Continuous and Discrete Structured Population Models with Applications to Epidemiology and Marine Mammals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tingting

In this dissertation, we develop structured population models to examine how changes in the environmental affect population processes. In Chapter 2, we develop a general continuous time size structured model describing a susceptible-infected (SI) population coupled with the environment. This model applies to problems arising in ecology, epidemiology, and cell biology. The model consists of a system of quasilinear hyperbolic partial differential equations coupled with a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations that represent the environment. We develop a second-order high resolution finite difference scheme to numerically solve the model. Convergence of this scheme to a weak solution with bounded total variation is proved. We numerically compare the second order high resolution scheme with a first order finite difference scheme. Higher order of convergence and high resolution property are observed in the second order finite difference scheme. In addition, we apply our model to a multi-host wildlife disease problem, questions regarding the impact of the initial population structure and transition rate within each host are numerically explored. In Chapter 3, we use a stage structured matrix model for wildlife population to study the recovery process of the population given an environmental disturbance. We focus on the time it takes for the population to recover to its pre-event level and develop general formulas to calculate the sensitivity or elasticity of the recovery time to changes in the initial population distribution, vital rates and event severity. Our results suggest that the recovery time is independent of the initial population size, but is sensitive to the initial population structure. Moreover, it is more sensitive to the reduction proportion to the vital rates of the population caused by the catastrophe event relative to the duration of impact of the event. We present the potential application of our model to the amphibian population dynamic and the recovery of a certain plant population. In addition, we explore, in details, the application of the model to the sperm whale population in Gulf of Mexico after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. In Chapter 4, we summarize the results from Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 and explore some further avenues of our research.

A kinetic theory for age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Tom; Greenman, Chris

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but they are structurally unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., carrying capacity) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a BBGKY-like hierarchy. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution. NSF.

Use of an Inverse Method for Time Series to Estimate the Dynamics of and Management Strategies for the Box Jellyfish Carybdea marsupialis.

PubMed

Bordehore, Cesar; Fuentes, Verónica L; Segarra, Jose G; Acevedo, Melisa; Canepa, Antonio; Raventós, Josep

2015-01-01

Frequently, population ecology of marine organisms uses a descriptive approach in which their sizes and densities are plotted over time. This approach has limited usefulness for design strategies in management or modelling different scenarios. Population projection matrix models are among the most widely used tools in ecology. Unfortunately, for the majority of pelagic marine organisms, it is difficult to mark individuals and follow them over time to determine their vital rates and built a population projection matrix model. Nevertheless, it is possible to get time-series data to calculate size structure and densities of each size, in order to determine the matrix parameters. This approach is known as a "demographic inverse problem" and it is based on quadratic programming methods, but it has rarely been used on aquatic organisms. We used unpublished field data of a population of cubomedusae Carybdea marsupialis to construct a population projection matrix model and compare two different management strategies to lower population to values before year 2008 when there was no significant interaction with bathers. Those strategies were by direct removal of medusae and by reducing prey. Our results showed that removal of jellyfish from all size classes was more effective than removing only juveniles or adults. When reducing prey, the highest efficiency to lower the C. marsupialis population occurred when prey depletion affected prey of all medusae sizes. Our model fit well with the field data and may serve to design an efficient management strategy or build hypothetical scenarios such as removal of individuals or reducing prey. TThis This sdfsdshis method is applicable to other marine or terrestrial species, for which density and population structure over time are available.

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late Quaternary period were related to climate change. [Coalescent; effective population size; Gaussian Markov random fields; phylodynamics; phylogenetics; population genetics. PMID:27368344

Optimal control of Atlantic population Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauser, C.E.; Runge, M.C.; Cooch, E.G.; Johnson, F.A.; Harvey, W.F.

2007-01-01

Management of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) can be a balance between providing sustained harvest opportunity while not allowing populations to become overabundant and cause damage. In this paper, we focus on the Atlantic population of Canada geese and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal harvest strategy over a range of plausible models for population dynamics. There is evidence to suggest that the population exhibits significant age structure, and it is possible to reconstruct age structure from surveys. Consequently the harvest strategy is a function of the age composition, as well as the abundance, of the population. The objective is to maximize harvest while maintaining the number of breeding adults in the population between specified upper and lower limits. In addition, the total harvest capacity is limited and there is uncertainty about the strength of density-dependence. We find that under a density-independent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at the highest acceptable abundance. However if harvest capacity is limited, then the optimal long-term breeding population size is lower than the highest acceptable level, to reduce the risk of the population growing to an unacceptably large size. Under the proposed density-dependent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at an intermediate level between the bounds on acceptable population size; limits to harvest capacity have little effect on the optimal long-term population size. It is clear that the strength of density-dependence and constraints on harvest significantly affect the optimal harvest strategy for this population. Model discrimination might be achieved in the long term, while continuing to meet management goals, by adopting an adaptive management strategy.

Modeling of LEO Orbital Debris Populations in Centimeter and Millimeter Size Regimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Hill, . M.; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J.-C.; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.

2010-01-01

The building of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, whether ORDEM2000 or its recently updated version ORDEM2010, uses as its foundation a number of model debris populations, each truncated at a minimum object-size ranging from 10 micron to 1 m. This paper discusses the development of the ORDEM2010 model debris populations in LEO (low Earth orbit), focusing on centimeter (smaller than 10 cm) and millimeter size regimes. Primary data sets used in the statistical derivation of the cm- and mm-size model populations are from the Haystack radar operated in a staring mode. Unlike cataloged objects of sizes greater than approximately 10 cm, ground-based radars monitor smaller-size debris only in a statistical manner instead of tracking every piece. The mono-static Haystack radar can detect debris as small as approximately 5 mm at moderate LEO altitudes. Estimation of millimeter debris populations (for objects smaller than approximately 6 mm) rests largely on Goldstone radar measurements. The bi-static Goldstone radar can detect 2- to 3-mm objects. The modeling of the cm- and mm-debris populations follows the general approach to developing other ORDEM2010-required model populations for various components and types of debris. It relies on appropriate reference populations to provide necessary prior information on the orbital structures and other important characteristics of the debris objects. NASA's LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model is capable of furnishing such reference populations in the desired size range. A Bayesian statistical inference process, commonly adopted in ORDEM2010 model-population derivations, changes a priori distribution into a posteriori distribution and thus refines the reference populations in terms of data. This paper describes key elements and major steps in the statistical derivations of the cm- and mm-size debris populations and presents results. Due to lack of data for near 1-mm sizes, the model populations of 1- to 3.16-mm objects are an empirical extension from larger debris. The extension takes into account the results of micro-debris (from 10 micron to 1 mm) population modeling that is based on shuttle impact data, in the hope of making a smooth transition between micron and millimeter size regimes. This paper also includes a brief discussion on issues and potential future work concerning the analysis and interpretation of Goldstone radar data.

Model suggests potential for Porites coral population recovery after removal of anthropogenic disturbance (Luhuitou, Hainan, South China Sea).

PubMed

Zhao, Meixia; Riegl, Bernhard; Yu, Kefu; Shi, Qi; Zhang, Qiaomin; Liu, Guohui; Yang, Hongqiang; Yan, Hongqiang

2016-09-13

Population models are important for resource management and can inform about potential trajectories useful for planning purposes, even with incomplete monitoring data. From size frequency data on Luhuitou fringing reef, Hainan, South China Sea, a matrix population model of massive corals (Porites lutea) was developed and trajectories over 100 years under no disturbance and random disturbances were projected. The model reflects a largely open population of Porites lutea, with low local recruitment and preponderance of imported recruitment. Under no further disturbance, the population of Porites lutea will grow and its size structure will change from predominance of small size classes to large size classes. Therewith, total Porites cover will increase. Even under random disturbances every 10 to 20 years, the Porites population could remain viable, albeit at lower space cover. The models suggest recovery at Luhuitou following the removal of chronic anthropogenic disturbance. Extending the area of coral reef reserves to protect the open coral community and the path of connectivity is advisable and imperative for the conservation of Hainan's coral reefs.

Model suggests potential for Porites coral population recovery after removal of anthropogenic disturbance (Luhuitou, Hainan, South China Sea)

PubMed Central

Zhao, Meixia; Riegl, Bernhard; Yu, Kefu; Shi, Qi; Zhang, Qiaomin; Liu, Guohui; Yang, Hongqiang; Yan, Hongqiang

2016-01-01

Population models are important for resource management and can inform about potential trajectories useful for planning purposes, even with incomplete monitoring data. From size frequency data on Luhuitou fringing reef, Hainan, South China Sea, a matrix population model of massive corals (Porites lutea) was developed and trajectories over 100 years under no disturbance and random disturbances were projected. The model reflects a largely open population of Porites lutea, with low local recruitment and preponderance of imported recruitment. Under no further disturbance, the population of Porites lutea will grow and its size structure will change from predominance of small size classes to large size classes. Therewith, total Porites cover will increase. Even under random disturbances every 10 to 20 years, the Porites population could remain viable, albeit at lower space cover. The models suggest recovery at Luhuitou following the removal of chronic anthropogenic disturbance. Extending the area of coral reef reserves to protect the open coral community and the path of connectivity is advisable and imperative for the conservation of Hainan’s coral reefs. PMID:27622504

Investigating the effect of chemical stress and resource ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Modeling exposure and recovery of fish and wildlife populations after stressor mitigation serves as a basis for evaluating population status and remediation success. The Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems. Herein, we develop a density dependent matrix population model for Atlantic killifish that analyzes both size-structure and age class-structure of the population so that we could readily incorporate output from a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model currently under development. This population modeling approach emphasizes application in conjunction with field monitoring efforts (e.g., through effects-based monitoring programs) and/or laboratory analysis to link effects due to chemical stress to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. We applied the model using data for killifish exposed to dioxin-like compounds, taken from a previously published study. Specifically, the model was used to investigate population trajectories for Atlantic killifish with dietary exposures to 112, 296, and 875 pg/g of dioxin with effects on fertility and survival rates. All effects were expressed relative to control fish. Further, the population model was employed to examine age and size distributions of a population exposed to resource limitation in addition to chemical stress. For each dietary exposure concentration o

Size-density scaling in protists and the links between consumer-resource interaction parameters.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Vasseur, David A

2012-11-01

Recent work indicates that the interaction between body-size-dependent demographic processes can generate macroecological patterns such as the scaling of population density with body size. In this study, we evaluate this possibility for grazing protists and also test whether demographic parameters in these models are correlated after controlling for body size. We compiled data on the body-size dependence of consumer-resource interactions and population density for heterotrophic protists grazing algae in laboratory studies. We then used nested dynamic models to predict both the height and slope of the scaling relationship between population density and body size for these protists. We also controlled for consumer size and assessed links between model parameters. Finally, we used the models and the parameter estimates to assess the individual- and population-level dependence of resource use on body-size and prey-size selection. The predicted size-density scaling for all models matched closely to the observed scaling, and the simplest model was sufficient to predict the pattern. Variation around the mean size-density scaling relationship may be generated by variation in prey productivity and area of capture, but residuals are relatively insensitive to variation in prey size selection. After controlling for body size, many consumer-resource interaction parameters were correlated, and a positive correlation between residual prey size selection and conversion efficiency neutralizes the apparent fitness advantage of taking large prey. Our results indicate that widespread community-level patterns can be explained with simple population models that apply consistently across a range of sizes. They also indicate that the parameter space governing the dynamics and the steady states in these systems is structured such that some parts of the parameter space are unlikely to represent real systems. Finally, predator-prey size ratios represent a kind of conundrum, because they are widely observed but apparently have little influence on population size and fitness, at least at this level of organization. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Animal social networks as substrate for cultural behavioural diversity.

PubMed

Whitehead, Hal; Lusseau, David

2012-02-07

We used individual-based stochastic models to examine how social structure influences the diversity of socially learned behaviour within a non-human population. For continuous behavioural variables we modelled three forms of dyadic social learning, averaging the behavioural value of the two individuals, random transfer of information from one individual to the other, and directional transfer from the individual with highest behavioural value to the other. Learning had potential error. We also examined the transfer of categorical behaviour between individuals with random directionality and two forms of error, the adoption of a randomly chosen existing behavioural category or the innovation of a new type of behaviour. In populations without social structuring the diversity of culturally transmitted behaviour increased with learning error and population size. When the populations were structured socially either by making individuals members of permanent social units or by giving them overlapping ranges, behavioural diversity increased with network modularity under all scenarios, although the proportional increase varied considerably between continuous and categorical behaviour, with transmission mechanism, and population size. Although functions of the form e(c)¹(m)⁻(c)² + (c)³(Log(N)) predicted the mean increase in diversity with modularity (m) and population size (N), behavioural diversity could be highly unpredictable both between simulations with the same set of parameters, and within runs. Errors in social learning and social structuring generally promote behavioural diversity. Consequently, social learning may be considered to produce culture in populations whose social structure is sufficiently modular. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relative effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on population genetic variation in the red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis).

PubMed

Bruggeman, Douglas J; Wiegand, Thorsten; Fernández, Néstor

2010-09-01

The relative influence of habitat loss, fragmentation and matrix heterogeneity on the viability of populations is a critical area of conservation research that remains unresolved. Using simulation modelling, we provide an analysis of the influence both patch size and patch isolation have on abundance, effective population size (N(e)) and F(ST). An individual-based, spatially explicit population model based on 15 years of field work on the red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) was applied to different landscape configurations. The variation in landscape patterns was summarized using spatial statistics based on O-ring statistics. By regressing demographic and genetics attributes that emerged across the landscape treatments against proportion of total habitat and O-ring statistics, we show that O-ring statistics provide an explicit link between population processes, habitat area, and critical thresholds of fragmentation that affect those processes. Spatial distances among land cover classes that affect biological processes translated into critical scales at which the measures of landscape structure correlated best with genetic indices. Therefore our study infers pattern from process, which contrasts with past studies of landscape genetics. We found that population genetic structure was more strongly affected by fragmentation than population size, which suggests that examining only population size may limit recognition of fragmentation effects that erode genetic variation. If effective population size is used to set recovery goals for endangered species, then habitat fragmentation effects may be sufficiently strong to prevent evaluation of recovery based on the ratio of census:effective population size alone.

CFD-PBM coupled simulation of a nanobubble generator with honeycomb structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, F.; Noda, N. A.; Ueda, T.; Sano, Y.; Takase, Y.; Umekage, T.; Yonezawa, Y.; Tanaka, H.

2018-06-01

In recent years, nanobubble technologies have drawn great attention due to their wide applications in many fields of science and technology. The nitrogen nanobubble water circulation can be used to slow the progressions of oxidation and spoilage for the seafood long- term storage. From previous studies, a kind of honeycomb structure for high-efficiency nanobubble generation has been proposed. In this paper, the bubbly flow in the honeycomb structure was studied. The numerical simulations of honeycomb structure were performed by using a computational fluid dynamics–population balance model (CFD-PBM) coupled model. The numerical model was based on the Eulerian multiphase model and the population balance model (PBM) was used to calculate the gas bubble size distribution. The bubble coalescence and breakage were included. Considering the effect of bubble diameter on the fluid flow, the phase interactions were coupled with the PBM. The bubble size distributions in the honeycomb structure under different work conditions were predicted. The experimental results were compared with the simulation predictions.

Population size vs. social connectedness - A gene-culture coevolutionary approach to cumulative cultural evolution.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Yutaka; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Wakano, Joe Y

2016-10-01

It has long been debated if population size is a crucial determinant of the level of culture. While empirical results are mixed, recent theoretical studies suggest that social connectedness between people may be a more important factor than the size of the entire population. These models, however, do not take into account evolutionary responses of learning strategies determining the mode of transmission and innovation and are hence not suitable for predicting the long-term implications of parameters of interest. In the present paper, to address this issue, we provide a gene-culture coevolution model, in which the microscopic learning process of each individual is explicitly described as a continuous-time stochastic process and time allocation to social and individual learning is allowed to evolve. We have found that social connectedness has a larger impact on the equilibrium level of culture than population size especially when connectedness is weak and population size is large. This result, combined with those of previous culture-only models, points to the importance of studying separate effects of population size and internal social structure to better understand spatiotemporal variation in the level of culture. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A diffusion-based approach to stochastic individual growth and energy budget, with consequences to life-history optimization and population dynamics.

PubMed

Filin, I

2009-06-01

Using diffusion processes, I model stochastic individual growth, given exogenous hazards and starvation risk. By maximizing survival to final size, optimal life histories (e.g. switching size for habitat/dietary shift) are determined by two ratios: mean growth rate over growth variance (diffusion coefficient) and mortality rate over mean growth rate; all are size dependent. For example, switching size decreases with either ratio, if both are positive. I provide examples and compare with previous work on risk-sensitive foraging and the energy-predation trade-off. I then decompose individual size into reversibly and irreversibly growing components, e.g. reserves and structure. I provide a general expression for optimal structural growth, when reserves grow stochastically. I conclude that increased growth variance of reserves delays structural growth (raises threshold size for its commencement) but may eventually lead to larger structures. The effect depends on whether the structural trait is related to foraging or defence. Implications for population dynamics are discussed.

Inferring population structure and demographic history using Y-STR data from worldwide populations.

PubMed

Xu, Hongyang; Wang, Chuan-Chao; Shrestha, Rukesh; Wang, Ling-Xiang; Zhang, Manfei; He, Yungang; Kidd, Judith R; Kidd, Kenneth K; Jin, Li; Li, Hui

2015-02-01

The Y chromosome is one of the best genetic materials to explore the evolutionary history of human populations. Global analyses of Y chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs) data can reveal very interesting world population structures and histories. However, previous Y-STR works tended to focus on small geographical ranges or only included limited sample sizes. In this study, we have investigated population structure and demographic history using 17 Y chromosomal STRs data of 979 males from 44 worldwide populations. The largest genetic distances have been observed between pairs of African and non-African populations. American populations with the lowest genetic diversities also showed large genetic distances and coancestry coefficients with other populations, whereas Eurasian populations displayed close genetic affinities. African populations tend to have the oldest time to the most recent common ancestors (TMRCAs), the largest effective population sizes and the earliest expansion times, whereas the American, Siberian, Melanesian, and isolated Atayal populations have the most recent TMRCAs and expansion times, and the smallest effective population sizes. This clear geographic pattern is well consistent with serial founder model for the origin of populations outside Africa. The Y-STR dataset presented here provides the most detailed view of worldwide population structure and human male demographic history, and additionally will be of great benefit to future forensic applications and population genetic studies.

The Statistics and Mathematics of High Dimension Low Sample Size Asymptotics.

PubMed

Shen, Dan; Shen, Haipeng; Zhu, Hongtu; Marron, J S

2016-10-01

The aim of this paper is to establish several deep theoretical properties of principal component analysis for multiple-component spike covariance models. Our new results reveal an asymptotic conical structure in critical sample eigendirections under the spike models with distinguishable (or indistinguishable) eigenvalues, when the sample size and/or the number of variables (or dimension) tend to infinity. The consistency of the sample eigenvectors relative to their population counterparts is determined by the ratio between the dimension and the product of the sample size with the spike size. When this ratio converges to a nonzero constant, the sample eigenvector converges to a cone, with a certain angle to its corresponding population eigenvector. In the High Dimension, Low Sample Size case, the angle between the sample eigenvector and its population counterpart converges to a limiting distribution. Several generalizations of the multi-spike covariance models are also explored, and additional theoretical results are presented.

Homoplasy and mutation model at microsatellite loci and their consequences for population genetics analysis.

PubMed

Estoup, Arnaud; Jarne, Philippe; Cornuet, Jean-Marie

2002-09-01

Homoplasy has recently attracted the attention of population geneticists, as a consequence of the popularity of highly variable stepwise mutating markers such as microsatellites. Microsatellite alleles generally refer to DNA fragments of different size (electromorphs). Electromorphs are identical in state (i.e. have identical size), but are not necessarily identical by descent due to convergent mutation(s). Homoplasy occurring at microsatellites is thus referred to as size homoplasy. Using new analytical developments and computer simulations, we first evaluate the effect of the mutation rate, the mutation model, the effective population size and the time of divergence between populations on size homoplasy at the within and between population levels. We then review the few experimental studies that used various molecular techniques to detect size homoplasious events at some microsatellite loci. The relationship between this molecularly accessible size homoplasy size and the actual amount of size homoplasy is not trivial, the former being considerably influenced by the molecular structure of microsatellite core sequences. In a third section, we show that homoplasy at microsatellite electromorphs does not represent a significant problem for many types of population genetics analyses realized by molecular ecologists, the large amount of variability at microsatellite loci often compensating for their homoplasious evolution. The situations where size homoplasy may be more problematic involve high mutation rates and large population sizes together with strong allele size constraints.

Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data.

PubMed

González, Edgar J; Martorell, Carlos

2013-07-01

Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with artificial and real data. The former involved simulated species with widely different demographic behaviors. The latter used a chronosequence of populations of an endangered cactus subject to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. In our simulations, the vital rates and their change were always reconstructed accurately. Nevertheless, the model frequently produced alternative results. The use of coarse knowledge of the species' biology (whether vital rates increase or decrease with size or their plausible values) allowed the correct rates to be identified with a 90% success rate. With real data, the model correctly reconstructed the effects of disturbance on vital rates. These effects were previously known from two populations for which demographic data were available. Our procedure seems robust, as the data violated several of the model's assumptions. Thus, time series of size structures and densities contain the necessary information to reconstruct changing vital rates. However, additional biological knowledge may be required to provide reliable results. Because time series of size structures and densities are available for many species or can be rapidly generated, our model can contribute to understand populations that face highly pressing environmental problems.

Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data

PubMed Central

González, Edgar J; Martorell, Carlos

2013-01-01

Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with artificial and real data. The former involved simulated species with widely different demographic behaviors. The latter used a chronosequence of populations of an endangered cactus subject to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. In our simulations, the vital rates and their change were always reconstructed accurately. Nevertheless, the model frequently produced alternative results. The use of coarse knowledge of the species' biology (whether vital rates increase or decrease with size or their plausible values) allowed the correct rates to be identified with a 90% success rate. With real data, the model correctly reconstructed the effects of disturbance on vital rates. These effects were previously known from two populations for which demographic data were available. Our procedure seems robust, as the data violated several of the model's assumptions. Thus, time series of size structures and densities contain the necessary information to reconstruct changing vital rates. However, additional biological knowledge may be required to provide reliable results. Because time series of size structures and densities are available for many species or can be rapidly generated, our model can contribute to understand populations that face highly pressing environmental problems. PMID:23919169

A demographic study of the exponential distribution applied to uneven-aged forests

Treesearch

Jeffrey H. Gove

2016-01-01

A demographic approach based on a size-structured version of the McKendrick-Von Foerster equation is used to demonstrate a theoretical link between the population size distribution and the underlying vital rates (recruitment, mortality and diameter growth) for the population of individuals whose diameter distribution is negative exponential. This model supports the...

Complex Population Dynamics and the Coalescent Under Neutrality

PubMed Central

Volz, Erik M.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the coalescent effective population size Ne can be poorly correlated with the true population size. The relationship between Ne and the population size is sensitive to the way in which birth and death rates vary over time. The problem of inference is exacerbated when the mechanisms underlying population dynamics are complex and depend on many parameters. In instances where nonparametric estimators of Ne such as the skyline struggle to reproduce the correct demographic history, model-based estimators that can draw on prior information about population size and growth rates may be more efficient. A coalescent model is developed for a large class of populations such that the demographic history is described by a deterministic nonlinear dynamical system of arbitrary dimension. This class of demographic model differs from those typically used in population genetics. Birth and death rates are not fixed, and no assumptions are made regarding the fraction of the population sampled. Furthermore, the population may be structured in such a way that gene copies reproduce both within and across demes. For this large class of models, it is shown how to derive the rate of coalescence, as well as the likelihood of a gene genealogy with heterochronous sampling and labeled taxa, and how to simulate a coalescent tree conditional on a complex demographic history. This theoretical framework encapsulates many of the models used by ecologists and epidemiologists and should facilitate the integration of population genetics with the study of mathematical population dynamics. PMID:22042576

Theoretical Study of near Neutrality. II. Effect of Subdivided Population Structure with Local Extinction and Recolonization

PubMed Central

Ohta, T.

1992-01-01

There are several unsolved problems concerning the model of nearly neutral mutations. One is the interaction of subdivided population structure and weak selection that spatially fluctuates. The model of nearly neutral mutations whose selection coefficient spatially fluctuates has been studied by adopting the island model with periodic extinction-recolonization. Both the number of colonies and the migration rate play significant roles in determining mutants' behavior, and selection is ineffective when the extinction-recolonization is frequent with low migration rate. In summary, the number of mutant substitutions decreases and the polymorphism increases by increasing the total population size, and/or decreasing the extinction-recolonization rate. However, by increasing the total size of the population, the mutant substitution rate does not become as low when compared with that in panmictic populations, because of the extinction-recolonization, especially when the migration rate is limited. It is also found that the model satisfactorily explains the contrasting patterns of molecular polymorphisms observed in sibling species of Drosophila, including heterozygosity, proportion of polymorphism and fixation index. PMID:1582566

An advection-diffusion-reaction size-structured fish population dynamics model combined with a statistical parameter estimation procedure: application to the Indian ocean skipjack tuna fishery.

PubMed

Faugeras, Blaise; Maury, Olivier

2005-10-01

We develop an advection-diffusion size-structured fish population dynamics model and apply it to simulate the skipjack tuna population in the Indian Ocean. The model is fully spatialized, and movements are parameterized with oceanographical and biological data; thus it naturally reacts to environment changes. We first formulate an initial-boundary value problem and prove existence of a unique positive solution. We then discuss the numerical scheme chosen for the integration of the simulation model. In a second step we address the parameter estimation problem for such a model. With the help of automatic differentiation, we derive the adjoint code which is used to compute the exact gradient of a Bayesian cost function measuring the distance between the outputs of the model and catch and length frequency data. A sensitivity analysis shows that not all parameters can be estimated from the data. Finally twin experiments in which pertubated parameters are recovered from simulated data are successfully conducted.

Inferring demographic structure with moccasin size data from the Promontory Caves, Utah.

PubMed

Billinger, Michael; Ives, John W

2015-01-01

The moccasin assemblage Julian Steward recovered from the Promontory caves in 1930-31 provides a novel example in which material culture can be used to understand the structure of an AD thirteenth century population. Several studies shed light on the relationship between shoe size, foot size, and stature. We develop an anthropometric model for understanding the composition of the Promontory Cave population by using moccasin size as a proxy for foot size. We then predict the stature of the individual who would have worn a moccasin. Stature is closely related to age for children, subadults and adult males. Although there are predictable sex and age factors biasing moccasin discard practices, moccasin dimensions suggest a relatively large proportion of children and subadults occupied the Promontory caves. This bison and antelope hunting population appears to have thrived during its stay on Promontory Point. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evolution of stochastic demography with life history tradeoffs in density-dependent age-structured populations.

PubMed

Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-10-31

We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size. Published under the PNAS license.

[Stochastic model of infectious diseases transmission].

PubMed

Ruiz-Ramírez, Juan; Hernández-Rodríguez, Gabriela Eréndira

2009-01-01

Propose a mathematic model that shows how population structure affects the size of infectious disease epidemics. This study was conducted during 2004 at the University of Colima. It used generalized small-world network topology to represent contacts that occurred within and between families. To that end, two programs in MATLAB were conducted to calculate the efficiency of the network. The development of a program in the C programming language was also required, that represents the stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed model, and simultaneous results were obtained for the number of infected people. An increased number of families connected by meeting sites impacted the size of the infectious diseases by roughly 400%. Population structure influences the rapid spread of infectious diseases, reaching epidemic effects.

The mutation-drift balance in spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Schneider, David M; Martins, Ayana B; de Aguiar, Marcus A M

2016-08-07

In finite populations the action of neutral mutations is balanced by genetic drift, leading to a stationary distribution of alleles that displays a transition between two different behaviors. For small mutation rates most individuals will carry the same allele at equilibrium, whereas for high mutation rates of the alleles will be randomly distributed with frequencies close to one half for a biallelic gene. For well-mixed haploid populations the mutation threshold is μc=1/2N, where N is the population size. In this paper we study how spatial structure affects this mutation threshold. Specifically, we study the stationary allele distribution for populations placed on regular networks where connected nodes represent potential mating partners. We show that the mutation threshold is sensitive to spatial structure only if the number of potential mates is very small. In this limit, the mutation threshold decreases substantially, increasing the diversity of the population at considerably low mutation rates. Defining kc as the degree of the network for which the mutation threshold drops to half of its value in well-mixed populations we show that kc grows slowly as a function of the population size, following a power law. Our calculations and simulations are based on the Moran model and on a mapping between the Moran model with mutations and the voter model with opinion makers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ranked set sampling: cost and optimal set size.

PubMed

Nahhas, Ramzi W; Wolfe, Douglas A; Chen, Haiying

2002-12-01

McIntyre (1952, Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 3, 385-390) introduced ranked set sampling (RSS) as a method for improving estimation of a population mean in settings where sampling and ranking of units from the population are inexpensive when compared with actual measurement of the units. Two of the major factors in the usefulness of RSS are the set size and the relative costs of the various operations of sampling, ranking, and measurement. In this article, we consider ranking error models and cost models that enable us to assess the effect of different cost structures on the optimal set size for RSS. For reasonable cost structures, we find that the optimal RSS set sizes are generally larger than had been anticipated previously. These results will provide a useful tool for determining whether RSS is likely to lead to an improvement over simple random sampling in a given setting and, if so, what RSS set size is best to use in this case.

A Comparison of Normal and Elliptical Estimation Methods in Structural Equation Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schumacker, Randall E.; Cheevatanarak, Suchittra

Monte Carlo simulation compared chi-square statistics, parameter estimates, and root mean square error of approximation values using normal and elliptical estimation methods. Three research conditions were imposed on the simulated data: sample size, population contamination percent, and kurtosis. A Bentler-Weeks structural model established the…

Harvesting, predation and competition effects on a red coral population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbiati, M.; Buffoni, G.; Caforio, G.; Di Cola, G.; Santangelo, G.

A Corallium rubrum population, dwelling in the Ligurian Sea, has been under observation since 1987. Biometric descriptors of colonies (base diameter, weight, number of polyps, number of growth rings) have been recorded and correlated. The population size structure was obtained by distributing the colonies into diameter classes, each size class representing the average annual increment of diameter growth. The population was divided into ten classes, including a recruitment class. This size structure showed a fairly regular trend in the first four classes. The irregularity of survival in the older classes agreed with field observations on harvesting and predation. Demographic parameters such as survival, growth plasticity and natality coefficients were estimated from the experimental data. On this basis a discrete nonlinear model was implemented. The model is based on a kind of density-dependent Leslie matrix, where the feedback term only occurs in survival of the first class; the recruitment function is assumed to be dependent on the total biomass and related to inhibiting effects due to competitive interactions. Stability analysis was applied to steady-state solutions. Numerical simulations of population evolution were carried out under different conditions. The dynamics of settlement and the effects of disturbances such as harvesting, predation and environmental variability were studied.

Mutation Bias Favors Protein Folding Stability in the Evolution of Small Populations

PubMed Central

Porto, Markus; Bastolla, Ugo

2010-01-01

Mutation bias in prokaryotes varies from extreme adenine and thymine (AT) in obligatory endosymbiotic or parasitic bacteria to extreme guanine and cytosine (GC), for instance in actinobacteria. GC mutation bias deeply influences the folding stability of proteins, making proteins on the average less hydrophobic and therefore less stable with respect to unfolding but also less susceptible to misfolding and aggregation. We study a model where proteins evolve subject to selection for folding stability under given mutation bias, population size, and neutrality. We find a non-neutral regime where, for any given population size, there is an optimal mutation bias that maximizes fitness. Interestingly, this optimal GC usage is small for small populations, large for intermediate populations and around 50% for large populations. This result is robust with respect to the definition of the fitness function and to the protein structures studied. Our model suggests that small populations evolving with small GC usage eventually accumulate a significant selective advantage over populations evolving without this bias. This provides a possible explanation to the observation that most species adopting obligatory intracellular lifestyles with a consequent reduction of effective population size shifted their mutation spectrum towards AT. The model also predicts that large GC usage is optimal for intermediate population size. To test these predictions we estimated the effective population sizes of bacterial species using the optimal codon usage coefficients computed by dos Reis et al. and the synonymous to non-synonymous substitution ratio computed by Daubin and Moran. We found that the population sizes estimated in these ways are significantly smaller for species with small and large GC usage compared to species with no bias, which supports our prediction. PMID:20463869

Modelling cell population growth with applications to cancer therapy in human tumour cell lines.

PubMed

Basse, Britta; Baguley, Bruce C; Marshall, Elaine S; Wake, Graeme C; Wall, David J N

2004-01-01

In this paper we present an overview of the work undertaken to model a population of cells and the effects of cancer therapy. We began with a theoretical one compartment size structured cell population model and investigated its asymptotic steady size distributions (SSDs) (On a cell growth model for plankton, MMB JIMA 21 (2004) 49). However these size distributions are not similar to the DNA (size) distributions obtained experimentally via the flow cytometric analysis of human tumour cell lines (data obtained from the Auckland Cancer Society Research Centre, New Zealand). In our one compartment model, size was a generic term, but in order to obtain realistic steady size distributions we chose size to be DNA content and devised a multi-compartment mathematical model for the cell division cycle where each compartment corresponds to a distinct phase of the cell cycle (J. Math. Biol. 47 (2003) 295). We then incorporated another compartment describing the possible induction of apoptosis (cell death) from mitosis phase (Modelling cell death in human tumour cell lines exposed to anticancer drug paclitaxel, J. Math. Biol. 2004, in press). This enabled us to compare our model to flow cytometric data of a melanoma cell line where the anticancer drug, paclitaxel, had been added. The model gives a dynamic picture of the effects of paclitaxel on the cell cycle. We hope to use the model to describe the effects of other cancer therapies on a number of different cell lines. Copyright 2004 Elsevier Ltd.

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

PubMed

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk

PubMed Central

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles

The increasing importance of small-scale forestry: evidence from family forest ownership patterns in the United States

Treesearch

Y. Zhang; X. Liao; B.J. Butler; J. Schelhas

2009-01-01

The state-level distribution of the size of family forest holdings in the contiguous United States was examined using data collected by the USDA Forest Service in 1993 and 2003. Regressions models were used to analyze the factors influencing the mean size and structural variation among states and between the two periods. Population density, percent of the population at...

Competition in size-structured populations: mechanisms inducing cohort formation and population cycles.

PubMed

de Roos, André M; Persson, Lennart

2003-02-01

In this paper we investigate the consequences of size-dependent competition among the individuals of a consumer population by analyzing the dynamic properties of a physiologically structured population model. Only 2 size-classes of individuals are distinguished: juveniles and adults. Juveniles and adults both feed on one and the same resource and hence interact by means of exploitative competition. Juvenile individuals allocate all assimilated energy into development and mature on reaching a fixed developmental threshold. The combination of this fixed threshold and the resource-dependent developmental rate, implies that the juvenile delay between birth and the onset of reproduction may vary in time. Adult individuals allocate all assimilated energy to reproduction. Mortality of both juveniles and adults is assumed to be inversely proportional to the amount of energy assimilated. In this setting we study how the dynamics of the population are influenced by the relative foraging capabilities of juveniles and adults. In line with results that we previously obtained in size-structured consumer-resource models with pulsed reproduction, population cycles primarily occur when either juveniles or adults have a distinct competitive advantage. When adults have a larger per capita feeding rate and are hence competitively superior to juveniles, population oscillations occur that are primarily induced by the fact that the duration of the juvenile period changes with changing food conditions. These cycles do not occur when the juvenile delay is a fixed parameter. When juveniles are competitively superior, two different types of population fluctuations can occur: (1) rapid, low-amplitude fluctuations having a period of half the juvenile delay and (2) slow, large-amplitude fluctuations characterized by a period, which is roughly equal to the juvenile delay. The analysis of simplified versions of the structured model indicates that these two types of oscillations also occur if mortality and/or development is independent of food density, i.e. in a situation with a constant juvenile developmental delay and a constant, food-independent background mortality. Thus, the oscillations that occur when juveniles are more competitive are induced by the juvenile delay per se. When juveniles exert a larger foraging pressure on the shared resource, maturation implies an increase not only in adult density, but also in food density and consequently fecundity. Our analysis suggests that this correlation in time between adult density and fecundity is crucial for the occurrence of population cycles when juveniles are competitively superior.

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassar, Ronald D.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Whiteley, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Supplemental materials for the analysis of capture-recapture data for polar bears in Western Hudson Bay, Canada, 1984-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, Eric V.; Lunn, Nicholas J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, Ian

2007-01-01

Regehr and others (2007, Survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to earlier sea ice breakup: Journal of Wildlife Management, v. 71, no. 8) evaluated survival in relation to climatic conditions and estimated population size for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in western Hudson Bay, Canada. Here, we provide supplemental materials for the analyses in Regehr and others (2007). We demonstrate how tag-return data from harvested polar bears were used to adjust estimates of total survival for human-caused mortality. We describe the sex and age composition of the capture and harvest samples and provide results for goodness-of-fit tests applied to capture-recapture models. We also describe the capture-recapture model selection procedure and the structure of the most supported model, which was used to estimate survival and population size.

Inventory implications of using sampling variances in estimation of growth model coefficients

Treesearch

Albert R. Stage; William R. Wykoff

2000-01-01

Variables based on stand densities or stocking have sampling errors that depend on the relation of tree size to plot size and on the spatial structure of the population, ignoring the sampling errors of such variables, which include most measures of competition used in both distance-dependent and distance-independent growth models, can bias the predictions obtained from...

Viability of piping plover Charadrius melodus metapopulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plissner, Jonathan H.; Haig, Susan M.

2000-01-01

The metapopulation viability analysis package, VORTEX, was used to examine viability and recovery objectives for piping plovers Charadrius melodus, an endangered shorebird that breeds in three distinct regions of North America. Baseline models indicate that while Atlantic Coast populations, under current management practices, are at little risk of near-term extinction, Great Plains and Great Lakes populations require 36% higher mean fecundity for a significant probability of persisting for the next 100 years. Metapopulation structure (i.e. the delineation of populations within the metapopulation) and interpopulation dispersal rates had varying effects on model results; however, spatially-structured metapopulations exhibited lower viability than that reported for single-population models. The models were most sensitive to variation in survivorship; hence, additional mortality data will improve their accuracy. With this information, such models become useful tools in identifying successful management objectives; and sensitivity analyses, even in the absence of some data, may indicate which options are likely to be most effective. Metapopulation viability models are best suited for developing conservation strategies for achieving recovery objectives based on maintaining an externally derived, target population size and structure.

Population dynamics of HIV-1 inferred from gene sequences.

PubMed Central

Grassly, N C; Harvey, P H; Holmes, E C

1999-01-01

A method for the estimation of population dynamic history from sequence data is described and used to investigate the past population dynamics of HIV-1 subtypes A and B. Using both gag and env gene alignments the effective population size of each subtype is estimated and found to be surprisingly small. This may be a result of the selective sweep of mutations through the population, or may indicate an important role of genetic drift in the fixation of mutations. The implications of these results for the spread of drug-resistant mutations and transmission dynamics, and also the roles of selection and recombination in shaping HIV-1 genetic diversity, are discussed. A larger estimated effective population size for subtype A may be the result of differences in time of origin, transmission dynamics, and/or population structure. To investigate the importance of population structure a model of population subdivision was fitted to each subtype, although the improvement in likelihood was found to be nonsignificant. PMID:9927440

Ecogeography, genetics, and the evolution of human body form.

PubMed

Roseman, Charles C; Auerbach, Benjamin M

2015-01-01

Genetic resemblances among groups are non-randomly distributed in humans. This population structure may influence the correlations between traits and environmental drivers of natural selection thus complicating the interpretation of the fossil record when modern human variation is used as a referential model. In this paper, we examine the effects of population structure and natural selection on postcranial traits that reflect body size and shape with application to the more general issue of how climate - using latitude as a proxy - has influenced hominin morphological variation. We compare models that include terms reflecting population structure, ascertained from globally distributed microsatellite data, and latitude on postcranial phenotypes derived from skeletal dimensions taken from a large global sample of modern humans. We find that models with a population structure term fit better than a model of natural selection along a latitudinal cline in all cases. A model including both latitude and population structure terms is a good fit to distal limb element lengths and bi-iliac breadth, indicating that multiple evolutionary forces shaped these morphologies. In contrast, a model that included only a population structure term best explained femoral head diameter and the crural index. The results demonstrate that population structure is an important part of human postcranial variation, and that clinally distributed natural selection is not sufficient to explain among-group differentiation. The distribution of human body form is strongly influenced by the contingencies of modern human origins, which calls for new ways to approach problems in the evolution of human variation, past and present. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulated population responses of common carp to commercial exploitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weber, Michael J.; Hennen, Matthew J.; Brown, Michael L.

2011-12-01

Common carp Cyprinus carpio is a widespread invasive species that can become highly abundant and impose deleterious ecosystem effects. Thus, aquatic resource managers are interested in controlling common carp populations. Control of invasive common carp populations is difficult, due in part to the inherent uncertainty of how populations respond to exploitation. To understand how common carp populations respond to exploitation, we evaluated common carp population dynamics (recruitment, growth, and mortality) in three natural lakes in eastern South Dakota. Common carp exhibited similar population dynamics across these three systems that were characterized by consistent recruitment (ages 3 to 15 years present),more » fast growth (K = 0.37 to 0.59), and low mortality (A = 1 to 7%). We then modeled the effects of commercial exploitation on size structure, abundance, and egg production to determine its utility as a management tool to control populations. All three populations responded similarly to exploitation simulations with a 575-mm length restriction, representing commercial gear selectivity. Simulated common carp size structure modestly declined (9 to 37%) in all simulations. Abundance of common carp declined dramatically (28 to 56%) at low levels of exploitation (0 to 20%) but exploitation >40% had little additive effect and populations were only reduced by 49 to 79% despite high exploitation (>90%). Maximum lifetime egg production was reduced from 77 to 89% at a moderate level of exploitation (40%), indicating the potential for recruitment overfishing. Exploitation further reduced common carp size structure, abundance, and egg production when simulations were not size selective. Our results provide insights to how common carp populations may respond to exploitation. Although commercial exploitation may be able to partially control populations, an integrated removal approach that removes all sizes of common carp has a greater chance of controlling population abundance and reducing perturbations induced by this invasive species.« less

Epidemic Process over the Commute Network in a Metropolitan Area

PubMed Central

Yashima, Kenta; Sasaki, Akira

2014-01-01

An understanding of epidemiological dynamics is important for prevention and control of epidemic outbreaks. However, previous studies tend to focus only on specific areas, indicating that application to another area or intervention strategy requires a similar time-consuming simulation. Here, we study the epidemic dynamics of the disease-spread over a commute network, using the Tokyo metropolitan area as an example, in an attempt to elucidate the general properties of epidemic spread over a commute network that could be used for a prediction in any metropolitan area. The model is formulated on the basis of a metapopulation network in which local populations are interconnected by actual commuter flows in the Tokyo metropolitan area and the spread of infection is simulated by an individual-based model. We find that the probability of a global epidemic as well as the final epidemic sizes in both global and local populations, the timing of the epidemic peak, and the time at which the epidemic reaches a local population are mainly determined by the joint distribution of the local population sizes connected by the commuter flows, but are insensitive to geographical or topological structure of the network. Moreover, there is a strong relation between the population size and the time that the epidemic reaches this local population and we are able to determine the reason for this relation as well as its dependence on the commute network structure and epidemic parameters. This study shows that the model based on the connection between the population size classes is sufficient to predict both global and local epidemic dynamics in metropolitan area. Moreover, the clear relation of the time taken by the epidemic to reach each local population can be used as a novel measure for intervention; this enables efficient intervention strategies in each local population prior to the actual arrival. PMID:24905831

Metapopulation models for historical inference.

PubMed

Wakeley, John

2004-04-01

The genealogical process for a sample from a metapopulation, in which local populations are connected by migration and can undergo extinction and subsequent recolonization, is shown to have a relatively simple structure in the limit as the number of populations in the metapopulation approaches infinity. The result, which is an approximation to the ancestral behaviour of samples from a metapopulation with a large number of populations, is the same as that previously described for other metapopulation models, namely that the genealogical process is closely related to Kingman's unstructured coalescent. The present work considers a more general class of models that includes two kinds of extinction and recolonization, and the possibility that gamete production precedes extinction. In addition, following other recent work, this result for a metapopulation divided into many populations is shown to hold both for finite population sizes and in the usual diffusion limit, which assumes that population sizes are large. Examples illustrate when the usual diffusion limit is appropriate and when it is not. Some shortcomings and extensions of the model are considered, and the relevance of such models to understanding human history is discussed.

Host Resistance, Population Structure and the Long-Term Persistence of Bubonic Plague: Contributions of a Modelling Approach in the Malagasy Focus

PubMed Central

Gascuel, Fanny; Choisy, Marc; Duplantier, Jean-Marc; Débarre, Florence; Brouat, Carine

2013-01-01

Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar. PMID:23675291

Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus.

PubMed

Gascuel, Fanny; Choisy, Marc; Duplantier, Jean-Marc; Débarre, Florence; Brouat, Carine

2013-01-01

Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar.

Spatial extent of analysis influences observed patterns of population genetic structure in a widespread darter species (Percidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Argentina, Jane E.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Hallerman, Eric M.; Welsh, Stuart A.

2018-01-01

Connectivity among stream fish populations allows for exchange of genetic material and helps maintain genetic diversity, adaptive potential and population stability over time. Changes in species demographics and population connectivity have the potential to permanently alter the genetic patterns of stream fish, although these changes through space and time are variable and understudied in small‐bodied freshwater fish.As a spatially widespread, common species of benthic freshwater fish, the variegate darter (Etheostoma variatum) is a model species for documenting how patterns of genetic structure and diversity respond to increasing isolation due to large dams and how scale of study may shape our understanding of these patterns. We sampled variegate darters from 34 sites across their range in the North American Ohio River basin and examined how patterns of genetic structure and diversity within and between populations responded to historical population changes and dams within and between populations.Spatial scale and configuration of genetic structure varied across the eight identified populations, from tributaries within a watershed, to a single watershed, to multiple watersheds that encompass Ohio River mainstem habitats. This multiwatershed pattern of population structuring suggests genetic dispersal across large distances was and may continue to be common, although some populations remain isolated despite no apparent structural dispersal barriers. Populations with low effective population sizes and evidence of past population bottlenecks showed low allelic richness, but diversity patterns were not related to watershed size, a surrogate for habitat availability. Pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) increased with fluvial distance and was related to both historic and contemporary processes. Genetic diversity changes were influenced by underlying population size and stability, and while instream barriers were not strong determinants of genetic structuring or loss of genetic diversity, they reduce population connectivity and may impact long‐term population persistence.The broad spatial scale of this study demonstrated the large spatial extent of some variegate darter populations and indicated that dispersal is more extensive than expected given the movement patterns typically observed for small‐bodied, benthic fish. Dam impacts depended on underlying population size and stability, with larger populations more resilient to genetic drift and allelic richness loss than smaller populations.Other darters that inhabit large river habitats may show similar patterns in landscape‐scale studies, and large river barriers may impact populations of small‐bodied fish more than previously expected. Estimation of dispersal rates and behaviours is critical to conservation of imperilled riverine species such as darters.

The gastropod Phorcus sauciatus (Koch, 1845) along the north-west Iberian Peninsula: filling historical gaps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubal, Marcos; Veiga, Puri; Moreira, Juan; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel

2014-03-01

The intertidal gastropod Phorcus sauciatus is a subtropical grazer that reaches its northern boundary in the Iberian Peninsula. Distribution of P. sauciatus along the Iberian Peninsula shows, however, gaps in its distribution. The present study was aimed at detecting possible recent changes on the population structure and distribution of P. sauciatus along the north-west Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula. To achieve this aim, we adopted a qualitative sampling design to explore the presence of P. sauciatus along a region within its historical gap of distribution (north Portuguese coast). In addition, a quantitative sampling design was adopted to test hypotheses about the abundance and size structure of P. sauciatus populations among regions with different historical records of its abundance and among shores with different exposure. Results showed that P. sauciatus was present along the north Portuguese coast. However, the abundance and size structure of the newly settled populations were significantly different to those of the historically recorded populations. Moreover, P. sauciatus was able to establish populations at sheltered shores. Considering these results, we propose models for the distribution of P. sauciatus along the Iberian Peninsula, based on effects of sea surface temperature, and to explain the size-frequency of their populations based on their density.

A Spatio-Temporally Explicit Random Encounter Model for Large-Scale Population Surveys

PubMed Central

Jousimo, Jussi; Ovaskainen, Otso

2016-01-01

Random encounter models can be used to estimate population abundance from indirect data collected by non-invasive sampling methods, such as track counts or camera-trap data. The classical Formozov–Malyshev–Pereleshin (FMP) estimator converts track counts into an estimate of mean population density, assuming that data on the daily movement distances of the animals are available. We utilize generalized linear models with spatio-temporal error structures to extend the FMP estimator into a flexible Bayesian modelling approach that estimates not only total population size, but also spatio-temporal variation in population density. We also introduce a weighting scheme to estimate density on habitats that are not covered by survey transects, assuming that movement data on a subset of individuals is available. We test the performance of spatio-temporal and temporal approaches by a simulation study mimicking the Finnish winter track count survey. The results illustrate how the spatio-temporal modelling approach is able to borrow information from observations made on neighboring locations and times when estimating population density, and that spatio-temporal and temporal smoothing models can provide improved estimates of total population size compared to the FMP method. PMID:27611683

Conserving genomic variability in large mammals: Effect of population fluctuations and variance in male reproductive success on variability in Yellowstone bison

Treesearch

Andres Perez-Figueroa; Rick L. Wallen; Tiago Antao; Jason A. Coombs; Michael K. Schwartz; P. J. White; Gordon Luikart

2012-01-01

Loss of genetic variation through genetic drift can reduce population viability. However, relatively little is known about loss of variation caused by the combination of fluctuating population size and variance in reproductive success in age structured populations. We built an individual-based computer simulation model to examine how actual culling and hunting...

To stock or not to stock? Assessing restoration potential of a remnant American shad spawning run with hatchery supplementation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, Michael M.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2013-01-01

Hatchery supplementation has been widely used as a restoration technique for American Shad Alosa sapidissima on the East Coast of the USA, but results have been equivocal. In the Penobscot River, Maine, dam removals and other improvements to fish passage will likely reestablish access to the majority of this species’ historic spawning habitat. Additional efforts being considered include the stocking of larval American Shad. The decision about whether to stock a river system undergoing restoration should be made after evaluating the probability of natural recolonization and examining the costs and benefits of potentially accelerating recovery using a stocking program. However, appropriate evaluation can be confounded by a dearth of information about the starting population size and age structure of the remnant American Shad spawning run in the river. We used the Penobscot River as a case study to assess the theoretical sensitivity of recovery time to either scenario (stocking or not) by building a deterministic model of an American Shad population. This model is based on the best available estimates of size at age, fecundity, rate of iteroparity, and recruitment. Density dependence was imposed, such that the population reached a plateau at an arbitrary recovery goal of 633,000 spawning adults. Stocking had a strong accelerating effect on the time to modeled recovery (as measured by the time to reach 50% of the recovery goal) in the base model, but stocking had diminishing effects with larger population sizes. There is a diminishing return to stocking when the starting population is modestly increased. With a low starting population (a spawning run of 1,000), supplementation with 12 million larvae annually accelerated modeled recovery by 12 years. Only a 2-year acceleration was observed if the starting population was 15,000. Such a heuristic model may aid managers in assessing the costs and benefits of stocking by incorporating a structured decision framework.

NASA's New Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, Paula H.

2010-01-01

This paper describes the functionality and use of ORDEM2010, which replaces ORDEM2000, as the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) debris engineering model. Like its predecessor, ORDEM2010 serves the ODPO mission of providing spacecraft designers/operators and debris observers with a publicly available model to calculate orbital debris flux by current-state-of-knowledge methods. The key advance in ORDEM2010 is the input file structure of the yearly debris populations from 1995-2035 of sizes 10 micron - 1 m. These files include debris from low-Earth orbits (LEO) through geosynchronous orbits (GEO). Stable orbital elements (i.e., those that do not randomize on a sub-year timescale) are included in the files as are debris size, debris number, material density, random error and population error. Material density is implemented from ground-test data into the NASA breakup model and assigned to debris fragments accordingly. The random and population errors are due to machine error and uncertainties in debris sizes. These high-fidelity population files call for a much higher-level model analysis than what was possible with the populations of ORDEM2000. Population analysis in the ORDEM2010 model consists of mapping matrices that convert the debris population elements to debris fluxes. One output mode results in a spacecraft encompassing 3-D igloo of debris flux, compartmentalized by debris size, velocity, pitch, and yaw with respect to spacecraft ram direction. The second output mode provides debris flux through an Earth-based telescope/radar beam from LEO through GEO. This paper compares the new ORDEM2010 with ORDEM2000 in terms of processes and results with examples of specific orbits.

Estimating mutation parameters, population history and genealogy simultaneously from temporally spaced sequence data.

PubMed Central

Drummond, Alexei J; Nicholls, Geoff K; Rodrigo, Allen G; Solomon, Wiremu

2002-01-01

Molecular sequences obtained at different sampling times from populations of rapidly evolving pathogens and from ancient subfossil and fossil sources are increasingly available with modern sequencing technology. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical inference approach to the joint estimation of mutation rate and population size that incorporates the uncertainty in the genealogy of such temporally spaced sequences by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration. The Kingman coalescent model is used to describe the time structure of the ancestral tree. We recover information about the unknown true ancestral coalescent tree, population size, and the overall mutation rate from temporally spaced data, that is, from nucleotide sequences gathered at different times, from different individuals, in an evolving haploid population. We briefly discuss the methodological implications and show what can be inferred, in various practically relevant states of prior knowledge. We develop extensions for exponentially growing population size and joint estimation of substitution model parameters. We illustrate some of the important features of this approach on a genealogy of HIV-1 envelope (env) partial sequences. PMID:12136032

Estimating mutation parameters, population history and genealogy simultaneously from temporally spaced sequence data.

PubMed

Drummond, Alexei J; Nicholls, Geoff K; Rodrigo, Allen G; Solomon, Wiremu

2002-07-01

Molecular sequences obtained at different sampling times from populations of rapidly evolving pathogens and from ancient subfossil and fossil sources are increasingly available with modern sequencing technology. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical inference approach to the joint estimation of mutation rate and population size that incorporates the uncertainty in the genealogy of such temporally spaced sequences by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration. The Kingman coalescent model is used to describe the time structure of the ancestral tree. We recover information about the unknown true ancestral coalescent tree, population size, and the overall mutation rate from temporally spaced data, that is, from nucleotide sequences gathered at different times, from different individuals, in an evolving haploid population. We briefly discuss the methodological implications and show what can be inferred, in various practically relevant states of prior knowledge. We develop extensions for exponentially growing population size and joint estimation of substitution model parameters. We illustrate some of the important features of this approach on a genealogy of HIV-1 envelope (env) partial sequences.

Statistical characteristics of dynamics for population migration driven by the economic interests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Zhao, Ning; Hao, Rui

2016-06-01

Population migration typically occurs under some constraints, which can deeply affect the structure of a society and some other related aspects. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the characteristics of population migration. Data from the China Statistical Yearbook indicate that the regional gross domestic product per capita relates to the population size via a linear or power-law relation. In addition, the distribution of population migration sizes or relative migration strength introduced here is dominated by a shifted power-law relation. To reveal the mechanism that creates the aforementioned distributions, a dynamic model is proposed based on the population migration rule that migration is facilitated by higher financial gains and abated by fewer employment opportunities at the destination, considering the migration cost as a function of the migration distance. The calculated results indicate that the distribution of the relative migration strength is governed by a shifted power-law relation, and that the distribution of migration distances is dominated by a truncated power-law relation. These results suggest the use of a power-law to fit a distribution may be not always suitable. Additionally, from the modeling framework, one can infer that it is the randomness and determinacy that jointly create the scaling characteristics of the distributions. The calculation also demonstrates that the network formed by active nodes, representing the immigration and emigration regions, usually evolves from an ordered state with a non-uniform structure to a disordered state with a uniform structure, which is evidenced by the increasing structural entropy.

Population Genetic Structure of the Tropical Two-Wing Flyingfish (Exocoetus volitans)

PubMed Central

Lewallen, Eric A.; Bohonak, Andrew J.; Bonin, Carolina A.; van Wijnen, Andre J.; Pitman, Robert L.; Lovejoy, Nathan R.

2016-01-01

Delineating populations of pantropical marine fish is a difficult process, due to widespread geographic ranges and complex life history traits in most species. Exocoetus volitans, a species of two-winged flyingfish, is a good model for understanding large-scale patterns of epipelagic fish population structure because it has a circumtropical geographic range and completes its entire life cycle in the epipelagic zone. Buoyant pelagic eggs should dictate high local dispersal capacity in this species, although a brief larval phase, small body size, and short lifespan may limit the dispersal of individuals over large spatial scales. Based on these biological features, we hypothesized that E. volitans would exhibit statistically and biologically significant population structure defined by recognized oceanographic barriers. We tested this hypothesis by analyzing cytochrome b mtDNA sequence data (1106 bps) from specimens collected in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans (n = 266). AMOVA, Bayesian, and coalescent analytical approaches were used to assess and interpret population-level genetic variability. A parsimony-based haplotype network did not reveal population subdivision among ocean basins, but AMOVA revealed limited, statistically significant population structure between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (ΦST = 0.035, p<0.001). A spatially-unbiased Bayesian approach identified two circumtropical population clusters north and south of the Equator (ΦST = 0.026, p<0.001), a previously unknown dispersal barrier for an epipelagic fish. Bayesian demographic modeling suggested the effective population size of this species increased by at least an order of magnitude ~150,000 years ago, to more than 1 billion individuals currently. Thus, high levels of genetic similarity observed in E. volitans can be explained by high rates of gene flow, a dramatic and recent population expansion, as well as extensive and consistent dispersal throughout the geographic range of the species. PMID:27736863

Population Genetic Structure of the Tropical Two-Wing Flyingfish (Exocoetus volitans).

PubMed

Lewallen, Eric A; Bohonak, Andrew J; Bonin, Carolina A; van Wijnen, Andre J; Pitman, Robert L; Lovejoy, Nathan R

2016-01-01

Delineating populations of pantropical marine fish is a difficult process, due to widespread geographic ranges and complex life history traits in most species. Exocoetus volitans, a species of two-winged flyingfish, is a good model for understanding large-scale patterns of epipelagic fish population structure because it has a circumtropical geographic range and completes its entire life cycle in the epipelagic zone. Buoyant pelagic eggs should dictate high local dispersal capacity in this species, although a brief larval phase, small body size, and short lifespan may limit the dispersal of individuals over large spatial scales. Based on these biological features, we hypothesized that E. volitans would exhibit statistically and biologically significant population structure defined by recognized oceanographic barriers. We tested this hypothesis by analyzing cytochrome b mtDNA sequence data (1106 bps) from specimens collected in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans (n = 266). AMOVA, Bayesian, and coalescent analytical approaches were used to assess and interpret population-level genetic variability. A parsimony-based haplotype network did not reveal population subdivision among ocean basins, but AMOVA revealed limited, statistically significant population structure between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (ΦST = 0.035, p<0.001). A spatially-unbiased Bayesian approach identified two circumtropical population clusters north and south of the Equator (ΦST = 0.026, p<0.001), a previously unknown dispersal barrier for an epipelagic fish. Bayesian demographic modeling suggested the effective population size of this species increased by at least an order of magnitude ~150,000 years ago, to more than 1 billion individuals currently. Thus, high levels of genetic similarity observed in E. volitans can be explained by high rates of gene flow, a dramatic and recent population expansion, as well as extensive and consistent dispersal throughout the geographic range of the species.

The program structure does not reliably recover the correct population structure when sampling is uneven: subsampling and new estimators alleviate the problem.

PubMed

Puechmaille, Sebastien J

2016-05-01

Inferences of population structure and more precisely the identification of genetically homogeneous groups of individuals are essential to the fields of ecology, evolutionary biology and conservation biology. Such population structure inferences are routinely investigated via the program structure implementing a Bayesian algorithm to identify groups of individuals at Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium. While the method is performing relatively well under various population models with even sampling between subpopulations, the robustness of the method to uneven sample size between subpopulations and/or hierarchical levels of population structure has not yet been tested despite being commonly encountered in empirical data sets. In this study, I used simulated and empirical microsatellite data sets to investigate the impact of uneven sample size between subpopulations and/or hierarchical levels of population structure on the detected population structure. The results demonstrated that uneven sampling often leads to wrong inferences on hierarchical structure and downward-biased estimates of the true number of subpopulations. Distinct subpopulations with reduced sampling tended to be merged together, while at the same time, individuals from extensively sampled subpopulations were generally split, despite belonging to the same panmictic population. Four new supervised methods to detect the number of clusters were developed and tested as part of this study and were found to outperform the existing methods using both evenly and unevenly sampled data sets. Additionally, a subsampling strategy aiming to reduce sampling unevenness between subpopulations is presented and tested. These results altogether demonstrate that when sampling evenness is accounted for, the detection of the correct population structure is greatly improved. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Krill population dynamics in the Scotia Sea: variability in growth and mortality within a single population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, K.; Murphy, E. J.; Loeb, V.; Hewitt, R. P.

2002-07-01

Understanding the demographics of Antarctic krill over large scales may be complicated by regional differences in the processes that govern population structure. The influence of regional differences in growth and mortality on population size structure was examined using data on the length-frequency distribution of krill in the Scotia Sea using samples from the South Shetland Islands and South Georgia collected annually from 1991 to 2000. A correction function, which took account of the higher growth rate at South Georgia, produced a consistent similarity in the position of the modal size classes that was not present in the raw data. Optimising the mortality rate, to minimise the differences in the growth corrected length-frequency distribution, suggested a higher mortality rate at South Georgia that the South Shetlands. The intra-specific variations in growth and mortality rates are consistent with published values and with other Euphausiids species. Having accounted for the demographic plasticity, it is apparent that strong recruitment of the smallest size class of krill is represented in both populations simultaneously. It appears that first-year krill are advected into different regions of the Scotia Sea where the resultant population size structure is determined by regional differences in growth and mortality. The majority of the commercial harvest of krill in the Antarctic occurs in a relatively small number of regional fisheries within the Scotia Sea and is managed using population models based on a single set of demographic parameters. Where substantial differences in these parameters exist between fishing areas, the calculation of catch limits should take these differences into account.

Fixation of slightly beneficial mutations: effects of life history.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Lee, Aline Magdalena; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2010-04-01

Recent studies of rates of evolution have revealed large systematic differences among organisms with different life histories, both within and among taxa. Here, we consider how life history may affect the rate of evolution via its influence on the fixation probability of slightly beneficial mutations. Our approach is based on diffusion modeling for a finite, stage-structured population with stochastic population dynamics. The results, which are verified by computer simulations, demonstrate that even with complex population structure just two demographic parameters are sufficient to give an accurate approximation of the fixation probability of a slightly beneficial mutation. These are the reproductive value of the stage in which the mutation first occurs and the demographic variance of the population. The demographic variance also determines what influence population size has on the fixation probability. This model represents a substantial generalization of earlier models, covering a large range of life histories.

Population inertia and its sensitivity to changes in vital rates and population structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koons, David N.; Holmes, Randall R.; Grand, James B.

2007-01-01

Because the (st)age structure of a population may rarely be stable, studies of transient population dynamics and population momentum are becoming ever more popular. Yet, studies of "population momentum" are restricted in the sense that they describe the inertia of population size resulting from a demographic transition to the stationary population growth rate. Although rarely mentioned, inertia in population size is a general phenomenon and can be produced by any demographic transition or perturbation. Because population size is of central importance in demography, conservation, and management, formulas relating the sensitivity of population inertia to changes in underlying vital rates and population structure could provide much-needed insight into the dynamics of populations with unstable (st)age structure. Here, we derive such formulas, which are readily computable, and provide examples of their potential use in studies of life history and applied arenas of population study. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

In vitro ovine articular chondrocyte proliferation: experiments and modelling.

PubMed

Mancuso, L; Liuzzo, M I; Fadda, S; Pisu, M; Cincotti, A; Arras, M; La Nasa, G; Concas, A; Cao, G

2010-06-01

This study focuses on analysis of in vitro cultures of chondrocytes from ovine articular cartilage. Isolated cells were seeded in Petri dishes, then expanded to confluence and phenotypically characterized by flow cytometry. The sigmoidal temporal profile of total counts was obtained by classic haemocytometry and corresponding cell size distributions were measured electronically using a Coulter Counter. A mathematical model recently proposed (1) was adopted for quantitative interpretation of these experimental data. The model is based on a 1-D (that is, mass-structured), single-staged population balance approach capable of taking into account contact inhibition at confluence. The model's parameters were determined by fitting measured total cell counts and size distributions. Model reliability was verified by predicting cell proliferation counts and corresponding size distributions at culture times longer than those used when tuning the model's parameters. It was found that adoption of cell mass as the intrinsic characteristic of a growing chondrocyte population enables sigmoidal temporal profiles of total counts in the Petri dish, as well as cell size distributions at 'balanced growth', to be adequately predicted.

Nest suitability, fine-scale population structure and male-mediated dispersal of a solitary ground nesting bee in an urban landscape.

PubMed

López-Uribe, Margarita M; Morreale, Stephen J; Santiago, Christine K; Danforth, Bryan N

2015-01-01

Bees are the primary pollinators of flowering plants in almost all ecosystems. Worldwide declines in bee populations have raised awareness about the importance of their ecological role in maintaining ecosystem functioning. The naturally strong philopatric behavior that some bee species show can be detrimental to population viability through increased probability of inbreeding. Furthermore, bee populations found in human-altered landscapes, such as urban areas, can experience lower levels of gene flow and effective population sizes, increasing potential for inbreeding depression in wild bee populations. In this study, we investigated the fine-scale population structure of the solitary bee Colletes inaequalis in an urbanized landscape. First, we developed a predictive spatial model to detect suitable nesting habitat for this ground nesting bee and to inform our field search for nests. We genotyped 18 microsatellites in 548 female individuals collected from nest aggregations throughout the study area. Genetic relatedness estimates revealed that genetic similarity among individuals was slightly greater within nest aggregations than among randomly chosen individuals. However, genetic structure among nest aggregations was low (Nei's GST = 0.011). Reconstruction of parental genotypes revealed greater genetic relatedness among females than among males within nest aggregations, suggesting male-mediated dispersal as a potentially important mechanism of population connectivity and inbreeding avoidance. Size of nesting patch was positively correlated with effective population size, but not with other estimators of genetic diversity. We detected a positive trend between geographic distance and genetic differentiation between nest aggregations. Our landscape genetic models suggest that increased urbanization is likely associated with higher levels of inbreeding. Overall, these findings emphasize the importance of density and distribution of suitable nesting patches for enhancing bee population abundance and connectivity in human dominated habitats and highlights the critical contribution of landscape genetic studies for enhanced conservation and management of native pollinators.

Nest Suitability, Fine-Scale Population Structure and Male-Mediated Dispersal of a Solitary Ground Nesting Bee in an Urban Landscape

PubMed Central

López-Uribe, Margarita M.; Morreale, Stephen J.; Santiago, Christine K.; Danforth, Bryan N.

2015-01-01

Bees are the primary pollinators of flowering plants in almost all ecosystems. Worldwide declines in bee populations have raised awareness about the importance of their ecological role in maintaining ecosystem functioning. The naturally strong philopatric behavior that some bee species show can be detrimental to population viability through increased probability of inbreeding. Furthermore, bee populations found in human-altered landscapes, such as urban areas, can experience lower levels of gene flow and effective population sizes, increasing potential for inbreeding depression in wild bee populations. In this study, we investigated the fine-scale population structure of the solitary bee Colletes inaequalis in an urbanized landscape. First, we developed a predictive spatial model to detect suitable nesting habitat for this ground nesting bee and to inform our field search for nests. We genotyped 18 microsatellites in 548 female individuals collected from nest aggregations throughout the study area. Genetic relatedness estimates revealed that genetic similarity among individuals was slightly greater within nest aggregations than among randomly chosen individuals. However, genetic structure among nest aggregations was low (Nei’s GST = 0.011). Reconstruction of parental genotypes revealed greater genetic relatedness among females than among males within nest aggregations, suggesting male-mediated dispersal as a potentially important mechanism of population connectivity and inbreeding avoidance. Size of nesting patch was positively correlated with effective population size, but not with other estimators of genetic diversity. We detected a positive trend between geographic distance and genetic differentiation between nest aggregations. Our landscape genetic models suggest that increased urbanization is likely associated with higher levels of inbreeding. Overall, these findings emphasize the importance of density and distribution of suitable nesting patches for enhancing bee population abundance and connectivity in human dominated habitats and highlights the critical contribution of landscape genetic studies for enhanced conservation and management of native pollinators. PMID:25950429

Density-dependent home-range size revealed by spatially explicit capture–recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Efford, M.G.; Dawson, Deanna K.; Jhala, Y.V.; Qureshi, Q.

2016-01-01

The size of animal home ranges often varies inversely with population density among populations of a species. This fact has implications for population monitoring using spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models, in which both the scale of home-range movements σ and population density D usually appear as parameters, and both may vary among populations. It will often be appropriate to model a structural relationship between population-specific values of these parameters, rather than to assume independence. We suggest re-parameterizing the SECR model using kp = σp √Dp, where kp relates to the degree of overlap between home ranges and the subscript p distinguishes populations. We observe that kp is often nearly constant for populations spanning a range of densities. This justifies fitting a model in which the separate kp are replaced by the single parameter k and σp is a density-dependent derived parameter. Continuous density-dependent spatial variation in σ may also be modelled, using a scaled non-Euclidean distance between detectors and the locations of animals. We illustrate these methods with data from automatic photography of tigers (Panthera tigris) across India, in which the variation is among populations, from mist-netting of ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) in Maryland, USA, in which the variation is within a single population over time, and from live-trapping of brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) in New Zealand, modelling spatial variation within one population. Possible applications and limitations of the methods are discussed. A model in which kp is constant, while density varies, provides a parsimonious null model for SECR. The parameter k of the null model is a concise summary of the empirical relationship between home-range size and density that is useful in comparative studies. We expect deviations from this model, particularly the dependence of kp on covariates, to be biologically interesting.

Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

PubMed

Adams, Ben

2016-03-07

A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An assessment of sauger population characteristics on two Tennessee River reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Christy L.; Bettoli, Phillip William; Churchill, Timothy N.

2015-01-01

In 1992, a 356-mm minimum length limit (MLL) was enacted on Kentucky Lake and a 381-mm MLL was enacted on Watts Bar Lake, two mainstem reservoirs on the Tennessee River, in an attempt to reduce exploitation and improve the size structure of the sauger (Sander canadensis) populations. The objectives of this study were to compare sauger population characteristics immediately following (1993–1994) and 15 years after (2008–2009) the regulations took effect, examine spatial and temporal patterns in growth, examine recruitment patterns in each reservoir using a recruitment variability index (RVI), and assess the current likelihood of overfishing. Saugers were collected with experimental gill nets in each reservoir and aged using otoliths. A Beverton-Holt yield-per-recruit model was used to simulate angler yields and estimate the likelihood of growth overfishing. Recruitment overfishing was assessed by examining spawning potential ratios under various MLL and exploitation rate scenarios. The sauger population in Kentucky Lake experienced modest improvements in size and age structure over the 15 years following enactment of more restrictive harvest regulations, whereas the population in Watts Bar Lake changed very little, if at all, in terms of size and age structure. Mean lengths of age-3 sauger were significantly greater in Watts Bar Lake than in Kentucky Lake in both time periods. The RVI values indicated that between 1993 and 2009 the sauger in Kentucky Lake displayed more stable recruitment than the Watts Bar Lake population. Neither population exhibited signs of growth overfishing in 2008–09 under the current length limits; however, the Watts Bar Lake population would be susceptible to recruitment overfishing at high (>40%) exploitation rates if natural mortality was as low as 20%. These analyses have demonstrated that the Watts Bar Lake and Kentucky Lake populations, in terms of size and age structure, have remained relatively stable over 15+ years and the MLLs appear to be conserving the stocks.

Effect of dispersal at range edges on the structure of species ranges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; O'Connor, R.J.; Krohn, W.B.

2006-01-01

Range edges are of particular interest to ecology because they hold key insights into the limits of the realized niche and associated population dynamics. A recent feature of Oikos summarized the state of the art on range edge ecology. While the typical question is what causes range edges, another important question is how range edges influence the distribution of abundances across a species geographic range when dispersal is present. We used a single species population dynamics model on a coupled-lattice to determine the effects of dispersal on peripheral populations as compared to populations at the core of the range. In the absence of resource gradients, the reduced neighborhood and thus lower connectivity or higher isolation among populations at the range edge alone led to significantly lower population sizes in the periphery of the range than in the core. Lower population sizes mean higher extinction risks and lower adaptability at the range edge, which could inhibit or slow range expansions, and thus effectively stabilize range edges. The strength of this effect depended on the potential population growth rate and the maximum dispersal distance. Lower potential population growth rates led to a stronger effect of dispersal resulting in a higher difference in population sizes between the two areas. The differential effect of dispersal on population sizes at the core and periphery of the range in the absence of resource gradients implies that traditional, habitat-based distribution models could result in misleading conclusions about the habitat quality in the periphery. Lower population sizes at the periphery are also relevant to conservation, because habitat removal not only eliminates populations but also creates new edges. Populations bordering these new edges may experience declines, due to their increased isolation. ?? OIKOS.

Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

2012-01-01

Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the "Testing Matrix Models" working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

2012-01-01

Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

A structured population model with diffusion in structure space.

PubMed

Pugliese, Andrea; Milner, Fabio

2018-05-09

A structured population model is described and analyzed, in which individual dynamics is stochastic. The model consists of a PDE of advection-diffusion type in the structure variable. The population may represent, for example, the density of infected individuals structured by pathogen density x, [Formula: see text]. The individuals with density [Formula: see text] are not infected, but rather susceptible or recovered. Their dynamics is described by an ODE with a source term that is the exact flux from the diffusion and advection as [Formula: see text]. Infection/reinfection is then modeled moving a fraction of these individuals into the infected class by distributing them in the structure variable through a probability density function. Existence of a global-in-time solution is proven, as well as a classical bifurcation result about equilibrium solutions: a net reproduction number [Formula: see text] is defined that separates the case of only the trivial equilibrium existing when [Formula: see text] from the existence of another-nontrivial-equilibrium when [Formula: see text]. Numerical simulation results are provided to show the stabilization towards the positive equilibrium when [Formula: see text] and towards the trivial one when [Formula: see text], result that is not proven analytically. Simulations are also provided to show the Allee effect that helps boost population sizes at low densities.

Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

2012-01-01

American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

From individuals to populations to communities: a dynamic energy budget model of marine ecosystem size-spectrum including life history diversity.

PubMed

Maury, Olivier; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe

2013-05-07

Individual metabolism, predator-prey relationships, and the role of biodiversity are major factors underlying the dynamics of food webs and their response to environmental variability. Despite their crucial, complementary and interacting influences, they are usually not considered simultaneously in current marine ecosystem models. In an attempt to fill this gap and determine if these factors and their interaction are sufficient to allow realistic community structure and dynamics to emerge, we formulate a mathematical model of the size-structured dynamics of marine communities which integrates mechanistically individual, population and community levels. The model represents the transfer of energy generated in both time and size by an infinite number of interacting fish species spanning from very small to very large species. It is based on standard individual level assumptions of the Dynamic Energy Budget theory (DEB) as well as important ecological processes such as opportunistic size-based predation and competition for food. Resting on the inter-specific body-size scaling relationships of the DEB theory, the diversity of life-history traits (i.e. biodiversity) is explicitly integrated. The stationary solutions of the model as well as the transient solutions arising when environmental signals (e.g. variability of primary production and temperature) propagate through the ecosystem are studied using numerical simulations. It is shown that in the absence of density-dependent feedback processes, the model exhibits unstable oscillations. Density-dependent schooling probability and schooling-dependent predatory and disease mortalities are proposed to be important stabilizing factors allowing stationary solutions to be reached. At the community level, the shape and slope of the obtained quasi-linear stationary spectrum matches well with empirical studies. When oscillations of primary production are simulated, the model predicts that the variability propagates along the spectrum in a given frequency-dependent size range before decreasing for larger sizes. At the species level, the simulations show that small and large species dominate the community successively (small species being more abundant at small sizes and large species being more abundant at large sizes) and that the total biomass of a species decreases with its maximal size which again corroborates empirical studies. Our results indicate that the simultaneous consideration of individual growth and reproduction, size-structured trophic interactions, the diversity of life-history traits and a density-dependent stabilizing process allow realistic community structure and dynamics to emerge without any arbitrary prescription. As a logical consequence of our model construction and a basis for future studies, we define the function Φ as the relative contribution of each species to the total biomass of the ecosystem, for any given size. We argue that this function is a measure of the functional role of biodiversity characterizing the impact of the structure of the community (its species composition) on its function (the relative proportions of losses, dissipation and biological work). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Match or mismatch: the influence of phenology on size-dependent life history and divergence in population structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borcherding, Jost; Beeck, Peter; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Scharf, Werner R.

2010-01-01

Summary 1. In gape-limited predators, body size asymmetries determine the outcome of predator-prey interactions. Due to ontogenetic changes in body size, the intensity of intra- and interspecific interactions may change rapidly between the match situation of a predator-prey system and the mismatch situation in which competition, including competition with the prey, dominates. 2. Based on a physiologically structured population model using the European perch (Perca fluviatilis), analysis was performed on how prey density (bream, Abramis brama), initial size differences in the young-of-the-year (YOY) age cohort of the predator, and phenology (time-gap in hatching of predator and prey) influence the size structure of the predator cohort. 3. In relation to the seasonality of reproduction, the match situation of the predator-prey system occurred when perch hatched earlier than bream and when no gape-size limitations existed, leading to decreased size divergence in the predator age cohort. Decreased size divergence was also found when bream hatched much earlier than perch, preventing perch predation on bream occurring, which, in turn, increased the competitive interaction of the perch with bream for the common prey, zooplankton; i.e. the mismatch situation in which also the mean size of the age cohort of the predator decreased. 4. In between the total match and the mismatch, however, only the largest individuals of the perch age cohort were able to prey on the bream, while smaller conspecifics got trapped in competition with each other and with bream for zooplankton, leading to enlarged differences in growth that increased size divergence. 5. The modelling results were combined with 7 years of field data in a lake, where large differences in the length-frequency distribution of YOY perch were observed after their first summer. These field data corroborate that phenology and prey density per predator are important mechanisms in determining size differences within the YOY age cohort of the predator. 6. The results demonstrate that the switch between competitive interactions and a predator-prey relationship depended on phenology. This resulted in pronounced size differences in the YOY age cohort, which had far-reaching consequences for the entire predator population.

Effective Network Size Predicted From Simulations of Pathogen Outbreaks Through Social Networks Provides a Novel Measure of Structure-Standardized Group Size.

PubMed

McCabe, Collin M; Nunn, Charles L

2018-01-01

The transmission of infectious disease through a population is often modeled assuming that interactions occur randomly in groups, with all individuals potentially interacting with all other individuals at an equal rate. However, it is well known that pairs of individuals vary in their degree of contact. Here, we propose a measure to account for such heterogeneity: effective network size (ENS), which refers to the size of a maximally complete network (i.e., unstructured, where all individuals interact with all others equally) that corresponds to the outbreak characteristics of a given heterogeneous, structured network. We simulated susceptible-infected (SI) and susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models on maximally complete networks to produce idealized outbreak duration distributions for a disease on a network of a given size. We also simulated the transmission of these same diseases on random structured networks and then used the resulting outbreak duration distributions to predict the ENS for the group or population. We provide the methods to reproduce these analyses in a public R package, "enss." Outbreak durations of simulations on randomly structured networks were more variable than those on complete networks, but tended to have similar mean durations of disease spread. We then applied our novel metric to empirical primate networks taken from the literature and compared the information represented by our ENSs to that by other established social network metrics. In AICc model comparison frameworks, group size and mean distance proved to be the metrics most consistently associated with ENS for SI simulations, while group size, centralization, and modularity were most consistently associated with ENS for SIR simulations. In all cases, ENS was shown to be associated with at least two other independent metrics, supporting its use as a novel metric. Overall, our study provides a proof of concept for simulation-based approaches toward constructing metrics of ENS, while also revealing the conditions under which this approach is most promising.

Pathogen survival trajectories: an eco-environmental approach to the modeling of human campylobacteriosis ecology.

PubMed Central

Skelly, Chris; Weinstein, Phil

2003-01-01

Campylobacteriosis, like many human diseases, has its own ecology in which the propagation of human infection and disease depends on pathogen survival and finding new hosts in order to replicate and sustain the pathogen population. The complexity of this process, a process common to other enteric pathogens, has hampered control efforts. Many unknowns remain, resulting in a poorly understood disease ecology. To provide structure to these unknowns and help direct further research and intervention, we propose an eco-environmental modeling approach for campylobacteriosis. This modeling approach follows the pathogen population as it moves through the environments that define the physical structure of its ecology. In this paper, we term the ecologic processes and environments through which these populations move "pathogen survival trajectories." Although such a modeling approach could have veterinary applications, our emphasis is on human campylobacteriosis and focuses on human exposures to Campylobacter through feces, food, and aquatic environments. The pathogen survival trajectories that lead to human exposure include ecologic filters that limit population size, e.g., cooking food to kill Campylobacter. Environmental factors that influence the size of the pathogen reservoirs include temperature, nutrient availability, and moisture availability during the period of time the pathogen population is moving through the environment between infected and susceptible hosts. We anticipate that the modeling approach proposed here will work symbiotically with traditional epidemiologic and microbiologic research to help guide and evaluate the acquisition of new knowledge about the ecology, eventual intervention, and control of campylobacteriosis. PMID:12515674

Habitat fragmentation effects depend on complex interactions between population size and dispersal ability: Modeling influences of roads, agriculture and residential development across a range of life-history characteristics [chapter 20

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Bradley W. Compton; Kevin McGarigal

2010-01-01

Habitat loss and fragmentation are widely believed to be the most important drivers of extinction (Leakey and Lewin 1995). The habitats in which organisms live are spatially structured at a number of scales, and these patterns interact with organism perception and behavior to drive population dynamics and community structure (Johnson et al. 1992). Anthropogenic habitat...

Two disjunct Pleistocene populations and anisotropic postglacial expansion shaped the current genetic structure of the relict plant Amborella trichopoda

PubMed Central

Tournebize, Rémi; Manel, Stéphanie; Vigouroux, Yves; Munoz, François; de Kochko, Alexandre

2017-01-01

Past climate fluctuations shaped the population dynamics of organisms in space and time, and have impacted their present intra-specific genetic structure. Demo-genetic modelling allows inferring the way past demographic and migration dynamics have determined this structure. Amborella trichopoda is an emblematic relict plant endemic to New Caledonia, widely distributed in the understory of non-ultramafic rainforests. We assessed the influence of the last glacial climates on the demographic history and the paleo-distribution of 12 Amborella populations covering the whole current distribution. We performed coalescent genetic modelling of these dynamics, based on both whole-genome resequencing and microsatellite genotyping data. We found that the two main genetic groups of Amborella were shaped by the divergence of two ancestral populations during the last glacial maximum. From 12,800 years BP, the South ancestral population has expanded 6.3-fold while the size of the North population has remained stable. Recent asymmetric gene flow between the groups further contributed to the phylogeographical pattern. Spatially explicit coalescent modelling allowed us to estimate the location of ancestral populations with good accuracy (< 22 km) and provided indications regarding the mid-elevation pathways that facilitated post-glacial expansion. PMID:28820899

FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

PubMed

Grefenstette, John J; Brown, Shawn T; Rosenfeld, Roni; DePasse, Jay; Stone, Nathan T B; Cooley, Phillip C; Wheaton, William D; Fyshe, Alona; Galloway, David D; Sriram, Anuroop; Guclu, Hasan; Abraham, Thomas; Burke, Donald S

2013-10-08

Mathematical and computational models provide valuable tools that help public health planners to evaluate competing health interventions, especially for novel circumstances that cannot be examined through observational or controlled studies, such as pandemic influenza. The spread of diseases like influenza depends on the mixing patterns within the population, and these mixing patterns depend in part on local factors including the spatial distribution and age structure of the population, the distribution of size and composition of households, employment status and commuting patterns of adults, and the size and age structure of schools. Finally, public health planners must take into account the health behavior patterns of the population, patterns that often vary according to socioeconomic factors such as race, household income, and education levels. FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics) is a freely available open-source agent-based modeling system based closely on models used in previously published studies of pandemic influenza. This version of FRED uses open-access census-based synthetic populations that capture the demographic and geographic heterogeneities of the population, including realistic household, school, and workplace social networks. FRED epidemic models are currently available for every state and county in the United States, and for selected international locations. State and county public health planners can use FRED to explore the effects of possible influenza epidemics in specific geographic regions of interest and to help evaluate the effect of interventions such as vaccination programs and school closure policies. FRED is available under a free open source license in order to contribute to the development of better modeling tools and to encourage open discussion of modeling tools being used to evaluate public health policies. We also welcome participation by other researchers in the further development of FRED.

Likelihood analysis of spatial capture-recapture models for stratified or class structured populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Sutherland, Christopher S.; Fuller, Angela K.; Sun, Catherine C.

2015-01-01

We develop a likelihood analysis framework for fitting spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models to data collected on class structured or stratified populations. Our interest is motivated by the necessity of accommodating the problem of missing observations of individual class membership. This is particularly problematic in SCR data arising from DNA analysis of scat, hair or other material, which frequently yields individual identity but fails to identify the sex. Moreover, this can represent a large fraction of the data and, given the typically small sample sizes of many capture-recapture studies based on DNA information, utilization of the data with missing sex information is necessary. We develop the class structured likelihood for the case of missing covariate values, and then we address the scaling of the likelihood so that models with and without class structured parameters can be formally compared regardless of missing values. We apply our class structured model to black bear data collected in New York in which sex could be determined for only 62 of 169 uniquely identified individuals. The models containing sex-specificity of both the intercept of the SCR encounter probability model and the distance coefficient, and including a behavioral response are strongly favored by log-likelihood. Estimated population sex ratio is strongly influenced by sex structure in model parameters illustrating the importance of rigorous modeling of sex differences in capture-recapture models.

[Population ecology of Crocodylus acutus (Reptilia: Crocodylidae) in Palmasola lagoon, Oaxaca, Mexico].

PubMed

García-Grajales, Jesús; Silva, Alejandra Buenrostro

2014-03-01

Population ecology of Crocodylus acutus (Reptilia: Crocodylidae) in Palmasola lagoon, Oaxaca, Mexico. Abundance and population structure are important parameters to evaluate and compare the conservation status of a population over time in a given area. This study describes the population abundance and structure of Crocodylus acutus in Palmasola lagoon, Oaxaca. The field works consisted of night surveys during the new moon phase, between the 21:00 and 24:00h. These were conducted during the dry and wet seasons and counted the number of individuals to obtain population estimates. Recorded encounter rates ranged from 32 to 109.3ind./ km in 40 journeys deployed with an average time of 18 minutes browsing. The estimated population size using the Messel's model ranged from 32.7 to 93 individuals. For both seasons, there was a marked dominance of subadults, followed by juveniles and to a lesser extent adult individuals, as well as undetermined individuals (i.e. unknown body/size/length), in both seasons. There was also a significant association with mangrove areas (26.1%) by juveniles; the subadults's individual use of superficial water (22.7%) and mangrove areas (15.7%); meanwhile the adults were observed on superficial water (9.7%). This information contributes to our understanding of the population ecology of C. acutus in the Palmasola lagoon where the estimated population size seems to show higher values when compared to other reports in the country.

Inferring population-level contact heterogeneity from common epidemic data

PubMed Central

Stack, J. Conrad; Bansal, Shweta; Kumar, V. S. Anil; Grenfell, Bryan

2013-01-01

Models of infectious disease spread that incorporate contact heterogeneity through contact networks are an important tool for epidemiologists studying disease dynamics and assessing intervention strategies. One of the challenges of contact network epidemiology has been the difficulty of collecting individual and population-level data needed to develop an accurate representation of the underlying host population's contact structure. In this study, we evaluate the utility of common epidemiological measures (R0, epidemic peak size, duration and final size) for inferring the degree of heterogeneity in a population's unobserved contact structure through a Bayesian approach. We test the method using ground truth data and find that some of these epidemiological metrics are effective at classifying contact heterogeneity. The classification is also consistent across pathogen transmission probabilities, and so can be applied even when this characteristic is unknown. In particular, the reproductive number, R0, turns out to be a poor classifier of the degree heterogeneity, while, unexpectedly, final epidemic size is a powerful predictor of network structure across the range of heterogeneity. We also evaluate our framework on empirical epidemiological data from past and recent outbreaks to demonstrate its application in practice and to gather insights about the relevance of particular contact structures for both specific systems and general classes of infectious disease. We thus introduce a simple approach that can shed light on the unobserved connectivity of a host population given epidemic data. Our study has the potential to inform future data-collection efforts and study design by driving our understanding of germane epidemic measures, and highlights a general inferential approach to learning about host contact structure in contemporary or historic populations of humans and animals. PMID:23034353

Eco-genetic modeling of contemporary life-history evolution.

PubMed

Dunlop, Erin S; Heino, Mikko; Dieckmann, Ulf

2009-10-01

We present eco-genetic modeling as a flexible tool for exploring the course and rates of multi-trait life-history evolution in natural populations. We build on existing modeling approaches by combining features that facilitate studying the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of realistically structured populations. In particular, the joint consideration of age and size structure enables the analysis of phenotypically plastic populations with more than a single growth trajectory, and ecological feedback is readily included in the form of density dependence and frequency dependence. Stochasticity and life-history trade-offs can also be implemented. Critically, eco-genetic models permit the incorporation of salient genetic detail such as a population's genetic variances and covariances and the corresponding heritabilities, as well as the probabilistic inheritance and phenotypic expression of quantitative traits. These inclusions are crucial for predicting rates of evolutionary change on both contemporary and longer timescales. An eco-genetic model can be tightly coupled with empirical data and therefore may have considerable practical relevance, in terms of generating testable predictions and evaluating alternative management measures. To illustrate the utility of these models, we present as an example an eco-genetic model used to study harvest-induced evolution of multiple traits in Atlantic cod. The predictions of our model (most notably that harvesting induces a genetic reduction in age and size at maturation, an increase or decrease in growth capacity depending on the minimum-length limit, and an increase in reproductive investment) are corroborated by patterns observed in wild populations. The predicted genetic changes occur together with plastic changes that could phenotypically mask the former. Importantly, our analysis predicts that evolutionary changes show little signs of reversal following a harvest moratorium. This illustrates how predictions offered by eco-genetic models can enable and guide evolutionarily sustainable resource management.

Re-examination of population structure and phylogeography of hawksbill turtles in the wider Caribbean using longer mtDNA sequences.

PubMed

Leroux, Robin A; Dutton, Peter H; Abreu-Grobois, F Alberto; Lagueux, Cynthia J; Campbell, Cathi L; Delcroix, Eric; Chevalier, Johan; Horrocks, Julia A; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Troëng, Sebastian; Harrison, Emma; Stapleton, Seth

2012-01-01

Management of the critically endangered hawksbill turtle in the Wider Caribbean (WC) has been hampered by knowledge gaps regarding stock structure. We carried out a comprehensive stock structure re-assessment of 11 WC hawksbill rookeries using longer mtDNA sequences, larger sample sizes (N = 647), and additional rookeries compared to previous surveys. Additional variation detected by 740 bp sequences between populations allowed us to differentiate populations such as Barbados-Windward and Guadeloupe (F (st) = 0.683, P < 0.05) that appeared genetically indistinguishable based on shorter 380 bp sequences. POWSIM analysis showed that longer sequences improved power to detect population structure and that when N < 30, increasing the variation detected was as effective in increasing power as increasing sample size. Geographic patterns of genetic variation suggest a model of periodic long-distance colonization coupled with region-wide dispersal and subsequent secondary contact within the WC. Mismatch analysis results for individual clades suggest a general population expansion in the WC following a historic bottleneck about 100 000-300 000 years ago. We estimated an effective female population size (N (ef)) of 6000-9000 for the WC, similar to the current estimated numbers of breeding females, highlighting the importance of these regional rookeries to maintaining genetic diversity in hawksbills. Our results provide a basis for standardizing future work to 740 bp sequence reads and establish a more complete baseline for determining stock boundaries in this migratory marine species. Finally, our findings illustrate the value of maintaining an archive of specimens for re-analysis as new markers become available.

A simulation analysis to characterize the dynamics of vaccinating behaviour on contact networks.

PubMed

Perisic, Ana; Bauch, Chris T

2009-05-28

Human behavior influences infectious disease transmission, and numerous "prevalence-behavior" models have analyzed this interplay. These previous analyses assumed homogeneously mixing populations without spatial or social structure. However, spatial and social heterogeneity are known to significantly impact transmission dynamics and are particularly relevant for certain diseases. Previous work has demonstrated that social contact structure can change the individual incentive to vaccinate, thus enabling eradication of a disease under a voluntary vaccination policy when the corresponding homogeneous mixing model predicts that eradication is impossible due to free rider effects. Here, we extend this work and characterize the range of possible behavior-prevalence dynamics on a network. We simulate transmission of a vaccine-preventable infection through a random, static contact network. Individuals choose whether or not to vaccinate on any given day according to perceived risks of vaccination and infection. We find three possible outcomes for behavior-prevalence dynamics on this type of network: small final number vaccinated and final epidemic size (due to rapid control through voluntary ring vaccination); large final number vaccinated and significant final epidemic size (due to imperfect voluntary ring vaccination), and little or no vaccination and large final epidemic size (corresponding to little or no voluntary ring vaccination). We also show that the social contact structure enables eradication under a broad range of assumptions, except when vaccine risk is sufficiently high, the disease risk is sufficiently low, or individuals vaccinate too late for the vaccine to be effective. For populations where infection can spread only through social contact network, relatively small differences in parameter values relating to perceived risk or vaccination behavior at the individual level can translate into large differences in population-level outcomes such as final size and final number vaccinated. The qualitative outcome of rational, self interested behaviour under a voluntary vaccination policy can vary substantially depending on interactions between social contact structure, perceived vaccine and disease risks, and the way that individual vaccination decision-making is modelled.

A simulation analysis to characterize the dynamics of vaccinating behaviour on contact networks

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Human behavior influences infectious disease transmission, and numerous "prevalence-behavior" models have analyzed this interplay. These previous analyses assumed homogeneously mixing populations without spatial or social structure. However, spatial and social heterogeneity are known to significantly impact transmission dynamics and are particularly relevant for certain diseases. Previous work has demonstrated that social contact structure can change the individual incentive to vaccinate, thus enabling eradication of a disease under a voluntary vaccination policy when the corresponding homogeneous mixing model predicts that eradication is impossible due to free rider effects. Here, we extend this work and characterize the range of possible behavior-prevalence dynamics on a network. Methods We simulate transmission of a vaccine-prevetable infection through a random, static contact network. Individuals choose whether or not to vaccinate on any given day according to perceived risks of vaccination and infection. Results We find three possible outcomes for behavior-prevalence dynamics on this type of network: small final number vaccinated and final epidemic size (due to rapid control through voluntary ring vaccination); large final number vaccinated and significant final epidemic size (due to imperfect voluntary ring vaccination), and little or no vaccination and large final epidemic size (corresponding to little or no voluntary ring vaccination). We also show that the social contact structure enables eradication under a broad range of assumptions, except when vaccine risk is sufficiently high, the disease risk is sufficiently low, or individuals vaccinate too late for the vaccine to be effective. Conclusion For populations where infection can spread only through social contact network, relatively small differences in parameter values relating to perceived risk or vaccination behavior at the individual level can translate into large differences in population-level outcomes such as final size and final number vaccinated. The qualitative outcome of rational, self interested behaviour under a voluntary vaccination policy can vary substantially depending on interactions between social contact structure, perceived vaccine and disease risks, and the way that individual vaccination decision-making is modelled. PMID:19476616

Impact of correlation of predictors on discrimination of risk models in development and external populations.

PubMed

Kundu, Suman; Mazumdar, Madhu; Ferket, Bart

2017-04-19

The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of risk models is known to be influenced by differences in case-mix and effect size of predictors. The impact of heterogeneity in correlation among predictors has however been under investigated. We sought to evaluate how correlation among predictors affects the AUC in development and external populations. We simulated hypothetical populations using two different methods based on means, standard deviations, and correlation of two continuous predictors. In the first approach, the distribution and correlation of predictors were assumed for the total population. In the second approach, these parameters were modeled conditional on disease status. In both approaches, multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to predict disease risk in individuals. Each risk model developed in a population was validated in the remaining populations to investigate external validity. For both approaches, we observed that the magnitude of the AUC in the development and external populations depends on the correlation among predictors. Lower AUCs were estimated in scenarios of both strong positive and negative correlation, depending on the direction of predictor effects and the simulation method. However, when adjusted effect sizes of predictors were specified in the opposite directions, increasingly negative correlation consistently improved the AUC. AUCs in external validation populations were higher or lower than in the derivation cohort, even in the presence of similar predictor effects. Discrimination of risk prediction models should be assessed in various external populations with different correlation structures to make better inferences about model generalizability.

The biogeodynamics of microbial landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battin, T. J.; Hödl, I.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Suweis, S. S.; Rinaldo, A.

2011-12-01

Spatial configuration is fundamental in defining the structural and functional properties of biological systems. Biofilms, surface-attached and matrix-enclosed microorganisms, are a striking example of spatial organisation. Coupled biotic and abiotic processes shape the spatial organisation across scales of the landscapes formed by these benthic biofilms in streams and rivers. Experimenting with such biofilms in streams, we found that, depending on the streambed topography and the related hydrodynamic microenvironment, biofilm landscapes form increasingly diverging spatial patterns as they grow. Strikingly, however, cluster size distributions tend to converge even in contrasting hydrodynamic microenvironments. To reproduce the observed cluster size distributions we used a continuous, size-structured population model. The model accounts for the formation, growth, erosion and merging of biofilm clusters. Our results suggest not only that hydrodynamic forcing induce the diverging patterning of the microbial landscape, but also that microorganisms have developed strategies to equally exploit spatial resources independently of the physical structure of the microenvironment where they live.

A First-Principles Model of Early Evolution: Emergence of Gene Families, Species, and Preferred Protein Folds

PubMed Central

Zeldovich, Konstantin B; Chen, Peiqiu; Shakhnovich, Boris E; Shakhnovich, Eugene I

2007-01-01

In this work we develop a microscopic physical model of early evolution where phenotype—organism life expectancy—is directly related to genotype—the stability of its proteins in their native conformations—which can be determined exactly in the model. Simulating the model on a computer, we consistently observe the “Big Bang” scenario whereby exponential population growth ensues as soon as favorable sequence–structure combinations (precursors of stable proteins) are discovered. Upon that, random diversity of the structural space abruptly collapses into a small set of preferred proteins. We observe that protein folds remain stable and abundant in the population at timescales much greater than mutation or organism lifetime, and the distribution of the lifetimes of dominant folds in a population approximately follows a power law. The separation of evolutionary timescales between discovery of new folds and generation of new sequences gives rise to emergence of protein families and superfamilies whose sizes are power-law distributed, closely matching the same distributions for real proteins. On the population level we observe emergence of species—subpopulations that carry similar genomes. Further, we present a simple theory that relates stability of evolving proteins to the sizes of emerging genomes. Together, these results provide a microscopic first-principles picture of how first-gene families developed in the course of early evolution. PMID:17630830

A first-principles model of early evolution: emergence of gene families, species, and preferred protein folds.

PubMed

Zeldovich, Konstantin B; Chen, Peiqiu; Shakhnovich, Boris E; Shakhnovich, Eugene I

2007-07-01

In this work we develop a microscopic physical model of early evolution where phenotype--organism life expectancy--is directly related to genotype--the stability of its proteins in their native conformations-which can be determined exactly in the model. Simulating the model on a computer, we consistently observe the "Big Bang" scenario whereby exponential population growth ensues as soon as favorable sequence-structure combinations (precursors of stable proteins) are discovered. Upon that, random diversity of the structural space abruptly collapses into a small set of preferred proteins. We observe that protein folds remain stable and abundant in the population at timescales much greater than mutation or organism lifetime, and the distribution of the lifetimes of dominant folds in a population approximately follows a power law. The separation of evolutionary timescales between discovery of new folds and generation of new sequences gives rise to emergence of protein families and superfamilies whose sizes are power-law distributed, closely matching the same distributions for real proteins. On the population level we observe emergence of species--subpopulations that carry similar genomes. Further, we present a simple theory that relates stability of evolving proteins to the sizes of emerging genomes. Together, these results provide a microscopic first-principles picture of how first-gene families developed in the course of early evolution.

The mechanism of monomer transfer between two structurally distinct PrP oligomers

PubMed Central

Armiento, Aurora; Martin, Davy; Lepejova, Nad’a

2017-01-01

In mammals, Prion pathology refers to a class of infectious neuropathologies whose mechanism is based on the self-perpetuation of structural information stored in the pathological conformer. The characterisation of the PrP folding landscape has revealed the existence of a plethora of pathways conducing to the formation of structurally different assemblies with different biological properties. However, the biochemical interconnection between these diverse assemblies remains unclear. The PrP oligomerisation process leads to the formation of neurotoxic and soluble assemblies called O1 oligomers with a high size heterodispersity. By combining the measurements in time of size distribution and average size with kinetic models and data assimilation, we revealed the existence of at least two structurally distinct sets of assemblies, termed Oa and Ob, forming O1 assemblies. We propose a kinetic model representing the main processes in prion aggregation pathway: polymerisation, depolymerisation, and disintegration. The two groups interact by exchanging monomers through a disintegration process that increases the size of Oa. Our observations suggest that PrP oligomers constitute a highly dynamic population. PMID:28746342

The mechanism of monomer transfer between two structurally distinct PrP oligomers.

PubMed

Armiento, Aurora; Moireau, Philippe; Martin, Davy; Lepejova, Nad'a; Doumic, Marie; Rezaei, Human

2017-01-01

In mammals, Prion pathology refers to a class of infectious neuropathologies whose mechanism is based on the self-perpetuation of structural information stored in the pathological conformer. The characterisation of the PrP folding landscape has revealed the existence of a plethora of pathways conducing to the formation of structurally different assemblies with different biological properties. However, the biochemical interconnection between these diverse assemblies remains unclear. The PrP oligomerisation process leads to the formation of neurotoxic and soluble assemblies called O1 oligomers with a high size heterodispersity. By combining the measurements in time of size distribution and average size with kinetic models and data assimilation, we revealed the existence of at least two structurally distinct sets of assemblies, termed Oa and Ob, forming O1 assemblies. We propose a kinetic model representing the main processes in prion aggregation pathway: polymerisation, depolymerisation, and disintegration. The two groups interact by exchanging monomers through a disintegration process that increases the size of Oa. Our observations suggest that PrP oligomers constitute a highly dynamic population.

A new mechanistic approach for the further development of a population with established size bimodality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heerman, Lisa; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Borcherding, Jost

2017-01-01

Usually, the origin of a within-cohort bimodal size distribution is assumed to be caused by initial size differences or by one discrete period of accelerated growth for one part of the population. The aim of this study was to determine if more continuous pathways exist allowing shifts from the small to the large fraction within a bimodal age-cohort. Therefore, a Eurasian perch population, which had already developed a bimodal size-distribution and had differential resource use of the two size-cohorts, was examined. Results revealed that formation of a bimodal size-distribution can be a continuous process. Perch from the small size-cohort were able to grow into the large size-cohort by feeding on macroinvertebrates not used by their conspecifics. The diet shifts were accompanied by morphological shape changes. Intra-specific competition seemed to trigger the development towards an increasing number of large individuals. A stage-structured matrix model confirmed these assumptions. The fact that bimodality can be a continuous process is important to consider for the understanding of ecological processes and links within ecosystems.

A new mechanistic approach for the further development of a population with established size bimodality

PubMed Central

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Borcherding, Jost

2017-01-01

Usually, the origin of a within-cohort bimodal size distribution is assumed to be caused by initial size differences or by one discrete period of accelerated growth for one part of the population. The aim of this study was to determine if more continuous pathways exist allowing shifts from the small to the large fraction within a bimodal age-cohort. Therefore, a Eurasian perch population, which had already developed a bimodal size-distribution and had differential resource use of the two size-cohorts, was examined. Results revealed that formation of a bimodal size-distribution can be a continuous process. Perch from the small size-cohort were able to grow into the large size-cohort by feeding on macroinvertebrates not used by their conspecifics. The diet shifts were accompanied by morphological shape changes. Intra-specific competition seemed to trigger the development towards an increasing number of large individuals. A stage-structured matrix model confirmed these assumptions. The fact that bimodality can be a continuous process is important to consider for the understanding of ecological processes and links within ecosystems. PMID:28650963

The structure of the distant Kuiper belt in a Nice model scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pike, Rosemary E.; Lawler, Samantha; Brasser, Ramon; Shankman, Cory; Alexandersen, Mike; Kavelaars, J. J.

2016-10-01

By utilizing a well-sampled migration model and characterized survey detections, we demonstrate that the Nice-model scenario results in consistent populations of scattering trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) and several resonant TNO populations, but fails to reproduce the large population of 5:1 resonators discovered in surveys. We examine in detail the TNO populations implanted by the Nice model simulation from Brasser and Morbidelli (2013, B&M). This analysis focuses on the region from 25-155 AU, probing the classical, scattering, detached, and major resonant populations. Additional integrations were necessary to classify the test particles and determine population sizes and characteristics. The classified simulation objects are compared to the real TNOs from the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS), CFEPS high latitude fields, and the Alexandersen (2016) survey. These surveys all include a detailed characterization of survey depth, pointing, and tracking efficiency, which allows detailed testing of this independently produced model of TNO populations. In the B&M model, the regions of the outer Solar System populated via capture of scattering objects are consistent with survey constraints. The scattering TNOs and most n:1 resonant populations have consistent orbital distributions and population sizes with the real detections, as well as a starting disk mass consistent with expectations. The B&M 5:1 resonators have a consistent orbital distribution with the real detections and previous models. However, the B&M 5:1 Neptune resonance is underpopulated by a factor of ~100 and would require a starting proto-planetesimal disk with a mass of ~100 Earth masses. The large population in the 5:1 Neptune resonance is unexplained by scattering capture in a Nice-model scenario, however this model accurately produces the TNO subpopulations that result from scattering object capture and provides additional insight into sub-population orbital distributions.

Stand structure and dynamics of sand pine differ between the Florida panhandle and peninsula

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drewa, P.B.; Platt, W.J.; Kwit, C.; Doyle, T.W.

2008-01-01

Size and age structures of stand populations of numerous tree species exhibit uneven or reverse J-distributions that can persist after non-catastrophic disturbance, especially windstorms. Among disjunct populations of conspecific trees, alternative distributions are also possible and may be attributed to more localized variation in disturbance. Regional differences in structure and demography among disjunct populations of sand pine (Pinus clausa (Chapm. ex Engelm.) Vasey ex Sarg.) in the Florida panhandle and peninsula may result from variation in hurricane regimes associated with each of these populations. We measured size, age, and growth rates of trees from panhandle and peninsula populations and then compiled size and age class distributions. We also characterized hurricanes in both regions over the past century. Size and age structures of panhandle populations were unevenly distributed and exhibited continuous recruitment; peninsula populations were evenly sized and aged and exhibited only periodic recruitment. Since hurricane regimes were similar between regions, historical fire regimes may have been responsible for regional differences in structure of sand pine populations. We hypothesize that fires were locally nonexistent in coastal panhandle populations, while periodic high intensity fires occurred in peninsula populations over the past century. Such differences in local fire regimes could have resulted in the absence of hurricane effects in the peninsula. Increased intensity of hurricanes in the panhandle and current fire suppression patterns in the peninsula may shift characteristics of sand pine stands in both regions. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Research on impacts of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Yayun; Zhao, Tao; Wang, Yanan, E-mail: wyn3615@126.com

Carbon emissions related to population factors have aroused great attention around the world. A multitude of literature mainly focused on single demographic impacts on environmental issues at the national level, and comprehensive studies concerning population-related factors at a city level are rare. This paper employed STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model incorporating PLS (Partial least squares) regression method to examine the influence of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012. Empirically results manifest that urbanization is the paramount driver. Changes in population age structure have significantly positive impacts on carbon emissions,more » and shrinking young population, continuous expansion of working age population and aging population will keep on increasing environmental pressures. Meanwhile, shrinking household size and expanding floating population boost the discharge of carbon emissions. Besides, per capita consumption is an important contributor of carbon emissions, while industry energy intensity is the main inhibitory factor. Based upon these findings and the specific circumstances of Beijing, policies such as promoting clean and renewable energy, improving population quality and advocating low carbon lifestyles should be enhanced to achieve targeted emissions reductions. - Highlights: • We employed the STIRPAT model to identify population-related factors of carbon emissions in Beijing. • Urbanization is the paramount driver of carbon emissions. • Changes in population age structure exert significantly positive impacts on carbon emissions. • Shrinking household size, expanding floating population and improving consumption level increase carbon emissions. • Industry energy intensity decreases carbon emissions.« less

Modeling habitat split: landscape and life history traits determine amphibian extinction thresholds.

PubMed

Fonseca, Carlos Roberto; Coutinho, Renato M; Azevedo, Franciane; Berbert, Juliana M; Corso, Gilberto; Kraenkel, Roberto A

2013-01-01

Habitat split is a major force behind the worldwide decline of amphibian populations, causing community change in richness and species composition. In fragmented landscapes, natural remnants, the terrestrial habitat of the adults, are frequently separated from streams, the aquatic habitat of the larvae. An important question is how this landscape configuration affects population levels and if it can drive species to extinction locally. Here, we put forward the first theoretical model on habitat split which is particularly concerned on how split distance - the distance between the two required habitats - affects population size and persistence in isolated fragments. Our diffusive model shows that habitat split alone is able to generate extinction thresholds. Fragments occurring between the aquatic habitat and a given critical split distance are expected to hold viable populations, while fragments located farther away are expected to be unoccupied. Species with higher reproductive success and higher diffusion rate of post-metamorphic youngs are expected to have farther critical split distances. Furthermore, the model indicates that negative effects of habitat split are poorly compensated by positive effects of fragment size. The habitat split model improves our understanding about spatially structured populations and has relevant implications for landscape design for conservation. It puts on a firm theoretical basis the relation between habitat split and the decline of amphibian populations.

Phase Transition for the Maki-Thompson Rumour Model on a Small-World Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agliari, Elena; Pachon, Angelica; Rodriguez, Pablo M.; Tavani, Flavia

2017-11-01

We consider the Maki-Thompson model for the stochastic propagation of a rumour within a population. In this model the population is made up of "spreaders", "ignorants" and "stiflers"; any spreader attempts to pass the rumour to the other individuals via pair-wise interactions and in case the other individual is an ignorant, it becomes a spreader, while in the other two cases the initiating spreader turns into a stifler. In a finite population the process will eventually reach an equilibrium situation where individuals are either stiflers or ignorants. We extend the original hypothesis of homogenously mixed population by allowing for a small-world network embedding the model, in such a way that interactions occur only between nearest-neighbours. This structure is realized starting from a k-regular ring and by inserting, in the average, c additional links in such a way that k and c are tuneable parameters for the population architecture. We prove that this system exhibits a transition between regimes of localization (where the final number of stiflers is at most logarithmic in the population size) and propagation (where the final number of stiflers grows algebraically with the population size) at a finite value of the network parameter c. A quantitative estimate for the critical value of c is obtained via extensive numerical simulations.

On a nonlocal reaction-diffusion-advection system modelling the growth of phytoplankton with cell quota structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Sze-Bi; Mei, Linfeng; Wang, Feng-Bin

2015-11-01

Phytoplankton species in a water column compete for mineral nutrients and light, and the existing models usually neglect differences in the nutrient content and the amount of light absorbed of individuals. In this current paper, we examine a size-structured and nonlocal reaction-diffusion-advection system which describes the dynamics of a single phytoplankton species in a water column where the species depends simply on light for its growth. Our model is under the assumption that the amount of light absorbed by individuals is proportional to cell size, which varies for populations that reproduce by simple division into two equally-sized daughters. We first establish the existence of a critical death rate and our analysis indicates that the phytoplankton survives if and only if its death rate is less than the critical death rate. The critical death rate depends on a general reproductive rate, the characteristics of the water column (e.g., turbulent diffusion rate, sinking, depth), cell growth, cell division, and cell size.

A Class of Population Covariance Matrices in the Bootstrap Approach to Covariance Structure Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Hayashi, Kentaro; Yanagihara, Hirokazu

2007-01-01

Model evaluation in covariance structure analysis is critical before the results can be trusted. Due to finite sample sizes and unknown distributions of real data, existing conclusions regarding a particular statistic may not be applicable in practice. The bootstrap procedure automatically takes care of the unknown distribution and, for a given…

Defectors Can Create Conditions That Rescue Cooperation

PubMed Central

Waite, Adam James; Cannistra, Caroline; Shou, Wenying

2015-01-01

Cooperation based on the production of costly common goods is observed throughout nature. This is puzzling, as cooperation is vulnerable to exploitation by defectors which enjoy a fitness advantage by consuming the common good without contributing fairly. Depletion of the common good can lead to population collapse and the destruction of cooperation. However, population collapse implies small population size, which, in a structured population, is known to favor cooperation. This happens because small population size increases variability in cooperator frequency across different locations. Since individuals in cooperator-dominated locations (which are most likely cooperators) will grow more than those in defector-dominated locations (which are most likely defectors), cooperators can outgrow defectors globally despite defectors outgrowing cooperators in each location. This raises the possibility that defectors can lead to conditions that sometimes rescue cooperation from defector-induced destruction. We demonstrate multiple mechanisms through which this can occur, using an individual-based approach to model stochastic birth, death, migration, and mutation events. First, during defector-induced population collapse, defectors occasionally go extinct before cooperators by chance, which allows cooperators to grow. Second, empty locations, either preexisting or created by defector-induced population extinction, can favor cooperation because they allow cooperator but not defector migrants to grow. These factors lead to the counterintuitive result that the initial presence of defectors sometimes allows better survival of cooperation compared to when defectors are initially absent. Finally, we find that resource limitation, inducible by defectors, can select for mutations adaptive to resource limitation. When these mutations are initially present at low levels or continuously generated at a moderate rate, they can favor cooperation by further reducing local population size. We predict that in a structured population, small population sizes precipitated by defectors provide a “built-in” mechanism for the persistence of cooperation. PMID:26690946

Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

2014-01-01

We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

Distribution of genotype network sizes in sequence-to-structure genotype-phenotype maps.

PubMed

Manrubia, Susanna; Cuesta, José A

2017-04-01

An essential quantity to ensure evolvability of populations is the navigability of the genotype space. Navigability, understood as the ease with which alternative phenotypes are reached, relies on the existence of sufficiently large and mutually attainable genotype networks. The size of genotype networks (e.g. the number of RNA sequences folding into a particular secondary structure or the number of DNA sequences coding for the same protein structure) is astronomically large in all functional molecules investigated: an exhaustive experimental or computational study of all RNA folds or all protein structures becomes impossible even for moderately long sequences. Here, we analytically derive the distribution of genotype network sizes for a hierarchy of models which successively incorporate features of increasingly realistic sequence-to-structure genotype-phenotype maps. The main feature of these models relies on the characterization of each phenotype through a prototypical sequence whose sites admit a variable fraction of letters of the alphabet. Our models interpolate between two limit distributions: a power-law distribution, when the ordering of sites in the prototypical sequence is strongly constrained, and a lognormal distribution, as suggested for RNA, when different orderings of the same set of sites yield different phenotypes. Our main result is the qualitative and quantitative identification of those features of sequence-to-structure maps that lead to different distributions of genotype network sizes. © 2017 The Author(s).

An example of population-level risk assessments for small mammals using individual-based population models.

PubMed

Schmitt, Walter; Auteri, Domenica; Bastiansen, Finn; Ebeling, Markus; Liu, Chun; Luttik, Robert; Mastitsky, Sergey; Nacci, Diane; Topping, Chris; Wang, Magnus

2016-01-01

This article presents a case study demonstrating the application of 3 individual-based, spatially explicit population models (IBMs, also known as agent-based models) in ecological risk assessments to predict long-term effects of a pesticide to populations of small mammals. The 3 IBMs each used a hypothetical fungicide (FungicideX) in different scenarios: spraying in cereals (common vole, Microtus arvalis), spraying in orchards (field vole, Microtus agrestis), and cereal seed treatment (wood mouse, Apodemus sylvaticus). Each scenario used existing model landscapes, which differed greatly in size and structural complexity. The toxicological profile of FungicideX was defined so that the deterministic long-term first tier risk assessment would result in high risk to small mammals, thus providing the opportunity to use the IBMs for risk assessment refinement (i.e., higher tier risk assessment). Despite differing internal model design and scenarios, results indicated in all 3 cases low population sensitivity unless FungicideX was applied at very high (×10) rates. Recovery from local population impacts was generally fast. Only when patch extinctions occured in simulations of intentionally high acute toxic effects, recovery periods, then determined by recolonization, were of any concern. Conclusions include recommendations for the most important input considerations, including the selection of exposure levels, duration of simulations, statistically robust number of replicates, and endpoints to report. However, further investigation and agreement are needed to develop recommendations for landscape attributes such as size, structure, and crop rotation to define appropriate regulatory risk assessment scenarios. Overall, the application of IBMs provides multiple advantages to higher tier ecological risk assessments for small mammals, including consistent and transparent direct links to specific protection goals, and the consideration of more realistic scenarios. © 2015 SETAC.

Uncertainty in age-specific harvest estimates and consequences for white-tailed deer management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collier, B.A.; Krementz, D.G.

2007-01-01

Age structure proportions (proportion of harvested individuals within each age class) are commonly used as support for regulatory restrictions and input for deer population models. Such use requires critical evaluation when harvest regulations force hunters to selectively harvest specific age classes, due to impact on the underlying population age structure. We used a stochastic population simulation model to evaluate the impact of using harvest proportions to evaluate changes in population age structure under a selective harvest management program at two scales. Using harvest proportions to parameterize the age-specific harvest segment of the model for the local scale showed that predictions of post-harvest age structure did not vary dependent upon whether selective harvest criteria were in use or not. At the county scale, yearling frequency in the post-harvest population increased, but model predictions indicated that post-harvest population size of 2.5 years old males would decline below levels found before implementation of the antler restriction, reducing the number of individuals recruited into older age classes. Across the range of age-specific harvest rates modeled, our simulation predicted that underestimation of age-specific harvest rates has considerable influence on predictions of post-harvest population age structure. We found that the consequence of uncertainty in harvest rates corresponds to uncertainty in predictions of residual population structure, and this correspondence is proportional to scale. Our simulations also indicate that regardless of use of harvest proportions or harvest rates, at either the local or county scale the modeled SHC had a high probability (>0.60 and >0.75, respectively) of eliminating recruitment into >2.5 years old age classes. Although frequently used to increase population age structure, our modeling indicated that selective harvest criteria can decrease or eliminate the number of white-tailed deer recruited into older age classes. Thus, we suggest that using harvest proportions for management planning and evaluation should be viewed with caution. In addition, we recommend that managers focus more attention on estimation of age-specific harvest rates, and modeling approaches which combine harvest rates with information from harvested individuals to further increase their ability to effectively manage deer populations under selective harvest programs. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Jewett, Ethan M.; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright–Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. PMID:27550904

Community- and population-level changes in diatom size structure in a subarctic lake over the last two centuries

PubMed Central

Kerrigan, Elizabeth A.; Irwin, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

Climate change over the last two centuries has been associated with significant shifts in diatom community structure in lakes from the high arctic to temperate latitudes. To test the hypotheses that recent climate warming selects for species of smaller size within communities and a decrease in the average size of species within populations, we quantified the size of individual diatom valves from 10 depths in a sediment core covering the last ∼200 years from a pristine subarctic lake. Over the last ∼200 years, changes in the relative abundance of species of different average size and changes in the average valve size of populations of species contribute equally to the changes in community size structure, but are often opposite in sign, compensating for one another and moderating temporal changes in community size structure. In the surface sediments that correspond to the recent decades when air temperatures have warmed, the mean size of valves in the diatom community has significantly decreased due to an increase in the proportion of smaller-sized planktonic diatom species. PMID:26157637

Size and shape in Melipona quadrifasciata anthidioides Lepeletier, 1836 (Hymenoptera; Meliponini).

PubMed

Nunes, L A; Passos, G B; Carvalho, C A L; Araújo, E D

2013-11-01

This study aimed to identify differences in wing shape among populations of Melipona quadrifasciata anthidioides obtained in 23 locations in the semi-arid region of Bahia state (Brazil). Analysis of the Procrustes distances among mean wing shapes indicated that population structure did not determine shape variation. Instead, populations were structured geographically according to wing size. The Partial Mantel Test between morphometric (shape and size) distance matrices and altitude, taking geographic distances into account, was used for a more detailed understanding of size and shape determinants. A partial Mantel test between morphometris (shape and size) variation and altitude, taking geographic distances into account, revealed that size (but not shape) is largely influenced by altitude (r = 0.54 p < 0.01). These results indicate greater evolutionary constraints for the shape variation, which must be directly associated with aerodynamic issues in this structure. The size, however, indicates that the bees tend to have larger wings in populations located at higher altitudes.

Sex structure and potential female fecundity in a Epinephelus guttatus spawning aggregation: Applying ultrasonic imaging

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whiteman, E.A.; Jennings, C.A.; Nemeth, R.S.

2005-01-01

Ultrasonic imaging was used to determine the spawning population structure and develop a fecundity estimation model for a red hind Epinephelus guttatus spawning aggregation within the Red Hind Bank Marine Conservation District, St Thomas, U.S.V.I. The spawning population showed considerable within-month and between-month variation in population size- and sex-structure. In the spawning season studied, males appeared to arrive at the aggregation site first in December although females represented a large proportion of the catch early in the aggregation periods in January and February. Spawning occurred in January and February, and size frequency distributions suggested that an influx of small females occurred during the second spawning month. An overall sex ratio of 2.9:1 (female:male) was recorded for the whole reproductive season. The sex ratio, however, differed between months and days within months. More females per male were recorded in January than in February when the sex ratio was male biased. Fecundity estimates for this species predicted very high potential fecundities (2.4 ?? 105-2.4 ?? 106 oocytes). The ultrasound model also illustrated a rapid increase in potential female fecundity with total length. Ultrasonic imaging may prove a valuable tool in population assessment for many species and locations in which invasive fishing methods are clearly undesirable. ?? 2005 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Population size, center-periphery, and seed dispersers' effects on the genetic diversity and population structure of the Mediterranean relict shrub Cneorum tricoccon.

PubMed

Lázaro-Nogal, Ana; Matesanz, Silvia; García-Fernández, Alfredo; Traveset, Anna; Valladares, Fernando

2017-09-01

The effect of population size on population genetic diversity and structure has rarely been studied jointly with other factors such as the position of a population within the species' distribution range or the presence of mutualistic partners influencing dispersal. Understanding these determining factors for genetic variation is critical for conservation of relict plants that are generally suffering from genetic deterioration. Working with 16 populations of the vulnerable relict shrub Cneorum tricoccon throughout the majority of its western Mediterranean distribution range, and using nine polymorphic microsatellite markers, we examined the effects of periphery (peripheral vs. central), population size (large vs. small), and seed disperser (introduced carnivores vs. endemic lizards) on the genetic diversity and population structure of the species. Contrasting genetic variation ( H E : 0.04-0.476) was found across populations. Peripheral populations showed lower genetic diversity, but this was dependent on population size. Large peripheral populations showed high levels of genetic diversity, whereas small central populations were less diverse. Significant isolation by distance was detected, indicating that the effect of long-distance gene flow is limited relative to that of genetic drift, probably due to high selfing rates ( F IS  = 0.155-0.887), restricted pollen flow, and ineffective seed dispersal. Bayesian clustering also supported the strong population differentiation and highly fragmented structure. Contrary to expectations, the type of disperser showed no significant effect on either population genetic diversity or structure. Our results challenge the idea of an effect of periphery per se that can be mainly explained by population size, drawing attention to the need of integrative approaches considering different determinants of genetic variation. Furthermore, the very low genetic diversity observed in several small populations and the strong among-population differentiation highlight the conservation value of large populations throughout the species' range, particularly in light of climate change and direct human threats.

Projecting the success of plant restoration with population viability analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, T.J.; Bowles, M.L.; McEachern, A.K.; Brigham, C.A.; Schwartz, M.W.

2003-01-01

Conserving viable populations of plant species requires that they have high probabilities of long-term persistence within natural habitats, such as a chance of extinction in 100 years of less than 5% (Menges 1991, 1998; Brown 1994; Pavlik 1994; Chap. 1, this Vol.). For endangered and threatened species that have been severely reduces in range and whose habitats have been fragmented, important species conservation strategies may include augmenting existing populations or restoring new viable populations (Bowles and Whelan 1994; Chap. 2, this Vol.). Restoration objectives may include increasing population numbers to reduce extinction probability, deterministic manipulations to develop a staged cohort structure, or more complex restoration of a desired genetic structure to allow outcrossing or increase effective population size (DeMauro 1993, 1994; Bowles et al. 1993, 1998; Pavlik 1994; Knapp and Dyer 1998; Chap. 2, this Vol.). These efforts may require translocation of propagules from existing (in situ) populations, or from ex situ botanic gardens or seed storage facilities (Falk et al. 1996; Guerrant and Pavlik 1998; Chap. 2, this Vol.). Population viability analysis (PVA) can provide a critical foundation for plant restoration, as it models demographic projections used to evaluate the probability of population persistence and links plant life history with restoration strategies. It is unknown how well artificially created populations will meet demographic modeling requirements (e.g., due to artificial cohort transitions) and few, if any, PVAs have been applied to restorations. To guide application of PVA to restored populations and to illustrate potential difficulties, we examine effects of planting different life stages, model initial population sizes needed to achieve population viability, and compare demographic characteristics between natural and restored populations. We develop and compare plant population restoration viability analysis (PRVA) case studies of two plant species listed in the USA for which federal recovery planning calls for population restoration: Cirsium pitcheri, a short-lived semelparous herb, and Asclepias meadii, a long-lived iteroparous herb.

Genetic structure of cougar populations across the Wyoming basin: Metapopulation or megapopulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, C.R.; Lindzey, F.G.; McDonald, D.B.

2004-01-01

We examined the genetic structure of 5 Wyoming cougar (Puma concolor) populations surrounding the Wyoming Basin, as well as a population from southwestern Colorado. When using 9 microsatellite DNA loci, observed heterozygosity was similar among populations (HO = 0.49-0.59) and intermediate to that of other large carnivores. Estimates of genetic structure (FST = 0.028, RST = 0.029) and number of migrants per generation (Nm) suggested high gene flow. Nm was lowest between distant populations and highest among adjacent populations. Examination of these data, plus Mantel test results of genetic versus geographic distance (P ??? 0.01), suggested both isolation by distance and an effect of habitat matrix. Bayesian assignment to population based on individual genotypes showed that cougars in this region were best described as a single panmictic population. Total effective population size for cougars in this region ranged from 1,797 to 4,532 depending on mutation model and analytical method used. Based on measures of gene flow, extinction risk in the near future appears low. We found no support for the existence of metapopulation structure among cougars in this region.

Growing the terrestrial planets from the gradual accumulation of submeter-sized objects

PubMed Central

Levison, Harold F.; Kretke, Katherine A.; Walsh, Kevin J.; Bottke, William F.

2015-01-01

Building the terrestrial planets has been a challenge for planet formation models. In particular, classical theories have been unable to reproduce the small mass of Mars and instead predict that a planet near 1.5 astronomical units (AU) should roughly be the same mass as Earth. Recently, a new model called Viscously Stirred Pebble Accretion (VSPA) has been developed that can explain the formation of the gas giants. This model envisions that the cores of the giant planets formed from 100- to 1,000-km bodies that directly accreted a population of pebbles—submeter-sized objects that slowly grew in the protoplanetary disk. Here we apply this model to the terrestrial planet region and find that it can reproduce the basic structure of the inner solar system, including a small Mars and a low-mass asteroid belt. Our models show that for an initial population of planetesimals with sizes similar to those of the main belt asteroids, VSPA becomes inefficient beyond ∼ 1.5 AU. As a result, Mars’s growth is stunted, and nothing large in the asteroid belt can accumulate. PMID:26512109

Growing the terrestrial planets from the gradual accumulation of submeter-sized objects.

PubMed

Levison, Harold F; Kretke, Katherine A; Walsh, Kevin J; Bottke, William F

2015-11-17

Building the terrestrial planets has been a challenge for planet formation models. In particular, classical theories have been unable to reproduce the small mass of Mars and instead predict that a planet near 1.5 astronomical units (AU) should roughly be the same mass as Earth. Recently, a new model called Viscously Stirred Pebble Accretion (VSPA) has been developed that can explain the formation of the gas giants. This model envisions that the cores of the giant planets formed from 100- to 1,000-km bodies that directly accreted a population of pebbles-submeter-sized objects that slowly grew in the protoplanetary disk. Here we apply this model to the terrestrial planet region and find that it can reproduce the basic structure of the inner solar system, including a small Mars and a low-mass asteroid belt. Our models show that for an initial population of planetesimals with sizes similar to those of the main belt asteroids, VSPA becomes inefficient beyond ∼ 1.5 AU. As a result, Mars's growth is stunted, and nothing large in the asteroid belt can accumulate.

Modeling snail breeding in a bioregenerative life support system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalev, V. S.; Manukovsky, N. S.; Tikhomirov, A. A.; Kolmakova, A. A.

2015-07-01

The discrete-time model of snail breeding consists of two sequentially linked submodels: "Stoichiometry" and "Population". In both submodels, a snail population is split up into twelve age groups within one year of age. The first submodel is used to simulate the metabolism of a single snail in each age group via the stoichiometric equation; the second submodel is used to optimize the age structure and the size of the snail population. Daily intake of snail meat by crewmen is a guideline which specifies the population productivity. The mass exchange of the snail unit inhabited by land snails of Achatina fulica is given as an outcome of step-by-step modeling. All simulations are performed using Solver Add-In of Excel 2007.

Density, distribution, and genetic structure of grizzly bears in the Cabinet-Yaak Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Macleod, Amy C.; Boyd, Kristina L.; Boulanger, John; Royle, J. Andrew; Kasworm, Wayne F.; Paetkau, David; Proctor, Michael F.; Annis, Kim; Graves, Tabitha A.

2016-01-01

The conservation status of the 2 threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) populations in the Cabinet-Yaak Ecosystem (CYE) of northern Montana and Idaho had remained unchanged since designation in 1975; however, the current demographic status of these populations was uncertain. No rigorous data on population density and distribution or analysis of recent population genetic structure were available to measure the effectiveness of conservation efforts. We used genetic detection data from hair corral, bear rub, and opportunistic sampling in traditional and spatial capture–recapture models to generate estimates of abundance and density of grizzly bears in the CYE. We calculated mean bear residency on our sampling grid from telemetry data using Huggins and Pledger models to estimate the average number of bears present and to correct our superpopulation estimates for lack of geographic closure. Estimated grizzly bear abundance (all sex and age classes) in the CYE in 2012 was 48–50 bears, approximately half the population recovery goal. Grizzly bear density in the CYE (4.3–4.5 grizzly bears/1,000 km2) was among the lowest of interior North American populations. The sizes of the Cabinet (n = 22–24) and Yaak (n = 18–22) populations were similar. Spatial models produced similar estimates of abundance and density with comparable precision without requiring radio-telemetry data to address assumptions of geographic closure. The 2 populations in the CYE were demographically and reproductively isolated from each other and the Cabinet population was highly inbred. With parentage analysis, we documented natural migrants to the Cabinet and Yaak populations by bears born to parents in the Selkirk and Northern Continental Divide populations. These events supported data from other sources suggesting that the expansion of neighboring populations may eventually help sustain the CYE populations. However, the small size, isolation, and inbreeding documented by this study demonstrate the need for comprehensive management designed to support CYE population growth and increased connectivity and gene flow with other populations.

Sociality influences cultural complexity.

PubMed

Muthukrishna, Michael; Shulman, Ben W; Vasilescu, Vlad; Henrich, Joseph

2014-01-07

Archaeological and ethnohistorical evidence suggests a link between a population's size and structure, and the diversity or sophistication of its toolkits or technologies. Addressing these patterns, several evolutionary models predict that both the size and social interconnectedness of populations can contribute to the complexity of its cultural repertoire. Some models also predict that a sudden loss of sociality or of population will result in subsequent losses of useful skills/technologies. Here, we test these predictions with two experiments that permit learners to access either one or five models (teachers). Experiment 1 demonstrates that naive participants who could observe five models, integrate this information and generate increasingly effective skills (using an image editing tool) over 10 laboratory generations, whereas those with access to only one model show no improvement. Experiment 2, which began with a generation of trained experts, shows how learners with access to only one model lose skills (in knot-tying) more rapidly than those with access to five models. In the final generation of both experiments, all participants with access to five models demonstrate superior skills to those with access to only one model. These results support theoretical predictions linking sociality to cumulative cultural evolution.

Sociality influences cultural complexity

PubMed Central

Muthukrishna, Michael; Shulman, Ben W.; Vasilescu, Vlad; Henrich, Joseph

2014-01-01

Archaeological and ethnohistorical evidence suggests a link between a population's size and structure, and the diversity or sophistication of its toolkits or technologies. Addressing these patterns, several evolutionary models predict that both the size and social interconnectedness of populations can contribute to the complexity of its cultural repertoire. Some models also predict that a sudden loss of sociality or of population will result in subsequent losses of useful skills/technologies. Here, we test these predictions with two experiments that permit learners to access either one or five models (teachers). Experiment 1 demonstrates that naive participants who could observe five models, integrate this information and generate increasingly effective skills (using an image editing tool) over 10 laboratory generations, whereas those with access to only one model show no improvement. Experiment 2, which began with a generation of trained experts, shows how learners with access to only one model lose skills (in knot-tying) more rapidly than those with access to five models. In the final generation of both experiments, all participants with access to five models demonstrate superior skills to those with access to only one model. These results support theoretical predictions linking sociality to cumulative cultural evolution. PMID:24225461

Evolution of population structure in a highly social top predator, the killer whale.

PubMed

Hoelzel, A Rus; Hey, Jody; Dahlheim, Marilyn E; Nicholson, Colin; Burkanov, Vladimir; Black, Nancy

2007-06-01

Intraspecific resource partitioning and social affiliations both have the potential to structure populations, though it is rarely possible to directly assess the impact of these mechanisms on genetic diversity and population divergence. Here, we address this for killer whales (Orcinus orca), which specialize on prey species and hunting strategy and have long-term social affiliations involving both males and females. We used genetic markers to assess the structure and demographic history of regional populations and test the hypothesis that known foraging specializations and matrifocal sociality contributed significantly to the evolution of population structure. We find genetic structure in sympatry between populations of foraging specialists (ecotypes) and evidence for isolation by distance within an ecotype. Fitting of an isolation with migration model suggested ongoing, low-level migration between regional populations (within and between ecotypes) and small effective sizes for extant local populations. The founding of local populations by matrifocal social groups was indicated by the pattern of fixed mtDNA haplotypes in regional populations. Simulations indicate that this occurred within the last 20,000 years (after the last glacial maximum). Our data indicate a key role for social and foraging behavior in the evolution of genetic structure among conspecific populations of the killer whale.

Microsatellite variation suggests a recent fine-scale population structure of Drosophila sechellia, a species endemic of the Seychelles archipelago.

PubMed

Legrand, Delphine; Vautrin, Dominique; Lachaise, Daniel; Cariou, Marie-Louise

2011-07-01

Drosophila sechellia is closely related to the cosmopolitan and widespread model species, D. simulans. This species, endemic to the Seychelles archipelago, is specialized on the fruits of Morinda citrifolia, and harbours the lowest overall genetic diversity compared to other species of Drosophila. This low diversity is associated with a small population size. In addition, no obvious population structure has been evidenced so far across islands of the Seychelles archipelago. Here, a microsatellite panel of 17 loci in ten populations from nine islands of the Seychelles was used to assess the effect of the D. sechellia's fragmented distribution on the fine-scale population genetic structure, the migration pattern, as well as on the demography of the species. Contrary to previous results, also based on microsatellites, no evidence for population contraction in D. sechellia was found. The results confirm previous studies based on gene sequence polymorphism that showed a long-term stable population size for this species. Interestingly, a pattern of Isolation By Distance which had not been described yet in D. sechellia was found, with evidence of first-generation migrants between some neighbouring islands. Bayesian structuring algorithm results were consistent with a split of D. sechellia into two main groups of populations: Silhouette/Mahé versus all the other islands. Thus, microsatellites suggest that variability in D. sechellia is most likely explained by local genetic exchanges between neighbouring islands that have recently resulted in slight differentiation of the two largest island populations from all the others.

Parallel altitudinal clines reveal trends in adaptive evolution of genome size in Zea mays

PubMed Central

Berg, Jeremy J.; Birchler, James A.; Grote, Mark N.; Lorant, Anne; Quezada, Juvenal

2018-01-01

While the vast majority of genome size variation in plants is due to differences in repetitive sequence, we know little about how selection acts on repeat content in natural populations. Here we investigate parallel changes in intraspecific genome size and repeat content of domesticated maize (Zea mays) landraces and their wild relative teosinte across altitudinal gradients in Mesoamerica and South America. We combine genotyping, low coverage whole-genome sequence data, and flow cytometry to test for evidence of selection on genome size and individual repeat abundance. We find that population structure alone cannot explain the observed variation, implying that clinal patterns of genome size are maintained by natural selection. Our modeling additionally provides evidence of selection on individual heterochromatic knob repeats, likely due to their large individual contribution to genome size. To better understand the phenotypes driving selection on genome size, we conducted a growth chamber experiment using a population of highland teosinte exhibiting extensive variation in genome size. We find weak support for a positive correlation between genome size and cell size, but stronger support for a negative correlation between genome size and the rate of cell production. Reanalyzing published data of cell counts in maize shoot apical meristems, we then identify a negative correlation between cell production rate and flowering time. Together, our data suggest a model in which variation in genome size is driven by natural selection on flowering time across altitudinal clines, connecting intraspecific variation in repetitive sequence to important differences in adaptive phenotypes. PMID:29746459

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data.

PubMed

Jewett, Ethan M; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S

2016-11-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright-Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

The rate-size trade-off structures intraspecific variation in Daphnia ambigua life history parameters.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Hanley, Torrance C

2013-01-01

The identification of trade-offs is necessary for understanding the evolution and maintenance of diversity. Here we employ the supply-demand (SD) body size optimization model to predict a trade-off between asymptotic body size and growth rate. We use the SD model to quantitatively predict the slope of the relationship between asymptotic body size and growth rate under high and low food regimes and then test the predictions against observations for Daphnia ambigua. Close quantitative agreement between observed and predicted slopes at both food levels lends support to the model and confirms that a 'rate-size' trade-off structures life history variation in this population. In contrast to classic life history expectations, growth and reproduction were positively correlated after controlling for the rate-size trade-off. We included 12 Daphnia clones in our study, but clone identity explained only some of the variation in life history traits. We also tested the hypothesis that growth rate would be positively related to intergenic spacer length (i.e. the growth rate hypothesis) across clones, but we found that clones with intermediate intergenic spacer lengths had larger asymptotic sizes and slower growth rates. Our results strongly support a resource-based optimization of body size following the SD model. Furthermore, because some resource allocation decisions necessarily precede others, understanding interdependent life history traits may require a more nested approach.

Constancy and asynchrony of Osmoderma eremita populations in tree hollows.

PubMed

Ranius, Thomas

2001-01-01

A species rich beetle fauna is associated with old, hollow trees. Many of these species are regarded as endangered, but there is little understanding of the population structure and extinction risks of these species. In this study I show that one of the most endangered beetles, Osmoderma eremita, has a population structure which conforms to that of a metapopulation, with each tree possibly sustaining a local population. This was revealed by performing a mark-release-recapture experiment in 26 trees over a 5-year period. The spatial variability between trees was much greater than temporal variability between years. The population size was on average 11 adults tree -1 year -1 , but differed widely between trees (0-85 adults tree -1 year -1 ). The population size in each tree varied moderately between years [mean coefficient of variation (C.V.)=0.51], but more widely than from sampling errors alone (P=0.008, Monte Carlo simulation). The population size variability in all trees combined, however, was not larger than expected from sampling errors alone in a constant population (C.V.=0.15, P=0.335, Monte Carlo simulation). Thus, the fluctuations of local populations cancel each other out when they are added together. This pattern can arise only when the fluctuations occur asynchronously between trees. The asynchrony of the fluctuations justifies the assumption usually made in metapopulation modelling, that local populations within a metapopulation fluctuate independently of one another. The asynchrony might greatly increase persistence time at the metapopulation level (per stand), compared to the local population level (per tree). The total population size of O. eremita in the study area was estimated to be 3,900 individuals. Other localities sustaining O. eremita are smaller in area, and most of these must be enlarged to allow long-term metapopulation persistence and to satisfy genetic considerations of the O. eremita populations.

Energetic and ecological constraints on population density of reef fishes.

PubMed

Barneche, D R; Kulbicki, M; Floeter, S R; Friedlander, A M; Allen, A P

2016-01-27

Population ecology has classically focused on pairwise species interactions, hindering the description of general patterns and processes of population abundance at large spatial scales. Here we use the metabolic theory of ecology as a framework to formulate and test a model that yields predictions linking population density to the physiological constraints of body size and temperature on individual metabolism, and the ecological constraints of trophic structure and species richness on energy partitioning among species. Our model was tested by applying Bayesian quantile regression to a comprehensive reef-fish community database, from which we extracted density data for 5609 populations spread across 49 sites around the world. Our results indicate that population density declines markedly with increases in community species richness and that, after accounting for richness, energetic constraints are manifested most strongly for the most abundant species, which generally are of small body size and occupy lower trophic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that, at the global scale, factors associated with community species richness are the major drivers of variation in population density. Given that populations of species-rich tropical systems exhibit markedly lower maximum densities, they may be particularly susceptible to stochastic extinction. © 2016 The Author(s).

Energetic and ecological constraints on population density of reef fishes

PubMed Central

Barneche, D. R.; Kulbicki, M.; Floeter, S. R.; Friedlander, A. M.; Allen, A. P.

2016-01-01

Population ecology has classically focused on pairwise species interactions, hindering the description of general patterns and processes of population abundance at large spatial scales. Here we use the metabolic theory of ecology as a framework to formulate and test a model that yields predictions linking population density to the physiological constraints of body size and temperature on individual metabolism, and the ecological constraints of trophic structure and species richness on energy partitioning among species. Our model was tested by applying Bayesian quantile regression to a comprehensive reef-fish community database, from which we extracted density data for 5609 populations spread across 49 sites around the world. Our results indicate that population density declines markedly with increases in community species richness and that, after accounting for richness, energetic constraints are manifested most strongly for the most abundant species, which generally are of small body size and occupy lower trophic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that, at the global scale, factors associated with community species richness are the major drivers of variation in population density. Given that populations of species-rich tropical systems exhibit markedly lower maximum densities, they may be particularly susceptible to stochastic extinction. PMID:26791611

Simulation modeling of population viability for the leopard darter (Percidae: Percina pantherina)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, L.R.; Echelle, A.A.; Toepfer, C.S.; Williams, M.G.; Fisher, W.L.

1999-01-01

We used the computer program RAMAS to perform a population viability analysis for the leopard darter, Percina pantherina. This percid fish is a threatened species confined to five isolated rivers in the Ouachita Mountains of Oklahoma and Arkansas. A base model created from life history data indicated a 6% probability that the leopard darter would go extinct in 50 years. We performed sensitivity analyses to determine the effects of initial population size, variation in age structure, variation in severity and probability of catastrophe, and migration rate. Catastrophe (modeled as the probability and severity of drought) and migration had the greatest effects on persistence. Results of these simulations have implications for management of this species.

Size-dependent diffusion promotes the emergence of spatiotemporal patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lai; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Banerjee, Malay

2014-07-01

Spatiotemporal patterns, indicating the spatiotemporal variability of individual abundance, are a pronounced scenario in ecological interactions. Most of the existing models for spatiotemporal patterns treat species as homogeneous groups of individuals with average characteristics by ignoring intraspecific physiological variations at the individual level. Here we explore the impacts of size variation within species resulting from individual ontogeny, on the emergence of spatiotemporal patterns in a fully size-structured population model. We found that size dependency of animal's diffusivity greatly promotes the formation of spatiotemporal patterns, by creating regular spatiotemporal patterns out of temporal chaos. We also found that size-dependent diffusion can substitute large-amplitude base harmonics with spatiotemporal patterns with lower amplitude oscillations but with enriched harmonics. Finally, we found that the single-generation cycle is more likely to drive spatiotemporal patterns compared to predator-prey cycles, meaning that the mechanism of Hopf bifurcation might be more common than hitherto appreciated since the former cycle is more widespread than the latter in case of interacting populations. Due to the ubiquity of individual ontogeny in natural ecosystems we conclude that diffusion variability within populations is a significant driving force for the emergence of spatiotemporal patterns. Our results offer a perspective on self-organized phenomena, and pave a way to understand such phenomena in systems organized as complex ecological networks.

Testing the equivalence of modern human cranial covariance structure: Implications for bioarchaeological applications.

PubMed

von Cramon-Taubadel, Noreen; Schroeder, Lauren

2016-10-01

Estimation of the variance-covariance (V/CV) structure of fragmentary bioarchaeological populations requires the use of proxy extant V/CV parameters. However, it is currently unclear whether extant human populations exhibit equivalent V/CV structures. Random skewers (RS) and hierarchical analyses of common principal components (CPC) were applied to a modern human cranial dataset. Cranial V/CV similarity was assessed globally for samples of individual populations (jackknifed method) and for pairwise population sample contrasts. The results were examined in light of potential explanatory factors for covariance difference, such as geographic region, among-group distance, and sample size. RS analyses showed that population samples exhibited highly correlated multivariate responses to selection, and that differences in RS results were primarily a consequence of differences in sample size. The CPC method yielded mixed results, depending upon the statistical criterion used to evaluate the hierarchy. The hypothesis-testing (step-up) approach was deemed problematic due to sensitivity to low statistical power and elevated Type I errors. In contrast, the model-fitting (lowest AIC) approach suggested that V/CV matrices were proportional and/or shared a large number of CPCs. Pairwise population sample CPC results were correlated with cranial distance, suggesting that population history explains some of the variability in V/CV structure among groups. The results indicate that patterns of covariance in human craniometric samples are broadly similar but not identical. These findings have important implications for choosing extant covariance matrices to use as proxy V/CV parameters in evolutionary analyses of past populations. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations.

PubMed

Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard M; Forchhammer, Mads C; Forbes, Valery E; Topping, Christopher J

2010-01-28

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.

Firefighter Hand Anthropometry and Structural Glove Sizing: A New Perspective.

PubMed

Hsiao, Hongwei; Whitestone, Jennifer; Kau, Tsui-Ying; Hildreth, Brooke

2015-12-01

We evaluated the current use and fit of structural firefighting gloves and developed an improved sizing scheme that better accommodates the U.S. firefighter population. Among surveys, 24% to 30% of men and 31% to 62% of women reported experiencing problems with the fit or bulkiness of their structural firefighting gloves. An age-, race/ethnicity-, and gender-stratified sample of 863 male and 88 female firefighters across the United States participated in the study. Fourteen hand dimensions relevant to glove design were measured. A cluster analysis of the hand dimensions was performed to explore options for an improved sizing scheme. The current national standard structural firefighting glove-sizing scheme underrepresents firefighter hand size range and shape variation. In addition, mismatch between existing sizing specifications and hand characteristics, such as hand dimensions, user selection of glove size, and the existing glove sizing specifications, is significant. An improved glove-sizing plan based on clusters of overall hand size and hand/finger breadth-to-length contrast has been developed. This study presents the most up-to-date firefighter hand anthropometry and a new perspective on glove accommodation. The new seven-size system contains narrower variations (standard deviations) for almost all dimensions for each glove size than the current sizing practices. The proposed science-based sizing plan for structural firefighting gloves provides a step-forward perspective (i.e., including two women hand model-based sizes and two wide-palm sizes for men) for glove manufacturers to advance firefighter hand protection. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Empty Niches after Extinctions Increase Population Sizes of Modern Corals.

PubMed

Prada, Carlos; Hanna, Bishoy; Budd, Ann F; Woodley, Cheryl M; Schmutz, Jeremy; Grimwood, Jane; Iglesias-Prieto, Roberto; Pandolfi, John M; Levitan, Don; Johnson, Kenneth G; Knowlton, Nancy; Kitano, Hiroaki; DeGiorgio, Michael; Medina, Mónica

2016-12-05

Large environmental fluctuations often cause mass extinctions, extirpating species and transforming communities [1, 2]. While the effects on community structure are evident in the fossil record, demographic consequences for populations of individual species are harder to evaluate because fossils reveal relative, but not absolute, abundances. However, genomic analyses of living species that have survived a mass extinction event offer the potential for understanding the demographic effects of such environmental fluctuations on extant species. Here, we show how environmental variation since the Pliocene has shaped demographic changes in extant corals of the genus Orbicella, major extant reef builders in the Caribbean that today are endangered. We use genomic approaches to estimate previously unknown current and past population sizes over the last 3 million years. Populations of all three Orbicella declined around 2-1 million years ago, coincident with the extinction of at least 50% of Caribbean coral species. The estimated changes in population size are consistent across the three species despite their ecological differences. Subsequently, two shallow-water specialists expanded their population sizes at least 2-fold, over a time that overlaps with the disappearance of their sister competitor species O. nancyi (the organ-pipe Orbicella). Our study suggests that populations of Orbicella species are capable of rebounding from reductions in population size under suitable conditions and that the effective population size of modern corals provides rich standing genetic variation for corals to adapt to climate change. For conservation genetics, our study suggests the need to evaluate genetic variation under appropriate demographic models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Double Trouble at High Density: Cross-Level Test of Resource-Related Adaptive Plasticity and Crowding-Related Fitness

PubMed Central

Gergs, André; Preuss, Thomas G.; Palmqvist, Annemette

2014-01-01

Population size is often regulated by negative feedback between population density and individual fitness. At high population densities, animals run into double trouble: they might concurrently suffer from overexploitation of resources and also from negative interference among individuals regardless of resource availability, referred to as crowding. Animals are able to adapt to resource shortages by exhibiting a repertoire of life history and physiological plasticities. In addition to resource-related plasticity, crowding might lead to reduced fitness, with consequences for individual life history. We explored how different mechanisms behind resource-related plasticity and crowding-related fitness act independently or together, using the water flea Daphnia magna as a case study. For testing hypotheses related to mechanisms of plasticity and crowding stress across different biological levels, we used an individual-based population model that is based on dynamic energy budget theory. Each of the hypotheses, represented by a sub-model, is based on specific assumptions on how the uptake and allocation of energy are altered under conditions of resource shortage or crowding. For cross-level testing of different hypotheses, we explored how well the sub-models fit individual level data and also how well they predict population dynamics under different conditions of resource availability. Only operating resource-related and crowding-related hypotheses together enabled accurate model predictions of D. magna population dynamics and size structure. Whereas this study showed that various mechanisms might play a role in the negative feedback between population density and individual life history, it also indicated that different density levels might instigate the onset of the different mechanisms. This study provides an example of how the integration of dynamic energy budget theory and individual-based modelling can facilitate the exploration of mechanisms behind the regulation of population size. Such understanding is important for assessment, management and the conservation of populations and thereby biodiversity in ecosystems. PMID:24626228

Managing the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaque population: The role of density.

PubMed

Hernandez-Pacheco, Raisa; Delgado, Diana L; Rawlins, Richard G; Kessler, Matthew J; Ruiz-Lambides, Angelina V; Maldonado, Elizabeth; Sabat, Alberto M

2016-01-01

Cayo Santiago is the oldest continuously operating free-ranging rhesus monkey colony in the world. Population control of this colony has historically been carried out by periodic live capture and removal of animals. However, the effect of such a strategy on the size, growth rate, age structure, and sex ratio of the population has not been analyzed. This study reviews past removal data and uses a population projection model to simulate the effects of different removal schemes based on Cayo Santiago demographic data from 2000-2012. The model incorporates negative density-dependence in female fertility, as well as male and female survival rates, to determine the population-level effects of selective removal by age and sex. Modeling revealed that removal of sexually immature individuals has negligible effects on the population dynamics explaining why with an initial population of 1309 in 2000 and annual removals of immature monkeys a mean annual population growth rate of 12% and a final population size of ∼1,435 individuals by 2012 (∼0.009 animal/m(2) ) was observed. With no removals, the population is expected to exhibit dampened oscillations until reaching equilibrium at ∼1,690 individuals (∼0.0111 animal/m(2) ) in 2,100. In contrast, removal of adult females (≥4 yrs) would significantly reduce the population size, but would also promote an increase in population growth rate due to density feedback. A maximum annual production of 275 births is expected when 550 adult females are present in the population. Sensitivity analyses showed that removing females, in contrast to controlling their fertility through invasive treatments would contribute the most to changes in population growth rate. Given the density compensation on fertility, stabilizing the population would require removing ∼80% of the current population of adult females. This study highlights the importance of addressing the population-level density effects, as well as sensitivity analyses, to optimize management strategies. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dispersal, niche breadth and population extinction: colonization ratios predict range size in North American dragonflies.

PubMed

McCauley, Shannon J; Davis, Christopher J; Werner, Earl E; Robeson, Michael S

2014-07-01

Species' range sizes are shaped by fundamental differences in species' ecological and evolutionary characteristics, and understanding the mechanisms determining range size can shed light on the factors responsible for generating and structuring biological diversity. Moreover, because geographic range size is associated with a species' risk of extinction and their ability to respond to global changes in climate and land use, understanding these mechanisms has important conservation implications. Despite the hypotheses that dispersal behaviour is a strong determinant of species range areas, few data are available to directly compare the relationship between dispersal behaviour and range size. Here, we overcome this limitation by combining data from a multispecies dispersal experiment with additional species-level trait data that are commonly hypothesized to affect range size (e.g. niche breadth, local abundance and body size.). This enables us to examine the relationship between these species-level traits and range size across North America for fifteen dragonfly species. Ten models based on a priori predictions about the relationship between species traits and range size were evaluated and two models were identified as good predictors of species range size. These models indicated that only two species' level traits, dispersal behaviour and niche breadth were strongly related to range size. The evidence from these two models indicated that dragonfly species that disperse more often and further had larger North American ranges. Extinction and colonization dynamics are expected to be a key linkage between dispersal behaviour and range size in dragonflies. To evaluate how extinction and colonization dynamics among dragonflies were related to range size we used an independent data set of extinction and colonization rates for eleven dragonfly species and assessed the relationship between these populations rates and North American range areas for these species. We found a negative relationship between North American range size and species' extinction-to-colonization ratios. Our results indicate that metapopulation dynamics act to shape the extent of species' continental distributions. These population dynamics are likely to interact with dispersal behaviour, particularly at species range margins, to determine range limits and ultimately species range sizes. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Games among relatives revisited.

PubMed

Allen, Benjamin; Nowak, Martin A

2015-08-07

We present a simple model for the evolution of social behavior in family-structured, finite sized populations. Interactions are represented as evolutionary games describing frequency-dependent selection. Individuals interact more frequently with siblings than with members of the general population, as quantified by an assortment parameter r, which can be interpreted as "relatedness". Other models, mostly of spatially structured populations, have shown that assortment can promote the evolution of cooperation by facilitating interaction between cooperators, but this effect depends on the details of the evolutionary process. For our model, we find that sibling assortment promotes cooperation in stringent social dilemmas such as the Prisoner's Dilemma, but not necessarily in other situations. These results are obtained through straightforward calculations of changes in gene frequency. We also analyze our model using inclusive fitness. We find that the quantity of inclusive fitness does not exist for general games. For special games, where inclusive fitness exists, it provides less information than the straightforward analysis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the consequences of the demise and potential recovery of a keystone-species: wild rabbits and avian scavengers in Mediterranean landscapes

PubMed Central

Cortés-Avizanda, Ainara; Colomer, Maria Àngels; Margalida, Antoni; Ceballos, Olga; Donázar, José Antonio

2015-01-01

Restoration of demised keystone-species populations is an overriding concern in conservation biology. However, since no population is independent of its environment, progress is needed in predicting the efficacy of restoration in unstable ecological contexts. Here, by means of Population Dynamics P-system Models (PDP), we studied long-term changes in the population size of Egyptian vultures (Neophron percnopterus) inhabiting a Natural Park, northern Spain, to changes in the numbers of wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), a keystone-species of Mediterranean ecosystems that have suffered >90% population decline after a hemorrhagic disease outbreak. Low availability of rabbit carcasses leads Egyptian vultures to extend their foraging activities to unprotected areas with higher non-natural mortality whereas growing numbers of griffon vultures (Gyps fulvus), a dominant competitor, progressively monopolize trophic resources resulting in a focal population decrease. Modeling shows that, even if keystone-species populations recover in core protected areas, the return to the original studied population size may be unfeasible, due to both the high non-natural mortality rates in humanized areas and long-term changes in the scavenger guild structure. Policy decisions aimed to restore keystone-species should rely on holistic approaches integrating the effects of spatial heterogeneity on both producer and consumer populations as well as within-guild processes. PMID:26593338

A fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model for population viability analysis of fish: Lower Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Albers, Janice; Green, Nicholas; Moran, Edward H.

2017-01-01

We develop a fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model suitable for population viability analysis (PVA) of fish and demonstrate its use with the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) of the Lower Missouri River as an example. The model incorporates three levels of variance: parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level, temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations over time) applied at the time-step level, and implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) applied within the time-step level. We found that population dynamics were most sensitive to survival rates, particularly age-2+ survival, and to fecundity-at-length. The inclusion of variance (unpartitioned or partitioned), stocking, or both generally decreased the influence of individual parameters on population growth rate. The partitioning of variance into parameter and temporal components had a strong influence on the importance of individual parameters, uncertainty of model predictions, and quasiextinction risk (i.e., pallid sturgeon population size falling below 50 age-1+ individuals). Our findings show that appropriately applying variance in PVA is important when evaluating the relative importance of parameters, and reinforce the need for better and more precise estimates of crucial life-history parameters for pallid sturgeon.

On the Origin of Banded Structure in Dusty Protoplanetary Discs: HL Tau and TW Hya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boley, Aaron C.

2017-10-01

We present simulations of planet-planetesimal interactions that can reproduce major and minor banded structure in the HL Tau and TW Hya discs provided that small grains trace the dynamically cold planetesimal population. The consequences of the model and its limitations will be discussed. In particular, the model requires that planetesimals form throughout the disc at early times, that planetesimal-planetesimal collisions are predominately among the cold population, and that pebble accretion leads to mass redistribution of the small grains onto planetesimals before the grains can undergo significant radial drift. The meteortic record may suggest that a similar process occurred in the Solar System. The model implies that grain size distributions inferred from submm/mm studies may reflect early debris processes rather than grain growth.

Population Size Predicts Lexical Diversity, but so Does the Mean Sea Level --Why It Is Important to Correctly Account for the Structure of Temporal Data.

PubMed

Koplenig, Alexander; Müller-Spitzer, Carolin

2016-01-01

In order to demonstrate why it is important to correctly account for the (serial dependent) structure of temporal data, we document an apparently spectacular relationship between population size and lexical diversity: for five out of seven investigated languages, there is a strong relationship between population size and lexical diversity of the primary language in this country. We show that this relationship is the result of a misspecified model that does not consider the temporal aspect of the data by presenting a similar but nonsensical relationship between the global annual mean sea level and lexical diversity. Given the fact that in the recent past, several studies were published that present surprising links between different economic, cultural, political and (socio-)demographical variables on the one hand and cultural or linguistic characteristics on the other hand, but seem to suffer from exactly this problem, we explain the cause of the misspecification and show that it has profound consequences. We demonstrate how simple transformation of the time series can often solve problems of this type and argue that the evaluation of the plausibility of a relationship is important in this context. We hope that our paper will help both researchers and reviewers to understand why it is important to use special models for the analysis of data with a natural temporal ordering.

Wild cricket social networks show stability across generations.

PubMed

Fisher, David N; Rodríguez-Muñoz, Rolando; Tregenza, Tom

2016-07-27

A central part of an animal's environment is its interactions with conspecifics. There has been growing interest in the potential to capture these interactions in the form of a social network. Such networks can then be used to examine how relationships among individuals affect ecological and evolutionary processes. However, in the context of selection and evolution, the utility of this approach relies on social network structures persisting across generations. This is an assumption that has been difficult to test because networks spanning multiple generations have not been available. We constructed social networks for six annual generations over a period of eight years for a wild population of the cricket Gryllus campestris. Through the use of exponential random graph models (ERGMs), we found that the networks in any given year were able to predict the structure of networks in other years for some network characteristics. The capacity of a network model of any given year to predict the networks of other years did not depend on how far apart those other years were in time. Instead, the capacity of a network model to predict the structure of a network in another year depended on the similarity in population size between those years. Our results indicate that cricket social network structure resists the turnover of individuals and is stable across generations. This would allow evolutionary processes that rely on network structure to take place. The influence of network size may indicate that scaling up findings on social behaviour from small populations to larger ones will be difficult. Our study also illustrates the utility of ERGMs for comparing networks, a task for which an effective approach has been elusive.

Ecological correlates of population genetic structure: a comparative approach using a vertebrate metacommunity.

PubMed

Manier, Mollie K; Arnold, Stevan J

2006-12-07

Identifying ecological factors associated with population genetic differentiation is important for understanding microevolutionary processes and guiding the management of threatened populations. We identified ecological correlates of several population genetic parameters for three interacting species (two garter snakes and an anuran) that occupy a common landscape. Using multiple regression analysis, we found that species interactions were more important in explaining variation in population genetic parameters than habitat and nearest-neighbour characteristics. Effective population size was best explained by census size, while migration was associated with differences in species abundance. In contrast, genetic distance was poorly explained by the ecological correlates that we tested, but geographical distance was prominent in models for all species. We found substantially different population dynamics for the prey species relative to the two predators, characterized by larger effective sizes, lower gene flow and a state of migration-drift equilibrium. We also identified an escarpment formed by a series of block faults that serves as a barrier to dispersal for the predators. Our results suggest that successful landscape-level management should incorporate genetic and ecological data for all relevant species, because even closely associated species can exhibit very different population genetic dynamics on the same landscape.

Seasonal reproduction leads to population collapse and an Allee effect in a stage-structured consumer-resource biomass model when mortality rate increases

PubMed Central

de Roos, André M.

2017-01-01

Many populations collapse suddenly when reaching low densities even if they have abundant food conditions, a phenomenon known as an Allee effect. Such collapses can have disastrous consequences, for example, for loss of biodiversity. In this paper, we formulate a stage-structured consumer-resource biomass model in which adults only reproduce at the beginning of each growing season, and investigate the effect of an increasing stage-independent background mortality rate of the consumer. As the main difference with previously studied continuous-time models, seasonal reproduction can result in an Allee effect and consumer population collapses at high consumer mortality rate. However, unlike the mechanisms reported in the literature, in our model the Allee effect results from the time difference between the maturation of juveniles and the reproduction of adults. The timing of maturation plays a crucial role because it not only determines the body size of the individuals at maturation but also influences the duration of the period during which adults can invest in reproductive energy, which together determine the reproductive output at the end of the season. We suggest that there exists an optimal timing of maturation and that consumer persistence is promoted if individuals mature later in the season at a larger body size, rather than maturing early, despite high food availability supporting rapid growth. PMID:29088273

A Demographic Deficit? Local Population Aging and Access to Services in Rural America, 1990–2010

PubMed Central

Thiede, Brian; Brown, David L.; Sanders, Scott R.; Glasgow, Nina; Kulcsar, Laszlo J.

2017-01-01

Population aging is being experienced by many rural communities in the U.S., as evidenced by increases in the median age and the high incidence of natural population decrease. The implications of these changes in population structure for the daily lives of the residents in such communities have received little attention. We address this issue in the current study by examining the relationship between population aging and the availability of service-providing establishments in the rural U.S. between 1990 and 2010. Using data mainly from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we estimate a series of fixed-effects regression models to identify the relationship between median age and establishment counts net of changes in overall population and other factors. We find a significant, but non-linear relationship between county median age and the total number of service-providing establishments, and counts of most specific types of services. We find a positive effect of total population size across all of our models. This total population effect is consistent with other research, but the independent effects of age structure that we observe represent a novel finding and suggest that age structure is a salient factor in local rural development and community wellbeing. PMID:28757660

Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Lai, Keke; Kelley, Ken

2011-06-01

In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Population estimates of extended family structure and size.

PubMed

Garceau, Anne; Wideroff, Louise; McNeel, Timothy; Dunn, Marsha; Graubard, Barry I

2008-01-01

Population-based estimates of biological family size can be useful for planning genetic studies, assessing how distributions of relatives affect disease associations with family history and estimating prevalence of potential family support. Mean family size per person is estimated from a population-based telephone survey (n = 1,019). After multivariate adjustment for demographic variables, older and non-White respondents reported greater mean numbers of total, first- and second-degree relatives. Females reported more total and first-degree relatives, while less educated respondents reported more second-degree relatives. Demographic differences in family size have implications for genetic research. Therefore, periodic collection of family structure data in representative populations would be useful. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A longitudinal genetic survey identifies temporal shifts in the population structure of Dutch house sparrows

PubMed Central

Cousseau, L; Husemann, M; Foppen, R; Vangestel, C; Lens, L

2016-01-01

Dutch house sparrow (Passer domesticus) densities dropped by nearly 50% since the early 1980s, and similar collapses in population sizes have been reported across Europe. Whether, and to what extent, such relatively recent demographic changes are accompanied by concomitant shifts in the genetic population structure of this species needs further investigation. Therefore, we here explore temporal shifts in genetic diversity, genetic structure and effective sizes of seven Dutch house sparrow populations. To allow the most powerful statistical inference, historical populations were resampled at identical locations and each individual bird was genotyped using nine polymorphic microsatellites. Although the demographic history was not reflected by a reduction in genetic diversity, levels of genetic differentiation increased over time, and the original, panmictic population (inferred from the museum samples) diverged into two distinct genetic clusters. Reductions in census size were supported by a substantial reduction in effective population size, although to a smaller extent. As most studies of contemporary house sparrow populations have been unable to identify genetic signatures of recent population declines, results of this study underpin the importance of longitudinal genetic surveys to unravel cryptic genetic patterns. PMID:27273323

Data-Limited Population-Status Evaluation of Two Coastal Fishes in Southern Angola Using Recreational Catch Length-Frequency Data.

PubMed

Beckensteiner, Jennifer; Kaplan, David M; Potts, Warren M; Santos, Carmen V; O'Farrell, Michael R

2016-01-01

Excessive truncation of a population's size structure is often identified as an important deleterious effect of exploitation, yet the effect on population persistence of size-structure truncation caused by exploitation is often not quantified due to data limitations. In this study, we estimate changes in eggs per recruit (EPR) using annual length-frequency samples over a 9 year period to assess persistence of the two most important recreational fishes in southern Angola: west coast dusky kob (Argyrosomus coronus) and leerfish (Lichia amia). Using a length- and age-structured model, we improve on an existing method to fit this type of model to length-frequency data and estimate EPR. The objectives of the methodological changes are to add flexibility and robustness to the approach for assessing population status in data-limited situations. Results indicate that dusky kob presents very low levels of EPR (5%-10% of the per recruit reproductive capacity in the absence of fishing) in 2013, whereas large inter-annual variability in leerfish estimates suggest caution must be applied when drawing conclusions about its exploitation status. Using simulated length frequency data with known parameter values, we demonstrate that recruitment decline due to overexploitation leads to overestimation of EPR values. Considering the low levels of EPR estimated for the study species, recruitment limitation is not impossible and true EPR values may be even lower than our estimates. It is, therefore, likely that management action, such as the creation of Marine Protected Areas, is needed to reconstitute the west coast dusky kob population.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nose, Y.

Methods were developed for generating an integrated, statistical model of the anatomical structures within the human thorax relevant to radioisotope powered artificial heart implantation. These methods involve measurement and analysis of anatomy in four areas: chest wall, pericardium, vascular connections, and great vessels. A model for the prediction of thorax outline from radiograms was finalized. These models were combined with 100 radiograms to arrive at a size distribution representing the adult male and female populations. (CH)

Nonidentifiability of population size from capture-recapture data with heterogeneous detection probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.

2003-01-01

Heterogeneity in detection probabilities has long been recognized as problematic in mark-recapture studies, and numerous models developed to accommodate its effects. Individual heterogeneity is especially problematic, in that reasonable alternative models may predict essentially identical observations from populations of substantially different sizes. Thus even with very large samples, the analyst will not be able to distinguish among reasonable models of heterogeneity, even though these yield quite distinct inferences about population size. The problem is illustrated with models for closed and open populations.

Trapped within the city: integrating demography, time since isolation and population-specific traits to assess the genetic effects of urbanization.

PubMed

Lourenço, André; Álvarez, David; Wang, Ian J; Velo-Antón, Guillermo

2017-03-01

Urbanization is a severe form of habitat fragmentation that can cause many species to be locally extirpated and many others to become trapped and isolated within an urban matrix. The role of drift in reducing genetic diversity and increasing genetic differentiation is well recognized in urban populations. However, explicit incorporation and analysis of the demographic and temporal factors promoting drift in urban environments are poorly studied. Here, we genotyped 15 microsatellites in 320 fire salamanders from the historical city of Oviedo (Est. 8th century) to assess the effects of time since isolation, demographic history (historical effective population size; N e ) and patch size on genetic diversity, population structure and contemporary N e . Our results indicate that urban populations of fire salamanders are highly differentiated, most likely due to the recent N e declines, as calculated in coalescence analyses, concomitant with the urban development of Oviedo. However, urbanization only caused a small loss of genetic diversity. Regression modelling showed that patch size was positively associated with contemporary N e , while we found only moderate support for the effects of demographic history when excluding populations with unresolved history. This highlights the interplay between different factors in determining current genetic diversity and structure. Overall, the results of our study on urban populations of fire salamanders provide some of the very first insights into the mechanisms affecting changes in genetic diversity and population differentiation via drift in urban environments, a crucial subject in a world where increasing urbanization is forecasted. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using a Marginal Structural Model to Design a Theory-Based Mass Media Campaign.

PubMed

Nishiuchi, Hiromu; Taguri, Masataka; Ishikawa, Yoshiki

2016-01-01

The essential first step in the development of mass media health campaigns is to identify specific beliefs of the target audience. The challenge is to prioritize suitable beliefs derived from behavioral theory. The purpose of this study was to identify suitable beliefs to target in a mass media campaign to change behavior using a new method to estimate the possible effect size of a small set of beliefs. Data were drawn from the 2010 Japanese Young Female Smoker Survey (n = 500), conducted by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. Survey measures included intention to quit smoking, psychological beliefs (attitude, norms, and perceived control) based on the theory of planned behavior and socioeconomic status (age, education, household income, and marital status). To identify suitable candidate beliefs for a mass media health campaign, we estimated the possible effect size required to change the intention to quit smoking among the population of young Japanese women using the population attributable fraction from a marginal structural model. Thirteen percent of study participants intended to quit smoking. The marginal structural model estimated a population attributable fraction of 47 psychological beliefs (21 attitudes, 6 norms, and 19 perceived controls) after controlling for socioeconomic status. The belief, "I could quit smoking if my husband or significant other recommended it" suggested a promising target for a mass media campaign (population attributable fraction = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.02-0.23). Messages targeting this belief could possibly improve intention rates by up to 12% among this population. The analysis also suggested the potential for regulatory action. This study proposed a method by which campaign planners can develop theory-based mass communication strategies to change health behaviors at the population level. This method might contribute to improving the quality of future mass health communication strategies and further research is needed.

Using a Marginal Structural Model to Design a Theory-Based Mass Media Campaign

PubMed Central

Taguri, Masataka; Ishikawa, Yoshiki

2016-01-01

Background The essential first step in the development of mass media health campaigns is to identify specific beliefs of the target audience. The challenge is to prioritize suitable beliefs derived from behavioral theory. The purpose of this study was to identify suitable beliefs to target in a mass media campaign to change behavior using a new method to estimate the possible effect size of a small set of beliefs. Methods Data were drawn from the 2010 Japanese Young Female Smoker Survey (n = 500), conducted by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. Survey measures included intention to quit smoking, psychological beliefs (attitude, norms, and perceived control) based on the theory of planned behavior and socioeconomic status (age, education, household income, and marital status). To identify suitable candidate beliefs for a mass media health campaign, we estimated the possible effect size required to change the intention to quit smoking among the population of young Japanese women using the population attributable fraction from a marginal structural model. Results Thirteen percent of study participants intended to quit smoking. The marginal structural model estimated a population attributable fraction of 47 psychological beliefs (21 attitudes, 6 norms, and 19 perceived controls) after controlling for socioeconomic status. The belief, “I could quit smoking if my husband or significant other recommended it” suggested a promising target for a mass media campaign (population attributable fraction = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.02–0.23). Messages targeting this belief could possibly improve intention rates by up to 12% among this population. The analysis also suggested the potential for regulatory action. Conclusions This study proposed a method by which campaign planners can develop theory-based mass communication strategies to change health behaviors at the population level. This method might contribute to improving the quality of future mass health communication strategies and further research is needed. PMID:27441626

Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish.

PubMed

Sakaris, Peter C; Irwin, Elise R

2010-03-01

We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotic fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes.

The effect of seasonal harvesting on stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Tang, Sanyi; Chen, Lansun

2004-04-01

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose an exploited single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a fish population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Since birth pulse populations are often characterized with a discrete time dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under seasonal dependence and obtain threshold conditions for their stability, and show that the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the persistence of the fish population, on the volume of mature fish stock and on the maximum annual-sustainable yield. Moreover, our results imply that the population can sustain much higher harvest rates if the mature fish is removed as early in the season (after the birth pulse) as possible. Further, the effects of harvesting effort and harvest timing on the dynamical complexity are also investigated. Bifurcation diagrams are constructed with the birth rate (or harvesting effort or harvest timing) as the bifurcation parameter, and these are observed to display rich structure, including chaotic bands with periodic windows, pitch-fork and tangent bifurcations, non-unique dynamics (meaning that several attractors coexist) and attractor crisis. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that makes the dynamical behavior more complex.

Weakly Deleterious Mutations and Low Rates of Recombination Limit the Impact of Natural Selection on Bacterial Genomes

PubMed Central

Arkin, Adam P.

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Free-living bacteria are usually thought to have large effective population sizes, and so tiny selective differences can drive their evolution. However, because recombination is infrequent, “background selection” against slightly deleterious alleles should reduce the effective population size (Ne) by orders of magnitude. For example, for a well-mixed population with 1012 individuals and a typical level of homologous recombination (r/m = 3, i.e., nucleotide changes due to recombination [r] occur at 3 times the mutation rate [m]), we predict that Ne is <107. An argument for high Ne values for bacteria has been the high genetic diversity within many bacterial “species,” but this diversity may be due to population structure: diversity across subpopulations can be far higher than diversity within a subpopulation, which makes it difficult to estimate Ne correctly. Given an estimate of Ne, standard population genetics models imply that selection should be sufficient to drive evolution if Ne × s is >1, where s is the selection coefficient. We found that this remains approximately correct if background selection is occurring or when population structure is present. Overall, we predict that even for free-living bacteria with enormous populations, natural selection is only a significant force if s is above 10−7 or so. PMID:26670382

Models to compare management options for a protogynous fish.

PubMed

Heppell, Selina S; Heppell, Scott A; Coleman, Felicia C; Koenig, Christopher C

2006-02-01

Populations of gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a hermaphroditic grouper, have experienced a dramatic shift in sex ratio over the past 25 years due to a decline in older age classes. The highly female-skewed sex ratio can be predicted as a consequence of increased fishing mortality that truncates the age distribution, and raises some concern about the overall fitness of the population. Management efforts may need to be directed toward maintenance of sex ratio as well as stock size, with evaluations of recruitment based on sex ratio or male stock size in addition to the traditional female-based stock-recruitment relationship. We used two stochastic, age-structured models to heuristically compare the effects of reducing fishing mortality on different life history stages and the relative impact of reductions in fertilization rates that may occur with highly skewed sex ratios. Our response variables included population size, sex ratio, lost egg fertility, and female spawning stock biomass. Population growth rates were highest for scenarios that reduced mortality for female gag (nearshore closure), while improved sex ratios were obtained most quickly with spawning reserves. The effect of reduced fertility through sex ratio bias was generally low but depended on the management scenario employed. Our results demonstrate the utility of evaluation of fishery management scenarios through model analysis and simulation, the synergistic interaction of life history and response to changes in mortality rates, and the importance of defining management goals.

Genetic conservation in applied tree breeding programs.

Treesearch

R. Johnson; B. St. Clair; S. Lipow

2001-01-01

This paper reviews how population size and structure impacts the maintenance of genetic variation in breeding and gene resource populations. We discuss appropriate population sizes for low frequency alleles and point out some examples of low frequency alleles in the literature. Development of appropriate breeding populations and gene resource populations are discussed...

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

PubMed

Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-10-01

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

Utility of R0 as a predictor of disease invasion in structured populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, P.C.; Johnson, P.L.F.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Getz, W.M.

2007-01-01

Early theoretical work on disease invasion typically assumed large and well-mixed host populations. Many human and wildlife systems, however, have small groups with limited movement among groups. In these situations, the basic reproductive number, R0, is likely to be a poor predictor of a disease pandemic because it typically does not account for group structure and movement of individuals among groups. We extend recent work by combining the movement of hosts, transmission within groups, recovery from infection and the recruitment of new susceptibles into a stochastic model of disease in a host metapopulation. We focus on how recruitment of susceptibles affects disease invasion and how population structure can affect the frequency of superspreading events (SSEs). We show that the frequency of SSEs may decrease with the reduced movement and the group sizes due to the limited number of susceptible individuals available. Classification tree analysis of the model results illustrates the hierarchical nature of disease invasion in host metapopulations. First, the pathogen must effectively transmit within a group (R0 > 1), and then the pathogen must persist within a group long enough to allow for movement among the groups. Therefore, the factors affecting disease persistence - such as infectious period, group size and recruitment of new susceptibles - are as important as the local transmission rates in predicting the spread of pathogens across a metapopulation. ?? 2006 The Royal Society.

Utility of R0 as a predictor of disease invasion in structured populations.

PubMed

Cross, Paul C; Johnson, Philip L F; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Getz, Wayne M

2007-04-22

Early theoretical work on disease invasion typically assumed large and well-mixed host populations. Many human and wildlife systems, however, have small groups with limited movement among groups. In these situations, the basic reproductive number, R0, is likely to be a poor predictor of a disease pandemic because it typically does not account for group structure and movement of individuals among groups. We extend recent work by combining the movement of hosts, transmission within groups, recovery from infection and the recruitment of new susceptibles into a stochastic model of disease in a host metapopulation. We focus on how recruitment of susceptibles affects disease invasion and how population structure can affect the frequency of superspreading events (SSEs). We show that the frequency of SSEs may decrease with the reduced movement and the group sizes due to the limited number of susceptible individuals available. Classification tree analysis of the model results illustrates the hierarchical nature of disease invasion in host metapopulations. First, the pathogen must effectively transmit within a group (R0>1), and then the pathogen must persist within a group long enough to allow for movement among the groups. Therefore, the factors affecting disease persistence--such as infectious period, group size and recruitment of new susceptibles--are as important as the local transmission rates in predicting the spread of pathogens across a metapopulation.

Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates.

PubMed

Ruiz-Navarro, Ana; Gillingham, Phillipa K; Britton, J Robert

2016-09-01

Predictions of species responses to climate change often focus on distribution shifts, although responses can also include shifts in body sizes and population demographics. Here, shifts in the distributional ranges ('climate space'), body sizes (as maximum theoretical body sizes, L∞) and growth rates (as rate at which L∞ is reached, K) were predicted for five fishes of the Cyprinidae family in a temperate region over eight climate change projections. Great Britain was the model area, and the model species were Rutilus rutilus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Squalius cephalus, Gobio gobio and Abramis brama. Ensemble models predicted that the species' climate spaces would shift in all modelled projections, with the most drastic changes occurring under high emissions; all range centroids shifted in a north-westerly direction. Predicted climate space expanded for R. rutilus and A. brama, contracted for S. cephalus, and for L. leuciscus and G. gobio, expanded under low-emission scenarios but contracted under high emissions, suggesting the presence of some climate-distribution thresholds. For R. rutilus, A. brama, S. cephalus and G. gobio, shifts in their climate space were coupled with predicted shifts to significantly smaller maximum body sizes and/or faster growth rates, aligning strongly to aspects of temperature-body size theory. These predicted shifts in L∞ and K had considerable consequences for size-at-age per species, suggesting substantial alterations in population age structures and abundances. Thus, when predicting climate change outcomes for species, outputs that couple shifts in climate space with altered body sizes and growth rates provide considerable insights into the population and community consequences, especially for species that cannot easily track their thermal niches. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.

1979-01-01

The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

Social network analysis of the genetic structure of Pacific islanders.

PubMed

Terrell, John Edward

2010-05-01

Social network analysis (SNA) is a body of theory and a set of relatively new computer-aided techniques used in the analysis and study of relational data. Recent studies of autosomal markers from over 40 human populations in the south-western Pacific have further documented the remarkable degree of genetic diversity in this part of the world. I report additional analysis using SNA methods contributing new controlled observations on the structuring of genetic diversity among these islanders. These SNA mappings are then compared with model-based network expectations derived from the geographic distances among the same populations. Previous studies found that genetic divergence among island Melanesian populations is organised by island, island size/topography, and position (coastal vs. inland), and that similarities observed correlate only weakly with an isolation-by-distance model. Using SNA methods, however, improves the resolution of among population comparison, and suggests that isolation by distance constrained by social networks together with position (coastal/inland) accounts for much of the population structuring observed. The multilocus data now available is also in accord with current thinking on the impact of major biogeographical transformations on prehistoric colonisation and post-settlement human interaction in Oceania.

Numerical equilibrium analysis for structured consumer resource models.

PubMed

de Roos, A M; Diekmann, O; Getto, P; Kirkilionis, M A

2010-02-01

In this paper, we present methods for a numerical equilibrium and stability analysis for models of a size structured population competing for an unstructured resource. We concentrate on cases where two model parameters are free, and thus existence boundaries for equilibria and stability boundaries can be defined in the (two-parameter) plane. We numerically trace these implicitly defined curves using alternatingly tangent prediction and Newton correction. Evaluation of the maps defining the curves involves integration over individual size and individual survival probability (and their derivatives) as functions of individual age. Such ingredients are often defined as solutions of ODE, i.e., in general only implicitly. In our case, the right-hand sides of these ODE feature discontinuities that are caused by an abrupt change of behavior at the size where juveniles are assumed to turn adult. So, we combine the numerical solution of these ODE with curve tracing methods. We have implemented the algorithms for "Daphnia consuming algae" models in C-code. The results obtained by way of this implementation are shown in the form of graphs.

State Size and Government Level Matter Most: A Structural Equation Model of Local Health Department Policy Behaviors.

PubMed

Meyerson, Beth E; Sayegh, M Aaron

2016-01-01

To explore relationships between local health department policy behaviors, levels of government activity, policy focus areas, and selected health department characteristics. Cross-sectional analysis of secondary data from the 2013 National Association of County & City Health Officials (NACCHO) Profile Survey. Local health departments throughout the United States. A total of 2000 local health departments responding to the 2013 Profile Survey of Local Health Departments. Survey data were gathered by the NACCHO. Secondary analysis of reported policy behaviors for the 2013 NACCHO Profile Survey. A structural equation model tested effects on and between state population size, rurality, census region and policy focus, and the latent variables of policy behavior formed from a confirmatory factor analysis. Policy behaviors, levels of government activity (local, state, and federal), policy focus areas, and selected local health department characteristics. The majority (85.1%) of health departments reported at least one of the possible policy behaviors. State population size increased the probability of local policy behavior, and local behavior increased the probability of state policy behavior. State size increased the likelihood of federal policy behavior and the focus on tobacco, emergency preparedness, and obesity/chronic disease. However, the more rural a state was, the more likely policy behavior was at the state and federal levels and not at local levels. Specific policy behaviors mattered less than the level of government activity. Size of state and rurality of health departments influence the government level of policy behavior.

Dispersal and population state of an endangered island lizard following a conservation translocation.

PubMed

Angeli, Nicole F; Lundgren, Ian F; Pollock, Clayton G; Hillis-Starr, Zandy M; Fitzgerald, Lee A

2018-03-01

Population size is widely used as a unit of ecological analysis, yet to estimate population size requires accounting for observed and latent heterogeneity influencing dispersion of individuals across landscapes. In newly established populations, such as when animals are translocated for conservation, dispersal and availability of resources influence patterns of abundance. We developed a process to estimate population size using N-mixture models and spatial models for newly established and dispersing populations. We used our approach to estimate the population size of critically endangered St. Croix ground lizards (Ameiva polops) five years after translocation of 57 individuals to Buck Island, an offshore island of St. Croix, United States Virgin Islands. Estimates of population size incorporated abiotic variables, dispersal limits, and operative environmental temperature available to the lizards to account for low species detection. Operative environmental temperature and distance from the translocation site were always important in fitting the N-mixture model indicating effects of dispersal and species biology on estimates of population size. We found that the population is increasing its range across the island by 5-10% every six months. We spatially interpolated site-specific abundance from the N-mixture model to the entire island, and we estimated 1,473 (95% CI, 940-1,802) St. Croix ground lizards on Buck Island in 2013 corresponding to survey results. This represents a 26-fold increase since the translocation. We predicted the future dispersal of the lizards to all habitats on Buck Island, with the potential for the population to increase by another five times in the future. Incorporating biologically relevant covariates as explicit parameters in population models can improve predictions of population size and the future spread of species introduced to new localities. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

A mixed model for the relationship between climate and human cranial form.

PubMed

Katz, David C; Grote, Mark N; Weaver, Timothy D

2016-08-01

We expand upon a multivariate mixed model from quantitative genetics in order to estimate the magnitude of climate effects in a global sample of recent human crania. In humans, genetic distances are correlated with distances based on cranial form, suggesting that population structure influences both genetic and quantitative trait variation. Studies controlling for this structure have demonstrated significant underlying associations of cranial distances with ecological distances derived from climate variables. However, to assess the biological importance of an ecological predictor, estimates of effect size and uncertainty in the original units of measurement are clearly preferable to significance claims based on units of distance. Unfortunately, the magnitudes of ecological effects are difficult to obtain with distance-based methods, while models that produce estimates of effect size generally do not scale to high-dimensional data like cranial shape and form. Using recent innovations that extend quantitative genetics mixed models to highly multivariate observations, we estimate morphological effects associated with a climate predictor for a subset of the Howells craniometric dataset. Several measurements, particularly those associated with cranial vault breadth, show a substantial linear association with climate, and the multivariate model incorporating a climate predictor is preferred in model comparison. Previous studies demonstrated the existence of a relationship between climate and cranial form. The mixed model quantifies this relationship concretely. Evolutionary questions that require population structure and phylogeny to be disentangled from potential drivers of selection may be particularly well addressed by mixed models. Am J Phys Anthropol 160:593-603, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Tree Size Inequality Reduces Forest Productivity: An Analysis Combining Inventory Data for Ten European Species and a Light Competition Model.

PubMed

Bourdier, Thomas; Cordonnier, Thomas; Kunstler, Georges; Piedallu, Christian; Lagarrigues, Guillaume; Courbaud, Benoit

2016-01-01

Plant structural diversity is usually considered as beneficial for ecosystem functioning. For instance, numerous studies have reported positive species diversity-productivity relationships in plant communities. However, other aspects of structural diversity such as individual size inequality have been far less investigated. In forests, tree size inequality impacts directly tree growth and asymmetric competition, but consequences on forest productivity are still indeterminate. In addition, the effect of tree size inequality on productivity is likely to vary with species shade-tolerance, a key ecological characteristic controlling asymmetric competition and light resource acquisition. Using plot data from the French National Geographic Agency, we studied the response of stand productivity to size inequality for ten forest species differing in shade tolerance. We fitted a basal area stand production model that included abiotic factors, stand density, stand development stage and a tree size inequality index. Then, using a forest dynamics model we explored whether mechanisms of light interception and light use efficiency could explain the tree size inequality effect observed for three of the ten species studied. Size inequality negatively affected basal area increment for seven out of the ten species investigated. However, this effect was not related to the shade tolerance of these species. According to the model simulations, the negative tree size inequality effect could result both from reduced total stand light interception and reduced light use efficiency. Our results demonstrate that negative relationships between size inequality and productivity may be the rule in tree populations. The lack of effect of shade tolerance indicates compensatory mechanisms between effect on light availability and response to light availability. Such a pattern deserves further investigations for mixed forests where complementarity effects between species are involved. When studying the effect of structural diversity on ecosystem productivity, tree size inequality is a major facet that should be taken into account.

Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2001-01-01

One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

Spatial genetic structure in continuous and fragmented populations of Pinus pinaster Aiton.

PubMed

De-Lucas, A I; González-Martínez, S C; Vendramin, G G; Hidalgo, E; Heuertz, M

2009-11-01

Habitat fragmentation, i.e., the reduction of populations into small isolated remnants, is expected to increase spatial genetic structure (SGS) in plant populations through nonrandom mating, lower population densities and potential aggregation of reproductive individuals. We investigated the effects of population size reduction and genetic isolation on SGS in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) using a combined experimental and simulation approach. Maritime pine is a wind-pollinated conifer which has a scattered distribution in the Iberian Peninsula as a result of forest fires and habitat fragmentation. Five highly polymorphic nuclear microsatellites were genotyped in a total of 394 individuals from two population pairs from the Iberian Peninsula, formed by one continuous and one fragmented population each. In agreement with predictions, SGS was significant and stronger in fragments (Sp = 0.020 and Sp = 0.026) than in continuous populations, where significant SGS was detected for one population only (Sp = 0.010). Simulations suggested that under fat-tailed dispersal, small population size is a stronger determinant of SGS than genetic isolation, while under normal dispersal, genetic isolation has a stronger effect. SGS was always stronger in real populations than in simulations, except if unrealistically narrow dispersal and/or high variance of reproductive success were modelled (even when accounting for potential overestimation of SGS in real populations as a result of short-distance sampling). This suggests that factors such as nonrandom mating or selection not considered in the simulations were additionally operating on SGS in Iberian maritime pine populations.

Modeling approaches in avian conservation and the role of field biologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beissinger, Steven R.; Walters, J.R.; Catanzaro, D.G.; Smith, Kimberly G.; Dunning, J.B.; Haig, Susan M.; Noon, Barry; Stith, Bradley M.

2006-01-01

This review grew out of our realization that models play an increasingly important role in conservation but are rarely used in the research of most avian biologists. Modelers are creating models that are more complex and mechanistic and that can incorporate more of the knowledge acquired by field biologists. Such models require field biologists to provide more specific information, larger sample sizes, and sometimes new kinds of data, such as habitat-specific demography and dispersal information. Field biologists need to support model development by testing key model assumptions and validating models. The best conservation decisions will occur where cooperative interaction enables field biologists, modelers, statisticians, and managers to contribute effectively. We begin by discussing the general form of ecological models—heuristic or mechanistic, "scientific" or statistical—and then highlight the structure, strengths, weaknesses, and applications of six types of models commonly used in avian conservation: (1) deterministic single-population matrix models, (2) stochastic population viability analysis (PVA) models for single populations, (3) metapopulation models, (4) spatially explicit models, (5) genetic models, and (6) species distribution models. We end by considering their unique attributes, determining whether the assumptions that underlie the structure are valid, and testing the ability of the model to predict the future correctly.

A modeling framework for integrated harvest and habitat management of North American waterfowl: Case-study of northern pintail metapopulation dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattsson, Brady J.; Runge, M.C.; Devries, J.H.; Boomer, G.S.; Eadie, J.M.; Haukos, D.A.; Fleskes, J.P.; Koons, D.N.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Clark, R.G.

2012-01-01

We developed and evaluated the performance of a metapopulation model enabling managers to examine, for the first time, the consequences of alternative management strategies involving habitat conditions and hunting on both harvest opportunity and carrying capacity (i.e., equilibrium population size in the absence of harvest) for migratory waterfowl at a continental scale. Our focus is on the northern pintail (Anas acuta; hereafter, pintail), which serves as a useful model species to examine the potential for integrating waterfowl harvest and habitat management in North America. We developed submodel structure capturing important processes for pintail populations during breeding, fall migration, winter, and spring migration while encompassing spatial structure representing three core breeding areas and two core nonbreeding areas. A number of continental-scale predictions from our baseline parameterization (e.g., carrying capacity of 5.5 million, equilibrium population size of 2.9 million and harvest rate of 12% at maximum sustained yield [MSY]) were within 10% of those from the pintail harvest strategy under current use by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. To begin investigating the interaction of harvest and habitat management, we examined equilibrium population conditions for pintail at the continental scale across a range of harvest rates while perturbing model parameters to represent: (1) a 10% increase in breeding habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population (PR); and (2) a 10% increase in nonbreeding habitat quantity along in the Gulf Coast (GC). Based on our model and analysis, a greater increase in carrying capacity and sustainable harvest was seen when increasing a proxy for habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population. This finding and underlying assumptions must be critically evaluated, however, before specific management recommendations can be made. To make such recommendations, we require (1) extended, refined submodels with additional parameters linking influences of habitat management and environmental conditions to key life-history parameters; (2) a formal sensitivity analysis of the revised model; (3) an integrated population model that incorporates empirical data for estimating key vital rates; and (4) cost estimates for changing these additional parameters through habitat management efforts. We foresee great utility in using an integrated modeling approach to predict habitat and harvest management influences on continental-scale population responses while explicitly considering putative effects of climate change. Such a model could be readily adapted for management of many habitat-limited species.

Modeling Global Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Society: Hyperbolic Growth and Historical Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurkina, E. S.

2011-09-01

The global historical processes are under consideration; and laws of global evolution of the world community are studied. The world community is considered as a united complex self-developing and self-organizing system. It supposed that the main driving force of social-economical evolution was the positive feedback between the population size and the level of technological development, which was a cause of growth in blow-up regime both of population and of global economic indexes. The study is supported by the results of mathematical modeling founded on a nonlinear heat equation with a source. Every social-economical epoch characterizes by own specific spatial distributed structures. So the global dynamics of world community during the whole history is investigated throughout the prism of the developing of spatial-temporal structures. The model parameters have been chosen so that 1) total population follows stable hyperbolic growth, consistently with the demographic data; 2) the evolution of the World-System goes through 11 stages corresponding to the main historical epochs.

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T.; Matney, Mark

2010-01-01

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 m and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 m.

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Matney, M.; Liou, J.-C.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T. G.

2010-01-01

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version . ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 micron and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 micron.

Data integration for inference about spatial processes: A model-based approach to test and account for data inconsistency

PubMed Central

Pedrini, Paolo; Bragalanti, Natalia; Groff, Claudio

2017-01-01

Recently-developed methods that integrate multiple data sources arising from the same ecological processes have typically utilized structured data from well-defined sampling protocols (e.g., capture-recapture and telemetry). Despite this new methodological focus, the value of opportunistic data for improving inference about spatial ecological processes is unclear and, perhaps more importantly, no procedures are available to formally test whether parameter estimates are consistent across data sources and whether they are suitable for integration. Using data collected on the reintroduced brown bear population in the Italian Alps, a population of conservation importance, we combined data from three sources: traditional spatial capture-recapture data, telemetry data, and opportunistic data. We developed a fully integrated spatial capture-recapture (SCR) model that included a model-based test for data consistency to first compare model estimates using different combinations of data, and then, by acknowledging data-type differences, evaluate parameter consistency. We demonstrate that opportunistic data lend itself naturally to integration within the SCR framework and highlight the value of opportunistic data for improving inference about space use and population size. This is particularly relevant in studies of rare or elusive species, where the number of spatial encounters is usually small and where additional observations are of high value. In addition, our results highlight the importance of testing and accounting for inconsistencies in spatial information from structured and unstructured data so as to avoid the risk of spurious or averaged estimates of space use and consequently, of population size. Our work supports the use of a single modeling framework to combine spatially-referenced data while also accounting for parameter consistency. PMID:28973034

Responses to alternative rainfall regimes and antipoaching in a migratory system.

PubMed

Holdo, Ricardo M; Galvin, Kathleen A; Knapp, Eli; Polasky, Stephen; Hilborn, Ray; Holt, Robert D

2010-03-01

Migratory ungulates may be particularly vulnerable to the challenges imposed by growing human populations and climate change. These species depend on vast areas to sustain their migratory behavior, and in many cases come into frequent contact with human populations outside protected areas. They may also act as spatial coupling agents allowing feedbacks between ecological systems and local economies, particularly in the agropastoral subsistence economies found in the African savanna biome. We used HUMENTS, a spatially realistic socioecological model of the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem in East Africa, to explore the potential impacts of changing climate and poaching on the migratory wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) population, the fire regime, and habitat structure in the ecosystem, as well as changes in the size and economic activities of the human population outside the protected area. Unlike earlier models, the HUMENTS model predicted only moderate declines in the wildebeest population associated with an increasing human population over the next century, with a gradual expansion of agriculture, more poaching, and increases in fire frequency and reduced tree density. Changes in rainfall were predicted to have strong asymmetric effects on the size and economic activity of the human population and on livestock, and more moderate effects on wildlife and other ecological indicators. Conversely, antipoaching had a stronger effect on the ecological portion of the system because of its effect on wildebeest (and therefore on fire and habitat structure), and a weaker effect on the socioeconomic component, except in areas directly adjacent to the protected-area boundary, which were affected by crop-raiding and the availability of wildlife as a source of income. The results highlight the strong direct and indirect effects of rainfall on the various components of socioecological systems in semiarid environments, and the key role of mobile wildlife populations as agents of spatial coupling between the human-dominated and natural portions of ecosystems. They also underscore the fundamental importance of considering the spatial configuration of hunting refuges across the landscape in relation to human populations.

Claustrum of the short-tailed fruit bat, Carollia perspicillata: Alignment of cellular orientation and functional connectivity.

PubMed

Orman, Rena; Kollmar, Richard; Stewart, Mark

2017-04-15

The claustrum is a gray-matter structure that underlies neocortex and reciprocates connections with cortical and subcortical targets. In lower mammals, the claustrum is directly adjacent to neocortex, making the definition of claustral boundaries challenging. Latexin, an endogenous inhibitor of metallocarboxypeptidases, localizes to claustral cells, enabling a clear delineation of claustrum. Given its proportionately large claustrum, we hypothesized that the short-tailed fruit bat, Carollia perspicillata, can be a useful model for claustral structure-function relations. We used latexin immunohistochemistry to identify claustral boundaries and intrinsic structure and multielectrode recordings from brain slices to explore intrinsic excitatory connectivity of the claustrum. Carollia's claustrum contains cells whose intrinsic connectivity and alignment permit the generation of spontaneous, synchronous population events and mirror their pattern of spread in disinhibited brain slices over millimeters. Carollia shows cellular alignment and spontaneous population-activity spread along both horizontal and dorsoventral axes. Carollia claustrum possesses intrinsic excitatory connectivity sufficient to: 1) generate single, spontaneous, synchronized burst discharges, 2) support activity spread along axes where claustral cells are aligned, and 3), because of multiple axes for cell alignment, support activity spread along both rostrocaudal and dorsoventral axes. The smaller event sizes in bat claustrum compared with rat claustrum are consistent with events occurring in population subsets rather than the full claustral cell population. The overall size of claustrum, its pronounced vascularity, and its more complex intrinsic connectivity than rat suggest that the bat is an animal model for claustral structure and function that will permit unique access to claustrum's processing capabilities. J. Comp. Neurol. 525:1459-1474, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of Sample Selection Bias on the Accuracy of Population Structure and Ancestry Inference

PubMed Central

Shringarpure, Suyash; Xing, Eric P.

2014-01-01

Population stratification is an important task in genetic analyses. It provides information about the ancestry of individuals and can be an important confounder in genome-wide association studies. Public genotyping projects have made a large number of datasets available for study. However, practical constraints dictate that of a geographical/ethnic population, only a small number of individuals are genotyped. The resulting data are a sample from the entire population. If the distribution of sample sizes is not representative of the populations being sampled, the accuracy of population stratification analyses of the data could be affected. We attempt to understand the effect of biased sampling on the accuracy of population structure analysis and individual ancestry recovery. We examined two commonly used methods for analyses of such datasets, ADMIXTURE and EIGENSOFT, and found that the accuracy of recovery of population structure is affected to a large extent by the sample used for analysis and how representative it is of the underlying populations. Using simulated data and real genotype data from cattle, we show that sample selection bias can affect the results of population structure analyses. We develop a mathematical framework for sample selection bias in models for population structure and also proposed a correction for sample selection bias using auxiliary information about the sample. We demonstrate that such a correction is effective in practice using simulated and real data. PMID:24637351

Identification of differences in health impact modelling of salt reduction

PubMed Central

Geleijnse, Johanna M.; van Raaij, Joop M. A.; Cappuccio, Francesco P.; Cobiac, Linda C.; Scarborough, Peter; Nusselder, Wilma J.; Jaccard, Abbygail; Boshuizen, Hendriek C.

2017-01-01

We examined whether specific input data and assumptions explain outcome differences in otherwise comparable health impact assessment models. Seven population health models estimating the impact of salt reduction on morbidity and mortality in western populations were compared on four sets of key features, their underlying assumptions and input data. Next, assumptions and input data were varied one by one in a default approach (the DYNAMO-HIA model) to examine how it influences the estimated health impact. Major differences in outcome were related to the size and shape of the dose-response relation between salt and blood pressure and blood pressure and disease. Modifying the effect sizes in the salt to health association resulted in the largest change in health impact estimates (33% lower), whereas other changes had less influence. Differences in health impact assessment model structure and input data may affect the health impact estimate. Therefore, clearly defined assumptions and transparent reporting for different models is crucial. However, the estimated impact of salt reduction was substantial in all of the models used, emphasizing the need for public health actions. PMID:29182636

Effects of consumption-oriented versus trophy-oriented fisheries on Muskellunge population size structure in northern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faust, Matthew D.; Hansen, Michael J.

2016-01-01

To determine whether a consumption-oriented fishery was compatible with a trophy-oriented fishery for Muskellunge Esox masquinongy, we modeled effects of a spearing fishery and recreational angling fishery on population size structure (i.e., numbers of fish ≥ 102, 114, and 127 cm) in northern Wisconsin. An individual-based simulation model was used to quantify the effect of harvest mortality at currently observed levels of recreational angling and tribal spearing fishery exploitation, along with simulated increases in exploitation, for three typical growth potentials (i.e., low, moderate, and high) of Muskellunge in northern Wisconsin across a variety of minimum length limits (i.e., 71, 102, 114, and 127 cm). Populations with moderate to high growth potential and minimum length limits ≥ 114 cm were predicted to have lower declines in numbers of trophy Muskellunge when subjected to angling-only and mixed fisheries at observed and increased levels of exploitation, which suggested that fisheries with disparate motivations may be able to coexist under certain conditions such as restrictive length limits and low levels of exploitation. However, for most Muskellunge populations in northern Wisconsin regulated by a 102-cm minimum length limit, both angling and spearing fisheries may reduce numbers of trophy Muskellunge as larger declines were predicted across all growth potentials. Our results may be useful if Muskellunge management options in northern Wisconsin are re-examined in the future.

Games of multicellularity.

PubMed

Kaveh, Kamran; Veller, Carl; Nowak, Martin A

2016-08-21

Evolutionary game dynamics are often studied in the context of different population structures. Here we propose a new population structure that is inspired by simple multicellular life forms. In our model, cells reproduce but can stay together after reproduction. They reach complexes of a certain size, n, before producing single cells again. The cells within a complex derive payoff from an evolutionary game by interacting with each other. The reproductive rate of cells is proportional to their payoff. We consider all two-strategy games. We study deterministic evolutionary dynamics with mutations, and derive exact conditions for selection to favor one strategy over another. Our main result has the same symmetry as the well-known sigma condition, which has been proven for stochastic game dynamics and weak selection. For a maximum complex size of n=2 our result holds for any intensity of selection. For n≥3 it holds for weak selection. As specific examples we study the prisoner's dilemma and hawk-dove games. Our model advances theoretical work on multicellularity by allowing for frequency-dependent interactions within groups. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age structured dynamical model for an endangered lizard Eulamprus leuraensis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supriatna, A. K.; Rachmadani, Q.; Ilahi, F.; Anggriani, N.; Nuraini, N.

2014-02-01

The Blue Mountains Water Skink, Eulamprus leuraensis, is listed as an endangered species under the IUCN Red List. This lizard species has a typical characteristic of growth with a low fecundity. It is known that the offspring quality may decline with maternal age of the parents despite they can grow rapidly from neonatal size to adult size within two to three years. It is also believed that low adult survival rates and specialization on rare and fragmented type of habitat are the main cause leading to the endangered status of the lizard. A mathematical model with age structure for Eulamprus leuraensis, taking into account the variation of survival rate in each structure and the declining of offspring quality with respect to maternal age is considered here. Stable coexistence of non-trivial equilibriumis shown. It is also shown that an endangered status is due to combination oflow reproductive output and low rates of adult survival. Further, understanding the age structure within populations can facilitate efective management of the endangered species.

Modelling predation by transient leopard seals for an ecosystem-based management of Southern Ocean fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forcada, J.; Malone, D.; Royle, J. Andrew; Staniland, I.J.

2009-01-01

Correctly quantifying the impacts of rare apex marine predators is essential to ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management, where harvesting must be sustainable for targeted species and their dependent predators. This requires modelling the uncertainty in such processes as predator life history, seasonal abundance and movement, size-based predation, energetic requirements, and prey vulnerability. We combined these uncertainties to evaluate the predatory impact of transient leopard seals on a community of mesopredators (seals and penguins) and their prey at South Georgia, and assess the implications for an ecosystem-based management. The mesopredators are highly dependent on Antarctic krill and icefish, which are targeted by regional fisheries. We used a state-space formulation to combine (1) a mark-recapture open-population model and individual identification data to assess seasonally variable leopard seal arrival and departure dates, numbers, and residency times; (2) a size-based bioenergetic model; and (3) a size-based prey choice model from a diet analysis. Our models indicated that prey choice and consumption reflected seasonal changes in leopard seal population size and structure, size-selective predation and prey vulnerability. A population of 104 (90-125) leopard seals, of which 64% were juveniles, consumed less than 2% of the Antarctic fur seal pup production of the area (50% of total ingested energy, IE), but ca. 12-16% of the local gentoo penguin population (20% IE). Antarctic krill (28% IE) were the only observed food of leopard seal pups and supplemented the diet of older individuals. Direct impacts on krill and fish were negligible, but the "escapement" due to leopard seal predation on fur seal pups and penguins could be significant for the mackerel icefish fishery at South Georgia. These results suggest that: (1) rare apex predators like leopard seals may control, and may depend on, populations of mesopredators dependent on prey species targeted by fisheries; and (2) predatory impacts and community control may vary throughout the predator's geographic range, and differ across ecosystems and management areas, depending on the seasonal abundance of the prey and the predator's dispersal movements. This understanding is important to integrate the predator needs as natural mortality of its prey in models to set prey catch limits for fisheries. Reliable estimates of the variability of these needs are essential for a precautionary interpretation in the context of an ecosystem-based management. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Modelling predation by transient leopard seals for an ecosystem-based management of Southern Ocean fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forcada, J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Staniland, I.J.

2009-01-01

Correctly quantifying the impacts of rare apex marine predators is essential to ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management, where harvesting must be sustainable for targeted species and their dependent predators. This requires modelling the uncertainty in such processes as predator life history, seasonal abundance and movement, size-based predation, energetic requirements, and prey vulnerability. We combined these uncertainties to evaluate the predatory impact of transient leopard seals on a community of mesopredators (seals and penguins) and their prey at South Georgia, and assess the implications for an ecosystem-based management. The mesopredators are highly dependent on Antarctic krill and icefish, which are targeted by regional fisheries. We used a state-space formulation to combine (1) a mark-recapture open-population model and individual identification data to assess seasonally variable leopard seal arrival and departure dates, numbers, and residency times; (2) a size-based bioenergetic model; and (3) a size-based prey choice model from a diet analysis. Our models indicated that prey choice and consumption reflected seasonal changes in leopard seal population size and structure, size-selective predation and prey vulnerability. A population of 104 (90?125) leopard seals, of which 64% were juveniles, consumed less than 2% of the Antarctic fur seal pup production of the area (50% of total ingested energy, IE), but ca. 12?16% of the local gentoo penguin population (20% IE). Antarctic krill (28% IE) were the only observed food of leopard seal pups and supplemented the diet of older individuals. Direct impacts on krill and fish were negligible, but the ?escapement? due to leopard seal predation on fur seal pups and penguins could be significant for the mackerel icefish fishery at South Georgia. These results suggest that: (1) rare apex predators like leopard seals may control, and may depend on, populations of mesopredators dependent on prey species targeted by fisheries; and (2) predatory impacts and community control may vary throughout the predator's geographic range, and differ across ecosystems and management areas, depending on the seasonal abundance of the prey and the predator's dispersal movements. This understanding is important to integrate the predator needs as natural mortality of its prey in models to set prey catch limits for fisheries. Reliable estimates of the variability of these needs are essential for a precautionary interpretation in the context of an ecosystem-based management.

Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.

2010-01-01

We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotie fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Data-Limited Population-Status Evaluation of Two Coastal Fishes in Southern Angola Using Recreational Catch Length-Frequency Data

PubMed Central

Beckensteiner, Jennifer; Kaplan, David M.; Potts, Warren M.; Santos, Carmen V.; O’Farrell, Michael R.

2016-01-01

Excessive truncation of a population’s size structure is often identified as an important deleterious effect of exploitation, yet the effect on population persistence of size-structure truncation caused by exploitation is often not quantified due to data limitations. In this study, we estimate changes in eggs per recruit (EPR) using annual length-frequency samples over a 9 year period to assess persistence of the two most important recreational fishes in southern Angola: west coast dusky kob (Argyrosomus coronus) and leerfish (Lichia amia). Using a length- and age-structured model, we improve on an existing method to fit this type of model to length-frequency data and estimate EPR. The objectives of the methodological changes are to add flexibility and robustness to the approach for assessing population status in data-limited situations. Results indicate that dusky kob presents very low levels of EPR (5%-10% of the per recruit reproductive capacity in the absence of fishing) in 2013, whereas large inter-annual variability in leerfish estimates suggest caution must be applied when drawing conclusions about its exploitation status. Using simulated length frequency data with known parameter values, we demonstrate that recruitment decline due to overexploitation leads to overestimation of EPR values. Considering the low levels of EPR estimated for the study species, recruitment limitation is not impossible and true EPR values may be even lower than our estimates. It is, therefore, likely that management action, such as the creation of Marine Protected Areas, is needed to reconstitute the west coast dusky kob population. PMID:26829489

Body size and meta-community structure: the allometric scaling of parasitic worm communities in their mammalian hosts.

PubMed

DE Leo, Giulio A; Dobson, Andrew P; Gatto, Marino

2016-06-01

In this paper we derive from first principles the expected body sizes of the parasite communities that can coexist in a mammal of given body size. We use a mixture of mathematical models and known allometric relationships to examine whether host and parasite life histories constrain the diversity of parasite species that can coexist in the population of any host species. The model consists of one differential equation for each parasite species and a single density-dependent nonlinear equation for the affected host under the assumption of exploitation competition. We derive threshold conditions for the coexistence and competitive exclusion of parasite species using invasion criteria and stability analysis of the resulting equilibria. These results are then used to evaluate the range of parasites species that can invade and establish in a target host and identify the 'optimal' size of a parasite species for a host of a given body size; 'optimal' is defined as the body size of a parasite species that cannot be outcompeted by any other parasite species. The expected distributions of parasites body sizes in hosts of different sizes are then compared with those observed in empirical studies. Our analysis predicts the relative abundance of parasites of different size that establish in the host and suggests that increasing the ratio of parasite body size to host body size above a minimum threshold increases the persistence of the parasite population.

Density-dependence as a size-independent regulatory mechanism.

PubMed

de Vladar, Harold P

2006-01-21

The growth function of populations is central in biomathematics. The main dogma is the existence of density-dependence mechanisms, which can be modelled with distinct functional forms that depend on the size of the population. One important class of regulatory functions is the theta-logistic, which generalizes the logistic equation. Using this model as a motivation, this paper introduces a simple dynamical reformulation that generalizes many growth functions. The reformulation consists of two equations, one for population size, and one for the growth rate. Furthermore, the model shows that although population is density-dependent, the dynamics of the growth rate does not depend either on population size, nor on the carrying capacity. Actually, the growth equation is uncoupled from the population size equation, and the model has only two parameters, a Malthusian parameter rho and a competition coefficient theta. Distinct sign combinations of these parameters reproduce not only the family of theta-logistics, but also the van Bertalanffy, Gompertz and Potential Growth equations, among other possibilities. It is also shown that, except for two critical points, there is a general size-scaling relation that includes those appearing in the most important allometric theories, including the recently proposed Metabolic Theory of Ecology. With this model, several issues of general interest are discussed such as the growth of animal population, extinctions, cell growth and allometry, and the effect of environment over a population.

Asymmetric competition causes multimodal size distributions in spatially structured populations

PubMed Central

Velázquez, Jorge; Allen, Robert B.; Coomes, David A.; Eichhorn, Markus P.

2016-01-01

Plant sizes within populations often exhibit multimodal distributions, even when all individuals are the same age and have experienced identical conditions. To establish the causes of this, we created an individual-based model simulating the growth of trees in a spatially explicit framework, which was parametrized using data from a long-term study of forest stands in New Zealand. First, we demonstrate that asymmetric resource competition is a necessary condition for the formation of multimodal size distributions within cohorts. By contrast, the legacy of small-scale clustering during recruitment is transient and quickly overwhelmed by density-dependent mortality. Complex multi-layered size distributions are generated when established individuals are restricted in the spatial domain within which they can capture resources. The number of modes reveals the effective number of direct competitors, while the separation and spread of modes are influenced by distances among established individuals. Asymmetric competition within local neighbourhoods can therefore generate a range of complex size distributions within even-aged cohorts. PMID:26817778

An eco-physiological model of the impact of temperature on Aedes aegypti life history traits.

PubMed

Padmanabha, Harish; Correa, Fabio; Legros, Mathieu; Nijhout, H Fredrick; Lord, Cynthia; Lounibos, L Philip

2012-12-01

Physiological processes mediate the impact of ecological conditions on the life histories of insect vectors. For the dengue/chikungunya mosquito, Aedes aegypti, three life history traits that are critical to urban population dynamics and control are: size, development rate and starvation mortality. In this paper we make use of prior laboratory experiments on each of these traits at 2°C intervals between 20 and 30°C, in conjunction with eco-evolutionary theory and studies on A.aegypti physiology, in order to develop a conceptual and mathematical framework that can predict their thermal sensitivity. Our model of reserve dependent growth (RDG), which considers a potential tradeoff between the accumulation of reserves and structural biomass, was able to robustly predict laboratory observations, providing a qualitative improvement over the approach most commonly used in other A.aegypti models. RDG predictions of reduced size at higher temperatures, but increased reserves relative to size, are supported by the available evidence in Aedes spp. We offer the potentially general hypothesis that temperature-size patterns in mosquitoes are driven by a net benefit of finishing the growing stage with proportionally greater reserves relative to structure at warmer temperatures. By relating basic energy flows to three fundamental life history traits, we provide a mechanistic framework for A.aegypti development to which ecological complexity can be added. Ultimately, this could provide a framework for developing and field testing hypotheses on how processes such as climate variation, density dependent regulation, human behavior or control strategies may influence A.aegypti population dynamics and disease risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Joint genetic analysis of hippocampal size in mouse and human identifies a novel gene linked to neurodegenerative disease.

PubMed

Ashbrook, David G; Williams, Robert W; Lu, Lu; Stein, Jason L; Hibar, Derrek P; Nichols, Thomas E; Medland, Sarah E; Thompson, Paul M; Hager, Reinmar

2014-10-03

Variation in hippocampal volume has been linked to significant differences in memory, behavior, and cognition among individuals. To identify genetic variants underlying such differences and associated disease phenotypes, multinational consortia such as ENIGMA have used large magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data sets in human GWAS studies. In addition, mapping studies in mouse model systems have identified genetic variants for brain structure variation with great power. A key challenge is to understand how genetically based differences in brain structure lead to the propensity to develop specific neurological disorders. We combine the largest human GWAS of brain structure with the largest mammalian model system, the BXD recombinant inbred mouse population, to identify novel genetic targets influencing brain structure variation that are linked to increased risk for neurological disorders. We first use a novel cross-species, comparative analysis using mouse and human genetic data to identify a candidate gene, MGST3, associated with adult hippocampus size in both systems. We then establish the coregulation and function of this gene in a comprehensive systems-analysis. We find that MGST3 is associated with hippocampus size and is linked to a group of neurodegenerative disorders, such as Alzheimer's.

Detecting past changes of effective population size

PubMed Central

Nikolic, Natacha; Chevalet, Claude

2014-01-01

Understanding and predicting population abundance is a major challenge confronting scientists. Several genetic models have been developed using microsatellite markers to estimate the present and ancestral effective population sizes. However, to get an overview on the evolution of population requires that past fluctuation of population size be traceable. To address the question, we developed a new model estimating the past changes of effective population size from microsatellite by resolving coalescence theory and using approximate likelihoods in a Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach. The efficiency of the model and its sensitivity to gene flow and to assumptions on the mutational process were checked using simulated data and analysis. The model was found especially useful to provide evidence of transient changes of population size in the past. The times at which some past demographic events cannot be detected because they are too ancient and the risk that gene flow may suggest the false detection of a bottleneck are discussed considering the distribution of coalescence times. The method was applied on real data sets from several Atlantic salmon populations. The method called VarEff (Variation of Effective size) was implemented in the R package VarEff and is made available at https://qgsp.jouy.inra.fr and at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/VarEff. PMID:25067949

The impact of accelerating faster than exponential population growth on genetic variation.

PubMed

Reppell, Mark; Boehnke, Michael; Zöllner, Sebastian

2014-03-01

Current human sequencing projects observe an abundance of extremely rare genetic variation, suggesting recent acceleration of population growth. To better understand the impact of such accelerating growth on the quantity and nature of genetic variation, we present a new class of models capable of incorporating faster than exponential growth in a coalescent framework. Our work shows that such accelerated growth affects only the population size in the recent past and thus large samples are required to detect the models' effects on patterns of variation. When we compare models with fixed initial growth rate, models with accelerating growth achieve very large current population sizes and large samples from these populations contain more variation than samples from populations with constant growth. This increase is driven almost entirely by an increase in singleton variation. Moreover, linkage disequilibrium decays faster in populations with accelerating growth. When we instead condition on current population size, models with accelerating growth result in less overall variation and slower linkage disequilibrium decay compared to models with exponential growth. We also find that pairwise linkage disequilibrium of very rare variants contains information about growth rates in the recent past. Finally, we demonstrate that models of accelerating growth may substantially change estimates of present-day effective population sizes and growth times.

Predator Persistence through Variability of Resource Productivity in Tritrophic Systems.

PubMed

Soudijn, Floor H; de Roos, André M

2017-12-01

The trophic structure of species communities depends on the energy transfer between trophic levels. Primary productivity varies strongly through time, challenging the persistence of species at higher trophic levels. Yet resource variability has mostly been studied in systems with only one or two trophic levels. We test the effect of variability in resource productivity in a tritrophic model system including a resource, a size-structured consumer, and a size-specific predator. The model complies with fundamental principles of mass conservation and the body-size dependence of individual-level energetics and predator-prey interactions. Surprisingly, we find that resource variability may promote predator persistence. The positive effect of variability on the predator arises through periods with starvation mortality of juvenile prey, which reduces the intraspecific competition in the prey population. With increasing variability in productivity and starvation mortality in the juvenile prey, the prey availability increases in the size range preferred by the predator. The positive effect of prey mortality on the trophic transfer efficiency depends on the biologically realistic consideration of body size-dependent and food-dependent functions for growth and reproduction in our model. Our findings show that variability may promote the trophic transfer efficiency, indicating that environmental variability may sustain species at higher trophic levels in natural ecosystems.

On the number of New World founders: a population genetic portrait of the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Hey, Jody

2005-06-01

The founding of New World populations by Asian peoples is the focus of considerable archaeological and genetic research, and there persist important questions on when and how these events occurred. Genetic data offer great potential for the study of human population history, but there are significant challenges in discerning distinct demographic processes. A new method for the study of diverging populations was applied to questions on the founding and history of Amerind-speaking Native American populations. The model permits estimation of founding population sizes, changes in population size, time of population formation, and gene flow. Analyses of data from nine loci are consistent with the general portrait that has emerged from archaeological and other kinds of evidence. The estimated effective size of the founding population for the New World is fewer than 80 individuals, approximately 1% of the effective size of the estimated ancestral Asian population. By adding a splitting parameter to population divergence models it becomes possible to develop detailed portraits of human demographic history. Analyses of Asian and New World data support a model of a recent founding of the New World by a population of quite small effective size.

Contemporary and historic factors influence differently genetic differentiation and diversity in a tropical palm

PubMed Central

da Silva Carvalho, C; Ribeiro, M C; Côrtes, M C; Galetti, M; Collevatti, R G

2015-01-01

Population genetics theory predicts loss in genetic variability because of drift and inbreeding in isolated plant populations; however, it has been argued that long-distance pollination and seed dispersal may be able to maintain gene flow, even in highly fragmented landscapes. We tested how historical effective population size, historical migration and contemporary landscape structure, such as forest cover, patch isolation and matrix resistance, affect genetic variability and differentiation of seedlings in a tropical palm (Euterpe edulis) in a human-modified rainforest. We sampled 16 sites within five landscapes in the Brazilian Atlantic forest and assessed genetic variability and differentiation using eight microsatellite loci. Using a model selection approach, none of the covariates explained the variation observed in inbreeding coefficients among populations. The variation in genetic diversity among sites was best explained by historical effective population size. Allelic richness was best explained by historical effective population size and matrix resistance, whereas genetic differentiation was explained by matrix resistance. Coalescence analysis revealed high historical migration between sites within landscapes and constant historical population sizes, showing that the genetic differentiation is most likely due to recent changes caused by habitat loss and fragmentation. Overall, recent landscape changes have a greater influence on among-population genetic variation than historical gene flow process. As immediate restoration actions in landscapes with low forest amount, the development of more permeable matrices to allow the movement of pollinators and seed dispersers may be an effective strategy to maintain microevolutionary processes. PMID:25873150

The use of a robust capture-recapture design in small mammal population studies: A field example with Microtus pennsylvanicus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Hines, James E.

1984-01-01

The robust design of Pollock (1982) was used to estimate parameters of a Maryland M. pennsylvanicus population. Closed model tests provided strong evidence of heterogeneity of capture probability, and model M eta (Otis et al., 1978) was selected as the most appropriate model for estimating population size. The Jolly-Seber model goodness-of-fit test indicated rejection of the model for this data set, and the M eta estimates of population size were all higher than the Jolly-Seber estimates. Both of these results are consistent with the evidence of heterogeneous capture probabilities. The authors thus used M eta estimates of population size, Jolly-Seber estimates of survival rate, and estimates of birth-immigration based on a combination of the population size and survival rate estimates. Advantages of the robust design estimates for certain inference procedures are discussed, and the design is recommended for future small mammal capture-recapture studies directed at estimation.

Calculation of Disease Dynamics in a Population of Households

PubMed Central

Ross, Joshua V.; House, Thomas; Keeling, Matt J.

2010-01-01

Early mathematical representations of infectious disease dynamics assumed a single, large, homogeneously mixing population. Over the past decade there has been growing interest in models consisting of multiple smaller subpopulations (households, workplaces, schools, communities), with the natural assumption of strong homogeneous mixing within each subpopulation, and weaker transmission between subpopulations. Here we consider a model of SIRS (susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible) infection dynamics in a very large (assumed infinite) population of households, with the simplifying assumption that each household is of the same size (although all methods may be extended to a population with a heterogeneous distribution of household sizes). For this households model we present efficient methods for studying several quantities of epidemiological interest: (i) the threshold for invasion; (ii) the early growth rate; (iii) the household offspring distribution; (iv) the endemic prevalence of infection; and (v) the transient dynamics of the process. We utilize these methods to explore a wide region of parameter space appropriate for human infectious diseases. We then extend these results to consider the effects of more realistic gamma-distributed infectious periods. We discuss how all these results differ from standard homogeneous-mixing models and assess the implications for the invasion, transmission and persistence of infection. The computational efficiency of the methodology presented here will hopefully aid in the parameterisation of structured models and in the evaluation of appropriate responses for future disease outbreaks. PMID:20305791

Social structural consequences of population growth.

PubMed

Adams, R E

1981-01-01

Estimates from archaeological data of the numbers in the elite classes, nonelite occupational specialists, density of population, city size, and size of political units in the ancient Maya civilization suggest that there was a quantum shift in rate of development in the Early Classic period, associated with intensification of agriculture, and that the social structure approximated to a generalized feudal pattern.

An "age"-structured model of hematopoietic stem cell organization with application to chronic myeloid leukemia.

PubMed

Roeder, Ingo; Herberg, Maria; Horn, Matthias

2009-04-01

Previously, we have modeled hematopoietic stem cell organization by a stochastic, single cell-based approach. Applications to different experimental systems demonstrated that this model consistently explains a broad variety of in vivo and in vitro data. A major advantage of the agent-based model (ABM) is the representation of heterogeneity within the hematopoietic stem cell population. However, this advantage comes at the price of time-consuming simulations if the systems become large. One example in this respect is the modeling of disease and treatment dynamics in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), where the realistic number of individual cells to be considered exceeds 10(6). To overcome this deficiency, without losing the representation of the inherent heterogeneity of the stem cell population, we here propose to approximate the ABM by a system of partial differential equations (PDEs). The major benefit of such an approach is its independence from the size of the system. Although this mean field approach includes a number of simplifying assumptions compared to the ABM, it retains the key structure of the model including the "age"-structure of stem cells. We show that the PDE model qualitatively and quantitatively reproduces the results of the agent-based approach.

Life history and past demography maintain genetic structure, outcrossing rate, contemporary pollen gene flow of an understory herb in a highly fragmented rainforest

PubMed Central

Suárez-Montes, Pilar; Chávez-Pesqueira, Mariana

2016-01-01

Introduction Theory predicts that habitat fragmentation, by reducing population size and increasing isolation among remnant populations, can alter their genetic diversity and structure. A cascade of effects is expected: genetic drift and inbreeding after a population bottleneck, changes in biotic interactions that may affect, as in the case of plants, pollen dynamics, mating system, reproductive success. The detection of the effects of contemporary habitat fragmentation on the genetic structure of populations are conditioned by the magnitude of change, given the few number of generations since the onset of fragmentation, especially for long-lived organisms. However, the present-day genetic structure of populations may bear the signature of past demography events. Here, we examine the effects of rainforest fragmentation on the genetic diversity, population structure, mating system (outcrossing rate), indirect gene flow and contemporary pollen dynamics in the understory herb Aphelandra aurantiaca. Also, we assessed its present-day genetic structure under different past demographic scenarios. Methods Twelve populations of A. aurantiaca were sampled in large (4), medium (3), and small (5) forest fragments in the lowland tropical rainforest at Los Tuxtlas region. Variation at 11 microsatellite loci was assessed in 28–30 reproductive plants per population. In two medium- and two large-size fragments we estimated the density of reproductive plants, and the mating system by analyzing the progeny of different mother plants per population. Results Despite prevailing habitat fragmentation, populations of A. aurantiaca possess high genetic variation (He = 0.61), weak genetic structure (Rst = 0.037), and slight inbreeding in small fragments. Effective population sizes (Ne) were large, but slightly lower in small fragments. Migrants derive mostly from large and medium size fragments. Gene dispersal is highly restricted but long distance gene dispersal events were detected. Aphelandra aurantiaca shows a mixed mating system (tm = 0.81) and the outcrossing rate have not been affected by habitat fragmentation. A strong pollen pool structure was detected due to few effective pollen donors (Nep) and low distance pollen movement, pointing that most plants received pollen from close neighbors. Past demographic fluctuations may have affected the present population genetic structure as Bayesian coalescent analysis revealed the signature of past population expansion, possibly during warmer conditions after the last glacial maximum. Discussion Habitat fragmentation has not increased genetic differentiation or reduced genetic diversity of A. aurantiaca despite dozens of generations since the onset of fragmentation in the region of Los Tuxtlas. Instead, past population expansion is compatible with the lack of observed genetic structure. The predicted negative effects of rainforest fragmentation on genetic diversity and population structure of A. aurantiaca seem to have been buffered owing to its large effective populations and long-distance dispersal events. In particular, its mixed-mating system, mostly of outcrossing, suggests high efficiency of pollinators promoting connectivity and reducing inbreeding. However, some results point that the effects of fragmentation are underway, as two small fragments showed higher membership probabilities to their population of origin, suggesting genetic isolation. Our findings underscore the importance of fragment size to maintain genetic connectivity across the landscape. PMID:28028460

The effects of temperature and diet on age grading and population age structure determination in Drosophila.

PubMed

Aw, Wen C; Ballard, J William O

2013-10-01

The age structure of natural population is of interest in physiological, life history and ecological studies but it is often difficult to determine. One methodological problem is that samples may need to be invasively sampled preventing subsequent taxonomic curation. A second problem is that it can be very expensive to accurately determine the age structure of given population because large sample sizes are often necessary. In this study, we test the effects of temperature (17 °C, 23 °C and 26 °C) and diet (standard cornmeal and low calorie diet) on the accuracy of the non-invasive, inexpensive and high throughput near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) technique to determine the age of Drosophila flies. Composite and simplified calibration models were developed for each sex. Independent sets for each temperature and diet treatments with flies not involved in calibration model were then used to validate the accuracy of the calibration models. The composite NIRS calibration model was generated by including flies reared under all temperatures and diets. This approach permits rapid age measurement and age structure determination in large population of flies as less than or equal to 9 days, or more than 9 days old with 85-97% and 64-99% accuracy, respectively. The simplified calibration models were generated by including flies reared at 23 °C on standard diet. Low accuracy rates were observed when simplified calibration models were used to identify (a) Drosophila reared at 17 °C and 26 °C and (b) 23 °C with low calorie diet. These results strongly suggest that appropriate calibration models need to be developed in the laboratory before this technique can be reliably used in field. These calibration models should include the major environmental variables that change across space and time in the particular natural population to be studied. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Risk GP Model: the standard model of prediction in medicine.

PubMed

Fuller, Jonathan; Flores, Luis J

2015-12-01

With the ascent of modern epidemiology in the Twentieth Century came a new standard model of prediction in public health and clinical medicine. In this article, we describe the structure of the model. The standard model uses epidemiological measures-most commonly, risk measures-to predict outcomes (prognosis) and effect sizes (treatment) in a patient population that can then be transformed into probabilities for individual patients. In the first step, a risk measure in a study population is generalized or extrapolated to a target population. In the second step, the risk measure is particularized or transformed to yield probabilistic information relevant to a patient from the target population. Hence, we call the approach the Risk Generalization-Particularization (Risk GP) Model. There are serious problems at both stages, especially with the extent to which the required assumptions will hold and the extent to which we have evidence for the assumptions. Given that there are other models of prediction that use different assumptions, we should not inflexibly commit ourselves to one standard model. Instead, model pluralism should be standard in medical prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing recreational harvest regulations for an unexploited lake trout population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lenker, Melissa A; Weidel, Brian C.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Solomon, Christopher T.

2016-01-01

Developing fishing regulations for previously unexploited populations presents numerous challenges, many of which stem from a scarcity of baseline information about abundance, population productivity, and expected angling pressure. We used simulation models to test the effect of six management strategies (catch and release; trophy, minimum, and maximum length limits; and protected and exploited slot length limits) on an unexploited population of Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush in Follensby Pond, a 393-ha lake located in New York State’s Adirondack Park. We combined field and literature data and mark–recapture abundance estimates to parameterize an age-structured population model and used the model to assess the effects of each management strategy on abundance, catch per unit effort (CPUE), and harvest over a range of angler effort (0–2,000 angler-days/year). Lake Trout density (3.5 fish/ha for fish ≥ age 13, the estimated age at maturity) was similar to densities observed in other unexploited systems, but growth rate was relatively slow. Maximum harvest occurred at levels of effort ≤ 1,000 angler-days/year in all the scenarios considered. Regulations that permitted harvest of large postmaturation fish, such as New York’s standard Lake Trout minimum size limit or a trophy size limit, resulted in low harvest and high angler CPUE. Regulations that permitted harvest of small and sometimes immature fish, such as a protected slot or maximum size limit, allowed high harvest but resulted in low angler CPUE and produced rapid declines in harvest with increases in effort beyond the effort consistent with maximum yield. Management agencies can use these results to match regulations to management goals and to assess the risks of different management options for unexploited Lake Trout populations and other fish species with similar life history traits.

Population Structure Shapes Copy Number Variation in Malaria Parasites.

PubMed

Cheeseman, Ian H; Miller, Becky; Tan, John C; Tan, Asako; Nair, Shalini; Nkhoma, Standwell C; De Donato, Marcos; Rodulfo, Hectorina; Dondorp, Arjen; Branch, Oralee H; Mesia, Lastenia Ruiz; Newton, Paul; Mayxay, Mayfong; Amambua-Ngwa, Alfred; Conway, David J; Nosten, François; Ferdig, Michael T; Anderson, Tim J C

2016-03-01

If copy number variants (CNVs) are predominantly deleterious, we would expect them to be more efficiently purged from populations with a large effective population size (Ne) than from populations with a small Ne. Malaria parasites (Plasmodium falciparum) provide an excellent organism to examine this prediction, because this protozoan shows a broad spectrum of population structures within a single species, with large, stable, outbred populations in Africa, small unstable inbred populations in South America and with intermediate population characteristics in South East Asia. We characterized 122 single-clone parasites, without prior laboratory culture, from malaria-infected patients in seven countries in Africa, South East Asia and South America using a high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism/CNV microarray. We scored 134 high-confidence CNVs across the parasite exome, including 33 deletions and 102 amplifications, which ranged in size from <500 bp to 59 kb, as well as 10,107 flanking, biallelic single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Overall, CNVs were rare, small, and skewed toward low frequency variants, consistent with the deleterious model. Relative to African and South East Asian populations, CNVs were significantly more common in South America, showed significantly less skew in allele frequencies, and were significantly larger. On this background of low frequency CNV, we also identified several high-frequency CNVs under putative positive selection using an FST outlier analysis. These included known adaptive CNVs containing rh2b and pfmdr1, and several other CNVs (e.g., DNA helicase and three conserved proteins) that require further investigation. Our data are consistent with a significant impact of genetic structure on CNV burden in an important human pathogen. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Reliability of Different Mark-Recapture Methods for Population Size Estimation Tested against Reference Population Sizes Constructed from Field Data

PubMed Central

Grimm, Annegret; Gruber, Bernd; Henle, Klaus

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK). If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2). Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to evaluate the performance of mark-recapture population size estimators under field conditions, which is essential for selecting an appropriate method and obtaining reliable results in ecology and conservation biology, and thus for sound management. PMID:24896260

Determining the drivers of population structure in a highly urbanized landscape to inform conservation planning.

PubMed

Thomassen, Henri A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Semple Delaney, Kathleen; Riley, Seth P D; Serieys, Laurel E K; Pease, Katherine; Wayne, Robert K; Smith, Thomas B

2018-02-01

Understanding the environmental contributors to population structure is of paramount importance for conservation in urbanized environments. We used spatially explicit models to determine genetic population structure under current and future environmental conditions across a highly fragmented, human-dominated environment in Southern California to assess the effects of natural ecological variation and urbanization. We focused on 7 common species with diverse habitat requirements, home-range sizes, and dispersal abilities. We quantified the relative roles of potential barriers, including natural environmental characteristics and an anthropogenic barrier created by a major highway, in shaping genetic variation. The ability to predict genetic variation in our models differed among species: 11-81% of intraspecific genetic variation was explained by environmental variables. Although an anthropogenically induced barrier (a major highway) severely restricted gene flow and movement at broad scales for some species, genetic variation seemed to be primarily driven by natural environmental heterogeneity at a local level. Our results show how assessing environmentally associated variation for multiple species under current and future climate conditions can help identify priority regions for maximizing population persistence under environmental change in urbanized regions. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

PubMed

Lee, R

1983-01-01

There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: demographic influences on household or family behavior; population growth and reproducible capital; population size and fixed factors; and population and advantages of scale. These 4 models emphasize the supply side effects of population. A few of the ways in which these theories have been combined are sketched. Neoclassical growth models often have been combined with age distributed populations of individuals (or households), assumed to pursue optimal life cycle consumption and saving. In some well known development models, neoclassical growth models for the modern sector are linked by labor markets and migration to fixed factor (land) models of the traditional (agricultural) sector. A whole series of macro simulation models for developed and developing countries was based on single sector neoclassical growth models with age distributed populations. Yet, typically the household level foundations of assumed age distribution effects were not worked out. Simon's (1977) simulation models are in a class by themselves, for they are the only models that attempt to incorporate all the kinds of effects discussed. The economic demography of the individual and family cycle, as it is affected by regimes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, taken as given, are considered. The examination touches on many of the purported consequences of aggregate population growth and age composition, since so many of these are based implicitly or explicitly on assertions about micro level behavior. Demographic influences on saving and consumption, on general labor supply and female labor supply, and on problems of youth and old age dependency frequently fall in this category. Finally, attention is focused specifically on macro economic issues in the consequences of population in both developed and developing countries. In general cross national studies have failed to provide rough and stylized depiction of the consequences of rapid population growth, unless the absence of significant results is itself the result.

Advanced hierarchical distance sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, Andy

2016-01-01

In this chapter, we cover a number of important extensions of the basic hierarchical distance-sampling (HDS) framework from Chapter 8. First, we discuss the inclusion of “individual covariates,” such as group size, in the HDS model. This is important in many surveys where animals form natural groups that are the primary observation unit, with the size of the group expected to have some influence on detectability. We also discuss HDS integrated with time-removal and double-observer or capture-recapture sampling. These “combined protocols” can be formulated as HDS models with individual covariates, and thus they have a commonality with HDS models involving group structure (group size being just another individual covariate). We cover several varieties of open-population HDS models that accommodate population dynamics. On one end of the spectrum, we cover models that allow replicate distance sampling surveys within a year, which estimate abundance relative to availability and temporary emigration through time. We consider a robust design version of that model. We then consider models with explicit dynamics based on the Dail and Madsen (2011) model and the work of Sollmann et al. (2015). The final major theme of this chapter is relatively newly developed spatial distance sampling models that accommodate explicit models describing the spatial distribution of individuals known as Point Process models. We provide novel formulations of spatial DS and HDS models in this chapter, including implementations of those models in the unmarked package using a hack of the pcount function for N-mixture models.

Towards a theory of cortical columns: From spiking neurons to interacting neural populations of finite size.

PubMed

Schwalger, Tilo; Deger, Moritz; Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-04-01

Neural population equations such as neural mass or field models are widely used to study brain activity on a large scale. However, the relation of these models to the properties of single neurons is unclear. Here we derive an equation for several interacting populations at the mesoscopic scale starting from a microscopic model of randomly connected generalized integrate-and-fire neuron models. Each population consists of 50-2000 neurons of the same type but different populations account for different neuron types. The stochastic population equations that we find reveal how spike-history effects in single-neuron dynamics such as refractoriness and adaptation interact with finite-size fluctuations on the population level. Efficient integration of the stochastic mesoscopic equations reproduces the statistical behavior of the population activities obtained from microscopic simulations of a full spiking neural network model. The theory describes nonlinear emergent dynamics such as finite-size-induced stochastic transitions in multistable networks and synchronization in balanced networks of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. The mesoscopic equations are employed to rapidly integrate a model of a cortical microcircuit consisting of eight neuron types, which allows us to predict spontaneous population activities as well as evoked responses to thalamic input. Our theory establishes a general framework for modeling finite-size neural population dynamics based on single cell and synapse parameters and offers an efficient approach to analyzing cortical circuits and computations.

Demographic and genetic viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal in a fire prone, rapidly urbanizing landscape.

PubMed

Ramalho, Cristina E; Ottewell, Kym M; Chambers, Brian K; Yates, Colin J; Wilson, Barbara A; Bencini, Roberta; Barrett, Geoff

2018-01-01

The rapid and large-scale urbanization of peri-urban areas poses major and complex challenges for wildlife conservation. We used population viability analysis (PVA) to evaluate the influence of urban encroachment, fire, and fauna crossing structures, with and without accounting for inbreeding effects, on the metapopulation viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal, the southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus), in the rapidly expanding city of Perth, Australia. We surveyed two metapopulations over one and a half years, and parameterized the PVA models using largely field-collected data. The models revealed that spatial isolation imposed by housing and road encroachment has major impacts on I. obesulus. Although the species is known to persist in small metapopulations at moderate levels of habitat fragmentation, the models indicate that these populations become highly vulnerable to demographic decline, genetic deterioration, and local extinction under increasing habitat connectivity loss. Isolated metapopulations were also predicted to be highly sensitive to fire, with large-scale fires having greater negative impacts on population abundance than small-scale ones. To reduce the risk of decline and local extirpation of I. obesulus and other small- to medium-sized ground-dwelling mammals in urbanizing, fire prone landscapes, we recommend that remnant vegetation and vegetated, structurally-complex corridors between habitat patches be retained. Well-designed road underpasses can be effective to connect habitat patches and reduce the probability of inbreeding and genetic differentiation; however, adjustment of fire management practices to limit the size of unplanned fires and ensure the retention of long unburnt vegetation will also be required to ensure persistence. Our study supports the evidence that in rapidly urbanizing landscapes, a pro-active conservation approach is required that manages species at the metapopulation level and that prioritizes metapopulations and habitat with greater long-term probability of persistence and conservation capacity, respectively. This strategy may help us prevent future declines and local extirpations, and currently relatively common species from becoming rare.

Demographic and genetic viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal in a fire prone, rapidly urbanizing landscape

PubMed Central

Ottewell, Kym M.; Chambers, Brian K.; Yates, Colin J.; Wilson, Barbara A.; Bencini, Roberta; Barrett, Geoff

2018-01-01

The rapid and large-scale urbanization of peri-urban areas poses major and complex challenges for wildlife conservation. We used population viability analysis (PVA) to evaluate the influence of urban encroachment, fire, and fauna crossing structures, with and without accounting for inbreeding effects, on the metapopulation viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal, the southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus), in the rapidly expanding city of Perth, Australia. We surveyed two metapopulations over one and a half years, and parameterized the PVA models using largely field-collected data. The models revealed that spatial isolation imposed by housing and road encroachment has major impacts on I. obesulus. Although the species is known to persist in small metapopulations at moderate levels of habitat fragmentation, the models indicate that these populations become highly vulnerable to demographic decline, genetic deterioration, and local extinction under increasing habitat connectivity loss. Isolated metapopulations were also predicted to be highly sensitive to fire, with large-scale fires having greater negative impacts on population abundance than small-scale ones. To reduce the risk of decline and local extirpation of I. obesulus and other small- to medium-sized ground-dwelling mammals in urbanizing, fire prone landscapes, we recommend that remnant vegetation and vegetated, structurally-complex corridors between habitat patches be retained. Well-designed road underpasses can be effective to connect habitat patches and reduce the probability of inbreeding and genetic differentiation; however, adjustment of fire management practices to limit the size of unplanned fires and ensure the retention of long unburnt vegetation will also be required to ensure persistence. Our study supports the evidence that in rapidly urbanizing landscapes, a pro-active conservation approach is required that manages species at the metapopulation level and that prioritizes metapopulations and habitat with greater long-term probability of persistence and conservation capacity, respectively. This strategy may help us prevent future declines and local extirpations, and currently relatively common species from becoming rare. PMID:29444118

Population-Area Relationship for Medieval European Cities

PubMed Central

Lobo, José; Bettencourt, Luís M. A.; Ortman, Scott G.; Smith, Michael E.

2016-01-01

Medieval European urbanization presents a line of continuity between earlier cities and modern European urban systems. Yet, many of the spatial, political and economic features of medieval European cities were particular to the Middle Ages, and subsequently changed over the Early Modern Period and Industrial Revolution. There is a long tradition of demographic studies estimating the population sizes of medieval European cities, and comparative analyses of these data have shed much light on the long-term evolution of urban systems. However, the next step—to systematically relate the population size of these cities to their spatial and socioeconomic characteristics—has seldom been taken. This raises a series of interesting questions, as both modern and ancient cities have been observed to obey area-population relationships predicted by settlement scaling theory. To address these questions, we analyze a new dataset for the settled area and population of 173 European cities from the early fourteenth century to determine the relationship between population and settled area. To interpret this data, we develop two related models that lead to differing predictions regarding the quantitative form of the population-area relationship, depending on the level of social mixing present in these cities. Our empirical estimates of model parameters show a strong densification of cities with city population size, consistent with patterns in contemporary cities. Although social life in medieval Europe was orchestrated by hierarchical institutions (e.g., guilds, church, municipal organizations), our results show no statistically significant influence of these institutions on agglomeration effects. The similarities between the empirical patterns of settlement relating area to population observed here support the hypothesis that cities throughout history share common principles of organization that self-consistently relate their socioeconomic networks to structured urban spaces. PMID:27706192

Population-Area Relationship for Medieval European Cities.

PubMed

Cesaretti, Rudolf; Lobo, José; Bettencourt, Luís M A; Ortman, Scott G; Smith, Michael E

2016-01-01

Medieval European urbanization presents a line of continuity between earlier cities and modern European urban systems. Yet, many of the spatial, political and economic features of medieval European cities were particular to the Middle Ages, and subsequently changed over the Early Modern Period and Industrial Revolution. There is a long tradition of demographic studies estimating the population sizes of medieval European cities, and comparative analyses of these data have shed much light on the long-term evolution of urban systems. However, the next step-to systematically relate the population size of these cities to their spatial and socioeconomic characteristics-has seldom been taken. This raises a series of interesting questions, as both modern and ancient cities have been observed to obey area-population relationships predicted by settlement scaling theory. To address these questions, we analyze a new dataset for the settled area and population of 173 European cities from the early fourteenth century to determine the relationship between population and settled area. To interpret this data, we develop two related models that lead to differing predictions regarding the quantitative form of the population-area relationship, depending on the level of social mixing present in these cities. Our empirical estimates of model parameters show a strong densification of cities with city population size, consistent with patterns in contemporary cities. Although social life in medieval Europe was orchestrated by hierarchical institutions (e.g., guilds, church, municipal organizations), our results show no statistically significant influence of these institutions on agglomeration effects. The similarities between the empirical patterns of settlement relating area to population observed here support the hypothesis that cities throughout history share common principles of organization that self-consistently relate their socioeconomic networks to structured urban spaces.

Integrating citizen-science data with movement models to estimate the size of a migratory golden eagle population

Treesearch

Andrew J. Dennhardt; Adam E. Duerr; David Brandes; Todd E. Katzner

2015-01-01

Estimating population size is fundamental to conservation and management. Population size is typically estimated using survey data, computer models, or both. Some of the most extensive and often least expensive survey data are those collected by citizen-scientists. A challenge to citizen-scientists is that the vagility of many organisms can complicate data collection....

Yellow-bellied marmots: insights from an emergent view of sociality.

PubMed

Blumstein, Daniel T

2013-05-19

Ecological factors explain variation in sociality both within and between species of marmots-large alpine ground squirrels. Fifty years of study, by me and my colleagues, of the yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, near Crested Butte, CO, USA, has created opportunities to see how sociality changes with population and group size. Over the past decades, we have witnessed a natural experiment whereby the population tripled in size. If we view sociality as an emergent process, then demography acts as a constraint on interactions between individuals, and the threefold increase in population size should have consequences for group structure. We have used social network statistics to study the causes and consequences of social interactions by capitalizing on this demographic variation. Such an emergent view is ideally studied in an integrative Tinbergian way that focuses on both mechanism and function. We have determined that some social attributes are heritable, that social cohesion is established through age and kin structure, that well-embedded females (but not males) are less likely to disperse, and that there are fitness consequences of social attributes. Together, this integrative relationship-centred view expands on the traditional ecological model of sociality and offers a framework that can be applied to other systems.

Yellow-bellied marmots: insights from an emergent view of sociality

PubMed Central

Blumstein, Daniel T.

2013-01-01

Ecological factors explain variation in sociality both within and between species of marmots—large alpine ground squirrels. Fifty years of study, by me and my colleagues, of the yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, near Crested Butte, CO, USA, has created opportunities to see how sociality changes with population and group size. Over the past decades, we have witnessed a natural experiment whereby the population tripled in size. If we view sociality as an emergent process, then demography acts as a constraint on interactions between individuals, and the threefold increase in population size should have consequences for group structure. We have used social network statistics to study the causes and consequences of social interactions by capitalizing on this demographic variation. Such an emergent view is ideally studied in an integrative Tinbergian way that focuses on both mechanism and function. We have determined that some social attributes are heritable, that social cohesion is established through age and kin structure, that well-embedded females (but not males) are less likely to disperse, and that there are fitness consequences of social attributes. Together, this integrative relationship-centred view expands on the traditional ecological model of sociality and offers a framework that can be applied to other systems. PMID:23569297

Lineage-tracking of stem cell differentiation: a neutral model of hematopoiesis in rhesus macaque

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Tom

How a potentially diverse population of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) differentiates and proliferates to supply more than 1011 mature blood cells every day in humans remains a key biological question. We investigated this process by quantitatively analyzing the clonal structure of peripheral blood that is generated by a population of transplanted lentivirus-marked HSCs in myeloablated rhesus macaques. Each transplanted HSC generates a clonal lineage of cells in the peripheral blood that is then detected and quantified through deep sequencing of the viral vector integration sites (VIS) common within each lineage. This approach allowed us to observe, over a period of 4-12 years, hundreds of distinct clonal lineages. Surprisingly, while the distinct clone sizes varied by three orders of magnitude, we found that collectively, they form a steady-state clone size-distribution with a distinctive shape. Our concise model shows that slow HSC differentiation followed by fast progenitor growth is responsible for the observed broad clone size-distribution. Although all cells are assumed to be statistically identical, analogous to a neutral theory for the different clone lineages, our mathematical approach captures the intrinsic variability in the times to HSC differentiation after transplantation. Steady-state solutions of our model show that the predicted clone size-distribution is sensitive to only two combinations of parameters. By fitting the measured clone size-distributions to our mechanistic model, we estimate both the effective HSC differentiation rate and the number of active HSCs. NSF and NIH.

Analysis of an age structured model for tick populations subject to seasonal effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Kaihui; Lou, Yijun; Wu, Jianhong

2017-08-01

We investigate an age-structured hyperbolic equation model by allowing the birth and death functions to be density dependent and periodic in time with the consideration of seasonal effects. By studying the integral form solution of this general hyperbolic equation obtained through the method of integration along characteristics, we give a detailed proof of the uniqueness and existence of the solution in light of the contraction mapping theorem. With additional biologically natural assumptions, using the tick population growth as a motivating example, we derive an age-structured model with time-dependent periodic maturation delays, which is quite different from the existing population models with time-independent maturation delays. For this periodic differential system with seasonal delays, the basic reproduction number R0 is defined as the spectral radius of the next generation operator. Then, we show the tick population tends to die out when R0 < 1 while remains persistent if R0 > 1. When there is no intra-specific competition among immature individuals due to the sufficient availability of immature tick hosts, the global stability of the positive periodic state for the whole model system of four delay differential equations can be obtained with the observation that a scalar subsystem for the adult stage size can be decoupled. The challenge for the proof of such a global stability result can be overcome by introducing a new phase space, based on which, a periodic solution semiflow can be defined which is eventually strongly monotone and strictly subhomogeneous.

Exploring Demographic, Physical, and Historical Explanations for the Genetic Structure of Two Lineages of Greater Antillean Bats

PubMed Central

Muscarella, Robert A.; Murray, Kevin L.; Ortt, Derek; Russell, Amy L.; Fleming, Theodore H.

2011-01-01

Observed patterns of genetic structure result from the interactions of demographic, physical, and historical influences on gene flow. The particular strength of various factors in governing gene flow, however, may differ between species in biologically relevant ways. We investigated the role of demographic factors (population size and sex-biased dispersal) and physical features (geographic distance, island size and climatological winds) on patterns of genetic structure and gene flow for two lineages of Greater Antillean bats. We used microsatellite genetic data to estimate demographic characteristics, infer population genetic structure, and estimate gene flow among island populations of Erophylla sezekorni/E. bombifrons and Macrotus waterhousii (Chiroptera: Phyllostomidae). Using a landscape genetics approach, we asked if geographic distance, island size, or climatological winds mediate historical gene flow in this system. Samples from 13 islands spanning Erophylla's range clustered into five genetically distinct populations. Samples of M. waterhousii from eight islands represented eight genetically distinct populations. While we found evidence that a majority of historical gene flow between genetic populations was asymmetric for both lineages, we were not able to entirely rule out incomplete lineage sorting in generating this pattern. We found no evidence of contemporary gene flow except between two genetic populations of Erophylla. Both lineages exhibited significant isolation by geographic distance. Patterns of genetic structure and gene flow, however, were not explained by differences in relative effective population sizes, island area, sex-biased dispersal (tested only for Erophylla), or surface-level climatological winds. Gene flow among islands appears to be highly restricted, particularly for M. waterhousii, and we suggest that this species deserves increased taxonomic attention and conservation concern. PMID:21445291

Genetic consequences of polygyny and social structure in an Indian fruit bat, Cynopterus sphinx. II. Variance in male mating success and effective population size.

PubMed

Storz, J F; Bhat, H R; Kunz, T H

2001-06-01

Variance in reproductive success is a primary determinant of genetically effective population size (Ne), and thus has important implications for the role of genetic drift in the evolutionary dynamics of animal taxa characterized by polygynous mating systems. Here we report the results of a study designed to test the hypothesis that polygynous mating results in significantly reduced Ne in an age-structured population. This hypothesis was tested in a natural population of a harem-forming fruit bat, Cynopterus sphinx (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae), in western India. The influence of the mating system on the ratio of variance Ne to adult census number (N) was assessed using a mathematical model designed for age-structured populations that incorporated demographic and genetic data. Male mating success was assessed by means of direct and indirect paternity analysis using 10-locus microsatellite genotypes of adults and progeny from two consecutive breeding periods (n = 431 individually marked bats). Combined results from both analyses were used to infer the effective number of male parents in each breeding period. The relative proportion of successfully reproducing males and the size distribution of paternal sibships comprising each offspring cohort revealed an extremely high within-season variance in male mating success (up to 9.2 times higher than Poisson expectation). The resultant estimate of Ne/N for the C. sphinx study population was 0.42. As a result of polygynous mating, the predicted rate of drift (1/2Ne per generation) was 17.6% higher than expected from a Poisson distribution of male mating success. However, the estimated Ne/N was well within the 0.25-0.75 range expected for age-structured populations under normal demographic conditions. The life-history schedule of C. sphinx is characterized by a disproportionately short sexual maturation period scaled to adult life span. Consequently, the influence of polygynous mating on Ne/N is mitigated by the extensive overlap of generations. In C. sphinx, turnover of breeding males between seasons ensures a broader sampling of the adult male gamete pool than expected from the variance in mating success within a single breeding period.

The Impact of Accelerating Faster than Exponential Population Growth on Genetic Variation

PubMed Central

Reppell, Mark; Boehnke, Michael; Zöllner, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Current human sequencing projects observe an abundance of extremely rare genetic variation, suggesting recent acceleration of population growth. To better understand the impact of such accelerating growth on the quantity and nature of genetic variation, we present a new class of models capable of incorporating faster than exponential growth in a coalescent framework. Our work shows that such accelerated growth affects only the population size in the recent past and thus large samples are required to detect the models’ effects on patterns of variation. When we compare models with fixed initial growth rate, models with accelerating growth achieve very large current population sizes and large samples from these populations contain more variation than samples from populations with constant growth. This increase is driven almost entirely by an increase in singleton variation. Moreover, linkage disequilibrium decays faster in populations with accelerating growth. When we instead condition on current population size, models with accelerating growth result in less overall variation and slower linkage disequilibrium decay compared to models with exponential growth. We also find that pairwise linkage disequilibrium of very rare variants contains information about growth rates in the recent past. Finally, we demonstrate that models of accelerating growth may substantially change estimates of present-day effective population sizes and growth times. PMID:24381333

Recalibrating disease parameters for increasing realism in modeling epidemics in closed settings.

PubMed

Bioglio, Livio; Génois, Mathieu; Vestergaard, Christian L; Poletto, Chiara; Barrat, Alain; Colizza, Vittoria

2016-11-14

The homogeneous mixing assumption is widely adopted in epidemic modelling for its parsimony and represents the building block of more complex approaches, including very detailed agent-based models. The latter assume homogeneous mixing within schools, workplaces and households, mostly for the lack of detailed information on human contact behaviour within these settings. The recent data availability on high-resolution face-to-face interactions makes it now possible to assess the goodness of this simplified scheme in reproducing relevant aspects of the infection dynamics. We consider empirical contact networks gathered in different contexts, as well as synthetic data obtained through realistic models of contacts in structured populations. We perform stochastic spreading simulations on these contact networks and in populations of the same size under a homogeneous mixing hypothesis. We adjust the epidemiological parameters of the latter in order to fit the prevalence curve of the contact epidemic model. We quantify the agreement by comparing epidemic peak times, peak values, and epidemic sizes. Good approximations of the peak times and peak values are obtained with the homogeneous mixing approach, with a median relative difference smaller than 20 % in all cases investigated. Accuracy in reproducing the peak time depends on the setting under study, while for the peak value it is independent of the setting. Recalibration is found to be linear in the epidemic parameters used in the contact data simulations, showing changes across empirical settings but robustness across groups and population sizes. An adequate rescaling of the epidemiological parameters can yield a good agreement between the epidemic curves obtained with a real contact network and a homogeneous mixing approach in a population of the same size. The use of such recalibrated homogeneous mixing approximations would enhance the accuracy and realism of agent-based simulations and limit the intrinsic biases of the homogeneous mixing.

Spatial capture-recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Graves, Tabitha A.

2013-01-01

Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on “ecological distance,” i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture–recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture–recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

Spatial capture--recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity.

PubMed

Royle, J Andrew; Chandler, Richard B; Gazenski, Kimberly D; Graves, Tabitha A

2013-02-01

Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture--recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on "ecological distance," i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture-recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture-recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

A modified Wright-Fisher model that incorporates Ne: A variant of the standard model with increased biological realism and reduced computational complexity.

PubMed

Zhao, Lei; Gossmann, Toni I; Waxman, David

2016-03-21

The Wright-Fisher model is an important model in evolutionary biology and population genetics. It has been applied in numerous analyses of finite populations with discrete generations. It is recognised that real populations can behave, in some key aspects, as though their size that is not the census size, N, but rather a smaller size, namely the effective population size, Ne. However, in the Wright-Fisher model, there is no distinction between the effective and census population sizes. Equivalently, we can say that in this model, Ne coincides with N. The Wright-Fisher model therefore lacks an important aspect of biological realism. Here, we present a method that allows Ne to be directly incorporated into the Wright-Fisher model. The modified model involves matrices whose size is determined by Ne. Thus apart from increased biological realism, the modified model also has reduced computational complexity, particularly so when Ne⪡N. For complex problems, it may be hard or impossible to numerically analyse the most commonly-used approximation of the Wright-Fisher model that incorporates Ne, namely the diffusion approximation. An alternative approach is simulation. However, the simulations need to be sufficiently detailed that they yield an effective size that is different to the census size. Simulations may also be time consuming and have attendant statistical errors. The method presented in this work may then be the only alternative to simulations, when Ne differs from N. We illustrate the straightforward application of the method to some problems involving allele fixation and the determination of the equilibrium site frequency spectrum. We then apply the method to the problem of fixation when three alleles are segregating in a population. This latter problem is significantly more complex than a two allele problem and since the diffusion equation cannot be numerically solved, the only other way Ne can be incorporated into the analysis is by simulation. We have achieved good accuracy in all cases considered. In summary, the present work extends the realism and tractability of an important model of evolutionary biology and population genetics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the absence of a correlation between population size and 'toolkit size' in ethnographic hunter-gatherers.

PubMed

Aoki, Kenichi

2018-04-05

In apparent contradiction to the theoretically predicted effect of population size on the quality/quantity of material culture, statistical analyses on ethnographic hunter-gatherers have shown an absence of correlation between population size and toolkit size. This has sparked a heated, if sometimes tangential, debate as to the usefulness of the theoretical models and as to what modes of cultural transmission humans are capable of and hunter-gatherers rely on. I review the directly relevant theoretical literature and argue that much of the confusion is caused by a mismatch between the theoretical variable and the empirical observable. I then confirm that a model incorporating the appropriate variable does predict a positive association between population size and toolkit size for random oblique, vertical, best-of- K , conformist, anticonformist, success bias and one-to-many cultural transmission, with the caveat that for all populations sampled, the population size has remained constant and toolkit size has reached the equilibrium for this population size. Finally, I suggest three theoretical scenarios, two of them involving variable population size, that would attenuate or eliminate this association and hence help to explain the empirical absence of correlation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Interacting epidemics and coinfection on contact networks.

PubMed

Newman, M E J; Ferrario, Carrie R

2013-01-01

The spread of certain diseases can be promoted, in some cases substantially, by prior infection with another disease. One example is that of HIV, whose immunosuppressant effects significantly increase the chances of infection with other pathogens. Such coinfection processes, when combined with nontrivial structure in the contact networks over which diseases spread, can lead to complex patterns of epidemiological behavior. Here we consider a mathematical model of two diseases spreading through a single population, where infection with one disease is dependent on prior infection with the other. We solve exactly for the sizes of the outbreaks of both diseases in the limit of large population size, along with the complete phase diagram of the system. Among other things, we use our model to demonstrate how diseases can be controlled not only by reducing the rate of their spread, but also by reducing the spread of other infections upon which they depend.

Temporal analysis of genetic structure to assess population dynamics of reintroduced swift foxes.

PubMed

Cullingham, Catherine I; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2013-12-01

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long-term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small-population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Population Fluctuation Promotes Cooperation in Networks

PubMed Central

Miller, Steve; Knowles, Joshua

2015-01-01

We consider the problem of explaining the emergence and evolution of cooperation in dynamic network-structured populations. Building on seminal work by Poncela et al., which shows how cooperation (in one-shot prisoner’s dilemma) is supported in growing populations by an evolutionary preferential attachment (EPA) model, we investigate the effect of fluctuations in the population size. We find that a fluctuating model – based on repeated population growth and truncation – is more robust than Poncela et al.’s in that cooperation flourishes for a wider variety of initial conditions. In terms of both the temptation to defect, and the types of strategies present in the founder network, the fluctuating population is found to lead more securely to cooperation. Further, we find that this model will also support the emergence of cooperation from pre-existing non-cooperative random networks. This model, like Poncela et al.’s, does not require agents to have memory, recognition of other agents, or other cognitive abilities, and so may suggest a more general explanation of the emergence of cooperation in early evolutionary transitions, than mechanisms such as kin selection, direct and indirect reciprocity. PMID:26061705

Modeling Cell Size Regulation: From Single-Cell-Level Statistics to Molecular Mechanisms and Population-Level Effects.

PubMed

Ho, Po-Yi; Lin, Jie; Amir, Ariel

2018-05-20

Most microorganisms regulate their cell size. In this article, we review some of the mathematical formulations of the problem of cell size regulation. We focus on coarse-grained stochastic models and the statistics that they generate. We review the biologically relevant insights obtained from these models. We then describe cell cycle regulation and its molecular implementations, protein number regulation, and population growth, all in relation to size regulation. Finally, we discuss several future directions for developing understanding beyond phenomenological models of cell size regulation.

Pareto genealogies arising from a Poisson branching evolution model with selection.

PubMed

Huillet, Thierry E

2014-02-01

We study a class of coalescents derived from a sampling procedure out of N i.i.d. Pareto(α) random variables, normalized by their sum, including β-size-biasing on total length effects (β < α). Depending on the range of α we derive the large N limit coalescents structure, leading either to a discrete-time Poisson-Dirichlet (α, -β) Ξ-coalescent (α ε[0, 1)), or to a family of continuous-time Beta (2 - α, α - β)Λ-coalescents (α ε[1, 2)), or to the Kingman coalescent (α ≥ 2). We indicate that this class of coalescent processes (and their scaling limits) may be viewed as the genealogical processes of some forward in time evolving branching population models including selection effects. In such constant-size population models, the reproduction step, which is based on a fitness-dependent Poisson Point Process with scaling power-law(α) intensity, is coupled to a selection step consisting of sorting out the N fittest individuals issued from the reproduction step.

Phylogeography on the rocks: The contribution of current and historical factors in shaping the genetic structure of Chthamalus montagui (Crustacea, Cirripedia).

PubMed

Pannacciulli, Federica G; Maltagliati, Ferruccio; de Guttry, Christian; Achituv, Yair

2017-01-01

The model marine broadcast-spawner barnacle Chthamalus montagui was investigated to understand its genetic structure and quantify levels of population divergence, and to make inference on historical demography in terms of time of divergence and changes in population size. We collected specimens from rocky shores of the north-east Atlantic Ocean (4 locations), Mediterranean Sea (8) and Black Sea (1). The 312 sequences 537 bp) of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I allowed to detect 130 haplotypes. High within-location genetic variability was recorded, with haplotype diversity ranging between h = 0.750 and 0.967. Parameters of genetic divergence, haplotype network and Bayesian assignment analysis were consistent in rejecting the hypothesis of panmixia. C. montagui is genetically structured in three geographically discrete populations, which corresponded to north-eastern Atlantic Ocean, western-central Mediterranean Sea, and Aegean Sea-Black Sea. These populations are separated by two main effective barriers to gene flow located at the Almeria-Oran Front and in correspondence of the Cyclades Islands. According to the 'isolation with migration' model, adjacent population pairs diverged during the early to middle Pleistocene transition, a period in which geological events provoked significant changes in the structure and composition of palaeocommunities. Mismatch distributions, neutrality tests and Bayesian skyline plots showed past population expansions, which started approximately in the Mindel-Riss interglacial, in which ecological conditions were favourable for temperate species and calcium-uptaking marine organisms.

Phylogeography on the rocks: The contribution of current and historical factors in shaping the genetic structure of Chthamalus montagui (Crustacea, Cirripedia)

PubMed Central

Pannacciulli, Federica G.; de Guttry, Christian; Achituv, Yair

2017-01-01

The model marine broadcast-spawner barnacle Chthamalus montagui was investigated to understand its genetic structure and quantify levels of population divergence, and to make inference on historical demography in terms of time of divergence and changes in population size. We collected specimens from rocky shores of the north-east Atlantic Ocean (4 locations), Mediterranean Sea (8) and Black Sea (1). The 312 sequences 537 bp) of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I allowed to detect 130 haplotypes. High within-location genetic variability was recorded, with haplotype diversity ranging between h = 0.750 and 0.967. Parameters of genetic divergence, haplotype network and Bayesian assignment analysis were consistent in rejecting the hypothesis of panmixia. C. montagui is genetically structured in three geographically discrete populations, which corresponded to north-eastern Atlantic Ocean, western-central Mediterranean Sea, and Aegean Sea-Black Sea. These populations are separated by two main effective barriers to gene flow located at the Almeria-Oran Front and in correspondence of the Cyclades Islands. According to the ‘isolation with migration’ model, adjacent population pairs diverged during the early to middle Pleistocene transition, a period in which geological events provoked significant changes in the structure and composition of palaeocommunities. Mismatch distributions, neutrality tests and Bayesian skyline plots showed past population expansions, which started approximately in the Mindel-Riss interglacial, in which ecological conditions were favourable for temperate species and calcium-uptaking marine organisms. PMID:28594840

Galactic dual population models of gamma-ray bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Higdon, J. C.; Lingenfelter, R. E.

1994-01-01

We investigate in more detail the properties of two-population models for gamma-ray bursts in the galactic disk and halo. We calculate the gamma-ray burst statistical properties, mean value of (V/V(sub max)), mean value of cos Theta, and mean value of (sin(exp 2) b), as functions of the detection flux threshold for bursts coming from both Galactic disk and massive halo populations. We consider halo models inferred from the observational constraints on the large-scale Galactic structure and we compare the expected values of mean value of (V/V(sub max)), mean value of cos Theta, and mean value of (sin(exp 2) b), with those measured by Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) and other detectors. We find that the measured values are consistent with solely Galactic populations having a range of halo distributions, mixed with local disk distributions, which can account for as much as approximately 25% of the observed BATSE bursts. M31 does not contribute to these modeled bursts. We also demonstrate, contrary to recent arguments, that the size-frequency distributions of dual population models are quite consistent with the BATSE observations.

Extinction dynamics of a discrete population in an oasis.

PubMed

Berti, Stefano; Cencini, Massimo; Vergni, Davide; Vulpiani, Angelo

2015-07-01

Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 1950s with the Kierstead, Slobodkin, and Skellam (KiSS) model, namely a continuous reaction-diffusion equation for a population growing on a patch of finite size L surrounded by a deadly environment with infinite mortality, i.e., an oasis in a desert. The main outcome of the model is that only patches above a critical size allow for population persistence. Here we introduce an individual-based analog of the KiSS model to investigate the effects of discreteness and demographic stochasticity. In particular, we study the average time to extinction both above and below the critical patch size of the continuous model and investigate the quasistationary distribution of the number of individuals for patch sizes above the critical threshold.

Demographic threats to the sustainability of Brazil nut exploitation.

PubMed

Peres, Carlos A; Baider, Claudia; Zuidema, Pieter A; Wadt, Lúcia H O; Kainer, Karen A; Gomes-Silva, Daisy A P; Salomão, Rafael P; Simões, Luciana L; Franciosi, Eduardo R N; Cornejo Valverde, Fernando; Gribel, Rogério; Shepard, Glenn H; Kanashiro, Milton; Coventry, Peter; Yu, Douglas W; Watkinson, Andrew R; Freckleton, Robert P

2003-12-19

A comparative analysis of 23 populations of the Brazil nut tree (Bertholletia excelsa) across the Brazilian, Peruvian, and Bolivian Amazon shows that the history and intensity of Brazil nut exploitation are major determinants of population size structure. Populations subjected to persistent levels of harvest lack juvenile trees less than 60 centimeters in diameter at breast height; only populations with a history of either light or recent exploitation contain large numbers of juvenile trees. A harvesting model confirms that intensive exploitation levels over the past century are such that juvenile recruitment is insufficient to maintain populations over the long term. Without management, intensively harvested populations will succumb to a process of senescence and demographic collapse, threatening this cornerstone of the Amazonian extractive economy.

Seeding the initial population with feasible solutions in metaheuristic optimization of steel trusses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazemzadeh Azad, Saeid

2018-01-01

In spite of considerable research work on the development of efficient algorithms for discrete sizing optimization of steel truss structures, only a few studies have addressed non-algorithmic issues affecting the general performance of algorithms. For instance, an important question is whether starting the design optimization from a feasible solution is fruitful or not. This study is an attempt to investigate the effect of seeding the initial population with feasible solutions on the general performance of metaheuristic techniques. To this end, the sensitivity of recently proposed metaheuristic algorithms to the feasibility of initial candidate designs is evaluated through practical discrete sizing of real-size steel truss structures. The numerical experiments indicate that seeding the initial population with feasible solutions can improve the computational efficiency of metaheuristic structural optimization algorithms, especially in the early stages of the optimization. This paves the way for efficient metaheuristic optimization of large-scale structural systems.

Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects

PubMed Central

Baumann, Hendrik; Sandmann, Werner

2016-01-01

Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity. PMID:27010993

Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

PubMed

Baumann, Hendrik; Sandmann, Werner

2016-01-01

Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

The leverage of demographic dynamics on carbon dioxide emissions: does age structure matter?

PubMed

Zagheni, Emilio

2011-02-01

This article provides a methodological contribution to the study of the effect of changes in population age structure on carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions. First, I propose a generalization of the IPAT equation to a multisector economy with an age-structured population and discuss the insights that can be obtained in the context of stable population theory. Second, I suggest a statistical model of household consumption as a function of household size and age structure to quantitatively evaluate the extent of economies of scale in consumption of energy-intensive goods, and to estimate age-specific profiles of consumption of energy-intensive goods and of CO(2) emissions. Third, I offer an illustration of the methodologies using data for the United States. The analysis shows that per-capita CO(2) emissions increase with age until the individual is in his or her 60s, and then emissions tend to decrease. Holding everything else constant, the expected change in U.S. population age distribution during the next four decades is likely to have a small, but noticeable, positive impact on CO(2) emissions.

Size- and food-dependent growth drives patterns of competitive dominance along productivity gradients.

PubMed

Huss, Magnus; Gårdmark, Anna; Van Leeuwen, Anieke; de Roos, André M

2012-04-01

Patterns of coexistence among competing species exhibiting size- and food-dependent growth remain largely unexplored. Here we studied mechanisms behind coexistence and shifts in competitive dominance in a size-structured fish guild, representing sprat and herring stocks in the Baltic Sea, using a physiologically structured model of competing populations. The influence of degree of resource overlap and the possibility of undergoing ontogenetic diet shifts were studied as functions of zooplankton and zoobenthos productivity. By imposing different size-dependent mortalities, we could study the outcome of competition under contrasting environmental regimes representing poor and favorable growth conditions. We found that the identity of the dominant species shifted between low and high productivity. Adding a herring-exclusive benthos resource only provided a competitive advantage over sprat when size-dependent mortality was high enough to allow for rapid growth in the zooplankton niche. Hence, the importance of a bottom-up effect of varying productivity was dependent on a strong top-down effect. Although herring could depress shared resources to lower levels than could sprat and also could access an exclusive resource, the smaller size at maturation of sprat allowed it to coexist with herring and, in some cases, exclude it. Our model system, characterized by interactions among size cohorts, allowed for consumer coexistence even at full resource overlap at intermediate productivities when size-dependent mortality was low. Observed shifts in community patterns were crucially dependent on the explicit consideration of size- and food-dependent growth. Accordingly, we argue that accounting for food-dependent growth and size-dependent interactions is necessary to better predict changes in community structure and dynamics following changes in major ecosystem drivers such as resource productivity and mortality, which are fundamental for our ability to manage exploitation of living resources in, e.g., fisheries.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

PubMed

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Population-level preferences for primary care physicians' characteristics in Japan: a structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Takahashi, Osamu; Ohde, Sachiko; Jacobs, Joshua L; Tokuda, Yasuharu; Yanai, Haruo; Okubo, Tomoya; Shimbo, Takuro; Fukuhara, Shunichi; Hinohara, Shigeaki; Fukui, Tsuguya

2010-01-01

Primary care has potential to play a role for improving the patient care in Japanese health care system; however, little information is available about how patients perceive the roles of primary care physicians (PCPs) within the Japanese health care system. We aimed to assess population-level preferences for PCPs and investigated the extent to which preferences vary in relation to different population groups in Japan. Data were extracted from a cross-sectional questionnaire survey in October 2003. An 18-item questionnaire was used to measure the preferences for PCPs. Exploratory factor analysis was performed to identify latent factors, while confirmatory factor analysis was used to evaluate the fit of the structure using structural equation modeling (SEM). Nationally representative sample of the adult Japanese general population was chosen by controlling for age, sex, and the size of cities. A total of 2,453 adults>or=18-years-old were analyzed. SEM provided a 4-factor structural model of the population-level preference for PCPs, such as clinical competence (path coefficient (pc)=0.72), gate-keeping (pc=0.64), communication with patients or specialists (pc=0.49) and high education (pc=0.25) and demonstrated the best goodness-of-fit. Those who were middle aged, have a high family income, and a high level of education, placed more importance on gate-keeping characteristics, and the rural residents emphasized communication rather than clinical competence. Our results indicate that the preferences for PCPs are divided into four main factors and underscore the variation among preferences according to different population groups, such as age, socioeconomic and educational status, and places of living. These variations should be considered to improve the primary care system in Japan.

Evolution of acuteness in pathogen metapopulations: conflicts between “classical” and invasion-persistence trade-offs

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Sourya; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; King, Aaron A.

2014-01-01

Classical life-history theory predicts that acute, immunizing pathogens should maximize between-host transmission. When such pathogens induce violent epidemic outbreaks, however, a pathogen’s short-term advantage at invasion may come at the expense of its ability to persist in the population over the long term. Here, we seek to understand how the classical and invasion-persistence trade-offs interact to shape pathogen life-history evolution as a function of the size and structure of the host population. We develop an individual-based infection model at three distinct levels of organization: within an individual host, among hosts within a local population, and among local populations within a metapopulation. We find a continuum of evolutionarily stable pathogen strategies. At one end of the spectrum—in large well-mixed populations—pathogens evolve to greater acuteness to maximize between-host transmission: the classical trade-off theory applies in this regime. At the other end of the spectrum—when the host population is broken into many small patches—selection favors less acute pathogens, which persist longer within a patch and thereby achieve enhanced between-patch transmission: the invasion-persistence tradeoff dominates in this regime. Between these extremes, we explore the effects of the size and structure of the host population in determining pathogen strategy. In general, pathogen strategies respond to evolutionary pressures arising at both scales. PMID:25214895

Ecological correlates of group-size variation in a resource-defense ungulate, the sedentary guanaco.

PubMed

Marino, Andrea; Baldi, Ricardo

2014-01-01

For large herbivores, predation-risk, habitat structure and population density are often reported as major determinants of group size variation within and between species. However, whether the underlying causes of these relationships imply an ecological adaptation or are the result of a purely mechanistic process in which fusion and fragmentation events only depend on the rate of group meeting, is still under debate. The aim of this study was to model guanaco family and bachelor group sizes in contrasting ecological settings in order to test hypotheses regarding the adaptive significance of group-size variation. We surveyed guanaco group sizes within three wildlife reserves located in eastern Patagonia where guanacos occupy a mosaic of grasslands and shrublands. Two of these reserves have been free from predators for decades while in the third, pumas often prey on guanacos. All locations have experienced important changes in guanaco abundance throughout the study offering the opportunity to test for density effects. We found that bachelor group size increased with increasing density, as expected by the mechanistic approach, but was independent of habitat structure or predation risk. In contrast, the smaller and territorial family groups were larger in the predator-exposed than in the predator-free locations, and were larger in open grasslands than in shrublands. However, the influence of population density on these social units was very weak. Therefore, family group data supported the adaptive significance of group-size variation but did not support the mechanistic idea. Yet, the magnitude of the effects was small and between-population variation in family group size after controlling for habitat and predation was negligible, suggesting that plasticity of these social units is considerably low. Our results showed that different social units might respond differentially to local ecological conditions, supporting two contrasting hypotheses in a single species, and highlight the importance of taking into account the proximate interests and constraints to which group members may be exposed to when deriving predictions about group-size variation.

Response of a tropical tree to non-timber forest products harvest and reduction in habitat size

PubMed Central

Kouagou, M’Mouyohoun; Natta, Armand K.; Gado, Choukouratou

2017-01-01

Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) are widely harvested by local people for their livelihood. Harvest often takes place in human disturbed ecosystems. However, our understanding of NTFPs harvesting impacts in fragmented habitats is limited. We assessed the impacts of fruit harvest, and reduction in habitat size on the population structures of Pentadesma butyracea Sabine (Clusiaceae) across two contrasting ecological regions (dry vs. moist) in Benin. In each region, we selected three populations for each of the three fruit harvesting intensities (low, medium and high). Harvesting intensities were estimated as the proportion of fruits harvested per population. Pentadesma butyracea is found in gallery forests along rivers and streams. We used the width of gallery forests as a measure of habitat size. We found negative effects of fruit harvest on seedling and adult density but no significant effect on population size class distribution in both ecological regions. The lack of significant effect of fruit harvest on population structure may be explained by the ability of P. butyracea to compensate for the negative effect of fruit harvesting by increasing clonal reproduction. Our results suggest that using tree density and population structure to assess the ecological impacts of harvesting clonal plants should be done with caution. PMID:28850624

Response of a tropical tree to non-timber forest products harvest and reduction in habitat size.

PubMed

Gaoue, Orou G; Kouagou, M'Mouyohoun; Natta, Armand K; Gado, Choukouratou

2017-01-01

Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) are widely harvested by local people for their livelihood. Harvest often takes place in human disturbed ecosystems. However, our understanding of NTFPs harvesting impacts in fragmented habitats is limited. We assessed the impacts of fruit harvest, and reduction in habitat size on the population structures of Pentadesma butyracea Sabine (Clusiaceae) across two contrasting ecological regions (dry vs. moist) in Benin. In each region, we selected three populations for each of the three fruit harvesting intensities (low, medium and high). Harvesting intensities were estimated as the proportion of fruits harvested per population. Pentadesma butyracea is found in gallery forests along rivers and streams. We used the width of gallery forests as a measure of habitat size. We found negative effects of fruit harvest on seedling and adult density but no significant effect on population size class distribution in both ecological regions. The lack of significant effect of fruit harvest on population structure may be explained by the ability of P. butyracea to compensate for the negative effect of fruit harvesting by increasing clonal reproduction. Our results suggest that using tree density and population structure to assess the ecological impacts of harvesting clonal plants should be done with caution.

Towards a theory of cortical columns: From spiking neurons to interacting neural populations of finite size

PubMed Central

Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-01-01

Neural population equations such as neural mass or field models are widely used to study brain activity on a large scale. However, the relation of these models to the properties of single neurons is unclear. Here we derive an equation for several interacting populations at the mesoscopic scale starting from a microscopic model of randomly connected generalized integrate-and-fire neuron models. Each population consists of 50–2000 neurons of the same type but different populations account for different neuron types. The stochastic population equations that we find reveal how spike-history effects in single-neuron dynamics such as refractoriness and adaptation interact with finite-size fluctuations on the population level. Efficient integration of the stochastic mesoscopic equations reproduces the statistical behavior of the population activities obtained from microscopic simulations of a full spiking neural network model. The theory describes nonlinear emergent dynamics such as finite-size-induced stochastic transitions in multistable networks and synchronization in balanced networks of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. The mesoscopic equations are employed to rapidly integrate a model of a cortical microcircuit consisting of eight neuron types, which allows us to predict spontaneous population activities as well as evoked responses to thalamic input. Our theory establishes a general framework for modeling finite-size neural population dynamics based on single cell and synapse parameters and offers an efficient approach to analyzing cortical circuits and computations. PMID:28422957

Punishment can promote defection in group-structured populations.

PubMed

Powers, Simon T; Taylor, Daniel J; Bryson, Joanna J

2012-10-21

Pro-social punishment, whereby cooperators punish defectors, is often suggested as a mechanism that maintains cooperation in large human groups. Importantly, models that support this idea have to date only allowed defectors to be the target of punishment. However, recent empirical work has demonstrated the existence of anti-social punishment in public goods games. That is, individuals that defect have been found to also punish cooperators. Some recent theoretical studies have found that such anti-social punishment can prevent the evolution of pro-social punishment and cooperation. However, the evolution of anti-social punishment in group-structured populations has not been formally addressed. Previous work has informally argued that group-structure must favour pro-social punishment. Here we formally investigate how two demographic factors, group size and dispersal frequency, affect selection pressures on pro- and anti-social punishment. Contrary to the suggestions of previous work, we find that anti-social punishment can prevent the evolution of pro-social punishment and cooperation under a range of group structures. Given that anti-social punishment has now been found in all studied extant human cultures, the claims of previous models showing the co-evolution of pro-social punishment and cooperation in group-structured populations should be re-evaluated. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Persistence versus extinction for a class of discrete-time structured population models.

PubMed

Jin, Wen; Smith, Hal L; Thieme, Horst R

2016-03-01

We provide sharp conditions distinguishing persistence and extinction for a class of discrete-time dynamical systems on the positive cone of an ordered Banach space generated by a map which is the sum of a positive linear contraction A and a nonlinear perturbation G that is compact and differentiable at zero in the direction of the cone. Such maps arise as year-to-year projections of population age, stage, or size-structure distributions in population biology where typically A has to do with survival and individual development and G captures the effects of reproduction. The threshold distinguishing persistence and extinction is the principal eigenvalue of (II−A)(−1)G'(0) provided by the Krein-Rutman Theorem, and persistence is described in terms of associated eigenfunctionals. Our results significantly extend earlier persistence results of the last two authors which required more restrictive conditions on G. They are illustrated by application of the results to a plant model with a seed bank.

A Firefly-Inspired Method for Protein Structure Prediction in Lattice Models

PubMed Central

Maher, Brian; Albrecht, Andreas A.; Loomes, Martin; Yang, Xin-She; Steinhöfel, Kathleen

2014-01-01

We introduce a Firefly-inspired algorithmic approach for protein structure prediction over two different lattice models in three-dimensional space. In particular, we consider three-dimensional cubic and three-dimensional face-centred-cubic (FCC) lattices. The underlying energy models are the Hydrophobic-Polar (H-P) model, the Miyazawa–Jernigan (M-J) model and a related matrix model. The implementation of our approach is tested on ten H-P benchmark problems of a length of 48 and ten M-J benchmark problems of a length ranging from 48 until 61. The key complexity parameter we investigate is the total number of objective function evaluations required to achieve the optimum energy values for the H-P model or competitive results in comparison to published values for the M-J model. For H-P instances and cubic lattices, where data for comparison are available, we obtain an average speed-up over eight instances of 2.1, leaving out two extreme values (otherwise, 8.8). For six M-J instances, data for comparison are available for cubic lattices and runs with a population size of 100, where, a priori, the minimum free energy is a termination criterion. The average speed-up over four instances is 1.2 (leaving out two extreme values, otherwise 1.1), which is achieved for a population size of only eight instances. The present study is a test case with initial results for ad hoc parameter settings, with the aim of justifying future research on larger instances within lattice model settings, eventually leading to the ultimate goal of implementations for off-lattice models. PMID:24970205

A firefly-inspired method for protein structure prediction in lattice models.

PubMed

Maher, Brian; Albrecht, Andreas A; Loomes, Martin; Yang, Xin-She; Steinhöfel, Kathleen

2014-01-07

We introduce a Firefly-inspired algorithmic approach for protein structure prediction over two different lattice models in three-dimensional space. In particular, we consider three-dimensional cubic and three-dimensional face-centred-cubic (FCC) lattices. The underlying energy models are the Hydrophobic-Polar (H-P) model, the Miyazawa-Jernigan (M-J) model and a related matrix model. The implementation of our approach is tested on ten H-P benchmark problems of a length of 48 and ten M-J benchmark problems of a length ranging from 48 until 61. The key complexity parameter we investigate is the total number of objective function evaluations required to achieve the optimum energy values for the H-P model or competitive results in comparison to published values for the M-J model. For H-P instances and cubic lattices, where data for comparison are available, we obtain an average speed-up over eight instances of 2.1, leaving out two extreme values (otherwise, 8.8). For six M-J instances, data for comparison are available for cubic lattices and runs with a population size of 100, where, a priori, the minimum free energy is a termination criterion. The average speed-up over four instances is 1.2 (leaving out two extreme values, otherwise 1.1), which is achieved for a population size of only eight instances. The present study is a test case with initial results for ad hoc parameter settings, with the aim of justifying future research on larger instances within lattice model settings, eventually leading to the ultimate goal of implementations for off-lattice models.

Population structure and inbreeding from pedigree analysis of purebred dogs.

PubMed

Calboli, Federico C F; Sampson, Jeff; Fretwell, Neale; Balding, David J

2008-05-01

Dogs are of increasing interest as models for human diseases, and many canine population-association studies are beginning to emerge. The choice of breeds for such studies should be informed by a knowledge of factors such as inbreeding, genetic diversity, and population structure, which are likely to depend on breed-specific selective breeding patterns. To address the lack of such studies we have exploited one of the world's most extensive resources for canine population-genetics studies: the United Kingdom (UK) Kennel Club registration database. We chose 10 representative breeds and analyzed their pedigrees since electronic records were established around 1970, corresponding to about eight generations before present. We find extremely inbred dogs in each breed except the greyhound and estimate an inbreeding effective population size between 40 and 80 for all but 2 breeds. For all but 3 breeds, >90% of unique genetic variants are lost over six generations, indicating a dramatic effect of breeding patterns on genetic diversity. We introduce a novel index Psi for measuring population structure directly from the pedigree and use it to identify subpopulations in several breeds. As well as informing the design of canine population genetics studies, our results have implications for breeding practices to enhance canine welfare.

Matrix models for size-structured populations: unrealistic fast growth or simply diffusion?

PubMed

Picard, Nicolas; Liang, Jingjing

2014-01-01

Matrix population models are widely used to study population dynamics but have been criticized because their outputs are sensitive to the dimension of the matrix (or, equivalently, to the class width). This sensitivity is concerning for the population growth rate (λ) because this is an intrinsic characteristic of the population that should not depend on the model specification. It has been suggested that the sensitivity of λ to matrix dimension was linked to the existence of fast pathways (i.e. the fraction of individuals that systematically move up a class), whose proportion increases when class width increases. We showed that for matrix population models with growth transition only from class i to class i + 1, λ was independent of the class width when the mortality and the recruitment rates were constant, irrespective of the growth rate. We also showed that if there were indeed fast pathways, there were also in about the same proportion slow pathways (i.e. the fraction of individuals that systematically remained in the same class), and that they jointly act as a diffusion process (where diffusion here is the movement in size of an individual whose size increments are random according to a normal distribution with mean zero). For 53 tree species from a tropical rain forest in the Central African Republic, the diffusion resulting from common matrix dimensions was much stronger than would be realistic. Yet, the sensitivity of λ to matrix dimension for a class width in the range 1-10 cm was small, much smaller than the sampling uncertainty on the value of λ. Moreover, λ could either increase or decrease when class width increased depending on the species. Overall, even if the class width should be kept small enough to limit diffusion, it had little impact on the estimate of λ for tree species.

The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

PubMed

Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

2017-02-01

Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

The structure of disks around intermediate-mass young stars from mid-infrared interferometry. Evidence for a population of group II disks with gaps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menu, J.; van Boekel, R.; Henning, Th.; Leinert, Ch.; Waelkens, C.; Waters, L. B. F. M.

2015-09-01

Context. The disks around Herbig Ae/Be stars are commonly divided into group I and group II based on their far-infrared spectral energy distribution, and the common interpretation for that is flared and flat disks. Our understanding of the evolution of these disks is rapidly changing. Recent observations suggest that many flaring disks have gaps, whereas flat disks are thought to be gapless. Aims: The different groups of objects can be expected to have different structural signatures in high-angular-resolution data, related to gaps, dust settling, and flaring. We aim to use such data to gain new insight into disk structure and evolution. Methods: Over the past 10 years, the MIDI instrument on the Very Large Telescope Interferometer has collected observations of several tens of protoplanetary disks. We modeled the large set of observations with simple geometric models and compared the characteristic sizes among the different objects. A population of radiative-transfer models was synthesized for interpreting the mid-infrared signatures. Results: Objects with similar luminosities show very different disk sizes in the mid-infrared. This may point to an intrinsic diversity or could also hint at different evolutionary stages of the disks. Restricting this to the young objects of intermediate mass, we confirm that most group I disks are in agreement with being transitional (i.e., they have gaps). We find that several group II objects have mid-infrared sizes and colors that overlap with sources classified as group I, transition disks. This suggests that these sources have gaps, which has been demonstrated for a subset of them. This may point to an intermediate population between gapless and transition disks. Conclusions: Flat disks with gaps are most likely descendants of flat disks without gaps. Potentially related to the formation of massive bodies, gaps may therefore even develop in disks in a far stage of grain growth and settling. The evolutionary implications of this new population could be twofold. Either gapped flat disks form a separate population of evolved disks or some of them may evolve further into flaring disks with large gaps. The latter transformation may be governed by the interaction with a massive planet, carving a large gap and dynamically exciting the grain population in the disk. Appendices A and B are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

[VARIABILITY AND DETERMINING FACTORS OF THE BODY SIZE STRUCTURE OF THE INFRAPOPULATION OF COSMOCERCA ORNATA (NEMATODA: COSMOCERCIDAE) IN MARSH FROGS].

PubMed

Kirillov, A A; Kirillova, N Yu

2015-01-01

Variability of the body size in females of the Cosmocerca ornata (Dujardin, 1845), a parasite of marsh frogs, is studied. The influence of both biotic (age, sex and a phenotype of the host, density of the parasite population) and abiotic (a season of the year, water temperature) factors on the formation of the body size structure in the C. ornata hemipopulation (infrapopulation) is demonstrated. The body size structure of the C. ornata hemipopulation is characterized by the low level of individual variability as within certain subpopulation groups of amphibians (sex, age and phenotype), so within the population of marsh frogs as a whole. The more distinct are the differences in biology and ecology of these host subpopulations, the more pronounced is the variability in the body size of C ornata.

Impact of in-Sewer Degradation of Pharmaceutical and Personal Care Products (PPCPs) Population Markers on a Population Model.

PubMed

O'Brien, Jake William; Banks, Andrew Phillip William; Novic, Andrew Joseph; Mueller, Jochen F; Jiang, Guangming; Ort, Christoph; Eaglesham, Geoff; Yuan, Zhiguo; Thai, Phong K

2017-04-04

A key uncertainty of wastewater-based epidemiology is the size of the population which contributed to a given wastewater sample. We previously developed and validated a Bayesian inference model to estimate population size based on 14 population markers which: (1) are easily measured and (2) have mass loads which correlate with population size. However, the potential uncertainty of the model prediction due to in-sewer degradation of these markers was not evaluated. In this study, we addressed this gap by testing their stability under sewer conditions and assessed whether degradation impacts the model estimates. Five markers, which formed the core of our model, were stable in the sewers while the others were not. Our evaluation showed that the presence of unstable population markers in the model did not decrease the precision of the population estimates providing that stable markers such as acesulfame remained in the model. However, to achieve the minimum uncertainty in population estimates, we propose that the core markers to be included in population models for other sites should meet two additional criteria: (3) negligible degradation in wastewater to ensure the stability of chemicals during collection; and (4) < 10% in-sewer degradation could occur during the mean residence time of the sewer network.

Comparison of Coral Reef Ecosystems along a Fishing Pressure Gradient

PubMed Central

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Parrish, Frank A.

2013-01-01

Three trophic mass-balance models representing coral reef ecosystems along a fishery gradient were compared to evaluate ecosystem effects of fishing. The majority of the biomass estimates came directly from a large-scale visual survey program; therefore, data were collected in the same way for all three models, enhancing comparability. Model outputs–such as net system production, size structure of the community, total throughput, production, consumption, production-to-respiration ratio, and Finn’s cycling index and mean path length–indicate that the systems around the unpopulated French Frigate Shoals and along the relatively lightly populated Kona Coast of Hawai’i Island are mature, stable systems with a high efficiency in recycling of biomass. In contrast, model results show that the reef system around the most populated island in the State of Hawai’i, O’ahu, is in a transitional state with reduced ecosystem resilience and appears to be shifting to an algal-dominated system. Evaluation of the candidate indicators for fishing pressure showed that indicators at the community level (e.g., total biomass, community size structure, trophic level of the community) were most robust (i.e., showed the clearest trend) and that multiple indicators are necessary to identify fishing perturbations. These indicators could be used as performance indicators when compared to a baseline for management purposes. This study shows that ecosystem models can be valuable tools in identification of the system state in terms of complexity, stability, and resilience and, therefore, can complement biological metrics currently used by monitoring programs as indicators for coral reef status. Moreover, ecosystem models can improve our understanding of a system’s internal structure that can be used to support management in identification of approaches to reverse unfavorable states. PMID:23737951

Longevity of clonal plants: why it matters and how to measure it

PubMed Central

de Witte, Lucienne C.; Stöcklin, Jürg

2010-01-01

Background Species' life-history and population dynamics are strongly shaped by the longevity of individuals, but life span is one of the least accessible demographic traits, particularly in clonal plants. Continuous vegetative reproduction of genets enables persistence despite low or no sexual reproduction, affecting genet turnover rates and population stability. Therefore, the longevity of clonal plants is of considerable biological interest, but remains relatively poorly known. Scope Here, we critically review the present knowledge on the longevity of clonal plants and discuss its importance for population persistence. Direct life-span measurements such as growth-ring analysis in woody plants are relatively easy to take, although, for many clonal plants, these methods are not adequate due to the variable growth pattern of ramets and difficult genet identification. Recently, indirect methods have been introduced in which genet size and annual shoot increments are used to estimate genet age. These methods, often based on molecular techniques, allow the investigation of genet size and age structure of whole populations, a crucial issue for understanding their viability and persistence. However, indirect estimates of clonal longevity are impeded because the process of ageing in clonal plants is still poorly understood and because their size and age are not always well correlated. Alternative estimators for genet life span such as somatic mutations have recently been suggested. Conclusions Empirical knowledge on the longevity of clonal species has increased considerably in the last few years. Maximum age estimates are an indicator of population persistence, but are not sufficient to evaluate turnover rates and the ability of long-lived clonal plants to enhance community stability and ecosystem resilience. In order to understand the dynamics of populations it will be necessary to measure genet size and age structure, not only life spans of single individuals, and to use such data for modelling of genet dynamics. PMID:20880935

Spatio-temporal population structuring and genetic diversity retention in depleted Atlantic Bluefin tuna of the Mediterranean Sea

PubMed Central

Riccioni, Giulia; Landi, Monica; Ferrara, Giorgia; Milano, Ilaria; Cariani, Alessia; Zane, Lorenzo; Sella, Massimo; Barbujani, Guido; Tinti, Fausto

2010-01-01

Fishery genetics have greatly changed our understanding of population dynamics and structuring in marine fish. In this study, we show that the Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ABFT, Thunnus thynnus), an oceanic predatory species exhibiting highly migratory behavior, large population size, and high potential for dispersal during early life stages, displays significant genetic differences over space and time, both at the fine and large scales of variation. We compared microsatellite variation of contemporary (n = 256) and historical (n = 99) biological samples of ABFTs of the central-western Mediterranean Sea, the latter dating back to the early 20th century. Measures of genetic differentiation and a general heterozygote deficit suggest that differences exist among population samples, both now and 96–80 years ago. Thus, ABFTs do not represent a single panmictic population in the Mediterranean Sea. Statistics designed to infer changes in population size, both from current and past genetic variation, suggest that some Mediterranean ABFT populations, although still not severely reduced in their genetic potential, might have suffered from demographic declines. The short-term estimates of effective population size are straddled on the minimum threshold (effective population size = 500) indicated to maintain genetic diversity and evolutionary potential across several generations in natural populations. PMID:20080643

Estimation of effectiveness of three methods of feral cat population control by use of a simulation model.

PubMed

McCarthy, Robert J; Levine, Stephen H; Reed, J Michael

2013-08-15

To predict effectiveness of 3 interventional methods of population control for feral cat colonies. Population model. Estimates of vital data for feral cats. Data were gathered from the literature regarding the demography and mating behavior of feral cats. An individual-based stochastic simulation model was developed to evaluate the effectiveness of trap-neuter-release (TNR), lethal control, and trap-vasectomy-hysterectomy-release (TVHR) in decreasing the size of feral cat populations. TVHR outperformed both TNR and lethal control at all annual capture probabilities between 10% and 90%. Unless > 57% of cats were captured and neutered annually by TNR or removed by lethal control, there was minimal effect on population size. In contrast, with an annual capture rate of ≥ 35%, TVHR caused population size to decrease. An annual capture rate of 57% eliminated the modeled population in 4,000 days by use of TVHR, whereas > 82% was required for both TNR and lethal control. When the effect of fraction of adult cats neutered on kitten and young juvenile survival rate was included in the analysis, TNR performed progressively worse and could be counterproductive, such that population size increased, compared with no intervention at all. TVHR should be preferred over TNR for management of feral cats if decrease in population size is the goal. This model allowed for many factors related to the trapping program and cats to be varied and should be useful for determining the financial and person-effort commitments required to have a desired effect on a given feral cat population.

The noisy edge of traveling waves

PubMed Central

Hallatschek, Oskar

2011-01-01

Traveling waves are ubiquitous in nature and control the speed of many important dynamical processes, including chemical reactions, epidemic outbreaks, and biological evolution. Despite their fundamental role in complex systems, traveling waves remain elusive because they are often dominated by rare fluctuations in the wave tip, which have defied any rigorous analysis so far. Here, we show that by adjusting nonlinear model details, noisy traveling waves can be solved exactly. The moment equations of these tuned models are closed and have a simple analytical structure resembling the deterministic approximation supplemented by a nonlocal cutoff term. The peculiar form of the cutoff shapes the noisy edge of traveling waves and is critical for the correct prediction of the wave speed and its fluctuations. Our approach is illustrated and benchmarked using the example of fitness waves arising in simple models of microbial evolution, which are highly sensitive to number fluctuations. We demonstrate explicitly how these models can be tuned to account for finite population sizes and determine how quickly populations adapt as a function of population size and mutation rates. More generally, our method is shown to apply to a broad class of models, in which number fluctuations are generated by branching processes. Because of this versatility, the method of model tuning may serve as a promising route toward unraveling universal properties of complex discrete particle systems. PMID:21187435

Decision tree methods: applications for classification and prediction.

PubMed

Song, Yan-Yan; Lu, Ying

2015-04-25

Decision tree methodology is a commonly used data mining method for establishing classification systems based on multiple covariates or for developing prediction algorithms for a target variable. This method classifies a population into branch-like segments that construct an inverted tree with a root node, internal nodes, and leaf nodes. The algorithm is non-parametric and can efficiently deal with large, complicated datasets without imposing a complicated parametric structure. When the sample size is large enough, study data can be divided into training and validation datasets. Using the training dataset to build a decision tree model and a validation dataset to decide on the appropriate tree size needed to achieve the optimal final model. This paper introduces frequently used algorithms used to develop decision trees (including CART, C4.5, CHAID, and QUEST) and describes the SPSS and SAS programs that can be used to visualize tree structure.

Fishing degrades size structure of coral reef fish communities.

PubMed

Robinson, James P W; Williams, Ivor D; Edwards, Andrew M; McPherson, Jana; Yeager, Lauren; Vigliola, Laurent; Brainard, Russell E; Baum, Julia K

2017-03-01

Fishing pressure on coral reef ecosystems has been frequently linked to reductions of large fishes and reef fish biomass. Associated impacts on overall community structure are, however, less clear. In size-structured aquatic ecosystems, fishing impacts are commonly quantified using size spectra, which describe the distribution of individual body sizes within a community. We examined the size spectra and biomass of coral reef fish communities at 38 US-affiliated Pacific islands that ranged in human presence from near pristine to human population centers. Size spectra 'steepened' steadily with increasing human population and proximity to market due to a reduction in the relative biomass of large fishes and an increase in the dominance of small fishes. Reef fish biomass was substantially lower on inhabited islands than uninhabited ones, even at inhabited islands with the lowest levels of human presence. We found that on populated islands size spectra exponents decreased (analogous to size spectra steepening) linearly with declining biomass, whereas on uninhabited islands there was no relationship. Size spectra were steeper in regions of low sea surface temperature but were insensitive to variation in other environmental and geomorphic covariates. In contrast, reef fish biomass was highly sensitive to oceanographic conditions, being influenced by both oceanic productivity and sea surface temperature. Our results suggest that community size structure may be a more robust indicator than fish biomass to increasing human presence and that size spectra are reliable indicators of exploitation impacts across regions of different fish community compositions, environmental drivers, and fisheries types. Size-based approaches that link directly to functional properties of fish communities, and are relatively insensitive to abiotic variation across biogeographic regions, offer great potential for developing our understanding of fishing impacts in coral reef ecosystems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimate of the size and demographic structure of the owned dog and cat population living in Veneto region (north-eastern Italy).

PubMed

Capello, Katia; Bortolotti, Laura; Lanari, Manuela; Baioni, Elisa; Mutinelli, Franco; Vascellari, Marta

2015-01-01

The knowledge of the size and demographic structure of animal populations is a necessary prerequisite for any population-based epidemiological study, especially to ascertain and interpret prevalence data, to implement surveillance plans in controlling zoonotic diseases and, moreover, to provide accurate estimates of tumours incidence data obtained by population-based registries. The main purpose of this study was to provide an accurate estimate of the size and structure of the canine population in Veneto region (north-eastern Italy), using the Lincoln-Petersen version of the capture-recapture methodology. The Regional Canine Demographic Registry (BAC) and a sample survey of households of Veneto Region were the capture and recapture sources, respectively. The secondary purpose was to estimate the size and structure of the feline population in the same region, using the same survey applied for dog population. A sample of 2465 randomly selected households was drawn and submitted to a questionnaire using the CATI technique, in order to obtain information about the ownership of dogs and cats. If the dog was declared to be identified, owner's information was used to recapture the dog in the BAC. The study was conducted in Veneto Region during 2011, when the dog population recorded in the BAC was 605,537. Overall, 616 households declared to possess at least one dog (25%), with a total of 805 dogs and an average per household of 1.3. The capture-recapture analysis showed that 574 dogs (71.3%, 95% CI: 68.04-74.40%) had been recaptured in both sources, providing a dog population estimate of 849,229 (95% CI: 814,747-889,394), 40% higher than that registered in the BAC. Concerning cats, 455 of 2465 (18%, 95% CI: 17-20%) households declared to possess at least one cat at the time of the telephone interview, with a total of 816 cats. The mean number of cats per household was equal to 1.8, providing an estimate of the cat population in Veneto region equal to 663,433 (95% CI: 626,585-737,159). The estimate of the size and structure of owned canine and feline populations in Veneto region provide useful data to perform epidemiological studies and monitoring plans in this area. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Plasma asymmetric dimethylarginine, L-arginine and left ventricular structure and function in a community-based sample.

PubMed

Lieb, Wolfgang; Benndorf, Ralf A; Benjamin, Emelia J; Sullivan, Lisa M; Maas, Renke; Xanthakis, Vanessa; Schwedhelm, Edzard; Aragam, Jayashri; Schulze, Friedrich; Böger, Rainer H; Vasan, Ramachandran S

2009-05-01

Increasing evidence indicates that cardiac structure and function are modulated by the nitric oxide (NO) system. Elevated plasma concentrations of asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA; a competitive inhibitor of NO synthase) have been reported in patients with end-stage renal disease. It is unclear if circulating ADMA and L-arginine levels are related to cardiac structure and function in the general population. We related plasma ADMA and L-arginine (the amino acid precursor of NO) to echocardiographic left ventricular (LV) mass, left atrial (LA) size and fractional shortening (FS) using multivariable linear regression analyses in 1919 Framingham Offspring Study participants (mean age 57 years, 58% women). Overall, neither ADMA or L-arginine, nor their ratio was associated with LV mass, LA size and FS in multivariable models (p>0.10 for all). However, we observed effect modification by obesity of the relations of ADMA and LA size (p for interaction p=0.04): ADMA was positively related to LA size in obese individuals (adjusted-p=0.0004 for trend across ADMA quartiles) but not in non-obese people. In our large community-based sample, plasma ADMA and l-arginine concentrations were not related to cardiac structure or function. The observation of positive relations of LA size and ADMA in obese individuals warrants confirmation.

Life-History Traits and Population Structure of Pederson Cleaner Shrimps Ancylomenes pedersoni.

PubMed

Gilpin, Jessica A; Chadwick, Nanette E

2017-12-01

Cleaner organisms perform key functional roles in reducing rates of parasitism in marine communities. Pederson cleaner shrimps Ancylomenes pedersoni are major cleaners of reef fishes in the tropical western Atlantic and form obligate symbioses with host sea anemones. Information about their life-history traits would contribute to understanding how symbiosis impacts life-history evolution in crustaceans, but little is known about patterns of growth and reproduction in this anemone shrimp. We quantified growth, sexual reproduction, senescence, and mortality in individuals of A. pedersoni under laboratory conditions and their abundance and population size structure on coral reefs in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands. Von Bertalanffy growth curves were fitted to the data to determine age-size relationships, and the Beverton-Holt model was used to estimate mortality rates and size at maximum yield. Individuals grew rapidly when young, then slowed their growth after reaching sexual maturity at ~6 months. Individuals were gonochoric, with males attaining significantly smaller body sizes and shorter life spans than did females. Prior to death at <2 years, members of both genders exhibited senescence during which they ceased reproducing, shrank (females only), and decreased their activity levels over ~1-4 weeks. Field populations were abundant and composed mostly of juveniles during both years examined. Populations appeared to be stable but highly dynamic in terms of individuals, reaching maximum yield at 4 months of age. We conclude that obligate symbiosis with large sea anemones and cleaner mutualism with reef fishes both contribute to explaining aspects of the life history of Pederson shrimps, especially their apparent mating system of pure-search polygynandry. This life-history information also provides a scientific basis for sustainable fishery management and aquaculture of this key coral reef organism.

Estimating Effects of Species Interactions on Populations of Endangered Species.

PubMed

Roth, Tobias; Bühler, Christoph; Amrhein, Valentin

2016-04-01

Global change causes community composition to change considerably through time, with ever-new combinations of interacting species. To study the consequences of newly established species interactions, one available source of data could be observational surveys from biodiversity monitoring. However, approaches using observational data would need to account for niche differences between species and for imperfect detection of individuals. To estimate population sizes of interacting species, we extended N-mixture models that were developed to estimate true population sizes in single species. Simulations revealed that our model is able to disentangle direct effects of dominant on subordinate species from indirect effects of dominant species on detection probability of subordinate species. For illustration, we applied our model to data from a Swiss amphibian monitoring program and showed that sizes of expanding water frog populations were negatively related to population sizes of endangered yellow-bellied toads and common midwife toads and partly of natterjack toads. Unlike other studies that analyzed presence and absence of species, our model suggests that the spread of water frogs in Central Europe is one of the reasons for the decline of endangered toad species. Thus, studying population impacts of dominant species on population sizes of endangered species using data from biodiversity monitoring programs should help to inform conservation policy and to decide whether competing species should be subject to population management.

Costs of reproduction can explain the correlated evolution of semelparity and egg size: theory and a test with salmon.

PubMed

Kindsvater, Holly K; Braun, Douglas C; Otto, Sarah P; Reynolds, John D

2016-06-01

Species' life history traits, including maturation age, number of reproductive bouts, offspring size and number, reflect adaptations to diverse biotic and abiotic selection pressures. A striking example of divergent life histories is the evolution of either iteroparity (breeding multiple times) or semelparity (breed once and die). We analysed published data on salmonid fishes and found that semelparous species produce larger eggs, that egg size and number increase with salmonid body size among populations and species and that migratory behaviour and parity interact. We developed three hypotheses that might explain the patterns in our data and evaluated them in a stage-structured modelling framework accounting for different growth and survival scenarios. Our models predict the observation of small eggs in iteroparous species when egg size is costly to maternal survival or egg number is constrained. By exploring trait co-variation in salmonids, we generate new hypotheses for the evolution of trade-offs among life history traits. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Urban characteristics attributable to density-driven tie formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Wei; Ghoshal, Gourab; Krumme, Coco; Cebrian, Manuel; Pentland, Alex

2013-06-01

Motivated by empirical evidence on the interplay between geography, population density and societal interaction, we propose a generative process for the evolution of social structure in cities. Our analytical and simulation results predict both super-linear scaling of social-tie density and information contagion as a function of the population. Here we demonstrate that our model provides a robust and accurate fit for the dependency of city characteristics with city-size, ranging from individual-level dyadic interactions (number of acquaintances, volume of communication) to population level variables (contagious disease rates, patenting activity, economic productivity and crime) without the need to appeal to heterogeneity, modularity, specialization or hierarchy.

Complex small pelagic fish population patterns arising from individual behavioral responses to their environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brochier, Timothée; Auger, Pierre-Amaël; Pecquerie, Laure; Machu, Eric; Capet, Xavier; Thiaw, Modou; Mbaye, Baye Cheikh; Braham, Cheikh-Baye; Ettahiri, Omar; Charouki, Najib; Sène, Ousseynou Ndaw; Werner, Francisco; Brehmer, Patrice

2018-05-01

Small pelagic fish (SPF) species are heavily exploited in eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS) as their transformation products are increasingly used in the world's food chain. Management relies on regular monitoring, but there is a lack of robust theories for the emergence of the populations' traits and their evolution in highly variable environments. This work aims to address existing knowledge gaps by combining physical and biogeochemical modelling with an individual life-cycle based model applied to round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) off northwest Africa, a key species for regional food security. Our approach focused on the processes responsible for seasonal migrations, spatio-temporal size-structure, and interannual biomass fluctuations. Emergence of preferred habitat resulted from interactions between natal homing behavior and environmental variability that impacts early life stages. Exploration of the environment by the fishes was determined by swimming capabilities, mesoscale to regional habitat structure, and horizontal currents. Fish spatio-temporal abundance variability emerged from a complex combination of distinct life-history traits. An alongshore gradient in fish size distributions is reported and validated by in situ measurements. New insights into population structure are provided, within an area where the species is abundant year-round (Mauritania) and with latitudinal migrations of variable (300-1200 km) amplitude. Interannual biomass fluctuations were linked to modulations of fish recruitment over the Sahara Bank driven by variability in alongshore current intensity. The identified processes constitute an analytical framework that can be implemented in other EBUS and used to explore impacts of regional climate change on SPF.

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 - Consequences for Blood Donation.

PubMed

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-06-01

This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of 'non-donors') in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060.

Population dynamics coded in DNA: genetic traces of the expansion of modern humans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimmel, Marek

1999-12-01

It has been proposed that modern humans evolved from a small ancestral population, which appeared several hundred thousand years ago in Africa. Descendants of the founder group migrated to Europe and then to Asia, not mixing with the pre-existing local populations but replacing them. Two demographic elements are present in this “out of Africa” hypothesis: numerical growth of the modern humans and their migration into Eurasia. Did these processes leave an imprint in our DNA? To address this question, we use the classical Fisher-Wright-Moran model of population genetics, assuming variable population size and two models of mutation: the infinite-sites model and the stepwise-mutation model. We use the coalescence theory, which amounts to tracing the common ancestors of contemporary genes. We obtain mathematical formulae expressing the distribution of alleles given the time changes of population size . In the framework of the infinite-sites model, simulations indicate that the pattern of past population size change leaves its signature on the pattern of DNA polymorphism. Application of the theory to the published mitochondrial DNA sequences indicates that the current mitochondrial DNA sequence variation is not inconsistent with the logistic growth of the modern human population. In the framework of the stepwise-mutation model, we demonstrate that population bottleneck followed by growth in size causes an imbalance between allele-size variance and heterozygosity. We analyze a set of data on tetranucleotide repeats which reveals the existence of this imbalance. The pattern of imbalance is consistent with the bottleneck being most ancient in Africans, most recent in Asians and intermediate in Europeans. These findings are consistent with the “out of Africa” hypothesis, although by no means do they constitute its proof.

A model for a spatially structured metapopulation accounting for within patch dynamics.

PubMed

Smith, Andrew G; McVinish, Ross; Pollett, Philip K

2014-01-01

We develop a stochastic metapopulation model that accounts for spatial structure as well as within patch dynamics. Using a deterministic approximation derived from a functional law of large numbers, we develop conditions for extinction and persistence of the metapopulation in terms of the birth, death and migration parameters. Interestingly, we observe the Allee effect in a metapopulation comprising two patches of greatly different sizes, despite there being decreasing patch specific per-capita birth rates. We show that the Allee effect is due to the way the migration rates depend on the population density of the patches. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

2013-01-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

PubMed

Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

2013-10-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Population structure and effective/census population size ratio in threatened three-spined stickleback populations from an isolated river basin in northwest Spain.

PubMed

Pérez-Figueroa, A; Fernández, C; Amaro, R; Hermida, M; San Miguel, E

2015-08-01

Variability at 20 microsatellite loci was examined to assess the population genetic structure, gene flow, and effective population size (N(e)) in three populations of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from the upper basin of the Miño River in Galicia, NW Spain, where this species is threatened. The three populations showed similar levels of genetic diversity. There is a significant genetic differentiation between the three populations, but also significant gene flow. N(e) estimates based on linkage disequilibrium yielded values of 355 for the Miño River population and 241 and 311 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively, although we expect that these are overestimates. N(e) estimates based on temporal methods, considering gene flow or not, for the tributaries yielded values of 30-56 and 47-56 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively. Estimated census size (N(c)) for the Rato River was 880 individuals. This yielded a N(e)/N(c) estimate of 3-6 % for temporal estimation of N(e), which is within the empirical range observed in freshwater fishes. We suggest that the three populations analyzed have a sufficient level of genetic diversity with some genetic structure. Additionally, the absence of physical barriers suggests that conservation efforts and monitoring should focus in the whole basin as a unit.

Predation by Northern Pikeminnow and tiger muskellunge on juvenile salmonids in a high–head reservoir: Implications for anadromous fish reintroductions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sorel, Mark H.; Hansen, Adam G.; Connelly, Kristin A.; Wilson, Andrew C.; Lowery, Erin D.; Beauchamp, David A.

2016-01-01

The feasibility of reintroducing anadromous salmonids into reservoirs above high-head dams is affected by the suitability of the reservoir habitat for rearing and the interactions of the resident fish with introduced fish. We evaluated the predation risk to anadromous salmonids considered for reintroduction in Merwin Reservoir on the North Fork Lewis River in Washington State for two reservoir use-scenarios: year-round rearing and smolt migration. We characterized the role of the primary predators, Northern Pikeminnow Ptychocheilus oregonensis and tiger muskellunge (Northern Pike Esox lucius × Muskellunge E. masquinongy), by using stable isotopes and stomach content analysis, quantified seasonal, per capita predation using bioenergetics modeling, and evaluated the size and age structures of the populations. We then combined these inputs to estimate predation rates of size-structured population units. Northern Pikeminnow of FL ≥ 300 mm were highly cannibalistic and exhibited modest, seasonal, per capita predation on salmonids, but they were disproportionately much less abundant than smaller, less piscivorous, conspecifics. The annual predation on kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka (in biomass) by a size-structured unit of 1,000 Northern Pikeminnow having a FL ≥ 300 mm was analogous to 16,000–40,000 age-0 spring Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha rearing year-round, or 400–1,000 age-1 smolts migrating April–June. The per capita consumption of salmonids by Northern Pikeminnow having a FL ≥ 200 mm was relatively low, due in large part to spatial segregation during the summer and the skewed size distribution of the predator population. Tiger muskellunge fed heavily on Northern Pikeminnow, other nonsalmonids, and minimally on salmonids. In addition to cannibalism within the Northern Pikeminnow population, predation by tiger muskellunge likely contributed to the low recruitment of larger (more piscivorous) Northern Pikeminnow, thereby decreasing the risk of predation to salmonids. This study highlights the importance of evaluating trophic interactions within reservoirs slated for reintroduction with anadromous salmonids, as they can be functional migration corridors and may offer profitable juvenile-rearing habitats despite hosting abundant predator populations.

Critical Mutation Rate Has an Exponential Dependence on Population Size in Haploid and Diploid Populations

PubMed Central

Aston, Elizabeth; Channon, Alastair; Day, Charles; Knight, Christopher G.

2013-01-01

Understanding the effect of population size on the key parameters of evolution is particularly important for populations nearing extinction. There are evolutionary pressures to evolve sequences that are both fit and robust. At high mutation rates, individuals with greater mutational robustness can outcompete those with higher fitness. This is survival-of-the-flattest, and has been observed in digital organisms, theoretically, in simulated RNA evolution, and in RNA viruses. We introduce an algorithmic method capable of determining the relationship between population size, the critical mutation rate at which individuals with greater robustness to mutation are favoured over individuals with greater fitness, and the error threshold. Verification for this method is provided against analytical models for the error threshold. We show that the critical mutation rate for increasing haploid population sizes can be approximated by an exponential function, with much lower mutation rates tolerated by small populations. This is in contrast to previous studies which identified that critical mutation rate was independent of population size. The algorithm is extended to diploid populations in a system modelled on the biological process of meiosis. The results confirm that the relationship remains exponential, but show that both the critical mutation rate and error threshold are lower for diploids, rather than higher as might have been expected. Analyzing the transition from critical mutation rate to error threshold provides an improved definition of critical mutation rate. Natural populations with their numbers in decline can be expected to lose genetic material in line with the exponential model, accelerating and potentially irreversibly advancing their decline, and this could potentially affect extinction, recovery and population management strategy. The effect of population size is particularly strong in small populations with 100 individuals or less; the exponential model has significant potential in aiding population management to prevent local (and global) extinction events. PMID:24386200

Population viability of the Snake River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emlen, John M.

1995-01-01

In the presence of historical data, population viability models of intermediate complexity can be parameterized and utilized to project the consequences of various management actions for endangered species. A general stochastic population dynamics model with density feedback, age structure, and autocorrelated environmental fluctuations was constructed and parameterized for best fit over 36 years of spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd count data in five Idaho index streams. Simulations indicate that persistence of the Snake River spring chinook salmon population depends primarily on density-independent mortality. Improvement of rearing habitat, predator control, reduced fishing pressure, and improved dam passage all would alleviate density-independent mortality. The current value of the Ricker α should provide for a continuation of the status quo. A recovery of the population to 1957–1961 levels within 100 years would require an approximately 75% increase in survival and (or) fecundity. Manipulations of the Ricker β are likely to have little or no effect on persistence versus extinction, but considerable influence on population size.

Analytical properties of a three-compartmental dynamical demographic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Postnikov, E. B.

2015-07-01

The three-compartmental demographic model by Korotaeyv-Malkov-Khaltourina, connecting population size, economic surplus, and education level, is considered from the point of view of dynamical systems theory. It is shown that there exist two integrals of motion, which enables the system to be reduced to one nonlinear ordinary differential equation. The study of its structure provides analytical criteria for the dominance ranges of the dynamics of Malthus and Kremer. Additionally, the particular ranges of parameters enable the derived general ordinary differential equations to be reduced to the models of Gompertz and Thoularis-Wallace.

The final size of a SARS epidemic model without quarantine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Sze-Bi; Roeger, Lih-Ing W.

2007-09-01

In this article, we present the continuing work on a SARS model without quarantine by Hsu and Hsieh [Sze-Bi Hsu, Ying-Hen Hsieh, Modeling intervention measures and severity-dependent public response during severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 66 (2006) 627-647]. An "acting basic reproductive number" [psi] is used to predict the final size of the susceptible population. We find the relation among the final susceptible population size S[infinity], the initial susceptible population S0, and [psi]. If [psi]>1, the disease will prevail and the final size of the susceptible, S[infinity], becomes zero; therefore, everyone in the population will be infected eventually. If [psi]<1, the disease dies out, and then S[infinity]>0 which means part of the population will never be infected. Also, when S[infinity]>0, S[infinity] is increasing with respect to the initial susceptible population S0, and decreasing with respect to the acting basic reproductive number [psi].

Bottleneck Effect on Evolutionary Rate in the Nearly Neutral Mutation Model

PubMed Central

Araki, H.; Tachida, H.

1997-01-01

Variances of evolutionary rates among lineages in some proteins are larger than those expected from simple Poisson processes. This phenomenon is called overdispersion of the molecular clock. If population size N is constant, the overdispersion is observed only in a limited range of 2Nσ under the nearly neutral mutation model, where σ represents the standard deviation of selection coefficients of new mutants. In this paper, we investigated effects of changing population size on the evolutionary rate by computer simulations assuming the nearly neutral mutation model. The size was changed cyclically between two numbers, N(1) and N(2) (N(1) > N(2)), in the simulations. The overdispersion is observed if 2N(2)σ is less than two and the state of reduced size (bottleneck state) continues for more than ~0.1/u generations, where u is the mutation rate. The overdispersion results mainly because the average fitnesses of only a portion of populations go down when the population size is reduced and only in these populations subsequent advantageous substitutions occur after the population size becomes large. Since the fitness reduction after the bottleneck is stochastic, acceleration of the evolutionary rate does not necessarily occur uniformly among loci. From these results, we argue that the nearly neutral mutation model is a candidate mechanism to explain the overdispersed molecular clock. PMID:9335622

Probable causes of increasing brucellosis in free-ranging elk of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, P.C.; Cole, E.K.; Dobson, A.P.; Edwards, W.H.; Hamlin, K.L.; Luikart, G.; Middleton, A.D.; Scurlock, B.M.; White, P.J.

2010-01-01

While many wildlife species are threatened, some populations have recovered from previous overexploitation, and data linking these population increases with disease dynamics are limited. We present data suggesting that free-ranging elk (Cervus elaphus) are a maintenance host for Brucella abortus in new areas of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Brucellosis seroprevalence in free-ranging elk increased from 0-7% in 1991-1992 to 8-20% in 2006-2007 in four of six herd units around the GYE. These levels of brucellosis are comparable to some herd units where elk are artificially aggregated on supplemental feeding grounds. There are several possible mechanisms for this increase that we evaluated using statistical and population modeling approaches. Simulations of an age-structured population model suggest that the observed levels of seroprevalence are unlikely to be sustained by dispersal from supplemental feeding areas with relatively high seroprevalence or an older age structure. Increases in brucellosis seroprevalence and the total elk population size in areas with feeding grounds have not been statistically detectable. Meanwhile, the rate of seroprevalence increase outside the feeding grounds was related to the population size and density of each herd unit. Therefore, the data suggest that enhanced elk-to-elk transmission in free-ranging populations may be occurring due to larger winter elk aggregations. Elk populations inside and outside of the GYE that traditionally did not maintain brucellosis may now be at risk due to recent population increases. In particular, some neighboring populations of Montana elk were 5-9 times larger in 2007 than in the 1970s, with some aggregations comparable to the Wyoming feeding-ground populations. Addressing the unintended consequences of these increasing populations is complicated by limited hunter access to private lands, which places many ungulate populations out of administrative control. Agency-landowner hunting access partnerships and the protection of large predators are two management strategies that may be used to target high ungulate densities in private refuges and reduce the current and future burden of disease. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Genotyping by sequencing resolves shallow population structure to inform conservation of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

PubMed Central

Larson, Wesley A; Seeb, Lisa W; Everett, Meredith V; Waples, Ryan K; Templin, William D; Seeb, James E

2014-01-01

Recent advances in population genomics have made it possible to detect previously unidentified structure, obtain more accurate estimates of demographic parameters, and explore adaptive divergence, potentially revolutionizing the way genetic data are used to manage wild populations. Here, we identified 10 944 single-nucleotide polymorphisms using restriction-site-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing to explore population structure, demography, and adaptive divergence in five populations of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from western Alaska. Patterns of population structure were similar to those of past studies, but our ability to assign individuals back to their region of origin was greatly improved (>90% accuracy for all populations). We also calculated effective size with and without removing physically linked loci identified from a linkage map, a novel method for nonmodel organisms. Estimates of effective size were generally above 1000 and were biased downward when physically linked loci were not removed. Outlier tests based on genetic differentiation identified 733 loci and three genomic regions under putative selection. These markers and genomic regions are excellent candidates for future research and can be used to create high-resolution panels for genetic monitoring and population assignment. This work demonstrates the utility of genomic data to inform conservation in highly exploited species with shallow population structure. PMID:24665338

A Bayesian Nonparametric Meta-Analysis Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karabatsos, George; Talbott, Elizabeth; Walker, Stephen G.

2015-01-01

In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal effect-size population distribution, conditionally on parameters and covariates. For estimating the mean overall…

Effects of Genetic Drift and Gene Flow on the Selective Maintenance of Genetic Variation

PubMed Central

Star, Bastiaan; Spencer, Hamish G.

2013-01-01

Explanations for the genetic variation ubiquitous in natural populations are often classified by the population–genetic processes they emphasize: natural selection or mutation and genetic drift. Here we investigate models that incorporate all three processes in a spatially structured population, using what we call a construction approach, simulating finite populations under selection that are bombarded with a steady stream of novel mutations. As expected, the amount of genetic variation compared to previous models that ignored the stochastic effects of drift was reduced, especially for smaller populations and when spatial structure was most profound. By contrast, however, for higher levels of gene flow and larger population sizes, the amount of genetic variation found after many generations was greater than that in simulations without drift. This increased amount of genetic variation is due to the introduction of slightly deleterious alleles by genetic drift and this process is more efficient when migration load is higher. The incorporation of genetic drift also selects for fitness sets that exhibit allele-frequency equilibria with larger domains of attraction: they are “more stable.” Moreover, the finiteness of populations strongly influences levels of local adaptation, selection strength, and the proportion of allele-frequency vectors that can be distinguished from the neutral expectation. PMID:23457235

Structural brain development between childhood and adulthood: Convergence across four longitudinal samples.

PubMed

Mills, Kathryn L; Goddings, Anne-Lise; Herting, Megan M; Meuwese, Rosa; Blakemore, Sarah-Jayne; Crone, Eveline A; Dahl, Ronald E; Güroğlu, Berna; Raznahan, Armin; Sowell, Elizabeth R; Tamnes, Christian K

2016-11-01

Longitudinal studies including brain measures acquired through magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) have enabled population models of human brain development, crucial for our understanding of typical development as well as neurodevelopmental disorders. Brain development in the first two decades generally involves early cortical grey matter volume (CGMV) increases followed by decreases, and monotonic increases in cerebral white matter volume (CWMV). However, inconsistencies regarding the precise developmental trajectories call into question the comparability of samples. This issue can be addressed by conducting a comprehensive study across multiple datasets from diverse populations. Here, we present replicable models for gross structural brain development between childhood and adulthood (ages 8-30years) by repeating analyses in four separate longitudinal samples (391 participants; 852 scans). In addition, we address how accounting for global measures of cranial/brain size affect these developmental trajectories. First, we found evidence for continued development of both intracranial volume (ICV) and whole brain volume (WBV) through adolescence, albeit following distinct trajectories. Second, our results indicate that CGMV is at its highest in childhood, decreasing steadily through the second decade with deceleration in the third decade, while CWMV increases until mid-to-late adolescence before decelerating. Importantly, we show that accounting for cranial/brain size affects models of regional brain development, particularly with respect to sex differences. Our results increase confidence in our knowledge of the pattern of brain changes during adolescence, reduce concerns about discrepancies across samples, and suggest some best practices for statistical control of cranial volume and brain size in future studies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inflexibility and independence: Phase transitions in the majority-rule model.

PubMed

Crokidakis, Nuno; de Oliveira, Paulo Murilo Castro

2015-12-01

In this work we study opinion formation in a population participating in a public debate with two distinct choices. We consider three distinct mechanisms of social interactions and individuals' behavior: conformity, nonconformity, and inflexibility. The conformity is ruled by the majority-rule dynamics, whereas the nonconformity is introduced in the population as an independent behavior, implying the failure of attempted group influence. Finally, the inflexible agents are introduced in the population with a given density. These individuals present a singular behavior, in a way that their stubbornness makes them reluctant to change their opinions. We consider these effects separately and all together, with the aim to analyze the critical behavior of the system. We perform numerical simulations in some lattice structures and for distinct population sizes. Our results suggest that the different formulations of the model undergo order-disorder phase transitions in the same universality class as the Ising model. Some of our results are complemented by analytical calculations.

Epidemiological modeling in a branching population. Particular case of a general SIS model with two age classes.

PubMed

Jacob, C; Viet, A F

2003-03-01

This paper covers the elaboration of a general class of multitype branching processes for modeling in a branching population, the evolution of a disease with horizontal and vertical transmissions. When the size of the population may tend to infinity, normalization must be carried out. As the initial size tends to infinity, the normalized model converges a.s. to a dynamical system the solution of which is the probability law of the state of health for an individual ancestors line. The focal point of this study concerns the transient and asymptotical behaviors of a SIS model with two age classes in a branching population. We will compare the asymptotical probability of extinction on the scale of a finite population and on the scale of an individual in an infinite population: when the rates of transmission are small compared to the rate of renewing the population of susceptibles, the two models lead to a.s. extinction, giving consistent results, which no longer applies to the opposite situation of important transmissions. In that case the size of the population plays a crucial role in the spreading of the disease.

Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell J.; Link, William A.

2011-01-01

Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated to be at nine years. These size benchmarks are believed to represent thresholds for important demographic parameters; improved estimates of age, therefore, will increase the precision of population projection models. The modeling approach that we present can be applied to other species and offers significant advantages when multiple sources of data are available and traditional aging techniques are not practical.

Factors affecting economies of scale in combined sewer systems.

PubMed

Maurer, Max; Wolfram, Martin; Anja, Herlyn

2010-01-01

A generic model is introduced that represents the combined sewer infrastructure of a settlement quantitatively. A catchment area module first calculates the length and size distribution of the required sewer pipes on the basis of rain patterns, housing densities and area size. These results are fed into the sewer-cost module in order to estimate the combined sewer costs of the entire catchment area. A detailed analysis of the relevant input parameters for Swiss settlements is used to identify the influence of size on costs. The simulation results confirm that an economy of scale exists for combined sewer systems. This is the result of two main opposing cost factors: (i) increased construction costs for larger sewer systems due to larger pipes and increased rain runoff in larger settlements, and (ii) lower costs due to higher population and building densities in larger towns. In Switzerland, the more or less organically grown settlement structures and limited land availability emphasise the second factor to show an apparent economy of scale. This modelling approach proved to be a powerful tool for understanding the underlying factors affecting the cost structure for water infrastructures.

Complex interaction of dendritic connectivity and hierarchical patch size on biodiversity in river-like landscapes.

PubMed

Carrara, Francesco; Rinaldo, Andrea; Giometto, Andrea; Altermatt, Florian

2014-01-01

Habitat fragmentation and land use changes are causing major biodiversity losses. Connectivity of the landscape or environmental conditions alone can shape biodiversity patterns. In nature, however, local habitat characteristics are often intrinsically linked to a specific connectivity. Such a link is evident in riverine ecosystems, where hierarchical dendritic structures command related scaling on habitat capacity. We experimentally disentangled the effect of local habitat capacity (i.e., the patch size) and dendritic connectivity on biodiversity in aquatic microcosm metacommunities by suitably arranging patch sizes within river-like networks. Overall, more connected communities that occupy a central position in the network exhibited higher species richness, irrespective of patch size arrangement. High regional evenness in community composition was found only in landscapes preserving geomorphological scaling properties of patch sizes. In these landscapes, some of the rarer species sustained regionally more abundant populations better tracking their own niche requirements compared to landscapes with homogeneous patch size or landscapes with spatially uncorrelated patch size. Our analysis suggests that altering the natural link between dendritic connectivity and patch size strongly affects community composition and population persistence at multiple scales. The experimental results are demonstrating a principle that can be tested in theoretical metacommunity models and eventually be projected to real riverine ecosystems.

Modeling the effect of surgical sterilization on owned dog population size in Villa de Tezontepec, Hidalgo, Mexico, using an individual-based computer simulation model

PubMed Central

Kisiel, Luz Maria; Jones-Bitton, Andria; Sargeant, Jan M.; Coe, Jason B.; Flockhart, D. T. Tyler; Canales Vargas, Erick J.

2018-01-01

Surgical sterilization programs for dogs have been proposed as interventions to control dog population size. Models can be used to help identify the long-term impact of reproduction control interventions for dogs. The objective of this study was to determine the projected impact of surgical sterilization interventions on the owned dog population size in Villa de Tezontepec, Hidalgo, Mexico. A stochastic, individual-based simulation model was constructed and parameterized using a combination of empirical data collected on the demographics of owned dogs in Villa de Tezontepec and data available from the peer-reviewed literature. Model outcomes were assessed using a 20-year time horizon. The model was used to examine: the effect of surgical sterilization strategies focused on: 1) dogs of any age and sex, 2) female dogs of any age, 3) young dogs (i.e., not yet reached sexual maturity) of any sex, and 4) young, female dogs. Model outcomes suggested that as surgical capacity increases from 21 to 84 surgeries/month, (8.6% to 34.5% annual sterilization) for dogs of any age, the mean dog population size after 20 years was reduced between 14% and 79% compared to the base case scenario (i.e. in the absence of intervention). Surgical sterilization interventions focused only on young dogs of any sex yielded greater reductions (81% - 90%) in the mean population size, depending on the level of surgical capacity. More focused sterilization targeted at female dogs of any age, resulted in reductions that were similar to focusing on mixed sex sterilization of only young dogs (82% - 92%). The greatest mean reduction in population size (90% - 91%) was associated with sterilization of only young, female dogs. Our model suggests that targeting sterilization to young females could enhance the efficacy of existing surgical dog population control interventions in this location, without investing extra resources. PMID:29856830

Modelling Size Structured Food Webs Using a Modified Niche Model with Two Predator Traits

PubMed Central

Klecka, Jan

2014-01-01

The structure of food webs is frequently described using phenomenological stochastic models. A prominent example, the niche model, was found to produce artificial food webs resembling real food webs according to a range of summary statistics. However, the size structure of food webs generated by the niche model and real food webs has not yet been rigorously compared. To fill this void, I use a body mass based version of the niche model and compare prey-predator body mass allometry and predator-prey body mass ratios predicted by the model to empirical data. The results show that the model predicts weaker size structure than observed in many real food webs. I introduce a modified version of the niche model which allows to control the strength of size-dependence of predator-prey links. In this model, optimal prey body mass depends allometrically on predator body mass and on a second trait, such as foraging mode. These empirically motivated extensions of the model allow to represent size structure of real food webs realistically and can be used to generate artificial food webs varying in several aspects of size structure in a controlled way. Hence, by explicitly including the role of species traits, this model provides new opportunities for simulating the consequences of size structure for food web dynamics and stability. PMID:25119999

Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three categories of population dynamics models: deterministic modeling with Logistic chaos map as an example, stochastic modeling with spatial distribution patterns as an example, as well as survival analysis and extended evolutionary game theory (EEGT) modeling. Sample experiment results with Genetic algorithms (GA) are presented to demonstrate the applications of these models. The proposed EC population dynamics approach also makes survival selection largely unnecessary or much simplified since the individuals are naturally selected (controlled) by the mathematical models for EC population dynamics.

A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

2006-01-01

Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

Computer simulation of wolf-removal strategies for animal-damage control

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haight, R.G.; Travis, L.E.; Nimerfro, K.; Mech, L.D.

2002-01-01

Because of the sustained growth of the gray wolf (Canis lupus) population in the western Great Lakes region of the United States, management agencies are anticipating gray wolf removal from the federal endangered species list and are proposing strategies for wolf management. Strategies are needed that would balance public demand for wolf conservation with demand for protection against wolf depredation on livestock, poultry, and pets. We used a stochastic, spatially structured, individually based simulation model of a hypothetical wolf population, representing a small subset of the western Great Lakes wolves, to predict the relative performance of 3 wolf-removal strategies. Those strategies included reactive management (wolf removal occurred in summer after depredation), preventive management (wolves removed in winter from territories with occasional depredation), and population-size management (wolves removed annually in winter from all territories near farms). Performance measures included number of depredating packs and wolves removed, cost, and population size after 20 years. We evaluated various scenarios about immigration, trapping success, and likelihood of packs engaging in depredation. Four robust results emerged from the simulations: 1) each strategy reduced depredation by at least 40% compared with no action, 2) preventive and population-size management removed fewer wolves than reactive management because wolves were removed in winter before pups were born, 3)population-size management was least expensive because repeated annual removal kept most territories near farms free of wolves, and 4) none of the strategies threatened wolf populations unless they were isolated because wolf removal took place near farms and not in wild areas. For isolated populations, reactive management alone ensured conservation and reduced depredation. Such results can assist decision makers in managing gray wolves in the western Great Lakes states.

Efficient Nondomination Level Update Method for Steady-State Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization.

PubMed

Li, Ke; Deb, Kalyanmoy; Zhang, Qingfu; Zhang, Qiang

2017-09-01

Nondominated sorting (NDS), which divides a population into several nondomination levels (NDLs), is a basic step in many evolutionary multiobjective optimization (EMO) algorithms. It has been widely studied in a generational evolution model, where the environmental selection is performed after generating a whole population of offspring. However, in a steady-state evolution model, where a population is updated right after the generation of a new candidate, the NDS can be extremely time consuming. This is especially severe when the number of objectives and population size become large. In this paper, we propose an efficient NDL update method to reduce the cost for maintaining the NDL structure in steady-state EMO. Instead of performing the NDS from scratch, our method only updates the NDLs of a limited number of solutions by extracting the knowledge from the current NDL structure. Notice that our NDL update method is performed twice at each iteration. One is after the reproduction, the other is after the environmental selection. Extensive experiments fully demonstrate that, comparing to the other five state-of-the-art NDS methods, our proposed method avoids a significant amount of unnecessary comparisons, not only in the synthetic data sets, but also in some real optimization scenarios. Last but not least, we find that our proposed method is also useful for the generational evolution model.

Genetic differentiation for size at first reproduction through male versus female functions in the widespread Mediterranean tree Pinus pinaster.

PubMed

Santos-del-Blanco, L; Climent, J; González-Martínez, S C; Pannell, J R

2012-11-01

The study of local adaptation in plant reproductive traits has received substantial attention in short-lived species, but studies conducted on forest trees are scarce. This lack of research on long-lived species represents an important gap in our knowledge, because inferences about selection on the reproduction and life history of short-lived species cannot necessarily be extrapolated to trees. This study considers whether the size for first reproduction is locally adapted across a broad geographical range of the Mediterranean conifer species Pinus pinaster. In particular, the study investigates whether this monoecious species varies genetically among populations in terms of whether individuals start to reproduce through their male function, their female function or both sexual functions simultaneously. Whether differences among populations could be attributed to local adaptation across a climatic gradient is then considered. Male and female reproduction and growth were measured during early stages of sexual maturity of a P. pinaster common garden comprising 23 populations sampled across the species range. Generalized linear mixed models were used to assess genetic variability of early reproductive life-history traits. Environmental correlations with reproductive life-history traits were tested after controlling for neutral genetic structure provided by 12 nuclear simple sequence repeat markers. Trees tended to reproduce first through their male function, at a size (height) that varied little among source populations. The transition to female reproduction was slower, showed higher levels of variability and was negatively correlated with vegetative growth traits. Several female reproductive traits were correlated with a gradient of growth conditions, even after accounting for neutral genetic structure, with populations from more unfavourable sites tending to commence female reproduction at a lower individual size. The study represents the first report of genetic variability among populations for differences in the threshold size for first reproduction between male and female sexual functions in a tree species. The relatively uniform size at which individuals begin reproducing through their male function probably represents the fact that pollen dispersal is also relatively invariant among sites. However, the genetic variability in the timing of female reproduction probably reflects environment-dependent costs of cone production. The results also suggest that early sex allocation in this species might evolve under constraints that do not apply to other conifers.

Genetic differentiation for size at first reproduction through male versus female functions in the widespread Mediterranean tree Pinus pinaster

PubMed Central

Santos-del-Blanco, L.; Climent, J.; González-Martínez, S. C.; Pannell, J. R.

2012-01-01

Background and Aims The study of local adaptation in plant reproductive traits has received substantial attention in short-lived species, but studies conducted on forest trees are scarce. This lack of research on long-lived species represents an important gap in our knowledge, because inferences about selection on the reproduction and life history of short-lived species cannot necessarily be extrapolated to trees. This study considers whether the size for first reproduction is locally adapted across a broad geographical range of the Mediterranean conifer species Pinus pinaster. In particular, the study investigates whether this monoecious species varies genetically among populations in terms of whether individuals start to reproduce through their male function, their female function or both sexual functions simultaneously. Whether differences among populations could be attributed to local adaptation across a climatic gradient is then considered. Methods Male and female reproduction and growth were measured during early stages of sexual maturity of a P. pinaster common garden comprising 23 populations sampled across the species range. Generalized linear mixed models were used to assess genetic variability of early reproductive life-history traits. Environmental correlations with reproductive life-history traits were tested after controlling for neutral genetic structure provided by 12 nuclear simple sequence repeat markers. Key Results Trees tended to reproduce first through their male function, at a size (height) that varied little among source populations. The transition to female reproduction was slower, showed higher levels of variability and was negatively correlated with vegetative growth traits. Several female reproductive traits were correlated with a gradient of growth conditions, even after accounting for neutral genetic structure, with populations from more unfavourable sites tending to commence female reproduction at a lower individual size. Conclusions The study represents the first report of genetic variability among populations for differences in the threshold size for first reproduction between male and female sexual functions in a tree species. The relatively uniform size at which individuals begin reproducing through their male function probably represents the fact that pollen dispersal is also relatively invariant among sites. However, the genetic variability in the timing of female reproduction probably reflects environment-dependent costs of cone production. The results also suggest that early sex allocation in this species might evolve under constraints that do not apply to other conifers. PMID:23002272

Living in isolation - population structure, reproduction, and genetic variation of the endangered plant species Dianthus gratianopolitanus (Cheddar pink).

PubMed

Putz, Christina M; Schmid, Christoph; Reisch, Christoph

2015-09-01

The endangered plant species Dianthus gratianopolitanus exhibits a highly fragmented distribution range comprising many isolated populations. Based upon this pattern of distribution, we selected a study region in Switzerland with a lower magnitude of isolation (Swiss Jura) and another study region in Germany with a higher degree of isolation (Franconian Jura). In each region, we chose ten populations to analyze population structure, reproduction, and genetic variation in a comparative approach. Therefore, we determined population density, cushion size, and cushion density to analyze population structure, investigated reproductive traits, including number of flowers, capsules, and germination rate, and analyzed amplified fragment length polymorphisms to study genetic variation. Population and cushion density were credibly higher in German than in Swiss populations, whereas reproductive traits and genetic variation within populations were similar in both study regions. However, genetic variation among populations and isolation by distance were stronger in Germany than in Switzerland. Generally, cushion size and density as well as flower and capsule production increased with population size and density, whereas genetic variation decreased with population density. In contrast to our assumptions, we observed denser populations and cushions in the region with the higher magnitude of isolation, whereas reproductive traits and genetic variation within populations were comparable in both regions. This corroborates the assumption that stronger isolation must not necessarily result in the loss of fitness and genetic variation. Furthermore, it supports our conclusion that the protection of strongly isolated populations contributes essentially to the conservation of a species' full evolutionary potential.

How much gene flow is needed to avoid inbreeding depression in wild tiger populations?

PubMed Central

Kenney, John; Allendorf, Fred W.; McDougal, Charles; Smith, James L. D.

2014-01-01

The number and size of tiger populations continue to decline owing to habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and poaching of tigers and their prey. As a result, tiger populations have become small and highly structured. Current populations have been isolated since the early 1970s or for approximately seven generations. The objective of this study is to explore how inbreeding may be affecting the persistence of remaining tiger populations and how dispersal, either natural or artificial, may reduce the potentially detrimental effect of inbreeding depression. We developed a tiger simulation model and used published levels of genetic load in mammals to simulate inbreeding depression. Following a 50 year period of population isolation, we introduced one to four dispersing male tigers per generation to explore how gene flow from nearby populations may reduce the negative impact of inbreeding depression. For the smallest populations, even four dispersing male tigers per generation did not increase population viability, and the likelihood of extinction is more than 90% within 30 years. Unless habitat connectivity is restored or animals are artificially introduced in the next 70 years, medium size wild populations are also likely to go extinct, with only four to five of the largest wild tiger populations likely to remain extant in this same period without intervention. To reduce the risk of local extinction, habitat connectivity must be pursued concurrently with efforts to increase population size (e.g. enhance habitat quality, increase habitat availability). It is critical that infrastructure development, dam construction and other similar projects are planned appropriately so that they do not erode the extent or quality of habitat for these populations so that they can truly serve as future source populations. PMID:24990671

How much gene flow is needed to avoid inbreeding depression in wild tiger populations?

PubMed

Kenney, John; Allendorf, Fred W; McDougal, Charles; Smith, James L D

2014-08-22

The number and size of tiger populations continue to decline owing to habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and poaching of tigers and their prey. As a result, tiger populations have become small and highly structured. Current populations have been isolated since the early 1970s or for approximately seven generations. The objective of this study is to explore how inbreeding may be affecting the persistence of remaining tiger populations and how dispersal, either natural or artificial, may reduce the potentially detrimental effect of inbreeding depression. We developed a tiger simulation model and used published levels of genetic load in mammals to simulate inbreeding depression. Following a 50 year period of population isolation, we introduced one to four dispersing male tigers per generation to explore how gene flow from nearby populations may reduce the negative impact of inbreeding depression. For the smallest populations, even four dispersing male tigers per generation did not increase population viability, and the likelihood of extinction is more than 90% within 30 years. Unless habitat connectivity is restored or animals are artificially introduced in the next 70 years, medium size wild populations are also likely to go extinct, with only four to five of the largest wild tiger populations likely to remain extant in this same period without intervention. To reduce the risk of local extinction, habitat connectivity must be pursued concurrently with efforts to increase population size (e.g. enhance habitat quality, increase habitat availability). It is critical that infrastructure development, dam construction and other similar projects are planned appropriately so that they do not erode the extent or quality of habitat for these populations so that they can truly serve as future source populations. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Influences of population size and density on birthplace effects.

PubMed

Hancock, David J; Coutinho, Patrícia; Côté, Jean; Mesquita, Isabel

2018-01-01

Contextual influences on talent development (e.g., birthplace effects) have become a topic of interest for sport scientists. Birthplace effects occur when being born in a certain city size leads to participation or performance advantages, typically for those born in smaller or mid-sized cities. The purpose of this study was to investigate birthplace effects in Portuguese volleyball players by analysing city size, as well as population density - an important but infrequently used variable. Participants included 4062 volleyball players (M age  = 33), 53.2% of whom were men. Using Portuguese national census data from 1981, we compared participants (within each sex) across five population categories. In addition, we used ANOVAs to study expertise and population density. Results indicated that men and women athletes born in districts of 200,000-399,999 were 2.4 times more likely to attain elite volleyball status, while all other districts decreased the odds of expert development. For men, being born in high-density areas resulted in less chance of achieving expertise, whereas there were no differences for women. The results suggest that athletes' infrastructure and social structure play an important role in talent development, and that these structures are influenced by total population and population density, respectively.

Toxic compounds and health and reproductive effects in St. Lawrence Beluga Whales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beland, P.; Michaud, R.; DeGuise, S.

1993-01-01

An epidemiologic study was carried out over a period of 9 years on an isolated population of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) residing in the St. Lawrence estuary (Quebec, Canada). More than 100 individual deaths were aged, and/or autopsied and analyzed for toxic compounds, and the population was surveyed for size and structure. Arctic belugas and other species of whales and seals from the St. Lawrence were used for comparison. Population dynamics: Population size appeared to be stable and modeling showed this stable pattern to result from low calf production and/or low survival to adulthood. Toxicology: St. Lawrence belugas had highermore » or much higher levels of mercury, lead, PCBs, DDT, Mirex, benzo[a]pyrene metabolites, equivalent levels of dioxins, furans, and PAH metabolites, and much lower levels of cadmium than Arctic belugas. In other St. Lawrence cetaceans, levels of PCBs and DDT were inversely related to body size, as resulting from differences in metabolic rate, diet, and trophic position, compounded by length of residence in the St. Lawrence basin. St. Lawrence belugas had much higher levels than predicted from body size alone; levels increased with age in both sexes, although unloading by females through the placenta and/or lactation was evidenced by overall lower levels in females and very high burdens in some calves. 45 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs.« less

Precipitation, density, and population dynamics of desert bighorn sheep on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bender, L.C.; Weisenberger, M.E.

2005-01-01

Understanding the determinants of population size and performance for desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis mexicana) is critical to develop effective recovery and management strategies. In arid environments, plant communities and consequently herbivore populations are strongly dependent upon precipitation, which is highly variable seasonally and annually. We conducted a retrospective exploratory analysis of desert bighorn sheep population dynamics on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), New Mexico, 1941-1976, by modeling sheep population size as a function of previous population sizes and precipitation. Population size and trend of desert bighorn were best and well described (R 2=0.89) by a model that included only total annual precipitation as a covariate. Models incorporating density-dependence, delayed density-dependence, and combinations of density and precipitation were less informative than the model containing precipitation alone (??AlCc=8.5-22.5). Lamb:female ratios were positively related to precipitation (current year: F1,34=7.09, P=0.012; previous year: F1,33=3.37, P=0.075) but were unrelated to population size (current year. F1,34=0.04, P=0.843; previous year: F1,33 =0.14, P=0.715). Instantaneous population rate of increase (r) was related to population size (F1,33=5.55; P=0.025). Precipitation limited populations of desert bighorn sheep on SANWR primarily in a density-independent manner by affecting production or survival of lambs, likely through influences on forage quantity and quality. Habitat evaluations and recovery plans for desert bighorn sheep need to consider fundamental influences on desert bighorn populations such as precipitation and food, rather than focus solely on proximate issues such as security cover, predation, and disease. Moreover, the concept of carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep may need re-evaluation in respect to highly variable (CV =35.6%) localized precipitation patterns. On SANWR carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep was zero when total annual precipitation was <28.2 cm.

Development and application of a density dependent matrix ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ranging along the Atlantic coast from US Florida to the Maritime Provinces of Canada, the Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems. Matrix population models are useful tools for ecological risk assessment because they integrate effects across the life cycle, provide a linkage between endpoints observed in the individual and ecological risk to the population as a whole, and project outcomes for many generations in the future. We developed a density dependent matrix population model for Atlantic killifish by modifying a model developed for fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) that has proved to be extremely useful, e.g. to incorporate data from laboratory studies and project effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals. We developed a size-structured model (as opposed to one that is based upon developmental stages or age class structure) so that we could readily incorporate output from a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model, currently under development. Due to a lack of sufficient data to accurately define killifish responses to density dependence, we tested a number of scenarios realistic for other fish species in order to demonstrate the outcome of including this ecologically important factor. We applied the model using published data for killifish exposed to dioxin-like compounds, and compared our results to those using

Improving size estimates of open animal populations by incorporating information on age

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Trent L.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

2003-01-01

Around the world, a great deal of effort is expended each year to estimate the sizes of wild animal populations. Unfortunately, population size has proven to be one of the most intractable parameters to estimate. The capture-recapture estimation models most commonly used (of the Jolly-Seber type) are complicated and require numerous, sometimes questionable, assumptions. The derived estimates usually have large variances and lack consistency over time. In capture–recapture studies of long-lived animals, the ages of captured animals can often be determined with great accuracy and relative ease. We show how to incorporate age information into size estimates for open populations, where the size changes through births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The proposed method allows more precise estimates of population size than the usual models, and it can provide these estimates from two sample occasions rather than the three usually required. Moreover, this method does not require specialized programs for capture-recapture data; researchers can derive their estimates using the logistic regression module in any standard statistical package.

Harbor porpoise Phocoena phocoena strandings on the Dutch coast: No genetic structure, but evidence of inbreeding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Plas-Duivesteijn, Suzanne J.; Smit, Femmie J. L.; van Alphen, Jacques J. M.; Kraaijeveld, Ken

2015-03-01

Conservation management in the North Sea is often motivated by the population size of marine mammals, like harbor porpoises Phocoena phocoena. In the Dutch part of the North Sea, sighting and stranding data are used to estimate population sizes, but these data give little insight into genetic structuring of the population. In this study we investigated genetic structure among animals stranded at different locations and times of year. We also tested whether there is a link between stranding and necropsy data, and genetic diversity. We made use of both mitochondrial (mtDNA) and microsatellite DNA analysis of samples from dead stranded porpoises along the Dutch coast during 2007. mtDNA analysis showed 6 variable positions in the control region, defining 3 different haplotypes. mtDNA haplotypes were not randomly distributed along the Dutch coastline. However, microsatellite analysis showed that these mtDNA haplotypes did not represent separate groups on a nuclear level. Furthermore, microsatellite analysis revealed no genotypic differences between seasons, locations or genders. The results of this study indicate that the Dutch population is panmictic. In contrast, heterozygosity levels were low, indicating some level of inbreeding in this population. However, this was not corroborated by other indices of inbreeding. This research provided insight into genetic structuring of stranded porpoises in 2007, but data from multiple years should be included to be able to help estimate population sizes.

Social contact networks and disease eradicability under voluntary vaccination.

PubMed

Perisic, Ana; Bauch, Chris T

2009-02-01

Certain theories suggest that it should be difficult or impossible to eradicate a vaccine-preventable disease under voluntary vaccination: Herd immunity implies that the individual incentive to vaccinate disappears at high coverage levels. Historically, there have been examples of declining coverage for vaccines, such as MMR vaccine and whole-cell pertussis vaccine, that are consistent with this theory. On the other hand, smallpox was globally eradicated by 1980 despite voluntary vaccination policies in many jurisdictions. Previous modeling studies of the interplay between disease dynamics and individual vaccinating behavior have assumed that infection is transmitted in a homogeneously mixing population. By comparison, here we simulate transmission of a vaccine-preventable SEIR infection through a random, static contact network. Individuals choose whether to vaccinate based on infection risks from neighbors, and based on vaccine risks. When neighborhood size is small, rational vaccinating behavior results in rapid containment of the infection through voluntary ring vaccination. As neighborhood size increases (while the average force of infection is held constant), a threshold is reached beyond which the infection can break through partially vaccinated rings, percolating through the whole population and resulting in considerable epidemic final sizes and a large number vaccinated. The former outcome represents convergence between individually and socially optimal outcomes, whereas the latter represents their divergence, as observed in most models of individual vaccinating behavior that assume homogeneous mixing. Similar effects are observed in an extended model using smallpox-specific natural history and transmissibility assumptions. This work illustrates the significant qualitative differences between behavior-infection dynamics in discrete contact-structured populations versus continuous unstructured populations. This work also shows how disease eradicability in populations where voluntary vaccination is the primary control mechanism may depend partly on whether the disease is transmissible only to a few close social contacts or to a larger subset of the population.

An analytical approach to top predator interference on the dynamics of a food chain model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senthamarai, R.; Vijayalakshmi, T.

2018-04-01

In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study of top predator interference on the dynamics of a food chain model. The mathematical model is formulated using the system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In this model, there are three state dimensionless variables, viz, size of prey population x, size of intermediate predator y and size of top predator population z. The analytical results are compared with the numerical simulation using MATLAB software and satisfactory results are noticed.

Mixture models for estimating the size of a closed population when capture rates vary among individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.; Royle, J. Andrew

2003-01-01

We develop a parameterization of the beta-binomial mixture that provides sensible inferences about the size of a closed population when probabilities of capture or detection vary among individuals. Three classes of mixture models (beta-binomial, logistic-normal, and latent-class) are fitted to recaptures of snowshoe hares for estimating abundance and to counts of bird species for estimating species richness. In both sets of data, rates of detection appear to vary more among individuals (animals or species) than among sampling occasions or locations. The estimates of population size and species richness are sensitive to model-specific assumptions about the latent distribution of individual rates of detection. We demonstrate using simulation experiments that conventional diagnostics for assessing model adequacy, such as deviance, cannot be relied on for selecting classes of mixture models that produce valid inferences about population size. Prior knowledge about sources of individual heterogeneity in detection rates, if available, should be used to help select among classes of mixture models that are to be used for inference.

Improvement of Predictive Ability by Uniform Coverage of the Target Genetic Space

PubMed Central

Bustos-Korts, Daniela; Malosetti, Marcos; Chapman, Scott; Biddulph, Ben; van Eeuwijk, Fred

2016-01-01

Genome-enabled prediction provides breeders with the means to increase the number of genotypes that can be evaluated for selection. One of the major challenges in genome-enabled prediction is how to construct a training set of genotypes from a calibration set that represents the target population of genotypes, where the calibration set is composed of a training and validation set. A random sampling protocol of genotypes from the calibration set will lead to low quality coverage of the total genetic space by the training set when the calibration set contains population structure. As a consequence, predictive ability will be affected negatively, because some parts of the genotypic diversity in the target population will be under-represented in the training set, whereas other parts will be over-represented. Therefore, we propose a training set construction method that uniformly samples the genetic space spanned by the target population of genotypes, thereby increasing predictive ability. To evaluate our method, we constructed training sets alongside with the identification of corresponding genomic prediction models for four genotype panels that differed in the amount of population structure they contained (maize Flint, maize Dent, wheat, and rice). Training sets were constructed using uniform sampling, stratified-uniform sampling, stratified sampling and random sampling. We compared these methods with a method that maximizes the generalized coefficient of determination (CD). Several training set sizes were considered. We investigated four genomic prediction models: multi-locus QTL models, GBLUP models, combinations of QTL and GBLUPs, and Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) models. For the maize and wheat panels, construction of the training set under uniform sampling led to a larger predictive ability than under stratified and random sampling. The results of our methods were similar to those of the CD method. For the rice panel, all training set construction methods led to similar predictive ability, a reflection of the very strong population structure in this panel. PMID:27672112

Evaluating the Influence of the Microsatellite Marker Set on the Genetic Structure Inferred in Pyrus communis L.

PubMed Central

Urrestarazu, Jorge; Royo, José B.; Santesteban, Luis G.; Miranda, Carlos

2015-01-01

Fingerprinting information can be used to elucidate in a robust manner the genetic structure of germplasm collections, allowing a more rational and fine assessment of genetic resources. Bayesian model-based approaches are nowadays majorly preferred to infer genetic structure, but it is still largely unresolved how marker sets should be built in order to obtain a robust inference. The objective was to evaluate, in Pyrus germplasm collections, the influence of the SSR marker set size on the genetic structure inferred, also evaluating the influence of the criterion used to select those markers. Inferences were performed considering an increasing number of SSR markers that ranged from just two up to 25, incorporated one at a time into the analysis. The influence of the number of SSR markers used was evaluated comparing the number of populations and the strength of the signal detected, and also the similarity of the genotype assignments to populations between analyses. In order to test if those results were influenced by the criterion used to select the SSRs, several choosing scenarios based on the discrimination power or the fixation index values of the SSRs were tested. Our results indicate that population structure could be inferred accurately once a certain SSR number threshold was reached, which depended on the underlying structure within the genotypes, but the method used to select the markers included on each set appeared not to be very relevant. The minimum number of SSRs required to provide robust structure inferences and adequate measurements of the differentiation, even when low differentiation levels exist within populations, was proved similar to that of the complete list of recommended markers for fingerprinting. When a SSR set size similar to the minimum marker sets recommended for fingerprinting it is used, only major divisions or moderate (F ST>0.05) differentiation of the germplasm are detected. PMID:26382618

Modelling emergence of oscillations in communicating bacteria: a structured approach from one to many cells

PubMed Central

Mina, Petros; di Bernardo, Mario; Savery, Nigel J.; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira

2013-01-01

Population-level measurements of phenotypic behaviour in biological systems may not necessarily reflect individual cell behaviour. To assess qualitative changes in the behaviour of a single cell, when alone and when part of a community, we developed an agent-based model describing the metabolic states of a population of quorum-coupled cells. The modelling is motivated by published experimental work of a synthetic genetic regulatory network (GRN) used in Escherichia coli cells that exhibit oscillatory behaviour across the population. To decipher the mechanisms underlying oscillations in the system, we investigate the behaviour of the model via numerical simulation and bifurcation analysis. In particular, we study the effect of an increase in population size as well as the spatio-temporal behaviour of the model. Our results demonstrate that oscillations are possible only in the presence of a high concentration of the coupling chemical and are due to a time scale separation in key regulatory components of the system. The model suggests that the population establishes oscillatory behaviour as the system's preferred stable state. This is achieved via an effective increase in coupling across the population. We conclude that population effects in GRN design need to be taken into consideration and be part of the design process. This is important in planning intervention strategies or designing specific cell behaviours. PMID:23135248

Modelling emergence of oscillations in communicating bacteria: a structured approach from one to many cells.

PubMed

Mina, Petros; di Bernardo, Mario; Savery, Nigel J; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira

2013-01-06

Population-level measurements of phenotypic behaviour in biological systems may not necessarily reflect individual cell behaviour. To assess qualitative changes in the behaviour of a single cell, when alone and when part of a community, we developed an agent-based model describing the metabolic states of a population of quorum-coupled cells. The modelling is motivated by published experimental work of a synthetic genetic regulatory network (GRN) used in Escherichia coli cells that exhibit oscillatory behaviour across the population. To decipher the mechanisms underlying oscillations in the system, we investigate the behaviour of the model via numerical simulation and bifurcation analysis. In particular, we study the effect of an increase in population size as well as the spatio-temporal behaviour of the model. Our results demonstrate that oscillations are possible only in the presence of a high concentration of the coupling chemical and are due to a time scale separation in key regulatory components of the system. The model suggests that the population establishes oscillatory behaviour as the system's preferred stable state. This is achieved via an effective increase in coupling across the population. We conclude that population effects in GRN design need to be taken into consideration and be part of the design process. This is important in planning intervention strategies or designing specific cell behaviours.

Family physician clinical compensation in an academic environment: moving away from the relative value unit

PubMed Central

Lochner, Jennifer; Trowbridge, Elizabeth; Kamnetz, Sandra; Pandhi, Nancy

2016-01-01

Background and Objectives Primary care physician compensation structures have remained largely volume-based, lagging behind changes in reimbursement that increasingly include population approaches such as capitation, bundled payments, and care management fees. We describe a population health-based physician compensation plan developed for two departmental family medicine faculty groups (residency teaching clinic faculty and community clinic faculty) along with outcomes before and after the plan’s implementation. Methods An observational study was conducted. A pre-post email survey assessed satisfaction with the plan, salary, and salary equity. Physician retention, panel size, and relative value unit (RVU) productivity metrics also were assessed before and after the plan’s implementation. Results Before implementation of the new plan, 18% of residency faculty and 33% of community faculty were satisfied or very satisfied with compensation structure. After implementation, those numbers rose to 47% for residency physicians and 74% for community physicians (p<0.01). Satisfaction with the amount of compensation also rose from 33% to 68% for residency faculty and from 26% to 87% for community faculty (p<0.01). For both groups, panel size per clinical full-time equivalent increased and RVUs moved closer to national benchmarks. RVUs decreased for residency faculty and increased for community faculty. Conclusions Aligning a compensation plan with population health delivery by moving rewards away from RVU productivity and towards panel management resulted in improved physician satisfaction and retention, as well as larger panel sizes. RVU changes were less predictable. Physician compensation is an important component of care model redesign that emphasizes population health. PMID:27272423

Dynamic regimes of local homogeneous population model with time lag

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neverova, Galina; Frisman, Efim

We investigated Moran - Ricker model with time lag 1. It is made analytical and numerical study of the model. It is shown there is co-existence of various dynamic regimes under the same values of parameters. The model simultaneously possesses several different limit regimes: stable state, periodic fluctuations, and chaotic attractor. The research results show if present population size substantially depends on population number of previous year then it is observed quasi-periodic oscillations. Fluctuations with period 2 occur when the growth of population size is regulated by density dependence in the current year.

Population structure of resident, immigrant, and swimming Corophium volutator (Amphipoda) on an intertidal mudflat in the Bay of Fundy, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drolet, David; Barbeau, Myriam A.

2012-05-01

Spatial variation in biotic and abiotic conditions, and differences in dispersive behavior of different life history stages can result in the formation of zones with different demography for infaunal and epifaunal species within vast intertidal flats. In this study, we evaluated within-mudflat homogeneity of the infaunal amphipod Corophium volutator found in the mud (residents), colonizing artificially disturbed areas (immigrants), and caught in the water column (swimmers) on a large mudflat in the upper Bay of Fundy, Canada. Densities of residents, immigrants, and swimmers were well structured in space (both along and across shore). Occasionally, significant differences in size structure, sex ratio, and proportion of ovigerous females were found at different intertidal levels, but these were short-lived. Comparisons of size and sex structure of residents, immigrants, and swimmers revealed occasional marked differences, with small juveniles and large adult males moving most. However, this size-bias in movement did not translate into zones with different population dynamics, suggesting that ample dispersal, through swimming and drifting in the water column, homogenized the population and masked potential effects of variation in environmental conditions. We therefore conclude that the mudflat represents one homogeneous population.

Effects of long-term changes in the benthic community on yellow perch in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.; Diana, James S.; Haas, Robert C.

2000-01-01

Abundance, mortality, age and growth, food habits, and energetics of a yellow perch Perca flavescens population were investigated in eutrophic Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron during May to October, 1986 to 1988, and compared population characteristics with historical data from times when eutrophic conditions were less severe. During 1986 to 1988, yellow perch were abundant, but grew slowly and experienced high natural mortality. A size threshold was present at 150 to 180 mm beyond which few individuals survived, and sex ratios became biased toward males. An energetic model suggested that yellow perch were food limited; as they increased in size they spent a greater proportion of the growing season near maintenance ration. Low feeding rates were a consequence of subsistence on small chironomid larvae. Piscivory provided little energetic relief. Historical data suggested that availability of large benthic prey such as nymphs of the burrowing mayfly Hexagenia was important to yellow perch. Yellow perch formerly consumed Hexagenia, but mayflies were extirpated from Saginaw Bay during 1953 to 1965, and never recovered. When Hexagenia was present, yellow perch growth was moderate to fast depending on population size, size thresholds were not present, and yellow perch reached large size and older age despite moderate to high fishing mortality. Decreases in yellow perch growth rates during 1952 to 1955 coincided with extirpation of Hexagenia. Fast growth of yellow perch did occur after Hexagenia became extirpated, but only when fishing mortality was high, population size was small, and some large benthic invertebrates remained. Eutrophication of Saginaw Bay appeared to affect yellow perch by changing species composition and reducing size structure of the benthic community.

Population Response to Habitat Fragmentation in a Stream-Dwelling Brook Trout Population

PubMed Central

Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Coombs, Jason A.; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Dubreuil, Todd L.

2007-01-01

Fragmentation can strongly influence population persistence and expression of life-history strategies in spatially-structured populations. In this study, we directly estimated size-specific dispersal, growth, and survival of stream-dwelling brook trout in a stream network with connected and naturally-isolated tributaries. We used multiple-generation, individual-based data to develop and parameterize a size-class and location-based population projection model, allowing us to test effects of fragmentation on population dynamics at local (i.e., subpopulation) and system-wide (i.e., metapopulation) scales, and to identify demographic rates which influence the persistence of isolated and fragmented populations. In the naturally-isolated tributary, persistence was associated with higher early juvenile survival (∼45% greater), shorter generation time (one-half) and strong selection against large body size compared to the open system, resulting in a stage-distribution skewed towards younger, smaller fish. Simulating barriers to upstream migration into two currently-connected tributary populations caused rapid (2–6 generations) local extinction. These local extinctions in turn increased the likelihood of system-wide extinction, as tributaries could no longer function as population sources. Extinction could be prevented in the open system if sufficient immigrants from downstream areas were available, but the influx of individuals necessary to counteract fragmentation effects was high (7–46% of the total population annually). In the absence of sufficient immigration, a demographic change (higher early survival characteristic of the isolated tributary) was also sufficient to rescue the population from fragmentation, suggesting that the observed differences in size distributions between the naturally-isolated and open system may reflect an evolutionary response to isolation. Combined with strong genetic divergence between the isolated tributary and open system, these results suggest that local adaptation can ‘rescue’ isolated populations, particularly in one-dimensional stream networks where both natural and anthropogenically-mediated isolation is common. However, whether rescue will occur before extinction depends critically on the race between adaptation and reduced survival in response to fragmentation. PMID:18188404

Population response to habitat fragmentation in a stream-dwelling brook trout population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.; Coombs, J.A.; O'Donnell, M. J.; Dubreuil, T.L.

2007-01-01

Fragmentation can strongly influence population persistence and expression of life-history strategies in spatially-structured populations. In this study, we directly estimated size-specific dispersal, growth, and survival of stream-dwelling brook trout in a stream network with connected and naturally-isolated tributaries. We used multiple-generation, individual-based data to develop and parameterize a size-class and location-based population projection model, allowing us to test effects of fragmentation on population dynamics at local (i.e., subpopulation) and system-wide (i.e., metapopulation) scales, and to identify demographic rates which influence the persistence of isolated and fragmented populations. In the naturally-isolated tributary, persistence was associated with higher early juvenile survival (-45% greater), shorter generation time (one-half) and strong selection against large body size compared to the open system, resulting in a stage-distribution skewed towards younger, smaller fish. Simulating barriers to upstream migration into two currently-connected tribuory populations caused rapid (2-6 generations) local extinction. These local extinctions in turn increased the likelihood of system-wide extinction, as tributaries could no longer function as population sources. Extinction could be prevented in the open system if sufficient immigrants from downstream areas were available, but the influx of individuals necessary to counteract fragmentation effects was high (7-46% of the total population annually). In the absence of sufficient immigration, a demographic change (higher early survival characteristic of the isolated tributary) was also sufficient to rescue the population from fragmentation, suggesting that the observed differences in size distributions between the naturally-isolated and open system may reflect an evolutionary response to isolation. Combined with strong genetic divergence between the isolated tributary and open system, these results suggest that local adaptation can 'rescue' isolated populations, particularly in one-dimensional stream networks where both natural and anthropegenically-mediated isolation is common. However, whether rescue will occur before extinction depends critically on the race between adaptation and reduced survival in response to fragmentation.

Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs.

PubMed

Springer, Andrea; Kappeler, Peter M; Nunn, Charles L

2017-05-01

Social networks provide an established tool to implement heterogeneous contact structures in epidemiological models. Dynamic temporal changes in contact structure and ranging behaviour of wildlife may impact disease dynamics. A consensus has yet to emerge, however, concerning the conditions in which network dynamics impact model outcomes, as compared to static approximations that average contact rates over longer time periods. Furthermore, as many pathogens can be transmitted both environmentally and via close contact, it is important to investigate the relative influence of both transmission routes in real-world populations. Here, we use empirically derived networks from a population of wild primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi), and simulated networks to investigate pathogen spread in dynamic vs. static social networks. First, we constructed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model of Cryptosporidium spread in wild Verreaux's sifakas. We incorporated social and environmental transmission routes and parameterized the model for two different climatic seasons. Second, we used simulated networks and greater variation in epidemiological parameters to investigate the conditions in which dynamic networks produce larger outbreak sizes than static networks. We found that average outbreak size of Cryptosporidium infections in sifakas was larger when the disease was introduced in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by an increase in home range overlap towards the end of the dry season. Regardless of season, dynamic networks always produced larger average outbreak sizes than static networks. Larger outbreaks in dynamic models based on simulated networks occurred especially when the probability of transmission and recovery were low. Variation in tie strength in the dynamic networks also had a major impact on outbreak size, while network modularity had a weaker influence than epidemiological parameters that determine transmission and recovery. Our study adds to emerging evidence that dynamic networks can change predictions of disease dynamics, especially if the disease shows low transmissibility and a long infectious period, and when environmental conditions lead to enhanced between-group contact after an infectious agent has been introduced. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Extinction-effective population index: incorporating life-history variations in population viability analysis.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Masami

2007-09-01

Viability status of populations is a commonly used measure for decision-making in the management of populations. One of the challenges faced by managers is the need to consistently allocate management effort among populations. This allocation should in part be based on comparison of extinction risks among populations. Unfortunately, common criteria that use minimum viable population size or count-based population viability analysis (PVA) often do not provide results that are comparable among populations, primarily because they lack consistency in determining population size measures and threshold levels of population size (e.g., minimum viable population size and quasi-extinction threshold). Here I introduce a new index called the "extinction-effective population index," which accounts for differential effects of demographic stochasticity among organisms with different life-history strategies and among individuals in different life stages. This index is expected to become a new way of determining minimum viable population size criteria and also complement the count-based PVA. The index accounts for the difference in life-history strategies of organisms, which are modeled using matrix population models. The extinction-effective population index, sensitivity, and elasticity are demonstrated in three species of Pacific salmonids. The interpretation of the index is also provided by comparing them with existing demographic indices. Finally, a measure of life-history-specific effect of demographic stochasticity is derived.

Settlement-Size Scaling among Prehistoric Hunter-Gatherer Settlement Systems in the New World

PubMed Central

Haas, W. Randall; Klink, Cynthia J.; Maggard, Greg J.; Aldenderfer, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Settlement size predicts extreme variation in the rates and magnitudes of many social and ecological processes in human societies. Yet, the factors that drive human settlement-size variation remain poorly understood. Size variation among economically integrated settlements tends to be heavy tailed such that the smallest settlements are extremely common and the largest settlements extremely large and rare. The upper tail of this size distribution is often formalized mathematically as a power-law function. Explanations for this scaling structure in human settlement systems tend to emphasize complex socioeconomic processes including agriculture, manufacturing, and warfare—behaviors that tend to differentially nucleate and disperse populations hierarchically among settlements. But, the degree to which heavy-tailed settlement-size variation requires such complex behaviors remains unclear. By examining the settlement patterns of eight prehistoric New World hunter-gatherer settlement systems spanning three distinct environmental contexts, this analysis explores the degree to which heavy-tailed settlement-size scaling depends on the aforementioned socioeconomic complexities. Surprisingly, the analysis finds that power-law models offer plausible and parsimonious statistical descriptions of prehistoric hunter-gatherer settlement-size variation. This finding reveals that incipient forms of hierarchical settlement structure may have preceded socioeconomic complexity in human societies and points to a need for additional research to explicate how mobile foragers came to exhibit settlement patterns that are more commonly associated with hierarchical organization. We propose that hunter-gatherer mobility with preferential attachment to previously occupied locations may account for the observed structure in site-size variation. PMID:26536241

Quantifying and Mitigating the Effect of Preferential Sampling on Phylodynamic Inference

PubMed Central

Karcher, Michael D.; Palacios, Julia A.; Bedford, Trevor; Suchard, Marc A.; Minin, Vladimir N.

2016-01-01

Phylodynamics seeks to estimate effective population size fluctuations from molecular sequences of individuals sampled from a population of interest. One way to accomplish this task formulates an observed sequence data likelihood exploiting a coalescent model for the sampled individuals’ genealogy and then integrating over all possible genealogies via Monte Carlo or, less efficiently, by conditioning on one genealogy estimated from the sequence data. However, when analyzing sequences sampled serially through time, current methods implicitly assume either that sampling times are fixed deterministically by the data collection protocol or that their distribution does not depend on the size of the population. Through simulation, we first show that, when sampling times do probabilistically depend on effective population size, estimation methods may be systematically biased. To correct for this deficiency, we propose a new model that explicitly accounts for preferential sampling by modeling the sampling times as an inhomogeneous Poisson process dependent on effective population size. We demonstrate that in the presence of preferential sampling our new model not only reduces bias, but also improves estimation precision. Finally, we compare the performance of the currently used phylodynamic methods with our proposed model through clinically-relevant, seasonal human influenza examples. PMID:26938243

Effects of structural complexity enhancement on eastern red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) populations in northern hardwood forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenny, H.C.; Keeton, W.S.; Donovan, T.M.

2006-01-01

Managing for stand structural complexity in northern hardwood forests has been proposed as a method for promoting microhabitat characteristics important to eastern red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus). We evaluated the effects of alternate, structure-based silvicultural systems on red-backed salamander populations at two research sites in northwestern Vermont. Treatments included two uneven-aged approaches (single-tree selection and group-selection) and one unconventional approach, termed "structural complexity enhancement" (SCE), that promotes development of late-successional structure, including elevated levels of coarse woody debris (CWD). Treatments were applied to 2 ha units and were replicated two to four times depending on treatment. We surveyed red-backed salamanders with a natural cover search method of transects nested within vegetation plots 1 year after logging. Abundance estimates corrected for detection probability were calculated from survey data with a binomial mixture model. Abundance estimates differed between study areas and were influenced by forest structural characteristics. Model selection was conducted using Akaike Information Criteria, corrected for over-dispersed data and small sample size (QAICc). We found no difference in abundance as a response to treatment as a whole, suggesting that all of the uneven-aged silvicultural systems evaluated can maintain salamander populations after harvest. However, abundance was tied to specific structural habitat attributes associated with study plots within treatments. The most parsimonious model of habitat covariates included site, relative density of overstory trees, and density of more-decayed and less-decayed downed CWD. Abundance responded positively to the density of downed, well-decayed CWD and negatively to the density of poorly decayed CWD and to overstory relative density. CWD volume was not a strong predictor of salamander abundance. We conclude that structural complexity enhancement and the two uneven-aged approaches maintained important microhabitat characteristics for red-backed salamander populations in the short term. Over the long-term, given decay processes as a determinant of biological availability, forestry practices such as SCE that enhance CWD availability and recruitment may result in associated population responses. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New Nuclear SNP Markers Unravel the Genetic Structure and Effective Population Size of Albacore Tuna (Thunnus alalunga).

PubMed

Laconcha, Urtzi; Iriondo, Mikel; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Manzano, Carmen; Markaide, Pablo; Montes, Iratxe; Zarraonaindia, Iratxe; Velado, Igor; Bilbao, Eider; Goñi, Nicolas; Santiago, Josu; Domingo, Andrés; Karakulak, Saadet; Oray, Işık; Estonba, Andone

2015-01-01

In the present study we have investigated the population genetic structure of albacore (Thunnus alalunga, Bonnaterre 1788) and assessed the loss of genetic diversity, likely due to overfishing, of albacore population in the North Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, 1,331 individuals from 26 worldwide locations were analyzed by genotyping 75 novel nuclear SNPs. Our results indicated the existence of four genetically homogeneous populations delimited within the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Current definition of stocks allows the sustainable management of albacore since no stock includes more than one genetic entity. In addition, short- and long-term effective population sizes were estimated for the North Atlantic Ocean albacore population, and results showed no historical decline for this population. Therefore, the genetic diversity and, consequently, the adaptive potential of this population have not been significantly affected by overfishing.

New Nuclear SNP Markers Unravel the Genetic Structure and Effective Population Size of Albacore Tuna (Thunnus alalunga)

PubMed Central

Laconcha, Urtzi; Iriondo, Mikel; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Manzano, Carmen; Markaide, Pablo; Montes, Iratxe; Zarraonaindia, Iratxe; Velado, Igor; Bilbao, Eider; Goñi, Nicolas; Santiago, Josu; Domingo, Andrés; Karakulak, Saadet; Oray, Işık; Estonba, Andone

2015-01-01

In the present study we have investigated the population genetic structure of albacore (Thunnus alalunga, Bonnaterre 1788) and assessed the loss of genetic diversity, likely due to overfishing, of albacore population in the North Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, 1,331 individuals from 26 worldwide locations were analyzed by genotyping 75 novel nuclear SNPs. Our results indicated the existence of four genetically homogeneous populations delimited within the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Current definition of stocks allows the sustainable management of albacore since no stock includes more than one genetic entity. In addition, short- and long-term effective population sizes were estimated for the North Atlantic Ocean albacore population, and results showed no historical decline for this population. Therefore, the genetic diversity and, consequently, the adaptive potential of this population have not been significantly affected by overfishing. PMID:26090851

Genetic signals of past demographic changes and the history of oak populations in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodd, R. S.

2009-04-01

A retrospective view of species' demographic changes can inform on population stability through times of climatic change and the origins and spatial structure of genetic diversity in contemporary populations. The former provides the means to predict responses to future climatic change, while the latter allows us to infer the ability of populations to buffer the effects of reductions in population size and fragmentation. The approximately 1.8 my of the Pleistocene is believed to have had a significant impact on diversity through high rates of extinction during early glacial cycles and population expansions and contractions during the later cycles. In the Mediterranean basin, early emphasis on taxa with wide latitudinal ranges led to models of refugial sites and subsequent recolonization routes that could explain geographic patterns in genetic diversity, with a trend towards reduced genetic diversity in the north. More recently, the study of strictly Mediterranean taxa has revealed relictual sites that have persisted over very long periods of time, commonly relatively poor in diversity, but populations well differentiated from one site to another. In California, relatively little is known of the population dynamics of plant taxa during the Pleistocene glacial cycles, or to what extent differentiation today is a result of pre-Pleistocene events. For several animal taxa, differentiation between Coastal and Sierran taxa are believed to date to the Pliocene. Major demographic changes resulting in population isolation, bottlenecks, founder events and population expansions leave a genetic signal that can be detected through appropriate genetic markers and analyses. Such signals help to infer whether past climate fluctuations have had important effects on population demographics. Here, I will focus on key oak species of the California mediterranean climate zone. I will explore the likely effects of the last glacial maximum on oak populations using palaeoclimate and niche modeling together with analyses of population genetic structure. One of the major questions that will be addressed is whether populations have persisted over long periods of time and if the contemporary population structure has derived from events earlier than the Pleistocene. Population genetic structure will then be used to propose strategies that will optimize conservation of genetic resources.

Reduced Genetic Diversity and Increased Structure in American Mink on the Swedish Coast following Invasive Species Control.

PubMed

Zalewski, Andrzej; Zalewska, Hanna; Lunneryd, Sven-Gunnar; André, Carl; Mikusiński, Grzegorz

2016-01-01

Eradication and population reductions are often used to mitigate the negative impacts of non-native invasive species on native biodiversity. However, monitoring the effectiveness of non-native species control programmes is necessary to evaluate the efficacy of these measures. Genetic monitoring could provide valuable insights into temporal changes in demographic, ecological, and evolutionary processes in invasive populations being subject to control programmes. Such programmes should cause a decrease in effective population size and/or in genetic diversity of the targeted non-native species and an increase in population genetic structuring over time. We used microsatellite DNA data from American mink (Neovison vison) to determine whether the removal of this predator on the Koster Islands archipelago and the nearby Swedish mainland affected genetic variation over six consecutive years of mink culling by trappers as part of a population control programme. We found that on Koster Islands allelic richness decreased (from on average 4.53 to 3.55), genetic structuring increased, and effective population size did not change. In contrast, the mink population from the Swedish coast showed no changes in genetic diversity or structure, suggesting the stability of this population over 6 years of culling. Effective population size did not change over time but was higher on the coast than on the islands across all years. Migration rates from the islands to the coast were almost two times higher than from the coast to the islands. Most migrants leaving the coast were localised on the southern edge of the archipelago, as expected from the direction of the sea current between the two sites. Genetic monitoring provided valuable information on temporal changes in the population of American mink suggesting that this approach can be used to evaluate and improve control programmes of invasive vertebrates.

The Variation of Planetary Surfaces' Structure and Size Distribution with Depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charalambous, C. A.; Pike, W. T.

2014-12-01

The particle, rock and boulder size distribution of a planetary surface bring important implications not only to crucial aspects of future missions but also to the better understanding of planetary and earth sciences. By exploiting a novel statistical model, the evolution of particle fragmentation phenomena can be understood in terms of a descriptive maturity index, a measure of the number of fragmentation events that have produced the soil. This statistical model, which is mathematically constructed via fundamental physical principles, has been validated by terrestrial mineral grinding data and impact experiments. Applying the model to planetary surfaces, the number of fragmentation events is determined by production function curves that quantify the degree of impact cratering. The model quantifies the variation of the maturity index of the regolith with depth, with a high maturity index at the surface decreasing to a low index corresponding to the megaregolith of a blocky population and fractured bedrock. The measured lunar and martian particle size distributions at the surface is well matched by the model over several orders of magnitude. The continuous transition invoked by the model can be furthermore synthesised to provide temporal and spatial visualisations of the internal architecture of the Martian and Lunar regolith. Finally, the model is applied to the risk assessment and success criteria of future mission landings as well as drilling on planetary surfaces. The solutions to a variety of planetary fragmentation related problems can be found via exact mathematical foundations or through simulations using the particle population provided by the model's maturation.

Plasma asymmetric dimethylarginine, L-arginine and Left Ventricular Structure and Function in a Community-based Sample

PubMed Central

Lieb, Wolfgang; Benndorf, Ralf A.; Benjamin, Emelia J.; Sullivan, Lisa M.; Maas, Renke; Xanthakis, Vanessa; Schwedhelm, Edzard; Aragam, Jayashri; Schulze, Friedrich; Böger, Rainer H.; Vasan, Ramachandran S.

2009-01-01

Objective Increasing evidence indicates that cardiac structure and function are modulated by the nitric oxide (NO) system. Elevated plasma concentrations of asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA; a competitive inhibitor of NO synthase) have been reported in patients with end-stage renal disease. It is unclear if circulating ADMA and L-arginine levels are related to cardiac structure and function in the general population. Methods We related plasma ADMA and L-Arginine (the amino acid precursor of NO) to echocardiographic left ventricular (LV) mass, left atrial (LA) size and fractional shortening (FS) using multivariable linear regression analyses in 1,919 Framingham Offspring Study participants (mean age 57 years, 58 % women). Results Overall, neither ADMA or L-arginine, nor their ratio was associated with LV mass, LA size and FS in multivariable models (p>0.10 for all). However, we observed effect modification by obesity of the relations of ADMA and LA size (p for interaction p=0.04): ADMA was positively related to LA size in obese individuals (adjusted-p=0.0004 for trend across ADMA quartiles) but not in non-obese people. Conclusion In our large community-based sample, plasma ADMA and L-arginine concentrations were not related to cardiac structure or function. The observation of positive relations of LA size and ADMA in obese individuals warrants confirmation. PMID:18829028

The genetic structure of Nautilus pompilius populations surrounding Australia and the Philippines.

PubMed

Williams, Rachel C; Jackson, Benjamin C; Duvaux, Ludovic; Dawson, Deborah A; Burke, Terry; Sinclair, William

2015-07-01

Understanding the distribution of genetic diversity in exploited species is fundamental to successful conservation. Genetic structure and the degree of gene flow among populations must be assessed to design appropriate strategies to prevent the loss of distinct populations. The cephalopod Nautilus pompilius is fished unsustainably in the Philippines for the ornamental shell trade and has limited legislative protection, despite the species' recent dramatic decline in the region. Here, we use 14 microsatellite markers to evaluate the population structure of N. pompilius around Australia and the Philippines. Despite their relative geographical proximity, Great Barrier Reef individuals are genetically isolated from Osprey Reef and Shark Reef in the Coral Sea (FST  = 0.312, 0.229, respectively). Conversely, despite the larger geographical distances between the Philippines and west Australian reefs, samples display a small degree of genetic structure (FST  = 0.015). Demographic scenarios modelled using approximate Bayesian computation analysis indicate that this limited divergence is not due to contemporary gene flow between the Philippines and west Australia. Instead, present-day genetic similarity can be explained by very limited genetic drift that has occurred due to large average effective population sizes that persisted at both locations following their separation. The lack of connectivity among populations suggests that immigrants from west Australia would not facilitate natural recolonization if Philippine populations were fished to extinction. These data help to rectify the paucity of information on the species' biology currently inhibiting their conservation classification. Understanding population structure can allow us to facilitate sustainable harvesting, thereby preserving the diversity of genetically distinct stocks. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fishing and temperature effects on the size structure of exploited fish stocks.

PubMed

Tu, Chen-Yi; Chen, Kuan-Ting; Hsieh, Chih-Hao

2018-05-08

Size structure of fish stock plays an important role in maintaining sustainability of the population. Size distribution of an exploited stock is predicted to shift toward small individuals caused by size-selective fishing and/or warming; however, their relative contribution remains relatively unexplored. In addition, existing analyses on size structure have focused on univariate size-based indicators (SBIs), such as mean length, evenness of size classes, or the upper 95-percentile of the length frequency distribution; these approaches may not capture full information of size structure. To bridge the gap, we used the variation partitioning approach to examine how the size structure (composition of size classes) responded to fishing, warming and the interaction. We analyzed 28 exploited stocks in the West US, Alaska and North Sea. Our result shows fishing has the most prominent effect on the size structure of the exploited stocks. In addition, the fish stocks experienced higher variability in fishing is more responsive to the temperature effect in their size structure, suggesting that fishing may elevate the sensitivity of exploited stocks in responding to environmental effects. The variation partitioning approach provides complementary information to univariate SBIs in analyzing size structure.

Dynamics of a stochastic tuberculosis model with constant recruitment and varying total population size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Shi, Ningzhong; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed

2017-03-01

In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for a tuberculosis model with constant recruitment and varying total population size by incorporating stochastic perturbations. By constructing suitable stochastic Lyapunov functions, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution as well as extinction of the disease to the stochastic system.

A Probabilistic Model for Hydrokinetic Turbine Collision Risks: Exploring Impacts on Fish

PubMed Central

Hammar, Linus; Eggertsen, Linda; Andersson, Sandra; Ehnberg, Jimmy; Arvidsson, Rickard; Gullström, Martin; Molander, Sverker

2015-01-01

A variety of hydrokinetic turbines are currently under development for power generation in rivers, tidal straits and ocean currents. Because some of these turbines are large, with rapidly moving rotor blades, the risk of collision with aquatic animals has been brought to attention. The behavior and fate of animals that approach such large hydrokinetic turbines have not yet been monitored at any detail. In this paper, we conduct a synthesis of the current knowledge and understanding of hydrokinetic turbine collision risks. The outcome is a generic fault tree based probabilistic model suitable for estimating population-level ecological risks. New video-based data on fish behavior in strong currents are provided and models describing fish avoidance behaviors are presented. The findings indicate low risk for small-sized fish. However, at large turbines (≥5 m), bigger fish seem to have high probability of collision, mostly because rotor detection and avoidance is difficult in low visibility. Risks can therefore be substantial for vulnerable populations of large-sized fish, which thrive in strong currents. The suggested collision risk model can be applied to different turbine designs and at a variety of locations as basis for case-specific risk assessments. The structure of the model facilitates successive model validation, refinement and application to other organism groups such as marine mammals. PMID:25730314

A probabilistic model for hydrokinetic turbine collision risks: exploring impacts on fish.

PubMed

Hammar, Linus; Eggertsen, Linda; Andersson, Sandra; Ehnberg, Jimmy; Arvidsson, Rickard; Gullström, Martin; Molander, Sverker

2015-01-01

A variety of hydrokinetic turbines are currently under development for power generation in rivers, tidal straits and ocean currents. Because some of these turbines are large, with rapidly moving rotor blades, the risk of collision with aquatic animals has been brought to attention. The behavior and fate of animals that approach such large hydrokinetic turbines have not yet been monitored at any detail. In this paper, we conduct a synthesis of the current knowledge and understanding of hydrokinetic turbine collision risks. The outcome is a generic fault tree based probabilistic model suitable for estimating population-level ecological risks. New video-based data on fish behavior in strong currents are provided and models describing fish avoidance behaviors are presented. The findings indicate low risk for small-sized fish. However, at large turbines (≥5 m), bigger fish seem to have high probability of collision, mostly because rotor detection and avoidance is difficult in low visibility. Risks can therefore be substantial for vulnerable populations of large-sized fish, which thrive in strong currents. The suggested collision risk model can be applied to different turbine designs and at a variety of locations as basis for case-specific risk assessments. The structure of the model facilitates successive model validation, refinement and application to other organism groups such as marine mammals.

Genetic structure and natal origins of immature hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) in Brazilian waters.

PubMed

Proietti, Maira C; Reisser, Julia; Marins, Luis Fernando; Rodriguez-Zarate, Clara; Marcovaldi, Maria A; Monteiro, Danielle S; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Secchi, Eduardo R

2014-01-01

Understanding the connections between sea turtle populations is fundamental for their effective conservation. Brazil hosts important hawksbill feeding areas, but few studies have focused on how they connect with nesting populations in the Atlantic. Here, we (1) characterized mitochondrial DNA control region haplotypes of immature hawksbills feeding along the coast of Brazil (five areas ranging from equatorial to temperate latitudes, 157 skin samples), (2) analyzed genetic structure among Atlantic hawksbill feeding populations, and (3) inferred natal origins of hawksbills in Brazilian waters using genetic, oceanographic, and population size information. We report ten haplotypes for the sampled Brazilian sites, most of which were previously observed at other Atlantic feeding grounds and rookeries. Genetic profiles of Brazilian feeding areas were significantly different from those in other regions (Caribbean and Africa), and a significant structure was observed between Brazilian feeding grounds grouped into areas influenced by the South Equatorial/North Brazil Current and those influenced by the Brazil Current. Our genetic analysis estimates that the studied Brazilian feeding aggregations are mostly composed of animals originating from the domestic rookeries Bahia and Pipa, but some contributions from African and Caribbean rookeries were also observed. Oceanographic data corroborated the local origins, but showed higher connection with West Africa and none with the Caribbean. High correlation was observed between origins estimated through genetics/rookery size and oceanographic/rookery size data, demonstrating that ocean currents and population sizes influence haplotype distribution of Brazil's hawksbill populations. The information presented here highlights the importance of national conservation strategies and international cooperation for the recovery of endangered hawksbill turtle populations.

Genetic Structure and Natal Origins of Immature Hawksbill Turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) in Brazilian Waters

PubMed Central

Proietti, Maira C.; Reisser, Julia; Marins, Luis Fernando; Rodriguez-Zarate, Clara; Marcovaldi, Maria A.; Monteiro, Danielle S.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Secchi, Eduardo R.

2014-01-01

Understanding the connections between sea turtle populations is fundamental for their effective conservation. Brazil hosts important hawksbill feeding areas, but few studies have focused on how they connect with nesting populations in the Atlantic. Here, we (1) characterized mitochondrial DNA control region haplotypes of immature hawksbills feeding along the coast of Brazil (five areas ranging from equatorial to temperate latitudes, 157 skin samples), (2) analyzed genetic structure among Atlantic hawksbill feeding populations, and (3) inferred natal origins of hawksbills in Brazilian waters using genetic, oceanographic, and population size information. We report ten haplotypes for the sampled Brazilian sites, most of which were previously observed at other Atlantic feeding grounds and rookeries. Genetic profiles of Brazilian feeding areas were significantly different from those in other regions (Caribbean and Africa), and a significant structure was observed between Brazilian feeding grounds grouped into areas influenced by the South Equatorial/North Brazil Current and those influenced by the Brazil Current. Our genetic analysis estimates that the studied Brazilian feeding aggregations are mostly composed of animals originating from the domestic rookeries Bahia and Pipa, but some contributions from African and Caribbean rookeries were also observed. Oceanographic data corroborated the local origins, but showed higher connection with West Africa and none with the Caribbean. High correlation was observed between origins estimated through genetics/rookery size and oceanographic/rookery size data, demonstrating that ocean currents and population sizes influence haplotype distribution of Brazil's hawksbill populations. The information presented here highlights the importance of national conservation strategies and international cooperation for the recovery of endangered hawksbill turtle populations. PMID:24558419

DESCARTES' RULE OF SIGNS AND THE IDENTIFIABILITY OF POPULATION DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS FROM GENOMIC VARIATION DATA.

PubMed

Bhaskar, Anand; Song, Yun S

2014-01-01

The sample frequency spectrum (SFS) is a widely-used summary statistic of genomic variation in a sample of homologous DNA sequences. It provides a highly efficient dimensional reduction of large-scale population genomic data and its mathematical dependence on the underlying population demography is well understood, thus enabling the development of efficient inference algorithms. However, it has been recently shown that very different population demographies can actually generate the same SFS for arbitrarily large sample sizes. Although in principle this nonidentifiability issue poses a thorny challenge to statistical inference, the population size functions involved in the counterexamples are arguably not so biologically realistic. Here, we revisit this problem and examine the identifiability of demographic models under the restriction that the population sizes are piecewise-defined where each piece belongs to some family of biologically-motivated functions. Under this assumption, we prove that the expected SFS of a sample uniquely determines the underlying demographic model, provided that the sample is sufficiently large. We obtain a general bound on the sample size sufficient for identifiability; the bound depends on the number of pieces in the demographic model and also on the type of population size function in each piece. In the cases of piecewise-constant, piecewise-exponential and piecewise-generalized-exponential models, which are often assumed in population genomic inferences, we provide explicit formulas for the bounds as simple functions of the number of pieces. Lastly, we obtain analogous results for the "folded" SFS, which is often used when there is ambiguity as to which allelic type is ancestral. Our results are proved using a generalization of Descartes' rule of signs for polynomials to the Laplace transform of piecewise continuous functions.

DESCARTES’ RULE OF SIGNS AND THE IDENTIFIABILITY OF POPULATION DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS FROM GENOMIC VARIATION DATA1

PubMed Central

Bhaskar, Anand; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

The sample frequency spectrum (SFS) is a widely-used summary statistic of genomic variation in a sample of homologous DNA sequences. It provides a highly efficient dimensional reduction of large-scale population genomic data and its mathematical dependence on the underlying population demography is well understood, thus enabling the development of efficient inference algorithms. However, it has been recently shown that very different population demographies can actually generate the same SFS for arbitrarily large sample sizes. Although in principle this nonidentifiability issue poses a thorny challenge to statistical inference, the population size functions involved in the counterexamples are arguably not so biologically realistic. Here, we revisit this problem and examine the identifiability of demographic models under the restriction that the population sizes are piecewise-defined where each piece belongs to some family of biologically-motivated functions. Under this assumption, we prove that the expected SFS of a sample uniquely determines the underlying demographic model, provided that the sample is sufficiently large. We obtain a general bound on the sample size sufficient for identifiability; the bound depends on the number of pieces in the demographic model and also on the type of population size function in each piece. In the cases of piecewise-constant, piecewise-exponential and piecewise-generalized-exponential models, which are often assumed in population genomic inferences, we provide explicit formulas for the bounds as simple functions of the number of pieces. Lastly, we obtain analogous results for the “folded” SFS, which is often used when there is ambiguity as to which allelic type is ancestral. Our results are proved using a generalization of Descartes’ rule of signs for polynomials to the Laplace transform of piecewise continuous functions. PMID:28018011

Effects of YORP-induced rotational fission on the small size end of the Main Belt asteroid size distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Alessandro; Jacobson, S.; Marzari, F.; Scheeres, D.; Davis, D. R.

2013-10-01

From the results of a comprehensive asteroid population evolution model, we conclude that the YORP-induced rotational fission hypothesis has strong repercussions for the small size end of the Main Belt asteroid size frequency distribution. These results are consistent with observed asteroid population statistics. The foundation of this model is the asteroid rotation model of Marzari et al. (2011), which incorporates both the YORP effect and collisional evolution. This work adds to that model the rotational fission hypothesis (i.e. when the rotation rate exceeds a critical value, erosion and binary formation occur). The YORP effect timescale for large asteroids with diameters D > ~6 km is longer than the collision timescale in the Main Belt, thus the frequency of large asteroids is determined by a collisional equilibrium (e.g. Bottke 2005), but for small asteroids with diameters D < ~6 km, the asteroid population evolution model confirms that YORP-induced rotational fission destroys small asteroids more frequently than collisions. Therefore, the frequency of these small asteroids is determined by an equilibrium between the creation of new asteroids out of the impact debris of larger asteroids and the destruction of these asteroids by YORP-induced rotational fission. By introducing a new source of destruction that varies strongly with size, YORP-induced rotational fission alters the slope of the size frequency distribution. Using the outputs of the asteroid population evolution model and a 1-D collision evolution model, we can generate this new size frequency distribution and it matches the change in slope observed by the SKADS survey (Gladman 2009). This agreement is achieved with both an accretional power-law or a truncated “Asteroids were Born Big” size frequency distribution (Weidenschilling 2010, Morbidelli 2009).

Influence of plant size on female-biased sex allocation in a single-flowered, nectarless herb

PubMed Central

Xiong, Ying-Ze; Xie, Meng; Huang, Shuang-Quan

2016-01-01

Relative allocation to female and male function in hermaphroditic species often departs from strict equisexuality. Increased femaleness with plant size in animal-pollinated species has been proposed in theory and demonstrated in empirical studies. However, such size-dependent sex allocation (SDS) has not been observed in some insect-pollinated species, throwing doubt on the generalization of SDS, that large plants have decelerated male function investment. Himalayan mayapple Podophyllum hexandrum (Berberidaceae) produces a single terminal flower and no nectar, providing a simple system for studying SDS without the confounding effects of flower number and nectar production. To investigate the SDS in P. hexandrum, plant size, biomass of floral organs (stamens, pistils and petals) and gamete production (pollen and ovule number) were measured in four populations in Yunnan Province, northwest China. Isometric allocation to female and male function with plant size was found in two populations, but the prediction of SDS was supported in the other two populations. Using pollen and ovule production as the allocation currency, allocation to female and male function was isometric in all studied populations. Resources allocated to attractive (petals) and sexual (pistils and stamens) structures did not show a significantly disproportionate increase with plant size in three of the four studied populations. The general pattern of isometric allocation to female and male function and to attractive and sexual structures could be attributed to the species being capable of automatic self-pollination, related to low pollen loss, minor deleterious effect of selfing and low importance of attractive structures. However, in further studies, careful consideration should be given to the different currencies used to estimate sex allocation. PMID:26602988

An empirical model for estimating annual consumption by freshwater fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, H.; Pierce, C.L.; Larscheid, J.G.

2005-01-01

Population consumption is an important process linking predator populations to their prey resources. Simple tools are needed to enable fisheries managers to estimate population consumption. We assembled 74 individual estimates of annual consumption by freshwater fish populations and their mean annual population size, 41 of which also included estimates of mean annual biomass. The data set included 14 freshwater fish species from 10 different bodies of water. From this data set we developed two simple linear regression models predicting annual population consumption. Log-transformed population size explained 94% of the variation in log-transformed annual population consumption. Log-transformed biomass explained 98% of the variation in log-transformed annual population consumption. We quantified the accuracy of our regressions and three alternative consumption models as the mean percent difference from observed (bioenergetics-derived) estimates in a test data set. Predictions from our population-size regression matched observed consumption estimates poorly (mean percent difference = 222%). Predictions from our biomass regression matched observed consumption reasonably well (mean percent difference = 24%). The biomass regression was superior to an alternative model, similar in complexity, and comparable to two alternative models that were more complex and difficult to apply. Our biomass regression model, log10(consumption) = 0.5442 + 0.9962??log10(biomass), will be a useful tool for fishery managers, enabling them to make reasonably accurate annual population consumption predictions from mean annual biomass estimates. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

Size and age structure of anadromous and landlocked populations of Rainbow Smelt

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Malley, Andrew; Enterline, Claire; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax are widely distributed in both anadromous and landlocked populations throughout northeastern North America; abundance, size at age, and maximum size vary widely among populations and life histories. In the present study, size at age, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, population age distributions, and precision and bias in age assessment based on scales and sectioned otoliths were compared between ecotypes and among populations of Rainbow Smelt. To compare the ecotypes, we collected spawning adults from four anadromous and three landlocked populations in Maine during spring 2014. A significant bias was identified in only one of four scale comparisons but in four of seven otolith comparisons; however, a comparable level of precision was indicated. Anadromous populations had larger and more variable size at age and von Bertalanffy growth parameters than landlocked fish. Populations were composed of ages 1–4; six populations were dominated by age-2 or age-3 individuals, and one population was dominated by age-1 fish. These data suggest the presence of considerable plasticity among populations. A latitudinal gradient was observed in the anadromous Rainbow Smelt, which may show signs of population stress at the southern extent of their distribution.

77 FR 13097 - Endangered Species; File Nos. 15661, 10027, and 15685

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-05

... population structure, size class composition, foraging ecology, and migration patterns for green and... of green and hawksbill sea turtles focusing on distribution and abundance, ecology, health, and... and population structure, foraging ecology, habitat use, and movements. Researchers may capture...

Geometric morphometric analysis of Colombian Anopheles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae) reveals significant effect of environmental factors on wing traits and presence of a metapopulation

PubMed Central

Gómez, Giovan F.; Márquez, Edna J.; Gutiérrez, Lina A.; Conn, Jan E.; Correa, Margarita M.

2015-01-01

Anopheles albimanus is a major malaria mosquito vector in Colombia. In the present study, wing variability (size and shape) in An. albimanus populations from Colombian Maracaibo and Chocó bio-geographical eco-regions and the relationship of these phenotypic traits with environmental factors were evaluated. Microsatellite and morphometric data facilitated a comparison of the genetic and phenetic structure of this species. Wing size was influenced by elevation and relative humidity, whereas wing shape was affected by these two variables and also by rainfall, latitude, temperature and eco-region. Significant differences in mean shape between populations and eco-regions were detected, but they were smaller than those at the intra-population level. Correct assignment based on wing shape was low at the population level (<58%) and only slightly higher (>70%) at the eco-regional level, supporting the low population structure inferred from microsatellite data. Wing size was similar among populations with no significant differences between eco-regions. Population relationships in the genetic tree did not agree with those from the morphometric data; however, both datasets consistently reinforced a panmictic population of An. albimanus. Overall, site-specific population differentiation is not strongly supported by wing traits or genotypic data. We hypothesize that the metapopulation structure of An. albimanus throughout these Colombian eco-regions is favoring plasticity in wing traits, a relevant characteristic of species living under variable environmental conditions and colonizing new habitats. PMID:24704285

Population structure and the evolution of sexual size dimorphism and sex ratios in an insular population of Florida box turtles (Terrapene carolina bauri)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dodd, C.K.

1997-01-01

Hypotheses in the chelonian literature suggest that in species with sexual size dimorphism, the smaller sex will mature at a smaller size and a younger age than the larger sex, sex ratios should be biased in favor of the earlier maturing sex, and deviations from a 1:1 sex ratio result from maturation of the smaller sex at a younger age. I tested these hypotheses using data collected from 1991 to 1995 on an insular (Egmont Key) population of Florida box turtles, Terrapene carolina bauri. Contrary to predictions, the earlier maturing sex (males) grew to larger sizes than the late maturing sex. Males were significantly larger than females in mean carapace length but not mean body mass. Sex ratios were not balanced, favoring the earlier maturing sex (1.6 males:1 female), but the sex-ratio imbalance did not result from faster maturation of the smaller sex. The imbalance in the sex ratio in Egmont Key's box turtles is not the result of sampling biases; it may result from nest placement. Size-class structure and sex ratios can provide valuable insights into the status and trends of populations of long-lived turtles.

Both size-frequency distribution and sub-populations of the main-belt asteroid population are consistent with YORP-induced rotational fission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, S.; Scheeres, D.; Rossi, A.; Marzari, F.; Davis, D.

2014-07-01

From the results of a comprehensive asteroid-population-evolution model, we conclude that the YORP-induced rotational-fission hypothesis has strong repercussions for the small size end of the main-belt asteroid size-frequency distribution and is consistent with observed asteroid-population statistics and with the observed sub-populations of binary asteroids, asteroid pairs and contact binaries. The foundation of this model is the asteroid-rotation model of Marzari et al. (2011) and Rossi et al. (2009), which incorporates both the YORP effect and collisional evolution. This work adds to that model the rotational fission hypothesis (i.e. when the rotation rate exceeds a critical value, erosion and binary formation occur; Scheeres 2007) and binary-asteroid evolution (Jacobson & Scheeres, 2011). The YORP-effect timescale for large asteroids with diameters D > ˜ 6 km is longer than the collision timescale in the main belt, thus the frequency of large asteroids is determined by a collisional equilibrium (e.g. Bottke 2005), but for small asteroids with diameters D < ˜ 6 km, the asteroid-population evolution model confirms that YORP-induced rotational fission destroys small asteroids more frequently than collisions. Therefore, the frequency of these small asteroids is determined by an equilibrium between the creation of new asteroids out of the impact debris of larger asteroids and the destruction of these asteroids by YORP-induced rotational fission. By introducing a new source of destruction that varies strongly with size, YORP-induced rotational fission alters the slope of the size-frequency distribution. Using the outputs of the asteroid-population evolution model and a 1-D collision evolution model, we can generate this new size-frequency distribution and it matches the change in slope observed by the SKADS survey (Gladman 2009). This agreement is achieved with both an accretional power-law or a truncated ''Asteroids were Born Big'' size-frequency distribution (Weidenschilling 2010, Morbidelli 2009). The binary-asteroid evolution model is highly constrained by the modeling done in Jacobson & Scheeres, and therefore the asteroid-population evolution model has only two significant free parameters: the ratio of low-to-high-mass-ratio binaries formed after rotational fission events and the mean strength of the binary YORP (BYORP) effect. Using this model, we successfully reproduce the observed small-asteroid sub-populations, which orthogonally constrain the two free parameters. We find the outcome of rotational fission most likely produces an initial mass-ratio fraction that is four to eight times as likely to produce high-mass-ratio systems as low-mass-ratio systems, which is consistent with rotational fission creating binary systems in a flat distribution with respect to mass ratio. We also find that the mean of the log-normal BYORP coefficient distribution B ≈ 10^{-2}.

Antagonistic interactions are sufficient to explain self-assemblage of bacterial communities in a homogeneous environment: a computational modeling approach

PubMed Central

Zapién-Campos, Román; Olmedo-Álvarez, Gabriela; Santillán, Moisés

2015-01-01

Most of the studies in Ecology have been devoted to analyzing the effects the environment has on individuals, populations, and communities, thus neglecting the effects of biotic interactions on the system dynamics. In the present work we study the structure of bacterial communities in the oligotrophic shallow water system of Churince, Cuatro Cienegas, Mexico. Since the physicochemical conditions of this water system are homogeneous and quite stable in time, it is an excellent candidate to study how biotic factors influence the structure of bacterial communities. In a previous study, the binary antagonistic interactions of 78 bacterial strains, isolated from Churince, were experimentally determined. We employ these data to develop a computer algorithm to simulate growth experiments in a cellular grid representing the pond. Remarkably, in our model, the dynamics of all the simulated bacterial populations is determined solely by antagonistic interactions. Our results indicate that all bacterial strains (even those that are antagonized by many other bacteria) survive in the long term, and that the underlying mechanism is the formation of bacterial community patches. Patches corresponding to less antagonistic and highly susceptible strains are consistently isolated from the highly-antagonistic bacterial colonies by patches of neutral strains. These results concur with the observed features of the bacterial community structure previously reported. Finally, we study how our findings depend on factors like initial population size, differential population growth rates, homogeneous population death rates, and enhanced bacterial diffusion. PMID:26052318

A Population Genetic Signal of Polygenic Adaptation

PubMed Central

Berg, Jeremy J.; Coop, Graham

2014-01-01

Adaptation in response to selection on polygenic phenotypes may occur via subtle allele frequencies shifts at many loci. Current population genomic techniques are not well posed to identify such signals. In the past decade, detailed knowledge about the specific loci underlying polygenic traits has begun to emerge from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Here we combine this knowledge from GWAS with robust population genetic modeling to identify traits that may have been influenced by local adaptation. We exploit the fact that GWAS provide an estimate of the additive effect size of many loci to estimate the mean additive genetic value for a given phenotype across many populations as simple weighted sums of allele frequencies. We use a general model of neutral genetic value drift for an arbitrary number of populations with an arbitrary relatedness structure. Based on this model, we develop methods for detecting unusually strong correlations between genetic values and specific environmental variables, as well as a generalization of comparisons to test for over-dispersion of genetic values among populations. Finally we lay out a framework to identify the individual populations or groups of populations that contribute to the signal of overdispersion. These tests have considerably greater power than their single locus equivalents due to the fact that they look for positive covariance between like effect alleles, and also significantly outperform methods that do not account for population structure. We apply our tests to the Human Genome Diversity Panel (HGDP) dataset using GWAS data for height, skin pigmentation, type 2 diabetes, body mass index, and two inflammatory bowel disease datasets. This analysis uncovers a number of putative signals of local adaptation, and we discuss the biological interpretation and caveats of these results. PMID:25102153

Low but significant genetic differentiation underlies biologically meaningful phenotypic divergence in a large Atlantic salmon population.

PubMed

Aykanat, Tutku; Johnston, Susan E; Orell, Panu; Niemelä, Eero; Erkinaro, Jaakko; Primmer, Craig R

2015-10-01

Despite decades of research assessing the genetic structure of natural populations, the biological meaning of low yet significant genetic divergence often remains unclear due to a lack of associated phenotypic and ecological information. At the same time, structured populations with low genetic divergence and overlapping boundaries can potentially provide excellent models to study adaptation and reproductive isolation in cases where high-resolution genetic markers and relevant phenotypic and life history information are available. Here, we combined single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based population inference with extensive phenotypic and life history data to identify potential biological mechanisms driving fine-scale subpopulation differentiation in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) from the Teno River, a major salmon river in Europe. Two sympatrically occurring subpopulations had low but significant genetic differentiation (FST  = 0.018) and displayed marked differences in the distribution of life history strategies, including variation in juvenile growth rate, age at maturity and size within age classes. Large, late-maturing individuals were virtually absent from one of the two subpopulations, and there were significant differences in juvenile growth rates and size at age after oceanic migration between individuals in the respective subpopulations. Our findings suggest that different evolutionary processes affect each subpopulation and that hybridization and subsequent selection may maintain low genetic differentiation without hindering adaptive divergence. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population Structure, Genetic Diversity, Effective Population Size, Demographic History and Regional Connectivity Patterns of the Endangered Dusky Grouper, Epinephelus marginatus (Teleostei: Serranidae), within Malta’s Fisheries Management Zone

PubMed Central

Vella, Adriana

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to describe the genetic population structure and demographic history of the endangered marine fish, Epinephelus marginatus, within Malta’s Fisheries Management Zone for the purpose of localised conservation planning. Epinephelus marginatus is a long-lived, sedentary, reef-associated protogynous hermaphrodite with high commercial and recreational value that is at risk of extinction throughout its global distribution. Based on global trends, population substructuring and gaps in local knowledge this has led to an increased interest in evaluation of local stock. Assessment of Maltese demography was based on historical and contemporary catch landings data whilst genetic population structure and regional connectivity patterns were evaluated by examining 175 individuals collected within the central Mediterranean region between 2002 and 2009 using 14 nuclear microsatellite loci. Demographic stock assessment of Maltese E. marginatus’ revealed a 99% decline in catch landings between 1947 and 2009 within the Fisheries Management Zone. A contemporary modest mean size was observed, 3 ± 3 kg, where approximately 17% of the population was juvenile, 68% female/sex-changing and 15% were male with a male-to-female sex ratio of 1:5. Genetic analysis describes the overall population of E. marginatus’ within the Fisheries Management Zone as decreasing in size (ƟH = 2.2), which has gone through a significant size reduction in the past (M = 0.41) and consequently shows signs of moderate inbreeding (FIS = 0.10, p < 0.001) with an estimated effective population size of 130 individuals. Results of spatially explicit Bayesian genetic cluster analysis detected two geographically distinct subpopulations within Malta’s Fisheries Management Zone and that they are connected to a larger network of E. marginatus’ within the Sicily Channel. Results suggest conservation management should be designed to reflect E. marginatus’ within Malta’s Fisheries Management Zone as two management units. PMID:27463811

Regeneration of a keystone semiarid shrub over its range in Spain: habitat degradation overrides the positive effects of plant-animal mutualisms.

PubMed

Rey, Pedro J; Cancio, Inmaculada; Manzaneda, Antonio J; González-Robles, Ana; Valera, Francisco; Salido, Teresa; Alcántara, Julio M

2018-06-22

Global change drivers are currently affecting semiarid ecosystems. Because these ecosystems differ from others in biotic and abiotic filters, cues for plant regeneration and management derived from elsewhere may not be applicable to semiarid ecosystems. We sought to determine the extent to which regional variation in regeneration prospects of a long-lived semiarid keystone shrub depends on anthropogenic habitat degradation, plant-animal interactions and climate determinants. We investigated the regeneration ability (via population size structure, juvenile density and juvenile/adult ratio), fruit set and seed dispersal of Ziziphus lotus in 25 localities spanning the range of its threatened habitats in Spain. We dissected the relative contribution of different regeneration determinants using multiple regression and structural equation modelling. Population regeneration was extremely poor, and size structures were biased towards large classes and low juvenile densities and juvenile/adult ratios. Poor regeneration was often coincident with seed dispersal collapse. However, the positive effect of seed dispersal on population regeneration disappeared after considering its relationship with habitat degradation. Protected areas did have juveniles. Together, these data suggest that habitat degradation directly impacts juvenile establishment. Our results provide insights into habitat and species management at the regional level. Z. lotus populations are currently driven by persistence-based dynamics through the longevity of the species. Nonetheless, collapsed seed dispersal, poor regeneration and the removal of adults from their habitats forecast extinction of Z. lotus in many remnants. The extreme longevity of Z. lotus grants opportunities for the recovery of its populations and habitats through effective enforcement of regulations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Population and Individual Elephant Response to a Catastrophic Fire in Pilanesberg National Park

PubMed Central

Woolley, Leigh-Ann; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Woods, Rami J.; Janse van Rensburg, Samantha; Mackey, Robin L.; Page, Bruce; Slotow, Rob

2008-01-01

In predator-free large herbivore populations, where density-dependent feedbacks occur at the limit where forage resources can no longer support the population, environmental catastrophes may play a significant role in population regulation. The potential role of fire as a stochastic mass-mortality event limiting these populations is poorly understood, so too the behavioural and physiological responses of the affected animals to this type of large disturbance event. During September 2005, a wildfire resulted in mortality of 29 (18% population mortality) and injury to 18, African elephants in Pilanesberg National Park, South Africa. We examined movement and herd association patterns of six GPS-collared breeding herds, and evaluated population physiological response through faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (stress) levels. We investigated population size, structure and projected growth rates using a simulation model. After an initial flight response post-fire, severely injured breeding herds reduced daily displacement with increased daily variability, reduced home range size, spent more time in non-tourist areas and associated less with other herds. Uninjured, or less severely injured, breeding herds also shifted into non-tourist areas post-fire, but in contrast, increased displacement rate (both mean and variability), did not adjust home range size and formed larger herds post-fire. Adult cow stress hormone levels increased significantly post-fire, whereas juvenile and adult bull stress levels did not change significantly. Most mortality occurred to the juvenile age class causing a change in post-fire population age structure. Projected population growth rate remained unchanged at 6.5% p.a., and at current fecundity levels, the population would reach its previous level three to four years post-fire. The natural mortality patterns seen in elephant populations during stochastic events, such as droughts, follows that of the classic mortality pattern seen in predator-free large ungulate populations, i.e. mainly involving juveniles. Fire therefore functions in a similar manner to other environmental catastrophes and may be a natural mechanism contributing to population limitation. Welfare concerns of arson fires, burning during “hot-fire” conditions and the conservation implications of fire suppression (i.e. removal of a potential contributing factor to natural population regulation) should be integrated into fire management strategies for conservation areas. PMID:18797503

Spatially explicit dynamic N-mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Qing; Royle, Andy; Boomer, G. Scott

2017-01-01

Knowledge of demographic parameters such as survival, reproduction, emigration, and immigration is essential to understand metapopulation dynamics. Traditionally the estimation of these demographic parameters requires intensive data from marked animals. The development of dynamic N-mixture models makes it possible to estimate demographic parameters from count data of unmarked animals, but the original dynamic N-mixture model does not distinguish emigration and immigration from survival and reproduction, limiting its ability to explain important metapopulation processes such as movement among local populations. In this study we developed a spatially explicit dynamic N-mixture model that estimates survival, reproduction, emigration, local population size, and detection probability from count data under the assumption that movement only occurs among adjacent habitat patches. Simulation studies showed that the inference of our model depends on detection probability, local population size, and the implementation of robust sampling design. Our model provides reliable estimates of survival, reproduction, and emigration when detection probability is high, regardless of local population size or the type of sampling design. When detection probability is low, however, our model only provides reliable estimates of survival, reproduction, and emigration when local population size is moderate to high and robust sampling design is used. A sensitivity analysis showed that our model is robust against the violation of the assumption that movement only occurs among adjacent habitat patches, suggesting wide applications of this model. Our model can be used to improve our understanding of metapopulation dynamics based on count data that are relatively easy to collect in many systems.

Differences in the effective population sizes of males and females do not require differences in their distribution of offspring number.

PubMed

Mendez, Fernando L

2017-04-01

Difference in male and female effective population sizes has, at times, been attributed to both sexes having unequal variance in their number of offspring. Such difference is paralleled by the relative effective sizes of autosomes, sex chromosomes, and mitochondrial DNA. I develop a simple framework to calculate the inbreeding effective population sizes for loci with different modes of inheritance. In this framework, I separate the effects due to mating strategy and those due to genetic transmission. I then show that, in addition to differences in the variance in offspring number, skew in the male/female effective sizes can also be caused by family composition. This approach can be used to illustrate the effect of induced behaviors on the relative male and female effective population sizes. In particular, I show the impact of the one-child policy formerly implemented in the People's Republic of China on the relative male and female effective population sizes. Furthermore, I argue that, under some strong constraints on family structure, the concepts of male and female effective population sizes are invalid. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interpretation of light scattering and turbidity measurements in aggregated systems: effect of intra-cluster multiple-light scattering.

PubMed

Soos, Miroslav; Lattuada, Marco; Sefcik, Jan

2009-11-12

In this work we studied the effect of intracluster multiple-light scattering on the scattering properties of a population of fractal aggregates. To do so, experimental data of diffusion-limited aggregation for three polystyrene latexes with similar surface properties but different primary particle diameters (equal to 118, 420, and 810 nm) were obtained by static light scattering and by means of a spectrophotometer. In parallel, a population balance equation (PBE) model, which takes into account the effect of intracluster multiple-light scattering by solving the T-matrix and the mean-field version of T-matrix, was formulated and validated against time evolution of the root mean radius of gyration, , of the zero angle intensity of scattered light, I(0), and of the turbidity, tau. It was found that the mean-field version of the T-matrix theory is able to correctly predict the time evolution of all measured light scattering quantities for all sizes of primary particles without any adjustable parameter. The structure of the aggregates, characterized by fractal dimension, d(f), was independent of the primary particle size and equal to 1.7, which is in agreement with values found in literature. Since the mean-field version of the T-matrix theory used is rather complicated and requires advanced knowledge of cluster structure (i.e., the particle-particle correlation function), a simplified version of the light scattering model was proposed and tested. It was found that within the range of operating conditions investigated, the simplified version of the light scattering model was able to describe with reasonable accuracy the time evolution of all measured light scattering quantities of the cluster mass distribution (CMD) for all three sizes of primary particles and two values of the laser wavelength.

sGD: software for estimating spatially explicit indices of genetic diversity.

PubMed

Shirk, A J; Cushman, S A

2011-09-01

Anthropogenic landscape changes have greatly reduced the population size, range and migration rates of many terrestrial species. The small local effective population size of remnant populations favours loss of genetic diversity leading to reduced fitness and adaptive potential, and thus ultimately greater extinction risk. Accurately quantifying genetic diversity is therefore crucial to assessing the viability of small populations. Diversity indices are typically calculated from the multilocus genotypes of all individuals sampled within discretely defined habitat patches or larger regional extents. Importantly, discrete population approaches do not capture the clinal nature of populations genetically isolated by distance or landscape resistance. Here, we introduce spatial Genetic Diversity (sGD), a new spatially explicit tool to estimate genetic diversity based on grouping individuals into potentially overlapping genetic neighbourhoods that match the population structure, whether discrete or clinal. We compared the estimates and patterns of genetic diversity using patch or regional sampling and sGD on both simulated and empirical populations. When the population did not meet the assumptions of an island model, we found that patch and regional sampling generally overestimated local heterozygosity, inbreeding and allelic diversity. Moreover, sGD revealed fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in genetic diversity that was not evident with patch or regional sampling. These advantages should provide a more robust means to evaluate the potential for genetic factors to influence the viability of clinal populations and guide appropriate conservation plans. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Body size, performance and fitness in galapagos marine iguanas.

PubMed

Wikelski, Martin; Romero, L Michael

2003-07-01

Complex organismal traits such as body size are influenced by innumerable selective pressures, making the prediction of evolutionary trajectories for those traits difficult. A potentially powerful way to predict fitness in natural systems is to study the composite response of individuals in terms of performance measures, such as foraging or reproductive performance. Once key performance measures are identified in this top-down approach, we can determine the underlying physiological mechanisms and gain predictive power over long-term evolutionary processes. Here we use marine iguanas as a model system where body size differs by more than one order of magnitude between island populations. We identified foraging efficiency as the main performance measure that constrains body size. Mechanistically, foraging performance is determined by food pasture height and the thermal environment, influencing intake and digestion. Stress hormones may be a flexible way of influencing an individual's response to low-food situations that may be caused by high population density, famines, or anthropogenic disturbances like oil spills. Reproductive performance, on the other hand, increases with body size and is mediated by higher survival of larger hatchlings from larger females and increased mating success of larger males. Reproductive performance of males may be adjusted via plastic hormonal feedback mechanisms that allow individuals to assess their social rank annually within the current population size structure. When integrated, these data suggest that reproductive performance favors increased body size (influenced by reproductive hormones), with an overall limit imposed by foraging performance (influenced by stress hormones). Based on our mechanistic understanding of individual performances we predicted an evolutionary increase in maximum body size caused by global warming trends. We support this prediction using specimens collected during 1905. We also show in a common-garden experiment that body size may have a genetic component in iguanids. This 'performance paradigm' allows predictions about adaptive evolution in natural populations.

Effects of Freshwater Discharge in Sandy Beach Populations: The Mole Crab Emerita brasiliensis in Uruguay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lercari, D.; Defeo, O.

1999-10-01

Sandy beaches are ecosystems which are heavily affected by human activities. An example of this is freshwater discharges, which are known to change salinity, temperature and nutrient regimes and degrade nearshore environments. However, the effects of this kind of disturbance on sandy beach fauna have been little studied. This paper reports the spatial effects of a man-made freshwater canal discharge on the population structure, abundance and reproductive characteristics of the sandy beach mole crab Emerita brasiliensis. Along the 22 km of sandy beach sampled, the mole crab showed a marked longshore variability in population structure and abundance. Abundance of different population components (juveniles, males, females and ovigerous females) significantly decreased towards the canal. Population structure by sex and size, individual weight, fecundity and female maturity patterns at size also displayed a non-linear response to the distance from the freshwater discharge. Only the size structure of males did not follow this pattern. For males, spatial heterogeneity enhanced the detection of density-dependence at less disturbed sites. The authors conclude that artificial freshwater discharges could significantly influence the distribution, abundance and life-history traits of the biota of sandy beaches, and that further study of these ecosystems should include human activities as important factors affecting spatial and temporal trends. The need to consider different spatial and temporal scales in order to detect the effect of anthropogenically-driven impacts in sandy beach populations is stressed.

Determinants of genetic structure in a nonequilibrium metapopulation of the plant Silene latifolia.

PubMed

Fields, Peter D; Taylor, Douglas R

2014-01-01

Population genetic differentiation will be influenced by the demographic history of populations, opportunities for migration among neighboring demes and founder effects associated with repeated extinction and recolonization. In natural populations, these factors are expected to interact with each other and their magnitudes will vary depending on the spatial distribution and age structure of local demes. Although each of these effects has been individually identified as important in structuring genetic variance, their relative magnitude is seldom estimated in nature. We conducted a population genetic analysis in a metapopulation of the angiosperm, Silene latifolia, from which we had more than 20 years of data on the spatial distribution, demographic history, and extinction and colonization of demes. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to disentangle which features of the populations contributed to among population variation in allele frequencies, including the magnitude and direction of their effects. We show that population age, long-term size and degree of connectivity all combine to affect the distribution of genetic variance; small, recently-founded, isolated populations contributed most to increase FST in the metapopulation. However, the effects of population size and population age are best understood as being modulated through the effects of connectivity to other extant populations, i.e. FST diminishes as populations age, but at a rate that depends how isolated the population is. These spatial and temporal correlates of population structure give insight into how migration, founder effect and within-deme genetic drift have combined to enhance and restrict genetic divergence in a natural metapopulation.

Trap configuration and spacing influences parameter estimates in spatial capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sun, Catherine C.; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

An increasing number of studies employ spatial capture-recapture models to estimate population size, but there has been limited research on how different spatial sampling designs and trap configurations influence parameter estimators. Spatial capture-recapture models provide an advantage over non-spatial models by explicitly accounting for heterogeneous detection probabilities among individuals that arise due to the spatial organization of individuals relative to sampling devices. We simulated black bear (Ursus americanus) populations and spatial capture-recapture data to evaluate the influence of trap configuration and trap spacing on estimates of population size and a spatial scale parameter, sigma, that relates to home range size. We varied detection probability and home range size, and considered three trap configurations common to large-mammal mark-recapture studies: regular spacing, clustered, and a temporal sequence of different cluster configurations (i.e., trap relocation). We explored trap spacing and number of traps per cluster by varying the number of traps. The clustered arrangement performed well when detection rates were low, and provides for easier field implementation than the sequential trap arrangement. However, performance differences between trap configurations diminished as home range size increased. Our simulations suggest it is important to consider trap spacing relative to home range sizes, with traps ideally spaced no more than twice the spatial scale parameter. While spatial capture-recapture models can accommodate different sampling designs and still estimate parameters with accuracy and precision, our simulations demonstrate that aspects of sampling design, namely trap configuration and spacing, must consider study area size, ranges of individual movement, and home range sizes in the study population.

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 – Consequences for Blood Donation

PubMed Central

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-01-01

Summary This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of ‘non-donors’) in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060. PMID:20737016

Modeling the growth of individuals in plant populations: local density variation in a strand population of Xanthium strumarium (Asteraceae).

PubMed

Weiner, J; Kinsman, S; Williams, S

1998-11-01

We studied the growth of individual Xanthium strumarium plants growing at four naturally occurring local densities on a beach in Maine: (1) isolated plants, (2) pairs of plants ≤1 cm apart, (3) four plants within 4 cm of each other, and (4) discrete dense clumps of 10-39 plants. A combination of nondestructive measurements every 2 wk and parallel calibration harvests provided very good estimates of the growth in aboveground biomass of over 400 individual plants over 8 wk and afforded the opportunity to fit explicit growth models to 293 of them. There was large individual variation in growth and resultant size within the population and within all densities. Local crowding played a role in determining plant size within the population: there were significant differences in final size between all densities except pairs and quadruples, which were almost identical. Overall, plants growing at higher densities were more variable in growth and final size than plants growing at lower densities, but this was due to increased variation among groups (greater variation in local density and/or greater environmental heterogeneity), not to increased variation within groups. Thus, there was no evidence of size asymmetric competition in this population. The growth of most plants was close to exponential over the study period, but half the plants were slightly better fit by a sigmoidal (logistic) model. The proportion of plants better fit by the logistic model increased with density and with initial plant size. The use of explicit growth models over several growth intervals to describe stand development can provide more biological content and more statistical power than "growth-size" methods that analyze growth intervals separately.

Modeling optimal treatment strategies in a heterogeneous mixing model.

PubMed

Choe, Seoyun; Lee, Sunmi

2015-11-25

Many mathematical models assume random or homogeneous mixing for various infectious diseases. Homogeneous mixing can be generalized to mathematical models with multi-patches or age structure by incorporating contact matrices to capture the dynamics of the heterogeneously mixing populations. Contact or mixing patterns are difficult to measure in many infectious diseases including influenza. Mixing patterns are considered to be one of the critical factors for infectious disease modeling. A two-group influenza model is considered to evaluate the impact of heterogeneous mixing on the influenza transmission dynamics. Heterogeneous mixing between two groups with two different activity levels includes proportionate mixing, preferred mixing and like-with-like mixing. Furthermore, the optimal control problem is formulated in this two-group influenza model to identify the group-specific optimal treatment strategies at a minimal cost. We investigate group-specific optimal treatment strategies under various mixing scenarios. The characteristics of the two-group influenza dynamics have been investigated in terms of the basic reproduction number and the final epidemic size under various mixing scenarios. As the mixing patterns become proportionate mixing, the basic reproduction number becomes smaller; however, the final epidemic size becomes larger. This is due to the fact that the number of infected people increases only slightly in the higher activity level group, while the number of infected people increases more significantly in the lower activity level group. Our results indicate that more intensive treatment of both groups at the early stage is the most effective treatment regardless of the mixing scenario. However, proportionate mixing requires more treated cases for all combinations of different group activity levels and group population sizes. Mixing patterns can play a critical role in the effectiveness of optimal treatments. As the mixing becomes more like-with-like mixing, treating the higher activity group in the population is almost as effective as treating the entire populations since it reduces the number of disease cases effectively but only requires similar treatments. The gain becomes more pronounced as the basic reproduction number increases. This can be a critical issue which must be considered for future pandemic influenza interventions, especially when there are limited resources available.

The pitcher plant flesh fly exhibits a mixture of patchy and metapopulation attributes.

PubMed

Rasic, Gordana; Keyghobadi, Nusha

2012-01-01

We investigated the pattern of spatial genetic structure and the extent of gene flow in the pitcher plant flesh fly Fletcherimyia fletcheri, the largest member of the inquiline community of the purple pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. Using microsatellite loci, we tested the theoretical predictions of different hypothesized population models (patchy population, metapopulation, or isolated populations) among 11 bogs in Algonquin Provincial Park (Canada). Our results revealed that the pitcher plant flesh fly exhibits a mixture of patchy and metapopulation characteristics. There is significant differentiation among bogs and limited gene flow at larger spatial scales, but local populations do not experience frequent local extinctions/recolonizations. Our findings suggest a strong dispersal ability and stable population sizes in F. fletcheri, providing novel insights into the ecology of this member of a unique ecological microcosm.

Anomalous Growth of Aging Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grebenkov, Denis S.

2016-04-01

We consider a discrete-time population dynamics with age-dependent structure. At every time step, one of the alive individuals from the population is chosen randomly and removed with probability q_k depending on its age, whereas a new individual of age 1 is born with probability r. The model can also describe a single queue in which the service order is random while the service efficiency depends on a customer's "age" in the queue. We propose a mean field approximation to investigate the long-time asymptotic behavior of the mean population size. The age dependence is shown to lead to anomalous power-law growth of the population at the critical regime. The scaling exponent is determined by the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities q_k at large k. The mean field approximation is validated by Monte Carlo simulations.

Trichotomous noise controlled signal amplification in a generalized Verhulst model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, Romi; Soika, Erkki; Lumi, Neeme

2014-10-01

The long-time limit of the probability distribution and statistical moments for a population size are studied by means of a stochastic growth model with generalized Verhulst self-regulation. The effect of variable environment on the carrying capacity of a population is modeled by a multiplicative three-level Markovian noise and by a time periodic deterministic component. Exact expressions for the moments of the population size have been calculated. It is shown that an interplay of a small periodic forcing and colored noise can cause large oscillations of the mean population size. The conditions for the appearance of such a phenomenon are found and illustrated by graphs. Implications of the results on models of symbiotic metapopulations are also discussed. Particularly, it is demonstrated that the effect of noise-generated amplification of an input signal gets more pronounced as the intensity of symbiotic interaction increases.

Genomic evidence of demographic fluctuations and lack of genetic structure across flyways in a long distance migrant, the European turtle dove.

PubMed

Calderón, Luciano; Campagna, Leonardo; Wilke, Thomas; Lormee, Hervé; Eraud, Cyril; Dunn, Jenny C; Rocha, Gregorio; Zehtindjiev, Pavel; Bakaloudis, Dimitrios E; Metzger, Benjamin; Cecere, Jacopo G; Marx, Melanie; Quillfeldt, Petra

2016-11-07

Understanding how past climatic oscillations have affected organismic evolution will help predict the impact that current climate change has on living organisms. The European turtle dove, Streptopelia turtur, is a warm-temperature adapted species and a long distance migrant that uses multiple flyways to move between Europe and Africa. Despite being abundant, it is categorized as vulnerable because of a long-term demographic decline. We studied the demographic history and population genetic structure of the European turtle dove using genomic data and mitochondrial DNA sequences from individuals sampled across Europe, and performing paleoclimatic niche modelling simulations. Overall our data suggest that this species is panmictic across Europe, and is not genetically structured across flyways. We found the genetic signatures of demographic fluctuations, inferring an effective population size (Ne) expansion that occurred between the late Pleistocene and early Holocene, followed by a decrease in the Ne that started between the mid Holocene and the present. Our niche modelling analyses suggest that the variations in the Ne are coincident with recent changes in the availability of suitable habitat. We argue that the European turtle dove is prone to undergo demographic fluctuations, a trait that makes it sensitive to anthropogenic impacts, especially when its numbers are decreasing. Also, considering the lack of genetic structure, we suggest all populations across Europe are equally relevant for conservation.

Development of a stock-recruitment model and assessment of biological reference points for the Lake Erie walleye fishery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Yingming; Kocovsky, Patrick M.; Madenjian, Charles P.

2013-01-01

We developed an updated stock–recruitment relationship for Lake Erie Walleye Sander vitreus using the Akaike information criterion model selection approach. Our best stock–recruitment relationship was a Ricker spawner–recruit function to which spring warming rate was added as an environmental variable, and this regression model explained 39% of the variability in Walleye recruitment over the 1978 through 2006 year-classes. Thus, most of the variability in Lake Erie Walleye recruitment appeared to be attributable to factors other than spawning stock size and spring warming rate. The abundance of age-0 Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum, which was an important term in previous models, may still be an important factor for Walleye recruitment, but poorer ability to monitor Gizzard Shad since the late 1990s could have led to that term failing to appear in our best model. Secondly, we used numerical simulation to demonstrate how to use the stock recruitment relationship to characterize the population dynamics (such as stable age structure, carrying capacity, and maximum sustainable yield) and some biological reference points (such as fishing rates at different important biomass or harvest levels) for an age-structured population in a deterministic way.

A thermally driven differential mutation approach for the structural optimization of large atomic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, Katja

2017-09-01

A computational method is presented which is capable to obtain low lying energy structures of topological amorphous systems. The method merges a differential mutation genetic algorithm with simulated annealing. This is done by incorporating a thermal selection criterion, which makes it possible to reliably obtain low lying minima with just a small population size and is suitable for multimodal structural optimization. The method is tested on the structural optimization of amorphous graphene from unbiased atomic starting configurations. With just a population size of six systems, energetically very low structures are obtained. While each of the structures represents a distinctly different arrangement of the atoms, their properties, such as energy, distribution of rings, radial distribution function, coordination number, and distribution of bond angles, are very similar.

Population and prehistory II: Space-limited human populations in constant environments

PubMed Central

Puleston, Cedric O.; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2010-01-01

We present a population model to examine the forces that determined the quality and quantity of human life in early agricultural societies where cultivable area is limited. The model is driven by the non-linear and interdependent relationships between the age distribution of a population, its behavior and technology, and the nature of its environment. The common currency in the model is the production of food, on which age-specific rates of birth and death depend. There is a single nontrivial equilibrium population at which productivity balances caloric needs. One of the most powerful controls on equilibrium hunger level is fertility control. Gains against hunger are accompanied by decreases in population size. Increasing worker productivity does increase equilibrium population size but does not improve welfare at equilibrium. As a case study we apply the model to the population of a Polynesian valley before European contact. PMID:18598711

Population and prehistory II: space-limited human populations in constant environments.

PubMed

Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2008-09-01

We present a population model to examine the forces that determined the quality and quantity of human life in early agricultural societies where cultivable area is limited. The model is driven by the non-linear and interdependent relationships between the age distribution of a population, its behavior and technology, and the nature of its environment. The common currency in the model is the production of food, on which age-specific rates of birth and death depend. There is a single non-trivial equilibrium population at which productivity balances caloric needs. One of the most powerful controls on equilibrium hunger level is fertility control. Gains against hunger are accompanied by decreases in population size. Increasing worker productivity does increase equilibrium population size but does not improve welfare at equilibrium. As a case study we apply the model to the population of a Polynesian valley before European contact.

Defining population structure and genetic signatures of decline in the giant garter snake (Thamnophis gigas): implications for conserving threatened species within highly altered landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Dustin A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Hansen, Eric C.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Vandergast, Amy

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic habitat fragmentation can disrupt the ability of species to disperse across landscapes, which can alter the levels and distribution of genetic diversity within populations and negatively impact long-term viability. The giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) is a state and federally threatened species that historically occurred in the wetland habitats of California’s Great Central Valley. Despite the loss of 93 % of historic wetlands throughout the Central Valley, giant gartersnakes continue to persist in relatively small, isolated patches of highly modified agricultural wetlands. Gathering information regarding genetic diversity and effective population size represents an essential component for conservation management programs aimed at this species. Previous mitochondrial sequence studies have revealed historical patterns of differentiation, yet little is known about contemporary population structure and diversity. On the basis of 15 microsatellite loci, we estimate population structure and compare indices of genetic diversity among populations spanning seven drainage basins within the Central Valley. We sought to understand how habitat loss may have affected genetic differentiation, genetic diversity and effective population size, and what these patterns suggest in terms of management and restoration actions. We recovered five genetic clusters that were consistent with regional drainage basins, although three northern basins within the Sacramento Valley formed a single genetic cluster. Our results show that northern drainage basin populations have higher connectivity than among central and southern basins populations, and that greater differentiation exists among the more geographically isolated populations in the central and southern portion of the species’ range. Genetic diversity measures among basins were significantly different, and were generally lower in southern basin populations. Levels of inbreeding and evidence of population bottlenecks were detected in about half the populations we sampled, and effective population size estimates were well below recommended minimum thresholds to avoid inbreeding. Efforts focused on maintaining and enhancing existing wetlands to facilitate dispersal between basins and increase local effective population sizes may be critical for these otherwise isolated populations.

Monte Carlo simulation models of breeding-population advancement.

Treesearch

J.N. King; G.R. Johnson

1993-01-01

Five generations of population improvement were modeled using Monte Carlo simulations. The model was designed to address questions that are important to the development of an advanced generation breeding population. Specifically we addressed the effects on both gain and effective population size of different mating schemes when creating a recombinant population for...

ON A POSSIBLE SIZE/COLOR RELATIONSHIP IN THE KUIPER BELT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pike, R. E.; Kavelaars, J. J., E-mail: repike@uvic.ca

2013-10-01

Color measurements and albedo distributions introduce non-intuitive observational biases in size-color relationships among Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) that cannot be disentangled without a well characterized sample population with systematic photometry. Peixinho et al. report that the form of the KBO color distribution varies with absolute magnitude, H. However, Tegler et al. find that KBO color distributions are a property of object classification. We construct synthetic models of observed KBO colors based on two B-R color distribution scenarios: color distribution dependent on H magnitude (H-Model) and color distribution based on object classification (Class-Model). These synthetic B-R color distributions were modified tomore » account for observational flux biases. We compare our synthetic B-R distributions to the observed ''Hot'' and ''Cold'' detected objects from the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey and the Meudon Multicolor Survey. For both surveys, the Hot population color distribution rejects the H-Model, but is well described by the Class-Model. The Cold objects reject the H-Model, but the Class-Model (while not statistically rejected) also does not provide a compelling match for data. Although we formally reject models where the structure of the color distribution is a strong function of H magnitude, we also do not find that a simple dependence of color distribution on orbit classification is sufficient to describe the color distribution of classical KBOs.« less

Restricted mating dispersal and strong breeding group structure in a mid-sized marsupial mammal (Petrogale penicillata).

PubMed

Hazlitt, S L; Sigg, D P; Eldridge, M D B; Goldizen, A W

2006-09-01

Ecological genetic studies have demonstrated that spatial patterns of mating dispersal, the dispersal of gametes through mating behaviour, can facilitate inbreeding avoidance and strongly influence the structure of populations, particularly in highly philopatric species. Elements of breeding group dynamics, such as strong structuring and sex-biased dispersal among groups, can also minimize inbreeding and positively influence levels of genetic diversity within populations. Rock-wallabies are highly philopatric mid-sized mammals whose strong dependence on rocky terrain has resulted in series of discreet, small colonies in the landscape. Populations show no signs of inbreeding and maintain high levels of genetic diversity despite strong patterns of limited gene flow within and among colonies. We used this species to investigate the importance of mating dispersal and breeding group structure to inbreeding avoidance within a 'small' population. We examined the spatial patterns of mating dispersal, the extent of kinship within breeding groups, and the degree of relatedness among brush-tailed rock-wallaby breeding pairs within a colony in southeast Queensland. Parentage data revealed remarkably restricted mating dispersal and strong breeding group structuring for a mid-sized mammal. Breeding groups showed significant levels of female kinship with evidence of male dispersal among groups. We found no evidence for inbreeding avoidance through mate choice; however, anecdotal data suggest the importance of life history traits to inbreeding avoidance between first-degree relatives. We suggest that the restricted pattern of mating dispersal and strong breeding group structuring facilitates inbreeding avoidance within colonies. These results provide insight into the population structure and maintenance of genetic diversity within colonies of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby.

An Inverse Problem for a Class of Conditional Probability Measure-Dependent Evolution Equations

PubMed Central

Mirzaev, Inom; Byrne, Erin C.; Bortz, David M.

2016-01-01

We investigate the inverse problem of identifying a conditional probability measure in measure-dependent evolution equations arising in size-structured population modeling. We formulate the inverse problem as a least squares problem for the probability measure estimation. Using the Prohorov metric framework, we prove existence and consistency of the least squares estimates and outline a discretization scheme for approximating a conditional probability measure. For this scheme, we prove general method stability. The work is motivated by Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models of flocculation for which the shape of the post-fragmentation conditional probability measure greatly impacts the solution dynamics. To illustrate our methodology, we apply the theory to a particular PDE model that arises in the study of population dynamics for flocculating bacterial aggregates in suspension, and provide numerical evidence for the utility of the approach. PMID:28316360

How can we model selectively neutral density dependence in evolutionary games.

PubMed

Argasinski, Krzysztof; Kozłowski, Jan

2008-03-01

The problem of density dependence appears in all approaches to the modelling of population dynamics. It is pertinent to classic models (i.e., Lotka-Volterra's), and also population genetics and game theoretical models related to the replicator dynamics. There is no density dependence in the classic formulation of replicator dynamics, which means that population size may grow to infinity. Therefore the question arises: How is unlimited population growth suppressed in frequency-dependent models? Two categories of solutions can be found in the literature. In the first, replicator dynamics is independent of background fitness. In the second type of solution, a multiplicative suppression coefficient is used, as in a logistic equation. Both approaches have disadvantages. The first one is incompatible with the methods of life history theory and basic probabilistic intuitions. The logistic type of suppression of per capita growth rate stops trajectories of selection when population size reaches the maximal value (carrying capacity); hence this method does not satisfy selective neutrality. To overcome these difficulties, we must explicitly consider turn-over of individuals dependent on mortality rate. This new approach leads to two interesting predictions. First, the equilibrium value of population size is lower than carrying capacity and depends on the mortality rate. Second, although the phase portrait of selection trajectories is the same as in density-independent replicator dynamics, pace of selection slows down when population size approaches equilibrium, and then remains constant and dependent on the rate of turn-over of individuals.

Role of evolutionary and ecological factors in the reproductive success and the spatial genetic structure of the temperate gorgonian Paramuricea clavata

PubMed Central

Mokhtar-Jamaï, Kenza; Coma, Rafel; Wang, Jinliang; Zuberer, Frederic; Féral, Jean-Pierre; Aurelle, Didier

2013-01-01

Dispersal and mating features strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics and the spatial genetic structure (SGS) of marine populations. For the first time in a marine invertebrate, we examined individual reproductive success, by conducting larval paternity assignments after a natural spawning event, combined with a small-scale SGS analysis within a population of the gorgonian Paramuricea clavata. Thirty four percent of the larvae were sired by male colonies surrounding the brooding female colonies, revealing that the bulk of the mating was accomplished by males from outside the studied area. Male success increased with male height and decreased with increasing male to female distance. The parentage analyses, with a strong level of self-recruitment (25%), unveiled the occurrence of a complex family structure at a small spatial scale, consistent with the limited larval dispersal of this species. However, no evidence of small scale SGS was revealed despite this family structure. Furthermore, temporal genetic structure was not observed, which appears to be related to the rather large effective population size. The low level of inbreeding found suggests a pattern of random mating in this species, which disagrees with expectations that limited larval dispersal should lead to biparental inbreeding. Surface brooding and investment in sexual reproduction in P. clavata contribute to multiple paternity (on average 6.4 fathers were assigned per brood), which enhance genetic diversity of the brood. Several factors may have contributed to the lack of biparental inbreeding in our study such as (i) the lack of sperm limitation at a small scale, (ii) multiple paternity, and (iii) the large effective population size. Thus, our results indicate that limited larval dispersal and complex family structure do not necessarily lead to biparental inbreeding and SGS. In the framework of conservation purposes, our results suggested that colony size, proximity among colonies and the population size should be taken into consideration for restoration projects. PMID:23789084

A robust measure of HIV-1 population turnover within chronically infected individuals.

PubMed

Achaz, G; Palmer, S; Kearney, M; Maldarelli, F; Mellors, J W; Coffin, J M; Wakeley, J

2004-10-01

A simple nonparameteric test for population structure was applied to temporally spaced samples of HIV-1 sequences from the gag-pol region within two chronically infected individuals. The results show that temporal structure can be detected for samples separated by about 22 months or more. The performance of the method, which was originally proposed to detect geographic structure, was tested for temporally spaced samples using neutral coalescent simulations. Simulations showed that the method is robust to variation in samples sizes and mutation rates, to the presence/absence of recombination, and that the power to detect temporal structure is high. By comparing levels of temporal structure in simulations to the levels observed in real data, we estimate the effective intra-individual population size of HIV-1 to be between 10(3) and 10(4) viruses, which is in agreement with some previous estimates. Using this estimate and a simple measure of sequence diversity, we estimate an effective neutral mutation rate of about 5 x 10(-6) per site per generation in the gag-pol region. The definition and interpretation of estimates of such "effective" population parameters are discussed.

Estimating population size for Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) with spatial capture-recapture models based on genotypes from one field sample

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mollet, Pierre; Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth; Pasinelli, Gilberto; Royle, Andy

2015-01-01

We conducted a survey of an endangered and cryptic forest grouse, the capercaillie Tetrao urogallus, based on droppings collected on two sampling occasions in eight forest fragments in central Switzerland in early spring 2009. We used genetic analyses to sex and individually identify birds. We estimated sex-dependent detection probabilities and population size using a modern spatial capture-recapture (SCR) model for the data from pooled surveys. A total of 127 capercaillie genotypes were identified (77 males, 46 females, and 4 of unknown sex). The SCR model yielded atotal population size estimate (posterior mean) of 137.3 capercaillies (posterior sd 4.2, 95% CRI 130–147). The observed sex ratio was skewed towards males (0.63). The posterior mean of the sex ratio under the SCR model was 0.58 (posterior sd 0.02, 95% CRI 0.54–0.61), suggesting a male-biased sex ratio in our study area. A subsampling simulation study indicated that a reduced sampling effort representing 75% of the actual detections would still yield practically acceptable estimates of total size and sex ratio in our population. Hence, field work and financial effort could be reduced without compromising accuracy when the SCR model is used to estimate key population parameters of cryptic species.

Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

PubMed

Tanadini, Lorenzo G; Schmidt, Benedikt R

2011-01-01

Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of imperiled species.

Lake whitefish and lake herring population structure and niche in ten south-central Ontario lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carl, Leon M.; McGuiness, Fiona

2006-01-01

This study compares simple fish communities of ten oligotrophic lakes in south-central Ontario. Species densities and population size structure vary significantly among these lake communities depending on fish species present beyond the littoral zone. Lake whitefish are fewer and larger in the presence of lake herring than in their absence. Diet analysis indicates that lake whitefish shift from feeding on both plankton and benthic prey when lake herring are absent to a primarily benthic feeding niche in the presence of lake herring. When benthic round whitefish are present, lake whitefish size and density decline and they move lower in the lake compared to round whitefish. Burbot are also fewer and larger in lakes with lake herring than in lakes without herring. Burbot, in turn, appear to influence the population structure of benthic coregonine species. Lower densities of benthic lake whitefish and round whitefish are found in lakes containing large benthic burbot than in lakes with either small burbot or where burbot are absent. Predation on the pelagic larvae of burbot and lake whitefish by planktivorous lake herring alters the size and age structure of these populations. As life history theory predicts, those species with poor larval survival appear to adopt a bet-hedging life history strategy of long-lived individuals as a reproductive reserve.

Genetic Diversity in Introduced Populations with an Allee Effect

PubMed Central

Wittmann, Meike J.; Gabriel, Wilfried; Metzler, Dirk

2014-01-01

A phenomenon that strongly influences the demography of small introduced populations and thereby potentially their genetic diversity is the demographic Allee effect, a reduction in population growth rates at small population sizes. We take a stochastic modeling approach to investigate levels of genetic diversity in populations that successfully overcame either a strong Allee effect, in which populations smaller than a certain critical size are expected to decline, or a weak Allee effect, in which the population growth rate is reduced at small sizes but not negative. Our results indicate that compared to successful populations without an Allee effect, successful populations with a strong Allee effect tend to (1) derive from larger founder population sizes and thus have a higher initial amount of genetic variation, (2) spend fewer generations at small population sizes where genetic drift is particularly strong, and (3) spend more time around the critical population size and thus experience more genetic drift there. In the case of multiple introduction events, there is an additional increase in diversity because Allee-effect populations tend to derive from a larger number of introduction events than other populations. Altogether, a strong Allee effect can either increase or decrease genetic diversity, depending on the average founder population size. By contrast, a weak Allee effect tends to decrease genetic diversity across the entire range of founder population sizes. Finally, we show that it is possible in principle to infer critical population sizes from genetic data, although this would require information from many independently introduced populations. PMID:25009147

Bifurcation analysis of a discrete-time ratio-dependent predator-prey model with Allee Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Lifang; Cao, Hongjun

2016-09-01

A discrete-time predator-prey model with Allee effect is investigated in this paper. We consider the strong and the weak Allee effect (the population growth rate is negative and positive at low population density, respectively). From the stability analysis and the bifurcation diagrams, we get that the model with Allee effect (strong or weak) growth function and the model with logistic growth function have somewhat similar bifurcation structures. If the predator growth rate is smaller than its death rate, two species cannot coexist due to having no interior fixed points. When the predator growth rate is greater than its death rate and other parameters are fixed, the model can have two interior fixed points. One is always unstable, and the stability of the other is determined by the integral step size, which decides the species coexistence or not in some extent. If we increase the value of the integral step size, then the bifurcated period doubled orbits or invariant circle orbits may arise. So the numbers of the prey and the predator deviate from one stable state and then circulate along the period orbits or quasi-period orbits. When the integral step size is increased to a critical value, chaotic orbits may appear with many uncertain period-windows, which means that the numbers of prey and predator will be chaotic. In terms of bifurcation diagrams and phase portraits, we know that the complexity degree of the model with strong Allee effect decreases, which is related to the fact that the persistence of species can be determined by the initial species densities.

Individual-based modelling of population growth and diffusion in discrete time.

PubMed

Tkachenko, Natalie; Weissmann, John D; Petersen, Wesley P; Lake, George; Zollikofer, Christoph P E; Callegari, Simone

2017-01-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) of human populations capture spatio-temporal dynamics using rules that govern the birth, behavior, and death of individuals. We explore a stochastic IBM of logistic growth-diffusion with constant time steps and independent, simultaneous actions of birth, death, and movement that approaches the Fisher-Kolmogorov model in the continuum limit. This model is well-suited to parallelization on high-performance computers. We explore its emergent properties with analytical approximations and numerical simulations in parameter ranges relevant to human population dynamics and ecology, and reproduce continuous-time results in the limit of small transition probabilities. Our model prediction indicates that the population density and dispersal speed are affected by fluctuations in the number of individuals. The discrete-time model displays novel properties owing to the binomial character of the fluctuations: in certain regimes of the growth model, a decrease in time step size drives the system away from the continuum limit. These effects are especially important at local population sizes of <50 individuals, which largely correspond to group sizes of hunter-gatherers. As an application scenario, we model the late Pleistocene dispersal of Homo sapiens into the Americas, and discuss the agreement of model-based estimates of first-arrival dates with archaeological dates in dependence of IBM model parameter settings.

Population demography of an endangered lizard, the Blue Mountains Water Skink

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Information on the age structure within populations of an endangered species can facilitate effective management. The Blue Mountains Water Skink (Eulamprus leuraensis) is a viviparous scincid lizard that is restricted to < 40 isolated montane swamps in south-eastern Australia. We used skeletochronology of phalanges (corroborated by mark-recapture data) to estimate ages of 222 individuals from 13 populations. Results These lizards grow rapidly, from neonatal size (30 mm snout-vent length) to adult size (about 70 mm SVL) within two to three years. Fecundity is low (mean 2.9 offspring per litter) and is affected by maternal body length and age. Offspring quality may decline with maternal age, based upon captive-born neonates (older females gave birth to slower offspring). In contrast to its broadly sympatric (and abundant) congener E. tympanum, E. leuraensis is short-lived (maximum 6 years, vs 15 years for E. tympanum). Litter size and offspring size are similar in the two species, but female E. leuraensis reproduce annually whereas many E. tympanum produce litters biennially. Thus, a low survival rate (rather than delayed maturation or low annual fecundity) is the key reason why E. leuraensis is endangered. Our 13 populations exhibited similar growth rates and population age structures despite substantial variation in elevation, geographic location and swamp size. However, larger populations (based on a genetic estimate of effective population size) contained older lizards, and thus a wider variance in ages. Conclusion Our study suggests that low adult survival rates, as well as specialisation on a rare and fragmented habitat type (montane swamps) contribute to the endangered status of the Blue Mountains Water Skink. PMID:23402634

Determining the functional form of density dependence: deductive approaches for consumer-resource systems having a single resource.

PubMed

Abrams, Peter A

2009-09-01

Consumer-resource models are used to deduce the functional form of density dependence in the consumer population. A general approach to determining the form of consumer density dependence is proposed; this involves determining the equilibrium (or average) population size for a series of different harvest rates. The relationship between a consumer's mortality and its equilibrium population size is explored for several one-consumer/one-resource models. The shape of density dependence in the resource and the shape of the numerical and functional responses all tend to be "inherited" by the consumer's density dependence. Consumer-resource models suggest that density dependence will very often have both concave and convex segments, something that is impossible under the commonly used theta-logistic model. A range of consumer-resource models predicts that consumer population size often declines at a decelerating rate with mortality at low mortality rates, is insensitive to or increases with mortality over a wide range of intermediate mortalities, and declines at a rapidly accelerating rate with increased mortality when mortality is high. This has important implications for management and conservation of natural populations.

Public goods games in populations with fluctuating size.

PubMed

McAvoy, Alex; Fraiman, Nicolas; Hauert, Christoph; Wakeley, John; Nowak, Martin A

2018-05-01

Many mathematical frameworks of evolutionary game dynamics assume that the total population size is constant and that selection affects only the relative frequency of strategies. Here, we consider evolutionary game dynamics in an extended Wright-Fisher process with variable population size. In such a scenario, it is possible that the entire population becomes extinct. Survival of the population may depend on which strategy prevails in the game dynamics. Studying cooperative dilemmas, it is a natural feature of such a model that cooperators enable survival, while defectors drive extinction. Although defectors are favored for any mixed population, random drift could lead to their elimination and the resulting pure-cooperator population could survive. On the other hand, if the defectors remain, then the population will quickly go extinct because the frequency of cooperators steadily declines and defectors alone cannot survive. In a mutation-selection model, we find that (i) a steady supply of cooperators can enable long-term population survival, provided selection is sufficiently strong, and (ii) selection can increase the abundance of cooperators but reduce their relative frequency. Thus, evolutionary game dynamics in populations with variable size generate a multifaceted notion of what constitutes a trait's long-term success. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A three-stage colonization model for the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M; Mulligan, Connie J

2008-02-13

We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth approximately 40,000 and approximately 15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting approximately 15,000 years ago. These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas approximately 15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of approximately 1,000-5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods.

Population pharmacokinetics of temsirolimus and sirolimus in children with recurrent solid tumours: a report from the Children's Oncology Group.

PubMed

Mizuno, Tomoyuki; Fukuda, Tsuyoshi; Christians, Uwe; Perentesis, John P; Fouladi, Maryam; Vinks, Alexander A

2017-05-01

Temsirolimus is an inhibitor of the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR). Pharmacokinetic (PK) characterization of temsirolimus in children is limited and there is no paediatric temsirolimus population PK model available. The objective of this study was to simultaneously characterize the PK of temsirolimus and its metabolite sirolimus in paediatric patients with recurrent solid or central nervous system tumours and to develop a population PK model. The PK data for temsirolimus and sirolimus were collected as a part of a Children's Oncology Group phase I clinical trial in paediatric patients with recurrent solid tumours. Serial blood concentrations obtained from 19 patients participating in the PK portion of the study were used for the analysis. Population PK analysis was performed by nonlinear mixed effect modelling using NONMEM. A three-compartment model with zero-order infusion was found to best describe temsirolimus PK. Allometrically scaled body weight was included in the model to account for body size differences. Temsirolimus dose was identified as a significant covariate on clearance. A sirolimus metabolite formation model was developed and integrated with the temsirolimus model. A two-compartment structure model adequately described the sirolimus data. This study is the first to describe a population PK model of temsirolimus combined with sirolimus formation and disposition in paediatric patients. The developed model will facilitate PK model-based dose individualization of temsirolimus and the design of future clinical studies in children. © 2016 The British Pharmacological Society.

Do persistently fast-growing juveniles contribute disproportionately to population growth? A new analysis tool for matrix models and its application to rainforest trees.

PubMed

Zuidema, Pieter A; Brienen, Roel J W; During, Heinjo J; Güneralp, Burak

2009-11-01

Plants and animals often exhibit strong and persistent growth variation among individuals within a species. Persistently fast-growing individuals have a higher chance of reaching reproductive size, do so at a younger age, and therefore contribute disproportionately to population growth (lambda). Here we introduce a new approach to quantify this "fast-growth effect." We propose using age-size-structured matrix models in which persistently fast and slow growers are distinguished as they occur in relatively young and old age classes for a given size category. Life-cycle pathways involving fast growth can then be identified, and their contribution to lambda is quantified through loop analysis. We applied this approach to an example species, the tropical rainforest tree Cedrela odorata, that shows persistent growth variation among individuals. Loop analysis showed that juvenile trees reaching the 10-cm diameter class at below-median age contributed twice as much to lambda as slow juvenile growers. Fast growth to larger-diameter categories also contributed disproportionately to lambda. The results were robust to changes in parameter values and life-history trade-offs. These results show that the fast-growth effect can be strong in long-lived species. Persistent growth differences among individuals should therefore be accommodated for in demographic models and life-history studies.

Exact Hybrid Particle/Population Simulation of Rule-Based Models of Biochemical Systems

PubMed Central

Stover, Lori J.; Nair, Niketh S.; Faeder, James R.

2014-01-01

Detailed modeling and simulation of biochemical systems is complicated by the problem of combinatorial complexity, an explosion in the number of species and reactions due to myriad protein-protein interactions and post-translational modifications. Rule-based modeling overcomes this problem by representing molecules as structured objects and encoding their interactions as pattern-based rules. This greatly simplifies the process of model specification, avoiding the tedious and error prone task of manually enumerating all species and reactions that can potentially exist in a system. From a simulation perspective, rule-based models can be expanded algorithmically into fully-enumerated reaction networks and simulated using a variety of network-based simulation methods, such as ordinary differential equations or Gillespie's algorithm, provided that the network is not exceedingly large. Alternatively, rule-based models can be simulated directly using particle-based kinetic Monte Carlo methods. This “network-free” approach produces exact stochastic trajectories with a computational cost that is independent of network size. However, memory and run time costs increase with the number of particles, limiting the size of system that can be feasibly simulated. Here, we present a hybrid particle/population simulation method that combines the best attributes of both the network-based and network-free approaches. The method takes as input a rule-based model and a user-specified subset of species to treat as population variables rather than as particles. The model is then transformed by a process of “partial network expansion” into a dynamically equivalent form that can be simulated using a population-adapted network-free simulator. The transformation method has been implemented within the open-source rule-based modeling platform BioNetGen, and resulting hybrid models can be simulated using the particle-based simulator NFsim. Performance tests show that significant memory savings can be achieved using the new approach and a monetary cost analysis provides a practical measure of its utility. PMID:24699269

Exact hybrid particle/population simulation of rule-based models of biochemical systems.

PubMed

Hogg, Justin S; Harris, Leonard A; Stover, Lori J; Nair, Niketh S; Faeder, James R

2014-04-01

Detailed modeling and simulation of biochemical systems is complicated by the problem of combinatorial complexity, an explosion in the number of species and reactions due to myriad protein-protein interactions and post-translational modifications. Rule-based modeling overcomes this problem by representing molecules as structured objects and encoding their interactions as pattern-based rules. This greatly simplifies the process of model specification, avoiding the tedious and error prone task of manually enumerating all species and reactions that can potentially exist in a system. From a simulation perspective, rule-based models can be expanded algorithmically into fully-enumerated reaction networks and simulated using a variety of network-based simulation methods, such as ordinary differential equations or Gillespie's algorithm, provided that the network is not exceedingly large. Alternatively, rule-based models can be simulated directly using particle-based kinetic Monte Carlo methods. This "network-free" approach produces exact stochastic trajectories with a computational cost that is independent of network size. However, memory and run time costs increase with the number of particles, limiting the size of system that can be feasibly simulated. Here, we present a hybrid particle/population simulation method that combines the best attributes of both the network-based and network-free approaches. The method takes as input a rule-based model and a user-specified subset of species to treat as population variables rather than as particles. The model is then transformed by a process of "partial network expansion" into a dynamically equivalent form that can be simulated using a population-adapted network-free simulator. The transformation method has been implemented within the open-source rule-based modeling platform BioNetGen, and resulting hybrid models can be simulated using the particle-based simulator NFsim. Performance tests show that significant memory savings can be achieved using the new approach and a monetary cost analysis provides a practical measure of its utility.

Is Small Still Beautiful for the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire? Novel Findings Using Exploratory Structural Equation Modeling.

PubMed

Garrido, Luis Eduardo; Barrada, Juan Ramón; Aguasvivas, José Armando; Martínez-Molina, Agustín; Arias, Víctor B; Golino, Hudson F; Legaz, Eva; Ferrís, Gloria; Rojo-Moreno, Luis

2018-06-01

During the present decade a large body of research has employed confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to evaluate the factor structure of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) across multiple languages and cultures. However, because CFA can produce strongly biased estimations when the population cross-loadings differ meaningfully from zero, it may not be the most appropriate framework to model the SDQ responses. With this in mind, the current study sought to assess the factorial structure of the SDQ using the more flexible exploratory structural equation modeling approach. Using a large-scale Spanish sample composed of 67,253 youths aged between 10 and 18 years ( M = 14.16, SD = 1.07), the results showed that CFA provided a severely biased and overly optimistic assessment of the underlying structure of the SDQ. In contrast, exploratory structural equation modeling revealed a generally weak factorial structure, including questionable indicators with large cross-loadings, multiple error correlations, and significant wording variance. A subsequent Monte Carlo study showed that sample sizes greater than 4,000 would be needed to adequately recover the SDQ loading structure. The findings from this study prevent recommending the SDQ as a screening tool and suggest caution when interpreting previous results in the literature based on CFA modeling.

Evolution of cooperation in multilevel public goods games with community structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jing; Wu, Bin; Ho, Daniel W. C.; Wang, Long

2011-03-01

In a community-structured population, public goods games (PGG) occur both within and between communities. Such type of PGG is referred as multilevel public goods games (MPGG). We propose a minimalist evolutionary model of the MPGG and analytically study the evolution of cooperation. We demonstrate that in the case of sufficiently large community size and community number, if the imitation strength within community is weak, i.e., an individual imitates another one in the same community almost randomly, cooperation as well as punishment are more abundant than defection in the long run; if the imitation strength between communities is strong, i.e., the more successful strategy in two individuals from distinct communities is always imitated, cooperation and punishment are also more abundant. However, when both of the two imitation intensities are strong, defection becomes the most abundant strategy in the population. Our model provides insight into the investigation of the large-scale cooperation in public social dilemma among contemporary communities.

Hierarchical distance-sampling models to estimate population size and habitat-specific abundance of an island endemic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sillett, Scott T.; Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew; Kéry, Marc; Morrison, Scott A.

2012-01-01

Population size and habitat-specific abundance estimates are essential for conservation management. A major impediment to obtaining such estimates is that few statistical models are able to simultaneously account for both spatial variation in abundance and heterogeneity in detection probability, and still be amenable to large-scale applications. The hierarchical distance-sampling model of J. A. Royle, D. K. Dawson, and S. Bates provides a practical solution. Here, we extend this model to estimate habitat-specific abundance and rangewide population size of a bird species of management concern, the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis), which occurs solely on Santa Cruz Island, California, USA. We surveyed 307 randomly selected, 300 m diameter, point locations throughout the 250-km2 island during October 2008 and April 2009. Population size was estimated to be 2267 (95% CI 1613-3007) and 1705 (1212-2369) during the fall and spring respectively, considerably lower than a previously published but statistically problematic estimate of 12 500. This large discrepancy emphasizes the importance of proper survey design and analysis for obtaining reliable information for management decisions. Jays were most abundant in low-elevation chaparral habitat; the detection function depended primarily on the percent cover of chaparral and forest within count circles. Vegetation change on the island has been dramatic in recent decades, due to release from herbivory following the eradication of feral sheep (Ovis aries) from the majority of the island in the mid-1980s. We applied best-fit fall and spring models of habitat-specific jay abundance to a vegetation map from 1985, and estimated the population size of A. insularis was 1400-1500 at that time. The 20-30% increase in the jay population suggests that the species has benefited from the recovery of native vegetation since sheep removal. Nevertheless, this jay's tiny range and small population size make it vulnerable to natural disasters and to habitat alteration related to climate change. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical distance-sampling models hold promise for estimating population size and spatial density variation at large scales. Our statistical methods have been incorporated into the R package unmarked to facilitate their use by animal ecologists, and we provide annotated code in the Supplement.

Crossing lines: a multidisciplinary framework for assessing connectivity of hammerhead sharks across jurisdictional boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chin, A.; Simpfendorfer, C. A.; White, W. T.; Johnson, G. J.; McAuley, R. B.; Heupel, M. R.

2017-04-01

Conservation and management of migratory species can be complex and challenging. International agreements such as the Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) provide policy frameworks, but assessments and management can be hampered by lack of data and tractable mechanisms to integrate disparate datasets. An assessment of scalloped (Sphyrna lewini) and great (Sphyrna mokarran) hammerhead population structure and connectivity across northern Australia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) was conducted to inform management responses to CMS and Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species listings of these species. An Integrated Assessment Framework (IAF) was devised to systematically incorporate data across jurisdictions and create a regional synopsis, and amalgamated a suite of data from the Australasian region. Scalloped hammerhead populations are segregated by sex and size, with Australian populations dominated by juveniles and small adult males, while Indonesian and PNG populations included large adult females. The IAF process introduced genetic and tagging data to produce conceptual models of stock structure and movement. Several hypotheses were produced to explain stock structure and movement patterns, but more data are needed to identify the most likely hypothesis. This study demonstrates a process for assessing migratory species connectivity and highlights priority areas for hammerhead management and research.

Crossing lines: a multidisciplinary framework for assessing connectivity of hammerhead sharks across jurisdictional boundaries.

PubMed

Chin, A; Simpfendorfer, C A; White, W T; Johnson, G J; McAuley, R B; Heupel, M R

2017-04-21

Conservation and management of migratory species can be complex and challenging. International agreements such as the Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) provide policy frameworks, but assessments and management can be hampered by lack of data and tractable mechanisms to integrate disparate datasets. An assessment of scalloped (Sphyrna lewini) and great (Sphyrna mokarran) hammerhead population structure and connectivity across northern Australia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) was conducted to inform management responses to CMS and Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species listings of these species. An Integrated Assessment Framework (IAF) was devised to systematically incorporate data across jurisdictions and create a regional synopsis, and amalgamated a suite of data from the Australasian region. Scalloped hammerhead populations are segregated by sex and size, with Australian populations dominated by juveniles and small adult males, while Indonesian and PNG populations included large adult females. The IAF process introduced genetic and tagging data to produce conceptual models of stock structure and movement. Several hypotheses were produced to explain stock structure and movement patterns, but more data are needed to identify the most likely hypothesis. This study demonstrates a process for assessing migratory species connectivity and highlights priority areas for hammerhead management and research.

Feedbacks Between Soil Structure and Microbial Activities in Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, V. L.; Smith, A. P.; Fansler, S.; Varga, T.; Kemner, K. M.; McCue, L. A.

2017-12-01

Soil structure provides the physical framework for soil microbial habitats. The connectivity and size distribution of soil pores controls the microbial access to nutrient resources for growth and metabolism. Thus, a crucial component of soil research is how a soil's three-dimensional structure and organization influences its biological potential on a multitude of spatial and temporal scales. In an effort to understand microbial processes at scale more consistent with a microbial community, we have used soil aggregates as discrete units of soil microbial habitats. Our research has shown that mean pore diameter (x-ray computed tomography) of soil aggregates varies with the aggregate diameter itself. Analyzing both the bacterial composition (16S) and enzyme activities of individual aggregates showed significant differences in the relative abundances of key members the microbial communities associated with high enzyme activities compared to those with low activities, even though we observed no differences in the size of the biomass, nor in the overall richness or diversity of these communities. We hypothesize that resources and substrates have stimulated key populations in the aggregates identified as highly active, and as such, we conducted further research that explored how such key populations (i.e. fungal or bacterial dominated populations) alter pathways of C accumulation in aggregate size domains and microbial C utilization. Fungi support and stabilize soil structure through both physical and chemical effects of their hyphal networks. In contrast, bacterial-dominated communities are purported to facilitate micro- and fine aggregate stabilization. Here we quantify the direct effects fungal versus bacterial dominated communities on aggregate formation (both the rate of aggregation and the quality, quantity and distribution of SOC contained within aggregates). A quantitative understanding of the different mechanisms through which fungi or bacteria shape aggregate formation could alter how we currently treat our predictions of soil biogeochemistry. Current predictions are largely site- or biome-specific; quantitative mechanisms could underpin "rules" that operate at the pore-scale leading to more robust, mechanistic models.

Genetic structure of Culex erraticus populations across the Americas.

PubMed

Mendenhall, Ian H; Bahl, Justin; Blum, Michael J; Wesson, Dawn M

2012-05-01

Culex erraticus (Dyar & Knab) is a potential competent vector for several arboviruses such as Eastern and Venezuelan equine encephalitis viruses and West Nile virus. It therefore may play a role in the maintenance and spread of viral populations in areas of concern, including the United States where it occurs in >33 states. However, little information is available on potential barriers to movement across the species' distribution. Here, we analyze genetic variation among Cx. erraticus collected from Colombia, Guatemala, and nine locations in the United States to better understand population structure and connectivity. Comparative sequence analysis of the second internal transcribed spacer and mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase genes identified two major lineages of sampled populations. One lineage represented the central and eastern United States, whereas the other corresponded to Central America, South America, and the western United States. Hierarchical analysis of genetic variation provided further evidence of regional population structure, although the majority of genetic variation was found to reside within populations, suggestive of large population sizes. Although significant physical barriers such as the Chihuahuan Desert probably constrain the spread of Cx. erraticus, large population sizes and connectivity within regions remain important risk factors that probably contribute to the movement of arboviruses within and between these regions.

Go big or … don't? A field-based diet evaluation of freshwater piscivore and prey fish size relationships

PubMed Central

Ahrenstorff, Tyler D.; Diana, James S.; Fetzer, William W.; Jones, Thomas S.; Lawson, Zach J.; McInerny, Michael C.; Santucci, Victor J.; Vander Zanden, M. Jake

2018-01-01

Body size governs predator-prey interactions, which in turn structure populations, communities, and food webs. Understanding predator-prey size relationships is valuable from a theoretical perspective, in basic research, and for management applications. However, predator-prey size data are limited and costly to acquire. We quantified predator-prey total length and mass relationships for several freshwater piscivorous taxa: crappie (Pomoxis spp.), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), muskellunge (Esox masquinongy), northern pike (Esox lucius), rock bass (Ambloplites rupestris), smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and walleye (Sander vitreus). The range of prey total lengths increased with predator total length. The median and maximum ingested prey total length varied with predator taxon and length, but generally ranged from 10–20% and 32–46% of predator total length, respectively. Predators tended to consume larger fusiform prey than laterally compressed prey. With the exception of large muskellunge, predators most commonly consumed prey between 16 and 73 mm. A sensitivity analysis indicated estimates can be very accurate at sample sizes greater than 1,000 diet items and fairly accurate at sample sizes greater than 100. However, sample sizes less than 50 should be evaluated with caution. Furthermore, median log10 predator-prey body mass ratios ranged from 1.9–2.5, nearly 50% lower than values previously reported for freshwater fishes. Managers, researchers, and modelers could use our findings as a tool for numerous predator-prey evaluations from stocking size optimization to individual-based bioenergetics analyses identifying prey size structure. To this end, we have developed a web-based user interface to maximize the utility of our models that can be found at www.LakeEcologyLab.org/pred_prey. PMID:29543856

Go big or … don't? A field-based diet evaluation of freshwater piscivore and prey fish size relationships.

PubMed

Gaeta, Jereme W; Ahrenstorff, Tyler D; Diana, James S; Fetzer, William W; Jones, Thomas S; Lawson, Zach J; McInerny, Michael C; Santucci, Victor J; Vander Zanden, M Jake

2018-01-01

Body size governs predator-prey interactions, which in turn structure populations, communities, and food webs. Understanding predator-prey size relationships is valuable from a theoretical perspective, in basic research, and for management applications. However, predator-prey size data are limited and costly to acquire. We quantified predator-prey total length and mass relationships for several freshwater piscivorous taxa: crappie (Pomoxis spp.), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), muskellunge (Esox masquinongy), northern pike (Esox lucius), rock bass (Ambloplites rupestris), smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and walleye (Sander vitreus). The range of prey total lengths increased with predator total length. The median and maximum ingested prey total length varied with predator taxon and length, but generally ranged from 10-20% and 32-46% of predator total length, respectively. Predators tended to consume larger fusiform prey than laterally compressed prey. With the exception of large muskellunge, predators most commonly consumed prey between 16 and 73 mm. A sensitivity analysis indicated estimates can be very accurate at sample sizes greater than 1,000 diet items and fairly accurate at sample sizes greater than 100. However, sample sizes less than 50 should be evaluated with caution. Furthermore, median log10 predator-prey body mass ratios ranged from 1.9-2.5, nearly 50% lower than values previously reported for freshwater fishes. Managers, researchers, and modelers could use our findings as a tool for numerous predator-prey evaluations from stocking size optimization to individual-based bioenergetics analyses identifying prey size structure. To this end, we have developed a web-based user interface to maximize the utility of our models that can be found at www.LakeEcologyLab.org/pred_prey.

Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

PubMed Central

Meyer, Carolyn B.; Meyer, Joseph S.; Francisco, Alex B.; Holder, Jennifer; Verdonck, Frederik

2016-01-01

Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix), common buzzard (Buteo buteo), and red kite (Milvus milvus). We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4–16% of mortality, depending on species) and poisons (4–46% of mortality) reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe), stable for buzzard (in Germany), and increasing for red kite (in Wales). Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%). The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently feed on carrion. PMID:26799815

Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

PubMed

Meyer, Carolyn B; Meyer, Joseph S; Francisco, Alex B; Holder, Jennifer; Verdonck, Frederik

2016-01-01

Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix), common buzzard (Buteo buteo), and red kite (Milvus milvus). We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4-16% of mortality, depending on species) and poisons (4-46% of mortality) reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe), stable for buzzard (in Germany), and increasing for red kite (in Wales). Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%). The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently feed on carrion.

Incorporating detection probability into northern Great Plains pronghorn population estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacques, Christopher N.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Grovenburg, Troy W.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.

2014-01-01

Pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) abundances commonly are estimated using fixed-wing surveys, but these estimates are likely to be negatively biased because of violations of key assumptions underpinning line-transect methodology. Reducing bias and improving precision of abundance estimates through use of detection probability and mark-resight models may allow for more responsive pronghorn management actions. Given their potential application in population estimation, we evaluated detection probability and mark-resight models for use in estimating pronghorn population abundance. We used logistic regression to quantify probabilities that detecting pronghorn might be influenced by group size, animal activity, percent vegetation, cover type, and topography. We estimated pronghorn population size by study area and year using mixed logit-normal mark-resight (MLNM) models. Pronghorn detection probability increased with group size, animal activity, and percent vegetation; overall detection probability was 0.639 (95% CI = 0.612–0.667) with 396 of 620 pronghorn groups detected. Despite model selection uncertainty, the best detection probability models were 44% (range = 8–79%) and 180% (range = 139–217%) greater than traditional pronghorn population estimates. Similarly, the best MLNM models were 28% (range = 3–58%) and 147% (range = 124–180%) greater than traditional population estimates. Detection probability of pronghorn was not constant but depended on both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. When pronghorn detection probability is a function of animal group size, animal activity, landscape complexity, and percent vegetation, traditional aerial survey techniques will result in biased pronghorn abundance estimates. Standardizing survey conditions, increasing resighting occasions, or accounting for variation in individual heterogeneity in mark-resight models will increase the accuracy and precision of pronghorn population estimates.

Peer pressure and incentive mechanisms in social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Chuang; Ye, Chao; Wang, Lin; Rong, Zhihai; Wang, Xiaofan

2018-01-01

Cooperation can be viewed as a social norm that is expected in our society. In this work, a framework based on spatial public goods game theory is established to study how peer pressure and incentive mechanisms can influence the evolution of cooperation. A unified model with adjustable parameters is developed to represent the effects of pure Personal Mechanism, Personal Mechanism with peer pressure and Social Mechanism, which demonstrates that when the sum of rewards plus the peer pressure felt by defectors is larger than the effective cost of cooperation, cooperation can prevail. As the peer pressure is caused by other cooperators in a game, group size and network structure play an important role. In particular, larger group size and more heterogeneous structured population can make defectors feel more peer pressure, which will promote the evolution and sustainment of cooperation.

Population genetic structure of Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in the Southeast Pacific and Southwest Atlantic Ocean

PubMed Central

Canales-Aguirre, Cristian B.; Galleguillos, Ricardo; Oyarzun, Fernanda X.; Hernández, Cristián E.

2018-01-01

Previous studies of population genetic structure in Dissostichus eleginoides have shown that oceanographic and geographic discontinuities drive in this species population differentiation. Studies have focused on the genetics of D. eleginoides in the Southern Ocean; however, there is little knowledge of their genetic variation along the South American continental shelf. In this study, we used a panel of six microsatellites to test whether D. eleginoides shows population genetic structuring in this region. We hypothesized that this species would show zero or very limited genetic structuring due to the habitat continuity along the South American shelf from Peru in the Pacific Ocean to the Falkland Islands in the Atlantic Ocean. We used Bayesian and traditional analyses to evaluate population genetic structure, and we estimated the number of putative migrants and effective population size. Consistent with our predictions, our results showed no significant genetic structuring among populations of the South American continental shelf but supported two significant and well-defined genetic clusters of D. eleginoides between regions (South American continental shelf and South Georgia clusters). Genetic connectivity between these two clusters was 11.3% of putative migrants from the South American cluster to the South Georgia Island and 0.7% in the opposite direction. Effective population size was higher in locations from the South American continental shelf as compared with the South Georgia Island. Overall, our results support that the continuity of the deep-sea habitat along the continental shelf and the biological features of the study species are plausible drivers of intraspecific population genetic structuring across the distribution of D. eleginoides on the South American continental shelf. PMID:29362690

Appropriate evidence sources for populating decision analytic models within health technology assessment (HTA): a systematic review of HTA manuals and health economic guidelines.

PubMed

Zechmeister-Koss, Ingrid; Schnell-Inderst, Petra; Zauner, Günther

2014-04-01

An increasing number of evidence sources are relevant for populating decision analytic models. What is needed is detailed methodological advice on which type of data is to be used for what type of model parameter. We aim to identify standards in health technology assessment manuals and economic (modeling) guidelines on appropriate evidence sources and on the role different types of data play within a model. Documents were identified via a call among members of the International Network of Agencies for Health Technology Assessment and by hand search. We included documents from Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand as well as transnational guidelines written in English or German. We systematically summarized in a narrative manner information on appropriate evidence sources for model parameters, their advantages and limitations, data identification methods, and data quality issues. A large variety of evidence sources for populating models are mentioned in the 28 documents included. They comprise research- and non-research-based sources. Valid and less appropriate sources are identified for informing different types of model parameters, such as clinical effect size, natural history of disease, resource use, unit costs, and health state utility values. Guidelines do not provide structured and detailed advice on this issue. The article does not include information from guidelines in languages other than English or German, and the information is not tailored to specific modeling techniques. The usability of guidelines and manuals for modeling could be improved by addressing the issue of evidence sources in a more structured and comprehensive format.

The relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and population size: an assessment of regional and temporal variation, 1960-2005.

PubMed

Jorgenson, Andrew K; Clark, Brett

2013-01-01

This study examines the regional and temporal differences in the statistical relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and national-level population size. The authors analyze panel data from 1960 to 2005 for a diverse sample of nations, and employ descriptive statistics and rigorous panel regression modeling techniques. Initial descriptive analyses indicate that all regions experienced overall increases in carbon emissions and population size during the 45-year period of investigation, but with notable differences. For carbon emissions, the sample of countries in Asia experienced the largest percent increase, followed by countries in Latin America, Africa, and lastly the sample of relatively affluent countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania combined. For population size, the sample of countries in Africa experienced the largest percent increase, followed countries in Latin America, Asia, and the combined sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Findings for two-way fixed effects panel regression elasticity models of national-level carbon emissions indicate that the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size is much smaller for nations in Africa than for nations in other regions of the world. Regarding potential temporal changes, from 1960 to 2005 the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size decreased by 25% for the sample of Africa countries, 14% for the sample of Asia countries, 6.5% for the sample of Latin America countries, but remained the same in size for the sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Overall, while population size continues to be the primary driver of total national-level anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, the findings for this study highlight the need for future research and policies to recognize that the actual impacts of population size on national-level carbon emissions differ across both time and region.

Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum.

PubMed

Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

2015-07-07

The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000-19,000 y ago (27-19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30-13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe.

Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

2015-01-01

The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000–19,000 y ago (27–19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30–13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. PMID:26100880

Predictive evaluation of size restrictions as management strategies for tennessee reservoir crappie fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Isermann, D.A.; Sammons, S.M.; Bettoli, P.W.; Churchill, T.N.

2002-01-01

We evaluated the potential effect of minimum size restrictions on crappies Pomoxis spp. in 12 large Tennessee reservoirs. A Beverton-Holt equilibrium yield model was used to predict and compare the response of these fisheries to three minimum size restrictions: 178 mm (i.e., pragmatically, no size limit), 229 mm, and the current statewide limit of 254 mm. The responses of crappie fisheries to size limits differed among reservoirs and varied with rates of conditional natural mortality (CM). Based on model results, crappie fisheries fell into one of three response categories: (1) In some reservoirs (N = 5), 254-mm and 229-mm limits would benefit the fishery in terms of yield if CM were low (30%); the associated declines in the number of crappies harvested would be significant but modest when compared with those in other reservoirs. (2) In other reservoirs (N = 6), little difference in yield existed among size restrictions at low to intermediate rates of CM (30-40%). In these reservoirs, a 229-mm limit was predicted to be a more beneficial regulation than the current 254-mm limit. (3) In the remaining reservoir, Tellico, size limits negatively affected all three harvest statistics. Generally, yield was negatively affected by size limits in all populations at a CM of 50%. The number of crappies reaching 300 mm was increased by size limits in most model scenarios: however, associated declines in the total number of crappies harvested often outweighed the benefits to size structure when CM was 40% or higher. When crappie growth was fast (reaching 254 mm in less than 3 years) and CM was low (30%), size limits were most effective in balancing increases in yield and size structure against declines in the total number of crappies harvested. The variability in predicted size-limit responses observed among Tennessee reservoirs suggests that using a categorical approach to applying size limits to crappie fisheries within a state or region would likely be a more effective management strategy than implementing a single, areawide regulation.

Applications of bioenergetics models to fish ecology and management: where do we go from here?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Boisclair, Daniel; Brandt, Stephen B.; Hewett, Steven W.; Kitchell, James F.; Lucas, Martyn C.; Ney, John J.

1993-01-01

Papers and panel discussions given during a 1992 symposium on bioenergetics models are summarized. Bioenergetics models have been applied to a variety of research and management questions related to fish stocks, populations, food webs, and ecosystems. Applications include estimates of the intensity and dynamics of predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling within aquatic food webs of varying trophic structure, and food requirements of single animals, whole populations, and communities of fishes. As tools in food web and ecosystem applications, bioenergetics models have been used to compare forage consumption by salmonid predators across the Laurentian Great Lakes for single populations and whole communities, and to estimate the growth potential of pelagic predators in Chesapeake Bay and Lake Ontario. Some critics say that bioenergetics models lack sufficient detail to produce reliable results in such field applications, whereas others say that the models are too complex to be useful tools for fishery managers. Nevertheless, bioenergetics models have achieved notable predictive successes. Improved estimates are needed for model parameters such as metabolic costs of activity, and more complete studies are needed of the bioenergetics of larval and juvenile fishes. Future research on bioenergetics should include laboratory and field measurements of key model parameters such as weight-dependent maximum consumption, respiration and activity, and thermal habitats actually occupied by fish. Future applications of bioenergetics models to fish populations also depend on accurate estimates of population sizes and survival rates.

Population pharmacokinetics of temsirolimus and sirolimus in children with recurrent solid tumours: a report from the Children's Oncology Group

PubMed Central

Mizuno, Tomoyuki; Fukuda, Tsuyoshi; Christians, Uwe; Perentesis, John P.; Fouladi, Maryam

2016-01-01

Aims Temsirolimus is an inhibitor of the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR). Pharmacokinetic (PK) characterization of temsirolimus in children is limited and there is no paediatric temsirolimus population PK model available. The objective of this study was to simultaneously characterize the PK of temsirolimus and its metabolite sirolimus in paediatric patients with recurrent solid or central nervous system tumours and to develop a population PK model. Methods The PK data for temsirolimus and sirolimus were collected as a part of a Children's Oncology Group phase I clinical trial in paediatric patients with recurrent solid tumours. Serial blood concentrations obtained from 19 patients participating in the PK portion of the study were used for the analysis. Population PK analysis was performed by nonlinear mixed effect modelling using NONMEM. Results A three‐compartment model with zero‐order infusion was found to best describe temsirolimus PK. Allometrically scaled body weight was included in the model to account for body size differences. Temsirolimus dose was identified as a significant covariate on clearance. A sirolimus metabolite formation model was developed and integrated with the temsirolimus model. A two‐compartment structure model adequately described the sirolimus data. Conclusion This study is the first to describe a population PK model of temsirolimus combined with sirolimus formation and disposition in paediatric patients. The developed model will facilitate PK model‐based dose individualization of temsirolimus and the design of future clinical studies in children. PMID:28000286

Maintenance of algal endosymbionts in Paramecium bursaria: a simple model based on population dynamics.

PubMed

Iwai, Sosuke; Fujiwara, Kenji; Tamura, Takuro

2016-09-01

Algal endosymbiosis is widely distributed in eukaryotes including many protists and metazoans, and plays important roles in aquatic ecosystems, combining phagotrophy and phototrophy. To maintain a stable symbiotic relationship, endosymbiont population size in the host must be properly regulated and maintained at a constant level; however, the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of algal endosymbionts are still largely unknown. Here we investigate the population dynamics of the unicellular ciliate Paramecium bursaria and its Chlorella-like algal endosymbiont under various experimental conditions in a simple culture system. Our results suggest that endosymbiont population size in P. bursaria was not regulated by active processes such as cell division coupling between the two organisms, or partitioning of the endosymbionts at host cell division. Regardless, endosymbiont population size was eventually adjusted to a nearly constant level once cells were grown with light and nutrients. To explain this apparent regulation of population size, we propose a simple mechanism based on the different growth properties (specifically the nutrient requirements) of the two organisms, and based from this develop a mathematical model to describe the population dynamics of host and endosymbiont. The proposed mechanism and model may provide a basis for understanding the maintenance of algal endosymbionts. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Application of a time-dependent coalescence process for inferring the history of population size changes from DNA sequence data.

PubMed

Polanski, A; Kimmel, M; Chakraborty, R

1998-05-12

Distribution of pairwise differences of nucleotides from data on a sample of DNA sequences from a given segment of the genome has been used in the past to draw inferences about the past history of population size changes. However, all earlier methods assume a given model of population size changes (such as sudden expansion), parameters of which (e.g., time and amplitude of expansion) are fitted to the observed distributions of nucleotide differences among pairwise comparisons of all DNA sequences in the sample. Our theory indicates that for any time-dependent population size, N(tau) (in which time tau is counted backward from present), a time-dependent coalescence process yields the distribution, p(tau), of the time of coalescence between two DNA sequences randomly drawn from the population. Prediction of p(tau) and N(tau) requires the use of a reverse Laplace transform known to be unstable. Nevertheless, simulated data obtained from three models of monotone population change (stepwise, exponential, and logistic) indicate that the pattern of a past population size change leaves its signature on the pattern of DNA polymorphism. Application of the theory to the published mtDNA sequences indicates that the current mtDNA sequence variation is not inconsistent with a logistic growth of the human population.

Modeling the impacts of hunting on the population dynamics of red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiederholt, Ruscena; Fernandez-Duque, Eduardo; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rudran, Rasanayagam

2010-01-01

Overexploitation of wildlife populations occurs across the humid tropics and is a significant threat to the long-term survival of large-bodied primates. To investigate the impacts of hunting on primates and ways to mitigate them, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model for a landscape that included hunted and un-hunted areas. We used the large-bodied neotropical red howler monkey (Alouatta seniculus) as our case study species because its life history characteristics make it vulnerable to hunting. We modeled the influence of different rates of harvest and proportions of landscape dedicated to un-hunted reserves on population persistence, population size, social dynamics, and hunting yields of red howler monkeys. In most scenarios, the un-hunted populations maintained a constant density regardless of hunting pressure elsewhere, and allowed the overall population to persist. Therefore, the overall population was quite resilient to extinction; only in scenarios without any un-hunted areas did the population go extinct. However, the total and hunted populations did experience large declines over 100 years under moderate and high hunting pressure. In addition, when reserve area decreased, population losses and losses per unit area increased disproportionately. Furthermore, hunting disrupted the social structure of troops. The number of male turnovers and infanticides increased in hunted populations, while birth rates decreased and exacerbated population losses due to hunting. Finally, our results indicated that when more than 55% of the landscape was harvested at high (30%) rates, hunting yields, as measured by kilograms of biomass, were less than those obtained from moderate harvest rates. Additionally, hunting yields, expressed as the number of individuals hunted/year/km2, increased in proximity to un-hunted areas, and suggested that dispersal from un-hunted areas may have contributed to hunting sustainability. These results indicate that un-hunted areas serve to enhance hunting yields, population size, and population persistence in hunted landscapes. Therefore, spatial regulation of hunting via a reserve system may be an effective management strategy for sustainable hunting, and we recommend it because it may also be more feasible to implement than harvest quotas or restrictions on season length.

Variation in Age and Size in Fennoscandian Three-Spined Sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

PubMed Central

DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2013-01-01

Average age and maximum life span of breeding adult three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were determined in eight Fennoscandian localities with the aid of skeletochronology. The average age varied from 1.8 to 3.6 years, and maximum life span from three to six years depending on the locality. On average, fish from marine populations were significantly older than those from freshwater populations, but variation within habitat types was large. We also found significant differences in mean body size among different habitat types and populations, but only the population differences remained significant after accounting for variation due to age effects. These results show that generation length and longevity in three-spined sticklebacks can vary significantly from one locality to another, and that population differences in mean body size cannot be explained as a simple consequence of differences in population age structure. We also describe a nanistic population from northern Finland exhibiting long life span and small body size. PMID:24260496

Variation in age and size in Fennoscandian three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus).

PubMed

DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2013-01-01

Average age and maximum life span of breeding adult three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were determined in eight Fennoscandian localities with the aid of skeletochronology. The average age varied from 1.8 to 3.6 years, and maximum life span from three to six years depending on the locality. On average, fish from marine populations were significantly older than those from freshwater populations, but variation within habitat types was large. We also found significant differences in mean body size among different habitat types and populations, but only the population differences remained significant after accounting for variation due to age effects. These results show that generation length and longevity in three-spined sticklebacks can vary significantly from one locality to another, and that population differences in mean body size cannot be explained as a simple consequence of differences in population age structure. We also describe a nanistic population from northern Finland exhibiting long life span and small body size.

Lattice model for amyloid peptides: OPEP force field parametrization and applications to the nucleus size of Alzheimer’s peptides

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tran, Thanh Thuy; Nguyen, Phuong H., E-mail: phuong.nguyen@ibpc.fr; Derreumaux, Philippe, E-mail: philippe.derreumaux@ibpc.fr

Coarse-grained protein lattice models approximate atomistic details and keep the essential interactions. They are, therefore, suitable for capturing generic features of protein folding and amyloid formation at low computational cost. As our aim is to study the critical nucleus sizes of two experimentally well-characterized peptide fragments Aβ{sub 16−22} and Aβ{sub 37−42} of the full length Aβ{sub 1−42} Alzheimer’s peptide, it is important that simulations with the lattice model reproduce all-atom simulations. In this study, we present a comprehensive force field parameterization based on the OPEP (Optimized Potential for Efficient protein structure Prediction) force field for an on-lattice protein model, whichmore » incorporates explicitly the formation of hydrogen bonds and directions of side-chains. Our bottom-up approach starts with the determination of the best lattice force parameters for the Aβ{sub 16−22} dimer by fitting its equilibrium parallel and anti-parallel β-sheet populations to all-atom simulation results. Surprisingly, the calibrated force field is transferable to the trimer of Aβ{sub 16−22} and the dimer and trimer of Aβ{sub 37−42}. Encouraged by this finding, we characterized the free energy landscapes of the two decamers. The dominant structure of the Aβ{sub 16−22} decamer matches the microcrystal structure. Pushing the simulations for aggregates between 4-mer and 12-mer suggests a nucleus size for fibril formation of 10 chains. In contrast, the Aβ{sub 37−42} decamer is largely disordered with mixed by parallel and antiparallel chains, suggesting that the nucleus size is >10 peptides. Our refined force field coupled to this on-lattice model should provide useful insights into the critical nucleation number associated with neurodegenerative diseases.« less

Point process models for localization and interdependence of punctate cellular structures.

PubMed

Li, Ying; Majarian, Timothy D; Naik, Armaghan W; Johnson, Gregory R; Murphy, Robert F

2016-07-01

Accurate representations of cellular organization for multiple eukaryotic cell types are required for creating predictive models of dynamic cellular function. To this end, we have previously developed the CellOrganizer platform, an open source system for generative modeling of cellular components from microscopy images. CellOrganizer models capture the inherent heterogeneity in the spatial distribution, size, and quantity of different components among a cell population. Furthermore, CellOrganizer can generate quantitatively realistic synthetic images that reflect the underlying cell population. A current focus of the project is to model the complex, interdependent nature of organelle localization. We built upon previous work on developing multiple non-parametric models of organelles or structures that show punctate patterns. The previous models described the relationships between the subcellular localization of puncta and the positions of cell and nuclear membranes and microtubules. We extend these models to consider the relationship to the endoplasmic reticulum (ER), and to consider the relationship between the positions of different puncta of the same type. Our results do not suggest that the punctate patterns we examined are dependent on ER position or inter- and intra-class proximity. With these results, we built classifiers to update previous assignments of proteins to one of 11 patterns in three distinct cell lines. Our generative models demonstrate the ability to construct statistically accurate representations of puncta localization from simple cellular markers in distinct cell types, capturing the complex phenomena of cellular structure interaction with little human input. This protocol represents a novel approach to vesicular protein annotation, a field that is often neglected in high-throughput microscopy. These results suggest that spatial point process models provide useful insight with respect to the spatial dependence between cellular structures. © 2016 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry. © 2016 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry.

Estimating the size of an open population using sparse capture-recapture data.

PubMed

Huggins, Richard; Stoklosa, Jakub; Roach, Cameron; Yip, Paul

2018-03-01

Sparse capture-recapture data from open populations are difficult to analyze using currently available frequentist statistical methods. However, in closed capture-recapture experiments, the Chao sparse estimator (Chao, 1989, Biometrics 45, 427-438) may be used to estimate population sizes when there are few recaptures. Here, we extend the Chao (1989) closed population size estimator to the open population setting by using linear regression and extrapolation techniques. We conduct a small simulation study and apply the models to several sparse capture-recapture data sets. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Vector-Borne Pathogen and Host Evolution in a Structured Immuno-Epidemiological System.

PubMed

Gulbudak, Hayriye; Cannataro, Vincent L; Tuncer, Necibe; Martcheva, Maia

2017-02-01

Vector-borne disease transmission is a common dissemination mode used by many pathogens to spread in a host population. Similar to directly transmitted diseases, the within-host interaction of a vector-borne pathogen and a host's immune system influences the pathogen's transmission potential between hosts via vectors. Yet there are few theoretical studies on virulence-transmission trade-offs and evolution in vector-borne pathogen-host systems. Here, we consider an immuno-epidemiological model that links the within-host dynamics to between-host circulation of a vector-borne disease. On the immunological scale, the model mimics antibody-pathogen dynamics for arbovirus diseases, such as Rift Valley fever and West Nile virus. The within-host dynamics govern transmission and host mortality and recovery in an age-since-infection structured host-vector-borne pathogen epidemic model. By considering multiple pathogen strains and multiple competing host populations differing in their within-host replication rate and immune response parameters, respectively, we derive evolutionary optimization principles for both pathogen and host. Invasion analysis shows that the [Formula: see text] maximization principle holds for the vector-borne pathogen. For the host, we prove that evolution favors minimizing case fatality ratio (CFR). These results are utilized to compute host and pathogen evolutionary trajectories and to determine how model parameters affect evolution outcomes. We find that increasing the vector inoculum size increases the pathogen [Formula: see text], but can either increase or decrease the pathogen virulence (the host CFR), suggesting that vector inoculum size can contribute to virulence of vector-borne diseases in distinct ways.

Population structure in Japanese rice population

PubMed Central

Yamasaki, Masanori; Ideta, Osamu

2013-01-01

It is essential to elucidate genetic diversity and relationships among even related individuals and populations for plant breeding and genetic analysis. Since Japanese rice breeding has improved agronomic traits such as yield and eating quality, modern Japanese rice cultivars originated from narrow genetic resource and closely related. To resolve the population structure and genetic diversity in Japanese rice population, we used a total of 706 alleles detected by 134 simple sequence repeat markers in a total of 114 cultivars composed of 94 improved varieties and 20 landraces, which are representative and important for Japanese rice breeding. The landraces exhibit greater gene diversity than improved lines, suggesting that landraces can provide additional genetic diversity for future breeding. Model-based Bayesian clustering analysis revealed six subgroups and admixture situation in the cultivars, showing good agreement with pedigree information. This method could be superior to phylogenetic method in classifying a related population. The leading Japanese rice cultivar, Koshihikari is unique due to the specific genome constitution. We defined Japanese rice diverse sets that capture the maximum number of alleles for given sample sizes. These sets are useful for a variety of genetic application in Japanese rice cultivars. PMID:23641181

New body mass estimates of British Pleistocene wolves: Palaeoenvironmental implications and competitive interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flower, L. O. H.

2016-10-01

Body mass was reconstructed for early Middle Pleistocene Canis mosbachensis and late Middle to Late Pleistocene Canis lupus from key assemblages in Britain, to explore the presence of temporal size variability and whether size fluctuations were related to changes in climate and environment or to differences in Pleistocene carnivore community structure. Using the well-known body mass predictor of lower carnassial (m1) tooth length, combined with an extant canid dataset incorporating 25 species, least squares regression was used to assess allometric scaling prior to modelling the relationship between body mass and m1 length, producing a new predictive equation of Pleistocene canid body mass. The medium-sized C. mosbachensis had relatively stable body mass, with remarkable consistency in size compared to populations in the late Early Pleistocene of Europe. Periodical fluctuations in climatic conditions had a minimal effect on C. mosbachensis size over time, with the terrestrial connection between Britain and mainland Europe at this time key in promoting body mass stability by enabling movement away from less favourable conditions and to follow prey into refugia. Overall changes in carnivore guild structure were of minimal influence to C. mosbachensis in Britain, as the continued predominance of larger carnivores, in particular a larger canid, effectively constrained C. mosbachensis. In contrast, the body mass of larger-sized C. lupus was highly temporally varied, with an increasing size trend evident into the Devensian. Similar body size in the penultimate interglacial (MIS 7) and Middle Devensian (MIS 3) populations likely reflects palaeoenvironmental similarity and comparable carnivore community and prey spectrums, with larger predators effectively constraining C. lupus. However, the severely cold conditions of the Early Devensian (MIS 5a) may have caused a Bergmannian response in wolves, leading to their comparatively much larger size, with C. lupus further ecologically "liberated" by an absence of larger multiple larger predators at this time.

The growth of discs and bulges during hierarchical galaxy formation - II. Metallicity, stellar populations and dynamical evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, C.; Mutch, S. J.; Wyithe, J. S. B.; Croton, D. J.

2017-03-01

We investigate the properties of the stellar populations of model galaxies as a function of galaxy evolutionary history and angular momentum content. We use the new semi-analytic model presented in Tonini et al. This new model follows the angular momentum evolution of gas and stars, providing the base for a new star formation recipe, and treatment of the effects of mergers that depends on the central galaxy dynamical structure. We find that the new recipes have the effect of boosting the efficiency of the baryonic cycle in producing and recycling metals, as well as preventing minor mergers from diluting the metallicity of bulges and ellipticals. The model reproduces the stellar mass-stellar metallicity relation for galaxies above 1010 solar masses, including Brightest Cluster Galaxies. Model discs, galaxies dominated by instability-driven components, and merger-driven objects each stem from different evolutionary channels. These model galaxies therefore occupy different loci in the galaxy mass-size relation, which we find to be in accord with the ATLAS 3D classification of disc galaxies, fast rotators and slow rotators. We find that the stellar populations' properties depend on the galaxy evolutionary type, with more evolved stellar populations being part of systems that have lost or dissipated more angular momentum during their assembly history.

Importance of dispersal routes that minimize open-ocean movement to the genetic structure of island populations.

PubMed

Harradine, E L; Andrew, M E; Thomas, J W; How, R A; Schmitt, L H; Spencer, P B S

2015-12-01

Islands present a unique scenario in conservation biology, offering refuge yet imposing limitations on insular populations. The Kimberley region of northwestern Australia has more than 2500 islands that have recently come into focus as substantial conservation resources. It is therefore of great interest for managers to understand the driving forces of genetic structure of species within these island archipelagos. We used the ubiquitous bar-shouldered skink (Ctenotus inornatus) as a model species to represent the influence of landscape factors on genetic structure across the Kimberley islands. On 41 islands and 4 mainland locations in a remote area of Australia, we genotyped individuals across 18 nuclear (microsatellite) markers. Measures of genetic differentiation and diversity were used in two complementary analyses. We used circuit theory and Mantel tests to examine the influence of the landscape matrix on population connectivity and linear regression and model selection based on Akaike's information criterion to investigate landscape controls on genetic diversity. Genetic differentiation between islands was best predicted with circuit-theory models that accounted for the large difference in resistance to dispersal between land and ocean. In contrast, straight-line distances were unrelated to either resistance distances or genetic differentiation. Instead, connectivity was determined by island-hopping routes that allow organisms to minimize the distance of difficult ocean passages. Island populations of C. inornatus retained varying degrees of genetic diversity (NA = 1.83 - 7.39), but it was greatest on islands closer to the mainland, in terms of resistance-distance units. In contrast, genetic diversity was unrelated to island size. Our results highlight the potential for islands to contribute to both theoretical and applied conservation, provide strong evidence of the driving forces of population structure within undisturbed landscapes, and identify the islands most valuable for conservation based on their contributions to gene flow and genetic diversity. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Efficient computation of the joint sample frequency spectra for multiple populations.

PubMed

Kamm, John A; Terhorst, Jonathan; Song, Yun S

2017-01-01

A wide range of studies in population genetics have employed the sample frequency spectrum (SFS), a summary statistic which describes the distribution of mutant alleles at a polymorphic site in a sample of DNA sequences and provides a highly efficient dimensional reduction of large-scale population genomic variation data. Recently, there has been much interest in analyzing the joint SFS data from multiple populations to infer parameters of complex demographic histories, including variable population sizes, population split times, migration rates, admixture proportions, and so on. SFS-based inference methods require accurate computation of the expected SFS under a given demographic model. Although much methodological progress has been made, existing methods suffer from numerical instability and high computational complexity when multiple populations are involved and the sample size is large. In this paper, we present new analytic formulas and algorithms that enable accurate, efficient computation of the expected joint SFS for thousands of individuals sampled from hundreds of populations related by a complex demographic model with arbitrary population size histories (including piecewise-exponential growth). Our results are implemented in a new software package called momi (MOran Models for Inference). Through an empirical study we demonstrate our improvements to numerical stability and computational complexity.

Efficient computation of the joint sample frequency spectra for multiple populations

PubMed Central

Kamm, John A.; Terhorst, Jonathan; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

A wide range of studies in population genetics have employed the sample frequency spectrum (SFS), a summary statistic which describes the distribution of mutant alleles at a polymorphic site in a sample of DNA sequences and provides a highly efficient dimensional reduction of large-scale population genomic variation data. Recently, there has been much interest in analyzing the joint SFS data from multiple populations to infer parameters of complex demographic histories, including variable population sizes, population split times, migration rates, admixture proportions, and so on. SFS-based inference methods require accurate computation of the expected SFS under a given demographic model. Although much methodological progress has been made, existing methods suffer from numerical instability and high computational complexity when multiple populations are involved and the sample size is large. In this paper, we present new analytic formulas and algorithms that enable accurate, efficient computation of the expected joint SFS for thousands of individuals sampled from hundreds of populations related by a complex demographic model with arbitrary population size histories (including piecewise-exponential growth). Our results are implemented in a new software package called momi (MOran Models for Inference). Through an empirical study we demonstrate our improvements to numerical stability and computational complexity. PMID:28239248

Historical habitat connectivity affects current genetic structure in a grassland species.

PubMed

Münzbergová, Z; Cousins, S A O; Herben, T; Plačková, I; Mildén, M; Ehrlén, J

2013-01-01

Many recent studies have explored the effects of present and past landscape structure on species distribution and diversity. However, we know little about the effects of past landscape structure on distribution of genetic diversity within and between populations of a single species. Here we describe the relationship between present and past landscape structure (landscape connectivity and habitat size estimated from historical maps) and current genetic structure in a perennial herb, Succisa pratensis. We used allozymes as co-dominant markers to estimate genetic diversity and deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in 31 populations distributed within a 5 km(2) agricultural landscape. The results showed that current genetic diversity of populations was related to habitat suitability, habitat age, habitat size and habitat connectivity in the past. The effects of habitat age and past connectivity on genetic diversity were in most cases also significant after taking the current landscape structure into account. Moreover, current genetic similarity between populations was affected by past connectivity after accounting for current landscape structure. In both cases, the oldest time layer (1850) was the most informative. Most populations showed heterozygote excess, indicating disequilibrium due to recent gene flow or selection against homozygotes. These results suggest that habitat age and past connectivity are important determinants of distribution of genetic diversity between populations at a scale of a few kilometres. Landscape history may significantly contribute to our understanding of distribution of current genetic structure within species and the genetic structure may be used to better understand landscape history, even at a small scale. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Reconsideration of r/K Selection Theory Using Stochastic Control Theory and Nonlinear Structured Population Models.

PubMed

Oizumi, Ryo; Kuniya, Toshikazu; Enatsu, Yoichi

2016-01-01

Despite the fact that density effects and individual differences in life history are considered to be important for evolution, these factors lead to several difficulties in understanding the evolution of life history, especially when population sizes reach the carrying capacity. r/K selection theory explains what types of life strategies evolve in the presence of density effects and individual differences. However, the relationship between the life schedules of individuals and population size is still unclear, even if the theory can classify life strategies appropriately. To address this issue, we propose a few equations on adaptive life strategies in r/K selection where density effects are absent or present. The equations detail not only the adaptive life history but also the population dynamics. Furthermore, the equations can incorporate temporal individual differences, which are referred to as internal stochasticity. Our framework reveals that maximizing density effects is an evolutionarily stable strategy related to the carrying capacity. A significant consequence of our analysis is that adaptive strategies in both selections maximize an identical function, providing both population growth rate and carrying capacity. We apply our method to an optimal foraging problem in a semelparous species model and demonstrate that the adaptive strategy yields a lower intrinsic growth rate as well as a lower basic reproductive number than those obtained with other strategies. This study proposes that the diversity of life strategies arises due to the effects of density and internal stochasticity.

Connectivity in a pond system influences migration and genetic structure in threespine stickleback.

PubMed

Seymour, Mathew; Räsänen, Katja; Holderegger, Rolf; Kristjánsson, Bjarni K

2013-03-01

Neutral genetic structure of natural populations is primarily influenced by migration (the movement of individuals and, subsequently, their genes) and drift (the statistical chance of losing genetic diversity over time). Migration between populations is influenced by several factors, including individual behavior, physical barriers, and environmental heterogeneity among populations. However, drift is expected to be stronger in populations with low immigration rate and small effective population size. With the technological advancement in geological information systems and spatial analysis tools, landscape genetics now allows the development of realistic migration models and increased insight to important processes influencing diversity of natural populations. In this study, we investigated the relationship between landscape connectivity and genetic distance of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) inhabiting a pond complex in Belgjarskógur, Northeast Iceland. We used two landscape genetic approaches (i.e., least-cost-path and isolation-by-resistance) and asked whether gene flow, as measured by genetic distance, was more strongly associated with Euclidean distance (isolation-by-distance) or with landscape connectivity provided by areas prone to flooding (as indicated by Carex sp. cover)? We found substantial genetic structure across the study area, with pairwise genetic distances among populations (DPS) ranging from 0.118 to 0.488. Genetic distances among populations were more strongly correlated with least-cost-path and isolation-by-resistance than with Euclidean distance, whereas the relative contribution of isolation-by-resistance and Euclidian distance could not be disentangled. These results indicate that migration among stickleback populations occurs via periodically flooded areas. Overall, this study highlights the importance of transient landscape elements influencing migration and genetic structure of populations at small spatial scales.

Influence of habitat quality, population size, patch size, and connectivity on patch-occupancy dynamics of the middle spotted woodpecker.

PubMed

Robles, Hugo; Ciudad, Carlos

2012-04-01

Despite extensive research on the effects of habitat fragmentation, the ecological mechanisms underlying colonization and extinction processes are poorly known, but knowledge of these mechanisms is essential to understanding the distribution and persistence of populations in fragmented habitats. We examined these mechanisms through multiseason occupancy models that elucidated patch-occupancy dynamics of Middle Spotted Woodpeckers (Dendrocopos medius) in northwestern Spain. The number of occupied patches was relatively stable from 2000 to 2010 (15-24% of 101 patches occupied every year) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Larger and higher quality patches (i.e., higher density of oaks >37 cm dbh [diameter at breast height]) were more likely to be occupied. Habitat quality (i.e., density of large oaks) explained more variation in patch colonization and extinction than did patch size and connectivity, which were both weakly associated with probabilities of turnover. Patches of higher quality were more likely to be colonized than patches of lower quality. Populations in high-quality patches were less likely to become extinct. In addition, extinction in a patch was strongly associated with local population size but not with patch size, which means the latter may not be a good surrogate of population size in assessments of extinction probability. Our results suggest that habitat quality may be a primary driver of patch-occupancy dynamics and may increase the accuracy of models of population survival. We encourage comparisons of competing models that assess occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in a single analytical framework (e.g., dynamic occupancy models) so as to shed light on the association of habitat quality and patch geometry with colonization and extinction processes in different settings and species. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Patch size and landscape effects on density and nesting success of grassland birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winter, Maiken; Johnson, Douglas H.; Shaffer, Jill A.; Donovan, Therese M.; Svedarsky, W. Daniel

2006-01-01

Current management recommendations for grassland birds in North America emphasize providing large patches of grassland habitat within landscapes that have few forest or shrubland areas. These Bird Conservation Areas are being proposed under the assumption that large patches of habitat in treeless landscapes will maintain viable populations of grassland birds. This assumption requires that patch size and landscape features affect density and nesting success of grassland birds, and that these effects are consistent among years and regions and across focal species. However, these assumptions have not yet been validated for grassland birds, and the relative importance of local vegetation structure, patch size, and landscape composition on grassland bird populations is not well known. In addition, factors influencing grassland bird nesting success have been investigated mostly in small-scale and short-duration studies. To develop management guidelines for grassland birds, we tested the spatial and temporal repeatability of the influence of patch size and landscape composition on density and nesting success of 3 grassland passerines, after controlling for local-scale vegetation structure, climate, and—when analyzing nest success—bird density. We conducted our study during 4 years (1998–2001) in 44 study plots that were set up in 3 regions of the northern tallgrass prairie in Minnesota and North Dakota, USA. In these study plots we measured density and nesting success of clay-colored sparrows (Spizella pallida), Savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis), and bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus). Statistical models indicated that density was influenced by patch size, landscape, region, and local vegetation structure more so than by local vegetation structure alone. Both magnitude and direction of the response of density to patch size varied among regions, years, and species. In contrast, the direction of landscape effects was consistent among regions, years, and between Savannah sparrows and bobolinks. In each species, this landscape effect was independent of patch size. Nesting success was not clearly influenced by patch size or landscape composition, and none of the factors that influenced avian density also influenced nesting success in any of the 3 species. General statements on “optimal habitat” for grassland birds should therefore be viewed cautiously. Instead, long-term studies in different regions as well as a deeper understanding of the local system are needed to determine which factors are most important for grassland birds in a particular area.

How parasitism affects critical patch-size in a host-parasitoid model: application to the forest tent caterpillar.

PubMed

Cobbold, C A; Lewis, M A; Lutscher, F; Roland, J

2005-03-01

Habitat structure has broad impacts on many biological systems. In particular, habitat fragmentation can increase the probability of species extinction and on the other hand it can lead to population outbreaks in response to a decline in natural enemies. An extreme consequence of fragmentation is the isolation of small regions of suitable habitat surrounded by a large region of hostile matrix. This scenario can be interpreted as a critical patch-size problem, well studied in a continuous time framework, but relatively new to discrete time models. In this paper we present an integrodifference host-parasitoid model, discrete in time and continuous in space, to study how the critical habitat-size necessary for parasitoid survival changes in response to parasitoid life history traits, such as emergence time. We show that early emerging parasitoids may be able to persist in smaller habitats than late emerging species. The model predicts that these early emerging parasitoids lead to more severe host outbreaks. We hypothesise that promoting efficient late emerging parasitoids may be key in reducing outbreak severity, an approach requiring large continuous regions of suitable habitat. We parameterise the model for the host species of the forest tent caterpillar Malacosoma disstria Hbn., a pest insect for which fragmented landscape increases the severity of outbreaks. This host is known to have several parasitoids, due to paucity of data and as a first step in the modelling we consider a single generic parasitoid. The model findings are related to observations of the forest tent caterpillar offering insight into this host-parasitoid response to habitat structure.

Computer simulation of vasectomy for wolf control

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haight, R.G.; Mech, L.D.

1997-01-01

Recovering gray wolf (Canis lupus) populations in the Lake Superior region of the United States are prompting state management agencies to consider strategies to control population growth. In addition to wolf removal, vasectomy has been proposed. To predict the population effects of different sterilization and removal strategies, we developed a simulation model of wolf dynamics using simple rules for demography and dispersal. Simulations suggested that the effects of vasectomy and removal in a disjunct population depend largely on the degree of annual immigration. With low immigration, periodic sterilization reduced pup production and resulted in lower rates of territory recolonization. Consequently, average pack size, number of packs, and population size were significantly less than those for an untreated population. Periodically removing a proportion of the population produced roughly the same trends as did sterilization; however, more than twice as many wolves had to be removed than sterilized. With high immigration, periodic sterilization reduced pup production but not territory recolonization and produced only moderate reductions in population size relative to an untreated population. Similar reductions in population size were obtained by periodically removing large numbers of wolves. Our analysis does not address the possible effects of vasectomy on larger wolf populations, but it suggests that the subject should be considered through modeling or field testing.

Genetic structure, spatial organization, and dispersal in two populations of bat-eared foxes

PubMed Central

Kamler, Jan F; Gray, Melissa M; Oh, Annie; Macdonald, David W

2013-01-01

We incorporated radio-telemetry data with genetic analysis of bat-eared foxes (Otocyon megalotis) from individuals in 32 different groups to examine relatedness and spatial organization in two populations in South Africa that differed in density, home-range sizes, and group sizes. Kin clustering occurred only for female dyads in the high-density population. Relatedness was negatively correlated with distance only for female dyads in the high-density population, and for male and mixed-sex dyads in the low-density population. Home-range overlap of neighboring female dyads was significantly greater in the high compared to low-density population, whereas overlap within other dyads was similar between populations. Amount of home-range overlap between neighbors was positively correlated with genetic relatedness for all dyad-site combinations, except for female and male dyads in the low-density population. Foxes from all age and sex classes dispersed, although females (mostly adults) dispersed farther than males. Yearlings dispersed later in the high-density population, and overall exhibited a male-biased dispersal pattern. Our results indicated that genetic structure within populations of bat-eared foxes was sex-biased, and was interrelated to density and group sizes, as well as sex-biases in philopatry and dispersal distances. We conclude that a combination of male-biased dispersal rates, adult dispersals, and sex-biased dispersal distances likely helped to facilitate inbreeding avoidance in this evolutionarily unique species of Canidae. PMID:24101981

Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution.

PubMed

Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Visser, Marcel E; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar

2016-04-27

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size. © 2016 The Author(s).

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Derocher, Andrew E; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A

2011-02-08

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A.

2011-01-01

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40–73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55–100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22–67% and 44–100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population. PMID:21304515

Particle-Size-Grouping Model of Precipitation Kinetics in Microalloyed Steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Kun; Thomas, Brian G.

2012-03-01

The formation, growth, and size distribution of precipitates greatly affects the microstructure and properties of microalloyed steels. Computational particle-size-grouping (PSG) kinetic models based on population balances are developed to simulate precipitate particle growth resulting from collision and diffusion mechanisms. First, the generalized PSG method for collision is explained clearly and verified. Then, a new PSG method is proposed to model diffusion-controlled precipitate nucleation, growth, and coarsening with complete mass conservation and no fitting parameters. Compared with the original population-balance models, this PSG method saves significant computation and preserves enough accuracy to model a realistic range of particle sizes. Finally, the new PSG method is combined with an equilibrium phase fraction model for plain carbon steels and is applied to simulate the precipitated fraction of aluminum nitride and the size distribution of niobium carbide during isothermal aging processes. Good matches are found with experimental measurements, suggesting that the new PSG method offers a promising framework for the future development of realistic models of precipitation.

Genetic and morphological characterisation of the Ankole Longhorn cattle in the African Great Lakes region.

PubMed

Ndumu, Deo B; Baumung, Roswitha; Hanotte, Olivier; Wurzinger, Maria; Okeyo, Mwai A; Jianlin, Han; Kibogo, Harrison; Sölkner, Johann

2008-01-01

The study investigated the population structure, diversity and differentiation of almost all of the ecotypes representing the African Ankole Longhorn cattle breed on the basis of morphometric (shape and size), genotypic and spatial distance data. Twentyone morphometric measurements were used to describe the morphology of 439 individuals from 11 sub-populations located in five countries around the Great Lakes region of central and eastern Africa. Additionally, 472 individuals were genotyped using 15 DNA microsatellites. Femoral length, horn length, horn circumference, rump height, body length and fore-limb circumference showed the largest differences between regions. An overall FST index indicated that 2.7% of the total genetic variation was present among sub-populations. The least differentiation was observed between the two sub-populations of Mbarara south and Luwero in Uganda, while the highest level of differentiation was observed between the Mugamba in Burundi and Malagarasi in Tanzania. An estimated membership of four for the inferred clusters from a model-based Bayesian approach was obtained. Both analyses on distance-based and model-based methods consistently isolated the Mugamba sub-population in Burundi from the others.

Lotka-Volterra system in a random environment.

PubMed

Dimentberg, Mikhail F

2002-03-01

Classical Lotka-Volterra (LV) model for oscillatory behavior of population sizes of two interacting species (predator-prey or parasite-host pairs) is conservative. This may imply unrealistically high sensitivity of the system's behavior to environmental variations. Thus, a generalized LV model is considered with the equation for preys' reproduction containing the following additional terms: quadratic "damping" term that accounts for interspecies competition, and term with white-noise random variations of the preys' reproduction factor that simulates the environmental variations. An exact solution is obtained for the corresponding Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation for stationary probability densities (PDF's) of the population sizes. It shows that both population sizes are independent gamma-distributed stationary random processes. Increasing level of the environmental variations does not lead to extinction of the populations. However it may lead to an intermittent behavior, whereby one or both population sizes experience very rare and violent short pulses or outbreaks while remaining on a very low level most of the time. This intermittency is described analytically by direct use of the solutions for the PDF's as well as by applying theory of excursions of random functions and by predicting PDF of peaks in the predators' population size.

Lotka-Volterra system in a random environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimentberg, Mikhail F.

2002-03-01

Classical Lotka-Volterra (LV) model for oscillatory behavior of population sizes of two interacting species (predator-prey or parasite-host pairs) is conservative. This may imply unrealistically high sensitivity of the system's behavior to environmental variations. Thus, a generalized LV model is considered with the equation for preys' reproduction containing the following additional terms: quadratic ``damping'' term that accounts for interspecies competition, and term with white-noise random variations of the preys' reproduction factor that simulates the environmental variations. An exact solution is obtained for the corresponding Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation for stationary probability densities (PDF's) of the population sizes. It shows that both population sizes are independent γ-distributed stationary random processes. Increasing level of the environmental variations does not lead to extinction of the populations. However it may lead to an intermittent behavior, whereby one or both population sizes experience very rare and violent short pulses or outbreaks while remaining on a very low level most of the time. This intermittency is described analytically by direct use of the solutions for the PDF's as well as by applying theory of excursions of random functions and by predicting PDF of peaks in the predators' population size.

Dispersal leads to spatial autocorrelation in species distributions: A simulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; Krohn, W.B.; O'Connor, R.J.

2008-01-01

Compared to population growth regulated by local conditions, dispersal has been underappreciated as a central process shaping the spatial distribution of populations. This paper asks: (a) which conditions increase the importance of dispersers relative to local recruits in determining population sizes? and (b) how does dispersal influence the spatial distribution patterns of abundances among connected populations? We approached these questions with a simulation model of populations on a coupled lattice with cells of continuously varying habitat quality expressed as carrying capacities. Each cell contained a population with the basic dynamics of density-regulated growth, and was connected to other populations by immigration and emigration. The degree to which dispersal influenced the distribution of population sizes depended most strongly on the absolute amount of dispersal, and then on the potential population growth rate. Dispersal decaying in intensity with distance left close neighbours more alike in population size than distant populations, leading to an increase in spatial autocorrelation. The spatial distribution of species with low potential growth rates is more dependent on dispersal than that of species with high growth rates; therefore, distribution modelling for species with low growth rates requires particular attention to autocorrelation, and conservation management of these species requires attention to factors curtailing dispersal, such as fragmentation and dispersal barriers. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Joint Effects of Background Selection and Genetic Recombination on Local Gene Genealogies

PubMed Central

Zeng, Kai; Charlesworth, Brian

2011-01-01

Background selection, the effects of the continual removal of deleterious mutations by natural selection on variability at linked sites, is potentially a major determinant of DNA sequence variability. However, the joint effects of background selection and genetic recombination on the shape of the neutral gene genealogy have proved hard to study analytically. The only existing formula concerns the mean coalescent time for a pair of alleles, making it difficult to assess the importance of background selection from genome-wide data on sequence polymorphism. Here we develop a structured coalescent model of background selection with recombination and implement it in a computer program that efficiently generates neutral gene genealogies for an arbitrary sample size. We check the validity of the structured coalescent model against forward-in-time simulations and show that it accurately captures the effects of background selection. The model produces more accurate predictions of the mean coalescent time than the existing formula and supports the conclusion that the effect of background selection is greater in the interior of a deleterious region than at its boundaries. The level of linkage disequilibrium between sites is elevated by background selection, to an extent that is well summarized by a change in effective population size. The structured coalescent model is readily extendable to more realistic situations and should prove useful for analyzing genome-wide polymorphism data. PMID:21705759

The joint effects of background selection and genetic recombination on local gene genealogies.

PubMed

Zeng, Kai; Charlesworth, Brian

2011-09-01

Background selection, the effects of the continual removal of deleterious mutations by natural selection on variability at linked sites, is potentially a major determinant of DNA sequence variability. However, the joint effects of background selection and genetic recombination on the shape of the neutral gene genealogy have proved hard to study analytically. The only existing formula concerns the mean coalescent time for a pair of alleles, making it difficult to assess the importance of background selection from genome-wide data on sequence polymorphism. Here we develop a structured coalescent model of background selection with recombination and implement it in a computer program that efficiently generates neutral gene genealogies for an arbitrary sample size. We check the validity of the structured coalescent model against forward-in-time simulations and show that it accurately captures the effects of background selection. The model produces more accurate predictions of the mean coalescent time than the existing formula and supports the conclusion that the effect of background selection is greater in the interior of a deleterious region than at its boundaries. The level of linkage disequilibrium between sites is elevated by background selection, to an extent that is well summarized by a change in effective population size. The structured coalescent model is readily extendable to more realistic situations and should prove useful for analyzing genome-wide polymorphism data.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Can males contribute to the genetic improvement of a species?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardes, Américo T.

1997-01-01

In the time evolution of finite populations, the accumulation of harmful mutations in further generations might have lead to a temporal decay in the mean fitness of the whole population. This, in turn, would reduce the population size and so lead to its extinction. The production of genetically diverse offspring, through recombination, is a powerful mechanism in order to avoid this catastrophic route. From a selfish point of view, meiotic parthenogenesis can ensure the maintenance of better genomes, while sexual reproduction presents the risk of genome dilution. In this paper, by using Monte Carlo simulations of age-structured populations, through the Penna model, I compare the evolution of populations with different repoductive regimes. It is shown that sexual reproduction with male competition can produce better results than meiotic parthenogenesis. This contradicts results recently published, but agrees with the strong evidence that nature chose sexual reproduction instead of partenogenesis for most of the higher species.

Neutral evolution of mutational robustness

PubMed Central

van Nimwegen, Erik; Crutchfield, James P.; Huynen, Martijn

1999-01-01

We introduce and analyze a general model of a population evolving over a network of selectively neutral genotypes. We show that the population’s limit distribution on the neutral network is solely determined by the network topology and given by the principal eigenvector of the network’s adjacency matrix. Moreover, the average number of neutral mutant neighbors per individual is given by the matrix spectral radius. These results quantify the extent to which populations evolve mutational robustness—the insensitivity of the phenotype to mutations—and thus reduce genetic load. Because the average neutrality is independent of evolutionary parameters—such as mutation rate, population size, and selective advantage—one can infer global statistics of neutral network topology by using simple population data available from in vitro or in vivo evolution. Populations evolving on neutral networks of RNA secondary structures show excellent agreement with our theoretical predictions. PMID:10449760

Establishing a beachhead: A stochastic population model with an Allee effect applied to species invasion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackleh, A.S.; Allen, L.J.S.; Carter, J.

2007-01-01

We formulated a spatially explicit stochastic population model with an Allee effect in order to explore how invasive species may become established. In our model, we varied the degree of migration between local populations and used an Allee effect with variable birth and death rates. Because of the stochastic component, population sizes below the Allee effect threshold may still have a positive probability for successful invasion. The larger the network of populations, the greater the probability of an invasion occurring when initial population sizes are close to or above the Allee threshold. Furthermore, if migration rates are low, one or more than one patch may be successfully invaded, while if migration rates are high all patches are invaded. ?? 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental factors influence both abundance and genetic diversity in a widespread bird species

PubMed Central

Liu, Yang; Webber, Simone; Bowgen, Katharine; Schmaltz, Lucie; Bradley, Katharine; Halvarsson, Peter; Abdelgadir, Mohanad; Griesser, Michael

2013-01-01

Genetic diversity is one of the key evolutionary variables that correlate with population size, being of critical importance for population viability and the persistence of species. Genetic diversity can also have important ecological consequences within populations, and in turn, ecological factors may drive patterns of genetic diversity. However, the relationship between the genetic diversity of a population and how this interacts with ecological processes has so far only been investigated in a few studies. Here, we investigate the link between ecological factors, local population size, and allelic diversity, using a field study of a common bird species, the house sparrow (Passer domesticus). We studied sparrows outside the breeding season in a confined small valley dominated by dispersed farms and small-scale agriculture in southern France. Population surveys at 36 locations revealed that sparrows were more abundant in locations with high food availability. We then captured and genotyped 891 house sparrows at 10 microsatellite loci from a subset of these locations (N = 12). Population genetic analyses revealed weak genetic structure, where each locality represented a distinct substructure within the study area. We found that food availability was the main factor among others tested to influence the genetic structure between locations. These results suggest that ecological factors can have strong impacts on both population size per se and intrapopulation genetic variation even at a small scale. On a more general level, our data indicate that a patchy environment and low dispersal rate can result in fine-scale patterns of genetic diversity. Given the importance of genetic diversity for population viability, combining ecological and genetic data can help to identify factors limiting population size and determine the conservation potential of populations. PMID:24363897

Stable Regulation of Cell Cycle Events in Mycobacteria: Insights From Inherently Heterogeneous Bacterial Populations.

PubMed

Logsdon, Michelle M; Aldridge, Bree B

2018-01-01

Model bacteria, such as E. coli and B. subtilis , tightly regulate cell cycle progression to achieve consistent cell size distributions and replication dynamics. Many of the hallmark features of these model bacteria, including lateral cell wall elongation and symmetric growth and division, do not occur in mycobacteria. Instead, mycobacterial growth is characterized by asymmetric polar growth and division. This innate asymmetry creates unequal birth sizes and growth rates for daughter cells with each division, generating a phenotypically heterogeneous population. Although the asymmetric growth patterns of mycobacteria lead to a larger variation in birth size than typically seen in model bacterial populations, the cell size distribution is stable over time. Here, we review the cellular mechanisms of growth, division, and cell cycle progression in mycobacteria in the face of asymmetry and inherent heterogeneity. These processes coalesce to control cell size. Although Mycobacterium smegmatis and Mycobacterium bovis Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) utilize a novel model of cell size control, they are similar to previously studied bacteria in that initiation of DNA replication is a key checkpoint for cell division. We compare the regulation of DNA replication initiation and strategies used for cell size homeostasis in mycobacteria and model bacteria. Finally, we review the importance of cellular organization and chromosome segregation relating to the physiology of mycobacteria and consider how new frameworks could be applied across the wide spectrum of bacterial diversity.

Decline in top predator body size and changing climate alter trophic structure in an oceanic ecosystem.

PubMed

Shackell, Nancy L; Frank, Kenneth T; Fisher, Jonathan A D; Petrie, Brian; Leggett, William C

2010-05-07

Globally, overfishing large-bodied groundfish populations has resulted in substantial increases in their prey populations. Where it has been examined, the effects of overfishing have cascaded down the food chain. In an intensively fished area on the western Scotian Shelf, Northwest Atlantic, the biomass of prey species increased exponentially (doubling time of 11 years) even though the aggregate biomass of their predators remained stable over 38 years. Concomitant reductions in herbivorous zooplankton and increases in phytoplankton were also evident. This anomalous trophic pattern led us to examine how declines in predator body size (approx. 60% in body mass since the early 1970s) and climatic regime influenced lower trophic levels. The increase in prey biomass was associated primarily with declines in predator body size and secondarily to an increase in stratification. Sea surface temperature and predator biomass had no influence. A regression model explained 65 per cent of prey biomass variability. Trait-mediated effects, namely a reduction in predator size, resulted in a weakening of top predation pressure. Increased stratification may have enhanced growing conditions for prey fish. Size-selective harvesting under changing climatic conditions initiated a trophic restructuring of the food chain, the effects of which may have influenced three trophic levels.

Three Essays In and Tests of Theoretical Urban Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Weihua

This dissertation consists of three essays on urban economics. The three essays are related to urban spatial structure change, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and housing redevelopment. Chapter 1 answers the question: Does the classic Standard Urban Model still describe the growth of cities? Chapter 2 derives the implications of telework on urban spatial structure, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions. Chapter 3 investigates the long run effects of minimum lot size zoning on neighborhood redevelopment. Chapter 1 identifies a new implication of the classic Standard Urban Model, the "unitary elasticity property (UEP)", which is the sum of the elasticity of central density and the elasticity of land area with respect to population change is approximately equal to unity. When this implication of the SUM is tested, it fits US cities fairly well. Further analysis demonstrates that topographic barriers and age of housing stock are the key factors explaining deviation from the UEP. Chapter 2 develops a numerical urban simulation model with households that are able to telework to investigate the urban form, congestion, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission implications of telework. Simulation results suggest that by reducing transportation costs, telework causes sprawl, with associated longer commutes and consumption of larger homes, both of which increase energy consumption. Overall effects depend on who captures the gains from telework (workers versus firms), urban land use regulation such as height limits or greenbelts, and the fraction of workers participating in telework. The net effects of telework on energy use and GHG emissions are generally negligible. Chapter 3 applies dynamic programming to investigate the long run effects of minimum lot size zoning on neighborhood redevelopment. With numerical simulation, comparative dynamic results show that minimum lot size zoning can delay initial land conversion and slow down demolition and housing redevelopment. Initially, minimum lot size zoning is not binding. However, as city grows, it becomes binding and can effectively distort housing supply. It can lower both floor area ratio and residential density, and reduce aggregate housing supply. Overall, minimum lot size zoning can stabilize the path of structure/land ratios, housing service levels, structure density, and housing prices. In addition, minimum lot size zoning provides more incentive for developer to maintain the building, slow structure deterioration, and raise the minimum level of housing services provided over the life cycle of development.

Change-in-ratio methods for estimating population size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; McCullough, Dale R.; Barrett, Reginald H.

2002-01-01

Change-in-ratio (CIR) methods can provide an effective, low cost approach for estimating the size of wildlife populations. They rely on being able to observe changes in proportions of population subclasses that result from the removal of a known number of individuals from the population. These methods were first introduced in the 1940’s to estimate the size of populations with 2 subclasses under the assumption of equal subclass encounter probabilities. Over the next 40 years, closed population CIR models were developed to consider additional subclasses and use additional sampling periods. Models with assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary over time, rather than between subclasses, also received some attention. Recently, all of these CIR models have been shown to be special cases of a more general model. Under the general model, information from additional samples can be used to test assumptions about the encounter probabilities and to provide estimates of subclass sizes under relaxations of these assumptions. These developments have greatly extended the applicability of the methods. CIR methods are attractive because they do not require the marking of individuals, and subclass proportions often can be estimated with relatively simple sampling procedures. However, CIR methods require a carefully monitored removal of individuals from the population, and the estimates will be of poor quality unless the removals induce substantial changes in subclass proportions. In this paper, we review the state of the art for closed population estimation with CIR methods. Our emphasis is on the assumptions of CIR methods and on identifying situations where these methods are likely to be effective. We also identify some important areas for future CIR research.

A Three-Stage Colonization Model for the Peopling of the Americas

PubMed Central

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M.; Mulligan, Connie J.

2008-01-01

Background We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Methodology/Findings Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth ≈40,000 and ≈15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting ≈15,000 years ago. Conclusions/Significance These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas ≈15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of ≈1,000–5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods. PMID:18270583

Development of a transition pathway model using three traditional variables to describe the main structural characteristics of a forest stand type, size, and density

Treesearch

Chad Larson

2006-01-01

The Central Hardwood Region is a unique forest region in the United States, encompassing 340 million acres of land, of which 100 million acres are forested (Parker 1993). The region contains one-fourth of the U.S. population, with approximately 90 percent of the land in private ownership (Parker 1993). In general, private forested lands in the Central Hardwood Region...

A Finite Difference Approximation for a Coupled System of Nonlinear Size-Structured Populations

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-01-01

are available. For a classical Lotka - Volterra competition model which is represented by a system of N di erential equations, conditions on the growth...Methods Appl. Sci., 9 (1999), 1379-1391. [5] S. Ahmed, Extinction of Species in Nonautonomous Lotka - Volterra Systems, Proc. Amer. Math. Soc., 127 (1999...Walter DeGruyter, Berlin, 1995. [7] S. Ahmed and F. Montes de Oca, Extinction in Nonautonomous T -periodic Lotka - Volterra System, Appl. Math. Comput

Patchy reaction-diffusion and population abundance: the relative importance of habitat amount and arrangement

Treesearch

Curtis H. Flather; Michael Bevers

2002-01-01

A discrete reaction-diffusion model was used to estimate long-term equilibrium populations of a hypothetical species inhabiting patchy landscapes to examine the relative importance of habitat amount and arrangement in explaining population size. When examined over a broad range of habitat amounts and arrangements, population size was largely determined by a pure amount...

Size matters: insights from an allometric approach to evaluate control methods for invasive Australian Rhinella marina.

PubMed

Beaty, Lynne E; Salice, Christopher J

2013-10-01

Invasive species are costly and difficult to control. In order to gain a mechanistic understanding of potential control measures, individual-based models uniquely parameterized to reflect the salient life-history characteristics of invasive species are useful. Using invasive Australian Rhinella marina as a case study, we constructed a cohort- and individual-based population simulation that incorporates growth and body size of terrestrial stages. We used this allometric approach to examine the efficacy of nontraditional control methods (i.e., tadpole alarm chemicals and native meat ants) that may have indirect effects on population dynamics mediated by effects on body size. We compared population estimates resulting from these control methods with traditional hand removal. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect that model parameters, specifically those associated with growth and body size, had on adult population estimates. Incremental increases in hand removal of adults and juveniles caused nonlinear decreases in adult population estimates, suggesting less return with increased investment in hand-removal efforts. Applying tadpole alarm chemicals or meat ants decreased adult population estimates on the same level as removing 15-25% of adults and juveniles by hand. The combined application of tadpole alarm chemicals and meat ants resulted in approximately 80% decrease in adult abundance, the largest of any applied control method. In further support of the nontraditional control methods, which greatly affected the metamorph stage, our model was most sensitive to changes in metamorph survival, juvenile survival, metamorph growth rate, and adult survival. Our results highlight the use and insights that can be gained from individual-based models that incorporate growth and body size and the potential success that nontraditional control methods could have in controlling established, invasive Rhinella marina populations.

Understanding the genetic effects of recent habitat fragmentation in the context of evolutionary history: Phylogeography and landscape genetics of a southern California endemic Jerusalem cricket (Orthoptera: Stenopelmatidae: Stenopelmatus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandergast, A.G.; Bohonak, A.J.; Weissman, D.B.; Fisher, R.N.

2007-01-01

Habitat loss and fragmentation due to urbanization are the most pervasive threats to biodiversity in southern California. Loss of habitat and fragmentation can lower migration rates and genetic connectivity among remaining populations of native species, reducing genetic variability and increasing extinction risk. However, it may be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric fragmentation due to previous natural geological and climatic changes. To address these challenges, we examined the phylogenetic and population genetic structure of a flightless insect endemic to cismontane southern California, Stenopelmatus 'mahogani' (Orthoptera: Stenopelmatidae). Analyses of mitochondrial DNA sequence data suggest that diversification across southern California began during the Pleistocene, with most haplotypes currently restricted to a single population. Patterns of genetic divergence correlate with contemporary urbanization, even after correcting for (geographical information system) GIS-based reconstructions of fragmentation during the Pleistocene. Theoretical simulations confirm that contemporary patterns of genetic structure could be produced by recent urban fragmentation using biologically reasonable assumptions about model parameters. Diversity within populations was positively correlated with current fragment size, but not prehistoric fragment size, suggesting that the effects of increased drift following anthropogenic fragmentation are already being seen. Loss of genetic connectivity and diversity can hinder a population's ability to adapt to ecological perturbations commonly associated with urbanization, such as habitat degradation, climatic changes and introduced species. Consequently, our results underscore the importance of preserving and restoring landscape connectivity for long-term persistence of low vagility native species. Journal compilation ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Methods to estimate effective population size using pedigree data: Examples in dog, sheep, cattle and horse

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Effective population sizes of 140 populations (including 60 dog breeds, 40 sheep breeds, 20 cattle breeds and 20 horse breeds) were computed using pedigree information and six different computation methods. Simple demographical information (number of breeding males and females), variance of progeny size, or evolution of identity by descent probabilities based on coancestry or inbreeding were used as well as identity by descent rate between two successive generations or individual identity by descent rate. Results Depending on breed and method, effective population sizes ranged from 15 to 133 056, computation method and interaction between computation method and species showing a significant effect on effective population size (P < 0.0001). On average, methods based on number of breeding males and females and variance of progeny size produced larger values (4425 and 356, respectively), than those based on identity by descent probabilities (average values between 93 and 203). Since breeding practices and genetic substructure within dog breeds increased inbreeding, methods taking into account the evolution of inbreeding produced lower effective population sizes than those taking into account evolution of coancestry. The correlation level between the simplest method (number of breeding males and females, requiring no genealogical information) and the most sophisticated one ranged from 0.44 to 0.60 according to species. Conclusions When choosing a method to compute effective population size, particular attention should be paid to the species and the specific genetic structure of the population studied. PMID:23281913

Psychology and Population: An Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fawcett, James T.

Psychology and Population is defined as the study of individual dispositions and behavior that affect the size, structure and dispersion of the population, and the way in which acts of individuals enter into the dynamics of population change. Even this definition was viewed as inadequate, ignoring, as it does, the reciprocal effect of population…

Effect of population growth on changes in the agrarian structure of rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Chaudhury, R H

1981-01-01

The author examines available information on the effect of population growth on the agrarian structure of Bangladesh. Trends and patterns of land distribution over time are reviewed. The effects of changes in land distribution on productivity are investigated, and the relationship between family size and land ownership is analyzed.

Relationships between nesting populations of wading birds and habitat features along the Atlantic Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erwin, R.M.; Spendelow, J.A.; Geissler, P.H.; Williams, B.K.; Whitman, William R.; Meredith, William H.

1987-01-01

Using previously published atlas data for 122 mixed-species wading bird colonies on islands along the Atlantic coast (Maine to Florida, 1976-77), we examined relationships between population sizes of 11 species of egrets, herons, ibises, and wood storks (Mycteria americana) and nine habitat variables. On nautical charts, we measured four island characteristics (area, length, width, shape), three isolation factors (distances to nearest island, mainland, and a water barrier),, and two variables related to potential feeding habitat within 5 km of the center of the colony (wetland area and land-water interface, i.e., the linear distance between the marsh/upland and all water bodies within the same 5-km radius). One univariable and five multivariable .procedures were used to determine which habitat features were best related to population size .(all species combined). Multicollinearity problems among the variables limited interpretation for most procedures. Both univariable and the multivariable procedures indicated that land-water interface was the most important of the nine variables, but for all models, less than 10% of the total variance was explained (rz is less than 0.10). The size of the colony was not related to the amount of wetland area (within 5-km).per se. Colony data showed better 'structure' when examined on the basis of geographic and disturbance gradients. Population sizes of colonies near man-altered habitats were compared with those surrounded by relatively natural habitats in three geographic zones: north, middle, and south. Significant differences were found in colony size among the three zones (south largest) and between disturbance types. Surprisingly, in all three zones, colonies near man-altered areas were larger on average than those near more natural habitats in this region. A possible reason for this difference is suggested.