivoni, E. R.; Denning, A. S.

2017-12-01

Arid and semiarid regions represent a large fraction of global land, with attendant importance of surface energy and trace gas flux to global totals. These regions are characterized by strong seasonality, especially in precipitation, that defines the level of ecosystem stress. Individual plants have been observed to respond non-linearly to increasing soil moisture stress, where plant function is generally maintained as soils dry down to a threshold at which rapid closure of stomates occurs. Incorporating this nonlinear mechanism into landscape-scale models can result in unrealistic binary "on-off" behavior that is especially problematic in arid landscapes. Subsequently, models have `relaxed' their simulation of soil moisture stress on evapotranspiration (ET). Unfortunately, these relaxations are not physically based, but are imposed upon model physics as a means to force a more realistic response. Previously, we have introduced a new method to represent soil moisture regulation of ET, whereby the landscape is partitioned into `BINS' of soil moisture wetness, each associated with a fractional area of the landscape or grid cell. A physically- and observationally-based nonlinear soil moisture stress function is applied, but when convolved with the relative area distribution represented by wetness BINS the system has the emergent property of `smoothing' the landscape-scale response without the need for non-physical impositions on model physics. In this research we confront BINS simulations of Bowen ratio, soil moisture variability and trace gas flux with soil moisture and eddy covariance observations taken at the Jornada LTER dryland site in southern New Mexico. We calculate the mean annual wetting cycle and associated variability about the mean state and evaluate model performance against this variability and time series of land surface fluxes from the highly instrumented Tromble Weir watershed. The BINS simulations capture the relatively rapid reaction to wetting events and more prolonged response to drying cycles, as opposed to binary behavior in the control.

The Lévy flight foraging hypothesis: forgetting about memory may lead to false verification of Brownian motion.

PubMed

Gautestad, Arild O; Mysterud, Atle

2013-01-01

The Lévy flight foraging hypothesis predicts a transition from scale-free Lévy walk (LW) to scale-specific Brownian motion (BM) as an animal moves from resource-poor towards resource-rich environment. However, the LW-BM continuum implies a premise of memory-less search, which contradicts the cognitive capacity of vertebrates. We describe methods to test if apparent support for LW-BM transitions may rather be a statistical artifact from movement under varying intensity of site fidelity. A higher frequency of returns to previously visited patches (stronger site fidelity) may erroneously be interpreted as a switch from LW towards BM. Simulations of scale-free, memory-enhanced space use illustrate how the ratio between return events and scale-free exploratory movement translates to varying strength of site fidelity. An expanded analysis of GPS data of 18 female red deer, Cervus elaphus, strengthens previous empirical support of memory-enhanced and scale-free space use in a northern forest ecosystem. A statistical mechanical model architecture that describes foraging under environment-dependent variation of site fidelity may allow for higher realism of optimal search models and movement ecology in general, in particular for vertebrates with high cognitive capacity.

Field_ac: a research project on ocean modelling in coastal areas. The experience in the Catalan Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grifoll, Manel; Pallarès, Elena; Tolosana-Delgado, Raimon; Fernandez, Juan; Lopez, Jaime; Mosso, Cesar; Hermosilla, Fernando; Espino, Manuel; Sanchez-Arcilla, Agustín

2013-04-01

The EU founded Field_ac project has investigated during the last three years methods and strategies for improving operational services in coastal areas. The objective has been to generate added value for shelf and regional scale predictions from GMES Marine Core Services. In this sense the experience in the Catalan Sea site has allowed to combine high-resolution numerical modeling tools nested into regional GMES services, data from intensive field campaigns or local observational networks and remote sensing products. Multi-scale coupled models have been implemented to evaluate different temporal and spatial scales of the dominant physical processes related with waves, currents, continental/river discharges or sediment transport. In this sense the experience of the Field_ac project in the Catalan Sea has permit to "connect" GMES marine core service results to the coastal (local) anthropogenic forcing (e.g. causes of morphodynamic evolution and ecosystem degradation) and will support a knowledge-based assessment of decisions in the coastal zone. This will contribute to the implementation of EU directives (e.g., the Water Framework Directive for water quality at beaches near harbour entrances or the Risk or Flood Directives for waves and sea-level at beach/river-mouth scales).

Normalized difference vegetation index as an estimator for abundance and quality of avian herbivore forage in arctic Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hogrefe, Kyle R.; Patil, Vijay; Ruthrauff, Daniel R.; Meixell, Brandt W.; Budde, Michael E.; Hupp, Jerry W.; Ward, David H.

2017-01-01

Tools that can monitor biomass and nutritional quality of forage plants are needed to understand how arctic herbivores may respond to the rapidly changing environment at high latitudes. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widely used to assess changes in abundance and distribution of terrestrial vegetative communities. However, the efficacy of NDVI to measure seasonal changes in biomass and nutritional quality of forage plants in the Arctic remains largely un-evaluated at landscape and fine-scale levels. We modeled the relationships between NDVI and seasonal changes in aboveground biomass and nitrogen concentration in halophytic graminoids, a key food source for arctic-nesting geese. The model was calibrated based on data collected at one site and validated using data from another site. Effects of spatial scale on model accuracy were determined by comparing model predictions between NDVI derived from moderate resolution (250 × 250 m pixels) satellite data and high resolution (20 cm diameter area) handheld spectrometer data. NDVI derived from the handheld spectrometer was a superior estimator (R2 ≥ 0.67) of seasonal changes in aboveground biomass compared to satellite-derived NDVI (R2 ≤ 0.40). The addition of temperature and precipitation variables to the model for biomass improved fit, but provided minor gains in predictive power beyond that of the NDVI-only model. This model, however, was only a moderately accurate estimator of biomass in an ecologically-similar halophytic graminoid wetland located 100 km away, indicating the necessity for site-specific validation. In contrast to assessments of biomass, satellite-derived NDVI was a better estimator for the timing of peak percent of nitrogen than NDVI derived from the handheld spectrometer. We confirmed that the date when NDVI reached 50% of its seasonal maximum was a reasonable approximation of the period of peak spring vegetative green-up and peak percent nitrogen. This study demonstrates the importance of matching the scale of NDVI measurements to the vegetation properties of biomass and nitrogen phenology.

Model-simulated and Satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) Comparisons Across Multiple Spatial Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iiames, J. S., Jr.; Cooter, E. J.

2016-12-01

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is an important parameter in assessing vegetation structure for characterizing forest canopies over large areas at broad spatial scales using satellite remote sensing data. However, satellite-derived LAI products can be limited by obstructed atmospheric conditions yielding sub-optimal values, or complete non-returns. The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Exposure Methods and Measurements and Computational Exposure Divisions are investigating the viability of supplemental modelled LAI inputs into satellite-derived data streams to support various regional and local scale air quality models for retrospective and future climate assessments. In this present study, one-year (2002) of plot level stand characteristics at four study sites located in Virginia and North Carolina (USA) are used to calibrate species-specific plant parameters in a semi-empirical biogeochemical model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was designed primarily for managed agricultural field crop ecosystems, but also includes managed woody species that span both xeric and mesic sites (e.g., mesquite, pine, oak, etc.). LAI was simulated using EPIC at a 4 km2 and 12 km2 grid coincident with the regional Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) grid. LAI comparisons were made between model-simulated and MODIS-derived LAI. Field/satellite-upscaled LAI was also compared to the corresponding MODIS LAI value. Preliminary results show field/satellite-upscaled LAI (1 km2) was 1.5 to 3 times smaller than that with the corresponding 1 km2 MODIS LAI for all four sites across all dates, with the largest discrepancies occurring at leaf-out and leaf senescence periods. Simulated LAI/MODIS LAI comparison results will be presented at the conference. Disclaimer: This work is done in support of EPA's Sustainable Healthy Communities Research Program. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency funded and conducted the research described in this paper. Although this work was reviewed by the EPA and has been approved for publication, it may not necessarily reflect official Agency policy. Mention of any trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. * Primary author and presenter (Iiames.john@epa.gov)

Damping scaling factors for elastic response spectra for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions: "average" horizontal component

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rezaeian, Sanaz; Bozorgnia, Yousef; Idriss, I.M.; Abrahamson, Norman; Campbell, Kenneth; Silva, Walter

2014-01-01

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for elastic response spectra are typically developed at a 5% viscous damping ratio. In reality, however, structural and nonstructural systems can have other damping ratios. This paper develops a new model for a damping scaling factor (DSF) that can be used to adjust the 5% damped spectral ordinates predicted by a GMPE for damping ratios between 0.5% to 30%. The model is developed based on empirical data from worldwide shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. Dependencies of the DSF on potential predictor variables, such as the damping ratio, spectral period, ground motion duration, moment magnitude, source-to-site distance, and site conditions, are examined. The strong influence of duration is captured by the inclusion of both magnitude and distance in the DSF model. Site conditions show weak influence on the DSF. The proposed damping scaling model provides functional forms for the median and logarithmic standard deviation of DSF, and is developed for both RotD50 and GMRotI50 horizontal components. A follow-up paper develops a DSF model for vertical ground motion.

Sustainability of High Intensity Forest Management with Respect to Water QuaIity and Site Nutrient Reserves

Treesearch

Virginia R. Tolbert; Carl C. Trettin; Dale W. Johnson; John W. Parsons; Allan E. Houston; David A. Mays

2001-01-01

Ensuring sustainability of intensively managed woody crops requires determining soil and water quality effects using a combination of field data and modeling projections. Plot- and catchrnent-scale research, models, and meta-analyses are addressing nutrient availability, site quality, and measures to increase short-rotation woody crop (SRWC) productivity and site...

Modeling the effect of photosynthetic vegetation properties on the NDVI--LAI relationship.

PubMed

Steltzer, Heidi; Welker, Jeffrey M

2006-11-01

Developing a relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the leaf area index (LAI) is essential to describe the pattern of spatial or temporal variation in LAI that controls carbon, water, and energy exchange in many ecosystem process models. Photosynthetic vegetation (PV) properties can affect the estimation of LAI, but no models integrate the effects of multiple species. We developed four alternative NDVI-LAI models, three of which integrate PV effects: no PV effects, leaf-level effects, canopy-level effects, and effects at both levels. The models were fit to data across the natural range of variation in NDVI for a widespread High Arctic ecosystem. The weight of evidence supported the canopy-level model (Akaike weight, wr = 0.98), which includes species-specific canopy coefficients that primarily scale fractional PV cover to LAI by accounting for the area of unexposed PV. Modeling the canopy-level effects improved prediction of LAI (R2 = 0.82) over the model with no PV effect (R2 = 0.71) across the natural range of variation in NDVI but did not affect the site-level estimate of LAI. Satellite-based methods to estimate species composition, a variable in the model, will need to be developed. We expect that including the effects of PV properties in NDVI-LAI models will improve prediction of LAI where species composition varies across space or changes over time.

Directional genetic selection by pulp mill effluent on multiple natural populations of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus).

PubMed

Lind, Emma E; Grahn, Mats

2011-05-01

Contamination can cause a rapid environmental change which may require populations to respond with evolutionary changes. To evaluate the effects of pulp mill effluents on population genetics, we sampled three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) near four pulp mills and four adjacent reference sites and analyzed Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) to compare genetic variability. A fine scale genetic structure was detected and samples from polluted sites separated from reference sites in multidimensional scaling plots (P<0.005, 1000 permutations) and locus-by-locus Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) further confirmed that habitats are significantly separated (F(ST)=0.021, P<0.01, 1023 permutations). The amount of genetic variation between populations did not differ between habitats, and populations from both habitats had similar levels of heterozygosity (polluted sites Nei's Hs=0.11, reference sites Nei's Hs=0.11). Still, pairwise F(ST): s between three, out of four, pairs of polluted-reference sites were significant. A F(ST)-outlier analysis showed that 21 (8.4%) loci were statistically different from a neutral distribution at the P<0.05 level and therefore indicated to be under divergent selection. When removing 13 F(ST)-outlier loci, significant at the P<0.01 level, differentiation between habitats disappeared in a multidimensional scaling plot. In conclusion, pulp mill effluence has acted as a selective agent on natural populations of G. aculeatus, causing a convergence in genotype composition change at multiple sites in an open environment. © The Author(s) 2011. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com

Strategy for long-term 3D cloud-resolving simulations over the ARM SGP site and preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, W.; Liu, Y.; Song, H.; Endo, S.

2011-12-01

Parametric representations of cloud/precipitation processes continue having to be adopted in climate simulations with increasingly higher spatial resolution or with emerging adaptive mesh framework; and it is only becoming more critical that such parameterizations have to be scale aware. Continuous cloud measurements at DOE's ARM sites have provided a strong observational basis for novel cloud parameterization research at various scales. Despite significant progress in our observational ability, there are important cloud-scale physical and dynamical quantities that are either not currently observable or insufficiently sampled. To complement the long-term ARM measurements, we have explored an optimal strategy to carry out long-term 3-D cloud-resolving simulations over the ARM SGP site using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with multi-domain nesting. The factors that are considered to have important influences on the simulated cloud fields include domain size, spatial resolution, model top, forcing data set, model physics and the growth of model errors. The hydrometeor advection that may play a significant role in hydrological process within the observational domain but is often lacking, and the limitations due to the constraint of domain-wide uniform forcing in conventional cloud system-resolving model simulations, are at least partly accounted for in our approach. Conventional and probabilistic verification approaches are employed first for selected cases to optimize the model's capability of faithfully reproducing the observed mean and statistical distributions of cloud-scale quantities. This then forms the basis of our setup for long-term cloud-resolving simulations over the ARM SGP site. The model results will facilitate parameterization research, as well as understanding and dissecting parameterization deficiencies in climate models.

Testing the capability of ORCHIDEE land surface model to simulate Arctic ecosystems: Sensitivity analysis and site-level model calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dantec-Nédélec, S.; Ottlé, C.; Wang, T.; Guglielmo, F.; Maignan, F.; Delbart, N.; Valdayskikh, V.; Radchenko, T.; Nekrasova, O.; Zakharov, V.; Jouzel, J.

2017-06-01

The ORCHIDEE land surface model has recently been updated to improve the representation of high-latitude environments. The model now includes improved soil thermodynamics and the representation of permafrost physical processes (soil thawing and freezing), as well as a new snow model to improve the representation of the seasonal evolution of the snow pack and the resulting insulation effects. The model was evaluated against data from the experimental sites of the WSibIso-Megagrant project (www.wsibiso.ru). ORCHIDEE was applied in stand-alone mode, on two experimental sites located in the Yamal Peninsula in the northwestern part of Siberia. These sites are representative of circumpolar-Arctic tundra environments and differ by their respective fractions of shrub/tree cover and soil type. After performing a global sensitivity analysis to identify those parameters that have most influence on the simulation of energy and water transfers, the model was calibrated at local scale and evaluated against in situ measurements (vertical profiles of soil temperature and moisture, as well as active layer thickness) acquired during summer 2012. The results show how sensitivity analysis can identify the dominant processes and thereby reduce the parameter space for the calibration process. We also discuss the model performance at simulating the soil temperature and water content (i.e., energy and water transfers in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum) and the contribution of the vertical discretization of the hydrothermal properties. This work clearly shows, at least at the two sites used for validation, that the new ORCHIDEE vertical discretization can represent the water and heat transfers through complex cryogenic Arctic soils—soils which present multiple horizons sometimes with peat inclusions. The improved model allows us to prescribe the vertical heterogeneity of the soil hydrothermal properties.

A global framework to model spatial ecosystems exposure to home and personal care chemicals in Asia.

PubMed

Wannaz, Cedric; Franco, Antonio; Kilgallon, John; Hodges, Juliet; Jolliet, Olivier

2018-05-01

This paper analyzes spatially ecosystem exposure to home and personal care (HPC) chemicals, accounting for market data and environmental processes in hydrological water networks, including multi-media fate and transport. We present a global modeling framework built on ScenAT (spatial scenarios of emission), SimpleTreat (sludge treatment plants), and Pangea (spatial multi-scale multimedia fate and transport of chemicals), that we apply across Asia to four chemicals selected to cover a variety of applications, volumes of production and emission, and physico-chemical and environmental fate properties: the anionic surfactant linear alkylbenzene sulphonate (LAS), the antimicrobial triclosan (TCS), the personal care preservative methyl paraben (MeP), and the emollient decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5). We present maps of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) and compare them with monitored values. LAS emission levels and PECs are two to three orders of magnitude greater than for other substances, yet the literature about monitored levels of LAS in Asia is very limited. We observe a good agreement for TCS in freshwater (Pearson r=0.82, for 253 monitored values covering 12 streams), a moderate agreement in general, and a significant model underestimation for MeP in sediments. While most differences could be explained by uncertainty in both chemical/hydrological parameters (DT50 water , DT50 sediments , K oc , f oc , TSS) and monitoring sites (e.g. spatial/temporal design), the underestimation of MeP concentrations in sediments may involve potential natural sources. We illustrate the relevance of local evaluations for short-lived substances in fresh water (LAS, MeP), and their inadequacy for substances with longer half-lives (TCS, D5). This framework constitutes a milestone towards higher tier exposure modeling approaches for identifying areas of higher chemical concentration, and linking large-scale fate modeling with (sub) catchment-scale ecological scenarios; a major limitation in model accuracy comes from the discrepancy between streams routed on a gridded, 0.5°×0.5° global hydrological network and actual locations of streams and monitoring sites. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, John C.; Mallia, Derek V.; Wu, Dien

Despite the need for researchers to understand terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes to account for carbon cycle feedbacks and predict future CO 2 concentrations, knowledge of these fluxes at the regional scale remains poor. This is particularly true in mountainous areas, where complex meteorology and lack of observations lead to large uncertainties in carbon fluxes. Yet mountainous regions are often where significant forest cover and biomass are found – i.e., areas that have the potential to serve as carbon sinks. As CO 2 observations are carried out in mountainous areas, it is imperative that they are properly interpreted to yield informationmore » about carbon fluxes. In this paper, we present CO 2 observations at three sites in the mountains of the western US, along with atmospheric simulations that attempt to extract information about biospheric carbon fluxes from the CO 2 observations, with emphasis on the observed and simulated diurnal cycles of CO 2. We show that atmospheric models can systematically simulate the wrong diurnal cycle and significantly misinterpret the CO 2 observations, due to erroneous atmospheric flows as a result of terrain that is misrepresented in the model. This problem depends on the selected vertical level in the model and is exacerbated as the spatial resolution is degraded, and our results indicate that a fine grid spacing of ~4 km or less may be needed to simulate a realistic diurnal cycle of CO 2 for sites on top of the steep mountains examined here in the American Rockies. In conclusion, in the absence of higher resolution models, we recommend coarse-scale models to focus on assimilating afternoon CO 2 observations on mountaintop sites over the continent to avoid misrepresentations of nocturnal transport and influence.« less

How can mountaintop CO 2 observations be used to constrain regional carbon fluxes?

DOE PAGES

Lin, John C.; Mallia, Derek V.; Wu, Dien; ...

2017-05-03

Despite the need for researchers to understand terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes to account for carbon cycle feedbacks and predict future CO 2 concentrations, knowledge of these fluxes at the regional scale remains poor. This is particularly true in mountainous areas, where complex meteorology and lack of observations lead to large uncertainties in carbon fluxes. Yet mountainous regions are often where significant forest cover and biomass are found – i.e., areas that have the potential to serve as carbon sinks. As CO 2 observations are carried out in mountainous areas, it is imperative that they are properly interpreted to yield informationmore » about carbon fluxes. In this paper, we present CO 2 observations at three sites in the mountains of the western US, along with atmospheric simulations that attempt to extract information about biospheric carbon fluxes from the CO 2 observations, with emphasis on the observed and simulated diurnal cycles of CO 2. We show that atmospheric models can systematically simulate the wrong diurnal cycle and significantly misinterpret the CO 2 observations, due to erroneous atmospheric flows as a result of terrain that is misrepresented in the model. This problem depends on the selected vertical level in the model and is exacerbated as the spatial resolution is degraded, and our results indicate that a fine grid spacing of ~4 km or less may be needed to simulate a realistic diurnal cycle of CO 2 for sites on top of the steep mountains examined here in the American Rockies. In conclusion, in the absence of higher resolution models, we recommend coarse-scale models to focus on assimilating afternoon CO 2 observations on mountaintop sites over the continent to avoid misrepresentations of nocturnal transport and influence.« less

How can mountaintop CO2 observations be used to constrain regional carbon fluxes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, John C.; Mallia, Derek V.; Wu, Dien; Stephens, Britton B.

2017-05-01

Despite the need for researchers to understand terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes to account for carbon cycle feedbacks and predict future CO2 concentrations, knowledge of these fluxes at the regional scale remains poor. This is particularly true in mountainous areas, where complex meteorology and lack of observations lead to large uncertainties in carbon fluxes. Yet mountainous regions are often where significant forest cover and biomass are found - i.e., areas that have the potential to serve as carbon sinks. As CO2 observations are carried out in mountainous areas, it is imperative that they are properly interpreted to yield information about carbon fluxes. In this paper, we present CO2 observations at three sites in the mountains of the western US, along with atmospheric simulations that attempt to extract information about biospheric carbon fluxes from the CO2 observations, with emphasis on the observed and simulated diurnal cycles of CO2. We show that atmospheric models can systematically simulate the wrong diurnal cycle and significantly misinterpret the CO2 observations, due to erroneous atmospheric flows as a result of terrain that is misrepresented in the model. This problem depends on the selected vertical level in the model and is exacerbated as the spatial resolution is degraded, and our results indicate that a fine grid spacing of ˜ 4 km or less may be needed to simulate a realistic diurnal cycle of CO2 for sites on top of the steep mountains examined here in the American Rockies. In the absence of higher resolution models, we recommend coarse-scale models to focus on assimilating afternoon CO2 observations on mountaintop sites over the continent to avoid misrepresentations of nocturnal transport and influence.

Tree Morphologic Plasticity Explains Deviation from Metabolic Scaling Theory in Semi-Arid Conifer Forests, Southwestern USA

PubMed Central

O’Connor, Christopher D.; Lynch, Ann M.

2016-01-01

A significant concern about Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST) in real forests relates to consistent differences between the values of power law scaling exponents of tree primary size measures used to estimate mass and those predicted by MST. Here we consider why observed scaling exponents for diameter and height relationships deviate from MST predictions across three semi-arid conifer forests in relation to: (1) tree condition and physical form, (2) the level of inter-tree competition (e.g. open vs closed stand structure), (3) increasing tree age, and (4) differences in site productivity. Scaling exponent values derived from non-linear least-squares regression for trees in excellent condition (n = 381) were above the MST prediction at the 95% confidence level, while the exponent for trees in good condition were no different than MST (n = 926). Trees that were in fair or poor condition, characterized as diseased, leaning, or sparsely crowned had exponent values below MST predictions (n = 2,058), as did recently dead standing trees (n = 375). Exponent value of the mean-tree model that disregarded tree condition (n = 3,740) was consistent with other studies that reject MST scaling. Ostensibly, as stand density and competition increase trees exhibited greater morphological plasticity whereby the majority had characteristically fair or poor growth forms. Fitting by least-squares regression biases the mean-tree model scaling exponent toward values that are below MST idealized predictions. For 368 trees from Arizona with known establishment dates, increasing age had no significant impact on expected scaling. We further suggest height to diameter ratios below MST relate to vertical truncation caused by limitation in plant water availability. Even with environmentally imposed height limitation, proportionality between height and diameter scaling exponents were consistent with the predictions of MST. PMID:27391084

Tree Morphologic Plasticity Explains Deviation from Metabolic Scaling Theory in Semi-Arid Conifer Forests, Southwestern USA.

PubMed

Swetnam, Tyson L; O'Connor, Christopher D; Lynch, Ann M

2016-01-01

A significant concern about Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST) in real forests relates to consistent differences between the values of power law scaling exponents of tree primary size measures used to estimate mass and those predicted by MST. Here we consider why observed scaling exponents for diameter and height relationships deviate from MST predictions across three semi-arid conifer forests in relation to: (1) tree condition and physical form, (2) the level of inter-tree competition (e.g. open vs closed stand structure), (3) increasing tree age, and (4) differences in site productivity. Scaling exponent values derived from non-linear least-squares regression for trees in excellent condition (n = 381) were above the MST prediction at the 95% confidence level, while the exponent for trees in good condition were no different than MST (n = 926). Trees that were in fair or poor condition, characterized as diseased, leaning, or sparsely crowned had exponent values below MST predictions (n = 2,058), as did recently dead standing trees (n = 375). Exponent value of the mean-tree model that disregarded tree condition (n = 3,740) was consistent with other studies that reject MST scaling. Ostensibly, as stand density and competition increase trees exhibited greater morphological plasticity whereby the majority had characteristically fair or poor growth forms. Fitting by least-squares regression biases the mean-tree model scaling exponent toward values that are below MST idealized predictions. For 368 trees from Arizona with known establishment dates, increasing age had no significant impact on expected scaling. We further suggest height to diameter ratios below MST relate to vertical truncation caused by limitation in plant water availability. Even with environmentally imposed height limitation, proportionality between height and diameter scaling exponents were consistent with the predictions of MST.

Analytical model for the design of in situ horizontal permeable reactive barriers (HPRBs) for the mitigation of chlorinated solvent vapors in the unsaturated zone.

PubMed

Verginelli, Iason; Capobianco, Oriana; Hartog, Niels; Baciocchi, Renato

2017-02-01

In this work we introduce a 1-D analytical solution that can be used for the design of horizontal permeable reactive barriers (HPRBs) as a vapor mitigation system at sites contaminated by chlorinated solvents. The developed model incorporates a transient diffusion-dominated transport with a second-order reaction rate constant. Furthermore, the model accounts for the HPRB lifetime as a function of the oxidant consumption by reaction with upward vapors and its progressive dissolution and leaching by infiltrating water. Simulation results by this new model closely replicate previous lab-scale tests carried out on trichloroethylene (TCE) using a HPRB containing a mixture of potassium permanganate, water and sand. In view of field applications, design criteria, in terms of the minimum HPRB thickness required to attenuate vapors at acceptable risk-based levels and the expected HPRB lifetime, are determined from site-specific conditions such as vapor source concentration, water infiltration rate and HPRB mixture. The results clearly show the field-scale feasibility of this alternative vapor mitigation system for the treatment of chlorinated solvents. Depending on the oxidation kinetic of the target contaminant, a 1m thick HPRB can ensure an attenuation of vapor concentrations of orders of magnitude up to 20years, even for vapor source concentrations up to 10g/m 3 . A demonstrative application for representative contaminated site conditions also shows the feasibility of this mitigation system from an economical point of view with capital costs potentially somewhat lower than those of other remediation options, such as soil vapor extraction systems. Overall, based on the experimental and theoretical evaluation thus far, field-scale tests are warranted to verify the potential and cost-effectiveness of HPRBs for vapor mitigation control under various conditions of application. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of insect disturbance on the structure, composition, and functioning of oak-pine forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medvigy, D.; Schafer, K. V.; Clark, K. L.

2011-12-01

Episodic disturbance is an essential feature of terrestrial ecosystems, and strongly modulates their structure, composition, and functioning. However, dynamic global vegetation models that are commonly used to make ecosystem and terrestrial carbon budget predictions rarely have an explicit representation of disturbance. One reason why disturbance is seldom included is that disturbance tends to operate on spatial scales that are much smaller than typical model resolutions. In response to this problem, the Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) was developed as a way of tracking the fine-scale heterogeneity arising from disturbances. In this study, we used ED2 to simulate an oak-pine forest that experiences episodic defoliation by gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L). The model was carefully calibrated against site-level data, and then used to simulate changes in ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning on century time scales. Compared to simulations that include gypsy moth defoliation, we show that simulations that ignore defoliation events lead to much larger ecosystem carbon stores and a larger fraction of deciduous trees relative to evergreen trees. Furthermore, we find that it is essential to preserve the fine-scale nature of the disturbance. Attempts to "smooth out" the defoliation event over an entire grid cells led to large biases in ecosystem structure and functioning.

SUPERFUND TREATABILITY CLEARINGHOUSE: BENGART AND MEMEL (BENCH-SCALE), GULFPORT (BENCH AND PILOT-SCALE), MONTANA POLE (BENCH-SCALE), AND WESTERN PROCESSING (BENCH-SCALE) TREATABILITY STUDIES

EPA Science Inventory

This document presents summary data on the results of various treatability studies (bench and pilot scale), conducted at three different sites where soils were contaminated with dioxins or PCBs. The synopsis is meant to show rough performance levels under a variety of differen...

Federated queries of clinical data repositories: Scaling to a national network.

PubMed

Weber, Griffin M

2015-06-01

Federated networks of clinical research data repositories are rapidly growing in size from a handful of sites to true national networks with more than 100 hospitals. This study creates a conceptual framework for predicting how various properties of these systems will scale as they continue to expand. Starting with actual data from Harvard's four-site Shared Health Research Information Network (SHRINE), the framework is used to imagine a future 4000 site network, representing the majority of hospitals in the United States. From this it becomes clear that several common assumptions of small networks fail to scale to a national level, such as all sites being online at all times or containing data from the same date range. On the other hand, a large network enables researchers to select subsets of sites that are most appropriate for particular research questions. Developers of federated clinical data networks should be aware of how the properties of these networks change at different scales and design their software accordingly. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cs sorption to potential host rock of low-level radioactive waste repository in Taiwan: experiments and numerical fitting study.

PubMed

Wang, Tsing-Hai; Chen, Chin-Lung; Ou, Lu-Yen; Wei, Yuan-Yaw; Chang, Fu-Lin; Teng, Shi-Ping

2011-09-15

A reliable performance assessment of radioactive waste repository depends on better knowledge of interactions between nuclides and geological substances. Numerical fitting of acquired experimental results by the surface complexation model enables us to interpret sorption behavior at molecular scale and thus to build a solid basis for simulation study. A lack of consensus on a standard set of assessment criteria (such as determination of sorption site concentration, reaction formula) during numerical fitting, on the other hand, makes lower case comparison between various studies difficult. In this study we explored the sorption of cesium to argillite by conducting experiments under different pH and solid/liquid ratio (s/l) with two specific initial Cs concentrations (100mg/L, 7.5 × 10(-4)mol/L and 0.01 mg/L, 7.5 × 10(-8)mol/L). After this, numerical fitting was performed, focusing on assessment criteria and their consequences. It was found that both ion exchange and electrostatic interactions governed Cs sorption on argillite. At higher initial Cs concentration the Cs sorption showed an increasing dependence on pH as the solid/liquid ratio was lowered. In contrast at trace Cs levels, the Cs sorption was neither s/l dependent nor pH sensitive. It is therefore proposed that ion exchange mechanism dominates Cs sorption when the concentration of surface sorption site exceeds that of Cs, whereas surface complexation is attributed to Cs uptake under alkaline environments. Numerical fitting was conducted using two different strategies to determine concentration of surface sorption sites: the clay model (based on the cation exchange capacity plus surface titration results) and the iron oxide model (where the concentration of sorption sites is proportional to the surface area of argillite). It was found that the clay model led to better fitting than the iron oxide model, which is attributed to more amenable sorption sites (two specific sorption sites along with larger site density) when using clay model. Moreover, increasing s/l ratio would produce more sorption sites, which helps to suppress the impact of heterogeneous surface on Cs sorption behavior under high pH environments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Crucial nesting habitat for gunnison sage-grouse: A spatially explicit hierarchical approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Saher, D.J.; Childers, T.M.; Stahlnecker, K.E.; Bowen, Z.H.

2012-01-01

Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of special concern and is currently considered a candidate species under Endangered Species Act. Careful management is therefore required to ensure that suitable habitat is maintained, particularly because much of the species' current distribution is faced with exurban development pressures. We assessed hierarchical nest site selection patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse inhabiting the western portion of the Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA, at multiple spatial scales, using logistic regression-based resource selection functions. Models were selected using Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AIC c) and predictive surfaces were generated using model averaged relative probabilities. Landscape-scale factors that had the most influence on nest site selection included the proportion of sagebrush cover >5%, mean productivity, and density of 2 wheel-drive roads. The landscape-scale predictive surface captured 97% of known Gunnison sage-grouse nests within the top 5 of 10 prediction bins, implicating 57% of the basin as crucial nesting habitat. Crucial habitat identified by the landscape model was used to define the extent for patch-scale modeling efforts. Patch-scale variables that had the greatest influence on nest site selection were the proportion of big sagebrush cover >10%, distance to residential development, distance to high volume paved roads, and mean productivity. This model accurately predicted independent nest locations. The unique hierarchical structure of our models more accurately captures the nested nature of habitat selection, and allowed for increased discrimination within larger landscapes of suitable habitat. We extrapolated the landscape-scale model to the entire Gunnison Basin because of conservation concerns for this species. We believe this predictive surface is a valuable tool which can be incorporated into land use and conservation planning as well the assessment of future land-use scenarios. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Investigating the Macrodispersion Experiment (MADE) site in Columbus, Mississippi, using a three‐dimensional inverse flow and transport model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen Barlebo , Heidi; Hill, Mary C.; Rosbjerg, Dan

2004-01-01

Flowmeter‐measured hydraulic conductivities from the heterogeneous MADE site have been used predictively in advection‐dispersion models. Resulting simulated concentrations failed to reproduce even major plume characteristics and some have concluded that other mechanisms, such as dual porosity, are important. Here an alternative possibility is investigated: that the small‐scale flowmeter measurements are too noisy and possibly too biased to use so directly in site‐scale models and that the hydraulic head and transport data are more suitable for site‐scale characterization. Using a calibrated finite element model of the site and a new framework to evaluate random and systematic model and measurement errors, the following conclusions are derived. (1) If variations in subsurface fluid velocities like those simulated in this work (0.1 and 2.0 m per day along parallel and reasonably close flow paths) exist, it is likely that classical advection‐dispersion processes can explain the measured plume characteristics. (2) The flowmeter measurements are possibly systematically lower than site‐scale values when the measurements are considered individually and using common averaging methods and display variability that obscures abrupt changes in hydraulic conductivities that are well supported by changes in hydraulic gradients and are important to the simulation of transport.

Sensor-Based Electromagnetic Navigation (Mediguide®): How Accurate Is It? A Phantom Model Study.

PubMed

Bourier, Felix; Reents, Tilko; Ammar-Busch, Sonia; Buiatti, Alessandra; Grebmer, Christian; Telishevska, Marta; Brkic, Amir; Semmler, Verena; Lennerz, Carsten; Kaess, Bernhard; Kottmaier, Marc; Kolb, Christof; Deisenhofer, Isabel; Hessling, Gabriele

2015-10-01

Data about localization reproducibility as well as spatial and visual accuracy of the new MediGuide® sensor-based electroanatomic navigation technology are scarce. We therefore sought to quantify these parameters based on phantom experiments. A realistic heart phantom was generated in a 3D-Printer. A CT scan was performed on the phantom. The phantom itself served as ground-truth reference to ensure exact and reproducible catheter placement. A MediGuide® catheter was repeatedly tagged at selected positions to assess accuracy of point localization. The catheter was also used to acquire a MediGuide®-scaled geometry in the EnSite Velocity® electroanatomic mapping system. The acquired geometries (MediGuide®-scaled and EnSite Velocity®-scaled) were compared to a CT segmentation of the phantom to quantify concordance. Distances between landmarks were measured in the EnSite Velocity®- and MediGuide®-scaled geometry and the CT dataset for Bland-Altman comparison. The visualization of virtual MediGuide® catheter tips was compared to their corresponding representation on fluoroscopic cine-loops. Point localization accuracy was 0.5 ± 0.3 mm for MediGuide® and 1.4 ± 0.7 mm for EnSite Velocity®. The 3D accuracy of the geometries was 1.1 ± 1.4 mm (MediGuide®-scaled) and 3.2 ± 1.6 mm (not MediGuide®-scaled). The offset between virtual MediGuide® catheter visualization and catheter representation on corresponding fluoroscopic cine-loops was 0.4 ± 0.1 mm. The MediGuide® system shows a very high level of accuracy regarding localization reproducibility as well as spatial and visual accuracy, which can be ascribed to the magnetic field localization technology. The observed offsets between the geometry visualization and the real phantom are below a clinically relevant threshold. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Missing Data and Influential Sites: Choice of Sites for Phylogenetic Analysis Can Be As Important As Taxon Sampling and Model Choice

PubMed Central

Shavit Grievink, Liat; Penny, David; Holland, Barbara R.

2013-01-01

Phylogenetic studies based on molecular sequence alignments are expected to become more accurate as the number of sites in the alignments increases. With the advent of genomic-scale data, where alignments have very large numbers of sites, bootstrap values close to 100% and posterior probabilities close to 1 are the norm, suggesting that the number of sites is now seldom a limiting factor on phylogenetic accuracy. This provokes the question, should we be fussy about the sites we choose to include in a genomic-scale phylogenetic analysis? If some sites contain missing data, ambiguous character states, or gaps, then why not just throw them away before conducting the phylogenetic analysis? Indeed, this is exactly the approach taken in many phylogenetic studies. Here, we present an example where the decision on how to treat sites with missing data is of equal importance to decisions on taxon sampling and model choice, and we introduce a graphical method for illustrating this. PMID:23471508

A Habitat-based Wind-Wildlife Collision Model with Application to the Upper Great Plains Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forcey, Greg, M.

Most previous studies on collision impacts at wind facilities have taken place at the site-specific level and have only examined small-scale influences on mortality. In this study, we examine landscape-level influences using a hierarchical spatial model combined with existing datasets and life history knowledge for: Horned Lark, Red-eyed Vireo, Mallard, American Avocet, Golden Eagle, Whooping Crane, red bat, silver-haired bat, and hoary bat. These species were modeled in the central United States within Bird Conservation Regions 11, 17, 18, and 19. For the bird species, we modeled bird abundance from existing datasets as a function of habitat variables known tomore » be preferred by each species to develop a relative abundance prediction for each species. For bats, there are no existing abundance datasets so we identified preferred habitat in the landscape for each species and assumed that greater amounts of preferred habitat would equate to greater abundance of bats. The abundance predictions for bird and bats were modeled with additional exposure factors known to influence collisions such as visibility, wind, temperature, precipitation, topography, and behavior to form a final mapped output of predicted collision risk within the study region. We reviewed published mortality studies from wind farms in our study region and collected data on reported mortality of our focal species to compare to our modeled predictions. We performed a sensitivity analysis evaluating model performance of 6 different scenarios where habitat and exposure factors were weighted differently. We compared the model performance in each scenario by evaluating observed data vs. our model predictions using spearmans rank correlations. Horned Lark collision risk was predicted to be highest in the northwestern and west-central portions of the study region with lower risk predicted elsewhere. Red-eyed Vireo collision risk was predicted to be the highest in the eastern portions of the study region and in the forested areas of the western portion; the lowest risk was predicted in the treeless portions of the northwest portion of the study area. Mallard collision risk was predicted to be highest in the eastern central portion of the prairie potholes and in Iowa which has a high density of pothole wetlands; lower risk was predicted in the more arid portions of the study area. Predicted collision risk for American Avocet was similar to Mallard and was highest in the prairie pothole region and lower elsewhere. Golden Eagle collision risk was predicted to be highest in the mountainous areas of the western portion of the study area and lowest in the eastern portion of the prairie potholes. Whooping Crane predicted collision risk was highest within the migration corridor that the birds follow through in the central portion of the study region; predicted collision risk was much lower elsewhere. Red bat collision risk was highly driven by large tracts of forest and river corridors which made up most of the areas of higher collision risk. Silver-haired bat and hoary bat predicted collision risk were nearly identical and driven largely by forest and river corridors as well as locations with warmer temperatures, and lower average wind speeds. Horned Lark collisions were mostly influenced by abundance and predictions showed a moderate correlation between observed and predicted mortality (r = 0.55). Red bat, silver-haired bat, and hoary bat predictions were much higher and shown a strong correlations with observed mortality with correlations of 0.85, 0.90, and 0.91 respectively. Red bat collisions were influenced primarily by habitat, while hoary bat and silver-haired bat collisions were influenced mainly by exposure variables. Stronger correlations between observed and predicted collision for bats than for Horned Larks can likely be attributed to stronger habitat associations and greater influences of weather on behavior for bats. Although the collision predictions cannot be compared among species, our model outputs provide a convenient and easy landscape-level tool to quickly screen for siting issues at a high level. The model resolution is suitable for state or multi-county siting but users are cautioned against using these models for micrositing. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently released voluntary land-based wind energy guidelines for assessing impacts of a wind facility to wildlife using a tiered approach. The tiered approach uses an iterative approach for assessing impacts to wildlife in levels of increasing detail from landscape-level screening to site-specific field studies. Our models presented in this paper would be applicable to be used as tools to conduct screening at the tier 1 level and would not be appropriate to complete smaller scale tier 2 and tier 3 level studies. For smaller scale screening ancillary field studies should be conducted at the site-specific level to validate collision predictions.« less

Large-scale control site selection for population monitoring: an example assessing Sage-grouse trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fedy, Bradley C.; O'Donnell, Michael; Bowen, Zachary H.

2015-01-01

Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Hydrological and geomorphological controls of malaria transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M. W.; Macklin, M. G.; Thomas, C. J.

2013-01-01

Malaria risk is linked inextricably to the hydrological and geomorphological processes that form vector breeding sites. Yet environmental controls of malaria transmission are often represented by temperature and rainfall amounts, ignoring hydrological and geomorphological influences altogether. Continental-scale studies incorporate hydrology implicitly through simple minimum rainfall thresholds, while community-scale coupled hydrological and entomological models do not represent the actual diversity of the mosquito vector breeding sites. The greatest range of malaria transmission responses to environmental factors is observed at the catchment scale where seemingly contradictory associations between rainfall and malaria risk can be explained by hydrological and geomorphological processes that govern surface water body formation and persistence. This paper extends recent efforts to incorporate ecological factors into malaria-risk models, proposing that the same detailed representation be afforded to hydrological and, at longer timescales relevant for predictions of climate change impacts, geomorphological processes. We review existing representations of environmental controls of malaria and identify a range of hydrologically distinct vector breeding sites from existing literature. We illustrate the potential complexity of interactions among hydrology, geomorphology and vector breeding sites by classifying a range of water bodies observed in a catchment in East Africa. Crucially, the mechanisms driving surface water body formation and destruction must be considered explicitly if we are to produce dynamic spatial models of malaria risk at catchment scales.

Predictors of breeding site occupancy by amphibians in montane landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Groff, Luke A.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; Calhoun, Aram J.K.

2017-01-01

Ecological relationships and processes vary across species’ geographic distributions, life stages and spatial, and temporal scales. Montane landscapes are characterized by low wetland densities, rugged topographies, and cold climates. Consequently, aquatic-dependent and low-vagility ectothermic species (e.g., pool-breeding amphibians) may exhibit unique ecological associations in montane landscapes. We evaluated the relative importance of breeding- and landscape-scale features associated with spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) and wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus) wetland occupancy in Maine's Upper Montane-Alpine Zone ecoregion, and we determined whether models performed better when the inclusive landscape-scale covariates were estimated with topography-weighted or circular buffers. We surveyed 135 potential breeding sites during May 2013–June 2014 and evaluated environmental relationships with multi-season implicit dynamics occupancy models. Breeding site occupancy by both species was influenced solely by breeding-scale habitat features. Spotted salamander occupancy probabilities increased with previous or current beaver (Castor canadensis) presence, and models generally were better supported when the inclusive landscape-scale covariates were estimated with topography-weighted rather than circular buffers. Wood frog occupancy probabilities increased with site area and percent shallows, but neither buffer type was better supported than the other. Model rank order and support varied between buffer types, but model inferences did not. Our results suggest pool-breeding amphibian conservation in montane Maine include measures to maintain beaver populations and large wetlands with proportionally large areas of shallows ≤1-m deep. Inconsistencies between our study and previous studies substantiate the value of region-specific research for augmenting species’ conservation management plans and suggest the application of out-of-region inferences may promote ineffective conservation. 

Accretion of a New England (U.S.A.) salt marsh in response to inlet migration, storms, and sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roman, C.T.; Peck, J.A.; Allen, J.R.; King, J.W.; Appleby, P.G.

1997-01-01

Sediment accumulation rates were determined at several sites throughout Nauset Marsh (Massachusetts, U.S.A.), a back-barrier lagoonal system, using feldspar marker horizons to evaluate short-term rates (1 to 2 year scales) and radiometric techniques to estimate rates over longer time scales (137Cs, 210Pb, 14C). The barrier spit fronting the Spartima-dominated study site has a complex geomorphic history of inlet migration and overwash events. This study evaluates sediment accumulation rates in relation to inlet migration, storm events and sea-level rise. The marker horizon technique displayed strong temporal and spatial variability in response to storm events and proximity to the inlet. Sediment accumulation rates of up to 24 mm year-1 were recorded in the immediate vicinity of the inlet during a period that included several major coastal storms, while feldspar sites remote from the inlet had substantially lower rates (trace accumulation to 2.2 mm year-1). During storm-free periods, accumulation rates did not exceed 6.7 mm year-1, but remained quite variable among sites. Based on 137Cs (3.8 to 4.5 mm year-1) and 210Pb (2.6 to 4.2 mm year-1) radiometric techniques, integrating sediment accumulation over decadal time scales, the marsh appeared to be keeping pace with the relative rate of sea-level rise from 1921 to 1993 of 2.4 mm year-1. At one site, the 210Pb-based sedimentation rate and rate of relative sea-level rise were nearly similar and peat rhizome analysis revealed that Distichlis spicata recently replaced this once S. patens site, suggesting that this portion of Nauset Marsh may be getting wetter, thus representing an initial response to wetland submergence. Horizon markers are useful in evaluating the role of short-term events, such as storms or inlet migration, influencing marsh sedimentation processes. However, sampling methods that integrate marsh sedimentation over decadal time scales are preferable when evaluating a systems response to sea-level rise.

Time scale of diffusion in molecular and cellular biology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holcman, D.; Schuss, Z.

2014-05-01

Diffusion is the driver of critical biological processes in cellular and molecular biology. The diverse temporal scales of cellular function are determined by vastly diverse spatial scales in most biophysical processes. The latter are due, among others, to small binding sites inside or on the cell membrane or to narrow passages between large cellular compartments. The great disparity in scales is at the root of the difficulty in quantifying cell function from molecular dynamics and from simulations. The coarse-grained time scale of cellular function is determined from molecular diffusion by the mean first passage time of molecular Brownian motion to a small targets or through narrow passages. The narrow escape theory (NET) concerns this issue. The NET is ubiquitous in molecular and cellular biology and is manifested, among others, in chemical reactions, in the calculation of the effective diffusion coefficient of receptors diffusing on a neuronal cell membrane strewn with obstacles, in the quantification of the early steps of viral trafficking, in the regulation of diffusion between the mother and daughter cells during cell division, and many other cases. Brownian trajectories can represent the motion of a molecule, a protein, an ion in solution, a receptor in a cell or on its membrane, and many other biochemical processes. The small target can represent a binding site or an ionic channel, a hidden active site embedded in a complex protein structure, a receptor for a neurotransmitter on the membrane of a neuron, and so on. The mean time to attach to a receptor or activator determines diffusion fluxes that are key regulators of cell function. This review describes physical models of various subcellular microdomains, in which the NET coarse-grains the molecular scale to a higher cellular-level, thus clarifying the role of cell geometry in determining subcellular function.

BioPreDyn-bench: a suite of benchmark problems for dynamic modelling in systems biology.

PubMed

Villaverde, Alejandro F; Henriques, David; Smallbone, Kieran; Bongard, Sophia; Schmid, Joachim; Cicin-Sain, Damjan; Crombach, Anton; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Mauch, Klaus; Balsa-Canto, Eva; Mendes, Pedro; Jaeger, Johannes; Banga, Julio R

2015-02-20

Dynamic modelling is one of the cornerstones of systems biology. Many research efforts are currently being invested in the development and exploitation of large-scale kinetic models. The associated problems of parameter estimation (model calibration) and optimal experimental design are particularly challenging. The community has already developed many methods and software packages which aim to facilitate these tasks. However, there is a lack of suitable benchmark problems which allow a fair and systematic evaluation and comparison of these contributions. Here we present BioPreDyn-bench, a set of challenging parameter estimation problems which aspire to serve as reference test cases in this area. This set comprises six problems including medium and large-scale kinetic models of the bacterium E. coli, baker's yeast S. cerevisiae, the vinegar fly D. melanogaster, Chinese Hamster Ovary cells, and a generic signal transduction network. The level of description includes metabolism, transcription, signal transduction, and development. For each problem we provide (i) a basic description and formulation, (ii) implementations ready-to-run in several formats, (iii) computational results obtained with specific solvers, (iv) a basic analysis and interpretation. This suite of benchmark problems can be readily used to evaluate and compare parameter estimation methods. Further, it can also be used to build test problems for sensitivity and identifiability analysis, model reduction and optimal experimental design methods. The suite, including codes and documentation, can be freely downloaded from the BioPreDyn-bench website, https://sites.google.com/site/biopredynbenchmarks/ .

Linking Meteorology, Air Quality Models and Observations to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Epidemiologic studies are critical in establishing the association between exposure to air pollutants and adverse health effects. Results of epidemiologic studies are used by U.S. EPA in developing air quality standards to protect the public from the health effects of air pollutants. A major challenge in environmental epidemiology is adequate exposure characterization. Numerous health studies have used measurements from a few central-site ambient monitors to characterize air pollution exposures. Relying solely on central-site ambient monitors does not account for the spatial-heterogeneity of ambient air pollution patterns, the temporal variability in ambient concentrations, nor the influence of infiltration and indoor sources. Central-site monitoring becomes even more problematic for certain air pollutants that exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity. Statistical interpolation techniques and passive monitoring methods can provide additional spatial resolution in ambient concentration estimates. In addition, spatio-temporal models, which integrate GIS data and other factors, such as meteorology, have also been developed to produce more resolved estimates of ambient concentrations. Models, such as the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, estimate ambient concentrations by combining information on meteorology, source emissions, and chemical-fate and transport. Hybrid modeling approaches, which integrate regional scale models with local scale dispersion

Modelling community dynamics based on species-level abundance models from detection/nondetection data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yamaura, Yuichi; Royle, J. Andrew; Kuboi, Kouji; Tada, Tsuneo; Ikeno, Susumu; Makino, Shun'ichi

2011-01-01

1. In large-scale field surveys, a binary recording of each species' detection or nondetection has been increasingly adopted for its simplicity and low cost. Because of the importance of abundance in many studies, it is desirable to obtain inferences about abundance at species-, functional group-, and community-levels from such binary data. 2. We developed a novel hierarchical multi-species abundance model based on species-level detection/nondetection data. The model accounts for the existence of undetected species, and variability in abundance and detectability among species. Species-level detection/nondetection is linked to species- level abundance via a detection model that accommodates the expectation that probability of detection (at least one individuals is detected) increases with local abundance of the species. We applied this model to a 9-year dataset composed of the detection/nondetection of forest birds, at a single post-fire site (from 7 to 15 years after fire) in a montane area of central Japan. The model allocated undetected species into one of the predefined functional groups by assuming a prior distribution on individual group membership. 3. The results suggest that 15–20 species were missed in each year, and that species richness of communities and functional groups did not change with post-fire forest succession. Overall abundance of birds and abundance of functional groups tended to increase over time, although only in the winter, while decreases in detectabilities were observed in several species. 4. Synthesis and applications. Understanding and prediction of large-scale biodiversity dynamics partly hinge on how we can use data effectively. Our hierarchical model for detection/nondetection data estimates abundance in space/time at species-, functional group-, and community-levels while accounting for undetected individuals and species. It also permits comparison of multiple communities by many types of abundance-based diversity and similarity measures under imperfect detection.

kmos: A lattice kinetic Monte Carlo framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Max J.; Matera, Sebastian; Reuter, Karsten

2014-07-01

Kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) simulations have emerged as a key tool for microkinetic modeling in heterogeneous catalysis and other materials applications. Systems, where site-specificity of all elementary reactions allows a mapping onto a lattice of discrete active sites, can be addressed within the particularly efficient lattice kMC approach. To this end we describe the versatile kmos software package, which offers a most user-friendly implementation, execution, and evaluation of lattice kMC models of arbitrary complexity in one- to three-dimensional lattice systems, involving multiple active sites in periodic or aperiodic arrangements, as well as site-resolved pairwise and higher-order lateral interactions. Conceptually, kmos achieves a maximum runtime performance which is essentially independent of lattice size by generating code for the efficiency-determining local update of available events that is optimized for a defined kMC model. For this model definition and the control of all runtime and evaluation aspects kmos offers a high-level application programming interface. Usage proceeds interactively, via scripts, or a graphical user interface, which visualizes the model geometry, the lattice occupations and rates of selected elementary reactions, while allowing on-the-fly changes of simulation parameters. We demonstrate the performance and scaling of kmos with the application to kMC models for surface catalytic processes, where for given operation conditions (temperature and partial pressures of all reactants) central simulation outcomes are catalytic activity and selectivities, surface composition, and mechanistic insight into the occurrence of individual elementary processes in the reaction network.

Multilevel landscape utilization of the Siberian flying squirrel: Scale effects on species habitat use.

PubMed

Remm, Jaanus; Hanski, Ilpo K; Tuominen, Sakari; Selonen, Vesa

2017-10-01

Animals use and select habitat at multiple hierarchical levels and at different spatial scales within each level. Still, there is little knowledge on the scale effects at different spatial levels of species occupancy patterns. The objective of this study was to examine nonlinear effects and optimal-scale landscape characteristics that affect occupancy of the Siberian flying squirrel, Pteromys volans , in South- and Mid-Finland. We used presence-absence data ( n  = 10,032 plots of 9 ha) and novel approach to separate the effects on site-, landscape-, and regional-level occupancy patterns. Our main results were: landscape variables predicted the placement of population patches at least twice as well as they predicted the occupancy of particular sites; the clear optimal value of preferred habitat cover for species landscape-level abundance is a surprisingly low value (10% within a 4 km buffer); landscape metrics exert different effects on species occupancy and abundance in high versus low population density regions of our study area. We conclude that knowledge of regional variation in landscape utilization will be essential for successful conservation of the species. The results also support the view that large-scale landscape variables have high predictive power in explaining species abundance. Our study demonstrates the complex response of species occurrence at different levels of population configuration on landscape structure. The study also highlights the need for data in large spatial scale to increase the precision of biodiversity mapping and prediction of future trends.

Improving predictions of large scale soil carbon dynamics: Integration of fine-scale hydrological and biogeochemical processes, scaling, and benchmarking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Dwivedi, D.; Ghimire, B.; Hoffman, F. M.; Pau, G. S. H.; Randerson, J. T.; Shen, C.; Tang, J.; Zhu, Q.

2015-12-01

Numerical model representations of decadal- to centennial-scale soil-carbon dynamics are a dominant cause of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Recent attempts by some Earth System Model (ESM) teams to integrate previously unrepresented soil processes (e.g., explicit microbial processes, abiotic interactions with mineral surfaces, vertical transport), poor performance of many ESM land models against large-scale and experimental manipulation observations, and complexities associated with spatial heterogeneity highlight the nascent nature of our community's ability to accurately predict future soil carbon dynamics. I will present recent work from our group to develop a modeling framework to integrate pore-, column-, watershed-, and global-scale soil process representations into an ESM (ACME), and apply the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for evaluation. At the column scale and across a wide range of sites, observed depth-resolved carbon stocks and their 14C derived turnover times can be explained by a model with explicit representation of two microbial populations, a simple representation of mineralogy, and vertical transport. Integrating soil and plant dynamics requires a 'process-scaling' approach, since all aspects of the multi-nutrient system cannot be explicitly resolved at ESM scales. I will show that one approach, the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation, improves predictions of forest nitrogen and phosphorus experimental manipulations and leads to very different global soil carbon predictions. Translating model representations from the site- to ESM-scale requires a spatial scaling approach that either explicitly resolves the relevant processes, or more practically, accounts for fine-resolution dynamics at coarser scales. To that end, I will present recent watershed-scale modeling work that applies reduced order model methods to accurately scale fine-resolution soil carbon dynamics to coarse-resolution simulations. Finally, we contend that creating believable soil carbon predictions requires a robust, transparent, and community-available benchmarking framework. I will present an ILAMB evaluation of several of the above-mentioned approaches in ACME, and attempt to motivate community adoption of this evaluation approach.

Estimation of Net Ecosystem Carbon Exchange for the Conterminous UnitedStates by Combining MODIS and AmeriFlux Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiao, Jingfeng; Zhuang, Qianlai; Baldocchi, Dennis D.

Eddy covariance flux towers provide continuous measurements of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) for a wide range of climate and biome types. However, these measurements only represent the carbon fluxes at the scale of the tower footprint. To quantify the net exchange of carbon dioxide between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere for regions or continents, flux tower measurements need to be extrapolated to these large areas. Here we used remotely-sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument on board NASA's Terra satellite to scale up AmeriFlux NEE measurements to the continental scale. We first combined MODIS andmore » AmeriFlux data for representative U.S. ecosystems to develop a predictive NEE model using a regression tree approach. The predictive model was trained and validated using NEE data over the periods 2000-2004 and 2005-2006, respectively. We found that the model predicted NEE reasonably well at the site level. We then applied the model to the continental scale and estimated NEE for each 1 km x 1 km cell across the conterminous U.S. for each 8-day period in 2005 using spatially-explicit MODIS data. The model generally captured the expected spatial and seasonal patterns of NEE. Our study demonstrated that our empirical approach is effective for scaling up eddy flux NEE measurements to the continental scale and producing wall-to-wall NEE estimates across multiple biomes. Our estimates may provide an independent dataset from simulations with biogeochemical models and inverse modeling approaches for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of NEE and constraining terrestrial carbon budgets for large areas.« less

The relative influence of geographic location and reach-scale habitat on benthic invertebrate assemblages in six ecoregions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munn, M.D.; Waite, I.R.; Larsen, D.P.; Herlihy, A.T.

2009-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine the relative influence of reach-specific habitat variables and geographic location on benthic invertebrate assemblages within six ecoregions across the Western USA. This study included 417 sites from six ecoregions. A total of 301 taxa were collected with the highest richness associated with ecoregions dominated by streams with coarse substrate (19-29 taxa per site). Lowest richness (seven to eight taxa per site) was associated with ecoregions dominated by fine-grain substrate. Principle component analysis (PCA) on reach-scale habitat separated the six ecoregions into those in high-gradient mountainous areas (Coast Range, Cascades, and Southern Rockies) and those in lower-gradient ecoregions (Central Great Plains and Central California Valley). Nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) models performed best in ecoregions dominated by coarse-grain substrate and high taxa richness, along with coarse-grain substrates sites combined from multiple ecoregions regardless of location. In contrast, ecoregions or site combinations dominated by fine-grain substrate had poor model performance (high stress). Four NMS models showed that geographic location (i.e. latitude and longitude) was important for: (1) all ecoregions combined, (2) all sites dominated by coarse-grain sub strate combined, (3) Cascades Ecoregion, and (4) Columbia Ecoregion. Local factors (i.e. substrate or water temperature) seem to be overriding factors controlling invertebrate composition across the West, regardless of geographic location. ?? The Author(s) 2008.

Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

2016-03-01

Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

Genome-scale modeling of the evolutionary path to C4 photosynthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, Christopher R.; Bogart, Eli

In C4 photosynthesis, plants maintain a high carbon dioxide level in specialized bundle sheath cells surrounding leaf veins and restrict CO2 assimilation to those cells, favoring CO2 over O2 in competition for Rubisco active sites. In C3 plants, which do not possess such a carbon concentrating mechanism, CO2 fixation is reduced due to this competition. Despite the complexity of the C4 system, it has evolved convergently from more than 60 independent origins in diverse families of plants around the world over the last 30 million years. We study the evolution of the C4 system in a genome-scale model of plant metabolism that describes interacting mesophyll and bundle sheath cells and enforces key nonlinear kinetic relationships. Adapting the zero-temperature string method for simulating transition paths in physics and chemistry, we find the highest-fitness paths connecting C3 and C4 positions in the model's high-dimensional parameter space, and show that they reproduce known aspects of the C3-C4 transition while making additional predictions about metabolic changes along the path. We explore the relationship between evolutionary history and C4 biochemical subtype, and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

How trees uptake carbon, release water and cool themselves in air: a marriage between biophysics and turbulent fluid dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Tirtha; Linn, Rodman

2017-11-01

Resolving the role of the biosphere as a terrestrial carbon sink and the nature of nonlinear couplings between carbon and water cycles across a very wide range of spatiotemporal scales constitute the scope of this work. To achieve this goal, plant physiology models are coupled with atmospheric turbulence simulations. The plant biophysics code is based on the following principles: (1) a model for photosynthesis; (2) a mass transfer model through the laminar boundary layer on leaves; (3) an optimal leaf water use strategy regulated by stomatal aperture variation; (4) a leaf-level energy balance to accommodate evaporative cooling. Leaf-level outputs are upscaled to plant, canopy and landscape scales using HIGRAD/FIRETEC, a high fidelity large eddy simulation (LES) framework developed at LANL. The coupled biophysics-CFD code can take inputs such as wind speed, light availability, ambient CO2 concentration, air temperature, site characteristics etc. and can deliver predictions for leaf temperature, transpiration, carbon assimilation, sensible and latent heat flux, which is used to illustrate the complex the complex interaction between trees and their surrounding environments. These simulation capabilities are being used to study climate feedbacks of forests and agroecosystems.

Uncertainties of Large-Scale Forcing Caused by Surface Turbulence Flux Measurements and the Impacts on Cloud Simulations at the ARM SGP Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, S.; Xie, S.; Tang, Q.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

Two types of instruments, the eddy correlation flux measurement system (ECOR) and the energy balance Bowen ratio system (EBBR), are used at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to measure surface latent and sensible fluxes. ECOR and EBBR typically sample different land surface types, and the domain-mean surface fluxes derived from ECOR and EBBR are not always consistent. The uncertainties of the surface fluxes will have impacts on the derived large-scale forcing data and further affect the simulations of single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM) and large-eddy simulation models (LES), especially for the shallow-cumulus clouds which are mainly driven by surface forcing. This study aims to quantify the uncertainties of the large-scale forcing caused by surface turbulence flux measurements and investigate the impacts on cloud simulations using long-term observations from the ARM SGP site.

Testing models of female reproductive migratory behaviour and population structure in the Caribbean hawksbill turtle, Eretmochelys imbricata, with mtDNA sequences.

PubMed

Bass, A L; Good, D A; Bjorndal, K A; Richardson, J I; Hillis, Z M; Horrocks, J A; Bowen, B W

1996-06-01

Information on the reproductive behaviour and population structure of female hawksbill turtles, Eretmochelys imbricata, is necessary to define conservation priorities for this highly endangered species. Two hypotheses to explain female nest site choice, natal homing and social facilitation, were tested by analyzing mtDNA control region sequences of 103 individuals from seven nesting colonies in the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Under the social facilitation model, newly mature females follow older females to a nesting location, and subsequently use this site for future nesting. This model generates an expectation that female lineages will be homogenized among regional nesting colonies. Contrary to expectations of the social facilitation model, mtDNA lineages were highly structured among western Atlantic nesting colonies. These analyses identified at least 6 female breeding stocks in the Caribbean and western Atlantic and support a natal homing model for recruitment of breeding females. Reproductive populations are effectively isolated over ecological time scales, and recovery plans for this species should include protection at the level of individual nesting colonies.

Modelling temporal and large-scale spatial variability of soil respiration from soil water availability, temperature and vegetation productivity indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichstein, M.; Rey, A.; Freibauer, A.; Tenhunen, J.; Valentini, R.; Soil Respiration Synthesis Team

2003-04-01

Field-chamber measurements of soil respiration from 17 different forest and shrubland sites in Europe and North America were summarized and analyzed with the goal to develop a model describing seasonal, inter-annual and spatial variability of soil respiration as affected by water availability, temperature and site properties. The analysis was performed at a daily and at a monthly time step. With the daily time step, the relative soil water content in the upper soil layer expressed as a fraction of field capacity was a good predictor of soil respiration at all sites. Among the site variables tested, those related to site productivity (e.g. leaf area index) correlated significantly with soil respiration, while carbon pool variables like standing biomass or the litter and soil carbon stocks did not show a clear relationship with soil respiration. Furthermore, it was evidenced that the effect of precipitation on soil respiration stretched beyond its direct effect via soil moisture. A general statistical non-linear regression model was developed to describe soil respiration as dependent on soil temperature, soil water content and site-specific maximum leaf area index. The model explained nearly two thirds of the temporal and inter-site variability of soil respiration with a mean absolute error of 0.82 µmol m-2 s-1. The parameterised model exhibits the following principal properties: 1) At a relative amount of upper-layer soil water of 16% of field capacity half-maximal soil respiration rates are reached. 2) The apparent temperature sensitivity of soil respiration measured as Q10 varies between 1 and 5 depending on soil temperature and water content. 3) Soil respiration under reference moisture and temperature conditions is linearly related to maximum site leaf area index. At a monthly time-scale we employed the approach by Raich et al. (2002, Global Change Biol. 8, 800-812) that used monthly precipitation and air temperature to globally predict soil respiration (T&P-model). While this model was able to explain some of the month-to-month variability of soil respiration, it failed to capture the inter-site variability, regardless whether the original or a new optimized model parameterization was used. In both cases, the residuals were strongly related to maximum site leaf area index. Thus, for a monthly time scale we developed a simple T&P&LAI-model that includes leaf area index as an additional predictor of soil respiration. This extended but still simple model performed nearly as well as the more detailed time-step model and explained 50 % of the overall and 65% of the site-to-site variability. Consequently, better estimates of globally distributed soil respiration should be obtained with the new model driven by satellite estimates of leaf area index.

Health-related quality-of-life parameters as independent prognostic factors in advanced or metastatic bladder cancer.

PubMed

Roychowdhury, D F; Hayden, A; Liepa, A M

2003-02-15

This retrospective analysis examined prognostic significance of health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) parameters combined with baseline clinical factors on outcomes (overall survival, time to progressive disease, and time to treatment failure) in bladder cancer. Outcome and HRQoL (European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire C30) data were collected prospectively in a phase III study assessing gemcitabine and cisplatin versus methotrexate, vinblastine, doxorubicin, and cisplatin in locally advanced or metastatic bladder cancer. Prespecified baseline clinical factors (performance status, tumor-node-metastasis staging, visceral metastases [VM], alkaline phosphatase [AP] level, number of metastatic sites, prior radiotherapy, disease measurability, sex, time from diagnosis, and sites of disease) and selected HRQoL parameters (global QoL; all functional scales; symptoms: pain, fatigue, insomnia, dyspnea, anorexia) were evaluated using Cox's proportional hazards model. Factors with individual prognostic value (P <.05) on outcomes in univariate models were assessed for joint prognostic value in a multivariate model. A final model was developed using a backward selection strategy. Patients with baseline HRQoL were included (364 of 405, 90%). The final model predicted longer survival with low/normal AP levels, no VM, high physical functioning, low role functioning, and no anorexia. Positive prognostic factors for time to progressive disease were good performance status, low/normal AP levels, no VM, and minimal fatigue; for time to treatment failure, they were low/normal AP levels, minimal fatigue, and no anorexia. Global QoL was a significant predictor of outcome in univariate analyses but was not retained in the multivariate model. HRQoL parameters are independent prognostic factors for outcome in advanced bladder cancer; their prognostic importance needs further evaluation.

Project M: Scale Model of Lunar Landing Site of Apollo 17

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Brien, Hollie; Crain, Timothy P.

2010-01-01

The basis of the project was creating a scale model representation of the Apollo 17 lunar landing site. Vital components included surface slope characteristics, crater sizes and locations, prominent rocks, and lighting conditions. The model was made for Project M support when evaluating approach and terminal descent as well as when planning surface operations with respect to the terrain. The project had five main mi lestones during the length of the project. The first was examining the best method to use to re-create the Apollo 17 landing site and then reviewing research fmdings with Dr. Tim Crain and EO staff which occurred on June 25, 2010 at a meeting. The second step was formulating a construction plan, budget, and schedule and then presenting the plan for authority to proceed which occurred on July 6,2010. The third part was building a prototype to test materials and building processes which were completed by July 13, 2010. Next was assembling the landing site model and presenting a mid-term construction status report on July 29, 2010. The fifth and final milestone was demonstrating the model and presenting an exit pitch which happened on August 4, 2010. The project was very technical: it needed a lot of research about moon topography, lighting conditions and angles of the sun on the moon, Apollo 17, and Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT), before starting the actual building process. This required using Spreadsheets, searching internet sources and conducting personal meetings with project representatives. This information assisted the interns in deciding the scale of the model with respect to cracks, craters and rocks and their relative sizes as the objects mentioned could interfere with any of the Lunar Landers: Apollo, Project M and future Landers. The project concluded with the completion of a three dimensional scale model of the Apollo 17 Lunar landing site. This model assists Project M members because they can now visualize approach phase, terminal descent phase, and surface phase operations on the physical model. The project had an additional requirement that was also satisfied: the granite table the model was placed on must be returnable to its original condition if needed in the future.

Spatial processes decouple management from objectives in a heterogeneous landscape: predator control as a case study.

PubMed

Mahoney, Peter J; Young, Julie K; Hersey, Kent R; Larsen, Randy T; McMillan, Brock R; Stoner, David C

2018-04-01

Predator control is often implemented with the intent of disrupting top-down regulation in sensitive prey populations. However, ambiguity surrounding the efficacy of predator management, as well as the strength of top-down effects of predators in general, is often exacerbated by the spatially implicit analytical approaches used in assessing data with explicit spatial structure. Here, we highlight the importance of considering spatial context in the case of a predator control study in south-central Utah. We assessed the spatial match between aerial removal risk in coyotes (Canis latrans) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) resource selection during parturition using a spatially explicit, multi-level Bayesian model. With our model, we were able to evaluate spatial congruence between management action (i.e., coyote removal) and objective (i.e., parturient deer site selection) at two distinct scales: the level of the management unit and the individual coyote removal. In the case of the former, our results indicated substantial spatial heterogeneity in expected congruence between removal risk and parturient deer site selection across large areas, and is a reflection of logistical constraints acting on the management strategy and differences in space use between the two species. At the level of the individual removal, we demonstrated that the potential management benefits of a removed coyote were highly variable across all individuals removed and in many cases, spatially distinct from parturient deer resource selection. Our methods and results provide a means of evaluating where we might anticipate an impact of predator control, while emphasizing the need to weight individual removals based on spatial proximity to management objectives in any assessment of large-scale predator control. Although we highlight the importance of spatial context in assessments of predator control strategy, we believe our methods are readily generalizable in any management or large-scale experimental framework where spatial context is likely an important driver of outcomes. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Using Dirichlet Processes for Modeling Heterogeneous Treatment Effects across Sites

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miratrix, Luke; Feller, Avi; Pillai, Natesh; Pati, Debdeep

2016-01-01

Modeling the distribution of site level effects is an important problem, but it is also an incredibly difficult one. Current methods rely on distributional assumptions in multilevel models for estimation. There it is hoped that the partial pooling of site level estimates with overall estimates, designed to take into account individual variation as…

Calibrating the sqHIMMELI v1.0 wetland methane emission model with hierarchical modeling and adaptive MCMC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susiluoto, Jouni; Raivonen, Maarit; Backman, Leif; Laine, Marko; Makela, Jarmo; Peltola, Olli; Vesala, Timo; Aalto, Tuula

2018-03-01

Estimating methane (CH4) emissions from natural wetlands is complex, and the estimates contain large uncertainties. The models used for the task are typically heavily parameterized and the parameter values are not well known. In this study, we perform a Bayesian model calibration for a new wetland CH4 emission model to improve the quality of the predictions and to understand the limitations of such models.The detailed process model that we analyze contains descriptions for CH4 production from anaerobic respiration, CH4 oxidation, and gas transportation by diffusion, ebullition, and the aerenchyma cells of vascular plants. The processes are controlled by several tunable parameters. We use a hierarchical statistical model to describe the parameters and obtain the posterior distributions of the parameters and uncertainties in the processes with adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), importance resampling, and time series analysis techniques. For the estimation, the analysis utilizes measurement data from the Siikaneva flux measurement site in southern Finland. The uncertainties related to the parameters and the modeled processes are described quantitatively. At the process level, the flux measurement data are able to constrain the CH4 production processes, methane oxidation, and the different gas transport processes. The posterior covariance structures explain how the parameters and the processes are related. Additionally, the flux and flux component uncertainties are analyzed both at the annual and daily levels. The parameter posterior densities obtained provide information regarding importance of the different processes, which is also useful for development of wetland methane emission models other than the square root HelsinkI Model of MEthane buiLd-up and emIssion for peatlands (sqHIMMELI). The hierarchical modeling allows us to assess the effects of some of the parameters on an annual basis. The results of the calibration and the cross validation suggest that the early spring net primary production could be used to predict parameters affecting the annual methane production. Even though the calibration is specific to the Siikaneva site, the hierarchical modeling approach is well suited for larger-scale studies and the results of the estimation pave way for a regional or global-scale Bayesian calibration of wetland emission models.

Multi-Scale, Direct and Indirect Effects of the Urban Stream Syndrome on Amphibian Communities in Streams

PubMed Central

Canessa, Stefano; Parris, Kirsten M.

2013-01-01

Urbanization affects streams by modifying hydrology, increasing pollution and disrupting in-stream and riparian conditions, leading to negative responses by biotic communities. Given the global trend of increasing urbanization, improved understanding of its direct and indirect effects at multiple scales is needed to assist management. The theory of stream ecology suggests that the riverscape and the surrounding landscape are inextricably linked, and watershed-scale processes will also affect in-stream conditions and communities. This is particularly true for species with semi-aquatic life cycles, such as amphibians, which transfer energy between streams and surrounding terrestrial areas. We related measures of urbanization at different scales to frog communities in streams along an urbanization gradient in Melbourne, Australia. We used boosted regression trees to determine the importance of predictors and the shape of species responses. We then used structural equation models to investigate possible indirect effects of watershed imperviousness on in-stream parameters. The proportion of riparian vegetation and road density surrounding the site at the reach scale (500-m radius) had positive and negative effects, respectively, on species richness and on the occurrence of the two most common species in the area ( Crinia signifera and Limnodynastesdumerilii ). Road density and local aquatic vegetation interacted in influencing species richness, suggesting that isolation of a site can prevent colonization, in spite of apparently good local habitat. Attenuated imperviousness at the catchment scale had a negative effect on local aquatic vegetation, indicating possible indirect effects on frog species not revealed by single-level models. Processes at the landscape scale, particularly related to individual ranging distances, can affect frog species directly and indirectly. Catchment imperviousness might not affect adult frogs directly, but by modifying hydrology it can disrupt local vegetation and prove indirectly detrimental. Integrating multiple-scale management actions may help to meet conservation targets for streams in the face of urbanization. PMID:23922963

TopoSCALE v.1.0: downscaling gridded climate data in complex terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiddes, J.; Gruber, S.

2014-02-01

Simulation of land surface processes is problematic in heterogeneous terrain due to the the high resolution required of model grids to capture strong lateral variability caused by, for example, topography, and the lack of accurate meteorological forcing data at the site or scale it is required. Gridded data products produced by atmospheric models can fill this gap, however, often not at an appropriate spatial resolution to drive land-surface simulations. In this study we describe a method that uses the well-resolved description of the atmospheric column provided by climate models, together with high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs), to downscale coarse-grid climate variables to a fine-scale subgrid. The main aim of this approach is to provide high-resolution driving data for a land-surface model (LSM). The method makes use of an interpolation of pressure-level data according to topographic height of the subgrid. An elevation and topography correction is used to downscale short-wave radiation. Long-wave radiation is downscaled by deriving a cloud-component of all-sky emissivity at grid level and using downscaled temperature and relative humidity fields to describe variability with elevation. Precipitation is downscaled with a simple non-linear lapse and optionally disaggregated using a climatology approach. We test the method in comparison with unscaled grid-level data and a set of reference methods, against a large evaluation dataset (up to 210 stations per variable) in the Swiss Alps. We demonstrate that the method can be used to derive meteorological inputs in complex terrain, with most significant improvements (with respect to reference methods) seen in variables derived from pressure levels: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and incoming long-wave radiation. This method may be of use in improving inputs to numerical simulations in heterogeneous and/or remote terrain, especially when statistical methods are not possible, due to lack of observations (i.e. remote areas or future periods).

The role of physical habitat and sampling effort on estimates of benthic macroinvertebrate taxonomic richness at basin and site scales.

PubMed

Silva, Déborah R O; Ligeiro, Raphael; Hughes, Robert M; Callisto, Marcos

2016-06-01

Taxonomic richness is one of the most important measures of biological diversity in ecological studies, including those with stream macroinvertebrates. However, it is impractical to measure the true richness of any site directly by sampling. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of sampling effort on estimates of macroinvertebrate family and Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) genera richness at two scales: basin and stream site. In addition, we tried to determine which environmental factors at the site scale most influenced the amount of sampling effort needed. We sampled 39 sites in the Cerrado biome (neotropical savanna). In each site, we obtained 11 equidistant samples of the benthic assemblage and multiple physical habitat measurements. The observed basin-scale richness achieved a consistent estimation from Chao 1, Jack 1, and Jack 2 richness estimators. However, at the site scale, there was a constant increase in the observed number of taxa with increased number of samples. Models that best explained the slope of site-scale sampling curves (representing the necessity of greater sampling effort) included metrics that describe habitat heterogeneity, habitat structure, anthropogenic disturbance, and water quality, for both macroinvertebrate family and EPT genera richness. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering basin- and site-scale sampling effort in ecological surveys and that taxa accumulation curves and richness estimators are good tools for assessing sampling efficiency. The physical habitat explained a significant amount of the sampling effort needed. Therefore, future studies should explore the possible implications of physical habitat characteristics when developing sampling objectives, study designs, and calculating the needed sampling effort.

The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, M. A.

2016-12-01

The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM) is a process-based model that was designed to address rangelands conditions. RHEM is designed for government agencies, land managers and conservationists who need sound, science-based technology to model, assess, and predict runoff and erosion rates on rangelands and to assist in evaluating rangeland conservation practices effects. RHEM is an event-based model that estimates runoff, erosion, and sediment delivery rates and volumes at the spatial scale of the hillslope and the temporal scale of as single rainfall event. It represents erosion processes under normal and fire-impacted rangeland conditions. Moreover, it adopts a new splash erosion and thin sheet-flow transport equation developed from rangeland data, and it links the model hydrologic and erosion parameters with rangeland plant community by providing a new system of parameter estimation equations based on 204 plots at 49 rangeland sites distributed across 15 western U.S. states. A dynamic partial differential sediment continuity equation is used to model the total detachment rate of concentrated flow and rain splash and sheet flow. RHEM is also designed to be used as a calculator, or "engine", within other watershed scale models. From the research perspective RHEM acts as a vehicle for incorporating new scientific findings from rangeland infiltration, runoff, and erosion studies. Current applications of the model include: 1) a web site for general use (conservation planning, research, etc.), 2) National Resource Inventory reports to Congress, 3) as a computational engine within watershed scale models (e.g., KINEROS, HEC), 4) Ecological Site & State and Transition Descriptions, 5) proposed in 2015 to become part of the NRCS Desktop applications for field offices.

Multiscale patterns in the diversity and organization of benthic intertidal fauna among French Atlantic estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchet, Hugues; Gouillieux, Benoît; Alizier, Sandrine; Amouroux, Jean-Michel; Bachelet, Guy; Barillé, Anne-Laure; Dauvin, Jean-Claude; de Montaudouin, Xavier; Derolez, Valérie; Desroy, Nicolas; Grall, Jacques; Grémare, Antoine; Hacquebart, Pascal; Jourde, Jérôme; Labrune, Céline; Lavesque, Nicolas; Meirland, Alain; Nebout, Thiebaut; Olivier, Frédéric; Pelaprat, Corine; Ruellet, Thierry; Sauriau, Pierre-Guy; Thorin, Sébastien

2014-07-01

Based on a parallel sampling conducted during autumn 2008, a comparative study of the intertidal benthic macrofauna among 10 estuarine systems located along the Channel and Atlantic coasts of France was performed in order to assess the level of fauna similarity among these sites and to identify possible environmental factors involved in the observed pattern at both large (among sites) and smaller (benthic assemblages) scales. More precisely this study focused on unraveling the observed pattern of intertidal benthic fauna composition and diversity observed at among-site scale by exploring both biotic and abiotic factors acting at the among- and within-site scales. Results showed a limited level of similarity at the among-site level in terms of intertidal benthic fauna composition and diversity. The observed pattern did not fit with existing transitional water classification methods based on fish or benthic assemblages developed in the frame of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). More particularly, the coastal plain estuaries displayed higher among-site similarity compared to ria systems. These coastal plain estuaries were characterized by higher influence of river discharge, lower communication with the ocean and high suspended particulate matter levels. On the other hand, the ria-type systems were more dissimilar and different from the coastal plain estuaries. The level of similarity among estuaries was mainly linked to the relative extent of the intertidal "Scrobicularia plana-Cerastoderma edule" and "Tellina tenuis" or "Venus" communities as a possible consequence of salinity regime, suspended matter concentrations and fine particles supply with consequences on the trophic functioning, structure and organization of benthic fauna. Despite biogeographical patterns, the results also suggest that, in the context of the WFD, these estuaries should only be compared on the basis of the most common intertidal habitat occurring throughout all estuarine systems and that the EUNIS biotope classification might be used for this purpose. In addition, an original inverse relation between γ-diversity and area was shown; however, its relevance might be questioned.

Final Technical Report, City of Brockton Solar Brightfield: Deploying a Solar Array on a Brockton Brownfield

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ribeiro, Lori

The City of Brockton, Massachusetts sought to install New England’s largest solar array at a remediated brownfield site on Grove Street. The 425-kilowatt solar photovoltaic array – or “Brightfield” – was installed in an urban park setting along with interpretive displays to maximize the educational opportunities. The “Brightfield” project included 1,395 310-Watt solar panels connected in “strings” that span the otherwise unusable 3.7-acre site. The project demonstrated that it is both technically and economically feasible to install utility scale solar photovoltaics on a capped landfill site. The US Department of Energy conceived the Brightfields program in 2000, and Brockton’s Brightfieldmore » is the largest such installation nationwide. Brockton’s project demonstrated that while it was both technically and economically feasible to perform such a project, the implementation was extremely challenging due to the state policy barriers, difficulty obtaining grant funding, and level of sophistication required to perform the financing and secure required state approvals. This demonstration project can be used as a model for other communities that wish to implement “Brownfields to Brightfields” projects; 2) implementing utility scale solar creates economies of scale that can help to decrease costs of photovoltaics; 3) the project is an aesthetic, environmental, educational and economic asset for the City of Brockton.« less

Understanding CO2 Plume Behavior and Basin-Scale Pressure Changes during Sequestration Projects through the use of Reservoir Fluid Modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leetaru, H.E.; Frailey, S.M.; Damico, J.; Mehnert, E.; Birkholzer, J.; Zhou, Q.; Jordan, P.D.

2009-01-01

Large scale geologic sequestration tests are in the planning stages around the world. The liability and safety issues of the migration of CO2 away from the primary injection site and/or reservoir are of significant concerns for these sequestration tests. Reservoir models for simulating single or multi-phase fluid flow are used to understand the migration of CO2 in the subsurface. These models can also help evaluate concerns related to brine migration and basin-scale pressure increases that occur due to the injection of additional fluid volumes into the subsurface. The current paper presents different modeling examples addressing these issues, ranging from simple geometric models to more complex reservoir fluid models with single-site and basin-scale applications. Simple geometric models assuming a homogeneous geologic reservoir and piston-like displacement have been used for understanding pressure changes and fluid migration around each CO2 storage site. These geometric models are useful only as broad approximations because they do not account for the variation in porosity, permeability, asymmetry of the reservoir, and dip of the beds. In addition, these simple models are not capable of predicting the interference between different injection sites within the same reservoir. A more realistic model of CO2 plume behavior can be produced using reservoir fluid models. Reservoir simulation of natural gas storage reservoirs in the Illinois Basin Cambrian-age Mt. Simon Sandstone suggest that reservoir heterogeneity will be an important factor for evaluating storage capacity. The Mt. Simon Sandstone is a thick sandstone that underlies many significant coal fired power plants (emitting at least 1 million tonnes per year) in the midwestern United States including the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, and Ohio. The initial commercial sequestration sites are expected to inject 1 to 2 million tonnes of CO2 per year. Depending on the geologic structure and permeability anisotropy, the CO2 injected into the Mt. Simon are expected to migrate less than 3 km. After 30 years of continuous injection followed by 100 years of shut-in, the plume from a 1 million tonnes a year injection rate is expected to migrate 1.6 km for a 0 degree dip reservoir and over 3 km for a 5 degree dip reservoir. The region where reservoir pressure increases in response to CO2 injection is typically much larger than the CO2 plume. It can thus be anticipated that there will be basin wide interactions between different CO2 injection sources if multiple, large volume sites are developed. This interaction will result in asymmetric plume migration that may be contrary to reservoir dip. A basin- scale simulation model is being developed to predict CO2 plume migration, brine displacement, and pressure buildup for a possible future sequestration scenario featuring multiple CO2 storage sites within the Illinois Basin Mt. Simon Sandstone. Interactions between different sites will be evaluated with respect to impacts on pressure and CO2 plume migration patterns. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling and estimating pollen movement in oilseed rape (Brassica napus) at the landscape scale using genetic markers.

PubMed

Devaux, C; Lavigne, C; Austerlitz, F; Klein, E K

2007-02-01

Understanding patterns of pollen movement at the landscape scale is important for establishing management rules following the release of genetically modified (GM) crops. We use here a mating model adapted to cultivated species to estimate dispersal kernels from the genotypes of the progenies of male-sterile plants positioned at different sampling sites within a 10 x 10-km oilseed rape production area. Half of the pollen clouds sampled by the male-sterile plants originated from uncharacterized pollen sources that could consist of both large volunteer and feral populations, and fields within and outside the study area. The geometric dispersal kernel was the most appropriate to predict pollen movement in the study area. It predicted a much larger proportion of long-distance pollination than previously fitted dispersal kernels. This best-fitting mating model underestimated the level of differentiation among pollen clouds but could predict its spatial structure. The estimation method was validated on simulated genotypic data, and proved to provide good estimates of both the shape of the dispersal kernel and the rate and composition of pollen issued from uncharacterized pollen sources. The best dispersal kernel fitted here, the geometric kernel, should now be integrated into models that aim at predicting gene flow at the landscape level, in particular between GM and non-GM crops.

Evaluating the influence of spatial resolution of Landsat predictors on the accuracy of biomass models for large-area estimation across the eastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deo, Ram K.; Domke, Grant M.; Russell, Matthew B.; Woodall, Christopher W.; Andersen, Hans-Erik

2018-05-01

Aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates for regional-scale forest planning have become cost-effective with the free access to satellite data from sensors such as Landsat and MODIS. However, the accuracy of AGB predictions based on passive optical data depends on spatial resolution and spatial extent of target area as fine resolution (small pixels) data are associated with smaller coverage and longer repeat cycles compared to coarse resolution data. This study evaluated various spatial resolutions of Landsat-derived predictors on the accuracy of regional AGB models at three different sites in the eastern USA: Maine, Pennsylvania-New Jersey, and South Carolina. We combined national forest inventory data with Landsat-derived predictors at spatial resolutions ranging from 30–1000 m to understand the optimal spatial resolution of optical data for large-area (regional) AGB estimation. Ten generic models were developed using the data collected in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and the predictions were evaluated (i) at the county-level against the estimates of the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis Program which relied on EVALIDator tool and national forest inventory data from the 2009–2013 cycle and (ii) within a large number of strips (~1 km wide) predicted via LiDAR metrics at 30 m spatial resolution. The county-level estimates by the EVALIDator and Landsat models were highly related (R 2 > 0.66), although the R 2 varied significantly across sites and resolution of predictors. The mean and standard deviation of county-level estimates followed increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, with models of coarser resolution. The Landsat-based total AGB estimates were larger than the LiDAR-based total estimates within the strips, however the mean of AGB predictions by LiDAR were mostly within one-standard deviations of the mean predictions obtained from the Landsat-based model at any of the resolutions. We conclude that satellite data at resolutions up to 1000 m provide acceptable accuracy for continental scale analysis of AGB.

Gradient Analysis and Classification of Carolina Bay Vegetation: A Framework for Bay Wetlands Conservation and Restoration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diane De Steven,Ph.D.; Maureen Tone,PhD.

1997-10-01

This report address four project objectives: (1) Gradient model of Carolina bay vegetation on the SRS--The authors use ordination analyses to identify environmental and landscape factors that are correlated with vegetation composition. Significant factors can provide a framework for site-based conservation of existing diversity, and they may also be useful site predictors for potential vegetation in bay restorations. (2) Regional analysis of Carolina bay vegetation diversity--They expand the ordination analyses to assess the degree to which SRS bays encompass the range of vegetation diversity found in the regional landscape of South Carolina's western Upper Coastal Plain. Such comparisons can indicatemore » floristic status relative to regional potentials and identify missing species or community elements that might be re-introduced or restored. (3) Classification of vegetation communities in Upper Coastal Plain bays--They use cluster analysis to identify plant community-types at the regional scale, and explore how this classification may be functional with respect to significant environmental and landscape factors. An environmentally-based classification at the whole-bay level can provide a system of templates for managing bays as individual units and for restoring bays to desired plant communities. (4) Qualitative model for bay vegetation dynamics--They analyze present-day vegetation in relation to historic land uses and disturbances. The distinctive history of SRS bays provides the possibility of assessing pathways of post-disturbance succession. They attempt to develop a coarse-scale model of vegetation shifts in response to changing site factors; such qualitative models can provide a basis for suggesting management interventions that may be needed to maintain desired vegetation in protected or restored bays.« less

Site-level evaluation of satellite-based global terrestrial gross primary production and net primary production monitoring.

Treesearch

David P. Turner; William D. Ritts; Warren B. Cohen; Thomas K. Maeirsperger; Stith T. Gower; Al A. Kirschbaum; Steve W. Runnings; Maosheng Zhaos; Steven C. Wofsy; Allison L. Dunn; Beverly E. Law; John L. Campbell; Walter C. Oechel; Hyo Jung Kwon; Tilden P. Meyers; Eric E. Small; Shirley A. Kurc; John A. Gamon

2005-01-01

Operational monitoring of global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) is now underway using imagery from the satellite-borne Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. Evaluation of MODIS GPP and NPP products will require site-level studies across a range of biomes, with close attention to numerous scaling...

Predictive assimilation framework to support contaminated site understanding and remediation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Versteeg, R. J.; Bianchi, M.; Hubbard, S. S.

2014-12-01

Subsurface system behavior at contaminated sites is driven and controlled by the interplay of physical, chemical, and biological processes occurring at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Effective remediation and monitoring planning requires an understanding of this complexity that is current, predictive (with some level of confidence) and actionable. We present and demonstrate a predictive assimilation framework (PAF). This framework automatically ingests, quality controls and stores near real-time environmental data and processes these data using different inversion and modeling codes to provide information on the current state and evolution of the subsurface system. PAF is implemented as a cloud based software application which has five components: (1) data acquisition, (2) data management, (3) data assimilation and processing, (4) visualization and result deliver and (5) orchestration. Access to and interaction with PAF is done through a standard browser. PAF is designed to be modular so that it can ingest and process different data streams dependent on the site. We will present an implementation of PAF which uses data from a highly instrumented site (the DOE Rifle Subsurface Biogeochemistry Field Observatory in Rifle, Colorado) for which PAF automatically ingests hydrological data and forward models groundwater flow in the saturated zone.

Classification as a generic tool for characterising status and changes of regional scale groundwater systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthel, Roland; Haaf, Ezra

2016-04-01

Regional hydrogeology is becoming increasingly important, but at the same time, scientifically sound, universal solutions for typical groundwater problems encountered on the regional scale are hard to find. While managers, decision-makers and state agencies operating on regional and national levels have always shown a strong interest in regional scale hydrogeology, researchers from academia tend to avoid the subject, focusing instead on local scales. Additionally, hydrogeology has always had a tendency to regard every problem as unique to its own site- and problem-specific context. Regional scale hydrogeology is therefore pragmatic rather than aiming at developing generic methodology (Barthel, 2014; Barthel and Banzhaf, 2016). One of the main challenges encountered on the regional scale in hydrogeology is the extreme heterogeneity that generally increases with the size of the studied area - paired with relative data scarcity. Even in well-monitored regions of the world, groundwater observations are usually clustered, leaving large areas without any direct data. However, there are many good reasons for assessing the status and predicting the behavior of groundwater systems under conditions of global change even for those areas and aquifers without observations. This is typically done by using rather coarsely discretized and / or poorly parameterized numerical models, or by using very simplistic conceptual hydrological models that do not take into account the complex three-dimensional geological setup. Numerical models heavily rely on local data and are resource-demanding. Conceptual hydrological models only deliver reliable information on groundwater if the geology is extremely simple. In this contribution, we present an approach to derive statistically relevant information for un-monitored areas, making use of existing information from similar localities that are or have been monitored. The approach combines site-specific knowledge with conceptual assumptions on the behavior of groundwater systems. It is based on the hypothesis that similar groundwater systems respond similarly to similar impacts. At its core is the classification of (i) static hydrogeological characteristics (such as aquifer geometry and hydraulic properties), (ii) dynamic changes of the boundary conditions (such as recharge, water levels in surface waters), and (iii) dynamic groundwater system responses (groundwater head and chemical parameters). The dependencies of system responses on explanatory variables are used to map knowledge from observed locations to areas without measurements. Classification of static and dynamic system features combined with information about known system properties and their dependencies provide insight into system behavior that cannot be directly derived through the analysis of raw data. Classification and dependency analysis could finally lead to a new framework for groundwater system assessment on the regional scale as a replacement or supplement to numerical groundwater models and catchment scale hydrological models. This contribution focusses on the main hydrogeological concepts underlying the approach while another EGU contribution (Haaf and Barthel, 2016) explains the methodologies used to classify groundwater systems. References: Barthel, R., 2014. A call for more fundamental science in regional hydrogeology. Hydrogeol J, 22(3): 507-510. Barthel, R., Banzhaf, S., 2016. Groundwater and Surface Water Interaction at the Regional-scale - A Review with Focus on Regional Integrated Models. Water Resour Manag, 30(1): 1-32. Haaf, E., Barthel, R., 2016. An approach for classification of hydrogeological systems at the regional scale based on groundwater hydrographs. Abstract submitted to EGU General Assembly 2016, Vienna, Austria.

Regional Management Units for Marine Turtles: A Novel Framework for Prioritizing Conservation and Research across Multiple Scales

PubMed Central

Wallace, Bryan P.; DiMatteo, Andrew D.; Hurley, Brendan J.; Finkbeiner, Elena M.; Bolten, Alan B.; Chaloupka, Milani Y.; Hutchinson, Brian J.; Abreu-Grobois, F. Alberto; Amorocho, Diego; Bjorndal, Karen A.; Bourjea, Jerome; Bowen, Brian W.; Dueñas, Raquel Briseño; Casale, Paolo; Choudhury, B. C.; Costa, Alice; Dutton, Peter H.; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Girard, Alexandre; Girondot, Marc; Godfrey, Matthew H.; Hamann, Mark; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; Marcovaldi, Maria Angela; Mortimer, Jeanne A.; Musick, John A.; Nel, Ronel; Pilcher, Nicolas J.; Seminoff, Jeffrey A.; Troëng, Sebastian; Witherington, Blair; Mast, Roderic B.

2010-01-01

Background Resolving threats to widely distributed marine megafauna requires definition of the geographic distributions of both the threats as well as the population unit(s) of interest. In turn, because individual threats can operate on varying spatial scales, their impacts can affect different segments of a population of the same species. Therefore, integration of multiple tools and techniques — including site-based monitoring, genetic analyses, mark-recapture studies and telemetry — can facilitate robust definitions of population segments at multiple biological and spatial scales to address different management and research challenges. Methodology/Principal Findings To address these issues for marine turtles, we collated all available studies on marine turtle biogeography, including nesting sites, population abundances and trends, population genetics, and satellite telemetry. We georeferenced this information to generate separate layers for nesting sites, genetic stocks, and core distributions of population segments of all marine turtle species. We then spatially integrated this information from fine- to coarse-spatial scales to develop nested envelope models, or Regional Management Units (RMUs), for marine turtles globally. Conclusions/Significance The RMU framework is a solution to the challenge of how to organize marine turtles into units of protection above the level of nesting populations, but below the level of species, within regional entities that might be on independent evolutionary trajectories. Among many potential applications, RMUs provide a framework for identifying data gaps, assessing high diversity areas for multiple species and genetic stocks, and evaluating conservation status of marine turtles. Furthermore, RMUs allow for identification of geographic barriers to gene flow, and can provide valuable guidance to marine spatial planning initiatives that integrate spatial distributions of protected species and human activities. In addition, the RMU framework — including maps and supporting metadata — will be an iterative, user-driven tool made publicly available in an online application for comments, improvements, download and analysis. PMID:21253007

Temperate rain forest species partition fine-scale gradients in light availability based on their leaf mass per area (LMA)

PubMed Central

Fajardo, Alex; Siefert, Andrew

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Ecologists are increasingly using plant functional traits to predict community assembly, but few studies have linked functional traits to species’ responses to fine-scale resource gradients. In this study, it was tested whether saplings of woody species partition fine-scale gradients in light availability based on their leaf mass per area (LMA) in three temperate rain forests and one Mediterranean forest in southern Chile. Methods LMA was measured under field conditions of all woody species contained in approx. 60 plots of 2 m2 in each site, and light availability, computed as the gap light index (GLI), was determined. For each site, species’ pairwise differences in mean LMA (Δ LMA) and abundance-weighted mean GLI (Δ light response) of 2 m2 plots were calculated and it was tested whether they were positively related using Mantel tests, i.e. if species with different LMA values differed in their response to light availability. Additionally linear models were fitted to the relationship between plot-level mean LMA and GLI across plots for each site. Key Results A positive and significant relationship was found between species’ pairwise differences in mean LMA and differences in light response across species for all temperate rain forests, but not for the Mediterranean forest. The results also indicated a significant positive interspecific link between LMA and light availability for all forests. This is in contrast to what is traditionally reported and to expectations from the leaf economics spectrum. Conclusions In environments subjected to light limitation, interspecific differences in a leaf trait (LMA) can explain the fine-scale partitioning of light availability gradients by woody plant species. This niche partitioning potentially facilitates species coexistence at the within-community level. The high frequency of evergreen shade-intolerant species in these forests may explain the positive correlation between light availability and LMA. PMID:27604280

STEM and APT characterization of scale formation on a La,Hf,Ti-doped NiCrAl model alloy.

PubMed

Unocic, Kinga A; Chen, Yimeng; Shin, Dongwon; Pint, Bruce A; Marquis, Emmanuelle A

2018-06-01

A thermally grown scale formed on a cast NiCrAl model alloy doped with lanthanum, hafnium, and titanium was examined after isothermal exposure at 1100 °C for 100 h in dry flowing O 2 to understand the dopant segregation along scale grain boundaries. The complex scale formed on the alloy surface was composed of two types of substrates: phase-dependent, thin (<250 nm) outer layers and a columnar-grained ∼3.5 μm inner alumina layer. Two types of oxides formed between the inner and outer scale layers: small (3-15 nm) La 2 O 3 and larger (≤50 nm) HfO 2 oxide precipitates. Nonuniform distributions of the hafnium, lanthanum, and titanium dopants were observed along the inner scale grain boundaries, with hafnium dominating in most of the grain boundaries of α-Al 2 O 3. The concentration of reactive elements (RE) seemed to strongly depend on the grain boundary structure. The level of titanium grain boundary segregation in the inner scale decreased toward the model alloy (substrate), confirming the fast outward diffusion of titanium. Hafnium was also observed at the metal-scale interface and in the γ' (Ni 3 Al) phase of the alloy. High-resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) confirmed the substitution of REs for aluminum atoms at the scale grain boundaries, consistent with both the semiconducting band structure and the site-blocking models. Both STEM and atom probe tomography allowed quantification of REs along the scale grain boundaries across the scale thickness. Analysis of the scale morphology after isothermal exposure in flowing oxygen revealed a myriad of new precipitate phases, RE segregation dependence on grain boundary type, and atomic arrangement along scale grain boundaries, which is expected to influence the scale growth rate, stability, and mechanical properties. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Cartosat-1 Multi-Scale Digital Surface Modelling Over France

PubMed Central

Gianinetto, Marco

2009-01-01

On 5 May 2005, the Indian Space Research Organization launched Cartosat-1, the eleventh satellite of its constellation, dedicated to the stereo viewing of the Earth's surface for terrain modeling and large-scale mapping, from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre (India). In early 2006, the Indian Space Research Organization started the Cartosat-1 Scientific Assessment Programme, jointly established with the International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. Within this framework, this study evaluated the capabilities of digital surface modeling from Cartosat-1 stereo data for the French test sites of Mausanne les Alpilles and Salon de Provence. The investigation pointed out that for hilly territories it is possible to produce high-resolution digital surface models with a root mean square error less than 7.1 m and a linear error at 90% confidence level less than 9.5 m. The accuracy of the generated digital surface models also fulfilled the requirements of the French Reference 3D®, so Cartosat-1 data may be used to produce or update such kinds of products. PMID:22412311

Southern California Permanent GPS Geodetic Array: Continuous measurements of regional crustal deformation between the 1992 Landers and 1994 Northridge earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bock, Y.; Wdowinski, S.; Fang, P.; Zhang, Jiahua; Williams, S.; Johnson, H.; Behr, J.; Genrich, J.; Dean, J.; Van Domselaar, M.; Agnew, D.; Wyatt, F.; Stark, K.; Oral, B.; Hudnut, K.; King, R.; Herring, T.; Dinardo, S.; Young, W.; Jackson, D.; Gurtner, W.

1997-01-01

The southern California Permanent GPS Geodetic Array (PGGA) was established in 1990 across the Pacific-North America plate boundary to continuously monitor crustal deformation. We describe the development of the array and the time series of daily positions estimated for its first 10 sites in the 19-month period between the June 28, 1992 (Mw=7.3), Landers and January 17, 1994 (Mw=6.7), Northridge earthquakes. We compare displacement rates at four site locations with those reported by Feigl et al. [1993], which were derived from an independent set of Global Positioning System (GPS) and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) measurements collected over nearly a decade prior to the Landers earthquake. The velocity differences for three sites 65-100 km from the earthquake's epicenter are of order of 3-5 mm/yr and are systematically coupled with the corresponding directions of coseismic displacement. The fourth site, 300 km from the epicenter, shows no significant velocity difference. These observations suggest large-scale postseismic deformation with a relaxation time of at least 800 days. The statistical significance of our observations is complicated by our incomplete knowledge of the noise properties of the two data sets; two possible noise models fit the PGGA data equally well as described in the companion paper by Zhang et al. [this issue]; the pre-Landers data are too sparse and heterogeneous to derive a reliable noise model. Under a fractal white noise model for the PGGA data we find that the velocity differences for all three sites are statistically different at the 99% significance level. A white noise plus flicker noise model results in significance levels of only 94%, 43%, and 88%. Additional investigations of the pre-Landers data, and analysis of longer spans of PGGA data, could have an important effect on the significance of these results and will be addressed in future work. Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

Modeling field-scale cosolvent flooding for DNAPL source zone remediation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Hailian; Falta, Ronald W.

2008-02-01

A three-dimensional, compositional, multiphase flow simulator was used to model a field-scale test of DNAPL removal by cosolvent flooding. The DNAPL at this site was tetrachloroethylene (PCE), and the flooding solution was an ethanol/water mixture, with up to 95% ethanol. The numerical model, UTCHEM accounts for the equilibrium phase behavior and multiphase flow of a ternary ethanol-PCE-water system. Simulations of enhanced cosolvent flooding using a kinetic interphase mass transfer approach show that when a very high concentration of alcohol is injected, the DNAPL/water/alcohol mixture forms a single phase and local mass transfer limitations become irrelevant. The field simulations were carried out in three steps. At the first level, a simple uncalibrated layered model is developed. This model is capable of roughly reproducing the production well concentrations of alcohol, but not of PCE. A more refined (but uncalibrated) permeability model is able to accurately simulate the breakthrough concentrations of injected alcohol from the production wells, but is unable to accurately predict the PCE removal. The final model uses a calibration of the initial PCE distribution to get good matches with the PCE effluent curves from the extraction wells. It is evident that the effectiveness of DNAPL source zone remediation is mainly affected by characteristics of the spatial heterogeneity of porous media and the variable (and unknown) DNAPL distribution. The inherent uncertainty in the DNAPL distribution at real field sites means that some form of calibration of the initial contaminant distribution will almost always be required to match contaminant effluent breakthrough curves.

Modeling field-scale cosolvent flooding for DNAPL source zone remediation.

PubMed

Liang, Hailian; Falta, Ronald W

2008-02-19

A three-dimensional, compositional, multiphase flow simulator was used to model a field-scale test of DNAPL removal by cosolvent flooding. The DNAPL at this site was tetrachloroethylene (PCE), and the flooding solution was an ethanol/water mixture, with up to 95% ethanol. The numerical model, UTCHEM accounts for the equilibrium phase behavior and multiphase flow of a ternary ethanol-PCE-water system. Simulations of enhanced cosolvent flooding using a kinetic interphase mass transfer approach show that when a very high concentration of alcohol is injected, the DNAPL/water/alcohol mixture forms a single phase and local mass transfer limitations become irrelevant. The field simulations were carried out in three steps. At the first level, a simple uncalibrated layered model is developed. This model is capable of roughly reproducing the production well concentrations of alcohol, but not of PCE. A more refined (but uncalibrated) permeability model is able to accurately simulate the breakthrough concentrations of injected alcohol from the production wells, but is unable to accurately predict the PCE removal. The final model uses a calibration of the initial PCE distribution to get good matches with the PCE effluent curves from the extraction wells. It is evident that the effectiveness of DNAPL source zone remediation is mainly affected by characteristics of the spatial heterogeneity of porous media and the variable (and unknown) DNAPL distribution. The inherent uncertainty in the DNAPL distribution at real field sites means that some form of calibration of the initial contaminant distribution will almost always be required to match contaminant effluent breakthrough curves.

Measurement and prediction of post-fire erosion at the hillslope scale, Colorado Front Range

Treesearch

Juan de Dios Benavides-Solorio; Lee H. MacDonald

2005-01-01

Post-fire soil erosion is of considerable concern because of the potential decline in site productivity and adverse effects on downstream resources. For the Colorado Front Range there is a paucity of post-fire erosion data and a corresponding lack of predictive models. This study measured hillslope-scale sediment production rates and site characteristics for three wild...

Modeling greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, N2O, CH4) from managed arable soils with a fully coupled hydrology-biogeochemical modeling system simulating water and nutrient transport and associated carbon and nitrogen cycling at catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klatt, Steffen; Haas, Edwin; Kraus, David; Kiese, Ralf; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Kraft, Philipp; Plesca, Ina; Breuer, Lutz; Zhu, Bo; Zhou, Minghua; Zhang, Wei; Zheng, Xunhua; Wlotzka, Martin; Heuveline, Vincent

2014-05-01

The use of mineral nitrogen fertilizer sustains the global food production and therefore the livelihood of human kind. The rise in world population will put pressure on the global agricultural system to increase its productivity leading most likely to an intensification of mineral nitrogen fertilizer use. The fate of excess nitrogen and its distribution within landscapes is manifold. Process knowledge on the site scale has rapidly grown in recent years and models have been developed to simulate carbon and nitrogen cycling in managed ecosystems on the site scale. Despite first regional studies, the carbon and nitrogen cycling on the landscape or catchment scale is not fully understood. In this study we present a newly developed modelling approach by coupling the fully distributed hydrology model CMF (catchment modelling framework) to the process based regional ecosystem model LandscapeDNDC for the investigation of hydrological processes and carbon and nitrogen transport and cycling, with a focus on nutrient displacement and resulting greenhouse gas emissions in a small catchment at the Yanting Agro-ecological Experimental Station of Purple Soil, Sichuan province, China. The catchment hosts cypress forests on the outer regions, arable fields on the sloping croplands cultivated with wheat-maize rotations and paddy rice fields in the lowland. The catchment consists of 300 polygons vertically stratified into 10 soil layers. Ecosystem states (soil water content and nutrients) and fluxes (evapotranspiration) are exchanged between the models at high temporal scales (hourly to daily) forming a 3-dimensional model application. The water flux and nutrients transport in the soil is modelled using a 3D Richards/Darcy approach for subsurface fluxes with a kinematic wave approach for surface water runoff and the evapotranspiration is based on Penman-Monteith. Biogeochemical processes are modelled by LandscapeDNDC, including soil microclimate, plant growth and biomass allocation, organic matter mineralisation, nitrification, denitrification, chemodenitrification and methanogenesis producing and consuming soil based greenhouse gases. The model application will present first validation results of the coupled model to simulate soil based greenhouse gas emissions as well as nitrate discharge from the Yanting catchment. The model application will also present the effects of different management practices (fertilization rates and timings, tilling, residues management) on the redistribution of N surplus within the catchment causing biomass productivity gradients and different levels of indirect N2O emissions along topographical gradients.

Obtaining high-resolution stage forecasts by coupling large-scale hydrologic models with sensor data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fries, K. J.; Kerkez, B.

2017-12-01

We investigate how "big" quantities of distributed sensor data can be coupled with a large-scale hydrologic model, in particular the National Water Model (NWM), to obtain hyper-resolution forecasts. The recent launch of the NWM provides a great example of how growing computational capacity is enabling a new generation of massive hydrologic models. While the NWM spans an unprecedented spatial extent, there remain many questions about how to improve forecast at the street-level, the resolution at which many stakeholders make critical decisions. Further, the NWM runs on supercomputers, so water managers who may have access to their own high-resolution measurements may not readily be able to assimilate them into the model. To that end, we ask the question: how can the advances of the large-scale NWM be coupled with new local observations to enable hyper-resolution hydrologic forecasts? A methodology is proposed whereby the flow forecasts of the NWM are directly mapped to high-resolution stream levels using Dynamical System Identification. We apply the methodology across a sensor network of 182 gages in Iowa. Of these sites, approximately one third have shown to perform well in high-resolution flood forecasting when coupled with the outputs of the NWM. The quality of these forecasts is characterized using Principal Component Analysis and Random Forests to identify where the NWM may benefit from new sources of local observations. We also discuss how this approach can help municipalities identify where they should place low-cost sensors to most benefit from flood forecasts of the NWM.

Seawater Polluted with Highly Concentrated Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Suppresses Osteoblastic Activity in the Scales of Goldfish, Carassius auratus.

PubMed

Suzuki, Nobuo; Sato, Masayuki; Nassar, Hossam F; Abdel-Gawad, Fagr Kh; Bassem, Samah M; Yachiguchi, Koji; Tabuchi, Yoshiaki; Endo, Masato; Sekiguchi, Toshio; Urata, Makoto; Hattori, Atsuhiko; Mishima, Hiroyuki; Shimasaki, Youhei; Oshima, Yuji; Hong, Chun-Sang; Makino, Fumiya; Tang, Ning; Toriba, Akira; Hayakawa, Kazuichi

2016-08-01

We have developed an original in vitro bioassay using teleost scale, that has osteoclasts, osteoblasts, and bone matrix as each marker: alkaline phosphatase (ALP) for osteoblasts and tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP) for osteoclasts. Using this scale in vitro bioassay, we examined the effects of seawater polluted with highly concentrated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and nitro-polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (NPAHs) on osteoblastic and osteoclastic activities in the present study. Polluted seawater was collected from two sites (the Alexandria site on the Mediterranean Sea and the Suez Canal site on the Red Sea). Total levels of PAHs in the seawater from the Alexandria and Suez Canal sites were 1364.59 and 992.56 ng/l, respectively. We were able to detect NPAHs in both seawater samples. Total levels of NPAHs were detected in the seawater of the Alexandria site (12.749 ng/l) and the Suez Canal site (3.914 ng/l). Each sample of polluted seawater was added to culture medium at dilution rates of 50, 100, and 500, and incubated with the goldfish scales for 6 hrs. Thereafter, ALP and TRAP activities were measured. ALP activity was significantly suppressed by both polluted seawater samples diluted at least 500 times, but TRAP activity did not change. In addition, mRNA expressions of osteoblastic markers (ALP, osteocalcin, and the receptor activator of the NF-κB ligand) decreased significantly, as did the ALP enzyme activity. In fact, ALP activity decreased on treatment with PAHs and NPAHs. We conclude that seawater polluted with highly concentrated PAHs and NPAHs influences bone metabolism in teleosts.

Model for teaching population health and community-based care across diverse clinical experiences.

PubMed

Van Dyk, Elizabeth J; Valentine-Maher, Sarah K; Tracy, Janet P

2015-02-01

The pillars constructivist model is designed to offer a unifying clinical paradigm to support consistent learning opportunities across diverse configurations of community and public health clinical sites. Thirty-six students and six faculty members participated in a mixed methods evaluation to assess the model after its inaugural semester of implementation. The evaluation methods included a rating scale that measures the model's ability to provide consistent learning opportunities at both population health and direct care sites, a case study to measure student growth within the five conceptual pillars, and a faculty focus group. Results revealed that the model served as an effective means of clinical education to support the use of multiple, small-scale public health sites. Although measurements of student growth within the pillars are inconclusive, the findings suggest efficacy. The authors recommend the continued use of the pillars constructivist model in baccalaureate programs, with further study of the author-designed evaluation tools. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

An online readability analysis of pathology-related patient education articles: an opportunity for pathologists to educate patients.

PubMed

Prabhu, Arpan V; Kim, Christopher; Crihalmeanu, Tudor; Hansberry, David R; Agarwal, Nitin; DeFrances, Marie C; Trejo Bittar, Humberto E

2017-07-01

Information for patients regarding their clinical conditions and treatment options is widely available online. The American Medical Association and National Institutes of Health recommend that online patient-oriented materials be written at no higher than a seventh-grade reading level to ensure full comprehension by the average American. This study sought to determine whether online patient-oriented materials explaining common pathology procedures are written at appropriate reading levels. Ten pathology procedures that patients would likely research were queried into Google search, and plain text from the first 10 Web sites containing patient education materials for each procedure was analyzed using 10 validated readability scales. We determined mean reading levels of materials grouped by readability scale, procedure, and Web site domain, the overall average reading level of all resources, and popular Web site domains. One hundred Web sites were accessed; one was omitted for short length (<100 words). The average reading grade level of the 99 materials, none of which met national health literacy guidelines (range, 7.3-17.4), was 10.9. Twenty-nine articles (29%) required a high school education for full comprehension, and 4 (4%) required an undergraduate college education. Most frequently accessed Web site domains included medlineplus.gov, webmd.com (both accessed 7 times), and labtestsonline.org (accessed 6 times). Average reading levels of the 11 most commonly accessed Web sites ranged from 8.25 (patient.info) to 12.25 (mayoclinic.org). Readability levels of most online pathology-related patient education materials exceeded those recommended by national health literacy guidelines. These patient education materials should be revised to help patients fully understand them. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

pH Control for Effective Anaerobic Bioremediation of Chlorinated Solvents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, C.; Barry, D.; Gerhard, J. I.; Kouznetsova, I.

2007-12-01

SABRE (Source Area BioREmediation) is a 4-year collaborative project that aims to evaluate the performance of enhanced anaerobic bioremediation for the treatment of chlorinated solvent DNAPL source areas. The project focuses on a pilot scale demonstration at a trichloroethene (TCE) DNAPL field site, and includes complementary laboratory and modelling studies. Organic acids and hydrogen ions (HCl) typically build up in the treatment zone during anaerobic bioremediation. In aquifer systems with relatively low buffering capacity the generation of these products can cause significant groundwater acidification thereby inhibiting dehalogenating activity. Where the soil buffering capacity is exceeded, addition of buffer may be needed for the effective continuation of TCE degradation. As an aid to the design of remediation schemes, a geochemical model was designed to predict the amount of buffer required to maintain the source zone pH at a suitable level for dechlorinating bacteria (i.e. > 6.5). The model accounts for the amount of TCE to be degraded, site water chemistry, type of organic amendment and soil mineralogy. It assumes complete dechlorination of TCE, and further considers mineral dissolution and precipitation kinetics. The model is applicable to a wide range of sites. For illustration we present results pertinent to the SABRE field site. Model results indicate that, for the extensive dechlorination expected in proximity to the SABRE DNAPL source zone, significant buffer addition may be necessary. Additional simulations are performed to identify buffer requirements over a wider range of field conditions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pau, G. S. H.; Bisht, G.; Riley, W. J.

Existing land surface models (LSMs) describe physical and biological processes that occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. For example, biogeochemical and hydrological processes responsible for carbon (CO 2, CH 4) exchanges with the atmosphere range from the molecular scale (pore-scale O 2 consumption) to tens of kilometers (vegetation distribution, river networks). Additionally, many processes within LSMs are nonlinearly coupled (e.g., methane production and soil moisture dynamics), and therefore simple linear upscaling techniques can result in large prediction error. In this paper we applied a reduced-order modeling (ROM) technique known as "proper orthogonal decomposition mapping method" thatmore » reconstructs temporally resolved fine-resolution solutions based on coarse-resolution solutions. We developed four different methods and applied them to four study sites in a polygonal tundra landscape near Barrow, Alaska. Coupled surface–subsurface isothermal simulations were performed for summer months (June–September) at fine (0.25 m) and coarse (8 m) horizontal resolutions. We used simulation results from three summer seasons (1998–2000) to build ROMs of the 4-D soil moisture field for the study sites individually (single-site) and aggregated (multi-site). The results indicate that the ROM produced a significant computational speedup (> 10 3) with very small relative approximation error (< 0.1%) for 2 validation years not used in training the ROM. We also demonstrate that our approach: (1) efficiently corrects for coarse-resolution model bias and (2) can be used for polygonal tundra sites not included in the training data set with relatively good accuracy (< 1.7% relative error), thereby allowing for the possibility of applying these ROMs across a much larger landscape. By coupling the ROMs constructed at different scales together hierarchically, this method has the potential to efficiently increase the resolution of land models for coupled climate simulations to spatial scales consistent with mechanistic physical process representation.« less

Embarrassment When Illness Strikes A Close Relative: A World Mental Health Survey Consortium Multi-Site Study

PubMed Central

Ahmedani, Brian K.; Kubiak, Sheryl Pimlott; Kessler, Ronald C.; de Graaf, Ron; Alonso, Jordi; Bruffaerts, Ronny; Zarkov, Zahari; Viana, Maria Carmen; Huang, Y.Q.; Hu, Chiyi; Posada-Villa, Jose A.; Lepine, Jean-Pierre; Angermeyer, Matthias C.; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Karam, Aimee N.; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Gureje, Oye; Ferry, Finola; Sagar, Rajesh; Anthony, James C.

2014-01-01

Background This global study seeks to estimate the degree to which a family member might feel embarrassed when a close relative is suffering from an alcohol, drug, or mental health condition (ADMC) versus a general medical condition (GMC). To date, most studies have considered embarrassment and stigma in society and internalized by the afflicted individual, but have not assessed family embarrassment in a large scale study. Method In 16 sites of the World Mental Health Surveys (WMHS), standardized assessments were completed including items on family embarrassment. Site matching was used to constrain local socially shared determinants of stigma-related feelings, enabling a conditional logistic regression model that estimates the embarrassment close relatives may hold in relation to family members affected by an ADMC, GMC, or both conditions. Results There was a statistically robust association such that subgroups with an ADMC-affected relative were more likely to feel embarrassed as compared to subgroups with a relative affected by a GMC (p<0.001), even with covariate adjustments for age and sex. Conclusions The pattern of evidence from this research is consistent with conceptual models for interventions that target individual- and family-level stigma-related feelings of embarrassment as might be part of the obstacles to effective early intervention and treatment for ADMC conditions. Macro-level interventions are underway, but micro-level interventions also may be required among family members, along with care for each person with an ADMC. PMID:23298443

Reactive transport in the complex heterogeneous alluvial aquifer of Fortymile Wash, Nevada

DOE PAGES

Soltanian, Mohamad Reza; Sun, Alexander; Dai, Zhenxue

2017-04-02

Yucca Mountain, Nevada, had been extensively investigated as a potential deep geologic repository for storing high-level nuclear wastes. Previous field investigations of stratified alluvial aquifer downstream of the site revealed that there is a hierarchy of sedimentary facies types. There is a corresponding log conductivity and reactive surface area subpopulations within each facies at each scale of sedimentary architecture. Here in this paper, we use a Lagrangian-based transport model in order to analyze radionuclide dispersion in the saturated alluvium of Fortymile Wash, Nevada. First, we validate the Lagrangian model using high-resolution flow and reactive transport simulations. Then, we used themore » validated model to investigate how each scale of sedimentary architecture may affect long-term radionuclide transport at Yucca Mountain. Results show that the reactive solute dispersion developed by the Lagrangian model matches the ensemble average of numerical simulations well. The link between the alluvium spatial variability and reactive solute dispersion at different spatiotemporal scales is demonstrated using the Lagrangian model. Finally, the longitudinal dispersivity of the reactive plume can be on the order of hundreds to thousands of meters, and it may not reach its asymptotic value even after 10,000 years of travel time and 2–3 km of travel distance.« less

An experimental and modeling study of grain-scale uranium desorption from field-contaminated sediments and the potential influence of microporosity on mass-transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoliker, D.; Liu, C.; Kent, D. B.; Zachara, J. M.

2012-12-01

The aquifer below the 300-Area of the Hanford site (Richland, WA, USA) is plagued by a persistent plume of dissolved uranium (U(VI)) in excess of the Environmental Protection Agency drinking water maximum contamination level even after the removal of highly contaminated sediments. The aquifer sediments in the seasonally saturated lower vadose zone act as both a source and sink for uranium during stage changes in the nearby Columbia River. Diffusion limitation of uranium mass-transfer within these sediments has been cited as a potential cause of the plume's persistence. Equilibrium U(VI) sorption is a strong function of variable chemical conditions, especially carbonate, hydrogen, and uranyl ion activities. Field-contaminated sediments from the site require up to 1,000 hours to reach equilibrium in static batch reactors. Increases in U(VI) concentrations over longer time-scales result from changes in chemical conditions, which drive reactions with sediments that favor U(VI) desorption. Grain-scale U(VI) sorption/desorption rates are slow, likely owing to diffusion of U(VI) and other solutes through intra-granular pore domains. In order to improve understanding of the impact of intra-granular diffusion and chemical reactions controlling grain-scale U(VI) release, experiments were conducted on individual particle size fractions of a <8 mm composite of field-contaminated, lower vadose zone sediments. For each size fraction, equilibrium U(VI) sorption/desorption in static batch reactors was well-described by surface complexation models over a range of chemical conditions applicable to the field site. Desorption rates from individual size fractions in flow-through batch reactors, examined under a single set of constant chemical conditions with multiple stop-flow events, were similar for all size fractions <2 mm. Kinetic U(VI) desorption in flow-through batch reactors was modeled using a multi-rate surface complexation approach, where sorption/desorption rates were assumed to be proportional to the displacement from equilibrium and multiple diffusion domains were described with a two-parameter lognormal distribution of mass-transfer rate coefficients. Parameters describing mass transfer were the same for all size fractions <2 mm but differed for the largest (2-8 mm) size fraction. The evolution of pH, along with dissolved cation and carbonate concentrations, was modeled using equilibrium cation exchange, rate-limited calcite dissolution, aerobic respiration, and silica dissolution. Desorption and chemical reaction models calibrated with individual size fractions predicted U(VI) and chemical composition as a function of time for the bulk sediment sample. Volumes of pores less than 2.4 nm, quantified using nitrogen adsorption-desorption isotherms, were the same for all size fractions < 2 mm, nearly double that of the 2-8 mm size fraction. Similarity in the observed pore volumes and multi-rate mass-transfer parameters across all size fractions <2 mm suggest the importance of pores in this size class in controlling slow grain-scale U(VI) desorption rates. Models like these provide a means for testing the influence of grain-scale mass-transfer on the persistence of U(VI) plume at the site.

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agriculturalmore » Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.« less

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold; Boote, Kenneth J.; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Martre, Pierre; McDermid, Sonali P.; Müller, Christoph; Snyder, Abigail; Thorburn, Peter J.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.

Field scale manure born animal waste management : GIS application

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Intensive beef backgrounding often accumulate manure born soil nutrients, microbes, and pharmaceuticals at different site locations. Unless properly managed, such waste materials can pollute surrounding soil and water sources. Soil sampling from these sites helps determining waste material levels bu...

Modeling marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) habitat using LiDAR-derived canopy data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hagar, Joan C.; Eskelson, Bianca N.I.; Haggerty, Patricia K.; Nelson, S. Kim; Vesely, David G.

2014-01-01

LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) is an emerging remote-sensing tool that can provide fine-scale data describing vertical complexity of vegetation relevant to species that are responsive to forest structure. We used LiDAR data to estimate occupancy probability for the federally threatened marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in the Oregon Coast Range of the United States. Our goal was to address the need identified in the Recovery Plan for a more accurate estimate of the availability of nesting habitat by developing occupancy maps based on refined measures of nest-strand structure. We used murrelet occupancy data collected by the Bureau of Land Management Coos Bay District, and canopy metrics calculated from discrete return airborne LiDAR data, to fit a logistic regression model predicting the probability of occupancy. Our final model for stand-level occupancy included distance to coast, and 5 LiDAR-derived variables describing canopy structure. With an area under the curve value (AUC) of 0.74, this model had acceptable discrimination and fair agreement (Cohen's κ = 0.24), especially considering that all sites in our sample were regarded by managers as potential habitat. The LiDAR model provided better discrimination between occupied and unoccupied sites than did a model using variables derived from Gradient Nearest Neighbor maps that were previously reported as important predictors of murrelet occupancy (AUC = 0.64, κ = 0.12). We also evaluated LiDAR metrics at 11 known murrelet nest sites. Two LiDAR-derived variables accurately discriminated nest sites from random sites (average AUC = 0.91). LiDAR provided a means of quantifying 3-dimensional canopy structure with variables that are ecologically relevant to murrelet nesting habitat, and have not been as accurately quantified by other mensuration methods.

Field-scale sulfur hexafluoride tracer experiment to understand long distance gas transport in the deep unsaturated zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walvoord, Michelle Ann; Andraski, Brian J.; Green, Christopher T.; Stonestrom, David A.; Striegl, Robert G.

2014-01-01

A natural gradient SF6 tracer experiment provided an unprecedented evaluation of long distance gas transport in the deep unsaturated zone (UZ) under controlled (known) conditions. The field-scale gas tracer test in the 110-m-thick UZ was conducted at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS) in southwestern Nevada. A history of anomalous (theoretically unexpected) contaminant gas transport observed at the ADRS, next to the first commercial low-level radioactive waste disposal facility in the United States, provided motivation for the SF6 tracer study. Tracer was injected into a deep UZ borehole at depths of 15 and 48 m, and plume migration was observed in a monitoring borehole 9 m away at various depths (0.5–109 m) over the course of 1 yr. Tracer results yielded useful information about gas transport as applicable to the spatial scales of interest for off-site contaminant transport in arid unsaturated zones. Modeling gas diffusion with standard empirical expressions reasonably explained SF6 plume migration, but tended to underpredict peak concentrations for the field-scale experiment given previously determined porosity information. Despite some discrepancies between observations and model results, rapid SF6 gas transport commensurate with previous contaminant migration was not observed. The results provide ancillary support for the concept that apparent anomalies in historic transport behavior at the ADRS are the result of factors other than nonreactive gas transport properties or processes currently in effect in the undisturbed UZ.

A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels.

PubMed

Pandey, Pramod K; Pasternack, Gregory B; Majumder, Mahbubul; Soupir, Michelle L; Kaiser, Mark S

2015-03-01

Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale.

Scaling-Relation-Based Analysis of Bifunctional Catalysis: The Case for Homogeneous Bimetallic Alloys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andersen, Mie; Medford, Andrew J.; Norskov, Jens K.

Here, we present a generic analysis of the implications of energetic scaling relations on the possibilities for bifunctional gains at homogeneous bimetallic alloy catalysts. Such catalysts exhibit a large number of interface sites, where second-order reaction steps can involve intermediates adsorbed at different active sites. Using different types of model reaction schemes, we show that such site-coupling reaction steps can provide bifunctional gains that allow for a bimetallic catalyst composed of two individually poor catalyst materials to approach the activity of the optimal monomaterial catalyst. However, bifunctional gains cannot result in activities higher than the activity peak of the monomaterialmore » volcano curve as long as both sites obey similar scaling relations, as is generally the case for bimetallic catalysts. These scaling-relation-imposed limitations could be overcome by combining different classes of materials such as metals and oxides.« less

Scaling-Relation-Based Analysis of Bifunctional Catalysis: The Case for Homogeneous Bimetallic Alloys

DOE PAGES

Andersen, Mie; Medford, Andrew J.; Norskov, Jens K.; ...

2017-04-14

Here, we present a generic analysis of the implications of energetic scaling relations on the possibilities for bifunctional gains at homogeneous bimetallic alloy catalysts. Such catalysts exhibit a large number of interface sites, where second-order reaction steps can involve intermediates adsorbed at different active sites. Using different types of model reaction schemes, we show that such site-coupling reaction steps can provide bifunctional gains that allow for a bimetallic catalyst composed of two individually poor catalyst materials to approach the activity of the optimal monomaterial catalyst. However, bifunctional gains cannot result in activities higher than the activity peak of the monomaterialmore » volcano curve as long as both sites obey similar scaling relations, as is generally the case for bimetallic catalysts. These scaling-relation-imposed limitations could be overcome by combining different classes of materials such as metals and oxides.« less

Accretion of a New England (U.S.A.) salt march in response to inlet migration, storms, and sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roman, C.T.; Peck, J.A.; Allen, J.R.; King, J.W.; Appleby, P.G.

1997-01-01

Sediment accumulation rates were determined at several sites throughout Nauset Marsh (Massachusetts, U.S.A.), a back-barrier lagoonal system, using feldspar marker horizons to evaluate short-term rates (1 to 2 year scales) and radiometric techniques to estimate rates over longer time scales (137Cs, 210Pb, 14C). The barrier spit fronting the Spartina-dominated study site has a complex geomorphic history of inlet migration and over-wash events. This study evaluates sediment accumulation rates in relation to inlet migration, storm events, and sea-level rise. The marker horizon technique displayed strong temporal and spatial variability in response to storm events and proximity to the inlet. Sediment accumulation rates of up to 24 mm year -1 were recorded in the immediate vicinity of the inlet during a period that included several major coastal storms, while feldspar sites remote from the inlet had substantially lower rates (trace accumulation to 2.2 mm year -1). During storm-free periods, accumulation rates did not exceed 6.7 mm year -1, but remained quite variable among sites. Based on 137Cs (3.8 to 4.5 mm year -1) and 210Pb (2.6 to 4.2 mm year -1) radiometric techniques, integrating sediment accumulation over decadal time scales, the marsh appeared to be keeping pace with the relative rate of sealevel rise from 1921 to 1993 of 2.4 mm year -1. At one site, the 210Pb-based sedimentation rate and rate of relative sea-level rise were nearly similar and peat rhizome analysis revealed that Distichlis spicata recently replaced this once S.patens site, suggesting that this portion of Nauset Marsh may be getting wetter, thus representing an initial response to wetland submergence. Horizon markers are useful in evaluating the role of short-term events, such as storms or inlet migration, influencing marsh sedimentation processes. However, sampling methods that integrate marsh sedimentation over decadal time scales are preferable when evaluating a systems response to sea-level rise.

The acid-base titration of montmorillonite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourg, I. C.; Sposito, G.; Bourg, A. C.

2003-12-01

Proton binding to clay minerals plays an important role in the chemical reactivity of soils (e.g., acidification, retention of nutrients or pollutants). If should also affect the performance of clay barriers for waste disposal. The surface acidity of clay minerals is commonly modelled empirically by assuming generic amphoteric surface sites (>SOH) on a flat surface, with fitted site densities and acidity constant. Current advances in experimental methods (notably spectroscopy) are rapidly improving our understanding of the structure and reactivity of the surface of clay minerals (arrangement of the particles, nature of the reactive surface sites, adsorption mechanisms). These developments are motivated by the difficulty of modelling the surface chemistry of mineral surfaces at the macro-scale (e.g., adsorption or titration) without a detailed (molecular-scale) picture of the mechanisms, and should be progressively incorporated into surface complexation models. In this view, we have combined recent estimates of montmorillonite surface properties (surface site density and structure, edge surface area, surface electrostatic potential) with surface site acidities obtained from the titration of alpha-Al2O3 and SiO2, and a novel method of accounting for the unknown initial net proton surface charge of the solid. The model predictions were compared to experimental titrations of SWy-1 montmorillonite and purified MX-80 bentonite in 0.1-0.5 mol/L NaClO4 and 0.005-0.5 mol/L NaNO3 background electrolytes, respectively. Most of the experimental data were appropriately described by the model after we adjusted a single parameter (silanol sites on the surface of montmorillonite were made to be slightly more acidic than those of silica). At low ionic strength and acidic pH the model underestimated the buffering capacity of the montmorillonite, perhaps due to clay swelling or to the interlayer adsorption of dissolved aluminum. The agreement between our model and the experimental data illustrates the complementarity of molecular and macro-scale descriptions of the clay reactivity.

Multiscale site-response mapping: A case study of Parkfield, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, E.M.; Baise, L.G.; Kayen, R.E.; Morgan, E.C.; Kaklamanos, J.

2011-01-01

The scale of previously proposed methods for mapping site-response ranges from global coverage down to individual urban regions. Typically, spatial coverage and accuracy are inversely related.We use the densely spaced strong-motion stations in Parkfield, California, to estimate the accuracy of different site-response mapping methods and demonstrate a method for integrating multiple site-response estimates from the site to the global scale. This method is simply a weighted mean of a suite of different estimates, where the weights are the inverse of the variance of the individual estimates. Thus, the dominant site-response model varies in space as a function of the accuracy of the different models. For mapping applications, site-response models should be judged in terms of both spatial coverage and the degree of correlation with observed amplifications. Performance varies with period, but in general the Parkfield data show that: (1) where a velocity profile is available, the square-rootof- impedance (SRI) method outperforms the measured VS30 (30 m divided by the S-wave travel time to 30 m depth) and (2) where velocity profiles are unavailable, the topographic slope method outperforms surficial geology for short periods, but geology outperforms slope at longer periods. We develop new equations to estimate site response from topographic slope, derived from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) database.

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display in Germany

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-03-10

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display. A full-scale model of the James Webb Space Telescope was built by the prime contractor, Northrop Grumman, to provide a better understanding of the size, scale and complexity of this satellite. The model is constructed mainly of aluminum and steel, weighs 12,000 lb., and is approximately 80 feet long, 40 feet wide and 40 feet tall. The model requires 2 trucks to ship it and assembly takes a crew of 12 approximately four days. This model has travelled to a few sites since 2005. The photographs below were taken at some of its destinations. The model is pictured here in Munich, Germany Credit: EADS Astrium

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display in Germany

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display. A full-scale model of the James Webb Space Telescope was built by the prime contractor, Northrop Grumman, to provide a better understanding of the size, scale and complexity of this satellite. The model is constructed mainly of aluminum and steel, weighs 12,000 lb., and is approximately 80 feet long, 40 feet wide and 40 feet tall. The model requires 2 trucks to ship it and assembly takes a crew of 12 approximately four days. This model has travelled to a few sites since 2005. The photographs below were taken at some of its destinations. The model is pictured here in Munich, Germany Credit: EADS Astrium

Electrokinetic remediation of plutonium-contaminated nuclear site wastes: results from a pilot-scale on-site trial.

PubMed

Agnew, Kieran; Cundy, Andrew B; Hopkinson, Laurence; Croudace, Ian W; Warwick, Phillip E; Purdie, Philip

2011-02-28

This paper examines the field-scale application of a novel low-energy electrokinetic technique for the remediation of plutonium-contaminated nuclear site soils, using soil wastes from the Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE) Aldermaston site, Berkshire, UK as a test medium. Soils and sediments with varying composition, contaminated with Pu through historical site operations, were electrokinetically treated at laboratory-scale with and without various soil pre-conditioning agents. Results from these bench-scale trials were used to inform a larger on-site remediation trial, using an adapted containment pack with battery power supply. 2.4 m(3) (ca. 4t onnes) of Pu-contaminated soil was treated for 60 days at a power consumption of 33 kWh/m(3), and then destructively sampled. Radiochemical data indicate mobilisation of Pu in the treated soil, and migration (probably as a negatively charged Pu-citrate complex) towards the anodic compartment of the treatment cell. Soil in the cathodic zone of the treatment unit was remediated to a level below free-release disposal thresholds (1.7 Bq/g, or <0.4 Bq/g above background activities). The data show the potential of this method as a low-cost, on-site tool for remediation of radioactively contaminated soils and wastes which can be operated remotely on working sites, with minimal disruption to site infrastructure or operations. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Harbour porpoise distribution can vary at small spatiotemporal scales in energetic habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjamins, Steven; van Geel, Nienke; Hastie, Gordon; Elliott, Jim; Wilson, Ben

2017-07-01

Marine habitat heterogeneity underpins species distribution and can be generated through interactions between physical and biological drivers at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) is used worldwide to study potential impacts of marine industrial activities on cetaceans, but understanding of animals' site use at small spatiotemporal scales (<1 km, <1 day) remains limited. Small-scale variability in vocalising harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) distribution within two Scottish marine renewable energy development (MRED) sites was investigated by deploying dense arrays of C-POD passive acoustic detectors at a wave energy test site (the European Marine Energy Centre [Billia Croo, Orkney]) and by a minor tidal-stream site (Scarba [Inner Hebrides]). Respective arrays consisted of 7 and 11 moorings containing two C-PODs each and were deployed for up to 55 days. Minimum inter-mooring distances varied between 300-600 m. All C-POD data were analysed at a temporal resolution of whole minutes, with each minute classified as 1 or 0 on the basis of presence/absence of porpoise click trains (Porpoise-Positive Minutes/PPMs). Porpoise detection rates were analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) with Generalised Estimation Equations (GEEs). Although there were many porpoise detections (wave test site: N=3,432; tidal-stream site: N=17,366), daily detection rates varied significantly within both arrays. Within the wave site array (<1 km diameter), average daily detection rates varied from 4.3 to 14.8 PPMs/day. Within the tidal-stream array (<2 km diameter), average daily detection rates varied from 10.3 to 49.7 PPMs/day. GAM-GEE model results for individual moorings within both arrays indicated linkages between porpoise presence and small-scale heterogeneity among different environmental covariates (e.g., tidal phase, time of day). Porpoise detection rates varied considerably but with coherent patterns between moorings only several hundred metres apart and within hours. These patterns presumably have ecological relevance. These results indicate that, in energetically active and heterogeneous areas, porpoises can display significant spatiotemporal variability in site use at scales of hundreds of metres and hours. Such variability will not be identified when using solitary moored PAM detectors (a common practice for site-based cetacean monitoring), but may be highly relevant for site-based impact assessments of MRED and other coastal developments. PAM arrays encompassing several detectors spread across a site therefore appear to be a more appropriate tool to study site-specific cetacean use of spatiotemporally heterogeneous habitat and assess the potential impacts of coastal and nearshore developments at small scales.

A model to predict stream water temperature across the conterminous USA

Treesearch

Catalina Segura; Peter Caldwell; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty; Yang Zhang

2014-01-01

Stream water temperature (ts) is a critical water quality parameter for aquatic ecosystems. However, ts records are sparse or nonexistent in many river systems. In this work, we present an empirical model to predict ts at the site scale across the USA. The model, derived using data from 171 reference sites selected from the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating...

ORCHIDEE-CNP: Site-Scale Evaluation against Observations from a Soil Formation Chronosequence in Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goll, D. S.; Vuichard, N.; Maignan, F.; Jornet-Puig, A.; Sardans, J.; Peng, S.; Sun, Y.; Kvakić, M.; Guimberteau, M.; Guenet, B.; Zaehle, S.; Penuelas, J.; Jannssens, I.; Ciais, P.

2017-12-01

Land surface models rarely incorporate the terrestrial phosphorus cycle and its interactions with the carbon cycle, despite the extensive scientific debate about the importance of nitrogen and phosphorus supply for future land carbon uptake. We describe a representation of the terrestrial phosphorus cycle for the land surface model ORCHIDEE, and evaluate it with data from nutrient manipulation experiments along a soil formation chronosequence in Hawaii. ORCHIDEE accounts for influence of nutritional state of vegetation on tissue nutrient concentrations, photosynthesis, plant growth, biomass allocation, biochemical (phosphatase-mediated) mineralization and biological nitrogen fixation. Changes in nutrient content (quality) of litter affect the carbon use efficiency of decomposition and in return the nutrient availability to vegetation. The model explicitly accounts for root zone depletion of phosphorus as a function of root phosphorus uptake and phosphorus transport from soil to the root surface. The model captures the observed differences in the foliage stoichiometry of vegetation between an early (300yr) and a late stage (4.1 Myr) of soil development. The contrasting sensitivities of net primary productivity to the addition of either nitrogen, phosphorus or both among sites are in general reproduced by the model. As observed, the model simulates a preferential stimulation of leaf level productivity when nitrogen stress is alleviated, while leaf level productivity and leaf area index are stimulated equally when phosphorus stress is alleviated. The nutrient use efficiencies in the model are lower as observed primarily due to biases in the nutrient content and turnover of woody biomass.

Modelling bidirectional fluxes of methanol and acetaldehyde with the FORCAsT canopy exchange model

DOE PAGES

Ashworth, Kirsti; Chung, Serena H.; McKinney, Karena A.; ...

2016-12-15

Here, the FORCAsT canopy exchange model was used to investigate the underlying mechanisms governing foliage emissions of methanol and acetaldehyde, two short chain oxygenated volatile organic compounds ubiquitous in the troposphere and known to have strong biogenic sources, at a northern mid-latitude forest site. The explicit representation of the vegetation canopy within the model allowed us to test the hypothesis that stomatal conductance regulates emissions of these compounds to an extent that its influence is observable at the ecosystem scale, a process not currently considered in regional- or global-scale atmospheric chemistry models. Here, we found that FORCAsT could only reproducemore » the magnitude and diurnal profiles of methanol and acetaldehyde fluxes measured at the top of the forest canopy at Harvard Forest if light-dependent emissions were introduced to the model. With the inclusion of such emissions, FORCAsT was able to successfully simulate the observed bidirectional exchange of methanol and acetaldehyde. Although we found evidence that stomatal conductance influences methanol fluxes and concentrations at scales beyond the leaf level, particularly at dawn and dusk, we were able to adequately capture ecosystem exchange without the addition of stomatal control to the standard parameterisations of foliage emissions, suggesting that ecosystem fluxes can be well enough represented by the emissions models currently used.« less

Final Report, 2011-2014. Forecasting Carbon Storage as Eastern Forests Age. Joining Experimental and Modeling Approaches at the UMBS AmeriFlux Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis, Peter; Bohrer, Gil; Gough, Christopher

2015-03-12

At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) AmeriFlux sites (US-UMB and US-UMd), long-term C cycling measurements and a novel ecosystem-scale experiment are revealing physical, biological, and ecological mechanisms driving long-term trajectories of C cycling, providing new data for improving modeling forecasts of C storage in eastern forests. Our findings provide support for previously untested hypotheses that stand-level structural and biological properties constrain long-term trajectories of C storage, and that remotely sensed canopy structural parameters can substantially improve model forecasts of forest C storage. Through the Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET), we are directly testing the hypothesis that forest Cmore » storage will increase due to increasing structural and biological complexity of the emerging tree communities. Support from this project, 2011-2014, enabled us to incorporate novel physical and ecological mechanisms into ecological, meteorological, and hydrological models to improve forecasts of future forest C storage in response to disturbance, succession, and current and long-term climate variation« less

Spatiotemporal Variability of Turbulence Kinetic Energy Budgets in the Convective Boundary Layer over Both Simple and Complex Terrain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rai, Raj K.; Berg, Larry K.; Pekour, Mikhail

The assumption of sub-grid scale (SGS) horizontal homogeneity within a model grid cell, which forms the basis of SGS turbulence closures used by mesoscale models, becomes increasingly tenuous as grid spacing is reduced to a few kilometers or less, such as in many emerging high-resolution applications. Herein, we use the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) budget equation to study the spatio-temporal variability in two types of terrain—complex (Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study [CBWES] site, north-eastern Oregon) and flat (ScaledWind Farm Technologies [SWiFT] site, west Texas) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In each case six-nested domains (three domains eachmore » for mesoscale and large-eddy simulation [LES]) are used to downscale the horizontal grid spacing from 10 km to 10 m using the WRF model framework. The model output was used to calculate the values of the TKE budget terms in vertical and horizontal planes as well as the averages of grid cells contained in the four quadrants (a quarter area) of the LES domain. The budget terms calculated along the planes and the mean profile of budget terms show larger spatial variability at CBWES site than at the SWiFT site. The contribution of the horizontal derivative of the shear production term to the total production shear was found to be 45% and 15% of the total shear, at the CBWES and SWiFT sites, respectively, indicating that the horizontal derivatives applied in the budget equation should not be ignored in mesoscale model parameterizations, especially for cases with complex terrain with <10 km scale.« less

Nothing left to chance? The impact of locus of control on physical and mental quality of life in terminal cancer patients.

PubMed

Brown, Alaina J; Thaker, Premal H; Sun, Charlotte C; Urbauer, Diana L; Bruera, Eduardo; Bodurka, Diane C; Ramondetta, Lois M

2017-06-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate if locus of control (LOC) predicts various quality of life (QOL) and mental well-being measures among terminally ill cancer patients at the time of palliative care consult. Multi-site analysis of patients with advanced cancer being seen as new patients in a Palliative and Supportive Care outpatient clinic. Patients completed the following surveys: locus of control (LOC) scale, Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-General (FACT-G), Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Spiritual (FACIT-Sp), Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale (HADS), and Herth Hope Index (HHI). Regression models were created to examine the effect of LOC upon QOL, symptoms, and other measures of mental well-being. These models adjusted for the effect of age, gender, race, partnership status, education, and months since diagnosis as potential confounders. This study enrolled 100 patients. After adjusting for site, race, and partnership status, higher levels of LOC chance predicted decreased QOL (FACT-G) (p < 0.01). Higher levels of LOC chance also correlated with increased depression and anxiety (p ≤ 0.01) and decreased meaning/peace and faith (p ≤ 0.01). Additionally, higher levels of LOC chance predicted decreased hope (HHI) (p ≤ 0.001). Terminally ill cancer patients with a high LOC chance may be at risk for decreased physical and mental well-being at the end of life. Efforts should be made to identify these patients and design interventions to increase their feeling of control over the situation in order to improve physical and mental well-being at the end of life.

Parasite community similarity in Athabasca River trout-perch (Percopsis omiscomaycus) varies with local-scale land use and sediment hydrocarbons, but not distance or linear gradients.

PubMed

Blanar, C A; Hewitt, M; McMaster, M; Kirk, J; Wang, Z; Norwood, W; Marcogliese, D J

2016-10-01

Parasite communities have been shown to be structured by processes at scales ranging from continental to microhabitat, but few studies have simultaneously considered spatial and environmental variables, measured at different scales, to assess their relative influences on parasite abundance, species richness, and community similarity. Parasite abundance, diversity, and community similarity in Athabasca River trout-perch (Percopsis omiscomaycus) were examined in relation to water quality, substrate profile, metal and organic compound levels in water and sediment, and landscape use patterns at different scales, as well as distance among sites and upstream-downstream position along the river. Although species richness did not differ among sites, there were significant differences in abundance of individual taxa and community structure. We observed a shift from communities dominated by larval trematodes Diplostomum spp. to domination by gill monogeneans Urocleidus baldwini, followed by a reversion further downstream. Variations in the abundance of these taxa and of overall community similarity were strongly correlated with sediment hydrocarbons (alkanes and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)) as well as landscape use within 5 km of study sites. No correlations were noted with any other predictors, indicating that parasite populations and communities in this system were likely primarily influenced by habitat level and landscape-scale filters, rather than larger-scale processes such as distance decay or river continuum effects.

Continental-scale, data-driven predictive assessment of eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, in sub-Saharan Africa by 2020.

PubMed

Michael, Edwin; Singh, Brajendra K; Mayala, Benjamin K; Smith, Morgan E; Hampton, Scott; Nabrzyski, Jaroslaw

2017-09-27

There are growing demands for predicting the prospects of achieving the global elimination of neglected tropical diseases as a result of the institution of large-scale nation-wide intervention programs by the WHO-set target year of 2020. Such predictions will be uncertain due to the impacts that spatial heterogeneity and scaling effects will have on parasite transmission processes, which will introduce significant aggregation errors into any attempt aiming to predict the outcomes of interventions at the broader spatial levels relevant to policy making. We describe a modeling platform that addresses this problem of upscaling from local settings to facilitate predictions at regional levels by the discovery and use of locality-specific transmission models, and we illustrate the utility of using this approach to evaluate the prospects for eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in sub-Saharan Africa by the WHO target year of 2020 using currently applied or newly proposed intervention strategies. METHODS AND RESULTS: We show how a computational platform that couples site-specific data discovery with model fitting and calibration can allow both learning of local LF transmission models and simulations of the impact of interventions that take a fuller account of the fine-scale heterogeneous transmission of this parasitic disease within endemic countries. We highlight how such a spatially hierarchical modeling tool that incorporates actual data regarding the roll-out of national drug treatment programs and spatial variability in infection patterns into the modeling process can produce more realistic predictions of timelines to LF elimination at coarse spatial scales, ranging from district to country to continental levels. Our results show that when locally applicable extinction thresholds are used, only three countries are likely to meet the goal of LF elimination by 2020 using currently applied mass drug treatments, and that switching to more intensive drug regimens, increasing the frequency of treatments, or switching to new triple drug regimens will be required if LF elimination is to be accelerated in Africa. The proportion of countries that would meet the goal of eliminating LF by 2020 may, however, reach up to 24/36 if the WHO 1% microfilaremia prevalence threshold is used and sequential mass drug deliveries are applied in countries. We have developed and applied a data-driven spatially hierarchical computational platform that uses the discovery of locally applicable transmission models in order to predict the prospects for eliminating the macroparasitic disease, LF, at the coarser country level in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in local parasite transmission and extinction dynamics, as well as the exact nature of intervention roll-outs in countries, will impact the timelines to achieving national LF elimination on this continent.

Earth System Modeling Tested for CLM4.5 in a Costa Rican Tropical Montane Rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, J.; Miller, G. R.; Cahill, A. T.; Aparecido, L. M. T.; Moore, G. W.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems in the tropics are important for global carbon and water cycling, which makes modeling of their land-surface processes essential for accurate understanding of land-atmosphere interactions. However, modeling of tropical regions, especially mountainous ones, is known to be subject to significant errors in the prediction of evapotranspiration. Our previous work has highlighted the effects of the prolonged wetness experienced by such sites, focusing on carbon and water exchange at the leaf/stand level. Here, we explore the implications these findings have for modeling at the stand/canopy scale. This study examined the performance of the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) against measurements from a tropical montane rainforest in Costa Rica. The study site receives over 4,000 mm of mean annual precipitation. Measurements include leaf temperatures, transpiration (sap flows), fluxes via eddy-covariance, and vertical profiles of H2O and CO2 concentrations, micrometeorological variables, and leaf wetness. In this work, results from point-scale CLM4.5 were compared to canopy data. The model fails to capture the effects of frequent rainfall events and mountainous topography on the variables of interest (temperatures, leaf wetness, and fluxes). We found that soil and leaf temperatures were overestimated (≈ +2°C) at noon and underestimated (≈ -1°C) during the night; daily transpiration was approximately double than that observed. Simulated leaf wetness deviated significantly from the measurements, both in timing and extent, which affected temperatures and evapotranspiration partitioning. Slope effects appeared in the average diurnal variations of surface albedo and carbon flux from actual data but were not captured in CLM. Our investigation indicated that interception and aerodynamic resistance models contribute to model errors, suggesting potential improvements for modeling in very wet and/or mountainous regions.

Three-dimensional geological modelling of anthropogenic deposits at small urban sites: a case study from Sheepcote Valley, Brighton, UK.

PubMed

Tame, C; Cundy, A B; Royse, K R; Smith, M; Moles, N R

2013-11-15

Improvements in computing speed and capacity and the increasing collection and digitisation of geological data now allow geoscientists to produce meaningful 3D spatial models of the shallow subsurface in many large urban areas, to predict ground conditions and reduce risk and uncertainty in urban planning. It is not yet clear how useful this 3D modelling approach is at smaller urban scales, where poorly characterised anthropogenic deposits (artificial/made ground and fill) form the dominant subsurface material and where the availability of borehole and other geological data is less comprehensive. This is important as it is these smaller urban sites, with complex site history, which frequently form the focus of urban regeneration and redevelopment schemes. This paper examines the extent to which the 3D modelling approach previously utilised at large urban scales can be extended to smaller less well-characterised urban sites, using a historic landfill site in Sheepcote Valley, Brighton, UK as a case study. Two 3D models were generated and compared using GSI3D™ software, one using borehole data only, one combining borehole data with local geological maps and results from a desk study (involving collation of available site data, including ground contour plans). These models clearly delimit the overall subsurface geology at the site, and allow visualisation and modelling of the anthropogenic deposits present. Shallow geophysical data collected from the site partially validate the 3D modelled data, and can improve GSI3D™ outputs where boundaries of anthropogenic deposits may not be clearly defined by surface, contour or borehole data. Attribution of geotechnical and geochemical properties to the 3D model is problematic without intrusive investigations and sampling. However, combining available borehole data, shallow geophysical methods and site histories may allow attribution of generic fill properties, and consequent reduction of urban development risk and uncertainty. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of atmospheric transport on ozone and trace- level toxic air contaminants over the northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brankov, Elvira

This thesis presents a methodology for examining the relationship between synoptic-scale atmospheric transport patterns and observed pollutant concentration levels. It involves calculating a large number of back-trajectories from the observational site and subjecting them to cluster analysis. The pollutant concentration data observed at that site are then segregated according to the back-trajectory clusters. If the pollutant observations extend over several seasons, it is important to filter out seasonal and long-term components from the time series data before pollutant cluster-segregation, because only the short-term component of the time series data is related to the synoptic-scale transport. Multiple comparison procedures are used to test for significant differences in the chemical composition of pollutant data associated with each cluster. This procedure is useful in indicating potential pollutant source regions and isolating meteorological regimes associated with pollutant transport from those regions. If many observational sites are available, the spatial and temporal scales of the pollution transport from a given direction can be extracted through the time-lagged inter- site correlation analysis of pollutant concentrations. The proposed methodology is applicable to any pollutant at any site if sufficiently abundant data set is available. This is illustrated through examination of five-year long time series data of ozone concentrations at several sites in the Northeast. The results provide evidence of ozone transport to these sites, revealing the characteristic spatial and temporal scales involved in the transport and identifying source regions for this pollutant. Problems related to statistical analyses of censored data are addressed in the second half of this thesis. Although censoring (reporting concentrations in a non-quantitative way) is typical for trace-level measurements, methods for statistical analysis, inference and interpretation of such data are complex and still under development. In this study, multiple comparison of censored data sets was required in order to examine the influence of synoptic- scale circulations on concentration levels of several trace-level toxic pollutants observed in the Northeast (e.g., As, Se, Mn, V, etc.). Since the traditional multiple comparison procedures are not readily applicable to such data sets, a Monte Carlo simulation study was performed to assess several nonparametric methods for multiple comparison of censored data sets. Application of an appropriate comparison procedure to clusters of toxic trace elements observed in the Northeast led to the identification of potential source regions and atmospheric patterns associated with the long-range transport of these pollutants. A method for comparison of proportions and elemental ratio calculations were used to confirm/clarify these inferences with a greater degree of confidence.

The Predicting Model of E-commerce Site Based on the Ideas of Curve Fitting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Zhang; Li, Zhang; Dingjun, Chen

On the basis of the idea of the second multiplication curve fitting, the number and scale of Chinese E-commerce site is analyzed. A preventing increase model is introduced in this paper, and the model parameters are solved by the software of Matlab. The validity of the preventing increase model is confirmed though the numerical experiment. The experimental results show that the precision of preventing increase model is ideal.

Multi-scale habitat selection modeling: A review and outlook

Treesearch

Kevin McGarigal; Ho Yi Wan; Kathy A. Zeller; Brad C. Timm; Samuel A. Cushman

2016-01-01

Scale is the lens that focuses ecological relationships. Organisms select habitat at multiple hierarchical levels and at different spatial and/or temporal scales within each level. Failure to properly address scale dependence can result in incorrect inferences in multi-scale habitat selection modeling studies.

On-site energy consumption at softwood sawmills in Montana

Treesearch

Dan Loeffler; Nathaniel Anderson; Todd A. Morgan; Colin B. Sorenson

2016-01-01

Total on-site energy requirements for wood product manufacturing are generally not well understood or publicly available, particularly at subregional scales, such as the state level. This article uses a mail survey of softwood sawmills in Montana to develop a profile of all on-site energy consumption. Energy use is delineated by fuel type on a production basis...

Watershed modeling at the Savannah River Site.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vache, Kellie

2015-04-29

The overall goal of the work was the development of a watershed scale model of hydrological function for application to the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). The primary outcomes is a grid based hydrological modeling system that captures near surface runoff as well as groundwater recharge and contributions of groundwater to streams. The model includes a physically-based algorithm to capture both evaporation and transpiration from forestland.

Climate-soil Interactions: Global Change, Local Properties, and Ecological Sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change is predicted to alter historic patterns of precipitation and temperature in rangelands globally. Vegetation community response to altered weather patterns will be mediated at the site level by local-scale properties that govern ecological potential, including geology, topograph...

Is site-specific APEX calibration necessary for field scale BMP assessment?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The possibility of extending parameter sets obtained at one site to sites with similar characteristics is appealing. This study was undertaken to test model performance and compare the effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs) using three parameters sets obtained from three watersheds when a...

Arctic shrub growth trajectories differ across soil moisture levels.

PubMed

Ackerman, Daniel; Griffin, Daniel; Hobbie, Sarah E; Finlay, Jacques C

2017-10-01

The circumpolar expansion of woody deciduous shrubs in arctic tundra alters key ecosystem properties including carbon balance and hydrology. However, landscape-scale patterns and drivers of shrub expansion remain poorly understood, inhibiting accurate incorporation of shrub effects into climate models. Here, we use dendroecology to elucidate the role of soil moisture in modifying the relationship between climate and growth for a dominant deciduous shrub, Salix pulchra, on the North Slope of Alaska, USA. We improve upon previous modeling approaches by using ecological theory to guide model selection for the relationship between climate and shrub growth. Finally, we present novel dendroecology-based estimates of shrub biomass change under a future climate regime, made possible by recently developed shrub allometry models. We find that S. pulchra growth has responded positively to mean June temperature over the past 2.5 decades at both a dry upland tundra site and an adjacent mesic riparian site. For the upland site, including a negative second-order term in the climate-growth model significantly improved explanatory power, matching theoretical predictions of diminishing growth returns to increasing temperature. A first-order linear model fit best at the riparian site, indicating consistent growth increases in response to sustained warming, possibly due to lack of temperature-induced moisture limitation in mesic habitats. These contrasting results indicate that S. pulchra in mesic habitats may respond positively to a wider range of temperature increase than S. pulchra in dry habitats. Lastly, we estimate that a 2°C increase in current mean June temperature will yield a 19% increase in aboveground S. pulchra biomass at the upland site and a 36% increase at the riparian site. Our method of biomass estimation provides an important link toward incorporating dendroecology data into coupled vegetation and climate models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Chatta, Ashfaq Ahmad; Ewert, Frank; Folberth, Christian; Hathie, Ibrahima; Havlik, Petr; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; MacCarthy, Dilys S.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Contreras, Erik Mencos; Müller, Christoph; Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio; Phillips, Meridel; Porter, Cheryl; Raymundo, Rubi M.; Sands, Ronald D.; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Valin, Hugo; Wiebe, Keith

2018-05-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in an increase in vulnerable households and the poverty rate. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments.

PubMed

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Chatta, Ashfaq Ahmad; Ewert, Frank; Folberth, Christian; Hathie, Ibrahima; Havlik, Petr; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; MacCarthy, Dilys S; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Contreras, Erik Mencos; Müller, Christoph; Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio; Phillips, Meridel; Porter, Cheryl; Raymundo, Rubi M; Sands, Ronald D; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Valdivia, Roberto O; Valin, Hugo; Wiebe, Keith

2018-05-13

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO 2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in an increase in vulnerable households and the poverty rate.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Coastal amplification laws for the French tsunami Warning Center: numerical modeling and fast estimate of tsunami wave heights along the French Riviera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gailler, A.; Schindelé, F.; Hebert, H.; Reymond, D.

2017-12-01

Tsunami modeling tools in the French tsunami Warning Center operational context provide for now warning levels with a no dimension scale, and at basin scale. A new forecast method based on coastal amplification laws has been tested to estimate the tsunami onshore height, with a focus on the French Riviera test-site (Nice area). This fast prediction tool provides a coastal tsunami height distribution, calculated from the numerical simulation of the deep ocean tsunami amplitude and using a transfer function derived from the Green's law. Due to a lack of tsunami observation in the western Mediterranean basin, coastal amplification parameters are here defined regarding high resolution nested grids simulations. The first encouraging results for the Nice test site on the basis of 9 historical and fake sources show a good agreement with the time-consuming high resolution modeling: the linear approximation provides within in general 1 minute estimates less a factor of 2 in amplitude, although the resonance effects in harbors and bays are not reproduced. In Nice harbor especially, variation in tsunami amplitude is something that cannot be really appreciated because of the magnitude range and maximum energy azimuth of possible events to account for. However, this method suits well for a fast first estimate of the coastal tsunami threat forecast.

GPCC - A weather generator-based statistical downscaling tool for site-specific assessment of climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Resolution of climate model outputs are too coarse to be used as direct inputs to impact models for assessing climate change impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and eco-system services at local or site-specific scales. Statistical downscaling approaches are usually used to bridge th...

Effects of organizational complexity and resources on construction site risk.

PubMed

Forteza, Francisco J; Carretero-Gómez, Jose M; Sesé, Albert

2017-09-01

Our research is aimed at studying the relationship between risk level and organizational complexity and resources on constructions sites. Our general hypothesis is that site complexity increases risk, whereas more resources of the structure decrease risk. A Structural Equation Model (SEM) approach was adopted to validate our theoretical model. To develop our study, 957 building sites in Spain were visited and assessed in 2003-2009. All needed data were obtained using a specific tool developed by the authors to assess site risk, structure and resources (Construction Sites Risk Assessment Tool, or CONSRAT). This tool operationalizes the variables to fit our model, specifically, via a site risk index (SRI) and 10 organizational variables. Our random sample is composed largely of small building sites with general high levels of risk, moderate complexity, and low resources on site. The model obtained adequate fit, and results showed empirical evidence that the factors of complexity and resources can be considered predictors of site risk level. Consequently, these results can help companies, managers of construction and regulators to identify which organizational aspects should be improved to prevent risks on sites and consequently accidents. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of near-surface potential temperature variance budgets for unstable atmospheric flows over vegetated and non-vegetated flat surfaces and a gentle slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hang, C.; Nadeau, D.; Pardyjak, E.; Parlange, M. B.

2017-12-01

Over the past decades, researchers have made much progress toward a fundamental understanding of the budgets of turbulence variables over flat and homogeneous terrain, and only more recently over complex terrain. However, temperature variance budgets, which are parameterized in most meteorological models, are still poorly understood even under relatively idealized conditions. In this work, we rely on near-surface turbulence observations collected as part of the Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations (MATERHORN) program. Data collected in May 2013 in western Utah at three field sites subjected to similar large-scale forcing are analyzed: a desert playa (dry lakebed), characterized by a at surface devoid of vegetation; a vegetated site, characterized by at valley oor covered with greasewood vegetation, and a mountain terrain site with a slope angle of 2 -4° and covered by high-elevation vegetation. The analysis reveals the presence of a 5-m layer where the production and dissipation terms of potential temperature variance (θ2) drop rapidly below this level. During convective periods, vertical advection and turbulent transport of θ2 can often be non-negligible, in particular at Playa and Slope sites. In addition, within the 5-m layer, turbulent transport of θ2 acts as a sink term at all sites of interest. Neither the ratio of turbulent transport to production nor the ratio of production to dissipation show a stability dependence during the unstable periods studied. A short-period comparison of dissipation rates calculated using dissipation-scale resolving hot-wire/cold-wire anemometry and several common indirect methods using sonic anemometry is presented for data acquired at Playa site. The results indicates that the dissipation rates from all methods follow similar trends, however the magnitudes can differ by a factor of 2 - 3.

Spatial heterogeneity in human activities favors the persistence of wolves in agroecosystems.

PubMed

Ahmadi, Mohsen; López-Bao, José Vicente; Kaboli, Mohammad

2014-01-01

As human populations expand, there is increasing demand and pressure for land. Under this scenario, behavioural flexibility and adaptation become important processes leading to the persistence of large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes such as agroecosystems. A growing interest has recently emerged on the outcome of the coexistence between wolves and humans in these systems. It has been suggested that spatial heterogeneity in human activities would be a major environmental factor modulating vulnerability and persistence of this contentious species in agroecosystems. Here, we combined information from 35 den sites detected between 2011 and 2012 in agroecosystems of western Iran (Hamedan province), a set of environmental variables measured at landscape and fine spatial scales, and generalized linear models to identify patterns of den site selection by wolves in a highly-modified agroecosystem. On a landscape level, wolves selected a mixture of rangelands with scattered dry-farms on hillsides (showing a low human use) to locate their dens, avoiding areas with high densities of settlements and primary roads. On a fine spatial scale, wolves primarily excavated dens into the sides of elevated steep-slope hills with availability of water bodies in the vicinity of den sites, and wolves were relegated to dig in places with coarse-soil particles. Our results suggest that vulnerability of wolves in human-dominated landscapes could be compensated by the existence of spatial heterogeneity in human activities. Such heterogeneity would favor wolf persistence in agroecosystems favoring a land sharing model of coexistence between wolves and people.

Spatial Heterogeneity in Human Activities Favors the Persistence of Wolves in Agroecosystems

PubMed Central

Ahmadi, Mohsen; López-Bao, José Vicente; Kaboli, Mohammad

2014-01-01

As human populations expand, there is increasing demand and pressure for land. Under this scenario, behavioural flexibility and adaptation become important processes leading to the persistence of large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes such as agroecosystems. A growing interest has recently emerged on the outcome of the coexistence between wolves and humans in these systems. It has been suggested that spatial heterogeneity in human activities would be a major environmental factor modulating vulnerability and persistence of this contentious species in agroecosystems. Here, we combined information from 35 den sites detected between 2011 and 2012 in agroecosystems of western Iran (Hamedan province), a set of environmental variables measured at landscape and fine spatial scales, and generalized linear models to identify patterns of den site selection by wolves in a highly-modified agroecosystem. On a landscape level, wolves selected a mixture of rangelands with scattered dry-farms on hillsides (showing a low human use) to locate their dens, avoiding areas with high densities of settlements and primary roads. On a fine spatial scale, wolves primarily excavated dens into the sides of elevated steep-slope hills with availability of water bodies in the vicinity of den sites, and wolves were relegated to dig in places with coarse-soil particles. Our results suggest that vulnerability of wolves in human-dominated landscapes could be compensated by the existence of spatial heterogeneity in human activities. Such heterogeneity would favor wolf persistence in agroecosystems favoring a land sharing model of coexistence between wolves and people. PMID:25251567

Spatial optimization for decentralized non-potable water reuse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavvada, Olga; Nelson, Kara L.; Horvath, Arpad

2018-06-01

Decentralization has the potential to reduce the scale of the piped distribution network needed to enable non-potable water reuse (NPR) in urban areas by producing recycled water closer to its point of use. However, tradeoffs exist between the economies of scale of treatment facilities and the size of the conveyance infrastructure, including energy for upgradient distribution of recycled water. To adequately capture the impacts from distribution pipes and pumping requirements, site-specific conditions must be accounted for. In this study, a generalized framework (a heuristic modeling approach using geospatial algorithms) is developed that estimates the financial cost, the energy use, and the greenhouse gas emissions associated with NPR (for toilet flushing) as a function of scale of treatment and conveyance networks with the goal of determining the optimal degree of decentralization. A decision-support platform is developed to assess and visualize NPR system designs considering topography, economies of scale, and building size. The platform can be used for scenario development to explore the optimal system size based on the layout of current or new buildings. The model also promotes technology innovation by facilitating the systems-level comparison of options to lower costs, improve energy efficiency, and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

Geological modeling of submeter scale heterogeneity and its influence on tracer transport in a fluvial aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronayne, Michael J.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Zheng, Chunmiao

2010-10-01

We developed a new model of aquifer heterogeneity to analyze data from a single-well injection-withdrawal tracer test conducted at the Macrodispersion Experiment (MADE) site on the Columbus Air Force Base in Mississippi (USA). The physical heterogeneity model is a hybrid that combines 3-D lithofacies to represent submeter scale, highly connected channels within a background matrix based on a correlated multivariate Gaussian hydraulic conductivity field. The modeled aquifer architecture is informed by a variety of field data, including geologic core sampling. Geostatistical properties of this hybrid heterogeneity model are consistent with the statistics of the hydraulic conductivity data set based on extensive borehole flowmeter testing at the MADE site. The representation of detailed, small-scale geologic heterogeneity allows for explicit simulation of local preferential flow and slow advection, processes that explain the complex tracer response from the injection-withdrawal test. Based on the new heterogeneity model, advective-dispersive transport reproduces key characteristics of the observed tracer recovery curve, including a delayed concentration peak and a low-concentration tail. Importantly, our results suggest that intrafacies heterogeneity is responsible for local-scale mass transfer.

Evaluation of Skylab (EREP) data for forest and rangeland surveys. [Georgia, South Dakota, Colorado, and California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aldrich, R. C. (Principal Investigator); Dana, R. W.; Greentree, W. J.; Roberts, E. H.; Norick, N. X.; Waite, T. H.; Francis, R. E.; Driscoll, R. S.; Weber, F. P.

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Four widely separated sites (near Augusta, Georgia; Lead, South Dakota; Manitou, Colorado; and Redding, California) were selected as typical sites for forest inventory, forest stress, rangeland inventory, and atmospheric and solar measurements, respectively. Results indicated that Skylab S190B color photography is good for classification of Level 1 forest and nonforest land (90 to 95 percent correct) and could be used as a data base for sampling by small and medium scale photography using regression techniques. The accuracy of Level 2 forest and nonforest classes, however, varied from fair to poor. Results of plant community classification tests indicate that both visual and microdensitometric techniques can separate deciduous, conifirous, and grassland classes to the region level in the Ecoclass hierarchical classification system. There was no consistency in classifying tree categories at the series level by visual photointerpretation. The relationship between ground measurements and large scale photo measurements of foliar cover had a correlation coefficient of greater than 0.75. Some of the relationships, however, were site dependent.

Understanding Hydraulic Fracturing: A Multi-Scale Problem

DOE PAGES

Hyman, Jeffrey De'Haven; Gimenez Martinez, Joaquin; Viswanathan, Hari S.; ...

2016-09-05

Despite the impact that hydraulic fracturing has had on the energy sector, the physical mechanisms that control its efficiency and environmental impacts remain poorly understood in part because the length scales involved range from nano-meters to kilo-meters. We characterize flow and transport in shale formations across and between these scales using integrated computational, theoretical, and experimental efforts. At the field scale, we use discrete fracture network modeling to simulate production at a well site whose fracture network is based on a site characterization of a shale formation. At the core scale, we use triaxial fracture experiments and a finite-element discrete-elementmore » fracture propagation model with a coupled fluid solver to study dynamic crack propagation in low permeability shale. We use lattice Boltzmann pore-scale simulations and microfluidic experiments in both synthetic and real micromodels to study pore-scale flow phenomenon such as multiphase flow and mixing. A mechanistic description and integration of these multiple scales is required for accurate predictions of production and the eventual optimization of hydrocarbon extraction from unconventional reservoirs.« less

Measuring disability across cultures — the psychometric properties of the WHODAS II in older people from seven low- and middle-income countries. The 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based survey

PubMed Central

Sousa, Renata M; Dewey, Michael E; Acosta, Daisy; Jotheeswaran, AT; Castro-Costa, Erico; Ferri, Cleusa P; Guerra, Mariella; Huang, Yueqin; Jacob, KS; Pichardo, Juana Guillermina Rodriguez; Ramírez, Nayeli Garcia; Rodriguez, Juan Llibre; Rodriguez, Marina Calvo; Salas, Aquiles; Sosa, Ana Luisa; Williams, Joseph; Prince, Martin J

2010-01-01

We evaluated the psychometric properties of the 12-item interviewer-administered screener version of the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule – version II (WHODAS II) among older people living in seven low- and middle-income countries. Principal component analysis (PCA), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and Mokken analyses were carried out to test for unidimensionality, hierarchical structure, and measurement invariance across 10/66 Dementia Research Group sites. PCA generated a one-factor solution in most sites. In CFA, the two-factor solution generated in Dominican Republic fitted better for all sites other than rural China. The two factors were not easily interpretable, and may have been an artefact of differing item difficulties. Strong internal consistency and high factor loadings for the one-factor solution supported unidimensionality. Furthermore, the WHODAS II was found to be a ‘strong’ Mokken scale. Measurement invariance was supported by the similarity of factor loadings across sites, and by the high between-site correlations in item difficulties. The Mokken results strongly support that the WHODAS II 12-item screener is a unidimensional and hierarchical scale confirming to item response theory (IRT) principles, at least at the monotone homogeneity model level. More work is needed to assess the generalizability of our findings to different populations. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:20104493

Optimizing spectral wave estimates with adjoint-based sensitivity maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orzech, Mark; Veeramony, Jay; Flampouris, Stylianos

2014-04-01

A discrete numerical adjoint has recently been developed for the stochastic wave model SWAN. In the present study, this adjoint code is used to construct spectral sensitivity maps for two nearshore domains. The maps display the correlations of spectral energy levels throughout the domain with the observed energy levels at a selected location or region of interest (LOI/ROI), providing a full spectrum of values at all locations in the domain. We investigate the effectiveness of sensitivity maps based on significant wave height ( H s ) in determining alternate offshore instrument deployment sites when a chosen nearshore location or region is inaccessible. Wave and bathymetry datasets are employed from one shallower, small-scale domain (Duck, NC) and one deeper, larger-scale domain (San Diego, CA). The effects of seasonal changes in wave climate, errors in bathymetry, and multiple assimilation points on sensitivity map shapes and model performance are investigated. Model accuracy is evaluated by comparing spectral statistics as well as with an RMS skill score, which estimates a mean model-data error across all spectral bins. Results indicate that data assimilation from identified high-sensitivity alternate locations consistently improves model performance at nearshore LOIs, while assimilation from low-sensitivity locations results in lesser or no improvement. Use of sub-sampled or alongshore-averaged bathymetry has a domain-specific effect on model performance when assimilating from a high-sensitivity alternate location. When multiple alternate assimilation locations are used from areas of lower sensitivity, model performance may be worse than with a single, high-sensitivity assimilation point.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greenberg, Jim; Penuelas, J.; Guenther, Alex B.

To survey landscape-scale fluxes of biogenic gases, a100-meterTeflon tube was attached to a tethered balloon as a sampling inlet for a fast response Proton Transfer Reaction Mass Spectrometer (PTRMS). Along with meteorological instruments deployed on the tethered balloon and at 3-mand outputs from a regional weather model, these observations were used to estimate landscape scale biogenic volatile organic compound fluxes with two micrometeorological techniques: mixed layer variance and surface layer gradients. This highly mobile sampling system was deployed at four field sites near Barcelona to estimate landscape-scale BVOC emission factors in a relatively short period (3 weeks). The two micrometeorologicalmore » techniques agreed within the uncertainty of the flux measurements at all four sites even though the locations had considerable heterogeneity in species distribution and complex terrain. The observed fluxes were significantly different than emissions predicted with an emission model using site-specific emission factors and land-cover characteristics. Considering the wide range in reported BVOC emission factors of VOCs for individual vegetation species (more than an order of magnitude), this flux estimation technique is useful for constraining BVOC emission factors used as model inputs.« less

Scaling up prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission programs in sub-Saharan African countries: a multilevel assessment of site-, program- and country-level determinants of performance.

PubMed

Audureau, Etienne; Kahn, James G; Besson, Marie-Hélène; Saba, Joseph; Ladner, Joël

2013-04-01

Uptake of prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) programs remains challenging in sub-Saharan Africa because of multiple barriers operating at the individual or health facility levels. Less is known regarding the influence of program-level and contextual determinants. In this study, we explored the multilevel factors associated with coverage in single-dose nevirapine PMTCT programs. We analyzed aggregate routine data collected within the framework of the Viramune(®) Donation Programme (VDP) from 269 sites in 20 PMTCT programs and 15 sub-Saharan countries from 2002 to 2005. Site performance was measured using a nevirapine coverage ratio (NCR), defined as the reported number of women receiving nevirapine divided by the number of women who should have received nevirapine (observed HIV prevalence x number of women in antenatal care [ANC]). Data on program-level determinants were drawn from the initial application forms, and country-level determinants from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the World Bank (World Development Indicators). Multilevel linear mixed models were used to identify independent factors associated with NCR at the site-, program- and country-level. Of 283,410 pregnant women attending ANC in the included sites, 174,312 women (61.5%) underwent HIV testing after receiving pre-test counselling, of whom 26,700 tested HIV positive (15.3%), and 22,591 were dispensed NVP (84.6%). Site performance was highly heterogeneous between and within programs. Mean NCR by site was 43.8% (interquartile range: 19.1-63.9). Multilevel analysis identified higher HIV prevalence (Beta coefficient: 25.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 18.7 to 31.6), higher proportion of persons with knowledge of PMTCT (8.3; CI 0.5 to 16.0), higher health expenditure as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (3.9 per %; CI 2.0 to 5.8) and lower percentage of rural population (-0.7 per %; CI -1.0 to -0.5) as significant country-level predictors of higher NCR at the p<0.05 level. A medium ANC monthly activity (30-100/month) was the only site-level predictor found (-7.6; CI -15.1 to -0.1). Heterogeneity of nevirapine coverage between sites and programs was high. Multilevel analysis identified several significant contextual determinants, which may warrant additional research to further define important multi-level and potentially modifiable determinants of performance of PMTCT programs.

Using Kriging with a heterogeneous measurement error to improve the accuracy of extreme precipitation return level estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Shui-qing; Wang, Zhonglei; Zhu, Zhengyuan; Zou, Xu-kai; Wang, Wen-ting

2018-07-01

Extreme precipitation can cause flooding and may result in great economic losses and deaths. The return level is a commonly used measure of extreme precipitation events and is required for hydrological engineer designs, including those of sewerage systems, dams, reservoirs and bridges. In this paper, we propose a two-step method to estimate the return level and its uncertainty for a study region. In the first step, we use the generalized extreme value distribution, the L-moment method and the stationary bootstrap to estimate the return level and its uncertainty at the site with observations. In the second step, a spatial model incorporating the heterogeneous measurement errors and covariates is trained to estimate return levels at sites with no observations and to improve the estimates at sites with limited information. The proposed method is applied to the daily rainfall data from 273 weather stations in the Haihe river basin of North China. We compare the proposed method with two alternatives: the first one is based on the ordinary Kriging method without measurement error, and the second one smooths the estimated location and scale parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution by the universal Kriging method. Results show that the proposed method outperforms its counterparts. We also propose a novel approach to assess the two-step method by comparing it with the at-site estimation method with a series of reduced length of observations. Estimates of the 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-year return level maps and the corresponding uncertainties are provided for the Haihe river basin, and a comparison with those released by the Hydrology Bureau of Ministry of Water Resources of China is made.

Geological Investigation Program for the Site of a New Nuclear Power Plant in Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerstenkorn, András; Trosits, Dalma; Chikán, Géza; János Katona, Tamás

2015-04-01

Comprehensive site evalaution program is implemented for the new Nuclear Power Plant to be constructed at Paks site in Hungary with the aim of confirmation of acceptability of the site and definition of site-related design basis data. Most extensive part of this program is to investigate geological-tectonical features of the site with particular aim on the assessment of the capability of faults at and around the site, characterization of site seismic hazard, and definition of the design basis earthquake. A brief description of the scope and methodology of the geological, seismological, geophysical, geotechnical and hydrogeological investigations will be given on the poster. Main focus of the presentation is to show the graded structure and extent of the geological investigations that follow the needs and scale of the geological modeling, starting with the site and its vicinity, as well as on the near regional and the regional scale. Geological inverstigations includes several boreholes up-to the base-rock, plenty of boreholes discovering the Pannonian and large number of shallow boreholes for investigation of more recent development. The planning of the geological investigations is based on the 3D seismic survey performed around the site, that is complemented by shallow-seimic survey at and in the vicinity of the site. The 3D geophysical imaging provides essential geodynamic information to assess the capability of near site faults and for the seismic hazard analysis, as well as for the hydrogeological modeling. The planned seismic survey gives a unique dataset for understanding the spatial relationship between individual fault segments. Planning of the research (trenching, etc.) for paleoseismic manifestations is also based on the 3D seismic survey. The seismic survey and other geophysical data (including data of space geodesy) allow the amendment of the understanding and the model of the tectonic evolution of the area and geological events. As it is known from earlier studies, seismic sources in the near regional area are the dominating contributors to the site seimic hazard. Therefore a 3D geological model will be developed for the 50 km region around the site in order to consider different geological scenarios. Site-scale investigations are aimed on the characterization of local geotechnical and hydrogeological conditions. The geotechnical investigations provide data for the evaluation of site response, i.e. the free-field ground motion response spectra, assessment of the liquefaction hazard and foundation design. Important element of the hydrogeological survey is numerical groundwater modeling. The aim of hydrogeological modeling is the summary of hydrogeological data in a numeric system, the description, simulation of underground water flow and transport conditions.

Modelling NO2 concentrations at the street level in the GAINS integrated assessment model: projections under current legislation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiesewetter, G.; Borken-Kleefeld, J.; Schöpp, W.; Heyes, C.; Thunis, P.; Bessagnet, B.; Gsella, A.; Amann, M.

2013-08-01

NO2 concentrations at the street level are a major concern for urban air quality in Europe and have been regulated under the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. Despite the legal requirements, limit values are exceeded at many monitoring stations with little or no improvement during recent years. In order to assess the effects of future emission control regulations on roadside NO2 concentrations, a downscaling module has been implemented in the GAINS integrated assessment model. The module follows a hybrid approach based on atmospheric dispersion calculations and observations from the AirBase European air quality data base that are used to estimate site-specific parameters. Pollutant concentrations at every monitoring site with sufficient data coverage are disaggregated into contributions from regional background, urban increment, and local roadside increment. The future evolution of each contribution is assessed with a model of the appropriate scale - 28 × 28 km grid based on the EMEP Model for the regional background, 7 × 7 km urban increment based on the CHIMERE Chemistry Transport Model, and a chemical box model for the roadside increment. Thus, different emission scenarios and control options for long-range transport, regional and local emissions can be analysed. Observed concentrations and historical trends are well captured, in particular the differing NO2 and total NOx = NO + NO2 trends. Altogether, more than 1950 air quality monitoring stations in the EU are covered by the model, including more than 400 traffic stations and 70% of the critical stations. Together with its well-established bottom-up emission and dispersion calculation scheme, GAINS is thus able to bridge the scales from European-wide policies to impacts in street canyons. As an application of the model, we assess the evolution of attainment of NO2 limit values under current legislation until 2030. Strong improvements are expected with the introduction of the Euro 6 emission standard for light duty vehicles; however, for some major European cities, further measures may be required, in particular if aiming to achieve compliance at an earlier time.

Modelling NO2 concentrations at the street level in the GAINS integrated assessment model: projections under current legislation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiesewetter, G.; Borken-Kleefeld, J.; Schöpp, W.; Heyes, C.; Thunis, P.; Bessagnet, B.; Terrenoire, E.; Gsella, A.; Amann, M.

2014-01-01

NO2 concentrations at the street level are a major concern for urban air quality in Europe and have been regulated under the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. Despite the legal requirements, limit values are exceeded at many monitoring stations with little or no improvement in recent years. In order to assess the effects of future emission control regulations on roadside NO2 concentrations, a downscaling module has been implemented in the GAINS integrated assessment model. The module follows a hybrid approach based on atmospheric dispersion calculations and observations from the AirBase European air quality database that are used to estimate site-specific parameters. Pollutant concentrations at every monitoring site with sufficient data coverage are disaggregated into contributions from regional background, urban increment, and local roadside increment. The future evolution of each contribution is assessed with a model of the appropriate scale: 28 × 28 km grid based on the EMEP Model for the regional background, 7 × 7 km urban increment based on the CHIMERE Chemistry Transport Model, and a chemical box model for the roadside increment. Thus, different emission scenarios and control options for long-range transport as well as regional and local emissions can be analysed. Observed concentrations and historical trends are well captured, in particular the differing NO2 and total NOx = NO + NO2 trends. Altogether, more than 1950 air quality monitoring stations in the EU are covered by the model, including more than 400 traffic stations and 70% of the critical stations. Together with its well-established bottom-up emission and dispersion calculation scheme, GAINS is thus able to bridge the scales from European-wide policies to impacts in street canyons. As an application of the model, we assess the evolution of attainment of NO2 limit values under current legislation until 2030. Strong improvements are expected with the introduction of the Euro 6 emission standard for light duty vehicles; however, for some major European cities, further measures may be required, in particular if aiming to achieve compliance at an earlier time.

JPL's GNSS Real-Time Earthquake and Tsunami (GREAT) Alert System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bar-Sever, Yoaz; Miller, Mark; Vallisneri, Michele; Khachikyan, Robert; Meyer, Robert

2017-04-01

We describe recent developments to the GREAT Alert natural hazard monitoring service from JPL's Global Differential GPS (GDGPS) System. GREAT Alert provides real-time, 1 Hz positioning solutions for hundreds of GNSS tracking sites, from both global and regional networks, aiming to monitor ground motion in the immediate aftermath of earthquakes. We take advantage of the centralized data processing, which is collocated with the GNSS orbit determination operations of the GDGPS System, to combine orbit determination with large-scale point-positioning in a grand estimation scheme, and as a result realize significant improvement to the positioning accuracy compared to conventional stand-alone point positioning techniques. For example, the measured median site (over all sites) real-time horizontal positioning accuracy is 2 cm 1DRMS, and the median real-time vertical accuracy is 4 cm RMS. The GREAT Alert positioning service is integrated with automated global earthquake notices from the United States Geodetic Survey (USGS) to support near-real-time calculations of co-seismic displacements with attendant formal errors based both short-term and long-term error analysis for each individual site. We will show the millimeter-level resolution of co-seismic displacement can be achieved by this system. The co-seismic displacements, in turn, are fed into a JPL geodynamics and ocean models, that estimate the Earthquake magnitude and predict the potential tsunami scale.

Development of small scale cell culture models for screening poloxamer 188 lot-to-lot variation.

PubMed

Peng, Haofan; Hall, Kaitlyn M; Clayton, Blake; Wiltberger, Kelly; Hu, Weiwei; Hughes, Erik; Kane, John; Ney, Rachel; Ryll, Thomas

2014-01-01

Shear protectants such as poloxamer 188 play a critical role in protecting cells during cell culture bioprocessing. Lot-to-lot variation of poloxamer 188 was experienced during a routine technology transfer across sites of similar scale and equipment. Cell culture medium containing a specific poloxamer 188 lot resulted in an unusual drop in cell growth, viability, and titer during manufacturing runs. After switching poloxamer lots, culture performance returned to the expected level. In order to control the quality of poloxamer 188 and thus maintain better consistency in manufacturing, multiple small scale screening models were developed. Initially, a 5L bioreactor model was established to evaluate cell damage by high sparge rates with different poloxamer 188 lots. Subsequently, a more robust, simple, and efficient baffled shake flask model was developed. The baffled shake flask model can be performed in a high throughput manner to investigate the cell damage in a bubbling environment. The main cause of the poor performance was the loss of protection, rather than toxicity. It was also suggested that suspicious lots can be identified using different cell line and media. The screening methods provide easy, yet remarkable models for understanding and controlling cell damage due to raw material lot variation as well as studying the interaction between poloxamer 188 and cells. © 2014 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Spatial heterogeneity in parasite infections at different spatial scales in an intertidal bivalve.

PubMed

Thieltges, David W; Reise, Karsten

2007-01-01

Spatial heterogeneities in the abundance of free-living organisms as well as in infection levels of their parasites are a common phenomenon, but knowledge on parasitism in invertebrate intermediate hosts in this respect is scarce. We investigated the spatial pattern of four dominant trematode species which utilize a common intertidal bivalve, the cockle Cerastoderma edule, as second intermediate host in their life cycles. Sampling of cockles from the same cohort at 15 sites in the northern Wadden Sea (North Sea) over a distance of 50 km revealed a conspicuous spatial heterogeneity in infection levels in all four species over the total sample as well as among and within sampling sites. Whereas multiple regression analyses indicated the density of first intermediate upstream hosts to be the strongest determinant of infection levels in cockles, the situation within sites was more complex with no single strong predictor variable. However, host size was positively and host density negatively correlated with infection levels and there was an indication of differential susceptibility of cockle hosts. Small-scale differences in physical properties of the habitat in the form of residual water at low tide resulted in increased infection levels of cockles which we experimentally transferred into pools. A complex interplay of these factors may be responsible for within-site heterogeneities. At larger spatial scales, these factors may be overridden by the strong effect of upstream hosts. In contrast to first intermediate trematode hosts, there was no indication for inter-specific interactions. In other terms, the recruitment of trematodes in second intermediate hosts seems to be largely controlled by pre-settlement processes both among and within host populations.

Modeling of thin film GaAs growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heinbockel, J. H.

1982-01-01

A potential scaling Monte Carlo model of crystal growth is developed. The model is a modification of the solid-on-solid method for studying crystal growth in that potentials at surface sites are continuously updated on a time scale reflecting the surface events of migration, incorporation and evaporation. The model allows for B on A type of crystal growth and lattice disregistry by the assignment of potential values at various surface sites. The surface adatoms are periodically assigned a random energy from a Boltzmann distribution and this energy determines whether the adatoms evaporate, migrate or remain stationary during the sampling interval. For each addition or migration of an adatom, the surface potentials are adjusted to reflect the adsorption, migration or desorption potential changes.

State Enabling Legislation for Commercial-Scale Wind Power Siting and the Local Government Role

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McElfish, J.M.; Gersen, S.

Siting of commercial-scale wind facilities (>5MW) is determined primarily by state laws. State laws either leave siting regulation to local governments, prescribe and constrain the role for local governments, establish state standards, or preempt local governance by having state institutions govern siting. Siting regulation is extremely important to the advancement of wind generation in the United States. Major siting decisions lie ahead for state and local governments as the nation diversifies its energy portfolio. An increase in the number of new wind facilities, siting in more locations and in more heavily populated areas, will require attention to the laws andmore » regulations that govern siting. Local governments exercise some authority over commercial-scale wind facility siting in 48 of the 50 states. In 34 states, local governments have substantial autonomy to regulate the siting of most or all commercial-scale wind facilities. A few states authorize local governments to regulate wind facility siting, but make the scope of local regulation subject to limitations defined by state law. Eleven states set size thresholds for state regulatory involvement with local governments in these states regulating smaller facilities and state boards regulating larger ones (either exclusively or concurrently with local governments). In just under a third of the states, siting of most or all commercial-scale wind facilities requires approval by both state and local government bodies. Only a few states reserve the regulation of siting of all or virtually all commercial-scale wind facilities to state boards and commissions. The content of the applicable regulations is more important, in general, than the level of government responsible for the decision. Several states that assign siting responsibilities to local governments have specified some of the content and the limits of local regulation. About 1/5 of the states have directed boards and commissions to develop statewide regulations to deal with wind facility siting issues subject to state approval. These requirements most often specify standards for setbacks, wildlife, noise, decommissioning, and other issues.« less

U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY'S SITE EMERGING TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM: 1991 UPDATE

EPA Science Inventory

The Emerging Technology Program (ETP) supports the development of technologies successfully tested at the bench- and pilot-scale level. The ETP is part of the Superfund Innovative Technology Evaluation (SITE) Program which was established in 1986 under the Superfund Amendments an...

Shallow Cumulus Variability at the ARM Eastern North Atlantic Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamer, K.; Kollias, P.; Ghate, V. P.; Luke, E. P.

2016-12-01

Cumulus clouds play a critical role in modulating the radiative and hydrological budget of the lower troposphere. These clouds, which are ubiquitous in regions of large-scale subsidence over the oceans, tend to be misrepresented in global climate models. Island-based, long-term, high-resolution ground-based observations can provide valuable insights on the factors controlling their macroscopic and microphysical properties and subsequenlty assist in model evaluation and guidance. Previous studies, limited to fair-weather cumuli over land, revealed that their fractional coverage is only weakly correlated with several parameters; the best ones being complex dynamical characteristics of the subcloud layer (vertical velocity skewness and eddy coherence). Other studies noted a relationship between cumuli depth and their propensity to precipitate. The current study will expand on such analysis by performing detail characterization of the full spectrum of shallow cumulus fields from non-precipitating to precipitating in the context of the large-scale forcing (i.e. thermodynamic structure and subsidence rates). Two years of ground-based remote sensing observations collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site are used to document macroscopic (cloud depth, cord length, cover), microphysical (liquid water path, cloud base rain rate) and dynamical (cloud base mass flux, eddy dissipation rate) cumuli properties. The observed variability in shallow cumulus is examined in relation to the variability of the large-scale environment as captured by the humidity profile, the magnitude of the low-level horizontal winds and near-surface aerosol conditions.

Avian movements and wetland connectivity in landscape conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haig, Susan M.; Mehlman, D.W.; Oring, L.W.

1998-01-01

The current conservation crisis calls for research and management to be carried out on a long-term, multi-species basis at large spatial scales. Unfortunately, scientists, managers, and agencies often are stymied in their effort to conduct these large-scale studies because of a lack of appropriate technology, methodology, and funding. This issue is of particular concern in wetland conservation, for which the standard landscape approach may include consideration of a large tract of land but fail to incorporate the suite of wetland sites frequently used by highly mobile organisms such as waterbirds (e.g., shorebirds, wading birds, waterfowl). Typically, these species have population dynamics that require use of multiple wetlands, but this aspect of their life history has often been ignored in planning for their conservation. We outline theoretical, empirical, modeling, and planning problems associated with this issue and suggest solutions to some current obstacles. These solutions represent a tradeoff between typical in-depth single-species studies and more generic multi-species studies. They include studying within- and among-season movements of waterbirds on a spatial scale appropriate to both widely dispersing and more stationary species; multi-species censuses at multiple sites; further development and use of technology such as satellite transmitters and population-specific molecular markers; development of spatially explicit population models that consider within-season movements of waterbirds; and recognition from funding agencies that landscape-level issues cannot adequately be addressed without support for these types of studies.

A Restoration Suitability Index Model for the Eastern Oyster (Crassostrea virginica) in the Mission-Aransas Estuary, TX, USA

PubMed Central

Beseres Pollack, Jennifer; Cleveland, Andrew; Palmer, Terence A.; Reisinger, Anthony S.; Montagna, Paul A.

2012-01-01

Oyster reefs are one of the most threatened marine habitats on earth, with habitat loss resulting from water quality degradation, coastal development, destructive fishing practices, overfishing, and storm impacts. For successful and sustainable oyster reef restoration efforts, it is necessary to choose sites that support long-term growth and survival of oysters. Selection of suitable sites is critically important as it can greatly influence mortality factors and may largely determine the ultimate success of the restoration project. The application of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provides an effective methodology for identifying suitable sites for oyster reef restoration and removes much of the uncertainty involved in the sometimes trial and error selection process. This approach also provides an objective and quantitative tool for planning future oyster reef restoration efforts. The aim of this study was to develop a restoration suitability index model and reef quality index model to characterize locations based on their potential for successful reef restoration within the Mission-Aransas Estuary, Texas, USA. The restoration suitability index model focuses on salinity, temperature, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, and depth, while the reef quality index model focuses on abundance of live oysters, dead shell, and spat. Size-specific Perkinsus marinus infection levels were mapped to illustrate general disease trends. This application was effective in identifying suitable sites for oyster reef restoration, is flexible in its use, and provides a mechanism for considering alternative approaches. The end product is a practical decision-support tool that can be used by coastal resource managers to improve oyster restoration efforts. As oyster reef restoration activities continue at small and large-scales, site selection criteria are critical for assisting stakeholders and managers and for maximizing long-term sustainability of oyster resources. PMID:22792410

Surface wind mixing in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, Robin; Hartlipp, Paul

2017-12-01

Mixing at the ocean surface is key for atmosphere-ocean interactions and the distribution of heat, energy, and gases in the upper ocean. Winds are the primary force for surface mixing. To properly simulate upper ocean dynamics and the flux of these quantities within the upper ocean, models must reproduce mixing in the upper ocean. To evaluate the performance of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) in replicating the surface mixing, the results of four different vertical mixing parameterizations were compared against observations, using the surface mixed layer depth, the temperature fields, and observed diffusivities for comparisons. The vertical mixing parameterizations investigated were Mellor- Yamada 2.5 level turbulent closure (MY), Large- McWilliams- Doney Kpp (LMD), Nakanishi- Niino (NN), and the generic length scale (GLS) schemes. This was done for one temperate site in deep water in the Eastern Pacific and three shallow water sites in the Baltic Sea. The model reproduced the surface mixed layer depth reasonably well for all sites; however, the temperature fields were reproduced well for the deep site, but not for the shallow Baltic Sea sites. In the Baltic Sea, the models overmixed the water column after a few days. Vertical temperature diffusivities were higher than those observed and did not show the temporal fluctuations present in the observations. The best performance was by NN and MY; however, MY became unstable in two of the shallow simulations with high winds. The performance of GLS nearly as good as NN and MY. LMD had the poorest performance as it generated temperature diffusivities that were too high and induced too much mixing. Further observational comparisons are needed to evaluate the effects of different stratification and wind conditions and the limitations on the vertical mixing parameterizations.

The TERRA-PNW Dataset: A New Source for Standardized Plant Trait, Forest Carbon Cycling, and Soil Properties Measurements from the Pacific Northwest US, 2000-2014.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, L. T.; Law, B. E.

2015-12-01

Plant traits include physiological, morphological, and biogeochemical characteristics that in combination determine a species sensitivity to environmental conditions. Standardized, co-located, and geo-referenced species- and plot-level measurements are needed to address variation in species sensitivity to climate change impacts and for ecosystem process model development, parameterization and testing. We present a new database of plant trait, forest carbon cycling, and soil property measurements derived from multiple TERRA-PNW projects in the Pacific Northwest US, spanning 2000-2014. The database includes measurements from over 200 forest plots across Oregon and northern California, where the data were explicitly collected for scaling and modeling regional terrestrial carbon processes with models such as Biome-BGC and the Community Land Model. Some of the data are co-located at AmeriFlux sites in the region. The database currently contains leaf trait measurements (specific leaf area, leaf longevity, leaf carbon and nitrogen) from over 1,200 branch samples and 30 species, as well as plot-level biomass and productivity components, and soil carbon and nitrogen. Standardized protocols were used across projects, as summarized in an FAO protocols document. The database continues to expand and will include agricultural crops. The database will be hosted by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORLN) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). We hope that other regional databases will become publicly available to help enable Earth System Modeling to simulate species-level sensitivity to climate at regional to global scales.

A Unified Multi-scale Model for Cross-Scale Evaluation and Integration of Hydrological and Biogeochemical Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, C.; Yang, X.; Bailey, V. L.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Hinkle, C.

2013-12-01

Mathematical representations of hydrological and biogeochemical processes in soil, plant, aquatic, and atmospheric systems vary with scale. Process-rich models are typically used to describe hydrological and biogeochemical processes at the pore and small scales, while empirical, correlation approaches are often used at the watershed and regional scales. A major challenge for multi-scale modeling is that water flow, biogeochemical processes, and reactive transport are described using different physical laws and/or expressions at the different scales. For example, the flow is governed by the Navier-Stokes equations at the pore-scale in soils, by the Darcy law in soil columns and aquifer, and by the Navier-Stokes equations again in open water bodies (ponds, lake, river) and atmosphere surface layer. This research explores whether the physical laws at the different scales and in different physical domains can be unified to form a unified multi-scale model (UMSM) to systematically investigate the cross-scale, cross-domain behavior of fundamental processes at different scales. This presentation will discuss our research on the concept, mathematical equations, and numerical execution of the UMSM. Three-dimensional, multi-scale hydrological processes at the Disney Wilderness Preservation (DWP) site, Florida will be used as an example for demonstrating the application of the UMSM. In this research, the UMSM was used to simulate hydrological processes in rooting zones at the pore and small scales including water migration in soils under saturated and unsaturated conditions, root-induced hydrological redistribution, and role of rooting zone biogeochemical properties (e.g., root exudates and microbial mucilage) on water storage and wetting/draining. The small scale simulation results were used to estimate effective water retention properties in soil columns that were superimposed on the bulk soil water retention properties at the DWP site. The UMSM parameterized from smaller scale simulations were then used to simulate coupled flow and moisture migration in soils in saturated and unsaturated zones, surface and groundwater exchange, and surface water flow in streams and lakes at the DWP site under dynamic precipitation conditions. Laboratory measurements of soil hydrological and biogeochemical properties are used to parameterize the UMSM at the small scales, and field measurements are used to evaluate the UMSM.

Nest survival modelling using a multi-species approach in forests managed for timber and biofuel feedstock

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loman, Zachary G.; Monroe, Adrian; Riffell, Samuel K.; Miller, Darren A.; Vilella, Francisco; Wheat, Bradley R.; Rush, Scott A.; Martin, James A.

2018-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) intercropping is a novel forest management practice for biomass production intended to generate cellulosic feedstocks within intensively managed loblolly pine‐dominated landscapes. These pine plantations are important for early‐successional bird species, as short rotation times continually maintain early‐successional habitat. We tested the efficacy of using community models compared to individual surrogate species models in understanding influences on nest survival. We analysed nest data to test for differences in habitat use for 14 bird species in plots managed for switchgrass intercropping and controls within loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantations in Mississippi, USA.We adapted hierarchical models using hyper‐parameters to incorporate information from both common and rare species to understand community‐level nest survival. This approach incorporates rare species that are often discarded due to low sample sizes, but can inform community‐level demographic parameter estimates. We illustrate use of this approach in generating both species‐level and community‐wide estimates of daily survival rates for songbird nests. We were able to include rare species with low sample size (minimum n = 5) to inform a hyper‐prior, allowing us to estimate effects of covariates on daily survival at the community level, then compare this with a single‐species approach using surrogate species. Using single‐species models, we were unable to generate estimates below a sample size of 21 nests per species.Community model species‐level survival and parameter estimates were similar to those generated by five single‐species models, with improved precision in community model parameters.Covariates of nest placement indicated that switchgrass at the nest site (<4 m) reduced daily nest survival, although intercropping at the forest stand level increased daily nest survival.Synthesis and applications. Community models represent a viable method for estimating community nest survival rates and effects of covariates while incorporating limited data for rarely detected species. Intercropping switchgrass in loblolly pine plantations slightly increased daily nest survival at the research plot scale (0.1 km2), although at a local scale (50 m2) switchgrass negatively influenced nest survival. A likely explanation is intercropping shifted community composition, favouring species with greater disturbance tolerance.

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display at GSFC

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-02-26

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display. A full-scale model of the James Webb Space Telescope was built by the prime contractor, Northrop Grumman, to provide a better understanding of the size, scale and complexity of this satellite. The model is constructed mainly of aluminum and steel, weighs 12,000 lb., and is approximately 80 feet long, 40 feet wide and 40 feet tall. The model requires 2 trucks to ship it and assembly takes a crew of 12 approximately four days. This model has travelled to a few sites since 2005. The photographs below were taken at some of its destinations. The model is pictured here in Greenbelt, MD at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/Pat Izzo

A landscape-scale assessment of plant communities, hydrologic processes, and state-and-transition theory in a western juniper dominated ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, Steven L.

Western juniper has rapidly expanded into sagebrush steppe communities in the Intermountain West during the past 120 years. This expansion has occurred across a wide range of soil types and topographic positions. These plant communities, however, are typically treated in current peer-reviewed literature generically. The focus of this research is to investigate watershed level response to Western juniper encroachment at multiple topographic positions. Data collected from plots used to measure vegetation, soil moisture, and infiltration rates show that intercanopy sites within encroached Western juniper communities generally exhibit a significant decrease in intercanopy plant density and cover, decreased infiltration rates, increased water sediment content, and lower soil moisture content. High-resolution remotely sensed imagery and Geographic Information Systems were used with these plot level measurements to characterize and model the landscape-scale response for both biotic and abiotic components of a Western juniper encroached ecosystem. These data and their analyses included an inventory of plant density, plant cover, bare ground, gap distance and cover, a plant community classification of intercanopy patches and juniper canopy cover, soil moisture estimation, solar insulation prediction, slope and aspect. From these data, models were built that accurately predicted shrub density and shrub cover throughout the watershed study area, differentiated by aspect. We propose a new model of process-based plant community dynamics associated with current state-and-transition theory. This model is developed from field measurements and spatially explicit information that characterize the relationship between the matrix mountain big sagebrush plant community and intercanopy plant community patterns occurring within a Western juniper dominated woodland at a landscape scale. Model parameters (states, transitions, and thresholds) are developed based on differences in shrub density and cover, steady-state infiltration rates, water sediment content, and percent bare ground in response to juniper competition and topographic position. Results from both analysis of variance and multivariate hierarchical cluster analysis indicate that states, transitions, and thresholds can be accurately predicted for intercanopy areas occurring within the study area. In theory, this model and the GIS-based layers produced from this research can be used together to predict states, transitions, and thresholds for any location within the extent of the study area. This is a valuable tool for assessing sites at risk and those that have exceeded the ability to self-repair.

Constructing Optimal Coarse-Grained Sites of Huge Biomolecules by Fluctuation Maximization.

PubMed

Li, Min; Zhang, John Zenghui; Xia, Fei

2016-04-12

Coarse-grained (CG) models are valuable tools for the study of functions of large biomolecules on large length and time scales. The definition of CG representations for huge biomolecules is always a formidable challenge. In this work, we propose a new method called fluctuation maximization coarse-graining (FM-CG) to construct the CG sites of biomolecules. The defined residual in FM-CG converges to a maximal value as the number of CG sites increases, allowing an optimal CG model to be rigorously defined on the basis of the maximum. More importantly, we developed a robust algorithm called stepwise local iterative optimization (SLIO) to accelerate the process of coarse-graining large biomolecules. By means of the efficient SLIO algorithm, the computational cost of coarse-graining large biomolecules is reduced to within the time scale of seconds, which is far lower than that of conventional simulated annealing. The coarse-graining of two huge systems, chaperonin GroEL and lengsin, indicates that our new methods can coarse-grain huge biomolecular systems with up to 10,000 residues within the time scale of minutes. The further parametrization of CG sites derived from FM-CG allows us to construct the corresponding CG models for studies of the functions of huge biomolecular systems.

Comparison of three GIS-based models for predicting rockfall runout zones at a regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorren, Luuk K. A.; Seijmonsbergen, Arie C.

2003-11-01

Site-specific information about the level of protection that mountain forests provide is often not available for large regions. Information regarding rockfalls is especially scarce. The most efficient way to obtain information about rockfall activity and the efficacy of protection forests at a regional scale is to use a simulation model. At present, it is still unknown which forest parameters could be incorporated best in such models. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to test and evaluate a model for rockfall assessment at a regional scale in which simple forest stand parameters, such as the number of trees per hectare and the diameter at breast height, are incorporated. Therefore, a newly developed Geographical Information System (GIS)-based distributed model is compared with two existing rockfall models. The developed model is the only model that calculates the rockfall velocity on the basis of energy loss due to collisions with trees and on the soil surface. The two existing models calculate energy loss over the distance between two cell centres, while the newly developed model is able to calculate multiple bounces within a pixel. The patterns of rockfall runout zones produced by the three models are compared with patterns of rockfall deposits derived from geomorphological field maps. Furthermore, the rockfall velocities modelled by the three models are compared. It is found that the models produced rockfall runout zone maps with rather similar accuracies. However, the developed model performs best on forested hillslopes and it also produces velocities that match best with field estimates on both forested and nonforested hillslopes irrespective of the slope gradient.

A 1-D mechanistic model for the evolution of earthflow-prone hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, Adam M.; Roering, Josh J.

2011-12-01

In mountainous terrain, deep-seated landslides transport large volumes of material on hillslopes, exerting a dominant control on erosion rates and landscape form. Here, we develop a mathematical landscape evolution model to explore interactions between deep-seated earthflows, soil creep, and gully processes at the drainage basin scale over geomorphically relevant (>103 year) timescales. In the model, sediment flux or incision laws for these three geomorphic processes combine to determine the morphology of actively uplifting and eroding steady state topographic profiles. We apply the model to three sites, one in the Gabilan Mesa, California, with no earthflow activity, and two along the Eel River, California, with different lithologies and varying levels of historic earthflow activity. Representative topographic profiles from these sites are consistent with model predictions in which the magnitude of a dimensionless earthflow number, based on a non-Newtonian flow rheology, reflects the magnitude of recent earthflow activity on the different hillslopes. The model accurately predicts the behavior of earthflow collection and transport zones observed in the field and estimates long-term average sediment fluxes that are due to earthflows, in agreement with historical rates at our field sites. Finally, our model predicts that steady state hillslope relief in earthflow-prone terrain increases nonlinearly with the tectonic uplift rate, suggesting that the mean hillslope angle may record uplift rate in earthflow-prone landscapes even at high uplift rates, where threshold slope processes normally limit further topographic development.

Persistence of Rift Valley fever virus in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gachohi, J.; Hansen, F.; Bett, B.; Kitala, P.

2012-04-01

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFv) is a mosquito-borne pathogen of livestock, wildlife and humans that causes severe outbreaks in intervals of several years. One of the open questions is how the virus persists between outbreaks. We developed a spatially-explicit, individual-based simulation model of the RVFv transmission dynamics to investigate this question. The model, is based on livestock and mosquito population dynamics. Spatial aspects are explicitly represented by a set of grid cells that represent mosquito breeding sites. A grid cell measures 500 by 500m and the model considers a grid of 100 by 100 grid cells; the model thus operates on the regional scale of 2500km2. Livestock herds move between grid cells, and provide connectivity between the cells. The model is used to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of RVFv persistence in absence of a wildlife reservoir in an east African semi-arid context. Specifically, the model assesses the importance of local virus persistence in mosquito breeding sites relative to global virus persistence mitigated by movement of hosts. Local persistence is determined by the length of time the virus remains in a mosquito breeding site once introduced. In the model, this is a function of the number of mosquitoes that emerge infected and their lifespan. Global persistence is determined by the level of connectivity between isolated grid cells. Our work gives insights into the ecological and epidemiological conditions under which RVFv persists. The implication for disease surveillance and management are discussed.

A Methodology for Confirmatory Testing of Numerical Models of Groundwater Flow and Solute Transport in Fractured Crystalline Rock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartley, L.; Follin, S.; Rhen, I.; Selroos, J.

2008-12-01

Three-dimensional, regional, numerical models of groundwater flow and solute transport in fractured crystalline rock are used for two sites in Sweden that are considered for geological disposal of spent nuclear fuel. The models are used to underpin the conceptual modeling that is based on multi-disciplinary data and include descriptions of the geometry of geological features (deformation zones and fracture networks), transient hydrological and chemical boundary conditions, strong spatial heterogeneity in the hydraulic properties, density driven flow, solute transport including rock matrix diffusion, and mixing of different water types in a palaeo-hydrogeological perspective (last 10,000 years). From a credibility point of view, comparisons between measured and simulated data are important and provide a means to address our ability to understand complex hydrogeological systems, and hence what particular applications of a hydrogeological model of a physical system that are justified, e.g. in subsequent repository performance assessment studies. For instance, it has been suggested that an understanding of the hydrochemical evolution throughout geological time is a powerful tool to predict the future evolution of groundwater flow and its chemical composition. The general approach applied in the numerical modeling was to first parameterize the deformation zones and fracture networks hydraulically using fracture and inflow data from single-hole tests. Second, the confirmatory step relies on using essentially the same groundwater flow and solute transport model in terms of grid discretization and parameter settings for matching three types of independent field data: 1) large-scale cross-hole (interference) tests, 2) long-term monitoring of groundwater levels, and 3) hydrochemical composition of fracture water and matrix pore water in deep boreholes. We demonstrate here the modelling approach of the second step - confirmatory testing - using data from the site investigations undertaken at one of the sites in Sweden (Forsmark). Using the three types of data, a unified conceptual description of the groundwater system has been obtained. The integration of multi-disciplinary data and models in the confirmatory testing has provided a means to increase the level of confidence in the final site descriptive model. Specifically, discipline-specific data and models from hydrogeology (transmissivities, groundwater levels, hydraulic gradients), geology (genesis of structures, geometries), rock mechanics (principal stresses), hydrogeochemistry (fracture water and matrix pore water composition) and bedrock transport properties (flow wetted surface, advective residence time) have been utilized in the description of the groundwater system in the bedrock.

Financial Management of a Large Multi-site Randomized Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Sheffet, Alice J.; Flaxman, Linda; Tom, MeeLee; Hughes, Susan E.; Longbottom, Mary E.; Howard, Virginia J.; Marler, John R.; Brott, Thomas G.

2014-01-01

Background The Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy versus Stenting Trial (CREST) received five years’ funding ($21,112,866) from the National Institutes of Health to compare carotid stenting to surgery for stroke prevention in 2,500 randomized participants at 40 sites. Aims Herein we evaluate the change in the CREST budget from a fixed to variable-cost model and recommend strategies for the financial management of large-scale clinical trials. Methods Projections of the original grant’s fixed-cost model were compared to the actual costs of the revised variable-cost model. The original grant’s fixed-cost budget included salaries, fringe benefits, and other direct and indirect costs. For the variable-cost model, the costs were actual payments to the clinical sites and core centers based upon actual trial enrollment. We compared annual direct and indirect costs and per-patient cost for both the fixed and variable models. Differences between clinical site and core center expenditures were also calculated. Results Using a variable-cost budget for clinical sites, funding was extended by no-cost extension from five to eight years. Randomizing sites tripled from 34 to 109. Of the 2,500 targeted sample size, 138 (5.5%) were randomized during the first five years and 1,387 (55.5%) during the no-cost extension. The actual per-patient costs of the variable model were 9% ($13,845) of the projected per-patient costs ($152,992) of the fixed model. Conclusions Performance-based budgets conserve funding, promote compliance, and allow for additional sites at modest additional cost. Costs of large-scale clinical trials can thus be reduced through effective management without compromising scientific integrity. PMID:24661748

Improving safety climate through a communication and recognition program for construction: a mixed-methods study

PubMed Central

Sparer, Emily H; Catalano, Paul J; Herrick, Robert F; Dennerlein, Jack T

2016-01-01

Objectives This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of a safety communication and recognition program (B-SAFE), designed to encourage improvement of physical working conditions and hazard reduction in construction. Methods A matched pair cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted on eight worksites (four received the B-SAFE intervention, four served as control sites) for approximately five months per site. Pre- and post-exposure worker surveys were collected at all sites (N=615, pre-exposure response rate of 74%, post-exposure response rate of 88%). Multi-level mixed-effect regression models evaluated the effect of B-SAFE on safety climate as assessed from surveys. Focus groups (N=6–8 workers/site) were conducted following data collection. Transcripts were coded and analyzed for thematic content using Atlas.ti (version 6). Results The mean safety climate score at intervention sites, as measured on a 0–50 point scale, increased 0.5 points (1%) between pre- and post-B-SAFE exposure, compared to control sites that decreased 0.8 points (1.6%). The intervention effect size was 1.64 (3.28%) (P-value=0.01) when adjusted for month the worker started on-site, total length of time on-site, as well as individual characteristics (trade, title, age, and race/ethnicity). At intervention sites, workers noted increased levels of safety awareness, communication, and teamwork compared to control sites. Conclusions B-SAFE led to many positive changes, including an improvement in safety climate, awareness, teambuilding, and communication. B-SAFE was a simple intervention that engaged workers through effective communication infrastructures and had a significant, positive effect on worksite safety. PMID:27158914

Seismic modeling of multidimensional heterogeneity scales of Mallik gas hydrate reservoirs, Northwest Territories of Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jun-Wei; Bellefleur, Gilles; Milkereit, Bernd

2009-07-01

In hydrate-bearing sediments, the velocity and attenuation of compressional and shear waves depend primarily on the spatial distribution of hydrates in the pore space of the subsurface lithologies. Recent characterizations of gas hydrate accumulations based on seismic velocity and attenuation generally assume homogeneous sedimentary layers and neglect effects from large- and small-scale heterogeneities of hydrate-bearing sediments. We present an algorithm, based on stochastic medium theory, to construct heterogeneous multivariable models that mimic heterogeneities of hydrate-bearing sediments at the level of detail provided by borehole logging data. Using this algorithm, we model some key petrophysical properties of gas hydrates within heterogeneous sediments near the Mallik well site, Northwest Territories, Canada. The modeled density, and P and S wave velocities used in combination with a modified Biot-Gassmann theory provide a first-order estimate of the in situ volume of gas hydrate near the Mallik 5L-38 borehole. Our results suggest a range of 528 to 768 × 106 m3/km2 of natural gas trapped within hydrates, nearly an order of magnitude lower than earlier estimates which did not include effects of small-scale heterogeneities. Further, the petrophysical models are combined with a 3-D finite difference modeling algorithm to study seismic attenuation due to scattering and leaky mode propagation. Simulations of a near-offset vertical seismic profile and cross-borehole numerical surveys demonstrate that attenuation of seismic energy may not be directly related to the intrinsic attenuation of hydrate-bearing sediments but, instead, may be largely attributed to scattering from small-scale heterogeneities and highly attenuate leaky mode propagation of seismic waves through larger-scale heterogeneities in sediments.

Detection of forest stand-level spatial structure in ectomycorrhizal fungal communities.

PubMed

Lilleskov, Erik A; Bruns, Thomas D; Horton, Thomas R; Taylor, D; Grogan, Paul

2004-08-01

Ectomycorrhizal fungal (EMF) communities are highly diverse at the stand level. To begin to understand what might lead to such diversity, and to improve sampling designs, we investigated the spatial structure of these communities. We used EMF community data from a number of studies carried out in seven mature and one recently fire-initiated forest stand. We applied various measures of spatial pattern to characterize distributions at EMF community and species levels: Mantel tests, Mantel correlograms, variance/mean and standardized variograms. Mantel tests indicated that in four of eight sites community similarity decreased with distance, whereas Mantel correlograms also found spatial autocorrelation in those four plus two additional sites. In all but one of these sites elevated similarity was evident only at relatively small spatial scales (< 2.6 m), whereas one exhibited a larger scale pattern ( approximately 25 m). Evenness of biomass distribution among cores varied widely among taxa. Standardized variograms indicated that most of the dominant taxa showed patchiness at a scale of less than 3 m, with a range from 0 to < or =17 m. These results have implications for both sampling scale and intensity to achieve maximum efficiency of community sampling. In the systems we examined, cores should be at least 3 m apart to achieve the greatest sampling efficiency for stand-level community analysis. In some cases even this spacing may result in reduced sampling efficiency arising from patterns of spatial autocorrelation. Interpretation of the causes and significance of these patterns requires information on the genetic identity of individuals in the communities.

Radiocesium interaction with clay minerals: Theory and simulation advances Post-Fukushima.

PubMed

Okumura, Masahiko; Kerisit, Sebastien; Bourg, Ian C; Lammers, Laura N; Ikeda, Takashi; Sassi, Michel; Rosso, Kevin M; Machida, Masahiko

2018-04-14

Insights at the microscopic level of the process of radiocesium adsorption and interaction with clay mineral particles have improved substantially over the past several years, triggered by pressing social issues such as management of huge amounts of waste soil accumulated after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident. In particular, computer-based molecular modeling supported by advanced hardware and algorithms has proven to be a powerful approach. Its application can now generally encompass the full complexity of clay particle adsorption sites from basal surfaces to interlayers with inserted water molecules, to edges including fresh and weathered frayed ones. On the other hand, its methodological schemes are now varied from traditional force-field molecular dynamics on large-scale realizations composed of many thousands of atoms including water molecules to first-principles methods on smaller models in rather exacting fashion. In this article, we overview new understanding enabled by simulations across methodological variations, focusing on recent insights that connect with experimental observations, namely: 1) the energy scale for cesium adsorption on the basal surface, 2) progress in understanding the structure of clay edges, which is difficult to probe experimentally, 3) cesium adsorption properties at hydrated interlayer sites, 4) the importance of the size relationship between the ionic radius of cesium and the interlayer distance at frayed edge sites, 5) the migration of cesium into deep interlayer sites, and 6) the effects of nuclear decay of radiocesium. Key experimental observations that motivate these simulation advances are also summarized. Furthermore, some directions toward future solutions of waste soil management are discussed based on the obtained microscopic insights. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Radiocesium interaction with clay minerals: Theory and simulation advances Post–Fukushima

DOE PAGES

Okumura, Masahiko; Kerisit, Sebastien; Bourg, Ian C.; ...

2018-03-14

Insights at the microscopic level of the process of radiocesium adsorption and interaction with clay mineral particles have improved substantially over the past several years, triggered by pressing social issues such as management of huge amounts of waste soil accumulated after the Fukushima Dai–ichi nuclear power plant accident. In particular, computer–based molecular modeling supported by advanced hardware and algorithms has proven to be a powerful approach. Its application can now generally encompass the full complexity of clay particle adsorption sites from basal surfaces to interlayers with inserted water molecules, to edges including fresh and weathered frayed ones. On the othermore » hand, its methodological schemes are now varied from traditional force–field molecular dynamics on large–scale realizations composed of many thousands of atoms including water molecules to first–principles methods on smaller models in rather exacting fashion. In this article, we overview new understanding enabled by simulations across methodological variations, focusing on recent insights that connect with experimental observations, namely: 1) the energy scale for cesium adsorption on the basal surface, 2) progress in understanding the structure of clay edges, which is difficult to probe experimentally, 3) cesium adsorption properties at hydrated interlayer sites, 4) the importance of the size relationship between the ionic radius of cesium and the interlayer distance at frayed edge sites, 5) the migration of cesium into deep interlayer sites, and 6) the effects of nuclear decay of radiocesium. Key experimental observations that motivate these simulation advances are also summarized. Furthermore, some directions toward future solutions of waste soil management are discussed based on the obtained microscopic insights.« less

Radiocesium interaction with clay minerals: Theory and simulation advances Post–Fukushima

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Okumura, Masahiko; Kerisit, Sebastien; Bourg, Ian C.

Insights at the microscopic level of the process of radiocesium adsorption and interaction with clay mineral particles have improved substantially over the past several years, triggered by pressing social issues such as management of huge amounts of waste soil accumulated after the Fukushima Dai–ichi nuclear power plant accident. In particular, computer–based molecular modeling supported by advanced hardware and algorithms has proven to be a powerful approach. Its application can now generally encompass the full complexity of clay particle adsorption sites from basal surfaces to interlayers with inserted water molecules, to edges including fresh and weathered frayed ones. On the othermore » hand, its methodological schemes are now varied from traditional force–field molecular dynamics on large–scale realizations composed of many thousands of atoms including water molecules to first–principles methods on smaller models in rather exacting fashion. In this article, we overview new understanding enabled by simulations across methodological variations, focusing on recent insights that connect with experimental observations, namely: 1) the energy scale for cesium adsorption on the basal surface, 2) progress in understanding the structure of clay edges, which is difficult to probe experimentally, 3) cesium adsorption properties at hydrated interlayer sites, 4) the importance of the size relationship between the ionic radius of cesium and the interlayer distance at frayed edge sites, 5) the migration of cesium into deep interlayer sites, and 6) the effects of nuclear decay of radiocesium. Key experimental observations that motivate these simulation advances are also summarized. Furthermore, some directions toward future solutions of waste soil management are discussed based on the obtained microscopic insights.« less

Spatial Heterogeneity as a Genetic Mixing Mechanism in Highly Philopatric Colonial Seabirds

PubMed Central

Cristofari, Robin; Trucchi, Emiliano; Whittington, Jason D.; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Gachot-Neveu, Hélène; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Le Maho, Yvon; Le Bohec, Céline

2015-01-01

How genetic diversity is maintained in philopatric colonial systems remains unclear, and understanding the dynamic balance of philopatry and dispersal at all spatial scales is essential to the study of the evolution of coloniality. In the King penguin, Aptenodytes patagonicus, return rates of post-fledging chicks to their natal sub-colony are remarkably high. Empirical studies have shown that adults return year after year to their previous breeding territories within a radius of a few meters. Yet, little reliable data are available on intra- and inter-colonial dispersal in this species. Here, we present the first fine-scale study of the genetic structure in a king penguin colony in the Crozet Archipelago. Samples were collected from individual chicks and analysed at 8 microsatellite loci. Precise geolocation data of hatching sites and selective pressures associated with habitat features were recorded for all sampling locations. We found that despite strong natal and breeding site fidelity, king penguins retain a high degree of panmixia and genetic diversity. Yet, genetic structure appears markedly heterogeneous across the colony, with higher-than-expected inbreeding levels, and local inbreeding and relatedness hotspots that overlap predicted higher-quality nesting locations. This points towards heterogeneous population structure at the sub-colony level, in which fine-scale environmental features drive local philopatric behaviour, while lower-quality patches may act as genetic mixing mechanisms at the colony level. These findings show how a lack of global genetic structuring can emerge from small-scale heterogeneity in ecological parameters, as opposed to the classical model of homogeneous dispersal. Our results also emphasize the importance of sampling design for estimation of population parameters in colonial seabirds, as at high spatial resolution, basic genetic features are shown to be location-dependent. Finally, this study stresses the importance of understanding intra-colonial dispersal and genetic mixing mechanisms in order to better estimate species-wide gene flows and population dynamics. PMID:25680103

Spatial heterogeneity as a genetic mixing mechanism in highly philopatric colonial seabirds.

PubMed

Cristofari, Robin; Trucchi, Emiliano; Whittington, Jason D; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Gachot-Neveu, Hélène; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Le Maho, Yvon; Le Bohec, Céline

2015-01-01

How genetic diversity is maintained in philopatric colonial systems remains unclear, and understanding the dynamic balance of philopatry and dispersal at all spatial scales is essential to the study of the evolution of coloniality. In the King penguin, Aptenodytes patagonicus, return rates of post-fledging chicks to their natal sub-colony are remarkably high. Empirical studies have shown that adults return year after year to their previous breeding territories within a radius of a few meters. Yet, little reliable data are available on intra- and inter-colonial dispersal in this species. Here, we present the first fine-scale study of the genetic structure in a king penguin colony in the Crozet Archipelago. Samples were collected from individual chicks and analysed at 8 microsatellite loci. Precise geolocation data of hatching sites and selective pressures associated with habitat features were recorded for all sampling locations. We found that despite strong natal and breeding site fidelity, king penguins retain a high degree of panmixia and genetic diversity. Yet, genetic structure appears markedly heterogeneous across the colony, with higher-than-expected inbreeding levels, and local inbreeding and relatedness hotspots that overlap predicted higher-quality nesting locations. This points towards heterogeneous population structure at the sub-colony level, in which fine-scale environmental features drive local philopatric behaviour, while lower-quality patches may act as genetic mixing mechanisms at the colony level. These findings show how a lack of global genetic structuring can emerge from small-scale heterogeneity in ecological parameters, as opposed to the classical model of homogeneous dispersal. Our results also emphasize the importance of sampling design for estimation of population parameters in colonial seabirds, as at high spatial resolution, basic genetic features are shown to be location-dependent. Finally, this study stresses the importance of understanding intra-colonial dispersal and genetic mixing mechanisms in order to better estimate species-wide gene flows and population dynamics.

Modeling sugar cane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

2014-01-01

Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, a particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of Agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS' phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte-Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input parameters on a continental scale across the large regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Ten parameters driving most of the uncertainty in the ORCHIDEE-STICS modeled biomass at the 7 sites are identified by the screening procedure. We found that the 10 most sensitive parameters control phenology (maximum rate of increase of LAI) and root uptake of water and nitrogen (root profile and root growth rate, nitrogen stress threshold) in STICS, and photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), and transpiration and respiration (stomatal conductance, growth and maintenance respiration coefficients) in ORCHIDEE. We find that the optimal carboxylation rate and photosynthesis temperature parameters contribute most to the uncertainty in harvested biomass simulations at site scale. The spatial variation of the ranked correlation between input parameters and modeled biomass at harvest is well explained by rain and temperature drivers, suggesting climate-mediated different sensitivities of modeled sugar cane yield to the model parameters, for Australia and Brazil. This study reveals the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainty variability for a highly parameterized agro-LSM and calls for more systematic uncertainty analyses of such models.

Modeling sugarcane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Caubel, A.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

2014-06-01

Agro-land surface models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugarcane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of partial ranked correlation coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input parameters on a continental scale across the large regions of intensive sugarcane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. The ten parameters driving most of the uncertainty in the ORCHIDEE-STICS modeled biomass at the 7 sites are identified by the screening procedure. We found that the 10 most sensitive parameters control phenology (maximum rate of increase of LAI) and root uptake of water and nitrogen (root profile and root growth rate, nitrogen stress threshold) in STICS, and photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), and transpiration and respiration (stomatal conductance, growth and maintenance respiration coefficients) in ORCHIDEE. We find that the optimal carboxylation rate and photosynthesis temperature parameters contribute most to the uncertainty in harvested biomass simulations at site scale. The spatial variation of the ranked correlation between input parameters and modeled biomass at harvest is well explained by rain and temperature drivers, suggesting different climate-mediated sensitivities of modeled sugarcane yield to the model parameters, for Australia and Brazil. This study reveals the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainty variability for a highly parameterized agro-LSM and calls for more systematic uncertainty analyses of such models.

Understanding Prairie Fen Hydrology - a Hierarchical Multi-Scale Groundwater Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampath, P.; Liao, H.; Abbas, H.; Ma, L.; Li, S.

2012-12-01

Prairie fens provide critical habitat to more than 50 rare species and significantly contribute to the biodiversity of the upper Great Lakes region. The sustainability of these globally unique ecosystems, however, requires that they be fed by a steady supply of pristine, calcareous groundwater. Understanding the hydrology that supports the existence of such fens is essential in preserving these valuable habitats. This research uses process-based multi-scale groundwater modeling for this purpose. Two fen-sites, MacCready Fen and Ives Road Fen, in Southern Michigan were systematically studied. A hierarchy of nested steady-state models was built for each fen-site to capture the system's dynamics at spatial scales ranging from the regional groundwater-shed to the local fens. The models utilize high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM), National Hydrologic Datasets (NHD), a recently-assembled water-well database, and results from a state-wide groundwater mapping project to represent the complex hydro-geological and stress framework. The modeling system simulates both shallow glacial and deep bedrock aquifers as well as the interaction between surface water and groundwater. Aquifer heterogeneities were explicitly simulated with multi-scale transition probability geo-statistics. A two-way hydraulic head feedback mechanism was set up between the nested models, such that the parent models provided boundary conditions to the child models, and in turn the child models provided local information to the parent models. A hierarchical mass budget analysis was performed to estimate the seepage fluxes at the surface water/groundwater interfaces and to assess the relative importance of the processes at multiple scales that contribute water to the fens. The models were calibrated using observed base-flows at stream gauging stations and/or static water levels at wells. Three-dimensional particle tracking was used to predict the sources of water to the fens. We observed from the multi-scale simulations that the water system that supports the fens is a much larger, more connected, and more complex one than expected. The water in the fen can be traced back to a network of sources, including lakes and wetlands at different elevations, which are connected to a regional mound through a "cascade delivery mechanism". This "master recharge area" is the ultimate source of water not only to the fens in its vicinity, but also for many major rivers and aquifers. The implication of this finding is that prairie fens must be managed as part of a much larger, multi-scale groundwater system and we must consider protection of the shorter and long-term water sources. This will require a fundamental reassessment of our current approach to fen conservation, which is primarily based on protection of individual fens and their immediate surroundings. Clearly, in the future we must plan for conservation of the broad recharge areas and the multiple fen complexes they support.

Local and cross-seasonal associations of climate and land use with abundance of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saunders, Sarah P.; Ries, Leslie; Oberhasuer, Karen S.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Zipkin, Elise F.

2017-01-01

Quantifying how climate and land use factors drive population dynamics at regional scales is complex because it depends on the extent of spatial and temporal synchrony among local populations, and the integration of population processes throughout a species’ annual cycle. We modeled weekly, site-specific summer abundance (1994–2013) of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus at sites across Illinois, USA to assess relative associations of monarch abundance with climate and land use variables during the winter, spring, and summer stages of their annual cycle. We developed negative binomial regression models to estimate monarch abundance during recruitment in Illinois as a function of local climate, site-specific crop cover, and county-level herbicide (glyphosate) application. We also incorporated cross-seasonal covariates, including annual abundance of wintering monarchs in Mexico and climate conditions during spring migration and breeding in Texas, USA. We provide the first empirical evidence of a negative association between county-level glyphosate application and local abundance of adult monarchs, particularly in areas of concentrated agriculture. However, this association was only evident during the initial years of the adoption of herbicide-resistant crops (1994–2003). We also found that wetter and, to a lesser degree, cooler springs in Texas were associated with higher summer abundances in Illinois, as were relatively cool local summer temperatures in Illinois. Site-specific abundance of monarchs averaged approximately one fewer per site from 2004–2013 than during the previous decade, suggesting a recent decline in local abundance of monarch butterflies on their summer breeding grounds in Illinois. Our results demonstrate that seasonal climate and land use are associated with trends in adult monarch abundance, and our approach highlights the value of considering fine-resolution temporal fluctuations in population-level responses to environmental conditions when inferring the dynamics of migratory species.

Evaluating the potential for site-specific modification of LiDAR DEM derivatives to improve environmental planning-scale wetland identification using Random Forest classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neil, Gina L.; Goodall, Jonathan L.; Watson, Layne T.

2018-04-01

Wetlands are important ecosystems that provide many ecological benefits, and their quality and presence are protected by federal regulations. These regulations require wetland delineations, which can be costly and time-consuming to perform. Computer models can assist in this process, but lack the accuracy necessary for environmental planning-scale wetland identification. In this study, the potential for improvement of wetland identification models through modification of digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives, derived from high-resolution and increasingly available light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data, at a scale necessary for small-scale wetland delineations is evaluated. A novel approach of flow convergence modelling is presented where Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), curvature, and Cartographic Depth-to-Water index (DTW), are modified to better distinguish wetland from upland areas, combined with ancillary soil data, and used in a Random Forest classification. This approach is applied to four study sites in Virginia, implemented as an ArcGIS model. The model resulted in significant improvement in average wetland accuracy compared to the commonly used National Wetland Inventory (84.9% vs. 32.1%), at the expense of a moderately lower average non-wetland accuracy (85.6% vs. 98.0%) and average overall accuracy (85.6% vs. 92.0%). From this, we concluded that modifying TWI, curvature, and DTW provides more robust wetland and non-wetland signatures to the models by improving accuracy rates compared to classifications using the original indices. The resulting ArcGIS model is a general tool able to modify these local LiDAR DEM derivatives based on site characteristics to identify wetlands at a high resolution.

The impact and importance of intercalibration and intercomparisons for greenhouse gas observational networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavert, Ann; O'Doherty, Simon; Rigby, Matthew; Palmer, Paul; Stanley, Kieran; Young, Dickon; Lunt, Mark; Grant, Aoife; Pitt, Joseph; Bauguitte, Stephane; Helfter, Carole; Mullinger, Neil; Robinson, Andrew; Harris, Neil; Riddick, Stuart; Sonderfeld, Hannah; Boesch, Hartmut; Foster, Grant

2016-04-01

Motivated by the UK 2008 Climate Change Act, which requires the UK to decrease its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% of 1990 levels by 2050, the Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissons (GAUGE) project aims to better quantify UK CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions. As part of this project a UK-focused GHG observational network has been established, drawing together new and existing GHG data streams from regional to global scales. These included high-density regional studies, tall-tower sites, moving platforms (ferry and aircraft) and satellite observations. Under the project these observations will be combined with modelling approaches to better quantify and characterise UK GHG emissions and place them within a global context. This presentation will describe the efforts made to ensure that common calibration scales were used within the GAUGE project and an assessment of the intercomparability of the stationary sites and moving platforms (including 6 near surface regional focused sites, 6 tall tower sites, ferry and aircraft measurements). This assessment was undertaken using both a cylinder intercomparison program (ICP) and a comparison between co-located flask and in situ measurements. The majority of the sites agreed within the WMO comparability guidelines, however, small relative biases in CO2 and CH4 were identified at some sites. These biases generally increased with concentration, with differences up to 0.3ppm in CO2 and 3ppb CH4 observed between tall tower sites and mobile platforms, while larger biases were found at some of the regional study sites. In order to investigate the impact of biases of these types an experiment using pseudo emissions and observations was conducted. To achieve this, sets of emissions estimates for key GHG sources (e.g. for CH4 the sum of anthropogenic, biomass burning, wetlands, rice and oceans and other natural sources) were used to estimate the GHG concentrations at the GAUGE observation sites and mobile platforms via the Met office NAME model. These pseudo observations were then adjusted using a range of biases and simulated calibration offsets. Regional UK emissions were then determined based on inversions performed using the Met office NAME model and hierarchical Bayesian inversion method. Using these emissions estimates we quantified the impact of systematic site biases on derived fluxes, assessing the relevance of the WMO comparability guidelines for our UK study and highlighting the importance of rigorous inter-calibration and comparability of data streams for regional emissions estimation.

The complex nature of calcium cation interactions with phospholipid bilayers

PubMed Central

Melcrová, Adéla; Pokorna, Sarka; Pullanchery, Saranya; Kohagen, Miriam; Jurkiewicz, Piotr; Hof, Martin; Jungwirth, Pavel; Cremer, Paul S.; Cwiklik, Lukasz

2016-01-01

Understanding interactions of calcium with lipid membranes at the molecular level is of great importance in light of their involvement in calcium signaling, association of proteins with cellular membranes, and membrane fusion. We quantify these interactions in detail by employing a combination of spectroscopic methods with atomistic molecular dynamics simulations. Namely, time-resolved fluorescent spectroscopy of lipid vesicles and vibrational sum frequency spectroscopy of lipid monolayers are used to characterize local binding sites of calcium in zwitterionic and anionic model lipid assemblies, while dynamic light scattering and zeta potential measurements are employed for macroscopic characterization of lipid vesicles in calcium-containing environments. To gain additional atomic-level information, the experiments are complemented by molecular simulations that utilize an accurate force field for calcium ions with scaled charges effectively accounting for electronic polarization effects. We demonstrate that lipid membranes have substantial calcium-binding capacity, with several types of binding sites present. Significantly, the binding mode depends on calcium concentration with important implications for calcium buffering, synaptic plasticity, and protein-membrane association. PMID:27905555

The complex nature of calcium cation interactions with phospholipid bilayers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melcrová, Adéla; Pokorna, Sarka; Pullanchery, Saranya; Kohagen, Miriam; Jurkiewicz, Piotr; Hof, Martin; Jungwirth, Pavel; Cremer, Paul S.; Cwiklik, Lukasz

2016-12-01

Understanding interactions of calcium with lipid membranes at the molecular level is of great importance in light of their involvement in calcium signaling, association of proteins with cellular membranes, and membrane fusion. We quantify these interactions in detail by employing a combination of spectroscopic methods with atomistic molecular dynamics simulations. Namely, time-resolved fluorescent spectroscopy of lipid vesicles and vibrational sum frequency spectroscopy of lipid monolayers are used to characterize local binding sites of calcium in zwitterionic and anionic model lipid assemblies, while dynamic light scattering and zeta potential measurements are employed for macroscopic characterization of lipid vesicles in calcium-containing environments. To gain additional atomic-level information, the experiments are complemented by molecular simulations that utilize an accurate force field for calcium ions with scaled charges effectively accounting for electronic polarization effects. We demonstrate that lipid membranes have substantial calcium-binding capacity, with several types of binding sites present. Significantly, the binding mode depends on calcium concentration with important implications for calcium buffering, synaptic plasticity, and protein-membrane association.

Plant-based FRET biosensor discriminates enviornmental zinc levels

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Heavy metal accumulation in the environment poses great risks to flora and fauna. However, monitoring sites prone to accumulation poses scale and economic challenges. In this study, we present and test a method for monitoring these sites using fluorescent resonance energy transfer (FRET) change in r...

Sea level variability at the coast: is it dominated by waves even at interdecadal time scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melet, Angelique; Almar, Rafael; Meyssignac, Benoit

2017-04-01

Tide gauge records and satellite altimetry indicate that global mean sea level has risen by 16±3 cm during the 20th century. This rise is essentially due to thermal expansion of the ocean and land ice loss from glaciers and ice sheets in response to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. It is projected to continue over the 21st century and raise concerns for coastal regions. But coastal sea level variations are influenced by other processes such as tides, atmospheric surges and wave induced run-up and set-up. Here we examine the relative importance of the processes causing sea level variations at the coast over the last 23 years from observational datasets and model reanalyses focusing on coastal sites distributed along the world's coastlines for which tide gauges records are available. We show that the long term wave signal can dampen or enhance the effect of the ocean thermal expansion and land ice loss at the coast, over all time scales from subannnual to multidecadal. We estimate that the effect of waves generally explains 60%±20% of the coastal sea level variations at interannual to multidecadal time scales. In the Eastern Pacific, the wave effect dominates the total budget and counterbalances the thermal expansion of the ocean and land ice loss signals. These results highlight that the wave effect has to be taken into account in sea level predictions and projections.

Influence of climate on landscape characteristics in safety assessments of repositories for radioactive wastes.

PubMed

Becker, J K; Lindborg, T; Thorne, M C

2014-12-01

In safety assessments of repositories for radioactive wastes, large spatial and temporal scales have to be considered when developing an approach to risk calculations. A wide range of different types of information may be required. Local to the site of interest, temperature and precipitation data may be used to determine the erosional regime (which may also be conditioned by the vegetation characteristics adopted, based both on climatic and other considerations). However, geomorphological changes may be governed by regional rather than local considerations, e.g. alteration of river base levels, river capture and drainage network reorganisation, or the progression of an ice sheet or valley glacier across the site. The regional climate is in turn governed by the global climate. In this work, a commentary is presented on the types of climate models that can be used to develop projections of climate change for use in post-closure radiological impact assessments of geological repositories for radioactive wastes. These models include both Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity. The relevant outputs available from these models are identified and consideration is given to how these outputs may be used to inform projections of landscape development. Issues of spatial and temporal downscaling of climate model outputs to meet the requirements of local-scale landscape development modelling are also addressed. An example is given of how climate change and landscape development influence the radiological impact of radionuclides potentially released from the deep geological disposal facility for spent nuclear fuel that SKB (the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company) proposes to construct at Forsmark, Sweden. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Noise characterization of oil and gas operations.

PubMed

Radtke, Cameron; Autenrieth, Daniel A; Lipsey, Tiffany; Brazile, William J

2017-08-01

In cooperation with The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, researchers at Colorado State University performed area noise monitoring at 23 oil and gas sites throughout Northern Colorado. The goals of this study were to: (1) measure and compare the noise levels for the different phases of oil and gas development sites; (2) evaluate the effectiveness of noise barriers; and (3) determine if noise levels exceeded the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission noise limits. The four phases of oil and gas development include drilling, hydraulic fracturing, completion and production. Noise measurements were collected using the A- and C-weighted sound scales. Octave band analysis was also performed to characterize the frequency spectra of the noise measurements.  Noise measurements were collected using noise dosimeters and a hand-held sound-level meter at specified distances from the development sites in each cardinal direction. At 350 ft (107 m), drilling, hydraulic fracturing, and completion sites without noise barriers exceeded the maximum permissible noise levels for residential and commercial zones (55 dBA and 60 dBA, respectively). In addition, drilling and hydraulic fracturing sites with noise barriers exceeded the maximum permissible noise level for residential zones (55 dBA). However, during drilling, hydraulic fracturing, and completion operations, oil producers are allowed an exception to the noise permissible limits in that they only must comply with the industrial noise limit (80 dBA). It is stated in Rule 604.c.(2)A. that: "Operations involving pipeline or gas facility installation or maintenance, the use of a drilling rig, completion rig, workover rig, or stimulation is subject to the maximum permissible noise levels for industrial zones (80dBA)." [8] Production sites were within the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission permissible noise level criteria for all zones. At 350 ft (107 m) from the noise source, all drilling, hydraulic fracturing, and completion sites exceeded 65 dBC.  Current noise wall mitigation strategies reduced noise levels in both the A- and C-weighted scale measurements. However, this reduction in noise was not sufficient to reduce the noise below the residential permissible noise level (55 dBA).

BOREAS RSS-8 BIOME-BGC Model Simulations at Tower Flux Sites in 1994

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Forrest G. (Editor); Nickeson, Jaime (Editor); Kimball, John

2000-01-01

BIOME-BGC is a general ecosystem process model designed to simulate biogeochemical and hydrologic processes across multiple scales (Running and Hunt, 1993). In this investigation, BIOME-BGC was used to estimate daily water and carbon budgets for the BOREAS tower flux sites for 1994. Carbon variables estimated by the model include gross primary production (i.e., net photosynthesis), maintenance and heterotrophic respiration, net primary production, and net ecosystem carbon exchange. Hydrologic variables estimated by the model include snowcover, evaporation, transpiration, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and outflow. The information provided by the investigation includes input initialization and model output files for various sites in tabular ASCII format.

Multiscale characterization and mechanical modeling of an Al-Zn-Mg electron beam weld

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puydt, Quentin; Flouriot, Sylvain; Ringeval, Sylvain; Parry, Guillaume; De Geuser, Frédéric; Deschamps, Alexis

Welding of precipitation hardening alloys results in multi-scale microstructural heterogeneities, from the hardening nano-scale precipitates to the micron-scale solidification structures and to the component geometry. This heterogeneity results in a complex mechanical response, with gradients in strength, stress triaxiality and damage initiation sites.

Modeling greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient transport in managed arable soils with a fully coupled hydrology-biogeochemical modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, Edwin; Klatt, Steffen; Kiese, Ralf; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Kraft, Philipp; Breuer, Lutz

2015-04-01

The use of mineral nitrogen fertilizer sustains the global food production and therefore the livelihood of human kind. The rise in world population will put pressure on the global agricultural system to increase its productivity leading most likely to an intensification of mineral nitrogen fertilizer use. The fate of excess nitrogen and its distribution within landscapes is manifold. Process knowledge on the site scale has rapidly grown in recent years and models have been developed to simulate carbon and nitrogen cycling in managed ecosystems on the site scale. Despite first regional studies, the carbon and nitrogen cycling on the landscape or catchment scale is not fully understood. In this study we present a newly developed modelling approach by coupling the fully distributed hydrology model CMF (catchment modelling framework) to the process based regional ecosystem model LandscapeDNDC for the investigation of hydrological processes and carbon and nitrogen transport and cycling, with a focus on nutrient displacement and resulting greenhouse gas emissions in various virtual landscapes / catchment to demonstrate the capabilities of the modelling system. The modelling system was applied to simulate water and nutrient transport at the at the Yanting Agro-ecological Experimental Station of Purple Soil, Sichuan province, China. The catchment hosts cypress forests on the outer regions, arable fields on the sloping croplands cultivated with wheat-maize rotations and paddy rice fields in the lowland. The catchment consists of 300 polygons vertically stratified into 10 soil layers. Ecosystem states (soil water content and nutrients) and fluxes (evapotranspiration) are exchanged between the models at high temporal scales (hourly to daily) forming a 3-dimensional model application. The water flux and nutrients transport in the soil is modelled using a 3D Richards/Darcy approach for subsurface fluxes with a kinematic wave approach for surface water runoff and the evapotranspiration is based on Penman-Monteith. Biogeochemical processes are modelled by LandscapeDNDC, including soil microclimate, plant growth and biomass allocation, organic matter mineralisation, nitrification, denitrification, chemodenitrification and methanogenesis producing and consuming soil based greenhouse gases. The model application will present first results of the coupled model to simulate soil based greenhouse gas emissions as well as nitrate discharge from the Yanting catchment. The model application will also present the effects of different management practices (fertilization rates and timings, tilling, residues management) on the redistribution of N surplus within the catchment causing biomass productivity gradients and different levels of indirect N2O emissions along topographical gradients.

NEON: High Frequency Monitoring Network for Watershed-Scale Processes and Aquatic Ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vance, J. M.; Fitzgerald, M.; Parker, S. M.; Roehm, C. L.; Goodman, K. J.; Bohall, C.; Utz, R.

2014-12-01

Networked high frequency hydrologic and water quality measurements needed to investigate physical and biogeochemical processes at the watershed scale and create robust models are limited and lacking standardization. Determining the drivers and mechanisms of ecological changes in aquatic systems in response to natural and anthropogenic pressures is challenging due to the large amounts of terrestrial, aquatic, atmospheric, biological, chemical, and physical data it requires at varied spatiotemporal scales. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) is a continental-scale infrastructure project designed to provide data to address the impacts of climate change, land-use, and invasive species on ecosystem structure and function. Using a combination of standardized continuous in situ measurements and observational sampling, the NEON Aquatic array will produce over 200 data products across its spatially-distributed field sites for 30 years to facilitate spatiotemporal analysis of the drivers of ecosystem change. Three NEON sites in Alabama were chosen to address linkages between watershed-scale processes and ecosystem changes along an eco-hydrological gradient within the Tombigbee River Basin. The NEON Aquatic design, once deployed, will include continuous measurements of surface water physical, chemical, and biological parameters, groundwater level, temperature and conductivity and local meteorology. Observational sampling will include bathymetry, water chemistry and isotopes, and a suite of organismal sampling from microbes to macroinvertebrates to vertebrates. NEON deployed a buoy to measure the temperature profile of the Black Warrior River from July - November, 2013 to determine the spatiotemporal variability across the water column from a daily to seasonal scale. In July 2014 a series of water quality profiles were performed to assess the contribution of physical and biogeochemical drivers over a diurnal cycle. Additional river transects were performed across our site reach to capture the spatial variability of surface water parameters. Our preliminary data show differing response times to precipitation events and diurnal processes informing our infrastructure designs and sampling protocols aimed at providing data to address the eco-hydrological gradient.

A model and nomogram to predict tumor site origin for squamous cell cancer confined to cervical lymph nodes.

PubMed

Ali, Arif N; Switchenko, Jeffrey M; Kim, Sungjin; Kowalski, Jeanne; El-Deiry, Mark W; Beitler, Jonathan J

2014-11-15

The current study was conducted to develop a multifactorial statistical model to predict the specific head and neck (H&N) tumor site origin in cases of squamous cell carcinoma confined to the cervical lymph nodes ("unknown primaries"). The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was analyzed for patients with an H&N tumor site who were diagnosed between 2004 and 2011. The SEER patients were identified according to their H&N primary tumor site and clinically positive cervical lymph node levels at the time of presentation. The SEER patient data set was randomly divided into 2 data sets for the purposes of internal split-sample validation. The effects of cervical lymph node levels, age, race, and sex on H&N primary tumor site were examined using univariate and multivariate analyses. Multivariate logistic regression models and an associated set of nomograms were developed based on relevant factors to provide probabilities of tumor site origin. Analysis of the SEER database identified 20,011 patients with H&N disease with both site-level and lymph node-level data. Sex, race, age, and lymph node levels were associated with primary H&N tumor site (nasopharynx, hypopharynx, oropharynx, and larynx) in the multivariate models. Internal validation techniques affirmed the accuracy of these models on separate data. The incorporation of epidemiologic and lymph node data into a predictive model has the potential to provide valuable guidance to clinicians in the treatment of patients with squamous cell carcinoma confined to the cervical lymph nodes. © 2014 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

Biotic, temporal and spatial variability of tritium concentrations in transpirate samples collected in the vicinity of a near-surface low-level nuclear waste disposal site and nearby research reactor.

PubMed

Twining, J R; Hughes, C E; Harrison, J J; Hankin, S; Crawford, J; Johansen, M; Dyer, L

2011-06-01

The results of a 21 month sampling program measuring tritium in tree transpirate with respect to local sources are reported. The aim was to assess the potential of tree transpirate to indicate the presence of sub-surface seepage plumes. Transpirate gathered from trees near low-level nuclear waste disposal trenches contained activity concentrations of (3)H that were significantly higher (up to ∼700 Bq L(-1)) than local background levels (0-10 Bq L(-1)). The effects of the waste source declined rapidly with distance to be at background levels within 10s of metres. A research reactor 1.6 km south of the site contributed significant (p < 0.01) local fallout (3)H but its influence did not reach as far as the disposal trenches. The elevated (3)H levels in transpirate were, however, substantially lower than groundwater concentrations measured across the site (ranging from 0 to 91% with a median of 2%). Temporal patterns of tree transpirate (3)H, together with local meteorological observations, indicate that soil water within the active root zones comprised a mixture of seepage and rainfall infiltration. The degree of mixing was variable given that the soil water activity concentrations were heterogeneous at a scale equivalent to the effective rooting volume of the trees. In addition, water taken up by roots was not well mixed within the trees. Based on correlation modelling, net rainfall less evaporation (a surrogate for infiltration) over a period of from 2 to 3 weeks prior to sampling seems to be the optimum predictor of transpirate (3)H variability for any sampled tree at this site. The results demonstrate successful use of (3)H in transpirate from trees to indicate the presence and general extent of sub-surface contamination at a low-level nuclear waste site. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Local density approximation in site-occupation embedding theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senjean, Bruno; Tsuchiizu, Masahisa; Robert, Vincent; Fromager, Emmanuel

2017-01-01

Site-occupation embedding theory (SOET) is a density functional theory (DFT)-based method which aims at modelling strongly correlated electrons. It is in principle exact and applicable to model and quantum chemical Hamiltonians. The theory is presented here for the Hubbard Hamiltonian. In contrast to conventional DFT approaches, the site (or orbital) occupations are deduced in SOET from a partially interacting system consisting of one (or more) impurity site(s) and non-interacting bath sites. The correlation energy of the bath is then treated implicitly by means of a site-occupation functional. In this work, we propose a simple impurity-occupation functional approximation based on the two-level (2L) Hubbard model which is referred to as two-level impurity local density approximation (2L-ILDA). Results obtained on a prototypical uniform eight-site Hubbard ring are promising. The extension of the method to larger systems and more sophisticated model Hamiltonians is currently in progress.

Novel Sensor for the In Situ Measurement of Uranium Fluxes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hatfield, Kirk

2015-02-10

The goal of this project was to develop a sensor that incorporates the field-tested concepts of the passive flux meter to provide direct in situ measures of flux for uranium and groundwater in porous media. Measurable contaminant fluxes [J] are essentially the product of concentration [C] and groundwater flux or specific discharge [q ]. The sensor measures [J] and [q] by changes in contaminant and tracer amounts respectively on a sorbent. By using measurement rather than inference from static parameters, the sensor can directly advance conceptual and computational models for field scale simulations. The sensor was deployed in conjunction withmore » DOE in obtaining field-scale quantification of subsurface processes affecting uranium transport (e.g., advection) and transformation (e.g., uranium attenuation) at the Rifle IFRC Site in Rifle, Colorado. Project results have expanded our current understanding of how field-scale spatial variations in fluxes of uranium, groundwater and salient electron donor/acceptors are coupled to spatial variations in measured microbial biomass/community composition, effective field-scale uranium mass balances, attenuation, and stability. The coupling between uranium, various nutrients and micro flora can be used to estimate field-scale rates of uranium attenuation and field-scale transitions in microbial communities. This research focuses on uranium (VI), but the sensor principles and design are applicable to field-scale fate and transport of other radionuclides. Laboratory studies focused on sorbent selection and calibration, along with sensor development and validation under controlled conditions. Field studies were conducted at the Rifle IFRC Site in Rifle, Colorado. These studies were closely coordinated with existing SBR (formerly ERSP) projects to complement data collection. Small field tests were conducted during the first two years that focused on evaluating field-scale deployment procedures and validating sensor performance under controlled field conditions. In the third and fourth year a suite of larger field studies were conducted. For these studies, the uranium flux sensor was used with uranium speciation measurements and molecular-biological tools to characterize microbial community and active biomass at synonymous wells distributed in a large grid. These field efforts quantified spatial changes in uranium flux and field-scale rates of uranium attenuation (ambient and stimulated), uranium stability, and quantitatively assessed how fluxes and effective reaction rates were coupled to spatial variations in microbial community and active biomass. Analyses of data from these field experiments were used to generate estimates of Monod kinetic parameters that are ‘effective’ in nature and optimal for modeling uranium fate and transport at the field-scale. This project provided the opportunity to develop the first sensor that provides direct measures of both uranium (VI) and groundwater flux. A multidisciplinary team was assembled to include two geochemists, a microbiologist, and two quantitative contaminant hydrologists. Now that the project is complete, the sensor can be deployed at DOE sites to evaluate field-scale uranium attenuation, source behavior, the efficacy of remediation, and off-site risk. Because the sensor requires no power, it can be deployed at remote sites for periods of days to months. The fundamental science derived from this project can be used to advance the development of predictive models for various transport and attenuation processes in aquifers. Proper development of these models is critical for long-term stewardship of contaminated sites in the context of predicting uranium source behavior, remediation performance, and off-site risk.« less

Fine and Coarse-Scale Patterns of Vegetation Diversity on Reclaimed Surface Mine-land Over a 40-Year Chronosequence.

PubMed

Bohrer, Stefanie L; Limb, Ryan F; Daigh, Aaron L; Volk, Jay M; Wick, Abbey F

2017-03-01

Rangelands are described as heterogeneous, due to patterning in species assemblages and productivity that arise from species dispersal and interactions with environmental gradients and disturbances across multiple scales. The objectives of rangeland reclamation are typically vegetation establishment, plant community productivity, and soil stability. However, while fine-scale diversity is often promoted through species-rich seed mixes, landscape heterogeneity and coarse-scale diversity are largely overlooked. Our objectives were to evaluate fine and coarse-scale vegetation patterns across a 40-year reclamation chronosequence on reclaimed surface coalmine lands. We hypothesized that both α-diversity and β-diversity would increase and community patch size and species dissimilarity to reference sites would decrease on independent sites over 40 years. Plant communities were surveyed on 19 post-coalmine reclaimed sites and four intact native reference sites in central North Dakota mixed-grass prairie. Our results showed no differences in α or β-diversity and plant community patch size over the 40-year chronosequence. However, both α-diversity and β-diversity on reclaimed sites was similar to reference sites. Native species establishment was limited due to the presence of non-native species such as Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis) on both the reclaimed and reference sites. Species composition was different between reclaimed and reference sites and community dissimilarity increased on reclaimed sites over the 40-year chronosequence. Plant communities resulting from reclamation followed non-equilibrium succession, even with consistent seeds mixes established across all reclaimed years. This suggests post-reclamation management strategies influence species composition outcomes and land management strategies applied uniformly may not increase landscape-level diversity.

Combining tower mixing ratio and community model data to estimate regional-scale net ecosystem carbon exchange by boundary layer inversion over four flux towers in the United States

Treesearch

Xueri Dang; Chun-Ta Lai; David Y. Hollinger; Andrew J. Schauer; Jingfeng Xiao; J. William Munger; Clenton Owensby; James R. Ehleringer

2011-01-01

We evaluated an idealized boundary layer (BL) model with simple parameterizations using vertical transport information from community model outputs (NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis and ECMWF Interim Analysis) to estimate regional-scale net CO2 fluxes from 2002 to 2007 at three forest and one grassland flux sites in the United States. The BL modeling...

Urban land use decouples plant-herbivore-parasitoid interactions at multiple spatial scales.

PubMed

Nelson, Amanda E; Forbes, Andrew A

2014-01-01

Intense urban and agricultural development alters habitats, increases fragmentation, and may decouple trophic interactions if plants or animals cannot disperse to needed resources. Specialist insects represent a substantial proportion of global biodiversity and their fidelity to discrete microhabitats provides a powerful framework for investigating organismal responses to human land use. We sampled site occupancy and densities for two plant-herbivore-parasitoid systems from 250 sites across a 360 km2 urban/agricultural landscape to ask whether and how human development decouples interactions between trophic levels. We compared patterns of site occupancy, host plant density, herbivory and parasitism rates of insects at two trophic levels with respect to landcover at multiple spatial scales. Geospatial analyses were used to identify landcover characters predictive of insect distributions. We found that herbivorous insect densities were decoupled from host tree densities in urban landcover types at several spatial scales. This effect was amplified for the third trophic level in one of the two insect systems: despite being abundant regionally, a parasitoid species was absent from all urban/suburban landcover even where its herbivore host was common. Our results indicate that human land use patterns limit distributions of specialist insects. Dispersal constraints associated with urban built development are specifically implicated as a limiting factor.

Urban Land Use Decouples Plant-Herbivore-Parasitoid Interactions at Multiple Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Nelson, Amanda E.; Forbes, Andrew A.

2014-01-01

Intense urban and agricultural development alters habitats, increases fragmentation, and may decouple trophic interactions if plants or animals cannot disperse to needed resources. Specialist insects represent a substantial proportion of global biodiversity and their fidelity to discrete microhabitats provides a powerful framework for investigating organismal responses to human land use. We sampled site occupancy and densities for two plant-herbivore-parasitoid systems from 250 sites across a 360 km2 urban/agricultural landscape to ask whether and how human development decouples interactions between trophic levels. We compared patterns of site occupancy, host plant density, herbivory and parasitism rates of insects at two trophic levels with respect to landcover at multiple spatial scales. Geospatial analyses were used to identify landcover characters predictive of insect distributions. We found that herbivorous insect densities were decoupled from host tree densities in urban landcover types at several spatial scales. This effect was amplified for the third trophic level in one of the two insect systems: despite being abundant regionally, a parasitoid species was absent from all urban/suburban landcover even where its herbivore host was common. Our results indicate that human land use patterns limit distributions of specialist insects. Dispersal constraints associated with urban built development are specifically implicated as a limiting factor. PMID:25019962

Uranium Fate and Transport Modeling, Guterl Specialty Steel Site, New York - 13545

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frederick, Bill; Tandon, Vikas

2013-07-01

The Former Guterl Specialty Steel Corporation Site (Guterl Site) is located 32 kilometers (20 miles) northeast of Buffalo, New York, in Lockport, Niagara County, New York. Between 1948 and 1952, up to 15,875 metric tons (35 million pounds) of natural uranium metal (U) were processed at the former Guterl Specialty Steel Corporation site in Lockport, New York. The resulting dust, thermal scale, mill shavings and associated land disposal contaminated both the facility and on-site soils. Uranium subsequently impacted groundwater and a fully developed plume exists below the site. Uranium transport from the site involves legacy on-site pickling fluid handling, themore » leaching of uranium from soil to groundwater, and the groundwater transport of dissolved uranium to the Erie Canal. Groundwater fate and transport modeling was performed to assess the transfer of dissolved uranium from the contaminated soils and buildings to groundwater and subsequently to the nearby Erie Canal. The modeling provides a tool to determine if the uranium contamination could potentially affect human receptors in the vicinity of the site. Groundwater underlying the site and in the surrounding area generally flows southeasterly towards the Erie Canal; locally, groundwater is not used as a drinking water resource. The risk to human health was evaluated outside the Guterl Site boundary from the possibility of impacted groundwater discharging to and mixing with the Erie Canal waters. This condition was evaluated because canal water is infrequently used as an emergency water supply for the City of Lockport via an intake located approximately 122 meters (m) (400 feet [ft]) southeast of the Guterl Site. Modeling was performed to assess whether mixing of groundwater with surface water in the Erie Canal could result in levels of uranium exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) established drinking water standard for total uranium; the Maximum Concentration Limit (MCL). Geotechnical test data indicate that the major portion of uranium in the soil will adsorb or remain bound to soil, yet leaching to groundwater appears as an on-site source. Soil leaching was modeled using low adsorption factors to replicate worst-case conditions where the uranium leaches to the groundwater. Results indicate that even after several decades, which is the period of time since uranium was processed at the Guterl Site, leaching from soil does not fully account for the currently observed levels of groundwater contamination. Modeling results suggest that there were historic releases of uranium from processing operations directly to the shallow fractured rock and possibly other geochemical conditions that have produced the current groundwater contamination. Groundwater data collected at the site between 1997 and 2011 do not indicate an increasing level of uranium in the main plume, thus the uranium adsorbed to the soil is in equilibrium with the groundwater geochemistry and transport conditions. Consequently, increases in the overall plume concentration or size are not expected. Groundwater flowing through fractures under the Guterl Site transports dissolved uranium from the site to the Erie Canal, where the groundwater has been observed to seep from the northern canal wall at some locations. The seeps discharge uranium at concentrations near or below the MCL to the Erie Canal. Conservative mixing calculations were performed using two worst-case assumptions: 1) the seeps were calculated as contiguous discharges from the Erie Canal wall and 2) the uranium concentration of the seepage is 274 micrograms per liter (μg/L) of uranium, which is the highest on-site uranium concentration in groundwater and nearly ten-fold the actual seep concentrations. The results indicate that uranium concentrations in the seep water would have to be more than 200 times greater than the highest observed on-site groundwater concentrations (or nearly 55,000 μg/L) to potentially exceed the drinking water standard (the MCL) for total uranium in the Erie Canal. (authors)« less

Prospective Creation and Validation of the PREVENTT (Prediction and Enaction of Prevention Treatments Trigger) Scale for Surgical Site Infections (SSIs) in Patients With Diverticulitis.

PubMed

Bordeianou, Liliana; Cauley, Christy E; Patel, Ruchin; Bleday, Ronald; Mahmood, Sadiqa; Kennedy, Kevin; Ahmed, Khawaja F; Yokoe, Deborah; Hooper, David; Rubin, Marc

2018-06-18

Create and validate diverticulitis surgical site infection prediction scale. Surgical site infections cause significant morbidity after colorectal surgery. An infection prediction scale could target infection prevention bundles to high-risk patients. Prospectively collected National Surgical Quality Improvement Program and electronic medical record data obtained on diverticulitis colectomy patients across a Healthcare Network-wide Colorectal Surgery Collaborative (5 hospitals). Patients with and without surgical site infections were compared. Predictive variables were identified using logistic regression model; model estimates obtained through 1000 bootstrap replications for scale validation. A total of 1737 colectomies were performed (2010-2016): mean age 59.9 years (SD 12.7), 56.4% female; 93.4% Caucasian; smokers 16.3%, diabetics 7.7%, steroid use 6.0%. Two hundred thirty-one (13.3%) were presented to operating room emergently and 138 (7.9%) with abscess at time of disease admission. Two hundred ninety-six patients underwent Hartman procedures, and 113 (6.5%) received diverted primary anastomosis. Average length of stay was 6.9 days (standard deviation 7.01), 30-day mortality was 1.5%, anastomotic leak rate was 3.1%. Twenty-one percent of patients (n = 366) developed a surgical site infection. Several predictors for infection were identified: obesity (body mass index >30), advanced age (>70 years), diabetes mellitus, preoperative abscess, open surgery, emergent operations, and prolonged operations (>3 h). Creation of protected anastomosis in emergent settings was associated with increased infection rates. Presence of more than 5 risk factors was associated with infection rates of 45.8% (c = 0.69). Patients with diverticulitis have high surgical site infection rates due to nonmodifiable risk factors. Our Prediction and Enaction of Prevention Treatments Trigger scale can risk stratify patients for targeting surgical site infection prevention bundles and outcomes risk adjustments.

Cyberinfrastructure for remote environmental observatories: a model homogeneous sensor network in the Great Basin, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strachan, Scotty; Slater, David; Fritzinger, Eric; Lyles, Bradley; Kent, Graham; Smith, Kenneth; Dascalu, Sergiu; Harris, Frederick

2017-04-01

Sensor-based data collection has changed the potential scale and resolution of in-situ environmental studies by orders of magnitude, increasing expertise and management requirements accordingly. Cost-effective management of these observing systems is possible by leveraging cyberinfrastructure resources. Presented is a case study environmental observation network in the Great Basin region, USA, the Nevada Climate-ecohydrological Assessment Network (NevCAN). NevCAN stretches hundreds of kilometers across several mountain ranges and monitors climate and ecohydrological conditions from low desert (900 m ASL) to high subalpine treeline (3360 m ASL) down to 1-minute timescales. The network has been operating continuously since 2010, collecting billions of sensor data points and millions of camera images that record hourly conditions at each site, despite requiring relatively low annual maintenance expenditure. These data have provided unique insight into fine-scale processes across mountain gradients, which is crucial scientific information for a water-scarce region. The key to maintaining data continuity for these remotely-located study sites has been use of uniform data transport and management systems, coupled with high-reliability power system designs. Enabling non-proprietary digital communication paths to all study sites and sensors allows the research team to acquire data in near-real-time, troubleshoot problems, and diversify sensor hardware. A wide-area network design based on common Internet Protocols (IP) has been extended into each study site, providing production bandwidth of between 2 Mbps and 60 Mbps, depending on local conditions. The network architecture and site-level support systems (such as power generation) have been implemented with the core objectives of capacity, redundancy, and modularity. NevCAN demonstrates that by following simple but uniform "best practices", the next generation of regionally-specific environmental observatories can evolve to provide dramatically improved levels of scientific and hazard monitoring that span complex topographies and remote geography.

Environmental constraints and call evolution in torrent-dwelling frogs.

PubMed

Goutte, Sandra; Dubois, Alain; Howard, Samuel D; Marquez, Rafael; Rowley, Jodi J L; Dehling, J Maximilian; Grandcolas, Philippe; Rongchuan, Xiong; Legendre, Frédéric

2016-04-01

Although acoustic signals are important for communication in many taxa, signal propagation is affected by environmental properties. Strong environmental constraints should drive call evolution, favoring signals with greater transmission distance and content integrity in a given calling habitat. Yet, few empirical studies have verified this prediction, possibly due to a shortcoming in habitat characterization, which is often too broad. Here we assess the potential impact of environmental constraints on the evolution of advertisement call in four groups of torrent-dwelling frogs in the family Ranidae. We reconstruct the evolution of calling site preferences, both broadly categorized and at a finer scale, onto a phylogenetic tree for 148 species with five markers (∼3600 bp). We test models of evolution for six call traits for 79 species with regard to the reconstructed history of calling site preferences and estimate their ancestral states. We find that in spite of existing morphological constraints, vocalizations of torrent-dwelling species are most probably constrained by the acoustic specificities of torrent habitats and particularly their high level of ambient noise. We also show that a fine-scale characterization of calling sites allows a better perception of the impact of environmental constraints on call evolution. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Local and Long-Distance Effects of Land Use Change on Nutrient Levels in Streams and Rivers of the Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, R. A.; Alexander, R. B.; Schwarz, G. E.

2003-12-01

Determining the effects of land use change (e.g. urbanization, deforestation) on water quality at large spatial scales has been difficult because water quality measurements in large rivers with heterogeneous basins show the integrated effects of multiple factors. Moreover, the observed effects of land use changes on water quality in small homogeneous stream basins may not be indicative of downstream effects (including effects on such ecologically relevant characteristics as nutrient levels and elemental ratios) because of loss processes occurring during downstream transport in river channels. In this study we used the USGS SPARROW (Spatially-Referenced Regression on Watersheds) models of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in streams and rivers of the conterminous US to examine the effects of various aspects of land use change on nutrient concentrations and flux from the pre-development era to the present. The models were calibrated with data from 370 long-term monitoring stations representing a wide range of basin sizes, land use/cover classes, climates, and physiographies. The non-linear formulation for each model includes 20+ statistically estimated parameters relating to land use/cover characteristics and other environmental variables such as temperature, soil conditions, hill slope, and the hydraulic characteristics of 2200 large lakes and reservoirs. Model predictions are available for 62,000 river/stream channel nodes. Model predictions of pre-development water quality compare favorably with nutrient data from 63 undeveloped (reference) sites. Error statistics are available for predictions at all nodes. Model simulations were chosen to compare the effects of selected aspects of land use change on nutrient levels at large and small basin scales, lacustrine and coastal receiving waters, and among the major US geographic regions.

Extensive de novo mutation rate variation between individuals and across the genome of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii

PubMed Central

Ness, Rob W.; Morgan, Andrew D.; Vasanthakrishnan, Radhakrishnan B.; Colegrave, Nick; Keightley, Peter D.

2015-01-01

Describing the process of spontaneous mutation is fundamental for understanding the genetic basis of disease, the threat posed by declining population size in conservation biology, and much of evolutionary biology. Directly studying spontaneous mutation has been difficult, however, because new mutations are rare. Mutation accumulation (MA) experiments overcome this by allowing mutations to build up over many generations in the near absence of natural selection. Here, we sequenced the genomes of 85 MA lines derived from six genetically diverse strains of the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. We identified 6843 new mutations, more than any other study of spontaneous mutation. We observed sevenfold variation in the mutation rate among strains and that mutator genotypes arose, increasing the mutation rate approximately eightfold in some replicates. We also found evidence for fine-scale heterogeneity in the mutation rate, with certain sequence motifs mutating at much higher rates, and clusters of multiple mutations occurring at closely linked sites. There was little evidence, however, for mutation rate heterogeneity between chromosomes or over large genomic regions of 200 kbp. We generated a predictive model of the mutability of sites based on their genomic properties, including local GC content, gene expression level, and local sequence context. Our model accurately predicted the average mutation rate and natural levels of genetic diversity of sites across the genome. Notably, trinucleotides vary 17-fold in rate between the most and least mutable sites. Our results uncover a rich heterogeneity in the process of spontaneous mutation both among individuals and across the genome. PMID:26260971

For wind turbines in complex terrain, the devil is in the detail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Julia; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob; Parvu, Dan; Kilpatrick, Ryan; Costache, Adrian; Chowdhury, Jubayer; Siddiqui, Kamran; Hangan, Horia

2017-09-01

The cost of energy produced by onshore wind turbines is among the lowest available; however, onshore wind turbines are often positioned in a complex terrain, where the wind resources and wind conditions are quite uncertain due to the surrounding topography and/or vegetation. In this study, we use a scale model in a three-dimensional wind-testing chamber to show how minor changes in the terrain can result in significant differences in the flow at turbine height. These differences affect not only the power performance but also the life-time and maintenance costs of wind turbines, and hence, the economy and feasibility of wind turbine projects. We find that the mean wind, wind shear and turbulence level are extremely sensitive to the exact details of the terrain: a small modification of the edge of our scale model, results in a reduction of the estimated annual energy production by at least 50% and an increase in the turbulence level by a factor of five in the worst-case scenario with the most unfavorable wind direction. Wind farm developers should be aware that near escarpments destructive flows can occur and their extent is uncertain thus warranting on-site field measurements.

The NEON Aquatic Network: Expanding the Availability of Biogeochemical Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vance, J. M.; Bohall, C.; Fitzgerald, M.; Utz, R.; Parker, S. M.; Roehm, C. L.; Goodman, K. J.; McLaughlin, B.

2013-12-01

Aquatic ecosystems are facing unprecedented pressure from climate change and land-use practices. Invasive species, whether plant, animal, insect or microbe present additional threat to aquatic ecosystem services. There are significant scientific challenges to understanding how these forces will interact to affect aquatic ecosystems, as the flow of energy and materials in the environment is driven by multivariate and non-linear biogeochemical cycles. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) will collect and provide observational data across multiple scales. Sites were selected to maximize representation of major North American ecosystems using a multivariate geographic clustering method that partitioned the continental US, AK, HI, and Puerto Rico into 20 eco-climatic domains. The NEON data collection systems and methods are designed to yield standardized, near real-time data subjected to rigorous quality controls prior to public dissemination through an online data portal. NEON will collect data for 30 years to facilitate spatial-temporal analysis of environmental responses and drivers of ecosystem change, ranging from local through continental scales. Here we present the NEON Aquatic Network, a multi-parameter network consisting of a combination of in situ sensor and observational data. This network will provide data to examine biogeochemical, biological, hydrologic and geomorphic metrics at 36 sites, which are a combination of small 1st/2nd order wadeable streams, large rivers and lakes. A typical NEON Aquatic site will host up to two in-stream sensor sets designed to collect near-continuous water quality data (e.g. pH/ORP, temperature, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, CDOM) along with up to 8 shallow groundwater monitoring wells (level, temp., cond.), and a local meteorological station (e.g. 2D wind speed, PAR, barometric pressure, temperature, net radiation). These coupled sensor suites will be complemented by observational data (e.g. water/sediment chemistry, aquatic organisms, geomorphology). The aquatic network will produce ~212 low-level data products for each site. NEON will produce several higher level data products such as measurements of whole-stream metabolism, gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and fluxes of nitrogen, phosphorous and carbon that will enable users to analyze processes on a gross scale. These data may be integrated with NEON's terrestrial and airborne networks to bridge the gap between aquatic and terrestrial biogeochemical research. The NEON Aquatic Network is poised to greatly expand our ability to create more robust biogeochemical models. For example, hydrologic and stable isotope data will allow investigation of terrestrial-aquatic carbon flux. Constraints provided by NEON's terrestrial and atmospheric data concurrent with remotely sensed data will facilitate the scaling to regional and continental scales, potentially leading to greater accuracy in the global carbon budget. The NEON Aquatic Network represents a powerful tool that will give the scientific community access to standardized data over spatiotemporal scales that are needed to answer fundamental questions about natural ecological variability and responses to changes in the environment.

A three-site gauge model for flavor hierarchies and flavor anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordone, Marzia; Cornella, Claudia; Fuentes-Martín, Javier; Isidori, Gino

2018-04-01

We present a three-site Pati-Salam gauge model able to explain the Standard Model flavor hierarchies while, at the same time, accommodating the recent experimental hints of lepton-flavor non-universality in B decays. The model is consistent with low- and high-energy bounds, and predicts a rich spectrum of new states at the TeV scale that could be probed in the near future by the high-pT experiments at the LHC.

Visualising landscape evolution: the effects of resolution on soil redistribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoorl, Jeroen M.; Claessens, Lieven; (A) Veldkamp, Tom

2017-04-01

Landscape forming processes such as erosion by water, land sliding by water and gravity or ploughing by gravity, are closely related to resolution and land use changes. These processes may be controlled and influenced by multiple bio-physical and socio-economic driving factors, resulting in a complex multi-scale system. Consequently, land use changes should not be analysed in isolation without accounting for both on-site and off-site effects of these landscape processes in landscapes where water driven and or gravity driven processes are very active,. Especially the visualisation of these on- and off-site effects as a movie of evolving time series and changes is a potential valuable possibility in DEM modelling approaches. To investigate the interactions between land use, land use change, resolution of DEMs and landscape processes, a case study for the Álora region in southern Spain will presented, mainly as movies of modelling time-series, Starting from a baseline scenario of land use change, different levels of resolutions, interactions and feedbacks are added to the coupled LAPSUS model framework: Quantities and spatial patterns of both land use change and soil redistribution are compared between the baseline scenario without interactions and with each of the interaction mechanisms implemented consecutively. All as a function of spatial resolution. Keywords: LAPSUS; land use change; soil erosion, movie;

A TRAJECTORY-CLUSTERING CORRELATION METHODOLOGY FOR EXAMINING THE LONG-RANGE TRANSPORT OF AIR POLLUTANTS. (R825260)

EPA Science Inventory

We present a robust methodology for examining the relationship between synoptic-scale atmospheric transport patterns and pollutant concentration levels observed at a site. Our approach entails calculating a large number of back-trajectories from the observational site over a long...

Going to Scale: Experiences Implementing a School-Based Trauma Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nadeem, Erum; Jaycox, Lisa H.; Kataoka, Sheryl H.; Langley, Audra K.; Stein, Bradley D.

2011-01-01

This article describes implementation experiences "scaling up" the Cognitive Behavioral Intervention for Trauma in Schools (CBITS)--an intervention developed using a community partnered research framework. Case studies from two sites that have successfully implemented CBITS are used to examine macro- and school-level implementation…

Optimization strategies for sediment reduction practices on roads in steep, forested terrain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madej, Mary Ann; Eschenbach, E.A.; Diaz, C.; Teasley, R.; Baker, K.

2006-01-01

Many forested steeplands in the western United States display a legacy of disturbances due to timber harvest, mining or wildfires, for example. Such disturbances have caused accelerated hillslope erosion, leading to increased sedimentation in fish-bearing streams. Several restoration techniques have been implemented to address these problems in mountain catchments, many of which involve the removal of abandoned roads and re-establishing drainage networks across road prisms. With limited restoration funds to be applied across large catchments, land managers are faced with deciding which areas and problems should be treated first, and by which technique, in order to design the most effective and cost-effective sediment reduction strategy. Currently most restoration is conducted on a site-specific scale according to uniform treatment policies. To create catchment-scale policies for restoration, we developed two optimization models - dynamic programming and genetic algorithms - to determine the most cost-effective treatment level for roads and stream crossings in a pilot study basin with approximately 700 road segments and crossings. These models considered the trade-offs between the cost and effectiveness of different restoration strategies to minimize the predicted erosion from all forest roads within a catchment, while meeting a specified budget constraint. The optimal sediment reduction strategies developed by these models performed much better than two strategies of uniform erosion control which are commonly applied to road erosion problems by land managers, with sediment savings increased by an additional 48 to 80 per cent. These optimization models can be used to formulate the most cost-effective restoration policy for sediment reduction on a catchment scale. Thus, cost savings can be applied to further restoration work within the catchment. Nevertheless, the models are based on erosion rates measured on past restoration sites, and need to be up-dated as additional monitoring studies evaluate long-term basin response to erosion control treatments. Copyright ?? 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Nocturnal Boundary Layer Simulation over the ARM-CART Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D.; Leclerc, M.; Duarte, H.; Fischer, M.; Kurzeja, R.; Parker, M.

2008-12-01

The nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) is characterized by strong inversions and weak turbulent motions. It is during this time that low-level jets (LLJs) often form as the winds aloft reach speeds approaching 15-25m/s at levels below 1000m. During the daytime, turbulent mixing quickly damps such organized motion, but at night the surface cooling establishes an inversion which reduces turbulence and allows jets to form uninhibited. A field project over the ARM-CART site during a period of several nights in September, 2007 was conducted to explore the jet evolution. Data was collected from a tower and analyzed for turbulent behavior. With data limited to a single location, however, the full range of NBL behavior is difficult to determine. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is therefore used to simulate the ARM-CART NBL field experiment and validated against the data collected from the site. This model was run at high resolution, and is ideal for calculating the interactions among the various motions within the boundary layer and their influence on the surface. The model can provide information throughout the NBL - with a larger domain, a simulation of the NBL can provide information over a large range of locations and heights. In particular, we are interested in the way that the simulated NBL eddies are affected by their height and proximity to the LLJ, and how this compares to the tower results. The eddy sizes that exist in the model are limited by its grid spacing, but a series of smaller, finer nests allow us to study eddy motion at the relevant scales for short periods.

Green Infrastructure Modeling Tools

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Modeling tools support planning and design decisions on a range of scales from setting a green infrastructure target for an entire watershed to designing a green infrastructure practice for a particular site.

Simultaneous Prediction of New Morbidity, Mortality, and Survival without New Morbidity from Pediatric Intensive Care: A New Paradigm for Outcomes Assessment

PubMed Central

Pollack, Murray M.; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Berger, John T.; Clark, Amy E.; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A.; Carcillo, Joseph; Wessel, David L.; Moler, Frank; Dalton, Heidi; Newth, Christopher J. L.; Shanley, Thomas; Harrison, Rick E.; Doctor, Allan; Jenkins, Tammara L.; Tamburro, Robert; Dean, J. Michael

2015-01-01

Objective Assessments of care including quality assessments adjusted for physiological status should include the development of new morbidities as well as mortalities. We hypothesized that morbidity, like mortality, is associated with physiological dysfunction and could be predicted simultaneously with mortality. Design Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011 to April 7, 2013. Setting and Patients General and cardiac/cardiovascular pediatric intensive care units at 7 sites. Measurements and Main Results Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted morbidity rates (measured with the Functional Status Scale (FSS), and defined as an increase of ≥ 3 from pre-illness to hospital discharge) were 4.6% (site range 2.6% to 7.7%) and unadjusted mortality rates were 2.7% (site range 1.3% – 5.0%). Morbidity and mortality were significantly (p<0.001) associated with physiological instability (measured with the PRISM III score) in dichotomous (survival, death) and trichotomous (survival without new morbidity, survival with new morbidity, death) models without covariate adjustments. Morbidity risk increased with increasing PRISM III scores and then decreased at the highest PRISM III values as potential morbidities became mortalities. The trichotomous model with covariate adjustments included age, admission source, diagnostic factors, baseline FSS and the PRISM III score. The three-level goodness of fit test indicated satisfactory performance for the derivation and validation sets (p>0.20). Predictive ability assessed with the volume under the surface (VUS) was 0.50 ± 0.019 (derivation) and 0.50 ± 0.034 (validation) (versus chance performance = 0.17). Site-level standardized morbidity ratios were more variable than standardized mortality ratios. Conclusions New morbidities were associated with physiological status and can be modeled simultaneously with mortality. Trichotomous outcome models including both morbidity and mortality based on physiological status are suitable for research studies, and quality and other outcome assessments. This approach may be applicable to other assessments presently based only on mortality. PMID:25985385

A New Canopy Integration Factor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badgley, G.; Anderegg, L. D. L.; Baker, I. T.; Berry, J. A.

2017-12-01

Ecosystem modelers have long debated how to best represent within-canopy heterogeneity. Can one big leaf represent the full range of canopy physiological responses? Or you need two leaves - sun and shade - to get things right? Is it sufficient to treat the canopy as a diffuse medium? Or would it be better to explicitly represent separate canopy layers? These are open questions that have been subject of an enormous amount of research and scrutiny. Yet regardless of how the canopy is represented, each model must grapple with correctly parameterizing its canopy in a way that properly translates leaf-level processes to the canopy and ecosystem scale. We present a new approach for integrating whole-canopy biochemistry by combining remote sensing with ecological theory. Using the Simple Biosphere model (SiB), we redefined how SiB scales photosynthetic processes from leaf-to-canopy as a function of satellite-derived measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF). Across multiple long-term study sites, our approach improves the accuracy of daily modeled photosynthesis by as much as 25 percent. We share additional insights on how SIF might be more directly integrated into photosynthesis models, as well as present ideas for harnessing SIF to more accurately parameterize canopy biochemical variables.

On the Scaling Laws and Similarity Spectra for Jet Noise in Subsonic and Supersonic Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kandula, Max

2008-01-01

The scaling laws for the simulation of noise from subsonic and ideally expanded supersonic jets are reviewed with regard to their applicability to deduce full-scale conditions from small-scale model testing. Important parameters of scale model testing for the simulation of jet noise are identified, and the methods of estimating full- scale noise levels from simulated scale model data are addressed. The limitations of cold-jet data in estimating high-temperature supersonic jet noise levels are discussed. New results are presented showing the dependence of overall sound power level on the jet temperature ratio at various jet Mach numbers. A generalized similarity spectrum is also proposed, which accounts for convective Mach number and angle to the jet axis.

Reduced-complexity multi-site rainfall generation: one million years over night using the model TripleM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breinl, Korbinian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Girons Lopez, Marc

2017-04-01

We assess uncertainties of multi-site rainfall generation across spatial scales and different climatic conditions. Many research subjects in earth sciences such as floods, droughts or water balance simulations require the generation of long rainfall time series. In large study areas the simulation at multiple sites becomes indispensable to account for the spatial rainfall variability, but becomes more complex compared to a single site due to the intermittent nature of rainfall. Weather generators can be used for extrapolating rainfall time series, and various models have been presented in the literature. Even though the large majority of multi-site rainfall generators is based on similar methods, such as resampling techniques or Markovian processes, they often become too complex. We think that this complexity has been a limit for the application of such tools. Furthermore, the majority of multi-site rainfall generators found in the literature are either not publicly available or intended for being applied at small geographical scales, often only in temperate climates. Here we present a revised, and now publicly available, version of a multi-site rainfall generation code first applied in 2014 in Austria and France, which we call TripleM (Multisite Markov Model). We test this fast and robust code with daily rainfall observations from the United States, in a subtropical, tropical and temperate climate, using rain gauge networks with a maximum site distance above 1,000km, thereby generating one million years of synthetic time series. The modelling of these one million years takes one night on a recent desktop computer. In this research, we first start the simulations with a small station network of three sites and progressively increase the number of sites and the spatial extent, and analyze the changing uncertainties for multiple statistical metrics such as dry and wet spells, rainfall autocorrelation, lagged cross correlations and the inter-annual rainfall variability. Our study contributes to the scientific community of earth sciences and the ongoing debate on extreme precipitation in a changing climate by making a stable, and very easily applicable, multi-site rainfall generation code available to the research community and providing a better understanding of the performance of multi-site rainfall generation depending on spatial scales and climatic conditions.

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display at Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-02-26

JWST Full-Scale Model on Display. A full-scale model of the James Webb Space Telescope was built by the prime contractor, Northrop Grumman, to provide a better understanding of the size, scale and complexity of this satellite. The model is constructed mainly of aluminum and steel, weighs 12,000 lb., and is approximately 80 feet long, 40 feet wide and 40 feet tall. The model requires 2 trucks to ship it and assembly takes a crew of 12 approximately four days. This model has travelled to a few sites since 2005. The photographs below were taken at some of its destinations. The model is pictured here in Greenbelt, MD at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/Pat Izzo

A sub-canopy structure for simulating oil palm in the Community Land Model (CLM-Palm): phenology, allocation and yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Y.; Roupsard, O.; Bernoux, M.; Le Maire, G.; Panferov, O.; Kotowska, M. M.; Knohl, A.

2015-11-01

In order to quantify the effects of forests to oil palm conversion occurring in the tropics on land-atmosphere carbon, water and energy fluxes, we develop a new perennial crop sub-model CLM-Palm for simulating a palm plant functional type (PFT) within the framework of the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). CLM-Palm is tested here on oil palm only but is meant of generic interest for other palm crops (e.g., coconut). The oil palm has monopodial morphology and sequential phenology of around 40 stacked phytomers, each carrying a large leaf and a fruit bunch, forming a multilayer canopy. A sub-canopy phenological and physiological parameterization is thus introduced so that each phytomer has its own prognostic leaf growth and fruit yield capacity but with shared stem and root components. Phenology and carbon and nitrogen allocation operate on the different phytomers in parallel but at unsynchronized steps, separated by a thermal period. An important phenological phase is identified for the oil palm - the storage growth period of bud and "spear" leaves which are photosynthetically inactive before expansion. Agricultural practices such as transplanting, fertilization and leaf pruning are represented. Parameters introduced for the oil palm were calibrated and validated with field measurements of leaf area index (LAI), yield and net primary production (NPP) from Sumatra, Indonesia. In calibration with a mature oil palm plantation, the cumulative yields from 2005 to 2014 matched notably well between simulation and observation (mean percentage error = 3 %). Simulated inter-annual dynamics of PFT-level and phytomer-level LAI were both within the range of field measurements. Validation from eight independent oil palm sites shows the ability of the model to adequately predict the average leaf growth and fruit yield across sites and sufficiently represent the significant nitrogen- and age-related site-to-site variability in NPP and yield. Results also indicate that seasonal dynamics of yield and remaining small-scale site-to-site variability of NPP are driven by processes not yet implemented in the model or reflected in the input data. The new sub-canopy structure and phenology and allocation functions in CLM-Palm allow exploring the effects of tropical land-use change, from natural ecosystems to oil palm plantations, on carbon, water and energy cycles and regional climate.

Breeding density, fine-scale tracking, and large-scale modeling reveal the regional distribution of four seabird species.

PubMed

Wakefield, Ewan D; Owen, Ellie; Baer, Julia; Carroll, Matthew J; Daunt, Francis; Dodd, Stephen G; Green, Jonathan A; Guilford, Tim; Mavor, Roddy A; Miller, Peter I; Newell, Mark A; Newton, Stephen F; Robertson, Gail S; Shoji, Akiko; Soanes, Louise M; Votier, Stephen C; Wanless, Sarah; Bolton, Mark

2017-10-01

Population-level estimates of species' distributions can reveal fundamental ecological processes and facilitate conservation. However, these may be difficult to obtain for mobile species, especially colonial central-place foragers (CCPFs; e.g., bats, corvids, social insects), because it is often impractical to determine the provenance of individuals observed beyond breeding sites. Moreover, some CCPFs, especially in the marine realm (e.g., pinnipeds, turtles, and seabirds) are difficult to observe because they range tens to ten thousands of kilometers from their colonies. It is hypothesized that the distribution of CCPFs depends largely on habitat availability and intraspecific competition. Modeling these effects may therefore allow distributions to be estimated from samples of individual spatial usage. Such data can be obtained for an increasing number of species using tracking technology. However, techniques for estimating population-level distributions using the telemetry data are poorly developed. This is of concern because many marine CCPFs, such as seabirds, are threatened by anthropogenic activities. Here, we aim to estimate the distribution at sea of four seabird species, foraging from approximately 5,500 breeding sites in Britain and Ireland. To do so, we GPS-tracked a sample of 230 European Shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis, 464 Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, 178 Common Murres Uria aalge, and 281 Razorbills Alca torda from 13, 20, 12, and 14 colonies, respectively. Using Poisson point process habitat use models, we show that distribution at sea is dependent on (1) density-dependent competition among sympatric conspecifics (all species) and parapatric conspecifics (Kittiwakes and Murres); (2) habitat accessibility and coastal geometry, such that birds travel further from colonies with limited access to the sea; and (3) regional habitat availability. Using these models, we predict space use by birds from unobserved colonies and thereby map the distribution at sea of each species at both the colony and regional level. Space use by all four species' British breeding populations is concentrated in the coastal waters of Scotland, highlighting the need for robust conservation measures in this area. The techniques we present are applicable to any CCPF. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Seismic Characterization of Basalt Topography at Two Candidate Sites for the INL Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeff Sondrup; Gail Heath; Trent Armstrong

2011-04-01

This report presents the seismic refraction results from the depth to bed rock surveys for two areas being considered for the Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste (RH-LLW) disposal facility at the Idaho National Laboratory. The first area (Site 5) surveyed is located southwest of the Advanced Test Reactor Complex and the second (Site 34) is located west of Lincoln Boulevard near the southwest corner of the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC). At Site 5, large area and smaller-scale detailed surveys were performed. At Site 34, a large area survey was performed. The purpose of the surveys was to define themore » topography of the interface between the surficial alluvium and underlying basalt. Seismic data were first collected and processed using seismic refraction tomographic inversion. Three-dimensional images for both sites were rendered from the data to image the depth and velocities of the subsurface layers. Based on the interpreted top of basalt data at Site 5, a more detailed survey was conducted to refine depth to basalt. This report briefly covers relevant issues in the collection, processing and inversion of the seismic refraction data and in the imaging process. Included are the parameters for inversion and result rendering and visualization such as the inclusion of physical features. Results from the processing effort presented in this report include fence diagrams of the earth model, for the large area surveys and iso-velocity surfaces and cross sections from the detailed survey.« less

Evaluation of spatial models to predict vulnerability of forest birds to brood parasitism by cowbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gustafson, E.J.; Knutson, M.G.; Niemi, G.J.; Friberg, M.

2002-01-01

We constructed alternative spatial models at two scales to predict Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism rates from land cover maps. The local-scale models tested competing hypotheses about the relationship between cowbird parasitism and distance of host nests from a forest edge (forest-nonforest boundary). The landscape models tested competing hypotheses about how landscape features (e.g., forests, agricultural fields) interact to determine rates of cowbird parasitism. The models incorporate spatial neighborhoods with a radius of 2.5 km in their formulation, reflecting the scale of the majority of cowbird commuting activity. Field data on parasitism by cowbirds (parasitism rate and number of cowbird eggs per nest) were collected at 28 sites in the Driftless Area Ecoregion of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa and were compared to the predictions of the alternative models. At the local scale, there was a significant positive relationship between cowbird parasitism and mean distance of nest sites from the forest edge. At the landscape scale, the best fitting models were the forest-dependent and forest-fragmentation-dependent models, in which more heavily forested and less fragmented landscapes had higher parasitism rates. However, much of the explanatory power of these models results from the inclusion of the local-scale relationship in these models. We found lower rates of cowbird parasitism than did most Midwestern studies, and we identified landscape patterns of cowbird parasitism that are opposite to those reported in several other studies of Midwestern songbirds. We caution that cowbird parasitism patterns can be unpredictable, depending upon ecoregional location and the spatial extent, and that our models should be tested in other ecoregions before they are applied there. Our study confirms that cowbird biology has a strong spatial component, and that improved spatial models applied at multiple spatial scales will be required to predict the effects of landscape and forest management on cowbird parasitism of forest birds.

Global-scale high-resolution ( 1 km) modelling of mean, maximum and minimum annual streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark; Hendriks, Jan; Beusen, Arthur; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke

2017-04-01

Quantifying mean, maximum and minimum annual flow (AF) of rivers at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. AF metrics can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict AF metrics based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, so far, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. We developed global-scale regression models that quantify mean, maximum and minimum AF as function of catchment area and catchment-averaged slope, elevation, and mean, maximum and minimum annual precipitation and air temperature. We then used these models to obtain global 30 arc-seconds (˜ 1 km) maps of mean, maximum and minimum AF for each year from 1960 through 2015, based on a newly developed hydrologically conditioned digital elevation model. We calibrated our regression models based on observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from about 4,000 catchments worldwide, ranging from 100 to 106 km2 in size, and validated them against independent measurements as well as the output of a number of process-based global hydrological models (GHMs). The variance explained by our regression models ranged up to 90% and the performance of the models compared well with the performance of existing GHMs. Yet, our AF maps provide a level of spatial detail that cannot yet be achieved by current GHMs.

Reactive transport of uranium in fractured crystalline rock: Upscaling in time and distance

DOE PAGES

Dittrich, Timothy M.; Reimus, Paul W.

2015-09-29

In this study, batch adsorption and breakthrough column experiments were conducted to evaluate uranium transport through altered material that fills fractures in a granite rock system at the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland at pH 6.9 and 7.9. The role of adsorption and desorption kinetics was evaluated with reactive transport modeling by comparing one-, two-, and three-site models. Emphasis was placed on describing long desorption tails that are important for upscaling in time and distance. The effect of increasing pH in injection solutions was also evaluated. For pH 6.9, a three-site model with forward rate constants between 0.07 and 0.8more » ml g –1 h –1, reverse rate constants between 0.001 and 0.06 h –1, and site densities of 1.3, 0.104, and 0.026 μmol g –1 for ‘weak/fast’, ‘strong/slow’, and ‘very strong/very slow’ sites provided the best fits. For pH 7.9, a three-site model with forward rate constants between 0.05 and 0.8 mL g –1 h –1, reverse rate constants between 0.001 and 0.6 h –1, and site densities of 1.3, 0.039, and 0.013 μmol g –1 for a ‘weak/fast’, ‘strong/slow’, and ‘very strong/very slow’ sites provided the best fits. Column retardation coefficients (R d) were 80 for pH 6.9 and 10.3 for pH 7.9. Model parameters determined from the batch and column experiments were used in 50 year large-scale simulations for continuous and pulse injections and indicated that a three-site model is necessary at pH 6.9, although a K d-type equilibrium partition model with one-site was adequate for large scale predictions at pH 7.9. Batch experiments were useful for predicting early breakthrough times in the columns while column experiments helped differentiate the relative importance of sorption sites and desorption rate constants on transport.« less

Local Scale Radiobrightness Modeling During the Intensive Observing Period-4 of the Cold Land Processes Experiment-1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, E.; Tedesco, M.; de Roo, R.; England, A. W.; Gu, H.; Pham, H.; Boprie, D.; Graf, T.; Koike, T.; Armstrong, R.; Brodzik, M.; Hardy, J.; Cline, D.

2004-12-01

The NASA Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX-1) was designed to provide microwave remote sensing observations and ground truth for studies of snow and frozen ground remote sensing, particularly issues related to scaling. CLPX-1 was conducted in 2002 and 2003 in Colorado, USA. One of the goals of the experiment was to test the capabilities of microwave emission models at different scales. Initial forward model validation work has concentrated on the Local-Scale Observation Site (LSOS), a 0.8~ha study site consisting of open meadows separated by trees where the most detailed measurements were made of snow depth and temperature, density, and grain size profiles. Results obtained in the case of the 3rd Intensive Observing Period (IOP3) period (February, 2003, dry snow) suggest that a model based on Dense Medium Radiative Transfer (DMRT) theory is able to model the recorded brightness temperatures using snow parameters derived from field measurements. This paper focuses on the ability of forward DMRT modelling, combined with snowpack measurements, to reproduce the radiobrightness signatures observed by the University of Michigan's Truck-Mounted Radiometer System (TMRS) at 19 and 37~GHz during the 4th IOP (IOP4) in March, 2003. Unlike in IOP3, conditions during IOP4 include both wet and dry periods, providing a valuable test of DMRT model performance. In addition, a comparison will be made for the one day of coincident observations by the University of Tokyo's Ground-Based Microwave Radiometer-7 (GBMR-7) and the TMRS. The plot-scale study in this paper establishes a baseline of DMRT performance for later studies at successively larger scales. And these scaling studies will help guide the choice of future snow retrieval algorithms and the design of future Cold Lands observing systems.

Online-to-offline models in HIV service delivery.

PubMed

Anand, Tarandeep; Nitpolprasert, Chattiya; Phanuphak, Nittaya

2017-09-01

Half the world's population has access to Internet and technologies, and utilization is near-ubiquitous among providers and key populations. Despite being so well connected; identifying, reaching and linking vulnerable populations to HIV clinical services remains a global challenge. This review highlights the emerging online-to-offline (O2O) models, their potential in scaling up services, and evaluating impact, and implications for future research. Globally, four major types of O2O models have been implemented, primarily in the West and Asia, especially among MSM and transgender women. These models have varying levels of impact in terms of reach, engagement, participation, linkage, and ability to track and monitor participants, and assess outcomes. Those integrated with offline sites enable seamless transition, dramatically reduce the O2O linkage time and demonstrate high linkage success (>73%). O2O models are ideal for at-risk, stigmatized, criminalized populations and for scaling-up biomedical prevention interventions such as preexposure and postexposure prophylaxis. O2O models represent novel and powerful solutions to reverse the pandemic and could help fill significant programmatic gaps in tracking individuals through HIV cascades. Providers, especially in resource-limited settings, could choose between a variety of current approaches highlighted in this review and employ no-cost or cost-effective technologies to transform their traditional models and leverage O2O models.

Probabilistic inference of ecohydrological parameters using observations from point to satellite scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassiouni, Maoya; Higgins, Chad W.; Still, Christopher J.; Good, Stephen P.

2018-06-01

Vegetation controls on soil moisture dynamics are challenging to measure and translate into scale- and site-specific ecohydrological parameters for simple soil water balance models. We hypothesize that empirical probability density functions (pdfs) of relative soil moisture or soil saturation encode sufficient information to determine these ecohydrological parameters. Further, these parameters can be estimated through inverse modeling of the analytical equation for soil saturation pdfs, derived from the commonly used stochastic soil water balance framework. We developed a generalizable Bayesian inference framework to estimate ecohydrological parameters consistent with empirical soil saturation pdfs derived from observations at point, footprint, and satellite scales. We applied the inference method to four sites with different land cover and climate assuming (i) an annual rainfall pattern and (ii) a wet season rainfall pattern with a dry season of negligible rainfall. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of the analytical model's fit to soil observations ranged from 0.89 to 0.99. The coefficient of variation of posterior parameter distributions ranged from < 1 to 15 %. The parameter identifiability was not significantly improved in the more complex seasonal model; however, small differences in parameter values indicate that the annual model may have absorbed dry season dynamics. Parameter estimates were most constrained for scales and locations at which soil water dynamics are more sensitive to the fitted ecohydrological parameters of interest. In these cases, model inversion converged more slowly but ultimately provided better goodness of fit and lower uncertainty. Results were robust using as few as 100 daily observations randomly sampled from the full records, demonstrating the advantage of analyzing soil saturation pdfs instead of time series to estimate ecohydrological parameters from sparse records. Our work combines modeling and empirical approaches in ecohydrology and provides a simple framework to obtain scale- and site-specific analytical descriptions of soil moisture dynamics consistent with soil moisture observations.

A Bayesian-Based Novel Methodology to Generate Reliable Site Response Mapping Sensitive to Data Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, A.; Goto, H.

2017-12-01

The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake caused severe damage in many areas further inside the mainland because of site-amplification. Furukawa district in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan recorded significant spatial differences in ground motion even at sub-kilometer scales. The site responses in the damage zone far exceeded the levels in the hazard maps. A reason why the mismatch occurred is that mapping follow only the mean value at the measurement locations with no regard to the data uncertainties and thus are not always reliable. Our research objective is to develop a methodology to incorporate data uncertainties in mapping and propose a reliable map. The methodology is based on a hierarchical Bayesian modeling of normally-distributed site responses in space where the mean (μ), site-specific variance (σ2) and between-sites variance(s2) parameters are treated as unknowns with a prior distribution. The observation data is artificially created site responses with varying means and variances for 150 seismic events across 50 locations in one-dimensional space. Spatially auto-correlated random effects were added to the mean (μ) using a conditionally autoregressive (CAR) prior. The inferences on the unknown parameters are done using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods from the posterior distribution. The goal is to find reliable estimates of μ sensitive to uncertainties. During initial trials, we observed that the tau (=1/s2) parameter of CAR prior controls the μ estimation. Using a constraint, s = 1/(k×σ), five spatial models with varying k-values were created. We define reliability to be measured by the model likelihood and propose the maximum likelihood model to be highly reliable. The model with maximum likelihood was selected using a 5-fold cross-validation technique. The results show that the maximum likelihood model (μ*) follows the site-specific mean at low uncertainties and converges to the model-mean at higher uncertainties (Fig.1). This result is highly significant as it successfully incorporates the effect of data uncertainties in mapping. This novel approach can be applied to any research field using mapping techniques. The methodology is now being applied to real records from a very dense seismic network in Furukawa district, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan to generate a reliable map of the site responses.

Plant identity and shallow soil moisture are primary drivers of stomatal conductance in the savannas of Kruger National Park.

PubMed

Tobin, Rebecca L; Kulmatiski, Andrew

2018-01-01

Our goal was to describe stomatal conductance (gs) and the site-scale environmental parameters that best predict gs in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa. Dominant grass and woody species were measured over two growing seasons in each of four study sites that represented the natural factorial combination of mean annual precipitation [wet (750 mm) or dry (450 mm)] and soil type (clay or sand) found in KNP. A machine-learning (random forest) model was used to describe gs as a function of plant type (species or functional group) and site-level environmental parameters (CO2, season, shortwave radiation, soil type, soil moisture, time of day, vapor pressure deficit and wind speed). The model explained 58% of the variance among 6,850 gs measurements. Species, or plant functional group, and shallow (0-20 cm) soil moisture had the greatest effect on gs. Atmospheric drivers and soil type were less important. When parameterized with three years of observed environmental data, the model estimated mean daytime growing season gs as 68 and 157 mmol m-2 sec-1 for grasses and woody plants, respectively. The model produced here could, for example, be used to estimate gs and evapotranspiration in KNP under varying climate conditions. Results from this field-based study highlight the role of species identity and shallow soil moisture as primary drivers of gs in savanna ecosystems of KNP.

Detecting early warning signals of tree mortality using multi-scale satellite data: a case study in boreal North Americ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, B. M.; Hogg, E. H.; Solvik, K.; Ju, J.; Masek, J. G.; Michaelian, M.; Berner, L. T.; Goetz, S. J.

2017-12-01

Tree mortality from drought and biotic infestations represents a fundamental transition for forests at the level of an individual tree, forest stand, and even landscape. Tree mortality precipitates a cascade of ecosystem impacts and has been increasing across the continents, including in the boreal zone where climate changes and feedbacks to the Earth system are relatively large. Despite the importance for science and management communities, our ability to forecast tree mortality at landscape to continental scales is limited. However, two independent information streams have the potential to inform and significantly improve mortality forecasts. Tree-level productivity dynamics are known to precede mortality in predictable ways years to decades before death. Plot-level productivity, in turn, has been related to satellite-based indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Here we link these two data sources to show that early warning signals of mortality are evident in several NDVI-based metrics up to 20 years before death. We focus on two repeat forest inventories and three NDVI products across western boreal North America where productivity and mortality dynamics are influenced by periodic drought. These data sources capture a range in forest conditions and spatial resolution to highlight the sensitivity and limitations of our approach. Overall, results indicate potential to use satellite NDVI for early warning signals of mortality. Relationships are broadly consistent across inventories, species, and spatial resolutions, although coarse-scale imagery in the heterogeneous aspen parkland was of limited utility. Longer-term NDVI data and annually re-measured sites with high mortality levels generate the strongest signals, although we still found robust relationships at sites re-measured at a typical five-year frequency. The approach and relationships developed here can be used as a basis for improving forest mortality models and monitoring systems.

Large Scale Ice Water Path and 3-D Ice Water Content

DOE Data Explorer

Liu, Guosheng

2008-01-15

Cloud ice water concentration is one of the most important, yet poorly observed, cloud properties. Developing physical parameterizations used in general circulation models through single-column modeling is one of the key foci of the ARM program. In addition to the vertical profiles of temperature, water vapor and condensed water at the model grids, large-scale horizontal advective tendencies of these variables are also required as forcing terms in the single-column models. Observed horizontal advection of condensed water has not been available because the radar/lidar/radiometer observations at the ARM site are single-point measurement, therefore, do not provide horizontal distribution of condensed water. The intention of this product is to provide large-scale distribution of cloud ice water by merging available surface and satellite measurements. The satellite cloud ice water algorithm uses ARM ground-based measurements as baseline, produces datasets for 3-D cloud ice water distributions in a 10 deg x 10 deg area near ARM site. The approach of the study is to expand a (surface) point measurement to an (satellite) areal measurement. That is, this study takes the advantage of the high quality cloud measurements at the point of ARM site. We use the cloud characteristics derived from the point measurement to guide/constrain satellite retrieval, then use the satellite algorithm to derive the cloud ice water distributions within an area, i.e., 10 deg x 10 deg centered at ARM site.

Measurement of Global Radiation using Photovoltaic Panels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veroustraete, Frank; Bronders, Jan; Lefevre, Filip; Mensink, Clemens

2014-05-01

The Vito Unit - Environmental and Spatial Aspects (RMA) - for many of its models makes use of global solar radiation. From this viewpoint and also from the notion that this variable is seldom measured or available at the local scale and at high multi-temporal frequencies, it can be stated that many models are fed with low quality estimates of global solar radiation at the local to regional scales. A project was initiated called SUNSPIDER with the following objective. To make use of photovoltaic solar panels to measure solar radiation at the highest spatio-temporal resolution, from the local to the regional scales and from minutes to years. To integrate the measured solar fields in different application fields like, plant systems and agriculture, agro-meteorology and hydrology and last but not least solar energy applications. In Belgium about 250.000 PV installations have been built leading to about 6% electric power supply from photovoltaics on a yearly basis. Last year in June, the supply reached a peak of more than 20% of the total power input on the Belgian grid. A database of Belgian residential solar panel sites will be compiled. The database will serve as an input to an inverted PV model to be able to perform radiation calculations specifically for each of the validated panel sites based on minutely logged power data. Data acquisition for these sites will start each time a site is validated and hence imported in the database. Keywords: Photovoltaic Panels; PV modelling; Global Radiation.

Early Eocene to Late Miocene Variations in the South Atlantic CCD: Constraints from the Walvis Ridge Depth-Transect (ODP Leg 208)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsey, M. M.; Schellenberg, S. A.

2006-12-01

Carbonate saturation profiles are complex and dynamic products of processes operating on spatiotemporal scales from the "short-term local" (e.g. carbonate export production, carbonate ion concentration) to the "long- term global" (e.g. carbonate-silicate weathering, shelf:basin carbonate partitioning). Thus, a refined history of carbonate saturation may provide insight on global carbon-cycle dynamics. An established, if crude, proxy for reconstructing carbonate saturation is the wt% carbonate content of pelagic sediments, where <20 wt% is ascribed to deposition below the carbonate compensation depth (CCD). A number of now classic works (e.g. Berger and Roth, 1975; van Andel, 1977) established first-order and presumably global Cenozoic CCD fluctuations. The Walvis Ridge depth-transect of ODP Leg 208 represents an excellent opportunity to refine our understanding of the South Atlantic Cenozoic CCD. Wt% carbonate determinations (n = 299) through the Early Eocene to Late Miocene section at Site 1267 are significantly correlated with associated natural gamma ray values (r2 = 0.92). This relationship was used to produce a cm-scale synthetic wt% carbonate record ordinated in the time-domain via the ship-board age-model and in the paleodepth-domain via Sclater and Parsons (1977) crustal age-depth relationship. The Site 1267 record shows good general agreement with previous low-resolution (>10^{5-6} yr) CCD reconstructions and correlates relatively well with estimates of eustatic sea level fluctuations. Ongoing research expands this general approach to shallower and deeper ODP Leg 208 sites to provide greater constraints on the history of the South Atlantic CCD. These data, combined with other proxies (e.g. planktonic foraminifer fragmentation, stable isotopes) and placed within evolving Leg 208 age-models, will provide valuable constraints on cyclic and secular fluctuations in the South Atlantic carbonate saturation profile and their relation to various components of the earth system (e.g. pCO2, sea level, tectonics).

Progress in understanding the neuronal SNARE function and its regulation.

PubMed

Yoon, T-Y; Shin, Y-K

2009-02-01

Vesicle budding and fusion underlies many essential biochemical deliveries in eukaryotic cells, and its core fusion machinery is thought to be built on one protein family named soluble N-ethylmaleimide-sensitive factor attachment protein receptor (SNARE). Recent technical advances based on site-directed fluorescence labelling and nano-scale detection down to the single-molecule level rapidly unveiled the protein and the lipid intermediates along the fusion pathway as well as the molecular actions of fusion effectors. Here we summarize these new exciting findings in context with a new mechanistic model that reconciles two existing fusion models: the proteinaceous pore model and the hemifusion model. Further, we attempt to locate the points of action for the fusion effectors along the fusion pathway and to delineate the energetic interplay between the SNARE complexes and the fusion effectors.

Fire rehabilitation decisions at landscape scales: utilizing state-and-transition models developed through disturbance response grouping of ecological sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recognizing the utility of ecological sites and the associated state-and-transition model (STM) for decision support, the Bureau of Land Management in Nevada partnered with Nevada NRCS and the University of Nevada, Reno (UNR) in 2009 with the goal of creating a team that could (1) expedite developme...

Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of particulate matter concentrations in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manga, Edna; Awang, Norhashidah

2016-06-01

This article presents an application of a Bayesian spatio-temporal Gaussian process (GP) model on particulate matter concentrations from Peninsular Malaysia. We analyze daily PM10 concentration levels from 35 monitoring sites in June and July 2011. The spatiotemporal model set in a Bayesian hierarchical framework allows for inclusion of informative covariates, meteorological variables and spatiotemporal interactions. Posterior density estimates of the model parameters are obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Preliminary data analysis indicate information on PM10 levels at sites classified as industrial locations could explain part of the space time variations. We include the site-type indicator in our modeling efforts. Results of the parameter estimates for the fitted GP model show significant spatio-temporal structure and positive effect of the location-type explanatory variable. We also compute some validation criteria for the out of sample sites that show the adequacy of the model for predicting PM10 at unmonitored sites.

An Integrated Assessment of Location-Dependent Scaling for Microalgae Biofuel Production Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Andre M.; Abodeely, Jared; Skaggs, Richard

Successful development of a large-scale microalgae-based biofuels industry requires comprehensive analysis and understanding of the feedstock supply chain—from facility siting/design through processing/upgrading of the feedstock to a fuel product. The evolution from pilot-scale production facilities to energy-scale operations presents many multi-disciplinary challenges, including a sustainable supply of water and nutrients, operational and infrastructure logistics, and economic competitiveness with petroleum-based fuels. These challenges are addressed in part by applying the Integrated Assessment Framework (IAF)—an integrated multi-scale modeling, analysis, and data management suite—to address key issues in developing and operating an open-pond facility by analyzing how variability and uncertainty in space andmore » time affect algal feedstock production rates, and determining the site-specific “optimum” facility scale to minimize capital and operational expenses. This approach explicitly and systematically assesses the interdependence of biofuel production potential, associated resource requirements, and production system design trade-offs. The IAF was applied to a set of sites previously identified as having the potential to cumulatively produce 5 billion-gallons/year in the southeastern U.S. and results indicate costs can be reduced by selecting the most effective processing technology pathway and scaling downstream processing capabilities to fit site-specific growing conditions, available resources, and algal strains.« less

Disentangling Climate and Land-use Impacts on Grassland Carbon and Water Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.

2014-12-01

Regional climate and land cover interact in a complex, non-linear manner to alter the local cycling of mass and energy. It is often difficult to isolate the role of either mechanism on the resultant fluxes. Here, we attempt to isolate these mechanisms through the use of network of 4 Ameriflux eddy covariance towers installed over different land cover and land use classes along a pronounced rainfall gradient. The land cover types include: annually burned C4 grassland, a 4 year burn site experiencing woody encroachment, an abandoned agricultural field and a new perennial agricultural site. We investigated the impact of rainfall variability, drought, and heat waves on the water and carbon budgets using data analysis, remote sensing, and modeling approaches. In addition, we have established a network of mini-meteorological stations at the annually and 4-year burn sites to assess micro-scale variability within the footprints of the towers as a function of topographic position, soil depth and soil water availability. Through the use of a wavelet multiscale decomposition and information theory metrics, we have isolated the role of environmental factors (temperature, humidity, soil moisture, etc.) on the fluxes across the different sites. By applying a similar analysis to model output, we can assess the ability of land-surface models to recreate the observed sensitity. Results indicate the utility of a network of measurement systems used in conjunction with land surface modeling and time series analysis to assess differential impacts to similar regional scale climate forcings. Implications for the role of land cover class in regional and global scale modeling systems will also be discussed.