Measuring the consequences of wildfires in a Bayesian network with vulnerability and exposure indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papakosta, Panagiota; Botzler, Sebastian; Krug, Kai; Straub, Daniel

2013-04-01

Mediterranean climate type areas have always been experiencing fire events. However, population growth and expansion of urban centers into wildland areas during the 20th century (expansion of wildland-urban interface) has increased the threat to humans and their activities. Life and property losses, damage on infrastructure and crops, and forest degradation are some of the damages caused by wildfires. Although fires repeatedly occur along the Mediterranean basin, not all areas have experienced severe consequences. The extent of damage by wildfires is influenced by several factors, such as population density, vegetation type, topography, weather conditions and social preparedness [1]. Wildfire consequence estimation by means of vulnerability and exposure indicators is an essential part of wildfire risk analysis. Vulnerability indicators express the conditions that increase the susceptibility of a site to the impact of wildfires and exposure indicators describe the elements at risk [2],[3]. Appropriate indicators to measure wildfire vulnerability and exposure can vary with scale and site. The consequences can be classified into economic, social, environmental and safety, and they can be tangible (human life losses, buildings damaged) or intangible (damage of cultural heritage site). As a consequence, a variety of approaches exist and there is a lack of generalized unified easy-to-implement methodologies. In this study we present a methodology for measuring consequences of wildfires in a Mediterranean area in the mesoscale (1 km² spatial resolution). Vulnerability and exposure indicators covering all consequence levels are identified and their interrelations are stressed. Variables such as building materials, roofing type, and average building values are included in the economic vulnerability level. Safety exposure is expressed by population density, demographic structure, street density and distance to closest fire station. Environmental vulnerability of protected areas and rare species is also included. Presence of cultural heritage sites, power stations and power line network influence social exposure. The conceptual framework is demonstrated with a Bayesian Network (BN). The BN model incorporates empirical observation, physical models and expert knowledge; it can also explicitly account for uncertainty in the indicators. The proposed model is applied to the island of Cyprus. Maps support the demonstration of results. [1] Keeley, J.E.; Bond, W.J.; Bradstock, R.A.; Pausas, J.G.; Rundel, P.W. (2012): Fire in Mediterranean ecosystems: ecology, evolution and management. Cambridge University Press, New York, USA. [2] UN/ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2004): Living with Risk: A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives, Geneva, UN Publications. [3] Birkmann, J. (2006): Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University Press, Tokyo, Japan.

Assessment of physical vulnerability of buildings and analysis of landslide risk at the municipal scale: application to the Loures municipality, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillard-Gonçalves, C.; Zêzere, J. L.; Pereira, S.; Garcia, R. A. C.

2016-02-01

This study offers a semi-quantitative assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings to landslides in a Portuguese municipality (Loures), as well as the quantitative landslide risk analysis computed as the product of the landslide hazard by the vulnerability and the economic value of the buildings. The hazard was assessed by combining the spatiotemporal probability and the frequency-magnitude relationship of the landslides. The physical vulnerability assessment was based on an inquiry of a pool of European landslide experts and a sub-pool of landslide experts who know the study area, and the answers' variability was assessed with standard deviation. The average vulnerability of the basic geographic entities was compared by changing the map unit and applying the vulnerability to all the buildings of a test site, the inventory of which was listed on the field. The economic value was calculated using an adaptation of the Portuguese Tax Services approach, and the risk was computed for different landslide magnitudes and different spatiotemporal probabilities. As a rule, the vulnerability values given by the sub-pool of experts who know the study area are higher than those given by the European experts, namely for the high-magnitude landslides. The obtained vulnerabilities vary from 0.2 to 1 as a function of the structural building types and the landslide magnitude, and are maximal for 10 and 20 m landslide depths. However, the highest risk was found for the landslides that are 3 m deep, because these landslides combine a relatively high frequency in the Loures municipality with a substantial potential damage.

Microtremor survey to investigate seismic vulnerability around the Seulimum Fault, Aceh Besar-Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simanjuntak, Andrean V. H.; Muksin, Umar; Rahmayani, Febrina

2018-05-01

The Seulimeum Fault has generated inland earthquake with magnitude larger than M 6.5 that destroyed houses in the Lamteuba and Krueng Raya Villages. Earthquakes along the Seulimeum Fault are mostly right lateral strike-slip characterizing the Fault. The understanding of the seismic vulnerability around the highly populated Banda Aceh City and the villages in Aceh Besar is therefore very important since the city, and the villages are very close to the Seulimeum Fault. A microtremor survey has been conducted to investigate seismic vulnerability in the area closed to the Seulimeum Fault. The waveforms of the microtremor have been recorded in Lamteuba and Kreung Raya villages, Aceh Besar at 20 sites for 7 days from August 14, 2017 with the interval of measurement of 1 km. The waveforms recorded for 30 minutes at each site by using one Taurus Seismometer in miniseed format. The data has been analyzing by using Geopsy to obtain the Horizontal-Vertical Spectral Ratio for each site. The seismic vulnerability is considered to be high if the value of the Horizontal-Vertical Spectral Ratio is high. The HVSR values are then interpolated to obtain the seismic vulnerability map. The preliminary result shows high seismic vulnerability in the area around the first site.

6 CFR 27.225 - Site security plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... meet the following standards: (1) Address each vulnerability identified in the facility's Security Vulnerability Assessment, and identify and describe the security measures to address each such vulnerability; (2... updates, revises or otherwise alters its Security Vulnerability Assessment pursuant to § 27.215(d), the...

Security and Vulnerability Assessment of Social Media Sites: An Exploratory Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhao, Jensen; Zhao, Sherry Y.

2015-01-01

While the growing popularity of social media has brought many benefits to society, it has also resulted in privacy and security threats. The authors assessed the security and vulnerability of 50 social media sites. The findings indicate that most sites (a) posted privacy and security policies but only a minority stated clearly their execution of…

A Matter of Life or Death: Untangling the Coupled Roles of Behavior, Microclimate and Physiological Polymorphism in Governing Vulnerability of Intertidal Snails to Heat Stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Y.; Li, X.; Choi, F.; Willams, G.; Somero, G. N.; Helmuth, B.

2016-12-01

Changing patterns of species' biogeographic distributions are driven by cumulative effects of much smaller scale processes. Specifically, vulnerability of animals to thermal stress is the result of physiological sensitivities to body temperature (Tb), local microclimatic conditions, and abilities to anticipate extreme conditions and move to cooler refugia. These variables have rarely been quantified simultaneously over large geographic scales. We analyzed the thermal tolerances of three species of rocky intertidal snails from eight sites spanning 11.5 degrees of latitude along the Chinese coast. Using a biophysical model, we estimated potential Tb in sun-exposed and shaded microhabitats for all species at these sites for 30 years. We then compared maximum predicted Tb against the temperatures at which cardiac function was impaired (Arrhenius Break Temperatures, ABT) and lethal limits were reached (cardiac Flat Line Temperatures, FLT) to calculate thermal Safety Margins (TSM) for normal physiological function (TSMABT) and heat death (TSMFLT). Regular exceedance of FLT in sun-exposed microhabitats was predicted for only one site in the middle of the geographic gradient. However, ABT was exceeded at sun-exposed microhabitats in most sites, suggesting significant physiological impairment for snails that fail to move into the shade. An autocorrelation analysis of snail Tb showed that predictability of extreme temperatures was lowest at the hottest sites, an indication that reliance on behavioral thermoregulation may be a risky strategy. Observed large differences in ABT and FLT among conspecifics emphasize the critical role of physiological polymorphisms in governing the vulnerability of populations to heat stress.

Site- and bond-percolation thresholds in K_{n,n}-based lattices: Vulnerability of quantum annealers to random qubit and coupler failures on chimera topologies.

PubMed

Melchert, O; Katzgraber, Helmut G; Novotny, M A

2016-04-01

We estimate the critical thresholds of bond and site percolation on nonplanar, effectively two-dimensional graphs with chimeralike topology. The building blocks of these graphs are complete and symmetric bipartite subgraphs of size 2n, referred to as K_{n,n} graphs. For the numerical simulations we use an efficient union-find-based algorithm and employ a finite-size scaling analysis to obtain the critical properties for both bond and site percolation. We report the respective percolation thresholds for different sizes of the bipartite subgraph and verify that the associated universality class is that of standard two-dimensional percolation. For the canonical chimera graph used in the D-Wave Systems Inc. quantum annealer (n=4), we discuss device failure in terms of network vulnerability, i.e., we determine the critical fraction of qubits and couplers that can be absent due to random failures prior to losing large-scale connectivity throughout the device.

Assessing the geomorphological vulnerability of arid beach-dune systems.

PubMed

Peña-Alonso, Carolina; Gallego-Fernández, Juan B; Hernández-Calvento, Luis; Hernández-Cordero, Antonio I; Ariza, Eduard

2018-09-01

In this study, an arid dune vulnerability index (ADVI) is developed using a system of indicators to evaluate the geomorphological vulnerability of beach-dune systems of arid regions. The indicators are comprised of three analytical dimensions (susceptibility, exposure and resilience) and their corresponding sub-indices and variables and were assessed for eleven sites located in four aeolian sedimentary systems of the Canary archipelago (Spain). The selected sites have varying geomorphological characteristics, vegetation types, marine and wind conditions and human pressure degrees, and have seen different trends in their geomorphological evolution since 1960. The eleven sites were separated into three groups according to their different conservation status and different management needs, and the results of the ADVI dimensions and variables were compared and analyzed for these three groups. In general, the results obtained in the analyzed sites reveal that susceptibility and exposure dimensions are related to low-moderate values, while resilience was high. Only one site presented a state of critical vulnerability, due to the loss of its capacity to maintain its geomorphological function in recent decades. Given the lack of knowledge about geomorphological vulnerability processes in foredunes of arid regions, ADVI is the first approximation to geomorphological diagnostic in these environments and can be useful for managers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identification of dominating factors affecting vadose zone vulnerability by a simulation method

PubMed Central

Li, Juan; Xi, Beidou; Cai, Wutian; Yang, Yang; Jia, Yongfeng; Li, Xiang; Lv, Yonggao; Lv, Ningqing; Huan, Huan; Yang, Jinjin

2017-01-01

The characteristics of vadose zone vulnerability dominating factors (VDFs) are closely related to the migration and transformation mechanisms of contaminants in the vadose zone, which directly affect the state of the contaminants percolating to the groundwater. This study analyzes the hydrogeological profile of the pore water regions in the vadose zone, and conceptualizes the vadose zone as single lithologic, double lithologic, or multi lithologic. To accurately determine how the location of the pollution source influences the groundwater, we classify the permeabilities (thicknesses) of different media into clay-layer and non-clay-layer permeabilities (thicknesses), and introduce the maximum pollution thickness. Meanwhile, the physicochemical reactions of the contaminants in the vadose zone are represented by the soil adsorption and soil degradability. The VDFs are determined from the factors and parameters in groundwater vulnerability assessment. The VDFs are identified and sequenced in simulations and a sensitivity analysis. When applied to three polluted sites in China, the method improved the weighting of factors in groundwater vulnerability assessment, and increased the reliability of predicting groundwater vulnerability to contaminants. PMID:28387232

Development of a coastal dune vulnerability index for Mediterranean ecosystems: A useful tool for coastal managers?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciccarelli, D.; Pinna, M. S.; Alquini, F.; Cogoni, D.; Ruocco, M.; Bacchetta, G.; Sarti, G.; Fenu, G.

2017-03-01

Coastal dune ecosystems have been severely degraded as a result of excessive natural resource exploitation, urbanisation, industrial growth, and worldwide tourism. Coastal management often requires the use of vulnerability indices to facilitate the decision-making process. The main objective of this study was to develop a Mediterranean dune vulnerability index (MDVI) for sandy coasts, starting from the existing dune vulnerability index (DVI) proposed by Garcia-Mora et al. (2001) related to the oceanic coasts. Given that the Mediterranean sandy coasts are quite different from the Atlantic coasts, several adjustments and integrations were introduced. Our proposed index is based on the following five main group of factors: geomorphological conditions of the dune systems (GCD), marine influence (MI), aeolian effect (AE), vegetation condition (VC), and human effect (HE), for a total of 51 variables derived (and adapted) from the bibliography or proposed for the first time in this study. For each coastal site, a total vulnerability index, ranging from 0 (very low vulnerability) to 1 (very high vulnerability), was calculated as the unweighted average of the five partial vulnerability indices. Index computation was applied to 23 coastal dune systems of two different contexts in Italy, i.e. peninsular and continental island territories representative of the W-Mediterranean Basin, in order to compare the dune systems with different geomorphology, shoreline dynamics, and human pressure. In particular, our research addressed the following two questions: (1) Which variables are the most critical for the Italian coastal systems? (2) How can the coastal dune vulnerability index be used to develop appropriate strategies of conservation and management for these ecosystems? Cluster analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling separated the peninsular from the insular sites, both of which were characterised by low to moderate values of vulnerability (0.32 < MDVI < 0.49). The most critical factors for the coastal systems examined in this study were marine negative influence, low stabilising ability of vegetation, and human disturbance. Hence, coastal managers are encouraged to plan specific management actions such as protection of foredunes from marine factors (particularly erosion), to promote dune formation with the reintroduction of native dune builder species and to minimise human pressure where vulnerability depends on these variables.

Using fuzzy logic analysis for siting decisions of infiltration trenches for highway runoff control.

PubMed

Ki, Seo Jin; Ray, Chittaranjan

2014-09-15

Determining optimal locations for best management practices (BMPs), including their field considerations and limitations, plays an important role for effective stormwater management. However, these issues have been often overlooked in modeling studies that focused on downstream water quality benefits. This study illustrates the methodology of locating infiltration trenches at suitable locations from spatial overlay analyses which combine multiple layers that address different aspects of field application into a composite map. Using seven thematic layers for each analysis, fuzzy logic was employed to develop a site suitability map for infiltration trenches, whereas the DRASTIC method was used to produce a groundwater vulnerability map on the island of Oahu, Hawaii, USA. In addition, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), one of the most popular overlay analyses, was used for comparison to fuzzy logic. The results showed that the AHP and fuzzy logic methods developed significantly different index maps in terms of best locations and suitability scores. Specifically, the AHP method provided a maximum level of site suitability due to its inherent aggregation approach of all input layers in a linear equation. The most eligible areas in locating infiltration trenches were determined from the superposition of the site suitability and groundwater vulnerability maps using the fuzzy AND operator. The resulting map successfully balanced qualification criteria for a low risk of groundwater contamination and the best BMP site selection. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the suitability scores were strongly affected by the algorithms embedded in fuzzy logic; therefore, caution is recommended with their use in overlay analysis. Accordingly, this study demonstrates that the fuzzy logic analysis can not only be used to improve spatial decision quality along with other overlay approaches, but also is combined with general water quality models for initial and refined searches for the best locations of BMPs at the sub-basin level. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Building vulnerability to hydro-geomorphic hazards: Estimating damage probability from qualitative vulnerability assessment using logistic regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ettinger, Susanne; Mounaud, Loïc; Magill, Christina; Yao-Lafourcade, Anne-Françoise; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Manville, Vern; Negulescu, Caterina; Zuccaro, Giulio; De Gregorio, Daniela; Nardone, Stefano; Uchuchoque, Juan Alexis Luque; Arguedas, Anita; Macedo, Luisa; Manrique Llerena, Nélida

2016-10-01

The focus of this study is an analysis of building vulnerability through investigating impacts from the 8 February 2013 flash flood event along the Avenida Venezuela channel in the city of Arequipa, Peru. On this day, 124.5 mm of rain fell within 3 h (monthly mean: 29.3 mm) triggering a flash flood that inundated at least 0.4 km2 of urban settlements along the channel, affecting more than 280 buildings, 23 of a total of 53 bridges (pedestrian, vehicle and railway), and leading to the partial collapse of sections of the main road, paralyzing central parts of the city for more than one week. This study assesses the aspects of building design and site specific environmental characteristics that render a building vulnerable by considering the example of a flash flood event in February 2013. A statistical methodology is developed that enables estimation of damage probability for buildings. The applied method uses observed inundation height as a hazard proxy in areas where more detailed hydrodynamic modeling data is not available. Building design and site-specific environmental conditions determine the physical vulnerability. The mathematical approach considers both physical vulnerability and hazard related parameters and helps to reduce uncertainty in the determination of descriptive parameters, parameter interdependency and respective contributions to damage. This study aims to (1) enable the estimation of damage probability for a certain hazard intensity, and (2) obtain data to visualize variations in damage susceptibility for buildings in flood prone areas. Data collection is based on a post-flood event field survey and the analysis of high (sub-metric) spatial resolution images (Pléiades 2012, 2013). An inventory of 30 city blocks was collated in a GIS database in order to estimate the physical vulnerability of buildings. As many as 1103 buildings were surveyed along the affected drainage and 898 buildings were included in the statistical analysis. Univariate and bivariate analyses were applied to better characterize each vulnerability parameter. Multiple corresponding analyses revealed strong relationships between the "Distance to channel or bridges", "Structural building type", "Building footprint" and the observed damage. Logistic regression enabled quantification of the contribution of each explanatory parameter to potential damage, and determination of the significant parameters that express the damage susceptibility of a building. The model was applied 200 times on different calibration and validation data sets in order to examine performance. Results show that 90% of these tests have a success rate of more than 67%. Probabilities (at building scale) of experiencing different damage levels during a future event similar to the 8 February 2013 flash flood are the major outcomes of this study.

6 CFR 27.210 - Submissions schedule.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... in any subsequent Federal Register notice. (2) Security Vulnerability Assessment. Unless otherwise notified, a covered facility must complete and submit a Security Vulnerability Assessment within 90... Department's approval of the facility's Site Security Plan. (2) Security Vulnerability Assessment. Unless...

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

Treesearch

Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

2016-01-01

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

Vulnerability Assessment of Open Source Wireshark and Chrome Browser

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-01

UNLIMITED 5 We spent much of the initial time learning about the logical model that modern HTML5 web browsers support, including how users interact with...are supposed to protect users of that site against cross-site scripting) and the new powerful an all-encompassing HTML5 standard. This vulnerability

Availability of Advanced Breast Imaging at Screening Facilities Serving Vulnerable Populations.

PubMed

Lee, Christoph I; Bogart, Andy; Germino, Jessica C; Goldman, L Elizabeth; Hubbard, Rebecca A; Haas, Jennifer S; Hill, Deirdre A; Tosteson, Anna Na; Alford-Teaster, Jennifer A; DeMartini, Wendy B; Lehman, Constance D; Onega, Tracy L

2016-03-01

Among vulnerable women, unequal access to advanced breast imaging modalities beyond screening mammography may lead to delays in cancer diagnosis and unfavourable outcomes. We aimed to compare on-site availability of advanced breast imaging services (ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging [MRI], and image-guided biopsy) between imaging facilities serving vulnerable patient populations and those serving non-vulnerable populations. 73 imaging facilities across five Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium regional registries in the United States during 2011 and 2012. We examined facility and patient characteristics across a large, national sample of imaging facilities and patients served. We characterized facilities as serving vulnerable populations based on the proportion of mammograms performed on women with lower educational attainment, lower median income, racial/ethnic minority status, and rural residence.We performed multivariable logistic regression to determine relative risks of on-site availability of advanced imaging at facilities serving vulnerable women versus facilities serving non-vulnerable women. Facilities serving vulnerable populations were as likely (Relative risk [RR] for MRI = 0.71, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.42, 1.19; RR for MRI-guided biopsy = 1.07 [0.61, 1.90]; RR for stereotactic biopsy = 1.18 [0.75, 1.85]) or more likely (RR for ultrasound = 1.38 [95% CI 1.09, 1.74]; RR for ultrasound-guided biopsy = 1.67 [1.30, 2.14]) to offer advanced breast imaging services as those serving non-vulnerable populations. Advanced breast imaging services are physically available on-site for vulnerable women in the United States, but it is unknown whether factors such as insurance coverage or out-of-pocket costs might limit their use. © The Author(s) 2015.

Availability of Advanced Breast Imaging at Screening Facilities Serving Vulnerable Populations

PubMed Central

Lee, Christoph I.; Bogart, Andy; Germino, Jessica C.; Goldman, L. Elizabeth; Hubbard, Rebecca A.; Haas, Jennifer S.; Hill, Deirdre A.; Tosteson, Anna N.A.; Alford-Teaster, Jennifer A.; DeMartini, Wendy B.; Lehman, Constance D.; Onega, Tracy L.

2015-01-01

Objective Among vulnerable women, unequal access to advanced breast imaging modalities beyond screening mammography may lead to delays in cancer diagnosis and unfavorable outcomes. We aimed to compare on-site availability of advanced breast imaging services (ultrasound (US), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and image-guided biopsy) between imaging facilities serving vulnerable patient populations and those serving non-vulnerable populations. Setting 73 United States imaging facilities across five Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium regional registries during calendar years 2011–2012. Methods We examined facility and patient characteristics across a large, national sample of imaging facilities and patients served. We characterized facilities as serving vulnerable populations based on the proportion of mammograms performed on women with lower educational attainment, lower median income, racial/ethnic minority status, and rural residence. We performed multivariable logistic regression to determine relative risks of on-site availability of advanced imaging at facilities serving vulnerable women versus facilities serving non-vulnerable women. Results Facilities serving vulnerable populations were as likely (RR for MRI = 0.71 [95% CI 0.42, 1.19]; RR for MRI-guided biopsy = 1.07 [0.61, 1.90]; RR for stereotactic biopsy = 1.18 [0.75, 1.85]) or more likely (RR for US = 1.38 [95% CI 1.09, 1.74]; RR for US-guided biopsy = 1.67 [1.30, 2.14]) to offer advanced breast imaging services as those serving non-vulnerable populations. Conclusions Advanced breast imaging services are physically available on-site for vulnerable women in the United States, but it is unknown whether factors such as insurance coverage or out-of-pocket costs might limit their use. PMID:26078275

Untangling the roles of microclimate, behaviour and physiological polymorphism in governing vulnerability of intertidal snails to heat stress.

PubMed

Dong, Yun-Wei; Li, Xiao-Xu; Choi, Francis M P; Williams, Gray A; Somero, George N; Helmuth, Brian

2017-05-17

Biogeographic distributions are driven by cumulative effects of smaller scale processes. Thus, vulnerability of animals to thermal stress is the result of physiological sensitivities to body temperature ( T b ), microclimatic conditions, and behavioural thermoregulation. To understand interactions among these variables, we analysed the thermal tolerances of three species of intertidal snails from different latitudes along the Chinese coast, and estimated potential T b in different microhabitats at each site. We then empirically determined the temperatures at which heart rate decreased sharply with rising temperature (Arrhenius breakpoint temperature, ABT) and at which it fell to zero (flat line temperature, FLT) to calculate thermal safety margins (TSM). Regular exceedance of FLT in sun-exposed microhabitats, a lethal effect, was predicted for only one mid-latitude site. However, ABTs of some individuals were exceeded at sun-exposed microhabitats in most sites, suggesting physiological impairment for snails with poor behavioural thermoregulation and revealing inter-individual variations (physiological polymorphism) of thermal limits. An autocorrelation analysis of T b showed that predictability of extreme temperatures was lowest at the hottest sites, indicating that the effectiveness of behavioural thermoregulation is potentially lowest at these sites. These results illustrate the critical roles of mechanistic studies at small spatial scales when predicting effects of climate change. © 2017 The Author(s).

Untangling the roles of microclimate, behaviour and physiological polymorphism in governing vulnerability of intertidal snails to heat stress

PubMed Central

Li, Xiao-xu; Choi, Francis M. P.; Williams, Gray A.; Somero, George N.; Helmuth, Brian

2017-01-01

Biogeographic distributions are driven by cumulative effects of smaller scale processes. Thus, vulnerability of animals to thermal stress is the result of physiological sensitivities to body temperature (Tb), microclimatic conditions, and behavioural thermoregulation. To understand interactions among these variables, we analysed the thermal tolerances of three species of intertidal snails from different latitudes along the Chinese coast, and estimated potential Tb in different microhabitats at each site. We then empirically determined the temperatures at which heart rate decreased sharply with rising temperature (Arrhenius breakpoint temperature, ABT) and at which it fell to zero (flat line temperature, FLT) to calculate thermal safety margins (TSM). Regular exceedance of FLT in sun-exposed microhabitats, a lethal effect, was predicted for only one mid-latitude site. However, ABTs of some individuals were exceeded at sun-exposed microhabitats in most sites, suggesting physiological impairment for snails with poor behavioural thermoregulation and revealing inter-individual variations (physiological polymorphism) of thermal limits. An autocorrelation analysis of Tb showed that predictability of extreme temperatures was lowest at the hottest sites, indicating that the effectiveness of behavioural thermoregulation is potentially lowest at these sites. These results illustrate the critical roles of mechanistic studies at small spatial scales when predicting effects of climate change. PMID:28469014

Encountering a bait is necessary but insufficient to explain individual variability in vulnerability to angling in two freshwater benthivorous fish in the wild

PubMed Central

Monk, Christopher Thomas; Arlinghaus, Robert

2017-01-01

Fish personality traits, such as swimming activity, or personality related emergent behavioural properties, such as the degree of space use shown by an individual fish, should affect encounter rates between individual fish and fishing gear. Increased encounters should in turn drive vulnerability to capture by passively operated gears. However, empirical evidence documenting a relationship between activity-based behaviours and vulnerability to capture by passive fishing gear in the wild is limited. Using whole-lake acoustic telemetry, we first documented significant repeatabilities over several months in a suite of encounter rate-associated behaviours (swimming distance, activity space size, time on baited feeding sites, switching frequency among baited feeding sites, distance to the lake bottom) in two recreationally important benthivorous cyprinid species, the common carp (Cyprinus carpio) and tench (Tinca tinca). We then experimentally targeted both species using stationary angling on baited feeding sites. Individual fish regularly visited the angling sites, documenting that the fishes encountered the angling baits. When attempting to explain individual variation in vulnerability as a function of repeatable behavioural traits, we found no evidence of a significant relationship among various encounter-based behaviours and vulnerability to angling for both species. There was also no evidence for size selection or for energetically less conditioned fish to be more vulnerable. The data cumulatively suggest that fine-scale behaviours after encountering a bait (e.g., frequency of bait intake) may be ultimately decisive for determining vulnerability to angling in benthivorous fish. Based on our work, fishing-induced selection on encounter-based behaviours in recreational angling for benthivorous fish in the wild appears unlikely. PMID:28301558

Where to go? Strategic modelling of access to emergency shelters in Mozambique.

PubMed

Gall, Melanie

2004-03-01

This paper, through spatial-analysis techniques, examines the accessibility of emergency shelters for vulnerable populations, and outlines the benefits of an extended and permanently established shelter network in central Mozambique. The raster-based modelling approach considers data on land cover, locations of accommodation centres in 2000, settlements and infrastructure. The shelter analysis is a two-step process determining access for vulnerable communities first, followed by a suitability analysis for additional emergency shelter sites. The results indicate the need for both retrofitting existing infrastructure (schools, health posts) to function as shelters during an emergency, and constructing new facilities - at best multi-purpose facilities that can serve as social infrastructure and shelter. Besides assessing the current situation in terms of availability and accessibility of emergency shelters, this paper provides an example of evaluating the effectiveness of humanitarian assistance without conventional mechanisms like food tonnage and number of beneficiaries.

A Meta-Analysis of Urban Climate Change Adaptation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The concentration of people, infrastructure, and ecosystem services in urban areas make them prime sites for climate change adaptation. While advances have been made in developing frameworks for adaptation planning and identifying both real and potential barriers to action, empirical work evaluating urban adaptation planning processes has been relatively piecemeal. Existing assessments of current experience with urban adaptation provide necessarily broad generalizations based on the available peer-reviewed literature. This paper uses a meta-analysis of U.S. cities’ current experience with urban adaptation planning drawing from 54 sources that include peer-reviewed literature, government reports, white papers, and reports published by non-governmental organizations. The analysis specifically evaluates the institutional support structures being developed for urban climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that adaptation planning is driven by a desire to reduce vulnerability and often catalyzes new collaborations and coordination mechanisms in urban governance. As a result, building capacity for urban climate change adaptation planning requires a focus not only on city governments themselves but also on the complex horizontal and vertical networks that have arisen around such efforts. Existing adaptation planning often lacks attention to equity issues, social vulnerability, and the influence of non-climatic factors on vulnerability. Engaging city govern

Using experiments and demographic models to assess rare plant vulnerability to utlity-scale solar energy development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, K. A.

2015-12-01

Pressing challenges for the implementation of solar energy are the effects of construction and operation on protected animal and plant species. Siting and mitigation of solar energy often requires understanding of basic biology and distributions of rare species that are unknown. How can we rapidly collect the information necessary on species- and site-specific population dynamics to effectively design mitigation and conservation measures? We have developed an integrated approach to assessing the vulnerability of a suite of representative rare plant species in the region. We implemented a prioritized series of demographic and experimental studies over the past four years to identify the types of species, populations, and life stages most vulnerable to impact or prone to conservation efforts. We have found substantial variation in vegetative and sexual reproduction between study populations for several rare plants, including between populations that vary in putative impact by development and/or effects of experimental solar arrays. For a subset of species, we designed population viability analysis and applied them to identify sensitive vital rates and compare quasi-extinction probabilities under different climate and impact scenarios. By utilizing practical experiments to test for the effects of real or simulated impacts, we found differences in vital rates between natural and disturbed populations adjacent to and within solar installations. We draw conclusions from our work to guide the analysis of benefits, permitting, and design of utility-scale solar energy facilities.

Securing a future for wild Indochinese tigers: Transforming tiger vacuums into tiger source sites.

PubMed

Lynam, Antony J

2010-12-01

A century ago, tigers (Panthera tigris Linnaeus, 1758) were so common in parts of Southeast Asia as to be considered pests, and governments sponsored their killing. Habitat loss and fragmentation, market-driven poaching and loss of prey have since led to the disappearance of Indochinese tigers from most their former range. Despite 15 years of dedicated tiger conservation funding, national estimates of Indochinese tiger subpopulations can at best only be roughly approximated. The future for the subspecies appears grim unless very focused efforts can be applied to stabilize and recover subpopulations. On a regional scale, the 2 proposed subspecies Panthera tigris corbetti and P. tigris jacksoni are effectively managed as separate conservation units. Evaluating where to place conservation efforts should consider the vulnerability (likelihood of extinction) and irreplaceability (likelihood that an area contributes uniquely to regional conservation) of tiger subpopulations. Only 1 site in Thailand supporting <200 individuals (Huai Kha Khaeng-Thung Yai) is considered low vulnerability, and is irreplaceable. Five sites in Lao, Thailand and Peninsular Malaysia are medium vulnerability and irreplaceable. Priorities at these 6 sites are to double tiger numbers within 10 years through protection and monitoring. Seven sites in Lao, Thailand and Myanmar are high vulnerability and irreplaceable, and might be recovered if government commitment to tigers, staff capacity and legal frameworks for tiger protection are established. Tigers are extremely vulnerable or even extinct in Cambodia's Eastern Plains and the site is irreplaceable for tigers because it represents the only large (>10,000 km(2) ) block of dry forest habitat available in the region. A reintroduction program is the only option to recover tigers there. © 2010 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

Towards a Quantitative Framework for Evaluating Vulnerability of Drinking Water Wells to Contamination from Unconventional Oil & Gas Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soriano, M., Jr.; Deziel, N. C.; Saiers, J. E.

2017-12-01

The rapid expansion of unconventional oil and gas (UO&G) production, made possible by advances in hydraulic fracturing (fracking), has triggered concerns over risks this extraction poses to water resources and public health. Concerns are particularly acute within communities that host UO&G development and rely heavily on shallow aquifers as sources of drinking water. This research aims to develop a quantitative framework to evaluate the vulnerability of drinking water wells to contamination from UO&G activities. The concept of well vulnerability is explored through application of backwards travel time probability modeling to estimate the likelihood that capture zones of drinking water wells circumscribe source locations of UO&G contamination. Sources of UO&G contamination considered in this analysis include gas well pads and documented sites of UO&G wastewater and chemical spills. The modeling approach is illustrated for a portion of Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania, where more than one thousand shale gas wells have been completed since 2005. Data from a network of eight multi-level groundwater monitoring wells installed in the study site in 2015 are used to evaluate the model. The well vulnerability concept is proposed as a physically based quantitative tool for policy-makers dealing with the management of contamination risks of drinking water wells. In particular, the model can be used to identify adequate setback distances of UO&G activities from drinking water wells and other critical receptors.

Social vulnerability analysis of the event flood puddle (case study in Lamongan regency, East Java province)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soegiyanto; Rindawati

2018-01-01

This research was conducted in the flood plain Bonorowo in Lamongan East Java Province. The area was inundated almost every year, but people still survive and remain settled at the sites. This research is to identify and analyze the social vulnerability in the flood plains on the characteristics puddle Bonorowo This research method is the study of the characteristics and livelihood strategies of the communities living on marginal lands (floodplains Bonorowo) are regions prone to flooding / inundation. Based on the object of this study is a survey research method mix / mix method, which merge or combination of methods of quantitative and qualitative methods, so it will be obtained a description of a more comprehensive and holistic. The results obtained in this study are; Social vulnerability is not affected by the heightened puddles. Social capital is abundant making society safer and more comfortable to keep their activities and settle in the region

Plutonium working group report on environmental, safety and health vulnerabilities associated with the department`s plutonium storage. Volume II, Appendix B, Part 9: Oak Ridge site site team report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1994-09-01

This report provides the input to and results of the Department of Energy (DOE) - Oak Ridge Operations (ORO) DOE Plutonium Environment, Safety and Health (ES & H) Vulnerability Assessment (VA) self-assessment performed by the Site Assessment Team (SAT) for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL or X-10) and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant (Y-12) sites that are managed by Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. (MMES). As initiated (March 15, 1994) by the Secretary of Energy, the objective of the VA is to identify and rank-order DOE-ES&H vulnerabilities associated for the purpose of decision making on the interim safe managementmore » and ultimate disposition of fissile materials. This assessment is directed at plutonium and other co-located transuranics in various forms.« less

6 CFR 27.105 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., Security Vulnerability Assessment, and Site Security Plan, through which the Department will collect and analyze key data from chemical facilities. Chemical-terrorism Vulnerability Information or CVI shall mean...

Drivers of soil organic matter vulnerability to climate change. Part I: Laboratory incubations of Swiss forest soils and radiocarbon analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González Domínguez, Beatriz; Studer, Mirjam S.; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Haghipour, Negar; McIntyre, Cameron; Wacker, Lukas; Zimmermann, Stephan; Walthert, Lorenz; Hagedorn, Frank; Abiven, Samuel

2016-04-01

Given the key role of soil organic carbon (SOC) on climate and greenhouse gas regulation, there is an increasing need to incorporate the carbon (C) feedback between SOC and the atmosphere into earth system models. The evaluation of these models points towards uncertainties on the response of CO2-C fluxes, derived from the decomposition of SOC, to the influence of controls/drivers. SOC vulnerability refers to the likelihood of losing previously stabilized soil organic matter, by the effect of environmental factors. The objective of this study is to produce a SOC vulnerability ranking of soils and to provide new insights into the influence of environmental and soil properties controls. Research on SOC vulnerability tends to focus on climatic controls and neglect the effect of other factors, such as soil geochemistry and mineralogy, on C stabilization/de-stabilization processes. In this work, we hypothesized that climate (mean annual temperature and soil moisture status proxy at the research sites in the period 1981-2010), soil (pH and % clay) and terrain (slope gradient and orientation) characteristics are the main controls of the CO2-C fluxes from SOC. Following a statistics-based approach, we selected 54 forest sites across Switzerland, which cover a broad spectrum of values for the hypothesized controls. Then, we selected the study sites so that the controls are orthogonal to each other; thus, their effect was not confounded. At each site, we collected three non-overlapping topsoil (i.e. 20 cm) composites within 40 x 40 m2 plots. In the laboratory, we sieved fresh soils at 2 mm and run a 2-weeks pre-incubation, before beginning a 6-months aerobic soil incubation under controlled conditions of moisture and temperature. Periodically, we collected NaOH (1M) traps containing the CO2-C derived from microbial heterotrophic respiration. We calculated the cumulative CO2-C respired and the one-pool SOC decomposition rates from the 54 forest sites, and linked these data to the controls. The main result is that soil moisture and pH drive the CO2-C losses, and that temperature, % clay and terrain characteristics do not play a role. We will also present results on the relationship between the bulk soil radiocarbon signature of the 54 forest soils and their CO2-C losses, as a preliminary insight into SOC vulnerability and SOC stabilization processes.

Rethinking vulnerability analysis and governance with emphasis on a participatory approach.

PubMed

Rossignol, Nicolas; Delvenne, Pierre; Turcanu, Catrinel

2015-01-01

This article draws on vulnerability analysis as it emerged as a complement to classical risk analysis, and it aims at exploring its ability for nurturing risk and vulnerability governance actions. An analysis of the literature on vulnerability analysis allows us to formulate a three-fold critique: first, vulnerability analysis has been treated separately in the natural and the technological hazards fields. This separation prevents vulnerability from unleashing the full range of its potential, as it constrains appraisals into artificial categories and thus already closes down the outcomes of the analysis. Second, vulnerability analysis focused on assessment tools that are mainly quantitative, whereas qualitative appraisal is a key to assessing vulnerability in a comprehensive way and to informing policy making. Third, a systematic literature review of case studies reporting on participatory approaches to vulnerability analysis allows us to argue that participation has been important to address the above, but it remains too closed down in its approach and would benefit from embracing a more open, encompassing perspective. Therefore, we suggest rethinking vulnerability analysis as one part of a dynamic process between opening-up and closing-down strategies, in order to support a vulnerability governance framework. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Engineering a horseradish peroxidase C stable to radical attacks by mutating multiple radical coupling sites.

PubMed

Kim, Su Jin; Joo, Jeong Chan; Song, Bong Keun; Yoo, Young Je; Kim, Yong Hwan

2015-04-01

Peroxidases have great potential as industrial biocatalysts. In particular, the oxidative polymerization of phenolic compounds catalyzed by peroxidases has been extensively examined because of the advantage of this method over other conventional chemical methods. However, the industrial application of peroxidases is often limited because of their rapid inactivation by phenoxyl radicals during oxidative polymerization. In this work, we report a novel protein engineering approach to improve the radical stability of horseradish peroxidase isozyme C (HRPC). Phenylalanine residues that are vulnerable to modification by the phenoxyl radicals were identified using mass spectrometry analysis. UV-Vis and CD spectra showed that radical coupling did not change the secondary structure or the active site of HRPC. Four phenylalanine (Phe) residues (F68, F142, F143, and F179) were each mutated to alanine residues to generate single mutants to examine the role of these sites in radical coupling. Despite marginal improvement of radical stability, each single mutant still exhibited rapid radical inactivation. To further reduce inactivation by radical coupling, the four substitution mutations were combined in F68A/F142A/F143A/F179A. This mutant demonstrated dramatic enhancement of radical stability by retaining 41% of its initial activity compared to the wild-type, which was completely inactivated. Structure and sequence alignment revealed that radical-vulnerable Phe residues of HPRC are conserved in homologous peroxidases, which showed the same rapid inactivation tendency as HRPC. Based on our site-directed mutagenesis and biochemical characterization, we have shown that engineering radical-vulnerable residues to eliminate multiple radical coupling can be a good strategy to improve the stability of peroxidases against radical attack. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Water-quality observations of the San Antonio segment of the Edwards aquifer, Texas, with an emphasis on processes influencing nutrient and pesticide geochemistry and factors affecting aquifer vulnerability, 2010–16

USGS Publications Warehouse

Opsahl, Stephen P.; Musgrove, MaryLynn; Mahler, Barbara J.; Lambert, Rebecca B.

2018-06-07

As questions regarding the influence of increasing urbanization on water quality in the Edwards aquifer are raised, a better understanding of the sources, fate, and transport of compounds of concern in the aquifer—in particular, nutrients and pesticides—is needed to improve water management decision-making capabilities. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System, performed a study from 2010 to 2016 to better understand how water quality changes under a range of hydrologic conditions and in contrasting land-cover settings (rural and urban) in the Edwards aquifer. The study design included continuous hydrologic monitoring, continuous water-quality monitoring, and discrete sample collection for a detailed characterization of water quality at a network of sites throughout the aquifer system. The sites were selected to encompass a “source-to-sink” (that is, from aquifer recharge to aquifer discharge) approach. Network sites were selected to characterize rainfall, recharging surface water, and groundwater; groundwater sites included wells in the unconfined part of the aquifer (unconfined wells) and in the confined part of the aquifer (confined wells) and a major discharging spring. Storm-related samples—including rainfall samples, stormwater-runoff (surface-water) samples, and groundwater samples—were collected to characterize the aquifer response to recharge.Elevated nitrate concentrations relative to national background values and the widespread detection of pesticides indicate that the Edwards aquifer is vulnerable to contamination and that vulnerability is affected by factors such as land cover, aquifer hydrogeology, and changes in hydrologic conditions. Greater vulnerability of groundwater in urban areas relative to rural areas was evident from results for urban groundwater sites, which generally had higher nitrate concentrations, elevated δ15N-nitrate values, a greater diversity of pesticides, and higher pesticide concentrations. The continuum of water quality from unconfined rural groundwater sites (least affected by anthropogenic contamination) to unconfined urban groundwater sites (most affected by anthropogenic contamination) demonstrates enhanced vulnerability of urban versus rural land cover. Differences in contaminant occurrences and concentration among unconfined urban wells indicate that the urban parts of the aquifer are not uniformly vulnerable, but rather are affected by spatial differences in the sources of nutrients and pesticides. In urban areas, the shallow, unconfined groundwater sites showed greater temporal variability in both nutrient and pesticide concentrations, as well as a greater degree of contamination, than did deeper, confined groundwater sites. In comparison to that of the shallow, unconfined groundwater sites, the water quality of the deeper, confined groundwater sites was relatively invariant during this multiyear study. Although aquifer hydrogeology is an important factor related to aquifer vulnerability, land cover likely has a greater influence on pesticide contamination of groundwater. Temporal variability in hydrologic conditions for the Edwards aquifer is apparent in data for surface water as a source of groundwater recharge, water-level altitude in wells, spring discharge, and groundwater quality. This temporal variability affects recharge sources, recharge amounts, groundwater traveltimes, flow routing, water-rock interaction processes, dilution, mixing, and, in turn, water quality. Relations of land cover, aquifer hydrogeology, and changing hydrologic conditions to water quality are complex but provide insight into the vulnerability of Edwards aquifer groundwater—a vital drinking-water resource.

Multiple perspective vulnerability analysis of the power network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuliang; Zhang, Jianhua; Duan, Na

2018-02-01

To understand the vulnerability of the power network from multiple perspectives, multi-angle and multi-dimensional vulnerability analysis as well as community based vulnerability analysis are proposed in this paper. Taking into account of central China power grid as an example, correlation analysis of different vulnerability models is discussed. Then, vulnerabilities produced by different vulnerability metrics under the given vulnerability models and failure scenarios are analyzed. At last, applying the community detecting approach, critical areas of central China power grid are identified, Vulnerable and robust communities on both topological and functional perspective are acquired and analyzed. The approach introduced in this paper can be used to help decision makers develop optimal protection strategies. It will be also useful to give a multiple vulnerability analysis of the other infrastructure systems.

Adolescent alcohol-related risk cognitions: the roles of social norms and social networking sites.

PubMed

Litt, Dana M; Stock, Michelle L

2011-12-01

The present study examined the impact of socially based descriptive norms on willingness to drink alcohol, drinker prototype favorability, affective alcohol attitudes, and perceived vulnerability for alcohol-related consequences within the Prototype Willingness model. Descriptive norms were manipulated by having 189 young adolescents view experimenter-created profile pages from the social networking site Facebook, which either showed older peers drinking or not. The results provided evidence that descriptive norms for alcohol use, as portrayed by Facebook profiles, significantly impact willingness to use, prototypes, attitudes toward use, and perceived vulnerability. A multiple mediation analysis indicated that prototypes, attitudes, and perceptions of use mediated the relationship between the content of the Facebook profile and willingness. These results indicate that adolescents who perceive that alcohol use is normative, as evidenced by Facebook profiles, are at higher risk for cognitions shown to predict alcohol use than adolescents who do not see alcohol use portrayed as frequently on Facebook.

6 CFR 27.235 - Alternative security program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... submit an ASP in lieu of a Security Vulnerability Assessment, Site Security Plan, or both. (2) Tier 1... Tier 3 facilities may not submit an ASP in lieu of a Security Vulnerability Assessment. (b) The... Security Vulnerability Assessment or using the procedure specified in § 27.245 if the ASP is intended to...

6 CFR 27.255 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... audit required under § 27.225(e)) or Security Vulnerability Assessment, a record of the audit, including... retain records of submitted Top-Screens, Security Vulnerability Assessments, Site Security Plans, and all...

Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, R. H.; Blohm, A. J.; Delgado, A.

2015-08-15

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before finalmore » conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure; (4) Vulnerability assessments can be connected to efforts to improve facility resilience to motivate participation; and (5) Efficient, scalable methods for vulnerability assessment can be developed, but additional case studies and evaluation are required.« less

Vulnerability Assessment of a Coastal Dune System at São Francisco do Sul Island, Santa Catarina, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alquini, Fernanda; Bertoni, Duccio; Sarti, Giovanni; Ciccarelli, Daniela; Pozzebon, Alessandro; Ferreira de Melo Júnior, João Carlos; Voos Vieira, Celso

2016-10-01

In this paper a Coastal Dune Vulnerability Index (CDVI) has been applied on a beach located in the eastern side of Sao Francisco do Sul Island (Brazil). The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of a coastal dune system and to identify the areas that result most sensitive to environmental changes. The CDVI has been applied along six transects traced out on two sectors that have been selected based on dune characteristics: Zone A is characterized by well developed parabolic dunes, whereas Zone B is characterized by transverse dunes. The analysis involved 51 quantitative and qualitative variables, divided into five groups: geomorphological dune system condition, marine influence, Aeolian effect, vegetation condition and human effect. The total CDVI was computed as the unweighted average of the partial vulnerability indices. In summary, the total vulnerability can be classified as medium: the geomorphological factor must be monitored at Grande beach, in particular the blowouts in Zone A and the frontal dune retreat in Zone B. The results of the study confirm that the management of coastal areas might be improved using a tool such as the CDVI, which can be easily applied on a regular basis to take under control the factors that mostly affect the evolution of the site.

Microbial source tracking in highly vulnerable karst drinking water resources.

PubMed

Diston, D; Robbi, R; Baumgartner, A; Felleisen, R

2018-02-01

Water resources situated in areas with underlying karst geology are particularly vulnerable to fecal pollution. In such vulnerable systems, microbial source tracking (MST) methods are useful tools to elucidate the pathways of both animal and human fecal pollution, leading to more accurate water use risk assessments. Here, we describe the application of a MST toolbox using both culture-dependent bacteriophage and molecular-dependent 16S rRNA assays at spring and well sites in the karstic St Imier Valley, Switzerland. Culture-dependent and molecular-dependent marker performance varied significantly, with the 16S rRNA assays displaying greater sensitivity than their phage counterpart; HF183 was the best performing human wastewater-associated marker while Rum2Bac was the best performing ruminant marker. Differences were observed in pollution regimes between the well and spring sampling sites, with the spring water being more degraded than the well site. Our results inform the choice of marker selection for MST studies and highlight differences in microbial water quality between well and spring karst sites.

Evaluation and Mitigation of the Risk Due to Climate Change at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.

2016-12-01

The state of South Carolina, home to the Department of Energy's (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS), has been identified as facing an `above average' risk due to extreme heat, and the threat due to wildfire is expected to nearly double by 2050. To comply with DOE requirements that each of its sites prepares for climate change, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is involved in an ongoing process to evaluate the site vulnerability and establish policies to mitigate those effects. This requires close cooperation between the managers of various site facilities and on-site climate researchers. The Atmospheric Technologies Group at SRNL currently provides short-term weather forecasts to support outdoor activities on site, but is also now working with site decision-makers to achieve DOE's goals of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We will discuss the results of our climate vulnerability assessment, which includes the effects of climate change on the energy requirements for mission critical infrastructure, the health, safety and productivity of the outdoor workforce, the danger of fire in the SRS forest, and the levels of surface water impoundments. (The latter of which must be maintained to avoid the release of radioactive contaminants sequestered beneath them). For each of these, existing climate change projections were carefully studied and `translated' into numerical indices relevant to facility personnel at SRS, along with a vulnerability rating (also based on conversations with site workers) to estimate the most endangered `assets'. We will also explain the process we have developed to facilitate effective communication between researchers and managers - involving them both in the development of the climate vulnerability assessment and the next steps toward planning, resource allocation, actions to mitigate rising costs, and safety considerations as well as helping the site remain sustainable throughout the future of its missions.

Exploring spatial patterns of vulnerability for diverse biodiversity descriptors in regional conservation planning.

PubMed

Vimal, Ruppert; Pluvinet, Pascal; Sacca, Céline; Mazagol, Pierre-Olivier; Etlicher, Bernard; Thompson, John D

2012-03-01

In this study, we developed a multi-criteria assessment of spatial variability of the vulnerability of three different biodiversity descriptors: sites of high conservation interest by virtue of the presence of rare or remarkable species, extensive areas of high ecological integrity, and landscape diversity in grid cells across an entire region. We assessed vulnerability in relation to (a) direct threats in and around sites to a distance of 2 km associated with intensive agriculture, building and road infrastructure and (b) indirect effects of human population density on a wider scale (50 km). The different combinations of biodiversity and threat indicators allowed us to set differential priorities for biodiversity conservation and assess their spatial variation. For example, with this method we identified sites and grid cells which combined high biodiversity with either high threat values or low threat values for the three different biodiversity indicators. In these two classes the priorities for conservation planning will be different, reduce threat values in the former and restrain any increase in the latter. We also identified low priority sites (low biodiversity with either high or low threats). This procedure thus allows for the integration of a spatial ranking of vulnerability into priority setting for regional conservation planning. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linking climate change and karst hydrology to evaluate species vulnerability: The Edwards and Madison aquifers (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahler, B. J.; Long, A. J.; Stamm, J. F.; Poteet, M.; Symstad, A.

2013-12-01

Karst aquifers present an extreme case of flow along structurally variable pathways, making them highly dynamic systems and therefore likely to respond rapidly to climate change. In turn, many biological communities and ecosystems associated with karst are sensitive to hydrologic changes. We explored how three sites in the Edwards aquifer (Texas) and two sites in the Madison aquifer (South Dakota) might respond to projected climate change from 2011 to 2050. Ecosystems associated with these karst aquifers support federally listed endangered and threatened species and state-listed species of concern, including amphibians, birds, insects, and plants. The vulnerability of selected species associated with projected climate change was assessed. The Advanced Research Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model was used to simulate projected climate at a 36-km grid spacing for three weather stations near the study sites, using boundary and initial conditions from the global climate model Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) and an A2 emissions scenario. Daily temperature and precipitation projections from the WRF model were used as input for the hydrologic Rainfall-Response Aquifer and Watershed Flow (RRAWFLOW) model and the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) model. RRAWFLOW is a lumped-parameter model that simulates hydrologic response at a single site, combining the responses of quick and slow flow that commonly characterize karst aquifers. CCVI uses historical and projected climate and hydrologic metrics to determine the vulnerability of selected species on the basis of species exposure to climate change, sensitivity to factors associated with climate change, and capacity to adapt to climate change. An upward trend in temperature was projected for 2011-2050 at all three weather stations; there was a trend (downward) in annual precipitation only for the weather station in Texas. A downward trend in mean annual spring flow or groundwater level was projected for all of the Edwards sites, but there was no significant trend for the Madison sites. Of 16 Edwards aquifer species evaluated (four amphibians, six arthropods, one fish, one mollusk, and four plants), 12 were scored as highly or moderately vulnerable under the projected climate change scenario. In contrast, all of the 8 Madison aquifer species evaluated (two mammals, one bird, one mollusk, and four plants) were scored as moderately vulnerable, stable, or intermediate between the two. The inclusion of hydrologic projections in the vulnerability assessment was essential for interpreting the effects of climate change on aquatic species of conservations concern, such as endemic salamanders. The linkage of climate, hydrologic, and vulnerability models provided a bridge to project the effects of global climate change on local karst aquifer and stream systems and selected species.

Gendered vulnerabilities and grassroots adaptation initiatives in home gardens and small orchards in Northwest Mexico.

PubMed

Buechler, Stephanie

2016-12-01

With the retreat of the state under neoliberalism, the lack of (or negligible) government and non-governmental support reasserts grassroots initiatives as a global-change strategy. A feminist political ecology approach and the concept of adverse inclusion were used to facilitate an analysis of social differences shaping local-level adaptive responses. Adaptive responses of small farmers in the border village of San Ignacio, Sonora, Mexico, who are increasingly vulnerable to climate change, water scarcity, and changing labor markets were studied. Gender differences in production sites translate into diverse vulnerabilities and adaptive strategies. Local capacities and initiatives should be a focus of research and policy to avoid viewing women and men as passive in the face of global change. The dynamic strategies of San Ignacio women and men in home gardens and small orchards hold lessons for other regions particularly related to adaptation to climate change via agrobiodiversity, water resource management, and diversified agricultural livelihoods.

A preliminary analysis of quantifying computer security vulnerability data in "the wild"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farris, Katheryn A.; McNamara, Sean R.; Goldstein, Adam; Cybenko, George

2016-05-01

A system of computers, networks and software has some level of vulnerability exposure that puts it at risk to criminal hackers. Presently, most vulnerability research uses data from software vendors, and the National Vulnerability Database (NVD). We propose an alternative path forward through grounding our analysis in data from the operational information security community, i.e. vulnerability data from "the wild". In this paper, we propose a vulnerability data parsing algorithm and an in-depth univariate and multivariate analysis of the vulnerability arrival and deletion process (also referred to as the vulnerability birth-death process). We find that vulnerability arrivals are best characterized by the log-normal distribution and vulnerability deletions are best characterized by the exponential distribution. These distributions can serve as prior probabilities for future Bayesian analysis. We also find that over 22% of the deleted vulnerability data have a rate of zero, and that the arrival vulnerability data is always greater than zero. Finally, we quantify and visualize the dependencies between vulnerability arrivals and deletions through a bivariate scatterplot and statistical observations.

Spatially integrative metrics reveal hidden vulnerability of microtidal salt marshes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, Neil K.; Defne, Zafer; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Fagherazzi, Sergio; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Carniello, Luca

2017-01-01

Salt marshes are valued for their ecosystem services, and their vulnerability is typically assessed through biotic and abiotic measurements at individual points on the landscape. However, lateral erosion can lead to rapid marsh loss as marshes build vertically. Marsh sediment budgets represent a spatially integrated measure of competing constructive and destructive forces: a sediment surplus may result in vertical growth and/or lateral expansion, while a sediment deficit may result in drowning and/or lateral contraction. Here we show that sediment budgets of eight microtidal marsh complexes consistently scale with areal unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratios (UVVR) suggesting these metrics are broadly applicable indicators of microtidal marsh vulnerability. All sites are exhibiting a sediment deficit, with half the sites having projected lifespans of less than 350 years at current rates of sea-level rise and sediment availability. These results demonstrate that open-water conversion and sediment deficits are holistic and sensitive indicators of salt marsh vulnerability.

Spatially integrative metrics reveal hidden vulnerability of microtidal salt marshes

PubMed Central

Ganju, Neil K.; Defne, Zafer; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Fagherazzi, Sergio; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Carniello, Luca

2017-01-01

Salt marshes are valued for their ecosystem services, and their vulnerability is typically assessed through biotic and abiotic measurements at individual points on the landscape. However, lateral erosion can lead to rapid marsh loss as marshes build vertically. Marsh sediment budgets represent a spatially integrated measure of competing constructive and destructive forces: a sediment surplus may result in vertical growth and/or lateral expansion, while a sediment deficit may result in drowning and/or lateral contraction. Here we show that sediment budgets of eight microtidal marsh complexes consistently scale with areal unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratios (UVVR) suggesting these metrics are broadly applicable indicators of microtidal marsh vulnerability. All sites are exhibiting a sediment deficit, with half the sites having projected lifespans of less than 350 years at current rates of sea-level rise and sediment availability. These results demonstrate that open-water conversion and sediment deficits are holistic and sensitive indicators of salt marsh vulnerability. PMID:28112167

Spatially integrative metrics reveal hidden vulnerability of microtidal salt marshes.

PubMed

Ganju, Neil K; Defne, Zafer; Kirwan, Matthew L; Fagherazzi, Sergio; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Carniello, Luca

2017-01-23

Salt marshes are valued for their ecosystem services, and their vulnerability is typically assessed through biotic and abiotic measurements at individual points on the landscape. However, lateral erosion can lead to rapid marsh loss as marshes build vertically. Marsh sediment budgets represent a spatially integrated measure of competing constructive and destructive forces: a sediment surplus may result in vertical growth and/or lateral expansion, while a sediment deficit may result in drowning and/or lateral contraction. Here we show that sediment budgets of eight microtidal marsh complexes consistently scale with areal unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratios (UVVR) suggesting these metrics are broadly applicable indicators of microtidal marsh vulnerability. All sites are exhibiting a sediment deficit, with half the sites having projected lifespans of less than 350 years at current rates of sea-level rise and sediment availability. These results demonstrate that open-water conversion and sediment deficits are holistic and sensitive indicators of salt marsh vulnerability.

Topological Vulnerability Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jajodia, Sushil; Noel, Steven

Traditionally, network administrators rely on labor-intensive processes for tracking network configurations and vulnerabilities. This requires a great deal of expertise, and is error prone because of the complexity of networks and associated security data. The interdependencies of network vulnerabilities make traditional point-wise vulnerability analysis inadequate. We describe a Topological Vulnerability Analysis (TVA) approach that analyzes vulnerability dependencies and shows all possible attack paths into a network. From models of the network vulnerabilities and potential attacker exploits, we compute attack graphs that convey the impact of individual and combined vulnerabilities on overall security. TVA finds potential paths of vulnerability through a network, showing exactly how attackers may penetrate a network. From this, we identify key vulnerabilities and provide strategies for protection of critical network assets.

Functional adjustments of xylem anatomy to climatic variability: insights from long-term Ilex aquifolium tree-ring series.

PubMed

Rita, Angelo; Cherubini, Paolo; Leonardi, Stefano; Todaro, Luigi; Borghetti, Marco

2015-08-01

The present study assessed the effects of climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits, including ring width, vessel size, vessel frequency and derived variables, i.e., potential hydraulic conductivity and xylem vulnerability to cavitation in Ilex aquifolium L. trees using long-term tree-ring time series obtained at two climatically contrasting sites, one mesic site in Switzerland (CH) and one drought-prone site in Italy (ITA). Relationships were explored by examining different xylem traits, and point pattern analysis was applied to investigate vessel clustering. We also used generalized additive models and bootstrap correlation functions to describe temperature and precipitation effects. Results indicated modified radial growth and xylem anatomy in trees over the last century; in particular, vessel frequency increased markedly at both sites in recent years, and all xylem traits examined, with the exception of xylem cavitation vulnerability, were higher at the CH mesic compared with the ITA drought site. A significant vessel clustering was observed at the ITA site, which could contribute to an enhanced tolerance to drought-induced embolism. Flat and negative relationships between vessel size and ring width were observed, suggesting carbon was not allocated to radial growth under conditions which favored stem water conduction. Finally, in most cases results indicated that climatic conditions influenced functional anatomical traits more substantially than tree radial growth, suggesting a crucial role of functional xylem anatomy in plant acclimation to future climatic conditions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Biomechanics of Atherosclerotic Coronary Plaque: Site, Stability and In Vivo Elasticity Modeling

PubMed Central

Ohayon, Jacques; Finet, Gérard; Le Floc’h, Simon; Cloutier, Guy; Gharib, Ahmed M.; Heroux, Julie; Pettigrew, Roderic I.

2016-01-01

Coronary atheroma develop in local sites that are widely variable among patients and are considerably variable in their vulnerability for rupture. This article summarizes studies conducted by our collaborative laboratories on predictive biomechanical modeling of coronary plaques. It aims to give insights into the role of biomechanics in the development and localization of atherosclerosis, the morphologic features that determine vulnerable plaque stability, and emerging in vivo imaging techniques that may detect and characterize vulnerable plaque. Composite biomechanical and hemodynamic factors that influence the actual site of development of plaques have been studied. Plaque vulnerability, in vivo, is more challenging to assess. Important steps have been made in defining the biomechanical factors that are predictive of plaque rupture and the likelihood of this occurring if characteristic features are known. A critical key in defining plaque vulnerability is the accurate quantification of both the morphology and the mechanical properties of the diseased arteries. Recently, an early IVUS based palpography technique developed to assess local strain, elasticity and mechanical instabilities has been successfully revisited and improved to account for complex plaque geometries. This is based on an initial best estimation of the plaque components’ contours, allowing subsequent iteration for elastic modulus assessment as a basis for plaque stability determination. The improved method has also been preliminarily evaluated in patients with successful histologic correlation. Further clinical evaluation and refinement are on the horizon. PMID:24043605

Coastal erosion risk assessment using natural and human factors in different scales.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos

2015-04-01

Climate change, including sea-level rise and increasing storms, raise the threats of coastal erosion. Mitigating and adapting to coastal erosion risks in areas of human interest, like urban areas, culture heritage sites, and areas of economic interest, present a major challenge for society. In this context, decision making needs to be based in reliable risk assessment that includes environmental, social and economic factors. By integrating coastal hazard and risk assessments maps into coastal management plans, risks in areas of interest can be reduced. To address this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and socioeconomic importance need to be identified. A holistic risk assessment based in environmental, socioeconomic and economics approach can provide managers information how to mitigate the impact of coastal erosion and plan protection measures. Such an approach needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which interactions can be better assessed when distributed and analysed along the geographical space. In this work, estimations of climate change impact to coastline are based on a combination of environmental and economic data analysed in a GIS database. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The vulnerability assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental attributes of the beach. All calculations are implemented in a GIS database, organised in five levels. In the first level the gathering of raw data is been made. In the second level data are organized in different scales. Third level, concerns the generating of new thematic data for further use. Risk assessment analysis and cost benefit analysis for protection measures is been made in level four. In the fifth level the results are transformed in user friendly form to be used by coastal managers. As case study area for the application of the method is selected Crete Island, while for the small scale the city of Rethymnon, which at the regional vulnerability analysis was found as high vulnerable. In the small scale vulnerability analysis, the sectors of the beach which are most vulnerable were identified, and risk analysis was made based on the revenue losses. Acknowledgments This work was implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General Secretariat for Research and Technology), and is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Greek State.

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Forest Ecosystem in Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozcan, O.; Musaoglu, N.; Türkeş, M.

2017-12-01

The concept of `climate change vulnerability' helps us to better comprehend the cause/effect relationships behind climate change and its impact on human societies, socioeconomic sectors, physiographical and ecological systems. Herein, multifactorial spatial modeling was applied to evaluate the vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest ecosystem to climate change. Thus, the geographical distribution of the final Environmental Vulnerability Areas (EVAs) of the forest ecosystem are based on the estimated final Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) values. This revealed that at current levels of environmental degradation, physical, geographical, policy enforcement and socioeconomic conditions, the area with a "very low" vulnerability degree covered mainly the town, its surrounding settlements and the agricultural lands found mainly over the low and flat travertine plateau and the plains at the east and southeast of the district. The spatial magnitude of the EVAs over the forest ecosystem under the current environmental degradation was also determined. This revealed that the EVAs classed as "very low" account for 21% of the total area of the forest ecosystem, those classed as "low" account for 36%, those classed as "medium" account for 20%, and those classed as "high" account for 24%. Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected future climate indicators, both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier, hotter, more continental and more water-deficient climate. This analysis holds true for all future scenarios, with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030. However, the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become a semiarid climate in the period between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. All the observed and estimated results show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site, which is characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and the maquis vegetation, will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation, climate change and variability.

A framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment for southwest U.S. military installations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chadwick, B.; Flick, Reinhard; Helly, J.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Pei, Fang Wang; O'Reilly, W.; Guza, R.; Bromirski, Peter; Young, A.; Crampton, W.; Wild, B.; Canner, I.

2011-01-01

We describe an analysis framework to determine military installation vulnerabilities under increases in local mean sea level as projected over the next century. The effort is in response to an increasing recognition of potential climate change ramifications for national security and recommendations that DoD conduct assessments of the impact on U.S. military installations of climate change. Results of the effort described here focus on development of a conceptual framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment at coastal military installations in the southwest U.S. We introduce the vulnerability assessment in the context of a risk assessment paradigm that incorporates sources in the form of future sea level conditions, pathways of impact including inundation, flooding, erosion and intrusion, and a range of military installation specific receptors such as critical infrastructure and training areas. A unique aspect of the methodology is the capability to develop wave climate projections from GCM outputs and transform these to future wave conditions at specific coastal sites. Future sea level scenarios are considered in the context of installation sensitivity curves which reveal response thresholds specific to each installation, pathway and receptor. In the end, our goal is to provide a military-relevant framework for assessment of accelerated SLR vulnerability, and develop the best scientifically-based scenarios of waves, tides and storms and their implications for DoD installations in the southwestern U.S.

Natural phenomena evaluations of the K-25 site UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fricke, K.E.

1996-09-15

The K-25 Site UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards are used for the temporary storage of UF{sub 6} normal assay cylinders and long-term storage of other UF{sub 6} cylinders. The K-25 Site UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards consist of six on-site areas: K-1066-B, K-1066-E, K-1066-F, K-1066-J, K-1066-K and K-1066-L. There are no permanent structures erected on the cylinder yards, except for five portable buildings. The operating contractor for the K-25 Site is preparing a Safety Analysis Report (SAR) to examine the safety related aspects of the K-25 Site UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards. The SAR preparation encompasses many tasks terminating inmore » consequence analysis for the release of gaseous and liquid UF{sub 6}, one of which is the evaluation of natural phenomena threats, such as earthquakes, floods, and winds. In support of the SAR, the six active cylinder storage yards were evaluated for vulnerabilities to natural phenomena, earthquakes, high winds and tornados, tornado-generated missiles, floods (local and regional), and lightning. This report summarizes those studies. 30 refs.« less

Age and growth in the Australian freshwater mussel, Westralunio carteri , with an evaluation of the fluorochrome calcein for validating the assumption of annulus formation

Treesearch

Michael W. Klunzinger; Stephen J. Beatty; David L. Morgan; Alan J. Lymbery; Wendell R. Haag

2014-01-01

Growth and longevity of freshwater mussels (Unionida) are important for defining life-history strategies and assessing vulnerability to human impacts. We used mark–recapture and analysis of shell rings to investigate age and growth of the hyriid, Westralunio carteri, at 5 sites in southwestern Australia. We tested the utility of the in situ marker...

Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: the case study of the North Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Rizzi, J.; Marcomini, A.

2012-07-01

Sea level rise, changes in storms and wave climate as a consequence of global climate change are expected to increase the size and magnitude of flooded and eroding coastal areas, thus having profound impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. River deltas, beaches, estuaries and lagoons are considered particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, which should be studied at the regional/local scale. This paper presents a regional vulnerability assessment (RVA) methodology developed to analyse site-specific spatial information on coastal vulnerability to the envisaged effects of global climate change, and assist coastal communities in operational coastal management and conservation. The main aim of the RVA is to identify key vulnerable receptors (i.e. natural and human ecosystems) in the considered region and localize vulnerable hot spot areas, which could be considered as homogeneous geographic sites for the definition of adaptation strategies. The application of the RVA methodology is based on a heterogeneous subset of bio-geophysical and socio-economic vulnerability indicators (e.g. coastal topography, geomorphology, presence and distribution of vegetation cover, location of artificial protection), which are a measure of the potential harm from a range of climate-related impacts (e.g. sea level rise inundation, storm surge flooding, coastal erosion). Based on a system of numerical weights and scores, the RVA provides relative vulnerability maps that allow to prioritize more vulnerable areas and targets of different climate-related impacts in the examined region and to support the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities, providing a basis for coastal zoning and land use planning. The implementation, performance and results of the methodology for the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) are fully described in the paper.

Landslide vulnerability criteria: a case study from Umbria, central Italy.

PubMed

Galli, Mirco; Guzzetti, Fausto

2007-10-01

Little is known about the vulnerability to landslides, despite landslides causing frequent and widespread damage to the population and the built-up environment in many areas of the world. Lack of information about vulnerability to landslides limits our ability to determine landslide risk. This paper provides information on the vulnerability of buildings and roads to landslides in Umbria, central Italy. Information on 103 landslides of the slide and slide-earth flow types that have resulted in damage to buildings and roads at 90 sites in Umbria is used to establish dependencies between the area of the landslide and the vulnerability to landslides. The dependencies obtained are applied in the hills surrounding the town of Collazzone, in central Umbria, an area for which a detailed landslide inventory map is available. By exploiting the landslide inventory and the established vulnerability curves, the geographical distribution of the vulnerability to landslides is mapped and statistics of the expected damage are calculated. Reliability and limits of the vulnerability thresholds and of the obtained vulnerability assessment are discussed.

Securing your Site in Development and Beyond

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akopov, Mikhail S.

Why wait until production deployment, or even staging and testing deployment to identify security vulnerabilities? Using tools like Burp Suite, you can find security vulnerabilities before they creep up on you. Prevent cross-site scripting attacks, and establish a firmer trust between your website and your client. Verify that Apache/Nginx have the correct SSL Ciphers set. We explore using these tools and more to validate proper Apache/Nginx configurations, and to be compliant with modern configuration standards as part of the development cycle. Your clients can use tools like https://securityheaders.io and https://ssllabs.com to get a graded report on your level of compliancemore » with OWASP Secure Headers Project and SSLLabs recommendations. Likewise, you should always use the same sites to validate your configurations. Burp Suite will find common misconfigurations and will also perform more thorough security testing of your applications. In this session you will see examples of vulnerabilities that were detected early on, as well has how to integrate these practices into your daily workflow.« less

User Vulnerability and its Reduction on a Social Networking Site

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

social networking sites bring about new...and explore other users’ profiles and friend networks. Social networking sites have reshaped business models [Vayner- chuk 2009], provided platform... social networking sites is to enable users to be more social, user privacy and security issues cannot be ignored. On one hand, most social networking sites

GIS-Mapping and Statistical Analyses to Identify Climate-Vulnerable Communities and Populations Exposed to Superfund Sites

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change-related cumulative health risks are expected to be disproportionately greater for overburdened communities, due to differential proximity and exposures to chemical sources and flood zones. Communities and populations vulnerable to climate change-associated impacts ...

Localised hydrodynamics influence vulnerability of coral communities to environmental disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shedrawi, George; Falter, James L.; Friedman, Kim J.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Simpson, Christopher J.; Speed, Conrad W.; Wilson, Shaun K.; Zhang, Zhenlin

2017-09-01

The movement of water can have a significant influence on the vulnerability of hermatypic corals to environmental disturbances such as cyclone damage, heat stress and anoxia. Here, we explore the relationship between small reef-scale water circulation patterns and measured differences in the abundance, composition and vulnerability of coral assemblages over decades. Changes in coral cover and community structure within Bill's Bay (Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia) over a 22-yr period, during which multiple disturbance events (including mass bleaching, anoxia, and tropical cyclones) have impacted the area, were compared with spatial variation in water residence times (WRT). We found that reef sites associated with longer water residence times (WRT >15 h) experienced higher rates of coral mortality during acute environmental disturbances compared to reef sites with shorter WRT. Shifts in coral community composition from acroporid to faviid-dominated assemblages were also more prominent at sites with long WRT compared to reef sites with shorter WRT, although shifts in community composition were also observed at sites close to shore. Interestingly, these same long-WRT sites also tended to have the fastest recovery rates so that coral cover was returned to original levels of approximately 20% over two decades. This study provides empirical evidence that spatial patterns in water circulation and flushing can influence the resilience of coral communities, thus identifying areas sensitive to emerging threats associated with global climate change.

A concept analysis of women's vulnerability during pregnancy, birth and the postnatal period.

PubMed

Briscoe, Lesley; Lavender, Tina; McGowan, Linda

2016-10-01

To report an analysis of the concept of vulnerability associated with pregnancy, birth and the postnatal period. The concept of vulnerability during childbirth is complex and the term, 'to be vulnerable' frequently attains a vague application. Analysis about vulnerability is needed to guide policy, practice, education and research. Clarity around the concept has the potential to improve outcomes for women. Concept analysis. Searches were conducted in CINAHL, EMBASE, PubMed, Psychinfo, MEDLINE, MIDIRS and ASSIA and limited to between January 2000 - June 2014. Data were collected over 12 months during 2014. This concept analysis drew on Morse's qualitative methods. Vulnerability during pregnancy, birth and the postnatal period can be defined by three main attributes: (a) Threat; (b) Barrier; and (c) Repair. Key attributes have the potential to influence outcome for women. Inseparable sub-attributes such as mother and baby attachment, the woman's free will and choice added a level of complexity about the concept. This concept analysis has clarified how the term vulnerability is currently understood and used in relation to pregnancy, birth and the postnatal period. Vulnerability should be viewed as a complex phenomenon rather than a singular concept. A 'vulnerability journey plan' has the potential to identify how reparative interventions may develop the woman's capacity for resilience and influence the degree of vulnerability experienced. Methodology based around complex theory should be explored in future work about vulnerability. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Regional prioritisation of flood risk in mountainous areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelis, M. C.; Werner, M.; Obregón, N.; Wright, G.

2015-07-01

A regional analysis of flood risk was carried out in the mountainous area surrounding the city of Bogotá (Colombia). Vulnerability at regional level was assessed on the basis of a principal component analysis carried out with variables recognised in literature to contribute to vulnerability; using watersheds as the unit of analysis. The area exposed was obtained from a simplified flood analysis at regional level to provide a mask where vulnerability variables were extracted. The vulnerability indicator obtained from the principal component analysis was combined with an existing susceptibility indicator, thus providing an index that allows the watersheds to be prioritised in support of flood risk management at regional level. Results show that the components of vulnerability can be expressed in terms of four constituent indicators; socio-economic fragility, which is composed of demography and lack of well-being; lack of resilience, which is composed of education, preparedness and response capacity, rescue capacity, social cohesion and participation; and physical exposure is composed of exposed infrastructure and exposed population. A sensitivity analysis shows that the classification of vulnerability is robust for watersheds with low and high values of the vulnerability indicator, while some watersheds with intermediate values of the indicator are sensitive to shifting between medium and high vulnerability. The complex interaction between vulnerability and hazard is evidenced in the case study. Environmental degradation in vulnerable watersheds shows the influence that vulnerability exerts on hazard and vice versa, thus establishing a cycle that builds up risk conditions.

A Preliminary Vulnerability Assessment of Coastal Architectural and Archeological Resources in the Historic Strawbery Banke District of Portsmouth, New Hampshire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Routhier, M.; Curran, B.; Mulukutla, G. K.; Jefferson, M.; Hall, C. L.

2011-12-01

Over the course of the last 100 years the global (eustatic) mean sea level has increased at an average rate of 1 to 3 millimeters per year and is expected to further rise by at least 0.9m to 1.6m from 1990 to 2100 due to the effects of climate change. This fact will have profound impact on coastal communities because much of the world's population currently lives within Low Elevation Coastal Zones accounting for only 2% of continental land mass. This trend of populations to establish communities around coastal areas is not just a modern phenomenon. Throughout history people have created communities around coastal areas because they provided easy access to transportation, trade, and sustenance. Numerous historic sites around the world today can be identified as being coastal and thus susceptible to the effects of sea level rise. This is an important fact because these sites are linked to our cultural heritage, a legacy of cultural artifacts and knowledge which tie us to our past. To better understand the vulnerability of our coastal cultural heritage relative to the effects of climate change induced sea-level rise, we are in the process of developing a set of assessment protocols that will provide preservationists, archeologists, and policy-makers with the necessary information to begin developing adaption strategies for coastal sites of cultural significance locally, nationally, and internationally. With funding through the National Geographic Society Waitt Foundation, our preliminary research has focused on the historic Strawbery Banke area of Portsmouth, New Hampshire, a settlement which dates back to the 1600s. Through the use of historical research, topographic and hydrologic surveys, in conjunction with modern data, tools, analysis techniques, and 3D geographic information system models, a "proof of concept" assessment is being established. This assessment, that includes the dynamic interactions between tidal movements and storm surges relative to the additive effects of predicted sea level rise, will give us a better understanding of the vulnerability of our local cultural heritage. In understanding vulnerabilities locally, we wish to adapt our model to the other regions.

Gender and sexual vulnerability of young women in Africa: experiences of young girls in secondary schools in Uganda.

PubMed

Muhanguzi, Florence Kyoheirwe

2011-06-01

Sexuality is part and parcel of students' experiences of schooling manifested in personal friendships, relations and social interaction. These encounters constitute sites within which sexual identities are developed, practiced and actively produced through processes of negotiation. Drawing on qualitative research conducted in 14 selected secondary schools in Central and Western Uganda, the study illuminates gendered sexual vulnerability within patterns of social interaction and young girls gendered experiences and negotiation of their sexuality. The study reveals that through social and discursive practices, students construct complex gendered relations of domination and subordination that position boys and girls differently, often creating gender inequalities and sexual vulnerability for those gendered as girls. Girls' vulnerability is characterised by confusing and traumatic experiences fraught with double standards and silences. Typical of these experiences are complex tensions and contradictions surrounding constructions of sexuality that are predicated upon unequal power and gender relations characterised by homophobia, misogyny, control of female sexuality and sexual abuse and exploitation, all which work against girls' expression of sexuality. Gender sensitive sexuality education is identified as a valuable site of intervention to address such vulnerabilities and promote gender equality and equity in society.

Tsunami vertical-evacuation planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest as a geospatial, multi-criteria decision problem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan; Jones, Jeanne; Schelling, John; Schmidtlein, Mathew

2014-01-01

Tsunami vertical-evacuation (TVE) refuges can be effective risk-reduction options for coastal communities with local tsunami threats but no accessible high ground for evacuations. Deciding where to locate TVE refuges is a complex risk-management question, given the potential for conflicting stakeholder priorities and multiple, suitable sites. We use the coastal community of Ocean Shores (Washington, USA) and the local tsunami threat posed by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of geospatial, multi-criteria decision analysis for framing the locational problem of TVE siting. We demonstrate a mixed-methods approach that uses potential TVE sites identified at community workshops, geospatial analysis to model changes in pedestrian evacuation times for TVE options, and statistical analysis to develop metrics for comparing population tradeoffs and to examine influences in decision making. Results demonstrate that no one TVE site can save all at-risk individuals in the community and each site provides varying benefits to residents, employees, customers at local stores, tourists at public venues, children at schools, and other vulnerable populations. The benefit of some proposed sites varies depending on whether or not nearby bridges will be functioning after the preceding earthquake. Relative rankings of the TVE sites are fairly stable under various criteria-weighting scenarios but do vary considerably when comparing strategies to exclusively protect tourists or residents. The proposed geospatial framework can serve as an analytical foundation for future TVE siting discussions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chicoine, T.K.; Fay, P.K.; Nielsen, G.A.

Soil characteristics, elevation, annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, length of frost-free season, and mean maximum July temperature were estimated for 116 established infestations of spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa Lam. number/sup 3/ CENMA) in Montana using basic land resource maps. Areas potentially vulnerable to invasion by the plant were delineated on the basis of representative edaphic and climatic characteristics. No single environmental variable was an effective predictor of sites vulnerable to invasion by spotted knapweed. Only a combination of variables was effective, indicating that the factors that regulate adaptability of this plant are complex. This technique provides a first approximation map ofmore » the regions most similar environmentally to infested sites and; therefore, most vulnerable to further invasion. This weed migration prediction technique shows promise for predicting suitable habitats of other invader species. 6 references, 4 figures, 1 table.« less

Automated Software Vulnerability Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sezer, Emre C.; Kil, Chongkyung; Ning, Peng

Despite decades of research, software continues to have vulnerabilities. Successful exploitations of these vulnerabilities by attackers cost millions of dollars to businesses and individuals. Unfortunately, most effective defensive measures, such as patching and intrusion prevention systems, require an intimate knowledge of the vulnerabilities. Many systems for detecting attacks have been proposed. However, the analysis of the exploited vulnerabilities is left to security experts and programmers. Both the human effortinvolved and the slow analysis process are unfavorable for timely defensive measure to be deployed. The problem is exacerbated by zero-day attacks.

Clinical needs of in-treatment pregnant women with co-occurring disorders: implications for primary care.

PubMed

Lee King, Patricia A; Duan, Lei; Amaro, Hortensia

2015-01-01

We investigated social vulnerability and behavioral health clinical profiles (symptom severity) of pregnant women with co-occurring disorders, defined as substance abuse, mental illness, and trauma at treatment entry compared to their nonpregnant counterparts and the role of interpersonal abuse in clinical presentation among pregnant women. Our objective was to provide primary health care providers with insight into the needs of pregnant patients with high behavioral health risks to serve them better during the critical window of opportunity for long-term impact. We conducted cross-sectional secondary analysis of baseline data from women enrolled in treatment programs in the Women, Co-occurring Disorders and Violence Study from nine sites across the United States. We used analysis of variance and Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel statistical analyses to compare means and frequencies of social vulnerability indicators and baseline Addiction Severity Index, Brief Symptom Inventory of mental health, and Posttraumatic Stress Diagnostic Scale scores between 152 pregnant and 2,577 nonpregnant women, and between pregnant women with and without current interpersonal abuse. Compared to nonpregnant women, pregnant women evidenced more social vulnerability but better behavioral health clinical profiles at treatment entry. Current interpersonal abuse was associated with increased mental health and trauma symptomatology but not with alcohol or drug abuse severity among pregnant women. The prenatal period is an important time for screening and intervention for factors such as social vulnerability and co-occurring disorders, known to affect pregnancy and infant outcomes; social and behavioral health services are particularly essential among pregnant women with co-occurring disorders.

Local site effect of soil slope based on microtremor measurement in Samigaluh, Kulon Progo Yogyakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabowo, U. N.; Amalia, A. F.; Wiranata, F. E.

2018-03-01

This paper investigated soil slope-local site effect of earthquake inducing landslide by using microtremor Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) method. Microtremor measurements of 15 sites which were recorded for 45 minutes at each site were carried out in Ngargosari village, Samigaluh, Kulon Progo-Indonesia. Microtremor analysis using HVSR method was performed using Geopsy software. HVSR method resulted in predominant frequency values that ranges between 2,77 to 13,82 Hz and amplification factors varied from 0,46 to 5,70. The predominant frequency is associated with the depth of bedrock and the amplification factor reflects the geological condition of soil (sedimentary layer). The soil vulnerability index (Kg) varied from 0,08 to 5,77 and the higher value (Kg>3,4) in the south of the research area was identified as the weak zone of earthquake inducing landslide.

Earthquakes and building design: a primer for the laboratory animal professional.

PubMed

Vogelweid, Catherine M; Hill, James B; Shea, Robert A; Johnson, Daniel B

2005-01-01

Earthquakes can occur in most regions of the United States, so it might be necessary to reinforce vulnerable animal facilities to better protect research animals during these unpredictable events. A risk analysis should include an evaluation of the seismic hazard risk at the proposed building site balanced against the estimated consequences of losses. Risk analysis can help in better justifying and recommending to building owners the costs of incorporating additional seismic reinforcements. The planning team needs to specify the level of post-earthquake building function that is desired in the facility, and then design the facility to it.

Allele-Specific Chromatin Recruitment and Therapeutic Vulnerabilities of ESR1 Activating Mutations.

PubMed

Jeselsohn, Rinath; Bergholz, Johann S; Pun, Matthew; Cornwell, MacIntosh; Liu, Weihan; Nardone, Agostina; Xiao, Tengfei; Li, Wei; Qiu, Xintao; Buchwalter, Gilles; Feiglin, Ariel; Abell-Hart, Kayley; Fei, Teng; Rao, Prakash; Long, Henry; Kwiatkowski, Nicholas; Zhang, Tinghu; Gray, Nathanael; Melchers, Diane; Houtman, Rene; Liu, X Shirley; Cohen, Ofir; Wagle, Nikhil; Winer, Eric P; Zhao, Jean; Brown, Myles

2018-02-12

Estrogen receptor α (ER) ligand-binding domain (LBD) mutations are found in a substantial number of endocrine treatment-resistant metastatic ER-positive (ER + ) breast cancers. We investigated the chromatin recruitment, transcriptional network, and genetic vulnerabilities in breast cancer models harboring the clinically relevant ER mutations. These mutants exhibit both ligand-independent functions that mimic estradiol-bound wild-type ER as well as allele-specific neomorphic properties that promote a pro-metastatic phenotype. Analysis of the genome-wide ER binding sites identified mutant ER unique recruitment mediating the allele-specific transcriptional program. Genetic screens identified genes that are essential for the ligand-independent growth driven by the mutants. These studies provide insights into the mechanism of endocrine therapy resistance engendered by ER mutations and potential therapeutic targets. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ethical vulnerabilities in nursing history: conflicting loyalties and the patient as 'other'.

PubMed

Lagerwey, Mary Deane

2010-09-01

The purpose of this article is to explore enduring ethical vulnerabilities of the nursing profession as illustrated in historical chapters of nursing's past. It describes these events, then explores two ethical vulnerabilities in depth: conflicting loyalties and duties, and relationships with patients as 'other'. The article concludes with suggestions for more ethical approaches to the other in current nursing practice. The past may be one of the most fruitful sites for examining enduring ethical vulnerabilities of the nursing profession. First of all, professional identity, which includes moral identity, comes in part from knowledge of the nursing profession's past. Second, looking to the past to understand better how events and ideologies have brought vulnerabilities to the fore raises questions about ethical nursing practice today.

Hydropower and sustainability: resilience and vulnerability in China's powersheds.

PubMed

McNally, Amy; Magee, Darrin; Wolf, Aaron T

2009-07-01

Large dams represent a whole complex of social, economic and ecological processes, perhaps more than any other large infrastructure project. Today, countries with rapidly developing economies are constructing new dams to provide energy and flood control to growing populations in riparian and distant urban communities. If the system is lacking institutional capacity to absorb these physical and institutional changes there is potential for conflict, thereby threatening human security. In this paper, we propose analyzing sustainability (political, socioeconomic, and ecological) in terms of resilience versus vulnerability, framed within the spatial abstraction of a powershed. The powershed framework facilitates multi-scalar and transboundary analysis while remaining focused on the questions of resilience and vulnerability relating to hydropower dams. Focusing on examples from China, this paper describes the complex nature of dams using the sustainability and powershed frameworks. We then analyze the roles of institutions in China to understand the relationships between power, human security and the socio-ecological system. To inform the study of conflicts over dams China is a particularly useful case study because we can examine what happens at the international, national and local scales. The powershed perspective allows us to examine resilience and vulnerability across political boundaries from a dynamic, process-defined analytical scale while remaining focused on a host of questions relating to hydro-development that invoke drivers and impacts on national and sub-national scales. The ability to disaggregate the affects of hydropower dam construction from political boundaries allows for a deeper analysis of resilience and vulnerability. From our analysis we find that reforms in China's hydropower sector since 1996 have been motivated by the need to create stability at the national scale rather than resilient solutions to China's growing demand for energy and water resource control at the local and international scales. Some measures that improved economic development through the market economy and a combination of dam construction and institutional reform may indeed improve hydro-political resilience at a single scale. However, if China does address large-scale hydropower construction's potential to create multi-scale geopolitical tensions, they may be vulnerable to conflict - though not necessarily violent - in domestic and international political arenas. We conclude with a look toward a resilient basin institution for the Nu/Salween River, the site of a proposed large-scale hydropower development effort in China and Myanmar.

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution: a combination of GIS, fuzzy logic and decision making techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gemitzi, Alexandra; Petalas, Christos; Tsihrintzis, Vassilios A.; Pisinaras, Vassilios

2006-03-01

The assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution aims at highlighting areas at a high risk of being polluted. This study presents a methodology, to estimate the risk of an aquifer to be polluted from concentrated and/or dispersed sources, which applies an overlay and index method involving several parameters. The parameters are categorized into three factor groups: factor group 1 includes parameters relevant to the internal aquifer system’s properties, thus determining the intrinsic aquifer vulnerability to pollution; factor group 2 comprises parameters relevant to the external stresses to the system, such as human activities and rainfall effects; factor group 3 incorporates specific geological settings, such as the presence of geothermal fields or salt intrusion zones, into the computation process. Geographical information systems have been used for data acquisition and processing, coupled with a multicriteria evaluation technique enhanced with fuzzy factor standardization. Moreover, besides assigning weights to factors, a second set of weights, i.e., order weights, has been applied to factors on a pixel by pixel basis, thus allowing control of the level of risk in the vulnerability determination and the enhancement of local site characteristics. Individual analysis of each factor group resulted in three intermediate groundwater vulnerability to pollution maps, which were combined in order to produce the final composite groundwater vulnerability map for the study area. The method has been applied in the region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace (Northern Greece), an area of approximately 14,000 km2. The methodology has been tested and calibrated against the measured nitrate concentration in wells, in the northwest part of the study area, providing results related to the aggregation and weighting procedure.

Broad and potent HIV-1 neutralization by a human antibody that binds the gp41-120 interface

PubMed Central

Huang, Jinghe; Kang, Byong H.; Pancera, Marie; Lee, Jeong Hyun; Tong, Tommy; Feng, Yu; Georgiev, Ivelin S.; Chuang, Gwo-Yu; Druz, Aliaksandr; Doria-Rose, Nicole A.; Laub, Leo; Sliepen, Kwinten; van Gils, Marit J.; de la Peña, Alba Torrents; Derking, Ronald; Klasse, Per-Johan; Migueles, Stephen A.; Bailer, Robert T.; Alam, Munir; Pugach, Pavel; Haynes, Barton F.; Wyatt, Richard T.; Sanders, Rogier W.; Binley, James M.; Ward, Andrew B.; Mascola, John R.; Kwong, Peter D.; Connors, Mark

2014-01-01

The isolation of human monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) is providing important insights regarding the specificities that underlie broad neutralization of HIV-1 (reviewed in1). Here we report a broad and extremely potent HIV-specific mAb, termed 35O22, which binds novel HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) epitope. 35O22 neutralized 62% of 181 pseudoviruses with an IC50<50 μg/ml. The median IC50 of neutralized viruses was 0.033 μg/ml, among the most potent thus far described. 35O22 did not bind monomeric forms of Env tested, but did bind the trimeric BG505 SOSIP.664. Mutagenesis and a reconstruction by negative-stain electron microscopy of the Fab in complex with trimer revealed it to bind a conserved epitope, which stretched across gp120 and gp41. The specificity of 35O22 represents a novel site of vulnerability on HIV Env, which serum analysis indicates to be commonly elicited by natural infection. Binding to this new site of vulnerability may thus be an important complement to current mAb-based approaches to immunotherapies, prophylaxis, and vaccine design. PMID:25186731

Liquefaction potential of Nile delta, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fergany, Elsayed; Omar, Khaled

2017-06-01

Understanding how sedimentary basins respond to seismic-wave energy generated by earthquake events is a significant concern for seismic-hazard estimation and risk analysis. The main goal of this study is assessing the vulnerability index, Kg, as an indicator for liquefaction potential sites in the Nile delta basin based on the microtremor measurements. Horizontal to Vertical spectral ratio analyses (HVSR) of ambient noise data, which was conducted in 2006 at 120 sites covering the Nile delta from south to north were reprocessed using Geopsy software. HVSR factors of amplification, A, and fundamental frequency, F, were calculated and Kg was estimated for each measurement. The Kg value varies widely from south toward north delta and the potential liquefaction places were estimated. The higher vulnerability indices are associated with sites located in southern part of the Nile delta and close to the branches of Nile River. The HVSR factors were correlated with geologic setting of the Nile delta and show good correlations with the sediment thickness and subsurface stratigraphic boundaries. However, we note that sites located in areas that have greatest percentage of sand also yielded relatively high Kg values with respect to sites in areas where clay is abundant. We concluded that any earthquake with ground acceleration more than 50 gal at hard rock can cause a perceived deformation of sandy sediments and liquefaction can take place in the weak zones of Kg ≥ 20. The worst potential liquefaction zones (Kg > 30) are frequently joined to the Damietta and Rosetta Nile River branches and south Delta where relatively coarser sand exists. The HVSR technique is a very sensitive tool for lithological stratigraphy variations in two dimensions and varying liquefaction susceptibility.

An Empirical Method to Assess the Seismic Vulnerability of Existing Buildings Using the HVSR Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mucciarelli, M.; Contri, P.; Monachesi, G.; Calvano, G.; Gallipoli, M.

- The seismic vulnerability of existing buildings is usually estimated according to procedures based on checklists of main structural features. The relationship with damage is then assessed using experience from past events. An approach used in seismology for the evaluation of site amplification, based on horizontal-to-vertical ratio of weak motion and microtremors, has been applied to the structural field. This methodology provides an alternative, promising tool towards a quick and reliable estimate of seismic vulnerability. The advantages are:• The measurements are quick, simple and stable. They are non-invasive and do not affect at all, even temporarily, the functions housed in the buildings studied.• The site effect and the soil structure interaction are explicitly accounted for in the vulnerability estimate, when they are excluded in the traditional approaches.• The relationship with damage is established using meaningful physical parameters related to the construction technology, instead of adimensional, normalised indexes. The procedure has been applied to several case histories of buildings damaged in the recent Umbria-Marche earthquake which occurred in Italy in 1997. The same model has been applied to different structures (brick/stone masonry and infilled r.c. frames), on different geological conditions and under very different seismic loads. Using this combined site/building approach, it was possible to explain very sharp variations in the damage pattern.

Goldspotted spinefoot Siganus punctatus (Siganidae) age-based reproductive life history and fisheries vulnerability.

PubMed

Rhodes, K; Hernandez-Ortiz, D; Ioanis, M; Washington, W; Maxim, S; Olpet, K; Malakai, S

2017-11-01

Between February 2015 and 2016, samples of the Indo-Pacific goldspotted spinefoot Siganus punctatus were taken from local fish markets, feeding sites and nursery grounds on the main island of Pohnpei, Micronesia, to ascertain sexual pattern, reproductive seasonality, age, growth and mortality. Microscopic examinations of gonads identified two seasonal peaks in reproduction: February to May and September to December, with evidence of some spawning activity in most months. Ripe females were observed 4 days on either side of the new moon. Females first matured at c. 180 mm fork length (L F ) and 1 year of age, which coincides with their entry into the fishery. Ninety five per cent of individuals were less than 3 years and the oldest fish were 8 years. To examine the species vulnerability to fishing, a tag-and-recapture study was conducted over 4 months in 2015 in a locally managed marine area and at an unprotected site. Findings suggest high residency and high vulnerability to fishing at shallow-water feeding sites and restricted migration overall. The placement of marine protected areas within critical habitat appears to be an effective conservation strategy for this species, particularly when combined with gear and seasonal market restrictions during vulnerable life-history phases. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

UNESCO World Heritage Site Hallstatt: Rockfall hazard and risk assessment as basis for a sustainable land-use planning- a case study from the Eastern Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melzner, Sandra; Mölk, Michael; Schiffer, Michael; Gasperl, Wolfgang

2015-04-01

In times of decreasing financial resources, the demand for the investment in protection measures with a positive return on investment is of high importance. Hazard and risk assessments are essential tools in order to ensure an economically justifiable application of money in the implementation of preventive measures. Many areas in the Eastern Alps are recurrently affected by rockfall processes which pose a significant hazard to settlements and infrastructures. Complex tectonic, lithological and geomorphologic settings require a sufficient amount of effort to map and collect high quality data to perform a reliable hazard and risk analysis. The present work summarizes the results of a detailed hazard and risk assessment performed in a community in the Northern Calcareous Alps (Upper Austroalpine Unit). The community Hallstatt is exposed to very steep limestone cliffs, which are highly susceptible towards future, in many parts high magnitude rock failures. The analysis of the record of former events shows that since 1652 several rockfall events damaged or destroyed houses and killed or injured some people. Hallstatt as a Unesco World Heritage Site represents a very vulnerable settlement, the risk being elevated by a high frequency tourism with greater one million visitors per year. Discussion will focus on the applied methods to identify and map the rockfall hazard and risk, including a magnitude-frequency analysis of events in the past and an extrapolation in the future as well as a vulnerability analysis for the existing infrastructure under the assumed events for the determined magnitude-frequency scenarios. Furthermore challenges for a decision making in terms of a sustainable land use planning and implementation of preventive measures will be discussed.

NV: Nessus Vulnerability Visualization for the Web

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrison, Lane; Spahn, Riley B; Iannacone, Michael D

2012-01-01

Network vulnerability is a critical component of network se- curity. Yet vulnerability analysis has received relatively lit- tle attention from the security visualization community. In this paper we describe nv, a web-based Nessus vulnerability visualization. Nv utilizes treemaps and linked histograms to allow system administrators to discover, analyze, and man- age vulnerabilities on their networks. In addition to visual- izing single Nessus scans, nv supports the analysis of sequen- tial scans by showing which vulnerabilities have been fixed, remain open, or are newly discovered. Nv was also designed to operate completely in-browser, to avoid sending sensitive data to outside servers.more » We discuss the design of nv, as well as provide case studies demonstrating vulnerability analysis workflows which include a multiple-node testbed and data from the 2011 VAST Challenge.« less

Cyber / Physical Security Vulnerability Assessment Integration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacDonald, Douglas G.; Simpkins, Bret E.

Abstract Both physical protection and cyber security domains offer solutions for the discovery of vulnerabilities through the use of various assessment processes and software tools. Each vulnerability assessment (VA) methodology provides the ability to identify and categorize vulnerabilities, and quantifies the risks within their own areas of expertise. Neither approach fully represents the true potential security risk to a site and/or a facility, nor comprehensively assesses the overall security posture. The technical approach to solving this problem was to identify methodologies and processes that blend the physical and cyber security assessments, and develop tools to accurately quantify the unaccounted formore » risk. SMEs from both the physical and the cyber security domains developed the blending methodologies, and cross trained each other on the various aspects of the physical and cyber security assessment processes. A local critical infrastructure entity volunteered to host a proof of concept physical/cyber security assessment, and the lessons learned have been leveraged by this effort. The four potential modes of attack an adversary can use in approaching a target are; Physical Only Attack, Cyber Only Attack, Physical Enabled Cyber Attack, and the Cyber Enabled Physical Attack. The Physical Only and the Cyber Only pathway analysis are two of the most widely analyzed attack modes. The pathway from an off-site location to the desired target location is dissected to ensure adversarial activity can be detected and neutralized by the protection strategy, prior to completion of a predefined task. This methodology typically explores a one way attack from the public space (or common area) inward towards the target. The Physical Enabled Cyber Attack and the Cyber Enabled Physical Attack are much more intricate. Both scenarios involve beginning in one domain to affect change in the other, then backing outward to take advantage of the reduced system effectiveness, before penetrating further into the defenses. The proper identification and assessment of the overlapping areas (and interaction between these areas) in the VA process is necessary to accurately assess the true risk.« less

Coastal Hazard Vulnerability Assessment: A Case Study of Erosion and Flooding on Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radosavljevic, B.; Lantuit, H.; Overduin, P. P.; Fritz, M.

2015-12-01

Coastal infrastructure, cultural, and archeological sites are increasingly vulnerable to erosion and flooding along permafrost coasts. Amplified warming of the Arctic, sea level rise, lengthening of the open water period, and a predicted increase in frequency of major storms compound these threats. Mitigation necessitates decision-making tools at an appropriate scale. We present a study of coastal erosion combining it with a flooding risk assessment for the culturally important historic settlement on Herschel Island, a UNESCO World Heritage candidate site. The resulting map may help local stakeholders devise management strategies to cope with rapidly changing environmental conditions. We analyzed shoreline movement using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) after digitizing shorelines from 1952, 1970, and 2011. Using these data, forecasts of shoreline positions were made for 20 and 50 years into the future. Flooding risk was assessed using a cost-distance map based on a high-resolution Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) dataset and current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level estimates. Widespread erosion characterizes the study area. The rate of shoreline movement for different periods of the study ranges from -5.5 to 2.7 m·a-1 (mean -0.6 m·a-1). Mean coastal retreat decreased from -0.6 m·a-1 to -0.5 m·a-1, for 1952-1970 and 1970-2000, respectively, and increased to -1.3 m·a-1 in the period 2000-2011. Ice-rich coastal sections, and coastal sections most exposed to wave attack exhibited the highest rates of coastal retreat. The geohazard map resulting from shoreline projections and flood risk analysis indicates that most of the area occupied by the historic settlement is at extreme or very high risk of flooding, and some buildings are vulnerable to coastal erosion. The results of this study indicate a greater threat by coastal flooding than erosion. Our assessment may be applied in other locations where limited data are available.

Depressive Symptoms Are More Strongly Related to Executive Functioning and Episodic Memory Among African American compared with Non-Hispanic White Older Adults

PubMed Central

Zahodne, Laura B.; Nowinski, Cindy J.; Gershon, Richard C.; Manly, Jennifer J.

2014-01-01

We examined whether the reserve capacity model can be extended to cognitive outcomes among older African Americans. Two hundred and ninety-two non-Hispanic Whites and 37 African Americans over age 54 participated in the normative study for the NIH Toolbox for the Assessment of Neurological and Behavioral Function. Multiple-group path analysis showed that associations between depressive symptoms and cognition differed by race, independent of age, education, reading level, income, health, and recruitment site. Depressive symptoms were associated with slowed processing speed among Whites and worse task-switching, inhibition, and episodic memory among African Americans. African Americans may be more vulnerable to negative effects of depression on cognition than non-Hispanic Whites. Further research is needed to explicate the psychological and neurobiological underpinnings of this greater vulnerability. PMID:25280795

A GIS Approach to Identifying Socially and Medically Vulnerable Older Adult Populations in South Florida.

PubMed

Hames, Elizabeth; Stoler, Justin; Emrich, Christopher T; Tewary, Sweta; Pandya, Naushira

2017-11-10

We define, map, and analyze geodemographic patterns of socially and medically vulnerable older adults within the tri-county region of South Florida. We apply principal components analysis (PCA) to a set of previously identified indicators of social and medical vulnerability at the census tract level. We create and map age-stratified vulnerability scores using a geographic information system (GIS), and use spatial analysis techniques to identify patterns and interactions between social and medical vulnerability. Key factors contributing to social vulnerability in areas with higher numbers of older adults include age, large household size, and Hispanic ethnicity. Medical vulnerability in these same areas is driven by disease burden, access to emergency cardiac services, availability of nursing home and hospice beds, access to home health care, and available mental health services. Age-dependent areas of social vulnerability emerge in Broward County, whereas age-dependent areas of medical vulnerability emerge in Palm Beach County. Older-adult social and medical vulnerability interact differently throughout the study area. Spatial analysis of older adult social and medical vulnerability using PCA and GIS can help identify age-dependent pockets of vulnerability that are not easily identifiable in a populationwide analysis; improve our understanding of the dynamic spatial organization of health care, health care needs, access to care, and outcomes; and ultimately serve as a tool for health care planning. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Site effect classification based on microtremor data analysis using a concentration-area fractal model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adib, A.; Afzal, P.; Heydarzadeh, K.

2015-01-01

The aim of this study is to classify the site effect using concentration-area (C-A) fractal model in Meybod city, central Iran, based on microtremor data analysis. Log-log plots of the frequency, amplification and vulnerability index (k-g) indicate a multifractal nature for the parameters in the area. The results obtained from the C-A fractal modelling reveal that proper soil types are located around the central city. The results derived via the fractal modelling were utilized to improve the Nogoshi and Igarashi (1970, 1971) classification results in the Meybod city. The resulting categories are: (1) hard soil and weak rock with frequency of 6.2 to 8 Hz, (2) stiff soil with frequency of about 4.9 to 6.2 Hz, (3) moderately soft soil with the frequency of 2.4 to 4.9 Hz, and (4) soft soil with the frequency lower than 2.4 Hz.

Site effect classification based on microtremor data analysis using concentration-area fractal model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adib, A.; Afzal, P.; Heydarzadeh, K.

2014-07-01

The aim of this study is to classify the site effect using concentration-area (C-A) fractal model in Meybod city, Central Iran, based on microtremor data analysis. Log-log plots of the frequency, amplification and vulnerability index (k-g) indicate a multifractal nature for the parameters in the area. The results obtained from the C-A fractal modeling reveal that proper soil types are located around the central city. The results derived via the fractal modeling were utilized to improve the Nogoshi's classification results in the Meybod city. The resulted categories are: (1) hard soil and weak rock with frequency of 6.2 to 8 Hz, (2) stiff soil with frequency of about 4.9 to 6.2 Hz, (3) moderately soft soil with the frequency of 2.4 to 4.9 Hz, and (4) soft soil with the frequency lower than 2.4 Hz.

Vulnerability survival analysis: a novel approach to vulnerability management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farris, Katheryn A.; Sullivan, John; Cybenko, George

2017-05-01

Computer security vulnerabilities span across large, enterprise networks and have to be mitigated by security engineers on a routine basis. Presently, security engineers will assess their "risk posture" through quantifying the number of vulnerabilities with a high Common Vulnerability Severity Score (CVSS). Yet, little to no attention is given to the length of time by which vulnerabilities persist and survive on the network. In this paper, we review a novel approach to quantifying the length of time a vulnerability persists on the network, its time-to-death, and predictors of lower vulnerability survival rates. Our contribution is unique in that we apply the cox proportional hazards regression model to real data from an operational IT environment. This paper provides a mathematical overview of the theory behind survival analysis methods, a description of our vulnerability data, and an interpretation of the results.

The participatory vulnerability scoping diagram - deliberative risk ranking for community water systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Coletti, Alex; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

Natural hazards and climate change present growing challenges to community water system (CWS) managers, who are increasingly turning to vulnerability assessments to identify, prioritize, and adapt to risks. Effectively assessing CWS vulnerability requires information and participation from various sources, one of which is stakeholders. In this article, we present a deliberative risk-ranking methodology, the participatory vulnerability scoping diagram (P-VSD), which allows rapid assessment and integration of multiple stakeholder perspectives of vulnerability. This technique is based on methods of deliberative risk evaluation and the vulnerability scoping diagram. The goal of the methodology is to engage CWS managers and stakeholders collectively to provide qualitative contextual risk rankings as a first step in a vulnerability assessment. We conduct an initial assessment using a case study of CWS in two U.S. counties, sites with broadly similar exposures but differences in population, land use, and other social sensitivity factors. Results demonstrate that CWS managers and stakeholders in the two case study communities all share the belief that their CWS are vulnerable to hazards but differ in how this vulnerability manifests itself in terms of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the system.

An atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework for environment management and protection based on CAMx.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

2018-02-01

This paper presents an atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework based on CAMx that should be helpful to assess potential impacts of changes in human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements of atmospheric vulnerability. It is also a useful and effective tool that can provide policy-guidance for environmental protection and management to reduce the atmospheric vulnerability. The developed framework was applied to evaluate the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region for verification. The results indicated that regional disparity of the atmospheric vulnerability existed in the study site. More specifically, the central and southern regions show more atmospheric environment vulnerability than the northern regions. The impact factors of atmospheric environment vulnerability in the BTH region mainly derived from increasing population press, frequently unfavorable meteorological conditions, extensive economic growth of secondary industry, increased environmental pollution, and accelerating population aging. The framework shown in this paper is an interpretative and heuristic tool for a better understanding of atmospheric vulnerability. This framework can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to straightly support environmental managers with decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tsunami Risk in the NE Atlantic: Pilot Study for Algarve Portugal and Applications for future TWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Catita, C.; Carrilho, F.; Matias, L.

2012-04-01

Tsunami risk assessment is an essential component of any Tsunami Early Warning System due to its significant contribution to the disaster reduction by providing valuable information that serve as basis for mitigation preparedness and strategies. Generally, risk assessment combines the outputs of the hazard and the vulnerability assessment for considered exposed elements. In the NE Atlantic region, the tsunami hazard is relatively well established through compilation of tsunami historical events, evaluation of tsunamigenic sources and impact computations for site-specific coastal areas. While, tsunami vulnerability remains poorly investigated in spite of some few studies that focused on limited coastal areas of the Gulf of Cadiz region. This work seeks to present a pilot study for tsunami risk assessment that covers about 170 km of coasts of Algarve region, south of Portugal. This area of high coastal occupation and touristic activities was strongly impacted by the 1755 tsunami event as reported in various historical documents. An approach based upon a combination of tsunami hazard and vulnerability is developed in order to take into account the dynamic aspect of tsunami risk in the region that depends on the variation of hazard and vulnerability of exposed elements from a coastal point to other. Hazard study is based upon the consideration of most credible earthquake scenarios and the derivation of hazard maps through hydrodynamic modeling of inundation and tsunami arrival time. The vulnerability assessment is performed by: i) the analysis of the occupation and the population density, ii) derivation of evacuation maps and safe shelters, and iii) the analysis of population response and evacuation times. Different risk levels ranging from "low" to "high" are assigned to the coats of the studied area. Variation of human tsunami risk between the high and low touristic seasons is also considered in this study and aims to produce different tsunami risk-related scenarios. Results are presented in terms of thematic maps and GIS layers highlighting information on inundation depths and limits, evacuation plans and safe shelters, tsunami vulnerability, evacuation times and tsunami risk levels. Results can be used for national and regional tsunami disaster management and planning. This work is funded by TRIDEC (Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises) FP7, EU project and by MAREMOTI (Mareograph and field tsunami observations, modeling and vulnerability studies for Northeast Atlantic and western Mediterranean) French project. Keywords: Tsunami, Algarve-Portugal, Evacuation, Vulnerability, Risk

Building Loss Estimation for Earthquake Insurance Pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durukal, E.; Erdik, M.; Sesetyan, K.; Demircioglu, M. B.; Fahjan, Y.; Siyahi, B.

2005-12-01

After the 1999 earthquakes in Turkey several changes in the insurance sector took place. A compulsory earthquake insurance scheme was introduced by the government. The reinsurance companies increased their rates. Some even supended operations in the market. And, most important, the insurance companies realized the importance of portfolio analysis in shaping their future market strategies. The paper describes an earthquake loss assessment methodology that can be used for insurance pricing and portfolio loss estimation that is based on our work esperience in the insurance market. The basic ingredients are probabilistic and deterministic regional site dependent earthquake hazard, regional building inventory (and/or portfolio), building vulnerabilities associated with typical construction systems in Turkey and estimations of building replacement costs for different damage levels. Probable maximum and average annualized losses are estimated as the result of analysis. There is a two-level earthquake insurance system in Turkey, the effect of which is incorporated in the algorithm: the national compulsory earthquake insurance scheme and the private earthquake insurance system. To buy private insurance one has to be covered by the national system, that has limited coverage. As a demonstration of the methodology we look at the case of Istanbul and use its building inventory data instead of a portfolio. A state-of-the-art time depent earthquake hazard model that portrays the increased earthquake expectancies in Istanbul is used. Intensity and spectral displacement based vulnerability relationships are incorporated in the analysis. In particular we look at the uncertainty in the loss estimations that arise from the vulnerability relationships, and at the effect of the implemented repair cost ratios.

Policies on Protecting Vulnerable People During Disasters in Iran: A Document Analysis

PubMed Central

Abbasi Dolatabadi, Zahra; Seyedin, Hesam; Aryankhesal, Aidin

2016-01-01

Context Developing official protection policies for disasters is a main strategy in protecting vulnerable people. The aim of this study was to analyze official documents concerning policies on protecting vulnerable people during disasters. Evidence Acquisition This study was conducted by the qualitative document analysis method. Documents were gathered by searching websites and referring to the organizations involved in disaster management. The documents were assessed by a researcher-made data collection form. A directed content analysis approach was used to analyze the retrieved documents regarding the protection policies and legislation for vulnerable people. Results A total of 22 documents were included in the final analysis. Most of the documents referred to women, children, elderly people, poor, and villagers as vulnerable people. Moreover, the documents did not provide information regarding official measures for protecting vulnerable people during different phases of disaster management. Conclusions A clear and comprehensive definition of “vulnerable people” and formulation of official policies to protect them is needs to be formulated. Given the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, policy makers need to develop effective context-based policies to protect vulnerable people during disasters. PMID:27921019

Hot dogs: High ambient temperatures impact reproductive success in a tropical carnivore.

PubMed

Woodroffe, Rosie; Groom, Rosemary; McNutt, J Weldon

2017-10-01

Climate change imposes an urgent need to recognise and conserve the species likely to be worst affected. However, while ecologists have mostly explored indirect effects of rising ambient temperatures on temperate and polar species, physiologists have predicted direct impacts on tropical species. The African wild dog (Lycaon pictus), a tropical species, exhibits few of the traits typically used to predict climate change vulnerability. Nevertheless, we predicted that wild dog populations might be sensitive to weather conditions, because the species shows strongly seasonal reproduction across most of its geographical range. We explored associations between weather conditions, reproductive costs, and reproductive success, drawing on long-term wild dog monitoring data from sites in Botswana (20°S, 24 years), Kenya (0°N, 12 years), and Zimbabwe (20°S, 6 years). High ambient temperatures were associated with reduced foraging time, especially during the energetically costly pup-rearing period. Across all three sites, packs which reared pups at high ambient temperatures produced fewer recruits than did those rearing pups in cooler weather; at the non-seasonal Kenya site such packs also had longer inter-birth intervals. Over time, rising ambient temperatures at the (longest-monitored) Botswana site coincided with falling wild dog recruitment. Our findings suggest a direct impact of high ambient temperatures on African wild dog demography, indicating that this species, which is already globally endangered, may be highly vulnerable to climate change. This vulnerability would have been missed by simplistic trait-based assessments, highlighting the limitations of such assessments. Seasonal reproduction, which is less common at low latitudes than at higher latitudes, might be a useful indicator of climate change vulnerability among tropical species. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Nest-site selection analysis of hooded crane (Grus monacha) in Northeastern China based on a multivariate ensemble model.

PubMed

Jiao, Shengwu; Guo, Yumin; Huettmann, Falk; Lei, Guangchun

2014-07-01

Avian nest-site selection is an important research and management subject. The hooded crane (Grus monacha) is a vulnerable (VU) species according to the IUCN Red List. Here, we present the first long-term Chinese legacy nest data for this species (1993-2010) with publicly available metadata. Further, we provide the first study that reports findings on multivariate nest habitat preference using such long-term field data for this species. Our work was carried out in Northeastern China, where we found and measured 24 nests and 81 randomly selected control plots and their environmental parameters in a vast landscape. We used machine learning (stochastic boosted regression trees) to quantify nest selection. Our analysis further included varclust (R Hmisc) and (TreenNet) to address statistical correlations and two-way interactions. We found that from an initial list of 14 measured field variables, water area (+), water depth (+) and shrub coverage (-) were the main explanatory variables that contributed to hooded crane nest-site selection. Agricultural sites played a smaller role in the selection of these nests. Our results are important for the conservation management of cranes all over East Asia and constitute a defensible and quantitative basis for predictive models.

Groundwater pollution risk assessment. Application to different carbonate aquifers in south Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez Madrid, A.; Martinez Navarrete, C.; Carrasco Cantos, F.

2009-04-01

Water protection has been considered one of the most important environmental goals in the European politics since the 2000/60/CE Water Framework Directive came into force in 2000, and more specifically in 2006 with the 2006/118/CE Directive on groundwater protection. As one of the necessary requirements to tackle groundwater protection, a pollution risk assessment has been made through the analysis of both the existing hazard human activities map and the intrinsic aquifer vulnerability map, by applying the methodologies proposed by COST Action 620 in an experimental study site in south Spain containing different carbonated aquifers, which supply 8 towns ranging from 2000 to 2500 inhabitants. In order to generate both maps it was necessary to make a field inventory over a 1:10000 topographic base map, followed by Geographic Information System (GIS) processing. The outcome maps show a clear spatial distribution of both pollution risk and intrinsic vulnerability of the carbonated aquifers studied. As a final result, a map of the intensity of groundwater pollution risk is presented, representing and important base for the development of a proper methodology for the protection of groundwater resources for human consumption protection. Keywords. Hazard, Vulnerability, Risk, SIG, Protection

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

2006-01-01

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

Evaluating Seismic Site Effects at Cultural Heritage Sites in the Mediterranean Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imposa, S.; D'Amico, S.; Panzera, F.; Lombardo, G.; Grassi, S.; Betti, M.; Muscat, R.

2017-12-01

Present study concern integrated geophysical and numerical simulation aiming at evaluate the seismic vulnerability of cultural heritage sites. Non-invasive analysis targeted to characterize local site effects as well as dynamic properties of the structure were performed. Data were collected at several locations in the Maltese Archipelago (central Mediterranean) and in some historical buildings located in Catania (Sicily). In particular, passive seismic techniques and H/V data where used to derive 1D velocity models and amplification functions. The dynamic properties of a building are usually described through its natural frequency and the damping ratio. This latter is important in seismic design since it allows one to evaluate the ability of a structure to dissipate the vibration energy during an earthquake. The fundamental frequency of the investigated structure was obtained using ambient vibrations recorded by two or more sensors monitoring the motion at different locations in the building. Accordingly, the fundamental period of several Maltese Watchtowers and some historical buildings of Catania were obtained by computing the ratio between the amplitudes of the Fourier spectrum of horizontal (longitudinal and transverse) components recorded on the top and on the ground floors. Using ANSYS code, the modal analysis was performed to evaluate the first 50 vibration modes with the aim to check the activation of the modal masses and to assess the seismic vulnerability of the tower. The STRATA code was instead adopted in the Catania heritage buildings using as reference earthquake moderate to strong shocks that struck south-eastern Sicily. In most of the investigated buildings is was not possible to identify a single natural frequency but several oscillation modes. These results appear linked to the structural complexity of the edifices, their irregular plan shape and the presence of adjacent structures. The H/V outside the buildings were used to determine predominant frequencies of the soil and to highlight potential site-to-structure resonance. The achieved findings can represent useful clues for further additional engineering investigations aiming at reducing the seismic risk, highlighting how the structural complexity and the local seismic response play an important role on building damage.

Fish and fisher behaviour influence the vulnerability of groupers (Epinephelidae) to fishing at a multispecies spawning aggregation site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, J.; Graham, N. A. J.; Cinner, J. E.; Almany, G. R.; Waldie, P.

2015-06-01

Targeted fishing of spawning aggregations is a major contributor to extinction risk in numerous species of grouper (Epinephelidae). Marine reserves are often used to protect spawning aggregation sites, including multispecies sites shared by several species of grouper. However, marine reserves may be biologically, socioeconomically or culturally unviable in some fisheries, and alternative management actions must be explored. Implementing effective management actions that control rather than prohibit fishing requires an improved understanding of how species vary in their vulnerability to fishing gears and respond to changes in fishing effort. To estimate sources of variability in vulnerability to fishing (i.e. catchability), catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) and other fisheries data were collected in parallel with underwater visual census-derived estimates of aggregation size at a multispecies spawning site of Epinephelus fuscoguttatus and E. polyphekadion. Despite having similar abundances, E. polyphekadion was eightfold more vulnerable to capture by hook-and-line gear, clearly outcompeting its congener for bait. Contrasting with the common assumption of a proportional relationship, the CPUE of both species was unrelated to the size of their respective aggregations. Moreover, the CPUE of each species was unrelated to hook size and depth fished. However, E. polyphekadion CPUE declined as the density of fishing effort increased at the site, with gear saturation identified as the likely mechanism for this effect. E. fuscoguttatus CPUE was negatively related to the size of aggregations formed by its congener, stemming from the superior competitiveness and therefore higher selectivity of the gear for E. polyphekadion. Our findings demonstrate that CPUE is an unreliable indicator of spawning aggregation status. The other sources of variation in CPUE that we identify have implications for gear-based management, which must be based on understanding of gear selectivity for aggregating species, and fishing effort controls, which must consider the potential for effort-dependent patterns in catchability.

Multi-dimensional flood vulnerability assessment using data envelopment analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd

2017-11-01

Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.

Managing a User’s Vulnerability on a Social Networking Site

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

aid not only the cyberbullying of teenagers but also the cyberstalking and cyberharassment of adults3. On a social networking site, an individual user...news/2011-07-23-facebook-stalker- sentenced_n.htm 3en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Cyberbullying 1 posts and subsequent interactions. The owner of the site

Examining social, physical, and environmental dimensions of tornado vulnerability in Texas.

PubMed

Siebeneck, Laura

2016-01-01

To develop a vulnerability model that captures the social, physical, and environmental dimensions of tornado vulnerability of Texas counties. Guided by previous research and methodologies proposed in the hazards and emergency management literature, a principle components analysis is used to create a tornado vulnerability index. Data were gathered from open source information available through the US Census Bureau, American Community Surveys, and the Texas Natural Resources Information System. Texas counties. The results of the model yielded three indices that highlight geographic variability of social vulnerability, built environment vulnerability, and tornado hazard throughout Texas. Further analyses suggest that counties with the highest tornado vulnerability include those with high population densities and high tornado risk. This article demonstrates one method for assessing statewide tornado vulnerability and presents how the results of this type of analysis can be applied by emergency managers towards the reduction of tornado vulnerability in their communities.

How Should We Treat the Vulnerable?: Qualitative Study of Authoritative Ethics Documents.

PubMed

Zagorac, Ivana

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to explore what actual guidance is provided by authoritative ethics documents regarding the recognition and protection of the vulnerable. The documents included in this analysis are the Belmont Report, the Declaration of Helsinki, The Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) Guidelines, and the UNESCO Universal Declaration on Bioethics and Human Rights, including its supplementary report on vulnerability. A qualitative analysis of these documents was conducted in light of three questions: what is vulnerability, who are the vulnerable, and how should the vulnerable be protected? The results show significant differences among the documents regarding the first two questions. None of the documents provides any guidance on the third question (how to protect the vulnerable). These results suggest a great discrepancy between the acknowledged importance of the concept of vulnerability and a general understanding of the scope, content, and practical implications of vulnerability.

A conceptual framework towards more holistic freshwater conservation planning through incorporation of stream connectivity and thermal vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramulifho, P. A.; Rivers-Moore, N. A.; Dallas, H. F.; Foord, S. H.

2018-01-01

The thermal regime of rivers plays an important role in the overall health and composition of aquatic ecosystems, and together with flow, is recognised as one of the most influential abiotic drivers of aquatic ecosystem processes affecting species distribution. Changes in thermal conditions in aquatic systems are driven by on-going human-induced climate change, hydrological, regional and structural factors. Here, we quantified the impact of instream impoundments on the natural longitudinal connectivity and estimated thermal vulnerability of catchments based on the functional relationship between changing temperature and the profile gradient of rivers in the eastern portion of South Africa. We identified catchments that are most vulnerable to thermal stress based on cold-water adapted species' tolerance to thermal changes. More than half of all studied catchments include rivers that are relatively intact longitudinally, with notable exceptions being rivers in the central portion of the study area. Thermal condition of high elevation sites is more heavily impacted by impoundments and consequently thermal vulnerability of these sites are higher. Blephariceridae and Notonemouridae, the most thermophobic families, are likely to become locally threatened or extinct, in the absence of connectivity. The quantification of stream connectivity and vulnerability of organisms to thermal changes in river systems are important decision making tools for effective adaptive and holistic conservation planning strategies.

Estimating vegetation vulnerability to detect areas prone to land degradation in the Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imbrenda, Vito; Coluzzi, Rosa; D'Emilio, Mariagrazia; Lanfredi, Maria; Simoniello, Tiziana

2013-04-01

Vegetation is one of the key components to study land degradation vulnerability because of the complex interactions and feedbacks that link it to soil. In the Mediterranean region, degradation phenomena are due to a mix of predisposing factors (thin soil horizons, low soil organic matter, increasing aridity, etc.) and bad management practices (overgrazing, deforestation, intensification of agriculture, tourism development). In particular, in areas threatened by degradation processes but still covered by vegetation, large scale soil condition evaluation is a hard task and the detection of stressed vegetation can be useful to identify on-going soil degradation phenomena and to reduce their impacts through interventions for recovery/rehabilitation. In this context the use of satellite time series can increase the efficacy and completeness of the land degradation assessment, providing precious information to understand vegetation dynamics. In order to estimate vulnerability levels in Basilicata (a Mediterranean region of Southern Italy) in the framework of PRO-LAND project (PO-FESR Basilicata 2007-2013), we crossed information on potential vegetation vulnerability with information on photosynthetic activity dynamics. Potential vegetation vulnerability represents the vulnerability related to the type of present cover in terms of fire risk, erosion protection, drought resistance and plant cover distribution. It was derived from an updated land cover map by separately analyzing each factor, and then by combining them to obtain concise information on the possible degradation exposure. The analysis of photosynthetic activity dynamics provides information on the status of vegetation, that is fundamental to discriminate the different vulnerability levels within the same land cover, i.e. the same potential vulnerability. For such a purpose, we analyzed a time series (2000-2010) of a satellite vegetation index (MODIS NDVI) with 250m resolution, available as 16-day composite from the NASA LP DAAC dataset. Vegetation activity trends were estimated and then normalized to the starting conditions to obtain the percentage variation (NDVI-PV) for the considered period. Information on the potential vulnerability and vegetation activity dynamics were classified into indexes and combined to obtain the final map of the actual vegetation vulnerability and to identify on-going degradation phenomena and priority sites within areas already compromised. As for the investigated area, this map shows a composite picture in which only a few values of high vulnerability are scattered along areas where medium-high vulnerability values generally prevail. Here, we singled out two kind of areas: one largely devoted to intensive agriculture, and other one mostly characterized by bare soils and sparse vegetation. On the contrary, a large part of natural and seminatural vegetation located along the Apennine chain does not show critical vulnerability values. By comparing the vegetation vulnerability map with the vulnerability map due to anthropic factors (pressure induced by agricultural and grazing activities, estimated by indicators derived from census data), we found correlation, confirming the anthropogenic cause of vulnerability and therefore the major role held by soil management in areas mainly devoted to intensive farming.

Large-scale experiments for the vulnerability analysis of buildings impacted and intruded by fluviatile torrential hazard processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sturm, Michael; Gems, Bernhard; Fuchs, Sven; Mazzorana, Bruno; Papathoma-Köhle, Maria; Aufleger, Markus

2016-04-01

In European mountain regions, losses due to torrential hazards are still considerable high despite the ongoing debate on an overall increasing or decreasing trend. Recent events in Austria severely revealed that due to technical and economic reasons, an overall protection of settlements in the alpine environment against torrential hazards is not feasible. On the side of the hazard process, events with unpredictable intensities may represent overload scenarios for existent protection structures in the torrent catchments. They bear a particular risk of significant losses in the living space. Although the importance of vulnerability is widely recognised, there is still a research gap concerning its assessment. Currently, potential losses at buildings due to torrential hazards and their comparison with reinstatement costs are determined by the use of empirical functions. Hence, relations of process intensities and the extent of losses, gathered by the analysis of historic hazard events and the information of object-specific restoration values, are used. This approach does not represent a physics-based and integral concept since relevant and often crucial processes, as the intrusion of the fluid-sediment-mixture into elements at risk, are not considered. Based on these findings, our work is targeted at extending these findings and models of present risk research in the context of an integral, more physics-based vulnerability analysis concept. Fluviatile torrential hazard processes and their impacts on the building envelope are experimentally modelled. Material intrusion processes are thereby explicitly considered. Dynamic impacts are gathered quantitatively and spatially distributed by the use of a large set of force transducers. The experimental tests are accomplished with artificial, vertical and skewed plates, including also openings for material intrusion. Further, the impacts on specific buildings within the test site of the work, the fan apex of the Schnannerbach torrent in Tyrol (Austria), are analysed in detail. A couple of buildings are entirely reconstructed within the physical scale model at the scale 1:30. They include basement and first floor and thereby all relevant openings on the building envelopes. The results from experimental modelling represent the data basis for further physics-based vulnerability analysis. Hence, the applied vulnerability analysis concept significantly extends the methods presently used in flood risk assessment. The results of the study are of basic importance for practical application, as they provide extensive information to support hazard zone mapping and management, as well as the planning of local technical protection measures.

Final ecosystem goods and services enhance societal relevance of contaminated-site remediation

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods Exposure to environmental stressors can adversely affect both human health and ecological receptors and impacts on the latter influence the community's overall vulnerability. Risk assessment guidance promotes conceptual site models to integrate multip...

Social Media: Strategic Asset or Operational Vulnerability?

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-04

Marine Corps message indicated that social networking sites “are particularly high risk due to information exposure, user generated content, and...Immediate Ban of Internet Social Networking Sites on Marine Corps Enterprise Network NIPRNET,” U.S. Marine Corps, accessed April 3, 2012, http... networking sites via the DoD’s unclassified computer network. The memorandum provided guidance on official use of social networking sites as well

Spatial modeling of environmental vulnerability of marine finfish aquaculture using GIS-based neuro-fuzzy techniques.

PubMed

Navas, Juan Moreno; Telfer, Trevor C; Ross, Lindsay G

2011-08-01

Combining GIS with neuro-fuzzy modeling has the advantage that expert scientific knowledge in coastal aquaculture activities can be incorporated into a geospatial model to classify areas particularly vulnerable to pollutants. Data on the physical environment and its suitability for aquaculture in an Irish fjard, which is host to a number of different aquaculture activities, were derived from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and GIS models. Subsequent incorporation into environmental vulnerability models, based on neuro-fuzzy techniques, highlighted localities particularly vulnerable to aquaculture development. The models produced an overall classification accuracy of 85.71%, with a Kappa coefficient of agreement of 81%, and were sensitive to different input parameters. A statistical comparison between vulnerability scores and nitrogen concentrations in sediment associated with salmon cages showed good correlation. Neuro-fuzzy techniques within GIS modeling classify vulnerability of coastal regions appropriately and have a role in policy decisions for aquaculture site selection. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Legal Bans on Pro-Suicide Web Sites: An Early Retrospective from Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pirkis, Jane; Neal, Luke; Dare, Andrew; Blood, R. Warwick; Studdert, David

2009-01-01

There are worldwide concerns that pro-suicide web sites may trigger suicidal behaviors among vulnerable individuals. In 2006, Australia became the first country to criminalize such sites, sparking heated debate. Concerns were expressed that the law casts the criminal net too widely; inappropriately interferes with the autonomy of those who wish to…

Nutritional assessment of free meal programs in San Francisco.

PubMed

Lyles, Courtney R; Drago-Ferguson, Soledad; Lopez, Andrea; Seligman, Hilary K

2013-05-30

Free meals often serve as a primary food source for adults living in poverty, particularly the homeless. We conducted a nutritional analysis of 22 meals from 6 free meal sites in San Francisco to determine macronutrient and micronutrient content. Meals provided too little fiber and too much fat but appropriate levels of cholesterol. They were also below target for potassium, calcium, and vitamins A and E. These findings may inform development of nutritional content standards for free meals, particularly for vulnerable patients who might have, or be at risk of developing, a chronic illness.

FT-IR and FT-Raman characterization and investigation of reactive properties of N-(3-iodo-4-methylphenyl)pyrazine-2-carboxamide by molecular dynamics simulations and DFT calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranjith, P. K.; Al-Abdullah, Ebtehal S.; Al-Omary, Fatmah A. M.; El-Emam, Ali A.; Anto, P. L.; Sheena, Mary Y.; Armaković, Stevan; Armaković, Sanja J.; Zitko, Jan; Dolezal, Martin; Van Alsenoy, C.

2017-05-01

The FT-IR and FT-Raman spectra of N-(3-iodo-4-methylphenyl)pyrazine-2-carboxamide were recorded and the experimentally observed wavenumbers are compared with the theoretically obtained wavenumbers. The redshift of the Nsbnd H stretching mode in the IR spectrum from the computed value indicated the weakening of the Nsbnd H bond. The ring breathing modes of the phenyl ring and pyrazine ring are assigned at 819 and 952 cm-1 theoretically. Using natural bond orbital analysis, the stability of the molecule arising from hyperconjugative interaction and charge delocalization has been analyzed. The most reactive sites in the molecule were identified by molecular electrostatic potential map. The calculations of the average local ionization energy (ALIE) were used for visualization and determination of molecule sites possibly prone to electrophilic attacks. Further information on possible reactive centers of title molecule has been obtained by calculations of Fukui functions. Vulnerability of title molecule towards autoxidation mechanism was investigated by calculations of bond dissociation energies (BDE), while vulnerability towards hydrolysis was investigated by calculations of radial distribution functions (RDF) as obtained after molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Molecular docking studies suggest that the compound might exhibit inhibitory activity against mGluRs.

Broad and potent HIV-1 neutralization by a human antibody that binds the gp41-gp120 interface

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Jinghe; Kang, Byong H.; Pancera, Marie

The isolation of human monoclonal antibodies is providing important insights into the specificities that underlie broad neutralization of HIV-1 (reviewed in ref. 1). Here we report a broad and extremely potent HIV-specific monoclonal antibody, termed 35O22, which binds a novel HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) epitope. 35O22 neutralized 62% of 181 pseudoviruses with a half-maximum inhibitory concentration (IC 50) <50 μg ml -1. The median IC 50 of neutralized viruses was 0.033 μg ml -1, among the most potent thus far described. 35O22 did not bind monomeric forms of Env tested, but did bind the trimeric BG505 SOSIP.664. Mutagenesis and amore » reconstruction by negative-stain electron microscopy of the Fab in complex with trimer revealed that it bound to a conserved epitope, which stretched across gp120 and gp41. The specificity of 35O22 represents a novel site of vulnerability on HIV Env, which serum analysis indicates to be commonly elicited by natural infection. Binding to this new site of vulnerability may thus be an important complement to current monoclonal-antibody-based approaches to immunotherapies, prophylaxis and vaccine design.« less

Synthesis of information on the effects of noise and disturbance on major haulout concentrations of Bering Sea pinnipeds. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, S.R.; Burns, J.J.; Malme, C.I.

1989-02-17

The study investigated the use of terrestrial haulout sites in the eastern Bering Sea by four species of pennipeds, northern fur seal, northern sea lion, harbor seal and pacific walrus. Historical information on the use of each site was summarized. Available information on the effects of airborne and waterborne noise, and human disturbance (from stationary and moving sources) was reviewed. The authors also conducted a detailed analysis of the acoustic environment of eight haulout sites that were representative of others used by each of the four species studied. The analyses included investigations of (1) characteristics airborne and underwater ambient noise,more » (2) characteristics of industrial noise sources, including aircraft, small boats, fishing trawlers and commercial cargo traffic, and (3) sound transmission loss in air, water, and through the air-water surface. As a means to evaluate the potential vulnerability of each haulout site to noise and disturbance, a quantitative rating system (IPSI) whereby an index of sensitivity was assigned to each site.« less

Aluminium concentrations in Swedish forest streams and co-variations with catchment characteristics.

PubMed

Löfgren, Stefan; Cory, Neil; Zetterberg, Therese

2010-07-01

The negative effects of elevated concentrations of inorganic aluminium on aquatic organisms are well documented. Acid deposition is often cited as a main driver behind the mobilisation and speciation of aluminium in soils and surface waters. In the study, we tested the hypothesis that sulphur deposition is the main driver for elevated concentrations of inorganic aluminium in 114 base poor, boreal Swedish streams. However, the deposition of anthropogenic sulphate has decreased substantially since it peaked in the 1970s, and at the current deposition levels, we hypothesise that local site parameters play an important role in determining vulnerability to elevated concentrations of inorganic aluminium in boreal stream waters. Presented here are the results of a principal components analysis of stream water chemistry, acid deposition data and local site variables, including forest composition and stem volume. It is shown that the concentrations of both organic and inorganic aluminium are not explained by either historical or current acid deposition, but are instead explained by a combination of local site characteristics. Sites with elevated concentrations of inorganic aluminium were characterised by small catchments (<500 ha) dominated by mature stands of Norway spruce with high stem volume. Using data from the Swedish National Forest Inventory the area of productive forest land in Sweden with a higher vulnerability for elevated inorganic aluminium concentrations in forests streams is approximately 1.5 million hectares or 7% of the total productive forest area; this is higher in the south of Sweden (10%) and lower in the north (2%). A better understanding of the effects of natural processes and forest management in controlling aquatic inorganic aluminium concentrations is therefore important in future discussions about measures against surface water acidification.

[Ecological vulnerability of coal mining area: a case study of Shengli Coalfield in Xilinguole of Inner Mongolia, China].

PubMed

Quan, Zhan-Jun; Li, Yuan; Li, Jun-Sheng; Han, Yu; Xiao, Neng-Wen; Fu, Meng-Di

2013-06-01

In this paper, an ecological vulnerability evaluation index system for the Shengli Coalfield in Xilinguole of Inner Mongolia was established, which included 16 factors in ecological sensitivity, natural and social pressure, and ecological recovery capacity, respectively. Based on the expert scoring method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), an ecological vulnerability model was built for the calculation of the regional ecological vulnerability by means of RS and GIS spatial analysis. An analysis of the relationships between land use and ecological vulnerability was also made, and the results were tested by spatial auto-correlation analysis. Overall, the ecological vulnerability of the study area was at medium-high level. The exploitation of four opencast areas in the Coalfield caused a significant increase of ecological vulnerability. Moreover, due to the effects of mine drained water and human activities, the 300 -2000 m around the opencast areas was turning into higher ecologically fragile area. With further exploitation, the whole Coalfield was evolved into moderate and heavy ecological vulnerability area, and the coal resources mining was a key factor in this process. The cluster analysis showed that the spatial distribution of the ecological vulnerability in the study area had reasonable clustering characteristics. To decrease the population density, control the grazing capacity of grassland, and regulate the ratios of construction land and cultivated land could be the optimal ways for resolving the natural and social pressure, and to increase the investment and improve the vegetation recovery coefficient could be the fundamental measures for decreasing the ecological vulnerability of the study area.

Towards a definition of orphaned and vulnerable children.

PubMed

Skinner, Donald; Tsheko, N; Mtero-Munyati, S; Segwabe, M; Chibatamoto, P; Mfecane, S; Chandiwana, B; Nkomo, N; Tlou, S; Chitiyo, G

2006-11-01

The HIV epidemic presents challenges including orphans and a large mass of children rendered vulnerable by the epidemic and other societal forces. Focus on orphaned and vulnerable children (OVC) is important, but needs accurate definition. Twelve focus group interviews of service providers, leaders in these communities, OVC and their caretakers were conducted at six project sites across Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe to extend this definition. The loss of a parent through death or desertion is an important aspect of vulnerability. Additional factors leading to vulnerability included severe chronic illness of a parent or caregiver, poverty, hunger, lack of access to services, inadequate clothing or shelter, overcrowding, deficient caretakers, and factors specific to the child, including disability, direct experience of physical or sexual violence, or severe chronic illness. Important questions raised in this research include the long-term implications for the child and community, and the contribution of culture systems.

Semi-quantitative assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings for the landslide risk analysis. A case study in the Loures municipality, Lisbon district, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillard-Gonçalves, Clémence; Zêzere, José Luis; Pereira, Susana; Garcia, Ricardo

2016-04-01

The physical vulnerability of the buildings of Loures (a Portuguese municipality) to landslides was assessed, and the landslide risk was computed as the product of the landslide hazard by the vulnerability and the market economic value of the buildings. First, the hazard was assessed by combining the spatio-temporal probability and the frequency-magnitude relationship of the landslides, which was established by plotting the probability of a landslide area. The susceptibility of deep-seated and shallow landslides was assessed by a bi-variate statistical method and was mapped. The annual and multiannual spatio-temporal probabilities were estimated, providing a landslide hazard model. Then, an assessment of buildings vulnerability to landslides, based on an inquiry of a pool of landslide European experts, was developed and applied to the study area. The inquiry was based on nine magnitude scenarios and four structural building types. A sub-pool of the landslide experts who know the study area was extracted from the pool, and the variability of the answers coming from the pool and the sub-pool was assessed with standard deviation. Moreover, the average vulnerability of the basic geographic entities was compared by changing the map unit and applying the vulnerability to all the buildings of a test site (included in the study area), the inventory of which was listed on the field. Next, the market economic value of the buildings was calculated using an adaptation of the Portuguese Tax Services approach. Finally, the annual and multiannual landslide risk was computed for the nine landslide magnitude scenarios and different spatio-temporal probabilities by multiplying the potential loss (Vulnerability × Economic Value) by the hazard probability. As a rule, the vulnerability values given by the sub-pool of experts who know the study area are higher than those given by the European experts, namely for the high magnitude landslides. The obtained vulnerabilities vary from 0.2 to 1 as a function of the structural building types and the landslide magnitude, and are maximal for 10 and 20 meters landslide depths. However, the highest annual risk was found for the 3 m deep landslides, with a maximum value of 25.68 € per 5 m pixel, which is explained by the combination of a relatively high frequency in the Loures municipality with a substantial potential damage.

A "weight of evidence" approach for the integration of environmental "triad" data to assess ecological risk and biological vulnerability.

PubMed

Dagnino, Alessandro; Sforzini, Susanna; Dondero, Francesco; Fenoglio, Stefano; Bona, Elisa; Jensen, John; Viarengo, Aldo

2008-07-01

A new Expert Decision Support System (EDSS) that can integrate Triad data for assessing environmental risk and biological vulnerability at contaminated sites has been developed. Starting with ecosystem relevance, the EDSS assigns different weights to the results obtained from Triad disciplines. The following parameters have been employed: 1) chemical soil analyses (revealing the presence of potentially dangerous substances), 2) ecotoxicological bioassays (utilizing classical endpoints such as survival and reproduction rates), 3) biomarkers (showing sublethal pollutant effects), and 4) ecological parameters (assessing changes in community structure and functions). For each Triad discipline, the EDSS compares the data obtained at the studied field sites with reference values and calculates different 0-1 indexes (e.g., Chemical Risk Index, Ecotoxicological Risk Index, and Ecological Risk Index). The EDSS output consists of 3 indexes: 1) Environmental Risk index (EnvRI), quantifying the levels of biological damage at population-community level, 2) Biological Vulnerability Index (BVI), assessing the potential threats to biological equilibriums, and 3) Genotoxicity Index (GTI), screening genotoxicity effects. The EDSS has been applied in the integration of a battery of Triad data obtained during the European Union-funded Life Intervention in the Fraschetta Area (LINFA) project, which has been carried out in order to estimate the potential risk from soils of a highly anthropized area (Alessandria, Italy) mainly impacted by deposition of atmospheric pollutants. Results obtained during 4 seasonal sampling campaigns (2004-2005) show maximum values of EnvRI in sites A and B (characterized by industrial releases) and lower levels in site D (affected by vehicular traffic emissions). All 3 potentially polluted sites have shown high levels of BVI and GTI, suggesting a general change from reference conditions (site C).

Multi-level significance of vulnerability indicators. Case study: Eastern Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanga, I. C.; Grozavu, A.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment aims, most frequently, to emphasize internal fragility of a system comparing to a reference standard, to similar systems or in relation to a given hazard. Internal fragility, either biophysical or structural, may affect the capacity to predict, to prepare for, to cope with or to recover from a disaster. Thus, vulnerability is linked to resilience and adaptive capacity. From local level to global one, vulnerability factors and corresponding indicators are different and their significance must be tested and validated in a well-structured conceptual and methodological framework. In this paper, the authors aim to show the real vulnerability of rural settlements in Eastern Romania in a multi-level approach. The research area, Tutova Hills, counts about 3421 sq.km and more than 200.000 inhabitants in 421 villages characterized by deficient accessibility, lack of endowments, subsistential agriculture, high pressure on natural environment (especially on forest and soil resources), poverty and aging process of population. Factors that could influence the vulnerability of these rural settlements have been inventoried and assigned into groups through a cluster analysis: habitat and technical urban facilities, infrastructure, economical, social and demographical indicators, environment quality, management of emergency situations etc. Firstly, the main difficulty was to convert qualitative variable in quantitative indicators and to standardize all values to make possible mathematical and statistical processing of data. Secondly, the great variability of vulnerability factors, their different measuring units and their high amplitude of variation require different method of standardization in order to obtain values between zero (minimum vulnerability) and one (maximum vulnerability). Final vulnerability indicators were selected and integrated in a general scheme, according to their significance resulted from an appropriate factor analysis: linear and logistic regression, varimax rotation, multiple-criteria decision analysis, weight of evidence, multi-criteria evaluation method etc. The approach started from the local level which allows a functional and structural analysis and was progressively translated to an upper level and to a spatial analysis. The model shows that changing the level of analysis diminishes the functional significance of some indicators and increases the capacity of discretization in the case of others, highlighting the spatial and functional complexity of vulnerability.

Towards stressor-specific macroinvertebrate indices: Which traits and taxonomic groups are associated with vulnerable and tolerant taxa?

PubMed

Berger, Elisabeth; Haase, Peter; Schäfer, Ralf B; Sundermann, Andrea

2018-04-01

Monitoring of macroinvertebrate communities is frequently used to define the ecological health status of rivers. Ideally, biomonitoring should also give an indication on the major stressors acting on the macroinvertebrate communities supporting the selection of appropriate management measures. However, most indices are affected by more than one stressor. Biological traits (e.g. size, generation time, reproduction) could potentially lead to more stressor-specific indices. However, such an approach has rarely been tested. In this study we classify 324 macroinvertebrate taxa as vulnerable (decreasing abundances) or tolerant (increasing abundances) along 21 environmental gradients (i.e. nutrients, major ions, oxygen and micropollutants) from 422 monitoring sites in Germany using Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis (TITAN). Subsequently, we investigate which biological traits and taxonomic groups are associated with taxa classified as vulnerable or tolerant with regard to specific gradients. The response of most taxa towards different gradients was similar and especially high for correlated gradients. Traits associated with vulnerable taxa across most gradients included: larval aquatic life stages, isolated cemented eggs, reproductive cycle per year <1, scrapers, aerial and aquatic active dispersal and plastron respiration. Traits associated with tolerant taxa included: adult aquatic life stages, polyvoltinism, ovoviviparity or egg clutches in vegetation, food preference for dead animals or living microinvertebrates, substrate preference for macrophytes, microphytes, silt or mud and a body size >2-4cm. Our results question whether stressor-specific indices based on macroinvertebrate assemblages can be achieved using single traits, because we observed that similar taxa responded to different gradients and also similar traits were associated with vulnerable and tolerant taxa across a variety of water quality gradients. Future studies should examine whether combinations of traits focusing on specific taxonomic groups achieve higher stressor specificity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The assessment of vulnerability to natural disasters in China by using the DEA method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei Yiming; Fan Ying; Lu Cong

2004-05-01

China has been greatly affected by natural disasters, so that it is of great importance to analyze the impact of natural disasters on national economy. Usually, the frequency of disasters or absolute loss inflicted by disasters is the first priority to be considered, while the capability of regions to overcome disasters is ignored. The concept of vulnerability is used to measure the capability to overcome disasters in different regions with distinctive economies. Traditional methods for vulnerability analysis calculate sub-indices based on disaster frequency, loss, the economic impact and the population of each region, and then add the sub-indices to getmore » a composite index for regional vulnerability. But those methods are sensitive to the weights selected for sub-indices when multi-indexes are added up to get an index of total vulnerability. The analytic results are less convincing because of the subjectivity of different weighting methods. A data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based model for analysis of regional vulnerability to natural disasters is presented here to improve upon the traditional method. This paper systematically describes the DEA method to evaluate the relative severity of disasters in each region. A model for regional vulnerability analysis is developed, based on the annual governmental statistics from 1989 to 2000. The regional vulnerabilities in China's mainland are illustrated as a case study, and a new method for the classification of regional vulnerability to natural disasters in China is proposed.« less

Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

2018-06-01

To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach.

PubMed

Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

2018-06-01

To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of Science TM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

The concept of 'vulnerability' in research ethics: an in-depth analysis of policies and guidelines.

PubMed

Bracken-Roche, Dearbhail; Bell, Emily; Macdonald, Mary Ellen; Racine, Eric

2017-02-07

The concept of vulnerability has held a central place in research ethics guidance since its introduction in the United States Belmont Report in 1979. It signals mindfulness for researchers and research ethics boards to the possibility that some participants may be at higher risk of harm or wrong. Despite its important intended purpose and widespread use, there is considerable disagreement in the scholarly literature about the meaning and delineation of vulnerability, stemming from a perceived lack of guidance within research ethics standards. The aim of this study was to assess the concept of vulnerability as it is employed in major national and international research ethics policies and guidelines. We conducted an in-depth analysis of 11 (five national and six international) research ethics policies and guidelines, exploring their discussions of the definition, application, normative justification and implications of vulnerability. Few policies and guidelines explicitly defined vulnerability, instead relying on implicit assumptions and the delineation of vulnerable groups and sources of vulnerability. On the whole, we found considerable richness in the content on vulnerability across policies, but note that this relies heavily on the structure imposed on the data through our analysis. Our results underscore a need for policymakers to revisit the guidance on vulnerability in research ethics, and we propose that a process of stakeholder engagement would well-support this effort.

Decision Tree based Prediction and Rule Induction for Groundwater Trichloroethene (TCE) Pollution Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J.; Yoo, K.

2013-12-01

For groundwater resource conservation, it is important to accurately assess groundwater pollution sensitivity or vulnerability. In this work, we attempted to use data mining approach to assess groundwater pollution vulnerability in a TCE (trichloroethylene) contaminated Korean industrial site. The conventional DRASTIC method failed to describe TCE sensitivity data with a poor correlation with hydrogeological properties. Among the different data mining methods such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR), Case Base Reasoning (CBR), and Decision Tree (DT), the accuracy and consistency of Decision Tree (DT) was the best. According to the following tree analyses with the optimal DT model, the failure of the conventional DRASTIC method in fitting with TCE sensitivity data may be due to the use of inaccurate weight values of hydrogeological parameters for the study site. These findings provide a proof of concept that DT based data mining approach can be used in predicting and rule induction of groundwater TCE sensitivity without pre-existing information on weights of hydrogeological properties.

Efficient Web Vulnerability Detection Tool for Sleeping Giant-Cross Site Request Forgery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parimala, G.; Sangeetha, M.; AndalPriyadharsini, R.

2018-04-01

Now day’s web applications are very high in the rate of usage due to their user friendly environment and getting any information via internet but these web applications are affected by lot of threats. CSRF attack is one of the serious threats to web applications which is based on the vulnerabilities present in the normal web request and response of HTTP protocol. It is hard to detect but hence still it is present in most of the existing web applications. In CSRF attack, without user knowledge the unwanted actions on a reliable websites are forced to happen. So it is placed in OWASP’s top 10 Web Application attacks list. My proposed work is to do a real time scan of CSRF vulnerability attack in given URL of the web applications as well as local host address for any organization using python language. Client side detection of CSRF is depended on Form count which is presented in that given web site.

Vulnerability analysis and critical areas identification of the power systems under terrorist attacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuliang; Zhang, Jianhua; Zhao, Mingwei; Min, Xu

2017-05-01

This paper takes central China power grid (CCPG) as an example, and analyzes the vulnerability of the power systems under terrorist attacks. To simulate the intelligence of terrorist attacks, a method of critical attack area identification according to community structures is introduced. Meanwhile, three types of vulnerability models and the corresponding vulnerability metrics are given for comparative analysis. On this basis, influence of terrorist attacks on different critical areas is studied. Identifying the vulnerability of different critical areas will be conducted. At the same time, vulnerabilities of critical areas under different tolerance parameters and different vulnerability models are acquired and compared. Results show that only a few number of vertex disruptions may cause some critical areas collapse completely, they can generate great performance losses the whole systems. Further more, the variation of vulnerability values under different scenarios is very large. Critical areas which can cause greater damage under terrorist attacks should be given priority of protection to reduce vulnerability. The proposed method can be applied to analyze the vulnerability of other infrastructure systems, they can help decision makers search mitigation action and optimum protection strategy.

Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

2015-12-01

Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the Gulf of Mexico, and improved the accuracy and resolution of the Probabilistic Storm Surge model.

A multi-disciplinary approach to evaluate vulnerability and risks of pluvial floods under changing climate: the case study of the municipality of Venice (Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Coppola, Erika; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2015-04-01

Global climate change is expected to affect the intensity and frequency of extreme events (e.g. heat waves, drought, heavy precipitations events) leading to increasing natural disasters and damaging events (e.g. storms, pluvial floods and coastal flooding) worldwide. Especially in urban areas, disasters risks can be exacerbated by changes in exposure and vulnerability patterns (i.e. urbanization, population growth) and should be addressed by adopting a multi-disciplinary approach. A Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrating climate and environmental sciences with bottom-up participative processes was developed and applied to the urban territory of the municipality of Venice in order to evaluate the potential consequences of climate change on pluvial flood risk in urban areas. Based on the consecutive analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risks, the RRA methodology is a screening risk tool to identify and prioritize major elements at risk (e.g. residential, commercial areas and infrastructures) and to localize sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by flood risk due to heavy precipitation events, in the future scenario (2041-2050). From the early stages of its development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach to select and score site-specific vulnerability factors (e.g. slope, permeability of the soil, past flooded areas) and to consider the requests and perspectives of local stakeholders of the North Adriatic region, by means of interactive workshops, surveys and discussions. The main outputs of the assessment are risk and vulnerability maps and statistics aimed at increasing awareness about the potential effect of climate change on pluvial flood risks and at identifying hot-spot areas where future adaptation actions should be required to decrease physical-environmental vulnerabilities or building resilience and coping capacity of human society to climate change. The overall risk assessment methodology and the results of its application to the territory of the municipality of Venice will be here presented and discussed.

An Extreme-Value Approach to Anomaly Vulnerability Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Everett, Chris; Maggio, Gaspare; Groen, Frank

2010-01-01

The objective of this paper is to present a method for importance analysis in parametric probabilistic modeling where the result of interest is the identification of potential engineering vulnerabilities associated with postulated anomalies in system behavior. In the context of Accident Precursor Analysis (APA), under which this method has been developed, these vulnerabilities, designated as anomaly vulnerabilities, are conditions that produce high risk in the presence of anomalous system behavior. The method defines a parameter-specific Parameter Vulnerability Importance measure (PVI), which identifies anomaly risk-model parameter values that indicate the potential presence of anomaly vulnerabilities, and allows them to be prioritized for further investigation. This entails analyzing each uncertain risk-model parameter over its credible range of values to determine where it produces the maximum risk. A parameter that produces high system risk for a particular range of values suggests that the system is vulnerable to the modeled anomalous conditions, if indeed the true parameter value lies in that range. Thus, PVI analysis provides a means of identifying and prioritizing anomaly-related engineering issues that at the very least warrant improved understanding to reduce uncertainty, such that true vulnerabilities may be identified and proper corrective actions taken.

Utilizing Semantic Big Data for realizing a National-scale Infrastructure Vulnerability Analysis System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chinthavali, Supriya; Shankar, Mallikarjun

Critical Infrastructure systems(CIs) such as energy, water, transportation and communication are highly interconnected and mutually dependent in complex ways. Robust modeling of CIs interconnections is crucial to identify vulnerabilities in the CIs. We present here a national-scale Infrastructure Vulnerability Analysis System (IVAS) vision leveraging Se- mantic Big Data (SBD) tools, Big Data, and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) tools. We survey existing ap- proaches on vulnerability analysis of critical infrastructures and discuss relevant systems and tools aligned with our vi- sion. Next, we present a generic system architecture and discuss challenges including: (1) Constructing and manag- ing a CI network-of-networks graph,more » (2) Performing analytic operations at scale, and (3) Interactive visualization of ana- lytic output to generate meaningful insights. We argue that this architecture acts as a baseline to realize a national-scale network based vulnerability analysis system.« less

An Integrated Approach for Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düzgün, H. S.; Yücemen, M. S.; Kalaycioglu, H. S.

2009-04-01

The earthquake risk for an urban area has increased over the years due to the increasing complexities in urban environments. The main reasons are the location of major cities in hazard prone areas, growth in urbanization and population and rising wealth measures. In recent years physical examples of these factors are observed through the growing costs of major disasters in urban areas which have stimulated a demand for in-depth evaluation of possible strategies to manage the large scale damaging effects of earthquakes. Understanding and formulation of urban earthquake risk requires consideration of a wide range of risk aspects, which can be handled by developing an integrated approach. In such an integrated approach, an interdisciplinary view should be incorporated into the risk assessment. Risk assessment for an urban area requires prediction of vulnerabilities related to elements at risk in the urban area and integration of individual vulnerability assessments. However, due to complex nature of an urban environment, estimating vulnerabilities and integrating them necessities development of integrated approaches in which vulnerabilities of social, economical, structural (building stock and infrastructure), cultural and historical heritage are estimated for a given urban area over a given time period. In this study an integrated urban earthquake vulnerability assessment framework, which considers vulnerability of urban environment in a holistic manner and performs the vulnerability assessment for the smallest administrative unit, namely at neighborhood scale, is proposed. The main motivation behind this approach is the inability to implement existing vulnerability assessment methodologies for countries like Turkey, where the required data are usually missing or inadequate and decision makers seek for prioritization of their limited resources in risk reduction in the administrative districts from which they are responsible. The methodology integrates socio-economical, structural, coastal, ground condition, organizational vulnerabilities, as well as accessibility to critical services within the framework. The proposed framework has the following eight components: Seismic hazard analysis, soil response analysis, tsunami inundation analysis, structural vulnerability analysis, socio-economic vulnerability analysis, accessibility to critical services, GIS-based integrated vulnerability assessment, and visualization of vulnerabilities in 3D virtual city model The integrated model for various vulnerabilities obtained for the urban area is developed in GIS environment by using individual vulnerability assessments for considered elements at risk and serve for establishing the backbone of the spatial decision support system. The stages followed in the model are: Determination of a common mapping unit for each aspect of urban earthquake vulnerability, formation of a geo-database for the vulnerabilities, evaluation of urban vulnerability based on multi attribute utility theory with various weighting algorithms, mapping of the evaluated integrated earthquake risk in geographic information systems (GIS) in the neighborhood scale. The framework is also applicable to larger geographical mapping scales, for example, the building scale. When illustrating the results in building scale, 3-D visualizations with remote sensing data is used so that decision-makers can easily interpret the outputs. The proposed vulnerability assessment framework is flexible and can easily be applied to urban environments at various geographical scales with different mapping units. The obtained total vulnerability maps for the urban area provide a baseline for the development of risk reduction strategies for the decision makers. Moreover, as several aspects of elements at risk for an urban area is considered through vulnerability analyses, effect on changes in vulnerability conditions on the total can easily be determined. The developed approach also enables decision makers to monitor temporal and spatial changes in the urban environment due to implementation of risk reduction strategies.

Chemical plants remain vulnerable to terrorists: a call to action.

PubMed

Lippin, Tobi Mae; McQuiston, Thomas H; Bradley-Bull, Kristin; Burns-Johnson, Toshiba; Cook, Linda; Gill, Michael L; Howard, Donna; Seymour, Thomas A; Stephens, Doug; Williams, Brian K

2006-09-01

U.S. chemical plants currently have potentially catastrophic vulnerabilities as terrorist targets. The possible consequences of these vulnerabilities echo from the tragedies of the Bhopal incident in 1984 to the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001 and, most recently, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Findings from a 2004 nationwide participatory research study of 125 local union leaders at sites with very large volumes of highly hazardous chemicals suggest that voluntary efforts to achieve chemical plant security are not succeeding. Study respondents reported that companies had only infrequently taken actions that are most effective in preventing or in preparing to respond to a terrorist threat. In addition, companies reportedly often failed to involve key stakeholders, including workers, local unions, and the surrounding communities, in these efforts. The environmental health community thus has an opportunity to play a key role in advocating for and supporting improvements in prevention of and preparation for terrorist attacks. Policy-level recommendations to redress chemical site vulnerabilities and the related ongoing threats to the nation's security are as follows: a) specify detailed requirements for chemical site assessment and security ; b) mandate audit inspections supported by significant penalties for cases of noncompliance ; c) require progress toward achieving inherently safer processes, including the minimizing of storage of highly hazardous chemicals ; d) examine and require additional effective actions in prevention, emergency preparedness, and response and remediation ; e) mandate and fund the upgrading of emergency communication systems ; and f) involve workers and community members in plan creation and equip and prepare them to prevent and respond effectively to an incident.

Chemical Plants Remain Vulnerable to Terrorists: A Call to Action

PubMed Central

Lippin, Tobi Mae; McQuiston, Thomas H.; Bradley-Bull, Kristin; Burns-Johnson, Toshiba; Cook, Linda; Gill, Michael L.; Howard, Donna; Seymour, Thomas A.; Stephens, Doug; Williams, Brian K.

2006-01-01

U.S. chemical plants currently have potentially catastrophic vulnerabilities as terrorist targets. The possible consequences of these vulnerabilities echo from the tragedies of the Bhopal incident in 1984 to the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001 and, most recently, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Findings from a 2004 nationwide participatory research study of 125 local union leaders at sites with very large volumes of highly hazardous chemicals suggest that voluntary efforts to achieve chemical plant security are not succeeding. Study respondents reported that companies had only infrequently taken actions that are most effective in preventing or in preparing to respond to a terrorist threat. In addition, companies reportedly often failed to involve key stakeholders, including workers, local unions, and the surrounding communities, in these efforts. The environmental health community thus has an opportunity to play a key role in advocating for and supporting improvements in prevention of and preparation for terrorist attacks. Policy-level recommendations to redress chemical site vulnerabilities and the related ongoing threats to the nation’s security are as follows: a) specify detailed requirements for chemical site assessment and security; b) mandate audit inspections supported by significant penalties for cases of noncompliance; c) require progress toward achieving inherently safer processes, including the minimizing of storage of highly hazardous chemicals; d) examine and require additional effective actions in prevention, emergency preparedness, and response and remediation; e) mandate and fund the upgrading of emergency communication systems; and f) involve workers and community members in plan creation and equip and prepare them to prevent and respond effectively to an incident. PMID:16966080

A Study to Understand the Potential Vulnerabilities to the Foundations of Historic Structures in Coastal Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, C. L.; Curran, B.; Jefferson, M.; Routhier, M.; Mulukutla, G. K.

2011-12-01

Sea level rise, one of the most important manifestations of climate change is expected to result in increased coastal erosion and storm surge flooding. This work reports on a project undertaken to assess the vulnerability of foundations of historic structures in coastal areas to the potential consequences from climate change resulting from increased storm surge flooding. Foundations of historic buildings are especially vulnerable to the seepage and ground water intrusion. Many historic structures themselves are used to house valuable historic collections making it all the important to preserve and protect these structures. Data collected from a field subsurface geophysical survey, geospatial field survey, and a simulation to understand the hydrological conditions of the site useful to build an understanding of threats to foundations of historic structures located on the coast. The study site chosen for this project is the Strawbery Banke Living History Museum, in Portsmouth, NH. Located very close to the banks of the Piscataqua River at its meeting point with the Atlantic Ocean, it consists of many buildings of historical importance dating as far back as 1690. Upstream of the river is the tidal estuary system, the Great Bay which itself is formed by a confluence of seven major rivers, making it a highly dynamic, tide-dominated body of fresh and saltwater. Strawbery Banke is representative of historic structures, located on the Northeastern coast of the US, that will likely be impacted by climate change. The primary threat to the sub-structures for the site is Puddle Dock; a tidal inlet , that lies at the heart of the facility, that once provided direct river access to Strawbery Banke (and since filled around 1900). Results from the long term deployment of in -situ water level loggers in test wells, temperature and relative humidity sensors, and a ground penetration radar survey of the Puddle Dock, along with the detailed fine-scale elevation survey of the site provide a window into the seasonality of ground water levels and the dynamic equilibrium of fresh and saltwater. Initial analysis of the data indicates that at present Puddle Dock, acts as a conduit for tidal flows, albeit in a restrained manner. This can be attributed to the very unscientific way that it was filled perhaps with garbage, and other waste. It is anticipated the principles applied for this work can be replicated for assessing the vulnerability of other at-risk historical structures in the Northeastern US. Support for purchase of hardware came from National Geographic Society's Waitt Grant program, and the Undergraduate scholarships support was provided by a grant from University of New Hampshire's Joan and James Leitzel Center for Mathematics, Science and Engineering Education.

Lessons from Star Carr on the vulnerability of organic archaeological remains to environmental change

PubMed Central

Milner, Nicky; Panter, Ian; Penkman, Kirsty E. H.

2016-01-01

Examples of wetland deposits can be found across the globe and are known for preserving organic archaeological and environmental remains that are vitally important to our understanding of past human–environment interactions. The Mesolithic site of Star Carr (Yorkshire, United Kingdom) represents one of the most influential archives of human response to the changing climate at the end of the last glacial in Northern Europe. A hallmark of the site since its discovery in 1948 has been the exceptional preservation of its organic remains. Disturbingly, recent excavations have suggested that the geochemistry of the site is no longer conducive to such remarkable survival of organic archaeological and environmental materials. Microcosm (laboratory-based) burial experiments have been undertaken, alongside analysis of artifacts excavated from the site, to assess the effect of these geochemical changes on the remaining archaeological material. By applying a suite of macroscopic and molecular analyses, we demonstrate that the geochemical changes at Star Carr are contributing to the inexorable and rapid loss of valuable archaeological and paleoenvironmental information. Our findings have global implications for other wetland sites, particularly archaeological sites preserved in situ. PMID:27799567

A pragmatic analysis of vulnerability in clinical research.

PubMed

Wendler, David

2017-09-01

Identifying which subjects are vulnerable, and implementing safeguards to protect them, is widely regarded as essential to clinical research. Commentators have endorsed a number of responses to these challenges and have thereby made significant progress in understanding vulnerability in clinical research. At the same time, this literature points to a central contradiction which calls into question its potential to protect vulnerable subjects in practice. Specifically, analysis suggests that all human subjects are vulnerable and vulnerability in clinical research is comparative and context dependent, in the sense that individuals are vulnerable relative to others and in some contexts only. Yet, if everyone is vulnerable, there seems to be no point in citing the vulnerability of some individuals. Moreover, the conclusion that everyone is vulnerable seems inconsistent with the claims that vulnerability is comparative and context dependent, raising concern over whether it will be possible to develop a comprehensive account of vulnerability that is internally consistent. The solution to this dilemma lies in recognition of the fact that the practical significance of claims regarding vulnerability depends on the context in which they are used. The claims that appear to lead to the central contradiction are in fact accurate conclusions that follow from different uses of the term 'vulnerability'. The present manuscript describes this 'pragmatic' approach to vulnerability in clinical research and considers its implications for ensuring that subjects receive appropriate protection. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Vulnerability to cavitation, hydraulic efficiency, growth and survival in an insular pine (Pinus canariensis).

PubMed

López, Rosana; López de Heredia, Unai; Collada, Carmen; Cano, Francisco Javier; Emerson, Brent C; Cochard, Hervé; Gil, Luis

2013-06-01

It is widely accepted that hydraulic failure due to xylem embolism is a key factor contributing to drought-induced mortality in trees. In the present study, an attempt is made to disentangle phenotypic plasticity from genetic variation in hydraulic traits across the entire distribution area of a tree species to detect adaptation to local environments. A series of traits related to hydraulics (vulnerability to cavitation and hydraulic conductivity in branches), growth performance and leaf mass per area were assessed in eight Pinus canariensis populations growing in two common gardens under contrasting environments. In addition, the neutral genetic variability (FST) and the genetic differentiation of phenotypic variation (QST) were compared in order to identify the evolutionary forces acting on these traits. The variability for hydraulic traits was largely due to phenotypic plasticity. Nevertheless, the vulnerability to cavitation displayed a significant genetic variability (approx. 5 % of the explained variation), and a significant genetic × environment interaction (between 5 and 19 % of the explained variation). The strong correlation between vulnerability to cavitation and survival in the xeric common garden (r = -0·81; P < 0·05) suggests a role for the former in the adaptation to xeric environments. Populations from drier sites and higher temperature seasonality were less vulnerable to cavitation than those growing at mesic sites. No trade-off between xylem safety and efficiency was detected. QST of parameters of the vulnerability curve (0·365 for P50 and the slope of the vulnerability curve and 0·452 for P88) differed substantially from FST (0·091), indicating divergent selection. In contrast, genetic drift alone was found to be sufficient to explain patterns of differentiation for xylem efficiency and growth. The ability of P. canariensis to inhabit a wide range of ecosystems seemed to be associated with high phenotypic plasticity and some degree of local adaptations of xylem and leaf traits. Resistance to cavitation conferred adaptive potential for this species to adapt successfully to xeric conditions.

Using Generic and Pesticide DRASTIC GIS-based models for vulnerability assessment of the Quaternary aquifer at Sohag, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Ayman A.

2009-07-01

Groundwater resources in the Sohag area, Egypt are currently threatened by contamination from municipal and industrial activities, and agricultural pesticides. To cope with the growing population, there has been development in the desert zone on both sides of the Nile Valley including agricultural investment areas, wastewater disposal sites, new urban areas, and industry. Use of agrochemicals in the old cultivated and newly reclaimed lands and wastewater disposal sites in the study area represent the most hazardous contamination sources. Prevention of contamination and management of the Quaternary aquifer is urgently needed. To address vulnerability assessment of the Quaternary aquifer, the Generic and Pesticide DRASTIC GIS-based models have been used. The Generic DRASTIC index ranged between 94 and 189, and the Pesticide DRASTIC index ranged between 94 and 226. The results showed that 83% of the Quaternary aquifer is characterized by the high and very high vulnerability classes to municipal, industrial and agricultural pesticides contamination. It was found that nearly all the development projects are located in the very high vulnerability class areas. Management alternatives for the Quaternary aquifer may be improved by application of these models, allowing sensitive groundwater sources to be protected for continuing use in the future.

Vulnerability of streams to legacy nitrate sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Duff, John H.; Saad, David A.; Spahr, Norman E.; Wolock, David M.

2013-01-01

The influence of hydrogeologic setting on the susceptibility of streams to legacy nitrate was examined at seven study sites having a wide range of base flow index (BFI) values. BFI is the ratio of base flow to total streamflow volume. The portion of annual stream nitrate loads from base flow was strongly correlated with BFI. Furthermore, dissolved oxygen concentrations in streambed pore water were significantly higher in high BFI watersheds than in low BFI watersheds suggesting that geochemical conditions favor nitrate transport through the bed when BFI is high. Results from a groundwater-surface water interaction study at a high BFI watershed indicate that decades old nitrate-laden water is discharging to this stream. These findings indicate that high nitrate levels in this stream may be sustained for decades to come regardless of current practices. It is hypothesized that a first approximation of stream vulnerability to legacy nutrients may be made by geospatial analysis of watersheds with high nitrogen inputs and a strong connection to groundwater (e.g., high BFI).

Drought response of five conifer species under contrasting water availability suggests high vulnerability of Norway spruce and European larch.

PubMed

Lévesque, Mathieu; Saurer, Matthias; Siegwolf, Rolf; Eilmann, Britta; Brang, Peter; Bugmann, Harald; Rigling, Andreas

2013-10-01

The ability of tree species to cope with anticipated decrease in water availability is still poorly understood. We evaluated the potential of Norway spruce, Scots pine, European larch, black pine, and Douglas-fir to withstand drought in a drier future climate by analyzing their past growth and physiological responses at a xeric and a mesic site in Central Europe using dendroecological methods. Earlywood, latewood, and total ring width, as well as the δ(13) C and δ(18) O in early- and latewood were measured and statistically related to a multiscalar soil water deficit index from 1961 to 2009. At the xeric site, δ(13) C values of all species were strongly linked to water deficits that lasted longer than 11 months, indicating a long-term cumulative effect on the carbon pool. Trees at the xeric site were particularly sensitive to soil water recharge in the preceding autumn and early spring. The native species European larch and Norway spruce, growing close to their dry distribution limit at the xeric site, were found to be the most vulnerable species to soil water deficits. At the mesic site, summer water availability was critical for all species, whereas water availability prior to the growing season was less important. Trees at the mesic were more vulnerable to water deficits of shorter duration than the xeric site. We conclude that if summers become drier, trees growing on mesic sites will undergo significant growth reductions, whereas at their dry distribution limit in the Alps, tree growth of the highly sensitive spruce and larch may collapse, likely inducing dieback and compromising the provision of ecosystem services. However, the magnitude of these changes will be mediated strongly by soil water recharge in winter and thus water availability at the beginning of the growing season. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating social and ecological vulnerability of coral reef fisheries to climate change.

PubMed

Cinner, Joshua E; Huchery, Cindy; Darling, Emily S; Humphries, Austin T; Graham, Nicholas A J; Hicks, Christina C; Marshall, Nadine; McClanahan, Tim R

2013-01-01

There is an increasing need to evaluate the links between the social and ecological dimensions of human vulnerability to climate change. We use an empirical case study of 12 coastal communities and associated coral reefs in Kenya to assess and compare five key ecological and social components of the vulnerability of coastal social-ecological systems to temperature induced coral mortality [specifically: 1) environmental exposure; 2) ecological sensitivity; 3) ecological recovery potential; 4) social sensitivity; and 5) social adaptive capacity]. We examined whether ecological components of vulnerability varied between government operated no-take marine reserves, community-based reserves, and openly fished areas. Overall, fished sites were marginally more vulnerable than community-based and government marine reserves. Social sensitivity was indicated by the occupational composition of each community, including the importance of fishing relative to other occupations, as well as the susceptibility of different fishing gears to the effects of coral bleaching on target fish species. Key components of social adaptive capacity varied considerably between the communities. Together, these results show that different communities have relative strengths and weaknesses in terms of social-ecological vulnerability to climate change.

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

PubMed

Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

2016-03-15

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analyzing the distribution of hydrogeomorphic characteristics across Pennsylvania as a precursor to Phosphorus Index modifications

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Phosphorus site assessment is used nationally and internationally to assess the vulnerability of agricultural fields to phosphorus (P) loss and identify “critical source areas” controlling watershed P export. Current efforts to update P site assessment tools must ensure that the tools are representa...

Vulnerability assessment of medieval civic towers as a tool for retrofitting design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Casciati, Sara; Faravelli, Lucia

2008-07-08

The seismic vulnerability of an ancient civic bell-tower is studied. Rather than seeing it as an intermediate stage toward a risk analysis, the assessment of vulnerability is here pursued for the purpose of optimizing the retrofit design. The vulnerability curves are drawn by carrying out a single time history analysis of a model calibrated on the basis of experimental data. From the results of this analysis, the medians of three selected performance parameters are estimated, and they are used to compute, for each of them, the probability of exceeding or attaining the three corresponding levels of light, moderate and severemore » damage. The same numerical model is then used to incorporate the effects of several retrofitting solutions and to re-estimate the associated vulnerability curves. The ultimate goal is to provide a numerical tool able to drive the optimization process of a retrofit design by the comparison of the vulnerability estimates associated with the different retrofitting solutions.« less

Security Vulnerability Profiles of Mission Critical Software: Empirical Analysis of Security Related Bug Reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goseva-Popstojanova, Katerina; Tyo, Jacob

2017-01-01

While some prior research work exists on characteristics of software faults (i.e., bugs) and failures, very little work has been published on analysis of software applications vulnerabilities. This paper aims to contribute towards filling that gap by presenting an empirical investigation of application vulnerabilities. The results are based on data extracted from issue tracking systems of two NASA missions. These data were organized in three datasets: Ground mission IVV issues, Flight mission IVV issues, and Flight mission Developers issues. In each dataset, we identified security related software bugs and classified them in specific vulnerability classes. Then, we created the security vulnerability profiles, i.e., determined where and when the security vulnerabilities were introduced and what were the dominating vulnerabilities classes. Our main findings include: (1) In IVV issues datasets the majority of vulnerabilities were code related and were introduced in the Implementation phase. (2) For all datasets, around 90 of the vulnerabilities were located in two to four subsystems. (3) Out of 21 primary classes, five dominated: Exception Management, Memory Access, Other, Risky Values, and Unused Entities. Together, they contributed from 80 to 90 of vulnerabilities in each dataset.

Supplement Analysis for the Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement for Continued Operation of Los Alamos National Laboratory -- Recovery and Storage of Strontium-90 Fueled Radioisotope Thermal Electric Generators at Los Alamos National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

N /A

2004-01-22

This Supplement Analysis (SA) has been prepared to determine if the Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement for Continued Operations of Los Alamos National Laboratory (SWEIS) (DOE/EIS-0238) adequately addresses the environmental effects of recovery and storage for disposal of six strontium-90 (Sr-90) fueled radioisotope thermal electric generators (RTGs) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Technical Area (TA)-54, Area G, or if the SWEIS needs to be supplemented. DOE's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) proposed to recover and store six Sr-90 RTGs from the commercial sector as part of its Offsite-Source Recovery Project (OSRP). The OSRP focuses on the proactive recovery andmore » storage of unwanted radioactive sealed sources exceeding the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) limits for Class C low-level waste (also known as Greater than Class C waste, or GTCC). In response to the events of September 11, 2001, NRC conducted a risk-based evaluation of potential vulnerabilities to terrorist threats involving NRC-licensed nuclear facilities and materials. NRC's evaluation concluded that possession of unwanted radioactive sealed sources with no disposal outlet presents a potential vulnerability (NRC 2002). In a November 25, 2003 letter to the manager of the NNSA's Los Alamos Site Office, the NRC Office of Nuclear Security and Incident Response identified recovery of several Sr-90 RTGs as the highest priority and requested that DOE take whatever actions necessary to recovery these sources as soon as possible. This SA specifically compares key impact assessment parameters of this proposal to the offsite source recovery program evaluated in the SWEIS and a subsequent SA that evaluated a change to the approach of a portion of the recovery program. It also provides an explanation of any differences between the Proposed Action and activities described in the previous SWEIS and SA analyses.« less

Social vulnerability indicators as a sustainable planning tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Yung-Jaan, E-mail: yungjaanlee@gmail.com

In the face of global warming and environmental change, the conventional strategy of resource centralization will not be able to cope with a future of increasingly extreme climate events and related disasters. It may even contribute to inter-regional disparities as a result of these events. To promote sustainable development, this study offers a case study of developmental planning in Chiayi, Taiwan and a review of the relevant literature to propose a framework of social vulnerability indicators at the township level. The proposed framework can not only be used to measure the social vulnerability of individual townships in Chiayi, but alsomore » be used to capture the spatial developmental of Chiayi. Seventeen social vulnerability indicators provide information in five dimensions. Owing to limited access to relevant data, the values of only 13 indicators were calculated. By simply summarizing indicators without using weightings and by using zero-mean normalization to standardize the indicators, this study calculates social vulnerability scores for each township. To make social vulnerability indicators more useful, this study performs an overlay analysis of social vulnerability and patterns of risk associated with national disasters. The social vulnerability analysis draws on secondary data for 2012 from Taiwan's National Geographic Information System. The second layer of analysis consists of the flood potential ratings of the Taiwan Water Resources Agency as an index of biophysical vulnerability. The third layer consists of township-level administrative boundaries. Analytical results reveal that four out of the 18 townships in Chiayi not only are vulnerable to large-scale flooding during serious flood events, but also have the highest degree of social vulnerability. Administrative boundaries, on which social vulnerability is based, do not correspond precisely to “cross-administrative boundaries,” which are characteristics of the natural environment. This study adopts an exploratory approach that provides Chiayi and other government agencies with a foundation for sustainable strategic planning for environmental change. The final section offers four suggestions concerning the implications of social vulnerability for local development planning. -- Highlights: • This study proposes a framework of social vulnerability indicators at the township level in Chiayi County, Taiwan. • Seventeen social vulnerability indicators are categorized into four dimensions. • This study performs a three-layer overlay analysis of social vulnerability and natural disaster risk patterns. • 4 out of the 18 townships not only have potential for large-scale flooding, but also high degree of social vulnerability. • This study provides a foundation for sustainable strategic planning to deal with environmental change. • Four suggestions are proposed regarding the implications of social vulnerability for local development planning.« less

Estimation of empirical site amplification factors in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Chi-Hsuan; Wen, Kuo-Liang; Kuo, Chun-Hsiang

2017-04-01

Lots of infrastructures are under construction in metropolises in Taiwan in recent years and thus leads to increasement of population density and urbanization in those area. Taiwan island is located in plate boundaries in which the high seismicity is caused by active tectonic plates. The Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw 7.6) in 1999 caused a fatality of more than 2000, and the Meinong earthquake (Mw 6.5) in 2016 caused a fatality of 117 in Tainan city as well as damages on hundreds of buildings. The cases imply seismic vulnerability of urban area. During the improvements for seismic hazard analysis and seismic design, consideration of seismic site amplifications in different site conditions is one of important issues. This study used selected and processed strong motion records observed by the TSMIP network. The site conditions considered as Vs30 used in this study were investigated at most stations (Kuo et al. 2012; Kuo et al. 2016). Since strong motion records and site conditions are both available, we are able to use the data to analyze site amplifications of seismic waves at different periods. The result may be a reference for future modification of seismic design codes to decrease potential seismic hazards and losses. We adopted the strong motion and site database of the SSHAC (Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee) Level 3 project in Taiwan. The selected significant crustal and subduction events of magnitude larger than six for analysis. The amplification factors of PGA, PGV, PGD, and spectra acceleration at 0.3, 1.0, and 3.0 seconds were evaluated using the processed strong motions. According to the recommendation of SSHAC Level 3 project, the site condition of Vs30 = 760 m/s is considered as the reference rock site in this study. The stations with Vs30 between 600 m/s and 900 m/s and used as the reference rock sites in reality. For each event, we find a reference rock site and other site within a certain distance (region dependent) to calculate site amplifications of ground motions. Relationships of site amplification factors and Vs30 are therefore derived for strong motions by regression analysis. Soil nonlinearity (decrease of amplifications) has to be considered at soft soil sites during a strong shaking. We also discuss amplification factors in terms of different intensities if data is available.

A Multi-criteria Decision Analysis System for Prioritizing Sites and Types of Low Impact Development Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jae Yeol; Chung, Eun-Sung

2017-04-01

This study developed a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to prioritize sites and types of low impact development (LID) practices. This framework was systemized as a web-based system coupled with the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Using the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), which is a type of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method, multiple types and sites of designated LID practices are prioritized. This system is named the Water Management Prioritization Module (WMPM) and is an improved version of the Water Management Analysis Module (WMAM) that automatically generates and simulates multiple scenarios of LID design and planning parameters for a single LID type. WMPM can simultaneously determine the priority of multiple LID types and sites. In this study, an infiltration trench and permeable pavement were considered for multiple sub-catchments in South Korea to demonstrate the WMPM procedures. The TOPSIS method was manually incorporated to select the vulnerable target sub-catchments and to prioritize the LID planning scenarios for multiple types and sites considering socio-economic, hydrologic and physical-geometric factors. In this application, the Delphi method and entropy theory were used to determine the subjective and objective weights, respectively. Comparing the ranks derived by this system, two sub-catchments, S16 and S4, out of 18 were considered to be the most suitable places for installing an infiltration trench and porous pavement to reduce the peak and total flow, respectively, considering both socio-economic factors and hydrological effectiveness. WMPM can help policy-makers to objectively develop urban water plans for sustainable development. Keywords: Low Impact Development, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, SWMM, TOPSIS, Water Management Prioritization Module (WMPM)

Tsunami evacuation analysis, modelling and planning: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Aniel-Quiroga, Iñigo; Abad Herrero, Sheila; González Rodriguez, Mauricio; Larreynaga, Jeniffer; Gavidia, Francisco; Quetzalcoalt Gutiérrez, Omar; Álvarez-Gómez, Jose Antonio; Medina Santamaría, Raúl

2014-05-01

Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. Conducting adequate tsunami risk assessments is essential, as the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results allow the identification of adequate, site-specific and vulnerability-oriented risk management options, with the formulation of a tsunami evacuation plan being one of the main expected results. An evacuation plan requires the analysis of the territory and an evaluation of the relevant elements (hazard, population, evacuation routes, and shelters), the modelling of the evacuation, and the proposal of alternatives for those communities located in areas with limited opportunities for evacuation. Evacuation plans, which are developed by the responsible authorities and decision makers, would benefit from a clear and straightforward connection between the scientific and technical information from tsunami risk assessments and the subsequent risk reduction options. Scientifically-based evacuation plans would translate into benefits for the society in terms of mortality reduction. This work presents a comprehensive framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process, such as the potential location for vertical evacuation shelters and alternative routes. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge the gap between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study through the project "Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment in El Salvador", funded by AECID during the period 2009-12, demonstrating its applicability to site-specific response times and population characteristics.

A Privacy Preservation Model for Health-Related Social Networking Sites.

PubMed

Li, Jingquan

2015-07-08

The increasing use of social networking sites (SNS) in health care has resulted in a growing number of individuals posting personal health information online. These sites may disclose users' health information to many different individuals and organizations and mine it for a variety of commercial and research purposes, yet the revelation of personal health information to unauthorized individuals or entities brings a concomitant concern of greater risk for loss of privacy among users. Many users join multiple social networks for different purposes and enter personal and other specific information covering social, professional, and health domains into other websites. Integration of multiple online and real social networks makes the users vulnerable to unintentional and intentional security threats and misuse. This paper analyzes the privacy and security characteristics of leading health-related SNS. It presents a threat model and identifies the most important threats to users and SNS providers. Building on threat analysis and modeling, this paper presents a privacy preservation model that incorporates individual self-protection and privacy-by-design approaches and uses the model to develop principles and countermeasures to protect user privacy. This study paves the way for analysis and design of privacy-preserving mechanisms on health-related SNS.

A Privacy Preservation Model for Health-Related Social Networking Sites

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The increasing use of social networking sites (SNS) in health care has resulted in a growing number of individuals posting personal health information online. These sites may disclose users' health information to many different individuals and organizations and mine it for a variety of commercial and research purposes, yet the revelation of personal health information to unauthorized individuals or entities brings a concomitant concern of greater risk for loss of privacy among users. Many users join multiple social networks for different purposes and enter personal and other specific information covering social, professional, and health domains into other websites. Integration of multiple online and real social networks makes the users vulnerable to unintentional and intentional security threats and misuse. This paper analyzes the privacy and security characteristics of leading health-related SNS. It presents a threat model and identifies the most important threats to users and SNS providers. Building on threat analysis and modeling, this paper presents a privacy preservation model that incorporates individual self-protection and privacy-by-design approaches and uses the model to develop principles and countermeasures to protect user privacy. This study paves the way for analysis and design of privacy-preserving mechanisms on health-related SNS. PMID:26155953

Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

2015-12-01

The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and resultant loss of income produces widespread default on payments. With increased computational power and more complete inventories of exposure, Monte Carlo methods may provide more accurate estimation of severe losses and the opportunity to increase resilience of vulnerable systems and communities.

Coastal Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise and Erosion in Northwest Alaska (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorokhovich, Y.; Leiserowitz, A.

2009-12-01

Northwest Alaska is experiencing significant climate change and human impacts. The study area includes the coastal zone of Kotzebue Sound and the Chukchi Sea and provides the local population (predominantly Inupiaq Eskimo) with critical subsistence resources of meat, fish, berries, herbs, and wood. The geomorphology of the coast includes barrier islands, inlets, estuaries, deltas, cliffs, bluffs, and beaches that host modern settlements and infrastructure. Coastal dynamics and sea-level rise are contributing to erosion, intermittent erosion/accretion patterns, landslides, slumps and coastal retreat. These factors are causing the sedimentation of deltas and lagoons, and changing local bathymetry, morphological parameters of beaches and underwater slopes, rates of coastal dynamics, and turbidity and nutrient cycling in coastal waters. This study is constructing vulnerability maps to help local people and federal officials understand the potential consequences of sea-level rise and coastal erosion on local infrastructure, subsistence resources, and culturally important sites. A lack of complete and uniform data (in terms of methods of collection, geographic scale and spatial resolution) creates an additional level of uncertainty that complicates geographic analysis. These difficulties were overcome by spatial modeling with selected spatial resolution using extrapolation methods. Data include subsistence resource maps obtained using Participatory GIS with local hunters and elders, geological and geographic data on coastal dynamics from satellite imagery, aerial photos, bathymetry and topographic maps, and digital elevation models. These data were classified and ranked according to the level of coastal vulnerability (Figure 1). The resulting qualitative multicriteria model helps to identify the coastal areas with the greatest vulnerability to coastal erosion and of the potential loss of subsistence resources. Acknowldgements: Dr. Ron Abileah (private consultant, jOmegak) helped in preliminary analysis of Landsat imagery, Mr. Alex Whiting provided valuable information on subsistence resources in Kotzebue region, hunters and elders of villages in Kivalina, Kotzebue, Selawik and Deering provided input in GIS database on subsistence resources.

Historical and projected climate (1901–2050) and hydrologic response of karst aquifers, and species vulnerability in south-central Texas and western South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stamm, John F.; Poteet, Mary F.; Symstad, Amy J.; Musgrove, MaryLynn; Long, Andrew J.; Mahler, Barbara J.; Norton, Parker A.

2015-12-18

Flora and fauna that rely on springflow from Edwards and Madison aquifer sites were assessed for vulnerability to projected climate change on the basis of the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI). The CCVI is determined by the exposure of a species to climate, the sensitivity of the species, and the ability of the species to cope with climate change. Sixteen species associated with springs and groundwater were assessed in the Balcones Escarpment region. The Barton Springs salamander (Eurycea sosorum) was scored as highly vulnerable with moderate confidence. Nine species—three salamanders, a fountain darter (Etheostoma fonticola), three insects, and two amphipods—were scored as moderately vulnerable. The remaining six species—four vascular plants, the Barton cavesnail (Stygopyrgus bartonensis), and a cave shrimp—were scored as not vulnerable/presumed stable (not vulnerable and evidence does not support change in abundance or range of the species). Vulnerability of eight species associated with streams that receive springflow from the Madison aquifer in the Black Hills was assessed. Of these, the American dipper (Cinclus mexicanus) and the lesser yellow lady’s slipper (Cypripedium parviflorum) were scored as moderately vulernable with high confidence. The dwarf scouringrush (Equisetum scirpoides) and autumn willow (Salix serissima) were also scored as moderately vulnerable with moderate to low confidence, respectively. Other species were assessed as not vulnerable/presumed stable or not vulnerable/increase likely (not vulnerable and evidence supporting an increase in abundance or range of the species). Lower vulnerability scores for the Black Hills species in comparison to the Balcones Escarpment species reflect lower endemicity, higher projected springflow than in the historical period, and high thermal tolerance of many of the species for the Black Hills. Importantly, climate change vulnerability scores differed substantially for Edwards aquifer species when RRAWFLOW model projections were included, resulting in increased vulnerability scores for 12 of the 16 species.

Tsunami Hazard in La Réunion Island (SW Indian Ocean): Scenario-Based Numerical Modelling on Vulnerable Coastal Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allgeyer, S.; Quentel, É.; Hébert, H.; Gailler, A.; Loevenbruck, A.

2017-08-01

Several major tsunamis have affected the southwest Indian Ocean area since the 2004 Sumatra event, and some of them (2005, 2006, 2007 and 2010) have hit La Réunion Island in the southwest Indian Ocean. However, tsunami hazard is not well defined for La Réunion Island where vulnerable coastlines can be exposed. This study offers a first tsunami hazard assesment for La Réunion Island. We first review the historical tsunami observations made on the coastlines, where high tsunami waves (2-3 m) have been reported on the western coast, especially during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Numerical models of historical scenarios yield results consistent with available observations on the coastal sites (the harbours of La Pointe des Galets and Saint-Paul). The 1833 Pagai earthquake and tsunami can be considered as the worst-case historical scenario for this area. In a second step, we assess the tsunami exposure by covering the major subduction zones with syntethic events of constant magnitude (8.7, 9.0 and 9.3). The aggregation of magnitude 8.7 scenarios all generate strong currents in the harbours (3-7 m s^{-1}) and about 2 m of tsunami maximum height without significant inundation. The analysis of the magnitude 9.0 events confirms that the main commercial harbour (Port Est) is more vulnerable than Port Ouest and that flooding in Saint-Paul is limited to the beach area and the river mouth. Finally, the magnitude 9.3 scenarios show limited inundations close to the beach and in the riverbed in Saint-Paul. More generally, the results confirm that for La Runion, the Sumatra subduction zone is the most threatening non-local source area for tsunami generation. This study also shows that far-field coastal sites should be prepared for tsunami hazard and that further work is needed to improve operational warning procedures. Forecast methods should be developed to provide tools to enable the authorities to anticipate the local effects of tsunamis and to evacuate the harbours in sufficient time when such an earthquake occurs.

[Environmental, social, and roadway vulnerability in accidents involving transportation of hazardous products: a case study of the BR-101 highway between Osório and Torres in Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil].

PubMed

Tinoco, Maria Auxiliadora Cannarozzo; Nodari, Christine Tessele; Pereira, Kimberllyn Rosa da Silva

2016-09-19

This study aimed to assess the environmental and social vulnerability and identify critical highway stretches for accidents involving transportation of hazardous products on the BR-101 highway between the cities of Osório and Torres in Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. The study's approach consisted of a multiple-criteria analysis combining highway safety analysis and environmental and social vulnerability analysis in the occurrence of accidents with hazardous products, plus cartographic analysis techniques. Thirty-eight kilometers of the highway showed high vulnerability, of which 8 kilometers with critical vulnerability, associated with bridges over rivers, water uptake points, a tunnel, environmental preservation areas, and an urban area. These stretches should be prioritized when developing action plans for accident mitigation and development of public policies for this highway. This proved to be an unprecedented approach when compared to existing studies and a potentially useful tool for decision-making in emergency operations.

Natural and Human-Induced Variability in Barrier-Island Response to Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miselis, Jennifer L.; Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge

2017-12-01

Storm-driven sediment fluxes onto and behind barrier islands help coastal barrier systems keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). Understanding what controls cross-shore sediment flux magnitudes is critical for making accurate forecasts of barrier response to increased SLR rates. Here, using an existing morphodynamic model for barrier island evolution, observations are used to constrain model parameters and explore potential variability in future barrier behavior. Using modeled drowning outcomes as a proxy for vulnerability to SLR, 0%, 28%, and 100% of the barrier is vulnerable to SLR rates of 4, 7, and 10 mm/yr, respectively. When only overwash fluxes are increased in the model, drowning vulnerability increases for the same rates of SLR, suggesting that future increases in storminess may increase island vulnerability particularly where sediment resources are limited. Developed sites are more vulnerable to SLR, indicating that anthropogenic changes to overwash fluxes and estuary depths could profoundly affect future barrier response to SLR.

Natural and human-induced variability in barrier-island response to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miselis, Jennifer L.; Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge

2017-01-01

Storm-driven sediment fluxes onto and behind barrier islands help coastal barrier systems keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). Understanding what controls cross-shore sediment flux magnitudes is critical for making accurate forecasts of barrier response to increased SLR rates. Here, using an existing morphodynamic model for barrier island evolution, observations are used to constrain model parameters and explore potential variability in future barrier behavior. Using modeled drowning outcomes as a proxy for vulnerability to SLR, 0%, 28%, and 100% of the barrier is vulnerable to SLR rates of 4, 7, and 10 mm/yr, respectively. When only overwash fluxes are increased in the model, drowning vulnerability increases for the same rates of SLR, suggesting that future increases in storminess may increase island vulnerability particularly where sediment resources are limited. Developed sites are more vulnerable to SLR, indicating that anthropogenic changes to overwash fluxes and estuary depths could profoundly affect future barrier response to SLR.

Security Vulnerability and Patch Management in Electric Utilities: A Data-Driven Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Qinghua; Zhang, Fengli

This paper explores a real security vulnerability and patch management dataset from an electric utility in order to shed light on characteristics of the vulnerabilities that electric utility assets have and how they are remediated in practice. Specifically, it first analyzes the distribution of vulnerabilities over software, assets, and other metric. Then it analyzes how vulnerability features affect remediate actions.

Understanding and Addressing Vulnerability Following the 2010 Haiti Earthquake: Applying a Feminist Lens to Examine Perspectives of Haitian and Expatriate Health Care Providers and Decision-Makers.

PubMed

Durocher, Evelyne; Chung, Ryoa; Rochon, Christiane; Hunt, Matthew

2016-07-01

Vulnerability is a central concept in humanitarian aid. Discussions of vulnerability in disaster response literature and guidelines for humanitarian aid range from considerations of a universal human vulnerability, to more nuanced examinations of how particular characteristics render individuals more or less at risk. Despite its frequent use, there is a lack of clarity about how vulnerability is conceptualized and how it informs operational priorities in humanitarian assistance. Guided by interpretive description methodology, we draw on the feminist taxonomy of vulnerability presented by Mackenzie, Rogers and Dodds (2014) to examine perspectives of 24 expatriate and Haitian decision-makers and health professionals interviewed between May 2012 and March 2013. The analysis explores concepts of vulnerability and equity in relation to the humanitarian response following the 2010 earthquake in Haiti. Participants' conceptualizations of vulnerability included consideration for inherent vulnerabilities related to individual characteristics (e.g. being a woman or disabled) and situational vulnerabilities related to particular circumstances such as having less access to health care resources or basic necessities. Participants recognized that vulnerabilities could be exacerbated by socio-political structures but felt ill-equipped to address these. The use of the taxonomy and a set of questions inspired by Hurst's (2008) approach to identifying and reducing vulnerability can guide the analysis of varied sources of vulnerability and open discussions about how and by whom vulnerabilities should be addressed in humanitarian responses. More research is required to inform how humanitarian responders could balance addressing acute vulnerability with consideration of systemic and pre-existing circumstances that underlie much of the vulnerability experienced following an acute disaster.

Understanding and Addressing Vulnerability Following the 2010 Haiti Earthquake: Applying a Feminist Lens to Examine Perspectives of Haitian and Expatriate Health Care Providers and Decision-Makers

PubMed Central

Chung, Ryoa; Rochon, Christiane; Hunt, Matthew

2016-01-01

Vulnerability is a central concept in humanitarian aid. Discussions of vulnerability in disaster response literature and guidelines for humanitarian aid range from considerations of a universal human vulnerability, to more nuanced examinations of how particular characteristics render individuals more or less at risk. Despite its frequent use, there is a lack of clarity about how vulnerability is conceptualized and how it informs operational priorities in humanitarian assistance. Guided by interpretive description methodology, we draw on the feminist taxonomy of vulnerability presented by Mackenzie, Rogers and Dodds (2014) to examine perspectives of 24 expatriate and Haitian decision-makers and health professionals interviewed between May 2012 and March 2013. The analysis explores concepts of vulnerability and equity in relation to the humanitarian response following the 2010 earthquake in Haiti. Participants’ conceptualizations of vulnerability included consideration for inherent vulnerabilities related to individual characteristics (e.g. being a woman or disabled) and situational vulnerabilities related to particular circumstances such as having less access to health care resources or basic necessities. Participants recognized that vulnerabilities could be exacerbated by socio-political structures but felt ill-equipped to address these. The use of the taxonomy and a set of questions inspired by Hurst’s (2008) approach to identifying and reducing vulnerability can guide the analysis of varied sources of vulnerability and open discussions about how and by whom vulnerabilities should be addressed in humanitarian responses. More research is required to inform how humanitarian responders could balance addressing acute vulnerability with consideration of systemic and pre-existing circumstances that underlie much of the vulnerability experienced following an acute disaster. PMID:27617037

Nutritional Assessment of Free Meal Programs in San Francisco

PubMed Central

Drago-Ferguson, Soledad; Lopez, Andrea; Seligman, Hilary K.

2013-01-01

Free meals often serve as a primary food source for adults living in poverty, particularly the homeless. We conducted a nutritional analysis of 22 meals from 6 free meal sites in San Francisco to determine macronutrient and micronutrient content. Meals provided too little fiber and too much fat but appropriate levels of cholesterol. They were also below target for potassium, calcium, and vitamins A and E. These findings may inform development of nutritional content standards for free meals, particularly for vulnerable patients who might have, or be at risk of developing, a chronic illness. PMID:23721791

Monitoring anonymous HIV testing in Estonia from 2005 to 2015.

PubMed

Rüütel, K; Kallavus, K; Tomera, I

2018-02-01

In Estonia, a network of anonymous and free of charge HIV testing sites has been operating since 1988. Services are provided by health care organizations and financed by the National Institute for Health Development from the state budget. The objective of this analysis was to assess anonymous HIV testing in Estonia from 2005 to 2015. We used data collected from the National Institute for Health Development's annual reports, Health Board and Estonian Health Insurance Fund. In Estonia, more than 200 000 HIV-tests are performed annually, and of these approximately 5-6% are within anonymous HIV testing sites. The percentage tested with rapid tests in anonymous testing sites has increased from 15% in 2010 to 53% in 2015. Furthermore, up to 65% of all newly diagnosed HIV-cases have been detected in these sites. The proportion of HIV-positive tests has decreased from 3.8% to 0.5% in anonymous testing sites and from 0.3% to 0.1% in general health care. Simultaneously, the cost of detecting one new HIV case has increased almost six times. This analysis reveals that anonymous HIV testing services are well accepted by the general population as well as vulnerable populations. The positivity rate among those tested in anonymous testing sites remains higher than among all people tested, showing that the sites reach more of those who are at higher risk of HIV. In the light of decreasing positivity rate, more attention should be paid to people with higher HIV risk and increasing access to testing in community based settings. © 2018 British HIV Association.

Community exposure and vulnerability to water quality and availability: a case study in the mining-affected Pazña Municipality, Lake Poopó Basin, Bolivian Altiplano.

PubMed

French, Megan; Alem, Natalie; Edwards, Stephen J; Blanco Coariti, Efraín; Cauthin, Helga; Hudson-Edwards, Karen A; Luyckx, Karen; Quintanilla, Jorge; Sánchez Miranda, Oscar

2017-10-01

Assessing water sources for drinking and irrigation along with community vulnerability, especially in developing and rural regions, is important for reducing risk posed by poor water quality and limited water availability and accessibility. We present a case study of rural mining-agricultural communities in the Lake Poopó Basin, one of the poorest regions on the Bolivian Altiplano. Here, relatively low rainfall, high evaporation, salinization and unregulated mining activity have contributed to environmental degradation and water issues, which is a situation facing many Altiplano communities. Social data from 72 households and chemical water quality data from 27 surface water and groundwater sites obtained between August 2013 and July 2014 were used to develop locally relevant vulnerability assessment methodologies and ratings with respect to water availability and quality, and Chemical Water Quality Hazard Ratings to assess water quality status. Levels of natural and mining-related contamination in many waters (CWQHR ≥ 6; 78% of assessed sites) mean that effective remediation would be challenging and require substantial investment. Although waters of fair to good chemical quality (CWQHR ≤ 5; 22% of assessed sites) do exist, treatment may still be required depending on use, and access issues remain problematic. There is a need to comply with water quality legislation, improve and maintain basic water supply and storage infrastructure, build and operate water and wastewater treatment plants, and adequately and safely contain and treat mine waste. This study serves as a framework that could be used elsewhere for assessing and mitigating water contamination and availability affecting vulnerable populations.

Community exposure and vulnerability to water quality and availability: a case study in the mining-affected Pazña Municipality, Lake Poopó Basin, Bolivian Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, Megan; Alem, Natalie; Edwards, Stephen J.; Blanco Coariti, Efraín; Cauthin, Helga; Hudson-Edwards, Karen A.; Luyckx, Karen; Quintanilla, Jorge; Sánchez Miranda, Oscar

2017-10-01

Assessing water sources for drinking and irrigation along with community vulnerability, especially in developing and rural regions, is important for reducing risk posed by poor water quality and limited water availability and accessibility. We present a case study of rural mining-agricultural communities in the Lake Poopó Basin, one of the poorest regions on the Bolivian Altiplano. Here, relatively low rainfall, high evaporation, salinization and unregulated mining activity have contributed to environmental degradation and water issues, which is a situation facing many Altiplano communities. Social data from 72 households and chemical water quality data from 27 surface water and groundwater sites obtained between August 2013 and July 2014 were used to develop locally relevant vulnerability assessment methodologies and ratings with respect to water availability and quality, and Chemical Water Quality Hazard Ratings to assess water quality status. Levels of natural and mining-related contamination in many waters (CWQHR ≥ 6; 78% of assessed sites) mean that effective remediation would be challenging and require substantial investment. Although waters of fair to good chemical quality (CWQHR ≤ 5; 22% of assessed sites) do exist, treatment may still be required depending on use, and access issues remain problematic. There is a need to comply with water quality legislation, improve and maintain basic water supply and storage infrastructure, build and operate water and wastewater treatment plants, and adequately and safely contain and treat mine waste. This study serves as a framework that could be used elsewhere for assessing and mitigating water contamination and availability affecting vulnerable populations.

Medical home capabilities of primary care practices that serve sociodemographically vulnerable neighborhoods.

PubMed

Friedberg, Mark W; Coltin, Kathryn L; Safran, Dana Gelb; Dresser, Marguerite; Schneider, Eric C

2010-06-14

Under current medical home proposals, primary care practices using specific structural capabilities will receive enhanced payments. Some practices disproportionately serve sociodemographically vulnerable neighborhoods. If these practices lack medical home capabilities, their ineligibility for enhanced payments could worsen disparities in care. Via survey, 308 Massachusetts primary care practices reported their use of 13 structural capabilities commonly included in medical home proposals. Using geocoded US Census data, we constructed racial/ethnic minority and economic disadvantage indices to describe the neighborhood served by each practice. We compared the structural capabilities of "disproportionate-share" practices (those in the most sociodemographically vulnerable quintile on each index) and others. Racial/ethnic disproportionate-share practices were more likely than others to have staff assisting patient self-management (69% vs 55%; P = .003), on-site language interpreters (54% vs 26%; P < .001), multilingual clinicians (80% vs 51%; P < .001), and multifunctional electronic health records (48% vs 29%; P = .01). Similarly, economic disproportionate-share practices were more likely than others to have physician awareness of patient experience ratings (73% vs 65%; P = .03), on-site language interpreters (56% vs 25%; P < .001), multilingual clinicians (78% vs 51%; P < .001), and multifunctional electronic health records (40% vs 31%; P = .03). Disproportionate-share practices were larger than others. After adjustment for practice size, only language capabilities continued to have statistically significant relationships with disproportionate-share status. Contrary to expectations, primary care practices serving sociodemographically vulnerable neighborhoods were more likely than other practices to have structural capabilities commonly included in medical home proposals. Payments tied to these capabilities may aid practices serving vulnerable populations.

Diversity of hydraulic traits in nine Cordia species growing in tropical forests with contrasting precipitation.

PubMed

Choat, Brendan; Sack, Lawren; Holbrook, N Michele

2007-01-01

Inter- and intraspecific variation in hydraulic traits was investigated in nine Cordia (Boraginaceae) species growing in three tropical rainforests differing in mean annual precipitation (MAP). Interspecific variation was examined for the different Cordia species found at each site, and intraspecific variation was studied in populations of the widespread species Cordia alliodora across the three sites. Strong intra- and interspecific variation were observed in vulnerability to drought-induced embolism. Species growing at drier sites were more resistant to embolism than those growing at moister sites; the same pattern was observed for populations of C. alliodora. By contrast, traits related to hydraulic capacity, including stem xylem vessel diameter, sapwood specific conductivity (K(s)) and leaf specific conductivity (K(L)), varied strongly but independently of MAP. For C. alliodora, xylem anatomy, K(s), K(L) and Huber value varied little across sites, with K(s) and K(L) being consistently high relative to other Cordia species. A constitutively high hydraulic capacity coupled with plastic or genotypic adjustment in vulnerability to embolism and leaf water relations would contribute to the ability of C. alliodora to establish and compete across a wide precipitation gradient.

Risk Factors for Social Networking Site Scam Victimization Among Malaysian Students.

PubMed

Kirwan, Gráinne H; Fullwood, Chris; Rooney, Brendan

2018-02-01

Social networking sites (SNSs) can provide cybercriminals with various opportunities, including gathering of user data and login credentials to enable fraud, and directing of users toward online locations that may install malware onto their devices. The techniques employed by such cybercriminals can include clickbait (text or video), advertisement of nonexistent but potentially desirable products, and hoax competitions/giveaways. This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with falling victim to these malicious techniques. An online survey was completed by 295 Malaysian undergraduate students, finding that more than one-third had fallen victim to SNS scams. Logistic regression analysis identified several victimization risk factors including having higher scores in impulsivity (specifically cognitive complexity), using fewer devices for SNSs, and having been on an SNS for a longer duration. No reliable model was found for vulnerability to hoax valuable gift giveaways and "friend view application" advertising specifically, but vulnerability to video clickbait was predicted by lower extraversion scores, higher levels of openness to experience, using fewer devices, and being on an SNS for a longer duration. Other personality traits were not associated with either overall victimization susceptibility or increased risk of falling victim to the specific techniques. However, age approached significance within both the video clickbait and overall victimization models. These findings suggest that routine activity theory may be particularly beneficial in understanding and preventing SNSs scam victimization.

On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.

2007-01-01

In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Caught in the Web: How Online Advertising Exploits Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pasnik, Shelley

1997-01-01

Principals should be aware of Internet advertising targeted at children. According to a recent Center for Media Education study, many companies design online sites for children as a way to bypass adult authority and prey on children's vulnerabilities. Some companies use their online sites to develop brand loyalties or collect market-segment data…

The promise, practice and state of planning tools to assess site vulnerability to runoff phosphorus loss

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Over the past 20 years, there has been a proliferation of phosphorus (P) site assessment tools for nutrient management planning, particularly in the United State. These decision support tools, range from the P Index to fate-and-transport models to weather-forecast based risk calculators. All require...

Cloud-Based Data Storage

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waters, John K.

2011-01-01

The vulnerability and inefficiency of backing up data on-site is prompting school districts to switch to more secure, less troublesome cloud-based options. District auditors are pushing for a better way to back up their data than the on-site, tape-based system that had been used for years. About three years ago, Hendrick School District in…

Accessibility and utilization patterns of a mobile medical clinic among vulnerable populations.

PubMed

Gibson, Britton A; Ghosh, Debarchana; Morano, Jamie P; Altice, Frederick L

2014-07-01

We mapped mobile medical clinic (MMC) clients for spatial distribution of their self-reported locations and travel behaviors to better understand health-seeking and utilization patterns of medically vulnerable populations in Connecticut. Contrary to distance decay literature, we found that a small but significant proportion of clients was traveling substantial distances to receive repeat care at the MMC. Of 8404 total clients, 90.2% lived within 5 miles of a MMC site, yet mean utilization was highest (5.3 visits per client) among those living 11-20 miles of MMCs, primarily for those with substance use disorders. Of clients making >20 visits, 15.0% traveled >10 miles, suggesting that a significant minority of clients traveled to MMC sites because of their need-specific healthcare services, which are not only free but available at an acceptable and accommodating environment. The findings of this study contribute to the important research on healthcare utilization among vulnerable population by focusing on broader dimensions of accessibility in a setting where both mobile and fixed healthcare services coexist. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Engineering Safety- and Security-Related Requirements for Software-Intensive Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-27

Requirements Negative (shall not) Requirements Hardware Requirements equ remen s System / Documentation Requirements eve oper Requirements Operational ...Validation Actual / Proposed Defensibility C li Operational Vulnerability Analysis VulnerabilityVulnerability Safety Vulnerability performs System ...including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson

Understanding Young Women's Sexual Relationship Experiences: The Nature and Role of Vulnerability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maxwell, Claire

2006-01-01

This paper seeks to operationalise the concept of social "vulnerability" and explore its usefulness as a framework for understanding sexual relationships. Data from 30 vulnerable and less vulnerable young women in one UK city were collected through in-depth interviews and focus groups. An analysis of differences and similarities in…

Vulnerability related to oral health in early childhood: a concept analysis.

PubMed

Mattheus, Deborah J

2010-09-01

This article is a report of the analysis of the concept of vulnerability and its relationship to oral health in early childhood. Poor oral health is a continued problem for children worldwide. Vulnerability increases the probability of poor oral health outcomes. The lack of clarity of the concept of vulnerability creates difficulty in understanding this multi-factoral condition. Data source included 34 articles covering the period 2000-2009 from a variety of disciplines, including nursing, dentistry, medicine and public health. The concept analysis was conducted using Rodgers' evolutionary method. The literature was analysed and a social ecology model was used to frame the discussion, recognizing family and community influences on children's oral health. The context of oral health in early childhood contributes to the changes in the concept vulnerability. The attributes are closely related to family and community factors and identified as limited parental income, parental education, community-based services and fluoride; and exposure to poor parental habits, parental neglect and harmful toxins. The primary antecedent is identified as a form of limited protection from exposure to various circumstances. Children with limited protection have increased vulnerability and greater probability of poor health outcomes. Nurses who understand the concept of vulnerability related to oral health and can identify factors that create protection and are capable of decreasing vulnerability through parent education, community awareness and policy changes that support children and families.

Vulnerability of sandy coasts to climate change and anthropic pressures: methodology and preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idier, D.; Poumadère, M.; Vinchon, C.; Romieu, E.; Oliveros, C.

2009-04-01

1-INTRODUCTION Climate change is considered in the latest reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC (2007) as unequivocal. Induced vulnerability of the system is defined as "the combination of sensitivity to climatic variations, probability of adverse effects, and adaptive capacity". Substantial methodological challenges remain, in particular estimating the risk of adverse climate change impacts and interpreting relative vulnerability across diverse situations. As stated by the IPCC, the "coastal systems should be considered vulnerable to changes in climate". In these areas, amongst the most serious impacts of sea-level rise (Nicholls, 1996) are erosion and marine inundation. Thus, the coast of metropolitan France, being composed of 31% sandy coasts, is potentially vulnerable, as it has been qualitatively assessed on the pilot coasts of Aquitaine and Languedoc-Roussillon in the RESPONSE project (Vinchon et al., 2008). Within the ANR VULSACO project (VULnerability of SAndy COast to climate change and anthropic pressure), the present day erosion tendencies as well as the potentially future erosion trends are investigated. The main objectives are to: (1) assess indicators of vulnerability to climate change for low-lying linear sandy coastal systems, from the shore to the hinterland, facing undergoing climate change and anthropic pressure until the 2030s; and (2) identify the aggravating or improving effect of human pressure on this vulnerability. This second issue is sometimes considered as a main driver of coastal risks. The methodology proposed in the project considers anthropic adaptation (or not) by putting decision makers in front of potential modifications of the physical system, to study the decision process and the choice of adaptation (or not). The coastal system is defined by its morphology, its physical characteristics and its land use. The time scales will range from short-term (days to weeks, e.g. time scale of extreme events) to medium-term (decades), whereas the space scales range from several tens of meters to several tens of kilometers. The project is based on the study of representative coastal units: 4 sites characterised by low-lying linear sandy beaches but different, representative, hydrodynamic and socio-economic environments. These sites are located in: Mediterranean Sea (Lido of Sète), Atlantic coast (Truc Vert beach and Noirmoutier island) and English channel coast (Est of Dunkerque). Each of these sites is studied following the same methodology, on both the physical and socio-economic dimensions, the aim being to identify vulnerability indicators regarding climate change and anthropic pressure. 2 - METHODOLOGY The work is based on the following methodology, for every site: 1) The compartments of the unit are defined: shoreface, coastline, backshore, hinterland, from a physical and socio-economical point of view. 2) The available data are analysed in order to provide some information on the present trend of the coastal unit, regarding climate change and anthropic pressure, but also to support the model validation. 3) The vulnerability is studied. On one hand, the socio-economic dimension is assessed and, in a risk governance perspective, stake holders are identified and involved. This part of the project combines the study of social perceptions of dangers along with a deliberative workshop. On the other hand, numerical models of the physical behaviour of shoreface and coastline are applied. The selected models cover a time scale from short-term (storm time scale) to long-term (decades). Then, vulnerability can be studied: the vulnerability of coast/beach is defined and studied based on in-situ observations and model results. Most of these models needs some forcing conditions (waves at the boundary of the computational domains for instance). The present day conditions can be potentially modified by climate change. However, the model and literature review on climate change show that the few prediction of wave conditions available for the future deal mainly with the significant wave height, and not so much with the wave direction or period. To compensate this lack of knowledge, a sensitivity study is done to get information on the possible changes within the next decades (2030). It consists in studying the influence of a modification in the characteristics of the present day forcing conditions(like waves) within a reasonable magnitude order. 4) The anthropic pressure is taken into account as a modulator of the physical vulnerability. In each context, participative techniques are used to involve representatives of the main stakeholder groups into decision-making simulations. The scenario of a storm in 2030 is adopted to provide structured interactions during the workshop. Along with socio-economic projections, this simulation relies upon a fictive journal article written on the basis of the model outputs. These methodological choices aim at better understanding how decisions are made by stake holders dealing with risks and scientific uncertainty. Some applied results on the study sites will be presented at the EGU. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The VULSACO project is financially supported by the ANR (French National Research Agency) within the Vulnérabilité-Milieux-Climat programm.

A user exposure based approach for non-structural road network vulnerability analysis

PubMed Central

Jin, Lei; Wang, Haizhong; Yu, Le; Liu, Lin

2017-01-01

Aiming at the dense urban road network vulnerability without structural negative consequences, this paper proposes a novel non-structural road network vulnerability analysis framework. Three aspects of the framework are mainly described: (i) the rationality of non-structural road network vulnerability, (ii) the metrics for negative consequences accounting for variant road conditions, and (iii) the introduction of a new vulnerability index based on user exposure. Based on the proposed methodology, a case study in the Sioux Falls network which was usually threatened by regular heavy snow during wintertime is detailedly discussed. The vulnerability ranking of links of Sioux Falls network with respect to heavy snow scenario is identified. As a result of non-structural consequences accompanied by conceivable degeneration of network, there are significant increases in generalized travel time costs which are measurements for “emotionally hurt” of topological road network. PMID:29176832

Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability Assessment in Industrial Complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H. J.; Lee, D. K.

2016-12-01

Climate change has recently caused frequent natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves. Such disasters have also increased industrial damages. We must establish climate change adaptation policies to reduce the industrial damages. It is important to make accurate vulnerability assessment to establish climate change adaptation policies. Thus, this study aims at establishing a new index to assess vulnerability level in industrial complexes. Most vulnerability indices have been developed with subjective approaches, such as the Delphi survey and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). The subjective approaches rely on the knowledge of a few experts, which provokes the lack of the reliability of the indices. To alleviate the problem, we have designed a vulnerability index incorporating objective approaches. We have investigated 42 industrial complex sites in Republic of Korea (ROK). To calculate weights of variables, we used entropy method as an objective method integrating the Delphi survey as a subjective method. Finally, we found our method integrating both subjective method and objective method could generate result. The integration of the entropy method enables us to assess the vulnerability objectively. Our method will be useful to establish climate change adaptation policies by reducing the uncertainties of the methods based on the subjective approaches.

Evaluating Social and Ecological Vulnerability of Coral Reef Fisheries to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Cinner, Joshua E.; Huchery, Cindy; Darling, Emily S.; Humphries, Austin T.; Graham, Nicholas A. J.; Hicks, Christina C.; Marshall, Nadine; McClanahan, Tim R.

2013-01-01

There is an increasing need to evaluate the links between the social and ecological dimensions of human vulnerability to climate change. We use an empirical case study of 12 coastal communities and associated coral reefs in Kenya to assess and compare five key ecological and social components of the vulnerability of coastal social-ecological systems to temperature induced coral mortality [specifically: 1) environmental exposure; 2) ecological sensitivity; 3) ecological recovery potential; 4) social sensitivity; and 5) social adaptive capacity]. We examined whether ecological components of vulnerability varied between government operated no-take marine reserves, community-based reserves, and openly fished areas. Overall, fished sites were marginally more vulnerable than community-based and government marine reserves. Social sensitivity was indicated by the occupational composition of each community, including the importance of fishing relative to other occupations, as well as the susceptibility of different fishing gears to the effects of coral bleaching on target fish species. Key components of social adaptive capacity varied considerably between the communities. Together, these results show that different communities have relative strengths and weaknesses in terms of social-ecological vulnerability to climate change. PMID:24040228

Population Vulnerability to Biannual Cholera Outbreaks and Associated Macro-Scale Drivers in the Bengal Delta

PubMed Central

Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Jutla, Antarpreet S.; Gute, David M.; Sack, R. Bradley; Alam, Munirul; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.; Islam, Shafiqul

2013-01-01

The highly populated floodplains of the Bengal Delta have a long history of endemic and epidemic cholera outbreaks, both coastal and inland. Previous studies have not addressed the spatio-temporal dynamics of population vulnerability related to the influence of underlying large-scale processes. We analyzed spatial and temporal variability of cholera incidence across six surveillance sites in the Bengal Delta and their association with regional hydroclimatic and environmental drivers. More specifically, we use salinity and flood inundation modeling across the vulnerable districts of Bangladesh to test earlier proposed hypotheses on the role of these environmental variables. Our results show strong influence of seasonal and interannual variability in estuarine salinity on spring outbreaks and inland flooding on fall outbreaks. A large segment of the population in the Bengal Delta floodplains remain vulnerable to these biannual cholera transmission mechanisms that provide ecologic and environmental conditions for outbreaks over large geographic regions. PMID:24019441

Economic Analysis of Cyber Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-07-01

vulnerability databases and track the number of incidents reported by U.S. organizations. Many of these are private organizations, such as the security...VULNERABILITY AND ATTACK ESTIMATES Numerous organizations compile vulnerability databases and patch information, and track the number of reported incidents... database / security focus Databases of vulnerabilities identifying the software versions that are susceptible, including information on the method of

A situational analysis of priority disaster hazards in Uganda: findings from a hazard and vulnerability analysis.

PubMed

Mayega, R W; Wafula, M R; Musenero, M; Omale, A; Kiguli, J; Orach, G C; Kabagambe, G; Bazeyo, W

2013-06-01

Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have not conducted a disaster risk analysis. Hazards and vulnerability analyses provide vital information that can be used for development of risk reduction and disaster response plans. The purpose of this study was to rank disaster hazards for Uganda, as a basis for identifying the priority hazards to guide disaster management planning. The study as conducted in Uganda, as part of a multi-country assessment. A hazard, vulnerability and capacity analysis was conducted in a focus group discussion of 7 experts representing key stakeholder agencies in disaster management in Uganda. A simple ranking method was used to rank the probability of occurance of 11 top hazards, their potential impact and the level vulnerability of people and infrastructure. In-terms of likelihood of occurance and potential impact, the top ranked disaster hazards in Uganda are: 1) Epidemics of infectious diseases, 2) Drought/famine, 3) Conflict and environmental degradation in that order. In terms of vulnerability, the top priority hazards to which people and infrastructure were vulnerable were: 1) Conflicts, 2) Epidemics, 3) Drought/famine and, 4) Environmental degradation in that order. Poverty, gender, lack of information, and lack of resilience measures were some of the factors promoting vulnerability to disasters. As Uganda develops a disaster risk reduction and response plan, it ought to prioritize epidemics of infectious diseases, drought/famine, conflics and environmental degradation as the priority disaster hazards.

Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change as Revealed by Relationships between Simulated Crop Yield and Climate Change Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, A. W.; Absar, S. M.; Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.

2012-12-01

The vulnerability of agriculture is among the leading concerns surrounding climate change. Agricultural production is influenced by drought and other extremes in weather and climate. In regions of subsistence farming, worst case reductions in yield lead to malnutrition and famine. Reduced surplus contributes to poverty in agrarian economies. In more economically diverse and industrialized regions, variations in agricultural yield can influence the regional economy through market mechanisms. The latter grows in importance as agriculture increasingly services the energy market in addition to markets for food and fiber. Agriculture is historically a highly adaptive enterprise and will respond to future changes in climate with a variety of adaptive mechanisms. Nonetheless, the risk, if not expectation, of increases in climate extremes and hazards exceeding historical experience motivates scientifically based anticipatory assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. We investigate the sensitivity component of that vulnerability using EPIC, a well established field-scale model of cropping systems that includes the simulation of economic yield. The core of our analysis is the relationship between simulated yield and various indices of climate change, including the CCI/CLIVAR/JCOM ETCCDI indices, calculated from weather inputs to the model. We complement this core with analysis using the DSSAT cropping system model and exploration of relationships between historical yield statistics and climate indices calculated from weather records. Our analyses are for sites in the Southeast/Gulf Coast region of the United States. We do find "tight" monotonic relationships between annual yield and climate for some indices, especially those associated with available water. More commonly, however, we find an increase in the variability of yield as the index value becomes more extreme. Our findings contribute to understanding the sensitivity of crop yield as part of vulnerability analysis. They also contribute to considerations of adaptation, focusing attention on adapting to increased variability in yield rather than just reductions in yield. For example, in the face of increased variability or reduced reliability, hedging and risk spreading strategies may be more important than technological innovations such as drought-resistant crops or other optimization strategies. Our findings also have implications for the choice and application of climate extreme indices, demands on models used to project climate change and the development of next generation integrated assessment models (IAM) that incorporate the agricultural sector, and especially adaption within that sector, in energy and broader more general markets.

Biodiversity elements vulnerable to climate change in the Catskill High Peaks subecoregion (Ulster, Delaware, Sullivan, and Greene Counties, New York State).

PubMed

Adams, Morton S; Parisio, Steven J

2013-09-01

Climate change is expected to affect biodiversity elements in the Catskill High Peaks subecoregion of New York State with effects that are difficult to predict. The present communication details the species and communities of greatest conservation concern in this portion of the state and makes recommendations for monitoring the most pressing climate change-biodiversity vulnerabilities. Specifically, we present sites for monitoring representative old-growth and successional stands of red spruce/balsam fir and northern hardwood matrix forests, cliff communities, ice cave talus communities, and both minerotrophic inland poor fen and ombrotrophic perched peatlands. The proposed monitoring protocols vary among the various sites, but all are quantitative and are designed to document patterns of change. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Status of vulnerable Cystoseira populations along the Italian infralittoral fringe, and relationships with environmental and anthropogenic variables.

PubMed

Mancuso, F P; Strain, E M A; Piccioni, E; De Clerck, O; Sarà, G; Airoldi, L

2018-04-01

We analyzed the occurrence and status of infralittoral fringe populations of Cystoseira spp. (Fucales) at thirteen rocky sites around the Italian coastline, and explored the relationships with relevant environmental and anthropogenic variables. We found Cystoseira populations at 11 sites: most were scattered and comprised monospecific stands of C. compressa, and only 6 sites also supported sparse specimens of either C. amentacea var. stricta or C. brachycarpa. Coastal human population density, Chlorophyll a seawater concentrations, sea surface temperature, annual range of sea surface temperature and wave fetch explained most of the variation of the status of C. compressa. We hypothesize a generally unhealthy state of the Italian Cystoseira infralittoral fringe populations and identify multiple co-occurring anthropogenic stressors as the likely drivers of these poor conditions. Extensive baseline monitoring is needed to describe how Cystoseira populations are changing, and implement a management framework for the conservation of these valuable but vulnerable habitats. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability of polar oceans to anthropogenic acidification: comparison of arctic and antarctic seasonal cycles.

PubMed

Shadwick, E H; Trull, T W; Thomas, H; Gibson, J A E

2013-01-01

Polar oceans are chemically sensitive to anthropogenic acidification due to their relatively low alkalinity and correspondingly weak carbonate buffering capacity. Here, we compare unique CO2 system observations covering complete annual cycles at an Arctic (Amundsen Gulf) and Antarctic site (Prydz Bay). The Arctic site experiences greater seasonal warming (10 vs 3°C), and freshening (3 vs 2), has lower alkalinity (2220 vs 2320 μmol/kg), and lower summer pH (8.15 vs 8.5), than the Antarctic site. Despite a larger uptake of inorganic carbon by summer photosynthesis, the Arctic carbon system exhibits smaller seasonal changes than the more alkaline Antarctic system. In addition, the excess surface nutrients in the Antarctic may allow mitigation of acidification, via CO2 removal by enhanced summer production driven by iron inputs from glacial and sea-ice melting. These differences suggest that the Arctic system is more vulnerable to anthropogenic change due to lower alkalinity, enhanced warming, and nutrient limitation.

Vulnerability of Polar Oceans to Anthropogenic Acidification: Comparison of Arctic and Antarctic Seasonal Cycles

PubMed Central

Shadwick, E. H.; Trull, T. W.; Thomas, H.; Gibson, J. A. E.

2013-01-01

Polar oceans are chemically sensitive to anthropogenic acidification due to their relatively low alkalinity and correspondingly weak carbonate buffering capacity. Here, we compare unique CO2 system observations covering complete annual cycles at an Arctic (Amundsen Gulf) and Antarctic site (Prydz Bay). The Arctic site experiences greater seasonal warming (10 vs 3°C), and freshening (3 vs 2), has lower alkalinity (2220 vs 2320 μmol/kg), and lower summer pH (8.15 vs 8.5), than the Antarctic site. Despite a larger uptake of inorganic carbon by summer photosynthesis, the Arctic carbon system exhibits smaller seasonal changes than the more alkaline Antarctic system. In addition, the excess surface nutrients in the Antarctic may allow mitigation of acidification, via CO2 removal by enhanced summer production driven by iron inputs from glacial and sea-ice melting. These differences suggest that the Arctic system is more vulnerable to anthropogenic change due to lower alkalinity, enhanced warming, and nutrient limitation. PMID:23903871

Dynamic Vulnerability of Karst Systems: a Concept to understand qualitative and quantitative Aspects of Karst springs due to Changes in Groundwater Recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggenberger, P.; Butscher, C.; Epting, J.; Auckenthaler, A.

2015-12-01

Karst groundwater resources represent valuable water resources, which may be affected by different types of pollution and changes of groundwater recharge by climate change. In many parts of Europe, it has been predicted that record-breaking heat waves, such as the one experienced in 2003 and 2015, will become more frequent. At the same time, even as summers become drier, the incidence of severe precipitation events could increase. What is the influence such changes to the quantitative and qualitative aspects of Karst groundwater systems? A factor to be considered in conjunction with groundwater quality is the vulnerability of the resource, which is defined as the sensitivity of a groundwater system to pollution. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to the sensitivity to pollution when considering only natural, geogenic conditions without the effects of human activities such as contaminant release. Intrinsic vulnerability depends on the recharge conditions, which are dependent on the surface and subsurface structure and on precipitation and evaporation patterns. The latter are highly time dependent. Therefore, our groundwater vulnerability concept also includes dynamic aspects of the system, the variations of spatial and temporal components. We present results of combined monitoring and modelling experiments of several types of Karst systems in the Tabular and the Folded Jura of NW Switzerland. The recharge, conduit flow, diffuse flow(RCD) rainfall-discharge model "RCD-seasonal" was used to simulate the discharge and substance concentration of several spring. This lumped parameter model include: the recharge system (soil and epikarst system), the conduit flow system, and the diffuse flow system. The numerically derived Dynamic Vulnerability Index (DVI) can indicate qualitative changes of spring water with sufficient accuracy to be used for drinking water management. In addition, the results obtained from the test sites indicate a decrease in short-lived contaminants in spring water as a result of climate change. The impact of persistent contaminants, however, can only be determined if future climatic conditions at the site can be estimated with sufficient accuracy, because predicted summer heat waves and severe rainfall events will have opposite effects on the groundwater vulnerability.

Vulnerability to cavitation, hydraulic efficiency, growth and survival in an insular pine (Pinus canariensis)

PubMed Central

López, Rosana; López de Heredia, Unai; Collada, Carmen; Cano, Francisco Javier; Emerson, Brent C.; Cochard, Hervé; Gil, Luis

2013-01-01

Background and Aims It is widely accepted that hydraulic failure due to xylem embolism is a key factor contributing to drought-induced mortality in trees. In the present study, an attempt is made to disentangle phenotypic plasticity from genetic variation in hydraulic traits across the entire distribution area of a tree species to detect adaptation to local environments. Methods A series of traits related to hydraulics (vulnerability to cavitation and hydraulic conductivity in branches), growth performance and leaf mass per area were assessed in eight Pinus canariensis populations growing in two common gardens under contrasting environments. In addition, the neutral genetic variability (FST) and the genetic differentiation of phenotypic variation (QST) were compared in order to identify the evolutionary forces acting on these traits. Key Results The variability for hydraulic traits was largely due to phenotypic plasticity. Nevertheless, the vulnerability to cavitation displayed a significant genetic variability (approx. 5 % of the explained variation), and a significant genetic × environment interaction (between 5 and 19 % of the explained variation). The strong correlation between vulnerability to cavitation and survival in the xeric common garden (r = –0·81; P < 0·05) suggests a role for the former in the adaptation to xeric environments. Populations from drier sites and higher temperature seasonality were less vulnerable to cavitation than those growing at mesic sites. No trade-off between xylem safety and efficiency was detected. QST of parameters of the vulnerability curve (0·365 for P50 and the slope of the vulnerability curve and 0·452 for P88) differed substantially from FST (0·091), indicating divergent selection. In contrast, genetic drift alone was found to be sufficient to explain patterns of differentiation for xylem efficiency and growth. Conclusions The ability of P. canariensis to inhabit a wide range of ecosystems seemed to be associated with high phenotypic plasticity and some degree of local adaptations of xylem and leaf traits. Resistance to cavitation conferred adaptive potential for this species to adapt successfully to xeric conditions. PMID:23644361

Bulgarian Rila mountain forest ecosystems study site: site description and SO42-, NO3- deposition

Treesearch

Karl Zeller; Christo Bojinov; Evgeny Donev; Nedialko Nikolov

1998-01-01

Bulgaria's forest ecosystems (31 percent of the country's area) are considered vulnerable to dry and wet pollution deposition. Coniferous forests that cover one-third of the total forest land are particularly sensitive to pollution loads. The USDA Forest Service, Sofia University, and the Bulgarian Forest Research Institute (FRI) established a cooperative...

Egg mass drift increases vulnerability during early development of Cascades frogs (Rana casadae).

Treesearch

Justin M. Garwood; Clara A. Wheeler; Ryan M. Bourque; Monty D. Larson; Hartwell H. Welsh

2007-01-01

Many anuran species exhibit oviposition site selection. Female selection of oviposition sites may influence the success of offspring and increase overall fitness (Resetarits 1996). Egg mass placement (location and attachment substrate) may be determined by a number of factors including detectability by predators, water velocity, risk of desiccation or flooding, and...

Y2K Resources for Public Libraries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foster, Janet

1999-01-01

Presents information for public libraries on computer-related vulnerabilities as the century turns from 1999 to 2000. Highlights include: general Y2K information; the Y2K Bug and PCs; Y2K sites for librarians; Online Computer Library Center (OCLC) and USMARC; technological developments in cyberspace; and a list of Web sites and Y2K resources. (AEF)

Assessing vulnerable and expanding vegetation stands and species in the San Francisco Bay Area for conservation management under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morueta-Holme, N.; Heller, N. E.; McLaughlin, B.; Weiss, S. B.; Ackerly, D.

2015-12-01

The distribution of suitable climatic areas for species and vegetation types is expected to shift due to ongoing climate change. While the pace at which current distributions will shift is hard to quantify, predictions of where climatically suitable areas will be in the future can allow us to map 1) areas currently occupied by a species or vegetation type unlikely to persist through the end of this century (vulnerable stands), 2) areas likely to do better in the future and serve as nuclei for population expansion (expanding stands), and 3) areas likely to act as climate refugia (persisting stands). We quantified the vulnerability of 27 individual plant species and 27 vegetation types in the San Francisco Bay Area as well as the conservation importance, vulnerability, and resilience of selected management sites for climate change resilient conservation. To this end, we developed California-wide models of species and vegetation distributions using climate data from the 2014 California Basin Characterization Model at a 270 m resolution, projected to 18 different end-of century climate change scenarios. Combining these distribution models with high resolution maps of current vegetation, we were able to map projected vulnerable, expanding, and persisting stands within the Bay Area. We show that vegetation and species are expected to shift considerably within the study region over the next decades; although we also identify refugia potentially able to offset some of the negative impacts of climate change. We discuss the implications for managers that wish to incorporate climate change in conservation decisions, in particular related to choosing species for restoration, identifying areas to collect seeds for restoration, and preparing for expected major vegetation changes. Our evaluation of individual management sites highlights the need for stronger coordination of efforts across sites to prioritize monitoring and protection of species whose ranges are contracting elsewhere. Finally, we present and discuss novel ways in visualizing and communicating condensed predictions and their uncertainty to land managers and challenges inherent. This work is part of the Terrestrial Biodiversity and Climate Change Collaborative, committed to developing a scientific basis for climate adaptation conservation strategies.

Parents’ Online Portrayals of Pediatric Treatment and Research Options

PubMed Central

Schaffer, Rebecca; Henderson, Gail E.; Churchill, Larry R.; King, Nancy M. P.; Rothschild, Barbra B.; Lohser, Sara; Davis, Arlene M.

2012-01-01

Parents of seriously ill children face difficult decisions when standard therapies are limited or ineffective. In their search for information, they may turn to websites created by other parents facing similar experiences. We conducted a qualitative content analysis of 21 websites created by families with children affected by cancer or genetic disease, two serious conditions with a range of treatment and clinical trial options. Our research questions address how parent authors portray serious pediatric illness, available options, parties to decision making, and sources of influence. In addition, we examine what these sites reveal about family vulnerability to various risks, particularly the risk of misunderstanding the distinction between standard treatment and research and the risk of overestimating the likely benefits of research participation, as well as whether vulnerability varies by type of condition. Our results demonstrate typically favorable views on research, but with inadequate distinctions between research and treatment and a complex set of trade-offs in consideration of research risks and potential benefits. While portraits of vulnerability emerge for both parents and children, so do portraits of strength and resilience. As a result, parents describe frustration with both under- and over-protection from research participation. Our discussion of these findings clarifies the potential for parent-authored websites to inform and influence families considering research and treatment options for their seriously ill children. PMID:19754237

Importance of biometrics to addressing vulnerabilities of the U.S. infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, Craig M.; Hall, Nathaniel A.

2004-08-01

Human identification technologies are important threat countermeasures in minimizing select infrastructure vulnerabilities. Properly targeted countermeasures should be selected and integrated into an overall security solution based on disciplined analysis and modeling. Available data on infrastructure value, threat intelligence, and system vulnerabilities are carefully organized, analyzed and modeled. Prior to design and deployment of an effective countermeasure; the proper role and appropriateness of technology in addressing the overall set of vulnerabilities is established. Deployment of biometrics systems, as with other countermeasures, introduces potentially heightened vulnerabilities into the system. Heightened vulnerabilities may arise from both the newly introduced system complexities and an unfocused understanding of the set of vulnerabilities impacted by the new countermeasure. The countermeasure's own inherent vulnerabilities and those introduced by the system's integration with the existing system are analyzed and modeled to determine the overall vulnerability impact. The United States infrastructure is composed of government and private assets. The infrastructure is valued by their potential impact on several components: human physical safety, physical/information replacement/repair cost, potential contribution to future loss (criticality in weapons production), direct productivity output, national macro-economic output/productivity, and information integrity. These components must be considered in determining the overall impact of an infrastructure security breach. Cost/benefit analysis is then incorporated in the security technology deployment decision process. Overall security risks based on system vulnerabilities and threat intelligence determines areas of potential benefit. Biometric countermeasures are often considered when additional security at intended points of entry would minimize vulnerabilities.

A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S; Nugent, Philip J

Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). Formore » all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.« less

Chemical Accident Prevention: Site Security

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This chemical safety alert assists facilities that routinely handle extremely hazardous substances, along with SERCs, LEPCs, and emergency responders, in their efforts to reduce criminally caused releases and vulnerability to terrorist activity.

Modelling social vulnerability in sub-Saharan West Africa using a geographical information system

PubMed Central

Arokoyu, Samuel B.

2015-01-01

In recent times, disasters and risk management have gained significant attention, especially with increasing awareness of the risks and increasing impact of natural and other hazards especially in the developing world. Vulnerability, the potential for loss of life or property from disaster, has biophysical or social dimensions. Social vulnerability relates to societal attributes which has negative impacts on disaster outcomes. This study sought to develop a spatially explicit index of social vulnerability, thus addressing the dearth of research in this area in sub-Saharan Africa. Nineteen variables were identified covering various aspects. Descriptive analysis of these variables revealed high heterogeneity across the South West region of Nigeria for both the state and the local government areas (LGAs). Feature identification using correlation analysis identified six important variables. Factor analysis identified two dimensions, namely accessibility and socioeconomic conditions, from this subset. A social vulnerability index (SoVI) showed that Ondo and Ekiti have more vulnerable LGAs than other states in the region. About 50% of the LGAs in Osun and Ogun have a relatively low social vulnerability. Distribution of the SoVI shows that there are great differences within states as well as across regions. Scores of population density, disability and poverty have a high margin of error in relation to mean state scores. The study showed that with a geographical information system there are opportunities to model social vulnerability and monitor its evolution and dynamics across the continent.

Quantifying human vulnerability in rural areas: case study of Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stângă, I. C.; Grozavu, A.

2012-06-01

This paper aims to assess the vulnerability at regional level, the model and the proposed indicators being explicitly intended for an essentially rural region, in this case-Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania). Five categories of variables were taken into account to define the vulnerability components: rural habitat, demographic features, agriculture, environmental quality and emergency situations. For each one, five variables were analyzed and ranked based on the level of determination or subordination. In order to ensure the flexibility of the model and to avoid the criteria duplication in assessing vulnerability, only a single indicator of each category was retained and included in analysis: total number of inhabitants, dependency ratio, weight of arable land on slope categories, weight of land under forestry and road accessibility of villages. The selected indicators were mathematically processed in order to maximize their relevance and to unitary express the results in the spread 0-1. Also, values of each indicator were grouped into four classes, corresponding to the level of vulnerability: low, medium, high and very high. A general index was obtained through the integration of vulnerability factors in an equation based on the geometric mean. Spatial analysis was based on features of the MicroImages TNTmips 7.3. software, which allow the vulnerability mapping. This approach argues and states that vulnerability assessment through indicator-based methods can be made only according to the level and scale of analysis and related to natural or human conditions of a region.

Mapping Socio-Economic Vulnerability During Extreme Events (flash floods) in The Himalayan Region: A Case Study Of Bhagirathi Basin, Uttarakhand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nisha, N.; Punia, M.

2016-12-01

Mountain stratigraphic system cannot be claimed as the extraordinarily fragile but a greater range of vulnerability to disturbance than many landscape, in the physical space leading to disturbance in social space, makes it special eco-sensitive zone with greater degree of fragility. The present study furnishes socio-economic vulnerability mapping of the Bhagirathi basin through computation of the Socio vulnerability Index (SoVI). SoVI correlates vulnerability to natural or anthropogenic disasters to socio - economic development and illustrates how developmental parameters alter equation of potential effect and recovery in event of a natural catastrophe in the study region. Use of time-series datasets from different sources, including the optical remote sensing data and the use of social and/or economic data to quantify the vulnerabilities during extreme events is attempted. From the analysis it has been found that the areas with high social vulnerability index are might prone to disaster than low index area. However, the analysis of social vulnerability not only helps to identify flood risk area but also raises the question how the key drivers trigger flood and controlled by the governments and local authorities.

Depressive vulnerabilities predict depression status and trajectories of depression over 1 year in persons with acute coronary syndrome.

PubMed

Doyle, Frank; McGee, Hannah; Delaney, Mary; Motterlini, Nicola; Conroy, Ronán

2011-01-01

Depression is prevalent in patients hospitalized with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We determined whether theoretical vulnerabilities for depression (interpersonal life events, reinforcing events, cognitive distortions, Type D personality) predicted depression, or depression trajectories, post-hospitalization. We followed 375 ACS patients who completed depression scales during hospital admission and at least once during three follow-up intervals over 1 year (949 observations). Questionnaires assessing vulnerabilities were completed at baseline. Logistic regression for panel/longitudinal data predicted depression status during follow-up. Latent class analysis determined depression trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression modeled the relationship between vulnerabilities and trajectories. Vulnerabilities predicted depression status over time in univariate and multivariate analysis, even when controlling for baseline depression. Proportions in each depression trajectory category were as follows: persistent (15%), subthreshold (37%), never depressed (48%). Vulnerabilities independently predicted each of these trajectories, with effect sizes significantly highest for the persistent depression group. Self-reported vulnerabilities - stressful life events, reduced reinforcing events, cognitive distortions, personality - measured during hospitalization can identify those at risk for depression post-ACS and especially those with persistent depressive episodes. Interventions should focus on these vulnerabilities. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The vulnerabilities of the power-grid system: renewable microgrids as an alternative source of energy.

PubMed

Meyer, Victor; Myres, Charles; Bakshi, Nitin

2010-03-01

The objective of this paper is to analyse the vulnerabilities of current power-grid systems and to propose alternatives to using fossil fuel power generation and infrastructure solutions in the form of microgrids, particularly those from renewable energy sources. One of the key potential benefits of microgrids, apart from their inherent sustainability and ecological advantages, is increased resilience. The analysis is targeted towards the context of business process outsourcing in India. However, much of the research on vulnerabilities has been derived from the USA and as such many of the examples cite vulnerabilities in the USA and other developed economies. Nevertheless, the vulnerabilities noted are to a degree common to all grid systems, and so the analysis may be more broadly applicable.

Psychometric Properties and Utility of the Social Vulnerability Questionnaire for Individuals with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities.

PubMed

Fisher, Marisa H; Shivers, Carolyn M; Josol, Cynde K

2018-06-05

Although it is well-known that individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) are socially vulnerable, the field lacks valid assessments to identify risk factors for victimization. Parents/caregivers of 428 individuals with IDD (ages 12-53) completed the social vulnerability questionnaire (SVQ), a measure developed to assess specific aspects of social vulnerability among individuals with various forms of IDD. This study examined the psychometric structure of the SVQ (exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis), and the utility of the factors of the SVQ as predictors of diagnostic category (through discriminate function analysis). Results provide psychometric support for use of the SVQ and its factors for further research and as part of a clinical assessment battery to assess social vulnerability and to develop interventions.

A multi-site reconstruction algorithm for bottom-up vulnerability assessment of water resource systems to changing streamflow conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Zaerpour, M.

2016-12-01

Current paradigm for assessing the vulnerability of water resource systems to changing streamflow conditions often involves a cascade application of climate and hydrological models to project the future states of streamflow regime, entering to a given water resource system. It is widely warned, however, that the overall uncertainty in this "top-down" modeling enterprise can be large due to the limitations in representing natural and anthropogenic processes that affect future streamflow variability and change. To address this, various types of stress-tests are suggested to assess the vulnerability of water resources systems under a wide range of possible changes in streamflow conditions. The scope of such "bottom-up" assessments can go well beyond top-down projections and therefore provide a basis for monitoring different response modes, under which water resource systems become vulnerable. Despite methodological differences, all bottom-up assessments are equipped with a systematic sampling procedure, with which different possibilities for future climate and/or streamflow conditions can be realized. Regardless of recent developments, currently available streamflow sampling algorithms are still limited, particularly in regional contexts, for which accurate representation of spatiotemporal dependencies in streamflow regime are of major importance. In this presentation, we introduce a new development that enables handling temporal and spatial dependencies in regional streamflow regimes through a unified stochastic reconstruction algorithm. We demonstrate the application of this algorithm accross various Canadian regions. By considering a real-world regional water resources system, we show how the new multi-site reconstruction algorithm can extend the practical utility of bottom-up vulnerability assessment and improve quantifying the associated risk in natural and anthropogenic water systems under unknown future conditions.

Factor weighting in DRASTIC modeling.

PubMed

Pacheco, F A L; Pires, L M G R; Santos, R M B; Sanches Fernandes, L F

2015-02-01

Evaluation of aquifer vulnerability comprehends the integration of very diverse data, including soil characteristics (texture), hydrologic settings (recharge), aquifer properties (hydraulic conductivity), environmental parameters (relief), and ground water quality (nitrate contamination). It is therefore a multi-geosphere problem to be handled by a multidisciplinary team. The DRASTIC model remains the most popular technique in use for aquifer vulnerability assessments. The algorithm calculates an intrinsic vulnerability index based on a weighted addition of seven factors. In many studies, the method is subject to adjustments, especially in the factor weights, to meet the particularities of the studied regions. However, adjustments made by different techniques may lead to markedly different vulnerabilities and hence to insecurity in the selection of an appropriate technique. This paper reports the comparison of 5 weighting techniques, an enterprise not attempted before. The studied area comprises 26 aquifer systems located in Portugal. The tested approaches include: the Delphi consensus (original DRASTIC, used as reference), Sensitivity Analysis, Spearman correlations, Logistic Regression and Correspondence Analysis (used as adjustment techniques). In all cases but Sensitivity Analysis, adjustment techniques have privileged the factors representing soil characteristics, hydrologic settings, aquifer properties and environmental parameters, by leveling their weights to ≈4.4, and have subordinated the factors describing the aquifer media by downgrading their weights to ≈1.5. Logistic Regression predicts the highest and Sensitivity Analysis the lowest vulnerabilities. Overall, the vulnerability indices may be separated by a maximum value of 51 points. This represents an uncertainty of 2.5 vulnerability classes, because they are 20 points wide. Given this ambiguity, the selection of a weighting technique to integrate a vulnerability index may require additional expertise to be set up satisfactorily. Following a general criterion that weights must be proportional to the range of the ratings, Correspondence Analysis may be recommended as the best adjustment technique. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Drought disaster vulnerability mapping of agricultural sector in Bringin District, Semarang Regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lestari, D. R.; Pigawati, B.

2018-02-01

Agriculture sector is a sector that is directly affected by drought. The phenomenon of drought disaster on agriculture sector has occurred in Semarang regency. One of districts in Semarang which is affected by drought is Bringin district. Bringin district is a productive agricultural area. However, the district experienced the most severe drought in 2015. The question research of this study is, “How is the spatial distribution of drought vulnerability on agriculture sector in Bringin district, Semarang regency?” The purpose of this study is to determine the spatial distribution of drought vulnerability on agriculture sector to village units in Bringin district. This study investigated drought vulnerability based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by analyzing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity through mapping process. This study used quantitative approach. There were formulation analysis, scoring analysis, and overlay analysis. Drought vulnerability on agriculture sector in Bringin district was divided into three categories: low, medium, and high.

Model-based recursive partitioning to identify risk clusters for metabolic syndrome and its components: findings from the International Mobility in Aging Study

PubMed Central

Pirkle, Catherine M; Wu, Yan Yan; Zunzunegui, Maria-Victoria; Gómez, José Fernando

2018-01-01

Objective Conceptual models underpinning much epidemiological research on ageing acknowledge that environmental, social and biological systems interact to influence health outcomes. Recursive partitioning is a data-driven approach that allows for concurrent exploration of distinct mixtures, or clusters, of individuals that have a particular outcome. Our aim is to use recursive partitioning to examine risk clusters for metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components, in order to identify vulnerable populations. Study design Cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from a prospective longitudinal cohort called the International Mobility in Aging Study (IMIAS). Setting IMIAS includes sites from three middle-income countries—Tirana (Albania), Natal (Brazil) and Manizales (Colombia)—and two from Canada—Kingston (Ontario) and Saint-Hyacinthe (Quebec). Participants Community-dwelling male and female adults, aged 64–75 years (n=2002). Primary and secondary outcome measures We apply recursive partitioning to investigate social and behavioural risk factors for MetS and its components. Model-based recursive partitioning (MOB) was used to cluster participants into age-adjusted risk groups based on variabilities in: study site, sex, education, living arrangements, childhood adversities, adult occupation, current employment status, income, perceived income sufficiency, smoking status and weekly minutes of physical activity. Results 43% of participants had MetS. Using MOB, the primary partitioning variable was participant sex. Among women from middle-incomes sites, the predicted proportion with MetS ranged from 58% to 68%. Canadian women with limited physical activity had elevated predicted proportions of MetS (49%, 95% CI 39% to 58%). Among men, MetS ranged from 26% to 41% depending on childhood social adversity and education. Clustering for MetS components differed from the syndrome and across components. Study site was a primary partitioning variable for all components except HDL cholesterol. Sex was important for most components. Conclusion MOB is a promising technique for identifying disease risk clusters (eg, vulnerable populations) in modestly sized samples. PMID:29500203

Development, Application, and Implementation of RAMCAP to Characterize Nuclear Power Plant Risk From Terrorism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaertner, John P.; Teagarden, Grant A.

2006-07-01

In response to increased interest in risk-informed decision making regarding terrorism, EPRI and ERIN Engineering were selected by U.S. DHS and ASME to develop and demonstrate the RAMCAP method for nuclear power plant (NPP) risk assessment. The objective is to characterize plant-specific NPP risk for risk management opportunities and to provide consistent information for DHS decision making. This paper is an update of this project presented at the American Nuclear Society (ANS) International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA05) in September, 2005. The method uses a characterization of risk as a function of Consequence, Vulnerability, and Threat. For eachmore » site, worst case scenarios are developed for each of sixteen benchmark threats. Nuclear RAMCAP hypothesizes that the intent of the perpetrator is to cause offsite radiological consequences. Specific targets are the reactor core, the spent fuel pool, and nuclear spent fuel in a dry storage facility (ISFSI). Results for each scenario are presented as conditional risk for financial loss, early fatalities and early injuries. Expected consequences for each scenario are quantified, while vulnerability is estimated on a relative likelihood scale. Insights for other societal risks are provided. Although threat frequencies are not provided, target attractiveness and threat deterrence are estimated. To assure efficiency, completeness, and consistency; results are documented using standard RAMCAP Evaluator software. Trial applications were successfully performed at four plant sites. Implementation at all other U.S. commercial sites is underway, supported by the Nuclear Sector Coordinating Council (NSCC). Insights from RAMCAP results at 23 U.S. plants completed to date have been compiled and presented to the NSCC. Results are site-specific. Physical security barriers, an armed security force, preparedness for design-basis threats, rugged design against natural hazards, multiple barriers between fuel and environment, accident mitigation capability, severe accident management procedures, and offsite emergency plans are risk-beneficial against all threat types. (authors)« less

Predicting reintroduction outcomes for highly vulnerable species that do not currently coexist with their key threats.

PubMed

Parlato, Elizabeth H; Armstrong, Doug P

2018-02-17

Predicting reintroduction outcomes before populations are released is inherently challenging. It becomes even more difficult when the species being considered for reintroduction no longer co-exists with the key threats limiting its distribution. However, data from other species facing the same threats can be used to make predictions under these circumstances. We present an integrated Bayesian modelling approach for predicting growth of a reintroduced population at a range of predator densities when no data are available for the species in the presence of that predator. North Island saddlebacks (Philesturnus rufusater) were extirpated from mainland New Zealand by exotic mammalian predators, particularly ship rats (black rats, Rattus rattus), but are now being considered for reintroduction to sites with intensive predator control, creating an opportunity to develop this approach. We initially modeled data from previous saddleback reintroductions to predator-free sites to predict population growth at a new predator-free site while accounting for random variation in vital rates among sites. We then predict population growth at different rat tracking rates (an index of rat density) by incorporating a previously modelled relationship between rat tracking and vital rates of another predator-sensitive species, the North Island robin (Petroica longipes), and account for the greater vulnerability of saddlebacks to rat predation using information on historical declines of both species. The results allow population growth to be predicted as a function of management effort while accounting for uncertainty, allowing formal decision analysis to be used to decide whether to proceed with a reintroduction. Similar approaches could potentially be applied to other situations where data on the species of interest are limited, providing an alternative to decision making based solely on expert judgment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Radiocarbon dating of American pika fecal pellets provides insights into population extirpations and climate refugia.

PubMed

Millar, Constance I; Heckman, Katherine; Swanston, Christopher; Schmidt, Karena; Westfall, Robert D; Delany, Diane L

The American pika (Ochotona princeps) has become a species of concern for its sensitivity to warm temperatures and potential vulnerability to global warming. We explored the value of radiocarbon dating of fecal pellets to address questions of population persistence and timing of site extirpation. Carbon was extracted from pellets collected at 43 locations in the western Great Basin, USA, including three known occupied sites and 40 sites of uncertain status at range margins or where previous studies indicated the species is vulnerable. We resolved calibrated dates with high precision (within several years), most of which fell in the period of the mid-late 20th century bomb curve. The two-sided nature of the bomb curve renders far- and near-side dates of equal probability, which are separated by one to four decades. We document methods for narrowing resolution to one age range, including stratigraphic analysis of vegetation collected from pika haypiles. No evidence was found for biases in atmospheric 14C levels due to fossil-derived or industrial CO2 contamination. Radiocarbon dating indicated that pellets can persist for >59 years; known occupied sites resolved contemporary dates. Using combined evidence from field observations and radiocarbon dating, and the Bodie Mountains as an example, we propose a historical biogeographic scenario for pikas in minor Great Basin mountain ranges adjacent to major cordillera, wherein historical climate variability led to cycles of extirpation and recolonization during alternating cool and warm centuries. Using this model to inform future dynamics for small ranges in biogeographic settings similar to the Bodie Mountains in California, extirpation of pikas appears highly likely under directional warming trends projected for the next century, even while populations in extensive cordillera (e.g., Sierra Nevada, Rocky Mountains, Cascade Range) are likely to remain viable due to extensive, diverse habitat and high connectivity.

Vulnerability Assessment of Mangrove Habitat to the Variables of the Oceanography Using CVI Method (Coastal Vulnerability Index) in Trimulyo Mangrove Area, Genuk District, Semarang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Rifandi Raditya; Fuad, Muhammad

2018-02-01

Some functions of mangrove areas in coastal ecosystems as a green belt, because mangrove serves as a protector of the beach from the sea waves, as a good habitat for coastal biota and for nutrition supply. Decreased condition or degradation of mangrove habitat caused by several oceanographic factors. Mangrove habitats have some specific characteristics such as salinity, tides, and muddy substrates. Considering the role of mangrove area is very important, it is necessary to study about the potential of mangrove habitat so that the habitat level of mangrove habitat in the east coast of Semarang city is known. The purpose of this research is to obtain an index and condition of habitat of mangrove habitat at location of research based on tidal, salinity, substrate type, coastline change. Observation by using purposive method and calculation of habitat index value of mangrove habitat using CVI (Coastal Vulnerability Index) method with scores divided into 3 groups namely low, medium and high. The results showed that there is a zone of research belonging to the medium vulnerability category with the most influential variables is because there is abrasion that sweeps the mangrove substrate. Trimulyo mangrove habitat has high vulnerable variable of tidal frequency, then based on value variable Salinity is categorized as low vulnerability, whereas for mangrove habitat vulnerability based on variable type of substrate belong to low and medium vulnerability category. The CVI values of mangrove habitats divided into zones 1; 2; and 3 were found to varying values of 1.54; 3.79; 1.09, it indicates that there is a zone with the vulnerability of mangrove habitat at the study site belonging to low and medium vulnerability category.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Toro, Javier, E-mail: jjtoroca@unal.edu.co; Duarte, Oscar, E-mail: ogduartev@unal.edu.co; Requena, Ignacio, E-mail: requena@decsai.ugr.es

The concept of vulnerability has been used to describe the susceptibility of physical, biotic, and social systems to harm or hazard. In this sense, it is a tool that reduces the uncertainties of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) since it does not depend exclusively on the value assessments of the evaluator, but rather is based on the environmental state indicators of the site where the projects or activities are being carried out. The concept of vulnerability thus reduces the possibility that evaluators will subjectively interpret results, and be influenced by outside interests and pressures during projects. However, up until now, EIAmore » has been hindered by a lack of effective methods. This research study analyzes the concept of vulnerability, defines Vulnerability Importance and proposes its inclusion in qualitative EIA methodology. The method used to quantify Vulnerability Importance is based on a set of environmental factors and indicators that provide a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. The results obtained in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method since there is a direct relation between this value and the environmental state of the departments analyzed. - Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The concept of vulnerability could be considered defining Vulnerability Importance included in qualitative EIA methodology. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The use of the concept of environmental vulnerability could reduce the subjectivity of qualitative methods of EIA. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A method to quantify the Vulnerability Importance proposed provides a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Results in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method.« less

Soil compaction vulnerability at Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Robert H.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Carmichael, Shinji; Esque, Todd C.

2014-01-01

Compaction vulnerability of different types of soils by hikers and vehicles is poorly known, particularly for soils of arid and semiarid regions. Engineering analyses have long shown that poorly sorted soils (for example, sandy loams) compact to high densities, whereas well-sorted soils (for example, eolian sand) do not compact, and high gravel content may reduce compaction. Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument (ORPI) in southwestern Arizona, is affected greatly by illicit activities associated with the United States–Mexico border, and has many soils that resource managers consider to be highly vulnerable to compaction. Using geospatial soils data for ORPI, compaction vulnerability was estimated qualitatively based on the amount of gravel and the degree of sorting of sand and finer particles. To test this qualitative assessment, soil samples were collected from 48 sites across all soil map units, and undisturbed bulk densities were measured. A scoring system was used to create a vulnerability index for soils on the basis of particle-size sorting, soil properties derived from Proctor compaction analyses, and the field undisturbed bulk densities. The results of the laboratory analyses indicated that the qualitative assessments of soil compaction vulnerability underestimated the area of high vulnerability soils by 73 percent. The results showed that compaction vulnerability of desert soils, such as those at ORPI, can be quantified using laboratory tests and evaluated using geographic information system analyses, providing a management tool that managers potentially could use to inform decisions about activities that reduce this type of soil disruption in protected areas.

Supporting secure programming in web applications through interactive static analysis.

PubMed

Zhu, Jun; Xie, Jing; Lipford, Heather Richter; Chu, Bill

2014-07-01

Many security incidents are caused by software developers' failure to adhere to secure programming practices. Static analysis tools have been used to detect software vulnerabilities. However, their wide usage by developers is limited by the special training required to write rules customized to application-specific logic. Our approach is interactive static analysis, to integrate static analysis into Integrated Development Environment (IDE) and provide in-situ secure programming support to help developers prevent vulnerabilities during code construction. No additional training is required nor are there any assumptions on ways programs are built. Our work is motivated in part by the observation that many vulnerabilities are introduced due to failure to practice secure programming by knowledgeable developers. We implemented a prototype interactive static analysis tool as a plug-in for Java in Eclipse. Our technical evaluation of our prototype detected multiple zero-day vulnerabilities in a large open source project. Our evaluations also suggest that false positives may be limited to a very small class of use cases.

Supporting secure programming in web applications through interactive static analysis

PubMed Central

Zhu, Jun; Xie, Jing; Lipford, Heather Richter; Chu, Bill

2013-01-01

Many security incidents are caused by software developers’ failure to adhere to secure programming practices. Static analysis tools have been used to detect software vulnerabilities. However, their wide usage by developers is limited by the special training required to write rules customized to application-specific logic. Our approach is interactive static analysis, to integrate static analysis into Integrated Development Environment (IDE) and provide in-situ secure programming support to help developers prevent vulnerabilities during code construction. No additional training is required nor are there any assumptions on ways programs are built. Our work is motivated in part by the observation that many vulnerabilities are introduced due to failure to practice secure programming by knowledgeable developers. We implemented a prototype interactive static analysis tool as a plug-in for Java in Eclipse. Our technical evaluation of our prototype detected multiple zero-day vulnerabilities in a large open source project. Our evaluations also suggest that false positives may be limited to a very small class of use cases. PMID:25685513

Assessment of Hammocks (Petenes) Resilience to Sea Level Rise Due to Climate Change in Mexico

PubMed Central

Posada Vanegas, Gregorio; de Jong, Bernardus H. J.

2016-01-01

There is a pressing need to assess resilience of coastal ecosystems against sea level rise. To develop appropriate response strategies against future climate disturbances, it is important to estimate the magnitude of disturbances that these ecosystems can absorb and to better understand their underlying processes. Hammocks (petenes) coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to sea level rise linked to climate change; their vulnerability is mainly due to its close relation with the sea through underground drainage in predominantly karstic soils. Hammocks are biologically important because of their high diversity and restricted distribution. This study proposes a strategy to assess resilience of this coastal ecosystem when high-precision data are scarce. Approaches and methods used to derive ecological resilience maps of hammocks are described and assessed. Resilience models were built by incorporating and weighting appropriate indicators of persistence to assess hammocks resilience against flooding due to climate change at “Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve”, in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. According to the analysis, 25% of the study area is highly resilient (hot spots), whereas 51% has low resilience (cold spots). The most significant hot spot clusters of resilience were located in areas distant to the coastal zone, with indirect tidal influence, and consisted mostly of hammocks surrounded by basin mangrove and floodplain forest. This study revealed that multi-criteria analysis and the use of GIS for qualitative, semi-quantitative and statistical spatial analyses constitute a powerful tool to develop ecological resilience maps of coastal ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, even when high-precision data are not available. This method can be applied in other sites to help develop resilience analyses and decision-making processes for management and conservation of coastal areas worldwide. PMID:27611802

Assessment of Hammocks (Petenes) Resilience to Sea Level Rise Due to Climate Change in Mexico.

PubMed

Hernández-Montilla, Mariana C; Martínez-Morales, Miguel Angel; Posada Vanegas, Gregorio; de Jong, Bernardus H J

2016-01-01

There is a pressing need to assess resilience of coastal ecosystems against sea level rise. To develop appropriate response strategies against future climate disturbances, it is important to estimate the magnitude of disturbances that these ecosystems can absorb and to better understand their underlying processes. Hammocks (petenes) coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to sea level rise linked to climate change; their vulnerability is mainly due to its close relation with the sea through underground drainage in predominantly karstic soils. Hammocks are biologically important because of their high diversity and restricted distribution. This study proposes a strategy to assess resilience of this coastal ecosystem when high-precision data are scarce. Approaches and methods used to derive ecological resilience maps of hammocks are described and assessed. Resilience models were built by incorporating and weighting appropriate indicators of persistence to assess hammocks resilience against flooding due to climate change at "Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve", in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. According to the analysis, 25% of the study area is highly resilient (hot spots), whereas 51% has low resilience (cold spots). The most significant hot spot clusters of resilience were located in areas distant to the coastal zone, with indirect tidal influence, and consisted mostly of hammocks surrounded by basin mangrove and floodplain forest. This study revealed that multi-criteria analysis and the use of GIS for qualitative, semi-quantitative and statistical spatial analyses constitute a powerful tool to develop ecological resilience maps of coastal ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, even when high-precision data are not available. This method can be applied in other sites to help develop resilience analyses and decision-making processes for management and conservation of coastal areas worldwide.

Development of ground-water vulnerability database for the U.S. Environmental protection agency's hazard ranking system using a geographic information system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clarke, John S.; Sorensen, Jerry W.; Strickland, Henry G.; Collins, George

1992-01-01

Geographic information system (GIS) methods were applied to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) hazard ranking system (HRS) to evaluate the vulnerability of ground water to contamination from actual or potential releases of hazardous materials from waste-disposal sites. Computerized maps of four factors influencing ground-water vulnerability - hydraulic conductivity, sorptive capacity, depth to water, and net precipitation - were derived for the Southeastern United States from digitized copies of published maps and from computerized databases, including the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) national water information system. To test the accuracy of the derived data coverages used to assess ground-water vulnerability, GIS-derived values for hydraulic conductivity, depth to water, and net precipitation were compared to corresponding values assigned by EPA's field investigation teams (FIT) at 28 hazardous waste sites. For each factor, site data were divided into three physiographic groupings: (1) Coastal Plain, (2) Valley and Ridge-Interior Low Plateaus, and (3) Piedmont-Blue Ridge. The best correlation between the paired data sets was for the net precipitation factor, where most GIS-derived values were within 0 to 40% of the FIT data, and 79% were within the same HRS scoring range. For the hydraulic conductivity factor, the best correlation between GIS and FIT data was for values derived from a published surficial deposits map, where most of the values were within one order of magnitude of the FIT data, and on the average were within 1.24 orders of magnitude of the FIT data. For this map, the best match between data sets was in the Coastal Plain province, where the difference in order to magnitude averaged 0.92. For the depth-to-water factor, most of the GIS derived values were within 51 to 100% of the FIT data, and only 44 to 50% of the sites were within a common scoring range. The best correlation for depth to water was in the Coastal Plain where GIS derived values were within 8 to 100% of the FIT data.

Integrating socio-economic and infrastructural dimension to reveal hazard vulnerability of coastal districts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazumdar, Jublee; Paul, Saikat

2015-04-01

Losses of life and property due to natural hazards have intensified in the past decade, motivating an alteration of disaster management away from simple post event resettlement and rehabilitation. The degree of exposure to hazard for a homogeneous population is not entirely reliant upon nearness to the source of hazard event. Socio-economic factors and infrastructural capability play an important role in determining the vulnerability of a place. This study investigates the vulnerability of eastern coastal states of India from tropical cyclones. The record of past hundred years shows that the physical vulnerability of eastern coastal states is four times as compared to the western coastal states in terms of frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Nevertheless, these physical factors played an imperative role in determining the vulnerability of eastern coast. However, the socio-economic and infrastructural factors influence the risk of exposure exponentially. Inclusion of these indicators would provide better insight regarding the preparedness and resilience of settlements to hazard events. In this regard, the present study is an effort to develop an Integrated Vulnerability Model (IVM) based on socio-economic and infrastructural factors for the districts of eastern coastal states of India. A method is proposed for quantifying the socio-economic and infrastructural vulnerability to tropical cyclone in these districts. The variables included in the study are extracted from Census of India, 2011 at district level administrative unit. In the analysis, a large number of variables are reduced to a smaller number of factors by using principal component analysis that represents the socio-economic and infrastructure vulnerability to tropical cyclone. Subsequently, the factor scores in socio-economic Vulnerability Index (SeVI) and Infrastructure Vulnerability Index (InVI) are standardized from 0 to 1, indicating the range from low to high vulnerability. The factor scores are then mapped for spatial analysis. Utilizing SeVI and InVI, the highly vulnerable districts are demonstrated that are likely to face significant challenges in coping with tropical cyclone and require strategies to address the various aspects of socio-economic and infrastructural vulnerability. Moreover, this model can be incorporated not only for multi-level governance but also to integrate it with the real-time weather forecasts to identify the predictive areas of vulnerability.

Identifying typical patterns of vulnerability: A 5-step approach based on cluster analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sietz, Diana; Lüdeke, Matthias; Kok, Marcel; Lucas, Paul; Carsten, Walther; Janssen, Peter

2013-04-01

Specific processes that shape the vulnerability of socio-ecological systems to climate, market and other stresses derive from diverse background conditions. Within the multitude of vulnerability-creating mechanisms, distinct processes recur in various regions inspiring research on typical patterns of vulnerability. The vulnerability patterns display typical combinations of the natural and socio-economic properties that shape a systems' vulnerability to particular stresses. Based on the identification of a limited number of vulnerability patterns, pattern analysis provides an efficient approach to improving our understanding of vulnerability and decision-making for vulnerability reduction. However, current pattern analyses often miss explicit descriptions of their methods and pay insufficient attention to the validity of their groupings. Therefore, the question arises as to how do we identify typical vulnerability patterns in order to enhance our understanding of a systems' vulnerability to stresses? A cluster-based pattern recognition applied at global and local levels is scrutinised with a focus on an applicable methodology and practicable insights. Taking the example of drylands, this presentation demonstrates the conditions necessary to identify typical vulnerability patterns. They are summarised in five methodological steps comprising the elicitation of relevant cause-effect hypotheses and the quantitative indication of mechanisms as well as an evaluation of robustness, a validation and a ranking of the identified patterns. Reflecting scale-dependent opportunities, a global study is able to support decision-making with insights into the up-scaling of interventions when available funds are limited. In contrast, local investigations encourage an outcome-based validation. This constitutes a crucial step in establishing the credibility of the patterns and hence their suitability for informing extension services and individual decisions. In this respect, working at the local level provides a clear advantage since, to a large extent, limitations in globally available observational data constrain such a validation on the global scale. Overall, the five steps are outlined in detail in order to facilitate and motivate the application of pattern recognition in other research studies concerned with vulnerability analysis, including future applications to different vulnerability frameworks. Such applications could promote the refinement of mechanisms in specific contexts and advance methodological adjustments. This would further increase the value of identifying typical patterns in the properties of socio-ecological systems for an improved understanding and management of the relation between these systems and particular stresses.

Internal friction and vulnerability of mixed alkali glasses.

PubMed

Peibst, Robby; Schott, Stephan; Maass, Philipp

2005-09-09

Based on a hopping model we show how the mixed alkali effect in glasses can be understood if only a small fraction c(V) of the available sites for the mobile ions is vacant. In particular, we reproduce the peculiar behavior of the internal friction and the steep fall ("vulnerability") of the mobility of the majority ion upon small replacements by the minority ion. The single and mixed alkali internal friction peaks are caused by ion-vacancy and ion-ion exchange processes. If c(V) is small, they can become comparable in height even at small mixing ratios. The large vulnerability is explained by a trapping of vacancies induced by the minority ions. Reasonable choices of model parameters yield typical behaviors found in experiments.

Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, Richard H.; Blohm, Andrew; Delgado, Alison

2016-02-01

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Departments of Energy and Defense. The paper provides a framework of steps for climate vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. Inmore » a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change.« less

Genesis analysis of karst water trichloroethylene pollution in the east of a city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Peng; Ma, Zhenmin; Wen, Ming

2017-04-01

To understand the situation of Karst water Trichloroethylene (TCE) pollution in the east of city, Karst water samples sampled at 43 monitoring sites were analyzed. Result shows that relevance ratio of TCE is 100%, over the standard rate of 97.67% and the maximum value is 73.64μg/L, as 14.73 times as the standard value(5μg/L). Causes of groundwater TCE pollution were analyzed. Result shows that indiscriminate discharge of waste water and poor groundwater vulnerability are the main reasons. And based on the reasons, the pollution ways of TCE were found out.

Primary Care Emergency Preparedness Network, New York City, 2015: Comparison of Member and Nonmember Sites

PubMed Central

Jean, Marc C.; Chen, Bei; Molinari, Noelle-Angelique M.; LeBlanc, Tanya T.

2017-01-01

Objectives. To assess whether Primary Care Emergency Preparedness Network member sites reported indicators of preparedness for public health emergencies compared with nonmember sites. The network—a collaboration between government and New York City primary care associations—offers technical assistance to primary care sites to improve disaster preparedness and response. Methods. In 2015, we administered an online questionnaire to sites regarding facility characteristics and preparedness indicators. We estimated differences between members and nonmembers with natural logarithm–linked binomial models. Open-ended assessments identified preparedness gaps. Results. One hundred seven sites completed the survey (23.3% response rate); 47 (43.9%) were nonmembers and 60 (56.1%) were members. Members were more likely to have completed hazard vulnerability analysis (risk ratio [RR] = 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.28, 2.93), to have identified essential services for continuity of operations (RR = 1.39; 95% CI = 1.03, 1.86), to have memoranda of understanding with external partners (RR = 2.49; 95% CI = 1.42, 4.36), and to have completed point-of-dispensing training (RR = 4.23; 95% CI = 1.76, 10.14). Identified preparedness gaps were improved communication, resource availability, and train-the-trainer programs. Public Health Implications. Primary Care Emergency Preparedness Network membership is associated with improved public health emergency preparedness among primary care sites. PMID:28892448

Climate and local geomorphic interactions drive patterns of riparian forest decline along a Mediterranean Basin river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stella, John C.; Riddle, Jess; Piégay, Hervé; Gagnage, Matthieu; Trémélo, Marie-Laure

2013-11-01

Dynamic fluvial processes strongly influence ecological communities and ecosystem health in riverine and riparian ecosystems, particularly in drought-prone regions. In these systems, there is a need to develop tools to measure impacts from local and regional hydrogeomorphic changes on the key biological and physical processes that sustain riparian ecosystem health and potential recovery. We used dendrochronology of Populus nigra, a riparian tree that is vulnerable to changes in local hydrology, to analyze ecosystem response following channel incision due to gravel mining along the Drôme River, a Mediterranean Basin stream in southern France. We cored 55 trees at seven floodplain sites, measured ring widths, and calculated basal area growth to compare the severity and timing of local growth decline along the river. Current basal area increment (BAI) growth per tree ranged almost 10-fold among sites (7.7 ± 1.3 to 63.9 ± 15.2 cm2 year- 1, mean ± SE) and these differences were significant. Mean BAI was correlated positively with the proportion of healthy trees at a site, and negatively with proportion of dead canopy area. Regime shift analysis of the tree-ring series indicates that tree growth declined significantly at four sites since 1978, coincident with documented channel incision. In addition, patterns of low growth and crown dieback are consistent with stress due to reduced water supply. The most impaired sites were not directly adjacent to local mining pits visible on aerial photographs, nor did the sequence of growth regime shifts suggest a pattern of channel incision progressing from these areas. The initiation of site growth declines was most typically associated with drought years, and the most impaired sites were spatially distributed to suggest the influence of local bedrock controls on soil depth. Climate in the Drôme basin and in the Mediterranean region is trending significantly toward hotter growing seasons with a decrease in summer river discharge, and this will increase both chronic and acute water shortage for riparian trees. This study shows that drought-prone riparian forests are vulnerable to hydrogeomorphological changes, but the severity of impacts is conditioned by interactions between drivers at different scales, including regional climate variability, reach-based geomorphic alteration, and local lithological controls.

Effects of human population density and proximity to markets on coral reef fishes vulnerable to extinction by fishing.

PubMed

Brewer, T D; Cinner, J E; Green, A; Pressey, R L

2013-06-01

Coral reef fisheries are crucial to the livelihoods of tens of millions of people; yet, widespread habitat degradation and unsustainable fishing are causing severe depletion of stocks of reef fish. Understanding how social and economic factors, such as human population density, access to external markets, and modernization interact with fishing and habitat degradation to affect fish stocks is vital to sustainable management of coral reef fisheries. We used fish survey data, national social and economic data, and path analyses to assess whether these factors explain variation in biomass of coral reef fishes among 25 sites in Solomon Islands. We categorized fishes into 3 groups on the basis of life-history characteristics associated with vulnerability to extinction by fishing (high, medium, and low vulnerability). The biomass of fish with low vulnerability was positively related to habitat condition. The biomass of fishes with high vulnerability was negatively related to fishing conducted with efficient gear. Use of efficient gear, in turn, was strongly and positively related to both population density and market proximity. This result suggests local population pressure and external markets have additive negative effects on vulnerable reef fish. Biomass of the fish of medium vulnerability was not explained by fishing intensity or habitat condition, which suggests these species may be relatively resilient to both habitat degradation and fishing. © 2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

A probabilistic framework for assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: The case of the US water supply system

Treesearch

Romano Foti; Jorge A. Ramirez; Thomas C. Brown

2014-01-01

We introduce a probabilistic framework for vulnerability analysis and use it to quantify current and future vulnerability of the US water supply system. We also determine the contributions of hydro-climatic and socio-economic drivers to the changes in projected vulnerability. For all scenarios and global climatemodels examined, the US Southwest including California and...

A Transient Landscape: Geospatial Analysis and Numerical Modeling of Coastal Geomorphology in the Outer Banks, North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardin, Eric Jon

Coastal landscapes can be relentlessly dynamic---owing to wave energy, tidal cycles, extreme weather events, and perpetual coastal winds. In these settings, the ever-changing landscape can threaten assets and infrastructure, necessitating costly measures to mitigate associated risks and to repair or maintain the changing landscape. Mapping and monitoring of terrain change, identification of areas susceptible to dramatic change, and understanding the processes that drive landscape change are critical for the development of responsible coastal management strategies and policies. Over the past two decades, LiDAR mapping has been conducted along the U.S. east coast (including the Outer Banks, North Carolina) on a near annual basis---generating a rich time series of topographic data with unprecedented accuracy, resolution, and extent. This time series has captured the response of the landscape to episodic storms, daily forcing of wind and waves, and anthropogenic activities. This work presents raster-based geospatial techniques developed to gain new insights into coastal geomorphology from the time series of available LiDAR. Per-cell statistical techniques derive information that is typically not obtained through the techniques traditionally employed by coastal scientists and engineers. Application of these techniques to study sites along the Outer Banks, NC, revealed substantial spatial and temporal variations in terrain change. Additionally, they identify the foredunes as being the most geomorphologically dynamic coastal features. In addition to per-cell statistical analysis, an approach is presented for the extraction of the dune ridge and dune toe (two features that are essential to standard vulnerability assessment). The approach employs a novel application of least cost path analysis and a physics-based model of an elastic sheet. The spatially distributed nature of the approach achieves a high level of automation and repeatability that semi-automated methods and manual digitization lack. Furthermore, the approach can be fully implemented with standard Geographic Information System (GIS) functionality, resulting in efficiency and ease of implementation. With this approach, a raster-based implementation of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) storm impact scale (designed to assess storm vulnerability of barrier islands) was developed. Vulnerability of 4km of the Outer Banks to Hurricane Isabel (2003) was assessed. The demonstrated approach produced vulnerability mapping at the high resolution of the input Digital Elevation Model (DEM)---providing results at the scale needed for local management, in contrast to the USGS approach, which is designed for continental scale vulnerability assessment. However, geospatial techniques cannot fully explain the observed geomorphology. Therefore, we present the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) implementation of the Sauermann model for wind-driven sand transport. The SPH implementation enables the full nonlinearity of the model to be applied to complex scenarios that are typical of coastal landscapes. Through application of the SPH model and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling of the windborne surface shear stress (which drives sand transport), we present the sediment flux at two study sites along the Outer Banks. Scenarios were tested that involved steady-state surface shear stress as well as scenarios with intermittent variations in the surface shear stress. Results showed that intermittency in the surface shear stress has the potential to greatly influence the resulting flux. However, the degree to which intermittency does alter the flux is highly dependent on wind characteristics and wind direction relative to the orientation of salient topographic features.

Enhanced vulnerability of human proteins towards disease-associated inactivation through divergent evolution.

PubMed

Medina-Carmona, Encarnación; Fuchs, Julian E; Gavira, Jose A; Mesa-Torres, Noel; Neira, Jose L; Salido, Eduardo; Palomino-Morales, Rogelio; Burgos, Miguel; Timson, David J; Pey, Angel L

2017-09-15

Human proteins are vulnerable towards disease-associated single amino acid replacements affecting protein stability and function. Interestingly, a few studies have shown that consensus amino acids from mammals or vertebrates can enhance protein stability when incorporated into human proteins. Here, we investigate yet unexplored relationships between the high vulnerability of human proteins towards disease-associated inactivation and recent evolutionary site-specific divergence of stabilizing amino acids. Using phylogenetic, structural and experimental analyses, we show that divergence from the consensus amino acids at several sites during mammalian evolution has caused local protein destabilization in two human proteins linked to disease: cancer-associated NQO1 and alanine:glyoxylate aminotransferase, mutated in primary hyperoxaluria type I. We demonstrate that a single consensus mutation (H80R) acts as a disease suppressor on the most common cancer-associated polymorphism in NQO1 (P187S). The H80R mutation reactivates P187S by enhancing FAD binding affinity through local and dynamic stabilization of its binding site. Furthermore, we show how a second suppressor mutation (E247Q) cooperates with H80R in protecting the P187S polymorphism towards inactivation through long-range allosteric communication within the structural ensemble of the protein. Our results support that recent divergence of consensus amino acids may have occurred with neutral effects on many functional and regulatory traits of wild-type human proteins. However, divergence at certain sites may have increased the propensity of some human proteins towards inactivation due to disease-associated mutations and polymorphisms. Consensus mutations also emerge as a potential strategy to identify structural hot-spots in proteins as targets for pharmacological rescue in loss-of-function genetic diseases. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Cybersecurity Workforce Development and the Protection of Critical Infrastructure

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-31

communicat ions products, and limited travel for site visits and conferencing. The CSCC contains a developed web-based coordination site, computer ...the CSCC. The Best Practices Ana~yst position maintains a lisr of best practices, computer related patches. and standard operating procedures (SOP...involved in conducting vulnerability assessments of computer networks. To adequately exercise and experiment with industry standard software, it was

A Study of How Young Adults Leverage Multiple Profile Management Functionality in Managing Their Online Reputation on Social Networking Sites

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCune, T. John

2017-01-01

With privacy settings on social networking sites (SNS) perceived as complex and difficult to use and maintain, young adults can be left vulnerable to others accessing and using their personal information. Consequences of not regulating the boundaries their information on SNS include the ability for current and future employers to make…

Calibration of groundwater vulnerability mapping using the generalized reduced gradient method.

PubMed

Elçi, Alper

2017-12-01

Groundwater vulnerability assessment studies are essential in water resources management. Overlay-and-index methods such as DRASTIC are widely used for mapping of groundwater vulnerability, however, these methods mainly suffer from a subjective selection of model parameters. The objective of this study is to introduce a calibration procedure that results in a more accurate assessment of groundwater vulnerability. The improvement of the assessment is formulated as a parameter optimization problem using an objective function that is based on the correlation between actual groundwater contamination and vulnerability index values. The non-linear optimization problem is solved with the generalized-reduced-gradient (GRG) method, which is numerical algorithm based optimization method. To demonstrate the applicability of the procedure, a vulnerability map for the Tahtali stream basin is calibrated using nitrate concentration data. The calibration procedure is easy to implement and aims the maximization of correlation between observed pollutant concentrations and groundwater vulnerability index values. The influence of each vulnerability parameter in the calculation of the vulnerability index is assessed by performing a single-parameter sensitivity analysis. Results of the sensitivity analysis show that all factors are effective on the final vulnerability index. Calibration of the vulnerability map improves the correlation between index values and measured nitrate concentrations by 19%. The regression coefficient increases from 0.280 to 0.485. It is evident that the spatial distribution and the proportions of vulnerability class areas are significantly altered with the calibration process. Although the applicability of the calibration method is demonstrated on the DRASTIC model, the applicability of the approach is not specific to a certain model and can also be easily applied to other overlay-and-index methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Calibration of groundwater vulnerability mapping using the generalized reduced gradient method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elçi, Alper

2017-12-01

Groundwater vulnerability assessment studies are essential in water resources management. Overlay-and-index methods such as DRASTIC are widely used for mapping of groundwater vulnerability, however, these methods mainly suffer from a subjective selection of model parameters. The objective of this study is to introduce a calibration procedure that results in a more accurate assessment of groundwater vulnerability. The improvement of the assessment is formulated as a parameter optimization problem using an objective function that is based on the correlation between actual groundwater contamination and vulnerability index values. The non-linear optimization problem is solved with the generalized-reduced-gradient (GRG) method, which is numerical algorithm based optimization method. To demonstrate the applicability of the procedure, a vulnerability map for the Tahtali stream basin is calibrated using nitrate concentration data. The calibration procedure is easy to implement and aims the maximization of correlation between observed pollutant concentrations and groundwater vulnerability index values. The influence of each vulnerability parameter in the calculation of the vulnerability index is assessed by performing a single-parameter sensitivity analysis. Results of the sensitivity analysis show that all factors are effective on the final vulnerability index. Calibration of the vulnerability map improves the correlation between index values and measured nitrate concentrations by 19%. The regression coefficient increases from 0.280 to 0.485. It is evident that the spatial distribution and the proportions of vulnerability class areas are significantly altered with the calibration process. Although the applicability of the calibration method is demonstrated on the DRASTIC model, the applicability of the approach is not specific to a certain model and can also be easily applied to other overlay-and-index methods.

Stochastic landslide vulnerability modeling in space and time in a part of the northern Himalayas, India.

PubMed

Das, Iswar; Kumar, Gaurav; Stein, Alfred; Bagchi, Arunabha; Dadhwal, Vinay K

2011-07-01

Little is known about the quantitative vulnerability analysis to landslides as not many attempts have been made to assess it comprehensively. This study assesses the spatio-temporal vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides in a stochastic framework. The study includes buildings, persons inside buildings, and traffic as elements at risk to landslides. Building vulnerability is the expected damage and depends on the position of a building with respect to the landslide hazard at a given time. Population and vehicle vulnerability are the expected death toll in a building and vehicle damage in space and time respectively. The study was carried out in a road corridor in the Indian Himalayas that is highly susceptible to landslides. Results showed that 26% of the buildings fall in the high and very high vulnerability categories. Population vulnerability inside buildings showed a value >0.75 during 0800 to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours in more buildings that other times of the day. It was also observed in the study region that the vulnerability of vehicle is above 0.6 in half of the road stretches during 0800 hours to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours due to high traffic density on the road section. From this study, we conclude that the vulnerability of an element at risk to landslide is a space and time event, and can be quantified using stochastic modeling. Therefore, the stochastic vulnerability modeling forms the basis for a quantitative landslide risk analysis and assessment.

Water supply, demand, and quality indicators for assessing the spatial distribution of water resource vulnerability in the Columbia River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won; Strecker, Angela L.; Wise, Daniel; Lafrenz, Martin; Shandas, Vivek; ,; Yeakley, Alan; Pan, Yangdong; Johnson, Gunnar; Psaris, Mike

2013-01-01

We investigated water resource vulnerability in the US portion of the Columbia River basin (CRB) using multiple indicators representing water supply, water demand, and water quality. Based on the US county scale, spatial analysis was conducted using various biophysical and socio-economic indicators that control water vulnerability. Water supply vulnerability and water demand vulnerability exhibited a similar spatial clustering of hotspots in areas where agricultural lands and variability of precipitation were high but dam storage capacity was low. The hotspots of water quality vulnerability were clustered around the main stem of the Columbia River where major population and agricultural centres are located. This multiple equal weight indicator approach confirmed that different drivers were associated with different vulnerability maps in the sub-basins of the CRB. Water quality variables are more important than water supply and water demand variables in the Willamette River basin, whereas water supply and demand variables are more important than water quality variables in the Upper Snake and Upper Columbia River basins. This result suggests that current water resources management and practices drive much of the vulnerability within the study area. The analysis suggests the need for increased coordination of water management across multiple levels of water governance to reduce water resource vulnerability in the CRB and a potentially different weighting scheme that explicitly takes into account the input of various water stakeholders.

Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eidsvig, Unni; Kristensen, Krister; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn

2015-04-01

The modern society is increasingly dependent on infrastructures to maintain its function, and disruption in one of the infrastructure systems may have severe consequences. The Norwegian municipalities have, according to legislation, a duty to carry out a risk and vulnerability analysis and plan and prepare for emergencies in a short- and long term perspective. Vulnerability analysis of the infrastructures and their interdependencies is an important part of this analysis. This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures. The model prescribes a three level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. This paper focuses on the second level, which consists of a semi-quantitative analysis. The purpose of this analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures identified in the level 1 analysis and investigate the need for further analyses, i.e. level 3 quantitative analyses. The proposed level 2 analysis considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale. The proposed indicators characterize the robustness of the infrastructure, the importance of the infrastructure as well as interdependencies between society and infrastructure affecting the potential for cascading effects. Each indicator is ranked on a 1-5 scale based on pre-defined ranking criteria. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard and the number of users of the infrastructure. Case studies for two Norwegian municipalities are presented, where risk to primary road, water supply and power network threatened by storm and landslide is assessed. The application examples show that the proposed model provides a useful tool for screening of undesirable events, with the ultimate goal to reduce the societal vulnerability.

Tradeoffs between hydraulic and mechanical stress responses of mature Norway spruce trunk wood.

PubMed

Rosner, Sabine; Klein, Andrea; Müller, Ulrich; Karlsson, Bo

2008-08-01

We tested the effects of growth characteristics and basic density on hydraulic and mechanical properties of mature Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) wood from six 24-year-old clones, grown on two sites in southern Sweden differing in water availability. Hydraulic parameters assessed were specific hydraulic conductivity at full saturation (ks100) and vulnerability to cavitation (Psi50), mechanical parameters included bending strength (sigma b), modulus of elasticity (MOE), compression strength (sigma a) and Young's modulus (E). Basic density, diameter at breast height, tree height, and hydraulic and mechanical parameters varied considerably among clones. Clonal means of hydraulic and mechanical properties were strongly related to basic density and to growth parameters across sites, especially to diameter at breast height. Compared with stem wood of slower growing clones, stem wood of rapidly growing clones had significantly lower basic density, lower sigma b, MOE, sigma a and E, was more vulnerable to cavitation, but had higher ks100. Basic density was negatively correlated to Psi50 and ks100. We therefore found a tradeoff between Psi50 and ks100. Clones with high basic density had significantly lower hydraulic vulnerability, but also lower hydraulic conductivity at full saturation and thus less rapid growth than clones with low basic density. This tradeoff involved a negative relationship between Psi50 and sigma b as well as MOE, and between ks100 and sigma b, MOE and sigma a. Basic density and Psi50 showed no site-specific differences, but tree height, diameter at breast height, ks100 and mechanical strength and stiffness were significantly lower at the drier site. Basic density had no influence on the site-dependent differences in hydraulic and mechanical properties, but was strongly negatively related to diameter at breast height. Selecting for growth may thus lead not only to a reduction in mechanical strength and stiffness but also to a reduction in hydraulic safety.

Heat Wave Vulnerability Mapping for India.

PubMed

Azhar, Gulrez; Saha, Shubhayu; Ganguly, Partha; Mavalankar, Dileep; Madrigano, Jaime

2017-03-30

Assessing geographic variability in heat wave vulnerability forms the basis for planning appropriate targeted adaptation strategies. Given several recent deadly heatwaves in India, heat is increasingly being recognized as a public health problem. However, to date there has not been a country-wide assessment of heat vulnerability in India. We evaluated demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental vulnerability factors and combined district level data from several sources including the most recent census, health reports, and satellite remote sensing data. We then applied principal component analysis (PCA) on 17 normalized variables for each of the 640 districts to create a composite Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) for India. Of the total 640 districts, our analysis identified 10 and 97 districts in the very high and high risk categories (> 2SD and 2-1SD HVI) respectively. Mapping showed that the districts with higher heat vulnerability are located in the central parts of the country. On examination, these are less urbanized and have low rates of literacy, access to water and sanitation, and presence of household amenities. Therefore, we concluded that creating and mapping a heat vulnerability index is a useful first step in protecting the public from the health burden of heat. Future work should incorporate heat exposure and health outcome data to validate the index, as well as examine sub-district levels of vulnerability.

Validation of a social vulnerability index in context to river-floods in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fekete, A.

2009-03-01

Social vulnerability indices are a means for generating information about people potentially affected by disasters that are e.g. triggered by river-floods. The purpose behind such an index is in this study the development and the validation of a social vulnerability map of population characteristics towards river-floods covering all counties in Germany. This map is based on a composite index of three main indicators for social vulnerability in Germany - fragility, socio-economic conditions and region. These indicators have been identified by a factor analysis of selected demographic variables obtained from federal statistical offices. Therefore, these indicators can be updated annually based on a reliable data source. The vulnerability patterns detected by the factor analysis are verified by using an independent second data set. The interpretation of the second data set shows that vulnerability is revealed by a real extreme flood event and demonstrates that the patterns of the presumed vulnerability match the observations of a real event. It comprises a survey of flood-affected households in three federal states. By using logistic regression, it is demonstrated that the theoretically presumed indications of vulnerability are correct and that the indicators are valid. It is shown that indeed certain social groups like the elderly, the financially weak or the urban residents are higher risk groups.

Vulnerability-attention analysis for space-related activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ford, Donnie; Hays, Dan; Lee, Sung Yong; Wolfsberger, John

1988-01-01

Techniques for representing and analyzing trouble spots in structures and processes are discussed. Identification of vulnerable areas usually depends more on particular and often detailed knowledge than on algorithmic or mathematical procedures. In some cases, machine inference can facilitate the identification. The analysis scheme proposed first establishes the geometry of the process, then marks areas that are conditionally vulnerable. This provides a basis for advice on the kinds of human attention or machine sensing and control that can make the risks tolerable.

Uncertainties in Earthquake Loss Analysis: A Case Study From Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahdyiar, M.; Guin, J.

2005-12-01

Probabilistic earthquake hazard and loss analyses play important roles in many areas of risk management, including earthquake related public policy and insurance ratemaking. Rigorous loss estimation for portfolios of properties is difficult since there are various types of uncertainties in all aspects of modeling and analysis. It is the objective of this study to investigate the sensitivity of earthquake loss estimation to uncertainties in regional seismicity, earthquake source parameters, ground motions, and sites' spatial correlation on typical property portfolios in Southern California. Southern California is an attractive region for such a study because it has a large population concentration exposed to significant levels of seismic hazard. During the last decade, there have been several comprehensive studies of most regional faults and seismogenic sources. There have also been detailed studies on regional ground motion attenuations and regional and local site responses to ground motions. This information has been used by engineering seismologists to conduct regional seismic hazard and risk analysis on a routine basis. However, one of the more difficult tasks in such studies is the proper incorporation of uncertainties in the analysis. From the hazard side, there are uncertainties in the magnitudes, rates and mechanisms of the seismic sources and local site conditions and ground motion site amplifications. From the vulnerability side, there are considerable uncertainties in estimating the state of damage of buildings under different earthquake ground motions. From an analytical side, there are challenges in capturing the spatial correlation of ground motions and building damage, and integrating thousands of loss distribution curves with different degrees of correlation. In this paper we propose to address some of these issues by conducting loss analyses of a typical small portfolio in southern California, taking into consideration various source and ground motion uncertainties. The approach is designed to integrate loss distribution functions with different degrees of correlation for portfolio analysis. The analysis is based on USGS 2002 regional seismicity model.

Diagnosis of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques by time-resolved fluorescence spectroscopy and ultrasound imaging.

PubMed

Jo, J A; Fang, Q; Papaioannou, T; Qiao, J H; Fishbein, M C; Beseth, B; Dorafshar, A H; Reil, T; Baker, D; Freischlag, J; Shung, K K; Sun, L; Marcu, L

2006-01-01

In this study, time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy (TR-LIFS) and ultrasonography were applied to detect vulnerable (high-risk) atherosclerotic plaque. A total of 813 TR-LIFS measurements were taken from carotid plaques of 65 patients, and subsequently analyzed using the Laguerre deconvolution technique. The investigated spots were classified by histopathology as thin, fibrotic, calcified, low-inflamed, inflamed and necrotic lesions. Spectral and time-resolved parameters (normalized intensity values and Laguerre expansion coefficients) were extracted from the TR-LIFS data. Feature selection for classification was performed by either analysis of variance (ANOVA) or principal component analysis (PCA). A stepwise linear discriminant analysis algorithm was developed for detecting inflamed and necrotic lesion, representing the most vulnerable plaques. These vulnerable plaques were detected with high sensitivity (>80%) and specificity (>90%). Ultrasound (US) imaging was obtained in 4 carotid plaques in addition to TR-LIFS examination. Preliminary results indicate that US provides important structural information of the plaques that could be combined with the compositional information obtained by TR-LIFS, to obtain a more accurate diagnosis of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaque.

More than just talk: the framing of transactional sex and its implications for vulnerability to HIV in Lesotho, Madagascar and South Africa

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background 'Transactional sex' was regarded by the mid-1990s as an important determinant of HIV transmission, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Little attention has been paid to what the terms used to denote transactional sex suggest about how it is understood. This study provides a nuanced set of descriptions of the meaning of transactional sex in three settings. Furthermore, we discuss how discourses around transactional sex suggest linkages to processes of globalization and hold implications for vulnerability to HIV. Methods The analysis in this article is based on three case studies conducted as part of a multi-country research project that investigated linkages between economic globalization and HIV. In this analysis, we contextualize and contrast the 'talk' about transactional sex through the following research methods in three study sites: descriptions revealed through semi-structured interviews with garment workers in Lesotho; focus groups with young women and men in Antananarivo, Madagascar; and focus groups and in-depth interviews with young women and men in Mbekweni, South Africa. Results Participants' talk about transactional sex reveals two themes: (1) 'The politics of differentiation' reflects how participants used language to demarcate identities, and distance themselves from contextually-based marginalized identities; and (2) 'Gender, agency and power' describes how participants frame gendered-power within the context of transactional sex practices, and reflects on the limitations to women's power as sexual agents in these exchanges. Talk about transactional sex in our study settings supports the assertion that emerging transactional sexual practices are linked with processes of globalization tied to consumerism. Conclusions By focusing on 'talk' about transactional sex, we locate definitions of transactional sex, and how terms used to describe transactional sex are morally framed for people within their local context. We take advantage of an opportunity to comparatively explore such talk across three different study sites, and contribute to a better understanding of both emerging sexual practices and their implications for HIV vulnerability. Our work underlines that transactional sex needs to be reflected as it is perceived: something very different from, but of at least equal concern to, formal sex work in the efforts to curb HIV transmission. PMID:21961516

Measuring Road Network Vulnerability with Sensitivity Analysis

PubMed Central

Jun-qiang, Leng; Long-hai, Yang; Liu, Wei-yi; Zhao, Lin

2017-01-01

This paper focuses on the development of a method for road network vulnerability analysis, from the perspective of capacity degradation, which seeks to identify the critical infrastructures in the road network and the operational performance of the whole traffic system. This research involves defining the traffic utility index and modeling vulnerability of road segment, route, OD (Origin Destination) pair and road network. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis method is utilized to calculate the change of traffic utility index due to capacity degradation. This method, compared to traditional traffic assignment, can improve calculation efficiency and make the application of vulnerability analysis to large actual road network possible. Finally, all the above models and calculation method is applied to actual road network evaluation to verify its efficiency and utility. This approach can be used as a decision-supporting tool for evaluating the performance of road network and identifying critical infrastructures in transportation planning and management, especially in the resource allocation for mitigation and recovery. PMID:28125706

On some recent definitions and analysis frameworks for risk, vulnerability, and resilience.

PubMed

Aven, Terje

2011-04-01

Recently, considerable attention has been paid to a systems-based approach to risk, vulnerability, and resilience analysis. It is argued that risk, vulnerability, and resilience are inherently and fundamentally functions of the states of the system and its environment. Vulnerability is defined as the manifestation of the inherent states of the system that can be subjected to a natural hazard or be exploited to adversely affect that system, whereas resilience is defined as the ability of the system to withstand a major disruption within acceptable degradation parameters and to recover within an acceptable time, and composite costs, and risks. Risk, on the other hand, is probability based, defined by the probability and severity of adverse effects (i.e., the consequences). In this article, we look more closely into this approach. It is observed that the key concepts are inconsistent in the sense that the uncertainty (probability) dimension is included for the risk definition but not for vulnerability and resilience. In the article, we question the rationale for this inconsistency. The suggested approach is compared with an alternative framework that provides a logically defined structure for risk, vulnerability, and resilience, where all three concepts are incorporating the uncertainty (probability) dimension. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Rainfall-induced landslide vulnerability Assessment in urban area reflecting Urban structure and building characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C.; Cho, M.; Lee, D.

2017-12-01

Landslide vulnerability assessment methodology of urban area is proposed with urban structure and building charateristics which can consider total damage cost of climate impacts. We used probabilistic analysis method for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility by slope stability analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. And We combined debris flows with considering spatial movements under topographical condition and built environmental condition. Urban vulnerability of landslide is assessed by two categories: physical demages and urban structure aspect. Physical vulnerability is related to buildings, road, other ubran infra. Urban structure vulnerability is considered a function of the socio-economic factors, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. The analysis was performed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment because GIS can deal efficiently with a large volume of spatial data. The results of the landslide susceptibility assessment were compared with the landslide inventory, and the proposed approach demonstrated good predictive performance. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.

Social vulnerability assessment: a growing practice in Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapsell, S.; McC arthy, S.

2012-04-01

This paper builds upon work on social vulnerability from the CapHaz-Net consortium, an ongoing research project funded by the European Commission in its 7th Framework Programme. The project focuses on the social dimensions of natural hazards, as well as on regional practices of risk prevention and management, and aims at improving the resilience of European societies to natural hazards, paying particular attention to social capacity building. The topic of social vulnerability is one of seven themes being addressed in the project. There are various rationales for examining the relevance of social vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment has now been accepted as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability, and assessment of social vulnerability has been recognised as being integral to understanding the risk to natural hazards. The aim of our research was to examine social vulnerability, how it might be understood in the context of natural hazards in Europe, and how social vulnerability can be addressed to increase social capacity. The work comprised a review of research on social vulnerability to different natural hazards within Europe and included concepts and definitions of social vulnerability (and related concepts), the purpose of vulnerability assessment and who decides who is vulnerable, different approaches to assessing or measuring social vulnerability (such as the use of 'classical' quantitative vulnerability indicators and qualitative community-based approaches, along with the advantages and disadvantages of both), conceptual frameworks for assessing social vulnerability and three case studies of social vulnerability studies within Europe: flash floods in the Italian Alps, fluvial flooding in Germany and heat waves in Spain. The review reveals variable application of social vulnerability analysis across Europe and there are indications why this might be the case. Reasons could range from the scale of country policy and the particular risk management focus to the smaller scale risk management perceptions of the analysis techniques employed being to resource expensive, difficult to interpret or to operationalise. This paper will provide a context with some empirical examples to perhaps explain the growing popularity of concepts such as resilience and capacity building which lie more comfortably with policy makers and risk managers as concepts which focus on the solution rather than identifying a problem by assessing social vulnerability.

The mechanisms of neurotoxicity and the selective vulnerability of nervous system sites.

PubMed

Maurer, Laura L; Philbert, Martin A

2015-01-01

The spatial heterogeneity of the structure, function, and cellular composition of the nervous system confers extraordinary complexity and a multiplicity of mechanisms of chemical neurotoxicity. Because of its relatively high metabolic demands and functional dependence on postmitotic neurons, the nervous system is vulnerable to a variety of xenobiotics that affect essential homeostatic mechanisms that support function. Despite protection from the neuroglia and blood-brain barrier, the central nervous system is prone to attack from lipophilic toxicants and those that hijack endogenous transport, receptor, metabolic, and other biochemical systems. The inherent predilection of chemicals for highly conserved biochemical systems confers selective vulnerability of the nervous system to neurotoxicants. This chapter discusses selective vulnerability of the nervous system in the context of neuron-specific decrements (axonopathy, myelinopathy, disruption of neurotransmission), and the degree to which neuronal damage is facilitated or ameliorated by surrounding nonneural cells in both the central and peripheral nervous systems. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability of port and harbor communities to earthquake and tsunami hazards: The use of GIS in community hazard planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.

2004-01-01

AbstractEarthquakes and tsunamis pose significant threats to Pacific Northwest coastal port and harbor communities. Developing holistic mitigation and preparedness strategies to reduce the potential for loss of life and property damage requires community-wide vulnerability assessments that transcend traditional site-specific analyses. The ability of a geographic information system (GIS) to integrate natural, socioeconomic, and hazards information makes it an ideal assessment tool to support community hazard planning efforts. This article summarizes how GIS was used to assess the vulnerability of an Oregon port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards, as part of a larger risk-reduction planning initiative. The primary purposes of the GIS were to highlight community vulnerability issues and to identify areas that both are susceptible to hazards and contain valued port and harbor community resources. Results of the GIS analyses can help decision makers with limited mitigation resources set priorities for increasing community resiliency to natural hazards.

Grandiose and Vulnerable Narcissists: Who Is at Higher Risk for Social Networking Addiction?

PubMed

Casale, Silvia; Fioravanti, Giulia; Rugai, Laura

2016-08-01

Scholars have recently taken an interest in the connection between narcissism and Internet use, especially among users who frequent social networking sites (SNSs). Conversely, the association between narcissism and problematic use of SNSs (i.e., unregulated use that leads to negative outcomes) has been scarcely investigated. This study addresses this gap by comparing the mean levels of problematic use of SNSs among grandiose narcissists, vulnerable narcissists, and non-narcissists. A sample of 535 students completed the 16-item Narcissistic Personality Inventory, the Hypersensitive Narcissism Scale, and the Generalized Problematic Internet Use Scale-2 (GPIUS2). Vulnerable narcissists reported (a) significant higher levels on all GPIUS2 subscales and total scores than non-narcissists and (b) a stronger preference for online social interactions and higher overall levels of problematic use of SNSs than grandiose narcissists. Conversely, no significant differences were found between grandiose narcissists and non-narcissists. This study suggests that vulnerable narcissism may contribute more to problematic use of SNSs than grandiose narcissism.

AVQS: attack route-based vulnerability quantification scheme for smart grid.

PubMed

Ko, Jongbin; Lim, Hyunwoo; Lee, Seokjun; Shon, Taeshik

2014-01-01

A smart grid is a large, consolidated electrical grid system that includes heterogeneous networks and systems. Based on the data, a smart grid system has a potential security threat in its network connectivity. To solve this problem, we develop and apply a novel scheme to measure the vulnerability in a smart grid domain. Vulnerability quantification can be the first step in security analysis because it can help prioritize the security problems. However, existing vulnerability quantification schemes are not suitable for smart grid because they do not consider network vulnerabilities. We propose a novel attack route-based vulnerability quantification scheme using a network vulnerability score and an end-to-end security score, depending on the specific smart grid network environment to calculate the vulnerability score for a particular attack route. To evaluate the proposed approach, we derive several attack scenarios from the advanced metering infrastructure domain. The experimental results of the proposed approach and the existing common vulnerability scoring system clearly show that we need to consider network connectivity for more optimized vulnerability quantification.

Xylem vulnerability to cavitation in Pseudotsuga menziesii and Pinus ponderosa from contrasting habitats.

PubMed

Stout, Deborah H; Sala, Anna

2003-01-01

In the Rocky Mountains, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa (ssp.) ponderosa Dougl. ex P. Laws. & C. Laws) often co-occurs with Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca (Mayr) Franco). Despite previous reports showing higher shoot vulnerability to water-stress-induced cavitation in ponderosa pine, this species extends into drier habitats than Douglas-fir. We examined: (1) whether roots and shoots of ponderosa pine in riparian and slope habitats are more vulnerable to water-stress-induced cavitation than those of Douglas-fir; (2) whether species-specific differences in vulnerability translate into differences in specific conductivity in the field; and (3) whether the ability of ponderosa pine to extend into drier sites is a result of (a) greater plasticity in hydraulic properties or (b) functional or structural adjustments. Roots and shoots of ponderosa pine were significantly more vulnerable to water-stress-induced cavitation (overall mean cavitation pressure, Psi(50%) +/- SE = -3.11 +/- 0.32 MPa for shoots and -0.99 +/- 0.16 MPa for roots) than those of Douglas-fir (Psi(50%) +/- SE = -4.83 +/- 0.40 MPa for shoots and -2.12 +/- 0.35 MPa for roots). However, shoot specific conductivity did not differ between species in the field. For both species, roots were more vulnerable to cavitation than shoots. Overall, changes in vulnerability from riparian to slope habitats were small for both species. Greater declines in stomatal conductance as the summer proceeded, combined with higher allocation to sapwood and greater sapwood water storage, appeared to contribute to the ability of ponderosa pine to thrive in dry habitats despite relatively high vulnerability to water-stress-induced cavitation.

Identification of vulnerable sites in salts affected agricultural soils from South-Eastern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acosta, Jose A.; Faz, Angel; Kalbitz, Karsten; Jansen, Boris; Silvia, Martinez-Martinez

2010-05-01

Soil salinization is one of the main problems in many soils under intensive agricultural practices, especially in arid and semiarid zones. Two important reasons for the occurrence of salinization are i) the use of low quality irrigation water and ii) climatic conditions reducing soil quality. The results of salinization can be quite serious. It limits the growing of crops, constrains agricultural productivity, and in severe cases, leads to the abandonment of agricultural soils. There are mainly two kinds of soil salinity: naturally occurring dry-land salinity and human-induced salinity caused by the low quality of irrigation water, excessive water and fertilizer applications. In both cases the development of plants and soil organisms is limited. Natural occurrence of salts in soils is very difficult to handle and requires higher investments than the reduction of human-induced salinity. For these reasons, identification of vulnerable sites is essential for sustainable agricultural management, especially in these semiarid and arid environments. The main aim of this study was to examine spatial and vertical distribution pattern of salts in a semi-arid study site in South-Eastern Spain in order to identify vulnerable sites. In order to achieve this objective, surface soil samples were collected in January and July 2009 at 48 sites located in a representative lemon production area close to City of Murcia, covering a surface area of 44 km2. The area was divided using a square grid of 1000 m and the samples were taken from these squares. The ionic concentrations were used as the input data for distribution maps. The software used for the spatial analysis was Arcview 3.1. An interpolation method called the Inverse Distanced Weighted (IDW) method was adopted for the interpolation of the data. The results indicated that the concentrations of most anions are higher in summer. The difference was particularly large for chloride, most likely because of its high mobility and little adsorption to soil colloidal particles. However, other ions such as sulfate, calcium, magnesium, and sodium also displayed significant increases in concentration in July. This can be explained by the movements of soluble salt to the surface due to evaporation and capillary rise and subsequent precipitation of the salts during high temperatures and low rainfall. Rainfall or irrigation events enhance the leaching of salts to deeper soil horizons. The most affected area is located in the west of the study area, at the lowest altitude within the study area. Depressions favour accumulation of salts, due to both runoffs from higher areas during rainfall periods and poor quality irrigation water. It is recommended to use a better quality of water, at least before the summer, in order to reduce the amount of salts in the surface layer, likely to cause stress to crops growing on the soil in question. In conclusion, the spatial distribution of anions in the soil solution is very useful for predicting where higher increases in salinity will be produced. This will allow for identification of vulnerable areas and subsequent implementation of the necessary measures to decrease the risk for sensitive crops. Acknowledgements: to "Fundación Séneca" of "Comunidad Autónoma de Murcia" for its financial support.

Investigating the effectiveness of response strategies for vulnerabilities to corruption in the chinese public construction sector.

PubMed

Shan, Ming; Chan, Albert P C; Le, Yun; Hu, Yi

2015-06-01

Response strategy is a key for preventing widespread corruption vulnerabilities in the public construction sector. Although several studies have been devoted to this area, the effectiveness of response strategies has seldom been evaluated in China. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating the effectiveness of response strategies for corruption vulnerabilities through a survey in the Chinese public construction sector. Survey data obtained from selected experts involved in the Chinese public construction sector were analyzed by factor analysis and partial least squares-structural equation modeling. Analysis results showed that four response strategies of leadership, rules and regulations, training, and sanctions, only achieved an acceptable level in preventing corruption vulnerabilities in the Chinese public construction sector. This study contributes to knowledge by improving the understanding of the effectiveness of response strategies for corruption vulnerabilities in the public construction sector of developing countries.

Orphans and at-risk children in Haiti: vulnerabilities and human rights issues postearthquake.

PubMed

Nicholas, Patrice K; George, Erin K; Raymond, Nadia; Lewis-OʼConnor, Annie; Victoria, Stephanie; Lucien, Sergeline; Peters-Lewis, Angelleen; Hickey, Nancy; Corless, Inge B; Tyer-Viola, Lynda; Davis, Sheila M; Barry, Donna; Marcelin, Naomie; Valcourt, Roodeline

2012-01-01

The vulnerability of children in Haiti has increased dramatically since the earthquake in January 2010. Prior to the earthquake, the prevalence of orphans and at-risk children was high but since the earthquake, more than 1 million people-with more than 380,000 children remaining displaced and living in over 1200 displacement sites. These existing conditions leave orphans and at-risk children vulnerable to exploitation, abuse, and increased risk of HIV/AIDS. This article will focus on the complex issues affecting orphans and at-risk children and the intersection with HIV/AIDS and human rights. Specific recommendations by United Nations Children's Fund are discussed. Nursing in Haiti must address the policy-related and population-specific approaches for the care of children living with or affected by HIV/AIDS.

Understanding of urban hazards, fire, and tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hays, Walter W.; ,

1997-01-01

Understanding of the causes and solutions of an urban area's (e.g., Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Oakland, Seattle, Portland, Anchorage, Salt Lake City, Memphis, St. Louis, Charleston, Boston, San Juan) vulnerability to earthquakes, fire, and tsunamis has increased significantly during the past 50 years, and during the current International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Vulnerability is caused by flaws in planning, siting, design, construction, and use. It is fundamentally dependent upon the hazard, built, and policy environments of the urban area. Reduction of vulnerability is directly related to the decision-making process that calls for the adoption and enforcement of risk management programs (e.g., mitigation, preparedness, emergency response, and recovery measures) that are designed to make the urban area resilient to earthquakes, fires, and, as appropriate, tsunamis.

Factors Contributing to Exacerbating Vulnerabilities in Global Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

da Silva, Ricardo E.; Amato, Angélica A.; Guilhem, Dirce B.; de Carvalho, Marta R.; Lima, Elisangela da C.; Novaes, Maria Rita C. G.

2018-01-01

Background: Although policies and guidelines make use of the concept of vulnerability, few define it. The European Union's directive for clinical trials does not include explanations for or the reasoning behind the designation of certain groups as vulnerable. Emerging economies from lower middle-income countries have, in recent years, had the largest average annual growth rate, as well as increase, in number of clinical trials registered in the US government's database. Nevertheless, careful supervision of research activities has to be ensured. Objective: To describe and analyze the features of the clinical trials involving vulnerable populations in various countries classified by development status and geographic region. Methods: Retrospective study that involved analysis of data obtained from the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) database between 01/2014 and 12/2014 from countries with (i) highest trial densities during 2005 to 2012, (ii) highest average growth rate in clinical trials, and (iii) greatest trial capabilities. Results: Statistical analysis of this study showed that patients incapable of giving consent personally are 11.4 times more likely to be vulnerable patients than patients who are capable, and that patients in upper-middle-income countries are 1.7 times more likely to be vulnerable patients than patients from high-income countries when participating in global clinical trials. Malaysia (21%), Egypt (20%), Turkey (19%), Israel (18%), and Brazil (17%) had the highest percentages of vulnerable populations involving children. Conclusions: Although the inability to provide consent personally was a factor associated with vulnerability, arbitrary criteria may have been considered when classifying the populations of clinical trials as vulnerable. The EU Clinical Trials Register should provide guidance regarding exactly what aspects or factors should be taken into account to frame given populations as vulnerable, because vulnerability is not applicable to all risk situations. PMID:29403381

Factors Contributing to Exacerbating Vulnerabilities in Global Clinical Trials.

PubMed

da Silva, Ricardo E; Amato, Angélica A; Guilhem, Dirce B; de Carvalho, Marta R; Lima, Elisangela da C; Novaes, Maria Rita C G

2017-01-01

Background: Although policies and guidelines make use of the concept of vulnerability, few define it. The European Union's directive for clinical trials does not include explanations for or the reasoning behind the designation of certain groups as vulnerable. Emerging economies from lower middle-income countries have, in recent years, had the largest average annual growth rate, as well as increase, in number of clinical trials registered in the US government's database. Nevertheless, careful supervision of research activities has to be ensured. Objective: To describe and analyze the features of the clinical trials involving vulnerable populations in various countries classified by development status and geographic region. Methods: Retrospective study that involved analysis of data obtained from the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) database between 01/2014 and 12/2014 from countries with (i) highest trial densities during 2005 to 2012, (ii) highest average growth rate in clinical trials, and (iii) greatest trial capabilities. Results: Statistical analysis of this study showed that patients incapable of giving consent personally are 11.4 times more likely to be vulnerable patients than patients who are capable, and that patients in upper-middle-income countries are 1.7 times more likely to be vulnerable patients than patients from high-income countries when participating in global clinical trials. Malaysia (21%), Egypt (20%), Turkey (19%), Israel (18%), and Brazil (17%) had the highest percentages of vulnerable populations involving children. Conclusions: Although the inability to provide consent personally was a factor associated with vulnerability, arbitrary criteria may have been considered when classifying the populations of clinical trials as vulnerable. The EU Clinical Trials Register should provide guidance regarding exactly what aspects or factors should be taken into account to frame given populations as vulnerable, because vulnerability is not applicable to all risk situations.

Global assessment of coastal aquifer state and its vulnerability respect to Sea Water Intrusion. Application to several Mediterranean Coastal Aquifers.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baena, Leticia; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Renau-Pruñonosa, Arianna; Morell, Ignacio

2017-04-01

In this research we propose a method for a global assessment of coastal aquifer state and its vulnerability to Sea Water Intrusion (SWI). It is based on two indices, the MART index, which summarize the global significance of the SWI phenomenon, and the L_GALDIT for a lumped assessment of the vulnerability to SWI. Both of them can be useful as a tool to assess coastal groundwater bodies in risk of not achieving good status in accordance with the Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000) and to identify possible management alternative to reduce existing impacts. They can be obtained even from a reduced number of data (in the MART case only depend on the geometry and available aquifer state data) with simple calculations, which have been implemented in a general GIS tool that can be easily applied to other case studies. The MART index in an aquifer is related with the total mass of chloride in the aquifer due to sea water intrusion and can be obtained by simple linear operations of volume and concentrations that can be deduced from a schematic conceptual cross-section approach (orthogonal to the shore line) defined to summarize the intrusion volume in the aquifer. At a certain historical time, this representative aquifer cross-section can be defined in a systhematic way from the aquifer geometry, the specific yield, and the hydraulic head and chloride concentration fields that can be deduced from the available information by using appropriate interpolation methods. Following the proposed procedure we will finally obtain a summary of the historical significance of the SWI in an aquifer at different spatial resolution: 3D salinity concentration maps, 2D representative conceptual cross-section of intrusion and the MART lumped significance index. The historical evolution of the MART can be employed to perform a global assessment of the resilience and trends of global significance of the SWI in an aquifer. It can be useful to compare the significance of intrusion problems in different groundwater bodies and temporal periods. Some assumptions and hypothesis assumed in this analysis of the significance of SWI were also applied in a previous research work, the SITE index (Ballesteros et al., 2016). Finally, we have also obtained vulnerability maps to SWI by applying the GALDIT method (Chachadi and Lobo-Ferreria, 2007). As in the analysis of the significance, we propose to apply an analogous procedure to summarize the vulnerability of the aquifer to SWI at different spatial scale: 2D vulnerability maps, 2D representative conceptual cross-section of the vulnerability and a global vulnerability index (L_GALDIT). The historical evolution of the L_GALDIT could be also employed to perform a global assessment of the resilience and trends of the global vulnerability of the SWI in an aquifer. While MART index is calculated using only physical variables, L_GALDIT employs weighted qualitative characteristics based on expert criteria. It can be useful to combine both MART and L_GALDIT indices in order to obtain a general knowledge of SWI in an aquifer. This research has been supported by the CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R (MINECO) project.

Construction of an integrated social vulnerability index in urban areas prone to flash flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aroca-Jimenez, Estefania; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

2017-09-01

Among the natural hazards, flash flooding is the leading cause of weather-related deaths. Flood risk management (FRM) in this context requires a comprehensive assessment of the social risk component. In this regard, integrated social vulnerability (ISV) can incorporate spatial distribution and contribution and the combined effect of exposure, sensitivity and resilience to total vulnerability, although these components are often disregarded. ISV is defined by the demographic and socio-economic characteristics that condition a population's capacity to cope with, resist and recover from risk and can be expressed as the integrated social vulnerability index (ISVI). This study describes a methodological approach towards constructing the ISVI in urban areas prone to flash flooding in Castilla y León (Castile and León, northern central Spain, 94 223 km2, 2 478 376 inhabitants). A hierarchical segmentation analysis (HSA) was performed prior to the principal components analysis (PCA), which helped to overcome the sample size limitation inherent in PCA. ISVI was obtained from weighting vulnerability factors based on the tolerance statistic. In addition, latent class cluster analysis (LCCA) was carried out to identify spatial patterns of vulnerability within the study area. Our results show that the ISVI has high spatial variability. Moreover, the source of vulnerability in each urban area cluster can be identified from LCCA. These findings make it possible to design tailor-made strategies for FRM, thereby increasing the efficiency of plans and policies and helping to reduce the cost of mitigation measures.

Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model) - a case study for Bucharest, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaş, I.; Gavriş, A.

2013-06-01

In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model) and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model). Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

Study on the Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment in Sanjiang Plain in Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Tang, W. K.; Liu, C.

2012-12-01

The Sanjiang Plain is located in eastern part of China's Heilongjiang Province.It's total area is 109 000 km2, with cultivated land area being 3.6677 million hm2. It is a major national commodity grain base. Rice planting area in Sanjiang Plain has been increasing year by year. Groundwater exploitation is increasing rapidly as a result of rapid increase of paddy field area. It is necessary to research and analyze spatial diversity of groundwater pollution vulnerability for Sanjiang Plain, so as to fulfill the goal of integrated planning, rational utilization of land and water resource, avoiding or minimizing groundwater contamination, and protecting grain security of China. Based on the commonly used DRASTIC method internationally, and according to hydrogeology, land use and other characteristics of Sanjiang Plain, this paper establishes groundwater vulnerability assessment index system. Since the Sanjiang Plain is an area that gives priority to agriculture, and impact of agricultural land and agricultural activity on groundwater vulnerability can not be ignored. Two indicators of agricultural land use rate (L) and population density (P) are increased in the DRASTC index system, the remaining 5 indicators are groundwater depth (D), aquifer net recharge(R), aquifer media type (A), soil type(S), aquifer hydraulic conductivity (C). Taking ArcGis as a calculation analysis platform to assess groundwater vulnerability of the Sanjiang Plain, by using hierarchical analysis method of the fuzzy mathematics method to calculate each index weigh of evaluation vulnerability. This paper applies 6 levels of assessment standard as follows: vulnerability index DI <2 stands for not vulnerable; 2 8 stands for extremely vulnerable. Groundwater vulnerably contaminated area is delineated based on the groundwater vulnerability spatial distribution of Sanjiang Plain. Reasonable land use plan should be made, and strictly groundwater protection measures should be taken to reduce the risk of groundwater contamination.

Information Security Controls against Cross-Site Request Forgery Attacks on Software Applications of Automated Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barabanov, A. V.; Markov, A. S.; Tsirlov, V. L.

2018-05-01

This paper presents statistical results and their consolidation, which were received in the study into security of various web-application against cross-site request forgery attacks. Some of the results were received in the study carried out within the framework of certification for compliance with information security requirements. The paper provides the results of consolidating information about the attack and protection measures, which are currently used by the developers of web-applications. It specifies results of the study, which demonstrate various distribution types: distribution of identified vulnerabilities as per the developer type (Russian and foreign), distribution of the security measures used in web-applications, distribution of the identified vulnerabilities as per the programming languages, data on the number of security measures that are used in the studied web-applications. The results of the study show that in most cases the developers of web-applications do not pay due attention to protection against cross-site request forgery attacks. The authors give recommendations to the developers that are planning to undergo a certification process for their software applications.

Ultrabroadband photonic internet: safety aspects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalicki, Arkadiusz; Romaniuk, Ryszard

2008-11-01

Web applications became most popular medium in the Internet. Popularity, easiness of web application frameworks together with careless development results in high number of vulnerabilities and attacks. There are several types of attacks possible because of improper input validation. SQL injection is ability to execute arbitrary SQL queries in a database through an existing application. Cross-site scripting is the vulnerability which allows malicious web users to inject code into the web pages viewed by other users. Cross-Site Request Forgery (CSRF) is an attack that tricks the victim into loading a page that contains malicious request. Web spam in blogs. There are several techniques to mitigate attacks. Most important are web application strong design, correct input validation, defined data types for each field and parameterized statements in SQL queries. Server hardening with firewall, modern security policies systems and safe web framework interpreter configuration are essential. It is advised to keep proper security level on client side, keep updated software and install personal web firewalls or IDS/IPS systems. Good habits are logging out from services just after finishing work and using even separate web browser for most important sites, like e-banking.

Physically-based modelling of high magnitude torrent events with uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing-Yuen Chow, Candace; Ramirez, Jorge; Zimmermann, Markus; Keiler, Margreth

2017-04-01

High magnitude torrent events are associated with the rapid propagation of vast quantities of water and available sediment downslope where human settlements may be established. Assessing the vulnerability of built structures to these events is a part of consequence analysis, where hazard intensity is related to the degree of loss sustained. The specific contribution of the presented work describes a procedure simulate these damaging events by applying physically-based modelling and to include uncertainty information about the simulated results. This is a first step in the development of vulnerability curves based on several intensity parameters (i.e. maximum velocity, sediment deposition depth and impact pressure). The investigation process begins with the collection, organization and interpretation of detailed post-event documentation and photograph-based observation data of affected structures in three sites that exemplify the impact of highly destructive mudflows and flood occurrences on settlements in Switzerland. Hazard intensity proxies are then simulated with the physically-based FLO-2D model (O'Brien et al., 1993). Prior to modelling, global sensitivity analysis is conducted to support a better understanding of model behaviour, parameterization and the quantification of uncertainties (Song et al., 2015). The inclusion of information describing the degree of confidence in the simulated results supports the credibility of vulnerability curves developed with the modelled data. First, key parameters are identified and selected based on literature review. Truncated a priori ranges of parameter values were then defined by expert solicitation. Local sensitivity analysis is performed based on manual calibration to provide an understanding of the parameters relevant to the case studies of interest. Finally, automated parameter estimation is performed to comprehensively search for optimal parameter combinations and associated values, which are evaluated using the observed data collected in the first stage of the investigation. O'Brien, J.S., Julien, P.Y., Fullerton, W. T., 1993. Two-dimensional water flood and mudflow simulation. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 119(2): 244-261.
 Song, X., Zhang, J., Zhan, C., Xuan, Y., Ye, M., Xu C., 2015. Global sensitivity analysis in hydrological modeling: Review of concepts, methods, theoretical frameworks, Journal of Hydrology 523: 739-757.

Traits influencing range contraction in New Zealand's endemic forest birds.

PubMed

Parlato, Elizabeth H; Armstrong, Doug P; Innes, John G

2015-10-01

Understanding vulnerability of endemic taxa to predation is clearly important for conservation management. In New Zealand, predation by introduced mammals such as rats and mustelids is widely recognized as the primary factor responsible for declines of indigenous fauna. The aim of our study was to evaluate the vulnerability of New Zealand's surviving endemic forest bird species to impacts of introduced mammalian predators, and identify key life history attributes underlying this vulnerability. We measured range contraction following the introduction of exotic mammalian predators for 23 endemic forest bird species using information on both pre-human and current distributions. We used Bayesian modeling techniques to analyze whether variation in range contraction was associated with life history traits potentially influencing species' predation vulnerability, while accounting for phylogenetic relatedness. Our results showed that the extent of range contraction varied greatly among species, with some species remaining in available forest habitat throughout most of their pre-human range, and others having disappeared completely from the main islands. Cavity nesting was the key trait associated with more extensive range decline, suggesting that cavity-nesting species are more vulnerable to predation than species that nest in more open sites.

Setting Priorities in Behavioral Interventions: An Application to Reducing Phishing Risk.

PubMed

Canfield, Casey Inez; Fischhoff, Baruch

2018-04-01

Phishing risk is a growing area of concern for corporations, governments, and individuals. Given the evidence that users vary widely in their vulnerability to phishing attacks, we demonstrate an approach for assessing the benefits and costs of interventions that target the most vulnerable users. Our approach uses Monte Carlo simulation to (1) identify which users were most vulnerable, in signal detection theory terms; (2) assess the proportion of system-level risk attributable to the most vulnerable users; (3) estimate the monetary benefit and cost of behavioral interventions targeting different vulnerability levels; and (4) evaluate the sensitivity of these results to whether the attacks involve random or spear phishing. Using parameter estimates from previous research, we find that the most vulnerable users were less cautious and less able to distinguish between phishing and legitimate emails (positive response bias and low sensitivity, in signal detection theory terms). They also accounted for a large share of phishing risk for both random and spear phishing attacks. Under these conditions, our analysis estimates much greater net benefit for behavioral interventions that target these vulnerable users. Within the range of the model's assumptions, there was generally net benefit even for the least vulnerable users. However, the differences in the return on investment for interventions with users with different degrees of vulnerability indicate the importance of measuring that performance, and letting it guide interventions. This study suggests that interventions to reduce response bias, rather than to increase sensitivity, have greater net benefit. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to be used in early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, G.; Barbosa, P.; Garrote, L.; Iglesias, A.; Vogt, J.

2014-05-01

We propose a composite drought vulnerability indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level for four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation, is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore, we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided into the following geographical regions: the Mediterranean coast of Africa; the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa; the Serengeti and the Eastern Miombo woodlands in eastern Africa; the western part of the Zambezi Basin, the southeastern border of the Congo Basin, and the belt of Fynbos in the Western Cape province of South Africa. The results of the DVI at the country level were compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database. Even if a cause-effect relationship cannot be established between the DVI and the drought disaster database, a good agreement is observed between the drought vulnerability maps and the number of persons affected by droughts. These results are expected to contribute to the discussion on how to assess drought vulnerability and hopefully contribute to the development of drought early warning systems in Africa.

Vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous climate and socioeconomic changes: a double exposure analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangpenchan, R.

2011-12-01

This research explores the vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous exposure by climate and socioeconomic change -- so-called "double exposure." Both processes influence Thailand's rice production system, but the vulnerabilities associated with their interactions are unknown. To understand this double exposure, I adopts a mixed-method, qualitative-quantitative analytical approach consisting of three phases of analysis involving a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram, a Principal Component Analysis, and the EPIC crop model using proxy datasets collected from secondary data sources at provincial scales.The first and second phases identify key variables representing each of the three dimensions of vulnerability -- exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicating that the greatest vulnerability in the rice production system occurs in households and areas with high exposure to climate change, high sensitivity to climate and socioeconomic stress, and low adaptive capacity. In the third phase, the EPIC crop model simulates rice yields associated with future climate change projected by CSIRO and MIROC climate models. Climate change-only scenarios project the decrease in yields by 10% from the current productivity during 2016-2025 and 30% during 2045-2054. Scenarios applying both climate change and improved technology and management practices show that a 50% increase in rice production is possible, but requires strong collaboration between sectors to advance agricultural research and technology and requires strong adaptive capacity in the rice production system characterized by well-developed social capital, social networks, financial capacity, and infrastructure and household mobility at the local scale. The vulnerability assessment and climate and crop adaptation simulations used here provide useful information to decision makers developing vulnerability reduction plans in the face of concurrent climate and socioeconomic change.

The vulnerability of family caregivers in relation to vulnerability as understood by nurses.

PubMed

Sarvimäki, Anneli; Stenbock-Hult, Bettina; Sundell, Eija; Oesch-Börman, Christine

2017-03-01

In Finland, the care of older persons is shifting from institutional care to family care. Research shows that family caregivers experience their situation much in the same way as professional nurses. The nurses' experiences have been studied in terms of vulnerability, and the same perspective could deepen our understanding of family caregivers' experiences. The aim of this study was to gain knowledge of the vulnerability of older caregivers taking care of an ageing family member. The research questions were as follows: How do family caregivers experience vulnerability? How do their experiences relate to vulnerability as understood by nurses? The study was done as a secondary analysis of focus group interviews on the experiences and daily life of older family caregivers. Four caregivers had taken part in monthly interviews during a period of 10 months. The interviews were analysed by deductive and inductive content analysis. The results showed that the caregivers saw caregiving as part of being human. They experienced a variety of feelings and moral agony and were harmed physically, mentally and socially. They showed courage, protected themselves and recognised that being a caregiver also was a source of maturing and developing. These results corresponded with the nurses' understanding of vulnerability. Shame, the experience of duty as a burden, worry and loneliness were themes that were found only among the family caregivers. The use of a matrix may have restricted the analysis, but using it in an unconstrained way allowed for new themes to be created. The results indicate a common humanness and vulnerability in professional and family caregiving. They also show that family caregivers need more support both from society and professionals. © 2016 Nordic College of Caring Science.

Vulnerability to the transmission of human visceral leishmaniasis in a Brazilian urban area

PubMed Central

de Toledo, Celina Roma Sánchez; de Almeida, Andréa Sobral; Chaves, Sergio Augusto de Miranda; Sabroza, Paulo Chagastelles; Toledo, Luciano Medeiros; Caldas, Jefferson Pereira

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the determinants for the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis linked to the conditions of vulnerability. METHODS This is an ecological study, whose spatial analysis unit was the Territorial Analysis Unit in Araguaína, State of Tocantins, Brazil, from 2007 to 2012. We have carried out an analysis of the sociodemographic and urban infrastructure situation of the municipality. Normalized primary indicators were calculated and used to construct the indicators of vulnerability of the social structure, household structure, and urban infrastructure. From them, we have composed a vulnerability index. Kernel density estimation was used to evaluate the density of cases of human visceral leishmaniasis, based on the coordinates of the cases. Bivariate global Moran’s I was used to verify the existence of spatial autocorrelation between the incidence of human visceral leishmaniasis and the indicators and index of vulnerability. Bivariate local Moran’s I was used to identify spatial clusters. RESULTS We have observed a pattern of centrifugal spread of human visceral leishmaniasis in the municipality, where outbreaks of the disease have progressively reached central and peri-urban areas. There has been no correlation between higher incidences of human visceral leishmaniasis and worse living conditions. Statistically significant clusters have been observed between the incidences of human visceral leishmaniasis in both periods analyzed (2007 to 2009 and 2010 to 2012) and the indicators and index of vulnerability. CONCLUSIONS The environment in circumscribed areas helps as protection factor or increases the local vulnerability to the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis. The use of methodology that analyzes the conditions of life of the population and the spatial distribution of human visceral leishmaniasis is essential to identify the most vulnerable areas to the spread/maintenance of the disease. PMID:28513764

How Researchers Define Vulnerable Populations in HIV/AIDS Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Lo, Bernard; Strauss, Ronald P.; Eron, Joseph; Gifford, Allen L.

2010-01-01

In this study, we interviewed researchers, asking them to define vulnerable populations in HIV/AIDS clinical trials, and provide feedback on the federal regulations for three vulnerable populations. Interview data informed a conceptual framework, and were content analyzed to identify acceptability or disagreement with the regulations. Beginning with several characteristics of vulnerable enrollees identified by researchers, the conceptual framework illustrates possible scenarios of how enrollees could be considered vulnerable in clinical research. Content analysis identified barriers affecting HIV/AIDS researchers’ ability to conduct clinical trials with pregnant women, prisoners, and children, for which the regulations specify additional protections. This study challenges current thinking about federal regulations’ group-based approach to defining vulnerable populations. PMID:20721614

Vulnerability Analysis and Evaluation of Urban Road System in Tianjin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y. Q.; Wu, X.

In recent years, with the development of economy, the road construction of our country has entered into a period of rapid growth. The road transportation network has been expanding and the risk of disasters is increasing. In this paper we study the vulnerability of urban road system in Tianjin. After analyzed many risk factors of the urban road system security, including road construction, road traffic and the natural environment, we proposed an evaluation index of vulnerability of urban road system and established the corresponding evaluation index system. Based on the results of analysis and comprehensive evaluation, appropriate improvement measures and suggestions which may reduce the vulnerability of the road system and improve the safety and reliability of the road system are proposed.

Assessing Household Economic Vulnerability in HIV-Affected Communities in Five Regions of Côte d'Ivoire

PubMed Central

Burke, Holly M.; Moret, Whitney; Field, Samuel; Chen, Mario; Zeng, Yanwu; Seka, Firmin M.

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to identify and describe levels of household economic vulnerability in HIV-affected communities in Côte d’Ivoire, defined as those with a high prevalence of HIV and large numbers of orphans and vulnerable children. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 3,749 households in five health regions of Côte d’Ivoire. Using principal component analysis, we attempted to identify sets of correlated vulnerabilities and derive a small number of composite scores to create an index for targeting interventions to vulnerable populations. The 65 vulnerability measures examined did not cluster in ways that would allow for the creation of a small number of composite measures. Instead, we found that households face numerous unique pathways to vulnerability. PMID:27655530

Linking local vulnerability to climatic hazard damage assessment for integrated river basin management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Liu, Yi-Chung; Chien, Sung-Ying

2015-04-01

1. Background Major portions of areas in Asia are expected to increase exposure and vulnerability to climate change and weather extremes due to rapid urbanization and overdevelopment in hazard-prone areas. To prepare and confront the potential impacts of climate change and related hazard risk, many countries have implemented programs of integrated river basin management. This has led to an impending challenge for the police-makers in many developing countries to build effective mechanism to assess how the vulnerability distributes over river basins, and to understand how the local vulnerability links to climatic (climate-related) hazard damages and risks. However, the related studies have received relatively little attention. This study aims to examine whether geographic localities characterized by high vulnerability experience significantly more damages owing to onset weather extreme events at the river basin level, and to explain what vulnerability factors influence these damages or losses. 2. Methods and data An indicator-based assessment framework is constructed with the goal of identifying composite indicators (including exposure, biophysical, socioeconomic, land-use and adaptive capacity factors) that could serve as proxies for attributes of local vulnerability. This framework is applied by combining geographical information system (GIS) techniques with multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to evaluate and map integrated vulnerability to climatic hazards across river basins. Furthermore, to explain the relationship between vulnerability factors and disaster damages, we develop a disaster damage model (DDM) based on existing disaster impact theory. We then synthesize a Zero-Inflated Poisson regression model with a Tobit regression analysis to identify and examine how the disaster impacts and vulnerability factors connect to typhoon disaster damages and losses. To illustrate the proposed methodology, the study collects data on the vulnerability attributes of the Kaoping, Tsengwen, and Taimali River basins in southern Taiwan, and on the disaster impacts and damages in these river basins due to Typhoon Morakot in 2009. The data was offered by the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan, as well as collected from the National Land Use Investigation, official census statistics and questionnaire surveys. 3. Results We use an MCDA to create a composite vulnerability index, and this index is incorporated into a GIS analysis to demonstrate the results of integrated vulnerability assessment throughout the river basins. Results of the vulnerability assessment indicate that the most vulnerable areas are almost all situated in the regions of middle and upper reaches of the river basins. Through the examining of DDM, it shows that the vulnerability factors play a critical role in determining disaster damages. Findings also present that the losses and casualties caused by Typhoon Morakot increase with elevation, urban and agricultural developments, proximity to rivers, and decrease with levels of income and adaptive capacity. Finally, we propose the adaptive options for minimizing vulnerability and risk, as well as for integrated river basin governance.

Parental Depression and Child Cognitive Vulnerability Predict Children’s Cortisol Reactivity

PubMed Central

Hayden, Elizabeth P.; Hankin, Benjamin L.; Mackrell, Sarah V.M.; Sheikh, Haroon I.; Jordan, Patricia L.; Dozois, David J.A.; Singh, Shiva M.; Olino, Thomas M.; Badanes, Lisa S.

2015-01-01

Risk for depression is expressed across multiple levels of analysis. For example, parental depression and cognitive vulnerability are known markers of depression risk, but no study has examined their interactive effects on children’s cortisol reactivity, a likely mediator of early depression risk. We examined relations across these different levels of vulnerability using cross-sectional and longitudinal methods in two community samples of children. Children were assessed for cognitive vulnerability using self-reports (Study 1; n = 244) and tasks tapping memory and attentional bias (Study 2; n = 205), and their parents were assessed for depression history using structured clinical interviews. In both samples, children participated in standardized stress tasks and cortisol reactivity was assessed. Cross-sectionally and longitudinally, parental depression history and child cognitive vulnerability interacted to predict children’s cortisol reactivity; specifically, associations between parent depression and elevated child cortisol activity were found when children also showed elevated depressotypic attributions, as well as attentional and memory biases. Findings indicate that models of children’s emerging depression risk may benefit from the examination of the interactive effects of multiple sources of vulnerability across levels of analysis. PMID:25422972

GIS Analysis of Changes in Ecological Vulnerability Using a SPCA Model in the Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi, China

PubMed Central

Kang, Hou; Xuxiang, Li; Jing, Zhang

2015-01-01

Changes in ecological vulnerability were analyzed for Northern Shaanxi, China using a geographic information system (GIS). An evaluation model was developed using a spatial principal component analysis (SPCA) model containing land use, soil erosion, topography, climate, vegetation and social economy variables. Using this model, an ecological vulnerability index was computed for the research region. Using natural breaks classification (NBC), the evaluation results were divided into five types: potential, slight, light, medium and heavy. The results indicate that there is greater than average optimism about the conditions of the study region, and the ecological vulnerability index (EVI) of the southern eight counties is lower than that of the northern twelve counties. From 1997 to 2011, the ecological vulnerability index gradually decreased, which means that environmental security was gradually enhanced, although there are still some places that have gradually deteriorated over the past 15 years. In the study area, government and economic factors and precipitation are the main reasons for the changes in ecological vulnerability. PMID:25898407

Uncertainty analysis in vulnerability estimations for elements at risk- a review of concepts and some examples on landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciurean, R. L.; Glade, T.

2012-04-01

Decision under uncertainty is a constant of everyday life and an important component of risk management and governance. Recently, experts have emphasized the importance of quantifying uncertainty in all phases of landslide risk analysis. Due to its multi-dimensional and dynamic nature, (physical) vulnerability is inherently complex and the "degree of loss" estimates imprecise and to some extent even subjective. Uncertainty analysis introduces quantitative modeling approaches that allow for a more explicitly objective output, improving the risk management process as well as enhancing communication between various stakeholders for better risk governance. This study presents a review of concepts for uncertainty analysis in vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides. Different semi-quantitative and quantitative methods are compared based on their feasibility in real-world situations, hazard dependency, process stage in vulnerability assessment (i.e. input data, model, output), and applicability within an integrated landslide hazard and risk framework. The resulted observations will help to identify current gaps and future needs in vulnerability assessment, including estimation of uncertainty propagation, transferability of the methods, development of visualization tools, but also address basic questions like what is uncertainty and how uncertainty can be quantified or treated in a reliable and reproducible way.

Exposure to toxic waste containing high concentrations of hydrogen sulphide illegally dumped in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.

PubMed

Dongo, Kouassi; Tiembré, Issiaka; Koné, Blaise Atioumonou; Zurbrügg, Christian; Odermatt, Peter; Tanner, Marcel; Zinsstag, Jakob; Cissé, Guéladio

2012-09-01

On August 2006, a cargo ship illegally dumped 500 t of toxic waste containing high concentrations of hydrogen sulphide in numerous sites across Abidjan. Thousands of people became ill. Seventeen deaths were associated with toxic waste exposure. This study reports on environmental and health problems associated with the incident. A cross-sectional transect study was conducted in five waste dumping site areas. Of the households, 62.1% (n = 502) were exposed to the effects of the pollutants and 51.1% of the interviewed people (n = 2,368) in these households showed signs of poisoning. Most important symptoms were cough (37.1%), asthenia (33.1%), pruritus (29.9%) and nausea (29.1%). The health effects showed different frequencies in the five waste impact sites. Among the poisoned persons, 21.1% (n = 532) presented symptoms on the survey day (i.e., 4 months after incident). Transect sampling allowed to determine a radius of vulnerability to exposure of up to 3 km from the point of toxic waste disposal. The area of higher vulnerability is influenced by various environmental factors, such as size and severity of pollution site, duration of toxic waste pollution on the impact site and locally climatic conditions. The surveillance of effects on environment and human health is warranted to monitor the development.

Achieving Healthy School Siting and Planning Policies: Understanding Shared Concerns of Environmental Planners, Public Health Professionals, and Educators

PubMed Central

Cohen, Alison

2013-01-01

Policy decisions regarding the quality of the physical school environment—both, school siting and school facility planning policies—are often considered through the lens of environmental planning, public health, or education policy, but rarely through all three. Environmental planners consider environmental justice issues on a local level and/or consider the regional impact of a school. Public health professionals focus on toxic exposures and populations particularly vulnerable to negative health outcomes. Educators and education policymakers emphasize investing in human capital of both students and staff. By understanding these respective angles and combining these efforts around the common goals of achieving adequacy and excellence, we can work towards a regulatory system for school facilities that recognizes children as a uniquely vulnerable population and seeks to create healthier school environments in which children can learn and adults can work. PMID:20359991

Using AQUACROP to model the impacts of future climates on crop production and possible adaptation strategies in Sardinia and Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bird, Neil; Benabdallah, Sihem; Gouda, Nadine; Hummel, Franz; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Meyer, Swen; Soddu, Antonino; Woess-Gallasch, Susanne

2014-05-01

A work package in the FP-7 funded CLIMB Project - Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins Reducing Uncertainty and Quantifying Risk through an Integrated Monitoring and Modeling System had the goal of assessing socioeconomic vulnerability in two super-sites in future climates (2040-2070). The work package had deliverables to describe of agricultural adaptation measures appropriate to each site under future water availability scenarios and assess the risk of income losses due to water shortages in agriculture. The FAO model AQUACROP was used to estimate losses of agricultural productivity and indicate possible adaptation strategies. The presentation will focus on two interesting crops which show extreme vulnerability to expected changes in climate; irrigated lettuce in Sardinia and irrigated tomatoes in Tunisia. Modelling methodology, results and possible adaptation strategies will be presented.

Occurrence and distribution of enteric viruses in shallow ground water and factors affecting well vulnerability to microbiological contamination in Worcester and Wicomico counties, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Banks, William S.L.; Klohe, Cheryl A.; Battigelli, David A.

2001-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Maryland Department of the Environment and the Wisconsin State Laboratory of Hygiene, conducted a study to characterize the occurrence and distribution of viral contamination in small (withdrawing less than 10,000 gallons per day) public water-supply wells screened in the water-table aquifer in the Coastal Plain in Worcester and Wicomico Counties, Maryland.Two hundred seventy-eight well sites were evaluated with regard to simulated ground-water flow paths, land use, natural soils groups, and well characteristics, such as well depth and well age. Flow and transport simulations of the water-table aquifer indicated that wells screened less than about 50 feet below land surface (shallow wells) were most vulnerable to surface contamination, which in some cases could originate from as far as 2,000 feet upgradient of the well. Animal-feeding and agricultural-storage operations were considered among the most likely sources for viral contamination; therefore, sites close to these activities were considered most vulnerable. Soil groups were evaluated with regard to depth to water and moisture-holding capacity. Wells with shallow depths to water or in very sandy soils were considered more vulnerable to contamination than deep wells (greater than 50 feet) and those completed in finer-grained soils. Older wells and wells where coliform bacteria had been detected in the past were classified as highly vulnerable. On the basis of this evaluation, 27 sites considered to be susceptible were sampled.Samples were collected by pumping up to 400 gallons of untreated well water through an electropositive filter. Water concentrates were subjected to cell-culture assay for the detection of culturable viruses and reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction/gene probe assays to detect nonculturable viruses; grab samples were analyzed for somatic and male-specific coliphages, Bacteroides fragilis, Clostridium perfringens, enterococci, Escherichia coli, total coliforms, total oxidized nitrogen, dissolved organic carbon, organic nitrogen, total phosphate, orthophosphate, acid-neutralizing capacity, pH, specific conductance, temperature, and dissolved oxygen.Eleven percent of the samples analyzed (3 of 27) tested positive for either culturable viruses or the presence of viral ribonucleic acid. Approximately 15 percent of the samples (4 of 27) tested positive for one or more bacterial contaminants.

Mapping the groundwater vulnerability for pollution at the pan African scale.

PubMed

Ouedraogo, Issoufou; Defourny, Pierre; Vanclooster, Marnik

2016-02-15

We estimated vulnerability and pollution risk of groundwater at the pan-African scale. We therefore compiled the most recent continental scale information on soil, land use, geology, hydrogeology and climate in a Geographical Information System (GIS) at a resolution of 15 km × 15 km and at the scale of 1:60,000,000. The groundwater vulnerability map was constructed by means of the DRASTIC method. The map reveals that groundwater is highly vulnerable in Central and West Africa, where the watertable is very low. In addition, very low vulnerability is found in the large sedimentary basins of the African deserts where groundwater is situated in very deep aquifers. The groundwater pollution risk map is obtained by overlaying the DRASTIC vulnerability map with land use. The northern, central and western part of the African continent is dominated by high pollution risk classes and this is very strongly related to shallow groundwater systems and the development of agricultural activities. Subsequently, we performed a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the relative importance of each parameter on groundwater vulnerability and pollution risk. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the removal of the impact of vadose zone, the depth of the groundwater, the hydraulic conductivity and the net recharge causes a large variation in the mapped vulnerability and pollution risk. The mapping model was validated using nitrate concentration data of groundwater as a proxy of pollution risk. Pan-African concentration data were inferred from a meta-analysis of literature data. Results shows a good match between nitrate concentration and the groundwater pollution risk classes. The pan African assessment of groundwater vulnerability and pollution risk is expected to be of particular value for water policy and for designing groundwater resources management programs. We expect, however, that this assessment can be strongly improved when better pan African monitoring data related to groundwater pollution will be integrated in the assessment methodology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Programmatic management of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: models from three countries.

PubMed

Furin, J; Bayona, J; Becerra, M; Farmer, P; Golubkov, A; Hurtado, R; Joseph, J K; Keshavjee, S; Ponomarenko, O; Rich, M; Shin, S

2011-10-01

Although multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a major global health problem, there is a gap in programmatic treatment implementation. This study describes MDR-TB treatment models in three countries--Peru, Russia and Lesotho-- using qualitative data collected over a 13-year period. A program analysis is presented for each country focusing on baseline medical care, initial implementation and program evolution. A pattern analysis revealed six overarching themes common to all three programs: 1) importance of baseline assessments, 2) early identification of key collaborators, 3) identification of initial locus of care, 4) minimization of patient-incurred costs, 5) targeted interventions for vulnerable populations and 6) importance of technical assistance and funding. Site commonalities and differences in each of these areas were analyzed. It is recommended that all programs providing MDR-TB treatment address these six areas during program development and implementation.

Electronic Cigarette Marketing Online: a Multi-Site, Multi-Product Comparison.

PubMed

Chu, Kar-Hai; Sidhu, Anupreet K; Valente, Thomas W

2015-01-01

Electronic cigarette awareness and use has been increasing rapidly. E-cigarette brands have utilized social networking sites to promote their products, as the growth of the e-cigarette industry has paralleled that of Web 2.0. These online platforms are cost-effective and have unique technological features and user demographics that can be attractive for selective marketing. The popularity of multiple sites also poses a risk of exposure to social networks where e-cigarette brands might not have a presence. To examine the marketing strategies of leading e-cigarette brands on multiple social networking sites, and to identify how affordances of the digital media are used to their advantage. Secondary analyses include determining if any brands are benefitting from site demographics, and exploring cross-site diffusion of marketing content through multi-site users. We collected data from two e-cigarette brands from four social networking sites over approximately 2.5 years. Content analysis is used to search for themes, population targeting, marketing strategies, and cross-site spread of messages. Twitter appeared to be the most frequently used social networking site for interacting directly with product users. Facebook supported informational broadcasts, such as announcements regarding political legislation. E-cigarette brands also differed in their approaches to their users, from informal conversations to direct product marketing. E-cigarette makers use different strategies to market their product and engage their users. There was no evidence of direct targeting of vulnerable populations, but the affordances of the different sites are exploited to best broadcast context-specific messages. We developed a viable method to study cross-site diffusion, although additional refinement is needed to account for how different types of digital media are used.

Electronic Cigarette Marketing Online: a Multi-Site, Multi-Product Comparison

PubMed Central

Sidhu, Anupreet K; Valente, Thomas W

2015-01-01

Background Electronic cigarette awareness and use has been increasing rapidly. E-cigarette brands have utilized social networking sites to promote their products, as the growth of the e-cigarette industry has paralleled that of Web 2.0. These online platforms are cost-effective and have unique technological features and user demographics that can be attractive for selective marketing. The popularity of multiple sites also poses a risk of exposure to social networks where e-cigarette brands might not have a presence. Objective To examine the marketing strategies of leading e-cigarette brands on multiple social networking sites, and to identify how affordances of the digital media are used to their advantage. Secondary analyses include determining if any brands are benefitting from site demographics, and exploring cross-site diffusion of marketing content through multi-site users. Methods We collected data from two e-cigarette brands from four social networking sites over approximately 2.5 years. Content analysis is used to search for themes, population targeting, marketing strategies, and cross-site spread of messages. Results Twitter appeared to be the most frequently used social networking site for interacting directly with product users. Facebook supported informational broadcasts, such as announcements regarding political legislation. E-cigarette brands also differed in their approaches to their users, from informal conversations to direct product marketing. Conclusions E-cigarette makers use different strategies to market their product and engage their users. There was no evidence of direct targeting of vulnerable populations, but the affordances of the different sites are exploited to best broadcast context-specific messages. We developed a viable method to study cross-site diffusion, although additional refinement is needed to account for how different types of digital media are used. PMID:27227129

Leaching of the organophosphorus nematicide fosthiazate.

PubMed

Karpouzas, Dimitrios G; Pantelelis, Ioannis; Menkissoglu-Spiroudi, Urania; Golia, Evangelia; Tsiropoulos, Nikolas G

2007-07-01

Fosthiazate is an organophosphorus nematicide which was recently included in Annex I of the Directive 91/414/EEC under the clause that it should be used with special care in soils vulnerable to leaching. Thus, the leaching of fosthiazate was investigated in columns packed with three different soils which represented situations of high (site 2), intermediate (site 1) and low (site 3) leaching potential. The recommended dose of fosthiazate was applied at the surface of the soil columns and fosthiazate fate and transport was investigated for the next two months. Fosthiazate concentrations in the leachate collected from the bottom of the columns packed with soil from site 2 exceeded 0.1 microgl(-1) in most cases. This soil was characterized as acidic, indicating longer fosthiazate persistence, with low organic matter content, indicating weak adsorption, thus representing a situation vulnerable to leaching. In contrast, the lowest concentrations of fosthiazate in the leachate were evident in the columns packed with soil from site 3. This soil was characterized as alkaline, indicating faster degradation, with higher organic matter content, indicating stronger adsorption, thus representing a situation not favoring leaching of fosthiazate. The highest concentration of fosthiazate in the leachate from the columns packed with soil from site 2 was 3.44 microgl(-1) compared to 1.17 and 0.16 microgl(-1), which were the corresponding maximum values measured in columns packed with soil from sites 1 and 3, respectively. The results of the current study further suggest that fosthiazate is mobile in soil and can leach under conducive soil conditions like acidic soils with low organic matter content.

Conditional vulnerability of plant diversity to atmospheric nitrogen deposition across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simkin, Samuel M.; Allen, Edith B.; Bowman, William D.; Clark, Christopher M.; Belnap, Jayne; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cade, Brian S.; Collins, Scott L.; Geiser, Linda H.; Gilliam, Frank S.; Jovan, Sarah E.; Pardo, Linda H.; Schulz, Bethany K.; Stevens, Carly J.; Suding, Katharine N.; Throop, Heather L.; Waller, Donald M.

2016-01-01

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition has been shown to decrease plant species richness along regional deposition gradients in Europe and in experimental manipulations. However, the general response of species richness to N deposition across different vegetation types, soil conditions, and climates remains largely unknown even though responses may be contingent on these environmental factors. We assessed the effect of N deposition on herbaceous richness for 15,136 forest, woodland, shrubland, and grassland sites across the continental United States, to address how edaphic and climatic conditions altered vulnerability to this stressor. In our dataset, with N deposition ranging from 1 to 19 kg N⋅ha−1⋅y−1, we found a unimodal relationship; richness increased at low deposition levels and decreased above 8.7 and 13.4 kg N⋅ha−1⋅y−1 in open and closed-canopy vegetation, respectively. N deposition exceeded critical loads for loss of plant species richness in 24% of 15,136 sites examined nationwide. There were negative relationships between species richness and N deposition in 36% of 44 community gradients. Vulnerability to N deposition was consistently higher in more acidic soils whereas the moderating roles of temperature and precipitation varied across scales. We demonstrate here that negative relationships between N deposition and species richness are common, albeit not universal, and that fine-scale processes can moderate vegetation responses to N deposition. Our results highlight the importance of contingent factors when estimating ecosystem vulnerability to N deposition and suggest that N deposition is affecting species richness in forested and nonforested systems across much of the continental United States.

A secure biometrics-based authentication scheme for telecare medicine information systems.

PubMed

Yan, Xiaopeng; Li, Weiheng; Li, Ping; Wang, Jiantao; Hao, Xinhong; Gong, Peng

2013-10-01

The telecare medicine information system (TMIS) allows patients and doctors to access medical services or medical information at remote sites. Therefore, it could bring us very big convenient. To safeguard patients' privacy, authentication schemes for the TMIS attracted wide attention. Recently, Tan proposed an efficient biometrics-based authentication scheme for the TMIS and claimed their scheme could withstand various attacks. However, in this paper, we point out that Tan's scheme is vulnerable to the Denial-of-Service attack. To enhance security, we also propose an improved scheme based on Tan's work. Security and performance analysis shows our scheme not only could overcome weakness in Tan's scheme but also has better performance.

Development of a security vulnerability assessment process for the RAMCAP chemical sector.

PubMed

Moore, David A; Fuller, Brad; Hazzan, Michael; Jones, J William

2007-04-11

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Directorate of Information Analysis & Infrastructure Protection (IAIP), Protective Services Division (PSD), contracted the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Innovative Technologies Institute, LLC (ASME ITI, LLC) to develop guidance on Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP). AcuTech Consulting Group (AcuTech) has been contracted by ASME ITI, LLC, to provide assistance by facilitating the development of sector-specific guidance on vulnerability analysis and management for critical asset protection for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors. This activity involves two key tasks for these three sectors: Development of a screening to supplement DHS understanding of the assets that are important to protect against terrorist attack and to prioritize the activities. Development of a standard security vulnerability analysis (SVA) framework for the analysis of consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats. This project involves the cooperative effort of numerous leading industrial companies, industry trade associations, professional societies, and security and safety consultants representative of those sectors. Since RAMCAP is a voluntary program for ongoing risk management for homeland security, sector coordinating councils are being asked to assist in communicating the goals of the program and in encouraging participation. The RAMCAP project will have a profound and positive impact on all sectors as it is fully developed, rolled-out and implemented. It will help define the facilities and operations of national and regional interest for the threat of terrorism, define standardized methods for analyzing consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats, and describe best security practices of the industry. This paper will describe the results of the security vulnerability analysis process that was developed and field tested for the chemical manufacturing sector. This method was developed through the cooperation of the many organizations and the individuals involved from the chemical sector RAMCAP development activities. The RAMCAP SVA method is intended to provide a common basis for making vulnerability assessments and risk-based decisions for homeland security. Mr. Moore serves as the coordinator for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and LNG sectors for the RAMCAP project and Dr. Jones is the chief technology officer for ASME-ITI, LLC for RAMCAP.

Assessing groundwater vulnerability in the Kinshasa region, DR Congo, using a calibrated DRASTIC model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mfumu Kihumba, Antoine; Vanclooster, Marnik; Ndembo Longo, Jean

2017-02-01

This study assessed the vulnerability of groundwater against pollution in the Kinshasa region, DR Congo, as a support of a groundwater protection program. The parametric vulnerability model (DRASTIC) was modified and calibrated to predict the intrinsic vulnerability as well as the groundwater pollution risk. The method uses groundwater body specific parameters for the calibration of the factor ratings and weightings of the original DRASTIC model. These groundwater specific parameters are inferred from the statistical relation between the original DRASTIC model and observed nitrate pollution for a specific period. In addition, site-specific land use parameters are integrated into the method. The method is fully embedded in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Following these modifications, the correlation coefficient between groundwater pollution risk and observed nitrate concentrations for the 2013-2014 survey improved from r = 0.42, for the original DRASTIC model, to r = 0.61 for the calibrated model. As a way to validate this pollution risk map, observed nitrate concentrations from another survey (2008) are compared to pollution risk indices showing a good degree of coincidence with r = 0.51. The study shows that a calibration of a vulnerability model is recommended when vulnerability maps are used for groundwater resource management and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.

Modelling the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards for river basin management using a GIS-based multicriteria decision approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Wu, Ju-Yu; Hung, Chih-Hsuan

2017-04-01

1. Background Asia-Pacific region is one of the most vulnerable areas of the world to climate-related hazards and extremes due to rapid urbanization and over-development in hazard-prone areas. It is thus increasingly recognized that the management of land use and reduction of hazard risk are inextricably linked. This is especially critical from the perspective of integrated river basin management. A range of studies has targeted existing vulnerability assessments. However, limited attention has been paid to the cumulative effects of multiple vulnerable factors and their dynamics faced by local communities. This study proposes a novel methodology to access the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards, and to examine the relationship between the attraction factors relevant to the general process of urbanization and vulnerability variability with a focus on a river basin management unit. 2. Methods and data The methods applied in this study include three steps. First, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) approach, a Cumulative Vulnerability Assessment Framework (CVAF) is built with a goal to characterize and compare the vulnerability to climate-related hazards within river basin regions based on a composition of multiple indicators. We organize these indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard exposure; (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptive capacity. Second, the CVAF is applied by combining a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique with a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess and map the changing cumulative vulnerability, comparing conditions in 1996 and 2006 in Danshui River Basin, Taiwan. Third, to examine the affecting factors of vulnerability changing, we develop a Vulnerability Changing Model (VCM) using four attraction factors to reflect how the process of urban developments leads to vulnerability changing. The factors are transport networks, land uses, production values of industries, and infrastructures. We then conduct a regression analysis to test the VCM. To illustrate the proposed methodology, the data are collected from the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan as well as the National Land Use Investigation and official census statistics. 3. Results and policy implications Results of CVAF analysis demonstrate heterogeneous patterns of vulnerability in the region, and highlight trends of long-term changes. The vulnerable areas unfold as clustered patterns and spatial analogues across regions, rather than randomly distributed. Highest cumulative vulnerability is concentrated in densely populated and downstream reaches (such as Taipei City) of the Danshui River in both time periods. When examining the VCM, it indicates that upper stream and more remote areas generally show low vulnerability, increases are observed in some areas between 1996 and 2006 due to land use intensification, industrial and infrastructure expansion. These findings suggest that land use planning should consider the socioeconomic progression and infrastructure investment factors that contribute to urban sprawl and address current as well as future urban developments vulnerable to hazard risk transmission. The cumulative vulnerability assessment, mapping methods and modelling presented here can be applied to other climate change and hazard risks to highlight priority areas for further investigation and contribute towards improving river basin management.

Mining Bug Databases for Unidentified Software Vulnerabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dumidu Wijayasekara; Milos Manic; Jason Wright

2012-06-01

Identifying software vulnerabilities is becoming more important as critical and sensitive systems increasingly rely on complex software systems. It has been suggested in previous work that some bugs are only identified as vulnerabilities long after the bug has been made public. These vulnerabilities are known as hidden impact vulnerabilities. This paper discusses the feasibility and necessity to mine common publicly available bug databases for vulnerabilities that are yet to be identified. We present bug database analysis of two well known and frequently used software packages, namely Linux kernel and MySQL. It is shown that for both Linux and MySQL, amore » significant portion of vulnerabilities that were discovered for the time period from January 2006 to April 2011 were hidden impact vulnerabilities. It is also shown that the percentage of hidden impact vulnerabilities has increased in the last two years, for both software packages. We then propose an improved hidden impact vulnerability identification methodology based on text mining bug databases, and conclude by discussing a few potential problems faced by such a classifier.« less

AVQS: Attack Route-Based Vulnerability Quantification Scheme for Smart Grid

PubMed Central

Lim, Hyunwoo; Lee, Seokjun; Shon, Taeshik

2014-01-01

A smart grid is a large, consolidated electrical grid system that includes heterogeneous networks and systems. Based on the data, a smart grid system has a potential security threat in its network connectivity. To solve this problem, we develop and apply a novel scheme to measure the vulnerability in a smart grid domain. Vulnerability quantification can be the first step in security analysis because it can help prioritize the security problems. However, existing vulnerability quantification schemes are not suitable for smart grid because they do not consider network vulnerabilities. We propose a novel attack route-based vulnerability quantification scheme using a network vulnerability score and an end-to-end security score, depending on the specific smart grid network environment to calculate the vulnerability score for a particular attack route. To evaluate the proposed approach, we derive several attack scenarios from the advanced metering infrastructure domain. The experimental results of the proposed approach and the existing common vulnerability scoring system clearly show that we need to consider network connectivity for more optimized vulnerability quantification. PMID:25152923

Inclusion of vulnerable groups in health policies: Regional policies on health priorities in Africa

PubMed Central

Eide, Arne Henning; Amin, Mutamad; MacLachlan, Malcom; Mannan, Hasheem

2013-01-01

Background If access to equitable health care is to be achieved for all, policy documents must mention and address in some detail different needs of groups vulnerable to not accessing such health care. If these needs are not addressed in the policy documents, there is little chance that they will be addressed at the stage of implementation. Objectives This paper reports on an analysis of 11 African Union (AU) policy documents to ascertain the frequency and the extent of mention of 13 core concepts in relation to 12 vulnerable groups, with a specific focus on people with disabilities. Method The paper applied the EquiFrame analytical framework to the 11 AU policy documents. The 11 documents were analysed in terms of how many times a core concept was mentioned and the extent of information on how the core concept should be addressed at the implementation level. Each core concept mention was further analysed in terms of the vulnerable group in referred to. Results The analysis of regional AU policies highlighted the broad nature of the reference made to vulnerable groups, with a lack of detailed specifications of different needs of different groups. This is confirmed in the highest vulnerable group mention being for ‘universal’. The reading of the documents suggests that vulnerable groups are homogeneous in their needs, which is not the case. There is a lack of recognition of different needs of different vulnerable groups in accessing health care. Conclusion The need for more information and knowledge on the needs of all vulnerable groups is evident. The current lack of mention and of any detail on how to address needs of vulnerable groups will significantly impair the access to equitable health care for all. PMID:28729986

Drought-induced xylem cavitation and hydraulic deterioration: risk factors for urban trees under climate change?

PubMed

Savi, Tadeja; Bertuzzi, Stefano; Branca, Salvatore; Tretiach, Mauro; Nardini, Andrea

2015-02-01

Urban trees help towns to cope with climate warming by cooling both air and surfaces. The challenges imposed by the urban environment, with special reference to low water availability due to the presence of extensive pavements, result in high rates of mortality of street trees, that can be increased by climatic extremes. We investigated the water relations and xylem hydraulic safety/efficiency of Quercus ilex trees growing at urban sites with different percentages of surrounding impervious pavements. Seasonal changes of plant water potential and gas exchange, vulnerability to cavitation and embolism level, and morpho-anatomical traits were measured. We found patterns of increasing water stress and vulnerability to drought at increasing percentages of impervious pavement cover, with a consequent reduction in gas exchange rates, decreased safety margins toward embolism development, and increased vulnerability to cavitation, suggesting the occurrence of stress-induced hydraulic deterioration. The amount of impermeable surface and chronic exposure to water stress influence the site-specific risk of drought-induced dieback of urban trees under extreme drought. Besides providing directions for management of green spaces in towns, our data suggest that xylem hydraulics is key to a full understanding of the responses of urban trees to global change. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of HPV vaccination: comparing the general population with socially vulnerable individuals.

PubMed

Han, Kyu-Tae; Kim, Sun Jung; Lee, Seo Yoon; Park, Eun-Cheol

2014-01-01

After the WHO recommended HPV vaccination of the general population in 2009, government support of HPV vaccination programs was increased in many countries. However, this policy was not implemented in Korea due to perceived low cost-effectiveness. Thus, the aim of this study was to analyze the cost-utility of HPV vaccination programs targeted to high risk populations as compared to vaccination programs for the general population. Each study population was set to 100,000 people in a simulation study to determine the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR), then standard prevalence rates, cost, vaccination rates, vaccine efficacy, and the Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs) were applied to the analysis. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed by assuming discounted vaccination cost. In the socially vulnerable population, QALYs gained through HPV vaccination were higher than that of the general population (General population: 1,019, Socially vulnerable population: 5,582). The results of ICUR showed that the cost of HPV vaccination was higher for the general population than the socially vulnerable population. (General population: 52,279,255 KRW, Socially vulnerable population: 9,547,347 KRW). Compared with 24 million KRW/QALYs as the social threshold, vaccination of the general population was not cost-effective. In contrast, vaccination of the socially vulnerable population was strongly cost-effective. The results suggest the importance and necessity of government support of HPV vaccination programs targeted to socially vulnerable populations because a targeted approach is much more cost-effective. The implementation of government support for such vaccination programs is a critical strategy for decreasing the burden of HPV infection in Korea.

Victims of Chronic Dating Violence: How Women's Vulnerabilities Link to Their Decisions to Stay

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Few, April L.; Rosen, Karen H.

2005-01-01

This article describes relational and situational vulnerabilities that emerged from interviews with 28 women (7 Black and 21 White) who were victims of chronic abuse suffered at the hands of male dating partners. Based on a qualitative content analysis, we explore how these vulnerabilities relate to women's decisions to stay in their abusive…

Life at the hyperarid margin: novel bacterial diversity in arid soils of the Atacama Desert, Chile

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neilson, Julia W.; Quade, Jay; Ortiz, Marianyoly; Nelson, William M.; Legatzki, Antje; Tian, Fei; LaComb, Michelle; Betancourt, Julio L.; Wing, Rod A.; Soderlund, Carol A.; Maier, Raina M.

2012-01-01

Nearly half the earth's surface is occupied by dryland ecosystems, regions susceptible to reduced states of biological productivity caused by climate fluctuations. Of these regions, arid zones located at the interface between vegetated semiarid regions and biologically unproductive hyperarid zones are considered most vulnerable. The objective of this study was to conduct a deep diversity analysis of bacterial communities in unvegetated arid soils of the Atacama Desert, to characterize community structure and infer the functional potential of these communities based on observed phylogenetic associations. A 454-pyrotag analysis was conducted of three unvegetated arid sites located at the hyperarid-arid margin. The analysis revealed communities with unique bacterial diversity marked by high abundances of novel Actinobacteria and Chloroflexi and low levels of Acidobacteria and Proteobacteria, phyla that are dominant in many biomes. A 16S rRNA gene library of one site revealed the presence of clones with phylogenetic associations to chemoautotrophic taxa able to obtain energy through oxidation of nitrite, carbon monoxide, iron, or sulfur. Thus, soils at the hyperarid margin were found to harbor a wealth of novel bacteria and to support potentially viable communities with phylogenetic associations to non-phototrophic primary producers and bacteria capable of biogeochemical cycling.

Climate Change Resilience Planning at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.; Johnson, A.

2015-12-01

The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is developing a site sustainability plan for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina in accordance with Executive Order 13693, which charges each DOE agency with "identifying and addressing projected impacts of climate change" and "calculating the potential cost and risk to mission associated with agency operations". The plan will comprise i) projections of climate change, ii) surveys of site managers to estimate the effects of climate change on site operations, and iii) a determination of adaptive actions. Climate change projections for SRS are obtained from multiple sources, including an online repository of downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations of future climate and downscaled GCM simulations produced at SRNL. Taken together, we have projected data for temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind - all variables with a strong influence on site operations. SRNL is working to engage site facility managers and facilitate a "bottom up" approach to climate change resilience planning, where the needs and priorities of stakeholders are addressed throughout the process. We make use of the Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool, an Excel-based program designed to accept as input various climate scenarios ('exposure'), the susceptibility of assets to climate change ('sensitivity'), and the ability of these assets to cope with climate change ('adaptive capacity'). These are combined to produce a series of scores that highlight vulnerabilities. Working with site managers, we have selected the most important assets, estimated their expected response to climate change, and prepared a report highlighting the most endangered facilities. Primary risks include increased energy consumption, decreased water availability, increased forest fire danger, natural resource degradation, and compromised outdoor worker safety in a warmer and more humid climate. Results of this study will aid in driving future management decisions and promoting sustainable practices at SRS.

The Irish famine of 1740-1741: famine vulnerability and "climate migration"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engler, S.; Mauelshagen, F.; Werner, J.; Luterbacher, J.

2013-05-01

The "Great Frost" of 1740 was one of the coldest winters of the eighteenth century and impacted many countries all over Europe. The years 1740-1741 have long been known as a period of general crisis caused by harvest failures, high prices for staple foods, and excess mortality. Vulnerabilities, coping capacities and adaptation processes varied considerably among different countries. This paper investigates the famine of 1740-1741 in Ireland applying a multi-indicator model developed specifically for the integration of an analysis of pre-famine vulnerability, the Famine Vulnerability Analysis Model (FVAM). Our focus is on Ireland, because famine has played a more outstanding role in Irish national history than in any other European country, due to the "Great Famine" of 1845-1852 and its long-term demographic effects. Our analysis shows that Ireland was already particularly vulnerable to famine in the first half of the eighteenth century. During and after the experience of hardship in 1740-1741, many Irish moved within Ireland or left the country entirely. We regard migration as a form of adaptation and argue that Irish migration in 1740-1741 should be considered as a case of climate-induced migration.

Index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models using hydrogeological settings: A critical evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, Prashant, E-mail: prashantkumar@csio.res.in; Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030; Bansod, Baban K.S.

2015-02-15

Groundwater vulnerability maps are useful for decision making in land use planning and water resource management. This paper reviews the various groundwater vulnerability assessment models developed across the world. Each model has been evaluated in terms of its pros and cons and the environmental conditions of its application. The paper further discusses the validation techniques used for the generated vulnerability maps by various models. Implicit challenges associated with the development of the groundwater vulnerability assessment models have also been identified with scientific considerations to the parameter relations and their selections. - Highlights: • Various index-based groundwater vulnerability assessment models havemore » been discussed. • A comparative analysis of the models and its applicability in different hydrogeological settings has been discussed. • Research problems of underlying vulnerability assessment models are also reported in this review paper.« less

Comparison analysis on vulnerability of metro networks based on complex network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jianhua; Wang, Shuliang; Wang, Xiaoyuan

2018-04-01

This paper analyzes the networked characteristics of three metro networks, and two malicious attacks are employed to investigate the vulnerability of metro networks based on connectivity vulnerability and functionality vulnerability. Meanwhile, the networked characteristics and vulnerability of three metro networks are compared with each other. The results show that Shanghai metro network has the largest transport capacity, Beijing metro network has the best local connectivity and Guangzhou metro network has the best global connectivity, moreover Beijing metro network has the best homogeneous degree distribution. Furthermore, we find that metro networks are very vulnerable subjected to malicious attacks, and Guangzhou metro network has the best topological structure and reliability among three metro networks. The results indicate that the proposed methodology is feasible and effective to investigate the vulnerability and to explore better topological structure of metro networks.

Risk-based framework using geographic information systems to identify transportation corridors vulnerable to development.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) is increasingly involved with the land development process in evolving transportation corridors. This process includes consideration of real estate interests, rezoning and permitting approvals, site pl...

Multiple Natural Hazards Assessment and Comparison to Planned Land Use in an Andean Touristic Site within the Riskscape Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Andreas; Jaque Castillo, Edilia

2017-04-01

The Andes of central Chile are a natural environment characterized by multiple natural hazards (mass movements, volcanic hazards, seismic hazards, snow avalanches to name a few). The totality of these hazards, according to the notion of Müller-Mahn et al. an in relation to vulnerable entities, spans a riskscape. Spatial planning should take this riskscape into account in order to ensure a save an resilient regional development. However, as frequently observed in developing or newly developed countries, such precaution measures are only hardly realized. Spatial planing tends to be reactive to private inversion, opportunistic and frequently clientelistic. This results in spatial structures whose future development is vulnerable to natural disasters. The contribution analyses these circumstances within a riskscape in central Chile. Within the VIII. Region, close to the volcanic complex Nevados de Chillan, a touristic development around a Hotel for winter sports is established. However, the place is affected by a multitude of natural hazards. The contribution, on the basis of primary and secondary data, first provides hazard maps for several natural hazards. Secondly, the individual hazard maps are merged to an overall hazard map. This overall hazard map is related to the vulnerable entities to span a riskscape. The vulnerable entities are settlements, but also tourist infrastructures. Then, the contribution compares how a precautions spatial planning could have avoided putting vulnerable entities at risk, which spatial structure - especially regarding tourism - is actually found and which challenges for spatial development do exist. It reveals that the most important tourist infrastructures are found particularly at places, characterized by a high overall hazard. Furthermore, it will show that alternatives at economically equally attractive sites, but with a much smaller overall hazard, would have existed. It concludes by discussing possible reasons for this by considering the Chilean planning system.

A contribution to the selection of tsunami human vulnerability indicators: conclusions from tsunami impacts in Sri Lanka and Thailand (2004), Samoa (2009), Chile (2010) and Japan (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Riancho, P.; Aliaga, B.; Hettiarachchi, S.; González, M.; Medina, R.

2014-12-01

After several tsunami events with disastrous consequences around the world, coastal countries have realized the need to be prepared to minimize human mortality and damage to coastal infrastructures, livelihoods and resources. The international scientific community is striving to develop and validate methodologies for tsunami hazard and vulnerability and risk assessments. The vulnerability of coastal communities is usually assessed through the definition of sets of indicators based on previous literature and/or post-tsunami reports, as well as on the available data for the study site. The aim of this work is to validate in light of past tsunami events the indicators currently proposed by the scientific community to measure human vulnerability, to improve their definition and selection as well as to analyse their validity for different country development profiles. The events analyzed are the 2011 Great Tohoku tsunami, the 2010 Chilean tsunami, the 2009 Samoan tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The results obtained highlight the need for considering both permanent and temporal human exposure, the former requiring some hazard numerical modelling while the latter is related to site-specific livelihoods, cultural traditions and gender roles. The most vulnerable age groups are the elderly adults and the children, the former having much higher mortality rates. Female mortality is not always higher than male and not always related to dependency issues. Higher numbers of disabled people do not always translate into higher numbers of victims. Besides, it is clear that mortality is not only related to the characteristics of the population but also the buildings. A high correlation has been found between the affected buildings and the number of victims, being very high for completely damaged buildings. Distance to the sea, building materials and expected water depths are highly determining factors regarding the type of damage in buildings.

A contribution to the selection of tsunami human vulnerability indicators: conclusions from tsunami impacts in Sri Lanka and Thailand (2004), Samoa (2009), Chile (2010) and Japan (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Riancho, P.; Aliaga, B.; Hettiarachchi, S.; González, M.; Medina, R.

2015-07-01

After several tsunami events with disastrous consequences around the world, coastal countries have realized the need to be prepared to minimize human mortality and damage to coastal infrastructures, livelihoods and resources. The international scientific community is striving to develop and validate methodologies for tsunami hazard and vulnerability and risk assessments. The vulnerability of coastal communities is usually assessed through the definition of sets of indicators based on previous literature and/or post-tsunami reports, as well as on the available data for the study site. The aim of this work is to validate, in light of past tsunami events, the indicators currently proposed by the scientific community to measure human vulnerability, to improve their definition and selection as well as to analyse their validity for different country development profiles. The events analysed are the 2011 Great Tohoku tsunami, the 2010 Chilean tsunami, the 2009 Samoan tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The results obtained highlight the need for considering both permanent and temporal human exposure, the former requiring some hazard numerical modelling, while the latter is related to site-specific livelihoods, cultural traditions and gender roles. The most vulnerable age groups are the elderly and children, the former having much higher mortality rates. Female mortality is not always higher than male mortality and not always related to dependency issues. Higher numbers of disabled people do not always translate into higher numbers of victims. Besides, it is clear that mortality is not only related to the characteristics of the population but also of the buildings. A high correlation has been found between the affected buildings and the number of victims, being very high for completely damaged buildings. Distance to the sea, building materials and expected water depths are important determining factors regarding the type of damage to buildings.

Earthquake hazards to domestic water distribution systems in Salt Lake County, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Highland, Lynn M.

1985-01-01

A magnitude-7. 5 earthquake occurring along the central portion of the Wasatch Fault, Utah, may cause significant damage to Salt Lake County's domestic water system. This system is composed of water treatment plants, aqueducts, distribution mains, and other facilities that are vulnerable to ground shaking, liquefaction, fault movement, and slope failures. Recent investigations into surface faulting, landslide potential, and earthquake intensity provide basic data for evaluating the potential earthquake hazards to water-distribution systems in the event of a large earthquake. Water supply system components may be vulnerable to one or more earthquake-related effects, depending on site geology and topography. Case studies of water-system damage by recent large earthquakes in Utah and in other regions of the United States offer valuable insights in evaluating water system vulnerability to earthquakes.

Identifying Vulnerabilities and Hardening Attack Graphs for Networked Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saha, Sudip; Vullinati, Anil K.; Halappanavar, Mahantesh

We investigate efficient security control methods for protecting against vulnerabilities in networked systems. A large number of interdependent vulnerabilities typically exist in the computing nodes of a cyber-system; as vulnerabilities get exploited, starting from low level ones, they open up the doors to more critical vulnerabilities. These cannot be understood just by a topological analysis of the network, and we use the attack graph abstraction of Dewri et al. to study these problems. In contrast to earlier approaches based on heuristics and evolutionary algorithms, we study rigorous methods for quantifying the inherent vulnerability and hardening cost for the system. Wemore » develop algorithms with provable approximation guarantees, and evaluate them for real and synthetic attack graphs.« less

Linking landscape characteristics to mineral site use by band-tailed pigeons in Western Oregon: Coarse-filter conservation with fine-filter tuning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Overton, C.T.; Schmitz, R.A.; Casazza, Michael L.

2006-01-01

Mineral sites are scarce resources of high ion concentration used heavily by the Pacific Coast subpopulation of band-tailed pigeons. Over 20% of all known mineral sites used by band-tailed pigeons in western Oregon, including all hot springs, have been abandoned. Prior investigations have not analyzed stand or landscape level habitat composition in relation to band-tailed pigeon use of mineral sites. We used logistic regression models to evaluate the influence of habitat types, identified from Gap Analysis Program (GAP) products at two spatial scales, on the odds of mineral site use in Oregon (n = 69 currently used and 20 historically used). Our results indicated that the odds of current use were negatively associated with non-forested terrestrial and private land area around mineral sites. Similarly, the odds of current mineral site use were positively associated with forested and special status (GAP stewardship codes 1 and 2) land area. The most important variable associated with the odds of mineral site use was the amount of non-forested land cover at either spatial scale. Our results demonstrate the utility of meso-scale geographic information designed for regional, coarse-filter approaches to conservation in fine-filter investigation of wildlife-habitat relationships. Adjacent landcover and ownership status explain the pattern of use for known mineral sites in western Oregon. In order for conservation and management activities for band-tailed pigeons to be successful, mineral sites need to be addressed as important and vulnerable resources. Management of band-tailed pigeons should incorporate the potential for forest management activities and land ownership patterns to influence the risk of mineral site abandonment.

Small vulnerable sets determine large network cascades in power grids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Yang; Nishikawa, Takashi; Motter, Adilson E.

The understanding of cascading failures in complex systems has been hindered by the lack of realistic large-scale modeling and analysis that can account for variable system conditions. By using the North American power grid, we identified, quantified, and analyzed the set of network components that are vulnerable to cascading failures under any out of multiple conditions. We show that the vulnerable set consists of a small but topologically central portion of the network and that large cascades are disproportionately more likely to be triggered by initial failures close to this set. These results elucidate aspects of the origins and causesmore » of cascading failures relevant for grid design and operation and demonstrate vulnerability analysis methods that are applicable to a wider class of cascade-prone networks.« less

Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Syud A.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Hertel, Thomas W.

2009-07-01

Extreme climate events could influence poverty by affecting agricultural productivity and raising prices of staple foods that are important to poor households in developing countries. With the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events predicted to change in the future, informed policy design and analysis requires an understanding of which countries and groups are going to be most vulnerable to increasing poverty. Using a novel economic-climate analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of climate volatility for seven socio-economic groups in 16 developing countries. We find that extremes under present climate volatility increase poverty across our developing country sample—particularly in Bangladesh, Mexico, Indonesia, and Africa—with urban wage earners the most vulnerable group. We also find that global warming exacerbates poverty vulnerability in many nations.

Small vulnerable sets determine large network cascades in power grids

DOE PAGES

Yang, Yang; Nishikawa, Takashi; Motter, Adilson E.

2017-11-17

The understanding of cascading failures in complex systems has been hindered by the lack of realistic large-scale modeling and analysis that can account for variable system conditions. By using the North American power grid, we identified, quantified, and analyzed the set of network components that are vulnerable to cascading failures under any out of multiple conditions. We show that the vulnerable set consists of a small but topologically central portion of the network and that large cascades are disproportionately more likely to be triggered by initial failures close to this set. These results elucidate aspects of the origins and causesmore » of cascading failures relevant for grid design and operation and demonstrate vulnerability analysis methods that are applicable to a wider class of cascade-prone networks.« less

Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators: application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathoma-Köhle, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of the physical vulnerability of elements at risk as part of the risk analysis is an essential aspect for the development of strategies and structural measures for risk reduction. Understanding, analysing and, if possible, quantifying physical vulnerability is a prerequisite for designing strategies and adopting tools for its reduction. The most common methods for assessing physical vulnerability are vulnerability matrices, vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators; however, in most of the cases, these methods are used in a conflicting way rather than in combination. The article focuses on two of these methods: vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators. Vulnerability curves express physical vulnerability as a function of the intensity of the process and the degree of loss, considering, in individual cases only, some structural characteristics of the affected buildings. However, a considerable amount of studies argue that vulnerability assessment should focus on the identification of these variables that influence the vulnerability of an element at risk (vulnerability indicators). In this study, an indicator-based methodology (IBM) for mountain hazards including debris flow (Kappes et al., 2012) is applied to a case study for debris flows in South Tyrol, where in the past a vulnerability curve has been developed. The relatively "new" indicator-based method is being scrutinised and recommendations for its improvement are outlined. The comparison of the two methodological approaches and their results is challenging since both methodological approaches deal with vulnerability in a different way. However, it is still possible to highlight their weaknesses and strengths, show clearly that both methodologies are necessary for the assessment of physical vulnerability and provide a preliminary "holistic methodological framework" for physical vulnerability assessment showing how the two approaches may be used in combination in the future.

The contribution of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia to seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Central Asian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parolai, S.; Bindi, D.; Haberland, C. A.; Pittore, M.; Pilz, M.; Rosenau, M.; Schurr, B.; Wieland, M.; Yuan, X.

2012-12-01

Central Asia has one of the world's highest levels of earthquake hazard, owing to its exceptionally high deformation rates. Moreover, vulnerability to natural disasters in general is increasing, due to rising populations and a growing dependence on complex lifelines and technology. Therefore, there is an urgent need to undertake seismic hazard and risk assessment in this region, while at the same time improving upon existing methodologies, including the consideration of temporal variability in the seismic hazard, and in structural and social vulnerability. Over the last few years, the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), in collaboration with local partners, has initiated a number of scientific activities within the framework of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia (GCO-CA). The work is divided into projects with specific concerns: - The installation and maintenance of the Central-Asian Real-time Earthquake MOnitoring Network (CAREMON) and the setup of a permanent wireless mesh network for structural health monitoring in Bishkek. - The TIPAGE and TIPTIMON projects focus on the geodynamics of the Tien-Shan, Pamir and Hindu Kush region, the deepest and most active intra-continental subduction zone in the world. The work covers time scales from millions of years to short-term snapshots based on geophysical measurements of seismotectonic activity and of the physical properties of the crust and upper mantle, as well as their coupling with other surface processes (e.g., landslides). - Existing risk analysis methods assume time-independent earthquake hazard and risk, although temporal changes are likely to occur due to, for example, co- and post-seismic changes in the regional stress field. We therefore aim to develop systematic time-dependent hazard and risk analysis methods in order to undertake the temporal quantification of earthquake activity (PROGRESS). - To improve seismic hazard assessment for better loss estimation, detailed site effects studies are necessary. Temporary seismic networks have been installed in several Central Asian cities (Bishkek and Karakol, Kyrgyzstan; Dushanbe, Tajikistan; Tashkent, Uzbekistan) within the framework of the Earthquake Model Central Asia (EMCA), a regional program of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The empirically estimated site effects have already helped to improve real-time risk scenarios for Bishkek and will be applied to other major cities. - A crucial requirement for disaster risk reduction involves the analysis of the vulnerability of existing building inventories. Whereas traditional approaches are very time- and cost-consuming, and even impossible given the high rate of urbanization in Central Asian capitals, our integrated approach is based on satellite remote sensing and ground-based omni-directional imaging, providing building inventories and thus structural vulnerability over large areas (EMCA, GEM-IDCT). All mentioned activities are carried out within the framework of cooperation between GFZ and regional national institutes, in particular the Central Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences. Altogether, this comprehensive and long-term risk analyses and research program will lead to a better understanding of the coupling of endogene and exogene processes and the identification of their impact on society.

Using the analytical hierarchy process to assess the environmental vulnerabilities of basins in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chang, Chia-Ling; Chao, Yu-Chi

2012-05-01

Every year, Taiwan endures typhoons and earthquakes; these natural hazards often induce landslides and debris flows. Therefore, watershed management strategies must consider the environmental vulnerabilities of local basins. Because many factors affect basin ecosystems, this study applied multiple criteria analysis and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate seven criteria in three phases (geographic phase, hydrologic phase, and societal phase). This study focused on five major basins in Taiwan: the Tan-Shui River Basin, the Ta-Chia River Basin, the Cho-Shui River Basin, the Tseng-Wen River Basin, and the Kao-Ping River Basin. The objectives were a comprehensive examination of the environmental characteristics of these basins and a comprehensive assessment of their environmental vulnerabilities. The results of a survey and AHP analysis showed that landslide area is the most important factor for basin environmental vulnerability. Of all these basins, the Cho-Shui River Basin in central Taiwan has the greatest environmental vulnerability.

Legal bans on pro-suicide web sites: an early retrospective from Australia.

PubMed

Pirkis, Jane; Neal, Luke; Dare, Andrew; Blood, R Warwick; Studdert, David

2009-04-01

There are worldwide concerns that pro-suicide web sites may trigger suicidal behaviors among vulnerable individuals. In 2006, Australia became the first country to criminalize such sites, sparking heated debate. Concerns were expressed that the law casts the criminal net too widely; inappropriately interferes with the autonomy of those who wish to die; and has jurisdictional limitations, with off-shore web sites remaining largely immune. Conversely, proponents point out that the law may limit access to domestic pro-suicide web sites, raise awareness of Internet-related suicide, mobilize community efforts to combat it, and serve as a powerful expression of societal norms about the promotion of suicidal behavior.

Matrix vesicles in the fibrous cap of atherosclerotic plaque: possible contribution to plaque rupture.

PubMed

Bobryshev, Y V; Killingsworth, M C; Lord, R S A; Grabs, A J

2008-10-01

Plaque rupture is the most common type of plaque complication and leads to acute ischaemic events such as myocardial infarction and stroke. Calcification has been suggested as a possible indicator of plaque instability. Although the role of matrix vesicles in the initial stages of arterial calcification has been recognized, no studies have yet been carried out to examine a possible role of matrix vesicles in plaque destabilization. Tissue specimens selected for the present study represented carotid specimens obtained from patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy. Serial frozen cross-sections of the tissue specimens were cut and mounted on glass slides. The thickness of the fibrous cap (FCT) in each advanced atherosclerotic lesion, containing a well developed lipid/necrotic core, was measured at its narrowest sites in sets of serial sections. According to established criteria, atherosclerotic plaque specimens were histologically subdivided into two groups: vulnerable plaques with thin fibrous caps (FCT <100 microm) and presumably stable plaques, in which fibrous caps were thicker than 100 microm. Twenty-four carotid plaques (12 vulnerable and 12 presumably stable plaques) were collected for the present analysis of matrix vesicles in fibrous caps. In order to provide a sufficient number of representative areas from each plaque, laser capture microdissection (LCM) was carried out. The quantification of matrix vesicles in ultrathin sections of vulnerable and stable plaques revealed that the numbers of matrix vesicles were significantly higher in fibrous caps of vulnerable plaques than those in stable plaques (8.908+0.544 versus 6.208+0.467 matrix vesicles per 1.92 microm2 standard area; P= 0.0002). Electron microscopy combined with X-ray elemental microanalysis showed that some matrix vesicles in atherosclerotic plaques were undergoing calcification and were characterized by a high content of calcium and phosphorus. The percentage of calcified matrix vesicles/microcalcifications was significantly higher in fibrous caps in vulnerable plaques compared with that in stable plaques (6.705+/-0.436 versus 5.322+/-0494; P= 0.0474). The findings reinforce a view that the texture of the extracellular matrix in the thinning fibrous cap of atherosclerotic plaque is altered and this might contribute to plaque destabilization.

Comparison of empirical and numerical methods for the assessment of coastal vulnerability to erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kokkinos, Dimitris; Prinos, Panagiotis

2017-04-01

Assessing the vulnerability to erosion is an important step in order to identify the prone areas and propose an adaptation policy to climate change in coastal areas. In this paper two coastal areas at the Northern part of the Aegean Sea are selected to examine their vulnerability to erosion. The first case is Lesbos Island where the most common feature is pocket beaches and the second one is the coast of Thrace composed by long sandy beaches. In both case studies, the same simplified methodology proposed by Mendoza and Jimenez (2009) is used, which links the vulnerability to erosion with morphodynamic parameters such as beach retreat and beach width. The key parameter for the vulnerability assessment is the beach retreat. For its calculation two different approaches are used and compared. The first approach divides the eroded volume with the eroded depth and it is based on an empirical formula, derived for the Greek seas from the CCSEAWAVS project (Kokkinos et al, 2014), which links the eroded volume with JA parameter, a beach erosion predictor proposed by Jimenez (1993). The sediment fall velocity, the beach slope and the wave characteristics are the only necessary parameters to calculate JA. The second approach is based on the results derived from the numerical model Xbeach (Roelvink et al., 2009), which is an open source, state-of the-art, two-dimensional model including the hydrodynamic processes of short and long wave transformation, wave-induced setup, overwash, inundation, as well as the morphodynamic processes of bed load and suspended sediment transport, dune face avalanching, bed update and breaching. The results indicate that the area of Thrace is very prone to erosion at the eastern and western part of the study area, while the Island of Lesbos appears to have very low vulnerability. The application of this methodology with the two different approaches aims to generate useful information about the vulnerability to erosion, to examine the reliability of the empirical approach and to support studies for an adaptation policy to climate change. References: Jiménez, J.A., Sánchez-Arcilla, A., Stive, M.J.F., (1993), "Discussion on prediction of storm/normal beach profiles" Journal of Waterway Port, Coast. & Oc. Eng., 19(4): 466-468. Kokkinos D., Prinos P., Galiatsatou G., Jimenez J.A. (2014), "Estimation of Erosion Potential and Erosion Vulnerability Indices in the study sites" CCSEAWAVS, Report-Deliverable 4.2, THALES research project (In Greek) Mendoza, E.T. and Jiménez, J.A, (2009) "Regional geomorphic vulnerability analysis to storms for Catalan beaches", P. I. Civil Eng-Mar. En., 162(3): 127-135 Roelvink D., Reniers A., Van Dongeren A., De Vries J.T., McCall R., Lescinski J. (2009), "Modelling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier islands", Coast. Eng., 56: 1133-1152

Immunologic Insights on the Membrane Proximal External Region: A Major Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type-1 Vaccine Target

PubMed Central

Molinos-Albert, Luis M.; Clotet, Bonaventura; Blanco, Julià; Carrillo, Jorge

2017-01-01

Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) targeting conserved regions within the human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) envelope glycoprotein (Env) can be generated by the human immune system and their elicitation by vaccination will be a key point to protect against the wide range of viral diversity. The membrane proximal external region (MPER) is a highly conserved region within the Env gp41 subunit, plays a major role in membrane fusion and is targeted by naturally induced bNAbs. Therefore, the MPER is considered as an attractive vaccine target. However, despite many attempts to design MPER-based immunogens, further study is still needed to understand its structural complexity, its amphiphilic feature, and its limited accessibility by steric hindrance. These particular features compromise the development of MPER-specific neutralizing responses during natural infection and limit the number of bNAbs isolated against this region, as compared with other HIV-1 vulnerability sites, and represent additional hurdles for immunogen development. Nevertheless, the analysis of MPER humoral responses elicited during natural infection as well as the MPER bNAbs isolated to date highlight that the human immune system is capable of generating MPER protective antibodies. Here, we discuss the recent advances describing the immunologic and biochemical features that make the MPER a unique HIV-1 vulnerability site, the different strategies to generate MPER-neutralizing antibodies in immunization protocols and point the importance of extending our knowledge toward new MPER epitopes by the isolation of novel monoclonal antibodies. This will be crucial for the redesign of immunogens able to skip non-neutralizing MPER determinants. PMID:28970835

Development and assessment of indices to determine stream fish vulnerability to climate change and habitat alteration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sievert, Nicholas A.; Paukert, Craig P.; Tsang, Yin-Phan; Infante, Dana M.

2016-01-01

Understanding the future impacts of climate and land use change are critical for long-term biodiversity conservation. We developed and compared two indices to assess the vulnerability of stream fish in Missouri, USA based on species environmental tolerances, rarity, range size, dispersal ability and on the average connectivity of the streams occupied by each species. These two indices differed in how environmental tolerance was classified (i.e., vulnerability to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and changes to flow regimes). Environmental tolerance was classified based on measured species responses to habitat alteration, and extremes in stream temperatures and flow conditions for one index, while environmental tolerance for the second index was based on species’ traits. The indices were compared to determine if vulnerability scores differed by index or state listing status. We also evaluated the spatial distribution of species classified as vulnerable to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and change in flow regimes. Vulnerability scores were calculated for all 133 species with the trait association index, while only 101 species were evaluated using the species response index, because 32 species lacked data to analyze for a response. Scores from the trait association index were greater than the species response index. This is likely due to the species response index's inability to evaluate many rare species, which generally had high vulnerability scores for the trait association index. The indices were consistent in classifying vulnerability to habitat alteration, but varied in their classification of vulnerability due to increases in stream temperature and alterations to flow regimes, likely because extremes in current climate may not fully capture future conditions and their influence on stream fish communities. Both indices showed higher mean vulnerability scores for listed species than unlisted species, which provided a coarse measure of validation. Our indices classified species identified as being in need of conservation by the state of Missouri as highly vulnerable. The distribution of vulnerable species in Missouri showed consistent patterns between indices, with the more forest-dominated, groundwater fed streams in the Ozark subregion generally having higher numbers and proportions of vulnerable species per site than subregions that were agriculturally dominated with more overland flow. These results suggest that both indices will identify similar habitats as conservation action targets despite discrepancies in the classification of vulnerable species. Our vulnerability assessment provides a framework that can be refined and used in other regions.

A relative vulnerability estimation of flood disaster using data envelopment analysis in the Dongting Lake region of Hunan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.-H.; Li, N.; Wu, L.-C.; Hu, A.-J.

2013-07-01

The vulnerability to flood disaster is addressed by a number of studies. It is of great importance to analyze the vulnerability of different regions and various periods to enable the government to make policies for distributing relief funds and help the regions to improve their capabilities against disasters, yet a recognized paradigm for such studies seems missing. Vulnerability is defined and evaluated through either physical or economic-ecological perspectives depending on the field of the researcher concerned. The vulnerability, however, is the core of both systems as it entails systematic descriptions of flood severities or disaster management units. The research mentioned often has a development perspective, and in this article we decompose the overall flood system into several factors: disaster driver, disaster environment, disaster bearer, and disaster intensity, and take the interaction mechanism among all factors as an indispensable function. The conditions of flood disaster components are demonstrated with disaster driver risk level, disaster environment stability level and disaster bearer sensitivity, respectively. The flood system vulnerability is expressed as vulnerability = f(risk, stability, sensitivity). Based on the theory, data envelopment analysis method (DEA) is used to detail the relative vulnerability's spatiotemporal variation of a flood disaster system and its components in the Dongting Lake region. The study finds that although a flood disaster system's relative vulnerability is closely associated with its components' conditions, the flood system and its components have a different vulnerability level. The overall vulnerability is not the aggregation of its components' vulnerability. On a spatial scale, zones central and adjacent to Dongting Lake and/or river zones are characterized with very high vulnerability. Zones with low and very low vulnerability are mainly distributed in the periphery of the Dongting Lake region. On a temporal scale, the occurrence of a vibrating flood vulnerability trend is observed. A different picture is displayed with the disaster driver risk level, disaster environment stability level and disaster bearer sensitivity level. The flood relative vulnerability estimation method based on DEA is characteristic of good comparability, which takes the relative efficiency of disaster system input-output into account, and portrays a very diverse but consistent picture with varying time steps. Therefore, among different spatial and time domains, we could compare the disaster situations with what was reflected by the same disaster. Additionally, the method overcomes the subjectivity of a comprehensive flood index caused by using an a priori weighting system, which exists in disaster vulnerability estimation of current disasters.

Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability to Spatially Localized Failures with Applications to Chinese Railway System.

PubMed

Ouyang, Min; Tian, Hui; Wang, Zhenghua; Hong, Liu; Mao, Zijun

2017-01-17

This article studies a general type of initiating events in critical infrastructures, called spatially localized failures (SLFs), which are defined as the failure of a set of infrastructure components distributed in a spatially localized area due to damage sustained, while other components outside the area do not directly fail. These failures can be regarded as a special type of intentional attack, such as bomb or explosive assault, or a generalized modeling of the impact of localized natural hazards on large-scale systems. This article introduces three SLFs models: node centered SLFs, district-based SLFs, and circle-shaped SLFs, and proposes a SLFs-induced vulnerability analysis method from three aspects: identification of critical locations, comparisons of infrastructure vulnerability to random failures, topologically localized failures and SLFs, and quantification of infrastructure information value. The proposed SLFs-induced vulnerability analysis method is finally applied to the Chinese railway system and can be also easily adapted to analyze other critical infrastructures for valuable protection suggestions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

A methodology using GIS, aerial photos and remote sensing for loss estimation and flood vulnerability analysis in the Supersano-Ruffano-Nociglia Graben, southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forte, F.; Strobl, R. O.; Pennetta, L.

2006-07-01

The impact of calamitous meteoric events and their interaction with the geological and geomorphological environment represent a current problem of the Supersano-Ruffano-Nociglia Graben in southern Italy. Indeed, severe floods take place on a frequent basis not only in autumn and winter, but in summer also. These calamities are not only triggered by exceptional events, but are also amplified by peculiar geological and morpho-structural characteristics of the Graben. Flooding often affects vast agricultural areas and consequently, water-scooping machines cannot remove the rainwater. These events cause warnings and emergency states, involving people as well as socio economic goods. This study represents an application of a vanguard technique for loss estimation and flood vulnerability analysis, integrating a geographic information system (GIS) with aerial photos and remote sensing methods. The analysis results clearly show that the Graben area is potentially at greatest flood vulnerability, while along the Horsts the flood vulnerability is lower.

Interdisciplinary modeling and analysis to reduce loss of life from tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, N. J.

2016-12-01

Recent disasters have demonstrated the significant loss of life and community impacts that can occur from tsunamis. Minimizing future losses requires an integrated understanding of the range of potential tsunami threats, how individuals are specifically vulnerable to these threats, what is currently in place to improve their chances of survival, and what risk-reduction efforts could be implemented. This presentation will provide a holistic perspective of USGS research enabled by recent advances in geospatial modeling to assess and communicate population vulnerability to tsunamis and the range of possible interventions to reduce it. Integrated research includes efforts to characterize the magnitude and demography of at-risk individuals in tsunami-hazard zones, their evacuation potential based on landscape conditions, nature-based mitigation to improve evacuation potential, evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas, siting considerations for vertical-evacuation refuges, community implications of multiple evacuation zones, car-based evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis, and projected changes in population exposure to tsunamis over time. Collectively, this interdisciplinary research supports emergency managers in their efforts to implement targeted risk-reduction efforts based on local conditions and needs, instead of generic regional strategies that only focus on hazard attributes.

Mobilising "vulnerability" in the public health response to pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Stephenson, Niamh; Davis, Mark; Flowers, Paul; MacGregor, Casimir; Waller, Emily

2014-02-01

Analysis of public health's growing interest in "vulnerability" has largely focused on health policy, with little interrogation of how vulnerability is being actively appropriated, countered, ignored or reworked by the publics whose health such policy is designed to protect. Once the assemblage of public health is understood as comprised of different forms of expertise and actors, including publics, addressing this gap matters. We examine the use of vulnerability in the specific context of pandemic influenza preparedness. Pandemic preparedness raises some familiar dilemmas for public health governance: how to engage with publics without fuelling social divisions and disruption; and whether to invoke publics as passive recipients of public health advice or to recognise publics as collective agents responding to the threat of pandemic influenza. Thus, we ask how the mobilisation of vulnerability connects with these dilemmas. To examine vulnerability in pandemic preparedness, two forms of qualitative data are analysed: 1) interviews and focus groups with "vulnerable" and "healthy" people (conducted 2011-12) discussing seasonal and pandemic influenza and; 2) international, Australian national and state level pandemic plans (1999-2013). Vulnerability is variously used in plans as a way to identify groups at particular risk of infection because of pre-existing clinical conditions, and as a free-floating social category that could apply to a broad range of people potentially involved in the social disruption a pandemic might entail. Our interview and focus group data indicate that healthy people rework the free-floating extension of vulnerability, and that people designated vulnerable encounter an absence of any collective responsibility for the threat of pandemic influenza. Our analysis suggests that vulnerability's mobilisation in pandemic preparedness limits the connection between public health governance and its publics: here, the openness and unpredictability of people's collective agency is something to be tightly controlled by a government concerned with protecting people from themselves. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Are Sexual and Reproductive Health Policies Designed for All? Vulnerable Groups in Policy Documents of Four European Countries and Their Involvement in Policy Development.

PubMed

Ivanova, Olena; Dræbel, Tania; Tellier, Siri

2015-08-12

Health policies are important instruments for improving population health. However, experience suggests that policies designed for the whole population do not always benefit the most vulnerable. Participation of vulnerable groups in the policy-making process provides an opportunity for them to influence decisions related to their health, and also to exercise their rights. This paper presents the findings from a study that explored how vulnerable groups and principles of human rights are incorporated into national sexual and reproductive health (SRH) policies of 4 selected countries (Spain, Scotland, Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine). It also aimed at discussing the involvement of vulnerable groups in SRH policy development from the perspective of policy-makers. Literature review, health policy analysis and 5 semi-structured interviews with policy-makers were carried out in this study. Content analysis of SRH policies was performed using the EquiFrame analytical framework. The study revealed that vulnerable groups and core principles of human rights are differently addressed in SRH policies within 4 studied countries. The opinions of policy-makers on the importance of mentioning vulnerable groups in policy documents and the way they ought to be mentioned varied, but they agreed that a clear definition of vulnerability, practical examples, and evidences on health status of these groups have to be included. In addition, different approaches to vulnerable group's involvement in policy development were identified during the interviews and the range of obstacles to this process was discussed by respondents. Incorporation of vulnerable groups in the SRH policies and their involvement in policy development were found to be important in addressing SRH of these groups and providing an opportunity for them to advocate for equal access to healthcare and exercise their rights. Future research on this topic should include representatives of vulnerable communities which could help to build a dialogue and present the problem from multiple perspectives. © 2015 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

Are Sexual and Reproductive Health Policies Designed for All? Vulnerable Groups in Policy Documents of Four European Countries and Their Involvement in Policy Development

PubMed Central

Ivanova, Olena; Dræbel, Tania; Tellier, Siri

2015-01-01

Background: Health policies are important instruments for improving population health. However, experience suggests that policies designed for the whole population do not always benefit the most vulnerable. Participation of vulnerable groups in the policy-making process provides an opportunity for them to influence decisions related to their health, and also to exercise their rights. This paper presents the findings from a study that explored how vulnerable groups and principles of human rights are incorporated into national sexual and reproductive health (SRH) policies of 4 selected countries (Spain, Scotland, Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine). It also aimed at discussing the involvement of vulnerable groups in SRH policy development from the perspective of policy-makers. Methods: Literature review, health policy analysis and 5 semi-structured interviews with policy-makers were carried out in this study. Content analysis of SRH policies was performed using the EquiFrame analytical framework. Results: The study revealed that vulnerable groups and core principles of human rights are differently addressed in SRH policies within 4 studied countries. The opinions of policy-makers on the importance of mentioning vulnerable groups in policy documents and the way they ought to be mentioned varied, but they agreed that a clear definition of vulnerability, practical examples, and evidences on health status of these groups have to be included. In addition, different approaches to vulnerable group’s involvement in policy development were identified during the interviews and the range of obstacles to this process was discussed by respondents. Conclusion: Incorporation of vulnerable groups in the SRH policies and their involvement in policy development were found to be important in addressing SRH of these groups and providing an opportunity for them to advocate for equal access to healthcare and exercise their rights. Future research on this topic should include representatives of vulnerable communities which could help to build a dialogue and present the problem from multiple perspectives. PMID:26673176

A neural network based methodology to predict site-specific spectral acceleration values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamatchi, P.; Rajasankar, J.; Ramana, G. V.; Nagpal, A. K.

2010-12-01

A general neural network based methodology that has the potential to replace the computationally-intensive site-specific seismic analysis of structures is proposed in this paper. The basic framework of the methodology consists of a feed forward back propagation neural network algorithm with one hidden layer to represent the seismic potential of a region and soil amplification effects. The methodology is implemented and verified with parameters corresponding to Delhi city in India. For this purpose, strong ground motions are generated at bedrock level for a chosen site in Delhi due to earthquakes considered to originate from the central seismic gap of the Himalayan belt using necessary geological as well as geotechnical data. Surface level ground motions and corresponding site-specific response spectra are obtained by using a one-dimensional equivalent linear wave propagation model. Spectral acceleration values are considered as a target parameter to verify the performance of the methodology. Numerical studies carried out to validate the proposed methodology show that the errors in predicted spectral acceleration values are within acceptable limits for design purposes. The methodology is general in the sense that it can be applied to other seismically vulnerable regions and also can be updated by including more parameters depending on the state-of-the-art in the subject.

A Heat Vulnerability Index and Adaptation Solutions for Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

PubMed

Bradford, Kathryn; Abrahams, Leslie; Hegglin, Miriam; Klima, Kelly

2015-10-06

With increasing evidence of global warming, many cities have focused attention on response plans to address their populations' vulnerabilities. Despite expected increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, the health impacts of such events in urban areas can be minimized with careful policy and economic investments. We focus on Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and ask two questions. First, what are the top factors contributing to heat vulnerability and how do these characteristics manifest geospatially throughout Pittsburgh? Second, assuming the City wishes to deploy additional cooling centers, what placement will optimally address the vulnerability of the at risk populations? We use national census data, ArcGIS geospatial modeling, and statistical analysis to determine a range of heat vulnerability indices and optimal cooling center placement. We find that while different studies use different data and statistical calculations, all methods tested locate additional cooling centers at the confluence of the three rivers (Downtown), the northeast side of Pittsburgh (Shadyside/Highland Park), and the southeast side of Pittsburgh (Squirrel Hill). This suggests that for Pittsburgh, a researcher could apply the same factor analysis procedure to compare data sets for different locations and times; factor analyses for heat vulnerability are more robust than previously thought.

Predicting the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association claim payout of commercial buildings from Hurricane Ike

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. M.; Woods, P. K.; Park, Y. J.; Son, K.

2013-08-01

Following growing public awareness of the danger from hurricanes and tremendous demands for analysis of loss, many researchers have conducted studies to develop hurricane damage analysis methods. Although researchers have identified the significant indicators, there currently is no comprehensive research for identifying the relationship among the vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and economic losses associated with individual buildings. To address this lack of research, this study will identify vulnerabilities and hurricane indicators, develop metrics to measure the influence of economic losses from hurricanes, and visualize the spatial distribution of vulnerability to evaluate overall hurricane damage. This paper has utilized the Geographic Information System to facilitate collecting and managing data, and has combined vulnerability factors to assess the financial losses suffered by Texas coastal counties. A multiple linear regression method has been applied to develop hurricane economic damage predicting models. To reflect the pecuniary loss, insured loss payment was used as the dependent variable to predict the actual financial damage. Geographical vulnerability indicators, built environment vulnerability indicators, and hurricane indicators were all used as independent variables. Accordingly, the models and findings may possibly provide vital references for government agencies, emergency planners, and insurance companies hoping to predict hurricane damage.

A Heat Vulnerability Index and Adaptation Solutions for Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klima, K.; Abrahams, L.; Bradford, K.; Hegglin, M.

2015-12-01

With increasing evidence of global warming, many cities have focused attention on response plans to address their populations' vulnerabilities. Despite expected increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, the health impacts of such events in urban areas can be minimized with careful policy and economic investments. We focus on Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and ask two questions. First, what are the top factors contributing to heat vulnerability and how do these characteristics manifest geospatially throughout Pittsburgh? Second, assuming the City wishes to deploy additional cooling centers, what placement will optimally address the vulnerability of the at risk populations? We use national census data, ArcGIS geospatial modeling, and statistical analysis to determine a range of heat vulnerability indices and optimal cooling center placement. We find that while different studies use different data and statistical calculations, all methods tested locate additional cooling centers at the confluence of the three rivers (Downtown), the northeast side of Pittsburgh (Shadyside/ Highland Park), and the southeast side of Pittsburgh (Squirrel Hill). This suggests that for Pittsburgh, a researcher could apply the same factor analysis procedure to compare datasets for different locations and times; factor analyses for heat vulnerability are more robust than previously thought.

Probabilistic seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of stone masonry structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abo El Ezz, Ahmad

Earthquakes represent major natural hazards that regularly impact the built environment in seismic prone areas worldwide and cause considerable social and economic losses. The high losses incurred following the past destructive earthquakes promoted the need for assessment of the seismic vulnerability and risk of the existing buildings. Many historic buildings in the old urban centers in Eastern Canada such as Old Quebec City are built of stone masonry and represent un-measurable architectural and cultural heritage. These buildings were built to resist gravity loads only and generally offer poor resistance to lateral seismic loads. Seismic vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first necessary step in developing seismic retrofitting and pre-disaster mitigation plans. The objective of this study is to develop a set of probability-based analytical tools for efficient seismic vulnerability and uncertainty analysis of stone masonry buildings. A simplified probabilistic analytical methodology for vulnerability modelling of stone masonry building with systematic treatment of uncertainties throughout the modelling process is developed in the first part of this study. Building capacity curves are developed using a simplified mechanical model. A displacement based procedure is used to develop damage state fragility functions in terms of spectral displacement response based on drift thresholds of stone masonry walls. A simplified probabilistic seismic demand analysis is proposed to capture the combined uncertainty in capacity and demand on fragility functions. In the second part, a robust analytical procedure for the development of seismic hazard compatible fragility and vulnerability functions is proposed. The results are given by sets of seismic hazard compatible vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent intensity measure (e.g. spectral acceleration) that can be used for seismic risk analysis. The procedure is very efficient for conducting rapid vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings. With modification of input structural parameters, it can be adapted and applied to any other building class. A sensitivity analysis of the seismic vulnerability modelling is conducted to quantify the uncertainties associated with each of the input parameters. The proposed methodology was validated for a scenario-based seismic risk assessment of existing buildings in Old Quebec City. The procedure for hazard compatible vulnerability modelling was used to develop seismic fragility functions in terms of spectral acceleration representative of the inventoried buildings. A total of 1220 buildings were considered. The assessment was performed for a scenario event of magnitude 6.2 at distance 15km with a probability of exceedance of 2% in 50 years. The study showed that most of the expected damage is concentrated in the old brick and stone masonry buildings.

Assessment of oil slick hazard and risk at vulnerable coastal sites.

PubMed

Melaku Canu, Donata; Solidoro, Cosimo; Bandelj, Vinko; Quattrocchi, Giovanni; Sorgente, Roberto; Olita, Antonio; Fazioli, Leopoldo; Cucco, Andrea

2015-05-15

This work gives an assessment of the hazard faced by Sicily coasts regarding potential offshore surface oil spill events and provides a risk assessment for Sites of Community Importance (SCI) and Special Protection Areas (SPA). A lagrangian module, coupled with a high resolution finite element three dimensional hydrodynamic model, was used to track the ensemble of a large number of surface trajectories followed by particles released over 6 selected areas located inside the Sicily Channel. The analysis was carried out under multiple scenarios of meteorological conditions. Oil evaporation, oil weathering, and shore stranding are also considered. Seasonal hazard maps for different stranding times and seasonal risk maps were then produced for the whole Sicilian coastline. The results highlight that depending on the meteo-marine conditions, particles can reach different areas of the Sicily coast, including its northern side, and illustrate how impacts can be greatly reduced through prompt implementation of mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Relationship between Grandiose and Vulnerable (Hypersensitive) Narcissism

PubMed Central

Jauk, Emanuel; Weigle, Elena; Lehmann, Konrad; Benedek, Mathias; Neubauer, Aljoscha C.

2017-01-01

Narcissistic grandiosity is characterized by overt expressions of feelings of superiority and entitlement, while narcissistic vulnerability reflects hypersensitivity and introversive self-absorbedness. Clinical evidence suggests that grandiosity is accompanied by vulnerable aspects, pointing to a common foundation. Subclinical personality research, however, views grandiose and vulnerable narcissism as independent traits. Grandiose narcissism displays substantial correlation with extraversion, while vulnerable narcissism correlates highly with introversion. We investigated if (1) controlling for intro-/extraversion might reveal a “common core” of grandiose and vulnerable narcissism, and if (2) the correlation between both aspects might be higher at higher levels of narcissism. Latent variable structural equation modeling and segmented regression analysis confirmed these hypotheses in a large non-clinical sample (N = 1,006). Interindividual differences in intro-/extraversion mask the common core of grandiose and vulnerable narcissism. The association between both aspects increases at high levels (upper 10%) of grandiose narcissism, which suggests a possible transition to clinically relevant (pathological) narcissism. PMID:28955288

Statistics of software vulnerability detection in certification testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barabanov, A. V.; Markov, A. S.; Tsirlov, V. L.

2018-05-01

The paper discusses practical aspects of introduction of the methods to detect software vulnerability in the day-to-day activities of the accredited testing laboratory. It presents the approval results of the vulnerability detection methods as part of the study of the open source software and the software that is a test object of the certification tests under information security requirements, including software for communication networks. Results of the study showing the allocation of identified vulnerabilities by types of attacks, country of origin, programming languages used in the development, methods for detecting vulnerability, etc. are given. The experience of foreign information security certification systems related to the detection of certified software vulnerabilities is analyzed. The main conclusion based on the study is the need to implement practices for developing secure software in the development life cycle processes. The conclusions and recommendations for the testing laboratories on the implementation of the vulnerability analysis methods are laid down.

An assessment of groundwater potential and vulnerability in the Upper Manyame Sub-Catchment of Zimbabwe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misi, Alfred; Gumindoga, Webster; Hoko, Zvikomborero

2018-06-01

Severe depletion and pollution of groundwater resources are of rising concern in the Upper Manyame Sub-Catchment (UMSC); Zimbabwe's most urbanised sub-catchment. Despite groundwater playing a pivotal role in the provision of potable water in the sub-catchment, it is under serious threat from anthropogenic stressors which include sewage effluents and leachates from landfills, among others. Inadequate scientific knowledge pertaining to the spatio-temporal variability of groundwater storage and vulnerability in the UMSC is further compromising its sustainability. Therefore, comprehensive assessments of UMSC's Groundwater Potential (GP) and vulnerability are crucial for its effective management. This study assessed GP and vulnerability in the UMSC using Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing techniques. Groundwater conditioning factors: geology, slope, land-use, drainage density, topographic index, altitude, recharge and rainfall were used to develop GP zones. Validation of the GP map was done by correlating estimated GP with historical borehole yields. An assessment of groundwater vulnerability was done at micro-catchment level (Marimba) using the GOD model; a three parameter Index Overlay Model. Marimba is the most urbanised and has the second highest borehole density. It also exhibits similar landuse characteristics as the UMSC. Furthermore, groundwater quality in Marimba was assessed from 15 sampling sites. Fifteen drinking water parameters were analysed based on the standard methods for Water and Wastewater Examination. The potability of groundwater was then assessed by comparing the measured water quality parameters with the Standards Association of Zimbabwe (SAZ) drinking water standards and/or WHO guidelines for drinking water. Repeated Measures ANOVA and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were used to assess the spatio-temporal variations in groundwater quality and to identify key parameters, respectively. About 72% (2725.9 km2) of the UMSC was found to be of moderate GP, while 19% and 9% accounted for high and low GP, respectively. Marimba vulnerability status was dominantly moderate (77.3%). Parameters: EC, pH, coliforms, TDS, total hardness, Fe, NH4+ and turbidity exceeded SAZ and/or WHO drinking water limits on most sampling sites with DO, total and faecal coliforms showing significant variations (p < 0.05). Four Principal Components representing 84% of the cumulative variance were extracted; with PC1, PC2, PC3 and PC4 contributing 38%, 19.1%, 14.3% and 12.85%, respectively. PC1 was characterized by pH, TDS, EC and total hardness. PC2's variance was associated with elevated levels of Cl-, Zn and Cu. PC3 had high loadings of total and faecal coliforms, Fl- and turbidity while PC4 was characterized by high loadings of Pb, Fe, ammonia and turbidity. The variation in the nature of the parameters across PCs explains the complexity of pollutants within the micro-catchment. PC2 and PC4 were largely characterized by metallic compounds, suggesting pollution from mineral dissolution into the aquifers e.g. from industrial areas and dumpsites. PC3 indicate the contribution of domestic waste e.g. faecal waste from waste pipe leakages and poorly constructed pit latrines. The findings of this study are useful decision-making tools on groundwater utilisation and groundwater protection.

Coping with seismic vulnerability: small manufacturing firms in western Athens.

PubMed

Sapountzaki, Kalliopi

2005-06-01

This paper attempts to contribute to international discourse on the responsibility of macro structures (economic and political) and private agencies for the production and distribution of vulnerability. It does so by focusing on an individual economic entity, small manufacturing firms (SMFs), in a specific location, western Athens, Greece. By evaluating the losses that SMFs sustained in the earthquake of 7 September 1999, the paper points to variations in vulnerability levels among such firms and highlights the 'sources' of vulnerability they confront. Furthermore, the SMF recovery cycle is systematically monitored in parallel with relevant public policies and state reactions to private recovery methods. The analysis illustrates processes that externalise recovery costs, alter the relationship between physical and socio-economic vulnerability and shift the vulnerability load from macro structures to individual agencies or vice versa. It is based on two methodological approaches: the division of vulnerability into three constituent components (exposure, resistance and resilience); and the conceptual split between producers and carriers of vulnerability.

[Vulnerability assessment of eco-environment in Yimeng mountainous area of Shandong Province based on SRP conceptual model].

PubMed

Liu, Zheng-jia; Yu, Xing-xiu; Li, Lei; Huang, Mei

2011-08-01

Based on the ecological sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) conceptual model, and selecting 13 indices including landscape diversity index, soil erosion, and elevation, etc. , the vulnerability of the eco-environment in Yimeng mountainous area of Shandong Province was assessed under the support of GIS and by using principal component analysis and hierarchy analytical method. According to the eco-environmental vulnerability index (EVI) values, the eco-environment vulnerability of study area was classified into 5 levels, i.e., slight (<1.8), light (1.8-2.8), moderate (2.8-3.5), heavy (3.5-4.0), and extreme vulnerability (>4.0). In the study area, moderately vulnerable area occupied 43.3% of the total, while the slightly, lightly, heavily, and extremely vulnerable areas occupied 6.1%, 33.8%, 15.9%, and 0.9%, respectively. The heavily and extremely vulnerable areas mainly located in the topographically complicated hilly area or the hill-plain ecotone with frequent human activities.

Vulnerability analysis in terms of food insecurity and poverty using GIS and remote sensing technology applied to Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahriar, Pervez M.; Ramachandran, Mahadevan; Mutuwatte, Lal

2003-03-01

It is becoming increasingly recognized that computer methods such as models and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can be valuable tools for analyzing a geographical area in terms of it's hazards vulnerability, Vulnerability is an important aspect of households' experience of poverty. The measurement and analysis of poverty, inequality and vulnerability are crucial for cognitive purposes (to know what the situation is), for analytical purposes (to understand the factors determining this situation), for policy making purposes (to design interventions best adapted to the issues), and for monitoring and evaluation purposes (to assess whether current policies are effective, and whether the situation is changing). Here vulnerability defined as the probability or risk today of being in poverty - or falling deeper into poverty - in the future. Vulnerability is a key dimension of well being since it affects individuals' behavior (in terms of investment, production patterns, coping strategies) and their perception of their own situation. This study has been conducted with the joint collaboration of World Food Programme (WFP) and International Water Management Institute (IWMI) in Sri Lanka for identifying regions and population which are food insecure, for analyzing the reasons for vulnerability to food insecurity in order to provide decision-makers with information to identify possible sectors of intervention and for identifying where and for whom food aid can be best utilized in Sri Lanka. This new approach integrates GIS and Remote sensing with other statistical packages to allow consideration of more spatial/physical parameters like accessibility to economic resources, particularly land and the assets of the built environment, creating employment, and attracting investment in order to improve the quality and quantity of goods and services for the analysis which leads the analysis to represent the real scenario. For this study a detailed topographic data are being used along with MODIS EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index)

Isotope tracing of Hg pollution from artisanal small scale gold mining in an aquatic ecosystem of Amapá, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adler Miserendino, R.; Silbergeld, E. K.; Guimarães, J. D.; Ghosh, S.; Bergquist, B. A.

2010-12-01

Artisinal small scale gold mining (ASGM) is a central economic activity throughout the developing world. It is both a poverty driven and poverty alleviating process; however, ASGM leads to extensive pollution of waterways through the use of Hg to extract gold from deposits. There have been many studies conducted in the Amazon showing elevated levels of Hg in fish and sediment downstream of ASGM sites; however, the debate continues about the contribution of Hg from ASGM versus other potential sources of Hg. In this study, we investigate whether Hg stable isotope analysis can be used to trace mercury pollution from an ASGM site through an aquatic ecosystem in Amapá, Brazil. We measured the Hg isotopic composition of sediment cores from two lakes, only one of which was heavily impacted by the use of elemental Hg in ASGM, as well as from grab samples at the AGSM site and upstream and downstream from the AGSM site along the river which connects the polluted lake to the ASGM site. Hg from all samples were trapped via combustion using the Leeman Labs Hydra-C mercury analyzer and analyzed for both mass-independent and mass-dependent signatures using cold vapor multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (CV-MC-ICP-MS). Detectable variations in the Hg isotopic signatures were apparent across our field sites, suggesting stable isotopic analysis has great potential to trace contamination pathways in waterways. Preliminary data demonstrate Hg from the ASGM site has unique isotopic signatures that are seen downstream. However, the impacted lake sediments do not have the mining signature despite having three times more Hg than the non-impacted lake. Based on this data, it may be possible to trace Hg from ASGM and assess whether it is impacting local ecosystems and food webs. Hair and soil samples will also be discussed. This demonstration is essential for the broader application of these tools for understanding and applying Hg isotopic analysis in other contexts. This information may also be useful to help reduce Hg exposure of highly vulnerable populations exposed to Hg from ASGM through these aquatic networks in Amapá, Brazil.

Investigating drought vulnerability using stable water isotopes and tritium in a montane system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thaw, Melissa; Visser, Ate; Deinhart, Amanda; Bibby, Richard; Everhart, Anthony; Sharp, Mike; Conklin, Martha

2017-04-01

We combined measurements of water stable isotopes (d18O and d2H) with measurements of tritium (3H) to track water from precipitation through the subsurface and vegetation. Our study examined drought vulnerability in terms of vegetation water sources and subsurface storage in two montane sites, seasonally, using stable isotopes and tritium. Relative proportions of evapotranspiration sources were determined using two-tracer (d18O and 3H), three component mixing models. The two sites, located in the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory, California, USA, are Mediterranean in climate, straddling the rain-snow transition zone where the upper elevation site receives most of its precipitation as winter snow. Over the study period, summer 2015 followed four years of severe snow drought; summer 2016 followed a slightly below average winter. The lower elevation site experienced severe drought-induced tree mortality over this time. Preliminary results show severe snow drought conditions and summer precipitation affected the proportions of source water used by vegetation due to the ability of vegetation to change sources when new water became available. Both stable isotopes and tritium reflect seasonal shifts in vegetation water sources, as well as species vulnerability and tolerance to drought. Xylem water sampled from Abies concolor (white fir) and Arctostaphylos patula (manzanita) responded the most quickly to changes in available water sources compared to Pinus jeffreyi (Jeffrey pine) and Calocedrus decurrens (incense cedar). Abies concolor and Arctostaphylos patula responded more dramatically to summer soil evaporation by accessing summer rain and deep water sources more quickly. Abies concolor also responded more dramatically to changes in snowpack during winter. During severe drought conditions, Arctostaphylos's ability to tap into a wide range of water sources coincided with drought tolerance (100% survival rate), while mortality for Pinus ponderosa and Calocedrus decurrens exceeded 50% and 70%, respectively. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-717437

Community-Involved Learning to Expand Possibilities for Vulnerable Children: A Critical Communicative, Sen's Capability, and Action Research Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyung Hi

2014-01-01

This research, based on a case study of vulnerable children in Korea, used a mixed methods transformative approach to explore strategies to support and help disadvantaged children. The methodological approach includes three phases: a mixed methods contextual analysis, a qualitative dominant analysis based on Sen's capability approach and critical…

DARKDROID: Exposing the Dark Side of Android Marketplaces

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

Moreover, our approaches can detect apps containing both intentional and unintentional vulnerabilities, such as unsafe code loading mechanisms and...Security, Static Analysis, Dynamic Analysis, Malware Detection , Vulnerability Scanning 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT UU 18...applications in a DoD context. ................... 1 1.2.2 Develop sophisticated whole-system static analyses to detect malicious Android applications

Knowledge-Base Semantic Gap Analysis for the Vulnerability Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Raymond; Seki, Keisuke; Sakamoto, Ryusuke; Hisada, Masayuki

Web security became an alert in internet computing. To cope with ever-rising security complexity, semantic analysis is proposed to fill-in the gap that the current approaches fail to commit. Conventional methods limit their focus to the physical source codes instead of the abstraction of semantics. It bypasses new types of vulnerability and causes tremendous business loss.

STRESSED SEBATES: A TRAIT-BASED EVALUATION OF CLIMATE RISKS TO ROCKFISHES OF THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC USING THE COASTAL BIOGEOGRAPHIC RISK ANALYSIS TOOL (CBRAT)

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework is implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the ...

Stressed Sebastes: A Trait-Based Evaluation of Climate Risks to Rockfishes of the Northeastern Pacific Using the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT)

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework was implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the...

A study of the landslide potential along the mountain road using environmental indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, C. Y.

2014-12-01

Utilization of slope land in recent years is rapid as a result of the dense population and limit of land resources in Taiwan. Therefore, mountain road plays an essential role for the necessity of human life. However, landslide disaster resulting in road failure occurred frequently in Taiwan on the slope land due to earthquake and typhoon. Previous studies found that the extreme rainfall coupled with the property of fragile geology could cause landslide. Nevertheless, the landslide occurrence might be affected by the drainage of the road side ditches. Taiwan Highway No.21 in Chi-Shan watershed and the forest roads located in Xiao-Lin Village, which failure during the hit of Typhoon Morakot in 2009, were selected for exploring the potential of vulnerable to landslides. Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) and Road Curvature (RC) were extracted along the road to indicate the potential sites which are vulnerable to slope failure. The surface runoff diverted by the road side ditches could spoil the sites with high RC due to the straight movement characteristics of the diverted runoff and cause the downslope collapse. The sites with higher mean value and lower standard deviation of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from the SPOT imagery taken in dry and/or rainy seasons could be implied as the vegetation stands showing highly buffer effects in environmental stress due to having deeper soil layer, and are hardly interfered by the drought. The stands located in such sites once collapsed are often resulting in huge volumes of debris. Drainage Density (DD) index could be applied as the degrees of geologic fragile in the slope land. A road across the sites with higher mean value and lower standard deviation of NDVI and/or higher DD should be paid more attention because of having highly vulnerable to deep seated landslide. This study is focusing on extracting and analyzing the environmental indices such as TWI, RC, NDVI and DD for exploring the slope stability along the mountain road. The results could be used as the references of related authorities for understanding the potential landslides along a road.

Natural and environmental vulnerability analysis through remote sensing and GIS techniques: a case study of Indigirka River basin, Eastern Siberia, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boori, Mukesh S.; Choudhary, Komal; Kupriyanov, Alexander; Sugimoto, Atsuko; Evers, Mariele

2016-10-01

The aim of this research work is to understand natural and environmental vulnerability situation and its cause such as intensity, distribution and socio-economic effect in the Indigirka River basin, Eastern Siberia, Russia. This paper identifies, assess and classify natural and environmental vulnerability using landscape pattern from multidisciplinary approach, based on remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques. A model was developed by following thematic layers: land use/cover, vegetation, wetland, geology, geomorphology and soil in ArcGIS 10.2 software. According to numerical results vulnerability classified into five levels: low, sensible, moderate, high and extreme vulnerability by mean of cluster principal. Results are shows that in natural vulnerability maximum area covered by moderate (29.84%) and sensible (38.61%) vulnerability and environmental vulnerability concentrated by moderate (49.30%) vulnerability. So study area has at medial level vulnerability. The results found that the methodology applied was effective enough in the understanding of the current conservation circumstances of the river basin in relation to their environment with the help of remote sensing and GIS. This study is helpful for decision making for eco-environmental recovering and rebuilding as well as predicting the future development.

A Preliminary Tsunami vulnerability analysis for Bakirkoy district in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tufekci, Duygu; Lutfi Suzen, M.; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Zaytsev, Andrey

2016-04-01

Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis has major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Vulnerability assessment of coastal areas under extreme events has major importance for preparedness and development of mitigation strategies. The Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquakes as well as associated tsunamis. There are variety of coastal facilities such as ports, small craft harbors, and terminals for maritime transportation, water front roads and business centers mainly at North Coast of Marmara Sea in megacity Istanbul. A detailed vulnerability analysis for Yenikapi region and a detailed resilience analysis for Haydarpasa port in Istanbul have been studied in previously by Cankaya et al., (2015) and Aytore et al., (2015) in SATREPS project. In this study, the methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack given in Cankaya et al., (2015) is modified and applied to Bakirkoy district of Istanbul. Bakirkoy district is located at western part of Istanbul and faces to the North Coast of Marmara Sea from 28.77oE to 28.89oE. High resolution spatial dataset of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed. The bathymetry and topography database and the spatial dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the district are collated and utilized for tsunami numerical modeling and following vulnerability analysis. The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability assessment parameters in the district according to vulnerability and resilience are defined; and scored by implementation of a GIS based TVA with appropriate MCDA methods. The risk level is computed using tsunami intensity (level of flow depth from simulations) and TVA results at every location in Bakirkoy district. The preliminary results are presented and discussed. Acknowledgements: Partial support by Japan-Turkey Joint Research Project by JICA on earthquakes and tsunamis in Marmara Region in (JICA SATREPS - MarDiM Project), 603839 ASTARTE Project of EU, UDAP-C-12-14 project of AFAD, Turkey, 108Y227, 113M556, 213M534 projects of TUBITAK Turkey, RAPSODI (CONCERT_Dis-021) of CONCERT-Japan Joint Call and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality are acknowledged.

Gemitis : an integrated and participative risk reduction strategy for the sustainable development of cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masure, P.

2003-04-01

The GEMITIS method has been implemented since 1995 into a global and integrated Risk Reduction Strategy for improving the seismic risk-assessment effectiveness in urban areas, including the generation of crisis scenarios and mid- to long term- seismic impact assessment. GEMITIS required us to provide more precise definitions of notions in common use by natural-hazard specialists, such as elements at risk and vulnerability. Until then, only the physical and human elements had been considered, and analysis of their vulnerability referred to their fragility in the face of aggression by nature. We have completed this approach by also characterizing the social and cultural vulnerability of a city and its inhabitants, and, with a wider scope, the functional vulnerability of the "urban system". This functional vulnerability depends upon the relations between the system elements (weak links in chains, functional relays, and defense systems) and upon the city's relations with the outside world (interdependence). Though well developed in methods for evaluating industrial risk (fault-tree analysis, event-tree analysis, multiple defense barriers, etc.), this aspect had until now been ignored by the "hard-science" specialists working on natural hazards. Based on the implementation of an Urban System Exposure methodology, we were able to identify specific human, institutional, or functional vulnerability factors for each urban system, which until had been very little discussed by risk-analysis and civil-protection specialists. In addition, we have defined the new concept of "main stakes" of the urban system, ranked by order of social value (or collective utility). Obviously, vital or strategic issues must be better resistant or protected against natural hazards than issues of secondary importance. The ranking of exposed elements of a city in terms of "main stakes" provides a very useful guide for adapting vulnerability studies and for orienting preventive actions. For this, GEMITIS is based on a systemic approach of the city and on value analysis of exposed elements. It facilitates a collective expertise for the definition of a preventive action plan based on the participation of the main urban actors (crisis preparedness, construction, land-use, etc.).

Protocol vulnerability detection based on network traffic analysis and binary reverse engineering.

PubMed

Wen, Shameng; Meng, Qingkun; Feng, Chao; Tang, Chaojing

2017-01-01

Network protocol vulnerability detection plays an important role in many domains, including protocol security analysis, application security, and network intrusion detection. In this study, by analyzing the general fuzzing method of network protocols, we propose a novel approach that combines network traffic analysis with the binary reverse engineering method. For network traffic analysis, the block-based protocol description language is introduced to construct test scripts, while the binary reverse engineering method employs the genetic algorithm with a fitness function designed to focus on code coverage. This combination leads to a substantial improvement in fuzz testing for network protocols. We build a prototype system and use it to test several real-world network protocol implementations. The experimental results show that the proposed approach detects vulnerabilities more efficiently and effectively than general fuzzing methods such as SPIKE.

Use of a ground-water flow model with particle tracking to evaluate ground-water vulnerability, Clark County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snyder, D.T.; Wilkinson, J.M.; Orzol, L.L.

1996-01-01

A ground-water flow model was used in conjunction with particle tracking to evaluate ground-water vulnerability in Clark County, Washington. Using the particle-tracking program, particles were placed in every cell of the flow model (about 60,000 particles) and tracked backwards in time and space upgradient along flow paths to their recharge points. A new computer program was developed that interfaces the results from a particle-tracking program with a geographic information system (GIS). The GIS was used to display and analyze the particle-tracking results. Ground-water vulnerability was evaluated by selecting parts of the ground-water flow system and combining the results with ancillary information stored in the GIS to determine recharge areas, characteristics of recharge areas, downgradient impact of land use at recharge areas, and age of ground water. Maps of the recharge areas for each hydrogeologic unit illustrate the presence of local, intermediate, or regional ground-water flow systems and emphasize the three-dimensional nature of the ground-water flow system in Clark County. Maps of the recharge points for each hydrogeologic unit were overlaid with maps depicting aquifer sensitivity as determined by DRASTIC (a measure of the pollution potential of ground water, based on the intrinsic characteristics of the near-surface unsaturated and saturated zones) and recharge from on-site waste-disposal systems. A large number of recharge areas were identified, particularly in southern Clark County, that have a high aquifer sensitivity, coincide with areas of recharge from on-site waste-disposal systems, or both. Using the GIS, the characteristics of the recharge areas were related to the downgradient parts of the ground-water system that will eventually receive flow that has recharged through these areas. The aquifer sensitivity, as indicated by DRASTIC, of the recharge areas for downgradient parts of the flow system was mapped for each hydrogeologic unit. A number of public-supply wells in Clark County may be receiving a component of water that recharged in areas that are more conducive to contaminant entry. The aquifer sensitivity maps illustrate a critical deficiency in the DRASTIC methodology: the failure to account for the dynamics of the ground-water flow system. DRASTIC indices calculated for a particular location thus do not necessarily reflect the conditions of the ground-water resources at the recharge areas to that particular location. Each hydrogeologic unit was also mapped to highlight those areas that will eventually receive flow from recharge areas with on-site waste-disposal systems. Most public-supply wells in southern Clark County may eventually receive a component of water that was recharged from on-site waste-disposal systems.Traveltimes from particle tracking were used to estimate the minimum and maximum age of ground water within each model-grid cell. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)-age dating of ground water from 51 wells was used to calibrate effective porosity values used for the particle- tracking program by comparison of ground-water ages determined through the use of the CFC-age dating with those calculated by the particle- tracking program. There was a 76 percent agreement in predicting the presence of modern water in the 51 wells as determined using CFCs and calculated by the particle-tracking program. Maps showing the age of ground water were prepared for all the hydrogeologic units. Areas with the youngest ground-water ages are expected to be at greatest risk for contamination from anthropogenic sources. Comparison of these maps with maps of public- supply wells in Clark County indicates that most of these wells may withdraw ground water that is, in part, less than 100 years old, and in many instances less than 10 years old. Results of the analysis showed that a single particle-tracking analysis simulating advective transport can be used to evaluate ground-water vulnerability for any part of a ground-wate

Research Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of eco-environmental vulnerability in the Xianshui River basin based on GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Kun; Bai, Lin; Li, Xiao Ju; Wang, Xiao

2018-05-01

The Xianshui River basin is an important ecological barrier and water conservation area of Qinghai-Tibet plateau. To master the spatial and temporal differentiation of ecological environment is beneficial to the realization of the protection of regional ecological environment and the development of restoration measures. In this paper, the evaluation index system of ecological environment vulnerability was constructed from topography, climate, soil, land use and social economy. In this study, GIS and information entropy theory are combined to complete the analysis of spatial and temporal variation of vulnerability of ecological environment vulnerability in 2000-2015 years, and the main results are as follows: The ecological vulnerability of the watershed is characterized by the obvious vertical distribution, which is characterized by the gradual increase of the vulnerability of the south to the north. The evaluation results were classified as potential, micro, mild, moderate and severe, with the proportion of each grade being Micro > mild > potential > moderate > severity. The proportion of light and below accounts for more than 80% of the whole area, and the whole basin is at a medium vulnerable level. The change of overall trend indicates that the overall ecological environment of the basin has improved obviously in 15 years. The driving force factor analysis shows that the national environmental protection and restoration project is playing a significant role and plays a major driving role in the obvious improvement of the ecological environment in the basin area. However, there are still a few parts of the region that are deteriorating. This is mainly due to the special natural environment and over exploitation of hydropower resources.

Human vulnerability in volcanic environments: the case of Furnas, São Miguel, Azores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibben, Christopher; Chester, David K.

1999-09-01

The need to examine the vulnerability of people to natural hazards, in addition to the long-established requirement to study extreme events of nature, is being increasingly recognised within disaster research. Following a discussion of the nature of human vulnerability, we propose a framework for its analysis within the context of volcanic activity and we exemplify our approach by a detailed study of Furnas, a village located at the centre of a volcano with the same name on the island of São Miguel in the Azores. The methods used included in-depth interviews with permanent residents ( n=50), analysis of census records and an examination of the socio-economic history of the town. The vulnerability of an individual to volcanic hazards involves a complex interaction of elements which, in addition to the usual factors taken into account in programmes of hazard reduction (e.g., the nature of the physical threat, location and economic situation), also comprises his or her social context and a number of physiological and psychological considerations. It is argued, further, that both generally and in the case of Furnas, the root causes of vulnerability lie in the history and development of society. Individual decision making is fundamental but takes place within and cannot be separated from this social context. Vulnerability analysis allows the identification of points where intervention may be successful in reducing the likelihood of suffering in a society. It avoids the problem of people's unexpected reactions to invention leading to a changing or even increasing level of vulnerability, by studying society rather than just one aspect of volcanic hazard in isolation.

Use of modeling to identify vulnerabilities to human error in laparoscopy.

PubMed

Funk, Kenneth H; Bauer, James D; Doolen, Toni L; Telasha, David; Nicolalde, R Javier; Reeber, Miriam; Yodpijit, Nantakrit; Long, Myra

2010-01-01

This article describes an exercise to investigate the utility of modeling and human factors analysis in understanding surgical processes and their vulnerabilities to medical error. A formal method to identify error vulnerabilities was developed and applied to a test case of Veress needle insertion during closed laparoscopy. A team of 2 surgeons, a medical assistant, and 3 engineers used hierarchical task analysis and Integrated DEFinition language 0 (IDEF0) modeling to create rich models of the processes used in initial port creation. Using terminology from a standardized human performance database, detailed task descriptions were written for 4 tasks executed in the process of inserting the Veress needle. Key terms from the descriptions were used to extract from the database generic errors that could occur. Task descriptions with potential errors were translated back into surgical terminology. Referring to the process models and task descriptions, the team used a modified failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to consider each potential error for its probability of occurrence, its consequences if it should occur and be undetected, and its probability of detection. The resulting likely and consequential errors were prioritized for intervention. A literature-based validation study confirmed the significance of the top error vulnerabilities identified using the method. Ongoing work includes design and evaluation of procedures to correct the identified vulnerabilities and improvements to the modeling and vulnerability identification methods. Copyright 2010 AAGL. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating aquatic invertebrate vulnerability to insecticides based on intrinsic sensitivity, biological traits, and toxic mode of action.

PubMed

Rico, Andreu; Van den Brink, Paul J

2015-08-01

In the present study, the authors evaluated the vulnerability of aquatic invertebrates to insecticides based on their intrinsic sensitivity and their population-level recovery potential. The relative sensitivity of invertebrates to 5 different classes of insecticides was calculated at the genus, family, and order levels using the acute toxicity data available in the US Environmental Protection Agency ECOTOX database. Biological trait information was linked to the calculated relative sensitivity to evaluate correlations between traits and sensitivity and to calculate a vulnerability index, which combines intrinsic sensitivity and traits describing the recovery potential of populations partially exposed to insecticides (e.g., voltinism, flying strength, occurrence in drift). The analysis shows that the relative sensitivity of arthropods depends on the insecticide mode of action. Traits such as degree of sclerotization, size, and respiration type showed good correlation to sensitivity and can be used to make predictions for invertebrate taxa without a priori sensitivity knowledge. The vulnerability analysis revealed that some of the Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa were vulnerable to all insecticide classes and indicated that particular gastropod and bivalve species were potentially vulnerable. Microcrustaceans (e.g., daphnids, copepods) showed low potential vulnerability, particularly in lentic ecosystems. The methods described in the present study can be used for the selection of focal species to be included as part of ecological scenarios and higher tier risk assessments. © 2015 SETAC.

Dietary restriction of rodents decreases aging rate without affecting initial mortality rate -- a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Simons, Mirre J P; Koch, Wouter; Verhulst, Simon

2013-06-01

Dietary restriction (DR) extends lifespan in multiple species from various taxa. This effect can arise via two distinct but not mutually exclusive ways: a change in aging rate and/or vulnerability to the aging process (i.e. initial mortality rate). When DR affects vulnerability, this lowers mortality instantly, whereas a change in aging rate will gradually lower mortality risk over time. Unraveling how DR extends lifespan is of interest because it may guide toward understanding the mechanism(s) mediating lifespan extension and also has practical implications for the application of DR. We reanalyzed published survival data from 82 pairs of survival curves from DR experiments in rats and mice by fitting Gompertz and also Gompertz-Makeham models. The addition of the Makeham parameter has been reported to improve the estimation of Gompertz parameters. Both models separate initial mortality rate (vulnerability) from an age-dependent increase in mortality (aging rate). We subjected the obtained Gompertz parameters to a meta-analysis. We find that DR reduced aging rate without affecting vulnerability. The latter contrasts with the conclusion of a recent analysis of a largely overlapping data set, and we show how the earlier finding is due to a statistical artifact. Our analysis indicates that the biology underlying the life-extending effect of DR in rodents likely involves attenuated accumulation of damage, which contrasts with the acute effect of DR on mortality reported for Drosophila. Moreover, our findings show that the often-reported correlation between aging rate and vulnerability does not constrain changing aging rate without affecting vulnerability simultaneously. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and the Anatomical Society.

Advanced Fault Diagnosis Methods in Molecular Networks

PubMed Central

Habibi, Iman; Emamian, Effat S.; Abdi, Ali

2014-01-01

Analysis of the failure of cell signaling networks is an important topic in systems biology and has applications in target discovery and drug development. In this paper, some advanced methods for fault diagnosis in signaling networks are developed and then applied to a caspase network and an SHP2 network. The goal is to understand how, and to what extent, the dysfunction of molecules in a network contributes to the failure of the entire network. Network dysfunction (failure) is defined as failure to produce the expected outputs in response to the input signals. Vulnerability level of a molecule is defined as the probability of the network failure, when the molecule is dysfunctional. In this study, a method to calculate the vulnerability level of single molecules for different combinations of input signals is developed. Furthermore, a more complex yet biologically meaningful method for calculating the multi-fault vulnerability levels is suggested, in which two or more molecules are simultaneously dysfunctional. Finally, a method is developed for fault diagnosis of networks based on a ternary logic model, which considers three activity levels for a molecule instead of the previously published binary logic model, and provides equations for the vulnerabilities of molecules in a ternary framework. Multi-fault analysis shows that the pairs of molecules with high vulnerability typically include a highly vulnerable molecule identified by the single fault analysis. The ternary fault analysis for the caspase network shows that predictions obtained using the more complex ternary model are about the same as the predictions of the simpler binary approach. This study suggests that by increasing the number of activity levels the complexity of the model grows; however, the predictive power of the ternary model does not appear to be increased proportionally. PMID:25290670

Climate Change and Civil Violence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.

2009-05-01

The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore provides an opportunity for targeted proactive measures to mitigate certain classes of future civil violence events.

Integrating Social impacts on Health and Health-Care Systems in Systemic Seismic Vulnerability Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunz-Plapp, T.; Khazai, B.; Daniell, J. E.

2012-04-01

This paper presents a new method for modeling health impacts caused by earthquake damage which allows for integrating key social impacts on individual health and health-care systems and for implementing these impacts in quantitative systemic seismic vulnerability analysis. In current earthquake casualty estimation models, demand on health-care systems is estimated by quantifying the number of fatalities and severity of injuries based on empirical data correlating building damage with casualties. The expected number of injured people (sorted by priorities of emergency treatment) is combined together with post-earthquake reduction of functionality of health-care facilities such as hospitals to estimate the impact on healthcare systems. The aim here is to extend these models by developing a combined engineering and social science approach. Although social vulnerability is recognized as a key component for the consequences of disasters, social vulnerability as such, is seldom linked to common formal and quantitative seismic loss estimates of injured people which provide direct impact on emergency health care services. Yet, there is a consensus that factors which affect vulnerability and post-earthquake health of at-risk populations include demographic characteristics such as age, education, occupation and employment and that these factors can aggravate health impacts further. Similarly, there are different social influences on the performance of health care systems after an earthquake both on an individual as well as on an institutional level. To link social impacts of health and health-care services to a systemic seismic vulnerability analysis, a conceptual model of social impacts of earthquakes on health and the health care systems has been developed. We identified and tested appropriate social indicators for individual health impacts and for health care impacts based on literature research, using available European statistical data. The results will be used to develop a socio-physical model of systemic seismic vulnerability that enhances the further understanding of societal seismic risk by taking into account social vulnerability impacts for health and health-care system, shelter, and transportation.

A new approach for computing a flood vulnerability index using cluster analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Paulo; Mourato, Sandra; Moreira, Madalena; Pereira, Luísa

2016-08-01

A Flood Vulnerability Index (FloodVI) was developed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a new aggregation method based on Cluster Analysis (CA). PCA simplifies a large number of variables into a few uncorrelated factors representing the social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. CA groups areas that have the same characteristics in terms of vulnerability into vulnerability classes. The grouping of the areas determines their classification contrary to other aggregation methods in which the areas' classification determines their grouping. While other aggregation methods distribute the areas into classes, in an artificial manner, by imposing a certain probability for an area to belong to a certain class, as determined by the assumption that the aggregation measure used is normally distributed, CA does not constrain the distribution of the areas by the classes. FloodVI was designed at the neighbourhood level and was applied to the Portuguese municipality of Vila Nova de Gaia where several flood events have taken place in the recent past. The FloodVI sensitivity was assessed using three different aggregation methods: the sum of component scores, the first component score and the weighted sum of component scores. The results highlight the sensitivity of the FloodVI to different aggregation methods. Both sum of component scores and weighted sum of component scores have shown similar results. The first component score aggregation method classifies almost all areas as having medium vulnerability and finally the results obtained using the CA show a distinct differentiation of the vulnerability where hot spots can be clearly identified. The information provided by records of previous flood events corroborate the results obtained with CA, because the inundated areas with greater damages are those that are identified as high and very high vulnerability areas by CA. This supports the fact that CA provides a reliable FloodVI.

Response of Living Shorelines to Wave Energy and Sea Level rise: Short-term Resilience and Long-term Vulnerability in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Currin, C.; Davis, J.

2017-12-01

A decade of research and monitoring of Living Shoreline sites in North Carolina identifies both resilient and vulnerable features of this approach to estuarine shoreline stabilization. We used a wave energy model to calculate representative wave energy along 1500 miles of estuarine shoreline, and observed a linear, negative relationship between wind-wave energy and the width of fringing salt marshes. Proximity to navigation channels (boat wakes) further reduced fringing marsh width. These results provide guidance for Living Shoreline design alternatives. Surface elevation tables (SETs) deployed at the lower edge of both natural fringing marshes and `Living Shoreline' marsh-sill sites demonstrated that while natural marshes were losing surface elevation at an average rate of 6 mm y-1, marsh surface elevation at Living Shoreline sites increased at an average of 3 mm y-1. Marsh vegetation at the lower edge of natural sites exhibited a decline in biomass, while Living Shoreline sites exhibited an increase in upper marsh species and an extension of lower marsh into previous mudflat habitat. These changes provide Living Shoreline (marsh-sill) sites with added resilience to sea level rise, though decreased inundation alters the delivery of other ecosystem services (fish habitat, nutrient cycling). North Carolina lagoonal estuaries have low suspended sediment supply and low topography, and modeling predicts that landward transgression is the primary means by which salt marsh acreage can be maintained under moderate to high sea level rise scenarios. In this region, bank erosion can be important source of sediment to wetland habitats. Further, the association of built infrastructure with Living Shoreline sites portends a future scenario of coastal squeeze, as marsh migration landward will be inhibited.

Recovery of severely compacted soils in the Mojave Desert, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, R.H.

2002-01-01

Often as a result of large-scale military maneuvers in the past, many soils in the Mojave Desert are highly vulnerable to soil compaction, particularly when wet. Previous studies indicate that natural recovery of severely compacted desert soils is extremely slow, and some researchers have suggested that subsurface compaction may not recover. Poorly sorted soils, particularly those with a loamy sand texture, are most vulnerable to soil compaction, and these soils are the most common in alluvial fans of the Mojave Desert. Recovery of compacted soil is expected to vary as a function of precipitation amounts, wetting-and-drying cycles, freeze-thaw cycles, and bioturbation, particularly root growth. Compaction recovery, as estimated using penetration depth and bulk density, was measured at 19 sites with 32 site-time combinations, including the former World War II Army sites of Camps Ibis, Granite, Iron Mountain, Clipper, and Essex. Although compaction at these sites was caused by a wide variety of forces, ranging from human trampling to tank traffic, the data do not allow segregation of differences in recovery rates for different compaction forces. The recovery rate appears to be logarithmic, with the highest rate of change occurring in the first few decades following abandonment. Some higher-elevation sites have completely recovered from soil compaction after 70 years. Using a linear model of recovery, the full recovery time ranges from 92 to 100 years; using a logarithmic model, which asymptotically approaches full recovery, the time required for 85% recovery ranges from 105-124 years.

Study of groundwater vulnerability to pollution using the DRASTIC method coupled with a geographic information system (GIS): application to groundwater Beni Amir, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knouz, Najat; Boudhar, Abdelghani; Bachaoui, El Mostafa

2016-04-01

Fresh water is the condition of all life on Earth for its vital role in the survival of living beings and in the social, economic and technological development. The Groundwater, as the surface water, is increasingly threatened by agricultural and industrial pollution. In this respect, the groundwater vulnerability assessment to pollution is a very valuable tool for resource protection, management of its quality and uses it in a sustainable way. The main objective of this study is the evaluation of groundwater vulnerability to pollution of the study area, Beni Amir, located in the first irrigated perimeter of Morocco, Tadla, using the DRASTIC method (depth to water, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, Topography, impact of Vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity), and assessing the impact of each parameter on the DRASTIC vulnerability index by a sensitivity analysis. This study also highlights the role of geographic information systems (GIS) in assessing vulnerability. The Vulnerability index is calculated as the sum of product of ratings and weights assigned to each of the parameter DRASTIC. The results revealed four vulnerability classes, 7% of the study area has a high vulnerability, 31% are moderately vulnerable, 57% have a low vulnerability and 5% are of very low vulnerability.

Genetic k-Means Clustering Approach for Mapping Human Vulnerability to Chemical Hazards in the Industrialized City: A Case Study of Shanghai, China

PubMed Central

Shi, Weifang; Zeng, Weihua

2013-01-01

Reducing human vulnerability to chemical hazards in the industrialized city is a matter of great urgency. Vulnerability mapping is an alternative approach for providing vulnerability-reducing interventions in a region. This study presents a method for mapping human vulnerability to chemical hazards by using clustering analysis for effective vulnerability reduction. Taking the city of Shanghai as the study area, we measure human exposure to chemical hazards by using the proximity model with additionally considering the toxicity of hazardous substances, and capture the sensitivity and coping capacity with corresponding indicators. We perform an improved k-means clustering approach on the basis of genetic algorithm by using a 500 m × 500 m geographical grid as basic spatial unit. The sum of squared errors and silhouette coefficient are combined to measure the quality of clustering and to determine the optimal clustering number. Clustering result reveals a set of six typical human vulnerability patterns that show distinct vulnerability dimension combinations. The vulnerability mapping of the study area reflects cluster-specific vulnerability characteristics and their spatial distribution. Finally, we suggest specific points that can provide new insights in rationally allocating the limited funds for the vulnerability reduction of each cluster. PMID:23787337

A socioeconomic profile of vulnerable land to desertification in Italy.

PubMed

Salvati, Luca

2014-01-01

Climate changes, soil vulnerability, loss in biodiversity, and growing human pressure are threatening Mediterranean-type ecosystems which are increasingly considered as a desertification hotspot. In this region, land vulnerability to desertification strongly depends on the interplay between natural and anthropogenic factors. The present study proposes a multivariate exploratory analysis of the relationship between the spatial distribution of land vulnerability to desertification and the socioeconomic contexts found in three geographical divisions of Italy (north, center and south) based on statistical indicators. A total of 111 indicators describing different themes (demography, human settlements, labor market and human capital, rural development, income and wealth) were used to discriminate vulnerable from non-vulnerable areas. The resulting socioeconomic profile of vulnerable areas in northern and southern Italy diverged significantly, the importance of demographic and economic indicators being higher in southern Italy than in northern Italy. On the contrary, human settlement indicators were found more important to discriminate vulnerable and non-vulnerable areas in northern Italy, suggesting a role for peri-urbanization in shaping the future vulnerable areas. An in-depth knowledge of the socioeconomic characteristics of vulnerable land may contribute to scenarios' modeling and the development of more effective policies to combat desertification. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Site specific wave parameters for Texas coastal bridges : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

There are about 20 coastal bridges located in hurricane evacuation routes in the State of Texas that are : vulnerable to hurricane surge and wave action. Damage to these bridges could hamper emergency response : and other services, and also cause tre...

[Fractographic analysis of clinically failed anterior all ceramic crowns].

PubMed

DU, Qian; Zhou, Min-bo; Zhang, Xin-ping; Zhao, Ke

2012-04-01

To identify the site of crack initiation and propagation path of clinically failed all ceramic crowns by fractographic analysis. Three clinically failed anterior IPS Empress II crowns and two anterior In-Ceram alumina crowns were retrieved. Fracture surfaces were examined using both optical stereo and scanning electron microscopy. Fractographic theory and fracture mechanics principles were applied to disclose the damage characteristics and fracture mode. All the crowns failed by cohesive failure within the veneer on the labial surface. Critical crack originated at the incisal contact area and propagated gingivally. Porosity was found within the veneer because of slurry preparation and the sintering of veneer powder. Cohesive failure within the veneer is the main failure mode of all ceramic crown. Veneer becomes vulnerable when flaws are present. To reduce the chances of chipping, multi-point occlusal contacts are recommended, and layering and sintering technique of veneering layer should also be improved.

Respondent-driven sampling for an adolescent health study in vulnerable urban settings: a multi-country study.

PubMed

Decker, Michele R; Marshall, Beth Dail; Emerson, Mark; Kalamar, Amanda; Covarrubias, Laura; Astone, Nan; Wang, Ziliang; Gao, Ersheng; Mashimbye, Lawrence; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead; Acharya, Rajib; Olumide, Adesola; Ojengbede, Oladosu; Blum, Robert W; Sonenstein, Freya L

2014-12-01

The global adolescent population is larger than ever before and is rapidly urbanizing. Global surveillance systems to monitor youth health typically use household- and school-based recruitment methods. These systems risk not reaching the most marginalized youth made vulnerable by conditions of migration, civil conflict, and other forms of individual and structural vulnerability. We describe the methodology of the Well-Being of Adolescents in Vulnerable Environments survey, which used respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to recruit male and female youth aged 15-19 years and living in economically distressed urban settings in Baltimore, MD; Johannesburg, South Africa; Ibadan, Nigeria; New Delhi, India; and Shanghai, China (migrant youth only) for a cross-sectional study. We describe a shared recruitment and survey administration protocol across the five sites, present recruitment parameters, and illustrate challenges and necessary adaptations for use of RDS with youth in disadvantaged urban settings. We describe the reach of RDS into populations of youth who may be missed by traditional household- and school-based sampling. Across all sites, an estimated 9.6% were unstably housed; among those enrolled in school, absenteeism was pervasive with 29% having missed over 6 days of school in the past month. Overall findings confirm the feasibility, efficiency, and utility of RDS in quickly reaching diverse samples of youth, including those both in and out of school and those unstably housed, and provide direction for optimizing RDS methods with this population. In our rapidly urbanizing global landscape with an unprecedented youth population, RDS may serve as a valuable tool in complementing existing household- and school-based methods for health-related surveillance that can guide policy. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Respondent-driven sampling for an adolescent health study in vulnerable urban settings: a multi-country study

PubMed Central

Decker, Michele R.; Marshall, Beth; Emerson, Mark; Kalamar, Amanda; Covarrubias, Laura; Astone, Nan; Wang, Ziliang; Gao, Ersheng; Mashimbye, Lawrence; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead; Acharya, Rajib; Olumide, Adesola; Ojengbede, Oladosu; Blum, Robert

2015-01-01

The global adolescent population is larger than ever before and is rapidly urbanizing. Global surveillance systems to monitor youth health typically use household- and school-based recruitment methods. These systems risk not reaching the most marginalized youth made vulnerable by conditions of migration, civil conflict and other forms of individual and structural vulnerability. We describe the methodology of the Well Being of Adolescents in Vulnerable Environments (WAVE) survey, which used respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to recruit male and female youth aged 15 to 19 years and living in economically distressed urban settings in Baltimore, USA, Johannesburg, South Africa, Ibadan, Nigeria, Delhi, India and Shanghai, China (migrant youth only) for a cross-sectional study. We describe a shared recruitment and survey administration protocol across the five sites, present recruitment parameters, and illustrate challenges and necessary adaptations for use of RDS with youth in disadvantaged urban settings. We describe the reach of RDS into populations of youth who may be missed by traditional householdbased and school-based sampling. Across all sites, an estimated 9.6% were unstably housed; among those enrolled in school, absenteeism was pervasive with 29% having missed over 6 days of school in the past month. Overall findings confirm the feasibility, efficiency and utility of RDS in quickly reaching diverse samples of youth, including those both in and out of school and those unstably housed, and provide direction for optimizing RDS methods with this population. In our rapidly urbanizing global landscape with an unprecedented youth population, RDS may serve as a valuable tool in complementing existing household- and school-based methods for health-related surveillance that can guide policy. PMID:25454005

Assessing vulnerability to drought: identifying underlying factors across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia

2015-04-01

Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with data from the European Drought Impact Report Inventory. For specific hotpots vulnerability factors are presented also through spider diagrams in order to allow policy and decision makers to identify underlying sources of vulnerability in the European context. This assessment offers an overall picture at a European level that strives to contribute to enhance the understanding of drought vulnerability across Europe.

Structural factors that increase HIV/STI vulnerability among indigenous people in the Peruvian amazon.

PubMed

Orellana, E Roberto; Alva, Isaac E; Cárcamo, Cesar P; García, Patricia J

2013-09-01

We examined structural factors-social, political, economic, and environmental-that increase vulnerability to HIV among indigenous people in the Peruvian Amazon. Indigenous adults belonging to 12 different ethnic groups were purposively recruited in four Amazonian river ports and 16 indigenous villages. Qualitative data revealed a complex set of structural factors that give rise to environments of risk where health is constantly challenged. Ferryboats that cross Amazonian rivers are settings where unprotected sex-including transactional sex between passengers and boat crew and commercial sex work-often take place. Population mobility and mixing also occurs in settings like the river docks, mining sites, and other resource extraction camps, where heavy drinking and unprotected sex work are common. Multilevel, combination prevention strategies that integrate empirically based interventions with indigenous knowledge are urgently needed, not only to reduce vulnerability to HIV transmission, but also to eliminate the structural determinants of indigenous people's health.

Structural Factors That Increase HIV/STI Vulnerability Among Indigenous People in the Peruvian Amazon

PubMed Central

Orellana, E. Roberto; Alva, Isaac E.; Cárcamo, Cesar P.; García, Patricia J.

2015-01-01

We examined structural factors—social, political, economic, and environmental—that increase vulnerability to HIV among indigenous people in the Peruvian Amazon. Indigenous adults belonging to 12 different ethnic groups were purposively recruited in four Amazonian river ports and 16 indigenous villages. Qualitative data revealed a complex set of structural factors that give rise to environments of risk where health is constantly challenged. Ferryboats that cross Amazonian rivers are settings where unprotected sex—including transactional sex between passengers and boat crew and commercial sex work—often take place. Population mobility and mixing also occurs in settings like the river docks, mining sites, and other resource extraction camps, where heavy drinking and unprotected sex work are common. Multilevel, combination prevention strategies that integrate empirically based interventions with indigenous knowledge are urgently needed, not only to reduce vulnerability to HIV transmission, but also to eliminate the structural determinants of indigenous people’s health. PMID:23925407

Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

2016-04-01

Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as an important element in management and decision-making as problems in today's world are complex and require knowledge from many different domains and disciplines. Participation is also said to be a process of collective learning that changes the way people think and act which is a relevant point in forming appropriate region-specific climate adaptation strategies. The scenarios are based on an analysis of data on recent states and trends in major local sector developments concerning absolute and relative employment and value creation as well as on distinct socio-demographic developments in the region. Categories discussed in the scenario workshop cover inter alia institutions and governance, demographics, production and demand, markets, value-chains and trade, scientific and technological innovations, education and health. The derived stakeholder-based socio-economic scenarios were, in a second step, matched with the Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) in order to frame the locally produced scenarios with global narratives. Both strains were, in a third step, combined and backed-up by scientific literature in order to build the local socio-economic scenarios that served as background information in the analysis of risks, vulnerability and appropriate adaptation measures in the case-study region.

Vulnerability of global food production to extreme climatic events.

PubMed

Yeni, F; Alpas, H

2017-06-01

It is known that the frequency, intensity or duration of the extreme climatic events have been changing substantially. The ultimate goal of this study was to identify current vulnerabilities of global primary food production against extreme climatic events, and to discuss potential entry points for adaptation planning by means of an explorative vulnerability analysis. Outcomes of this analysis were demonstrated as a composite index where 118 country performances in maintaining safety of food production were compared and ranked against climate change. In order to better interpret the results, cluster analysis technique was used as a tool to group the countries based on their vulnerability index (VI) scores. Results suggested that one sixth of the countries analyzed were subject to high level of exposure (0.45-1), one third to high to very high level of sensitivity (0.41-1) and low to moderate level of adaptive capacity (0-0.59). Proper adaptation strategies for reducing the microbial and chemical contamination of food products, soil and waters on the field were proposed. Finally, availability of data on food safety management systems and occurrence of foodborne outbreaks with global coverage were proposed as key factors for improving the robustness of future vulnerability assessments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shape and site dependent in vivo degradation of Mg-Zn pins in rabbit femoral condyle.

PubMed

Han, Pei; Tan, Moyan; Zhang, Shaoxiang; Ji, Weiping; Li, Jianan; Zhang, Xiaonong; Zhao, Changli; Zheng, Yufeng; Chai, Yimin

2014-02-20

A type of specially designed pin model of Mg-Zn alloy was implanted into the full thickness of lesions of New Zealand rabbits' femoral condyles. The recovery progress, outer surface healing and in vivo degradation were characterized by various methods including radiographs, Micro-CT scan with surface rendering, SEM (scanning electron microscope) with EDX (Energy Dispersive X-ray analysis) and so on. The in vivo results suggested that a few but not sufficient bridges for holding force were formed between the bone and the implant if there was a preexisting gap between them. The rapid degradation of the implantation in the condyle would result in the appearance of cavities. Morphological evaluation of the specially designed pins indicated that the cusp was the most vulnerable part during degradation. Furthermore, different implantation sites with distinct components and biological functions can lead to different degradation rates of Mg-Zn alloy. The rate of Mg-Zn alloy decreases in the following order: implantation into soft tissue, less trabecular bone, more trabecular bone, and cortical bone. Because of the complexities of in vivo degradation, it is necessary for the design of biomedical Mg-Zn devices to take into consideration the implantation sites used in clinics.

Acrobatic gymnastics injury: occurrence, site and training risk factors.

PubMed

Purnell, Melinda; Shirley, Debra; Nicholson, Leslie; Adams, Roger

2010-05-01

To determine the incidence and risk factors for injury associated with the performance of acrobatic gymnastics. Retrospective injury and training survey. New South Wales acrobatic gymnastics clubs. Surveys were completed by 73 acrobatic gymnasts (69 female) aged 8-26 years. Data on injury incidence and frequency for injury site were collected. Multiple-regression and ROC curve analysis were used to evaluate training-associated injury risk factors. Half (50.7%) of the participants had sustained an injury associated with acrobatic gymnastics in the past 12 months, with 28.8% of participants affected by chronic injury at the time of the study. Age of onset for acute and chronic acrobatics-related injury averaged 13.9 (SD +/- 3.03) and 14.7 (SD +/- 3.85) years, respectively. Injury sites were predominately the knee, ankle and wrist. Risk factors for injury were having an age of >or=13 years and training for >or=8 h per week at age 11 years. The results suggest that the 11-15 years age period is critical for the occurrence of injury in acrobatic gymnasts. This is possibly due to the adolescent growth spurt which may create an increased vulnerability to injury if training volume during this time is above a certain threshold.

Psychometric Properties of the Psychological Vulnerability Scale in Higher Education Students.

PubMed

Nogueira, Maria José; Barros, Luisa; Sequeira, Carlos

2017-05-01

Psychological vulnerability is related to cognitive beliefs that reflect dependence on one's sense of self-worth and to maladaptive functioning. It is a disadvantage that renders people less protected to face negative life experiences. The purpose of this study was to adapt and test the psychometric properties of the Psychological Vulnerability Scale in a sample of 267 Portuguese higher education students. A psychometric study of the Psychological Vulnerability Scale, after translation into Portuguese, was performed with a convenience sample of higher education students. Participants were asked to fill in the sociodemographic questionnaire, the Psychological Vulnerability Scale, the Brief Symptom Inventory, and a one-item question about the Perception of Vulnerability. The mean age of the participants was 20.5 years ( SD = 3.3). A factor analysis confirmed the original one-factor structure, explaining 42.9% of the total variance. The Psychological Vulnerability Scale showed adequate internal consistency and excellent test-retest stability. Convergent validity was confirmed by positive correlations with the Brief Symptom Inventory and Perception of Vulnerability. Overall, the Psychological Vulnerability Scale showed good validity, reliability, and stability over time. The Psychological Vulnerability Scale is now ready to be used by practitioners and researchers to measure the psychological vulnerability among Portuguese higher education students. These data add to the body of knowledge of psychiatric and mental health nursing and provides support for the use of the Psychological Vulnerability Scale in higher education students.

Coastal vulnerability: climate change and natural hazards perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romieu, E.; Vinchon, C.

2009-04-01

Introduction Studying coastal zones as a territorial concept (Integrated coastal zone management) is an essential issue for managers, as they have to consider many different topics (natural hazards, resources management, tourism, climate change…). The recent approach in terms of "coastal vulnerability" studies (since the 90's) is the main tool used nowadays to help them in evaluating impacts of natural hazards on coastal zones, specially considering climate change. This present communication aims to highlight the difficulties in integrating this concept in risk analysis as it is usually practiced in natural hazards sciences. 1) Coastal vulnerability as a recent issue The concept of coastal vulnerability mainly appears in the International panel on climate change works of 1992 (IPCC. 2001), where it is presented as essential for climate change adaptation. The concept has been defined by a common methodology which proposes the assessment of seven indicators, in regards to a sea level rise of 1m in 2100: people affected, people at risk, capital value at loss, land at loss, wetland at loss, potential adaptation costs, people at risk assuming this adaptation. Many national assessments have been implemented (Nicholls, et al. 1995) and a global assessment was proposed for three indicators (Nicholls, et al. 1999). The DINAS-Coast project reuses this methodology to produce the DIVA-tool for coastal managers (Vafeidis, et al. 2004). Besides, many other methodologies for national or regional coastal vulnerability assessments have been developed (review by (UNFCCC. 2008). The use of aggregated vulnerability indicators (including geomorphology, hydrodynamics, climate change…) is widespread: the USGS coastal vulnerability index is used worldwide and was completed by a social vulnerability index (Boruff, et al. 2005). Those index-based methods propose a vulnerability mapping which visualise indicators of erosion, submersion and/or socio economic sensibility in coastal zones. This concept is a great tool for policy makers to help managing their action and taking into account climate change (McFadden, et al. 2006). However, in those approaches, vulnerability is the output itself (cost of effective impacts, geomorphologic impacts…), but is not integrated it in a risk analysis. Furthermore, those studies emerged from a climatic perspective, which leads to consider climate change as a hazard or pressure whereas risk studies commonly consider hazards such as erosion and flooding, where climate change modifies the drivers of the hazard. 2) The natural hazards and socio economic perspectives In order to reduce impacts of natural hazards, decision makers need a complete risk assessment (probability of losses). Past studies on natural risks (landslide, earthquake...) highlighted the pertinence of defining risk as a combination of : (1)hazard occurrence and intensity, (2) exposition and (3)vulnerability of assets and population to this hazard (e.g. Douglas. 2007, Sarewitz, et al. 2003). Following the Renn and Klinke risk assessment frame, high uncertainties associated with coastal risks considering climatic and anthropic change highlights the importance of working on that concept of "vulnerability" (Klinke and Renn. 2002). Past studies on vulnerability assessment showed a frequently mentioned gap between "impact based" and "human based" points of view. It is nowadays a great issue for natural risk sciences. Many research efforts in FP7 projects such as MOVE and ENSURE focus on integrating the different dimensions of vulnerability (Turner, et al. 2003, Birkmann. 2006). Coastal risk studies highlight another issue of concern. We previously detailed the different use of the term "vulnerability" in the coastal context, quite different of the "natural risk's" use. Interaction of social, economic and physical sciences is considered within two french research projects (Vulsaco, Miseeva), in order to identify the vulnerability of a system to flooding or erosion (i.e. its characteristics that create potential harm), and integrate them in a risk assessment. Global change is considered by modifications of hazard, anthropogenic pressure and exposition, in order to point out possible modification of vulnerabilities. 3) Learning from both perspectives Coastal vulnerability in its "end in itself" and climate change dimension is a widespread tool for decision makers but it can be inadequate when vulnerability is a component of risk. This is mainly due to the consideration of climate change as a "hazard", so that coastal vulnerability is seen as the possible adverse impacts of climate change. As a matter of fact, this concept is clearly well considered by managers, who feel deeply concerned by climate change. However, coastal risk managers would gain in considering climate change more like a driver able to modify existing hazards than like the pressure in itself. Using this concept could lead to new perspectives of coastal risk mitigation for decision makers (social vulnerability, risk perception…), learning from other disciplines and sciences thanks to research projects such as MOVE (FP7). Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the BRGM coastal team for rich discussions and fruitful collaborations in coastal vulnerability studies, more specially Déborah Idier for animating the Vulsaco project and Manuel Garcin for his work on tsunamis in Sri Lanka. They are also grateful to the MISEEVA and MOVE teams, which are doing some great trans-disciplinary work. References Birkmann, J., 2006. Measuring vulnerability to Natural Hazards : towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University Press. Boruff, B. J., Emrich, C., Cutter, S. L., 2005. Erosion hazard vulnerability of US coastal counties. Journal of Coastal Research. 21, 932-942. Douglas, J., 2007. Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 7, 283-288. IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001 : synthesis report. A contribution of working groups I, II and III to the Third Assesment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Klinke, A. and Renn, O., 2002. A new approach to risk evaluation and management : risk based, precaution based and discourse based strategies. Risk Analysis. 22, 1071-1094. McFadden, L., Nicholls, R.J., Penning-Rowsell, E. (Eds.), 2006. Managing coastal vulnerability. Elsevier Science. Nicholls, R. J., Hoozemans, F. M. J., Marchand, M., 1999. Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses. Global Environmental Change, Part A: Human and Policy Dimensions. 9, S69-S87. Nicholls, R. J., Leatherman, S. P., Volonte, C. R., 1995. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise; qualitative and quantitative assessments; Potential impacts of accelerated sea-level rise on developing countries. Journal of Coastal Research. Special issue 14, 26-43. Sarewitz, D., Pielke, R., Keykhah, M., 2003. Vulnerability and Risk: Some Thoughts from a Political and Policy Perspective. Risk Analysis. 23, 805-810. Turner, B. L.,II, Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J. X., Luers, A., Martello, M. L., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., Schiller, A., 2003. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA. 100, 8074-8079. UNFCCC, 2008. Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Vafeidis, A., Nicholls, R., McFadden, L., 2004. Developing a database for global vulnerability analysis of coastal zones: The DINAS-COAST project and the DIVA tool.

Prevalence and predictors of posttraumatic stress symptoms in utility workers deployed to the World Trade Center following the attacks of September 11, 2001.

PubMed

Cukor, Judith; Wyka, Katarzyna; Jayasinghe, Nimali; Weathers, Frank; Giosan, Cezar; Leck, Pamela; Roberts, Jennifer; Spielman, Lisa; Crane, Michael; Difede, JoAnn

2011-03-01

Recent attention has begun to be focused on the effects of disaster recovery work on nonrescue workers. The goal of this study was to assess the prevalence and predictors of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and related symptoms in a population of utility workers deployed to the World Trade Center (WTC) site in the aftermath of 9/11. Utility workers deployed to the WTC site were screened at their place of employment between 10 and 34 months following the WTC attacks, utilizing both structured interviews and self-report measures. PTSD symptoms were assessed by the CAPS and the PCL; co-morbid disorders were also assessed. 2,960 individuals with complete CAPS and PCL data were included in the analyses. Eight percent of participants had symptoms consistent with full PTSD, 9.3% with subthreshold PTSD, 6% with MDD, 3.5% with GAD, and 2.5% with panic disorder. Although risk factors included psychiatric and trauma history, 51% of individuals with probable PTSD had neither; subjective perception of threat to one's life was the best predictor of probable PTSD. Extent of exposure predicted 89% of PTSD cases in those without a psychiatric or trauma history, but only 67% of cases among those with both. Nonrescue workers deployed to a disaster site are at risk for PTSD and depression. Extent of exposure affected the most vulnerable workers differently than the least vulnerable ones. These results suggest that the relationship among predictors of PTSD may be different for different vulnerability groups, and underscore the importance of screening, education, and prevention programs for disaster workers. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment in the western coastal belt in Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranagalage, M. M.

2017-12-01

26th December 2004 tsunami disaster has caused massive loss of life, damage to coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activities in the coastal belt of Sri Lanka. Tsunami vulnerability assessment is a requirement for disaster risk and vulnerability reduction. It plays a major role in identifying the extent and level of vulnerabilities to disasters within the communities. There is a need for a clearer understanding of the disaster risk patterns and factors contributing to it in different parts of the coastal belt. The main objective of this study is to investigate tsunami vulnerability assessment of Moratuwa Municipal council area in Sri Lanka. We have selected Moratuwa area due to considering urbanization pattern and Tsunami hazards of the country. Different data sets such as one-meter resolution LiDAR data, orthophoto, population, housing data and road layer were employed in this study. We employed tsunami vulnerability model for 1796 housing units located there, for a tsunami scenario with a maximum run-up 8 meters. 86% of the total land area affected by the tsunami in 8 meters scenarios. Additionally, building population has been used to estimate population in different vulnerability levels. The result shows that 32% of the buildings have extremely critical vulnerability level, 46% have critical vulnerability level, 22% have high vulnerability level, and 1% have a moderate vulnerability. According to the population estimation model results, 18% reside building with extremely critical vulnerability, 43% with critical vulnerability, 36% with high vulnerability and 3% belong to moderate vulnerability level. The results of the study provide a clear picture of tsunami vulnerability. Outcomes of this analysis can use as a valuable tool for urban planners to assess the risk and extent of disaster risk reduction which could be achieved via suitable mitigation measures to manage the coastal belt in Sri Lanka.

A Preliminary Tsunami Vulnerability Analysis for Yenikapi Region in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceren Cankaya, Zeynep; Suzen, Lutfi; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kolat, Cagil; Aytore, Betul; Zaytsev, Andrey

2015-04-01

One of the main requirements during post disaster recovery operations is to maintain proper transportation and fluent communication at the disaster areas. Ports and harbors are the main transportation hubs which must work with proper performance at all times especially after the disasters. Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis have major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Istanbul is a mega city with its various coastal utilities located at the north coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapi region of Istanbul, there are critical coastal utilities and vulnerable coastal structures and critical activities occur daily. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, water front commercial and/or recreational structures are some of the examples of coastal utilization which are vulnerable against marine disasters. Therefore their vulnerability under tsunami or any other marine hazard to Yenikapi region of Istanbul is an important issue. In this study, a methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack is proposed with the applications to Yenikapi region. In the study, high resolution (1m) GIS database of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed by using GIS implementation. The bathymetry and topography database and the vector dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the study area are obtained for tsunami numerical modeling for the study area. GIS based tsunami vulnerability assessment is conducted by applying the Multi-criteria Decision Making Analysis (MCDA). The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability parameters in the region due to two different classifications i) vulnerability of buildings/structures and ii) vulnerability of (human) evacuation are defined and scored. The risk level is computed using tsunami intensity (level of flow depth from simulations) and vulnerability (structural and human-based) at each node in Yenikapi. The results are presented at high resolution (1m) and discussed. Acknowledgements: Partial support by EU 603839 ASTARTE Project, UDAP-C-12-14 of AFAD of Turkey, 108Y227 and 113M556 of TUBITAK Turkey, RAPSODI (CONCERT_Dis-021) of CONCERT-Japan Joint Call, 2011K140210 of DPT, Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, Japan-Turkey Joint Research Project by JICA on earthquakes and tsunamis in Marmara Region by SATREPS are acknowledged.

Safe Spaces, Support, Social Capital: A Critical Analysis of Artists Working with Vulnerable Young People in Educational Contexts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sellman, Edward

2015-01-01

This article provides a critical and thematic analysis of three research projects involving artists working with vulnerable young people in educational contexts. It argues that artists create safe spaces in contrast to traditional educational activities but it will also raise questions about what constitutes such a space for participants. It will…

Developing Vulnerability Analysis Method for Climate Change Adaptation on Agropolitan Region in Malang District

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiarto, Y.; Perdinan; Atmaja, T.; Wibowo, A.

2017-03-01

Agriculture plays a strategic role in strengthening sustainable development. Based on agropolitan concept, the village becomes the center of economic activities by combining agriculture, agro-industry, agribusiness and tourism that able to create high value-added economy. The impact of climate change on agriculture and water resources may increase the pressure on agropolitan development. The assessment method is required to measure the vulnerability of area-based communities in the agropolitan to climate change impact. An analysis of agropolitan vulnerability was conducted in Malang district based on four aspects and considering the availability and distribution of water as the problem. The indicators used to measure was vulnerability component which consisted of sensitivity and adaptive capacity and exposure component. The studies earned 21 indicators derived from the 115 village-based data. The results of vulnerability assessments showed that most of the villages were categorised at a moderate level. Around 20% of 388 villages were categorized at high to very high level of vulnerability due to low level of agricultural economic. In agropolitan region within the sub-district of Poncokusumo, the vulnerability of the villages varies between very low to very high. The most villages were vulnerable due to lower adaptive capacity, eventhough the level of sensitivity and exposure of all villages were relatively similar. The existence of water resources was the biggest contributor to the high exposure of the villages in Malang district, while the reception of credit facilities and source of family income were among the indicators that lead to high sensitivity component.

Health adaptation policy for climate vulnerable groups: a 'critical computational linguistics' analysis.

PubMed

Seidel, Bastian M; Bell, Erica

2014-11-28

Many countries are developing or reviewing national adaptation policy for climate change but the extent to which these meet the health needs of vulnerable groups has not been assessed. This study examines the adequacy of such policies for nine known climate-vulnerable groups: people with mental health conditions, Aboriginal people, culturally and linguistically diverse groups, aged people, people with disabilities, rural communities, children, women, and socioeconomically disadvantaged people. The study analyses an exhaustive sample of national adaptation policy documents from Annex 1 ('developed') countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: 20 documents from 12 countries. A 'critical computational linguistics' method was used involving novel software-driven quantitative mapping and traditional critical discourse analysis. The study finds that references to vulnerable groups are relatively little present or non-existent, as well as poorly connected to language about practical strategies and socio-economic contexts, both also little present. The conclusions offer strategies for developing policy that is better informed by a 'social determinants of health' definition of climate vulnerability, consistent with best practice in the literature and global policy prescriptions.

The current status of coral reefs and their vulnerability to climate change and multiple human stresses in the Comoros Archipelago, Western Indian Ocean.

PubMed

Cowburn, B; Samoilys, M A; Obura, D

2018-05-31

Coral bleaching and various human stressors have degraded the coral reefs of the Comoros Archipelago in the past 40 years and rising atmospheric CO 2 levels are predicted to further impact marine habitats. The condition of reefs in the Comoros is poorly known; using SCUBA based methods we surveyed reef condition and resilience to bleaching at sites in Grande Comore and Mohéli in 2010 and 2016. The condition of reefs was highly variable, with a range in live coral cover between 6% and 60% and target fishery species biomass between 20 and 500 kg per ha. The vulnerability assessment of reefs to future coral bleaching and their exposure to fishing, soil erosion and river pollution in Mohéli Marine Park found that offshore sites around the islets south of the island were least likely to be impacted by these negative pressures. The high variability in both reef condition and vulnerability across reefs in the Park lends itself to spatially explicit conservation actions. However, it is noteworthy that climate impacts to date appear moderate and that local human pressures are not having a major impact on components of reef health and recovery, suggesting these reefs are relatively resilient to the current anthropogenic stresses that they are experiencing. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alaska's Changing Fire Regime - Implications for the Vulnerability of Its Boreal Forests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kasischke, E. S.; Hoy, E. E.; Verbyla, D. L.; Rupp, T. S.; Duffy, P. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Murphy, K. A.; Jandt, R.; Barnes, J. L.; Calef, M.;

Alaska’s changing fire regime - Implications for the vulnerability of its boreal forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kasischke, Eric S.; Verbyla, David L.; Rupp, T. Scott; McGuire, A. David; Murphy, Karen A.; Jandt, R.; Barnes, Jennifer L.; Hoy, E.; Duffy, Paul A.; Calef, Monika; Turetsky, Merritt R.

2010-01-01

A synthesis was carried out to examine Alaska’s boreal forest fire regime. During the 2000s, an average of 767 000 ha·year–1 burned, 50% higher than in any previous decade since the 1940s. Over the past 60 years, there was a decrease in the number of lightning-ignited fires, an increase in extreme lightning-ignited fire events, an increase in human-ignited fires, and a decrease in the number of extreme human-ignited fire events. The fraction of area burned from human-ignited fires fell from 26% for the 1950s and 1960s to 5% for the 1990s and 2000s, a result from the change in fire policy that gave the highest suppression priorities to fire events that occurred near human settlements. The amount of area burned during late-season fires increased over the past two decades. Deeper burning of surface organic layers in black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) forests occurred during late-growing-season fires and on more well-drained sites. These trends all point to black spruce forests becoming increasingly vulnerable to the combined changes of key characteristics of Alaska’s fire regime, except on poorly drained sites, which are resistant to deep burning. The implications of these fire regime changes to the vulnerability and resilience of Alaska’s boreal forests and land and fire management are discussed.

Potential Aquifer Vulnerability in Regions Down-Gradient from Uranium In Situ Recovery (ISR) Sites

EPA Science Inventory

Sandstone-hosted roll-front uranium ore deposits originate when U(VI) dissolved in groundwater is reduced and precipitated as insoluble U(IV) minerals. Groundwater redox geochemistry, aqueous complexation, and solute migration are instrumental in leaching uranium from source rock...

Benthic surveys of the historic pearl oyster beds of Qatar reveal a dramatic ecological change.

PubMed

Smyth, D; Al-Maslamani, I; Chatting, M; Giraldes, B

2016-12-15

The study aimed to confirm the presence of historic oyster banks of Qatar and code the biotopes present. The research also collated historical records and scientific publications to create a timeline of fishery activity. The oyster banks where once an extremely productive economic resource however, intense overfishing, extreme environmental conditions and anthropogenic impacts caused a fishery collapse. The timeline highlighted the vulnerability of ecosystem engineering bivalves if overexploited. The current status of the oyster banks meant only one site could be described as oyster dominant. This was unexpected as the sites were located in areas which once supported a highly productive oyster fishery. The research revealed the devastating effect that anthropogenic impacts can have on a relatively robust marine habitat like an oyster bed and it is hoped these findings will act as a driver to investigate and map other vulnerable habitats within the region before they too become compromised. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of landslide risk mitigation strategies in Shihmen Watershed, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chun-Yi; Chen, Su-Chin

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to establish landslide risk analysis procedures that can be used to analyze landslide risk in a watershed scale and to assess the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Landslide risk analysis encompassed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability of elements at risk, and community resilience capacity. First, landslide spatial probability, landslide temporal probability, and landslide area probability were joined to estimate the probability of landslides with an area exceeding a certain threshold in each slope unit. Second, the expected property and life losses were both analyzed in vulnerability analysis. Different elements at risk were assigned corresponding values, and then used in conjunction with the vulnerabilities to carry out quantitative analysis. Third, the resilience capacity of different communities was calculated based on the scores obtained through community checklists and the weights of individual items, including "the participation experience of disaster prevention drill," "real-time monitoring mechanism of community," "autonomous monitoring of residents," and "disaster prevention volunteer." Finally, the landslide probabilities, vulnerability analysis results, and resilience capacities were combined to assess landslide risk in Shihmen Watershed. In addition, the risks before and after the implementation of non-structural disaster prevention strategies were compared to determine the benefits of various strategies, and subsequently benefit-cost analysis was performed. Communities with high benefit-cost ratios included Hualing, Yisheng, Siouluan, and Gaoyi. The watershed as a whole had a benefit-cost ratio far greater than 1, indicating that the effectiveness of strategies was greater than the investment cost, and these measures were thus cost-effective. The results of factor sensitivity analysis revealed that changes in vulnerability and mortality rates would increase the uncertainty of risk, and that raise in annual interest rates or reduction in life cycle of measures would decrease the benefit-cost ratio. However, with regard to effectiveness analysis, these changes did not reverse the cost-effective inference.

A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

USGS Publications Warehouse

López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

2014-01-01

We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

Transformation-aware Exploit Generation using a HI-CFG

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-16

testing has many limitations of its own: it can require significant target -specific setup to perform well; it is unlikely to trigger vulnerabilities...check fails represents a potential vulnerability, but a conservative analysis can produce false positives , so we can use exploit generation to find...warnings that correspond to true positives . We can also find potentially vulnerable instructions in the course of a manual binary- level security audit

Wildland fire risk and social vulnerability in the Southeastern United States: An exploratory spatial data analysis approach

Treesearch

Cassandra Johnson Gaither; N.C. Poudyal; S. Goodrick; J.M. Bowker; S. Malone; J. Gan

2011-01-01

The southeastern U.S. is one of the more wildland fire prone areas of the country and also contains some of the poorest or most socially vulnerable rural communities. Our project addresses wildland fire risk in this part of the U.S and its intersection with social vulnerability. We examine spatial association between high wildland fire prone areas which also rank high...

Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cam, Hasan

2015-05-01

Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

Unlicensed care homes in the United States: a clandestine sector of long-term care.

PubMed

Lepore, Michael; Greene, Angela M; Porter, Kristie; Lux, Linda; Vreeland, Emily; Hawes, Catherine

2018-06-11

Residential care facilities operating without a state license are known to house vulnerable adults. Such unlicensed care homes (UCHs) commonly operate illegally, making them difficult to investigate. We conducted an exploratory, multimethod qualitative study of UCHs, including 18 subject matter expert interviews and site visits to three states, including a total of 30 stakeholder interviews, to understand UCH operations, services provided, and residents served. Findings indicate that various vulnerable groups reside in UCHs; some UCHs offer unsafe living environments; and some residents are reportedly abused, neglected, and financially exploited. Regulations, policies and practices that might influence UCH prevalence are discussed.

Integrated flash flood vulnerability assessment: Insights from East Attica, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Heiser, Micha; Hübl, Johannes; Fuchs, Sven

2016-10-01

In the framework of flood risk assessment, vulnerability is a key concept to assess the susceptibility of elements at risk. Besides the increasing amount of studies on flash floods available, in-depth information on vulnerability in Mediterranean countries was missing so far. Moreover, current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists who tend to view vulnerability as representing a set of socio-economic factors, and natural scientists who view vulnerability in terms of the degree of loss to an element at risk. Further, vulnerability studies in response to flash flood processes are rarely answered in the literature. In order to close this gap, this paper implemented an integrated vulnerability approach focusing on residential buildings exposed to flash floods in Greece. In general, both physical and social vulnerability was comparable low, which is interpreted as a result from (a) specific building regulations in Greece as well as general design principles leading to less structural susceptibility of elements at risk exposed, and (b) relatively low economic losses leading to less social vulnerability of citizens exposed. The population show high risk awareness and coping capacity to response to natural hazards event and in the same time the impact of the events are quite low, because of the already high use of local protection measures. The low vulnerability score for East Attica can be attributed especially to the low physical vulnerability and the moderate socio-economic well-being of the area. The consequence is to focus risk management strategies mainly in the reduction of the social vulnerability. By analysing both physical and social vulnerability an attempt was made to bridge the gap between scholars from sciences and humanities, and to integrate the results of the analysis into the broader vulnerability context.

Past landscape dynamics in mountain territories: historical trajectory of vulnerability in the Vars catchment (French Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puissant, Anne; Cioloboc, Florin; Schlosser, Arnaud; Gazo, Aurelien; Martin, Brice; Malet, Jean-Philippe

2016-04-01

Over the last decades and centuries, mountain landscapes have experiment natural and man-made landcover/use changes with mainly the development of tourism activities and the reduction of agro-pastoral activities. These transformations have directly influenced the spatial organization of mountain landscapes. To better anticipate the future exposure of the territory to natural hazards, decision-makers need retrospective analyses of the past changes. In the frame of the SAMCO project, whose objective is to propose mountain risk assessment methodologies in the context of global changes, this research presents a retrospective analysis of land cover/use changes (from 1948 to 2013) in the Vars catchment (French South Alps) submitted to several natural hazards (rockfall, landslide, and flood). Database of elements at risk has been built for five dates and evolution of vulnerability is performed through a versatile GIS-based analysis tool developed for the estimation of vulnerability indicators (physical, economical, social) at a fine scale (1:5000). Results allow identifying several areas with different trajectories of vulnerability which can be use as input data for risk analysis and define future trends.

Integrated assessment of urban vulnerability and resilience. Case study: Targu Ocna town, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grozavu, Adrian; Bănică, Alexandru

2015-04-01

Vulnerability assessment frequently emphasizes the internal fragility of a system in relation to a given hazard, when compared to similar systems or to a reference standard. This internal fragility, either biophysical or structural, may affect the ability to predict, to prepare for and cope with or to recover from the manifestation of a risk phenomenon. Thus, the vulnerability is highly related to resilience and adaptability. There is no single methodology for vulnerability and resilience analysis, their assessment can only be made by identifying and integrating indicators which are compatible with the analysis level and the geographic, economic and social features of a certain area. An integrated model of evaluating vulnerability and resilience capacity is being proposed in this paper for Targu Ocna, a small mining settlement in the Eastern Carpathians of Romania, that became in the last years a tourist town and acts within the surrounding territory as a dynamic local pole. Methodologically, the following steps and operations were considered: identifying potential hazards, identifying elements at risk, identifying proper indicators and integrating them in order to evaluate the general vulnerability and resilience. The inventory of elements at risk (the number of people potentially affected, residential or other functionalities buildings, roads and other infrastructure elements etc.) was made based on General Urban Plan, topographic maps (scale 1:5000), ortophotos from 2003 and 2008 and field mapping and researches. Further on, several vulnerability indicators were identified and included within the analytical approach: dependency ratio, income, quality of the habitat and technical urban facilities, environment quality showing differentiated sensitivity. Issues such as preparedness and preventive measures (priority areas within the risk prevention plans), coping ability (networks' geometry and connectivity, emergency utilities and services accessibility) and the recovering capacity (the time needed to reestablish functions after a disastrous event) were also taken into account. The selected indicators were mathematically processed (standardized and normalized) in order to maximize their relevance and to unitary express the results in the spread 0-1. Then a grid with a cell size of 100 x 100 m was created in order to spatialize vulnerability indicators, that were calculated as the average vulnerability of the exposed elements in each cell. All identified indicators have been processed within a cluster analysis that permitted the identification of similar areas in terms of vulnerabilities. Finally, a general index was obtained by the integration of all vulnerability factors in an equation based on the geometric mean. The results of the study could provide a reference basis to substantiate local correctly prioritized decisions for reducing vulnerability by mitigation and adaptation measures in order to avoid significant damages when risks materialise.

Limitation of the Cavitron technique by conifer pit aspiration.

PubMed

Beikircher, B; Ameglio, T; Cochard, H; Mayr, S

2010-07-01

The Cavitron technique facilitates time and material saving for vulnerability analysis. The use of rotors with small diameters leads to high water pressure gradients (DeltaP) across samples, which may cause pit aspiration in conifers. In this study, the effect of pit aspiration on Cavitron measurements was analysed and a modified 'conifer method' was tested which avoids critical (i.e. pit aspiration inducing) DeltaP. Four conifer species were used (Juniperus communis, Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris, and Larix decidua) for vulnerability analysis based on the standard Cavitron technique and the conifer method. In addition, DeltaP thresholds for pit aspiration were determined and water extraction curves were constructed. Vulnerability curves obtained with the standard method showed generally a less negative P for the induction of embolism than curves of the conifer method. Differences were species-specific with the smallest effects in Juniperus. Larix showed the most pronounced shifts in P(50) (pressure at 50% loss of conductivity) between the standard (-1.5 MPa) and the conifer (-3.5 MPa) methods. Pit aspiration occurred at the lowest DeltaP in Larix and at the highest in Juniperus. Accordingly, at a spinning velocity inducing P(50), DeltaP caused only a 4% loss of conductivity induced by pit aspiration in Juniperus, but about 60% in Larix. Water extraction curves were similar to vulnerability curves indicating that spinning itself did not affect pits. Conifer pit aspiration can have major influences on Cavitron measurements and lead to an overestimation of vulnerability thresholds when a small rotor is used. Thus, the conifer method presented here enables correct vulnerability analysis by avoiding artificial conductivity losses.

Longitudinal modelling of theory-based depressive vulnerabilities, depression trajectories and poor outcomes post-ACS.

PubMed

Keegan, Conor; Conroy, Ronán; Doyle, Frank

2016-02-01

Depression is associated with increased mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, little is known about the theoretical causes of depression trajectories post-ACS, and whether these trajectories predict subsequent morbidity/mortality. We tested a longitudinal model of depressive vulnerabilities, trajectories and mortality. A prospective observational study of 374 ACS patients was conducted. Participants completed questionnaires on theoretical vulnerabilities (interpersonal life events, reinforcing events, cognitive distortions, and Type D personality) during hospitalisation and depression at baseline and 3, 6 and 12 months post-hospitalisation. Latent class analysis determined trajectories of depression. Path analysis was used to test relationships among vulnerabilities, depression trajectories and outcomes (combination of 1-year morbidity and 7-year mortality). Vulnerabilities independently predicted persistent and subthreshold depression trajectory categories, with effect sizes significantly highest for persistent depression. Both subthreshold and persistent depression trajectories were significant predictors of morbidity/mortality (e.g. persistent depression OR=2.4, 95% CI=1.8-3.1, relative to never depressed). Causality cannot be inferred from these associations. We had no measures of history of depression or treatments, which may affect associations. Theoretical vulnerabilities predicted depression trajectories, which in turn predicted increased morbidity/mortality, demonstrating for the first time a potential longitudinal chain of events post-ACS. This longitudinal model has important practical implications as clinicians can use vulnerability measures to identify those at most risk of poor outcomes. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Assessing the social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

PubMed

Bizimana, Jean-Pierre; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel; Kienberger, Stefan

2015-01-07

Since 2004, malaria interventions in Rwanda have resulted in substantial decline of malaria incidence. However, this achievement is fragile as potentials for local malaria transmissions remain. The risk of getting malaria infection is partially explained by social conditions of vulnerable populations. Since vulnerability to malaria is both influenced by social and environmental factors, its complexity cannot be measured by a single value. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to apply a composite indicator approach for assessing social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda. This assessment informs the decision-makers in targeting malaria interventions and allocating limited resources to reduce malaria burden in Rwanda. A literature review was used to conceptualize the social vulnerability to malaria and to select the appropriate vulnerability indicators. Indicators used in the index creation were classified into susceptibility and lack of resilience vulnerability domains. The main steps followed include selection of indicators and datasets, imputation of missing values, descriptive statistics, normalization and weighting of indicators, local sensitivity analysis and indicators aggregation. Correlation analysis helped to empirically evidence the association between the indicators and malaria incidence. The high values of social vulnerability to malaria are found in Gicumbi, Rusizi, Nyaruguru and Gisagara, and low values in Muhanga, Nyarugenge, Kicukiro and Nyanza. The most influential susceptibility indicators to increase malaria are population change (r = 0.729), average number of persons per bedroom (r = 0.531), number of households affected by droughts and famines (r = 0.591), and area used for irrigation (r = 0.611). The bed net ownership (r = -0.398) and poor housing wall materials (0.378) are the lack of resilience indicators that significantly correlate with malaria incidence. The developed composite index social vulnerability to malaria indicates which indicators need to be addressed and in which districts. The results from this study are salient for public health policy- and decision makers in malaria control in Rwanda and timely support the national integrated malaria initiative. Future research development should focus on spatial explicit vulnerability assessment by combining environmental and social drivers to achieve an integrated and complete assessment of vulnerability to malaria.

Topological Analysis of Wireless Networks (TAWN)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-31

transmissions from any other node. Definition 1. A wireless network vulnerability is its susceptibility to becoming disconnected when a single source of...19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER (Include area code) 31-05-2016 FINAL REPORT 12-02-2015 -- 31-05-2016 Topological Analysis of Wireless Networks (TAWN) Robinson...Release, Distribution Unlimited) N/A The goal of this project was to develop topological methods to detect and localize vulnerabilities of wireless

GIS Analysis of Available Data to Identify regions in the U.S. Where Shallow Ground Water Supplies are Particularly Vulnerable to Contamination by Releases to Biofuels from Underground Storage Tanks

EPA Science Inventory

GIS analysis of available data to identify regions in the U.S. where shallow ground water supplies are particularly vulnerable to contamination by releases of biofuels from underground storage tanks. In this slide presentation, GIS was used to perform a simple numerical and ...

Vulnerabilities in Bytecode Removed by Analysis, Nuanced Confinement and Diversification (VIBRANCE)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

VIBRANCE tool starts with a vulnerable Java application and automatically hardens it against SQL injection, OS command injection, file path traversal...7 2.2 Java Front End...7 2.2.2 Java Byte Code Parser

[Research advances in vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change].

PubMed

Zhao, Hui-xia; Wu, Shao-hong; Jiang, Lu-guang

2007-02-01

Climate change with global warming as the sign has been caught great attention by the governments, international organizations, and scientists in the world. Human society and natural ecosystem are both exposed to climate change, and more and more people are waked up by its increasing harm. Vulnerability analysis and assessment are the key and basis for adapting and mitigating climate change, being the highlight in the research fields of climate change and ecology in recent years. The vulnerability assessment of climate change is being carried out in various research fields and on different scales, and much progress has been made. This paper introduced the concept of vulnerability, and summarized the research progress in vulnerability assessment of climate change, with the focus on the frame and methodology of vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change. The existed problems and future prospects in this research area were also discussed.

Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerability analysis: three case studies.

PubMed

Turner, B L; Matson, Pamela A; McCarthy, James J; Corell, Robert W; Christensen, Lindsey; Eckley, Noelle; Hovelsrud-Broda, Grete K; Kasperson, Jeanne X; Kasperson, Roger E; Luers, Amy; Martello, Marybeth L; Mathiesen, Svein; Naylor, Rosamond; Polsky, Colin; Pulsipher, Alexander; Schiller, Andrew; Selin, Henrik; Tyler, Nicholas

2003-07-08

The vulnerability framework of the Research and Assessment Systems for Sustainability Program explicitly recognizes the coupled human-environment system and accounts for interactions in the coupling affecting the system's responses to hazards and its vulnerability. This paper illustrates the usefulness of the vulnerability framework through three case studies: the tropical southern Yucatán, the arid Yaqui Valley of northwest Mexico, and the pan-Arctic. Together, these examples illustrate the role of external forces in reshaping the systems in question and their vulnerability to environmental hazards, as well as the different capacities of stakeholders, based on their access to social and biophysical capital, to respond to the changes and hazards. The framework proves useful in directing attention to the interacting parts of the coupled system and helps identify gaps in information and understanding relevant to reducing vulnerability in the systems as a whole.

Wind erodibility of soils at Fort Irwin, California (Mojave Desert), USA, before and after trampling disturbance: Implications for land management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belnap, J.; Phillips, S.L.; Herrick, J.E.; Johansen, J.R.

2007-01-01

Recently disturbed and 'control' (i.e. less recently disturbed) soils in the Mojave Desert were compared for their vulnerability to wind erosion, using a wind tunnel, before and after being experimentally trampled. Before trampling, control sites had greater cyanobacterial biomass, soil surface stability, threshold friction velocities (TFV, i.e. the wind speed required to move soil particles), and sediment yield than sites that had been more recently disturbed by military manoeuvres. After trampling, all sites showed a large drop in TFVs and a concomitant increase in sediment yield. Simple correlation analyses showed that the decline in TFVs and the rise in sediment yield were significantly related to cyanobacterial biomass (as indicated by soil chlorophyll a). However, chlorophyll a amounts were very low compared to chlorophyll a amounts found at cooler desert sites, where chlorophyll a is often the most important factor in determining TFV and sediment yield. Multiple regression analyses showed that other factors at Fort Irwin were more important than cyanobacterial biomass in determining the overall site susceptibility to wind erosion. These factors included soil texture (especially the fine, medium and coarse sand fractions), rock cover, and the inherent stability of the soil (as indicated by subsurface soil stability tests). Thus, our results indicate that there is a threshold of biomass below which cyanobacterial crusts are not the dominant factor in soil vulnerability to wind erosion. Most undisturbed soil surfaces in the Mojave Desert region produce very little sediment, but even moderate disturbance increases soil loss from these sites. Because current weathering rates and dust inputs are very low, soil formation rates are low as well. Therefore, soil loss in this region is likely to have long-term effects.

Software-Defined Radio Global System for Mobile Communications Transmitter Development for Heterogeneous Network Vulnerability Testing

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

AbdelWahab, “ 2G / 3G Inter-RAT Handover Performance Analysis,” Second European Conference on Antennas and Propagation, pp. 1, 8, 11–16, Nov. 2007. [19] J...RADIO GLOBAL SYSTEM FOR MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS TRANSMITTER DEVELOPMENT FOR HETEROGENEOUS NETWORK VULNERABILITY TESTING by Carson C. McAbee... MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS TRANSMITTER DEVELOPMENT FOR HETEROGENEOUS NETWORK VULNERABILITY TESTING 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Carson C. McAbee

Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

2013-04-01

The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

Fully integrated automated security surveillance system: managing a changing world through managed technology and product applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francisco, Glen; Brown, Todd

2012-06-01

Integrated security systems are essential to pre-empting criminal assaults. Nearly 500,000 sites have been identified (source: US DHS) as critical infrastructure sites that would suffer severe damage if a security breach should occur. One major breach in any of 123 U.S. facilities, identified as "most critical", threatens more than 1,000,000 people. The vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure are expected to continue and even heighten over the coming years.

Differing HIV vulnerability among female sex workers in a high HIV burden Indian state.

PubMed

Mamulwar, Megha; Godbole, Sheela; Bembalkar, Shilpa; Kamble, Pranil; Dulhani, Nisha; Yadav, Rajesh; Kadu, Chitra; Kumar, Pradeep; Lalikar, Shivraj; Acharya, Shrikala; Gangakhedkar, Raman; Risbud, Arun; Venkatesh, Srinivas

2018-01-01

The HIV sentinel surveillance [HSS] conducted in 2010-11 among female sex workers [FSW] in the state of Maharashtra, India provided an opportunity to assess characteristics of different types of FSWs and their HIV risk. It is important for India's National AIDS Control Program, to understand the differences in vulnerability among these FSW, in order to define more specific and effective risk reduction intervention strategies. Therefore, we analyzed data from HSS with the objective of understanding the HIV vulnerability among different types of FSW in Maharashtra. Cross sectional data collected as a part of HSS among FSWs in year 2010-11 from 21 sentinel sites in the state of Maharashtra were analyzed to understand the vulnerability and characteristics of different types of female sex workers based on their place of solicitation using multinomial logistic regression. While the HIV prevalence was 6.6% among all FSWs, it was 9.9% among brothel based [BB], 9% among street based [SB] and 3.1% and 3.7% among home based [HB], and bar based [Bar-B] sex workers respectively. SB FSWs were least likely to be located in HIV low burden districts [ANC] [ARRR: 0.61[95% CI: 0.49, 0.77

Modelling the ecological vulnerability to forest fires in mediterranean ecosystems using geographic information technologies.

PubMed

Duguy, Beatriz; Alloza, José Antonio; Baeza, M Jaime; De la Riva, Juan; Echeverría, Maite; Ibarra, Paloma; Llovet, Juan; Cabello, Fernando Pérez; Rovira, Pere; Vallejo, Ramon V

2012-12-01

Forest fires represent a major driver of change at the ecosystem and landscape levels in the Mediterranean region. Environmental features and vegetation are key factors to estimate the ecological vulnerability to fire; defined as the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of fire (provided a fire occurs). Given the predicted climatic changes for the region, it is urgent to validate spatially explicit tools for assessing this vulnerability in order to support the design of new fire prevention and restoration strategies. This work presents an innovative GIS-based modelling approach to evaluate the ecological vulnerability to fire of an ecosystem, considering its main components (soil and vegetation) and different time scales. The evaluation was structured in three stages: short-term (focussed on soil degradation risk), medium-term (focussed on changes in vegetation), and coupling of the short- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The model was implemented in two regions: Aragón (inland North-eastern Spain) and Valencia (eastern Spain). Maps of the ecological vulnerability to fire were produced at a regional scale. We partially validated the model in a study site combining two complementary approaches that focused on testing the adequacy of model's predictions in three ecosystems, all very common in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Spain: two shrublands and a pine forest. Both approaches were based on the comparison of model's predictions with values of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is considered a good proxy for green biomass. Both methods showed that the model's performance is satisfactory when applied to the three selected vegetation types.

Assessment of ground water vulnerability and its application to the development of protection strategy for the water supply aquifer in Owerri, Southeastern Nigeria.

PubMed

Ibe, K M; Nwankwor, G I; Onyekuru, S O

2001-03-01

Pollution vulnerability of the Owerri regional water supply aquifer was evaluated as a basis for developing appropriate protection strategy for the groundwater resource. The assessment was accomplished using Legrand, GOD, Siga and DRASTIC models. Techniques of the models generally involved parameters rating and point count systems, which are based on the evaluation of various parameter in relation to their capacity for enhancing or attenuating contaminants in the groundwater system. Field and laboratory evaluations of the parameters indicate that the Owerri area generally occupies a nearly, flat topography with a relatively high groundwater recharge. The area is underlain by predominantly sandy facies in the Northern area which grades into gravelly sequences towards the southwest. The Southeastern area is distinguished by thick clayey facies that thin westwards towards the Owerri metropolis. Effective hydraulic conductivity (Kz) in the downward direction ranges from 1.44 x 10(-3) to 5.6 x 10(-9) m s(-1); with the upper limits reflecting coarse sands and gravelly units. The amount of clay and clay-size particles in the sandy and gravelly units is negligible, suggesting that the sorptive capacity of the units is low. Depth to water table decreases southwards while hydraulic head gradients vary between 0.09 and 0.22. Groundwater occurs in unconfined conditions in most places except in the southeastern zone where it is semi-confined due to the presence of a clayey unit. The groundwater vulnerability map developed on the basis of the models and several other thematic maps shows that the Owerri metropolis and the southwest area of Owerri have high vulnerability, indicating groundwater pollution. The existing waste disposal sites in these sub-areas should be abandoned and rehabilitated to forstall further pollution of the groundwater system. Areas to the North and Southeast of Owerri have moderate and low vulnerabilities, respectively, indicating the relatively lower sensitivity of the groundwater system in the sub-areas to contamination. The lower sensitivity could further be matched with properly engineered sanitary landfills in the event of choice of sites, as an additional protective strategy for the groundwater system.

Leaf to landscape responses of giant sequoia to hotter drought: An introduction and synthesis for the special section

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nydick, Koren R.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Ambrose, Anthony R.; Asner, Gregory P.; Baxter, Wendy L.; Das, Adrian J.; Dawson, Todd E.; Martin, Roberta E.; Paz-Kagan, Tarin

2018-01-01

Hotter droughts are becoming more common as climate change progresses, and they may already have caused instances of forest dieback on all forested continents. Learning from hotter droughts, including where on the landscape forests are more or less vulnerable to these events, is critical to help resource managers proactively prepare for the future. As part of our Leaf to Landscape Project, we measured the response of giant sequoia, the world’s largest tree species, to the extreme 2012–2016 hotter drought in California. The project integrated leaf-level physiology measurements, crown-level foliage dieback surveys, and remotely sensed canopy water content (CWC) to shed light on mechanisms and spatial patterns in drought response. Here we summarize initial findings, present a conceptual model of drought response, and discuss management implications; details are presented in the other four articles of the special section on Giant Sequoias and Drought. Giant sequoias exhibited both leaf- and canopy-level responses that were effective in protecting whole-tree hydraulic integrity for the vast majority of individual sequoias. Very few giant sequoias died during the drought compared to other mixed conifer tree species; however, the magnitude of sequoia drought response varied across the landscape. This variability was partially explained by local site characteristics, including variables related to site water balance. We found that low CWC is an indicator of recent foliage dieback, which occurs when stress levels are high enough that leaf-level adjustments alone are insufficient for giant sequoias to maintain hydraulic integrity. CWC or change in CWC may be useful indicators of drought stress that reveal patterns of vulnerability to future hotter droughts. Future work will measure recovery from the drought and strengthen our ability to interpret CWC maps. Our ultimate goal is to produce giant sequoia vulnerability maps to help target management actions, such as reducing other stressors, increasing resistance to hotter drought through prescribed fire or mechanical thinning, and planting sequoias in projected future suitable habitat, which may occur outside current grove distributions. We suggest that managers compare different types of vulnerability assessments and combine vulnerability maps with other sources of information to inform decisions.

Emergency preparedness among people living near US army chemical weapons sites after September 11, 2001.

PubMed

Williams, Bryan L; Magsumbol, Melina S

2007-09-01

We examined trust in the army and perceptions of emergency preparedness among residents living near the Anniston, Ala, and Richmond, Ky, US Army chemical weapons stockpile sites shortly after September 11, 2001. Residents (n = 655) living near the 2 sites who participated in a cross-sectional population were relatively unprepared in the event of a chemical emergency. The events of September 11 gave rise to concerns regarding the security of stored chemical weapons and the sites' vulnerability to terrorist attacks. Although residents expressed trust in the army to manage chemical weapons safely, only a few expressed a desire to actively participate in site decisions. Compliance with procedures during emergencies could be seriously limited, putting residents in these sites at higher levels of risk of exposure to chemical hazards than nonresidents.

A general Bayesian framework for calibrating and evaluating stochastic models of annual multi-site hydrological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frost, Andrew J.; Thyer, Mark A.; Srikanthan, R.; Kuczera, George

2007-07-01

SummaryMulti-site simulation of hydrological data are required for drought risk assessment of large multi-reservoir water supply systems. In this paper, a general Bayesian framework is presented for the calibration and evaluation of multi-site hydrological data at annual timescales. Models included within this framework are the hidden Markov model (HMM) and the widely used lag-1 autoregressive (AR(1)) model. These models are extended by the inclusion of a Box-Cox transformation and a spatial correlation function in a multi-site setting. Parameter uncertainty is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Models are evaluated by their ability to reproduce a range of important extreme statistics and compared using Bayesian model selection techniques which evaluate model probabilities. The case study, using multi-site annual rainfall data situated within catchments which contribute to Sydney's main water supply, provided the following results: Firstly, in terms of model probabilities and diagnostics, the inclusion of the Box-Cox transformation was preferred. Secondly the AR(1) and HMM performed similarly, while some other proposed AR(1)/HMM models with regionally pooled parameters had greater posterior probability than these two models. The practical significance of parameter and model uncertainty was illustrated using a case study involving drought security analysis for urban water supply. It was shown that ignoring parameter uncertainty resulted in a significant overestimate of reservoir yield and an underestimation of system vulnerability to severe drought.

Future Directions in Vulnerability to Depression among Youth: Integrating Risk Factors and Processes across Multiple Levels of Analysis

PubMed Central

Hankin, Benjamin L.

2014-01-01

Depression is a developmental phenomenon. Considerable progress has been made in describing the syndrome, establishing its prevalence and features, providing clues as to its etiology, and developing evidence-based treatment and prevention options. Despite considerable headway in distinct lines of vulnerability research, there is an explanatory gap in the field ability to more comprehensively explain and predict who is likely to become depressed, when, and why. Still, despite clear success in predicting moderate variance for future depression, especially with empirically rigorous methods and designs, the heterogeneous and multi-determined nature of depression suggests that additional etiologies need to be included to advance knowledge on developmental pathways to depression. This paper advocates for a multiple levels of analysis approach to investigating vulnerability to depression across the lifespan and providing a more comprehensive understanding of its etiology. One example of a multiple levels of analysis model of vulnerabilities to depression is provided that integrates the most accessible, observable factors (e.g., cognitive and temperament risks), intermediate processes and endophenotypes (e.g., information processing biases, biological stress physiology, and neural activation and connectivity), and genetic influences (e.g., candidate genes and epigenetics). Evidence for each of these factors as well as their cross-level integration is provided. Methodological and conceptual considerations important for conducting integrative, multiple levels of depression vulnerability research are discussed. Finally, translational implications for how a multiple levels of analysis perspective may confer additional leverage to reduce the global burden of depression and improve care are considered. PMID:22900513

Narrowing the Gap in Outcomes for Vulnerable Groups: Overview and Analysis of Available Datasets on Vulnerable Groups and the Five ECM Outcomes. Executive Summary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morris, Marian

2007-01-01

This summary presents the main findings from a data mapping and analysis study commissioned by the Local Government Association (LGA) from the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) as part of a two-year development and research programme, Narrowing the Gap. This programme seeks to make a significant difference in "narrowing the…

Genie: An Inference Engine with Applications to Vulnerability Analysis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-06-01

Stanford Artifcial intelligence Laboratory, 1976. 15 D. A. Waterman and F. Hayes-Roth, eds. Pattern-Directed Inference Systems. Academic Press, Inc...Continue an reverse aide It nlecessary mid Identify by block rnmbor) ; f Expert Systems Artificial Intelligence % Vulnerability Analysis Knowledge...deduction it is used wherever possible in data -driven mode (forward chaining). Production rules - JIM 0 g79OOFMV55@S I INCLASSTpnF SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF

Protection of agriculture against drought in Slovenia based on vulnerability and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dovžak, M.; Stanič, S.; Bergant, K.; Gregorič, G.

2012-04-01

Past and recent extreme events, like earthquakes, extreme droughts, heat waves, flash floods and volcanic eruptions continuously remind us that natural hazards are an integral component of the global environment. Despite rapid improvement of detection techniques many of these events evade long-term or even mid-term prediction and can thus have disastrous impacts on affected communities and environment. Effective mitigation and preparedness strategies will be possible to develop only after gaining the understanding on how and where such hazards may occur, what causes them, what circumstances increase their severity, and what their impacts may be and their study has the recent years emerged as under the common title of natural hazard management. The first step in natural risk management is risk identification, which includes hazard analysis and monitoring, vulnerability analysis and determination of the risk level. The presented research focuses on drought, which is at the present already the most widespread as well as still unpredictable natural hazard. Its primary aim was to assess the frequency and the consequences of droughts in Slovenia based on drought events in the past, to develop methodology for drought vulnerability and risk assessment that can be applied in Slovenia and wider in South-Eastern Europe, to prepare maps of drought risk and crop vulnerability and to guidelines to reduce the vulnerability of the crops. Using the amounts of plant available water in the soil, slope inclination, solar radiation, land use and irrigation infrastructure data sets as inputs, we obtained vulnerability maps for Slovenia using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis with a weighted linear combination of the input parameters. The weight configuration was optimized by comparing the modelled crop damage to the assessed actual damage, which was available for the extensive drought case in 2006. Drought risk was obtained quantitatively as a function of hazard and vulnerability and presented in the same way as the vulnerability, as a GIS-based map. Risk maps show geographic regions in Slovenia where droughts pose a major threat to the agriculture and together with the vulnerability maps provide the basis for drought management, in particular for the appropriate mitigation and response actions in specific regions. The developed methodology is expected to be applied to the entire region of South-Eastern Europe within the initiative of the Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe.

[Local conditions of vulnerability associated with dengue in two communities of Morelos].

PubMed

Chuc, Silvia; Hurtado-Díaz, Magali; Schilmann, Astrid; Riojas-Rodríguez, Horacio; Rangel, Hilda; González-Fernández, Mariana Irina

2013-04-01

To evaluate the vulnerability associated with the occurrence of dengue in two villages of Morelos, Mexico from 2006 to 2009. MATERIALS AND METHODS. A survey on knowledge, risk perception, prevention practices and water use was applied in two villages of Morelos. Using a principal component analysis, an index of local vulnerability to dengue (IVL) was constructed. The association of IVL with the disease at home was assessed using a Chi-square test. The IVL included five components explaining 63% of the variance and was classified in three categories: low, medium and high. There was a significant association between increased vulnerability and prevalence of reported cases of dengue in Temixco and Tlaquiltenango. The study of vulnerability to dengue allows us to identify local needs in the field of health promotion.

Collision and displacement vulnerability among marine birds of the California Current System associated with offshore wind energy infrastructure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, Josh; Kelsey, Emily C.; Felis, Jonathan J.; Pereksta, David M.

2016-10-27

With growing climate change concerns and energy constraints, there is an increasing need for renewable energy sources within the United States and globally. Looking forward, offshore wind-energy infrastructure (OWEI) has the potential to produce a significant proportion of the power needed to reach our Nation’s renewable energy goal. Offshore wind-energy sites can capitalize open areas within Federal waters that have persistent, high winds with large energy production potential. Although there are few locations in the California Current System (CCS) where it would be acceptable to build pile-mounted wind turbines in waters less than 50 m deep, the development of technology able to support deep-water OWEI (>200 m depth) could enable wind-energy production in the CCS. As with all human-use of the marine environment, understanding the potential impacts of wind-energy infrastructure on the marine ecosystem is an integral part of offshore wind-energy research and planning. Herein, we present a comprehensive database to quantify marine bird vulnerability to potential OWEI in the CCS (see https://doi.org/10.5066/F79C6VJ0). These data were used to quantify marine bird vulnerabilities at the population level. For 81 marine bird species present in the CCS, we created three vulnerability indices: Population Vulnerability, Collision Vulnerability, and Displacement Vulnerability. Population Vulnerability was used as a scaling factor to generate two comprehensive indicies: Population Collision Vulnerability (PCV) and Population Displacement Vulnerability (PDV). Within the CCS, pelicans, terns (Forster’s [Sterna forsteri], Caspian [Hydroprogne caspia], Elegant [Thalasseus elegans], and Least Tern [Sternula antillarum]), gulls (Western [Larus occidentalis] and Bonaparte’s Gull [Chroicocephalus philadelphia]), South Polar Skua (Stercorarius maccormicki), and Brandt’s Cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatus) had the greatest PCV scores. Brown Pelican (Pelicanus occidentalis) had the greatest overall PCV score. Some alcids (Scripps’s Murrelet [Synthliboramphus scrippsi], Marbled Murrelet [Brachyramphus marmoratus], and Tufted Puffin [Fratercula cirrhata]), terns (Elegant and Least Lern), and loons (Yellow-billed [Gavia adamsii] and Common Loon [G. immer]) had the greatest PDV scores. Ashy Storm-Petrel (Oceanodroma homochroa) had the greatest overall PDV score. To help inform decisions that will impact seabird conservation, vulnerability assessment results can now be combined with recent marine bird at-sea distribution and abundance data for the CCS to evaluate vulnerability areas where OWEI development is being considered. Lastly, it is important to note that as new information about seabird behavior and populations in the CCS becomes available, this database can be easily updated and modified.

Urban Heat Wave Vulnerability Analysis Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

JE, M.; KIM, H.; Jung, S.

2017-12-01

Much attention has been paid to thermal environments in Seoul City in South Korea since 2016 when the worst heatwave in 22 years. It is necessary to provide a selective measure by singling out vulnerable regions in advance to cope with the heat wave-related damage. This study aims to analyze and categorize vulnerable regions of thermal environments in the Seoul and analyzes and discusses the factors and risk factors for each type. To do this, this study conducted the following processes: first, based on the analyzed various literature reviews, indices that can evaluate vulnerable regions of thermal environment are collated. The indices were divided into climate exposure index related to temperature, sensitivity index including demographic, social, and economic indices, and adaptation index related to urban environment and climate adaptation policy status. Second, significant variables were derived to evaluate a vulnerable region of thermal environment based on the summarized indices in the above. this study analyzed a relationship between the number of heat-related patients in Seoul and variables that affected the number using multi-variate statistical analysis to derive significant variables. Third, the importance of each variable was calculated quantitatively by integrating the statistical analysis results and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Fourth, a distribution of data for each index was identified based on the selected variables and indices were normalized and overlapped. Fifth, For the climate exposure index, evaluations were conducted as same as the current vulnerability evaluation method by selecting future temperature of Seoul predicted through the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) climate change scenarios as an evaluation variable. The results of this study can be utilized as foundational data to establish a countermeasure against heatwave in Seoul. Although it is limited to control heatwave occurrences itself completely, improvements on environment for heatwave alleviation and response can be done. In particular, if vulnerable regions of heatwave can be identified and managed in advance, the study results are expected to be utilized as a basis of policy utilization in local communities accordingly.

Faculty Social Networking Interactions: Using Social Domain Theory to Assess Student Views

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nemetz, Patricia L.

2012-01-01

As educators consider using social networking sites, like Facebook, for educational innovations, they must be aware of possible vulnerabilities associated with the blurring of social and professional boundaries. This research uses social domain theory to examine how students rate the appropriateness of various faculty postings, behaviors, and…

Ground roost resource selection for Merriam's wild turkeys

Treesearch

Chad P. Lehman; Daniel J. Thompson; Mark A. Rumble

2010-01-01

Concealment cover is important for ground-roosting wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) poults immediately following hatch during the vulnerable, preflight stage. We compared concealment cover resources selected at ground roosts to those of nest sites and available resources for Merriam's turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) in the Black Hills of South Dakota, USA...

The Unexplored Impact of IPv6 on Intrusion Detection Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

of cross-NIDS, standardized, rule sets such as SNORT’s VRT [23]. • Continuously monitor vulnerability or exploit development sites. For example, the...and BRO polices should be written to enhance detection. The bolstering of built-in databases and repositories such as VRT [23] for specific IPv6 issues

[Mapping environmental vulnerability from ETM + data in the Yellow River Mouth Area].

PubMed

Wang, Rui-Yan; Yu, Zhen-Wen; Xia, Yan-Ling; Wang, Xiang-Feng; Zhao, Geng-Xing; Jiang, Shu-Qian

2013-10-01

The environmental vulnerability retrieval is important to support continuing data. The spatial distribution of regional environmental vulnerability was got through remote sensing retrieval. In view of soil and vegetation, the environmental vulnerability evaluation index system was built, and the environmental vulnerability of sampling points was calculated by the AHP-fuzzy method, then the correlation between the sampling points environmental vulnerability and ETM + spectral reflectance ratio including some kinds of conversion data was analyzed to determine the sensitive spectral parameters. Based on that, models of correlation analysis, traditional regression, BP neural network and support vector regression were taken to explain the quantitative relationship between the spectral reflectance and the environmental vulnerability. With this model, the environmental vulnerability distribution was retrieved in the Yellow River Mouth Area. The results showed that the correlation between the environmental vulnerability and the spring NDVI, the September NDVI and the spring brightness was better than others, so they were selected as the sensitive spectral parameters. The model precision result showed that in addition to the support vector model, the other model reached the significant level. While all the multi-variable regression was better than all one-variable regression, and the model accuracy of BP neural network was the best. This study will serve as a reliable theoretical reference for the large spatial scale environmental vulnerability estimation based on remote sensing data.

Nursing Student Birth Doulas' Influence On the Childbearing Outcomes of Vulnerable Populations.

PubMed

Van Zandt, Shirley E; Kim, Soohyun; Erickson, Amanda

2016-01-01

Of 1,511 women served by nursing student birth doulas (Birth Companions) between 1998 and 2014, 34.5% were identified as vulnerable (refugees, non-English speakers, teens, low income, low education). This retrospective evaluation of the Birth Companions Program showed that vulnerable mothers had more epidurals and smaller babies, and attempted breastfeeding less frequently than nonvulnerable. There was no difference in the frequency of caesarean births, pitocin induction/augmentation, low birth weight, or preterm newborns among the vulnerable women. Birth Companion interventions may have a role in influencing these outcomes. The Birth Companions program will use this analysis to identify additional services for these populations.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Banyas Catchment of the Syrian coastal area using GIS and the RISKE method.

PubMed

Kattaa, Bassam; Al-Fares, Walid; Al Charideh, Abdul Rahman

2010-05-01

Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and landuse planning. This contribution aims at estimating aquifer vulnerability by applying the RISKE model in Banyas Catchment Area (BCA), Tartous Prefecture, west Syria. An additional objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the RISKE model and a geographical information system (GIS) as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment. The RISKE model uses five environmental parameters (Rock of aquifer media, Infiltration, Soil media, Karst, and Epikarst) to characterize the hydro-geological setting and evaluate aquifer vulnerability. The elevated eastern and low western part of the study area was dominated by high vulnerability classes, while the middle part was characterized by moderate vulnerability classes. Based on the vulnerability analysis, it was found that 2% and 39% of BCA is under low and high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively, while more than 52% and 5% of the area of BCA can be designated as an area of moderate and very high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analyses and high capabilities of handling a large amount of spatial data. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones.

PubMed

Huai, Jianjun

2016-09-27

Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an "integrative typology" of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the "5W1H" questions: "Who is concerned about how to adapt to the vulnerability of what to what in some place (where) at some time (when)?" Using the case of the vulnerability of wheat, barley and oats to drought in Australian wheat sheep zones during 1978-1999, I answer the "5W1H" questions through establishing the "six typologies" framework. I then optimize the measurement of vulnerability through contrasting twelve kinds of vulnerability scores with the divergence of crops yields from their regional mean. Through identifying the socioeconomic constraints, I propose seven generic types of crop-drought vulnerability and local adaptive strategy. Our results illustrate that the process of assessing vulnerability and selecting adaptations can be enhanced using a combination of integration, optimization and typology, which emphasize dynamic transitions and transformations between integration and typology.

Hydrologic vulnerability of tribal reservation lands across the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, C., Jr.; Leibowitz, S. G.; Sawicz, K. A.; Comeleo, R. L.; Stratton, L. E.

2017-12-01

We apply the hydrologic landscapes (HL) concept to assess the hydrologic vulnerability to climate of the United States (U.S.) with special emphasis on tribal lands. The basic assumption of the HL approach is that catchments that share similar physical and climatic characteristics are expected to have similar hydrologic characteristics. We map climate vulnerability by integrating a retrospective analysis of historical climate and hydrology into the HL approach, comparing this baseline of variability with future projections of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, climatic moisture, surplus water, and seasonality of the water surplus. Projections that are not within two standard deviations of the historical decadal average contribute to the vulnerability index for each metric. This allows stakeholders and/or water resource managers to understand the potential impacts of future conditions. The resulting vulnerability maps show that temperature and potential evapotranspiration are consistently projected to have high vulnerability indices across the U.S. including all tribal reservations. Precipitation vulnerability is not as spatially-uniform as temperature. Most areas with snow are projected to experience significant changes in future snow accumulation. The seasonality vulnerability map shows that mountainous areas in the West are most prone to changes in seasonality. This paper illustrates how the HL approach can help assess climatic and hydrologic vulnerability for disadvantaged groups across the U.S. By combining the HL concept and climate vulnerability analyses, we provide an approach that can assist tribal resource managers to perform vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans, which is a major priority for the tribes nationwide.

45 CFR 164.308 - Administrative safeguards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

..., contain, and correct security violations. (ii) Implementation specifications: (A) Risk analysis (Required). Conduct an accurate and thorough assessment of the potential risks and vulnerabilities to the... vulnerabilities to a reasonable and appropriate level to comply with § 164.306(a). (C) Sanction policy (Required...

Vulnerability assessment including tangible and intangible components in the index composition: An Amazon case study of flooding and flash flooding.

PubMed

Andrade, Milena Marília Nogueira de; Szlafsztein, Claudio Fabian

2018-07-15

The vulnerability of cities and communities in the Amazon to flooding and flash flooding is increasing. The effects of extreme events on populations vary across landscapes, causing vulnerability to differ spatially. Traditional vulnerability studies in Brazil and across the world have used the vulnerability index for the country and, more recently, municipality scales. The vulnerability dimensions are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For each of these dimensions, there is a group of indicators that constitutes a vulnerability index using quantitative data. Several vulnerability assessments have used sensitivity and exposure analyses and, recently, adaptive capacity has been considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis allows spatial regional modeling using quantitative vulnerability indicators. This paper presents a local-scale vulnerability assessment in an urban Amazonian area, Santarém City, using interdisciplinary methods. Data for exposure and sensitivity were gathered by remote sensing and census data, respectively. However, adaptive capacity refers to local capacities, whether infrastructural or not, and the latter were gathered by qualitative participatory methods. For the mixed data used to study adaptive capacity, we consider tangible components for countable infrastructure that can cope with hazards, and intangible components that reflect social activities based on risk perceptions and collective action. The results indicate that over 80% of the area is highly or moderately vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Exposure and adaptive capacity were determinants of the results. Lower values of adaptive capacity play a significant role in vulnerability enhancement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the vulnerability of Brazilian municipalities to the vectorial transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi using multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Vinhaes, Márcio Costa; de Oliveira, Stefan Vilges; Reis, Priscilleyne Ouverney; de Lacerda Sousa, Ana Carolina; Silva, Rafaella Albuquerque E; Obara, Marcos Takashi; Bezerra, Cláudia Mendonça; da Costa, Veruska Maia; Alves, Renato Vieira; Gurgel-Gonçalves, Rodrigo

2014-09-01

Despite the dramatic reduction in Trypanosoma cruzi vectorial transmission in Brazil, acute cases of Chagas disease (CD) continue to be recorded. The identification of areas with greater vulnerability to the occurrence of vector-borne CD is essential to prevention, control, and surveillance activities. In the current study, data on the occurrence of domiciliated triatomines in Brazil (non-Amazonian regions) between 2007 and 2011 were analyzed. Municipalities' vulnerability was assessed based on socioeconomic, demographic, entomological, and environmental indicators using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Overall, 2275 municipalities were positive for at least one of the six triatomine species analyzed (Panstrongylus megistus, Triatoma infestans, Triatoma brasiliensis, Triatoma pseudomaculata, Triatoma rubrovaria, and Triatoma sordida). The municipalities that were most vulnerable to vector-borne CD were mainly in the northeast region and exhibited a higher occurrence of domiciliated triatomines, lower socioeconomic levels, and more extensive anthropized areas. Most of the 39 new vector-borne CD cases confirmed between 2001 and 2012 in non-Amazonian regions occurred within the more vulnerable municipalities. Thus, MCDA can help to identify the states and municipalities that are most vulnerable to the transmission of T. cruzi by domiciliated triatomines, which is critical for directing adequate surveillance, prevention, and control activities. The methodological approach and results presented here can be used to enhance CD surveillance in Brazil. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How does specialist nursing contribute to HIV service delivery across England?

PubMed

Piercy, Hilary; Bell, Gill; Hughes, Charlie; Naylor, Simone; Bowman, Christine A

2017-07-01

This study aimed to examine what specialist nursing contributes to HIV service delivery across England and how it could be optimised. A three part multi-method qualitative study was undertaken, involving (1) interviews with 19 stakeholders representing professional or service user groups; (2) interviews with nurse/physician pairs from 21 HIV services; and (3) case studies involving site visits to five services. A framework analysis approach was used to manage and analyse the data. There was substantial variability in specialist nursing roles and the extent of role development. Most hospital-based HIV nurses (13/19) were running nurse-led clinics, primarily for stable patients with almost half (6/13) also managing more complex patients. Role development was supported by non-medical prescribing, a robust governance framework and appropriate workload allocation. The availability and organisation of community HIV nursing provision determined how services supported vulnerable patients to keep them engaged in care. Four service models were identified. The study showed that there is scope for providing a greater proportion of routine care through nurse-led clinics. HIV community nursing can influence health outcomes for vulnerable patients, but provision is variable. With limited financial resources, services may need to decide how to deploy their specialist nurses for best effect.

Challenging HIV vulnerability discourse: the case of professional and entrepreneurial women in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.

PubMed

Jangu, Neema William; Tam, Ailie; Maticka-Tyndale, Eleanor

2017-05-01

A poverty-HIV narrative has dominated many HIV prevention strategies in Africa despite epidemiological data showing higher prevalence of infection among educated and wealthier women in several African countries. This paper examines the perspectives of professional and entrepreneurial women on HIV risk and vulnerability based on their knowledge and lived experiences, comparing this to the HIV discourse evident in five strategic documents that shape intervention in Tanzania. The purpose is to uncover the confluence and dissonance between the discourses of government and those of professional women themselves. Qualitative research methods included critical discourse analysis of five strategic documents and thematic analysis of 37 in-depth interviews with women. The findings challenge fixed representations of women and notions of vulnerability embedded in the poverty-HIV discourse. Women described using their sexuality and sexual agency as a means to elevate their position in ways that made them vulnerable to sexual harassment and coercion. This is explored through two intersecting themes: non-marital sexual exchanges to gain an education or employment, and marriage. The intersecting social positions and constructions of female sexuality and agency expressed by the women in this study provide insights into other avenues and forms of HIV vulnerability.

A metric-based assessment of flood risk and vulnerability of rural communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeloye, A. J.; Mwale, F. D.; Dulanya, Z.

2015-06-01

In response to the increasing frequency and economic damages of natural disasters globally, disaster risk management has evolved to incorporate risk assessments that are multi-dimensional, integrated and metric-based. This is to support knowledge-based decision making and hence sustainable risk reduction. In Malawi and most of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), however, flood risk studies remain focussed on understanding causation, impacts, perceptions and coping and adaptation measures. Using the IPCC Framework, this study has quantified and profiled risk to flooding of rural, subsistent communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi. Flood risk was obtained by integrating hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard was characterised in terms of flood depth and inundation area obtained through hydraulic modelling in the valley with Lisflood-FP, while the vulnerability was indexed through analysis of exposure, susceptibility and capacity that were linked to social, economic, environmental and physical perspectives. Data on these were collected through structured interviews of the communities. The implementation of the entire analysis within GIS enabled the visualisation of spatial variability in flood risk in the valley. The results show predominantly medium levels in hazardousness, vulnerability and risk. The vulnerability is dominated by a high to very high susceptibility. Economic and physical capacities tend to be predominantly low but social capacity is significantly high, resulting in overall medium levels of capacity-induced vulnerability. Exposure manifests as medium. The vulnerability and risk showed marginal spatial variability. The paper concludes with recommendations on how these outcomes could inform policy interventions in the Valley.

Matrix vesicles in the fibrous cap of atherosclerotic plaque: possible contribution to plaque rupture

PubMed Central

Bobryshev, Y V; Killingsworth, M C; Lord, R S A; Grabs, A J

2008-01-01

Plaque rupture is the most common type of plaque complication and leads to acute ischaemic events such as myocardial infarction and stroke. Calcification has been suggested as a possible indicator of plaque instability. Although the role of matrix vesicles in the initial stages of arterial calcification has been recognized, no studies have yet been carried out to examine a possible role of matrix vesicles in plaque destabilization. Tissue specimens selected for the present study represented carotid specimens obtained from patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy. Serial frozen cross-sections of the tissue specimens were cut and mounted on glass slides. The thickness of the fibrous cap (FCT) in each advanced atherosclerotic lesion, containing a well developed lipid/necrotic core, was measured at its narrowest sites in sets of serial sections. According to established criteria, atherosclerotic plaque specimens were histologically subdivided into two groups: vulnerable plaques with thin fibrous caps (FCT <100 μm) and presumably stable plaques, in which fibrous caps were thicker than 100 μm. Twenty-four carotid plaques (12 vulnerable and 12 presumably stable plaques) were collected for the present analysis of matrix vesicles in fibrous caps. In order to provide a sufficient number of representative areas from each plaque, laser capture microdissection (LCM) was carried out. The quantification of matrix vesicles in ultrathin sections of vulnerable and stable plaques revealed that the numbers of matrix vesicles were significantly higher in fibrous caps of vulnerable plaques than those in stable plaques (8.908±0.544 versus 6.208±0.467 matrix vesicles per 1.92 μm2 standard area; P= 0.0002). Electron microscopy combined with X-ray elemental microanalysis showed that some matrix vesicles in atherosclerotic plaques were undergoing calcification and were characterized by a high content of calcium and phosphorus. The percentage of calcified matrix vesicles/microcalcifications was significantly higher in fibrous caps in vulnerable plaques compared with that in stable plaques (6.705±0.436 versus 5.322±0A94; P= 0.0474). The findings reinforce a view that the texture of the extracellular matrix in the thinning fibrous cap of atherosclerotic plaque is altered and this might contribute to plaque destabilization. PMID:18194456

Spatio-temporal characteristics of the extreme precipitation by L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun; Sun, Shanlei

2016-05-01

The regionalization methods, which "trade space for time" by pooling information from different locations in the frequency analysis, are efficient tools to enhance the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. This paper aims at improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation by using regionalization methods, and providing scientific background and practical assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. To achieve the main goals, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the most popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation with special attention paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which has not been considered by most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence, and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, generalized extreme-value (GEV) and generalized normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best fitted distributions for most of the sub-regions, and estimated quantiles for each region were obtained. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90 % error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those without inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with a return period of 100 years were finally obtained which indicated that there are two regions with highest precipitation extremes and a large region with low precipitation extremes. However, the regions with low precipitation extremes are the most developed and densely populated regions of the country, and floods will cause great loss of human life and property damage due to the high vulnerability. The study methods and procedure demonstrated in this paper will provide useful reference for frequency analysis of precipitation extremes in large regions, and the findings of the paper will be beneficial in flood control and management in the study area.

Validation of Noninvasive In Vivo Compound Ultrasound Strain Imaging Using Histologic Plaque Vulnerability Features.

PubMed

Hansen, Hendrik H G; de Borst, Gert Jan; Bots, Michiel L; Moll, Frans L; Pasterkamp, Gerard; de Korte, Chris L

2016-11-01

Carotid plaque rupture is a major cause of stroke. Key issue for risk stratification is early identification of rupture-prone plaques. A noninvasive technique, compound ultrasound strain imaging, was developed providing high-resolution radial deformation/strain images of atherosclerotic plaques. This study aims at in vivo validation of compound ultrasound strain imaging in patients by relating the measured strains to typical features of vulnerable plaques derived from histology after carotid endarterectomy. Strains were measured in 34 severely stenotic (>70%) carotid arteries at the culprit lesion site within 48 hours before carotid endarterectomy. In all cases, the lumen-wall boundary was identifiable on B-mode ultrasound, and the imaged cross-section did not move out of the imaging plane from systole to diastole. After endarterectomy, the plaques were processed using a validated histology analysis technique. Locally elevated strain values were observed in regions containing predominantly components related to plaque vulnerability, whereas lower values were observed in fibrous, collagen-rich plaques. The median strain of the inner plaque layer (1 mm thickness) was significantly higher (P<0.01) for (fibro)atheromatous (n=20, strain=0.27%) than that for fibrous plaques (n=14, strain=-0.75%). Also, a significantly larger area percentage of the inner layer revealed strains above 0.5% for (fibro)atheromatous (45.30%) compared with fibrous plaques (31.59%). (Fibro)atheromatous plaques were detected with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 75%, 86%, 88%, and 71%, respectively. Strain did not significantly correlate with fibrous cap thickness, smooth muscle cell, or macrophage concentration. Compound ultrasound strain imaging allows differentiating (fibro)atheromatous from fibrous carotid artery plaques. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Logistic regression modeling to assess groundwater vulnerability to contamination in Hawaii, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mair, Alan; El-Kadi, Aly I.

2013-10-01

Capture zone analysis combined with a subjective susceptibility index is currently used in Hawaii to assess vulnerability to contamination of drinking water sources derived from groundwater. In this study, we developed an alternative objective approach that combines well capture zones with multiple-variable logistic regression (LR) modeling and applied it to the highly-utilized Pearl Harbor and Honolulu aquifers on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. Input for the LR models utilized explanatory variables based on hydrogeology, land use, and well geometry/location. A suite of 11 target contaminants detected in the region, including elevated nitrate (> 1 mg/L), four chlorinated solvents, four agricultural fumigants, and two pesticides, was used to develop the models. We then tested the ability of the new approach to accurately separate groups of wells with low and high vulnerability, and the suitability of nitrate as an indicator of other types of contamination. Our results produced contaminant-specific LR models that accurately identified groups of wells with the lowest/highest reported detections and the lowest/highest nitrate concentrations. Current and former agricultural land uses were identified as significant explanatory variables for eight of the 11 target contaminants, while elevated nitrate was a significant variable for five contaminants. The utility of the combined approach is contingent on the availability of hydrologic and chemical monitoring data for calibrating groundwater and LR models. Application of the approach using a reference site with sufficient data could help identify key variables in areas with similar hydrogeology and land use but limited data. In addition, elevated nitrate may also be a suitable indicator of groundwater contamination in areas with limited data. The objective LR modeling approach developed in this study is flexible enough to address a wide range of contaminants and represents a suitable addition to the current subjective approach.

Hydrological threats to riparian wetlands of international importance - a global quantitative and qualitative analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Christof; Flörke, Martina; De Stefano, Lucia; Petersen-Perlman, Jacob D.

2017-06-01

Riparian wetlands have been disappearing at an accelerating rate. Their ecological integrity as well as their vital ecosystem services for humankind depend on regular patterns of inundation and drying provided by natural flow regimes. However, river hydrology has been altered worldwide. Dams cause less variable flow regimes and water abstractions decrease the amount of flow so that ecologically important flood pulses are often reduced. Given growing population pressure and projected climate change, immediate action is required. However, the implementation of counteractive measures is often a complex task. This study develops a screening tool for assessing hydrological threats to riparian wetlands on global scales. The approach is exemplified on 93 Ramsar sites, many of which are located in transboundary basins. First, the WaterGAP3 hydrological modeling framework is used to quantitatively compare current and future modified flow regimes to reference flow conditions. In our simulations current water resource management seriously impairs riparian wetland inundation at 29 % of the analyzed sites. A further 8 % experience significantly reduced flood pulses. In the future, eastern Europe, western Asia, as well as central South America could be hotspots of further flow modifications due to climate change. Second, a qualitative analysis of the 93 sites determined potential impact on overbank flows resulting from planned or proposed dam construction projects. They take place in one-third of the upstream areas and are likely to impair especially wetlands located in South America, Asia, and the Balkan Peninsula. Third, based on the existing legal/institutional framework and water resource availability upstream, further qualitative analysis evaluated the capacity to preserve overbank flows given future streamflow changes due to dam construction and climate change. Results indicate hotspots of vulnerability exist, especially in northern Africa and the Persian Gulf.

Holocaust Exposure Induced Intergenerational Effects on FKBP5 Methylation.

PubMed

Yehuda, Rachel; Daskalakis, Nikolaos P; Bierer, Linda M; Bader, Heather N; Klengel, Torsten; Holsboer, Florian; Binder, Elisabeth B

2016-09-01

The involvement of epigenetic mechanisms in intergenerational transmission of stress effects has been demonstrated in animals but not in humans. Cytosine methylation within the gene encoding for FK506 binding protein 5 (FKBP5) was measured in Holocaust survivors (n = 32), their adult offspring (n = 22), and demographically comparable parent (n = 8) and offspring (n = 9) control subjects, respectively. Cytosine-phosphate-guanine sites for analysis were chosen based on their spatial proximity to the intron 7 glucocorticoid response elements. Holocaust exposure had an effect on FKBP5 methylation that was observed in exposed parents as well in their offspring. These effects were observed at bin 3/site 6. Interestingly, in Holocaust survivors, methylation at this site was higher in comparison with control subjects, whereas in Holocaust offspring, methylation was lower. Methylation levels for exposed parents and their offspring were significantly correlated. In contrast to the findings at bin 3/site 6, offspring methylation at bin 2/sites 3 to 5 was associated with childhood physical and sexual abuse in interaction with an FKBP5 risk allele previously associated with vulnerability to psychological consequences of childhood adversity. The findings suggest the possibility of site specificity to environmental influences, as sites in bins 3 and 2 were differentially associated with parental trauma and the offspring's own childhood trauma, respectively. FKBP5 methylation averaged across the three bins examined was associated with wake-up cortisol levels, indicating functional relevance of the methylation measures. This is the first demonstration of an association of preconception parental trauma with epigenetic alterations that is evident in both exposed parent and offspring, providing potential insight into how severe psychophysiological trauma can have intergenerational effects. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Vulnerability detection using data-flow graphs and SMT solvers

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-31

concerns. The framework is modular and pipelined to allow scalable analysis on distributed systems. Our vulnerability detection framework employs machine...Design We designed the framework to be modular to enable flexible reuse and extendibility. In its current form, our framework performs the following

Near surface geophysics techniques and geomorphological approach to reconstruct the hazard cave map in historical and urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazzari, M.; Loperte, A.; Perrone, A.

2010-03-01

This work, carried out with an integrated methodological approach, focuses on the use of near surface geophysics techniques, such as ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and geomorphological analysis, in order to reconstruct the cave distribution and geometry in a urban context and, in particular, in historical centres. The interaction during recent centuries between human activity (caves excavation, birth and growth of an urban area) and the characters of the natural environment were the reasons of a progressive increase in hazard and vulnerability levels of several sites. The reconstruction of a detailed cave map distribution is the first step to define the anthropic and geomorphological hazard in urban areas, fundamental basis for planning and assessing the risk.

Scanning electron microscope investigation of the structural growth in thick sputtered coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spalvins, T.

1975-01-01

Sputtered S-Monel, silver, and 304 stainless steel coatings and molybdenum disulfide coatings were deposited on mica and metal substrates with various surface finishes to investigate the structural growth of the coating by scanning electron microscopy. The geometry and the surface morphology of the nodules are characterized. Compositional changes within the coating were analyzed by energy dispersive X-ray analysis. Defects in the surface finish act as preferential nucleation sites and form isolated overlapping and complex nodules and various unusual surface overgrowths on the coating. The nodule boundaries are very vulnerable to chemical etching and these nodules do not disappear after full annealing. Further, they have undesirable effects on mechanical properties; cracks are initiated at the nodules when the coating is stressed by mechanical forces.

Comparison among different retrofitting strategies for the vulnerability reduction of masonry bell towers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milani, Gabriele; Shehu, Rafael; Valente, Marco

2017-11-01

This paper investigates the effectiveness of reducing the seismic vulnerability of masonry towers by means of innovative and traditional strengthening techniques. The followed strategy for providing the optimal retrofitting for masonry towers subjected to seismic risk relies on preventing active failure mechanisms. These vulnerable mechanisms are pre-assigned failure patterns based on the crack patterns experienced during the past seismic events. An upper bound limit analysis strategy is found suitable to be applied for simplified tower models in their present state and the proposed retrofitted ones. Taking into consideration the variability of geometrical features and the uncertainty of the strengthening techniques, Monte Carlo simulations are implemented into the limit analysis. In this framework a wide range of idealized cases are covered by the conducted analyses. The retrofitting strategies aim to increase the shear strength and the overturning load carrying capacity in order to reduce vulnerability. This methodology gives the possibility to use different materials which can fulfill the structural implementability requirements.

In vivo Raman spectral pathology of human atherosclerosis and vulnerable plaque

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motz, Jason T.; Fitzmaurice, Maryann; Miller, Arnold; Gandhi, Saumil J.; Haka, Abigail S.; Galindo, Luis; Dasari, Ramachandra R.; Kramer, John R., Jr.; Feld, Michael S.

2006-03-01

The rupture of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaque accounts for the majority of clinically significant acute cardiovascular events. Because stability of these culprit lesions is directly related to chemical and morphological composition, Raman spectroscopy may be a useful technique for their study. Recent developments in optical fiber probe technology have allowed for the real-time in vivo Raman spectroscopic characterization of human atherosclerotic plaque demonstrated in this work. We spectroscopically examine 74 sites during carotid endarterectomy and femoral artery bypass surgeries. Of these, 34 are surgically biopsied and examined histologically. Excellent signal-to-noise ratio spectra are obtained in only 1 s and fit with an established model, demonstrating accurate tissue characterization. We also report the first evidence that Raman spectroscopy has the potential to identify vulnerable plaque, achieving a sensitivity and specificity of 79 and 85%, respectively. These initial findings indicate that Raman spectroscopy has the potential to be a clinically relevant diagnostic tool for studying cardiovascular disease.

Stepping inside the niche: microclimate data are critical for accurate assessment of species' vulnerability to climate change

PubMed Central

Storlie, Collin; Merino-Viteri, Andres; Phillips, Ben; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Welbergen, Justin; Williams, Stephen

2014-01-01

To assess a species' vulnerability to climate change, we commonly use mapped environmental data that are coarsely resolved in time and space. Coarsely resolved temperature data are typically inaccurate at predicting temperatures in microhabitats used by an organism and may also exhibit spatial bias in topographically complex areas. One consequence of these inaccuracies is that coarsely resolved layers may predict thermal regimes at a site that exceed species' known thermal limits. In this study, we use statistical downscaling to account for environmental factors and develop high-resolution estimates of daily maximum temperatures for a 36 000 km2 study area over a 38-year period. We then demonstrate that this statistical downscaling provides temperature estimates that consistently place focal species within their fundamental thermal niche, whereas coarsely resolved layers do not. Our results highlight the need for incorporation of fine-scale weather data into species' vulnerability analyses and demonstrate that a statistical downscaling approach can yield biologically relevant estimates of thermal regimes. PMID:25252835

Whole Genome DNA Methylation Analysis of Obstructive Sleep Apnea: IL1R2, NPR2, AR, SP140 Methylation and Clinical Phenotype.

PubMed

Chen, Yung-Che; Chen, Ting-Wen; Su, Mao-Chang; Chen, Chung-Jen; Chen, Kuang-Den; Liou, Chia-Wei; Tang, Petrus; Wang, Ting-Ya; Chang, Jen-Chieh; Wang, Chin-Chou; Lin, Hsin-Ching; Chin, Chien-Hung; Huang, Kuo-Tung; Lin, Meng-Chih; Hsiao, Chang-Chun

2016-04-01

We hypothesized that DNA methylation patterns may contribute to disease severity or the development of hypertension and excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Illumina's (San Diego, CA, USA) DNA methylation 27-K assay was used to identify differentially methylated loci (DML). DNA methylation levels were validated by pyrosequencing. A discovery cohort of 15 patients with OSA and 6 healthy subjects, and a validation cohort of 72 patients with sleep disordered breathing (SDB). Microarray analysis identified 636 DMLs in patients with OSA versus healthy subjects, and 327 DMLs in patients with OSA and hypertension versus those without hypertension. In the validation cohort, no significant difference in DNA methylation levels of six selected genes was found between the primary snoring subjects and OSA patients (primary outcome). However, a secondary outcome analysis showed that interleukin-1 receptor 2 (IL1R2) promoter methylation (-114 cytosine followed by guanine dinucleotide sequence [CpG] site) was decreased and IL1R2 protein levels were increased in the patients with SDB with an oxygen desaturation index > 30. Androgen receptor (AR) promoter methylation (-531 CpG site) and AR protein levels were both increased in the patients with SDB with an oxygen desaturation index > 30. Natriuretic peptide receptor 2 (NPR2) promoter methylation (-608/-618 CpG sites) were decreased, whereas levels of both NPR2 and serum C type natriuretic peptide protein were increased in the SDB patients with EDS. Speckled protein 140 (SP140) promoter methylation (-194 CpG site) was increased, and SP140 protein levels were decreased in the patients with SDB and EDS. IL1R2 hypomethylation and AR hypermethylation may constitute an important determinant of disease severity, whereas NPR2 hypomethylation and SP140 hypermethylation may provide a biomarker for vulnerability to EDS in OSA. A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 723. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

National Cancer Institute Patient Navigation Research Program: methods, protocol, and measures.

PubMed

Freund, Karen M; Battaglia, Tracy A; Calhoun, Elizabeth; Dudley, Donald J; Fiscella, Kevin; Paskett, Electra; Raich, Peter C; Roetzheim, Richard G

2008-12-15

Patient, provider, and systems barriers contribute to delays in cancer care, a lower quality of care, and poorer outcomes in vulnerable populations, including low-income, underinsured, and racial/ethnic minority populations. Patient navigation is emerging as an intervention to address this problem, but navigation requires a clear definition and a rigorous testing of its effectiveness. Pilot programs have provided some evidence of benefit, but have been limited by evaluation of single-site interventions and varying definitions of navigation. To overcome these limitations, a 9-site National Cancer Institute Patient Navigation Research Program (PNRP) was initiated. The PNRP is charged with designing, implementing, and evaluating a generalizable patient navigation program targeting vulnerable populations. Through a formal committee structure, the PNRP has developed a definition of patient navigation and metrics to assess the process and outcomes of patient navigation in diverse settings, compared with concurrent continuous control groups. The PNRP defines patient navigation as support and guidance offered to vulnerable persons with abnormal cancer screening or a cancer diagnosis, with the goal of overcoming barriers to timely, quality care. Primary outcomes of the PNRP are 1) time to diagnostic resolution; 2) time to initiation of cancer treatment; 3) patient satisfaction with care; and 4) cost effectiveness, for breast, cervical, colon/rectum, and/or prostate cancer. The metrics to assess the processes and outcomes of patient navigation have been developed for the NCI-sponsored PNRP. If the metrics are found to be valid and reliable, they may prove useful to other investigators.

Netwar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keen, Arthur A.

2006-04-01

This paper describes technology being developed at 21st Century Technologies to automate Computer Network Operations (CNO). CNO refers to DoD activities related to Attacking and Defending Computer Networks (CNA & CND). Next generation cyber threats are emerging in the form of powerful Internet services and tools that automate intelligence gathering, planning, testing, and surveillance. We will focus on "Search-Engine Hacks", queries that can retrieve lists of router/switch/server passwords, control panels, accessible cameras, software keys, VPN connection files, and vulnerable web applications. Examples include "Titan Rain" attacks against DoD facilities and the Santy worm, which identifies vulnerable sites by searching Google for URLs containing application-specific strings. This trend will result in increasingly sophisticated and automated intelligence-driven cyber attacks coordinated across multiple domains that are difficult to defeat or even understand with current technology. One traditional method of CNO relies on surveillance detection as an attack predictor. Unfortunately, surveillance detection is difficult because attackers can perform search engine-driven surveillance such as with Google Hacks, and avoid touching the target site. Therefore, attack observables represent only about 5% of the attacker's total attack time, and are inadequate to provide warning. In order to predict attacks and defend against them, CNO must also employ more sophisticated techniques and work to understand the attacker's Motives, Means and Opportunities (MMO). CNO must use automated reconnaissance tools, such as Google, to identify information vulnerabilities, and then utilize Internet tools to observe the intelligence gathering, planning, testing, and collaboration activities that represent 95% of the attacker's effort.

An holistic view on aquifer vulnerability based on a distinction of different types of vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Luca, Domenico Antonio; Lasagna, Manuela; Franchino, Elisa

2016-04-01

AN HOLISTIC VIEW ON AQUIFER VULNERABILITY BASED ON A DISTINCTION OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF VULNERABILITY D.A. De Luca1 , M. Lasagna1, E. Franchino1 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin The concept of vulnerability is certainly useful in the field of groundwater protection. Nevertheless, within the scientific community, the definition of groundwater vulnerability is still debatable and not clear and conclusive. This is probably due to the fact that researchers often have very different experiences and education. A positive effect of it is a constant exchange of ideas, but there are also negative consequences and difficulties in deepening the issue. The different approaches are very important but they are usable only if the concept of vulnerability is standardized: thus, for the sake of clarity, a number of definitions should be laid down, based on the different types of vulnerability. These definitions can then provide the necessary holistic view for the aquifer vulnerability assessment. Nowadays vulnerability methods focus on the degree of vulnerability and the parameters needed for its evaluation, often neglecting to clarify what is the type of vulnerability the proposed methods are referred. The type of vulnerability, indeed, is both logically and hierarchically superior to the degree of vulnerability. More specifically the type of vulnerability represents the evaluation of the hydrogeological conditions considered in the vulnerability assessment and able to influence the way in which the contamination can take place. Currently the only distinction, based on of the type of vulnerability, is referred to intrinsic and specific vulnerability. Intrinsic vulnerability assesses the susceptibility of the receptor based on the natural properties of the land and subsurface; specific vulnerability also includes properties of the analyzed contaminant. This distinction is useful but not exhaustive. In addition to this, e.g., a distinction of vertical vulnerability and lateral (or horizontal) vulnerability could be very useful; generally parametric vulnerability methods only take into account the protection degree offered by the overlying lithology, considering a vertical travel pathway for the contaminant. These methods normally neglect horizontal pathway (pollution transport in groundwater according to the hydraulic gradient), so we can have an underestimation of the possible vulnerability. The distinction, the analysis and the definition of different types of vulnerability might be positive to stimulate discussion and have a number of advantages, such as: - to improve the clarity of the conditions of employment of a method, benefiting above all end-users and stakeholders; - to improve the ability to compare methods for the assessment of the degree of vulnerability; - to improve the ability to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Coastal dynamics studies for evaluation of hazard and vulnerability for coastal erosion. case study the town La Bocana, Buenaventura, colombian pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo; Ricaurte-Villota, Constanza

2015-04-01

The analysis of the hazard and vulnerability in coastal areas caused for erosion is based on studies of coastal dynamics since that allows having a better information detail that is useful for decision-making in aspects like prevention, mitigation, disaster reduction and integrated risk management. The Town of La Bocana, located in Buenaventura (Colombian Pacific) was selected to carry out the threat assessment for coastal erosion based on three components: i) magnitude, ii) occurrence and iii) susceptibility. Vulnerability meanwhile, is also composed of three main components for its evaluation: i) exposure ii) fragility and iii) resilience, which in turn are evaluated in 6 dimensions of vulnerability: physical, social, economic, ecological, institutional and cultural. The hazard analysis performed used a semi-quantitative approach, and an index of variables such as type of geomorphological unit, type of beach, exposure of the surfing coast, occurrence, among others. Quantitative data of coastal retreat was measured through the use of DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System) an application of ArcGIS, as well as the development of digital elevation models from the beach and 6 beach profiles strategically located on the coast obtained with GNSS technology. Sediment samples collected from these beaches, medium height and wave direction were used as complementary data. The information was integrated across the coast line into segments of 250 x 250 meters. 4 sectors are part of the coastal area of La Bocana: Pianguita, Vistahermosa, Donwtown and Shangay. 6 vulnerability dimensions units were taken from these population, as well as its density for exposure, wich was analyzed through a multi-array method that include variables such as, land use, population, type of structure, education, basic services, among others, to measure frailty, and their respective indicator of resilience. The hazard analysis results indicate that Vistahermosa is in very high threat, while Donwtown and Pianguita are in a medium hazard. Particularly these two sectors have the mayor population density and the biggest hotel development and services infraestructure; meanwhile Shangay was scored with low hazard because the wave action has no direct impact on it. Vulnerability analysis suggest that the sector of Shangay has a very high vulnerability status because it is a sector that does not have any basic services and have low levels of schooling, meanwhile Downtown, Vistahermosa and Pianguita are in the average of vulnerability. Additionally, it was determined that in recent years the sector of Vista hermosa the erosion rates are up to -xx m yr-1, while in other sectors the regression of the coastline can be associated with local tidal peaks that occur during April and October, while other months of the year are typically for recovery and stability processes.

Maxillofacial Injuries as Markers of Interpersonal Violence in Belo Horizonte-Brazil: Analysis of the Socio-Spatial Vulnerability of the Location of Victim’s Residences

PubMed Central

Silva, Carlos José de Paula; Moura, Ana Clara Mourão; Paiva, Paula Cristina Pelli; Ferreira, Raquel Conceição; Silvestrini, Rafaella Almeida; Vargas, Andréa Maria Duarte; de Paula, Liliam Pacheco Pinto; Naves, Marcelo Drummond; Ferreira, Efigênia Ferreira e

2015-01-01

The aim of the present study was to analyze the spatial pattern of cases of maxillofacial injuries caused by interpersonal violence, based on the location of the victim’s residence, and to investigate the existence of conditions of socio-spatial vulnerability in these areas. This is a cross-sectional study, using the data of victims attended in three emergency hospitals in Belo Horizonte-Brazil between January 2008 and December 2010. Based on the process of spatial signature, the socio-spatial condition of the victims was identified according to data from census tracts. The spatial distribution trends of the addresses of victims were analyzed using Kernel maps and Ripley’s K function. Multicriteria analysis was used to analyze the territorial insertion of victims, using a combination of variables to obtain the degree of socio-spatial vulnerability. The residences of the victims were distributed in an aggregated manner in urban areas, with a confidence level of 99%. The highest densities were found in areas of unfavorable socioeconomic conditions and, to a lesser extent, areas with worse residential and neighborhood infrastructure. Spatial clusters of households formed in slums with a significant level of socio-spatial vulnerability. Explanations of the living conditions in segregated urban areas and analysis of the concentration of more vulnerable populations should be a priority in the development of public health and safety policies. PMID:26274320

Evaluation of Regional Vulnerability to Disasters by People of Ishikawa, Japan: A Cross Sectional Study Using National Health Insurance Data

PubMed Central

Fujiu, Makoto; Morisaki, Yuma; Takayama, Junichi; Yanagihara, Kiyoko; Nishino, Tatsuya; Sagae, Masahiko; Hirako, Kohei

2018-01-01

The 2013 Partial Amendment of the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Law mandated that a roster of vulnerable persons during disasters be created, and further development of evacuation support is expected. In this study, the number of vulnerable people living in target analytical areas are identified in terms of neighborhood units by using the National Health Insurance Database to create a realistic and efficient evacuation support plan. Later, after considering the “vulnerability” of an area to earthquake disaster damage, a quantitative evaluation of the state of the disaster is performed using a principle component analysis that further divided the analytical target areas into neighborhood units to make a detailed determination of the number of disaster-vulnerable persons, the severity of the disaster, etc. The results of the disaster evaluation performed after considering the vulnerability of an area are that 628 disaster-vulnerable persons live in areas with a relatively higher disaster evaluation value. PMID:29534021

Relational vulnerabilities of incarcerated and reentry mothers: therapeutic implications.

PubMed

Few-Demo, April L; Arditti, Joyce A

2014-11-01

A qualitative study involving a follow-up interview with 10 incarcerated and reentry mothers in rural southwest and central Virginia was conducted to explore the influence that women's close relationships have on their reentry experiences with their families. The Vulnerability Conceptual Model (VCM) was used to sensitize an examination of how incarcerated and reentry mothers negotiate relational vulnerabilities in the context of varying situational vulnerability. Grounded theory analysis revealed three themes that characterized relational vulnerabilities. Given our focus on close relationships and the potential of the VCM to identify opportunities for resilience and vulnerability, we highlighted the influence of ambiguous and ambivalent relationships and unresolved loss and grief due to relationship dissolution or the death of a parent, sibling, child, or intimate partner in the reentry process. The data revealed two types of reentry mothers with divergent trajectories for social reintegration. Implications of these types for therapeutic treatment approaches for reentry women are discussed. © The Author(s) 2013.

Sri Dalada Maligawa - 3D-Scanning and Documentation of the Temple of the Sacred Tooth Relic at Kandy, Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahrig, M.; Luib, A.

2017-08-01

Sri Dalada Maligawa - the Temple of the Sacred Tooth Relic - is one of the most important pilgrim sites in Buddhist culture. It is the main part of the UNESCO World Heritage Site Sacred City of Kandy. Since the end of the 17th century the temple has been keeping the sacred tooth of the Buddha. Until now an accurate documentation of the temple with all its rich decorations is missing. The Temple is built in an area vulnerable to environmental factors like earthquakes or monsoon rains and was the target of terrorist attacks. To help preserving this important cultural heritage a research project was carried out. Main part of the project was a 3D-documentation of the entire temple by using Terrestrial-Laser-Scanning (TLS) and the creating of CAD-Plans. In addition to the documentation of the architecture several details were taken in high resolution by Structured-Light-Scanning (SLS). All data will be part of the digital archive of the temple and were used as a base for a general site monitoring, especially to observe cracks. Next to the mere documentation a transfer of knowledge was another aim of the project. In future most of the analysis of the scan data can be done by local specialists.

Epigenetic alterations of the BDNF gene in combat-related post-traumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Kim, T Y; Kim, S J; Chung, H G; Choi, J H; Kim, S H; Kang, J I

2017-02-01

Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) plays a crucial role in modulating resilience and vulnerability to stress. The aim of this study was to investigate whether epigenetic regulation of the BDNF gene is a biomarker of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) development among veterans exposed to combat in the Vietnam War. Using the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale, combat veterans were grouped into those with (n = 126) and without (n = 122) PTSD. DNA methylation levels at four CpG sites within the BDNF promoter I region were quantified in the peripheral blood using pyrosequencing. The effects of BDNF DNA methylation levels and clinical variables on the diagnosis of PTSD were tested using binary logistic regression analysis. Subjects with PTSD showed a higher DNA methylation of four CpG sites at the BDNF promoter compared with those without PTSD. High methylation levels at the BDNF promoter CpG site, high combat exposure, and alcohol problems were significantly associated with PTSD diagnosis. This study demonstrated an association between higher DNA methylation of the BDNF promoter and PTSD diagnosis in combat-exposed individuals. Our findings suggest that altered BDNF methylation may be a valuable biomarker of PTSD after trauma exposure. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Shape and Site Dependent in Vivo Degradation of Mg-Zn Pins in Rabbit Femoral Condyle

PubMed Central

Han, Pei; Tan, Moyan; Zhang, Shaoxiang; Ji, Weiping; Li, Jianan; Zhang, Xiaonong; Zhao, Changli; Zheng, Yufeng; Chai, Yimin

2014-01-01

A type of specially designed pin model of Mg-Zn alloy was implanted into the full thickness of lesions of New Zealand rabbits’ femoral condyles. The recovery progress, outer surface healing and in vivo degradation were characterized by various methods including radiographs, Micro-CT scan with surface rendering, SEM (scanning electron microscope) with EDX (Energy Dispersive X-ray analysis) and so on. The in vivo results suggested that a few but not sufficient bridges for holding force were formed between the bone and the implant if there was a preexisting gap between them. The rapid degradation of the implantation in the condyle would result in the appearance of cavities. Morphological evaluation of the specially designed pins indicated that the cusp was the most vulnerable part during degradation. Furthermore, different implantation sites with distinct components and biological functions can lead to different degradation rates of Mg-Zn alloy. The rate of Mg-Zn alloy decreases in the following order: implantation into soft tissue, less trabecular bone, more trabecular bone, and cortical bone. Because of the complexities of in vivo degradation, it is necessary for the design of biomedical Mg-Zn devices to take into consideration the implantation sites used in clinics. PMID:24566138

Microzonation Mapping Of The Yanbu Industrial City, Western Saudi Arabia: A Multicriteria Decision Analysis Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moustafa, Sayed, Sr.; Alarifi, Nassir S.; Lashin, Aref A.

2016-04-01

Urban areas along the western coast of Saudi Arabia are susceptible to natural disasters and environmental damages due to lack of planning. To produce a site-specific microzonation map of the rapidly growing Yanbu industrial city, spatial distribution of different hazard entities are assessed using the Analytical Hierarchal Process (AHP) together with Geographical Information System (GIS). For this purpose six hazard parameter layers are considered, namely; fundamental frequency, site amplification, soil strength in terms of effective shear-wave velocity, overburden sediment thickness, seismic vulnerability index and peak ground acceleration. The weight and rank values are determined during AHP and are assigned to each layer and its corresponding classes, respectively. An integrated seismic microzonation map was derived using GIS platform. Based on the derived map, the study area is classified into five hazard categories: very low, low, moderate high, and very high. The western and central parts of the study area, as indicated from the derived microzonation map, are categorized as a high hazard zone as compared to other surrounding places. The produced microzonation map of the current study is envisaged as a first-level assessment of the site specific hazards in the Yanbu city area, which can be used as a platform by different stakeholders in any future land-use planning and environmental hazard management.

Development of a decision support system to manage contamination in marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Dagnino, A; Viarengo, A

2014-01-01

In recent years, contamination and its interaction with climate-change variables have been recognized as critical stressors in coastal areas, emphasizing the need for a standardized framework encompassing chemical and biological data into risk indices to support decision-making. We therefore developed an innovative, expert decision support system (Exp-DSS) for the management of contamination in marine coastal ecosystems. The Exp-DSS has two main applications: (i) to determine environmental risk and biological vulnerability in contaminated sites; and (ii) to support the management of waters and sediments by assessing the risk due to the exposure of biota to these matrices. The Exp-DSS evaluates chemical data, both as single compounds and as total toxic pressure of the mixture, to compare concentrations to effect-based thresholds (TELs and PELs). Sites are then placed into three categories of contamination: uncontaminated, mildly contaminated, and highly contaminated. In highly contaminated sites, effects on high-level ecotoxicological endpoints (i.e. survival and reproduction) are used to determine risk at the organism-population level, while ecological parameters (i.e. alterations in community structure and ecosystem functions) are considered for assessing effects on biodiversity. Changes in sublethal biomarkers are utilized to assess the stress level of the organisms in mildly contaminated sites. In Triad studies, chemical concentrations, ecotoxicological high-level effects, and ecological data are combined to determine the level of environmental risk in highly contaminated sites; chemical concentration and ecotoxicological sublethal effects are evaluated to determine biological vulnerability in mildly contaminated sites. The Exp-DSS was applied to data from the literature about sediment quality in estuarine areas of Spain, and ranked risks related to exposure to contaminated sediments from high risk (Huelva estuary) to mild risk (Guadalquivir estuary and Bay of Cadiz). A spreadsheet-based version of the Exp-DSS is available at the MEECE and DiSIT web sites (www.meece.eu and www.disit.unipmn.it). © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Macrophage inflammatory protein-1α shows predictive value as a risk marker for subjects and sites vulnerable to bone loss in a longitudinal model of aggressive periodontitis.

PubMed

Fine, Daniel H; Markowitz, Kenneth; Fairlie, Karen; Tischio-Bereski, Debbie; Ferrandiz, Javier; Godboley, Dipti; Furgang, David; Gunsolley, John; Best, Al

2014-01-01

Improved diagnostics remains a fundamental goal of biomedical research. This study was designed to assess cytokine biomarkers that could predict bone loss (BL) in localized aggressive periodontitis. 2,058 adolescents were screened. Two groups of 50 periodontally healthy adolescents were enrolled in the longitudinal study. One group had Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans (Aa), the putative pathogen, while the matched cohort did not. Cytokine levels were assessed in saliva and gingival crevicular fluid (GCF). Participants were sampled, examined, and radiographed every 6 months for 2-3 years. Disease was defined as radiographic evidence of BL. Saliva and GCF was collected at each visit, frozen, and then tested retrospectively after detection of BL. Sixteen subjects with Aa developed BL. Saliva from Aa-positive and Aa-negative healthy subjects was compared to subjects who developed BL. GCF was collected from 16 subjects with BL and from another 38 subjects who remained healthy. GCF from BL sites in the 16 subjects was compared to healthy sites in these same subjects and to healthy sites in subjects who remained healthy. Results showed that cytokines in saliva associated with acute inflammation were elevated in subjects who developed BL (i.e., MIP-1α MIP-1β IL-α, IL-1β and IL-8; p<0.01). MIP-1α was elevated 13-fold, 6 months prior to BL. When MIP-1α levels were set at 40 pg/ml, 98% of healthy sites were below that level (Specificity); whereas, 93% of sites with BL were higher (Sensitivity), with comparable Predictive Values of 98%; p<0.0001; 95% C.I. = 42.5-52.7). MIP-1α consistently showed elevated levels as a biomarker for BL in both saliva and GCF, 6 months prior to BL. MIP-1α continues to demonstrate its strong candidacy as a diagnostic biomarker for both subject and site vulnerability to BL.

Health and vulnerability to poverty in Ghana: evidence from the Ghana Living Standards Survey Round 5

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background An understanding of the complex relationship between health status and welfare is crucial for critical policy interventions. However, the focus of most policies in developing regions has been on current welfare to the neglect of forward-looking welfare analysis. The absence of adequate research in the area of future poverty or vulnerability to poverty has also contributed to the focus on current welfare. The objectives of this study were to estimate vulnerability to poverty among households in Ghana and examine the relationship between health status and vulnerability to poverty. Method The study used cross section data from the Fifth Round of the Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS 5) with a nationally representative sample of 8,687 households from all administrative regions in Ghana. A three-step Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimation procedure was employed to estimate vulnerability to poverty and to model the effect of health status on expected future consumption and variations in future consumption. Vulnerability to poverty estimates were also examined against various household characteristics. Results Using an upper poverty line, the estimates of vulnerability show that about 56% of households in Ghana are vulnerable to poverty in the future and this is higher than the currently observed poverty level of about 29%. Households with ill members were vulnerable to poverty. Moreover, households with poor hygiene conditions were also vulnerable to future poverty. The vulnerability to poverty estimates were, however, sensitive to the poverty line used and varied with household characteristics. Conclusion The results imply that policies directed towards poverty reduction need to take into account the vulnerability of households to future poverty. Also, hygienic conditions and health status of households need not be overlooked in poverty reduction strategies. PMID:22827954

Informality and employment vulnerability: application in sellers with subsistence work.

PubMed

Garzón-Duque, María Osley; Cardona-Arango, María Doris; Rodríguez-Ospina, Fabio León; Segura-Cardona, Angela María

2017-10-05

To describe the origin, evolution, and application of the concept of employment vulnerability in workers who subsist on street sales. We have carried out an analysis of the literature in database in Spanish, Portuguese, and English, without restriction by country. This is a review of the gray literature of government reports, articles, and documents from Latin America and the Caribbean. We have analyzed information on the informal economy, social-employment vulnerability, and subsistence workers. The concept of informal economy is dispersed and suggested as synonymous with employment vulnerability. As a polysemic term, it generates confusion and difficulty in identifying defined profiles of employment vulnerability in informal subsistence workers, who sell their products on the streets and sidewalks of cities. The lack of a clear concept and profile of employment vulnerability for this type of workers generates a restriction on defined actions to reduce employment vulnerability. The profiles could facilitate access to the acquisition of assets that support their structure of opportunities, facilitating and mediating in the passage from vulnerability to social mobility with opportunities. We propose as a concept of employment vulnerability for subsistence workers in the informal sector, the condition of those who must work by day to eat at night, who have little or no ownership of assets, and who have a minimum structure of opportunities to prevent, face, and resist the critical situations that occur daily, putting at risk their subsistence and that of the persons who are their responsibility, thus making the connection between social and employment vulnerability.

County-level heat vulnerability of urban and rural residents in Tibet, China.

PubMed

Bai, Li; Woodward, Alistair; Cirendunzhu; Liu, Qiyong

2016-01-12

Tibet is especially vulnerable to climate change due to the relatively rapid rise of temperature over past decades. The effects on mortality and morbidity of extreme heat in Tibet have been examined in previous studies; no heat adaptation initiatives have yet been implemented. We estimated heat vulnerability of urban and rural populations in 73 Tibetan counties and identified potential areas for public health intervention and further research. According to data availability and vulnerability factors identified previously in Tibet and elsewhere, we selected 10 variables related to advanced age, low income, illiteracy, physical and mental disability, small living spaces and living alone. We separately created and mapped county-level cumulative heat vulnerability indices for urban and rural residents by summing up factor scores produced by a principal components analysis (PCA). For both study populations, PCA yielded four factors with similar structure. The components for rural and urban residents explained 76.5 % and 77.7 % respectively of the variability in the original vulnerability variables. We found spatial variability of heat vulnerability across counties, with generally higher vulnerability in high-altitude counties. Although we observed similar median values and ranges of the cumulative heat vulnerability index values among urban and rural residents overall, the pattern varied strongly from one county to another. We have developed a measure of population vulnerability to high temperatures in Tibet. These are preliminary findings, but they may assist targeted adaptation plans in response to future rapid warming in Tibet.

Grid Transmission Expansion Planning Model Based on Grid Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Quan; Wang, Xi; Li, Ting; Zhang, Quanming; Zhang, Hongli; Li, Huaqiang

2018-03-01

Based on grid vulnerability and uniformity theory, proposed global network structure and state vulnerability factor model used to measure different grid models. established a multi-objective power grid planning model which considering the global power network vulnerability, economy and grid security constraint. Using improved chaos crossover and mutation genetic algorithm to optimize the optimal plan. For the problem of multi-objective optimization, dimension is not uniform, the weight is not easy given. Using principal component analysis (PCA) method to comprehensive assessment of the population every generation, make the results more objective and credible assessment. the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model are validated by simulation results of Garver-6 bus system and Garver-18 bus.

Condition index monitoring supports conservation priorities for the protection of threatened grass-finch populations

PubMed Central

French, Kristine; Legge, Sarah; Astheimer, Lee; Garnett, Stephen

2015-01-01

Abstract Conservation agencies are often faced with the difficult task of prioritizing what recovery actions receive support. With the number of species under threat of decline growing globally, research that informs conservation priorities is greatly needed. The relative vulnerability of cryptic or nomadic species is often uncertain, because populations are difficult to monitor and local populations often seem stable in the short term. This uncertainty can lead to inaction when populations are in need of protection. We tested the feasibility of using differences in condition indices as an indication of population vulnerability to decline for related threatened Australian finch sub-species. The Gouldian finch represents a relatively well-studied endangered species, which has a seasonal and site-specific pattern of condition index variation that differs from the closely related non-declining long-tailed finch. We used Gouldian and long-tailed finch condition variation as a model to compare with lesser studied, threatened star and black-throated finches. We compared body condition (fat and muscle scores), haematocrit and stress levels (corticosterone) among populations, seasons and years to determine whether lesser studied finch populations matched the model of an endangered species or a non-declining species. While vulnerable finch populations often had lower muscle and higher fat and corticosterone concentrations during moult (seasonal pattern similar to Gouldian finches), haematocrit values did not differ among populations in a predictable way. Star and black-throated finch populations, which were predicted to be vulnerable to decline, showed evidence of poor condition during moult, supporting their status as vulnerable. Our findings highlight how measures of condition can provide insight into the relative vulnerability of animal and plant populations to decline and will allow the prioritization of efforts towards the populations most likely to be in jeopardy of extinction. PMID:27293710

Condition index monitoring supports conservation priorities for the protection of threatened grass-finch populations.

PubMed

Maute, Kimberly; French, Kristine; Legge, Sarah; Astheimer, Lee; Garnett, Stephen

2015-01-01

Conservation agencies are often faced with the difficult task of prioritizing what recovery actions receive support. With the number of species under threat of decline growing globally, research that informs conservation priorities is greatly needed. The relative vulnerability of cryptic or nomadic species is often uncertain, because populations are difficult to monitor and local populations often seem stable in the short term. This uncertainty can lead to inaction when populations are in need of protection. We tested the feasibility of using differences in condition indices as an indication of population vulnerability to decline for related threatened Australian finch sub-species. The Gouldian finch represents a relatively well-studied endangered species, which has a seasonal and site-specific pattern of condition index variation that differs from the closely related non-declining long-tailed finch. We used Gouldian and long-tailed finch condition variation as a model to compare with lesser studied, threatened star and black-throated finches. We compared body condition (fat and muscle scores), haematocrit and stress levels (corticosterone) among populations, seasons and years to determine whether lesser studied finch populations matched the model of an endangered species or a non-declining species. While vulnerable finch populations often had lower muscle and higher fat and corticosterone concentrations during moult (seasonal pattern similar to Gouldian finches), haematocrit values did not differ among populations in a predictable way. Star and black-throated finch populations, which were predicted to be vulnerable to decline, showed evidence of poor condition during moult, supporting their status as vulnerable. Our findings highlight how measures of condition can provide insight into the relative vulnerability of animal and plant populations to decline and will allow the prioritization of efforts towards the populations most likely to be in jeopardy of extinction.

Emergency Preparedness Among People Living Near US Army Chemical Weapons Sites After September 11, 2001

PubMed Central

Williams, Bryan L.; Magsumbol, Melina S.

2007-01-01

We examined trust in the army and perceptions of emergency preparedness among residents living near the Anniston, Ala, and Richmond, Ky, US Army chemical weapons stockpile sites shortly after September 11, 2001. Residents (n = 655) living near the 2 sites who participated in a cross-sectional population were relatively unprepared in the event of a chemical emergency. The events of September 11 gave rise to concerns regarding the security of stored chemical weapons and the sites’ vulnerability to terrorist attacks. Although residents expressed trust in the army to manage chemical weapons safely, only a few expressed a desire to actively participate in site decisions. Compliance with procedures during emergencies could be seriously limited, putting residents in these sites at higher levels of risk of exposure to chemical hazards than nonresidents. PMID:17666684

Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

2015-04-01

Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare traditional vulnerability distributions with more recent conceptualisation of risks, more research should be devoted to global assessments of climate change risk distributions.

Seismic hazard and risk assessment for large Romanian dams situated in the Moldavian Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Petruta Constantin, Angela; Toma Danila, Dragos; Borleanu, Felix; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Moldoveanu, Traian

2016-04-01

Besides periodical technical inspections, the monitoring and the surveillance of dams' related structures and infrastructures, there are some more seismic specific requirements towards dams' safety. The most important one is the seismic risk assessment that can be accomplished by rating the dams into seismic risk classes using the theory of Bureau and Ballentine (2002), and Bureau (2003), taking into account the maximum expected peak ground motions at the dams site - values obtained using probabilistic hazard assessment approaches (Moldovan et al., 2008), the structures vulnerability and the downstream risk characteristics (human, economical, historic and cultural heritage, etc) in the areas that might be flooded in the case of a dam failure. Probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH), vulnerability and risk studies for dams situated in the Moldavian Platform, starting from Izvorul Muntelui Dam, down on Bistrita and following on Siret River and theirs affluent will be realized. The most vulnerable dams will be studied in detail and flooding maps will be drawn to find the most exposed downstream localities both for risk assessment studies and warnings. GIS maps that clearly indicate areas that are potentially flooded are enough for these studies, thus giving information on the number of inhabitants and goods that may be destroyed. Geospatial servers included topography is sufficient to achieve them, all other further studies are not necessary for downstream risk assessment. The results will consist of local and regional seismic information, dams specific characteristics and locations, seismic hazard maps and risk classes, for all dams sites (for more than 30 dams), inundation maps (for the most vulnerable dams from the region) and possible affected localities. The studies realized in this paper have as final goal to provide the local emergency services with warnings of a potential dam failure and ensuing flood as a result of an large earthquake occurrence, allowing further public training for evacuation. The work is supported from PNII/PCCA 2013 Project DARING 69/2014, financed by UEFISCDI, Romania. Bureau GJ (2003) "Dams and appurtenant facilities" Earthquake Engineering Handbook, CRS Press, WF Chen, and C Scawthorn (eds.), Boca Raton, pp. 26.1-26.47. Bureau GJ and Ballentine GD (2002) "A comprehensive seismic vulnerability and loss assessment of the State of Carolina using HAZUS. Part IV: Dam inventory and vulnerability assessment methodology", 7th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, July 21-25, Boston, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, CA. Moldovan IA, Popescu E, Constantin A (2008), "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Romania: application for crustal seismic active zones", Romanian Journal of Physics, Vol.53, Nos. 3-4

Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones

PubMed Central

Huai, Jianjun

2016-01-01

Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an “integrative typology” of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the “5W1H” questions: “Who is concerned about how to adapt to the vulnerability of what to what in some place (where) at some time (when)?” Using the case of the vulnerability of wheat, barley and oats to drought in Australian wheat sheep zones during 1978–1999, I answer the “5W1H” questions through establishing the “six typologies” framework. I then optimize the measurement of vulnerability through contrasting twelve kinds of vulnerability scores with the divergence of crops yields from their regional mean. Through identifying the socioeconomic constraints, I propose seven generic types of crop-drought vulnerability and local adaptive strategy. Our results illustrate that the process of assessing vulnerability and selecting adaptations can be enhanced using a combination of integration, optimization and typology, which emphasize dynamic transitions and transformations between integration and typology. PMID:27670975

Silvicultural applications: Restoring ecological structure and process in ponderosa pine forests

Treesearch

Carl E. Fiedler

1996-01-01

A primary goal of restoration treatments in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)/fir forests is to create more open stand structures, thereby improving tree vigor and reducing vulnerability to insects, disease, and severe fire. An additional goal in some stands is to manipulate existing species composition and site conditions to favor regeneration of...